Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.
Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Randy Costa
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Looking to bounce back from a pair of second round TKO losses, Costa has been the most binary fighter we’ve seen in a while, with all six of his wins coming in round one and all three of his losses ending in round two. After getting finished by Adrian Yanez in his second most recent fight, Costa tried to change up his ultra aggressive approach in his last match, but the results were the same as Costa got finished in the second round by Tony Kelley. Prior to that, Costa had landed a pair of first round finishes after getting submitted in the second round of his UFC debut against Brandon Davis. All four of his pre UFC fights ended in first round knockout wins.
In his last fight, we saw Costa come in with more of a measured approach for the first time in his career as it was actually Kelley who was being the aggressor. Going into the fight, Costa claimed he was going to pace himself more after he gassed out in each of the two times he had previously seen a second round and he appeared to be true to his word. Costa appeared kind of lost after straying from his past identity of being a first round brawler, and that played right into Kelley’s hand who was able to command the fight from the start. After Costa threw 123 strikes in the first round against Yanez (landing 57), Costa only attempted 37 first round strikes against Kelley, landing just 16. Kelley was able to grind Costa up against the cage and wear on his already limited gas tank. Costa shot for a desperation takedown late in round two, but Kelley was able to shove him to the mat and get on top, where he began to beat him up and land heavy elbows until the fight was eventually stopped in the final minute of the round. The fight ended with Kelley ahead 82-31 in significant strikes and 129-32 in total strikes.
Still just 6-3 as a pro, Costa has six first round KO wins, two second round KO losses, and one second round submission loss. Two of Costa’s four pre-UFC wins came up at 145 lb, before he dropped down to 135 lb for good when he joined the UFC. He also faced highly dubious competition prior to joining the UFC, who entered his fights with records of 0-4, 0-0, 5-9 and 0-1. Then he faced three straight opponents with losing UFC records before finally getting a legitimate opponent in Yanez.
Overall, Costa generally doesn’t handle adversity very well and once fights get into the second round he generally fades at the first sign of trouble as he begins looking for a way out. He has never won a fight that lasted longer than 135 seconds, but he’s also only been in three that made it past that mark. Costa generally does a great job of maximizing his already long reach with a dangerous jab followed by sneaky head kicks. While Costa’s last two opponents were extremely durable, now he’ll face a fighter that has been finished in five of his six career losses.
Guido Cannetti
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Coming off his first win since 2018, the 42 year old Cannetti has lost three of last four and four of last six fights. Prior to his recent R1 TKO win, he hadn’t finished an opponent since 2013 and hadn’t knocked anybody out since 2012. Looking back to his second most recent fight, Cannetti recently lost a decision to short notice replacement Mana Martinez, who missed weight by 4 lb and was making his UFC debut a week after his coach died. Cannetti came out and won the first round as he fired off numerous heavy kicks as he generally likes to. However, Cannetti began to slow down after round one and Martinez outlanded him over the final 10 minutes to win a split decision. The fight ended with Martinez ahead in significant strikes 79-66, in total strikes 88-68, and in takedowns 2-0.
In his last fight, Cannetti got pushed up against the cage early on by Kris Moutinho, but began landing heavy shots of his own two minutes into the round. As he began teeing off on Moutinho, the ref jumped and stopped the fight way too early it appeared, with guys still on their feet. The fight ended with Cannetti ahead 28-11 in striking.
Now 9-6 as a pro, Cannetti has four wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. All seven of his finishes occurred in the first round. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2020), submitted four times (twice in R1 & twice in R2), and has one decision defeat. All four of his submission losses occurred in the first two rounds, with three coming by rear-naked choke and one ending in a triangle choke. All seven of his pre-UFC fights notably ended in the first round (6-1).
Overall, Cannetti has a Muay Thai background, but averages just 3.52 SSL/min and is generally just looking to land big leg kicks or looping punches in the first round before he tires out. He’ll also mix in occasional takedowns, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013.
Fight Prediction:
Costa will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. He’s also 14 years younger than the 42-year-old Cannetti.
Both of these two are known for starting fast with 100% of their finishes coming in the first round, so it will be interesting to see how this fight plays out if it makes it to round two. Costa has historically turned into a pumpkin in fights that have lasted longer than five minutes, while Cannetti has at least gone 2-1 in decisions even if he’s never finished an opponent in the later rounds. We did see Costa come into his last fight with a more patient approach, but he still gassed out and got finished in round two, while not giving himself much of a chance to win in round one. It will be interesting to see if he reverts back to his more aggressive past self or if he continues to try and pace himself after the recent failure. If he comes in more aggressive, we like Costa’s chance of landing a first round knockout, but if this fight creeps into the second round we like Cannetti’s chances of finding a finish of his own. We’ll still say Costa lands a first round knockout, but he’s a tough guy to trust.
Our favorite bet here is “Cannetti R2 Win” at +1300.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Costa has fought nine times as a pro and has six first round wins and three second round losses. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than two rounds, which means we’re always looking to target both sides of his matches in DFS. He put up DraftKings scores of 127 and 119 in his two UFC wins, while his opponents scored 118, 106, and 87 in his three losses. Costa averages 6.73 SSL/min (most on the slate) and 7.59 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate). We’ve yet to see anyone land a takedown in any of his UFC fights, although there have only even been two attempts, and Costa offers nothing in terms of grappling. So if this somehow lasts longer than expected, we don’t see Costa scoring well in a decision, but it’s hard to know what that fight would even look like. We’re really just playing Costa for his first round finishing ability. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 59% chance to land a finish, and a 38% chance it comes in round one.
Cannetti is coming off a career performance that was aided by a quick stoppage from the ref where Cannetti scored 101 DraftKings points in a standing first round TKO. Prior to that, he had failed to top 73 DraftKings points in any of his first seven UFC fights. He had also never landed a finish in the UFC, with his earlier two wins both going the distance, where he scored 64 and 73 points in a pair of decisions. While he’s typically not a guy we’re interested in playing, Costa tends to slip into a coma in round two, making a second round finish for his opponents nearly automatic. Sure it’s possible Costa will change his approach and or training to improve his cardio, but even after he sort of attempted to slow things down in his last fight he still gassed out in round two. That makes this an interesting spot for Cannetti, just keep in mind that all seven of his career finishes have come in the first round and he tends to slow down in round two as well. That at least adds some uncertainty here as there’s always the chance both guys gas out in round two and end up doing nothing down the stretch. While that’s not what we’re expecting to happen, it is a remote possibility. With that said, we still like targeting this fight and think Cannetti has a good shot at landing a second round finish if he can survive the first round. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Julija Stoliarenko
6th UFC Fight (1-4)After losing her first four UFC fights, Stoliarenko saved her job with a R1 armbar win 42 seconds into her last fight against Jessica-Rose Clark. Stoliarenko originally made her UFC debut back in 2018 on the The Ultimate Fighter finale against Leah Letson, who coincidentally had been scheduled to face Chelsea Chandler here before she dropped out and Stoliarenko stepped in. Following that loss, Stoliarenko returned to the regional scene for two years before getting a second shot in the UFC. However, she then lost three straight fights against a trio of UFC veterans in Yana Kunitskaya, Julia Avila, and Alexis Davis.
Her last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but both ladies came out swinging, landing multiple early strikes. Stoliarenko then took Clark down less than 30 seconds into the fight and immediately locked up an armbar and dislocated Clark’s elbow. The fight ended with Clark ahead 9-6 in striking, while Stoliarenko landed her lone takedown attempt and used it to finish the fight.
Now 10-6-2 as a pro, nine of Stoliarenko’s 10 career wins have come by first round armbar, with her only other victory ending in a 2020 Invicta five-round split decision. She’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has three decision losses. She had a strange start to her career, with two late round TKO losses and a pair of draws in her first five pro fights. She’s gone just 1-6-2 in fights that have made it past the first round.
Overall, Stoliarenko is a BJJ black belt and an armbar specialist. She has okay striking, but has looked very hittable, as she averages 2.75 SSL/min and 4.30 SSA/min. Everyone in the world knows her gameplan, as she is always looking to get fights to the ground to hunt for armbars, which eliminates the element of surprise for her. Nevertheless, she landed another one in her last fight and got close in some of her previous UFC matches. Stoliarenko has trained some with Tabatha Ricci, who was actually in her corner for her last fight and will now be sharing a card with her.
Chelsea Chandler
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Chandler had originally been matched up against Leah Letson, but she withdrew back in July and Stoliarenko stepped in with two months to prepare. Chandler will be making her UFC debut on a four fight winning streak, but has somewhat limited pro experience, with just five fights under her belt. She’s coming off a decision win, but landed a pair of finishes just before that.
In her last fight, Chandler got the fight to the ground 30 seconds in, but wasn’t able to do a ton with the position before her opponent, Courtney King, eventually escaped and the two returned to swinging on the feet. As Chandler pushed King up against the cage, King tried to take Chandler down, but Chandler reversed the attempt and ended up in top position. She again wasn’t able to do much with the position and eventually the fight returned to the feet. Chandler continued to rack up control time along the cage and land shots as she easily won the first round. It looked like she slipped as she absorbed a shot early in round two, which made it look like more than it was, but that also upped the pace as King looked to capitalize on the misstep. Chandler recovered quickly and resumed her cage control. The judges surprisingly gave King round two, but Chandler secured the decision win by getting the fight back to the ground early in round three and controlling King for essentially the entire round.
Still just 4-1 as a pro, Chandler has one win by TKO, one by submission, and two decision victories. Her only loss came in a decision in her 2018 pro debut and she’s won four straight since. Two of her last three wins have come early and she’s never faced an opponent with a losing record. In fact, her first four opponents all entered with undefeated records, albeit none with more than four pro fights. Chandler’s first three pro fights were at 135 lb, before she moved up to 145 lb for her last two matches. She’ll now be making her debut at a 140 lb Catchweight.
Overall, Chandler is a brawling bully who will throw down on the feet but also looks to take opponents down and finish them on the mat. She has spent time training at Tiger Muay Thai as well as the Nick Diaz Academy, and fights out of Stockton. She’s only a BJJ purple belt, but uses her strength well in the grappling exchanges. She can get reckless on the feet, but has heavy hands and typically gets the best of wild exchanges and lands a good amount of volume. She’ll also drop thudding elbows on the mat and looks to inflict damage with every strike she throws.
Fight Prediction:
Chandler will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This sets up as an absolute banger between two reckless strikers who are both willing to throw down on the feet but also both like to take opponents down. Stoliarenko is more reliant on her grappling and is also a newly minted BJJ black belt, while Chandler is just a purple belt. Stoliarenko’s best path to victory is no secret, as she’ll constantly be looking to set up an armbar. Chandler’s takedown defense has looked pretty solid, but we also haven’t seen it tested a ton, so it’s still somewhat of an unknown when it comes to how it will hold up at the UFC level. If Chandler can keep the fight standing, we like her chances to outland Stoliarenko, do more damage, and potentially find a knockout. However, if Stoliarenko can get the fight to the ground early, there’s also a good chance she locks up another armbar. The oddsmakers appropriately have this lined as a near pick’em, and we agree it could go either way. With that said, as long as Chandler can avoid getting armbarred, we like her to win the fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at +145.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Stoliarenko is coming off her first UFC win, where she landed an armbar 42 seconds into the first round and scored 123 DraftKings points and 115 points on FanDuel. She’ll now face a UFC newcomer after taking on a series of veterans in her previous four matches. Stoliarenko has historically been a R1 armbar or bust play, with 9 of her 10 career wins coming by R1 armbar, and she’s gone just 1-6-2 in fights that have made it past the first round. However, this sets up as an uptempo brawl as long as it stays standing, and at her reasonable price tag, Stoliarenko also has the ability to score well in a volume-driven decision where she also mixes in some grappling. We expect Stoliarenko’s ownership to rise following her recent scoring explosion, but she was just 12% owned on DraftKings the last time she fought and she’s still not projected to be highly owned here. This looks like a great fight to target and we expect whoever wins to score well. The odds imply Stoliarenko has a 51% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Chandler’s aggressive fighting style is perfectly suited to DFS production, as she’s looking to brawl on the feet and take opponents down and finish them on the mat. However, there are some red flags with her as she makes her UFC debut with just five pro fights to her name. She’s also just a BJJ purple belt, and will be taking on a black belt in Stoliarenko. So while we’ve seen Chandler find success on the ground in the past, she’ll be at risk of getting armbarred anytime the fight hits the mat in this matchup. It’s no secret that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist, so it would make sense for Chandler to try and keep the fight standing as she should have the striking advantage, but even in a pure striking battle we like her chances of scoring well. Stoliarenko has looked incredibly hittable and Chandler is a brawling backyard bully who should be able to fully capitalize on that. The odds imply Chandler has a 49% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Maxim Grishin
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Coming off a decision win over William Knight, who amazingly missed weight by 12 lb causing the match to be moved to Heavyweight from Light Heavyweight, Grishin has alternated wins and losses over the course of his four fight UFC career. Four of his last five fights have gone the distance (1-2-1) and Grishin hasn’t been finished since suffering a 2016 R4 KO loss to Magomed Ankalaev. Grishin’s only early win in the last three years came in a R2 KO over Gadzhimurad Antigulov, who hasn’t required the judges in his last 12 fights, got cut following the loss to Grishin, and has lost five of his last six matches. In his tough July 2020 UFC debut, Grishin stepped in on short notice and up a weight class as he gave up 29 pounds to his Heavyweight opponent Marcin Tybura. He was clearly undersized for the Heavyweight division at just 223 lb and Tybura took full advantage of the size difference as he pushed Grishin up against the cage for the majority of the fight. Grishin returned to Light Heavyweight following the loss. His only UFC Light Heavyweight loss came in a close decision against Dustin Jacoby in his second most recent fight.
In his last fight, Grishin won a boring decision as he meticulously picked apart Knight while never putting himself in danger. While Knight was able to take Grishin down three times on nine attempts, Grishin won the striking battle as he finished ahead 69-21 in significant strikes and 88-32 in total strikes. Grishin never attempted any takedowns of his own and instead relied on his length to strike from distance, leaving Knight swinging at air for the most part as he tried to return fire. Knight looked fat and slow overall, and he landed just eight strikes in the first round with zero takedown attempts in the round. Grishin easily cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Now 32-9-2 as a pro, Grishin has 16 KO wins, six submissions, and 10 decisions. Of his 16 KO wins, 11 have ended in round one, two ended in round two, and three finished in round three. He’s been knocked out three times, has three submission losses, and three decision defeats. The only time he’s been finished since 2011 came in the 4th round of a 2016 fight against a really dangerous Magomed Ankalaev.
Overall, Grishin is now 37 years old and came into the UFC very late in his career. He’s a Master of Sport in Hand-to-Hand Combat, but is a slower paced fighter who averages just 3.40 SSL/min and 2.07 SSA/min. While 7 of his last 17 fights have ended early (6-1), only two of those finishes occurred in the first round and eight of his last nine matches have seen the second round. Grishin has only landed one takedown on three attempts in his four UFC fights (33.3% accuracy), while he’s been taken down 7 times on 21 attempts by his opponents (66.7% defense). Three of the times he was taken down came up at Heavyweight in his UFC debut, and three more came in his last fight, which was also moved up to Heavyweight at the last minute. He’s only been taken down once at Light Heavyweight in the UFC.
Philipe Lins
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After losing his first two UFC fights at Heavyweight, Lins had six straight fights canceled and then dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his last match when he took on Marcin Prachnio. After winning a million dollars in the PFL Heavyweight tournament, Lins was signed to the UFC and took on Andrei Arlovski in his May 2020 debut. Arlovski outlanded his way to a low-volume decision win as he led in significant strikes 50-41. Next, Lins took on Tanner Boser and got knocked out midway through the first round, as Boser led 15-6 in significant strikes. Lins then didn’t fight again for 22 months leading up to his recent win.
In his last fight, Lins looked to wrestle for the first time in the UFC as he landed four takedowns on 11 attempts after not attempting a takedown in his first two UFC fights up at Heavyweight. Following a slower paced first round, Lins came out aggressive in round two and had Prachnio hurt on the feet. However, Prachnio was able to survive and then the two guys spent an extended period of time pushing each other up against the cage. After landing just one takedown in the first two rounds, Lins secured the unanimous 29-28 decision win on the mat with three takedowns and three minutes of control time in round three. The fight ended with Prachnio ahead 74-64 in significant strikes and 116-96 in total strikes, but Lins led 4-0 in takedowns and 5:28-1:53 in control time.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Lins has eight wins by KO, four submissions, and three decision wins. Six of his KO wins ended in round two, one ended in round one, and another ended in round four. All four of his submission wins occurred in round one. He’s been knocked out in four of his five career losses, with the other ending in a decision. Three of those KO losses came in round one, with the other ending in round two. While two of his last three fights have gone the distance, 12 of his last 14 have ended early and 15 of his 20 pro fights have ended in the first two rounds (11-4). Lins started his career at Light Heavyweight, before moving up to Heavyweight in 2018 following two straight KO losses at Light Heavyweight. Of Lins’ four KO losses, one came in his last UFC Heavyweight fight, where he got knocked out in the first round, while the other three occurred at Light Heavyweight from 2014 to 2017.
Overall, Lins is a BJJ black belt with four first round submission wins on his record, but has only landed one submission since 2014, which came in a 2018 R1 guillotine choke. After not attempting a takedown in his two Heavyweight fights, Lins went 4 for 11 on takedowns in his last fight, so it will be interesting to see how much he looks to grapple moving forward. He only averages 3.40 SSL/min and has yet to top 64 significant strikes landed in a UFC fight.
Fight Prediction:
Grishin will have a 1” height advantage but both fighters share a 78” reach. Lins is one year younger than the 38-year-old Grishin.
After not being able to finish a fragile Marcin Prachnio, it’s hard to see Lins finishing a very durable Maxim Grishin here. However, Lins has been knocked out in four of his five career losses and we could definitely see Grishin knocking Lins out. The concern is that Grishin fights so slow and patiently that he’ll have limited opportunities to do so. However, the sluggish space in his last match can partially be attributed to the fact that he was fighting for his job against a dangerous opponent in Knight who showed up 12 lb heavier than Grishin at weigh-ins. Now that Grishin has secured a second UFC contract, it would make sense for him to open up a little more and we like his chances of knocking Lins out.
Our favorite bet here is “Grishin KO” at +310.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Grishin is a patient low-volume counter striker, who appears generally reliant on finishes to score well. He landed just 18 significant strikes across 15 minutes of inaction in his ill-fated UFC debut at Heavyweight, and then landed just 34 significant strikes on his way to a late second round TKO in his second UFC fight. Even with a favorable late R2 KO, he still scored just 99 DraftKings points. He then lost a decision and despite landing two knockdowns he scored just 51 DraftKings points, so even if it had gone his way he still would have scored just 81. Unless he puts on a completely dominating grappling performance, it’s hard to see Grishin return value without a finish. Working in his favor, Lins has been knocked out in the first two rounds in four of his five career losses and 16 of Grishin’s 32 career wins have come by knockout. Grishin was only 10% owned on DraftKings in his last match and after scoring just 66 DraftKings points in a decision win, we’d be surprised if was a popular play here. That makes him an interesting tournament option, just keep in mind he likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to be useful. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Lins is coming off his first UFC win, which was also his first UFC fight down at Light Heavyweight and his first fight where he attempted a takedown. He ended up landing 4 of his 11 takedown attempts with five and half minutes of control time and was able to score 92 DraftKings points in a decision win. However, he only landed 64 significant strikes and averages just 3.40 SSL/min in his career, so he appears reliant on grappling to score well when he can’t find a finish. Grishin has been extremely durable and the only time he’s been finished since 2011 came in the 4th round of a 2016 fight against Magomed Ankalaev. After Lins was unable to even finish a fragile Marcin Prachnio, it’s hard to see him finishing Grishin here. That likely leaves Lins’ lone path to scoring well as winning a grappling-heavy decision. Grishin has a 66% takedown defense, having been taken down 7 times on 21 attempts, but six of those takedowns came in Heavyweight matches and he’s only been taken down once at Light Heavyweight. That doesn’t make us very excited about playing Lins here and his recent win should bump up his ownership, further reducing our interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Krzysztof Jotko
17th UFC Fight (11-5)Jotko is coming off a pair of decision wins over grapplers Gerald Meerschaert and Misha Cirkunov and has fought to six straight decisions since getting knocked out by Brad Tavares in 2018. His last early win was all the way back in 2016 and he’s now gone 10 straight fights without finishing an opponent. Jotko is the only fighter to take Cirkunov to a decision since 2011, showing there’s no matchup that Jotko can’t make boring.
In his last fight, Jotko did a good job of defending the takedown attempts of Meerschaert, only allowing Meerschaert to land one takedown on four attempts. Somewhat surprisingly, Jotko landed all four of his own takedown attempts, while also leading 65-37 in significant strikes and 129-46 in total strikes as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Now 24-5 as a pro, Jotko has six wins by KO, one by submission, and 17 decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. His lone submission loss came in a 2014 R2 guillotine choke, while his two TKO losses came in the second and third round of consecutive fights in 2017 and 2018.
Overall, Jotko has an impressive 83% takedown defense and he’s only been taken down 14 times on 83 attempts in his 16 UFC fights. Most of his opponents have a terrible career takedown accuracy for what it’s worth, but overall he’s done a good job of staying on his feet. Jotko is an uninspiring low-volume slot filler who’s sole goal in fighting appears to be survival. Despite fighting to 12 decisions with the UFC, he’s never landed more than 74 significant strikes and has only topped two takedowns once. He averages 3.02 SSL/min and 2.26 SSA/min, while tacking on 1.4 TDL/15 min.
Brendan Allen
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Fresh off a questionable decision win over Jacob Malkoun, Allen has won his last two and four of his last five fights, with his one loss over that stretch coming in a R2 TKO against Chris Curtis. Prior to his recent decision win, Allen submitted Sam Alvey in the second round after suffering the loss to Curtis. Just before that he won a decision in a pure striking battle against Punahele Soriano, after submitting Karl Roberson in the first round. His only other UFC loss besides the one to Curtis was a 2020 R2 TKO against Sean Strickland, which came after Allen won his first three UFC matches.
In his last fight, Allen competed in a wrestling match against Jacob Malkoun, who took Allen down 7 times on 14 attempts and controlled him for over seven minutes. Allen landed two takedowns of his own with three and a half minutes of control time, but Malkoun was dictating the wrestling exchanges. Allen was the slightly busier striker as he finished ahead 45-33 in significant strikes and 89-66 in total strikes. Neither guy inflicted much damage in the fight for what it’s worth.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Allen has five wins by KO, 10 by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the second round, and submitted once, which occurred in his third pro fight against Trevin Giles back in 2016. He also has two five-round LFA decision losses to Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders. So all five of his career losses have come against current UFC fighters, but three of those occurred before he joined the UFC. Six of his nine UFC fights have ended early, while he’s won all three of the decisions he’s been to with the organization.
Overall, Allen is a BJJ black belt and is most dangerous on the mat, but he has a low fight IQ and often fails to take the path of least resistance. He seems like the type of guy that probably used to stick knives in electrical outlets as a kid to see what would happen. He’s a fairly patient striker on the feet, averaging 4.15 SSL/min, and failed to land a takedown in three of his last four fights. In fact, he’s only landed six takedowns in his nine UFC fights overall, despite being known for his grappling.
Fight Prediction:
Allen will have a 1” height advantage, but Jotko will have a 2” reach advantage. Allen is seven years younger than the 33-year-old Jotko.
It’s hard to see this fight ending in any other way than a close decision and we expect it to remain mostly, if not entirely, on the feet. Allen only really looks to grapple following losses and even if he did want to get this fight to the ground, Jotko has a really solid takedown defense. If anyone’s going to land takedowns, it would more likely be Jotko, who has shown he has no problem taking grapplers to the mat. The striking exchanges will likely be fairly close, and while Allen typically lands more volume than Jotko, he also absorbs more. Because of that, we expect this to end in a coin flip decision that could go either way, but we’ll say Allen does enough to get his hand raised.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -154.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Allen has averaged a respectable 95 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins. If we look just at his decisions, he’s averaged 82 points, but relies on grappling stats to put up a decent score as he totaled just 68 points in his one decision win that stayed entirely on the feet. Jotko is one of the worst opponents you could ask for when it comes to DFS production, as Jotko has a really solid 83% takedown defense, almost exclusively fights to decisions, and only averages 2.26 SSA/min. That will make it tough for Allen to return value, even at his cheaper price tag. When you factor in Allen’s high projected ownership, we don’t have much interest in playing him here. The odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Jotko has averaged 81 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins, but has only topped 82 points in three of those and has only hit the century mark once. With that said, he was able to score 99 points in his recent decision win over Gerald Meerschaert as he matched his career high with four takedown landed. Just keep in mind, Meerschaert has just a 29% career takedown defense and wanted that fight to be on the ground. Allen doesn’t have a great takedown defense either, but at 50% is better than Meerschaert’s. While Jotko is almost never DFS relevant, this isn’t the worst spot for him to potentially serve as a value play at his cheaper price tag if he can put up another solid takedown number in addition to a decent striking total. His low ownership also adds to his appeal some. With that said, he’s never a guy we have much interest in playing and he’s still unlikely to end up in tournament winning lineups without a finish unless we see a really low scoring slate. The odds imply he has a 54% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Joaquim Silva
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Silva is coming off a 16 month layoff and has been knocked out in his last two fights, with neither of those matches making it to the six minute mark. He’s lost three of his last four fights, with his last win coming in a 2018 R3 KO win over Jared Gordon. Prior to the loss in his last fight, Silva hadn’t competed in 22 months dating back to an August 2019 R2 KO loss to Nasrat Haqparast, which is the only time Haqparast has finished anybody in the UFC.
In his last fight, Silva took on Ricky Glenn who was coming off nearly a three year layoff after undergoing hip surgery and was moving up a weight class. Glenn’s other eight most recent fights had all gone the distance and he’s never finished anybody else in the UFC, but he put Silva down in just 37 seconds, landing a pair of knockdowns in the quick fight and finishing ahead 10-1 in significant strikes and 14-1 in total strikes.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Silva has six wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. Silva started his career at 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb when he went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2015.
Overall, Silva has been largely unimpressive in the UFC and his chin appears to be gone. Despite being a BJJ black belt, Silva has only shot for two takedowns in his seven UFC fights, and landed just one of those. He’s also failed to land more than 49 significant strikes in six of his seven UFC matches with the one exception coming when he landed 95 on Jared Gordon in his most recent win.
Jesse Ronson
6th UFC Fight (0-4, NC)Still in search of his first official UFC win, Ronson had been set to face Vinc Pichel here, but Pichel dropped out and Silva was announced as the replacement in mid August. Ronson originally made his UFC debut in 2013, but after losing three straight split decisions against tough opponents in Michel Prazeres, Francisco Trinaldo, and Kevin Lee he was released in 2014. He then went 8-5 outside of the organization, with seven of those wins coming early and four of those losses going the distance, before returning to the UFC in 2020. He impressively finished Nicolas Dalby in the first round, but later had the win overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for PEDs and was handed a 20-month suspension.
In his last fight, we saw a somewhat slower start to the match for the first five minutes, with Rafa Garcia landing one takedown in the round against Ronson. A minute into round two, Garcia landed an illegal knee as Ronson was returning to his feet following another takedown. The doctor allowed the fight to continue, but Garcia was deducted a point. As soon as action resumed, Garcia took Ronson down again and controlled him for the rest of the fight until he locked in a rear-naked choke in the closing seconds of the round to finish the fight. It’s hard to know how much of an impact the knee played, but it was a pretty sketchy outcome. The fight ended with Garcia ahead in significant strikes 35-25 and in total strikes 73-28, while landing three of his four takedown attempts with close to five minutes of control time. Ronson definitely didn’t look good in the fight even before the knee, but also hadn’t fought in almost two years.
Now 21-11 as a pro, Ronson has 10 wins by KO, seven by submission, and four decisions. He’s also been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has seven decision losses. The majority of his career has been spent at 155 lb, but he’s also had six fights at 170 lb (2-3, NC) and that’s where he faced a tough Nicolas Dalby in his return. He then dropped back down to 155 lb for his last fight, where this next one will also be. His last four fights have all ended in the first two rounds and he’s only required the judges in two of his last 10 matches. Curiously, 5 of the 11 decisions he’s been to in his career have been split.
Overall, Ronson started off wrestling in high school before transitioning to kickboxing and then eventually MMA. He’s primarily a striker, with just two takedowns landed in his five UFC fights, but he can mix in grappling and often looks to finish fights with submissions. Counting the one that was overturned to a No Contest, three of his last five finishes have come by submission. Now 36 years old, you have to wonder if Ronson can regain his pre PED suspension form or if the last version of him is the one we’re stuck with.
Fight Prediction:
Ronson will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Silva is three years younger than the 36-year-old Ronson.
Both of these guys are struggling mightily and potentially fighting for their jobs. They’re each past their prime, but Silva’s chin—or lack thereof—is especially concerning. He’s been knocked out in back to back fights by decision machines in Ricky Glenn and Nasrat Haqparast, and will now face an opponent who actually has a history of landing finishes. Ronson has to be licking his chops after seeing how Silva’s last two fights went down, and while both of these guys are pretty gross, we like Ronson to find an early finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Ronson ITD” at +250.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Silva scored just 55 and 50 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins and looks entirely reliant on landing a finish to score well. He only averages 3.90 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown on two attempts in seven UFC appearances. His last win was a 2018 R3 KO, but it still scored just 94 DraftKings points, so priced as the favorite he may need a finish in the first two rounds to crack tournament winning lineups. Working in his favor, Ronson has been finished in the first two rounds in each of his last two losses and is now 36 years old. The odds imply Silva has a 57% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Ronson is still in search of his first official UFC win after a 2020 R1 submission victory was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for PEDs. He was then suspended for 20 months and upon his return got submitted in the second round of his only fight since. He only averages 3.37 SSL/min and 0.5 TDL/15 min so he relies on finishes to score well and he scored 22, 23, and 26 DraftKings points in his three decision losses. Working in his favor, Silva has been knocked out in each of his last two fights by a couple of decision machines and his chin has looked completely gone. While we love the matchup, it’s still hard to know how much Ronson has left at 36 years old and presumably no longer on the juice. With that said, he has a history of landing early finishes and his upside is undeniable even if he has a shaky floor. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Ilir Latifi
15th UFC Fight (8-6)This is the third time this matchup has been booked and Latifi withdrew each of the last two times. It was originally booked on March 26th and both fighters successfully weighed in but then Latifi withdrew the day of the event citing an illness. Then it was rebooked two weeks later but Latifi again withdrew and that time Oleinik ended up remaining on the card and facing Jared Vanderaa instead.
Now 39 years old, the former Light Heavyweight Latifi moved up to Heavyweight for his last two fights, after losing his last two matches at Light Heavyweight. In his first fight up at Heavyweight, Latifi lost a low-volume, grappling-heavy close decision to Derrick Lewis where he was outlanded by Lewis just 20-5 in significant strikes, but led in total strikes 62-27 and control time 8:48-0:41, while also landing three takedowns on seven attempts. Just like his last fight, Latifi didn’t do much with his takedowns, and that time the judges didn’t put any value into them as they unanimously awarded Lewis a 29-28 decision, despite the fact that he landed just 20 significant strikes. In fairness, Lewis definitely did more damage with the strikes he did land and finished the fight strong with a hard push for a finish. The fact that Latifi was able to move up to Heavyweight and still throw a behemoth like Lewis around while absorbing several destructive blows was impressive in its own right, especially after he had been knocked out four times down at Light Heavyweight. Following that loss, Latifi didn’t step back inside the Octagon for 16 months.
In his last fight, Latifi narrowly avoided extending his losing streak to four in a close/questionable split-decision win over Tanner Boser in his last outing. Boser outlanded Latifi 45-10 in significant strikes and 84-51 in total strikes. He also almost finished the fight in the second round as Latifi appeared to think he was poked in the eye but the fight played on and Boser hammered him on the mat. Just barely able to survive with some help from the ref, Latifi finished the fight going 2 for 3 on takedowns with over six and a half minutes of control time. The decision looked to come down to who the judges thought won the first round, where Boser was the one landing all the strikes (8-1 in significant strikes and 14-6 in total strikes), but Latifi was able to get him to the mat and control him for a couple of minutes without doing any damage. Latifi did nothing but pay on Boser with his two takedown attempts and it’s somewhat surprising the judges rewarded him for that.
Now 15-8 as a pro, Latifi has six wins by KO, four by submission, and five decisions. While he’s never been submitted, he’s been knocked out four times and has lost four decisions. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance and he was knocked out in the other. His last KO win was all the way back in 2016 and he doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank.
Overall, Latifi is a former Swedish National Greco-Roman wrestling champion and relies mostly on wrestling and control time to win fights these days. His only finish since 2016 resulted from a 2018 R1 guillotine choke against Ovince St. Preux. Latifi nearly knocked out OSP, but instead finished him with a standing guillotine choke. Latifi’s other three most recent wins all went the distance and while he showed decent power earlier in his career, his output has been horrendous lately, landing a combined 15 significant strikes in his last 30 minutes of action.
Aleksei Oleinik
17th UFC Fight (9-7)Finally snapping a three fight skid with a R1 submission win over Jared Vanderaa in his last matchup, the 44 year old Oleinik notched the 47th submission of his career, but his first in his last five fights since he landed a January 2020 R2 submission against Maurice Greene. Prior to his recent win, Oleinik lost a decision to Sergey Spivak after getting knocked out by Chris Daukaus and Derrick Lewis.
In his last fight, after a two minute feeling out process Oleinik pulled guard to try and get the fight to the mat. While Vanderaa initially defended, he lacked the urgency to escape the position and eventually found himself on the mat. He momentarily had Oleinik’s back and then came close to locking up a triangle, but Oleinik escaped and unsurprisingly took Vanderaa’s back. Oleinik then worked his way to a scarf hold submission and quickly forced a tap. The fight ended with Vanderaa ahead 15-8 in significant strikes and 23-8 in total strikes.
Now 60-16-1 as a pro, Oleinik has eight wins by KO, 47 by submission, and just five decision victories. He’s been knocked out nine times, submitted twice, and has five decision defeats. The last time he was submitted was in 2004, with the other coming in 1997. So while he’s been prone to getting knocked out, no one really ever submits him. His second most recent win came in a split decision over a fellow aging Heavyweight grappler in Fabricio Werdum.
Overall, Oleinik is a crafty submission specialist who lacks durability and cardio. He insanely made his pro debut all the way back in November 1996 and this will be his 78th pro fight. He’s been in some criminal mismatches lately as the UFC had him squaring off against highly ranked opponents, when in reality he should be in fights like this taking on other aging fighters. He’s done well in those types of matchups and he gets another one here.
Fight Prediction:
Oleinik will have a 4” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
Now 44 years old and coming in on a three fight losing streak, Oleinik is just 1-3 in his last four fights but refuses to call it quits. He still appears to have some fight left in him, which is more than we can say about his opponent in this matchup. Latifi appears to be showing up to cash paychecks at this point, but he notably has never been submitted and it takes a roadmap to find his neck. It will be interesting to see how the wrestling exchanges go between these two aging Heavyweight grapplers, but we expect Latifi to rely on control time, while Oleinik will be the one looking for submissions. While Oleinik has been prone to getting knocked out, Latifi hasn't knocked anybody out since 2016 when he was fighting down at Light Heavyweight and only landed 15 significant strikes in his last six rounds of action. Oleinik is the busier fighter and while he rarely requires the judges or wins by decision, we actually like this one to go the distance and for him to get his hand raised in a close, potentially split decision. Just keep in mind this one has the potential to get sloppy and we could see both guys gas out late with Latifi just laying on Oleinik, so the judging may be up for interpretation.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +200.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Latifi scored just 64 DraftKings points in his recent split-decision win and has never topped 84 points without a first round finish. He doesn’t appear to have much left in his tank at 39 years old and has been content with lying on his opponents and riding out fights since moving up to Heavyweight for his last two matches. He probably should be on a four fight losing streak right now, but he squeaked out a split-decision win in his last fight. The last time he finished an opponent was in a 2018 guillotine choke and the last time he knocked anybody out was in 2016. While Oleinik has been prone to getting knocked out himself, we’re not convinced that Latifi is up for the task. Without a finish, it’s hard to see Latifi returning value even with his wrestling heavy approach. When he does get opponents down, he simply lies on them and doesn’t throw any ground strikes or look for submissions, which obviously isn’t great for DFS scoring. His UFC decision wins have been good for 64, 84, and 67 points. He’s also never finished an opponent beyond the first round in a UFC fight, which appears to leave him reliant on knocking Oleinik out in round one to be useful. The odds imply Latifi has a 61% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Oleinik consistently puts up decent scores when he wins, the problem is he rarely wins anymore. In fairness to him, he did land a submission in his last fight and had faced a series of really tough opponents in his previous three matches. Now he gets to face a fellow washed up fighter and the last time we saw him in a matchup like this was when he won a split decision over Fabricio Werdum in 2020 and scored 91 DraftKings points, which is the only time Oleinik has won a decision in the UFC (1-2). With that said, this isn’t a great stylistic matchup for Oleinik to score well as he goes up against a bowling ball wrestler who’s never been submitted and will be looking to lay on top of him and push him up against the cage for periods of time. While Oleinik has only been to two decisions in his last 13 fights, both of those came in his last five matches, and despite what the odds say, there’s a good chance this one goes the distance. Working against Oleinik, Latifi has never been taken down in the UFC and only absorbs an average of 2.86 SS/min. So this fight will have to get pretty weird for Oleinik to score well without a finish. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #6
Mike Davis
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Davis had been preparing to face Uros Medic here before Medic dropped out and Borshchev stepped in on September 14th on two and half weeks’ notice.
It’s been 21 months since Davis last stepped foot in the Octagon, and he’s only fought once since October 2019. In that lone appearance, he took on a debuting Mason Jones and narrowly won a brawling decision. Looking back 15 months earlier, he nearly beat a terrible Thomas Gifford to death inside the Octagon in a R3 KO win after getting submitted by Gilbert Burns in the second round of his April 2019 UFC debut. Davis originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but lost a high-volume decision to Sodiq Yusuff and was forced to return to the regional scene. That fight notably took place at 145 lb and Davis bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb early in his career, with four fights at the lower weight class. Following the loss to Yusuff, Davis finished a couple of low level opponents who have both lost their last six fights. Regardless, that was enough for the UFC to bring Davis on board.
In his last fight, Davis threw down in an absolute war against a debuting Mason Jones and handed Jones the first loss of his career in a razor close decision. Jones actually finished ahead in significant strikes 117-108 and total strikes 132-111, but Davis did land three takedowns on nine attempts, while Jones landed one of his four attempts. Neither guy even had a full minute of control time in a fight that was non stop action. Judging by their faces after the match, Davis clearly did more damage, but it seemed like the decision could have gone either way.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Davis has seven wins by KO, one by submission, and one decision. He’s never been knocked out, but has one submission loss and one decision defeat. Of his eight early wins, four came in round one, one ended in round two, and three finished in round three. Five of his last six fights have seen the second round, with four making it to round three, and two going the distance. All of his finishes have come against lower level competition and he’s faced a lot of suspect opponents in his career.
Overall, Davis is an exciting striker and also has a background in wrestling. He always makes for exciting fights and is typically looking to throw down in a brawl as he averages 6.24 SSL/min (2nd most on the slate) and 6.76 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate). He stands heavy on his lead league and we’ve seen opponents aggressively attack that, which is something he needs to improve on. While he failed to land any of his four takedown attempts on DWCS and never attempted any takedowns in his UFC debut, he’s lasted five takedowns on 11 attempts in his last two fights and will mix in some wrestling. With that said, he finished with 50 seconds of control time in his last fight on three takedowns landed and 1:56 in his previous fight on two takedowns, so he’s generally not a guy that holds his opponents on the mat for very long. Davis has talked about working on some of his mental hurdles during his time away, so it will be interesting to see how he looks here considering how infrequently he’s competed over the last few years.
Viacheslav Borshchev
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from a smothering decision loss against Marc Diakiese, Borshchev had landed four straight KOs in the first 2 rounds of fights leading up to the recent defeat. Prior to his recent loss, Borshchev landed a first round knockout in his UFC debut against Dakota Bush, which is the only time Bush has ever been finished. Borshchev finished Bush late in the first round with a vicious body shot to the liver that crumpled him to the mat and then Borshchev finished it with ground and pound. Just before that, Borshchev landed an early second round knockout on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC.
In his last fight, Borshchev got taken down early and often by Diakiese, who landed a career best 11 takedowns on 18 attempts with nearly 12 and a half minutes of control time. We didn’t see much striking in the match, with Diakiese finishing ahead in significant strikes 17-12 and in total strikes 40-32.
Still just 6-2 as a pro, Borshchev has five wins by KO and decision victory. Three of those knockouts came in round one, with the other two ending in round two. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance.
Overall, Borshchev is a former Russian Kickboxing champion with literally hundreds of kickboxing matches on his resume but he’s still relatively new to MMA as he only turned pro in 2019 and his grappling—or lack thereof—is clearly a massive weakness. He’s a kickboxing coach at Team Alpha Male, and claims he’s been working on improving his defensive grappling, but he struggled mightily off his back in his last match. While Borshchev’s appearance is somewhat unimposing, he’s a solid striker who does a great job of ripping shots to the body of his opponents, frequently targeting the liver.
Fight Prediction:
Davis will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as an exciting brawl battle between two dangerous strikers. It will be interesting to see how much Davis looks to wrestle, as he should have a sizable advantage on the mat considering his wrestling background. With that said, he’s more of a brawler than a grappler and only really mixes in takedowns to change things up. While Davis is the more explosive athlete in this matchup, Borshchev has sneaky power and throws calculated body shots that routinely shutdown the opposition. Davis has shown he can absorb head shots, but it doesn’t matter how tough you are if you get hit in just the right spot. Both guys are fully capable of finishing the other, but neither of them have ever been knocked out in their short MMA careers and it’s certainly possible they both survive to see a decision. However, we still like it to end in a knockout, and while Davis is the more explosive, impressive, and well-rounded fighter who should win, we’re taking a dog shot here on Borshchev to land a knockout in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at +100.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Davis is a high-volume brawler with an 89% finishing rate who will also mix in takedown attempts, which is exactly what you want from your fighters in DFS. He scored a ridiculous 134 DraftKings points in his lone UFC finish, which came late in the third round of a 2019 fight that he absolutely dominated against a terrible opponent. More recently, he scored 90 DraftKings points in a high-volume decision win over Mason Jones, showing at least a solid floor even when he doesn’t land a finish. It will be interesting to see what Davis’ approach is in this fight, as Borshchev has looked helpless on the mat and Davis has a background in wrestling. While it would make sense for Davis to at least mix in some grappling, he generally relies on his striking to win fights and we’re still expecting this to remain mostly on the feet. However, that does present another way for him to score well if he comes in with a more wrestling-heavy game plan than expected. With multiple ways to score well, it’s hard not to like Davis in DFS, but just keep in mind he does project to be popular in tournaments. The odds imply Davis has a 63% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Borshchev is a pure kickboxer who has landed knockouts in the first two rounds in five of his six pro wins. He landed a first round knockout in his UFC debut that was good for 112 DraftKings points, but then got smothered on the mat for three rounds in his last fight. He’ll always be a liability when he faces grapplers, but while Mike Davis has a wrestling background, he relies mostly on his striking to win fights even if he does mix in takedowns. If Borshchev can keep the fight standing, he has a decent shot at handing Davis the first KO loss of his career. It’s also possible Davis comes in with some ring rust after taking 21 months off and having only completed once since 2019. That’s encouraging for Borshchev’s chances of landing a clean liver shot early on, something that he excels at. While Davis has never been knocked out, he only has 11 pro fights on his record and most of that was against a low level of competition. He also spent over a third of his career fighting down at 145 lb, opposed to 155 lb where all of his UFC fights have been. If Borshchev can land a finish, he’s essentially a lock to end up in tournament winning lineups in what we expect to be an uptempo brawl. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
John Castaneda
4th UFC Fight (2-1)This had been set to take place at 135 lb but it was moved to a 140 lb Catchweight on Tuesday. Castaneda is coming off a third round submission win over Miles Johns after he knocked out a washed up Eddie Wineland in the first round a year earlier. Prior to the pair of finishes, Castaneda lost a decision in his July 2020 UFC debut against a really tough Nathaniel Wood. Prior to joining the UFC, Castaneda landed a third round submission win over UFC fighter Marcelo Rojo and also knocked out another UFC fighter in Gustavo Lopez earlier in his career. Castaneda won a decision on DWCS back in 2017, but it wasn’t enough to get him into the UFC. Following that win, he went 3-2 on the Central American regional scene, including two submission wins, before getting the call to join the UFC.
In his last fight, we saw a slow start for the first half of the fight before Castaneda began to put it on Johns in the second round as he Johns began to fade. He continued to assault Johns in round three and dropped him with a knee to the head and a combination of punches before locking up an arm triangle on the mat against his compromised opponent. While we didn’t see big striking totals in the fight, Castaneda made his shots count as he tactfully dismantled a tough opponent in Johns. The fight ended early in round three with Castaneda ahead 58-34 in significant strikes and 68-34 in total strikes. Both fighters failed to land their only takedown attempt, but Castaneda finished with one official knockdown and could have had two.
Now 19-5 as a pro, Castaneda has eight wins by KO, six by submission, and five decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2014 R1 TKO in his 5th pro fight, while his last four losses all went the distance, with two of those being split. While he’s lost the last three decisions he’s been to, he’s won the last 11 fights he’s fought that have ended early.
Overall, Castaneda is a patient striker and has a wrestling background. We haven’t seen him use his wrestling almost at all at the UFC level, as he’s failed on both of his takedown attempts, but he did land two takedowns on seven attempts in his 2017 DWCS appearance. Castaneda averages 4.38 SSL/min but hasn’t landed more than 58 significant strikes in any of his three UFC fights or his DWCS match.
Daniel Santos
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his recent UFC debut, Santos is now just 2-2 in his last four fights, with the two losses ending in decisions and the two wins ending in first round finishes. Prior to the loss in his UFC April 2022 debut, Santos had three fights canceled and hadn’t fought in 28 months dating back to a December 2019 R1 submission win.
In his last fight, Santos threw a ton of strikes (229), but only connected on 49 of them (21%). Veteran Julio Arce was able to use his footwork to effectively control the distance throughout the match as Santos never stopped pushing forward. Arce more than doubled Santos’ number of significant strikes in every round of the fight and finished ahead 127-49 in striking. Neither fighter landed a takedown, Arce on one attempt and Santos on two. Arce easily cruised to a unanimous decision win.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Santos has four wins by KO, one by submission, and three decisions. Three of his last four wins have come in round one—two by spinning back kick TKO and another from an armbar. He also has a R2 KO by spinning back elbow on his record and this kid loves spinning attacks. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses ending in decisions. Other than the loss to Arce, Santos’ only career loss came in a 2019 decision against Russian wrestler Murad Kalamov, who was able to control Santos on the mat for the majority of the fight. Santos has competed anywhere from 125 lb to 145 lb in the past, but the majority of his fights have been at 135 lb.
Overall, Santos is primarily a striker, but he did submit his last opponent before joining the UFC, which is the only submission of his career. He trains out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima in Brazil with several high profile UFC fighters, including the Lightweight champ, Charles Oliveira. Santos will aggressively push forward, but has a shorter reach and we saw him struggle to find his range in his debut as he missed on nearly 80% of his attempted strikes. It will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes going into his second UFC fight.
Fight Prediction:
Santos will have a 1” height advantage, but Castaneda will have a 4” reach advantage.
Castaneda seems to improve every time he steps inside the Octagon and patiently finished each of his last two opponents, but he’s also lost the last few decisions he’s been to and will now face an opponent who’s never been finished. While Santos’ output was impressive in his recent debut, his accuracy was abysmal, landing just 21% of his strikes. Now he’ll be at a reach disadvantage and will need to find ways to close the distance opposed to just relying heavily on spinning attacks. While Santos has been dangerous when he actually connects on a spinning attack, Castaneda is a smart, durable fighter who hasn’t been finished in his last 19 fights. Castaneda should also have the wrestling advantage, should he choose to use it, but he’s yet to land a takedown in the UFC on just two attempts. Ultimately, we expect Santos to be the aggressor in this matchup and could see it playing out similarly to his last one, with Castaneda playing the role of Arce and relying on his footwork to stay out of danger. If Santos can improve his accuracy it’s certainly possible he lands enough volume to get his hand raised, but until we see his accuracy improve it’s hard to really trust him. Castaneda has far more experience and we expect him to rely on that to remain out of danger and outland his way to victory, most likely in a decision win, but we expect this to be a close fight.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -128.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Castaneda is coming off a third round submission win that scored just 83 DraftKings points, but 102 points on FanDuel. He averages 4.38 SSL/min and has yet to notch a takedown on two attempts in his three UFC fights, which makes it tough for him to return value at his expensive price tag without a finish in the first two rounds. Working in his favor, Santos absorbed 127 significant strikes in his recent debut loss (8.47 SSA/min), however Julio Arce still scored just 81 DraftKings points and 96 points on FanDuel in that high-volume decision win. So that still leaves Castaneda reliant on either landing a finish or suddenly relying heavily on his wrestling and it’s hard to rely on the latter. Santos has never been finished in 10 pro fights, so this doesn’t look like the best spot for Castaneda to find the finish he needs to score well, but his last three wins have all come early. The odds imply Castaneda has a 63% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Santos threw a ton of volume in his recent UFC debut, but only connected on 49 of his 229 strike attempts (21%). That’s both encouraging for his upside, but also disturbing when it comes to his accuracy. He has a pretty short reach (67” the same as Strawweight Jessica Penne), which can’t help him any. Maybe that’s why he likes to throw so many spinning attacks as he tries to compensate for his arm length. Regardless, he’ll be at a 4” reach advantage in this matchup and he’ll need to do a better job of closing the distance or connecting on one of his spinning attacks if he wants to win this fight. He’s proven himself to be dangerous with those flashy attacks, but they are low percentage options when it comes to landing them. Also working against him, Castaneda has only been finished once in his career, which was all the way back in 2014. At Santos’ cheaper price, it’s possible he can serve as a value play in a decision win if he vastly improves his striking accuracy, but he scored just 21 DraftKings points in his recent decision loss. To really score well he’ll need to land a finish, and to his credit his last two and three of his last four wins have come in the first round. The odds imply Santos has a 37% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Sodiq Yusuff
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Yusuff Had been set to face Giga Chikadze here, but Chikadze dropped out and Don Shainis was announced as the replacement on September 13th.
After losing a close decision to Arnold Allen in his second most recent fight to snap a six fight winning streak, Yusuff bounced back with a decision win over Alex Caceres most recently. Yusuff’s last three and four of his last five matches have gone the distance, with his only finish since 2018 coming in a 2019 R1 TKO win over Gabriel Benitez. Yusuff’s only other early UFC win came in his 2018 debut, also by R1 TKO.
In his last fight, Yusuff landed the first takedown of his UFC career as he caught a kick against Alex Caceres and then took him to the mat in round one. However, he wasn’t able to do much with it, but did try unsuccessfully to return the fight to the mat two more times. Caceres was also able to land a takedown in the first round, but similarly was unable to do anything with it. Yusuff did a good job of landing leg strikes, which accounted for over half of his total significant strikes landed. All three rounds were close on the statsheet, with Caceres finishing ahead in significant strikes 66-64, but Yusuff leading in total strikes 74-71. Both fighters landed one takedown on three attempts, although Yusuff did finish ahead in control time 2:42-0:21. Regardless of the close stats, two of the judges ruled the fight 30-27 in Yusuff’s favor and the other judge had it 29-28 for him.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Yusuff has six wins by KO and six decisions. His last four KO wins all occurred in the first round, after the first two of his career came in the first half of round two. He’s never finished anybody beyond the midway point of round two. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2017 R1 KO in a Titan FC Featherweight Championship fight. The only other loss of his career came in a 2021 decision against a really tough Arnold Allen. Yusuff fought some at 155 lb earlier in his career, but has competed exclusively at 145 lb since 2017. It’s often discussed how he cuts a lot of weight to get down to 145 lb.
Overall, Yusuff is a powerful striker, but generally doesn’t add much in terms of grappling. He’s never landed a submission and has only landed one takedown on eight attempts since joining the UFC. However, he has talked about how he comes from a jiu-jitsu gym and will look for submissions in fights. He’s been taken down six times on 15 attempts in his six UFC fights, while he defended all four of the attempts against him on DWCS just before joining the UFC, which factors into his 68.4% takedown defense. Only three UFC opponents have actually tried to get him down (not counting his DWCS fight) and all three landed at least one of their attempts, with two landing multiple. Yusuff averages 5.22 SSL/min, but has failed to land more than 73 significant strikes in any of his six UFC fights. He has a solid right outside leg kick that was on full display when he destroyed the lead leg of Mike Davis on DWCS in 2018.
Don Shainis
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on two and a half week’s notice, Shainis has won five straight fights, with four of those ending in knockouts, including three straight R1 TKOs in his last few fights. He’s 9-1 in his last 10 fights, but he certainly hasn’t been facing the toughest competition. The first six wins of his career came against opponents with losing records and he only has four pro wins against opponents with winning records. His third most recent win came against an opponent who entered with a head scratching record of 16-104 and Shainis amazingly handed him his 100th early loss. The closest thing Shainis has fought to real competition was Cody Pfister, who went 1-3 with the UFC earlier in his career and has now lost three of his most recent four fights.
In his last fight, Shainis got rocked early on, but was able to survive and land offense of his own as he dropped his opponent and jumped on top. He then went to work on the mat with ground and pound for several minutes until the fight was eventually stopped late in the first round.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Shainis has eight wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a post R1 TKO due to a doctor stoppage in his 2016 pro debut. His other two losses both went the distance. Eight of his 10 finishes occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. Shainis has bounced between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, with his last fight taking place at 145 lb, but his four prior to that all coming at 155 lb. He’ll be making his debut at 145 lb.
Overall, every Shainis fight looks pretty much identical, with him looking to take opponents down and beat them up with ground and pound. While he’s also looked prone to getting taken down himself, he’s shown the ability to sweep opponents on the mat to end up on top when he does get taken down. At just 5’6” tall, Shainis is accustomed to being the smaller fighter and this matchup will be no different.
Fight Prediction:
Yusuff will have a 3” height advantage and 4.5” reach advantage.
After preparing to take on the #8 ranked Featherweight in Giga Chikadze, the #12 ranked Yusuff will get a much easier opponent as he takes on a short notice UFC newcomer instead. With that said, Yusuff had been preparing for a one-dimensional kickboxer in Chikadze, and will now be facing an opponent who will be looking to take him down and beat him up on the mat. While Yusuff has a decent 68% takedown defense, the last three opponents to try and take him down have landed at least one of their attempts, but Yusuff typically does a pretty good job of quickly returning to his feet. We’ve also seen Yusuff get dropped at times, even if he’s only been knocked out once in his career. So while this sets up as a smash spot for Yusuff, it’s hard to completely eliminate the possibility that he either gets clipped on the feet or gets taken down and beat up on the mat. With that said, Yusuff is the more powerful striker with far more high-level experience and we fully expect him to dominate in this match. Shainis’ chin looked shaky in his last fight and Yusuff will likely test it early in the first round. Yusuff will also look for submissions during grappling exchanges, so if Shainis goes for an early takedown as he typically does, we could see Yussuff try and lock up his first career submission win. Again, a low percentage outcome. We like Yusuff’s chances of either landing an early knockout, or winning a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Yusuff DEC” at +180.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Yusuff has been a R1 KO or bust DFS play throughout his first six UFC fights, as he scored 114 and 105 DraftKings points in his two first round finishes, but averaged just 74 points in his three decision wins, failing to top 79 points in any of those. He’s only landed one takedown on eight attempts in his six UFC fights, and has yet to top 73 significant strikes in any of those fights. While none of that is overly encouraging for his chances of returning value as the most expensive fighter on the slate, he gets a major step down in competition here as he faces a short notice UFC newcomer after his original opponent, #8 ranked Giga Chikadze, dropped out. Whether or not that’s enough for Yusuff to score well with anything besides a first round knockout remains to be seen, but it has us more optimistic in his chances than we otherwise would be. With that said, there’s still a good chance he fails to pay off at his expensive price tag if this fight makes it out of the first round, but he also has a great shot at landing a knockout in the opening five minutes. The odds imply he has an 88% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Shainis is a vertically challenged ground and pound specialist who’s fighting style offers DFS upside, but he finds himself in a really tough matchup here as he makes his short notice UFC debut. If you’ve seen one of his fights, you’ve seen them all, as he consistently looks for takedowns and then beats his opponents up on the ground until the ref pulls him off. Yusuff has a 68% takedown defense, but his last three opponents have all gotten him down at least once. That’s somewhat encouraging for Shainis’ chances, however, Yusuff has generally been a tough guy to hold down and Shainis will be at risk of getting knocked out whenever this fight is on the feet. Shainis looks like a fighter that we may be interested in playing down the road, but we don’t have much excitement for him in this matchup as the biggest underdog on the slate by a wide margin. The odds imply he has a 12% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Raoni Barcelos
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Coming off a pair of decision losses after winning his first five UFC fights, Barcelos has gone the distance in four straight fights after he finished his first three UFC opponents. He notably has a submission win over Chris Gutierrez and a decision victory against Said Nurmagomedov on his record, but shockingly lost to a UFC newcomer in Victor Henry in his last fight, despite entering as a prohibitive -600 favorite. Barcelos had originally been booked to face Trevin Jones in that last fight, but Jones withdrew and Henry stepped in on short notice. However, after Henry stepped in on short notice, the fight got pushed back a month due to COVID protocols, so Henry had some extra time to prepare. Prior to that loss, Barcelos lost a majority decision to a tough Timur Valiev in a fight that Barcelos looked like he could have finished in the second round but instead opted to simply lay on Valiev for the final 30 seconds of the round.
In his last fight, Barcelos threw down in a high-volume brawl against Victor Henry for three straight rounds. While Barcelos landed 134 significant strikes in the fight, he was still outlanded in every round, as Henry landed 181. Henry also finished ahead in significant strikes 222-134. Barcelos was only able to land one of his seven takedown attempts and finished with just 15 seconds of control time. Henry impressively won a unanimous 30-27 decision in a fight the oddsmakers had given him just an 18% chance of winning.
Now 16-3 as a pro, Barcelos has eight wins by KO, two by submission, and six decisions. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a 2014 R2 submission. His other two losses both went the distance. His last 10 fights have all seen the second round, with seven making it to round three, and six going the distance. After starting his career at 145 lb, Barcelos dropped down to 135 lb following his UFC debut, where he’s stayed since.
A BJJ coral belt with a wrestling background, Barcelos is a well rounded fighter who has solid striking, wrestling, and submission skills. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and all three of his early wins in the UFC occurred after the nine minute mark. He has an elite 92% takedown defense, and has only been taken down once in the UFC on 14 opponent attempts. That lone takedown occurred in his 2018 UFC debut, and he hasn’t been taken down in his last six fights. On the other side of things, he’s landed 10 takedowns of his own on 23 attempts (43.5% accuracy). However, he’s only landed one takedown in his last two fights. He both lands and absorbs a good amount of strikes, averaging 5.98 SSL/min (3rd most on the slate) and 5.64 SSA/min (4th most on the slate). At 35 years old and coming off two losing performances, it’s hard to know what version of Barcelos we can expect to see moving forward.
Trevin Jones
5th UFC Fight (1-2, NC)Also looking to bounce back from a pair of losses, Jones took on a pair of really tough UFC newcomers in Saidyokub Kakhramonov and Javid Basharat was submitted in the third round and then lost a decision. Prior to that, he impressively knocked out another dangerous fighter in Mario Bautista, after also knocking out Timur Valiev in Jones’ August 2020 short notice UFC debut. However, that first win was overturned to No Contest when Jones tested positive for THC. Prior to his recent decision loss, Jones hadn’t required the judges in five straight fights. Despite all the finishes, Jones has seen the second round in his last five and nine of his last 10 fights.
In his last fight, Jones got picked apart on the feet by Javid Basharat outside and the fight never hit the mat, with Jones failing on all three of his takedown attempts. Basharat came in with a tactical approach and Jones had a tough time landing many clean shots. Basharat cruised to a unanimous decision win, as he led in striking in all three rounds, finishing ahead in strikes 89-62.
Now 13-8 as a pro, Jones has three wins by KO (not counting the KO win in his debut that was overturned to a No Contest), four by submission, and six decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and has six decision losses. If we include his knockout that was later overturned, Jones’ last three early wins all occurred in the second round.
Overall, Jones is a decently well-rounded fighter, but has really struggled with his takedown accuracy as he’s only landed 2 of his 16 attempts (12.5%). He’s also been considerably outlanded in striking in three of his four UFC fights and averages just 2.90 SSL/min, but 5.00 SSA/min. That generally leaves him reliant on landing finishes to win fights and he’s lost the last three decisions he’s been to. With that said, somehow six of the last eight decisions he’s been to have been split.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Jones will have a 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two are pretty well rounded, but we give the grappling advantage to Barcelos and his elite takedown defense should nullify the grappling of Jones. While we could see Barcelos mix in some wrestling of his own, we expect this fight to play out largely on the feet, with Barcelos setting the pace. Barcelos averages over twice as many significant strikes landed (5.98/min vs. 2.90/min) and it’s hard to see Jones outlanding his way to victory in a decision. More likely, if Jones wants to get his hand raised, he’ll need to hand Barcelos the first KO loss of his career. While that appears unlikely, Jones is notably the only fighter to ever knock out either Timur Valiev or Mario Bautista, and he has sneaky power in his lead right hand that he used to drop both of those guys. We’re still taking Barcelos by decision here, but we wouldn’t be completely shocked to see Jones land a knockout in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “Barcelos R3 or DEC” at -105.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Barcelos is coming off two straight decision losses and needs a win here to get back on track. He’s averaged 99 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with four scores of 96 or more. However, he hasn’t scored above 96 since 2019 and is now 35 years old, so his best days may be behind him. While Barcelos has a solid floor as he averages 5.98 SSL/min with Jones averaging 5.00 SSA/min, he still likely needs a finish to end up in tournament winning lineups at his expensive price tag. He’s only landed one takedown in his last two fights and hasn’t topped two in his last six matches. Working against Barcelos, Jones has never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice. While Barcelos is a BJJ coral belt (above black belt), he only has two submission wins on his record and only one since 2012, which came in 2018. The odds imply Barcelos has a 68% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Jones is a low-volume striker (2.90 SSL/min) with just a 12% takedown accuracy, who’s now facing an opponent with an elite 92% takedown defense. In his two second round KO wins, one of which was later overturned to a No Contest, Jones put up DraftKings scores of 98 and 94. At his cheap price tag that would likely still be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups, but he’s typically not a guy that will put up slate-breaking scores. Now he’ll face a really tough opponent who’s never been knocked out and Jones looks like a hail mary KO or bust DFS play. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Randy Brown
14th UFC Fight (9-4)Rolling in on a three fight winning streak, Brown has won five of his last fights, with his only loss since 2018 coming against Vicente Luque in a 2020 R2 KO. While Brown’s last two fights have both gone the distance, his five before that all ended early.
In his last fight, Brown used his length and head movement to mostly avoid the bombs of Khaos Williams, but he did get clipped a couple of times. Williams landed clean shots in both rounds one and three, but Brown was able to recover and outland his way to victory. After losing the first round on all three scorecards, Brown bounced back to unanimously win the second round as he settled into the fight. Round three was close, as Williams dropped Brown early, but Brown finished strong and two of the three judges still gave him the round. The fight ended with Brown ahead 93-75 in significant strikes and 103-96 in total strikes, but he failed to land any of his four takedowns attempts.
Now 15-4 as a pro, Brown has six wins by KO, five by submission, and four decisions. Five of his six KO wins came in the later rounds, including four in round two, but his last two finishes both came by submission and he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2019. Three of his five submission wins also occurred in the later rounds, with two ending in round two. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has one decision loss. All three of his early losses occurred in the second round and amazingly 9 of his 19 pro fights have ended in round two (6-3). Only one of his last 13 fights has ended in the first round, which was a 2021 submission win over Alex Oliveira.
Overall, Brown is a BJJ brown belt and a well rounded fighter who can compete both on the feet and the mat. He’s landed seven takedowns in his 13 UFC fights, but has never landed more than one in a match. Because Brown is so tall, he has looked vulnerable to leg strikes as he has a wider stance and skinny legs. We saw Luque chew up Brown’s legs with 26 leg strikes before eventually finishing him late in round two of a 2020 match and Belal Muhammad landed 43 on his way to winning a decision over Brown back in 2017.
Francisco Trinaldo
26th UFC Fight (18-7)Stepping into his 26th UFC fight at the ripe age of 44, the ageless Trinaldo is coming off a pair of decision wins after losing a decision to Muslim Salikhov in his first fight after moving up to 170 lb. Trinaldo actually made his 2012 UFC debut at 185 lb, before dropping all the way down to 155 lb for his second UFC fight, where he remained for his next 21 fights before moving up to 170 lb in 2021. Six of his last seven fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2020 R3 KO win over Jai Herbert. Despite his age, Trinaldo is impressively 5-1 in his last six fights.
In his last fight, Trinaldo outpaced Danny Roberts for three straight rounds on his way to a unanimous decision win. He had Roberts hurt early in round two and looked close to finishing him, but wasn’t quite able to put him away. Trinaldo had Roberts hurt again in round three, but again was unable to get him out of there and didn’t appear to have much urgency to do so. The fight ended with Trinaldo ahead 80-36 in significant strikes and 91-44 in total strikes. Trinaldo failed on his only takedown attempt, but did have one official submission attempt and over four minutes of control time.
Now 28-8 as a pro, Trinaldo has nine wins by KO, five by submission, and 14 decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted three times—all in the second round. His other five losses all went the distance. Trinaldo’s last 14 fights have all seen the second round, with 12 making it to round three, and 10 going the distance. His last three losses have all gone the distance, and he hasn’t been finished since 2017, when he got submitted in round two by Kevin Lee.
Overall, Trinaldo is a grizzly vet appropriately nicknamed “Massaranduba” after the extremely durable South American hardwood. Even at 44 years old and 170 lb, punching this guy is like hitting a telephone pole. He’s also a BJJ brown belt and also holds a black belt in kickboxing. He’s generally looking to slow fights down and use his experience to grind out decisions and it’s rare to see big striking totals in his matches, as he averages just 3.15 SSL/min and 2.60 SSA/min. He’ll mix in takedowns when he needs to, but has only landed four in his last eight matches. You do have to wonder when Trinaldo will finally start to slow down at his advanced age and we may not see the cliff coming until it’s too late.
Fight Prediction:
Brown will have a 6” height advantage and 8” reach advantage. He’s also 12 years younger than the 44-year-old Trinaldo.
The stark contrast in ages and body types is what immediately jumps out in this matchup, and it will be interesting to see how Trinaldo handles the massive size discrepancy. Brown’s Achilles heel has been getting his legs attacked, but the last time Trinaldo landed double digit leg strikes against anybody was in 2015 when he landed 16 against Norman Parke. Only one other time (2014) has Trinaldo landed double digit leg strikes in his 25 UFC fight career and we’d be surprised if Trinaldo came in spamming leg strikes. If Brown can continue to effectively control the distance, Trinaldo will be hard pressed to outland him, which will make it tougher for Trinaldo to get his hand raised if this goes the distance as the odds suggest. Trinaldo has also only finished one opponent in the last four years and it’s rare to see his fights end early. That leads us to believe that Brown wins a lower volume decision here, but there’s also a slight chance Brown can land a submission or Trinaldo can connect with a hail mary left hand and get a finish of his own. If the fight does end early, look for that to happen in the later rounds, with round two being the most likely stoppage point, but give us Brown by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Brown DEC or SUB” at -130.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Brown has averaged 83 DraftKings in his nine UFC wins and has only topped 96 points in two of those—a 2016 R2 KO win and a 2021 R1 submission victory. He scored 110 points in both of those but returned scores of just 90, 96, and 60 in his other three UFC finishes. He’s averaged just 70 points in his four UFC decision wins, failing to top 77 points in any of those, and he’s never landed more than one takedown in a fight. Now he faces a longtime veteran in Trinaldo, who’s never been knocked out and has a knack for slowing down fights as he averages just 2.60 SSA/min. At Brown’s high price tag, he appears reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to score well and even a second round finish would have a tougher time getting there. Considering 12 of Brown’s last 13 fights have seen the second round, we’re not overly optimistic about his chances of landing the first round finish that he likely needs to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Trinaldo has averaged just 62 DraftKings points in his last five decision wins, failing to top 73 points in any of those. He does occasionally land a mid-to-late-round finish, but those are few and far between, as his last three and six of his last seven fights have gone the distance. His one early win over that stretch was a R3 KO over Jai Herbert and he still scored just 89 points. He has just one other early victory since 2016, which was a 2018 R2 KO that was good for 98 points. At his cheap price tag, there’s always a slight chance he could serve as a value play even in a lower scoring decision win, but that would require only a couple of other dogs on the slate to win. More likely, he’ll need a finish here to be useful. While Trinaldo has yet to finish anybody since moving up to 170 lb and will be at a massive size disadvantage, Brown has been finished in three of his four career losses. With that said, Trinaldo will basically be reliant on landing a hail mary left hand to finish Brown. We’re of the belief that you typically want to fade Trinaldo fights in DFS as they most often end in low-volume decisions and this one is no different. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Mackenzie Dern
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Coming off a close split-decision win over Tecia Torres, Dern has now gone the distance in her last two and three of her last four fights. Prior to her recent win, Dern lost a five-round decision to Marina Rodriguez, after landing a first round submission win over Nina Nunes and winning a decision over Virna Jandiroba. While Dern has only landed one finish in her last four fights, three of her first four UFC wins ended in first round submissions. She’s won five of her last six fights and her only other career loss came in a 2019 decision against Amanda Ribas.
In her last fight, the first round remained entirely on the feet, with Dern failing to land her only takedown attempt in the first round. While Tecia Torres led in significant strikes 35-28 and in total strikes 37-28 in the round, two of the three judges still scored it for Dern, and in fairness she was able to land a big right hand late in the round. Early in round two, Dern tried to pull guard but Torres was able to initially remain on her feet as she fought off a kimura attempt from Dern who was latched on her. Eventually Torres got dragged to the mat by Dern and while Torress was able to escape the kimura attempt, Dern then transitioned to attacking armbar, and then leg lock. Torress was able to survive the series of submission attempts as the round ended, but Dern clearly won the round. Torress bounced back in round three, outlanding Dern 39-20 in significant strikes in the final five minutes, while also defending all four of Dern’s takedown attempts down the stretch. All three judges awarded the final round to Torres and the second round to Dern, so the decision came down to round one, where two of the three thought Dern had done enough to win. The fight ended with Torres ahead 76-50 in significant strikes and 78-58 in total strikes. No takedowns were laned, with Dern going 0 for 5 and Torres going 0 for 2. Torres also actually finished ahead in control time 2:54-2:24, largely due to Dern going for an extended armbar attempt off her back in the second round, where Torres was technically “controlling” her from top position.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Dern has seven wins by submission and five decisions. Six of her seven submission wins have come in the first round, and her only career fight to make it past the first round and not end in a decision was a 2017 third round armbar victory. She’s never been finished, with both of her losses going the distance. All of her UFC fights have ended in either first round submissions (4-0) or decisions (3-2), and two of her three decision wins have been split.
This will be the second five-round fight of Dern’s career. The first came against a one-dimensional Muay Thai striker in Marina Rodriguez and Dern lost a five-round decision.
Overall, Dern has improved her striking over the course of her UFC career, but still relies mostly on her grappling. She’s landed just 3 of her 33 takedown attempts (9.1% accuracy)
While Dern’s takedown accuracy is terrible, she has such a large bag of tricks to entangle herself with her opponents that she often doesn't rely on traditional takedowns to engage in grappling. Whether that’s pulling guard, grabbing a limb, or pretending to slip on a banana peel and hoping her opponent will join her on the mat, Dern generally does a good job of finding ways to get fights to the ground. As a high level BJJ black belt and ADCC world champion, once Dern gets opponents down she’s exceptional at finishing fights. Interestingly, three of her four UFC submission wins came in fights where she failed to land an official takedown, while two of the three fights where she did land a takedown went the distance.
Yan Xiaonan
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Looking to bounce back from a pair of losses after starting her pro career 15-1, Yan lost a close/questionable split decision to Marina Rodriguez in her last match after getting finished with ground and pound in the second round by Carla Esparza just before that. The TKO loss to Esparza is the only one of Yan’s UFC fights to end early, with her other seven UFC matches all ending with the judges (6-1).
In her last fight, Yan took an early lead in striking in addition to landing a takedown late in the first round to win the first five minutes on all three judges’ score cards. Round two was dead even in significant strikes (14-14), with Yan holding a narrow lead in total strikes (22-20) and tacking on another takedown and leading in control time 1:29-0:28. Nevertheless, two of the three judges scored it for Rodriguez, in what ultimately was the pivotal round in the fight. Rodriguez led the dance in round three, outlanding Yan 40-18 in significant strikes and 41-19 in total strikes to squeak out a close decision win. The fight ended with Rodriguez ahead 72-56 in significant strikes and 79-66 in total strikes, while Yan led in takedowns 2-0.
Now 15-3 as a pro, Yan has seven wins by KO and eight decisions. She has one TKO loss, one by submission (R1 2010), and one decision defeat. After 8 of her first 10 pro fights ended early, including seven in the first round, her last eight matches have all seen round two, with seven going the distance.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Yan’s career, which leaves her championship round cardio a mystery, but she’s accustomed to fighting for a full 15 minutes.
Overall, Yan relies almost entirely on her striking to win fights, but will mix in occasional takedowns. She has sort of an average 65.2% takedown defense, having been taken down 8 times on 23 attempts. However, four of the five opponents to try and take her down have landed at least one of their attempts, with three landing two or more. The only opponent to try and fail to take her down was Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who missed on her only attempt, has just an 18% career takedown accuracy, and was in the midst of a five fight skid. We saw Yan get absolutely dominated on the mat by Carla Esparza in her second most recent fight and looked helpless off her back in that match. While Yan doesn’t have crazy power, she’s a solid striker and will mix in spinning backfists to try and land finishes. She also averages a respectable 5.66 SSL/min, while only absorbing 3.77/min. She outlanded her opponents in her first six UFC fights, before trailing in her last two.
Fight Prediction:
Yan will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 63” reach. Dern is also four years younger than the 33-year-old Yan.
This sets up as your classic grappler versus striker matchup, although Dern has shown improved striking over the years. Nevertheless, she won’t want to compete in a kickboxing battle against Yan, and we expect Dern to try and get this fight to the ground by any means necessary. Historically, Dern has found the most success landing submissions in the first round, with only one of her seven career submission wins coming after round one. With that said, she came close to landing second round finishes in each of her last two fights. While she has 13 official submission attempts in her nine UFC matches, only one of those came later than the second round and she hasn’t looked as dangerous in the later rounds. So if she does get a submission win here, we like it to come in the first 10 minutes and most likely in the opening five. If Yan can survive the first two rounds, she has a good shot at winning the later rounds to pull off the upset in a potential close decision. However, we don’t really see her finishing Dern unless she connects with a perfect spinning backfist, so a decision win looks like her only realistic path to victory. With that said, we still like Dern’s chances of getting this fight to the ground early and locking up a submission, as she’ll have a massive grappling advantage. Give us Dern by R1 submission here.
Our favorite bet here is “Dern R1 SUB” at +340.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Dern has averaged 88 DraftKings points in her seven UFC wins, and if we break that down further she’s averaged 103 DraftKings points in her four first round submission victories and 67 in her three decision wins. She also notably scored 49 points in a five-round decision loss in her only fight to last longer than three rounds. Only once has she topped 106 points, which came in a late first round submission win over Nina Nunes where Dern finished with four minutes of control time. She’s only landed 3 of her 33 takedown attempts in the UFC, and has never landed more than one in a fight. She often resorts to jumping guard or dragging opponents to the mat by a limb, which doesn’t score points in DFS and makes it tougher for her to put up really big scores. That’s especially problematic when she checks in with an expensive price tag as is the case here. Despite her grappling nature, we actually prefer her on FanDuel, where she can score from submission attempts, which she’s accumulated in bunches at times. For example, she scored “just” 102 DraftKings points in a first round submission win over Randa Markos, but that was good for 130 points on FanDuel. To end up in the winning DraftKings lineup, she’ll likely need both a first round submission win AND for almost all of the other expensive priced fighters to score below 105-110 points. That’s certainly possible but we wouldn’t say likely. The odds imply she has a 68% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Yan is a pure striker, but will mix in occasional takedowns, although we’d be shocked to see her voluntarily go to the ground with Dern. That leaves Yan entirely reliant on her striking to both score well and win this fight. She is a better striker than Dern, but the gap is smaller than Dern’s advantage over Yan on the mat. So if this fight does hit the ground, there’s a really good chance that Yan never gets a chance to return to her feet. It’s far less likely that Yan, who’s last six wins have all come by decision, knocks out Dern, who’s never been finished. That likely leaves Yan reliant on surviving and outlasting Dern to take over in the later rounds and squeak out a decision win. The last fighter to do that was Marina Rodriguez, who scored 89 DraftKings points and 111 points on FanDuel in the five-round decision win. At her cheaper price tag, that would likely be enough for Yan to crack winning tournament lineups, but there’s always a slight chance we see multiple dogs land finishes and she still ends up being left out. The odds imply she has a 32% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
We recently partnered with PrizePicks, who offer a new way to play DFS. Instead of competing against other users, you simply pick the over/under on two or more fighters' stat lines (i.e. fight time or fantasy points scored). Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Jotko Over 45.5 SS
For the rest of our top PrizePicks plays check out our DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content at: patreon.com/mmadfs.
