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Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Stewart Nicoll
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut in front of his home Australian crowd, Nicoll is undefeated as a pro, but remains largely untested. He only has eight pro fights and just one of his first six opponents came in with a winning record, which was 3-1 Jamie Renouf who took Nicoll to a five-round decision. Nicoll slowed down late in that fight after eating a knee to the face on a takedown attempt and didn’t look great in the later rounds, but still got his hand raised. He followed that up with four straight TKO wins on the mat in the first two rounds and has rarely been extended in fights.
Now 8-0 as a pro, Nicoll has four KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and one decision victory. After he submitted his first three pro opponents, his last four finishes all came via TKO. Five of his seven finishes ended in round one, with another coming late in round two, and the last early in round three.
Overall, Nicoll is an Australian grappler and BJJ black belt who is always looking to get fights to the ground. He looked super green earlier in his career, but he’s definitely been making improvements and has looked better in his recent wins, although he also hasn’t been facing the toughest competition. He’ll relentlessly look to chain wrestle until he can control opponents on the mat, and will then attack with both submission attempts and ground and pound. However, he doesn’t look like an especially dangerous striker and we also saw him slow down in his one fight to make it past the 11:06 mark. It will be interesting to see how he looks against tougher competition in the UFC, but he’s still only 29 years old and should be continuing to improve all the time. He said that he’ll be looking for another TKO on the mat in this fight.
Jesus Aguilar
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Aguilar is coming off a highly questionable split-decision win over Mateus Mendonca on the Mexico City card, in front of Aguilar’s home crowd. Mendonca took Aguilar down four times and controlled him for almost nine minutes, while Aguilar landed one takedown of his own and finished with almost five minutes of control time. The striking numbers were close, with Aguilar ahead 19-18 in significant strikes and Mendonca ahead 43-38 in total strikes. Prior to that, Aguilar landed the first knockout win of his career when he finished the glass-chinned Shannon Ross in just 17 seconds. Just keep in mind Ross has been knocked out in all three of his UFC fights and on DWCS. Just before that, Aguilar was submitted in the first round of UFC debut, where Aguilar tried to go for his patented guillotine early on in the fight against a really tough Tatsuro Taira, but was unable to complete it and then got armbarred late in the round. Looking back one fight further, Aguilar was able to complete a guillotine in the third round on DWCS, and had won eight straight fights coming into the UFC, with six of those wins ending in submissions and five by guillotine.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Aguilar has one knockout win, six by submission, and three decision victories. Five of his six submission wins were by guillotine and his last three submission wins all occurred in the later rounds. Both of his losses ended in first round submissions, one in his 2015 pro debut, and the other in his 2023 UFC debut.
Overall, Aguilar is a stocky grappler who tries to win every fight by guillotine. In addition to trying to defend takedowns with guillotine, he likes to take opponents down and then look for guillotines during the scrambling exchanges as they try to return to their feet. He has just a 62” reach, the shortest of any male fighter in the UFC. His wrestling doesn’t look that great, nor does his striking, and while being good at one thing may be enough on the regional scene to win fights, it’s hard to see Aguilar finding much prolonged success against legitimate competition at the UFC level. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS match, he landed 4 of his 12 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents landed 6 of their 10 attempts against him (40% defense). He only averages 1.49 SSL/min and 1.11 SSA/min and he failed to top 24 significant strikes landed in any of his last four fights.
Fight Prediction:
Nicoll will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two are grapplers and Nicoll has shown very little interest in keeping fights standing. Aguilar will look for guillotine attempts every chance he gets, but Nicoll is a BJJ black belt and should be expecting that, which lowers the chances that Aguilar is able to complete one. However, it’s tougher to fully evaluate how good of a grappler Nicoll actually is, because he’s been fighting such a low level of competition. Neither of these two are very good strikers, but Aguilar looks to throw with more power and also has the experience advantage. That just reconfirms that Nicoll will want to get the fight to the ground and Aguilar has spent a ton of time being controlled on the mat in the past. Nicoll said he’ll be looking for a ground and pound finish, but he also has a decent submission game, leaving him with multiple ways to find a finish. It also wouldn’t be that surprising if he just rode out a decision win on the ground. However, since Nicoll is still so unproven, we wouldn’t call him a safe play and Aguilar still has a shot at pulling off the upset. It will be interesting to see how Nicoll’s nerves hold up as he opens up a PPV card in front of his home crowd for his UFC debut. That’s a lot of pressure and an adrenaline dump is definitely in play, especially for a guy that is used to getting opponents out of there quickly. That leaves this as a more volatile matchup, but Aguilar’s 40% takedown defense and history of being controlled on his back is still enough for us to tentatively take Nicoll. A finish won’t be surprising, but we’ll say he starts strong, unsuccessfully pushes for an early finish on the mat, and then slows down in round three and hangs on to win a 29-28 decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Stewart Nicoll DEC” at +145.
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DFS Implications:
Nicoll is an aggressive grappler with a DFS-friendly style of fighting, especially on DraftKings, due to large amounts of control time and ground strikes. He’s finished seven of his eight pro opponents, which also keeps him in play on FanDuel, just keep in mind he’s been facing a really low level of competition. We’re curious to see how he looks at the UFC level and he’ll have a ton of pressure on him in his debut as he opens up a PPV card in front of his home crowd. His last four fights all ended in the first two rounds, but the last time he saw a third round he slowed down late in the fight, which is concerning for his ability to dominate for 15 full minutes on the ground. It’s very possible we see a strong start from him followed by an adrenaline dump, although all we can do is speculate there. If he can keep up his high grappling pace for three rounds, then he would be able to score well on DraftKings even without a finish. Encouraging for his upside is that Aguilar has just a 40% takedown defense and has struggled with being controlled on his back. Aguilar was also submitted in each of his two pro losses, leaving Nicoll with multiple ways to score well if the moment isn’t too big for him. We’re still treating this as a more volatile matchup with a lot of uncertainty on Nicoll’s side of things, but he definitely has tons of upside. The odds imply Nicoll has a 68% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Aguilar is a low-level grappler who was gifted a split-decision win in his last outing, despite being taken down four times and controlled for almost nine minutes, and also finishing behind in striking. There was definitely some home cooking going on in Mexico City, but Aguilar still only scored 60 DraftKings points in the win. Prior to that, he quickly knocked out a fragile Shannon Ross in just 17 seconds, obtaining the Quick Win Bonus in the process and scoring 126 DraftKings points. However, everyone knocks out Ross and that’s the only time that Aguilar has ever finished an opponent with strikes. Before that, Aguilar was submitted in the first round of his UFC debut and outside of the win over Ross he hasn’t shown any sort of scoring floor or ceiling. Just before joining the UFC, Aguilar completed a third round guillotine win on DWCS that would have been good for 89 DraftKings points and 87 points on FanDuel. So still not a huge score even with a late finish. He absolutely loves looking for guillotines, which often gets him into trouble and results in him ending up on his back. Now he’s facing an unproven, debuting BJJ black belt who is always looking to grapple. While that will likely present Aguilar with some opportunities to jump guillotine, those attempts are more likely to result in him being controlled on his back than actually completing one. However, it’s possible the moment will be too big for Nicoll, which could allow Aguilar to take over. So this is still a volatile matchup and we’ll want some exposure to Aguilar, even if he’s not very good. The odds imply Aguilar has a 32% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Song Kenan
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Kenan will be looking to bounce back from a unanimous 30-27 decision loss to Kevin Jousset, who outlanded Kenan 134-62 in significant strikes and 158-88 in total strikes. Jousset did a great job of picking Kenan apart with leg kicks and jabs, and also took Kenan down once on two attempts in the one-sided affair. Prior to that, Kenan secured his first victory since early 2020, when he won a close decision over Rolando Bedoya, despite finishing behind in significant strikes 112-75. Kenan landed a knockdown in the third round and showed improved cardio in the fight, as he lost the first round but won each of the later rounds to get his hand raised. Just before that, Kenan got knocked out in back-to-back fights, with a two year layoff between those losses. The most recent of those defeats came in the third round against Ian Garry, although Kenan did notably drop Garry in round one and nearly handed him his first career loss. Two years prior to that, Kenan got knocked out in the first round by Max Griffin. A year before that, Kenan landed a first round knockout of his own against Callan Potter, who came in 1-1 in the UFC and then never fought again after the loss to Kenan. In fact, all five of Kenan’s UFC wins came against struggling opponents. Kenan made his UFC debut in 2017 and landed a first round knockout against Bobby Nash, who had been knocked out in each of his previous two UFC fights as well and was cut following his third straight knockout loss. Kenan then landed a second round knockout against a debuting Hector Aldana, who finished 0-3 in the UFC with two KO losses. After losing a decision to Alex Morono in his next match, Kenan won a decision over Derrick Krantz, who came in 0-1 in the UFC and was cut following the loss. Callan Potter, who went 1-2 in the UFC, is the only opponent that Kenan has beaten who ever won a UFC fight, and Kenan’s last win was against Bedoya, who’s now 0-3 in the UFC. Before joining the UFC, Kenan notably fought Brad Riddell and Israel Adesanya earlier in his career, but both guys knocked him out.
Now 21-8 as a pro, Kenan has nine wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out four times himself, with his other four losses going the distance. The first early loss of his career actually came against Israel Adesanya in a R1 KO with the WFC organization. His second KO loss came in the second round of a 2017 fight against Brad Riddell, his third KO loss was in the first round against Max Griffin, and his fourth was in the third round against Ian Garry. So all of his early losses have come against really tough competition, although he’s just 2-4 in his last six decisions.
Overall, Kenan is primarily a striker, despite having eight submission wins on his record. He’s only attempted four takedowns in nine UFC appearances, landing two of them, with three of those attempts coming in his fight against Garry. On the other side of things, his opponents took him down seven times on 18 attempts (61.1% defense). While Kenan had shown questionable cardio in the past, he looks to have improved in that area in his recent fights. He still gets hit more than he lands, as he averages 4.36 SSL/min and 6.38 SSA/min, and was outlanded in six of his nine UFC fights. His last three opponents all landed 112 or more significant strikes against him. That generally leaves Kenan reliant on landing the bigger shots to win fights, and to his credit he has three knockdowns in his last five outings. He’ll get a step down in competition here and definitely needs a win after going 1-3 in his last four.
Ricky Glenn
11th UFC Fight (4-5-1)Coming off back-to-back first round knockout losses at 155 lb, the 35-year-old Glenn has now decided to move up to 170 lb for the first time in his career. His most recent loss came against Drew Dober, who outlanded Glenn 30-5 in striking before the fight was stopped midway through the first round as Dober pummeled Glenn’s head into the mat after knocking him down. Prior to that, Glenn suffered the first knockout defeat of his career just 95 seconds into the first round against Christos Giagos, who previously hadn’t knocked anybody out since 2016. That came after Glenn took all of 2022 off, after fighting to a draw against Grant Dawson in 2021. Glenn had then been scheduled to face Drew Dober in March 2022 but ended up completely tearing a tendon attached to his groin just before the fight and spent the next year recovering. That wasn’t the first time Glenn had been shelved for a period of time due to injury and following a 2018 decision loss we didn’t see him inside the Octagon for nearly three years after undergoing hip surgery. He finally returned in June 2021 and didn’t waste any time getting back on track as he landed a 37 second R1 knockout against Joaquim Silva that included two knockdowns. That’s Glenn’s only win since 2018 and he’s just 1-3-1 in his last five outings.
Now 22-8-2 as a pro, Glenn has 13 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. All three of his submission wins occurred very early in his career, in 2011 or prior, and he only has one knockout victory since 2016. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted two more times, and has four decision losses. While 20 of his 32 pro fights ended early, 7 of his 10 UFC fights went the distance, with the three exceptions all ending in first round knockouts (1-2), which all occurred in his last four fights after he moved up to 155 lb in 2021. Prior to that, he had spent almost his entire career at 145 lb, with the one exception being his 2016 UFC debut at 155 lb, where he lost a decision. Before making the move up to 155 lb, he had seen the second round in 19 straight matches. Now he’ll be moving up to 170 lb for the first time.
Overall, Glenn is sort of a tough guy to pin down. He’s decently well rounded and is a BJJ black belt, but he almost never lands any takedowns. In his 10 UFC fights, he only landed 4 of his 30 takedown attempts (13.3% accuracy), failing to land a takedown in any of his last seven fights and not even attempting any in four of his last six. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 14 of their 44 attempts (68.2% defense). He also averages just 3.94 SSL/min and only once topped 74 significant strikes landed in a fight. We’ve seen him on both sides of dominant performances, as he tends to run hot or cold and he’s now 35 years old and has been battling multiple serious injuries over the last several years. Glenn had been training at Team Alpha Male earlier in his UFC career, but following a 2018 loss he switched to Absolute MMA and Fitness and moved from California back to Iowa, where he’s originally from. It will be important to monitor him closely on the scale as he moves up to 170 lb for the first time.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” tall, but Kenan will have a 1” reach advantage.
It’s pretty crazy to think that Ricky Glenn was making 145 lb for almost his entire career, before he moved up to 155 lb in 2021. Since making that move, three of his four fights ended by knockout in 156 seconds or less. Now he’ll be making another move as he goes up to 170 lb for the first time in his career and it will be interesting to see how he looks at the new weight class. Maybe it will help his durability or maybe he’ll be outgunned against more powerful opponents. It’s hard to be overly confident in a fighter in his mid thirties with a history of injuries moving up a weight class for the second time in the last three years, and who’s also been knocked out in the first round in each of his last two fights. So it’s kind of crazy that Glenn has seen such a big line move in his favor this week and it seems like that must just be people looking to fade Kenan at all costs as a favorite. It’s been over three years since Glenn won a fight and over six years since he second most recent victory. He looks to be a loss or two away from selling used cars in Iowa and we don’t trust his chin at all at this stage of his career. Kenan has decent power and will have a good shot at landing a knockout, or at least doing enough damage to get his hand raised in a decision, and he’ll be the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Kenan/Glenn FGTD” at +158.
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DFS Implications:
Kenan is a striker who’s been reliant on first round knockouts to score well. In his two UFC decision wins, he only put up 73 and 60 DraftKings points, and even in a 2018 late second round finish, he only scored 93 points. Only twice in nine UFC fights has he scored well and one of those was a 15 second knockout win in his 2017 UFC debut where he garnered the Quick Win Bonus and scored 131 DraftKings points. The only time he topped 93 points in his last eight fights was in a 2020 first round knockout win that was good for 108 points. He’s only attempted four takedowns in nine UFC appearances, landing just two of those, and only averages 4.36 SSL/min. He’s never landed more than 75 significant strikes in a UFC fight, but gets hit a ton, averaging 6.38 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate). The line has moved sharply against him, which should keep his ownership down, despite the fact that Glenn is coming off back-to-back first round knockout losses and is now moving up to 170 lb for the first time at 35 years old. Glenn notably competed down at 145 lb until 2021 and this looks like a good opportunity for Kenan to land the first round knockout he needs to score well. The odds imply Kenan has a 63% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Glenn has been one of the more bipolar producers on the planet, with DraftKings scores of 140, 52, 139, and 61 in his four UFC wins. He also scored just three combined points in his last two losses, and his scoring range in his four fights since moving up to 155 lb has been 1 to 140. That 140 point total came in Glenn’s only UFC finish and you have to go all the way back to 2016, before he joined the UFC, to find his second most recent early win. Glenn also put up a massive score in a dominant decision win over Gavin Tucker in 2017, but otherwise hasn’t shown much in the way of scoring potential. He’s now 35 years old, has dealt with multiple injuries over the last half a decade that have kept him largely on the shelf, was knocked out in the first round in each of his last two fights, and is now moving up to 170 lb for the first time. It’s hard to know how much, if anything, he has left in the tank, or how he’ll look at the new weight class. There’s a very real chance he suffers yet another quick knockout loss, but if he doesn’t, it’s a pretty high upside matchup. Kenan averages 6.38 SSA/min and his last three opponents all landed 112 or more significant strikes against him. Kenan has also been knocked out four times before, with two of those coming in his last four fights. The line has moved heavily in Glenn’s favor, leaving him underpriced on DraftKings, and it will be interesting to see where his ownership ends up. The odds imply Glenn has a 37% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Tom Nolan
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Fresh off his first UFC win, Nolan landed a first round knockout against a low-level opponent in Victor Martinez, who was coming off a 15 month layoff after also getting knocked out in the first round of his UFC debut by a pillow-fisted grappler in Jordan Leavitt, who had never knocked anybody out on the feet before. So it was a teed up matchup for Nolan and he still almost fumbled the bag as he got dropped by Martinez before returning to his feet and finding the finish. Prior to that, Nolan suffered a nightmare start to his UFC career when he was knocked out just 63 seconds into his debut. He entered that fight as a massive -375 favorite against a struggling Nikolas Motta who was fighting for his job. Nolan came in recklessly hunting for a finish and was made to pay for it as Motta dropped him less than a minute into the fight and then rained down ground and pound to force a stoppage. Just before the loss in his UFC debut, Nolan landed a quick first round knockout on DWCS, after landing three more knockouts with the Eternal MMA promotion in Australia. While his last six bouts all ended in the opening two rounds, his first two pro fights both ended in decision wins.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Nolan has five wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Four of his early wins ended in round one, with the other being stopped in round two. He was also knocked out in the first round of his only loss. Nolan hasn’t fought much in the way of competition, so take his record with a grain of salt and he’s still largely unproven. Despite being 6’3”, Nolan actually competed down at 145 lb as an amateur, before moving up to 155 lb when he turned pro. He said that he could still make 145 lb if he had to but he thinks he’ll have more longevity at 155 lb and it’s a healthier weight class for him.
Overall, Nolan is an aggressive Australian fighter who stands 6’3” and is really tall for the 155 lb division. He’s a BJJ brown belt and has the ability to fight from distance, out of the clinch, or on the mat, and seems pretty well rounded. He throws good elbows and knees from up close and a variety of kicks and punches from distance, which make him a tough fighter to deal with. He’s the same height as Jalin Turner, although doesn’t have quite as long of a reach. However, while he has all of the physical tools to be successful, he still needs to prove he can hang at the UFC level. He’s so focussed on his offense that he doesn’t put much thought into his defense, and he seems to leave his chin high up in the air with his hands low. That has resulted in him being dropped in both of his UFC fights by a pair of low-level opponents. We also question his fight IQ after seeing his reckless approach in the loss in his debut, as well as the illegal knee he threw in his last fight with Eternal MMA on the regional scene. However, he’s still only 24 years old and only turned pro in 2020, so he should be learning and improving all the time at this stage in his career. He’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd here and gets yet another very favorable matchup as the UFC continues to try and build him up.
Alex Reyes
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Reyes is 11 months removed from a first round knockout loss to Charlie Campbell, who was making his short notice UFC debut after Reyes’ original opponent, Natan Levy, dropped out. You certainly wouldn’t have guessed from watching that it was Campbell who stepped in on short notice, as Reyes put up essentially zero resistance in the one-sided fight. Campbell easily dismantled Reyes, finishing ahead 43-14 in significant strikes, while easily stuffing both of Reyes’ takedown attempts. In fairness to Reyes he was coming off an insane six year layoff, after also getting knocked out in the first round of his 2017 UFC debut against Mike Perry. Reyes’ long layoff was caused by a spinal infection in 2018 that left him unable to walk. And then after years of working his way back to health, Reyes was finally booked to face Trevor Peak back in February 2023, but ended up dropping out after he tore a ligament in his hand. Prior to losing his last two fights, Reyes had finished 13 straight opponents and won both the Welterweight and Lightweight belts with the King of the Cage promotion. His last 15 fights all ended early, with 13 of those being stopped in round one.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Reyes has nine wins by KO/TKO and four submissions. He’s been knocked out three times and lost the only decision he’s ever been to, which was all the way back in 2007 in his second pro bout. All nine of his knockout wins and all three of his knockout losses ended in round one, while he also has two first round submissions and two more in round four. While he has more than twice as many knockouts as submissions, four of his last five finishes came by submission. Reyes has fought at both 155 lb and 170 lb, and while his UFC debut was at 170 lb, he then dropped back down to 155 lb after that.
Overall, Reyes is a kill or be killed type of fighter who hasn’t been past the first round since 2015. In fairness, he’s only fought once since 2017. He’s already 37 years old and essentially missed out on his entire UFC career due to medical issues, so you have to feel for the guy. In his return to the Octagon, he didn’t give us many reasons for optimism moving forward as failed to get anything going against a short notice debuting opponent. Maybe he’ll look better in his second fight back, but after taking almost another year off it’s not like he can come in riding any momentum. He owns his own gym so he’s been around the sport in his time away, but he still needs to show he can compete at the UFC level. He trains with Bobby Green, while also spending time training out in Las Vegas at Syndicate, and is the older brother of Dominick Reyes, so he has UFC fighters around him to learn from at least. While most of Reyes’ tape is 7+ years old, he’s looked well-rounded and seems—or at least seemed—to be a pretty decent grappler, who was also willing to throw down on the feet. He utilizes a lot of movement and mixes in a good amount of takedowns. On the mat, he’ll look for ground and pound and to lock up chokes, both of which he’s been pretty successful with. It’s hard to have much confidence in him as he quickly approaches his 38th birthday, but maybe he can surprise us.
Fight Prediction:
Nolan will have a 4” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach advantage. Nolan is 13 years younger than the 37-year-old Reyes.
Both of these two are offensively minded finishers who haven’t shown much in the way of defense. It’s rare to see either of them make it out of the first round and it should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts. It’s always jarring to see an unproven fighter with terrible defense show up as a -1200 favorite and Nolan has already blown it once in the UFC as a big -350 favorite and then got dropped in his last fight as a -500 favorite. So he’s given us absolutely no reason to trust him to this point, although Reyes is even less trustworthy. Nolan should be able to finish Reyes, but the only thing we’re confident in is this fight ending early. Nolan by first round knockout will be the pick, but we have zero interest in playing him at his price and we’ll be looking at the lottery ticket options with Reyes’ side of things when it comes to betting.
Our favorite bet here is “Alex Reyes R1 SUB” at +6000.
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DFS Implications:
Nolan is coming off a first round knockout win that was good for 105 DraftKings points, despite not being credited with any knockdowns or takedowns. However, he did get knocked down himself in that fight by a low-level opponent in Victor Martinez, who’s now 0-2 in the UFC with two first round knockout losses. And prior to that, Nolan suffered a first round TKO loss in his UFC debut against a struggling Nikolas Motta. So while Nolan has less than five minutes of total Octagon time so far in the UFC, he’s already been dropped twice by a pair of bad opponents. Nevertheless, every time he steps into the cage the oddsmakers install him as a bigger favorite than the time before and now he checks in with a -1200 ML and a -700 ITD line. That seems crazy for a fighter who has no regard for defense, but his upside is undeniable. Nolan pushes a crazy pace and is facing an opponent in Reyes who’s only fought once since 2017 and has been knocked out in the first round in both of his UFC fights. Nolan’s sky-high price tag does increase the chances of him getting priced out of the optimal, even with a first round finish, but based on historical data he’ll still have around a 50% chance of ending up in the winning DraftKings lineup. He’ll obviously be very popular though, so there’s definitely merit in looking for ways he fails to try and get unique with your tournament lineups. The odds imply Nolan has an 89% chance to win, an 82% chance to land a finish, and a 63% chance it comes in round one.
Reyes suffered a spinal infection in 2018 that was so bad it left him unable to walk and it’s amazing he was even able to work his way back to the UFC. However, his fairytale return quickly turned into a horror show as he was violently knocked out in the first round by Charlie Campbell, who was making his short notice UFC debut. That was 11 months ago and Reyes hasn’t won a fight since 2017, just before he joined the UFC. He was also knocked out in the first round of his UFC debut, which was against Mike Perry at 170 lb, before Reyes dropped back down to 155 lb afterwards. It’s unlikely that Reyes will ever fully regain his past form now that he’s quickly approaching his 38th birthday, but he did land 13 straight finishes before joining the UFC and Tom Nolan has terrible defense. That at least leaves a sliver of hope for Reyes, although rarely do we see +750 underdogs come out ahead. Nevertheless, he offers tournament winning upside if he can somehow pull off the upset and whoever wins this fight will score well. The odds imply Reyes has an 11% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Jack Jenkins
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Jenkins was originally scheduled to face Gavin Tucker here, but Tucker dropped out and Burns was announced as the replacement about three weeks out.
Jenkins is 11 months removed from a dislocated elbow that resulted in a R2 TKO loss to Chepe Mariscal. In fairness to Jenkines, he won the first round on all three scorecards before suffering the injury in the second round as he tried to post on his arm as Mariscal took him down in round two. Mariscal was winning the second round leading up to the injury, so the fight was essentially even before it was stopped. Prior to that, Jenkins won a close/controversial decision over Jamall Emmers, which was Jenkins’ ninth straight win at the time. The fight came down to the first round, where Emmers led just 21-20 in striking, with no takedowns or control time on either side. Jenkins was then able to land a takedown in round two and narrowly lead that round in striking, while Emmers took Jenkins down in round three and controlled him on the mat for four minutes. Prior to that, Jenkins made his UFC debut in front of his home Australian crowd and dominated Don Shainis in a decision win. That came after Jenkins landed a third round TKO on DWCS, where he relied largely on his wrestling as he landed four takedowns with over 11 minutes of control time before finding the late finish with 30 seconds remaining in the fight. Before going on DWCS, Jenkins won the Eternal MMA Featherweight belt back in 2020 and successfully defended it twice, in addition to winning the Rogue MMA Featherweight belt. His last title defense came in an ultra high-volume five-round decision, where Jenkins couldn’t miss with anything he threw, but never attempted to get the fight to the mat. Five of his last eight wins have come early, but his last eight fights all made it out of the first round and two of his three UFC fights went the distance.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Jenkins has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. He has three first round finishes, three in round two, one in round three, and another in round four. His last four and five of his last six finishes came in the later rounds, with his last three early wins all ending in TKOs. He’s coming off the first KO/TKO loss of his career due to the elbow injury, while his other two defeats both ended via submission in his first five pro fights.
Overall, Jenkins is a well-rounded Australian fighter with a rugby background who has spent a little time training with Alexander Volkanovski. He throws bone-shattering leg kicks and has broken numerous opponents’ legs with them. He also does a good job of mixing in his wrestling, and between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 9 of his 13 takedown attempts (69.2% accuracy), while only getting taken down by his opponents on 3 of their 12 attempts (75% defense). He showed the ability to put up big striking totals on the Australian regional scene, although has failed to top 82 significant strikes landed in any of his last four fights, where he averaged 4.43 SSL/min. This will be the third time in four UFC appearances that he’s fought in front of his home Australian crowd. Both his debut and his last fight were also in Australia.
Herbert Burns
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Coming off three straight second round TKO losses, Burns has been a picture of consistency, just not in a good way. His most recent loss came just five months ago against Julio Arce. Burns tried to get Arce down six times, but failed to land any of his attempts, although did land a pair of low blows that cost him a point in the first round. Right on cue, Burns slowed down in round two after he was unable to get his grappling going and then got knocked down twice before the fight was stopped. That came almost two years after Burns’ previous fight, where he was carried out of the Octagon by his big brother Gilbert, aftering quitting in the second round against Bill Algeo. Burns claimed to have reinjured his knee in that fight for what it’s worth, but it was also the second straight fight where he basically just gave up in round two when things weren’t going his way. That loss took place in July 2022, and you have to go all the way back to August 2020 to find his third most recent fight, which ended in another second round TKO, that time against Daniel Pineda. Prior to those three losses, Burns landed a pair of round one finishes in his first two UFC fights, knocking out Nate Landwehr with a knee in his 2020 UFC debut and then submitting a washed up Evan Dunham after that. Burns also submitted Darrick Minner in the first round on DWCS in 2019 to punch his ticket to the big show. Burns is just 1-5 in his last six fights to make it out of the first round, so he’s been reliant on landing quick finishes to win fights and is a total front runner who melts under adversity.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Burns has one win by KO, eight submissions, and two decisions. He has three R2 TKO losses and two decision defeats. Eight of Burns’ nine finishes came in round one, while he also has one in the first half of round two.
Overall, Burns is a decent grappler, but not much of a striker and he’s the definition of a quitter. While he’s a 3rd degree BJJ black belt, no one is confusing him for his brother and it’s unlikely he would even be in the UFC if he had a different last name. Between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Burns landed six of his 14 takedown attempts (42.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on two of their six attempts (66.7% defense). He only averages 1.73 SSL/min and has never landed more than 15 significant strikes in a fight. At 36 years old and coming off three straight early losses, it’s kind of surprising that Burns still even wants to compete. He missed weight by 3.5 lb against Pineda, so he’s always a guy to monitor during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Burns will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while Jenkins is five years younger than the 36-year-old Burns.
All of Burns’ fights are pretty straightforward. He comes out aggressively in the first round looking for takedowns, submissions, and knees, but when he can’t find a quick finish he wilts in round two. So you don’t even really need to beat Burns, you just need to outlast him and show him the door. While Jenkins has been submitted twice in the past, both of those were early in his career and he has decent wrestling and good striking. Burns is a good enough grappler that Jenkins will run the risk of being submitted if this hits the mat, but there’s a good chance that Jenkins can rely on his 75% takedown defense to keep it standing and pick Burns apart on the feet. Jenkins has a history of landing late round TKOs and Burns has a history of getting finished by late round TKO, so it sets up perfectly for Jenkins to find a later finish, most likely in round two. We expect Jenkins to be wary of Burns’ grappling in round one, which just increases the chances of a later finish and we’ll say Jenkins gets it done in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Jack Jenkins R2/3 KO” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Jenkins is 11 months removed from dislocating his elbow in a second round TKO loss to Chepe Mariscal, but by all indications he’s been back to full health for a while. Prior to that, he won a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights, returning DraftKings scores of 64 and 97 points respectively. So he’s shown decent scoring ability even without a finish, but not enough to return value as the second most expensive fighter on the card. However, he gets a great matchup to find his first UFC finish here, as he takes on Herbert Burns, who’s coming off three straight second round TKO losses. Jenkins lands violent leg kicks and Burns is a quitter who lacks the ability to fight through adversity. So as long as Jenkins can avoid getting submitted in round one, he should be in a great position to show Burns the door in round two and it would be very surprising to see this fight make it to the scorecards. With that said, at Jenkins’ expensive price tag, he could finish Burns and still easily get priced out of winning lineups depending on what the other high-priced fighters do. The odds imply Jenkins has an 85% chance to win, a 69% chance to land a finish, and a 31% chance it comes in round one.
Burns is a fragile, weak-minded quitter who relies on landing early submissions to win fights. He’s now 36 years old and has only competed twice since 2020, although will now be fighting for the second time in 2024. He had to be carried out of the Octagon by his brother Gilbert following his second most recent loss, which would have been a fitting end to his career. He’s battled knee injuries in the past, and claimed to have suffered another injury in that fight, but then returned nearly two years later to suffer his third straight R2 TKO loss. While it’s been over four years since he beat anybody, he did start his UFC career off with a pair of first round finishes that were good for 99 and 111 DraftKings points respectively. So he has shown scoring upside when he wins, but he basically needs to get opponents out of there in the first round before he wilts. Jenkins has been submitted twice in the past, but both of those were very early in his career and he’s shown decent wrestling lately. That will make it tougher for Burns to get the fight to the ground and he looks like nothing more than a hail mary first round submission or bust play. The odds imply Burns has a 15% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Luana Santos
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Santos is just five weeks removed from a first round submission win over a one-dimensional striker in Mariya Agapova, who’s now been submitted in three straight fights and was coming off nearly a two year layoff. Santos quickly got the fight to the mat and then quickly began attacking submissions on the mat, before eventually locking up a rear-naked choke. Prior to that, Santos won a decision over a Judo black belt in Stephanie Egger. Santos took that fight on shorter notice and moved up from 125 lb to 135 lb, while Egger has competed all the way up at 145 lb in the past. Santos notably missed weight by three pounds for the fight and didn’t look like the smaller fighter in there as she was able to hold Egger up against the cage, control her, and take her down in each of the later rounds. It was definitely a poor showing from Egger, but it also showed Santos’ strength as she moved up a weight class. Four months before that, Santos secured the first TKO win of her career in less than four minutes against a fellow grappler in Juliana Miller who approached the fight like it was 2 AM at a Wendy’s. The two wildly swung at each other until the ref eventually stopped the fight on the feet. Before joining the UFC, Santos notched a pair of wins in the LFA with a decision victory followed by a first round guillotine, after losing a split decision in her 2022 LFA debut. Before she joined the LFA, Santos’ first three pro fights were on the Brazilian regional scene and she only turned pro in July 2021.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Santos has one TKO win, four submissions, and three decision victories. Three of those submissions occurred in round one, while the other came in round three. Her only loss was a 2022 split decision. Santos’ first three pro fights were at 135 lb, before she dropped down to 125 lb for her next four. She returned to 135 lb for a 2023 short notice matchup, before returning to 125 lb.
Overall, Santos is a Judo black belt who started training Judo when she was eight years old and it shows in her fighting style as she’s primarily a grappler and loves looking for Judo throws. She’s just a BJJ blue belt, but she’ll look for Americana submissions out of the scarf hold position, similar to Montserrat Conejo, and is also a fan of guillotines. Santos hasn’t looked very dangerous off her back and her striking is still a work in progress, but she does appear to be making some improvements on that front. She’s still very early in career at just 24 years old and she left her home country of Brazil in May 2023 to move to Sacramento, California to train at Team Alpha Male. We expect to see her game evolve every time she steps inside the Octagon, but she’s still pretty green at this stage in her career and still has a lot of holes in her game.
Casey O'Neill
7th UFC Fight (4-2)O'Neill was originally scheduled to fight Tereza Bleda here, but Bleda dropped out and Santos was announced as the replacement three weeks out.
Loser of two straight, O'Neill will be looking to bounce back from a second round submission loss to a tough Ariane Lipski, who entered as a +160 underdog against O’Neill, but proceeded to win the first round on all three scorecards. Lipski then hurt O’Neill badly on the feet early in round two, before finishing her with an armbar. Lipski finished ahead 64-31 in significant strikes, while also landing her only takedown attempt and defending both of O'Neill’s attempts. Prior to that, O'Neill suffered the first loss of her career in a decision against a former title challenger in Jennifer Maia. O'Neill was just 10 months removed from knee surgery in that fight, which may have played a factor in her lack of wrestling. O'Neill curiously only attempted one failed takedown in the match and got outlanded 145-137 in significant strikes on the feet. That was obviously a big step up in competition for O'Neill, after she won an even high volume decision over a half-retired Roxanne Modafferi in her previous fight, where O'Neill finished ahead in significant strikes 229-120, but failed to land either of her takedown attempts. Leading up to that decision win, O'Neill finished her first three UFC opponents on the mat, beginning with a second round TKO against a terrible Shana Dobson in her February 2021 UFC debut. She then choked out a BJJ black belt in Lara Procopio in the third round of her next fight, before landing a second round ground and pound TKO against Antonina Shevchenko. Dobson and Procopio were both cut from the UFC following those losses to O'Neill.
Now 9-2 as a pro, O'Neill has three wins by KO/TKO (all in R2), two submissions (R1 & R3), and four decision victories. She’s never been knocked out, but has one second round submission loss and one decision defeat. Her last nine fights all made it past the first round, but only two of her last seven fights required the judges. O'Neill started her pro career at 115 lb, but moved up to 125 lb in 2020 for her fourth pro fight, where she’s stayed since. While two of her three 115 lb fights went the distance, five of her eight 125 lb matches ended early.
Overall, O'Neill is an aggressive junkyard dog who puts a pace on her opponents that can melt lesser opposition in the later rounds, as she averages 8.41 SSL/min and 1.8 TDL/15 min. However, she’s been very hittable, and also averages 6.30 SSA/min. She definitely still needs to improve her technique and striking defense, but she’s also still only 26 years old and should be improving all the time. She’s dangerous on the mat both with her ground and pound and submissions, but failed to take down any of her last three opponents. In her six UFC fights, she landed 8 of her 21 takedown attempts (38.1% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 5 of their 15 attempts (66.7% defense). She failed to land any of her five takedown attempts in her last three fights, after landing 8 of her 16 attempts in her first three UFC matches. O'Neill’s father is a former fighter and the owner of Eternal MMA, which is the Australian promotion O'Neill fought her first four fights under and where she became the Strawweight Champion, so she’s been around fighting her whole life and will now be returning to the country where she started her career. While she mostly grew up in Australia, she was born in Scotland, but she’ll still have the home crowd behind her.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’6”, but O'Neill will have a 2” reach advantage and is two years older than the 24-year-old Santos.
This is an interesting matchup between two fighters who do their best work from top position on the mat. Santos has more grappling experience and is a Judo black belt, while O'Neill is a BJJ brown belt. Santos remains largely untested, and the only decent opponent she’s faced in the UFC was Stephanie Egger and that ended in a close decision. Not that O'Neill has beaten anyone good, but she’s at least gone up against a former title challenger in Jennifer Maia and a surging prospect in Ariane Lipski. Both of these two look pretty hittable on the feet and neither of them are exceptional strikers, but we still give the striking advantage to O'Neill and she also pushes a higher pace. However, Santos may be the stronger of the two and started her career at 135 lb, while O'Neill started out at 115 lb. O'Neill had a full camp to prepare for a fight after her booking with Bleda was announced back in May, while Santos only had three weeks to prepare after she was announced as the replacement. Santos also just fought five weeks ago, so she will be making a second weight cut in a short time period. It will be interesting to see how much grappling we get in this matchup and we won’t be surprised if O'Neill is content with keeping it standing and outlanding her way to a decision win. Santos will probably be the one initiating the grappling exchanges more and she loves looking for judo throws, which she’ll have a tougher time landing as she begins facing better competition. Santos is probably being overvalued right now after her recent submission win, which masked a lot of holes in her stand up game, while it’s a good buy-low spot on O'Neill as she comes off two losses. When you also add in that O'Neill will have the home crowd behind her, she’s more likely to get the nod in a close decision or to get some help from the ref breaking up stagnant positions on the mat or fence. So give us O'Neill in a close decision here, where she outlands her way to victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Casey O'Neill ML” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Santos has been overachieving to this point in her brief UFC career and has been able to mask the holes in her striking game through a series of favorable matchups. Her first UFC victory was pretty flukey and ended in the first KO/TKO win of her career in her UFC debut against Juliana Miller, who for some reason was dead set on making it look like a late night Wendy’s brawl. That’s not normally how Santos’ fights go at all and the pace was entirely dictated by Miller. So take the 116 DraftKings points that Santos scored in the win with a grain of salt. Santos’ win over Egger is more of what you can generally expect from her as she relied on cage control and grappling to win a slow-paced decision. She then recently landed a first round submission win that was good for 101 DraftKings points, but keep in mind, it came against Mariya Agapova, who’s now been submitted in three straight fights and was coming off nearly a two year layoff. So while Santos averaged 100 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins/fights, her two finishes came against terrible opponents, while she fought to a lower scoring decision in her one tougher matchup against a one-dimensional grappler and only scored 84 DraftKings points. She’s yet to face anyone well rounded and we expect her to struggle on the feet once she does. She’s making a really quick turnaround here and fought just five weeks ago, so she didn’t have any time to make actual improvements since we last saw her and will also be cutting weight for the second time in just over a month. She’s also traveling into enemy territory on the other side of the world. We loved her in her last matchup, which was a dream setup for her to find a submission, but this will be a tougher test and could be a good sell-high spot. With that said, O'Neill averages 6.30 SSA/min and makes for pace-up matchups that are great for DFS. In O'Neill’s two losses, her opponents averaged 99 DraftKings points and Santos still has decent scoring potential if she can win. The odds imply Santos has a 57% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
O'Neill averaged a blistering 126 DraftKings points in her four UFC victories, with scores of 122, 131, 110, and 140. The last three of those scores came in late-round finishes, but she was still able to score 122 points through sheer striking volume in her lone decision win. However, that also came against a half-retired Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill then blew out her knee in training and rushed back 10 months later only to suffer her first career loss in a decision against Jennifer Maia, which ended in another high-volume decision. However, even if O'Neill had won there, she still only would have scored 85 DraftKings points. She then suffered the first early loss of her career in her last fight and has now dropped two straight. And while O'Neill came into the UFC consistently looking for takedowns and ground and pound, as she’s worked on her striking, she’s begun looking for far fewer takedowns, failing to land any in her last three matches, on just five attempts. When you combine that with the fact that she’s taking on a Judo black belt here, we should temper our expectations on how much grappling success O'Neill will find. However, O'Neill has shown the ability to put up huge striking totals and Santos is still very green on the feet, leaving O'Neill with the potential to score well from striking volume alone if she can avoid getting controlled in this matchup. O'Neill pushes a super high space and Santos only stepped into this fight on three weeks’ notice and just five weeks after her last fight, so it will be interesting to see how Santos’ cardio holds up. We could see O'Neill take her into deep waters and drown her with pressure, which could even open up a late finish for O'Neill, something she’s excelled at. So overall, this looks like a good buy-low spot on O'Neill as she fights in front of her home crowd. The odds imply O'Neill has a 43% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Josh Culibao
8th UFC Fight (3-3-1)Culibao is coming off a close split-decision loss to a debuting Danny Silva, who was able to take Culibao down four times on nine attempts and control him for five and half minutes, while also finishing with a submission attempt. However, Culibao finished ahead 87-45 in significant strikes and 89-56 in total strikes. Prior to that, Culibao lost a lopsided 30-26 decision to Lerone Murphy, who took Culibao down three times and controlled him for half the fight, while also knocking him down once on a grazing kick that didn’t even really appear to land. That snapped a three-fight winning streak for Culibao, who was coming off his first early win with the UFC in a second round submission against a one-dimensional striker in Melsik Baghdasaryan. That came after he won a pair of decisions, following a draw against Charles Jourdain. Culibao’s one other UFC fight was a second round TKO loss in his February 2020 short notice UFC debut against Jalin Turner, which Culibao took up a weight class. Five of Culibao’s last six fights ended with the judges (2-2-1).
Now 11-3-1 as a pro, Culibao has five wins by TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. Three of his five TKO wins occurred in the first round, although two of those came in his first three pro fights. His other two TKOs came in the championship rounds of 2016 and 2018 fights. The only time he’s been finished was in a second round TKO in his UFC debut, which took place up a weight class on short notice. His other two losses both went the distance. Interestingly, six of his eight decisions have been split on the scorecards (4-1-1).
Overall, Culibao is more or less of a one-dimensional striker, but did land his first career submission in his last win. Nevertheless, he’s gone 0 for 17 on his takedown attempts in the UFC, while his opponents got him down on 10 of their 31 attempts (67.7% defense). Culibao is still only 30 years old and has shown improvements to his striking over the course of his UFC career, but still isn’t landing a ton of striking volume, as he only averages 3.20 SSL and 3.24 SSA/min. Only once did he land more than 53 significant strikes in a fight, which was when he landed 87 against Danny Silva in his last fight. On the other side of things, he’s never absorbed more than 59 significant strikes in a UFC fight. Culibao will get to fight in front of his home crowd here.
Ricardo Ramos
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Ramos is coming off his second straight first round submission loss, with both of those ending in guillotines. The most recent of those came against Julian Erosa, who Ramos took down twice in less than half a round. However, he got stuck in a guillotine on the second of those takedowns and then just panic tapped when he couldn’t immediately escape. His previous matchup went similarly, as Ramos was once again determined to wrestle against Charles Jourdain. To Ramos’ credit, that was a smart gameplan, but Jourdain was determined to lock up a guillotine. While that situation generally favors the guy on top, Jourdain was able to eventually lock it in and Ramos was unable to escape that final attempt. Prior to that, Ramos had a fight against Austin Lingo scrapped at weigh-ins after Ramos missed weight by an absurd eight pounds. He claimed he was dealing with an injury going into that fight and the medicine he was on made his weight go up. That was Ramos’ second straight fight to be canceled at the time and you have to go back to June 2022 to find his third most recent Octagon appearance, and last victory. That fight ended quickly when Ramos connected on one of his patented spinning elbows, becoming the first fighter to ever knock out Danny Chavez. Just before that, Ramos lost a close decision to a tough Zubaira Tukhugov, after winning a wrestling-heavy decision over Bill Algeo. Ramos’ two other UFC 145 lb fights were a R1 TKO loss to Lerone Murphy and a R1 submission win over a terrible Luiz Eduardo Garagorri in Ramos first fight at the new weight class. Before moving up to 145 lb in 2019, Ramos went 4-1 at 135 lb in his first five UFC fights. Ramos’s last 10 fights all either ended in the first round (2-4) or went the distance (3-1). The last time we saw a later finish in one of his matches was in 2017 when he knocked out Aiemann Zahabi in the third round with a spinning back elbow.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Ramos has four wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has one decision loss. His fights generally either end in round one or go the distance, with 8 of his 11 career finishes and all five of his early losses ending in the first round. He fought his first five UFC fights at 135 lb (4-1), before moving up to 145 lb in 2019, where he’s since gone 3-4.
Overall, Ramos is a flashy striker and a dangerous grappler, but tends to slow down later on in fights and seems to panic when he gets caught in chokes. He’s a counter striker who loves to throw spinning elbows against aggressive opponents and he’s also a BJJ black belt who will sporadically shoot for takedowns in bunches given the right matchup. In his 12 UFC fights, he landed 21 of his 35 takedown attempts (60% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 22 attempts (72.7% defense). He’s never landed more than 68 significant strikes in a fight and averages just 3.21 SSL/min, but his combination of striking and grappling have allowed him to win five of the six decisions he’s been to. After missing weight by 8 lb for his third most recent scheduled fight, obviously Ramos is always a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Culibao will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This is a really important fight for both of these two, as they’re each coming off two straight losses. While Ramos was quickly submitted in each of his two recent defeats, Culibao’s last two fights both went the distance, which is how most of his UFC fights have ended. Ramos has a significant grappling advantage here, while they’re both good strikers. However, Culibao has shown a lot more heart and has better cardio, while he’ll also have the home crowd behind him. Ramos has looked like his own worst enemy lately as he put himself in position to get submitted in each of his recent two defeats and then didn’t even really try to escape the submission attempts. However, both of those two opponents were known for having good chokes, while Culibao only has one submission win in his career. We expect the striking to be fairly close here, but Ramos should be able to set himself apart with his grappling and as long as he doesn’t self-destruct again he should be able to pull off the upset, likely in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Ricardo Ramos ML” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Culibao has yet to put up a usable DFS score in seven Octagon appearances, and despite landing a second round submission in his last win, he only scored 77 DraftKings points. He followed that up with a pair of decision losses, where he only scored 35 and 15 points respectively, so nowhere close to useful even if either of those had gone his way. He also scored just 76 and 58 points in his two decision victories, despite landing a pair of knockdowns in the most recent of those. So he’s given us no indication that he can score well either in decisions or later round finishes as he doesn't land much striking volume (3.20 SSL/min), nor has he ever taken anyone down. He hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2019 and only has one career submission win, which are both concerning for his upside. Working in his favor, Ramos has been finished in five of his six career losses, with all five of those early losses occurring in the first round. That at least gives Culibao a shot at securing the first round finish he needs to score well and he’ll have the home crowd cheering him on. The odds imply Culibao has a 56% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Ramos averaged just 70 DraftKings points in his first four UFC wins, failing to even top 68 points in three of those. However, all four of those matches notably took place at 135 lb and since moving up to 145 lb in 2019 he’s averaged 102 DraftKings points in his last three victories. Two of those wins ended in first round finishes, which returned scores of 102 and 106 points respectively, and the other came in a wrestling-heavy decision, where Ramos landed eight takedowns and scored 98 DraftKings points. However, he’s struggled to string wins together since moving up in weight, and is now coming off back-to-back first round submission losses. It seems like he’s kind of a headcase and panics when he gets caught in chokes, which obviously isn’t ideal. However, both of those losses came against opponents known for having dangerous chokes, while Culibao only has one career submission win. So while it’s not impossible that Culibao could lock up a guillotine, the chances are lower than in either of those last two fights. Ramos will have a big grappling advantage in this matchup and has the potential to dominate the fight on the ground, which would still allow him to score well even in a decision. However, Culibao has been durable, tough to put away, and hard to score well against, and in his last two defeats his opponents only averaged 72 DraftKings points. Ramos will also be traveling into enemy territory and who knows where his head is at after those last two losses. So it’s not an ideal spot for him to put up a big score, but we still like his wrestling upside at his cheap price tag. The odds imply Ramos has a 44% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Junior Tafa
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Junior Tafa recently made the bold decision to step in on a day’s notice to face Marcos Rogerio de Lima, after Junior’s brother Justin dropped out during weigh-ins. The decision didn’t exactly pay dividends, as Tafa had his lead leg destroyed, was easily taken down and controlled in round one, and then dropped by leg kicks in round two and quickly finished with ground and pound. De Lima finished ahead 33-11 in significant strikes and 63-17 in total strikes in the one-sided affair. Prior to that, Tafa notched his first UFC win in a quick 84 second knockout against a suspect Parker Porter who’s been finished eight times in his career. Just before that, Tafa lost a wrestling-heavy decision in his UFC debut against a terrible Mohammed Usman. Tafa showed just how helpless he is on his back and against the fence in that fight, something every opponent should be looking to expose moving forward. Usman finished with 12 minutes of control time and landed 2 of his 12 takedown attempts. Tafa looked like he had never trained wrestling a day in his life in the fight, while he finished ahead just 22-7 in significant strikes in a complete snoozer. That was the first time Tafa has been to a third round, after he finished all four of his previous opponents in under 10 minutes.
Still just 5-2 as a pro, all five of Tafa’s wins ended in KO/TKOs, with four ending in round one and one in round two. He made his pro MMA debut at Light Heavyweight in July 2022, before moving up to Heavyweight, where he’s stayed since. He talked about dropping back down to Light Heavyweight after his debut, but that never happened, and he would have had a lot of weight to cut, as he tipped the scale at 255 lb and then 249 lm in his last two matches.
Overall, Tafa is a one-dimensional kickboxer with decent power but poor cardio and no grappling. While he has a lot of kickboxing and Muay Thai experience, he’s still very new to MMA after just turning pro in July 2022. However, he has been one of Mark Hunt’s sparring partners for a while and his brother Justin joined the UFC back in 2019, so he’s been around the game for some time. He looks to land early knockouts in all of his fights and doesn’t appear to have a plan B. In his three UFC fights, his opponents got him down three times on 16 attempts (81.3% defense). However, that number looks better on paper than on tape and it’s inflated by Usman (17% career takedown accuracy) only landing two of his 12 attempts. Tafa has shown no ability to return to his feet after being taken down and now he’s going up against another wrestler. Tafa is from New Zealand, so he’s fighting close to home and we expect the crowd to be behind him, which could help when it comes to the ref standing things up faster or in a close decision.
Valter Walker
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Walker will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his recent UFC debut against a terrible Lukasz Brzeski, who lost his other four UFC fights. Walker was able to take Brzeski down four times on five attempts and finished with over seven minutes of control time, but wasn’t doing enough on the mat to pull away and all three judges scored the first two rounds for Brzeski. Both guys tired out in the fight, which resulted in a slower pace and Brzeski finished ahead just 58-33 in significant strikes. Prior to making his debut, Walker landed a R4 TKO win over former UFC fighter Alex Nicholson. Both guys nearly died of exhaustion in that match before the fight was abruptly stopped early in the fourth round for no apparent reason. Walker took Nicholson down and suddenly the ref stepped in and stopped the fight, leaving the broadcast team and everyone watching confused. For context, Nicholson went just 1-3 in the UFC and was recently knocked out in the first round on the regional scene by multi-time UFC reject Chase Sherman. Before Walker’s win over Nicholson with Titan FC, which took place in Serbia, Walker had been beating up on undersized, low-level opponents in Moscow with the unheralded MMA Series promotion. Just to fully paint the picture, his last MMA Series win came against an insanely undersized 40 year old opponent who more recently competed all the way down at 170 lb. While Walker’s last four wins all ended in KO/TKOs, his four before that all went the distance.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Walker has six KO/TKO wins, one submission, and four decision victories. His lone submission win came in the first round of his second pro fight back in 2020, while five of his six knockouts ended in under eight minutes. He’s never been finished, with his only loss being the decision in his recent UFC debut. Just take his record with a huge grain of salt based on the very low level of competition he’s been facing.
Overall, Walker is a sea monster of a man, standing 6’6” and pushing the Heavyweight limit on the scale. All of his weight appears to be in his upper body and it’s amazing his legs can even support him. He looks like a sack of potatoes propped up by a pair of chopsticks. His brother is Johnny Walker, which is likely the only reason he’s even getting a shot in the UFC, but the two brothers couldn’t be much more different. While Johnny is a jacked Light Heavyweight striker who trains in Ireland, Valter is a sloppy Heavyweight wrestler who trains in Russia. Valter has terrible cardio, which is far from ideal for a fighter who relies so heavily on his wrestling. In addition to his limited gas tank, Walker has also shown a dubious fight IQ, and hasn’t shown very good striking. However, his game plan is generally to take opponents down and crush them with his weight, while landing occasional ground and pound. He relies on his sheer size to overwhelm the opposition and doesn’t have a whole lot else going for him. The UFC gave Walker one of the easiest matchups he could ask for in his debut and he still managed to lose, so now they’re giving him the fighter with the worst defensive wrestling in the division (world?) to try and get him a win.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
This is your classic wrestler versus striker matchup between two fighters who are only in the UFC because of who their brothers are. They’re both very one-dimensional and neither of them have good cardio. That creates the potential for things to get very sloppy down the stretch if the fight gets extended. Tafa will be very live to get a knockout anytime the fight is standing, but Walker should be consistently looking to take him down and smother him. It will be interesting to see how long the ref lets Walker hold him on the mat before standing things back up, and you can expect loud boos from the pro-Tafa crowd anytime the fight is on the mat. The judges didn’t reward Walker on the scorecards for his control time in the first two rounds of his last fight, and it’s entirely possible we see something similar here, creating the potential for Tafa to win a close/questionable decision even if he does get controlled for extended periods of time. However, maybe Walker will have learned his lesson from that loss and will look for more damage on the mat and Tafa is terrible at returning to his feet after getting taken down. We expect the fight to play out as a rinse and repeat cycle of Tafa landing some early strikes, but then getting taken down and controlled until the round ends or the ref stands them up. Sure it’s possible that Tafa can land a knockout even with very limited opportunities, or that Walker can finish him with ground and pound, but we think it’s more likely to go the distance and force the judges to weigh limited striking versus lots of wrestling. That’s always a crapshoot and even if you told us Walker finished the fight with 10+ minutes of control time, you still wouldn’t actually know who the judges would give the decision to. So both guys are live if this hits the scorecards, while we see more finishing equity for Tafa. We understand Tafa being a slight favorite, but it’s impossible for us to pick him against anyone who has any clue how to wrestle, so we lean towards Walker by decision. But ultimately, this fight is so low-level that the UFC should be ashamed to put it on a PPV card, let alone as the featured prelim, and it carries a lot of inherent volatility.
Our favorite bet here is “Junior Tafa R3 or DEC” at +390.
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DFS Implications:
Tafa is a one-dimensional striker who offers absolutely nothing when it comes to grappling and has shown questionable cardio in the past. He relies on landing knockouts to win fights and only turned pro in MMA in July 2022, but does have a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. His lack of experience has been evident in both of his UFC losses, where he struggled with being taken down and had no clue how to return to his feet. Now he’ll face another wrestler, which is obviously concerning. However, Tafa did land a first round knockout win in between those two losses, scoring 104 DraftKings points in the process. So he has shown finishing upside when he can keep fights standing. It’s not like Walker is anything special either, but he will be looking to take Tafa down and control him. That will leave Tafa with limited opportunities to find a finish, making it a more volatile matchup with a wide range of scoring outcomes. Both guys have bad cardio and things could get sloppy down the stretch, although if one can outlast the other then a late finish may present itself. However, if Tafa gets controlled for the first two rounds, it would be tougher for him to score well in a late knockout or a decision. Maybe his reasonable salary would still allow him to be useful even without a big score, but we’re mostly playing him for his early knockout potential. The odds imply Tafa has a 55% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Walker tried to out wrestle his way to a decision win in his recent UFC debut, but ultimately the judges weren’t impressed by his ground game and awarded the 29-28 decision to Lukasz Brzeski, who’s currently 1-4 in the UFC. Had the decision gone Walker’s way, he still only would have scored 86 DraftKings points, despite landing four takedowns and over seven minutes of control time. Walker once again showcased his suspect gas tank in that fight, but was still at least able to land takedowns in the third round even when he was tired. That’s at least encouraging for his ability to survive to see the judges here and Tafa is absolutely helpless on his back. All Walker has to do to win here is get Tafa down and stay busy enough to avoid a standup. It will be easier to hold Tafa down than it was Brzeski and Walker shouldn’t have to work as hard to maintain positions. However, he’ll also be at a greater risk of getting knocked out whenever the fight is standing, leaving him with a lower floor than his last matchup. We trust Walker about as far as we can throw him, but make no mistake, Tafa has the worst ground game of anyone on the roster. So it’s a very winnable fight for Walker and he couldn’t ask for a more favorable stylistic matchup. If he can’t win here, they may as well just cut him now and save him the embarrassment of going 0-4. He’s a much better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, as we expect to see large amounts of control time from him. The odds imply Walker has a 45% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Carlos Prates
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Fresh off his eighth straight knockout win, Prates is just over two months removed from a violent walk off knee to the liver of Charlie Radtke. Prates fought with unabashed confidence as he patiently waited for his opportunity and then struck like a cobra with laser-like precision and dropped Radtke like a bag of rocks in the closing seconds of the first round. That came just four months after Prates made his UFC debut, where he landed a second round knockout win against a fragile Trevin Giles. However, Giles actually finished ahead 68-37 in significant strikes and won the first round on all three scorecards, before Prates caught him with a perfect left hand late in round two that ended the fight in walk off fashion. Six months before that, Prates landed another second round finish, that time in a TKO over Mitch Ramirez on DWCS. The last time Prates saw the third round was in a 2019 decision win and he’s only required the judges in 3 of his 25 pro fights.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Prates has 14 KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and two decision victories. All three of his submission wins occurred early in his career from 2014 to 2016 and his last 11 finishes all ended by knockout. He has seven first round knockouts, six more in round two, and one in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice himself and submitted three times, in addition to one decision loss. One of those knockout losses came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2012 when he was just 18 years old and only two months after he turned pro. The other was in the first round of a 2017 match. All three of his submission losses also occurred early in his career, all in the first round of his first nine pro fights from 2013 to 2014. No one has finished him since 2017 and he’s won 12 of his last 13 fights, with the one loss going the distance. Prates has competed anywhere from 145 lb to 185 lb in the past, but the majority of his career has been spent at 170 lb.
Overall, Prates is a patient but dangerous Muay Thai striker with baseball bats for legs and he looks like an absolute problem on the feet. He’s also a BJJ black belt but he’s typically looking to keep fights standing. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS match, he never attempted a takedown, while his opponents got him down once on five attempts (80% defense). He does a good job of attacking his opponents with heavy body kicks before switching it up and going upstairs once they start lowering their guard. He’s tall and really long and uses his height and reach well, making it tough to close the distance on him. He throws knees like they’re prison shanks and he’s incredibly accurate and makes his strikes count, even though he doesn’t throw a crazy amount of volume (4.09 SSL/min). One area of concern is his striking defense (39%) and he averages 5.23 SSA/min and tends to keep his hands low. While Prates turned pro all the way back in 2012 and has 25 pro fights under his belt, in addition to tons of Muay Thai and K-1 experience, he’s still only 30 years old and just now entering his prime. He’ll actually turn 31 on Saturday and is fighting on his birthday as he travels into enemy territory.
Li Jingliang
18th UFC Fight (11-6)It’s been almost two years since we last saw Li, as he’s been recovering from a spine injury suffered in preparation for an April 2023 fight against Michael Chiesa that he was forced to drop out of. The last time Li competed was in September 2022, when he took part in a game of matchup musical chairs the day before the fight. He had been scheduled to face Tony Ferguson at 170 lb and made weight successfully, but then Khamzat Chimaev missed weight 7.5 lb and the UFC completely shuffled the main three fights to avoid canceling any of them. Nate Diaz fought Ferguson instead of Chimaev, Holland fought Chimaev instead of Daniel Rodriguez, and Li fought Rodriguez, despite the fact that Rodriguez weighed in 10 lb heavier. Li took an early striking lead, finishing ahead 27-20 in the round. However, two of the three judges curiously still scored the round for Rodriguez. Round two was closer, with Rodriguez leading in striking, but Li landing the more impactful shots and tacking on a takedown at the end. Again, two of the three judges scored it for Rodriguez, while one gave it to Li. Round three was also close, but Rodriguez again finished a little ahead in striking. That was arguably Li’s worst round and ironically the only round that two of the three judges scored in his favor. There wasn’t a single round in the fight that all three judges agreed on, with all three scoring the fight differently on a round by round basis. One judge gave Rodriguez the first two rounds, another gave him the last two rounds, and the third had Li winning the last two. The fight ended with Rodriguez ahead 88-78 in significant strikes and 89-78 in total strikes, while Li landed the only takedown attempted in the fight. Li has traded wins and losses for six straight fights, and just before losing to Rodriguez, he landed a late second round knockout against an aging Muslim Salikhov, who had previously never been knocked out in his career. That followed a first round submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev, after Li knocked out another aging veteran in Santiago Ponzinibbio. Li’s last four wins all ended by knockout, while the only fighter to finish him since 2015 is Chimaev.
Now 19-8 as a pro, Li has 10 wins by KO/TKO, four by submission, and five decisions. Three of his submission wins came in his first six pro fights and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted twice and has six decision defeats. He’s never lost two fights in a row and followed up five of his seven losses with knockout wins. He’s landed eight knockouts in the UFC to go along with three decision wins.
Overall, Li is a solid striker and despite struggling on the mat at times he’s also a BJJ black belt. He’ll mix in takedown attempts of his own, landing 15 of 36 attempts in his 17 UFC fights (41.7% accuracy). On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 17 of their 43 attempts (60.5% defense). While he has good power, Li typically doesn’t put up crazy striking totals, averaging 4.46 SSL/min and 3.84 SSA/min. After nearly two years away and coming off a spine injury, it will be important to monitor Li closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Prates will have a 1” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 36-year-old Li.
According to Prates, these two actually trained together a little in Thailand years ago, but that was so far back in the past that it likely won’t play much of a factor. They’re both dangerous strikers, but Prates has shown a wider arsenal of attacks on the feet, while Li generally mixes in a little more wrestling. They’re both BJJ black belts should this fight hit the mat, but there’s a good chance it plays out mostly on the feet. Prates has shown no interest in wrestling and Li is coming off a spine injury that could potentially deter him from looking to wrestle, and he’s primarily a striker anyways. It will be interesting to see how Li looks after so long away, and neck injuries are no joke. Vintage Li would have a shot at pulling off the upset either by knockout or in a decision, but we have no idea how he’ll look, while Prates has looked deadly. The uncertainty surrounding Li’s current form introduces a massive amount of volatility, with all the upside being in Prates’ favor. However, if Li comes in looking like his past self then we should have a fun striking battle in store. If he doesn’t, then Prates will likely finish him in the first two rounds. That uncertainty makes it a trickier spot to predict, but Prates has all the momentum going in his favor and Li still needs to show us that he’s still the same guy before we can get behind him. So Prates will be the pick and we’ll say he hands Li the first knockout loss of his career.
Our favorite bet here is “Prates/Li FGTD” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Prates is a patient but lethal striker who very rarely looks to wrestle. That leaves him entirely reliant on well-timed finishes, but that hasn’t exactly been an issue for him. He’s landed eight straight knockouts in the first two rounds and 22 of his 25 pro fights ended early. He scored 106 DraftKings points in his recent late first round knockout win over Charlie Radtke, after putting up 95 points in a late second round knockout win in his UFC debut against Trevin Giles just before that. The fact that he failed to crack 100 points in a late second round finish is a good indicator that he’ll need a first round finish to return value at his high salary here. Li has never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and Prates is also a BJJ black belt, but rarely looks to show it. However, Li is coming off a near two-year layoff following a spine injury and is now 36 years old. So who knows how Li will look and Prates is by no means a tune up fight. Maybe Li will look just as good as he has in the past, but he also could look terrible given the circumstances. That leaves Prates with an uncertain floor but a solid ceiling, although we’re still calling him a R1 KO or bust option at his high salary—at least on DraftKings. His style of fighting is better suited to the FanDuel scoring system and he still has the potential to return value with a later finish over there. The odds imply Prates has a 76% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Li’s last four wins have all come by KO, as have 8 of his 11 UFC victories. He averaged 104 DraftKings points in those eight knockout wins, but doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns and only averaged 74 points in his three decision wins, failing to top 80 in any of those. That generally leaves him reliant on knocking opponents out to return value, although at his cheap price salary it’s not impossible that he could still serve as a value play in a decision win here. However, he comes in with multiple red flags, as he’s coming off a 23 month layoff due to a spine injury and is now 36 years old and going against a very dangerous finisher. It is somewhat encouraging that Li has never been knocked out, but he’s also never been in his current situation before. Also encouraging for Li’s upside is that Prates was finished in five of his six pro losses, although all of those were early in his career and no one has put him away early since 2017. Ultimately, this is a volatile matchup and both fighters have a wide range of scoring outcomes, meaning we’ll probably want to have some exposure without being overextended on the fight. The odds imply Li has a 24% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Rozenstruik is coming off a post R4 TKO win over Shamil Gaziev, who predictably gassed out after the first round in a March main event. Rozenstruik patiently picked Gaziev apart instead of pushing for a finish and eventually Gaziev simply quit after the fourth round, claiming he couldn’t see. Rozenstruik finished ahead 127-22 in significant strikes and 140-27 in total strikes, while Gaziev only landed one of his seven takedown attempts, with that lone takedown coming in round one. Prior to that, Rozenstruik suffered a first round submission loss to Jailton Almeida, after landing a quick 23 second knockout win over Chris Daukaus, who has been knocked out in four straight fights and dropped down to Light Heavyweight after his loss to Rozenstruik. Just before that, Rozenstruik suffered a first round TKO loss to Alexander Volkov, although it looked like a quick stoppage. That followed a three-round decision loss to Curtis Blaydes and Rozenstruik is just 2-3 in his last five fights and has struggled to string wins together recently. The last time he won two in a row was in 2019 and since then he’s gone just 4-5 in his last nine fights. However, his losses have all come against elite competition in Jailton Almeida, Alexander Volkov, Curtis Blaydes, Ciryl Gane, and Francis Ngannou. Everytime Rozenstruik gets a step down in competition, he knocks them out and only once in his career did he lose back-to-back fights. All eight of Rozenstruik’s UFC wins ended in KO/TKOs, as did five of his six wins before joining the organization.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Rozenstruik has 13 wins by KO/TKO and one split decision victory, which was in 2018, a year before he joined the UFC. Nine of his knockout wins ended in round one, two came in round two, one occurred in between the fourth and fifth rounds, and one ended in round five. He also has two R1 KO/TKO losses on his record, one first round submission defeat, and two decision losses.
Overall, Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional Surinamese kickboxer. He has zero desire to go to the mat and has only attempted a single takedown in his UFC career, which was in the fourth round against Gaziev. He does have a 75% takedown defense, although only 6 of his 13 UFC opponents actually tried to take him down and they combined to land 11 takedowns on 44 attempts, with each of those opponents getting him down at least once. He’s always a threat to finish fights with a single blow, but doesn’t land much striking volume and only averages 3.44 SSL/min and 2.78 SSA/min. He lost all five of the UFC fights where he was outlanded on the feet, while he’s 8-0 when he holds a striking lead. Now he’ll travel into enemy territory to take on a fellow striker.
Tai Tuivasa
16th UFC Fight (8-7)Coming in sideways, Tuivasa has been finished in four straight fights, with the last three of those losses ending in under 10 minutes and the last two coming by submission. His most recent defeat ended in a first round submission against Marcin Tybura, who is a BJJ black belt but hadn’t submitted anybody since 2014. Tuivasa drew first blood, but Tybura got the fight to the mat a minute and a half in and never gave up the position. After securing the takedown, Tybura battered Tuivasa with ground and pound before eventually locking up a rear-naked choke. That fight took place in March, but it was originally booked a month earlier on the UFC 298 card, but then got pushed back and turned into a main event. The reason for the change was that Tuivasa tore his meniscus during training in late December, which required surgery and about a six week recovery time. Prior to that, Tuivasa was submitted by Alexander Volkov in the second round of a September 2023 fight, which is Volkov’s only submission win since 2016. That came after Tuivasa got knocked out in just 54 seconds by Sergei Pavlovich, following a third round knockout defeat against Ciryl Gane. Leading up to those losses, Tuivasa had landed five straight knockouts of his own, all in under seven minutes. Just before losing to Gane, Tuivasa knocked out Derrick Lewis in the second round, after finishing a series of struggling opponents in Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, Harry Hunsucker, and Stefan Struve. Prior to that winning streak, Tuivasa had gone on another three-fight skid, with a second round knockout loss to Junior dos Santos, a decision loss to a wrestler in Blagoy Ivanov, and a second round submission loss to another wrestler in Sergey Spivak.
Now 14-7 as a pro, Tuivasa has one decision win and 13 knockout victories, with 11 of those finishes ending in round one and two in the first half of round two. Tuivasa has been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has one decision defeat. He’s just 1-5 in his career in fights that have made it past the seven minute mark, losing the last five of those. The only time he won a fight that lasted longer than seven minutes was in a 2018 decision win against Andrei Arlovski.
Overall, Tuivasa is a one-dimensional striker with no ground game. He throws heavy leg kicks and has no problem taking part in a brawl. He averages 3.96 SSL/min and 5.05 SSA/min and has never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 11 of their 26 attempts (57.7% defense). Tuivasa is notably the only fighter to ever knock Ciryl Gane down, who after their fight said Tuivasa is the hardest hitter he’s ever faced. And keep in mind, Gane was coming off a loss to Francis Ngannou. We’ve seen Tuivasa go on skids before and bounce back, but he’s running out of time if he wants to salvage his career. While he’ll be fighting at home, he did his camp in Abu Dhabi for this fight, which is at least encouraging for his ability to cut out distractions during his preparation.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’2”, but Rozenstruik will have a 3” reach advantage. Tuivasa is five years younger than the 36-year-old Rozenstruik.
This is a pretty straightforward matchup between two one-dimensional strikers who have never taken anyone down in the UFC. They both carry a ton of power, but Rozenstruik is the far more technical of the two, while Tuivasa is more of a brawler. However, Tuivasa does throw heavy leg kicks, so he can at least attack opponents at multiple levels. A clean fight favors Rozenstruik, so Tuivasa will likely want to make it ugly and put on a show for the home crowd in the process. We’ve seen both of these guys hurt before, so it’s not like either of them are indestructible. The winner could be determined by who lands the first big clean shot, which makes it a more volatile matchup. Rozenstruik is the rightful favorite, but there’s still a decent chance that Tuivasa can catch him with something and pull off the upset. So this definitely isn’t a spot where we want to be laying the chalk on Rozenstruik, but it would be surprising if this made it past the second round. The only thing we’re confident in is that someone’s getting knocked out, but it’s tougher to say who that will be. Given the volatility, we’re more interested in taking the wider odds with Tuivasa, but Rozenstruik does a better job of avoiding damage and has shown the ability to land knockouts even late in fights, so he’s still the more likely of the two to win.
Our favorite bet here is “Rozenstruik/Tuivasa Under 1.5 Rounds” at -190.
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DFS Implications:
Rozenstruik is your prototypical KO or bust fighter, with all eight of his UFC wins ending in knockouts. He averaged 108 DraftKings points in those eight wins, with three of them ending in 29 seconds or less and garnering the Quick Win Bonus. He scored 106 DraftKings points in his one other first round finish, while he only managed to score 97 and 94 points in his two second round knockouts. He also put up 93 points in his recent post R4 TKO win and 90 points in a late fifth round knockout against Overeem back in 2019. While those scores in his later finishes aren’t terrible, they also aren’t enough for him to crack the optimal lineup at his expensive price tag in this matchup. So by all indications, he’ll need a first round finish to be useful, and even then there’s still a chance he could get outscored by the other expensive options and priced out of tournament winning lineups. He’s also habitually popular in DFS, which lowers his tournament appeal on this smaller slate. Nevertheless, Rozenstruik has the second highest chance of landing a finish of anyone on the slate according to the odds, only behind Tom Nolan. The odds imply Rozenstruik has a 66% chance to win, a 55% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.
Tuivasa is another stereotypical KO or bust Heavyweight who relies on knocking opponents out early to win fights. Only one of his 14 pro wins came beyond the seven minute mark and he averaged 104 DraftKings points in his eight UFC victories. He only scored 65 points in his lone decision victory, but hasn’t required the judges in any of his last 10 fights. Eleven of his 13 career knockouts came in round one, with the other two occurring in the opening two minutes of round two. In those two second round finishes, he “only” scored 96 and 99 DraftKings points respectively, which would likely still be enough for him to end up in winning lineups at his cheap salary. However, it’s hard to be confident in a fighter who’s coming off four straight early losses. And despite all of his recent struggles, Tuivasa still tends to carry a decent amount of DFS ownership. We expect this fight to be heavily owned as a whole and the only way to get different in this spot will be to go underweight on it, which takes a fair amount of intestinal fortitude. Because just like everyone else, we’re expecting someone to get knocked out. The odds imply Tuivasa has a 34% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Mateusz Gamrot
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Gamrot is coming off a decision win over Rafael dos Anjos and four of his last five fights have gone the distance (3-1), after his first three UFC wins all came early. Gamrot’s only early win in his last five fights came when Rafael Fiziev suffered a freak knee injury in a 2023 main event. In his recent win over Dos Anjos, Gamrot landed 11 of his 19 takedown attempts and finished with seven minutes of control time, while also leading 57-36 in significant strikes and 111-39 in total strikes. However Dos Anjos did knock Gamrot down in the first round before Gamrot took over from that point. That came after Gamrot won by default over Fiziev in the freak knee injury. However, Gamrot was able to land a takedown against the incredibly stout 90% takedown defense of Fiziev and the striking was basically dead even (19-17 in favor of Fiziev) in a lower volume tactical battle leading up to the abrupt stoppage. Prior to that, Gamrot won a split decision over Jalin Turner, in a fight that Gamrot accepted on just over two weeks’ notice. Gamrot was able to land 4 of his 12 takedown attempts, with nearly seven minutes of control time, while Turner finished ahead 40-29 in significant strikes. That came just after Gamrot lost a decision in an insane grappling battle against Beneil Dariush, where Gamrot was only able to land 4 of his 19 takedown attempts and finished with just 127 seconds of control time. Dariush also knocked Gamrot down in the third round, while out striking him in the later rounds. Leading up to that loss, Gamrot won four straight fights, with the most recent of those wins coming in a five-round decision over Arman Tsarukyan, after Gamrot finished three aging veterans in Diego Ferreira, Jeremy Stephens, and Scott Holtzman.
Now 24-2 as a pro, Gamrot has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and 11 decision victories. All seven of Gamrots KO/TKO wins occurred in the later rounds, with five ending in round two and two in round three. However, three of his five submission wins occurred in the first round, with another ending in round two, and the final coming in the fourth round of a 2018 KSW Lightweight Championship fight. He’s never been finished, with both of his career losses going the distance. Gamrot has spent almost his entire career at 155 lb, but did drop down to 145 lb once in 2018 to secure his second KSW belt. He generally tends to wear on his opponents and 19 of his last 20 fights made it out of the first round, with 13 of those seeing a third round, and 10 going the distance.
Overall, Gamrot is a relentless wrestler, a BJJ black belt, and a decent striker. He’s the former KSW Lightweight and Featherweight Champion who came into the UFC with a perfect 17-0 record and a ton of experience under his belt. In his nine UFC fights, he landed 38 of his 107 takedown attempts (35.5%), landing at least four takedowns in six of those nine matches and attempting 12 or more in all five of his UFC fights to make it beyond the second round. On the other side of things, he’s only been taken down by his opponents on one of their 11 attempts (90.9% defense). He’s not a guy who generally puts up big striking totals, as he averages just 3.09 SSL/min and 3.07 SSA/min, but he has talked about how he’s been working on his striking at American Top Team. However, he notably said he stayed in Poland for this training camp.
Dan Hooker
23rd UFC Fight (22-9)Hooker is 13 months removed from a split decision win over Jalin Turner. The first two rounds of that fight were really close, before Hooker took over in round three as Turner faded. Turner notably missed weight by 2 lb for the fight, which could have contributed to him fading down the stretch. Hooker finished ahead 125-100 in significant strikes and 172-113 in total strikes, while also knocking Turner down once in the third round. Turner was only able to land one of his three takedown attempts and finished with just 18 seconds of control time. Hooker was then scheduled to face Bobby Green in December 2023, but was forced to pull out after reinjuring his arm. Prior to beating Turner, Hooker landed a second round TKO win via body kicks over a one-dimensional grappler in Claudio Puelles, which is Hooker’s only finish in his last nine fights. While things have been going well for Hooker lately, leading up to his current two-fight winning streak he went just 1-4 in his previous five fights. In fairness to him, those losses came against incredibly tough opponents in Arnold Allen (down at 145 lb), Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler, and Dustin Poirier.
Now 23-12 as a pro, Hooker has 11 wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has six decision defeats. While he’s been knocked out three times in his last 11 fights, the only person to submit him since 2012 is the current champion Islam Makhachev. Nine of Hooker’s last 10 fights either ended in the first round (1-3) or went the distance (4-1), with the one exception being his second round finish over Puelles. Hooker started his career at 155 lb, but dropped down to 145 lb when he joined the UFC. However, after going 3-3 in his first six UFC fights, he moved back up to 155 lb in 2017, where he’s stayed for the most part, outside of one failed trip back down to 145 lb in 2022 when he got finished by Arnold Allen in the first round.
Overall, Hooker is primarily a striker but will sporadically mix in takedowns in the right matchup. However, he’s just a BJJ purple belt and has only locked up two submissions since 2013, which were a pair of guillotines in 2016 and 2017. In his last 10 fights, he landed 8 of his 24 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 3 of their 24 attempts (87.5% defense). Looking at his entire 22-fight UFC career, Hooker has a 34% takedown accuracy and an 80% defense, but his defense has actually improved since he moved up to 155 lb. He also averages 5.08 SSL/min and 4.76 SSA and is typically looking to put on a good show. Normally he has to travel across the globe to fight, but he’ll get to make the short trip over to Australia from New Zealand for this matchup and will have the crowd behind him.
Fight Prediction:
Hooker will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
It’s no secret what Gamrot’s game plan will be, as he comes into every fight looking to wrestle. So unless he’s the latest fatality of the UFC brass telling fighters they can’t wrestle, look for him to attack takedowns early and often. However, Hooker has a really stout 80% takedown defense, and no one has gotten him down more than once in his last 15 fights. We expect that to change here, but it’s still less likely that Gamrot will be able to put up a huge takedown total. Hooker is the more dangerous striker and will also have the crowd behind him, which could shorten the leash on the ref standing the fight back up and may also help Hooker if this ends in a close decision. Hooker has gone 4-1 in his last five decisions, with the one loss coming in a five-round war against Dustin Poirier. While Gamrot has never been finished, he’s somehow been knocked down in four of his last five fights and damage could loom large in a decision. It’s not impossible that Hooker could hand Gamrot his first early loss, although Hooker only has one finish since 2019 and it was against a low-level grappler in Claudio Puelles. So there’s a much higher chance that this does go the distance, and at that point the judges will likely be forced to weigh the takedowns and control time of Gamrot versus the striking and damage of Hooker, similar to Gamrot’s split decision win over Jalin Turner. It’s always hard to know how those decisions will go and it often comes down to who’s judging the fight. Because of that, we’re happy to play the numbers and Hooker’s decision line at +550 looks a lot more appealing than Gamrots’ at -125. So while it’s always tough betting against Gamrot, we’ll bite on the dog shot with Hooker here.
Our favorite bet here is “Dan Hooker DEC” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Gamrot has averaged 102 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, scoring 97 or more in five of those, and is coming off a career-best 131 point performance where he landed 11 takedowns in a decision win over a 39-year-old Rafael dos Anjos, who came in with just a 56% takedown defense. However, Gamrot only scored 86 DraftKings points in his second most recent decision win, which was against the more stout 74% takedown defense of Jalin Turner. And in his third most recent decision, Gamrot lost and only scored 38 points against the 80% takedown defense of Beneil Dariush. So we’ve seen a pretty strong correlation between Gamrot’s scoring and his opponents’ takedown defenses. Now he’s going up against the 80% takedown defense of Dan Hooker, which is actually even higher if you only look at his 155 lb fights. No one has gotten Hooker down more than once in any of his last 15 fights and this doesn’t look like a good matchup for Gamrot to put up another massive takedown total. However, we don’t expect that to stop him from trying and he’ll likely still take Hooker down a few times, but it will be tougher for him to put up another huge score in a decision. That likely leaves him more reliant on landing a finish, which he’s certainly capable of, although four of his last five fights went the distance. And while he’s shown a really solid scoring floor and recently demonstrated a massive ceiling, that was the first time he ever scored more than 108 DraftKings points. So even if he does finish Hooker or land more takedowns than we’re expecting, there’s still a decent chance he’ll get priced out of winning lineups given all of the high-upside fighters at the top end of the salary range. That leaves us less interested in playing him and his recent scoring explosion will likely drive up his ownership some from where it has been in the past. The odds imply Gamrot has a 75% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Hooker has managed to win two in a row after going just 1-4 in his previous five and has impressively averaged 100 DraftKings points in his 13 UFC wins. Only once did he fail to score at least 85 points in a victory and he totaled 93 or more points in 11 of his 13 wins. Now he checks in as the third cheapest fighter on the card, albeit in a terrible stylistic matchup to score well. Gamrot is a relentless wrestler who will be looking to take Hooker down and control him from start to finish. That will force Hooker to play defense for most of this match, making it tougher for him to score well without a finish. And while Gamrot has amazingly been knocked down in four of his last five fights, he’s still never been finished. Given just how cheap he is, it’s still possible that Hooker could serve as a value play even in a lower scoring decision win, but that will all depend on how many other underdogs win. The odds imply Hooker has a 25% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Steve Erceg
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Erceg recently had an 11-fight losing streak snapped in a five-round decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja for the Flyweight belt. While he didn’t come out victorious, Erceg gave a good account of himself, winning two rounds in the fight and splitting Pantoja open with an elbow midway through the match. While Erceg looked good on the feet in that fight, Pantoja was clearly on a different level on the mat and took Erceg down nine times and controlled him for over eight minutes to win the fight. Erceg foolishly looked to take the fight to the mat in round five, which may have cost him the fight, as Pantoja was able to reverse the position and take control of a fight that was even on two of the scorecards. That loss came just nine weeks after Erceg knocked out a fragile Matt Schnell early in round two with a perfect walk-off left hook. Prior to that, Erceg won a pair of 29-28 decisions in his first two UFC fights. In the most recent of those, Erceg defeated Alessandro Costa, who stepped in on short notice. That came after Erceg was the one stepping in on short notice as he made his UFC debut against David Dvorak, who entered the matchup as the #10 ranked Flyweight. It wasn’t the most exciting fight, but Erceg was able to drop Dvorak with a head kick in round two, but failed to put him away as he tried to finish things with a guillotine. Born and raised in Australia, before joining the UFC Erceg had been fighting for the Eternal MMA promotion, where he won the Flyweight belt over a highly suspect Shannon Ross back in 2020. Erceg then took a short notice fight up a weight class in his next match, winning a grappling-heavy decision at 135 lb. He then dropped back down to 125 lb and defended the Flyweight belt in a first round submission win against Paul Loga, who he had already knocked out once before. The promotion then opted not to put the belt on the line in Erceg’s next fight, and when asked why, Erceg said he thought it was because his opponent wasn’t from Australia and he didn’t think the promotion would want to pay to fly him in for future title fights if he won. Erceg once again locked up a first round submission and three of his last four fights before joining the UFC ended in first round submission wins. However, while 8 of Erceg’s 12 pro wins ended early, three of his last four fights have now gone the distance.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Erceg has two wins by KO (both in under six minutes), six submissions, and four decision victories. Four of his submissions ended in round one, while another occurred in round two, and the last in round three. His last five finishes all occurred in under six minutes, with four of those ending in the first round. He’s never been finished, with both of his pro losses going the distance. Erceg has competed at 135 lb a few times, but most of his career has been spent at 125 lb.
Overall, Erceg is an Australian BJJ black belt who has really good size for the Flyweight division. Half of his career wins have ended in submissions, although he’s also willing to stand and trade with opponents and his striking has looked much better since he joined the UFC. He’s got a good left hook, which is how he finished both of his career knockout wins. In his four UFC fights, he landed 5 of his 19 takedown attempts (26.3% accuracy), while he got taken down by his opponents 11 times on 28 attempts (60.7% defense). He’s still only 29 years old and seems to be getting better every time he steps inside the Octagon, and now he’ll get to fight in front of his home crowd.
Kai Kara-France
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Kara-France is 14 months removed from a highly questionable, five-round, split-decision loss to Amir Albazi, where Kara-France finished ahead 99-43 in significant strikes, 133-64 in total strikes, and 2-1 in takedowns. Albazi was able to get Kara-France down once in the third round and nearly completed a rear-naked choke, but that was his only real moment in the fight and Kara-France outlanded him in every round. Kara-France was then booked to face Manel Kape in September 2023, but pulled out due to a concussion, which then resulted in his extended layoff. Prior to losing to Albazi, Kara-France suffered a third round TKO loss in a close Interim Flyweight title fight against Brandon Moreno. That came after Kara-France won a close decision over Askar Askarov, who nearly submitted Kara-France in the first round. Prior to that, Kara-France took on a chinless Cody Garbrandt, who in an ill-advised move was attempting to drop down to 125 lb for the first time. Shockingly, Garbrandt’s chin didn’t improve after cutting even more weight and Kara-France knocked him out in round one. Kara-France landed another first round KO just before that, against Rogerio Bontorin, who also nearly submitted Kara-France before having the tables turned. Against both Askarov and Bontorin, Kara-France did a great job of fighting the hands of his opponents to narrowly avoid getting choked out. However, just before knocking out Bontorin, Kara-France got submitted by Brandon Royval via second round guillotine following an insanely high-paced action-packed first round where Royval never stopped forcing the action. While four of Kara-France’s last six fights ended early, his first five UFC fights all went the distance. It’s been two and a half years since Kara-France won a fight, with his last victory occurring in March 2022.
Now 24-11 as a pro, Kara-France has 11 wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has five decision defeats. Two of his knockout losses occurred in his first three pro fights from 2011 to 2012, and the only time he’s been knocked out since 2012 was from a liver kick in the third round of a 2022 fight against Brandon Moreno. Two of his three submission losses occurred in the first round of consecutive 2014 fights, with his other coming in the opening minute of round two against Royval in 2020.
Overall, Kara-France is a one-dimensional striker, but has shown both a solid takedown and submission defense. In his 11 UFC fights, his opponents took him down on just 6 of their 50 attempts (88% defense), while he landed 6 of his 18 attempts (33.3% accuracy). He lands okay but not eye-popping striking volume at 4.57 SSL/min, and he’s never landed or absorbed more than 99 significant strikes in a fight. He’s still only 31 years old and is part of the City Kickboxing team, so he’s got a good team around him.
Fight Prediction:
Erceg will have a 4” height advantage, but Kara-France will have a 1” reach advantage. Erceg is two years younger than the 31-year-old Kara-France.
This looks like a fun matchup between two highly ranked Flyweights, neither of whom had to travel far for this fight. Erceg will be representing Australia, while Kara-France is making the short trip over from New Zealand. Erceg will have a noticeable size advantage and is also a much better grappler than Kara-France, however, Kara-France has an elite 88% takedown defense and is really tough to get down. When he has been taken down, Kara-France has been in some precarious spots on the mat, but he’s shown the ability to narrowly escape rear-naked chokes at multiple points. And while Kara-France has been finished six times in his career, he’s only been knocked out once since 2012 and that was from a liver kick in an interim title fight. Meanwhile, Erceg has never been finished and there’s a good chance this fight goes the full three rounds. While Kara-France is the more experienced fighter, he’s also coming off a long layoff, while Erceg has been staying busy, with four fights since Kara-France last competed. So activity, size, grappling, and power, all favor Erceg in this matchup, and he’ll also have the home crowd behind him. Kara-France has had the better striking defense (65% vs. 52%) and takedown defense (88% vs. 60%), so it’s certainly possible that he can keep the fight standing and squeak out a win in a striking battle, but we see more ways for Erceg to win, and we lean towards him getting his hand raised, likely in a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Erceg/Kara-France FGTD” at -210.
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DFS Implications:
Erceg has averaged 84 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, with two of those going the distance. He was able to score 87 points in the most recent of those decision wins, after only putting up 70 points in the win in his short notice UFC debut. His only finish in the UFC came in a second round knockout against a fragile Matt Schnell, who’s been finished in all six of his official UFC losses and only has one win in his last five outings. Erceg only scored 94 points there, but that can largely be attributed to the poor timing of the knockout, which occurred 26 seconds into round two. So while he’s yet to show a ton of scoring upside, he still has the skill set to get there with a better timed finish, as he’s a BJJ black belt and well rounded fighter who’s dangerous on both the feet and the mat. However, this isn’t a great matchup for him to recognize that scoring ceiling, as Kara-France is pretty defensively sound, with an 88% takedown defense and 65% striking defense. At Erceg’s fairly high salary, it would be surprising to see him return value in a decision and he looks reliant on landing a well-timed finish to end up in the optimal. The line has moved sharply in Kara-France’s favor, which should lower Erceg’s ownership and raise Kara-France’s, which in turn, raises Erceg’s tournament appeal and lowers Kara-France’s. The odds imply Erceg has a 62% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Kara-France has been a boom or bust DFS commodity throughout his UFC career, with three DraftKings scores of 107 or more, but eight of 82 or less, including seven below 65 points. The only two times he scored well in his last 10 fights were in his only two finishes in the UFC, which both ended in first round knockouts. In his five three-round decision wins, he only averaged 74 DraftKings points and even that number is propped up by an outlier performance in his UFC debut. He averaged just 65 DraftKings points in his last four decision wins, failing to top 82 points in any of those and scoring 64 for fewer in three of them. In his most recent three-round decision victory, he scored just 53 DraftKings points and 51 points on FanDuel, showing that even at his cheap price tag he may still need a finish to return a usable score. And on that note, Erceg has never been finished in his career, which seemingly lowers Kara-France’s chances of ending this early. The odds imply Kara-France has a 38% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Israel Adesanya
17th UFC Fight (13-3)Adesanya is 11 months removed from a stunning loss to Sean Strickland, who won a unanimous 49-46 decision as a +500 underdog. The biggest moment of the fight came in the first round when Strickland dropped Adesanya, who was able to survive and bounce back to win round two. However all three judges scored a close round three for Strickland and then he pulled away in rounds four and five as Adesanya just never looked like himself. Strickland finished ahead 137-94 in striking. Just before that, Adesanya knocked out Alex Pereira in the second round, after losing the Middleweight belt to Pereira in a R5 TKO six months earlier, which is the only time Adesanya has ever been finished in an MMA fight. Adesanya was up on the scorecards and just needed to survive for three more minutes to get his hand raised in a decision before Pereira put him away. Prior to that loss, Adesanya had won three straight five-round decisions after losing a five-round decision in the first loss of his MMA career, which came when Adesanya tried to move up a weight class to capture the Light Heavyweight belt against Jan Blachowicz in March 2021. Adesanya originally won the Interim Middleweight belt against Kelvin Gastelum in a 2019 decision, and then became the undisputed champion when he knocked out Robert Whittaker in the second round of his next match. He followed that up with a painfully slow paced decision win over Yoel Romero, before knocking out Paulo Costa in the second round of his subsequent fight. Bored at 185 lb, he then tried to become the double champ when he took on Jan, but came up short in a decision loss. Following the first defeat of his MMA career, he dropped back down to 185 lb and won decisions over Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier, leading up to his loss to Pereira.
Now 24-3 as a pro, Adesanya has 16 wins by KO/TKO and eight decision victories. His only early loss came in a 2022 R5 TKO against Alex Pereira, who then moved up to Light Heavyweight. His other two losses both ended in five-round decisions, with one of those coming up at 205 lb. All 16 of Adesanya’s knockouts occurred in the first two rounds, with seven coming in round one and nine ending in round two. His last three, and four out of his five UFC knockouts came in the second round. Ten of his other 11 UFC fights went the distance, including eight five rounders. His last 12 and 15 of his 16 UFC fights made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a 2018 R1 TKO win over Derek Brunson in the closing seconds of round one. He’s seen the fifth round in six of his last seven fights, with five of those going the distance.
This will be Adesanya’s 12th straight title fight and 13th five-round fight since joining the UFC in 2018. Seven of those previous 11 title fights went the distance (5-2), while three ended in second round knockout wins and one ended in a 5th round TKO loss. He also fought to a five-round decision victory against Brad Tavares in 2018, in his one other UFC five-round fight where no belt was on the line. Prior to joining the UFC, Adesanya had two fights scheduled to go five rounds, but he knocked out both opponents in the first round.
Overall, Adesanya is a calculated counter striker with a celebrated kickboxing career prior to transitioning to MMA. While he’s not a guy that’s generally looking to instigate grappling, he’s great at defending takedowns and returning to his feet when he does get taken down. Considering he’s one of the best strikers on the planet, his opponents are generally looking to get him to the ground, but they have only been able to land 19 takedowns on 86 attempts against him in his 16 UFC fights (77.9% defense). On the other side of things, Adesanya has only attempted seven takedowns of his own in the UFC. Four of those attempts came in his loss to Pereira, while the other three occurred in his first three UFC fights. The only takedown he ever landed came against Pereira. Adesanya only averages 3.93 SSL/min and 3.11 SSA/min, and it’s rare to see huge striking numbers in his matches. After landing 10 knockdowns in his first seven UFC fights, Adesanya has only notched three in his last nine matches.
Dricus Du Plessis
8th UFC Fight (7-0)Stepping into his first title defense, Du Plessis recently won the Middleweight belt in a split decision over Sean Strickland. While Strickland finished ahead 173-137 in significant strikes, Du Plessis split him open in the fight and also took him down six times. Strickland finished well ahead in strikes in rounds one and five, which all three judges scored for him. However, the numbers were very close in all of the middle rounds and Du Plessis won rounds two and four on all the scorecards, while two of the three judges also gave him round three. Prior to that, Du Plessis landed an impressive second round TKO win over the perennial top Middleweight contender in Robert Whittaker. Du Plessis split Whittaker open in the first round and then finished him in round two with a barrage of punches. Du Plessis has now won nine straight fights, going back to before he joined the UFC, finishing seven of those opponents. Just before finishing Whittaker, Du Plessis notched a R2 TKO win over Derek Brunson. The corner of Brunson threw in the towel right as the round ended as Brunson was eating heavy ground and pound shots off his back. Prior to that, Du Plessis landed a third round submission against Darren Till, after seeing the judges for the first time in his career in a decision victory over Brad Tavares. That decision came after Du Plessis knocked out Markus Perez and Trevin Giles in his first two UFC fights. In addition to his current nine-fight winning streak, Du Plessis has won 17 of his last 18 matches, with his lone loss over that stretch coming in a 2018 R3 knockout against Roberto Soldic in a KSW 170 lb title fight. While Du Plessis has only been to the judges twice in 23 pro fights, his last six matches all made it to the second round, with three of his last five seeing the third round and two of those going the distance.
Now 21-2 as a pro, Du Plessis has nine wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and won the only two decisions he’s ever been to. All nine of his knockout wins occurred in the first two rounds, with four in round one and five in round two. His submission wins have been more spread out, with four in round one, three in round two, and three more in round three. The only time he’s ever been knocked out was against Roberto Soldic in the third round of 2018 KSW 170 lb Championship fight. That was a rematch after Du Plessis knocked out Soldic just six months earlier in the second round when those two first fought for the KSW Welterweight belt. The only other loss of Du Plessis’ career was a 2014 third round submission, which took place at 185 lb. Du Plessis has moved between 170 lb and 185 lb throughout his career, but has exclusively fought at 185 lb since suffering the 2018 KO loss to Soldic at 170 lb.
This will be the 9th five-round fight of Du Plessis’ career, but just his second in the UFC. He went 6-2 in his previous eight five-round fights, with five of those eight fights (3-2) being for titles with the KSW and EFC organizations. Four of Du Plessis’ five-round fights were at 170 lb (3-1) and four were at 185 lb (3-1). While his most recent five-round fight ended in a decision win, his previous two 185 lb five-round fights both ended in first round submission wins. While he’s had eight fights scheduled to go five rounds, the first seven of those ended within 15 minutes and he’s only seen the championship rounds once. Here are the results of Du Plessis’ eight five-round fights:
2024 R5 DEC Win at 185 lb UFC Title Fight
2019 R1 SUB Win at 185 lb
2018 R3 KO Loss in a 170 lb KSW Title Fight
2018 R2 KO Win in a 170 lb KSW Title Fight
2017 R1 SUB Win in a 185 lb EFC Title Fight
2017 R1 KO Win at 170 lb
2016 R3 SUB Win in a 170 lb EFC Title Fight
2014 R3 SUB Loss in a 185 lb EFC Title Fight
Overall, Du Plessis is an explosive fighter with the ability to finish fights at any moment. He’s a powerful striker and a decent grappler who trained judo as a kid and loves to look for guillotines. He made his title aspirations clear from the start of his UFC career and he always looks for finishes, with 91% of his fights ending early. Earlier in his UFC career, Du Plessis had been dealing with breathing issues through his nose, which may have impacted his cardio, or at the very least resulted in terrible visuals as he would breath heavily through his mouth. He finally got his nose fixed before his fight against Whittaker and the visuals have been better since then. He operates at a really high pace, averaging 6.49 SSL/min and 4.77 SSA/min, which does test both his own cardio and that of his opponents, but it’s rarely Du Plessis who breaks first. He also landed 16 takedowns on 31 attempts (51.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on three of their five attempts (40% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Adesanya will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while Du Plessis is five years younger than the 35-year-old Adesanya.
Adesanya had talked about taking an extended absence away from the sport after his last loss but here we are 11 months later and he’s right back into another title fight. He looked off in the Strickland fight and it’s hard to know if that was due to the matchup or if we’re finally seeing Adesanya’s decline. Strickland did a good job pressuring him and backing him up against the fence, which is something that Du Plessis could theoretically do as well, especially if Adesanya has lost a step. However, if that was just an off night and we see vintage Adesanya here, then he should be able to pick Du Plessis apart from the outside and use his size, reach, and quickness to outland his way to victory. Both guys have been durable and they’ve each only been knocked out once in their respective careers. So while they both have the ability to finish the other, we like this fight to go the distance more often than not, despite the oddsmakers predicting it to end early. If Adesanya looks like he did against Strickland, then Du Plessis will likely retain the belt, but we’re willing to give Adesanya the benefit of the doubt and we’ll say he bounces back and puts on a more inspired performance to win back the Middleweight belt for the second time in his last few fights.
Our favorite bet here is “Adesanya/Du Plessis FGTD” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Adesanya averaged just 89 DraftKings points in his previous nine wins in five-round UFC fights. Three of those nine wins ended in second round knockouts, where he averaged 101 points, while six went the distance, where he averaged just 82 points. He only topped 86 DraftKings points in one of those six decision wins, which was when he landed an insane four knockdowns against Kelvin Gastelum in 2019 and scored 117 points. Adesanya only averages 3.93 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown in 16 UFC appearances, which leaves him reliant on knockdowns and knockouts to score well. Working in his favor for this matchup, Adesanya is affordably priced at just $8,300 on DraftKings and Du Plessis averages 4.77 SSA/min. We also have a smaller card, leaving him with less scoring competition, and there are no $8,400 or $7,800 fighters on the card, leaving the value in the middle of the salary range a little thinner. Because Adesanya has rarely scored well, his DraftKings ownership rarely gets out of control and he checked in between 30–36% in each of his last five fights. While that’s not “low owned” it is lower owned than your typical five-round favorite, which adds to his tournament appeal. With that said, even at his mid-range salary, he could still get left out of the optimal lineup in a decision or with a poorly timed finish and he’s coming off an 11 month layoff following the worst performance of his career. He just turned 35 years old, so he’s also starting to get up there in age and this will be a pivotal fight in his career. The odds imply Adesanya has a 50% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Du Plessis is undefeated in the UFC and finished five of his seven opponents. He averaged 115 DraftKings points in those five early wins and also scored 119 points in his recent five-round decision win over Strickland. The only time Du Plessis scored fewer than 108 DraftKings points was in a three-round decision win over Brad Tavares, where Du Plessis only put up 80 points. His uptempo striking (6.49 SSL/min) combined with his grappling (3.0 TDL/15 min) has allowed him to score really well even with finishes in the later rounds, and now he’s priced at just $7,900 on DraftKings. However, Adesanya is a really tough fighter to score well against, as he averages just 3.11 SSA/min, has a 77% takedown defense, and has only been finished once in his career. Sean Strickland scored 95 DraftKings points against Adesanya in a five-round decision win and Alex Pereira scored 92 points in a R5 TKO victory over the former champ. While there’s still a decent chance that a similar score here would be enough for Du Plessis to still end up in winning lineups, it’s far from a guarantee and neither Strickland nor Pereira made it into the the winner on DraftKings or FanDuel in their wins. Du Plessis has also historically been very popular in DFS, which further lowers his tournament appeal. The odds imply Du Plessis has a 50% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
Here's our top play on the house! For the rest of our PrizePicks plays, check out the DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content on: patreon.com/mmadfs.
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Steve Erceg UNDER 87.5 Pts
