The Sheet

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Fight Day Scratches: None

Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Stephanie Egger

5th UFC Fight (2-2)

Looking to bounce back from an armbar loss that occurred just four weeks ago, Egger took this fight up a weight class on just 10 days’ notice. Her last three fights have all ended in a round and a half or less, after she lost a decision to Tracy Cortez in her 2020 UFC debut. She rebounded from that loss with a R2 TKO win over a suspect Shanna Young, before landing a first round armbar against Jessica-Rose Clark in her second most recent fight.

In her last match, Egger played with fire as she took armbar specialist Mayra Bueno Silva down 30 seconds into the first round. Bueno Silva did what she always does and quickly worked towards an armbar, which she locked up almost immediately. That’s when things got weird. Bueno Silva let go of the armbar and put her hands in the air to signify that Egger tapped before the ref actually stopped the action and based on the awkward position along the cage, it was nearly impossible to see if Egger had actually tapped. Egger didn’t say what happened one way or the other and the referee was forced to poll the judges sitting cageside to see if anyone saw the tap, as even the cameras didn’t pick it up. It was eventually decided that she did tap and the fight ended just 77 seconds into the first round with Egger leading 8-4 in significant strikes and 1-0 on takedowns before being submitted.

Now 7-3 as a pro, Egger has three wins by KO, three by submission, and one decision. All of her submission wins have occurred in the first round, as have two of her three TKO wins, with the other ending in the first half of round two. All three of her fights to make it past the midway mark of round two have gone the distance (1-2). She’s coming off the first early loss of her career in a R1 armbar submission, while her previous two losses both ended in decisions.

As a Judo black belt, Egger is most comfortable getting opponents down and trying to finish them on the mat opposed to standing and trading on the feet. She’s landed 6 takedowns on 13 attempts (46.1 %) in her four UFC fights and both of her wins/finishes occurred on the ground. She’s yet to land more than 29 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorb more than 22.

Ailin Perez

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Perez had been scheduled to face the French striker Zarah Fairn here, but Fairn withdrew due to medical issues and then the Judo black belt in Stephanie Egger stepped in on 10 days’ notice. So needless to say, this is a massive change in opponents for Perez. This will also be the first legitimate opponent Perez has ever faced, and she’s relied entirely on bullying low-level fighters with ground and pound throughout her career.

In her last fight, Perez was easily able to get her opponent down early in the fight and beat her up with ground and pound as we’re accustomed to seeing from her. It was rinse and repeat in round two, and after 10 minutes of dominating top pressure the opposing corner threw in the towel. Her opponent was putting up no resistance, so despite not appearing particularly hurt, it’s not that surprising that her corner called it quits.

Now 7-1 as a pro, Perez has four wins by KO, one by submission, and two decisions. Her only career loss came from a DQ for illegal knees. Just keep in mind, she’s been facing nothing but terrible competition throughout her career and only one of her seven wins came against an opponent with a winning record. Her second most recent win came against a fighter who’s literally never won a match and it’s surprising that the UFC decided to give Perez a shot at this point based on the level of competition she’s been facing. Perez made her pro debut at 125 lb in 2018, before moving up to 135 lb for her next two fights. She then took a fight up at 145 lb in her fourth pro fight, which she won by decision, before dropping back down to 135 lb for her most recent four matches. She’ll now be making her UFC debut back up at 145 lb.

Overall, Perez has shown the ability to exert heavy top pressure and rain down ground and pound against low-level opponents, but has never faced anyone even remotely decent. We haven’t seen any sort of diverse skill set from her and she’s fighting in some pretty questionable venues. All of her wins should be taken with a massive grain of salt based on the level of competition she’s been facing, but she is dangerous from top position. However, she doesn't appear to offer much in terms of submissions and she’s just a BJJ blue belt.

Fight Prediction:

Egger will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while Perez is seven years younger than the 34-year-old Egger.

This sets up as a major step down in competition for Egger and a gigantic step up in competition for Perez. There are several variables in play, with Egger moving up a weight class after taking the fight on short notice and Perez making her UFC debut, which all add some uncertainty into the mix. However, Perez has given us no indication that she’s ready to compete at the UFC level, as she’s made a career out of beating up low level opponents, and we really like Egger to find a finish here. Perez has relied on taking opponents down and beating them up with a ground and pound, and Egger is a dangerous submission threat on the mat. That will make it very difficult for Perez to execute her typical game plan and we’ve yet to see how she handles adversity. We like Egger to finish Perez in the first two rounds, most likely with a first round armbar.

Our favorite bet here is “Egger R1 or R2” at +175.

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DFS Implications:

Egger is looking to bounce back from the first early loss of her career and took this fight on short notice up a weight class, none of which is overly encouraging. However, she gets a major step down in competition as she takes on a UFC newcomer who’s exclusively been fighting low-level opponents. So despite the less than ideal circumstances on Egger’s side of things, this actually looks like a great bounce back spot for her. Perez consistently relies on getting opponents down and beating them up with ground and pound, and Egger is excellent on the mat. If Perez tries to take her down, Egger will have a really good chance of locking up an armbar. Egger is a BJJ black belt, while Perez is just a BJJ blue belt, and Egger should be able to run laps around Perez on the mat when it comes to technical grappling. Egger scored 109 and 104 DraftKings points in her two UFC wins, and has been a solid DFS contributor. However, she only averages 1.90 SSL/min and has never landed more than two takedowns in a fight, so she relies heavily on landing finishes to score well. As the second most expensive fighter on the slate, it’s also possible she finds a finish and still gets priced out of tournament winning lineups, but she still looks like a solid play in all formats. The odds imply she has a 69% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Perez is likely in for a rude awakening as she makes her UFC debut and faces the first legitimate competition of her career. She has relied on bullying low-level opponents in the past, by immediately taking them down and beating them up with ground and pound. Amazingly, only one of her seven career wins has come against an opponent with a winning record, and that opponent had previously been knocked out by decision machines Katlyn Chookagian and Jennerifer Maia. We’d be very surprised if Perez was able to come in and simply bully Egger the way she has past opponents. With that said, when executed successfully, Perez’s style of fighting can lead to massive DFS scores, especially on DraftKings, as she puts up huge control time and ground strike numbers. She also lands a decent number of takedowns and seven of her eight career wins have come early. So if we’ve misjudged Egger’s skill advantage in this matchup, then Perez theoretically could put up a slate-breaking score. That’s the argument for having some exposure, but we still fully expect Egger to finish her. The odds imply Perez has a 31% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Khalid Taha

6th UFC Fight (1-3, NC)

Thirteen months removed from his last fight, Taha had been set to face Taylor Lapilus here, but Lapilus withdrew and Quinonez stepped in on 10 days' notice. Looking to snap a two fight skid, Taha is coming off a pair of decision losses to tough opponents in Raoni Barcelos and Sergey Morozov. Prior to that, Taha landed a 2019 third round submission win over another tough fighter in Bruna Silva, but the win was later overturned to a No Contest after Taha tested positive for a banned substance. Taha also notably missed weight by a pound for that fight. He was suspended for a year following the failed drug test and hasn’t won a fight since. Taha originally joined the UFC in 2018 and lost a wrestling-heavy decision to Nad Narimani, before bouncing back with a R1 KO win over Boston Salmon, leading up to his fight against Silva.

In his last fight, Taha really struggled with the wrestling of Sergey Morozov, who was able to take Taha down six times on 16 attempts with over eight and a half minutes of control time. Morozov also finished ahead in significant strikes 50-33 and in total strikes 99-66 as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision victory.

Now 13-4 as a pro, 11 of Taha’s 13 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and two submissions (not counting his R3 submission win that was later overturned to a No Contest). Both of his official submission wins occurred in the second round, while his last six KO wins occurred in round one. The first three knockouts of his career came in round two. He also has two decision wins, which were back in 2015 and 2016. He’s only been finished once in his career, which came in a 2017 R3 guillotine choke. He’s never been knocked out and his other three losses all went the distance. After briefly starting his pro career at 155 lb in 2013, Taha worked his way down to 135 lb by 2014 after landing three straight second round KOs at 145-155 lb. He’s mostly stayed at 135 lb since, but he did briefly move back up to 145 lb in 2018 for his UFC debut and his fight just prior to that. After losing that 2018 UFC debut in a decision against Nad Narimani, who took Taha down 6 times on 11 attempts, Taha dropped back down to 135 lb and landed a 25 second R1 KO against Boston Salmon in his second UFC match.

Overall, Taha is a powerful striker, but only averages 2.69 SSL/min. That can partially be attributed to how much time he spends being controlled and he’s struggled with getting taken down throughout his UFC career. While he’s yet to land a takedown of his own in the UFC on just three attempts, he’s been taken down 16 times on 42 attempts by his five opponents and controlled for 49% of his fight time. Taha has faced a series of tough opponents, but now he’ll finally face a step down in competition in a much better spot to get a win.

Cristian Quinonez

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Coming off a decision win on DWCS in October 2021, Quinonez will be making his UFC debut on a four fight winning streak with three of those fights ending in decisions. His second most recent win came in a five-round decision for the UWC Mexico Bantamweight belt, so we’re less concerned with his cardio even though he took this fight on short notice.

In his last fight, Quinonez patiently outboxed his way to a decision win. The striking numbers were almost dead even, with Xiao Long leading 78-76 in significant strikes, but going 0 for 6 on his takedown attempts, and Quinonez leading 82-78 in total strikes, while landing his only takedown attempt. Quinonez wasn’t able to do anything with his takedown in the first round and his grappling wasn’t very impressive. He later had a big moment towards the end of round two where he landed a knockdown to steal the round and put himself in position to secure a decision.

Now 17-3 as a pro, Quinonez has nine wins by KO, three by submission, and five decisions. He’s been finished in all three of his losses, with two KOs (R3 2014 & R2 2017) and one submission (R3 2018). His only early win since 2018 came in a 2020 R1 TKO against an opponent who’s been knocked out in three of his last six fights. Fourteen of Quinonez’s last 16 fights have made it out of the first round, but only five of those went the distance, and we’ve seen a lot of late round finishes in his fights.

Overall, Quinonez is a patient striker with good movement, but not the most powerful striker. He also hasn’t shown much in terms of grappling, and while he does have a few submission wins on his record, the most recent of those was back in 2018. Quinonez trains out of Entram Gym so he has a good team around him and is the younger brother of Jose Quinonez, who went 5-4 in the UFC before being released in 2020.

Fight Prediction:

Quinonez will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

Taha has really struggled lately, mostly with his defensive wrestling, but will now face a big step down in competition. Quinonez is primarily a striker, so we’re less concerned about Taha getting taken down and controlled here. In addition to that, Quinonez is making his short notice UFC debut, which is always a tough spot to win in. While Quinonez is the longer and more active fighter, Taha should have a major power advantage, and is also the more experienced fighter. The long layoff and previous suspension history for Taha are slightly concerning, but he’s desperate for a win here and we like his chances to get back on track with a finish here. We’ll say Taha wins by R1 KO.

Our favorite bet here is Taha’s ML at -115.

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DFS Implications:

Taha has lost all three of the decisions he’s been to in the UFC, and scored just 20, 31, and 29 DraftKings points in those fights. It is worth pointing out that those all came against grapplers, and Taha struggled with getting taken down and controlled, but he still hasn’t shown the ability to score well in decisions. He hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts and only averages 2.69 SSL/min, so it seems safe to say he needs a finish to be useful in DFS. Working in his favor, Quinonez is making his short notice UFC debut and has been finished in all three of his losses. Taha is desperate for a win and this may be the best opportunity he could ask for to get one. The line has moved against him, driving this fight to close to a pick’em, which should reduce his ownership, making him an even more appealing tournament play. The odds imply Taha has a 51% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Quinonez has seen the line move in his favor as the week has gone on, where he’s now practically a pick’em at an underdog price tag. That should bump his ownership up a little, despite the fact that he took this fight on short notice and will be making his UFC debut. Three of his last four wins have ended in decisions, and he primarily relies on his striking. Taha has never been knocked out and only submitted once, so he’s not an easy guy to finish. Quinonez will need to be careful of Taha’s power, so a super high-volume brawl is unlikely, and Quinonez likely needs a finish here to be useful. His recent win on DWCS would have been good for just 78 DraftKings points and 84 points on FanDuel, and even at his cheaper price tag that would likely require all but 2-3 of the other underdogs on the slate to lose for him to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Benoit Saint Denis

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Saint Denis had been set to face Christos Giagos, but Giagos dropped out and Miranda was announced as the replacement on nine days’ notice. Saint Denis originally made his UFC debut in 2021 up a weight class at 170 lb against longtime UFC veteran Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and suffered a life-shortening beating that amazingly was never stopped by a sketchy referee. Saint Denis then dropped back down to 155 lb and righted the ship with a second round submission win in his last fight. Prior to joining the UFC, Saint Denis had never lost a fight or required the judges, and had only even been to the third round once.

In his last fight, Saint Denis got split open with a knee to the face as he shot for a takedown 20 seconds into the first round, but was still able to eventually land the takedown. While Stolze was eventually able to work his way back to his feet, Saint Denis quickly took him back down following a break for a low blow. He looked close to locking up a rear-naked choke at that point, but Stolze was able to survive to see a second round. Saint Denis returned the fight to the mat in the opening minute of round two and quickly worked his way to a rear-naked choke and forced a tap to secure his first UFC win.

Now 9-1 as a pro, Saint Denis has one win by KO and eight submissions. He’s never been finished, with his only loss coming in a decision in his 2021 UFC debut. His last seven wins have all ended in the first two rounds and he looks to get opponents to the mat and aggressively hunt for submissions. Saint Denis made his pro debut all the way up at 185 lb in 2019, but then dropped down to 170 lb for his second fight, and all the way down to 145 lb somehow for his third match. He then moved back up to 170 lb for his next four fights, before competing at 165 lb twice just before making his pro debut back up at 170 lb and then dropping down to 155 lb for his last fight, where it appears he’ll stay.

Overall, Saint Denis is primarily a grappler and showed a non-existent striking defense in his UFC debut. He started training in Judo as a kid, where he eventually earned his black belt, and was also in the French Special Forces. In addition to his Judo background, he’s a BJJ brown belt. He showed insane toughness and durability in his UFC debut, but there are only so many of those beating you can take. Saint Denis has landed 5 takedowns on 19 attempts in his two UFC fights (26.3% accuracy), while defending all four of the attempts against him.

Gabriel Miranda

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his short notice debut on a week and a half’s notice, Miranda has submitted three straight opponents in the opening six minutes of fights. There’s some question regarding the legitimacy of some of his opponents/wins with the “Face the Danger” organization, which is just something to keep in mind with him. He’s faced numerous opponents with very little experience and losing records, so he’s definitely a guy that comes with some red flags. With that said, he looks like a dangerous grappler even if he has been facing some bums.

The only time Miranda has lost in his last eight fights was when he took on Akhmed Magomedov in 2018. Magomedov did a good job of remaining mostly on his feet and escaping guillotine attempts from Miranda. Instead of engaging with Miranda on the ground after shoving him to the mat, Magomedov patiently kicked at his legs to grind out a decision win.

Now 16-5 as a pro, Miranda has one win by R1 TKO (2013) and 15 submissions. He also has one loss by R1 TKO (2016), with his other four losses all going the distance. Of his 16 early wins, 14 have come in round one, with the other two ending in the opening minute of round two. He’s never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes.

Overall, Miranda is a BJJ black belt and submission ninja with a sick arm-in guillotine choke. He’ll also throw up a variety of other submissions from all types of positions. He’ll gladly jump guillotine or flop to his back to try and get fights to the mat and is a creative grappler who doesn’t fight to win decisions.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’11” but Saint Denis will have a 2” reach advantage and is six years younger than the 32-year-old Miranda.

This is a really interesting matchup between two one-dimensional grapplers. There are tons of question marks and red flags on Miranda’s side of things, but his game plan is clear as he relentlessly attacks submissions. Both of these two fighters have one career win by knockout, with all of their other victories ending in submissions, so it’s possible we see a grappling stalemate where they both neutralize the strength of the other, but we’re expecting to see wild scrambles and numerous submission attempts. Miranda has never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes, and it will be interesting to see how his cardio holds up after he took this fight on less than two weeks’ notice. In fairness, Saint Denis has never won a fight that lasted longer than 13 minutes and neither of these two have any decision wins on their records. Considering Saint Denis had a full camp for this fight, will be fighting in front of his home Paris crowd, has faced tougher competition throughout his career, and already has two UFC fights under his belt, combined with all the uncertainty surrounding Miranda, it’s hard to pick the underdog in this matchup. However, we fully expect Saint Denis to find himself in danger at multiple points in this fight and we would not be at all shocked if Miranda submits him. At the same time, Miranda’s fighting style is not conducive to winning decisions, and if this does go the distance we like Saint Denis to get his hand raised. This is a tricky spot to predict an exact outcome, as either guy could theoretically submit the other, but we actually like Saint Denis to win the first decision of his career.

Our favorite bet here is “Saint Denis DEC” at +330.

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DFS Implications:

Saint Denis is coming off his first UFC win where he scored 105 DraftKings points in a second round submission. Now he’ll get to fight in front of his home Paris crowd in an exciting grappling battle. He’ll face a UFC newcomer who has a cloud of uncertainty hovering over his record and who has never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes. So if Saint Denis can survive the early submission attempts of Miranda, he should be in a good position to secure the win. We expect to see a good amount of grappling, which makes this a better fight to target on DraftKings than FanDuel, but both guys have a 100% finishing rate, keeping it in play on both sites. However, neither one of them has ever been submitted, so a grappling stalemate is also possible. At his high price tag, Saint Denis likely needs a finish to end up in the winning FanDuel lineup unless he lands an absurd number of takedowns (which is possible), while a grappling heavy decision win could still score well on DraftKings. Just keep in mind, Miranda has 14 first round wins on his record, leaving Saint Denis with a non-existent floor if he isn’t careful and gets subbed early. The odds imply he has a 71% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.

Miranda is an early submission or bust play with a suspect strength of schedule, who’s making his UFC debut on just nine days’ notice. That leaves him with an incredibly wide range of scoring outcomes, and while he’s looked dangerous on tape, it’s hard to know how he’ll fare against a step up in competition. Working against him, he’ll be fighting in enemy territory against an opponent who’s never been finished. Nevertheless, his upside is undeniable as he has a 100% finishing rate, with all 16 of his career wins coming in under six minutes. He loves to jump guillotine, which does somewhat limit his DraftKings scoring potential, but at his cheap price tag it’s tougher to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he pulls off the finish. The odds imply he has a 29% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Nassourdine Imavov

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Coming off a pair of R2 TKO wins, Imavov has won eight of his last nine fights, with the one loss coming in a grappling-heavy majority decision against Phil Hawes. Prior to that loss, Imavov won a decision over Jordan Williams in his October 2020 UFC debut. Following the loss to Hawes, Imavov finished both Ian Heinisch and Edmen Shahbazyan in the second round of his last two fights.

In his last fight, we saw a slower paced first round before Imavov took over midway through round two. As Shahbazyan looked to take the fight to the ground, Imavov wrapped up his neck. While he wasn’t able to complete any of his four official submission attempts, he forced Shahbazyan to play defense and took control of the action, finding himself in top position on the mat. At that point, he began landing heavy elbows that split Shahbazyan wide open. He then worked his way into a crucifix position and hammered away at Shahbazyan until the fight was stopped with eight seconds left in the second round. Imavov finished ahead 42-22 in significant strikes and 64-29 in total strikes. While he failed to land his only takedown attempt, he stuffed four of Shahbazyan’s five attempts and finished ahead in control time 3:56-2:34 with four official submission attempts.

Now 11-3 as a pro, Imavov has five wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a R1 guillotine choke in his 2016 pro debut. His other two losses both ended in decisions. Imavov notably fought most of his career at 170 lb before moving up to Middleweight (185 lb) when he joined the UFC. All nine of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with the first seven of his career ending in round one and the last two ending in round two.

Overall, Imavov is a powerful striker and while he’s generally not looking to grapple a ton, he was born in Dagestan, before moving to France, and he has almost as many submission wins as knockouts. He trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and will have the home crowd behind him for this fight. He has a solid left jab and good size for the Middleweight division, which makes it tricky to close the distance on him. He’s been taken down 5 times on 18 attempts (72.2% defense) in his four UFC fights, while landing 2 of his own 10 attempts (20% accuracy). Imavov likes to defend takedowns with guillotine attempts, although we haven’t seen him submit anybody since 2019.

Joaquin Buckley

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Fresh off a post second round TKO doctor stoppage win over Albert Duraev, Buckley has won three straight and five of his last six UFC fights since getting knocked out in the third round of his 2020 UFC debut by Kevin Holland. Eight of his last nine fights have ended in knockouts, with the one exception being a 2022 split-decision win over Abdul Razak Alhassan. However, his last five knockout wins have all come in the later rounds, with four in round two and one in round three. After losing to Holland in his debut, Buckley bounced back with the knockout of the year in October 2020 against Impa Kasanganay. He then kept his momentum going with another second round knockout win over Jordan Wright. He then suffered a setback with a R1 KO loss to Alessio Di Chirico, before knocking out Antonio Arroyo in the third round after that. That led to his decision win over Alhassan before his most recent TKO victory over Duraev.

In his last fight, Buckley did a good job of defending the takedowns of Duraev, stuffing seven of his nine attempts and minimizing the control time and damage the two times he was taken down. We saw pretty modest striking totals in the fight, with Buckley finishing ahead 27-10 in significant strikes and 30-17 in total strikes before the fight was stopped following the second round by the doctor due to massive swelling around Duraev’s eye.

Now 15-4 as a pro, Buckley has 11 wins by KO and four decisions. Four of his knockout wins occurred in round one, five ended in round two, and two came in round three. He’s also been knocked out three times and has one decision loss. Two of his KO losses occurred in round one, with the other ending in round three. Buckley fought at 170 lb until 2019 when he moved up to 185 lb. He’s now 7-2 at 185 lb, with eight of those nine fights ending in KOs.

Overall, Buckley generally is a one-dimensional power puncher, however, in his second most recent fight, we saw a lot more wrestling from him than we had previously. He landed five takedowns on eight attempts in the split-decision win over Abdul Razak Alhassan, after only landing one takedown on 12 attempts in his first five UFC matches and not attempting any takedowns in his most recent fight. At just 5’10”, Buckley is short at Middleweight, although he does have a legit 76” reach. He’s looking to orphan children with every punch he throws, and it shows in the results. Buckley only averages 3.74 SSL/min and 3.42 SSA/min and he hasn’t landed or absorbed more than 51 significant strikes in any of his last six fights.

Fight Prediction:

Imavov will have a 5” height advantage, but Buckley will have a 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as a fun fight between two dangerous finishers, but we’re not expecting to see a ton of striking volume from either guy. Each fighter looks to make their shots count, and while Buckley is the one looking to end fights with every strike he throws, Imavov throws a lot more jabs but also has sneaky power of his own. Imavov is also a submission threat, so if Buckley looks to mix in any takedown attempts, he’ll need to protect his neck or he could get choked out. With that said, we’re expecting it to play out as a striking battle and like someone to get knocked out. We’ll pick Imavov to find a finish, but Buckley is always dangerous and if connects on something clean he could hand Imavov the first KO loss of his career.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at -105.

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DFS Implications:

Imavov is a dangerous finisher who will be fighting in front of his home Paris crowd, but he’s not a guy that lands a ton of significant strikes (4.29 SSL/min) or takedowns (0.6 TDL/15 min). Despite finishing his last fight with a near ideal late second round crucifix TKO, Imavov still scored “just” 98 DraftKings points. However, with the help of four submission attempts, that was good for 120 FanDuel points. He has eight official submission attempts in his three UFC wins, which drives up his FanDuel scoring in general. Just keep in mind, most of his submission attempts come from chokes as he’s defending takedowns and if Buckley doesn't look to grapple, then Imavov is unlikely to rack up many submission attempts. While Buckley has been knocked out three times in his career, he’s also never been submitted, so Imavov is also less likely to actually complete a submission. That will leave Imavov more reliant on landing an early knockout, and the longer this fight goes, the tougher it will be for him to return value at his high price tag. So even if he does land a later round finish, he could still easily get priced out of the winning lineup, especially on DraftKings. Imavov scored 98 and 94 DraftKings points in his recent two second round TKO wins, so we’ve yet to see a real scoring explosion from him, and Buckley is so dangerous that it’s hard to land a ton of striking volume on him, as he averages just 3.42 SSA/min. It’s really hard to see Imavov scoring well in a decision, and he put up just 74 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Buckley is a knockout or get knocked out type of fighter, who has seen 78% of his pro fights end in knockouts. This does look like a tougher matchup for him as he’ll be the much shorter fighter and is taking on an opponent who will have the home crowd behind him and who has never been knocked out. Buckley has averaged 99 DraftKings points in his four UFC KO wins, and 80 points in his lone UFC decision win, which involved far more wrestling than we’ve seen from him in other fights. He only averages 3.74 SSL/min and is facing an opponent who averages just 2.23 SSA/min, so Buckley’s scoring potential will fade as this fight progresses. With that said, at his cheap price tag, it’s hard to see Buckley getting left out of winning lineups with a KO win, even if he doesn’t put up a huge score. And there’s always a slight chance he does come in looking to wrestle more and can serve as a value play in a decision victory. However, we’re pretty much treating him as a KO or bust option. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Michal Figlak

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut with an undefeated record, Figlak is coming off three straight decision wins after four of his first five career victories ended in knockouts. His last six fights have all been with Cage Warriors and his last seven opponents all entered his fights with winning records. So he’s earned his perfect record and he’s looked like an all around solid fighter.

In his last fight, we saw some crazy scrambles on the mat early in the first round before Figlak finished the round in top position. Figlak continued to control both the clinch exchanges along the fence and the striking in round two as he looked like a fundamentally sound fighter and continued to touch up his opponent on his way to a unanimous decision win.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Figlak has four wins by KO/TKO and four decisions. While he landed a first round TKO win in his 2018 pro debut, his last three finishes have all come in rounds two and three. Figlak made his pro debut at 145 lb when he was 21 years old before moving up to 155 lb in his second pro fight, where he’s stayed since.

Overall, Figlak has looked fundamentally sound as he picks apart his opponents with striking combinations, while mixing in occasional takedowns. He tends to push forward and pepper opponents with punches, opposed to loading up on his shots, and generally wears down the opposition as fights go on. He’ll also throw slicing elbows on the mat, and while he’s yet to ever submit anybody as a pro, he had multiple submission wins as an amateur. Still just 26 years old, Figlak looks like an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.

Fares Ziam

5th UFC Fight (2-2)

The UFC actually released Ziam following his recent first round submission loss to Terrance McKinney, but they were in need of additional French fighters for this card so they brought him back on. After losing a decision in his 2019 UFC debut, Ziam won a pair of incredibly close decisions, one of which looked like he lost and the other could have easily been ruled a draw. After his first three UFC fights all ended in low-volume decisions, he only lasted 131 seconds before getting submitted by McKinney in his last outing.

In Ziam’s last fight, McKinney started by missing on a big left hand in the opening seconds, but he used that to carry his momentum into Ziam and win a scramble on the mat to assume top position just eight seconds into the first round. He never allowed Ziam to return to his feet from that point on, as he aggressively advanced his position while mixing in ground and pound. Ziam gave up his back in an unsuccessful attempt to return to his feet, and shortly thereafter McKinney was able to wrap up a rear-naked choke from an awkward angle and surprisingly force a tap to the chagrin of Michael Bisping, who simultaneously proclaimed on the broadcast that Ziam was in no danger. Ziam landed just a single strike in the match and McKinney absorbed no damage in the brief fight.

Now 12-4 as a pro, Ziam has five wins by KO, four by submission, and three decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted in the first round three times and has one decision loss. He hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018, although he did land a third round guillotine finish in 2019 just before joining the UFC. Ziam started his pro career off at 185 lb, before dropping down to 170 lb for his third pro fight. After two fights at 170 lb, Ziam then lost a 159 lb Catchweight match, before moving down to 155 lb in 2016, where he’s since gone 8-3.

Overall, Ziam is a French kickboxer and a painfully patient striker who only averages 2.06 SSL/min and 1.65 SSA/min. He doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, and has only landed one takedown in his four UFC fights. He has a 68% takedown defense and his long legs and lanky frame make him tough to get down, as you can never lift him very far off the ground.

Fight Prediction:

Ziam will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.

Figlak is the much more active fighter in this matchup, and will also have a wrestling advantage. That will leave Ziam reliant on either landing a hail mary knockout or circling away from contact and trying to use his length to counterpunch his way to victory from the outside in another low-volume decision. He will be fighting in front of his home crowd, which could motivate him to be a little more aggressive than he has in the past, but we’re not counting on that. We expect him to continue to throw more feints than strikes as he tries to slow this fight down and steal another decision. Figlak should try to mix in his wrestling, which will make it tougher for Ziam to pull off the upset, but will further contribute to lower striking numbers. If Figlak can get the fight to the ground, there’s a chance he can find a finish as Ziam has been prone to getting submitted. Just keep in mind, Figlak has yet to submit anybody as a pro and it’s more likely he wins a decision here. While it’s hard to completely shake the idea that Ziam could steal a split decision in front of his home crowd if he can simply run away for the entire fight and keep things standing and somewhat close, we really like Figlak to get the win here.

Our favorite bet here is Figlak’s ML at -196.

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DFS Implications:

Figlak could be an interesting DFS option moving forward, as he throws a good amount of volume and mixes in takedowns, but this is a tougher matchup for him to hit a ceiling performance. Ziam is very defensively minded and no one has landed more than 34 significant strikes against him. The larger Octagon in Paris should make it tougher for Figlak to track Ziam down, but there is the potential for Figlak to dominate Ziam on the mat if he comes in with a grappling-heavy gameplan. While Figlak landed two takedowns in each of his last two fights, he hasn’t looked like a guy that will put up eye-popping grappling stats and more so using his grappling to keep opponents guessing. He’s primarily a striker, and Ziam’s length and movement has the potential to give him trouble closing the distance. Figlak’s combination of striking volume and grappling does give him a solid floor, so he’s still in play for smaller field contests, but he likely needs a finish to end up in larger tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Ziam is a one-dimensional, low-volume striker who has yet to top 67 DraftKings points in four UFC fights. He averages just 2.06 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown in four UFC fights. He was actually cut following his recent loss, but they brought him back on because they were desperate for more French fighters on this card. So working in his favor, he will be fighting in front of his home crowd and taking on a UFC newcomer, however, this looks like a tough matchup for him. Even at his cheap price tag, Ziam likely needs a finish here to be useful, and he’s squaring off against an opponent who’s not only never been finished, he’s never lost a fight. Ziam’s low ownership keeps him in the tournament dart throw discussion, but he’s a gross play with a low floor/ceiling combination. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Abus Magomedov

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Once again trying to make his UFC debut, Magomedov had originally been booked to debut against Gerald Meerschaert in 2021 and then Aliaskhab Khizriev in 2022, but ended up withdrawing both times. Then he was scheduled to face Makhmud Muradov on this card, but Muradov withdrew and Stoltfus was announced as the replacement about six weeks out. Magomedov hasn’t fought since December 2020, but he’s submitted his last two opponents. He made it to the finals in the PFL million dollars to first place tournament in 2018, but got knocked out 33 seconds into the championship fight by a 39-year-old Louis Taylor.

In his last fight, things started out as a methodical striking battle with each fighter landing their only takedown attempt in the first round. However, Magomedov interestingly let his opponent back up after taking him down late in the round. Early in round two, Magomedov locked up a guillotine as his opponent shot for a takedown to force the stoppage.

Now 24-4-1 as a pro, Magomedov has 13 wins by KO, six by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. Fourteen of his finishes have come in round one, with the other five ending in round two. All three of his early losses also occurred in the first two rounds.

Overall, Magomedov is a decently well rounded fighter who grew up wrestling in Dagestan, Russia, before moving to Germany when he was 15 years old, where he then focussed more on striking. However, he doesn’t stand out as being exceptional anywhere, and while he’s a patient striker, he still has a somewhat limited gas tank. With that said, he’s shown a solid takedown defense and has good size for the division and has only been finished once since 2013.

Dustin Stoltzfus

5th UFC Fight (1-3)

Seven weeks removed from his first UFC win, Stoltzfus saved his job in that victory after starting off 0-3 in the UFC. All three of those losses all came against solid grapplers in Kyle Daukaus, Rodolfo Vieira, and Gerald Meerschaert, while his recent win was against a one-dimensional striker in Dwight Grant, who was moving up to 170 lb for the first time in the UFC and has now lost three straight. Stoltzfus lost a decision in his 2020 debut against Daukaus, before getting submitted in the third round by both Vieira and Meerschaert.

In his last fight, the first nine minutes played out as a low-volume striking battle before Stoltzfus was finally able to get it to the mat in the final minute of round two. Stoltzfus returned the fight to the ground midway through round three and controlled Grant for the final two minutes to secure the decision win. The fight ended with Grant narrowly ahead in significant strikes 52-49, while Stoltzfus led in total strikes 102-54 and landed two of his five takedown attempts with 4:17 in control time.

Now 14-4 as a pro, Stoltzfus has two wins by KO, five by submission, six decisions and one DQ win. Two of his four losses have gone the distance, while he was submitted in the third round in his other two defeats. He’s never been knocked out. Stoltzfus competed as high as 205 lb some early in his career, but has fought exclusively at 185 lb since 2015.

Overall, Stoltzfus has been largely unimpressive so far in the UFC, but did finally show in his last fight that he can win when he faces opponents who can’t wrestle. He’s a black belt in Luta Livre and landed five straight finishes leading up to his UFC debut. He’s only averaged 2.97 SSL/min in his three UFC fights and has just a 35% takedown accuracy and 46% takedown defense. He’s been taken down seven times on 13 attempts in his last five fights going back to his DWCS match, and all four of the opponents who attempted a takedown during that stretch all landed at least one. Stoltzfus failed to land a takedown on 10 attempts in his first two UFC fights, before landing six of his nine attempts in his last two matches. He hasn’t looked like much of a threat to knock anybody out in the UFC and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019. So while half of his career wins have come early, he doesn’t look like much of a finishing threat at the UFC level.

Fight Prediction:

Magomedov will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

This sets up as a fairly low level fight between two largely unimpressive fighters. Both guys have relied heavily on their wrestling in the past, so it will be interesting to see how the grappling exchanges go. Stoltzfus has found less success when he takes on other grapplers and doesn’t offer much on the feet. He may have the cardio advantage in this matchup, however, so it’s possible he can make up ground late in the fight. We expect Magomedov to find more success early on and slow down as the fight goes on, which is something to keep in mind if you’re looking at live betting Stoltzfus. Both guys are patient strikers, so if the fight remains on the feet it will likely be a slow paced snoozer and we could see somewhat of a stalemate in the grappling exchanges. We’ll give the slight advantage to Magomedov to get his hand raised, either by submission or more likely in a close decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Magomedov DEC or SUB” at +120.

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DFS Implications:

Magomedov is making his UFC debut and hasn’t fought since December 2020, which inherently adds a lot of uncertainty to this fight. However, he’s facing a low-level opponent in Stoltzfus, so it’s certainly not an overwhelming matchup. Magomedov has shown a solid takedown defense and Stoltzfus isn’t a great striker by any means. We’ve also seen Stoltzfus get taken down at least once by his last four opponents who attempted a takedown, so Magomedov has a good chance of boosting his scoring with grappling, in addition to his striking advantage. With that said, he’s a patient striker who generally doesn’t land a large amount of volume, so at his high price tag he still appears reliant on a finish. While Stoltzfus was submitted in the third round in each of his last two losses, he’s never been knocked out and Magomedov has shown questionable cardio in the past, failing to ever finish an opponent beyond the second round. We’re more inclined to think this ends in a low-volume disappointing decision, with some grappling mixed in, but not enough for either fighter to put up a big score. Even though Stoltzfus was finished in each of his last two losses, those opponents only put up DK/FD scores of 62/78 and 84/102. The odds imply Magomedov has a 70% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Stoltzfus is coming off his first UFC win, but still scored just 78 DraftKings points in the decision victory. That win came against a one-dimensional striker who was moving up to 185 lb for the first time in the UFC, after Stoltzfus lost his first three UFC fights against fellow grapplers. Now he’ll face an opponent with a wrestling background, so the chances for Stoltzfus to dominate on the mat are much lower. Stoltzfus also isn’t a great striker and averages just 2.97 SSL/min, so he’ll likely need a finish here to score well. The fact that he just won seven weeks ago could give him a slight bump up in ownership, which reduces our interest in playing him. However, the fact that Magomedov hasn’t competed since 2020 makes this a higher variance spot and he also has shown questionable cardio in the past. So if Magomedov fades late in this fight there’s always a chance Stoltzfus can find a late finish or have a big enough third round to serve as a value play in a decision win. The odds imply Stoltzfus has a 30% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Charles Jourdain

10th UFC Fight (4-4-1)

Jourdain is looking to bounce back from a close decision loss that had Shane Burgos so shook he left the UFC and joined the PFL. Prior to the loss, Jourdain notched consecutive wins for the first time since joining the UFC. He landed a first round submission over Lando Vannata back in April, after winning a decision over Andre Ewell just before that. Leading up to the pair of wins, Jourdain suffered the only early loss of his career in a third round submission against Julian Erosa. Jourdain has still never lost two fights in a row for what it’s worth.

In his last fight, Jourdain turned Burgos into a grappler as the normally hyper aggressive brawling Burgos wanted no part of a striking battle. Burgos was able to take Jourdain down once in the first round, but was only able to control him for a short time as he hunted for a submission before Jourdain escaped and led the dance in striking, finishing the round ahead in significant strikes 24-12 and in total strikes 39-12. Despite the large lead in striking, two of the three judges awarded Burgos the round in front of his home New York crowd. Burgos returned the fight to the mat in round two and that time was able to control Jourdain for four minutes and clearly won the round. Jourdain came out laser focussed in round three and began piecing Burgos up from the start. Burgos tried to engage in more grappling, but Jourdain refused to be taken down and continued to unload on Burgos for the entire round as Burgos just clung on to survive. In just the third round, Jourdain outlanded Burgos 84-26 in significant strikes and 115-27 in total strikes as he put on a one-sided striking clinic. The fight ended with Jourdain ahead 113-42 in significant strikes and 161-67 in total strikes, while Burgos landed two of his seven takedown attempts and led in control time 6:25-2:08. One judge ruled it a draw, giving Jourdain rounds one and three but amazingly awarding Burgos a 10-8 round in round two, while the other two judges gave Burgos the first two rounds. You could argue that Jourdain won the first round and could have even been awarded a 10-8 in round three resulting in a 29-27 victory, but it was a close fight to judge and we expected some home cooking for Burgos going in if it went the distance.

Now 13-5-1 as a pro, Jourdain has eight wins by KO, four by submission, and one decision. Only four of his 12 career finishes have come in the first round and he’s generally a guy that puts people away later in fights. He has four second round wins, three in round three, and one in round five. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has four decision losses. Eight of his nine UFC fights have seen the second round, seven made it to round three, and five ended with the judges.

Overall, Jourdain is a really solid kickboxer and has been extremely durable. Despite being a BJJ black belt, he’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and generally struggles off his back. He will look for opportunistic submissions, but has only completed one in his last 10 fights. With just a 51% career takedown defense, he’s been taken down at least once in each of his last five fights, and 16 times in his nine UFC matches. His defensive wrestling remains his biggest vulnerability and he’s a little too reliant on defending takedowns with chokes. He lands a solid amount of striking volume, averaging 5.85 SSL/min (3rd most on the slate), and has topped 100 significant strikes in three of his last four fights that made it out of the first round.

Nathaniel Wood

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Making his second UFC appearance up at 145 lb, Wood is fresh off a decision win in his first Featherweight fight, after competing at 135 lb for almost his entire career prior to that. He did have one other pro fight at Featherweight earlier in his career, which ended in a 2016 R3 submission win in Bellator. Wood started strong in the UFC, landing three straight late round submission wins in his first three UFC fights. He then got knocked out by John Dodson in the third round of a 2020 match, before fighting to three straight decisions in his last three fights (2-1). His one UFC decision loss came in a close/questionable high-volume fight against Casey Kenney, where Wood outlanded Kenney 136-123 in significant strikes, although Kenney did land two takedowns on six attempts. All seven of Wood’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with five making it to round three, and three going the distance. Prior to his recent win, Wood dealt with multiple fight cancellations, which resulted in a 21 month layoff following an October 2020 match. He’s looking to make up for lost time now as he jumps right back in the Octagon just six weeks after he last competed.

In his last fight, Wood did a great job of attacking the lead leg of Charles Rosa, but didn’t really go in for the kill after having him hurt. Rosa looked somewhat close to locking in a submission as the first round wound down but ended up running out of time. Wood continued to meticulously pick Rosa apart in the later rounds, while being careful not to get entangled in any grappling situations where Rosa would have the best chance to find a finish. Wood finished ahead in significant strikes 97-51 and in total strikes 102-54, while also landing his only takedown attempt and stuffing 7 of Rosa’s 9 attempts. He easily cruised to a unanimous decision, winning every round and even getting a 10-8 round on two of the scorecards.

Now 18-5 as a pro, Wood has nine wins by KO, five by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. Only five of his 23 pro fights have made it to the judges, although he hasn’t finished anybody since 2019.

Overall, Wood is a solid striker who lands a ton of volume, averaging 6.32 SSL/min (most on the slate) and 4.19 SSA/min. He’s also landed 7 takedowns on 14 attempts in his seven UFC fights, but he’s never landed more than two in a single fight. He does a good job of attacking his opponents’ legs, landing 31 leg strikes against Rosa, 57 against Kenney, and 58 against John Castaneda in his last three fights. We’ve yet to see him knock anyone out at the UFC level, and now that he’s moved up a weight class it will be even tougher for him. With that said, he’s a solid striker and an overall well rounded fighter.

Fight Prediction:

Jourdain will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach. Jourdain is three years younger than the 29-year-old Wood.

This sets up as the best fight on the card and should be the frontrunner for fight of the night. Both of these two are young and hungry high-volume strikers who know how to put on a show. While Wood will mix in occasional takedowns, he’s still primarily a striker and we’ll be highly disappointed if we get a second straight striker who refuses to engage with Jourdain on the feet. Nevertheless, it makes sense for opponents to exploit Jourdain’s poor defensive wrestling until he shows he can stop them, so we are expecting Wood to try and grapple some. Three of Wood’s four early losses have occurred in the third round, which is generally when Jourdain is the most dangerous. Therefore, this looks like a good spot for Jourdain to find another late finish and we’ll say he knocks Wood out in round three.

Our favorite bet here is “Jourdain ITD” at +200.

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DFS Implications:

Jourdain landed 84 significant strikes and 115 total strikes in the third round alone of his last fight and has shown the ability to hit a gear few fighters possess when he really gets going. He can be a slow starter at times, which often leaves him reliant on finishing strong, something he’s proven himself to be good at. However, that also makes it tougher for him to win decisions as he’s often trying to dig himself out of an early hole. He has averaged 105 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, posting a pair of multi-knockdown performances in late knockout wins earlier in his career, while landing a first round submission and a high-volume decision win in his last two victories. His striking volume and durability provide a solid scoring floor, and even in his recent decision loss he still scored 59 DraftKings points. We saw Casey Kenney land 123 significant strikes on Wood in his second most recent fight, and Wood averages 4.19 SSA/min (5th most on the slate). There’s a good chance this turns into a high-volume brawl, and if Jourdain can combine a huge striking total with a late finish he has the ability to put up a huge score. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.

Wood is a high-volume striker who leads the slate in significant strikes landed at 6.32/min and also lands 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. Now he’ll face Jourdain, who averages 4.31 SSA/min (4th most on the slate) and has just a 51% takedown accuracy. While we’re unapologetic Jourdain supporters, we also recognize the scoring opportunity that he presents his opponents, especially when they can be had at an underdog price. Jourdain is just 1-3-1 in UFC decisions, and if Wood can mix in some grappling and keep the striking close, while also surviving for 15 minutes, there’s a good chance he can get his hand raised in a decision and serve as a value play at his cheap price tag. Wood scored 77 and 90 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins and if we only see a few underdogs on the slate win then that would likely still be enough to crack winning lineups. We’d be much more surprised if Wood was able to find a finish, although Jourdain has been submitted once in the UFC already, and Wood submitted his first three UFC opponents. The odds imply Wood has a 43% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

William Gomis

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

This fight got added to the card on less than two week’s notice after the Ramos/Henry fight was canceled, as the UFC was desperately looking to keep this card at a somewhat respectable size. Gomis trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and Nassourdine Imavov, so it makes sense why they decided to give him a shot. He had also already been training for a fight on September 2nd. Gomis’ last three and five of his last six fights have ended early, and he’ll be making his UFC debut on an eight fight winning streak. We should point out that his last two opponents both stepped in on short notice after his original opponents dropped out.

In his last fight, Gomis had been scheduled to face former UFC Bantamweight champion, Renan Barao, but Barao dropped out and Gomis ended up facing Jose Marcos Lima Santiago Jr. instead. Santiago came in on a two fight skid and has now lost four in a row, so it was obviously a step down in competition. Gomis completely controlled the fight, nearly locking up a standing choke early in the first round, before eventually finishing the fight with ground and pound in round three.

Now 10-2 as a pro, Gomis has six wins by knockout, one by submission, and three decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2016 R2 heel hook in his fourth pro fight, with his lone decision loss coming in his 2016 pro debut. While two of his last three fights have ended in the first round, his other 10 pro fights have all seen the second round.

Overall, Gomis is a well rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and mat. He’s got good movement and speed, making him a tough guy to hit, and he looks pretty strong in the clinch. He’s still just 25 years old and should be improving between every fight and looks like an interesting prospect.

Jarno Errens

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut on short notice and just four weeks after he last fought, Errens has gone the distance in his last two and four of his last five matches. His only fight in his last five to end early was a 2021 R1 KO and he’s gone 1-1-1 in his last three decisions. His last two fights have played out almost entirely on the mat, with Errens getting controlled for extended periods of time in each. However, he did show signs of improvement in his grappling in his last match, after getting smothered for 25 minutes on the ground just before that.

In his last fight, Errens got controlled on the mat for almost the entire first round, but turned the tables in round two as he controlled his opponent on the ground for the next five minutes. The fight came down to a close third round where Errens was again controlled for an extended period of time after he foolishly jumped guillotine a minute into the round. He momentarily reversed the position and went for an armbar, but closed out the round getting controlled along the fence. The fight easily could have gone the other way, but it was close enough that you can’t be too upset with the results. Nevertheless, Errens was dangerously close to losing his last two fights.

Now 13-3-1 as a pro, Errens has three wins by KO, five by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has two decision losses. Four of his eight early wins ended in the first round, three ended in round two, and one finished in round three.

Overall, Errens is a Dutch kickboxer with solid power, but has been very vulnerable to being controlled on the mat. In fairness to him, he’s said he’s been working on that and he’s still just 27 years old and still trying to round out his skillset. He’ll often try to defend takedowns by going for guillotines, and will look for various chokes on the mat in addition to armbars.

Fight Prediction:

Gomis will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach.

While this fight was thrown together at the last minute to try and salvage an injury ridden card, both of these guys are actually somewhat talented. The one glaring weakness between them is how often we’ve seen Errens get controlled on the mat. Gomis is equipped to capitalize on that, and he’s done a good job of controlling opponents in the past. Gomis is also the faster of the two, while Errens relies more on his power. Gomis had already been preparing for a fight this weekend, while Errens hadn’t and fought just four weeks ago, which also plays into Gomis’ favor. However, neither guy had much time to game plan for the other and with two young fighters making their respective short notice UFC debuts, this is a higher variance spot with a good amount of uncertainty. With that said, all indicators point to Gomis and we like the hometown kid to get the win. The majority of Gomis’ career wins have come early, and he’s certainly capable of landing a finish here, but we like him to win a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Gomis DEC” at +250.

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DFS Implications:

Gomis has won eight straight fights with six of those ending early and mixes in a combination of grappling and striking that looks favorable for his DFS production. We’ve seen him finish fights with large amounts of control time, which makes him a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel—especially in this matchup against an opponent who has struggled with being controlled. Gomis will be making his UFC debut in front of his home Paris crowd. Which should give him a little extra motivation as long as he can handle the nerves that go along with such an occasion. However, he’s still just 25 years old and found out about this fight a week and a half ago, so this should be treated as a high-variance spot. With that said, he has a high ceiling and at his reasonable price tag he could still end up in the winning DraftKings lineup in a grappling-heavy decision win, whereas he’ll more likely need a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Errens is a decent striker who appears to be working on his grappling, but has still struggled with being controlled for extended periods of time, which leaves him more reliant on landing a finish to score well in DFS, as we haven’t seen him fill up the stat sheet in any of his recent fights. He narrowly won a close decision in his last match, after getting smothered on the mat for 25 minutes in a loss just before that. He’s just 2-1-1 in his last four fights and easily could be 1-2-1. He does offer solid power and will look to defend takedowns with submissions, so he does offer decent finishing upside. Just keep in mind, four of his last five fights have gone the distance and now he’ll face an opponent who’s never been knocked out and only submitted once, which was back in 2016. Considering both of these guys are really young and making their respective UFC debuts on short notice, there’s a wider range of potential outcomes here, but Errens just fought four weeks ago, while Gomis had already been preparing to fight this weekend. All signs point to Gomis winning this fight, and Errens appears reliant on landing a finish to pull off the upset and score well. The odds imply Errens has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Nasrat Haqparast

10th UFC Fight (5-4)

Looking to snap a two fight skid, Haqparast is coming off a pair of decision losses to Bobby Green and Dan Hooker after starting off 5-2 in the UFC. He’s fought to four straight decisions since getting knocked out by Drew Dober 70 seconds into a January 2020 fight, and Haqparast’s only early win in the UFC came in a 2019 R2 KO over a suspect Joaquim Silva. Seven of his nine UFC fights have ended with the judges. Prior to his recent losses, Haqparast won a pair of high-volume decisions against a pair of debuting opponents.

In his last fight, Haqparast was massively outstruck by Bobby Green, who lapped Haqparast in significant strikes, finishing ahead 188-76 in the decision win. That’s especially impressive considering Haqparast is known for his boxing and had previously never absorbed more than 78 in any of his eight earlier UFC fights, with six of those going the full 15 minutes. Green topped that number in the third round alone and was definitely feeling it in front of the Houston crowd. Green failed to land the only takedown attempt in the fight.

Now 13-5 as a pro, Haqparast has nine wins by KO (6 in R1, 2 in R2 & 1 in R3) and four decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has three decision defeats. All nine of Haqparast’s pre-UFC fights ended early (8-1 only losing his first pro fight). Haqparast has spent the majority of his pro career in the 155 lb division, but he did move up to 170 lb for a three fight period in 2014 and 2015. He notably went 3-0 at 170 lb before moving back down to 155 lb in 2016.

Overall, Haqparast is a one-dimensional striker who’s failed to land a takedown in his last eight fights. He’s known for his boxing, but got owned on the feet in his last fight by Bobby Green. He averages 5.17 SSL/min and 4.70 SSA/min. Haqparast trains out of Tristar, where Makdessi spent most of his career before leaving in 2018, so take that for what it’s worth.

John Makdessi

19th UFC Fight (11-7)

Seventeen months removed from a split-decision win over a debuting bright young prospect in Ignacio Bahamondes, Makdessi has fought to five straight decisions (4-1) since getting knocked out by Lando Vannata in the first round of a 2016 fight. Interestingly, three of Makdessi’s last seven decisions have been split (2-1).

In his last fight, Makdessi competed in a high-volume striking battle against Bahamondes, who looked to be in trouble early in the fight but hung on to lose a split decision. Makdessi finished ahead in significant strikes 124-112 and in total strikes 145-117. While Bahamondes doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, he did try to at least mix it up some with four takedown attempts in the fight, however Makdessi stuffed all four.

Now 18-7 as a pro, Makdessi has nine wins by KO and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has four decision defeats. Seven of his last eight fights have gone the distance, and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2015, when he knocked out Shane Campbell in the first round. Campbell notably went 1-4 in the UFC and was released in 2016 following his third early loss. Makdessi’s only other early wins in the UFC were a 2013 R1 KO of Renee Forte, who was released one fight later after he went 1-3 with the organization, and a 2011 R3 KO of Kyle Watson, who went 1-1 in the UFC and was released following the loss.

Overall, Makdessi is an aging striker who’s never landed a takedown in any of his 18 UFC fights. He’s put up big striking totals at times, but overall has been somewhat inconsistent. With that said, he averages 5.57 SSL/min and 4.02 SS/min and is coming off the second biggest striking total of his UFC career. He’s content with standing and trading in close quarters and is a black belt in Shotokan Karate and Taekwondo. He trained at Tristar Gym until 2018 when he moved to Roufusport, so he’ll be fighting his old team here.

Fight Prediction:

Haqparast will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. He’s also 10 years younger than the 37-year-old Makdessi.

These two had been booked to face each other at two different points in the past, but they each withdrew once. Haqparast trains at Tristar, where Makdessi used to train, so overall they should be very familiar with one another. They’re both one-dimensional strikers, so this should play out as a pure striking battle and we expect it to be closer than the odds suggest. Haqparast seemed to digress in his last fight, while Makdessi actually looked good in his last outing despite his age. We think this one is more or less of a coin flip, but expect it to go the distance. Because of that, we’ll take the plus money on Makdessi and say he wins a close, potentially split decision.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -165.

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DFS Implications:

Haqparast is entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well in DFS and his only takedown in his nine UFC fights came back in his 2017 debut. While he did score 100 DraftKings points in a 2018 decision win, his other three decision victories all failed to top 80 points. At his high price tag, it’s hard to see him returning value unless he lands a knockout, and we’re expecting this one to go the distance. His fighting style is better suited to the FanDuel scoring system, so we prefer him over there. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Makdessi is coming off a high-volume split-decision where he landed the second most significant strikes of his career, but still scored just 84 DraftKings points. Similar to Haqparast, Makdessi relies entirely on striking volume and finishes to score well and he’s never landed a takedown in any of his 18 UFC fights. The last time he finished anybody was in 2015 when he knocked out a struggling Shane Campbell, which is the only time he topped 84 DraftKings points in his last 10 fights. Haqparast has only been knocked out once in his career, and Makdessi is unlikely to find a finish here. However, it is possible for Makdessi to serve as a value play at his cheap price tag, especially on FanDuel where the scoring is better suited to his style of fighting. The odds imply Makdessi has a 33% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Alessio Di Chirico

11th UFC Fight (4-6)

Desperate for a win, Di Chirico has lost four of his last five fights and is coming off the first KO loss of his career. His only win over that stretch came in a 2021 R1 KO over Joaquin Buckley and you have to go all the way back to 2018 to find his second most recent victory, which ended in a split decision. While his last two fights have both ended in first round knockouts (1-1), he fought to four straight low-volume decisions just before that (1-3). After winning a split decision over Julian Marquez in 2018, Di Chirico notoriously lost a 2019 decision to Kevin Holland in a fight where Holland dislocated his shoulder midway through the fight and still outlanded Di Chirico literally with one hand. Di Chirico showed a super low fight IQ, failing to take advantage of the injury even in the slightest. Di Chirico then lost a decision to a debuting Makhmud Muradov, before losing his third straight decision when he faced Zak Cummings in 2020. Cummings dropped Di Chirico with a head kick as the fight ended and it was very close to going down as a knockout but time expired and Di Chirico stumbled back up to his fight. Di Chirico then landed a head kick knockout of his own against Joaquin Buckley in the first round of his next fight, before getting knocked out from a head kick most recently. So his last three fights have all involved someone getting knocked out or nearly knocked out from head kicks.

His last fight lasted just 17 seconds so it’s hard to take much away from it. Both fighters landed exactly one strike, but Alhassan’s did a lot more damage as he dropped Di Chirico with a well placed head kick that looked remarkably similar to the way Di Chirico finished Buckley in his previous fight as Di Chirico leaned right into the kick.

Now 13-6 as a pro, Di Chirico has six wins by KO, four submissions, and three decision victories. He’s coming off his first career KO loss, but has also been submitted once, with both of those early losses ending in round one. His other four losses all went the distance. He’s lost the last three decisions he’s been to, and his last two decision wins were both split. While Di Chirico does have 10 finishes on his record, eight of those came in his first eight pro fights against a lower level of competition.

Overall, Di Chirico is a patient low-volume striker, who tends to slow fights down and only averages 3.30 SSL/min and 3.24 SSA/min. He’s landed 11 of his 24 takedown attempts over the course of his 10 UFC fights (45.8% accuracy). However, he’s failed to land a takedown in any of his last four fights on four attempts, and the last opponent he successfully took down was Kevin Holland in 2019. We’ve never been impressed by Di Chirico, but he could be fighting for his job here.

Roman Kopylov

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still in search of his first UFC win, Kopylov came into the UFC in 2019 with a perfect 8-0 record but proceeded to get submitted by Karl Roberson in the third round of his debut. That fight played out as a low-volume striking battle leading up to the finish, with Roberson tearing up Kopylov’s lead leg. The fight ended with Roberson ahead 43-37 in significant strikes, while landing one of his three takedown attempts and Kopylov missing on his only attempt. Kopylov then took nearly two years off before returning to the Octagon in October 2021, where he lost a decision to Albert Duraev. Kopylov has now taken another 10 months off and has been incredibly inactive since joining the organization. The last time he won a fight was in 2018, prior to making his debut, and he’s only fought once since November 2019.

In his last fight, Kopylov started slow as he was outlanded 25-12 in significant strikes in the first round by Albert Duraev, who surprisingly didn’t even attempt a takedown in the opening five minutes, despite having a massive grappling advantage. However, after getting dropped in the opening seconds of round two, Duraev remembered he’s a grappler and then began to look to get the fight to the mat. His initial attempts were stuffed, but then Kopylov blatantly grabbed the fence to prevent a takedown and referee Jason Herzog paused the fight to essentially spoon feed Duraev the takedown. Duraev quickly transitioned to full mount and went to work with ground and pound, while also looking for submissions periodically. The second round ended just as Duraev locked up a rear-naked choke, and it looked moments away from being stopped. Duraev tried to get the fight back to the ground in round three, but did nothing to set up his shots and failed to land any of his five attempts in the round. He also looked to be fading quickly and his left eye was extremely swollen. Both fighters were battered and exhausted late in the fight, with Kopylov fighting with his hands on his knees, but neither had enough left to finish the other. The fight ended with Duraev ahead in significant strikes 71-42 and in total strikes 152-54. He was only able to land one of his nine takedown attempts and that was when Jason Herzog placed him in the perfect position to finish it following the fence grab. Duraev finished with five and a half minutes of control time and basically all of his production came in the second round. Nevertheless, he went on to win a unanimous decision.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Kopylov has seven wins by KO and one by decision. He’s never been knocked out, but has one submission loss and one decision defeat. Only one of his seven KO wins occurred in the first round, while two came in round two, two in round three, and two in round four. After winning a decision in his 2016 pro debut, he landed seven straight knockouts leading up to his 2019 debut, but has since lost both of his UFC fights. His last four fights have all made it to the third round, but only one of those has gone the distance. His last two wins both ended in fourth round knockouts and the last time one of his fights ended in the first two rounds was 2017.

Overall, Kopylov is a patient striker and doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, with just one takedown landed on three attempts in his three UFC fights. He averages just 2.72 SSL/min and failed to top 42 significant strikes in either of his UFC fights. He has an 83% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 12 attempts in his two UFC fights. Just keep in mind one of those fights was against a kickboxer in Karl Roberson, who submitted Kopylov on the one takedown he landed, and the other was against Albert Duraev, who’s completely clueless and didn’t attempt any takedowns until the second round when he was already starting to slow down. Kopylov has looked absolutely helpless on the ground and is at risk of being finished anytime his back hits the mat.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’0” but Kopylov will have a 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as a slower paced striking battle between two patient and struggling fighters. Both guys have power in their strikes, but neither one is very accurate (42% striking accuracy for Kopylov vs. 41% striking accuracy for Di Chirico). Neither guy has ever landed more than 65 significant strikes in a fight, so a high-volume shootout is unlikely. The wildcard will be whether or not Di Chirico looks to take the fight to the ground. He clearly should, as Kopylov is helpless on his back, but Di Chirico has a terrible fight IQ and can’t be relied on to make smart decisions. With that said, Kopylov is in constant peril on the mat, so even someone like Di Chirico, who hasn’t been very impressive on the ground but will occasionally mix in takedowns, has the potential to find a finish if he can get Kopylov down. However, if Di Chirico doesn’t get the fight to the ground, we like Kopylov’s chances in a pure striking battle. While Di Chirico has been durable for most of his career, he’s coming off a KO loss after nearly getting knocked out in his third most recent fight as well. He’s been prone to getting kicked in the head and Kopylov is a crisp striker who has the ability to knock him out. It’s still more likely that this ends in a close, low-volume decision, but even if it does go the distance we like Kopylov to win as long as he can keep it standing.

Our favorite bet here is Kopylov’s ML at -105.

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DFS Implications:

Di Chirico is a low-volume striker who only averages 3.30 SSL/min and 3.24 SSA/min. While he’s landed 11 takedowns in 10 UFC fights, he’s failed to land any in his last four matches. He also has a terrible fight IQ and can’t be trusted to make logical decisions. His patient fighting style leaves him reliant on landing finishes to score well, and he’s only finished two opponents in his last 11 fights, with both of those ending in knockouts (2017 & 2021). Now he’ll face an opponent who’s never been knocked out, but has looked incredibly vulnerable on the ground. Di Chirico’s circus music thought process makes it impossible to know if he’ll even try to capitalize on Kopylov’s non-existent ground game, let alone be successful in landing takedowns. He hasn’t landed a takedown since 2019, and generally struggles to control opponents on the mat. Nevertheless, he could blind squirrel his way to a dominating ground and pound performance if he does come in looking to wrestle. Therefore, he does have a solid theoretical ceiling at a reasonable price tag, even if he is completely untrustworthy and lacking much of a floor. After getting starched just 17 seconds into his last fight, he should also be relatively low owned. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Kopylov is a patient striker who has knockout power but doesn’t add much in terms of grappling and has looked helpless when it comes to defensive grappling. Therefore, he’ll need to keep this fight standing to win and things have the potential to turn ugly in a hurry if he can’t. With that said, Di Chirico has the IQ of a rock and hasn’t landed a takedown in his last four fights, so this very well may play out as a pure striking battle. While Di Chirico has been fairly durable for the majority of his career, he was knocked out 17 seconds into his last fight and nearly knocked out as the third round ended in his third most recent fight. Kopylov’s last seven wins all came by KO, however, those were all before he joined the UFC, with the most recent all the way back in 2018. Neither guy lands enough volume to score well through striking alone on a decision, leaving Kopylov entirely reliant on landing a knockout to return value. The odds imply Kopylov has a 50% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Robert Whittaker

19th UFC Fight (14-4)

Looking to bounce back from a disappointing second loss to Israel Adesanya, Whittaker is 12-2 in his last 14 fights, with both of those losses coming against the current champion. The last time Whittaker lost to anyone not named Adesanya was all the way back in 2014, when he got knocked out by Stephen Thompson. Whittaker rattled off nine straight wins following the KO loss, which included an Interim Middleweight Championship win over Yoel Romero in 2017. Whittaker’s last four and six of his last seven fights have ended with the judges, and the last time he finished anybody was in a 2017 R2 TKO win over Jacare Souza.

In his last fight, Whittaker got knocked down by Adesanya in the first round, just like in their first fight, but once again Whittaker survived to see round two. After doubling Whittaker up in significant strikes landed in round one, Adesanya continued to lead in striking in three of the four later rounds. Whittaker narrowly finished ahead in striking in round four, but found more success through his grappling, as he was able to land a takedown in each of the later rounds to finish 4 for 10 on his attempts. However, Whittaker never inflicted any damage on the mat and only finished the fight with 3:40 of control time. Adesanya finished ahead in significant strikes 79-59 and in total strikes 98-74, while quickly returning to his feet when he was taken down. Whittaker found more success in the last couple of rounds, but Adesanya went on to win a unanimous decision.

Now 23-6 as a pro, Whittaker has nine wins by KO, five by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. His lone submission loss occurred all the way back in 2011, while his KO losses were in 2014 and 2019. Whittaker fought at 170 lb to start his career, where he went 3-2 in his first five UFC fights before moving up to 185 lb in 2014, where he’s stayed since. Since moving up to Middleweight, Whittaker has gone 11-2 with his only two losses both coming against Adesanya.

Overall, Whittaker is a well-rounded fighter who has been able to beat everyone they put in front of him lately outside of Adesanya. He has a really solid 83% takedown defense and has only been taken down 11 times on 68 attempts in his 18 UFC fights. He’s also tough to hold down when he does get taken down. With that said, the last four opponents who tried to get Whittaker down were all able to land at least one takedown, although Whittaker still won all four of those fights. Whittaker has also been incorporating more offensive wrestling of his own lately, and after landing just six combined takedowns in his first 16 UFC fights, Whittaker has landed 8 on 17 attempts in his last two matches. While he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2017, he does throw awkward/dangerous head kicks that are hard to see coming. However, now he’ll face an opponent who’s never been finished.

Marvin Vettori

13th UFC Fight (8-3-1)

After losing to Adesanya for a second time in July 2021, Vettori bounced back with a five-round decision win over Paulo Costa in his last fight. We saw a bizarre lead up to that match where Costa initially asked that the 185 lb fight be moved up to a Catchweight before requesting a full blown weight class change as it ended up taking place at 205 lb. Vettori will now move back down to his normal 185 lb. Prior to the loss to Adesanya in Vettori’s second most recent fight, he won five straight fights after initially losing to Adesanya back in 2018. Vettori’s last four and 10 of his last 11 fights have gone the distance.

In his last fight, Vettori landed a career best 190 significant strikes against Paulo Costa over the course of five rounds. Costa was able to return fire with 163 significant strikes of his own in the high-volume brawl. Vettori was only able to get Costa down once on five attempts, while Costa landed his only takedown attempt in the fight. Vettori showed off his durability as he was able to absorb everything Costa hit him with and outlanded his way to a decision win.

Now 18-5-1 as a pro, Vettori has two wins by KO, nine submissions, and seven decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all five of his losses going the distance. He’s fought to four straight five-round decisions (3-1), and will now be fighting in his first three-round fight since January 2020. All 11 of Vettori’s early wins have occurred in the first round, but five of those came in his first six pro fights from 2013 to 2014 and he only has one early win since 2016, which was a 2020 R1 submission over the highly submittable Karl Roberson. Vettori started his pro career in 2012 at 170 lb, but moved up to 185 lb in 2016 and it looked like it took him a little while to really grow into a 185 lb frame.

Overall, Vettori started off as a pure grappler, but has continued to improve his striking in recent years. He’s generally looking to take the path of least resistance, so expect him to grapple with strikers and strike with grapplers. He’s shown the ability to put up big striking and takedown totals, just keep in mind all of those explosion spots were in five-round fights. He averages 4.35 SSL/min and 2.0 TDL/15 min. He’s landed 27 takedowns on 60 attempts (45% accuracy) in his 12 UFC fights, while his opponents have taken him down 8 times on 34 attempts (76.5% defense). Five of the eight times he’s been taken down occurred in his first two UFC fights, and since then he’s only been taken down 3 times on 19 attempts (84.2% defense) in his last 10 fights. Vettori has proven himself to be very durable, but has yet to knock anybody out in the UFC. While he’s somewhat of a submission threat, he still generally relies on outworking his way to decision wins.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’0” but Vettori will have a 1” reach advantage.

Each of these two fighters have lost to Adesanya twice, but remain unbeaten in all of their other recent fights—dating back to 2016 for Vettori and 2014 for Whittaker. So something will have to give here unless this fight ends in a draw. Both guys have the ability to compete on the feet or the mat, but Vettori is more of a submission threat on the ground, while Whittaker is more dangerous on the feet. Whittaker is the better defensive wrestler, but both guys have a solid takedown defense (83% for Whittaker vs. 76% for Vettori). It will be interesting to see if either guy finds much success in getting the fight to the ground, as we’re more expecting this to play out largely on the feet. As long as Whittaker’s excellent takedown defense continues to hold up, we expect him to land the more impactful blows, while remaining defensively sound. We’re accustomed to seeing him win lower volume decisions in three-round fights and don’t expect that to change here. Give us Whittaker in a close decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Over 2.5 Rounds” at -280.

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DFS Implications:

Whittaker has only topped 88 DraftKings points in one of his last seven fights, which came in a high-volume five-round fight where he set career highs in both significant strikes and takedowns landed. Four of his last five wins have come in five-round decisions, but even with the additional rounds to work with, he’s still generally struggled to put up useful scores. Despite participating in so many main events, he’s only averaged 91 DraftKings points in his 14 UFC wins. If we just look at his three round decision wins, that average drops to 73 points, and he’s never scored more than 78 DraftKings points in a three-round decision. The last time he finished anybody was in 2017, when he knocked out Jacare Souza in the second round and scored 103 points. Now Whittaker will face a durable opponent who’s never been finished in his career, making this a tough spot for him to return value. We have seen Whittaker incorporate more wrestling recently and after landing just six total takedowns in his first 16 UFC bouts, Whittaker has landed eight in his last two fights. Just keep in mind those were both five round fights and Vettori is a grappler with a solid 76% takedown defense. So overall, this looks like a really tough spot for Whittaker to score well, and he appears reliant on handing Vettori the first KO loss of his career to return value. And even then, there are ways Whittaker gets priced out of winning tournament lineups if the fight makes it out of the first round. The odds imply Whittaker has a 66% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Vetorri has made a habit out of putting up slate-breaking scores recently, totalling 122 or more DraftKings points in his last four wins. His only loss in his last seven fights was against Israel Adesanya, and Vettori has shown the ability to win fights both on the feet and the mat depending on what the game plan calls for. He’s become accustomed to being the more well-rounded fighter in the majority of his matches, which generally allows him to effectively attack his opponents’ weaknesses. The only problem here is that Whittaker doesn’t have many. Whittaker is a better striker than Vettori and also has excellent defensive wrestling, with a solid 83% takedown defense. It’s also important to keep in mind that Vettori has fought to four straight five-round decisions, so all of his numbers are inflated when it comes to looking at his three-round scoring potential. That’s something the field habitually overlooks, and Vettori has only averaged 76 DraftKings points in his three UFC three-round decision wins. While Vettori’s striking has improved, he’s still never knocked anybody out in the UFC, and the only fighter to knock Whittaker out since 2014 was Israel Adesanya. Whittaker also hasn’t been submitted since 2011 and is overall a tough guy to put away. Vetorri is a decision machine, with his last four and 10 of his last 11 fights going the distance, so it would be really surprising to see him finish Whittaker. That leaves Vetorri as an overowned value play who will need to grind out a decision win, while hoping only a couple of other dogs on the slate win. The odds imply Vetorri has a 34% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Ciryl Gane

9th UFC Fight (7-1)

Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Gane started his career off with 10 straight victories, including seven in the UFC, before losing a decision to Francis Ngannou most recently. Prior to that loss, Gane won the controversial Interim Heavyweight belt against Derrick Lewis in a August 2021 R3 TKO. Gane proved to be too fast, too long, and too technical for Lewis, who simply couldn’t keep up with the fleet-footed Frenchman. That remains Gane’s only early win in his last four outings, as he won a pair of five-round decisions over Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik just before that. Gane only turned pro in MMA in August 2018 after previously competing in Muay Thai from 2016-2018.

In his last fight, Gane did a great job of using his movement to neutralize the explosive knockout power of Ngannou, who also appeared to come in with a more patient game plan than what we normally see out of him. After Gane won the first two rounds by slowing chipping away at Ngannou from the outside, Ngannou turned to a more wrestling heavy approach to win rounds three and four. The outcome of the fight came down the final round and Gane landed his first takedown of the fight a minute into the round. However, as Ngannou quickly tried to return to his feet, Gane leaned back into a heel hook attempt and lost the position. After escaping the submission attempt, Ngannou found himself in top position, where he rode out the round to win a close decision. The final round ended with Gane ahead 7-5 in significant strikes, 1-0 on takedowns, and 2-0 on submission attempts, while Ngannou led 13-7 in total strikes and 2:44-0:39 in control time. Looking at the overall stats in the fight, Gane finished ahead 63-43 in significant strikes and 79-71 in total strikes. Ngannou landed four of his five takedown attempts with 8:29 on control time, while Gane landed one takedown on three attempts with 2:51 of control time. Gane also had three official submission attempts, while Ngannou had one reversal, which was when Gane went for the heel hook. After the fight, Ngannou revealed he had torn his MCL and damaged his ACL just three weeks before the fight, but fought through the injuries.

Now 10-1 as a pro, Gane has four wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. His only career loss came in his recent five-round decision defeat to Ngannou, and he’s never been finished. His last seven fights have all made it past the first round, with six of those seeing a third round, and four going the distance—including three five-round decisions in his last four fights (2-1).

This will be his 5th straight five-round fight in the UFC and all three of his pro fights prior to joining the organization were also scheduled to go five rounds, although none of those made it past round two as Gane finished two of those opponents in the first round and the other in round two. In his four UFC five-round fights, Gane has fought to three decisions (2-1) and landed a R3 TKO over Derrick Lewis in the other.

Overall, Gane is a high-level Muay Thai striker who averages 4.83 SSL/min and 2.27 SSA/min. He’ll also mix in grappling at times, but with just a 22% takedown accuracy, he’s failed to land a takedown in four of his last six fights. After not getting taken down at all in his first seven UFC fights (on just three attempts), Gane got taken down four times on five Ngannou attempts in his last fight.

Tai Tuivasa

12th UFC Fight (8-3)

Tuivasa has knocked out five straight opponents in seven minutes or less after losing three straight fights in 2018 and 2019. Tuivasa started his current winning streak in October 2020 with a first round knockout against Stefan Struve, who quickly retired after suffering what was his 5th loss in his last six fights. Tuivasa then didn’t waste any time knocking out a terrible short notice replacement and UFC newcomer in Harry Hunsucker, who’s been knocked out in the first two minutes in all three of his UFC fights before being cut. Next, Tuivasa knocked out Greg Hardy, who was coming off a TKO loss and then followed up his loss to Tuivasa with his third straight KO/TKO defeat that resulted in him also being cut. In his second most recent fight, Tuivasa knocked out Augusto Sakai, who has now been knocked out in four straight fights. And while the win over Lewis is more impressive on paper than any of Tuivasa’s other UFC victories, keep in mind Lewis has been knocked out in three of his last four fights. So all five of Tuivasa’s recent wins have come against struggling opponents, who have combined to go 0-5 following their losses to Tuivasa.

In his last fight, we saw a slower start with a good amount of time spent in the clinch early on and Lewis landing a pair of takedowns in round one. As Tuivasa returned to his feet after getting taken down, Lewis teed off on him with shots that would put most fighters out. Lewis returned Tuivasa to the mat shortly after, but was unable to keep him there. Early in round two, Lewis charged Tuivasa, aggressively looking for the finish. However, Tuivasa survived and began landing shots of his own after Lewis emptied his tank. Lewis was tired, wobbled, and likely looking for a way out at that point and Tuivasa dropped him with a big elbow along the fence to finish the fight. The match ended with Lewis ahead in significant strikes 27-24, but Tuivasa leading in total strikes 35-31. Lewis notably landed 2 of his 4 takedowns attempts in the match, which is the only time he’s landed more than a single takedown in any of his UFC fights.

Now 14-3 as a pro, Tuivasa has one decision win and 13 wins by KO (11 in R1 & two in R2). He also has one decision loss to go along with a pair of second round defeats—one by KO and the other by submission. Only one of his 14 career wins came after the midway point of round two and he hasn’t seen the third round since 2019. He’s 1-3 in his career in fights that have made it past the seven minute mark.

This will be the 4th five-round fight of Tuivasa's career, but just his second in the UFC. His first two fights scheduled to go five rounds were in 2016 just before he made his UFC debut and he knocked out both of those opponents in the first round. In his only UFC five-round fight, he got knocked out midway through round two by Junior dos Santos in 2018. Therefore, Tuivasa has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes and it’s been over three years since he’s made it to the third round.

Overall, Tuivasa is a one-dimensional striker with no ground game. In his two UFC fights that lasted longer than a round and a half, he averaged 3.93 SSL/min and 4.13 SSA/min, while his overall career numbers are better at 4.54 SSL/min and 3.56 SSA/min. He’s only attempted three takedowns in 11 UFC fights, failing to land any of those.

Fight Prediction:

Gane will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.

This is a major step up in competition for Tuivasa and a step down in competition for Gane. Tuivasa has never finished anybody beyond the seven minute mark, nor has he ever been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes. Gane is incredibly elusive for a Heavyweight and has never been finished in his career, which will leave Tuivasa reliant on landing an early hail mary knockout to pull off the unlikely upset. Gane has the honor of headlining the first ever UFC event in his home country of France, which arguably adds some pressure on him as he tries to bounce back form his first career loss. However, he’s so solid technically that we’re confident he’ll be able to handle the pressure and pick Tuivasa apart from the outside, while remaining defensively sound. The tougher question to answer is whether or not Gane will be able to find a finish. That will likely depend heavily on how Tuivasa’s cardio holds up, as Gane has recently appeared content with grinding out decision wins, as three of his last four fights have gone the full 25 minutes, while the other was against Derrick Lewis who is incapable of going five rounds. Tuivasa certainly doesn’t look like a guy with a great cardio, but it’s still possible that he could hang around for longer than expected in a slower paced fight.

Considering how dangerous Tuivasa is early in fights, we expect Gane to approach this match cautiously in the first two rounds, lowering the chances that it ends in the opening 10 minutes. At that point, we could see Gane becoming a little more aggressive as Tuivasa’s explosiveness fades. Gane has some limited grappling skills, while Tuivasa offers nothing on the mat, so if Gane can get the fight to the ground a submission win is possible and Tuivasa has just a 50% career takedown defense. That muddies the waters when it comes to prop betting, and makes the KO lines a little less appealing. Gane’s history of grinding out methodical decision wins in five-round fights contrasted by Tuivasa’s questionable cardio also makes this a tougher spot when it comes to making a prediction, but we like Gane to win with either a mid-to-late round finish or by decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Starts R3” at -130.

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DFS Implications:

Gane has averaged 91 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but has failed to top 94 points in any of his four recent five-round fights. He scored just 85 and 94 DraftKings points in his two five-round decision wins, and just 39 points in his recent five-round decision loss. As the most expensive fighter on the slate, that likely means he’ll either need to be much more active or land a well timed finish to return value. While it would make sense for him to try and get this fight to the ground as he faces off against a one-dimensional striker with a 50% takedown defense, Gane has just a 22% takedown accuracy and has only landed one takedown in his last three fights. However, if Gane can take Tuivasa down and control him on the mat while landing strikes, that would be one way he puts up a better DraftKings score. If the fight remains standing, it will be tougher for Gane to put up a big score through striking alone without a well timed knockout, and even then there’s a decent chance he’ll get priced out of tournament winning lineups. As the biggest favorite on the slate, he still makes for a great low-risk and small-field tournament play, but there are definitely ways he wins and gets left out of larger tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has an 81% chance to win, a 54% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Tuivasa is coming off five straight KO wins, but will now face the toughest test of his career as he goes against a very mobile opponent who’s never been finished. Tuivasa has impressively averaged 104 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins and 13 of his 14 career victories have come by KO—all in under seven minutes. While that means he almost always scores well when he wins, it also limits his path to victory to landing a knockout in the first round and a half. If he is able to become the first fighter to ever finish Gane, it would be shocking to see him left out of tournament winning lineups, but he looks like nothing more than a hail mary KO or bust play. The oddsmakers aren’t giving him much of a chance to pull off the upset and neither are we, but crazy things happen every week and it only takes one well-placed strike at Heavyweight to change things in an instant. The odds imply Tuivasa has a 19% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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