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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut on relatively short notice, Cavalcanti was announced as the replacement for Hailey Cowan just 15 days before the fight. Cavalcanti is coming off a five-round decision win for the LFA Bantamweight belt, after landing a pair of knockouts just before that. The most recent of those finishes was also at 135 lb, but the previous one was at 145 lb. Cavalcanti took on a much smaller opponent in that match, who only weighed in at 137 lb, in a fight where you wonder how it even got sanctioned with such a weight difference. Just before that, Cavalcanti suffered the only loss of her career in a 2022 split decision in a PFL fight that took place all the way up at 155 lb. That came just after Cavalcanti won a 145 lb 2021 decision over Nora Cornolle, who was making her pro debut and will also be making her UFC debut alongside Cavalcanti on this upcoming card. Three years before that win, Cavalcanti made her pro debut on the Portugal regional scene in a 2018 R1 knockout victory against an opponent fighting for the first and only time. So while Cavalcanti turned pro five years ago, all but one of her fights have occurred in the last 26 months.
Still just 5-1 as a pro, Cavalcanti has three wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Two of her finishes ended in round one, with the other coming in round two. Her only loss was a split decision at 155 lb and she’s never been finished in her brief career. Cavalcanti has competed anywhere from 135 lb to 155 lb.
Overall, Cavalcanti is a solid striker, but doesn't add much of anything in terms of grappling. She’s got really good size and uses it well with a combination of straight shots and kicks. She’s shown the ability to put up big striking numbers and has pretty decent power. She trains at Black House MMA in California with a lot of other high-level fighters, so she has a good team around her.
Zarah Fairn
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Fairn had been scheduled to fight Hailey Cowan here, but Cowan dropped out and Cavalcanti was announced as the replacement on August 18th, 15 days out.
Coming off a high-volume decision loss to Josiane Nunes, Fairn finally got to showcase her striking and actually finished ahead in significant strikes 117-102, but lost a unanimous 29-28 decision. She landed a ridiculous 48 significant strikes in the opening five minutes and won round one on all three score cards, but slowed down after that and lost each of the later rounds. Prior to that loss, Fairn dropped out of three straight fights due to botched weight cuts and is always someone to be concerned about on the scale. Before her series of withdrawals, Fairn was finished in the first round in each of her initial two UFC fights. The first of those came against Megan Anderson in 2019, who submitted Fairn with just over a minute to go in round one. Next, Felicia Spencer finished Fairn with ground and pound, also late in round one.
Now 6-5 as a pro, Fairn has four wins by first round TKO and two decision victories. She’s been submitted once, has one TKO loss, and lost three of the five decisions she’s been to. Both of her early losses also ended in round one and all 11 of her pro fights either ended in round one (4-2) or went the distance (2-3). One of her two decision wins was a two round fight and she’s just 1-3 in fights that have seen a third round. Fairn has competed at anywhere from 135 lb to 152 lb in her career, but all three of her UFC fights were at 145 lb and she’s botched the weight cut every time she’s tried to cut below that in the UFC.
Overall, Fairn is a tall one-dimensional striker who has looked helpless on the mat. In her three UFC fights, she hasn’t attempted any takedowns, while her opponents got her down on two of their four attempts (50% defense). She showed the ability to put up bi striking numbers in her last fight when she’s not on her back, but also slowed down as that fight went on and will not be cutting additional weight, which is concerning for both her cardio and durability. She’ll turn 40 in December and at 0-3 in the UFC you have to imagine she’s fighting for her job here in front of her home crowd. We expect her to leave it all out there, as her entire career has led up to this one moment and it’s now or never for Fairn.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are listed at 5’8” with a 72” reach, while Cavalcanti is 14 years younger than Fairn.
This sets up as a fun striking battle between two giant women. While it’s possible that Cavalcanti could mix in a takedown attempt or two, she’s generally content with keeping fights standing and Fairn doesn't even know how to spell takedown. Fairn came out of the gates firing in her last matchup and we expect a similar start for her here, because what does she have to lose at this point in her career? Cavalcanti is the superior fighter, but Fairn did have more time to prepare for this fight and will be in front of her home crowd, while Cavalcanti flew in from California and only had two weeks to prepare. That creates a sliver of doubt for Cavalcanti, but we still like her chances to outland her way to victory. It’s possible we see a knockout, but this is still more likely to go the distance and we’ll take Cavalcanti by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -108.
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DFS Implications:
Cavalcanti is a talented striker with the ability to put up solid striking totals, but doesn’t add much in the way of grappling. She’s making her UFC debut in enemy territory and only had a couple of weeks to prepare, but she gets a favorable matchup against an 0-3 39-year-old opponent who struggles to make weight and who has been finished in the first round in two of her three UFC losses. Fairn also averages 6.74 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate) and this looks like a good spot for Cavalcanti to showcase her striking as she comes in as the biggest favorite on the card. She also has the lowest chances of getting finished according to the odds, which makes her a solid low-risk play, with a high floor and ceiling scoring combination. It’s also possible Cavalcanti will look to add in some rare grappling based on how bad Fairn has looked on the mat, and Cavalcanti does train with talented grapplers like Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci at Black House MMA. There’s always a little bit of uncertainty in women’s MMA and for debuting fighters, but we really like this spot for Cavalcanti and think she’s an interesting young prospect. The odds imply Cavalcanti has a 75% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Fairn finally showed some signs of life in her last loss, as she landed 117 significant strikes in the decision defeat. Prior to that, she had been finished on the mat in the first round in both of her UFC fights and hadn’t competed in three years following one botched weight cut after the next. She’s approaching 40 years old now and is in a do or die spot for her career, but she’ll get to fight in front of her home crowd and this will be her superbowl. Look for her to leave it all out there. We could see her die on her shield in this one as she faces a talented young opponent, but there’s always a chance Fairn could land a knockout or win a greasy decision in front of her home crowd. While that’s not what we’re expecting, we’re also not completely ruling it out. Whoever wins here should score decently at fairly low ownership and it’s an interesting fight to target in tournaments, that should provide a good amount of leverage on the field if the winner ends up in the optimal. The odds imply Fairn has a 25% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Farid Basharat
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a decision win in his UFC debut against a dangerous Da'Mon Blackshear, Basharat remains undefeated as a pro. While six of his 10 wins have come early, he’s seen the second round in six straight fights, but three of those matches ended in late round submission wins. Prior to his last fight, Basharat dominated in a decision win on DWCS, where he finished ahead in significant strikes 116-27, in total strikes 163-39, in takedowns 3-0, and in control time 9:05-0:00. While his last two fights both went the distance, he finished six of his previous seven opponents.
Now 10-0 as a pro, Basharat has one knockout win (R1 2019), five submissions, and four decision victories. All five of his submission wins have come by rear-naked choke, with four ending in the later rounds.
Overall, Basharat is a really solid fighter, just like his brother Javid. He has a Taekwondo background and is also a really solid grappler, with a great takedown defense and heavy top pressure. He’s quick on his feet, counters well, and is overall really well rounded. He’s trained with lots of big names and everyone has nothing but good things to say about the pair of Basharat brothers. Farid looks a little more aggressive than his brother Javid, but both guys fight smart and rarely find themselves in bad situations. Farid said he really wants to get a finish here, so we’ll see if he can live up to his words.
Kleidison Rodrigues
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Rodrigues will now be moving up to 135 lb for the first time after missing weight so badly (3 lb) for his last 125 lb fight that Tatsuro Taira declined to move forward with the match. That was the second straight time Rodrigues missed weight, after missing by a pound in his previous match. Following that previous miss, he went on to knock out a fragile Shannon Ross in just 59 seconds with a heavy barrage of strikes. Prior to that he lost a split-decision in his UFC against C.J. Vergara, where Rodrigues got controlled for essentially the entire second round on the mat, by Vergara, who’s not known for his grappling. Rodrigues then gassed in the third round, but never stopped fighting to at least make the decision close. Leading up to that loss, Rodrigues won six straight fights and punched his ticket to the UFC with a decision win on DWCS in September 2021. Rodrigues won the vacant Jungle Fight Flyweight belt with a second round rear-naked choke in his last fight before going on DWCS, which was all the way back in 2019.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Rodrigues has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. Five of his six finishes have come in the first round, with the other ending midway through round two. Both of his career losses ended in split-decisions and he’s never been finished.
Overall, Rodrigues is a dangerous and aggressive Brazilian striker, who’s also shown the ability to finish fights on the mat. He’s most dangerous on the feet as he throws a plethora of different attacks at his opponents, including a high number of spinning attacks. He’s incredibly explosive both in his striking and on the ground, as he’s shown the ability to explode out of bottom position. However, it’s possible he relies on his athleticism a little too much at times, which may have contributed to him gassing out in his debut. He’s still a relatively young prospect at just 27 years old, so he should be continuing to improve. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Rodrigues landed 2 of his 8 takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 2 of their 6 attempts (66.7% defense). It will be interesting to see how Rodrigues looks on the scale as he makes his Bantamweight debut.
Fight Prediction:
Basharat will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Both of these two young prospects have been pretty impressive and it’s a shame that one of them will have to take a loss here. We don’t know how Rodrigues will look at the new weight class, but after missing the mark on the scale in each of his last two outings it’s not that surprising that he’s moving up. Considering that he got controlled on his back for a full round by C.J. Vergara at 125 lb, we definitely have some concerns with how he’ll handle larger wrestlers at 135 lb, like in this next matchup. While Rodrigues is an explosive striker, it will also be interesting to see how his power translates up a weight class. The UFC didn’t do him any favors in his first appearance at 135 lb, and it actually seems like they’re punishing him for back-to-back misses and screwing up the last card. While we’ve always liked the potential we saw from Rodrigues, the grappling of Basharat will likely be too much for him and we like Basharat to control this fight on the mat and lock up a submission in the later rounds once Rodrigues begins to slow down.
Our favorite bet here is “Basharat R2 or R3 SUB” at +750.
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DFS Implications:
Basharat is coming off a decision win in his UFC debut that was good for 82 DraftKings. It wasn’t the most exciting performance, but he showed a well-rounded skill set that has the potential to score much better in the future. Backing that theory up, his previous decision win on DWCS would have scored 117 DraftKings points and 108 points on FanDuel. While he’s a dangerous striker, all but one of his early wins have come by rear-naked choke, with most of those finishes occurring in the later rounds. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s moving up from 125 lb to 135 lb for the first time, and Basharat’s size advantage could help him to dominate this fight on the mat and potentially lock up another late submission like he has at multiple points in the past. We’ve seen Rodrigues get controlled on the mat at 125 lb against far worse opponents, so there’s no reason to think Basharat can’t find a ton of grappling success in this fight. That gives him a safer floor on DraftKings than FanDuel, but he has the potential to put up a big score on both sites if he can land a finish. The odds imply Basharat has a 74% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Rodrigues scored a face-melting 131 DraftKings points in a 59 second R1 KO in his last fight against a terrible Shannon Ross, but will now be moving up to 135 lb and facing a really tough undefeated opponent in Basharat. We don’t know how Rodrigues will fare in the new weight class, but you have to imagine his power will be a little less effective than it was against smaller opponents at 125. He may also have a tougher time in the grappling exchanges, and he’ll likely be reliant on landing an early knockout to score well here, as we expect him to get controlled for extended periods of time in the fight. His recent scoring explosion should drive his ownership up some, which lowers his tournament appeal, especially on this smaller slate where it will already be harder to create unique lineups. We’ll let the field chase past results with Rodrigues here and we’re far more interested in playing Basharat in this fight. The odds imply Rodrigues has a 26% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Joselyne Edwards
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Coming off a bullshit split decision win over Lucie Pudilova, Edwards got taken down twice and controlled for six and a half minutes in the first two rounds, yet somehow won the first round on all three scorecards. That was Edwards’ second straight split decision win, with the previous victory coming against Ji Yeon Kim, who normally competes at 125 lb, while Edwards was coming down from 145 lb. Just before that, Edwards outlanded her way to victory against a terrible Ramona Pascual, after getting dominated on the mat in her two UFC losses by Jessica-Rose Clark and Karol Rosa. Edwards also has a decision win over Wu Yanan in her UFC debut and all six of Edwards’ UFC fights went the distance. She outlanded her way to victory in all four of her wins, while she got dominated on the mat in both of the losses. She also got dominated on the mat in her recent “win” but did finish ahead in striking there.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Edwards has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and five decision victories. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once, and has three decision losses, including a five-round split-decision loss to a terrible Sarah Alpar in a 2018 LFA Bantamweight title fight. Edwards’ submission game appears limited to looking for armbars off her back, which is how she finished her last two submission wins. All eight of her early wins occurred in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and two in round two. Three of her five knockouts occurred in under 60 seconds, but none of those were against opponents with winning records. After eight of her first nine pro fights ended early, seven of her last eight went the distance. Edwards has competed at anywhere from 125 lb to 145 lb, but most of her career has been at 135 lb. Ever since she took a fight at 145 lb in 2022, she’s struggled to make it back down to 135 lb, missing weight in each of her last two fights.
Overall, Edwards is basically a one-dimensional striker with a background in boxing, but she will look for armbar attempts off her back, which is really the extent of her grappling. In her six UFC fights, she only landed 2 of her 13 takedown attempts (15.4% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 13 of their 37 attempts (64.9% defense). All five of the opponents who tried to get her down were successful, with three of them landing multiple of their attempts. Edwards has really struggled with being controlled when she gets taken down, and doesn’t do a good job of getting back up. She relies entirely on her striking volume to win fights, averaging 5.30 SSL/min, despite all the time she’s spent being controlled in her career. She landed 101 or more significant strikes in two of her last three fights. After missing weight in each of her last two matches, Edwards is obviously someone to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Nora Cornolle
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut just 26 months after her pro debut, Cornolle has finished six straight opponents in the first two rounds, after losing a decision in her July 2021 pro debut to Jacqueline Cavalcanti, who will also be making her UFC debut on this card. She’s landed four straight TKOs, but the last two of those ending in round one. However, her most recent win, resulted when her opponent suffered a freak knee injury before much could happen in the match. Prior to that, Cornolle took on an opponent making her pro debut and easily finished her in round one with ground and pound after flattening her out on the mat following a 50/50 position. Leading up to that win, she landed a pair of second round TKOs via ground and pound.
Still just 6-1 as a pro, Cornolle has five wins by KO/TKO and one submission victory. Her only loss was a decision in her 2021 pro debut, which is the only time she’s seen the third round. One thing to keep in mind is that she’s faced a very low-level of competition, to the extent that her second most recent opponent was making her pro debut. Cornolle turned pro at 145 lb, before dropping down to 135 lb in her second pro fight. She’s also had a couple of 139 and 142 lb Catchweight matches.
Overall, Cornolle is a solid striker with a Muay Thai background, who will also look to take opponents down and finish them on the mat with ground and pound. She’s very big and physical and does a good job of landing elbows and knees out of the clinch. Despite already being 33 years old, she’s still very early in her MMA career, so we should expect to see some growing pains from her as she begins facing more legitimate competition. We’re very interested to see how her finishing ability translates against legitimate competition at the next level.
Fight Prediction:
Edwards is listed as having a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while she’s also six years younger than Cornolle.
While both of these two come from striking backgrounds, we expect Cornolle will have done her homework and plan on mixing in some takedown attempts. The only thing Edwards knows how to do off her back is to look for armbars and she hasn’t landed one of those since 2018. Cornolle is big and physical, and should be able to beat Edwards up on the ground if she can get her down. If it stays standing, Edwards is generally looking to land kicks from the outside to outpoint her way to victory, but will let her hands go in flurries of punches at times. However, Cornolle looks like the more powerful striker and will mix in more damaging elbows and knees. While Edwards has never been knocked out, she’s also never faced anyone that has legitimate knockout power. Cornolle does. So we wouldn’t get too hung up on Edwards’ past durability and we’re picking the slight underdog in Cornolle to win, with a good chance she can finish Edwards on the mat with ground and pound.
Our favorite bet here is “Cornolle’s ML” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Edwards has averaged 81 DraftKings points in her four UFC wins, all of which went the distance, with the last two being split. She should have lost her last fight after getting controlled on the mat for the majority of the first two rounds, but the Kansas City judges disagreed. She only scored 65 DraftKings points in that “win” after scoring 82, 99, and 77 points in her first three victories. So she’s shown a decent floor and had one higher scoring victory, but relies on landing a ton of striking volume to score well, as she offers very little in terms of grappling. Cornolle has a Muay Thai background and is often content working out of the clinch, which could limit Edwards’ ability to put up the huge striking total she needs to score well in a decision, but Edwards will have the bigger cage to work with, so maybe she can control the distance and just leg kick her way to victory again. Keep in mind, Edwards is going into enemy territory for this fight, which isn’t ideal for somehow who’s relied on close decisions going her way to win UFC fights. At her reasonable price tag and on a smaller slate, it’s certainly possible that Edwards can score enough to be useful in a decision, but we don’t love her here. The odds imply Edwards has a 52% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Cornolle has finished six straight opponents in the first two rounds and comes into the UFC with a 100% finishing rate, but all of those wins came against a low level of competition, which is most evident when you see that her second most recent victory came against an opponent making her pro debut. However, she can only fight the people they stick in front of her, and after losing a decision in her 2021 pro debut, she’s bounced back nicely. While she has spent a decent amount of time being controlled along the fence, she lands good elbows and knees out of the clinch and once she can get opponents to the mat she has the ability to unload with violent ground and pound to force stoppages. Obviously that won’t be as easy at the UFC level, but she’s shown a lot of theoretical scoring upside. She opened the week as a slight dog, but has been bet up to a near pick’em. That leaves her slightly underpriced on DraftKings, which annoyingly should bump up her ownership a little if we don’t get some Edwards push back. Nevertheless, she looks like a high-ceiling play with solid upside, as she faces an opponent who hasn’t finished anybody in six UFC fights and struggles with being taken down and controlled. The odds imply Cornolle has a 48% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Ange Loosa
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Just over a year removed from his first UFC victory, Loosa won a high-volume decision over AJ Fletcher in an action packed fight. Fletcher had Loosa badly hurt late in round two and nearly finished him, but instead gassed out pushing for the finish, in a fight that took place at elevation in Salt Lake City. Loosa then nearly finished an exhausted Fletcher in round three with extensive ground and pound, but with a long leash from the ref the fight somehow managed to go the distance. Loosa finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 129-87 and in total strikes 241-103, while landing two of his four takedown attempts with five and a half minutes of control time. Prior to that, Loosa lost a high-volume striking in his 2022 UFC debut against Mounir Lazzez, who outlanded Loosa, 141-88 in significant strikes, while also stuffing both of his takedown attempts. Loosa also absorbed more than 100 significant strikes (108-64) in his DWCS appearance back in 2021, when he showed off his durability in a decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena. After losing that fight, Loosa returned to the regional scene and won a decision just two weeks before getting the call from the UFC to make his short notice debut on just four day’s notice against Mounir Lazzez. While Loosa has never lost two fights in a row, he’s struggled to string wins together, as he’s traded wins and losses over his last seven outings, and is now coming off a win. The last time one of his fights ended early was in 2016, after he finished his first six pro opponents in round one. Since 2016, he’s fought to six straight decisions (3-3) and lost six straight rounds to a pair of one-dimensional strikers in Jack Della Maddalena and Mounir Lazzez.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Loosa has five wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses going the distance. All of those losses occurred in his last six fights. Loosa’s training partners have said he’s calmed down some after being kind of wild earlier in his career. His record backs that up, as his first six career fights all ended in first round wins, while his last six matches all went the distance.
Overall, Loosa is a well rounded fighter who has both the ability to strike and wrestle. He’s a former training partner of Kamaru Usman, and currently trains out of Kill Cliff FC with guys like Gilbert Burns, so he’s gotten lots of experience outside of the Octagon. While he has power in his strikes, he misses a lot and has just a 44% striking accuracy. And while he’s durable, he absorbs a ton of strikes, averaging 7.47 SSA/min (most on the slate). It seems like he relies too much on his power and durability, which results in him getting outstruck and makes it tougher for him to win fights unless he dominates the wrestling exchanges or finishes his opponents. And with that in mind, between his DWCS appearance and his two UFC fights, he’s only landed 3 of his 10 takedown attempts (30% accuracy), while defending all nine of the attempts against him. The fact that he went six rounds against a pair of one-dimensional strikers in Maddalena and Lazzez and only landed one total takedown on six attempts is somewhat concerning for Loosa’s wrestling upside moving forward, but he’ll get a great matchup to show off his wrestling here.
Rhys McKee
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)McKee will be making his return to the UFC after getting cut in 2020 following an 0-2 start. The UFC did him no favors in his first stint with the organization, as they paired him up with Khamzat Chimaev in his McKee’s July 2020 UFC debut. McKee got shut out on the statsheet in that fight, as Chimaev outlanded him 40-0 in significant strikes and 68-0 in total strikes, while taking him down and controlling him for all but 10 seconds of a three minute fight, before finishing him with ground and pound. McKee then lost a decision to UFC veteran Alex Morono and got outlanded 176-124 in significant strikes and 3-0 in takedowns, all career best numbers for Morono. The UFC had seen enough at that point and released McKee before he even got a third fight. At that point McKee returned to Cage Warriors and rattled off three straight late round KO/TKO wins, with the last two of those being for the Welterweight belt. The first of those title fights got pretty dicey, as McKee got taken down five times and suffered a really nasty cut over his eye from a slicing elbow that would have stopped many fights. However, with a long leash from the doctor, McKee was able to survive and fold his opponent over in the third round to secure the Cage Warriors title. He then defended the belt in a post R4 corner stoppage TKO win against a 39-year-old opponent who retired immediately afterwards.
Now 13-4-1 as a pro, McKee has 10 wins by KO/TKO and three submission victories. One of his submission wins occurred in his 2015 pro debut, with his other two coming in 2017 and 2019, and he’s typically looking to knock opponents out. While 5 of his 10 knockouts occurred in the first round, his last three all came in rounds three and four and he hasn’t put anyone away in the opening five minutes since 2019. He also has two first round TKO losses and two decision defeats, going 0-2-1 in his three career decisions. McKee made his 2015 pro debut at 170 lb, but then dropped down to 155 lb until 2019, when he moved back up to 170 lb one fight before making his UFC debut. It looks like he’s finally started to fill out his frame at 170 lb now.
Overall, McKee is an uptempo brawler who pressures opponents with a high-volume attack of strikes. He’s typically not looking to grapple any, and defensive wrestling has been his biggest weakness, as we’ve seen him get dominated on that mat at multiple points. He’ll never shy away from a firefight, and is happy to take one to land one. At 6’2” with a 78” reach, he’s got good size for the division, despite the fact that he spent so much time at 155 lb. McKee didn’t have much of a chance to showcase his skills in his first UFC stint, but we expect to see an improved version of him in his return to the organization, although defensive wrestling remains a concern and he still looks like a one-dimensional striker.
Fight Prediction:
McKee will have a 4” height and reach advantage.
While stylistically this sets up well for Loosa to find wrestling success, the same could have been said about his matchups against Jack Della Maddalena and Mounir Lazzez and Loosa lost every single round in those two decisions, while landing just one of his six takedown attempts. He got massively outlanded in striking in both of those matches and we see a similar result here. We’re not convinced that Loosa is the guy we want him to be. He can be too content with keeping fights standing and isn’t very accurate with his striking. And while he’s never been finished before, he was moments away from getting knocked out in the second round of his last fight, before AJ Fletcher gassed out. If he hadn’t gone the distance with Della Maddalena, would we even be talking about how durable Loosa has been? Absorbing the amount of damage he does tends to catch up with you eventually and we actually think McKee has a really good shot at handing Loosa the first early loss of his career in a late round knockout. And even if McKee can’t get him out of there, we like his chances to outland his way to victory. He just needs to avoid getting controlled on the mat for two of the three rounds and we like his chances of pulling that off. McKee by R2 or R3 TKO is our pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Rhys McKee R2 or R3 KO” at +1100.
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DFS Implications:
Loosa absolutely smashed in his recent high-volume decision win, scoring 124 DraftKings points and 109 points on FanDuel. Just keep in mind, that fight took place at elevation in Salt Lake City and AJ Fletcher completely gassed out late in round two after nearly knocking Loosa out. That allowed Loosa to beat up on a corpse for the final five minutes, where he had four minutes of control time and landed 116 total strikes. Nevertheless, Loosa’s combination of striking and wrestling provide him the ability to score well even without a finish, which is good because he hasn’t finished anybody since 2016. He averages 6.24 SSL/min and 7.47 SSA/min, while also attempting 3.3 TD/15 min. However, it is concerning that Loosa only landed one of his six takedown attempts against a pair of one-dimensional strikers in Jack Della Maddalena and Mounir Lazzez, while losing all six rounds in those two decisions. Working in Loosa’s favor, McKee has struggled to defend takedowns and is terrible off his back, and also eats a ton of significant strikes himself. So if Loosa can find some wrestling success, while also putting up a big striking total, he should be able to score well even in a decision win. The odds imply Loosa has a 61% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
McKee will be remembered by most as the guy that scored zero points in his 2020 UFC debut against Khamzat Chimaev and then got styled on by Alex Morono for three rounds. However, those were obviously tough matchups and McKee only moved up from 155 lb to 170 lb one fight before facing Chimaev on short notice. You couldn’t possibly ask for a tougher debut and the UFC did him no favors in his second outing, before quickly releasing him. He’s had to work his way back through Cage Warriors, where he’s coming off back-to-back wins for the Welterweight belt. While this won’t be a home game for McKee, the Irish fighter also won’t have to travel far and should have a decent amount of crowd support behind him as he tries to prove to the UFC that they cut him too soon the last time. We expect to see an inspired performance out of him and he’s shown the ability to put up big striking totals and land late finishes. He has a 100% finishing rate and if he wins this fight he should score well. At his cheap price tag, it’s tougher to see him pulling off the upset and getting left out of winning lineups and whoever wins this match should score well in what projects to be the highest paced fight on the card. The odds imply McKee has a 39% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Taylor Lapilus
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Lapilus had been scheduled to Muin Gafurov here, but Gafurov dropped out in addition to another fighter on the card and UFC musical chairs resulted in Lapilus being booked against Loughran instead on Tuesday.
This will be Lapilus’ second stint in the UFC, after he went 3-1 with the organization from 2015 to 2016, but then wasn’t re-signed despite his success. He won a decision in his 2015 UFC debut, and then landed a second round TKO, before losing a decision in his third fight. He bounced back with a decision win in 2016, but then left the UFC and tried his hand at boxing for one fight, where he won a 2017 decision. He returned to MMA after that and has spent the last six years on the regional scene working his way back to the big show. They actually decided to bring him back for last year’s Paris card, but he was forced to withdraw due to hand injury and now hasn’t competed in 17 months since winning the vacant Ares FC Bantamweight belt in April 2022. Lapilus also notably knocked out UFC fighter Nate Maness back in 2019, which is the only time Maness has ever been knocked out. None of Lapilus’ three UFC wins aged well, so it’s worth pointing out the context. His first win was against Rocky Lee, who had three pro fights at the time, was making his UFC debut, got cut following the loss, and has since gone 1-5. Then Lapilus defeated Yuta Sasaki, who finished 4-5 in the UFC and dropped down to Flyweight after the loss to Lapilus. Finally, Lapilus defeated Leandro Issa, who went 2-2 in the UFC and was cut following the loss to Lapilus. And Lapilus’ most recent win with Ares came against an opponent who hadn’t competed in five years following a PED suspension.
Now 18-3 as a pro, Lapilus has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and eight decision victories. All six of his submission wins occurred in his first nine pro fights, from 2012 to 2014, while three of his four knockouts victories occurred in his last seven matches. However, two of his last three and four of his last six fights ended with the judges. He’s never been finished and all three of his losses went the distance. Lapilus started his career at 145 lb, but dropped down to 135 lb following his 2015 UFC debut.
Overall, Lapilus is a French striker who will be making his return to the UFC in front of his home crowd. Lapilus has good quickness and movement, but doesn’t offer much in the way of power or in terms of wrestling, and also hasn’t submitted anybody since 2014. He has shown the ability to quickly return to his feet when he’s been taken down along the cage, but has looked pretty helpless off his back out in space. In his four UFC fights, Lapilus landed two of his five takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 6 of their 32 attempts (81.3% defense). Lapilus previously trained at the MMA Factory in Paris but has since moved to a new gym, Cross Fight Paris.
Caolan Loughran
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Loughran had been set to face UFC newcomer Yanis Ghemmouri, but after an early week shake up he’ll face UFC retread Taylor Lapilus instead.
Making his UFC debut with an undefeated record, Loughran recently won the Cage Warriors vacant Bantamweight belt with a R2 TKO in a wild brawl. Amazingly, that was Loughran’s fourth straight fight to end in a R2 TKO win and he’s been the picture of consistency since turning pro in 2019. His previous three second round finishes all resulted from relentless ground and pound, but Loughran showed in that last fight that he can throw down on the feet as well.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Loughran has five wins by TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. The first three wins of his career all ended in round one, with two of those coming by submission. He then saw the judges for the first and only time in 2021, before rattling off four straight second round TKOs. The only knock on his record is the level of competition he had been facing early in his career, with his first two pro opponents entering with flatlined records of 0-31 and 0-39 opponents. His next three opponents entered with records of just 3-5, 0-0, and 0-1, before he finally started facing opponents with a pulse in his last three matches.
Overall, Loughran is a tree stump of a man but fights with unabashed confidence as he stands in front of his opponents almost completely flatfooted and waits to unload flurries of strikes and takedowns. He’s been extremely effective with his takedown attempts, control, and ground pound to this point on the regional scene, and will also look for submissions. He does a great job of utilizing his stocky frame to pin opponents down once he takes full mount and knows how to force a stoppage as he unloads with vicious ground and pound. One adjustment he’ll have to eventually make is to his movement, as you can’t just stand there on the center line against high-level strikers and expect to survive. However, he’s made it work for him thus far and his wrestling threat combined with his striking makes him a tough opponent to deal with.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are listed at 5’6”, but Lapilus will have a 5” reach advantage.
Lapilus is the longer fighter with far more experience, but Loughran has a massive wrestling advantage and has also been the more active fighter lately, as he’s competed three times since Lapilus last fought. We’re very curious to see if Loughran continues to just stand his ground with little to no lateral movement or if that’s something he’ll eventually change. If he remains as stationary as in past fights, it’s possible that Lapilus can simply rely on his reach and quickness to pick Loughran apart from the outside, but Lapilus’ margin for error in this matchup is pretty thin, as Loughran will just be waiting to time takedowns. He’s been incredibly efficient with his attempts and once he gets on top he’s got really heavy top pressure. Lapilus has done a good job of posting back up along the fence when he gets taken down, but if Loughran can get him down out in space we don’t see Lapilus escaping. And Lapilus lacks the power to really be afraid of him knocking you out unless he lands another perfect body shot like his last two finishes, but those seemed somewhat flukey. Lapilus may have a decent start in this fight, but we like Loughran’s chances of outwrestling his way to victory and this he has a good shot of handing Lapilus the first early loss of his career with another mid round finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Loughran’s ML” at +142.
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DFS Implications:
DraftKings had not released pricing for Lapilus before the opponent change, so he is priced correctly despite the early week chaos. Lapilus is making his return to the UFC after seven years away. He went 3-1 in his first stint with the organization, averaging 72 DraftKings points in his two decision wins, while scoring 104 points in a second round TKO win. He doesn’t offer much in terms of wrestling and is basically a one-dimensional striker who only averages 3.77 SSL/min. That leaves him reliant on landing knockouts to score well, and he only has four KO/TKO wins in 21 pro fights. Now he’s facing an undefeated UFC newcomer who will be looking to take Lapilus down, so this doesn’t look like a great spot for him to land a knockout. However, he will be fighting in front of his home crowd and this matchup mashup was put together on just a few day’s notice after Lapilus’ original opponent dropped out. That adds some inherent volatility, but we’re still not very excited about playing Lapilus in this spot. The odds imply Lapilus has a 61% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Loughran was originally scheduled to fight Yanis Ghemmouri as a -300 favorite when DraftKings released pricing, resulting in Loughran being priced at $9,300. However, after two fighters dropped out on this card, the UFC opted to split up Loughran and Ghemmouri to save the other two fights. Loughran is now a slight underdog, but still priced as a massive favorite. That’s actually incredibly useful on this small slate where it will be much tougher to create viable unique lineups. Far less of the field will be willing to pay $9,300 for an underdog, regardless of the upside. And oh boy does Loughran offer upside. He’s shown the ability to chain takedowns together, dominate opponents on the mat, and put up big striking totals. Seven of his eight career wins have come in the first two rounds and if he can get his wrestling going here he has the potential to lead the slate in scoring. However, this will also be a step up in competition for him as he makes his UFC debut in enemy territory, so it’s best to treat this as a high-upside, but volatile spot for him. The odds imply Loughran has a 39% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Morgan Charriere
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut in front of his home French crowd, Charriere has won three straight fights and is coming off back-to-back TKO wins. He was very tentative in his recent July R3 TKO, but if you listen to him talk about it he said that he was trying to find a finish while making sure not to take any damage so that he would be able to turn around and fight on this card just six weeks later, which he was successful in doing. That win came against the gatekeeper to the UFC in Diego Silva, who also helped propel Muin Gafurov, Dan Argueta, and Jay Perrin into the organization. Prior to that, Charriere won via post R1 doctor stoppage TKO, after fighting to three straight split decisions (1-2). Amazingly, Charriere’s last seven decisions were all split/majority (2-4-1). His last four losses all ended in split decisions, with the last three of those coming in five-round Cage Warriors title fights.
Now 18-9-1 as a pro, Charriere has 10 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and five decision victories. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2015 R1 submission in his fourth pro fights, but he’s gone just 5-8-1 with the judges. All three of his submission wins occurred in under a round and a half, with two of those coming in the first half of round one. While he has five first round knockout wins, five of his last knockouts occurred in the later rounds, with four of those ending in the third round. Three of his last five fights went the distance, as did six of his last 10.
Overall, Charriere has more fights (28) than years around the sun (27), after turning pro when he was just 19 years old. He’s pretty well rounded and will mix in a combination of striking and wrestling, although hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018. He has the ability to put up big takedown numbers at times, but doesn’t necessarily rely on that to win fights. He’s also a decent striker and throws good leg kicks, but at times will get overly patient, resulting in close fights that more often than not have not gone his way in split decisions. He didn’t blow us away anywhere, but he’s solid everywhere. It seems like he kind of mirrors his opponents, and if they want to brawl he’ll brawl, or if they want to wrestle he’ll wrestle. However, that also means when he gets a more passive opponent we end up with slower paced fights. If he can become the one dictating the action, he’ll be an interesting prospect with plenty of time to grow.
Manolo Zecchini
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a pair of knockout wins on the Italian regional scene, Zecchini is just 4-2 in his last six fights, despite the fact he’s been facing bus drivers and used cell phone salesmen. His last opponent has now gone 2-4 in his last six fights and lost two straight before he fought Zecchini. Just before that, Zecchini knocked out a 12-12-1 opponent who has now gone 1-4 in his last five matches. Zecchini’s third most recent win came against an opponent who’s now lost four straight fights, so you get the idea. Six of Zecchini’s last seven fights ended in the first two rounds, while he got absolutely dominated on the ground in his last decision win, which one judge scored 30-26 against him. Zecchini knocked out his last opponent with a flying knee that required his opponent to be carried off on a stretcher, which is likely the only reason Zecchini ended up on the UFC’s radar.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Zecchini has eight wins by KO/TKO, one submission, one decision, and one verbal tap out victory. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss.
Overall, Zecchini is a low-level Italian striker who has never faced any legitimate competition. He offers nothing in terms of wrestling, is an unimpressive striker, and it’s unclear why the UFC is bringing him on other than they were running out of warm bodies to fill this card. He did spend some time training at Jackson Wink earlier this year, after he said he googled where Jon Jones trains and went there because he's a fan of Jones. Zecchini is still just 26 years old so he should be making improvements with the help of a solid team like Jackson Wink, but his starting point was so low that we don’t have very high expectations for him. We’d be shocked if this guy made it to a second UFC contract.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8”, but Charriere will have a 1” reach advantage.
It’s pretty obvious what’s going on here. The UFC is teeing up a gimme matchup for the young French prospect in Charriere to dominate in his UFC debut in front of his home crowd. Outside of Charriere tripping and falling into a hail mary flying knee, we don’t see a world where Zecchini wins this fight or is even competitive. We’ve seen Zecchini get absolutely dominated on the mat, and Charriere has the ability to wrestle and put up big takedown numbers when he wants to. Charriere will have Zecchini outgunned everywhere and it’s just a matter of whether or not Zecchini can survive to see a decision or if Charriere knocks him out first. We could see that going either way, but if Charriere really pushes for it, he should be able to get Zecchini out of there early, and we’ll say Charriere wins by TKO, most likely in the later rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Morgan Charriere R2 or R3 KO” at +440.
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DFS Implications:
Charriere is a fighter who has the potential to be frustrating at times, as his pace and activity fluctuate a good amount. However, when he’s on he has the potential to land a good amount of striking volume, while also racking up takedowns and control time. The UFC has set him up to succeed in front of his home crowd in his debut as they pulled a low-level opponent off of the Italian regional scene to face him. We’ve seen Zecchini get absolutely dominated on the mat and Charriere has a good chance of putting up a big takedown total and also finishing the fight with a TKO. That leaves him with a high scoring ceiling and a good shot at ending up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Charriere has a 74% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Zecchini is a slot-filler who snuck on this card amongst a sea of newcomers, but doesn’t actually have any business being in the UFC. He’s a one-dimensional striker who’s been scraping by against low-level opponents and the only reason we can see for why he would have been on the UFC’s radar in the first place is that he’s coming off a highlight reel flying knee knockout, where his opponent was carried out of the cage on a stretcher. While that may look good on a YouTube clip, Zecchini’s career as a whole has been unimpressive and he’ll need another hail mary knockout finish here to pull off the upset and score well. We have no interest in playing him in DFS and he’s appropriately named after a piece of produce because he’s about to get diced up in this matchup. The odds imply Zecchini has a 26% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
William Gomis
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Gomis came into the week expecting to fight Lucas Almeida here, but Almeida dropped out as well as another fighter on the card and the UFC was forced to play musical chairs with the matchups as they consolidated three fights into two.
Entering this matchup on a 10-fight winning streak, Gomis won a pair of split/majority decisions in his first two UFC matches, after six of his previous eight wins ended early. The first of those wins came against a fellow debuting fighter in Jarno Errens on the last Paris card, where Gomis relied on his wrestling to win a low-volume decision with three takedowns landed and eight minutes of control time. However, it was Gomis that got taken down and controlled in his last fight, as Francis Marshall landed two takedowns with four minutes of control time. Gomis never attempted any takedowns of his own, but led in significant strikes 27-15 to squeak out a low-volume split-decision win.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Gomis has six wins by knockout, one by submission, and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2016 R2 heel hook in his fourth pro fight, with his lone decision loss coming in his 2016 pro debut. That early loss coincidentally came against Morgan Charriere, who will be making his UFC debut this weekend. While 8 of Gomis’ 14 pro fights ended early, only two of his matches were stopped in round one (2-0), while five ended in round two (4-1), and one ended in a third round TKO victory.
Overall, Gomis is a well rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and mat, although we did nearly see him get submitted on the ground at the end of his last fight. He’s got good movement and speed, making him a tough guy to hit, and he looks pretty strong in the clinch. He’s still just 26 years old and should be improving between every fight. In his two UFC fights, he landed three of his five takedown attempts (60% accuracy), while his opponents got him down twice on seven attempts (71.4% defense). Gomis trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and will be fighting in front of his home crowd.
Yanis Ghemmouri
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Ghemmouri had originally been scheduled to face another UFC newcomer in Caolan Loughran, but the UFC scrapped that matchup and instead paired Ghemmouri up with Gomis and Loughran with Lapilus. Not only does Ghemmouri have to deal with the pressure of making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd, any gameplanning he did goes out the window as he just found out about this new matchup on Tuesday, and will now face an opponent with two UFC fights under his belt instead of a fellow debuting fighter. Coming into the UFC on a nine fight winning streak, Ghemmouri has landed back-to-back second round knockouts, after his previous two wins both ended in split decisions. His last few fights were all with Brave CF, after he started out on the French regional scene.
Now 12-1 as a pro, Ghemmouri has three wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decision victories. His only career loss was a 2015 R1 submission in his fourth pro fight. He’s faced a lot of questionable competition and only one of his first eight wins came against an opponent with a winning record, and that opponent is now 3-4. Ghemmouri has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb in the past, but his last fight was at 145 lb. He had been preparing to fight at 135 lb for his UFC debut until the opponent change on Tuesday resulted in him being put in a 145 lb fight instead.
Overall, Ghemmouri is a former French K-1 champion and has a background in Muay Thai and kickboxing. While he will mix in occasional takedowns and has four submission wins on his record, he hasn’t looked very dangerous on the mat and is often content with simply laying on his opponents. He’s very stationary and throws a lot of leg kicks but is not a very busy striker. He’s generally looking to land one shot at a time, and is content with taking part in slower paced fights. He trains with UFC fighter Fares Ziam, and it definitely shows, as they both have very patient styles. Ghemmouri was actually in Ziam’s corner for his last UFC fight, which was actually when Ghemmouri found out he was getting the call up.
Fight Prediction:
Gomis will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Of the four fighters who had their matchups changed on Tuesday, Ghemmouri probably got the shortest end of the stick. He had been preparing to fight at 135 lb against a fellow newcomer, but instead will be competing up at 145 lb against an opponent who already has two UFC wins. Considering that Ghemmouri’s background is in striking, it would make sense for Gomis to come in looking to wrestle, which outside of his last match is generally part of his game plan anyways. Considering Gomis’ size advantage, we expect him to find success in the grappling exchanges. At that point it will just become a matter of whether or not Gomis can finish Ghemmouri on the ground. Gomis only has one career submission win, although a ground and pound stoppage is also popular. However, based on Ghemmouri’s slower pace and how Gomis looked in his first two fights, it’s more likely that this ends in another Gomis decision victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Gomis’ ML” at -205.
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DFS Implications:
Gomis had been scheduled to face Lucas Almeida as a -160 favorite priced at $8,400 on DraftKings, and then Almeida dropped out after pricing was already locked in. Gomis is now a -300 favorite in this new matchup and clearly underpriced, as we should be priced around 9K given his new odds. That will drive his ownership up from where it would otherwise be, although the fact that he only scored 42 DraftKings points in his recent decision win should help to keep his ownership from getting completely out of control. He also totalled just 80 points in a decision win in his UFC debut, so he’s yet to demonstrate any sort of ceiling at the UFC level. This next matchup is interesting because Ghemmouri had been planning on making his debut against Caolan Loughran at 135 lb up until Tuesday when the UFC was forced to rearrange some things after two fighters dropped out. Ghemmouri was then informed he would instead be facing Gomis up at 145 lb. While Ghemmouri generally makes for slower paced, low-volume fights that generally won’t score as well in DFS with a finish, we could see him struggle with the size of Gomis in the grappling exchanges. We don’t know how either of these two will adjust on the fly to the late opponent changes, or how Ghemmouri will handle the bright lights of making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd, so we have several unknowns in play. We’re expecting that Gomis will be able to find some grappling success, which raises his DraftKings floor but still leaves him entirely reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel. Whether or not he can find his first UFC finish is tougher to predict, but he’ll need to dominate this fight on the ground to score well in a decision on DraftKings. While that’s certainly in play, so is a lower-volume, low-scoring decision win, leaving us with a wider range of scoring outcomes. The odds imply Gomis has a 65% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Ghemmouri is in a tough spot to succeed as he gets a late opponent change and went from facing a 135 lb opponent to a 145 lb opponent with only a few days to adjust. He’s primarily a striker and his slower paced style of fighting doesn’t look especially conducive to scoring well in DFS. Even when he lands takedowns, he’s been pretty much content with just laying on his opponents. That will leave him reliant on landing finishes to score well and we haven’t been especially impressed by him. He does land decent leg kicks, so perhaps he can compromise opponents to the point of being able to put them away later in flights, but most of his career has been spent facing a low-level of competition and we’re skeptical about his chances in the UFC. The only two things he has going for him here are his low salary and low ownership, and if he does pull off the upset he’ll be a solid leverage play against the popular Gomis, which is especially important on this smaller slate. The odds imply Ghemmouri has a 35% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Volkan Oezdemir
13th UFC Fight (6-6)Oezdemir had originally been scheduled to fight Azamat Murzakanov here, but Murzakanov dropped out and Guskov was announced as the replacement 26 days out.
Coming off a decision loss to Nikita Krylov, Oezdemir has dropped three of his last four fights, and is just 3-6 in his last nine matches. All nine of those fights made it to the second round, with six seeing round three, and five going the distance. His only win since 2019 was against Paul Craig, who has since dropped down from 205 lb to 185 lb. In fairness to Oezdemir, his previous two losses were against guys at the top of the division in Jiri Prochazka and Magomed Ankalaev. Oezdemir’s last three and four of his last five fights went the distance, with the one exception being a 2020 R2 KO loss to Prochazka. Oezdemir came out ultra aggressively in his last fight and landed some good shots early, but wasn’t able to get Krylov out of there. Krylov then relied on his wrestling in the later rounds to grind out a decision win.
Now 18-7 as a pro, Oezdemir has 12 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. Eleven of his 12 knockout wins occurred in the first round with the other ending in round two. His lone submission victory all ended in round one. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice more, and has three decision losses. He was nearly submitted a third time by Daniel Cormier in a 2018 title fight, but Oezdemir was saved by the bell at the end of round one and later got finished with ground and pound in round two instead. Three of those four early losses came in the second round, with the other ending in round three. Three of the eight decisions he’s been to have been split (2-1).
Overall, Oezdemir is a powerful striker who throws violent leg kicks. His background is in kickboxing and he doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling, with just four takedowns landed in his 12-fight UFC career. However, he does have a solid 80% takedown defense and has only been taken down 13 times on 65 attempts by his opponents. However, in Oezdemir’s last fight, Nikita Krylov took him down seven times on 20 attempts with over nine minutes of control time. Oezdemir averages 4.53 SSL/min and 3.97 SSA/min, and has never landed more than 82 significant strikes in a UFC fight, which was in his 2017 UFC debut. Similarly, he’s never absorbed more than 76 significant strikes in a UFC fight, which also occurred in his debut.
Bogdan Guskov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following four straight first round knockout wins, Guskov has won 12 of his last 13 fights, with all 13 of those bouts ending early. His last two wins both occurred in 30 seconds or less, while his two before that came late in the round. Prior to those four finishes, he got knocked out in the first round himself in a December 2020 match, which is his only loss since 2016.
Now 14-2 as a pro, Guskov has 12 wins by KO/TKO and two submission victories. Ten of his 12 knockouts came in round one, with the other two split between rounds two and three. His last six finishes all ended in knockouts, while his two submission wins occurred in back-to-back 2018 matches, with one ending in round one and the other early in round two. His only early loss was a 2020 R1 KO, while he lost the only decision he’s ever been to, which only lasted two rounds in his third pro fight. Only once has he seen the third round in his career, with that ending in a 2019 R3 TKO in the first half of the round. One thing to consider with Guskov is that he’s been facing a lot of suspect competition. None of his first seven opponents had winning records, with four of them making their pro debuts and another coming in 0-4. His last win came against a 20-10 journeyman, after defeating a 4-1 nobody just before that. So take his finishes with a massive grain of salt.
Overall, Guskov is decently well-rounded and will mix in occasional takedowns, but is generally looking to knock opponents out. His striking defense appears to be his biggest weakness, and he’ll hold his hands low at times, leaving his face exposed. While he’s got decent power, he doesn’t stand out as being an exceptional striker or grappler, but he has shown the ability to throw up submissions off his back and is a BJJ brown belt. He’s from Uzbekistan, but trains at GOR MMA in Moscow. This will be a big step up in competition for him, so it will be interesting to see how he handles that.
Fight Prediction:
Guskov will have a 1” height advantage and is three years younger than the 33-year-old Oezdemir.
Oezdemir has been far from impressive lately, but has been facing nothing but really tough competition. Guskov is basically in the opposite position, as he’s been quickly knocking everyone out, but has exclusively been facing a very low-level of competition. Both guys have a long history of landing first round knockouts, and there's a decent chance that one of them lands a kill shot in the opening five minutes. The only two fighters to ever knock Oezdemir out are a pair of former champions in Jiri Prochazka and Daniel Cormier. However, you can easily make the argument that Oezdemir is in the decline of his career and now hasn’t fought in almost 11 months. Oezdemir came out more aggressively in the first round of his last fight compared to his previous few matches, and if he does that again, he’ll have a good shot at capitalizing on the suspect striking defense of his debuting opponent. It’s hard to trust Oezdemir based on his recent track record, but we’re not sold on Guskov. He’s been knocking out a bunch of bums and took this fight on three and a half weeks’ notice. This fight carries some inherent volatility, as both guys have knockout power but come in with some red flags. However, it looks like the best opportunity for Oezdemir to land a knockout that he’s seen in quite some time and we’ll say Oezdemir notches his first R1 KO win since 2017.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -140.
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DFS Implications:
Oezdemir has been a boom or bust DFS commodity, averaging 123 DraftKings points in his three UFC finishes, but just 72 points in his three decision victories. The first 12 finishes of his pro career ended in the first round, while the last one ended in round two. That last finish was all the way back in 2019 and it’s been four years since he got anybody out of there early. However, he’s been facing top-shelf competition since then and will finally get an easier matchup here against a debuting opponent. It’s possible that Oezdemir is simply over the hill at this point, but if he was ever going to land another knockout this would be the time and he did show signs of life in the first round of his last fight. The chances of him scoring enough in a decision to be useful are slim to none, leaving him reliant on landing a knockout, but we don’t hate his chances of achieving that. The odds imply Oezdemir has a 63% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Guskov has landed four straight first round knockouts and comes into the UFC with a 100% finishing rate, but has exclusively been fighting a low-level of competition. That leaves a lot of uncertainty surrounding him, and the potential for him to be a complete fraud is squarely in play. He’s shown a suspect striking defense and will now be taking on a longtime UFC veteran with a history of landing first round knockouts. That leaves Guskov with a zero point floor, but a high theoretical ceiling if his finishing abilities can translate to the next level. We’re not sold that they can, but we could easily be wrong and he definitely has the power to knock opponents out, in addition to some submission skills. It’s not like Oezdemir has been looking great lately, so we can’t completely dismiss the idea that Guskov keeps his finishing streak alive here, but we’re definitely skeptical. The odds imply Guskov has a 37% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Benoit Saint Denis
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Continuing to build momentum, Saint Denis has finished three straight opponents in the first round and a half of fights, after losing a Bloodsport style decision in his 2021 UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. That fight should have been stopped by all accounts in the second round as Saint Denis was getting mauled by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, but the referee had other ideas and decided he’d prefer to see someone die that day. It was such a horribly officiated fight that the commission actually pulled the ref from his remaining duties on the card. That’s the only loss of Saint Denis’ career, and it took place at 170 lb. He then dropped down to 155 lb and submitted Niklas Stolze 92 seconds into the second round after nearly locking up a choke in the closing seconds of round one. He then got to find in front of his home Paris crowd and looked to put on a show as he knocked out a short notice debuting opponent in Gabriel Miranda 16 seconds into round two after also nearly finishing him late in round one. After finishing two low-level opponents, Saint Denis recently faced a tougher test in Ismael Bonfim and passed with flying colors as he locked up a submission late in the first round. In fairness, all three of Bonfim’s previous career losses also ended in submissions so that has been a weakness for him. Prior to joining the UFC, Saint Denis had never lost a fight or required the judges, and had only even seen the third round once.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Saint Denis has two wins by TKO and nine submission victories. Both of his TKO wins ended in round two, while he has six first round submissions, two in round two, and one in round three. Four of his last six early wins ended in round two, with the other two ending in round one. He’s never been finished himself, with his only loss coming in a decision in his 2021 UFC debut. Saint Denis has competed anywhere from 145 lb to 185 lb, but was primarily fighting at 165 lb and 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb after his UFC debut at 170 lb.
Overall, Saint Denis is primarily a grappler and looks to get opponents to the mat early and often, where he’ll aggressively hunt for submissions. He started training in Judo as a kid, where he eventually earned his black belt, and was also in the French Special Forces. In addition to his Judo background, he’s a BJJ brown belt. He showed insane toughness and durability in his UFC debut, but his striking defense looks poor and relying on your toughness to survive is not the best long term solution. In his four UFC fights, Saint Denis has landed 8 takedowns on 27 attempts (29.6% accuracy), while his opponents have only gotten him down once on seven attempts (85.7% defense).
Thiago Moises
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Moises is coming off a pair of submission wins in two very advantageous matchups. He most recently took on a short notice debuting opponent in Melquizael Costa, who was fighting up a weight class, after previously finishing the highly submittable Christos Giagos. Neither of those two put up much resistance and Moises was easily able to get them each out of there. However, leading up to those two wins Moises got finished himself in back-to-back fights in much, much tougher spots. The first of those losses came in a fourth round submission against Islam Makhachev, which Moises followed up with a first round TKO loss to a gigantic Joel Alvarez. Those are the only two times Moises has ever been finished. Prior to those losses, Moises won three straight fights with a pair of decisions over Bobby Green and Bobby Green, after submitting Michael Johnson in the second round. Five of Moises’ first six UFC fights went the distance (3-2), before his last four all ended early. His two decision losses were against really tough opponents in Beneil Dariush and Damir Ismagulov.
Now 17-6 as a pro, Moises has three wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted another time, and has four decision losses. After his first seven UFC fights all saw the second round, with six making it to round three and five going the distance, two of Moises’ last three matches ended in round one, with the other being stopped in round two. Moises finished his first two pro opponents in the first round back in 2012, but 18 of his last 21 fights have made it past round one. All three of his knockouts came before he joined the UFC, with two ending in round one and one in round five. Five of his last six submission wins ended in round two, while he also has two first round submission victories and another in round three.
Overall, Moises is a dangerous BJJ black belt and an underrated striker. He’s faced a ton of really high-level opponents, but got a step down in competition recently and it showed in the results. Despite his grappling background, he’s been content with keeping fights standing at times, which was most evident against Alexander Hernandez, but Moises did get back to his grappling more recently. To his credit, his striking has definitely improved over his time in the UFC, but he’s still much more dangerous on the mat. Between his 10 UFC fights and DWCS Brazil appearance, Moises landed 12 of his 29 takedown attempts (41.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 28 attempts (60.7% defense). Moises trains at American Top Team with a ton of other high-level UFC fighters and his main training partner is Grant Dawson.
Fight Prediction:
Saint Denis will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two are solid grapplers, but Moises is the more technical striker and has seven more years of pro MMA experience, despite only being a year older than the 27-year-old Saint Denis. Moises is also a BJJ black belt, while Saint Denis is still a brown belt. You can’t question Saint Denis’ toughness and he put on an inspired performance the last time he fought in front of his home paris crowd, but that was also a teed up murder spot and this will be a much tougher test. Four of the five UFC opponents who tried to take Moises down were successful, although the only fighter who tried to get him down in his last five fights was Islam Makhachev, who landed three of his six attempts. Moises was also more content with going for guillotines as opponents tried to take him down earlier in his UFC career, which won’t help his takedown defense numbers any. Now he’s training with Grant Dawson on a daily basis, so you have to imagine his defensive wrestling has improved. He’s also always a threat to throw up submissions off his back, so taking him down is a risky endeavor. We did see Joel Alvarez simply overwhelm Moises with pressure and hand him the only KO/TKO loss of his career, and Saint Denis is certainly aggressive, but in a more technical striking battle we like Moises’ chances, as Saint Denis has been far too hittable. Even in two of his last three wins he finished slightly behind in significant strikes, after getting blown away in his UFC debut. We expect Moises to fight smart and try to weather the early storm from Saint Denis and then try to take over in the later rounds and either lock up a late submission or grind out a decision win. While this should be a close fight, Moises is just a little more technical everywhere and we like his chances of pulling off the upset in enemy territory, despite Saint Denis being the Twitter betting darling this week.
Our favorite bet here is “Moises’ ML” at +136.
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DFS Implications:
Saint Denis has been smashing in DFS, averaging 119 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins after losing a South Park meme decision in his short notice UFC debut up a weight class. He scored a slate-breaking 136 points in a teed-up matchup on the last Paris card and will now be returning to the scene of the crime to perform in front of his home crowd once again. However, this matchup is night and day compared to his last one and Moises is a really tough and well-rounded opponent. The only fighter to ever submit Moises is the current champion in Islam Makhachev and despite Saint Denis’ 100% finishing rate in his wins, we’d be surprised to see him get a finish here. That likely leaves him reliant on filling up the stat sheet to score well in a decision and Moises only averages 3.90 SSA/min. We expect Saint Denis to be popular at his reasonable price tag and on his current streak of finishes, so this looks like a good leverage spot to be under the field. The odds imply Saint Denis has a 59% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Moises is coming off two straight submission wins that were good for DraftKings totals of 113 and 102 points respectively. However, both of those were in very favorable matchups and Moises only topped 70 DraftKings once in his previous eight UFC fights, which was all the way back in 2019 in a wrestling-heavy decision win over Kurt Holobaugh that was good for 100 points in Moises’ second UFC fight. Moises’ two decision wins since then only scored 51 and 60 DraftKings points, so he has a pretty shaky floor. However, Saint Denis averages 6.14 SSA/min and has shown a very poor 41% striking defense, so this does look like a pace up spot for Moises. Saint Denis is typically looking to grapple, which could provide Moises with opportunities to look for submission, but could also limit his striking upside. Both guys are dangerous submission threats, so it will be interesting to see how those grappling exchanges go, or if we end up getting more striking than expected. So there are a lot of ways this fight could go and Moises has a fairly wide range of potential scoring outcomes. Even at his cheaper salary, a win alone does not guarantee him a spot in the optimal lineup, but he also doesn’t need to put up a huge score to be useful. The odds imply Moises has a 41% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Manon Fiorot
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Still undefeated in the UFC, Fiorot has won three straight decisions after landing a pair of second round TKOs in her first two UFC bouts. Those two finishes came against a pair of debuting opponents, in a terrible Victoria Leonardo, and an undersized Tabatha Ricci who was fighting up a weight class. Fiorot then outpointed a series of higher-level and extremely durable opponents in Mayra Bueno Silva, Jennifer Maia, and most recently Katlyn Chookagian. In those three decision wins, Fiorot unanimously won eight of the nine rounds on the scorecards, with the one exception being the first round against Chookagian. Fiorot came back to win each of the later rounds in that fight, and after the match revealed that she had suffered a knee injury in the fight that would require surgery. That fight had originally been scheduled to take place on the last Paris card, in front of Fiorot’s home crowd, but then got pushed back a month. So Fiorot has been waiting to fight in Paris for more than a year now since originally being told it was going to happen.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Fiorot has six wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. She’s won 10 straight fights since losing a split decision in her 2018 pro debut. Most of her TKOs have come in the later rounds, with three in round two and two in round three, while she’s finished just one opponent in the first round. While she only turned pro in 2018, Fiorot had extensive amateur experience as she won the 2017 IMMAF World Championships. She was notably competing at 135 lb at that time, before dropping down to 125 lb for her second pro fight, back in 2019.
Overall, Fiorot’s karate style makes her a tough fighter to deal with as she does a masterful job of controlling distance with her kicks. She also utilizes a destructive check right hook as she backs out of striking range against her opponents. Once she has opponents hurt, she’ll unload with explosive combinations of punches to close out fights. She’s a karate black belt, but just a BJJ purple belt. She averages an impressive 6.58 SSL/min and just 3.14 SSA/min, and has easily outlanded all of her UFC opponents. She’ll also mix in occasional takedown attempts and has landed 7 takedowns on 14 attempts (50% accuracy) in her five UFC fights, with at least one in each match. On the other side of things, she’s only been taken down once herself on six opponent attempts (83% defense). We’ve seen some limitations to her finishing ability lately as she’s climbed the Flyweight rankings, but in fairness to Fiorot, she’s been facing some of the most durable opponents around.
Rose Namajunas
14th UFC Fight (9-4)Namajunas is 16 months removed from losing the Strawweight belt in a bizarrely low-volume split decision loss to Carla Esparza, that will likely go down as the worst fight in UFC history. After 25 minutes of inaction, Namajunas finished ahead 37-30 in significant strikes and 38-30 in total strikes, while Esparza led in takedowns 2-1 and in control time 22 seconds to 10. All future staring contests will be judged on a scale of one to Namajunas/Esparza. Judges deservingly catch a lot of flack, but that was truly one of the hardest fights to judge based on how little happened. In a recent interview, Namajunas talked about how she considered retiring after that fight and just didn’t feel aggressive and didn’t want to hurt anybody at the time. Prior to that loss, Namajunas won back-to-back fights against Zhang Weili, with a R1 head kick KO followed by a close split decision. Just before that, Namajunas won a three-round split decision over Jessica Andrade, and amazingly, three of Namajunas’ last four fights ended in split decisions (2-1). That decision win over Andrade is Namajunas’ only three-round fight in her last seven outings, with her other six most recent fights being for the Strawweight belt. After originally winning the Strawweight belt against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a November 2017 R1 KO, Namajunas then defended the belt in a five-round decision in the immediate rematch against Jedrzejczyk in April 2018. Following the pair of wins over Jedrzejczyk, Namajunas lost the belt to Andrade in a violent R2 slam knockout, before avenging the loss in a three-round decision over Andrade in her next fight—although that notably came after Andrade had already lost the belt to Weili. Namajunas then won the belt back against Weili and defended it, before losing it to Esparza.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Namajunas has two R1 KO/TKO wins, five submissions, and four decision victories. Two of those five submissions came in round one, one ended in round two, another in round three, and one in round five. Her last two finishes both ended in first round knockouts and she hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017. She’s been knocked out once (2019 R2 KO by slam against Andrade), submitted once (2014 R3 RNC against Esparza), and has three decision losses. Her last three and four of last five decisions have been split (2-2). After spending her entire career to this point at 115 lb, Namajunas will be moving up to 125 lb for the first time.
Overall, Namajunas is very quick with great movement and footwork and trains in Colorado with Trevor Wittman and Pat Barry. She holds black belts in Taekwondo and Karate, and a BJJ brown belt and is dangerous both on the feet and the mat. Larger 30 ft cages, like the one that will be used in this next fight, seem to benefit her style as she likes to float away from contact in open space as she controls the distance. In her 13 UFC fights, she’s landed 19 of her 33 takedown attempts (57.6% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in nine of those fights. On the other side of things, her opponents got her down on 16 of their 40 attempts (60% defense). Only once in her UFC career has she landed more than two takedowns in a fight, which was when she took Paige VanZant down eight times in a 2015 five-round match. Her last five opponents to attempt a takedown against her all landed at least one of their attempts. We typically don’t see a ton of striking volume in her matches, and Namajunas only averages 3.66 SSL/min and 3.50 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Fiorot will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters have a 65” reach. Namajunas is two years younger than the 33-year-old Fiorot.
Both of these women are karate black belts with good footwork and a strong kicking game. Namajunas is the better grappler, while Fiorot is the larger fighter. Considering that size advantage combined with Fiorot’s 83% takedown defense, it will be interesting to see how much success Namajunas can have in getting the fight to the mat. If it stays standing, Fiorot is the busier striker and should be able to outland her way to a decision win, especially with the home crowd behind her. Both of these women are very durable, and we’d be surprised if either of them knocked the other out. If it does end early, a Namajunas submissions win would likely be the reason why, but we expect it to go the distance and we’ll take Fiorot to win by decision. Just keep in mind, with Namajunas moving up a weight class and Fiorot coming off knee surgery, there is some built in volatility in this matchup.
Our favorite bet here is “Fiorot/Namajunas FGTD” at -175.
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DFS Implications:
Fiorot is a high-volume striker, who averages an impressive 6.58 SSL/min, while absorbing just 3.14/min, and she’s also landed at least one takedown in all five of her UFC fights. However, after landing a pair of second round TKOs in her first two UFC fights that were good for 120 and 100 DraftKings respectively, she’s now won three straight decisions, averaging 82 DraftKings points in those wins and scoring progressively worse in each of them as her level of competition has risen. Her best attribute for DFS has been her ability to finish fights with flurries of punches after she gets her opponents hurt. However, we don’t get to see that in fights where she never has her opponents hurt, which has been the case in her last three matches. Whether she’s hit a wall in terms of her finishing ability at the highest level or just faced three especially durable opponents remains to be seen, but she’s given us no indication that she can return value at her expensive price tag without a finish. Working against her, Namajunas has only been knocked out once in her career, which is when Jessica Andrade slammed her on her head. Namajunas has great footwork and only averages 3.50 SSA/min, while the larger cage in this fight will also give both fighters more room to evade the other. That creates the potential for this to turn into a karate-style point fighting match, where they both rely heavily on their kicking games and the fight remains at distance. That would not be good for DFS. Namajunas is also a pretty dangerous grappler, which will make it riskier for Fiorot to look for takedowns and could result in Fiorot spending some time on her back if Namajunas takes her down. The one encouraging factor for Fiorot is that Namajunas is moving up to 125 lb for the first time in her career, and we don’t know how she’ll look at the new weight class. However, Fiorot is also coming off knee surgery so there’s some uncertainty on her side as well. That adds some volatility to this matchup, but ultimately Fiorot looks like an expensive KO or bust option in a tough matchup. The odds imply Fiorot has a 63% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Namajunas has averaged 97 DraftKings points in her nine UFC wins, but only scored 63 and 61 points in her two three-round decision wins. So even at her cheap salary she’ll likely need a finish to be useful, unless we get a slate where only 1-2 other underdogs win. While Namajunas has landed finishes in five of her nine UFC wins, she’s only finished one opponent since 2017 and is now moving up to 125 lb for the first time. Finishes should come tougher as she faces larger opponents, and while Namajunas throws sneaky head kicks and is a dangerous grappler, Fiorot has never been finished in her career. Fiorot also has a solid 83% takedown defense and only averages 3.14 SSA/min, while doing a good job of keeping her opponents at bay with her kicking game. After the stinker that Namajunas put up in her last outing, this should be a decent buy-low spot on her from an ownership perspective, but it looks like a tough spot for her. She’ll be going into enemy territory following a 16 month layoff and moving up a weight class against a larger opponent on a 10 fight winning streak who’s never been finished. None of that inspires much confidence, although it remains to be seen if Fiorot will look like the same fighter following knee surgery. The odds imply Namajunas has a 37% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Ciryl Gane
11th UFC Fight (8-2)Gane is six months removed from a first round submission loss to Jon Jones and has now lost two of his last three fights, with each of those defeats coming in title fights. Gane got out grappled in both of those matches, surprisingly by Francis Ngannou in the first of them. That first loss ended in a close decision that Gane gave away when he forfeited top position in the 5th round of a dead even fight to lean back for a leg lock. Gane won the first two rounds of that fight on the feet, but then got taken down by Ngannou four times in round three and four, leading up to the pivotal fifth round. Gane bounced back with a third round knockout win over Tai Tuivasa on the last Paris card, which put him right back in another title shot against Jon Jones, who was making his long awaited move up to Heavyweight. Jones was able to take Gane down a minute into that fight and then locked up a guillotine along the fence a minute later. Prior to the loss to Ngannou, Gane started his pro career 10-0, with wins in his first seven UFC matches, including a win over Derrick Lewis for the controversial Interim Heavyweight belt in an August 2021 R3 TKO.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Gane has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. He’s coming off the first early loss of his career in a round one submission against Jon Jones, with his one other defeat ending in a close five-round decision. He landed a first round submission of his own in his 2019 UFC debut, but his next eight fights all made it to round two, with seven seeing the third round, and four going the distance, including three five-round decisions (2-1). Three of his five early wins in the UFC ended in round three and he’s never in a rush to look for finishes.
This will be Gane’s 7th straight five-round fight in the UFC and all three of his pro fights prior to joining the organization were also scheduled to go five rounds. However, none of those three fights made it past round two as Gane finished two of those opponents in the first round and the other in round two. In his six UFC five-round fights, Gane has fought to three decisions (2-1), landed a pair of third round KO/TKO wins over Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa, and then most recently got submitted in round one by Jon Jones.
Overall, Gane is a high-level Muay Thai striker who averages 5.08 SSL/min and just 2.25 SSA/min. He’s very light on his feet and has great movement for a Heavyweight. He’ll also mix in occasional grappling, but in his 10 UFC fights, he’s only landed 6 of his 28 takedown attempts (21.4% accuracy). On the other side of things, he’s been taken down six times on 11 opponent attempts (45.4% defense), with Ngannou and Jones being the only fighters to get him down. Gane will also look for submissions in the mat and seems to be a fan of heel hooks, although considering that a heel hook attempt cost him a world title maybe he’ll be less enthusiastic to go for them in the future. Gane only turned pro in MMA in August 2018 after previously competing in Muay Thai from 2016-2018, so he’s still just five years into his MMA career. His one weakness lately has been his wrestling defense, so naturally the UFC paired him up with a wrestler in this upcoming matchup, after Gane just got submitted.
Serghei Spivac
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Spivac recently headlined for the first time in the UFC and proceeded to lock up submission over Derrick Lewis three minutes into the first round. Spivac relentlessly chain wrestled Lewis, taking him down six times in just over half a round before finishing things with an arm-triangle choke. While Spivac has impressively won six of his last seven fights, that’s his only big name win over that stretch. The other five wins came against Augusto Sakai (cut), Greg Hardy (cut), Alexey Oleynik (deceased?), Jared Vanderaa (cut), and Carlos Felipe (cut). The one other time Spivac really faced a step up in competition was when he took on Tom Aspinall on short notice and got knocked out in the first round. Spivac did have a win over Tai Tuivasa earlier in his UFC career, but Tuivasa is a one-dimensional brawler who was on the tail end of a three fight binger skid after losing to Blagoy Ivanov and Junior dos Santos just before Spivac. Spivac started just 1-2 in the UFC, with a 50 second R1 KO loss in his 2019 UFC debut against Walt Harris and a decision loss to Marcin Tybura in his third UFC fight. Two of Spivac’s three UFC losses occurred when he got knocked out before he could get fights to the ground, and the other was in a decision against a fellow Heavyweight wrestler.
Now 16-3 as a pro, Spivac has seven wins by KO/TKO, seven more by submission, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. Prior to joining the UFC, he landed nine straight finishes in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one. Since joining the UFC, seven of his 10 fights have ended early (5-2), with four ending in round one (2-2), and three ending in round two (3-0). While his last finish ended in a submission, his previous three ended in knockouts.
This will be the 5th five-round fight of Spivac’s career, but just his second in the UFC. All four of his previous fights that were scheduled to go five-rounds ended in first round wins, so he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.
Overall, Spivac is a Heavyweight grappler who does his best work from top position on the mat. He’s not a great striker on the feet and relies almost entirely on getting fights to the ground to win. He’s just 1-3 in UFC fights where he’s failed to land a takedown, with the one win coming against an aging grappler in Alexey Oleynik who also relies entirely on his grappling to win fights. On the other side of things, Spivac is 6-0 in UFC fights where he landed at least one takedown. In his 10 UFC fights, Spivac has landed 27 takedowns on 41 attempts (65.9% accuracy), with three or more takedowns landed in six of his seven wins, and six or more in three of those. Whoever has led in significant strikes has won all 10 of Spivac’s UFC fights.
Fight Prediction:
Gane will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Spivac is five years younger than the 33-year-old Gane.
This is a classic striker versus grappler battle and the winner will be determined by Spivac’s ability to get it to the mat and dominate from top position. If Gane can keep the fight standing, Spivac has no chance to win a striking battle., but that’s far easier said than done. Spivac has a really solid 65.9% takedown accuracy, while Gane has a poor 45.4% takedown defense. Those numbers obviously don’t bode well for Gane’s chances of keeping it standing. Spivac has lost three fights in his career. In two of those, he got knocked out quickly in the first round by power punchers, and the other time he lost a decision to a fellow wrestler. Gane isn’t really known for his power and definitely isn’t known for his wrestling, although does have a few submissions in his back pocket. So stylistically Spivac should have the advantage, but that’s obvious to anyone that’s watched both of their last few fights.
The factors that may be going more overlooked are that Gane has been facing much tougher competition than Spivac, this fight will be in the larger Octagon where Gane will have more room to evade takedowns, and Gane will have the home crowd behind him which could help with quicker standups/breakups or with the judges if it goes the distance. Gane also had his poor defensive wrestling exposed in two of his last three fights and you have to imagine he’s been focussing on improving it. Five of Spivac’s last six fights have been in the smaller cage at the Apex, with the one exception being his win over a terrible Greg Hardy, so we haven’t seen him forced to chased guys down in the larger Octagon much. The whole “Spivac wrestling good, Gane wrestling bad” conclusion that most people will immediately reach here makes you wonder why the books would set Spivac as an underdog, knowing that the field would be looking to bet him based on recent results. That screams trap line to us. The two fighters to beat Gane were freakishly huge and athletic world champions, in Francis Ngannou (6’4”, 83” reach) and Jon Jones (6’4”, 84” reach). Gane stands 6’4” with an 81” reach himself, but it’s hard to justs trike from the outside when you’re at a reach disadvantage. Not that Spivac is small and unathletic, but he’s certainly not as explosive or athletic as Jones or Ngannou and is “only” 6’3” with a 78” reach. Don’t overlook the significance that a 6” difference in reach makes, especially when you factor in the difference in speed and athleticism from Ngannou/Jones to Spivac.
Gane will have the speed and reach advantage in this matchup, in addition to the experience he can take away from those two losses, combined with the work he’s inevitably put to his wrestling. So we expect to see an improved version of him. It would make sense for him to come in with a very cautious game plan focussed on footwork and distance management. Three of Gane’s last six fights have gone the full 25 minutes, while Spivac has never been in a fight that lasted longer than three rounds, and has never finished anybody beyond round two. And if you go back and watch the last time Spivac saw a third round, he looked exhausted by the end of the third round against Alexey Oleynik. He also looked too tired to finish an exhausted Carlos Felipe in the third round of his second most recent decision win, despite Spivac having a dominant position on the mat. The one other time Spivac saw the third round in a UFC fight was against Tybura and Spivac lost that round with the fight on the line. That leads us to believe that Spivac will need a finish in the first two rounds to win this fight, and we’re not convinced he’ll even have the cardio to go five rounds unless this turns into a staring contest. And that’s why Gane is the favorite despite the tough stylistic matchup. We like Gane to fight smart, control the range, and turn up the pace after the second round once Spivac begins to slow down. While Gane could likely cruise to a decision win if he wanted to, we expect him to come in looking to prove a point in front of his home crowd and after his recent embarrassingly fast loss to Jones. We like Gane to knock Spivac out in the third or fourth round, and if history is any indicator it will come late in round three.
Our favorite bet here is “Gane R3 or R4 Win” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Gane has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins, and while he’s shown a solid floor, he failed to hit the century mark in any of his previous six five-round fights. His two five-round decision wins were good for 94 and 85 DraftKings points respectively, while his two third round knockouts returned totals of 99 and 89. He also scored just 39 points in his decision loss to Ngannou, which still would have only been good for 69 points had the decision gone his way. His patient approach to fighting makes it tougher for him to put up big scores and he’s only landed one takedown in his last five matches. Now he’s facing a wrestler who will be looking to take him down, control him, and beat him up on the mat. Any time Gane spends being controlled will further limit his upside and Spivac only averages 2.84 SSA/min in his career, with no opponent ever landing more than 59 significant strikes against him. The two times Spivac has been finished in his career both ended in first round knockouts, but Gane has only landed one first round knockout in his career, which came in his third pro fight, back in 2019 before he joined the UFC. The craziest fight that Gane has been part of was against Tai Tuivasa, when he headlined the last Paris card and knocked Tuivasa out late in the third round of a wild brawl. And yet, Gane only scored 99 DraftKings points in that win, although he fared better on FanDuel where he scored 128 points. Tuivasa averages 57% more SSA/min than Spivac (4.46 vs. 2.84) and we would expect Gane to score worse in this matchup with a similarly timed finish, unless he lands multiple knockdowns. At Gane’s high price tag there are multiple ways he wins this fight and gets left out of tournament lineups. That creates an interesting leverage opportunity to fade a high owned main event on this smaller slate where it will be significantly harder to create unique lineups. The odds imply Gane has a 60% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Spivac has been absolutely smashing lately, as scored 134, 136, and 114 DraftKings points in his last three fights. In his five UFC finishes, he averaged an insane 127 DraftKings points, scoring at least 114 points in all of those and 132 or more in three of them. While he’s a one-dimensional wrestler who has only shown the ability to finish fights on the ground, his ceiling is massive, and he’s won six of his last seven fights. Further sweetening the pot, he’s going against an opponent who has just a 45.4% takedown defense and who’s lost two of his last three fights on the mat. And on top of all that, Spivac can be had as a cheap underdog (all you have to do is pay for shipping and handling). This too-good-to-be-true spot has all the makings of a trap and we expect a massive chunk of the field to fall right in it. Despite this appearing to be a great stylistic matchup for Spivac, Gane has been facing significantly tougher competition and will have the benefit of the larger cage and the home crowd. Meanwhile, five of Spivac’s last six fights have been at the Apex in the smaller cage and with no crowd. Now he’ll be going into enemy territory in front of a packed arena and he’ll have to chase down one of the most athletic Heavyweights the UFC has ever seen in a larger cage. The only other time Spivac headlined a UFC card was at the Apex in his recent first round submission win over Derrick Lewis and this will be a whole new experience for him. He already has some cardio concerns and has never seen the championship rounds before, and even a slight adrenaline dump would only compound that. He’s also never landed a finish beyond the second round, so there are plenty of reasons to think he fails here as he faces a major step up in competition. When you combine those factors with his high ownership on this smaller slate, being underweight on him is objectively the right move in tournaments. We’re not saying he can’t win, and if he does he’ll almost surely end up in winning lineups. However, most of those lineups will be significantly more duped and overall less profitable, while Spivac projects to be higher owned than his actual chances of winning. Don’t forget the books originally set him as a +170 underdog before the public bet him down. The odds imply Spivac has a 40% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Morgan Charriere OVER 104.5 Pts
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