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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Thomas Petersen
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Petersen will be making his UFC debut following a second round submission win on DWCS over Chandler Cole. You may remember Cole from The Ultimate Fighter Season 30, or you may not because he got knocked out in the first round of the show. That’s a good representation of the level of competition that Petersen has been facing on the Minnesota regional scene and his two opponents before going on DWCS came in with records of 6-4 and 2-3. The first eight fights of Petersen’s career ended in knockouts (7-1), with most of his finishes coming via ground and pound. The only time he ever faced a legitimate opponent was in a 2022 LFA title fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who knocked Petersen out in the third round.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Petersen has seven wins by KO/TKO and one submission victory. Six of his knockout wins occurred in under four minutes, with the other coming in round two. His lone submission victory also ended in round two. The only loss of his career was a 2022 R3 TKO, which is the only time Petersen has ever seen the third round. The longest win of his career came at the 8:14 mark. After Petersen’s first five pro fights all ended in round one, three of his last four made it to the second round. All of Petersen’s wins have come against a very low level of competition, so take his record with a grain of salt. Half of his wins came against opponents with losing records.
Overall, Petersen is a Heavyweight wrestler who’s been wrestling since he was a little kid and was a two-time state high school champ. He’ll occasionally look for armbars and keylock submissions on the mat, but he’s only a BJJ blue belt and is more often trying to finish fights with ground and pound. Petersen doesn’t have great striking and hasn’t shown the ability to win longer fights when he’s unable to land an early finish. He’s very reliant on getting fights to the mat and controlling his opponents and has faced very little adversity in his career outside of his one loss. It looks like he’ll be very matchup dependent in the UFC and the matchmakers opted to test him against a fellow grappler in his debut instead of giving him a one-dimensional striker that he could easily out wrestle.
Jamal Pogues
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, Pogues dropped a decision to a debuting Mick Parkin, who landed all 42 of his leg kicks in the fight. Pogues struggled with his own accuracy in the match, only landing 36 of the 135 significant strikes he threw, while also missing on his only takedown attempt. The fight looked like more of a sparring match and was never close to ending early. Just before that, Pogues won a decision in his UFC debut against Josh Parisian, where Pogues was able to land 5 of his 11 takedown attempts with nearly six minutes of control time. We didn’t see a ton of strikes landed in the match, with Parisian finishing ahead in significant strikes 37-33 and in total strikes 51-49. It looked like Parisian broke his toes in the first round, while Pogues broke his hand late in round two. That required Pogues to deal with a recovery process following the match, where he said he worked on his Muay Thai a bunch while just avoiding using that hand for a while. Leading up to the win in his debut, Pogues won a low-volume decision at Heavyweight on DWCS. It’s worth pointing out that Pogues’ opponent in that fight was not a real Heavyweight (6’0”, 221 lb), who had fought all the way down at 170 lb back in 2017. We saw less grappling from Pogues in that fight, as he failed to land his only two takedown attempts, and he also got outlanded on the feet in each of the first two rounds before finally turning it on in round three. Pogues got his lead leg chewed up throughout the match as he absorbed 46 leg strikes, and it didn’t look like his calves got the memo he was planning on moving up to Heavyweight based on their size. Pogues was content with throwing out a single punch at a time while eating the calf kicks in what was a very lackluster fight.
Prior to competing at Heavyweight on DWCS in 2022, Pogues had competed at Light Heavyweight in his previous three fights. The first of those three was also on DWCS back in 2019, after he competed at Heavyweight for the first time in his career earlier that year. While Pogues won his first Heavyweight fight, it’s important to point out that it came against an opponent who was making his pro debut, is now 0-4, and who dropped down to 205 lb for his next fight and then all the way down to 185 lb for the one after that. In his first DWCS appearance, Pogues landed 7 of his 11 takedown attempts and won a unanimous 30-27 decision, but was not awarded a UFC contract. He then got submitted in the fourth round of his next fight before winning a decision in September 2020. Following that win he took 23 months off before moving back up to Heavyweight for his last second appearance on DWCS. Pogues’ last four wins have all come by decision, and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2019 when he knocked out an opponent making his pro debut.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Pogues has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. His only KO/TKO loss came in the second round of his 2016 pro debut, which took place at 185 lb, while he was submitted in the later rounds in two of his other losses, which both took place at 205 lb. He’s coming off the first decision loss of his career, after winning on the scorecards in his first five trips to the judges. Pogues has one fight at 185 lb (2016 R2 KO L), nine fights at Light Heavyweight (7-2), and four fights at Heavyweight (3-1). Only five of Pogues’ 10 pro wins came against opponents with winning records, with all five of those wins going the distance. His five finishes came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 1-2, 0-0, 0-1, and 0-0.
Overall, Pogues is a BJJ black belt and started training jiu-jitsu as a teenager. While he’s got the belly of a Heavyweight, he has the calves of a Middleweight and we’ve seen multiple opponents land 40+ leg kicks against him to capitalize on that. It seems like he only added fat and no muscle when he moved up from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight and lacks any sort of knockout power. Even against low-level opponents, he’s fought to one decision after the next and nothing he’s done has been impressive. While he does offer some grappling upside, he only has one career submission win, which was all the way back in 2017 in his second pro fight against who was making his pro debut and finished his career 0-2. Between his two DWCS matches and his two UFC fights, Pogues landed 12 of his 25 takedown attempts (48% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just one of their three attempts (66.7% defense). He notably failed to land a takedown in two of his last three fights since moving up to Heavyweight for good in 2022, and the only opponent he’s taken down recently was a terrible Josh Parisian. Pogues is a slower paced decision grinder who has no shot at ever climbing the Heavyweight rankings in the UFC. If he was serious about his career he would get in shape and move back down to Light Heavyweight, but we don’t see him doing that.
Fight Prediction:
Pogues will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This is a low-level fight between two Heavyweight grapplers. Pogues has a background in jiu jitsu, while Petersen has been wrestling his entire life. That typically means that Petersen will have an easier time landing takedowns, while Pogues will be more comfortable off his back. We’ve never seen Petersen get put on his back in his career, as he’s faced very little adversity outside of his one knockout loss. That loss was the only time Petersen has ever even made it past the second round and he seemed to be slowing down in round three. That’s a boost for Pogues, who has fought to four straight decisions, winning three of those. If he can just win one of the first two rounds, he should be in a good position to win round three and squeak out a decision. Pogues hasn’t had to defend many takedowns lately, so it’s tougher to truly gauge how good his takedown defense is at Heavyweight, but his grappling background is encouraging for his ability to at least survive even if he does end up on the mat. With that said, it’s never a good position to be in when you have a 250 lb man laying on top of you raining down elbows, and Heavyweight matches between two grapplers are always inherently volatile. We could see the grappling skills of these two cancel each other out and turn this into more of a striking battle, although neither of them have been impressive on the feet. We’re expecting a slower paced fight that likely includes some cage control and a small number of takedowns. We don’t really see a finish happening and there’s a good chance Petersen will start to slow down by the third round. That should allow Pogues to out jab his way to winning the final five minutes and force a close decision, that we think he squeaks out.
Our favorite bet here is “Petersen/Pogues FGTD” at +102.
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DFS Implications:
Petersen’s wrestling-heavy style is generally one we’re looking to target in DFS, especially at Heavyweight where so many fighters are terrible off their backs. However, we’re not sold on Petersen as a prospect and all of his wins have come against an incredibly low level of competition. The only time he’s ever been tested was when he faced Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who’s still a one-dimensional striker, and Petersen got knocked out. While Petersen has shown good top pressure and ground and pound, he still needs to prove he can find the same level of success against legitimate competition before we’ll get excited about playing him. While Pogues hasn’t done anything to impress us either, he is a BJJ black belt and should be able to remain competitive on the mat with Petersen, and that’s if Petersen can even take him down. Petersen hasn’t shown much in the way of striking and will have a tougher time winning fights and/or scoring well on the feet. We expect Petersen’s wrestling, 100% finishing rate, and recent finish on DWCS to drive his ownership up, despite this being a less favorable matchup for him. While he does still have a high ceiling if he can get his wrestling going, we think he fails more often than not in this spot and we expect his ownership to surpass the likelihood of him scoring well. The odds imply Petersen has a 59% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Pogues landed five takedowns in a dream matchup in his UFC debut against Josh Parisian, but still only scored 82 DraftKings points due to his low striking output. Pogues is a rare Heavyweight grappler who hasn’t shown much upside and needs to get busier on the mat if he really wants to score well. His previous decision win on DWCS only would have scored 58 points on DraftKings and 61 on FanDuel, in a fight where he failed to land either of his takedown attempts. And then most recently, he once again failed to land a takedown on just one attempt and only scored 17 DraftKings points in a decision loss. The last time he finished anybody was in 2019 and most of Pogues’ career was spent down at Light Heavyweight. Now he’ll face a fellow Heavyweight grappler, who will be looking to wrestle. While that could create the potential for Pogues to reverse things on the mat and end up in favorable positions to put up points, it also could result in a grappling stalemate where this turns into a low-volume bog on the feet. Pogues has been so underwhelming that it’s hard to ever get excited about playing him, but at his cheaper price tag it’s not impossible he could serve as a value play even without a big score. We’re inclined to label him a low floor, low ceiling play, although when you combine Heavyweights and grappling there’s always some inherent volatility. We’ve yet to see Petersen have to operate off his back in his career and he’s also never won a fight that made it past the 8:14 mark. So if we get a more inspired performance from Pogues, it’s possible he could land a late finish or at least beat Petersen up on the mat. We’re definitely not holding our breath though. The odds imply Pogues has a 41% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Marquel Mederos
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a first round knockout win on DWCS, Mederos has won six straight fights, with four of those ending in knockouts, including three in round one. He only turned pro in June 2021 and has spent his career with Fury FC up to this point, the same organization that gave us Josh Van.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Mederos has six KO/TKO wins and two decision victories. Three of those finishes ended in round one, two came in round two, and the other was in round three. He’s never been finished himself, with his only career loss coming in a split decision in his third pro fight.
Overall, Mederos is a well-rounded fighter who trains at elevation with Factory X. He starts almost every fight with a leg kick to set the tone and does a good job of attacking his opponents at multiple levels with his boxing, kicking, and wrestling. He’s only a BJJ purple belt and has never submitted anybody, but he will look to take the backs of his opponents on the mat and has done a good job of racking up takedowns and control time in his longer fights. He has good movement and quickness and also a good fight IQ, especially for a guy that only turned pro two and a half years ago.
Landon Quinones
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Quinones exceeded expectations in his recent short notice UFC debut, but still lost every round of the fight against Nasrat Haqparast and absorbed a ridiculous 171 significant strikes. He did a good job of beating up Haqparast’s lead leg, but got away from that later in the fight and wasn’t doing much damage with his boxing. However, he did put up a big striking total, finishing with 148 significant strikes landed in the high-volume affair. Prior to that, Quinones went on The Ultimate Fighter and got submitted just 55 seconds into the first round of his first fight on the show. Before going on TUF, Quinones won five straight fights on the regional scene against a very low level of competition. While four of those five wins ended in knockouts, all of those finishes/wins should be taken with a grain of salt based on the level of competition he had been facing.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Quinones has five wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision win. While he got submitted on TUF, that technically counts as an exhibition match and he’s never officially been finished in a pro fight, with both of his losses going the distance. Quinones started his pro career in 2017 at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in 2020.
Overall, Quinones is an uptempo fighter who tries to chip away at his opponents with volume opposed to really loading up on his shots. He does a good job of landing leg kicks and has also been tough to take down, although we haven’t seen him have to defend any takedowns against legitimate wrestlers. His striking defense is pretty terrible, but he’s never been knocked out before. After immediately getting submitted on TUF after completing a takedown, Quinones didn’t try to get the fight to the ground in his recent debut, but was able to stuff all five of the attempts against him. Quinones showed improvements to his striking in his debut and he’s still only 28 years old, so he should be improving all the time. After taking his last fight on short notice, it will be interesting to see how he looks here with a full camp to prepare.
Fight Prediction:
Mederos will have a 1” height advantage, while Quinones will have a 1” reach advantage.
While Quinones put on a show in his recent UFC debut and was able to put up a big striking total, he still lost every round of the fight on all three scorecards. He also absorbed a ton of damage and it’s just a matter of time before he gets knocked out if he doesn’t make major improvements to his striking defense. The main thing that Quinones did well in that fight was land leg strikes early on, something that Mederos is also quite proficient at. And considering that Mederos trains with Chris Gutierrez and Jonathan Martinez, we expect him to be prepared to defend leg kicks. Quinones has done a good job of defending takedowns up until this point, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep this fight standing. Mederos likes to mix in a good amount of wrestling, but is also fully capable of throwing down in a pure striking battle. Neither of these two look like much of a submission threat and we haven’t been impressed by the power of Quinones, so this fight should either go the distance or end in a Mederos knockout victory. While it’s not impossible that Quinones could keep the fight standing and outland his way to victory, Mederos is the more well-rounded fighter, has a better team around him, and is the more powerful striker. Maybe Quinones will look significantly better with a full camp to prepare, but based on what we’ve seen from him so far we like Mederos to win this fight. Quinones is so hittable that Mederos will definitely have a shot at handing him his first knockout loss, but we’re more so expecting a Mederos decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Marquel Mederos DEC” at +320.
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DFS Implications:
Mederos offers a combination of striking and wrestling that looks promising for DFS, although we’ve yet to see him put up any big striking totals. He’s also never submitted anybody and can be a little too content with controlling opponents at times, and he’s definitely not a finished product. He only turned pro two and a half years ago though and should be improving all the time at Factory X with a ton of good fighters around him. Like many of the guys who he trains with, he throws a good number of leg kicks and basically starts all of his fights with a leg kick to get things going. While Mederos has shown the ability to rack up takedowns, Quinones has done a good job of defending takedowns in the past, so it’s not the best wrestling matchup for Mederos. However, we just saw Quinones absorb 171 significant strikes in his UFC debut and his striking defense has looked piss poor. Whether or not Mederos can get there on striking volume alone remains to be seen, but it’s at least a high-upside uptempo matchup. Mederos looks to have a solid floor, as he’s never been finished and Quinones doesn’t look especially dangerous. However, Mederos’ ceiling is less certain and Quinones has never been knocked out before. The line has been moving in Quinones’ favor, which should help to keep Mederos’s ownership lower, as he’s now technically slightly overpriced. The odds imply Mederos has a 55% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Quinones did better than expected in his recent short notice UFC debut that played out as a high-volume brawl, but he still lost every round of the fight and finished behind 171-148 in significant strikes. Both guys were willing to stand and trade in that matchup, but now Quinones will face a more elusive opponent in Mederos, who will also look to wrestle and slow things down. So it’s unlikely that we see Quinones land nearly as many strikes in this one, but that striking volume was somewhat encouraging for his scoring potential moving forward. With that said, his striking defense looked abysmal and he was only able to land that many strikes because of his willingness to eat everything coming back at him. He also attempted no takedowns in the fight and doesn’t appear to have much in the way of power. So it’s going to be hard for him to win many fights in the UFC with that style. At his cheaper price tag and with the line moving in his favor, we expect him to be somewhat owned, which lowers his tournament appeal in what looks like a tough matchup for him to score well. The odds imply Quinones has a 45% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Julija Stoliarenko
8th UFC Fight (2-5)Coming off the biggest win of her career, Stoliarenko landed one of her patented first round armbars against Molly McCann as the co-main event on a July 2023 London card. That was also notably Stoliarenko’s first fight down at 125 lb. Her second most recent fight was actually all the way up at 140 lb Catchweight against Chelsea Chandler, who finished Stoliarenko in the first round with ground and pound. Stoliarenko even fought all the way up at 145 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2018. She landed another first round armbar win in the first round of that show, but then lost a decision in her second match. It’s kind of crazy that Stoliarenko can even make 125 lb, after she infamously passed out on the scale trying to make 135 lb in 2021. Stoliarenko’s only other UFC win was a 2022 first round armbar against Jessica-Rose Clark, who was submitted in her last three UFC fights before being cut. Stoliarenko originally made her UFC debut back in 2018, but lost a decision to a terrible Leah Letson. Following that loss, Stoliarenko returned to the regional scene for two years before getting a second shot in the UFC. However, she then lost three straight fights against a trio of UFC veterans in Yana Kunitskaya, Julia Avila, and Alexis Davis, before saving her job in the win over Clark.
Now 11-7-2 as a pro, 10 of Stoliarenko’s 11 career wins have come by first round armbar, with her only other victory ending in a 2020 Invicta five-round split decision. She’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has three decision losses. She had a rocky start to her career, with two late round TKO losses and a pair of draws in her first five pro fights. She’s gone just 1-6-2 in fights that have made it past the first round. She’s competed anywhere from 125 lb to 145 lb, but it appears she’ll be staying at 125 lb for the foreseeable future.
Overall, Stoliarenko is a BJJ black belt and an armbar specialist. She has okay striking, but has looked very hittable, as she averages 2.81 SSL/min and 4.56 SSA/min. Everyone in the world knows her gameplan, as she is always looking to get fights to the ground to hunt for armbars, which eliminates the element of surprise for her. That makes it very easy to game plan for her. In her seven UFC fights, Stoliarenko landed 4 of her 13 takedown attempts (30.7% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 3 of their 8 attempts (62.5% accuracy).
Luana Carolina
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Continuing to fight to close decisions, Carolina recently defeated a debuting grappler in Ivana Petrovic. The majority of that fight was spent in the clinch and on the mat, as Petrovic landed 2 of her 6 takedowns with 4+ minutes of control time, while Carolina landed 1 of her 3 attempts with close to six minutes of control time. Carolina finished ahead just 41-22 in significant strikes and 112-77 in total strikes. That snapped a two-fight skid for Carolina, who had previously lost a split decision to Joanne Wood after getting knocked out for the first time in her career by Molly McCann. Leading up to those two losses, Carolina won a pair of really close, low-volume decisions, where she entered as a +185 and +200 dog respectively.
Now 9-4 as a pro, Carolina has two wins by TKO, one submission, and six decision victories. However, all three of the finishes occurred in her first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, and 2-1. She’s also been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Her last five wins all went the distance, while two of her three UFC losses ended early. Both of her decision losses were split, as was one of her wins. While Carolina has competed at 125 lb for her entire UFC career, her three fights prior to joining the organization were up at 135 lb and she’s big for the 125 lb division.
Overall, Carolina is a Brazilian Muay Thai striker who didn’t even attempt a takedown in any of her first six UFC fights, before landing one of her three attempts in her last match. While she’s only been taken down by her opponents on 9 of their 38 attempts (76.3% defense), her last five opponents were all able to get her down at least once. She’s landed 100 or more significant strikes in two of her seven UFC fights, and averages 4.65 SSL/min and 4.00 SSA/min.
UPDATE: Carolina missed weight by 3 lb! For what it’s worth, Carolina missed weight by 2.5 lb for a 2021 fight and went on to win a split decision.
Fight Prediction:
Stoliarenko will have a 1” height advantage, while Carolina will have a 3” reach advantage.
Specialists have become a dying breed in the UFC, but you have to put Stoliarenko in that category considering 91% of her pro wins have ended in first round armbars. While she will engage on the feet and doesn’t fight like Ryan Hall or anything, she’s been far too hittable to win many decisions. She’s also never landed more than a single takedown in a UFC fight and her lone path to victory has been to land an early takedown and complete an armbar or ultimately lose the fight. It seems unlikely that trend will continue for her entire career, but who knows. Carolina is a one-dimensional striker and if Stoliarenko can get her down she’ll definitely be live to get another finish. However, if the fight remains standing we give the advantage to Carolina. The fact that Carolina missed weight and then was forced to go and spend another hour trying to cut one more pound is concerning for her outlook, and we could see that affect her later in the fight. That at least creates a sliver of hope for Stoliarenko to win a decision if she can’t end things early and the miss sways our pick from Carolina by decision to Stoliarenko by either armbar or in a close decision. We still lean towards the fight ending with the judges in a close decision, but it won’t be shocking to see Stoliarenko stitch two wins together for the first time in the UFC following Carolina’s weight miss.
Our favorite bet here is “Stoliarenko/Carolina FGTD” at +106.
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DFS Implications:
Stoliarenko is just 2-5 in the UFC and is a one-dimensional armbar specialist, with 10 of her 11 career wins coming by R1 armbar. She’s gone just 1-6-2 in fights that have made it past the first round so it’s hard to really trust her. However, she returned DraftKings scores of 99 and 123 points in her two wins, and ended up in the winning lineup on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of those victories. So when she does win, she’s been very valuable, she just hasn’t won very often. However, after losing her first four UFC fights, she has gone 2-1 in her last three. We think that has more to do with the matchups than anything else, but who knows, maybe she’s actually improving. This will only be her second fight at 125 lb and her first ended in under two minutes, so she hasn’t had her cardio tested at the new weight class. However, we’re really only playing her for her ability to lock up an early submission and if she somehow scored well in a longer fight that would just be a bonus. The field predictably chased her last armbar win as we saw her ownership double from 12% to 24% and we expect to see something similar here after she dropped back down to 14% owned in her last match. That lowers her tournament appeal somewhat but at her cheap price tag it’s hard to see her getting left out of winning lineups if she locks up another submission. The odds imply Stoliarenko has a 59% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Carolina came nowhere close to scoring well in her last three decision wins, returning DraftKings scores of just 76, 59, and 65 points. While she was able to put up 102 DraftKings points in her UFC debut decision victory, that came in a dream matchup against Priscila Cachoeira who wants nothing more than to brawl for three rounds. Now Carolina will be going against an armbar specialist and she’ll have to be really careful not to get taken down. That will make it tougher for her to let her strikes go with reckless abandonment and any time she spends in the clinch or on the mat will also make it tougher for her to land enough volume to be useful. She also missed weight by 2 lb officially, after initially missing by 3 lb but then taking an extra hour to cut one more pound. That’s a red flag and just makes it even tougher to trust her. The only two things Carolina has going for her are her low ownership and the fact that Stoliarenko has been very hittable. That’s still not quite enough for us to get excited about playing her though. She’s a low floor, low ceiling play who will need to land her first finish since 2016 to score well. The odds imply Carolina has a 41% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
JeongYeong Lee
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Lee is a year removed from a close/controversial split-decision win in his UFC debut that determined the Road to UFC winner. It was a bizarre fight where Lee’s opponent, Yizha did almost nothing but look for takedown and control for the entire fight. Yizha landed 5 of his 21 takedown attempts and finished with over eight minutes of control time, but Lee finished ahead in total strikes 66-37 and in significant strikes 25-24, while being the one that did all the damage in the fight. It looked like Yizha was competing in a wrestling match and he seemed oblivious to the fact that he actually needed to do damage to win and instead just ruined the fight for everybody. Afterwards, Lee revealed that he came into the fight with a torn ACL, which helps to explain both why he struggled to get off the cage and why he took a year off after the win. Prior to that, Lee had finished three straight opponents in 42 seconds or less as he easily cruised to the finals of the tournament. He’s won seven straight fights, with five of those wins coming in under seven minutes and his last four finishes ending in round one. However, he didn’t compete at all in 2020 or 2021 and only has three fights since 2019.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Lee has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. His last four finishes occurred in round one and all seven of his early wins came in the first two rounds. All three of his submission wins were by armbar, with the last two of those coming in the opening 36 seconds of fights. His only loss was a 2017 two-round decision, which he later avenged with a first round knockout. Two of the four decisions he’s been to were in two-round fights, and only twice in his career has he seen the third round, which both ended in decision victories.
Overall, Lee is an explosive finisher with impressive striking accuracy and sneaky power. He’s also a BJJ black belt and dangerous anywhere fights go. He does a good job controlling the distance in fights and moves in and out of space well. He has a patient but aggressive fighting style, where he’ll try to draw out openings from his opponents, but then aggressively go for the finishes once he sees a way in. He didn’t attempt any takedowns in his last three fights, while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 23 attempts (73.9% defense).
Blake Bilder
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Bilder will be looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career, after dropping a 30-27 decision to an unimpressive Kyle Nelson. Bilder failed to land any of his three takedown attempts in the fights, while Nelson outlanded him 59-45 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Bilder won a decision in his UFC debut against a terrible Shane Young. Bilder was only able to land one of his seven takedown attempts, but outlanded Young in every round, increasing his output as the fight went on. Just before that, he landed a first round submission on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC. Bilder’s last two wins before going on DWCS both came in CFFC Featherweight title fights, which Bilder won with a R3 TKO and a R2 submission. It’s important to point out that the submission win came against an opponent who stepped in on just a day’s notice, yet still dominated Bilder for the first nine and a half minutes of the fight before Bilder threw up a triangle late in round two to steal the win. Following that comeback victory, Bilder landed the only KO/TKO victory of his career, but he once again faced a ton of adversity early on. He got knocked down not once, not twice, but thrice in the first round. However, he rebounded in round two with a knockdown of his own and then landed another knockdown in round three as he finished the fight with strikes.
Now 8-1-1 as a pro, Bilder has one TKO win, four submissions, and three decision victories. While he’s never been finished, he has one decision and a draw on his record. Three of his submission wins came in round one with the other ending in round two, while his lone TKO victory ended in round three. Four of his last five wins ended early, but four of his last five fights made it out of the first round. He hasn’t faced much in the way of competition and none of his first four opponents had winning records, while his last few haven’t been overly impressive either.
Overall, Bilder has a background in boxing and is also a BJJ black belt, so he’s decently well rounded. He’s a slow starter who’s had to deal with a lot of adversity both inside the Octagon and out, but up until his recent loss he had always found ways to win. However, that finally caught up with him in his last match and Bilder is still largely unproven. His striking isn’t overly impressive, and he’s been prone to getting dropped. To his credit, he does a good job of quickly looking for rear-naked chokes and has no problem taking opponents’ backs on the feet or working off his own back, but he still needs to clean some things up in his grappling and wrestling as well. No takedowns were attempted in his DWCS match, while he landed one of his 10 attempts in his last two fights (10% accuracy), while defending all four of the attempts against him. It will be interesting to see how Bilder responds to the first loss of his career as he takes on his toughest test to date.
Fight Prediction:
Lee will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being five years younger than the 33-year-old Bilder.
Both of these fighters are coming off underwhelming performances, but we’re far more willing to give Lee a pass on his last showing considering he had a torn ACL and his opponent wanted to do nothing but hug him for 15 minutes. Bilder had every opportunity to look for a finish in his fight but just didn’t have it in him, even against a low-level opponent like Kyle Nelson. He also wasn’t able to put Shane Young away just before that and Bilder failed to really capitalize on either of those teed up matchups. Now he’s facing a tougher test in Lee, who’s far more dangerous than anyone Bidler has ever faced. Bilder is a slow starter and Lee is just the opposite, so the potential for Bilder to get finished for the first time will be squarely in play, especially early on. It’s hard to feel completely confident in Lee’s ability to get him out of there, considering Bilder has never been finished in his career and Lee has yet to finish anybody at the UFC level, but we’re not sold on Bilder and this looks like a good buy-low spot on Lee after his last fight. Lee is capable of finishing fights both on the mat or the feet, but we like him to knock Bilder out in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “JeongYeong Lee ML” at -148.
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DFS Implications:
Lee’s recent decision win in his UFC debut couldn’t have gone much worse for him when it comes to DFS, as his opponent spent the entire fight trying to hold him up against the cage. That made it impossible to score well and Lee only returned 50 DraftKings points in the split decision victory. While that sucked at the time, it benefits us here as it should help to keep his ownership down. Lee has proven himself to be a dangerous finisher in the past and his previous three wins all ended in 42 seconds or less, showing massive DFS upside. Seven of his 10 career wins ended early, all in the first two rounds, and he’s dangerous anywhere a fight can go. However, Lee rarely looks for takedowns and typically doesn't land a ton of volume, so he is very reliant on landing early finishes to score well. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been finished before, so it’s not the best possible matchup, although we have seen Bilder hurt at multiple points in his career. Lee is dangerous enough that it’s just a matter of time until he finds his first UFC finish and with four of his seven career early wins coming in under a minute, he has slate-breaking potential written all over him. We’d rather be early than late with him, as the field will undoubtedly hammer him after he puts up a big score, but they’ll be much lighter on him for his initial explosion. So whether it’s in this fight or the next one, an eruption spot for Lee is coming soon and you better believe we’ll be there waiting to reap the rewards when it happens. The odds imply Lee has a 57% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Bilder is coming off the first loss of his career, where he only scored 31 DraftKings points in a very favorable matchup against a terrible Kyle Nelson. Just before that, Bilder was given an even easier matchup in Shane Young, but still only scored 85 DraftKings points in a decision win. Those are probably the best two matchups he’ll ever see in the UFC and now he’s facing a much more dangerous opponent in JeongYeong Lee. While Bilder has never been finished in his career, we have seen him hurt at multiple points, including a 2022 fight where he got dropped three times in the first round. He also hasn’t faced much in the way of competition in his career and we won’t be at all surprised to see him get finished early in this fight. That leaves him with a non-existent floor, in addition to the low ceiling he’s shown so far in the UFC. Making matters worse, he’s been popular in both of his UFC fights and for some reason the field seems to like him, which just lowers his appeal even further. The one thing Bilder has going for him is that Lee is still also unproven and it’s always possible that he turns out to be worse than we think. That at least adds some volatility to this matchup and if Bilder does pull off the upset he’ll have a good shot at cracking winning lineups at his cheap price tag. However, he’ll need to become the first fighter to ever finish Lee to really score well. The odds imply Bilder has a 43% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Themba Gorimbo
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Gorimbo was originally set to face Kiefer Crosbie here, but Crosbie dropped out and Rodriguez was announced as the replacement on January 5th.
Coming off his first UFC win, Gorimbo predictably dominated a one-dimensional striker in Takashi Sato on the mat for three rounds on his way to a unanimous 30-27 decision victory. Gorimbo finished the fight with three takedowns landed on eight attempts with over 11 minutes of control time. He also knocked Sato down in the second round and finished ahead in total strikes 110-56, but only 33-30 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Gorimbo was submitted in the second round of his February 2023 UFC debut against A.J. Fletcher and he’s traded wins and losses over his last five fights. Gorimbo’s only other win since 2020 was a June 2022 decision victory over a 37-year-old opponent who’s just 3-4 in his last seven outings. Prior to making his UFC debut, Gorimbo fought to a pair of wrestling heavy decisions (1-1). Those two fights were essentially mirror images of each other. They both played out almost entirely on the mat and ended with the judges, but in the first of those Gorimbo spent the entire time on his back, while in the most recent he was the one on top. Gorimbo did later say that he dislocated his shoulder in the opening 30 seconds of the loss, which if true, would help to explain why he was unable to do anything in the fight. Gorimbo was the former EFC Worldwide Welterweight champion and also fought for the EFC Lightweight belt in 2015, but got submitted in that match.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Gorimbo has one win by TKO (R1 2019), six submissions, and four decision victories. His six submission wins were split evenly across the first two rounds and he’s never finished an opponent beyond round two. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. All three of his early losses occurred in the second round. Most of Gorimbo’s career has been spent at 170 lb, but he fought down at 155 lb for a two fight stretch in 2015 (1-1). His lone KO loss came in a 163 lb Catchweight fight in 2017 against Dave Mazany, Gina Mazany’s brother.
Overall, Gorimbo is typically looking to take opponents down and control them. While he will fish for submissions, he’s just a BJJ blue belt and only has one submission win since 2015, after starting his career with five straight submissions against low level opponents. In his two UFC fights, Gorimbo landed 5 of his 10 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 2 of their 6 attempts (66.7% defense). He’s been reversed on the mat in both of his UFC fights and is still very much a work in progress, despite already being 33 years old. On the feet, he throws long, wild punches and kicks and is a pretty sloppy striker who will dangerously lunge into striking exchanges. Gorimbo is the first Zimbabwean fighter to ever win a UFC fight, although Blood Diamond was the first fighter from Zimbabwe to be signed by the organization. It’s hard not to root for the guy if you hear his story, as he came to the US from Zimbabwe dead broke and was sleeping on the couch at his gym, MMA Masters. As soon as he started making some money he turned into the humanitarian of the year as he funded projects in his home village to provide clean drinking water, cure diseases, and is now planning on building a library next. The UFC is clearly giving him the most favorable matchups they can find now to try and help him stick around and hopefully win some bonuses along the way.
Pete Rodriguez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Rodriguez wasted a year of his life and all of our time trying to make the impossible cut down from 170 lb to 155 lb, completely botching the weight cut twice in two fights scheduled against Natan Levy. Now that he’s finally given up on that ill conceived notion that he could make 155 lb, Rodriguez is returning to 170 lb. Rodriguez is 16 months removed from his last fight, where the UFC gave him the easiest matchup on the roster in Mike Jackson, who is a photographer pretending to be a fighter. Rodriguez predictably knocked Jackson out in the first round, but that barely even counts as an actual win. Just before that, Rodriguez made his UFC debut on short notice against a really tough opponent in Jack Della Maddalena, and struggled to get anything going in that match before getting finished for the first time in his short career. Before joining the UFC, Rodriguez knocked out his first four opponents all in under two and a half minutes. Rodriguez has still never been in a fight that lasted longer than three minutes.
Now 5-1 as a pro, Rodriguez has five first round knockout wins and one first round knockout loss. All of his wins have ended in less than half a round, with two of them ending in 41 seconds or less. His victories all came against low-level opponents without much experience, so take all of those victories with a massive grain of salt.
Overall, Rodriguez is a one-dimensional power puncher with very little experience. He’s just 27 years old and it’s bizarre that the UFC even brought him on with so little experience. The reason they did is because they needed someone to face Jack Della Maddalena on short notice, it’s just surprising there wasn’t anyone more qualified available. Rodriguez hasn’t attempted a takedown in either of his two UFC fights, but he was able to stuff the one attempt against him. While Rodriguez does have decent power in his hands and he’s very aggressive, he’s just a completely raw brawler and won’t be able to beat any legitimate opponents unless he lands a quick hail mary knockout. He’s too small for 170 lb, but too thick to make 155 lb, which leaves him stuck between two divisions. We haven’t seen him have to operate on the mat yet, so it’s hard to gauge his ground game, but we’d be surprised if he looked great on the ground. He does train at the MMA Lab though, so it’s always possible we’ll see an improved version of him come Saturday after so long away from the cage.
Fight Prediction:
Gorimbo will have a 4” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while also being six years older than the 27-year-old Rodriguez.
Rodriguez has yet to show he can win a UFC fight against a legitimate opponent and now hasn’t competed in 16 months after two failed attempts at moving down to 155 lb. He relies on landing quick knockouts to win fights, and because of that we haven’t seen what his cardio or ground game look like, but our expectations are low for each. Gorimbo hasn’t been especially impressive either, but the UFC is clearly trying to build him up for PR purposes and Rodriguez is one of the easiest matchups they could find for him. Rodriguez steps into all of his matchups with a R1 KO or bust approach and we expect Gorimbo to quickly look to make this a grappling match to negate the knockout threat of Rodriguez. Even if Gorimbo just holds Rodriguez up against the cage, he just needs to wear on him and drain that explosiveness for the opening few minutes. Rodriguez has never been past the three minute mark in a fight and while all we can do is speculate, we expect him to fade after the opening few minutes. At that point the only question will be does Gorimbo knock him out, submit him, or just ride out a decision on the mat. While the books are expecting a submission, keep in mind, Gorimbo only has one submission win since 2015, which was back in 2020 before he joined the UFC. Gorimbo doesn’t even have an official submission attempt since joining the UFC and he’s only a BJJ blue belt. So while it’s possible that Rodriguez turns into a corpse in the second round and his neck is just there to be had, we definitely don’t feel confident in Gorimbo’s ability to submit anybody. That leaves us far more interested in considering the decision or knockout at much longer odds, as all three outcomes are squarely in play. Gorimbo has gone the distance in three of his last four fights and has no problem just controlling opponents for extended periods of time and he also landed a knockdown in the second round of his last fight. If he does find a finish, look for it to come late in round one or more likely in round two, after Rodriguez has emptied his gas tank. While it’s kind of a crapshoot as to how Gorimbo wins, we like him to get it done and we’ll say it comes in either a second round TKO or by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Themba Gorimbo KO or DEC” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Gorimbo is generally looking to take fights to the ground and control opponents, making him a better DraftKings play than on FanDuel. His recent wrestling-heavy decision win was good for 114 DraftKings points but only 70 points on FanDuel. He’s pretty wild on the feet and throws big looping shots, while generally failing to really utilize his long reach. He’s also a little too content with holding top position on the ground and has only landed one submission since 2015, although he does have six submission wins on his record. He couldn’t have asked for a much better matchup in his last fight when it comes to locking up a finish, as Takashi Sato had been submitted in three of his previous five losses and was then knocked out in his most recent fight. However, Gorimbo still took him to a decision and was unable to put him away. The UFC saw that and said “Well shit, someone better call Pete Rodriguez” who has never been past the three minute mark. Clearly they’re trying to build up Gorimbo due to his commendable humanitarian work, and they’re literally scraping the bottom of the barrel with the matchups they’re giving him. So while Gorimbo is still pretty green and makes a lot of mistakes, he gets another teed up matchup here to either find a finish or at least dominate the fight on the mat. The odds imply Gorimbo has a 68% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Rodriguez has never been in a fight that lasted longer than three minutes, but also only has six pro fights under his belt. He had a brutally tough matchup in his short notice UFC debut against Jack Della Maddalena and predictably got knocked out in the first round. Then the UFC took mercy on him and gave him the worst “fighter” in UFC history in Mike Jackson and Rodriguez easily landed a first round knockout. Neither of those results tell us much and we’ve yet to see Rodriguez in a competitive UFC matchup. He now hasn’t fought in 16 months after unsuccessfully trying to move down to 155 lb in 2023, which adds some volatility to how he’ll look after so long away. We’ve also yet to see his ground game or what his cardio looks like, so there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding him. However, our expectations are really low and he’ll likely gas out pretty quickly and struggle on the ground. Therefore, we’re treating him as a R1 KO or bust option in a matchup that the UFC wants him to lose. If he does land a hail mary knockout he’ll almost certainly end up in winning lineups, but we’d be pretty shocked to see it happen. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 32% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Azat Maksum
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Maksum was originally set to face Nate Maness here, before Maness dropped out and Charles Johnson was announced as the replacement on January 2nd.
Keeping his undefeated record intact, Maksum is coming off a close split-decision win in his UFC debut against the ageless Tyson Nam. Maksum was only able to land 2 of his 11 takedown attempts against the really tough defense of Nam, who had previously never surrendered a takedown in his first seven UFC fights. And with the two takedowns Maksum did land, he wasn’t able to do much and finished with just 22 seconds of control time in the fight. Nam also finished ahead in significant strikes 81-46, with that entire differential coming from leg kicks, where Nam finished ahead 35-1. However, Maksum was the one doing more visible damage to the face of Nam and ultimately that was enough for two of the three judges to score the fight for him. Prior to that win, Maksum had spent almost his entire career fighting in his home country of Kazakhstan. While he was never close to finishing Nam, five of his previous six wins ended early, with three submissions and two knockouts.
Now 17-0 as a pro, Maksum has five wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and five decision victories. Eleven of his 12 finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and five in round two. His last two and four of his last six finishes were by submission, but he did land a pair of knockouts in 2021 in his two fights with the Brave Combat Federation.
Overall, Maksum is a well-rounded fighter who’s shown the ability to win fights both on the feet and the mat. While he struggled to complete takedowns in his recent UFC debut, only landing 2 of his 11 attempts (18% accuracy), he was far more efficient with his attempts in each of his previous three fights. So perhaps we can chalk up his recent struggles to the really solid takedown defense of Tyson Nam. And when Maksum has been able to complete takedowns, he’s shown a pretty decent submission game on the mat. He also has a snappy jab and sneaky power, but he’s a patient striker who doesn’t land a ton of volume. He’s still only 28 years old, so he should be improving all the time and now he gets a more favorable matchup to find wrestling success.
Charles Johnson
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Stepping into the final fight of his deal following three straight decision losses, it’s do or die for Johnson here. His most recent defeat came against a debuting Rafael Estevam, who gassed out late in round two but still banked the first two rounds and was able to narrowly hang on to survive round three as Johnson desperately pushed for a finish. Estevam was only able to land 3 of his 22 takedown attempts, but finished with over nine minutes of control time to squeak by with the judges. Just before that loss, Johnson lost all three rounds against Cody Durden, who took Johnson down 11 times on 18 attempts and controlled him for nine and a half minutes. Prior to that, Johnson lost a close split decision against Ode Osbourne, in a fight that Johnson accepted on short notice and had to travel around the world with a sinus infection to show up for, as he had been in Thailand when he got the offer. Even Ode Osbourne took Johnson down three times on 10 attempts and Osbourne has only landed one other takedown in his other seven UFC fights. The last time Johnson won a fight was in January 2023 when he landed a first round ground and pound TKO against a terrible Jimmy Flick, who was coming out of retirement after taking over two years off. Johnson’s only other UFC win was a split decision against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, who arguably won. Just before that, Johnson lost another wrestling-heavy decision in his 2022 UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev, who took Johnson down 12 times on 26 attempts and finished with close to 12 minutes of control time. So getting taken down and controlled on the ground has clearly been a problem for Johnson in the UFC, but he has at least shown the ability to avoid getting finished. He’s survived on the mat against several dangerous grapplers in the UFC and also went the distance against Brandon Royval in a 2018 decision loss. Following the loss to Royval, Johnson won four straight matches leading up to his 2022 UFC debut, with the last three of those wins coming in LFA Flyweight title fights.
Now 13-6 as a pro, Johnson has six wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. Three of his knockouts came in round one, two ended in round two, and one occurred in round five. Two of his three submission victories ended in round two, with the other ending in round one. He’s never been finished, with all six of his losses ending in decisions. Ten of his last 11 fights made it out of the first round, with eight of those seeing the third round, and two seeing the fifth round of LFA title fights. Five of his six UFC fights went the distance (1-4).
Overall, Johnson is an uptempo striker with a good submissions defense but terrible defensive wrestling. That has resulted in him getting taken down and controlled for the majority of his UFC career, but never finished. In his six UFC fights, Johnson has only landed one takedown of his own on seven attempts (14.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 31 of their 83 attempts (62.7% defense). He doesn’t appear to have a ton of power, but tends to wear on his opponents, with three of his last four finishes coming beyond the first round. Johnson only joined the UFC in July 2022, but this will already be his seventh fight with the organization and he’s been happy to step on short notice time and time again. The only problem with that is that he doesn’t appear to be taking the time to improve between fights and just keeps trying the same thing over and over again, while expecting different results. It’s only been two and a half months since he last completed and he stepped into this matchup on a month’s notice, so we’ll see if he’s able to keep the fight standing and secure the win he desperately needs to keep his job.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach. Johnson is five years older than the 28-year-old Maksum.
Johnson has been dominated on the mat repeatedly since joining the UFC and will now be fighting for his job against an opponent who consistently looks to wrestle. Johnson only had a month to prepare and it hasn’t even been three months since his last fight, so we’d be shocked if he made any major improvements to his defensive wrestling over that short time. It honestly makes zero sense why Johnson would take this fight other than the fact that he lets his ego guide his career and he prides himself on never turning down a matchup. The UFC hasn’t done him any favors there as they throw one grappler after the next at Johnson. While Maksum only landed two takedowns against the solid defense of Tyson Nam in his debut, he shot 11 times in that fight. We fully expect him to continue that here and he should have a much easier time getting Johnson to the mat. And unlike Johnson’s last four opponents, Maksum hasn’t shown any cardio issues in the past, which will make it harder for Johnson to simply outlast him and take over in the third round. That makes it hard to see many paths to victory for him and we like Maksum to win a wrestling-heavy decision and show Johnson the door from the UFC.
Our favorite bet here is “Azat Maksum DEC” at +110.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Maksum failed to score even remotely well in his recent UFC debut decision win that only returned 59 DraftKings points, but that was also a tough matchup against a veteran who had never been taken down before. The fact that Maksum attempted 11 takedowns at least shows some wrestling upside, even if he was only able to land two of those. Now he gets a much more favorable matchup against Charles Johnson, who’s been taken down 31 times in six UFC appearances. However, Johnson has also never been finished in his career, which makes Maksum a more interesting play on DraftKings than on FanDuel. It’s not impossible for him to score well on FanDuel without a finish, but it will be much tougher and will require a massive takedown total. Despite the mouthwatering matchup, we should see Maksum’s ownership come in pretty low after the pathetic score he put up in his last match, especially when you factor in his expensive price tag. That obviously adds to his tournament appeal and he looks like a solid play in both low-risk and high-risk contests on DraftKings. The odds imply Maksum has a 67% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Johnson has only put up one useful DFS score in his six UFC appearances, which is when he finished Jimmy Flick with ground and pound in the first round and scored 114 DraftKings points. He only scored 83 points in his lone decision victory, and has been dominated on the mat for the majority of the time in his losses. He hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat and can’t rack up strikes when he’s constantly being controlled. That makes it really tough to see him scoring well without a hail mary finish as he squares off against an undefeated fighter who’s typically looking to wrestle. Johnson needs to win this fight at all costs and even he predicted it would come by decision in a recent interview, so it’s really hard to get excited about playing him, even at his lower ownership. The odds imply Johnson has a 33% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Molly McCann
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Looking to bounce back from a pair of first round submission losses, McCann has decided to move down to 115 lb for the first time, as she blamed her size for her struggles on the mat at 125 lb. She faced a one-dimensional armbar specialist in Julija Stoliarenko in her last fight and somehow still managed to get armbarred in under two minutes. Just before that, McCann got absolutely dominated on the mat by Erin Blanchfield, who nearly finished the fight with ground and pound before locking up a kimura late in round one. Those two defeats snapped McCann’s three fight win streak that included two fairy tail knockouts in front of her home England crowd. McCann had fought to six straight decisions (4-2) leading up to those two early wins, after getting submitted in the second round of her 2018 UFC debut against Gillian Robertson. While McCann turns into some sort of alcoholic hobbit superhero when you stick her in front of her home crowd, she’s never finished anybody in the UFC outside of her home country. McCann lost to all five of the grapplers she’s faced in the UFC, but defeated all six of the strikers she’s faced. Both of her finishes in the UFC ended in spinning back elbows, while all three of her early UFC losses ended in submissions.
Now 13-6 as a pro, McCann has six wins by KO/TKO and seven decisions. While she’s never been knocked out herself, she’s been submitted three times and has three decision losses. While her last three fights all ended in round one, she had seen the second round in 11 straight fights leading up to that.
Overall, McCann brings a WWF vibe to the Octagon as she looks to put on a good show every time they lock her in the cage. She’s a high-volume striker who averages 5.68 SSL/min and 4.90 SS/min, and she also mixes in takedowns, averaging 1.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Her biggest weaknesses are getting taken down herself and operating off her back, which is why she’s struggled so much against grapplers. When she faces strikers and has the luxury of standing and banging or looking for takedowns of her own, she’s never lost a UFC fight. In her 11 UFC fights, McCann landed 13 of her 37 takedown attempts (35.1% accuracy) and went 5-0 in fights where she landed even a single takedown. On the other side of things, her opponents got her down on 17 of their 30 attempts (43.3% defense), and McCann went 1-5 in fights where she was taken down even once. It will be important to monitor McCann closely on the scale as she cuts down to 115 lb for the first time.
Diana Belbita
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Belbita is coming off a high-volume unanimous 30-27 decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who outlanded Belbita 141-99 in significant strikes. Kowalkiewicz also got the fight to the mat once, while Belbita landed two takedowns of her own. Just before that, Belbita won a decision against a low-level one-dimensional striker in Maria Oliveira who still took Belbita down twice. Just before that, Belbita lost a decision against another super low-level one-dimensional striker in Gloria de Paula, who was also able to take Belbita down once. That came just after Belbita notched her first UFC win in a decision over another terrible one-dimensional in Hannah Goldy, who took Belbita down twice. Belbita also got taken down 5 times in a decision loss in her UFC debut against Molly McCann and then got submitted in the first round of her next fight by a low-level armbar specialist, who Belbita foolishly took down.
Now 15-8 as a pro, Belbita has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decision victories. All four of her submission wins came by R2 armbar, while five of her six knockout wins occurred in round one, with the other ending in round three. She’s never been knocked out herself, but she’s been submitted four times and has four decision defeats. Three of her submission losses ended in first round armbars, with the other ending in a second round guillotine. Belbita started her career all the way up at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb in 2016, and then all the way to 115 lb in 2021. The level of competition she had been facing on the regional scene is an absolute joke so take all of her finishes with a grain of salt and both of her UFC victories went the distance.
Overall, Belbita is a Romanian kickboxer who trains in Canada. She’s dangerous on the feet and throws a good amount of striking volume, averaging 6.59 SSL/min and 6.43 SSA/min. However, she has terrible defensive wrestling and is a liability on the mat. In her six UFC fights, Belbita landed 5 of her 8 takedown attempts (62.5% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 11 of their 36 attempts (69.4%). The UFC has bent over backwards to give her the most favorable matchups imaginable and she’s still gotten taken down by a series of one-dimensional strikers. While she can win striking battles, she’s such a liability on the mat that she’ll never be able to beat any well-rounded fighters. At Media Day, the 27-year-old Belbita alarmingly said she was thinking about walking away from fighting after her last loss, but then the UFC offered her a rematch with McCann.
Fight Prediction:
Belbita will have a 3” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 33-year-old McCann.
These two originally squared off in 2019 in what was Belbita’s UFC debut and McCann’s fourth fight with the organization. In their first fight, McCann cruised to a unanimous 30-25 decision with the help of a point deduction for a Belbita fence grab. McCann nearly finished Belbita on the mat in a 10-8 second round. McCann finished ahead in significant strikes 113-98 and 5-1 in takedowns. That fight took place at 125 lb, whereas this next one will be at 115 lb. Belbita moved down to 115 lb in 2021, where she’s since gone 2-2, while this will be McCann’s first fight cutting down to 115 lb. So Belbita has shown she can successfully make the cut with no issues, but this will be McCann’s trial run at the new weight class.
McCann is 6-0 when facing strikers in the UFC, but 0-5 when going up against grapplers. So while we don’t know how her body will adjust to cutting the additional 10 lb, this is a great stylistic matchup for McCann as she faces a one-dimensional striker in Belbita. As long as the weight cut doesn’t destroy McCann, she should be able to lean on her wrestling whenever she wants in this fight, as that’s where Belbita has really struggled. It is possible that McCann decides to keep it standing to try and put on a show, as she’s always been an entertainer, but the wrestling will be there if she needs it. Because of that, the only way we see Belbita winning this fight is if the weight cut absolutely wrecks McCann and she shows up physically compromised. McCann nearly finished Belbita with ground and pound the first time they fought and we also wouldn’t be shocked to see McCann land her first career submission win here, as Belbita has been very prone to getting submitted in the past, specifically by armbar. McCann made a big deal about how she couldn’t hang on the mat with the larger grapplers at 125 lb due to the size difference, so maybe she’ll try to support that claim by dominating on the ground here at 115 lb. McCann did take a grappling match after her last fight and actually won via armbar, so clearly that’s a weapon in her arsenal. The most likely outcome is still for McCann to win by decision, but there are multiple paths to victory for her.
Our favorite bet here is “Molly McCann SUB” at +850.
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DFS Implications:
McCann has averaged 100 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins, despite five of those fights making it to the third round and four going the distance. Her last two wins were both by knockout, but each of those took place in front of her home English crowd, and no one feeds off their home crowd like the Meatball. Her other four UFC wins all went the distance, but she still averaged 95 points in those four decisions, returning DraftKings scores of 93, 109, 85, and 91. The one really impressive score came in her 2019 win over Belbita, where McCann was able to fill up the stat sheet. While that fight took place over four years ago and Belbita was making her UFC debut, that’s still encouraging for McCann’s scoring potential here. Belbita has struggled on the mat throughout her career and it’s a great matchup for McCann to find a ton of wrestling success. However, McCann is a striker at heart and we expect to see a mix of both striking and wrestling out of her. That leaves her with a really solid scoring floor, but a less certain ceiling that will rely on striking and takedown volume. At her high price tag, there are lots of ways for her to dominate the fight and still get priced out of tournament winning lineups, but a slate-breaking performance is also in play. Just keep in mind, this is the first time she’s ever cut down to 115 lb, which does add some volatility to the mix. The odds imply McCann has a 70% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Belbita has shown the ability to score decently in decision wins, with DraftKings totals of 91 and 89 in her two UFC victories, both of which went the distance. However, her wins don’t come often and she’s been extremely prone to getting taken down, controlled, and submitted. She’s a one-dimensional striker and has been terrible off her back and everyone who’s tried to take her down has been successful. McCann took her down five times in their first fight and nearly finished Belbita on the mat. Belbita was then mercifully given an incredibly easy strength of schedule in her next four matches, but still went just 2-2 over that stretch. She then got a tougher opponent in her last match against Karolina Kowalkiewicz and lost every round. Now she’ll face another tough test here. The only thing that Belbita really has going for her is the uncertainty surrounding McCann’s weight cut. Belbita does have pretty good striking and if McCann shows up depleted Belbita could win this fight on the feet. And at her cheap price tag, Belbita doesn’t need to put up a massive score to serve as a value play. The odds imply Belbita has a 30% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Gilbert Urbina
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Urbina is nine months removed from his first UFC win when he landed a second round TKO against a terrible Orion Cosce. Urbina really put it on Cosce in the first round and nearly got him out of there on the mat, as he pummeled him with ground and pound and also threatened submissions. Both guys slowed down in round two, but Cosce was complaining of a rib injury and once Urbina started connecting on him Cosce just went down and the fight was stopped. That win came 630 days after Urbina got submitted by Bryan Battle on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter. In fairness to Urbina, he took that fight on short notice after Tresean Gore dropped out. Urbina came out aggressive in the match and was able to take Battle down twice, but slowed down after the fast start and quickly got submitted once Battle took his back in round two. Those are Urbina’s only official two pro fights since 2019, but he did go 1-1 in his first two fights on TUF in early 2021, with a R1 submission win over an unbelievably terrible Michael Gillmore and a R2 KO loss to Tresean Gore. Just keep in mind, those two fights go down as exhibition matches and they don’t show up on his official pro record. Besides his recent win over Cosce, Urbina’s only other official win since 2017 came in a 2019 grappling-heavy decision with Combate Americas. Prior to that, he lost a decision to Sean Brady in a 2018 LFA fight.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Urbina has two wins by TKO, two submissions, and three decisions. One of his TKO wins came in the first round of a 2014 match in his second pro fight against a 1-0 opponent who then never competed again. His two submission wins occurred in 2015 and 2017, both by rear-naked choke in the first two rounds against inexperienced opponents who never won another pro fight. Two of Urbina’s three decision victories came in his first three pro fights against dubious competition in ultra low-level organizations that used amateur style three-minute rounds, opposed to five. The only time he’s ever won a fight that lasted longer than nine minutes was in a 2019 decision win. He’s been submitted once, which came in the second round of his UFC debut. His only other official loss was a 2018 decision to a really tough Sean Brady in the LFA, but Urbina did get knocked out in the second round of a TUF fight by Tresean Gore, although everything but the finale on TUF goes does as an exhibition match and doesn’t show up on your official pro record. Urbina also landed a first round submission in his first fight on TUF, but it came against the worst fighter on the show in a highly submittable Micheal Gillmore who was filling in on two day’s notice. Urbina’s first four pro fights all took place at 170 lb, before he moved up to 185 lb for his LFA debut in 2017, where he won a decision. He then dropped back down to 170 lb in his loss to Brady, before winning a decision in a 2019 175 lb Catchweight match. All of his TUF fights were at 185 lb, but then he dropped back down to 170 lb for his last fight.
Overall, Urbina is a tall fighter who doesn’t use his length especially well and is generally looking to grapple. He comes from a long line of losing TUF fighters, as both of his brothers also lost on the show. Urbina is generally looking to take the backs of his opponents, whether it’s on the feet or the mat, where he’ll then look for rear-naked chokes. However, he has poor defensive wrestling and is prone to getting taken down and also reversed on the mat. His striking defense has looked suspect and Gore dropped him multiple times before knocking him out early in round two on TUF. Urbina’s cardio has also looked dubious and he generally slows down after the first round. Between his two UFC fights, Urbina landed four of his eight takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while also getting taken down on the only attempt from his opponents.
Charles Radtke
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Radtke is coming off a lackluster decision win in his recent UFC debut against a one-dimensional striker in Blood Diamond. Radtke came in with a smart approach as he tried to outgrapple Diamond, however he struggled immensely to complete his takedowns. He spent most of the fight pushing Diamond up against the fence, completing just one of his six takedown attempts, but finishing with nearly 10 minutes of control time. The most frustrating part about that was that Radtke was winning the striking exchanges, but would immediately look to engage in the clinch every time he had Diamond hurt. Had Radtke kept that fight in space, he would have had a good shot at finishing things. Either way, that extended his winning streak to five. Just before joining the UFC, he won the CFFC Welterweight belt in a first round submission. That was just the second submission victory of his career and his first since his 2012 pro debut, and three of his last four early wins came by knockout. Radtke actually turned pro all the way back in 2012 and then had two fights canceled in 2013 before taking half a decade off before he returned in 2017. He went just 2-3 in his next five fights, including a decision loss to Austin Hubbard, before moving up from 155 lb to 170 lb in 2021. Since making the move up, he’s gone 5-0 with three finishes.
Now 8-3 as a pro, Radtke has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2021 R2 KO via body shot in his final fight at 155 lb before he moved up to 170 lb. His other two losses both went the distance.
Overall, Radtke is a powerful, but low-volume striker who has okay grappling skills but terrible offensive wrestling. He landed just one of his six takedown attempts in his recent UFC debut, after failing to even attempt a takedown in any of his previous four fights since he made the move up to 170 lb. However, we did see him look to grapple a little more when he was still fighting down at 155 lb earlier in his career. While he rarely lands any takedowns, when fights have ended up on the mat, he’s shown decent submission skills, and he’s actually a BJJ black belt and the jiu jitsu coach at Team Evolution Naples. That may be why he appears so comfortable hanging out in the clinch, but he never seems to disengage when he should. It will be interesting to see what he learned from his debut, as it was basically one learning experience after the next. Perhaps it was just the pressure of making his UFC debut in enemy territory, but he couldn’t get out of his own way and his decision making, poise, and fight IQ were all abysmal.
Fight Prediction:
Urbina will have a 6” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also six years younger than the 33-year-old Radtke.
This is a low-level matchup between two unproven fighters. Urbina is coming off the best performance of his career, but keep in mind it came against one of the worst fighters on the roster in Orion Cosce. Meanwhile, Radtke is coming off a really underwhelming decision win in his UFC debut where he made a ton of mental mistakes and also demonstrated how poor his offensive wrestling is. Those two outcomes naturally create a good sell-high spot on Urbina and buy-low spot on Radtke. While Urbina has competed at 185 lb in the past and is the taller and longer fighter, he doesn’t use his range especially well and he’s a complete liability when it comes to his striking defense and durability. Even though Radtke used to fight down at 155 lb, he’s the stronger and more powerful of the two and is super live to knock Urbina out or reverse the position on the mat and lock up a submission. While Radtke’s wrestling is terrible, he’s actually a BJJ black belt and the jiu jitsu coach at Team Evolution Naples, which is encouraging for his chances as he faces a grappler here. Radtke’s low fight IQ and inability to disengage from clinch exchanges are both concerning, but he has decent finishing ability and Urbina constantly slows down after the first round. We like Urbina to find some success with his grappling in round one, but then slow down and get finished by Radtke in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Charles Radtke ML” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Urbina is coming off his first UFC win where he put up a slate-breaking 126 DraftKings points as a slight underdog in a second round TKO win over a terrible Orion Cosce. While the results were great, it was far from a flawless performance. Urbina underwhelmed with his submission skills and was slowing down in round two before Cosce went down with a rib injury. Cardio has been an ongoing concern for Urbina and we often see him start fast, only to slow down in round two. He also has really suspect striking defense and durability, which was on full display if you watch back his fight against Tresean Gore on TUF. Despite the concerns we have with Urbina, the pace he sets in round one is exactly what you want for DFS and creates a ton of scoring potential all around in his fights. His grappling-heavy fighting style lends itself well to the DraftKings scoring system, while he’s more reliant on landing finishes on FanDuel. Urbina did look better in his last fight after returning to 170 lb than in his TUF fights at 185 lb, but it’s hard to know how much of that was because of who he was fighting. We’re still not sold on Urbina, but he is still just 27 years old and could be improving. After blowing up in his last fight, we expect the field to be chasing and Urbina should be popular here. That lowers his tournament appeal and creates an interesting leverage opportunity by being underweight on him. The odds imply Urbina has a 64% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Radtke won a decision in his recent UFC debut, but it was a terrible performance and he only scored 72 DraftKings points and 47 points on FanDuel. He showed zero awareness during or after the fight, as he was content with pushing his opponent up against the cage for most of the match and then lashed out at the crowd afterwards. While it would have been nice if he had shown the ability to make midfight adjustments to his game plan, he did at least come in with the right strategy of trying to wrestle against a one-dimensional striker, he just wasn’t able to execute it. He also nearly landed a knockout before idiotically resorting to the clinch, showing that his power is there, even if his brain isn’t. If his team can clean some things up, we could see a much improved version of him here. He’s getting his second straight favorable matchup, and while he wasn’t able to really capitalize on the first, he still has a high ceiling in this next fight. Urbina is chinny and has bad cardio, which is about all you can ask for with a cheap underdog like Radtke who throws with a ton of power. That last stinker of a performance should keep Radtke’s ownership down, despite this high-upside matchup. That just further adds to his tournament appeal and he looks like a great leverage play off of the popular Urbina. While he’s not a guy that will fill up the stat sheet, at his cheap price tag, he could potentially still serve as a value play in a decision win, although he’s definitely reliant on landing a finish to really score well. The odds imply Radtke has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Aliaskhab Khizriev
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)It’s been almost two years since Khizriev last competed, when he submitted Denis Tiuliulin in the second round of his March 2022 UFC debut. For context, Tiuliulin has been extremely prone to getting submitted throughout his career and was making his UFC debut on short notice. And prior to that, he took all of 2021 off, after landing a quick 50 second first round submission win on DWCS in 2020. Keeping his fighting once every two years streak alive, he also took all of 2019 off, following a 2018 58 second round one knockout victory. So he’s competed just three times since 2017 and two of those fights lasted less than a minute. Khizriev would have been more active, but five of his last six booked fights fell through.
Now 12-0 as a pro, Khizriev has five KO/TKO wins, four submission victories, and three decision wins. Seven of his finishes ended in the first round, while the other two occurred in the opening three minutes of round two. Also notable, two of his three decision victories came in two-round fights and only once in his career has he seen a third round. Khizriev originally went pro back in 2014 competing at 170 lb. He fought 11 of his first 12 fights at 170 lb, with the one exception coming when he dropped down to 155 lb for one fight in 2015. Following a 2018 R1 KO win over Rousimar Palhares, who was five years removed from fighting in the UFC and 38 years old at the time, Khizriev took two and half years off before moving up to 185 lb for a September 2020 appearance on DWCS. So only two of Khizriev’s 12 pro wins took place at 185 lb.
Overall, Khizriev is a runaway freight train on the mat if you let him get going, as he’ll pummel opponents with ground and pound, while also looking for submissions. However, we have serious concerns with his cardio and level of inactivity. He’s basically been fighting once every two years going back to 2018 and it’s really tough to stay sharp at that rate. And in his debut he was slowing down a lot in the second round, but so was his opponent so he was still able to find a finish. And at just 5’9”, Khizriev is definitely a meatball in the 185 lb division, which just adds to his conditioning concerns. Most of his career was spent at 170 lb and it seems like that’s where he should be fighting, he just got tired of cutting weight. Ultimately, Khizriev will look great when he’s able to get opponents down and finish them on the mat in the first two rounds, but it’s just a matter of time before he gasses out in round two and collapses in the later rounds. Between his DWCS match and his UFC debut, he landed 3 of his 5 takedown attempts (60% accuracy), while successfully defending the only attempt against him.
Makhmud Muradov
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Coming off a career performance, Muradov dominated Bryan Barberena for three rounds as he took Barberena down 13 times on 16 attempts and also outlanded him 54-28 in significant strikes. The only thing missing was a finish. That was a pivotal win for Muradov, who was coming off a pair of losses to grapplers in a decision against Caio Borralho and a second round submission against Gerald Meerschaert. Leading up to those losses, Muradov had won 14 straight fights from 2017 to 2021. He won a decision in his 2019 UFC debut and then followed it up with a pair of third round knockout wins in 2019 and 2021. All four of his UFC wins have come against struggling opponents where Muradov was the favorite.
Now 26-8 as a pro, Muradov has 17 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. He has one TKO loss on his record, but it notably resulted from a 2016 clavicle injury so it should be taken with a grain of salt. He’s also been submitted four times, but three of those came in his first eight pro fights from 2012 to 2013. His other three losses all went the distance. While 25 of Muradov’s 34 pro fights ended early, his last seven all made it out of the first round, with five of his last six making it to the third round, and three of those going the distance.
Overall, Muradov is a patient, powerful striker with good footwork and a background in kickboxing. He also showed improved wrestling in his last fight, although that was a dream matchup for him to excel on the mat. We’ve seen him struggle on the ground against grapplers in the past and that appears to be his biggest weakness. In his six UFC fights, he landed 16 of his 24 takedown attempts (66.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 4 of their 18 attempts (77.7% accuracy). At 6’2”, Muradov has good size for the division, but now he’ll face another dangerous grappler who will be looking to negate that size by putting him on the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Muradov will have a 5” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This is a good test for fight fighters, as we’ve yet to see Khizriev fight anyone decent in the UFC and Muradov still needs to prove he can win against dangerous grapplers. Khizriev is a fast starter who’s the most dangerous in round one and carries a lot of extra weight at 185 lb considering he’s only 5’9”. Muradov is just the opposite, as he’s a patient striker who lands more late knockouts and is in excellent shape and has good size for the division at 6’2”. We expect Khizriev to gas out in round two if he’s unable to finish Muradov in the opening round and a half, which should create a prime opportunity for Muradov to land another late knockout. While Muradov has been submitted four times in the past, all but one of those came very early in his career and he’s shown some improvements to his wrestling. It’s certainly possible that Khizriev can get him down and find his neck early, but we like Muradov’s chances of surviving the early onslaught and then coming back to land a knockout in the later stages of the fight once Khizriev is completely spent.
Our favorite bet here is “Makhmud Muradov R2 or R3 KO” at +750.
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DFS Implications:
Khizriev scored 104 DraftKings points in a second round submission win in his UFC debut, but that took place 23 months ago and he has been incredibly inactive going all the way back to 2018, with only three fights in the last 6+ years. We have serious concerns regarding his cardio and he was visibly tired early in the second round of his last fight. That was probably the easiest matchup he could have asked for as he took on a terrible Denis Tiuliulin, who has no ground game and was making his short notice UFC debut. And Khizriev still couldn’t finish him in round one and nearly ran out of gas before getting the job done in round two. Khizriev spent most of his career at 170 lb and only competes at 185 lb now because he doesn’t feel like cutting weight. He’s just 5’9” and will be at a height disadvantage against basically everyone he fights at 185 lb. With all that said, his scoring ceiling is undeniable as he comes into every fight looking to get opponents down and beat them up with relentless ground and pound, while fishing for rear-naked chokes. When successful, he looks practically unstoppable. However, it’s just a matter of time before he runs into someone he can’t put away and then we expect his cardio to be exposed and he’ll likely get finished himself. That makes him an incredibly volatile play with a low floor but a really high ceiling. This will be his toughest test to date, so there’s a good chance he gets exposed here, but Muradov has struggled against grapplers and has been submitted four times in the past. So you basically have to have exposure to both sides of this one and whoever wins will have a really good shot at ending up in the optimal lineup. The odds imply Khizriev has a 56% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Muradov is coming off a slate-breaking performance where he landed 13 takedowns and amazingly scored 149 DraftKings points in a three-round decision win. Just keep in mind, that came in an absolute dream matchup against an opponent in Bryan Barberena who can’t grapple to save his life and was moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb for the first time in the UFC. Prior to that, Muradov had never scored above 97 DraftKings points and only scored 78 points in his last third round knockout win. He also scored just 53 points in his first UFC decision victory. So he’s shown an incredibly wide range of scoring outcomes and he doesn’t land enough striking volume to score well without a finish or a massive amount of wrestling success. While his last matchup was geared for him to put on a wrestling clinic against a one-dimensional striker, now he’s facing a Russian wrestler and Muradov is far less likely to find much wrestling success. That will leave him reliant on finding a finish against the undefeated Khizriev. While that may sound like a daunting task, especially in this unfavorable stylistic matchup, Khizriev looks to have serious cardio concerns and now hasn’t fought in two years. While the first round should be dicey for Muradov, we like his chances of taking over in the later rounds if he can simply survive early. While a late round finish may not return a massive score, especially if he gets controlled for a period of time in round one, at his cheap price tag he doesn’t need to break the slate to sneak into winning lineups. One downside with him is that he should be very popular after his recent slate-breaking score, the line moving in his favor, and his very cheap price tag. There’s also the potential for him to get submitted in the first round and score zero points, so we can’t count on his floor. The odds imply Muradov has a 44% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Natalia Silva
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Still perfect in the UFC, Silva has won all four of her fights with the organization and 10 straight going back to her days on the Brazilian regional scene. In her last fight, she put on a striking clinic in a decision win over Andrea Lee, who was the first striker Silva faced in the UFC after defeating three straight wrestlers. Neither fighter attempted a takedown in that match, as Silva picked Lee apart from the outside for 15 minutes. Just before that, Silva notched a first round TKO against a terrible Victoria Leonardo, after landing a third round TKO against a debuting Tereza Bleda. Prior to those two finishes, Silva pulled off an upset in her 2022 UFC debut in a one-sided decision victory over Jasmine Jasudavicius. Silva took two and a half years off due to injuries just before joining the UFC, after landing six straight submissions, with five of those ending in armbars. Silva’s only loss in her last 14 fights came in a 2017 decision against UFC Strawweight Marina Rodriguez, when Silva was just 20 years old.
Now 16-5-1 as a pro, Silva has five wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, three decision victories, and 1 DQ win. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All three of her early losses occurred in her first four pro fights when she was just 18 years old. She got knocked out in the second round of her pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round in her third and fourth pro fights. Her only two losses since 2015 both ended in decisions and she showed her toughness going the distance against a 30-year-old Marina Rodriguez, when Silva was just 20 years old. Silva fought some at 115 lb early in her career when she was really young, but has been at 125 lb since 2018. Silva turned pro in 2015 just two months after her 18th birthday and had a rocky start to her career as she lost three of her first four fights. However, since then she’s gone 15-2-1 as she’s grown up inside of the cage.
Overall, Silva is a promising young prospect who’s done a good job of rounding out her game in recent years. She has a background in Taekwondo and she used to rely mostly on kicks and grappling to get by in fights, but she’s made serious improvements to her boxing. She still throws a high number of kicks as well, which can help her to find her range when she faces taller opposition, but she also has dangerous hands and great footwork. On the mat, she’s primarily looking to lock up armbars, something she had a lot of success with on the regional scene. In her four UFC fights, she landed two of her six takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while her opponents only got her down once on 14 attempts (92.8% defense). She’s impressively averaged 5.20 SSL/min and just 2.23 SSA/min.
Viviane Araujo
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Araujo recently snapped a two-fight losing streak with a close decision win over Jennifer Maia. All three judges scored the first round for Araujo, despite Maia finishing the round ahead 24-14, with no takedowns landed on either side. Araujo then leaned on her wrestling in round two to control Maia on the mat for almost the entire round, before predictably slowing down in the final five minutes, where Maia won round three. That’s the ninth straight decision that Araujo has been to, after she landed a third round knockout in her 2019 UFC debut all the way up at 135 lb. Interestingly, all seven of Araujo’s pre-UFC fights ended early (6-1). In her last two losses, Araujo failed to win any of the eight rounds against Amanda Ribas and Alex Grasso, albeit both really tough opponents. Araujo’s only other win in her last five fights was against Andrea Lee, who notably dropped Araujo in the first round before getting dominated on the mat. Just before that, Araujo lost a decision to Katlyn Chookagian in a fight where Araujo started fast but then slowed down late, which has been an ongoing issue for her.
Now 12-5 as a pro, Araujo has three wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decision victories. She’s been knocked out once (R1 2017), and has four decision losses. After fighting at 115 lb early in her career, Araujo made her UFC debut at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb for her second fight, where she’s stayed since. We’ve yet to see any of her 125 lb fights end early.
Overall, Araujo is a well rounded fighter who holds black belts in both BJJ and Luta Livre. She’s landed at least one takedown in 8 of her 10 UFC fights, with 19 total takedowns landed on 41 attempts (46.3% accuracy). On the other side of things, she has a solid 77.8% takedown defense and has only been taken down 6 times on 27 opponent attempts in the UFC. In addition to being a good grappler, she’s a crisp striker with good power. However, she tends to get hit a lot and averages 5.19 SSA/min, while landing 4.34 SS/min of her own. Amazingly, she’s been outlanded in significant strikes in eight of her last nine matches, with the one exception coming against an aging grappler in Roxanne Modafferi. The one other concern with Araujo is her cardio, and we’ve consistently seen her slow down late in fights. She lost the third round in her last three and four of her last five fights and also lost both of the championship rounds in her 2022 five-round fight against Alexa Grasso. Now 37 years old, it’s hard to see Araujo suddenly making major improvements to her cardio.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’4”, but Araujo will have a 3” reach advantage, while Silva is 11 years younger than the 37-year-old Araujo.
Araujo always has a pretty narrow path to victory when facing legitimate competition, as she’s become a decision grinder with cardio concerns who gets hit more than she lands. The striking differential for both fighters in this matchup paints a bleak picture for Araujo’s chances if it hits the scorecards, as she averages 4.34 SSL/min and 5.19 SSA/min, while Silva averages 5.20 SSL/min and 2.23 SSA/min. And while Araujo has generally done a decent job of mixing in some wrestling to make up for the striking deficit, Silva has really great footwork to evade the clinch, an elite 92% takedown defense, and is also dangerous looking for armbars on the mat. Silva has also shown the ability to go three hard rounds and pick her opponents apart from distance. Meanwhile, Araujo’s durability has come into question over her last four fights, as she’s been hurt at multiple points on the feet. While Araujo has only been finished once in her career, Silva has the ability to knock her out, lock up an armbar, or simply outpoint her way to a decision win. Silva will have the speed advantage and we expect her to rely on her footwork and quickness to circle the outside of the Octagon, control the distance, and pick Araujo apart. Once Araujo starts slowing down late in the second round, Silva should have some opportunities to finish her, although a Silva decision win is still the most likely outcome.
Our favorite bet here is “Natalia Silva KO” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Silva is on an impressive 10 fight winning streak and won all four of her UFC fights, including two by knockout, but only once has she topped 85 DraftKings points. She averaged 84 DraftKings points in her four UFC wins, but only scored 58 points in her most recent decision win, after totaling 85 points in her other decision victory. She also scored 85 points in a third round TKO win, with her one higher scoring performance (109 points) coming in a R1 TKO against a terrible Victoria Leonardo. While Silva easily cruised to victory in her recent win over Andrea Lee, in what was a major step up in competition for Silva, she didn’t come even remotely close to scoring well and will now be facing another tough opponent in Araujo, who’s only early loss of her career was in her fourth pro fight. However, we have seen Araujo hurt/dropped at multiple points recently and she’s now 37 years old and tends to gas out in the third round. That creates some potential for Silva to land the finish she needs to score well, although as the most expensive fighter on the card, a late round finish is less likely to be enough for her to crack winning tournament lineups. That leaves her reliant on landing a well timed knockout in the first two rounds to be useful. The odds imply Silva has a 75% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Araujo has averaged 81 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins, with the last five of those going the distance. She’s fought to nine straight decisions (5-4), after landing a third round knockout in her UFC debut, which took place at 135 lb. She scored a career best 98 DraftKings points in that finish, but failed to top 93 points in any of her last five wins. She scored between 65 and 71 points in three of her decision wins, although was able to score 91 and 93 points respectively in her two decision victories where she was able to land three or more takedowns. However, now she’ll face the 92% takedown defense of Silva and this looks like a tougher spot for Araujo to get her wrestling going. Silva has great footwork and is really quick, which will make it hard for Araujo to track her down. So while there’s obviously a chance that Araujo could serve as a value play in a decision win since she’s the cheapest fighter on the card, it’s not a good matchup for her to win or score well. Araujo’s cardio issues basically leave her reliant on winning each of the first two rounds and then surviving round three in tougher matchups like this. The odds imply Araujo has a 25% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Randy Brown
17th UFC Fight (11-5)This matchup was originally scheduled for December 16th but Brown pulled out after getting sick during fight week and they pushed it back seven weeks.
Brown is coming off a low-volume decision win over a fragile grappler in Wellington Turman, who’s now just 2-5 in his last seven fights, with three of those losses ending early. Brown spent way too much time in the clinch with Turman and failed to capitalize on Turman’s suspect chin. Prior to that, Brown got submitted by a striker in Jack Della Maddalena in just 133 seconds. That loss snapped a four fight winning streak for Brown, with the last three of those wins going the distance after he submitted Alex Oliveira in the first round of a 2021 match. So it’s been almost three years since Brown finished anybody, with his second most recent early win coming all the way back in 2019, in a second round submission over Warlley Alves. That’s the same year Brown landed his last knockout win, with his second most recent KO victory coming all the way back in 2016.
Now 17-5 as a pro, Brown has six wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and six decisions. Five of his six knockout wins came in the later rounds, including four in round two. Three of his five submission wins also occurred in the later rounds, with two ending in round two. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. While his last loss ended in round one, his three previous early losses occurred in the second round and amazingly 9 of his 22 pro fights have ended in round two (6-3). Only two of his last 16 fights were stopped in the first round, although those were also his last two fights to end early.
Overall, Brown is a BJJ brown belt and a well-rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and the mat. He landed nine takedowns in his 16 UFC fights, but has never landed more than two in a match. Because Brown is so tall, he has looked vulnerable to leg strikes as he has a wider stance and skinny legs. We saw Luque chew up Brown’s legs with 26 leg strikes before eventually finishing him late in round two of a 2020 match and Belal Muhammad landed 43 on his way to winning a decision over Brown back in 2017. And even in Brown’s last win, Wellington Turman landed 26 leg strikes. Brown is training in Philly now with Andre Petroski, so he may be putting in some additional wrestling work as he prepares to face a striker here.
Muslim Salikhov
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Approaching his 40th birthday, Salikhov has traded wins and losses over his last four fights and coming off a decision loss to Nicolas Dalby. Both fighters landed two takedowns, but Dalby finished with six and a half minutes of control time, while Salikhov was only able to accrue 55 seconds. Dalby also outlanded Salikhov 86-57 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Salikhov secured his first early win since 2019 in a third round knockout against a consistently compromised Andre Fialho. Despite landing the finish, Salikhov lost the first round after Fialho hurt him late in the round. However, he returned the favor in round two and at that point Fialho looked nearly out on his feet and it was just a matter of time before Salikhov finished him. Just prior to that win, Salikhov suffered the first knockout loss of his career in the second round against Li Jingliang, after winning five in a row before that, with the last three of those all going the distance. Salikhov’s only other UFC loss was a second round submission in his 2017 debut.
Now 19-4 as a pro, Salikhov has 13 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. Thirteen of his 15 finishes occurred in the first round, one ended in round two, and the other ended in round three. Three of his four career losses also ended early, with two submissions and one knockout. Both of his early UFC losses ended in the back half of round two.
Overall, Salikhov’s most dangerous weapon is his lightning fast spinning kick. He doesn’t throw much volume, averaging just 3.37 SSL/min, but when he does land he makes it count. He’s never landed more than 63 significant strikes in a UFC fight. He’s begun mixing in more takedown attempts, but still doesn’t offer a ton in terms of grappling. After failing to land a takedown in any of his first three UFC fights, he’s landed nine over his last six matches. Looking at his entire UFC career, he landed 9 of his 22 takedown attempts (40.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 23 attempts (73.9% defense). Salikhov is the most dangerous in round one and tends to slow down some later in fights and at 39 years old it’s fair to wonder how much he has left. Following his KO loss to Li Jingliang in his third most recent fight, Salikhov said he switched camps and began training at American Top Team, which he mentioned he thinks is the best gym to improve your wrestling.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 4” height advantage and 8” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 39-year-old Salikhov.
Neither of these two have been especially impressive lately when it comes to finishing fights, with Brown’s last four wins all going the distance as well as three of Salikhov’s last four victories. However, this looks like a decent spot for Brown to find some grappling success and it’s possible he could lock up a submission in the later rounds once Salikhov begins to slow down. It’s also not impossible that Salikhov could catch Brown with something and put him on skates, as Brown has been kind of chinny at times and is also prone to getting his lead leg beat up. However, Salikhov’s best days are clearly behind him and we’re not overly confident in him as he approaches his 40th birthday. The most likely outcome is still for Brown to win a decision, but if it does end early, a Brown late round submission would be the most likely outcome.
Our favorite bet here is “Randy Brown SUB” at +400.
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DFS Implications:
Brown has averaged just 81 DraftKings in his 11 UFC wins, topping 96 points just twice. His last four wins all went the distance, where he consistently scored between 70 and 77 DraftKings points. It’s been almost three years since he finished anybody and 10 of his 11 UFC wins made it out of the first round. Only once has he ever landed more than a single takedown in a fight, which was when he landed two in his last match. He also averages just 4.38 SSL/min and rarely puts up big striking totals. Even when given favorable matchups to find a finish, Brown rarely capitalizes, and it’s impossible to trust him at his high salary on this slate. However, he is facing a 39-year-old striker, so it’s possible Brown could get his grappling going more here and find a submission. Even then, there’s no guarantee he would score enough to be useful, as he would still have to outperform the other high priced options and we’ve seen him consistently struggle to score well with later round finishes in the past. So it’s probably best to treat him as a R1 or bust option. Adding to his tournament appeal, he’s been consistently low owned in his last four fights. The odds imply Brown has a 70% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Salikhov’s low-volume striking and questionable cardio generally leaves him reliant on landing a first round knockout to really score well, and his one second round finish in the UFC scored just 91 DraftKings points and his lone third round knockout was only good for 82 points. He also only averaged 66 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, failing to top 80 points in any of those. The only time he has scored above 91 points was in a 2019 first round KO win, which is also the only time any of his nine UFC fights ended in the first round. So similar to Brown, Salikhov’s fights almost always see a second round, which is problematic for his DFS scoring potential. However, at his cheaper price tag he may not need to put up a huge score to be useful, although he generally slows down later on in fights. Ultimately, we’re treating him as a KO or bust option regardless of how cheap he is and at 39 years old it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in him. The odds imply Salikhov has a 30% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Renato Moicano
15th UFC Fight (9-5)Coming off a 15-month layoff, Moicano hasn’t competed since November 2022 when he submitted Brad Riddell in the first round. He had then been scheduled to face Arman Tsarukyan in April, but ended up pulling out with a knee injury that required surgery. In his last fight, Moicano took on a one-dimensional striker in Brad Riddell, yet surprisingly was content with keeping the fight standing early on, and was actually winning on the feet. He used his range well to pick apart the stalkier Riddell from the outside and when Riddell tried to close the distance late in the round, Moicano then finally looked to initiate the grappling, where he was able to work his way to Riddell’s back and lock up a rear-naked choke. Moicano’s second most recent fight was almost two years ago, when he stepped into a five-round fight against RDA on short notice and got dominated for the entire match. That came just a few weeks after Moicano submitted Alexander Hernandez in the second round. Similar to the Riddell fight, Moicano was winning on the feet and actually had Hernandez so hurt that he tried to take Moicano, only to get reversed and have Moicano secure another rear-naked choke victory. That was Moicano’s second straight R2 rear-naked choke win after he finished Jai Herbert in his previous fight, following a first round knockout loss against Rafael Fiziev. Amazingly, Moicano’s last five wins all ended in rear-naked chokes in the first two rounds, including three in round one.
Now 17-5-1 as a pro, Moicano has never knocked anybody out, but has 10 submission wins, and seven decision victories. Four of those submissions came in round one, five ended in round two, and the other occurred in the third round of his 2010 pro debut. All 10 of his submission wins ended in rear-naked chokes. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once (R3 2017), and has one decision loss, which occurred in his short notice five-round fight against RDA. All three of his KO losses occurred in under six minutes, with two ending in round one. Moicano fought at 145 lb until 2020 when he moved up to 155 lb. He’s gone 4-2 since moving up a weight class, with all four of those wins ending by submission in the first two rounds. Eight of his last nine fights ended in either submission wins (5) or knockout losses (3).
Overall, Moicano is a BJJ black belt and a great grappler, but has the IQ of a bagel and often fails to take the path of least resistance. He’s shown a suspect chin at times, although more so when he was fighting down at 145 lb and he’s looked more durable in recent fights. He also has an overinflated ego that gets him into trouble at times. With that said, he’s been doing a better job of using his grappling recently and he’s landed 8 takedowns on 19 attempts since moving up to 155 lb, after landing just one total takedown on just two attempts in his last four fights at 145 lb. He has a 46% career takedown accuracy and a 74% defense, while averaging 4.75 SSL/min and 4.07 SSA/min. He won the last four fights where he landed a takedown, while going just 1-4 in the last five matches where he failed to land any. And that one win was in his last fight where he shot for a takedown but then ended up on the back of Riddell without officially securing a takedown. Moicano’s striking and durability both looked improved in his last couple of wins, although that could lull him into a false sense of confidence on the feet in this upcoming matchup against a dangerous striker in Dober.
Drew Dober
23rd UFC Fight (13-8, NC)After suffering a rare knockout loss against Matt Frevola last May, Dober bounced back with a first round knockout of his own against Ricky Glenn in October. Glenn stood no chance against Dober, who outlanded Glenn 30-5 in striking before the fight was stopped midway through the first round as Dober pummeled Glenn’s head into the mat after knocking him down. That came after Dober suffered his first knockout loss in the UFC and only the second in his 40-fight pro career, with the other occurring all the way back in 2011. The loss to Frevola was arguably a quick stoppage and we’ve seen Dober recover from worse in a fight. Prior to that loss, Dober knocked out three straight opponents and he’s only required the judges once in his last 11 fights, which was when he lost a 2021 decision to Brad Riddell after getting taken down five times. His previous four losses all ended in submissions, with the last two of those coming against Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. Dober’s last seven wins all ended in knockouts and the last time he won a decision was in 2018. While Glenn was a step down in competition for Dober, his previous four finishes were against more dangerous opponents in Bobby Green, Rafael Alves, Terrance McKinney, and Alexander Hernandez.
Now 27-12 plus a No Contest as a pro, Dober has 14 wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and seven decision victories. All of his submission wins occurred early in his career, with the last of those coming in 2014. Of his 14 knockout wins, six came in round one, six ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, submitted four times, and has six decision losses. Five of his six early losses occurred in the first two rounds, with the one exception being a R3 arm-triangle submission loss to Islam Makhachev.
Overall, Dober is a powerful and durable brawler who generally comes out ahead in firefights, but often struggles against grapplers. His background is primarily in Muay Thai and Taekwondo, where he’s a black belt, although he is also a BJJ brown belt for what it’s worth. While Dober has six submission wins on his record and wrestled some in high school, he’s definitely not a grappler. In his last 10 fights, Dober has been taken down 14 times on 30 opponent attempts (53.3% defense), while landing one of his own seven attempts (14.3% accuracy). Frevola is the only fighter since 2016 to defeat Dober without taking him down. While Dober relies almost entirely on his striking, he still only averages 4.58 SSL/min and he’s only landed more than 73 significant strikes once in 22 Octagon appearances, which was in a 2018 decision win over Frank Camacho, who averages an eye-popping 7.44 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Moicano will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being a year younger than the 35-year-old Dober.
This is your classic grappler versus striker battle and the outcome will depend on where the fight takes place. Moicano’s last five wins all ended in rear-naked chokes in the first two rounds, while Dober’s last last seven wins all ended in knockouts. Dober has been prone to getting submitted throughout his career, with four submission losses on his record, while Moicano was knocked out in three of his five losses. So it couldn’t set up much better for either guy, although this one seems so straightforward and obvious that it almost feels like a trap that’s destined to end in some bizarre low percentage outcome. With that said, we’re still expecting either a Moicano submission win or a Dober knockout victory and we’re in line with the oddsmakers as we lean slightly towards Moicano’s side of things. It would be surprising to see this fight make it to the third round and we like it to end in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “Renato Moicano SUB” at +160.
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DFS Implications:
Moicano has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins, with his last five wins all ending by submission in the first two rounds. While he’s never scored more than 77 DraftKings points in a decision, he’s only been to the judges once since 2018. Eight of his last nine fights ended in either a submission win (5) or a knockout loss (3), so we’re almost always looking to target both sides of his matchups. This fight is no different and Dober has been prone to getting submitted, which just adds to Moicano’s appeal. The potential for Moicano to get knocked out does leave him with literally a zero point floor, making him unplayable in low-risk contests, but his upside is undeniable and that’s all we care about in tournaments. Keep in mind, Moicano is coming off knee surgery and a 15-month layoff, so it’s possible he shows up with some ring rust, which just adds some additional volatility to an already volatile matchup. While Moicano didn’t quite crack the century mark in either of his last two finishes, at his reasonable price tag he may not need to put up a huge score to sneak into winning lineups. However, a poorly timed early second round finish is one way this fight fails. The odds imply Moicano has a 62% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Dober has averaged 99 DraftKings points in his 13 UFC victories, with 10 of those wins coming early. He showed a decent floor in his three decision wins, averaging 89 DraftKings points in those fights, but has never scored more than 92 points without a finish. While his first five early wins in the UFC all ended in round one, three of his last five finishes came in the later rounds, and he’s never scored more than 96 DraftKings points in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes. However, that’s more of a concern when he’s priced as a large favorite and he checks in as a slight underdog here. At his lower salary he doesn’t need a massive score to end up in winning lineups, leaving him with a wider range of acceptable outcomes. Moicano was knocked out in under six minutes in three of his last four losses, although two of those early losses were when he was still cutting down to 145 lb. He’s only been finished once in his six fights since moving up to 155 lb, while he’s submitted four of his opponents over that stretch. Dober has been prone to getting submitted throughout his career, and he’ll have a non-existent floor in this volatile matchup, but he also has a solid shot at landing a knockout. Whoever wins should score well, barring a poorly timed early second/third round finish or an unlikely decision, just keep in mind both guys will be popular. The odds imply Dober has a 38% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Nassourdine Imavov
8th UFC Fight (4-2, NC)Imavov’s last fight ended in an unfortunate No Contest following an accidental clash of heads that caused a large cut above the eye of his opponent, Chris Curtis. Imavov was winning the fight up to that point, as he more than doubled Curtis up in significant strikes at 57-26. Imavov also became the first fighter to ever take Curtis down, landing three of his four attempts in just a round and a half, after Curtis defended all 35 of the attempts against him in his first six UFC fights. Following that No Contest, Imavov had been booked to face Ikram Aliskerov in October, but ended up pulling out of the fight two weeks prior. Before he fought Curtis, Imavov lost to Curtis’ teammate Sean Stricklan in a January 2023 five-round decision. Imavov had been set to face Kelvin Gastelum there, but Gastelum dropped out and Strickland stepped in on short notice. Due to the short notice nature, that fight took place up at 205 lb, instead of 185 lb where Imavov and Strickland both normally compete. After originally preparing to compete at 185 lb on that night, Imavov only weighed in at 194 lb following the opponent and weight class change, while Strickland tipped the scale at 204 lb. While Strickland was the one filling in on short notice, he still set the pace in that fight and outlanded Imavov 182-123 in significant strikes in what played out as basically a pure striking battle with Imavov failing to land his only takedown attempt and Strickland taking Imavov down once on his only attempt. Prior to that, Imavov won a decision over Joaquin Buckley after landing a pair of second round TKOs against Edmen Shahbazyan and Ian Heinisch, which are his only two finishes in the UFC. Imavov’s first two UFC fights both went the distance, with a win over a terrible Jordan Williams in his 2020 debut, followed by a wrestling-heavy decision loss to Phil Hawes, who took Imavov down four times and controlled him for 11 minutes. All seven of Imavov’s UFC fights made it to the second round, with four going the distance.
Now 12-4 plus a No Contest as a pro, Imavov has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a R1 guillotine choke in his 2016 pro debut. His other three losses all ended in decisions. Imavov notably fought most of his career at 170 lb before moving up to 185 lb when he joined the UFC. All nine of his early wins ended in the first two rounds, with the first seven finishes of his career coming in round one and the last two ending in round two.
This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Imavov’s career. The first was just over a year ago when Imavov lost a decision to Sean Strickland in January 2023. While Imavov looked to tire as that fight went on, he did narrowly win the fifth round on all three scorecards after losing the first four rounds.
Overall, Imavov is a crisp counter striker who can also mix in some grappling at times. He was born in Dagestan, but moved to France when he was nine, which is where he still lives. He trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and seems to be constantly improving, which makes sense considering he’s still just 28 years old. He has a solid left jab and at 6’3” he has decent size for the Middleweight division, which makes it tougher to close the distance on him. One concern with him is his cardio, and he generally starts slowing down some by the third round. Another concern is that we’ve seen him get controlled along the fence at times in the past, which is how he lost to Phil Hawes. In Imavov’s seven UFC fights, Imavov landed 7 of his 22 takedown attempts (31.8% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 22 attempts (72.7% defense). He likes to threaten guillotines when opponents try to take him down, although we haven’t seen him submit anybody since 2019.
Roman Dolidze
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Dolidze will be looking to bounce back from a March 2023 three-round decision loss to Marvin Vettori that snapped a four fight winning streak for Dolidze, with the last three of those ending in knockouts. He failed to land his only takedown attempt against Vettori and the fight remained entirely on the feet, with Vettori finishing ahead in significant strikes 106-71. Following that loss, Dolidze had been booked to face Derek Brunson in November and then Jared Cannonier in December, but both opponents dropped out. Prior to losing to Vettori, Dolidze stepped in on short notice and defeated Jack Hermansson in a second round ground and pound TKO, after knocking out Phil Hawes in the first round. In something you don’t see very often, Dolidze also basically submitted Hawes in that fight with a leg lock, but Hawes never actually tapped and the ref let the fight go on after Dolidze appeared to shred Hawes’ knee. That came just after Dolidze knocked out Kyle Daukaus in just 73 seconds.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Dolidze has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. All three of his submission wins came in 81 seconds or less in his first three pro fights and his last seven finishes all ended in knockouts, with four in round one, two in round two, and one in round three. His first three UFC knockout wins all ended in round one, while the most recent occurred in round two. He’s never been finished himself, with both of his career losses going the distance. Dolidze competed at 205 lb until 2021, when he dropped down to 185 lb despite being 2-0 in the UFC. Despite losing his first fight at 185 lb, he’s remained at the weight class and has now won four of his last five fights at the lighter weight class.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Dolidze’s career, but his first in the UFC. The first time he was scheduled to go five rounds was in 2018 for the vacant WWFC Light Heavyweight belt, where he won in a second round knockout. He then defended the belt with a third round knockout in his only other scheduled five-round fight. So Dolidze has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes and his championship round cardio remains a mystery.
Overall, Dolidze is a powerful striker with a grappling background who can finish fights both on the feet and the mat. He loves looking for heel hooks, but hasn’t officially finished a fight with one since 2017 in his second pro match. However, he used a leg lock to completely shred Phil Hawes’ knee in 2022, even if that ultimately went down as a knockout. Dolidze only averages 3.02 SSL/min and 3.01 SSA/min and has never landed more than 71 significant strikes in a fight. In his eight UFC fights, he landed 9 of his 18 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 12 attempts (33.3% defense). All five of the opponents who tried to take him down were successful. Dolidze trains at Xtreme Couture with Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland, who were the last two fighters to take on Imavov, so their team has plenty of experience preparing for him.
Fight Prediction:
Imavov will have a 1” height advantage, but Dolidze will have a 1” reach advantage. Imavov is seven years younger than the 35-year-old Dolidze.
This is kind of a bizarre main event, as neither of these two appear built for longer fights. They’ve both historically been the most dangerous in the first two rounds of fights and Imavov has never finished anybody beyond the 10 minute mark, while Dolidze has only accomplished that feat once. Conversely, Dolidze has never seen the fourth round, while Imavov has only seen it once. So things could get sloppy if this makes it to the back half, which seems like a very real possibility considering Dolidze has never been finished and Imavov’s only early loss was a guillotine in his 2016 pro debut. They’re both patient counter strikers, which when combined with their uncertain cardio could result in a slower pace. Dolidze also comes from a grappling background and we’ve seen Imavov get controlled at times in the past, so Dolidze could also slow things down in the clinch or on the mat. That looks like his best path to victory, as Imavov is a better striker, even if Dolidze is the more powerful of the two. Dolidze was competing at 205 lb until 2021 and Imavov fought at 170 lb until 2020 when he joined the UFC, and we expect that to translate to Dolidze being stronger in the clinch. While he didn’t look to initiate much wrestling in either of his last two matches, he’s shown at multiple points in previous UFC fights that he has no problem leaning heavily on his grappling background. However, his sporadic game plans make it tougher to confidently predict what his game plan will be. And if he can’t find grappling/clinch success, then Imavov should be able to outland him in space. When you combine that with the cardio questions on both sides, this sets up as a more volatile matchup that could go either way. However, we see more finishing upside for Dolidze and it’s also possible he could outgrapple his way to a decision victory. So we’d rather take the plus money on him than lay the chalk on Imavov. Ultimately, we’re expecting a slower paced fight and wouldn’t be surprised to see this end in a close decision that comes down to the grappling of Dolidze versus the striking of Imavov. But if it does end early, look for it to be from a Dolidze knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Roman Dolidze ML” at +150.
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DFS Implications:
Imavov has yet to score more than 98 DraftKings points in any of his seven UFC fights, despite two of his four wins ending in second round TKO victories. He’s never finished anybody beyond the 10 minute mark and we’ve seen him tire later in fights. He only scored 71 and 74 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins and also scored just 51 points in a five-round decision loss to Sean Strickland. That’s the only time Imavov has ever seen the championship round and even if the decision had gone his way, he still only would have scored 81 DraftKings points and 94 points on FanDuel. Now Imavov gets a slower paced matchup against a dangerous grappler who also has knockout power and has never been finished. None of that is encouraging for Imavov’s upside. However, Dolidze has never been past the third round and we don’t know what his cardio will look like if this hits the championship rounds, which at least adds some volatility and theoretical upside for Imavov if Dolidze gasses out. While Imavov isn’t exorbitantly priced, there are still plenty of ways he lands a mid round finish or wins a low volume decision and doesn’t score enough to be useful. The odds imply Imavov has a 59% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Dolidze has averaged 99 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with four of those ending in knockouts in the first two rounds. Even in his two decision victories, he still averaged 89 DraftKings points through his grappling and he’s shown a solid floor when he wins. He’s also never been finished in his career, so even when he loses you’ll still get something out of him. However, he’s never topped 92 DraftKings points in a fight that made it out of the first round, and now he’s facing an opponent who’s only early loss was a submission in his 2016 pro debut. So it doesn’t look like a great spot for Dolidze to find a finish and we have no idea how his cardio will hold up if this makes it to the championship rounds, as he’s never been past the third round before. However, Imavov tends to slow down after the second round, and it’s possible Dolidze can outlast him and either find a late finish or outgrapple his way to a decision win. The potential for him to grapple makes him a more interesting play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but his cheaper price tag leaves him in play on both sites. The odds imply Dolidze has a 41% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Randy Brown OVER 14.75 Min
