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Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Jamey-Lyn Horth
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Horth is coming off a close decision win in her recent UFC debut against a terrible Hailey Cowan, who missed weight and was also making her debut. That fight took place at 135 lb, but Horth will now be returning to her normal weight class of 125 lb. Horth finished ahead 76-63 in significant strikes, but Cowan was able to take her down twice and control her for almost five minutes. That’s Horth’s only fight in the last two years, with her second most recent fight ending in a December 2021 third round submission for the vacant LFA Flyweight belt.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Horth has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. All five of those finishes occurred in the second and third round of fights, with her last three finishes all coming in round three. Two of her last three finishes ended in rear-naked chokes. Her first five pro fights were at 125 lb, but she took her UFC debut up a weight class at 135 lb. She’ll now be returning to 125 lb.
Overall, Horth is a Canadian fighter who struggled to find opponents to fight outside of the UFC. She also said she doesn’t have many female training partners at home, so has to travel when she wants to train with other women. While Horth hasn’t fought much in the way of competition as a pro, she does have two amateur decision wins over Lupita Godinez back in 2016 and 2017, although Godinez was only 23 years old at the time. At 5’7”, Horth has good size at 125 lb and likes to maximize that with a lot of kicks. However, she’s also looked pretty hittable and once she faces a legitimate striker she’ll be in a lot of trouble. She doesn’t really stand out anywhere and we’ve seen her get dropped on the feet and nearly submitted on the mat. She has shown the ability to outlast lower level opponents and put them away later in fights, but that may not translate to the UFC as she begins facing tougher competition. We’ve also seen her struggle with being controlled for periods of time, which will be a concern moving forward.
Veronica Hardy
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Hardy recently made her return to the UFC following a three year hiatus/retirement and cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win over Juliana Miller, despite entering the fight as a massive +310 underdog. Hardy outlanded Miller 62-30 in significant strikes and also landed all four of her takedown attempts with seven and a half minutes of control time. During her time off, Veronica Hardy married Dan Hardy, who Veronica credited with helping her improve as a fighter. The reason for her time off was that she was dealing with a series of concussions earlier in her career that forced her to step away from the sport after starting out 1-4 in the UFC. Prior to her recent win, she hadn’t competed since she lost a high-volume March 2020 decision against Bea Malecki. Leading up to that loss, Hardy locked up a first round submission against Polyana Viana in August 2019, which is Hardy’s only other victory since 2016, the year she turned pro. Leading up to that win, she lost her first three UFC fights, with a 2016 R3 TKO against Ashlee Evans-Smith, a 2018 decision against Andrea Lee, and a 2019 second round submission against Gillian Robertson. Just before making her 2016 UFC debut, Hardy fought to a draw and her third most recent win was a 2016 third round submission.
Now 7-4-1 as a pro, Hardy has one TKO win (R1 2016), two submissions, and four decision victories. She’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision defeats. She started her career at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb in her second UFC fight. She then moved back up to 135 lb for her second most recent match, before returning to 125 lb for her last fight.
Overall, Hardy is a high-paced striker with a Taekwondo background and she has also shown the ability to lock up submissions. In her six UFC fights, Hardy landed 6 of her 15 takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while she’s been taken down by her opponents 8 times on 18 attempts (55.6% defense). After setting an insane pace early on in her second most recent fight, Hardy faded down the stretch, but she looked fine late in the third round of her last fight and appears to be in better shape now than earlier in her career. Considering her last fight was against a low-level one-dimensional grappler, we still need to see how this new version of Hardy can fare against legitimate strikers, so there are still a lot of questions surrounding her.
Fight Prediction:
Horth will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being five years older than the 28-year-old Hardy.
This fight was a straight pick‘em on Monday, but since then Horth has shot up to a -200 favorite, which always makes you wonder if there’s something nefarious going on. Skill for skill, we just don’t see that big of a gap between these two. We haven’t been impressed by Horth, but she is coming into her second UFC fight and returning to her normal weight class, which is an advantageous spot to be in. However, she’s pretty hittable and gets controlled too easily, and has only fought once in the last two years. So there are several red flags with her that the public appears to be ignoring. We’re not saying that Hardy is some world beater, but she’s well rounded and pretty decent everywhere. Horth will have a noticeable size advantage, so maybe she can just bully her way to a win, but we like Hardy’s chances of making this a competitive fight and she has the experience advantage and can now be had at a good plus money price. Maybe Horth will look improved after getting a UFC fight under her belt, but she needs to prove it before we can get on board and we still lean towards Hardy winning a close decision despite the massive line move against her.
Our favorite bet here is “Veronica Hardy ML” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Horth only scored 67 DraftKings points in her recent UFC debut decision win against a terrible Hailey Cowan, who missed weight and was also making her debut. While that gives us no indication that she can score well with the judges, she did finish all five of her pre-UFC opponents, albeit against a low level of competition. That at least shows some theoretical upside, but she still needs to prove that she can put opponents away at the UFC level. The line has moved massively in Horth’s favor as the week has gone on and after being -110 on Monday, Horth has now been bet all the way up to -200, leaving her underpriced on DraftKings. That arguably makes her a decent value play in low-risk contests, although we don’t think you even have to play her there. She’ll still need a finish to be useful in tournaments. The odds imply Horth has a 64% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Hardy scored 92 DraftKings points in her recent decision win where she pulled off the upset as a massive +310 underdog and wiggled her way into the winning DraftKings lineup while being just 6% owned. We picked her to win in that spot and said the line made no sense at the time. Once again, we think Hardy is being undervalued, although this may be a tougher spot for her to score well and she’s not nearly as cheap as the last time. So we’re not as excited about playing her in DFS this time around, but she’s still a decent play in tournaments where the massive line move against her will keep her ownership lower as everyone will be looking to play the value in Horth instead. Horth has looked really hittable and also gets controlled along the cage pretty easily, so it’s not a terrible matchup for Hardy. However, she’ll still probably need a finish to really score well and it’s entirely possible she wins a decision and still gets left out of the optimal lineup. The odds imply Hardy has a 36% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Wellington Turman
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Turman dropped down from 185 lb to 170 lb for his last fight and despite losing a decision to Randy Brown, Turman’s durability held up better than expected. He had always been kind of chinny at 185 lb, as he was knocked out in the first round in two of his first three UFC losses. However he’s not gone four fights without being finished. Maybe you can attribute that to who he’s been fighting or maybe his durability has actually improved, only time will tell. He lost a decision to a wrestler in Andre Petroski in his last fight at 185 lb, after submitting a washed up grappler in Misha Cirkunov and winning a decision over a terrible Sam Alvey, despite having two points deducted in the third round for eye pokes. Leading up to those two wins, Turman got knocked out in the first round in back-to-back fights against Bruno Silva and Andrew Sanchez, after splitting a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights. So five of his eight UFC fights went the distance (2-3), with the other three ending in under seven minutes (1-2).
Now 18-7 as a pro, Turman has four wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and six decisions. However, he only has one submission victory since 2019 and his last knockout win was all the way back in 2016 against a stat-padding opponent who came in 0-11 and is now 0-17 with all 17 losses ending early. Turman has never knocked out a legitimate opponent and his can-crushing record should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Six of his eight submission wins occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. He’s been knocked out twice and has five decision losses, but has never been submitted himself.
Overall, Turman is a BJJ black belt but has gone just 9 for 47 (19.1% accuracy) on his takedown attempts in his eight UFC fights, so he has a tough time getting fights to the mat where he wants them. His opponents have taken him down on 11 of their 20 attempts (45% defense). Turman only averages 3.04 SSL/min and 3.87 SSA/min and has never landed more than 69 significant strikes in a fight. However, he’s been training at Teixeira MMA & Fitness with Glover Teixeira and Alex Pereira, so maybe he can show some improvements here in this favorable matchup and he’s still only 27 years old.
Jared Gooden
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Gooden recently made his return to the UFC on short notice after being cut from the organization in 2021. He missed weight by a ridiculous six pounds after stepping in on just a few days’ notice, but he’s so bad that his opponent still accepted the fight and the UFC said whatever, let ‘em fight. Gooden went on to get dominated in the fight as he lost a unanimous 30-27 decision to Carlston Harris, getting taken down five times in the match and controlled for nearly 10 minutes. Gooden originally joined the UFC in 2020 and lost decisions to a half retired Alan Jouban and an unimpressive Abubakar Nurmagomedov in his first two fights. He then stepped in on short notice and landed a first round knockout against Niklas Stolze, who went 0-3 with the organization before being cut. However, Gooden then lost a decision to Randy Brown and was cut in 2021. So Gooden is 0-4 in the four UFC decisions he’s been to and lost every single round on every single scorecard in those four fights. In between his two UFC stints he went 4-1 on the regional scene with three knockout wins, a decision victory, and a knockout loss to former UFC fighter Impa Kasanganay. That loss notably occurred up at 185 lb and Gooden and bounced between 170 lb and 185 lb throughout his career.
Now 22-9 as a pro, Gooden has 11 wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice and has seven decision losses. Both of his early losses were at 185 lb, and no one has ever finished him at 170 lb. His last five early wins all came by knockout, with four of those ending in the second round.
Overall, Gooden is a low-level punching bag and averages 6.76 SSA/min (most on the slate). In his five UFC fights, he’s been outlanded 413-289 in significant strikes. He’s also been taken down by his opponents on 6 of their 19 attempts (68.4% defense), while he landed both of his own two takedown attempts. He keeps his hands incredibly low, leaving himself open to be hit. To his credit, he is a BJJ brown belt and has never been submitted, but we have seen him easily controlled on the mat. It won’t be long before the UFC cuts him again and he’s simply a slot filler they bring in when they need someone on short notice. He missed weight for each of his last two fights, so it will be important to monitor him closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0”, but Gooden will have a 5” reach advantage.
Gooden is bad. Like really bad. But he does have decent power if he can land flush and Turman has been prone to getting knocked out in the past. So we can’t eliminate the possibility that Gooden lands something clean and knocks Turman out, but that appears to be his lone path to victory. All four of his UFC losses went the distance and he lost every round on every scorecard in those four fights. So betting on him to lose decisions has been an open ATM and that will likely continue here, even though Turman hasn’t excelled at winning decisions himself. Turman by decision will be the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Wellington Turman DEC” at +155.
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DFS Implications:
Turman has never scored well in DFS, averaging just 76 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins. Even in his second round submission win, he still only scored 82 points. Prior to that, he had only scored 74 and 73 points in his two decision wins and has yet to demonstrate any sort of actual ceiling. His striking has been unimpressive, as has his takedown accuracy and his suspect durability. He’s also pretty expensive on this slate, making it even tougher for him to crack the optimal lineup. The one thing he has going for him is a very favorable matchup and Gooden leads the slate with 6.76 SSA/min. We also just saw Gooden get dominated on the mat in his last fight, so if Turman was ever going to fill up the stat sheet, this would be the time. The odds imply Turman has a 64% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Gooden is just 1-4 in the UFC and has lost all 12 of the complete rounds he’s been part of, with all four of his UFC losses going the distance. His lone win ended in a first round knockout where he scored 111 DraftKings points, showing at least some upside in his otherwise terrible UFC run. He’s never going to be a guy you’re excited about playing, but he does have a puncher’s chance and Turman has been knocked out in two of his five UFC losses. However, if Gooden is unable to knock Turman out, he’s given us zero indication that he can win a decision at this level or that he could score well even if he did. That leaves him as a pretty straightforward KO or bust play in not the worst matchup to achieve that. The odds imply Gooden has a 36% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Rodolfo Bellato
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a second round TKO win on DWCS, which was his second time on the show after he got knocked out by Vitor Petrino in the second round a year earlier in his first appearance. After getting knocked out by Petrino, Bellato returned to the LFA and knocked out an undersized, overweight, aging journeyman in just 97 seconds. That propelled Bellato into an LFA title fight for the vacant Light Heavyweight belt against Acacio dos Santos, who was a year removed from losing a decision on DWCS to Anton Turkalj, who took him down 11 times in that three round fight and controlled him for nearly 12 minutes. Bellato came in with a similar game plan, as he controlled Dos Santos for almost the entire fight, but only landed four takedowns on a dozen attempts. He was content with pushing Dos Santos up against the cage and laying on him when he did get him down, and never threatened a finish, as he looked exhausted for the second half of the uneventful match. Despite the lackluster results, he got another shot on DWCS after that win and this time made the most of his opportunity with a second round knockout win over an inexperienced opponent with just six pro fights to his name who was only seven months removed from ACL surgery.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Bellato has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and one decision victory. All six of his knockout wins ended in the first two rounds, with four ending in round one. All four of his submission wins also came in round one. Both of his losses ended in knockouts against Vitor Petrino, with one of those ending in round one and the other in round two.
Overall, Bellato comes from a jiu-jitsu background and is a BJJ brown belt who’s dangerous on the mat. While he has decent power, his striking defense is poor and he tends to leave his chin up and his hands low. He also has pretty suspect cardio and begins to slow down after a round and a half or two. And while his grappling is decent, his wrestling leaves something to be desired, as he often struggles to complete takedowns along the fence. He’s still just 27 years old, so he has plenty of time to improve, and it looks like he recently spent some time training at Teixeira MMA & Fitness with Glover Teixeira and Alex Pereira. He’s been kind of inconsistent with his approach and in his last fight he never looked to grapple, after refusing to strike in his match before that. He looked more impressive earlier in his career and actually seems to be getting worse in each of his last five fights as the stakes have become higher. We expect him to struggle against legitimate competition in the UFC, but he’s dangerous enough to finish low-level opponents like the one he’ll get here.
Ihor Potieria
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Likely fighting for his job, Potieria is sitting on a 1-2 UFC record with two knockout losses and one teed up knockout win against a retiring Shogun Rua. Potieria got knocked out in just 129 seconds by Carlos Ulberg in his last fight, and did nothing in the match to look competitive. While he did land a finish of his own just before that, it’s hard to give him too much credit for finishing a washed up 41-year-old opponent who had already announced his retirement. Prior to that, Potieria got knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut against Nicolae Negumereanu and showed a very limited gas tank. Leading up to the loss in his debut, Potieria had somehow won 15 straight fights, including a R1 KO on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC. Bear in mind, almost all of those wins were against a very low level of competition.
Now 19-4 as a pro, Potieria has nine wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and four decision victories. All but one of his finishes occurred in the first round, with the other ending in round two. He’s been knocked out three times and has one decision defeat. He’s competed at both 185 lb and 205 lb in his career, but his last four fights have all been at 205 lb, where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, Potieria is technically a Ukrainian international Master of Sport in combat sambo, but he looks like a master of nothing and a total fraud with a one round gas tank and terrible defense both on the feet and the mat. The only good thing you can say about him is that he’s shown decent power, at least for the first three minutes of fights before he gasses out. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns, and has looked prone to getting controlled along the fence and taken down himself. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he failed to land any of his four takedown attempts, while he got taken down twice on three opponent attempts (33% defense). We expect him to get cut with another loss here, although the UFC is so desperate for warm bodies that they just re-signed Cody Brundage, so who even knows anymore.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” with a 75” reach and 27 years old.
This is a low-level matchup between a bad fighter and a terrible fighter and essentially sums up the current state of the lower levels of the UFC roster. Bellato has bad cardio and striking defense, but decent power and grappling, while Potieria has horrendous cardio and striking/grappling defense but okay power. If the fight somehow makes it to the third round, both guys may die of exhaustion, but we would be surprised if it lasted that long. Bellato should be able to at least outlast the three minute gas tank of Potieria, and will have a clear grappling advantage if he opts to take the fight to the mat. Both guys are capable of knocking the other out, but Potieria will have a much smaller window to accomplish that feat and you would expect Bellato to immediately look to grapple if he gets in trouble. That should leave Potieria reliant on landing a clean knockout in the first few minutes of the fight, which is a longshot to happen. Bellato should finish Potieria, it’s just a matter of how and when. Eight of his 10 career finishes ended in round one, but three of his last four fights made it to the second round and Potieria will be especially prone to getting finished after he gasses out late in round one, and going into round two. So a second round finish will likely be completely teed up if it makes it that far. The easiest path to victory for Bellato will be on the mat, but he abandons his grappling at times so it’s tougher to know if we can trust him to take the path of least resistance and his last two finishes both ended in TKOs. So it’s somewhat of a crapshoot as to how Bellato gets it done, but we like him to finish Potieria in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodolfo Bellato SUB” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Bellato has plenty of holes in his game and both his striking defense and cardio look pretty suspect. However, he’s getting a dream matchup in his UFC debut against an opponent with worse cardio and practically no defense. Potieria hits hard enough that it’s hard to completely trust Bellato’s floor, but from a ceiling perspective he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. Potieria has been knocked out in the first two rounds in both of his UFC losses and can’t even last a round before he starts slowing down. He’s also bad on the mat and Bellato should be able to submit him without too much trouble if he chooses to go that route. Whether it be by submission or knockout, we expect Bellato to finish Potieria without too much trouble and his recent second round knockout win on DWCS would have been good for 119 DraftKings points and 124 points on FanDuel. We’ll most likely be looking to fade Bellato in his next fight while the field will be chasing the big score he’s about to put up, so this isn’t a guy you want to wait on. The odds imply Bellato has a 78% chance to win, a 63% chance to land a finish, and a 39% chance it comes in round one.
Potieria has been knocked out in both of his UFC losses and we don’t put much value in him finishing the 41-year-old Shogun Rua who had already announced his retirement and had one foot out the door. While he was able to score 111 DraftKings points in that victory, and does have upside when he wins, those dream matchups don’t come around too often and that’s not a score you want to chase. Potieria is a complete fraud who has no cardio, terrible grappling, and a bad striking defense. While he has decent power, that’s really all he has going for him and that’s not enough to win many fights at the UFC level. He’s reliant on landing hail mary first round knockouts to win fights and has a non-existent scoring floor. The one thing working in his favor is that Bellato also has a bad striking defense and has been knocked out in both of his career losses, but we’re still not excited about playing Potieria here. The odds imply Potieria has a 22% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Drakkar Klose
10th UFC Fight (7-2)It’s been 17 months since Klose last competed after he was forced to the sidelines following an ACL tear in 2022. He won a decision in his last fight against Rafa Garcia, who stepped in on just over two weeks’ notice after Diego Ferreira dropped out. Prior to that, Klose landed his only finish in the UFC, which came in a second round TKO against a low-level opponent in Brandon Jenkins. Klose hadn’t competed in two years leading up to that win, after he had three fights fall through and was injured from a shove during a face off with Jeremy Stephens in April 2021. Klose apparently suffered a herniated disc in the incident and is still dealing with the aftermath to this day. He’s said he’ll eventually need surgery for the injury, but he wants to put it off until he’s done fighting. You have to go all the way back to March 2020 to find Klose’s third most recent fight, which ended in a second round knockout against Beneil Dariush—the only fighter to ever finish Klose. Leading up to those two second round stoppages, Klose fought to six straight decisions in his first six UFC appearances (5-1).
Now 13-2-1 as a pro, Klose has five wins by KO/TKO and eight decisions. Four of his five knockout wins were in his first five pro fights and he has just one early win since 2015. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2020 R2 KO, with his one other loss going the distance in a 2017 decision.
Overall, Klose is a well rounded fighter who mixes in a combination of wrestling and striking as he attacks the opposition with patient pressure. In his nine UFC fights, he landed 14 of his 46 takedown attempts (30.4% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 36 attempts (69.4% defense). While his overall takedown defense has been decent, all seven of the UFC opponents who tried to take him down landed at least one of their attempts. Similarly, Klose landed at least one takedown in 7 of the 8 UFC fights where he attempted one. We generally don’t see huge striking totals in his matches, as he only averages 4.38 SSL/min and 3.44 SSA/min and neither he nor any of his opponents have ever landed more than 100 significant strikes in a fight. He also hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat at the UFC level, with 7 of his 9 UFC fights going the distance. Klose is already 35 years old and has had to deal with multiple injuries. He’s said the next time he suffers a major injury it could force him into retirement.
Joe Solecki
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Solecki is coming off a second round submission win against a low-level opponent in Carl Deaton, who was making his short notice UFC debut. Just before that, Solecki fought to a pair of split decisions (1-1). He was fortunate to get his hand raised in the most recent of those as it looked like the fight was destined to end in a draw after Alex Da Silva was deducted a point in the second round in a fight that Solecki appeared to be losing. One of the judges did score the fight as a draw, but the other two somehow both scored it for Solecki, with one judge giving Solecki a 10-7 second round (after the point deduction) and another scoring round three for him. That came after Solecki lost a split decision to Jared Gordon in October 2021, which snapped a six fight winning streak for Solecki. Solecki got his shot in the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS in 2019, and then absolutely smothered a washed up Matt Wiman for 15 minutes in his 2019 UFC debut. He followed up the lopsided decision win with a first round submission victory against Austin Hubbard in his next match, before winning a decision over Miller just before losing to Gordon.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Solecki has nine submission wins and four decision wins. His only early loss came in a 2018 R3 KO against Nikolas Motta, while Solecki’s other two defeats both went the distance. Eight of Solecki’s nine early wins ended in the first round, while his most recent submission win ended in round two.
Overall, Solecki is a BJJ black belt and a dangerous grappler who’s always looking to take the back of his opponents, with seven rear-naked choke submission wins on his record. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 13 of his 26 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 1 of their 2 attempts (50% defense). Solecki doesn't offer much in the way of striking, which leaves him reliant on his grappling, and we’ve seen him slow down at times in the third round of fights, making it tougher for him to be effective with his grappling and forcing him to strike more. Solecki recently moved from Wilmington to Charlotte to be closer to Gym-O where he trains and now teaches jiu-jitsu. He had been making the four hour drive every week previously but now has his family with him full time and a short commute to train.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” with a 70” reach, but Solecki is five years younger than the 35-year-old Klose.
After facing one of the lowest level fighters on the roster in his last fight, Solecki will get a major step up in competition here, but he has faced several solid opponents in the past, with somewhat mixed results. Klose has a major striking advantage of Solecki, leaving Solecki reliant on his grappling to win the fight. While Klose has been taken down by everyone who’s tried in the UFC, he still has a decent 69% takedown defense and has also never been submitted. He’s an okay wrestler and the advantage he’ll have on the feet is more pronounced than the advantage Solecki will have on the mat. Solecki generally starts fast and all but one of his career finishes occurred in the first round, but tends to fade in the third round of fights. That creates an interesting live betting opportunity on Klose if he loses the first round and the line flips in Solecki’s favor, which is how we see this playing out. The second round could be close, as Solecki will still have the energy to look for takedowns, but may not be quite as effective controlling Klose. Then in round three, Klose should have the advantage and finish the fight strong to force a close decision, which will likely hinge on how the judges score round two. Judges tend to put more weight on how rounds end opposed to how they start, and because we see the momentum swaying in Klose’s favor the longer the fight goes, that should give him a better shot at winning the second round and ultimately winning the fight. Give us Klose in a close decision, that very well may be split.
Our favorite bet here is “Klose/Solecki FGTD” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Klose has averaged 86 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but outside of one monster performance he hasn’t been much of a factor in DFS. While he was able to score a ridiculous 134 points in a second round TKO against a terrible opponent in Brandon Jenkins, Klose’s other six UFC wins all went the distance, with him failing to reach 80 points in four of those. He was able to score 98 and 91 points in two of his decision victories through a combination of striking and wrestling, but he may be less inclined to try and get this fight to the ground. When you combine that with his lower volume striking (4.38 SSL/min) and the potential for him to get controlled for periods of time, this looks like a tougher spot for him to score well in a decision. And considering he only has one finish since 2015, you certainly can’t count on him to end this one early. That leaves him reliant on landing a hail mary knockout to be useful and Solecki has only been finished once in his career. Klose is also coming off a year and a half layoff following ACL surgery, which are both red flags. The odds imply Klose has a 53% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Solecki has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, but his scores have been pretty polarized, as he returned totals of 106, 69, 74, 105, and 119 in those victories. While he was able to score 119 DraftKings points in a smothering decision win in his UFC debut against a washed up Matt Wiman, Solecki only scored 69 and 74 points respectively in his last two decision wins. His third round cardio has looked a little suspect in recent fights, making it tougher for him to dominate legitimate opponents for three full rounds. That leaves him more reliant on locking up submissions, and now he’s facing a tougher opponent who’s never been submitted. Solecki’s cheap price tag and recent second round submission win, combined with the line moving in his favor should drive up his ownership, which lowers his tournament appeal further in this already tough matchup. And while he’s priced as an underdog, he’s not cheap enough to crack tournament winning lineups with an meh score unless we get a slate where only a few underdogs win. While he always has a higher floor on DraftKings than FanDuel, we’re treating him as a submission or bust option on both sites, who will likely be over owned relative to his chances of finding a finish. The odds imply Solecki has a 47% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Zach Reese
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Reese will be making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd following a first round armbar submission win on DWCS. Prior to that, he had been beating up low-level opponents on the Texas regional scene with the Fury FC organization. After his first three pro wins ended in knockouts, he submitted two of his last three opponents.
Now 6-0 as a pro, all six of Reese’s pro wins have come in the first round, with four knockouts and two submissions. Five of those fights ended in 92 seconds or less, with three of his last four wins coming in under a minute. It’s important to keep in mind that he’s been fighting a very low level of competition. His first three wins came against opponents with one combined pro win between them and his second most recent victory was against a 5-10 opponent. Reese has spent most of his career at 185 lb, but did have one fight up at 205 lb in 2022. The only time Reese even lost a fight as an amateur was in his 2012 amateur debut against Kevin Holland.
Overall, Reese is a physically gifted, but very green fighter. He only turned pro in April 2021 and half of his career fights took place this year. He was born and trains in Houston and lives just an hour and a half from where he’ll be making his UFC debut in Austin, Texas. Reese tends to stand very upright with his lead leg extended forward, just begging to be kicked. That leaves him more vulnerable to being taken down, and we’ve yet to see him successfully defend an attempt from an opponent, but Reese is a BJJ purple belt and pretty active off his back, and will also look for guillotines. He trains at the WAR Training Center and works with guys like Alex Morono and Trevin Giles. Reese recently went out to Thailand to train at Bangtao, so he is getting some different looks as he prepares for his UFC debut. He’s never been out of the first round as a pro, so his cardio remains unknown, but he lost the only decision he went to as an amateur. We expect to see some growing pains from him, although he may be able to rely on sheer physicality to beat lower level opponents in the UFC.
Cody Brundage
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Somehow still on the UFC roster, Brundage is coming off of a DQ win over Jacob Malkoun, who was absolutely mauling Brundage on the mat. Malkoun looked close to finding a finish before he landed an elbow to the back of Brundage’s head that resulted in the ref immediately stopping the fight and calling in the doctor. At that point, Brundage saud he could not continue and instead of ruling the foul unintentional, resulting in a No Contest, Mark Smith curiously ruled it a DQ win for Brundage, who was on the final fight of his contract. Prior to that, Brundage lost three straight fights, with the most recent of those losses coming against Sedriques Dumas in one of the stupidest performances you’ll ever see, where Brundage repeatedly jumped guillotine over and over again, despite having the wrestling advantage. Everyone watching was left saying, “This idiot can’t possibly be going for another guillotine…andddd he did it again.” Eight weeks prior to that June 2023 loss, Brundage got submitted in the second round by Rodolfo Vieira, after getting knocked out in the first round of a December 2022 match against Michal Oleksiejczuk. Leading up to those three losses, Brundage landed two first round finishes of his own, although he nearly got finished himself in one of those before pulling off a hail mary guillotine against Dalcha Lungiambula. He then knocked out Tresean Gore in the first round, who appeared to have a brutal weight cut for the match. Brundage’s one other UFC fight was a wrestling-heavy decision loss to Nick Maximov in his short notice UFC debut, and Brundage has made a habit out of taking fights on short notice and typically performing terribly.
Now 9-5 as a pro, Brundage has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, one decision victory, and one DQ win. Five of his seven finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one in round two and another in round three. He’s been knocked out in two of his losses, submitted once, and has two decision defeats. Both of his knockout losses occurred in round one, while his submission defeat came in round two. One of those knockout losses came on DWCS in 2020 against William Knight in a fight took place at 205 lb and Brundage has fought anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb throughout his career. However, his last eight fights have all been at 185 lb and he claims he could even make 170 lb if he really needed to (Spoiler: He may need to soon).
Overall, Brundage is a former college wrestler, who has been working on improving his striking and has decent power. He’s got an unbelievably low fight IQ and makes some of the worst choices you’ll ever see inside of the Octagon. However, he’s still relatively early in his career with just 14 pro fights to his name, and he only turned pro in 2019. Brundage is married to former UFC fighter Amanda Bobby Brundage who went 2-4 with the organization before being released, and best friends with Collin Anglin, who went 0-2 in the UFC and then lost two more after getting cut. Neither of them fight anymore and who knows, maybe Brundage is just over it as well and he basically quits in the middle of all of his recent fights. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Brundage landed 9 takedowns on 18 attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down 7 times on 26 attempts (73.1% defense). Despite training at altitude at Factory X, his cardio has appeared suspect at times, but that hasn’t stopped him from accepting one short notice fight after the next. Somehow the UFC just gave Brundage a new contract, despite his abysmal recent performances and losing record. Brundage recently talked about how he wants to be more patient in this match and take Reese into deep waters, to show that he can win a longer fight. He made it sound like he has no problem winning a decision here and he won’t push as hard for a finish.
Fight Prediction:
Reese will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
The only reasons the UFC resigned Brundage was to fill slots and build up prospects, because he’s always willing to step in on short notice and is too dumb to say no to a bad matchup. We haven’t been especially impressed by Reese and see a lot of holes in his game, but he’s the one hometown fighter on this card and it appears the UFC is feeding him Brundage to try and build him up, as they love physically gifted fighters and the 6’4” Reese fits the bill. Brundage says he wants to take this fight to deep waters, but apparently he’s too stupid to realize that he doesn’t know how to swim himself. He quits in the face of adversity and puts himself in one terrible situation after the next. He’s a wrestler who trains at a Muay Thai gym and his inner circle is filled with UFC washouts. It seemed like he spent the last year trying to burn through his contract as quickly as possible as he took one short notice fight after the next and never took the time to improve. This will be his fifth fight in the last year and the only one of those he “won” was by DQ. Even he was surprised that the UFC resigned him, maybe they realized he wanted out and resigning him was his punishment for the atrocious performances he put on in his last few outings. While he lacks heart and IQ, he does have some wrestling skills and okay power, which always leaves him with a shot at winning fights if he can ever get out of his own way, but his fetish for self-sabotage makes it impossible to ever trust him again, even against a green newcomer like Reese. We expect Brundage to either quit once Reese starts unloading on him or put himself in a stupid position and get submitted. Give us Reese to end this early, most likely in the first round based on the way he fights.
Our favorite bet here is “Reese/Brundage Fight Doesn't Start R2” at -118.
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DFS Implications:
Reese is incredibly green and is likely being brought into the UFC too soon for his own good, but he does have all of the physical tools to be successful and he’s massive at 6’4”. The UFC seemingly re-signed Brundage simply to fill slots and build up prospects, which is exactly what they’re doing here. Reese hasn’t faced any legitimate competition and that arguably won’t change in his UFC debut as he faces a quitter in Brundage who has basically given up in four straight fights as soon as he runs onto any adversity. Reese has the ability to knock opponents out or submit them, both of which will be in play here as Brundage will inevitably put himself in terrible situations once again. With all six of his pro wins ending in the first round and three of his last four being stopped in the opening minute, Reese has shown clear scoring upside, at least on the regional scene against a low level of competition. However, that also means he’s never seen the second round as a pro, and has the potential to turn into a pumpkin if he can’t get Brundage out of there early. That at least adds some uncertainty to Reese’s scoring floor, meaning you probably only want to play him in tournaments. The odds imply Reese has a 66% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 36% chance it comes in round one.
Brundage has averaged 103 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, but that number should have an asterisk beside it as his most recent “win” came via DQ in a fight he was getting dominated. He was also getting destroyed in one of his other two wins before he locked up a hail mary first round guillotine against Dalcha Lungiambula, and Brundage could easily be 1-6 in the UFC instead of 3-4. With that said, all three of his UFC wins ended in the first round, and when he has won, he’s shown solid scoring potential. However, he’s a quitter with a terrible fight IQ and will actively do everything within his power to lose fights, so prepare to be hurt if you play him. It’s truly shocking that the UFC resigned him after his last fight, but it seems like they enjoy watching him suffer and Brundage is a glutton for punishment who’s always willing to step in on short notice. Reese is bad enough that you can’t completely count Brundage out, but the idea of putting your money behind Brundage is truly nauseating. The odds imply Brundage has a 34% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Julia Avila
5th UFC Fight (3-1)It’s been two and a half years since Avila last competed, when she surprisingly submitted Julija Stoliarenko late in the third round of a close fight. Avila had then been booked to fight Raquel Pennington in December 2021, but was forced to drop out after she tore her ACL and meniscus. Knowing she would be out for a while, she decided to multi-task and had a baby while recovering from knee surgery. She ballooned up to 225 lb during her pregnancy and had a tough time getting the weight off after giving birth. That extended her layoff as she tried to lose 100 lb in 2023. And due to her extended layoff and need for insurance, she was forced to return to a regular job during her time away, as she’s been working as a data analyst in the oil and gas industry. Looking back at her UFC career, Avila suffered her only UFC loss just before her win over Stoliarenko, when she lost a wrestling-heavy decision to Sijara Eubanks. That came just after Avila landed a quick 22 second R1 TKO over a terrible Gina Mazany, following a decision victory over Pannie Kianzad in Avila’s 2019 UFC debut.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Avila has four KO/TKO wins, two submissions, and three decision victories. Four of her six finishes ended in round one, with the other two spread across the later rounds. However, four of her last five fights saw the second round. The only time she’s ever been “finished” was in a 2018 R1 TKO due to a finger injury, with her one other loss going the distance.
Overall, Avila is an aggressive striker with an extra gear that most fighters don’t possess. She’s also a BJJ brown belt and submitted a grappler in her last fight, showing that she is a threat to finish fights wherever they go. However, she really struggled with being taken down and controlled in her second most recent fight, which is concerning as she faces another wrestler in this next match. In Avila’s four UFC fights, she landed 2 of her 6 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 5 of their 13 attempts (61.5% defense). Avila got taken down at least once in all three of her UFC fights that made it past the 22 second mark, while she also landed a takedown of her own in each of her last two matches. Considering Avila hasn’t fought since June 2021, just had a baby, and had to cut 90 lb to get back down to 135 lb, it will be critical to monitor her closely at weigh-ins.
Miesha Tate
13th UFC Fight (6-6)Returning to 135 lb following a failed attempt at moving down to 125 lb, Tate has lost two straight and four of her last five fights. Tate won the Bantamweight belt in 2016 in a fifth round submission over Holly Holm, but then immediately lost to Amanda Nunes just four months later in a first round submission. Tate then lost a three-round decision to Raquel Pennington at the end of 2016 and retired following the match. Almost five years later, Tate came out of retirement in July 2021 and landed a third round TKO over a 44-year-old half retired Marion Reneau, who came in on a four fight losing streak and hung it up after the loss to Tate. However, Tate then lost a five-round decision to Ketlen Vieira, before moving down to 125 lb for the first time in her career in July 2022, where she got beat up by Lauren Murphy for three rounds in another decision loss. Tate failed to land any of her seven takedown attempts in the loss to Murphy, after only landing one of her six attempts against Vieira. It’s now been 17 months since Tate’s last MMA fight, but she did take a grappling match at the end of 2022, but lost via armbar. Tate was booked to fight Mayra Bueno Silva in June 2023, but withdrew after she tore a tendon in her hand.
Now 19-9 as a pro, Tate has four wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and eight decision victories. She’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has four decision defeats. Twelve of her last 13 fights made it to the third round, with seven going the distance. So when her fights have ended early, those finishes typically come in the final round (3-2). Tate started her career at 145 lb, before quickly dropping down to 135 lb. She then tested the waters at 125 lb in her last fight, but will be returning to 135 lb here.
Overall, Tate is a one-dimensional wrestler, and is pretty terrible on the feet, averaging just 2.61 SSL/min and 3.10 SSA/min. However, she’s not even that good of a wrestler and has never landed more than three takedowns in a fight. In her 12 UFC fights, Tate landed 14 of her 63 takedown attempts (22.2% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 19 of their 45 attempts (57.8% defense). For the record, her official UFC stats (29% accuracy and 55% defense) also factor in her Strikeforce stats before she joined the UFC. Tate only landed 1 of her 13 takedown attempts in her last eight rounds in the cage and has really struggled to get anyone down lately. She’s now 37 years old and moving back up a weight class, so it will be important to monitor her on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Avila will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being two years younger than the 37-year-old Tate.
Both of these two are coming off extended layoffs and injuries, as Tate hasn’t fought in a year and a half and Avila hasn’t competed in two and a half years. Tate suffered a hand injury earlier this year, while Avila is coming off a torn ACL. Avila had a baby in October 2022, while Tate is a few years removed from having her second child. Tate will be moving back up to 135 lb from 125 lb, while Avila is cutting down from 225 lb to 135 lb after blowing up during pregnancy. So there are a lot of variables in play, which all add some uncertainty to the mix. However, if Avila can regain her past form she should be able to torch Tate on the feet if she can keep the fight standing. There are some concerns with Avila’s defensive wrestling based on how Sijara Eubanks was able to control her on the mat, but that fight was also over three years ago and Avila claims to have worked on her wrestling since then. Avila is also a BJJ brown belt and is coming off a submission win, so it’s not like she’s helpless on the mat. And Tate has been extremely unimpressive with her wrestling lately, so it’s hard to trust her to capitalize even if there is still a defensive deficiency on Avila’s side of things. Avila is so aggressive with her striking that she should be able to easily overwhelm Tate on the feet, with a good chance she can force a stoppage as she pours it on. Tate’s only path to victory is on the mat, and considering she’s only landed one takedown in her last eight rounds of action, we don’t have much confidence in her wrestling at this stage in her career. We like Avila’s chances of finishing Tate, most likely in an early TKO.
Our favorite bet here is “Julia Avila ITD” at +290.
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DFS Implications:
Avila has averaged 97 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins, but only scored 73 points in her lone decision victory. Her last two wins both ended early, with a 22 second R1 TKO that was good for 120 points and a third round submission that scored 97. She’s very aggressive and has the ability to unload long combinations for punches and six of her nine career wins ended early. That leaves her with a high scoring ceiling, but her floor remains uncertain. She hasn’t fought in two and a half years and is coming off ACL surgery and having a baby. She said she got huge during pregnancy and had to cut 90 lb to get back down to 135 lb, which leaves a lot of questions surrounding her current form. We also saw her struggle with her defensive wrestling in her lone UFC loss, where she got taken down three times and controlled by Sijara Eubanks for 10 minutes in a decision defeat. Now she’ll face another wrestler here, so there’s always the possibility for her to get taken down and controlled. However, Tate has been very unimpressive with her wrestling lately, landing just one of her 13 attempts in her last two fights, while Avila talked about how she’s been working on improving her ground game. Nevertheless, that does create one possible avenue for how Avila fails here, leaving her with a wider range of scoring outcomes. However, if she can keep the fight standing, she should have a massive striking advantage and will have a good shot at landing the finish she needs to score well. The odds imply Avila has a 57% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Tate has averaged just 78 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins, failing to top 80 points in five of those. The only time she ever scored well was in her last win, when she finished a 44-year-old half retired Marion Reneau with a third round TKO. That’s also Tate’s only win since 2016 and she’s now 37 years old and will be changing weight classes for the second straight fight. She’s moving back up to 135 lb, is coming off two straight losses, landed just 1 of her 13 takedown attempts in those two defeats, hasn’t fought in a year and a half, and tore a tendon in her hand earlier in 2023. So she comes in with numerous red flags and is a one-dimensional grappler who doesn’t offer much on the feet. If she can’t get this fight to the ground, she’ll be in real trouble, and there’s a good chance she’ll get finished. Five of her nine career losses ended early, leaving her with a very shaky floor and she also hasn’t shown much of a ceiling. Her wrestling-heavy style does leave her as a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but we’re not very excited about playing her on either site. The odds imply Tate has a 43% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Joaquim Silva
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Looking to bounce back from a third round TKO loss against an incredibly tough Arman Tsarukyan, Silva is just 1-3 in his last four and only has two wins in his last six outings. To Silva’s credit, he was able to hurt Tsarukyan in the second round, but that was the only success he was able to find in the match. Prior to that, Silva landed a second round knockout win over Jesse Ronson, who had just been submitted following a PED suspension and was cut following his second straight early loss. Leading up to that win, Silva was knocked out in back-to-back fights by a couple of decision grinders. The first of those was in the second round of a 2019 fight against Nasrat Haqparast, who hasn’t finished anybody else in his 11-fight UFC career, and the second was against Ricky Glenn, who also hasn’t finished anybody else in his 10 UFC fights and was also coming off a three year layoff and has since gone 0-2-1. Silva also hadn’t competed in two years leading up to that loss to Gleen. Silva's second most recent win was all the way back in 2018, when he knocked out Jared Gordon in the third round. Silva did have a grappling match in 2021 against the highly submittable Neil Magney that he won via guillotine, but he’s never submitted anybody in the UFC and his last MMA submission win was in a 2014 armbar. Two of his first three UFC wins ended in split decisions, but three of his last four UFC victories came by knockout.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Silva has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times and has one decision loss. His last five fights all ended in knockouts (2-3), but four of those made it out of the first round. Silva started his career at 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb when he went on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2015, where he ended up getting submitted in his third fight on the show.
Overall, Silva’s nickname is “Netto BJJ” and he’s a BJJ black belt, but he’s never submitted anybody in the UFC and rarely looks for takedowns, with just one landed on two attempts in his nine UFC fights (50% accuracy). On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 14 of their 34 attempts (58.8% defense). Silva has decent power, but he only averages 3.71 SSL/min and failed to land more than 49 significant strikes in eight of his nine UFC matches with the one exception coming when he landed 95 against Jared Gordon. Silva trains at American Top Team so he has a good team around him, but he’s already 34 years old and is who he is at this point. He doesn’t have the best cardio or a great chin, in addition to his subpar takedown defense, and we’ve never been very impressed by him.
Clay Guida
36th UFC Fight (18-17)Now 41 years old, Guida has traded wins and losses for seven straight fights and is coming off a decision loss to Rafa Garcia in a pure striking battle where Garcia outlanded Guida 141-63 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Guida won a split decision over a retiring Scott Holtzman, after getting submitted in the first round by kneebar specialist Claudio Puelles in a fight where Guida initiated the grappling. Just before that, Guida was nearly finished in the first round by Leonardo Santos, but was able to survive and then Santos completely gassed out, allowing Guida to finish him in round two. Looking back one fight further, Guida suffered a split-decision loss as he got outstruck by Mark O. Madsen, after Guida won a wrestling-heavy decision over Michael Johnson.
Now 38-23 as a pro, Guida has seven wins by KO, 14 submissions, 16 decision victories, and one Other/NA all the way back in 2004. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted 11 times, has nine decision defeats, and one Other/NA, also in 2004. Apparently Guida has been fighting so long they weren’t even properly documenting some of his early career fights, hence the Other/NA results. Guida has only finished two opponents since 2011—a 2017 R1 TKO win over Joe Lauzon and a 2021 R2 submission win over Leonardo Santos. Guida has gone 7-3 in his last 10 decisions, although he’s just 2-3 in his last five. His fights typically end either in decisions or with him getting submitted and the last time he was knocked out was in 2016.
Overall, Guida’s kinetic fighting style relies on him outlasting his opponents to win decisions and he’s known for his never ending gas tank. He’s been prone to getting submitted, with 11 of his 23 career losses ending in submissions. He turned pro all the way back in 2003 but still has cardio for days at 41 years old. He has a wrestling background, but isn’t especially dangerous anywhere and generally relies on his opponents tiring out to win fights. In his last 10 UFC fights, he landed 13 of his 48 takedown attempts (27.1% accuracy), while he was only taken down by his opponents twice on just five attempts (60% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Silva will have a 1” height advantage, but Guida will have a 1” reach advantage. Silva is seven years younger than the 41-year-old Guida.
Guida basically has just one path to victory at this stage in his career, which is grinding out wrestling-heavy decisions. He’s been very prone to getting submitted throughout his career, with three of his last four submission losses coming via guillotine. That’s concerning for a guy that relies on landing takedowns to win fights. While Silva has never submitted anybody in the UFC, he is a BJJ black belt and his nickname is literally “Netto BJJ.” He also did lock up a guillotine in a grappling match against Neil Magny in 2021, so he is capable of locking up submissions. However, Silva’s 58% takedown defense hasn’t been very impressive and he also has suspect cardio, so if he can’t find his first UFC submission win, it’s entirely possible that Guida can wear him down with his wrestling and pull off the major upset in a decision win. Silva also likes to throw jumping knees, which is how he secured his last finish, so Guida will need to be mindful shooting in or he could eat a knee to the face and potentially get knocked out. So there are multiple ways Silva could end this fight early, but if it goes the distance we like Guida’s chances. That makes it a slightly trickier spot when it comes to picking a side, but Guida’s only wins in the last half a decade were against aging fighters and it’s hard to have much confidence in him at this stage in his career. As the odds suggest, it’s more likely that Silva finishes Guida, and we’ll say he gets it done with a first round guillotine.
Our favorite bet here is “Joaquim Silva SUB” at +400.
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DFS Implications:
Silva has averaged 85 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, but his scoring has been very polarized. He averaged just 53 points in his two decision wins, failing to top 55 points in either of those, but averaged 107 points in his three knockout victories. However, the only time he topped 100 points was in a 2016 34 second knockout that garnered the Quick Win Bonus and his last two finishes scored “only” 100 and 94 points respectively. He only averages 3.71 SSL/min and has landed just one takedown in nine UFC appearances. He’ll also be facing an opponent who will be looking to take him down and control him, which could furth limit Silva’s output. That likely leaves Silva reliant on landing a well timed knockout or a submission in the opening 60 seconds of the fight to return value on DraftKings at his high price tag. And while Guida has been submitted 11 times in his career, he’s only been knocked out twice, with the most recent of those occurring all the way back in 2016. There’s a good chance we could see Silva complete a guillotine on Guida and fail to score enough to be useful at his high price tag, so we’re not especially excited about playing him. The odds imply Silva has a 74% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Guida is generally looking to grind out grappling-heavy decisions, which keeps him in play more on DraftKings than FanDuel. In his last 10 wins, Guida averaged 92 DraftKings points, despite eight of those victories going the distance. However, the only time he hit the century mark was in a 2017 first round TKO over Joe Lauzon, so while Guida has shown a solid floor, he rarely hits much of a ceiling. He can still serve as a value play at his cheap price tag, but at 41 years old you probably want to temper expectations to some extent. His lone path to victory at this point is to grind out wrestling-heavy decisions and he’s always at risk of getting submitted, which leaves him as a low floor, low ceiling play who needs to land takedowns and keep his neck safe for 15 minutes to pull off the upset. Working in his favor, Silva has just a 58% takedown defense and suspect cardio, so if Guida can avoid getting finished early, his chances of winning should go up the longer the fight goes. And based on their pricing, ownership, and chances of ending up in the winning lineup in a victory, we’d rather play Guida than Silva on DraftKings. The odds imply Guida has a 26% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Punahele Soriano
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Desperate for a win, Soriano is just 1-3 in his last four outings and is coming off his first career early loss in a second round TKO against a really dangerous striker in Roman Kopylov, who did a great job of crippling Soriano with body shots. Prior to that, Soriano landed a second round knockout of his own against Dalcha Lungiambula, who has been finished in three straight fights and is just 1-5 in his last six outings. Leading up to that win, Soriano lost a pair of decisions to Nick Maximov and Brendan Allen, after landing first round knockouts in his first two UFC fights. The loss to Allen was the first time Soriano had ever tasted defeat, after starting his career off 8-0 with seven first round finishes.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Soriano has six wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. Seven of his eight finishes occurred in round one, with the most recent ending 28 seconds into round two. Three of his four career fights to last longer than five and a half minutes ended with the judges (1-2) with the other being his recent R2 TKO loss. All three of Soriano’s UFC wins ended in knockouts.
Overall, Soriano is a violent striker and was also an All-American collegiate wrestler. However, he’s typically not looking to wrestle very much and relies on landing bombs on the feet. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Soriano landed just 4 of his 10 takedown attempts (40% accuracy), and three of those takedowns were on DWCS. He’s only landed one takedown in his six UFC matches and that was in his debut. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 14 of their 20 attempts and the last three opponents who tried to take him down were all successful. He’s said in the past that he uses his wrestling to keep fights on the feet so he can look for knockouts, although he more recently mentioned that he has the wrestling background and maybe he should use it. And with that in mind, he did attempt three takedowns in his last fight, but failed to land any of those. After a fast start to his UFC career, with four knockdowns landed in his first two UFC fights, Soriano has only landed one knockdown in his last four matches and hasn’t shown any sort of growth since joining the organization, as he remains a one-dimensional power puncher or slows down after the first round. However, he has faced stiff competition in his losses and will now get a much easier opponent.
Dustin Stoltzfus
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Stoltzfus is 15 months removed from a 19 second first round TKO loss to a debuting Abusupiyan Magomedov, who is now 1-2 in the UFC. Stoltzfus got kicked in the face right out of the gate in that match and was then quickly finished. When asked about why he had such a long layoff after that last fight, Stoltzfus said he’s had COVID four times, with long lasting symptoms from it. Prior to that loss, Stoltzfus saved his job in the UFC with a decision victory over Dwight Grant after starting off 0-3 with the organization. All three of those losses all came against grapplers in Kyle Daukaus, Rodolfo Vieira, and Gerald Meerschaert, while his lone win was against a one-dimensional striker in Dwight Grant, who was moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb for the first time in the UFC following two straight losses and hasn’t fought since suffering his third straight loss. Stoltzfus lost a decision in his 2020 debut against Daukaus, before getting submitted in the third round by both Vieira and Meerschaert.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Stoltzfus has two wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, six decisions, and one DQ win. He’s been finished in three of his five losses, with a first round knockout and two third round submissions. His other two losses both went the distance. Stoltzfus competed as high as 205 lb some early in his career, but has fought exclusively at 185 lb since 2015.
Overall, Stoltzfus is a low-level grappler based out of Germany who also spends time training in Las Vegas. He’s done nothing to impress us in his career and it’s surprising the UFC re-signed him after his 1-3 start. He’s a black belt in Luta Livre and is typically looking to get fights to the mat and between his five UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 7 of his 20 takedown attempts (35% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 13 attempts (46.2% defense). All four of the opponents who tried to take him down were successful, while Stoltzfus failed to land a takedown in half of the UFC fights where he attempted one. Stoltzfus only averages 2.96 SSL/min and has yet to land more than 67 significant strikes in a UFC fight, and there’s nothing he really does well. He hasn’t looked like much of a threat to knock anybody out at the UFC level and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019. So while half of his career wins have come early, he doesn’t look like much of a finishing threat.
Fight Prediction:
Stoltzfus will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two have been struggling lately, with Soriano going 1-3 in his last four and Stoltzfus sitting on a 1-4 UFC record. They both have wrestling backgrounds, but neither of them have looked very good when it comes to grappling. Soriano at least has his knockout power to hang his hat on, while Stoltzfus has nothing really going for him. He had been fairly durable up until his recent knockout loss, but then he got immediately finished so it’s harder to trust his chin moving forward. Soriano should be looking to test it early and often, so we shouldn’t have to wait long to find out if that last loss was a fluke for Stoltzfus. If Soriano can’t knock him out in the first round and a half, the fight will likely go the distance, as Soriano’s power quickly fades as fights go on. Soriano should still be able to do enough to get his hand raised in a decision if he can’t find a finish and we don’t really see any path to victory for Stoltzfus, even though Soriano hasn’t been especially impressive. While we won’t be surprised if this ultimately goes the distance, based on how terrible Stoltzfus is, we’ll say Soriano knocks him out in the opening round and a half, most likely in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Punahele Soriano R1 or R2 KO” at +160.
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DFS Implications:
Soriano put up slate-breaking DraftKings scores of 128 and 124 in a pair of first round knockouts that each included two knockdowns in his first two UFC appearances, but followed that up with a pair of disappointing decision losses where he scored exactly 27 points each time. He then found some middleground when he landed a second round knockout that was good for just 87 points, but then got finished in the second round himself in his last match. He’s now gone just 1-3 in his last four matches and it’s been two and a half years since he was relevant in DFS. However, he’s facing a major step down in competition here so this looks like a good get-right spot for him. With that said, he’s been nothing more than a R1 KO or bust play in DFS so far and he lacks the striking volume and grappling to score well in longer fights. The odds imply Soriano has a 74% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Stoltzfus is just 1-4 in the UFC and only scored 78 DraftKings points in a decision in his lone victory. He hasn’t competed in 15 months following the first knockout loss of his career and has done nothing to show he belongs in the organization. His lone win came against a struggling one-dimensional striker who was moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb following two straight losses and then never competed again after losing to Stoltzfus. Even as the second cheapest fighter on the card, we have no real interest in playing Stoltzfus and he’ll need some sort of freak accident to score well. He should have been cut by now, but the UFC is desperate to fill cards to fulfill their ESPN deal, so anyone with a pulse is allowed to hang around. The odds imply Stoltzfus has a 26% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Sean Brady
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Brady is 14 months removed from his first career loss when he got finished in a R2 TKO against Belal Muhammad. Since then, Brady has struggled to get back inside the Octagon, as he dropped out of his last two scheduled fights due to injuries and infections. Brady’s second most recent fight was 25 months ago, when he won a decision over Michael Chiesa. Prior to that, Brady landed a pair of late-round submissions over Jake Matthews and Christian Aguilera, after winning decisions in his first two UFC fights against Ismail Naurdiev and Court McGee. Those first three UFC wins were all against pretty dubious competition and Chiesa also seems pretty washed up as he’s lost three straight. So the only notable win of Brady’s career was his victory over Jake Matthews. When Brady finally faced some adversity in his last fight against a similarly well rounded fighter in Muhammad, we saw Brady wilt late in the second round as Muhammad put it on him and the fight was stopped in a standing TKO.
Now 15-1 as a pro, Brady has three wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and eight decision victories. Two of his knockout wins came in the first round of his first five pro fights, while his most recent TKO victory came in the fourth round of a 2019 match. The first submission win of his career came in round one, but the last three all ended in the later rounds, with two in round two, and one in round three. The only loss of his career came late in the second round of his last fight.
Overall, Brady is a powerful grappler who also has good striking, but showed in his last match that he makes a much better hammer than a nail. He’s a BJJ black belt with a mean one-armed guillotine choke, but his inability to finish Micahel Chiesa, who has been finished in all six of his other pro losses, is concerning for Brady’s finishing potential moving forward as he faces guys at the top of the division. In his six UFC fights, Brady landed 14 of his 28 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down just once on eight attempts (87.5% defense). It will be interesting to see how Brady bounces back from his first career loss after over a year away from competition.
Kelvin Gastelum
22nd UFC Fight (12-8, NC)Despite winning his last fight at 185 lb in an action-packed decision over Chris Curtis, Gastelum is dropping back down to 170 lb for the first time since 2016. Gastelum had been scheduled to make his return to Welterweight back in September against Shavkat Rakhmonov, but ended up dropping out after suffering a facial fracture. Injuries and fight cancellations have plagued Gastelum throughout his career, and four of his last five booked opponents have fallen through. The win over Curtis is Gastelum’s only fight since August 2021, when he lost a five round-decision to Jared Cannonier, after losing another five-round decision to Robert Whittaker. Gastelum is just 2-5 in his last seven fights, with his one other win over that stretch coming in a 2021 decision over Ian Heinisch, who’s lost four of his last five fights. Seven of Gastelum’s last eight fights went the distance, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 submission loss to Jack Hermansson. The last time Gastelum finished anybody was when he knocked out a half retired Michael Bisping in the final fight of his career back in 2017.
Now 18-8 as a pro, Gastelum has six wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and seven decision victories. All of his submission wins occurred early in his career from 2009 to 2014, while his last three knockout wins occurred back in 2015 to 2017. While Gastelum has never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice and has six decision losses. Gastelum has fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb in the UFC, but has been competing at 185 lb since 2016, although will now be dropping back down to 170 lb.
Overall, Gastelum relies mostly on his striking but is a black belt in 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu and has a high school and college wrestling background. In his last 10 fights, Gastelum landed 10 of his 44 takedown attempts (22.7% accuracy), but only once landed more than a single takedown in any of those fights. On the other side of things, his last 10 opponents got him down on 14 of their 38 attempts (63.2% defense). Gastelum rarely puts up big striking totals and averages just 3.63 SSL/min and 3.31 SSA/min. He’s still just 32 years old, but he’s been around forever and joined the UFC in early 2013. It will be critical to monitor Gastelum closely on the scale as he makes his return to 170 lb here.
Fight Prediction:
Brady will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is also a year younger than the 32-year-old Gastelum.
This is an interesting matchup with several variables in play. Gastelum is returning to 170 lb for the first time since 2016 and it remains to be seen how he’ll look cutting the additional 15 lb. And on Brady’s side of things, he’s coming off the first loss of his career and hasn’t competed in over a year. He got kind of exposed on the feet in that fight and didn’t show the ability to bounce back from adversity. We just saw Gastelum go to war with Chris Curtis, and if the move down to 170 lb doesn’t kill him, he could give Brady serious trouble on the feet. While they both have grappling backgrounds, Brady has looked like much more of a submission threat, and we did see Gastelum get quickly submitted in his last early loss. So there is the potential for Brady to lock something up and finish Gastelum on the mat, and if Gastelum leaves his chin on the scale, it’s also possible he could get knocked out for the first time. However, we like this fight to end in a close decision as long as the weight cut goes okay for Gastelum. We could see it going either way depending on how much grappling success Brady has, and won’t be at all surprised if the judges end up being split, especially since it’s in Texas where the judging is consistently terrible. There are red flags on both sides and it’s hard to confidently pick back either guy. However, Gastelum has been taken down by five of the last six opponents who tried, and we’ll say Brady does enough with his grappling to win a close decision, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Gastelum’s return to 170 lb.
Our favorite bet here is “Brady/Gastelum FGTD” at +105.
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DFS Implications:
Brady has averaged 99 DraftKings in his five UFC wins, although after scoring between 99 and 105 points in all of his first four victories, he only scored 83 points in his last win, which was over two years ago. He’s now coming off the first loss of his career when he got finished by a decision grinder in Belal Muhammad in October 2022, and it’s been over a year since Brady last competed. Those are all red flags and perhaps Brady wasn’t quite ready to take on the upper echelon of the division. Now he gets a volatile matchup against Gastelum, who’s dropping back down to 170 lb for the first time since 2016, so it’s tougher to know exactly how this fight will play out. Brady has historically relied on his grappling to score well, and Gastelum does have a wrestling background, although has also been taken down by five of the last six opponents who tried. Gastelum has also been submitted twice in the past, so it’s possible Brady can finish him on the mat if he can get it there. As the cheapest favorite on the card, Brady doesn’t need to put up a huge score to crack the optimal lineup, but there are certainly ways he wins and still gets left out with an average scoring performance. Gastelum hasn’t finished anybody since 2017, so Brady should have a pretty safe floor here, which when combined with his typically higher ownership makes him a good play in low-risk contests. The odds imply Brady has a 52% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Gastelum has averaged 88 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins and has generally relied on landing finishes to score well. The only time he scored more than 82 points in a decision win was when he landed a career best six takedowns against Ian Heinisch 2021 and scored 95 points. His other two most recent decision wins were only good for 67 and 63 points respectively and even at his cheaper price tag that’s not enough to be useful. Now he’ll face a dangerous grappling Brady who has an 87% takedown defense, so you can’t rely on Gastelum landing many if any takedowns. That leaves him reliant on landing a finish, something he hasn’t done since 2017 when he knocked out a half retired Michael Bisping. The fact that Gastelum is dropping down to 170 lb does add some volatility to the mix, but that’s far more likely to negatively impact him in this fight than be a benefit. So we’re treating Gastelum as a hail mary KO or bust option in a tough matchup. The odds imply Gastelum has a 48% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Rob Font
17th UFC Fight (10-6)Font will be looking to bounce back from a smothering five-round decision loss to Cory Sandhagen, where Font got taken down seven times on seven attempts and controlled for nearly 20 minutes. In fairness to Font, he took that fight on short notice and in fairness to Sandhagen he suffered a fully torn tricep in the first round that left him limited in what he could do. Font has gone just 1-3 in his last four fights and his only win in the last two and a half years was a first round TKO against Adrian Yanez in Font’s second most recent fight. Font’s last three losses were all in five-round decisions, as was his second most recent win. All of those defeats came against really tough opponents in Sandhagen, Marlon Vera, and Jose Aldo. Font absorbed a ton of damage against Vera and Aldo, although barely took any damage in the loss to Sandhagen. Prior to those losses, Font won four straight fights, with the last of those wins coming in a five-round decision over Cody Garbrandt. Seven of Font’s last nine fights went the distance, with the other two ending in first round TKO wins.
Now 20-7 as a pro, Font has nine KO/TKO victories, four submissions, and seven decision wins. Twelve of his 13 early wins occurred in the first two rounds, with nine in round one and three in round two. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted once in a 2017 first round guillotine. His other six losses all went the distance. Font started his pro career in 2011 at 155 lb, before dropping down to 145 lb in 2012 in his third pro fight. He didn’t move down to 135 lb until his UFC debut in 2014. He never had a problem with the cut over his next 13 UFC fights, before missing weight by 2.5 lb for his fight against Vera. However, he made weight with no issues in his fight against Yanez and then his last match was at a 140 lb Catchweight since he stepped in on short notice.
Overall, Font is most well known for his excellent jab that he does a great job of working behind to put up big striking totals. He’s only been outlanded three times in 16 UFC fights and in his career he averages 5.71 SSL/min and 3.70 SSA/min. He’ll also mix in takedowns, with at least one landed in each of his last six fights to make it out of the first round. In his 16 UFC fights, he landed 13 of his 35 takedown attempts (37.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 25 of their 47 attempts (46.8% defense). Now 36 years old, Font hasn’t been wearing damage very well lately and nearly got finished by both Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo. He took nearly a year off after those defeats, and while he looked good offensively in his return when he defeated Yanez, we still saw his face immediately swell up in the match. That will be something to monitor with him moving forward.
Deiveson Figueiredo
15th UFC Fight (10-3-1)Moving up to 135 lb for the first time in his career, Figueiredo will finally face a new opponent for the first time in three years after his last four fights were all against Brandon Moreno for the Flyweight belt (1-2-1). Moreno finished Figueiredo in the third round in two of those fights, while the other two ended in close decisions. The last time Figueiredo faced anyone besides Moreno was in November 2020, when he submitted Alex Perez in the first round, after originally winning the Flyweight belt in July 2020 against an aging Joseph Benavidez, who retired one fight later. That was actually the second straight time Figueiredo finished the former Flyweight champion in Benavidez, but Figueiredo missed weight by 2.5 lb in their first match and was ineligible to win the belt. The first of those wins ended in a second round knockout, which remains Figueiredo’s only KO victory in his last 10 fights, but he does have three submission wins over that stretch, all in the first round.
Now 21-3-1 as a pro, Figueiredo has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and four decision victories. Seven of Figueiredo’s 10 UFC wins ended early with four KOs and three submissions. However, his last two and three of his last four finishes ended in submissions. All four of his UFC KO wins came in round two, while all three submissions ended in round one. He has one TKO loss and one submission defeat on his record, both in the third round against Brandon Moreno in Figueiredo’s last three fights. The only other loss of Figueiredo’s career was a 2019 decision against Jussier Formiga in a low-volume grappling match where Figueiredo was taken down three times and controlled for nearly half the fight.
Overall, Figueiredo is a BJJ black belt and a powerful striker and is dangerous anywhere a fight can go. He had crazy power at 125 lb, although it remains to be seen how that power will translate up at 135 lb. He also does a good job of mixing in takedowns, but has never landed more than two in a UFC fight and is more of a submission over position type fighter. He’s never finished a UFC fight with more than 6:03 in control time and loves looking for guillotines opposed to trying to just control opponents on the mat. He also only averages 3.09 SSL/min and 3.50 SSA/min, and has never landed more than 67 significant strikes in a three round fight. Figueiredo routinely struggled to make 125 lb, and is now 35 years old, so it makes sense that he decided to move up to 135 lb after losing the Flyweight belt for the second time. However, while he was a potent finisher against smaller opponents at 125 lb, he still needs to show that he can be as dangerous at 135 lb, which is no easy feat. He’s been going back and forth in recent fights between training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready and in his home of Brazil, but he said he spent this camp with Cejudo, which is where he trained for his one win over Moreno, while he went back to Brazil leading up to his recent loss. Figueiredo hasn’t been very active lately as he’s dealt with hand and finger injuries and only fought once in 2021, once in 2022, and once before this in 2023, which was all the way back in January.
Fight Prediction:
Font will have a 3” height and reach advantage, but is actually a year older than Figueiredo.
Font asked for this fight and Figueiredo accepted, so clearly they both like the matchup. After seeing Font get dominated on the mat for five rounds in his last outing, you have to assume that Figueiredo will be looking to test him on the mat, especially since Figueiredo has been training with Cejudo to prepare for this fight. However, Figueiredo has never been a guy to grind out decisions on the mat and he’s never landed more than two takedowns in a fight or finished with more than 6:03 in control time. He’s typically looking to lock up chokes in the grappling exchanges and has a pretty nasty guillotine. All eight of his career submission wins ended in the first round, and he’s typically a fast starter who slows down later in fights. However, it remains to be seen how he’ll look at 135 lb and cutting less weight could benefit him, or carrying more weight could slow him down. That adds some inherent volatility to this matchup, but we often see fighters struggle when they join a new weight class, especially later in their careers. Font is the taller and longer fighter and has a great jab to maximize those advantages, and he should also benefit from the larger cage as he tries to stay at range and control the distance. However, Font will also need to respect the grappling threat of Figueiredo, so he may come in a little more cautiously early on when Figueiredo is the most dangerous. Font really needs a win above all else here to get back on track, so we don’t expect him to take too many unnecessary risks. That increases the chances of this fight going the distance, although both fighters are capable of finishing the other. Figueiredo’s best shot at winning will be with a first round submission and don’t be surprised if he jumps guillotine early in the fight. However, as long as Font can keep his neck safe, we like him to outland his way to a decision win. Just keep in mind, this card is in Texas where judging has historically been terrible.
Our favorite bet here is “Font/Figueiredo FGTD” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Font consistently scores well when he wins, as he’s averaged 108 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC victories, with nine scores of 100 or more. That makes sense when you consider that 7 of his 10 UFC wins ended early and another was in a five-round decision. He’s gone 2-2 in three-round decisions in the UFC, winning the last two of those and scoring 73 and 100 DraftKings points respectively in those two victories. So he’s yet to show a huge ceiling in three round fights that go the distance, but he has shown some scoring potential. However, at his higher price tag he’ll likely still need a finish to crack the optimal lineup. With that said, Font has shown the ability to rack up striking volume while also mixing in takedowns, and we still don’t know how Figueiredo will look at 135 lb. So if Font can completely dominate the fight, it’s not impossible that he could score enough to be useful without a finish, but it is unlikely. The only fighter to ever finish Figueiredo is Moreno, although his Flyweight stats are less relevant now that he’s moving up to Bantamweight. The move in weight makes this a volatile spot with a wider range of potential scoring outcomes, but we’re treating Font as needing a finish to be useful and think he’s more likely to win a decision and fail to score enough to be useful. The odds imply Font has a 57% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Figueiredo has averaged 99 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, with seven of those ending early and another coming in a five-round title fight. In his two three-round decision wins, he only scored 81 and 45 DraftKings points respectively, so he’s been reliant on landing finishes to score well when he only has three rounds to work with. Now he’s moving up a weight class for the first time at 35 years old and taking on a taller, longer opponent who’s only been finished once in his career, which was back in 2017. None of that is very encouraging for Figueiredo’s chances of finding the finish he needs to score well, but we did just see Font get dominated on the mat in his last fight. While Figueiredo isn’t a control-heavy wrestler, he will look for takedowns and at his cheaper price tag it’s possible he could serve as a value play in a decision win. However, don’t expect him to smother Font on the mat for three rounds and really score well in a decision and he’ll need a finish if he wants to assure himself a spot in winning lineups. Figueiredo will likely be popular based on his name alone, which lowers his tournament appeal some. He’s also only landed one knockout in his last 10 fights and has never submitted anybody beyond the first round. That could leave him as a R1 submission or bust play if those trends continue and it looks like being under the field is the move here. The odds imply Figueiredo has a 43% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Jalin Turner
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Coming off back-to-back split decision losses, Turner coincidentally just lost a close fight to Dan Hooker and will now be taking his spot on nine days’ notice after Hooker dropped out. The first two rounds of that last fight were really close, before Hooker took over in round three as Turner faded. Turner notably missed weight by 2 lb for the fight, which could have contributed to him fading down the stretch. That wasn’t the first time those two had been matched up, as Dan Hooker dropped out of their original date on March 4th, before Mateusz Gamrot filled in on a few weeks’ notice. Gamrot won a split decision over Turner, which was Turner’s first loss since 2019. Prior to that, Turner had finished five straight opponents, after starting off 1-2 in the UFC. The last two of those finishes came in a first round submission against Brad Riddell, who trains at City Kickboxing with Dan Hooker, and a second round TKO against a really tough Jamie Mullarkey, who has also spent some time at City Kickboxing. So their team prepared for Turner multiple times in a row. The only early loss of Turner’s UFC career was a R1 KO in his debut, which came in one of the tougher spots you could ask for, fighting up a weight class against a really tough Vicente Luque. Turner bounced back with a 53 second R1 KO against a questionable Callan Potter, before losing a wrestling-heavy decision to Matt Frevola in 2019.
Now 13-7 as a pro, Turner has only seen the third round five times in his career, losing all five of those fights. All 13 of his wins have come in the first two rounds, with nine KO/TKOs and four submissions. He’s been knocked out three times and lost all four of the decisions he’s been to. Ten of his 13 finishes occurred in the first round, with the other three ending in round two. While Turner has been knocked out three times, two of those came very early in his career before he joined the UFC. The other was against Vicente Luque in Turner’s 2018 UFC debut, which he took up a weight class when he was just 23 years old. That’s the only time Turner has competed up at 170 lb in his career, and he moved back down to 155 lb immediately after.
Overall, Turner is 6’3” with a 77” reach and gigantic for the 155 lb division. He’s dangerous anywhere fights can go, and in addition to being a powerful striker, he’s a BJJ brown belt who’s locked up submissions in three of his last four wins. However, we have seen him get outwrestled at times and also slow down in the third round of fights. With that said, he’s still only 28 years old and should be learning and improving every time he steps inside the Octagon. Between his 10 UFC fights and DWCS appearance, Turner landed 5 takedowns on 9 attempts (55.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just 10 of their 41 attempts (75.6% defense). After missing weight by 2 lb for his last fight and stepping in on short notice for this one, it will be important to monitor Turner closely on the scale.
Bobby Green
24th UFC Fight (12-9-1, NC)Green had been set to face Dan Hooker here, but Hooker dropped out due to an injury and Turner was announced as the replacement on November 23rd. The fight against Hooker had been scheduled to go five rounds, but it was switched to three rounds following the late opponent change.
Fresh off a quick 33 second first round knockout win over Grant Dawson in an October main event, Green has landed two straight finishes following a No Contest against Jared Gordon due to an “accidental” clash of heads. Prior to finishing Dawson, Green locked up a late third round submission win over a washed up Tony Ferguson, which is Green’s only submission win since 2013. Leading up to the No Contest against Gordon, Green suffered back-to-back KO/TKO losses to Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev. Green was setting a crazy pace against Dober before he got caught, as he outlanded Dober 73-34 in significant strikes in just a round and a half. Prior to the pair of early losses, Green had been extremely durable and hadn’t been finished since 2016 when Dustin Poirier knocked him out in the first round. While Green has only made it to the judges in one of his last seven fights, he fought to 10 straight decisions before that (4-5-1). In the last decision Green fought to, he landed a career best 188 significant strikes against Nasrat Haqparast. That came just after Green knocked out a washed up Al Iaquinta in the first round, following back-to-back decision losses to Rafael Fiziev and Thiago Moises.
Now 31-14-1 as a pro, Green has 11 wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and 11 decision victories. He has four KO/TKO losses, two submission defeats, and eight decision losses. Both of Green’s submission losses occurred all the way back in 2009 and he only has one submission win since 2013, so his fights generally either go the distance or end in a knockout.
Overall, Green is a high-volume striker (6.15 SSL/min) who likes to put on a show and really feeds off the crowd and tends to shine in the spotlight. Three of his last four wins were on PPV cards, while he went just 1-3 plus a No Contest in his last five fights at the Apex without a real crowd. His hands-by-his-side fighting style provides a unique look for opponents to deal with and makes it tough to see Green’s punches coming and also easier for him to defend takedowns. With a high school wrestling background, Green is a capable grappler with a solid 74% takedown defense, but hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last eight fights and is generally looking to keep fights standing. Over that same stretch the only opponent to get him down was Islam Makhachev, who landed one of his two attempts. Green hasn’t fought anyone over six feet tall since 2013 when he knocked out the 6’2” James Krause, so it will be interesting to see how he deals with the size and length of Jalin Turner in this next match.
Fight Prediction:
Turner will have a 5” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, in addition to being nine years younger than the 37-year-old Green.
A major factor in this matchup will be how the weight cut goes for Turner. He cuts a ton of weight to get down to 155 lb and even with a full camp he missed weight by 2 lb for his last fight. Now he has to hit the mark on a week and a half’s notice and even if he does make weight, it could take a lot out of him. We saw him slow down a ton in the third round of his last fight and he’s still never won a fight that made it past the second round in his career. That seemingly leaves him reliant on landing a finish in the opening 10 minutes and Green has historically been pretty durable. Green has a slightly higher output than Turner (6.15 SSL/min vs. 5.82 SSL/min) and gets hit less often (3.66 SSA/min vs. 4.61 SSA/min). Green also has the cardio advantage and had a full camp to prepare. Turner has gone 0-4 in the four decisions he’s been to and also got knocked out in the third round back in 2017, in his only other fight to make it past the second round. If you look at the prop odds on DraftKings and remove the rake, Turner has just a 33% chance of finishing Green in the first two rounds, yet Green is a sizable underdog in the fight. Based on that it’s hard not to like the Green side of things and the public agrees as action has been coming in on Green since the line opened. It won’t be shocking to see Turner finish Green, as he’s extremely dangerous, but we like Green’s chances of outlasting Turner and either finishing him late or outlanding his way to a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Green’s ML” at +187.
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DFS Implications:
Turner has been a DFS gold mine when he wins, averaging 116 DraftKings points in his six UFC victories, with at least 106 points in all of those and topping 125 twice. All 13 of his career wins have come in the first two rounds and he’s 0-5 in fights that lasted longer than 10 minutes. In his three UFC decisions losses, he only scored 48, 31 and 22 points on DraftKings, giving us no indication that he can score well in a decision if he ever wins one. He’s habitually highly owned in DFS, with his DraftKings ownership coming in at 36%, 36%, 46%, and 34% in his last four fights. However, he has now lost two straight fights, is stepping in on short notice, has seen the line move against him, and is highly priced. So it’s possible we see his ownership take a slight dip, but we typically see fighters in the co-main event pretty highly owned. The only fighters to finish Bobby Green since 2016 were Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev, and it’s not a great spot for Turner to find a finish, but Green’s far from invincible and is now 37 years old. However, there are legitimate concerns with Turner having to make weight on short notice, as he’s massive and cuts a ton to make it down to 155 lb. That has the potential to compromise both his cardio and his chin, leaving him as a volatile DFS play with a high ceiling but an uncertain floor. Green should be looking to push the pace, which will be beneficial for DFS production for whoever wins. The odds imply Turner has a 66% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Green had been booked to face Dan Hooker in a five-round fight here as a +145 dog when DraftKings released pricing. However, Hooker then dropped out and the fight was switched to three rounds when Turner was announced as the replacement after Green’s DraftKings salary was already locked in. Green opened around a +200 underdog against Turner, leaving him overpriced relative to the odds, although the line has been moving in his favor. However, unless it gets all the way back to +145, he’ll still technically be overpriced. With that said, he’s averaged 98 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins, scoring 98 or more in each of his last six victories, so relative to his scoring potential he doesn’t feel so overpriced at just $7,600 on DraftKings. He just landed a 33 second first round knockout in a main event as a massive +350 underdog, which will be fresh on everyone’s mind and drive his ownership up. There are definitely some trap vibes going on with getting Green as an underdog once again, and this spot seems almost too good to be true with Turner stepping in on short notice. However, if Green does win, he’ll have a really good shot at scoring well and ending up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Green has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Arman Tsarukyan
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Tsarukyan is six months removed from a third round ground and pound TKO win over Joaquim Silva. Tsarukyan came into that fight as a prohibitive -1100 favorite and was in control for most of the match, but did get rocked badly by Silva in the second round. Had Tsarukyan not been able to land a desperation takedown to buy time to recover, there’s a chance he could have been knocked out. Prior to that, Tsarukyan won an impressive 30-27 unanimous decision over Damir Ismagulov, who had won 19 straight fights coming in. Ismagulov also entered that matchup with an elite 90% takedown defense and it didn’t even matter as Tsarukyan took him down seven times and controlled him for nine and a half minutes. Leading up to those two wins, Tsarukyan lost a close five-round decision to Mateusz Gamrot after winning five straight fights following a decision loss to Islam Makhachev in Tsarukyan’s 2019 short notice UFC debut. While six of Tsarukyan’s nine UFC fights went the distance, three of his last four wins ended in TKOs.
Now 20-3 as a pro, Tsarukyan has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and seven decisions. The only time he’s been finished came in a 30 second R1 KO in his second pro fight back in 2015 when he was just 19 years old, with his other two losses going the distance against world-class wrestlers in Mateusz Gamrot and Islam Makhachev. Thirteen of his last 14 fights have seen the second round, with 12 making it to round three, and nine going the distance. His last five finishes all came via KO/TKO, with one in round one, another in round two, and three in round three. He hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017, two years prior to joining the UFC.
This will only be the second five-round fight of Tsarukyan’s career. The first was in June 2022 against Mateusz Gamrot, who defeated Tsarukyan in a unanimous 48-47 decision. All three judges scored the first two rounds for Tsarukyan in that fight, but the last three for Gamrot. So Tsarukyan has yet to win a championship round in his career.
Overall, Tsarukyan is a really high-level wrestler and also a dangerous striker. He excels at taking opponents down, controlling them on the mat, and beating them up with ground and pound. In his nine UFC fights, he landed 28 takedowns on 77 attempts (36.4%), while his opponents got him down 10 times on 40 attempts (75% defense). Four of those takedowns surrendered were against Islam Makhachev in Tsarukyan’s UFC debut, while the other six came against Mateusz Gamrot in Tsarukyan’s one other UFC loss. He’s yet to win a fight where he was taken down (0-2), but is 6-0 in the UFC when he’s finished ahead in takedowns. Only once in his UFC career have there been no takedowns landed, which was in his 2021 first round knockout of Christos Giagos. Tsarukyan only averages 3.82 SSL/min and 1.91 SSA/min and we’ve yet to see him involved in any high volume striking battles. He’s a smart fighter who generally avoids putting himself in unnecessarily dangerous situations and he’ll be competing for a title before long. He’s still just 27 years old and trains at one of the best gyms in American Top Team, so he should be continuing to improve all the time.
Beneil Dariush
23rd UFC Fight (16-5-1)Dariush recently had an eight-fight winning streak snapped with a first round TKO loss to Charles Oliveira in a high-profile top contender fight. Prior to that, Dariush won three straight decisions against Diego Ferreira, Tony Ferguson, and Mateusz Gamrot, after finishing four straight opponents in 2019 and 2020. The last time Dariush got anyone out of there early was in 2020 when he knocked out a washed up Scott Holtzman, who finished his career with three straight losses. You have to go all the way back to 2018 to find Dariush’s second most recent loss, when he got knocked out in just 42 seconds by a debuting Alexander Hernandez. Dariush also got knocked out in the second round by Edson Barboza a year before that, and submitted in the second round by Michael Chiesa back in 2016, in addition to getting knocked out in round one by Ramsey Nijem back in 2014, which is an especially bad look considering Nijem went just 1-5 in his career following that win. So Dariush has been kind of chinny and prone to getting finished throughout his career, but has shown exceptional defensive wrestling and grappling, which was most evident in his decision win over Gamrot.
Now 22-5-1 as a pro, Dariush has five wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and nine decision victories. All of his knockout wins came in six minutes or less, with three in round one and two in the first 60 seconds of round two. All eight of his submission victories also ended in the first two rounds, with five in round one and three in round two. He’s also been knocked out four times himself, with three of those ending in round one and the other in round two. His one other defeat ended in a second round submission and all 18 of his fights that ended early were stopped in the first two rounds (13-5). He’s never lost a match that lasted longer than 10 minutes and he’s 9-0-1 in the 10 decisions he’s been to.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Dariush’s career, so he’s never been in a match that lasted longer than 15 minutes and his championship round cardio remains somewhat of a mystery.
Overall, Dariush is a well rounded fighter who holds black belts in both BJJ and Muay Thai. He’s generally looking to exert his will on opponents, whether it be on the mat or the feet, and isn’t one to run from a firefight. His aggressive fighting style has also gotten him into trouble at times, with all of his losses ending early. In his last 10 fights, he landed 17 of his 41 takedown attempts (41.5% accuracy), while his opponents were only able to take him down on 4 of their 24 attempts (83.3% defense). The only fighter to get Dariush down since 2017 was Gamrot, who only landed 4 of his 19 attempts. No one else has ever gotten Dariush down more than once in a UFC match. Dariush has never been a high-volume striker, and he only averages 3.79 SSL/min and 2.63 SSA/min. He’s never landed more than 81 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 84. Dariush is very willing to strike with strikers and grapple against grapplers and he likes to test his skills against the strengths of his opponents. Dariush’s one weakness has been his durability and his chin has failed him at multiple points in his career.
Fight Prediction:
Dariush will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach. Tsarukyan is seven years younger than the 34-year-old Dariush.
This is an exciting matchup between two of the top Lightweights in the world. We typically see Tsarukyan exert his will on his opponents through his wrestling, but Dariush has some of the best defensive wrestling/grappling in the division. Tsarukyan is also really tough to take down, so there’s a good chance this turns into more of a striking battle. They each have the power to knock the other out, but Tsarukyan has only been finished once in his career, while Dariush has been finished five times. So we have to give the durability edge to Tsarukyan, although we did see him get badly wobbled on the feet in his last match and he’s far from invincible. Tsarukyan has only been in one five-round fight, while this will be the first for Dariush, so neither of them has much if any experience when it comes to the championship rounds. That leaves some uncertainty if this fight runs long, but there’s a good chance it doesn’t make it that far. We expect someone to get knocked out in the first three rounds and give the advantage to Tsarukyan to come out victorious.
Our favorite bet here is “Tsarukyan/Dariush Under 3.5 Rounds” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Tsarukyan has averaged 106 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, scoring 99 or more in each of the last five of those, and 110 or more in four of them. He’s shown massive upside through his relentless wrestling attack, although he will face the incredibly tough 80% takedown defense of Dariush here, making this a less favorable matchup. Dariush has 22 UFC fights under his belt and only once was he taken down more than a single time, which was in a decision win over Gamrot. Tsarukyan has shown the ability to overcome bad matchups in the past, like when he scored 99 points in a three-round decision win over Damir Ismagulov, who came into that fight with a 90% takedown defense. However, we also saw Tsarukyan struggle to take down Gamrot, landing just one of his eight attempts in a five-round decision loss. That’s the only five round fight of Tsarukyan’s career, and even if the decision had gone his way, he still only would have scored 89 DraftKings points. That shows one way that Tsarukyan could win here and still fail to return value at his high price tag. Another way would be in a mid round knockout if he isn’t able to get his wrestling going, as neither one of these two land or absorb a ton of striking volume. While Dariush has been prone to getting knocked out, only one of Tsarukyan’s last 14 fights ended in the first round, so it’s hard to count on him landing a finish in the opening five minutes. That likely leaves Tsarukyan reliant on finding wrestling success to return value, which is far more uncertain than normal in this tough matchup. The odds imply Tsarukyan has a 72% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Dariush has averaged 93 DraftKings points in his 16 UFC wins, although scored just 66 points in his last decision win, when he faced an opponent in Mateusz Gamrot who was constantly looking to take him down. Dariush was forced to play defense for most of that match, and despite landing a knockdown in the fight he still scored terribly. Even if you extend his numbers in that fight over five-rounds, he still only would have scored 90 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel. He’s facing another wrestler here, which is concerning for Dariush’s scoring potential. The times Dariush has scored well are when he can either land a finish or dominate opponents on the mat, and Tsarukyan has a really solid 75% takedown defense and has only been finished once in his career, which was all the way back in 2015 in his second pro fight. That makes this a really tough matchup for Dariush to win or score well if he does. However, at his cheap price tag, he still has the potential to serve as a value play even if he doesn’t put up a huge score, leaving him with a wider range of acceptable outcomes. And we did see Tsarukyan get rocked on the feet in his last fight, so Dariush will have a puncher’s chance of getting him out of there. The odds imply Dariush has a 28% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Sean Brady OVER 1.5 TDs
