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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Charles Johnson
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Fresh off a close split-decision win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov in November, Johnson is jumping right back inside the Octagon. Prior to his recent win, Johnson got smothered on the mat for three rounds in his UFC debut by Muhammad Mokaev. To his credit, Johnson was at least able to avoid getting submitted by Mokaev and Johnson has at multiple points shown the ability to survive against dangerous grapplers, as his second most recent loss was in an LFA decision to Brandon Royval. Following that loss, Johnson won four straight leading up to the loss in his debut, with the last three of those wins coming in LFA Flyweight title fights.
In his last fight, we saw a high-volume back and forth brawl, with Zhumagulov finishing ahead in significant strikes in both of the first two rounds, while also tacking on a takedown in round two. Zhumagulov also tore up Johnson’s legs with inside kicks, landing 49 leg kicks in the fight. The fight was paused at multiple points for accidental groin strikes on both sides. Following the third pause in the action, Zhumagulov landed a kick to the inside of Johnson’s right knee area that left Johnson grabbing for his leg and compromised around the fence. It looked like a potential nerve injury and Johnson tried to shake it off by repeatedly stomping the mat, which actually appeared to work. Johnson then turned it up a notch for the remainder of the third round as Zhumagulov began to slow down. The fight ended with Zhumagulov narrowly ahead 119-115 in significant strikes while total strikes were dead even at 141 apiece. Johnson failed to land either of his takedown attempts, while Zhumagulov landed one of his four attempts.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Johnson has five wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses ending in decisions. His last seven fights all made it out of the first round, with five of those seeing the third round, and two seeing the fifth round of LFA title fights. Nevertheless, two of his last three wins have come by TKO.
Overall, Johnson is an uptempo striker with decent defensive grappling, but not a ton in terms of offensive wrestling. While we’ve seen him get taken down without too much trouble at times, he does a good job of returning to his feet quickly. He doesn’t appear to have a ton of power, but tends to wear on his opponents, with five of his eight career finishes coming beyond the first round. After getting taken down 12 times on 26 attempts in his debut against Mokaev, Johnson was only taken down once on four attempts in his last match.
Jimmy Flick
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Flick had been scheduled to face Jeff Molina here, but Molina withdrew and Johnson was announced as the replacement on December 5th.
After landing a mic dropping flying triangle first round submission win in his December 2020 UFC debut against Cody Durden, Flick abruptly announced his retirement from MMA. However, he’s now coming out of his two year “retirement” and it will be interesting to see how he looks following the extended layoff. He’s submitted his last four opponents and his last 12 fights have all ended in either submission wins (9) or KO losses (3). Prior to the win in his debut, Flick landed a third round submission on DWCS to secure his spot on the roster.
In his last fight, Flick got taken down by Cody Durden 30 seconds into the first round and Durden immediately took his back. Durden landed some big punches as he flattened Flick face down on the mat, but Flick was able to escape and return to his feet. Durden led the way in striking as Flick looked lost on the feet, but after Durden caught a high kick, Flick jumped into a flying triangle and finished it on the mat as Durden failed to escape. The fight ended with Durden ahead 21-6 in significant strikes and 30-7 in total strikes. Durden landed both of his takedown attempts with 81 seconds of control time, while Flick failed to land his only attempt.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Flick has 14 wins by submission and two decision victories. Both of his decision wins came in his first three pro fights and his last 13 wins have all come by submission. Of his 14 submissions, eight came in round one, three ended in round two, and three occurred in round three. He has four KO/TKO losses and one decision defeat. All of his early losses occurred in the later rounds, with three ending in round two and the other in round three. Flick fought primarily at 135 lb until 2020 when he dropped down to 125 lb.
Overall, Flick is a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu specialist who is a liability on the feet. While he is slick on the mat, he’s very hittable in the striking exchanges and his history of getting knocked out supports that. He’s a kill or get killed type of fighter and now we have to question his motivation after he retired for two years following his UFC debut. He’s landed two takedowns on four attempts in his last two fights, with both of those successful takedowns coming on DWCS. The last time he won a fight without landing a submission was 2011. And while Flick only has one UFC fight under his belt, he’s 32 years old and turned pro in 2010. If anything, we expect to see a worse version of Jimmy Flick after two years away, not a better one.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler battle, but Flick is far worse on the feet than Johnson is on the mat, and it’s not close. Who knows how Flick will look after two years away, and his standup game was already terrible to begin with. Johnson should dominate this fight on the feet and he’s proven at multiple points in the past that even if he does get taken down by high-level grapplers, he knows how to avoid getting submitted. We like Johnson to knock Flick out and we’ll say it happens in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Johnson R2 or R3 KO” at +330.
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DFS Implications:
Johnson is an uptempo striker, but doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling. While he doesn’t have a ton of power, he does a good job of wearing on his opponents and it doesn’t take a ton to knock Flick out. After getting dominated on the mat in his debut by a high-level grappler in Muhammad Mokaev, Johnson won a high-volume split decision in his last fight. Despite putting up a big striking total, Johnson still only scored 83 DraftKings points in the victory. At his high price tag in this next matchup, that pedestrian score should suppress Johnson’s ownership to some extent, despite his very favorable finishing odds. That makes him an interesting tournament play in this high-upside matchup and we expect Johnson to land a knockout and score well. A multi-knockdown performance would not be surprising. The odds imply Johnson has a 74% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Flick is a one-dimensional grappler who “retired” after his 2020 UFC debut and now hasn’t competed in two years. He lacks durability and cardio and looks very hittable. We also have to question his motivation and form now that he’s coming out of retirement and a long layoff. This looks like a really tough matchup for him to get the submission he needs to win, as Johnson has never been finished despite going up against several high-level grapplers. Flick was 37% owned on DraftKings in his UFC debut, and after he landed a highlight reel first round submission in that fight we expect the field to want to play him once again at his cheap price tag. That further reduces our interest in playing him, despite his past upside. It’s been 12 years since he won a fight without landing a submission, leaving him as a hail mary submission or bust play that will be overowned relative to his chances of finding a finish. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Dan Argueta
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Argueta had originally been scheduled to face Isaac Dulgarian, but it was announced Tuesday that Dulgarian was out and he would be replaced by UFC newcomer Nick Aguirre. After being a -190 favorite against Dulgarian, Argueta opened as a -500 favorite against Aguirre and the odds have only risen from there.
Argueta is stepping into his second UFC match and will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against Damon Jackson. A month after that loss, Argueta had shoulder surgery to correct an injury that he said had been plaguing him for his last five fights. Argueta originally tried to crack the UFC roster through The Ultimate Fighter, but ultimately lost a decision to Ricky Turcios, who went on to win the show. Argueta then returned to the LFA and rattled off three straight victories with a pair of finishes followed by a five-round split decision to secure the Vacant LFA Bantamweight Belt just a month before he made his UFC debut.
In Argueta’s last fight, Jackson immediately took him down, which ended up being the theme of the match. Jackson was able to control Argueta for over eight minutes in the first two rounds, but Argueta escaped late in round two and began mounting offense of his own. Argueta continued to lead the dance early in round three and looked like he could finish Jackson, but then Jackson was able to win a scramble late in the round and finish in top position to hang on to win a decision. The match ended with Jackson ahead in significant strikes 32-27, while Argueta led in total strikes 103-47. Jackson landed two of his four takedown attempts with nearly ten and a half minutes of control time, while Argueta landed one takedown on three attempts with close to three minutes of control time. Both fighters also had a reversal in a fight that played out mostly on the mat.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Argueta has two wins by TKO, four by submission, and two decision victories. Five of his six early wins occurred in the first round, with the other ending in a third round TKO. However, his last three and four of his last five fights have made it to the third round, with three of those going the distance. And that’s not even counting his decision loss on TUF, which doesn’t show up on his pro record as it technically counts as an exhibition match. His only official pro loss also went the distance and he’s never been finished.
Argueta turned pro in 2019 at 145 lb and then fought three straight fights at 150 lb Catchweight followed by another one at 145 lb. He then dropped down to 135 lb when he went on TUF, where he stayed until his recent short notice UFC debut back up at 145 lb. He has said that he wants to compete at both 135 lb and 145 lb, but needs a full training camp to make it down to 135 lb. In a recent interview, Argueta said he currently was in the high 160’s and regardless of whether he’s competing at 135 lb or 145 lb, he weighs 162-165 lb on fight day.
Overall, Argueta relies heavily on his college wrestling background and shoots for a high number of takedowns. He has solid top pressure and ground and pound, but doesn’t offer a ton off his back. He’s not an especially dangerous striker and while 75% of his wins have come early, it’s on the mat where he gets his finishes. He’s looked very hittable in the past and needs to improve his striking defense if he wants his chin to hold up long term, but he has proven himself to be durable up until this point. We saw Argueta get taken down and controlled in each of his last two fights and his takedown defense has been far from impenetrable. His takedown accuracy also hasn’t been great, but he often makes up for that with persistence as he’ll shoot for a high number of attempts. His best attributes appear to be his durability, cardio, and perseverance and he does a good job of wearing on his opponents. Argueta trains with Cub Swanson and it will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made coming into his second UFC appearance.
Nick Aguirre
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on just four days’ notice, the 26-year-old Aguirre only turned pro in April 2021 but has finished all seven of his opponents.He fought just four weeks ago and saw the second round for the first time in his career, before locking up a second round submission. Prior to that he had never been past the 2:32 mark in round one.
In his last fight, Aguirre did what he always does and landed a quick takedown. He then controlled his opponent for the entire round but was unable to do much damage on the mat. It was rinse and repeat in round two as Aguirre again landed a quick takedown, but this time was able to lock up a choke midway through the round.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Aguirre has three wins by KO/TKO and four by submission. Six of those finishes ended in round one, with the other ending in round two. Just keep in mind, Aguirre hasn’t faced any sort of real competition and has only faced two opponents who even had winning records (2-1 and 4-2).
Overall, Aguirre is a former D2 college wrestler who aggressively looks to get fights to the mat and then hunt for early finishes. He’s been highly effective with that game plan against ultra low-level opponents, but we’re skeptical that he’ll find the same level of success in the UFC. With that said, he’s still a young guy with plenty of time to round out his game, but he looks like a slot filler who was brought on too early for his own good.
Fight Prediction:
Aguirre will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
These former college wrestlers have somewhat similar styles as they’re both looking to get fights to the ground and hunt for finishes on the mat. However, while Aguirre has yet to face an iota of adversity in his career, Argueta was baptized by fire in his short notice UFC debut against a longtime veteran in Damon Jackson. Argueta also went five hard rounds in his second most recent fight, and has shown off his durability and cardio multiple times in the past. Considering Aguirre has never faced any legitimate competition or been in a fight that lasted longer than a round and a half, we have more questions than answers in terms of how he’ll stack up in the UFC. He’s looked dominant on the Indiana regional scene against low-level opponents, but this will be the first real test of his career. Working in Aguirre’s favor, Argueta’s takedown defense has been uninspiring. However, his submission defense and chin have both held up well. So while it’s not impossible that Aguirre lands a takedown early on, we would be shocked if he pulled off the upset. We expect Argueta to dominate this fight and finish Aguirre.
Our favorite bet here is “Argueta R3 or DEC” at +175.
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DFS Implications:
Argueta is mispriced on DraftKings due to a late opponent change after pricing was already released. Argueta is priced at $8,600 on DraftKings from when he was a -190 favorite against his original opponent, but is now all the way up to a -600 favorite. That clear mispricing will drive his ownership way up, making it harder to create unique lineups that include him in tournaments, but certainly not impossible if we see some other low owned fighters end up in the winning lineup. Argueta’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting is perfectly suited to the DraftKings scoring system, and he also has a 75% finishing rate in his eight pro wins. He’s going up against a debuting opponent in Nick Aguirre who turned pro less than two years ago, has never faced any legitimate competition, and took this fight on four days’ notice. While his high ownership is annoying, this is undoubtedly a good spot for Argueta to put up a big score and at his reasonable DraftKings price tag he’ll likely end up in the winning lineup if that happens. The odds imply he has an 82% chance to win, a 54% chance to land a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Aguirre finds himself in a near impossible spot to succeed, as he’s making his UFC debut on just four days’ notice and fought just four weeks ago. While he’s undefeated with seven finishes, he’s never faced any legitimate competition and doesn’t appear to be prepared for the UFC. With that said, his wrestling-heavy style of fighting is theoretically conducive to DFS production, especially on DraftKings. However, we’re not at all convinced that his skills will immediately translate and chasing his past results is a mistake. If we’re wrong, he has the potential to serve as a value play on DraftKings if he can grind out a decision on the mat, whereas he’ll still need a finish to be useful on FanDuel. The odds imply he has an 18% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Allan Nascimento
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC win and continuing to alternate wins and losses, Nascimento pulled off the upset in a decision against a previously undefeated Jake Hadley. Prior to that, Nascimento lost a split decision in his UFC debut against Tagir Ulanbekov. Nascimento is 4-3 in his last seven fights, with all three of those losses ending in split decisions. He’s so aggressive hunting for submissions off his back that he makes it tougher for judges to know who’s actually winning the fight, despite conventional wisdom saying it’s the fighter on top. Despite Nascimento being such a dangerous submission threat, 8 of his last 10 fights have gone the distance. Nascimento originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWSC Brazil in 2018, but lost a split-decision to Raulian Paiva in a relatively high-volume affair. Each fighter landed one takedown, Paiva on his only attempt and Nascimento on 10 attempts.
In his last fight, Nascimento took Hadley down 30 seconds into the first round after catching a kick and then tripping Hadley to the mat. Hadley did a good job of using his jiu-jitsu to escape bottom position as the two exchanged positions on the mat for the next couple of minutes. However, Nascimento ended up back on top midway through the round and at that point he was able to control Hadley for the remainder of the round. Similar to round one, Nascimento took Hadley down 30 seconds into round two and was able to control him for almost the entire round, until Hadley finally returned to his feet in the final minute. Hadley looked for a guillotine early in round three, and while he wasn’t able to finish it, he did at least use the attempt to end up in top position on the mat. As Hadley tried to gain full back control, he got too high and Nascimento was able to reverse the position. Hadley was able to return to his feet in the final 80 seconds and then looked for another choke as Nascimento shot for another takedown, but again was unable to complete it and once again found himself in bottom position, where Nascimento would finish the fight in an impressive grappling performance. Nascimento finished ahead in significant strikes 19-8 and in total strikes 36-26, while landing two of his four takedown attempts with 9:27 in control time and three reversals. Hadley had no official takedown attempts, but did have one reversal and 3:50 in control time, along with one official submission attempt.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Nascimento has two wins by TKO, 13 by submission, and four decisions. His last 10 finishes have all come by submission, with seven of those ending in round one, one in round two, and two in round three. All six of his career losses have ended in decisions, with the last three being split.
Overall, Nascimento fights somewhat similarly to Paul Craig, where he appears entirely comfortable working off his back, hunting for submissions out of his guard. That style of fighting makes it tougher to win decisions, so it’s not surprising to see that he’s gone just 4-6 with the judges in his career, but the fact that his last three decision losses were all split shows how close his fights have been from a scoring perspective. We’ve yet to see much of Nascimento’s striking in his first two UFC fights as they both took place almost entirely on the mat. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS Brazil fight, Nascimento has landed just 3 of his 15 takedown attempts (20% accuracy).
Carlos Hernandez
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Continuing to squeak out close decisions, Hernandez won a split decision in his UFC debut against Victor Altamirano, after also winning a split decision on DWCS to secure his spot in the UFC. Despite those two fights each being decided by a single scorecard, Hernandez has won eight straight matches since losing a decision in his 2017 pro debut.
In his last fight, we saw a slower start than we’re accustomed to out of Hernandez, although perhaps that can be attributed to two fighters making their respective UFC debuts. After an initial feeling out process, we saw the striking volume increase as the fight went on, while both fighters mixed in takedown attempts. Every round was close, but Hernandez finished ahead in significant strikes 84-79, while Victor Altamirano led in total strikes 92-90. Altamirano landed one of his four takedown attempts, while Hernandez landed two of his nine attempts. Control time was also almost dead even at 1:27-1:22 in what was a close fight that unsurprisingly ended in a split decision that ultimately went Hernandez’s way. Hernandez suffered a knee injury in that February 2022 fight and now hasn’t fought in 11 months.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Hernandez has never knocked anybody out, but has four submission victories and four decision wins. Three of those submissions came in round one, with the other ending in round two. His only career loss was a 2017 decision in his pro debut.
Overall, Hernandez has good movement and footwork and is generally looking to push the pace, but doesn’t have much power in his striking and isn’t a threat to knock anybody out. While his takedown accuracy isn’t great, he’s somewhat dangerous on the mat and does a decent job of controlling opponents once there. He’s prone to getting taken down himself, but he’s good at quickly scrambling to return to his feet. He’s been taken down six times on 20 opponent attempts (70% defense) in his last two fights, but was only controlled for 1:27 and 2:13 in those two 15 minute fights.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are listed by the UFC as being 5’8” but clearly that’s wrong and Nascimento is obviously taller and longer.
Hernandez is the more well rounded fighter in this matchup, but Nascimento is the superior grappler. Therefore, it would not be at all surprising to see Hernandez try and keep this fight standing so that he can try to outland his way to a decision win and not deal with the submission threat of Nascimento. With that said, Hernandez is far from helpless on the mat and generally does a good job of getting back up when he does get taken down. Both of these two fighters are habitually in close split decisions, with Hernandez’s last two decisions/wins both being split and Nascimento’s last three losses all coming in split decisions. That sort of seems like it sets up a little too well for this to end in another split decision, but it does show how close most of their fights are. However, the odds in this fight don’t expect it to be close, as Nascimento is a -375 favorite, which seems wide. Perhaps that can partially be attributed to Hernandez’s knee injury suffered in his last fight and subsequent 11 month layoff, although it’s hard to find much information on the injury, so it’s hard to know the severity. He did post a picture of himself in a hospital bed two months later, but didn’t list a reason for why (knee surgery perhaps?). Nevertheless, we expect this fight to end in another close decision that could go either way depending on who the judges are. That leaves all the betting value on Hernandez’s side of things, but the wide line has us somewhat suspicious regarding the severity of Hernandez’s knee injury. Considering he’s a fighter that relies heavily on footwork and movement, if the knee injury slows him down, he could be a sitting duck for Nascimento to take down. That uncertainty has us leaning Nascimento wins by decision in terms of our straight prediction, but we’ll be rooting for Hernandez from a financial perspective.
Our favorite bet here is “Hernandez DEC” at +460.
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DFS Implications:
Nascimento relies heavily on his grappling to win fights as he’s constantly looking to get fights to the ground and hunt for submissions. He has no problem working off his back, which isn’t ideal on DraftKings as it doesn’t accrue control time. Most of his efforts are devoted to trying to lock up submissions opposed to landing ground and pound, which has capped his scoring potential even in grappling heavy decision wins, He scored just 83 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, despite finishing with two takedowns, three reversals, and nine and a half minutes of control time. At his high price tag, that will make it harder for him to return value unless he either lands a submission or puts up a huge takedown total. Working in his favor, Hernandez does a good job of returning to his feet when he does get taken down, increasing the potential for Nascimento to chain takedowns together in a short amount of time. However, Hernandez can be a tough guy to track down and has never been finished in his career, so Nascimento’s path to returning value appears pretty narrow. The odds imply he has a 75% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Hernandez is a high-volume striker who will also mix in takedowns, although it will be interesting to see if he’s looking to take a submission specialist like Nascimento down. If he is, Nascimento has just a 16% takedown defense and has no problem ending up on his back. That creates some interesting scoring potential for Hernandez, especially at his cheap price tag. However, if Hernandez decides he wants to play it safe and keep this fight standing as much as possible, it will be harder for him to score well off striking alone if Nascimento is constantly looking to grapple. That leaves Hernandez with uncertain scoring potential depending on what his game plan is, but at his cheap price he squarely in the value play discussion regardless. He’s never knocked anybody out and Nascimento has never been finished, so it’s unlikely we see Hernandez land a finish. The odds imply he has a 25% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Javid Basharat
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Fresh off a decision win over a tough Tony Gravely, Basharat has won decisions in both of his UFC fights after landing 11 straight finishes prior to joining the organization. Just before defeating Gravely, Basharat won a decision in his March 2022 UFC debut over Trevin Jones. Looking back one fight farther, Basharat punched his ticket to the UFC with a 2021 R3 submission win on DWCS. Prior to going on DWCS, he had never even seen the third round.
In his last fight, Basharat got split open above his eye early in the fight from an accidental clash of heads. Gravely was able to land two takedowns in the round, but couldn’t control Basharat for very long and then Basharat landed a takedown of his own late in the round. Basharat didn’t allow another takedown for the rest of the fight and commanded the later rounds as he finished ahead in significant strikes 80-33 and in total strikes 106-39. Gravy only landed 2 of his 13 takedowns attempts with 1:43 in control time, while Basharat landed 2 of his 4 attempts with 3:13 in control time.
Now 13-0 as a pro, Basharat has five wins by TKO, six by submission, and two decisions. All five of his TKO wins occurred in round one, as have two of his submission victories. He also has two second round submission wins and one in round three. His last two finishes came by submission in the later rounds. After eight of his first nine pro wins ended in the first round, his last four have all seen the second round, with his last three making it to round three.
Overall, Basharat is a very well rounded fighter who’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat. He’s light on his feet, does a masterful job of controlling distance, and has good movement. He avoids taking unnecessary damage and is a tough opponent to deal with. He has a Taekwondo background, which is evident when you see him throw kicks, but he also seamlessly mixes in his grappling and likes to look for chokes on the mat. He has a solid 87% takedown defense, while he lands 55% of his attempts. After winning decisions over two tough opponents in his first two UFC appearances, now he’ll take on a newcomer and we could be in store for a statement performance as Basharat tries to work his way to the rankings.
Mateus Mendonca
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut off a 48 second R1 KO win on DWCS, Mendonca has only fought the one time since October 2020. So he hasn’t been very active lately, after fighting seven times the year he turned pro in 2019 and then twice more in 2020. Still undefeated, three of his last four wins have come in the first round, but he’s also gone the distance in three of his last seven fights.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it. Mendonca dropped his opponent, Ashiek Ajim, with a right hand 45 seconds into the first round and then finished the job with a big left as Ajim tried to return to his feet. Mendonca finished ahead in striking 9-4 in a fight that lasted just 48 seconds.
Now 10-0 as a pro, Mendonca has three wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and three decision victories. All seven of his finishes occurred in the first round, while all of his fights that lasted longer than five minutes ended with the judges.
Overall, Mendonca trains at Chute Boxe with Charles Oliveira and is a pretty well rounded fighter with a good gym around him. He’s not overly impressive anywhere, but he’s also still just 23 years old and likely improving everytime we see him. He shoots for a good number of takedowns, with average accuracy, and is typically hunting for submissions on the mat, although he’s only completed one in his last seven fights. We generally see him pushing forward and forcing the action and likes to throw flying knees to work his way into the clinch along the fence. However, he’s still somewhat methodical with his pace and isn’t a reckless brawler who just throws caution to the wind.
Fight Prediction:
Basharat will have a 3” height advantage, but Mendonca will have a 2” reach advantage. Basharat is also four years older than the 23-year-old Mendonca.
Basharat faced a pair of tough opponents in his first two UFC fights, and while he won both of those, he was unable to find a finish either time. It seems like the UFC is giving him an easier matchup here against a 23-year-old newcomer so that Basharat can build his name up with a more exciting finish, even though his last two performances were skillfully impressive in their own right. While Mendonca is undefeated, he only has 48 seconds of cage time in the last 27 months and is still early in his career. He’s never fought anyone like Basharat, and this is one of the tougher debuts you could ask for. While Basharat didn’t appear to be really pushing for a finish in either of his last two fights, we expect him to make a more concerted effort to find a finish here. He’s dangerous enough to land either a knockout or submission at any point in this fight, but his patient style makes a later round finish a little more likely, and we’ll say he wins by third round TKO.
Our favorite bet here is “Basharat ITD” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Basharat has been impressive in terms of his ability to neutralize opponents and win fights with relative ease, but that hasn’t translated to DFS production as he scored just 83 and 66 DraftKings points in his two UFC appearances, both of which ended in decision victories. Prior to joining the UFC, he finished all 11 of his pro opponents, so he clearly has finishing upside, we just haven’t seen it yet at the UFC level. His combination of striking and grappling give him the potential to score well even with a later round finish and his third round submission win on DWCS would have been good for 114 DraftKings points and 115 points on FanDuel. After two disappointing DFS performances and now priced as the third most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate, we should see Basharat’s ownership come in relatively low, despite the fact that he’s facing a 23-year-old UFC newcomer who only has 48 seconds of cage time in the last 27 months. That makes Basharat a really interesting tournament play and a solid lower-owned pivot off of the other top priced fighters. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Mendonca will be making his debut with a perfect 10-0 pro record that includes seven first round finishes, but he’s never faced anyone like Basharat and this is an incredibly tough spot for him to succeed. Mendonca is still just 23 years old and has only fought once in the last 27 months, which was his recent 48 second R1 KO win on DWCS. That leaves a lot of uncertainty surrounding his current form, and we don’t know what his cardio will look like in the back half of this fight. He is a well rounded fighter who trains at a prestigious gym in Chute Boxe, so perhaps we’ll be interested in playing him down the road in a more favorable matchup, but it’s hard to see him pulling off the upset here and we would look elsewhere for playable dogs. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Mateusz Rebecki
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Rebecki had been scheduled to fight Omar Morales here, but Morales dropped out and Fiore was announced as the replacement 16 days out.
Making his UFC debut following a first round submission win on DWCS, Rebecki has won 13 straight fights and was the longtime FEN Lightweight champion in Poland. He won the vacant FEN Lightbelt belt back in 2018 and then successfully defended it seven straight times before going on DWCS. While the most recent of those defenses ended in a five-round decision victory, he landed nine straight finishes before that.
In his last fight, Rebecki ate an early head kick and then immediately took his opponent, Rodrigo Lidio, to the mat. After a minute or so on the ground, Lidio was briefly able to return to his feet, but it wasn’t long before Rebecki slammed him back to the ground. Rebecki rode top position for another minute until Lidio made a mistake and tried to turn into him. Rebecki immediately looked to lock in a choke from an unorthodox position, and despite the positioning he was able to force a tap. The fight ended with Lidio ahead 3-0 in significant strikes, while Rebecki led 8-3 in total strikes. Rebecki landed two of his four takedown attempts with 2:41 in control time in a fight that only lasted three minutes and five seconds.
Now 16-1 as a pro, Rebecki has eight wins by KO, six by submission, and two decisions. His only loss occurred in a 2014 R2 knockout in his fourth pro fight. He bounced back from the loss with 13 straight wins and 10 of his last 11 victories ended early. The only time he’s required the judges since 2017 was in a five-round FEN Lightweight title fight just before he went on DWCS. He has nine first round finishes, one in round two, three in round three, and one in round four.
Overall, Rebecki is a powerful Polish wrestler with a BJJ background. He aggressively pushes forward looking to land both takedowns and heavy strikes. His stocky build can make it harder for him to find his striking range against taller/longer opponents, but his threat of wrestling allows him to feint takedowns while landing big looping shots. Once he does close the distance, he’s a serious problem in the clinch and quickly gets opponents to the mat. His biggest obstacle appears to be his size, but he’s shown the ability to walk through strikes to get his hands on his opponents and overall he’s very well rounded. He’s more experienced than your typical debuting fighter and we expect him to hit the ground running and be a problem in the division.
Nick Fiore
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Stepping into his short notice UFC debut on just over two week’s notice, Fiore has just six pro fights to his name and two of those were against Jay Ellis (16-106 pro record) so they don’t really count. With that said, he’s finished all six of his opponents in the first round, even if he has been facing a low level of competition on the New England regional scene. Fiore is part of the New England Cartel and despite being just 25 years old, he’s a Renzo Gracie BJJ Black Belt and Calvin Kattar’s BJJ coach. That may say more about Kattar’s grappling than Fiore’s skills, but take it for what it’s worth.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Fiore has two wins by TKO and four by submission, with all of those victories coming in under four minutes. Only two of his six pro wins have come against opponents with winning records and he really hasn’t faced any legitimate competition. One of the two opponents with a winning record has lost 12 straight boxing matches after losing his last four MMA fights before that, showing you the type of guys he’s been facing.
Overall, Fiore looks like a one-dimensional grappler and doesn’t appear to offer much in terms of striking. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than four minutes, so his cardio remains a mystery, which is especially concerning considering he took this fight on short notice. Fiore’s extremely limited experience makes it hard to have much confidence in him at the UFC level, but he has looked like a decent grappler, so it will be interesting to see how that translates to the next level.
Fight Prediction:
Fiore will have a 4” height advantage, 6” reach advantage, and is five years younger than the 30-year-old Rebecki.
Both of these two come from grappling backgrounds, but Rebecki is vastly more experienced and also the far superior striker. We generally see Rebecki look to get fights to the mat, but in a matchup like this it would make sense for him to keep it standing, as Fiore’s only real chance of winning will be to lock up a submission on the ground. With that said, Rebecki can win this fight anywhere he chooses and the odds of him getting submitted are very low. While Rebecki has the ability to both submit opponents and knock them out, eight of his last nine finishes have come by knockout and now he’s facing a BJJ black belt. That means he’s more likely to land a knockout than a submission here, but both are in play. However he does it, we like Rebecki to dominate this fight and find a finish. Considering Fiore has never been past the first round and took this fight on 16 days’ notice, it would make sense for him to slow down as the fight goes on, increasing the odds he gets finished late in the fight—if he even makes it that long. We’ll say Rebecki wins by third round knockout, but we won’t be at all surprised if he ends it earlier.
Our favorite bet here is “Rebecki KO” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Rebecki’s aggressive, wrestling-heavy approach to fighting looks tailor-made for DFS production. He’s won 13 straight fights, with 10 of his last 11 wins coming early. A longtime Polish champion, Rebecki is far more experienced than your typical debuting fighter, giving us more confidence that he can excel in his first fight with the UFC. He’s also going up against a very inexperienced fighter who took this fight on just over two weeks’ notice, so this looks like a prime spot for him to go off. The one knock on him is that he’s pretty short and sometimes struggles to find his range at times in the striking exchanges when facing taller opponents. However, Fiore looks like a one-dimensional grappler, and we fully expect Rebecki to dominate on the feet. As long as Rebecki doesn’t trip into a submission, he should have his way with Fiore in this fight, and we expect him to find a finish and put up a big score. The odds imply he has an 84% chance to win, a 63% chance to land a finish, and a 35% chance it comes in round one.
Fiore is a jiu-jitsu coach for the New England Cartel, despite being just 25 years old. He’s a Renzo Gracie BJJ Black Belt, but has very limited MMA experience and we expect him to have some serious growing pains as he’s thrust into the UFC at such an early stage in his career. He’s faced nothing in terms of real competition and has never been in a fight that lasted longer than four minutes, as he’s finished all six of his low-level opponents in the first round. He looks like a hail mary submission or bust play and we don’t have much of any interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 16% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Abdul Razak Alhassan
11th UFC Fight (5-5)Continuing to struggle since he returned to action in 2020, Alhassan is just 1-4 in his last five fights and is coming off a split-decision loss to Joaquin Buckley. Alhassan’s only win in those five matches came in a 17 second R1 KO against Alessio Di Chirico, who went 1-5 in his last five fights before recently retiring and stepped into that fight on just a week’s notice. Alhassan started his pro career 10-1, before taking nearly two years off from late 2018 to mid 2020. Upon his return, he lost a decision to a debuting Mounir Lazzez and then got planked by Khaos Williams 30 seconds into the first round of his next match, which remains the only time he’s ever been finished. After missing weight for both of those fights, Alhassan moved up to 185 lb in 2021 and got smothered in a wrestling-heavy decision loss to Jacob Malkoun. Alhassan then bounced back with the KO win over Di Chirico leading up to his recent decision loss to Buckley. The move up in weight didn’t appear to do Alhassan any favors as he’s looked slower and less explosive.
In Alhassan’s last fight, we saw a lot more wrestling from Joaquin Buckley than we had in previous fights, as Bucklety took Alhassan down five times on eight attempts after landing just one takedown in his first five UFC matches combined. Three of Buckley’s takedowns came in the first round, with the other two coming in round two, and it was actually Alhassan who took Buckley down three times in round three. We’re accustomed to seeing Alhassan fade after the first round in fights, but it was actually Buckley who wilted down the stretch in that fight, as Alhassan finished the fight strong looking for ground and pound from top position as Buckley simply hung on and tried to survive the final round. The fight ended with Buckley narrowly ahead 51-46 in significant strikes, 57-55 in total strikes, and 5-3 in takedowns. Alhassan actually led in control time 3:34-2:05, but the majority of his production came in the third round once Buckley began to fade.
Now 11-5 as a pro, all 11 of Alhassan career wins have come by round one KO. He’s also been knocked out in the first round once himself and has dropped all four of the decisions he’s been to. Alhassan fought anywhere from 170 lb to 190 lb early in his pro career, before settling in at 170 lb when he made his 2016 UFC debut. He went 4-1 in his first five UFC fights leading up to his extended layoff. He then missed weight twice trying to hit 170 lb and lost both of those fights. He then moved up to 185 lb for his last three fights (1-2).
Overall, Alhassan is now 37 years old and only has one win since 2018. While he’s a Judo black belt, he’s only attempted a takedown in 3 of his 10 UFC fights, landing 5 of his 11 total attempts (45.5% accuracy). He landed a career best three takedowns on four attempts in his last match, although it was Buckley who originally instigated the wrestling and all three of Alhassan’s takedowns came in the third round when both guys were slowing down.
Claudio Ribeiro
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a 25 second R1 KO win on DWCS, Ribeiro has knocked out six straight opponents, with five of those ending in round one. He’s spent his entire career fighting in Brazil, and has gone up against a lot of dubious competition. With that said, he’s shown the power to knock out one opponent after the next, although it will be interesting to see how that translates to the UFC.
His DWCS fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it. Ribeiro started the fight with a couple of leg kicks and then landed a massive left hand that dropped his opponent and ended the fight in 25 seconds. The fight ended with Ribeiro ahead 4-0 in striking.
Now 10-2 as a pro, all 10 of Ribeiro’s wins have come by knockout, with eight ending in round one, one coming in round two, and the other ending in round five. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a first round submission in his 2017 pro debut. His one other loss was a 2018 decision. Ribeiro fought at 170 until 2019 when he moved up to 185 lb following an uninspiring decision loss.
Overall, Ribeiro is a one-dimensional striker who started his training in boxing before moving to Muay Thai and allegedly jiu-jitsu. He hasn’t shown anything in terms of offensive grappling and has no interest in going to the mat. His takedown defense and ability to get back up are decent, but don’t expect him to look for any takedowns of his own. He can be a little wild with his striking, but when he connects he does damage and he’ll also mix in leg kicks. Look for him to struggle when he goes against competent wrestlers, but he’ll face a fellow striker in his upcoming debut.
Fight Prediction:
Ribeiro will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. He’s also seven years younger than the 37-year-old Alhassan.
Both of these two are powerful strikers who look to knock opponents out in the first round. All 11 of Alhassan’s career wins have come by R1 KO, as have 8 of Ribeiro 10 victories, with his other two wins ending in later round KOs. Neither guy has ever won a decision and they both used to fight at 170 lb before moving up to 185 lb. Alhassan is theoretically the superior grappler, being a Judo black belt, but they’re both generally looking to keep fights standing. So you can see they have numerous similarities, however, Alhassan is now 37 years old and has gone 1-4 in his last five fights, while Ribeiro has won six straight. You never know how fighters will handle the pressure of making their debut, but Ribeiro did punch his ticket to the UFC in this same Octagon at the Apex just four months ago. They each have the power to knock the other out and neither has really impressed us too much. We tend to agree with the oddsmakers that this is essentially a coinflip and will most likely end in a first round knockout. We’ll give the slight advantage to Ribeiro, mostly based on how bad Alhassan has looked over his last five fights since returning. We also think that if it makes it out of the first round there’s a good chance it goes the distance, despite what the odds say. Ribeiro by R1 KO is the official pick, but we won't be surprised if this fight slows down after the first round and ends in a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +425.
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DFS Implications:
Alhassan is as clear cut of a R1 KO or bust fighter as you’ll ever see, with all 11 of his career wins coming by R1 KO. Three of his five UFC knockouts have come in under 60 seconds, making him a strong candidate for a quick-win bonus. He’s put up DraftKings scores of 125, 131, 107, 121, and 150 in his wins, and his slate-breaking ability always results in him being popular. Just keep in mind, he’s gone just 1-4 in his last five fights since returning from an extended layoff and the majority of his career was spent down at 170 lb before he moved up to 185 lb for his last three fights. Since the move, two of his last three matches have gone the distance. He’s now 37 years old and his only knockout since 2018 came in his second most recent fight against a short notice replacement who went 1-5 in his last six fights before recently retiring. So while this looks like a prime spot for either guy to land a knockout, just keep in mind Alhassan is littered with red flags. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 40% chance to get a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Ribeiro is a one-dimensional striker who offers nothing in terms of grappling and relies on landing knockouts to win fights. We’ve seen him struggle with getting controlled along the fence, which creates one path for how he fails. However, all 10 of his career wins have ended in KOs, with eight of his last nine finishes coming in round one. While Alhassan has only been finished once in his career, that came in a 30 second first round KO back in 2020, so we have seen his chin fail him before. Alhassan’s other three recent losses all went the distance, and even at his mid range price tag, Ribeiro is unlikely to return value without a finish. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Umar Nurmagomedov
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Coming off his first trip to the judges since 2019, the undefeated Nurmagomedov won a decision against Nathan Maness in his last fight after submitting his previous three opponents. Prior to the win over Maness, Nurmagomedov submitted Brian Kelleher in the first round after landing a second round submission in his January 2021 UFC debut against Sergey Morozov.
In his last fight, Nurmagomedov dominated Maness from start to finish. Nurmagomedov was able to take Maness down three times on four attempts, while controlling him for nearly 11 minutes. Nurmagomedov landed a takedown in each round and patiently ground out a decision on the mat. He finished ahead in significant strikes 74-2 and in total strikes 128-46, while landing three of his four takedown attempts. The only disappointing part of the performance was his inability to find a finish.
Now 15-0 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has one TKO win on his record (R2 2017), seven submission victories, and seven decision wins. All seven of his submission wins have occurred in the first two rounds, with four ending in round one and three in round two. Three of his last four submissions came in round one.
Overall, Nurmagomedov has some of the slickest kicks you’ll ever see and throws up question mark kicks like he’s whipping you with a wet towel. A cousin of Khabib, the 26-year-old has really solid grappling in addition to his striking and has landed 9 takedowns on 20 attempts in his three UFC fights (45% accuracy). He’s typically looking to finish fights with rear-naked chokes, which is how he locked up his last six submission victories.
Raoni Barcelos
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Fresh off a dominant decision win over Trevin Jones, Barcelos snapped a two fight skid after dropping decisions to a debuting Victor Henry and a tough Timur Valiev. Barcelos has fought to five straight decisions and the last time we saw one of his fights end early was in 2019. It was nice to see a vintage Barcelos performance in his last outing following the two disappointing efforts.
In his last fight, Barcelos did a good job of mixing in striking and grappling and also avoiding taking any damage. He didn’t allow Jones to land more than five significant strikes in any of the rounds or more than seven total strikes. Barcelos finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 73-11 and in total strikes 119-15 in the lopsided affair. He also landed two of his five takedown attempts with seven minutes of control time, while stuffing both of Jones’ attempts and not allowing Jones to control him for a single second in the fight.
Now 17-3 as a pro, Barcelos has eight wins by KO, two by submission, and seven decisions. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a 2014 R2 submission. His other two losses both went the distance. His last 11 fights have all seen the second round, with eight making it to round three, and seven going the distance. After starting his career at 145 lb, Barcelos dropped down to 135 lb following his UFC debut, where he’s stayed since.
A BJJ coral belt with a wrestling background, Barcelos is a well rounded fighter who has solid striking, wrestling, and submission skills. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and all three of his early wins in the UFC occurred after the nine minute mark. He has an elite 93% takedown defense, and has only been taken down once in the UFC on 16 opponent attempts. That lone takedown occurred in his 2018 UFC debut, and he hasn’t been taken down in his last seven fights. On the other side of things, he’s landed 12 takedowns of his own on 28 attempts (42.3% accuracy). He both lands and absorbs a good amount of strikes, averaging 5.82 SSL/min (Most on the slate) and 4.94 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate).
Fight Prediction:
Nurmagomedov will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also nine years younger than the 35-year-old Barcelos.
This will be Nurmagomedov’s toughest test to date, although the same could be said for Barcelos. Both of these two are well-rounded, high-level fighters, who are dangerous anywhere fights go. It wouldn’t be that surprising if their skillsets canceled each other out to some extent, but we still like Nurmagomedov’s side of things. Barcelos has been so good at defending takedowns, it will be interesting to see how much success Nurmagomedov can have getting this fight to the ground. While Nurmagomedov throws lightning fast kicks, he hasn’t knocked anybody out in his last 12 fights and Barcelos has never been knocked out. So if Barcelos can keep it standing, look for this fight to end in a decision. And if Nurmagomedov can get the fight to the ground, Barcelos is a very high level grappler and has only been submitted once in his career. So while a submission win for Nurmagomedov is more likely than a knockout, a decision victory is still the most likely outcome here and that’s how we’re predicting this to go. However, the oddsmakers agree with us and Nurmagomedov’s decision line is essentially unbettable at its current price.
Our favorite bet here is “Nurmagomedov R1 or R2 SUB” at +440.
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DFS Implications:
Nurmagomedov continues to score well in DFS, with DraftKings totals of 105, 105, and 112 in his three UFC fights. He’s shown the ability to score well through his grappling even when he doesn’t land a finish, but this looks like a really tough spot for him to dominate on the mat for three straight rounds as he faces the elite 93% takedown defense of Raoni Barcelos. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but it is far less likely than normal. Nurmagomedov doesn’t land enough striking volume to score well without either a finish or a dominant wrestling performance and Barcelos has only been finished once in his career. That makes it tougher to get excited about playing Nurmagomedov here, especially when you factor in his price tag and projected ownership. We’re treating him as a submission or bust option and despite being the biggest favorite on the slate, we want to be underweight on him in all contest types. The odds imply he has a 87% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Barcelos is coming off a dominant decision victory where he still scored 101 DraftKings points despite being unable to find a finish. He’s now gone the distance in five straight fights and is stepping into an incredibly tough matchup against an undefeated young phenom. While Barcelos’ cheap price tag and past scoring success may be somewhat tempting to jam him in as a value play, it’s hard to see him pulling off the upset and even tougher to see him scoring well if he does. Nurmagomedov is a very dangerous kicker and solid wrestler, which will make it tougher for Barcelos to find his range and have much grappling success. That will really limit Barcelos’ chances of scoring well in a decision, and even at his cheap price tag he may need a finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 13% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Ketlen Vieira
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Coming off a close/questionable five-round split-decision win over Holly Holm, Vieira has fought to four straight decisions since getting knocked out by Irene Aldana in 2019. Vieira has won two straight five-round decisions and is trying to make her case to be the next 135 lb title contender. Prior to defeating Holm, Vieira won a five-round decision over Miesha Tate, after losing a close three-round decision to Yana Kunitskaya. Vieira has consistently been involved in close fights that generally come down to a single round or even a single scorecard to determine a winner.
In her last fight, we saw extended periods of time with Holm pushing Vieira up against the cage, as Holm finished with just over 10 minutes of control time. However, Holm failed to land any of her six takedown attempts, while Vieira landed just one of her seven attempts. Holm finished ahead 96-85 in significant strikes and 188-122 in total strikes, but two of the three judges scored the fight 48-47 for Vieira, while the other had it 48-47 for Holm.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Vieira has two wins by KO, four by submission, and seven decisions. Other than her 2019 R1 KO loss to Aldana, the only time she’s lost a fight was in a close 2021 decision against Yana Kunitskaya. Seven of her nine UFC fights have gone the distance (6-1), with three of those wins being split. Vieira is a BJJ and Judo black belt and the only time she has finished anybody in the UFC was when she submitted Sara McMann late in the second round of a 2017 fight. Her second most recent finish was all the way back in 2015, prior to joining the UFC, but the first five wins of her career all did come early, and all in the first two rounds, albeit against opponents with a combined 1-1 pro record. She won her first 10 pro fights, including her first four in the UFC, but has since gone just 3-2 in her last five.
Overall, Vieira has good size, power, and grappling, but has yet to really put it all together and show she has what it takes to be a champion at the UFC level. However, she is a former Brazilian national wrestling champion and Vieira loves to look for leg locks from defensive positions and arm-triangles from top position. She’s landed 14 takedowns on 35 attempts (40%) so far in the UFC, and has an elite 92% takedown defense. She’s only been taken down twice on 26 attempts in her nine UFC fights and only once in her last six matches.
Raquel Pennington
17th UFC Fight (11-5)Entering this matchup on a four fight winning streak, Pennington hasn’t lost a fight since Holly Holm beat her in January 2020. Six of Pennington’s last seven fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a submission win over Macy Chiasson, who took the fight on short notice. Pennington’s most recent win came in a decision over Aspen Ladd, in a fight that Pennington stepped into on short notice.
In her last fight, Pennington took an early striking lead as Ladd struggled to find her range and failed to land her only takedown attempt in the first round. Pennington continued to lead the dance in striking in round two, but Ladd was significantly more aggressive than she had been in her previous fight. Ladd finally got something going in round three as she landed her first takedown of the fight just under two minutes into the round. Pennington was able to return to her feet, but Ladd hung onto her back and tried to drag her back to the mat. However, Ladd was unable to hold Pennington on the ground and instead pressed her up against the cage until the fight ended, with Pennington winning a unanimous 29-28 decision. Pennington landed a career high in significant strikes as she finished ahead 114-65 and 136-102 in total strikes, while Ladd landed 2 of her 4 takedown attempts and Pennington missed on her only attempt. Ladd also led in control time 2:56-1:42.
Now 14-8 as a pro, Pennington’s only career KO/TKO win came in the second round of her 2012 pro debut. She also has four submission wins and nine decision victories. All four of those submissions came in the first two rounds of fights, with three of them coming early in her career from 2012 to 2015. The only time she’s ever been knocked out was in the fifth round of a 2018 title fight against Amanda Nunes. The only time Pennington has ever been submitted was in the second round of a 2012 fight against Cat Zingano. Pennington’s other six losses all went the distance. Her last 13 fights all made it to the second round and only 2 of her 22 pro matches ended in the opening five minutes. Her five UFC losses have all come against top level opponents in Holly Holm (twice), Germaine de Randamie, Amanda Nunes, and Jessica Andrade.
Overall, Pennington has only landed more than 82 significant strikes twice in 16 UFC fights, although she is coming off a career best 114 significant strikes landed. She’s also failed to land more than one takedown in her last nine matches and is a little too comfortable grinding out decision wins in the clinch along the cage at times. In fairness, she was far more aggressive in her last match and seems to be trying to put on more exciting fights as she makes her case for being the next title contender. Pennington has a 63% career takedown defense and just a 28% takedown accuracy.
Fight Prediction:
Vieira will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is three years younger than the 34-year-old Pennington.
Vieira is bigger, younger, has a better takedown defense, and should be the superior offensive grappler in this fight. However, something always just feels a little off with her and she fails to really separate herself from her competition. Meanwhile, Pennington is quietly on a four fight winning streak and could put herself in the title conversation with a win over the #2 ranked Vieira in this matchup. Pennington is also about to have a baby with Tecia Torres and hasn’t fought since last April, so she should be motivated to maximize her paycheck here, especially considering Torres isn’t competing at the moment. So if Vieira again comes out sort flat, look for Pennington to jump to an early lead, which could be enough for her to squeak out a close decision. We’d be surprised if this fight ends early and we’re picking Pennington to win by decision, in a fight we expect to be close and potentially split when it comes to the score cards.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Vieira is coming off back-to-back five-round decision wins, but only scored 79 and 84 DraftKings points in those two victories. She has scored similarly in her four UFC three-round decision wins, where she averaged 80 DraftKings points. In her lone early win in the UFC, Vieira still only scored 89 points in a second round submission, which is the most points she’s ever scored in a fight. So we’ve yet to see her ever score well, although her wrestling background does at least create the potential for her to score well if she can put it all together for three straight rounds. Pennington has been taken down at least once in four straight fights and has just an average 63% takedown defense, so it’s certainly possible that Vieira can dominate this fight on the mat. She projects to be low owned on DraftKings, which is a big plus for tournaments on a smaller slate like this where it will be hard to get unique, but we still don’t have much confidence that Vieira scores well here. Perhaps we’ll see a more inspired performance out of her as she tries to make her case for getting the next title shot in the division, but that remains to be seen. She’ll either need a finish or to dominate this fight on the ground to score well. The odds imply she has a 53% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Pennington landed a career best 114 significant strikes in her last fight and still scored just 83 DraftKings points. In her 11 UFC wins, she averaged 84 DraftKings points with eight decisions and three submission victories. If we just look at her eight decisions, her average drops to 78 points, with just one score above 83 points, which was when she scored 93 against an aging/struggling Marion Reneau. Now Pennington will square off against a massive opponent with an elite 92% takedown defense, so she’s less likely to pad her score with any grappling. She also only averaged 3.93 SSA/min, and likely needs a finish here to score well unless this somehow turns into a wild brawl. The odds imply Pennington has a 47% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Punahele Soriano
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Soriano is coming off a second round knockout of Dalcha Lungiambula, who’s been finished in three straight fights and is just 1-5 in his last six outings. Prior to that, Soriano lost a pair of decisions to Nick Maximov and Brendan Allen, after landing first round knockouts in his first two UFC fights. The loss to Allen was the first time Soriano had ever tasted defeat, after starting his career off 8-0 with seven first round finishes.
In his last fight, we saw a slow paced start between the two powerful fighters before Lungiambula knocked Soriano to the mat with a heavy leg kick. Lungiambula initially went to the mat with Soriano during that sequence but his corner yelled at him to return to his feet. However, once Soriano connected with some big shots late in the round, Lungiambula had no choice but to look to grapple as he took Soriano down. However, he just clamped onto him on the mat and didn’t inflict any damage on the ground. Soriano returned to his feet, but Lungiambula never let go and returned him to the mat in the final 30 seconds of the round with a big cardio draining slam. As Lungiambula returned to his corner he pawed at his rib, which appeared to be injured or dislocated. Soriano then dropped Lungiambula with a massive left hand in the opening 30 seconds of round two and quickly finished him with ground and pound. The fight ended with Soriano ahead 17-11 in significant strikes and 19-17 in total strikes. Lungiambula landed both of his takedown attempts, while Soriano failed to land his only attempt.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Soriano has six wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision victory. Seven of his eight finishes occurred in round one, with the most recent ending 28 seconds into round two. All three of his career fights to last longer than five and a half minutes have ended with the judges (1-2). He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance. All three of Soriano’s UFC wins ended in knockouts.
Overall, Soriano is a violent striker and was also an All-American collegiate wrestler. While he’s gone just 1 for 3 on takedowns in his four UFC fights, he theoretically has his wrestling to fall back on when things get hairy, and he notably landed three takedowns on DWCS back in 2019. He’s said in the past that he uses his wrestling to keep fights on the feet so he can look for knockouts, although he more recently mentioned that he has the wrestling background and maybe he should use it. So who knows if he’ll begin to mix in more takedown attempts at some point. Impressively, Soriano has notched five knockdowns in his three UFC wins, but failed to land a knockdown in either of his two losses and relies on landing early bombs to win fights.
Roman Kopylov
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Fresh off his first UFC win following a pair of losses, Kopylov landed a third round knockout against Alessio Di Chirico, who lost five of his last six fights and then promptly retired after the loss to Kopylov. Prior to that win, Kopylov lost a decision to Albert Duraev, after getting submitted in the third round of his 2019 UFC debut against Karl Roberson. With just three UFC fights in a little over three years with the organization, Kopylov has struggled with fight cancellations and he’s pulled out of four fights and had another one canceled due to COVID. There was nearly a two year gap between his debut and his second UFC appearance, and then almost another full year before his third UFC match. So this will be by far his quickest turnaround after fighting just four months ago.
In his last fight, Kopylov showed an improved takedown defense as he was able to successfully defend all four of Di Chirico’s takedown attempts. That allowed Kopylov to keep the fight where he wanted it on the feet. As we’re accustomed to seeing out of Kopylov, there wasn’t a ton of striking volume and the first two rounds appeared pretty close, but two of the three judges gave him both of the rounds and we tend to agree. Then, early in round three Kopylov face planted Di Chirico with a combination of strikes in a walk off knockout. The fight ended with Kopylov ahead in significant strikes 59-39 and in total strikes 66-43.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Kopylov has eight wins by KO and one by decision. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has one decision defeat. Only one of his eight KO wins occurred in the first round, while two came in round two, three ended in round three, and two occurred in round four. After winning a decision in his 2016 pro debut, he landed seven straight knockouts leading up to his 2019 UFC debut. His last five fights all made it at least to the third round, but only one of those has gone the distance. His last three wins ended in third and fourth round knockouts and the last time one of his fights ended in the first two rounds was in 2017.
Overall, Kopylov is a crisp but patient striker and doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling, with just one takedown landed on three attempts in his three UFC fights. He averages just 3.44 SSL/min and failed to top 59 significant strikes landed in any of his three UFC fights, despite all of them making it to the third round. He has an 87.5% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 16 attempts, but really struggled on the mat both times he was taken down, and looks completely helpless on his back. Sitting on a 1-2 UFC record, Kopylov is likely fighting for his job here.
Fight Prediction:
Kopylov will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
We’re expecting this to play out as a striking battle, but if Soriano’s smart he’ll look to mix in some wrestling. Kopylov is a solid striker but turns into a turtle on his back, however, Soriano hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last four fights. That makes it tougher to know what his game plan will be, but if we had to guess, we’ll say he at least tries to shoot for a takedown or two. Whether or not he completes it is a different story, and Kopylov’s takedown defense looked improved in his last fight after he spent some time training in Dagestan. While Soriano is the more powerful puncher, Kopylov does a better job of straightening out his punches and mixing in snappy kicks. Neither guy lands a ton of volume, but Kopylov has a history of landing late knockouts, while all eight of Soriano’s finishes have come in under five and a half minutes. Soriano definitely slows down later in fights and doesn’t look nearly as dangerous in the later rounds, so if Kopylov can make it to the back half of the fight, we like his chances of pulling off the upset in a decision. Neither guy has ever been knocked out and Soriano doesn’t look like much of a threat to capitalize on Kopylov’s poor submission defense. No one should ever be surprised by Soriano landing an early knockout, but we like Kopylov to survive the first round and narrowly outland his way to a decision win to save his job.
Our favorite bet here is “Kopylov DEC” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Soriano put up slate-breaking DraftKings scores of 128 and 124 in a pair of knockouts that each included two knockdowns in his first two UFC appearances, but followed that up with a pair of disappointing decision losses where he scored exactly 27 points each time. He then found some middleground most recently, when he landed a second round knockout that was good for just 87 points. That occurred in the opening 30 seconds of the round, which is basically the worst case scenario in terms of timing, but he only averages 3.95 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown in his five UFC appearances. That makes it tougher for him to score well in fights that make it out of the first round and now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been knocked out. While Soriano would be wise to wrestle here against the one-dimensional striker in Kopylov, we can hardly rely on that as Soriano is rarely looking to get fights to the mat. He also tends to slow down later in fights and we’re treating him as a R1 KO or bust option. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Kopylov is a low-volume striker who has knockout power and good quickness, but doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling and has looked helpless on his back. He’s coming off his first UFC win, which came in a third round knockout, but it still only scored 80 DraftKings points. Soriano looks durable and has never been finished, so this isn’t a favorable spot for Kopylov to land another finish. While he has a good shot at outlanding his way to a decision win in a lower volume fight, that’s unlikely to score well in DFS on either site. Even at his cheaper price tag, Kopylov will have a tougher time serving as a value play without a finish in the first two rounds, unless this ends up being a slate where only one or two underdogs win. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Dan Ige
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Desperate for a win, Ige has lost three straight and four of his last five. All four of those losses ended in decisions against really tough opponents in Movsar Evloev, Josh Emmett, The Korean Zombie, and Calvin Kattar. Two of those decision losses were in five-round fights. Despite facing one brutally tough opponent after the next, Ige has still never been finished in his career. His only win in his last five fights came in a 22 second round one KO win over Gavin Tucker. After losing a decision to Julio Arce in his 2018 UFC debut, Ige rattled off six straight wins, with four of those going the distance. His two finishes over that stretch came against Mike Santiago, who was cut following the loss and has lost five of his last six fights, and Danny Henry, who has been finished in the first round in his only two fights since 2018. So the only time Ige has finished a decent opponent in the UFC was when he knocked out Tucker. Three of Ige’s last four wins ended in decisions, with two of those being split.
In his last fight, Ige showed off his toughness early as he ate a flying knee midway through the first round. After the first half of the round remained on the feet, Evloev began mixing in his wrestling and officially notched three takedowns on six attempts in the opening five minutes. Ige got taken down another time towards the end of the second round, and then five more times in round three. While Ige was able to land some shots of his own in the striking exchanges, he had no answer for the wrestling of Evloev, who won every round as he cruised to a decision victory. The fight ended with Evloev ahead in significant strikes 68-42 and in total strikes 144-47, while he landed 9 of his 16 takedown attempts with 6:47 in control time.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Ige has four wins by KO, five by submission, and six decisions. All six of his losses have gone the distance and he’s never been finished. Six of Ige’s nine early wins have come in the first round and all three of his UFC finishes have occurred in the opening 77 seconds of fights, with two ending in 50 seconds or less. His other eight UFC fights all went the distance (4-4), with two of those wins ending in split decisions. All four of his career KO wins have come in round one, while three of his five submission victories have ended in the later rounds.
Overall, Ige is a durable fighter who’s shown the ability to recover from early adversity. Despite being a BJJ black belt and Judo brown belt, as well as a former college wrestler, he’s struggled with both his takedown accuracy (25%) and defense (51%). The only time Ige has won a UFC fight without landing at least one takedown was when he knocked out Tucker 22 seconds into the first round. Ige has been taken down 17 times on 35 attempts in his 12 UFC fights, and was also grounded four times on eight attempts in his DWCS appearance in 2017. He got taken down nine times in his last fight, and while Josh Emmett didn’t attempt any takedowns just before that, Ige got taken down three times on five attempts against The Korean Zombie, who hadn’t landed a takedown in nine years going into that fight. Now Ige will face another grappler and unless he lands a quick knockout we should see his poor defensive wrestling exposed once again.
Damon Jackson
10th UFC Fight (5-2-1, NC)Blazing in on a four fight winning streak, Jackson is fresh off a first round TKO win over Pat Sabatini, who had won his previous six fights leading up to that loss. That was Jackson’s first KO/TKO win since 2018 and only his second since 2013, and he’s primarily known for his submissions. Jackson has won six of his last seven fights, with his only loss over that stretch coming in a violent R1 knockout against Ilia Topuria. His chin has been his one concern, with his last three losses all ending in KOs. Jackson originally joined the UFC in 2014 and did everything but win in his first three fights, notching a 0-1-1, NC record before getting cut following a 2016 draw. After getting dropped by the organization, Jackson fought 10 times outside of the UFC from 2016 to 2020, going 8-2 before getting called back up. In his September 2020 return to the organization, nearly five years after being released, Jackson pulled off the short notice upset in a comeback win against Mirsad Bektic. In a fight he was losing badly, Jackson landed a R3 guillotine to steal the victory and notch his first UFC win. He then got knocked out by Topuria, but bounced back with a decision win over Charles Rosa. Jackson followed that up with a second round submission victory over Kamuela Kirk, and then a decision win over a debuting Dan Argueta, leading up to his recent first round TKO over Sabatini.
In his last fight, Jackson landed a front kick 30 seconds into the first round that badly hurt Sabatini, who then stumbled forward on wobbly legs as he tried to buy time to recover through grappling. Jackson then swung Sabatini onto his back and began landing heavy ground and pound. That forced Sabatini to give up his back and Jackson flattened him out and continued landing big shots until Sabatini verbally tapped just 69 seconds into the first round. The fight ended with Jackson ahead in significant strikes 11-1 and in total strikes 16-1. That victory occurred just days after Jackson’s brother passed away.
Now 22-4-1 as a pro, Jackson has four wins by KO/TKO, 15 by submission, and three decisions. He’s been finished in all four of his career losses, with three KOs and one submission. He would have two submission losses, but a 2015 R1 submission defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for a banned diuretic. Jackson’s only official submission loss came in his 2014 UFC debut against a striker in Yancy Medeiros. Thirteen of his last 15 fights have ended early and he’s only been to four decisions in 28 pro fights. However, both of those decisions came in his last four fights. Jackson started his career at 155 lb before dropping down to 145 lb in 2013.
Overall, Jackson is primarily a submission threat but has shown some improvements to his striking. He’s known for his cardio and generally does a good job of wearing down his opponents, although we saw him slow down late in his second most recent fight. His biggest weakness has been his chin and his last three losses have all ended in knockouts, with the last two of those ending in the first round. Jackson has landed 14 takedowns on 35 attempts (40% accuracy) in his eight UFC fights, while getting taken down by his opponents 12 times on 21 attempts (42.9% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 4” height advantage, but both fighters share a 71” reach. Ige is three years younger than the 34-year-old Jackson.
Ige’s most glaring weakness has been his defensive wrestling, which isn’t encouraging for his chances as he squares off against a relentless grappler in Damon Jackson. Ige has lost the last three fights where he’s conceded a takedown and Jackson has landed at least one takedown in all four of his recent wins. However, Jackson has been knocked out in his last three losses, and Ige has shown the ability to land quick knockouts at multiple points in the past. We’re certainly not eliminating the possibility that Ige lands something clean early in round one to notch another quick KO victory, but as the odds indicate, it’s far from the most likely outcome. Ige has looked less dangerous later in fights and he hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round since 2017. While Jackson has only been to four decisions in 27 pro fights, two of those occurred in his last four matches and Ige has never been finished. That has us leaning that Jackson wins by decision here, but a submission victory is also possible.
Our favorite bet here is “Jackson ML” at +105.
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DFS Implications:
Ige has been a boom or bust DFS producer with three DraftKings scores of 110 or more in his three early UFC wins, all of which came in the first round. He’s averaged just 77 DraftKings points in his four decision victories and lacks both the striking volume and takedown numbers to score well without a finish. Working in his favor, Ige has demonstrated clear knockout power and Jackson has been knocked out in his last three losses. However, Jackson will be looking to get this fight to the ground and Ige’s defensive wrestling has been pretty terrible. So if Ige can’t land something clean early on, he’ll likely find himself on his back before long. That likely leaves him as a R1 KO or bust option in DFS. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in the first round.
Jackson struggled to score well/win in his first stint with the UFC, but has seemingly made the necessary adjustments since returning to the organization and has now rattled off four straight wins. He averaged 100 DraftKings points in those four victories, with three scores of 101 or more. While he showed the ability to score well even without a finish when he notched 113 points against Charles Rosa, he only scored 80 points in his most recent decision win, showing a fairly wide range of scoring outcomes with the judges. With that said, his wrestling-heavy approach to fighting is perfectly suited to the DraftKings scoring system, whereas he’s more reliant on landing finishes to score well on FanDuel. Working against him, Ige has never been finished in his career, and has faced much tougher competition than Jackson. However, even if this does go the distance, Jackson’s cheap price tag keeps him in the value play discussion, especially on DraftKings. We’ve also seen Ige struggle with getting taken down, so this looks like a favorable matchup for Jackson to find wrestling success, as long as he doesn’t get knocked out before he can get the fight to the ground. The odds imply Jackson has a 49% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Nassourdine Imavov
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Imavov had been scheduled to face Kelvin Gastelum here and was a -210 to -230 favorite in that matchup depending on where u looked. Then Gastelum dropped out and Strickland stepped in on Monday with very little time to prepare.
Stepping into his first headlining opportunity in the UFC, Imavov is coming off a decision win over Joaquin Buckley, after landing a pair of second round TKOs against Edmen Shahbazyan and Ian Heinisch. All five of Imavov’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with three going the distance. He won a decision over Jordan Williams in his October 2020 UFC debut, but then lost a majority decision to Phil Hawes leading up to his current three fight winning streak. The loss to Hawes is the only defeat Imavov has suffered in his last 10 outings.
In Imavov’s last fight, Buckley tried to mix in some wrestling, but failed to land any of his three attempts, while Imavov took him down twice on seven attempts. Imavov was able to control Buckley for periods of time on the mat in all three rounds and also outlanded him 51-46 in significant strikes and 68-55 in total strikes on his way to a decision victory. Imavov appeared to be slowing down in the third round, which is notable as he prepares for a five-round fight.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Imavov has five wins by KO, four by submission, and three decisions. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a R1 guillotine choke in his 2016 pro debut. His other two losses both ended in decisions. Imavov notably fought most of his career at 170 lb before moving up to 185 lb when he joined the UFC. All nine of his early wins ended in the first two rounds, with the first seven finishes of his career coming in round one and the last two ending in round two.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Imavov’s career so we don’t know what his cardio will look like in the championship rounds. Only 5 of his 15 pro fights have even made it past the second round.
Overall, Imavov is a powerful striker and a decent grappler. He trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and seems to be constantly improving, which makes sense considering he’s still just 26 years old. He has a solid left jab and good size for the Middleweight division, which makes it tricky to close the distance on him. In his five UFC fights, he’s been taken down 5 times on 21 opponent attempts (76.2% defense), while landing 4 of his own 17 attempts (23.5% accuracy). Imavov likes to defend takedowns with guillotine attempts, although we haven’t seen him submit anybody since 2019.
UPDATE: Imavov weighed in at just 194 lb. Note: the fight was moved from 185 lb to 205 lb after Strickland filled in on short notice.
Sean Strickland
18th UFC Fight (12-5)In an unlikely turn of events, Strickland will be headlining his second straight card after Gastelum dropped out. Strickland just lost a close five-round split decision to Jared Cannonier in the final fight of 2022. That was Strickland’s second straight loss after getting knocked out by Alex Pereira in July 2022, and now he runs the risk of going on a three fight skid.
In his last fight, we saw a close back and forth striking battle with only one takedown attempted in the fight, which Strickland landed in the first round after catching a kick from Cannonier. The striking totals were nearly even in every round, with Strickland finishing ahead in four of the five rounds by a narrow margin. That made it a tough fight to score, which was evident on the scorecards as there wasn’t a single round in the fight that all three judges agreed on. Two judges scored the fight 49-46 for Cannonier, while the other had it 49-46 for Strickland. In a largely uneventful technical striking battle, Strickland finished ahead in significant strikes 152-141 and in total strikes 157-141.
Now 25-5 as a pro, Strickland has 10 wins by KO, four by submission, and 11 decisions. He has three decision losses, while both of his early losses ended in first round knockouts. The first of those knockout losses came in 2018 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a 170 lb fight and the most recent coming in his last fight against Alex Pereira at 185 lb. Those are the only two times in Strickland’s last 16 matches that we’ve seen his fights end in the first round. Eleven of his last 16 fights have gone the distance, while all three of his early wins over that stretch came in rounds two and three. He’s won five of the last six decisions he’s been to.
Strickland joined the UFC in 2014 at 185 lb, but after starting out 2-0 he moved down to 170 lb for a three year stretch from 2015 to 2018 where he went 5-3. Following a 2018 R2 TKO win at 170 lb, Strickland was forced into a 2-year layoff following a motorcycle accident and a career-threatening knee injury. Upon his return, he moved back up to 185 lb where he has since gone 5-2, extending his UFC 185 lb record to 7-2.
This will be Strickland’s 4th five-round fight in the UFC. His previous three all ended in decisions (1-2), with his recent loss to Cannonier after he defeated Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson. Strickland also had five fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC, all of which he won, with three first round knockouts and two decisions.
Overall, Strickland likes to constantly inch forward while pumping out his jab, as he appears content with outpointing his way to victory. He’s shown us at multiple points that he’s far more concerned with securing wins than looking for finishes, but he also recently demonstrated that he would rather lose a striking battle than win a wrestling match. In his seven fights since returning to 185 lb, Strickland has landed six takedowns on eight attempts. Four of those takedowns and six of those attempts were against Uriah Hall. Strickland is 12-1 in the UFC when he’s led in striking and 0-4 when he’s trailed, and his success stems almost entirely from his ability to outland his opponents.
UPDATE: Strickland weighed in at 204 lb, 10 lb heavier than Imavov.
Fight Prediction:
Imavov will have a 2” height advantage, but Strickland will have a 1” reach advantage. Imavov is five years younger than the 31-year-old Strickland.
It’s rare to see a short notice replacement in a main event, but not unheard of. Paul Felder stepped in on less than a week’s notice and lost a five-round split decision to RDA back in November 2020. RDA’s next fight was also against a short notice replacement in a five-round fight when he defeated Renato Moicano in another decision. Tony Ferguson moved from a three-round matchup to a five-round fight after weigh-ins at UFC 279 and ended up getting submitted by Nate Diaz in the fourth round. Bobby Green accepted a five-round fight on short notice against Islam Makhachev and got finished in the first round back in February 2022. We also saw Aspen Ladd step into a short notice five rounder and lose a terrible decision to Norma Dumont in October 2021. A May 2021 fight between Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson was elevated from three rounds to five on short notice after the original main event fell through, and Rodriguez went on to win a decision. The one other example we could find was Jorge Masvidal stepping in on short notice to face Kamaru Usman in July 2020, where Usman won a decision. So historically, we’ve generally seen these short notice five-round fights go the distance.
It will be interesting to see how Imavov’s cardio holds up considering this will be his first five-round fight and he looked to be slowing down in the third round of his last fight. We’re also curious to see how Strickland looks in the later rounds after taking this fight on such short notice. The fight was moved from 185 lb to 205 lb, a weight class neither guy has ever fought at, so each guy will be carrying some additional weight but the cut should be easy. It’s never gone well for the five-round fighters stepping in on short notice in the past, so we’re inclined to go with Imavov here, but we do worry some about his cardio in the championship rounds. We also wonder if he shares those concerns and comes in a little more tentative, trying to preserve his cardio. That could result in a slower paced striking battle that ends in a close decision, which is what we’re predicting will happen. We’d be somewhat surprised to see this fight end early and could see either guy winning a decision, but we’ll take Imavov in what looks like a near coinflip.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Imavov is overpriced on DraftKings following the late opponent change, which should keep his ownership somewhat in check despite facing a short notice replacement here in Sean Strickland. However, Imavov has yet to score more than 98 DraftKings points in any of his five UFC fights, and started to slow down in the third round of his last match. He only scored 71 DraftKings points in that recent decision win and even if we extend his numbers in that fight over the course of five rounds, we would still only be looking at 98 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel. That’s not terrible, but likely not enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups. That would also require him to keep up his three-round pace over the course of five-rounds, which seems unlikely. In his pair of second round UFC finishes, he scored 98 and 94 DraftKings points, despite both of those coming in the back half of the second round. While he’s a dangerous striker and a decent grappler, we haven’t seen the volume out of him to really score well without a first round finish. Working in his favor, Strickland stepped into this fight on just five day’s notice so he had little time to prepare. However, that also means Imavov didn’t have much time to prepare for Strickland’s style of fighting. In this type of situation, we often see more generic game plans with extended feeling out periods, which would not be beneficial for either guy in DFS. Strickland has a really solid 85% takedown defense and rarely looks for takedowns of his own, increasing the chances that this plays out as a pure striking battle. While we should see enough striking volume for both guys to have a decent floor, that leaves each of their scoring ceilings in question. Imavov makes sense as a low-risk option, but we’re less excited about him in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Strickland has fought to five-round decisions in three of his last four fights. In his recent five-round split-decision loss, he scored 68 DraftKings points and 97 points on FanDuel. Had that decision gone his way we would have been looking at 98 and 117 points on the respective sites. In his two five-round decision wins he put up DK/FD totals of 93/112 and 144/156. So he’s shown both a solid floor and ceiling in five-round fights, but he also had full camps to prepare for all of those matches. With so little time to prepare for this one after just accepting the fight on Monday, we should definitely temper our expectations. Over the last two and half years, no one has filled in as a short notice replacement in a five-round fight and won. Paul Felder, Renato Moicano, Tony Ferguson, Bobby Green, Aspen Ladd, and Jorge Masvidal all tried, and they all came up short. That’s still a relatively small sample size, but it’s not encouraging for Strickland’s chances. Strickland also hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat recently, so his best hope will be to slow the fight down and outland his way to a decision win. We’d be surprised if he tried to wrestle any, leaving him reliant on putting up a big striking total to score well. Imavov only averages 2.43 SSA/min, which also isn’t encouraging for Strickland’s chances of scoring well. However, at Strickland’s cheap price tag, he still has the potential to serve as a value if he can pull off the upset, keeping him somewhat in play. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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