The Sheet

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Fight Day Scratches: Nunes/Calvillo is OFF!

Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Ronnie Lawrence

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Rolling in on a five fight winning streak, Lawrence has only lost one fight in his career, which was a 2016 decision in Bellator against UFC fighter Steve Garcia. He took two and a half years off following the loss before beginning his current winning streak in 2019. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance, and his last four have all made it to the third round. He landed a third round TKO in his 2021 UFC debut and then dropped out of a fight against Trevin Jones in July 2021 due to a botched weight cut. He recently made his second UFC appearance in a decision win over Mana Martinez in February 2022.

In his last fight, Lawrence took Martinez down 80 seconds into the first round. While Martinez was able to return to his feet midway through the round, Lawrence then dropped him with a right hand to return him to the mat, where Lawrence ended the round in top position. Lawrence dropped Martinez again early in round two, and while Martinez was able to return to his feet once again, Lawrence ridiculously landed a third knockdown just moments later. While Martinez showed his toughness to survive the assault, as soon as he returned to his feet Lawrence landed a takedown and again finished the round in top position. Martinez finally got something going late in round three as he dropped Lawrence with a spinning backfist and then immediately knocked him down a second time. However, despite clearing being hurt, Lawrence was able to land a takedown to buy time to recover. Martinez briefly returned to his feet only to get taken down one final time to close out the fight. Lawrence finished the fight with six takedowns on seven attempts with over eight minutes of control time. He also led in significant strikes 46-39 with three knockdowns, but Martinez led in total strikes 105-63.

Now 8-1 as a pro, Lawrence has four wins by KO/TKO and four decisions. His only loss also went the distance. Seven of his last eight fights have made it to the second round, with six seeing round three, and five ending in decisions.

Overall, Lawrence is a relentless wrestler and has also shown he can be dangerous on the feet. With that said, we’ve also seen him get rocked in the striking exchanges, so he has looked vulnerable standing. He has good footwork and never stops moving, which makes him a tough guy to track down. He’s impressively landed 26 takedowns on 33 attempts (79%) in his last three fights going back to DWCS. While his sheer takedown numbers are impressive, his takedown accuracy is even more impressive, and he’s landed 14 of his 16 attempts in his last two matches. He’s a BJJ brown belt and a “black sash and gray dragon in white tiger kung fu,” which definitely doesn’t sound made up.

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

It’s been nearly a year since Kakhramonov won his short notice UFC debut against Trevin Jones with a late third round guillotine choke. He had been scheduled to fight in January against Brian Kelleher, but ended up testing positive for COVID and being forced to withdraw. His last five fights have all ended early (4-1), and the last time he went the distance was in a 2018 decision loss to an undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who has looked unstoppable. The only other loss of Kakhramonov’s career came in a 2019 R3 KO, concerningly against an opponent who’s lost three of his other four most recent fights, including a R1 KO loss to Danny Chavez. Just prior to making his debut, Kakhramonov landed an early second round KO victory for the Cage Fury FC Vacant Bantamweight Championship belt in March 2021. Kakhramonov looked explosive as he dominated his opponent for the entire fight and he landed several knockdowns in a fight that lasted just five and a half minutes. Prior to that, he knocked out Askar Askar in just 30 seconds.

In his last fight, Kakhramonov spent most of the match pinned up against the cage and we only saw 48 combined significant strikes landed, with Kakhramonov leading 36-12 in a fight that nearly went the distance. Jones finished ahead in control time 8:59-1:07, but was only able to land one of his eight takedown attempts, while Kakhramonov landed two takedowns on seven attempts. Kakhramonov also finished with four official submission attempts and ahead in total strikes 123-70. The fight was on its way to ending in a decision, but as Jones shot for a final takedown attempt in the closing minute Kakhramonov wrapped up a standing guillotine and choked him unconscious.

Now 9-2 as pro, Kakhramonov has three wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out once and the only time he’s ever lost a decision was against Umar Nurmagomedov in 2018. Five of his seven finishes have come in the first round, one ended in round two, and the most recent was in round three. Kakhramonov started his career at 145 lb, but moved down to 135 lb in 2018.

Overall, Kakhramonov is an explosive striker and has the potential to make some noise in the UFC if he can continue to evolve as a fighter. He gets a little wild at times as he looks to kill his opponents with every shot, which tends to drain his cardio later in fights. He’s still just 26 years old and should be showing improvements between every fight, especially after a year away following his short notice UFC debut. He’s a Judo black belt and a BJJ brown belt and has shown he can hold his own against high level wrestlers. He missed weight by 2.5 lb for his short notice UFC debut, so it’s worth keeping an eye on him at weigh-ins.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’8” but Kakhramonov will have a 1” reach advantage.

Lawrence has yet to face anyone that has shown they know how to defend a takedown. His first UFC fight was against Vince Cachero, who has an 18% takedown defense and was taken down at least five times in each of his two UFC fights. Most recently, Lawrence faced Mana Martinez, who has a 12% takedown defense and was submitted by Drako Rodriguez on DWCS. Obviously those takedown defense numbers are heavily affected by the success Lawrence had against Cachero and Martinez, but the fact remains that neither of those two have shown they can defend takedowns from anybody at the UFC level. Now Lawrence goes up against a Judo black belt who defended seven of the eight takedowns attempted against him in his short notice UFC debut and who went toe-to-toe with Umar Nurmagomedov back in 2018, defending 70% of Nurmagomedov’s attempts in that fight. Maybe Lawrence is the real deal and will continue to take down his opponents with ease, but this should be his first real test. If Lawrence isn’t able to find the same wrestling success, he’ll likely be in trouble in a pure striking battle, as we saw him get dropped twice late in his last fight and Kakhramonov can crack. Kakhramonov is also a threat to land submissions and he amassed four official submission attempts before finally completing a late guillotine in his last match. So while the most likely outcome here is still probably that Lawrence wrestles his way to another decision win, he’ll be in constant peril throughout the fight from both the striking and submission attempts from Kakhramonov. This could go either way, but forced to choose we’ll still say Lawrence wins a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Kakhramonov ITD” at +275.

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DFS Implications:

Lawrence has broken both of the slates he’s been on, scoring 131 and 135 DraftKings points, while landing 14 of his 16 takedown attempts. He’s been in favorable matchups thus far, but will now face his first true test as he squares off against a well rounded fighter in Kakhramonov, who’s a dangerous striker, a Judo black belt, and a BJJ brown belt. While Lawrence’s ceiling can’t be questioned, we’ve yet to see what his floor looks like when he isn’t able to spam takedowns for 15 minutes. Maybe he’ll just continue to Dvalishvili his way to the top of the division, but we’re not quite ready to anoint him just yet. He showed a suspect chin late in his last fight, getting dropped twice in the third round, and we should see it get tested again here. Lawrence unsurprisingly projects to be massively owned after scoring a combined 266 DraftKings points in his first two UFC fights, so his tournament appeal is automatically lowered, but lock him into low-risk contests. Lawrence’s high ownership creates an interesting leverage spot, but if you fade him and he goes off again, you’ll be drawing dead in tournaments. This is unquestionably a tricky spot with a massively wide range of potential outcomes, but correctly picking the winner could be the difference between taking down a tournament and struggling to min cash. The odds imply Lawrence has a 55% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

Kakhramonov is one of the few recent fighters to make their UFC debut on short notice and actually win. He only scored 89 DraftKings points in the late third round submission victory after getting pressed up against the cage for most of the fight, but he consistently looked for submission throughout the match and is also a dangerous striker. We expect him to once again be defending takedowns for the majority of this fight, but he’s notably a Judo black belt and a BJJ brown belt and his takedown defense has looked solid. He’s still just 26 years old and he hasn’t fought in almost a year, so we’re interested to see what improvements he’s made. His last four wins have all come early, and Lawrence’s chin looked somewhat suspect in his last match, as he got dropped twice in the third round. Kakhramonov also loves to look for guillotines and Lawrence will be shooting for takedowns throughout this fight, which should provide opportunities for Kakhramonov to try and wrap up his neck. So overall, he can be dangerous wherever the fight goes, and he’ll be a huge leverage play against the highly-owned Lawerence. The oddsmakers have this one as being close to a coin flip, which is also encouraging for Kakhramonov’s chances. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Kennedy Nzechukwu

7th UFC Fight (3-3)

Suffering consecutive losses for the first time in his career, Nzechukwu is coming off a split-decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu after getting knocked out for the first time. That knockout came in round one of a November 2021 match against Da Un Jung, who was able to land a series of heavy elbows to put the previously indestructible Nzechukwu away early on. Prior to his recent decision loss, Nzechukwu had seen three straight fights end in KOs (2-1).

In his last fight, we saw a slow start before Nzechukwu began to pick up the pace in the back half of the match as he often does. Unfortunately he was deducted a point in the third round for an eye poke, although that appeared to light a fire under him as he then began pushing for finishing, landing more significant strikes in the third round than he did in the first two rounds combined. However, he was unable to hand Negumereanu the first early loss of his career and the fight went to the scorecards, where the judges had mixed thoughts on who won the first two rounds. The fight ended with Nzechukwu ahead 95-64 in significant strikes and 97-81 in total strikes, while Negumereanu landed one of his five takedown attempts with three and a half minutes of control time. That was enough for two of the judges to say he had won.

Now 9-3 as a pro, Nzechukwu has six wins by KO and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Three of his six KO wins occurred in the second round, two ended in round one and the third ended in round three. Both of his knockout victories in the UFC came in the later rounds and that appears to be when he’s the most dangerous after he’s worn his opponents’ hands down with his face. Five of his six UFC fights have seen the second round, with four going to round three, and two ending in decisions. Nzechukwu is huge for the division and actually made his pro debut at Heavyweight in 2016 before dropping down to Light Heavyweight in 2017.

Overall, Nzechukwu is a big, durable fighter, he’s still pretty raw and often overly cautious. He struggles to let his hands go early in fights and is consistently a slow starter. He’s not super explosive with his striking, but he’s so powerful that it doesn’t matter. He’s huge for the division at 6’5” with an 83” reach and has a solid 80% takedown defense and the ability to simply get up when he does get taken down.

Karl Roberson

10th UFC Fight (4-5)

Coming in sideways on a three fight skid, Roberson hasn’t won a fight since 2019 and his recent move up to 205 lb did not start well as he suffered the first knockout loss of his career. That came against a powerful Light Heavyweight in the ever inconsistent Khalil Rountree. Prior to that, Roberson was submitted in the first round of back-to-back 185 lb fights by Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori, and Roberson has now been finished in three straight fights.

In his last fight, Roberson looked quick, but was reluctant to let his hands go, only even attempting 28 significant strikes, landing 17 of those. The first round was slower paced, with Rountree Jr. controlling the center of the Octagon, but neither guy landed much. That quickly changed in round two as Rountree Jr. dropped Roberson twice in the opening seconds and violently beat him up on the mat in one of the more aggressive finishes you’ll see. Paul Felder summed it up perfectly, “He went after him like he owed him money and this was a street fight.” The fight ended with Rountree Jr. ahead 26-17 in striking.

Now 9-5 as a pro, Roberson has two wins by KO, four by submission, and three decisions. He’s only been knocked out once, but he’s been submitted in his other four losses, which is what has really been his Achilles' heel. All four of his submission losses have occurred in round one. Overall, eight of his 14 career fights have ended in submissions (4-4), including six of his nine UFC fights (2-4). Two of his other three UFC fights have ended in decision wins, with the most recent ending in his first KO loss. He had one other UFC fight up at 205 lb, which ended in a first round submission loss to Glover Teixeira. Roberson actually looked close to getting Glover out of there early, but as he often does, Glover was able to turn the tables and get a first round finish of his own with an arm-triangle choke. Roberson also competed at 205 lb on DWCS in 2017 and was able to land a quick R1 KO against Ryan Spann with elbows. You could certainly argue the stoppage was too quick. His only other career fight at 205 lb came just before that, and Roberson landed a first round submission, so he does have two career wins at 205 lb, but he’s 0-2 at the weight class in the UFC.

Overall, Roberson is sort of a tweener. He’s too big for 185 lb, where almost every time he tries to cut down he either misses weight or gets sick from the weight cut, but he may be too small for 205 lb. He would be the perfect candidate for a 195 lb division, but unfortunately for him that doesn’t exist. Roberson is a former Glory kickboxer and is now training with James Krause at Glory MMA & Fitness. He’s a good technical striker, but he never lands a ton of volume and hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2017.

Fight Prediction:

Nzechukwu will have a 4” height advantage and 9” reach advantage.

Both of these two struggle to let their hands go, but Nzechukwu at least does better as fights go on and averages nearly twice as many significant strikes landed as Roberson (5.13/min vs 2.89/min). Roberson is the more technical striker, but Nzechukwu is more powerful and durable, in addition to having a massive size advantage. While Roberson’s quickness may give Nzechukwu trouble early on, we could see Roberson crumple to the power of Nzechukwu in the later rounds. While Roberson is incredibly prone to getting submitted, Nzechukwu has given us no indication that he has any sort of submission game to capitalize on that. While it’s always possible he’s worked on that since his last fight, it would be a new addition. So his best path to victory will be to either land a late knockout or out-volume his way to a decision win. Roberson has yet to make it past the six minute mark in a UFC fight at 205 lb, but we’ll say Nzechukwu gets a knockout in the later rounds. However, it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see this end in a lower volume decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Nzechukwu R2 or R3 KO” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Nzechukwu has only topped 57 DraftKings points in one of his six UFC fights, which came in a high-volume second round knockout of Carlos Ulberg. He scored just 50 points in his lone decision win and just 57 in a low-volume third round knockout where he was controlled for the majority of the fight leading up to the finish. Roberson only absorbs an average of 2.56 SS/min so it will be tougher for Nzechukwu to put up a big striking total here, and it looks like he’ll need a finish in the first two rounds to be useful. Working in his favor, Roberson has been finished in all five of his career losses, including his last three fights, but he’s been far more prone to getting submitted, which is not something Nzechukwu has ever shown the ability to capitalize on. With that said, Roberson recently moved up to 205 lb and got knocked out following the switch, so perhaps his chin will prove not to be as durable at the higher weight class. That gives us some reason for optimism in Nzechukwu, but we’re still not overly excited about him. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Roberson scored 105 DraftKings points in his 2017 UFC debut when he submitted Darren Stewart in the first round, but has since failed to score above 81 points in his last eight fights, and scored a combined 13 points in his last three matches. In his two decision wins, he scored just 81 and 74 points, and he also has a third round submission victory that was good for just 69. So he appears reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to put up a usable score, and he’s never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a UFC fight. He also only has four takedowns in eight matches, and just one in his last six fights, and he’ll now face the 80% takedown defense of Nzechukwu. Roberson has two just career knockout wins and none since joining the UFC and averages just 2.89 SSL/min. Overall this looks like a tough spot for him to score well as he squares off against a much larger opponent. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

David Onama

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Onama had been scheduled to face Austin Lingo here, but Lingo dropped out at the beginning of the week. It was then reported that no replacement was found and Onama was off the card. However, then Garrett Armfield stepped up on Tuesday and Onama was added back onto the card. These two actually fought each other as amateurs back in 2018 for the KC Fighting Alliance Featherweight Championship, which Onama won in a unanimous 30-27 three-round decision. At that time, Onama was 23 years old and Armfield was just 21. Both guys showed their toughness in that fight, but Onama was clearly bigger, stronger, and faster, and was able to find a lot of success throwing knees out of the clinch.

Similar to Armfield, Onama made his UFC debut on short notice and up a weight class in an incredibly tough spot against Mason Jones in October 2021. While the fight didn’t go Onama’s way, he exceeded expectations and looked good overall. Onama actually finished ahead in significant strikes 90-87 and in total strikes 121-116 in that fight, however, Jones took Onama down 8 times on 14 attempts with nine minutes of control time to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Following what was his first career loss, Onama dropped back down to 145 lb to face Gabriel Benitez in February 2022.

In Onama’s last fight, Benitez missed weight by 2 lb as he has continued to struggle hitting the 145 lb mark. Both guys came out of the gates firing, but Benitez landed a punch to the eye of Onama that looked to have Onama in some real trouble. As Benitez continued to lay it on him, Onama was able to buy some time by looking for a takedown. While he wasn’t able to land it, it gave him just enough time to slow down the attack of Benitez and reset. After that, Benitez began to wilt under the pressure of Onama and in the final minute of the first round Onama was able to back Benitez up against the fence and violently face plant him with a flurry of strikes. The fast-paced four and a half minutes of fighting ended with Benitez ahead 46-36 in striking, but Onama getting the highlight reel KO.

Now 9-1 as a pro, Onama has six wins by KO and three by submission. The only time he’s ever been to the judges was in the decision loss in his debut. Six of his finishes occurred in the first round, two ended in round two, and one ended in round three. Two of his three submission wins came by guillotine and he’s primarily a striker, while just being an opportunistic submission threat.

Overall, Onama is a dangerous fighter who trains out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause. He has impressive hand speed and power, and when he senses a finish he has the ability to turn it up to a gear few fighters possess. He’s still just 28 years old and only turned pro in 2019, so he should still be improving between every fight and he has all of the physical abilities to be a problem in the division.

Garrett Armfield

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Armfield is two months removed from winning the Fighting Alliance Championship Bantamweight belt in a quick 33 second first round knockout. He’s won three straight and six of his last seven matches. Just prior to that he won a smothering decision on the mat, where he controlled his opponent for essentially the entire fight, after landing a first round submission in his third most recent fight.

His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it other than he has solid striking and looks especially dangerous in the first round of fights. That was his sixth first round finish among his eight career wins and the only time he’s landed a finish beyond the first round was 102 seconds into the second round of a 2020 fight.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Armfield has five wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted once and has one decision loss. That lone decision loss came against UFC fighter Ronnie Lawrence in a 2019 decision, in what was just Armfield’s third pro fight. His submission loss occurred in the second round of a 2021 fight that he was absolutely dominating and he nearly got a first round finish before having his back taken in round two and submitted with a rear-naked choke. Armfield’s coaches notably weren’t able to make it to that fight for what it’s worth. While Armfield originally faced Onama in 2018 as an amateur at 145 lb, Armfield has exclusively competed at 135 lb as a pro up until now. However, he will be making his short notice debut up at 145 lb where Onama typically fights. We expect Armfield to move back down to 135 lb for his next fight.

Overall, Armfield has looked good on the regional scene, showing both solid striking and decent wrestling. He wrestled in college at Missouri State University and trains out of Sanford MMA, so he should come into the UFC as a pretty well rounded fighter with a good team behind him. While this initial fight looks like an incredibly tough spot for him, he could find some success once he moves back down to 135 lb in the future.

Fight Prediction:

Onama will have a 5” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. He’s also three years older than the 25-year-old Armfield.

This sets up as a fun striking battle between two guys that are already familiar with one another from their amateur days. It will be interesting to see if either guy looks to wrestle, but for what it’s worth, no takedowns were attempted when they squared off in their amateur days. They’ve both been extremely durable and neither guy has ever been knocked out, but Onama is so dangerous that he’s always a threat to end a fight at a moment’s notice. Considering Onama has fought as high as 155 lb and Armfield typically fights at 135 lb, size should also play a factor. Simply surviving to see a decision would be an impressive achievement for Armfield, and we think there's a decent chance he can pull that off. With that said, we’re not seriously giving Armfield much of a chance to actually win and the real question is simply whether or not Onama can finish him. The oddsmakers like Onama to get the finish, and while it’s hard to argue with that take too much, we actually like him to win a convincing decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Onama Decision” at +250.

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DFS Implications:

Onama is coming off a late first round knockout victory against a tough opponent in Gabriel Benitez that scored 115 DraftKings points. He was amazingly 45% owned on DraftKings in that fight despite coming off a loss in his UFC debut, so obviously the field was huge on him even before he notched his first UFC win. Now that he’s coming off a slate-breaking performance and facing a UFC newcomer on short notice who took the fight up a weight class, expect Onama to once again be incredibly popular. He’s the most expensive fighter on the slate with a massive -800 ML, with the next closest fighter coming in at -350. He has the potential to put up a big striking total, but he’s yet to land a takedown in the UFC on three attempts, so he hasn’t shown any ability to boost his scoring with grappling. That will leave him reliant on landing a well timed knockout to end up in tournament winning lineups. With that said, he’s incredibly dangerous and all nine of his pro wins have come early, so obviously he has a really good chance to get a finish. These two did fight in their amateur days back in 2018 and Onama won a decision, so there is some reason to think Armfield could again go the distance with him, and Armfield has never been knocked out in his career. Onama’s high projected ownership puts a damper on his tournament appeal, but his safe floor and high ceiling make him a solid low-risk option. The odds imply Onama has an 85% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.

Armfield couldn’t have asked for a much tougher spot as he makes his debut up a weight class on just four day’s notice against a killer in Onama. Armfield looked good on the regional scene and we’ll be interested in playing him in DFS in the future once he drops back down to 135 lb, but it’s really hard to see him pulling off the upset here. Onama has proven he can hang with 155 pounders, while Armfield has fought his entire pro career down at 135 lb, and the size difference looks like too much to overcome in addition to all of the other factors. While it’s tempting to consider Armfield as a tournament leverage play off of the super popular Onama, we don’t see it paying off, but hey, you never know. The odds imply Armfield has a 15% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Tresean Gore

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Gore had originally been scheduled to face Josh Fremd here, but Fremd withdrew and his teammate Cody Brundage stepped in to replace him in mid May with plenty of time to prepare. Looking to bounce back from the first loss of his young career, Gore lost a decision to Bryan Battle in a fight that had originally been scheduled for August 2021 in The Ultimate Fighter Finale before Gore suffered a knee injury and was forced to withdraw. Gore only turned pro in 2018, but had won his first three fights, with first round finishes in his last two. He also won a pair of fights on TUF, but those go down as exhibition matches. After turning pro in 2018, Gore won a split-decision in his pro debut. He then had an opponent suffer a knee injury in the first round of his next fight, giving Gore the official win by R1 TKO, although it was unclear how the injury even happened. Gore's third pro fight occurred back in October 2020 and he won with a first round rear-naked choke, something he nearly locked up in his previous fight as well.

In his last fight, Gore started really slow, getting outlanded 50-15 in significant strikes in the first round. He came out more aggressive in round two, but continued to struggle with the size and length of Bryan Battle. Gore’s takedown defense held up well in the fight, as Battle was only able to land one takedown on eight attempts, while Gore landed two takedowns of his own on just three attempts. The fight ended with Battle ahead 112-57 in significant strikes and 119-86 in total strikes as he went on to win a decision.

Still just 3-1 as a pro, Gore has one win by KO, another by submission, and one decision victory. His only career loss came in his recent decision defeat in his UFC debut. Gore made his pro debut at 185 lb, but then fought his next two matches at 205 lb before dropping back down to 185 lb when he went on TUF, which is where it appears he’ll stay—although he’s already told everyone he plans on being the double champ, so apparently moving back up to 205 lb at some point is in his future plans.

Overall, Gore is a solid striker with heavy hands and kicks. He’s also got some level of grappling ability as we’ve seen him look to end multiple fights with rear-naked chokes. His takedown defense has also been impressive thus far, but he’s still so young in his career that we need to see more from him to truly have a sense for where he’s at.

Cody Brundage

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Coming off his first UFC win, Brundage looked to be in danger of getting finished himself before locking in a guillotine choke to steal the victory. Prior to that win, Brundage made his short notice UFC debut against another debuting wrestler in Nick Maximov and lost a decision, which is just the second decision he’s been to in his career. A former college wrestler, Brundage is married to former UFC fighter Amanda Bobby Brundage who went 2-4 with the organization before being released. Brundage trains at elevation out of Factory X, which was noticeable in his cardio in the third round of his debut as he continued to push late in the fight despite taking that fight on just a few days’ notice.

In his last match, Brundage shot for an early takedown, which Dalcha Lungiambula initially tried to defend with an unsuccessful guillotine. After momentarily getting taken down, Lungiambula escaped and began landing punches while sprawling. Brundage continued to look for a takedown, while Lungiambula stuffed him and continued to land heavy punches. Brundage looked to be in trouble as the two separated and Lungiambula began teeing off. It looked like Lungiambula was just a few punches away from getting the fight stopped when he idiotically shot for a takedown instead of finishing things on the feet and Brundage locked in a guillotine to force a tap. Brundage had no business winning the fight and Lungiambula finished ahead 29-4 in significant strikes and 50-4 in total strikes.

Now 7-2 as a pro, Brundage has three wins by KO, three by submission, and one decision. The only time he’s been finished came in a R1 KO on DWCS in 2020 against William Knight. That fight took place at 205 lb and Brundage has fought anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb throughout his career. He landed KO/TKO wins in his first three pro fights, but his last three wins have all come by submission.

Overall, Brundage seems like a powerful wrestler, who’s still pretty raw on the feet and sometimes gets caught admiring his own handiwork after he lands a shot. He doesn’t appear to have the highest fight IQ, but he’s still relatively early in his career with just nine pro fights to his name. He’s alternated wins and losses over his last five fights, with four of his last five matches ending early, including three in the first round. He hasn’t looked good absorbing damage and appears fortunate to only have one KO loss on his record.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’0” but Gore will have a 3” reach advantage.

Both of these two are young in their careers and have shown they still have a ways to go if they want to be competitive in the UFC. Gore is the more dangerous striker, while Brundage relies more on his wrestling. Gore’s takedown defense has been pretty solid, so it will be interesting to see how Brundage does trying to get him down. Brundage has also not responded well to taking damage and if Gore can hurt him early he should be able to put him away. In addition to being a powerful striker, Gore has also consistently looked for submissions, and he could be a sneaky candidate to land one here as Brundage should constantly be looking to turn this into a wrestling match. Whether it comes by knockout or submission, we like Gore’s chances to bounce back from his first career loss with a finish in the first two rounds here.

Our favorite bet here is “Gore ITD” at +220.

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DFS Implications:

Gore is a calculated striker who’s unlikely to put up a huge striking total, but has solid finishing ability. He’s stepping into his second UFC fight, and we expect him to look improved from his recent decision loss. Brundage has not been overly impressive and nearly got finished in the first round of his last fight before landing a hail mary guillotine to steal the victory. Gore isn’t helpless on the mat and will often look to end fights with chokes in grappling exchanges, so he has multiple ways to get a finish here. However, we don’t see him scoring well in a decision and he totaled just 41 DraftKings points in his recent decision loss. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in the first round.

Brundage’s wrestling heavy fighting style makes him a more appealing DraftKing play as he has the potential to rack up a large amount of control time. He showed his strength when he was able to quickly take UFC fighter William Knight to the mat on DWCS in 2020, but Knight was able to return to his feet and land a R1 KO shortly after. If this fight makes it to the back half, Brundage should benefit from the fact that he trains at altitude out of Factory X in Colorado. With six of his seven career wins coming early, Brundage also has finishing upside, and he scored 98 DraftKings points in his recent submission victory. There are multiple ways for Brundage to score well here, and at his cheaper price tag it will be easier for him to find his way into winning lineups if he pulls off the upset. With that said, this doesn’t look like a great matchup for him as Gore has shown a solid takedown defense and has yet to be finished in his very short career. The odds imply Brundage has a 43% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Antonina Shevchenko

8th UFC Fight (3-4)

Looking to bounce back from her second straight early loss, Shevchenko was finished in the second round in each of those. She’s just 2-4 in her last six fights and has lost three of her last four matches. She’s been facing tough competition, with her last three losses coming against Casey O'Neill, Andrea Lee, and Katlyn Chookagian. All three of those opponents were able to control and/or finish Shevchenko on the mat.

In her last fight, Shevchenko took on a really tough Casey O'Neill, who’s now 9-0. O'Neill had some initial struggles controlling Antonina Shevchenko on the mat, and consequently ended up on her back. However, after returning to her feet she was able to take Shevchenko down midway through the round and control her for the next two minutes before Shevchenko was able to return to her feet with less than a minute remaining in the round. O'Neill got the fight back to the mat 90 seconds into round two, and that time never relinquished the position as she methodically worked her way to full mount, beating her up on the mat until the fight was eventually stopped with 13 seconds remaining in the round. Some refs may have let the round finish, but Shevchenko really wasn’t intelligently defending herself by the end as her face was battered and swollen. O'Neill finished ahead in significant strikes just 52-40, but led in total strikes 128-58. She also landed three of her eight takedown attempts and had nearly six minutes of control time.

Now 9-4 as a pro, Shevchenko has three wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. Both of her early losses came in her last two matches, with a late second round ground and pound TKO and a late second round triangle armbar. Her other two losses both ended in decisions. Her only submission win came in a 2019 second round rear-naked choke. All three of her TKO wins also occurred in the second round and every single fight of her career has strangely either ended in a second round finish (4-2) or a decision (5-2). Shevchenko originally went pro in 2002 and fought three times over the next three years. Then she stepped away from MMA for 12 years until 2017 when she eventually returned. During her time away she became a Muay Thai and K1 world champion. She started her career at 135 lb, but moved down to 125 lb when she went on DWCS in 2018 and that’s where she’s stayed.

Overall, Shevchenko is a pure Muay Thai striker, and has really struggled off her back. She has shown the ability to do damage from top position on the ground, but isn’t much of a grappling threat and she only has one takedown in her last six fights. She’s now 37 years old and on a two fight losing streak, so she could really use a win here.

Cortney Casey

15th UFC Fight (6-8)

Coming off a decision win over a one-dimensional armbar specialist in Liana Jojua, Casey hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2016 and has gone just 4-6 in her last 10 matches. In her second most recent fight, she lost a low-volume split-decision to J.J. Aldrich, where Casey was taken down by Aldrich four times on seven attempts. Just before that, Casey suffered a third round submission loss to Gillian Robertson in June 2020, which is the only time Casey has been finished in her last 17 fights. The only other early loss of her career came in her second pro match back in 2013, also by submission.

In her last fight, Casey cruised to a decision win as she easily outstruck Liana Jojua on the feet. That came as no surprise as Jojua has only ever really shown the ability to win fights with armbars. Casey outlanded her 89-34 in significant strikes and 124-57 in total strikes. Jojua was able to land two takedowns on three attempts, but she couldn’t do anything with them.

Now 10-9 as a pro, Casey has three wins by KO, four by submission, and three decisions. She’s never been knocked out, but she’s been submitted twice in the final minute of fights, with her other seven losses all going the distance. Eight of her last 10 fights have ended with the judges (3-5), with the other two ending in submissions (1-1). Her last KO/TKO win was all the way back in 2016. This will be Casey’s 5th UFC fight in the 125 lb division (2-2), after she moved up from 115 lb following her 2019 loss to Cynthia Calvillo. Casey did fight her first two pro matches at 125 lb (1-1) prior to joining the UFC, before dropping down to 115 lb in 2014. While Casey only has six total pro fights at 125 lb (3-3), four of those matches notably ended in submissions (2-2).

Overall, Casey is primarily a striker, but does have several submission wins on her record, with the last two of those ending in armbars. However, she’s only attempted one failed takedown in her last five fights, and is rarely looking to take fights to the ground.

Fight Prediction:

Shevchenko will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach. Casey is two years younger than the 37-year-old Shevchenko.

This sets up as a striking battle between two fighters who rarely land any takedowns. Shevchenko should have the advantage as long as Casey doesn’t surprise us and put her on her back, but Casey notably only has one takedown in her last 11 fights and none in her last five. She also has just a 27% career takedown accuracy. We like Shevchenko to outland her way to a decision win, with a very slight chance she can find a second round finish.

Our favorite bet here is “Shevchenko Decision” at +125.

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DFS Implications:

Shevchenko has put up one usable DFS score in seven UFC fights, which came in a rare ground and pound beat down where she scored 115 points in a second round finish. Her earlier second round win ended in a submission and still scored just 84 points, and she totaled just 79 points in her lone UFC decision victory. She doesn’t land enough volume to score well without a finish in the first two rounds as she averages just 3.89 SSL/min. It’s also rare to see her land a takedown and at her expensive price tag even with a finish there are lots of ways she gets left out of tournament winning lineups. The only thing she really has going for her in tournaments is her low ownership. The odds imply she has a 61% chance to win this fight, a 23% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance that it comes in the first round.

Casey has landed three first round finishes in the UFC, with a pair of submissions and another by KO, so she has shown the ability to put up big scores, as she averaged 105 DraftKings points in those three wins. Just keep in mind, two of those were back in 2016 when she was fighting down at 115 lb. Her only early win at 125 lb, where she’s fighting now, was against a terrible Mara Borella, who lost her last four UFC fights with three of those coming early. Casey has shown a decent floor in her three decision wins, averaging 81 DraftKings points, as she lands a decent amount of striking volume. At her cheaper price tag there’s certainly a chance she could sneak into winning lineups even with a decision win if we only see a few dogs on the slate win. The odds imply she has a 39% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Ricky Turcios

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

After losing a decision on DWCS in 2017 to Boston Salmon, who went on to get knocked out in the first round of both of his UFC fights before being cut, Turcios returned to the regional scene where he went 2-1 before going on The Ultimate Fighter in 2021. He relied on his pace and output to make it to the TUF finals, where he continued to outwork his way to a split-decision victory in the finals.

In that recent split-decision win in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter, Turcios went up against a relentless grappler in Brady Hiestand. Turcios got taken down early in the first round, but stayed active off his back while Hiestand was more focussed on control. Turcios was able to return to his feet in the back half of the round and the two stood and traded to close out the first five minutes. We continued to see nonstop scrambles on the mat and the feet for the remainder of the fight, with Turcios finishing ahead 100-66 in significant strikes and 201-82 in total strikes, while he was also able to drop Hiestand in the third round. Hiestand landed 6 of his 11 takedown attempts with 7:40 of control time, while Turcios landed two takedowns of his own on four attempts with 2:32 of control time. Despite Turcios finishing so far ahead in striking, the judges were split on who won, but Turcios got his hand raised. Following the win, Turcios was awarded his BJJ black belt and he’s also a black belt in Taekwondo.

Now 11-2 as a pro, Turcios has three wins by KO, one by submission, and seven decisions. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2018 R1 TKO against Mana Martinez, who’s now 1-1 in the UFC. The only other loss of his career was the decision on DWCS to Boston Salmon in 2017. Turcios started his career 8-0 prior to that loss. Three of his four career finishes have come in the later rounds and he’s only landed one KO/TKO finish since 2016. Eleven of his 13 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with the two exceptions being a pair of R1 KOs (1-1). Other than one trip up to 145 lb in 2020, Turcios has spent his entire career at 135 lb.

Overall, Turcios weaponizes his cardio as he pushes a wild pace, with the goal of outworking his opponents. He’ll throw up lots of loose submissions, but rarely locks anything in. His striking style is similar to his grappling, where he’s constantly working, but not landing many shots with fight-ending intentions. He fights like he’s in outer space, throwing strikes from all angles, regardless of the position he’s in, whether it’s from his back, on the feet, upside down, or whatever other spot you can put him in. Now he’ll face an opponent who’s just the opposite and rarely lands much striking volume. In fact, Turcios landed more significant strikes in the third round of his last fight than Zahabi has landed in any of his four UFC matches.

Aiemann Zahabi

5th UFC Fight (2-2)

Coming off his first early win since 2016, when he won due to an opponent’s knee injury, Zahabi snapped a two fight losing streak with a first round KO win over Drako Rodriguez. That’s the only time Zahabi has fought since 2019, and his only win since 2017. After losing his previous two matches, he was fighting for his job there in the final fight of his contract. Prior to the win, he lost a 2019 decision to Vince Morales after getting knocked out with a spinning back elbow in the third round of a 2017 fight against Ricardo Ramos. Zahabi’s only other UFC win came in a 2017 decision in his debut, where he actually finished behind in significant strikes and in takedowns, but was able to land a knockdown in the second round.

In that last fight, Zahabi came out patiently as he typically does, only landing nine significant strikes in just over three minutes time (2.92 SSL/min), before knocking Rodriguez out with a big right hand. For what it’s worth, Rodriguez has now lost three straight and is no longer in the UFC.

Still just 8-2 as a pro, Zahabi has fought just 10 times in the last 10 years since making his 2012 pro debut. He has five wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision. He’s been knocked out once and has one decision loss. Seven of his eight finishes came early in his career (2016 and prior) against a much lower level of competition, so his record should be taken with a grain of salt.

Overall, Zahabi is a low-volume striker who looks for the perfect counter strike opposed to being the aggressor in fights. He’s only landed one takedown on six attempts in his four UFC fights, and five of those attempts came in one match against Vince Morales. So despite being a BJJ black belt, he doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling either. He’s already 34 years old and only seems half interested in being a professional fighter, but his older brother is a well known trainer, which seems to keep Zahabi somewhat invested in the sport. Outside of his recent finish, we’ve never been impressed by Zahabi.

Fight Prediction:

Turcios will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, in addition to being five years younger than the 34-year-old Zahabi.

These two fighters couldn’t be any more different in terms of their approach to fighting, as Turcios is constantly pushing the pace and letting his hands go, while Zahabi sits back and waits for the perfect opportunity to present itself. That will make it really difficult for Zahabi to win a decision, and he appears reliant on landing a finish to pull off the upset. Turcios has only been finished once in his career, but has looked fairly hittable, so it’s definitely not impossible that Zahabi can knock him out, but we like Turcios to outland his way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “Turcios Decision” at +140.

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DFS Implications:

Turcios proved in his UFC debut that he has the ability to put up a huge score without a finish as he dropped 120 DraftKings points in a high-volume decision win. In fairness, he completely filled up the stat sheet, landing a 100 significant strikes, a knockdown, two takedowns, a reversal, 201 total strikes and a few minutes of control time. It’s unreasonable to expect that level of production every time he steps inside the Octagon, but the guy never stops pushing the pace, which is great for the overall DFS scoring production in his fights. Working against him, Zahabi is the exact opposite and is constantly looking to slow fights down. It will be interesting to see which style prevails, but it sets up as a pace down spot for Turcios and a pace up matchup for Zahabi. We expect the field to chase Turcios’ recent scoring explosion, especially considering it’s the only fight on his DFS stat sheet. So while we love the way Turcios fights when it comes to DFS scoring in general, his matchup and ownership have us a little lower on him in tournaments. It’s certainly still possible he forces Zahabi into a firefight and puts up another huge striking total and mixes in some grappling, but if he was ever going to be in a lower volume fight, this would be the one. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Zahabi is coming off a career best scoring performance, where he put up 104 DraftKings points in a first round knockout of Drako Rdoriguez after failing to score more than 58 points in his first three UFC fights. He’s been a low-volume striker (2.82 SSL/min), who has relied on finishes to score well and only has one of those since 2016. He’s also only landed one takedown in his four UFC fights, so he’s not a guy that will boost his scoring with grappling. Working in his favor, this is a pace-up matchup against an opponent who never stops throwing strikes and has also looked pretty hittable. Turcios also hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat, so Zahabi should have the opportunity to let his hands go without putting himself at great risk. With that said, this guy has never once shown a willingness to take part in a brawl, so it’s hard to expect him to change now. While the opportunity for Zahabi to set a career high in significant strikes is staring him in the face, we don’t trust him to return value without a finish. And on that note, Turcios has only been finished once in his career. Despite the favorable matchup, we’re treating Zahabi as a KO bust play even at his cheaper price tag. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Jamie Mullarkey

6th UFC Fight (2-3)

Coming off his first KO loss since 2016, Mullarkey got finished by a surging Jalin Turner early in the second round. Prior to that, Mullarkey had landed two knockouts of his own, with a second round finish of Devonte Smith and a 46 second R1 KO of Khama Worthy. Prior to the pair of early wins, Mullarkey lost decisions to Brad Riddell and Fares Ziam in his first two UFC fights, but he arguably should have gotten the nod against Ziam.

In his last fight, Mullarkey and Turner exchanged strikes in an action-packed first round, with Turner the one doing more damage. Late in the round Mullarkey was able to take Turner down, but he ran out of time on the mat as the round ended and wasn’t able to really do anything in the time he did have. Early in round two Turner was able to crumple Mullarkey along the fence and finish him with a flurry of punches. The fight ended with Turner ahead 52-35 in significant strikes and 53-45 in total strikes. Both fighters landed a takedown, Turner on one attempt and Mullarkey on three. That knockout occurred just four months ago, but Mullarkey is wasting no time getting back inside the Octagon.

Now 14-5 as a pro, Mullarkey has 10 wins by KO, three by submission, and one decision. He’s been knocked out three times and has two decision losses. Two of his knockout defeats came against Alexander Volkanovski and Jalin Turner, so it’s hard to fault him too much for those. His last six wins have all come by KO and his last 12 victories have all ended early. He’s only been to two decisions in his last 17 fights. Mullarkey notably fought at 145 lb until 2018, when he moved up to the 155 lb division two years after suffering his first two career KO losses and he’s only been finished once at 155 lb. While he’s a BJJ black belt, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2015.

Overall, Mullarkey had looked solid and extremely durable leading up to his recent KO loss. He’s still just 27 years old, so there’s no reason to think his recent defeat is anything more than a minor setback. He’s well rounded, with the ability to grapple and strike, but he’s relied mostly on knocking opponents out. His previous four career losses have come in pairs, but he’ll look to change that trend here.

Michael Johnson

26th UFC Fight (12-13)

Notching his first win since 2018 and first finish since 2016, Johnson snapped a four fight skid with a second round knockout over a struggling Alan Patrick. Prior to that, Johnson had lost a decision to Clay Guida, was submitted by Thiago Moises, lost a decision to Steven Ray, and was knocked out by Josh Emmett. While he won a pair of 2018 decisions over Artem Lobov and Andre Fili, he lost three more fights just before that, with a second round submission loss to Darren Elkins, a second round KO loss against Justin Gaethje, and a third round submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov.

In his last fight, we saw Johnson and Patrick trade strikes in a lower volume fight with both guys connecting at times but Johnson getting the better end of things. Midway through the second round Johnson dropped Patrick with a combination of punches and left him out cold on the mat. The fight ended with Johnson ahead 30-22 in significant strikes and 40-30 in total strikes. Johnson landed a takedown for the first time since 2018, while stuffing all five of Patrick’s attempts.

Now 20-17 as a pro, Johnson has nine wins by KO, two by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted nine times, and has six decision losses. His last 10 fights have all made it out of the first round, with six seeing round three, and four going the distance. While 11 of his 20 career wins have come early, he only has two finishes since 2013. Johnson has spent most of his career at 155 lb, but moved down to 145 lb in 2018, where he went 2-2 before moving back up to 155 lb in 2019, where he lost his next three fights leading up to his most recent win.

Overall, Johnson relies almost entirely on his striking despite the fact that he wrestled in college. He’s only landed 10 takedowns in 25 UFC fights and one in his last five. He’s been vulnerable to having his rangy limbs attacked by submissions through leg locks and kimuras. Johnson has had such a bizarre career that it’s hard to know what to expect out of him. He finds ways to lose fights he’s supposed to win and win fights he’s supposed to lose.

Fight Prediction:

Mullarkey will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while he’s also nine years younger than the 36-year-old Johnson.

While Johnson was finally able to get a win in his last fight, that came against a washed up opponent who hasn’t won a fight since 2018. Now he’ll face a much tougher test in Mullarkey, and even Patrick was able to land some good shots on Johnson. We like Mullarkey to finish Johnson in the first two rounds. While Johnson has been prone to getting submitted and Mullarkey is a BJJ black belt, we still think it’s more likely that Mullarkey will look to finish this with a knockout. With that said, there’s always a chance he’s still somewhat shell shocked following his recent KO loss and grapples more than he has in his past few fights. Regardless, we like Mullarkey’s chances of landing a finish in the first 10 minutes.

Our favorite bet here is “Mullarkey R2 Win” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Mullarkey has been a boom or bust fantasy commodity, with scores of 109 and 128 in his two UFC wins, which both ended in knockouts, but totals of just 24, 47, and 41 in his three losses. He’s only been to three decisions in his career, and the only one of those he won was in his second pro fight back in 2014. He arguably should have won the decision against Ziam, but still would have scored just 77 points if he had. So at his high price tag, it looks like he needs a finish to be useful, although there’s a slight chance he could grapple more in this matchup than he has recently and he is notably a BJJ black belt. He’ll be a good tournament leverage play off of the more popular expensive options on the slate if he can land a finish. The odds imply Mullarkey has a 67% chance to win, a 46% chance to get a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.

Johnson is coming off a solid performance where he scored 103 DraftKings points in a second round knockout. However, that’s the first time he’s scored more than 76 points in a fight since 2016 and it came against another struggling/aging opponent. He’ll face a much tougher test here and it’s hard to have much confidence in him. His name and recent success should bump up his ownership some, which further lowers our interest in playing him. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume and only has one takedown in his last five fights and rarely puts up a usable score. The odds imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Cynthia Calvillo

12th UFC Fight (6-4-1)

After moving up to 125 lb in 2020 following a 4.5 lb weight miss in her last fight at 115 lb, Calvillo won a five-round decision over Jessica Eye. However, she’s since dropped three straight fights, each ending worse than the last. The downfall began with a decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian, and was then followed by a R1 TKO loss to Jessica Andrade. Both of those losses are pretty understandable and she was clearly fighting over her head. However, she then took on Andrea Lee in her last fight and simply quit after the second round, which is tougher to accept.

In that recent defeat, Lee pulled ahead early in striking and never allowed Calvillo to get going with her grappling. While Calvillo did land one takedown on three attempts in the fight, she only finished with 39 total seconds of control time. Calvillo’s striking looked terrible and her striking defense looked even worse. The fight was not at all competitive and Lee finished ahead 84-47 in significant strikes—it seemed wider watching it. Just as the third round was about to begin, Calvillo’s corner announced she would not be continuing in the match.

Now 9-4-1 as a pro, Calvillo has two wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. Her only two early losses occurred in her recent two TKOs, and she’s never been submitted. Her other two losses both went the distance. Calvillo fought her first seven UFC fights at 115 lb, before moving up to 125 lb in 2020 following a draw against Marina Rodriguez where she missed weight by 4.5 lb. She did fight her first pro bout at 125 lb and her second at 120 lb Catchweight, but then dropped down to 115 lb one fight before she joined the UFC. Calvillo hasn't finished an opponent since 2018, when she submitted Poliana Botelho.

Overall, Calvillo relies on her grappling to win fights, but has landed just two takedowns on seven attempts in her last three bouts. She’s yet to prove she can hang in the 125 lb division, and if she doesn’t turn things around soon she may be looking for a new job. However, working in her favor, she’ll now face an opponent moving up from 115 lb.

Nina Nunes

9th UFC Fight (4-4)

Nunes will be making her 125 lb UFC debut against another former 115 pounder, which should make the transition a little easier. She had fought at 125 lb prior to dropping down to 115 lb in her UFC debut, so the weight class isn’t completely foreign to her. She had talked about making the move leading up to her last fast after having a baby, but gave 115 lb one more shot. That didn’t end well as she got submitted by Mackenzie Dern late in the first round, which likely made the decision easier to move up. After winning four straight fights in 2017 and 2018, Nunes lost a decision in June 2019 to the #2 ranked Strawweight in Tatiana Suarez and has only fought once since as she understandably shifted her focus to expanding her family.

In her last fight, Dern was able to get Nunes down without too much trouble early in the first round on just two attempts, despite Dern entering with a 5% takedown accuracy and Nunes entering with a 77% takedown defense. Dern then had nearly four minutes to advance her position and hunt for a submission and she patiently used nearly all of it before tactfully finishing the fight with an armbar just seconds before the round ended. Nunes never got anything going in the fight, and Dern finished ahead in significant strikes 12-4 and in total strikes 31-5.

Now 10-7 as a pro, Nunes has four wins by KO, two by submission, and four decisions. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and has five decision losses. Prior to her recent submission loss, she had fought to four straight decisions and hadn’t been finished since her fourth pro fight back in 2011.

Overall, Nunes is a 3rd degree black belt in Taekwondo, but just a BJJ purple belt. She much prefers to fight on her feet, but does have a couple of submission wins on her record. While she doesn’t have real knockout power, she has landed 92 or more significant strikes in three of her eight UFC fights, including 143 landed on Angela Hill in a 2017 decision win. While Nunes has a 76% takedown defense, she’s been taken down at least once in each of her last four fights, and was taken down four times and controlled for over eight minutes in her second most recent fight. Just keep in mind that was against the #2 ranked Strawweight in Tatiana Suarez who has a 62% career takedown accuracy.

Fight Prediction:

Nunes will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 64” reach. Calvillo is two years younger than the 36-year-old Nunes.

This is a matchup between two fighters both struggling to get a win. Nunes has only lost two fights in a row, but her last win was all the way back in 2018 and she’s now 36 years old. Calvillo has been much more active, but has lost three straight. Calvillo has really struggled to get her grappling going since moving up to 125 lb, but she’s also been facing a series of tough opponents. This is a step down in competition for both ladies, so it will be interesting to see how they each look. Calvillo should be trying to get the fight to the ground, and her grappling success will likely determine who wins. Neither one of these two have impressed us lately and we could see this one going either way, but if Nunes can keep the fight standing we like her to outland her way to a decision win. If Calvillo can find success with her grappling then she has a chance to land a submission or ride out a decision on the mat. We’ll say Nunes wins a decision, but it’s far from a comfortable pick.

Our favorite bet here is “Nunes Decision” at +240.

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DFS Implications:

Calvillo has been a R1 submission or bust play for DFS in three round fights thus far in her career, but she at least has the potential to put on a grappling heavy performance that could still score decently in a decision. Nunes is coming up from 115 lb and has only fought once since 2019, which ended in a first round submission, so there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding her current form. While Calvillo has looked terrible in her last three fights, she has been facing really tough opponents, so perhaps this step down in competition is exactly what she needs to get back on track. She looks like a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel due to her grappling. The odds imply Calvillo has a 57% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Nunes’ first seven UFC fights all made it to the third round with six going the distance. The one finish over that stretch was a 2017 third round submission win that scored a career best 93 DraftKings. Now she’s coming off her first early loss in the UFC, in a first round submission to Mackenzie Dern. Nunes averaged 71 DraftKings points in her three decision victories, but with only two takedowns landed in her career and none in her last five fights, she relies entirely on striking to score well. That requires her to put up massive striking totals to be useful and now she’ll be facing an opponent who’s looking to grappling. Nunes likely needs a finish to end up in tournament winning lineups, but if we only see 2-3 total dogs on the slate win then there’s a chance she can sneak into winning tournament lineups even in a decision. The odds imply she has a 43% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Jared Vanderaa

6th UFC Fight (1-4)

Vanderaa continues to accept fights on short notice and struggle against grapplers. He’s lost three straight and is fresh off a first round submission loss to a 75-year-old Alexey Oleynik. Prior to that, Vanderaa lost a close split decision to the king of close split decisions in Andrei Arlovski. He also has a pair of R2 ground and pound TKO losses to Moldovan Heavyweight grapplers in Sergey Spivak and Alexander Romanov. Vanderaa must have slept with his manager's wife or ran over Dana White’s dog, because they have gone out of their way to find him the worst possible matchups, and oftentimes on very short notice. While he’s gone 0-3 against grapplers in the UFC, he’s 2-1 against strikers if we include his DWCS fight, and arguably should be 3-0.

In his last fight, Vanderaa continued to stake out the UFC retirement home as he took on his second straight opponent who turned pro in the 90’s as he faced off against Alexey Oleynik. After a two minute feeling out process, Oleynik pulled guard to try and get the fight to the mat. While Vanderaa initially defended, he lacked the urgency to escape the position and eventually found himself on the mat. He momentarily had Oleynik’s back and then came close to locking up a triangle, but Oleynik escaped and unsurprisingly took Vanderaa’s back. Oleynik then worked his way to a scarf hold submission and quickly forced a tap.

Now 12-8 as a pro, Vanderaa has seven wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice (both by R2 ground and pound), submitted three times, and has three decision losses. While he’s technically a BJJ black belt and has landed three submissions in his career, those all came in his first seven pro fights and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017. Eleven of his last 13 fights have made it to round two, with six seeing round three, and five going the distance.

Overall, Vanderaa is a low-level Heavyweight who has struggled to find wins in the UFC, but has been put in some of the worst possible spots. When has been placed in good matchups (i.e. Tafe and Hunsucker), he’s done well, and now he’ll face another rare favorable matchup. He’s consistently been willing to fight on short notice, which the UFC loves, and this fight was put together just two weeks out. Vanderaa did say he had been preparing for a fight for the last six weeks or so, which is encouraging. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he’s shown the ability to put up a big striking total when he’s not working off his back, as he landed 121 significant strikes against Justin Tafa. Now he’ll go against Chase Sherman, who averages the second highest number of significant strikes absorbed on the slate at 6.32/min. While Vanderaa hasn’t attempted a takedown in his five UFC fights, he did take a terrible Harry Hunsucker down in the first round of his DWCS match and finished him on the mat. Sitting on a 1-4 UFC record, Vanderaa has to be approaching every UFC fight like it could be his last.

Chase Sherman

13th UFC Fight (3-9)

Weaseling his way back into the UFC after getting cut for the SECOND time by the organization, the UFC agreed to take Sherman back if he stepped into a matchup that no one else wanted on short notice against Alexander Romanov. To no one’s surprise, Sherman lost his fourth straight fight and was submitted for the second straight time in the first round. Far more surprising, Sherman got submitted by Jake Collier just before that, who hadn’t submitted anybody since 2014 when he was fighting at Middleweight. Prior to suffering the pair of submission losses, Sherman dropped two straight decisions to Parker Porter and Andrei Arlovski. Sherman went 2-5 in the UFC from 2016 to 2018 and was cut following his third straight loss. He then landed three straight first round knockouts outside of the UFC and was brought back in 2020. He defeated an undersized Ike Villanueva in his return, but then lost three in a row before being cut again. However, he was then immediately resigned on the condition that he fight Romanov on short notice.

Sherman was originally scheduled to face Romanov on a few day’s notice back in April, but the fight was scratched after the card had already started as Sherman was granted a seven day stay of execution to get his affairs in order, before fulfilling his end of the deal a week later. In that fight, Sherman entered as a +1100 underdog and the only debate leading up to the fight was how long it would take Romanov to finish him. Sherman might as well have been a tackling dummy, as he failed to make a dent on the stat sheet, with zero attempted strikes thrown. He got tossed around the Octagon for the opening minute before getting mounted, smashed, and submitted with a keylock.

Now 15-10 as a pro, Sherman has 14 wins by KO and one by decision (2017). He’s been knocked out four times, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Sixteen of his 25 fights have ended in the first round (12-4), three ended in round two (2-1), one ended in round three (0-1), and five have gone the distance. While Sherman was able to find some success outside of the UFC in 2018 and 2019, he’s gone 1-7 in his last eight UFC fights, with his only win coming against a terrible Light Heavyweight fighting up a weight class in his debut in Ike Villanueva. Following the win over Villanueva, Sherman was suspended for nine months when he tested positive for an illegal estrogen blocker.

Overall, Sherman is a one-dimensional striker and a non-UFC level talent. He fades after the first round and has zero career wins against legitimate competition. He’s looked terrible on the mat and is basically a stand-in double for Heavyweight fights at this point. The only success he’s found in his career is knocking out super low level opponents, with 12 of his 14 KO wins coming outside of the UFC. He’s only finished two of his 12 UFC opponents and only one actual Heavyweight, which was Rashad Coulter back in 2017. Coulter went 1-3 in the UFC with all three losses ending in knockouts.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’4” but Vanderaa will have a 2” reach advantage.

While Vanderaa has gotten embarrassed on the mat by grapplers in three of his four UFC losses, he’ll actually have the grappling advantage in this fight so it will be interesting to see if he looks for his first UFC takedown. He’s also fully capable of defeating Sherman in a pure striking battle, but he appears more likely to get a finish on the mat than the feet. If the fight remains standing, he should play out as a high-volume Heavyweight slopfest. Sherman is just 3-6 in his career in fights that have made it out of round one, while Vanderaa is 6-7. While Sherman fades hard late in fights, Vanderaa has fought to three five-round decisions in the past, and should be the fresher fighter in the later rounds, if this fight makes it that far. While Sherman looks like a R1 KO or bust fighter, Vanderaa has the ability to win this fight in multiple ways, and we expect him to come out victorious. If the fight remains standing, we like Vanderaa to outland his way to a decision win, but if he can get it to the ground with time to work he should be able to find a finish. With that said, we’ll say he wins a high-volume decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Vanderaa Decision” at +300.

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DFS Implications:

While 10 of Vanderaa’s 12 career wins have come early, his only UFC victory ended in a decision where he scored just 83 DraftKings points even in a high-volume brawl. He’s failed to top 39 points in any of his four losses and also has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC. He was mauled and finished on the mat in three of those losses, so his optics have also been pretty piss poor. All of those factors should contribute to him flying largely under the radar here as he steps into the most favorable matchup he’s had in the UFC. Sherman has lost four straight, has been submitted in the first round in his last two fights, and has gone just 1-7 in his last eight UFC fights. Vanderaa has never been knocked out on the feet, and Sherman fades late in fights. While Vanderaa hasn’t looked like much of a knockout threat, if he can get Sherman down there’s a good chance he can finish him on the mat. If it stays standing he should have a solid floor based on striking volume alone, but is still unlikely to end up in tournament winning lineups without a finish. Considering Vanderaa has yet to even attempt a takedown in five UFC fights and likely has grappling PTSD, we certainly can’t rely on him taking the fight to the ground. However, it’s also such an obvious way to get an easy finish that there’s still a decent chance we see it happen. The odds imply Vanderaa has a 64% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.

Sherman is a low-level KO or bust Heavyweight. He’s lost seven of his last eight UFC fights, with the one win coming against a terrible Light Heavyweight in Ike Villanueva who was fighting up a weight class in his UFC debut. Since then, Sherman has lost four straight and was cut by the UFC only to get brought back because they couldn’t find anyone else willing to fight Romanov on short notice. Now Sherman gets to cash a few more paychecks before the UFC inevitably cuts him for the third time once his current deal runs out. Sherman offers nothing on the ground and also has a very limited gas tank. While he faces a fellow low-level Heavyweight in this matchup, Vanderaa has actually been very durable on the feet and this looks like a tough spot for Sherman to land a finish. Sherman has just a single decision win in his career, which was back in 2017 and scored 75 DraftKings points. We do expect this to be a high-volume brawl as long as it remains standing, so if Sherman somehow gets his hand raised, he has a very slight chance to serve a value play if we don’t see many other underdogs win on the slate. We don’t see that happening, but it’s not impossible. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it occurs in the first round.

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Fight #3

Said Nurmagomedov

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

Nurmagomedov has landed two straight finishes in under a minute, and his last three wins have all come in round one. His only loss in his last 10 fights came in a 2019 decision against Raoni Barcelos and all 17 of his pro fights have either ended in the first round (8-0) or gone the distance (7-2). He hasn’t been very active, with just one fight in 2020 and none in 2021. However, this will be his second fight this year, so maybe that’s changing.

His last fight ended so quickly that it’s tough to take too much away from it, but Nurmagomedov landed several heavy shots on Cody Stamann before wrapping up a guillotine choke as Stamann shot for his first takedown attempt. It was essentially a flawless performance and Stamann only landed a single strike, while Nurmagomedov landed seven before forcing a tap 47 seconds in. That was just the second time Stamann has been finished in his career and he had previously been extremely durable.

Now 15-2 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has four wins by R1 KO, four by R1 submission, and seven decisions. He’s never been finished and both of his losses have gone the distance. Nurmagomedov started his career at 145 lb before dropping down to 135 lb in his fourth pro fight. He tried moving all the way down to 125 lb in his UFC debut, but after winning a split decision he moved back up to 135 lb, where he’s remained since.

While Said shares the Nurmagomedov name he relies more on his striking than his wrestling and has only landed one takedown in the UFC, which came in his debut. He throws tons of spinning attacks, but he’s also incredibly dangerous with his submission attempts as we saw in his last fight. While he only has 98 seconds of cage time since 2019, he looked explosive in those two short fights and looks like a problem for the division if he can be more active moving forward. The one thing he’s yet to do in his career is land a finish beyond the first round, so it will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

Douglas Silva de Andrade

11th UFC Fight (6-4)

After starting his UFC career off 4-4 with just one early win in seven years, Silva de Andrade recently finished two opponents four months apart. The first of those came in a R1 KO against a low level talent in Gaetano Pirrello who was cut following his second straight early loss, while the more recent was against a tougher opponent in a second round comeback submission win over Sergey Morozov. Prior to joining the UFC, Silva de Andrade had a perfect 22-0 pro record with 19 early wins. His early struggles in the UFC are understandable when you look at who he’s fought, with names like Lerone Murphy, Petr Yan, Marlon Vera, Rob Font, and Zubaira Tukhugov on his record.

In his last fight, Silva de Andrade looked to be in real trouble early on as Morozov landed a knockdown 90 seconds into the first round. However, Silva de Andrade was able to survive off his back while Morozov looked to end it with ground and pound. Morozov was able to split Silva de Andrade open, but couldn’t get him out of there and Silva de Andrade was able to return to his feet with a little under two minutes remaining in the round. Morozov finished the round with another takedown as he completely commanded the first five minutes of the fight. Silva de Andrade wasn’t ready to concede the defeat and came out firing in round two, dropping Morozov less than a minute in. Morozov looked to grapple to buy time to recover, but Silva de Andrade was able to return to space. An accidental eye poke from Morozov momentarily paused the action, but as soon as the fight resumed Silva de Andrade dropped Morozov another time. Morozov again desperately looked to grapple with no success, but Silva de Andrade continued to batter him, before shoving him to the mat, taking his back, and choking him unconscious. The fight was non-stop action and finished with Silva de Andrade ahead in knockdowns 3-1 and in significant strikes 37-32, while Morozov led in total strikes 62-57 and in takedowns 1-0. That was the second time in his first three UFC fights that Morozov had been choked unconscious in the second round via rear-naked choke for what it’s worth.

Now 28-4 as a pro, Silva de Andrade has 20 wins by KO, two by submission, and six decisions. He has one TKO loss, which came in a 2018 post round two corner stoppage against Petr Yan, but has never truly been knocked out. His only other early loss came in a 2017 R2 guillotine submission loss to Rob Font. His other two losses both went the distance. Nine of his 10 UFC fights have made it to the second round, with six seeing round three, and five going the distance.

Silva de Andrade started his career at 145 lb and remained there for his debut. However, after suffering his first career loss in a decision against Zubaira Tukhugov in his debut, Silva de Andrade moved down to 135 lb. He went 3-2 in his next five fights at 135 lb, but moved back up to 145 lb in 2019 to split a pair of decisions. He then moved back down to 135 lb, where he’s stayed since. So he’s gone 1-2 in three decisions at 145 lb in the UFC and 5-2 at 135 lb, with three early wins and two early losses.

Overall, Silva de Andrade relies almost entirely on his striking and only has one takedown in his last five fights. He looks like a bag of rocks and hits like one too, although he’s still only knocked out one opponent since 2016. He’s typically not a guy that will put up huge striking totals, averaging just 3.83 SSL/min in his career. He’s also been taken down at least once in all four of his UFC losses. He’s accustomed to facing high level competition and that won’t change in this next matchup.

Fight Prediction:

Nurmagomedov will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, in addition to being seven years younger than the 37-year-old De Andrade.

Despite being 37 years old, Silva de Andrade has looked as explosive as ever lately, but looked pretty hittable in his last fight before turning the tables in round two. If he starts this next fight the way he did his last one, he may not last long enough to mount a comeback. Both of these two are dangerous strikers, but Nurmagomedov looks to be on that next level. This should be a good test for both guys as they have each been extremely durable, with just one combined KO/TKO loss in their career. With that said, Silva de Andrade was nearly finished in the first round of his last fight and that’s when Nurmagomedov has historically been the most dangerous. If Nurmagomedov can land something clean, he has a good chance of handing Silva de Andrade the first round one loss of his career. However, it’s unsustainable to think he’ll just finish every opponent he faces in the first round and he’s due for a decision win, which is how we think this ends.

Our favorite bet here is “Nurmagomedov Decision” at +250.

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DFS Implications:

Nurmagomedov is coming off back-to-back slate-breaking performances in a pair of first round finishes that both took less than a minute. In fact, his last three wins have all come in the first round and scored 107 or more DraftKings points. While he has eight career early wins overall, he’s never finished an opponent beyond the first round and scored just 69 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win and just 27 points in his one decision loss. The only takedown he’s landed in the UFC came in his debut, and he only averages 4.75 SSL/min. So he’s not a guy that has shown the ability to score well in a decision, especially when you factor in his expensive price tag. He’s now facing an opponent who’s only been finished twice in 32 pro fights, so this doesn’t look like a great matchup for Nurmagomedov, although neither did his last one and we all saw how that worked out. Nevertheless, it’s hard to confidently rely on a fighter who depends so heavily on first round finishes. So despite Nurmagomedov looking extremely dangerous in his last two fights, we’re still treating him as a round one finish or bust play in DFS. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in the first round.

Silva de Andrade is coming off the best two scoring performances of his career, in a pair of finishes that scored 105 and 120 DraftKings points. Prior to that, he has never topped 89 points in his first eight UFC fights. Just keep in mind, he was nearly finished in the first round of his last fight, and his matchup prior to that was against a low-level opponent who got cut after getting finished in both of his two UFC fights. Silva de Andrade has averaged just 68 DraftKings points in his three decision wins and even at his cheaper price tag he needs a finish to be useful. That certainly won’t come easy, as he steps into an incredibly difficult matchup against a high-level opponent who’s never been finished. Silva de Andrade's recent scoring explosion should drive up his ownership some, which further lowers our interest in playing him in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Caio Borralho

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Fresh off a technical decision win in his UFC debut, Borralho has won 10 in a row (not counting a No Contest) with six of those wins coming early, although four of his last five matches have ended in decisions. He went on DWCS twice in less than a month's time in September and October 2021. After not getting a contract in a decision win at 185 lb, he returned to the show three weeks later at 205 lb and landed a first round knockout.

In his recent UFC debut, Borralho got taken down a minute into the fight by a debuting Russian wrestler in Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. Impressively, Borralho was immediately able to reverse the position and control Omargadzhiev for the remainder of the round. Early in round two Omargadzhiev wildly missed on a big punch and his momentum carried him to the mat where Borralho immediately took his back and once again controlled him for the remainder of the round. While Borralho didn’t even need to attempt a takedown to get the fight to the ground in the first two rounds, he landed his only attempt of the fight midway through round three. However, as Omargadzhiev returned to his feet, Borralho landed an illegal knee as Omargadzhiev still had one hand on the mat. There was only 64 seconds remaining in the fight and instead of getting disqualified Borralho was deducted a point and it went to a technical decision as Omargadzhiev said he was unable to continue. Borralho won all three rounds prior to the illegal strike, so he went on to win a 29-27 unanimous technical decision.

Now 11-1 as a pro, Borralho has four wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. His only career loss came in a 2015 decision in his second pro fight. All four of his knockouts have ended in the first round, as have two of his three submission wins. His only finish beyond the first round was a 2016 third round rear-naked choke. While 7 of his 11 career wins have come early, four of his last five victories have ended in decisions, with the one exception being a first round KO win on DWCS in a fight up at 205 lb against an unimpressive opponent in Jesse Murray who has been knocked out in the first two rounds in 4 of his last 10 fights. Borralho started his career at 170 lb in 2014 before moving up to 185 lb in 2018. His only career fight at 205 lb came in his last fight before joining the UFC, and he returned to 185 lb for his UFC debut.

Overall, Borralho is a well rounded fighter who is a Judo brown belt and a BJJ black belt and has spent the last eight years training with Demian Maia, so you know he can handle himself on the mat. With that said, he generally pushes a slower pace, and we saw him coast down the stretch in the third round of his first DWCS appearance. He later said it was because he got tired for what it’s worth. He seems clueless in terms of what the UFC and fans are looking for out of fighters, and hypes himself up a little too much after boring decision wins. His karate style paired with his grappling generally makes for lower significant striking totals in his fights. Only three of his seven finishes came against opponents with winning records and he’s still yet to face an opponent with any UFC experience. He looks like a guy who will need to be humbled once or twice before he fully reaches his potential.

Armen Petrosyan

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Coming off a close split-decision victory over Gregory Rodrigues, Petrosyan saw the judges for the first time in his career. While he only had eight professional fights, his previous seven had all ended in knockouts (6-1). He punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round knockout on DWCS in October 2021.

In his last fight, Petrosyan took on a tough opponent in Rodrigues, who surprisingly didn’t rely on his grappling more heavily. While Rodrigues finished the fight with two takedowns landed on three attempts, his first attempt didn’t come until the final minute of the second round. Considering Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt and 8-time National BJJ Champion, while Petrosyan has looked helpless on the mat, that doesn’t make a ton of sense. Petrosyan was able to land 39 leg strikes and lapped Rodrigues in total significant strikes landed, but all the big moments in the fight belonged to Rodrigues and it looked like he was on the verge of finishing Petrosyan at multiple points. While the fight appeared much closer in live time, Petrosyan actually finished ahead 127-61 in significant strikes, while Rodrigues only amassed 94 seconds of control time with his two takedowns. Head strikes were close to even in the fight, with Petrosyan leading 50-45, but he racked up a ton of body and leg kicks to bolster his striking total.

Now 7-1 as a pro, Petrosyan has six wins by KO and the one decision. The only loss of his career came in a 2021 63 second R1 KO. His last two, and three of his six knockout wins also occurred in round one, while he has two more second round finishes, and one in round three. His last four early wins have all occurred in the first two rounds. Petrosyan fought his last five fights prior to joining the UFC up at 205 lb, but dropped down to 185 lb for his debut, which is where it appears he will stay. He also notably only weighed in at 201.5 for his DWCS match.

Overall, Petrosyan is a black belt in karate and a Russian karate, K-1, and Muay Thai champion, as well being a world champion in Muay Thai. He’s a pure striker who offers absolutely nothing in terms of grappling and hHe tends to give up his back when trying to return to his feet after getting taken down. Apparently he went to Dagestan prior to going on DWCS to work on his defensive wrestling, so he’s at least trying to improve that gaping hole in his game. In his DWCS win, Petrosyan was taken down three times on five attempts in a fight that only lasted four and a half minutes. Then in his recent debut, he was taken down twice on three attempts. So in his last four rounds of action he’s been taken down five times on eight attempts and he has just a 37% takedown defense.

Fight Prediction:

Petrosyan allegedly will have a 5” height advantage, but Borralho will have a 4” reach advantage and is 100% taller than what he’s listed at by the UFC.

These two fighters both punched their ticket to the UFC on week eight of DWCS in October 2021 and each won a decision in their respective UFC debuts. Petrosyan is the more active striker and loves to throw a ton of kicks, but has a gaping hole in his game when it comes to grappling and Borralho is a BJJ black belt who has spent the last eight years training with Demian Maia and markets himself as a fighting nerd. It would make no sense for him to keep this fight standing, and we expect Borralho to try and control this fight on the mat. While Borralho only has three submission wins on his record and just two since 2016, in addition to Petrosyan never being submitted in his career, this looks like a prime opportunity for him to show off his grappling. Whether or not he lands a submission or rides out a decision win on the mat is a different story. Petrosyan is very dangerous on the feet and throws heavy kicks, so Borralho will need to be careful not to absorb too many shots or else he could suffer the first early loss of his career. With that said, we like him to come in with a smart grappling-heavy game plan and quickly get this fight to the ground. While he should have plenty of opportunities to lock in a submission, we still think it’s more likely he wins a smothering decision with a ton of control time and a handful of takedowns.

Our favorite bet here is “Borralho DEC or SUB” at +100.

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DFS Implications:

Borralho has looked like a pretty patient counter striker who doesn’t take a ton of risks and won’t put up huge striking totals. His best attribute for DFS appears to be his grappling, which makes him a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel. He hasn’t submitted anybody in his last five fights, with four of those going the distance, but he is a BJJ black belt who has spent years training with Demian Maia, and now he’ll face a one dimensional striker. So this is a really favorable matchup for him to find grappling success and we like his chances of either landing a submission or smothering Petrosyan on the mat for 15 minutes and winning a decision. We saw him accrue over 10 minutes of control time in his UFC debut, but because he only landed one takedown and not a ton of ground strikes he still scored just 77 DraftKings points in the win. He did lose a minute of time at the end as he landed an illegal knee and the find ended in a technical decision with 64 seconds remaining on the clock so it was far from an ideal scenario. He also was going against a Russian wrestler so simply finishing with that much control time was impressive. This next matchup is far more favorable for him to land more takedowns and score more points on the ground. His expensive price tag could still result in him getting priced out of the winning lineup, and he scored just 88 points in his second most recent decision win, which took palace on DWCS. Nevertheless, if he can avoid getting knocked out he should have a solid floor and is in a good spot for a ceiling performance. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Petrosyan went to the judges for the first time in his career in his recent UFC debut and won a close split decision. While he put up a huge striking total, mostly through kicks, he still scored just 81 DraftKings points. That fight played out mostly on the feet, but we expect far more grappling in this next matchup, which should limit Petrosyan’s ability to land as many strikes and further reduce his scoring potential in a decision. So even at his cheaper price tag, he looks like a KO or bust play. Working against him, he’s going up against an opponent who’s never been finished, generally fights pretty cautiously on the feet, and will be looking to get the fight to the ground. Overall, this looks like a bad matchup for Petrosyan to succeed, but he does have solid power and we can’t eliminate the possibility of him landing a knockout. The odds imply Petrosyan has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Rafael Fiziev

7th UFC Fight (5-1)

This matchup had originally been booked back in February, but then it got rescheduled for March. However, then Fiziev tested positive for COVID and it was eventually rebooked for this slate. So these two have had ample time to prepare for one another. Fiziev is on a five fight winning streak since suffering his only career loss in an 86 second R1 spinning back kick TKO in his 2019 UFC debut. He’s knocked out two of his last three opponents, in impressive finishes of Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano. He also has decision wins over Booby Green and Marc Diakiese.

In his last fight, Fiziev handed Brad Riddell the first KO loss of his career with a third round spinning wheel kick. The two traded bombs for two and a half rounds before Fiziev caught Riddell with the perfectly placed kick midway through round three that seemed to put Riddell out on his feet and the fight was immediately stopped. While we didn’t see a ton of volume being landed, every strike that did connect was of the extremely significant type as the current and former Tiger Muay Thai coaches put on a striking clinic. Fiziec finished ahead in significant strikes 66-59 and had Riddell cut open pretty badly in a couple of spots before landing the finish.

Now 11-1 as a pro, Fiziev has seven wins by KO, one by submission, and three decisions. His lone submission win came in a 2016 R1 rear-naked choke in his second pro fight and all of his other fights have ended in either knockouts or decisions. His only loss was a R1 TKO in his 2019 UFC debut. Six of his eight early wins came in round one, while he also has one second round KO win and another in round three. While his first seven pro fights all ended in the first two rounds, four of his last five have made it to round three, with three of those going the distance. He only has one first round finish since 2017, after his first five pro wins all ended in round one.

Overall, Fiziev is a violent striker and a coach at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand. While he doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, with only two takedowns in six UFC fights and none in his last three, he has a really solid 95% takedown defense and has only been taken down once on 22 attempts by his opponents. That takedown came in his last fight against Riddell, and Fiziev immediately returned to his feet. Just keep in mind, the only real grappler Fiziev has faced is Renato Moicano, who foolishly only attempted one takedown against Fiziev before getting knocked out late in the first round.

This will be the first five round fight of Fiziev’s career, so he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes. That leaves some questions to be answered about his cardio in the championship rounds, so this should be interesting if it runs long as the odds suggest.

Rafael Dos Anjos

32nd UFC Fight (20-11)

Dos Anjos is coming off a pair of five-round decision wins against opponent’s who both stepped in on less than a week’s notice. He’s only fought once since November 2020, so he hasn’t been very active lately, after fighting at least twice a year from 2007 to 2020. However, after not fighting at all in 2021, he’ll now be competing for the second time in four months. His most recent win came against Renato Carneiro, after defeating Paul Felder previously.

In his last fight, Dos Anjos had been scheduled to face Rafael Fiziev, but Fiziev tested positive for COVID and dropped out and Renato Moicano stepped in on just four days’ notice. Dos Anjos went from being a +200 underdog against Fiziev to a -180 favorite against Moicano. Dos Anjos was able to out wrestle Moicano and control him for extended periods of time on the mat, while also winning the striking exchanges. Dos Anjos wobbled Moicano with a head kick midway through the third round that looked like it might be the beginning to the end, but Moicano was able to hang on off his back to survive the round. The fight was close to getting stopped after the third round and even closer after round four, however, the doctor, ref, and corner all allowed a battered Moicano to go out there for a 5th round. Dos Anjos took it easy on Moicano in the final five minutes, allowing him to survive to see a decision opposed to pushing for a finish, which was there if he really wanted it.

Now 31-13 as a pro, Dos Anjos has five wins by KO, 10 by submission, and 16 decisions. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out three times and has 10 decision losses. However, he’s only been knocked out once since 2010, which came in the first round of a 2016 fight against Eddie Alvarez. His other two KO/TKO losses were a 2010 R3 TKO against Clay Guida from a jaw injury and a 2008 R3 KO against Jeremy Stephens in Dos Anjos’ UFC debut. All three of his early losses occurred at 155 lb where he started his UFC career. He moved up to 170 lb in 2017 following a five-round decision loss to Tony Ferguson. After winning his first three fights up at 170 lb, he went just 1-4 in his next five as he faced a gauntlet of high-level opponents in Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, Kevin Lee, Leon Edwards, and Michael Chiesa. After going 4-4 at 170 lb, he moved back down to 155 lb for his last two fights and he’s now gone 16-7 at 155 lb in the UFC, although his last fight was technically at a 160 lb Catchweight due to the short notice nature. His last four and seven of his most recent eight fights have gone the distance, with the once exception being a 2019 R4 submission win over Kevin Lee. Six of those seven decisions were in five-round fights and the only time he’s been in a three round match in the last half a decade was in a 2020 decision loss to Michael Chiesa in Dos Anjos’ final fight at 170 lb.

Overall, Dos Anjos is a 4th degree BJJ black belt who relies on his grappling to win fights on the mat. He’s won his last three fights where he landed a takedown and lost his last three where he didn’t. In UFC fights that have lasted more than one round, he’s just 1-7 when he’s failed to land a takedown, with that lone win coming all the way back in 2013. He landed 11 takedowns on 37 attempts in his last two fights, with over 27 and a half minutes of combined control time. While Dos Anjos landed a pair of submission wins in his time up at 170 lb, his last 14 fights at 155 lb have all ended in either knockouts (3-1) or decisions (8-2). All of those knockouts occurred in the first two rounds, with three ending in round one. However, the most recent of those knockouts was still all the way back in 2015 against Donald Cerrone. The last time he submitted a 155 lb opponent was all the way back in 2012. While he’s a capable striker, we expect him to once again rely heavily on his grappling in this next match.

This will be the 13th five-round fight of Dos Anjos’ UFC career (7-5). He’s gone 5-2 in his seven five-round fights at 155 lb, but just 2-3 in his five at 170 lb. Seven of his last eight five-round fights have gone the distance, and all eight of those made it into the championship rounds, with the only one to end early finishing in a fourth round submission win. He won the Lightweight belt against Anthony Pettis in 2015 and then successfully defended it against Cerrone before losing it to Eddie Alvarez in 2016.

Here are all of Dos Anjos’ five-round UFC fight results:
2022 R5 DEC W vs. Moicano at 155 lb
2020 R5 DEC W vs. Felder at 155 lb
2019 R5 DEC L vs. Edwards at 170 lb
2019 R4 SUB W vs. Lee at 170 lb
2018 R5 DEC L vs. Usman at 170 lb
2018 R5 DEC L vs. Covington at 170 lb
2017 R5 DEC W vs. Lawler at 170 lb
2016 R5 DEC L vs. Ferguson at 155 lb
2016 R1 KO L vs. Alvarez at 155 lb (Title Fight)
2015 R1 KO W vs. Cerrone at 155 lb (Title Fight)
2015 R5 DEC W vs. Pettis at 155 lb (Title Fight)
2015 R1 KO W vs. Henderson at 155 lb

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’8” but Fiziev will have a 1” reach advantage and is eight years younger than the 37-year-old Dos Anjos.

This is a high-level striker versus grappler battle and we expect to see the 95% takedown defense of Fiziev tested early and often. Fiziev has done a great job of defending takedowns so far in the UFC, but this will easily be his toughest test to date. He’s only been taken down once on 22 attempts so far and immediately returned to his feet the one time he was taken down, so we haven’t seen him have to operate off his back at all. He’s also never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes as this will be the first-five round fight of his career, so his cardio in the championship rounds is also uncertain. While that all adds some uncertainty into the mix, Fiziev is the better striker and the outcome of this fight will simply come down to whether or not Dos Anjos is able to get it to the mat. If Fiziev is allowed to operate in space, he’ll be the one landing the more damaging shots and has a good chance to land a knockout. With that said, we like Dos Anjos’ chances of finding at least some early grappling success, and dragging this fight into the later rounds. At that point, his plethora of five-round experience should give him the advantage and as long as he doesn’t get knocked out early we like his chances of pulling off the upset.

Our favorite bet here is “Dos Anjos Decision” at +380.

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DFS Implications:

Fiziev has generally struggled to put up big DFS totals, scoring 72 or less DraftKings points in four of his five UFC wins. He was able to score 109 points in a first round knockout, but just 72 points in his recent R3 KO win. He lands a decent amount of volume, but doesn’t add much of anything in terms of grappling and is now going up against a 4th degree BJJ black belt in Dos Anjos. That both makes it highly unlikely that Fiziev will even consider looking for a rare takedown and will cap his striking ceiling as Dos Anjos will primarily be looking to grapple. While Dos Anjos has been knocked out three times in his career, the only time he’s been finished since 2010 was by Eddie Alvarez back in 2016. So overall, Dos Anjos has been very durable, despite facing a ridiculously high level of competition. While Fiziev could theoretically score somewhat decently through volume alone in a decision win here, he more likely needs a knockout in either the first round or late in round two to return value at his high price tag. One thing working in his favor in DFS, we expect Fiziev to be owned less than your typical main event favorite and Dos Anjos to be more popular than your typical underdog, which adds to Fiziev’s tournament appeal. He has a 66% chance to win, a 27% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.

Dos Anjos continues to put up slate breaking scores in five-round fights that go the distance, averaging 143 DraftKings points and 131 points on FanDuel in his four UFC five-round decision wins. He also has three finishes in five-round fights, averaging 102 DraftKings points in those instances. In addition to those seven wins, he’s also lost five UFC five-round fights, but those defeats came against elite competition in Leon Edwards, Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, Tony Ferguson (pre-washed), and Eddie Alvarez. There are several potential concerns with Dos Anjos, beginning with the fact that he’s now 37 years old and has only fought once since November 2020. Also, each of his last two wins came against short notice replacements, which is always an advantageous spot to be in. Those two victories represent his only two fights at 155 lb since 2016, as he moved up to 170 lb from 2017 until 2020, where he went 4-4. Just prior to moving up in weight, Dos Anjos notably lost his last two fights at 155 lb. One other reason for concern, Fiziev has shown a rock solid 95% takedown defense so far in his first six UFC fights, only briefly getting taken down once on 22 attempts. Working in Dos Anjos’ favor, he has 12 five-round fights in the UFC (7-5), while this will be the first five-round match of Fiziev’s career. So if this fight does go long, as the odds suggest, Dos Anjos’ experience should help him in the later rounds. Dos Anjos will be reliant on his grappling to win, and has historically struggled in longer fights when he’s unable to get them to the mat, going just 1-7 in UFC fights that have lasted longer than a round and where he’s failed to land a takedown. The key to the fight will be whether or not Fiziev’s takedown defense holds up. If it does, Dos Anjos will either get knocked out or lose a striking battle. However, if it doesn’t, Dos Anjos should be looking at another big grappling-heavy score. At his cheap price tag, it’s hard to see Dos Anjos getting left out of tournament winning lineups if he pulls off the upset, and he’s proven multiple times that he can put up slate-breaking scores in five-round decision wins. The odds imply Dos Anjos has a 34% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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