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Fight Day Scratches:
Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Denys Bondar
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Finally making his UFC debut, Bondar had previously been scheduled to debut at three different times but all of those fights were canceled. Hopefully this one actually happens. He comes in with an impressive 14-2 pro record with all 14 of his wins coming early, including four KOs and 10 submissions. His two losses occurred in consecutive fights with a 2016 R3 submission and a 2017 decision. He hasn’t competed in a year and a half, his last fight dating back to an August 2020 R1 submission win under a Ukrainian organization for the WWFC Bantamweight belt. Eleven of Bondar’s 14 wins have come in round one as he’s only been past the second round four times in his career (2-2). It’s worth noting that he’s gone to a decision just once. He’s won his last eight fights, with four of his last five wins ending in round one.
Primarily a grappler, Bondar has decent striking but he’s generally looking to take his opponents to the mat and beat them up while he hunts for submissions. Nine of his last 11 wins have come by submission as he appears fond of locking up arm-triangle chokes to finish opponents. He consistently overpowers fighters in the 125 lb division, but it will be interesting to see if he can continue his dominance at the next level in the UFC. He’s faced a lot of dubious competition and only 8 of his 14 career wins have come against opponents with winning records. It looks like the UFC has teed him up with a very favorable matchup as he steps inside the Octagon for the first time.
Malcolm Gordon
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After losing his first two UFC fights in the first round, Gordon finally notched his first win with the organization against a fraudulent Francisco Figueiredo. Gordon hunted aggressively for takedowns in that fight, but his overeagerness quickly found him on his back. After spending half a round in bottom position, he finally escaped after Figueiredo foolishly looked for a heel hook. Gordon continued to push the pace in the fight as he never let Figueiredo get comfortable and went on to win a decision. While he only landed 2 of his 11 takedown attempts, getting taken down on both of Figueiredo’s two attempts, Gordon led in significant strikes 46-28 and in totals strikes 100-52. He also led in control time 6:01 to 4:15 as he won a grappling heavy affair.
Prior to that win, Gordon suffered back-to-back first round losses in his first two UFC fights. Both of those came against tough opponents, making his debut in July 2020 up at Bantamweight (135 lb) against Amir Albazi, who submitted him late in the first round. He did have three previous fights at 135 lb and won all three of those by KO, but the rest of his career has been down at Flyweight (125 lb).
Gordon dropped back down to Flyweight for his next fight, which came against bright up-and-coming prospect Su Mudaerji. We didn’t get much of a chance to see how Gordon looks at 125 lb in that bout as Mudaerji knocked him out in just 44 seconds. Gordon didn’t land a single strike in the fight and Mudaerji put on a flawless performance.
A BJJ black belt, 9 of Gordon’s last 10 fights have ended early, with eight of those not making it out of the first round and another ending early in round two. Gordon has gone 7-3 over that stretch with two KO wins, four by submission, and the one recent decision. Two of those three losses ended in first round knockouts, while he was also submitted once in round one, however the submission in his UFC debut is the only time he’s ever been submitted.
Looking at his entire career, Gordon is currently 13-5 as a pro with four wins by KO, six by submission, and three by decision. All five of his career losses have come early, with four KOs and one submission. His first two career losses were by R2 KO, but his last three have all occurred in R1. He’s only been to the third round three times in his career and those all ended in decisions. His other 15 career fights have all ended in the first two rounds. He came into the UFC on a four fight winning streak (3 Submissions & 1 KO), with three of those coming in round one and one in round two.
Fight Prediction:
Gordon will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as another stiff challenge for Gordon as he goes against a surging 14-2 UFC newcomer with a 100% finishing rate. The only thing working in Gordon’s favor here is that he prefers grappling over striking, and Bondar is primarily a grappler. With that said, Bondar looks dangerous wherever fights go and it’s hard to see Gorden pulling off the upset even if this does turn into a grappling match. Bondar should be able to manhandle Gordon and get a finish in the first two rounds, most likely by round one submission, but we wouldn’t eliminate the possibility of a knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Bondar ITD” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Bondar looks like a DFS stud with a high paced grappling-heavy approach and a 100% finishing rate in his 14 pro wins. Making his UFC debut on an eight fight winning streak, the only reason for any concern is that he hasn’t fought in a year and a half after having his debut scheduled and canceled at three different times. Eleven of Bondar’s 14 career wins have come in the first round and Gordon has been finished in all five of his career losses, with his last three losses ending in round one, including two of his last three fights. Bondar has one of the highest scoring ceilings on the slate and should be a staple in all contest types. The odds imply he has a 71% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in the first round.
Gordon is coming off the first win of his UFC career, which was also the first time he’s been to a decision in his last 10 fights. He scored 80 DraftKings in the grappling-heavy victory as he struggled with his takedown accuracy going just 2 for 12 on his attempts. While the sheer number of attempts combined with his 77% career finishing rate presents some theoretical upside, this looks like an incredibly tough matchup for him to succeed in and he’s likely a hail mary submission or bust kind of play. With that said, he also provides a massive leverage opportunity in tournaments as he’ll go incredibly low owned, while Bondar will be one of the most popular fighters on the slate. The odds imply he has a 29% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Phil Rowe
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Rowe is coming off his first UFC win, where he landed a second round TKO against a debuting Orion Cosce. Rowe was controlled by Cosce on the fence and the ground for essentially the entire first round as well as the early parts of round two. But, when Rowe was finally able to get back in open space he turned it on Cosce, upping his striking output and landing several heavy knees and punches. Cosce was briefly able to return the fight to the clinch along the fence, but Rowe eventually escaped and landed a series of heavy knees in the clinch and then finished Cosce with punches. The fight ended with Cosce landing 2 of his 6 takedown attempts with over six and half minutes of control time, while Rowe led in significant strikes 46-22 and in total strikes 53-51. One thing to note, Rowe missed weight by 2.5 lb for that fight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
With that finish, Rowe has now won 8 of his last 9 fights since losing his first two pro fights in 2014 and 2015. All eight of his career wins have come early, with four KOs and four submissions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in his 2014 pro debut when he was knocked out two minutes into the first round. He’s never been submitted, but he has lost both of the decisions he’s been to. Four of his wins have come in round two, three have occurred in round one, and one ended in the opening seconds of round three.
In his second most recent fight, Rowe lost a decision to Gabe Green in his February 2021 UFC debut. Rowe had his left leg so badly chewed up that he could hardly even stand on it late in the fight. Green may have been able to get a finish if he had simply made Rowe stand up with a minute remaining in the third round, collapsing from a final leg strike. Instead, Green curiously decided to go to the ground with him. Green finished ahead in significant strikes 70-42 and in total strikes 128-48, while also notching a pair of knockdowns and two takedowns on two attempts, taking three minutes of control time. Rowe actually looked pretty decent in the first round, although at times he appeared to struggle with the pressure of Green, which seemed to negate Rowe’s massive height and reach advantages. Rowe showed decent striking and grappling, but looked very hittable and didn’t appear to check any kicks.
A year and a half prior to his debut, Rowe punched his ticket to the UFC when he landed a third round KO win on DWCS. Rowe got knocked down early in that 2019 DWCS match and looked to be in trouble, however, he was able to recover and really turned it on in the second round before finishing things just as the third round started.
One important thing to keep in mind is that Rowe’s pre-UFC wins came against much lower level competition. Here are the records of his first nine pro opponents beginning with his two early career losses: 1-0 (L), 0-0 (L), 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 4-5, and 7-1 (Leon Shahbazyan on DWCS).
At 6’3” with an 80” reach, Rowe has a background in basketball, not martial arts, and was a self-described terrible fighter when he first started MMA. However, after training with Jacare Souza, Mike Perry, and Rodolfo Vieira, Rowe appears to have made improvements to his game, as well as having a massive frame for the division.
Jason Witt
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Continuing his career long pattern of never losing two fights in a row, Witt bounced back from a 16 second R1 KO loss with a decision win over Bryan Barberena in his most recent fight. Witt was able to take Barberena down 8 times on 18 attempts and control him for just over five and half minutes. Barberena led in significant strikes 50-35 and in total strikes 114-56, but was unable to do much until the third round when we saw a chaotic finish with Barberena nearly finishing Witt late in the match. Earlier in the fight, it appeared that Witt was actually even able to briefly drop Barberena twice in the second round, but was only credited with one of those. He also wrapped up a guillotine choke but was unable to force a tap and eventually hung on to win the decision. After getting knocked out in the first round in two of his first three UFC fights, Witt’s chin held up better in that last fight.
With that win, Witt has now alternated wins and losses over his last five fights. Witt was violently knocked out just 16 seconds into his second most recent fight at the hands of Matthew Semelsberger. Witt foolishly started the fight by throwing multiple leg strikes instead of immediately shooting for a takedown and was quickly made to pay for it.
Prior to that KO loss, Witt landed a second round submission win over a terrible Cole Williams, who went 0-2 in the UFC with a pair of submission losses and missed weight by five pounds TWICE before being released. Eight seconds into the first round Witt grabbed a single-leg, pushed Williams up against the cage, converted it to a double, and then picked Williams up and slammed him. Once on the ground, he immediately took Williams’ back and easily controlled him for the duration of the round while advancing his position and laying heavy ground and pound. Witt also opened up a big cut on Williams from a slicing elbow with a minute left in the round. Witt didn’t immediately shoot for a takedown in the second round, and showed some level of patience before finding an opening 40 seconds in. He showcased his strength, picking up Williams and carrying him across the Octagon over to his corner before slamming him once again. With James Krause in his corner calmly directing the action, Witt was never in any danger in this match and submitted Williams two minutes into the second round.
Witt made his ultra short notice UFC debut in June 2020 against Takashi Sato, but it didn’t last long as Sato finished him quickly with a 48 second R1 KO. Before he joined the UFC, Witt had been on a four fight winning streak and had won 9 of his previous 10 fights. He won three straight decisions leading up to his UFC debut, and amazingly, seven of his most recent eight fights before joining the UFC made it to the third round with five going the distance. The one fight that ended prior to the third round over that stretch was a 2018 R2 KO loss.
In his 26 pro fights, he has three KO wins, eight submission victories, and seven wins by decision. While his last two submission wins have come in the later two rounds, the first six submission wins of his career all came in round one. All seven of his career losses have come early with five KOs and two submissions, with six of those coming in the first two rounds.
Overall, Witt is a one-dimensional grappler with a fragile chin, but he’s well coached with James Krause in his corner. He’s gone 10 for 22 on his takedown attempts since joining the UFC, while landing just 61 total significant strikes in those matches. He did show glimpses of a standup game in his last match, but he’s really only using his striking to set up takedowns.
Fight Prediction:
Rowe will have a massive 5” height advantage and a ridiculous 10” reach advantage. He’s also four years younger than the 35-year-old Witt.
Witt has won all seven of the decisions he’s been to in his career, while Rowe has lost both of the decisions he’s been a part of. That also means all of Witt’s losses have come early as have all of Rowe’s wins. We don’t see this fight bucking those trends as Witt’s path to victory is through a grappling heavy approach where he hunts for submissions as he grinds out his opponents on that mat. That naturally leads to him winning decisions when fights go the distance, but he’s an absolute liability on the feet and will generally get knocked out when fights remain standing. He’s also been submitted twice, but not since 2016, so it’s generally safe to say he’s going to get fights to the ground or get knocked out trying. Rowe trains with several high-level grapplers, but we saw him get controlled for over two-thirds of his last fight and almost six minutes in his previous UFC debut. He’s still pretty green when it comes to fighting and hasn’t figured out how to best utilize his length as we’ve seen him simply charge into the clinch. It will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made after fighting another opponent with a grappling-heavy game plan in his last fight. That was probably a good learning experience as he prepares for another grappler in Witt. We think Witt may have trouble submitting Rowe, which should leave Rowe with several opportunities to land a knockout even if he again gets controlled for the entire first round. While it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see Witt grind out another grappling-heavy decision, we pick Rowe to knock him out.
Our favorite bet here is “Rowe Wins by KO” at +195.
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DFS Implications:
Rowe is the type of fighter who generally contributes to high DFS scoring regardless of whether he wins or loses, as 9 of his 11 career fights have ended early and even in his last decision loss his opponent scored 105 DraftKings points. Rowe averages 4.97 SSL/min (6th most on the slate) and 4.54 SSA min (7th most on the slate). All eight of his career wins have come early, with seven of those ending in the first two rounds. He’s also been knocked out once in the first round himself and was nearly finished in his debut by leg strikes. With a healthy combination of striking and grappling along with a 100% finishing rate, Rowe makes for a solid play on both DFS sites. Now, he faces an opponent who’s been finished in all seven of his career losses, including first round knockouts in two of his four UFC fights. The odds imply Rowe has a 55% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
You always want to target Witt’s fights in DFS. In his two UFC wins, Witt scored 108 and 105 DraftKings points and in his two losses his opponents scored 126 and 133. His fights pretty much always end with either a finish or a grappling-heavy decision victory for Witt. He’s never lost a decision in his career, but he’s been finished in all seven of his losses. He makes for a slightly better play on DraftKings than FanDuel due to the potential to accrue a large amount of control time. He also has a massive takedown upside to keep him in play on both sites as he landed eight in his last match on 18 attempts and still scored 106 points on FanDuel in a decision. He’s unlikely to fill up the stat sheet the way he did in that match every time he wins a decision, but at his cheaper price tag he would likely serve as a solid value play with a win of any type. The odds imply Witt has a 45% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Jailton Almeida
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Almeida will be making his UFC debut on a nine fight winning streak following a second round submission win on DWCS in September 2021. All nine of those wins came in the first two rounds and now 14-2 as a pro, he’s only been to one decision in his career, which ended in a 2018 defeat. He has five wins by KO and nine by submission. Outside of his one decision loss, he was knocked out once in the first round of a 2017 match. The only time he’s been past the second round was in his 2018 decision loss as 11 of his 16 fights have ended in round one while four have ended in round two.
In his recent DWCS victory, Almeida went up against a 9-0 Sambo “Master.” Almeida shot for a violent takedown 10 seconds into the match, launching himself at his opponent like a cannonball. The two fighters ended up in a stalemate on the mat in an odd position, but as soon as they returned to their feet Almeida immediately looked to get the fight back to the mat and emphatically slammed his opponent back down. He looked close to locking up a rear-naked choke at that point but was unable to get his second hook in and his opponent escaped, momentarily taking top position on the mat. However, Almeida never stopped working off his back, briefly looking for a heel hook to escape the position and make a return to the feet. Almeida landed another takedown late in the round but ran out of time at that point. He caught a flying knee early in round two and used it to get the fight right back down to the ground. At that point he was able to work towards a rear-naked choke and end the fight less than two minutes into round two.
Almeida appears to come into every fight with the same game plan of quickly getting things to the mat as violently as possible while aggressively hunting for finishes. Four of his last five wins have come by submission and seven of his last nine wins have ended in round one. He’s a BJJ black belt and an absolute powerhouse, which definitely makes you wonder about his cardio. He lost the only fight he’s ever been in that lasted longer than seven minutes and there’s always a chance we could be looking at another Rodolfo Vieira type of fighter that completely sells out in the opening minutes, and fights with no regard to what will happen if he doesn’t get the finish. That’s pure speculation at this point, but it’s just something to keep in mind with such a shredded grappler who exerts so much energy early in fights. Almeida has competed anywhere from Middleweight to Heavyweight in the past, but his last five fights have all been at Light Heavyweight.
Danilo Marques
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off his first UFC loss, Marques was knocked out in the third round by Kennedy Nzechukwu in his last fight. Marques was able to control Kennedy’s back for the first half of the fight before Kennedy was finally able to start landing punches late in round two. He then finished things at the start of round three with a TKO stoppage along the fence, as a tired Marques simply shelled up. Marques finished the fight with 2 takedowns on 12 attempts and close to eight minutes of control time, while Kennedy led in significant strikes 31-10.
After not fighting for two and a half years from 2018 to 2020, the now 36-year-old Marques made his UFC debut in September 2020 against a winless Khadis Ibragimov, who went 0-4 in the UFC before being released following the loss to Marques. The slow paced snoozer saw just 35 combined significant strikes landed between the two fighters (19-16 in favor of Ibragimov) over 15 minutes of “action”. Marques relentlessly pursued takedowns, but was only able to land 4 of 16 attempts. He did finish the fight with over seven minutes of control time, continuously looking for submissions, but failing to ever get close to landing one.
Following the win in his debut, Marques took on a struggling Mike Rodriguez in his second most recent fight. Marques shot for his first takedown of the match just eight seconds into the fight and while Rodriguez was too slow to stop it, he did get back to his feet relatively quickly—but not for very long. Rodriguez ended up spending the entire round in the clinch or on the mat but did finally manage to escape in the final 30 seconds. Then, he was able to keep the fight standing for the first minute in round two, before Marques got it back to the ground 90 seconds in as Rodriguez appeared to be fatiguing. Marques spent the rest of the fight on top of Rodriguez before ending the fight via rear-naked choke with just eight seconds remaining in the second round. He finished ahead 29-16 in significant strikes and 55-34 in total strikes, while going 4 for 7 on takedowns with over seven and a half minutes of control time. He also ended with two official submission attempts.
Marques is a one-dimensional grappler with no striking skills. He has now gone 10 for 35 on takedowns across his first three UFC fights while landing just 55 combined significant strikes. Prior to joining the UFC, he did win his previous two fights, but he had exclusively fought questionable competition. Here are the records of his opponents in his last four wins before joining the UFC, beginning with the most recent: 5-4-1, 0-16, 5-9, and 0-3. His last fight before joining the UFC also took place at 185 lb as opposed to 205 lb where he normally competes.
Now 11-3 as a pro, 9 of his 11 career victories have come early, including five by submission. He also has four KO wins, but all four of those came in his first six fights against highly suspect opponents with records of 0-1, 0-2, 2-4, and 0-8. Only one of those opponents ever even fought again and that was the 0-8 punching bag who’s been knocked out in R1 seven times in eight fights. In his three losses, Marques has been knocked out twice and lost one decision, but he’s never been submitted.
Fight Prediction:
Marques will have a 3” height advantage, but Almeida will have a 2” reach advantage.
After facing three straight strikers in his first three UFC fights, Marques will now square off against another grappler for the first time in the UFC. We’ve yet to see him have to defend a takedown in his three UFC fights, but now he’ll be fighting an explosive grappler and it shouldn’t take long to see the first. Almeida is making his UFC debut and has never won a fight that lasted longer than seven minutes, which would generally be a red flag. However, Marques is a subpar fighter with cardio concerns, so even if he were able to survive the initial blitz of Almeida, it’s unclear if he would have the energy to take advantage of the situation if Almeida does gas out. We don’t really know what Marques’s defensive grappling will look like, but we’d be surprised if it looks great. We expect Almeida to dominate him and get a finish in the first round and half, but there is always a chance that Almeida gasses out if he can’t get the quick finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -115.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Almeida looks absolutely explosive and all 14 of his career wins have ended in seven minutes or less. He’s making his UFC debut following a second round submission win on DWCS, and while we often see debuting fighters struggle, he’s going against a pretty terrible opponent in Danilo Marques. There’s always the chance that Almeida fails to land an early finish and then gasses out, but we still like his chances to land a finish in the first round and a half and put up a big score. It’s hard to see this match going the distance, which makes it a great fight to target in DFS. Make note that Almeida will be very popular as he leads the slate with the highest chances to land a finish so you’ll want to find ways to get unique in tournaments elsewhere. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 54% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Marques is a one-dimensional grappler who offers little to nothing on the feet. After facing three straight strikers so far in the UFC, he’ll now go against his first grappling test in explosive newcomer Jailton Almeida. This looks like a brutally tough matchup for Marques, but with Almeida making his UFC debut and having never won a fight that lasted longer than seven minutes, there’s lots of uncertainty regarding how he’ll look if he can’t land a quick finish. That’s about the only reason for optimism in Marques. He’ll also go low owned in tournaments and makes for an interesting leverage play off of the extremely popular favorite in Almeida. While Marques scored 121 DraftKings points in his lone early win in the UFC, that came against a one-dimensional striker whereas this will be a completely different challenge. This fight has shades of Rodolfo Vieira vs. Fluffy Hernandez colored all over it, just keep in mind that Marques is rather terrible and we fully expect him to get finished quickly. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #10
Alexis Davis
14th UFC Fight (7-6)Desperate for a win, Davis has lost four of her last five fights, with her last seven matches ending in decisions. In fairness, she’s been going against a pretty high level of competition, with her last five opponents being Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia, Viviane Araujo, Sabina Mazo, and Pannie Kianzad.
Davis started her pro career off up at 145 lb before dropping down to 135 lb in 2009, where she stayed until 2017 when she curiously decided to drop down to 125 lb following a decision win. Davis won her first fight down at 125 lb, but then lost her next three before taking 19 months off. She resurrected her flatlined career at 36 years old by moving back up to 135 lb and winning a smothering decision over Sabina Mazo in February 2021.
In that fight, Davis dominated the first round on the ground, catching a Mazo kick just over a minute in and then using a trip to drop Mazo to the mat. The second round stayed mostly on the feet, with Davis constantly attacking Mazo’s lead leg. Davis didn’t even attempt a takedown in the round until 30 seconds before it ended, when she got Mazo back to the ground as she caught another kick and drove through it, finishing the round in top position. Mazo foolishly continued to put kicks out there like invitations to be taken down, showing a low fight IQ and a complete inability to make in-fight adjustments. Davis took full advantage as she caught another kick just 20 seconds into the third round and again used a trip to put Mazo on her back. Davis spent the rest of the round controlling Mazo on the ground as she cruised to a unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26). It’s notable that all three of Davis’ takedowns began with catching a kick, and she didn’t shoot for any other attempts. Mazo actually led in significant strikes 64-49, but Davis led in total strikes 128-71, while going 3 for 3 on takedowns and notching just shy of nine minutes of control time.
Following that win, Davis took on Pannie Kianzad and lost a close/questionable decision. Davis outland Kianzad 132-124 in significant strikes and 147-124 in total strikes, while also landing her only takedown attempt. Despite Davis leading in striking in two of the three rounds and landing the only takedown in the fight, two of the judges curiously ruled it 30-27 in favor of Kianzad.
Prior to the win, Davis lost a trio of decisions against tough competition in Viviane Araujo, Jennifer Maia and Katlyn Chookagian. Strangely, Davis actually finished ahead in significant strikes in her last five losses, while finishing behind in three of her last four wins.
Davis’ second most recent win came all the way back in 2017 in a grappling-heavy controversial split-decision, with over 12 minutes of combined control time (5:50 for Davis). Davis was outlanded in total strikes 191-132 and significant strikes 49-23. She also lost the takedown battle 4-1 and lost in control time 6:33-5:50, yet somehow won a split-decision. The crowd did not agree with the decision and if you saw the massive swelling on Davis’ head it would be hard to argue she won anything.
A BJJ black belt, Davis has generally prefered to mix things up in the clinch than out in open space, however, she’s coming off a high-volume striking battle against Kianzad proving that isn’t always the case. That was just the second time Davis has ever landed more than 72 significant strikes or absorbed more than 67 in her last 15 fights.
Now 20-11 as a pro, Davis has two wins by KO, eight by submission, and 10 decisions. She’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has seven decision defeats. The first of those knockout losses was in the third round of her first pro fight back in 2007. The second was from a doctor stoppage in 2009 with 37 seconds to go in the fight, and the third was against Ronda Rousey in 2014.
Two of her six UFC losses have come early, with a 16 second 2014 R1 KO loss against Ronda Rousey for the Bantamweight title and a 2016 R2 submission loss to Sara McMann. Six of her seven UFC wins have ended in decisions with the one exception being a 2015 R2 armbar against Sarah Kaufman, who is no longer in the UFC and has been submitted in three of her five career losses. One of Davis’ two career knockouts notably came against a young Amanda Nunes back in the second round of a 2011 match. Her only other KO victory came in her second pro fight back in 2007. Five of her submission wins have come by rear-naked choke with the other three ending in armbars. She has four first round submissions, and two in both rounds two and three, but four of her last five submissions have come in the later rounds.
Julija Stoliarenko
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Likely fighting for her job, Stoliarenko is now 0-3 in the UFC and in her second stint with the organization. She’s coming off a third round submission loss to Julia Avila, which was the first time Stoliarenko has ever been submitted and just the second time Avila has ever submitted anybody. It’s worth pointing out that the judges were split on who was winning the fight prior to the late third round finish, with one judge giving both rounds to Stoliarenko, another giving both rounds to Avila and the third having it one a piece. How anyone could say Stoliarenko won both of the first two rounds is beyond us, but we stopped trying to make sense of the judging a long time ago. In fairness, the final stats were close, with Avila ahead in significant strikes 48-40, takedowns even at 1-1 and control time essentially identical at 3:31-3:32. Avila did lead in total strikes 107-60 and seemed to be the one doing far more damage.
An armbar specialist, eight of Stoliarenko nine career wins have come by armbar, with all of those ending in round one. Her only other win was a 5-round split decision for the Invicta Bantamweight belt in 2020 just before rejoining the UFC. She’s been finished in three of her five career losses, with two KOs and one submission. However, both of those KOs came very early in her pro career in her third and fourth pro fights.
A BJJ brown belt, Stoliarenko originally made her way into the UFC through the Ultimate FIghter in 2018, but after losing a decision in her debut against a highly questionable Leah Letson, Stoliarenko was released and forced to fight elsewhere. After winning her next five fights, including four straight R1 armbars followed by a 5-round bloodbath split-decision win in Invicta, Stoliarenko was invited back into the UFC, where she lost a smothering decision to Yana Kunitskaya in her first fight back. Kunitskaya amassed over 13 minutes of control time in the 15 minute fight as she pressed Stoliarenko up against the cage for essentially the entire fight. Stoliarenko started to look tired after the first round as Kunitskaya wore her out in the clinch as Stoliarenko did everything she could to get the fight to the ground. Kunitskaya finished the fight way ahead 43-6 in significant strikes and 209-30 in total strikes.
Fight Prediction:
Stoliarenko will have a 1” height advantage, but Davis will have a 2” reach advantage. Stoliarenko is nine years younger than the 37-year-old Davis.
Both of these ladies are desperate for a win here and we expect to see them both leave it all out there. Stoliarenko has only one career win that didn’t come by round one armbar, but she has shown a willingness to brawl. Considering Davis is a BJJ black belt who’s only been submitted once in 31 pro fights, it seems unlikely Stoliarenko would be able to get a submission, but it still can’t be completely ruled out. With that said, we expect to see this fight go the distance and like Davis’ chances to win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Davis Wins by Decision” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Davis has generally shown a decent DFS scoring floor when she wins, but hasn’t shown much of a ceiling lately. Her last six decision wins were good for DraftKings totals of 96, 82, 73, 82, 64, and 93. So barring a dominating grappling performance, she’ll need a finish here to return value at her high price tag. With that in mind, she’s now fought to seven straight decisions and is 37 years old. Her last finish was a second round submission back in 2015, which still scored just 91 DraftKings points, showing that even with a finish she won’t necessarily return value. The two things Davis has going for her in DFS are that she’ll be incredibly low-owned and is getting a step down in competition. That’s enough for us to go over the field on her in tournaments, but she’s undoubtedly a super gross play and more likely than not will fail to score well. One last thing to note, in Stoliarenko’s recent two losses, her opponents put up DraftKings scores of 97 and 109, which is also somewhat encouraging for Davis’ chances. The odds imply Davis has a 65% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Stoliarenko has historically been a R1 submission or bust fighter, with eight of her nine career wins coming by armbar in the first round. Now she’s going against a BJJ black belt, who has only been submitted once in 31 pro fights (in 2016), which isn’t encouraging for Stoliarenko’s chances to land a quick submission. Stoliarenko is just 1-5-2 in fights that have lasted longer than five minutes, with the one victory coming in a split-decision. Stoliarenko has several wins in under 60 seconds, all outside of the UFC, which is notable on DraftKings with the quick win bonus, so she does have a high theoretical ceiling, it’s just unlikely she hits it. She will be incredibly low owned, so if she can somehow pull off a quick submission then she offers tournament winning upside. The odds imply she has a 35% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Marc-Andre Barriault
7th UFC Fight (2-3, NC)After losing his first three UFC fights in 2019, Barriault bounced back with a 2020 R2 KO win against suspect fighter Oskar Piechota, who was coming off three straight early losses. However, the result was overturned to a No Contest when Barriault tested positive for a banned substance, receiving a nine month suspension for his offense. He then returned in March 2021 and took on Abu Azaitar who was coming off a nearly three year layoff and gassed hard in the back half of the fight. Barriault was able to capitalize on that and land 10,000 (yes, 10,000) ground strikes in the third round. He achieved this number with the help of Azaitar bending over to pick up his mouthpiece in the middle of the action, leading him to end up on his back. He was also helped by the ref refusing to stop the fight until just a few seconds remained in the final round. Prior to that, it had been a close fight with each fighter winning a round. Barriault finished ahead in significant strikes 141-108 and in total strikes 190-142, while also landing a knockdown in the third. Neither fighter landed a takedown, Barriault with one attempt and Azaitar with three. Barriault also led in control time 6:00-2:03. While it ended up being a dominant performance from Barriault, it was very much dependent on Azaitar gassing out.
Barriault followed up that R3 TKO with a decision win over Dalcha Lungiambula in his most recent fight as he outlanded his way to victory against a power puncher who hasn’t looked all that great since dropping down to 185 lb for his last two fights. Barriault was surprisingly willing to stand and trade with Lungiambula and outlanded his way to a decision victory as he led in significant strikes 118-85 and in total strikes 128-87. Lungiambula went 2 for 5 on his takedown attempts while Barriault didn’t attempt any takedowns.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Barriault has nine wins by KO and four by decision. He’s never been finished and all four of his losses have ended in decisions. In his six UFC fights, Barriault has gone 2 for 8 on his takedown attempts, but has landed just one in his last four fights and none in his last two. He appears content in brawling with his opponents at this stage, relying on his cardio and durability to secure victories. Only one of his last 11 fights ended in the first round and five of his six UFC fights have made it to round three, with four going the distance. He hasn’t faced the toughest competition so it will be interesting to see how he holds up against more well rounded strikers.
Chidi Njokuani
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a R3 TKO win on DWCS, Njokuani has far more experience than your typical fighter coming off the show. He enters the UFC with a 20-7 pro record, but who he’s faced is what makes it impressive. He has wins over half a dozen fighters with UFC experience including Max Griffin, Alan Jouban, and Andre Fialho. The majority of his losses were also against fighters who have competed in the UFC. His brother Anthony also previously fought in the UFC, so none of this is completely new to him.
He absorbed multiple groin strikes in the first round of his recent DWCS win, but was able to overcome them and still get the finish. After a somewhat slow start to a fight involving a lengthy feeling out process that included tons of feints, Njokuani took over in round two and dominated the fight from that point on, reversing an early takedown and spending the remainder of the round in top position. He crumpled him to the mat early in round three and found himself right back in top position as he closed out the fight with ground and pound.
Despite being a BJJ black belt, Njokuani's biggest weakness is his grappling and we’ve seen him struggle with being controlled both on the fence and on the mat. That’s how his last three losses occurred, with a 2019 smothering decision loss, a 2018 R1 submission loss, and a 2017 R1 ground and pound TKO loss. He’s won his other 11 most recent fights and overall he has 12 wins by KO, one by submission, and seven by decision. Six of his seven pro losses have come early, with three KOs and three submissions. His only decision loss came in his third most recent fight, when he last competed for Bellator. That marked the end of a four year stint with Bellator, where he went 5-3 while competing against a series of really tough opponents. He then took a fight in the LFA that he won with a R2 TKO before going on DWCS.
Njokuani fought at 170 lb earlier in his career, but has been at 185 lb since 2017, going 3-2 since making the switch. In addition to his 20-7 pro MMA record, Njokuani went 12-1 as a kickboxer. It’s not surprising that striking is his strong suit as he’s incredibly dangerous out in open space or when he’s in control of the grappling exchanges. The only weaknesses in his game appear to be his takedown defense and defensive grappling off his back.
Fight Prediction:
Njokuani will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
We expect this to play out as a striking battle, although Barriault will likely find the most success if he can put Njokuani on his back and beat him up with ground and pound. Njokuani is a really solid striker who appears much quicker than Barriault and throws far more kicks. When you combine that with Njokuani’s 6” reach advantage, Barriault may have trouble closing the distance. We’ve seen Njokuani get controlled along the cage and on his back for periods of time and it would make sense for Barriault to try and make this fight ugly in the clinch as opposed to taking part in a kickboxing match. With that said, he’ll also need to be careful to avoid the knees of Njokuani outside of the clinch. For Njokuani, it would also make sense for him to attack the lead leg of Barriault to compromise his movement at which point Njokuani should be able to pick him apart from the outside. Neither one of these two fighters are a threat to end fights with a submission, and while Barriault has never been knocked out, Njokuani has just one KO/TKO loss in the last 10 years. More than likely we’ll see this fight go the distance in a close back and forth striking battle and we like Njokuani’s chances to get the win as long as he can stay off his back.
Our favorite bet here is “Njokuani WIns by KO or Decision” at +135.
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DFS Implications:
Barriault is essentially a one-dimensional striker which makes it tougher for him to score well in decisions as he’s only landed two takedowns in six UFC fights. Just look at his last fight where he landed an impressive 118 significant strikes but still scored just 80 DraftKings points in the decision win. While Barriault exploded for 132 DraftKings points in his second most recent fight, it looked like the ref had definitely played him in DFS as he allowed him to accrue a ridiculous number of ground strikes for several minutes in the third round before growing tired of the beating and stopping the fight with just four seconds left. It’s not inconceivable that he could put on another dominant ground and pound performance as Njokuani struggles off his back, but Barriault rarely shoots for any takedowns and has just a 25% takedown accuracy when he does. It’s more likely that we see this play out as a striking battle on the feet, where Njokuani is the most comfortable. It’s less likely that Barriault finds the finish he needs to put up a useful score. The odds imply he has a 54% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Njokuani is a patient but violent striker, who despite being a BJJ black belt doesn't offer almost anything when it comes to grappling. Sure he can lay down heavy ground and pound from top position, but he doesn’t offer anything off his back and isn’t a submission threat. That leaves him reliant on landing finishes to score well as he now faces a durable opponent who’s never been finished in his career. While Njokuani will be making his UFC debut, he’s fought a ton of current and former UFC fighters in the past and is far more seasoned than your typical debuting fighter. With that said, you still never know how guys will respond to their first trip inside the Octagon, which adds a little more uncertainty to this fight. Nevertheless, Njokuani is a solid striker and if he can stay off his back he’s got a good shot to win this fight. However, it’s more likely to go the distance than end early and Njokuani still needs a finish to put up a useful DFS score. The odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Hakeem Dawodu
8th UFC Fight (5-2)After losing a decision in one of the toughest matchups you could ask for against the undefeated Movsar Evloev, Dawodu is looking to bounce back from just the second loss of his pro career. After getting taken down only 4 times on 27 attempts in his first six UFC fights, Dawodu was grounded 9 times on 13 attempts by Evloev. After essentially getting controlled on the mat for the entire first two rounds, Dawodu was finally able to remain on his feet for the majority of the third round and appeared to have Evloev hurt at one point. However, Evloev was able to take him down to close out the final minute of the fight and secure the decision win. While Dawodu’s prior 85% takedown defense failed him in that fight, he did a pretty good job overall, constantly working to return to his feet while still fighting off the submission attempts of Evloev. Even after getting taken down nine times in that match, Dawodu still has a 67% career takedown defense.
Prior to suffering the first decision loss of his career, Dawodu had been on a five fight winning streak after suffering his first career loss back in his 2018 UFC debut when he was submitted with a guillotine choke just 39 seconds into the first round. Since then, five of his six fights have gone the distance, including three split-decisions in his last three decision wins. His only finish in the UFC was a 2019 R3 head kick KO against a fighter making his first and only appearance with the organization. You have to go all the way back to 2016 to find Dawodu’s second most recent early win, which is somewhat surprising considering how solid of a striker he is. Of his last 12 fights, the only one to end in the first round was the loss in his UFC debut.
Now 12-2-1 as a pro, Dawodu does have seven KO victories on his record to go with five decision wins, but six of those knockouts occurred in his first seven pro matches. With that said, he’s challenged himself from day one and amazingly has never faced an opponent with a losing record or less than three pro fights in his entire career. His opponents entered his fights with records of 5-3, 3-0, 4-0, 9-5, 4-0, 7-0, 7-0-1, 29-14, 11-2, 15-4, 8-3, 8-1, 16-3, 19-4-1, and 14-0. His record is about as padded as a concrete floor unlike most of the guys we see. Five of his seven KO wins occurred in the later rounds with three occuring in round two and two in round three.
Primarily a Muay Thai fighter, Dawodu is a crisp, powerful striker that doesn’t really offer anything in terms of grappling. He’s only attempted two takedowns in seven UFC fights and landed neither of them. We’ve yet to see him get outclassed on the feet in his career and both of his losses were due to grappling.
Michael Trizano
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off a close/questionable low-volume decision win over Ludovit Klein, Trizano is extremely fortunate to be 3-1 in the UFC with his two previous wins ending in split decisions. It appeared Klein had done enough to win the fight as he led in striking in each of the first two rounds, in addition to landing four takedowns with three and a half minutes of controle time contrasting that of Trizano who didn’t attempt any. You could certainly argue that Klein didn’t do much with his takedowns, but the fact that he also narrowly led in striking makes it harder to award Trizano either of the first two rounds. Maybe the judges were enamored by the dead beaver on Trizano’s head and forgot to pay attention to the actual fight. Unsurprisingly, the always reliable Adalaide Byrd and Junichiro Kamijo were two of the judges. You can never be sure if either of them are even paying attention to what’s going on. Regardless, the point remains that all three of Trizano’s UFC wins have come down to close decisions.
Prior to that win, Trizano hadn’t fought in almost two years after battling a series of injuries, including two knee injuries and an ankle injury that forced him out of a scheduled fight against Rafael Alves back in February 2020. Trizano got his shot in the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter, which he ended up winning in a low-volume split-decision. He finished ahead just 42-29 in significant strikes and 86-61 in total strikes in that fight. While he didn’t attempt any takedowns, he was able to stuff 5 of his opponent’s six attempts.
He followed that up with another low-volume split decision win, this time over Luis Pena. Trizano led in significant strikes 51-23. Both fighters landed one takedown, Trizano on two attempts and Pena on nine. Following the fight, Trizano was asked if he would stay at 155 lb or drop down to 145 lb. Trizano responded that he would probably stay at 155 lb, stating there was no weight cut and implying that he liked not having to do any unnecessary work.
Despite what he said following the win over Pena, after winning his first two UFC fights up at 155 lb, Trizano dropped down to 145 lb for his third UFC fight and proceeded to get submitted by Grant Dawson in the second round. For the record, Trizano has gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his pro career, touting records of 5-1 at 145 lb, 3-0 at 155 lb, and 1-0 at 150 lb.
With a background in kickboxing, Trizano trains out of Tiger Schulmann in New York and is a teammate of Julio Arce, who lost a decision to Hakeem Dawodu back in 2019. In a recent interview, Trizano discussed how he needs a finish badly, so it will be interesting to see if he forces the action in this next fight.
Fight Prediction:
Trizano will have a 3” height advantage, but Dawodu will have a 2” reach advantage.
While Dawodu’s one weakness has been his grappling, Trizano has failed to attempt any takedowns in three of his four UFC fights, going just 1 for 2 on his attempts in the other. Both of these guys have kickboxing backgrounds and we expect to see this play out primarily on the feet. With that said, there’s a decent chance Trizano will look to change levels after feeling Dawodu’s power but we don’t see him finding much, if any, grappling success. We see Dawodu winning the striking battle, and while he has a chance to land a KO, neither of these two have ever been knocked out. Seeing the match end in a decision is far more likely. Both of these fighters have consistently fought to close decisions, with two of Trizano’s last three decisions being split and three of Dawodu’s last four ending the same. While you never know what the judges will see, it would make sense to see this end in a split-decision if history is any indicator.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split-Decision” at +400.
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DFS Implications:
Dawodu has proven he can’t score well without a finish, with DraftKings totals of 58, 69, 71, and 62 in his four UFC decision wins. Even in his lone early win, which ended in a third round KO, he still scored just 91 DraftKings points. He’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and relies entirely on striking and finishes to score well. While he is a really solid kickboxer, he only has one finish in his last eight fights dating back to 2016. We love Dawodu’s chances to win this fight, but he’ll likely need a finish in the first two rounds to be useful in tournaments. With that said, his reliable floor keeps him in the low-risk discussion and there’s certainly a chance he gets an early knockout, while carrying relatively low ownership. We can’t completely disregard him in tournaments, but it’s tough to get excited about a favorite who’s a one-dimensional striker that’s failed to top 91 DraftKings points in seven UFC fights. Let’s not forget, he’s going against an opponent who’s never been knocked out. The odds imply Dawodu has a 60% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Trizano is a gross DFS play with DraftKings scores of 59, 65, and 66 in his three UFC wins, which all ended in close decisions. Now he faces a 14-2 opponent who’s never been knocked out and looks to be a superior striker. Even at his cheaper price tag, it’s hard to see him returning value without a finish, something we don’t see him achieving. It’s been almost five years since he ended a fight early, which was back in just his fourth pro fight before joining the UFC. We don’t have much if any interest in playing Trizano in any DFS format, but you could at least argue that he won’t carry much ownership. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Miles Johns
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off back-to-back round three knockout wins, seven of Johns’ 13 pro fights have ended early, though he’s never been in a fight that has ended in round one. His most recent victory came against Anderson dos Santos, who is now 1-3 in four UFC fights. Johns was able to tear up Dos Santos’ leg in the first round to the point that he was limping badly, requiring him to switch stances. From that point on it was a scene of Johns playing with his food as he worked towards a finish, which he achieved early in round three with a highlight reel walk off knockout. Johns finished ahead 80-32 in significant strikes, while stuffing all five of Dos Santos’ takedown attempts, attempting none of his own.
In his second most recent fight, Johns landed another walk off, round three KO against UFC newcomer Kevin Natividad, in what was a low-volume striking battle. Johns led in significant strikes 48-33 and in total strikes 56-38, but failed to land any of his seven takedown attempts. For the record, Natividad went on to get knocked out in 50 seconds in his next UFC fight and likely won’t last long in the organization.
Prior to those two KO wins, Johns hadn’t knocked anybody out in five years, going back to a 2016 R2 KO in his fourth pro fight. Five of his previous six wins had gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2018 R2 guillotine choke. However, one of those decision wins came against red hot UFC prospect Adrian Yanez in a 5-round split decision title fight under the LFA in 2018.
Now 12-1 as a pro, Johns has four wins by KO, two by submission, and six via decision. The only loss of his career came in his third most recent fight, which ended in a second round KO from a flying knee against Mario Bautista. In a low-volume fight, Bautista led in striking 18-13 before getting the finish early in R2. Neither fighter attempted a takedown in the match and we saw far more feinting than striking. After earning a UFC contract on DWCS in 2019 and despite his fight ending in a decision, Johns won a split-decision against Cole Smith in his 2019 UFC debut just prior to that R2 KO loss.
Johns has a wrestling background and actually turned down a wrestling scholarship to focus on MMA. Despite his wrestling experience, he has only one takedown on nine attempts in his four UFC fights. However, he did go 3 for 4 on takedowns in his DWCS fight just before joining the UFC. Lately, he’s been using his wrestling more defensively, as his opponents in the UFC have gone 1 for 12 on their takedown attempts against him. Johns’ elite 92% takedown defense also factored into his DWCS fight where his opponent went 0 for 1.
John Castaneda
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Almost exactly a year removed from his first UFC win with a knockout win over Eddie Wineland, Castaneda finished the struggling UFC veteran late in the first round. Castaneda patiently circled the outside of the Octagon and allowed Wineland to pursue him for most of the fight, before turning it on late with a flurry of strikes to force a stoppage with just 16 seconds remaining in the round. Castaneda was able to use his reach advantage to put up a solid striking total despite his somewhat cautious approach, as Wineland stayed in his face with pressure. The fight ended with Castaneda ahead in significant strikes 42-17, while Wineland landed the only takedown attempt in the match, but amassed only 12 seconds of control time with it as he never quite committed in going to the ground. Putting things into perspective, Wineland has now lost four of his last five fights and has been knocked out in the first round in two straight.
Prior to that win, Castaneda had lost three of his previous four fights, with all three of those losses going the distance. His most recent loss came in his short notice UFC debut against a tough opponent in Nathaniel Wood, who outlanded Castaneda 131-55 in significant strikes, while landing 1 of his 3 takedown attempts and stuffing Castaneda’s only attempt.
Castaneda won a decision on DWCS back in 2017, but it wasn’t enough to get him into the UFC. Following that win, he went 3-2 on the Central American regional scene, including two submission wins, before getting the call to join the UFC.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Castaneda has only been finished once in 23 pro fights, which came in a 2014 R1 KO in his 5th pro bout. His other four losses all ended in decisions, two of which were split. Of his 18 career wins, 13 have come early, with eight KOs and five submissions. While he’s lost the last three decisions he’s been to, he’s won the past 10 fights he’s fought that have ended early. Prior to joining the UFC, Castaneda landed a third round submission against Marcelo Rojo, who’s now in the UFC. Castaneda also has a 2016 R4 KO win over UFC fighter Gustavo Lopez.
Fight Prediction:
Johns will have a 1” height advantage, but Castaneda will have a 5” reach advantage.
Johns is a calculated striker with a rock-solid takedown defense. He’s not a guy that will land a high striking volume or many takedowns, a major contributing factor as to why he’s never had a fight end in the first round. He likes to patiently dismantle his opponents as opposed to fighting for an early finish. Castaneda is also somewhat of a patient striker who will use his sneaky long reach to try and control the distance,landing punches from afar. With that said, he won’t shy away from a striking battle and has a well rounded game with both his striking and grappling, similar to Johns. Overall, this actually looks like a pretty even matchup but Johns seems to put more power behind his strikes. Neither guy has ever been submitted and their grappling will likely cancel each other out, keeping this a striking battle. Each fighter has only been knocked out once in their respective careers and we expect this one to go the distance in a close back and forth affair. We’ll give the edge to Johns to win a decision, but this one should be closer than the odds suggest.
Our favorite bet here is “Johns Wins by Split-Decision” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
While half of Johns’ career wins have come early, including two straight walk-off third round KOs, his patient fighting style doesn’t really lend itself towards big DFS scores. He’s never been in a fight that ended in the first round, he’s landed just one takedown in four UFC fights, and averages just 4.03 SSL/min. His recent two finishes were only good for 87 and 81 DraftKings points, although he fared a little better on FanDuel with scores of 110 and 91. He only scored 64 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win. With his high price tag it’s highly unlikely he returns value without a finish, barring a surprise grappling explosion. Castaneda has notably only been finished once in his career, which occurred over seven years ago in a 2014 R1 KO. This doesn’t look like a favorable spot for Johns to land a finish, but he certainly has the ability to get it done. There’s no guarantee it will score enough to be useful, even if he does get the finish. Working in his favor for tournaments, he was just 19% owned the last time he fought, in a near identical situation priced at $8,900 on a 13-fight card. While we’re not overly optimistic that he puts up a big score here, his low ownership and history of finishes keeps him in play for tournaments. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in the first round.
Coming off a massive R1 KO over a clearly washed up Eddie Wineland, Castaneda scored 117 DraftKings points in his first UFC win. He looked good in the fight as he landed 42 significant strikes in less than a round of action. However, he’ll now face a much tougher opponent and it will be far more difficult to put on a repeat performance. No one has ever landed more than 33 significant strikes on Johns in a UFC fight as he also owns an elite 92% takedown defense, so we can’t rely on Castaneda to boost his DFS scores with grappling. That will likely leave him reliant on landing a finish to return value, even at his cheap price tag. Working in his favor, 13 of his 18 career wins have come early (72.2%) and Johns was knocked out in his third most recent fight, which is also his only career loss. While this fight is more likely than not to end in a decision, Castaneda certainly has the ability to get a finish and has a slight chance to serve as a value play with a decision win. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Julian Erosa
10th UFC Fight (4-5)In a 2-man race with Chris Curtis for the right to be crowned the “King of Short Notice Upsets”, Erosa landed a third round submission as a +155 underdog against Charles Jourdain in his last fight. Similarly, he landed another third round submission as a short notice replacement against Sean Woodson in June 2020 as a massive +350 underdog. Both of those wins took place in a 150 lb Catchweight bout due to taking them on short notice. Erosa generally fights down at 145 lb, where he’s gone just 1-4 in the UFC with a 2016 R2 KO loss, a 2019 decision loss, a 2019 R3 KO loss, a 2021 R1 KO win, and a 2021 R1 KO win. Four of his five UFC fights at 145 lb have ended in knockouts and his only UFC win at that weight class was against Nate Landwehr, who appeared to have a tough weight cut for that fight and was very slow to weigh in. Erosa also has two UFC fights up at 155 lb—his 2015 UFC debut that he won in a split-decision and then a 2018 R1 KO loss in his return to the UFC. Erosa made his way back into the organization with a R2 KO win over Jamall Emmers on DWCS in 2018 after getting released in 2016 and after going 1-1 in his first two fights.
His second stint with the UFC didn’t go well as he lost three straight fights in 2018 and 2019, although all of those were against quality competition in Devonte Smith, Grant Dawson, and Julio Arce. He was then released from the UFC for the second time in his career and forced to fight elsewhere. However, that didn’t last long and after landing a first round submission with CageSport MMA in 2020, Erosa got a rare third shot in the UFC when he accepted the fight against Sean Woodson on short notice and made the most of the opportunity. He’s now gone 3-1 in his third shot in the UFC and has won four of his last five fights, including his match outside of the UFC. His last six fights have all ended early, as have 12 of his last 14. He’s gone 2-2 in decisions since 2013 with those losses coming against Paddy Pimblett in 2016 in Cage Warriors, and against Grant Dawson in 2019.
Erosa’s most recent fight was a crazy back and forth brawl against Charles Jourdain where both guys had their moments, but Erosa ultimately sealed the victory with a third round brabo choke. Erosa finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 103-85, but Jourdain dropped him in the second round and then had the momentum going in his favor in the third round before Erosa took him down and forced a tap. Despite all of the crazy brawls Jourdain has been a part of, that was the first time he had ever been finished.
Now 26-9 as a pro, Erosa has 11 wins by KO, 12 by submission, and three by decision. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out five times and has lost four decisions. Erosa has faced one really tough opponent after the next over the last several years and this finally looks like a step-down in competition for him.
Steven Peterson
7th UFC Fight (3-3)After nearly a two year hiatus, Peterson won a grappling-heavy decision over Chase Hooper in June 2021. He was able to defend all of Hooper’s submission attempts while controlling him on the mat for extended periods of time. He finished ahead in control time 7:57-2:55, despite only landing one takedown on his only attempt. Meanwhile, Hooper finished 3 for 8 on his takedown attempts. Peterson also finished ahead in significant strikes 49-31 and in total strikes 102-98. Peterson notably missed weight by 2.5 lb for that fight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Peterson’s second most recent fight was all the way back in September 2019, where he landed his first and only early win in the UFC with a second round spinning backfist knockout against Martin Bravo, who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released. Prior to that, Peterson had lost two straight decisions, and it easily could have been four, as his only other UFC win came in a 2018 split decision.
Peterson made an appearance on DWCS in 2017, but after losing another decision he was forced to return to the LFA. He landed a second round knockout in his next fight and that was enough to get him the call up to the UFC. In his 2018 UFC debut, Peterson lost a decision to Brandon Davis, who’s currently 2-6 in the UFC. Davis outlanded Peterson 114-73 in significant strikes and 119-82 in total strikes, while Peterson landed just 1 of 10 takedown attempts, Davis failed to secure his lone attempt.
Peterson also attempted double digit takedown attempts in his DWCS fight, but landed just 2 of his 12 attempts. Since then, he’s landed 10 of 27 attempts in his six UFC fights, most of those attempts occurring in his first three UFC fights. He’s gone just 3 for 3 in his last three fights.
A BJJ brown belt, Peterson is now 19-9 as a pro, with 13 of his wins coming early, including five KOs and eight submissions. However, he only has one finish in the last 4+ years since joining the UFC and doesn’t appear to be a major threat to end fights early. Peterson’s most valuable attribute has been his durability as he’s only been finished in one of his nine pro losses, which came via a 2013 R1 KO. He fought mostly at 135 lb before joining the UFC, but then moved up to 145 lb in 2017, where he’s stayed since.
UPDATE: After missing weight by 2.5 lb for his last fight, Peterson again missed weight, this time by 3 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Erosa will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Erosa’s biggest liability has been his chin, but Peterson appears ill-equipped to capitalize on that. Peterson has just two wins by KO over his last 14 fights and just one in his six UFC matches, which came from a flukey spinning backfist. He’s generally looking to make fights ugly and grind his way to decisions with a combination of striking volume and grappling. Erosa is great at wrapping up brabo chokes, so Peterson will need to be careful in the grappling exchanges if he even wants to make it to a decision, although he’s actually never been submitted. We haven’t seen Erosa needing to defend any takedowns recently as none of his last four opponents have attempted, but he will use his jiu-jitsu to look for submissions off his back as well. Peterson has also struggled with his takedown accuracy, which sits at just 30% for his career. We don’t really see Peterson winning a striking battle, so getting this fight to the ground to grind out a decision win may be his only path to victory outside of another flukey spinning backfist KO. Erosa can finish this fight on the feet or the mat, although when you consider how durable Peterson has been throughout his career, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Erosa go to the judges for the first time in nearly three years and win a decision. While it’s tough to say exactly how and when he gets it done, we see Erosa winning this fight and think another late submission or a decision are the most likely ways he wins.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Erosa’s brawl-heavy fighting style lends itself well to DFS production as he averages 5.55 SSL/min and 5.90 SSA/min. With his last five fights ending early (3-2), Erosa has consistently been a guy whose fights you want to target. His last three wins have returned DraftKings scores of 101, 131, and 104. In his five UFC losses, his opponents have put up DraftKings totals of 105, 90, 107, 130, and 92. While he’s only been to two decisions in his nine UFC fights, he did score just 82 points in his lone UFC decision win, and when you factor in his high price tag it looks like he’ll need a finish to return value. Working against him in this matchup, Peterson has only been finished once in 28 pro fights, which occurred all the way back in 2013 via a R1 KO. However, Peterson also hasn’t faced the toughest competition nor many dangerous finishers. There’s plenty of reason to think Erosa can still get a finish here and he has the ability to get it done both on the feet or on the mat. The fact that Erosa has scored over 100 DraftKings points in three of his last four fights should drive his ownership up some, but it’s important to remember that he was the underdog in all of those wins and priced accordingly. The massive increase in his price tag could keep his ownership a little lower along with all of the other popular high priced plays. He won’t go low owned, but it shouldn’t get out of control, so he still makes for a good tournament play. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
In his three UFC wins, Peterson has scored 80, 100, and 96 DraftKings points, with two of those ending in decisions. Considering his dirt cheap price tag, he could still return value with a decision victory and his grappling-heavy fighting style presents some additional DFS upside, especially on DraftKings. While we don’t have much confidence that Peterson can win this fight, he gets a pace-up matchup against an opponent who’s been knocked out in four of his last five losses, so the upside is certainly there if he can pull off the upset. He’ll also be low owned and provides a tournament winning upside with a solid floor even in a decision victory. Just keep in mind that he’s a massive underdog for a reason and he only has two knockout wins in his last 14 fights. Having only fought once in the last two and a half years, he hasn’t been very active. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 14% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Tresean Gore
1st UFC Fight (0-0)This fight was originally scheduled as the finale of The Ultimate Fighter back in August, but Gore suffered a knee injury and was forced to withdraw. Gilbert Urbina, who had lost to Gore in the semi-finals, stepped in to fill the vacancy and proceeded to get submitted by Bryan Battle in the second round. Now, the original matchup gets rebooked.
Gore has just three pro fights on his record, not including his two wins on TUF which are counted as exhibition matches. After turning pro in 2018, Gore won a split-decision in his pro debut. He then had an opponent suffer a knee injury in the first round, which didn’t allow him to continue, giving Gore the official win by R1 TKO. Essentially, it was a technicality and it was unclear when the injury happened. Gore's third official pro fight occurred back in October 2020 and he won with a first round rear-naked choke, something he nearly locked up in his previous fight as well.
Following those three wins, Gore went on TUF in early 2021. He won a 2-round decision in his first fight on the show before securing a spot in the finals with his R2 KO win over Urbina. Then, Dana White announced he had suffered a knee injury in August, apparently Meniscus related, and would be out for six months before they would give him a shot in the UFC. So here we are six months later as Gore finally makes his UFC debut.
Gore is a solid striker with heavy hands and kicks. He’s also got some level of grappling ability as we’ve seen him look to end multiple fights with rear-naked chokes. His takedown defense has also been impressive and it will be interesting to see how quickly he transitions to the next level with so few pro fights on his record. It will also be interesting to see if there are any lasting effects from the recent knee injury he suffered.
Gore made his pro debut at 185 lb, but then fought his next two matches at 205 lb before dropping back down to 185 lb when he went on TUF, which is where he’ll stay.
Bryan Battle
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Looking to keep his momentum going after winning The Ultimate Fighter finale, Battle will now need to prove he wasn’t the winner by default after Gore withdrew due to injury and Battle won against a short notice replacement. Battle submitted Gilbert Urbina in the second round with a rear-naked choke, Battle’s third straight second round finish in official pro fights, not counting his two exhibition matches on TUF. It’s worth noting that he also won one of those bouts with a second round submission. In what was a back and forth fight, Battle looked to be in some trouble early on but was able to fight through adversity after the rocky start. Urbina was largely looking to grapple, as he went 2 for 6 on takedowns in an uptempo fight that only lasted a round and a half. Battle narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 46-45, while Urbina led in total strikes 63-54 and in takedowns 2-1.
Looking back to his previous fights on The Ultimate Fighter, Battle defeated Kemran Lachinov in a 2-round decision in his first fight on the show. For anyone unaware, the first stage of fights on TUF are two rounds, unless it’s a tie and then they fight a third round. Battle more than doubled Lachinov’s striking total and did a great job of stuffing about a dozen desperation takedown attempts. Later in the semifinals, Battle was able to submit Andre Petroski in the second round to lock up a spot in the finale.
Prior to going on TUF, Battle’s last five pro fights all ended in the first two rounds, with him winning the last four. After winning a decision in his 2019 pro debut, Battle was submitted with an armbar just 51 seconds into his second fight. He bounced back with a pair of submission wins of his own in the second and first rounds of his next two respective fights, before landing his only career KO win in the second round of a November 2020 match. In his last fight before going on TUF, he landed an early round two submission in a high-paced brawl.
Like most of these guys coming off of TUF, Battle hasn’t faced the most experienced pro competition as his opponents entered his fights with records of 6-1, 1-0, 3-5 (L), 2-1, 0-2, 2-1, and 0-0. He’s still very early in his career and we haven’t seen him be tested by any UFC level talent. He throws a lot of kicks and good knees out of the clinch, but he doesn’t have the most explosive hands. He’s generally looking to choke out his opponents after wearing them down, and if we include his two exhibition matches on TUF, five of his six career finishes have occurred in round two. He hasn’t been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes since his 2019 pro debut, so it’s tough to say how his cardio will look in the third round if this fight goes there.
Fight Prediction:
Battle will have a 1” height advantage and a 3.5” reach advantage.
Gore is the better striker in this matchup, but Battle is willing to brawl and make fights ugly. With that said, he hasn’t faced the toughest competition throughout his career and while he’s recently defeated several grapplers, he hasn’t had to face many dangerous strikers. We expect Gore to tear up Battle’s lead leg, trying to make this more of a calculated striking battle. Battle will likely be looking to turn it into more of a fast paced brawl. Similar to Battle, Gore hasn’t seen the third round since his 2018 pro debut, so we don’t really know how his cardio will look late in this fight, especially if Battle pushes the pace. With that said, Gore has given us no indication that he has any cardio issues in his albeit limited career. We expect Battle to push the pace, which increases the chances that this fight ends early, but Gore has notably never been finished and the only early loss of Battle’s career came via submission in his second pro fight. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Gore outland his way to a decision. With that said, we like the chances for this fight to end in the first two rounds, most likely with a Gore victory by KO.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Gore is a calculated striker who’s unlikely to put up a huge striking total, but this is set as a paceup matchup for him with Battle generally pushing the pace in his fights. While Gore occasionally mixes in a takedown, he’s unlikely to boost his DFS scoring much with grappling and is reliant on landing a finish to score well. Considering this will be his UFC debut, he’s coming off a knee injury with just three pro fights to his name, making this somewhat of a high variance spot with some additional uncertainty. That increases the range of likely outcomes and makes this a fight where you want to have decent exposure on both sides. With both fighters reasonably priced, there’s a good chance the winner ends up in winning lineups as long as this ends early as the odds suggest it will. Both Gore and Battle have both only been past the second round once in their respective careers and that was in each of their pro debuts. Gore should have the striking advantage along with his really solid takedown defense, so we like his chances to keep the fight standing and land a knockout. He’s not helpless on the mat and will often look to end fights with chokes in grappling exchanges. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in the first round.
Battle is a high-volume striker who’s won his last five pro fights in the first two rounds. Four of those wins have occurred in the second round, with three ending in submissions. That appears to be where he’s the most dangerous, which makes this a more challenging matchup for him as we’ve yet to see Gore get taken down in his brief career. Working in Battle’s favor, Gore is coming off a knee injury as he makes his UFC debut, while Battle has already won a fight inside of the Octagon. With that said, neither guy has a ton of experience, adding to the uncertainty of this fight's outcome. Remarkably, Battle submitted wrestler Andre Petroski in the second round on TUF, and Petroski is now 2-0 in the UFC, albeit against very poor competition. Battle will have the size advantage and likes to use his length to throw kicks up the middle, which could help him to control the distance in this match. However, Gore is the superior striker overall, making this a tough matchup for Battle to win. The odds imply Battle has a 42% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Brendan Allen
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Stepping in on just four day’s notice after Phil Hawes withdrew, Allen was recently knocked out by another short notice replacement in Chris Curtis just two months ago. That was Curtis’s second straight short notice knockout win, coming in his first two UFC fights quickly making him a folk legend. Allen appeared to underestimate Curtis as he came in expecting that he’d be able to do whatever he wanted in the fight. He was lulled into a striking battle in the second round and soon paid dearly for it as Curtis connected with a clean right cross that severely wobbled Allen. At that point, Allen tried to use the clinch to buy time to recover, but Curtis finished the job along the fence. Allen did attempt three takedowns, but despite slamming Curtis to the mat in the opening 30 seconds, Allen was unable to secure any of those attempts as Curtis immediately returned to his feet. That’s the second time Allen has been knocked out in the second round in his last four fights and both of those matchups were put together on short notice, the previous one coming against Sean Strickland.
It’s likely Allen’s overconfidence in his striking stemmed from his previous decision win against formerly undefeated power puncher Punahele Soriano in a fight that remained entirely on the feet. Allen’s fights have fallen into a weird cycle where he’ll finish an opponent on the mat, then appear to get bored with his grappling and look to take part in a striking battle, win a decision, and then get overconfident in his striking the next time around and get knocked out. We’ve seen that cycle play out twice over his last six fights and it seemed to reset itself after his second most recent KO loss. It will be interesting to see if he again returns to his grappling in this matchup. To illustrate what we’re talking about, Allen finished Tom Breese on the mat in the first round of a February 2020 fight. Then, he took on Kyle Daukaus and never attempted a single takedown, but won a decision. He then took on Sean Strickland, and again didn’t attempt a single takedown before getting KO’d in the second round. After getting knocked down a peg he reverted back to his grappling and submitted Karl Roberson in the first round of his next fight. Regaining his confidence, he then won a decision over Soriano and only attempted one failed takedown in the match. After winning that decision, he was then again knocked out in the second round of his last fight as he again failed to land a takedown. As you can see, it will be interesting to see if he comes in more focused on getting this fight to the ground to utilize his best asset: grappling.
A BJJ black belt, Allen has only required the judges in two of his last eight fights dating back to when he went on DWCS in 2019. All six of those finishes (4-2) occurred in the first two rounds. All four of those wins for Allen occurred on the mat, while both losses came on the feet. Clearly not the brightest guy, Allen continues to participate in striking battles despite his grappling being that skill that got him into the UFC. He’s 17-5 as a pro, with five wins by KO, nine by submission, and just three decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. In total, 77% of his pro fights have ended early and only one of those 17 finishes (14-3) came after the second round. Nine of his fights have ended in round one (9-0), and seven have ended in round two (4-3). The lone late finish was a 2018 round three submission win. Both of his decision losses came in 5-round LFA fights against current UFC fighters Eryk Anders and Anthony Hernandez. His lone submission loss was also against a UFC fighter, Trevin Giles, in what was just Allen’s third pro fight, back in 2016. Since losing to Hernandez in 2018, Allen has gone 9-2.
Sam Alvey
23rd UFC Fight (10-11-1)How is Sam Alvey still in the UFC? No seriously: how? Winless in his last seven fights, Alvey hasn’t won a match since 2018 when he won a split-decision over Gian Villante, who had lost 5 of his last 6 fights and is now retired. Since then Alvey’s gone 0-6-1, with three of those losses going the distance and three ending in the first two rounds. Interestingly, his last three fights, five of his last seven, have gone the distance and ended in split-decisions. Alvey had originally been scheduled to face Ian Heinisch here, but Heinisch dropped out and Hawes stepped in on December 26th. However, Hawes dropped out this Tuesday and Allen stepped in on just four day’s notice. Alvey had been a +300 underdog in the matchup against Hawes and remains a large underdog against Allen, despite him stepping in on short notice.
After fighting his first 13 UFC fights at 185 lb (8-5), Alvey moved up to 205 lb in 2018. However, after winning his first two fights at Light Heavyweight, he went 0-4-1 in his next five before dropping back down to 185 lb in 2021 where he’s since gone 0-2. Overall, Alvey is 8-7 in the UFC at Middleweight and 2-4-1 at Light Heavyweight. While he had planned to remain at 185 lb for this fight, it was moved up to Light Heavyweight when Allen accepted it on short notice. It’s worth noting that this is the first time Allen has ever competed at Light Heavyweight.
Alvey’s most recent loss ended in a split-decision against Wellington Turman, who was deducted not one, but two points in the third round for repeated eye pokes. After getting knocked out in the first round in his two previous fights, Turman’s chin held up against Alvey, although Alvey hardly did much to test it. Turman narrowly led in significant strikes in that fight 69-68, while Alvey led in total strikes 114-75. Turman also led in takedowns 2-0 and in control time 2:54-1:54. Alvey was furious the decision didn’t go his way, but he never actually did anything to try and set himself apart or even look for a finish, appearing content with leaving it up to the judges. His counter punching style isn’t a good look in close fights and the judges appear mixed on how to score it, which likely explains why five of the last seven fights have gone to split decisions.
Four of Alvey’s last five fights have gone the distance, with the one exception coming in his second most recent fight when he was choked unconscious by Julian Marquez in the second round. That was just the second time Alvey had been submitted in his 50 pro fights. Despite his recent struggles, Alvey has historically been a tough guy to finish and he’s only been knocked out three times. He now holds a career record of 33-16-1, with 19 wins by KO, three by submission, and 11 decisions. He’s lost 11 decisions along with his three defeats by KO and two by submission.
In his last 14 fights, Alvey has just one early win, which came against a terrible Marcin Prachnio in 2018. For context, Prachnio was knocked out in the first round of his first three UFC fights. Alvey does have six finishes in the UFC, but five of those came in his first eight UFC fights from 2014 to 2016. Five of his six early wins in the UFC came in the first round, with the other occuring in the second. Five of those finishes were by KO, while the sixth was by guillotine choke. After showing some finishing ability early in his UFC career, 10 of his last 14 fights have gone to the judges.
Alvey is a BJJ brown belt and has a solid 81% takedown defense, which could play a factor in this fight if Allen looks to return to his grappling. However, while Alvey does a good job overall of defending takedowns, he’s been grounded at least once by three of his last four opponents.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’2” with a 75” reach, but Allen is nine years younger than 35-year-old Alvey.
This has to be the worst opponent Allen has faced since joining the UFC, so accepting the fight on short notice will have to play a major factor if Alvey wants to have any shot at winning. Allen theoretically should be able to win this fight on the feet as long as he doesn't get clipped with a clean counterpunch from Alvey, but it would still be wise for him to get the fight to the ground where he should really have an advantage. With that said, Alvey has a solid 81% takedown defense and is rarely controlled for long when he does get taken down. Therefore, this isn’t an ideal matchup for Allen to dominate him on the mat, but he’d be foolish to not test Alvey on the ground. If Allen is unable to work towards a submission, this fight will likely go the distance, with Allen outlanding his way to victory. The wildcard will be what Allen’s conditioning looks like after taking this fight on just four day’s notice, which certainly adds an element of the unknown to this matchup.
Our favorite bet here is “Allen Wins by Submission” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
This is the rare instance where we have a favorite drop out and nothing really changes. Hawes was a -400 favorite priced at $9,300 on DraftKings and was seamlessly replaced by Allen who is also priced at $9,300 as a large favorite.
Despite taking the fight on just four days notice, Allen is the second most expensive fighter on the slate. After burning the field just two months ago when he got knocked out as the most expensive fighter on the slate, we’ll likely see his ownership remain reasonable, especially as he goes against a durable UFC veteran. That makes him an interesting tournament play despite this not being an ideal matchup to get a finish. Without much time for preparation, there’s certainly a reason to question what his cardio will look like if the fight makes it to the back half and this likely lowers his scoring potential if he doesn’t get a finish. He totaled just 68 DraftKings points in his last decision win and 94 points in first UFC decision win, which was bolstered by four reversals, a knockdown, and close to six minutes of control time. It seems fair to say that Allen will need a finish here to return value and Alvey has notably only been knocked out three times and submitted twice in his 50 pro fights. The odds imply Allen has a 78% chance to win, a 47% chance to get a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in the first round.
Similarly, Alvey needs a finish to score well in DFS as he scored 62, 48, 50, and 57 DraftKings points in his last four decision wins. Even more concerning for his chances is that he ‘s gone 0-6-1 in his last seven fights and has just one early win in his last 14 matches. The only things Alvey has going for him are that Allen took this fight on short notice at 205 lb, where Allen has never competed before, he has been knocked out in two of his last four fights, and Alvey has a solid 81% takedown defense to fend off the grappling of Allen. If Alvey’s takedown defense holds up, there’s always a chance that he can clip Allen with a clean counterpunch, especially if Allen begins to fade late in the fight due to a lack of conditioning, which we often see with guys filling in on short notice. While that’s reason enough to have some exposure to Alvey in tournaments, the UFC should have cut him like overgrown grass a long time ago, and we have very little confidence in him. The odds imply he has a 22% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #3
Shavkat Rakhmonov
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Extending his undefeated record to 14-0 with a round two submission win over Michel Prazeres, Rakhmonov handed Prazeres his first early loss in what was Prazeres’ 30th pro fight. It is worth noting that Prazeres was 39 years old and coming off a two and a half year layoff due to a PED suspension and has since been suspended for another four years for yet another PED suspension. It must’ve been a supplement that’s side effect is ending careers, considering he’s already 40 years old. With all that said, Prazeres is an absolute tank and Rakhmonov was able to comfortably dismantle him without ever being in any danger. Rakhmonov took Prazeres down two minutes into the first round and controlled him on the mat before Prazeres was able to return to his feet as Rakhmonov postured up to land ground and pound. The beginning of the end came a minute into round two as Rakhmonov connected with a spinning wheel kick that left Prazeres shooting for a desperation takedown, which Rakhmonov easily reversed, ending up on top. As he patiently landed ground and pound, Prazeres gave up his back and Rakhmonov quickly locked up a rear-naked choke to end the fight.
Rakhmonov’s first UFC win took even less time against another UFC veteran, when he submitted Alex Oliveira with a late, first round guillotine choke in October 2020. For the record, Oliveira has now lost three straight and has been submitted in six of his 11 pro losses. Oliveira also missed weight by 2 lb after accepting that fight on short notice when Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos dropped out. Rakhmonov had originally been scheduled to make his UFC debut in March 2020 against Bartosz Fabinski but the event was canceled due to COVID. Later, he was booked to debut against Ramazan Emeev, but was forced to withdraw in July. While this will only be his third UFC fight, Rakhmonov has also finished current UFC fighter Jun Yong Park, though not in the UFC. It came via a second round rear-naked choke in 2016 before either guy joined the organization.
Not only is Rakhmonov undefeated, all 14 of his wins have come early and he’s only ever been to the third round once. His finishes are evenly split between knockouts and submissions with seven apiece. Five of his knockouts have come in round one, with one in round two, and another in round three. Three of his submissions occurred in the first round, but notable for betting, four of his last five submission wins ended in round two. Overall, Rakhmonov is dangerous anywhere the fight goes, owing largely to his very well rounded game with both solid striking and grappling.
Despite all of his early wins, Rakhmonov is somewhat of a patient, calculated fighter who’s less likely to land a ton of volume, but instead makes it count when he does land. At 6’1” and with a massive 77” reach, he has good size for the division.
Carlston Harris
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Also coming in on an impressive finishing streak, Harris finished both of his first two UFC opponents in under three minutes. His most recent win came against former Middleweight Impa Kasanganay, who was fighting down at Welterweight for just the second time. Harris clipped Kasanganay with a short right hook that looked to hurt him and then aggressively swarmed him, dropped him to the mat, and forced a stoppage through ground and pound. It was a rather bizarre sequence, but Harris appears to have sneaky power in those short hooks. That was Harris’ sixth straight fight to end in eight minutes or less and his fifth consecutive win. He’s also won 9 of his last 10 fights and has decision wins over UFC fighters Michel Pereira and Wellington Turman prior to joining the UFC in 2015 and 2016.
In his May 2021 UFC debut, Harris was set up for grappling success against a one-dimensional power puncher in Christian Aguilera who was coming off a submission loss to Sean Brady and who has now been finished in six of his eight career losses. It only took Harris 14 seconds to shoot for his first takedown, but Aguilera was able to remain on the feet and force Harris into a striking battle. Undeterred, Harris showed off his hands and caught Aguilera, turning him into a wrestler. As Aguilera shot for a desperation takedown, Harris immediately wrapped up his neck and choked him unconscious.
Harris’ last loss was a 2018 R1 KO in his first title defense of the Brave Welterweight belt. He had just won the title in a grappling-heavy 5-round decision, but wasn’t able to hang onto it for even a full round. That loss is the only time Harris has been finished in 21 pro fights. Now 17-4 as a pro, Harris’ other three losses all ended in decisions, with the most recent of those occurring way back in 2016. His first two decision losses occurred in his first and third pro fights and after starting his career 1-2, he’s impressively gone 16-2 in his last 18 matches.
Ten of his 17 career wins have come early, split evenly with five KOs and five submissions to go along with seven decision wins. While his last fight remained on the feet, Harris tends to employ a smother-grappling heavy approach that utilizes chain wrestling and a lower striking volume. While he is a threat to end fights on the mat with both submissions and ground and pound, he’s still dangerous standing, as recently demonstrated.
Fight Prediction:
Rakhmonov will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is seven years younger than the 34-year-old Harris.
Both of these fighters are exciting finishers, but Rakhmonov stands out as being exceptionally rock solid, while Harris appears a little more vulnerable to taking damage. While Harris is always a threat to finish opponents, it’s hard to see Rakhmonov losing this one and we like his chances to extend his finishing/winning streak to 15. Harris’ background is in grappling and while Rakhmonov has finished his first two UFC opponents with submissions, it would make sense for him to finish this one with a knockout, most likely in the first round where 5 of his 7 career KO wins have occurred. With that said, he’s fully capable of ending this with either a KO or submission. We expect him to get a finish in the opening two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Waiting on Props” at +X.
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DFS Implications:
Undefeated and with a 100% finishing rate, Rakhmonov has looked dominant since joining the UFC in 2020. He’s only been past the second round once in his 14 fight career, and has both solid striking and grappling. We’ve yet to see him fully reach his DFS scoring potential, but he still scored 100 and 98 DraftKings points in his first two UFC fights, despite landing zero knockdowns and just one combined takedown. He also doesn’t throw much volume, which hasn’t helped him any. However, it’s just a matter of time before we see variance swing his way when it comes to filling up a stat sheet, as he has the ability to dominate opponents both on the feet and the mat. One major downside for Rakhmonov in tournaments is that he’ll be incredibly popular and was 46% owned the last time he fought on another 13-fight card. While we like his chances to get a finish and put up a big score, so does the rest of the field. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 46% chance to get a finish, and a 28% chance it comes in round one.
Harris is coming off a pair of first round finishes in his first two UFC fights that scored 94 and 110 DraftKings points. If these two fighters weren’t facing each other, they could easily be the two most popular 3-round fighters on the slate. It will be interesting to see how the field resolves that conflict as they square off against one another. Harris was 38% owned as a slight +100 underdog in his last fight, although he was clearly mispriced on DraftKings at just $7,300 which certainly elevated his ownership slightly. His grappling heavy style lends itself more towards DraftKings in fights that go the distance, but he also hasn’t seen the judges since 2017 so those instances have been few and far between. This is just about the toughest matchup Harris could ask for at this stage in his UFC career, so it’s hard to get excited about playing him, especially considering how popular he was in his last outing. With that said, we expect the winner of this fight to score well so you can’t completely ignore him. The odds imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Punahele Soriano
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Soriano made it past the first round for just the second time as a pro. That makes for two of his fights in the UFC that have gone the distance (1-1). His round one or bust status was as clear as ever, as he looked tired early in round two. However, Brendan Allen never really looked to capitalize on that as he continued to methodically point his way to victory as opposed to really pushing for a finish. Surprisingly, Allen only shot for one unsuccessful takedown in the fight as he was content with competing in a kickboxing match. Soriano did not attempt any takedowns of his own and Allen went on to win a unanimous decision as he outlanded Soriano 94-66 in striking.
Prior to suffering that loss, Soriano was 2-0 in the UFC with both of those wins ending in first round knockouts. The most recent was an impressive win over Dusko Todorovic. Prior to that, Soriano defeated a helpless Oskar Piechota in his 2019 UFC debut. Soriano didn’t fight at all in 2020 as he battled injuries following his debut. He had been scheduled to face Eric Spicely in March 2020 and Anthony Hernandez in May 2020, but was forced to withdraw from both fights. The Hernandez matchup was rebooked for June 2021, but now it was Hernandez who withdrew after suffering a hand injury. Soriano was then matched up with a tougher opponent in Brendan Allen.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Soriano has seven first round wins, including five by KO and two by submission. Five of his last six finishes have come by KO and that seems to be the way he looks to end fights. One of his two submissions occurred in his first pro fight back in 2017 and the other occured in 2018. The first time he made it past the first round was in his sixth pro fight when he went on DWCS and defeated Jamie Pickett via decision. While Soriano didn’t look as explosive following the first round in that fight, he was still able to land three takedowns in the later rounds to secure the decision win as he outlanded Pickett 47-36 in significant strikes and 106-37 in total strikes while tacking on three takedowns on four attempts. Even though the fight went the distance, it was still enough to land Soriano a UFC contract.
Soriano is a violent striker who also happens to be an All-American collegiate wrestler. While he’s gone just 1 for 2 on takedowns in his three UFC fights, he has his wrestling to fall back on when things get hairy, exemplified by the three takedowns landed on DWCS as was previously mentioned. However, he has said that he uses his wrestling to keep fights on the feet so he can look for knockouts, which lines up with his fighting style under the UFC. Impressively, Soriano landed four knockdowns in his first two UFC fights, but failed to land a knockdown in his two most recent fights..
Nick Maximov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a decision win in his recent UFC debut, Maximov defeated another debuting wrestler in Cody Brundage, who took the fight on very short notice after Karl Roberson withdrew just days before the fight. Maximov was able to control Brundage for the majority of the match, landing 4 of his 15 takedown attempts with over nine minutes of control time. Brundage failed on his only takedown attempt, but led in significant strikes 28-14, while Maximov led in total strikes 84-59. Neither guy is a great striker and the fight was essentially one long wrestling match with over 11 minutes of combined control time. That was Maximov’s first time competing at 185 lb as a pro, with four of his prior matches at Light Heavyweight, one at 195 lb Catchweight, and one at Heavyweight.
Prior to making his debut at 185 lb, Maximov won a decision on DWCS in November 2020 in a bizarre matchup fought all the way up at Heavyweight against a massive opponent in Oscar Cota. Maximov normally competes at Light Heavyweight or Middleweight, which was evident if you watched the matchup as he weighed in at just 209 lb. His opponent tipped the scales at 263.5 lb. Maximov was immediately able to take down his larger foe as he caught the first kick Cota threw with the entire fight played out on the mat. Maximov finished with just 2 official takedowns on five attempts, but over 11 minutes of control time. He also led in significant strikes 37-5 and in total strikes 142-59. Two of the judges awarded him a 30-26 decision victory, while the “always reliable” Adalaide Byrd naturally scored it 29-28.
Looking back one fight further, Maximov landed a second round submission victory in the LFA in September 2020, two months prior to going on DWCS. In that fight, Maximov once again relentlessly shot for takedowns from the start, landing five in the first round and seven overall before finishing the fight late in round two with a rear-naked choke. We’ve now seen nearly eight straight rounds of Maximov grappling his way to victory and he comes into every fight with the same wrestling-heavy gameplan.
While Maximov holds a perfect 7-0 pro record, he’s exclusively fought questionable competition, who entered with records of 6-1 (a UFC debutant against another who took the fight on a few day’s notice), 11-2 (DWCS HW), 1-1, 1-10, 0-0, 0-1, and 0-2. Maximov has also competed in 10 grappling bouts (5-5) since he turned pro in MMA in 2018. While Maximov does have two wins by R1 KO, those came against opponents with records of 0-2 and 0-0. These fights occurred during his first three pro fights. He also has three wins by submission, with two ending in round two and one in round one. It’s worth noting that his last two fights have both gone the distance after his first five ended in the first two rounds.
Maximov trains at the Nick Diaz Academy and made his debut on a Nick Diaz undercard with a couple of teammates fighting alongside him. Maximov is a BJJ brown belt and collegiate wrestling experience. Maximov has gone 13 for 28 on takedown attempts in his last three fights, averaging 0.72 takedown attempts per minute over that three-fight stretch, landing 0.33/min. He’s given us no indication that he can compete in a striking battle and he appears to be a one-dimensional grappler. In fairness, he’s still just 24 years old and early in his career, so he’ll likely be looking to improve on his striking and other weaknesses every day.
Fight Prediction:
Maximov will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
The UFC appears intent on testing the grappling of Soriano and after Brendan Allen surprisingly didn’t land a single takedown in their last fight, the UFC is now giving Soriano an opponent who is essentially guaranteed to grapple. The only person to even attempt a takedown on Soriano in his last four fights was Allen, who missed on his lone attempt. While we can point to the fact that Soriano was an All-American collegiate wrestler, we don’t really know what his defensive grappling will look like and we’ve yet to see him have to fight off his back. With that said, we’d be surprised to see him be much of a defensive submission threat and defending wrestling also has the potential to more quickly deplete his already dubious gas tank. If Soriano does get taken down he could be in real trouble. On the counterside, Maximov has done nothing to impress us with his striking and he looks entirely reliant on his wrestling to win fights, which is definitely concerning considering he’s going against a former All-American collegiate wrestler who’s never been taken down and throws bombs on the feet. If Maximov is unable to be the first person to ever take Soriano down, he stands no chance in this fight as this will easily be the toughest opponent he’s faced in his career. We like Soriano’s chances of keeping this fight standing long enough to notch another first round knockout, but if it makes it past the first round we could see his cardio play a factor in both his power and ability to defend takedowns, allowing Maximov to take over and land a second round submission or win a decision. With all that said, we’re still taking Soriano here.
Our favorite bet here is “Soriano R1 Win” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Generally a field favorite due to his explosive knockout ability, Soriano was 52% owned on DraftKings the last time we saw him, and 35% owned the time before that. It will be interesting to see to what extent his recent loss reduces his ownership, but you should always expect him to be popular. He put up massive DraftKings scores of 124 and 128 in his two UFC wins, both coming by R1 KO and each including a pair of knockdowns. Seven of his eight career wins have come early and all of those finishes have occurred in the first round. When you combine that with his questionable gas tank, it’s hard to think of him as anything more than a round one or bust play in DFS. With that said, he does have a wrestling background and Maximov will be looking to turn this into a wrestling match, so it’s always possible Soriano is forced to grapple more. This could actually boost his scoring if this fight doesn’t end early. That’s not something we can rely on; we’re just throwing it out there. Overall, we should still be treating him as a popular round one or bust play, which almost always means we want to be under the field to some extent in large-field tournaments. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 24 % chance it comes in the first round.
Maximov is a one-dimensional grappler, which means he’s a better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. While he owns a 7-0 pro record, he’s yet to face any real competition in his career and this will be his toughest opponent to date. After all of his first five pro wins ended in the first two rounds, he’s now coming off a pair of decision victories, as he is generally only dangerous when he’s looking for rear-naked chokes. He’s gone 13 for 28 on takedown attempts in his last three fights and attempted an eyebrow raising 15 attempts in his recent debut. However, he only landed four of them, but tacked on 11+ minutes of control time. That decision win was good for 96 DraftKings points, but just 52 points on FanDuel. While Maximov’s relentless takedown numbers present the possibility to score well even in a decision, especially on DraftKings, Soriano has notably never been taken down and is a former All-American collegiate wrestler. It will be very interesting to see how the grappling exchanges go, but this is clearly a difficult matchup for Maximov to excel in and the only way we see him winning is through wrestling. It’s also possible Maximov can simply outlast Soriano, who looked visibly tired early in the second round of his last fight. The odds imply Maximov has a 36% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Sean Strickland
15th UFC Fight (11-3)Entering this matchup on a five fight winning streak, Strickland is coming off of a 5-round decision win over Uriah Hall, one where Strickland controlled the entire fight. He finished ahead in significant strikes 186-107 and in total strikes 221-122. After attempting only a single takedown in his previous five fights, Strickland went 4 for 6 on his attempts against Hall, a smart move considering Hall is basically a one-dimensional striker. As a BJJ blue belt, he is hardly a threat on the mat. With that said, Strickland’s timing on some of his takedowns had seemed misguided as he had Hall hurt at several points, but instead then looked to take him down along the fence as opposed to finishing the fight on the feet. Strickland has shown us at multiple points he’s far more concerned with securing wins than looking for finishes and his decision making against Hall has reconfirmed that notion.
That was Strickland’s first 5-round fight since joining the UFC, although he did have four 5-rounders in a row just before joining the organization back in 2012 and 2013. He won all four of those, two by way of decision and two R1 KO/TKOs.
Only one of Strickland’s last 13 fights has ended in the 1st round and that was his 2018 R1 KO loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Since then, he’s been out of the first round in five straight fights, with three of those going the distance. The last time Strickland finished an opponent in the first round was in a 2014 R1 submission in his UFC debut, while the last time he knocked anyone out in the first round goes all the way back to 2013 before joining the UFC.
Strickland’s somewhat cautious approach to fighting makes him a tough fighter to defeat as he stays defensively sound while constantly inching forward and pumping out his jab to point his way to victory. Often, we see situations where fighters lose a bout despite leading in striking, and win fights when they’re clearly trailing. However, Strickland has gone 11-0 in the UFC with victories where he leads in striking, and 0-3 when he trails. He seems fully aware that his best path to victory is to fight his way to decisions. Since returning from an extended layoff due to a knee injury in 2020, Strickland has gone the distance in 3 of his 4 fights, averaging 7.64 SSL/min over that stretch, while absorbing just 3.95/min.
While he landed five takedowns on seven attempts during that four fight stretch, all but one of those occurred in his most recent fight against one-dimensional striker Uriah Hall. He’s not a terrible grappler by any means, but he’s rarely looking to get fights to the ground anymore. While he landed eight takedowns in his first five UFC fights (1.88 TDL/15 min), he has only landed eight in his last nine fights (1.01 TDL/15 min), with half of those coming in his last match.
When it comes to defending takedowns, Strickland has a really solid 82% takedown defense and has only given up 7 on 39 attempts in his 14 UFC fights. The only person to take Strickland down in his last nine fights was Kamaru Usman, who landed two takedowns on eight attempts. However, Strickland has only had to defend two total takedowns in his last six fights, as no one has really been testing his defense recently. It definitely doesn’t hurt that Strickland regularly trains grappling with Marvin Vettori, a notable detail since Hermansson’s last loss came against Vettori in a 5-round fight in December 2020.
Strickland is now 11-3 in the UFC, with 9 of his 14 UFC fights going the distance (7-2) and five ending early (4-1). His last three finishes came in rounds two and three, with his last two ending in R2 TKOs. The only time he’s been finished in his career resulted from a 2018 R1 KO from a spinning wheel kick against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Looking at his entire career, Strickland is 24-3, with 10 KOs, four submissions, and 10 decision victories. Other than the one KO loss, he has a 2017 decision loss to Kamaru Usman and a 2015 decision loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio. All three of his career losses occurred down at 170 lb, where he went 5-3 in the UFC from 2015 to 2018. He won his first two IFC fights at 185 lb in 2014 before moving down to 170 lb. Since moving back up to 185 lb in 2020, he’s won four more, although one of those was a short notice Catchweight match up at 195 lb. If we include that in his UFC Middleweight record, he’s 6-0 when not killing himself to get down to 170 lb. Following a 2018 R2 TKO win Strickland was forced into a 2-year layoff following a motorcycle accident and a career-threatening knee injury. Upon his return he moved back up to 185 lb where he has since had great success.
Jack Hermansson
14th UFC Fight (9-4)Continuing to trade wins and losses over his last five fights, Hermansson most recently won a decision over horizontally challenged Edmen Shahbazyan, who has now lost three straight fights due to his struggles on the mat. While the first round of that fight played out entirely on the feet, Hermansson was able to take it to the mat in rounds two and three as he landed three of his five takedown attempts in the later two rounds, with over seven minutes of control time. Hermansson nearly got a late finish through ground and pound but he simply ran out of time. Hermansson finished ahead in significant strikes 55-40 and in total strikes 141-42, while going 3 for 6 on his takedowns attempts with just over seven minutes of control time.
In his second most recent fight, Hermansson lost a 5-round decision to short notice replacement Marvin Vettori in December 2020. Vettori pushed the pace early and dropped Hermansson with a stiff left cross midway through the first round. However, Vettori was unable to finish Hermansson on the ground as he kept looking for a guillotine choke instead of simply laying down heavy ground and pound. The second and third rounds were far less eventful, with neither fighter in danger of getting finished at any point. Hermansson appeared to win the third round but Vettori increased his own output in the fourth and fifth rounds as the two fighters traded punches for the final 10 minutes. Fascinating enough, Vettori only attempted one takedown in the fight, one which he didn’t land. One could say it was a potential showing of respect for Hermansson’s submission game or that he’s now far more comfortable with his own stand up game. On the other side, Hermansson went 2 for 7 on his takedown attempts. Vettori finished with 164 significant strikes (6.56/min) and at the time that fight set the record for the most combined significant strikes landed in a Middleweight fight in UFC history as Hermansson finished with 122 of his own. That record didn’t last long as Sean Strickland passed it when he defeated Uriah Hall and landed 186 significant strikes with Hall landing 107. That 186 total is also the most significant strikes ever landed in a Middleweight fight by one fighter.
While Hermansson has only been to three decisions in his last 12 fights, he’s now gone to the judges in two straight and three of his last five. Two of those decisions notably occurred in 5-round fights. His first three UFC losses all ended early, with a 2016 R2 KO against Cezar Ferreira, a 2017 R1 KO against Thiago Santos, and a 2019 R2 KO against Jared Cannonier. His lone UFC decision loss was against Vettori. His last three early wins all ended in first round submissions, while two of his last three early losses occurred in round two. Overall, he has six finishes in the UFC, with five in round one and one in round three. Strickland appears most dangerous in the first round when it comes to getting a finish. Bearing that in mind, four of his last five fights have made it past the first round.
Of his overall 22 pro wins, 17 have come early, with 11 KOs and 6 submissions to go along with five decisions. Ten of those wins came in the first round. All three of his KOs in the UFC resulted from heavy ground and pound, something that Hermansson prides himself on. Whether it’s through his submission game or via ground and pound, Hermansson generally finishes his opponents on the mat and is far less of a threat on the feet. His losses have been evenly distributed, with two by KO/TKO, two by submission, and two more by decision.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” but Hermansson will have a 1” reach advantage.
This pairing sets the stage for an uptempo boxing match for as long as it stays on the feet, but Hermansson will almost certainly be looking to take the fight to the ground. That’s easier said than done considering Hermansson has just a 36% career takedown accuracy, while Strickland has an 82% defense. In his last nine fights, that number has risen to 92% as Strickland has only been grounded twice on 24 opponent attempts, with both of those coming from Kamaru Usman. It’s worth pointing out that the majority of the takedowns he’s defended in his career have come down at 170 lb, as he’s only been taken down once on just three attempts at Middleweight. Even if Hermansson does get this fight to the mat at some point, Strickland isn’t completely helpless on the mat. He doesn’t offer much off his back other than going for heel hook attempts, but all four of his career submission wins have come via rear-naked choke. He’s never been submitted and the only person to control him for long on the ground was Usman. Strickland has a good left jab that he works behind to maximize his length and he generally doesn’t load up on his punches, allowing him to land a good amount of volume. While Strickland isn’t close to the grappler that Vettori is, we expect this fight to play out similarly to when Vettori defeated Hermansson in a high-volume 5-round decision. Look for Strickland to get his hand raised as he outlands his way to another decision win here.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Strickland is coming off a record setting striking performance where he landed the most ever significant strikes in a Middleweight match (186). Impressively, this came against Uriah Hall who had never absorbed more than 75 in his previous 17 UFC fights and came into that fight averaging 3.54 SSA/min in his career. In fairness, Hall had also never been in a fight that lasted longer than 17 minutes before going the full 25 minutes against Strickland. Nevertheless, Strickland averaged 7.44 SSL/min in that 25 minute decision win and has been on a tear since returning in 2020 after healing from a career threatening knee injury he suffered in a motorcycle accident. Showing that his recent striking explosion wasn’t a fluke, Strickland has averaged 7.64 SSL/min in his last four fights since returning from injury and moving back up to Middleweight. Previously, he spent four years down at Welterweight. That striking explosion against Hall was good for 144 DraftKings points and 156 points on FanDuel, although those scores also benefited from four takedowns and seven minutes of control time. This is not something we normally see out of Strickland as he only has one takedown in his previous five fights combined. Regardless, his high striking volume keeps him squarely in play for DFS regardless of whether or not he tacks on any takedowns or gets a finish. With three of his last four fights ending in decisions, there’s a good chance this next one will as well. Strickland is a solid striker and decent grappler, although he rarely shows his ground game. He’ll need to stay off his back to win this fight, which is where Hermansson will be looking to put him. Working in Strickland’s favor, he has an 82% career takedown defense and Hermansson has just a 36% career takedown accuracy. The only person to take Strickland down in his last nine fights was Kamaru Usman, who landed two takedowns on eight attempts in a 2017 matchup. The odds imply Strickland has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Similar to Strickland, we’ve seen Hermansson put up big DFS scores in five round decisions and he actually owns the record for the seventh most significant strikes landed in a Middleweight fight (148) as well as the third most significant strikes ever absorbed in a Middleweight match (164). Both of those numbers suggest that this will be a high-paced brawl and the winner should score well. Hermansson scored 97 DraftKings points in a recent three round decision win, which set a pace to score 142 DraftKings points and 105 FanDuel points if we extend those numbers over a 25 minute fight. Hermansson scored 63 DraftKings points in a 2020 5-round decision loss and 138 DraftKings points in a 5-round decision win and it’s hard to see him not returning value with a win here, especially considering his cheap DFS price tag. He also has a history of landing finishes, with 17 of his 22 career wins coming early. With that said, Strickland has just one early loss in his 27 pro fight career and it’s obvious he’s a really tough fighter to put away. Overall, this looks like a tough matchup for Hermansson, as he likes to get opponents to the mat and beat them up with ground and pound or hunt for submissions. He has a really solid arm-in guillotine that he’s used to submit Gerald Meerschaert and David Branch in consecutive fights back in 2018 and 2019. Strickland has a solid 82% takedown defense but if Hermansson can pull off the upset he should put up a big DFS score on both sites. It’s hard to see the winner of this main event getting left out of the winning lineup on either site. The odds imply Hermansson has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in the first round.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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