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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Maxim Grishin
5th UFC Fight (2-2)This fight had been booked last October but Lins dropped out the day of the event after the slate had already locked. Since he last competed, Grishin had also been scheduled to fight Jailton Almeida twice but withdrew both times and now hasn’t stepped inside the Octagon since early 2022.
Coming off a decision win over William Knight, who amazingly missed weight by 12 lb causing the match to be moved to Heavyweight from Light Heavyweight, Grishin has alternated wins and losses over the course of his four fight UFC career. Four of his last five fights have gone the distance (1-2-1) and Grishin hasn’t been finished since suffering a 2016 R4 KO loss to Magomed Ankalaev. Grishin’s only early win in the last three years came in a R2 KO over Gadzhimurad Antigulov, who hasn’t required the judges in his last 12 fights, got cut following the loss to Grishin, and has lost five of his last six matches. In his tough July 2020 UFC debut, Grishin stepped in on short notice and up a weight class as he gave up 29 pounds to his Heavyweight opponent Marcin Tybura. He was clearly undersized for the Heavyweight division at just 223 lb and Tybura took full advantage of the size difference as he pushed Grishin up against the cage for the majority of the fight. Grishin returned to Light Heavyweight following the loss. His only UFC Light Heavyweight loss came in a close decision against Dustin Jacoby in his second most recent fight.
Now 32-9-2 as a pro, Grishin has 16 KO wins, six submissions, and 10 decisions. Of his 16 KO wins, 11 have ended in round one, two ended in round two, and three finished in round three. He’s been knocked out three times, has three submission losses, and three decision defeats. The only time he’s been finished since 2011 came in the 4th round of a 2016 fight against a really dangerous Magomed Ankalaev.
Overall, Grishin is now 39 years old and came into the UFC very late in his career. He’s a Master of Sport in Hand-to-Hand Combat, but is a slower paced fighter who averages just 3.40 SSL/min and 2.07 SSA/min. While 7 of his last 17 fights have ended early (6-1), only two of those finishes occurred in the first round and eight of his last nine matches have seen the second round. Grishin has only landed one takedown on three attempts in his four UFC fights (33.3% accuracy), while he’s been taken down 7 times on 21 attempts by his opponents (66.7% defense). Three of the times he was taken down came up at Heavyweight in his UFC debut, and three more came in his last fight, which was also moved up to Heavyweight at the last minute. He’s only been taken down once at Light Heavyweight in the UFC.
Philipe Lins
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Lins had been scheduled to face Maxim Grishin last October and everything looked normal until Lins dropped out after the slate had already started. Dropping out of fights has been an ongoing problem for Lins and after losing his first two UFC fights at Heavyweight, Lins had six straight fights canceled and then he dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his last match when he won a decision over Marcin Prachnio. After winning a million dollars in the PFL Heavyweight tournament, Lins was signed to the UFC and took on Andrei Arlovski in his May 2020 debut. Arlovski outlanded his way to a low-volume decision win as he led in significant strikes 50-41. Next, Lins took on Tanner Boser and got knocked out midway through the first round, as Boser led 15-6 in significant strikes. Lins then didn’t fight again for 22 months leading up to his win over Prachnio. Lins looked to wrestle for the first time in the UFC in that fight, as he landed four takedowns on 11 attempts after not attempting a takedown in his first two UFC fights up at Heavyweight. Following a slower paced first round, Lins came out aggressive in round two and had Prachnio hurt on the feet. However, Prachnio was able to survive and then the two guys spent an extended period of time pushing each other up against the cage until Lins eventually secured a unanimous 29-28 decision win on the mat with three takedowns and three minutes of control time in round three. Lines then dropped out against Grishin in October 2022, before getting paired up against OSP in December. Once again Lins dropped out, but the UFC put that fight back together and Lins knocked out the corpse of OSP in just 49 seconds in February of this year.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Lins has nine wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision wins. Six of his knockout wins ended in round two, two ended in round one, and another ended in round four. All four of his submission wins occurred in round one. He’s been knocked out in four of his five career losses, with the other ending in a decision. Three of those KO losses came in round one, with the other ending in round two. While two of his four UFC fights have gone the distance, 13 of his last 15 have ended early and 16 of his 21 pro fights have ended in the first two rounds (12-4). Lins started his career at Light Heavyweight, before moving up to Heavyweight in 2018 following two straight KO losses at Light Heavyweight. Of Lins’ four KO losses, one came in his last UFC Heavyweight fight, where he got knocked out in the first round, while the other three occurred at Light Heavyweight from 2014 to 2017. He’s coming off his first early win since 2018.
Overall, Lins is a BJJ black belt with four first round submission wins on his record, but has only landed one submission since 2014, which came in a 2018 R1 guillotine choke. After not attempting a takedown in his two Heavyweight fights, Lins went 4 for 11 on takedowns in his second most recent fight, so it will be interesting to see how much he looks to grapple moving forward. He only averages 3.85 SSL/min and has yet to top 64 significant strikes landed in a UFC fight, but came out ultra aggressively in his last match. It will be interesting to see if that was an opponent specific game plan or if he intends to push the pace more moving forward.
Fight Prediction:
Grishin will have a 1” height advantage but both fighters share a 78” reach. Lins is two years younger than the 39-year-old Grishin.
Lins has been a weird fighter to try and figure out. He couldn’t beat Arlovski in his UFC debut and then got starched by Boser, while he was also unable to finish a fragile Marcin Prachnio. However, he came out crazily aggressive in his last fight like OSP had just run over his dog. So who knows what his approach will be here, but we think grishin has more left in the tank than OSP and if Lins once again comes out recklessly he could end up getting knocked out. Lins has also been sporadic with his wrestling, but Grishin has been a tough guy to take down at Light Heavyweight and is pretty well-rounded. We never even know if Lins will actually show up for fights based on his track record of dropping out, but if he does, we lean that Grishin knocks him out here, most likely in the second round. It’s also possible that Grishin simply outlasts him in a lower volume decision, and either way we’re taking Grishin to win, even if his age is slightly concerning.
Our favorite bet here is Grishin’s ML at -130.
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DFS Implications:
Grishin is a patient low-volume counter striker, who appears generally reliant on finishes to score well. He landed just 18 significant strikes across 15 minutes of inaction in his ill-fated UFC debut at Heavyweight, and then landed just 34 significant strikes on his way to a late second round TKO in his second UFC fight. Even with a favorable late R2 KO, he still scored just 99 DraftKings points. He then lost a decision and despite landing two knockdowns he scored just 51 DraftKings points, so even if it had gone his way he still would have scored just 81. Unless he puts on a completely dominating grappling performance, it’s hard to see Grishin returning value without a finish at his high price tag. Working in his favor, Lins has been knocked out in the first two rounds in four of his five career losses and 16 of Grishin’s 32 career wins have come by knockout. Grishin was only 10% owned on DraftKings in his last match and after scoring just 66 DraftKings points in a decision win, we’d be surprised if was a popular play here. That makes him an interesting tournament option, just keep in mind he likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to be useful. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Lins is coming off a 49 second R1 knockout win that was good for 132 DraftKings points after scoring 92 points in a decision victory just before that. Normally we would expect that to drive his ownership way up, but with the two massively mispriced favorites on this slate it’s hard to see any of the other underdogs being overly popular. Lins’ recent scoring explosion came against the corpse of OSP, after he won a decision against a terrible Marcin Prachnio. We’ve yet to see Lins beat anyone decent in the UFC and while Grishin is 39 years old, he’s still been very durable and powerful. We also see Grishin slow fights down, which will make it tougher for either guy to score well in a decision. The only time Grishin has been finished since 2011 came in the 4th round of a 2016 fight against a really dangerous Magomed Ankalaev, which isn’t encouraging for Lins’ chances of finding a finish here. However, he showed in his last fight that he does have massive upside when properly motivated and it’s always possible Grishin has gone off a cliff at this stage in his career. The odds imply Lins has a 45% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Luan Lacerda
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Lacerda is coming off a close decision loss to a really tough Cody Stamann in his recent UFC debut after winning 10 straight fights before that, with the last six of those ending in submissions in the first two rounds, including five in round two. Lacerda tried to take Stamann down four times, but was only able to land one of those attempts and got outlanded on the feet.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Lacerda has 10 submission victories and two decision wins. Only one of those submissions ended in round one, while seven came in round two and two in round three. The only time he’s ever been finished was in 2014 R1 submission in his third pro fight, with his only other loss coming in his recent decision defeat in his UFC debut.
Overall, the 30-year-old BJJ black belt Lacerda is a jiu-jitsu specialist who trains with Jose Aldo. He’s got a kick-heavy Muay Thai style of striking, but he pays the bills on the mat, where he’ll relentlessly hunt for submissions from all positions. We didn’t get to see much of his ground game in his debut as Cody Stamann worked to keep the fight standing at all costs and had the wrestling base to successfully do so for the most part. Now Lacerda will face a fellow one-dimensional grappler who should be more willing to play on mat with him and who lacks the takedown defense to keep it standing even if he wanted to.
Da'Mon Blackshear
3rd UFC Fight (0-1-1)Still searching for his first UFC win, Blackshear is coming off a decision loss to Farid Basharat where he got taken down three times and controlled for five and a half minutes. Prior to that, he fought to a draw in his short notice UFC debut against Youssef Zalal. Leading up to that debut he won four straight fights, with three of those ending in submissions.
Now 12-5-1 as a pro, Blackshear has one win by TKO (R2 2018), eight submissions, and three decision victories. All five of his losses have gone the distance, with one of those notably coming against UFC fighter Pat Sabatini and another against former UFC fighter Kris Moutinho. Despite nine of Blackshear’s 12 pro wins coming early, all but one of his 18 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with 12 making it to round three, and nine going the distance. He has one first round submission win, four in round two, two in round three, and one in round four. Blackshear has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb, with five of his earlier career matches up at 145 lb. However, he hasn’t fought at 145 lb since losing a 2018 decision to Pat Sabatini.
Overall, Blackshear is a BJJ black belt and a former high school wrestler who relies very heavily on his grappling. He scrambles well on the mat and does a good job of transitioning and looking for submissions from a variety of positions. Most of his fights end up playing out as grappling battles, with five of his last six wins ending in submissions. We saw him get exposed on the feet in the third round of his debut against a not very dangerous opponent in Zalal, who fought to seven straight decisions in the UFC before being cut. That leaves us concerned with how Blackshear will do in striking exchanges moving forward at the UFC level. Blackshear had been training at Jackson Wink in New Mexico, but recently left the gym and moved to Miami to look for a new home. He said he’s been bouncing around different places and it sounds like he hasn’t fully committed to his new home yet, which means his coaching staff is sort of up in the air.
Fight Prediction:
Blackshear will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
These two are pretty similar stylistically as they’re both one-dimensional strikers, but Lacerda looks better everywhere. Blackshear is too comfortable relying on his jiu-jitsu to win fights, which leaves him as a one-dimensional submission threat. That lack of diversity in his game makes it easy for opponents to plan for him and this is a terrible matchup for him to find the submission he needs to win as he faces a fellow BJJ black belt. It won’t be shocking if their jiu-jitsu cancels eachother out and Lacerda ultimately wins a decision, but if anyone is getting a finish we think it’s Lacerda. Either way, we really like Lacerda to notch his first UFC win here.
Our favorite bet here is Lacerda’s ML at -150.
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DFS Implications:
Lacerda only scored 41 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his recent UFC debut, but was never able to get his grappling going in that really tough matchup so it’s no surprise that he wouldn’t have scored well even if the decision had gone his way. His grappling-heavy style has the potential to score decently on DraftKings even without a finish. However, to really score on DraftKings or to be at all useful on FanDuel he’ll need to find a finish and Blackshear has notably never been finished in his career and is also a BJJ black belt. So this isn’t a great spot for Lacerda to lock up a submission, but we’re also not ruling it out. Since we didn’t get to see much of his ground game in his UFC debut, it’s hard to know exactly how it will stack up at the UFC level but we expect to see a lot more grappling here. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Blackshear is coming off a decision loss in his last fight that scored 42 DraftKings points, after fighting to a draw in his UFC debut that was only good for 35 points. So he’s yet to show any upside and looks like a submission or bust option in a really tough matchup. If the UFC really wanted him to succeed they wouldn’t keep pairing him up with other solid grapplers, so it doesn’t seem like they have any desire to build him up. Blackshear just left his team at Jackson Wink and has an uncertain coaching situation around him, which isn’t ideal as he faces a dangerous opponent who could capitalize with a finish on any misstep Blackshear makes on the mat. That leaves Blackshear with a non-existent floor and an unexciting ceiling. The only things he has going for him are his cheap price tag and his low ownership, but even with that we’re not very excited about clicking his name in this spot. The odds imply he has a 42% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Elise Reed
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Continuing to trade wins and losses, Reed will be looking to bounce back from a second round submission loss to Loma Lookboonmee. Prior to that, Reed won a decision over a debuting Melissa Martinez to keep her job in the UFC. Looking back one fight further, Reed got finished on the mat with ground and pound in the third round by Sam Hughes, after winning a split-decision over Cory McKenna and getting finished in the first round of her short notice UFC debut against Sijara Eubanks (in a fight that Reed took up a weight class). Prior to joining the UFC, Reed won all four of her pro fights.
Now 6-3 as a pro, Reed has two wins by TKO and four decisions. She’s been finished on the mat in all three of her losses, twice with ground and pound, and once by submission. Two of her four decisions have been split. Reed actually made her 2019 pro debut at Atomweight (105 lb), before moving up to 115 lb in 2020.
With a Taekwondo background, Reed is a one-dimensional striker, but showed some improvements to her wrestling in her second most recent fight. Reed never even attempted a takedown in her first three UFC fights, but landed all three of her attempts in that match, although then didn’t attempt a takedown in her last fight. She’s been taken down by her opponents 11 times on 21 attempts (47.6% defense), which has been her biggest weakness to this point. All five of her UFC opponents have taken her down at least once.
Jinh Yu Frey
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Now 38 years old and coming off a 47 second R1 KO loss to a grappler in Polyana Viana, it’s unclear how much Frey has left in her. That’s the third time she’s been knocked out in her career and it could be a sign the end is near. Prior to that, she lost a questionable split-decision to Vanessa Demopoulos and had gone the distance in four straight fights (2-2), after getting submitted via armbar in the third round of her 2020 short notice UFC debut against Kay Hansen. Frey’s only two UFC wins came against a one-dimensional striker in Gloria de Paula, where Frey was able to win the fight with her wrestling, and a one-dimensional grappler in Ashley Yoder, where Frey was able to keep the fight standing and win a striking battle. So she’s shown she can strike against grapplers and grappler against strikers and is generally looking to attack her opponents’ weaknesses.
Now 11-8 as a pro, Frey has one win by KO, two by submission, and eight decisions. She’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has four decision defeats. Her last eight wins have all gone the distance and all three of her early wins occurred in the first round of her first four pro fights. After fighting her entire pre-UFC career at 105 lb, Frey was forced to move up to 115 lb when she joined the UFC in June 2020, so it makes sense that she required an adjustment period as she grew into the new weight class.
Overall, Frey is a decently well rounded decision grinder, who has shown improvements since joining the UFC, but is now getting up there in age. While she’s not any sort of finishing threat, she has decent boxing and a really solid 88.9% takedown defense, as she’s only been taken down three times on 27 opponent attempts. She has faced three straight grapplers, and they combined to land just one of their 15 attempts in those matches. On the other side of things, Frey has landed three of her own takedowns on nine attempts (33.3% accuracy), but is generally only looking to take down strikers. She has a masters degree and tends to fight smart, attacking her opponents’ weaknesses and avoiding their strengths. That was evident when she came in with a grappling heavy game plan against one-dimensional striker Gloria de Paula, followed by a pure striking game plan against one-dimensional grappler Ashley Yoder. She’ll face a one-dimensional striker here and we’d be very surprised if Frey didn’t look to grapple and show off her newly awarded BJJ brown belt.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’3” but Frey will have a 2” reach advantage, while Reed is eight years younger than the 38-year-old Frey.
It’s no secret that Reed is terrible on the mat or that Frey is old and just got knocked out, but has shown a high fight IQ and the willingness to grapple in the right matchup. Reed should be trying to keep the fight standing at all costs to test the chin of Frey, while Frey should be doing just the opposite as she looks to capitalize on Reed’s non-existent ground game. The concern for Frey is that she hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat, so she’ll need to fight the perfect fight and land takedowns in every round to grind out a decision win. While Reed hasn’t finished anybody in the UFC, she does have decent power and Frey’s chin could be fading. So Reed doesn’t need to have the perfect fight to knock Frey out, she just needs to land the perfect shot. Frey could control her for a round or two and Reed could still catch her late and end things in one blow. That leaves a much smaller margin of error for Frey than Reed, although we’re definitely not saying Reed is a lock to knock her out if she lands anything, just that she could. The most likely outcome is still for this fight to go the distance and simply hinge on whether or not Frey can win two rounds on the mat, but we do kind of like Reed’s chances of landing a knockout, especially if Frey’s chin is compromised. We’ll go out on a limb and say Reed wins by KO in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Reed KO” at +400.
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DFS Implications:
Reed is a one-dimensional striker with a Taekwondo background who has really struggled off her back, getting finished on the mat in all three of her UFC losses, while going the distance in both of her wins. She did land the first takedowns (3) of her career in her last win, along with a knockdown, but still only scored 82 DraftKings points in the decision victory. A big issue for her is that her grappling is so terrible she’s forced to be more cautious with her entries or else she risks overextending and getting taken down. And when she has gotten overly aggressive, that’s exactly what has happened, which ultimately led to her getting submitted in her last fight. She’s never said she needs to be more patient looking for entries, which isn’t what you want to hear for DFS. That leaves her reliant on landing a finish to score well, something she hasn’t done since her fourth pro fight, before she joined the UFC. Working in her favor, Frey is 38 years old and has been knocked out three times in the first two rounds, including a 47 second loss in her last fight. Reed has also been 16% or less owned on DraftKings in all four of her UFC fights, adding to her tournament appeal. The odds imply she has a 55% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Frey has given us no indication she can score well in DFS, with DraftKings totals of just 65 and 72 in her two decision wins and just 29 and 23 in her two decision losses. She hasn’t finished anybody since 2014 in her fourth pro fight and is now 38 years old and coming off a 47 second R1 KO loss. Working in her favor, she’s going against a one-dimensional striker who’s been finished on the mat in all three of her UFC losses. However, the one time we did see Frey execute a wrestling-heavy gameplan, she still only scored 72 DraftKings points. It’s hard to see that being enough for her to be useful on a slate with so much value, so Frey appears to need a finish to crack tournament winning lineups. Adding to her appeal, she’s always low owned, and we expect that to continue here. The odds imply she has a 45% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Jamie Mullarkey
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Mullarkey had been scheduled to fight Guram Kutateladze as a +260 underdog, but Kutateladze dropped out and Naimov was announced as the replacement on Monday.
Coming off an uncharacteristically slower paced decision win, Mullarkey handed a debuting Francisco Prado the first loss of his career. In fairness to Mullarkey, not only was Prado undefeated, but he also had a 100% finishing rate, so Mullarkey was smart to take a more tactful approach. Mullarkey doubled Prado up in striking, while also landing three takedowns with nearly five minutes of control time. Prior to that, Mullarkey won a close split-decision over Michael Johnson after getting knocked out in the second round by a surging Jalin Turner just before that. After starting out 0-2 in the UFC, Mullarkey has won four of his last five fights and just before his loss to Turner, Mullarkey knocked out both Devonte Smith and Khama Worthy. Prior to the pair of early wins, Mullarkey lost decisions to Brad Riddell and Fares Ziam in his first two UFC fights, but he arguably should have gotten the nod against Ziam.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Mullarkey has 10 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. Five of those knockouts ended in round one, three came in round two, and two ended in round three. However, three of his last four finishes ended in round two. He’s been knocked out three times and has two decision losses. One of those KO losses notably came against Alexander Volkanovski before they joined the UFC. While Mullarkey’s last two wins both went the distance, his previous 12 victories all ended early. His last six finishes all ended in knockouts, with his three submission wins all occurring early in his career in 2014 and 2015. Mullarkey competed at 145 lb until 2018, when he moved up to 155 lb.
Overall, Mullarkey is a well-rounded fighter and a BJJ black belt but has fallen in love with his striking and hasn’t submitted anybody since 2015. In his seven UFC fights, Mullarkey has landed 13 takedowns on 37 attempts (35.1% accuracy), while getting taken down himself on 3 of 11 opponent attempts (72.7% defense). He’s shown the ability to take a beating and keep on going, but also demonstrated a higher fight IQ for the first time in his recent slower paced decision win. He’s still just 28 years old and should be continuing to make improvements as he trains with Alexander Volkanovski. After facing several really tough opponents, Mullarkey will now get the easiest opponent he’s faced since joining the UFC.
Muhammad Naimov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice, Naimov originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2020, but lost a decision against a terrible Collin Anglin, who has since gone 0-4 with three of those losses coming early. Following that loss, Naimov dropped a five-round decision with Titan FC, before landing a first round submission against an opponent who came in with a losing record (5-6-1), also with Titan FC. Naimov then joined the ultra prestigious Tuff-N-Uff organization, where he won a split decision before most recently notching a 34 second R1 KO that started with a head kick and finished with ground and pound.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Naimov has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision wins. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance. However, take his record with a grain of salt as he hasn’t fought any legitimate competition and he hasn’t even looked good against lower level opponents. Naimov’s entire career has been spent at 145 lb up to this point, but now he’ll be making his debut at 155 lb.
Overall, Naimov has done nothing to impress us from what we’ve seen from him. He failed to land any of his four takedowns on DWCS, while an extremely suspect Collin Anglin was able to take him down three times on four attempts. Anglin nearly finished Naimov in that match and even at 145 lb Naimov looked small. Now he’ll be dwarfed at 155 lb, and we fully expect him to move back down to 145 lb following the upcoming massacre. If someone made a meme of all the new Tajikistan fighters, Naimov would be the clown in line with the other soldiers. He looks hittable on the feet, bad on the mat, and the fact that he’s never been finished speaks to the level of competition he’s been facing. The UFC was desperate to find Mullarkey a replacement after he flew across the world to fight and Naimov was simply at the right place at the right time to serve as a sacrificial lamb.
Fight Prediction:
Mullarkey will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
While Mullarkey isn’t the most impressive fighter in the world and has been very hittable, he’s a solid well-rounded talent with heart for days. He has Naimov outgunned anywhere this fight can go and Naimov has basically no chance of winning, barring a freak injury. Naimov has gotten manhandled by low-level fighters at 145 lb and has no chance of being competitive against legitimate competition at 155 lb. The only question we have is whether Mullarkey will get more aggressive and push for a finish or if he’ll again be content with cruising to a decision win. Considering Naimov poses far less of a threat than any of Mullarkey’s recent opponents, he should be able to get more aggressive without putting himself in danger and we fully expect him to knock Naimov out. Give us Mullarkey by round two knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Mullarkey KO” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Mullarkey is massively mispriced after Guram Kutateladze dropped out an hour after DraftKings released pricing. Mullarkey went from being the biggest underdog on the slate to the biggest favorite, but his DraftKings pricing was already locked in when he was a +260 underdog. That will result in him being stupidly popular and make it drastically more difficult to create unique lineups that include him. That means you’ll want to leave a lot more salary on the table with lineups that include him if you want to avoid splitting a Burger King coupon for first place. In terms of his actual scoring outlook, Mullarkey only scored 81 and 69 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins, while he totaled 109 and 128 points in a pair of knockouts. If he’s unable to find a finish, there’s certainly a chance he fails to really score well, although he does have wrestling upside in addition to a massive striking advantage in this matchup. At his dirt cheap price tag he could still crack tournament winning lineups even in a decision win if he opts to rely on his wrestling, making it tougher to fade him in this dream matchup against a career 145 lb opponent who’s making his UFC debut on five days’ notice. As much as it pains us to say, we fully expect Mullarkey to knock Naimov out and easily end up in winning lineups while being the highest owned fighter on the card by a wide margin. The odds imply he has a 79% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Naimov has everything working against him here as he makes his short notice UFC debut up a weight class against a much larger veteran who is better everywhere. Not only are the circumstances bad, but so is Naimov. He got his ass kicked on DWCS by a terrible Collin Anglin, who never won another professional fight. The only reason Naimov is getting a shot in the UFC is because they were desperate to find Mullarkey a replacement after he flew around the world to be on this card and Naimov was in the right place at the right time. We have no interest in playing Naimov here or at any point in the future and his time in the UFC will be short. The odds imply he has a 21% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
John Castaneda
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Castaneda had been scheduled to face Mateus Mendonca, but Mendonca dropped out and Gafurov was announced as the replacement a week and a half out.
Looking to bounce back from a second round knockout loss to Daniel Santos, Castaneda’s last three fights all ended early. He nearly finished Santos at multiple points in the first round, but couldn’t quite get him out of there and then faded in the second round. He recently revealed he had been dealing with an illness leading up to the fight that forced him to be on antibiotics, which is why he asked for a Catchweight in the match. It seemed like that didn’t help his cardio any in a crazy paced fight and may have contributed to him slowing down in round two. Prior to that, Castaneda landed a third round submission over Miles Johns after knocking out a washed up Eddie Wineland in the first round a year earlier. Looking back one fight further, Castaneda lost a decision in his July 2020 UFC debut against a really tough Nathaniel Wood. sCastaneda also finished Marcelo Rojo and Gustavo Lopez earlier in his career. Castaneda won a decision on DWCS back in 2017, but it wasn’t enough to get him into the UFC.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Castaneda has eight wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has four decision defeats. Castaneda made his 2012 pro debut at 155 lb, before dropping down to 135 lb shortly thereafter. He’s also competed at 145 lb some, but most of his career has taken place at 135 lb.
Overall, Castaneda is a well rounded fighter with a wrestling background. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed five takedowns on 15 attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down six times on 15 attempts (60% defense). He’s used his wrestling sporadically, and after landing two of his seven attempts on DWCS, he failed to land a takedown on just two attempts over his first three UFC fights, before landing three of his six attempts most recently. So the ability is there, but he’s also been content with keeping fights standing. He said he spent a decent amount of time training in Thailand for this fight, where he claimed to have improved his grappling more than anything else. He also said he had been trying to juggle another full-time job outside of the UFC leading up to this camp, but he finally gave it up to focus entirely on fighting.
Muin Gafurov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on less than two weeks’ notice, Gafurov knocked out his last two opponents after losing a split decision to Chad Anheliger on DWCS in 2021. Gafurov comes in with a decent amount of experience under his belt and has spent time with both One Championship and the LFA. He lost a 2019 decision to John Lineker in Lineker’s first fight after leaving the UFC. Gafurov bounced back with a decision win of his own, the first of his career, leading up to his loss on DWCS. In his last fight, he won the vacant LFA Bantamweight belt in a third round knockout via liver kick.
Now 18-4 as a pro, Gafurov has 10 wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and one decision victory. He’s never been finished, with all four of his losses going the distance. He’s fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb and went the distance against a dangerous John Lineker at 145 lb. However, his last three fights have all been at 135 lb.
Overall, Gafurov is an aggressive wrestler from Tajikistan, but has also proven himself to be a dangerous striker. He’s currently training out of Kaizen MMA in Falls Church, Virginia, alongside his countryman Nurullo Aliev, who recently won his UFC debut. We also saw another fighter from Tajikistan, Loik Radzhabov, recently win a decision in his short notice UFC debut. All three of those fighters share similar traits as they rely heavily on their wrestling and look super durable. One concern with Gafurov is that he missed weight for his second most recent fight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on at weigh-ins especially since he took this on short notice.
Fight Prediction:
Gafurov will have a 1” height advantage, but Castaneda will have a 3” reach advantage.
Gafurov looks like a pretty solid fighter, but he’s stepping in on less than two weeks’ notice and has already shown some cardio concerns in the past, in addition to missing weight for his second most recent fight. So all of his limited preparation time here will likely go towards the weight cut and we’d be very surprised if he looked his best in the fight. On the other side of things, we expect to see a better version of Castaneda here after he just finished a round of antibiotics going into his last fight and has now quit his other full-time job and fully committed himself to fighting for the first time in his UFC career. So while these two seem somewhat evenly matched if they both had a full camp to prepare, we expect Gafurov to slow down as the fight goes on and for Castaneda to take over in the late stages and likely win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is Castaneda’s ML at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Castaneda was moments away from landing his third straight finish in the first round of his last fight, but couldn’t quite finish a badly hurt Daniel Santos and then ultimately got finished himself in round two. In fairness to him, he had just finished a round of antibiotics and was getting over an upper respiratory virus that seemed to zap his cardio, which had previously been pretty solid as he had just landed a third round submission in his previous fight. Castaneda is now coming into this fight healthy and just quit his full-time job to focus entirely on fighting. He also just got back from training in Thailand and we expect to see the best version of him. Also working in his favor, he’s taking on a short notice debuter who stepped into this fight with just a week and a half to prepare, after Castaneda’s previous opponent dropped out. With that said, Gafurov is still a tough opponent and has never been finished in his career, so it doesn’t look like a great spot on paper for Castaneda to find a finish. However, the short notice nature adds to Castaneda’s upside and Gafurov slowed down late in his DWCS fight even when he had more time to prepare. So it’s possible Castaneda can put a pace on Gafurov and drain his cardio to help him find a later finish, but a lower scoring decision is still probably the most likely outcome. The odds imply Castaneda has a 56% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Gafurov looks like an interesting prospect, but he’s being put in a really tough spot to succeed and short notice debuting fighters typically struggle more than the odds suggest. While Gafurov offers wrestling upside and landed five takedowns on DWCS, Castaneda also has a wrestling background, although has been taken down in three of his four UFC fights. Gafurov has also shown knockout power and his best path to victory with so little time to prepare may be to land a knockout, as Castaneda has been knocked out twice in the past. While we’d be surprised to see that happen, it’s definitely not impossible and there’s also a chance Gafurov’s cardio holds up and he grinds out a decision on the mat. So there are a couple of ways for him to score well, but we’re still skeptical that he’ll show up as the best version of himself and he’s a guy we’ll be more excited about playing in his second UFC fight when he has a full camp to prepare. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Don'Tale Mayes
7th UFC Fight (2-3, NC)Looking to bounce back from a pair of decision losses, Mayes recently lost a low-volume snoozer to Augusto Sakai in a fight that was so bad the winner got cut. Prior to that, Mayes lost a split-decision to a low-level short notice replacement who was making his UFC debut—although the defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when Hamdy Abdelwahab tested positive for PEDs. Hamdy was able to knock Mayes down in the first round, take him down three times, and control him for six and a half minutes while also outlanding him 58-47 in significant strikes. It was a terrible showing by Mayes, who was coming off his first early win in the UFC in a third round TKO victory over another low-level Heavyweight in Josh Parisian. Prior to that, he won a decision over Roque Martinez who went 0-3 in the UFC before being cut. Mayes was a regular on DWCS as he made appearances in 2017, 2018 and 2019. After getting knocked out in the third round of his first appearance, he notched R2 and R1 KO victories in his most recent two trips on DWCS in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Mayes then got his shot in the UFC in 2019 in a brutally tough matchup against Ciryl Gane and after nearly getting finished in the first round he was later submitted in round three. Mayes also came close to getting finished in the first round of his next fight against Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira, but managed to survive to see a second round where he was then submitted.
Now 9-5 as a pro, Mayes has five wins by KO, one by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, has one official decision loss, and has one DQ loss. He’s seen the second round in all six of his UFC fights, with five of those making it to round three, and three going the distance. And looking back further, only one of Mayes’ last 12 fights ended in round one. That can likely be explained by the fact that he’s terrible, but huge.
Overall, Mayes is a big Heavyweight who appears athletically gifted but still very green when it comes to MMA. He showed improvements to his wrestling against Parisian, but it’s hard to tell how much of that was simply due to Parisian being terrible off his back. Between his six UFC fights and three DWCS appearances, Mayes has landed 7 takedowns on 14 attempts (50% accuracy), but the majority of that work came against Parisian, who Mayes took down six times on eight attempts. Mayes landed just one takedown on only six attempts against the other eight opponents. He only averages 3.41 SSL/min and doesn’t have a ton of power for a Heavyweight. The only impressive performance we’ve seen from him in the UFC was when he suddenly turned into a wrestler against a terrible Josh Parisian.
Andrei Arlovski
39th UFC Fight (22-15, NC)After winning four straight decisions, with the last two of those being split, Arlovski got submitted in the first round of his last fight against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, after De Lima dropped Arlovski early on. Arlovski is now 44 years old and entering his 39th UFC fight, so it’s fair to wonder how much longer he’ll keep competing. However, he’s still 6-2 in his last eight fights, with his only other recent loss ending in a second round submission against Tom Aspinall. While his last three losses have all ended early, his last 10 victories all went the distance.
Now 34-21 as a pro, Arlovski has 17 wins by KO, three by submission, and 14 decision victories. He’s also been knocked out 11 times, submitted three more, and has seven decision defeats. Arlovski originally joined the UFC in 2000, but left the organization in 2008, before returning in 2014. He won his first four fights back in 2014 and 2015, including a pair of first round knockouts, but has since gone 9-11 plus a No Contest, which was originally a decision loss.
Overall, Arlovski is a well seasoned vet who has made it to the judges in 14 of his last 17 fights, with the three exceptions being early losses to Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Tom Aspinall, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He has a way of drawing lower level opponents into slower paced matches that allow him to rely more on his experience than his athleticism. He doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to end fights early at this stage in his career, but he’s also been a tough guy to put away lately, at least on the feet. In his last 33 fights, over the course of the last decade, the only people to knock Arlovski out are Stipe Miocic (2016 R1), Alistair Overeem (2016 R2), Francis Ngannou (2017 R1), and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2019 R1). Arlovski has only had four takedowns attempted against him in his last nine fights, and three of those were successful. So while he has a 76% career takedown defense, it’s been far less effective lately. He’s just 1-5 in his last six fights where he’s been taken down at least once, with the one win coming in his last split-decision victory, where Jake Collier took him down twice on three attempts. He hasn’t landed a takedown of his own in his last 12 fights, and has relied on pointing his way to victory in low-volume striking battles.
Fight Prediction:
Mayes will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while also being 13 years younger than Arlovski.
This is a low-level Heavyweight fight and neither guy can be trusted. Arlovski has vastly more experience than Mayes and will be trying to slow things down, keep the fight standing, and outpointing his way to a decision win, while if Mayes was smart he’d be looking for takedowns. We’ve still only seen Mayes find much wrestling success once in his career, so it’s hard to know if we’re chasing ghosts hoping he gets this fight to the mat. Arlovski has really struggled on the ground so there appears to be a clear path to victory for Mayes there, but we’re not convinced that Mayes has the skills or fight IQ to put on another dominant wrestling performance, so we’ll say Arlovski wins another close, potentially split, decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Andrei Arlovski Split DEC” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
Mayes has exactly one good performance in the UFC, which came against a low-level opponent in Josh Parisian, where Mayes suddenly turned into a wrestler and scored 124 DraftKings points in a third round TKO win. Mayes failed to top 67 DraftKings points in his other five UFC fights and isn’t a very good striker/fighter. He only averages 3.41 SSL/min and only has the one finish since 2019. He’ll either need another finish or a dominant wrestling performance to return value, and if this fight remains on the feet and goes the distance then no one will score well. While it’s hard to even remotely trust Mayes, Arlovski is 44 years old and has struggled on the ground, so if Mayes does get the fight to the mat, he’ll have a good shot at landing a finish and/or scoring well in a wrestling-heavy decision. After looking terrible in his last two fights, we can’t imagine many people will be excited about playing him in DFS, so we should see his ownership come down some, adding to his tournament appeal. Ultimately he’s a gross boom or bust play, but that’s what tournament winning fighters are made of. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Arlovski has averaged just 67 DraftKings points in his last 10 wins, with all of those victories ending in decisions. He failed to top 74 points in the last six of those and hasn’t finished anybody since 2015. With so much value on this slate, it’s hard to see a low-ceiling option like Arlovski end up in winning lineups unless he randomly lands a finish. And while Mayes is terrible, he’s only been knocked out once in his career, which was in his fifth pro fight back in 2017. We don’t see Arlovski landing the finish he needs to score well, and even at his low ownership we don’t have much interest in playing him. The odds imply Arlovski has a 44% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Daniel Santos
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC win, Santos nearly got finished in the first round by John Castaneda after he got dropped (seemingly twice) and wobbled badly another time all in the opening five minutes. However, he was able to survive and land a knockout of his own in round two, despite also getting taken down three times in the fight. Prior to that chaotic win, Santos lost a decision to Julio Arce in his UFC debut, where Santos spent the entire fight trying to track Arce down.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Santos has six wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and three decisions. Santos’ last three wins have all ended in the first two rounds. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses ending in decisions. Other than the loss to Arce, Santos’ only career loss came in a 2019 decision against Russian wrestler Murad Kalamov, who was able to control Santos on the mat for the majority of the fight. Santos has competed anywhere from 125 lb to 145 lb in the past, but the majority of his fights have been at 135 lb.
Overall, Santos is primarily a striker, but he did submit his last opponent before joining the UFC. He trains out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima in Brazil with several high profile UFC fighters, including the former Lightweight champ, Charles Oliveira. Santos will aggressively push forward and loves spinning attacks, but has a shorter reach and we saw him struggle to find his range in his debut as he missed on nearly 80% of his attempted strikes. You can’t question his heart but you can question his chin and he almost got knocked out three times in the first round of his last match. Nevertheless, he’s an all action fighter who looks to put on exciting performances and seems pretty well rounded.
Johnny Munoz
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Coming off a decision win to save his job, Munoz defeated a low-level opponent in Liudvik Sholinian, who came in 0-1 in the UFC and also lost in the second round of The Ultimate Fighter. Munoz surprisingly only attempted a single takedown in the first two rounds of that fight, before landing two of his three attempts in the third round to secure the victory. Munoz lost a decision in his UFC debut against Nate Maness, but bounced back with a second round submission win over a terrible Jamey Simmons, who came in 0-1 with the organization and had been finished in the first round in all three of his previous career losses. Munoz then got planked by Tony Gravely 68 seconds into the first round of his next match, leading up to his recent win. While Munoz is 2-2 in the UFC, he’s yet to defeat anyone who has ever won a UFC fight.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Munoz has two wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and three decision victories. While his first six finishes all occurred in the first round, his last three have all come in round two. He’s also been knocked out once in the first round, with his only other defeat ending in a decision in his UFC debut. Six of his last seven fights have seen the second round, with three of those ending in second round rear-naked choke victories and the other three making it to the third round and ultimately going the distance.
Overall, Munoz is a BJJ black belt and a multi-time IBJJF world champion, who is generally looking to take opponents down and hunt for submissions. However, he showed more of a willingness to keep things standing in his last match and seems to be working on his striking. He started training judo and jiu-jitsu at a very young age as his father was also a fighter. In his four UFC fights, he’s landed 6 takedowns on 24 attempts (25% accuracy), while he’s been taken down himself once on three opponent attempts (66.7% defense). His chin looks somewhat dubious after seeing how easily he went down in the Gravely fight, but in fairness to him, that’s the only time he’s ever been finished. With that said, we should see it get tested in this next match if it stays on the feet for long.
Fight Prediction:
Munoz will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
We’re not sold on Munoz, and while he’s a decent grappler, he looks pretty one-dimensional and hasn’t shown himself to be very durable. He’s only shown the ability to defeat ultra low-level opponents and got quickly starched by Tony Gravely in just 68 seconds. Now he’ll face another dangerous opponent, and there’s a really good chance Munoz gets finished once again. The only way we see Munoz winning is with a submission, and Santos has never been finished and trains with Charles Oliveira, so he should be prepared for what Munoz has to offer. We like Santos to find a finish in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Santos ITD” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Santos is an aggressive finisher and put up a massive 120 point score in his recent second round knockout win over a tough John Castaneda. However, Santos also almost got finished himself in that match and fights pretty recklessly. So he’s a tough guy to trust, but his upside is undeniable. He’ll have a massive striking advantage in this next matchup as he takes on a one-dimensional grappler, so he shouldn’t have to worry about getting knocked out, but will run the risk of getting submitted if the fight hits the ground. Following his scoring explosion in his last fight, we expect Santos to be pretty popular, especially with so few appealing options at the top of the DraftKings price chart. That gives some merit to looking for ways he fails when building tournament lineups, but we like Santos’ chances of finding another finish here and scoring well once again. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Munoz is a BJJ black belt and is always dangerous looking for submissions on the mat, but he’s pretty one-dimensional and hasn’t impressed us with his striking. Now he’ll face a well-rounded opponent who will aggressively be pushing forward and looking to knock him out. Santos will also look for submissions on the mat, so Munoz will need to be careful anywhere the fight goes. Munoz has only landed 6 of his 24 takedown attempts in the UFC, so he’s struggled with his accuracy, which isn’t encouraging for his outlook. Santos has also never been finished in his career and spends his time training with Charles Oliveira, which isn’t encouraging for Munoz’s chances of locking up the submission he needs to score well. However, if Munoz does pull off the upset, he’ll be a great leverage play against the popular Santos, so he does have that going for him. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
13th UFC Fight (9-3)Coming off a year long suspension due to a failed drug test, Zaleski dos Santos hasn’t competed since October 2021 when he won a violent decision over Benoit St. Denis in a controversial fight that seemingly everyone agrees on should have been stopped. That win notably came against a debuting Benoit St. Denis, who took the fight up at 170 lb, but has since dropped down to 155 lb. Zaleski dos Santos has dropped out of two of his last three scheduled fights and his second most recent fight was all the way back in 2020. His last three fights all went the distance, after he got knocked out in the third round of a 2019 match against Li Jingliang. His only loss in his last three fights came in a 2020 split decision against Muslim Salikhov. Of Dos Santos’ 12 UFC fights, nine have made it to the third round, with seven ending in decisions. He did go through a stretch in 2018-2019 where he landed a R1 submission and a pair of KOs spread across the first two rounds, but outside of that almost all of his fights have ended with the judges.
Now 23-7 as a pro, 14 of Dos Santos’ wins have come by KO/TKO, three ended in submissions, and six were by decision. He’s been knocked out once and submitted twice, while losing four decisions. All three of his submission wins came by rear-naked choke (R2 2012, R2 2014, R1 2019), while both of his submission losses also came by rear-naked choke in the second round. That 2019 submission was the last time he finished anybody and his last KO victory was in September 2018 against a debuting Luigi Vendramini, who was fighting up a weight class.
Overall, Zaleski dos Santos is a BJJ black belt who utilizes a flashy Capoeira style of fighting that includes spinning kicks and unorthodox attacks that can catch his opponents by surprise. However, he generally doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns. In his 12 UFC fights, Zaleski dos Santos has landed five of his 33 takedown attempts (15.2% accuracy). While he’s attempted at least one takedown in 11 of his 12 fights, he’s never landed more than two in a fight, a number he only reached once. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down by his opponents on 19 of their 50 attempts (62% defense), but won four of the last five fights where he gave up a takedown. Now 36 years old and coming off a suspension, it will be interesting to see how Zaleski dos Santos looks.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Nurmagomedov is coming off a pair of decision wins after getting submitted in the first round of his 2019 UFC debut against David Zawada. The first of those victories came against a suspect Jared Gooden (1-4 in the UFC), while the most recent was against Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (0-2 in the UFC). So we’ve yet to see Nurmagomedov defeat any real UFC-level talents, but he’ll get his chance here as he finally faces an established veteran. Nurmagomedov’s last two and four of his previous five fights before joining the UFC went the distance and the last time he finished anybody was in a 2016 R2 TKO. Six of his last eight fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being a pair of submission losses. After impressively starting his pro career 14-1, Abubakar has now gone just 3-2-1 in his last six fights. Nurmagomedov has struggled with fight cancellations and inactivity and he’s only fought three times in the last 4+ years. Three of his last four booked fights have been canceled, with Nurmagomedov dropping out of at least two of those.
Now 17-3-1 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has six wins by KO, four submissions, and seven decision victories. He’s been finished in all three of his losses, with a 2014 doctor stoppage R1 TKO, a 2018 R2 submission loss, and a 2019 R1 submission defeat. His last four wins and six of his last seven victories all ended in decisions. His last KO victory came in 2016 and his last submission win was back in 2014. Also notable, 8 of his 10 finishes came in his first eight pro fights against lower level opponents.
Overall, Nurmagomedov generally relies on his wrestling to grind out decision wins, although we did see his fight against Gooden remain on the feet for the first two rounds. Nurmagomedov has been training with his cousin Khabib for essentially his entire life as they lived together growing up. You can definitely see some similarities in their wrestling, but don’t expect the second coming of Khabib here. With that said, similar to his cousin, Abubakar looks like his preferred way to win fights is by dominating control time and exerting heavy top pressure. In his three UFC fights, Nurmagomedov has landed three of his 10 takedown attempts (30% accuracy), with exactly one takedown landed in each of his fights. His opponents have only gotten him down once on seven attempts (85.7% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11” but Zaleski dos Santos will have a 1” reach advantage. Nurmagomedov is three years younger than the 36-year-old Zaleski dos Santos.
Nurmagomedov should have the wrestling advantage here, but Zaleski dos Santos is the superior striker and the more dangerous grappler. So while we could see Nurmagomedov grind out another wrestling-heavy decision win, Zaleski dos Santos is the more likely of the two to land a finish. We’ve never been impressed by Nurmagomedov, and the only hesitation with going all in on Zaleski dos Santos are his age, lack of volume, and recent suspension due to a failed drug test. So it’s hard to know what version of him we’ll get here, but if he looks like his old self we like his chances of winning, with a decent shot of finishing Nurmagomedov. However, if Zaleski dos Santos looks like a shell of himself then we would expect Nurmagomedov to win a decision. We’ll give Zaleski dos Santos the benefit of the doubt and say he wins the fight. Because Nurmagomedov has never landed more than a single takedown in a fight, Zaleski dos Santos could win a decision, and both a knockout or submission are also live. So it’s hard to say the exact method he’ll win by, making his practically even moneyline more appealing.
Our favorite bet here is Zaleski dos Santos’ ML at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Zaleski dos Santos has generally relied on landing first round finishes to really score well, but did score 97 DraftKings points in his last decision that should have been stopped earlier as he put a life shortening beating on Benoit St. Denis. Prior to that, he had only averaged 67 DraftKings points in his first four UFC decision wins, failing to top 72 points in any of those. He also scored just 86 points in a 2018 R2 KO win and only 85 points in a 2016 third round finish. He’s only landed five takedowns in 12 UFC appearances, and is now going against a wrestler with an 85% takedown defense. And prior to his recent high-volume decision win, he had never landed more than 84 significant strikes in a fight. So it’s probably safe to treat his last performance as an anomaly and treat him as a R1 finish or bust option. Perhaps he could still score enough with a well timed later round finish to still be useful at his reasonable price tag, but that remains to be seen. Working in his favor, Nurmagomedov has been finished in all three of his losses. But working against him, Zaleski dos Santos is coming off an extended layoff following a suspension due to a failed drug test and at 36 years old we don’t know what version of him we’ll see. That leaves him as a boom or bust play. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Nurmagomedov has yet to impress in DFS or real life, scoring just 72 and 75 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, which both ended in lower-volume decisions with just a single takedown landed in each. Don’t let his last name fool you, Nurmagomedov is an uninspiring fighter who has yet to show any true scoring ceiling. He also got submitted in the first round of his UFC debut, and all three of his losses have come early, so even his floor can’t be trusted. He’s also been incredibly inactive, which is another red flag, and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2016. Now he’s facing a BJJ black belt, so Nurmagomedov will run the risk of getting submitted as he tries to wrestle in this matchup. The only thing he has going for him is his cheaper price tag, which could allow him to sneak into winning lineups even without a massive score. The line actually flipped in his favor, which could push his ownership up some, which further limits his appeal. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Karine Silva
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Silva had been scheduled to face Priscila Cachoeira six weeks ago on April 22nd, but Cachoeira missed weight by 4 lb and the fight was canceled.
Coming off a first round submission win in her UFC debut against Poliana Botelho, Silva has finished six straight opponents and 100% of her career wins have come early. She secured her spot on the UFC roster with a second round submission win on DWCS and four of her last five wins have come by submission, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 TKO where she snapped her opponents arm in an armbar attempt but there was never a tap so it went down as a TKO when the ref eventually stopped the fight due to the injury. Her only other KO/TKO win since 2015 was in 2019, and the majority of her recent finishes have been by submission. Her DWCS victory is the only time she’s seen the second round since 2019, when she lost a decision in her only career fight to require the judges. That’s especially impressive when you consider she turned pro all the way back in 2013 and has 19 fights under her belt.
Now 15-4 as a pro, all 15 of her career wins have come in the first two rounds, including 11 in R1 and four in R2. She has nine wins by KO/TKO and six submissions. However, five of her nine KO/TKO wins came in her first six pro fights and the majority of her recent wins have ended in submissions. She’s been finished in three of her four career losses, with one KO and two submissions, and she lost the only decision she’s ever been to. She’s 0-2 in fights that have made it to the third round, although 17 of her last 18 fights haven’t required the third round. She was knocked out in the third round of her 2013 pro debut and then a year later was submitted in the first round by UFC fighter Maryna Moroz. The only time she’s been finished since 2014 was in a 2017 R1 kneebar, which she followed up with a decision loss. Silva turned pro in 2013 when she was just 19 years old and fought anywhere from 115 lb to 135 lb early on. She hasn’t fought at 115 lb since 2015, but she has been going back and forth between 135 lb and 125 lb more recently. However, her last two fights have been at 125 lb and it appears that’s where she’ll stay.
Overall, Silva is an aggressive fighter who’s constantly looking for finishes and will throw up a variety of submission attempts. She’s a BJJ brown belt and a dangerous submission threat from all types of positions, with very flexible hips that allow her to be dangerous off her back. Between her DWCS match and her UFC debut, she landed one of her three takedown attempts (33% accuracy), while she got taken down by her opponents twice on just two attempts. She’s also a pretty dangerous striker, with solid power and likes to throw a lot of kicks up the middle. One area of concern with her is her cardio, and she looked to be slowing down some on DWCS before she finished the fight with a guillotine submission. She’s also never won a fight that lasted longer than two rounds, and has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb, so it could be a tougher cut for her to make 125 lb, although she did compete at 115 lb early in her career.
Ketlen Souza
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Souza is making her UFC debut on a five-fight winning streak, with her last three fights all going the distance, including two five-rounders. She just won the Invicta FC Vacant Flyweight belt in the most recent of those five-round decisions. Her last two fights were both with Invicta, who has open scoring, and Souza seemed to coast a little down the stretch in those fights, knowing she was ahead and just needed to survive. The last time Sozua finished anybody was in May 2021, when she knocked out an opponent who came in with an 0-0-1 record and never fought again. Just two weeks prior to that she landed another second round knockout, after she got knocked out in each of her two previous fights.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Souza has eight wins by KO/TKO, one by submission (R2 2018), and four decision victories. After the first four finishes of her career ended in the first round, her last five came in the later rounds, with four in round two and one in round five. Her last two losses both ended in knockouts (R3 2019 & R1 2020), after the first loss of her career ended in a 2015 first round armbar. After 12 of her first 13 pro fights ended early, her last three have all gone the distance as she’s begun facing a more consistent level of competition. While she did go up against now UFC fighter Ariane Carnelossi in a third round KO loss back in 2018, Souza had been facing largely low-level and inexperienced opponents for most of her career. As recently as 2021 she defeated a pair of opponents who came in with records of 1-0 and 0-0-1. Souza turned pro in 2016 at 115 lb, before moving up to 125 lb in 2021. She also had one fight up at 135 lb in 2021, but her last two fights were both at 125 lb, and she actually only weighed in at 123.6 lb and 123 lb for those two matches, although both of her opponents also checked in underweight. One of those was against a 36-year-old opponent on a three fight skid who came in on short notice. Just prior to joining Invicta, Souza won a five-round decision over a 40-year-old opponent.
Overall, Souza somewhat resembles a store brand Jessica Andrade, although that’s largely based on appearance alone. She’s not quite as aggressive as Andrade and comes in with a much more kick-heavy approach, but she swings with bad intentions and does throw big looping bombs. She’s also lighter on her feet and has good movement as she does a good job of flowing in fights. While Souza is primarily looking to strike and only has one submission win on her record, she will look for submissions off her back and has flexible hips that allow for a somewhat dangerous guard. Looking at her Instagram, it appears she was just awarded her black belt back in February. She looks like an interesting prospect, and if she struggles against UFC opponents at 125 lb, it’s always possible we see her move back down to 115 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Silva will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This sets up as a fun fight between two dangerous Brazilian fighters. They’re both well rounded, but Silva is generally looking to end fights with submissions, while Souza prefers to hunt for knockouts. Souza has faced a lot of questionable competition, which makes it tougher to gauge how she’ll fare at the UFC level. And while she’s looked decent in her recent performances, she seemed terrible earlier in her career, where she looked like a completely different fighter. That makes it tougher to trust her as she faces the toughest opponent of her career in her UFC debut. However, Silva has shown questionable cardio in the past and Souza has won three straight decisions, with two of those going five rounds. So if this fight makes it to the back half, we like Souza to be the fresher fighter and take over down the stretch. With that said, she’s lacked the killer instinct late in fights she knows she’s winning and has been content with riding out decisions lately. All 15 of Silva’s career wins have come in the first two rounds, with four of her last five victories coming by submission and the other a TKO caused by an armbar attempt. However, Souza is a BJJ black belt and should be able to defend herself on the mat. So despite 75% of Souza’s career fights ending early and 95% of Silva’s, if Souza can simply survive the first half of the fight, there’s a good chance this goes the distance and she pulls off the upset in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is Souza’s ML at +186.
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DFS Implications:
Silva has won six straight fights and 100% of her 15 career wins have come early, all in the first two rounds. While she’s a well-rounded fighter, the majority of her recent finishes have come by submission. Now she’ll face an opponent who generally prefers to strike, but is also a BJJ black belt, making this a tougher matchup for Silva to lock up a submission. Silva had an efficient first round submission win in her recent UFC debut, which scored 104 DraftKings points and 121 points on FanDuel, after landing a second round submission on DWCS that would have only totaled 81 DraftKings points and 92 points on FanDuel. Silva only landed one takedown in those two fights and averaged just 2.49 SSL/min. When you combine that with her questionable cardio and high price tag, she looks like a R1 finish or bust option who could still easily get priced out of winning lineups even with an early finish. The odds imply she has a 65% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Souza is a newly minted BJJ black belt who will occasionally mix in takedowns but is primarily looking to strike and only use her jiu-jitsu for defensive purposes. Souza has looked like a different fighter in her past couple of matches compared to earlier in her career, as she’s improved everywhere and throws big right hands and spinning kicks with bad intentions. However, she hasn’t finished anybody in just over two years and her last three fights all went the distance. She’s been a little too content with leaving fights up to the judges, which is concerning for her DFS scoring potential, but 9 of her 13 career wins have come early and Silva has been finished in three of her four losses, while also having cardio concerns late in fights. We don’t see Souza scoring especially well without a finish, although at her cheap price tag there’s still a chance she could serve as a value play depending on how the rest of the slate goes. The odds imply she has a 35% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Tim Elliott
18th UFC Fight (7-10)Elliott had originally been booked to fight Allan Nascimento here, but Nascimento withdrew and after some matchup shuffling Altamirano was announced as the replacement six weeks out.
Elliott hasn’t competed in 16 months following a decision win over Tagir Ulanbekov and it’s just a shame that Jerry Springer is no longer with us as Elliott would be the perfect guest on the show. We won’t go overly in depth, but to sum it up quickly, Elliott’s wife left him for his best friend, who she’s been having an affair with since their wedding night and Elliott decided to broadcast that news all over the internet. His gym got shut down by the UFC and his former coach is being investigated by the FBI. His previous coach to that killed himself. All of the metal screws in Elliott’s surgically repaired knee fell out, so the doctors had to go in and replace all the metal hardware with plastic. After recovering from that, he tore his Meniscus and flew down to Mexico to get stem cell treatment to help him recover. And now he’s training at a small gym in Texas and living with his new coach, which means he’s separated from his daughter for the first time and only gets to see her occasionally. Other than that, it’s business as usual for him.
While Elliott is just 3-4 in his last seven fights, those four losses were all against guys at the top of the Flyweight division in Matheus Nicolau, Brandon Royval, Askar Askarov, and Deiveson Figueiredo. Earlier in his UFC career, Elliott also suffered losses to Demetrious Johnson, Joseph Benavidez, and John Dodson, which makes his losing UFC record more understandable. Elliott’s last four fights all went the distance, with him winning three of those. Elliott showed complete contempt for the rules in his last win over Tagir Ulanbekov, landing an illegal knee or two, blatantly grabbing Ulanbekov’s glove to hold him in place, headbutting him to open up a cut, and flirting with eye pokes. He was one groin strike away from completing his sleazebag Bingo card. Prior to that win, Elliott lost a close decision to Matheus Nicolau, after dominating Jordan Espinosa on the ground for three rounds. Elliott notably shredded his knee in June of 2018, which resulted in nearly a two year layoff from December 2017 until October 2019 and he lost his first three fights after coming back, but now he seems back on track.
Now 18-12-1 as a pro, Elliott has three wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and nine decision victories. All three of his knockouts came early in his career from 2009 to 2011 and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017, with his only other submission win since 2012 coming in 2015 in between his first and second stints with the UFC. He’s only been knocked out once himself, which came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2009. However, he’s been submitted five times and also has six decision defeats. His last 21 fights all ended in either decisions (8-6) or submissions (3-4). All of those submissions occurred in the first two rounds. Six of his seven UFC wins went the distance, with his only early win in the UFC coming in a 2017 R2 anaconda choke against a terrible Mark De La Rosa.
Overall, Elliott is a former high school state champion wrestler and his fighting style can only be described as kinetic grapple tweaking. We’ve seen him adjust his pace down from bath salt insanity to moderate meth head, only to crank things back up to 11 in his last match. This will be his first fight with his new team after the Federales more or less shut down Glory MMA, so it will be interesting to see how crazy he comes out with a different head coach in his corner. However, he’s made it sound like he plans on putting on a show, hunting for a bonus, and looking for a finish. We’ve seen Elliott slow down in the back half of fights when he pushes the pace early, so that will be something to keep an eye on if he comes out guns blazing. In his last five fights, Elliott has landed 13 takedowns on 49 attempts (26.5% accuracy), while his opponents have taken him down on 5 of their 14 attempts (64.3% defense). He attempted at least seven takedowns in each of those fights, with double digit attempts in three of those.
Victor Altamirano
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Stepping into this matchup with five weeks to prepare, Altamirano has won two in a row and six of his last seven fights, with his only misstep coming in a split-decision loss in his February 2022 UFC debut. Four of his last five fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a R1 TKO over an insanely fragile Daniel da Silva, who did drop Altamirano before getting finished with ground and pound. Altamirano has consistently been involved in close fights, with two of his last three and three of his last five decisions being split. His most recent win ended in a unanimous 29-28 decision win over a debuting Vinicius Salvador. Other than his TKO win over Da Silva, Altamirano’s only other finish in his last nine fights came in a weird situation in a 2020 second round submission, where he landed an illegal up kick and the ref paused the fight. When the ref reset the position Altamirano immediately wrapped up a triangle choke to land a finish in a fight he had been losing.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Altamirano has two wins by R1 TKO, four submissions, and six decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2019 R2 submission, while he also has one decision defeat. Eight of his last nine fights have seen the second round, with six of those going the distance.
Overall, Altamirano is a BJJ brown belt, but seems a little too comfortable working off his back in a closed guard. While he does have four submissions on his record, three of those came in his first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, and 1-1. Altamirano won the vacant LFA Flyweight belt in a five-round decision just before going on DWCS in 2021, and he looks to have solid cardio. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed 8 takedowns on 34 attempts (23.5% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents 8 times on 31 attempts (74.2% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Altamirano will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, in addition to being four years younger than the 36-year-old Elliott.
Neither of these two throw with a ton of power, but they both push a high pace and offer a combination of striking and grappling. Elliott is the superior wrestler, but has also been more prone to getting submitted and has shown questionable cardio at times. So while Elliott has the better shot at landing takedowns and racking up control time, Altamirano could find more success the longer the fight goes and has a better shot at locking up a submission. Elliott has been telling anyone that will listen that he’s planning on ending this fight early, but keep in mind he has just one early win in 17 UFC appearances, which came back in 2017 against a terrible Mark De La Rosa, who went 2-5 in the UFC. Elliott is now 36 years old, coming off multiple knee procedures and a 16 month layoff, recently split up with his wife and his gym, and is now training with a new, smaller team in Texas. Recency bias will have everyone bringing up how great Mackenzie Dern looked after her recent divorce, but that’s a dangerous game to play. With that said, we do expect Elliott to come out ultra aggressive and win the early stages of this fight, and that pace raises the potential that someone gets finished, despite both of these two generally fighting to decisions.
We’ve seen Elliott slow down late in fights where he pushes an insane pace early, and if he completely empties his tank then Altamirano could be staring at a teed up late round finish, although neither of these two have been especially impressive finishers. Elliot by decision seems like the obvious pick, but also feels a bit trappy. Altamirano tends to duck down to avoid punches and it would set up perfectly for Elliott to land a well timed knee and knock him out. Ultimately, this is a volatile fight that could go a lot of ways and Elliot was dangerously close to a point deduction at multiple points in his last fight. This is also the type of uptempo matchup that has the potential for a 10-8 round either from Elliott early or Altamirano late. While we’re not ones to ever advocate betting the draw, if there was ever a spot to do it this could be it, with multiple ways for the scoring to get weird if it goes the distance. The books have shaded the Elliott decision and FGTD props to the extent that they’re unbeatable, and Elliott claims he’s going to end it early. So this is a spot where we either want to sit out or take some small plus money shots on finishing props.
Our favorite bet here is “FDGTD” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Elliott has more red flags than a Soviet parade, but this looks like a good matchup for him to fully utilize his tweaked out wrestling-heavy fighting style. Whether or not he actually does that is a different story and he’s made it clear his plan is to come in looking for a finish and a bonus. We’ve seen two different versions of Elliott in the past, but when he lets it all hang out he’s shown massive upside, especially on DraftKings. Despite six of his seven UFC wins going the distance, he averaged 116 DraftKings points in those victories. However, after averaging an insane 146 points in his first three UFC decision wins, he’s averaged “just” 90 points in his last three. You could argue that scoring decline was due to age, coaching, or level of competition, but the last time he topped 97 DraftKings points in a decision was in 2017. While he’s shown both a solid floor and ceiling even without a finish, at his high price tag he’ll need a ceiling performance to crack winning lineups. Considering he’s 36 years old and coming off multiple knee procedures, a 16 month layoff, a switch in gyms, and a recent separation from his wife, it’s hard to know how he’ll look, leaving him as a volatile, high-upside option. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Altamirano is coming off a pair of wins in favorable matchups where he scored 88 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, after scoring a slate-breaking 134 points in a R1 TKO win. Now he gets another interesting matchup against an opponent in Elliott who is surrounded in uncertainty and likes to push the pace. The concern for Altamirano here is that if Elliott fights smart he could just smother Altamirano on the mat for three rounds. While we’ve seen Elliott execute that game plan at times in the past, we’ve also seen him fight like a deranged lunatic and now he’s coming in with more baggage than an airport carousel. Elliott has also said he has no intentions of grinding out a decision and will be hunting for a bonus and an early finish. If he stays true to his word, that adds to both fighters’ upside as either of them could finish the other if this turns into a war. Altamirano’s cheap price tag means he doesn’t necessarily need a finish to return value, and if he can simply outlast Elliott and win a decision that could be enough. Whoever wins this fight should score well, making it an interesting one to target. The odds imply Altamirano has a 38% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Jim Miller
42nd UFC Fight (24-16, NC)Miller had been scheduled to face Ludovit Klein, but Klein dropped out and Gordon was announced as the replacement just over two weeks out. Then Gordon dropped out two days before the fight and Butler was announced as the replacement on Thursday.
Short notice matchups are nothing new for the longtime UFC veteran as he’s dealt with numerous late changes in recent years. Going back to early 2021, he had been scheduled to face Bobby Green, but Green collapsed after weigh-ins and Miller ended up losing a decision to Joe Solecku a couple of months later. Then Miller was set to face Nikolas Motta later that year, but tested positive for COVID and then instead faced a debuting Erick Gonzalez four weeks later, who Miller knocked out in the second round. The Motta fight was then put back together in early 2022 and Miller landed another second round knockout win against a debuting fighter. The UFC then put the fight back together with Bobby Green, but he failed a drug test and Miller ended up facing Donald Cerrone on short notice, who Miller submitted in the second round. Following three straight wins, Miller was scheduled to fight Gabriel Benítez in early 2023, but he dropped out and Alexander Hernandez stepped in on short notice and outlanded his way to a decision win.
Now 35-17 as a pro, Miller has six wins by KO/TKO, 19 submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has 12 decision losses. Miller has lost the last seven decisions he’s been to, but hasn’t been finished since 2018 when Charles Oliveira submitted him in the first round. Miller’s last seven wins all ended early, with his last decision victory coming all the way back in 2016. His last three finishes all occurred in the second round, with two coming by knockout, after his four prior wins all ended in first round submissions. The last time Miller finished anybody beyond the second round was in a 2011 R3 TKO win.
Overall, Miller is a high-level grappler and BJJ black belt. While he’s generally looking to end fights with submissions, two of his last three finishes ended in knockouts after only landing four knockout wins in his first 48 pro matches. Just keep in mind both of those came against guys making their UFC debuts. Miller doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, averaging just 2.85 SSL/min in his career, while tacking on 1.6 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. In his last 10 fights, he’s only landed six takedowns on 10 attempts (60% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down six times on 13 attempts (53.8% defense). Miller has said his plan is to make it to the UFC 300 card in mid 2024 and then retire, so the end is in sight for him, although he’s still a few fights away from getting there. He absorbed the most significant strikes of his career in his last match (108) and he’s only landed one takedown in his last three matches on just two attempts. The last time he landed more than two takedowns in a fight was all the way back in 2016 and it’s rare to see him put up big takedown numbers.
Jesse Butler
42nd UFC Fight (24-16, NC)Making his UFC debut on extremely short notice, Butler was announced as the replacement for Jared Gordon on Thursday and had zero time to prepare for this fight. He’s won five straight fights, with three of his last four wins coming early, but he’s been facing a very low level of competition so take his results with a grain of salt.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Butler has one KO win (R1 2022), eight submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2016) and has decision losses. He fought at 155 lb and 170 lb in his first three pro fights, before dropping down to 145 lb in 2017, where he’s stayed until now. He’ll be making his UFC debut up a weight class at 155 lb.
Overall, Butler is just a BJJ purple belt, but he’s primarily a grappler and has spent some time training with Kron Gracie and Matt Schnell. His takedown defense has been nearly non-existent and he’s appeared content relying on his jiu-jitsu to win grappling exchanges. He has shown some striking ability and landed his first knockout in his second most recent win, but we’re not counting on him winning many striking battles at the UFC level and he’s never landed much in the way of striking volume. This will be a massive step up in competition for him and our expectations couldn’t be much lower.
Fight Prediction:
Butler will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also eight years younger than the 39-year-old Miller.
This will be Miller’s 42nd UFC fight and Butler’s first so there’s just a slight experience gap in play. It’s a horrendous stylistic matchup for Butler, who relies on his grappling to win and is bringing a knife to a gunfight here. The UFC just wanted to keep Miller on the card so they were willing to give any warm body with a pulse a UFC contract to do it. Butler is massively outgunned anywhere the fight can go and we’d be shocked if Miller didn’t finish him. The only question is whether it comes by submission or knockout. Both are in play, it’s really just a pick your poison spot for Butler. If Butler is willing to keep it standing, then there’s a good chance Miller will be as well. However, if Butler tries to grapple then look for Miller to lock up a submission. Miller knocked out the last two debuting fighters he took on in the second round and a similar outcome here would make sense as we don’t expect Butler to have the cardio to last the whole fight. Regardless, look for Miller to find a finish in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Miller ITD” at whatever the line is when they finally put it out.
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DFS Implications:
Miller is massively mispriced at just $7,100 on DraftKings because he had been scheduled to face Jared Gordon as a +145 underdog. However, Gordon dropped out on Thursday and Miller is now a -245 favorite, which will drive his ownership through the roof. He couldn’t ask for a much better matchup, as he takes on a low-level opponent who is stepping in on just two days’ notice and fighting up a weight class. Looking past the matchup itself, Miller is quickly approaching the final lap of his career, as he’s already said his goal is to retire after fighting on the UFC 300 card, which is expected to take place around mid 2024. He also said he wants that to be his 45th UFC fight and he’s stepping into #42 here, so he still has a few more stops along the way. Miller’s last seven wins all ended early, while he lost the last seven decisions he’s been to. Prior to his recent decision loss, he landed three straight second round finishes that were good for 89, 100, and 103 DraftKings points. His four wins prior to that all ended in first round submissions, scoring 95, 116, 104, and 102 points. You have to go all the way back to 2016 to find his last decision victory, but it scored just 76 points, and his one prior to that scored just 66. So even at his cheap price tag, a rare decision victory could still fail to be useful depending on what the other dogs do. With that said, this is teed up for Miller to land a finish and at his cheap price tag the only way he gets left out of winning lineups in that scenario is if we get a really high scoring slate with multiple dogs landing finishes. Due to his high ownership, you’ll need a plan to avoid highly duped lineups when playing Miller in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win.
Butler is walking into an ambush here against an opponent in Miller who has 11 more UFC fights than Butler has years on this planet. Butler is massively outgunned anywhere this fight can go, but generally relies on his grappling to win. Miller is a BJJ black belt and has more submission wins than Butler has pro fights. Miller is also very durable, so a hail mary knockout from Butler is very unlikely. It will take some sort of freak occurrence for Butler to pull off the upset and it would be shocking to see it happen. We have no interest in playing him or even spending any more time talking about him. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win.
Fight #2
Alex Caceres
28th UFC Fight (15-11, NC)Caceres is coming off a R1 TKO win over a fragile Julian Erosa, which is only Caceres’ second KO/TKO victory since 2010. His only other TKO “finish” in the last 13 years was a 2017 post R2 TKO due to an opponent suffering an eye injury. Prior to that finish, Caceres suffered his only loss in his last seven fights in a decision against a really tough Sodiq Yusuff, after winning five in a row prior to that. That winning streak began with a decision win over Steven Peterson, followed by another decision victory over a very green Chase Hooper, who was making his second UFC appearance and was just 20 years old at the time. Caceres then landed a first round submission against a short notice replacement in Austin Springer, who was making his UFC debut and never fought again. Caceres then won another decision, this time against Kevin Croom, who went 0-3 plus a No Contest in the UFC before being released. Caceres’ most impressive win over the five fight stretch was against Seung Woo Choi. After nearly getting knocked out and then taking an illegal knee to the head in the first round, Caceres opted to continue and fought his way back into the fight and then three minutes into round two Caceres was able to take Choi’s back on the feet and lock up a rear-naked choke. Caceres’ second most recent loss was all the way back in 2019 when he got submitted in the first round by Kron Gracie.
Now 20-13 as a pro, Caceres has four wins by TKO, seven submissions, and nine decision victories. He’s only been knocked out once in his career (R1 2015), but has been submitted seven times, and has five decision losses. Four of those seven submission losses notably occurred in 2011 or prior, and he’s only been finished twice in his last 15 fights dating back to 2015—both times by rear-naked choke (2017 & 2019). If we include the split-decision win over Kyung Ho Kang that was later overturned to a No Contest when Caceres tested positive for THC, seven of his 15 career decisions have been split (4-3). Nine of Caceres’ last 10 fights have ended in either decisions (4-2) or submissions (2-1). Caceres made his UFC debut in 2011 at 145 lb, but after starting 0-2 with the organization he dropped down to 135 lb later that year. He stayed at 135 lb until 2015, going 5-4 plus a No Contest (originally a decision win) in his next 10 fights, before moving back up to 145 lb in 2016 following three straight losses at 135 lb. He’s since stayed at 145 lb and is now 10-7 at 145 lb in the UFC.
Overall, Caceres is a longtime UFC veteran who joined the organization all the way back in 2011 and will be stepping into his 28th UFC fight. He has a fluid karate style that utilizes a lot of kicks, but leaves his lead leg vulnerable to getting beat up. He’s worked on his wrestling in recent years, to shore up what had been his biggest weakness, and despite having seven submission losses on his record, it’s been over four years since anyone submitted him. In his last UFC 10 fights, he’s landed three takedowns on six attempts (50% accuracy), while only giving up eight takedowns on 38 opponent attempts (78.9% defense). His karate style approach to fighting generally results in somewhat lower volume striking battles as he averages 4.16 SSL/min and 2.92 SSA/min.
Daniel Pineda
12th UFC Fight (5-5, NC)Fresh off a second round submission win over Tucker Lutz in front of Pineda’s home Texas crowd, Pineda’s last 11 fights have all ended in under 10 minutes and he hasn’t seen the third round since 2016. He dropped Lutz in the first round of that last fight and then finished him with a guillotine in round two. Prior to that win, it had been 21 months since the 37-year-old Pineda last competed. Following a June 2021 No Contest against Andre Fili, Pineda got suspended when he tested positive for Adderall, despite being prescribed it by a doctor. He then suffered knee and calf injuries that prolonged his layoff. Pineda originally joined the UFC in 2012, but after going 3-4 with three first round submission wins, three decision losses, and one R1 KO loss, he was released in 2014. He then returned to the regional scene, before getting re-signed by the UFC in 2020. He took on Herbert Burns in his return, who missed weight by 3.5 lb and looked terrible on the scale. Pineda finished Burns in R2 via ground and pound and Burns hasn’t won a fight since. Pineda then got knocked out by Cub Swanson in the second round of a December 2020 match and was about to get knocked out by Andre Fili in his second most recent fight before an accidental eye poke stopped the match early in round two, resulting in a No Contest.
Now 28-14 as a pro (plus three No Contests), Pineda has a 100% finishing rate with nine wins by KO/TKO and 19 submission victories. He’s also been knocked out three times, submitted six times, and has lost all five of the decisions he’s been to. All six of his submission losses came prior to 2011 and his last seven losses have all ended in either knockouts (3) or decisions (4). He turned pro all the way back in 2007, but has only seen the third round eight times in 45 pro fights. Pineda has fought a decent amount at both 145 lb and 155 lb, and even competed all the way up at 170 lb early in his career, but his last seven fights were all at 145 lb.
Overall, Pineda is an aggressive bonus hunter with a kill or get killed mentality. He’s a BJJ black belt and is dangerous both on the feet and the mat. He throws a lot of kicks as he constantly pushes forward. He hasn’t looked very durable, and when he’s unable to find a quick finish of his own, it generally results in him getting finished. Since returning to the UFC in 2020, he’s been taken down five times on 10 opponent attempts (50% defense), while landing just three of his own 13 takedown attempts (23.1% accuracy). At 37 years old, Pineda only has so many fights left in him, but this will be the first on his new five fight deal and it comes exactly 10 weeks after he last competed. He recently said he's gunning for the submission record that Charles Oliveira currently holds as he prepares to take on an opponent who’s been submitted seven times in his career.
Fight Prediction:
Caceres will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while also being three years younger than the 37-year-old Pineda.
Pineda is almost never in a boring fight, although Caceres is generally looking to slow things down and control the distance with his kicking game. That could make it tougher for the shorter Pineda to close the distance, but Caceres’ wide karate-style stance will leave his lead leg vulnerable to being attacked and Pineda loves to throw leg kicks. We expect that will be Pineda’s approach to slow down the movement of Caceres and eventually look to get the fight to the mat where he can hunt for a submission. However, Caceres’ takedown defense has looked improved recently, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep the fight standing. While Pineda hasn’t required the judges since 2016, Caceres’ fights more often than not go the distance and when they do end early it’s typically by submission, as only 3 of his last 27 fights have ended in KO/TKOs (2-1). Pineda is a BJJ black belt and hasn’t been subbed since 2010, but has been prone to getting knocked out. So if Pineda isn’t able to lock up a submission, which looks like the most obvious outcome on paper, things begin to get a bit murky. We’d be more surprised to see Caceres submit Pineda, although a club and sub is always possible. We could also see Caceres just pick Pineda apart from the outside for three rounds and outpoint his way to a decision or land another rare knockout. The clash of styles makes it a trickier one to predict and Pineda’s reckless style of fighting always makes him live for a finish but also impossible to trust. The only outcome that would really shock us here is Pineda notching his first career decision win and if it goes the distance Caceres should get his hand raised. However, even Caceres may have a tough time dragging Pineda to a decision and we’ll say this ends in a submission, with Pineda the more likely of the two to get it done in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Caceres has historically struggled to put up big DFS scores, averaging 85 DraftKings points in his 15 UFC wins. He’s only topped 98 points three times in 27 UFC appearances—his recent R1 TKO win where he scored 107 points, a 2017 R2 TKO win where he scored 105 points, and a 2016 decision victory where he scored 116 as he completely filled up the stat sheet. With that said, he’s shown a pretty decent floor recently, with DraftKings scores of 107, 91, 76, 98, and 92 in his last five wins. Now he gets a favorable uptempo matchup against an aggressive opponent who’s been finished nine times in the past. So while we’re generally not tripping over ourselves to play Caceres, especially when he’s expensively priced, this is a high-upside spot for him and he’s historically been low owned, which adds to his tournament appeal. However, with both Caceres and Pineda coming off early wins, they may both be a little more popular than in past fights. Caceres also only has two KO/TKO wins since 2010, which was also the year Pineda was last submitted. So it remains to be seen if Caceres can capitalize on Pineda’s suspect durability and land his second straight knockout. Overall, this is a volatile fight that could go a lot of ways and if Caceres slows the pace down early he could easily fail to score enough to be useful at his higher price tag with a later round finish. With a wide range of scoring outcomes on both sides, it’s tricky to take a really hard stand on this one, but both guys have solid upside and we’re always looking to target both sides of a Pineda fight. The odds imply Caceres has a 61% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Pineda has always scored well when he wins, with DraftKings totals of 102, 137, 103, 106 and 108 in his five UFC victories. However, his reckless fighting style is inherently volatile, making him a tough guy to trust. He’s also 37 years old and has a lot of wear on his body with 45 pro fights to his name. He hasn’t been to the judges since 2016 and has a kill or get killed mentality that is great for DFS production for whoever wins his fights. That will be tested here as he faces a durable and less powerful opponent who likes to operate at a more methodical pace. The smaller cage at the Apex should benefit Pineda and scoring in general, as Caceres will have less room to evade. Also working in Pineda’s favor, Caceres has been submitted seven times in the past and Pineda said this week that he’s got his eyes set on chasing down the submission record. Just keep in mind, Caceres has made improvements to his grappling and takedown defense and it’s been over four years since anybody submitted him. Nevertheless, that’s probably Pineda’s best path to victory and with all 28 of his pro wins coming early, if he pulls off the upset here he should score well and end up in winning tournament lineups. The odds imply Pineda has a 39% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Kai Kara-France
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Looking to bounce back from a third round TKO loss in a close Interim Flyweight title fight against Brandon Moreno, Kara-France has only required the judges once in his last five outings, after his first five UFC fights all went the distance. The only time he’s seen the scorecards in his last five outings was in his second most recent fight, which ended in a close decision win over Askar Askarov, who nearly submitted Kara-France in the first round. Prior to that, Kara-France took on a chinless Cody Garbrandt, who in an ill-advised move was attempting to drop down to 125 lb for the first time. Shockingly, Garbrandt’s chin didn’t improve after cutting even more weight and Kara-France knocked him out in round one. Kara-France landed another first round KO just before that, against Rogerio Bontorin, who nearly submitted Kara-France before having the tables turned. Against both Askarov and Bontorin, Kara-France did a great job of fighting the hands of his opponents to narrowly avoid getting choked out. However, just before knocking out Bontorin, Kara-France got submitted by Brandon Royval via second round guillotine following an insanely high-paced action-packed first round where Royval never stopped forcing the action. Kara-France’s only other UFC loss was a 2019 decision against Brandon Moreno, the first time they fought, and Kara-France is 0-3 against Brandons in the UFC but 7-0 against everyone else.
Now 24-10 as a pro, Kara-France has 11 wins by KO, three by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has four decision defeats. Two of his KO losses occurred in his first three pro fights from 2011 to 2012, and the only time he’s been knocked out since 2012 was from a liver kick in the third round of his last fight. Two of his three submission losses occurred in the first round of consecutive 2014 fights, with his other coming in the opening minute of round two against Royval in 2020.
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Kara-France’s career, but just his second in the UFC. Prior to joining the UFC, he was scheduled to go five rounds in a 2014 fight that ended in a first round submission loss to Mark Striegl and a 2015 match that ended in a first round knockout win. He then got finished in the third round from a Moreno liver kick in his recent UFC five-round fight, so he’s yet to ever see the championship rounds in his career.
Overall, Kara-France is a one-dimensional striker, but has shown both a solid takedown and submission defense. Still just 30 years old, he’s shown improvements in recent years and he’s part of the City Kickboxing team, so he trains with a bunch of high-level fighters. In his 10 UFC fights, his opponents have taken him down on just 5 of their 41 attempts (87.8% defense), while he’s landed four of his 16 attempts (25% accuracy). He’s only landed one takedown in his last seven fights, and for a guy that doesn’t look to grapple much he doesn’t land a ton of volume, averaging 4.70 SSL/min. He’s never landed or absorbed more than 91 significant strikes in a fight.
Amir Albazi
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Still undefeated in the UFC, Albazi is coming off a third round knockout victory over a debuting Alessandro Costa. That played out as a low-volume fight where Albazi didn’t land a takedown until the third round, after failing to land any of his first three attempts, but did finish with a pair of knockdowns. Prior to that, Albazi locked up a first round submission against an unimpressive Francisco Figueiredo, after winning a decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and securing another first round submission in his UFC debut against Malcolm Gordon. While Albazi hasn’t faced much in the way of competition so far in the UFC, that’s primarily due to the fact that opponents keep dropping out against him. He had fights booked against Raulian Paiva, Tim Elliott, Alex Perez, and Brandon Royval, but they all withdrew. He also had a fight scheduled against Ode Osbourne, which Albazi withdrew from. Four of his last six scheduled matchups have fallen through.
Now 16-1 as a pro, Albazi has five wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and two decision victories. Nine of those 14 finishes came in the first round, with four more ending in round two, and the most recent coming in round three. Five of his last six early wins ended in first round submissions and he’s coming off his first knockout win since 2015. His only career loss came in a 2019 decision and he’s never been finished. Albazi started his pro career off at 135 lb, but moved down to 125 lb in 2017, where he stayed until his short notice UFC debut, which was fought back up at 135 lb. He dropped back down to 125 lb following that match, and it appears that’s where he’ll stay.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Albazi’s career, so it’s hard to know what his cardio will look like in the championship rounds. That’s especially true considering only 3 of his 17 pro fights even made it to the 15 minute mark.
Overall, Albazi is a slick grappler who’s generally looking to put opponents away early on the mat, but relied more on his striking in his recent knockout victory, showing that he’s fairly well rounded. However, he only averages 3.54 SSL/min and has yet to top 68 significant strikes landed in a UFC fight, although those numbers are heavily impacted by his large amount of control time. In his four UFC fights, he’s landed six takedowns on 12 attempts (50% accuracy), while getting taken down once on three opponent attempts (66.7% defense). He’s a longtime friend and training partner of the Basharat brothers, who you’ll often see in his corner.
Fight Prediction:
Albazi will have a 1” height advantage, but Kara-France will have a 1” reach advantage.
As the odds suggest, this looks like a close fight that could go either way. It’s a massive step up in competition for Albazi, who just defeated a UFC newcomer and whose toughest test to date was Zhalgas Zhumagulov, who is 1-5 in the UFC. Meanwhile, Kara-France just fought for the interim Flyweight title after defeating one of the top contenders in Askar Askarov. The lopsided strength of schedule between these two makes it tougher to know just how good Albazi actually is, but he clearly has a major grappling advantage over Kara-France. However, Kara-France’s submission and takedown defense have both been elite, which could turn this into more of a striking battle. While Albazi’s striking has looked decent in a limited sample against lower-level opponents, he’s never faced as talented of a striker as Kara-France. We could see Kara-France come in with a somewhat cautious game plan designed around keeping the fight standing and not over extending himself on combinations and allowing Albazi to take him down. Albazi is also fairly patient so we could see a slower start as these two feel eachother out. Neither of them has ever been past the third round, so it’s also possible we see one or both of them look to manage their cardio some early on, which could also contribute to a somewhat slower pace. With that said, this is a Flyweight fight we’re talking about, so the potential for a higher pace is always there and Flyweight fights end in finishes more often than you might think (roughly 63% of the time over the last year and a half). Albazi will likely get this fight to the ground once or twice, but Kara-France has looked good enough defending submissions that it will be tougher for Albazi to find a finish. Because of that, we’re picking Kara-France to win either by knockout out in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Kara-France KO” at +450.
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DFS Implications:
Kara-France has been a boom or bust DFS commodity throughout his UFC career, with three DraftKings scores of 107 or more, but seven of 82 or less, including six below 65 points. The only two times he scored well in his last nine fights were in his only two finishes in the UFC, which both ended in first round knockouts. He scored just 53 DraftKings points and 51 points on FanDuel in his last three-round decision win, which even when extended over five rounds would have still only been good for 68 DraftKings points and 71 points on FanDuel. He’s landed just one takedown in his last seven fights, and we’d be surprised to see him try and take a dangerous grappler like Albazi down. That leaves him reliant on striking volume and/or landing a finish to score well. And with that in mind, Albazi has never been finished in his career, while Kara-France only averages 4.70 SSL/min and will have to constantly worry about Albazi trying to take him down. So all in all this doesn’t look like a great spot for Kara-France to score especially well. However, we haven’t seen Albazi face anyone decent yet in the UFC, so there’s always a chance Kara-France outclasses him on the feet while stuffing all of his takedown attempts and either knocks him out or lands enough volume to return value at his midrange price tag. However, it won’t be surprising if the winner fails to really score well and gets left out of the optimal lineup despite both fighters being reasonably priced. The odds imply Kara-France has a 49% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Albazi has finished three of his four UFC opponents, but all of those early wins came against a very low level of competition. So while he’s averaged 100 DraftKings points in his four UFC fights, it’s essential to acknowledge the level of competition he has been facing. He’s now going from fighting a guy making his UFC debut to the #3 ranked Flyweight who just competed for the interim belt, and step ups in competition don’t get much bigger than this. With that said, Albazi looks like a legitimate prospect and is dangerous both on the feet and the mat. However, it’s his grappling where he really excels and this is a tough matchup in that regard as he faces the really tough 87% takedown defense of Kara-France. We’ve also seen Kara-France get caught in some really sticky rear-naked chokes only to escape and come back to win, so even if Albazi does get the fight to the ground it won’t be easy to end things. And if Albazi can’t get his grappling going, he’ll have a tougher time scoring well through striking alone, as he only averages 3.54 SSL/min. His reasonable price tag does widen his range of useful outcomes, but in a low-volume striking battle we could still see him get left out of winning lineups in a decision win. Ultimately, this fight could go a lot of ways, with either guy capable of landing a finish or putting up a dud. Try and find ways to use that uncertainty to your advantage. The odds imply Albazi has a 51% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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