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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Josefine Knutsson
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Just three and a half weeks removed from a decision win on DWCS, Knutsson had been scheduled to face a really tough Iasmin Lucindo here, but Lucindo dropped out and Marnic Mann was announced as the replacement nine days out. In her recent decent win, Knutsson landed a devastating head kick in the open minute of the fight, but her opponent was able to survive in the clinch afterwards as Knutsson rushed in for a finish. However it was one-way traffic for the entire fight as Knutsson dominated from start to finish, winning a unanimous 30-27 decision. That was her fourth straight decision win and the only knock on Knutsson has been her inability to find finishes. Prior to going on DWCS, Knutsson won a close split decision with UAE Warriors, after dominating in another decision just before that.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Knutsson has oneTKO win and five decision victories. Her only finish came in the second round of her second pro fight back in September 2021.
Overall, Knutsson is a really solid striker and a former K-1 and Muay champion before she turned pro in MMA in 2021. She’s still just 27 years old and trains at Allstars in Sweden with Chimaev. While her background is in striking, she’ll also mix in takedowns and has a pretty solid takedown defense. She throws snappy head kicks and good combinations and looks like an interesting young prospect in the Strawweight division. One thing to note is that she has a really short reach at just 60”, but her kicking game should help her to overcome that.
Marnic Mann
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut on just nine days’ notice, Mann is coming off a decision win in the LFA against an opponent who hadn’t fought in four years after going 1-5 in her previous six fights, and who still dominated Mann in the first round before gassing out. Prior to that, Mann got knocked out in the second round by Bruna Brasil on DWCS with a nasty head kick. Looking back one fight further, Mann squeaked out a split decision against a 35-year-old fighter who came in with a 1-1 record and dominated Mann at times in the fight.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Mann has three wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. All four of her finishes came in her first four pro fights against low-level opponents and her last two wins both went the distance—also against low-level opponents. The one time she faced any legitimate competition was when she went on DWCS in September 2022 and suffered her only career loss in a second round head kick knockout.
Overall, Mann is a low-level fighter coming off the unknown Montana regional scene. She’s just five feet tall and relies on her wrestling to win fights. She loves looking for head and arm throws, which may work on the regional scene, but is often less successful at the UFC level. Mann has given us no indication that she belongs in the UFC and it appears she was only brought on to fill a slot on short notice as the UFC desperately scrambled to try and keep this card somewhat intact.
Fight Prediction:
Knutsson will have a 3” height advantage, but Mann will have a 4” reach advantage.
Knutsson looks like a legitimate prospect and a solid striker, while Mann is a low-level wrestler who was brought on out of necessity to keep the bout total on this card from creeping towards single digits. Mann has absolutely no business winning this fight and Knutsson should be able to do whatever she wants here. She has a significant striking advantage and even in the grappling exchanges she looks like the stronger fighter. Mann got knocked out on DWCS with a head kick she never saw coming and Knutsson has a great head kick of her own that could result in a similar outcome. While Knutsson has been a decision machine for basically her entire MMA career, if she was ever going to find a finish this would be the spot. While there’s the potential for this to turn into a clinchfest as Mann desperately looks for takedowns along the fence, it’s such a mismatch that we like Knutsson’s chances of finding a finish, most likely by knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Josefine Knutsson R1 or R2 KO” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Knutsson looks like an interesting young prospect and is a former K-1 and Muay Thai champion who will also mix in takedowns. While she only has six MMA fights under her belt, she has a ton of combat experience and it shows in her stand up game. Five of her six pro wins have gone the distance and she’s yet to show she can really score well in a decision, as her DWCS victory would have only scored 82 DraftKings points and 64 points on FanDuel. However, this looks like a great opportunity for her to find a finish as she faces a low-level opponent who’s filling in on short notice. The one time Mann faced a legitimate opponent was when she went on DWCS in 2022 and got knocked out in the second round by Bruna Brasil, who would have scored 118 DraftKings points and 123 points on FanDuel in the win. There’s no reason to think Knutsson can’t do something similar, as she has a similar skill set to Brasil. Knutsson’s high price tag will keep her ownership lower, but could also result in her getting priced out of winning lineups even if she does find a finish. So obviously she’s a risky play in tournaments, but the upside is worth it on a smaller slate where it will be much tougher to create unique lineups. The odds imply Knutsson has an 84% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Mann is a short, low-level wrestler who has given us no indication that she can be competitive at the UFC level. We’ve seen her struggle at times against other unimpressive opponents and she was also knocked out on DWCS last year in her only fight against anyone remotely decent. She’s undersized and outgunned in this matchup and we expect her to get pieced up on the feet, while struggling to implement her wrestling-heavy gameplan. However, if we’re wrong, her wrestling-heavy style of fighting is a good fit for the DraftKings scoring system and at her cheap price tag she would likely end up in winning lineups if she pulls off the unlikely upset. She’ll also be lower owned and when you pair two debutinging fighters there’s some inherent volatility. Knutsson also fought just three and a half weeks ago, so it’s possible the back-to-back weight cuts could impact her performance. So there are enough reasons to have some level of exposure to Mann in large-field tournaments, but we fully expect her to get dominated in this fight. The odds imply Mann has a 16% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Charlie Campbell
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Campbell will be making his UFC debut on short notice following a quick first round knockout with the CFFC organization. He originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2022, but got knocked out by Chris Duncan in just 103 seconds. Prior to getting finished in that fight, Campbell nearly landed a knockout of his own and had Duncan badly hurt, but got caught with a counter shot as he went in for the kill and ended up unconscious. Leading up to that loss, Campbell won five straight fights, with four of those ending in knockouts. The most recent of those came in the first round against an opponent who missed weight by seven pounds and he hadn’t been facing much in the way of competition.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Campbell has five wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once and has one decision defeat, which occurred in his second pro fight. After three of his first four pro matches went the distance, his last five all ended in knockouts in under seven minutes. He had a couple of fights with Bellator, but most of his career has been spent with the CFFC.
Overall, Campbell is an aggressive knockout artist who comes into every fight looking to end things early. He trains at Serra-Longo fight team with a bunch of solid grapplers like Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili, and will mix in takedowns at times, but is primarily a striker. When he does end up on the mat, he looks to finish opponents with ground and pound and he’s never submitted anybody. It’s rare to see Campbell’s fights last longer than a round and a half, but he did win the last decision he went to, and was still pushing for a finish late in that fight, which is encouraging for his cardio.
Alex Reyes
2nd UFC Fight (0-0)Reyes was originally booked to face Natan Levy here, but Levy dropped out and Campbell was announced as the replacement eight days out. Prior to that, Reyes had been booked to face Trevor Peak back in February but ended up dropping out after he tore a ligament in his hand. Before that, he went five years without having anything booked, after dropping out of a 2018 fight due to a spinal infection that left him unable to walk. The last time he actually competed was all the way back in 2017 when he made his short notice UFC debut against Mike Perry and got knocked out in 79 seconds when Perry kneed him in the face. Prior to that loss, Reyes had finished 13 straight opponents and won both the Welterweight and Lightweight belts with the King of the Cage promotion.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Reyes has nine wins by KO/TKO and four submissions. He’s been knocked out twice and lost the only decision he’s ever been to. The first of his knockout losses came in the first round of his 2007 pro debut and the second was in the first round of his 2017 UFC debut. The only time he required the judges was in his second pro fight back in 2007 and his last 14 fights ended early. Thirteen of Reyes’ 16 fights ended in the first round, while he also has two fourth round finishes. While he has more than twice as many knockouts as submissions, four of his last five finishes came by submission. Reyes has fought at both 155 lb and 170 lb, and while his UFC debut was at 170 lb, this fight will be at 155 lb.
Overall, Reyes will be making his return to the UFC six years to the day after he made his short notice UFC debut. That makes it tough to know what to expect out of him in his first fight back and he comes in as a wild card after all of the medical issues he’s been through and now 36 years old. He owns his own gym so he’s been around the sport in his time away, but his current form remains a complete mystery. He trains with Bobby Green, while also spending time training out in Las Vegas at Syndicate, and is the older brother of Dominick Reyes. While all of his tape is 7+ years old, Reyes has looked well-rounded and is a pretty decent grappler, who will also throw down on the feet. He utilizes a lot of movement and mixes in a good amount of takedowns. On the mat, he’ll look for ground and pound and to lock up chokes, both of which he’s been pretty successful with. We’re very interested to see how he looks after so long away.
Fight Prediction:
Campbell will have a 1” height advantage, while Reyes will have a 1” reach advantage. Campbell is eight years younger than the 36-year-old Reyes.
We’re used to seeing one, two, even three year layoffs, but rarely do we get a fighter coming off a six year layoff. That makes this a tough spot to figure out and adds a lot of volatility, which does not appear to be accounted for in the betting lines. Campbell is a knockout specialist and Reyes got quickly knocked out in his only UFC fight, which may be where the research stops for many people. However, it’s important to realize that Reyes’ knockout loss to Mike Perry came on very short notice and up a weight class. Prior to that, Reyes had been on an impressive 13 fight finishing streak and showed a lot of potential. He’s the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup and will have the advantage on the mat. Campbell also notably stepped into this matchup on short notice after Reyes’ previous opponent dropped out. What Reyes’ current form will look like remains a mystery and he has the potential to be completely washed up, look terrible, and get violently knocked out. However, he could also look great if he can turn this into a grappling battle and we’re willing to bet on the unknown here in Reyes at the odds presented. We’ll say Reyes gets Campbell down and finishes him on the mat, most likely by submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Reyes’ ML” at +370.
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DFS Implications:
Campbell’s last five fights all ended in knockouts in under seven minutes (4-1) and his aggressive style of fighting definitely looks like something we’ll want to target both sides of in DFS. He hasn’t faced much in the way of competition and got knocked out in the first round on DWCS in 2022, so it remains to be seen if his finishing abilities can translate to the next level. Campbell also notably stepped into this fight on just over a week’s notice, so he didn’t have much time to prepare. However, Reyes hasn’t fought in six years after getting knocked out by Mike Perry in his UFC debut and is now 36-years-old, so we have a ton of volatility on both sides. While it’s hard to know exactly how this fight plays out, both guys offer a ton of finishing upside and whoever wins should score well. The odds imply Campbell has a 78% chance to win, a 67% chance to land a finish, and a 48% chance it comes in round one.
Reyes is a complete wildcard after taking six years off following the knockout loss to Mike Perry in his debut. He dealt with some serious health complications after a botched stem cell treatment resulted in a spinal infection that left him unable to walk. It took him over half a decade to work his way back, and we have no idea if he’ll look like the same fighter as before. If he does, he’ll have a ton of finishing upside, as he got 13 straight opponents out of there early just before making his UFC debut. However, if he looks like a shell of himself then this will likely be a teed up finish for Campbell. Either way, someone should score well here and the winner of this fight has a really good shot at ending up in tournament winning lineups. Reyes’ grappling upside leaves him with a safer floor on DraftKings, but all 13 of his pro wins have come early and it would be surprising to see this fight go the distance. The odds imply Reyes has a 22% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Tracy Cortez
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Cortez had been scheduled to face Amanda Ribas in December 2022 but ended up dropping out due to an injury and now hasn’t competed in 16 months since winning a decision over Melissa Gatto in May 2022. And period to that it had been 13 months since she won a split decision over Justine Kish, and Cortez has only fought once in the last 29 months. Nevertheless, Cortez has won 10 straight fights, with the last six of those all going the distance. Two of those six decision wins came against high-level grapplers in Stephanie Egger and Erin Blanchfield, in addition to her last win over a dangerous submission threat in Melissa Gatto.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Cortez has one TKO victory (R2 2018), one submission win (R1 2018), and eight decision victories. The only time she’s ever lost was in a 2017 R2 guillotine in her pro debut. After fighting her first seven pro fights at 125 lb, Cortez moved up to 135 lb for her first two UFC fights before dropping back down to 125 lb for her last two matches, where this next fight will also be.
Overall, Cortez is a powerful wrestler who relies on winning fights on the mat. Between her four UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, Cortez landed 14 takedowns on 29 attempts (48.3% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 4 of their 14 attempts (71.4% defense). She relies on controlling her opponents on the mat to win fights and isn’t much of a finishing threat. She also only averages 3.56 SSL/min and 2.32 SSA/min and has never landed more than 79 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 55. Cortez trains out of Fight Ready with a bunch of high-level UFC fighters, including current and former champions, so she’s got a good team around her. In a recent interview, Cortez said she’s been working on her striking and she wants to find a finish on the feet, but take that for what it’s worth.
Jasmine Jasudavicius
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Fresh off an upset win over Miranda Maverick, Jasudavicius has won two straight and five of her last six fights. Her last seven matches all went the distance, after three of her first four pro fights ended early. Jasudavicius was able to stuff all three of Maverick’s takedown attempts, while also landing her only attempt in the fight and controlling Maverick for seven and a half minutes. Prior to that, Jasudavicius defeated a debuting one-dimensional striker in Gabriella Fernandes, after losing a decision to a surging young prospect in Natalia Silva. Looking back one fight further, Jasudavicius won a decision in her UFC debut over Kay Hansen, who was fighting up at 125 lb for the first and only time in the UFC and was in the midst of a three fight before being cut by the UFC. Jasudavicius made her way into the UFC with a strong wrestling performance on DWCS as she landed four takedowns on seven attempts with over eight minutes of control time in a decision win.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Jasudavicius has two wins by R1 TKO, one submission, and six decision victories. Both of her losses went the distance, with one of those coming in a questionable split decision against a one-dimensional striker in Elise Reed in a 2020 four-round CFFC Strawweight Championship fight before they both joined the UFC. Jasudavicius only turned pro in 2019 and was very late coming into MMA as she’s already 34 years old. Her loss to Reed came at 115 lb, while almost all of her other fights have been at 125 lb, with the one exception being a 2020 122 lb Catchweight match. Her only career submission win was in her 2019 pro debut against an opponent who had never fought professionally before, while her two TKO wins both came by knees in the first round of her third and fourth pro fights.
Overall, Jasudavicius relies almost entirely on her wrestling to grind out decision wins and is very one-dimensional. She generally looks for ground and pound on the mat, opposed to really hunting for submissions, although she’s never actually finished anyone with ground strikes. While she didn’t get into MMA until later on in her life, she does have a freestyle wrestling background and is a BJJ purple belt. Between her four UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, Jasudavicius has landed 11 of her 25 takedown attempts (44% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on just 3 of their 14 attempts (78.6% defense). She only averages 3.23 SSL/min and 3.92 SSA/min and has never landed more than 70 significant strikes in a fight. After getting to fight in front of her home Canadian crowd in her last match, she’ll now have to deal with the crowd backing her opponent.
Fight Prediction:
Jasudavicius will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Cortez is five years younger than the 34-year-old Jasudavicius.
Both of these two fighters have historically relied on their wrestling to win fights, so it will be interesting to see if this turns into more of a striking battle as they both have pretty solid takedown defenses. It’s also possible that it ends up as a back and forth wrestling match on the mat, so there are a couple of different ways this fight could go. We say it every time, but predicting how matchups like this will go is especially challenging and we see a lot of volatility in this style of wrestle versus wrestle fight, especially in women’s MMA which is already more volatile to begin with. However, what we do know is that Cortez has been the more consistent fighter and will also have the crowd behind her, but Jasudavicius has been much more active. We lean towards Cortez winning by decision, but this one feels close to a coin flip, as the odds indicate.
Our favorite bet here is “Cortez DEC” at +125.
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DFS Implications:
Cortez has won decisions in all four of her UFC fights, averaging 88 DraftKings points in those four victories and scoring between 80 and 87 points in the last three. She’s typically a DraftKings specific play where she can score from her massive amounts of control time, and she struggles to score well on FanDuel. She hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat, which leaves her reliant on dominating opponents on the mat to score well. That could be tough here as she squares off against a larger wrestler in Jasudavicius. Cortez said she wants to show off more of her striking and Jasudavicius can get pretty wild on the feet, so maybe this just turns into a wild brawl between two wrestlers who lack the technical striking skills to properly defend themselves. It’s also possible we get a back and forth wrestling match or a slower paced striking battle, leaving a wide range of potential scoring outcomes. They’re both reasonably priced, so it may not take a huge score for the winner to end up in the optimal lineup, but that will largely depend on how high scoring of a slate this becomes. So this is sort of a wildcard fight and it’s tough to know what we’ll get from it, but the most likely outcome is a moderate scoring decision and Cortez is the slight favorite. The odds imply Cortez has a 52% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Jasudavicius is a one-dimensional wrestler who has fought to seven straight decisions and is typically a DraftKings specific play who needs to completely dominate fights on the mat to score well. She has averaged 92 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins, with two scores in the mid 80s and one 105 point total. Both her fighting style and scoring has been similar to Cortez’s, and so is her salary on this slate. So we’re approaching them both pretty similarly, where they have solid floors, but uncertain ceilings. Jasudavicius just pulled off a big upset over Miranda Maverick in her last fight, so maybe she can do it again here. We’re not taking a very hard stand on this one and think both fighters are live to win and put up a decent score. It makes sense to have some exposure to each of them, while realizing there’s still a fairly good chance the winner doesn’t score quite enough to crack the optimal lineup if we get a slate where multiple cheap plays go off. The odds imply Jasudavicius has a 48% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Edgar Chairez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Chairez will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his recent short notice UFC debut against a really tough Tatsuro Taira. Chairez attempted multiple guillotines in the fight, but was unable to complete any of them, so he consistently sacrificed position for those submission attempts. That resulted in Chairez getting controlled for nearly 10 minutes in the fight. Prior to that, Chairez landed a pair of submission wins, after losing a decision to Clayton Carpenter on DWCS in 2022. Chairez looked decent on the feet in that match and won the first round on all three scorecards, but once he got taken down late in round two, he wasn’t able to do anything off his back. He then got taken down twice more in round three, as Carpenter came back to win a decision. Following that loss, Chairez returned to the Mexican regional scene and locked up a 63 second guillotine against a 37-year-old opponent. He then landed a fourth round submission in a fight that he appeared to be losing up to that point. That ending was crazy as he choked his opponent unconscious with a triangle choke but the ref refused to stop the fight, so he then transitioned to an armbar and his opponent seemed to wake up as he was getting his arm bent backwards, and it still took the ref a while longer before finally stopping things when his opponent finally tapped.
Now 10-5 as a pro, Chairez has four wins by KO/TKO and six submission victories. Seven of his 10 finishes came in round one, two ended in round two, and the most recent occurred in round four. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice, and lost all three of the decisions he’s been to.
Overall, Chairez looks decent and at 5’7” he has good size for the Flyweight division. He’s primarily a striker, but does have some submission skills, although he hasn’t looked great off his back and has struggled to escape that position at times in the past. Between his UFC debut and his DWCS appearance, Chairez didn’t attempt any takedowns, while his opponents got him down on 5 of their 9 attempts (44.4% defense). His biggest issue has been getting taken down and controlled and he needs to improve his defensive wrestling and stop relying on guillotines in those situations.
Daniel Da Silva/Lacerda
5th UFC Fight (0-4)Everyone’s favorite loser was allowed to stick around the UFC despite getting finished in the first two rounds in all four of his UFC matches. The most recent of those losses came against C.J. Vergara, who was narrowly able to survive the first round, with the help of a very long leash from the ref as Vergara sprinted away from Da Silva after getting dropped twice and nearly knocked out. Many refs would have stopped the fight, but Vergara arguably did just enough to prevent Jason Herzog from jumping in. Da Silva predictably gassed out after round one and Vergara finished him with ground and pound in round two. Prior to that, Da Silva had been scheduled to fight Vinicius Salvador in December 2022, but dropped out due to a botched weight cut. Just before that, he got finished with ground and pound in the first round against Victor Altamirano, after dropping Altamirano early in the fight. That came just after Da Silva got submitted in the first round by Francisco Figueiredo, after getting finished with ground and pound in round two of his 2021 UFC debut against Jeff Molina. Da Silva has still never even seen the third round in his career, let alone require the judges.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Da Silva has five wins by KO/TKO and six submissions. He’s been knocked out four times and has one submission loss. Thirteen of his fights ended in round one (10-3) and three ended in round two (1-2). He’s just 3-5 in his last eight fights, with all but two of those ending in round one. Da Silva turned pro in 2017 at 135 lb, but quickly moved down to 125 lb.
Overall, Da Silva is a BJJ brown belt and a dangerous grappler, but also likes to throw a decent number of kicks and is a threat to finish fights on the feet as well. All six of his submission wins have come in the first round either by armbar or triangle choke and he’s incredibly active off his back hunting for submissions, while he’s more so looking for ground and pound from top position. His biggest issues are his cardio and durability and he’s clearly an offensively minded fighter who’s sole focus is on finishing fights quickly. He’s looked incredibly fragile so far in the UFC and his defense is essentially non-existent. He’s only landed two of his five takedown attempts in the UFC (40% accuracy), while no one has tried to take him down. This is the first time we can remember a fighter going 0-4 with the UFC and not being released, so clearly they like his all action style and every time he steps inside the Octagon we get an exciting fight.
Fight Prediction:
Chairez will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
Both of these two fighters come in with a 100% finishing rate and this one sets up for pure violence. While Da Silva is about as durable as a wet paper bag, Chairez has never been knocked out, but has been more prone to getting submitted. Chairez also loves to look for guillotines when his opponents try to take him down, which results in him spending a lot of time on his back. Based on how durable Chairez has been on the feet, we expect Da Silva will be looking to grapple and his lone path to victory appears to be locking up a first round submission before he turns into a pumpkin in round two. All Chairez has to do is survive the initial blitz of Da Silva and then he should be looking at a teed up finish either late in round one or early in round two. Chairez’s last two and four of his last six finishes have come by submission, but he also has the ability to knock opponents out, which is where Da Silva has been the most vulnerable. Both finishing methods are possible and we’ll take Chairez to get Da Silva out of there in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -196.
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DFS Implications:
Chairez has pretty crisp striking, likes to look for submissions, and has good size for the Flyweight division. However, he gets controlled a little too easily on his back, which makes it tougher for him to win decisions. Fortunately for him, Daniel Da Silva has a one round gas tank and has never even seen the third round, let alone the judges. Anyone that has been watching the UFC for the last couple of years knows what Da Silva’s deal is. He sells out for early finishes and then melts when they’re unsuccessful. He’s been finished in the first two rounds in all four of his UFC fights and has given us no indication that he plans on changing his approach. Da Silva’s four opponents averaged 114 DraftKings points against him, with three scores of 111 or more. So this is always a guy you want to target and Chairez is the next man up. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Chairez comes in with a 100% finishing rate either, but we’d be willing to play almost anyone in DFS against Da Silva. The odds imply Chairez has a 66% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.
Da Silva has never been past the second round and 10 of his 11 wins have come in round one, so he clearly has upside. However, he’s been finished in all four of his UFC fights and looks like one of the least defensively sound fighters on the roster. He also doesn’t have any sort of a gas tank and if can’t find a finish in the first round he should get knocked out in round two, if he even makes it that long. He’s a R1 or bust play with a high theoretical ceiling that he’s yet to show at the UFC level and a non-existent floor. Working in his favor, Chairez has been submitted twice in his career and Da Silva is dangerous on the mat. If Da Silva can get this fight to the ground, he could lock up a submission, but it still feels like a longshot. At his cheap price tag, it’s hard to see Da Silva getting left out of winning lineups if he pulls off the upset and whoever wins this match should put up a big score. The odds imply Da Silva has a 34% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Roman Kopylov
6th UFC Fight (3-2)This spot on the card has been a game of musical chairs. Chris Curtis was originally booked to face Anthony Hernandez here. Then on August 15th Curtis dropped out and Kopylov stepped in to face Hernandez. Then on August 23rd Hernandez dropped out and Fremd replaced him. So Kopylov had four and a half weeks to prepare, while Fremd had three and a half weeks.
Seven weeks removed from an early second round knockout win over Claudio Ribeiro, Kopylov has landed three straight late round knockouts, after starting off his UFC career with a pair of losses. The first of those defeats ended in a 2019 submission against a kickboxer in Karl Roberson, while the second went the distance against Albert Duraev. Kopylov then bounced back with a third round knockout of Alessio Di Chirico, followed by a second round TKO win over Punahele Soriano, leading up to his recent finish of Ribeiro. Kopylov struggled with inactivity early in his UFC career and there was nearly a two year gap between his debut and his second UFC appearance, and then almost another full year before his third UFC match. However, he’s gotten back on track now and this will be his fourth time in just over the last 12 months.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Kopylov has 10 wins by KO/TKO and one by decision. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has one decision defeat. Only one of his 10 knockout wins occurred in the first round, while four came in round two, three ended in round three, and two occurred in round four. After winning a decision in his 2016 pro debut, he landed seven straight knockouts leading up to his 2019 UFC debut. His last seven fights all made it out of the first round, with five of those seeing round three, but only one going the distance. His last five wins all ended in late round knockouts.
Overall, Kopylov is a crisp striker who has shown improvements every time he steps inside the Octagon. We’ve seen his confidence and striking output consistently increase as he continues to grow more and more comfortable in the cage. He throws lightning fast kicks and he’s incredibly dangerous on the feet. He doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling, with just two takedowns landed on four attempts (50% accuracy) in his five UFC fights, while his opponents have gotten him down on just 2 of their 20 attempts (90% defense). However, when he has been taken down he’s looked terrible on the mat, which has been his biggest weakness.
Josh Fremd
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Fremd just won a boring decision over Jamie Pickett five weeks ago on August 12th to earn himself a second UFC contract, in a fight where Fremd notably missed weight by 3 lb. Prior to that, Fremd notched his first UFC win with a second round guillotine against a debuting Sedriques Dumas. Leading up to his recent two wins, Fremd nearly got his head ripped off as he got choked unconscious early in the second round by Treasean Gore in another guillotine. Looking back one fight further, Fremd got smothered on the mat for three rounds in a decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against Anthony Hernandez. Fremd also got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues in the first round of a 2021 LFA fight and is just 4-3 in his last seven fights.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Fremd has four wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. All eight of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with three first round knockouts, another in round two, and four second round submissions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Both of his early losses ended in under six minutes.
Overall, Fremd is an aggressive fighter who likes to push forward and force the action. He trains at elevation with several other UFC fighters at Factory X in Colorado. Fremd is a somewhat dangerous striker with really good size for the division at 6’4” and he likes to throw violent flying knees. His aggressive fighting style has gotten him into trouble at times in the past and he had been prone to getting dropped on the regional scene. He’s also struggled with getting taken down and controlled. In his four UFC fights, he’s been taken down 13 times on 19 opponent attempts (31.6% defense), while only landing three of his own takedowns on seven attempts (42.9% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Fremd will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Kopylov is a really solid striker, but has struggled in grappling exchanges, which present a clear path for Fremd to pull off the upset if he can turn this into a wrestling match. Fremd has a pretty nasty guillotine and will also look for rear-naked chokes and it wouldn’t be shocking if he locked up a submission here. However, Kopylov is the superior striker and if this fight remains in space on the feet then there’s a really good chance he’ll knock Fremd out, which is the most likely way this fight ends. Ultimately, the outcome will hinge on whether or not Kopylov can keep it a striking battle, and we’ll lean towards saying that he can.
Our favorite bet here is “Roman Kopylov KO” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Kopylov has landed three straight late-round knockouts and 10 of his 11 career wins ended early. However, he only averaged 94 DraftKings points in his three UFC finishes, and only topped 93 points once. He doesn’t add much in terms of grappling and it’s tougher for him to put up big scores with poorly timed late finishes. At his expensive price tag, there are lots of ways for him to fail here and he appears reliant on landing a well-timed knockout in the first two rounds to be useful. There’s also a decent chance Fremd will come in looking to wrestle, which would further hinder Kopylov’s ability to score well with a finish beyond the first round. And with that in mind, only one of Kopylov’s 10 KO wins ended in the first round. The odds imply Kopylov has a 74% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Fremd is coming off a low scoring decision win where he totalled just 66 DraftKings points, but prior to that, he landed a second round submission that was good for 109 points and 8 of his 11 career victories ended in the first two rounds. He’s also been finished in two of his four losses, so he’s been kind of a boom or bust fighter who relies on landing finishes to score well. While he’ll be at risk of getting knocked out in this matchup if it remains standing, he’ll have the grappling advantage and would be wise to take the fight to the mat, where Kopylov has struggled in the past. That creates the potential for Fremd to score well on DraftKings in a grappling-heavy decision win, or score well on both sites if he can find a finish on the ground. The odds imply Fremd has a 26% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Loopy Godinez
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Godinez was originally scheduled to face Sam Hughes here, but Hughes dropped out, as did Reed’s opponent, so then these two were paired against one another in late August.
Coming off a pair of decision wins, Godinez has quietly won four of her last five fights, after starting out 1-2 in the UFC. Her last six and 10 of her last 11 fights ended with the judges, with the one exception being a 2021 first round submission against the highly submittable Silvana Gomez Juarez. In her recent win, Godinez relied basically entirely on her striking as she outlanded Emily Ducote 132-112 in significant strikes and cruised to a unanimous decision victory. Just six weeks prior to that, Godinez won a close split-decision win over Cynthia Calvillo, after suffering her only loss in her last five outings. That defeat came in a decision against Angela Hill, in a short notice fight where Godinez was coming off a hip injury. All three of Godinez’s UFC losses came in short notice fights, and she’s yet to lose a fight when given a full camp to prepare. Just before her loss to Hill, Godinez won a pair of wrestling-heavy decisions, where she absolutely dominated Ariane Carnelossi and Loma Lookboonmee on the mat, landing 13 takedowns between the two fights. Godinez made her short notice UFC debut against Jessica Penne earlier in 2021 and despite finishing ahead in significant strikes and takedowns, somehow lost a terrible split decision. Godinez bounced back with a submission win over Gomez Juarez, but then foolishly took a fight up a weight class just a week later and lost another short notice decision to Luana Carolina.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Godinez has one TKO win, one submission, and eight decision victories. Both of her early wins occurred in the first round, with one coming in her second pro fight and the other in her second UFC fight. All three of her losses ended in close decisions, with one of those being a questionable split result against Jessica Penne in Godinez’s UFC debut, another coming against Luana Carolina, where Godinez was fighting up a weight class just seven days after submitting Silvana Gomez Juarez, and the third on short notice against Angela Hill in front of Hill’s home crowd. Her last loss was at a 120 lb Catchweight, since it was on short notice, and the loss before that was at 125 lb, also on short notice. Her last win was also a 120 lb Catchweight fight. Godinez is 4-1 in the UFC at 115 lb and got robbed in the one loss.
Overall, Godinez is a solid wrestler, and a decent boxer. She’s landed 25 takedowns on 58 attempts in her seven UFC fights (43.1% accuracy), but her takedowns have been somewhat sporadic and she only landed two in her last three fights after completing 13 in her two matches prior to that. On the other side of things, she’s only been taken down on 4 of 22 opponent attempts (81.8% defense), although four of the six opponents to try and take her down landed one of their attempts. Her striking numbers are lower at 4.16 SSL/min and 3.77 SSA/min, but only because she’s found so much wrestling success and she just landed 132 significant strikes in her last fight. Godinez generally uses her wrestling in favorable matchups, with the one exception being the Angela Hill fight where Godinez was coming off a hip injury that limited what she could do. So when she faces grapplers she strikes and when she faces strikers she wrestles, as she should. Now she’ll face a very one-dimensional striker here. Godinez has been training at Lobo Gym with the champ Alexa Grasso in preparation for this fight.
Elise Reed
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Reed was originally booked to fight Cynthia Calvillo here, but she dropped out and Iasmin Lucindo stepped in. However, Lucindo then dropped out and Reed was matched up with Godinez, who had also lost an opponent. Continuing to trade wins and losses over her last seven fights, Reed is coming off a close/questionable decision win over Jinh Yu Frey that even shocked Reed when she heard the scorecards. Frey was able to take Reed down and control her for over four minutes, but her lack of output on the mat ended up costing her the fight, as Reed finished ahead 53-28 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Reed got submitted in the second round by Loma Lookboonmee, who had previously never submitted anybody. That came just after Reed saved her job with a decision win over Melissa Martinez, and all three of Reed’s UFC wins went the distance, while all three of her losses ended in finishes on the mat.
Now 7-3 as a pro, Reed has two wins by TKO and five decisions. She’s been finished on the mat in all three of her losses, twice with ground and pound, and once by submission. Two of her five decisions have been split and the last one probably should have been as well. Reed actually made her 2019 pro debut at Atomweight (105 lb), before moving up to 115 lb in 2020, and her UFC debut was all the way up at 125 lb.
With a Taekwondo background, Reed is a one-dimensional striker, but showed some improvements to her offensive wrestling against Melissa Martinez in 2022. Reed never even attempted a takedown in her first three UFC fights, but landed all three of her attempts in that match, although then failed to land her only attempt in her last two fights. She’s still a complete liability off her back and has been taken down by her opponents 14 times on 28 attempts (50% defense). All six of her UFC opponents have taken her down at least once, with four of them landing multiple takedowns. Reed owns her own gym in New Jersey and calling her own shots seems to have resulted in her never being forced to learn how to wrestle.
Fight Prediction:
Reed will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is a dream matchup for Godinez to find wrestling success, as Reed is a complete turtle off her back. Godinez could eat a meal from top position if she wanted to and we expect her to make the smart choice and rely on her wrestling to win this fight, despite leaning on her striking in her last two matches. The only question we have is whether or not Godinez will find a finish or just win a dominant decision. It’s hard to bet on her finishing anybody when she’s fought to six straight decisions and has just one early win in her last 11 fights, but Reed is so, so, so bad on the mat. We do like Godinez’s chances of ending this one early, but the oddsmakers are sharp to it and the decision and finishing lines are very close to one another. That makes it tough to bet anything but the decision line here, but we don’t mind taking her by submission if you can find a decent line and there’s a good chance she finishes Reed on the mat.
Our favorite bet here is “Godinez DEC” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Godinez has averaged 99 DraftKings points in her five UFC wins, despite four of those going the distance. While she only scored 88, 66, and 86 points in three of those decision victories, she scored 129 points in the other, on the back of eight takedowns landed with over thirteen minutes of control time. That didn’t fare quite as well on FanDuel, where it was only good for 106 points. We’re expecting another big wrestling performance from Godinez here, as she gets a dream matchup on a card honoring Mexican Independence Day. As soon as her last fight ended Godinez asked to be on this card specifically and we expect her to come in fully motivated to put on a show. She’s been training with Alexa Grasso at Lobo Gym in Mexico and this should be the best version of Godinez yet. With just one big DraftKings score in her last six fights, and now priced as the third most expensive fighter on the card, Godinez’s ownership should remain under control, despite having the potential to lead the slate in scoring if we get another strong wrestling performance from here. That just adds to her tournament appeal in this dream matchup. The odds imply Godinez has a 78% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Reed is a one-dimensional striker with a Taekwondo background who has really struggled off her back, getting finished on the mat in all three of her UFC losses, while going the distance in all three of her wins. She only averaged 71 DraftKings points in those three wins and has shown no upside along with her shaky floor. This is a terrible matchup for her, as we expect Godinez to come in looking to wrestle, which will negate the striking of Reed and make it impossible for her to win. Even if Godinez loses her mind and decides to stand and trade the whole time, Reed will still struggle to win, leaving us with little to no interest in playing Reed. The only reason to even consider playing her is that she’ll be low owned. The odds imply Reed has a 22% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Fernando Padilla
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Padilla recently won his UFC debut via R1 TKO against a chinny Julian Erosa, although it was definitely a quick stoppage by the ref. That’s Padilla’s only fight in the last 28 months, but he’s won three straight since losing a decision to Spike Carlyle in 2019. Thirteen of Padilla’s last 14 wins ended early, with the one exception being a 2021 split decision victory. Padilla’s last three finishes all ended in knockouts and prior to his recent first round finish he had seen the second round in seven straight fights. Padilla actually got signed by the UFC in 2021 and was scheduled to face Sean Soriano that October, but visa issues forced him to withdraw and wait on the sidelines for another year and a half before finally making his debut in April 2023.
Now 15-4 as a pro, Padilla has five wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and two decision victories. While he has nearly twice as many submissions as knockouts, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and 7 of his 8 submission wins occurred in his first 10 pro fights. He’s never been finished in his career, with all four of his losses going the distance. Two of those losses came against fighters who went on to join the UFC in Dan Ige and Spike Carlyle, and he also has a submission win over Darrick Minner on his record. He made his pro debut at 135 lb in 2015, but then immediately moved up to 145 lb and has even fought at 155 lb a few times, where he went 3-0 with three finishes. His last three matches were at 145 lb after he took on Spike Carlyle at a 150 lb Catchweight just before that.
Overall, Padilla is an aggressive fighter who marches forward on the feet and is dangerous off his back. He’s from Mexico but trains at Team Oyama with several past and current UFC fighters, including Ricky Simon. He’s a 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu brown belt and has very flexible hips that allow him to get creative with his grappling, although we rarely see him attempt any takedowns and he mostly uses his grappling defensively. He throws good knees and elbows out of the clinch and has good size for the 145 lb division at 6’1” with a 76” reach. His aggressiveness does leave him there to be hit, but his chin has held up thus far in his career and he looks like an entertaining fighter to watch with plenty of years ahead of him to continue cleaning some things up. In a recent interview, Padilla said he’d like to show more aspects of his game, and maybe show some ground work and possibly hunt for a submission. However, he also predicted he would win by second round knockout.
Kyle Nelson
8th UFC Fight (2-4-1)Fresh off a low-volume decision win over Blake Bilder, Nelson pulled off his first win since 2019 in front of his home Canadian crowd. Bilder outlanded Nelson in the first round and looked to be cruising, but Nelson turned the tides when he hurt Bilder late in the round and then not a lot happened down the stretch as Nelson finished ahead 59-45 in significant strikes, with no takedowns landed in the match. Prior to that, Nelson fought to a draw against Doo Ho Choi, who was coming off a 3+ year layoff and had lost three straight fights. Choi would have won the fight but was deducted a point in the third round for a questionable headbutt, so Nelson was fortunate to walk away with the draw. That came just after Nelson lost a slow-paced decision to Jai Herbert, and Nelson’s last three fights all went the distance (1-1-1), after his first four UFC fights ended early (1-3). After struggling with his cardio early in his UFC career, Nelson has recently been content with slowing fights down to preserve his gas tank. That has resulted in one boring fight after the next, although he recently claimed he’ll try to pick up the pace some in this next match. Other than his recent decision win, his only other UFC victory came against Marco Polo Reyes, who was attempting to move down to 145 lb for the first and only time in his career after getting knocked out in three of his previous four fights at 155 lb. Just before that win, Nelson amazingly got submitted by a terrible Matt Sayles, after getting knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut by Diego Ferreira. Following his win over Polo Reyes, Nelson got knocked out in the third round by Billy Quarantillo.
Now 14-5-1 as a pro, Nelson has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. While his last three fights all went the distance, his previous seven all ended early (4-3), with all four of those early wins coming in round one and all three of the losses ending in the later rounds. His recent decision win is the only time he’s won a fight that made it past round one since 2016. He’s fought at both 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, and after making his UFC debut at 155 lb he dropped down to 145 lb for his next three fights before moving back up to 155 lb for a fight in 2022. However, he then dropped back down to 145 lb for his last two matches and it appears that’s where he’ll stay.
Overall, Nelson has been a tail of two fighters in his UFC career. He started out as a brawler with bad cardio, but changed his approach in his last three matches as he began slowing fights down and relying more on his unimpressive wrestling. While he’s a BJJ brown belt, he hasn;t submitted anybody since 2017 and has been entirely unimpressive on the mat. In his seven UFC fights, Nelson has landed 7 of his 31 takedown attempts (22.5% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 4 of their 14 attempts (71.4 % defense). After only landing two total takedowns in his first five UFC matches, he landed five in his second most recent fight, but didn’t do much with them and got reversed on the mat. Then he failed to land his only attempt in his last fight, and he’s only taken down one of his last five opponents. He has okay power in his striking, but he’s not very quick and can’t compete on the feet against high-level strikers. He also doesn’t land much volume and averages just 3.06 SSL/min, while absorbing 4.52/min. Ultimately, Nelson is a low-level fighter and he’s overachieved simply lasting as long as he has in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Padilla will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 32-year-old Nelson.
Nelson was able to rely on his size advantage to win a low-volume striking battle in his last fight, but now he’ll be the smaller fighter in this next match. Padilla also looks to have advantages when it comes to speed, durability, and grappling, making this a tough spot for Nelson to succeed. Padilla is a long, skinny striker and also a BJJ brown belt who can finish Nelson from a variety of positions. He’s dangerous off his back, throws sharp elbows and knees from the clinch, and has good accuracy in his boxing. We’re pretty much always looking to bet against Nelson and this spot is no different. We like Padilla’s chances of finishing this fight early, most likely in a knockout. However, if Nelson tries to take Padilla down, there’s a good chance Padilla will submit him. However, a later round knockout is the most likely method of victory for Padilla here.
Our favorite bet here is “Fernando Padilla ITD” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Padilla is an aggressive striker and a dangerous submission threat who just landed a first round TKO win in his UFC debut, although it was arguably a quick stoppage. Nevertheless, that was good for 108 DraftKings points and 124 points on FanDuel. While we’ve only seen 101 seconds of Padilla at the UFC level and it remains to be seen how he’ll fare long term against a higher level of competition, 13 of his last 14 wins have come early and he offers clear finishing upside, both on the feet and the mat. While Nelson has gone the distance in three straight snoozers, and appears dead set on ruining fights for DFS, he’s still been finished in three of his five career losses. While Padilla rarely shoots for any takedowns, he is dangerous off his back and also lands a good amount of striking volume. His striking alone won’t be enough for him to return value in a decision, but we like his chances of finishing Nelson. The odds imply Padilla has a 68% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Nelson has been a R1 finish or bust option for as long as he’s been in the UFC and has gone just 1-4-1 since 2016 in fights that made it out of the first round. That lone victory came in his recent decision, where he only scored 63 DraftKings points. So even at his cheaper price tag, he likely needs a finish here to be useful and Nelson hasn’t put anyone away early since 2019, when he landed his only UFC knockout against the corpse of Marco Polo Reyes. Also working against him, Padilla has never been finished in 19 pro fights. That leaves us unexcited about Nelson’s outlook and the only thing he really has going for him is his lower ownership. The odds imply Nelson has a 32% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Daniel Zellhuber
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a decision win over UFC veteran Lando Vannata, Zellhuber got robbed of a first round finish after he had Vannata badly hurt and covering up on the mat in round one as Zellhuber rained down punches. However, Vannata survived with a long leash from the ref and the later rounds were far less eventful as Zellhuber cruised to a decision win. Regardless of the outcome, that was a far more impressive performance than Zellhuber’s previous fight, when he lost a decision in his UFC debut against Trey Ogden. That was the first loss of Zellhuber’s career, after he started 12-0 before joining the UFC. A year before that loss, Zellhuber won a decision over a tough Lucas Almeida on DWCS. While Zellhuber’s last three fights all went the distance, he landed five straight finishes just before that, with the last three of those ending in round one.
Now 13-1 as a pro, Zellhuber has seven wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. Both of his submission wins occurred in the first round, as did three of his knockouts victories. Three more of his knockouts occurred in round two, with the other ending in round three. He’s never been finished, with his only loss going the distance in his UFC debut.
Overall, Zellhuber is a tall, rangy fighter who’s a solid striker with dangerous kicks and also likes to look for leg locks on the mat. While he can typically rely on his striking to get opponents out of there, he’s also a BJJ black belt and is a well rounded fighter who can win fights both on the ground and the feet. He has the ability to put up big striking numbers, while mixing in occasional takedown attempts and also has a solid takedown defense. Between his DWCS appearance and his two UFC fights, he’s landed one of his three takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down once on 12 opponent attempts (91.7% defense). He’s still just 24-years-old and should be improving all the time. He trains out of Xtreme Couture in Vegas, after growing up in Mexico City, where he previously had been training at elevation.
Christos Giagos
13th UFC Fight (6-6)Giagos recently landed his first knockout since 2016, which came 95 seconds into the first round against a durable Ricky Glenn, who had previously never been knocked out in 30 pro fights. Prior to that, Giagos was the one who got finished in the first round in back-to-back fights. The first of those losses came in a TKO against an incredibly tough Arman Tsarukyan, while the second ended in a submission against the dangerous BJJ black belt in Thiago Moises. Giagos also has submission losses to Gilbert Burns and Charles Oliveira on his UFC record, so he’s faced some really tough opponents in the past. However, he’s also faced numerous terrible opponents and Giagos has had one of the most polarized strength of schedules we’ve ever seen. Giagos originally joined the UFC in 2014, but after going 1-2 he was released. After going 4-2 in his next six fights outside of the UFC, they brought him back in 2018 to lose to Charles Oliveira in 2018. Then they finally started giving him more favorable opponents and he won four of his next five fights, with all of those wins coming in teed up matchups, before losing to Tsarukyan and Moises.
Now 20-10 as a pro, Giagos has eight wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and eight decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted five times, and has three decision losses. While his last three fights all ended in round one, his previous 10 fights all made it to the second round, with eight of those going the distance. He’s been finished in four of his six UFC losses, with three of those defeats ending in round one and the other in round two.
Overall, Giagos has historically been a low-volume striker who has relied heavily on his wrestling to win fights. However, he’s been training at Kill Cliff FC for his last few fights and he’s shown some improved striking, which was most evident in his last fight as he landed his only knockout in the last seven years. He’s landed 22 takedowns on 53 attempts (41.5%) in his 12 UFC fights, but he’s just 1-5 in UFC fights where he failed to land a takedown. While he likes to wrestle a good amount, he’s not a great grappler and is very prone to getting submitted. He also has shown suspect cardio and tends to slow down later in fights. Giagos talked about how he was supposed to be on his honeymoon right now but he pushed it back a week for this fight, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll want to take a ton of damage here.
Fight Prediction:
Zellhuber will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while being nine years younger than Giagos.
Zellhuber is taller, longer, faster, stronger, smarter, younger, more durable, and has better cardio than Giagos. The one advantage Giagos has is his experience, but we’re not convinced that he’s smart enough to actually capitalize on that edge. You could also argue that Giagos has a wrestling advantage, but he’s been very prone to getting submitted, and Zellhuber is a BJJ black belt, so Giagos will run the risk of getting submitted if he tries to turn this into a wrestling match, which he likely will. Yes, Giagos’ last three submission losses all came against very high-level grapplers, but we still can’t overlook the fact that he has five submission losses on his record. He’s also been knocked out twice and Zellhuber’s last fight should have been stopped in the first round as Zellhuber pummeled Lando Vannata on the mat. The one frustrating thing about Zellhuber has been how patient he can be at times, which has been a contributing factor in why his last three fights all went the distance. However, he showed a lot of improvements from his first UFC fight to his second, and at 24 years old we expect to see an even better version of him here. His teammate, Sean Strickland, just pulled off the massive upset for the belt last week, which could help to fuel Zellhuber in this fight, in addition to representing his country on Mexican Independence Day. Giagos has been finished in 7 of his 10 pro losses and is about to leave on his honeymoon so likely won’t want to absorb any unnecessary damage if he can avoid it. We expect Giagos to come in looking to wrestle to negate the size and length advantages of Zellhuber. However, Zellhuber has shown a 91.7% takedown defense in the UFC and will also threaten submissions in the grappling exchanges. Both of those factors will make life tough on Giagos and Zellhuber is live to lock up a submission here. However, Zellhuber has been reluctant to look for submissions so far in the UFC and was content with trying to finish his last fight on the mat with ground and pound. He’s got good striking when he’s willing to let his weapons fly so a knockout is also very possible. The fact that he’s fought to three straight decisions shows that there’s still a decent chance this one also goes the distance, but we like his chances of getting Giagos out of there early.
Our favorite bet here is “Zellhuber ITD” at +135.
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DFS Implications:
Zellhuber got robbed of a first round finish in his last fight as he had Lando Vannata badly hurt and covering up on the mat, but the ref surprisingly didn’t stop the fight. Zellhuber would have put up a huge score there, but instead the fight was allowed to continue and eventually ended in a decision win for Zellhuber, where he only ended up scoring 76 DraftKings points. While he lands a good amount of striking volume, averaging 5.44 SSL/min, he’s yet to land a takedown in either of his UFC fights, on just one attempt. Until he starts mixing in more wrestling, it will be tough for him to score well without a finish. Working in his favor, Giagos has been finished in 7 of his 10 pro losses and Zellhuber has the ability to both submit him or knock him out. Zellhuber is still just 24 years old and is constantly improving, so expect to see an improved version of him every time he steps inside the Octagon. We like his chances of finding a finish here and finally scoring well in DFS. He’s also been a lower owned favorite in each of his previous UFC fights, with his DraftKings ownership checking in at 20% and 27% in those two matches, which also adds to his tournament appeal. The odds imply Zellhuber has a 70% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Giagos is coming off his first knockout win since 2016, which was good for 104 DraftKings points. He’s impressively averaged 99 points in his six UFC wins, scoring 92 or more in all of those, even in his three decision wins. We’ve never been very impressed by him and he’s proven himself to be prone to getting submitted and has suspect cardio. However, his wrestling-heavy style of fighting is conducive to scoring well on DraftKings, and he’s shown a lot of scoring potential when he wins. He’s never won a UFC fight where he entered as wider than a +145 underdog and comes into this fight at +210, but at his cheap price tag he would most likely end up in winning tournament lineups if he pulls off the upset. Recency bias will likely drive his ownership up some following his recent R1 KO win, which lowers his tournament appeal some. This also looks like a really tough stylistic matchup for him as he faces a much taller and longer opponent, who has an elite 91% takedown defense and has never been finished. So despite his scoring upside, we’re not especially interested in playing Giagos. The odds imply Giagos has a 30% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Raul Rosas Jr.
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Rosas lost a decision to a tough Christian Rodriguez this past April. Rosas came out of the gates hot and nearly locked up a rear-naked choke in the first round, but didn’t pace himself at all and then gassed out in round two. Rodriguez was able to take over at that point and control Rosas on the mat for the remainder of the fight, as he cruised to a unanimous 29-28 decision win. Prior to that, Rosas locked up a first round submission in his UFC debut against a suspect Jay Perrin, who went 0-3 in the UFC before being released. Just before that, Rosas saw the judges for the first time in his career in a decision win on DWCS when he was just 17 years old, becoming the youngest fighter to ever win a contract on the show. He amazingly was still in high school at the time, although he dropped out after getting the contract to pursue fighting full time. Rosas showed he knows how to escape guillotine chokes in that fight, as his opponent was constantly looking to wrap up his neck on takedown attempts.
Still just 7-1 as a pro, Rosas has one win by R1 TKO, five submissions, and one decision victory. Five of his six finishes came in the first round, with the other ending just before the midway point of round two. His lone loss ended in a decision. So he’s only been in two fights that lasted longer than a round and half, but both of those occurred in his last three matches. Only two of his seven wins were against opponents who came in with more than two fights of pro experience, and we’ve yet to see him beat anyone decent.
Overall, Rosas is a relentless wrestler who looks to immediately get fights to the ground and hunt for submissions. He hasn’t shown much of anything in terms of striking, averaging just 0.76 SSL/min in his last three fights. He amazingly went the full 15 minutes in his last match and still only landed two TOTAL strikes in the fight. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 8 of his 24 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while he also got taken down by his opponents twice on two attempts. He only turned pro in November 2021 and is just 18 years old, but his first two UFC fights were both on PPV cards and he’s already being added to the UFC video game, so clearly they have high hopes for him. After gassing out in his last fight, it will be interesting to see if Rosas paces himself more in this next match or if he comes firing out of the gates once again.
Terrence Mitchell
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Fresh off a quick ground and pound TKO loss in his recent UFC debut against Cameron Saaiman, Mitchell has given us no indication he belongs in the UFC and so far they are simply using him to build up young prospects. Mitchell immediately shot for a takedown in that last fight and nearly got finished with a guillotine choke in the opening 30 seconds. While he escaped and landed a takedown after, he then got reversed and finished on the mat with ground and pound shortly thereafter. Mitchell turned pro all the way back in 2009, but spent his entire pro career on the highly suspect Alaskan regional scene. The one time he fought outside of Alaska was when he went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, but that was short-lived as he got knocked out by Kai Kara-France 30 seconds into his first fight on the show. He took the rest of 2016 and all of 2017 off before returning to the Alaska Fighting Championship for one match in 2018, where he won by first round submission. However, he took the next 4+ years off, before returning in 2022 up a weight class at 135 lb. However, that fight was canceled when his opponent “refused to enter the cage.” It was originally ruled a DQ win for Mitchell but has since been overturned to a canceled fight in the last few months. Mitchell then notched a pair of first round submissions in early 2023, leading up to his recent loss in his UFC debut.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Mitchell’s record is a little sketchy and his KO and submission totals vary depending on where you look, which is always a huge red flag. According to Taplogy, he has six wins by KO/TKO and eight submission victories. All of his wins came in under eight minutes. He has two official KO/TKO losses, but also got knocked out in the first round on TUF in 2016. He lost the only decision he’s ever been to, which was all the way back in 2010. Mitchell started his career at 125 lb, before moving up to 135 lb in 2022.
Overall, Mitchell is a tall, skinny/chinny fighter who has only been past the second round once in his career and rarely makes it out of round one. He’s sort of well-rounded, with his main issue being his suspect durability. He uses his length decently well as he mixes in leg kicks, but lately he’s been looking to quickly get fights to the mat and hunt for submissions. All of his wins came against a stupidly low-level of competition and both of the times he faced a legitimate opponent he got finished in the first round. At 33 years old, Mitchell likely is who he is at this stage in his career and we probably shouldn’t expect many major improvements. With that said, he did take his recent debut on just over two weeks’ notice, while he had more time to prepare for this one.
Fight Prediction:
Mitchell will have a 1” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while also being 15 years older than the 18-year-old Rosas.
The UFC wants to build Rosas back up after his recent loss and who better to do that with than a fraudulent Alaskan fighter. Mitchell has been dominated by every legitimate fighter he’s ever faced and made a career out of beating up guys off the street on the Alaskan regional scene. While Mitchell likes to engage in grappling exchanges himself, we saw him immediately fall into a guillotine attempt in his last fight and then get flattened out face down on the mat and finished with ground and pound shortly thereafter. While Rosas has his own deficiencies, he’s a solid grappler and should be able to win the grappling exchanges and work his way to a finish. It most likely comes by submission, but Mitchell gave up so quickly once he got flattened out in his last fight that a ground and pound finish isn’t impossible. Either way, we like Rosas to finish Mitchell early in this fight, most likely in a first round submission. However, considering Mitchell just got finished in the first round of his UFC debut after getting too aggressive early and Rosas just gassed out in round two after pushing too hard for the finish in round one, there are reasons to think that one or both of these two could come in a little more conservatively to try and avoid the the same outcome. The betting lines don’t appear to be accounting for that, as Rosa’s first round submission prop is juiced to the gills, making this a tough fight to bet unless you’re willing to throw a dart or two at the fight lasting longer than expected, which obviously we are.
Our favorite bet here is “Rosas/Mitchell Fight Starts R2 - Yes” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Rosas Jr.’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting has a safer floor on DraftKings compared to FanDuel and his decision win on DWCS would have been good for 104 points on DraftKings, but just 55 points on FanDuel. With that said, six of his seven career wins have come early, including a first round submission in his UFC debut that was good for 106 DraftKings points and 119 points on FanDuel, so he clearly has the ability to score well on both sites. He’s now coming off his first career loss and gassed out pretty hard in the second round, so there’s always a chance he comes into this next fight with a slightly more patient approach. However, we’re less concerned with that given the cupcake matchup against a fellow fast starter. Even if Rosas wanted to slow this fight down to extend his cardio, Mitchell likely wouldn’t let that happen and we expect to see another fast start here with Rosas quickly looking to engage in the grappling. The UFC set him up for success and Rosas would have to completely fall on his face to botch this. We fully expect him to finish Mitchell quickly, the only question will be whether or not he gets priced out of tournament winning lineups as the most expensive fighter on the card. That’s entirely possible if Rosa gets another efficient finish like he did in his debut, but it will likely come down to how the other expensive fighters fare. The odds imply Rosas has an 85% chance to win, a 74% chance to land a finish, and a 53% chance it comes in round one.
Mitchell’s 100% finishing rate offers some theoretical upside, the only problem is that all of his pro wins came against low-level Alaskan fighters. Mitchell tried to go on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, but got immediately knocked out by Kai Kara-France 30 seconds into his first fight on the show. The only other time he faced a legitimate opponent was in his recent UFC debut and he again got finished in the first round. Mitchell lacks any sort of durability and has also looked pretty helpless from bottom position on the mat, so he appears reliant on landing quick finishes before either of those defensive liabilities get exposed in fights. Until he shows that his regional finishing abilities can translate to the big show, we won’t have much interest in playing him. The only thing he really has going for him is his low ownership and he would be a massive leverage play if he could somehow pull off the upset. The odds imply Mitchell has a 15% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Jack Della Maddalena
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Della Maddalena squeaked by with a split decision win in his last fight as he defeated a UFC newcomer in Bassil Hafez, who really tested the defensive wrestling of Della Maddalena. That fight was put together on short notice after Della Maddalena’s previous two opponents dropped out on the previous week’s card. Della Maddalena had originally been scheduled to face Sean Brady, but he dropped out and Josiah Harrell stepped in. It looked like that fight would happen on July 8th, as both fighters successfully weighed in, but then Harrell wasn’t medically cleared after weigh-ins and the fight was scrapped. Della Maddalena had made the trip all the way from Australia to Las Vegas and didn’t want to go home empty handed, so he hung around and waited for a new opponent, which the UFC found. However, that forced Della Maddalena to cut weight twice in a week’s span, which obviously isn’t ideal. Hafez was able to take Della Maddalena down on 3 of his 20 attempts, and finished with nearly seven minutes of control time. However, all three of those takedowns came in the first round and he also wasn’t doing any real damage on the mat, as Della Maddalena finished ahead in significant strikes 83-32 and in total strikes 149-48. Della Maddalena has won 15 straight fights, finishing 13 of those opponents, after losing his first two pro matches. He finished his first four UFC opponents in under three and a half minutes, before going the distance in his last match. While two of those early wins were complete layups, his finishes over Ramazan Emeev and Randy Brown were more impressive, and we even saw a rare submission out of him in his win over Brown. Prior to his recent decision win, the only other time he required the judges in his career was when he went on DWCS in 2021 and won a decision against an incredibly durable Ange Loosa, who’s never been finished in his career. Prior to joining the UFC, Della Maddalena was the five-time Eternal MMA Welterweight Champion in Australia.
Now 15-2 as a pro, Della Maddalena has 11 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. He got knocked out in the third round of his 2016 pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round of his next fight, but hasn’t lost since then. Eight of Della Maddalena’s 13 finishes came in round one, with the other five ending in round two, and he’s only seen the third round three times in his career, and only twice in his last 16 matches.
Overall, Della Maddalena relies mostly on his crisp boxing to win fights, but he is a BJJ brown belt and also has some Judo experience. He showed in his submission over Brown that he’ll wrap up a neck given the opportunity, but he’s generally looking to knock opponents out. He’s a former Australian rugby player and an all around tough and durable fighter. He averages an impressive 7.27 SSL/min and does a good job of mixing in devastating body shots with his punching combinations. His striking is primarily boxing based and we haven’t seen him mix in a ton of leg kicks, although did look to attack the long legs of Randy Brown some in his second most recent match, after only landing one leg kick in his previous three UFC fights and only one more in his last match. Della Maddalena failed to attempt a takedown in his first four UFC fights, before going one for two in his last match. He also went 0 for 3 on his attempts on DWCS, leaving him with just a 20% takedown accuracy. In those same six fights, his opponents got him down on 5 of 27 attempts twice on seven attempts (81.5% defense).
Kevin Holland
20th UFC Fight (12-6, NC)Holland is seven weeks removed from a first round submission win over an aging Michael Chiesa, who’s lost three straight and looked absolutely terrible in the fight and tapped as soon as Holland locked up a Brabo choke on the mat. Three months prior to that, Holland landed a third round knockout against another old veteran in Santiago Ponzinibbio, who’s lost three of his last four fights. That snapped a two fight skid, after Holland’s corner stopped his previous fight after the fourth round as Holland was struggling to defend himself against Stephen Thompson after breaking his hand earlier in that December 2022 main event. That was the first KO/TKO loss of Holland’s career, however, just prior to that he got submitted in the first round by Khamzat Chimaev. Following the loss to Chimaev, Holland casually announced his retirement from MMA, but his ride into the sunset was brief, as he then accepted his next fight just a few weeks later. Leading up to the pair of losses, Holland notched back-to-back second round finishes, after dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in the UFC. Both of those finishes also came against old veterans in Alex Oliveira, who was in the midst of a five fight skid and got cut following the loss, and Tim Means, who was kicking off a three fight skid. Holland’s move down to 170 lb was prompted by three straight defeats on the mat in 2021, although the last of those was overturned to a No Contest due to an accidental clash of heads against Kyle Daukaus that began the finishing sequence. Regardless of the official outcome, it had become clear that Holland didn’t stand much of a chance against grapplers at 185 lb.
Now 25-9 as a pro, Holland has 14 wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and four decision wins. Of his 14 knockout wins, eight came in round one, two ended in round two, and four occurred in round three. He has one TKO loss, three submission defeats, and five decision losses. He would have four submission losses on his record, but a 2021 R1 submission loss to Kyle Daukaus was ruled a No Contest after an accidental clash of heads began the finishing sequence. Holland started at 170 lb when he turned pro in 2014, but would take fights anywhere from 170 lb to 195 lb. He began settling in at 185 lb in 2016, although did drop back down to 170 lb for a decision loss in 2017. However, after starting 8-4 plus a No Contest in the UFC at 185 lb, Holland dropped back down 170 lb in early 2022. He’s since gone 4-2, but one of those losses was at a 180 Catchweight against Chimaev, so Holland is 4-1 in the UFC at 170 lb. While all six of his fights have ended early since he dropped down to 170 lb, four of those made it out of the first round, with the two exceptions being his submission loss to Chimaev and his submission win over Chiesa.
Overall, Holland is a second degree black belt in Kung Fu and primarily a striker, but is also a BJJ black belt and does have some submission skills, even if he’s not a good wrestler. He’s rangy, powerful, and dangerous on the feet, in addition to being very durable. His defensive wrestling has clearly been his biggest weakness in the past, but the UFC has been far more merciful with the matchups they’ve given him at 170 lb compared to 185 lb when it comes to fighting wrestlers. The one exception was when Holland took on Chimaev on short notice and got smoked in 133 seconds. Most of Holland’s UFC losses have come on the mat and Stephen Thompson is the only fighter to defeat him in a striking battle. And in fairness, Holland broke his hand early in that fight. While Holland doesn’t look to take fights to the mat very often, he has landed 12 takedowns on 29 attempts (41.4% accuracy) between his 19 UFC matches and his DWCS appearance. However, he’s only landed two takedowns in his last eight fights. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on 43 of their 92 attempts (53.2% defense). In Holland’s last 20 fights, the only two opponents to unsuccessfully try to get him down were Joaquin Buckley and Michael Chiesa. Holland is 6-5 in UFC fights where he’s been taken down (not counting the No Contest where he got taken down and submitted), but 6-1 when his opponents fail to get him down. Of those five losses where he gave up at least one takedown, three went the distance and two ended in submissions. Now he’ll face a striker who rarely attempts many takedowns.
Fight Prediction:
Holland will have a 4” height advantage and 8” reach advantage.
This looks like the best fight on the card as we get two dangerous but durable strikers squaring off against one another. Holland is currently ranked #13 at Welterweight, while Della Maddalena is right behind him at #14. Della Maddalena throws more volume (7.27 SSL/min vs. 4.11 SSL/min) and does a great job of landing violent body shots, but Holland is much taller and longer and could give Della Maddalena trouble closing the distance and finding his striking range. The larger cage could play into Holland’s favor as well if he’s trying to stay on the outside of Della Maddalena punching range. However, Holland can also be a bit of a loose cannon and it’s possible he’ll just stand and trade at times, opposed to fighting a more strategic game plan. We haven’t seen Della Maddalena’s durability tested at the UFC level, as four of his UFC fights ended in under four minutes and the other was against a guy who did nothing but try to take him down. That leaves some question marks surrounding his chin, and Holland packs a ton of power at 170 lb. On the other side of things, Holland has proven himself to be insanely durable and the whole way we see Della Maddalena finishing him is if he can land the perfect liver shot that just shuts Holland down. While that’s not impossible, it is unlikely, and if Della Maddalena wins this fight it more likely comes from him outlanding his way to victory in a decision. While we have no reason to really question Della Maddalena’s durability, it is still largely unproven and that unknown leaves a chance that Holland can finish him, which would most likely come in a late round knockout. With that said, we actually like this one to end in a close, hard-fought decision that could go either way. With neither guy adding much in the way of wrestling, the winner will likely be determined by who can control the range, as Holland has the opportunity to pick Della Maddalena apart from the outside, but will struggle to keep pace with Della Maddalena if this is fought in a phone booth. While Della Maddalena may be slightly more likely to get his hand raised with the judges based on historical striking numbers, we prefer Holland’s finishing chances and also think his size could play a major factor. At plus money, Holland looks like the side to bet at this point, especially as his odds continue to get wider, but we will not be surprised if Della Maddalena wins a greasy decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Holland’s ML” at +125.
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DFS Implications:
Della Maddalena has averaged 108 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with four of those ending in the first round and scoring 107 or more points. We finally saw someone go the distance with him in his last match, where Della Maddalena scored just 84 points. In fairness to him, that’s not a terrible score when you consite he got taken down three times and controlled for nearly seven minutes in the fight. Now he’ll be going against a striker in Holland, who’s unlikely to be looking for many takedowns. That should give Della Maddalena more time to work on the feet, although Holland only averages 2.96 SSA/min and only one of his 19 UFC opponents landed more than 69 significant strikes against him. Holland’s size and reach could give Della Maddalena trouble closing the distance and the larger cage will leave Holland with more room to move around. Holland is also insanely durable and his only TKO loss was in a post R4 corner stoppage against Stephen Thompson, in a fight where Holland broke his hand early on and was rendered largely defenseless. So while Della Maddalena has been a dangerous finisher and a DFS gold mine, outside of his last fight, this looks like a tough spot for Della Maddalena to go off. It will be interesting to see where his ownership checks in after finally looking human in his last match, but he’s historically been insanely popular, with his DraftKings ownership checking in at 55%, 36%, 61%, 39%, and 40% in his five UFC fights. On a smaller card where it will be much more challenging to create unique lineups, Della Maddalena looks like an interesting fade in tournaments. The odds imply Della Maddalena has a 58% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Holland is reliant on landing well timed finishes to really score well in DFS, as he’s only landed two takedowns in his last eight fights and averages just 4.11 SSL/min. While nine of his 12 UFC wins came early, he still only averaged 98 DraftKings points in those 12 victories and only hit the century mark four times. He scored “just” 95 DraftKings points in his recent first round submission win, after only scoring 82 points in his previous third round TKO victory, and only 88 points in a round two submission in his third most recent win. The last time he won a decision was in 2020, and he scored 84 points in that fight. So he’s been consistent but unspectacular for the most part. However, now he’s getting a pace-up matchup and is priced as the underdog, so he may not need to put up a massive score to end up in winning lineups. Just keep in mind, if we get a slate with multiple underdogs scoring well, Holland could pull off the upset and still get left out of winning lineups. Also, Holland’s last four wins were all against old struggling veterans and this will be a much tougher test than any of those fights. The odds imply Holland has a 42% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Valentina Shevchenko
16th UFC Fight (12-3)Shevchenko is coming off a shocking fourth round submission loss to Alexa Grasso, where Shevchenko entered as a massive -900 favorite. Shevchenko was able to find success on the mat in that fight, as she took Grasso down four times and controlled her for five and a half minutes, while also finishing ahead in significant strikes. However, Shevchenko didn’t look like herself on the feet and Grasso seemed to be the one landing the bigger shots in the striking exchanges. Nevertheless, Shevchenko led 29-28 after three rounds, before Grasso surprisingly pulled off just the second submission of her career. Prior to that, Shevchenko nearly lost another title fight, as she barely scraped by in a close split decision against Taila Santos. Shevchenko appeared to lose the first three rounds in that fight, but got bailed out by two of the three judges, who gave her round two despite getting taken down and controlled for nearly four minutes, while also getting reversed on the mat at one point. That was Shevchenko’s ninth straight win since moving down to 125 lb following her second loss to Amanda Nunes at 135 lb back in 2017. Shevchenko started that winning streak with a second round submission win over Priscila Cachoeira in 2018, before winning the Flyweight belt over Joanna Jedrzejczyk later that year and then defending it seven times before losing it to Grasso. Five of her nine UFC wins at Flyweight came early, with all of those finishes occuring in the later rounds, including three in round two, one in round three, and the other in round four. The last four of those finishes all ended in KO/TKOs and she hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 in her first fight after dropping down to Flyweight.
Now 23-4 as a pro, Shevchenko has eight wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and eight decision victories. She’s coming off the first submission loss of her career, while her lone TKO loss came in a 2010 second round doctor stoppage after Liz Carmouche landed an upkick that split Shevchenko open above her eye. Shevchenko’s other two losses both ended in decisions against Amanda Nunes when Shevchenko was still fighting up at 135 lb. The most recent of those was a five-round split-decision for the Bantamweight belt. After fighting almost all of her early career at 135 lb, Shevchenko dropped down to 125 lb following the second loss to Nunes. All 15 of Shevchenko’s UFC fights have made it out of the first round, with 11 seeing round three, and eight going into the championship rounds. Her first five UFC fights were at 135 lb (3-2), while her last 10 have been at 125 lb. Eight of her 15 UFC fights went the distance, two ended in second round submission wins, one ended in a fourth round submission loss, and four have finished in KO/TKO wins.
Fighting in her 10th straight title fight and 11th of her UFC career (8-2), Shevchenko’s first title shot ended in a decision loss to Amanda Nunes at 135 lb. Shevchenko then dropped down to 125 lb and after submitting Priscila Cachoeira was thrust into a title fight against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, which Shevchenko won by decision. Shevchenko followed that up with a second round KO win over Jessica Eye, a decision victory over Liz Carmouche, a third round TKO over Katlyn Chookagian, a decision win over Jennifer Maia, a second round TKO against Jessica Andrade, a fourth round TKO over Lauren Murphy, and a split decision win over Taila Santos, leading up to her recent R4 submission loss to Alexa Grasso. So four of her eight title fight wins ended in decisions and the other four ended in mid round KO/TKOs. Shevchenko also had two non-title fight five-round matches at 135 lb prior to her loss to Nunes, which ended in a decision win over Holly Holm and a second round submission win over Julianna Pena.
Overall, Shevchenko offers a dangerous combination of striking and grappling, but is now 35 years old and underwhelmed in each of her last two performances. Both of those were tougher matchups, but you still have to wonder if Shevchenko will ever regain her past form or if her best days are well behind her. It’s been two years since her last dominant performance and that came against an unimpressive Lauren Murphy. Historically, Shevchenko has done a good job of seamlessly stitching together combinations of punches and kicks, while doing a great job of controlling the distance and counter striking. She’s also landed at least one takedown in all of her UFC fights except her second match against Amanda Nunes. Since moving down to 125 lb, Shevchenko landed 35 takedowns on 50 attempts (70% accuracy). Outside of going 5 for 14 on takedowns against Jedrzejczyk, Shevchenko has amazingly landed 30 of her 36 attempts (83.3%) in her other nine UFC Flyweight fights. On the other side of things, in her 10 UFC Flyweight fights she’s been taken down four times on 13 attempts (69.2%). Also notable since dropping down to Flyweight, the only opponent to land more than 59 significant strikes against Shevchenko was also Jedrzejczyk, who landed 78. Shevchenko has impressively absorbed an average of just 1.67 SS/min in her 10 fights since moving down a weight class, down from her already impressive career average of 1.99 SSA/min. After seeing Shevchenko struggle in her last two fights, it will be interesting to see how she looks here. She’s been training out at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand to prepare and she seems focussed on recapturing the belt, so it will just be a question of whether or not she’s fallen off a cliff physically.
Alexa Grasso
12th UFC Fight (8-3)Grasso has won all five of her Flyweight fights since moving up from Strawweight in 2020 following a 2019 decision loss to Carla Esparza. That run started with a pair of three-round decision wins over Ji Yeon Kim and Maycee Barber, followed by a first round submission victory over the highly submittable Joanne Wood. Grasso then won a five-round decision over Viviane Araujo, leading up to her recent fourth round submission victory over Shevchenko. The fight against Araujo seemed a lot closer than the score cards indicated, with the striking numbers almost even in four of the five rounds, and Araujo landing two takedowns in the other round. However, those were the only two takedowns Araujo was able to land on 10 attempts. Prior to moving up a weight class, Grasso went 3-3 at 115 lb, with five of those fights going the distance and the other ending in a first round submission loss to Tatiana Suarez.
Now 16-3 as a pro, Grasso has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and 10 decision victories. Three of her four KO/TKO wins came in her first three pro fights against opponents who entered with no experience and the other was in her 6th pro match, back in 2014. She’s never been knocked out and the only time she’s been finished was in a 2018 R1 submission loss to Tatiana Suarez. Her other two losses both went the distance.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Grasso’s career, with the previous two coming in her last two matches. The first of those ended in a decision win over Viviane Araujo, with the second ending in a submission win over Valentina Shevchenko in the final minute of round four, so they both lasted over 19 minutes.
Overall, Grasso is a solid boxer and has talked about how she’s been working on her grappling to become a more well rounded fighter. The stats back that up, as Grasso only landed one takedown in her first six UFC fights, but has landed three in her last five matches. Also, both of her career submission wins occurred in her last three fights. In terms of her defensive grappling/wrestling, she’s been taken down 21 times on 54 attempts (61.1% defense) in her 11 UFC fights, and her last seven opponents who tried to take her down all landed multiple of their attempts. She’s been training with solid wrestlers/grapplers like Loopy Godinez and Diego Lopes at Lobo Gym MMA, and at 30 years old we expect Grasso to still be improving as she enters the prime of her career.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” with a 66” reach, but Grasso is five years younger than the 35-year-old Shevchenko.
Coming off the submission win over Shevchenko and now fighting on Mexican Independence Day, Grasso’s confidence has to be at an all time high as she defends the Flyweight belt for the first time in a rematch against an aging Shevchenko.
In their last fight, Grasso fought a lot of success on the feet, but Shevchenko took Grasso down four times and controlled her for five and a half minutes. Shevchenko also finished ahead in significant strikes 87-59, while Grasso led in total strikes 182-167. Grasso won the first round, but Shevchenko won rounds two and three on all three scorecards. In round four, Shevchenko was ahead in significant strikes 22-13 and in total strikes 32-20 before Grasso hopped on her back and locked in a rear-naked choke late in the round as Shevchenko missed on a spinning kick. If Shevechenko could have survived on the mat for another 26 seconds, at worst the fight would have been 2-2 going into the final round and it could have been 3-1 in favor of Shevchenko depending on how the judges scored the fourth round.
It will be interesting to see if Grasso can do a better job of defending takedowns here, and she’ll be in trouble if she can’t. Shevchenko looked pretty bad in that last match, but was still winning through her wrestling. Grasso can definitely win a striking battle, and showed she can threaten to finish fights on the mat, but Shevchenko could easily rely on her wrestling to win the belt back. We expect to see an improved version of Grasso, but it’s tougher to know what version of Shevchenko shows up. Maybe we’ll get a reinvigorated and motivated Shevchenko, or perhaps she’s continued her decline, only time will tell. That uncertainty leaves this as a somewhat volatile matchup that will likely hinge on Shevchenko’s ability to land takedowns. Her 64% career takedown accuracy combined with the 61% takedown defense of Grasso is encouraging in that regard, and after entering their last matchup as a -900 favorite, Shevchenko can now be had at just -165. Whether that’s value or a trap remains to be seen, but we like Shevchenko’s chances of leaning on her wrestling to win this fight. A ground and pound finish is possible, but we’ll say she gets her hand raised in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Shevchenko/Grasso FGTD” at -116.
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DFS Implications:
Despite losing their last fight, Shevchenko was on pace to score 133 DraftKings points and 117 points on FanDuel if she had won a decision instead of getting submitted late in the fourth round. Prior to that, she won all nine of her UFC Flyweight fights, averaging 115 DraftKings points in those victories, with seven scores of 107 or more and three slate-breaking totals of 134 or greater. Despite getting taken down three times and controlled for nearly nine minutes by Taila Santos in her second most recent fight, Shevchenko still scored 115 DraftKings points in a split decision win. While it’s fair to debate the extent and rate of Shevchenko’s decline, you can’t argue with the fact that she does a great job of filling up the stat sheet and landing a ton of total strikes, even if her significant striking totals are more modest. That typically results in her scoring better on DraftKings than Fanduel and while her last decision win was good for 115 DraftKings points, it only scored 89 points on FanDuel. After seeing how the first fight against Grasso played out, we expect Shevchenko to come in looking to wrestle once again. That could leave her more dependent on finding a finish or notching a huge takedown total to put up a big FanDuel score, while she can still put up a huge DraftKings score in a decision through control time and total strikes. The only two times she’s struggled to score well in a win at Flyweight were in a poorly timed early third round finish of Katlyn Chookagian in 2020 and a bizarrely low-volume 2019 five-round decision against Liz Carmouche, which was notably a rematch of a 2010 fight that Carmouche won by TKO. And just before dropping down to 125 lb in 2018, Shevchenko lost a five-round decision in a rematch against Amanda Nunes and only scored 31 DraftKings points in the loss. That at least creates a narrative that Shevchenko’s prior rematches have all been low-volume, low scoring decisions. Nevertheless, if Shevchenko isn’t completely washed, which we don’t really think she is, then this looks like a good spot for her to find wrestling success and score well if she wins. The odds imply Shevchenko has a 61% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Grasso scored just 91 DraftKings points in her recent late fourth round submission win over Shevchenko and has largely struggled to score especially well throughout her UFC career. She’s gone the distance in 8 of her 11 UFC fights and only has two early wins since 2014. The first of those finishes came in a 2022 R1 submission over Joanne Wood, where Grasso scored a career best 117 DraftKings points, but that’s the only time Grasso has ever hit the century mark. She came just short of it in her second most recent fight, where she scored 99 points in a five-round decision win over Viviane Araujo. Grasso was on pace to score 95 DraftKings points had she gone on to win a decision over Shevchenko in that last match. While there’s a good chance that would be enough for her to end up in winning lineups at her cheap price tag, she could also easily get left out if multiple other underdogs score well. She doesn’t have the same sort of ceiling in this fight that Shevchenko does, and the potential for Shevchenko to control Grasso for periods of time is concerning. However, Grasso is the younger fighter and the Mexican champion competing on Mexican Independence Day, so a lot of the narratives are playing in her favor. There’s certainly a real chance that Grasso will look better than last time and Shevchenko will look worse, as one of them is entering their prime, while the other is past it. That raises the theoretical scoring ceiling for Grasso some, but we’re still concerned about how her defensive wrestling will hold up. The odds imply Grasso has a 39% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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