The Sheet

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Fight Day Scratches: None

Fighter Notes:

Fight #13

Darian Weeks

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still in search of his first UFC win, Weeks is coming off a pair of decision losses in a couple of tough spots. He made his short notice UFC debut in 2021 against longtime veteran Bryan Barberena, and narrowly lost a decision. He then took on a young touted prospect in Ian Garry and again lost on the score cards. While his fight against Barberena played out as a high-volume scrap, his matchup against Garry was much slower paced.

In his last fight, Weeks was able to control the center of the Octagon while Garry circled the outside and meticulously led the striking exchanges. It was overall an uneventful fight, with Garry finishing ahead 74-40 in significant strikes and 80-60 in total strikes. Weeks was able to land one takedown on three attempts and finished with nearly three minutes of control time, while Garry never looked to get the fight to the ground.

Now 5-2 as a pro, Weeks has four wins by KO and one by submission. Both of his losses have gone the distance, and he’s never won a decision in his short career. Four of his five wins ended in round two, with the other ending in round one.

Overall, Weeks is a decently well rounded fighter who will look to mix in takedowns with his striking, but still looks pretty green overall and he only turned pro in 2019. His last fight before joining the UFC was in the LFA, but his four prior matches all took place in smaller Missouri promotions. So overall he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and he appears to be learning on the job in the UFC. He has some boxing and wrestling experience, but is just a BJJ blue belt and doesn’t look like much of a submission threat.

Yohan Lainesse

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from his first career loss in a R2 TKO loss in his UFC debut, Lainesse nearly found a second round finish of his own but couldn’t quite close the show and then faded in the back half of round two. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a 97 second R1 KO win on DWCS just before that, and his last three fights have all ended in TKOs in the first two rounds.

In his last fight, Lainesse started strong, doubling Gabe Green up in significant strikes in the first round while also landing a takedown. That was enough to win the first round on all three scorecards, and then Lainesse violently dropped Green a minute into round two and the fight looked like it might be over as Green dropped to the canvas like a sack of potatoes. Somehow Green was able to survive and outlast Lainesse before finishing him along the fence late in round two. The fight ended with Green ahead 48-41 in significant strikes and 54-42 in total strikes. Lainesse landed two takedowns on four attempts, while Green never attempted a takedown.

Now 8-1 as a pro, Lainesse has six wins by KO and two decisions, to go along with his lone TKO loss. His last two and four of his last five wins have come by knockout, with all six of his career KO wins coming in a round and a half or less, including five in round one. While Lainesse doesn’t have any submission wins on his record, he will look to lock up guillotine chokes. Most of his career has been spent at 170 lb, but he has competed at 185 lb once and another time at a 180 lb Catchweight.

Overall, Lainesse is an aggressive brawler who will mix in occasional takedowns and has a 7-8 minute gas tank. He’s constantly looking to land fight-ending haymakers with little regard for pacing himself. It will be interesting to see if his approach changes any following the first loss of his career, but that remains to be seen.

Fight Prediction:

Lainesse will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.

Both of these two are still in search of their first UFC win but share a history of landing finishes in earlier career victories. Lainesse is the more aggressive and the more explosive of the two, while Weeks will have the cardio advantage. Therefore, this seems pretty straightforward—either Lainesse will land a finish in the first round and a half, or Weeks will survive and take over late in round two as Lainesse predictably fades. While Weeks has never been finished, he also only has seven pro fights on his record so we’re not prepared to say he’s indestructible just yet. Lainesse should test his chin here and while this could go either way, we’ll say Lainesse finishes Weeks in the opening eight minutes. However, if Weeks can survive, look for him to land a finish of his own in the back half of the fight.

Our favorite bet here is “Yohan Lainesse R1 or R2 KO” at +340.

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DFS Implications:

Weeks scored 75 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his short notice UFC debut against Bryan Barberena, showing the potential to score well even when he doesn't land a finish. Now he’ll face an aggressive brawler with bad cardio, so this sets up as an uptempo fight with an increased chance to land a late finish if Weeks can survive long enough to outlast Lainesse. Weeks has landed 5 takedowns on 11 attempts in his two UFC fights, while also averaging 5.27 SSL/min. He has the ability to fill up a stat sheet when he has an opponent who’s willing to throw down, which is certainly the case in this matchup. At his cheap price tag, there’s a good chance Weeks returns value in a win of any kind, but his floor is shaky as he faces a dangerous finisher. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Lainesse is a very aggressive brawler who looks to end fights with every punch he throws. He’s coming off his first career loss, so it will be interesting to see if that alters his fighting style or shakes his confidence. If it doesn’t, that means he’ll continue to sell out for early finishes and gas out when he’s unsuccessful. That leaves him with a huge ceiling but a dubious floor, which is perfectly fine in tournaments. While Weeks has never been finished in his short pro career, he has averaged 6.07 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate). So if Lainesse can pull off the upset, he has the potential to put up a decent striking total on his way to a finish, resulting in a massive score. He’ll also mix in takedowns and try to lock up guillotines, so overall he has the ability to fill up the stat sheet. Just keep in mind, he has about a 7-8 minute gas tank so you’re really playing him for his ability to land a finish in the first round and a half of fights. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #12

Melissa Martinez

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making her UFC debut, the undefeated prospect in Martinez hasn’t competed in MMA since December 2019, but has been finding success in kickboxing during that time where she won a gold medal at the 2021 World Association of Kickboxing Organizations World Championship. She won another gold medal at the 2016 Pan American Kickboxing Championship and a silver medal in 2017. She’s also won numerous national kickboxing titles in Mexico. She comes from a family of fighters and began kickboxing at a very early age. Her brother is also an MMA fighter and the Combate Global Bantamweight champion. Martinez had originally been scheduled to face Hannah Cifers here, but she withdrew and Reed stepped in with about 10 weeks to prepare.

In her last fight, Martinez got controlled along the fence, taken down, and controlled along the fence some more for the first three and a half minutes. Martinez got absolutely dominated on the mat in the second round, in what could arguably have been scored a 10-8 round for her opponent. In round three, Martinez went for a guillotine as her opponent looked to take her down and while she wasn’t able to complete the submission, she was able to use it to reverse the position and take control of the round. While that may have been enough to win her the round, you’re left scratching your head as to how she won the fight after appearing to lose the first round and then getting dominated in round two. It ended in a split decision, but for our money Martinez easily lost the fight. Maybe she thought so too which is why she went back to kickboxing for the last two and a half years.

Now 5-2 as a pro, Martinez has five wins by KO/TKO and two decisions. All five of her early wins have come in the first two rounds, with three in round one and two in round two. She hasn’t faced much in terms of competition, with two of her wins coming against opponents with zero pro wins and four more against opponents who entered with 3-2 records.

Overall, Martinez is a one-dimensional kickboxer who opted to return to kickboxing opposed to work on her grappling following a questionable split-decision win where she got controlled for most of the fight in her last match. With that said, it’s been over two and a half years since she last fought in MMA, and at 25 years old it’s certainly possible she’s made improvements to her grappling. In the end, it doesn’t really matter for her debut, as she’ll face off against another one-dimensional striker. Martinez does have decent striking, but as soon as she faces anyone that can grapple she’ll be in trouble.

Elise Reed

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Likely fighting for her job, Reed will be looking to bounce back from a R3 TKO loss to Sam Hughes and is one judges score card away from being 0-3 in the UFC. Her lone UFC win came in a split decision over Cory McKenna, after Reed got finished with ground and pound in the first round of her short notice debut against Sijara Eubanks up at 125 lb.

In her last fight, Reed was not given the luxury of fighting out in space, as Sam Hughes pressed her up against the cage, took her down, and made the fight ugly on the mat. The longer the fight went, the easier the takedowns came, as Hughes only landed one of her four attempts in the first round, but all three of her attempts in the late rounds. Reed was essentially shut out in the later rounds, landing one combined significant strike in those rounds. Hughes was eventually able to force the stoppage late in round three as she battered Reed on the mat. The fight ended with Hughes ahead 43-17 in significant strikes and 130-70 in total strikes, while landing four of her seven takedown attempts with 11:59 in control time.

Now 5-2 as a pro, Reed has two wins by TKO and three by decision. She’s been finished with ground and pound in both of her losses. Reed actually made her 2019 pro debut at Atomweight (105 lb), before moving up to 115 lb in 2020.

With a Taekwondo background, Reed is a pure striker who relies more on volume than power. She has good movement and quickness, but doesn’t add anything in the grappling department. To her credit, she’s at least active off her back, as she’s constantly throwing strikes and trying to reverse the position, however, she’s not a threat to land submissions.

Fight Prediction:

Reed will have a 1” height advantage, while Martinez will have a 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as a pure kickboxing battle, between two one-dimensional strikers. Both of them have struggled with being controlled on the mat, but that’s less likely to be a factor here as neither of them has shown anything in terms of offensive grappling either. With Martinez taking two and a half years away from MMA and now making her UFC debut against an opponent fighting for her job, this is a higher variance spot as it’s tougher to know how Martinez will look and how desperate Reed will fight. They’re both decent strikers with multiple KO/TKOs on their record, but we like this to go the distance and end in a close, high-volume decision. We’ll give the slight advantage to the more active fighter with UFC experience, but this one could certainly go either way.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +380.

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DFS Implications:

Martinez is a one-dimensional kickboxer who hasn’t competed in MMA since December 2019, which adds additional uncertainty as she prepares to make her UFC debut. She’s still just 25 years old and should be consistently improving, but she’s been competing in kickboxing and going to school, so her focus has not been entirely on rounding out her MMA game. It’s still possible she’s made improvements to her grappling, and Reed is completely helpless on the mat, so the potential for some surprise grappling from Martinez is at least somewhat in play. With that said, we’re not expecting her to grapple any and we like this fight to play out as a pure striking battle, which will make it tougher for her to return value with a knockout. Reed has two TKO losses on her record, but they both came through ground and pound on the mat and we’ve yet to see her get finished on the feet. The oddsmakers are expecting this to go the distance, as are we, and while both ladies have somewhat of a decent floor through striking alone, it’s hard to see much of a ceiling if this makes it to the judges. The odds imply Martinez has a 59% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Reed is a one dimensional striker with a Taekwondo background who doesn’t have a ton of power and offers nothing in terms of grappling. That makes it tough for her to score well and in her lone UFC win she scored just 70 points in a decision. In fairness to her, all three of her UFC opponents have been looking to grapple, and this will be her first matchup against another pure striker. Therefore, it would make sense for her to set a new high in significant strikes landed, and if she can pull off the upset it’s possible she can serve as a value play even in a decision win, all depending on what the other dogs on the slate do. Just keep in mind, Martinez is still undefeated and is also a decent striker as well and this fight could go either way. Reed should have maximum motivation to get the win as she’s likely fighting for her job after starting 1-2 in the UFC. The odds imply Reed has a 41% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Heili Alatengheili

6th UFC Fight (3-1-1)

Coming off his first early win in the UFC, Alatengheili knocked out Kevin Croom in just 47 seconds after fighting to four straight decisions in his first four UFC fights. Just prior to that, he fought to a draw against Gustavo Lopez after losing a decision to Casey Kenney and hadn’t won a fight since 2019 when he won a split-decision over Ryan Benoit. Alatengheili won the first two rounds on all three judges’ score cards against Lopez, but Lopez finally turned it on in round three and Alatengheili was deducted a point for multiple blatant fence grabs resulting in the draw.

His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, but Alatengheili’s striking looked crisp and Croom’s chin looked terrible. As soon as Alatengheili landed something clean, Croom was badly wobbled. Alatengheili quickly pounced on him and forced a stoppage just 47 seconds into the first round. The fight ended with Alatengheili ahead 9-2 in striking.

Now 15-8-2 as a pro, Alatengheili has five KOs, three submissions, and seven decision wins. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has four decision defeats. Two of his KO losses came early on in his career back in 2014, in his 4th and 6th fights, with his only other KO loss occurring in 2017. His lone submission loss came in a first round armbar in 2015. Since a 2015 submission win, all 14 of his fights have ended in either KOs (4-1) or decisions (6-1-2).

Despite his wrestling background, Heili seems perfectly content with keeping things on the feet, especially early on in fights. He’s not a high-volume striker by any means (2.86 SSL/min) and typically throws one, sometimes two punches at a time. He does have decent power, but he’s far from an elite striker and has a poor striking defense. After going 7 for 20 on takedowns in his first two UFC matches, Heili failed to land his only attempt in his last three fights, which is a little surprising considering his wrestling background.

Chad Anheliger

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Entering this matchup on a 10 fight winning streak, Anheliger landed a third round KO in his recent UFC debut. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a split-decision upset win on DWCS in September 2021, after becoming the first fighter to ever finish TUF finalist Brady Hiestand, which he accomplished with an early round three TKO. Anheliger started off his pro career back in 2010 and went just 2-5 in his first seven fights, with all five losses ending in submissions. Following the string of submission losses, Anheliger switched camps and took nearly two years off to improve his grappling, before returning to competing and winning nine straight fights leading up to the win in his UFC debut, including titles as both Flyweight and Bantamweight with the Rise Fighting Championship organization.

In his last fight, Anheliger got taken down three times in the first round and tried to defend takedowns with guillotine attempts, which is how he finished all three of his career submission wins. The underdog, Jesse Strader, won the first round on all three scorecards as he led in striking on top of the three takedowns. Anheliger dropped Strader a minute in round two, but Strader was able to recover off his back as Anheliger laid on him. After returning to his feet, Strade finished round two ahead in significant strikes as well. Anheliger pulled ahead in striking in round three and dropped Strader with a big left hand with a minute and a half to go in the fight. He quickly jumped on top and finished him with ground and pound to get his third R3 TKO win in his last four fights. Had the fight gone the distance, Anheliger looked to be on his way to winning a split decision in a close fight, as one of the judges had given both of the first two rounds to Strader, while the other two had it split going into the third round. Anheliger finished ahead 67-64 in significant strikes and 92-73 in total strikes, while Strader took him down four times on seven attempts. Anheliger failed to land his only takedown attempt, but did have two official submission attempts. After the fight, Anheliger said he had a really tough camp going into the matchup as he dealt with a knee injury and was also sick leading up to the fight.

Now 12-5 as a pro, Anheliger has seven wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. All five of his losses have ended in submissions in his first seven pro fights from 2010 to 2014. His last four and five of his last six fights have made it to the third round, but 10 of his 12 career wins have come early.

Overall, Anheliger is a striker who’s biggest weakness is his defensive grappling/wrestling. While his takedown defense has improved since earlier in his career, he’s still been taken down 9 times on 19 attempts in his last two fights (52.6% defense). He trains out of the same gym as Hakeem Dawodu in Canada, who he’ll share this card with. Anheliger spends so much time defending takedowns that it’s hard for him to put up big striking numbers and he’s averaged just 3.99 SSL/min in his last two fights. He also failed to land any of his own three takedown attempts in those fights.

Fight Prediction:

Anheliger will have a 1” height advantage, but Alatengheili will have a 2” reach advantage and is five years younger than the 35-year-old Anheliger.

Neither one of these two throws a ton of volume on the feet, meaning if this stays entirely on the feet it will likely be close in terms of the numbers. However, Alatengheili has a massive wrestling advantage, should he choose to use it. He’s been reluctant to shoot for takedowns in his last three fights, but it’s hard to think he won’t be looking to return to his wrestling here. Anheliger likes to defend takedowns with guillotine attempts, so Alatengheili will need to be mindful of his head position on takedowns. As long as Alatengheili fights smart, he should be able to grind out a decision win on the mat.

Our favorite bet here is “Alatengheili DEC” at +180.

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DFS Implications:

Alatengheili is coming off a scoring explosion in a 47 second R1 KO where he scored 129 DraftKings points. Prior to that, he had failed to top 80 DraftKings points in his first four UFC fights, which all went the distance. While he has decent wrestling and landed 7 takedowns on 20 attempts in his first two UFC matches, he failed to land his only attempt in his last three fights. It would defy logic for him not to try and wrestle here against a one-dimensional striker in Anheliger, but fighters make stupid decisions all the time. Even in his wrestling-heavy decision wins earlier in his career, he still scored just 80 and 70 DraftKings points and hasn’t been very active on the mat. Maybe that will change and at his reasonable price tag he wouldn’t have to put up a slate-breaking score to end up in tournament winning lineups, but he’s more of a speculative DraftKings specific play who’s coming off a big performance that will likely bump up his ownership a little. He’s reliant on a finish to score well on FanDuel, and either needs a career wrestling performance or a finish on DraftKings to return value. While Anheliger was extremely prone to getting submitted earlier in his career, he’s improved that aspect of his game and Alatengheili hasn’t submitted anybody since 2015. We like Alatengheili to win a decision here and it will most likely resemble the wrestling-heavy decisions he won earlier in his UFC career. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Anheliger scored 99 DraftKings points in his recent R3 TKO win, but that was bolstered by two knockdowns or it would have failed to make a meaningful mark. Everyone is always looking to take him down, which makes it tough for him to put up big striking numbers. His last four fights have all made it to the third round, although he did land knockouts in three of those. While Alatengheili has been knocked out three times in his career, those were all earlier in his career and he’s looked pretty durable lately. Even at his cheaper price tag Anheliger appears reliant on landing a finish here to score well and we don’t see him notching a big total in a decision win. This will be his second UFC fight and he claimed he had a rough training camp going into his debut so maybe he’ll look better this time around, but at 35 years old it’s hard to get too excited about him as he faces another opponent who should be looking to take him down. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Norma Dumont

6th UFC Fight (3-2)

Looking to bounce back from a split-decision loss to Macy Chiasson, Dumont has fought to four straight decisions since getting knocked out by Megan Anderson in the first round of her February 2020 UFC debut. Following the loss at 145 lb, Dumont attempted to drop down to 135 lb but never even came close to hitting the mark, weighing in at 139.5 for her one fight to actually happen at 135 lb and having another fight canceled because she missed weight so badly. After missing weight by 3.5 lb, she won her lone 135 lb fight against a potentially injured and unquestionably terrible Ashlee Evans-Smith. After missing weight two straight times at 135 lb, Dumont moved back up to 145 lb and won a split decision over Felicia Spencer in 2021. She then had been set to face Holly Holm in a five-round main event, but Holm dropped out and Aspen Ladd, who normally fights at 135 lb stepped in on short notice. Dumont won a five-round staring contest, leading up to a three-round split-decision loss in her last fight. Dumont notably missed weight by a half pound in her recent 145 lb loss, so regardless of weight class she’s always at risk of missing the mark and never short on excuses why.

In her last fight, we once again saw a slow start, with Chiasson taking an early lead in significant strikes, while also tacking on a takedown in the first round. Chiasson did a good job of controlling the range in round two and then clinched Dumont up and took her down midway through the round. Dumont was briefly able to reverse the position, but Chiasson immediately worked her way back to her feet and resumed pushing Dumont up against the cage. Chiasson continued to grind on Dumont and look for takedowns as she made the fight ugly and Dumont had absolutely no answer for anything she was doing. Dumont landed a couple of big punches early in round three, but Chiasson immediately took her down in response. Dumont did a decent job of returning to her feet when she got taken down, but Chiasson never let her go and continued to push her up against the cage and work on returning her to the mat. The fight ended with Dumont ahead in significant strikes 38-32, but Chiasson leading in total strikes 131-96. Chiasson also landed 6 of her 12 takedown attempts and finished ahead in control time 7:34-0:26. Dumont did not attempt a takedown in the fight. While two of the judges rightfully scored it 30-27 in favor of Chiasson, judge Junichiro Kamijo insanely ruled it 29-28 in favor of Dumont as the fight ended in a split decision.

Now 7-2 as a pro, Dumont has two career R1 submission wins and five by decision. She’s been knocked out once and has one decision loss. Her two submission wins came in her first three pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 0-2 and Dumont has never finished an opponent who has actually won a pro fight.

Dumont is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in Sanda, which is a form of Chinese kickboxing, so she’s somewhat well rounded. She’s never knocked anybody out and hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat at the UFC level. She seems completely clueless, and is content with grinding out boring decisions and then calling for title shots. She’s a decent striker, but not very aggressive. She’s landed five takedowns on 11 attempts in her four UFC fights, but has only attempted one in her last eight rounds of action. She also only averages 3.67 SSL/min, and the only time she topped 68 significant strikes landed in a fight was when she competed at 135 lb. The only thing lower than her striking total is her IQ and we wouldn’t be surprised to discover that Dumont is Portuguese for Dumbass.

Danyelle Wolf

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Wolf had been booked to make her UFC debut against Felicia Spencer in May 2021 but withdrew due to an injury and was forced to sit on the sidelines for 14 months before finally getting a chance to make her debut here. A former boxer, Wolf only has one MMA fight on her record, which was a close decision win on DWCS in September 2020, almost exactly two years ago. That win came against an opponent who only had three pro fights to her name, so Wolf has yet to face anyone with much MMA experience.

In her DWCS fight, Wolf patiently looked to pick her spots as she relied almost entirely on her boxing to grind out a decision. While she was able to defend all seven of the takedowns against her, she wasn’t facing much of a grappler. Wolf failed to land her only takedown attempt in the fight and actually finished behind in significant strikes 85-51 and in total strikes 101-70, but did pull guard and look for a guillotine in the third round. Despite trailing in striking in all three rounds and finishing behind in control time 4:25-0:00, the judges all awarded Wolf a 29-28 decision win. Wolf landed a bad eye poke in the second round, but was not deducted a point for it.

Now 1-0 as a pro, Wolf’s only MMA fight ended in a questionable decision win. She did have a lengthy boxing career with Olympic boxing aspirations and is a former Golden Gloves champion. She just turned 39 years old on Thursday, so she’s getting a real late start in MMA.

Overall, Wolf is a good striker, but is so new to MMA that it’s weird she’s getting a shot in the UFC. Clearly they are just trying to build out the 145 lb women’s Featherweight division and will add anybody they can, plus the UFC loves giving tall unproven female fighters a chance (i.e. Macy Chiasson). Who knows what Wolf has been working on the last two years, but it’s rare to see fighters make large improvements in their late 30s.

Fight Prediction:

Wolf will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Dumont is eight years younger than the 39-year-old Wolf.

This sets up as a slower paced tactical striking battle, but if Dumont were smart she would be looking to get the fight to the ground. However, since she’s not, we don't have much confidence in her taking the path of least resistance here and things could be close on the feet. Wolf has so little MMA experience that it’s nearly impossible to know how she’ll fare in an MMA fight at the UFC level. She could get completely overwhelmed from strikes with the smaller gloves, or she could outbox her way to victory. That uncertainty makes it tougher to predict how this fight will play out, which has us more inclined to take a flyer on Wolf here when you factor in the odds. From a straight pick’em stand point, it’s still more likely that Dumont gets the win, most likely in a low-volume decision, but if anyone could blow it as a -400 favorite, it would be Dumont.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +425.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Dumont is a frustrating fighter to play in DFS as she can be content with sitting and staring at her opponent for 25 minutes, as we saw in her last win, despite the fact that she claims to be ready for a title shot. She’s completely clueless and entirely untrustworthy, but she was able to score 103 DraftKings points in a 2020 decision victory, which was her only UFC fight down at 135 lb, where she missed weight by 3.5 lb. Dumont has the experience and grappling advantage in this matchup, but she doesn’t really use either and this fight could be a lot closer than the odds suggest on the feet. With that said, while Wolf has a ton of boxing experience, she only has one MMA fight with the four ounce gloves, which was two years ago and is also 39 years old, making this a higher variance spot. While Dumont generally lacks the activity to score even remotely well in decisions, she is capable of doing so when she pushes the pace as she proved once in the past. Facing a one-dimensional striker presents the opportunity for a dominant grappling performance, but we’re more expecting to see a slow paced striking battle, so she has a wide range of potential outcomes. Her low projected ownership despite the odds being massively in her favor also keeps her in play for tournaments. The odds imply she has a 77% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Wolf is shrouded in uncertainty as she makes her UFC debut at 39 years old following a two year layoff with just one professional MMA fight under her belt. She’s huge at 5’11” and has crisp boxing, but doesn’t offer much else from what we’ve seen. With that said, it’s hard to know what improvements, if any, she’s made over the last two years since we last saw her. Dumont did get knocked out by Megan Anderson in her 2020 UFC debut, so it’s certainly not impossible that Wolf can catch her with something clean here and pull off the massive upset. We don’t see Wolf landing enough volume to really score well in a decision, and even at her cheap price tag, a decision win may not guarantee her a spot in winning tournament lineups. The odds imply she has a 23% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Jake Collier

12th UFC Fight (5-6)

Continuing to alternate wins and losses for his entire 11 fight UFC career, Collier will be once again looking to bounce back from a loss, with both of his last two losses ending in split decisions. The first of those was against Carlos Felipe, who’s bravado appeared to sway the judges in his favor, while the most recent was against Andrei Arlovski, who always has sway on the scorecards. In between those two narrow losses, Collier landed a first round submission against Chase Sherman, which is the only finish Collier has landed since moving up to Heavyweight in 2020. That’s also the only time Collier has submitted anybody since 2014. He also hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2016.

In his last fight, Collier took an early lead in striking and control time as he pushed Arlovski up against the fence. Arlovski narrowed the striking lead in round two, and striking was dead even in round three, but Collier landed a takedown in each of the later two rounds. In the end, Collier finished ahead in significant strikes 93-91, in total strikes 132-105, in takedowns 2-0, and in control time 3:28-0:01. He was also the one pushing forward more in the fight, but two of the three judges still thought Arlovski had done enough to win the fight.

Now 13-7 as a pro, Collier has five wins by KO, four by submission, and four decisions, He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has three decision defeats. Collier is now 2-3 since moving up to Heavyweight in 2020, after he made a brief stop at Light Heavyweight where he went 1-1 in 2017. Prior to that, Collier had spent his career down at 185 lb, where he went 2-2 in his first four UFC fights. While 13 of Collier’s 20 pro fights have ended early, five of his last seven have gone the distance since he moved up from 185 lb.

Overall, Collier’s best asset is his volume, but he has started looking for more takedowns lately. After failing to land a takedown on just one attempt in his first three fights up at Heavyweight, he’s landed three on four attempts in his last two matches. Three of his six UFC losses have come by knockout, although two of those were down at 185 lb and the other was against Tom Aspinall in Collier’s first fight at Heavyweight, which came following a nearly three year layoff. Collier has only finished 2 of his 11 UFC opponents and hasn’t looked especially dangerous overall, but if he continues to mix in more grappling he could end up being more of a finishing threat on the mat than the feet as so many lower level Heavyweights struggle on the ground.

Chris Barnett

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Likely fighting for his job here, Barnett is 1-2 in the UFC and coming off a lopsided technical decision loss. His only win in the UFC came in a highlight reel R2 TKO against an overweight and half retired Gian Villante. For the record, Barnett had lost the first round on all three judge’s scorecards prior to landing the finish. Prior to that, Barnett was submitted in the second round of his 2021 UFC debut against Ben Rothwell.

In his last fight, Barnett struggled with getting controlled and beaten up out of the clinch by the much taller Martin Buday. Barnett told his corner he broke his rib after the second round and sort of seemed to be looking for a way out. Then, Buday landed a knee to Barnett’s damaged ribs a minute into the third round and Barnett immediately went down. At that point, Buday landed an inadvertent but illegal elbow that was deemed to land to the back of the head of Barnett that forced the fight to be stopped and it went to the scorecards in a technical decision. The fight ended with Buday ahead in significant strikes 56-23 and in total strikes 131-44. No takedowns were attempted in the fight, but Buday led in control time 7:44-0:17.

Now 22-8 as a pro, Barnett has 17 wins by KO and five decisions. Sixteen of his seventeen KO wins were split across the first two rounds, with the other ending in round three. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has four decision defeats. Four of the nine decisions he’s been to have been split/majority (2-2), with him winning the last two split decisions he’s been to. A former Super Heavyweight, Barnett has fought as high as 340 lb despite being just 5’9”.

With a Taekwondo background, Barnett likes to mix in spinning attacks and throws a high number of kicks in general for such a big guy, as he’ll often mix a lead leg kick into his combinations. Unlike many Taekwondo fighters, Barnett will still mix in an occasional takedown, where he’ll try to drag his opponents down using his weight to hang on them while looking for trips. He’s not hunting for submissions on the ground, however, and is purely looking for ground and pound. His boxing is uninspiring, and he’s always at a size disadvantage at Heavyweight, which has been giving him real problems at the UFC level. Now he’ll face another opponent with a considerable height advantage.

Fight Prediction:

Collier will have a 6” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while he’s also three years younger than the 36-year-old Barnett.

It will be interesting to see how Barnett deals with his massive height deficiency in this matchup, but look for him to use kicks as his primary weapon. We saw Collier catch a kick from Chase Sherman and use it to land a takedown in his second most recent fight, which ultimately led to a submission win for Collier, which is his only finish since 2016. So Barnett will need to be careful not to be too predictable with his kicking, as he certainly doesn’t want to find himself on his back. Collier hasn’t looked like much of a threat to finish other Heavyweights on the feet, although Barnett also hasn’t looked especially durable. Neither one of these two have great cardio, and if this fight ends early it will likely happen in the first two rounds. With that said, Collier has been a decision machine and we like him to outland his way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +112.

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DFS Implications:

Collier lands a good amount of striking volume, averaging 5.67 SSL/min, and has begun mixing in more takedowns recently. However, he only has one early win since 2016, and has lacked the finishing upside that would really justify his expensive DFS price tag. Working in his favor, this is a favorable matchup against a much shorter, low-level opponent, and the oddsmakers recognized that as they installed Collier as a massive favorite. While Collier typically has a pretty solid volume-driven floor. He’s never scored more than 105 DraftKings points in 11 UFC fights, and will likely need a career performance to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 77% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.

Barnett is a KO or bust Heavyweight, even if he does occasionally land a takedown. He doesn’t land a ton of strikes, averaging just 3.60 SSL/min and primarily relies on his kicking game and his Taekwondo background. He’s struggled against tall opponents and will come into this fight at a 6” height disadvantage. Collier has only been knocked out once since 2015 and Barnett is unlikely to win a decision, leaving him with just a hail mary shot at landing a knockout to save his UFC career. Even if Barnett does somehow win a decision, it’s unlikely to really score well. The odds imply he has a 23% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Jamie Pickett

6th UFC Fight (2-3)

Looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss to Kyle Daukaus, Pickett notably took that fight on short notice and has now been finished in the first round in both of his last two losses. That loss came just five weeks after Pickett won a decision over UFC newcomer Joseph Holmes. After Holmes won the first round, Pickett was able to take the later two rounds to win a unanimous 29-28 decision as he landed two takedowns on four attempts. Large portions of the fight were spent with the two pushing each other up against the cage, similar to Pickett’s previous fight when he won a slow paced decision over Laureano Staropoli. Just prior to the pair of decision wins, Pickett suffered his first career KO loss, which came against a terrible, albeit occasionally dangerous, Jordan Wright.

In Pickett’s last fight, Daukaus took him down early in round one, and while Pickett was briefly able to work to his feet at two different points, Daukaus returned him to the ground both times. After controlling Pickett for almost the entire first round, Daukaus slowly locked in a Brabo Choke in the closing seconds and amazingly Pickett tapped with one second left on the clock. Pickett only stepped into that fight on 11 day’s notice, after Julian Marquez dropped out, so he had little time to prepare for the grappling of Daukaus, and specifically his patented Brabo Choke. The fight ended with Daukaus ahead 6-5 in significant strikes and 19-5 in total strikes, while landing three takedowns on six attempts with 4:12 in control time.

Now 13-7 as a pro, Pickett has eight wins by KO, one by “submission” and four decisions. His only submission wins came by punches in 2014. Pickett has been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has three decision losses. While eight of Pickett’s 13 pro wins have come by KO, he’s only landed one knockout in his last eight fights, which was on DWCS in 2020 against a suspect opponent. Pickett has not looked dangerous at the UFC level and has been content with grinding out decisions by pushing opponents up against the cage. Three of his last four wins have gone the distance.

Overall, Pickett has yet to do anything to impress us since joining the UFC and while he’s got decent athleticism, he is habitually tentative with his striking. He also hasn’t been impressive with his grappling despite being a BJJ brown belt. He only averages 2.89 SSL/min and has failed to top 50 significant strikes landed in any of his five UFC fights or his three trips on DWCS.

Denis Tiuliulin

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from a second round submission loss in his recent short notice UFC debut, Tiuliulin has now been submitted in two of his last three fights and three of his six career losses. Prior to making his UFC debut, he landed a first round KO win, after getting submitted in the third round of a 2020 fight in a smothering defeat against Combat Sambo World Champion Ikram Aliskerov, who entered the fight 9-1 (now 12-1) with his only loss coming against Khamzat Chimiev.

In his last fight, Tiuliulin entered as a massive +650 underdog against another UFC newcomer in Aliaskhab Khizriev. Tiuliulin landed some decent shots, but got taken down easily and controlled on the mat. While he was able to survive the first round, he got taken down again in round two and quickly choked unconscious. The fight ended with Khizriev ahead 42-31 in significant strikes and 54-43 in total strikes, with two takedowns on three attempts and 2:46 in control time.

Now 9-6 as a pro, Tiuliulin has eight wins by KO and one by decision. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has two decision losses. His last eight wins have come by knockout, with the last three ending in the first round. All eight of his knockouts have come in seven minutes or less, with six ending in the first round. He’s only been to three decisions in 15 pro fights, and one of those was a two round decision in his 2013 pro debut, which was the only time he’s won a fight that lasted longer than seven minutes. He’s 0-3 in fights that have seen the third round with two split-decision losses on top of his submission loss. Amazingly, Tiuliulin has competed anywhere from 155 to 205 lb in the past, but his last eight fights have all been at 185 lb.

Overall, Tiuliulin has a background in Thai boxing and doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. While he’s got decent power, he’s not super explosive with his striking and he gets taken down and controlled far too easily. Only two of nine career wins have come against opponents with winning records and most of his victories have come against questionable competition. When he did take a step up in competition level (prior to joining the UFC), he got absolutely dominated by Ikram Aliskerov.

Fight Prediction:

Pickett will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

This is a low-level fight between an early KO or bust boxer in Tiuliulin and a decision grinder in Pickett. Both guys have been prone to getting submitted, but neither has looked like much of a submission threat. Tiuliulin has struggled with being controlled and has bad cardio, while Pickett has done a decent job of controlling his opponents along the fence in both of his UFC wins. That seemingly sets this up for Pickett to control Tiuliulin along the fence while mixing in occasional takedowns. That will make it tougher for Tiuliulin to find the early knockout he needs to pull off the upset, but Pickett has notably been finished in the first round in both of his last two losses. However, he’s only been knocked out once in his career and that was sort of a flukey finish from downward elbows along the fence. We like Pickett to survive the early attacks of Tiuliulin and either find a finish in the later rounds or grind out another decision win depending on how hard Tiuliulin gasses. We’ll say Pickett wins a decision here.

Our favorite bet here is “Pickett R3 or DEC” at +170.

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DFS Implications:

Pickett scored exactly 66 DraftKings points in each of his two UFC wins, which both ended in decisions. He hasn’t looked like any sort of finisher at the UFC level and has been content with grinding out decisions wins along the cage. While he is a BJJ brown belt, he hasn’t looked like any type of submission threat, with zero submission attempts in his five UFC fights. So while Tiuliulin is pretty helpless on the mat and extremely prone to getting submitted, Pickett is an unlikely candidate to actually capitalize on that. That leaves Pickett reliant on landing a knockout to score well and Tiuliulin has only been knocked out once in his career. The one reason for optimism in Pickett is that Tiuliulin has shown questionable cardio at times in the past, so if he completely gasses out then it could open the door for a teed up finish. However, Pickett doesn’t normally push that high of a pace, which lowers the chances we see Tiuliulin fall apart late. While Pickett’s style of clinch fighting will generally score better on DraftKings than FanDuel, he likely needs a finish to be useful on either site unless he puts on a dominant grappling performance. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Tiuliulin is a KO or bust boxer who offers nothing in terms of grappling but has landed knockouts in eight of his nine career wins, with six of those ending in round one and another in round two. Working against him, Pickett has only been knocked out once in his career and has overall looked pretty durable. Pickett also likes to press guys up against the fence and use his reach to control the distance in space. That will make it tougher for Tiuliulin to find the early knockout he needs to win, but it’s always possible he is able to find the finish even with limited opportunities. He offers clear upside if he can knock Pickett out, but a low floor if he can’t. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Jailton Almeida

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Almeida had been scheduled to face a Heavyweight in Shamil Abdurakhimov here, but Abdurakhimov withdrew and Turkalj was announced as the replacement nine days out. The fight was then moved to a 220 lb Catchweight.

Entering this fight on an 11 fight winning streak with none of those fights even reaching the seven minute mark, Almeida has finished both of his UFC opponents in the first round. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a second round submission win on DWCS in September 2021 against a 9-0 Sambo fighter. He then landed a R1 TKO win in his debut against a grappler in Danilo Marques, before landing a first round submission in his last fight.

In his last fight, Almeida moved up to Heavyweight after his original Light Heavyweight opponent dropped out. He took on a cannonball in Parker Porter, but was still able to pick him up and land an early takedown in round one. Almeida controlled Porter on the mat for the next four and half minutes before eventually taking his back and forcing a tap through a rear-naked choke late in round one. The fight ended with Almeida ahead 18-0 in significant strikes and 36-0 in total strikes.

Now 16-2 as a pro, Almeida has six wins by KO and 10 by submission. His only early loss came in a 2017 16 second R1 KO, while he also lost the only decision he’s ever been to (2018). All 16 of Almeida’s wins have come in under seven minutes, with 12 ending in round one and four in the opening two minutes of round two.

Overall, Almeida seems to come into every fight with the same game plan of quickly getting things to the mat as violently as possible while aggressively hunting for finishes. Four of his last five wins have come by submission and 9 of his last 11 wins have ended in round one. He’s a BJJ black belt and an absolute powerhouse, which definitely makes you wonder about his cardio. Almeida has competed anywhere from Middleweight to Heavyweight in the past, but most of his career has been spent at Light Heavyweight.

Anton Turkalj

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his short notice UFC debut on just nine days’ notice, Turkalj is coming off a decision win on DWCS less than seven weeks ago in late July. It had been 15 months since he had fought leading up to that fight, after an October 2021 appearance on DWCS was canceled due to visa issues. In his second most recent fight, Turkalj landed a 13 second R1 KO with a spinning backfist, after locking in a R2 rear-naked choke in a fight he was losing before that.

In his last fight, Turkalj got clipped in the opening seconds of the fight, but responded by immediately looking for a takedown. While his opponent, Acacio dos Santos, was able to return to his feet, Turkalj kept control of his back on the feet and was eventually able to get things back to the mat. Turkalj again looked hittable to start round two, but again responded by landing a takedown. He then looked for an unsuccessful submission on the mat before Dos Santos briefly returned to his feet. After trading on the feet for a short time, Turkalj was able to get things back to the ground, where he appeared much more comfortable and finished the round on Dos Santos’ back. It was much of the same in round three as Turkalj again landed an early takedown and controlled Dos Santos for essentially the rest of the fight. Turkalj finished ahead in significant strikes 21-19 and in total strikes 71-28, while landing 11 of his 16 takedowns attempts with 11:49 in control time.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Turkalj has five wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision. Five of his wins have come in the first round, two ended in the first half of round two, and he’s coming off his only decision victory. He said after his DWCS fight that he thought it was five rounds, which you hope was a hope, but otherwise you have to question his IQ. He also walked right by Dana White after the fight and then asked if Dana was in the building, so he doesn’t appear to be the brightest bulb. He’s spent almost his entire career at 205 lb, but did have one fight down at 185 lb. He also had a 2019 exhibition grappling match against Alexander Gustafsson, who Turkalj trains with, which Gustafsson won in a decision. Turkalj’s first three pro wins all came against opponents with losing records, and he’s yet to face much in terms of competition.

Overall, Turkalj looked like a pure Swedish chain wrestler in his last match, but has been more willing to stand and trade in the past. With that said, he’s very hittable and hasn’t impressed us at all with his striking. While he has no problem spamming takedown attempts, he’s not the most dangerous fighter on the mat, and we’ve also seen him get controlled on his back at times. Turkalj trains out of All Stars in Sweden with Gustafsson and Chimaev, so he does have experienced fighters around him.

Fight Prediction:

Turkalj will have a 1” height advantage, but Almeida will have a 1” reach advantage. Turkalj is five years younger than the 31-year-old Almeida.

While both of these two are coming off of strong wrestling performances, Almeida is far more explosive and dangerous than Turkalj. There are still question marks regarding Almeida, as no one in the UFC has been able to force him to stand and trade or test his cardio beyond the first round. That may not change here, as Turkalj’s defensive wrestling hasn’t looked great, nor has his striking defense. We like Almeida to get him down and beat him up with ground and pound until either the ref stops the fight or Turkalj rolls over and Almeida locks in a rear-naked choke. Look for the finish to come in the first round, with a slight chance Turkalj can hang on long enough to get finished early in round two.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -165.

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DFS Implications:

Almeida has finished 11 straight opponents and all 16 of his career wins have come in under seven minutes. He smashed in his first two UFC fights, finishing both opponents in the first round and putting up DraftKings scores of 114 and 118. He’s shown the explosiveness and power to compete at both Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight, and now he’ll compete in a 220 lb Catchweight match against a Light Heavyweight opponent, who’s making his UFC debut on short notice. While Turkalj showed the ability to land a ton of takedowns on DWCS, his defensive wrestling hasn’t looked great, so we’re not overly concerned about the matchup here for Almeida. The interesting dynamic in play this week is that both Almeida and Chimaev are extremely expensive, which will both increase the number of dupes we see in lineups that try to jam both in and reduce Almeida’s overall ownership from what it would otherwise be (56% owned on DraftKings the last time he fought). We still expect him to be very popular as the vast majority of lineups will start with at least one of Almeida or Chimaev, as they rightfully should. We do still have questions regarding Almeida’s cardio and stand up game, but he’s so good at taking opponents down and finishing them that we may have to wait a while to actually see him get tested. We’d be surprised if he doesn’t find another quick finish here and put up another big score. Just keep in mind, he likely needs a first round finish to return value and he scored “just” 94 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel in his R2 submission win on DWCS just before making his UFC debut. The odds imply he has a 65% chance to win, a 65% chance to land a finish, and a 38% chance it comes in round one.

Turkalj is coming off a smothering decision win on DWCS, where he landed 11 takedowns on 16 attempts with nearly 12 minutes of control time. That would have been good for 125 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel. While that’s encouraging for his DFS scoring potential moving forward, especially on DraftKings, he didn’t look especially dangerous on the mat, despite his first seven pro wins all coming early. Now Turkalj will face a massive step up in competition as he makes his short notice UFC debut up at 220 lb, opposed to 205 lb where he normally competes. He looks like a guy we could be interested in playing in the future, but only after he gets steamrolled in this upcoming matchup. The one way we could see him pulling off the massive upset here is if he can simply survive for seven minutes and Almeida completely gasses out. While that’s a pretty thin angle to take, it’s certainly not impossible. The odds imply he has a 16% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Hakeem Dawodu

9th UFC Fight (6-2)

Coming off a decision win over Michael Trizano, Dawodu has gone 6-1 since getting submitted 39 seconds into his 2018 UFC debut. Six of his last seven fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2019 R3 KO over Yoshinori Horie, who was making his first and only appearance with the organization. You have to go all the way back to 2016 to find Dawodu’s second most recent early win, which is somewhat surprising considering how solid of a striker he is. His only loss in his last seven fights came against undefeated stud Movsar Evloev. After getting taken down only 4 times on 27 attempts in his first six UFC fights, Dawodu was grounded 9 times on 13 attempts by Evloev.

In his last fight, Dawodu put on a striking clinic against Trizano, lapping him in striking as he finished ahead 141-70 in significant strikes and 189-94 in total strikes, while also leading 3:46-0:33 in control time. Trizano was able to land the only takedown he attempted, but he wasn’t able to do anything with it. Also, it occurred in the third round and it was too little, too late.

Now 13-2-1 as a pro, Dawodu has seven wins by KO and six by decision. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once and has one decision loss. His last seven fights have all made it to the third round, and 10 of his last 11 have seen round two. Six of his seven knockouts occurred in his first seven pro matches.

Overall, Dawodu is a solid Muay Thai fighter, with crisp, powerful striking, but he doesn’t really offer anything in terms of offensive grappling. He’s only attempted two takedowns in eight UFC fights and failed to land either of those. We’ve yet to see him get outclassed on the feet in his career and both of his losses came against grapplers. He has a 65% takedown defense, but the only fighter to ever get him down more than twice was Evloev.

Julian Erosa

11th UFC Fight (5-5)

Quietly 5-1 in his last six fights, Erosa most recently won a split decision over Steven Peterson, which is Erosa’s only fight to require the judges in his last seven bouts and his first decision win since 2017. Erosa originally made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in 2015, but after starting 1-1 he was released in 2016. He then worked his way back into the organization through DWCS in 2018, but lost three straight fights and was released in 2019. However, after winning one fight on the regional scene, the UFC brought Erosa back to fight Sean Woodson on short notice and Erosa landed a third round submission win and followed it up with a R1 KO victory over Nate Landwehr. Erosa then got knocked out by Seung Woo Choi in the first round, before landing another third round submission win leading up to his split decision victory in his last outing.

In his last fight, we saw a high-volume brawl between Erosa and Steven Peterson with Erosa finishing ahead in significant strikes 155-148, while Peterson led in total strikes 174-163. Erosa landed three of his five takedown attempts, while Peterson failed to land either of his two attempts. One judge thought Peterson won, but the other two gave it to Erosa.

Now 27-9 as a pro, Erosa has 11 wins by KO, 12 by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out five times, has four decision losses. Three of his KO losses occurred in round one, while one ended in round two and the other round three. Two of his last three submission wins came in the third round of Catchweight fights he took on short notice. He only has one KO win since 2018. Erosa mostly fights down at 145 lb, where he’s gone just 2-4 in the UFC, while he’s gone 1-1 in the UFC at 155 lb and 2-0 at 150 lb Catchweight. Three of his four 145 lb UFC losses have come by KO.

Overall, Erosa is a fearless brawler who also possesses dangerous submission skills, but has a suspect chin. He would be a prime candidate for a 150 lb division, as he’s gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, and has been more prone to getting knocked out at 145 lb. He averages 6.29 SSL/min (3rd most on the slate) and 6.51 SSA/min (most on the slate), while tacking on 1.7 TDK/15 min. He’s landed eight combined takedowns in his last three fights to make it out of round one, while also topping 100 significant strikes landed in each of those matches.

Fight Prediction:

Erosa will have a 5” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as a fun striking battle, with the wildcard being Erosa’s grappling. Dawodu is the superior striker and is also far more durable, but Erosa will have the size and grappling advantage. While Dawodu has been submitted once in the past and was also taken down nine times by Movsar Evloev, his takedown and submission defense have generally been solid outside of those minor lapses. As long as he can keep the find standing, we love his chances of winning. While six of his last seven fights have gone the distance, this looks like a good opportunity for him to land a knockout, as Erosa has been knocked out in five of his nine career losses and three of his four UFC losses at 145 lb. Give us Dawodu wins by KO here.

Our favorite bet here is “Dawodu KO” at +270.

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DFS Implications:

Dawodu is coming off a career best striking performance, where he landed 141 significant strikes and still scored 103 DraftKings points in a decision win. Prior to that, he had averaged 65 DraftKings points in his first four UFC decision wins, failing to top 71 points in any of those. Even in his lone early win in the UFC, he still scored just 91 points in a R3 KO. As a one-dimensional striker or generally fights to decisions, it’s been tough to trust him in DFS, but he does average 5.39 SSL/min and is stepping into a great matchup to put up another big striking number as he faces Julian Erosa, who averages 6.51 SSA/min (most on the slate). Erosa has also been knocked out in five of his nine career losses, and three of his four UFC losses at 145 lb, so this looks like a great opportunity for Dawodu to notch his second UFC knockout. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Erosa’s brawl-heavy fighting style lends itself well to DFS production for everyone involved in his fights, as he averages 6.29 SSL/min and 6.51 SSA/min. Prior to his recent high-volume decision win, he hadn’t required the judges in six straight fights (4-2), which also bodes well for fantasy scoring. While Erosa rarely requires the judges, he was able to drop 112 DraftKings points in his recent decision win and has averaged 106 DraftKings points in his five UFC victories. With that said, he’s facing a much tougher opponent here in Hakeem Dawodu, who only averages 2.72 SSA/min and has a pretty solid 65% takedown defense that has generally been better than it looks on paper. Dawodu has never been knocked out, his lone submission loss occurred in his UFC debut, and no one has ever landed more than 70 significant strikes against him. That all makes it much tougher to get excited about playing Erosa here, but his cheap price tag does keep him in play as there’s always a chance he can find success on the mat. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Ion Cutelaba

13th UFC Fight (5-6-1)

Continuing to struggle with consistency, Cutelaba hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2017-2018 and has gone just 2-4-1 in his last seven, with just one win in his last five outings. He’ll be looking to bounce back from a round one submission loss to Ryan Spann, after dominating Devin Clark for 15 minutes in a 2021 decision win. Just prior to defeating Clark, Cutelaba fought to a split draw against Dustin Jacoby where Cutelaba landed eight takedowns in the first round. That came just after he got knocked out in the first round of back-to-back fights against Magomed Ankalaev. Cutelaba’s second most recent win was all the way back in 2019 against Khalil Rountree.

In his last fight, Cutelaba landed a takedown just under a minute into the first round and immediately found himself in full mount. However, Spann was able to work his way back to his guard and then back to his feet. Cutelaba immediately looked to get him down again and you could already see Spann trying to cinch up a guillotine choke, although Cutelaba brushed it off and landed his second takedown. Again, he wasn’t able to hold the position as Spann immediately kicked him off and returned to his feet. And again, Cutelaba took Spann right back down to the mat. The dance continued as Spann again immediately returned to his feet for the third straight time and as Cutelaba looked for his fourth takedown in the opening minutes, Spann locked up a guillotine and forced a quick tap. The fight ended with Spann ahead just 4-2 in significant strikes and 5-2 in total strikes, while Cutelaba landed all three of his takedown attempts.

Now 16-7-1 as a pro, Cutelaba has 12 wins by KO, two submissions (both by Omoplata early in his career), and two decision victories. Thirteen of his 14 finishes have occurred in round one, with the one exception being a 2013 TKO that occurred 29 seconds into round two in what was his fourth pro fight. He’s been knocked out twice (both times by Magomed Ankalaev), submitted three times, has one decision defeat, and one DQ loss. Cutelaba has always been a fast starter and 18 of his 25 pro fights have ended in the first round (13-4, NC).

Overall, Cutelaba is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but tends to slow down later on in fights. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo and Judo, but oftentimes is content with duking it out on the feet. His takedowns have come in clusters in his career, with 30 landed on 46 attempts in five of his UFC fights, but zero landed on just two attempts in his other seven matches. That can partially be attributed to the fact that four of those seven fights ended in the first round, while another ended in round two. He’s landed a combined 20 takedowns on 34 attempts in his last three fights. While Cutelaba is extremely dangerous, he’s only landed one finish in his career beyond the first round. And since joining the UFC, he’s just 2-3-1 in fights that have made it past round one. With that said, he’s still only lost one decision in his career, although he’s only been to four (2-1-1).

Johnny Walker

9th UFC Fight (4-4)

Walker was recently knocked out in the first round by Jamahal Hill and has now lost his last two and four of his last five matches. He’s now blaming CBD oil for his poor performances, so it’s nice to finally see him take some accountability. His last 10 fights have all ended in either round one knockouts (5-2) or decisions (1-2). His only win in his last five came in a dicey round one KO over Ryan Spann in 2020, and he’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his last four losses.

In his last fight, we saw a feeling out process early on, with the fight starting out at kicking range until Walker looked to clinch. Hill escaped and after starting the fight in his normal southpaw he decided to give Walker a new look and switch to an orthodox stance. As soon as he did that he connected on his first punch to the head of Walker and toppled him like a redwood to end the fight. Walker actually finished ahead in significant strikes 12-6 and in total strikes 12-7, while no takedowns were attempted in the fight, but Hill landed the only shot that really counted.

Now 18-7 as a pro, Walker has 15 wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision. He’s been knocked out four times, has one submission loss, and two decision defeats. Walker is now 4-4 in the UFC with five of those fights ending in first round KOs (4-2), all in under three minutes, and the other two going the distance (0-2). Of his 22 pro fights to end early (17-5), only four have made it out of round one, with just one making it to round three, which was a 2015 R3 KO win 28 seconds into round three in Walker’s 5th pro fight. He’s had three fights end in round two (1-2), with a 2014 KO loss, a 2015 submission loss, and a 2018 KO win.

Historically, Walker has been a wild power puncher with a 5-8 minute gas tank, although it appears his new team is trying to instill a more patient approach in him. He hasn’t attempted a takedown in any of his UFC fights, and only wants to go to the ground if it’s to do the worm as he celebrates a victory. He relies on his power and athleticism to win fights and looks extremely hittable with a poor striking defense. Walker has been taken down 6 times on 16 attempts (62.5% defense) in his nine UFC fights. Three of his last four opponents to try and take him down have been successful, with the one exception being Thiago Santos who failed on his only attempt.

Fight Prediction:

Walker will have a 5” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.

Both of these two are desperate for a win, as they each only have one victory in their last five outings. Cutelaba has at least looked good/dangerous lately, while Walker has looked lost out there. We expect Cutelaba to come in with another wrestling heavy approach as Walker doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling despite being a BJJ brown belt. Both guys slow down later in fights and the winner will likely be determined in the first round. We expect Cutelaba to either knock Walker out in round one or wrestle his way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “Cutelaba R1 KO” at +210.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Cutelaba has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with scores of 107 or more in his last four, and 119 or more in three of those. He offers massive wrestling upside and a history of landing first round knockouts. His wrestling allows him to put up huge scores even in decisions, and he scored 127 DraftKings points and 118 FanDuel points in his last decision win. Now he’ll face a striker with questionable cardio in Johnny Walker and we expect Cutelaba to rely heavily on his wrestling, which should allow him to score well in a win, regardless of whether or not he gets a finish. However, the field is acutely aware of this, and Cutelaba was 47% owned on DraftKings the last time he fought, which is his one downside in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.

All four of Walker’s UFC victories have ended in the first round, as have 15 of his 18 overall career wins. Historically, he’s been a R1 KO or bust fighter, although his team at SBG Ireland appears to be trying to slow down the pace at which he fights. He’s averaged 117 DraftKings points in his four UFC victories and his lone path to victory appears to be to land a first round knockout, unless Cutelaba trips into another guillotine choke. It’s hard to see Walker winning a decision here, but if he somehow did it would be unlikely to score well, as he’s never landed a takedown in the UFC and averages just 3.45 SSL/min. While Walker still has powerful striking, the only fighter to ever knock Cutelaba out was Magomed Ankalaev, and we expect Cutelaba’s wrestling-heavy approach to quickly drain Walker’s cardio. So it’s safe to continue treating Walker as a R1 KO or bust fighter here. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Irene Aldana

11th UFC Fight (6-4)

This fight had been scheduled to take place at 135 lb, but it got moved to a 140 lb Catchweight match during weigh-ins after it became clear Chiasson would not be able to make weight. Both of these two have struggled on the scale, as Aldana has had back-to-back tough weigh-ins prior to this, missing weight by 3.5 lb for his last fight after looking rough but making weight against Holm. So maybe the Catchweight will benefit both fighters.

Fourteen months removed from her second R1 knockout win in her last three fights, Aldana finished Yana Kunitskaya after losing a five round decision to Holly Holm in October 2020. Holm also nearly doubled her career takedown total as she landed 5 of her 14 attempts against Aldana after only landing six takedowns in her previous 11 UFC fights combined. That’s especially impressive considering that Aldana entered the match with an elite 93% takedown defense. She hasn’t been very active lately, fighting just once in 2020, once in 2021, and now for the first time in 2022. Her third most recent fight was all the way back in December 2019, when Aldana knocked out Ketlen Vieira in the first round. Prior to those three fights, Aldana was 4-3 in the UFC, with six of those fights going the distance and the other ending in a 2019 R3 armbar. Three of those decisions were split (1-2) and all four of Aldana’s UFC losses have gone the distance.

In her last fight, Aldana did a good job of staying off the fence against an opponent in Yana Kunitskaya who is typically trying to engage in the clinch and make fights ugly. Aldana busted Kunitskaya up early in the round as she methodically landed punches. Aldana dropped Kunitskaya with a big left hand in the final two minutes of the round and then punished her with ground and pound on the mat until the ref eventually stopped the fight with 25 seconds remaining in the round. The fight ended with Aldana ahead 37-24 in significant strikes and 37-30 in total strikes, with no takedowns attempted on either side and Aldana leading in control time 1:24-0:11.

Now 13-6 as a pro, Aldana has seven wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. She’s been knocked out twice and has four decision losses. All nine of Aldana’s fights prior to joining the UFC ended early, with her winning seven of them and getting knocked out in the later rounds of the other two.

Overall, Aldana averages the fifth highest number of significant strikes landed on the slate at 5.61 per minute and also absorbs the fourth most on the card at 5.94/minute. Despite being taken down 5 times on 14 attempts by an incensed Holly Holm, Aldana still owns an 84% career takedown defense as she’s only been taken down 7 times on 45 attempts in the UFC. Aldana also hasn’t landed a takedown of her own in her last seven fights and is a pure striker who has good boxing and heavy hands.

Macy Chiasson

9th UFC Fight (6-2)

After fighting her last two matches at 145 lb, Chiasson tried and failed to move back down to 135 lb. She’s coming off a split-decision win over Norma Dumont after suffering the first early loss of her career in a R2 submission loss to Raquel Pennington in a fight that Chiasson accepted on short notice. Prior to that she had won a pair of decisions at 135 lb, over an aging and now retired Marion Reneau and a terrible Shanna Young. Chiasson made her way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in 2018 after having just two pro fights prior to that.

We already broke down the Chiasson/Dumont fight (above), but here it is again:

In her last fight, we once again saw a slow start, with Chiasson taking an early lead in significant strikes, while also tacking on a takedown in the first round. Chiasson did a good job of controlling the range in round two and then clinched Dumont up and took her down midway through the round. Dumont was briefly able to reverse the position, but Chiasson immediately worked her way back to her feet and resumed pushing Dumont up against the cage. Chiasson continued to grind on Dumont and look for takedowns as she made the fight ugly and Dumont had absolutely no answer for anything she was doing. Dumont landed a couple of big punches early in round three, but Chiasson immediately took her down in response. Dumont did a decent job of returning to her feet when she got taken down, but Chiasson never let her go and continued to push her up against the cage and work on returning her to the mat. The fight ended with Dumont ahead in significant strikes 38-32, but Chiasson leading in total strikes 131-96. Chiasson also landed 6 of her 12 takedown attempts and finished ahead in control time 7:34-0:26. Dumont did not attempt a takedown in the fight. While two of the judges rightfully scored it 30-27 in favor of Chiasson, judge Junichiro Kamijo insanely ruled it 29-28 in favor of Dumont as the fight ended in a split decision.

Now 7-2 as a pro, Chiasson has two wins by KO, two by submission, and four decisions. She’s been submitted once and has one decision loss. One of her early wins came in round one, two ended in round two, and the other ended in round three. Nine of her 10 career fights have made it to the second round, with six seeing round three, and five going the distance. Chiasson fought at 145 lb until her second UFC fight when she dropped down to 135 lb for a five fight stretch (4-1) before moving back up. It seems like at this point 145 lb makes more sense for her and the only reason to try and make 135 lb is the lack of bodies at 145 lb.

Overall, Chiasson is still a pretty raw fighter who relies on her size and strength to win fights. However, after failing to land a takedown in her first four UFC fights, she’s landed 11 in her last four matches, and her takedown accuracy is improving. She has only topped 51 significant strikes in one of her eight UFC fights and averages just 3.70 SSL/min.

Fight Prediction:

Chiasson will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. She’s also three years younger than the 34-year-old Aldana.

We expect this to play out as a striker versus grappler battle with Chiasson continuing to rely on her wrestling as she tries to push Aldana up against the cage, land takedowns, and make the fight ugly. While Aldana struggled to defend takedowns against Holly Holm, she’s still only been taken down 7 times on 45 attempts in her 10 UFC fights. As long as she can keep this fight standing and off the cage she should be able to outbox Chiasson and either notch another knockout or outland her way to a decision win. A knockout appears less likely against a behemoth like Chiasson who has never been knocked out, but the same could have been said when Aldana took on Ketlen Vieira and she still got the job done. It’s still more likely this goes the distance and we like Aldana to get her hand raised.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -170.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Aldana has scored 117 and 110 DraftKings in her last two wins, which both ended in R1 KOs, after averaging just 83 points in her first four UFC victories, which all made it to the third round with three going the distance. She’s a pure striker, and while she lands a good amount of striking volume (5.61 SSL/min), it’s hard to see her returning value at her high price tag without an early knockout. Chiasson has never been knocked out, but neither had Vieira before Aldana finished her in the first round. We expect Chiasson to be looking to grapple, which also limits Aldana’s striking ceiling, and it seems safe to call her a KO or bust DFS option. The odds imply she has a 62% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

Chiasson has averaged 102 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins, with at least 102 points in five of those. After finishing her first three UFC opponents, her last three wins have all gone the distance, but she still put up big scores in two of those when she was able to land multiple takedowns. She landed a career best six takedowns in her last fight against Norma Dumont, but will now face the tough 84% takedown defense of Aldana, who’s only been taken down 7 times on 45 attempts in 10 UFC fights. At her cheaper price tag, Chiasson doesn’t need to put up a massive score to end up in tournament winning lineups, but she’ll have a tougher time winning this fight if she doesn’t find success in taking Aldana down. That has us lower on Chiasson than normal, but if she proves us wrong and can take Aldana down multiple times then she clearly has the ability to score well in a decision. The odds imply she has a 38% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Daniel Rodriguez

8th UFC Fight (6-1)

Rodriguez had originally been scheduled to face Kevin Holland here at 180 lb, but after Chimaev missed weight by 7.5 lb the entire main card turned into a game of musical chairs and Rodriguez got matched up with Li Jingliang instead, who weighed in at 170.5 lb (how the fuck is this sanctioned?!).

Just over a year removed from winning a decision over Kevin Lee, Rodriguez had to undergo multiple hand surgeries that kept him out of action. He enters this matchup on a three fight winning streak and has only lost once in his last 13 matches, which came in a very questionable split decision against Nicolas Dalby. Rodriguez’s last six fights have all ended in either first round knockouts (2-0) or decisions (3-1).

In his last fight, Rodriguez faced Kevin Lee, who was moving up from 155 lb. While Lee was able to land three takedowns on seven attempts, he was only able to finish ahead 3:34-0:45 in control time. The majority of that came in round one and Rodriguez did a better job of returning to his feet as the fight went on. Rodriguez led the dance in striking every step of the way and his output increased as the fight went on. The fight ended with Rodriguez ahead 120-56 in significant strikes and 137-74 in total strikes.

Now 16-2 as a pro, Rodriguez has eight wins by KO, four by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses ending in split decisions. While 12 of his 18 pro fights have ended early, three of his last four and four of his seven UFC fights have gone the distance. He’s also landed two first round knockouts and a second round submission in the UFC.

Overall, Rodriguez is a high-volume brawler, who averages 8.06 SSL/min (most on the slate) and 5.38 SSA/min (7th most on the slate). He’s made a career out of taking fights on short notice. This isn’t even the first time he’s had an opponent change on 24 hour’s notice as he had a last minute opponent change after weigh-ins when he knocked out Dwight Grant when he had originally been scheduled to face Takashi Sato. For the record, Grant nearly knocked out Rodriguez in that fight but the ref let it continue in one of the crazier first rounds you’ll see. It’s rare to see Rodriguez shoot for a takedown and even more rare for him to land one, as he’s only landed one of his four attempts in seven UFC fights.

Li Jingliang

17th UFC Fight (11-5)

Jingliang has been scheduled to face Tony Ferguson, but will now face a very different opponent on just 24 hour’s notice in Rodriguez. On top of that, he weighed in at just 170.5 lb Friday morning, while Rodriguez tipped the scales at 179 lb. Still no idea how this was allowed to go on…

Fresh off a R2 TKO win over Muslim Salikhov, who has previously never been knocked out in his career, Jingliang has alternated wins and losses for five straight fights. His last four wins have all ended in knockouts, while two of his last three losses have gone the distance. Just before his recent win, he was submitted in the first round by Khamzat Chimaev, after Jingliang knocked out Santiago Ponzinibbio in the first round just before that. Looking back one fight further, he lost a grappling-heavy decision against Neil Magny after landing back-to-back third round knockouts against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and David Zawada.

In his last fight, we saw a slower paced striking battle against Muslim Salikhov, with each fighter also landing one takedown. After not a lot happened in the first nine minutes, Jingliang caught Salikhov with a big right hand in the final minute of round two that immediately had Salikhov looking to grapple. Jingliang did a good job of defending the takedown attempts and dropped Salikhov with another big right hand and then quickly forced a stoppage with 22 second left in round two as he rained down elbows on the mat. The fight ended with Jingliang ahead 38-23 in significant strikes and 40-33 in total strikes with takedowns dead even at one apiece.

Now 19-7 as a pro, Jingliang has 10 wins by KO, four by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and has five decision defeats. He’s never lost two fights in a row and has followed up five of his seven losses with knockout wins. His last four wins have all ended in knockouts and he’s only been to one decision in his last six fights dating back to 2018.

Overall, Jingliang is a solid striker and despite struggling on the mat at times he’s also a BJJ black belt. However, he’s lost his last three fights where he’s trailed in takedowns. And while he has four submission wins on his record, three of those came in his first six pro fights and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013. He’s landed eight knockouts in the UFC to go along with three decision wins. Jingliang is a durable power puncher who throws big looping shots and is always dangerous until the end.

Fight Prediction:

Rodriguez will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

Jingliang has faced several dangerous strikers throughout his career, but has still never been knocked out. However, he’s never had to give up 8.5 lb to an opponent at weigh-ins, so obviously this is a unique situation. It will be interesting to see how much of an impact that makes, as Rodriguez does at least typically fight down at 170 lb. Both of these guys are dangerous strikers, but neither one of them have even been knocked out, making a decision fairly likely here. The short notice nature and weight discrepancy does add some uncertainty to the mix, but we’ll say Rodriguez outlands his way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “Waiting on Props” at +X.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

We’ve seen one mispriced fighter on plenty of DraftKings slates. We’ve even seen two and rarely three. However 5-6 mispriced fighters is a realm we’ve yet to dive into. Because of that, you can get more creative on this slate, and you’ll likely have to if you want to avoid massively duped lineups. Keep in mind, while DraftKings left pricing “as is” in a stunning act of awareness, FanDuel actually repriced the three fights that changed. So we have two COMPLETELY different slates depending on what site you’re playing on.

Rodriguez is massively mispriced at just $7,500 on DraftKings as a -165 favorite and his ownership will reflect that. Even when he’s not mispriced, Rodriguez has historically been incredibly popular, checking in at 41% owned on DraftKings the last time he fought when he was $7,700 as a +120 underdog. Now that he’s cheaper despite being a favorite, look for that number to grow. Rodriguez has averaged 102 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins and even in his three decision victories he’s still averaged 93 points, with at least 85 points in all of those. That makes it tougher for him to fail at his cheap price tag in a win. With that said, Jingliang only averages 3.66 SSA/min and no one has ever landed more than 74 significant strikes against him in 16 UFC fights. Jingliang has also never been knocked out, so a finish here is less likely. Rodriguez is also coming off multiple hand surgeries and hasn’t fought in over a year, so there’s always a chance he starts a little slower, which would also lower his scoring potential. While it’s much easier for Rodriguez to end up in winning lineups due to his DraftKings price, there are definitely ways he gets left out even in a win if we get a higher scoring slate with multiple underdogs winning. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Jingliang’s last four wins have all come by KO, as have 8 of his 11 UFC victories. He’s averaged 104 DraftKings points in those eight knockout wins, but doesn’t land a ton of striking volume or takedowns and has never scored above 111 points. He’s only averaged 74 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, and relies entirely on knocking opponents out to score well. While we like playing Jingliang when he’s priced as an underdog, it’s tougher for him to return value at his high price tag in this matchup. Rodriguez has never been finished in his career, but does average 5.38 SSA/min. Nevertheless, it’s hard to see Jingliang returning value in a decision at his expensive price tag on DraftKings. Even if he does land a knockout, there’s a decent chance he gets priced out of winning tournament lineups. Working in his favor for DraftKings tournaments, he’s incredibly overpriced and will therefore be very low owned. If he manages to hand Rodriguez the first early loss of his career, Jingliang could be a massive leverage play against one of the most popular fighters on the slate. The odds imply Jingliang has a 41% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Khamzat Chimaev

6th UFC Fight (5-0)

Chimaev had been scheduled to face Nate Diaz at 170 lb before he missed weight by 7.5 lb and sent the entire card cascading into complete chaos. He was then rebooked against Kevin Holland at a 180 lb Catchweight (where Holland had already been preparing to fight) with just a day to prepare.

Maintaining his undefeated pro record, Chimaev finally faced some adversity for the first time when he won a close decision over Gilbert Burns in his last fight after finishing the first 10 opponents of his career in the first two rounds. Chimaev exploded onto the UFC scene in July 2020 with a pair of dominating ground finishes against strikers in John Phillips and Rhys McKee spaced just 10 days apart. Chimaev followed that up with a 17 second R1 KO win over grappler Gerald Meerschaert just two months later. In Chimaev’s second most recent fight, he took on another striker in Li Jingliang, who he easily took down and submitted in the first round. Those first four opponents insanely combined for just a single significant strike landed against him.

Chimaev had been scheduled to face Leon Edwards on three separate occasions following his win over Meerschaert, but all three were canceled due to COVID, with Edwards testing positive the first time and then Chimaev dealing with ongoing effects of a serious COVID case after that. At one point, Chimaev even announced that he was retiring due to the lingering effects. Thankfully he was finally able to get past it and resume his career.

Looking back to his pre-UFC career, Chimaev fought formerly undefeated Combat Sambo World Champion Ikram Aliskerov in 2019, and while Chimaev did unsuccessfully try to take the fight to the ground, he ultimately finished it with a violent knockout on the feet. So in general, when he faces strikers he gets them to the mat and easily finishes them, but when he faces grapplers he typically ends up standing and trading with them.

In his last fight, Chimaev was able to take Burns down less than a minute into the fight, but Burns was able to quickly return to his feet. However, Chimaev quickly returned him to the mat, although he appeared cautious of Burns’ defensive grappling and backed up, allowing the ref to quickly stand the fight back up. The two stood and traded for the next couple of minutes before Chimaev dropped burns with a right jab in the final minute of the round. Chimaev hammered Burns on the mat but again looked weary of his dangerous defensive guard and backed up, again allowing the ref to stand the fight back up. The round soon ended with Chimaev clearly taking an early lead on the scorecards. Burns unsuccessfully tried to take Chimaev down early in round two, and would go on to miss on all five of his takedown attempts in the fight. However, Burns looked to have Chimaev somewhat hurt through a combination of punches midway through round two as he fought himself back into the fight. Unfettered, Chimaev appeared to quickly recover and the mayhem continued. It looked like Burns dropped Chimaev in the final seconds of the round, but he wasn’t credited with a knockdown, and Chimaev immediately responded by taking Burns down as the round ended. Nevertheless, Burns clearly won the round and it was even on the scorecards going into round three. Burns tried and failed to take Chimaev down early in round three, while Chimaev was content with keeping the fight standing at that point. Chimaev took an early lead in strikes in the round, but Burns made things close as the round went on. In the end, the third round was close but Chimaev landed the more impactful blows and rightfully won the round on all three scorecards to get his hand raised in a unanimous 29-28 decision. The fight ended with Burns actually ahead in significant strikes 119-108 and in total strikes 141-124, but Chimaev ahead on takedowns 2-0 and in control time 2:23-0:06

Now 11-0 as a pro, Chimaev has six wins by KO, four by submission, and one decision win. Seven of his 11 career wins have come in the first round, with three ending in round two. His last five knockouts have all come in round one, with his lone second round KO win coming in his 2018 pro debut. His four submission wins have been spread across the first two rounds. He’s split time between Welterweight and Middleweight throughout his career, going 6-0 at 170 lb and 5-0 at 185 lb. He made his debut at 185 lb, but just ten days later he dropped down to 170 lb. He moved back up to 185 lb for his third UFC fight, but his last two have been back down at 170 lb where this next one will also be.

This will be the first five-round fight of Chimaev’s career, so he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than three rounds and has only even seen the third round once.

Overall, Chimaev is a smothering wrestler and a dangerous striker. He’s huge at 170 lb and is able to simply overpower most of his opponents. We finally saw him get extended in his last match, and while the performance was far from flawless, he showed he can throw down in a war and fight through adversity. We still don’t know what his cardio will look like in the championship rounds, but it’s possible we’ll find out in this next matchup. He’s landed six takedowns on nine attempts (66.7% accuracy) in his five UFC fights, while stuffing all five of the attempts against him (all from Burns). After only absorbing one significant strike in his first four UFC fights, Chimaev took 119 from Burns and now averages 7.89 SSL/min and 4.30 SSA/min.

Kevin Holland

16th UFC Fight (10-4-1)

Holland had been set to face Daniel Rodriguez in a three-round 180 lb Catchweight match here before the slate got flipped upside down. After preparing to face a brawling striker, Holland will now take on a dangerous grappler in a five-round fight on 24 hours notice.

Holland fought at 185 lb until he dropped down to 170 lb earlier this year. Since making the switch, he’s finished two straight opponents in the second round and has overall looked good. The first of those was an early R2 TKO over a struggling Alex Oliveira, while the most recent was a second round submission win over Tim Means.

In his last fight, Holland got taken down twice on five attempts by Tim Means, but did a good job of not getting controlled on the mat as Means finished with just 90 seconds of control time. Holland hurt Means early in the second round with a perfectly placed punch and then immediately locked up a submission to put him away. Holland finished ahead in significant strikes 36-21 and in total strikes 53-25, while failing to land his only takedown attempt.

Now 23-7 as a pro, Holland has 13 wins by KO, six by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but he has two submission losses and five by decision. He would have three submission losses on his record, but 2021 R1 submission loss was ruled a No Contest after an accidental clash of heads with Kyle Daukaus began the finishing sequence that resulted in a submission. Holland’s last four wins have all come early, while his last two official losses both ended in five-round decisions. Holland went 5-1 at 170 lb earlier in his career, but had been at 185 lb since 2017. His only loss at 170 lb ended in a decision, while all of his wins at the weight class have come early—all in the first two rounds.

Overall, Holland is a second degree black belt in Kung Fu and primarily a striker but is technically a BJJ black belt and does have some submission skills. His wrestling is where he really struggles and that’s where his recent opponents continue to attack him. He’s long, powerful and dangerous on the feet, in addition to being very durable. It seems like he’s still in the process of finding his new identity at a new weight class after his defensive wrestling was so exposed in 2021.

Fight Prediction:

Holland will have a 1” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.

While this sets up for Chimaev to dominate on the ground, but you do have to wonder how Chimaev’s cardio will look if this fight somehow makes it to the championship rounds, as he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes. Holland got absolutely dominated on the mat in back-to-back five round decision losses to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson at 185 lb, but has been working on his wrestling since then. Nevertheless, his grappling will be no match for Chimaev’s relentless wrestling and Holland’s only hope will be to finish Chimaev on the feet before the fight can hit the mat. We like Chimaev to quickly get this fight to the mat and submit Holland in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Waiting on Props” at +X.

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DFS Implications:

Chimaev is coming off the first fight of his career to make it past the second round, but even in a three-round decision win he still scored 101 DraftKings points. He’s now averaged 118 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, scoring 117 or more in his first four victories. He showed less of a willingness to go to work on the mat against a dangerous grappler in Burns in his last matchup, but now he’ll face an opponent who really struggles on his back. The pace we saw in Chimaev’s last fight didn’t appear sustainable for five rounds, but if we extend the numbers from that three-round decision over the course of 25 minutes he would have scored 148 DraftKings points and 168 points on FanDuel in what was largely a striking battle. So if this fight does remain standing, which we’d be shocked if it did, Chimaev could still score well in a decision. The only way we see Chimaev failing to score well is with a loss here and with so much value on the slate we’re less concerned about him getting priced out of the winning lineup as the most expensive fighter on the slate. The odds imply he has an 81% chance to win.

Holland is massively overpriced on DraftKings after the late opponent change, which should keep his ownership incredibly low. While he’s been a consistent DFS producer when he can find a finish, this is a nightmare matchup for him and we’ve consistently seen him struggle against grapplers. His mispricing introduces even more ways for him to fail to end up in winning lineups, as an early second round finish after getting controlled in round one would be unlikely to return value. That means Holland will either need to land a first round knockout or goat Chimaev into taking part in a high-volume striking battle, which seems highly unlikely. So while Holland clearly represents a massive leverage opportunity against the most popular fighter on the slate, he’s still nothing more than a hail mary play in this spot. The odds imply he has a 19% chance to win.

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Fight #1

Tony Ferguson

21st UFC Fight (15-5)

Ferguson had been set to face Li Jingliang here in a three-round fight, but instead found himself in a five-round main event facing another aging fighter in Nate Diaz after Chimaev missed weight and was removed from the matchup.

Moving up to 170 lb for the first time since his 2011 UFC debut, Ferguson continues his freefall as he’s on a four fight skid and coming off a violent KO loss. Now 38 years old, the writing is on the wall for Ferguson but he’s stuck staring out the window as he imagines a world where he’s not completely washed.

In his last fight, Ferguson started out decently before getting taken down midway through the first round by Michael Chandler. While Ferguson was initially very offensive off his back, he began to wilt under the pressure that Chandler was putting on him late in the round. The clock ran out in round one with Chandler on top, before the fight returned to the feet in round two. After briefly sizing up Ferguson in the opening seconds of round two, Chandler snatched his soul with a front kick up the middle square to the chin of Ferguson that immediately left him lifeless on the mat. That was the first time Ferguson has ever been knocked out cold in his career. The fight ended with Chandler ahead 27-20 in significant strikes and 43-27 in total strikes, while he landed the only takedown attempt in the fight with 2:29 in control time.

Now 25-7 as a pro, Ferguson has 12 wins by KO, eight by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, although the first of those came in a 2020 R5 TKO where he was still on his feet and he disputed the stoppage, although it looked like the right call. He’s also been submitted once, but that was all the way back in 2009. His other four losses all went the distance. His last 11 fights have all made it past the first round, with six seeing a third round and four going the distance. Ferguson started his career at 170 lb before moving down to 155 lb in 2011, following his UFC debut. He’ll now be moving back up to 170 lb, where he hasn’t fought in 11 years.

Overall, Ferguson is a shell of his past self and we’ve seen him get dominated on both the feet and the mat in his current losing streak. His body has taken insane abuse, and his once legendary durability is finally giving out. While Ferguson is a jiu-jitsu black belt with a background in wrestling and a dangerous submission threat, he hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 11 fights (0 for 5 on his attempts) or even attempted one in his last seven.

Nate Diaz

27th UFC Fight (15-11)

Diaz had been putting his affairs in order as he prepared to make the final walk on his way to his execution against Chimaev, but will now get a significantly easier matchup against a washed up Tony Ferguson who’s moving up a weight class.

Over three years removed from his last win, Diaz is coming off a pair of losses and has dropped three of his last four. He’s only fought once since November 2019, which was when he lost a June 2021 five-round decision to Leon Edwards. His second most recent fight ended in a November 2019 R3 TKO doctor stoppage loss against Jorge Masvidal after Diaz won a three round decision over Anthony Pettis just before that. Diaz hadn’t fought in three years leading up to the win over Pettis, after splitting a pair of fights against Conor McGregor in 2016 with a R2 submission win followed by a majority decision loss. The submission win over McGregor is the only time Diaz has finished anybody in his last seven fights since he knocked out Gray Maynard all the way back in 2013 when Diaz was fighting at 155 lb.

In his last fight, we saw a slower pace that’s typical when Leon Edwards fights. Diaz had averaged 6.98 SSL/min and 6.43 SSA/min in his five previous fights, but in his fight against Edwards those numbers plummeted to 3.04 SSL/min and 3.08 SSA/min as Edwards narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 77-76. While Diaz actually outlanded Edwards 130-83 in total strikes, Edwards was able to take Diaz down four times on five attempts with just under five minutes of control time, while Diaz didn’t attempt any takedowns of his own in the fight. Edwards controlled the first three rounds through a combination of striking and grappling, and was able to split Diaz open in a couple of different spots with slicing elbows in round three. He continued to amass damage in round four and knowing he was ahead, his corner told him to play it safe going into the final round. Edwards was well on his way to coasting to an easy decision win before Diaz clipped him with a left hand with just over a minute remaining in the fight and Edwards had to hang on for dear life down the stretch. Of course instead of immediately pouncing on Edwards for the finish, Diaz simply pointed at him or else he might have been able to get Edwards out of there.

Now 20-13 as a pro, Diaz has five wins by KO, 11 by submission, and four decisions. He has two TKO losses (R2 2013 & R3 2019), one submission loss (R2 2006), and 10 decision losses. His last seven fights have all made it out of round one, with six of those seeing a third round, and five going the distance.

Diaz started his pro career at 155 lb in 2004, before testing 170 lb in his second pro fight where he lost a decision. He then dropped back down to 155 lb, where he joined the UFC in 2077 and stayed until 2010 when he moved up a weight class and actually fought in a 177 lb Catchweight match and knocked out Rory Markham in the first round. Markham finished 1-2 in the UFC with all three fights ending in first round knockouts and was knocked out in all six of his pro losses. Next, in his first actual UFC fight at Welterweight (opposed to a Catchweight), Diaz landed a 2010 third round submission win over Marcus Davis, who was one fight away from being cut, lost four of his last five UFC fights, and moved down to 155 lb for his next two matches after losing to Diaz. After that, Diaz lost a pair of three-round decisions at 170 lb in 2011 before moving back down to 155 lb for his next eight fights (5-3).

Diaz then moved back up to 170 lb in 2016 and took on Conor McGregor, who was moving all the way up from 145 lb. Diaz submitted McGregor in the second round before losing a decision in the rematch and has stayed at 170 lb since then, with his only win since submitting McGregor came against Anthony Pettis, who has spent most of his career at 155 lb. Diaz has 17 UFC fights at 155 lb (11-6), one at a 177 lb Catchweight (1-0), and eight at 170 lb (3-5). All three of his wins at 170 lb came against opponents who were either just moving up a weight class or about to drop down one. Five of Diaz’s last seven fights at 170 lb have gone the distance (1-4), with two of his last three decisions going five rounds. The only time he’s ever been finished at 170 lb in the UFC was due to the R3 doctor stoppage against Masvidal. Diaz has never knocked anybody out at 170 lb, but did have the 2010 TKO win at a 177 lb Catchweight, albeit against a dubious opponent.

All of Diaz’s 170 lb UFC Fights (doesn’t include the Catchweight match):

2021 R5 DEC L vs. Leon Edwards
2019 R3 TKO L vs. Jorge Masvidal
2019 R3 DEC W vs. Anthony Pettis
2016 R5 DEC L vs. Conor McGregor
2016 R2 SUB W vs. Conor McGregor
—Moved back down to 155 lb from 2011 to 2015—
2011 R3 DEC L vs. Rory McDonald
2011 R3 DEC L vs. Dong Hyun Kim
2010 R3 SUB W vs. Marcus Davis

This will be the 7th five-round fight of Diaz’s career and he went 2-4 in the first six, with three of those going the distance (0-3), one ending in a TKO (0-1), and the other two ending in submissions (2-0). Keep in mind, the first two of those five-round fights took place at 155 lb (1-1), while the last four were at 170 lb (1-3). He’s lost the last three five-round fights he’s been part of.

All of Diaz’s five-round UFC Fights:

2021 DEC L vs. Leon Edwards (170 lb)
2019 R3 TKO L vs. Jorge Masvidal (170 lb)
2016 DEC L vs. Conor McGregor (170 lb)
2016 R2 SUB W vs. Conor McGregor (170 lb)
2012 DEC L vs. Benson Henderson (155 lb)
2012 R2 SUB W vs. Jim Miller (155 lb)

Overall, Diaz is 37 years old and finally fighting out his current deal. Most of his UFC success has been down at 155 lb or taking on guys fighting up a weight class at 170 lb. Diaz is 0-5 in his last five fights where he got taken down more than once, and the last time he won a fight after allowing multiple takedowns was all the way back in 2009. While Diaz’s career striking numbers don’t jump off the page at 4.51 SSL/min and 3.73 SSA/min, if we just look at his last five fights since he moved back up to 170 lb, those numbers rise to 5.34 SSL/min and 5.41 SSA/min. Diaz averages 1.1 TDL/15 min, but has failed to land more than one takedown in a fight since 2009 and doesn't have any in his last two matches. He has just a 30% career takedown accuracy and only a 41% defense. With that said, he is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt and a dangerous submission threat on the ground, and will often invite opponents to join him on the mat.

Fight Prediction:

Diaz will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 76” reach. Diaz is one year younger than the 38-year-old Ferguson.

Both of these two are well past their prime, but Ferguson’s decline has appeared more rapid recently. They’ve both been historically known for their durability, although the whole world witnessed Ferguson’s soul leaving his body in his last fight as he got his face kicked in by Michael Chandler. He’s now moving up a weight class and both of those add a ton of uncertainty to this matchup. Ferguson also wasn’t expecting to take part in a five-round fight, while Diaz was, so that could also play a factor even if Ferguson is known for his cardio (so is Diaz). Ferguson hasn’t finished anybody in over three years and it’s been over seven years since Diaz landed a finish. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Ferguson slice Diaz up with an elbow and force a doctor stoppage, whereas Diaz historically hasn’t been much of a knockout threat, with his last knockout coming all the way back in 2013 and his second most recent in 2013. So even though Ferguson’s chin could be compromised at this point, Diaz is less likely to really expose it. And considering Ferguson has only been submitted once in his career, which was in 2009, it’s also unlikely we see Diaz submit him. That likely leaves Diaz reliant on winning a decision to pull off the upset. Diaz has also only been submitted once in his career, which was all the way back in 2006, and Ferguson hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017. So outside of a doctor stoppage, we don’t really see Ferguson finding a finish either. We see this fight going the full five rounds and ending in a close, high-volume decision that could go either way. While most people will be inclined to bet on Ferguson based on his activity and superior decision record, we actually kind of like Diaz to outlast him and take over in the later rounds to squeak out a win. Just keep in mind, this is an ultra high-variance spot with a ton of factors in play and nothing would really surprise us here.

Our favorite bet here is “Waiting on Props” at +X.

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DFS Implications:

Ferguson is massively underpriced on DraftKings at just $7,200 despite being the favorite, which will result in him being ridiculously popular. There’s little chance he gets left out of winning DraftKings lineups if he wins this fight, making the entire slate much more difficult when it comes to creating unique lineups. While Ferguson hasn’t topped 11 DraftKings points in his last three fights, despite two of those going three full rounds, this is a significantly easier matchup and a dream spot for him to score well. Just keep in mind, his last win was all the way back in 2019 and he’s now moving up a weight class after 155 lb Tony Ferguson got murdered in his last outing. It’s hard to know how Ferguson will look at 170 lb at this stage in his career, but the move in weight combined with the late opponent and round change makes this a higher variance spot. The odds imply Ferguson has a 54% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Diaz is also getting a much easier matchup than the one he had been preparing for and is also massively underpriced on DraftKings as the cheapest fighter on the slate despite being just a slight underdog. Working against him, he’s 0-3 in UFC five-round decisions and hasn’t finished anybody since 2016, when he submitted Conor McGregor, who was moving up from 145 lb. Diaz’s last knockout victory was all the way back in 2013, so in general he hasn’t been much of a finisher. Similar to McGregor, Ferguson is also moving up a weight class, and it’s been 11 years since Ferguson last competed at 170 lb. When you pair that with Ferguson’s rapid decline and his recent violent KO loss, there are a ton of variables in play here that could benefit Diaz. If he can pull off the upset, it’s almost impossible to see Diaz getting left out of the winning lineup at his dirt cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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