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Fighter Notes:
Manon Fiorot
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After just going pro in 2018, Fiorot will be making her UFC debut with a 5-1 record and on a five fight winning streak. Since losing her 2018 pro debut in a split decision, Fiorot has landed KOs in four of her five wins. Her fifth win came in a 2019 decision.
Each of her last three fights has ended quicker than the one before it and she seems to be constantly improving as a fighter. Fiorot fought three times in 2020 and ended up hitting for the cycle with KOs in each of the three rounds, slowly working her way down from the third to her first R1 finish in her most recent fight. If you turn down the contrast on your screen and squint hard enough, there are shades of vintage Vitor Belfort in her striking explosions.
Victoria Leonardo
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Leonardo went pro just one month before Fiorot in 2018, but has fought four more times as a pro. She will now be making her UFC debut following a R2 KO win on DWCS this past November. In that fight, she was able to finish her opponent through extended ground and pound. Leonardo had previously never knocked anyone out and seems to have pretty questionable striking, but she does have four submission wins on her record (three by Rear-Naked Choke and one by Armbar). Three of her submission wins came in R1.
Both of her losses have come early, with a 2020 R2 KO and a 2018 R1 Armbar Submission at the hands of UFC newcomer and fellow grappler Miranda Maverick. Leonardo’s striking leaves a lot to be desired.
Fight Prediction:
Fiorot will have a 2” height advantage in this fight.
Fiorot looks like she will have a massive striking advantage in this fight, while Leonardo will be looking to grapple and take the fight to the ground. As long as Fiorot can stay off her back, we’re looking for her to dominate Leonardo the same way she has her past few opponents. We think Fiorot has a great chance to end this fight early and like her ITD line at +230. You could also argue that you might as well play her KO line at +255. We won’t. But you could.
DFS Implications:
The far more impressive striker in this match, Fiorot has another gear she can go to (maybe two) once she really starts turning on her striking. She looks like she could potentially have a bright future in the UFC women’s Flyweight division. Because this is her first UFC fight, and she’s not a massive favorite, and her R1 win line isn’t out of control, we think that she could fly somewhat under the radar on this slate. With so many expensive options to choose from, we think people will have a tougher time going with a female fighter making her UFC debut over some of the other more proven commodities or big names. Fiorot looks like a strong leverage play for tournaments over some of the other high priced options.
The way this fight fails is if Leonardo is able to control Fiorot on the fence/ground for extended periods of time. We think Fiorot will prove to be too strong, fast and aggressive for Leonardo, but in an alternative universe where Leonardo somehow pulls off the submissions upset, you would have to think at her price she would most likely end up in the optimal lineup. However, in this universe we think you want to fade her.
Umar Nurmagomedov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)This fight was originally scheduled for October 24th but Nurmagomedov withdrew due to a staph infection. That was curiously the second UFC fight Nurmagomedov withdrew from last year and third fight he had booked that didn’t end up happening (one event was canceled due to COVID).
Now finally making his UFC debut with a perfect 12-0 pro record, Nurmagomedov (cousin of Khabib), hasn’t fought since November 2019.
Of his 12 career wins, he has one win by KO, six by submission, and six by decision. While two of his last three fights have ended in R1 submission wins, six of his last eight fights have ended in decisions. His last three early wins have all come by Rear-Naked Choke Submission.
Nurmagomedov is light on his feet and loves to throw a ton of slick question mark kicks. He’s never knocked anyone out with one, but they do keep his opponents guessing and make it tough for them to comfortably find their range against him.
Sergey Morozov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Also making his UFC debut and off an extended layoff, the former M-1 global champ Morozov is coming off a 25 minute decision victory, which avenged an earlier R1 KO loss to Josh Rettinghouse. Morozovhas won his last five fights with three of those coming early via KO (two in R1). His last two fights have both been scheduled to go five rounds, with one ending in a decision and the other ending in a R4 KO.
His only loss in his last eight fights came against UFC stud Movsar Evloev, who submitted Morozov in the third round of their 2018 match. Of his 16 career wins, eight have come by KO, three have come by submission, and the remaining five have been by decision. Three of his four losses have come early, including one by KO and two by Rear-Naked Choke Submission.
Fight Prediction:
Nurmagomedov will have a 2” height advantage in this match.
Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite on the slate at -525 and the oddsmakers have set the decision line at -175, implying there’s a 60% chance this one goes the distance. That all aligns with what we think is the most likely outcome, which is that Nurmagomedov wins a decision here. If it does end early, it would likely come by a Nurmagomedov Rear-Naked Choke Submission in the first two rounds.
DFS Implications:
As the most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate, Nurmagomedov will need to not only win, but also be a top two scorer among the high priced fighters to be useful in DFS. It’s certainly possible, but we don’t think it’s the most likely scenario as there are other fighters with better matchups. We also expect him to receive a name recognition ownership bump, making him an even more intriguing tournament fade. We think being slightly under the field on him is the play, but he is a talented, explosive fighter, with finishing ability so we wouldn’t recommend completely fading him.
As the biggest dog on the slate, Morozov has his work cut out for him. He has been on an impressive run lately and the majority of his wins have come early, but we think he’s simply a contrarian tournament play that you sprinkle into your exposure.
Mike Davis
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After being forced to withdraw from two scheduled matches against Giga Chikadze in 2020, Davis now hasn’t fought since his October 2019 near homicide of Thomas Gifford. Davis showcased his explosive striking in the one-sided affair and left a face down corpse in his wake. It seemed like both Gifford’s corner and the ref were willing to sacrifice Gifford to the UFC Gods that night as they allowed the fight to go on much longer than it needed to, despite the life-shortening beating Gifford was taking. Amazingly, Davis took the fight on less than a week’s notice, he did look to slow down a little late—but only to the extent that he threw less face altering strikes.
That was just Davis’ second UFC fight. In his UFC debut, the UFC didn’t do him any favors as they paired him up against Gilbert Burns. After trading some strikes early, Burns was able to control Davis on the ground in the second round and really just ware on him after taking his back, before eventually submitting him via Rear-Naked Choke late in the second. That was the only time Davis has been finished in his 10 fight pro career.
Both of Davis’ UFC fights have been at 155 lb, however he’s also fought at 145 lb earlier in his career, including when he fought Sodiq Yusuff on DWCS in 2018. Yusuff ended up winning a hard fought decision, outlanding Davis 111-77 in really significant strikes. In a violent brawl, Yusuff was able to successfully mix in low leg kicks, really tearing up Davis’ lead leg, and nearly finished Davis towards the end of the first and third rounds. That losing decision effort was the only time Davis has ever been to a decision and his only other career loss aside from the one to Burns.
Mason Jones
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Jones will be making his UFC debut following back to back R1 KO victories on Cage Warriors, where he won both the vacant 155 lb and 170 lb belts. With a perfect 10-0 record as a pro, the BJJ black belt also has a background in kickboxing and Judo, where he also holds black belts, and enters the UFC with a fair amount of hype. All of his pro fights outside of the most recent 170 lb title fight have been at 155 lb.
Of his 10 wins, seven have come early, including four by KO and three by submission. Four of his wins have come in the first round, one in the second, and two in the third.
Jones certainly doesn’t lack confidence, calling on Dana White and Sean Selby to "Find the biggest, deadliest lightweight monster you can find - because I'm a lightweight guy - and I'll go out there and dismantle him.”
Fight Prediction:
Davis will have a 2” height advantage but both fighters share a 72” reach.
This sets up for a potential firefight between two aggressive strikers. Depending on how long this lasts, it would not be surprising if this fight leads the slate for the most combined strikes landed. The line opened with Davis as a -175 favorite, but we’ve since seen it drop to -160. Mike Davis has definitely fought tougher competition at times, but he also lost both those matches. We still give the edge to Davis in this one, but Jones could surprise people. Davis’ ITD line is set at +195 (32%), while Jones’ is +420 (18%). For what it’s worth, the oddsmakers still think this one has a better chance than not to end up going the distance, setting the decision line at -135 (54%).
DFS Implications:
Seven of Davis’ eight career wins have come by KO, but he also had a Kimura submission win in 2019. He ranks second on this slate after Mounir Lazzez for average significant strikes landed per minute. He also landed two takedowns in his last fight so there’s reason to think he can boost his scores with the occasional grappling stats. We think this sets up as a striking bonanza and whoever wins should put up a solid score. Based on how expensive he is, Davis will need to outscore the majority of the other top fighters to end up in the optimal lineup, but if he wins and this plays out the way we think it will, he has a decent chance to accomplish that.
Jones comes into this one as the first fighter since Conor McGregor in 2012 to simultaneously hold two Cage Warriors belts, after he won the vacant 155 lb belt followed by the 170 lb belt in 2020. He’s a solid striker, with black belts in BJJ, kickboxing and Judo, who seems eager to prove himself on the big stage. He’ll also mix in occasional takedowns to add to his DFS upside. We think both of these fighters are coming into this fight with the goal of making a name for themselves and expect it to be an absolute brawl. If Jones wins this fight, it would be surprising for him not to make it into the optimal lineup on both DFS sites. His current moneyline is +140, implying a 40% chance he wins. That feels just a little bit on the high side, and we might set his chances closer to 35%. Either way, he’s definitely a very live dog in this potential shootout.
Francisco Figueiredo
1st UFC Fight (0-0)The younger brother of Deiveson Figueiredo, Francisco is sure to come into his UFC debut with way more hype than he deserves. Deiveson is already setting the bar high, saying that in three to four fights Francisco will be one of the best in the UFC. He laughably went as far as comparing him to Israel Adesanya, so you know, no pressure.
Funny enough, Francisco is coming off a draw in his last fight after he was deducted a point for one of the most blatant fence grabs of all time—not exactly a grand entrance. He did have back to back KO victories prior to that, although one of those came against a 6-12 opponent.
Francisco enters this fight with an 11-3-1 record, with 10 of his 11 wins coming early. He has three KO victories and seven by submission. Two of his three losses have also come early, with a 2011 R3 KO and a 2012 R2 Arm-Triangle Choke, but he hasn’t been finished in the last 8+ years. His last four wins have all come early, including two in the first round.
Surely the UFC would love the press that comes along with a second successful Figueiredo, which is likely why they paired him up with Rivera.
Jerome Rivera
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a R2 KO loss against Tyson Nam in his September short notice UFC debut, Rivera is a lanky submission specialist who uses his length to try and keep opponents at bay. He showed a suspect striking defense against Nam and did not look very comfortable standing and trading.
A little over a month before his debut loss, Rivera won a decision on the Contender Series, where he only landed 48 SS and went 0/5 on takedowns with 0 submission attempts. However, seven of his 10 wins have come by submission. All three of his losses have also come early (two KOs & one Submission).
Rivera fought his debut at 135 lb where he looked skinny, but will somehow be moving down to 125 lb for this fight. Note: He was slow to weigh in and didn’t look particularly great.
Fight Prediction:
Rivera will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Generally the smart move is to fade the hype, which would be Figueiredo in this case, but we have also been unimpressed with what we’ve seen out of Rivera so far. We think Figueiredo will have the advantage on the feet and it’s anyone’s guess how it plays out on the ground. Both fighters have the majority of their wins by submission, but they have also each only been submitted once in their careers. It’s possible that both respect the other’s ground game to the point that this turns into a striking match as we sometimes see. We think Figueiredo either gets a later round KO or more likely wins in a decision, but this is a tricky one to predict.
You could consider Figueiredo’s KO line at +385, his R2 KO line at +1000, his submission line at +545 or his decision line at +215. Nothing really stands out as exceptional value given the uncertainty for how this one plays out.
DFS Implications:
Figueiredo comes in with more hype than he deserves, which automatically makes him feel like a bad tournament play. He’s definitely overpriced on FanDuel, but he’s at least worth a look on DraftKings, where he’s relatively cheaper. Rivera looked extremely hittable in his UFC debut and he seems like someone you want to attack in DFS when you can play a striker against him. We honestly don’t know a ton about Figueiredo after watching limited tape on him, so it’s hard to get too excited about him. After watching his last fight however, nothing really blew us away. For us, playing him is really more of a bet against RIvera than a bet on Figueiredo. We think you’ll want to mix in a little, but be under the field on him.
Jerome Rivera looked pretty bad in his UFC debut. He didn’t respond well to being struck and never got any sort of ground game going. Maybe it was just Octagon jitters and he’ll come out looking much better, but that’s essentially all you can hope for. The main thing he has going for him is that he looks like a low-owned contrarian tournament play to leverage the people chasing the Figueiredo name. He looks like a better play on FanDuel, where he’s relatively cheaper and can score from submission attempts.
Dalcha Lungiambula
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Lungiambula had been scheduled to fight Roberson on December 12th but the fight got pushed back a week because Roberson had COVID. Then it got canceled again when Roberson tested positive AGAIN soon before the rescheduled match. Then, Dalcha was scheduled to fight Isi Fitikefu but he withdrew and Perez stepped in. This will be Lungiambula first fight at 185 lb, where the Roberson fight was also set to take place. There was talk about moving it up to 205 lb but that never materialized. Because the Roberson fight was canceled just before weigh-ins, Dalcha did actually weigh in just in case and had made weight for what’s its worth. Now he’ll be adding 20 lb back on in a month. He now hasn't fought in 14 months following the R3 KO loss to Magomed Ankalaev.
Lungiambula won his 2019 UFC debut against an also debuting Dequan Townsend, who took the fight on just a few days notice after Lungiambula’s original opponent dropped out. Lungiambula knocked out Townsend in the third round, and despite only landing 32 significant strikes he was still able to score 108 DraftKings points on the back of four takedowns, a knockdown and eight minutes plus of control time.
His second UFC fight was far less successful. Lungiambula went up against an extremely tough opponent in 14-1 Magomed Ankalaev, who dominated the fight before knocking Lungiambula out in the third round with a highlight reel finish. Lungiambula landed just six head-scratching strikes in the match, as he struggled to close the distance against an opponent who had a 7” height advantage. Despite the height difference, Lungiambula actually had a 1” reach advantage in that fight, but Ankalaev clearly had an advantage in the leg reach and was also able to control Lungiambula on the ground.
Lungiambula didn’t turn pro until he was 29 years old. Now 35, he only has 12 pro fights on his 10-2 record. He had won six in a row prior to the loss in his last fight, with four of those wins coming early.
As you may have guessed by looking at him, Lungiambula is an extremely powerful striker. Five of his 10 career wins have come by KO, including three of his last four. He also has one win by submission and four by decision. Both of his two career losses came early—one by KO and one by submission.
Markus Perez
7th UFC Fight (2-4)After winning his first 10 pro fights and then alternating wins and losses over his first five UFC fights, Perez is coming off consecutive losses and his first time being finished early in his career. He got knocked out in R1 by Dricus Du Plessis, who was making his UFC debut.
Perez’s two UFC wins have both come by submission, with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke and a R2 Anaconda Choke. Prior to joining the UFC, Perez was undefeated in 10 fights, with seven early finishes, including three KO’s and four submissions. He was also able to end five of those in R1, including a R1 Arm-Triangle submission over Ian Heinisch in Perez’ last fight prior to joining the UFC. Perez primarily looks to end his opponents with submissions.
Fight Prediction:
Perez will have a 5” height advantage, but Lungiambula will have a 3” reach advantage.
Lungiambula’s Win by KO line is notably near a coin flip at +105 (46%), while Perez’s ITD is at +270 (25%). The line on this fight to end early is -240 (66%), third highest on the slate. We lean towards Lungiambula to win this one either in a decision or with an early KO, but if Perez can get Lungiambula to the ground, it’s possible he submits him.
DFS Implications:
If this fight ends early, as the odds suggest, then there’s a reasonable chance the winner ends up in optimal lineups. However, both fighters are typically low volume strikers so they would likely either need the finish to come in the first round or to add on a decent amount of grappling stats. This sort of feels like a fight that could start slow, but it could also end at a moment’s notice, so you’ll likely be holding your breath if you fade it.
Lungiambula showed the ability to score well later in fights with a R3 KO over Townsend that still scored 108 DraftKings points. He was able to keep the score useful with four takedowns and over 8 minutes of control time in that fight before ending things in the third.
Perez has struggled to score well outside of his lone R1 victory. His R1 win odds in this fight are +525, giving him just a 15% likelihood of getting it done here. He’s abandoned his normal Joker routine at face-offs, so maybe we’re seeing a new Perez? Either way, he looks like a guy you just want to sprinkle into your tournament allocation.
Su Mudaerji
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off the quickest win of his career, in a 44 second R1 KO against a non-UFC talent, Mudaerji is getting right back inside the Octagon less than two months later. Prior to his last fight, he was coming off a 15 month layoff following his first UFC win, which was also his first fight to end in a decision.
Mudaerji is now 2-1 in the UFC and 13-4 as a pro. His first 15 fights all ended early, with him coming out victorious in 11 of them. Ten of those 11 early wins came by KO, including eight in R1. His lone submission victory came in R3 of a 2016 match. He appears most vulnerable on the ground and all four of his career losses have been by submission—2016 R1 Armbar, 2018 R3 Choke, 2018 R2 Choke, and a 2018 R2 Armbar. Luckily for him, this fight should remain on the feet.
He made his UFC debut in November 2018 against a motivated Louis Smolka. In what was Smolka’s first fight back with the UFC, he submitted Mudaerji with a R2 Armbar after controlling the fight up to that point.
Mudaerji bounced back from the loss with a dominating decision win (30-26, 30-26, 30-25) over Andre Soukhamthath in his most recent fight. Soukhamthath could be heard saying he broke his left hand after the first round, which obviously hurt his chances. Following the loss, Soukhamthath was released by the UFC leaving with a record of 2-5. Soukhamthath has never been finished in any of his 22 pro fights and interestingly his only UFC fight to end early was a R2 KO of Luke Sanders in 2017. Anyways back to Mudaerji.
Very light on his feet, Mudaerji is a quick striker who throws lots of side and spinning kicks. He uses his length well to come in and out of range, making it tougher on his opponents to land strikes on him.
He fought his first two UFC fights at Bantamweight (135 lb), but then moved down to Flyweight (125 lb) for his last fight, where he remains. He did fight at both weight classes earlier in his career, but he looked pretty lean at 135 lb, so it’s a little crazy he can even make 125 lb.
Zarrukh Adashev
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Adashev was relieved of his duties quickly into his short notice UFC debut back in June, which lasted just 32 seconds before Nam knocked him out. With just five pro fights on his record, it’s unclear what exactly Adashev is doing in the UFC.
Four of his five fights have ended early and he already has two R1 losses bookending his young career. He does have two KO victories in Bellator, but those came against generic opponents who entered with records of 0-1 and 3-1. He looks more like he should be delivering pizzas than punches and we don’t see this ending well for him.
Fight Prediction:
Mudaerji will have a 3” height advantage and a massive 7” reach advantage.
We don’t know what Mudaerji did to make the matchmakers love him so much, but they continue to pitch him softballs. This sets up for another Mudaerji early KO and the oddsmakers agree, setting the Mudaerji ITD line at a silly -185 (61%) and his R1 win line at a slate leading +140 (39%).
DFS Implications:
This sets up as another smash spot for Mudaerji, who could potentially benefit from the new 60 second bonus on DraftKings with another quick finish. He has the highest R1 KO chances on the slate and gets a dream matchup here. Keep in mind that he’s typically reliant on striking and early finishes to score well in DFS. We do love his chances of getting it done, but it’s extremely unlikely he scores enough at his price to be useful in the event this ends in a decision. At his price, he’ll not only need an early win, but also need to outscore the other top priced fighters.
Adashev appears to be one of the worst plays on the slate, so you could argue his ultra low ownership offers tournament winning upside on the off chance he pulls off a miracle. Large slates like this are often won when at least one gross play does the unthinkable and knocks off a big favorite. We don’t think Adashev is the one to do it, but he certainly fits the bill.
Ricky Simon
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Simon was originally scheduled to fight Brian Kelleher back on September 5th, but was forced to withdraw after one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID. That fight was rescheduled for January 16th, but Kelleher then tested positive for COVID and was pulled. So Simon was pushed back to Wednesday's card and Pirrello was announced as a late replacement on January 7th.
Simon went off for 14 takedowns in his 2017 DWCS decision win, but it still wasn’t enough to immediately land him in the UFC. He went on to fight twice after that in the LFA, with a five round decision win followed by a R1 KO victory. It was at that point the UFC brought him in and gave him a tough challenge in his debut against Merab Dvalishvili. Simon officially submitted Dvalishvili at the end of the third round, but there was never a tap, the horn sounded and Dvalishvili got up shortly after. It was a strange scene.
Simon followed that up with back to back decision wins, seemingly gaining confidence and scoring more points with each win (79 > 89 > 101). However, Simon got knocked out for the first time in his career against Urijah Faber just 46 seconds into the first round of their 2019 match. He then went on to lose a decision to Rob Font later that year.
Following the pair of tough losses, Simon bounced back with a decision win over Ray Borg in May 2020. The performance was good for 107 DraftKings points as he tallied 93 total strikes, 67 significant, 7 takedowns and over five minutes of control time.
Gaetano Pirrello
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut following an extended layoff, Pirrello hasn’t fought since October 2019. His last four fights have all ended with KOs (3-1), including three in the first round and one in the second.
Pirrello enters the UFC with a 15-5-1 pro record, having gone to just three decisions. Of his 15 wins, 14 have come early, with 11 KOs and three submissions. Four of his five losses have also come early, including one KO and three submissions. Impressively, 13 of his 21 fights have ended in R1 (11-2). Five of his 15 wins came against opponents who entered with a record of .500 or worse and we weren’t overly impressed by any of the competitors we saw.
Fight Prediction:
Pirrello will have a 1” height advantage in this fight and both fighters are 28 years old.
Pirrello looks to be a striker who has relied on beating up a lower level of opponents in the past. We don’t think he’ll be able to handle Simon’s grappling game once he gets his hands on him and barring Pirrello landing a perfect strike on Simon, we expect this to be a pretty one sided affair. Look for Simon to beat up Pirrello on the ground and either win a convincing decision or finish the newcomer on the mat. Simon’s ITD line is +155 (37%) while his decision line is +135 (40%).
DFS Implications:
Simon has historically scored well in decision wins through a combination of strikes and takedowns. Ironically, his worst DraftKings score in a win came in his only UFC “finish” against Dvalishvili as the third round ended. Simon seems to have everything going for him in this one. He’s a well rounded veteran who can score well in DFS, even in decisions. He opened as a massive favorite with the line continuing to move in his favor. And he’s going up against a guy making his short notice UFC debut AND coming off an extended layoff. Simon has landed 13 takedowns across his last two fights, and has landed at least four in his last four fights that lasted longer 46 seconds. He also showed a crazy takedown ceiling, landing 14 in 2017 on the Contender Series. Simon sets up as one of the strongest plays on the slate.
Pirrello seems to have the deck stacked against him, but you could argue that based on his history of finishes he has a puncher's chance to pull off a miracle. He’ll clearly be a contrarian play with tournament winning upside if he does win. His ITD line is set at +635 (13%) although any win at his price could be enough to be useful. His moneyline is +360, implying a 21% chance he wins. Honestly, that seems a little high.
Tom Breese
8th UFC Fight (5-2)After taking nearly two years off following a 2018 R1 KO victory, Breese went 1-1 in 2020 with both fights also ending in R1 KOs. After losing to Brendan Allen in February, Breese made short work of UFC newcomer K.B. Bhullar, putting him down with a stiff jab. Impressively, 8 of his 12 career wins have come in the first round.
Breese impressively began his pro career with nine straight early wins, including six in R1, and then a 10th win that ended in a decision. Sean Strickland ended his 10 fight winning streak in a 2016 decision. After almost two years away following the loss, Breese was able to bounce back with a R1 KO in 2018, but then we saw another 21 month layoff before his most recent loss.
Breese didn’t fight in 2017 after dropping out of a fight the day of for personal reasons and then suffering a knee injury a month later. He also didn’t fight in 2019 after having four fights scheduled just to be canceled. He has a history of canceling fights for various medical/personal issues, so that’s always something to keep an eye on.
Breese moved up from 170 lb to 185 lb beginning with his 2018 win against then 40-year-old Daniel Kelley, who came in on a two fight skid. Honestly, that fight looked like a mismatch intended to get Breese’s career back on track. In the back half of R1, Breese punched Kelley in the face. Kelley immediately covered his eye and looked like he might protest an eye poke. However, the ref said fight on, so Kelley retreated, while taking a few more punches and then quickly crumpled to the ground with the ref immediately stopping the fight. Breese has gone 1-1 since then.
Breese is now 12-2 in his pro career with all but two of his fights ending early. However, now he gets an opponent who has consistently gone to decisions.
Omari Akhmedov
14th UFC Fight (8-4-1)After 17 of his first 19 pro fights ended early, Akhmedov’s last seven have all ended in decisions. And his last nine fights have made it to the third round. He only has two early wins since joining the UFC—a R1 KO in his 2013 debut and a 2015 R1 KO due to knee injury—his other 10 early finishes all came before he joinied the UFC. He’s been finished early three time himself—a 2016 R3 KO against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, a 2015 R3 KO against Sergio Moraes and a 2014 R1 Guillotine Choke Submission against Gunnar Nelson.
Fight Prediction:
Breese will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters have a 73” reach.
Breese should have the speed advantage, the main question is if he can end Akhmedov’s decision streak. He’s been an incredibly tough guy to put away. The oddsmakers have set Breese’s ITD line at +175 (34%) while Akhmedov’s ITD line is +540 (15%). We’re leaning this one ends in a Breese decision win, which can be had at +250.
DFS Implications:
This fight was originally on last Saturday’s card but got bumped back. Breese had been priced at $8,200/$17 while Akhmedov was $8,000/$15. Now just a few days later, Breese has been priced up to $8,700/$19 and Akhmedov is $7,500/$13. That’s a bigger move than you would expect based on the odds, which had opened at -150/+130 for the last card but shifted to -160/+140 for this one.
Breese has been a R1 KO or bust play in DFS so far in his UFC career. His current R1 win line is set at +375, which would give him just a 20% chance of returning value if that trend continues. We think he ends up being over owned by the field in what appears to be a bad matchup from a DFS scoring perspective. We’re looking to be under the field on Breese on both sites, but it’s hard to completely fade his upside.
Akhmedov seems like the type of guy who you want to both avoid playing in DFS and avoid playing his opponents. He hasn’t topped 68 DraftKings points in his last five fights, despite winning three of those. He did score 100 points back in 2017 against Alhassan, bolstered by six takedowns, 99 total strikes and over six minutes of control time. The most likely way we think he wins here, would be to control Breese on the ground and rack up takedowns and control time again. That would be more useful on DraftKings than on FanDuel, so we think he’s a better play over there.
Lerone Murphy
3rd UFC Fight (1-0-1)The undefeated Murphy comes in with a 9-0-1 pro record, with his 2019 UFC debut ending in a split decision draw. Murphy was taken down six times on eight attempts in that fight showing a potential weakness in his game. He bounced back from the minor hiccup, in his previously perfect record, with a R1 KO upset of Ricardo Ramos, who entered the fight with an impressive 14-2 record of his own.
Murphy started his pro career at 155 lb but dropped down to 145 lb in 2018. All six of his KO victories came in the first round. Three of his eight wins prior to joining the UFC notably came against opponents with losing records.
We’ve only seen four rounds of UFC action from Murphy, but so far he’s looked like a low volume striker with good hands, but with a very limited ground game. We think he’s a R1 or bust play and is going against an opponent who’s only been finished twice in a lengthy career.
Douglas Silva de Andrade
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Andrade joined the UFC in 2014 with an eye-popping 22-0 pro record. Of those 22 wins, 18 were by KO and one was by submission. Since then, he’s gone 4-3 with three of his four wins coming in decisions and the fourth in a R3 KO.
Andrade was fighting at 145 lb before joining the UFC, where he stayed for his UFC debut, but he then dropped to 135 lb after losing his debut to Zubaira Tukhugov (who fought Murphy to a draw in Murphy’s debut). He won his first two fights at 135 lb, but lost his third to Rob Font, who submitted Andrade in R2 with a Guillotine Choke. That was the first time Andrade had ever been finished early. He bounced back with a decision win over Marlon Vera before getting matched up with current Bantamweight champ Petr Yan.
Yan handed Andrade his first KO loss due to a corner stoppage after the second round. Following the loss and with a 3-2 record at 135 lb in the UFC, Andrade decided to move back up to 145 lb where he beat Renan Barao in a decision.
Andrade is now coming off a 14 month layoff. He did have a fight scheduled for March 2020 against Movsar Evloev, but Andrade ended up withdrawing from the fight due to injury. Now 35 years old, it will be interesting to see how Andrade looks after the extended layoff.
Fight Prediction:
Murphy will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
It looks like there’s a reasonable chance this one ends in a disappointing decision, but clearly Murphy is a KO threat in every fight he’s part of. The oddsmakers have set his ITD line at -105 (48%) and his KO line at +110 (45%), so clearly they think he has a great chance to close the show early. That seems a little aggressive if you asked us and we think the value is in the Murphy Wins by Decision line at +240.
DFS Implications:
Murphy is a solid striker on his feet, but with four of his 10 fights ending in decisions, including three of his last five, he’s far from a safe bet in DFS to hit value. While the oddsmakers are implying he has close to a 50% chance of getting the finish, that seems a little high to us. We think he’s a R1 KO or bust play at his price. His R1 win line is +225 (29%), while his R1 KO line is +350 (21%). Honestly, it’s little surprising those lines are that far apart considering he’s never submitted anyone.
Andrade has never scored well in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 66, 75, 89 and 64 points in his four UFC wins. And the 89 point performance came against an old Enrique Briones who has lost his last four fights. Now 35 years old, coming off an extended layoff, and going against an undefeated opponent, this looks like a tough spot for Andrade. While his low projected ownership, cheap DFS price tag and historical finishing ability make for some theoretical upside, we don’t love this spot for him. It makes sense to have a little exposure to him, but that’s as far as we’re looking to go.
Tyson Nam
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Nam has bounced back and forth between 125 lb and 135 lb throughout his career. Since 2012, his records at the two weight classes are nearly identical as he's 4-4 at 135 lb and 4-3-1 and 125 lb. He entered the UFC at 125 lb but after losing to Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France in decisions he moved up to 135 lb. He landed impressive KO's against lower level opponents in Adashev and Rivera at 135 lb but will now be moving back down to 125 lb and gets a tougher matchup in Schnell than his last two cupcakes. The main takeaway from that is both of his UFC KO’s have been at 135 lb, but this fight will be at 125 lb.
This matchup against Schnell was originally scheduled to take place back on September 12th before Schell had to withdraw right before weigh-ins due to a weight cutting issue. Then it was scheduled for December 12th, but Schnell withdrew again. Hopefully the third time’s the charm. After Schnell dropped out of the September 12th card, Nam got pushed back a week and Rivera stepped in on short notice.
Prior to his recent pair of early KOs, Nam had looked like a decision fighter with four of his previous five matches ending with the judges. Now that he’s landed back to back knockouts in the first six minutes of each fight, people may be viewing him in a different light. However, in reality, nothing has changed. He is who we thought he was.
Nam is and always has been a KO or bust striker, who’s exclusively fought standing up in the UFC. Only one of his four UFC opponents has even attempted a takedown on him, which was Kai Kara-France who went 0 for 4. Nam has only been finished early three times in 32 pro fights—all three by KO. The first two times were in 2006 and 2008, and then most recently in 2013 against Marlon Moraes. Since the KO loss to Moraes, Nam has gone 15 fights over 7+ years without being finished early. He has also never been submitted, which is important to note in this matchup against Schnell.
Matt Schnell
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Seemingly struggling with the weight cut down to 125 lb lately, it will be important to keep an eye on Schnell during weigh ins—assuming he actually makes it to weigh ins this time. It’s a little surprising, considering that he has fought almost his entire career at 125 lb. His only fights up at 135 lb were a 2016 R1 KO loss to Rob Font and a 2019 R1 Submission win over Louis Smolka.
Coming off a 13 month layoff, we last saw Schnell getting knocked out in the first round of his December 2019 match against Alexandre Pantoja.
Schnell’s last 3 fights have ended in R1, as have five of total seven UFC matches. He got knocked out in R1 of his first two UFC fights against Rob Font and Hector Sandoval. Schnell resuscitated his young UFC career with a pair of decision wins, followed by a pair of R1 Triangle Choke Submission wins, before his most recent R1 KO loss to Pantoja.
Schnell is a submission specialist, and while he does have two career KO wins, they both came prior to joining the UFC. Also one of those was against an opponent who now holds a 1-12 “pro” record and the other opponent entered with a 5-4 record.
Fight Prediction:
Schnell will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also six years younger than the 37-year-old Nam.
This appears to be a better matchup for Nam to capitalize on Schnell’s weaknesses than the other way around. Nam is purely looking to stand and strike and Schnell’s last three losses have all been R1 KOs where he was violently put to sleep. Schnell, on the other hand, looks to finish fights on the ground with submissions, and Nam has never been submitted in 32 pro fights—and has yet to be taken down in the UFC.
Nam’s confidence appears to be at an all time high, and this sets up as another good spot for him to get a KO. The oddsmakers agree, and have set the Nam ITD line at +145 (38%) and his Wins by KO line at +155 (37%). In comparison, the Schnell ITD line is +335 (22%) and his Submission line is +520 (15%). We’ll say Nam likely knocks Schnell out either in the late first or early second.
DFS Implications:
Without the volume to score well on striking alone and with no ground game stats to boost his scores, Nam is reliant on an early finish to score well. His early R2 KO of Rivera in his last fight still only scored 95 DraftKings points, although the timing of it was extremely unfortunate from a DFS scoring perspective. That could actually help to keep his ownership a little lower, as had he finished the fight either a little sooner or a little later it would have scored better.
Nam has several things going for him here against Schnell. The first and most notable is that Schnell’s last three losses have all come by R1 KO. Second, Schnell now hasn’t fought in 13 months and extended layoffs are generally a red flag. Third, Schnell has already struggled to make weight for this fight so a tough weight cut is more likely than normal. And finally, this will be the third time Nam has prepared to fight Schnell. So he had ample time to thoroughly study all of Schnell’s tricks to try and go for submissions and takedowns.
Schnell seems like the flashier of the two fighters and will aggressively strike with opponents while trying to set up takedowns and eventually submissions. This approach often gets him into trouble, but is ideal when we’re discussing fights to target for DFS. As the cheaper of the two fighters in DFS and with R1 wins in two of his last three fights, we think Schnell could command a similar amount of DFS ownership as Nam, despite having significantly worse odds for landing the finish.
The moneyline odds between the two fighters are likely to throw people off. It’s important to note that Schnell put up absolutely wretched scores in his two decision victories, and it’s not as though he’s a min priced fighter. He would need to put up a decent score in a win to be useful, which appears it would require an early finish. So it’s really more important to compare the ITD odds (+335/22% vs. +145/38%) opposed to the moneyline odds of (-130/53% vs. +110/45%)
Viviane Araujo
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming in 9-2 as a pro and 3-1 in the UFC, Araujo beat Montana De La Rosa in a decision last September after suffering a decision loss to Jessica Eye in her previous match.
Araujo started her pro career at 115 lb, but jumped all the way up to the Bantamweight division (135 lb) for her 2019 UFC debut, although she only weighed in at 131 lb. Clearly undersized, but unwilling to turn down any opportunity to break into the UFC, Araujo beat the odds as a +230 underdog and landed a R3 KO to win the match. Following the win she dropped down to 125 lb moving forward. Her last three fights have all ended in decisions, after her first eight pro fights all ended early. Three of her nine pro wins have been by KO and four have been by submission. Three of her four submission wins were by Armbar. She’s been finished early once herself, which came in a 2017 R1 KO in her fourth pro fight.
A BJJ black belt, Araujo is a crisp striker who’s very light on her feet. In her four UFC fights, Araujo has only been taken down once on 14 attempts and holds an impressive 92% takedown defense.
Roxanne Modafferi
10th UFC Fight (4-5)Now 38 years old, Modafferi has alternated wins and losses over her last nine fights and is coming off a win. Her last six fights have all ended in decisions as have her last eight losses. She hasn’t been finished early since 2011, when she was submitted in the third round via Rear-Naked Choke. In her 42 pro fights, she has only been finished early in 4 of her 17 losses—once by KO (2010 R3 KO by Slam) and three times by submission (2006 R1 Kimura, 2009 R1 Armbar & 2011 Rear-Naked Choke).
Of her 25 pro wins, nine have come early—including four KOs and five submissions. Her last six fights have all ended in decisions.
Of note, Modafferi’s impressive-on-paper win against Maycee Barber came when Barber tore her ACL to start R2 and was dead in the water for the rest of the fight. Had it not been for the injury, it looked like Barber would have won the fight and Modafferi’s record would look a lot different with her having lost three of her last four fights and four of her last six.
Fight Prediction:
Modafferi will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
We like Araujo to command this fight both on the feet and the ground, although Modafferi has surprised us at times in the past. The savvy veteran has proven that looks can be deceiving, but at 38 years old, it’s fair to wonder how many years she has left. We like Araujo to win a decision here, but if she showed off her BJJ black belt skills and submitted Modafferi on the mat we wouldn’t be shocked.
While Araujo’s crisp striking is often discussed, she actually has more wins by submission than KO. Conveniently, Modafferi has only been knocked out once, but has been submitted three times. We think the Araujo Wins by Submission line is a little too wide at +900, even though we are still expecting this one to end in a decision.
DFS Implications:
This sets up as a good spot for Araujo to potentially land a high number of strikes and takedowns against Modafferi, who’s absorbed an average of 4.96 ss/min and has just a 36% takedown defense. However, Araujo would either need to completely fill up the box score or get a finish to pay off at her price. And this looks like another tough spot for Araujo to end things early based on Modafferi’s track record. It’s definitely not impossible and we like Araujo as a fighter, but it seems like she’s merely a contrarian play who’s price should keep her ownership in check with other higher upside plays on the slate.
Modafferi is either fully embracing the goofily dressed, old white lady hustle, reminiscent of Woody Harrelson in White Men Can’t Jump, or else she’s legit off her rocker. Who’s to say? Despite three of her last four wins ending in decisions Modafferi has managed to score 96, 95, 109 and 112 DraftKings points in her last four victories. She appears to be a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system, as she typically racks up a decent amount of control time and a large number of strikes that don’t register as significant. She’ll likely go under the radar as the DFS community could be slow to adjust to the DraftKings rule changes.
While we’re not predicting her to win, if she does win she’ll very likely score well even in a decision. At her price, she would very likely end up in optimal DraftKings lineups with a win based largely on the new scoring. She’s not as good of a play on FanDuel, but she is relatively cheaper. She would likely need both a win and the fighters priced around her to fail to be in play over there, assuming she doesn't get an early finish.
While the oddsmakers are giving Modafferi roughly a 26% chance to win this fight, we’re expecting her ownership to be significantly under that. She was owned at just a 13% clip in her last fight and 9% in the one before that. She sets up as a cheap low-owned, high-risk play with sneaky upside if she can pull off the massive upset.
Ike Villanueva
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Appropriately nicknamed “Hurricane Ike”, every UFC fight Villanueva has been part of has been a complete disaster. He made his UFC debut at Heavyweight, and was clearly undersized, giving up 20 lb and 3” of height to Sherman. Sherman mauled him in the first round, before finishing him less than a minute into the second with a TKO. However, Sherman has since been flagged by the USADA after a positive test and that fight will soon be overturned to a No Contest.
Villanueva moved down to 205 lb for his second UFC fight and managed to get caught with a spinning heel kick to the head right of the bat. He then absorbed a series of violent knees to the face inside the Muay Thai Clinch of Jordan Wright. Split open by one of the knees, the doctor stopped the fight just 91 seconds into the first round.
Villanueva’s last six fights have all ended early (4-2)—all by KO—including five in R1 and one in R2. He has also been submitted in 5 of his 11 career losses, but the last one came in 2016 against Trevin Giles in the third round via Arm-Triangle Choke. Before that you have to go back to 2012 when Villanueva lost back to back fights by Armbar submission. He was also finished with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke in 2010 and a R1 Guillotine Choke in 2009. He has never submitted anyone himself and all 14 of his early wins came by KO.
In a recent interview, Villanueva said all the right things, talking about how this is a do-or-die opportunity for him and that he knows Moreira will be looking for the early takedown, which is essential for him to defend. He seems motivated to turn around his UFC career before it’s too late, and having his first loss to Sherman soon overturned has apparently given him some increased reason for optimism. Nearing his 37th birthday, Villanueva’s margin for error is razor thin.
Vinicius Moreira
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Moreira is nothing, if not consistent. He’s had three UFC fights and three first round losses. After landing a R2 Triangle Choke Submission win in 2018 on DWCS, Moreira somehow came into the UFC 9-1, with eight wins by submission and one by KO. In his UFC debut, he proceeded to get exposed by one-dimensional power puncher, Alonzo Menefield, who knocked him out less than four minutes into the first round.
Eryk Anders saw how long it took and told Menifield to hold his beer, knocking out Moreira in just over a minute in Moreira’s second UFC fight. Then the UFC thought, oh we know what to do, we’ll pair him up with another submission specialist so he doesn’t just immediately get knocked out again! Enter Paul Craig, who very nearly knocks out Moreira a few minutes into the first round, but opts to finish him with a Rear-Naked Choke instead.
Moreira is now coming off a 16 month layoff following his trio of R1 losses in 2019. This sort of feels like he signed a four fight contract with the UFC, but then after losing three he realized there was zero chance he would get resigned, so he just milked the clock on his UFC career—sort of like refusing to make your last wish with a genie. Maybe he made a deal with the devil and is looking for a loophole, who knows. Either way, the UFC has flushed Moreira out of hiding and is forcing him to fulfill his contract.
In his 13 pro fights, Moreira has never been to a decision and now he squares off against Villanueva, who’s only been to four decisions in 28 pro fights. As a submission specialist, you would have to think that Moreira is excited about the fact that five of Villanueva’s 11 career losses have come by submission. We haven’t seen Villanueva’s ground game in the UFC as both of his quick losses came by KO, but it’s probably a safe bet to say it’s not awesome.
Note: Moreira was the last one to weigh in and had to use the towel to make weight. This is just one more red flag for him.
Fight Prediction:
Moreira will have a 3” height advantage, but Villanueva will have a 4” reach advantage.
Calling this fight terrible is an understatement. This is like trying to stick a middle school basketball game in the middle of March Madness to fill a time slot. It’s another one of those fights where we desperately wish we could bet on both fighters to lose, however, one of these guys has to win. In the UFC’s ultimate wisdom they deemed this fight worthy of being on the main card—but then again the card takes place on a Wednesday morning during the presidential inauguration, so maybe they’re not expecting many people to tune in anyways.
The outcome of this fight will likely come down to one question, can Moreira get it to the ground? It’s a tough question to answer, as we’ve yet to see Villanueva defend a takedown so far in the UFC. The oddsmakers have set the Villanueva KO win line at +120 (43%) and the Moreira submission line at +225 (29%). The line for this fight to end early tops the slate at -325 (72%). Similar to what the odds say, we think Villanueva is the more likely one to get the finish, but would not be surprised to see it go the other way.
DFS Implications:
Villanueva’s last six fights have all ended early, as have 24 of his 28 pro matches. Five of his last six didn’t even make it out of the first round, bringing his career total to 18 fights that ended in under five minutes. He’s gone 14-4 in those 18 bouts. The oddsmakers think it’s more likely Villanueva gets the KO at +120 (43%) than Moreira completing the submission at +225 (29%), but both lines present realistic possibilities. Nearly half of Villanueva’s career losses have come by submission, and now he goes against a one-dimensional submission threat who fails to put the special in specialist. Villanueva is also a one-dimensional fighter who relies on KOs to finish fights. Luckily for him, he gets an opponent who’s been knocked out in the first round in two of his three UFC fights and nearly in the third before getting submitted.
All 13 of Moreira’s pro fights have ended early, including 10 in the first round, and all three of his UFC fights have ended in R1 losses. Eight of his nine wins have come by submission, and he doesn’t appear to be any sort of threat on the feet. We haven’t seen him inside of the Octagon for 16 months and he was recently warned, but not fined or suspended by the USADA for inadvertently taking a banned supplement. This guy seems like a mess and this will most likely be his last fight in the UFC, regardless of the outcome. All he has left to do at this point is hunt for a performance bonus.
Both of these fighters are priced almost identically on DraftKings at $8,200/$8,000, but Villanueva is noticeably more expensive on FanDuel at $17 compared to Moreira at $14. So from a value perspective, it makes sense to play more Villanueva on DraftKings and more Moreira on FanDuel. However, that will also likely be the common perception so Villanueva will likely go a little lower owned on FanDuel, where he also has the ability to benefit from takedowns defended. We prefer Villanueva on both sites, but think you’ll definitely want to hedge with some Moreira, who has the potential to add points from control time on DraftKings and submission attempts on FanDuel.
Mounir Lazzez
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Looking to keep his momentum going after winning a decision in his UFC debut against power puncher Abdul Razak Alhassan, Lazzez had been scheduled to fight David Zawada back in October, but then he tested positive for COVID. Now six months removed since his last fight Lazzez seems to be champing at the bit to get back inside the Octagon.
In a recent interview, Lazzez said:
“If there’s anyone at lightweight, welterweight or middleweight, for real, I mean it. I can make lightweight now for this fight. I can fight in welterweight. I can fight in middleweight. This is what martial arts is about. I’m not here just (to) give me four months, give me two months to fight. I’m ready anytime, anywhere, and I mean it.”
So taking this fight on two and a half weeks notice was apparently no problem for him.
Lazzez showed a solid chin and crisp striking in his UFC debut. He absorbed everything the former 10-1 Alhassan could throw at him early on, and then went to work with his own striking. He showed a wide array of strikes and the ability to attack from multiple angles, mixing in elbows, knees and multi-level punches and kicks. He also tacked on four takedowns and nearly six minutes of control time to go with his 114 total strikes and 98 significant. The fight could have stayed on the ground longer a couple times if not for the ref standing the fighters up so curiously quickly.
His last two fights before joining the UFC were both R1 KO wins, and 8 of his 10 career wins have been by KO—including five in the first round. His only career loss was a 2019 five round decision.
Warlley Alves
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Alves was originally scheduled to fight Christian Aguilera on January 16th, but Aguilera withdrew towards the end of December and Lazzez was announced as the replacement on January 4th.
After winning his first 10 pro fights, including his first four in the UFC and a win over Colby Covington, Alves has lost four of his last seven fights and two of his last three. His last four fights have all ended early, as have 7 of his 11 UFC fights. However, only one of those ended in the first round. His last seven fights have all made it to a second round.
Alves has six career submission wins, four by Guillotine Choke, and three KO wins. Three of those Guillotine submission wins came in Alves’ first four UFC fights, while his last two wins have been by KO. Alves’ last three wins have also come against struggling opponents. His most recent win was a R3 KO against an aging Sergio Moraes, who has now lost his last four fights, with the loss to Alves being the second of those. A year before that, Alves was awarded a R2 KO (due to a corner stoppage following the round) against Sultan Aliev—who’s now 2-2 in the UFC with both wins coming in decisions and both losses coming by KO. Alve’s win prior to that one came in a decision against Salim Touahri, who’s now lost all three of his UFC fights.
All four of Alves’ career losses have notably come against tough competition in Randy Brown, James Krause, Kamaru Usman and Bryan Barberena.
Looking more closely at his last two fights, Alves got wobbled by a massive knee up the middle in his fight against James Krause, and looked more or less out on his feet. As Krause began to lay it on him the fight was called moments later. That knee absolutely looked like something Lazzez would throw.
Following a November 2019 R2 Triangle Choke Submission loss at the hands of Randy Brown, the 30-year-old Alves now hasn’t fought in 14 months.
Fight Prediction:
Lazzez will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This sets up as an exciting fight to watch with a good chance it ends early. We like Lazzez to open up his striking early on Alves and very likely end this one with a KO in the first two rounds.
The lines all seem about right so there’s not a ton to capitalize on here, but you could consider Lazzez Wins by R1 KO at +350 or Lazzez Wins by R2 KO at +650.
DFS Implications:
Lazzez leads the slate in average significant strikes landed per minute—albeit that’s based on a one fight sample size. You can’t help but be excited for this guy after watching him explode onto the scene in his UFC debut. Despite the fight ending in a decision, Lazzez put on a striking clinic and showed he can score from takedowns as well. He now gets an aggressive opponent, who’s lost two of his last three fights and is coming off an extended 14 month layoff. Another noteworthy point is this will be a home game for Lazzez, who trains out of Team Nogueira Fighting Club in Dubai, which is just an hour drive from Yas Island (yes, there’s a bridge to Fight Island).
This sets up as a great spot for Lazzez to get his first KO victory in the UFC, possibly by one of his violent knees up the middle. The oddsmakers agree with us and have set his moneyline at -225 and his KO win line at +150, implying a 38% chance he finishes this with a knockout. And even if it does end in another decision, Lazzez has shown he can score well nevertheless. Fire Lazzez up with confidence in all types of contests.
This looks like a real tough spot for Alves, who didn’t fight at all in 2020 and has just one win since May 2018. Alhassan made somewhat of an effort to look for a Guillotine choke against Lazzez in his debut, but Lazzez seemed to know how to defend it as he stepped to the side and negated each attempt. Considering Alves has four wins by Guillotine himself, that’s one potential avenue for him to try and win this fight. We think Lazzez will outclass Alves in striking, forcing Alves to look for submissions. If he does somehow pull off the upset, it will likely come early because it’s hard to see him winning a decision—unless he just controls the fight on the ground for the duration, which we doubt. When you combine that with his cheap price on both DFS sites, there’s a good chance he could end up in optimal lineups despite the fact that he generally hasn’t scored exceptionally in the past.
Neil Magny
24th UFC Fight (17-6)Magny is coming off three straight decision wins in 2020 after taking 16 months off following a R4 KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in November of 2018. Magny has won five of his last six fights, with four of those wins coming in decisions.
Since joining the UFC in 2013 he’s fought 23 times with 12 of those ending in decisions. Five of his six UFC losses have come early. He was submitted in R1 via Triangle Choke of his 2013 match against Sergio Moraes and then lost his next fight in a decision. In 2015 he was submitted in R2 by Demian Maia by Rear-Naked Choke, and then knocked out by Lorenz Larkin in R1 of their 2016 fight. Rafael dos Anjoes also submitted him in R1 via Arm-Triangle Choke, and then his most recent loss was the R4 KO at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio. So in summary, he’s been submitted three times in the UFC and knocked out twice. His last four losses all came early.
He’s won 14 of the 15 decisions he’s been involved in as a pro (some dubiously), with 11 of those wins coming in the UFC. Four of his 10 early wins came prior to joining the UFC. He only has two early victories in his last 13 fights, and those came against a very low level of competition in Craig White, who’s no longer in the UFC and has lost his last four fights since losing to Magny, and Hector Lombard, who’s lost his last five fights since losing to Magny.
This will be Magny’s third five round fight in the UFC. His first was in 2015 against Kelvin Gastelum, who Magny beat in a controversial split decision. Both fighters landed just 54 significant strikes in the match, but Magny added on six takedowns on 14 attempts. Gastelum knocked Magny down twice and had two takedowns of his own, but the judges still thought Magny did enough to give him the nod in a razor thin decision. The win scored 97 DraftKings points with the new scoring system.
Magny’s second five round fight was the 2018 R4 KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio that we previously mentioned. Magny scored just 29 DraftKings points in that loss.
To go along with his seven career KO wins, Magny has three career submission wins. However, two of those came prior to joining the UFC and he only has one submission victory in the last decade, which was a 2015 R3 Rear-Naked Choke.
Michael Chiesa
15th UFC Fight (10-4)A submission specialist, who’s never been involved in a high-volume striking affair, Chiesa has gone 3-0 and averaged five takedowns per fight since moving up to 170 lb from 155 lb in 2018. Chiesa spent the first 10 years of his pro career down at 155 lb, but after losing back to back fights by submission in 2017 and 2018, he decided he would be better served up at 170 lb. Since making the switch, he has a 2018 R2 submission win over Carlos Condit, a 2019 three round decision win over Diego Sanchez and a 2020 three round decision win over Rafael dos Anjos.
Amazingly, we saw just 23 significant strikes landed in Chiesa’s last three round decision over RDA. Chiesa smothered RDA (58% career takedown defense) for the duration of the 15 minute fight with 10 minutes of control time and only used striking to set up takedowns, which he landed six of on eight attempts. Despite landing just 9 significant strikes, Chiesa scored 91 DraftKings points on the back of 6 takedowns, 54 total strikes and over 10 minutes of control time.
In his second most recent fight, Chiesa had essentially the same results, although he landed more significant strikes tallying 47 to Sanchez’s meager 7. Chiesa amassed a ridiculous 12 minutes of control time in that 15 minute fight against Sanchez (46% career takedown defense). Benefitting from the new DraftKings scoring, Chiesa scored 110 points in the decisions with 98 total strikes, 47 significant, 5 takedowns, 1 reversal and 12 minutes of control time.
In his first fight at 170 lb back in 2018, Chiesa submitted Carlos Condit (39% career takedown defense) a minute into the second round with a Kimura that he somehow finished with one hand. In what was another prime example of how few strikes Chiesa generally lands, he finished with 16 total strikes landed, 10 significant, 4 takedowns and over 4 minutes of control time in the six minute fight. That was good for 103 DraftKings points.
Prior to the weight class switch, Chiesa had failed to eclipse 100 DraftKings points in his previous 7 fights, but all of his wins did score at least 82 points.
This will be Chiesa’s second five round fight in the UFC. His first didn’t last long, as he got submitted in R1 by Rear-Naked Choke against Kevin Lee in 2017. Chiesa landed just four significant strikes and no takedowns in the match. So we’ve never seen Chiesa past the third round and it’s hard to know how he would look in the championship rounds given his exhausting grappling fighting style.
Fight Prediction:
Magny will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. If common opponent comparisons get you excited, Neil Magny got submitted in the first round of his 2017 match against RDA, who Chiesa beat in his last match.
Chiesa has dominated all three of his opponents on the ground since moving up to Welterweight. If that trend continues, we could be looking at a smothering upset with early submission potential. With that said, Magny is no stranger to working off the mat, and the BJJ brown belt generally has a very active guard from his back. Look for Chiesa to get this fight to the ground quickly, where we like him to control Magny and potentially end it with an early submission. Magny has a career 59% takedown defense, which is just a tick better than RDA’s 58% career average, who Chiesa was able to take down six times in 15 minutes on eight attempts. Magny’s lauded pace and cardio would likely give him the advantage if this makes it into the championship rounds, but we give the advantage to Chiesa early on and like his chances for a finish.
We like the Chiesa Submission like at +320, but actually prefer the Chiseas Wins by R1 Submission line at +950 and R2 Submission line at +1500.
DFS Implications:
Outside of one flukey performance, where Magny landed a million significant strikes through ground and pound on a helpless Hector Lombard in a fight that should have been stopped much sooner, Magny has never been a huge volume striker or power puncher. He’s bolstered his scores at times with takedowns in bunches, but has also failed to land a takedown in five of his last 9 matches. With 14 if his 24 career wins coming by decision, including 7 of his last 9, Magny appears to be more or less a decision machine who’s dependent on landing multiple takedowns to make up for his average striking volume if he wants to score well. It’s pretty clear this will be a pace down fight from a striking standpoint, so Magny will need to either beat Chiesa at his own game or get an early finish to score well. We think this is a bad spot for Magny and recommend being well under the field on him.
Chiesa appears to be a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system as he racks up control time and now scores points off his ground strikes that don’t register as significant. He’s looked great since moving up to Welterweight and has had no problem with both getting his opponents down to the ground and then dominating once there. While his last two fights have ended in decisions, 11 of his 17 career wins have come by submission. When you combine that with the fact that 4 of Magny’s 7 career losses have also come by submission, this seems like a very realistic outcome.
There are a couple areas of potential concern that are worth mentioning. First, Chiesa doesn’t offer much on the feet, so if Magny can keep this one standing up, Chiesa would be in big trouble. And second, we have no clue if Chiesa can keep up his exhausting grappling approach for 25 minutes, as he’s never fought beyond the third round. Magny’s pace and cardio are often praised, so he would likely have the stamina advantage if this makes it to the championship rounds. Overall, this feels like a lower scoring main event, but we think Chiesa is a solid play on both DFS sites.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma