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Fight Day Scratches: Taira vs. Candelario is OFF!

Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Tatsuro Taira

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut at just 22 years old, undefeated Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira turned pro in August 2018 when he was just 18 years old. He’s spent his entire career fighting on the Japanese regional scene and he hasn’t faced the most diverse set of opponents, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the level of competition in the UFC.

Taira holds a perfect 10-0 record, with eight of his wins coming early, including three TKOs and five submissions to go along with two decision wins. One of those decisions came in a two-round fight that actually took place down at 115 lb, which is something you rarely see in men’s professional MMA. The only time Taira has been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes came in a 2020 three-round decision that took place at 135 lb. Since then he’s submitted three straight opponents in the first round, and all five of his career submission wins have ended in round one. Two of his three TKO wins also came in round one, with the other ending 19 seconds into round two. Four of his last five fights have been at 129 lb or 135 lb, but half of his career has taken place at 125 lb. Interestingly, his only 125 lb fight in his last five came in his second most recent match when he won the Shooto Flyweight belt with a late first round submission.

In his most recent match, Taira patiently picked his spots from the outside, largely relying on leg kicks early on, which is how he approaches most fights. Late in the first round, he landed a series of strikes that staggered his opponent, at which point Taira immediately took his back and choked him out. He showed zero interest in looking for ground and pound and went straight for his opponent’s neck once he had him hurt. All five of his career submission wins have come by some form of choke.

Taira has crisp leg strikes and looks to be a dangerous grappler, but his level of experience remains somewhat of a question mark as he prepares to make his debut at such a young age. He’s never fought outside of Japan before so it’s hard to know how he’ll adjust to fighting in Las Vegas for the first time. It’s also hard to know how his cardio will look later in fights, as he’s only been in two matches that have lasted longer than six minutes and has only seen the third round once. He’ll now face an older opponent who’s never been finished in his career.

Carlos Candelario

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Candelario is coming off his first career loss in a split-decision on DWCS in August 2021 against Victor Altamirano, who recently lost a decision in his UFC debut. That loss came just a few weeks after Candelario won a decision in early August 2021, which was his first time fighting in four years following a close August 2017 decision win in his first trip on DWCS. He unfortunately tore his ACL in that victory which began his extended layoff. After briefly retiring during his lengthy recovery, Candelario finally decided to give it another shot in 2021, almost four years to the day from his win on DWCS. In a fight that took place up at 135 lb, opposed to 125 lb where both of his DWCS matches took place, Candelario won a decision against an undersized and struggling opponent in Miguel Restrepo, who was also coming off a long three year layoff and has now lost five of his last six fights. That was actually the second time those two squared off after Candelario submitted Restrepo in the second round of a 2017 match. After five of his first six career wins came early, Candelario has now fought to three straight decisions and hasn’t finished an opponent since 2017.

Now 8-1 as a pro, Candelario has two wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. His only career loss came in his recent split decision. All five of his finishes occurred in the first halves of fights, with four in round one and the other early in round two. He has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb as well as a few Catchweight fights in the past. Five of his fights have been at 125 lb, with three of those going the distance (2-1). Two have been at 135 lb, with one decision and a first round submission win. The remaining two were a 2017 130 lb Catchweight R2 submission win and a 2017 139 lb Catchweight R1 KO win. Only two of his five finishes came against opponents with winning records and he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition.

In his recent split-decision loss, Candelario started strong in the fight, landing three of his four takedown attempts in the first round, while also leading 36-19 in significant strikes in the first five minutes. Candelario continued to control the fight for most of the second round, but began slowing down late in the round. He then really appeared to gas out in round three where he basically did nothing for the final five minutes. In fairness to Candelario, he had fought just a few weeks earlier and hadn’t had much time to prepare. It still appeared that Candelario had done enough in the first two rounds to win the fight, but two of the judges disagreed and he ended up losing a split-decision. The fight ended with Candelario behind in significant strikes 100-73 and in total strikes 178-123, but that was largely due to the third round where Altamirano led in significant strikes 54-14 and in total strikes 64-17. Altamirano landed 4 of his 8 takedown attempts, while Candelario landed 5 of his 16 attempts. Candelario finished ahead in control time 5:14-2:03.

Candelario is a former golden gloves champion and has pretty good boxing with decent power in his hands. He also notably attempted 16 takedowns in his most recent fight, although he only landed five of those. He has a tendency to come on strong but fade later in fights and has never finished anybody beyond the midway mark of round two.

Fight Prediction:

Candelario will have a 1” height advantage, but Taira will have a 2” reach advantage.

With just two fights since 2017, Candelario’s inactivity is concerning as he prepares to make his UFC debut against an opponent who just turned pro in 2018, a year after Candelario’s first appearance on DWCS. While Taira has won all 10 of his fights in his brief three and a half year pro career, Candelario is just 1-1 in a pair of decisions since 2017. Candelario may be the better boxer, but Taira is the superior grappler and also appears to have the kicking advantage. Taira likes to keep fights at kicking range and engage in the clinch to look for takedowns when things get tighter, so Candelario may have trouble finding his striking range in this matchup. While Taira has never lost a fight, Candelario’s only defeat came in his recent split-decision loss, so both fighters have been durable up to this point in their careers. Candelario got taken down 8 times on 15 attempts the first time he went on DWCS and 4 times on 8 attempts most recently, which doesn’t bode well for his chances of keeping this fight standing. While Candelario has three submission wins on his record, he hasn’t looked especially dangerous as a grappler and his background is in boxing. He’ll want to make this a striking battle to have a chance to pull off the upset and he runs the risk of getting submitted if it hits the mat. With both guys making their respective UFC debuts, this remains a high-variance spot and neither one of them have ever landed a finish beyond the midway mark of round two. In a pure striking battle we could see it going either way, but Taira’s grappling gives him the edge and we like him to either land an early submission or win a decision through a mix of patient striking and grappling.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +160.

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DFS Implications:

Taira is a patient striker on the feet, which isn’t great for DFS, but he’s an aggressive grappler on the mat and has landed three straight first round submissions. He’s still just 22 years old and has never fought outside of Japan, so it will be interesting to see if the moment is too big for him as he prepares to make his UFC debut against an opponent who’s also debuting but is eight years older than him. Candelario was taken down 12 times on 23 attempts in his two appearances on DWCS, which is encouraging for Taira’s chances of getting this fight to the mat. However, Candelario has just one career loss and has never been finished. Taira has only been past the second round once in his career, and that came in a slower paced fight, so it’s hard to know what his cardio will look like down the stretch, but Candelario has faded late in fights in the past. Based on his low striking output and high price tag, Taira likely needs a finish to return value, but there’s always a slight chance he could put on a dominating grappling performance and still score well in a decision. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Candelario notably landed five takedowns on 16 attempts in his recent split-decision loss on DWCS, but Taira is a dangerous grappler so it will be risky for Candelario to spam takedowns here. We haven’t seen Candelario land enough significant strikes in any of his fights to score well in a decision off striking alone, so he’ll either need a finish or a mix of striking and grappling in a decision win to be useful in DFS. With both of these two fighters making their UFC debuts, this is a high variance spot with a wider range of outcomes, which is reason enough to have some exposure to both sides, but it’s hard to be overly confident in either guy scoring well as neither of them have ever been finished in their careers. Candelario has only fought twice since 2017 after he took four years off following an ACL tear, and the last time he finished an opponent was in 2017 just before going on DWCS for the first time. He’s also never landed a finish beyond the midway mark of round two and looked terrible in the third round of his last fight. The odds imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Gina Mazany

9th UFC Fight (2-5)

Looking to bounce back from a late second round TKO loss against Priscila Cachoeira, Mazany is just 2-4 in her last six fights. She’s alternated losses and wins over her last five matches and is now 1-1 since dropping down to 125 lb. In those recent two fights, she landed 11 takedowns on 21 attempts, with both matches ending in late round KO/TKOs. Mazany hasn’t required the judges in any of her last five bouts and the last time she went the distance was in 2018. Mazany spent most of her career fighting at 135 lb but actually had a fight all the way up at 155 lb in 2020 outside of the UFC. After going 1-4 at 135 lb in her first five UFC fights, Mazany dropped down to 125 lb in 2020 following a 22 second R1 TKO loss to Julia Avila. Mazany looked great in her Flyweight debut as she landed a late third round TKO, although it did come against a non-UFC-level-talent in Rachael Ostovich, who went 1-3 in the UFC with all three losses ending early. Following that win, Mazany appeared to be on her way to landing a second straight win in her most recent fight, but ended up gassing out and getting finished late in the second round by Priscila Cachoeira.

Mazany is now 7-5 as a pro, with three wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. She’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has one decision defeat. Three of her four early losses have come in under two minutes, with the other ending late in round two. Four of her five early wins have also come in the first round, with the other ending in round three. Three of her last four finishes have come by KO/TKO. Mazany was born in Alaska and that’s where she started her pro MMA career, but she’s now training out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause. Mazany originally turned pro in 2008 the day after her 20th birthday. However, after fighting once in 2008 and once in 2009, she didn’t fight again until 2013. And then after that 2013 fight, she didn’t fight again until 2016. She’s now fought just 12 times in nearly 14 years. Also notable, three of her seven career wins came against opponents who entered with a combined 0-1 pro record.

In her most recent fight, Mazany was easily able to take Cachoeira down and control her on the mat, but the fight swung in an instant on a very questionable stand up by the referee midway through the second round. After having her dominant position rudely taken away from her by referee Mike Beltran, Mazany looked exhausted on the feet and was unable to return the fight to the mat on several half-hearted attempts. At that point, Cachoeira was able to get her up against the fence and began to tee off on her as the fight was stopped with nine seconds remaining in the second round. The fight ended with Cachoeira ahead in significant strikes 36-33, but Mazany leading in total strikes 77-47, takedowns 4-0, and control time 6:44-0:17.

Mazany is a low-level fighter with questionable cardio and durability. She’s well coached and does a good job of utilizing trips to land takedowns and seems to make the most of what she has. Her grappling-heavy approach to fighting reduces the number of strikes she has to take on the feet, but also tests her gas tank later in fights and she’s generally a finish or get finished type of fighter.

Shanna Young

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still in search of her first UFC win, Young has lost both of her UFC fights and is now just 1-3 in her last four matches. It’s really tough to come back from 0-3 in the UFC, so Young should be desperate for a win here. She’s been finished in the second round in two of her last three losses and got dominated on the mat in her last fight. Young made her 2020 UFC debut at 135 lb against a huge Macy Chiasson and lost a lopsided unanimous 30-26 decision. She then had a baby and took 19 months off following the loss, but stayed at 135 lb for her most recent fight and got finished with ground and pound in the second round by Stephanie Egger. Young will now be dropping down to 125 lb for the first time in the UFC, but she has gone 2-0 at 125 lb in the past in official pro fights. She also had two exhibition matches at 125 lb in 2019, where she went 1-1 with the loss ending in a first round submission against Miranda Maverick. Young originally tried to make it into the UFC through DWCS, but was submitted in the second round by a terrible Sarah Alpar.

Young is now 7-4 as a pro, with one win by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. She’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Ten of her 11 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with eight seeing round three. Both of her early losses occurred in the second round and three of her four early wins came in round three. We should take her early wins with a grain of salt, as they came against opponents who entered with records of 0-1, 2-0, 1-1, and 0-0.

In her last fight, Young got dominated on the mat and finished in a R2 TKO against a Judo black belt in Stephanie Egger. While Egger completely controlled the fight on the ground, she did have to navigate her way through a heel hook attempt by Young for an extended period in the first round. Nevertheless, Egger finished ahead in significant strikes 29-22 and in total strikes 62-26, while also landing 2 of her 4 takedown attempts with three and a half minutes of control time.

Overall, Young is an uninspiring fighter who doesn’t appear to belong in the UFC. Her karate background is evident in the way she throws kicks, which is really all she offers on offense. She’s been taken down five times on 12 attempts in her two UFC fights and was also taken down twice on three attempts in her DWCS match. Her biggest weakness is her grappling and she needs to keep fights on the feet to have a chance.

Fight Prediction:

Young will have a 1” height advantage, but Mazany will have a 3” reach advantage.

This is a low-level grappler versus striker matchup between two fighters who are simply trying to keep their spots on the roster and the fact that Young is dropping down to 125 lb for the first time in the UFC adds some uncertainty into the mix. Mazany was doing great in her last fight until she gassed out late in the second round, so there has to be some level of concern with her cardio if she can’t get an early finish. With that said, Mazany has a major grappling advantage and as long as she doesn't gas out again she should be able to easily control Young on the ground and win this fight. We like her chances to get a finish on the mat, but it will likely come by attrition unless Young presents her neck on a silver platter, which is always possible. Mazany hasn’t gone the distance in any of her last five fights, while four of Young’s last six matches have also ended early. We would be surprised if this one required the full 15 minutes and we like Mazany to get a finish on the ground in round two.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance” at +145.

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DFS Implications:

While Mazany only has two UFC wins on her record, she scored 138 and 118 DraftKings points in those two victories even though both fights made it to the third round, with one going the distance. Helping to drive her DFS production, Mazany landed a combined 12 takedowns in those two wins, while racking up a ton of ground strikes and control time. So while Mazany doesn't win very often, when she does, she makes it count. This looks like an ideal matchup for another ceiling performance from her and she was on her way to breaking the slate in her last fight before she gassed out late in round two and ended up getting finished herself. That was partially the result of a terrible stand up by the referee, but Mazany’s cardio is one of her biggest concerns. While Mazany is never a comfortable play as she’s gone just 2-5 in the UFC with four of those losses coming early, she offers tournament winning upside (for both her and her opponent). The odds imply Mazany has a 62% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Young is not a UFC level talent, but she finds herself in a boom or bust matchup and will notably be moving down to 125 lb for the first time in the UFC. That drop in weight makes this a higher variance spot as it’s hard to say how she’ll look after the weight cut. We often see fighters leave their chin on the scale following cuts, but when a move down is done right it can also result in a size and power advantage. So overall, it increases the chances that this fight ends early. Young should be very low owned as she hasn’t even topped 20 DraftKings points in either of her two UFC fights. However, if she does get a win here there’s a really good chance it comes early and scores well on all DFS platforms. She looks like a gross but solid leverage play with tournament winning upside. The odds imply she has a 38% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Natan Levy

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Levy is hoping to rebound from a decision loss in his UFC debut, which was the first defeat of Levy’s short seven-fight MMA career. Four of his last five fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being an early third round submission win on DWCS in November 2020. In his DWCS win, he appeared content with resting from top position at times and while he finished with eight and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just under 11 minutes, he only landed 18 significant strikes and 40 total strikes to go along with two takedowns. So he wasn’t very active on the mat when it came to striking. He landed an arm-triangle choke submission just a minute into the third round and finished with two official submission attempts, so he’s more looking for submissions on the mat then ground and pound.

Now 6-1 as a pro, Levy has three wins by submission and three decisions. Two of those submissions came in the first round of his first two pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 2-1 and overall he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition. Levy started his career at 145 lb, before competing in a 160 lb Catchweight match when he went on DWCS in 2020 and then settling in at 155 lb for his recent debut. So he’s yet to win a fight at 155 lb and the weight class is still pretty new to him.

In his recent loss, Levy lost a grappling-heavy decision to Rafa Garcia. While Levy led in significant strikes 47-35 and in total strikes 56-55, Garcia landed 7 of his 12 takedown attempts with over five and a half minutes of control time, while Levy was only able to land 3 of his 7 takedown attempts with just 48 seconds of control time.

Levy is a Karate and Kung Fu black belt and he throws solid kicks, but he also likes to get fights to the ground and hunt for submissions. He’s got decent speed but has yet to show the ability to knock opponents out. He’s somewhat well rounded as he can be competitive on the feet and the mat, but he hasn’t really stood out anywhere. He was nearly knocked out on the feet in a 2020 LFA fight but was narrowly able to survive and use his grappling to buy time to recover as he still won a decision, so we have seen him close to getting finished.

Mike Breeden

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Also looking to bounce back from a loss in his recent UFC debut, Breeden got knocked out in the first round by Alexander Hernandez after accepting the fight on short notice and missing weight by 2.5 lb. That’s the second time Breeden has been finished in his career, with both of those losses ending in first round knockouts. Breeden fought at 170 lb for a four fight stretch in 2018-2019, but the rest of his career has been down at 155 lb aside from a couple of 158-160 lb Catchweight matches. Breeden originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a hardfought decision and was forced to return to the regional scene.

Now 10-4 as a pro, Breeden has eight wins by KO and two by decision. Five of his career knockout victories have come in the first round, two have ended in round three and one was stopped in round two. He’s also been knocked out in the first round twice himself, while his other two losses have both gone the distance. So overall 7 of his 14 career fights have ended in first round knockouts (5-2), three have ended in later round knockouts (3-0), and two have gone the distance (2-2).

In his recent short notice debut, Breeden had his work cut out for him as he took on UFC veteran Alexander Hernandez. Breeden was clearly outmatched and it only took 80 seconds for Hernandez to knock him out. Hernandez finished ahead in striking 20-6, but Breeden was able to stuff both of his takedown attempts.

Overall, Breeden is a heavy handed boxer, but he stands a little flatfooted at times and got his legs absolutely destroyed on DWCS. He did show off his toughness as he gutted through till the end, continuing to hunt for a knockout despite the fact that he could barely stand. He’s a one dimensional striker, but he will occasionally mix in takedown attempts. He relies mostly on his boxing and looks vulnerable to having his legs chewed up. Breeden trains out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause, which is always a plus, so you know he’ll be well coached. After missing weight for his last fight, Breeden will be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins

Fight Prediction:

Breeden will have a 1” height advantage, but Levy will have a 1” reach advantage.

Considering that Breeden is a one-dimensional boxer who comes in looking to knock out all of his opponents, we expect Levy to be looking to take this fight to the ground early and often. Breeden was taken down twice on nine attempts in his 2020 DWCS match, and then stuffed both of Alexander Hernandez’s takedown attempts in his last fight, so he’s shown a decent takedown defense, but he still lost both of those fights. Working in his favor, Breeden has never been submitted and Levy has never knocked anybody out. The most likely outcome here is that Levy will simply ride out a decision win from top position, but if the fight ends early look for it to come from either a Breeden knockout or a Levy submission. Levy likes to throw a lot of kicks, while Breeden is primarily a boxer, so it could be challenging for Breeden to find his range as Levy will be looking to grapple when the fight gets within punching distance. We expect Levy to win a grappling-heavy decision, but Breeden’s best shot at pulling off the upset will be with an early knockout.

Our favorite bet here is “Levy Decision” at +150.

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DFS Implications:

Levy scored just 37 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his UFC debut a year after landing a third round submission win on DWCS to crack the UFC roster. That finish still would have scored just 82 DraftKings points, in what was a low-volume grappling heavy affair. So Levy hasn’t given us much to get excited about when it comes to his DFS outlook. However, Levy is now going against a one-dimensional striker, so the potential for a grappling-heavy decision win is there. That makes him a more interesting play on DraftKings than FanDuel based on control time, although Levy doesn’t generally land a ton of ground strikes, which is concerning for his DraftKings ceiling. He’ll likely need a finish in the first two rounds to return value at his high price tag, and the biggest reason to be interested in him is his lower ownership. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

Breeden looks like a KO or bust fighter who’s now facing an opponent who’s never been finished, albeit in a limited career. Breeden has heavy hands, but that’s about all he has going for him as he doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. Levy should be looking to take this fight to the mat and kick from the outside when it is standing, so it’s not a spot where we would expect Breeden to put up a big striking total. We don’t see him scoring well unless he knocks Levy out. Working in Breeden’s favor, he has spent some time at 170 lb, while Levy spent most of his career down at 145 lb. So if Breeden can land something clean, he does have a decent chance of putting Levy out. Eight of Breeden’s 10 career wins have come by knockout, including five in the first round. The odds imply Breeden has a 38% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Gabe Green

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Fourteen months removed from his first UFC win, Green dealt with a “bruised heart” suffered during training that forced him into the hospital for a few days and out of training for a few months. He also had laser eye surgery during his time away so he should be able to see better now. He had been scheduled to fight Dwight Grant in October 2021, but was forced to withdraw due to the heart issue. Green has won seven of his last eight fights, with his only loss during that stretch coming in his short notice UFC debut against Daniel Rodriguez that ended in a crazy high-volume brawling decision. While his last two fights have both gone the distance, his first 11 pro fights all ended early, with his first nine ending in eight minutes or less.

Green is now 10-3 as a pro, with three wins by KO and six by submission. His first career decision win came in his most recent fight, while his first career decision loss came in his previous UFC debut. His other two pro losses both ended in first round knockouts in his fourth and fifth pro fights back in 2016 and 2017. One of those notably came against UFC fighter Jalin Turner. Five of his early wins have come in the first round, two ended in round two and one occurred in round three. All six of the submission wins have come by rear-naked choke. Green notably took nearly two years off before his May 2020 UFC debut, with his previous fight coming all the way back in August 2018. He had both shoulder and hand surgery over that time and has had to deal with a variety of health issues over the last several years. While both of Green’s UFC fights have been at 170 lb, where this next one will also be, he had been fighting mostly down at 155 lb before joining the UFC.

In his last fight, Green won a decision over a debuting Phil Rowe. Green destroyed Rowe’s lead leg to the extent that Rowe could hardly even stand on it late in the fight. Green may have been able to get a finish if he had simply made Rowe stand up with a minute remaining in the third round after Rowe collapsed from a final leg strike, but Green instead curiously decided to go to the ground with him instead. Green finished ahead in significant strikes 70-42 and in total strikes 128-48, while also notching a pair of knockdowns and two takedowns on two attempts along with over three minutes of control time. Rowe actually looked pretty decent in the first round, although at times appeared to struggle with the pressure of Green, which seemed to negate Rowe’s massive height and reach advantages.

Green seems a little undersized for the 170 lb division, but he seems intent on making that his home in the UFC, and in fairness he looked great in his last fight against a much taller and longer opponent. Green has no problem taking part in a brawl and has proven himself to be durable as he’s gone the distance against a pair of finishers in Daniel Rodriguez and Phil Rowe so far in the UFC.

Yohan Lainesse

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut following a first round KO win on DWCS, Lainesse is making his UFC debut as an undefeated prospect. He’s knocked out his last two and four of his last five opponents and has only been in two fights that made it past the midway mark of round two.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Lainesse has two decision victories and six wins by KO, including five in round one and one in the first half of round two. Most of his career has been spent at 170 lb, but he has competed at 185 lb once and another time at a 180 lb Catchweight. The only time he’s finished an opponent beyond the first round came in his second most recent fight in a CFFC Welterweight title fight, where Lainesse got a questionable second round stoppage due to body shots along the fence.

In his recent first round KO win on DWCS, Lainesse landed a 97 second knockout with a clean left hook to the chin of his opponent. Lainesse shot for a takedown early in that match, while his opponent looked to defend it with an unsuccessful guillotine attempt. Lainesse was unable to do anything on the mat and his opponent was able to get up along the fence, but Lainesse then showed how powerful his lead left hand is as he landed a stiff jab and then a fighting ending hook. There were only seven total significant strikes landed in the fight, with Lainesse leading 5-2.

Overall, Lainesse is a sloppy brawler who will mix in occasional takedowns and has a 7-8 minute gas tank. He’s very aggressive and constantly looking to land fight-ending haymakers. He’s yet to suffer a loss to learn from in his career, but his current fighting style has a capped ceiling as begins to face tougher competition. We don’t see him changing his fighting style until he’s forced to do so following multiple losses and look for him to continue to look to steamroll his competition until then.

Fight Prediction:

Lainesse will have a 3” height and reach advantage.

This sets up as one of the most exciting fights on the card between two brawlers who always leave it all out there. Green is the more technical striker, while Lainesse relies on landing wild kill shots. Green hasn’t been finished since early 2017, while Lainesse has never lost a fight, but Green has faced tougher competition in his career. Green is a much better grappler and also has the clear cardio advantage and Lainesse will be reliant on landing a knockout in the first half of this match to pull off the upset. We like Green to outlast Lainesse and either land a late finish or win a high-volume decision.

Our favorite bet here is Green’s ML at -125.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Green is a high-volume brawler who leads the slate in average significant strikes landed at 6.57/min. His first 11 pro fights all ended early (9-2), and despite both of his UFC fights going the distance, he was still able to score 105 DraftKings points in his recent decision win over Phil Rowe. That score was bolstered by both a pair of knockdowns and a pair of takedowns, but it showed his ability to fill up the stat sheet. Prior to that, he landed 127 significant strikes in his short notice UFC debut against Daniel Rodriguez and scored 51 points in a decision loss. So he has the ability to score well even without a finish, but it will require him to land multiple takedowns and/or knockdowns. He’s coming off a 14 month layoff and going against an undefeated UFC newcomer, which makes this a higher variance spot with a wider range of outcomes. Both guys are aggressive brawlers, so we expect to see a high-volume melee with a good chance that the winner puts up a solid score. The odds imply Green has a 56% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.

Lainesse is an aggressive brawler who tries to orphan a child everytime he throws a punch. His recklessness has yet to catch up with him, which allows him to fight with total unabated confidence. He’ll undoubtedly run into a buzzsaw sooner rather than later which could knock him down a peg, but until then he makes for great fights and tons of DFS potential. All six of his early wins have come in the first halves of fights, with five of those ending in round one. He has about a 7-8 minute gas tank so you’re really playing him for his ability to land a finish in the first round and a half of fights. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Daniel Da Silva/Lacerda

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from an early second round TKO loss in his recent UFC debut, Da Silva was finished by a tough Jeff Molina. That was just the second time Da Silva has ever lost and also just the second time he’s been past the first round. His only other career loss came in a 2019 37 second TKO due to an arm injury.

Now 11-2 as a pro, Da Silva has five wins by KO and six by submission. Both of his losses have come by TKO. He’s never seen the third round and 11 of his fights have ended in round one (10-1), with the other two ending in round two (1-1). Da Silva turned pro in 2017 at 135 lb, but quickly moved down to 125 lb.

In his recent loss, Da Silva started strong, landing several solid kicks and then taking Molina’s back on the feet. Molina was able to shake Da Silva off the top and then avoid armbar and triangle choke attempts from Da Silva on the mat. Molian finished the round landing heavy ground and pound and Da Silva saw round two for just the second time in 13 pro fights. Molina dropped Da Silva 20 seconds into round two as Da Silva appeared to be fading, and Molina was easily able to force a stoppage through ground and pound on the mat as Da Silva simply covered up.

A BJJ brown belt, Lacerda is primarily a grappler but also likes to throw a decent number of kicks on the feet. He has solid submission skills and will also look for ground and pound on the mat, which is where a chunk of his KOs have come from. All six of his submission wins have come in the first round either by armbar or triangle choke and he’s incredibly active off his back hunting for submissions, while he’s more so looking for ground and pound from top position. His biggest issue appears to be his cardio and durability and he’s clearly an offensive minded fighter who’s sole focus is on finishing fights quickly. Prior to joining the UFC, Da Silva built coffins, which is convenient considering all the corpses he leaves in his wake.

Francisco Figueiredo

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Figueiredo is coming off a decision loss against a suspect Malcolm Gordon and has now gone 1-1-1 in his last three fights, which all went the distance. He won a decision against a terrible Jerome Rivera in his UFC debut, but was also the only UFC fighter who wasn’t able to finish Rivera, who finished 0-4 in the UFC with three losses in six minutes or less. Figueiredo notably slowed down some in the third round and his gas tank is definitely questionable.

Now 12-4-1 as a pro, Figueiredo has three wins by KO, seven by submission, and just two decisions. He’s also been knocked out once, submitted another time, and has two decision losses. The two times he’s been finished came much earlier in his career, in a 2011 R3 TKO and a 2012 R2 submission. Six of his last seven fights have made it past the first round. Figueiredo has competed as high as 145 lb and had been at 135 lb until he made his 2021 UFC debut and dropped down to 125 lb, where he’s since gone 1-1 in a pair of decisions.

In Figueiredo’s last fight, Gordon hunted aggressively for takedowns, but his overeagerness quickly found him on his back. After spending half a round in bottom position, he finally escaped after Figueiredo foolishly looked for a heel hook. Gordon continued to push the pace in the fight as he never let Figueiredo get comfortable and went on to win a decision. Gordon only landed 2 of his 11 takedown attempts, and was taken down on both of Figueiredo’s two attempts. Gordon led in significant strikes 46-28 and in totals strikes 100-52. He also led in control time 6:01 to 4:15 as he won a grappling heavy affair.

Overall, Figueiredo is a superficial clone of his brother minus the fighting skills. He’s prone to gassing out, and lacks the power and submission abilities that his brother possesses. With that said 10 of his 12 pro wins have come early, so he’s at least been able to put away low level opponents on the regional scene. However, the fact that he couldn’t finish Jerome Rivera or Malcolm Gordon says more to us than his pre-UFC record.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’6” but Da Silva will have a 2” reach advantage and is seven years younger than the 32-year-old Figueiredo.

Both of these guys have cardio concerns, and there’s a really good chance one or both of them will gas out if this fight makes it to the back half. With that in mind, 11 of Figueiredo’s last 13 fights have made it out of round one, while 11 of Da Silva’s 13 career fights have ended in round one. So Figueiredo is the more accustomed of the two to longer fights, while Da Silva has been reliant on putting opponents away quickly. Figueiredo is a BJJ black belt, while Da Silva is just a brown belt, so it will be interesting to see how the grappling exchanges go, as Da SIlva has been the more impressive finisher with his submissions. We still like Da Silva’s chances of landing a first round finish, but it’s not the best matchup for that to happen even if Figueiredo has failed to impress us. Things could get dicey in round two and at that point the winner may simply be decided by who has more left in the gas tank. Da Silva faded hard following the first round in his debut and if that happens again he may be a sitting duck for Figueiredo to finish. It’s not a comfortable pick but we’ll say Da Silva gets a first round win. If that doesn’t happen then this is an interesting live betting opportunity on Figueiredo.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -105.

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DFS Implications:

Da Silva has never been past the second round and 10 of his 11 wins have come in round one, so he clearly has tons of upside. However, we also saw him fade hard after the first round in his recent debut and easily get finished early in round two, so he also presents upside for his opponent. Figueiredo hasn’t been finished since 2012 and is a BJJ black belt, but overall hasn’t been very impressive. Da Silva has a solid chance to hand Figueiredo the first round one loss of his career, but if that doesn’t happen then things may get very dicey in round two. So overall, Da Silva is a boom or bust play with a massive ceiling and a non-existent floor who is reliant on landing an early finish to win and score well. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Figueiredo was unable to finish Jerome Rivera, who has been finished in his other three UFC fights, or even beat Malcolm Gordon, who had been finished in each of his previous two UFC fights. Now Figueiredo gets a more dangerous opponent, but also one with a very questionable gas tank. With that said, Figueiredo has cardio concerns of his own, and we may be trying to middle a double gas out with a brief window in the second round after Da Silva gasses but before Figueiredo empties his tank. The potential for both of these two to gas out is certainly there, which is the most likely way this fight busts, but we still expect it to end early, either with a Da Silva first round finish or a Figueiredo finish in round two. The odds imply Figueiredo has a 48% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Alexander Romanov

5th UFC Fight (4-0)

Romanov originally stepped in to face Tanner Boser on last week’s card with a little over a month to prepare after Rodrigo Nascimento dropped out. However, then Boser also dropped out about a week before this fight was originally set to take place. After just recently cutting Chase Sherman, the UFC was desperate to find a replacement and offered him a new contract to step into this execution spot on a few day’s notice. Sherman accepted but then somehow withdrew after last week’s event had already started, only to get the matchup pushed back a week.

Romanov is coming off a second round ground and pound TKO win against Jared Vanderaa where he controlled the entire fight before forcing the late second round stoppage. Romanov finished the fight with five takedowns landed on seven attempts with six and a half minutes of control time, while leading in significant strikes 56-13 and total strikes 78-19. Vanderaa did a pretty good job of returning to his feet in round one, but was unable to get off his back in round two.

Prior to that lopsided win, we saw Romanov struggle for the first time in his career as he took on another Heavyweight grappler in Juan Espino. The two essentially fought to a stalemate before the fight was stopped early in round three for what appeared to be a pretty pedestrian inadvertent low blow by Espino. While it didn’t look like Espino put much behind the illegal knee to the groin, Romanov was completely gassed at that point and seemed to be simply looking for a way out of the fight. Romanov said he couldn’t continue and the fight ended in a split technical decision that Romanov narrowly won. In the end, Romanov led in significant strikes 32-12 and in total strikes 53-44, while landing 2 of his 4 takedown attempts with a little under six minutes of control time. Espino landed 4 of his 5 attempts with just under three minutes of control time. That’s the only time Romanov has ever required the judges’ score cards in his career.

The first round of that Espino fight was close, with Romanov narrowly leading in significant strikes 5-4 and in control time 2:18-1:28, while Espino led in total strikes 20-14 and in takedowns 2-1. Neither guy was able to do much with their takedowns, making the round tougher to score. Espino’s biggest mistake in the fight was going for a Guillotine early in R2 that allowed Romanov to take top position and rain down strikes for several minutes and win the round. With all three judges rightfully giving Romanov R2 and Espino R3, the decision all came down to the close first round and two of the three judges thought Romanov did enough. Overall, Espino’s grappling prowess gave Romanov trouble as it prevented the one-sided domination on the mat we’ve seen from Romanov in the past. Both guys looked exhausted by the end of the second round, but Espino appeared to have a little more left in the tank. So the biggest takeaways were Romanov has little interest in fighting on the feet and has a one and half to two round gas tank.

Romanov owns a perfect 15-0 career record and is 4-0 in the UFC. He’s still never been in a fight that lasted longer than 12 and a half minutes, with 10 of his fights ending in round one, two ending in round two, and three ending in the first half of the third round. He has six KOs and eight submission victories.

Romanov made his UFC debut in September 2020 and submitted Roque Martinez late in the second round after dominating him for nine plus minutes on the mat. He then submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima with a rare Forearm Choke late in the first round of his next fight. Romanov has landed 13 takedowns across his four UFC fights, with at least two in each of those. It’s no secret what his plan is coming into every fight, but it’s easier said than done to stop him as he simply overpowers his opponents and slams them to the mat. The only time we’ve ever seen Romanov struggle to get a finish was when he faced another Heavyweight grappler.

Chase Sherman

12th UFC Fight (3-8)

Sherman had just been cut from the UFC for the second time following his third straight loss, so it makes sense that he was the one guy willing to take this fight on short notice if it allowed him to get a new contract.

Sherman’s most recent defeat came in a first round submission against Jake Collier, who hadn’t submitted anybody since 2014 when he was fighting at Middleweight. Collier caught a kick from Sherman 80 seconds into the first round and used it to take him down. He was easily able to take full mount as Sherman looked helpless off his back. Sherman rolled over onto his stomach and Collier immediately got his neck. Sherman never even attempted to fight the choke or go after Collier’s grip and instead just skipped right to tapping.

Prior to suffering his first career submission loss, Sherman dropped a pair of decisions to Parket Porter and Andrei Arlovski. In the more recent of those two losses, Sherman entered as a head-scratching -200 favorite against Porter, who outlanded Sherman 149-117 in significant strikes and 159-121 in total strikes. He was also able to land a single takedown with over two minutes of control time, although he missed on seven other takedown attempts. Both guys looked exhausted late in the fight and Sherman hasn’t won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes since 2017. Just before losing to Porter, Sherman dropped another decision to Andrei Arlovski. Sherman started out strong before unsurprisingly fading late in a high-volume stand up battle that Arlovski led 105-88 in significant strikes with no other stats to speak of.

After going 2-5 in the UFC from 2016 to 2018, Sherman was cut following a 2018 R3 KO loss, which marked his third straight defeat. However, after landing three straight R1 KO wins on the regional scene the UFC gave him a second chance in 2020. In his first fight back, Sherman knocked out an undersized and terrible Ike Villanueva before losing his last three fights. Following the win over Villanueva, Sherman was suspended for nine months when he tested positive for an illegal estrogen blocker. While Sherman won three fights outside of the UFC in 2018 and 2019, he’s gone just 1-6 in his last seven UFC matches.

Now 15-9 as a pro, Sherman has 14 wins by KO with his only other victory coming in a 2017 decision. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted once, and has lost four of the five decisions he’s been to. Fifteen of his 24 fights have ended in the first round (12-3), three ended in round two (2-1), one ended in round three (0-1), and five have gone the distance.

Overall, Sherman is a one-dimensional striker and a non-UFC level talent. He fades after the first round and has zero career wins against legitimate competition.

Fight Prediction:

Sherman will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

The UFC negotiated a paid hit when they set up this short notice fight. Sherman laughably just got choked out by Jake Collier and now he’ll face an actual finishing threat. The question here isn’t will Sherman get finished, it’s how quickly will it happen and will it come by KO or submission? Based on how willing Sherman was to give up his back in his last fight and then immediately tapped with no resistance, a first round submission win makes a lot of sense. It’s also entirely possible that Romanov just pounds him out on the mat instead, but we’ll say a submission is more likely. We’d be surprised if this fight made it out of the first round and it’s hard to imagine Sherman will be willing to absorb too much unnecessary damage. He’ll likely be looking for his first way out as we can’t imagine he has any realistic expectations of winning. We’d be shocked if Romanov didn’t get a finish in the first two rounds here.

Our favorite bet here is “Romanov R2 Win” at +475.

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DFS Implications:

This is a unique spot where a 54% owned fighter gets pulled post lock from one card just to be added to the next. So the question is, what percentage of the field will double down compared to jumping ship after getting burned last week? It would be surprising to see many people get off of him here and there’s always a chance he ends up being even more popular with less great options at the top. Romanov has averaged 124 points on DraftKings and 134 points on FanDuel in his three UFC finishes and only failed to put up a massive score in his technical decision win over Juan Espino. Romanov's relentless grappling, violent ground and pound, and history of finishes makes him ideally suited for DFS as he puts up one massive score after the next. That’s no secret to anybody, however, and he was 68% owned the last time he fought, albeit on just a nine fight card. We expect him to be the highest owned fighter on the slate as he faces an even easier opponent who took the fight on short notice, so it’s at least worth exploring how he fails to end up in tournament lineups. The most likely way we would see Romanov not crack winning lineups would be with a hyper efficient finish outside of the first 60 seconds where he gets priced out of winning lineups. That wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see based on how quickly Sherman tapped in his last fight, but there are still far more ways than not that Romanov puts up another slate-breaking score. Just the fact that we’re focussing on how he could potentially fail to break the slate should tell you everything you need to know about just how high his scoring ceiling is. He unquestionably has both the highest floor and ceiling of any fighter on the card. The odds imply he has a 91% chance to win, a 79% chance to land a finish, and a 48% chance it comes in round one.

Sherman was just cut from the UFC and was presumably only brought back because they couldn’t find anyone else to step into this short notice murder spot. Sherman has been a R1 KO or bust fighter throughout his career and has only been able to beat low level opponents. He offers nothing on the ground and also has a very limited gas tank. The odds of him winning this fight are similar to the odds of him becoming the first Heavyweight astronaut, and the ownership will reflect that. His best chance to win would be to either catch Romanov coming in with a clean punch or to win by some sort of disqualification. You’re truly lighting money on fire if you play him in DFS, but he’s arguably in one of the best leverage spots you could ask for from an ownership perspective. The odds imply he has a 9% chance to win, a 5% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it occurs in the first round.

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Fight #6

Krzysztof Jotko

16th UFC Fight (10-5)

Coming off a win against another submission specialist, Jotko won a decision against Misha Cirkunov, who’s now lost three straight. Jotko is the only fighter to take Cirkunov to a decision since 2011 going back 17 fights, showing there’s no matchup that Jotko can’t make boring. Jotko has fought to five straight decisions, winning four of them, and he’s only finished one opponent since 2012, which was a 2016 R1 KO against Tamdan McCrory, who ended up 4-5 in the UFC and was finished in four of his five losses. Prior to his recent win over Cirkunov, Jotko lost a three-round decision to Sean Strickland, which is Jotko’s only loss since 2018. Eleven of his UFC fights have ended in decisions (9-2), three have ended in KO/TKOs (1-2), and one ended in a submission (0-1).

Now 23-5 as a pro, Jotko has six wins by KO, one by submission, and 16 decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. His lone submission loss came in a 2014 R2 guillotine choke, while his two TKO losses came in the second and third round of consecutive fights in 2017 and 2018.

In his recent win over Cirkunov, who was dropping down to 185 lb for the first time, Jotko was able to stuff 12 of Cirkunov’s 17 takedown attempts and consistently remain out of danger as he worked his way to a boring split decision victory. The drop in weight didn’t do Cirkunov any favors as he appeared to lose his explosive grappling power, while failing to gain any speed or quickness at the lighter weight class. The match ended with the two fighters dead even in significant strikes at 41 and essentially even in total strikes with Jotko ahead 56-55. All five of Cirkunov’s takedowns came in the third round, however, that still wasn’t enough for Chris Lee to give him the round on the pivotal score card. Cirkunov also led in control time with 4:06-0:44.

Jotko has an impressive 83% takedown defense and he’s only been taken down 13 times on 79 attempts in his 15 UFC fights. Most of his opponents have a terrible career takedown accuracy for what it’s worth, but overall he’s done a good job of staying on his feet. Jotko is an uninspiring low-volume slot filler who’s sole goal in fighting appears to be survival. Despite fighting to 11 decisions with the UFC, he’s never landed more than 74 significant strikes and has only topped two takedowns once.

Gerald Meerschaert

16th UFC Fight (9-6)

Coming off three straight submission wins, Meerschaert’s last six wins have all come by submission and he’s only been to five decisions in 48 pro fights. Meerschaert landed a late submission against Dustin Stoltzfus in his most recent win and just before that pulled off a stunning upset when he submitted Makhmud Muradov as a massive +500 underdog.

Now 34-14 as a pro, Meerschaert has six wins by KO, 26 by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted eight times, and has three decision losses. He’s only gone the distance in two of his last 20 fights, both of which ended in split-decision losses, and his last six matches have all ended early. Meerschaert fought at 170 lb early in his pro career, but transitioned to 185 lb in 2013-2014, where he’s essentially stayed since, although he did venture up to 205 lb once in 2016.

Meerschaert took on another grappler in Dustin Stoltzfus in his last match, and it played out mostly on the mat, with Meerschaert finishing the fight midway through the third round with a rear-naked choke. Stoltzfus finished ahead in significant strikes 12-11 and in total strikes 51-19, while also landing all four of his takedowns and only getting taken down by Meerschaert once. Stoltzfus also led in control time 7:27-3:14, although Meerschaert finished with three official submission attempts and was the one constantly looking to end the fight from whatever position he was in.

While Meerschaert is a great grappler, he has a suspect chin and his last two losses both ended in knockouts in 74 seconds or less. Six of his UFC fights have ended in the first round (3-3), four have ended in round two (3-1), three have ended in round three (3-0) and two have gone the distance (0-2). He’s often regarded as somewhat of a slow starter and he’s notably gone 6-1 in the UFC in fights that have ended in the later rounds.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’1” with a 77” reach.

It’s always interesting when you have a really boring fighter taking on an exciting finisher, as it’s tougher to say which style will prevail. In this matchup we have Jotko, who almost exclusively fights to decisions and Meerschaert, who almost never goes the distance. It feels eerily similar to Jotko’s last matchup against Misha Cirkunov, which few thought would go the distance, but that’s exactly what happened. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see a very similar result here, but if it does end early look for it to come by either a Jotko KO or a Meerschaert submission. We still expect Jotko to win a decision though.

Our favorite bet here is “Jotko Decision” at +200.

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DFS Implications:

Outside of a flukey R1 KO win back in 2016, Jotko has been almost entirely unusable in DFS. His last five wins have all gone the distance and he only averages 2.92 SSL/min and 2.24 SSA/min. The only time he put up a semi-usable DraftKings score in a decision was when he landed four takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control time in 2019, which is unlikely to happen here against a grappling specialist like Meerschaert. There are two reasons to consider playing Jotko in tournaments and neither one of them has anything to do with his fighting abilities. The main reason is that Meerschaert has a suspect chin and has been knocked out in the opening 90 seconds in each of his last two losses. The second reason is that Jotko will be low owned in tournaments due to how terrible he is and how infrequently he scores well. So he’s somewhat of an interesting leverage play in a favorable spot going against a popular underdog. It’s essentially the same exact spot that Jotko was in for his last fight when he took on Misha Cirkunov as a -145 favorite and was 17% owned on DraftKings, while Cirkunov was 42% owned. Jotko failed to capitalize on Cirkunov’s terrible chin, however, and scored just 56 DraftKings points in the slow paced snoozer. Most likely, this next fight will play out the same way, but there’s always a chance he can land something clean on Meerschaert and put him out. At his expensive price tag, Jotko will likely need a first round knockout to crack winning lineups unless he lands multiple knockdowns and/or takedowns along with a later round knockout. The odds imply Jotko has a 61% chance to win, a 31% chance to get a finish and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

With all nine of his UFC victories coming early, as well as four of his six UFC losses, Meerschaert’s fights generally produce a high scorer in DFS, although we saw in his last fight that it’s possible for him to get a finish and still fail to score well. Here are his DraftKings scores in his nine UFC wins beginning with the most recent: 62, 101, 102, 95, 77, 124, 102, 92, and 98. The two busts were both in close, ultra low-volume back and forth R3 submission wins, showing that he may need a finish in the first two rounds to be useful in closer fights. While Meerschaert generally scores well when he wins, he rarely puts up slate-breaking numbers, so there are still ways he gets a finish even before the third round and fails to crack winning lineups if several other underdogs also win. Jotko has a solid 83% takedown defense and looks to slow fights down, so this looks like a terrible matchup for Meerschaert to hit a ceiling performance. In addition to the bad matchup, Meerschaert projects to be a popular play, so we have little interest in playing him. The odds imply Meerschaert has a 39% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in the first round.

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Fight #5

Darren Elkins

26th UFC Fight (16-9)

Coming off a quick first round KO loss to Cub Swanson, Elkins has now gone just 2-5 in his last seven fights, although both of those wins came in his last three matches. He’s still generally been a really tough guy to finish, and will keep fighting as long as the ref lets him, but he tends to get cracked a lot. Nevertheless, he’s only been finished twice since 2013—in his most recent fight and in a 2018 R3 TKO against Ricardo Lamas. While three of his last five losses have gone the distance, his last three wins all came early, including a 2021 second round TKO win over Darrick Minner, 2020 third round submission of Luiz Eduardo Garagorri, and a 2018 round two submission win over Michael Johnson. The last time Elkins won with the judges was in a 2017 split-decision over Dennis Bermudez.

Elkins is now 26-10 as a pro, with nine wins by KO, five by submission, and 12 decisions. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted once, and has lost five decisions. He had a couple of fights up at 155 lb earlier in his career, but has been exclusively at 145 lb since 2011.

In his most recent fight, Elkins got knocked out by Cub Swanson in just 132 seconds. That's the fourth time Elkins has been knocked out in his career, with three of those coming in round one. Swanson finished ahead in significant strikes 18-2, while stuffing both of Elkin’s takedown attempts. Elkins was never able to do anything in the fight, while Swanson looked sharper than he has in a while. Prior to that R1 loss, Elkins had seen the second round in 16 straight fights.

A BJJ brown belt and former college wrestler, Elkins averages 2.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but has been somewhat sporadic with his takedown numbers. With that said, he’s landed five or more in four of his last eight wins. He averages 8.3 attempts per 15 minutes, but has just a 32% takedown accuracy and lands just 2.7 of those attempts on average. He’s most effective at simply outlasting his opponents, so he finds his most success against opponents with cardio concerns.

Tristan Connelly

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Looking to bounce back from a decision loss against a really tough grappler in Pat Sabatini, Connelly was thrown to the wolves in his first two UFC fights. He made his short notice UFC debut all the way up at 170 lb against Michel Pereira, but somehow managed to win a decision. He then dropped all the way down to 145 lb for his last fight and lost a decision to Pat Sabatini and now hasn’t competed in just over a year after he withdrew from an October 2021 matchup against Makwan Amirkhani. Prior to the loss in his last fight, Connelly had won five straight with four of those wins coming early.

A BJJ black belt, Connelly is now 14-7 as a pro, with 13 of his wins coming early, including four knockouts and nine submissions. He’s gone just 1-5 in decisions, while he has one TKO loss (R1 2011) and one submission loss (R3 2017). His lone decision win came in his short notice UFC debut up at 170 lb.

In his last fight, Connelly got controlled by Pat Sabatini for the majority of the fight as Sabatini finished with just under 10 minutes of control time, with one knockdown and one takedown on five attempts. Sabatini also led in significant strikes 26-19, while Connelly actually led in total strikes 87-73 and also landed his only takedown attempt.

Connelly didn’t fight for 19 months between his debut and most recent fight after having an April 2020 fight/event canceled due to COVID and then having intensive neck surgery to resolve an ongoing injury that had been getting dramatically worse. Connelly has fought anywhere from 145 to 185 lb in the past, but is 0-4 at 145 lb where this next fight will be and has had far more success at 155 lb. Breaking down his 14-7 pro record, he’s 1-0 at 185 lb, 1-0 at 170 lb, 1-0 at 160 lb, 10-3 at 155 lb, 1-0 at 150 lb and 0-4 at 145 lb. With just two fights since 2019, Connelly’s inactivity is certainly concerning, but he’s proven himself to be durable and has a surprisingly high finishing rate.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’10” but Elkins will have a 3” reach advantage.

This is sort of a weird matchup between two durable guys that both struggle to win decisions. Elkins has lost all three of the decisions he’s been to since 2017, while Connelly is just 1-5 in his entire career in fights that go the distance. So it’s tough to say who would get their hand raised if this goes the distance. In terms of finishing outlook, Connelly has only been finished once since 2011 and Elkins has only been finished twice since 2013. Both guys are grinders who tend to wear on their opponents and 8 of Connelly’s last 10 fights have made it past the first round, while only 1 of Elkin’s last 17 fights has ended in the first five minutes. So it will be interesting to see if one of them can get the other out of there later in the fight or if we see this end in a close decision. The latter seems far more likely, but it’s tough to say who will get the nod if that does happen. Forced to choose, we sort of like Connelly’s chances of pulling off the upset, but it’s not a very confident pick.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -166.

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DFS Implications:

While Elkins has gone just 2-5 in his last seven fights, he put up slate-breaking scores in each of those wins as he totalled 122 and 124 DraftKings points in a pair of mid to late round finishes. Elkins relies heavily on his wrestling to score well, and Connelly is notably a BJJ black belt, so this isn’t a great matchup for Elkins to land a submission. Elkins was fortunate in his last win as Darrick Minner simply gassed after selling out for an early finish. Prior to that Elkins submitted a terrible opponent who’s 1-2 in the UFC with both of his losses coming by submission. We don’t see Connelly making things so easy, so we’re less excited about playing Elkins here, but he’s clearly demonstrated a massive ceiling. Elkins hasn’t won a decision since 2017, but the last time he did he scored just 86 DraftKings points. With that said, his three prior decision wins all scored 111 or more, so he’s shown he can still put up massive scores through wrestling alone without a finish, but it’s not a guarantee. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

When you watch Connelly fight, he comes across as more of a grinder than a dangerous finisher, but with 13 of his 14 career wins coming early, he may have some sneaky upside. Priced at just $7,600, it’s also not impossible for him to be useful in a decision win, but it likely requires all of the other dogs priced around him to all fail. Connelly is a BJJ black belt, but we saw him get controlled for almost the entire fight on the mat in his last fight, which isn’t overly encouraging. That did come against a really high-level grappler in Pat Sabatini, so it’s possible Connelly can look better in the grappling exchanges here. We’re not overly excited about Connelly’s chances of landing a finish, but at his low ownership he makes for an interesting tournament play. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Grant Dawson

7th UFC Fight (5-0-1)

After winning eight straight fights, including his first five UFC matches, Dawson fought to a draw against Ricky Glenn in his most recent match. Following the disappointing result in that fight, Dawson made the switch to American Top Team after spending eight years at Glory MMA & Fitness, and Thiago Moises is now one of his main training partners. Dawson had finished three of his previous four opponents, but his last three fights have now all lasted at least 14 minutes and 59 seconds. His only finish in those recent three fights came in a last second KO against Leonardo Santos in Dawson’s second most recent fight. That was also Dawson’s first UFC fight up at 155 lb after he started out at 145 lb with the organization. Most of his pre-UFC fights took place at 155 lb, but he’s gone back and forth between the weight classes throughout his career. Since moving up in weight, Dawson has struggled with his takedown accuracy and while he landed 13 takedowns on 30 attempts (43.3%) in his first four UFC fights, he’s only completed 4 of his 24 attempts (16.7%) since moving up a weight class. Both of his fights at 155 lb have been very close after he dominated opponents down at 145 lb.

Dawson is 17-1-1 as a pro, with four wins by KO, 11 by submission, and just two decisions. His only career loss was a 35 second R1 KO in 2016. Dawson’s last seven fights have all made it out of the first round, with four seeing the third round, and three going the distance. Three of his four career KO wins have come in round two with the other ending in round three, while all 11 of his submission wins have occurred in the first two rounds, with seven in round one and four in round two. His last three submission wins have all come in the first half of the second round.

In his last fight, Dawson successfully executed his wrestling-heavy gameplan for the first 10 minutes, with over four minutes of control time in each round. He appeared well on his way to cruising to a decision win, but Ricky Glenn was finally able to stuff his takedown attempts early in round three and actually ended up in top position. Down two rounds, it appeared that Glenn would need a finish to avoid a loss, but after dominating the final minutes of the fight two of three judges awarded him a 10-8 round, which resulted in a draw. The final 20 seconds may have been what did Dawson in as Glenn aggressively hunted for a finish and then Dawson was very slow to return to his feet following the close of the round. The fight ended with Glenn ahead in significant strikes 28-24 and in total strikes 88-71, while Dawson led in takedowns 3-0 and in control time 8:26-4:30.

Dawson relies heavily on his wrestling and tends to wear on his opponents opposed to finishing fights quickly. He’s a BJJ brown belt and over half of his career wins have come by submission, but his most recent finish did come by knockout. He faded hard in the third round of his last fight, so it will be interesting to see how he looks down the stretch in this next one if it makes it that far. Dawson relies on overpowering his opponents, something he’s had a tougher time doing since moving up to 155 lb. If he loses this next fight it will be interesting to see if he considers moving back down to 145 lb, where he has found more success exerting his will on the opposition.

Jared Gordon

10th UFC Fight (6-3)

Coming off a split decision win over a really tough grappler in Joe Solecki, Gordon is quietly now on a three fight winning streak, with all three of those matches going the distance. Gordon’s only loss in his last five fights came in a 2019 first round knockout against the current Lightweight champ in Charles Oliveira. Gordon’s last five wins have all gone the distance and he’s 10-0 in decisions in his career. However, the last time he finished an opponent was in his 2017 UFC debut which ended in a second round knockout against Michel Quinones, who finished 0-2 in the UFC before hanging it up.

Gordon is now 18-4 as a pro, with six wins by KO, two by submission, and 10 decisions. All four of his losses have come by knockout, with two in round one and two in round three. All but one of his finishes occurred prior to joining the UFC, and he doesn’t look like much of a threat to finish fights at the UFC level. Gordon has competed at both 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, but all of his UFC fights have ended up either being at 149-150 lb Catchweight or 155 lb. All three of his UFC losses have come by knockout at 155 lb, while his lone early win in the UFC came in a 149 lb Catchweight match in his debut. He’s just 3-3 in the UFC at 155 lb, but 3-0 in his Catchweight matches.

In his last fight, Gordon won a close split-decision over Joe Solecki, who was able to take Gordon down just 15 seconds into the fight. Solecki worked his way to Gordon’s back and was able to control Gordon for four minutes while he hunted for a rear-naked choke. Gordon did a good job of defending the submission attempts and then finally returned to his feet in the final minute of the round with Solecki draped all over him. Solecki then attempted a guillotine choke, but Gordon defended that as well and then found himself in top position for the final 30 seconds of the round. Solecki immediately took Gordon back down in round two, but Gordon did a good job of bouncing back up to his feet. Solecki continued to push him up against the cage and look for a takedown, but Gordon defended well until Solecki finally got him down for more than a second midway through the round. However, in a turning point in the fight, Gordon was able to reverse the position and control Solecki on the mat for the remainder of the uneventful round. Round three remained mostly on the feet, and Solecki surprisingly only shot for one failed takedown in the final five minutes. Gordon was a little busier on the feet and also landed the only takedown in the round to steal a decision after getting controlled for the first round and a half of the fight. When the dust settled, Gordon finished ahead 51-38 in significant strikes and 83-70 in total strikes, while Solecki led in takedowns 4-1 and in control time 6:03-4:07. Gordon did just enough to win rounds two and three on the majority of the judges’ score cards to win a close split-decision.

Overall, Gordon is a ground and pound specialist with a suspect chin. He relies on making fights dirty and using his experience to grind out decision wins as he simply wears on his opponents. While he’s a BJJ brown belt, it’s been almost five years since he finished an opponent and close to six years since he submitted anybody. He made the switch in teams from Roufusport to Sanford MMA in 2019 following his knockout loss to Charles Oliveira and has since gone 3-0. He had planned on moving down to 145 lb following that loss, but in his next fight, his opponent, Chris Fishgold missed weight by three pounds and the fight was moved to a 149 lb Catchweight. Gord was able to successfully hit 145 lb for that matchup prior to Fishgold missing, but for his next fight it was Gordon who missed weight by 4 lb when he was set to face Danny Chavez at 145 lb and that fight was moved to a 150 lb Catchweight. Following those two attempts at competing in the 145 lb division which both played out as Catchweight matchups, Gordon moved back up to 155 lb for his last fight. Gordon’s takedown defense will obviously play a major factor in this next matchup and he’s been taken down 8 times on 16 attempts in his nine UFC fights. All eight of those takedowns came in his last six fights, where his opponents have landed 62% of theory attempts, so overall his takedown defense has not been great, although it looked somewhat better in the later rounds of his last match.

Fight Prediction:

Dawson will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.

There are several similarities between these two fighters. They both rely on their wrestling to win fights, both are BJJ brown belts, neither one is a great striker, they’ve each fought at 145 lb and 155 lb in the past, but have both moved up to 155 lb following struggles to hit the 145 lb mark. Dawson has been the better finisher of the two, with 88% of his career wins coming early, but Gordon has impressively gone 10-0 in decisions in his career (Dawson is 2-0-1 in decisions). It will be interesting to see if the grappling strengths of these two cancel each other out to some extent and force more time on the feet than we might expect. Gordon has shown a highly questionable chin, and while Dawson isn’t a great striker, he is willing to throw flying knees and big overhand rights. Those are both low percentage attacks, but if one of them connects he could turn the lights out for Gordon. Neither one of them have ever lost a decision or been submitted, but they’ve each been knocked out. Gordon showed a good submission defense in his last fight against another high-level grappler in Joe Solecki and we expect this fight to go the distance, with a small chance Dawson can land a knockout. The fact that Dawson just switched teams adds some uncertainty to the mix, as we’ve never seen him in a UFC fight without James Krause in his corner, and it’s possible his new team will add some wrinkles in his game. Depending on how Dawson handles the switch, we could see improvements in his game or an adjustment period where he looks worse as he tries to get on the same page with his new team. His biggest weakness has been his striking, so that would be the low hanging fruit when it comes to improving his skill set, and if he has focussed on improving that, then a knockout becomes more likely. However, if he’s not in sync with his new team then it’s possible Gordon can squeak out another close decision win while Dawson adjusts to his new coaches.

Our favorite bet here is “Dawson KO” at +750.

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DFS Implications:

Dawson has failed to top 93 DraftKings points in his last three fights after scoring 101 or more in his first three UFC matches. His recent draw scored 49 points, which still would have only been good for 79 points had the decision gone his way. While his grappling-heavy approach to fighting is a better fit for the DraftKings scoring system, he hasn’t landed more than three takedowns in any of his last five fights and generally doesn’t land a ton of strikes. So while he has a solid floor based on control time and takedowns, his ceiling has been far less reliable and now he’s facing an opponent who just showed he can hold his own against high-level grapplers. The wild card here is that Dawson just switched camps to Sanford MMA after spending eight years at Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause. This will be Dawson’s first fight since the switch, so any changes to his game remain to be seen. That adds some uncertainty to the equation and makes this somewhat of a higher variance spot, although we’d be surprised to see a complete overhaul to his style. Gordon has been taken down 8 times on 13 attempts in his last six fights, which is promising for Dawson’s chances of getting this fight to the mat. However, Gordon has also never been submitted in his career, but has shown a suspect chin on the feet. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Dawson find diminishing success in getting this fight to the ground as it goes on, which would make it tougher for him to return value without a finish. Dawson isn’t known for his striking, but Gordon’s chin has been suspect so there’s a chance Dawson surprises people and finishes this one on the feet. It’s still more likely that we see this play out as a grappling-heavy decision, similar to each of their last fights. The odds imply Dawson has a 62% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

Gordon is coming off his lowest scoring DFS performance in a win of his career and it came in a very similar matchup to this one against another high-level grappler in Joe Solecki. We saw some back and forth grappling followed by a round of striking in that fight and Gordon only scored 74 DraftKings points in the win, after averaging 113 DraftKings points in his first five UFC victories. Gordon is generally looking to get fights to the ground and attack his opponents with relentless ground and pound, but that’s a tougher ask when you’re going against another high-level grappler. It would be completely shocking to see Gordon come out and dominate Dawson on the mat for three rounds and we expect Dawson to at least find some success in putting Gordon on his back. That will likely leave Gordon dependent on landing a finish to score well, something he hasn’t done since his 2017 UFC debut. There is a slight chance that Dawson could gas out and Gordon could have another monstrous third round where he lands a million ground strikes, but that’s really the only way we see him scoring well in a decision here, and it remains an unlikely scenario. The odds imply Gordon has a 38% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Andre Fili

18th UFC Fight (9-7, NC)

Fili unfortunately had his last fight stopped and deemed a No Contest due to an inadvertent eye poke that occurred just as he appeared to be putting the finishing touches on a career best performance. Prior to that disappointing result, Fili had gone the distance in 9 of his previous 10 fights, with the one exception being a 2019 first round knockout against Sheymon Moraes. Fili has gone toe to toe with many of the best guys in the division and his UFC losses have come against Max Holloway, Godofredo Castro, Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, Michael Johnson, Sodiq Yusuff, and Bryce Mitchell. While his first three UFC losses all came early, his last four losses have all gone the distance and he hasn’t been finished since 2016 when Yair Rodriguez knocked him out in the second round with a head kick.

Now 21-8-1 as a pro, Fili has nine wins by KO, three by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has four decision defeats. Eleven of his last 12 fights have made it past the first round. Fili hasn’t submitted anybody since 2012 and his last four finishes have come by KO. Eleven of his 12 career finishes have occurred in the first two rounds, with seven in round one and four in round two. All three of his early wins in the UFC have come by KO in six minutes or less, with the last two ending in round one.

In his last fight, Fili looked sensational as he dominated Daniel Pineda for the duration of the match. Fili looked moments away from getting a finish at multiple points in the first round, but Pineda was able to barely hang on to see a second round. Then, early in round two Fili accidentally caught Pineda in the eye as he charged forward. Credit to Pineda, he tried to keep fighting and pleaded with the doctor that he could see, despite not even being able to open his left eye. The fight was stopped 46 seconds into round two by the doctor, with Fili ahead in significant strikes 34-15, while landing his only takedown and stuffing all seven of Pineda's attempts. In the words of Pineda after the fight, “He was fucking me up, what can I say?”

Overall, Fili is a well rounded fighter with both solid wrestling and striking. He can also seamlessly work out of both the orthodox and southpaw stances, making him a tough guy to prepare for overall. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume (3.80 SSL/min) and has actually only led in significant strikes in 4 of his last 12 matches, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that he mixes in a good amount of wrestling as he averages 2.5 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Maybe it’s partially due to his jack-of-all-trades nature or his willingness to accept really tough matchups, but Fili perpetually flies under the radar in the Featherweight division and looks poised to make some noise as he appears to be in the prime of his career.

Joanderson Brito

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his recent UFC debut, Brito had won 10 straight fights prior to that. His last win came in a bizarre technical decision on DWCS in August 2021. Brito was warned earlier in that fight for extended fingers before stopping the fight in the third round with a bad eye poke. It didn’t appear intentional so instead of getting disqualified he was simply docked a point and the fight went to the score cards. Prior to the unfortunate ending, Brito banked the first two rounds as he controlled his opponent Diego Lopes on the mat for nearly eight minutes. Lopes came close to finishing an armbar submission in the first round and also had a guillotine attempt locked in later on as he continued to hunt for submissions off his back. Brito finished ahead in significant strikes 44-20 and in total strikes 59-37, while tacking on three takedowns on four attempts. Prior to that win on DWCS, Brito hadn’t competed in over 27 months dating back to a 44 second R1 KO win in the LFA in May 2019. We’ve seen Brito gas out in fights in the past and he looks the most dangerous in round one as he comes out of the gates ultra aggressive.

Now 12-3-1 as a pro, Brito has gone 11-1-1 in his last 13 fights after starting off his career at 1-2 back in 2013. Twelve of his 16 fights have ended early, with five wins by KO, five by submission, and just two decisions. He was finished twice in the first round in his first three pro fights, once by KO and another by submission, with his only other career loss coming by decision in his recent debut. While 75% of his career fights have ended early, six of his last seven have made it past the first round. Brito has primarily competed at 145 lb and 155 lb in the past, but did fight down at 135 lb early in his career. His last four fights have all been at 145 lb, while his three prior to that all took place at 155 lb. He’s jacked for the 145 lb division, and while he’s not very tall at just 5’8”, it still makes you wonder about his cardio and how tough the weight cut must be.

In his last fight, Brito started well, landing two takedowns early in the first round. However, Algeo reversed the position on the mat and seemed to take over from that point on as Brito began to slow down some. Brito failed to land a takedown in the later rounds, while Algeo was able to take him down in both rounds two and three on just two attempts. Algeo finished ahead in significant strikes 59-40 and in total strikes 112-46, while both fighters landed a pair of takedowns with roughly five minutes of control time. Brito continued to push forward throughout the match, but Algeo was able to land strikes from the outside and remain out of danger.

Overall, Brito is a blitzing wild man who throws violent strikes with fight-ending intentions and constantly looks for takedowns. He’ll look for both guillotine submissions and rear-naked chokes in addition to trying to finish opponents with haymakers. He’s dangerous in a variety of ways, but he lacks much finesse and simply tries to bull rush and overpower his opponents. That may have worked on the regional scene, but he’ll need to make some adjustments to find success against high level opponents at the UFC level. Brito uses so much energy early on in fights that it’s tougher for him to remain competitive late. Seven of his 10 finishes have occurred in the first round, with another coming 41 seconds into round two, and just one ending in over nine minutes.

Fight Prediction:

Fili will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

This is a really tough matchup for Brito as he makes just his second UFC appearance. Fili is an all around better fighter and has the advantage in wrestling, striking, cardio, and experience. With that said, Brito is always dangerous early in fights as he sells out for finishes. That aggression gets him into trouble when it doesn't result in an early win and we’d be surprised to see him get Fili out of there. We expect Brito to aggressively look for an early takedown and potentially look decent for the first few minutes of the fight. However, Fili should be able to take over from that point on and we like his chances to get a finish, likely in the second round, especially if Brito gasses out. Just keep in mind, 9 of Fili’s last 11 fights have gone the distance and Brito hasn’t been finished since 2015, so looking at past results and the odds, it’s still more likely Fili wins a decision than gets a finish.

Our favorite bet here is Fili’s ML at -240.

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DFS Implications:

Fili looked to be on his way to landing a finish and putting up a big score in his last fight, but then it was abruptly stopped early in the second round for an accidental eye poke and ruled a No Contest. It will be interesting to see how much of the field remembers how great Fili looked in that fight before the unfortunate ending. Prior to that matchup, 9 of Fili’s previous 10 fights went the distance, and he’s only topped 99 DraftKings points once since 2015. He’s shown the ability to score decently in decisions as he mixes in grappling, but it’s still unlikely to be enough to be useful in tournaments now that he checks in as the second most expensive fighter on the slate. Unless he puts on an absolutely dominant wrestling performance, he’ll need a finish here to crack tournament winning lineups. While he appeared moments away from landing a finish at multiple points in his last fight, Fili still only has one official early win since 2015, and now he faces an opponent who hasn’t been finished himself since 2015. With that said, Brito has shown cardio concerns in the past and he’s yet to face anyone at the UFC level with any finishing ability as this is just his second UFC fight. Fili looked phenomenal in his last fight for as long as it lasted and if he shows up in the same form for this one then we like his chances to get Brito out of there. With Romanov commanding so much ownership at the top end of the pricing scale, Fili makes for an interesting tournament pivot. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 33% chance to get a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Brito’s aggressive grappling-heavy fighting style is great for his DFS potential, but this is an even tougher matchup than his last one. Brito comes into every fight looking to run through his opponent, and while that may work against lower level opponents, it’s much harder to be successful with that approach against high-level competition. Fili is a solid wrestler, a much more refined striker, and has better cardio in this matchup, so Brito will likely be reliant on landing some sort of low percentage first round finish. The last person to finish Fili was Yair Rodriguez back in 2016 and FIli has looked solid since. After Brito was 44% owned as a -150 favorite in his UFC debut, albeit on just a 10-fight card, it will be interesting to see how popular he is here as the second cheapest fighter on the card. While there’s a slight chance that Brito could control Fili on the mat long enough that he could score well in decision, we’re skeptical that he has the cardio or the ability to pull that off and it’s more likely he’ll need a finish early on to be useful. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in the first round.

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Fight #2

Andrei Arlovski

37th UFC Fight (21-14, NC)

Arlovski stepped into this matchup on about three week’s notice after Justin Tafa dropped out of his scheduled fight against Jake Collier. Now on a three fight winning streak, Arlovski’s only loss in his last six fights came against Tom Aspinall in a February 2021 second round submission. While his last two losses have both come early, Arlovski’s last nine wins dating back to 2015 have all gone the distance.

Now 43 years old and holding a 33-20 career record, this will be Arlovski’s 54th pro fight—not even counting his two No Contests. He has 17 wins by KO, three by submission, and 13 decisions. He’s also been knocked out 11 times, submitted twice, and has seven decision defeats. Arlovski originally joined the UFC in 2000, but left the organization in 2008, before returning in 2014. He won his first four fights back in 2014 and 2015, including a pair of first round knockouts, but has since gone 8-10 plus a No Contest, which was originally a decision loss.

In his last win, Arlovski won a close split-decision against Jared Vanderaa. In a slower paced fight, Vanderaa actually led in significant strikes 70-64, in total strikes 102-71, and in control time 2:44 to zero. However, Arlovski may have been landing the more impactful shots, even if there weren’t really any big moments in the fight. One of the judges at least thought Vanderaa did enough to win, and it seemed like it could have gone either way, but neither fighter really set themselves apart and Arlovski once again snuck out a decision win.

Arlovski has made it to the judges in 13 of his last 15 fights, with the two exceptions being a pair of early losses to Tom Aspinall and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He has a way of drawing lower level opponents into slower paced matches that allow him to rely more on his experience than his athleticism. He doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to end fights early, but he makes it tougher on his opponents to get a finish either. In his last 31 fights over the course of the last decade, the only people to knock Arlovski out are Stipe Miocic (2016 R1), Alistair Overeem (2016 R2), Francis Ngannou (2017 R1), and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2019 R1). He was also submitted by Aspinall in his most recent loss. Arlovski has really struggled with the top guys in the division, but has been able to take his non-elite opponents to decisions and has quietly been on a bit of a run as he’s gone 5-1 in his last six fights. He’ll now face another lower level opponent.

Jake Collier

11th UFC Fight (5-5)

Continuing to trade wins and losses for his entire UFC career, Collier is now coming off his first early win since moving up to Heavyweight. Collier is now 2-2 since packing on an extra 60 lb, after he made a brief stop at Light Heavyweight where he went 1-1 in 2017. Prior to that, Collier had spent his career down at 185 lb, where he went 2-2 in his first four UFC fights. He’s shown he can still land a decent amount of volume even with the extra weight, as he landed 123 or more significant strikes in each of his last two decisions. Two of his last three wins have gone the distance, and he generally hasn’t been much of a finisher.

Now 13-6 as a pro, Collier has five wins by KO, four by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has two decision defeats. Eleven of Collier’s first 13 pro fights ended early, but since moving up in weight, four of his last six have gone the distance, while the other two haven’t made it to the midway mark of round one.

In his last fight, Collier surprisingly landed a submission win against UFC reject and DFS pariah Chase Sherman. Collier hadn’t submitted anybody since 2014 or knocked anybody out since 2016 leading up to that fight. Collier caught a Sherman kick 80 seconds into the first round and used it to land a takedown. He was easily able to mount a helpless Sherman. Then, as Sherman rolled over onto his stomach Collier immediately snatched up his neck. Strangely, Sherman never even attempted to fight the choke or go after Collier’s grip and instead just skipped right to tapping.

Collier’s best asset is his volume, and he hadn’t landed a takedown since 2016 leading up to the one that resulted in a submission win in his last fight. Three of his five UFC losses have come by knockout, although two of those were down at 185 lb and the other was against Tom Aspinall in Collier’s first fight at Heavyweight, which came following a nearly three year layoff. Collier has only finished 2 of his 10 UFC opponents and hasn’t looked especially dangerous overall, but did show he can finish fights on the mat in his last match.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’3” but Collier will have a 1” reach advantage and is 10 years younger than the 43-year-old Arlovski.

We expect this to play out as your typical Arlovski matchup, where Arlovski looks to slow the fight down and grind out a decision win. Collier has the ability to outland his way to a decision win, but he’ll need to be the one dictating the pace, which is easier said than done against Arlovski, who seems to have mastered the art of winning close, slower paced decisions. Arlovski has won the last six decisions he’s been to and we’ll keep riding him until he bucks, in what feels like a near identical spot to his last two matchups, so give us Arlovski by decisions once again here.

Our favorite bet here is “Arlovski/Collier FGTD” at -160.

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DFS Implications:

With his last nine wins all ending in decisions, the 43-year-old Arlovski has unsurprisingly struggled to score well in DFS as he averaged just 66 DraftKings points in those nine fights. The only time he topped 90 points during that stretch came in a career best 152 significant strikes landed against Ben Rothwell in a 2019 decision where Arlovski scored 94 points. It’s hard to see Arlovski returning value without a finish, and the last time he got an opponent out of there early was in 2015, and he’s fought 20 times since then. Arlovski also stepped into this fight on just three week’s notice, so he’s had less time to prepare than normal. The odds imply Arlovski has a 59% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Collier is coming off his first early win since 2016 when he was still fighting down at 185 lb. Even more surprising it came by submission after Collier hadn’t landed a takedown since 2016. That first round finish was good for 105 DraftKings points, but it came against a terrible Chase Sherman and now Collier gets a tougher test in Arlovski. Not that Arlovski is some sort of world beater these days, but he’s only been finished by elite competition, so it’s unlikely that Collier will be able to get him out of there. The more pertinent question is whether or not Collier can serve as a value play in a decision win. He landed a combined 253 significant strikes in his last two decisions, scoring 52 DraftKings points in a split decision loss to Carlos Felipe and 80 points in a decision win over Gian Villante. Had the decision gone his way against Felipe it would have scored 82 points and his third most recent decision win similarly scored 86 points. So he’s been fairly consistent when he’s gone the distance. If we only see 2-3 dogs win on the card then Collier would likely be able to sneak into winning lineups as a value play with a score like that, but if more underdogs win then there’s a good chance he would get left out. Arlovski is also good at slowing fights down and dictating the pace, so it’s more likely Collier underperforms than overperforms in this matchup. That likely leaves him dependent on either a finish or a slate where only a few underdogs win to be useful, and generally it’s best to avoid low-level fights when Arlovski is involved. The odds imply Collier has a 41% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.

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Fight #1

Rob Font

14th UFC Fight (9-4)

After winning four straight, Font lost a five-round decision to Jose Aldo in his most recent outing. Font has now gone the distance in five of his last six fights, with his last two going five full rounds. The only finish he’s landed since 2018 came against a broken Marlon Moraes, who’s been finished in the first two rounds in four straight matches and now retired.

Font is now 19-5 as a pro, with eight knockouts, four submissions, and seven decision wins. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted once, with his other four losses all going the distance. He’s never lost two fights in a row in his career and 11 of his 12 early wins have occurred in the first two rounds, with eight in round one and three in round two. Font started his pro career in 2011 at 155 lb, before dropping down to 145 lb in 2012 in his third pro fight. He didn’t move down to 135 lb until his UFC debut in 2014, but handled the cut like a pro and has successfully made weight in all 13 of his UFC fights, which have all taken place at 135 lb.

In his recent loss to Aldo, Font finished way ahead in terms of pure striking volume, as he outlanded Aldo 149-86 in significant strikes and 193-96 in total strikes, but Aldo was landing the more impactful shots and nearly had Font out of there at multiple points, as Aldo finished with two knockdowns and nearly nine minutes of control time, despite failing to land his only takedown.

Overall, Font has a really solid jab that he does a great job working behind. He landed a combined 325 significant strikes in his recent two-five round decisions (1-1), averaging 6.50 SSL/min in those 10 rounds of action, while absorbing just 149, 2.98 SSA/min in those fights. He’s only been outlanded twice in 13 UFC fights and in his career he averages 5.64 SSL/min and 3.55 SSA/min. He also averages 1.1 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with at least one in his last four fights to make it out of the first round. We’ve also seen Font get taken down himself a good amount, with his last six opponents landing 14 takedowns on 34 attempts against him (41%). The only opponent during that six fight stretch to fail to get him down was Aldo, who only had one attempt. While Font’s first five UFC wins all came early, three of his last four have come by decision as he’s faced tougher competition in the division.

This will be the fourth five-round fight of Font’s career and third in the UFC. His one fight scheduled for five rounds prior to joining the UFC ended in a first round KO win in 2013. His two UFC five round fights both went the distance in his last two matches (1-1), so overall he’s 2-1 in five round fights in his career.

UPDATE: Font missed weight by 2.5 lb.

Marlon Vera

19th UFC Fight (12-6)

Stepping into the first five-round fight of his career, Vera is on a two fight winning streak and has gone 8-2 in his last 10 fights. His only losses during that time came in a pair of close 29-28 decisions against Jose Aldo and Song Yadong. While three of Vera’s last five fights have gone the distance, 9 of his last 10 victories have come early.

A BJJ black belt, Vera is 18-7-1 as a pro, and has still never been finished, with all seven of his losses going the distance. Of his 18 wins, he has seven KOs, eight submissions, and three decisions. He’s gone just 2-6 in UFC fights that have required the judges, with 10 of his 12 UFC wins coming early. Among those 10 finishes, he has four submissions, with three occurring in round two and one in round one, and six KO/TKOs, with three ending in round three, two in round one, and one in round two. So overall, 30% of his UFC finishes have come by second round submission and another 30% have ended in third round KOs.

In his last fight, Vera knocked an aging Frankie Edgar out in the third round, and Edgar has now lost four of his last five fights with his last three losses ending in knockouts. Edgar started strong in the fight as he was able to control Vera on the mat for the majority of the first round, while also landing nearly twice as many strikes in the round. Edgar was again able to take Vera down early in round two, but that time Vera was able to return to his feet after a minute on his back, unlike in round one. At that point, the momentum began to turn in Vera’s favor as he backed Edgar against the cage and landed several clean shots. He continued to dictate the pace for the remainder of the fight until he eventually landed a late third round knockout with a front kick to Edgar’s chin.

Overall, Vera is a well rounded fighter who typically wins fights by finishing his opponents. While his finishes have been split pretty evenly between submissions and KOs looking at his entire career, his last three and four of his last five early wins have come by KO/TKO. Five of his last six fights have made it to the third round, but he was able to fight late third round knockouts in two of those. He can be a slow starter, often dropping the first round, which helps to explain why so many of his fights end in either late finishes or decision losses, as he frequently finds himself fighting from behind. Supporting that notion, he lost the first round on the judges’ score cards in his last four fights to make it to round two. Vera also absorbs more significant strikes than he lands, as he’s averaged 4.08 SSL/min and 4.27 SSA/min in his career.

This will be the first five-round fight of Vera’s career, so it’s harder to know how his cardio will look in the championship rounds as we’ve never seen him in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’8” but Font will have a 1” reach advantage. Vera is five years younger than the 34-year-old Font.

We expect Font to take an early striking lead behind his jab, while Vera should look to utilize kicks to make up for his slight reach disadvantage. Vera will likely find himself behind in the fight early on and playing catchup from the second round on. That will likely leave him dependent on landing a finish, and Font has only been finished once in his career, which ended in a first round 2017 guillotine submission against Pedro Munhoz. Both of these two have been very durable and that loss to Munhoz is the only early loss either of them have ever suffered. Because of that, it would be somewhat surprising to see this fight end early. We like Font to outland his way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “Font Decision” at +170.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Font has been a consistent DFS producer who’s averaged 108 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins, with all but one of those victories scoring at least 100 points. The only time he’s failed to score well in a win was a 2019 three-round decision victory over Ricky Simon where he was defending takedowns the whole time and scored just 73 points. He’s been rock solid in DFS outside of that fight and even in his recent five-round decision loss to Jose Aldo, Font still scored 77 DraftKings points. Despite getting hurt a few times in his last fight, he’s proven himself to be durable and the only early loss of his career came in a 2017 guillotine choke. Font has gone the full 25 minutes in two consecutive fights, and has proven he has the cardio to endure the championship rounds. He landed a combined 325 significant strikes in those matches, averaging 6.50 SSL/min. He won the first of those in a decision over Cody Garbrandt where he scored 114 DraftKings points and 138 points on FanDuel, but then most recently loss a decision to Jose Aldo, where Font still scored 77 DraftKings points and 95 points on FanDuel in a defeat. Had the decision gone his way it would have been good for 107 DraftKings points and 115 points on FanDuel. Font has shown he can score well even without a finish through sheer volume and occasional takedowns and Marlon Vera absorbs more significant strikes on average (4.27/min) than Aldo (3.74/min) or Garbrandt (4.22/min). So there’s no reason to think Font can’t once again put up a useful score in a decision win. It’s less likely that Font will hand Vera the first early loss of his career, but that’s not to say it can’t happen. Regardless, if Font wins this fight, we expect him to end up in winning tournament lineups and he’s a solid play in all formats. The odds imply Font has a 56% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.

If we told you Marlon Vera has landed finishes in 10 of his 12 UFC wins, you might be surprised to learn he’s only averaged 91 DraftKings points in those 12 victories. He’s never landed more than two takedowns in any of his 18 UFC fights, absorbs more significant strikes than he lands (4.27/SSA min vs. 4.08/SSL min), and generally starts slow in fights. He’s also landed just one knockdown in his last seven matches and failed to land a takedown in three of his last four fights, with just five total attempts during that four-fight stretch. He’s been largely reliant on landing mid to late round finishes to win fights that are either close or he’s trailing in and now he steps into the first five round fight of his entire career. That adds some uncertainty as to how his cardio will look in the championship rounds. Font does a good job of working behind his jab and only averages 3.55 SSA/min in his career. Therefore, we don’t expect Vera to put up a huge striking total and he appears reliant on a finish to score decently. He’s failed to top 98 DraftKings points in 9 of his 12 wins and depending on what the other dogs on the card do, it’s possible that Vera lands a finish and still doesn’t end up in winning lineups even at his cheaper price tag. With that said, it’s still more likely he would serve as a value play, but he’s certainly not a guy we would expect to lead the slate in scoring. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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