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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Montana De La Rosa
11th UFC Fight (5-4-1)De La Rosa was originally scheduled to fight Stephanie Egger here, but Egger dropped out and Aldrich was announced as the replacement on September 22nd, with 15 days to prepare.
Looking to bounce back from a pair of losses, De La Rosa is just 1-3-1 in her last five fights, but has been facing some really tough competition. Her most recent loss came in a second round submission against Tatiana Suarez, and before that she lost a decision to Maycee Barber. That came just after De La Rosa notched her only win since February 2020 in a June 2021 R2 ground and pound TKO over Ariane Lipski. That came just after De La Rosa fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a majority draw and lost a decision to Viviane Araujo. You have to respect De La Rosa for her willingness to fight anybody, but she definitely should be looking for a new agent.
Now 12-8-1 as a pro, De La Rosa has one win by TKO (R2 2021), eight submissions, and three decision victories. Seven of her nine finishes occurred in the later rounds, with four of those ending in round two and three in round three. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has five decision defeats. Her lone KO/TKO loss came in the third round of a 2017 LFA fight against Cynthia Calvillo, while she got submitted just before that in the first round of a 2016 match against Mackenzie Dern. Both of those fights notably took place at 115 lb, before De La Rosa moved back up to 125 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017, and has stayed since. Her other submission loss came in the second round against Tatiana Suarez in her most recent fight, so she’s only been losing to really quality competition.
Overall, De La Rosa started out as a pure grappler/wrestler but has been steadily improving her striking over the years. However, she doesn’t land a ton of striking volume and averages just 2.47 SSL/min and 3.06 SSA/min. She’s only landed more than 56 significant strikes once in 10 Octagon appearances. In her 10 UFC fights, she’s landed 15 takedowns on 47 attempts (31.9% accuracy), while her opponents took her down 6 times on 17 attempts (64.7% defense). She hasn’t submitted anybody since her third UFC match back in 2019 and all of her UFC submission wins came against low level talents.
JJ Aldrich
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Aldrich stepped into this matchup with only a couple of weeks to prepare and just six weeks after she last competed on August 26th. In that last fight, Aldrich got taken down three times by Liang Na, but outlasted her cardiovascularly challenged opponent and landed a late R2 ground and pound TKO, which was Aldrich’s first finish since 2016 and only early win in the UFC. Prior to that, Aldrich lost a decision in an absolutely abysmal performance where Aldrich got absolutely spanked for three straight rounds by Ariane Lipski, who had been knocked out in three of her previous four fights and came in as a +280 underdog. Aldrich pathetically failed to land any of her 12 takedown attempts against the meh 55% takedown defense of Lipski, while Lipski landed both of her takedown attempts against the previously solid 75% defense of Aldrich. Maybe Aldrich came into that fight hiding an injury, but she didn’t even look like her normal mediocre self as Lipski outlanded her 101-49 in significant strikes, in addition to winning the grappling exchanges. Just before that, Aldrich got submitted in the second round by Erin Blanchfield, but at least gave a good account of herself, as she was impressively able to stuff all four of Blanchfield’s takedown attempts, but got caught with a standing guillotine midway through round two that ended the fight. Leading up to her recent pair of losses, Aldrich won three straight decisions over Cortney Casey, Vanessa Demopoulos, and Gillian Robertson, after losing a 2020 split decision to Sabina Mazo. Aldrich also has a win over Polyana Viana on her record and overall has fared pretty well against grapplers. Ten of Aldrich’s 13 UFC fights went the distance (7-3), while she got knocked out by Maycee Barber in the second round of a 2019 match, in addition to her second round submission loss to Blanchfield, and recent R2 TKO win over Na.
Now 12-6 as a pro, Aldrich has three KO/TKO wins and nine decision wins. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has three decision defeats. Her first submission loss occurred in her second pro fight, with the other coming in 2022. Two of her three knockout wins also came very early in her career and after three of her first four career fights ended early, Aldrich has gone the distance in 11 of her last 14 fights. Aldrich started her career at 115 lb, before moving up to 125 lb in 2019.
Overall, Aldrich has okay boxing and has started mixing in more takedown attempts recently. After she landed just one takedown on two attempts in her first three 125 lb UFC fights, she landed 8 on 33 attempts in her last six fights. She has a pretty decent 65% career takedown defense, although we have seen that falter some in her last couple of fights, where she got taken down multiple times in each match. Aldrich only averages 4.02 SSL/min and rarely puts up big striking totals, failing to land more than 60 significant strikes in 10 of her 13 UFC matches.
Fight Prediction:
De La Rosa will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while also being three years younger than the 31-year-old Aldrich.
De La Rosa is generally looking to rely on her wrestling to win fights and Aldrich’s previously solid takedown defense has looked more penetrable in her last couple of fights, where she got taken down five times on just six attempts from those two opponents. Perhaps that was just a blip in the radar or maybe there’s more to it, only time will tell. De La Rosa will surely put it to the test and also isn’t helpless on the feet. While Aldrich is coming off a ground and pound TKO win, she’s not much of a threat to finish fights unless she gets an opponent like Liang Na who death gasses after five minutes. That leaves Aldrich with a pretty narrow path to victory, as she needs to outland De La Rosa on the feet, while also avoiding getting taken down. That’s certainly possible, but there are far more ways for De La Rosa to win. In addition to holding the wrestling and grappling advantages, De La Rosa’s striking has improved some and Aldrich looked terrible in her second most recent fight against Lipski. So give us De La Rosa by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “De La Rosa’s ML” at -136.
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DFS Implications:
De La Rosa typically relies on her wrestling to win fights, which leaves her with a higher scoring floor on DraftKings than FanDuel. However, four of her five UFC wins came early, and her finishing upside keeps her in play on both sites. She’s gone just 1-3-1 in her five UFC decisions, scoring 81 points in her lone victory, but she’s faced a ton of really tough competition. While Aldrich isn’t terrible (normally), this will be a step down in competition for De La Rosa and Aldrich did get taken down five times between her last two fights. That’s encouraging for De La Rosa’s chances of getting this fight to the mat, and at her reasonable price tag she may not need to put up a huge score to crack winning lineups. With that said, Aldrich has made a career out of being the turd in the punchbowl and she loves nothing more than slowing fights down and ruining them for DFS. And prior to her last two fights, Aldrich’s takedown defense had been solid, so there’s no guarantee that De La Rosa will be able to get her down and keep her there. We don’t see anyone scoring well here in a pure striking battle, so it will be essential that De La Rosa land takedowns. The odds imply De La Rosa has a 57% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Aldrich is coming off a career best performance in a teed up matchup that even she couldn’t fumble. All she had to do was simply survive for five minutes and wait for Liang Na to gas out, which is exactly what happened. Then Aldrich was able to just get on top and force a stoppage through ground and pound. That resulted in her scoring 107 DraftKings points, but it should in no way be taken as an indication for her future scoring potential. Prior to that she had averaged just 71 DraftKings points in her first seven UFC wins, which all ended in decisions. She only topped 69 points in two of those decision wins, and never scored more than 86 DraftKings points in any of them. And just prior to her recent finish, she fell on her face in a decision loss, where she came in as a -360 favorite and proceeded to lose every round. So it’s hard to have much confidence in her as she faces a tougher opponent here. Outside of some freak injury, Aldrich’s only realistic path to victory will be to keep this fight standing, slow it down, and narrowly outland De La Rosa in a low-volume striking battle. Even at her cheapish price tag, a win in that style of fight won’t be enough for her to be useful, which means we don’t have much interest in playing her. The odds imply Aldrich has a 43% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Aoriqileng
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Looking to bounce back from the first knockout loss of his career, Aoriqileng got finished by Aiemann Zahabi in just 64 seconds. Prior to that loss, Aoriqileng kept his UFC hopes alive with a close decision win over Jay Perrin, following a R1 TKO win over a terrible Cameron Else. Leading up to those two wins, Aoriqileng lost a high-volume decision in his April 2021 UFC debut against Jeff Molina and then got outwrestled by Cody Durden to lose another decision after that. Three of his five UFC fights went the distance (1-2), with the other two ending in first round knockouts (1-1).
Now 24-10 as a pro, Aoriqileng has eight wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and 15 decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has seven decision losses. Aoriqileng had mostly been fighting at 135 lb before joining the UFC, but dropped down to 125 lb for his UFC debut and stayed at the weight class for his second UFC fight. However, after starting 0-2 at 125 lb he moved back up to 135 lb, where he’s since gone 2-1 with the organization.
Overall, Aoriqileng is a fearless striker who has no problem walking through the fire to land shots of his own, which often results in him absorbing a lot of damage. He’ll also mix in takedowns, but doesn’t look like much of a submission threat on the mat and is primarily looking for ground and pound. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed 5 of his 11 takedown attempts (45.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 18 attempts (55.6% defense). He averages 6.04 SSL/min and 7.12 SSA/min. Aoriqileng has been training at Fight Ready since 2022 so he has a good team around him.
Johnny Munoz
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Continuing to trade wins and losses over his last six fights, Munoz is coming off a decision loss to Daniel Santos, where Munoz was only able to land one of his eight takedown attempts, but was content with pulling guard in the match. That resulted in Santos finishing with three official takedowns and nearly 11 minutes of control time, while Munoz unsuccessfully looked for submissions off his back. Prior to that, Munoz saved his spot on the UFC roster with a decision win over a low-level opponent in Liudvik Sholinian, who came in 0-1 in the UFC and also lost on The Ultimate Fighter. Munoz surprisingly only attempted a single takedown in the first two rounds of that fight, before landing two of his three attempts in the third round to secure the victory. Leading up to those two decisions, Munoz got knocked out in the first round by Tony Gravely, after landing his only UFC finish in a second round submission against a very low-level opponent in Jamey Simmons. Looking back one fight further, Munoz lost a decision to Nate Maness in his 2020 UFC debut.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Munoz has two wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and three decision victories. While his first six finishes all occurred in the first round, his last three all came in round two. He’s also been knocked out once in the first round, with his other two defeats ending in decisions. Seven of his last eight fights made it to the second round, with three of those ending in second round rear-naked choke victories and the other four going the distance.
Overall, Munoz is a BJJ black belt and a multi-time IBJJF world champion, who is generally looking to take opponents down and hunt for submissions. He started training judo and jiu-jitsu at a very young age as his father was also a fighter. In his five UFC fights, he landed 7 takedowns on 32 attempts (21.9% accuracy), while his opponents took him down on 4 of 7 attempts (42.9% defense). His chin looks somewhat dubious after seeing how easily he went down in the Gravely fight, but in fairness to him, that’s the only time he’s ever been finished. Munoz only averages 3.00 SSL/min and 2.59 SSA/min and doesn’t offer a ton on the feet, although has shown some improvements to his striking since he joined the UFC. He said he wants to really showcase his grappling in this match and predicted a first round submission win.
Fight Prediction:
Munoz will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler matchup where Munoz will be doing everything he can to get the fight to the ground to look for a submission. Aoriqileng has two submission losses on his record, but both of those occurred early in his career in 2016 and 2017. Aoriqileng has struggled with being taken down by grapplers, as Cody Durden took him down five times and Jay Perrin landed three takedowns against him. That’s encouraging for Munoz’s chances of getting this fight to the mat where he needs it and he’s got a pretty good shot at locking up a submission or at least grinding out a decision on the ground. While neither one of these two have been very impressive, Aoriqileng’s below average 55% takedown defense is enough for us to take the slight underdog in Munoz and we’ll say he locks up a submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Munoz’s ML” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Aoriqileng is four months removed from the first knockout loss of his career and is just 2-3 in the UFC, with both of those wins coming against low-level opponents. His most recent victory came in a close decision over Jay Perrin, where Aoriqileng only scored 65 DraftKings points, after notching 125 points in a R1 TKO over a terrible Cameron Else just before that. While Aoriqileng has shown the ability to put up big striking numbers, he’s all offense and no defense. He leads the slate in significant strikes absorbed at 7.12/min and has also struggled with being taken down. That means we’re generally looking to target both sides of his fights, as there’s a lot of scoring upside for both him and his opponents. However, Munoz should be looking to take him down and control him, while looking for a submission, which will make it hard for Aoriqileng to land a ton of striking volume. That will leave him more reliant on landing a knockout, unless Munoz pulls guard multiple times and Aoriqileng can hang out in top position and land ground and pound. That creates some potential for him to score decently in a decision win on DraftKings, but he’ll still be reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply Aoriqileng has a 49% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Munoz is a BJJ black belt and is always dangerous looking for submissions on the mat, but he’s pretty one-dimensional and hasn’t impressed us with his striking. He’s only landed one submission in five UFC fights, which came against an ultra low-level opponent in Jamey Simmons. Munoz has struggled with his takedown accuracy (21%), making it harder to trust him to be able to get fights to the mat where he wants them. However, Aoriqileng hasn’t been great at defending takedowns, with just a 55% takedown defense. Aoriqileng has also been submitted twice in the past, and if Munoz can get the fight to the ground, he should have a decent shot at locking up a submission, or at least grinding out a grappling-heavy decision win. While he only scored 83 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win and just 91 points in his one submission victory, at his reasonable price tag he may not need to put up a huge score to sneak into winning lineups. Aoriqileng also absorbs the most significant strikes on the slate at 7.12/min, which could help Munoz to bolster his scoring. The odds imply Munoz has a 51% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Kanako Murata
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Murata will be making her return to the Octagon 28 months after suffering an arm injury against Virna Jandiroba in a June 2021 post R2 TKO loss. Prior to that loss, Murata won eight straight fights, with four submissions and four decision wins. She made her UFC debut in November 2020 and won a wrestling-heavy decision over Randa Markos, where Murata landed four of her nine takedown attempts, with over nine minutes of control time. Just before making her UFC debut, Murata won the vacant Invicta Strawweight belt against Emily Ducote, who has since joined the UFC. Murata came dangerously close to getting armbarred multiple times in that five round fight, but showed good patience and fight IQ to get out of danger. Prior to that she had notably submitted four straight opponents.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Murata has two TKO wins, four submissions, and six decision victories. Both of her TKO wins occurred in her first three pro fights and her last four finishes all came by submission, split evenly across the first two rounds. She’s also been finished in both of her losses, with a post R2 TKO and a R3 submission. Murata has competed at both 115 lb and 125 lb, but her last four fights were all at 115 lb.
Overall, Murata is a stout wrestler who looks to dominate opponents on the mat. In her two UFC fights, she landed 4 of her 10 takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while no one has tried to take her down. She doesn’t land many significant strikes, averaging just 2.08 SSL/min and 2.60 SSA/min, with totals of just 23 and 29 in her two UFC fights. We often see her get caught up in armbar attempts from her opponents, which is what caused her arm injury in her last fight, although she’s never been submitted via armbar. Now she’ll be going against an opponent with three armbar submission wins on her record.
Vanessa Demopoulos
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Demopoulos recently had a three-fight win streak snapped in a decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, where Demopoulos failed to land any of her four takedown attempts and got outlanded 139-68 in significant strikes as she lost every round in the fight. Prior to that loss, Demopoulos won a pair of decisions over Maria Oliveira and Jinh Yu Frey, after locking up a first round armbar against Silvana Gomez Juarez, who nearly knocked Demopoulos out just before that. Demopoulos also arguably lost the fight against Frey, so she’s had several close calls. Leading up to that stretch of wins, Demopoulos made her UFC debut in August 2021 up a weight class in a terrible matchup against J.J. Aldrich and lost a decision. Demopoulos originally attempted to punch her ticket to the UFC through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a smothering decision to Cory McKenna and was forced to return to the LFA. She then lost a decision to Loopy Godinez, but bounced back with a R1 TKO win that was good enough for the UFC to give her a shot.
Now 9-5 as a pro, Demopoulos has one TKO win (R1 2021), four submissions, and four decision victories. Three of her four submission wins ended in first round armbars, with the other ending in a R4 inverted triangle choke. She’s never been finished, with all five of her career losses going the distance. Four of her five UFC fights went the distance, and three of her eight career decisions have been split/majority (2-1).
Overall, Demopoulos is a BJJ black belt and relies largely on her grappling to win fights. While she doesn’t mind mixing it up on the feet, she’s a sloppy striker and tends to be pretty hittable. While her grappling is adequate, her wrestling is still a work in progress and between her five UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, she only landed three of her 22 takedown attempts (13.6% accuracy). On the other side of things, her opponents got her down on two of their four attempts (50% defense). All five of her UFC fights have been against strikers, but she did face a wrestler on DWCS and got controlled on the mat for 11 minutes, while failing to land either of her two takedown attempts. Demopoulos had been training at Fight Ready in Arizona, but moved to Colorado and joined Factory X in January 2023. She said the team at Fight Ready had some sort of disagreement with her manager and told her to either find a new manager or find a new gym. She chose the latter. However, after losing her first match with Factory X, she then decided to move again, and is now in Las Vegas training at UFC PI with more of a personalized team around her. It will be interesting to see if that helps or hurts her. She notably missed weight by 1.5 lb for her last fight and has said she cuts a lot of weight, so it will be important to monitor her closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Demopoulos will have a 1” height advantage, but Murata will have a 3” reach advantage and is five years younger than the 35-year-old Demopoulos.
Demopoulos has exclusively faced strikers so far in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how she fares against a wrestler. She has no problem working off her back and may actually prefer it, as she loves looking for armbars. We’ve seen Murata be close to getting armbarred in the past, and that’s actually how she broke her arm in her last fight, but we still expect her to look to wrestle here. It’s been so long since Murata last fought, she may have some ring rust to knock off and if she’s not sharp early she could get submitted in the first round. However, armbars are tougher to complete the longer fights go on, once everyone is sweaty and slippery. That means Demopoulos’ best chance of pulling off the upset will be in a first round submission and Murata is the superior wrestler. Neither of them are exceptional strikers, but Demopoulos is more willing to throw down in a brawl, although she’s also more hittable, averaging 5.61 SSA/min. We expect this to play out as a grappling battle, with Murata holding top position and looking for chokes, while Demopoulos looks for armbars off her back. They’re each capable of submitting the other, but the most likely outcome is that Murata wins a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in SUB” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Murata’s wrestling-heavy style lends itself to scoring better on DraftKings compared to FanDuel and in the decision win in her UFC debut she scored 88 DraftKings, but just 71 points on FanDuel. She then broke her arm in her next fight and now hasn’t competed in 28 months, so her current form remains somewhat of a mystery. However, assuming she comes back looking like her normal self, she has the ability to rack up takedowns and control time and will also look for submissions on the mat. However, Demopoulos is a BJJ black belt and has never been finished, lowering Murata’s chances of finding the finish she needs to score well on FanDuel. She still has the potential to score well on DraftKings in a decision, although at her expensive price tag she’ll need to do more than she did in her last decision win. She’ll also have to be somewhat defensive from top position on the mat, as Demopoulos is very active off her back and will be looking to throw up submissions. That makes it tougher to fully trust Murata, but if she can avoid getting submitted she should have a solid scoring floor and ceiling combination. The odds imply Murata has a 74% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Demopoulos’ aggressive fighting style typically results in uptempo fights and she averages the third most significant strikes absorbed per minute on the slate at 5.61/min. However, she generally prefers to hunt for submissions on the mat then trade strikes on the feet. Her takedown accuracy has been bad (13.6%), but she’ll also pull guard at times just to get fights to the ground. She’s only actually completed one submission in her last eight fights, which came against the highly submittable Silvana Gomez Juarez. Demopoulos’ other gour UFC fights all went the distance (2-2), and she was fortunate to have a split decision go her way or else she would be just 1-3 with the judges. She managed to score 100 DraftKings points in her last decision win, but keep in mind that came against a terrible one-dimensional striker. Demopoulos’ previous decision win only scored 70 points, after she totaled 92 points in a first round submission victory. She’s exclusively fought striker so far in the UFC, but will now be taking on a wrestler. That will make it hard for Demopoulos to land many takedowns, but should give her opportunities to look for a submission off her back. While it will be tougher for her to put up a really big score in a defensive submission win, at her cheap price tag it would still likely be enough for her to be useful. It would be more surprising to see her win a decision, so she looks like a submission or bust play. This will be the second time she’s switched gyms in the last year, so she hasn’t had any sort of consistency in her training, which adds a little volatility to the mix. The odds imply Demopoulos has a 26% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Mateus Mendonca
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Mendonca will be looking to bounce back from his first career loss in his recent UFC debut against a really tough Javid Basharat. Despite the decision loss, Mendonca put up a good effort and showed he could go 15 hard minutes against legitimate competition. So it’s interesting that Mendonca decided to drop down to 125 lb now, after spending his entire career at 135 lb. Prior to that loss, Mendonca landed a 48 second first round knockout on DWCS In September 2022 to punch his ticket to the UFC. Those are Mendonca’s only two fights in the last three years, so he hasn’t been especially active lately, after he fought nine times 26 months on the Brazilian regional scene to start his career.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Mendonca has three wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. All seven of his finishes occurred in the first round, while all of his fights that lasted longer than five minutes ended with the judges (3-1). His only career loss went the distance in his recent UFC debut. Mendonca competed at 135 lb for the first 11 fights of his career, but will now be dropping down to 125 lb for his second UFC fight.
Overall, Mendonca trains at Chute Boxe with Charles Oliveira and is a pretty well rounded fighter with a good gym around him. And at just 24 years old, he should be improving all the time. He shoots for a high number of takedowns, with average accuracy, and is typically hunting for submissions on the mat, although he’s only completed one in his last eight fights. In his recent UFC debut, he landed 2 of his 11 takedown attempts, while he got taken down three times on five attempts by Basharat. We generally see Mendonca aggressively pushing forward and forcing the action and he likes to throw flying knees to work his way into the clinch along the fence. With Mendonca dropping down to 125 lb for the first time, it will be important to monitor him closely at weigh-ins.
Nate Maness
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Maness is 11 months removed from a first round submission loss to Tagir Ulanbekov, in what was Maness’ first career fight down at 125 lb. Maness actually made his UFC debut all the way up at 145 lb in August 2020, and had previously fought as heavy as 155 lb. Following a decision win in his debut, Maness landed a second round submission in a 140 lb Catchweight fight against Luke Sanders. He continued to cut weight as he then landed a second round KO win against Tony Gravely at 135 lb, to stretch his UFC record to 3-0. Maness stayed at 135 lb for his next fight when he got smothered on the mat for three rounds by Umar Nurmagomedov. Despite owning a 3-1 UFC record, Maness then curiously decided to cut down to 125 lb for his last fight and got submitted in just 131 seconds.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Maness has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. His eight finishes were split evenly across the first two rounds, and he’s never finished an opponent beyond the second round. He’s been knocked out once (R3 2019), submitted once (R1 2022), and has one decision loss (2022). While six of his last eight fights ended early, all but two of those matches made it out of the first round, with three ending in round two and another in round three. He’s fought anywhere from 125 lb to 155 lb in the past, but most of his career was spent at 135 lb.
Overall, Maness is an offensively minded brawler who has good size and length for the 135 lb division, let alone at 125 lb. However, he’s looked pretty hittable, so it will be interesting to see how his chin holds up after cutting the additional weight to get down to 125 lb. While his striking defense hasn’t been great, his 75% takedown defense has been pretty solid. In his five UFC fights, Maness’ opponents got him down on just 7 of their 29 attempts (75.9% defense), while he landed three of his four attempts (75% accuracy). Maness has yet to land more than 33 significant strikes and only averages 1.94 SSL/min, but that has more to do with the fact that he’s faced a series of grapplers and has struggled with being controlled throughout his UFC career. Considering this will just be the second time Maness has ever competed at 125 lb, we’ll still want to pay attention to him on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Maness will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Mendonca is eight years younger than the 32-year-old Maness.
Both of these two are 135 lb fighters who decided to cut down to 125 lb to try and find a competitive advantage, so it’s funny the UFC just matched them up against one another to negate that. Cutting the additional weight adds uncertainty on both sides in terms of cardio and durability. Maness has already made the cut once, but that fight only lasted 131 seconds before he got submitted and it’s hard to take much away from it. Meanwhile, we’ve never seen Mendonca fight at 125 lb, so there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty on both sides. Looking past the weight cut, Mendonca is the better grappler, and will likely be looking to get this fight to the ground. While Maness has a pretty solid takedown defense, when he has been taken down, he hasn’t offered much on the mat. Both of these guys are decent strikers, but Mendonca’s grappling gives him a clear advantage. However, the potential for a bad weight cut on either side makes this fight more of a crap shoot and could leave either one of them exposed to getting easily knocked out. With that said, Mendonca is the younger, more well-rounded fighter, and he’s rightfully the favorite. While there’s a lot of built-in volatility in this matchup, we’ll say Mendonca finishes Maness.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +135.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Mendonca suffered his first career loss in his recent UFC debut and only scored 34 DraftKings points in the decision defeat against a really tough Javid Basharat. However, he still showed a lot of scoring potential as he shot for 11 takedowns in the fight, and 7 of his 10 career wins also ended early. What we don’t know is how his body will react to cutting down to 125 lb for the first time, after his previous 11 fights were all at 135 lb. While he’s never been finished, that could negatively impact his durability and makes it tougher to fully trust him. Mendonca is still just 24 years old and trains at a good gym in Chute Boxe, so he should be constantly improving and it will be interesting to see how he looks at the new weight class. The odds imply Mendonca has a 68% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Maness lost his last two fights, after putting up DraftKings scores of 104 and 100 in his two wins just prior to that, following a 73 point score in a decision win in his UFC debut. He dropped down to 125 lb for the first time in his career in his last fight and proceeded to suffer his only early loss in the UFC, in a 131 second submission. That raises some questions about how he’ll hold up at 125 lb after cutting the additional weight, but we also didn’t get to see enough of him to truly evaluate how he looked. That fight took place 11 months ago and now it’s been almost a year since he last competed and over two years since he won a fight. None of that is very encouraging, but the fact that Mendonca will be dropping down to 125 lb for the first time in his career does add some uncertainty with how his chin and cardio will hold up. That keeps Maness in play for tournaments as a bet on the unknown. Maness’ last two wins both came early and he’s shown finishing upside, even if Mendonca has never been finished before. The odds imply Maness has a 32% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16th UFC Fight (8-7)Kowalkiewicz has now won three straight fights, after losing five in a row prior to that. Her last two victories both went the distance, as she dominated Vanessa Demopoulos on the feet for three rounds, after squeaking by against Silvana Gomez Juarez, despite a massive amount of confusion with the scorecards as the commissioner frantically made a series of last minute handwritten written changes as he brought the scorecards into the Octagon for Buffer to read.. Kowalkiewicz’s five-fight skid was bookended by a pair of wins over Felice Herrig, with the first of those ending in a 2018 decision and the other a 2022 second round submission, after which Herrig retired. That’s Kowalkiewicz’s only early win in her last 17 fights, with her second most recent finish coming all the way back in 2014. That came just after Kowalkiewicz got submitted in the first round by Jessica Penne, following decision losses to Yan Xiaonan, Alexa Grasso, and Michelle Waterson-Gomez, as well as a R1 KO defeat at the hands of Jessica Andrade. Thirteen of Kowalkiewicz’s last 17 fights have gone the distance, with four of those decisions being split.
Now 15-7 as a pro, Kowalkiewicz has one win by TKO, which came in the first round of her 2012 pro debut, three by submission, and 11 decision victories. Three of her four career finishes came in her first five pro fights from 2012 to 2014, with two of those occurring while she was fighting up at 125 lb, before she dropped down to 115 lb in 2014. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Her lone career KO loss came against Jessica Andrade in the first round of a 2018 fight, with both of her submission losses also ending in round one.
Overall, Kowalkiewicz has a background in Muay Thai and has historically relied mostly on her striking, averaging a respectable 5.65 SSL/min and 5.47 SSA/min. However, she’s been looking to grapple a little more recently and after only landing one takedown on seven attempts across her first 10 UFC fights, she’s landed three takedowns on six attempts in her last five matches. Looking at her entire 15 fight UFC career, she’s still only landed 4 of her 13 takedown attempts (30.8% accuracy), but those numbers have at least been improving. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down by her opponents 13 times on 56 attempts (76.8% defense). However, her defensive numbers are somewhat skewed by her first two UFC opponents combining to land just one of their 24 attempts. She also lost the last five fights where she got taken down even once. Kowalkiewicz will look for submissions on the mat, but has only completed one since 2014 and is typically looking to win close decisions. Her fight IQ is dubious at best, which was in full display when she dove head first into the guard of a one-dimensional grappler in Jessica Penne in Kowalkiewicz’s third most recent fight, which ended with Kowalkiewicz getting submitted. However, she did opt not to look for takedowns against another grappler in Vanessa Demopoulos in her last fight, so maybe she’s improving her awareness.
Diana Belbita
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Belbita is fresh off a decision win over a terrible Maria Oliveira, who may be the worst grappler in the division and still took Belbita down twice. Prior to that, Belbita lost a decision against another super low-level one-dimensional striker in Gloria de Paula, who was also able to take Belbita down once. That came just after Belbita notched her first UFC win in a decision over another terrible one-dimensional in Hannah Goldy, who took Belbita down twice. Belbita also got taken down 5 times in a decision loss in her UFC debut against Molly McCann and then got submitted in the first round by a low-level armbar specialist, who Belbita foolishly took down.
Now 15-7 as a pro, Belbita has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and five decision victories. All four of her submission wins came by R2 armbar, while five of her six knockout wins occurred in round one, with the other ending in round three. She’s never been knocked out herself, but she’s been submitted four times and has three decision defeats. Three of her submission losses ended in first round armbars, with the other ending in a second round guillotine. Belbita started her career all the way up at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb in 2016, and then all the way to 115 lb in 2021. The level of competition she had been facing on the regional scene is an absolute joke so take all of her finishes with a grain of salt. Here are the records of the opponents she faced before joining the UFC (beginning with the most recent): 1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 3-1 (L), 0-2, 8-3 (L), 4-1, 0-2, 0-4, 4-3-1 (L), 2-0 (L), 3-0, 0-3, 2-0, 0-0, 0-1.
Overall, Belbita is a Romanian kickboxer who’s dangerous on the feet and throws a good amount of striking volume, averaging 6.59 SSL/min and 5.72 SSA/min. However, she has terrible defensive wrestling and is a liability on the mat. In her five UFC fights, Belbita landed 3 of her 6 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 10 of their 30 attempts (66.7%). The UFC has bent over backwards to give her the most favorable matchups imaginable and she’s still gotten taken down by a series of one-dimensional strikers. While she can win striking battles, she’s such a liability on the mat that she’ll never be able to beat any well-rounded fighters.
Fight Prediction:
Belbita will have a 4” height and reach advantage and is 10 years younger than Kowalkiewicz.
If you combined the fight IQ of these two you would still have less than a full functioning brain as they both make completely head-scratching decisions inside of the Octagon. Kowalkiewicz will go for takedowns when she shouldn’t and fail to attempt any when she should. Meanwhile, Belbita is a one-dimensional kickboxer who took down a one-dimensional armbar specialist in her one early UFC loss. That makes it tough to trust either one of them to make rational decisions, but this is a teed up matchup for Kowalkiewicz to land takedowns and dominate the fight from top position. Not only does Belbita have absolutely dreadful defensive wrestling, she’s also been submitted four times on the mat. While Kowalkiewicz isn’t known for her grappling, she has been working on that aspect of her game lately at American Top Team. If we could actually trust her to commit to her wrestling this would be an absolute lock, but the fact that she’s a complete flake adds a little bit of uncertainty. Nevertheless, we’re picking Kowalkiewicz to win, most likely by decision, but with a chance he locks up a submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Kowalkiewicz ML” at -148.
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DFS Implications:
Kowalkiewicz has only topped 90 DraftKings points twice in 15 UFC appearances, but both of those occurrences were in her last three fights. While her upside is limited by the fact that she only has one early win in her last 17 fights, she averages a respectable 5.65 SSL/min and has also started mixing in more takedown attempts lately. While she’s still not a great grappler, she at least has the ability to try and get the fight to the ground and actually locked up a submission in her third most recent fight. While that limited skillset normally wouldn’t be enough to get us excited, she’s getting a dream grappling matchup here against an opponent in Belbita who gets taken down by literally everyone. Belbita also averages 5.72 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate), so Kowalkiewicz has a really good shot at filling up the stat sheet with a combination of striking and grappling. Further adding to her appeal, Belbita has been submitted in four of her seven pro losses, and if Kowalkiewicz was ever going to get another submission, this would be the spot to do it. Another reason to like Kowalkiewicz in tournaments is her low ownership, as she’s been just 10-12% owned in all of her last three fights. While we should see that number rise a little here after she won all three of those fights, she’ll still be low owned on this smaller slate where it will be essential to include low owned fighters in large-field tournaments if you want to avoid highly duped lineups. While it’s fair to question Kowalkiewicz’s ceiling, this is as good a spot as she could ask for and she has multiple ways to score well. The odds imply Kowalkiewicz has a 59% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Belbita has shown the ability to score pretty well in decisions, with DraftKings scores of 91 and 89 in her two UFC victories, both of which went the distance. However, she’s also been extremely prone to getting taken down, controlled, and submitted. The UFC must be letting her pick all of her recent matchups, as she faced the absolute bottom of the division in her last three fights and still got taken down in each of those matches by three low-level one-dimensional strikers. Now she faces a tougher test in Kowalkiewicz, who still comes from a striking background, but has begun mixing in a few more takedown attempts recently. That’s concerning for Belbita’s ability to rack up the striking volume she needs to score well in a decision, but Kowalkiewicz’s fight IQ has been sketchy at best, so there’s always a chance she foregoes the path of least resistance and just dukes it out on the feet with Belbita. While we’d be surprised to see that happen, it’s certainly not impossible. Belbita is the taller and longer fighter, who also has more power in her shots. So if she can keep the fight standing, she has a really good chance of outlanding her way to victory in a high-volume decision. At her cheap price tag, that could easily be enough for her to serve as a value play. Just keep in mind, that’s not how this fight should play out and it’s more likely that Belbita will spend enough time on her back that she loses a decision, or potentially even gets submitted. It’s also possible that Belbita gets controlled for the first round, but then wins rounds two and three and fails to score well in a decision. So she’ll really need to avoid getting put on her back for any extended period of time if she wants to put up a decent score. The odds imply Belbita has a 41% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Ion Cutelaba
16th UFC Fight (6-8-1)Cutelaba finally snapped a three fight skid with a first round knockout over Tanner Boser, who was making the move down from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight. Prior to that, Cutelaba got knocked out in the second round by Kennedy Nzechukwu after getting submitted in the first round by both Johnny Walker and Ryan Spann. Cutelaba is just 3-6-1 in his last 10 fights and only has one early win in his last eight matches, which was his recent TKO victory over Boser. Cutelaba’s only other win in his last eight fights came in a 2021 decision over Devin Clark, which came right after Cutelaba fought Dustin Jacoby to a draw.
Now 17-9-1 as a pro, Cutelaba has 13 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions (both by Omoplata early in his career), and two decision victories. Fourteen of his 15 finishes occurred in round one, with the one exception being a 2013 TKO that occurred 29 seconds into the second round of his fourth pro fight. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted four more, has one decision defeat, and one DQ loss. Cutelaba has always been a fast starter and 20 of his 28 pro fights have ended in the first round (14-5, NC), with three more ending in round two (1-2), and one ending in round three (0-1).
Overall, Cutelaba is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but tends to slow down later on in fights. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo, and Judo, but early in his UFC career he was content with duking it out on the feet, as he only took down two of his first nine UFC opponents, and didn’t even attempts a takedown in five of those fights. However, he’s landed 24 of his 44 takedown attempts in his last six fights, with at least one landed in all of those matches and multiple in four of them. Looking at his entire UFC career, he’s landed 34 of his 58 takedown attempts (58.6% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents on 7 of 31 attempts (77.4% defense). While Cutelaba is extremely dangerous, he’s only landed one finish in his career beyond the first round. And since joining the UFC, he’s just 2-4-1 in fights that have made it past round one. With that said, he’s still only lost one decision in his career, although he’s only been to four (2-1-1).
Philipe Lins
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Fresh off a low-volume decision win over Maxim Grishin, Lins has won three straight fights at Light Heavyweight, after losing his first two UFC fights at Heavyweight. Lins spent an extended amount of time pushing Grishin up against the cage in that recent win, finishing with eight and half minutes of control time, while only landing one of his three takedown attempts. While that fight took place in June 2023, it had originally been scheduled for October 2022, but Lines dropped out after the slate had already started. Dropping out of fights has been an ongoing problem for Lins and after losing his first two UFC fights at Heavyweight, Lins had six straight fights canceled leading up to his Light Heavyweight debut, where he won a decision over Marcin Prachnio. He then had two more fights canceled, before coming back to knock out a washed up Ovince St. Preux in just 49 seconds, leading up to his recent decision win over Grishin.
Now 17-5 as a pro, Lins has nine wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decision victories. Six of his nine knockout wins ended in round two, two ended in round one, and another ended in round four. All four of his submission wins occurred in round one (2006, 2014, 2014, and 2018). He’s been knocked out in four of his five career losses, with the other ending in a decision. Three of those four KO losses came in round one, with the other ending in round two. While three of his five UFC fights went the distance, 13 of his last 16 fights ended early. Lins started his career at Light Heavyweight, before moving up to Heavyweight in 2018 following two straight knockout losses at Light Heavyweight. Of Lins’ four KO losses, one came in his last UFC Heavyweight fight, where he got knocked out in the first round, while the other three occurred at Light Heavyweight from 2014 to 2017. He only has one early win since 2018.
Overall, Lins is a BJJ black belt with four first round submission wins on his record, but has only landed one submission since 2014, which came in a 2018 R1 guillotine choke. After not attempting a takedown in his two UFC Heavyweight fights, Lins has gone 5 for 14 on his takedown attempts in his last three fights (35.7% accuracy), while he’s defended all four of the takedowns against him. However, the closest thing to a wrestler he’s faced has been Maxim Grishin, who has a 16% career takedown accuracy and went 0 for 3 on his attempts against Lins. Lins is a patient striker who’s often looking to counter and only averages 3.59 SSL/min. He’s yet to top 64 significant strikes landed in a UFC fight, and has also never absorbed more than 74.
Fight Prediction:
Lins will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Cutelaba is nine years younger than the 38-year-old Lins.
Cutelaba always makes for a good time, as he comes out of the gates hot looking for first round finishes in all of his fights and then slows down considerably when he’s unable to find one. We’ve yet to see anyone take Lins down in the UFC, but he also hasn’t faced any wrestlers like Cutelaba, so it will be interesting to see how the grappling exchanges go. Lins is a BJJ black belt with four first round submission wins on his record and Cutelaba has been very prone to getting submitted when he finds himself in a bad spot. However, we’ve yet to see Lins even attempt a submission in the UFC, so it’s hard to know how good his grappling actually is. Both guys throw heavy punches and have somewhat suspect durability, which means there’s a good chance this ends early, likely in the opening round and a half. Cutelaba is always live to land a first round knockout, and has shown the ability to occasionally grind out a decision win on the mat, but he’s also a wild man who completely wilts at times and you never know what you’re going to get from him. In his 15-fight UFC career, he’s only won back-to-back fights once, which came in a pair of first round knockouts in 2017 and 2018, and he’s gone just 1-4 following his previous five wins. Both guys have the ability to finish the other in round one, but if the fight makes it to round two then Lins is the more likely of the two to get a second round finish. It’s also possible the fight slows down considerably after five minutes and they limp to a close decision, as Lins as shown he has no problem holding guys up against the cage for extended periods of time. So there are a few ways this could go and it’s a volatile matchup, which leaves us more inclined to take the plus money on Lins, although we don’t really trust either of these two.
Our favorite bet here is “Lins’ ML” at +126.
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DFS Implications:
Cutelaba is coming off his first win in his last four fights and may have saved his job in the process when he knocked out Tanner Boser in the first round. Prior to that, Cutelaba had been finished in under a round and a half in three straight fights, and it’s been two years since he required the judges. In his six UFC wins, Cutelaba averaged 110 DraftKings points, scoring 107 or more in each of his last five victories. So while he doesn’t win very often, when he does, he almost always scores well. While he’s a physical freak with a ton of finishing and scoring upside, he consistently makes terrible decisions and often gasses out after the first round. However, at times he has shown the cardio to go three full rounds, and he scored a ridiculous 127 DraftKings points in his last decision win. So we can’t completely call him a round one KO or bust option, but 14 of his 17 career wins did occur in the opening five minutes. Ultimately, he has a massively wide range of scoring outcomes and disappoints far more often than not, but if he wins here he most likely ends up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Cutelaba has a 57% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Lins is coming off a decision win in a complete snoozer, where he only scored 69 DraftKings points as he spent most of the fight pushing Maxim Grishin up against the fence. However, he landed a 49 second first round knockout that was good for 132 DraftKings points just before that, after totalling 92 points in a decision win in his Light Heavyweight UFC debut. Prior to that, he lost his first two UFC matches up at Heavyweight. So he’s shown a pretty wide range of scoring outcomes, although he definitely knows how to ruin a fight when he wants to. He’s a patient striker who’s often looking to counter his opponents, and he only averages 3.59 SSL/min. He will look to mix in takedowns, although Cutelaba is a tough guy to take down with a 77% takedown defense. That likely leaves Lins reliant on finishing Cutelaba, which is squarely in play as Cutelaba has been finished in his last six losses and tends to slow down in the second round. And at Lins’ cheap price tag, it’s also possible he could serve as a value play in a decision win if he can be a little more active than he was in his last match. The odds imply Lins has a 43% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Bill Algeo
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Coming off his first UFC submission win, Algeo locked up a rear-naked choke against the highly submittable TJ Brown in the first half of round two after an action-packed start. Prior to that, Algeo lost a split decision to Andre Fili, although even having one judge score the fight for him was generous. Just before that, Algeo notched his only other “finish” in his last nine fights, in a second round TKO against Herbert Burns, who injured his knee in the fight and simply couldn’t continue. Algeo had fought to six straight decisions (3-3) leading up to that fight against Burns. He originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2019, but lost a decision to Brendan Loughnane and was forced to return to the regional scene. After winning a decision with CFFC the UFC then brought him on and he traded decision losses and wins for his first four UFC fights, with both of his wins coming against opponents with suspect cardio and both of his losses resulting from his poor defensive wrestling.
Now 17-7 as a pro, Algeo has four wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and six decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and also has five decision losses. After his first two pro fights ended in first round submissions in 2012 (1-1), 21 of his last 22 matches have seen the second round, including his most recent 17 fights. Eight of his 11 finishes occurred in the second round and his last six fights to end early (5-1) all ended in round two. One of his two submission losses occurred in the first round of his second pro fight, back in 2012, with the other coming in the second round against Shane Burgos in 2014. No one has finished him in his last 16 fights.
Overall, Algeo is a cocky BJJ black belt with terrible defensive wrestling, who relies on outlasting his opponents to win fights. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Algeo has been taken down by his opponents on 25 of 56 attempts (55.4% defense), with all eight of those opponents landing at least one takedown and five of them landing multiple. On the flipside, Algeo landed six of his own takedowns on 14 attempts in those matches (42.9% accuracy). Algeo sets a good pace, averaging 5.93 SSL/min, and we’ve seen him outlast opponents with cardio concerns, which is how he’s secured most of his UFC wins. He likes to showboat on the feet, but isn’t an especially dangerous striker. Algeo has struggled with stringing wins together lately and is just 1-4 when coming off a win in his last 10 fights.
Alexander Hernandez
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Hernandez recently stepped in on just nine days’ notice and won a decision over longtime veteran Jim Miller in a 155 lb match. That came just after Hernandez dropped down to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC and got finished in the second round by Billy Quarantillo. That was the second straight fight where Hernandez got finished in the second round, after he got submitted by Renato Moicano just before that at 155 lb. Hernandez hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2018, when he won his UFC debut in a 42 second knockout against Beneil Dariush and then won a decision over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Since then, Hernandez has gone just 4-5 and he’s just 1-4 in the UFC following a win. Four of his five UFC losses ended in the second round, with the other going the distance. He’s 3-1 in his four UFC decisions, with his other three UFC wins ending in first round knockouts.
Now 14-6 as a pro, Hernandez has six wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has two decision losses. All four of his early losses occurred in the second round, while seven of his eight early wins ended in round one. Hernandez fought some at 145 lb early in his pro career, but moved up to 155 lb 2014, where he stayed until 2022 when he dropped back down to 145 lb and got finished in the second round. He then took a short notice fight back up at 155 lb, but will be returning to 145 lb for this match. The last time he won a fight at 145 lb was in 2013.
Overall, Hernandez was a high school wrestler and is a BJJ brown belt. He only averages 4.57 SSL/min and had never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a fight until his last match, where he landed a career-best 108. In his 11 UFC fights, he landed 9 of his 28 takedown attempts (32.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 19 attempts (63.2% defense). The only fights where didn’t attempt a takedown were a pair of quick first round knockout wins and a decision loss to a dangerous grappler in Thiago Moises. All 11 of Hernandez’s UFC fights fall into one of three categories: first round knockout wins (3-0), second round early losses (0-4), or decisions (3-1).
Fight Prediction:
Algeo will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. Hernandez is three years younger than the 34-year-old Algeo.
Hernandez has been bouncing between 155 lb and 145 lb for his last few fights and it will be interesting to see how his body adjusts as he drops back down to 145 lb here. He looked decent early on in his last fight at 145 lb and won the first round on all three scorecards against Billy Quarantillo, but then faded in round two and ended up getting finished. Hernandez has the striking to hang on the feet and the wrestling ability to capitalize on Algeo’s terrible defensive wrestling, the only question is if Hernandez has the cardio to go 15 hard minutes with a high-paced fighter like Algeo. Hernandez has a history of fading midway through fights and getting finished in the second round, while Algeo’s last six early wins also occurred in round two as his opponents sometimes wilt under his pressure and pace. That’s one of those almost too good to be true stats, but if the fight does end early, an Algeo second round finish would be the most likely outcome if history is any indicator. However, Algeo isn’t as dangerous as any of the last three opponents who finished Hernandez, and there’s a good chance this fight goes the distance and ends in a close decision. We like Hernandez’s chances of finding some wrestling success, especially early on, and the outcome will simply depend on how Hernandez’s cardio holds up. If he doesn’t gas out, we like him to win a decision. If he slightly gasses out, Algeo will likely be able to do enough in the later rounds to steal a decision, and if Hernandez completely gasses Algeo could finish him in round two. The move in weight for Hernandez adds some uncertainty to the mix and we could see this going either way, but we don’t trust Hernandez’s cardio enough to pick him so we’re leaning towards Algeo here, most likely in a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Algeo/Hernandez FGTD” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Algeo has averaged 99 DraftKings in his four UFC wins and is coming off a career performance where he scored 116 points in a high-volume second round submission win. His last two wins both came in second round finishes, but he fought to six straight decisions before that and only scored 88 and 85 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins. Algeo’s defensive wrestling has been a weakness, which creates the potential for him to get controlled for periods of time, hurting his scoring potential. Working in his favor, Hernandez has a history of fading in fights and has been finished in the second round in four of his six career losses. That’s likely what Algeo will need to find a finish and score well. Hernandez is cutting back down to 145 lb for this fight, after taking his last match at 155 lb on short notice, so that also has the potential to hurt his cardio and durability if the weight cut doesn’t go smoothly. The odds imply Algeo has a 57% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Hernandez has largely relied on landing first round knockouts to score well in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 108, 112, and 128 in his three R1 KO wins, but just 79, 41, and 93 points in his three decision victories. He landed a career best 108 significant strikes in his most recent decision win, more than doubling his previous high, but still only scored 79 points. The one time he scored decently without a finish was when he landed a career high four takedowns in a 2018 decision win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier and returned a DraftKings score of 93. This matchup against Algeo is a good spot for Hernandez to rely more on his wrestling, so a similar result is possible. However, we’d be more surprised to see Hernandez find a finish, as Algeo has been very durable and has never been knocked out. That caps Hernandez’s ceiling, and his questionable cardio leaves him with an uncertain floor, but at his cheaper price tag he could definitely serve as a value play in a wrestling-heavy decision victory. The odds imply Hernandez has a 43% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Drew Dober
22nd UFC Fight (12-8, NC)Looking to bounce back from his first knockout loss since 2011, Dober got finished late in the first round by Matt Frevola in what was arguably somewhat of a quick stoppage. Prior to that, Dober knocked out three straight opponents and he’s only required the judges once in his last 10 fights, which was when he lost a 2021 decision to Brad Riddell after getting taken down five times. His other two most recent losses came in a pair of submissions against Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. Dober’s last six wins all ended in knockouts and the last time he won a decision was in 2018.
Now 26-12 as a pro, Dober has 13 wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and seven decision victories. All of his submission wins occurred early in his career, with the last of those coming in 2014. Of his 13 knockout wins, five came in round one, six ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. His last two and three of his last four knockouts were in the later rounds. He’s also been knocked out twice himself (both times in R1), submitted four times, and has six decision losses. Five of his six early losses occurred in the first two rounds, with the one exception being a R3 arm-triangle submission loss to Islam Makhachev.
Overall, Dober is a powerful and durable brawler who generally comes out ahead in firefights, but often struggles against grapplers. However, that wasn’t the case in his recent TKO loss and Dober recently said he was relying too much on his heralded durability and needs to get back to what got him to where he is. While Dober has six submission wins on his record and wrestled some in high school, he’s definitely not a grappler. His background is primarily in Muay Thai and Taekwondo, where he’s a black belt, although he is also a BJJ brown belt for what it’s worth. While we did just see the fire hydrant Dober calls a head spring a leak, the best way to attack him has historically been through wrestling and submissions. In his last seven fights, Dober has been taken down 14 times on 28 opponent attempts and has just a 56% career takedown defense. Frevola is the only fighter since 2016 to defeat Dober without taking him down. While Dober is primarily a striker, he only averages 4.48 SSL/min and he’s only landed more than 73 significant strikes once in 21 Octagon appearances, which was in a 2018 decision win over Frank Camacho, who averages an eye-popping 7.44 SSA/min.
Ricky Glenn
10th UFC Fight (4-4-1)Also looking to bounce back from an early loss, Glenn recently suffered the first knockout defeat of his career this past April. That came just 95 seconds into the first round against Christos Giagos, who previously hadn’t knocked anybody out since 2016. That’s the only time Glenn has fought in the last two years and only the third time in the last five years. Prior to that recent defeat, Glenn fought Grant Dawson to a majority draw in October 2021. Glenn had then been scheduled to face Drew Dober in March 2022 but ended up completely tearing a tendon attached to his groin just before the fight and spent the next year recovering. That wasn’t the first time Glenn had been shelved for a period of time due to injury and following a 2018 decision loss we didn’t see him inside the Octagon for nearly three years after undergoing hip surgery. He finally returned in June 2021 and didn’t waste any time getting back on track as he landed a 37 second R1 knockout against Joaquim Silva that included two knockdowns. That’s Glenn’s only win since 2018 and he’s just 1-2-1 in his last four outings.
Now 22-7-2 as a pro, Glenn has 13 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and six decision victories. All three of his submission wins occurred very early in his career, in 2010 or prior, and he only has one knockout victory since 2016. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. While 19 of his 31 pro fights ended early, seven of his nine UFC fights went the distance, with the two exceptions being a pair of first round knockouts (1-1), which both occurred in his last three fights after he moved up to 155 lb in 2021. Prior to that, he had spent almost his entire career at 145 lb, with the one exception being his 2016 UFC debut at 155 lb, where he lost a decision. Before making the move up to 155 lb, he had seen the second round in 19 straight matches, but since the change, two of his last three ended in 95 seconds or less.
Overall, Glenn is sort of a tough guy to pin down. He’s decently well rounded and is a BJJ brown belt, but he almost never lands any takedowns. In his nine UFC fights, he only landed 4 of his 29 takedown attempts (13.8% accuracy), failing to land a takedown in any of his last six fights and not even attempting any in four of his last five. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 14 of their 44 attempts (68.2% defense). He also only averages 3.99 SSL/min and only once topped 74 significant strikes landed in a fight. We’ve seen him both dominate and get dominated in UFC fights, so he tends to run hot or cold and he’s now 34 years old and has been battling multiple serious injuries over the last five years. Glenn had been training at Team Alpha Male earlier in his UFC career, but following a 2018 loss he switched to Absolute MMA and Fitness and moved from California back to Iowa, where he’s originally from. He said he’ll have Ben Askren in his corner for this fight, so we’ll see if that results in Glenn looking to wrestler more,
Fight Prediction:
Glenn will have a 4” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach.
While both of these guys are 34 years old, Glenn has been battling a lot of injuries in recent years and his body hasn’t been holding up nearly as well. That’s concerning when you’re taking on a powerful puncher like Dober and it’s possible Glenn’s durability is finally beginning to fade as he comes off the first knockout loss of his career. However, we also saw that Dober is human after all in his last fight, as he got knocked out for the first time since 2011. So perhaps we’ll see both guys come in with a more cautious approach that could result in a slower start. It would make sense for Glenn to try and wrestle, as that’s where Dober has struggled the most. However, Glenn failed to land a takedown in eight of his nine UFC fights, so it’s also hard to trust him to complete any. Glenn always seems to do better or worse than expected and has put up some very volatile performances, making him a tough guy to peg down. But he’s never faced a striker like Dober, and we like Dober’s chances of knocking Glenn out, we’ll say in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “Drew Dober R2 or R3 KO” at +290.
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DFS Implications:
Dober has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC victories, with nine of those wins coming early. He showed a decent floor in his three decision wins, averaging 89 DraftKings points in those fights, but has never scored more than 92 points without a finish. While his first five early wins in the UFC all ended in round one, three of his last four finishes came in the later rounds, and he’s never scored more than 96 DraftKings points in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes. Now he checks in as the most expensive fighter on the slate, leaving him reliant on landing a well-timed first round knockout to return value. Glenn said he plans on staying off the cage and out of the “middle range” in this fight, which will make it tougher for Dober to track him down and find the early finish he needs. This fight will take place in the smaller cage at the Apex, which could help Dober, but the most likely outcome is that he knocks Glenn out and still gets priced out of tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Dober has a 79% chance to win, a 58% chance to land a finish, and a 33% chance it comes in round one.
Glenn has been one of the more bipolar producers on the planet, with DraftKings scores of 140, 52, 139, and 61 in his four UFC wins. He also scored just one point in his recent loss, and his scoring range in his three fights since moving up to 155 lb has been 1 to 140. That 140 point total came in Glenn’s only UFC finish and you have to go all the way back to 2016, before he joined the UFC, to find his second most recent early win. Glenn also put up a massive score in a dominant decision win over Gavin Tucker in 2017, but otherwise hasn’t shown much in the way of scoring potential. He’s now 34 years old and has dealt with multiple injuries over the last half a decade that have kept him largely on the shelf. He’s only fought once in the last two years and it’s always hard to know what we can expect from Glenn, as he’s been very inconsistent. While he’s attempted 29 takedowns in the UFC, he only landed four of those, and hasn’t landed any in his last six fights. He also said he doesn’t want to get sucked into a war with Dober and coming off the first knockout loss of his career, we could get a more tentative approach from Glenn, focussed on circling away along the outside of the Octagon to avoid getting pinned up against the cage. Even as the cheapest fighter on the card, that would make it tougher for him to return value. Our one hope for Glenn is that he looks to wrestle more, and he will notably have Ben Askren in his corner. The odds imply Glenn has a 21% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Joaquin Buckley
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Buckley is coming off a low-volume second round knockout win over a broken Andre Fialho, who’s been knocked out in four straight fights. That was Buckley’s first UFC fight down at 170 lb, after he went 5-4 with the organization at 185 lb. The move down in weight was prompted by a pair of losses in 2022, with a decision defeat to Nassourdine Imavov and a second round knockout loss to Chris Curtis. However, leading up to those losses Buckley had won five of his previous six after getting knocked out in his short notice 2020 UFC debut against Kevin Holland. Five of Buckley’s six UFC wins ended in knockouts, with four of those ending in round two and one in round three. He was also knocked out in three of his four UFC losses. At just 5’10”, Buckley was always undersized at 185 lb and often came in under the 186 lb limit by multiple pounds. After he moved down to 170 lb, he said he had previously been fighting at his natural weight and didn’t even have to cut down, which adds up when you see where he had been weighing in. He did start his career at 170 lb, going 8-2 at the weight class in his first 10 fights, before he moved up to 185 lb in 2019 when he joined the LFA. He then stayed at 185 lb when he came into the UFC and after starting out 5-2 with the organization he never had a real reason to drop back down to 170 lb until his recent two fight skid.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Buckley has 12 wins by KO/TKO and four decision victories. Four of his knockout wins occurred in round one, six ended in round two, and two came in round three. He’s also been knocked out four times himself and has two decision losses. Two of his knockout losses occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and the other occurred in round three. When Buckley was previously competing at 170 lb from 2014 to 2018 three of his eight wins went the distance, with his other five ending in knockouts. He has only been knocked out once at 170 lb (R1 2016), with his other loss going the distance. Three of his last four 170 lb fights ended with the judges (2-1).
Overall, Buckley is a power puncher who relies mostly on his striking, but will mix in occasional takedown attempts. In his 10 UFC fights, he’s landed 9 of his 26 takedown attempts (34.6% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 7 of their 21 attempts (66.7% defense). He’s never sniffed a submission and doesn’t look very dangerous on the ground. He’s also never landed more than 51 significant strikes in a UFC fight and only averages 3.76 SSL/min and 3.42 SSA/min. That helps to explain why he’s lost two of the last three decisions he’s been to, with the one win coming in a split decision over Abdul Razak Alhassan, who’s 0-4 in his career with the judges.
Alex Morono
19th UFC Fight (12-5, NC)Morono has quietly gone 5-1 in his last six fights, with the one loss coming in a 180 lb Catchweight fight he stepped into on short notice against Santiago Ponzinibbio and was winning until he got knocked out in the third round. He bounced back from that loss with a second round submission win over Tim Means most recently, although Morono did lose the first round on all three scorecards in that one. While Morono’s last two fights both ended early, five of his previous six went the distance (4-1). Morono only has two finishes in his last 10 fights, the submission over the highly submittable Tim Means and a knockout over a washed up Donald Cerrone, who was in the midst of a six fight skid and one fight removed from retiring.
Now 23-8 as a pro, Morono has six wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, nine decision wins, and one DQ victory (when his opponent bit him). Three of Morono’s six submission wins were R1 armbars very early in his career, while his last three all came via guillotine. Morono has never been submitted, but he’s officially been knocked out three times. In reality, he’s been knocked out four times, but one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Niko Price later tested positive for THC. Morono also has five decision losses. Morono is definitely more focused on looking for knockouts at this stage in his career and he’s confirmed that himself saying, “Knockouts are gold, submissions are silver and decisions are bronze.” So while he’s a 2nd degree BJJ black belt, he’s also a black belt in Taekwondo and clearly prioritizes finishing fights on the feet. Morono has returned very polarized results throughout his career as 11 of his 13 career finishes have come in the first round as have two of his three official KO losses.
Overall, Morono is a well rounded fighter but chooses to rely mostly on his striking to win fights. He’s only landed four takedowns on 20 attempts (20%) in his 18 UFC fights, with three of those takedowns coming against Rhys McKee. He’s put up decent striking totals at times, averaging 5.20 SSL/min and 4.14 SSA/min, but we’ve also seen him involved in much lower volume affairs. Morono has talked about how he’s looking for finishes when they present themselves, but won’t go crazy trying to get opponents out of there. That lines up with the tape, and we’ve seen him hurt opponents at multiple points and not pounce on the opportunity to finish those fights. That has resulted in him only finding two finishes in the last four and a half years, however, to Morono’s credit he’s won six of the last seven decisions he’s been to.
Fight Prediction:
Morono will have a 1” height advantage, but Buckley will have a 4” reach advantage and is four years younger than the 33-year-old Morono.
Both fighters in this matchup have been a bit chinny at times, as they’ve each been knocked out four times in the past (if you include Morono’s NC against Price). Buckley is the more powerful striker, while Morono is the busier of the two. That leaves Buckley more likely to land a knockout, but Morono more likely to win a decision. We expect it to play out as a striking battle, so Buckley should have plenty of opportunities to find a kill shot, but if he doesn’t, Morono should be able to outland his way to a decision win. Both outcomes are squarely in play, but we slightly lean towards Buckley knocking Morono out in the later rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Joaquin Buckley R2 or R3 KO” at +340.
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DFS Implications:
Buckley has averaged 96 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with five of those ending in late round knockouts. Four of those finishes came in round two, with him scoring between 98 and 102 points in three of those, while he scored exactly 80 DraftKings points in both his third round knockout win and his lone decision victory. The only time he topped 102 points was in a multi-knockdown performance against a fragile Jordan Wright, where Buckley put up 114 points in a second round finish. Buckley will sporadically look for takedowns, but failed to land any in three of his last four matches and also only averages 3.76 SSL/min. That leaves him reliant on landing well timed knockouts to score well and he’s yet to show the ability to score well in fights that last longer than 10 minutes. At his relatively expensive price tag, he could easily land a finish and still get priced out of winning lineups, but that will entirely depend on what the fighters priced around him do. Morono has been knocked out four times in the past (including one that was overturned to a NC for pot), so this isn’t a terrible spot for Buckley to find a finish. The odds imply Buckley has a 61% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Morono has averaged 86 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins, only hitting the century mark in four of those. Eight of his 12 UFC wins went the distance and he only averaged 79 points in those decisions, with just one score above 79, which was an outlier performance where he scored 126 points in a career performance against Rhys McKee. Morono consistently scored between 69 and 79 DraftKings points in his other six most recent decision wins. Three of his four early wins in the UFC ended in the first round, but he only has two finishes in his last 10 fights and scored just 85 points in his recent second round submission win. While Buckley has been prone to getting knocked out, Morono isn’t the most likely candidate to capitalize on that and you’ll more likely be hoping he can serve as a value play in a decision win at this cheap price tag if you play him. That will likely require most of the other dogs on the slate to fail, which is always possible, but requires a lot of things to go right. The odds imply Morono has a 39% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Joe Pyfer
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Pyfer has knocked out both of his UFC opponents in the first round, after landing a pair of second round knockouts just before making his UFC debut. His last 11 fights all ended in under eight minutes, with him winning nine of those. His most recent win came against a glass-jawed grappler in Gerald Meerschaert, who foolishly never looked to take the fight to the ground. Prior to that, Pyfer knocked out one of the worst UFC fighters in recent memory in Alen Amedovski in Pyfer’s UFC debut. That came just after he landed a second round TKO win in his second appearance on DWCS. Pyfer originally went on the show in August 2020 but suffered a dislocated elbow as he got slammed by Dustin Stoltzfus late in the first round. Following the injury, he had a lengthy 14 month recovery process before landing a second round knockout in the CFFC. That was enough to get him a second shot on DWCS and he capitalized on it with a finish to punch his ticket to the big show.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Pyfer has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. He has one TKO loss and one by submission (2019 R2 guillotine). All 10 of his early wins and both of his losses ended in under eight minutes and the only time he’s seen the third round was in his lone decision win in his second pro fight. He fought a lot of suspect competition early in his career and only 6 of his 11 wins were against opponents with winning records, and even most of the opponents with winning records have been very low-level. The best example of that is Austin Trotman, who came into his 2021 fight against Pyfer with an undefeated 3-0 record, but two of those wins came against the infamous record padder Jay Ellis (16-108 as a pro). Pyfer’s submission loss came against a terrible Jhonoven Pati, who has never landed any other submissions in his career and has lost three of his last four fights since.
Overall, Pyfer is a pretty raw athletic specimen who’s still just 27 years old and only turned pro in 2018. He has good power and some ability to wrestle, but has yet to be really tested. All we can take away from his first two UFC fights is that he did what he was supposed to do. He never faced one second of adversity in those fights and both opponents seemingly just showed up to get knocked out. While Pyfer can land takedowns, he hasn’t looked especially dangerous on the mat. He will look for submissions, but hasn’t completed one since 2019 in his fourth pro fight. We’ve yet to see anyone attempt a takedown in either of his two UFC fights, although he did land both of his attempts in his two DWCS fights, while getting taken down once on two attempts by his opponents. Pyfer trains with Sean Brady in Philly, so he has good training partners around him and should be making improvements between every fight, and he’s also been taking part in grappling matches recently. However, he also had another elbow surgery after his last fight, so he continues to deal with injuries. Pyfer has been able to rely on his physicality to win fights against lower level opponents to this stage in his career, but it will be interesting to see how he fares against more legitimate competition.
Abdul Razak Alhassan
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Coming off the first win of his career to make it out of the first round (barely), Alhassan knocked out a debuting Claudio Ribeiro 28 seconds into round two. Alhassan showed more patience in that fight and afterwards said his coaches had pleaded with him to take that approach. However, once he had Ribeiro hurt he didn’t waste any time going in for the kill. That was only Alhassan’s second win in his last six outings, although he has won two of his last three fights, with the one loss coming in a split decision against Joaquin Buckley in Alhassan’s second most recent fight. Prior to that, Alhassan landed a 17 second first round knockout against a struggling Alessio Di Chirico, after losing a wrestling-heavy decision to Jacob Malkoun in Alhassan’s first UFC fight up at 185 lb. he had previously been fighting at 170 lb, but missed weight in back-to-back losses in 2020, following 22 months away from competition. Alhassan got violently knocked out in his final 170 lb fight by Khaos Williams in just 30 seconds.
Now 12-5 as a pro, all 12 of Alhassan career wins ended in knockouts, with 11 of those ending in round one and the other in the opening 30 seconds of round two. He’s also been knocked out in the first round once himself and has dropped all four of the decisions he’s been to. Alhassan fought anywhere from 170 lb to 190 lb early in his pro career, before settling in at 170 lb when he made his 2016 UFC debut. He went 4-3 in his seven UFC fights at 170 lb, before moving up to 185 lb in 2021, where he’s since gone 2-2.
Overall, Alhassan is a 38-year-old Ghanaian power puncher who relies on knocking opponents out to win fights and showed cardio concerns earlier in his career. However, he is also a Judo black belt and will occasionally mix in takedown attempts. He’s been training in Colorado at Team Elevation since 2021, which may be benefiting his cardio some. In his 11 UFC fights, he landed 5 of his 13 takedown attempts (38.5% accuracy). After landing just two takedowns on seven attempts in his first nine UFC appearances, he’s landed three of his six attempts in his last two matches. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 24 of their 50 attempts (52% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Pyfer will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, in addition to being 11 years younger than the 38-year-old Alhassan.
This sets up as a low-volume, high-stakes matchup between two powerful finishers, who will also each look for occasional takedowns. All 12 of Alhassan’s career wins have come by knockout in under five and a half minutes, while 10 of Pyfer’s 11 wins also came early, all in under eight minutes. Pyfer has been competing in a bunch of grappling competitions recently, so it seems like he’s been focussed on improving that aspect of his game. While Pyfer hasn’t attempted a takedown in either of his UFC fights, he had no reason to in either of those matches, but it would make some sense for him to look to wrestle here against a dangerous striker like Alhassan. And while Pyfer hasn’t attempted a takedown in the UFC yet, he did land one in the opening minute of his second DWCS match and also wrestled in high school. Alhassan has also been looking to wrestle more lately, with six takedown attempts in his last two fights. So the potential is there for either one of them to mix things up with some grappling, which could drag out the fight longer than expected if we don’t see a quick knockout. Both guys have a ton of finishing power and we’ve yet to see Pyfer’s chin really tested at the UFC level, which adds some uncertainty with his durability. Ultimately, Pyfer is the bigger, younger, and probably faster fighter, who the UFC is trying to build up, while Alhassan is at the tailend of his career. Alhassan always has a puncher’s chance, and there are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding Pyfer, but we’re still taking Pyfer here and the most likely outcome is another early knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Pyfer is coming off a pair of first round knockout wins in his first two UFC fights that were good for 96 and 106 DraftKings points, with the only real difference between the two being that he wasn’t credited with a knockdown in his last win. He landed exactly 14 strikes in both matches and didn’t attempt a takedown in either fight. Both of those finishes were against fragile opponents, who didn’t pose much risk to Pyfer on the feet, but now he’ll face a more dangerous test in Alhassan. Pyfer is a powerful but patient striker, and if he doesn’t start mixing in some wrestling he’ll remain entirely reliant on landing well-timed finishes to score well. He has been competing in some grappling competitions recently and also wrestled when he was younger, so there’s a chance he could look to mix things up here. However, if he doesn’t, we could easily see him land another early knockout and still get priced out of winning tournament lineups. There’s also the potential for him to get knocked out, so there are multiple ways for him to fail and he projects to be highly owned in all contest types. The odds imply Pyfer has a 79% chance to win, a 63% chance to land a finish, and a 45% chance it comes in round one.
Alhassan has historically been a KO or bust fighter, with all 12 of his career wins coming by knockout in under five and half minutes. The first 11 of those ended in round one, while the most recent came 28 seconds into round two. He’s getting up there in age at 38-years-old and spent most of his UFC career at 170 lb, before moving up to 185 lb in 2021. While he’s only landed five takedowns in 11 UFC appearances, he is a Judo black belt and three of those takedowns occurred in his second most recent fight. So there’s always a chance he could look to grapple some here and he said after his last match that his coaches are telling him to fight smarter and more patiently. However, he’s still never won a fight that made it to the six minute mark and only scored 42 DraftKings points in his last decision loss. So even at his cheap price tag, we’re still more or less relying on him landing a knockout to be useful. He’s historically been very popular, and we expect the field to be heavy on this fight as a whole. The odds imply Alhassan has a 21% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Grant Dawson
10th UFC Fight (8-0-1)Dawson is coming off a dominant decision win over a really tough Damir Ismagulov, who entered the matchup with a solid 75% takedown defense. Dawson was able to take Ismagulov down early in each round and controlled him on the mat for essentially the entire fight as he finished with 12 and a half minutes of control time. Prior to that, Dawson secured a pair of third round submission wins, as he outgrappled a couple of guys known for their grappling in Jared Gordon and former Greco-Roman Olympic Wrestling silver medalist, Mark O. Madsen. Dawson landed two of his six takedown attempts against Madsen and finished with nine and a half minutes of control time before locking up a submission midway through round three. Just prior to that, Dawson landed a career best seven takedowns on 17 attempts against Gordon, before landing a submission in the final minute of the fight. Dawson is undefeated in his last 12 fights, and the only time he didn’t come out victorious over that stretch was in a 2021 draw against Ricky Glenn. Following the disappointing result, Dawson made the switch to American Top Team after spending eight years at Glory MMA & Fitness. The move appeared successful, as Dawson became the first fighter to ever submit Jared Gordon in his next match and then handed Mark O. Madsen the first loss of his career. Five of Dawson’s eight UFC wins ended early, but all nine of his UFC fights made it out of the first round. His first two finishes with the organization came in round two, while his last three all ended in round three.
Now 20-1-1 as a pro, Dawson has four wins by KO/TKO, 13 submissions, and three decision victories. His only career loss was a 35 second R1 KO in 2016. Three of his four career knockout wins occurred in round two with the other ending in round three. Six of his last seven finishes were submissions and his only knockout win since 2016 was in the final second of a 2021 match against an aging Leonardo Santos. Of Dawson’s 13 submission wins, seven ended in round one, four came in round two, and his most recent two occurred in round three. Dawson started his career fighting at 155 lb, but dropped down to 145 lb in 2016, where he stayed until 2021 until he moved back up to 155 lb following a couple of tough weight misses.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Dawson’s career, so we’ve yet to see how his cardio looks in the championship rounds and only 4 of his 22 pro fights even made it the full 15 minutes.
Overall, Dawson relies heavily on his wrestling and tends to wear on his opponents opposed to finishing fights quickly. He’s a BJJ black belt and is typically looking to lock up rear-naked chokes on the mat, which is how he finished 11 of his 13 career submissions. Between his nine UFC fights and his DWCS match, Dawson landed 30 takedowns on 83 attempts (36.1% accuracy), while there have only been five takedowns attempted against him, with three of those being successful (40% defense). However, no one has ever gotten him down more than once, and Dawson finished all three of the opponents to land a takedown against him. One of Dawson’s primary training partners at American Top Team is Thiago Moises, who fought Bobby Green in the past. Dawson has struggled to make weight at various points in his career and this matchup was put together about a month out, so he’ll be a guy to monitor on the scale.
Bobby Green
23rd UFC Fight (11-9-1, NC)Green is fresh off a late third round submission win over Tony Ferguson, but that’s his only victory in his last four outings. Green’s previous fight ended in an unfortunate No Contest after he torpedo head butted Jared Gordon to begin the finishing sequence of a late R1 knockout. Leading up to that, Green suffered back-to-back KO/TKO losses to Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev. Green was setting a crazy pace against Dober before he got caught, as he outlanded Dober 73-34 in significant strikes in just a round and a half. Prior to the pair of early losses, Green had been extremely durable and hadn’t been finished since 2016 when Dustin Poirier knocked him out in the first round. Green’s second most recent win was a February 2022 decision over Nasrat Haqparast, where Green landed a career best 188 significant strikes. That came just after Green knocked out a washed up Al Iaquinta in the first round, which is only Green’s second finish in his last 20 fights dating back to a 2013 R1 TKO over James Krause. Leading up to the KO over Iaquinta, Green had fought to 10 straight decisions (4-5-1).
Now 30-14-1 as a pro, Green has 10 wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and 11 decision victories. He has four KO/TKO losses, two submission defeats, and eight decision losses. While only one of his last six fights made it to the judges, his previous 10 fights all went the distance. Both of Green’s submission losses occurred all the way back in 2009.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Green’s career, but only his second in the UFC. He had four straight fights scheduled to go five rounds back in 2010 and 2011, before he joined the UFC, with the first three of those ending in 10 minutes or less (2-1). He then won a five-round decision in 2011, which is the only time he’s ever seen the championship rounds. His lone UFC five-round fight was on short notice in 2022 against Islam Makhachev, who finished Green with ground and pound in the first round.
Overall, Green is a high-volume striker (6.14 SSL/min) who likes to put on a show, but doesn’t land many finishes. His hands-by-his-side fighting style provides a unique look for opponents to deal with and makes it tough to see Green’s punches coming and also easier for him to defend takedowns. Green has always been one to feed off the crowd and tends to shine in the spotlight, and his last three wins were all on PPV cards, while he’s gone just 0-3 plus a No Contest in his last four fights at the Apex without a real crowd, where this next fight will also be. With a high school wrestling background, Green is a capable grappler with a solid 74% takedown defense, but hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last seven fights. Over that same stretch the only opponent to get him down was Islam Makhachev, who landed one of his two attempts. However, Green hasn’t faced my wrestlers like Grant Dawson, so it will be interesting to see how long he can remain upright in this next fight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10”, but Dawson has a 1” reach advantage and is eight years younger than the 37-year-old Green.
This fight all boils down to how Dawson’s cardio and Green’s takedown defense hold up. Dawson has a major advantage on the mat, but Green is the far superior striker. So if Green’s 74% takedown defense can keep this fight standing, at least for periods of time, he should have no problem outclassing Dawson on the feet. However, Dawson rarely spends much time striking and showed in his last fight that he can find grappling success, even against crafty veterans with solid takedown defenses. However, even if Dawson can find early wrestling success, he’ll still have one more hurdle to overcome—his cardio. We’ve seen him slow down late in fights at times in the most, most notably in his 2021 draw against Ricky Glenn. This is the first five-round fight of his career, so not only has Dawson never seen the championship rounds, he’s never even prepared for a five-round fight until now, and this matchup was put together on just a month’s notice. So between Green’s striking advantage, solid takedown defense, and potential to outlast Dawson if this makes it to the championship rounds, there are reasons to think he can make this fight more competitive than the odds suggest. However, after seeing Dawson dominate Jared Gordon, Mark O. Madsen, and Damir Ismagulov in his last three fights, it’s understandable why he’s a big favorite over Green. The most likely outcome is that Dawson again finds wrestling success and either locks in a rear-naked choke in the middle-to-later rounds or grinds out a decision victory. Green’s best hope will be that Dawson gasses out late in the fight, which could happen, although it’s hard to quantify the likelihood of that actually occurring. And even if it does, there would still be the potential for Dawson to limp to a decision victory if he banks the first three rounds. Dawson said in multiple interviews that this will be his chance for him to prove to himself that he can go five rounds, suggesting that he may come in more focussed on preserving his cardio than looking for an early finish. If Green makes a mistake on the mat then there’s still a good chance Dawson will lock in a rear-naked choke, but we won’t be surprised if this runs long. Either way, Dawson will be the pick, although we have no interest in his moneyline.
Our favorite bet here is “Over 2.5 Rounds” at -125.
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DFS Implications:
Dawson has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins and has shown the ability to score well on DraftKings even without a finish, but has been far more reliant on getting opponents out of there early on FanDuel. He scored 90 DraftKings in his last decision win, but that was only good for 61 points on FanDuel. If we extend his numbers in that three-round victory over the course of five rounds, he’d be looking at 130 DraftKings points, but just 88 points on FanDuel, showing that even with five rounds to work with he may still need a finish to be useful over there. Another factor to consider is that he’s never been in a five-round fight and has yet to show he has the cardio to maintain his wrestling-heavy attack for 25 straight minutes. And while he scored 89 or more DraftKings points in all eight of his UFC wins and 101 or more in five of those, only once has he topped 107 points. So while he’s consistently demonstrated a really solid floor, as the second most expensive fighter on this card, there are certainly ways he finds a mid round finish, but still gets priced out of winning tournament lineups. However, if his cardio holds up and he can dominate this fight on the mat for 25 minutes in a decision win, he’ll have the very real potential to lead the DraftKings slate in scoring. Green has a pretty solid 74% takedown defense and hasn’t been submitted since 2009, so it’s definitely not an easy matchup for Dawson, but neither was his last one and he still dominated in that fight. The odds imply Dawson has a 78% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Green has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins, despite seven of those going the distance. While seven of his last nine wins ended in decisions, he still managed to score 98 or more DraftKings points in his last five victories. His most inspired performances have come in front of live crowds. However, he’ll be back at the Apex with no real crowd for this fight, where he’s gone 0-3 plus a No Contest the last four times he’s fought. Now Green will be facing a smothering wrestler who will be looking to take him down and control him as much as possible, which really lowers the scoring potential for Green. However, as the second cheapest fighter on the card, he could potentially serve as a value play even if he doesn’t put up a huge score. Working in Green’s favor, Dawson has never been in a five-round fight and could potentially gas out if this makes it to the championship rounds. Green’s solid 74% takedown defense could help with that if he can really make Dawson work to get him down. That leaves us with some hope in Green pulling off the upset, but it’s hard to have too much confidence in him in this tough stylistic matchup. The odds imply Green has a 22% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
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