Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Enjoying The Sheet?
Buy Us a Beer!
The Flick vs. Durden, Evloev vs. Landwehr and Santos vs. De La Rosa fights have all been scratched! Ownership projections are canceled this week!
Fighter Notes:
Gian Villante
17th UFC Fight (7-9)After moving up to Heavyweight in his last fight, Villante appears to have decided he’s done cutting weight for good. He’s now lost his last two fights, three of his last four, and five of his last seven. His two wins over that time both came in split decisions.
His last two losses both came early, with a R3 Arm-Triangle Submission and a R1 KO from a body shot. Prior to the pair of losses, he fought to four straight decisions. He did have a stretch from 2015-2017 where five of his six fights ended with KO’s, and he won three of those. While 12 of his 17 pro wins have come early (10 by KO & two by submission), 8 of those 12 early wins came prior to joining the UFC in 2013.
Villante’s last early victory was a 2016 R2 KO against a terrible Saparbek Safarov who’s been finished early in three of his four UFC fights. Villante’s only performance that really stands out on paper is his R3 KO of Corey Anderson back in 2015. His only R1 finish in the UFC came in 2015 against a 43-year-old Anthony Perosh who had been knocked out six times prior, including five in R1. Now 35 years old, Villante seems to be slowing down, but maybe he has one more KO left in him.
In his last fight, Villante knocked Greene down in the third round and looked extremely close to finishing the fight. However, Greene was somehow able to survive on his back and it looked like Villante more or less punched himself out. Then with a very unusual variation of an Arm-Triangle Choke, Greene appeared to smother Villante as he pulled Villant’s face into his chest and somehow got Villante to tap. Had Villante gotten the finish there, it still would have only been good for 94 DraftKings points.
Seemingly a man caught between two weight classes, Villante appears too slow for the Light Heavyweights and too small for the Heavyweights. For the most part, he seemed to struggle to close the distance against the 6’7” Greene and his 82” reach. However, now he’ll get to face an opponent who’s the same height as him with just a 2” reach advantage, who is also coming off his first fight after moving up to Heavyweight. This seems like the perfect matchup for him.
Jake Collier
8th UFC Fight (3-4)After joining the UFC in 2014 in the Middleweight division (185 lb), Collier went 2-2 with a R1 KO loss, a decision win, a R2 KO loss and a R2 KO win. He then decided to move up to Light Heavyweight (205 lb), where he went 1-1 in a pair of decisions. Following a 2017 decision win, Collier took almost three years off due to a combination of factors, including injuries, suspensions and canceled fights. He finally stepped back into the octagon in 2020—only now 60 lb heavier and in the Heavyweight division.
Going against a mauler in Tom Apinall in his return, Collier’s first fight back didn’t last long. Aspinall disposed of Collier in just 45 seconds with an effortless KO. Honestly, the fight ended so quickly it was hard to take much away other than Collier looked terrible and Aspinall is going to be a problem for the rest of the Heavyweight division.
Collier’s lone early win in the UFC came against Alberto “Uda”, who went 0-2 in his UFC career with two early losses, before being shown the door. The R2 KO against Uda was the only time Collier has scored well in DFS.
For what it’s worth (spoiler: nothing), Collier has alternated wins and losses over his seven UFC fights and is coming off a loss.
Fight Prediction:
Seemingly every week we get a fight where we wish we could bet against both guys, and this one appears to fit that bill. Both guys are coming off early losses in their Heavyweight debuts, but the two fights couldn’t have gone much more differently. In fairness to Collier, he was going against a much tougher opponent, but he did not look like a UFC fighter at any point. Barring a miraculous transformation in the last four months, we assume he’ll look similar come Saturday and we can’t in good faith pick him to win this fight. So by default, we have Villante winning this one, but the real question is how will he get it done? It’s been four years since he finished an opponent early and five years since he did so in the first two rounds—which was also his only R1 win in the UFC. We think the most likely outcome here is either a late KO or a decision win for Villante, but based purely on how terrible Collier is, a R1 KO is certainly in play.
DFS Implications:
Villante hasn’t scored above 71 DraftKings points since 2016 but does get a juicy matchup here. The biggest issue is his price on both DFS sites. It’s hard to prioritize him over many of the other expensive plays, and given his lackluster recent history, it’s hard to get excited about him. That’s likely to be the common perception, however, so there’s a good chance his ownership will be kept in check. So as a contrarian play going against a vulnerable opponent he certainly makes sense, but there’s a good chance this is just a gross lower scoring fight between two guys each on their way out of the UFC.
Collier is the ultimate gag reflex, fade your eyes and brain, contrarian play if you really want to get crazy, but we’re by no means recommending him. It’s entirely possible his old vs. current weigh-in photos may have started the whole “How it started vs how it’s going” 2020 meme. We’re not saying it did, we’re saying it’s possible.
Ilia Topuria
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Eight weeks removed from a decision win in his short notice UFC debut over a really tough, never-been-finished Youssef Zalal, Topuria gets a higher upside matchup here in Damon Jackson.
Topuria looked great on his pre-UFC tape and his skills seemed to translate well into the UFC. He showed tremendous strength suplexing and controlling Zalal, and his BJJ black belt submission skills were evident as he seamlessly transitioned from one submission attempt to the next. Zalal was amazingly able to survive despite being in constant peril throughout the fight. It appeared most fighters would have tapped at multiple points. Topuria racked up 5 takedowns, 5 submission attempts and 12 advances in his impressive UFC debut.
Seeing the third round for the first time in his young career, the only knock on Topuria was that he looked exhausted by the end of the fight. But after taking the fight on just eight days notice and wrestling with “The Moroccan Devil” for three rounds, it’s hard to blame him.
Now 9-0 as a pro, Topuria has ended seven of his fights in the first four minutes of action. Of his eight early finishes, seven were by submission with just one ending in a KO.
One potential limitation on Topuria’s DFS ceiling is that he’s so highly skilled in his grappling game, he can end a fight so quickly that he doesn’t land a single strike. We’re not saying he will, but he has.
Damon Jackson
5th UFC Fight (1-1-1, NC)Making his return to the UFC in his last fight nearly five years after being released, Jackson pulled off the short notice upset in a comeback win against Mirsad Bektic this past September. In a fight he appeared to be losing badly, Jackson landed a R3 Guillotine Choke that scored a pathetic 59 DraftKings points.
Jackson originally joined the UFC in 2014 and did everything but win, with a 0-1-1, NC record before getting kicked out following a 2016 draw. The NC was originally a R1 submission loss before his opponent tested positive for a banned diuretic and it was overturned, or else his record would look even worse.
After getting bounced from the UFC, Jackson fought 10 fights, all but one with the LFA, going 8-2 before getting called back up. His two losses over that period both came by KO, while the majority of his wins were by submission, including five Rear-Naked Chokes.
Only 2 of his 22 pro fights have made it to the judges, while 10 have ended in R1. With 14 submission wins and just three KO’s he’s almost entirely a submission or bust play with no striking volume to rely on. All three of his career losses have come early, as did his loss that was later overturned to a NC.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, but we don’t see that mattering. This fight sets up as a submission clinic and is likely to play out primarily on the ground for as long as it lasts. However, Topuria showed legit KO power in his one career knockout and in some ways that would be the safer route for him to take against a grappling specialist with limited striking ability. Topuria is an up and coming stud, while Jackson appears little more than a cannon fodder retread. After giving Topuria a stiff test in his debut, the UFC seems to be throwing him a bone in this one. We love Topuria to get the early finish here and think betting his R1 line at +300 makes a lot of sense. His ITD line is obviously safer but won’t reap the same rewards.
DFS Implications:
Topurua’s a great play on both sites and one of our favorite guys to build around. He’s probably a slightly better play on DraftKings, where he’s relatively cheaper and can score off advances, but he can also rack up submission attempts on FanDuel also.
If Jackson does pull the upset, it’s likely to come early, but we don’t see it happening. And more importantly, he demonstrated a non-existent ceiling in his last finish and has now combined for a pathetic 109 DraftKings points in his four career fights. Theoretically Jackson could score decently with a win but we think Topuria is the play.
Jimmy Flick
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a win on DWCS, Flick landed a R3 Arm-Triangle Submission back in September to get his shot in the UFC. He tallied a ridiculous seven official submission attempts in the dominating performance.
A grappling specialist, 13 of Flick’s 15 career wins have come by submission, while he’s never knocked anyone out. On the other side of things, he’s been knocked out in four of his five losses, but has never been submitted. To this point in his career, he’s made a living primarily off of submitting opponents with Arm-Triangle Chokes, but he has a full bag of tricks and can seamlessly transition from one submission to the next. For what it’s worth, Durden has only been submitted once in his career and it came by Rear-Naked Choke.
Flick actually lost a fight against Durden’s first UFC opponent, Chris Gutierrez, by R3 KO due to leg kicks back in 2018. His most recent loss came against UFC newcomer Ray Rodriguez who was recently submitted in his short notice debut against Brian Kelleher.
Flick fought primarily at 135 lb until 2020 when he dropped down to 125 lb.
"This fight looks like it is going to be straight up madness!"
-Dana White on Flick vs. Durden
Cody Durden
2nd UFC Fight (0-0-1)Coming off a draw in his August UFC debut against Chris Gutierrez, Durden had finished his seven previous opponents early, including five in R1. Only one of his 11 career wins made it to the judges, while five ended with KO’s and five in submissions. He only has two career losses—one by submission and another by decision.
A former two time wrestling state champ, Durden also fought at 135 lb until his UFC debut when he dropped down to 125 lb.
Durden dominated the first round in his debut, but after taking the fight on short notice and absorbing a heavy low blow, he seemed to fade later in the fight. Considering he had previously only been to the third round three times in 13 fights, it’s fair to question his cardio.
Partially based on his late fatigue, Durden ended up going just 2 for 13 on takedowns in the fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Flick will have a slight 1“ reach advantage. This sets up as an intriguing matchup between two skilled grapplers. We think Flick is the slicker of the two with his submission attempts, but Durden has shown to be more of the KO threat. We like Flick to win by submission later in the fight, but wouldn’t be shocked if Durden pulls the upset.
DFS Implications:
Both guys make for interesting DFS plays in their own right. Based on his last fight, we think Flick is more likely to be credited with a high number of submission attempts, which would increase his value on FanDuel—where he could also benefit from Durden’s poor takedown accuracy, if that trend continues. Aside from that, we think both guys have the ability to score well on either DFS site, but we could see a ton of points scored through advances and reversals on DraftKings especially.
Jordan Leavitt
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a R1 Arm-Triangle Submission win on DWCS back in August, Leavitt is a submission specialist who only seems to have one foot in the door on even being a pro fighter. A Poli Sci major at UNLV, he’s talked about how he still wants to go to law school and there are tons of things he could do. He does come into this fight with a perfect 7-0 record that includes five submission wins, but he seems like a one dimensional grappler with four of his five finishes coming against very inexperienced opponents. His finishes came against opponents who entered with records of: 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 3-0 and 9-1. None of those opponents have fought again since losing to Leavitt—potentially out of embarrassment due to Leavitt’s victory celebration.
In his DWCS win, Leavitt landed just four significant strikes, one submission attempt and a single takedown as he controlled his opponent on the ground for over four minutes before eventually submitting him. He definitely seems like the type of guy that could string together advances, so he’s a little more interesting on DraftKings than on FanDuel.
Leavitt fought at 145 lb until 2020 when he moved up to the 155 lb division. He was a high school wrestler, which has clearly guided his fighting style. He now faces an opponent who’s 12 years older than him.
Matt Wiman
18th UFC Fight (10-7)After originally joining the UFC in 2006, Wiman stepped away in 2014 and wasn’t sure if he’d ever return. He did finally make a comeback in 2019 and has since lost both of his fights with a R3 KO followed by a smothering decision. After getting dominated on the ground by Joe Solecki, Wiman now hasn’t fought in almost exactly a year and seems on the verge of leaving the UFC for good.
At 37 years old, Wiman has just four KO wins in his career with the last one coming in 2008—when Leavitt would have been in middle school. We haven’t really seen Leavitt take much damage so it’s hard to gauge his chin, but Wiman seems like an unlikely candidate to knock anyone out at this stage in his career. The more likely way for him to end a fight would be with a submission—most likely off his back based on how we see this fight playing out.
He has five submission wins to his name: a 2012 R1 Armbar, 2010 R1 Guillotine Choke, 2008 R1 Rear-Naked Choke, 2004 R1 Armbar, and a 2004 R2 Triangle Choke. A Guillotine or Triangle Submission could potentially come into play here if Leavitt slips up.
Fight Prediction:
Another week, another expensive DWCS fighter making his UFC debut. That hasn’t exactly been a recipe for success lately, but one of these huge DWCS favorites is bound to win eventually, right? Matt Wiman seems like an unimposing opponent at this stage in his life, but has generally been a tough guy to finish for the majority of his career—at least outside of getting knocked out in two of his last three losses. More importantly for this matchup, Wiman has never been submitted in his 16 year pro career and six of his nine career losses have come in decisions. We think Leavitt controls this one on the ground and ultimately wins a decision.
DFS Implications:
It’s possible Leavitt’s ownership comes in a little lower than your typical -400 favorite, as we think many people may be a little jaded with DWCS fighters making their UFC debuts as large favorites after the recent flops by Parisian and Cosce most notably. Then again, maybe we’re overestimating how many people are actually paying that much attention.
Anyways, despite the oddsmakers thinking this one ends early, we’re still betting on it going to a decision. While a low striking volume, grappling match is less likely to score well on FanDuel, Leavitt could theoretically stack up advances and still score decently on DraftKings. Without the ability to score on advances he seems entirely reliant on a R1 submission to score well on FanDuel.
While Wiman’s 56% takedown defense isn’t great, there’s always a chance he could prop up his FanDuel score with some takedowns defended against an opponent who has no interest in keeping the fight standing up. At just $9, there’s always a chance he finds a way to sneak into winning lineups, but we’re not big on him and think it’s more likely he spends the majority of this fight being controlled on the ground.
Louis Smolka
15th UFC Fight (7-7)Win or lose, Louis Smolka seems to be done with leaving fights up to the judges. He initially joined the UFC in 2014—the same year as Quinonez—and saw six of his first 10 fights go to decisions. He lost the last four fights out of those ten, with the last three being decided by the judges. Following the streak of losses, he was let go by the UFC and forced to fight elsewhere.
He seemed to take the demotion in stride and won three straight fights in 2018 with a R1 KO, a R3 Guillotine Submission and a R2 KO. Following the string of early victories, the UFC decided to give him another shot less than a year after releasing him. He made the most of his second opportunity, landing a R2 Armbar submission upon his return.
It’s notable to point out that while Smolka fought at 125 lb in his first stint in the UFC, he moved up to the 135 lb division when he returned. The switch seemed to do him good and he talked about how rough the weight cut down to 125 lb was for him based on his height. He also talked about dealing with alcohol abuse earlier in his career, that he had since gotten past. He did lose his second fight back against a tough Matt Schnell by R1 Triangle Choke, but if you fight for finishes you can’t expect to win them all. He bounced back from that loss with a R1 KO win, before most recently losing by R1 Guillotine Choke against Casey Kenney.
His last seven fights have now all ended early, with his last three ending in R1. He hasn’t lost back to back fights since getting booted from the UFC in 2017, and likely wants to keep it that way. At just 29 years old, Smolka has been through more than most fighters his age, but theoretically his best years could still be ahead of him.
Jose Quinonez
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Coming off a March 2020 R1 KO loss to Sean O'Malley, Quinonez has lost two of his last three fights. Prior to his recent loss, he won a three round decision, but the fight before that was a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submissions loss against Nathaniel Wood.
After losing his 2014 UFC debut in a low volume decision, Quinonez bounced back with his only early victory in the UFC coming via a R1 Rear-Naked Choke. The early win marked the beginning of a four fight win streak that he milked over the next four years. The next three wins all came in decisions.
Fight Prediction:
While Smolka has been finished early three times in his career, all by submission, those all came against much better grapplers than Quinonez. We like Smolka to bounce back from his loss to Kenney and get the early win here. We like the Smolka ITD line at +195 as well as his +425 R1 and +650 R2 odds.
DFS Implications:
Smolka was born for DFS. He hits hard enough that the majority of his strikes are counted as significant, but not so hard that he can’t rack up volume. He can finish opponents on the feet or on the mat—meaning he can score well wherever the fight goes. And he loses enough that his ownership and price don’t get out of control, but wins enough that you can feel good about playing him.
In his last four UFC wins, he’s scored a massive 130, 105, 162 and 116 DraftKings points. Also, his DraftKings sheet makes his record look worse than it really is, as it doesn’t show his three early wins outside of the UFC. So casuals may look at it and mistakenly think he’s lost 6 of his last 8 fights.
When this fight was originally scheduled on November 14th, Smolka was $8,400 on DraftKings and $17 on FanDuel, while Quinonez was $7,800 and $15 respectively. Now just three weeks later both sites decided to price Smolka down to $8,300 and $15. It really makes no sense why both fighters in this match would be priced at $15 on FanDuel when Smolka has been the favorite all along, but hey, it’s entirely possible we’ll look back on FanDuel’s head scratching decision and bow to their ultimate wisdom if Smolka busts. Nevertheless, Smolka looks like an exceptionally good value on FanDuel and a solid play on DraftKings with slate breaking potential. He’ll also almost certainly go underowned at CPT/MVP.
Quinonez’s last four wins have come in low volume decisions, while he’s also failed to land more than two takedowns in his last five fights. When you combine that with the fact that his last two losses have come early, Quinonez seems like a low floor, low ceiling DFS play. He does have two R1 KO wins to his name, but those came in his first and third pro fights against opponents who had never fought professionally before and never fought again after. He was also KO’d in 2013 by the now UFC fighter Davi Ramos, who’s exclusively a grappler and has never KO’d anyone else in his career. Really the only thing Quinonez has going for him is that Smolka has been finished in the first round in two of his last three fights.
Not a high volume striker, Quinonez requires the perfect storm of striking, knockdowns, takedowns and advances to score well in decisions. He was able to achieve that once in a bizarrely high scoring 2016 decision that tallied 118 DraftKings points through 56 significant strikes, 2 knockdowns, 5 takedowns and 5 advances. His last three wins, which were also all decisions, scored nowhere near that, coming in at 86, 68 and 71 DraftKings points. It seems fair to say the 2016 result was simply an anomaly.
Movsar Evloev
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Continuing his perfect 13-0 pro record with his third straight decision win in the UFC, Evloev went 10-0 on the tough M-1 Russian scene before joining the UFC.
In his most recent fight, Evloev squared off against wrestler Mike Grundy and narrowly escaped some dangerous submission attempts. After going 9 for 27 on takedowns in his first two UFC fights, Evloev didn’t attempt a single one against Grundy. That can likely be explained by the fact that Grundy clearly wanted the fight on the ground and Evloev obviously had the advantage on the feet. Evloev is a smart fighter and seems fully capable of adapting his approach to attack his opponent’s weaknesses.
While he’s not a power puncher, he tends to wear on his opponents. He does have three knockouts on his record, with one in each of the first, second and fifth rounds. He also has four submission wins, including one in R1, two in R2 and one in R3.
"Stylistically this fight is absolutely insane. Do not miss it!"
-Dana White on Landwehr vs. Evloev
Nate Landwehr
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After getting knocked out in R1 by Herburt Burns in his January 2020 UFC debut, Landwehr bounced back with a decision win in a bloody brawl against Darren Elkins. Elkins actually outlanded Landwehr 121-118, but went 1 for 13 on takedowns and left with substantially less blood than he came with. It did seem like Elkins won the third round, so it was a little surprising to see that two of the judges scored it 30-27 for Landwehr. Then again, when are we not surprised by the scorecards?
While Landwehr’s takedown defense was solid against Elkins (33% career takedown accuracy), that fight was so sloppy the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Defending a half-hearted takedown from an exhausted man covered in his own blood is a lot easier than defending one from a dry technical grappler. Elkins seemed to land his first takedown of the match without too much trouble before things got crazy. Burns was also easily able to get Landwehr down on his only takedown attempt and nearly submitted him in their fight, before knocking him out.
Landwehr, which literally translates in German to “Land Defender” is the perfect name for a guy who wants to go to battle every time he steps in the cage. Unfortunately for him, it appears he’ll be outflanked in this one against an opponent who’s far less likely to be as accommodating as Elkins.
While Landwher is 14-3 as a pro and has won eight of his last nine fights, his last two losses both came early with a R1 KO and a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission.
Fight Prediction:
Landwehr will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters have the same reach. We think Evloev will be ready for Landwher, and while he may look to test out his striking early, he can rely on his grappling if things start to get hairy. Look for him to pick Landwher apart on the feet and control him on the ground as needed. While all three of Evloev’s UFC fights have ended in decisions, he ended seven of his ten prior matches early—three with KO’s and four by submission. All four of those submissions were by Rear-Naked Choke, which is also how Landwehr was defeated in his only submission loss. The odds that Evloev Wins by Submission at +450, R2 Submission Win at +1800, and R3 Submission Win at +1900 all seem too long. We like Evloev’s chances to finally get his first early finish in the UFC here, but would by no means be surprised if it ended in another decision.
DFS Implications:
After three straight middling DFS performances, we could see Evloev being underowned yet again (he was only 10% owned on DraftKings in his last fight as a-194 favorite at $9,100/$18). We’ve yet to see a ceiling performance from him, but it’s just a matter of time, and this is as good a spot as any. Going against a high-volume striker like Landwehr, who can’t compete with Evloev on the ground, could be the perfect recipe to finally see Evloev blow up.
Landwehr hasn’t attempted a takedown in the UFC and is unlikely to attempt one here, so Evloev is unlikely to add any points from takedowns defended on FanDuel. When you add that to the fact that he’s relatively cheaper on DraftKings and can also score off advances, he makes for a better play over there.
After going to war with Elkins, we think Landwehr is likely to be perceived as underpriced on both DFS sites and therefore overowned relative to his chances of winning. It’s another one of those situations where he’s so cheap that it’s theoretically possible he remains in play even with a loss, but only if all of the favorites on the slate win, and that’s always an unlikely scenario. Evloev has had the largest line move in his favor on the slate and Landwehr looks like a DFS value trap. However, if you’re so inclined to play him, he makes more sense on FanDuel where he’s relatively cheaper and can score from takedowns defended.
Roman Dolidze
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a R1 KO in his July UFC debut, Dolidze is a self described grappler, who claims not to be a good striker. He’s also knocked out his last four opponents, so it’s hard to tell if he’s joking. He only has seven pro fights but he’s won them all, while never having to deal with the judges. Five of the seven have ended in the first round, one in the second and one in the third. He won his first three fights with submissions—two by Heel Hook and one by Rear-Naked Choke.
He approached his debut with a very methodical, counterpunching style that looked likely to score poorly if he didn’t get the first round finish. However, after several minutes of posturing he landed a late R1 KO introducing his knee to the face of Ibragimov as he went to throw a kick.
Prior to that fight, he hadn’t fought since December 2018 after having multiple fights canceled—two due to injury and one from COVID.
John Allan
2nd UFC Fight (0-0, NC)After winning a decision in his July 2019 UFC debut against Mike Rodriguez, Allan had the result overturned to a No Contest and was hit with a year long suspension when he tested positive for tamoxifen – a prohibited estrogen blocker used to treat gynecomastia, which Allan said he’d been using since he was a teenager. During his suspension Allan had gynecomastia surgery so he no longer needs to take the banned medicine. Allan was understandably upset about the suspension since he felt he had done nothing wrong.
Now 17 months removed since he last fought, it will be interesting to see how Allan looks in his return to the octagon. He comes in 13-5 as a pro, not counting his No Contest, with 12 of those wins coming early—nine by KO and three by submission. Rarely making it to the judges, four of his five losses have also come early, all by submission. Despite all the early finishes, his last six fights have all made it out of the first round. His last three losses have all been R2 submissions.
Fight Prediction:
Allan will have a 1” height advantage but Dolidze will have a 1” reach advantage. We think Dolidze is both the more powerful fighter as well as the superior grappler and it will be interesting to see where he looks to take this fight. Since Allan has shown he’s vulnerable to being submitted, it would make sense for Dolidze to showcase his grappling more in this match. It’s entirely possible he gets another KO, but we like the Dolidze Win by Submission line at +500, as well as the R2 Submission line, which we’ve seen as high as +1700. Regardless of how it happens, we like Dolidze to get another finish here—although we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the fight spill into the second round.
DFS Implications:
Dolidze stands out as an exceptional value play on FanDuel as the second cheapest favorite on the slate, while actually being tied for the best chances of getting a R1 finish. Don’t get us wrong, he’s a solid DraftKings play as well. The one concern we have with him is that he was really waiting for the fight to come to him in his debut and didn’t seem even the slightest bit interested in pushing the pace. Even with a best case scenario late R1 finish, where we often see fighters put up slate breaking scores, Dolidze mustered a respectable but unexceptional 110 DraftKings points. In fairness, it’s just one fight and we didn’t see any grappling, but as of now he appears to be a R1 or bust fighter with no real striking volume to rely on.
According to the oddsmakers, Allan has roughly a 36% chance to win this fight and they have it as the most likely on the slate to end early. So from a pure numbers standpoint he seems like a pretty reasonable underdog play. With that said, we’re not sure how he beats Dolidze, but it’s a fight and anything’s possible.
Taila Santos
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a July decision win over a tough Molly McCann, Santos came into the UFC in 2019 with a perfect 14-0 record that included 11 R1 finishes as well as one in R2. Ten of those finishes came by KO while two were by submission.
However, in her UFC debut she lost a split decision to a highly suspect fighter in Mara Romero Borella, who’s now lost five of her last six fights. Borella was able to control Santos on the ground and against the fence for extended periods of time in the first two rounds, which is obviously concerning. Santos looked better in the third round but it was too little, too late as she ended up losing the decision.
Santos has now seen her last three fights all end in decisions, beginning with her 2018 DWCS match. Following her February 2019 UFC debut, Santos had three fights canceled—one due to an opponent injury, another from a Santos injury, and most recently because of COVID—so she was forced to take a longer layoff than she would have liked. She didn’t fight again until July 2020 when she beat McCann.
Santos was previously fighting at 134 lb right before joining the UFC, but she then dropped down to 125 lb. She’s only fought three times since 2016, after she took some time off following a 2016 fight to have a baby. It’s possible after the extended layoff and major life event that she’s simply not the same finisher she used to be. It’s also possible that her domination on the lower levels just didn’t translate well into the UFC—as is often the case with fighters making the step up.
Montana De La Rosa
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Stepping in on just two and half weeks notice after Maryna Moroz dropped out, De La Rosa is three months removed from a decision loss to Viviane Araujo. A former high school wrestler, De La Rosa now seems to be getting a little more comfortable with her standup game.
She notably was fighting down at 115 lb right before joining the UFC, but then moved up to 125 lb in 2017 for her first TUF fight.
Eight of her 11 wins have come early—all by submission—with five Armbars and three Rear-Naked Chokes. Four of her six losses came in decisions, with her only two early losses coming to Mackenzie Dern and Cynthia Calvillo prior to joining the UFC.
De La Rosa is 5-4 in her last 9 fights and none of those wins were against very impressive opponents. Here are the results from her last nine fights:
2016 R1 Submission Loss to then 1-0 Mackenzie Dern (now 9-1)
2017 R3 KO Loss to then 2-0 Cynthia Calvillo (now 9-2)
2017 R3 Armbar Submission Win vs. then 7-9 Kathina Lowe (now 7-10 and never fought again)
2017 R1 Armbar Submission Win on TUF vs. then 8-8 Christina Marks (now 8-10, hasn’t fought since 2018)
2018 R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission Win on TUF vs. then 4-3 Rachael Ostovich (now 4-6 and has lost three straight)
2019 R2 Armbar Submission Win vs. then 5-0 Nadia Kassem (now 5-2 and hasn’t fought in over a year)
2019 R3 Decision Loss vs. then 11-2 Andrea Lee (now 11-5 and has lost three straight)
2020 R3 Decision Win vs. then 12-6 Mara Romero Borella (now 12-9 and has lost four straight)
2020 R3 Decision Loss vs. then 8-2 Viviane Araujo (now 9-2)
Fight Prediction:
For what it’s worth, and that’s probably not much, De La Rosa beat a common opponent in Mara Romero Borella in a 2020 decision. Both Santos and De La Rosa have shown they’re capable of ending fights early, but we think Santos wins this one in a decision. She’s unlikely to be able to control De La Rosa on the ground the way she did the shorter Molly McCann, but will likely have the striking advantage on the feet.
DFS Implications:
Despite her last fight ending in a decision, Santos was still able to score a respectable 99 DraftKings points, primarily on the back of five takedowns (on seven attempts) and five advances. We think she’s less likely to repeat that ground performance here.
With both of their last three fights ending in decisions, it’s hard to get too excited about either fighter. If the fight plays out how we’re guessing, which it may not, Santos would be a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings based on her solid takedown defense and relatively cheaper price tag. However, if this does turn into a grappling match then advances and reversals on DraftKings could end up playing a larger role than we’re anticipating.
De La Rosa seems unlikely to score well outside of an early finish—a result the oddsmakers have set at +505 which translates to roughly a 16% chance. She’s likely a better play on DraftKings where she can score off advances, but she is relatively cheaper on FanDuel and has the chance to score off takedowns defended and submission attempts.
You’ll likely want to have a little exposure to each of these fighters, but neither one stands out as an exceptional play. Santos does seem to be a reasonable play on FanDuel at $17 if you can’t fit in anyone above her.
Gabriel Benitez
10th UFC Fight (5-4)This fight was originally scheduled for 11/14 until Benitez tested positive for COVID. Now seemingly recovered, it gets rebooked just three weeks later.
Coming off back to back losses, Benitez gruesomely split his shin open in his last fight, but was able to fight through it to eventually lose a decision. In his fight prior to that one, he was KO’d in R1 by a powerful Sodiq Yusuff. Benitez has only fought three times in the last three years, and his last win was back in 2018. He’s now lost four of his last seven fights and desperately needs a win here to avoid a three fight skid.
Of his 21 career wins, 17 have come early, with 7 KO’s and 10 submissions. Four of his eight losses have also come early—all in R1—with two KO’s and two submissions. Two of his last three fights ended with R1 KO’s, with him winning one of those.
Benitez came into the UFC in 2014 fighting at 145 lb, where he stayed until moving up to 155 lb in his last fight. This upcoming fight will also be at 155 lb.
Justin Jaynes
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After exploding onto the scene with a 41 second R1 KO of Frank Camacho in his June UFC debut, Jaynes’ deficiencies were exposed in his last fight against Gavin Tucker. To his credit, his one dimensional power-punching fighting style almost got it done again, as he was able to sit Tucker down towards the end of the first round, but he couldn’t finish the show and looked outmanned from that point on. He was nearly choked out by a pantsed opponent as the first round came to a close and then looked tired and lost for the remainder of the fight. Tucker severely outstruck Jaynes in the second round, before finishing him in the third with a hard knee up the middle followed by a Rear-Naked Choke Submission.
Prior to the recent loss, Jaynes had won five straight fights in the first round and had never been finished early. Only two of his 16 career wins have been by decision and he prides himself on finishing opponents.
After fighting his UFC debut at 155 lb, Jaynes dropped down to 145 lb for his most recent fight. After the failed experiment at 145 lb, he’ll now go back up to 155 lb. He’s fought anywhere from 155-170 lb before his last fight, but the vast majority of his fights have been at 155 lb so that appears to be where he’s most comfortable.
Jaynes discussed in a recent interview how his father will be in his corner for this fight. His dad apparently has cancer and this could be the last time he gets to see him fight. So fire up the narrative takes, they don’t get much more dramatic than this.
Fight Prediction:
Benitez will have a slight 1” height advantage and a 3” reach advantage in this fight. This sets up as a standup striking battle with Benitez likely to have the speed advantage, while Jaynes is the more powerful puncher. Desperate for a win, Benitez needs to avoid getting caught by Jaynes’ left hook. Jaynes will be looking to turn this fight into a brawl from the opening bell, while Benitez should be focussing on controlling the distance and attacking Jaynes with a variety of strikes. If Jaynes can land a clean left hook on Benitez early on, he has a chance of finishing this one quickly. However, if Benitez can successfully dictate the distance, we think he’ll drag this into the second round and wear away at Jaynes as the fight goes on. If that happens, look for Benitez to either land a late finish of his own or win in a decision. We think the second scenario is slightly more likely, but neither outcome would really surprise us here. It’s hard not to root for Jaynes given the narrative around this fight, but we try not to make emotionally based financial decisions.
With that said, we like the Jaynes R1 win line given the odds, which we’ve seen as high as +650. Considering that five of his 16 career wins have come by submission, his submission line at +2000 also seems too good to pass up.
DFS Implications:
Jaynes is a R1 or bust play who hasn’t shown us much from a grappling standpoint in his first two UFC fights—although in fairness he does have five submissions in his career. He did wrestle in college for what it’s worth, but appears to be content with relying entirely on striking so far in the UFC. There’s always a chance he knocks Benitez down and then jumps on top for a submission.
A crisp striker who throws violent leg kicks, Benitez only has one takedown in his nine UFC fights, so he’s unlikely to prop up his scores with grappling stats. He throws a decent amount of volume, but not enough to score well in a decision. Jaynes did notably absorb 7.4 significant strikes per minute in his last fight, so the potential for Benitez to rack up a large amount of striking volume is certainly there. However, we think that will only go far enough to keep a R2 or late R3 finish in play for DFS, while coming up short in a decision. At the time of this writing, Benitez’s odds to win inside the distance are +175, giving him roughly a 34-35% implied chance of getting it done.
Jamahal Hill
3rd UFC Fight (1-0, NC)After scoring his first early finish in the UFC with a R1 KO last May, Hill was suspended when he tested positive for marijuana and the fight was unfortunately overturned to a No Contest. Ignoring the irrelevant aftermath, Hill should be 8-0 as a pro with four KO’s, including three in R1.
All of his fights that haven’t ended in KO’s have ended in decision wins. While he showed solid volume in his lone UFC decision, he doesn’t add anything in the ground game, which makes him reliant on an early finish to score well.
After successfully defending all four of the takedowns attempted on him in his 2019 DWCS fight, Hill was taken down six times on nine attempts in his UFC debut. His last fight didn’t last long enough for anyone to attempt a takedown.
Hill seems more physically gifted than technically sound, which could present problems for him against a more experienced opponent like OSP. It would make sense for OSP to take this fight to the mat opposed to fighting Hill’s game of stand up striking.
Ovince Saint Preux
23rd UFC Fight (13-9)Coming off a R2 KO of the shorter and less experienced Alonzo Menifield, the 37-year-old OSP desperately needed the win after losing four of his six prior.
After a failed move up to Heavyweight in a May 2020 decision loss to Ben Rothwell, OSP moved back down to 205 lb and looked better than he has in a while. A one dimensional power puncher, Menifield had previously never been finished before getting face planted with a clean left hook in the second round against a retreating OSP.
While OSP’s last six wins have now all come early, none of them have scored exceptionally well for DFS purposes. Two of his last three losses have ended in decisions, as have 9 of his 14 career losses. His last five fights all made it to at least the second round and his methodical approach seems to reduce the chances of his fights ending quickly. His low striking volume generally lowers the DFS ceiling for both him and his opponents.
He’s only been knocked out twice in 39 pro fights—most recently in R2 of a 2016 fight against Jimi Manuwa and prior to that in R2 of a 2009 fight before he joined the UFC. He seems more vulnerable to being submitted than knocked out, which is something that Hill seems unlikely to take advantage of.
Fight Prediction:
It would make sense for OSP to try and take this fight to the ground and set up his Saint Preux Choke, but the same could have been said in his last two fights and he didn’t attempt a single takedown in either match. If he opts out of rational decision making, we’re looking for him to counter punch off his back foot while avoiding serious damage from Hill. We think it’s unlikely Hill knocks OSP out, and more likely wins a decision if he can stay upright.
DFS Implications:
We think Hill will be overowned on both DFS sites at his reasonable price tag and coming off a high scoring first round finish. This fight feels like a trap, but it’s possible another moderately scoring R2 OSP submission win would be enough to be useful at his price if the fighters priced around him fail.
Of course there’s always a chance the younger Hill gets the early KO and shreds his DFS price tag, but that’s why he’ll be over owned in the first place. It’s not a comfortable fade, but we think you’ll at least want to be under the field on both guys.
UPDATE: OSP was the only fighter to miss weight coming in 1.5 lb over the limit. Curiously he was the second person to weigh in and declined the opportunity to continue cutting weight. He also looked a little sleepy so maybe he just really wanted a nap.
Jack Hermansson
12th UFC Fight (8-3)Bouncing back from a 2019 R2 KO loss with a R1 Heel Hook Submission win in his last fight, 9 of Hermansson’s last 10 fights have ended early. Six of those didn’t make it out of the first round. Hermansson’s three UFC losses all came in the first two rounds, beginning with a 2016 R2 Arm-Triangle Submission loss in his second UFC fight against Cezar Ferreira, who coincidentally lost a decision to Vettori in his last fight. Hermansson’s other two UFC losses were a 2017 R1 KO against Thiago Santos and a 2019 R2 KO versus Jared Cannonier.
Of his 21 career victories, 17 have come early, with 11 KO’s and 6 submissions. Ten of those wins came in the first round. His last three early wins were all by submission, but he does have three KO victories in the UFC. All three of those resulted from heavy ground and pound, something that Hermansson prides himself on. You definitely don’t want to find yourself mounted by this guy.
Two of his last three fights were five round main events, one of which went the distance in a Hermansson win over Ronaldo Souza. The other ended with his R2 KO loss to Cannonier. Outside of his three UFC losses, he has one other early loss as a pro—which came in a 2013 R1 Triangle Choke—and one 2012 decision loss.
Whether it’s through his submission game or via ground and pound, Hermansson generally finishes his opponents on the mat, while his last two losses have come standing up.
Marvin Vettori
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)Stepping into this fight on a week’s notice after Kevin Holland tested positive for COVID, Vettori comes in on a three fight winning streak and fresh off a R1 Submission win in his first early finish since his 2016 UFC debut. Prior to the recent R1 win, Vettori had gone to six straight decisions with a 3-2-1 record over that period.
While Vettori’s 5-2-1 UFC record doesn’t necessarily jump out on paper, his only loss since 2016 was against Israel Adesanya in a 2018 split decision. His only other UFC loss came in his 2nd UFC fight, in a 2016 decision against Antonio Carlos Jr.
Despite his physically imposing stature and aggressive fighting style, Vettori has nine career submission wins, but just two finishes by KO. His nine submissions have consisted of four Rear-Naked Chokes, three Guillotine Chokes, one toe hold and one triangle choke. Impressively, he’s never been finished in his 19 pro fights.
The only other scheduled five round fight of his career came prior to joining the UFC, but it ended in R1, so we’ve never seen how he looks after the 15 minute mark.
Fight Prediction:
Hermansson will have a slight 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage in this one. It’s kind of interesting to see the replacement fighter who’s taking the fight on short notice be the slight favorite here, but as the odds suggest this one feels pretty close. In a straight pick ‘em we would still lean Hermansson to win this one, so getting him with plus odds seems like a solid bet.
With that said, this should be a good fight and we could see it going either way. Vettori notably has a solid 80% takedown defense, and as we mentioned earlier, the ground is where Hermansson does his best work.
This will be Vettori’s first five round fight in the UFC, so especially given the fact that he took the fight on a week’s notice, it’s fair to wonder how his cardio will hold up if the fight makes it to the later rounds.
It’s tough to pin down how this one will play out—Hermansson has a history of early finishes, while Vettori has been a decision machine for the majority of his UFC career. We’re not taking a real hard stand here but we’ll side with Hermansson, most likely winning either by submission or in a decision.
DFS Implications:
Hermansson has shown he can generally score well with both early finishes or in a five round decision. While Vettori has only hit 100 DraftKings points twice in his career, his lowest score in a three round decision win was 73 points. If he can keep even close to that space over the course of five rounds, he would easily break the century mark on DraftKings in a five round decision win.
There are always ways guys can fail, but with both fighters priced right in the middle on DraftKings it feels like you’ll want a piece of this fight in all of your lineups.
With both guys priced relatively higher on FanDuel, there are more ways the winner is left out of the optimal lineup, however both guys make for very strong plays. We prefer the cheaper Hermansson on both sites, but it makes sense to have solid exposure to both guys. We’re fine with hedging pretty heavily here and looking to differentiate elsewhere.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma