Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Enjoying The Sheet?
Buy Us a Beer!
Fight Day Scratches: Kang/Yahya is OFF and Stolze/Gooden was off but is now back on!
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Orion Cosce
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Cosce is coming off a R3 TKO win on DWCS last August, where he started slow but ended up outlasting his opponent, Matt Dixon, who gassed out midway through the fight after landing three takedowns in the first round, but finishing just 3 for 10 on his attempts. Cosce spent most of the fight looking to land haymakers, but also landed a ton of ground and pound strikes late in the match to pad his stats as Dixon was simply looking to hang on. Cosce looked like he was trying to end the fight with every shot he threw, but nevertheless was still able to be the fresher fighter in the third round. He landed his lone takedown attempt of the fight a minute into the third round and spent the next three plus minutes wearing away at Dixon with heavy top pressure and ground and pound. The fight ended with Cosce ahead in significant strikes 67-29 and in total strikes 143-66.
With that win, Cosce moved to 7-0 as a pro with six knockouts and one submission win. He’s never been to the judges and while his first three fights all ended in the first round, three of his last four have ended in R3 KOs. He hasn’t fought much in the way of competition with his first six opponents entering with records of 1-1, 1-3, 1-0, 4-0, 18-43 and 2-2. His explanation for that is nobody wanted to fight him and he finished everyone they put in front of him. While that very well may be true, we still haven’t seen how he’ll fare against UFC level talent.
Cosce had been scheduled to make his UFC debut back in November against Nicolas Dalby, on the same slate as his brother, but was forced to withdraw and watch from the sidelines while his younger brother, Louis, gassed out and got finished in the third round. Orion’s cardio has looked better than Louis’, so we’re less concerned about him succumbing to the same fate, but he also doesn’t look nearly as dangerous in the first round as his younger brother.
Philip Rowe
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Rowe will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Gabe Green in his February 2021 UFC debut where he had his left leg so badly chewed up that he could hardly even stand on it late in the fight. Green may have been able to get a finish if he had simply made Rowe stand up with a minute remaining in the third round after he collapsed from a final leg strike, but Green instead curiously decided to go to the ground with him instead. Green finished ahead in significant strikes 70-42 and in total strikes 128-48, while also notching a pair of knockdowns and two takedowns on two attempts along with over three minutes of control time. Rowe actually looked pretty decent in the first round, although at times appeared to struggle with the pressure of Green, which seemed to negate Rowe’s massive height and reach advantages. Rowe showed decent striking and grappling, but looked very hittable and didn’t appear to check any kicks.
Rowe would have made his UFC debut sooner, but he had three fights booked and canceled in 2020. Rowe was scheduled to make his UFC debut against Matthew Semelsberger back on August 22nd last year, but was forced to withdraw due to a broken toe. That came after his April 11th debut with Cole Williams was scratched when the entire event was cancelled due to COVID. And his original UFC debut was set to take place on March 28th against Laureano Staropoli, but Rowe also withdrew from that fight.
A year and a half prior to his recent loss, Rowe punched his ticket to the UFC when he landed a third round KO win on DWCS. Rowe got knocked down early in that 2019 DWCS match and looked to be in trouble, however, he was able to recover and really turned it on in the second round, before finishing things just as the third round started. That was Rowe’s seventh straight finish after he lost his first two pro fights back in 2014 and 2015 in a R1 KO and a decision. All of Rowe’s previous six finishes had notably come in the first two rounds. Rowe is now 7-3 as a pro, with four submission wins and three by KO. His knockout wins have been spread out across the three rounds, while he has two first round submissions and two in the second.
One important thing to keep in mind is that Rowe’s wins have come against a much lower level of competition. Here are the records of his first nine pro opponents beginning with his two early career losses: 1-0 (L), 0-0 (L), 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 4-5, 7-1 (Leon Shahbazyan on DWCS). So outside of his DWCS fight, Rowe has notably never beaten an opponent with a winning record.
At 6’3” with an 80” reach, Rowe has a background in basketball, not martial arts, and was a self-described terrible fighter when he first started MMA. However, after training with Jacare Souza, Mike Perry and Rodolfo Vieira, Rowe thinks he’s now ready to compete at the UFC level.
UPDATE: Rowe missed weight by 2.5 lb but otherwise seemed okay on the scales.
Fight Prediction:
Rowe will have a 4” height advantage and massive 9” reach advantage.
Rowe seemed to struggle with the pressure of Gabe Green, so it will be interesting to see if Cosce can find similar success to negate Rowe’s huge reach advantage. On the other side of things, Cosce has looked vulnerable to being taken down early in fights and Rowe has landed early submissions in two of his last three wins. Considering Rowe has only been to one decision in his last eight fights and Cosce has never seen the judges in his seven fight career, there’s a good chance this one ends early. With that said, Cosce comes in with an undefeated record and the only time Rowe was ever finished came in his pro debut via R1 KO back in 2014. Both of their records are completely padded, so we should take their past success with a grain of salt, but Rowe appears to have a more well rounded game with better grappling. Rowe has also been better at getting opponents out in the first two rounds, while Cosce has lately appeared to wear on his opponents and finish them late. While we don’t have much confidence in either one of these two, we’ll give the edge to Rowe and say he gets his first UFC win here.
Rowe’s moneyline was solid earlier in the week but has since been bet down considerably, so we’re looking at taking a few stabs here on props instead. We like “Cosce Wins by R3 KO” at +1100, “Rowe Wins in R1” at +600, “Rowe Wins in R2” at +850, “Rowe Wins by R1 Submission” at +1200, “Fight Ends in R1” at +200 and “Fight Ends in R2” at +340.
DFS Implications:
Cosce has clear upside as he’s finished all seven of his career opponents early, but we have no idea how that finishing ability will translate to the UFC. He throws wild punches, doesn't mix in many jabs and relies on finishes to win fights. While three of his last four finishes have notably come in the third round, his most recent of those still would have scored 100 DraftKings points and 117 points on FanDuel. Just keep in mind, his last opponent completely gassed out in that fight and Cosce was able to rack up stats late. In the first round Cosce landed just eight significant strikes and 26 total strikes, while he was taken down three times on four attempts. So barring another stat-stuffing third round, Cosce doesn’t look like the type of fighter that will generally score well in a decision, although so far he’s never been to one. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 37% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in R1.
Rowe is the type of fighter who generally contributes to high DFS scoring regardless of whether or not he wins, as 8 of his 10 career fights have ended early and even in his recent decision loss his opponent scored 105 DraftKings points and 115 points on FanDuel. Rowe averages 4.99 SSL/min (7th most on the slate) and 5.34 SSA min (5th most on the slate), while he also went 2 for 6 on takedowns in his recent UFC debut and owns just a 33% takedown accuracy and 25% takedown defense. All seven of his career wins have come early, with six of those ending in the first two rounds. He’s also been knocked out once in the first round himself and was nearly finished in his last fight by leg strikes. With a healthy combination of striking and grappling to fill up stat sheets, Rowe makes for a solid play on both DFS sites and saw a sizable early week line move in his favor. At his cheap price tag, Rowe can likely still put up a useful score even in a decision win. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish and a 9% chance to finish the fight in R1.
Fight #10
Ashley Yoder
10th UFC Fight (3-6)Fresh off a lopsided decision loss to Angela Hill, Yoder has now dropped three of her last four and is just 3-6 in her nine UFC fights. All nine of those matches have ended in decisions and in Yoder’s 15 fight pro career she’s gone 8-7 with four submission wins, including three in the first round, and four decisions. However, all four of those submissions came in her first six pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-2, 1-3, 0-0 and 6-2. All seven of her career losses have notably ended in decisions.
Upon entering the UFC in 2016, Yoder proceeded to lose decisions in her first three fights against Justine Kish, Angela Hill and Mackenzie Dern. Following the string of losses, Yoder kept her UFC hopes alive by winning her next two matches, but she has since dropped three of her last four with her lone win over that time coming against Miranda Granger.
Yoder has drawn the short end of the stick on the majority of her split decisions, only winning one of the three. She’s a one-dimensional grappler and doesn’t offer much in the striking department. The only way she’s been able to finish fights in the past has been through Armbar submissions and she only averages 2.75 SSL/min (6th fewest on the slate). Despite being a pure wrestler, Yoder has failed to land more than two takedowns in any of her last seven fights.
Jinh Yu Frey
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After fighting her entire pre-UFC career at Atomweight (105 lb), Frey was forced to move up to Strawweight (115 lb) when she joined the UFC in June 2020. Since the move up, Frey has gone 1-2 with a third round Armbar submission loss in her debut followed by a decision loss in October 2020. In a near must win spot, Frey bounced back with an impressive grappling-heavy decision win over Gloria de Paula in her most recent fight and seems to be growing into the weight class as she improves her strength. Frey was able to control De Paula on the mat for essentially the entire first and third rounds, but lost the second round on the feet in between. The low-volume fight ended with De Paula ahead in significant strikes 31-24 and in total strikes 51-50, but Frey landing 2 of her 3 takedown attempts and finishing with over nine and half minutes of control time and two official submission attempts.
Frey’s last seven wins have all come by decision, with three of her last four going five rounds just before she joined the UFC. However, three of her last five losses have ended early, with a 2016 R2 KO due to a doctor stoppage, a 2017 R1 KO, and the 2020 R3 submission loss in her UFC debut. Three of Frey’s 10 career wins have also come early, with all three ending in the first round. However those should be taken with a grain of salt, as all three of those wins came in her first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 1-4, 3-2 and 0-2.
Frey coincidentally landed exactly 26 significant strikes in each of her first two UFC fights and then 24 in her recent decision win. She did a good job early on in her debut defending takedowns against a solid grappler in Kay Hansen, only allowing 2 takedowns on 11 attempts and then defended another takedown in her second UFC fight. So she has only been taken down twice on 12 attempts so far in the UFC and holds an 83% takedown defense.
Fight Prediction:
Yoder will have a 4” height and reach advantage.
Yoder has no striking game to speak of, and while Frey isn’t great on the feet either, we still give her the better chance to win a striking battle. So this fight will likely come down to how her 83% takedown defense holds up against the 37% takedown accuracy of Yoder. Most likely, Yoder will put up something like another 2 for 6 takedown performance and we’ll see a close low-volume decision. This feels about like a coin flip, but if Frey’s takedown defense can hold up we think she can potentially steal a decision here.
The absolutely safest possible way to bet this fight is to bet “Fight Goes the Distance” at -290 and hedge with “Yoder Wins by Submission” at +600. However, if you’re not interested in grinding out mutual fund-like returns, consider “Yoder Wins by R1 submission” at +1600 or “Frey Wins by Decision” at +230, which is a solid value considering the moneyline odds imply she has a 43% chance to win this fight and the chances of her getting a finish are borderline non-existent.
DFS Implications:
Yoder has only topped 65 DraftKings points twice in her nine UFC fights. The first time was in her 2019 decision win over Syuri Kondo where Yoder landed 75 significant strikes and a takedown—but more importantly racked up a dominating 13 minutes of control time on her way to a career best 103 point performance. The second time was when she scored 90 DraftKings points in her most recent decision win (second most recent fight), where she notched over eight minutes of control time. Those two performances were notably good for just 71 and 63 points on FanDuel, and Yoder’s grappling heavy approach is unlikely to ever score well on FanDuel without a finish. One reason for optimism in Yoder is that Frey was submitted via Armbar in her UFC debut, and all four of Yoder’s career finishes have come by Armbar. Yoder will also have a 4” height and reach advantage over Frey. The odds imply Yoder has a 57% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Frey has given us no reason to think she can score well in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 11, 23 and 72 in her three UFC fights. Even with a one-sided grappling heavy decision win where she amassed over nine and half minutes of control time, Frey still scored just 72 DK points and 56 points on FanDuel. She lacks the striking and grappling volume to score well without an early finish and she hasn’t landed one of those since her fourth pro fight, all the way back in 2014. Yoder has also notably never been finished. While Frey could certainly win a low scoring decision here, we don’t see any upside for her in DFS and she’s unlikely to score enough to even serve as a value play. The odds imply she has a 43% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #9
Kai Kamaka
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off a split-decision loss to TJ Brown, Kamaka has now dropped two in a row after winning his previous six fights, including a decision win in his August 2020 UFC debut. Brown outlanded Kamaka 82-61 in significant strikes and 110-85 in total strikes while landing 2 of 4 takedowns. However, Kamaka landed a takedown of his own and also notched a knockdown in the second round, as well as putting up over five and a half minutes of control time. Judging was all over the place as one judge ruled the fight 30-27 in favor of Kamaka, while the other two ruled it 29-28 in favor of Brown. In reality, all of those scorecards were probably wrong as it looked like Kamaka should have won 29-28.
Prior to that loss, Kamaka was knocked out by Jonathan Pearce in the second round of an action packed fight that Kamaka stepped into on just eight days notice after Sean Woodson was originally scheduled to face Pearce but dropped out. Kamaka was giving up 5” of height and 2” of reach to Jonathan Pearce, who did a good job of using his size advantage to overwhelm Kamaka, especially in the grappling department. Pearce narrowly outlanded Kamaka in significant strikes 51-47, but did his best work with ground and pound where the margin was much wider in total strikes at 113-48. Pearce landed five takedowns on seven attempts, as he relentlessly hunted for the finish with chokes and ground and pound in the second round, until the ref finally stopped the fight. Kamaka went 1 for 3 on his own takedown attempts, and was able to reverse the position once, but he was clearly outmatched from a grappling standpoint. Kamaka did make a last-ditch attempt to steal the fight with a Guillotine submission on what ultimately was Pearce’s final takedown, but Pearce was able to get out of it without too much trouble. Kamaka
Leading up to the pair of recent losses, Kamaka’s previous seven fights had all gone the distance. His only other two career fights to end early came in his second and third pro bouts, with a 2014 R1 Rear-Naked Choke win (against a 1-7 opponent) and a 2015 R1 TKO loss by doctor stoppage. Following that early career KO loss, Kamaka took nearly two years off before returning in 2017 to lose a decision and start his pro career off 2-2. Following the bumpy start, he’s now 8-4 as a pro with seven of his wins ending in decisions, but two of his four losses ending in knockouts.
Kamaka made his ultra short notice UFC debut last August on just a few days notice, and just two weeks after fighting to a three round decision win in the LFA. He took on a fellow debuting fighter in Tony Kelley, but while Kamaka hadn’t fought in 15 days, Kelley hadn’t fought in 15 months. Kamaka showcased his quick combinations of straight punches early on, as he consistently pushed the pace from the start. However, Kelley appeared to catch up on strikes late in the second and early in the third rounds, and the fight ended in a unanimous 29-28 decision win for Kamaka. The significant strikes finished dead even at 114, but Kamaka led in takedowns 5-0 and amassed over five minutes of control time.
After starting his pro career at 135 lb, Kamaka moved up to 145 lb in 2019, and has since gone 3-2.
Danny Chavez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Chavez is coming off a smothering decision loss to Jared Gordon in his most recent match. Chavez struggled to get anything going in that fight as Gordon outlanded him 82-39 in significant strikes and 138-42 in total strikes, while landing 2 of 7 takedowns with over six minutes of control time. Chavez landed his only takedown attempt but never really threatened to win the fight and Gorden easily won a unanimous decision. That loss snapped a four fight winning streak for Chavez, which included three first round KOs just before he joined the UFC.
Six months prior to that loss, Chavez won a decision in his August 2020 UFC debut as he destroyed the lead leg of T.J. Brown, while also mixing in high kicks. A quick counter puncher, Chavez appears to rarely push forward unless it’s to finish a wounded opponent.
Chavez notably had three straight R1 KO wins just before joining the UFC. However, it's worth pointing out that those wins were against unimpressive opponents. Coming into their fights against Chavez, Dylan Cala was 6-2, Felipe Vargas was 4-0, and Leandro Manhaes Paes was 8-8. Two of those guys looked to be fighting up a weight class after normally competing at 135 lb.
Prior to those three knockouts, all seven of his career wins had ended in decisions, as had two of his three career losses. The only time he’s ever been finished was a 2016 R5 Guillotine Choke. Chavez has quick, crisp striking and violent kicks to go along with a solid takedown defense, but hasn’t thrown a ton of volume so far in the UFC as he’s averaged just 2.93 SSL/min.
Fight Prediction:
Chavez will have a 1” height advantage, but Kamaka will have a 2” reach advantage.
These two guys appear somewhat evenly matched, although Kamaka both lands and absorbs much more striking volume with 5.63 SSL/min (#4 on the slate) and 6.26 SSA/min (#3 on the slate). Each of these guys also land about two and half takedowns per 15 minutes, although Chavez’s takedown defense is far superior at 84% compared to just 41% for Kamaka. If the fight stays entirely on the feet, we could see Kamaka outlanding his way to a decision win, but if Chavez can take Kamaka down and control him for periods of time then we expect him to get the nod with the judges. Either way, it’s unlikely this fight ends early as 73% of Chavez’s career fights have gone the distance, as have 75% of Kamaka’s.
Based on our expectation that this fight ends in a decision and it being essentially a coin flip as to who wins, we slightly prefer the wider odds of “Chavez Wins by Decision” at +260 over “Kamaka Wins by Decision” at +180. However, the safest bet is simply betting the fight ends in a decision at -150.
DFS Implications:
Kamaka showed he can score well even in a decision in his August 2020 UFC debut against Tony Kelley, where he landed 114 significant strikes and five takedowns on his way to 115 DraftKings points and 121 points on FanDuel in a high-volume win. He followed that up by showing that he similarly offers a huge ceiling to his opponents, as Jonathan Pearce scored 134 DraftKings points and 142 FanDuel points against him in a R2 KO. However, in a closer fight TJ Brown scored just 79 DraftKings points and 86 points on FanDuel in Kamaka’s most recent decision loss. Had the decision gone Kamaka’s way, as many thought it should have, he would have scored 84 DraftKings points and 81 points on FanDuel. That was a closer back and forth fight with extended periods of control time, and seeing a similar result in this next match up wouldn’t be entirely surprising. With that said, both of these fighters are very reasonably priced so even a semi-decent scoring decision win still has the potential to serve as a value play depending on what the other cheaply priced fighters do. While Kamaka generally makes for pace-up action, Chavez only averages 2.93 SSL/min and only absorbs 4.17 SS/min so something will have to give here. You’ll want some exposure to both sides of this close matchup in case the winner does score better than expected, which is certainly possible, but we wouldn’t go crazy on either guy. The odds imply Kamaka has a 51% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.
Chavez’s low-volume counter punching fighting style makes it harder for him to put up a big DFS score without a finish, but Kamaka generally makes for pace-up fights, which increase the chances for ceiling performances. While Chavez did land three straight R1 knockouts just before joining the UFC, those are the only three finishes of his 11 year pro career. His first seven pro wins all ended in decisions, as have three of his four career losses. Despite waiting until Thursday when the odds had moved close to a pick ‘em to release pricing, FanDuel curiously priced Chavez at just $14, which makes him an interesting value play over there where he should also be able to score from takedowns defended. It’s also possible that Kamaka’s high-volume striking forces a ceiling performance out of Chavez, so we do like this matchup for him from a DFS perspective. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #8
Rafa Garcia
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Garcia showcased his toughness as he took his recent UFC debut on short notice and absorbed everything power puncher Nasrat Haqparast could throw at him as Garcia continued to march forward. While he entered that fight as a +410 underdog, now he interestingly steps into his second UFC fight as a -300 favorite. While he showed he could take a punch, Garcia was outlanded in significant strikes 99-52 and 99-54 in total strikes. He also went 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts and had just 21 seconds of control time, although he was notably going against the super tough 84% takedown defense of Haqparast. Garcia came out behind in striking in all three rounds, but two of the judges still awarded him the first round.
Prior to losing his debut, Garcia had been 11-0 with one KO, seven submissions and three decision wins. However, many of those wins came against questionable competition. Five of his submission wins also notably occurred in his first five pro fights.
Garcia started his career at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since. He has decent striking, but lacks head movement and looks pretty hittable. With that said, he also showed a solid chin in his recent debut. He has averaged a decent number of takedowns when he was fighting on the regional scene, but it remains to be seen how that will transition to the UFC. He went 0 for 3 in his debut, but we’ll give him somewhat of a pass since he was going up against the 84% takedown defense of Haqparast.
Chris Gruetzemacher
6th UFC Fight (2-3)After not fighting for two and a half years from 2018 to 2020 following a combination of injuries including a torn ACL, Gruetzemacher stepped back inside the Octagon last October and looked absolutely terrible as he got pieced up from the start by Alexander Hernandez and then knocked out just 106 seconds into the first round.
Gruetzemacher is now 35 years old and has lost three of his last four fights. He only has two UFC wins, with the first coming in a decision in his 2015 UFC debut on The Ultimate Fighter finale against a fighter who never competed again in the UFC and has since gone 3-3 on the regional scene. His only other UFC win came against a washed up 34-year-old Joe Lauzon who was in his 42nd pro fight and came in having lost three of his last four. That fight ended following the second round from a merciful corner stoppage. In his other three UFC fights, Gruetzemacher has been submitted twice and knocked out once. Both of those submissions came by Rear-Naked Choke and he was also submitted with a Guillotine Choke earlier in his career.
Now 14-4 as a pro, Gruetzemacher has seven KO wins, three by submission and four decisions. All four of his career losses have ended early, with three submissions spread across the first three rounds followed by the recent R1 KO loss. He interestingly leads the slate in significant strikes landed at 7.02 per minute, but that was largely inflated by the 128 he landed against a defenseless Joe Lauzon in just two rounds of action. He’s averaged 5.34 per minute across his other four UFC fights. He also absorbs the 4th most significant strikes on the slate at 5.54 per minute and has notably never attempted a takedown.
Gruetzemacher appeared to go through a tough weight cut for his last fight so it will be important to monitor him closely at weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Gruetzemacher will have a 1” height advantage, but Garcia will have a 2” reach advantage.
After making his UFC debut as the biggest underdog on the card at +410, Garcia now amazingly checks in as the biggest favorite on this slate at -300. That seems a little surprising until you go back and watch Gruetzemacher’s last fight and then everything makes perfect sense. While Garcia is coming off a loss, he still exceeded expectations and actually made that fight somewhat competitive. Then you have Gruetzemacher who looked like he got lost looking for the bathroom and stumbled inside the Octagon. At 35 years old, it’s hard to see Gruetzemacher looking dramatically better here and we expect Garcia to hand him his second straight early loss. Considering Gruetzemacher has been submitted in 3 of his 4 pro losses and Garcia has submitted 7 of his 12 opponents, there’s a good chance this one ends in a submission in the first two rounds. Although based on how poorly Gruetzemacher’s chin and striking defense looked in his last fight, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Garcia knock him out. Either way, we like Garcia to win in the first two rounds.
Our favorite two bets here are Garcia’s R1 and R2 win lines at +340 and +500.
DFS Implications:
While Garcia’s short notice UFC debut did little to justify him being one of the most expensive fighters on the slate from a scoring perspective, as he totaled just 22 DraftKings points and 37 points on FanDuel, he now gets a much easier matchup and time to prepare for the fight. In Gruetzemacher’s three UFC losses, which all came early, his opponents have put up DK/FD scores of 112/129, 101/118, and 98/105. Eight of Garcia’s 11 career wins have come early, and while there’s still some reason to question his ability to finish opponents at the UFC level, he has shown earlier in his career that he can get the job done. We expect Garcia to mix in more grappling here, which has the potential to prop up his DraftKings score if the fight goes longer than expected. The odds imply Garcia has a slate-leading 72% chance to win, a 38% chance to get a finish and a 16% chance it comes in R1.
While Gruetzemacher has landed over 100 significant strikes twice in his five UFC fights, he has yet to land a knockdown, takedown, reversal or submission attempt, so he’s been entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well. Garcia showed a chin in his last fight, which reduces Gruetzemacher’s chances to land a surprise KO here. Further reducing those odds, Gruetzemacher’s only TKO win in the last nine years came in a 2018 corner stoppage against a washed up journeyman. The only two reasons we see to play Gruetzemacher are that he’ll be very low owned and he’s going against a fighter who despite being the biggest favorite on the slate is 0-1 in the UFC and unproven at this level. The odds imply Gruetzemacher has a slate-low 28% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 5% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #7
Melsik Baghdasaryan
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off the first fight of his career to last longer than 86 seconds, Baghdasaryan won a decision on DWCS last September, but was still awarded a UFC contract based on his explosive potential. Baghdasaryan had finished his previous four opponents in a combined 62 seconds with ridiculous fight times of 14, 32, 9 and 7 seconds. So unsurprisingly he came into his DWCS fight looking for another quick finish. His opponent, Dennis Buzukja, came in with a 5-1 pro record having never been finished and was able to absorb a ton of violent shots to force Baghdasaryan into the second round for the first time in his career. He predictably began to slow down at that point after landing 44 significant strikes in round one with a crazy 73% accuracy rate. After appearing to gas and then lose the second round, Baghdasaryan bounced back in the third round and regained his striking lead, however he did almost get Armbarred at one point and his grappling definitely looks like a liability. Baghdasaryan finished ahead in significant strikes 102-57 and in total strikes 110-71. He missed on both of his takedown attempts but was able to defend six of Buzukja’s eight attempts.
A southpaw kickboxer, Baghdasaryan is now 5-1 in his MMA career and on a five fight winning streak and he’s regularly trained with Ronda Rousey and Edmen Shahbazyan. The only loss of his career came in a 2014 R1 Armbar Submission in his first pro fight. Following the loss he said fuck grappling and switched to boxing and kickboxing from 2015 to 2018. However, following a 2018 kickboxing decision loss in a KJP Championship fight, Baghdasaryan decided to return to MMA in 2019 and proceeded to rattle off four straight lightning fast first round finishes over a six month span before being invited onto DWCS a year later. He also had two fights canceled leading up to his DWCS match hence the layoff. It’s now been almost 11 months since he last fought as he steps into his UFC debut and almost two years since his string of quick finishes.
One thing to consider with his impressive recent record is that his six pro fights have come against opponents who entered with records of 2-4 (L), 0-0, 3-5, 0-0, 4-3 and 4-1. As he begins to face tougher competition, his non-existent grappling is sure to be tested more.
Collin Anglin
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Also coming off a September 2020 DWCS decision win that was still enough to garner a UFC contract, Anglin defeated a similar style of fighter to Baghdasaryan in his last fight, in one-dimensional striker Muhammadjon Naimov. Anglin started slow in that fight, but turned it on in the second round and never looked back as he dominated the remainder of the fight. With a wrestling background, he showed that he can compete both on the feet and the mat, although he’s not really dominant at either. After getting outlanded in the first round 23-8 in significant strikes, Anglin bounced back to lead in the next two rounds 27-19 and 53-10 to finish ahead 88-52 in significant strikes and 107-73 in total strikes. He also landed three takedowns on four attempts with over four and a half minutes of control time, while stuffing all four of his opponents attempts. Both fighters looked durable in that matchup so it’s not surprising that it went the distance, but Anglin very nearly finished it in the third round at multiple points. Anglin apparently trains out of Denver at altitude and it showed in his conditioning as he turned it on late.
His only career loss came in a 2018 decision in his second pro fight and since then he’s won seven straight. Prior to his recent decision win, he had landed four straight KOs in the first nine minutes of fights, with three R2 KOs and one 14 second R1 knockout. Prior to the string of knockouts, he had fought to three straight decisions after landing a “Submission by Punches” in his 2017 pro debut.
Similar to Baghdasaryan, Anglin hasn’t been facing the toughest competition as his opponents have entered with records of 1-1, 3-4 (L), 0-0, 4-4, 5-3, 20-11, 1-2, 1-1, 5-0 and 5-1.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Anglin will have a 1” reach advantage.
Baghdasaryan is the far more explosive of these two early on in fights, but Anglin has a much more well rounded skill set and also far better cardio. So for Baghdasaryan to win he’ll likely need to land another first round knockout, while Anglin will be in great shape if he can simply survive to see the second round. With two guys both making their UFC debuts, there’s always some added uncertainty, but if Anglin can survive the first round we like his chances to either finish the fight in the later rounds or win a decision.
Our favorite bets here are “Baghdasaryan Wins by R1 KO” at +750, “Anglin ITD” at +400, “Anglin R2 Win” at +1200 and “Under 2.5 Rounds” at +125.
DFS Implications:
Baghdasaryan appears to be a one-dimensional R1 KO or bust kickboxer who is absolutely explosive out of the gate but lacks the cardio to be dangerous beyond the first round. Nevertheless, with four of his five career wins coming by KO in 32 seconds or less, Baghdasaryan is a monster early in fights and looks to make short work of all his opponents. If he can avoid getting tied up and can stay off the mat, he has a great chance to land a first round finish and is always a strong candidate for the quick win bonus on DraftKings as his last four finishes only took 62 seconds combined. However, Baghdasaryan is a liability on the ground and if he gets taken down he’ll be in trouble. He did show a decent takedown defense in his last fight as he stopped 6 of his opponents 8 attempts, but he also nearly got Armbarred in the third round, which is also how he suffered his only career loss back in 2014. His non-existent grappling makes him a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, and in his recent decision win he still scored 99 FanDuel points, but just 79 DraftKings points. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.
Anglin’s wrestling background should give him a solid chance to pull off the upset here. He comes in on a seven fight winning streak and while he looks to be outgunned on the feet, if he can get this fight to the mat he should be able to wear Baghdasaryan out and potentially land a finish. He also has the potential to grind out a decision with a combination of grappling and striking that could return value at his discounted price tag on both sites. His recent decision win on DWCS would have been good for 92 DraftKings points and 103 points on FanDuel. With a strong chance to score well with either a finish or in a decision, Anglin looks like a solid underdog play that you’ll want to be over the field on. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #6
Bryan Barberena
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Barberena is coming off a decision win against no-longer-in-the-UFC Anthony Ivy, where Barberena saw an insane 24 takedowns attempts come his way, which he was able to successfully defend 19 of. Barberena finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 63-36 and in total strikes 175-54 as he knock knocked the side of Ivy’s head for 15 minutes while Ivy relentlessly attempted takedowns. Barberena attempted and failed on one takedown of his own, but did finish with two official submission attempts. Ivy led in control time 5:50-1:57, although most of that time was spent simply pushing Barberena against the cage as he attempted takedowns. Despite the win, we thought Barberena looked terrible compared to his past fights. He looked significantly heavier as he plodded around the cage and lacked any sort of bounce in his step. He also appeared to have lost some of his power and overall it was not at all encouraging for his prospects moving forward.
Furthermore, Ivy was notably knocked out in the first round of both his fight prior to facing Barberena and his most recent fight immediately after, which took place outside of the UFC after Ivy was cut following the loss to Barberena. Ivy’s earlier two career losses also both ended in the first round, so out of Ivy’s five career losses, the only person who was unable to finish him in the first round (or at all) was Bryan “Womp Womp” Barberena.
Prior to that fight, Barberena notably underwent back surgery, which resulted in a 15 month layoff. Leading up to the surgery he had lost two fights in a row and four of his last six. However, in fairness those losses came against Randy Brown, Vincente Luque, Leon Edwards and Colby Covington. He fought Covington and Edwards to decisions while Luque and Brown both knocked him out in the third round in consecutive 2019 fights.
Now 15-7 as a pro, 12 of Barberena’s wins have come early with 10 KOs and 2 submissions. His last two finishes both ended in R1 KOs. Other than his two recent R3 KO losses, Barberena has only been finished early one other time in his career, which was from a R3 Armbar in his third pro fight back in 2010. So all three of his early losses have occurred in the third round. His other four career losses all ended in decisions.
His fight against Luque set a UFC record for the most significant strikes landed in a three round Welterweight fight with the two fighters landing an absurd 169 and 163 respectively. Luque ended up knocking Barberena out with 6 seconds to go in a very close fight.
Barberena started out in the UFC at 155 lb before moving up to 170 lb in his third UFC fight. He had been scheduled to face Daniel Rodriguez back in November 2020, but instead underwent an “emergency exploratory laparotomy due to internal bleeding from a couple ruptured arteries in his omentum,” which doesn’t sound great. With his last fight bookended by a pair of surgeries and looking pretty bad in the only time he actually did make it inside the Octagon in the last two years, it’s hard to be optimistic about Barberena moving forward. The one reason for hope is that his next opponent has been knocked out in 48 seconds or less in two of his last three fights. So he’s got that going for him.
Jason Witt
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Looking to bounce back from yet another early loss, Witt lost his last fight by R1 murder just 16 seconds in at the hands of Matthew Semelsberger. Witt foolishly started the fight by throwing multiple leg strikes instead of immediately shooting for a takedown and was quickly made to pay for it.
Prior to that KO loss, Witt landed a second round submission win over a terrible Cole Williams, who went 0-2 in UFC with a pair of submission losses and missed weight by five pounds TWICE before being released. Eight seconds into the first round Witt grabbed a single-leg, pushed Williams up against the cage, converted it to a double and then picked Williams up and slammed him. Once on the ground, he immediately took Williams’ back and easily controlled him for the duration of the round while advancing his position and laying heavy ground and pound. Witt also opened up a big cut on Williams from a slicing elbow with a minute left in the round. Witt didn’t immediately shoot for a takedown in the second round, and showed some level of patience before finding an opening 40 seconds in. He showcased his strength, picking up Williams and carrying him across the Octagon over to his corner before slamming him once again. With James Krause in his corner calmly directing the action, Witt was never in any danger in this match and submitted Williams two minutes into the second round.
Witt made his ultra short notice UFC debut in June 2020 against Takashi Sato, but it didn’t last long as Sato finished him quickly with a 48 second R1 KO. So all three of Witt’s UFC fights have ended in the first round and a half and his two losses have both come in under a minute.
Before he joined the UFC, Witt had been on a four fight winning streak and had won 9 of his previous 10 fights. He won three straight decisions leading up to his UFC debut, which after watching his three UFC fights you’re left wondering...how did they go three rounds? Amazingly, seven of his most recent eight fights before joining the UFC made it to the third round with five going the distance. The one fight that ended prior to the third round over that stretch was a 2018 R2 KO loss.
In his 25 pro fights, he has three KO wins, eight submission victories and six wins by decision. While his last two submission wins have come in the later two rounds, the first six submission wins of his career all came in R1. All seven of his career losses have come early with five KOs and two submissions, with six of those coming in the first two rounds.
One interesting stat that we noticed is that Witt has followed up all six of his previous losses with finishes of his own. Here are the results from his fights immediately following early losses: R1 Rear-Naked Choke Win, R1 Rear-Naked Choke Win, R1 Rear-Naked Choke Win, R1 Rear-Naked Choke Win, R3 Rear-Naked Choke Win and R2 Arm-Triangle Choke Win. So six of his eight career submission wins have notably come immediately following an early loss and now he’s coming off another early loss.
Fight Prediction:
Barberena will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
Witt enters this fight in a similar position as Barberena’s last opponent Anthony Ivy. Both guys are one-dimensional grapplers coming off very quick first round knockouts who predictably will sell out to look for takedowns. Barberena’s 60% career takedown defense held up for the most part against Ivy as he stopped 19 of Ivy’s 24 takedown attempts (76%). Witt has also been knocked out in his last four losses and all seven of his career losses have ended early, so if Barberena has anything left in the tank this would be a great time to show it. On the other side of things, it will be interesting to see if Witt can keep his six-time streak alive of following up early losses with submission wins. At 1-2 in the UFC, he’s also likely fighting for his job and a second contract, and will need a big performance to earn one. While both of these two fighters looked bad in their most recent fights, Witt has shown time and time again he can bounce back from being finished with laser-like focus on getting fights to the mat. On the other side of things, Barberena looked worn down and slow in his last fight, which could be tougher to come back from. It also doesn’t help that he had to undergo yet another surgery since that last match and his body appears to be giving out on him. While Barberena should theoretically be able to knock Witt out, we don’t have much confidence in either one of these two and think Witt has a solid chance to get him down and submit him. Either way, expect whoever loses this fight to look dreadful and for the winner to likely finish things in the first round and a half.
Our favorite four bets here are “Barberena Wins by R1 KO” at +360, “Witt Wins by Submission” at +700, “Witt Wins by R1 Submission” at +1700 and “Witt Wins by R2 Submission” at +2300.
DFS Implications:
Barberena’s recent 15 minute takedown defense seminar scored just 81 DraftKings points but put up a whopping 125 points on Fanduel. His only other two wins in the last five years both came via R1 KO and were good for DK/FD totals of 120/135 and 111/129. Overall he looks like a better FanDuel play than on DraftKings, but if he lands another first round finish he should end up in winning lineups on both sites. While this looks like a great matchup to achieve just that, Barberena notably looked to be slowing down a ton in his last fight following back surgery and a 15 month layoff. Since that plodding decision win, he had to drop out of another fight as he underwent emergency surgery, further making you wonder just how much tread he has left on the tires. The oddsmakers still think he has a good chance to get an early win—or at least they think the public thinks that, as they’ve installed Barberena as the biggest favorite on the slate to get a finish. That makes some sense considering Witt hasn’t made it past the opening credits in his last two losses, but fails to account for how bad Barberena has looked. With that said, in Witt’s two losses his opponents put up DK/FD scores of 133/126 and 126/114, so you’ll want exposure to both sides here. The odds imply Barberena has a 70% chance to win, a 45% chance to get a finish and an 18% chance it comes in R1.
Witt scored 105 DraftKings points and 104 FanDuel points in his lone R2 submission UFC win and has done nothing but produce winning scores for both himself and his opponents since joining the organization. If this fight somehow makes it past the second round or even into a decision, Witt’s grappling heavy style will score better on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. However, as the cheapest fighter on DraftKings and the second cheapest on FanDuel, it’s hard to see Witt not ending up in winning lineups if he wins this fight. He bounced back from all six of his previous early losses with submission wins immediately afterwards, so it will be interesting to see if he can extend that streak to seven. For the record, we have zero confidence in his chin and if Barberena is able to land anything clean it would be surprising if Witt didn’t immediately flatline. With that said, Barberena looked slow and worn down in his last fight and we’re not sure how much he has left at this point. The odds imply Witt has a 30% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #5
Ryan Benoit
9th UFC Fight (3-5)This fight had been scheduled for May 8th, but Benoit had such a rough weigh-in that the fight was canceled.
After Benoit’s first three UFC fights all ended in the first two rounds, his most recent five have all made it to round three, with four ending in close decisions—three split and one unanimous 28-29. He’s lost the last three of those four decisions and his only win since July 2016 was a 2017 R3 KO. While he’s never been knocked out in 17 pro fights, he has been submitted twice—in the second round of his 2013 UFC debut and then in the first round of his third UFC fight back in 2015. In between those two submission losses, Benoit knocked out Sergio Pettis in the second round of a 2015 match.
As he alternated wins and losses for most of his UFC career, Benoit bounced back from his second submission loss to win a split decision, before losing a split decision to Brandon Moreno in his next fight. Then he landed a 2017 R3 KO in his most recent win before taking off all of 2018 and most of 2019, before returning in December 2019 after 25 months away. Upon his return, he fought up a weight class at 135 lb against Heili Alateng and lost another split decision. Benoit outlanded Alateng 68-47 in significant strikes and 84-72 in total strikes, but was taken down four times on 13 attempts while failing on his only takedown attempt. While he’s a decent striker, those 68 significant strikes landed against Alateng set a career high for Benoit and he’s never been a high-volume striker.
Most recently, we saw Benoit take on Tim Elliot in another close decision. Elliot came out ahead in significant strikes 67-55 and total strikes 90-64, but went just 1 for 13 on his takedown attempts as Benoit did a good job of staying on his feet. Benoit went 1 for 2 on his own takedowns, which marked the first time he had attempted more than one takedown in any of his UFC matches. That was also just the second time he had landed a takedown since joining the organization, as he’s now gone 2 for 8 in his career.
Prior to losing his last two fights, Benoit had alternated wins and losses for 10 straight fights going back to before he joined the UFC. So generally he has been good about bouncing back from losses. Although lately he’s been involved in several close decisions that haven’t gone his way. While Benoit has almost exclusively fought to decisions over the last five years, interestingly 9 of his 10 career wins have come early, including eight KOs and one submission. All seven of his pro wins prior to joining the UFC also came early, including five in the first round.
Zarrukh Adashev
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)While Adashev’s short notice UFC debut only lasted 32 seconds before he was put to bed by Tyson Nam, he went the full 15 minutes in his most recent match, against an even more dangerous striker in Su Mudaerji. What we expected to be an execution, turned into a low-volume kickboxing match, with Mudaerji outlanding Adashev 50-28 in total strikes. Mudaerji was mostly content with using his huge reach advantage to pick Adashev apart from distance, while Adashev was constantly swinging wild looping power shots that rarely landed. It sounded like Adashev’s corner was telling him to throw more straight punches and the home run shots were never going to land, but he didn’t appear to take their advice as he put everything he had into every punch. It will be interesting to see how or if he adjusts for this next fight.
Four of Adashev’s six pro fights have ended early, with a pair of first round losses (1 KO & 1 Submission) and two KOs to his name. The two KO victories came in Bellator, but were against generic opponents who entered with records of 0-1 and 3-1. While Adashev only has six pro fights on his record, he does have a background in kickboxing to draw from on what we expect to play out as a striking battle here.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5”, but Benoit will have a 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as a striking battle and it would be surprising to see much if any time spent on the mat. With both guys coming off a pair of losses and potentially fighting for their jobs, it will be interesting to see if they come out desperate or cautious. If they both come out desperate for not just a win, but also to prove they belong in the UFC, we could see a stand-up brawl. However, if one or both fighters approach this with their focus set on not suffering a third straight loss, then we’ll likely see a conservative low-volume chess match. While we think there’s a small chance both guys just let it rip, more likely the fight will be made up of small striking bursts spaced out over the course of multiple rounds. Benoit has a better chance than Adashev to land a KO, but more likely this fight ends in a decision.
We don’t love the value in the “safer” options here so we’re taking a few stabs at “Benoit Wins by KO” at +500, “Benoit Wins by R2 KO” at +1800, “Benoit Wins by R3 KO” and “Fight Ends in KO” at +230. Just keep in mind this fight most likely goes the distance so it’s also worth considering “Adashev Wins by Decision” at +260.
DFS Implications:
The last time these two were scheduled to fight before it got canceled Benoit was priced at $8,700/$18 and Adashev was $7,500/$13. Now they check in at $8,300/$15 and $7,900/$14.
Both of these fighters are low-volume one-dimensional strikers who appear entirely reliant on landing a KO to score well based on their past volume and lack of grappling. They each have the striking ability to take part in a brawl, but it would require them both to throw caution to the wind and just go for it out of pure desperation as each looks to snap a two fight losing streak. There’s certainly a world where that happens, but it would go against what we’ve seen from them in the past.
It would be entirely understandable for Benoit to push harder for the finish after coming up short in his last three decisions, which were all very close, including two of them that were split. With four of his last five fights going the distance and one of the more pathetic DraftKings score sheets you’ll ever see (29, 30, 73, 20, 58, 0, 97, 23), it’s easy to overlook the fact that 9 of his 10 career wins have come early and he could be fighting to keep his job. Benoit looks like the type of gross DFS play that will go super low owned, but has the potential to break the slate. He also clearly has a much better chance of putting up another dud, which is why we expect his ownership to be so low. Benoit scored just 73 DraftKings points in his last finish, which came in round three and likely indicates he’ll need a finish in the first two rounds to return value. Even then, his only other early win in the UFC was an early R2 KO that scored just 97 DraftKings points. Don’t get us wrong, Benoit is a super thin high-risk play, but those are often the keys to winning tournaments. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance to end it in R1.
Adashev seemed somewhat willing to partake in a brawl at times in his last fight but Mudaerji was just too good at controlling the distance to allow that to happen. Adashev was constantly throwing up hail mary shots, but against a fighter like Mudaerji, those were especially unlikely to land. While Benoit has never been knocked out in his career, if Adashev can actually connect on one of those lottery tickets he keeps throwing out, he certainly has the potential to land a KO. At his price, a finish at any point would likely be enough for him to be useful in DFS. He’s kind of like a cheaper, wilder, less experienced version of Benoit and both guys are desperate for a win to stick around much longer in the UFC. The odds imply Adashev has a 44% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it happens in R1.
Fight #4
Jared Gooden
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Stepping into this fight on just a few days’ notice after Mounir Lazzez withdrew due to visa issues, Gooden lost both of his first two UFC fights in decisions. He made his debut in November 2020 and lost an ultra high-volume striking battle against a 38-year-old Alan Jouban, who had lost 3 of his previous four fights and then retired afterwards. Jouban finished ahead in significant strikes 168-100 and in total strikes almost the same at 169-101. That’s an average of 11.27 SSL/min for Jouban and 6.67/min for Gooden. Jouban missed on his only takedown attempt, while Gooden landed his only attempt. Jouban looked very close to ending the fight in the second round as he had Gooden rocked, but Gooden was able to survive and recover despite Jouban pouring it on. Jouban ended the third round with a Guillotine Choke attempt that looked very close to stopping things but Gooden was saved by the bell. Jouban finished his UFC career with 13 fights under his belt, but amazingly landed 25% of his total career significant strikes in that one fight against Gooden.
Following the loss in his debut, Gooden took on Abubakar Nurmagomedov, who was also coming off a loss in his UFC debut as well as a 16 month layoff. In a fight that stayed more on the feet than most people expected going in, Nurmagomedov landed just 1 of his 5 takedown attempts with over four minutes of control time, but outlanded Gooden 60-43 in significant strikes, while Gooden led 111-100 in total strikes.
Prior to joining the UFC, Gooden had finished three straight opponents in the first two rounds with a pair of submissions followed by a KO. And his most recent five pre-UFC fights all ended early, with him winning four of those. He’s now 17-6 as a pro, with 13 of those wins coming early, including seven KOs and six submissions. However, only three of those 13 finishes occurred in the first round, while six were in R2 and four came in R3. Five of his six career losses have ended in decisions and he’s only ever been finished once, which came in a 2019 53 second R1 KO, where he was absolutely dominated by a larger opponent as he fought up a weight class for the first time during a three fight stretch up at 185 lb from 2019 to 2020. Gooden dropped back down to 170 lb one fight before joining the UFC.
Gooden looks extremely hittable on tape and the numbers agree as he checks in with the highest average number of significant strikes absorbed on the slate at 7.6/min. He also lands above average volume himself with 4.77 SSL/min (8th most on the slate). He’s stopped 5 of the 6 takedowns attempted against him so far in the UFC, while landing his only attempt.
It will be important to monitor Gooden at weigh-ins as he initially missed weight for his last fight, coming in a half pound over the limit, but was able to hit the mark with the extra allotted hour to reweigh. UPDATE: Gooden was the second to last fighter to weigh in, but did hit the mark successfully.
Niklas Stolze
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After originally preparing for one striker in Lazzez, now Stolze will get a different striker in Gooden. Stolze is almost exactly a year removed from a decision loss in his UFC debut against tough decision machine Ramazan Emeev, but had previously won four in a row with three of those coming early. Those finishes definitely didn’t come against the toughest competition, however. The first of the three was against an opponent who came in 2-3 in his last five fights and is now 7-9 as a pro following the loss. The second was against a fighter who has now lost four straight fights and the third was against a guy who is now 4-3 in his last seven but was still clearly the toughest of the bunch.
In his low-volume grappling heavy UFC debut decision loss, Stolze squeaked ahead in significant strikes 30-29, but trailed in total strikes 67-41. Emeev went 4 for 12 on takedowns, while Stolze landed his only attempt. Emeev also dominated control time 6:50-0:21 and finished with two submission attempts as he cruised to a unanimous decision victory.
Stolze is now 5-3 in his last eight fights, with five of those ending in decisions. His overall pro record sits at 12-4, with nine of those wins coming early, including four KOs and five submissions—all in the first two rounds. However, six of those nine finishes came in his first eight pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 1-2, 1-3, 0-2, 6-3 and 5-3. Only 4 of his 9 career finishes have come against fighters with winning records. Also notable, four of his last five finishes have come by submission, spread evenly across the first two rounds. On the other side of things, no one has been able to finish him and all four of Stolze’s pro losses have ended in decisions.
Stolze is an average talent with a decently well rounded game but is unspectacular at anything. His patient striking doesn’t lend itself to high striking totals and he hasn’t looked overly aggressive at getting fights to the mat. He does have decent submission skills, which is really what he’s best at.
Fight Prediction:
Stolze will have a 1” height advantage, but Gooden will have a 3” reach advantage.
Stolze has just one knockout win in his last 11 fights, but has four submission wins over that period. Gooden has notably never been submitted and has only been knocked out once in his career, which came when he was fighting up a weight class. Also, Gooden is actually a BJJ brown belt, while Stolze is just a purple belt so there’s reason to believe Gooden will be able to hold his own in the grappling. He’s shown a solid 83% takedown defense so far in the UFC, having only been taken down once on six attempts. While Gooden has proven he’s extremely hittable, Stolze is not really an overpowering striker but does throw decent kicks. Stolze will likely look to test Gooden’s grappling, which isn’t the optimal strategy for defeating Gooden. We expect that Stolze had been preparing a grappling heavy approach when he was scheduled to face Lazzez and with the opponent switch occurring on such short notice he’s unlikely to make any major changes against another striker in Gooden. That will likely slow down the pace of this fight and make it more likely to end in a decision. Neither one of these two have won a fight in the UFC, but Stolze remains more of an unknown as we’ve now seen Gooden fight/lose twice, whereas Stolze only took part in a grappling-heavy decision and we’ve yet to see how his striking measures up at this level. That leaves us with a wider range of potential outcomes here, but we expect this to go the distance and we still give the slight edge to Stolze. However, if he starts slow after a year away, Gooden could absolutely win this fight in a close decision if he can keep it standing and lead in strikes.
DFS Implications:
Stolze opened the week as a +165 underdog against the -200 favorite Lazzez, but then Lazzez dropped out and Gooden stepped in. The new odds pegged Stolze as a -200 favorite, but his DraftKings price had already been set in stone at just $7,000. So while he would be priced around $8,800-$9,000 if the DraftKings pricing were released today, instead he can be had for 2k less than that. Anyone that has been playing MMA DFS for a while has seen this scenario pop up every once in a while, although generally it’s been either a favorite being underpriced as they become a bigger favorite after the original underdog drops out, or a slight underdog becoming a favorite when the favorite drops out. Rarely do we get a large favorite dropping out and then a big underdog flips to a big favorite at a massive mispricing. The closest comparison we have is when Alex Caceres had been scheduled to face Giga Chikadze on August 29th 2020. Chikadze dropped out after DraftKings pricing had already been released and Austin Springer stepped into his UFC debut on short notice. Caceres was priced at just $7,400 as he was originally a sizable underdog, but then flipped to a -205 favorite and ended up being 55% owned on DraftKings due to his massive mispricing. Naturally he then proceeded to land a R1 finish for the first time in his last 25 fights and completely screwed anyone that tried to take a contrarian stand, but the point is he was 55% owned.
Other similar examples include when Jamall Emmers went from being a slight dog against Timur Valiev priced at $7,800 to a massive favorite against Vince Cachero and ended up 66% owned, although that slate was weird because we also had Johnny Munoz and Nate Maness both priced at $7,200 after Ray Borg dropped out. That fight was a pick ‘em with two underpriced fighters and we saw Munoz carry 31% ownership and Maness 37%. Emmers put up a huge score and once again paid off the two-thirds of the field that played him while Munoz/Maness ended in a low-volume, low-scoring decision and was left out of winning lineups despite their cheap price tags. Had it not been for Emmers being so highly owned at just $7,800, Munoz and Maness likely would have been owned at a much higher rate. Either way that was a good comparison to this slate in the sense that we had two guys priced in the low 7k’s and neither ended up in the optimal line as the winner scored just 49.5 DraftKings points.
Another example is when Ode’ Osbourne had been scheduled to face Denys Bondar, who then dropped out and Jerome Rivera stepped in. Osbourne was originally a +150 underdog priced at $7,800, but flipped to a -200 favorite. Interestingly Osbourne’s ownership ended up at “just” 38%. While he wasn’t as good of a value as Stolze is on this slate, Osbourne was in somewhat of a similar situation coming off a loss in his UFC debut and installed as a -200 favorite against his new opponent. So that shows that there is a slight chance Stolze could be somewhat lower owned than he’s currently projected, although that Osbourne slate had a ton of mid-priced value that left you less reliant on playing Osbourne based on his price. We think that’s more of an outlier than a trend, but we’ll find out Saturday. We could point to 10 other instances of boosted ownership from fighter replacement mispricing, but you get the idea, mispricing always results in inflated ownership.
So there are two high-risk, high-reward paths to gain massive leverage on the field here. The first option is to fade the fight entirely as these two fighters project for over 75% combined ownership. For that strategy to pay off, you’ll need both the winner of this fight to put up a low score and for multiple other underdogs on the card to win and outscore them. If that happens, it will automatically put your scoring ceiling above three quarters of the field and put you in the perfect position to take down tournaments. The other option is to play Gooden, who if he wins has a great chance to end up in the optimal, while simultaneously eliminating the 50%+ of the field that played Stolze. Ideally you want to put yourself in a position to benefit from either of those leverage opportunities, which means going well under the field on Stolze, as hard as that may be to stomach when building lineups.
Stolze scored just 20 DraftKings points and 48 FanDuel points as he lost a decision in his July 2020 UFC debut. So even if the decision had gone his way, that still would have been good for just 50 and 68 points respectively. Obviously a win likely would have included some degree of increased output, but the point remains that he didn’t do a whole lot in the fight to score points. Gooden’s first two UFC opponents put up DK/FD totals of 103/134 and 75/62. The second set of scores notably came against a grappler in Abubakar Nurmagomedov, and is probably more indicative of how Stolze would score in a decision opposed to the striking explosion that Alan Jouban put on. We could see Stolze spending periods of time in this fight looking for takedowns while Gooden successfully defends them and milks time off the clock. While that would boost Stolze’s DraftKings score to some extent based on control time, he’ll struggle to put up a good grappling based score without landing many takedowns. Gooden has shown a solid 83% takedown defense so far in the UFC, so as long as that holds up it should contribute to keeping Stolze’s score down. Stolze is a patient striker who’s less likely than most to fully take advantage of Gooden’s 7.02 average number of significant strikes absorbed per minute, so if he can’t get anything going with his grappling then we could be looking at a lower volume decision with each fighter cautiously attempting to notch their first UFC win. That’s more of a hypothetical than a prediction, but it’s certainly very possible. The odds imply Stolze has a 64% chance to win. A 23% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.
If Gooden can prevent Stolze from getting the fight to the ground and make even marginal improvements to his striking defense, then he can win this fight. While he has a history of landing finishes, Stolze has never been finished himself and seeing this fight end in a decision is the most likely outcome. Gooden will have a tough time putting up a big DraftKings score in a decision win, but could score better on FanDuel through takedowns defended. He could also serve as a value play at his cheap price tag on both sites with even a half decent score depending on what the other dogs end up doing. But in the end, the primary reason to like Gooden here is as a leverage play on DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, an 18% chance it comes early and an 8% chance it happens in R1.
Fight #3
Cheyanne Buys
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a smothering decision loss against Montserrat Ruiz in her UFC debut, Buys has now fought to six straight decisions. In that recent debut, Buys came out ahead in significant strikes 31-15, but was outlanded in total strikes 136-49 as Montserrat landed 4 of 5 takedowns and notched nearly 10 minutes of control time along with a pair of submission attempts.
Buys punched her ticket to the UFC with a unanimous 30-27 decision win on DWCS in August 2020. Buys led in significant strikes 92-35 and in total strikes 103-53 with over eight minutes of control time. She failed on both of her takedown attempts, but also negated all five of her opponents attempts.
Buys appears to fight on pure aggression and definitely has a bit of a crazy side to her. During her DWCS fight, Buys aggressively barked at her grounded opponent to “Get the fuck up.” Later in the fight she verbally reminded herself that she can’t headbutt and after the fight she called Dana White out for not responding to her on Instagram after she’s been DM’ing him for “two years” and then took his phone out of his hands and appeared to follow herself with it. Then after she got smothered in her UFC debut she screamed at her opponent “I’ll follow you home bitch!” So there’s never a dull moment with her.
Now 5-2 as a pro, all of Buys’ fights but one have gone the distance, with the once exception coming in the third round of her pro debut against a fighter competing professionally for the first and only time. Buys certainly hasn’t faced the toughest competition as her pre-UFC opponents entered her fights with records of 0-0, 1-0 (L), 3-0, 6-4, 0-2 and 4-1.
Gloria De Paula
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Similar to Buys, De Paula lost a grappling heavy decision in her recent UFC debut and showed that while she’s a solid striker, she’s essentially helpless off her back. Jinh Yu Frey, a former Atomweight, wasted no time taking the fight to the mat as she grounded De Paula just 15 seconds into the first round. De Paula was unable to do anything from her back and spent the rest of the round with Frey on top of her. The second round surprisingly played out entirely on the feet and De Paula won the round, but then Frey immediately returned the fight to the mat in the third round and again controlled De Paula for the entire round as she cruised to a unanimous 29-28 decision win. De Paula actually finished slightly ahead in significant strikes 31-24 and in total strikes 51-50, but Frey landed two of her three takedown attempts and amassed over nine and half minutes of control time with two official submission attempts. Prior to that win, Frey was 0-2 in the UFC and had lost 3 of her last 4 fights. De Paula showed a massive hole in her game as she was dominated on the ground by a fighter in Frey who has average at best grappling skills. That was De Paula’s second straight fight to go the distance and the fourth in her last five.
In her previous DWCS match, De Paula outlanded her opponent 69-12 in significant strikes and accrued nearly eight minutes of control time. She was going against a Judo specialist, so there was little chance it would turn into a brawl. Gloria successfully defended 9 of 11 takedown attempts and looked great on the feet, but did not attempt a takedown of her own. She also went for an extended submission attempt in the first round, which limited the striking potential early on.
De Paula is the girlfriend and training partner of Mayra Bueno Silva and trains out of Chute Boxe in Brazil alongside fighters like Charles Oliveira and Thomas Almeida in addition to Bueno Silva. So it’s not surprising she has solid striking but her grappling needs a lot of work. She only turned pro back in 2017 and has just eight fights on her record (5-3) with three wins by KO and two by decision. She’s never been finished, with all three of her career losses going the distance. Both of her earlier career losses came against opponents who have since fought in the UFC.
Looking more closely at De Paula’s three career knockout wins, her first career KO came at the end of the first round in her July 2017 pro debut against a fighter who entered 0-3, and who’s now 0-6. Her second career KO came late in the third round of a 2018 match against a fighter making her pro debut who’s now 3-2. Her third career KO was also at the end of R3, this time against a 3-0 fighter, who hasn’t fought since the 2019 loss. So De Paula’s last seven fights have all made it to the third round, with five of those going the distance.
Gloria looks like a solid striker, who throws heavy straight punches that maximize her reach. She also is great at throwing knees to the body in the clinch. However, she’ll need to make serious improvements to her defensive grappling if she wants to hang around the UFC for long.
Fight Prediction:
De Paula will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
De Paula is coming off a grappling-heavy loss against Jinh Yu Frey, who trained with Fortis MMA leading up to that fight, which is the same team Buys trains with. As the Fortis MMA team again prepares to take on De Paula, it will be interesting to see how much of the game plan will continue to be centered around putting De Paula on her back in this fight. It seems like Buys would much prefer to keep the fight standing, but if it isn’t going her way on the feet they have likely prepared a grappling centric plan b. That will just give Buys a safety net in this matchup, as we’re still expecting these two to duke it out on the feet. In their respective debuts, neither one of them was really able to showcase what got them to the UFC, they’re striking, so they are both likely eager to put on a strong striking performance. We expect Buys to throw more volume, but we give the power advantage to De Paula. And while neither one of these two are known for their grappling, Buys also looks to be a little better off her back, although that’s not saying much. That will likely leave De Paula more reliant on landing a finish to win this fight, as Buys will likely come out ahead in total strikes and potentially in takedowns as well. With that said, De Paula will have a 4” reach advantage that she maximizes well with hard straight punches, so if she can effectively control the distance it’s possible she can slow Buys’ pace down. Either way, we’re expecting an exciting uptempo striking battle here with the potential it turns into the Fight of the Night. We’ll say Buys wins this is a decision.
You can consider Buys’ -176 moneyline or +105 decision line as the safe plays here, but we also like taking a few stabs at “De Paula Wins by KO” at +1000, “De Paula Wins by R3 KO” at +4200, and “Fight Ends in R3” at +1200.
DFS Implications:
Both of these ladies are solid strikers who weren’t able to really show off their talent in their respective debuts as they were both smothered on the mat. That should leave them both chomping at the bit to show they belong and avoid the dreaded 0-2 start to their young UFC careers. You can basically throw out their career average striking numbers as they’re based off of lopsided grappling heavy losses in their debuts, where they were both controlled for over nine and half minutes, in addition to DWCS matches against another set of grapplers where Buys and De Paula both finished with almost exactly eight minutes of control time. We’re expecting to see far more fighting in open space in this one.
While it’s useless to look at the results of Buys’ frustrating UFC debut as a measuring stick for how we can expect her to score here in a striking battle, we can look back at her DWCS performance and see she landed 92 significant strikes while still racking up over eight minutes of control time. That fight was also against a BJJ grappler, so it’s still not a very good comp, but we at least got to see more of Buys’ striking as she landed 6.13 SS/min. Even with nearly 100 significant strikes landed, eight minutes of control time and five takedowns defended, she still would have scored just 83 DraftKings points and 90 points on FanDuel. That shows she would really need to put up a massive striking number to score well on this slate if the fight goes the distance. That’s certainly very possible, as there’s a good chance this fight turns into a complete brawl, but it’s not something you can necessarily rely on. Buys’ expensive price tag and tendency to fight to decisions (six straight) make it tougher for her to consistently return value at her high price tag, but she should score better on FanDuel than DraftKings as long as this remains mostly on the feet. Just remember she trains out of the same gym as Jinh Yu Frey who dominated De Paula on the ground, so there’s somewhat of a chance we could see her look to take De Paula down as well, which would boost her DraftKings scoring. The odds imply Buys has a 60% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.
De Paula is an interesting underdog on this slate as she heads into a pace-up fight against Buys who should be a game opponent to throw down in a striking battle. In De Paula’s previous two career losses, she bounced back with a pair of R3 KOs, albeit against a much lower level of competition, but she has shown resilience. There’s a good chance this ends in a high-volume decision and if De Paula can get the nod from the judges, which you might as well just flip a coin these days, then there’s a good chance she could serve as a value play at her cheaper price tag even if she doesn’t put up a huge score. She would also likely score better on FanDuel in that scenario. The odds imply she has a 40% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #2
Kyung Ho Kang
10th UFC Fight (6-2, NC)Coming off a 19 month layoff, Kang enters this fight on a three fight winning streak and having won six of his last seven fights. His last two and three of his last four fights have gone the distance, but he does have three submission wins since joining the UFC. However, all three of those finishes came against very questionable opponents.
Kang lost a pair of decisions to start his UFC career in 2013, although the split-decision loss to Alex Caceres in his UFC debut was overturned to a No Contest when Caceres tested positive for THC. Kang bounced back with a 2014 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke Submission to notch his first UFC win, but just keep in mind it came against journeyman Shunichi Shimizu, who was fighting for the first and only time in the UFC and has since gone 7-16-1. Kang then won a split decision later in 2014, before taking three and a half years off from 2014-2018 to fulfill his mandatory South Korean military service.
He returned to the UFC in 2018 and landed a first round Triangle Choke Submission against Guido Cannetti, who is 2-4 in the UFC with all four of those losses coming early, three by submission, and has been submitted a total of four times in his career. Kang then lost a split decision to Ricardo Ramos, before landing another first round submission in 2019, this time by Rear-Naked Choke. That early win came against another shaky talent in Teruto Ishihara, who’s no longer in the UFC, has lost five straight and seven of his last eight fights, and has been finished in the first round in three of his last four matches. Since then, Kang has won a pair of grappling-heavy decisions against Brandon Davis, who went 2-5 in the UFC before being released in 2019, and Pingyuan Liu who went 2-2 in the UFC. Kang notably hasn’t stepped inside the Octagon or even had a fight booked since that December 2019 match.
In his decision win over Brandon Davis, Kang trailed in significant strikes 77-50, but led in total strikes 120-114 and landed 3 takedowns on 6 attempts with over six minutes of control time, while Davis landed his only attempt. Davis notably chewed up Kang’s lead leg as he landed 28 leg strikes. In his most recent decision, Kang trailed in significant strikes again, this time just 25-20, while also coming out behind in total strikes 114-108. However, he landed 3 takedowns on 7 attempts and amassed a ridiculous 12 minutes and 23 seconds of control time and won his second straight split decision. Clearly the judges view control time very differently, as one judge ruled it 30-27 in Kang’s favor, while another ruled it 28-29 against him.
Kang has good size for the division and started his pro career at 154 lb in 2007, but has been at 135 lb since 2011. He’s now 17-8 as a pro, with two wins by KO, 11 by submission and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been knocked out was in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2008. The only time he's ever been submitted came in the first round of a 2011 match via Triangle Armbar. He also has five career decision losses, one DQ loss and a No Contest in his UFC debut that was really another decision loss. All of his UFC fights have ended in submission wins or decisions. Interestingly, five of Kang’s six decisions since joining the UFC have been split (3-2), so you never know what you’ll get out of the judges in his fights—even more so than normal.
While Kang has proven himself to be a dangerous submission threat, he’s curiously listed as being just a BJJ blue belt, which was somewhat surprising. He has decent striking, but has never landed more than 65 significant strikes in a fight and averages just 2.52 SSL/min (5th fewest on the slate). He does average 2.5 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a 59% takedown accuracy to go along with a 71% defense.
Rani Yahya
19th UFC Fight (12-4-1, NC)THIS FIGHT IS OFF!
Looking to break the Bantamweight submission record in this matchup after tying it in his last fight, Yahya recently submitted Ray Rodriguez, who’s now 0-2 in the UFC after getting submitted in both of his UFC fights. Yahya completely dominated Rodriguez on the ground in a fight where we only saw 11 combined significant strikes landed (8-3 in favor of Yahya). Yahya went 2 for 4 on takedowns with seven minutes of control and led in total strikes 42-15 before ending the fight with an Arm-Triangle Choke just over three minutes into the second round.
A second degree BJJ black belt and also a Muay Thai black belt, in reality Yahaya is a one-dimensional submission specialist and only uses his striking to set up takedowns. All 21 of his career finishes have come by submission, while his other six pro wins ended in decisions. In 38 pro matches, he’s only been finished three times—twice by KO and once by submission. Those came in a 2006 R1 Guillotine Choke, a 2007 R2 KO and a 2009 R1 KO. No one has finished him since that 2009 loss, two years before he joined the UFC. His other seven career losses have all ended in decisions. He has seven submission wins in the UFC, while 10 of his 18 UFC matches have gone to the judges, including all four of his losses with the organization. His one other UFC fight ended in a No Contest due a clash of heads 39 seconds in. His last four wins have all been by submission, including two in the first round.
Now 36 years old, Yahya has amazingly been a pro for nearly 19 years. Age is really the only concern with him if you’re looking for cracks in his foundation as he’s a three time world BJJ champion and Abu Dhabi gold medalist and offers elite grappling skills and proven durability.
Looking more closely at his finishes, 11 of his last 17 submission wins have come in the first round, four have come in the third round, and just two have come in R2. He likes to get opponents to the mat quickly and hunt for submissions quickly in fights, but if that fails he tends to patiently wear on the opposition before finishing things late. He’ll get opponents to the ground any way he can, whether that’s by traditional takedowns, pulling guard or grabbing an ankle. Because of that, his takedown numbers are solid, but not overwhelming at 2.9 per 15 minutes. He does attempt a slate-leading 9 takedowns per 15 minutes and averages 6 missed attempts.
Yahya has never landed more than 59 significant strikes in a fight and has only topped 40 twice. He’s also never absorbed more than 57 significant strikes, which came in his second most recent match. He occasionally puts up big takedown numbers, but less so recently. He only has eight takedowns in his last seven fights and only four in his last four matches. He’s also never landed a knockdown.
Similar to Kang, Yahya also started his pro career at 154 lb and started his UFC career at 145 lb where he went 4-2 in his first six fights with the organization. However, he dropped down to 135 lb in 2014 where he’s since gone 8-2-1 plus a No Contest. Also similar to Kang, all of Yahya’s UFC fights have ended in submission wins or have gone the distance.
Fight Prediction:
Kang will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
This is an interesting matchup between two submission specialists who are both good at controlling opponents on the ground. Kang has controlled his last five opponents for an average of 42.17% of the time, while Yaha is right behind him at 41.86% control time. That will make the ground exchanges quite interesting as both of these two are accustomed to exerting heavy top pressure while they hunt for submissions. Kang will have the striking advantage, but Yahya is the more experienced grappler and has competed twice since Kang last fought. It would make sense for Kang to utilize his striking advantage here instead of coming in with his normal game plan of taking the fight to the mat early on. He has a solid 71% takedown defense, so he should be able to force Yahya to stand and trade with him to some extent, opposed to putting himself at risk on the ground with one of the more dangerous submission specialists around. As long as he comes in with that mindset, we like him to win a decision here, but if Yahya can coerce him into a grappling match then this fight will turn into a coin flip. Yahya finds creative ways to get fights to the mat, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see him create a few opportunities to land submissions, but we’re leaning Kang wins this one in a decision.
The most likely outcome here is Kang wins a decision, which can be had at +160, but we also like “Fight Ends in a Submission” at +180.
DFS Implications:
Kang’s last two decision wins have been good for DK/FD totals of 93/50 and 100/80 and his three UFC submission wins have scored 118/139, 102/116, and 117/139 DK/FD points, so he’s clearly shown a high ceiling and the ability to score well on DraftKings in decision wins. However, he also dominated the ground exchanges in those recent two decisions and this fight should play out very differently. We expect Kang to be more likely to want to keep this fight standing where he should have a clear advantage against Yahya. With the potential for multiple takedowns defended, he should score better than normal in a decision on FanDuel, while his DraftKings floor is lower than in recent fights. It’s certainly possible that Yahya forces him into grappling exchanges and we still see heavy amounts of control time, but it’s far less likely than normal that Kang will be the one looking to take the fight to the ground. With DraftKings scores of 93 or more in his last four wins with three of those scores reaching triple digits, we expect Kang to be a popular DraftKings play at his reasonable $8,500 price tag. With a lower chance to either land a submission or dominate in control time, Kang’s DraftKings bust potential is higher than normal in this matchup, but he does have an elevated FanDuel scoring floor due to takedowns defended. Generally he’s a safer play on DraftKings, but that may not be the case on Saturday and he’ll likely be reliant on landing a finish to put up a big score on either site. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.
While Yahya’s last four wins have all come by submission, he’s still failed to top 103 DraftKings points in any of those, with DK/FD scores of 103/97 (R2 Sub), 92/112 (R1 Sub), 102/82 (R3 Sub), and 101/118 (R1 Sub). He also failed to land above 17 significant strikes or more than two takedowns in any of those four wins, and with zero career knockdowns his ceiling is somewhat capped. However, priced as the underdog in this matchup, that's of less concern here as he still should normally return value if he can land a submission. However, that could be tough going against an opponent who’s only been submitted once in his career and zero times in the last decade. Yahya averages an anemic 1.57 SSL/min and while he does land 2.9 takedowns per 15 minutes, he has just a 33% takedown accuracy. In his last two decision wins, Yahya scored just 88/82 and 70/68 DK/FD points and will have a tougher time being useful if this goes the distance. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #1
Sean Strickland
14th UFC Fight (10-3)While Strickland is a patient, methodical striker, he constantly inches forward, thus forcing the action in his fights. Since returning from a 2-year layoff following a motorcycle accident and a career-threatening knee injury, Strickland has been in three straight one-sided boxing matches, with two of those ending in decision wins and one in a R2 KO victory. He landed a combined 284 significant strikes in those three fights, which is good for 7.77 SSL/min, while absorbing less than half that number at 136 combined significant strikes, 3.72 SSA/min. Two of those wins came against unimpressive opponents in Jack Marshman, who’s gone 2-5 in his last seven fights, and Krzysztof Jotko, who’s gone 3-4. Jotko was also notably knocked out by Uriah Hall in the second round of a 2017 match. Strickland’s third recent win came against Brendan Allen, who has shown improved striking, but has still historically been more of a grappler. Seemingly making up for lost time, Stickland took on Allen in a 195 lb Catchweight match just two weeks after defeating Marshman in his first fight back from the extended layoff.
Only one of Strickland’s last 12 fights has ended in the 1st round and that was a 2018 R1 KO loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, which was the only time Strickland has ever been finished in 26 pro fights. Nine of his last 12 fights have made it to the third round with eight of those going the distance, although his last two KO wins both occurred in R2 (2018 & 2020). Outside of his one KO loss to Dos Santos, the only other two men to defeat Strickland since he joined the UFC are Kamaru Usman and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
The last time Strickland finished an opponent in the first round was in a 2014 R1 submission in his UFC debut and the last time he knocked anyone out in the first round was all the way back in 2013 before he joined the UFC. He had a stretch from 2014 to 2017 where six of his seven fights ended in decisions and the one exception was a third round KO win. Strickland seems far more concerned with getting wins than landing highlight reel finishes and has even talked about how the upside of putting on a good show is outweighed by the downside of potentially losing. For all the shit Strickland talks, he actually seems terrified to leave it all out there and constantly talks about how much better he performs in the gym than in the Octagon.
Previously claiming that Middleweights (185 lb) were too big for him, Strickland has fought most of his UFC career at 170 lb but moved back up to Middleweight in his 2020 return. He also fought his first two UFC fights at 185 lb where he went 2-0 with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win and a decision victory. Almost all of his pre-UFC career was spent at 185 lb for what it’s worth.
Of Strickland’s 23 pro wins, 10 have come by KO, four by submission and nine have gone the distance. All four of his submission wins were by Rear-Naked Choke and three of those came in 2010 or earlier in his first six pro fights. While this will be Strickland’s first five round fight in the UFC, he did have four fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC. He knocked out three of those opponents in the first round, while the fourth fight went the distance.
Uriah Hall
18th UFC Fight (10-7)Hall is coming off a bizarre/gruesome 17 second R1 TKO stoppage against Chris Weidman, where Weidman snapped his own leg on Hall’s knee on the first landed strike of the match. Hall never even threw a punch in the fight so it’s hard to take much away from it.
This upcoming fight will be Hall’s third five round fight in the UFC. His first came in 2016 and he got knocked out in the first round by Gegard Mousasi. His second came last October in Hall’s second most recent fight against a 45-year-old Anderson Silva and while Hall landed a fourth round KO, he only finished with 60 significant strikes (3.66 SSL/min). Hall essentially played patty cake with Silva for the first two and half rounds before nearly finishing Silva at the end of the third round. However, Silva was saved by the bell before getting finished early in R4 as he charged in with his hands down and his chin up like a guy who had decided he’d rather finish his career getting knocked out then in a boring decision.
While Hall’s first four UFC losses all went the distance, his last three losses have all come by knockout in the first two rounds, with the most recent finishing in R2, but the two prior to that ending in R1. Those are the only three times he’s been knocked out in the UFC, although he was also KO’d once prior to joining the organization. Seven of his last 8 fights have now ended in KOs (4-3) and the only time any of his 26 pro fights have finished with a submission was a 2012 R1 Heel Hook victory. Prior to the Weidman freak accident, Hall had been in five straight fights that made it out of the first round, with the most recent three all making it at least to the third round. Nevertheless, 11 of his 17 UFC fights have ended in KOs/TKOs. Four of his UFC KO wins have occurred in R1, two in R2, one in R3 and one in R4. However, not counting the Weidman injury, Hall’s last four KO wins all occured beyond the first round (R4, R3, R2 & R2).
He’s now 17-9 as a pro, with 13 wins by KO, one by submission and three by decision. He’s been knocked out four times in his career and also lost five decisions. Four of his last six fights to go the distance ended in split decisions (1-3) and he’s just 3-5 in fights that have ended with the judges, so he’s generally on the wrong end of close fights and his low-volume no-grappling fighting style makes it tough for him to win without a knockout.
Hall is on a four fight winning streak, after losing four of his five fights just prior to that. However, his current hot streak needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Prior to winning by default when Weidman broke his own leg, Hall defeated a 45-year-old Anderson Silva in his final UFC fight, Antonio Carlos Jr. who lost his final three UFC fights before being released, and a debuting Bevon Lewis, who is now 1-3 in the UFC. All four of those wins came against struggling opponents who have each gone 1-3 in their last four UFC fights.
Fight Prediction:
Strickland will have a 1” height advantage, but Hall will have a 3” reach advantage.
Strickland has legitimate KO power, but is reluctant to force the issue, which is why so many of his fights go the distance. His ideal matchup would be an aggressive boxer who constantly pushes forward, however now he’ll face another patient striker in Hall who should slow down the tempo of this match. Hall has never absorbed more than 75 significant strikes in a fight and has never landed above 60. Meanwhile, the only person to ever land more than 62 significant strikes on Strickland was Kamaru Usman, so don’t expect Hall to put up a big striking total. We’re expecting a slower paced boxing match with Strickland slowly inching forward, while Hall carefully retreats. Considering Hall’s last three losses have all come by KO in the first two rounds, we can’t say we’d be shocked to see Strickland land a KO in the first half of this fight, but we’d still be surprised if it came in the first round. A Strickland R2 or R3 KO win is far more likely, but we could also see this potentially ending in a lower volume decision. Either way, we’re confident Strickland wins this fight and the only way we see him losing is if Hall lands the perfect shot to his chin and knocks him out, which we don’t really see happening.
Strickland’s -215 moneyline is the safest bet here, followed by “Fight Ends in KO” at -150. Our favorite long shot is Strickland’s R2 KO line at +1000, but you can also consider his R3 KO lines at +1300 or his overall KO line at +175. The only bet we’re considering on Hall’s side is his KO line at +300.
DFS Implications:
Strickland lands a decent amount of striking volume with a career average of 5.14 SSL/min and occasionally mixes in a takedown or two, but this sets up as a pace down matchup so seeing him come in under his career average would make sense. That puts a damper on his scoring potential, although in the past he’s still been able to put up solid DFS scores even with later round finishes. He scored a massive 128 DraftKings points and 149 points on FanDuel in his second round KO win against Brendan Allen, but we’d be shocked if he matched that striking output here. His second most recent finish came in a 2018 R2 KO where he scored 108 DraftKings points and 126 points on FanDuel, while his only other knockout in the UFC came in the third round of a 2016 match and was good for 104 DraftKings points and 130 points on FanDuel. His last two decisions didn’t score well and were good for DK/FD totals of just 64/73 and 72/84. That pace would have been good for 86/109 and 101/126 points over the course of five rounds. The biggest takeaways there are that Strickland always scores better on FanDuel than DraftKings and could struggle to return value on DraftKings in a decision win. Even on FanDuel he could still easily get left out of the optimal lineup if he doesn’t land a finish, but he’s far more likely to be useful there than on DraftKings. Keeping in mind that Strickland likely needs a finish on DraftKings to end up in the optimal lineup, the odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 36% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Looking at Hall’s most recent five round fight, he knocked out a 45-year-old Anderson Silva in the fourth round of an October 2020 main event. Despite landing a pair of knockdowns along with the finish, Hall only scored 85 DraftKings points and 95 points on FanDuel as he landed just 60 significant strikes in over 16 minutes of “action.” That’s good for just 3.66 SSL/min, which is still above Hall’s career average of 3.34 SSL/min. Hall hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 10 fights and is a slow-paced one-dimensional striker. Despite landing KO wins in five of his last 10 UFC fights, Hall has amazingly only topped 91 DraftKings points in one of those bouts, which resulted from a quick win bonus on DraftKings in his recent R1 TKO win when Chris Weidman snapped his own leg 17 seconds in and Hall put up the bare minimum you can score with a finish in the first 60 seconds, which is 115 DraftKings points and 100 FD points. In his other four most recent knockout wins, Hall returned DF/FD scores of 85/95 (R4 KO), 71/85 (R3 KO), 91/106 (R2 KO), and 88/103 (R2 KO). His only decision win since 2014 scored just 56 DraftKings points and 67 points on FanDuel, which sets a pace to score 73 and 99 respective points in a five round decision. So outside of his last fight that received the DraftKings quick win bonus, Hall has always scored better on FanDuel, which makes sense due to his one-dimensional striking approach to fighting. He’s also generally struggled to score decently, especially on DraftKings, even when he does get a finish. The one thing he has going for him is his dirt cheap price tag, so if he is somehow able to win this fight then he could still be useful as a value play depending on what the other cheap plays do. The odds imply Hall has a 34% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma