The Sheet

Jordan Wright

#139 Middleweight

Stepping into this fight on extremely short notice, agreeing to it on Tuesday due to Jorge Gonzalaz withdrawing, Wright is is moving up from 185 lb to 205 lb. He has fought at 205 lb in the past but his past four fights have been at 185 lb.

His only career loss, which was later overturned to a No Contest, came in 2018 on the Contender Series at the hands of Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez via a R1 40 second KO. After a 19 month layoff and a switch in gyms Wright bounced back with a R2 KO against unimpressive Gabriel Checco. It's worth noting, that was the first time any of Wright's pro fights made it out of the first round.

Not counting the No Contest, he previously had nine wins with all nine ending in R1 by KO or Submission (five submissions & four KO's). However, on closer investigation that impressive winning streak is padded by a sea of inexperienced (or experienced at losing) fighters. Here are the records of those nine opponents starting at the beginning of Wright's career: 0-0, 0-0, 0-5, 0-0, 0-21, 0-10, 0-0, 1-2, 7-3. With an unbelievably bad 1-38 combined record from his first eight opponents it's hard to take much from those wins.

The first true test Wright was given came against Hernandez and it was immediately clear Wright was overmatched as he was viciously KO'd in just 40 seconds.

From a DFS perspective Wright still presents some interesting upside for both himself and his opponent. He's a guy that tries to go for early finishes and also seems to lack the defense to protect himself from getting dropped. It's unlikely this fight goes the distance and has tons of R1 finishing upside. Ike will be the bigger guy in this fight and we like his chances for an early KO.

Joe Solecki

#90 Lightweight

Solecki comes in on a four fight win streak and absolutely dominated in his smothering UFC debut against 36-year-old UFC journeyman Matt Wiman (10-7 UFC record over 14-years). Solecki lead that fight in total strikes 177 to 20, significant strikes 56 to 10, takedowns 4/5 to 0/0, and control time 12:01 to 0:07 (it would of been more if the ref didn't stand things up in R2).

Solecki should look to take this match to the ground early and keep it there. 6 of his 9 career wins have come by submission (4 Rear-Naked Chokes, 1 Triangle Choke & 1 Guillotine Choke). However, 2 of his last 3 wins have come by decision and that's what we're expecting in this fight; another lopsided control-time decision win for Joe Solecki.

Austin Hubbard

#67 Lightweight

Coming off a R2 banishment win over Max "I don't want to be here" Rohskopf, Hubbard comes into this fight as a slight underdog. He'll have a tougher matchup this go around and we think Hubbard continues his pattern of alternating wins and losses.

Hubbard has done a great job of winning the fights he's supposed to win (both UFC wins came as a favorite), while also preventing advanced grapplers, such as Davi Ramos and Olympic medalist Mark O. Madesen, from being able to submit him.

Hubbard has only been finished early once in his 16 fight pro career and that came 8 fights before joining the UFC. Prior to Rohskopf calling it quits between rounds in their last fight, all three of Hubbard's UFC fights had ended in decisions (as did 3 of his last 4 fights just before joining the UFC).

This fights seems destined for a decision. If Solecki can continue to dominate on the ground he should cruise to a decision.

Mizuki Inoue

#42 Flyweight

Mizuki is a year removed since her UFC debut and most recent trip into the Octagon. That victory was at 125 lb instead of 115 lb which she normally fights at. She's an Armbar submission specialist with 8 of her 9 submission wins ending in armbars.

She seems to lack KO power in her striking as all of her fights that haven't ended in a submission win have gone to decision. She's been very durable over her career though, and has never been finished early. She was notably able go five full rounds with submission machine Virna Jandiroba, who submitted UFC veteran Felice Herrig in less than two minutes into R1 last week. Mizuki did ultimately lose by split decision to Virna, however that is Mizuki's only loss in her last 7 fights.

Six of her last nine fights have gone to decision, including the most recent three. The remaining three were all Armbar submission victories. Four of her nine submission victories came in R1 but three of those were in her first five pro fights (2010-2013) and she only has one R1 win (2016) in her last 14 fights.

Amanda Lemos

#25 Strawweight

Waiting to turn pro until she was 27 years old, Lemos didn't waste any time starting off her pro career with five straight R1 victories (four KOs & one Guillotine Choke). 8 of her 9 career fights have ended early, including the last three.

Lemos' first career loss came by way of R2 KO in her UFC debut against a relentless Leslie Smith. A few months after Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension for testing positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon. In her return she dropped down to 115 lb after fighting at 135 lb her entire career prior. In her return we didn't see the high volume blitzing striker we were used to, however the fight quickly turned into a grappling match a minute in so it's hard to know what could have been. Lemos was then able to seemingly out of nowhere put her opponent to sleep in an abrupt submission stoppage.

It's more than fair to question which Lemos we're going to see in this next fight. The ultra aggressive striker she began her career as prior to getting suspended for steroids or the more methodical adaptation we saw most recently. Sticking at 115 lb and presumably off the juice, the old Lemos may be nothing more than a memory. But in fairness, we really didn't get a chance to see her 115 lb stand up game in her last fight due to how quickly it went to the ground and ended.

It's an unfairly small sample size but in Lemos' first UFC fight prior to getting busted for steroids, she landed 8.88 SS/min in a 7 minute and 53 second loss. In her second UFC fight, post suspension/steroids, she landed 2.15 SS/min in a 3 minute and 43 second win. Again, there was only a minute of stand up before that most recent fight went to the ground and ultimately ended but Lemos was clearly much less aggressive in that minute.

This fight has a wide range of potential outcomes and we'd be lying if we said we knew how it would play out. The only thing that's certain is if Lemos can guard against the Armbar then she'll have every opportunity to win this fight.

Daniel Rodriguez

#46 Welterweight

UPDATE: Rodriguez had been scheduled to fight Takashi Sato but Sato dropped out after weigh-ins due to not being medically cleared to fight.

Grant was originally scheduled to fight Gooden, who then dropped out mid week. Gooden was then replaced by Born. Born then dropped out after/during weigh-ins. Now Rodriguez and Grant will fight each other with only one day to adjust game plans!

Rodriguez who was infamously mispriced in his last fight at only $7,300 on DraftKings despite being a huge favorite, due to a late opponent change and was therefor owned by essentially the entire field, comes into this fight with a significantly higher DraftKings price tag at $8,700.

He casually landed a ridiculous 176 significant strikes in that last fight against undersized Gabriel Green en route to dropping 126 DraftKings points in a three round decision.

It's unlikely he can repeat that performance again in this fight against a tougher Grant. Hyped by Dana (before Sato dropped out).

Dwight Grant

#69 Welterweight

Coming off a 16 month layoff Grant's last fight was a coin flip decision win back in April of 2019. He's now won his last two fights and 9 of his last 10. His only two career losses both came by decision and he's never been finished early. Seven of his 10 career wins have come by KO with four of those in R1 including his second UFC fight.

This should be a fun fight to watch, but we're sticking with the favorite D-Rod in this one. It's worth noting that Grant is now extremely overpriced for an underdog on both DFS sites (they don't adjust pricing after the opponent switch) so Grant's ownership will be much lower because of that. That will make him a great low-owned leverage play should he win. On DraftKings Grant is actually more expensive than favorite Rodriguez,

Mariya Agapova

#29 Flyweight

Fighting again two months after a R1 evisceration of undersized Hannah Cifers, Agapova opened as a massive -1000 favorite and was quickly bet up to -1250. Her 9-1 career record includes 7 early wins with 6 coming in R1. Her only pro loss was prior to joining the UFC in a 2019 Contender Series three round decision against Tracy Cortez (7-1, 1-0 in the UFC). Agapova rebounded nicely with three straight R1 wins including her dominating June UFC debut. Hyped by Dana.

Shana Dobson

#51 Flyweight

Suffering three straight losses after winning her UFC debut with a R2 KO, Dobson is looking to bounce back after getting finished early for the first time in her career by way of R1 KO against Priscila Cachoeira who went into that fight with an 0-3 UFC record, albeit at the hands of Valentina Shevchenko, Molly McCann, and Luana Carolina.

Overall Dobson has limited pro fighting experience with only 7 career fights under her belt. Five of those ended in decisions, winning three of them. After winning her UFC debut with a R2 KO, Dobson lost her second UFC fight against Lauren Mueller who defeated her in a three round decision (Mueller then went on to lose her next three fights). Dobson lost her next two after that and could be fighting to stay in the UFC. She was also hyped by Dana but really he was just hyping the fight.

Both of these women are high volume, low defense strikers and if this does make it out of R1 DFS scoring should be bolstered by volume. It's hard to see Dobson winning this fight but hey, sometimes weird shit happens.

Mike Rodriguez

#51 Light Heavywght

Hoping to bounce back after getting KO'd a minute into R1 of his last fight, this matchup looks like one that should end quickly. 12 of Rodriguez's 14 pro fights have ended early with 10 ending in R1 (8-2 in those 10). Despite allegedly being the same height (Rodriguez looks taller) Rodriguez will have an 8.5" reach advantage in this fight.

Marcin Prachnio

#107 Light Heavywght

After getting KO'd in R1 of both of his first two UFC fights, Prachnio needs a win if he wants to stay in the UFC. Battling injuries for a year after his last fight, he's coming off a 23-month layoff since his previous match on 9/15/18 so he will need to shake off the rust quickly in a fight that looks unlikely to go the distance. 14 of his 17 pro fights have ended early with 13 of those ending in R1 (11-2 in those 13). Prior to joining the UFC Prachnio rattled off 8 straight wins with 6 R1 KO's.

This fight could go either way, but where we don't see it going is to a decision. Rodriguez clearly has a better chance at winning if you look at Vegas and ownership but Prachnio makes for an interesting contrarian play. Both guys are potentially fighting for their UFC lives and coming off R1 KO losses. Don't blink.

Alonzo Menifield

#25 Light Heavywght

Former college, CFL and Arena League football player, Menifield's explosive power is clear to anyone that's watched him throw a punch. However what he makes up for in power he lacks in experience, cardio and technique. And his one trick pony approach can be as frustrating as it is exciting as we saw his last time out.

Coming off a disappointing first career loss to Devin Clark by decision just a couple months ago, Menifield will look to get back on track against veteran OSP. Before that last fight Menifield was on a nine fight win streak with all nine coming as early finishes (seven in R1 & two in R2). Clark appeared to lay out a blue print of how you beat Menifield by shooting take downs, tying him up against the cage and testing his gas tank. It will be interesting to see how both Menifield responds and how OSP approaches the fight. In fairness to Menifield he still landed some brutal strikes in R1 against Clark but wasn't quite able to close the deal (props to Clark). Stepping in on short notice won't do Menifield any favors in preparing for OSP.

While some recent burn victims may turn down their exposure, we expect Menefield's mid tier-price and one-punch KO ability to drive up his ownership beyond his actual chances of scoring a R1 KO. If this fight makes it past R1 it's unlikely either guy ends up in the optimal DraftKings lineup.

Ovince Saint Preux

#64 Heavyweight

UPDATE: OSP has just tested positive for COVID and this fight is OFF!

Dropping back down to light heavyweight after a failed attempt at moving up to heavyweight (a decision loss to Ben Rothwell), OSP comes in a loser of 3 of the last 4, and 4 of his last 6 fights. After starting his UFC career 7-2, he's gone 5-7 since fighting Jon Jones in 2016. Now 37 years old, you have to wonder how many wins OSP has left in him.

The one bright spot for DFS purposes is OSP's last five wins all came early, with a R3 KO and four submissions (two in R1 & two in R2). Three of those submissions came via his patented Von Flue Choke with the fourth coming by Armbar. However, despite the early finishes none of those wins scored over 100 points on DraftKings.

OSP has only been KO'd twice in 38 fights as a pro. The first time was a R2 KO before joining the UFC in 2009 against Virgil Zwicker, who has 13 of 17 wins by KO. His only UFC KO loss came in 2016 against another KO specialist Jimi Manuwa (15 of 17 wins by KO), also in R2. Win or lose, OSP is not an easy guy to knock out. Here are some of his past opponents who he's taken to a decision: Ben Rothwell (28 of 38 wins by KO), Dominick Reyes (7 of 12 wins by KO), Volkan Oezdemir (12 of 17 wins by KO). Note Reyes was very close to getting a KO, knocking down OSP right before the horn at the end of the fight in what looked like it could have been called a KO.

OSP has been finished early twice in his last four losses but both times were by submission, which is definitely not what power-puncher Alonzo Menifield is known for (he did however have one Rear-Naked Choke submission pre UFC). If OSP can survive R1 we think he wins this fight either by submission or taking it to a decision.

Pedro Munhoz

#4 Bantamweight

Coming off a three round decision loss to Aljamain Sterling back in June of 2019, Munhoz hasn't fought in a little over 14 months. This fight was originally scheduled for fight island on 7/11/20, then rescheduled for 7/15/20, then canceled because Munhoz TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID, then rescheduled for 8/15/20, before getting pushed back again to 8/22/20. He claimed to have had mild COVID symptoms and said a week later he tested negative and that it didn't have a major impact on training. However, you would have to imagine that it had some impact on his training and cardio going into a 5 round fight.

7-2 in his last 9 fights, Munhoz won his three fights prior to the Sterling loss, with his most recent two wins coming by way of R1 KO. Albeit with the last one coming against glass-chinned Cody Garbrandt. Munhoz has never been finished early as a pro with all four of his losses coming by decision.

Frankie Edgar

#34 Featherweight

Joining the UFC in 2007, the first time Edgar was finished early didn't come until 2018 on his 23rd UFC fight against Brian Ortega by way of R1 KO. He bounced back with a decision win over against Cub Swanson. Now he's coming off consecutive losses against world class competition in Max Holloway and most recently The Koraen Zombie who KO'd in R1. At age 38 and loser of 3 of his last 4, and 4 of his last 7 fights it's fair to wonder if he has much left with only one win in the last three years.

Edgar fought at 155 lb from the beginning of his career until the Jose Aldo fight in 2013 when he dropped down to 145 lb. He had lost his two fights prior to that, both to Benson Henderson, and then lost to Jose Aldo after the weight cut. His record at 155 lb was 9-3-1, and since went 8-5 at 145 lb. Now he's dropping down to 135 lb for the first time.

There was a lot of talk today about how good Edgar looked at weigh-ins but we think it's just noise. Give us Munhoz in this one.