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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Pete Rodriguez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)With just five pro fights to his name and coming off a R1 KO defeat in his UFC debut, Rodriguez has never been in a fight that lasted longer than three minutes. He made his UFC debut on short notice against a really tough opponent in Jack Della Maddalena, and struggled to get anything going in that match before getting finished for the first time in his short career.
In Rodriguez’s last fight, Della Maddalena did a good job of controlling the distance as he effortlessly pieced Rodriguez up from the outside. Della Maddalena finished ahead 43-25 in striking in a fight that lasted just three minutes, landing a blistering 14.41 SS/min. No takedowns were attempted in the match and it played out as a pure kickboxing battle.
Now 4-1 as a pro, Rodriguez has four first round knockout wins and one first round knockout loss. All of his wins have ended in less than half a round, with two of them ending in 41 seconds or less. His victories all came against low-level opponents without much experience, so it’s hard to take too much away from them.
Overall, Rodriguez is a one-dimensional power puncher without much experience. He’s just 25 years old and it’s bizarre that the UFC even brought him on with so little experience. The reason they did is because they needed someone to face Jack Della Maddalena on short notice, it’s just surprising there wasn’t anyone more qualified. Despite all of that, Rodriguez checks in as the biggest favorite on the card as he faces another fighter who has no business being in the UFC.
Mike Jackson
4th UFC Fight (1-1, NC)Coming off a bizarre DQ win, Jackson is not really a pro fighter as he’s actually a photographer for the LFA and an MMA media member. He made his pro and UFC debut in February 2016 against Mickey Gall and got dropped and then choked out in just 45 seconds. He then didn’t fight again for two and a half years until he took on former WWE cast member CM Punk in June 2018, where Jackson won a decision. Despite winning that fight, Dana White said afterwards that Jackson would never fight again in the UFC. White complained that Jackson was just goofing around and never looking for a finish, which is true in fairness and it was an absolutely terrible fight where Jackson appeared completely disinterested. Despite what White said at the time, Jackson did end up fighting again, when he took on Dean Barry this past April.
In his last fight, Jackson never really got any offense of his own going but was able to initially evade much of the attacks coming at him from Dean Barry. However, he took a spinning kick to the dick (his words) two minutes into the first round that paused the action. After action resumed, Barry began to find more success and dropped Jackson a minute later. As Jackson tried to engage in the clinch, Barry pushed off on his face and inadvertently stuck his fingers in Jackson’s eye. At that point Jackson said he couldn’t continue and due to the foul the referee interestingly decided to rule the fight a DQ opposed to a No Contest, despite the foul appearing unintentional. The match ended with Barry ahead 36-18 in significant strikes and 39-18 in total strikes, while Jackson failed to land his only takedown attempt.
Now 1-1 plus a No Contest as a pro, Jackson has one win by DQ, another victory that was overturned to a No Contest when Jackson tested positive for THC, and a R1 submission loss in his pro debut against Mickey Gall.
Overall, Jackson has some experience in boxing and kickboxing but doesn’t seem all that interested in pursuing a fighting career and is now 37 years old with just three pro fights to his name. It’s confusing why he’s even on the UFC roster, and it seems more like some sort of technicality that the UFC is simply allowing to run its course. It’s hard to point to anything that Jackson excels at, but his background is in striking and photography for what it’s worth. He seemed to be looking for a way out in his last fight and the UFC will likely be looking to cut Jackson with a loss in this next matchup.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 5” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, but Rodriguez is 12 years younger than the 37 year-old Jackson.
With just eight combined pro fights between these two guys this is clearly an ultra low level matchup that has no business being on a UFC card, but here we are once again trying to take a serious approach to a laughable Mike Jackson fight. We don’t fully know what to expect from either one of these two based on how little experience they have, but Rodriguez should be looking for a quick knockout on the feet, while Jackson will be trying to evade contact and likely get the fight to the ground. Rodriguez is a much more dangerous striker, but he’s also never been in a fight that lasted longer than three minutes and hasn’t done anything to impress us to this point. Both guys have durability concerns and we have no idea what Rodriguez’s cardio will look like as the fight goes on. While we expect Rodriguez to knock Jackson out early, it’s hard to be very confident in him based on how little experience he has. It’s certainly possible he either gasses out or gets taken down and controlled on the mat. We’ll still say Rodriguez lands a first round knockout, but this fight has chaos written all over it.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Starts R2” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Rodriguez has never been in a fight that lasted longer than three minutes, but also only has five pro fights to his name. He looked bad in his recent UFC debut where he got knocked out midway through round one in what was his first career loss. Now he’ll face a much, much, much, MUCH easier opponent, but there are still more questions than answers surrounding Rodriguez. We have no idea what his cardio looks like later on in fights or what kind of ground game he has. Nevertheless, the oddsmakers weren’t offering any discounts based on those uncertainties as Rodriguez checks in as the largest favorite on the slate by a wide margin. Therefore, he’s also the most expensive DFS play. Yes, he’s facing a fake professional fighter, but there are still lots of ways Rodriguez fails to crack winning lineups here, whether that’s failing to find a first round knockout or landing a finish and still getting priced out. However, he also has a huge ceiling—in case that wasn’t obvious when we pointed out that he’s facing a fake professional fighter. In the end, when you stick two inexperienced guys in a cage with 4 ounce gloves it’s automatically a higher variance spot, but there’s a good chance Rodriguez finds a first round knockout here and puts up a big score. The odds imply he has an 83% chance to win, a 70% chance to land a finish, and a 48% chance it comes in round one.
Jackson is coming off a DQ win that easily could have been ruled a No Contest and probably should have been. Had that been the case he would have scored just seven DraftKings points, but instead walked away with 97. Prior to that, he scored 87 DraftKings points in a 2018 decision victory against another fake pro fighter in Phil Brooks AKA CM Punk. Jackson has given us no indication that he can hang in an actual professional fight, but he’s now going against an opponent in Rodriguez who only has five pro fights to his name with none of those making it to the three minute mark. So it’s hard to know what this fight will look like if it hits the second round and it’s always possible Rodriguez has non-existent cardio and goes full Randy Costa in round two. That leaves this as somewhat of a high variance spot if Jackson can survive the opening minutes, but the most likely outcome is that he gets knocked out early on. The last time Jackson was on a slate, he ended up in the winning lineup, so clearly it’s not impossible, while it is highly unlikely. The odds imply he has a 17% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Tatsuro Taira
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a decision win in his recent UFC debut, Taira defeated another debuting fighter in Carlos Candelario. Prior to that, Taira won all 10 of his pre-UFC fights on the Japanese regional scene after turning pro when he was just 18 years old.
In his last fight, we saw a slow start with minimal striking, with Taira only able to land one of his five takedown attempts in the first round. He actually never officially attempted another takedown in the match, but was able to land three reversals and a knockdown in the later rounds, as he didn’t need to land a takedown to take control of the fight on the mat. While he was unable to find a finish, he ended the fight with nearly seven minutes of control time and three official submission attempts, while also leading in significant strikes 57-9 and in total strikes 89-21 as he cruised to a unanimous decision win.
Still undefeated with an 11-0 pro record, Taira has three wins by TKO, five submissions, and three decision wins. One of those decision victories came in a two-round fight that actually took place down at 115 lb, which is something you rarely see in men’s professional MMA. The only times Taira has been in fights that lasted longer than 10 minutes were in his recent UFC debut at 125 lb and a 2020 three-round decision that took place at 135 lb. In between those two decisions, he landed three straight first round submission victories and all five of his career submission wins have ended in round one. Two of his three TKO wins also came in round one, with the other ending 19 seconds into round two.
Overall, Taira relies mostly on his grappling but isn’t helpless on the feet and throws crisp leg strikes. At just 22 years old his level of experience remains somewhat of a concern and it will be interesting to see how he fares as he begins to face tougher competition.
CJ Vergara
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After losing a decision to Ode Osbourne in his November 2021 UFC debut, Vergara won a split decision over a talented debuting prospect in Kleydson Rodrigues in his last match. Vergara has now won six of his last seven fights, and while both of his UFC fights went the distance, he landed five straight knockouts prior to joining the organization. Four of those five finishes occurred in the later rounds.
In his last fight, Vergara got taken down in round one but did a good job of returning to his feet after not spending much time on the mat. Rodrigues tried to take Vergara down again in round two, but Vergara reversed the attempt and ended up in top position, where he spent four minutes beating up Rodrigues for essentially the entire round before Rodrigues was able to reverse the position in the final minute and then return to his feet. Rodrigues was clearly gassing at that point, but was able to land a takedown in round three and control Vergara for nearly half the round. Despite looking exhausted, Rodrigues continued to be aggressive down the stretch, but Vergara showed his durability and never looked hurt. The third round was close after each fighter won an earlier round, but two of the judges thought Vergara did enough to win the match, despite trailing in significant strikes, takedowns, submission attempts, reversals, and control time in the final round. The fight ended with Rodrigues ahead 81-71 in significant strikes, but Vergara led 155-93 in total strikes. Rodrigues landed two of his seven takedown attempts with over three minutes of control time, while notching a submission attempt and two reversals. Vergara never attempted any takedowns of his own.
Now 10-3-1 as a pro, Vergara has six wins by KO and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2018 first round rear-naked choke, while his other two losses both went the distance. One of those decisions was a split-decision against UFC fighter Jonathan Martinez and the other occurred in his UFC debut. He’s often struggled to hit 125 lb with multiple weight misses on his record and he’s also competed up at 135 lb some in the past, as well as having multiple Catchweight fights. With that said, he made weight in his last match after missing in his debut.
Overall, Vergara looks to be more or less of a one-dimensional striker who likes to push the pace, but doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling. However, he’s done a good job of defending takedowns and has only been taken down three times on 15 opponent attempts (80% defense) in his last three fights going back to his DWCS match. He’s looked very durable to this point, as he went the distance against two dangerous strikers in his first two UFC fights.
UPDATE: Vergara missed weight by 3 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Taira will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. Vergara is nine years older than the 22-year-old Taira.
Taira will be looking to get this fight to the ground, but it may not be easy against the 80% takedown defense of Vergara. If Vergara can keep it standing he has a good chance of outpacing Taira in the striking exchanges and pulling off the upset with either a late knockout or in a decision. Vergara has been choked out in the first round once in the past, which is how Taira looks to end fights, so if Taira can get him down early there is a chance he can take Vergara’s back and find an early submission. We’re expecting a close fight here and as long as Vergara doesn’t get choked out early he should have a decent shot at pulling off the upset. However, his big weight miss has us nervous about picking him so we’re still going with Taira by either submission or in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Taira R1 SUB” at +800.
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DFS Implications:
Taira is a patient striker on the feet, which isn’t great for DFS, but he’s an aggressive grappler on the mat and landed three straight first round submissions prior to his recent decision win in his UFC debut. That decision was still good for 97 DraftKings points, just keep in mind he required two reversals and a knockdown to get there. He’s still just 22 years old, so there’s always going to be some concern when he gets locked in a cage with grown men, but Taira was able to hold his own in his recent debut. This doesn’t look like the best matchup for him to find a ton of grappling success, as Vergara has shown a solid 80% takedown defense in his last three fights and has appeared quite durable as well. All eight of Taira’s early wins have come in under six minutes, including seven in round one, which is encouraging for his ceiling. At his high price tag we’re mostly treating him as a round one finish or bust play, but his grappling ability does create the potential for him to score well beyond that if he can find success getting this fight to the mat. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Vergara has split a pair of decisions so far in the UFC, scoring 83 DraftKings points in his recent win, after notching 48 points in a loss. He didn’t attempt a takedown in either match, and looks reliant on landing knockouts to really score well. Now he’ll face an undefeated opponent who will be looking to grapple, which has the potential to slow the fight down and make it even tougher for Vergara to sneak into winning lineups as a value play without a big score. Working in Vergara’s favor, this is a smaller slate and he’s very affordably priced, so he may not need to put up a huge score to be useful if we only see a few underdogs win. He also has a history of landing late knockouts, so we’re not ruling out the possibility that he finds a finish. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Piera Rodriguez
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Rodriguez is coming off a decision win over Kay Hansen in her UFC debut, after also winning a decision on DWCS just before that. All eight of her pro fights have seen the second round, with her last four making it to round three, and three of those going the distance.
In her last fight, Rodriguez got taken down by Kay Hansen midway through the first round, but was quickly able to return to her feet. While Hansen then returned her to the mat, Rodriguez refused to accept the position and escaped once again as she immediately elevated Hansen off of her. Hansen would land another takedown later in the round and that time was able to control Rodriguez for a period of time as she closed out the round in top position. However, Hansen was unable to land any takedowns in the later rounds, as Rodriguez began to take over and land takedowns of her own in the back half of the fight. The fight ended with Rodriguez ahead 50-31 in significant strikes and 77-54 in total strikes. She landed three of her four takedown attempts and led in control time 5:13-3:14, while Hansen only landed two of her eight attempts. At no point was the fight ever close to ending early.
Still undefeated with an 8-0 pro record, Rodriguez has five wins by knockout and three decisions. Three of her finishes came in round two, one ended in round three, and the other was stopped in round five. However, her last two and three of her last four fights have gone the distance, with the only finish over that stretch coming in the fifth round.
Overall, Rodriguez is a rare power puncher in the women’s Strawweight division, but it will be interesting to see how her finishing ability translates to the UFC level. She’s a patient but powerful striker who frequently looks for takedowns, although she doesn’t always have the best accuracy when it comes to landing them. While she landed three of her four takedown attempts in her recent UFC debut, she only landed 3 of her 13 attempts on DWCS just before that. Rodriguez trains at Black House MMA with Mackenzie Dern, but Rodriguez is only a BJJ blue belt and has yet to show herself to be any sort of submission threat and she’s generally more so looking for ground and pound on the mat.
Sam Hughes
6th UFC Fight (2-3)After starting her UFC career off with three straight losses, Hughes saved her job with a pair of wins in her last two fights as she showed improved wrestling. Just keep in mind, both of those wins came against one-dimensional strikers who are helpless on the mat.
In her last fight, Hughes pressed Elise Reed up against the cage, took her down, and made the fight ugly on the mat. The longer the fight went, the easier the takedowns came, as Hughes only landed one of her four attempts in the first round, but all three of her attempts in the late rounds. Reed was essentially shut out in the later rounds, landing one combined significant strike in those rounds. Hughes was eventually able to force the stoppage late in round three as she battered Reed on the mat. The fight ended with Hughes ahead 43-17 in significant strikes and 130-70 in total strikes, while landing four of her seven takedown attempts with 11:59 in control time.
Now 7-4 as a pro, Hughes has two wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. Her only KO/TKO loss came in her short notice UFC debut/execution against Tecia Torres, where the fight was stopped after round one when Hughes said she couldn’t see. The only other time Hughes has been finished was in a fourth round submission in an LFA title fight against Vanessa Demopoulos, while her other two losses both ended in decisions. Three of her five early wins came against opponents who had never fought professionally before, although she is coming off a late third round ground and pound TKO to notch her first early win in the UFC. Hughes turned pro in February 2019, initially fighting at 130 lb, but worked her way down to 115 lb by July 2020.
Overall, Hughes has looked better every time she steps inside the Octagon and her confidence also appears to be growing with every fight. After failing to land a takedown on just three attempts in her first three UFC matches, she’s landed six on 12 attempts in her last two fights. On the other side of things, Hughes got taken down seven times on 12 attempts in those first three losses, but hasn’t faced a takedown in her last two fights. Overall she has a 40% takedown accuracy and a 41% defense. Working against her, Hughes’ striking hasn’t looked great and she was outlanded by her first four UFC opponents. It will be interesting to see how her wrestling holds up against an opponent who isn’t helpless on the mat in this next matchup.
Fight Prediction:
Hughes will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
While Hughes has looked much better in her last two matchups, those were both dream matchups for her to dominate in the wrestling exchanges. Now she’ll face an opponent who should be able to compete on the mat with her and we expect she’ll have a much tougher time dominating this fight on the ground. She may still find some success landing takedowns, but in the end we like Rodriguez to come out ahead wherever the fight takes place. There’s a chance we could see Rodriguez land a late knockout, but she’s still more likely to win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is Rodriguez’s ML at -160.
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DFS Implications:
Rodriguez looked a little tentative in her UFC debut, especially early on, but was still able to win the fight against a grappler in Kay Hansen and we’re expecting to see a better version of Rodriguez here. Her combination of powerful striking and grappling gives her the potential to score well in a wrestling-heavy decision, although she only scored 80 DraftKings points in her UFC debut and generally lacks the striking volume to put up a big score without a finish or a completely dominant grappling performance. Five of her eight career wins have come early, and Hughes has been finished in two of her four pro losses, so this certainly isn’t a bad spot for Rodriguez to hit a ceiling performance. The odds imply she has a 59% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Hughes is coming off a career performance where she absolutely dominated the fight on the ground as she worked towards a late third round ground and pound finish against a one-dimensional striker in Elise Reed. That was good for 121 DraftKings points after Hughes scored 92 points in a decision win just before that. Prior to the pair of wins, Hughes struggled mightily against her first three UFC opponents and was taken down 7 times on 12 attempts in those matches. While she does appear to be improving, we haven’t seen her defeat any well rounded fighters yet and this will be a tougher test for her. While we don’t have a ton of confidence in Hughes pulling off the upset, she has shown a solid grappling-based floor and ceiling when she does win. At her cheaper price tag that makes it tougher for her to fail with a win here. The odds imply she has a 41% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Joanderson Brito
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC win, Brito impressively knocked out UFC veteran Andre Fili in just 41 seconds, which was the first time Fili has been finished since suffering a 2016 R2 KO defeat against Yair Rodriguez. Prior to that match, Brito had a 10 fight winning streak snapped in a decision loss to Bill Algeo in Brito’s January 2022 UFC debut after winning a technical decision on DWCS in August 2021.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it. Both guys landed some jabs and then Brito dropped Fili with a big overhand right 30 seconds into the first round and the fight was stopped as Brito went to work with ground and pound. The 41 second fight ended with Brito ahead 14-6 in striking with no takedowns attempted.
Now 13-3-1 as a pro, Brito has gone 12-1-1 in his last 14 fights after starting off his career at 1-2 back in 2013. Thirteen of his 17 fights have ended early, with six wins by KO, five by submission, and just two decisions. He was finished twice in the first round in his first three pro fights, once by KO and another by submission, with his only other career loss coming by decision in his UFC debut. Brito has primarily competed at 145 lb and 155 lb in the past, but did fight down at 135 lb early in his career. He’s remained at 145 lb since 2019, which is where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, Brito is a blitzing wild man who throws violent strikes with fight-ending intentions and constantly looks for takedowns. He’ll look for both guillotine submissions and rear-naked chokes in addition to trying to finish opponents with haymakers. He’s dangerous in a variety of ways, but he lacks much finesse and simply tries to bull rush and overpower his opponents. Brito uses so much energy early on in fights that it’s tougher for him to remain competitive later on in matches. Eight of his 11 finishes have occurred in the first round, with another coming 41 seconds into round two, and just one ending in over nine minutes.
Lucas Alexander
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on just six days’ notice, Alexander is coming off a win over former UFC fighter Jacob Kilburn, who has now lost five straight fights, with four of those losses ending early. Meanwhile, Alexander has won five straight, with his last three wins all ending in mid-to-late round TKOs. His last five fights have all seen the second round, after he was submitted in the first round in back-to-back fights in 2017 and 2018.
In his last fight, Alexander methodically dismantled Jacob Kilburn, who was forced to try and clinch Alexander up along the fence to try and change the direction the fight was going. Kilburn wasn’t able to do anything with the position, as Alexander was able to keep it standing and eventually escape and return to space. Alexander seemed in complete control of the striking exchanges as he did a good job of controlling the distance and landing his own strikes while avoiding most of what was coming back at him. Midway through round two Alexander threw a kick to the body of Kilburn that broke Kilburn’s arm as he tried to block it. At that point Kilburn told the ref he couldn’t continue and the fight was immediately stopped.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Alexander has three wins by KO and four by decision. Both of his losses ended in first round submissions, while his three TKO wins came in the later rounds, two in round two and one in round three.
Overall, Alexander is a crisp striker who throws good calf kicks and can mix up his stance to keep opponents guessing. He’s looked for a couple of no hooks rear-naked chokes in recent fights, but he’s overall not much of a grappler. He has somewhat of a bizarre striking style at times, channeling unusual movement to try and throw his opponents off their game.
Fight Prediction:
Alexander will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
While Brito is coming off a quick KO win, he relies heavily on his grappling and now he’ll face a pure striker who’s making his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice. That could make cardio a concern for both guys, and if the fight makes it to the back half we could see them each slow down. With that said, we like Brito’s chances of getting this fight to the mat early and locking up a submission to get his second straight finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Brito Submission” at +250.
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DFS Implications:
Brito is coming off a slate-breaking 131 point DraftKings explosion where he landed a 41 second first round knockout against Andre Fili to secure his first UFC victory. Prior to that, he scored just 36 points in a decision loss to Bill Algeo and mostly relies on early finishes as he tends to slow down later in fights. Brito’s aggressive grappling-heavy fighting style is great for his DFS potential, but his cardio concerns do make it hard to completely trust him. Nevertheless, this is a great spot for him as he takes on a one-dimensional striker in Lucas Alexander, who’s making his UFC debut on just six days’ notice. Alexander has also been submitted in the first round of both of his pro losses, so this looks like a good spot for Brito to find an early finish. And even with his cardio concerns, it’s not impossible for Brito to put on a dominating grappling performance and still score well in a decision. He’s also shown knockout power, so he has multiple ways to score well. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Alexander is in a historically tough spot to succeed as he makes his UFC debut on short notice. This is also a bad stylistic matchup for him as he’s essentially a one-dimensional striker and squaring off against a grappler. While Alexander does look like an interesting prospect with crisp striking and good movement, we’ll be more interested in playing him down the road when he has more time to prepare and is in a more favorable matchup. With that said, if Brito gasses out it’s not impossible that Alexander lands a late TKO finish or sneaks out a decision win, but it is unlikely. The odds imply Alexander has a 24% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Nick Maximov
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Maximov got submitted in just 76 seconds by Andre Petroski. Prior to that, he won a pair of wrestling-heavy decisions in his first two UFC fights against two other fighters with wrestling backgrounds in Cody Brundage and Punahele Soriano. Maximov made his way into the UFC in a bizarre DWCS match where he took on a Heavyweight who weighed 54 lb more than him. Maximov was still able to get the fight to the ground and control his much larger opponent to grind out a decision win.
In his last fight, Maximov shot for a takedown in the opening minute, but after a brief scramble on the mat Andre Petroski wrapped up Maximov’s neck and choked him unconscious. The fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but Maximov finished ahead in striking 4-1.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Maximov has two wins by TKO, three by submission, and three decisions. After his first five pro wins all came in the first two rounds, including three in round one, Maximov fought to three straight decisions leading up to his only career loss in the recent R1 submission defeat.
Overall, Maximov is a relentless wrestler, but doesn’t offer much in terms of striking. A former college wrestler, he trains out of the Nick Diaz Academy and has shown the ability to go 15 grueling minutes on the mat. He’s landed 15 takedowns on 32 attempts in his three UFC fights, while also landing two of his five attempts on DWCS, which factors into his 45.9% takedown accuracy. He’s only had to defend one takedown attempt from his opponents in the UFC, which he did so successfully. All three of his UFC opponents so far have had wrestling backgrounds and now he’ll face another wrestler in his fourth UFC fight.
Jacob Malkoun
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Fresh off a close/questionable decision loss, Malkoun lost a grappling-heavy decision to Brendan Allen. That snapped a two fight winning streak, after Malkoun won a pair of decisions over A.J. Dobson and Abdul Razak Alhassan just before that. Malkoun made his UFC debut in October 2020 and got knocked out in just 18 seconds by Phil Hawes leading up to the pair of wins.
In his last fight, Malkoun took Brendan Allen down 7 times on 14 attempts and controlled him for over seven minutes. Allen landed two takedowns of his own with three and a half minutes of control time, but Malkoun was dictating the wrestling exchanges. Allen was the slightly busier striker as he finished ahead 45-33 in significant strikes and 89-66 in total strikes. Neither guy inflicted much damage in the fight for what it’s worth, but in the end the judges awarded it to Allen as he was the one landing more strikes.
Still just 6-2 as a pro, Malkoun has two wins by TKO and four by decision. Both of his TKO wins occurred in his first three pro fights and his last three wins have all gone the distance. He has one KO loss and one decision defeat.
Overall, Malkoun hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level and he’s content with grinding out decisions on the mat, which appears to be his only path to victory. He’s a one dimensional wrestler, with no striking and a suspect chin. He’s also never landed a submission in his career. Despite his wrestling heavy approach, Malkoun had a short stint in pro boxing, winning all three of his matches, but you wouldn’t guess it by watching him fight. Both of his UFC wins came against one-dimensional strikers, although he arguably beat a grappler in Allen in his last match.
Fight Prediction:
Maximov will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
This doppelganger matchup sets up as a pure wrestling match, but Malkoun’s suspect chin does create a slight chance for Maximov to land a knockout. Maximov also has a few submission wins on his record, although Malkoun has never been submitted. It’s hard to know exactly how the wrestling exchanges will go, which makes it trickier to predict a winner, but we’d be surprised to see this fight end early. While the line has moved in Malkoun’s favor, we still like Maximov to win.
Our favorite bet here is Maximov’s ML at -125.
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DFS Implications:
Maximov has shown both a solid floor and ceiling in his two decision wins, which returned DraftKing scores of 124 and 96. Both of those wins came against opponents with wrestling backgrounds, which is encouraging for Maximov’s chances as he squares off against another wrestler here. Malkoun couldn’t finish a hot meal let alone an opponent at the UFC level, which provides Maximov with a decent floor even if he loses a decision here. Also working in Maximov’s favor, Malkoun showed a suspect chin in his UFC debut, so if anyone gets a finish in this fight, it should be Maximov. With that said, while Maximov has five finishes on his record, he also hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level to this point. His wrestling-heavy approach makes him a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel, but he was still able to score 108 FanDuel points through sheer takedown numbers in his last win, after scoring just 52 points before that. The odds imply he has a 54% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Malkoun is very similar to Maximov and also has a solid floor and ceiling based on his wrestling, as he put up DraftKings scores of 129 and 115 points in his two UFC decision wins. He also scored 68 points in his recent loss that would have been good for 98 points on DraftKings and 82 points on FanDuel if the judges rewarded grappling dominance. His two decision wins were good for 104 and 94 FanDuel points and he’s been able to score decently even there through sheer takedown numbers. With that said, his wrestling-heavy style still makes him a much better DraftKings play. Both of his wins came against one-dimensional strikers, and while you can definitely argue he beat a grappler in Allen, we’ve yet to see him notch an official UFC win against a fellow wrestler. The odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Mana Martinez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Ronnie Lawrence, Martinez has gone the distance in both of his UFC fights after 9 of his first 10 pro bouts ended early, including eight KO wins in the first two rounds of fights. Seemingly everything that could go wrong did go wrong for Martinez leading up to his recent UFC debut. He had not one, but two late opponent changes, his fight then got pushed back a week, he missed weight by 4 lb, and worst of all, his coach tragically passed away less than two weeks before his match. He ended up having 28-year-old Adrian Yanez cornering him. Known for his early knockouts, Martinez uncharacteristically started slow in the fight, losing the first round on all three judges’ score cards as Guido Cannetti outlanded him 27-19 in the opening five minutes. With nothing going his way, Martinez dug deep and turned the tides in round two and then pulled away in round three to notch his first career decision win in a split-decision. He then got a terrible matchup in his last fight as he squared off against a chain wrestling Ronnie Lawrence.
In Martinez’s last fight, Lawrence took him down 80 seconds into the first round. While Martinez was able to return to his feet midway through the round, Lawrence then dropped him with a right hand to return him to the mat, where Lawrence ended the round in top position. Lawrence dropped Martinez again early in round two, and while Martinez was able to return to his feet once again, Lawrence ridiculously landed a third knockdown just moments later. While Martinez showed his toughness to survive the assault, as soon as he returned to his feet Lawrence landed a takedown and again finished the round in top position. Martinez finally got something going late in round three as he dropped Lawrence with a spinning backfist and then immediately knocked him down a second time. However, despite clearing being hurt, Lawrence was able to land a takedown to buy time to recover. Martinez briefly returned to his feet only to get taken down one final time to close out the fight. Lawrence finished the fight with six takedowns on seven attempts with over eight minutes of control time. He also led in significant strikes 46-39 with three knockdowns, but Martinez led in total strikes 105-63.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Martinez has eight wins by KO and one decision victory, which was split. Five of those knockouts occurred in round one, with the other three ending in round two. His last six KO wins all came in under six minutes, with five ending in round one, and three coming in 60 seconds or less. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a R1 submission on DWCS against Drako Rodriguez. His other two losses both went the distance. Only one of his first 10 pro fights made it past the seven minute mark, which ended in a split decision in his second pro match. Martinez is the only fighter to ever finish TUF winner Ricky Turcios.
Overall, Martinez is a karate black belt and a BJJ purple belt. He’s an Orthadox fighter but will sometimes switch stances and has an incredibly dangerous left hand. He doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling and is essentially a one-dimensional power puncher who’s never landed a knockout beyond the seven minute mark. He got taken down six times on seven attempts by Ronnie Lawrence and was also taken down on DWCS on Rodriguez’s only attempt, leaving Martinez with just a 12% takedown defense.
Brandon Davis
9th UFC Fight (2-6)Looking to bounce back from the first KO loss of his career, Davis has lost his last three UFC fights, but did notch four straight wins outside of the UFC leading up to his return to the organization in his most recent defeat. Davis originally joined the UFC in 2018 following a decision win on DWCS, but went 2-5 from 2018 to 2019 before being released. Five of those fights ended in decisions (1-4), with the other two ending in second round submissions (1-1). While his last two fights both ended in first round TKOs, he had seen the second round in 11 straight matches prior to that. It’s been almost a year to the day since Davis last fought after he underwent two ACL surgeries in January and March after developing an infection following the first surgery. He recently discussed how he had been fighting with a torn ACL for multiple fights, which explains why he was wearing a knee sleeve for his last matchup.
In his last fight, Davis took on a powerful striker in Batgerel Danaa and essentially served as a punching bag for as long as the fight lasted. He stumbled Davis at multiple points, but only finished with one official knockdown as the fight was stopped two minutes in as Davis absorbed one big shot after the next. Davis was arguably trying to return to his feet as the fight was stopped but he was in rough shape. In the end, Davis had no answer for the striking of Danaa, and the fight ended with Danaa ahead in striking 22-7 in the one-sided affair.
Now 14-9 as a pro, Davis has four wins by KO, four by submission, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has six decision losses. The only fighter Davis has finished in the UFC is Randy Costa, who turns into a pumpkin after the first round and has never seen a third round. Davis is large for the 135 lb division and has fought as high as 155 lb in the past. He’s been alternating between 135 lb and 145 lb for a while, but his last two fights have both been at 135 lb.
Overall, Davis is decently well-rounded and prior to his recent KO loss had been very durable. He’ll sporadically mix in wrestling, but has only landed five takedowns on 11 attempts (45.5% accuracy) in his eight UFC fights, and failed to attempt a takedown against a one-dimensional striker in his last fight. He’s a BJJ purple belt and a Muay Thai brown belt. He averages 4.63 SSL/min and 4.46 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Davis will have a 2” reach advantage. Martinez is six years younger than the 32-year-old Davis.
We expect Davis to come in looking to wrestle more in this matchup, as that looks like his best path to victory. However, we said the same thing going into his last matchup and Davis never even attempted a takedown in that fight, so it’s hard to trust his decision making. In fairness, his knee injury likely limited his ability to wrestle and the fight only lasted two minutes. If he can get this fight to the ground, he has the potential to lock up a submission or win rounds on the mat. Just keep in mind he’s never been a big control time guy and even in his career best three takedowns landed against Giga Chikadze, he still finished with just three minutes of control time in a decision loss. That makes it tougher for him to simply grind out decisions on the mat and he’s just 6-6 in his 12 career decisions. If this fight remains standing, Martinez has been the more dangerous striker with a history of landing early knockouts, and we just saw Davis get knocked out in the first round of his last fight. However, considering Davis now has his knee repaired, has the grappling advantage, and Martinez has yet to show the ability to stop a takedown with just a 12% defense, we’re taking Davis to win by either submission or decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Davis Submission” at +850.
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DFS Implications:
Martinez has split a pair of decisions in his two UFC fights, but had previously only required the judges once in his 10 pro fights prior to joining the organization. Eight of his nine career wins have come by knockout in seven minutes or less, so he has theoretical scoring upside even if he hasn’t shown it yet at the UFC level. While Brandon Davis has been durable for most of his career, he is coming off the first knockout loss of his career, which occurred just two minutes into the first round. However, Davis will likely be looking to wrestle more here, which could limit Martinez’s ability to return value if this fight makes it past the first round. That likely leaves him as a R1 KO or bust option barring a multi-knockdown performance in a later round finish. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Davis has yet to really score well in DFS, with DraftKings totals of just 87 and 78 in his two UFC victories, despite the fact that the first of those scores came in a second round submission win. While he has the wrestling advantage in this matchup, he’s only landed five takedowns on 11 attempts in his eight UFC fights, and only once landed more than a single takedown in a fight. Working in his favor, Martinez has just a 12% takedown defense, but that number is almost entirely based on his fight against chain wrestler Ronnie Lawrence, who took Martinez down six times on seven attempts. While Davis has a good shot at winning this fight, he may still need most of the other dogs to fail to crack tournament winning lineups as he has historically lacked the output to put up big scores in fights that make it past the first round. With that said, it’s very possible we do get a slate with only a handful of dogs winning, which should keep Davis in play even if he fails to really score well. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Alonzo Menifield
9th UFC Fight (5-3)After losing a close/questionable decision to William Knight in December 2021, Menifield bounced back with a R1 TKO win over a fraudulent Askar Mozharov in his last fight. Prior to the loss to Knight, Menifield had won a decision over Ed Herman after submitting Fabio Cherant, and has now won three of his last four. He started his UFC career off with a pair of first round knockouts, but then lost a decision to Devin Clark and got knocked out by OSP leading up to his recent four fights.
In his last fight, Menifield took on an opponent in Askar Mozharov who is completely helpless on the mat and Menifield clearly came in looking to capitalize on that as he shot for his first takedown in the opening seconds of the fight. After controlling Mozharov for several minutes on the ground but failing to do much with the position, Mozharov was briefly able to return to his feet. However, Menifield soon landed another takedown and quickly worked to a crucifix position. He began teeing off with elbows shortly after and the fight was stopped with 20 seconds remaining in the round. The fight ended with Menifield ahead 19-2 in significant strikes and 55-11 in total strikes, while landing two of his three takedown attempts with 4:19 in control time.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Menifield has nine KOs, two submissions, and one decision win. He’s been knocked out once, with his other two losses both going the distance. Nine of his 11 early wins occurred in round one, with the other two ending in the opening minute of round two. His one early loss also ended in round two. All three of the decisions he’s been to in his career have come in his last six fights, after his first nine pro matches all ended early.
Overall, Menifield came into the UFC as a one-dimensional power puncher with cardio concerns, but has been trying to mix in a little more wrestling lately and fighting more methodically. He failed to land a takedown on four attempts in his first four UFC fights, but has landed four on seven attempts in his last four matches. He has a solid takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 19 opponent attempts in his eight UFC fights, but was taken down twice more on four attempts in his two DWCS appearances, which factors into his 82.6% takedown defense. Menifield is a former college, CFL and Arena League football player, and while he has solid power, his cardio fades later in fights. He only averages 3.88 SSL/min and has only landed more than 44 significant strikes once in his career, which is when he landed 93 in a decision win over Ed Herman.
Misha Cirkunov
13th UFC Fight (6-6)After fighting his entire career at 205 lb, Cirkunov dropped down to 185 lb for his last two fights. However, after losing both of those matches and not looking good at the lighter weight, he’ll now be moving back up to 205 lb. He’s lost three straight fights and is just 2-6 in his last eight matches. Now 35 years old, he hasn’t won a fight since 2019 and has just two victories dating back to 2016. Sixteen of his last 17 fights have ended early, with 13 of those ending in round one.
In his last fight, Cirkunov ended up with Wellington Turman on his back early on after Cirkunov returned to his feet following a brief grappling exchange. Turman looked to lock up a rear-naked choke, but Cirkunov patiently tried to fight it off until Turman nearly locked up the choke. However, Cirkunov was able to shuck him off to the side and then began landing ground and pound and finished the round on top. Both guys looped to be slowing to start the second round, but Cirkunov got the fight back to the mat with a trip a minute in to regain top position. However, in the blink of an eye, Turman threw up an armbar and Cirkunov immediately tapped. The fight ended with Cirkunov ahead 30-15 in significant strikes and 50-24 in total strikes. He landed the only official takedown in the fight, with both guys attempting three.
Now 15-8 as a pro, Cirkunov has five wins by KO, eight by submission, and two decisions. Eleven of those 13 finishes occurred in round one, another ended in round two, and the final one came in round three. He’s been finished in seven of his eight pro losses, with four KOs and two submissions. Two of those submission losses occurred early in his career and he’s been more prone to getting knocked out over the last decade. All four of his knockout losses occurred in his last eight fights, all in the first three minutes of round one, with three in 71 seconds or less.
Overall, Cirkunov is a BJJ black belt with a background in Judo, Greco-Roman wrestling, and freestyle wrestling, He’s basically a one-dimensional grappler who has a suspect chin that makes trading on the feet a risky endeavor for him. You also have to question his toughness and heart as he tends to quit at the first sign of adversity. He doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank, and any fight could be his last. He’s 0-4 in UFC fights where he’s failed to land a takedown and has lost his last two fights even when he was able to get the fight to the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Cirkunov will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Cirkunov will be looking to get this fight to the ground to hunt for a submission, but Menifield has a really solid 83% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice in his eight UFC fights, both fights he lost however. While Menifield has never won a UFC fight after getting taken down, Cirkunov has never won a fight where he didn’t land a takedown. This matchup simply comes down to whether or not Menifield can keep it standing as Cirkunov has shown a very dubious chin at 205 lb. If Menifield can connect with anything clean, he should be able to find a quick finish and we’re expecting a first round knockout win for him.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Menifield has been a R1 or bust DFS fighter who has never landed a finish beyond the six minute mark in a fight. He scored just 74 DraftKings points in his lone decision win, but four of his five UFC wins have ended in round one. He’s coming off a career DFS performance where he put up 123 DraftKings points after notching totals of 98, 96, and 114 in his first three UFC finishes. Now he faces a fragile Misha Cirkunov, who’s gone just 2-6 in his last eight fights, with five or those losses coming early, including four first round KOs and two in the opening minute of fights. That puts the Quick Win Bonus squarely in play for Menifield. Cirkunov is a dangerous grappler, but Menifield has a solid 83% takedown defense that gives him a good chance of keeping this fight standing. However, Menifield has never won a fight where he’s been taken down and he’ll be at risk of getting submitted if this fight does hit the mat. That makes his floor somewhat shaky, but he has a massive ceiling. The odds imply Menifield has a 66% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Cirkunov’s history of first round finishes consistently results in him being a popular DFS play amongst the field, despite the fact that he’s just 2-6 in his last eight fights. In his last three matches, his DraftKings ownership has checked in at 32%, 42%, and 33%. To his credit, he’s a dangerous grappler and all six of his UFC wins have come early, where he’s averaged 107 DraftKings points with five scores of 108 or more. However, he’s now 35 years old and tried moving down to 185 lb for his last two fights with no success as he lost both of his matches at the lighter weight class. In a late career desperation move, he’ll now be moving back up to 205 lb, where he got knocked out in 71 seconds by Ryan Spann the last time he competed at the weight class. While some may perceive this as a favorable matchup for Cirkunov due to his clear grappling advantage, Menifield has a really solid 83% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice since joining the UFC. Cirkunov will need to overcome that to have a chance in this matchup and Menifield has also never been submitted in his career and already has a win over another dangerous grappler in Paul Craig. Cirkunov is certainly still live in this spot based on his history of landing submissions, but it’s far from an easy matchup and there’s a really good chance he gets knocked out early in the first round. He’s a perennially popular boom or bust play, but this is a fight where we expect the winner to put up a big score and we’re not completely ruling out his chances of landing a submission. If he does pull off the upset, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning tournament lineups. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Victor Henry
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Henry will be looking to keep his momentum going following an incredibly impressive decision win in his UFC debut where he defeated a really tough Raoni Barcelos. Henry has won 10 of his last 11 fights, with his last four wins prior to joining the UFC all coming early. However, only one of his last 15 fights ended in the first round, and nine of those 15 matches went the distance. He notably has wins over UFC fighters Kyler Phillips and Anderson dos Santos prior to joining the UFC, and with 27 pro fights to his name, the 35-year-old is far more experienced than your typical fighter entering their second UFC bout.
In his last fight, Henry and Barcelos threw down in a high-volume brawl for three straight rounds. While Barcelos landed 134 significant strikes in the fight, he was still outlanded in every round, as Henry landed 181. Henry also finished ahead in significant strikes 222-134. Barcelos was only able to land one of his seven takedown attempts and finished with just 15 seconds of control time. Henry impressively won a unanimous 30-27 decision in a fight the oddsmakers had given him just an 18% chance of winning.
Now 22-5 as a pro, Henry has six wins by KO, eight submissions, and eight decision victories. He’s never been finished in his 12 year career, with all five of his losses going the distance.
Overall, Henry has fought all over the world since turning pro in 2010. While the majority of his time has been spent in California and Japan, he also has fights in Russia and Dubai. He’s decently well rounded with his grappling and striking and tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on opposed to landing huge finishing shots early on. His last three finishes have come in the later rounds and 7 of his last 10 fights have seen a third round. He landed insane volume in his recent UFC debut, something we hadn’t really seen from him in most of his pre-UFC tape. It will be interesting to see if that was somewhat flukey or if that’s just who he is moving forward.
Raphael Assuncao
18th UFC Fight (11-6)Winding down a lengthy pro career that started all the way back in 2004, the 40-year-old Assuncao has lost four straight fights, getting finished in the first two rounds in three of those. His last two matches both ended in second round KO defeats and he recently became the only fighter to ever get knocked out by wrestler Ricky Simon in the UFC.
In Assuncao’s last fight, Simon landed two takedowns in the first round and controlled Assuncao for nearly four minutes in the opening period. Round two stayed entirely on the feet and midway through Simon knocked Assuncao out with a big right hand. The fight ended with Simon ahead 18-7 in significant strikes and 27-10 in total strikes, while landing two of his four takedown attempts with four minutes of control time.
Now 27-9 as a pro, Assuncao has four wins by KO, 10 by submission, and 13 decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice and has four decision defeats. Ten of his 17 UFC fights have gone the distance, while he’s been finished four times with the organization and landed finishes of his own in the other three. However, he only has one early win since 2013 and it was a R3 KO against an opponent in Matthew Lopez who went 2-4 in the UFC with three early losses. He got knocked out in the first round of his 2011 UFC debut up at 145 lb, but then dropped down to 135 lb after that fight and has since gone 11-5 at the lighter weight class.
Overall, Assuncao is a BJJ black belt and a slow paced counter puncher. It’s rare to see much action in his fights as he averages just 3.20 SSL/min and 2.34 SSA/min. In his last nine UFC bouts, five of which went the distance, Assuncao failed to land more than 54 significant strikes in a fight and hasn’t absorbed more than 64. He has a solid 77% takedown defense, although he did get taken down twice on four Simon attempts in his last match. It looks like his chin is failing him at this stage in his career and any fight could be Assuncao’s last.
Fight Prediction:
Henry will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is five years younger than the 40-year-old Assuncao.
While Henry’s last fight set up as a high volume brawl as he faced off against Raoni Barcelos, who averages 4.94 SSA/min in his career, this matchup is just the opposite as he goes against Raphael Assuncao, who averages just 2.34 SSA/min. While Henry doesn’t have huge power and really tends to wear on his opponents through an accumulation of strikes, Assuncao’s chin looks about gone and there’s still a really good chance Henry finds a finish here even if he doesn't put up another big striking total. A finish is still more likely to come in the later rounds and we’ll say Henry wins this one by second round knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Henry R2 or R3 KO” at +460.
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DFS Implications:
Henry was able to score well in a decision win over a really tough Raoni Barcelos in his recent UFC debut, as he notched 114 DraftKings points despite landing no knockdowns or takedowns. However, this sets up as a tougher spot for Henry to land a ton of volume as Assuncao only averages 2.34 SSA/min, compared to Barcelos at 4.94 SSA/min. That should leave Henry reliant on finding a finish to return value at his high price tag, and even if that does happen we could still see him get priced out of winning tournament lineups. Working in his favor, Assuncao is now 40 years old and has lost four straight, with three of those defeats ending in the first two rounds, which is encouraging for Henry’s chances of getting this done early. The odds imply he has a 75% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Assuncao has never been one to score well in DFS, as he offers anemic striking numbers and has just one early win in the last eight years, and even that came in the third round and scored just 74 DraftKings points. Even at his cheap price tag, we don’t see him returning value here without a finish in the first two rounds, which appears highly unlikely as he faces an opponent who’s never been finished in 27 pro fights. We don’t have any interest in playing Assuncao, regardless of his low price and ownership, but if he does somehow pull off the upset AND score well, he would serve as a massive leverage play. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Dusko Todorovic
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Todorovic came into the UFC in 2020 with an undefeated 9-0 record following a 2019 decision win on DWCS. He extended that perfect record with a second round ground and pound TKO win in his debut, but then suffered his first career loss in a R1 TKO against Punahele Soriano. He followed that up with a decision loss to Gregory Rodrigues, before salvaging his UFC career with a R1 ground and pound TKO win over Maki Pitolo in a must win spot. However, he then got knocked out in the first round of his last fight by Chidi Njokuani and has now lost three of his last four matches, with three of those fights ending in the first round.
In his last fight, Todorovic smartly tried to take Njokuani down in the opening 30 seconds, but Njokuani was able to sprawl and stuff the attempt. Njokuani actually looked for a choke at that point, but Todorovic fought through it and ended up in top position. However, Njokuani was able to work to the cage and eventually return to his feet. Todorovic hung onto his back and tried to get him back down, but Njokuani did a good job of defending the takedown attempts. The fighters finally returned to space in the final minute of the round, before Njokuani actually took Todorovic’s back for a moment. Todorovic then spun into him and Njokuani landed an elbow for a walk off knockout out of the clinch. The fight ended with Njokuani ahead in significant strikes 14-5 and in total strikes 19-9, while Todorovic landed two of his seven takedown attempts and led in control time 3:13-0:50.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Todorovic has seven wins by KO, three by submission, and one decision. He has two KO losses and one decision defeat. All 12 of his fights to end early have been stopped in the first two rounds, with nine ending in round one (7-2) and three in round two (3-0). Todorovic is notably the only person to ever knock out Michel Pereira, which occurred in the first round of a 2018 fight just before Todorovic went on DWCS in 2019. Four of Todorovic’s five UFC fights have ended in knockouts, with three ending in round one and the other in round two.
Overall, Todorovic has looked like a shell of his past self since getting knocked out by Soriano. He’s been unable to regain the confidence that got him to the UFC and his chin appears compromised. He’s looked uncomfortable on the feet, and has consistently been looking to get fights to the ground lately. The only problem with that is he has just a 14.3% takedown accuracy after landing just 4 of his 28 takedown attempts between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance. In fairness, he went 0 for 14 on his attempts on DWCS and has since gone 4 for 14 on his attempts in his five UFC fights, raising his accuracy to 28.6% in those matches and landing at least one takedown in three of those five fights. He does a good job of unloading ground and pound on the mat, which is how he finished both of his UFC wins. He holds black belts in both BJJ and Taekwondo.
Jordan Wright
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Also coming off a first round loss, Wright suffered the first submission loss of his career, which was also the first submission win for Marc-Andre Barriault. Barriault notably took that fight on just 10 days’ notice. Wright has now lost three of his last four fights and has been finished in the first round in two straight matches, getting knocked out by Bruno Silva in his second most recent match. Wright made his UFC debut up at 205 lb in August 2020 against a terrible Ike Villanueva, and it ended in a doctor's stoppage just 91 seconds resulting in R1 TKO win for Wright. He then got knocked out 18 seconds into the second round by Joaquin Buckley, before finishing Jamie Pickett in just 64 seconds as he hurt him badly with elbows along the fence as Pickett looked for a takedown.
In his last fight, Wright landed the first two takedowns of his UFC career but Barriault locked up a guillotine choke as Wright took him to the ground for the second time and quickly forced a tap. Prior to the finish, Barriault pushed forward before getting turned around and taken down along the cage. He did a decent job of fighting off Wright’s initial takedown attempt, but Wright persisted and eventually got it to the mat. However, Barriault did a good job of returning to his feet and not accepting the position. The fight ended with Barriault ahead in significant strikes 13-12 and in total strikes 17-16, while Wright landed two of his four takedown attempts.
Now 12-3 plus a No Contest as a pro, Wright has seven wins by KO and five by submission. He’s been knocked out twice and submitted once and has never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes. In reality, he’s been knocked out three times, but one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Anthony Hernandez tested positive for THC following the 2018 DWCS match. Wright’s last three fights have all ended in under three minutes. All five of Wright’s submission wins have come in the first round, as have six of his seven KO victories. He’s 1-1 in his only two fights that made it past the first round, with both of those matches ending in the opening minute of round two. Ten of his 16 pro fights (including the No Contest) have ended in 92 seconds or less and four have ended in under a minute.
Wright started his pro career off with nine straight first round wins. However, on closer investigation that impressive winning streak is padded by a sea of inexperienced (or experienced at losing) fighters. Here are the records of those nine opponents starting at the beginning of Wright's career: 0-0, 0-0, 0-5, 0-0, 0-21, 0-10, 0-0, 1-2, 7-3. With an unbelievably bad 1-38 combined record from his first eight opponents it's hard to take much from those early wins.
Overall, Wright is the epitome of a kill or be killed fighter. He has a highly questionable chin, no striking defense and poor hands. He’s a karate brown belt and relies mostly on kicking and throwing knees out of the clinch to cause damage and can easily be overwhelmed if forced to stand and trade in a phone booth. After failing to land a takedown in his first four UFC fights on just one attempt, Wright landed two of his four attempts in his last match. We haven’t seen him get taken down yet in the UFC, although he’s only had to defend two official attempts. We would argue that number should really be three, as Jamie Pickett clearly tried to take him down but no official attempt was recorded on the stat sheet. Regardless, it’s hard to fully gauge Wright’s takedown defense, but he will look to make his opponents pay with elbows when they try to get him down.
Fight Prediction:
Wright will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This sets up for a short fight as Wright’s last three matches have all ended in round one, as have three of Todorovic’s last four. While Wright has been prone to getting knocked out on the feet, there’s still a good chance Todorovic will be looking to take him down and finish him with ground and pound on the mat. Prior to getting submitted in his last fight, no takedowns were landed in Wright’s first four UFC matches, and his ground game remains somewhat of a mystery at this level. If Todorovic can find himself in full mount or on Wright’s back on the mat, he should be able to find a finish. However, Todorovic has also looked prone to getting knocked out on the feet, so Wright is also live to find a finish of his own. With each of these two losing three of their last four fights, it’s hard to have much confidence in either one of them, but we’ll say Todorovic wins by knockout in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Todorovic KO” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Todorovic has been a feast or famine DFS play with DraftKings scores of 119 and 120 points in his two UFC wins, but just 19, 19, and 9 points in his three losses. Four of his five UFC fights have ended in the first two rounds and he has only been to two decisions in 14 pro fights, although both of those occurred in his last six matches. Ten of his 11 pro wins have come in under 10 minutes, including seven in round one, and Wright has never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes. Todorovic averages a respectable 5.36/SSL min, while Wright averages 7.61 SSA/min, which is all encouraging for Todorovic’s chances of scoring well. He’s also attempted 14 takedowns in his five UFC fights, although he’s only landed four of those. He loves to get fights to the mat and unload with ground and pound, which is a great way to put up a huge DFS score. If Todorovic can avoid getting finished himself, he has a huge scoring ceiling. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 54% chance to land a finish, and a 35% chance it comes in round one.
Wright has been a DFS gold mine when it comes to looking for fights to target. He put up DraftKings scores of 112 and 108 in his two wins, while his opponents returned totals of 101, 109, and 114 in his three losses. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes and has a glass chin. He looked to wrestle for basically the first time since joining the UFC in his last match, but that just led to him getting choked out and he has been vulnerable to getting finished wherever fights go. Working in his favor, Todorovic has been finished in the first round twice in his last four fights and looks to have a somewhat compromised chin at this point. So if Wright can catch him with one of his spinning kicks or with knees out of the Thai clinch, it’s certainly possible we see Wright find a finish. Both guys in this fight have huge ceilings and non-existent floors. The odds imply Wright has a 34% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Jonathan Martinez
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Entering this matchup on a three fight winning streak, with all of those fights going the distance, Martinez has won five of his last six matches. All 10 of Martinez’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with nine making it to round three, and seven ending in decisions. All three of his UFC fights to end early have come in late round KOs (2-1), with both of those wins ending in third round knockouts, and his one early loss ending in a round two KO against Davey Grant in 2021.
In his last fight, Martinez patiently outstruck Vince Morales, while landing 29 leg strikes in the match and causing serious swelling to Morales’ leg early on. Morales curiously didn’t attempt a takedown in the match, while Martinez landed both of his attempts late in the fight. Martinez never pushed for a finish in the match, which has become the norm for him, but he finished ahead in significant strikes 88-51 and in total strikes 88-62 as he easily won a decision.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Martinez has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out once, has two decision losses, and one DQ loss. Martinez has recently bounced between 135 lb and 145 lb some, after fighting all the way down at 125 lb early in his career. He’s struggled hitting 135 lb at times, notably missing weight by 4.5 lb against Frankie Saenz in 2020, which was the last time Martinez finished anybody.
Overall, Martinez is a patient striker who loves to throw knees and kicks, but doesn’t really add a lot in terms of grappling. He notably trains at altitude out of Factory X in Colorado, which is encouraging for his cardio. Martinez struggled with getting taken down earlier in his career, as he was grounded three times in each of his first two UFC fights, but has since only been taken down once in his last eight matches on 17 attempts.
Cub Swanson
22nd UFC Fight (13-8)Dropping down to 135 lb for the first time since 2005, Swanson is just a couple weeks shy of his 39th birthday. It’s interesting to see him make a switch in weight classes at this point in his career, especially considering he’s coming off a R1 KO win over Darren Elkins and won three of his last four fights at 145 lb. Just prior to the win over Elkins, Swanson suffered just the second KO/TKO loss of his 40 fight career, and first since a 2009 8 second R1 TKO loss to Jose Aldo. In that recent loss, Swanson got finished in just 63 seconds by Giga Chikadze with a violent liver kick. Looking back further, Swanson tore his ACL and meniscus in a 2019 grappling match, which kept him out of action for 14 months, before stepping back inside the Octagon against Daniel Pineda in 2020 and landing a second round KO win leading up to his loss to Giga.
In his last fight, Swanson did a great job of controlling the distance and sniping Elkins from the outside. He was also able to stuff both of Elkin’s takedown attempts. Swanson dropped Elkins two minutes into the first round and then let Elkins return to his feet before landing a spinning wheel kick that left Elkins stumbling and the fight was immediately stopped. It ended in 132 seconds with Swanson ahead 18-2 in significant strikes in what was essentially a shutout.
Now 28-12 as a pro, Swanson has 13 wins by KO, four by submission, and 11 decisions. While he’s only been knocked out twice, he has seven submission losses, and three decision defeats. His last three fights have all ended in knockouts in under seven minutes (2-1), however those are his only two finishes since 2013. Despite being a BJJ black belt, Swanson hasn’t submitted anybody since 2009 and struggles with getting submitted himself.
Overall, Swanson is an aging high-volume striker who is 3-5 in his last eight fights, but has found more success recently. He’s only landed one takedown on three attempts in his last eight fights and is generally looking to keep fights standing. While he’s looked decent recently, we have serious concerns with him dropping a weight class so late in his career.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” with a 70” reach, but Martinez is 10 years younger than the 38-year-old Swanson.
It seems like we see the same thing in every Martinez fight, as he patiently picks apart his opponents and occasionally mixes in a flying knee or two. He hasn’t finished anybody in his last five matches and doesn’t fight with much urgency, as he appears focussed on remaining defensively sound. The big wildcard in this matchup is how Swanson will look following the weight cut and that’s really the only reason to think Martinez may be able to find a finish here. Swanson has been far more prone to getting submitted than knocked out in his career, but there’s a chance we could see him leave his chin on the scale, increasing the odds of a knockout here. While Martinez does have a pair of first round submission wins on his record back in 2016 and 2017, he hasn’t looked like much of a submission threat and we’d be surprised if he submitted Swanson. While you generally want to bet on Martinez by decision when he fights, we’ll say he finds a knockout here.
Our favorite bet here is “Martinez ITD” at +215.
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DFS Implications:
Martinez has only topped 76 DraftKings points once in 10 UFC fights, which was when he landed a R3 KO against Frankie Saenz and tacked on a ridiculous three knockdowns. His other R3 win scored just 68 DraftKings points and with average striking volume and just three takedowns landed in his last eight fights, he’s generally not a guy that helps you very often in DFS. To return value at his expensive price tag, he’ll either need to land a knockout in the first two rounds or the third round with multiple knockdowns behind it. While Swanson has only been knocked out once since 2009, the fact that he’s dropping down a weight class at 38 years old does increase the chances that we see a finish from Martinez. That’s really the only reason to like Martinez here. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Swanson’s last two wins both ended in the first two rounds and returned DraftKings scores of 107 and 117, so we expect him to be a fairly popular underdog play at his cheap price tag. He also scored 87 points in his last decision win, showing a decent floor even when he doesn’t find a finish. While Martinez did get knocked out in his last loss, that’s the only time he’s been finished in his career and he only averages 3.77 SSA/min as he’s generally looking to slow fights down. That makes this a less than ideal spot for Swanson even without the drop in weight, which further adds to his uncertainty. While Swanson has shown a solid ceiling and has been a tough guy to knock out for most of his career, don’t be surprised if he looks terrible at the lighter weight class and gets finished early. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Alexa Grasso
10th UFC Fight (6-3)This matchup had been booked back in August but Grasso withdrew and it was pushed back two months to this upcoming card. After originally being scheduled for three rounds, it was elevated to a five-round main event after the previous headliner, Cannonier/Strickland, fell through in early September. They had also been scheduled to face each other back in January 2022, but Araujo withdrew due to injury, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for one another.
Grasso enters this matchup on a three fight winning streak and is coming off the first submission victory of her career, which wasn’t entirely shocking as it came against the highly submittable Joanne Wood, who’s now been submitted in five of her eight pro losses. That’s Grasso’s only early win in her last 11 matches dating back to a 2014 R1 TKO win in Invicta. Her only other fight to end early since then was a 2018 R1 submission loss to Tatiana Suarez, and 9 of Grasso’s last 11 fights have gone the distance (7-2). Prior to her recent early win, Grasso won a pair of decisions over Maycee Barber and Ji Yeon Kim, after losing a 2019 decision to Carla Esparza. Grasso started her career at 115 lb and alternated wins and losses over her first six UFC fights before moving up to 125 lb for her last three matches following the loss to Esparza.
In her last fight, Grasso landed a takedown in the opening 30 seconds of the fight, but didn’t do anything with it and returned to her feet after a couple minutes of holding top position. However, after a minute of trading on the feet Grasso returned the fight to the mat and this time was immediately able to take Wood’s back. She quickly locked up a rear-naked choke and Wood didn’t take long to tap. The fight ended with Wood ahead 34-16 in significant strikes and 61-50 in total strikes, but Grasso landed both of her takedown attempts with over two minutes of control time before locking up her first career submission win.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Grasso has four wins by KO, one by submission, and nine decisions. Three of her four KO wins came in her first three pro fights against opponents who entered with no experience and the other was in her 6th pro fight, back in 2014. She’s never been knocked out and the only time she’s been finished was in a 2018 R1 submission loss to Tatiana Suarez. Her other two losses both went the distance. Grasso is notably 3-0 since moving up to 125 lb.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Grasso’s career so it’s hard to know how her cardio will look in the championship rounds if it gets there.
Overall, Grasso is a solid striker and has talked about how she’s been working on her grappling to become a more well rounded fighter. The stats back that up, as Grasso only landed one takedown in her first six UFC fights, but has landed three in her last three matches. In terms of her defensive grappling, only one of her three 125 lb opponents attempted to take her down, which was Maycee Barber, who landed three of her five attempts. Looking at her entire UFC career, Grasso has been taken down 15 times on 38 attempts (60.5% defense) and the last five opponents to try and take her down all landed at least two of their attempts. Grasso has gone just 2-3 in UFC fights where she’s been taken down and one of those wins was a split decision. She’s a BJJ purple belt and will look for submissions on the mat, with five official submission attempts since joining the UFC.
Viviane Araujo
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Coming off a grappling-heavy decision win over Andrea Lee, Araujo has won three of her last four fights, with the one loss coming against perennial top Flyweight contender Katlyn Chookagian. After Araujo’s first eight career fights ended early, her last six matches have all gone the distance. Three of her last four wins have come against grapplers, while she’s lost to two of the last three strikers she’s faced.
In her last fight, both Araujo and Lee came out firing and Lee was able to drop Araujo 30 seconds into the first round and then land a head kick as she returned to her feet. Araujo looked to grapple to buy time to recover, but Lee reversed the takedown attempt and ended up in top position on the mat. However, Araujo returned to her feet and then took Lee down with a big slam. Lee was able to get back up after not long, but Araujo continued to rely on her grappling and consistently looked for takedowns in the match. Lee put up less resistance as the fight went on, although by round three they both looked tired. Araujo rode out the final two rounds on the mat to secure a decision win, and while Lee finished ahead in significant strikes 47-39, Araujo led in total strikes 96-64, in takedowns 3-1, and in control time 10:40-0:48. She also had two official submission attempts in the second round as she completely dominated that round, getting a 10-8 on two of the scorecards.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Araujo has three wins by KO, four by submission, and four decisions. She’s been knocked out once (R1 2017), and has two decision losses. The last time one of her fights ended early was a R3 KO win in her 2019 UFC debut, which she took up at 135 lb. Following the win, she dropped down to 125 lb where she’s stayed since. Prior to joining the UFC in 2019, Araujo actually fought her entire career at 115 lb. While all of her 115 lb and 135 lb fights ended early (7-1), all of her 125 lb fights have gone the distance (4-2). After she submitted her first three pro opponents, four of Araujo’s last five early wins came by knockout.
This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Araujo’s career and her first in the UFC. The only other time she’s been in a fight that was scheduled to go five rounds was in 2018 and she won via R3 TKO, so she’s still never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.
Overall, Araujo is a BJJ and Luta Livre black belt. She’s landed at least one takedown in six of her seven UFC fights, with 15 total takedowns landed on 25 attempts (60% accuracy). On the other side of things, she has an elite 90.5% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 21 opponent attempts in the UFC. In addition to being a solid grappler, she’s a crisp striker with good power. She tends to get hit a decent amount and averages 5.13 SSA/min, while landing 4.76 SS/min of her own. She’s been outlanded in significant strikes in five of her last six matches, despite winning four of those six fights. The one other concern with her is her cardio, and we’ve seen her slow down late in fights. That’s especially concerning in this upcoming matchup since it’s scheduled to go five rounds.
Fight Prediction:
Grasso will have a 1” height advantage, but Araujo will have a 2” reach advantage. Grasso is six years younger than the 35-year-old Araujo.
Araujo will have a grappling advantage in this matchup as she’s a BJJ black belt, while Grasso is just a purple belt. However, we’ve seen Araujo tire herself out from grappling in the past, which will make it tough for her to win a five-round decision through grappling alone and leaves her more reliant on finding a finish on the mat. Araujo regularly slows down in the third round of fights and Grasso will have the cardio advantage in this matchup. With that said, neither one of them has ever been in a fight that lasted longer than three rounds, so this will be uncharted territory for both fighters if the match makes it to the championship rounds. We like Araujo to find some grappling success early on, but unless she finds an unlikely finish, we expect Grasso to take over after round two. If Araujo completely gasses out, a late finish for Grasso is possible, but it’s more likely Grasso wins a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Grasso R4, R5 or DEC” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Grasso is coming off her only early win in the UFC, in what was also the first submission win of her career. The late first round finish was good for 117 DraftKings points and 127 points on FanDuel, but prior to that Grasso had failed to top 92 DraftKings points in her first eight UFC fights and had only scored more than 81 once. She’s primarily a striker, averaging 4.92 SSL/min, but has begun to mix in a little more grappling as of late, with three takedowns landed in her last three fights after only notching one in her first six UFC matches. With that said, now she’ll be going up against a BJJ black belt with a 90% takedown defense, so Grasso is less likely to boost her scoring with many grappling stats in this fight. That leaves her reliant on either landing a finish or putting up a huge striking total in a decision win, which is possible as Araujo averages 5.13 SSA/min. One concern with Grasso is that there’s a good chance Araujo will be looking to get the fight to the mat, which would make it tougher for Grasso to hit the striking ceiling she needs to score well in a volume-driven decision. If Grasso does spend a large period of the early rounds on her back, there’s a good chance she’ll fail to return value at her expensive price tag with either a late finish or in a decision victory. With that said, she still has a solid floor as long as she can survive the first two rounds where Araujo is the most dangerous. And if Grasso can avoid getting controlled for periods of time early in the fight, she certainly has the ability to put up a big striking total in what should be an uptempo striking battle whenever it remains standing. So Grasso still has scoring upside, and there’s a good chance Araujo gasses out after the second round, creating further scoring potential for Grasso if she can begin teeing off on a compromised opponent. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Araujo is a well rounded fighter who averages 4.76 SSL/min and 2.2 TDL/15 min and also has an elite 90% takedown defense. She’s a BJJ black belt with multiple submission wins on her record, but all of those came early in her career, all in her first five pro fights. With that said, she has four official submission attempts in her last three fights and will look for finishes on the mat, despite her lack of recent success in completing any. The one concern with that is she tends to gas herself out grappling and generally slows down in the third round of fights. That’s especially concerning as she steps into her first five-round fight in the UFC, as cardio has been her kryptonite. It’s hard to imagine that she will suddenly overcome her past cardio concerns at 35 years old and in a fight that was elevated from three rounds to five about five weeks prior to the event. However, if she proves us wrong then she would almost certainly score well in a five-round decision victory. More likely, she’ll either need to find a finish in the first half of the fight or do enough early on to limp to a close decision victory. It’s also possible she comes in really looking to pace herself, which would help to preserve her cardio, but also slow down her scoring potential. With that said, at her cheap price tag a victory of any kind would likely propel her into winning lineups, unless we see another week where multiple underdogs put up huge scores like last week. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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