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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
SeungWoo Choi
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Desperate for a win, Choi has dropped three straight and is coming off a late R1 KO loss to Michael Trizano, who had previously never finished anybody in his other six UFC fights. That fight started fast with a rare double knockdown 20 seconds into the first round and was fireworks for the entire first round, as both guys had eachother hurt. However, Trizano was fighting for a new contract, in front of his home crowd, with a baby on the way, and it was just his night as he landed the final blow that knocked Choi down late in the round and pounced on him for the stoppage. Prior to that, Choi took part in another wild brawl and nearly got knocked out again, but survived to lose a split-decision. That came just after Choi got submitted in the second round by Alex Caceres, in a fight where Choi nearly landed a first round knockout himself. So he’s been involved in one wild fight after the next, but none of them have gone his way. The last time Choi won a fight was in a 2021 R1 knockout win over Julian Erosa and there have been seven total knockdowns in Choi’s last four fights, with him landing three of those. However, Choi’s prior two UFC wins both went the distance and Erosa is the only fighter he’s finished in the UFC.
Now 10-6 as a pro, Choi has six wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. Four of his knockouts ended in round one, another came in round two, and one ended in round four. He’s also been knocked out twice in the first round himself, submitted twice in the later rounds, and has two decision losses. Three of his last four losses ended early and he was nearly finished in the other one. While he’s only landed one knockout in eight UFC fights, prior to joining the UFC, five of his seven wins were by knockout, including three in the first round.
Overall, Choi is a solid but one-dimensional striker and has struggled in grappling exchanges. In his eight UFC fights, he’s landed 5 of his 10 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 13 of their 39 attempts (66.7% defense). All of those attempts against him came in his first four UFC matches, and his last four opponents haven’t even tried to get him down. While he’s been involved in some crazy brawls lately, he still only averages 3.43 SSL/min and 3.19 SSA/min. Choi lives and trains in South Korea, which is just an hour ahead of Singapore time and not too far of a plane ride away, so his travel to Singapore won’t be nearly as hard as most fighters on this card. Choi was also on the last Singapore card when he lost to Culibao.
Jarno Errens
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Errens is 11 months removed from a split/majority decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against a fellow debuting fighter in William Gomis, who took Errens down three times and controlled him for eight minutes. Errens wasn’t able to do much in the fight and finished behind in significant strikes 20-32 and in total strikes 31-69. The only reason the decision wasn’t unanimous for Gomis is that some rogue French judge gave out an ultra rare 10-10 third round, while also somehow scoring round two for Errens, despite him clearly losing the round. Just four weeks prior to that loss, Errens won a decision with Brave FC, after losing a five-round decision for the NFC Vacant Featherweight belt just before that. Errens’ last three and five of his last six fights went the distance (2-2-1), with two of those decisions being split/majority (0-1-1). His only fight in his last six to end early was a 2021 67 second first round knockout, with his second most recent finish ending in a 13 second knockout win. So his recent results have been very polarized between decisions and quick finishes. His last three fights all included large amounts of control time, with very little striking, and he came very close to going 0-3 in those fights, but narrowly squeaked out a decision win in his second most recent match, where he got controlled for seven minutes in the match.
Now 13-4-1 as a pro, Errens has three wins by KO/TKO, five by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has three decision losses. Four of his eight early wins ended in the first round, three ended in round two, and one finished in round three.
Overall, Errens is a Dutch kickboxer with solid power, but has been very vulnerable to being controlled on the mat. In fairness to him, he’s said he’s been working on that and he’s still just 28 years old and still trying to round out his skillset. He’ll often try to defend takedowns by going for guillotines, and will look for various chokes on the mat in addition to armbars, and he nearly locked up a submission off his back late in the third round of his recent UFC debut. He got taken down three times on five attempts in the fight, while failing to land either of his own two takedown attempts. It’s rare to see much striking volume in his matches and most of his fights end in either grappling-heavy decisions or quick finishes.
Fight Prediction:
Choi will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
We’ve seen both of these two fighters struggle against grapplers in the past, but Errens has at least shown some grappling improvements, while Choi is still entirely reliant on his striking. That creates the potential for Errens to look to grapple some here, but it also won’t be surprising if we see more of a pure striking battle. Choi has been involved in one wild fight after the next, but unfortunately none of those recent scraps have gone his way and he desperately needs a win here to avoid losing his fourth straight fight and potentially getting cut. Both of these two fighters have solid power, but Errens has been the more durable up to this point and Choi can get pretty reckless with his striking and has a suspect 45% striking defense. That should open up opportunities for Errens to catch him with something clean and Errens is also capable of submitting Choi. While Errens has been prone to getting taken down and controlled, Choi is a terrible candidate to capitalize on those weaknesses, as he doesn't offer much of anything in terms of grappling. And while Choi is capable of either handing Errens the first knockout loss of his career or outlanding his way to a decision, stylistically, Errens appears better suited to capitalize on Choi’s weaknesses than the other way around. This should be a fun, action-packed fight that could go either way, but we’re leaning towards Errens pulling off the upset finish as an underdog.
Our favorite bet here is “Errens ITD” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Choi is a solid striker, but his one-dimensional fighting style and lack of volume generally leaves him reliant on landing an early knockout to score well. He did have one high scoring decision win earlier in his career where he totaled 103 DraftKings points, but it was pretty flukey as it was propped up by a ton of control time and clinch strikes, along with a knockdown. His other decision victory scored just 69 DraftKings points and is more representative of what we can expect from him when he doesn’t land a finish. Even a later round knockout may not be enough for him to return value at his high price tag, unless it includes multiple knockdowns. He’s lost three straight and is on the brink of being cut, so you never know if he’ll dial back his aggressiveness, but he’s come out swinging in his last few fights. Now he’s facing a young, powerful Dutch kickboxer who’s never been knocked out, but has struggled with being controlled. Maybe Choi will come in with an ultra conservative approach and just try to hold Errens up against the cage to try and get a win by any means necessary to save his job, but that’s definitely not what we’re expecting after seeing Choi’s last four crazy fights. Ultimately, Choi looks reliant on handing Errens the first knockout loss of his career to score well. The odds imply Choi has a 59% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Errens has been involved in a lot of low-volume grappling-heavy decisions lately, but that has more to do with how his opponents have been looking to attack him than his own game plan. He’s a Dutch kickboxer with solid power and some submission skills, but he’s been prone to getting taken down and controlled, so it makes sense that’s how opponents have been looking to attack him. Choi is a one-dimensional striker who doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of grappling, so Errens should have more opportunities to operate in space here. However, neither one of these two land a ton of striking volume, as they’re more concerned with landing kill shots. That leaves both fighters more reliant on landing a finish to score well, and neither of them lands many takedowns. Working in Errens’ favor, Choi has been finished in four of his six losses, and Errens is capable of either knocking him out or submitting him. And at his cheap price tag, it’s always possible Errens could serve as a value play even in a decision win. The odds imply Errens has a 41% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
JJ Aldrich
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Looking to bounce back from an absolutely abysmal performance, Aldrich got absolutely spanked for three straight rounds in a decision loss to Ariane Lipski, who had been knocked out in three of her previous four fights and came in as a +280 underdog. Despite Aldrich throwing up on herself as a -360 favorite in that fight, the bookmakers are undeterred and installed her as a massive -600 favorite to start this week. Aldrich pathetically failed to land any of her 12 takedown attempts against the meh 55% takedown defense of Lipski, while Lipski landed both of her takedown attempts against the previously solid 75% defense of Aldrich. Maybe Aldrich came into that fight hiding an injury, but she didn’t even look like her normal mediocre self as Lipski outlanded her 101-49 in significant strikes, in addition to winning the grappling exchanges. Prior to that loss, Aldrich got submitted in the second round by Erin Blanchfield, but at least gave a good account of herself, as she was impressively able to stuff all four of Blanchfield’s takedown attempts, but got caught with a standing guillotine midway through round two that ended the fight. Leading up to her recent pair of losses, Aldrich won three straight decisions over Cortney Casey, Vanessa Demopoulos, and Gillian Robertson, after losing a 2020 split decision to Sabina Mazo. Aldrich also has a win over Polyana Viana on her record and overall has fared quite well against grapplers. Ten of Aldrich’s 12 UFC fights have gone the distance (7-3), while she got knocked out by Maycee Barber in the second round of a 2019 match, in addition to her second round submission loss to Blanchfield.
Now 11-6 as a pro, Aldrich has two wins by R1 KO/TKO (2015 & 2016) and nine decision wins. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision defeats. Her first submission loss occurred in her second pro fight, while her two knockout wins also came very early in her career. After three of her first four career fights ended early, Aldrich has gone the distance in 11 of her last 13 fights, and other than the submission loss to Blanchfield her only other UFC fight to end early was a 2019 R2 TKO loss to Maycee Barber in Aldrich’s first fight at 125 lb, after she moved up from 115 lb, where she started her career.
Overall, Aldrich has okay boxing and has started mixing in more takedown attempts recently. After she landed just one takedown on two attempts in her first three 125 lb UFC fights, she landed 8 on 33 attempts in her last five fights. She has a solid 70% career takedown defense, and four of the nine times she’s been taken down came in her 2016 UFC debut. Since then, she’s only been taken down 5 times on 25 attempts (80% defense) in her last 11 fights. However, she got taken down twice in her last fight on just two attempts, and it will be interesting to see if she looks better here. Aldrich only averages 3.98 SSL/min and rarely puts up big striking totals, failing to land more than 60 significant strikes in 9 of her 12 UFC matches. Aldrich trains at elevation with Miranda Maverick in Colorado, which should help her cardio later in fights.
Liang Na
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)After getting knocked out in each of her first two UFC fights, Na has opted to move back up to 125 lb, where she spent most of her career before she dropped down to 115 lb in 2020. Na made her UFC debut in April 2021 and completely gassed out going for a finish in the first round and then got finished early in round two with ground and pound from Ariane Carnelossi. She then took 14 months off before returning in June 2022, on the last Singapore card, to get knocked out on the feet in just 82 seconds by Silvana Gomez Juarez, who finished 1-3 in the UFC. It’s now been another 14 months since Na last fought and she’s struggled with both inactivity and being terrible since she joined the UFC. Na’s last 12 fights have all ended in the first two rounds, and she’s lost the last four that have made it past round one. Prior to losing her UFC debut, Na had finished five straight opponents in the first round. While this will just be her third UFC fight, she’s faced a few UFC fighters in the past. She lost in a late R1 TKO to Mariya Agapova in 2018 after previously losing her only career decision to Liliya Shakirova in 2017. Her only win to come beyond the first round was in an early R2 2016 submission of former UFC fighter Liana Jojua.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Na has seven wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and two DQ victories. Five of her six losses also came early, with three knockouts and two submissions. Three of those five early losses occurred in round two, while the other two ended in round one. Only two of her 25 pro fights have made it past the midway mark of round two, one of which ended in a late round two submission loss and the other being her lone trip to the judges, which she lost back in 2017. She’s competed anywhere from 115 lb to 135 lb, but most of her career was spent at 125 lb, where she’ll be returning for his next match.
Overall, Na is a relentless grappler with a 4-5 minute gas tank. She fights like she has a bomb strapped to her back that will detonate after the first round if she doesn’t get a finish and she’s shown zero regard for pacing herself. Her last five and six of her 10 submission wins have come by R1 armbar, while she also had four rear-naked choke victories earlier in her career. In her two UFC fights, she landed three of her six takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while no one has tried to take her down. She’s a somewhat capable striker as well and will mix in flurries of strikes with her takedowns attempts. Perhaps the cut down to 115 lb was contributing to her terrible cardio and durability, we’ll find out here as she returns to 125 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” with a 67” reach.
The matchmakers must have been drunk when they put this paradox together and wanted to see if JJ Aldrich was so boring she could make Liang Na go to a decision, or if Liang Na was so bad that even JJ Aldrich could finish her. The last time JJ Aldrich got anyone out of there early was in a 2016 R1 TKO, two fights before she joined the UFC. The last time Liang Na went to a decision was in 2017. So something has to give here. These two are polar opposites of one another, but Aldrich appears pretty well equipped to handle the early assault of Na. If history is any indicator, Na will turn into a pumpkin in round two and Aldrich won’t have to do much to force a stoppage. However, we do have one wildcard in the mix, as Na is returning to 125 lb for the first time in the UFC, and it’s possible the cut down to 115 lb was simply killing her. With that said, Na had a ton of fights at 125 lb earlier in her career and the results have all been pretty much the same, she either lands a first round finish or gets finished in round two. Na is a tangled ball of aggression and comes at you like a spider monkey, so it’s impossible she can find a finish, but it’s more likely she’ll gas herself out trying and Aldrich can fall on top of her and pitter patter away until the ref is forced to stop the fight. It’s honestly hard to even wrap your mind around Aldrich finishing anybody, but if there was ever a time it would happen, this is it. Whether Na lands a hail mary finish in round one or dies of exhaustion in round two, there’s a good chance even Aldrich can’t extend this fight past two rounds. This is so gross and we don’t have much confidence in it, but we’ll take Aldrich by R2 TKO via death gas.
Our favorite bet here is “Na R1” at +1200.
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DFS Implications:
Aldrich has never been one to score well in DFS, averaging 71 DraftKings points in her seven UFC wins, which all ended in decisions. She’s only topped 69 points twice, and she’s never scored more than 86 DraftKings points. She fell on her face in her recent decision loss, where she came in as a -360 favorite and proceeded to lose every round, so it’s hard to have much confidence in her as she comes in as a big favorite once again. When you combine her scoring struggles, terrible performance in her last match, and high price tag, it should come as no surprise that she projects to be very low owned, despite this favorable matchup. Na has one of the worst gas tanks we’ve ever seen and basically TKOs herself in fights when she’s unable to find a quick finish. When you combine that with Aldrich’s low ownership, you have to at least consider playing her in tournaments, despite how gross she’s been in the past. The odds imply Aldrich has an 81% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Na is one of the most chaotic fighters in the UFC and sets an unsustainable pace every time they lock her in the cage. Of her 19 career wins, 18 have ended in round one, with the other coming early in round two. She was so exhausted following the first round of her UFC debut that she had to be carried back to her corner and the fight was nearly stopped. She’s generally looking to take opponents down and fish for arm bars or rear-naked chokes, but she’s also a capable striker with seven of her wins coming by KO/TKO. Aldrich is basically anti-Na, as she looks to slow fights down and grind out decisions. Aldrich has a 70% takedown defense and won’t be an easy opponent to get down or finish. That’s concerning for Na, who may spontaneously combust after the first round if she can’t get Aldrich out of there in under five minutes. Na’s cheap price tag and upside when she wins is alluring, but this definitely isn’t a good spot for her to find her first UFC win and she’s been a R1 or bust option in DFS. The one variable in play is that she’s moving up from 115 lb to 125 lb, so it’s possible that could help with her terrible cardio and durability, but we’re not really counting on that. The odds imply Na has a 19% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Yusaku Kinoshita
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Kinoshita will be looking to bounce back from a R1 TKO loss in his recent UFC debut against Adam Fugitt, who was able to take Kinoshita down four times on seven attempts, with nearly three minutes of control time. Fugitt was able to hurt Kinoshita on the feet late in the round and then took him down and finished him on the mat as he rained down elbows. Prior to that loss, Kinoshita landed a knockout win on DWCS in the opening minute of round three, which is the only time Kinoshita has seen the third round in his career. That came after he landed a first round knockout with flying knee, following another knockout win that was overturned to a DQ because Kinoshita grabbed the fence (illegal), while curb stomping his opponents head (legal in Rizin). That was Kinoshita’s only loss before he joined the UFC.
Now 6-2 as a pro, Kinoshita has four wins by KO/TKO and two submissions. He has one R1 TKO loss and another by DQ. Five of his early wins occurred in the first round, while the last one came in the opening minute of round three.
Overall, the 22-year-old Kinoshita is a Japanese karate style striker who rarely looks to grapple, despite the two submission wins on his record. He has heavy hands and good head movement, although sometimes relies a little too much on his head movement opposed to moving his feet. That has the potential to get him into trouble in the UFC, the same way it did for Dusko Todorovic. Kinoshita is still very early in his career after just turning pro in late 2020, and his defensive wrestling has been one of his weaknesses, as the last three opponents who tried to take him down were all successful. He has shown the ability to return to his feet when he has been taken down, but he needs to work on shoring up his takedown defense. He’s also more of a counter striker and doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, but has good accuracy when he does land.
Billy Goff
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Just over a year removed from a R1 TKO win on DWCS, Goff will be making his UFC debut on a six fight winning streak, with five of those ending in knockouts. However, he’s faced a ton of adversity in recent fights as got dropped in the opening seconds of his DWCS match, got dominated on the mat in the first round of his previous fight, and got dropped again in the opening minute of his fight just before that. Fortunately for him, none of those opponents were good enough to capitalize on those opportunities and Goff was able to recover and come back to win all of those matches.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Goff has six wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. His six finishes have been split evenly across the first two rounds. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2019 post R1 TKO via doctor stoppage, while he also has one decision defeat, which came in a five-round match in his third pro fight. Goff has spent his entire career at 170 lb, except for one trip up to 185 lb to win the CES Middleweight belt on short notice just before he went on DCWS in 2022. Just four weeks prior to winning the vacant CES Middleweight belt, Goff won the vacant CES Welterweight belt. And just before that, Goff won the vacant Cage Titans vacant Welterweight belt, so Goff made a habit of snatching up unclaimed belts on the New England regional scene before going on DWCS.
Overall, Goff is an aggressive fighter with a wrestling background, who loves to throw elbows. While he’s typically looking to get fights to the mat, he’s just a BJJ purple belt and hasn’t demonstrated any real submission skills and he’s exclusively looking for ground and pound, often with flurries of elbows. In a recent interview, Goff said that his year long layoff resulted from him having double knee surgery. He apparently had been fighting through a torn meniscus for a while, and then tore the meniscus in his other knee and decided to get them both fixed at once. Goff has looked very hittable and can get kind of wild with his striking. While he’s shown the ability to get dropped and recover on the New England regional scene, that won’t be so easy at the UFC level as he faces tougher competition. With that said, the kid is game and shows up looking to put on a show, so you can’t question his heart. In fact, he may be a little too emotional and it will be interesting to see how he handles the bright lights of his debut on the other side of the world. Goff has landed at least one takedown in five straight fights and has shown the ability to rack up striking volume as well, and it will be interesting to see how those skills translate to the UFC level as he begins facing tougher competition.
Fight Prediction:
Kinoshita will have a 2” height advantage, while Goff will have a 1” reach advantage. Goff is two years older than the 23-year-old Kinoshita.
This is an interesting matchup as both fighters appear somewhat equipped to attack the weakness of the other. Goff’s biggest weakness has been his striking defense and he’s been dropped in the opening minute in two of his last three fights. Kinoshita is an accurate southpaw with good power and will make Goff pay if he leaves an opening. On the other side of things, Kinoshita’s defensive wrestling has been the biggest hole in his game, and Goff is always looking to take opponents down and batter them on the mat with elbows. Whoever can exploit the weakness of the other first will have a good shot at finding a finish and this should be an exciting fight. We give the advantage to Kinoshita, as Goff may not even get the chance to sniff a takedown if he doesn’t avoid the early shots coming his way. Goff has lots of red flags to be concerned about as he makes his UFC debut in front of a live crowd, on the other side of the world, following double knee surgery and a year long layoff. This will also be a step up in competition for him and the best guys he had previously fought were opponents that had gotten destroyed on DWCS and sent back to the regional scene. We’re not sold on Goff being a legitimate UFC-level talent, although Kinoshita hasn’t proven that he is either. The most likely outcome here is that Kinoshita catches Goff coming in and knocks him out in the first round, but if Goff can survive, he has a shot of landing a ground and pound TKO. Either way, we like someone to get knocked out in the first two rounds, and forced to choose, Kinoshita will be the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Kinoshita KO” at +160.
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DFS Implications:
Kinoshita has yet to require the judges in his relatively short career and is typically looking to knock opponents out early. However, things didn’t go according to plan in his recent UFC debut and he was the one that got finished late in the first round via ground and pound from Adam Fugitt. That’s the first time anyone has ever really beaten Kinoshita, although he also has a DQ loss on his record for an illegal fence grab during a legal curb stomp in a Rizin fight. He’s still just 23 years old and growing pains are inevitable, but he trains with a good team at Kill Cliff FC and we expect to see improvement from Kinoshita between every fight. However, his defensive wrestling remains a weakness and now he’s going against an opponent who will be looking to take him down and land ground and pound the same way Fugitt did. That could leave Kinoshita more reliant on landing a first round knockout, as a later round knockout could fail to score well if he gets controlled early on in the fight. With that said, Goff operates at a high pace and we’re not saying it’s impossible for Kinoshita to score well with a later finish in what could be a very uptempo fight, just that the potential to fail is there. Goff has been prone to getting dropped early in fights and Kinoshita is an accurate and powerful counter striker who will have a good shot at capitalizing on that and is very live to land a quick knockout. While his floor is uncertain, he’s got a high scoring ceiling, which is all we really care about in large-field tournaments. The odds imply Kinoshita has a 55% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Goff is an aggressive fighter with decent wrestling and a bad striking defense that should make for high scoring fights for whoever wins. He’s typically looking to take opponents down and beat them up with ground and pound and doesn't really look to submit anybody. That’s great for his DFS scoring potential and when he can successfully execute his gameplan he’ll have a massive scoring ceiling. However, he’s also been very prone to getting dropped on the regional scene, so just imagine how that will go against tougher opponents. That leaves him with a massively wide range of potential scoring outcomes, which means we’ll be looking to target both sides of his fights for the foreseeable future. This looks like a total boom or bust matchup in his debut, as faces a dangerous counter striker with poor defensive wrestling. There’s a very real chance Goff gets knocked out before he can even attempt a takedown, but if he doesn’t, he should have a good shot at getting this fight to the ground. Just keep in mind, we don’t know how he’ll handle the bright lights of making his UFC debut in front of a live crowd on the other side of the world, and he said he’s never even left the country before. He’s also coming off double knee surgery and a year long layoff, so this is a very volatile matchup and it’s entirely possible the moment will be too big for him. The odds imply Goff has a 45% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Rolando Bedoya
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Bedoya recently had an 11 fight winning streak snapped in a close high-volume split-decision loss in his recent UFC debut against a dangerous Khaos Williams. Bedoya finished ahead in significant strikes 149-130m but failed to land either of his two takedown attempts. The first two rounds were razor close on the stat sheet, with both fighters landing exactly 44 significant strikes in round one and Bedoya narrowly leading 40-39 in round two. Prior to that loss, Bedoya hadn’t competed in 14 months following a pair of late round finishes in 2021 and 2022, after he won three straight decisions before that. His last even fights have all seen the second round, with five of his last six making it to round three and four of those going the distance. Two of his last three finishes ended in second round submissions, and his only knockout since 2016 came in the third round of a 2021 fight.
Now 14-2 as a pro, Bedoya has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and seven decision wins. Two of his last three knockout wins ended in round three, and his last two submission victories ended in round two, while his other three finishes all ended in round one. The only two losses of his career both went the distance. Bedoya competed at 155 lb until 2017 when he moved up to 170 lb, where he’s stayed since. The first seven fights of his career were spent facing opponents with little to no pro experience, who came in with a combined 2-3 pro record.
Overall, Bedoya is an aggressive fighter who marches forward and has shown a willingness to stand there and trade with opponents. So it should come as no surprise that he trains at Chute Boxe, despite being from Peru. He has looked pretty hittable, which was evident in his UFC debut when he absorbed 130 significant strikes, although he ate those shots from Khaos Williams well and has never been finished in his career. Nevertheless, it’s only a matter of time before that catches up with him and we’ve seen guys like Kris Moutinho eat a million shots in their debut, only to get starched in the first round of their next fight. Outside of landing a ton of volume, Bedoya didn’t appear especially dangerous in his last fight, and he’s more so looking to wear on guys with volume. He’s still just 26 years old and should be showing improvement between every fight, although it’s only been three months since we last saw him. He’ll mix in takedowns attempts with decent accuracy and top control in just about all of his fights and also has a solid takedown defense, although he failed to land either of his attempts in his last match.
Song Kenan
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Kenan has only competed once in the last 29 months and has been knocked out in his last two matches, after landing a knockout of his own just before that. His most recent defeat came against a surging prospect in Ian Garry, who finished Kenan late in third round after Kenan dropped Garry in round one and nearly handed him his first career loss. Kenan notably ate 33 leg strikes in that fight. Two years prior to that, Kenan got knocked out in the first round by Max Griffin. The last time Kenan won a fight was in a February 2020 first round knockout of Callan Potter, who came in 1-1 in the UFC and then never fought again after the loss to Kenan. In fact, all four of Kenan’s UFC wins came against struggling opponents. Kenan made his UFC debut in 2017 and landed a first round knockout against Bobby Nash, who had been knocked out in each of his previous two UFC fights as well and was cut following his third straight knockout loss. Kenan then landed a second round knockout against a debuting Hector Aldana, who finished 0-3 in the UFC with two KO losses. After losing a decision to Alex Morono in his next match, Kenan won a decision over Derrick Krantz, who came in 0-1 in the UFC and was cut following the loss. Callan Potter, who went 1-2 in the UFC, is the only opponent that Kenan has beaten who ever won a UFC fight. Prior to joining the UFC, Kenan notably fought Brad Riddell and Israel Adesanya earlier in his career, but both guys knocked him out.
Now 19-7 as a pro, Kenan has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out four times himself, with his other three losses going the distance. The first early loss of his career actually came against Israel Adesanya in a R1 KO with the WFC organization, his second KO loss came in the second round of a 2017 fight against Brad Riddell, his third KO loss was in the first round against Max Griffin, and his fourth was in the third round against Ian Garry. So all of his early losses have come against really tough competition.
Overall, despite Kenan having eight submission wins on his record, he’s primarily and has only attempted three takedowns in seven UFC appearances, landing two of them, with all of those attempts coming in his last fight. On the other side of things, his opponents took him down six times on 12 attempts (50% defense). He’s shown bad cardio and has lost three of the five decisions he’s been to in his career. He gets hit more than he lands, as he averages 4.25 SSL/min and 5.45 SSA/min. In his last two losses to make it out of the first round, he absorbed 127 and 98 significant strikes respectively.
Fight Prediction:
Kenan will have a 1” height advantage but Bedoya will have a 3” reach advantage and is seven years younger than the 33-year-old Kenan.
This sets up as a fun striking battle for as long as it remains standing, although Bedoya will also look for takedowns and Kenan has just a 50% takedown defense. Kenan generally relies on landing knockouts to win fights, and he’s only found success against struggling opponents. While Bedoya has yet to win a UFC fight himself, he’s never been finished and is still 11-1 in his last 12 outings. However, Bedoya does get hit a ton, which should at least give Kenan a puncher’s chances to knock him out. While it’s tempting to say “Well Khaos Williams couldn’t knock him out so how is Kenan going to?” That’s a dangerous way of thinking when it comes to predicting MMA fights and the context surrounding every matchup is different. Kenan nearly knocked out Ian Garry in his last fight and does have decent power. Nevertheless, he basically has one way to win this match and we expect Bedoya to outland him in strikes, while also finishing ahead in the grappling. Kenan has also been knocked out four times himself and tends to fade down the stretch in fights, while Bedoya is young and fresh and has a history of landing late finishes. We like Bedoya’s chances of wearing on Kenan and finishing him with a TKO in the third round, but it also won’t be entirely shocking if Kenan knocks Bedoya out in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Bedoya R3” at +900.
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DFS Implications:
Bedoya lost a high-volume decision in his recent UFC debut, but showed he could take a punch, which is at least somewhat encouraging for his durability moving forwards. However, as the old saying goes, you don’t want to be known for your chin and eventually that tends to catch up with fighters. Regardless, it’s great for DFS, as he both lands and absorbs a ton of strikes and makes for uptempo matchups. And while he didn’t land either of his two takedown attempts in that fight, he does also offer grappling upside and is now in a more favorable matchup to show it as he faces the 50% takedown defense of Kenan, opposed to the 75% defense of Khaos Williams. Kenan has also been knocked out in four of his seven career losses and overall this is a high-upside matchup in DFS. After being the cheapest fighter on his last card, Bedoya has now seen his price soar to being one of the most expensive, which will keep his ownership in check despite his clear upside. He looks like a great tournament pivot off of Rinya Nakamura, who will be much more heavily owned. There’s always a chance Kenan could knock Bedoya out, so he’s not quite as safe as some of the other expensive options, but that doesn't matter for tournaments. The odds imply Bedoya has a 72% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Kenan is a KO or bust fighter who’s only been able to beat fringe UFC-level opponents, but has shown solid upside when he does win, with three of his four UFC victories ending in knockouts in the first two rounds. He averaged 111 DraftKings points in those three finishes, although only scored 60 points in his lone decision win. While Bedoya has yet to notch a UFC win and could still potentially fall into that fringe talent category, he’s never been finished and at least to this point has been pretty durable. However, he also gets hit a ton, which should give Kenan opportunities to find the knockout shot he needs to win, and Kenan notably almost finished Ian Garry in his last fight. We don’t expect Kenan to be able to keep pace with Bedoya, which limits his ability to win a decision, but if he somehow does win on the scorecards then he would have a good shot at serving as a value play at his cheap price tag. Training in China, Kenan won’t have to travel as far as most fighters on this card and also won’t have the massive time change, both of which slightly add to his appeal. The odds imply Kenan has a 28% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Michal Oleksiejczuk
12th UFC Fight (6-4, NC)Oleksiejczukis coming off his first loss since he dropped down to 185 lb in 2022, which occurred in a second round submission against Caio Borralho. Prior to that, Oleksiejczuk landed a pair of first round knockouts against Cody Brundage and Sam Alvey, after losing his last 205 lb fight in a decision against Dustin Jacoby. Five of Oleksiejczuk’s six UFC wins have come by R1 KO, with the one exception being a 2021 split-decision victory over Modestas Bukauskas, who ran away from him for most of the fight. Oleksiejczuk originally came into the UFC in 2017 with a 12-2 record and on a nine fight winning streak. However, after winning his 2017 UFC debut by decision over Khalil Rountree in 2017, Oleksiejczuk tested positive for a banned estrogen blocker and was suspended for a year and the results of the fight were overturned to a No Contest. Upon his return, he landed a pair of first round knockouts, but was then submitted in back-to-back fights by Ovince St. Preux and Jimmy Crute in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Since then, he’s won four of his last six fights, with his last three wins all coming by first round knockout.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Oleksiejczuk has 13 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. His last eight and 10 of his 13 KO wins ended in round one, with the other three coming in round two. His lone submission win occurred in the second round of a 2016 match. He’s been knocked out once, submitted four times, and has one decision loss. His lone TKO loss came in the first round of a 2014 fight, while two of his four submission defeats also ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. Eight of his last 10 UFC fights have ended in the first two rounds, with six of those ending in round one. Oleksiejczuk was always undersized and overweight at 205 lb, so it’s not at all shocking that he’s made the move down to 185 lb in 2022, where he’s since gone 2-1. His 2014 pro debut was also at 185 lb, but the rest of his career was spent at 198-212 lb.
Overall, Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker who’s constantly pressuring his opponents and looking for violent body shots out of the southpaw stance. He’s extremely dangerous with his striking, but has been prone to getting taken down and submitted. He’s only landed one takedown in his last 10 fights and really doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling. In his 11 UFC fights, he’s been taken down 16 times on 29 attempts (44.8% defense), although half of those came against Jimmy Crute, who took him down 8 times on 10 attempts.
Chidi Njokuani
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Njokuani has lost two straight fights after starting off his UFC career with a pair of first round knockout wins. He exploded onto the UFC scene in 2022 with a 16 second knockout of a previously very durable Marc-Andre Barriault, who had never been knocked out before or since. Njokuani then finished a far less durable Dusko Todorovic, before suffering a R2 TKO loss to Gregory Rodrigues in a wild fight where Njokuani split Rodrigues’s face wide open early in round one. Njokuani wilted in the second round of that fight as Rodrigues finished him with ground and pound on the mat. Most recently, Njokuani took on a wrestler in Albert Duraev and finally took part in a boring fight. Duraev was able to take Njokuani down twice in the first round and control him for most of the round, while the later rounds were largely uneventful, with Duraev only attempting one failed takedown in those rounds. Duarev finished ahead 45-40 in significant strikes and won a split decision.
Now 22-9 as a pro, Njokuani has 14 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and seven decision victories. Nine of his knockout wins occurred in round one, one came in round two, and four ended in round three. He’s been finished in seven of his nine pro losses, with four KO/TKOs and three submissions. He’s 7-2 in decisions, but lost the last two decisions he went to. Five of his seven early losses came in the first round, while the other two occurred in round two. Njokuani primarily fought at 170 lb until 2017 when moved up to 185 lb. He’s gone just 5-4 since making the switch, with six of his last eight fights ending early.
Overall, Njokuani is a really dangerous striker who’s tall and long for the division. In addition to his 22-9 pro MMA record, Njokuani went 12-1 as a kickboxer. Despite allegedly being a BJJ black belt, Njokuani's biggest weakness is his grappling and we’ve seen him struggle with being controlled both on the fence and on the mat in the past. His grappling deficiency was clear in his last six losses, with his recent decision defeat, which followed a R2 ground and pound TKO, preceded by a 2019 smothering decision loss, a 2018 R1 submission loss, and a 2017 R1 ground and pound TKO loss. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Njokuani has been taken down on 6 of 17 opponent attempts (64.7% defense), while he failed to land his only takedown attempt, which occurred on DWCS. He hasn’t even thought about attempting a takedown in any of his four UFC fights, while his last three opponents all got him down at least once.
Fight Prediction:
Njokuani will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while Oleksiejczuk is six years younger than the 34-year-old Njokuani.
Both of these two strikers are coming off losses to grapplers, which always leaves us wondering if they’ll be happy to return to a pure striking battle, or if they’ll look to attack that clear grappling weakness of the other. However, if history is any indicator, this fight should remain standing, as Oleksiejczuk only landed one takedown in his last 10 fights and Njokuani has never even attempted a takedown in the UFC, despite his claims of being a BJJ black belt. They’re both violent strikers, but Oleksiejczuk as been the more durable of the two, although has been very prone to getting submitted. That’s less of a concern here against Njokuani, who only has one career submission win (2010), but it would be smart of Njokuani to at least consider threatening a submission. Whether or not he actually does it is a different story. Both of these two throw with a ton of power and have the potential of knocking out the other, but they also both have somewhat questionable cardio and things could get sloppy if it makes it to the back half. However, we expect the body shots from Oleksiejczuk to be the difference maker in the fight and like his chances of knocking Njokuani out in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Oleksiejczuk KO” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Oleksiejczuk is an aggressive one-dimensional striker who’s landed first round knockouts in five of his six UFC wins. He averaged an insane 119 DraftKings points in those five knockouts, but scored just 59 points in his lone UFC decision victory. While Oleksiejczuk is always live to knock opponents out early, he hasn’t knocked anybody out beyond the first round since 2015 and tends to slow down later in fights. That leaves Oleksiejczuk as an early KO or bust option, but he’s exceptional at finding quick knockouts and Njokuani has been finished seven times in the past, with four of those losses ending in round one. While Oleksiejczuk has been very prone to getting submitted, he’s only been knocked out once in his career (2014), and Njokuani has never even attempted a takedown in the UFC. Nevertheless, the power of Njokuani does leave Oleksiejczuk with an uncertain floor and either guy could get knocked out quickly. However, from a pure ceiling perspective, Oleksiejczuk is always a great play when he’s not facing a grappler. The odds imply Oleksiejczuk has a 51% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Njokuani is coming off a disappointing decision loss to Albert Duraev after getting finished by Gregory Rodrigues just before that. So while he showed massive upside in his first two UFC fights, where he landed a pair of first round knockouts that were good for 130 and 108 DraftKings points, he’s since come back down to Earth and failed to top 21 points in either of his last two matches. The field has been enamored with him since he landed a 16 second knockout in his UFC debut, and in Njokuani’s last three fights his DraftKings ownership has checked in at 54%, 37%, and 39% most recently. Perhaps his second straight loss will quell that a bit, but he still projects to be pretty popular here at his reasonable price tag. That lowers his tournament appeal, but if he does find a finish he’ll likely end up in winning lineups. However, with zero takedown attempts in the UFC and only averaging 3.82 SSL/min, it’s much tougher to see him scoring well in an unlikely decision win. The odds imply Njokuani has a 49% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Garrett Armfield
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Armfield hasn’t fought in 13 months since he got submitted in the second round of his UFC debut against David Onama, but he has been booked twice since then. First he had been scheduled to face Christian Rodriguez in October 2022, but Armfield ended up pulling out due to a staph infection. Then he was scheduled to face Jose Johnson in February 2023, but Johnson pulled out the week of the fight. Despite taking his debut on short notice and up a weight class against a tough opponent, Armfield was competitive early on, before Onama took over in round two and submitted Armfield midway through the round. Two months prior to that, Armfield won the Fighting Alliance Championship Bantamweight belt in a quick 33 second first round knockout, after winning a smothering decision on the mat where he controlled his opponent for essentially the entire fight.
Now 8-3 as a pro, Armfield has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. Six of his seven finishes occurred in the first round, with the other coming early in round two. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice and has one decision loss. His last two losses both ended in second round submissions. His one decision loss came against UFC fighter Ronnie Lawrence in a 2019 decision, in what was just Armfield’s third pro fight. Other than his 145 lb UFC debut, Armfield has spent his entire career at 135 lb, where he’ll be moving back to here.
Overall, Armfield is a young well-rounded fighter who wrestled in college at Missouri State University and is still just 26 years old. He had been training at Kill Cliff FC, but recently decided to move back home to Missouri and is now at Trey Ogden’s gym, Marathon MMA, which is definitely a major step down from Kill Cliff FC. Armfield’s looked durable and no one has ever knocked him out, but has been more prone to getting submitted. He rarely requires the judges, with seven of his last eight fights ending early. Onama was able to take Armfield down twice on six attempts, while Armfield failed to land either of his two attempts in the match. Armfield predicted he would land a knockout here for what it’s worth.
Toshiomi Kazama
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a 33 second R1 KO loss to Rinya Nakamura in his UFC debut, which was the finals of the Road to UFC, Kazama has been knocked out in under six minutes in two of his last three fights. In between those two losses, he won a grappling-heavy decision in the first round of the Road to UFC tournament, and then had his opponent drop out in the semi-finals, allowing him to automatically advance to the finals against Nakamura. Prior to getting knocked out twice, Kazama won nine straight fights, after losing a decision in his July 2020 pro debut.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Kazama has three wins by TKO, five submissions, and two decision victories. All three of his TKO wins occurred in his first five pro fights and his last four finishes all ended in first round submission. Of his eight total finishes, six ended in round one, one came in the first half of round two, and the other occurred in the opening minute of round three in his first pro win. His last seven finishes all occurred in a round and a half or less, with six of those ending in round one. Kazama started his pro career at 145 lb and even had a fight at 155 lb, but has been at 135 lb since 2021.
Overall, Kazama is a one-dimensional Japanese grappler who made the business decision to transition from traditional grappling to MMA back in 2020. He started training in judo as a child and is also a BJJ brown belt, but he offers very little in terms of striking and he only landed 25 significant strikes in his last decision win. While he’s solid on the ground, his offensive wrestling leaves something to be desired, which is something he’ll need to improve on, as his only path to victory is through grappling. In his last two fights, he landed just 2 of his 13 takedown attempts (15.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on one of their three attempts (66.7% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Kazama will have a 1” height advantage, but Armfield will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both of these two come from grappling/wrestling backgrounds and are still pretty early in their careers at just 16 years old apiece. However, Armfield is the much more well rounded fighter and will have a clear advantage when it comes to striking. Both guys are also looking to bounce back from an early loss in their respective UFC debuts, but at least Armfield put up a fight in his loss, while Kazama got knocked out immediately. Armfield’s debut also notably took place up a weight class and on short notice against an opponent with UFC experience, while Kazama took on a fellow debuting fighter, albeit a tough one in Rinya Nakamura. If Armfield can keep this a striking battle, Kazama won’t have much of a chance, but if the fight hits the mat, Armfield has looked prone to getting submitted and that’s Kazama’s area of expertise. Neither one of these guys has done much to impress us yet, but this looks like a great spot for one of them to find a finish. With that said, a back and forth grappling battle that goes the distance is also a realistic outcome. Kazama’s lack of striking will make it tougher for him to win a decision unless he just absolutely dominates on the mat, and Armfield’s wrestling background makes that less likely. So it’s best to view Kazama as a submission or bust fighter, while Armfield has multiple ways to win, with a knockout or a decision being his most likely paths to victory. If we had to rank those three outcomes in terms of likelihood, an Armfield decision win is the most likely outcome, followed by an Armfield knockout, and then a Kazama submission. So Armfield’s the pick here, he’ll just need to avoid getting submitted or dominated on the ground to win.
Our favorite bet here is “Armfield KO” at +220.
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DFS Implications:
Armfield couldn’t have asked for a much tougher spot in his recent UFC debut that he took on short notice up a weight class against David Onama, and predictably lost the fight. However, now he’ll be moving back down to 135 lb and has had over a year to improve as this will be the third opponent he’s prepared for, with the two previous fights falling through. While this is a tougher matchup for Armfield to find a ton of wrestling success, he should be able to dominate on the feet and Kazama has been knocked out in two of his last three fights. That leaves Armfield with a lot of finishing upside, but his floor is a little shakier based on the uncertainty surrounding the grappling exchanges and the potential for him to get submitted. However, that doesn’t really matter in large-field tournaments where we only care about upside, but it is something to keep in mind for smaller field contests. The odds imply Armfield has a 59% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Kazama is a one-dimensional grappler who’s lack of striking and durability is concerning, but he still has finishing upside when he can get fights to the mat. Working in his favor, Armfield has been submitted in each of his last two losses, which both occurred in his last five fights. It’s also not impossible that Kazama could win a wrestling-heavy decision, which could still allow him to score well on DraftKings, but not on FanDuel unless he really racked up takedowns and submission attempts. However, Armfield has a wrestling background, so it’s not a great matchup for Kazama to control him on the mat for three rounds. More likely, Kazama will be a submission or bust play with decent upside, but who’s fragile chin leaves him with a zero point floor. The odds imply Kazama has a 41% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off his first career loss, Cortes-Acosta got his lead leg destroyed by Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a decision defeat. De Lima also took Cortes-Acosta down three times and controlled him for five minutes. Prior to that, Cortes-Acosta won a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights against low-level opponents in Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman. Those wins came just three weeks apart and Cortes-Acosta wasted no time getting back inside the Octagon after defeating Vanderaa in his October 2022 UFC debut. Chase Sherman had been scheduled to face Josh Parisian two weeks before that fight against Cortes-Acosta, but Parisian dropped out the day of the event and left Sherman in search of a new opponent. The UFC then matched him up with Cortes-Acosta, so it was a short notice fight for both guys. Prior to the pair of UFC decision wins, Cortes-Acosta had knocked out three straight opponents, including a R1 TKO win on DWCS after he won the vacant LFA Heavyweight belt just before that with a third round TKO. Cortes-Acosta is a former minor league baseball player, but was cut following a fight and embraced the result as he opted to become a professional fighter. While he turned pro in MMA in 2018 and landed a knockout in his first fight, he was more focussed on boxing around that time, and went 4-3 in boxing matches from 2018 to 2021. He then returned his focus to MMA in the Summer of 2021 and rattled off eight straight wins over the next 21 months.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Cortes-Acosta has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. Despite five of his nine fights ending early, only two of those five finishes occurred in round one, and one of those was a submission in his second pro fight. Two of his KO/TKO wins came in round two, and one occurred in round three. His only loss went the distance.
Overall, Cortes-Acosta is a one-dimensional striker whose background is in baseball, not martial arts. He then transitioned to boxing before really going all in on MMA in 2021. While he has one submission win on his record, he hasn’t shown anything in terms of grappling and has struggled at times with getting taken down. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, his opponents got him down on 4 of their 10 attempts (60% defense), while he failed to land his only takedown attempt. We also saw him get taken down three times in an LFA title fight just before going on DWCS, where he did a pretty good job of returning to his feet each time he got taken down and still had the cardio to land a third round knockout. With that said, he still looks vulnerable to being taken down and that may ultimately be his Achilles heel once he faces any legitimate competition at the UFC level with the ability to wrestle. We also saw him get his legs chewed up in each of his first three UFC fights, and right now he’s basically just a boxer with good cardio, volume, and power.
Lukasz Brzeski
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Brzeski has lost two straight decisions since joining the UFC, and he got completely dominated in the wrestling exchanges in his recent loss to Karl Williams, who took him down eight times on 13 attempts with over 10 minutes of control time, while also knocking him down once. Brzeski had absolutely no answers in that matchup, but gave a better account of himself in his UFC debut when he got robbed in a split decision in his UFC debut against Martin Buday. Brzeski finished ahead in significant strikes 118-66 and in total strikes 124-66, while no other stats were accrued in the find other than six seconds of control time. Despite finishing well ahead in striking in all three rounds, two of the three judges mysteriously scored the fight for Martin Buday in a real head scratcher. While Brzeski has only been to four decisions in 13 pro fights, he’s seen the second round in nine straight matches, with five of his last six making it to round three and four of those going the distance. Unsurprisingly, as he’s begun facing tougher competition, his fights have started lasting longer. Prior to the questionable decision loss in his UFC debut, Brzeski was involved in further controversy, after his DWCS match was stopped in the third round as the ref thought his short notice opponent tapped when he actually did not. It likely didn’t matter, as Brzeski was well ahead in the fight, and likely would have finished the choke anyways. Following the win, Brzeski was suspended for nine months after testing positive for clomiphene, a hormone medication used to treat infertility in women. Just before going on DWCS, Brzeski landed a May 2020 R2 TKO, which is his only official finish since 2018 after his DWCS results were overturned to a No Contest.
Now 8-3-1 plus a No Contest as a pro, Brzeski has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory—in addition to his third round submission win on DWCS that was later overturned to a No Contest due to Brzeski failing a drug test. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2017 R1 TKO, with his other two losses going the distance.
Overall, Brzeski is from Poland and has trained with Jan Blakovich, but is a leaner Heavyweight and doesn’t have much in terms of one punch knockout power at the weight class. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Brzeski landed two of his four takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 14 attempts (42.9% defense). However, all eight of those takedowns he gave up came against a relentless wrestler in Karl Williams. While Brzeski has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, he had previously looked to grapple more than your typical Heavyweight and likes to look for finishes on the mat. He throws decent calf kicks and a good amount of volume, but we’ve also seen him slow down later in fights.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4” with a 78” reach and 31 years old.
Brzeski weighed in at 243 lb, while Cortes-Acosta tipped the scale at 264 lb, despite them being the same height. It will be interesting to see what impact that has on the fight, but Cortes-Acosta is athletic for being such a big guy. All three of Cortes-Acosta’s UFC fights have gone the distance, as have both of Brzeski’s UFC matches, so we’ll see if that trend continues here. Brzeski has a chance to find a finish on the mat if he can take Cortes-Acosta down, while Cortes-Acosta throws with a lot more power on the feet. We could see Cortes-Acosta finding a late knockout, but would be more surprised if Brzeski found a finish. However, if this goes the distance we could see it going either way, as both guys land a good amount of volume and Brzeski will also have the grappling advantage and throws more leg kicks, which Cortes-Acosta has been inept at defending. Brzeski’s cardio has looked really questionable in both of his UFC fights, which increases the chances for Cortes-Acosta to land a late knockout and the -125 FGTD lines smells kind of trappy. We’re leaning that Cortes-Acosta knocks Brzeski out in the later rounds, but it definitely won’t be that surprising if it goes the distance, and if that happens both guys are live to get their hand raised.
Our favorite bet here is “Cortes-Acosta R2 KO” at +800.
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DFS Implications:
Cortes-Acosta is a one-dimensional striker with no real grappling skills who relies on striking and knockouts to score well. All three of his UFC fights have gone the distance (2-1) and he scored 90 and 59 DraftKings points in his two decision wins. He’s shown the ability to rack up volume, but that’s still unlikely to be enough for him to return value at his expensive price tag unless he lands a finish. His striking-heavy style of fighting makes him a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he needs a knockout to be useful on either site. The odds imply Cortes-Acosta has a 66% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Brzeski should have won a decision in his UFC debut but got screwed by two of the three judges. Despite landing 118 significant strikes, he still only would have scored 78 DraftKings points even if the decision had gone his way, as he didn’t accrue any other stats. Prior to that, he had often looked to grapple more, so the potential is at least still there. In between his win on DWCS and his UFC debut, Brzeski was suspended nine months for PEDs, which is obviously a red flag for him moving forward. While his uptempo style of fighting looks conducive for DFS production, he’s facing an opponent who has never been finished so this doesn’t look like a great spot for Brzeski to end things early, unless he can dominate the fight on the mat. That likely leaves him reliant on outlanding his way to a decision win, where he would have the chance to serve as a value play at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Brzeski has a 34% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Junior Tafa
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Tafa will be looking to bounce back from an uninspired decision loss to Mohammed Usman in his recent UFC debut. Usman was able to hold Tafa up against the fence for most of the fight, as he finished with 12 minutes of control time and landed 2 of his 12 takedown attempts. Tafa looked like he had never trained wrestling a day in his life in the fight, while he finished ahead just 22-7 in significant strikes in a complete snoozer. That was the first time Tafa has been to a third round, after he finished all four of his previous opponents in under 10 minutes.
Still just 4-1 as a pro, all four of Tafa’s wins ended in KO/TKOs, with three ending in round one and one in round two. He made his pro MMA debut at Light Heavyweight in July 2022, but moved up to Heavyweight for his next four fights, where he made his UFC debut. He talked about dropping back down to Light Heavyweight after his debut, but clearly that didn’t happen, and he would have had a lot of weight to cut, as he tipped the scale at 252 lb in his last match. While he’s not short at 6’3”, he was definitely carrying some extra weight in the mid section for his last match.
Overall, Tafa is a one-dimensional kickboxer with decent power but terrible cardio and no grappling. While he has a lot of kickboxing and Muay Thai experience, he’s still very new to MMA after turning pro just 13 months ago. However, he has been one of Mark Hunt’s sparring partners for a while and his brother Justin joined the UFC back in 2019, so he’s been around the game for some time. He looks to land early knockouts in all of his fights and doesn’t appear to have a plan B. He seemed completely disinterested in returning to his feet after getting taken down in his last match, which will be his downfall in the UFC.
Parker Porter
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Fresh off his first early win in the UFC, Porter landed a ground and pound R1 TKO against a fraudulent, debuting Braxton Smith, who then tested positive for steroids after the fight and was suspended for two years to make matters worse for him. Porter came into the fight 15 lb lighter and looked noticeably lighter on his feet, as he was able to avoid the bombs coming his way from Smith, before finishing him on the mat following an errant desperation takedown attempt from Smith. That was a critical win for Porter, as it was the final fight on his deal and earned him a new contract. Prior to that, Porter was finished in the first round in back-to-back fights, with the first of those coming by submission in an execution spot against Jailton Almeida, and the most recent in a 66 second R1 KO against Justin Tafa, the brother of Junior. Leading up to those losses, Porter won three straight decisions against a series of low-level Heavyweights in Alan Baudot, Chase Sherman, and Josh Parisian, after getting knocked out in the first round of his UFC debut by Chris Daukaus. All seven of Porter’s UFC fights have either ended in the first round (1-3) or gone the distance (3-0).
Now 13-8 as a pro, Porter has six wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. He’s coming off his first finish since 2019, which ended in round one, but you have to go all the way back to 2011 to find his second most recent first round finish. However, his six knockout wins have been evenly split between the first and third rounds. Two of his three submission wins ended in round two, with the other coming in round one. All eight of his losses ended early, with four KO/TKOs, three submissions, and one DQ. Seven of his eight early losses occurred in round one, with the one exception being a 2011 R3 submission defeat.
Overall, Porter is a Heavyweight journeyman who throws a good amount of volume and is a newly minted BJJ black belt who will also mix in grappling, but lacks serious knockout power or overly impressive submission skills. After only one of his first 15 pro fights went the distance, Porter has been to the judges in three of his last six fights, although his last three all ended in the first round. He likes going for kimura and keylock submissions, but hasn’t landed one since 2019, with his second most recent submission win occurring in 2015. We had grown accustomed to either seeing him get quickly finished or grinding out decision wins with a combination of striking volume and grappling, but maybe this new slimmer Porter poses more of a finishing threat—or maybe Braxton Smith is just a terrible Heavyweight with a two minute gas tank. We still lean towards the latter, but Porter showed more explosiveness on the mat in that last fight and it will be interesting to see if that carries forward. Porter generally sets a high pace for a big guy, averaging 6.66 SSL/min and 6.34 SSA/min. In his seven UFC fights, he’s landed 5 of his 21 takedown attempts (23.8% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down once on three attempts (66.7% defense). Porter is now 38 years old and was once knocked out by Jon Jones a lifetime ago back in 2008, but he looked fresh in his last fight and still seems to be going strong. Porter owns his own gym in Connecticut and teaches jiu jitsu classes there, so don’t sleep on his ground game.
Fight Prediction:
Tafa will have a 3” height advantage, but Porter will have a 3” reach advantage. Tafa is 12 years younger than the 38-year-old Porter.
This fight seems pretty cut and dry. Either Tafa will catch Porter early and knock him out, most likely in the first round, or Porter will get the fight to the mat and either find a finish or grind out a decision. Tafa is the much more dangerous striker, but he’s entirely helpless on the mat and Porter is a BJJ black belt who will look for takedowns, followed by ground and pound and/or submission attempts on the mat. While Porter’s takedown accuracy has been pretty poor at just 23% and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019, before he joined the UFC, this is a prime spot for him to land his first UFC submission, as Tafa is a one-dimensional kickboxer with no grappling skills. The only catch is that Porter will have to actually get the fight to the ground before he gets knocked out. That makes it hard to be entirely confident in Porter’s ability to pull off the upset here, but as long as he doesn’t get knocked out he should win this fight and we’ll say Porter finds a finish on the mat in the first two rounds, most likely by submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Porter’s ML” at +125.
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DFS Implications:
Tafa is a one-dimensional kickboxer who offers absolutely nothing when it comes to grappling and has shown questionable cardio in the past. He relies on landing knockouts to win fights and only turned pro in MMA 13 months ago, but has a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. His lack of experience was evident in his debut, and you have to imagine he’s working on improving his grappling, but it’s only been four months since his debut and he hasn’t had a ton of time to grow. We’ve never seen anyone look more disinterested than Tafa in trying to work back to their feet, and if this fight hits the mat he’ll be in serious trouble. That leaves him with a non-existent floor, but he still has a decent shot at knocking Porter out early, the same way his brother did just six months ago. That leaves him with a wide range of scoring outcomes and all eight of Porter’s pro losses ended early, including seven in the first round and four by knockout. That makes this a more volatile fight where either guy could score zero or 100+ pts. The odds imply Tafa has a 57% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Porter is coming off his first finish in the UFC, where despite failing to notch a takedown or knockedown he scored 103 DraftKings points in a R1 ground and pound TKO against a fraudulent Braxton Smith. Porter showed up 15 lb lighter for that and looked lighter on his feet and quicker overall. He said he’s continuing to walk around lighter and we should expect to see the same version of him here, as he faces another opponent who’s helpless on the mat. If Porter can get this fight to the mat, he’ll have a good shot at finding another finish, or at the very least grinding out a decision win that should score well on DraftKings. Porter averaged 95 DraftKings points in his previous three decision wins, and has shown the ability to score well even without a finish through a combination of striking and grappling. So as long as Porter can avoid getting knocked out he should win this fight and has a really good shot at ending up in tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Porter has a 43% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Erin Blanchfield
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Coming off the biggest win of her career, Blanchfield submitted Jessica Andrade in the second round of a February main event, although you have to keep in mind that Andrade stepped into that matchup on just a week’s notice and only four weeks after she won a decision over Lauren Murphy. Nevertheless, Blanchfield showed improved striking before finally getting Andrade to the mat in round two and quickly locked up a rear-naked choke. Three months prior to that win, Blanchfield submitted Molly McCann in the first round in a dominant victory at Madison Square Garden. That came just after Blanchfield submitted J.J. Aldrich in the second round, and Blanchfield has won eight straight fights dating back to her Invicta days, with the last three of those all ending in submissions. Prior to the string of finishes, she had won three straight decisions, after landing a rare knockout in the second round of a 2020 Invicta fight against a terrible Victoria Leonardo. Her first two UFC fights were against a pair of wrestlers in Sarah Alpar and Miranda Maverick, and Blanchfield was able to dominate both of them on the mat. Blanchfield also had a decision win over another grappler in Kay Hanson before either of them joined the UFC.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Blanchfield has two wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decision victories. Three of those finishes occurred in the first round, with the other three ending in round two. Her only career loss came in a 2019 split-decision against Tracy Cortez when they were still fighting with Invicta.
Overall, Blanchfield is a BJJ black belt and relies largely on her grappling. However, she’s still just 24 years old and her striking continues to improve. She’s averaging a very respectable 6.06 SSL/min and just 3.22 SSA/min. She’s also landed 12 of her 19 takedown attempts (63.2% accuracy), while her opponents have only gotten her down twice on nine attempts (77.8% defense). Blanchfield has looked dominant on the ground and the one time Blanchfield was unable to land any takedowns, against JJ Aldrich, Blanchfield was able to adjust mid fight and then locked up a standing guillotine choke. We’ve consistently seen Blanchfield win decisions over grapplers and submit strikers, so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues here.
Taila Santos
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Santos is 14 months removed from a close/questionable five-round split decision loss to Valentina Shevchenko for the Flyweight belt. Shevchenko appeared to lose the first three rounds, but got bailed out by two of the three judges, who gave her round two despite getting taken down and controlled for nearly four minutes, while also getting reversed on the mat at one point. Shevchenko finished the fight strong after a clash of heads caused Santo’s eye to nearly swell shut midway through the match. Nevertheless, Shevchenko got taken down three times, reversed twice, and controlled for nearly nine minutes in the match. One judge (Clemens Werner) apparently wasn’t even watching the fight and scored it 49-46 for Shevchenko. The other two judges had it coming down to a single round. That fight notably took place in Singapore, and Santos is one of three fighters on this card who also fought on the last Singapore card, with SeungWoo Choi and Liang Na being the other two. Prior to that loss, Santos landed her only finish since 2016, in a first round submission over the highly submittable Joanne Wood. Santos lost a split decision in her 2019 UFC debut against a suspect Mara Romero Borella, but then bounced back with three straight decision wins before submitting Wood.
Now 19-2 as a pro, Santos has 10 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. Twelve of Santos’ 13 early wins came in round one, with the other ending in round two. She’s never been finished and both of her losses ended in split-decisions. Santos spent most of her early career at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb when she went on DWCS, where she has stayed since.
Overall, Santos’ background is in Muay Thai, but she’s also a solid grappler. Between her six UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, she’s impressively landed 16 of her 18 takedown attempts (88.9% accuracy) and has landed the last nine takedowns she’s attempted, including all three of her attempts against Shevchenko, who came in with a 77% takedown defense. On the other side of things, Santos’ opponents got her down on just 5 of their 23 attempts (78.3% defense). Santos landed 91 significant strikes on DWCS in 2018, but since then she’s failed to top 57 in any of her six UFC fights. The only opponent to land more than 48 significant strikes against her was Shevchenko, who landed just 77 over 25 minutes.
Fight Prediction:
Santos will have a 2” height and reach advantage, while Blanchfield is six years younger than the 30-year-old Santos.
This will be the second time that these two have prepared for one another, as this fight had originally been booked back in February but Santos pulled out due to visa issues and Andrade stepped in on short notice to replace her. It’s a great matchup between two of the toughest fighters in the Women’s Flyweight division, and they’re both dangerous grapplers and decent strikers, but we give the grappling advantage to Blanchfield and the striking advantage to Santos. However, neither of those advantages are by a very wide margin and each of them have the potential to best the other either on the feet or mat. Santos arguably should be the Flyweight champion right now, but got screwed in a split decision against Shevchenko, while Blanchfield is just a fight or two away from getting her first title shot. Blanchfield has never faced anyone quite as well-rounded as Santos, with the closest thing being Andrade, who fought Blanchfield on very short notice. Santos is much larger than Andrade and tougher to take down, and will pose a different test for Blanchfield. Santos has a really solid 78% takedown defense and it will be interesting to see how that holds up against the wrestling of Blanchfield.
If Santos can keep the fight standing or land her own takedowns, she’ll have a really good shot at pulling off the upset, although Blanchfield does have a sneaky head kick and overall has improved her striking in recent years. However, we’ve yet to see her win a pure striking battle in the UFC. Santos has settled into being a decision grinder, with six of her last seven fights going the distance, and if she wins, it likely comes in a close decision. And while Blanchfield has submitted three straight opponents, all of those finishes came against strikers, and she has a history of winning decisions against fellow grapplers who are more savvy on the mat. Despite the fact that Blanchfield talked about wanting to get another finish here to solidify her case for the next title shot, this likely goes the distance and neither fighter has ever been finished before. However, if anyone does land a finish, we would expect it to be the BJJ black belt in Blanchfield. The outcome will likely hinge on Blanchfield’s ability to land takedowns, which isn’t a sure thing by any means, but we’re taking Blanchfield by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Blanchfield’s ML” at -148.
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DFS Implications:
Blanchfield is coming off an early second round submission win over Andrade that scored “just” 98 DraftKings points, after blowing up for 124 points in a first round submission win over McCann just before that. She also only scored 95 DraftKings points in another second round submission win over J.J. Aldrich, in a worst case scenario standing guillotine choke with no takedowns or knockdowns landed. Prior to that, she won a pair of wrestling-heavy decisions that were good for 115 and 126 DraftKings points and 95 and 110 points on FanDuel respectively. So she’s shown the ability to put up big scores even in decisions, where her grappling-heavy style will score better on DraftKings than FanDuel. Nevertheless, she’s shown both a safe floor and a slate-breaking ceiling on both sites and remains undefeated in the UFC as she tries to stake her claim for the next title shot in this match. This will be a tough test for Blanchfield, as Santos has good size for the division, is very well rounded, and has a solid 78% takedown defense. Perhaps Blanchfield can continue to roll, but there’s definitely a world where Santos keeps it standing and makes life really difficult for Blanchfield. That leaves a wider range of potential scoring outcomes, but Blanchfield still has a solid ceiling through a combination of striking volume and wrestling. The odds imply Blanchfield has a 57% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Santos has also shown the ability to score well, and would have put up 107 DraftKings points if the last split decision had gone her way against Shevchenko. And while that was notably a five-round fight where she had more time to work with, Santos scored 126 DraftKings points in a first round submission just before that, after totaling 114 points in a three-round decision win looking back one fight further. However, this is obviously a tough matchup against Blanchfield, who should be looking to take Santos down, which could make it harder for her to score well. However, both of these two are highly skilled and it’s hard to know exactly how it plays out. Perhaps Santos will surprise Blanchfield with her physicality and become the first opponent to control Blanchfield on the mat. Or maybe Santos can just keep the fight standing and win a striking battle. However, it would be surprising to see Santos land a finish or completely dominate Blanchfield on the ground, which likely leaves her as more of a cheap value play if she wins. The odds imply Santos has a 43% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Rinya Nakamura
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Nakamura is coming off a 33 second R1 KO win over Toshiomi Kazama in the Road to UFC finals, and finished all three of his opponents in that tournament in the first round, with two knockouts and one submission. Nakamura only turned pro in May 2021, but has yet to taste defeat and has only been in one fight that lasted longer than five and a half minutes, which was a 2022 decision victory where he suffered a bad cut over his eye in the first round and then resorted to wrestling to secure the win with the judges.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Nakamura has five wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. Five of those finishes came in the first round, with the other ending 20 seconds into round two. So he hasn’t had his cardio tested much.
Overall, Nakamura is a Japanese national wrestling champion who won gold at the under 23 world wrestling championships in 2017. He had been preparing for the 2020 Olympics, but after they were postponed he transitioned to MMA. In addition to his solid wrestling, Nakamura has shown decent striking, solid power, and good quickness on the feet. With that said, he has pretty limited striking experience and at 28 years old he still has plenty of room to grow. He’s very athletic, but it will be interesting to see how he handles more experienced opponents as he works his way up in the UFC. While he comes out aggressively looking for finishes, when he’s unable to get opponents out of there early his striking pace slows down considerably.
Fernie Garcia
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Garcia lost a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights, after punching his ticket to the big show with a 2021 R1 KO win on DWCS over a terrible Joshua Weems. He followed that up with a decision loss to Journey Newson, who took Garcia down twice on three attempts and outlanded him 57-37 in significant strikes. Most recently, Garcia lost a decision to Brady Hiestand, who took Garcia down three times on eight attempts with over nine minutes of control time, while Garcia led in significant strikes just 21-19. Garcia has gone the distance in seven of his last eight fights, with the one exception being his finish on DWCS.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Garcia has one win by TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses going the distance. Interestingly, four of Garcia’s nine decisions were split, with him winning three of those. Twelve of his 13 fights have ended in either the first round (3-0) or gone the distance (6-3). He started his pro career at 145 lb in 2015, but dropped down to 135 lb in his fourth fight, where he’s stayed since other than one 140 lb Catchweight match in 2019. Garcia hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and only four of his 10 wins have come against opponents with winning records, and one of those four was against a 45 year old opponent who took the fight on short notice.
Overall, Garcia is a boxer who generally tends to wear on his opponents more than finishing them quickly. He’s pretty heavy on his lead leg and has looked vulnerable to eating low kicks from his opponents. While he’s just a BJJ purple belt, he will mix in takedowns and has multiple submission wins. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Garcia landed one of his two takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 13 attempts (61.5% defense). Prior to joining the UFC, he showed the ability to throw high-volume combinations and put up decent striking totals, but we’ve yet to see that from him at the UFC level and he’s only averaging 2.18 SSL/min and 2.83 SSA/min. Garcia fights out of Fortis MMA and will have his teammate Ryan Spann on the card with him.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7”, but Nakamura will have a 1” reach advantage.
Garcia has done nothing to impress so far in the UFC and has looked vulnerable to being taken down. It looks like the UFC has more or less given up on him as they’re now using him to build up a more promising Japanese prospect in Nakamura. Garcia’s defensive wrestling is a complete liability and Nakamura should be able to get this fight to the ground whenever he wants. However, Nakamura is sometimes content with keeping fights standing as he looks for early knockouts on the feet. And with just 27 months of pro experience, you can’t necessarily rely on Nakamura to take the path of least resistance as he’s still very green when it comes to MMA. He didn’t even attempt a takedown in either of his last two fights, as he knocked out both of the opponents in the first round. Garcia has never been finished in his career, although also has faced anyone as dangerous as Nakamura. However, the odds seem off as Nakamura’s ITD line is -300, while his decision line is +400. That implies he’s 12 times more likely to get a finish than win a decision, and we definitely don’t agree with that. Nakamura has never landed a finish beyond the the 5:20 mark, nor has he ever faced an opponent with any UFC experience. While Nakamura starts fast, we haven’t seen him keep that pace up in longer fights and if Garcia can simply survive the first round then there’s a good chance this goes the distance and Nakamura leans on his wrestling late to grind out a decision win. Regardless of how he gets it done, we fully expect Nakamura to win this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Nakamura DEC” at +440.
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DFS Implications:
Nakamura is coming off a 33 second R1 KO win in his UFC debut that was good for 139 DraftKings points with the help of the Quick Win Bonus and two knockdowns. That fight took place in the smaller cage and with no fans at the Apex in Las Vegas against a fellow debuting opponent, whereas now he’ll be fighting in front of a crowd, in the larger Octagon, and against an opponent with two UFC fights/losses under his belt. It will be interesting to see how Nakamura handles those changes, but his wrestling pedigree and proven knockout power make him a tough fighter to deal with anywhere fights go. His well-rounded skill set also gives him multiple ways to score well in DFS, especially on DraftKings where his wrestling is more valuable, and his previous two wins on Road to UFC would have been good for 120 and 114 DraftKings points respectively. Now he’s facing a one-dimensional striker and the takedowns should be there if Nakamura chooses to go that route. Garcia has never been finished in his career, although also hasn’t fought any truly dangerous opponents. Nevertheless, that could make it a little tougher for Nakamura to get him out of there early, and at Nakamura’s high salary there are lots of ways he gets priced out of winning tournament lineups even with a finish or wrestling-heavy decision. To guarantee himself a spot in tournament winning lineups he may need to outscore Max Holloway, although it’s not entirely impossible they both end up in tournament winning lineups, although it is unlikely. After landing three straight first round finishes, scoring 139 DraftKings points in his recent debut, and getting a favorable matchup here, we fully expect Nakamura to be higher owned than his chances of cracking the optimal lineup. That lowers his tournament appeal, but he has a really safe floor that makes him a great low-risk play. It also makes sense to play him in tournament lineups that don’t include Holloway, as it’s tougher to see neither of those two ending up in the winner. The odds imply Nakamura has an 85% chance to win, a 67% chance to land a finish, and a 40% chance it comes in round one.
Garcia has lost decisions in both of his UFC and has yet to show any ability to win or score well at the UFC level. Now he’ll face the toughest test of his career on the other side of the world and things won’t be getting any easier for him. His defensive wrestling has been a weakness, and Nakamura has aspirations of wrestling in the Olympics in 2020, so stylistically this looks like a terrible matchup for Garcia to succeed, as he comes in as a massive underdog. The only advantages we see for him are experience and a familiarity with going three-rounds, while Nakamura is accustomed to finishing fights quickly. So if Garcia can survive the first round, there’s always a chance Nakamura could begin to slow down and Garcia could find some success late in the fight. However, that will require everything to go right for Garcia and we’re not holding our breath. Nakamura does have one decision win on his record, although that’s the only time he’s been in a fight that lasted longer than five and a half minutes. Garcia will more likely need to land a hail mary finish to pull off the upset, and he only has one knockout win on his record, along with a few submission victories. While we have no confidence in him here, if he somehow pulls off the upset he’ll be a massive tournament leverage play and crazy things happen all the time in the UFC. The odds imply Garcia has a 15% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Giga Chikadze
9th UFC Fight (7-1)It’s been 19 months since Chikadze has competed, after he got beat up by Calvin Kattar for five rounds back in January 2022. Chikadze had been scheduled to face Sodiq Yusuff in September 2022, but ended up withdrawing from the fight. Prior to his loss to Kattar, Chikadze won nine straight fights following a 2018 submission loss to Austin Springer on DWCS. The last three of those wins all ended in knockouts, after Chikadze’s first four UFC victories all went the distance, including two split decisions. The most recent of those knockouts impressively came against Edson Barboza in the third round of an August 2021 main event. Prior to his win over a 35-year-old Barboza, Chikadze finished a 37-year-old Cub Swanson with a liver kick in the first round. Before that fight, Chikadze landed his first UFC finish against short notice UFC newcomer Jamey Simmons, who is not a UFC level talent.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Chikadze has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. Eight of his nine knockout wins occurred in the first round, while his most recent came in round three. It’s worth pointing out that six of those nine KO wins occurred earlier in his career as part of the “Gladiator Challenge” against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 1-10, 0-13, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1. His lone submission win was also under that same promotion against an opponent who entered with a mind-bottling 2-31 record. Amazingly, the first time Chikadze ever defeated an MMA opponent with a winning pro record was in his UFC debut when he won a split-decision over Brandon Davis. He’s never been knocked out, with his one early loss ending in a 2018 R3 submission. His other two defeats both went the distance.
Overall, Chikadze is a one-dimensional striker who throws violent kicks and is dangerous on the feet. However, he offers next to nothing in terms of grappling and was submitted by a terrible Austin Springer on DWCS in 2018. Between that DWCS bout and his eight UFC fights, Chikadze has been taken down by his opponents 11 times on 36 attempts (69.4% defense), while he landed two of his own six attempts (33.3% accuracy). However he hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last six fights and didn’t attempt any in his last three matches. Most of his opponents have failed to really capitalize on his grappling weakness, but it’s there for the taking. The only time Chikadze has landed more than 65 significant strikes in a UFC fight was in his recent five-round decision and he only averages 4.05 SSL/min and 3.35 SSA/min.
Alex Caceres
29th UFC Fight (16-11, NC)Fresh off a June decision win over Daniel Pineda, Caceres has quietly won seven of his last eight fights, with the lone loss coming in a decision against a tough Sodiq Yusuff. Just before his win over Pineda, Caceres landed a rare R1 TKO win over a fragile Julian Erosa, which is only Caceres’ second KO/TKO victory since 2010. His only other TKO “finish” in the last 13 years was a 2017 post R2 TKO due to an opponent suffering an eye injury. Prior to that finish, Caceres lost a decision to Yusuff, after winning five straight fights. That winning streak began with a decision win over Steven Peterson, followed by another decision victory over a very green Chase Hooper, who was making his second UFC appearance and was just 20 years old at the time. Caceres then landed a first round submission against a short notice replacement in Austin Springer, who was making his UFC debut and never fought again. Caceres then won another decision, this time against Kevin Croom, who went 0-3 plus a No Contest in the UFC before being released. Caceres’ most impressive win over the five fight stretch was against Seung Woo Choi. After nearly getting knocked out and then taking an illegal knee to the head in the first round, Caceres opted to continue and fought his way back into the fight and then three minutes into round two Caceres was able to take Choi’s back on the feet and lock up a rear-naked choke. Caceres’ second most recent loss was all the way back in 2019 when he got submitted in the first round by Kron Gracie.
Now 21-13 as a pro, Caceres has four wins by TKO, seven submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s only been knocked out once in his career (R1 2015), but has been submitted seven times, and has five decision losses. Four of those seven submission losses notably occurred in 2011 or prior, and he’s only been finished twice in his last 16 fights dating back to 2015—both times by rear-naked choke (2017 & 2019). If we include the split-decision win over Kyung Ho Kang that was later overturned to a No Contest when Caceres tested positive for THC, seven of his 16 career decisions have been split (4-3). Ten of Caceres’ last 11 fights have ended in either decisions (5-2) or submissions (2-1). Caceres made his UFC debut in 2011 at 145 lb, but after starting 0-2 with the organization he dropped down to 135 lb later that year. He stayed at 135 lb until 2015, going 5-4 plus a No Contest (originally a decision win) in his next 10 fights, before moving back up to 145 lb in 2016 following three straight losses at 135 lb. He’s since stayed at 145 lb and is now 11-7 at 145 lb in the UFC.
Overall, Caceres is a longtime UFC veteran who joined the organization all the way back in 2011 and will be stepping into his 29th UFC fight. He has a fluid karate style that utilizes a lot of kicks, but leaves his lead leg vulnerable to getting beat up. He’s worked on his wrestling in recent years, to shore up what had been his biggest weakness, and despite having seven submission losses on his record, it’s been over four years since anyone submitted him. In his last UFC 11 fights, he’s landed four takedowns on eight attempts (50% accuracy), while only giving up 11 takedowns on 49 opponent attempts (77.6% defense). His karate style approach to fighting generally results in somewhat lower volume striking battles as he only averages 4.16 SSL/min and 2.87 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Chikadze will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Both of these two are primarily strikers, but Caceres also has some grappling skills and poses a submission threat. That could be the difference maker in this fighter if Caceres is smart enough to attack the poor defensive grappling of Chikadze. Just keep in mind, Caceres hasn’t landed more than a single takedown in a fight since 2016 and is still primarily a striker. We expect to see a tactical, lower-volume karate-style kickboxing match in most of this fight, but if Caceres sees an opening to take Chikadze’s back he’ll take it. While we’re expecting this to go the distance and likely end in a close decision, if it does end early we because Caceres submits Chikadze, likely after backpacking him and locking in a rear-naked choke. We’re taking the underdog in Caceres to win either by submission or in a close decision, with the latter being the more likely.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -154.
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DFS Implications:
Chikadze is a pure kickboxer who specializes in throwing violent kicks and doesn’t offer almost anything in terms of grappling. His one dimensional fighting style generally makes it hard for him to score well in DFS barring an early KO. In his four UFC decision wins, he scored 68, 70, 51 and 68 DraftKings points. While his last three wins all ended in knockouts, he still only scored 92, 105, and 103 DraftKings points in those finishes, and even if he does land another knockout, at his high salary he could get priced out of winning lineups. Also working against him, Caceres has only been knocked out once in 34 pro fights and has been extremely durable. Chikadze is also coming off a 19 month layoff and could have some ring rust to knock off. That doesn’t get us very excited about playing Chikadze in DFS and he looks like a R1 KO or bust option in a bad matchup. The odds imply Chikadze has a 68% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Caceres has historically struggled to put up big DFS scores, averaging 85 DraftKings points in his 16 UFC wins. He’s only topped 98 points three times in 28 UFC appearances—a 2022 R1 TKO win where he scored 107 points, a 2017 R2 TKO win where he scored 105 points, and a 2016 decision victory where he scored 116 as he completely filled up the stat sheet. With that said, he’s shown a somewhat decent floor recently, with DraftKings scores of 77, 107, 91, 76, 98, and 92 in his last six wins. At his cheap price tag, he may not need to put up a huge score to be useful, although this sets up as a lower volume striking battle and he’ll likely need to incorporate some wrestling to score well in a decision. The odds imply Caceres has a 32% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Ryan Spann
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Coming off a submission loss to Nikita Krylov, Spann hasn’t even made it to the four minute mark in any of his last six fights (3-3), as he continues to be involved in one first round finish after the next. The last time he saw round two was in early 2020 when he won a split decision over Sam Alvey, who Spann nearly submitted in the first round. Following that win, Spann got knocked out by Johnny Walker in 163 seconds, landed a 71 second TKO against a fragile Misha Cirkunov, got submitted by Anthony Smith in 227 seconds, submitted Ion Cutelaba in 142 seconds, knocked out Dominick Reyes in 80 seconds, and then most recently got submitted by Krylov in 238 seconds. Spann also went on DWCS twice and neither of those fights lasted longer than 26 seconds (1-1). Spann has struggled to string wins together lately, but has also done a good job of bouncing back from losses. It’s also worth pointing out that his wins have all come against struggling opponents.
Here’s a list of who Spann beat in his seven UFC wins, along with some context surrounding them:
Dominick Reyes - No Chin. Lost three straight coming into his defeat to Spann.
Ion Cutelaba - Idiot. Went 1-5-1 from 2020 to 2022. Fought Spann in 2022.
Misha Cirkunov - Fragile. 2-7 in his final nine UFC fights, including four straight losses beginning with the loss to Spann.
Sam Alvey - Old/Terrible. In the midst of a historically bad 0-8-1 run.
Devin Clark - Highly submittable. 2-2 in his previous four and now 8-8 in the UFC.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - 43-year-old relic. One year/fight away from retirement, lost three of his last four.
Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira - Former HW making desperation move down to LHW for the first time. Came in on a two fight skid and got cut following his third straight loss.
Now 21-8 as a pro, Spann has six wins by KO/TKO, 12 submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has two decision defeats. All nine of his knockout wins and losses ended in the first round, as did 10 of his 12 submission wins and two of his three submission losses. He’s had two fights end in second round submissions (1-1), while the only time we’ve seen a finish in one of his fights beyond the eight minute mark was in a 2015 R3 submission win in his seventh pro fight. Nine of his 12 submission wins have come by guillotine, while he also has three by rear-naked choke. Overall, 21 of his 29 pro fights have ended in the opening five minutes (72.4%). Fourteen of his last 16 fights have ended early, with 13 of those ending in R1. While 7 of his 10 UFC fights ended in round one, two of his three to see the second round ultimately went the distance. Spann fought mostly at 185 lb early in his career, but has been at 205 lb since he went on DWCS in 2017.
Overall, Spann is constantly looking to end fights early either through striking or submissions (typically by guillotine). He’s also been prone to getting finished quickly himself, with his last four losses all ending in under four minutes. In fights that have lasted longer than a round, we’ve seen him slow down late and he barely hung on to win a split decision against Sam Alvey in 2020. While he’s an aggressive fighter, he still somehow only averages 3.28 SSL/min and 1.6 TDL/15 min. Between his 10 UFC fights and his two DWCS matches, he’s landed just 6 of his 16 takedown attempts (37.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 20 attempts (45% defense). He’s only landed one total takedown in his last five fights. Spann missed weight for his second most recent fight by less than a pound, and is a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. However, we often see him look bad on the scale and still perform okay, so you have to be careful reading too much into things.
Anthony Smith
20th UFC Fight (11-8)Just three months removed from a decision loss to Johnny Walker, the 35-year-old Smith has dropped two straight since he submitted Ryan Spann in the first round 23 months ago in September 2021. Walker outlanded Smith 92-38 in significant strikes, landing a ridiculous 51 leg kicks on Smith. Both fighters landed one takedown, but the fight remained standing for the most part. It looked like Walker had Smith hurt a few times, but never really pushed for the finish and then afterwards said he wanted to show he could go three hard rounds. Ten months prior to that, Smith lost in a second round TKO loss to Magomed Ankalaev, where Smith broke his leg in the first round and basically had no chance to win after that. After having surgery on the leg following the fight, Smith then had to deal with a blood clot that took months to get past. Smith also had knee surgery between his win over Spann and loss to Ankalaev, and he’s been dealing with numerous injuries and medical issues over the last couple of years, in addition to the loss of his Mother. Prior to his pair of recent losses, Smith had finished three straight opponents in the first round, with two of those ending in submissions and the other a post R1 TKO via doctor stoppage when Smith shut down Jimmy Crute’s leg with a kick to the peroneal nerve.
Now 36-18 as a pro, Smith has 19 wins by KO/TKO, 14 submissions, two decisions, and one “N/A”. He’s been knocked out 10 times, submitted four more, and has four decision losses. His last 10 wins have all come early, and he’s lost the last four decisions he’s been to. Smith fought at 185 lb until 2018 when he got knocked out by Thiago Santos in round two and then moved up to 205 lb, where he’s since gone 7-5. All seven of those wins came early, with five in round one, one in round three, and another in round four. Four of those wins ended in submissions, and three came by knockout, but four of his last five finishes were by submission, with the one exception being a flukey doctor stoppage. The only two times he’s been finished at 205 lb were a 2020 R5 TKO loss to Glover Teixeira and a 2022 R2 TKO loss to Magomed Ankalaev where Smith broke his leg. The other three losses ended in decisions against Jon Jones, Aleksandar Rakic, and Johnny Walker.
Overall, Smith is a BJJ black belt and has proven he’s dangerous on the ground from just about any position. While he has more knockouts than submissions on his record, four of his last five finishes have come by submission. Despite all of his submission finishes, in his 12 UFC Light Heavyweight fights Smith has only landed four takedowns on 15 attempts (26.7% accuracy), and failed to take any of those 12 opponents down more than once. Over that same stretch, his opponents took him down 10 times on 20 attempts (50% defense). So he actually has as many submission wins (4) as takedowns at Light Heavyweight and two of those submission wins came in fights where he didn’t even need to land a takedown. He also landed four knockdowns in those 12 fights and three knockouts, although he only has one KO/TKO victory in his last 10 fights. Smith is a well-rounded fighter, and has also been durable enough not to get finished very often, but he is getting up there in age and didn’t look great in either of his last two fights, albeit against stiff competition. he only averages 2.96 SSL/min and has never landed more than 86 significant strikes in a fight, so while he’s a dangerous striker and grappler, he lacks both striking and takedown volume, which helps to explain why he hasn’t won a decision since 2016. He’s also very prone to getting his lead leg chewed up, although that should be less of a concern in this matchup as Spann never throws leg kicks.
Fight Prediction:
Spann will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being four years younger than the 35-year-old Smith.
You never know which version of Anthony Smith is going to show up for a fight. He went through a stretch in 2019 and 2020 where he was getting absolutely mauled on the mat by a series of tough and physically imposing opponents, but then faced a step down in competition and landed three straight first round finishes, including a submission over Ryan Spann in September 2021 when these two initially fought. However, Smith then battled a series of injuries just as he began facing tougher competition once again, and looked bad in each of his last two losses. He’ll take another step back in competition level here, and already has finished Spann once, but it would be foolish to assume Smith is the same fighter today that he was two years ago and we’d recommend approaching this fight cautiously. Despite Smith dominating their first fight, the books are still dangling a plus money Smith ML here, in what looks like a clear trap line. Since they last fought, Smith had knee surgery, broke his leg, dealt with blood clots, and lost his mom, who he described as one of his biggest supporters. Now 35 years old, Smith has looked about done in his last two matches, after having a bit of a resurgence in 2020 and 2021. We’ve seen Smith get his lead leg destroyed at multiple points in the past, and he ate 51 leg strikes in his last fight alone. However, working in Smith’s favor, Spann has thrown a total of one leg strike in his entire 10-fight UFC career, and none in his last eight fights, so he’s unlikely to capitalize on that area of weakness.
While Smith was able to hurt Spann at multiple points in their last fight, he hasn’t actually knocked anybody out since 2018, unless you want to count the peroneal nerve injury that Jimmy Crute suffered which forced a doctor stoppage. Smith has also lost the last four decisions he’s been to, and has mostly relied on submitting opponents to win fights recently, with four of his last five wins coming by submission. So if Smith does win, his most likely path to victory would be to land another submission. However, Spann is the younger, fresher, healthier fighter, and should give a better account of himself this time. Rematches rarely go the exact same way as the first fight and often underwhelm in comparison. Spann should come in with more respect for the danger Smith presents, while Smith’s confidence can’t be especially high after losing his last two fights. That would typically lead us to believe that this fight has a good chance of running longer than expected. However, Ryan Spann hasn't seen the second round in any of his last six outings and fights like he’s doubled parked. That leaves this as a more volatile matchup that could go a lot of ways. Both guys are capable of finishing the other either by submission or knockout, while a longer fight would also make some sense in this rematch. Smith in his prime wins this fight easily, but he’s clearly past his prime and at this point it’s hard to know how much he has left in the tank. He’s looked bad in each of his last two fights and unless he suddenly comes out as a rejuvenated version of his past self, then he likely loses another one here and takes another step closer to retirement. We don’t have much confidence in either one of these two, but Spann will be the pick and we’ll say he either wins in the first round or by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Spann KO” at +195.
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DFS Implications:
Spann has been entirely reliant on landing first round finishes to score well in DFS and he totaled just 66 and 63 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins. He also only scored 79 points in a 2019 second round submission victory and his low striking volume (3.28 SSL/min) and questionable cardio make it tougher for him to succeed when he’s unable to get opponents out of there in round one. However, he’s super dangerous early on and 16 of his 21 career wins have come in the first round. He has solid power and a nasty guillotine that he’s finished nine opponents with. His last six fights all ended in the first round (3-3), which presents huge amounts of upside for both him and his opponents. However, that streak is bound to end eventually, and what better time than in a rematch where there’s reason to think Spann could be a bit more cautious after getting finished in the first fight? This fight projects to be heavily owned on both sides, and could easily bust if it just makes it out of the first round. If it does, it will take a huge chunk of the field down with it, which could be especially useful on a slate where we have a super high owned main event favorite that projects to score a million points. Obviously it’s a risky proposition to be underweight on any fight that Spann’s part of, but they call tournaments high-risk for a reason. The odds imply Spann has a 53% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Smith has lost two straight fights and looked bad in both of those matches, but his last 10 wins all come early and he hasn’t won a decision since 2016. He averaged “just” 95 DraftKings points in those 10 finishes and his lack of striking and takedown volume has left him reliant on landing finishes in the first two rounds to score well. Four of his last 10 finishes came in rounds three and four, and he only scored 63, 79, 70, and 83 DraftKings points in those late round finishes. The last time these two fought, Smith landed a first round submission that was good for 120 DraftKings points. The field has the imagination of a dictionary and will be expecting the same result here, which will drive Smith’s ownership way up despite his more recent two lackluster performances. Since his win over Spann, Smith had knee surgery, broke his leg, dealt with blood clotting, and lost his mom, who he talked about being one of his biggest supporters. He’s also now 35 years old and clearly past his prime, so it’s a mistake thinking this fight will inevitably look like the first one. Could it? Sure, but that’s far from a lock. We often see rematches fail to live up to the original and this matchup is more volatile than most of the field will be accounting for. The odds imply Smith has a 47% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Max Holloway
28th UFC Fight (20-7)Coming off a five-round decision win over a habitually underrated Arnold Allen, Holloway has amazingly fought to eight straight five-round decisions. The last time one of his fights ended early was in a 2018 post R4 TKO win over Brian Ortega due to a doctor stoppage. At the time, that was Holloway’s fourth straight late-round TKO win, with his previous three all ending in round three. While Holloway is just 3-3 in his last six fights, all three of those losses came in title fight decisions against Alexander Volkanovski. Holloway has won 17 of his last 18 fights against opponents not named Volkanovski, with the one loss coming up a weight class against Dustin Poirier in 2019. After losing a pair of decisions to Volkanovski in 2019 and 2020, Holloway bounced back against Calvin Kattar and set the all time UFC record for the most significant strikes ever landed in a fight (445), soaring past his own previous record of 290 that he landed on Brian Ortega. Holloway landed more significant strikes in the fourth round alone (141) than Kattar landed in the entire match (133). Holloway followed that up with another high-volume five-round decision win, landing 230 significant strikes against Yair Rodriguez. And after landing just five total takedowns in his first 24 UFC fights combined, Holloway landed three against Rodriguez on five attempts, although then failed to land any of his three attempts in his subsequent decision loss to Volkanovski, and didn’t attempt a takedown in his most recent win. While the first two fights against Volkanovski were close, Holloway got dominated in the last one, as Volkanovski outlanded him in every round and finished ahead 199-127 in significant strikes and won a unanimous 50-45 decision. Holloway got cut badly above his eye in the second round, but was able to battle through it to at least avoid suffering the first KO/TKO loss of his career. He then outlanded Arnold Allen 147-76 in significant strikes most recently, with neither fighter attempting a takedown in the match.
Now 24-7 as a pro, Holloway has 10 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and 12 decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a first round submission in his 2012 UFC debut against Dustin Poirier in what was just Holloway’s 5th pro fight and the first of two times that those guys squared off. Holloway’s other six losses all went the distance, with the last four of those decision losses going five rounds. Three of Holloway’s career losses came against Volkanovski, two more were against Dustin Poirier, one was at the hands of Conor McGregor, and the other was against Dennis Bermudez in a 2013 split decision. His last 14 fights have all seen the third round.
This will be the 15th five-round fight of Holloway’s career and 14th in the UFC (9-4). His last eight five-round fights all went the distance (4-4), after the first five of his UFC career all ended in TKO wins. He also had a 2011 five-round split-decision win before he joined the UFC. Overall, Holloway has gone 5-4 in UFC five-round title fights and also has four more non-title fight five-round victories (three decision wins and one R1 TKO by injury against Charles Oliveira). He’s never lost a five-round fight when the belt was not on the line.
Here are all of Holloway’s five-round fights:
2023 R5 DEC W vs. Arnold Allen
2022 R5 DEC L vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Title Fight)
2021 R5 DEC W vs. Yair Rodriguez
2021 R5 DEC W vs. Calvin Kattar
2020 R5 DEC L vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Title Fight)
2019 R5 DEC L vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Title Fight)
2019 R5 DEC W vs. Frankie Edgar (Title Fight)
2019 R5 DEC L vs. Dustin Poirier (155 lb Title Fight)
2018 R4 TKO W vs. Brian Ortega (Title Fight)
2017 R3 TKO W vs. Jose Aldo (Title Fight Rematch)
2017 R3 TKO W vs. Jose Aldo (Title Fight)
2016 R3 TKO W vs. Anthony Pettis (Title Fight)
2015 R1 TKO W vs. Charles Oliveira
…
2011 R5 S-DEC W vs. Harris Sarmiento (Pre-UFC)
Overall, Holloway is a high-volume brawler who tends to wear on his opponents and win the war of attrition, opposed to knocking them out early. His last four KO/TKO wins all came in the third round or later and he only has two R1 wins in his entire 27-fight UFC career—one of those was from a doctor stoppage and the other came against an opponent who was knocked out in the first two rounds in his last three UFC fights before hanging it up. Holloway holds the record for the most significant strikes landed in UFC history (3122), nearly lapping everyone else, as Angela Hill has landed the second most at 1820. Obviously those records are largely based on how many fights you have, and Holloway has 27 UFC fights under his belt, but he averages an impressive 7.16 SSL/min and 4.79 SSA/min. While Holloway has only landed eight takedowns in 27 UFC fights, three of those came in his third most recent fight, showing that he is at least currently capable of looking for takedowns when he wants to and he has a 53% takedown accuracy, while also holding an elite 84% takedown defense and he’s only been taken down eight times in his last 18 fights. With everything going on in Hawaii right now, you have to imagine that Holloway will come in motivated to put on an impressive performance and get his time on the mic afterwards.
Chan Sung Jung
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Sixteen months removed from a R4 TKO loss to Alexander Volkanovski, Jung is now 36 years old and it sort of appeared that he might be ready to call it a career immediately after his last loss. Volkanovski outlanded Jung 138-48 in significant strikes, while tacking on four takedowns and a knockdown in the one-sided fight. Jung never attempted any takedowns of his own and had no answers for Volkanovski on the feet. Prior to that loss, Jung won a grappling-heavy five-round decision over Dan Ige, where Jung landed three takedowns on five attempts with over 10 minutes of control time. That’s the only time Jung has landed even a single takedown since 2012. Leading up to his win over Ige, Jung got dominated in another five-round decision, that time against Brian Ortega, who outlanded Jung 127-62 in significant strikes, while taking him down three times and knocking him down twice. That was actually the first time Jung required the judges in his UFC career, after his first eight UFC fights all ended early (6-2). Jung landed back-to-back first round knockouts against Frankie Edgar and Renato Moicano just before he lost to Ortega, after losing to Yair Rodriguez in a 2018 R5 buzzer beating KO with an insane no-look reverse upward-elbow as time expired. Those two practically fought to the death, with Jung leading 126-119 in significant strikes and 130-129 in total strikes. Both fighters failed to land a takedown—Jung on five attempts and Rodriguez on four. Jung joined the UFC all the way back in 2011, but had a three and a half year layoff from August of 2013 until February of 2017 due to a combination of injuries and Jung completing his South Korean mandatory military service.
Now 17-7 as a pro, Jung has six KO/TKOs, eight submissions, and three decision wins. Ten of those 14 finishes have come in the first round, with three more ending in round two. The only time he’s finished an opponent beyond the first round was his fourth round submission win over Poirier. Jung’s been knocked out four times and has three decision losses. Three of his four KO/TKO losses came in the championship rounds, with two in round four and one in round five. The other was a second round head kick knockout in his last fight before joining the UFC. After turning pro in 2007, Jung fought his first three pro fights at 154 lb before moving down to 145 lb in 2008, where he’s spent his entire UFC career.
This will be the 10th five-round fight of Jung’s UFC career and he went 5-4 in his previous nine. Four of those five wins ended early, including three in round one and one in round four, although his last win went the distance. Three of his four losses also ended early, although all four of the losses made it to the championship rounds. He got knocked out twice in round four and once in round five, while his other five-round loss went the distance.
Here are all of Jung’s five-round fights:
2022 R4 TKO L vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Title Fight)
2021 R5 DEC W vs. Dan Ige
2020 R5 DEC L vs. Brian Ortega
2019 R1 TKO W vs. Frankie Edgar
2019 R1 TKO W vs. Renato Moicano
2018 R5 KO L vs. Yair Rodriguez
2017 R1 KO W vs. Dennis Bermudez
2013 R4 TKO L vs. Jose Aldo (Title Fight)
2012 R4 SUB W vs. Dustin Poirier
Overall, Jung is a patient striker who fearlessly stalks his prey and has no problem walking through fire to land a shot. That approach worked well for him earlier in his career, but now it seems to just result in him absorbing a ton of damage. He holds black belts in Hapkido, Taekwondo, and Judo and he’s also a decent wrestler, but has only taken one of his last eight opponents down. In his 11 UFC fights, he’s landed 8 of his 17 takedown attempts (47.1% accuracy), but five of those successful takedowns came in his first three UFC fights. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 12 of their 42 attempts (71.4% defense). The UFC also factors in two of his WEC fights into his stats so his official takedown defense looks slightly different at 72% for anything that cares. He’s lost three of the last four decisions he’s been to and only has one decision win since 2008, so he relies on landing finishes to win fights. Now he’s facing an extremely durable opponent who has never been knocked out. Jung opted to train in Korea for this fight opposed to going to Fight Ready in Arizona like he had been previously.
Fight Prediction:
Holloway will have a 4” height advantage, but Jung will have a 3” reach advantage. Holloway is five years younger than the 36-year-old Jung.
Holloway comes in as a massive favorite and it seems totally justified. Jung has one decision win since 2008, and that required him to lean heavily on his wrestling, something he rarely does, as he’s only taken one of his last eight opponents down. Holloway has a really solid 84% takedown defense and has only been taken down once in his last 20 rounds of action, so it would be surprising to see Jung find a ton of wrestling success in this matchup. The chances of Jung outlanding Holloway in strikes are almost non-existent, leaving Jung reliant on landing a hail mary finish to pull off the upset. Holloway has never been knocked out and has only been submitted once, while Jung hasn’t finished anybody since 2019. So you can see why Holloway is as big of a favorite as he is. The only question for us here is whether Holloway can land a rare finish of his own or if he once again outlands his way to a high-volume decision win. Jung has been finished in the championship rounds in three of his four losses in UFC five-round fights, and another mercy stoppage is very much in play. However, Holloway hasn’t finished anybody since 2018, going 40 straight full rounds with a stoppage since then in eight straight five-round decisions (4-4). That makes it hard to feel confident in Holloway forcing a TKO stoppage here, but it’s still more likely than in any of his previous eight fights. We expect the fight to at least make it to the third round, and most likely to round four, but by that point things could be getting dicey for Jung’s survival if Holloway decides to really step on the gas. Holloway really needs to make a statement if he wants to build his case for a fourth fight against Volkanovski, and we also think the Hawaii wildfires give him a cause to really fight for. A motivated Holloway is a dangerous one, as we saw against Calvin Kattar, and that fight arguably should have been stopped. We expect to see something similar here and the result will likely come down to how much damage the ref is willing to see Jung take. A late TKO or a decision win for Holloway are both squarely in play, but we’ll say he forces a TKO stoppage either late in round three or early in round four through an accumulation of damage.
Our favorite bet here is “Holloway R4, R5 or DEC” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Holloway is coming off his lowest scoring win since 2019, but that’s not at all surprising considering he was facing Arnold Allen, who came in only averaging 2.25 SSA/min. Holloway still landed 147 significant strikes over five-rounds (5.88 SSL/min), but only scored 89 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel. That pales in comparison to his previous two decision wins, where he scored 153 and 209 DraftKings points respectively. Holloway is the king of striking volume and holds both of the top two spots when it comes to most significant strikes ever landed in a UFC fight. Jung averages 4.35 SSA/min and just absorbed 138 significant strikes in 15 minutes and 45 seconds of action (8.76/min) in his recent loss to Volkanovski, who was on pace to land 219 significant strikes had the fight gone the distance. Even in a fight where no other stats are accrued, a decision win with 219 significant strikes landed would be good for 118 DraftKings points and 151 points on FanDuel. And Holloway has twice blown by that number. Jung is now 36 years old and hasn’t competed in 16 months and could be looking to retire after this one if/when it doesn’t go his way. So all signs point to Holloway putting up a huge score, and he’ll likely lead the slate in scoring, especially on FanDuel where significant strikes are more valuable. Unfortunately, he’ll also be the highest owned fighter on both sites and the highest owned MVP on FanDuel. That will result in this being a tougher slate to create unique lineups, and make it all the more important to pair him with some low owned fighters in your lineups. The odds imply Holloway has an 85% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Jung has lost two of his last three fights and is now 36 years old and coming off a 16 month layoff, but he consistently scores well when he wins, as he’s averaged 116 DraftKings points in his seven UFC victories with 107 or more in his last six. As the cheapest fighter on the slate, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he pulls off the massive upset, but his chances of actually winning are extremely low. He’s the biggest dog on the slate and hasn’t won a decision since 2008, leaving him reliant on finishing Holloway, who’s never been knocked out in 31 pro fights. Obviously Jung would be a massive leverage play if he wins, but we really don’t see it happening and even at his low ownership we’re not excited about playing him. The odds imply Jung has a 15% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 2% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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