Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.
None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Cody Brundage
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Apparently on a mission to rack up losses as quickly as possible, Brundage is stepping in on short notice here after getting submitted by Rodolfo Vieira just eight weeks ago and knocked out by Michal Oleksiejczuk just six months ago. Brundage started strong in his last fight, dropping Vieira in the first round, but was unable to get him out of there and Vieira locked up a submission early in round two after a failed guillotine attempt from Brundage. His last four fights all ended in under seven minutes (2-2), with three ending in round one, after he lost a wrestling-heavy decision to Nick Maximov in his 2021 UFC debut. Brundage narrowly bounced back from that decision loss with a fortunate first round submission win over Dalcha Lungiambula, who was absolutely mauling Brundage before getting caught in a hail-mary guillotine. Brundage then landed a first round knockout against Tresean Gore, who for what it’s worth claimed to have a brutal weight cut leading up to the fight.
Now 8-4 as a pro, Brundage has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and one decision victory. Five of his seven finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one in round two and another in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Both of his knockout losses occurred in round one, while his submission defeat came in round two. One of those KO losses came on DWCS in 2020 against William Knight. That fight took place at 205 lb and Brundage has fought anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb throughout his career, but his last six fights have all been at 185 lb and he claims he could even make 170 lb if he really needed to (Spoiler: He may need to soon).
Overall, Brundage is a former college wrestler, who has been working on improving his striking and has decent power. He’s got a pretty low fight IQ and makes a lot of poor choices inside of the Octagon. However, he’s still relatively early in his career with just 12 pro fights to his name and he only turned pro in 2019. Brundage is married to former UFC fighter Amanda Bobby Brundage who went 2-4 with the organization before being released, and best friends with Collin Anglin, who went 0-2 in the UFC and then lost two more after getting cut. Between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Brundage has landed six takedowns on 13 attempts (46.2% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents 6 times on 23 attempts (73.9% defense). Despite training at altitude at Factory X, his cardio has appeared suspect, which isn’t ideal as he steps into this fight on short notice.
Sedriques Dumas
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Dumas got submitted in the second round of his recent UFC debut against Josh Fremd just three months ago. Dumas was never able to get anything going in the fight, as Fremd had him hurt on the feet and was also able to take him down twice on two attempts and easily control him on the mat and eventually work his way to a guillotine finish midway through round two. Dumas had originally been scheduled to face Abu Azaitar there, but Azaitar dropped out and Fremd was announced as the replacement 16 days out, a week longer to prepare than Brundage in this next matchup. Prior to that loss, Dumas won his first seven fights after turning pro in September 2020 and punched his ticket to the UFC with a 47 second first round submission win on DWCS. Just keep in mind, he hadn’t been facing much in the way of competition. His last win came against a young one-dimensional striker, after he previously won a decision over an opponent who had spent most of his career at 170 lb, is now 1-4 at 185 lb, and has losses to Cameron VanCamp and Jared Gooden on his record. Prior to that decision win, Dumas had never been past the second round.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Dumas has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision win. Four of his finishes occurred in the first round, with the last three of those ending in 90 seconds or less. His other two early wins both ended in round two. Just keep in mind, he’s fought a very low level of competition, with his first three opponents all having losing records and his next two each coming in just 1-0 in their respective careers. Then he took on a struggling undersized opponent, leading up to his win on DWCS. While he locked up a submission win on DWCS, four of his last five finishes have come by KO/TKO. His lone loss was his recent second round submission in his debut.
Overall, Dumas has a Dutch Kickboxing striking style, and is also a BJJ purple belt who looks to mix in grappling, but looked terrible off his back in his last fight. He has dangerous kicks that he uses to attack his opponents at all levels, and has both head kick and leg kick KO/TKOs on his record. We haven’t been impressed by what we’ve seen from him, and with it being just three months since he last fought, he hasn’t had much time to make improvements. While his debut couldn’t have gone much worse for him, he’ll get a chance to redeem himself here in front of his home Florida crowd.
Fight Prediction:
Dumas will have a 2” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
Brundage’s teammate, Josh Fremd, just submitted Dumas, which is likely what gave Brundage the confidence to step into this matchup on short notice. This will be the second straight time Factory X has prepared for Dumas, which should be especially beneficial in a short notice fight where preparation time is so limited. Brundage is the superior wrestler in this matchup and we fully expect he’ll be looking to get the fight to the ground almost immediately. He’s shown the ability to lock up submissions on the mat and it could be a quick fight if Dumas doesn’t show improved submission defense. One wildcard will be Brundage’s cardio after taking this fight on short notice, so we could see him slow down if he’s unable to get Dumas out of there early. However, we’d be surprised if it lasted long enough for Brundage to gas out and we like him to find a finish in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Brundage KO” at +470.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Brundage has been a boom or bust DFS option, with DraftKings scores of 115 and 98 in his two wins, while failing to top 24 points in his three losses. He’s been finished in the first two rounds in each of his last two fights and is now stepping into this matchup on short notice. Working in his favor, his teammate, Josh Fremd, also just fought Dumas on pretty short notice and landed a second round submission. That has to be a driving factor for why Brundage was willing to step in with little time to prepare in a spot where he desperately needs a win. Dumas looked terrible on the ground in his last fight and showed no ability to defend a takedown, and Brundage is a wrestler who’s always looking to get fights to the mat. So this sets up perfectly for Brundage to find wrestling success and he’ll have a really good shot at locking up a first round finish. Dumas’ striking defense also looked suspect in his recent debut, so Brundage could knock him out on the feet and has multiple paths to landing an early finish. There is some concern that Brundage could gas out if he doesn't put Dumas away early, and his somewhat suspect cardio will just be exacerbated by him filling in on short notice. And let’s also remember we’re talking about Cody Brundage here, not some world beater. He was moments away from getting finished in one of his two UFC wins and could easily be 1-4 in the UFC right now. Nevertheless, this looks like a great matchup for him to find success and we like his chances of putting up a big score. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Dumas looked absolutely terrible in his recent UFC debut after coming into the UFC with an undefeated record and some hype around him. Especially concerning for this next matchup, Dumas showed no ability to defend a takedown in that last fight and looked lost off his back. That’s why Brundage is a decent sized favorite here despite stepping in on short notice and coming off two early losses. In fairness to Dumas, perhaps making his UFC debut got the better of him and he was also facing a step up in competition from his past opponents. He certainly can’t look much worse here and he has the potential to look much better. He’ll now be fighting in front of his home crowd and his stock is at an all time low, despite the fact he’s taking on an opponent who’s been finished in back-to-back fights and is filling in on short notice. This has a lot of the makings for a great buy-low tournament spot, just keep in mind we’re fully expecting Brundage to have his way with Dumas and finish him on the mat. But if Dumas can survive for the first half of the fight, maybe Brundage gasses out and Dumas can put him away late, only time will tell. The odds imply Dumas has a 39% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Jamall Emmers
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Fresh off a decision win over an undefeated debuting fighter in Khusein Askhabov, Emmers defended all six of the takedown attempts against him in that match, while landing one takedown of his own and doubling Askhabov up in significant strikes 62-30. Leading up to that fight, Askhabov hadn’t competed in almost three years, hadn’t seen the second round since 2018, and hadn’t seen round three since 2016. That showed in his cardio and he slowed down considerably in the back half of the fight. Emmers also slowed down in the third round and hadn’t competed in 18 months after injuring his knee in an August 2021 first round heel hook submission loss to Pat Sabatini. That loss came a year after Emmers notched his first UFC win, which came in a decision over short notice replacement Vince Cachero who was fighting up a weight class. Five months prior to that win, Emmers lost a close split decision in his March 2020 UFC debut against Giga Chikadze. Emmers had been scheduled to fight Chas Skelly following the win over Cachero, but just before he was set to walk out for the match he was forced to withdraw due to back spasms that he was suffering backstage. Emmers originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS, but got knocked out in the second round by a southpaw in Julian Erosa and was forced to return to the regional scene and work his way back up. Emmers also has a 2016 R5 TKO loss to Thiago Moises on his record (at 155 lb), as well as a 2017 decision victory over Cory Sandhagen, and a 2013 decision win over Alexander Hernandez.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Emmers has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and nine decision victories. Of his 10 finishes, four came in round one, three ended in round two, and three came in round three. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted two more times, and has two decision losses. Three of his four early losses occurred in the later rounds, with two ending in round two.
Overall, Emmers is a well-rounded fighter with a wrestling background, and while he’s pretty decent everywhere, he isn’t really exceptional anywhere. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed 8 of his 16 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while defending all 10 of the attempts against him (100% defense). Despite three of his four UFC fights going the distance, the only time Emmers has topped 62 significant strikes landed was when he landed 103 against Vince Cachero, who was making his UFC debut on short notice up a weight class and finished 0-2 in the UFC. We wonder about Emmers’ fight IQ at times, as he’s often content with engaging opponents where they’re the strongest, as we saw him willing to strike against Chikadze and willing to play around on the mat against Sabatini. That resulted in him losing both of those fights, while failing to use his well-roundedness to attack his opponents’ weaknesses. After his last match, Emmers asked to fight in front of his home crowd in Miami next. While he didn’t quite get that wish granted, he will be fighting on the other end of the state up in Jacksonville and should still have the Florida crowd behind him. All four of his previous UFC fights were in Vegas.
Update: Emmers initially missed weight by 1 lb!
Jack Jenkins
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a decision win in his UFC debut that took place in front of his home Australian crowd, Jenkins has won eight straight fights since suffering back-to-back submission losses in 2017 and 2018. Jenkins did a good job of mixing in both his striking and his grappling in his recent win, as he finished ahead 82-50 in significant strikes and landed four takedowns with six minutes of control time, however, he also got taken down once himself and reversed twice on the mat. It also looked like Jenkins could have found a late knockout if he just kept the fight standing, but instead kept taking the fight to the mat where Shainis was the most comfortable. Prior to that win, Jenkins punched his ticket to the UFC with a third round TKO win on DWCS, where Jenkins relied largely on his wrestling as he landed four takedowns with over 11 minutes of control time before finding the late finish with 30 seconds remaining in the fight. Jenkins won the Eternal MMA Featherweight belt back in 2020 and successfully defended it twice, in addition to winning the Rogue MMA Featherweight belt. His last title defense came in an ultra high-volume five-round decision just before going on DWCS, where Jenkins couldn’t miss with anything he threw, but never attempted to get the fight to the mat. Five of his last seven wins have come early, but his last six fights all made it out of the first round.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Jenkins has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. He has three first round finishes, three in round two, one in round three, and another in round four. However, his last four and five of his last six finishes came in the later rounds, with his last three early wins all ending in TKOs. Both of his career losses ended in submissions in his first five pro fights.
Overall, Jenkins is a well-rounded Australian fighter with a rugby background who has spent a little time training with Alexander Volkanovski. He throws bone-shattering leg kicks and apparently has broken numerous opponents’ legs with them. He also does a good job of mixing in his wrestling, landing four takedowns in each of his last two fights on a total of 11 attempts (72.7% accuracy), while those two opponents only got him down once on five attempts (80% defense). He’s shown the ability to put up big striking totals on the Australian regional scene, although failed to top 82 significant strikes landed in his UFC debut and DWCS match, where he averaged 4.54 SSL/min. He said he went out and trained in Thailand some as he waited to get the call for this next fight, which finally came with five weeks to prepare. He also predicted he’d knock Emmers out with a left hook or left kick in the opening five minutes, but take that for what it’s worth.
Fight Prediction:
Emmers will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while Jenkins is three years younger than the 33-year-old Emmers.
Emmers was presumably fighting for his job at 1-2 going into his last fight and earned himself a second contract with a decision win over a debuting opponent who gassed out midway through the fight. Despite Askhabov having nothing left late in that fight, Emmers was still unable to put him away, which has been a theme for Emmers in the UFC as he was also unable to finish a much smaller Vince Cachero. Both of these two are well-rounded and can compete both on the feet or mat, and Emmers’ 100% takedown defense could force it into more of a striking battle. While Emmers will have a sizable reach advantage, we expect Jenkins’ calf kicks to play a major factor and could very well be the great equalizer. Jenkins has overall looked like the more dangerous of the two and the last time Emmers finished anybody was in the third round of a 2020 LFA match. Emmers has been finished in four of his last five losses and has been knocked out by both Julian Erosa and Thiago Moises prior to joining the UFC. So it won’t be surprising at all to see Jenkins finish him here, more likely in the later rounds. With that said, Jenkins has gone the distance in two of his last three fights, with the other ending 30 seconds before the final bell. And Emmers has also gone to the judges in three of his four UFC fights, so it’s hard to feel overly confident in this one ending early. Regardless, we like Jenkins to pull off the upset and we’ll say he gets it done with a late round TKO after compromising the lead leg of Emmers with calf kicks.
Our favorite bet here is Jenkins’ ML at +170.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Emmers has averaged 91 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, with both of those fights going the distance. He only scored 72 points in his most recent victory, after putting up 109 DraftKings points in his previous decision win. Just keep in mind, that came against a very suspect Vince Cachero, who was making his short notice UFC debut up a weight class and finished 0-2 with the organization. That high-scoring win was all the way back in August 2020, so it’s been a while since Emmers was relevant in DFS. The last time Emmers finished anybody was in a 2020 LFA fight just before he made his UFC debut and has yet to show any finishing ability at the UFC level. Now he’s facing a tough opponent who’s been submitted twice but never knocked out, so it will be interesting to see if Emmers looks to grapple or if he’s content with keeping the fight standing. We don’t see Emmers dominating this fight to the extent that he’ll score well in a decision win and he likely needs a finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 65% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Jenkins scored 97 DraftKings points and 93 points on FanDuel in his recent UFC debut decision win, after landing a third round TKO on DWCS that would have been good for 102 DraftKings points and 75 points on FanDuel, as he racked up four takedowns and over 11 minutes of control time. He’s shown the ability to dominate fights both on the mat and the feet, which will be beneficial in this matchup against the 100% takedown defense of Jamall Emmers. We also won’t be at all surprised to see Emmers get taken down for the first time in the UFC here. While this is clearly a step up in competition for Jenkins and his debut wasn’t perfect, we’re still excited about his outlook moving forward and he does a good job of varying his attacks. One of his most dangerous weapons is his calf kick, which he could use to slow Emmers down or even finish him. At Jenkins’ cheap price tag, even in a decision win he should have a really good shot at cracking tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 35% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Trevor Peek
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Fresh off a knockout win in the final second of round one in his recent UFC debut, Peek has knocked out eight straight opponents after his 2020 pro debut ended in a No Contest. Peek got taken down four times by Erick Gonzalez in that last fight, but Gonzalez did a poor job of holding positions, which allowed Peek to return to his feet each time. Peek then unloaded on Gonzalez late in the round, knocking him down twice before landing the buzzer beater knockout. That matchup was put together on short notice after Peek and Gonzalez both had their original opponents drop out. Prior to that win, Peek landed a second round TKO on DWCS, where he again got taken down four times in the first round. Peek also got hurt midway through the first round and nearly knocked out, but was narrowly able to survive. His opponent, Malik Lewis, completely gassed out in round two and Peek was able to outlast him and finish him with ground and pound. Just a month before going on DWCS, Peek knocked out a fragile Khama Worthy late in the first round.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Peek has six first round KO/TKO wins and two in round two. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than eight minutes and two seconds. He hasn’t faced much in the way of competition, and we expect him to get exposed once he does. Peek has fought between 155 lb and 180 lb in his career, but his last three fights have all been at 155 lb and it appears that’s where he’ll stay moving forward.
Overall, Peek is an aggressive brawler who comes into every fight looking to knock opponents out, whether it be on the feet or through ground and pound on the mat. He’s averaging a blistering 8.33 SSL/min and 5.71 SSA/min. He’ll also look for occasional takedowns, but hasn’t shown any sort of submission game and is just looking to beat opponents up on the ground. On DWCS, he showed the ability to get rocked and recover, but other than that he’s never really faced any adversity in his career. While some may point to the Khama Worthy victory as a notable win on his record, just keep in mind Worthy has been knocked out nine times in his career and has four R1 KO losses just in his last seven fights. Considering the longest fight of Peek’s career ended midway through the second round, his cardio still remains somewhat of a question mark, but he certainly doesn’t pace himself for 15 minutes. Between his DWCS appearance and his recent UFC debut, Peek landed one of his three takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 14 attempts (42.9% defense). Peek is definitely the type of fighter that feeds off a crowd, and after his last two fights were both at the Apex, now he’ll get to fight in front of a packed arena for the first time in the UFC.
Chepe Mariscal
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut up a weight class on just a week and a half’s notice, Mariscal has already fought more UFC fighters than most of the guys currently on the roster. Some of the names he’s already faced include Sean Soriano, Steve Garcia, Joanderson Brito, Youssef Zalal, Pat Sabatini, Carl Deaton, Bryce Mitchell, and Gregor Gillespie. He went just 2-5 plus a No Contest in those fights and arguably could have lost both of those wins as they came in very close decisions against Sabatini and Zalal, but he at least has a ton of experience fighting UFC level competition. Mariscal won a close, grappling-heavy split decision over Pat Sabatini back in 2018, showing that he could hang on the mat, but also somehow got held on his back for three rounds by an absolutely terrible grappler in Sean Soriano. The only explanation we can come up with is that Mariscal was not the same fighter after getting violently knocked out by Joanderson Brito in 2019, where the referee should have been sent to jail after allowing him to nearly get knocked out after an early low blow and then get his lifeless body pounded into the mat before the fight was finally stopped. The aftermath was a scary scene as Mariscal tried to fight off his corner team for what felt like minutes after he finally woke up and literally had to be carried out of the cage as he continued to struggle. That loss began a stretch where he dropped three out of four fights and likely took years off his life. He’s since gotten back on track against some easier competition, but it remains to be seen if Mariscal will ever be the same fighter he was before that assault.
Now 13-6 as a pro, Mariscal has six wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. His last three knockout wins all occurred in round two, after two of his first three ended in round one, with the other coming in round four. All three of his submission wins came in the first round of fights earlier in his career. He has three KO/TKO losses on his record and three decision defeats. One of those TKOs came in a bullshit second round early stoppage against Steve Garcia in 2020, with the other two coming in the first round against Gregor Gillespie in 2016 and Joanderson Brito in 2019. Two of his three decision losses were against Sean Soriano and Bryce Mitchell, so five of his six defeats came against UFC fighters. Mariscal made his 2014 pro debut up at 170 lb, before dropping down to 155 lb for his next fight. He then moved down to 145 lb in 2016, where 15 of his last 16 fights have been. He did have a 155 lb fight in 2022 where he landed a second round TKO, before attempting to drop back down to 145 lb for his last fight. However, he missed weight by 4 lb in that match, blaming the airlines for losing his weight cutting gear. Now he’ll be making his short notice debut at 155 lb, where he’s gone 3-1 in his career, but has only fought the one time since 2016.
Overall, Mariscal is an aggressive, well-rounded fighter with a ton of high-level experience. He’s a judo black belt and trains at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado with a lot of other UFC fighters. He’s generally looking to mix in takedown attempts, and is a threat to finish fights on the mat, but doesn’t have the best top control and often loses positions. We’ve seen Mariscal look really good and really bad at times in the past, so it’s tough to know which version of him you’re going to get. Obviously the circumstances surrounding his upcoming debut are not ideal, as he steps in on short notice and up a weight class, but he will have the experience advantage despite being the newcomer.
Fight Prediction:
Peek will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as the most exciting fight on the card, so it’s somewhat surprising that it’s not later on in the bout order. Both guys come out aggressively hunting for finishes, with defense taking a backseat. Peek has been taken down four times in the first round in each of his last two fights and Mariscal is a judo black belt, so it would make sense for Mariscal to test Peek on the mat early. However, Mariscal tends to lose top position fairly easily, so he may struggle to keep Peek grounded. On the feet, both guys have the potential to knock the other out and they’ve both looked hittable. It will be interesting to see how big of an impact the size difference makes, as Peek has fought as high as 180 lb in the past, but is a true 155er, while Mariscal has been competing almost exclusively at 145 lb since 2016. The short notice nature could also result in Mariscal gassing out if this fight goes at the space we expect it to. That likely leaves him more reliant on finding an early finish to win, although considering Peek has never been past the second round it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him gas out in the later rounds. Mariscal has been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde type fighter and you never know which version of him is going to show up, making this a very volatile matchup. If he shows up flat he’s gonna get flatlined, but he has the skills required to pull off the upset, despite the unfavorable circumstances surrounding his debut (short notice and up a weight class). The only thing we’re confident in here is violence, and we could see either guy finishing the other. We rarely see fighters find much success when stepping into their UFC debuts on short notice and up a weight class, but we’re giving Mariscal more of a chance than your typical fighter in that situation. We’ll say Mariscal lands a second round finish on the mat, but it’s hard to feel confident in either of these two.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -155.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Peek’s brawling fighting style and 100% finishing rate is perfectly suited for DFS production and he put up a slate-breaking 131 DraftKings points in his recent perfectly timed knockout in the final second of the first round in his UFC debut. All eight of his pro wins have come by knockout in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one. He’s constantly looking to land bombs and/or take his opponents down and beat them up with ground and pound. Just keep in mind, he only turned pro in 2020 and trains at a smaller gym with limited experienced training partners. He struggled early in his DWSC match, saying that he suffered an adrenaline dump and wasn’t used to fighting without his home crowd cheering him on. He still came back to land a second round TKO in that fight, but he was moments away from getting finished in round one. The fact that his longest career fight only lasted eight minutes also leaves some questions surrounding his cardio, and he certainly doesn’t fight at a pace that appears sustainable over the course of three rounds. However, as long as the UFC keeps giving him favorable matchups, he’ll have a massive scoring ceiling. Now he’s taking on an opponent who’s making his UFC debut up a weight class on short notice, which bodes well for Peek’s chances of landing another knockout and putting up another massive score. Just keep in mind, Mariscal has far more experience than your typical debuting fighter and this fight is lined as a coin flip. The odds imply Peek has a 49% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Mariscal is finally getting his UFC shot after facing a slew of opponents in the past who went on to fight in the UFC. However, the circumstances surrounding his debut are far from favorable as he steps in on short notice and up a weight class. We rarely see fighters find success in that spot, although Muhammad Naimov just knocked out Jamie Mullarkey in the same situation. Putting recency bias aside, Mariscal will have an uphill battle as he’ll be the smaller fighter in what we expect to be a brawl. He will have the grappling advantage, although it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to actually control Peek on the mat for extended periods of time, as Mariscal’s top control has been dubious in the past. While Peek has never finished or even lost a fight, he nearly got knocked out on DWCS in the first round and Mariscal is an aggressive striker who could certainly shut his lights off. Mariscal has also been knocked out three times himself, so overall it’s a highly volatile matchup where either fighter could finish the other. Based on the expected pace, the high likelihood of a finish, and their lower prices, it’s hard to see the winner of this fight getting left out of tournament winning lineups barring some sort of No Contest. That makes it a critical decision point in tournaments, although we also expect it to be the highest owned three-round fight on the card. The odds imply Mariscal has a 51% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
7th UFC Fight (1-5)Zhumagulov had been scheduled to fight Felipe Bunes last week, but Bunes pulled out on Thursday and Zhumagulov was immediately rebooked a week later against a new opponent. Zhumagulov’s last three booked opponents all dropped out against him and apparently everyone is petrified by the idea of getting beaten by someone with a novelty haircut, despite the fact Zhumagulov has lost three straight fights. The last two of those ended in split decisions that easily could have gone his way and he simply can’t catch a break in the UFC. He also arguably won his debut, but the judges disagreed there as well. He’s now 1-5 in the UFC, and actually announced his retirement shortly after his last fight, but apparently changed his mind, at least for now. You have to feel for the guy, as every close decision has gone the other way. His last loss came against Charles Johnson after Jeff Molina beat him just before that. Nine of Zhumagulov’s last 11 fights have gone the distance, with the two exceptions being a 2021 R1 TKO loss to Manel Kape and a 2021 R1 submission win over Jerome Rivera right before that. Prior to submitting Rivera, Zhumagulov lost a decision to a really tough Amir Albazi, after losing a questionable decision in his UFC debut against Raulian Paiva.
Now 14-8 as a pro, Zhumagulov has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has six decision losses. He’s only landed one finish since 2017 and has only been finished once since 2015.
Overall, Zhumagulov is an experienced grinder who isn’t great at anything but is decent at everything. He’ll mix in takedown attempts, but also has no problem keeping fights standing. In his six UFC fights, he’s landed 6 of his 31 takedown attempts (19.4% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down twice on just six attempts (66.7% defense). We shouldn’t have to worry about his cardio late in fights, as four of his last five fights before joining the UFC were five-round decisions.
Joshua Van
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut with just over a week to prepare, Van has won five straight fights and has never been past the second round in his career. While two of his last three wins have come by submission, Van is a striker and doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling outside of looking for opportunistic submissions.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Van has five wins by KO/TKO and two submission victories. All seven of his finishes came in the first two rounds, with two in round one, and five in round two. His last three finishes all occurred in the second round. He was also submitted in the second round in his lone pro loss. He’s faced exclusively questionable competition, with only two of his opponents coming in with more than two pro wins.
Overall, Van is a 21-year-old Burmese kickboxer who says he only started training two years ago, and only turned pro 18 months ago in October 2021. That shows in his wrestling, which has looked terrible. He’s shown some ability to look for submissions when the opportunities present themselves, but he’s still a liability on the mat. His striking looks decent, but we’ve yet to see how it will look against legitimate competition.
Fight Prediction:
Van will have a 1” height advantage, but Zhumagulov will have a 1” reach advantage. Zhumagulov is 13 years older than the 21-year-old Van.
Zhumagulov will have a massively grappling advantage here and we expect him to rely heavily on his wrestling to win this fight. While Zhumagulov only has one career submission win, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him submit Van here and you have to imagine he wants no part of a decision after his past luck with the judges. With that said, he only has one early win in the last six years and that came against one of the most fragile fighters on the roster in Jerome Rovera. The most likely outcome is that Zhumagulov wins a decision (or hilariously loses another split decision). Van doesn’t look ready for the UFC and seems like they just needed a warm body on short notice. Give us Zhumagulov by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Zhumagulov SUB or DEC” at -125.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Zhumagulov scored 94 DraftKings points in his lone UFC win, which ended in a first round submission against an absolutely terrible Jerome Rivera. He’s habitually involved in close decisions, but they never go his way and he’s 0-4 with the judges since joining the UFC. He scored 41 or few points in the first three of those losses, before putting up 59 points most recently. So even if those had gone his way he never would have scored especially well although he showed a decent floor in that last one. The UFC appears somewhat sympathetic since they haven’t cut him yet, but any fight could be his last, and he actually said he was retiring after that last loss. We don’t know what his plans are moving forward, but that does add some uncertainty regarding his motivation and future plans. He gets an easier matchup here and if he can’t win this fight against a guy who turned pro less than two years then maybe it is time for Zhumagulov to hang it up. This matchup is perfectly suited for Zhumagulov to find a ton of wrestling success, making him a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel. If he completely dominates the fight on the ground, there’s a chance he could score well on DraftKings even in a decision, but at his high price tag that will still be challenging, leaving him more reliant on landing a finish. Despite facing a UFC newcomer who stepped in on short notice, we expect Zhumagulov to be low owned, which adds to his tournament appeal in this dream matchup. The odds imply Zhumagulov has a 65% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Van has a 100% finishing rate, but his seven pro wins all came against low-level opponents and this will be a major step up in competition for him. He only turned pro in October 2021 and is more or less of a one-dimensional striker with terrible wrestling. He gets taken down by almost all of his opponents, which limits his ability to put up big striking numbers and leaves him reliant on landing finishes. While that’s worked out for him on the regional scene, we don’t see him being ready for the UFC and opponents should be looking to put him on his back early and often. He looks like nothing more than a hail mary finish or bust play in this spot and we don’t have much interest in playing him despite his low projected ownership. The odds imply he has a 35% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Tabatha Ricci
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off her first early win in the UFC, Ricci recently submitted a fellow grappler in Jessica Penne with a second round armbar. Ricci was able to take Penne down four times and control her for over five minutes in a fight that didn’t even make it to the midway mark of round two. Ricci also outlanded her in significant strikes 36-6 and in total strikes 81-19. Prior to that, Ricci won a decision over another grappler in Polyana Viana, where Ricci landed five takedowns. Ricci also landed five takedowns against a terrible Maria Oliveira just before that and has now won three straight fights with at least four takedowns landed in each of those. The only misstep of Ricci’s career came in a R2 TKO loss in her short notice UFC debut up a weight class against a very dangerous Manon Fiorot, who’s currently ranked number two in the women’s Flyweight division. Ricci originally turned pro in MMA in 2013 at just 18 years old. However, she then went and fought in a Japanese hybrid Judo league called SEIZA for a while before returning to MMA in 2020. Upon her return, she joined the LFA and defeated a series of very low level opponents before joining the UFC.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Ricci has one win by TKO (R2 2021), three armbar submissions, and four decision wins. Her only career loss was the R2 TKO in her UFC debut. Her four finishes were split across the first two rounds, but her last five and seven of her last eight fights have made it to round two.
Overall, Ricci relies entirely on her grappling to win fights. She’s a BJJ and Judo black belt and a training partner of Mackenzie Dern, so unsurprisingly she has a solid ground game and looks most dangerous with her armbar submissions. She’s shown she has no problem going to the ground with other dangerous grapplers, and even seems to relish the opportunities to see how she stacks up in those matchups. She can explode for flurries of strikes, but doesn’t have a ton of power so really isn’t much of a knockout threat. She typically wins fights by either grinding out grappling-heavy decisions or locking up armbars. In her four UFC fights, she’s landed 14 of her 17 takedown attempts (51.9% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on one of their two attempts (50% defense). That lone takedown she gave up was in her debut up at 125 lb and no one has taken her down at 115 lb.
Gillian Robertson
15th UFC Fight (9-5)Robertson is just two months removed from a second round submission win over Piera Rodriguez. Robertson dropped down from 125 lb to 115 lb for the first time in the UFC for that fight and looked great at the new weight class. She had fought at 115 lb early in her pro career and was always undersized at 125 lb, and the move had seemed inevitable for a while. Robertson took Rodriguez down twice in the fight and controlled her for over six minutes before locking up an armbar in the final minute of round two. That’s Robertson’s second straight submission win, after she locked up a rear-naked choke against Mariya Agapova in her previous fight. Robertson is still just 3-3 in her last six fights, with all three of those wins ending in submissions in the first two rounds and all three losses going the distance. Her only decision win in her last 17 fights came in 2020 against Poliana Botelho.
Now 12-7 as a pro, Robertson has one win by TKO (R2 2019), nine submissions, and two decision victories. She’s been knocked out once (R1 2019), submitted once (R1 2018), and has five decision defeats. Her two pre-UFC decision losses also came against fighters who are now in the UFC, in Hannah Goldy in Robertson’s 2016 pro debut and Cynthia Calvillo in 2016. The loss against Goldy came at 115 lb and the loss to Calvillo was at a 120 lb Catchweight. Robertson fought mostly at 115 lb before joining the UFC, but she moved up to 125 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017 and stayed there up until her last fight when she dropped back down to 115 lb.
Overall, Robertson is a solid technical grappler, but doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of striking and can be overpowered on the mat by stronger opponents. She’s shown the ability to make the most of her one-dimensional grappling skillset and has generally capitalized when put in favorable matchups, but struggles when facing fellow grapplers or opponents with good defensive wrestling who can keep the fight standing. When she faced the solid takedown defense of JJ Aldrich she lost a decision. She also lost decisions to fellow grapplers in Miranda Maverick, Taila Santos, and Cynthia Calvillo, while she got armbarred by Mayra Bueno Silva. In her 14 UFC fights, she’s landed 23 takedowns on 54 attempts (42.6% accuracy), landing at least one takedown in 12 of those fights and two or more in eight of them, but never more than three in a single fight. She lost both of the fights where she failed to land a takedown. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down by her opponents on six of their eight attempts (25% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Robertson will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
These two are very similar in that they’re both dangerous one-dimensional grapplers who are always looking to get fights to the mat. We give the wrestling and probably the striking advantages to Ricci, while Robertson has been the more potent finisher. However, Robertson has really struggled when facing other grapplers, basically losing all of those fights. Her style of fighting is not conducive to winning decisions (2-5), as she’s entirely focussed on hunting for finishes. That’s great when it works and makes her entertaining to watch, but typically doesn’t translate to success when fights hit the scorecards. Ricci on the other hand, has shown really good wrestling and control and is undefeated with the judges (4-0). We don’t expect either one of these two to shy away from the grappling exchanges and this fight should play out mostly on the mat. While that creates the potential for one of them to submit the other, it’s more likely that it ends in a Ricci decision win as we expect her to finish ahead in takedowns and control time. The pick is Ricci by decision, but we definitely don’t mind taking some long shot submission props.
Our favorite bet here is “Ricci R1 or R2 SUB” at +1000.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Ricci is coming off her first UFC finish, which was good for 123 DraftKings points in a second round submission victory. Prior to that, she won a pair of grappling-heavy decisions that scored 93 and 100 points on DraftKings, and she’s averaging an impressive 105 points overall in her three UFC victories. Her grappling-heavy style of fighting is better suited for the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel’s, where she’s more reliant on landing finishes. This looks like a tough matchup for her to land another finish as she takes on a fellow high-level grappler, but we said the same thing going into her last fight and we saw how that ended. We expect this fight to play out mostly on the mat, so Ricci will have a good shot at filling up the stat sheet with grappling stats. Both fighters are coming off big performances, so we don’t expect the fight to fly under the radar, but on a slate this size we shouldn’t see either of their ownership get out of control. The odds imply Ricci has a 55% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one. Ricci ranks really well in the Model.
Robertson has averaged 102 DraftKings points in her nine UFC wins, scoring at least 92 points in all of those. She’s coming off a pair of second round submissions that were good for 106 and 96 DraftKings points, while she scored 117 points in her last first round submission win. While she doesn’t always put up huge scores in her finishes, that’s less important here where she’s priced as the underdog. She dropped down to 115 lb for her last fight and looked good making the switch, but this will be a quick turnaround for her, something she’s never had to do at the light weight class. It’s always possible that negatively impacts her, but she could also be fine. The bigger concern for her is the fact that she’s done terrible against other grapplers in the past, basically losing all of those matchups. She’s only won one decision in her last 17 fights and is now facing an opponent who’s never been finished, or even taken down at 115 lb. We’re typically really high on Robertson, but this is a really tough matchup for her to find success, and we’re far less excited about playing her. The odds imply she has a 45% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Mateusz Rebecki
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a lopsided decision victory over Nick Fiore in his UFC debut, Rebecki has won 14 straight fights dating back to 2014. He took Fiore down three times and controlled him for eight and a half minutes while more than doubling him up in striking. The only knock on his performance was that he couldn’t find a finish. Prior to that win, Rebecki punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS. He was the longtime FEN Lightweight champion in Poland and after winning the vacant FEN Lightbelt belt back in 2018, he successfully defended it seven straight times before going on DWCS. While the most recent of those defenses ended in a five-round decision victory, he landed nine straight finishes before that.
Now 17-1 as a pro, Rebecki has eight wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. His only loss occurred in a 2014 R2 knockout in his fourth pro fight. He bounced back from the loss with 14 straight wins and 10 of his last 12 victories ended early. He has nine first round finishes, one in round two, three in round three, and one in round four.
Overall, Rebecki is a powerful Polish wrestler with a BJJ background. He aggressively pushes forward looking to land both takedowns and heavy strikes. His stocky build can make it harder for him to find his striking range against taller/longer opponents, but his threat of wrestling allows him to feint takedowns while landing big looping shots. Once he does close the distance, he’s a serious problem in the clinch and quickly gets opponents to the mat. His biggest obstacle appears to be his size, but he’s shown the ability to walk through strikes to get his hands on his opponents and overall he’s very well rounded.
Loik Radzhabov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Also coming off a decision win in his UFC debut, Radzhabov stepped into that fight on just six days’ notice after Kamuela Kirk dropped out. Underrated by the short notice nature, Radzhabov landed 11 takedowns on 21 attempts with over seven and a half minutes of control time as he cruised to a grappling-heavy decision win. That win came 14 months after he landed a first round submission win with Eagle FC, after losing a five-round decision in the PFL. Radzhabov has fought for the PFL million dollar prize not once, but twice, although he lost five-round decisions both times.
Now 17-4-1 as a pro, Radzhabov has seven wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. Nine of his 12 finishes occurred in his first nine pro fights and he hasn’t looked like much of a finisher lately, with 9 of his last 11 fights going the distance. He’s never been finished, with all four of his losses ending in decisions. Radzhabov has competed at both 155 lb and 170 lb, and his last fight before joining the UFC was actually at 165 lb, but his 10 before that were all at 155 lb, where it looks like he’ll stay in the UFC.
Overall, Radzhabov relies largely on his wrestling to win fights, but isn’t helpless on the feet and has looked very durable. He’s not the most explosive or exciting fighter by any means, but he just keeps on going and can wear on his opponents. He’s already 32 years old, trains at Kill Cliff FC, and has twice competed with a million dollars on the line, so he came into the UFC with more experience than most. He landed 11 of his 21 takedown attempts in his recent debut (52.3% accuracy), while defending the only attempt against him (100% defense).
Update: Radzhabov missed weight by 1.25 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Radzhabov will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two rely heavily on their grappling to win fights, so it’s somewhat of a doppelganger matchup and it’s possible we see their wrestling cancel eachother out. We haven’t seen either guy spend much time on their backs, but we’d be surprised to see either one of them look very comfortable there, so if one of them can take the other down they’ll be in a good position to win minutes and take the round. On the feet, it’s tougher to say who will have the advantage, and this should be a close fight. One thing to keep in mind is that Rebecki just beat a short notice replacement in his UFC debut, while Radzhabov just won as a short notice replacement. So there’s more reason to think Radzhabov shows improvements here than Rebecki. Radzhabov has been the more durable of the two and has never been finished, while Rebecki was knocked out in his only loss. Radzhabov missing weight also adds some uncertainty to the mix, but we’re still leaning in his direction to pull off the upset. It should be a close fight and most likely ends in a decision, but we also think Radzhabov has a slight chance to knock Rebecki out early.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +450.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Rebecki’s aggressive, wrestling-heavy approach to fighting looks tailor-made for DFS production. He’s won 14 straight fights, with 10 of his last 12 wins coming early. While his recent UFC debut ended in a decision win, he was still able to score 104 DraftKings points in the grappling-heavy victory. However, he’ll face a much tougher test here against an experienced wrestler, and this looks like a tough matchup for Rebecki to implement his wrestling-heavy gameplan. Radzhabov has also been extremely durable and has never been finished in 22 pro fights, lowering Rebecki’s chances of finding a finish. However, the fact that Radzhabov missed weight does add some uncertainty and could affect his chin or cardio in the fight. Nevertheless, this looks like a tougher spot for Rebecki to score well. The odds imply Rebecki has a 57% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Radzhabov’s wrestling-heavy style generally makes him a better fit for the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel’s. While Radzhabov scored a ridiculous 120 DraftKings points in his recent debut on the back of 11 takedowns landed, this looks like a much tougher matchup for him to find a ton of grappling success as he faces a fellow wrestler. There’s a good chance this turns into more of a standup battle if their wrestling cancels each other out, which would leave Radzhabov reliant on landing a finish on both sites. While 9 of Radzhabov’s last 11 fights have gone the distance, he does have 12 finishes on his record and Rebecki was knocked out in his only career loss. The most likely outcome is still for this fight to end in a close decision, but we’re not ruling out the possibility that Radzhabov can land a finish. The odds imply Radzhabov has a 43% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Randy Brown
16th UFC Fight (10-5)Brown will be looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss to a surging Jack Della Maddalena, who is known for his knockouts and not his submissions. Brown nearly did get knocked out in the fight, as Della Maddalena dropped him two minutes into round one, but as Brown gave up his back on the mat Della Maddalena happily snatched up his neck to force the quick stoppage. Following that loss, Brown took part in a grappling tournament two months ago and again got submitted. Prior to the loss to Della Maddalena, Brown had won four straight fights, with the last three of those wins going the distance, after he submitted Alex Oliveira in the first round of a 2021 match. All three of those decision wins came against durable opponents in Francisco Trinaldo, Khaos Williams, and Jared Gooden, so it’s not shocking that Brown was unable to finish any of them.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Brown has six wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decisions. Five of his six knockout wins came in the later rounds, including four in round two. However, his last two finishes both came by submission and he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2019. Three of his five submission wins also occurred in the later rounds, with two ending in round two. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. While his last loss ended in round one, his three previous early losses occurred in the second round and amazingly 9 of his 21 pro fights have ended in round two (6-3). Only two of his last 15 fights have ended in the first round, although those were also his last two fights to end early.
Overall, Brown is a BJJ brown belt and a well-rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and the mat. He’s landed seven takedowns in his 15 UFC fights, but has never landed more than one in a match. Because Brown is so tall, he has looked vulnerable to leg strikes as he has a wider stance and skinny legs. We saw Luque chew up Brown’s legs with 26 leg strikes before eventually finishing him late in round two of a 2020 match and Belal Muhammad landed 43 on his way to winning a decision over Brown back in 2017. Brown is training in Philly now with Andre Petroski who just beat Turman.
Wellington Turman
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Dropping down to 170 lb for the first time since 2017, Turman is coming off a grappling-heavy decision loss to Andre Petroski. Turman got taken down by Petroski eight times and controlled for eight minutes, while only landing one takedown of his own. Prior to that, Turman locked up a second round submission win over Misha Cirkunov after winning a split decision over Sam Alvey, despite having two points deducted in the third round for eye pokes. Leading up to those two wins, Turman got knocked out in the first round in back-to-back fights against Bruno Silva and Andrew Sanchez, after splitting a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights. Three of his last five fights have ended in under seven minutes.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Turman has four wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and six decisions. However, he only has one submission victory since 2019 and his last knockout win was all the way back in 2016, coming against a stat-padding opponent who came in 0-11 and is now 0-17 with all 17 losses ending early. Turman has never knocked out a legitimate opponent and his can-crushing record should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Six of his eight submission wins have come in the first round, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. He’s been knocked out twice and has four decision losses, but has never been submitted himself.
Overall, Turman is a BJJ black belt but has gone just 9 for 42 (21.4% accuracy) on his takedown attempts in his seven UFC fights. His opponents have taken him down on 9 of their 18 attempts (50% defense), with eight of those takedowns conceded coming in his last fight against Andre Petroski. Turman has shown a suspect chin in the past and only averages 2.92 SSL/min and 3.79 SSA/min. Now that he’s cutting an additional 15 lb to make it down to 170 lb, we have serious questions regarding his durability.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
While Brown has struggled recently with getting submitted and that’s how Turman looks to end fights, we don’t love Turman’s chances of locking something up here. Despite Turman dropping down from 185 lb, Brown is the bigger, faster, and stronger fighter. We expect the weight cut to reduce Turman’s already suspect durability and we like Brown to finish him in the first two rounds, most likely by knockout in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Brown ITD” at +120.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Brown has averaged 82 DraftKings in his 10 UFC wins and has only topped 96 points in two of those—a 2016 R2 KO win and a 2021 R1 submission victory. He scored 110 points in each of those finishes but returned scores of just 90, 96, and 60 in his other three UFC early wins. He also averaged just 70 points in his five UFC decision wins, failing to top 77 points in any of those, and he’s never landed more than one takedown in a fight. However, after facing a series of bad matchups for DFS, Brown is finally in a good spot to score well as he goes against the suspect durability of Turman who’s dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in the UFC. While we have no way of knowing how tough the weight cut was for Turman, if it was easy he probably would have done it a long time ago. That should greatly increase Brown’s chances of landing an early knockout and putting up a big score. His past scoring struggles and expensive price tag should keep his ownership in check and Brown has been 20% or less owned on DraftKings in his last three fights, making him a great tournament pivot off of the higher owned expensive options. The odds imply Brown has a 68% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one. Brown also ranks pretty well in the Model.
Turman has never scored well in DFS, averaging just 76 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins. Even in his second round submission win, he still only scored 82 points. Prior to that, he had only scored 74 and 73 points in his two decision wins and has yet to demonstrate any sort of actual ceiling. His striking has been unimpressive, as has his takedown accuracy, and he has a glass chin. Now cutting an additional 15 lb, he’ll be at risk of getting knocked out anytime Brown touches him, and it will be essential for Turman to get his grappling going to have a chance. And on that note, neither his 21% career takedown accuracy or the 71% takedown defense are encouraging for his chances of finding grappling success. WIth that said, Brown got submitted in his last UFC fight and in a recent grappling match, which at least gives Turman some hope. Just keep in mind, one of those submission losses was a club and sub and the other was in a grappling match where Brown wasn’t allowed to strike. The only other appealing thing with Turman is his low ownership, but that’s not enough for us to get excited about him and we expect him to get finished early here. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Neil Magny
30th UFC Fight (20-9)Coming off his second submission loss in his last three fights, Magny just got submitted by Gilbert Burns in the first round after getting submitted by Shavkat Rakhmonov in round two a year ago. In between those two early losses, Magny landed a submission win of his own over Daniel Rodriguez, and his last three fights have now all ended in submissions, after his previous six all went the distance (5-1). That submission win over Rodriguez is Magny’s only finish since 2018 and we generally see Magny grind out decision wins.
Now 27-10 as a pro, Magny has seven wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and sixteen decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted six times, and has two decision losses. Four of his six submission defeats occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. One of his two KO losses also ended in round one, with the other ending in round four. Despite all of those early losses, Magny has only been finished twice since 2018 and Magny has gone an impressive 16-2 in his 18 career decisions.
Overall, Magny wears on his opponents with a combination of striking and grappling as he weaponizes his cardio and often comes out ahead in the later rounds. While he generally doesn’t put up huge significant striking totals, averaging just 3.59 SSL/min, he tacks on 2.4 TDL/15 min to help grind on his opponents’ gas tanks. Magny typically doesn’t get hit a ton, averaging just 2.25 SSA/min in his career, but his biggest weakness has been his defensive grappling and his 56% takedown defense isn’t anything to write home about. Four of his last five losses came against really solid grapplers in Gilbert Burns, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Michael Chiesa, and Rafael Dos Anjos.
Phil Rowe
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Rowe has landed three straight late-round knockouts, after losing a decision to Gabe Green in his 2021 UFC debut. The first two of those knockouts came against absolutely terrible opponents in Orion Cosce and Jason Witt, who both found some success in controlling Rowe early in those fights. In his last fight, Rowe faced a tougher opponent in Niko Price, who was coming back from double knee surgery and hadn’t competed in 14 months. Rowe won the first two rounds, before Price nearly finished him in round three, only to have Rowe turn the tables and knock Price out instead. A year and a half prior to his debut, Rowe punched his ticket to the UFC when he landed a third round KO win on DWCS. Rowe got knocked down early in that 2019 DWCS match and looked to be in trouble, however, he was able to recover and really turned it on in the second round before finishing things just as the third round started. His last six fights all made it out of the first round, but only one of those required the judges. So he’s consistently been a slow starter, but has found ways to finish opponents later in fights.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Rowe has six wins by KO/TKO and four by submission. He has three first round finishes, five in round two, and two in round three. His last five finishes all occurred in the later rounds. The only time he’s ever been finished himself came in his 2014 pro debut when he was knocked out two minutes into the first round. He’s never been submitted, but he has lost both of the decisions he’s been to. After losing the first two fights of his pro career, Rowe has now won 10 of his last 11 matches. However, one important thing to keep in mind is that Rowe’s pre-UFC wins came against much lower level competition. Here are the records of his first nine pro opponents beginning with his two early career losses: 1-0 (L), 0-0 (L), 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 4-5, and 7-1 (Leon Shahbazyan on DWCS). Rowe has also competed in five grappling matches since joining the UFC and lost all five, getting submitted in two of those.
Overall, Rowe has a massive 6’3” frame for the 170 lb weight class so it was ironic to listen to bitch about how weight cutting isn’t natural at media day this week. Go fight at 185 lb Phil, no one’s stopping you. He can generate good power with a long striking range, however, the trade off is that he has skinnier legs and tends to get them badly chewed up, as we saw in his UFC debut. He’s also been very prone to getting taken down and controlled and between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he was taken down 9 times on 19 opponent attempts (52.6% defense). He was controlled for over five minutes in two of his last three fights, despite both of those fights ending in the second round. Rowe has a background in basketball, not martial arts, and was a self-described terrible fighter when he first started MMA. He trains with high level grapplers in Jacare Souza and Rodolfo Vieira, and he struggles more with wrestling than his grappling. Rowe also missed weight by 2.5 lb for two of his last three fights, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” with an 80” reach, but Rowe is three years younger than the 35-year-old Magny.
This is the rare fight for these two where they won’t have a size advantage as they check in as mirror images of each other. Apparently they’ve actually trained together once in the past for what it’s worth. Magny’s last six fights have all been won by the superior grappler/wrestler and the last time someone got knocked out in one of his matches was in 2018. Magny does a good job of controlling opponents, something that Rowe has struggled with, but Magny struggles with being submitted. Rowe hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019, but trains with world class grapplers and potentially could lock something up here. Rowe also has the striking to knock Magny out, and has excelled at landing late knockouts in fights. However, the most likely outcome is still for Magny to grind out a decision win as he pushes Rowe up against the cage and makes the fight ugly. The one thing working in Rowe’s favor is that he’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd as he trains out of Florida. So if Magny is just holding Rowe against the fence, we should get a loud booing crowd encouraging the ref to break it up. That may give Rowe a few extra opportunities to find a finish, but we’re still leaning that Magny wins a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R3” at +700.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Magny has only landed one finish since 2018, which was good for 110 DraftKings points in a third round submission in his last win. His previous five victories all went the distance, with Magny averaging 82 DraftKings points over that stretch. He scored anywhere from 63 to 100 points in those decision wins, showing a wide range of scoring potential. He generally mixes in a combination of striking and grappling that allows him to score well at times even without landing finishes. Rowe has struggled with being controlled, which should benefit Magny on DraftKings, but won’t help him on FanDuel. Magny’s last two decision wins only scored 75 and 72 DraftKings points, so he’ll either need to crank up the volume or find a finish to return value as the favorite here. It is a step down in competition for him, so it’s definitely possible he finds more success and puts up a usable score, but the most likely outcome is still for him to win a decision and fail to score enough to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Rowe is coming off three straight late-round knockout wins, which were good for 78, 83, and 100 DraftKings points. We often see him get controlled for extended periods of time in fights, which has limited his ability to land enough volume to generally put up big scores with later finishes and he’s also only landed three total takedowns between his four UFC fights. We expect Magny to try and control Rowe in this one, which if successful, will again lower Rowe’s scoring ceiling in a later round finish. Rowe has never won a decision in his career, so he’s been entirely reliant on landing finishes. Magny has been prone to getting submitted, but hasn’t been knocked out since 2018 and Rowe hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019. With that said, Rowe is definitely capable of either submitting or knocking Magny out, but it will be a tougher task than his last three matchups and the most likely outcome is for him to lose a decision. At his cheaper price tag, Rowe may not need to put up a huge score to crack the optimal lineup, but he failed to make it into tournament winning lineups in either of his last two knockout wins when he was priced at $8,400 and $7,800 on DraftKings. That shows there’s a decent chance that even if he does land a late finish, he may still not score enough to be useful unless we have a slate where very few underdogs win. The odds imply Rowe has a 39% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Brendan Allen
12th UFC Fight (9-2)Coming off his biggest UFC win, Allen pulled off the upset against Andre Muniz in a surprising third round submission win. Allen was methodically pointing his way to victory leading up to the finish, and was ahead on the scorecards had it gone the distance. He showed his grappling was good enough to remain out of danger with Muniz on the mat, although the majority of the fight was spent on the feet with both fighters taking a more patient approach. That’s Allen’s fourth straight win since he got knocked out by Chris Curtis in December 2021. He bounced back from that loss with a second round submission win over a floundering Sam Alvery, before winning a close/questionable decision over Jacob Malkoun. Allen then submitted Krzysztof Jotko in the first round leading up to his win over Muniz. Three of Allen’s last four and four of his last six wins came by submission, with his other two most recent victories both going the distance. The only other time he’s lost in the UFC was in a second round knockout against Sean Strickland back in 2020.
Now 21-5 as a pro, Allen has five wins by KO/TKO, 12 submissions, and four decision victories. All five of his knockouts came in round one, while he has five first round submissions, five in round two, and two in round three. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the second round, and submitted once, which occurred in his third pro fight against Trevin Giles back in 2016. He also has two five-round LFA decision losses to Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders. So all five of his career losses have come against current UFC fighters, but three of those occurred before he joined the UFC. Eight of his 11 UFC fights have ended early (6-2), while he’s won all three of the decisions he’s been to with the organization. Five of his six UFC finishes ended in submissions, while he also had a ground and pound TKO victory over Tom Breese in his second UFC appearance. He’s yet to knock anyone out on the feet.
Overall, Allen is a BJJ black belt and is most dangerous on the mat, but he’s shown a low fight IQ at multiple points in the past and often fails to take the path of least resistance, making him a bit unpredictable. He’s a fairly patient striker on the feet, averaging 3.85 SSL/min, and has only landed three total takedowns in his last five fights. Between his 11 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed 9 of his 19 takedown attempts (47.4%), while he’s been taken down by his opponents 12 times on 27 attempts (55.6%). He’s never landed more than two takedowns in a fight, a number he’s only reached once in his last six matches. However, he has been efficient recently, landing all four of his attempts in his last three matches.
Bruno Silva
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Two months removed from a first round knockout win over Brad Tavares, Silva notched a much needed win after losing his two previous fights. The most recent of those losses came in a third round submission against Gerald Meerschaert, and even before getting finished, Silva looked terrible in that fight. He somehow got outlanded by Meerschaert 46-29 in significant strikes, before getting dropped in the third round just before the submission. Prior to that, Silva lost a decision to Alex Pereira, showing why he’s never been knocked out as he ate 108 significant strikes from one of the most dangerous kickboxers in the world and survived to see the scorecards. Leading up to those two defeats, Silva had knocked out seven straight opponents dating back to a 2016 submission loss. Silva’s second most recent decision was just over seven years ago. Silva’s 2021 UFC debut came after a 31 month layoff. He had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Deron Winn all the way back in June 2019, but failed a drug test and was suspended for two years after testing positive for steroids.
Now 23-8 as a pro, Silva has 20 wins by KO/TKO and three decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted six times, has one decision loss, and one by DQ. Silva has impressively gone 18-3 in his last 21 fights dating back to 2012. Just three of those 21 fights went the distance, while 16 ended in KO wins, including 13 in the first round.
Overall, Silva is a one-dimensional power puncher who struggles on the mat, despite somehow being a BJJ black belt. He’s been taken down by his six UFC opponents on 8 of their 28 attempts (71.4% defense), while he’s landed 2 of his own 11 attempts (18.2% accuracy). Both of those takedowns he landed came against Alex Pereira, while seven of the takedowns he conceded were against Andrew Sanchez.
Fight Prediction:
Allen will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also six years younger than the 33-year-old Silva.
This fight looks pretty straightforward. Silva is power puncher who’s landed knockouts in 20 of his 23 pro wins, but has been submitted in six of his eight pro losses. Ten of his last 11 fights ended in either knockout wins (8) or submission losses (2), with the one exception being a decision loss to another powerful one-dimensional striker in Alex Pereira. When you have fighters like Silva with such binary outcomes it almost seems too obvious to pick one of those two outcomes, and we’ve seen Allen refuse to use his grappling at times and stand and trade with strikers, like when he fought Sean Strickland and Punahele Soriano, and to some extent Chris Curtis, although he at least tried to get Curtis down unsuccessfully. Allen went 1-2 in those fights with a pair of second round KO losses and a decision win. It’s not impossible he can slow this fight down and win a decision over Silva, as Silva will be forced to respect the takedown threat of Allen. With that said, if Allen can get past his own ego and come in with a grappling-heavy gameplan, he should be able to submit Silva early in this fight. Unfortunately, that relies on Allen making smart decisions, which is like relying on a fart not to stink in a crowded room. And on that note, we’ll hold our nose and say Allen wins by submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Allen SUB” at +175.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Allen has averaged a respectable 94 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins, with four scores of 102 or more. However, the only times he’s topped 102 points is in his three first round finishes, which were good for 107, 111, and 109 DraftKings points. He only scored 79 points in his recent third round submission victory and “just” 96 points in his last second round finish. And while, he’s averaged 82 points in his three decision wins, he’s never topped 94 points without a finish. Long story short, if history is any indicator Allen will need to land a first round submission to return value at his expensive price, and even then he could easily get outscored by the other expensive options and left out of winning lineups. He only averages 3.85 SSL/min and has never landed more than two takedowns in a UFC fight, and is generally looking to execute the stupidest game plan possible. Despite all of that, he’s been above 30% owned on DraftKings in four of his last five fights and projects to be highly owned once again in this favorable stylistic matchup. Another interesting thing to note is that in those last five fights, the two times he ended up in the winning DraftKings lineups was when he was priced as the underdog and the last three times he’s been priced up as the favorite he failed to crack the optimal lineup, despite landing finishes in two of those three fights. So while there’s a really good chance he does submit Silva here, the field will likely overestimate the likelihood of him scoring enough to be useful in tournaments. The odds imply Allen has a 64% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Silva has looked like a R1 KO or bust option so far in his four UFC wins, with DraftKings scores of 109, 109, and 102 in his three first round knockout wins, but just 79 points in a third round KO victory. He also only scored 42 points in a decision loss in his lone trip to the judges. With that said, his cheaper price tag could allow him to serve as a value play here without putting up a huge score, but that will require a lot of help on a slate this large. Working in Silva’s favor, Allen’s brain is made up of Pop Rocks and Code Red Mountain Dew, and he’s shown a complete inability to make smart decisions at times, while getting knocked out twice before. So if Allen does decide to randomly stand and bang with Silva, a knockout is certainly possible. However, it would defy all logic for Allen to abandon his grappling here and Silva has been submitted six times in the past. That leaves Silva with a non-existent floor, but a high ceiling if Allen goes full Beavis in this matchup. Just keep in mind, Silva has historically been pretty popular and is coming off a first round knockout so it will be harder to create unique tournament lineups that include him. The odds imply Silva has a 36% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Gabriel Santos
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Santos is coming off a close split-decision loss in his recent short notice UFC debut against a really tough Lerone Murphy in front of Murphy’s home crowd. That’s one of the tougher spots you could ask for as your first UFC fight and Santos gave a great account of himself, taking Murphy down five times on 11 attempts with four minutes of control time. Murphy did finish ahead in striking and that was enough for two of the three judges to give him the hometown decision. Prior to suffering what was the first loss of his career in that last fight, Santos landed a pair of late-round knockouts in the LFA, after starting his career in Brazil.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Santos has three wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision wins. All four of his submission wins occurred in the first round, while all of his knockouts occurred in rounds two (1) and three (2). While 7 of his 10 wins ended early, his last five fights all made it to the second round, with four of those seeing the third round, and three going the distance. Santos started his career all the way down at 125 lb, before moving up to 135 lb in 2019, and then 145 lb in 2021. All of his submission wins occurred when he was fighting at the lighter weight classes and three of his five 145 lb fights have gone to the judges.
Overall, Santos is an aggressive fighter who rarely takes a step back and does a good job of mixing in grappling and striking. He’s a BJJ brown belt and nearly locked up a submission in his UFC debut, but couldn’t quite complete it and hasn’t actually submitted anybody since 2019. It’s hard to fully gauge his chin, as he nearly got knocked out a minute into the first round of a 2022 fight, although he was narrowly able to survive and come back to land a knockout of his own early in round two. You can’t question his heart and this kid will just keep coming at you. He’s still just 26 years old and should constantly be improving, and this next fight will already be his third in 2023.
David Onama
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Looking to bounce back from his infamous decision loss to Nate Landwehr, Onama is now training at Factory X after Glory MMA shut down and this will be his first UFC fight without James Krause in his corner. Onama nearly knocked Landwehr out in the first round, but Landwehr was able to survive and then took over in the later rounds as Onama’s cardio went off a cliff. Landwehr could have finished Onama if he pushed for it on the ground but was too busy pandering to the ground to be bothered by such things. Just five weeks prior to that loss, Onama submitted Garrett Armfield, who was making his UFC debut up a weight class on very short notice after Austin Lingo dropped out mid fight week. Armfield made the fight fairly competitive in round one, before getting submitted in the second round. Looking back one fight further, Onama knocked out Gabriel Benitez in the first round, but nearly got knocked out himself after taking a punch to the eye that compromised his vision early in that fight. That came after Onama lost a crazy hardfought decision in his short notice UFC debut up a weight class against a really tough Mason Jones. Following that loss at 155 lb, Onama returned to 145 lb for his last three fights.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Onama has six wins by KO/TKO and four submissions. Nine of his 10 career wins have come in the first two rounds, with six in round one and three in round two. The only time he’s ever won a fight that made it past the second round was in a 2020 guillotine that ended in the opening minutes of round two. While half of his submission wins occurred in round two, his last five knockout victories all came in round one. He’s never been finished, but he lost both of the decisions he’s been to. One of those losses came in his short notice UFC debut up a weight class.
Overall, Onama is a dangerous finisher with impressive hand speed and power, but appears to have several defensive deficiencies. He gassed out after the first round in his last fight, and has relied on putting opponents away early to win fights. After training at Glory MMA with James Krause for his entire career, now he’s at Factory X in Colorado and will have to adjust to a brand new corner. We’ll be interested in seeing if his cardio has improved now that he’s training at altitude. He also had more time to prepare for this matchup, as it was announced 54 days in advance. That’s actually more time than he had to prepare for his previous four UFC opponents combined, as he stepped in on four days’ notice to face Mason Jones, 19 days’ notice to fight Gabriel Benitez, had an opponent change four days out when he faced Garrett Armfield, and had 24 days to prepare for Landwehr. Onama is still just 29 years old and seems like a raw, athletic talent, so he still has time to refine his game and maybe the change in scenery will do him some good, but that remains to be seen.
Fight Prediction:
Santos will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Both of these two are aggressive, offensively-minded fighters and this should be a great fight. Santos will have a grappling advantage and we expect him to be looking to get the fight to the mat, but he’s also shown a willingness to stand and trade with opponents. However, that’s a dangerous game to play with the heavy-handed Onama and Santos almost got knocked out a minute into the first round of his third most recent fight, but was narrowly able to survive off his back and then come back to land a knockout of his own in the opening seconds of round two. That presents a clear path to victory for Onama, who has a 100% finishing rate in his 10 wins, with his last five knockouts all occurring in the first round. However, if Onama is unable to put Santos away early, we like Santos to take over in the later rounds. Perhaps Onama can show improved cardio with a full camp to prepare and now training at altitude at Factory X, but he completely gassed out after the first round in his last fight and only has one career win that lasted longer than eight and a half minutes. We’ve yet to see how he’ll adjust to having a new team around him for the first time in his career, but that also adds some uncertainty to the mix. While Onama has four chokes on his record, we’d be surprised to see him lock something up against Santos unless he has him half unconscious first. So unless Onama can land something clean early and knock Santos out, give us Santos to win this one with either a late round finish or more likely in a hardfought decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Onama R1 KO” at +1000.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Santos nearly pulled off the upset in his recent short notice UFC debut when he went into enemy territory and took on a really tough Lerone Murphy in England. Had the decision gone his way, Santos would have scored 93 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel, but two of the judges scored the fight for Murphy. Santos showed off his grappling upside in that match, as he landed 5 of his 11 takedown attempts and if you watch his regional tape he’s always looking to mix in takedowns. He’s also an aggressive striker and his fighting style looks conducive to DFS scoring production. He’s facing another dangerous opponent here who’s never been finished, but it’s still a step down in competition for Santos from his last fight and now he’ll have a full camp to prepare. Onama gassed out in the back half of his recent loss, and if that happens again Santos would be in a great spot to find a late finish. With the Jacksonville crowd egging him on, there’s a chance Santos could get sucked into a firefight, which would be the riskiest approach he could take, but also the most entertaining. If that does happen, it won’t be at all shocking to see Onama knock Santos out, which makes it tougher to trust Santos’ scoring floor and he’s more of a tournament play for us. The odds imply Santos has a 66% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Onama has averaged 108 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins and all 10 of his pro victories have ended early, with nine of those finishes coming in the first two rounds. After going completely overlooked by the field in his short notice UFC debut where he was just 13% owned on DraftKings, we’ve since seen Onama check in at 45%, 48%, and 55% ownership. However, he also had three straight impressive performances leading up to his recent collapse, so it will be interesting to see how owned he is here. Considering he’s priced at just $7,000 on DraftKings, we’re expecting the field to stay on him and he should be owned well above his chances of finding the finish he needs to score well. Also working against Onama, we expect Santos to be looking to take him down, which will stifle Onama’s ability to rack up strikes and look for knockout shots. And while Onama has a decent guillotine, we’d be surprised if Santos allowed him to lock anything up. That appears to leave Onama as an early KO or bust play, but he’ll always have a puncher’s chance. This will also be the first time he hasn’t had James Krause in his corner, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to the corner work of Factory X’s Marc Montoya instead. The fact that Onama is now training at altitude also has the potential to help his cardio, which looked dreadful in his last match, although that remains to be seen. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Justin Tafa
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Coming off back-to-back R1 KO wins over a pair of sloppy Heavyweights, Tafa knocked out both Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker in under two minutes. Tafa’s recent win over Porter came in front of Tafa’s home Australian crowd and Porter came lunging in like he was trying to get knocked out and that’s exactly what happened. That win came 14 months after Tafa knocked out one of the worst UFC Heavyweights we’ve ever seen in Harry Hunsucker. Prior to the pair of quick finishes, Tafa lost back-to-back decisions against low-level Heavyweights in Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe. Tafa’s only other UFC win was a R1 knockout of Juan Adams who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released after his third straight loss when he was knocked out by Tafa. That came just after Tafa got knocked out in the first round of his 2019 UFC debut by Yorgan De Castro, who was also debuting and then lost his next three fights before being cut. So Tafa has exclusively fought low-level opponents in his six UFC fights and still only won half of those matches. Tafa won his first three pro fights on the Australian regional scene, all in the first two rounds, before surprisingly getting called up to the UFC with just three fights on his record.
Now 6-3 as a pro, all six of Tafa’s career wins have come by KO/TKO, with four ending in round one and two in round two. All three of his UFC knockout wins ended in under two minutes. He’s also been knocked out once himself in the first round and lost both of the decisions he’s been to. The only time he’s ever won a fight that made it longer than five and a half minutes was in his 2017 pro debut when he landed a knockout at the 8:35 mark.
Overall, Tafa is your stereotypical Heavyweight kickboxer who’s mostly just looking to land heavy bombs on the feet. He did mix it up a little in his fight against Felipe as he attempted two takedowns, but he failed to land either and those are his only two takedown attempts in six UFC fights. He’s also only faced two attempts against him, successfully defending both of those. The striking exchanges are generally pretty active in his fights as he averages 5.09 SSL/min and 5.95 SSA/min, although those numbers are also bolstered by the fact that we’ve seen very little control time in any of his matches.
Austen Lane
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut in front of his home Jacksonville crowd, Lane is coming off a R1 TKO win on DWCS and has finished six straight opponents. However, he’s also been facing some very dubious competition and his wins have failed to impress. He started out his recent DWCS match by landing one of the most devastating low blows you’ll ever see. Once action resumed, he then proceeded to get taken down and controlled, before he was able to reverse the position and land a ground and pound finish. Prior to that, he technically won by R1 TKO but only because his opponent blew out his knee 99 seconds into the first round. Looking back one fight further, he outlasted a terrible Juan Adams, who took Lane down four times and controlled him for three straight rounds before gassing out and getting finished in the opening minute of round four in a five-round Fury FC “title fight”. Alex Morono was calling the fight and even he didn’t realize the fight was five rounds until mid way through. Lane’s last loss came in a 2020 R1 TKO via ground and pound where he got dominated on the mat, which has been an ongoing problem for him. Lane was also the first fighter to welcome Greg Hardy into MMA, when they both went on DWCS for the first time back in 2018 and Hardy knocked Lane out in just 57 seconds. Lane had originally been scheduled to make his UFC debut against Justin Tafa’s brother, Junior Tafa, back in February. However, Lane tore his bicep and was forced to drop out as he underwent surgery. He said the doctors told him it would be a 5-6 month recovery, but he was cleared after three months. We’ll see if there are any lingering effects from the injury.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Lane has 11 wins by KO/TKO and one by submission. Eight of his knockouts occurred in round one, two ended in round two, and one came in round four. His lone submission win came in a 2021 first round rear-naked choke. All three of his losses ended in first round knockouts.
Overall, Lane is a tall, rangy, low-level Heavyweight whose background is in football as he got drafted by Jacksonville in 2010 and played DL for various NFL teams before retiring from football in 2015. Lane has looked incredibly prone to getting taken down and has been bad on the mat outside of landing an occasional reversal or looking for a kimura. He’s also a pretty wild and aggressive striker who likes to throw kicks and is at least athletic for the division. While he’s really tall at 6’6”, he generally shows up 20-25 lb under the Heavyweight limit, which likely contributes to him being controlled on the mat by heavier opponents. It looks like he’s been trying to add some offensive grappling to his game, as he began shooting for takedowns in his last two fights. Nevertheless, our expectations for Lane are incredibly low and we don’t see him finding any longer success in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Lane will have a 6” height and reach advantage, while Tafa is six years younger than the 35-year-old Lane.
The UFC apparently ran out of low-level Heavyweights on the current roster that Tafa could actually beat so they’ve started bringing in new guys to face him. Neither of these two have impressed us but Tafa is the more proven as he’s at least found some success in the UFC, even if it’s against some of the worst guys in the division. Lane has looked bad both on the feet and the mat, but at least he shouldn’t have to worry about getting taken down much as Tafa has never landed a takedown in the UFC. Tafa looks to have the power advantage and Lane doesn’t seem to have a great chin, so there’s a good chance Tafa lands another early knockout. However, you never know what’s going to happen in low-level Heavyweight fights and either guy could knock out the other or they could both slow down in the later rounds and this could end with the judges, despite the fact Lane has never required them in the past. With that said, Lane’s finish or get finished mentality combined with the fact that he’ll be making his UFC debut on the main card in front of his home crowd should have him forcing the action to the extent that someone goes down. We’ll say Tafa knocks him out in round one, but we don’t trust either of these two.
Our favorite bet here is “X” at +Y.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Tafa has been a R1 KO or bust play throughout his career, with all three of his UFC wins ending in first round knockout. Those three finishes returned DraftKings scores of 103, 104, and 104 points, so he’s been remarkably consistent with his scoring. All three of those knockouts occurred in the second minute of fights and he’s been 59 seconds, 53 seconds, and six seconds away respectively from attaining the Quick Win Bonus. So he’s been creeping closer and closer to finding the finish he needs in the opening 60 seconds to really put up a slate-breaking score, but he’s also been finishing fights too quickly to land much volume leading up to his knockouts. So as first round finishes go, his timing couldn’t be any worse for DFS. That just means we’ve seen his first round knockout scoring floor, but not his ceiling and there’s no reason he can’t eventually improve his timing. The UFC continues to try and build him up by feeding him the easiest matchups they can find and now they’re bringing in a hometown newcomer who’s been knocked out in the first round in all three of his pro losses. While Tafa’s never a guy we can fully trust to win, this sets up as a great matchup for him with a high chance he lands another early knockout. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.
Lane is tall, long, and fairly athletic for a Heavyweight, but has done literally nothing to impress us. He’s terrible off his back, wild on his feet, and has shown a suspect chin. He’s been fighting a low level of competition and still just barely squeaking by in many of those fights. He only turned pro in 2017 after retiring from the NFL in 2015, so maybe he’s still improving, but he’s already 35 years old so it’s not like he’s some young prospect. It seems like the UFC just needs to rotate in low-level Heavyweights to feed to the rest of the division and who better than a hometown Jacksonville guy who will get the crowd amped up? Tafa isn’t talented enough for us to say Lane can’t land something clean and knock him out, but we’d be somewhat surprised to see it happen. Lane did start mixing in a couple of takedown attempts in his last two fights, but his ground game is still terrible and we’ve yet to see Tafa get taken down in the UFC. At his cheap price tag, if Lane surprisingly wins a high-volume decision he could potentially serve as a value play, but his next fight to go the distance will also be his first. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Amanda Ribas
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Fresh off a decision win over Viviane Araujo, Ribas nearly landed a finish as she hurt Araujo early in round two, but couldn’t quite get her out of there and instead controlled her on the mat for the entire round as she cruised to a unanimous decision win. Prior to that, moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb and took on perennial FLyweight contender Katlyn Chookagian in her first fight at the new weight class. It looked like Ribas had done enough to win a decision, two of the three judges disagreed and Chookagian won a split decision. Ribas originally joined the UFC in 2019 and won her first four fights, before getting knocked out by Marina Rodriguez in 2021. She bounced back with a decision win over Virna Jandiroba, before moving up to 125 lb.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Ribas has two TKO wins (R1 2014 & R2 2016), four submissions, and five decisions. She’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. One of her KO losses came in the first round of a 2015 fight against Polyana Viana before either of them joined the UFC, while the other occurred in the opening minute of round two against Marina Rodriguez. So both of her early career losses ended in under six minutes. All six of her early wins also came in the first halves of fights, including four in round one and two early in round two. Ribas spent almost all of her career at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb in 2022, but did fight a terrible Paige VanZant at 125 lb in 2020 and landed a first round submission.
Overall, Ribas is the most dangerous on the ground. While her striking isn’t terrible, she’s been pretty hittable on the feet and got knocked down in each of her last two 115 lb fights before moving up a weight class. She holds black belts in both Judo and BJJ and likes to look for head and arm throws. In her eight UFC fights, she’s landed 13 of her 25 takedown attempts (52% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in all eight of her fights. Her opponents have only been able to get her down on 2 of their 17 attempts (88.2% defense). Whoever has finished ahead in significant strikes has won all eight of her matches.
Maycee Barber
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Coming off a close/questionable split decision win over Andrea Lee, Barber has now gone the distance in six straight matches, winning the last four of those. Lee was able to take Barber down on all five of her attempts and control her for over five minutes, while Barber landed both of her takedown attempts as well and finished ahead in striking. Prior to that close fight, Barber won a low-volume, clinch-heavy decision win over Jessica Eye, after winning a grappling-heavy decision over Montana De La Rosa, and another close/controversial split decision over Miranda Maverick. The last time Barber lost a fight was against Alexa Grasso in early 2021, in Barber’s first fight back following knee surgery resulting from an injury she suffered early in a decision loss to Roxanne Modafferi. Barber hasn’t finished anybody since 2019, when she knocked out Gillian Robertson in the first round, just before suffering the knee injury against Modafferi in 2020. Barber came into the UFC in 2018 following a third round TKO win on DWCS, and proceeded to land three more TKOs against Hanna Cifers, J.J. Aldrich, and Gillian Robertson, but hasn’t finished anybody since injuring her knee. Barber’s confidence seemed shot after the injury, but she’s slowly been getting it back every time she steps inside the Octagon. In 2021 she moved from Roufusport to Team Alpha Male, and the change seems to be doing her some good and putting more of an emphasis on her wrestling.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Barber has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and five decision victories. She’s never been finished and both of her losses ended in decisions. Barber’s two submission wins both came in the first round of her first three pro fights. Her last five finishes have all come by TKO, with four of those knockouts coming in the later rounds.
Overall, Barber has proven herself to be a dangerous striker and has been rounding out her game with more of an emphasis on wrestling lately, although her defensive wrestling looked pretty rough in her last outing. After landing just one takedown in her first four UFC fights combined, Barber has landed seven takedowns on 17 attempts in her last five matches. Between her nine UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, Barber has landed 10 of her 27 takedown attempts (37% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on 9 of their 17 attempts (47.1% defense). She’s been taken down in each of her last four fights, but prior to Lee taking her down five times she had never been taken down more than once in a match. Barber had talked about moving back down to down to 115 lb after her last fight, but clearly that didn’t happen. It seemed like Barber was overextending with her striking combinations in her last match and lunging into Lee’s takedowns attempts. You have to imagine she’ll work on improving that here as she takes on a much more dangerous grappler.
Fight Prediction:
Barber will have a 2” height advantage, but Ribas will have a 1” reach advantage.
If one thing is clear, it’s that the judges absolutely love Maycee Barber, so maybe we should all just stop fighting as all of the close decisions will inevitably go her way. Ribas has a clear grappling advantage in this matchup, but if Barber can shore up her takedown defense, she should have the striking advantage and has a clear path to victory on the feet. Ribas isn’t a bad striker by any means, but she has been a bit chinny at times and also doesn’t throw with as much power as Barber. So the winner here will likely be determined by the level of success that Ribas has in getting the fight to the mat. We expect Ribas will land at least one takedown, the question will be whether or not she can become just the second UFC fighter to land multiple takedowns against Barber. We think it will be close, and in close fights it appears foolish to bet against Barber based on her history with the judges. Give us Barber in another close, potentially split, decision. It also won’t be entirely shocking if Barber knocks Ribas out in the later rounds of this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Barber DEC” at +420.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Ribas has averaged 97 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins and is coming off a career-best 116 point DraftKings performance where she filled up the statsheet in a decision victory. Prior to that, she had never topped 106 points and only scored 75 and 79 points in two of her decision wins. However she’s now scored 101 or more points in four of her six UFC victories and has shown really solid overall scoring potential. She’s a very dangerous grappler and a decent striker, with her only weakness being her chin. She arguably should be 7-1 in the UFC instead of 6-2, had a split decision against Katlyn Chookagian gone her way. A big factor in her ability to score well in decisions is her control time and ground strikes and she does a good job of racking up DraftKings points on the mat. When she can’t dominate fights on the ground, she hasn’t shown much of a ceiling, so it will be essential for her to get this fight to the ground. Working in her favor, Barber just got taken down five times by a striker in Andrea Lee. The odds imply Ribas has a 64% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one. Ribas ranks much better on DraftKings than on FanDuel in the Model, which makes total sense based on her grappling-heavy style.
Barber has historically been a KO or bust fighter who has relied on TKO stoppages to return useful scores. Her three finishes in the UFC were good for 111, 93, and 105 DraftKings points, while her four decision wins scored just 69, 63, 79, and 54 points. She’s failed to top 79 DraftKings points in six straight fights and all of her finishes came before she blew out her knee in 2020. While she has shown more of a commitment to her wrestling lately and has started landing more takedowns than earlier in her career, this is not a fight where she will want to go to the mat. She’ll also have to devote a lot more energy to not getting taken down herself, which has the potential to slow things down and really limit her scoring potential in a decision. So we’re again treating her as a KO or bust option despite her cheap price tag. Working in her favor, Ribas has been a bit chinny at times and has two knockout losses on her record, although both of those came at 115 lb when she was cutting more weight. She’s actually looked more durable so far at 125 lb, although it’s been a smaller sample size to look at. The odds imply Barber has a 36% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Ilia Topuria
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Continuing to keep his undefeated record intact, Topuria recently became the first fighter to ever finish Bryce Mitchell when he emphatically locked up an arm-triangle choke against Mitchell midway through the second round last December. We did see Topuria get taken down for the first time in his UFC career in that fight, but Mitchell was only able to land one of his nine attempts and Topuria was never in any danger. Prior to that, Topuria took a fight up at 155 lb for the first and only time in his career when he faced Jai Herbert on a month’s notice. Herbert actually dropped Topuria in the first round and if Topuria hadn’t been able to take Herbert down to buy time to recover, he likely would have gotten finished on the feet. However, he was able to use his grappling to buy time, and then he violently sent Herbert into another dimension early in round two with a devastating combination of punches. That’s the only time Topuria has faced a real striker in the UFC, as he landed a pair of first round knockouts against grapplers Ryan Hall and Damon Jackson just before that. His one other win came in his short notice UFC debut, where he took on a cardio machine with no knockout power in Youssef Zalal. After absolutely dominating the first two rounds, Topuria saw the third round for the first time in his career and gassed hard. He was so tired that he was somewhat fortunate not to get finished, although Zalal isn’t any sort of finishing threat. A more dangerous opponent likely would have put Topuria away in the closing minutes of that fight, but in fairness to Topuria he took the fight on eight days’ notice.
Now 13-0 as a pro, Topuria has four wins by KO, eight submissions, and one decision. Nine of his 12 finishes have come in the first round, with the other three ending in round two. He’s coming off the latest finish of his career, which occurred at the 8:10 mark. While that recent win ended in a submission, his previous four finishes all came by knockout, after the first seven of his career all ended in submissions. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than nine minutes, which was the decision win in his UFC debut. Topuria fought some at 135 lb early in his career, but has been at 145 lb since 2019, other than the one fight he took up at 155 lb in 2022.
This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Topuria’s career and first in the UFC. His first fight scheduled to go five rounds was with Cage Warriors and he landed a first round submission in 99 seconds. He does not appear to have anything resembling five rounds of cardio.
Overall, Topuria is a well rounded BJJ black belt with dangerous grappling and dynamite in his hands. He’s still just 26 years old, so should be improving between every fight, which has to be a scary thought for the rest of the division. Despite only being 5’7”, it looks like he cuts a lot of weight to get down to 145 lb. That caused him to drop out of a 145 lb UFC fight during weigh-ins once in the past and the tougher cut also likely drains on his chin and cardio. He’s unbelievably dangerous in the first two rounds, but we do wonder how he’ll look in the third round with a full camp to prepare. The only time he’s seen the third round was on short notice and he completely gassed in that fight, but simply hung on to win a decision. His striking defense appears to be his one other weakness, as he got dropped badly by Jai Herbert the only time he’s faced a UFC opponent with any legitimate striking ability. Topuria puts everything he has into all of his punches, often overswinging when he misses and leaving his chin exposed. That also can’t help his cardio and taking a little bit off his shots would likely benefit him in multiple ways long term. With that said, the guy throws absolute hammers and rips absolutely devastating body shots. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed 6 of his 13 takedown attempts (46.2% accuracy), although five of those came in his UFC debut and he’s only landed one takedown in his last four fights. That was against a one-dimensional striker in Jai Herbert who had Topuria badly hurt to force the shot. Topuria hasn’t even attempted a takedown in three of his last four fights, although it’s important to point out that all three of those fights were against grapplers who had no chance of competing with Topuria on the feet. He has an elite 92.9% takedown defense and has only been taken down once on 14 opponent attempts. Topuria is someone to watch closely at weigh-ins as he’s struggled with cutting in the past.
Josh Emmett
13th UFC Fight (9-3)Now 38 years old, Emmett is coming off a second round submission loss to Yair Rodriguez for the interim Featherweight belt that was put on the line while the real champ in Volkanovski made a trip up to Lightweight. There were rumors going into that fight that Emmett had a hip injury, although we never heard anything official on that. However, he did slow down in round two and Rodriguez easily took over and subbed Emmett off his back after landing a flying knee that Emmett used to land a takedown. Prior to that loss, Emmett had won five fights, with his last three wins all ending in close decisions. The most recent of those came in a close/questionable five-round split-decision over Calvin Kattar, who outlanded Emmett 130-107 in significant strikes in the pure striking battle with no takedowns landed by either fighter. Chris Lee criminally scored R4 for Emmett, despite Kattar landing twice as many strikes in the round, and that ultimately turned the decision in Emmett’s favor. Just before that, Emmett won a close three-round decision over Dan Ige, where Emmett started strong but got hurt by Ige in round two to make the fight even going into the third. Ige was announced as a -295 favorite on the live line going into the final five minutes and finished the round slightly ahead in striking, but all three judges scored the lackluster round for Emmett and awarded him the decision. That was Emmett’s first fight back after suffering a knee injury in a decision win over Shane Burgos in June 2020. Emmett then dealt with multiple complications after having surgery resulting in a year and a half layoff. The last time Emmett finished anybody was in 2019, when he knocked out Mirsad Bektic in the first round.
Now 18-3 as a pro, Emmett has six wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (2018 R2), submitted once (2023 R2), and has one decision loss (2017). Both of Emmett’s submission wins occurred in the first round of fights earlier in his career (2013 & 2015), prior to joining the UFC. Four of his six knockouts also occurred in the first round, while the other two came in round three. Ten of his 12 UFC fights have seen the second round, with eight making it to round three, and seven going the distance. Emmett turned pro in 2011 at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2014 for his 5th pro fight. He stayed at 155 lb until 2017, when he dropped back down to 145 lb for his 4th UFC match. After starting his UFC career 2-1 in three decisions at 155 lb, he’s since gone 7-2 at 145 lb, with four of those fights ending in knockouts (3-1), four ending in decision wins, and his most recent ending in a submission loss.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Emmett’s career (3-2), and fourth in the UFC (1-2). In his two fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, Emmett won a 2014 technical decision in a fight that was stopped 24 seconds into round five and then later landed a 2016 third round knockout. In his first UFC five rounder, Emmett got knocked out by Jeremy Stephens in the second round, before winning a questionable split decision over Kattar in his next five-round fight, and then getting submitted in the second round of his most recent five-round match. In reality, Emmett should be 0-3 in UFC five-round fights if the Kattar fight was scored correctly.
Overall, Emmett is a former college wrestler but relies mostly on his striking to win fights. He loads up with most of his shots and has a ton of power, as he’s currently tied for the all time Featherweight knockdown record at 11. However, after landing at least one knockdown in each of his first seven UFC Featherweight fights, he failed to land one in either of his last two matches. In his 12 UFC fights, Emmett has landed 11 of his 29 takedown attempts (37.9% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 5 of their 12 attempts (58.3% defense). However, most of the those takedowns came in his three UFC fights at 155 lb and in his nine fights since dropping down to 145 lb he’s only landed 3 of his 14 takedown attempts (21.4% accuracy), while his opponents have only gotten him down on 1 of 5 attempts (80% defense). Just keep in mind, seven of his last eight opponents didn’t even try to take him down and the the guy that did was Dan Ige, who landed one of his four attempts and has just a 26% career takedown accuracy. At 38 years old, it’s unclear how much longer Emmett plans to continue fighting and his best days are likely behind him. He still has power in his hands, but he’s basically a one-trick pony and has looked less dangerous as fights go on.
Fight Prediction:
Topuria will have a 1” height advantage, but Emmett will have a 1” reach advantage. Topuria is 12 years younger than the 38-year-old Emmett.
Topuria has primarily been facing grapplers since joining the UFC and the one time he took on a striker he got dropped in the first round, although in fairness that fight was at 155 lb. Nevertheless, his striking defense appears to be one of his areas of weakness, which isn’t ideal when you’re going up against a power puncher like Emmett. Topuria’s other deficiency is his cardio, and he’s yet to show he can remain dangerous after the second round, although he’s only been in one fight that even made it to round three. He’s insanely dangerous in those opening 10 minutes, both on the feet and the mat, and Emmett has been finished in the second round in each of his last two losses. It will be interesting to see how Emmett’s defensive wrestling holds up and while his career takedown defense is just 58%, that number has risen to 80% since he dropped down to 145 lb. However, we also haven’t seen it tested very often so it’s hard to feel confident one way or the other. When his last fight did hit the mat, Emmett got quickly submitted despite holding top position, which isn’t encouraging for his chances here if Topuria can get him down. However, Topuria has been largely content with keeping fights standing over his last four matches, as he only landed one total takedown in those fights. So it remains to be seen what his approach will be here and we could see him knocking Emmett out or submitting him. Things could also get dicey if we see a third round. Topuria was completely gassed in the third round of his short notice UFC debut, which is the only time he’s been in a fight that lasted that long. And on the other side of things, Emmett has shown the ability to go five rounds, but also looked to be slowing down in the second round of his last fight, so who knows what his conditioning will look like. It’s possible we see one or both guys look to pace themselves more, which could result in a slower start. If this were Emmett five years ago, we’d give him more of a chance to land a knockout, but he looks to be slowing down some in his late 30s and Topuria is just so dangerous. We’ll say Topuria finishes Emmett in round two, although it’s hard to say if it will come by submission or knockout as they’re both in play.
Our favorite bet here is “Topuria R2” at +430.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Topuria has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins and 103 points in his four finishes. Twelve of his 13 pro wins have ended in the first two rounds and the one time he saw the third round he looked exhausted, but in fairness, that was in his short notice UFC debut. Regardless, he looks reliant on landing early finishes to win fights and he’s given us zero indication that he can go three hard rounds, let alone five. Therefore, there’s likely no added benefit for him having the additional two rounds to work with, and to some extent, it could be a hindrance as that’s two more rounds for him to gas out and get finished if he can’t end things early. Three rounds or five, we’re playing Topuria for his ability to land finishes inside of two. He only averages 3.32 SSL/min, with just one takedown landed in his last four matches, so it’s not as if he’s been filling up the stat sheets in his wins, and he’s never landed more than 40 significant strikes in a UFC fight. His last three wins returned DK/FD scores of 101/116, 100/105, and 100/111. So as the most expensive fighter on the card there are lots of ways for him to land another finish here and still get priced out of tournament winning lineups. And with that in mind, the last two times he was priced above 9K on DraftKings he got left out of the winning lineup, despite landing a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds. This will also be the first time he’s been booked to go five rounds in the UFC and he’s facing the most dangerous striker he’s seen to this point. Both of those create the possibility for him to come out slightly less aggressively, as he may want to pace himself a little more, while also avoiding running into a power punch from Emmett. Or he could just immediately shoot for a takedown, only time will tell. But if he does slow things down some early, he’ll have an even tougher time returning value and he’s already only topped 101 DraftKings points once in five UFC appearances. Topuria has been consistently popular in DFS going back to his UFC debut, and the only times we’ve seen his ownership dip some is when he’s facing grapplers like Bryce Mitchell and Ryan Hall. We expect he’ll be very popular here, with his ownership surpassing his chances of cracking tournament winning lineups. He looks like a better play in smaller contests, where you don’t have to hit the actual nuts to win. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 64% chance to land a finish, and a 35% chance it comes in round one.
Emmett is known for his devastating power, but seems to be slowing down at 38 years old and hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2019. His last three wins all ended in close decisions and since coming back from knee surgery he failed to top 73 DraftKings in his last two wins, despite the most recent of those going five rounds. He’s also coming off the first submission loss of his career and looked pretty lost on the mat, which isn’t a good sign as he prepares to take on an extremely dangerous BJJ black belt in Topuria here. We see two possible ways for Emmett to win this fight. The first is to land a hail mary knockout in the opening round when Emmett is the most dangerous. If that happens, he’ll be a lock to end up in winning lineups as the cheapest fighter on the card. The second way we see him winning is by simply outlasting Topuria, who’s given us no indication that his cardio will hold up after two rounds. Emmett has only landed one UFC finish beyond the second round, which was a 2019 knockout that only scored 64 DraftKings points. That seems flukishly low, but also shows one way he wins and still fails to put up a useful score. Emmett also scored just 73 DraftKings in his last five-round decision, but in the past had shown the ability to score well in decisions when he’s able to land more volume and tack on knockdowns. He’s still never landed more than a single takedown in a 145 lb fight and we don’t expect him to be looking for any takedowns here. He also appears to be declining at this stage in his career and was tiring in the second round of his last fight before getting finished. So we don’t really want to rely very heavily on his gas tank winning him the fight here, although it’s definitely possible. With that said, we’d be surprised to see this fight make it to the third round, and we’re approaching Emmett as more or less of an early KO or bust play who may be getting worse every time we see him and has the potential to retire in the not too distant future if he suffers another loss or two. While Emmett would be a solid tournament leverage play if he wins, the best leverage option here is probably simply being underweight on the fight. The odds imply Emmett has a 26% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
We recently partnered with PrizePicks, who offer a new way to play DFS. Instead of competing against other users, you simply pick the over/under on two or more fighters' stat lines (i.e. fight time or fantasy points scored). Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Cody Brundage OVER 93.5 Pts
For the rest of our top PrizePicks plays check out our DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content at: patreon.com/mmadfs.
