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Fighter Notes:
Louis Cosce
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Seven fights, seven wins, and seven R1 finishes—that’s Louis Cosce’s professional record. Cosce will now be making his UFC debut following a 72 second R1 KO on DWCS this past August, against Victor Reyna. Reyna came into that fight 11-4 as a pro, had never been knocked out, and notably had a decision win over Daniel Rodriguez in 2017. He also took Miguel Baeza to a decision in 2019. So while some of Cosce’s earlier opponents were a little suspect, the win over Reyna was impressive.
In a surreal turn of events, Louis Cosce and his older brother Orion both earned UFC contracts on the same night back in August on Week 3 of DWCS. Then they both had originally been scheduled to make their UFC debuts on this week’s slate. However, Orion was forced to withdraw due to an injury, leaving just Louis on the card.
Dealing with a lifetime of adversity, the brothers seem well equipped to deal with this setback. We don’t think his brother getting scratched front the card will have much of an impact on Louis’ performance.
Cosce talked about how his goal is to win fights as quickly as possible, to be aggressive and to cause damage to his opponents. Basically all the things that make for high DFS scores. His longest fight lasted four minutes and 38 seconds and four of his last five fights have ended in 79 seconds or less. Fade this guy at your own peril. One thing to consider is that he has the potential to be one of those guys that ends a fight too quickly, which could limit his ceiling as a potential DFS MVP candidate on FanDuel—but that’s always tough to predict.
Sasha Palatnikov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Palatnikov is coming off a September R1 KO win after having knee surgery earlier this year to repair a torn meniscus. His last two fights have now both ended in R1 KO’s, with Palatnikov getting dropped in his previous fight by Mounir Lazzez in one of Palatnikov’s only true tests to date. Ironically, Palatnikov was talking about Cosce’s padded record during a recent interview, maybe he should take a look at his own, as it’s only against marginally tougher opponents.
Palatnikov has just seven pro fights to his name, with just two of his five victories coming early. Those two R1 KO’s came against 1-0 Seok Hyun Ko and 3-4 Paulo Henrique. His other three wins all came in decisions. Both of his losses also came by KO, with a R2 2017 loss and then the recent 2019 defeat. In reality, both of these prospects have only been tested once or twice against legitimate competition and Cosce was the one who looked better in those fights.
Palatnikov will have a 3” height advantage in this fight and seems to be more than aware of that, as he called out Cosce as “small.” Mocking the height and record of such a violent opponent wouldn’t be our preferred strategy, but hey, to each their own.
Palatnikov has fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb, citing his opponents asking for catchweight fights as the reason he moved up at times. This fight will be at 170 lb and was made on just over 2 weeks notice.
This sets up as an exciting matchup between two up and coming prospects, both making their UFC debuts. It seems like the table is set for Cosce to explode onto the scene with a R1 KO of his taller opponent, but you never know how some of these young guys will react under the spotlight. Because we haven’t seen Cosce face much resistance, it’s hard to gauge his chin or gas tank. If Palatnikov can survive the initial onslaught from Cosce, it’s possible he surprises us. However, we’re fairly confident in what we’ve seen out of Cosce and like him to continue his streak of R1 finishes here. The oddsmakers and betters agree as Cosce opened the week as a -370 favorite and the line has only been bet up from there.
Kyle Daukaus
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Showing his toughness in his recent UFC debut and what was also his first career loss, Daukaus lost a decision against a tough Brendan Allen. Daukaus is known as a submission specialist but has underrated striking ability.
Kyle has been largely overshadowed by his Heavyweight older brother Chris, who burst onto the UFC scene with two R1 KO’s since August in his first two UFC fights. Kyle actually also fought at Heavyweight for a brief period of time as an amateur MMA fighter, before dropping down to Light Heavyweight and then eventually Middleweight. By the time he went pro he already had four fights at Middleweight.
Daukaus was 9-0 entering the UFC, with eight of those wins coming by submission and just one making it to the judges, which came on DWCS. Despite that fight ending in a decision, Daukaus dominated it to the extent that the judges scored it 30-25, 30-26 and 29-27. He came close to ending the fight with a submission multiple times, however, it wasn’t enough to get him a UFC contract. He went on to win two more fights outside of the UFC, both by R2 submissions, before finally getting the call up.
Dustin Stoltzfus
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a R1 “KO” win this past August on Week 2 of DWCS, Stoltzfus won the fight when his opponent's elbow dislocated in a freak injury as Stoltzfus slammed him on the mat. It seemed like a pretty close fight before the injury, so it’s hard to take too much away from the outcome. It was enough, however, to land Stoltzfus a spot in the UFC.
He comes in with an impressive 13-1 record and on a 10 fight winning streak. He finished his last five opponents early, with three of those ending in R1 (2 KO’s & 3 Submissions). He officially has a total of two career KO wins and five by submission. He also has five wins by decision and one by DQ. His only career loss came in a 2015 decision. He finished his second most recent opponent with the ever-elusive, but always popular Twister Submission, which seems to be trending primarily due to Bryce Mitchell’s recent success with it.
Stoltzfus started his pro MMA career at Light Heavyweight (205 lb) before permanently dropping down to Middleweight (185 lb) following his only career loss. He’s now 11-0 at Middleweight, including his last 10 fights.
Born in Pennsylvania, Stoltzfus has called Germany his home for the last eight years, and classifies himself as a German fighter. He was a training partner of the now retired Peter Sobotta and has also worked with other UFC fighters such as Sean Strickland.
This sets up for a good fight between two guys trying to make a name for themselves in the UFC. Daukaus opened the week as a -275 favorite and the line crept up from there. Neither of these two have ever been finished, so it will be interesting to see if that continues Saturday. Similar to the Gravely fight last week, this one has the potential to score well from takedowns, advances, reversals and submission attempts if it does go the distance. We think you’ll want exposure to both guys, and while Stoltzfus is one of the more interesting dogs on the slate, Daukaus likely still pulls out the win.
Alan Jouban
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Looking to return after a year and a half away from the UFC, the 38-year-old Jouban hasn't fought since losing a low-volume split decision to Dwight Grant in April 2019. Jouban has now dropped three of his last four fights, with only one win since beating Mike Perry in late 2016. Sharing a birthday with Shogun Rua (11/25/81), Jouban is certainly getting up there in years, especially for someone who gets punched in the face for a living.
Following the decision win over Perry—which was Perry’s first pro loss and also his first fight to go to decision—Jouban was wobbled and then submitted early in R2 by Gunnar Nelson in their 2017 match. Five months later, he returned to the ring against Niko Price and was KO’d less than two minutes into R1.
After suffering consecutive losses for the first time in his career, Jouban managed to bounce back with a R2 KO win over the corpse of Ben Saunders, who’s now been knocked out or submitted in the first two rounds in six of his last seven fights.
With a Muay Thai background, Jouban likes to throw lots of leg strikes from his southpaw stance. That style of distance fighting is not generally conducive to high-volume scraps. When you combine that with the fact that he’s landed just four takedowns in 12 UFC fights, while also only allowing six, it’s hard for his fights to score well without an early finish, barring an abnormal number of knockdowns (like in the fight against Muhammad).
With that said, he has scored 109 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four wins. Two of those were KO’s and the other was the highest volume fight of his career, where he also landed an abnormally high three knockdowns. While Jouban lost his last fight, even if the decision had gone his way he would have scored a pathetic 47 DraftKings points. Jouban was furious with the split decision results, so maybe that will drive him to push to end this one early and avoid leaving it up to the judges.
Jared Gooden
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Gooden was originally scheduled to make his UFC debut back on August 22nd against Dwight Grant, before he was forced to pull out due to injury. Fast forward three months later and Gooden will now be making his debut against Alan Jouban who coincidentally lost to Dwight Grant in his last fight. It’s worth noting that Gooden said the injury kept him out of the gym until late September.
Entering on a three fight winning streak, Gooden’s last five fights have all ended early (4-1), including three in R1. He’s 17-4 as a pro with finishes in 13 of his 17 wins. Seven of those came by KO and six by submission. He’s only been finished early once in his four losses, which came in a 2019 53 second R1 KO. He was absolutely dominated in that fight, in what was his most recent loss.
He normally fights at 170 lb but moved up to 185 lb for a three fight period in 2019-2020, until he dropped back to 170 lb for his last fight. His lone career KO loss came in his first fight at 185 lb against a noticeably bigger opponent in Bruno Oliveira. This upcoming fight will be at 170 lb where Gooden has never been finished early.
Known for talking trash and showboating at times, it will be interesting to see if Gooden’s antics carry over into the UFC and if they get him into trouble against opponents more equipped to deal with them. This should be a big step up for Gooden in terms of level of competition and a big step down for Jouban.
In a tale of two fighters we get a young 26-year-old Gooden making his UFC debut against an aging veteran nearing retirement in 38-year-old Alan Jouban. Gooden has had five fights since the last time Jouban stepped into the octagon. Gooden has won 3 of his last 4 fights against poor competition, while Jouban has lost 3 of his last 4 fights against mostly tough competition. Jouban is a southpaw Muay Thai leg striker, while Gooden is an Orthadox puncher.
We expect this fight to remain largely on the feet and think there’s a good chance it ends early, with both guys looking pretty hittable on tape. This is one of those matchups where we wish we could bet against both guys, but since we can’t, we’re taking the more experienced favorite in Jouban. As the second cheapest favorite on DraftKings and tied for the cheapest on FanDuel, it seems likely you’ll need him in your lineups if he does land the early finish in this fight. And if Gooden is able to land an early finish of his own, he would almost certainly make it into optimal lineups. However, if this fight does end up going to a decision, we don’t see either fighter scoring very well.
Daniel Rodriguez
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Legit nobody wants to fight this guy. After winning his February 2020 UFC debut against Tim Means with a R2 Standing Guillotine Choke Submission, Rodriguez was scheduled to fight Kevin Holland on May 30th. However, Holland withdrew shortly before the fight, conveniently claiming a shoulder injury and Gabe Green was thrown into the fire on short notice.
After easily defeating Green in an ultra high-volume decision, Rodriguez was next scheduled to fight Takashi Sato on August 22nd. However, Sato decided he would rather get Herpes (look it up he posted it on social media) than fight D-Rod and cleverly set it up so he wouldn’t be medically cleared the day before the fight. Dwight Grant had also lost his opponent that week, after both Gooden and then late replacement Born both withdrew. That left the two Welterweights in Grant and Rodriguez opponent-less so it made sense to pair them up against each other. Surely Grant wasn’t thrilled going from an easy opponent in newcomer Gooden, to an easier opponent in smaller newcomer Born, only to end up against Rodriguez on one day’s notice.
However, Grant did come dangerously close to finishing Rodriguez early in R1 with a knockdown followed by some extensive ground and pound in the first minute. It looked like the ref was an eye blink away from stopping the fight, but he let it go on (must have had money on it). Rodriguez was able to recover and quickly turn the tables, dropping Grant a couple of times in the next 90 seconds. The ref was much quicker to stop the fight as Grant took a beating, but Grant was clearly compromised by Rodriguez’s punches. Rodriguez scored in the high 120’s on DraftKings for the second straight fight and stretched his winning streak to nine as well as 3-0 in the UFC.
Most recently, Rodriguez had been scheduled to fight Bryan Barberena on November 11th, before Barberena decided he would rather have surgery then step into the ring with this monster. Rodriguez was unable to find a replacement on short notice (shocker), so he had to wait for a new opportunity. It only took a week for a slot to open up, as Dalby’s opponent withdrew, allowing Rodriguez to step in, with Dalby in no position to decline a late replacement.
It’s beginning to feel like the only way Rodriguez can get a fight is by catfishing his opponents into thinking they’re fighting a UFC newcomer, only to have D-Rod show up at weigh-ins.
All joking aside, Rodriguez has now scored 128, 126 and 105 DraftKings points in his three UFC fights and should be one of the most popular fighters on the slate. His high-volume striking and serious finishing potential give him a huge DFS ceiling and he also opened the week as the third largest favorite.
He does go against an opponent in Dalby who has never been KO’d, but neither had Grant until he fought Rodriguez. Dalby got dropped by a much less impressive fighter in Jesse Ronson in his last fight, before getting finished moments later with a Rear-Naked Choke.
"Both of these guys move forward, all offense, gonna be an awesome fight!"
-Dana White on Rodriguez vs. Dalby
Nicolas Dalby
7th UFC Fight (2-3-1)In his second stint in the UFC, Dalby is coming off the previously mentioned R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss to Jesse Ronson back in July. That was the first time anyone has ever finished Dalby early in his 22 pro fights.
After going 13-0 to start his career, Dalby originally joined the UFC back in 2015 and won a decision in his debut. However, after going 1-2-1 with four decisions in his first four fights the UFC decided to part ways. On a two fight losing streak, Dalby signed up with Cage Warriors just to lose a third straight decision in 2018. That’s when he was finally able to right the ship with three straight early wins via R2 Rear-Naked Choke, R3 KO and a R4 KO.
His last fight in Cage Warriors was stopped and ruled a No Contest due to an “Unsafe Surface” caused by the sheer amount of blood on the mat. The string of early finishes, combined with the notorious bloodbath match got him back on the UFC’s radar, who resigned Dalby in late 2019. Dalby won his first fight back in a decision over Alex Oliveira before losing most recently.
Dalby has not shown the ability to finish opponents at the UFC level, with both of his UFC wins coming in decisions. So while 10 of his career 18 wins have come early, his actual upside seems lower than what it appears on paper. Outside of the UFC, he has only three career R1 wins, with the last one coming in 2013.
Dalby had been scheduled to fight Orion Cosce (brother of Louis Cosce) who was recently forced to withdraw due to injury. This new matchup against Rodriguez was announced on November 12th, just nine days before the event. Rodriguez will have a 2” height advantage and is three years younger than the 36-year-old Dalby.
We like Rodriguez to finish Dalby early here, but we do think sooner or later Rodriguez is due for a let down spot.
Antonina Shevchenko
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Coming off a three round decision beatdown at the hands of Katlyn Chookagian, Shevchenko will look to bounce back from just her second career loss.
However, four of her eight career wins came against 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 and 0-1 opponents. So while the older of the two Shevchenko sisters has an 8-2 record, it’s less impressive than it appears on paper. She’s gone 2-2 in the UFC and has now lost two of her last three fights—including getting dominated in her last fight and losing to Roxanne Modafferi in a 2019 decision. Her only UFC fight to end early came in a 2019 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win. Her only other two career fights to end early were a R2 KO in her pro debut and another R2 KO on DWCS in 2018. Seven of her 10 career fights ended in decisions (5-2).
She originally went pro in 2002 and fought three times between then and 2005. Then she stepped away from MMA for 12 years until 2017 when she took it back up. She did compete in Muay Thai and K1 during her time away. She started her career at 135 lb, but moved down to 125 lb when she went on DWCS and that’s where she stayed.
Her only two takedowns in the UFC both came in her debut, and with a Muay Thai background she seems unlikely to want to take fights to the mat. With the lack of grappling stats or ability to score well on volume alone, Shevchenko is heavily reliant on a R1 finish to score well in DFS.
Shevchenko is used to having her sister in her corner, but now fighting on the same card for the first time we’re assuming she won’t have that luxury Saturday. However, we have not confirmed that.
Ariane Lipski
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Four months removed from her first early finish in the UFC, Lipski submitted Luana Carolina 88 seconds into R1 by Kneebar in their July matchup. Despite being known for her finishes prior to joining the UFC, four of her last five fights have now ended in decisions.
Lipski started her UFC career off against tough opponents, getting Joanne Calderwood in her debut, followed up by Molly McCann. She lost both of those fights in decisions before bouncing back with a decision win of her own in her third UFC fight, and then getting her UFC record back to .500 with the recent submission win.
Prior to joining the UFC, Lipski won nine straight fights with seven early finishes—including five in R1. Five of those seven wins came by KO and two by submission. She also had two R2 KO’s during that time. Three of her five losses came in her first five pro fights. She’s 11-2 in her last 13 fights. This will be Lipski’s first UFC fight where she was an underdog.
Both of these women seem most vulnerable on the ground. With just one takedown landed in her four UFC fights, Lipski seems unlikely to take the fight there. And Shevchenko only has two takedowns in the UFC, so she seems similarly unlikely to want to go to the ground—especially the way her last fight went with her getting dominated on the mat. Therefore, we see this playing out as a stand up striking battle unless someone gets dropped and the other jumps on top. Both fighters likely need a finish to score well, but it’s not impossible for Lipski to sneak into optimal lineups with a decision if we see another favorite heavy slate. We like Lipski to pull off the upset here—most likely in a decision but it’s possible she gets another R1 finish.
UPDATE: Lipski was the last fighter to weigh in (even after Perry), and while she just barely made weight, we didn’t think she looked great. With this red flag, we’re backing off our earlier prediction and changing our pick to Antonina Shevchenko.
Joaquin Buckley
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Fresh off one of the craziest knockouts you’ll ever see against promising prospect Impa Kasanganay, Buckley’s stock has never been higher—and neither has his DFS price. Normally that would make for a good fade spot, but we’ll get into that later.
Buckley fought at 170 lb until 2019, when he moved up to 185 lb. He’s now 3-1 at Middleweight (185 lb), with his only loss coming against Kevin Holland in his short notice UFC debut, which came just a week after Buckley’s previous fight. All three of those Middleweight wins came by KO, with one in R1 and two in R2.
At just 5’10”, Buckley’s biggest issue in the 185 lb weight class seems to be his 5’10” height, which was most glaring against the 6 '3” Kevin Holland. Buckley’s three recent wins all came against 5’11” opponents, whereas he now goes against a 6’2” fighter in Wright. In fairness to Buckley, he took the fight against Holland on very short notice and said he didn’t even come in with a gameplan. We’re not sure it would have helped, but it’s worth knowing the context.
Buckley can throw serious heat and puts together combinations nicely. Buckley’s last four and 10 of his 14 career fights have ended with KO’s. He won eight of those, including four in R1 and three in R2—although two of those R1 KO’s were in his first two pro fights against 1-4 and 1-0 opponents. Two of his three career losses have also come by KO—first in R1 of a 2016 fight and then most recently against Kevin Holland in R3 of his debut. His only other career loss was a 2018 decision.
Staying insanely busy in 2020, this will be Buckley’s fourth fight in the last four months. While his next opponent is almost as tall as Holland, we don’t think he’s anywhere close to as skilled a fighter.
"Both of these guys have flashy technique and neither like to leave it in the hands of the judges. That fight is going to be ridiculous!"
-Dana White on Buckley vs. Wright
Jordan Wright
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a weird/sudden R1 KO win coming from a doctor's stoppage in his UFC debut, against a non-UFC talent in Ike Villanueva, Jordan “The Beverly Hills Ninja” Wright will face a tougher task in his encore. To his credit, Wright fought up a weight class on short notice for his debut, going up from 185 lb to 205 lb. He has fought at least once previously at 205 lb, but not since 2017.
His only career loss, which was later overturned to a No Contest, came in a 2018 fight on DWCS against Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez in a R1 40 second KO. After a 19 month layoff and a switch in gyms, Wright bounced back with a R2 KO against an unimpressive Gabriel Checco. It's worth noting, that was the first time any of Wright's pro fights made it out of the first round.
Wright started his pro career off with nine straight wins, with all nine ending in R!. However, on closer investigation that impressive winning streak is padded by a sea of inexperienced (or experienced at losing) fighters. Here are the records of those nine opponents starting at the beginning of Wright's career: 0-0, 0-0, 0-5, 0-0, 0-21, 0-10, 0-0, 1-2, 7-3. With an unbelievably bad 1-38 combined record from his first eight opponents it's hard to take much from those early wins.
The first true test Wright was given came against Hernandez and it was immediately clear Wright was overmatched as he was viciously KO'd in just 40 seconds. It’s possible Wright’s height/length and unique style give Buckley trouble at closing distance, but we think he muscles his way in and overwhelms Wright.
From a DFS perspective, Wright presents a high ceiling for both himself and his opponent. He's a guy that tries to go for early finishes and also seems to lack the defense to protect himself from getting dropped. It's unlikely this fight goes the distance regardless of who wins. We think the only way Wright wins is by landing another perfect spinning kick or high knee. Given his height advantage in this fight, his knees are certainly in play..
We mentioned earlier about Buckley’s stock never being higher, but couldn’t the same argument be made for Wright? You would think both of these guys will be highly owned based on their recent R1 KO’s and the crazy -515 line on this fight ending early. So is the only real contrarian play to fade the fight entirely?
Because we have four other high priced, high owned fighters on the slate in Cosce, Rodriguez, Valentina Shevchenko and Figueiredo, we actually think Buckley will end up being much lower owned than he otherwise would be. DFS players are likely to scoff at Buckley’s DraftKings price jumping from $6,800 in his debut to $7,300 in his second fight, all the way up to $8,900 in this one. Especially when they can roster more established fighters at a similar price.
We think when forced to choose, most people will talk themselves into the value in Wright and pass on Buckley in favor of the other top plays. That potentially leaves Buckley as an underowned favorite with one of the highest R1 KO chances on the slate. It’s entirely possible this blows up in or faces, but we think it’s worth being a little over the field on. You’ll certainly want to hedge with some exposure to Wright in case things go sideways, but we think Buckley gets another early KO here.
Disclaimer: We were also betting heavily against Wright in his last fight and we all saw how that worked out.
UPDATE: Buckley weighed in well under the limit at just 182.5 lb. With Wright coming off a 205 lb fight and having a 4” height advantage, his size advantage could play a role here.
Brandon Moreno
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)Moreno joined the UFC on an eight fight winning streak back in 2016 and started off hot with a R1 Guillotine Submission over Louis Smolka in his debut. He followed that up with a decision win over Ryan Benoit before landing another submission in R2 of this third UFC fight. The quick 3-0 start in the UFC was enough to land him a main event spot against Sergio Pettis, which Moreno went on to lose in a decision.
A fantasy wasteland from a scoring perspective, no one has ever scored well against Brandon Moreno and he rarely scores well himself. Moreno is a patient submission specialist with low volume striking who’s never been finished early as a pro and has now seen his last five UFC fights end in decisions.
Following back to back decision losses against Sergeio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja in 2017 and 2018, Moreno had a one fight stint outside of the UFC in 2019 where he did land a R4 KO in the LFA. However, he followed that up with a split decision draw against Askar Askarov upon his return to the UFC a few months later.
Since the 2019 draw, Moreno won two more low scoring decisions against Kai Kara France and Jussier Formiga to secure his spot as a top contender in the Flyweight division. The win against Kai Kara France was Moreno’s highest volume fight of his career, yet he still scored just 76 DraftKings points, while landing 91 significant strikes. The match was fought entirely on the feet, so neither fighter accumulated any grappling stats.
That was a stark contrast to Moreno’s most recent fight, where he showcased his submission defense against the BJJ black belt in Formiga. We only saw 48 significant strikes landed combined between the two fighters in that match, with Moreno outlanding Formiga 33-15. Moreno successfully defended eight of Formiga’s nine takedown attempts in that match, but failed to land either of his own two attempts. He ended up scoring just 55 DraftKings points in a low volume decision win.
All five of Moreno’s career losses have come by decision, and while 12 of his 17 wins have come early, three of his last four UFC wins were decided by the judges. Only one of his last seven UFC fights ended early, which was a R2 submission win back in 2017 and the only time he’s scored over 100 DraftKings points (103 pts). Moreno requires an early finish to score well in DFS.
Still just 26 years old, Moreno is actually two years younger than Royval, despite having four times as many UFC fights to his name.
Brandon Royval
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Living up to his nickname, Brandon “Raw dog” Royval seems to care little about protecting himself as he lunges into action. In the midst of a meteoric rise that began with him making his UFC debut just this past May, Royval has shot up the rankings, all the way up to number six among Flyweights after just two UFC fights. Both of those fights were early wins over ranked opponents.
A BJJ blackbelt, Royval made his UFC short notice debut on just a week’s notice against longtime veteran Tim Elliot. In a high paced brawl, Royval was able to submit Elliot half way into the second round with an Arm-Triangle Choke. Showing just how high his expectations are of himself, in a post fight interview he lamented the fact that he didn’t perform better in the fight and was visibly upset with himself. Remember, this was a guy making his UFC debut on one week’s notice who just submitted a top 15 Flyweight who had eight years of UFC experience.
Royval stepped back into the octagon four months later against an even higher ranked opponent in Kai Kara France. Royval put on an even more impressive performance in an action packed dust up between two top 10 Flyweights. The high paced scrap lasted just a minute into the second round before Royval hopped on Kara France’s neck for an impressive Guillotine Choke against an opponent who had yet to be finished early inside of the UFC. That marked Royval’s fourth straight win by submission, all coming in the first two rounds.
Now 12-4 as a pro, 11 of Royval’s 12 wins have come early, with three KO’s and eight submissions. He’s never been KO’d or submitted himself and all four of his career losses were decided by the judges. He’s won seven of his last eight fights, with the only loss coming against Casey Kenney in an LFA title fight. Royval fought at 135 lb until 2016 when he dropped down to the 125 lb division. At 5’9”, he’s a decent size for the division. He’ll have a 2” height advantage in this fight.
While both Royval and Moreno have seen the majority of their career wins come by submission, Royval’s fighting style/pace is essentially the polar opposite of Moreno’s. Royval is constantly pushing forward with reckless abandonment and throwing everything he has at his opponents, while seamlessly stringing together flurries of strikes and submission attempts. Moreno on the other hand is content with counter striking and is in no rush to push the pace. It will be interesting to see if Royval forces Moreno to up his output or if Moreno’s methodical approach slows down Royval’s tempo. We’re expecting they’ll meet somewhere in the middle, resulting in a pace down fight for Royval and a pace up fight for Moreno. It’s possible that both of these guys respect the others’ submission skills to the extent that this turns into more of a standup striking match opposed to the grappling match that many might expect.
A win for Moreno would likely cement his position as the next contender to get a title shot, while a Royval victory could catapult him into the top five.
Neither of these two fighters have ever been finished early in their pro careers, and the top ranked Flyweight contender in Moreno is a slippery guy to try and submit. He should certainly put up more resistance than Royval’s past opponents, but we think Royval has a solid chance of getting it done.
With an unblemished UFC record, and two solid DFS scores in his early wins, we think Royval will be one of if not the most popular dogs on the slate. So there’s certainly an argument to be made that the leverage play is to fade him. However, that seems like a risky proposition with a limited number of live dogs on the card. We think Royval has a good chance to win this fight with either another exciting submission or in a lower volume decision.
Paul Craig
11th UFC Fight (5-4-1)After fighting to a draw almost exactly a year ago, these two will step back into the octagon to try and determine a winner. Both guys have fought once since the draw, and both came out with a win.
Craig is coming off a R1 Triangle Choke Submission win over Gadzhimurad Antigulov back in July. That is Craig’s third Triangle Choke Submission win in the UFC and seventh of his pro career. Rua has only been submitted three times in 38 pro fights—2013 R1 Guillotine Choke, 2007 R3 Rear-Naked Choke, and 2003 R3 Guillotine Choke.
Other than last year’s draw, all 17 of Craig’s other pro fights have ended early. He has 12 pro wins by submission and one by KO. All five of his UFC wins came by submission, with the last two coming in R1. The two before that didn’t come until R3, and weren’t enough to score well in DFS, tallying just 67 and 68 DraftKings points respectively. His other UFC submission win came in R2 of his UFC debut and was good for exactly 100 points on DraftKings. Although it’s a pretty limited sample size, those scores suggest a R1 or R2 finish for Craig would keep him in play for DFS lineups but a R3 finish would not.
One thing to consider with Craig is that because his submission of choice is a Triangle Choke off his back, he has the potential to score near the bare minimum in a R1 finish. We saw this in his last fight when the only stats he accumulated, outside of the R1 submission, were two measly significant strikes. He’ll either allow opponents to take him down or pull guard to get into position for a triangle—neither of those two techniques score points in DFS. It’s the same thing we’ve seen with guys ending fights early with Guillotine Chokes—no takedowns, no knockdowns, just straight to a submission.
All four of Craig’s pro losses came in the UFC and three of those were R1 KO’s—the fourth was a R3 Kimura against Jimmy Crute. However, Rua hasn't knocked anyone out in R1 since 2013.
Mauricio Rua
22nd UFC Fight (11-9-1)Coming off sort of a sad split decision win in the old man trilogy against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, six of Rua’s last seven fights made it to R3 with the one exception coming in a 2018 R1 KO loss to Anthony Smith—who’s a much better striker than Paul Craig.
As mentioned above, Rua hasn’t been submitted since 2013, however he’s been KO’d three times since then. Unfortunately, Craig’s lone career KO win came in 2014 against 1-2-1 (now 8-15-1) Dan Konecke. Craig did start their last match up with some decent striking, but Rua never appeared wobbled and we’re skeptical that Craig gets a KO here.
While Rua hasn’t finished an opponent before the third round since 2013, he did score exceptionally well in a 2017 R3 KO and decently in a 2018 R3 KO. The one exceptional score was propped up by a pair of knockdowns and a couple of takedowns, in addition to 94 significant strikes. If you compare how Rua looked on tape in that fight to how he’s looked in his last couple of fights, it’s amazing that was just three and a half years ago. It just goes to show that your mid-to-late 30’s come at you especially fast in the life of a UFC fighter.
It seems like Rua is pretty old and washed at this point in his career, but we think he has enough left to avoid getting submitted by Craig here. We’re not expecting any sort of high volume brawl and see it more likely playing out similar to the first time these two squared off—with sporadic bits of action sprinkled in between extended periods of inaction. Basically Craig coming out aggressive, Rua surviving, Craig attempting submissions from his back, Rua Surviving, Rua draped on top of Craig throwing occasional hammers, Craig surviving...repeated until the fight ends.
We think that stylistically Rua is not a great matchup for what Craig is looking to do, and this fight most likely ends in another low scoring decision bust. It wouldn’t be shocking if Rua got a R3 KO win, but more likely it goes to another irrelevant close decision.
We’ll leave things on one final note, on the off chance we get another slate where every other favorite wins, it’s possible Rua winning a low scoring decision would be enough for him to sneak into optimal DFS lineups.
Cynthia Calvillo
9th UFC Fight (6-1-1)Originally scheduled to fight Lauren Murphy back on October 24th, Calvillo was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID. Now rebooked four weeks later against Katlyn Chookagian, hopefully this doesn’t turn into another Ion Cutelaba situation with a lingering positive test.
Calvillo is coming off her first five round main event, where she beat Jessica Eye in a decision. She landed a career high 113 significant strikes, which isn’t really surprising since this was her first round right. That would equate to about 68 significant strikes in a three round fight, all things being equal. She also tacked on four takedowns and eight advances en route to an impressive 131 DraftKings points. We assume most people are smart enough to realize that was a five round fight and this next one is a three round fight, but surely some people glancing at her DraftKings statsheet will overlook that and inflate her ceiling.
After starting her UFC career in the 115 lb division, Calvillo moved up to 125 lb in her last fight after badly missing weight in her previous match against Marina Rodriguez, which ended in a draw. Her only career loss came in a 2017 decision against Carla Esparza. Her last three fights and five of her last six have now ended in decisions.
Calvillo has failed to score more than 87 DraftKings points in any of her three round fights that have made it out of the first round, but she has shown a fairly high ceiling in her two R1 submission wins. Her first UFC submission win came in her debut against Amanda Bobby Brundage, who went 2-4 with three R1 submission losses in the UFC before getting let go. Calvillo’s second R1 submission win came in 2018 against Poliana Botelho who’s 3-2 in the UFC.
It seems less likely that Calvillo will land a first round finish on Chookagian, who’s never been submitted in her 18 pro fights, but you never know. While Calvillo does have two KO wins on her record, those came in her first and third pro fights. We feel fine about completely writing off the R2 KO in her pro debut against a 1-1 (now 1-2) fighter, but in fairness to Calvillo the R3 KO in her third fight came against now UFC fighter Montana De La Rosa. That remains to this day the only time De La Rosa has been KO’d in her 17 pro fights.
Katlyn Chookagian
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Fresh off a weird late R1 “KO” loss against Jessica Andrade just a month ago, Andrade landed a hook to the body with 13 seconds left in the first round and Chookagian reacted as if she had just been shanked in the gut with a screwdriver.
Having now lost two of her last three fights, both by KO, the former decision machine now appears a bit more vulnerable. In fairness, the losses came against the current champ in Valentina Shevchenko and a pitbull in Jessica Andrade.
Following her decision win over Antonina Shevchenko back in May, Chookagian talked about getting “baby fever” so she may already have one foot out the door, especially now that Andrade has passed her in the Flyweight rankings. For what it’s worth, Chookagian shot down that notion in a recent interview and claims her comments have been overblown.
With all seven of her wins coming in decisions, she has yet to demonstrate a legitimate ceiling in DFS scoring. Her only pro fights to end early were a 2014 R2 KO win over Brigitte Narcise, who came in 0-1 and never fought again after, a 2015 R1 Armbar submission over 1-0 Melinda Fabian, and a 2016 R1 KO win over 7-3 Stephanie Bragayrac, who never fought again.
We think Calvillo will have success on the ground, but only to the extent that she can win an average scoring decision.
Mike Perry
14th UFC Fight (7-6)Bouncing back from consecutive losses with a decision win over Mickey Gall in his most recent fight, Perry has opted once again to have his girlfriend in his corner opposed to a coach. He’s also bringing in one of his non-fighter buddies to root him on.
Perry has now lost five of his last eight fights. Three of those came in decisions, but he was knocked out in R1 by Geoff Neal in 2019 and submitted in R1 against Cerrone in 2018. All three of his wins over that period came in decisions. Prior to those eight fights, Perry was 4-1 in the UFC with all four wins coming by KO (2 in R1, 1 in R2 & 1 in R3). Seven of his 13 UFC fights have now ended in decisions (3-4), including six of his last eight.
Perry was 9-0 as a pro (2-0 in the UFC) entering his 2016 fight against Alan Jouban, with all 9 wins coming by KO—including 6 in R1. He went on to lose that fight in a decision, and while he did bounce back from the loss with two KO wins, since those wins he’s only cleared 71 DraftKings points once in eight fights—which came in his last fight against a suspect Mickey Gall.
Perry has shown he’s a tough guy to finish, but with red flags strewn around him, this may be the time to bet against him.
Tim Means
25th UFC Fight (10-7, NC)Coming off a decent scoring decision win against Laureano Staropoli, who showed up overweight, Means’ four previous fights all ended early—including three in R1. Now 36 years old, Means is certainly getting to a point where we start worrying about his age. He’s also lost four of his last seven fights and hasn’t pieced together consecutive wins since 2016, as he’s alternated wins and losses over his last six fights. Based on the number of early finishes he’s involved in (win or lose), Means is generally a guy who’s fights we look to target in DFS.
He can finish fights in multiple ways, with 19 of his career wins coming by KO and five by submission. Only six of his 30 wins ended in decisions. Seven of his 12 losses also came early—two by KO and five by submission. The only person to knock him out since 2004, however, was Niki Price in R1 of their 2019 fight. And it’s worth pointing out that Perry has never submitted anybody.
We like Means to pull the upset in this one. Mike Perry is a complete mess and it’s surprising he’s still in the UFC—although maybe he won’t be for long.
UPDATE: Living his life off the rails, Perry sent out a flurry of Tweets discussing his tough weight cut Friday morning. He then weighed in 4.5 lb over the limit at 175.5 lb. This is a big red flag for us and boosts Means’ value.
Valentina Shevchenko
11th UFC Fight (8-2)Fighting in her 5th straight title fight and 6th of her career, Shevchenko is a violent striker who has only been beaten by Amanda Nunes in the UFC—who did beat her twice, both times by decision.
Shevchenko fought at 135 until she dropped down to the 125 lb division following her second loss to Amanda Nunes in their 2017 rematch. Following the switch, Shevchenko posted a huge 140 point DraftKings score in one of her few three round fights. Shevchenko landed 95 significant strikes in just under two rounds of action before submitting Priscila “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira at the end of the second round. Cachoeira is known for her high volume brawls so it’s not surprising that Shevchenko landed a career high number of significant strikes there, but the fact that she was able to do it in under 10 minutes of action is impressive. Those late-in-the-round early finishes are generally a recipe for DFS success, but are tough to predict.
Following up the title win with her first of four successful title defenses, Shevchenko went the distance with Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her next fight in a slower paced match that still scored pretty well—largely due to takedowns and advances. She followed up that win with a R2 KO against Jessica Eye, where we curiously only saw 10 total significant strikes landed between the two women. The finish was still enough to score over 100 points on DraftKings with a knockdown, two takedowns and three advances tacked onto the R2 win.
Shevchenko’s next low volume fight against Liz Carmouche is likely to be what really scares a lot of people off her. A rematch of their pre-UFC 2010 fight, Carmouche is the only other human besides Nunes to beat Shevchenko. Getting caught with an upkick that opened her up back in their 2010 fight, Shevchenko was forced out of the match due to a R2 doctor’s stoppage. That could have factored into Shevchenko being a little tentative in the rematch. When you combine that with Carmouche’s quick footwork and similar counter punching fighting style, the low score kind of makes sense. Shevchenko won the fight in a low scoring decision and seemed content in simply controlling the fight.
She followed up that win with an early R3 KO of Katlyn Chookagian in her most recent fight. As five round fights go from a DFS scoring perspective, an early R3 finish is literally the worst possible thing that could happen, especially on DraftKings, because of the way the round bonuses are structured. Early and late in the round finishes are just part of variance and just as it worked in her favor in the 140 point earlier performance, it worked against her in this disappointing 86 point output. We think she’s due for positive regression in the scoring department and we should look to capitalize on the lower ownership driven largely by her two poor scoring performances.
After showing a lower floor than Rodriguez and Figueiredo in her past two fights, we think people will feel more comfortable fading Shevchenko than those other two options, despite her being far and away the biggest favorite on the slate.
Helping to bolster her scoring potential, Shevchenko has landed at least one takedown in all five of her fights since dropping down to Flyweight, and at least two in four of the five. Her counter striking style does generally keep her striking volume in check, but if she can get a dominating position we’ve seen her rack up punches in bunches.
All of her DraftKings scores when she was fighting at 135 lb were terrible, and those low scores are also likely to scare some people off her. One random piece of information to note, Shevchenko has alternated finishes and decisions over her last 8 fights, and is now coming off a finish. This is really more descriptive than predictive, but figured we would point it out anyways. Shevchenko’s last four fights, and eight of her last nine have been 5 rounders. She hasn’t finished any of her UFC opponents in the first round and her last R1 win came all the way back in 2013—two years before she joined the UFC. If that trend continues, you’re hoping for high volume striking and either a R2 finish or a decision for her to score well in DFS.
Jennifer Maia
6th UFC Fight (3-2)After mugging Joanne Calderwood and stealing her title shot with a surprise R1 Armbar Submission back in August, Maia seems to be walking straight into an ambush herself.
Maia has shown herself to be a fairly durable fighter over her career, having been finished just twice in 24 pro fights—once in 2011 by a R2 Armbar and then again in 2012 by a 10 second R1 KO. She has now gone 17 straight fights without being finished. Prior to her recent submission win, she saw eight straight decisions—winning six of them.
We don’t think Maia poses an actual threat to win this fight, so we’re primarily focused on the matchup she presents for Shevchenko’s scoring potential. Chookagian and Davis landed 73 and 72 significant strikes respectively on Maia, which is the equivalent to roughly 120 significant strikes over the course of a five round fight. If Shevchenko could keep that pace, while adding on some grappling stats, she could score well over 100 DraftKings points in a decision. Maia has a pretty decent 70% takedown defense, but she’s also been taken down at least once in three of her five fights and has never faced anyone like Shevchenko. We’re not overly concerned about it.
We don’t think this is necessarily a pace up matchup, but it also isn’t one we’re worried about being super slow. We expect Shevchenko to win this fight easily. An early finish is likely but we wouldn’t be shocked to see it go to a decision.
Deiveson Figueiredo
10th UFC Fight (8-1)Figueiredo won the vacant Flyweight belt against Joseph Benavidez back in July, after beating him for the second straight time with another early finish—and that time he made weight and was actually eligible for the belt. After knocking Benavidez out in R2 of their first match, Figueiredo put an exclamation point on it with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission in the most recent fight.
Figueiredo has now won four fights in a row, submitting Tim Elliot in R1 of his prior fight and defeating a tough Alexandre Pantoja in a decision before that. Now 19-1 as a pro and 8-1 in the UFC, Figueiredo’s only career loss came in a 2019 three round decision against Jussier Formiga.
Six of Figueiredo’s eight UFC wins have come early, four by KO and two by submission—all four of the KO’s came in R2, while both submissions came in R1. Looking at his entire pro career, 16 of his 19 career wins came early with nine KO's and seven submissions. Ten of those early finishes came in R1. Figueiredo has shown a long history of submitting opponents in R1 and knocking them out in R2, so both of those are interesting prop bets at +1000 and +750 respectively.
This will be Figueiredo’s third straight five round fight, although he didn’t make it out of the first two rounds in the last two. In what will be his first Flyweight title defense, Figueiredo gets what looks like a fairly easy matchup in Alex Perez.
Alex Perez
8th UFC Fight (6-1)Now getting a title shot after consecutive R1 wins, including a KO against Jussier Formiga and an Arm-Triangle Submission against Jordan Espinosa, Perez has now won three straight since getting KO’d in R1 of a 2018 fight against Joseph Benavidez. He’s also won 11 of his last 12 fights. Five of his seven UFC fights have ended early, including four in R1—all four of those came in his last five fights. He has two KO wins, two submission wins and two decision wins in the UFC. He also landed a R1 submission win on DWCS to get his shot in the UFC back in 2017.
Despite all the recent early finishes, half of his 24 career wins came in decisions, while 4 of his 5 career losses came early, all in R1 with 1 KO and 3 submissions.
While some people may look at how Figueiredo’s one loss came against Jussier Formiga, a guy who Perez KO'd in R1 of his last fight, others will point to how Benavidez KO’d Perez in R1 (really twice if you watch the fight), and then Figueiredo finished Benavidez in back to back fights. Both takes are a little anecdotal, but the Benavidez comparison seems more telling. Benavidez manhandled Perez and then Figueiredo made short work of Benavidez not once, but twice.
But shared opponents aside, Figueiredo is a calculated killer. The BJJ black belt can knock you out on the feet or put you to sleep on the ground. He stalks his prey with controlled patience like a python waiting to strike. Perez is a decent fighter but this feels like a gazelle wandering into a lion’s den.
We like Figueiredo to win this in the first two rounds. That’s not exactly a hot take. More importantly will be to determine whether or not he outscores the other top priced fighters, which is a tougher question to answer. We saw Figueiredo put up a massive 134 point DraftKings performance in his last fight under ideal circumstances—a late R1 finish which allowed him to rack up 35 significant strikes., two knockdowns and two advances. Had he finished the fight sooner, which he almost did, his score may have looked more like his 94 point performance against Elliot. Had the fight leaked into R2, it may have looked similar to his 98 point performance in his first match against Benavidez. So it’s really a fine line.
Figueiredo has shown he can put up big scores even in R2 KO’s by filling up the stat sheet with strikes, knockdowns, takedowns, and advances, but there’s obviously an element of luck with how the fight shakes out. There’s no guarantee an early finish here will automatically propel Figueiredo into the optimal lineup. Because of that, we recommend mixing in the various top plays to increase your odds of landing on the optimal combination.
Because we expect this fight to end early, it greatly reduces the chances that we see a high volume five round fight where the winner is a lock to be a top scorer based on the sheer volume of fighting two additional rounds. From a DFS perspective, this can almost be treated as though it’s just another three round fight with a big favorite who’s likely to end it early. With that said, Figueiredo has one of the highest DFS floors on the slate, along with a huge ceiling and we think he’s a great play on both sites. And don’t forget about the +1000 R1 submission and +750 R2 KO lines.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma