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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Sergey Morozov
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Continuing to alternate wins and losses over his last five fights, Morozov is coming off a decision win over Raulian Paiva. Prior to that, Morozov got submitted in the second round by Douglas Silva de Andrade, after winning a wrestling-heavy decision over Khalid Taha. Looking back one fight further, Morozov got submitted in the second round of his UFC debut by Umar Nurmagomedov. Morozov’s last four losses have all come early, with the last three of those ending in late round submissions.
In his last fight, Raulian Paiva hurt Morozov on the feet early on, but Morozov was able to tie him up in the clinch to buy time to recover. The two recklessly traded punches on the feet, while Morozov failed to land either of his two takedown attempts in the round. Morozov landed a takedown early in round two and was able to control Paiva for the majority of the round. Morozov looked for another takedown early in round three and continued to grind on Paiva against the cage before the two finally returned to space. Each guy was looking to take the other down over the final two minutes, but neither was successful until Paiva finally completed an attempt in the closing seconds of the fight. It ended up not mattering, as Morozov coasted to a unanimous decision win. The fight ended with Morozov ahead in significant strikes 68-63 and in total strikes 82-62. He only landed 2 of his 13 takedown attempts with four and a half minutes of control time, while Paiva landed one takedown on four attempts.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Morozov has eight wins by KO, three by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been finished in four of his five losses, once by KO and three times by submission. The only decision loss of his career was back in 2016 and he’s gotten his hand raised in seven of his eight trips to the judges. All three of his submission losses were by rear-naked choke in the later rounds, with two coming in round two and another in round three. The first of those was against undefeated Movsar Evloev, the next was against undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, and the most recent was against a tough 28-5 Douglas Silva de Andrade. His lone KO loss came in 2016 against Josh Rettinghouse, and Morozov later avenged the loss in an M-1 five-round decision in a Bantamweight title fight just before joining the UFC. All three of Morozov’s submission wins occurred in round one, but they also all took place in his first six pro fights and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2015. Seven of his eight KO/TKO wins came in the first two rounds, with three in round one and four in round two. The other occurred in the fourth round of another 2019 M-1 title fight.
Overall, Morozov is a fairly well rounded fighter but he relies heavily on his wrestling and struggles when he goes against a superior grappler. He tends to wear on his opponents and 10 of his last 12 fights have made it past the first round, with seven seeing a third round, and five going the distance. While he’s generally trying to get fights to the mat, he hasn’t landed a submission since 2015 and is generally looking to knock opponents out or grind out grappling-heavy decisions. Of his last 11 wins, seven have gone the distance, while four ended in KO/TKOs. He’s yet to finish anyone in the UFC. In his four UFC fights, Morozov has landed 9 takedowns on 34 attempts (26.5% accuracy).
Journey Newson
5th UFC Fight (1-2, NC)Newson is coming off his first official UFC win in a decision victory over Fernie Garcia, after he had a 2020 38 second round one KO victory over Domingo Pilarte overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. Prior to his recent win, Newson got knocked out in 41 seconds by Randy Costa, following the NC. He originally made his UFC debut in 2019 and lost a decision to Ricardo Ramos. Four of his last six fights have ended early, with three of those ending in 80 seconds or less and the other ending in round two.
In his last fight, Newson took Garcia down midway through the first round, which was the first takedown Newson had landed in four UFC fights. However, Garcia was quickly able to return to his feet and escape back to space. Newson was able to hurt Garcia midway through round two, but Garcia was able to recover as Newson never really pushed for the finish. Newson landed another takedown early in round three, but again, Garcia was able to quickly return to his feet. Newson was patient throughout the fight, even when he had Garcia hurt, while Garcia was never really able to get much going in the fight. It ended with Newson ahead 57-37 in significant strikes and 63-38 in total strikes, while he landed two of his three takedown attempts and cruised to a unanimous decision win.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Newson has three wins by KO, three more by submission, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the first round, and has one decision loss. He’s a BJJ black belt, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017.
Overall, Newson is a pretty well rounded fighter as he started off training Taekwondo as a kid before transitioning to jiu-jitsu when he got a little older. He has a couple of boxing matches on his record and his father was also a boxer. Newson has heavy hands, but he’s pretty short and generally fighting at a high disadvantage. He’s looked very vulnerable to head kicks, which is definitely something he needs to work on. He also doesn’t throw much volume and only averages 3.26 SSL/min and 2.62 SSA/min. Newson’s last three opponents haven’t tried to take him down, after Ricardo Ramos landed all three of his attempts in Newson’s debut. So we’ve yet to see Newson successfully defend a takedown. He’s landed two takedowns of his own on just four attempts.
Fight Prediction:
Morozov will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach and are 33 years old.
Neither of these two have ever won two fights in a row in the UFC, so they’ll each be looking to change that here. Morozov is a relentless but inefficient wrestler with a suspect chin and a fragile neck, while Newson has also shown some durability concerns in the past, with two of his three pro losses ending in first round knockouts. While Newson hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017, he is a BJJ black belt and came close to locking up a guillotine in the third round of his UFC debut. Those skills will come in handy against Morozov, who has been very prone to getting choked out. Both guys have shown dubious chins so it wouldn’t be surprising to see either of them knock the other out. If we don’t see a finish, look for Morozov to out wrestle his way to a decision victory, but we like this one to end early given how vulnerable both guys have looked to being finished. We’ll go out on a limb here and say Newson locks up a submission to pull off the massive upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Newson SUB” at +2200.
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DFS Implications:
Morozov is a former M-1 Bantamweight Champion, and has shown solid wrestling potential in his first four UFC fights, but has also been choked unconscious twice over that stretch. In between those trips to the abyss, he won a wrestling-heavy decision that was good for 105 DraftKings points but just 86 points on FanDuel. However, his most recent decision win was only good for 78 DraftKings points as he was only able to land 2 of his 13 takedown attempts. Working in his favor in this next matchup, Newson has been taken down on all three of the attempts against him, although he is also a BJJ black belt. So we could see Morozov land a higher percentage of his takedown attempts, but we could see him get choked out again. On the bright side, both of those present scoring potential for whoever wins this fight. Newson has also been knocked out in the first round twice in his career, so that’s another avenue for Morozov to score well. While we never feel comfortable backing Morozov based on how prone to getting finished he is, this looks like a fight you’ll want to target as there’s a good chance the winner scores well. The odds imply Morozov has a 74% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Newson has yet to officially put up a usable score in DFS, but did have a first round KO win that would have scored 128 DraftKings points before it was later overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. He also nearly locked up a guillotine choke in his UFC debut. So he has shown scoring upside, it just hasn’t translated to his statsheet quite yet. Morozov has shown a suspect chin and a weak neck, so this looks like a decent spot for Newson to find a finish if he can avoid being finished himself and/or getting controlled on the mat for the entire fight. He’s certainly not a safe play by any means and as a massive underdog he most likely loses, but in the instances he does pull off the upset, he likely ends up in tournament winning lineups, especially when you factor in his extremely cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Manel Kape
5th UFC Fight (2-2)It’s been a year since Kape last competed after his last two fights were both canceled. Kape had been scheduled to face Sumudaerji back in April 2022, but tested positive for “a trace amount of the long-term metabolite of the steroid dehydrochloromethyltestosterone (DHCMT)” and was pulled from the card. He was then banned from competing in Nevada for the next six months, but the UFC took no disciplinary action so he’s still allowed to compete outside of Nevada. Therefore the UFC put him on the Singapore card, but the universe upheld Nevada’s decision and Rogerio Bontorin dropped out of the fight due to a botched weight cut.
Totally unrelated to his recent failed drug test, Kape has landed back-to-back first round knockouts and is coming off his most impressive performance to date, after losing a pair of unimpressive decisions in his first two UFC fights. He progressively faced easier competition over his first four UFC fights, making his UFC debut against the #2 ranked Flyweight in Alexandre Pantoja, before taking on the now #5 ranked Matheus Nicolau, and then moving on to unranked opponents in Ode Osbourne and Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Prior to joining the UFC, Kape landed three straight second round knockout in Rizin and won the vacant Bantamweight belt in the last of those.
In his last fight, Kape put on his most impressive UFC performance to date in his last fight as he showed off next-level hand speed to finish out the match. He took on a smaller opponent in Zhalgas Zhumagulov, who came in more aggressive than we’ve ever seen him, potentially trying to make up for his size disadvantage. Zhumagulov landed some good shots, but Kape began to take over as the round progressed and dropped Zhumagulov in the final 90 seconds with a straight right hand. Zhumagulov was able to return to his feet, but Kape smelled blood in the water and backed him up against the cage before flipping on the nitro boosters and going full matrix mode on him to get the finish. The fight ended with Kape ahead 53-31 in significant strikes with no takedowns attempted.
Now 17-6 as a pro, Kape has 11 wins by KO, five by submission, and just one decision. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice and has lost four of the five decisions he’s been to, with two of the last four being split (0-2). Nine of his 16 finishes have come in round one, three ended in round two, three finished in round three, and the other occurred in round four. Five of his last seven fights have ended in the first two rounds. All six of his career losers have made it to the third round, with both of his submission losses occurring late in round three. Kape has fought between 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, but more so at 135 lb until he joined the UFC where he’s fought exclusively at 125 lb—or at least tried to. He notably missed weight by three pounds for his second most recent fight.
Overall, Kape is a quick striker who can throw flurries of punches, but his ground game looks pretty suspect and his fight IQ is questionable. He looked better in his last fight, but his recent failed drug test seemingly casts a shadow on that performance. Who knows what’s actually going on with him, but it will be interesting to see how he looks in this next fight. He’s still just 29 years old and looks like a potentially promising prospect, but we’ve also yet to see him tested on the mat much.
David Dvorak
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off his first loss since 2012, Dvorak dropped a decision to Matheus Nicolau and nearly got knocked out in the fight. That snapped a 16 fight winning streak, so it will be interesting to see how Dvorak responds moving forward. Prior to that loss, Dvorak landed his first early win in the UFC, which came against extremely short notice replacement Juancamilo Ronderos. Dvorak had originally been scheduled to face Raulian Paiva, but Paiva was forced to withdraw due to a botched weight cut, so Juancamilo Ronderos was announced as the last minute replacement just as weigh-ins began. Dvorak made short work of Ronderos, finishing him in just 138 seconds with a one armed rear-naked choke. Given the circumstances, it’s hard to place too much value in that win. Prior to that finish, Dvorak won a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights. In his last fight, we saw a painfully slow start with Nicolau circling away from contact for the first half of the fight before landing a knockdown late in the second round. The first round ended with Dvorak ahead in significant strikes 12-6 and then he also led in round two 19-17. No takedowns were attempted until round three, when both fighters failed to land two attempts. The only big moment in the fight was the knockdown, which seemed to be what won Nicolau the fight. Dvorak finished ahead in significant strikes 39-36 and in total strikes 60-46. He also led in control time 1:25-0:48. Now 20-4 as a pro, Dvorak has eight wins by KO, eight by submission, and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2012 R2 TKO due to a cut and he’s never been submitted. He also has three decision losses, but two of those occurred in his first four pro fights in 2010 and 2011. While three of his four UFC fights have gone the distance, he landed 13 straight finishes just before joining the organization. All 16 of his career finishes have come in the first two rounds, with 10 ending in round one and six ending in round two. Overall, Dvorak is a very calculated fighter, who is more focused on winning opposed to landing finishes, but has the ability to end fights both on the feet or the mat. He’s more of an opportunistic finisher and if it’s there he’ll go for it but he’s far less likely to sell out to try and end them early. Despite half of his career finishes coming by submission, Dvorak has yet to land a takedown in the UFC on just four attempts. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down 3 times on 16 opponent attempts (81.3% defense), with all three of those successful takedowns coming in his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” with a 68” reach. Kape has to be champing at the bit after his last two fights were both canceled after he had already completed training camps. After a year away, it will be interesting to see how much ring rust he has to knock off, but Dvorak is a patient fighter who won’t overwhelm Kape early on. That should allow Kape to settle into the fight and he looks to have the quicker hands in this matchup. We’ve never been impressed by Kape’s grappling, but Dvorak has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, so he’s less likely to attack that potential weakness. We saw Dvorak get hurt on the feet and nearly finished in his last match, looking vulnerable for the first time since joining the UFC. That gives some reason to think that Kape can land a knockout, but both of these two fighters have been painfully patient at times and exciting at others. That makes it tougher to have a great feel for how it plays out, but we expect to see Dvorak come in with a safer game plan opposed to throwing down in a fire fight. That will leave Kape reliant on making the most of his opportunities if he wants to find a finish. If this fight ends early, look for it to come by way of a Kape knockout, most likely in the first two rounds, but we won’t be that surprised if it goes the distance. Kape has really struggled with the judges, going just 1-4 in his career decisions, including two split-decision losses. That makes it tougher to predict who will get their hand raised if this goes the distance, but despite his past struggles we’ll still say Kape comes out victorious.
Our favorite bet here is “Kape KO” at +190.
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DFS Implications:
Kape is coming off back-to-back first round knockouts where he put up DraftKings totals of 131 and 108. Following a flying knee KO against Ode Osbourne where Kape was just 19% owned, we expected his ownership to rise, but he curiously checked in at just 17% for his recent slate-breaking win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. We’d be surprised if that number didn’t go up here. Kape scored just 31 and 28 DraftKings points in his two decision losses, and looks like a boom or bust DFS play who relies on early finishes to return value. Working in his favor, 16 of his 17 career wins have come early. While Dvorak has only been finished once in his career, he nearly got knocked out in his last fight and showed some limitations as he faces tougher competition. Kape will have the quicker hands and has a decent shot of landing a knockout. However, if he fails to get it done then look for this to end in a low scoring decision. The odds imply Kape has a 69% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Dvorak’s calculated approach to fighting has been great for his record, but has been far less beneficial in DFS. He has averaged just 75 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins and even in his first round submission win, he still somehow scored just 94 points. His last decision win only returned 58 points and despite having eight submission wins on his record, he’s yet to land a takedown in the UFC. he also only averages 3.87 SSL/min and 3.00 SSA/min and no one has landed more than 68 significant strikes in any of his UFC fights. So even at his cheaper price tag, he could potentially win a decision and still get left out of winning tournament lineups. That leaves him reliant on landing a finish, and Kape has never been knocked out in his career, but has been submitted twice. The odds imply Dvorak has a 31% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Rinat Fakhretdinov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Fakhretdinov had been scheduled to face Michael Morales here, but Morales withdrew and Battle was announced as the replacement 15 days before the event. Fakhretdinov is coming off a wrestling-heavy decision win in his UFC debut over Andreas Michailidis. Prior to that, Fakhretdinov secured his spot on the UFC roster with a violent 55 second R1 KO win over former UFC fighter Eric Spicely in January 2021. Looking back one first further, Fakhretdinov won another smothering three-round decision as he relied on his wrestling. Fakhretdinov hasn’t been very active in recent years, with no fights in 2020 and just the one in early 2021, leading up to his one fight this year. Fakhretdinov has won 18 straight fights, since losing a two-round decision in his second pro fight.
In his last fight, Fakhretdinov dominated Andreas Michailidis on the mat for the entire fight, as he landed 5 of his 10 takedown attempts with 13 minutes of control time. Michailidis was never able to get any offense of his own going and his only response to the grappling efforts of Fakhretdinov was to try and grab the fence whenever possible. Fakhretdinov finished ahead in significant strikes 45-18 and in total strikes 106-48. The fact that Fakhretdinov was unable to finish the cardiovascularly challenged Michailidis is somewhat concerning for us, but since it was his debut and he was coming off a long layoff we’ll cut him some slack.
Now 19-1 as a pro, Fakhretdinov has 11 wins by KO, five by submission, and three decisions. His lone loss came in a two-round decision in 2013. All 16 of his finishes have come in the first two rounds, including 12 in round one and 4 in round two. Six of his last eight finishes have come by KO/TKO, while his last four submission wins have all ended in guillotines. His early career record was really padded and he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition, so his impressive record should be taken with a grain of salt.
Overall, Fakhretdinov is a relentless Russian wrestler, but his inactivity over the past few years leaves some questions surrounding his current form. He’s only been to the third round three times in his career, and we’re not quite sold on his cardio yet until we see more out of him late in fights. He’s primarily looking for control and ground and pound on the mat, but will lock up a guillotine when the opportunity presents itself. We haven’t seen him have to face any adversity recently, so we still don’t know how he’ll respond when he does.
Bryan Battle
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Fresh off a 44 second first round KO win in his first fight after moving down to 170 lb, Battle competed at 185 lb for the first eight fights of his career, as well as when he went on The Ultimate Fighter. His last fight ended so quickly that we still don’t know how his body will handle the weight cut, specifically when it comes to his cardio and durability. After defeating a pair of TUF contestants in his first two UFC fights, Battle knocked out Takashi Sato most recently.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it. Battle knocked Sato out with a head kick in the opening minute and no follow up was even needed. The fight ended with Battle ahead in striking 7-2.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Battle has two wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. His only career loss came in a 2019 R1 submission in his second pro fight. Four of his six early wins have occurred in round two, with the other two ending in round one.
Overall, Battle is an uptempo fighter who throws a lot of kicks and knees out of the clinch, but he doesn’t have the most explosive hands. He leads the slate in striking volume, averaging 7.18 SSL/min, while he’s landed 2 of his 9 takedown attempts (22.2% accuracy). He’s generally looking to choke out his opponents after wearing them down, although when you knock them out immediately no choke is required.
Fight Prediction:
Battle will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also three years younger than the 31-year-old Fakhretdinov.
There are a lot of unknowns swirling around this fight that make it a more volatile bout to predict. Fakhretdinov has yet to face any adversity lately and has only fought twice in the last 3+ years. We don’t really know what his cardio will look like when he’s not just dominating a fight and the fact that he couldn’t finish an exhausted Andreas Michailidis in the third round of his last fight concerns us. Meanwhile, Battle has only spent 44 seconds of his career at 170 lb, after previously fighting at 185 lb. We have no clue what his cardio or chin look like at the weight class, nor has he had to defend a takedown since the move. However, he had done a good job of defeating grapplers at 185 lb and has a second round submission win over Andre Petroski on his TUF record (not his official pro record). That’s encouraging for his chances as he faces another wrestler here, but the weight cut has the potential to play a major factor. Neither of these two have ever landed a finish beyond the second round, so if this does end early, it most likely does so in the opening 10 minutes. If it goes the distance, we give Fakhretdinov the advantage based on his relentless wrestling, which leaves Battle’s best chance to win as finding a finish in the opening two rounds. Despite his recent first round knockout victory, he’s historically found the most success in landing finishes in round two, and if he can wear Fakhretdinov out, then a second round finish would be even more likely. With all the uncertainty going on, it’s hard to be overly confident in either guy, but we like the chances of this fight ending in the first two rounds, and forced to choose we’ll say Battle lands a second round submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at +132.
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DFS Implications:
Fakhretdinov is coming off a dominant wrestling performance that scored 109 DraftKings points, but just 77 points on FanDuel. His grappling-heavy style of fighting is clearly better suited to the DraftKings scoring system, whereas he’ll be reliant on landing finishes to score well on FanDuel. The fact that he wasn’t able to finish an exhausted Andreas Michailidis in his last fight is concerning for his finishing ability moving forward in the UFC, but that was also his debut and he was coming off a long layoff, so perhaps he’ll show more finishing upside in the future. We’re still not entirely sold on him though, and we’ve yet to see how he handles adversity or how his cardio will hold up in a more back and forth fight. Nevertheless, he offers clear upside and will always be in the DFS discussion. There’s a lot of uncertainty on both sides of this matchup, making it a higher variance spot and a fight we’re looking to target in general. The odds imply Fakhretdinov has a 59% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Battle averages 7.18 SSL/min (most on the slate) and has also attempted nine takedowns in his first two UFC fights, but landed just two of those. Six of his last seven wins have come early, and even in his lone UFC decision victory, he still scored 87 DraftKings points, while his two finishes were good for 97 and 128 points. He moved down to 170 lb for the first time in his career in his last fight and landed a near immediate head kick KO in the opening minute of the match. That means we haven’t seen how the weight cut will affect his cardio and durability, and leaves a lot of unanswered questions. Now he’ll go up against a relentless wrestler, who will be looking to drag Battle to the mat and wear on his gas tank. So unless we get another quick finish, we should learn a lot about Battle’s current form in this matchup. He’s found success going against grapplers in the past, and notably submitted Andre Petroski on TUF in the second round, which is encouraging for his chances here. He’s shown clear scoring upside, although there’s always the potential for him to get controlled for the first half of this fight and then land a later finish that would have a tougher time really scoring well. However, at his cheaper price tag there’s still a decent chance that could allow him to serve as a value play depending on what the rest of the underdogs do. This certainly isn’t the best matchup for Battle, but he’s still got a decent chance of landing a finish if he can stay off his back and with Fakhretdinov constantly looking to wrestle, the potential for Battle to lock up another submission win should be there. Just keep in mind, this is a high variance fight that could go a lot of ways. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Rafa Garcia
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Drakkar Klose, Garcia has now gone the distance in six of his last seven fights. After losing a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights, Garcia bounced back with a decision win and a late second round submission victory in his next two outings, leading up to his recent loss. His two wins have come against a guy making his UFC debut and a UFC retread coming off a two year steroid suspension, who absorbed an illegal knee from Garcia leading up to the submission. Just some things to keep in mind.
In his last fight, Garcia got taken down a couple of times by Drakkar Klose in the first round, while failing to land his only attempt in the opening five minutes. Garcia was able to land three takedowns in the last 10 minutes of the fight, but Klose continued to outstrike him throughout the fight and went on to win a unanimous decision. The fight ended with Klose ahead in significant strikes 61-34 and in total strikes 111-83. Klose landed 2 of his 10 takedown attempts with just over two minutes of control time, while Garcia landed 3 of his 11 attempts with just under three minutes of control time.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Garcia has one win by KO, eight by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses going the distance. Garcia started his career at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Garcia is a somewhat willing striker, but is pretty hittable and mostly relies on his grappling to win fights. He’s been durable to this point, having never been finished, but he hasn’t been tested a ton. He’s landed 15 takedowns on 31 attempts (48.4%) in his four UFC fights, with at least three landed in each of his last three matches, and double digit attempts in the two of those that went the distance.
Maheshate
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a 74 second R1 KO win in his debut, Maheshate has more knockdowns than minutes of Octagon time at this point. Prior to that explosive finish, Maheshate won a decision on DWCS. Two of his last four fights have gone the distance, while the other two ended in first round knockouts that each took 74 seconds or less. He’s won seven straight fights since suffering the only loss of his career in a 2019 decision. He hasn’t faced much in terms of competition in his career, and prior to going on DWCS none of his opponents had winning records.
In Maheshate’s last fight, Garcia landed a couple of good shots early on, but then momentarily got sat down 30 seconds in. Garcia tried to tie things up against the fence to buy time to recover, but as soon as things returned to space Garcia got caught lunging in and put to sleep with a perfectly placed walk off right hand from Maheshate. The fight ended with significant strikes dead even at 7 apiece, with Garcia leading in total strikes 9-7 but getting knocked down twice in a fight that only lasted 74 seconds.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Maheshate has four wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. His only loss came in his third pro fight, in a 2019 decision that occurred just a couple of months after he turned pro, when he was fighting every 3-4 weeks. All but two of his nine career fights have made it out of the first round, with five going the distance. Maheshate fought at 170 lb just before going on DWCS, but the rest of his career has been spent at 155 lb.
Overall, Maheshate looks to be a pure striker who started out boxing as a young teenager. He claims to have briefly wrestled as well, before transitioning to MMA when he was 17. Still just 23 years old, he only turned pro three years ago in June 2019, when he was 20. He’s shown a solid chin and looks like a patient striker who will pick his spots while trying to remain defensively sound. We did see him absorb several heavy shots early in his DWCS fight, but he was able to weather the storm and win the later rounds.
UPDATE: Maheshate missed weight by 2.5 lb!
Fight Prediction:
Maheshate will have a 5” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 28-year-old Garcia.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler battle and we’ve yet to see Maheshate operate off his back in the UFC. Maheshate will have a considerable size advantage, so it will be interesting to see if that gives Garcia trouble getting him to the ground. If Garcia can be successful in landing takedowns, we like him to control this fight on the mat for extended periods of time and grind out a decision win, with a chance of landing a submission. We’ll say Garcia wins by decision.
Our favorite bet here is Garcia’s ML at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Garcia’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting always keeps him in the DFS discussion and he’ll have a massive grappling advantage in this matchup. However, Maheshate showed just how dangerous of a striker he is in his recent debut, so Garcia will need to be careful not to run into anything as he looks for a takedown. To Garcia’s credit, he’s been durable up to this point in his career and no one has ever finished him. That leaves us optimistic that he can absorb a few shots if he needs to to lock up a takedown, and we like his chances of finding a ton of grappling success. In his second round submission win, Garcia scored 115 DraftKings points, while he put up 93 points in his previous decision victory. He also scored 69 points in a decision loss, showing a solid floor even when he doesn’t get a finish. He likely needs a finish to be useful on FanDuel, but he has the potential to put up a big DraftKings score even in a decision victory. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Maheshate is coming off a slate-breaking performance where he scored 113 DraftKings points as the underdog in the fight, and now checks in as the underdog once again. He’s still really young and green at just 23 years old and three years into his pro career, but he’s looked durable and powerful in his recent fights. However, he also didn’t have to operate off his back in either of those fights and he hasn’t shown any grappling skills. That makes this a really tough matchup for him as he faces a durable opponent who will constantly be looking to take him down. With that said, if he can keep the fight standing it’s certainly possible he lands another knockout, but he’ll once again need everything to go right for him. Following his massive performance in his last fight, he’s unlikely to fly under the radar, which lowers our interest in him in tournaments. If he gets controlled for the first round, he may still have a hard time scoring well with a later round finish, although at his cheaper price tag he still could be in the value play discussion. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Said Nurmagomedov
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Entering this matchup on a three fight winning streak, Nurmagomedov is coming off a close decision win over Douglas Silva de Andrade after landing a pair of first round finishes in under 60 seconds just before that. He has three first round finishes in total since joining the UFC, with his other three matches going the distance (2-1). His only loss in his last 11 fights came in a 2019 decision against Raoni Barcelos and all 18 of his pro fights have either ended in the first round (8-0) or gone the distance (8-2).
In Nurmagomedov’s last fight, we saw Douglas Silva de Andrade tie Nurmagomedov up against the fence early on to neutralize the initial explosiveness of Nurmagomedov. When the two finally did return to space, there still weren’t many strikes being landed, with Nurmagomedov finishing the round ahead in significant strikes just 9-8. Silva de Andrade landed the biggest strike in the second round with a spinning backfist in the final 30 seconds. Following the spinning attack, he sort of tripped Nurmagomedov to the mat and finished the round standing above him. Silva de Andrade started the third round with a takedown, but was unable to hold Nurmagomedov on the mat and the fight immediately returned to the feet, although Silva de Andrade held him in the clinch for a short time after. Following a pause for a low blow, Nurmagomedov landed a takedown of his own, but wasn’t able to maintain the position for very long. Nurmagomedov later found himself on the mat following a failed spinning attack, but Silva de Andrade wasn’t really able to capitalize on the position, as it was Nurmagomedov who was being more active off his back as he threw up kicks at Silva de Andrade. The fight was finally stood up in the final minute, with Nurmagomedov finishing the fight with a failed takedown attempt. All three rounds were close, so unsurprisingly the judges had mixed opinions on the exact scoring. However, all three judges scored it for Nurmagomedov and he finished ahead in significant strikes 42-28 and in total strikes 77-44. Both fighters landed one takedown, Silva de Andrade on one attempt and Nurmagomedov on five.
Now 16-2 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has four wins by R1 KO, four by R1 submission, and eight decision victories. He’s never been finished and both of his losses have gone the distance. Nurmagomedov started his career at 145 lb before dropping down to 135 lb in his fourth pro fight. He tried moving all the way down to 125 lb in his UFC debut, but after winning a split decision he moved back up to 135 lb, where he’s remained since.
While Said shares the Nurmagomedov name he relies more on his striking than his wrestling and has only landed two takedowns in six UFC fights, with just one in his last five matches. He throws a ton of spinning attacks, but he’s also incredibly dangerous with his submission attempts as we saw when he submitted Cody Stamann in his second most recent fight. He’s yet to land more than 65 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorb more than 42, and he only averages 4.15 SSL/min and 2.20 SSA/min.
Saidyokub Kakhramonov
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off a dominant decision win over Ronnie Lawrence, Kakhramonov abused Lawrence on the mat, taking him down 10 times on 16 attempts. Prior to that, Kakhramonov locked up a third round guillotine in his short notice UFC debut against Trevin Jones and has now won four straight fights. Five of his last six matches have ended early, and prior to his recent decision win, Kakhramonov hadn’t required the judges since a 2018 decision loss to up and coming stud, Umar Nurmagomedov.
In his last fight, Kakhramonov was the aggressor from the start as he gave Ronnie Lawrence a taste of his own medicine by relentlessly taking him to the mat. Kakhramonov dominated Lawrence for three rounds in every aspect of the fight, as he landed the more impactful strikes and also took him down 10 times on 16 attempts with over 12 minutes of control time. Lawrence was only able to land one takedown of his own on just two attempts, after landing 26 takedowns in his previous three fights. Kakhramonov finished ahead in significant strikes 32-15 and in total strikes 105-16 as he cruised to a unanimous decision win, and the only thing he couldn’t do was find a finish.
Now 10-2 as pro, Kakhramonov has three wins by KO, four by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out once (R3 2019) and the only time he’s ever lost a decision was against Umar Nurmagomedov in 2018. Five of his seven finishes have come in the first round, one ended in round two, and the most recent was in round three. Kakhramonov started his career at 145 lb, but moved down to 135 lb in 2018.
Overall, Kakhramonov is an explosive striker and a dangerous grappler. He gets a little wild at times as he looks to kill his opponents with every shot, which tends to drain his cardio later in fights. He’s still just 27 years old and seems to be continuing to improve every time we see him. He’s a Judo black belt and a BJJ brown belt and has shown he can hold his own against high level wrestlers. In his two UFC fights, Kakhramonov has landed 12 takedowns on 23 attempts (52.2% accuracy), while getting taken down only twice by his opponents on 10 attempts (80% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” but Nurmagomedov will have a 1” reach advantage and is three years older than the 27-year-old Kakhramonov.
This is a fascinating matchup between two highly skilled up-and-comers. Nurmagomedov has been the flashier finisher early on in matches, while Kakhramonov recently showed the ability to dominate a fight for three full rounds. Both guys are dangerous when it comes to both striking and grappling, but Kakhramonov has shown more when it comes to offensive wrestling. However, Nurmagomedov has a nasty guillotine that Kakhramonov will need to be aware of everytime he looks for a takedown. Kakhramonov has shown in the past that he’s perfectly content with keeping fights standing when it suits him, so it’s hard to know what his game plan will be coming into this one. Nurmagomedov has still never been in a fight that ended in a second or third round finish, so if that trend continues there’s a good chance this one makes it to the judges, especially when you consider how durable both guys have been up to this point in their careers. While the decision could go either way and Nurmagomedov has been involved in multiple close decisions, Kakhramonov’s wrestling is the tiebreaker for us and we’ll say he gets his hand raised in a close one, but this is not a spot we’re overly confident in.
Our favorite bet here is “Nurmagomedov/Kakhramonov FGTD” at -134.
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DFS Implications:
Nurmagomedov is coming off a pedestrian decision win that scored just 59 DraftKings points, after posting back-to-back slate-breaking scores (118 & 122) in a pair of first round finishes that both took less than a minute. He also has another first round finish in the UFC that was good for 107 points and another decision win that scored just 69. All 18 of his pro fights have either ended in the first round (8-0) or gone the distance (8-2). When you combine that with the fact that he’s only landed two takedowns in six UFC fights and averages just 4.15 SSL/min, it’s clear to see that he’s a boom or bust fighter who relies on first round finishes to score well. Now he’ll face a tough opponent who’s only been finished once in his career, which was in the third round of a 2019 match. Even at his reasonable price tag, we don’t see Nurmagomedov cracking tournament winning lineups without a finish. The one other interesting dynamic we have going on here is that the line flipped for Kakhramonov late in the week, which should lower Nurmagomedov’s ownership, as he’s now technically overpriced. The odds imply he has a 48% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Kakhramonov is coming off a slate-breaking performance where he scored 130 DraftKings points in a decision win, as he landed 10 takedowns with over 12 minutes of control time. Now priced at just 8K on DraftKings, that should drive his ownership up despite the tough matchup, especially after the line flipped in his favor. Kakhramonov is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, although so is his opponent in this matchup. That makes it a tougher spot to break down, as we have the potential for either guy to finish the other or for it to be more of a stalemate. We’ve yet to see anyone fill up the statsheet in any of Nurmagomedov’s six UFC fights, making it harder to trust Kakhramonov to score well if he doesn't land a finish, and Nurmagomedov has notably never been finished. While that’s not overly encouraging, between his explosiveness and wrestling ability, Kakhramonov still has upside in this spot, but his floor is much shakier than normal. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Jake Matthews
17th UFC Fight (11-5)Coming off his first KO win since 2015, Matthews’ striking looked much improved in his recent second round finish of Andre Fialho. Prior to that, Matthews suffered his only loss in his last five fights, in a third round submission against Sean Brady. Despite Matthews being a BJJ black belt with seven submission wins on his record, Brady, who’s also a BJJ black belt, had a clear advantage on the mat. Matthews has actually been submitted in the third round in each of his last two losses, with his second most recent defeat coming in a 2018 third round submission against Anthony Rocco Martin. Matthews is 7-2 in his last nine fights, with five of those wins going the distance. Despite being just 28 years old, Matthews already has 16 UFC fights to his name after he joined the organization at just 19 years old.
In Matthews’ last fight, Fialho pressured forward early, but didn’t land many strikes. We saw a slow start to the first round, before the round ended with a flurry of strikes from both guys. Matthews landed a huge left hand early in round two that had Fialho backing up, and Matthews began applying pressure as he pushed Fialho back against the cage and continued to land clean shots. Midway through the round, Matthews crumpled Fialho along the fence with a flurry of punches and the fight was stopped. Matthews finished ahead 47-18 in significant strikes and 47-19 in total strikes, while neither fighter attempted a takedown.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Matthews has five wins by KO, seven by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has one decision loss. His lone KO loss came in the first round of a 2016 fight against Kevin Lee when Matthews was still fighting down at 155 lb. He followed that up with a decision loss at Lightweight, before moving back up to 170 lb in 2017, where he started his career and has stayed since 2017. He went 4-3 in the UFC at 155 lb, with all four of those wins coming early. Since moving up to 170 lb, he’s gone 7-2 with five of his seven wins going the distance. Both of his losses at 170 lb ended in third round submissions. Eight of his last 10 fights have made it to the third round, with six ending in decisions. He’s won the last five decisions he’s been to, and the only time he hasn’t gotten his hand raised with the judges was in a 2016 split decision.
Overall, Matthews has always been pretty well-rounded, but looked like a completely different animal on the feet in his last match. Prior to that impressive knockout, Matthews’ only other UFC KO/TKO came in a 2015 doctor stoppage following the second round. Matthews has good mobility, which helps him to avoid taking much damage, and he only averages 3.17 SSL/min and 2.18 SSA/min. He’s also a pretty good wrestler with four UFC submission wins and seven in his career. He averages 1.9 TDL/15 min, with a 41% takedown accuracy. No one has ever landed more than 50 significant strikes on Matthews in his UFC career. At the same time, Matthews has only landed above 63 significant strikes once, which was when he totaled 72 against a washed Diego Sanchez in 2020. Matthews has landed 22 takedowns in 16 UFC fights, but failed to land any takedowns in four of his last six fights, so his wrestling has been sporadic.
Matthew Semelsberger
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Alex Morono, Semelsberger has now gone the distance in his last two and four of his six UFC fights. Just before losing to Morono, he was a close decision over a debuting A.J. Fletcher, after landing a 15 second first round knockout against a terrible Martin Sano. Semelsberger lost another decision leading up to that finish, this time against Khaos Williams. Semelsberger’s other early finish in the UFC was a 16 second KO win over Jason Witt, after Semelsberger won a decision over a terrible Carlton Minus in his August 2020 UFC debut. We’ve consistently seen Semelsberger exert his will on low-level fighters, but fight to close decisions, generally losing, against more legitimate competition. Three of his four UFC wins were against opponents making their respective UFC debuts, and the other was against an incredibly chinny Jason Witt, who recently retired after getting knocked out in four of his six UFC fights.
In Semelsberger's last fight, Alex Morono damaged Semelsberger’s eye in the first round, which immediately swelled up to the point that it looked like it might end the fight. However, Semelsberger fought through it and continued to push forward. Morono did a good job of landing his shots while staying out of danger in the striking exchanges, but did get dropped in the opening seconds of the third round with a flying knee. Nevertheless, he hung on to win a decision and has now won six of the last seven decisions he’s been to. Morono finished ahead in significant strikes 106-74 and in total strikes 119-86, but failed to land any of his four takedown attempts, while Semelsberger landed his only attempt in the fight.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Semelsberger has six knockouts, one submission, and three decisions. His last three finishes all ended in first round knockouts, but the first four early wins of his career all ended in the later rounds, with three ending in round two. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. His two early losses both ended in the third round early in his career and no one has finished him since 2018. Semelsberger started off as a 205 lb amateur before dropping down to 185 lb when he went pro. He then dropped down to 170 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Semelsberger has solid striking and the drive to push the pace in fights. He hasn’t shown much in terms of grappling and is still pretty green in general, but has the physical tools to be successful and has pretty good size for the division. He averages a healthy 4.9 SSL/min and 5.17 SSA/min and has landed all four of his takedown attempts in his six UFC fights. He’s also been taken down 4 times on 11 opponent attempts (63.6% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Semelsberger will have a 2” height and reach advantage. He’s also two years older than Matthews, despite turning pro five years later than him.
This is another really tough test for Semelsberger, who so far has only shown the ability to beat low-level opponents at the UFC level. While Semelsberger has solid power, Matthews has only been knocked out once in his career, which was all the way back in 2016. Matthews will also have a massive grappling advantage, should he choose to use it. Semelsberger is also durable himself, so we’d be surprised to see Matthews land another knockout here, but a submission win for the BJJ black belt is certainly possible. Just keep in mind, he only has one submission victory since 2016, which came in 2018. More likely, Matthews will grind out a decision victory through a combination of striking and grappling, and we’re taking Matthews by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Matthews R3 or DEC” at +105.
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DFS Implications:
Matthews is coming off a second round knockout win over Andre Fialho that was good for a somewhat modest 99 DraftKings points. That’s Matthews’ first finish since 2018 and only his second KO/TKO win in 16 UFC appearances. To his credit, he looked like a different fighter out there and appears to have made significant improvements to his striking, so perhaps we’ll see a more aggressive version of him moving forward. Historically, he hasn’t been a major DFS contributor. He’s averaged 92 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC wins, but that number is somewhat propped up by two big scores in his first three UFC fights. In his last eight victories, he’s averaged a less exciting 85 points. To his credit, he’s generally shown a decent floor, scoring at least 82 points in 9 of his 11 wins. However, he’s only hit 100 points once in his last eight fights, making it tougher for him to return value at his expensive price tag. Working in his favor, he’ll have a massive grappling advantage in this matchup, should he choose to use it. That raises his DraftKings appeal, where he could still score well in a decision if he’s able to dominate this fight on the ground. It’s really hard to see him ending up in winning lineups on FanDuel without a finish and even on DraftKings he fails more often than not either with a later finish or in a decision. This is a similar stylistic matchup to Matthews’ last one and he opted not to use his grappling there, so it’s hard to know if he’ll again look to showcase his striking or if he’ll be more willing to take the path of least resistance and look for takedowns. If the fight stays standing we could see it turn into an exciting brawl, but if it hits the mat Matthews should be able to easily control the action. The odds imply he has a 71% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Semelsberger unsurprisingly put up massive scores (126 both times) in his two first round knockouts that each came in the opening 16 seconds of those fights, but he also notably scored 103 points in a decision victory in his UFC debut. In fairness, that came in a dream spot against a terrible opponent in Carlton Minus. Semelsberger’s most recent decision win scored just 63 DraftKings points, and he totaled 52 and 26 points in his two decision losses. He throws a good amount of striking volume, averaging 4.99 SSL/min and 5.17 SSA/min, but doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. That’s where he could get in trouble in this fight, as he takes on a BJJ black belt in Matthews. Semelsberger’s knockout power always keeps him somewhat in the DFS discussion, but Matthews has only been knocked out once in his career, which was all the way back in 2016. That appears to leave Semelsberger as a hail mary KO or bust option in the toughest matchup of his career. The odds imply he has a 29% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Cheyanne Vlismas
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Just over a year removed from a decision win over Mallory Martin, Vlismas had been scheduled to face Tabatha Ricci back in October but ended up withdrawing. Vlismas recently divorced UFC fighter JP Buys, separated from her striking coach, and moved to Georgia (the country not the state), so her life and training routine has been flipped upside down over the last year or so. Prior to her last decision win, Vlismas was dangerously close to landing an illegal kick as she rifled one off to the head of Gloria de Paula just as De Paula was standing up. However, the kick was just barely clean and then Vlismas completed her first UFC win with ground and pound for a 60 second R1 TKO. In her prior UFC debut, Vlismas lost a smothering decision against Montserrat Ruiz and tried to start a fight after the fight, which seems redundant. Seven of her last eight fights have ended with the judges. Vlismas punched her ticket to the UFC with a unanimous 30-27 decision win on DWCS in August 2020. While she failed on both of her takedown attempts in the match, she stuffed all five of her opponent’s attempts.
In her last fight, Vlismas was able to circle around the outside of the Octagon while piecing Mallory Martin up for essentially the entire fight. After not looking for any takedowns in the first round, Martin finally tried to look to her grappling advantage in rounds two and three, but failed to land any of her five takedown attempts. However, Martin was able to control Vlismas along the fence at times in each of the rounds despite being unable to get the fight to the ground. Nevertheless, whenever the fight returned to space, Vlismas dominated the striking exchanges and she finished ahead in significant strikes 134-80 and in total strikes 146-106.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Vlismas has two wins by TKO and five decision victories. One of her TKO wins came in the third round of her 2018 pro debut, with the other ending in the first round of her second UFC fight. Both of her losses have also gone the distance.
Overall, Vlismas fights on pure aggression and seems nuttier than chunky peanut butter. During her DWCS fight, she aggressively barked at her grounded opponent to “Get the fuck up” only to be scolded by the ref for her language. Later in the fight she verbally reminded herself that she can’t headbutt and after the fight she called Dana White out for not responding to her on Instagram after she’s been “DM’ing him for two years.” She then took his phone out of his hands and appeared to follow herself with it. Then after she got smothered in her UFC debut she screamed at her opponent “I’ll follow you home bitch!” So there’s never a dull moment with her and there is a 100% chance she has keyed a few cars in her time. While she had no answer for the head and arm throws of Montserrat Conejo, who landed four of her five takedown attempts in her UFC debut, Vlismas has successfully defended the other 10 takedowns attempted against her between her three UFC fights and DWCS appearance. So overall she’s been taken down 4 times on 15 opponent attempts (73.3% defense). Vlismas is a solid striker and averages 5.83 SSL/min but just 2.93 SSA/min.
Cory McKenna
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Fresh off her first early win since 2019, McKenna submitted Miranda Granger in her last fight. Just keep in mind, we’ve seen Granger go to sleep faster than a narcoleptic sloth in the past and she was immediately cut following her third straight loss. Prior to that second round submission win, McKenna had fought to three straight decisions, including a split-decision defeat to one-dimensional striker Elise Reed in her second most recent fight, which took place in her home country of England. Leading up to the loss, McKenna won a decision in her UFC debut over Kay Hansen after defeating Vanessa Demopoulos in another decision on DWCS just before that. After winning the decision over Kay Hansen in her November 2020 UFC debut, McKenna didn’t compete in 2021 as she dealt with health concerns and an ankle injury, before returning in March 2022 to lose a decision, so perhaps ring rust played a factor.
In her last fight, McKenna was able to get the fight to the ground just over 90 seconds into the first round and controlled Granger on the mat for the remainder of the round. As soon as the second round started, McKenna looked for another takedown and eventually was able to complete it. Granger looked to defend it with a half-hearted guillotine attempt, which she foolishly never let go of. McKenna used that to secure a Von Flue Choke, which Granger quickly tapped to. That was notably the first time any female UFC fight has ever completed a Von Flue Choke. The fight ended with both ladies landing 13 significant strikes, but McKenna led in total strikes 43-14, while landing three of her four takedown attempts with nearly five minutes of control time and two official submission attempts.
Now 7-2 as a pro, McKenna has two wins by TKO, two by submission, and three decisions. She’s never been finished, with both of her losses going the distance. Both of her TKO wins occurred in round one, while each of her submission victories came in round two. Impressively, McKenna has never faced an opponent with a losing record in her career.
Overall, McKenna is still very green at just 23 years old. She has T-Rex arms with just a 58” reach and stands just 5’3”. She’s essentially a one-dimensional grappler, but at her young age she should be improving between every fight. Training both for MMA and powerlifting since she was a young teenager, McKenna is the first female Welsh fighter in the UFC, but she now trains out of Team Alpha Male with Maycee Barber and Xiaonan Yan, so at least she has some other professional fighters around her. Between her three UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, McKenna has landed 7 takedowns on 13 attempts (53.8% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’3” but Vlismas will have a 5” reach advantage and is four years older than the 23-year-old McKenna.
This is a pure striker versus grappler battle that will simply come down to whether or not McKenna is able to get the fight to the mat. We’ve seen Vlismas do a good job of defending takedowns in two of her last four fights, but she got absolutely dominated on the mat in her UFC debut. However, she’ll have a massive striking advantage and will dominate the striking exchanges on the feet. McKenna has landed three takedowns in each of her last two fights and had more of a sense of urgency to get the fight to the mat in her most recent outing. Just keep in mind, that was against a much lower level opponent, and McKenna’s inability to defeat another one-dimensional striker in Elise Reed is concerning. This is a tricky spot to make a prediction, as either fighter could dominate depending on where the fight takes place. However, we expect McKenna to at least find some grappling success to make this a close fight. All of the changes in Vlismas’ life also adds some uncertainty as her training routine completely changed for this matchup and it’s unclear how many, if any, UFC caliber wrestlers she worked with to prepare. That leaves us inclined to take the dog shot on McKenna, but it’s far from a comfortable pick as we expect her to get mauled on the feet. Nevertheless, given the odds and the circumstances, we’ll take McKenna by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “McKenna DEC” at +250.
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DFS Implications:
Vlismas is coming off a decision win that scored 86 DraftKings points after landing a 60 second R1 KO that was good for a slate-breaking 135 points with the help of the DraftKings Quick Win Bonus. That remains her only finish since her 2018 pro debut, and while Vlismas is a solid striker, it’s still rare to see her knock anybody out. Now she’ll face a wrestler, making it harder for Vlismas to score well in a decision, as we expect her to be controlled for periods of time. However, Vlismas will have a massive striking advantage and a sizable reach advantage, so if she can stay out of the clinch we could see her put up a big striking total from distance. That’s easier said than done and Vlismas has been too easily controlled for periods of time in the past to feel confident that she can avoid being controlled for periods of time in this fight. At her expensive price tag, that likely leaves her reliant on being the first fighter to ever finish McKenna to return value. The odds imply she has a 63% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
McKenna is coming off her first finish in the UFC, which was good for 105 DraftKings points in a second round submission. That came against a low-level opponent in a dream matchup, so it’s important to understand the context around it. McKenna hadn’t been overly impressive prior to that, but is still just 23 years old so we’re willing to cut her some slack and chalk up some of her earlier struggles to growing pains. While this is a much tougher matchup than her last one, McKenna will have a massive grappling advantage as she takes on a one-dimensional striker, who completely changed everything in her life leading up to this matchup. The uncertainty surrounding Vlismas’ training over the last year makes this a more volatile spot, and it’s hard to know what improvements, if any, she has made to her grappling. Regardless, from a pure upside perspective, McKenna has the potential to dominate this fight on the ground and grind out a decision win, with a slight chance she could lock up a submission. She likely needs a finish to score well on FanDuel, but a grappling-heavy decision victory has a good chance to be enough on DraftKings for her to be useful, especially given her cheap price tag. Just keep in mind, if McKenna is unable to get this fight to the ground, we expect her to get absolutely mauled on the feet, and if this ends up being a closer back and forth fight, then there’s a good chance neither fighter scores enough to crack winning lineups. The odds imply McKenna has a 37% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Michal Oleksiejczuk
10th UFC Fight (5-3, NC)This slot on the card has been a complete game of musical chairs. Originally, Albert Duraev had been scheduled to face Bruno Silva. Then, Silva dropped out and Oleksiejczuk in. However, then Duraev dropped out and Brundage stepped in. Brundage had been set to face Rodolfo Vieira in mid November, but Vieira dropped out in the week leading up to the event and Brundage had since been waiting for a new opponent. So while Brundage officially stepped into this matchup on just 15 days’ notice, he had previously been preparing for a fight less than a month ago.
Oleksiejczuk is fresh off a first round knockout win over Sam Alvey, which is generally how we see Oleksiejczuk win fights, as four of his five UFC wins have come by R1 KO. That win over Alvey came in Oleksiejczuk’s first UFC fight down at 185 lb, after he dropped down from 205 lb. The only other time he’s ever competed at 185 lb was in his 2014 pro debut, which he won by decision. He’s always been undersized and overweight at 205 lb, so it’s not at all shocking that he’s made the move down to 185 lb that people had been making for him for years, especially considering he lost his last fight at 205 lb in a decision to Dustin Jacoby.
Oleksiejczuk originally came into the UFC in 2017 with a 12-2 record and on a nine fight winning streak. However, after winning his 2017 UFC debut by decision over Khalil Rountree in 2017, Oleksiejczuk tested positive for a banned estrogen blocker and was suspended for a year along with the results of the fight being overturned to a No Contest. Upon his return, he landed a pair of first round knockouts, but was then submitted in back-to-back fights by Ovince St. Preux and Jimmy Crute. He then righted the ship with a split-decision win over Modestas Bukauskas followed by a first round knockout of Shamil Gamzatov, leading up to his decision loss to Jacoby.
In his last fight, Oleksiejczuk came out of the gates firing and dropped Alvey 45 seconds into the first round. Alvey was narrowly able to survive with a long leash from the ref and returned to his feet after getting assaulted on the mat. At that point, Alvey shot for a desperation takedown with no success and then quickly got dropped a second time and the fight was immediately stopped. It ended with Oleksiejczuk ahead 22-3 in significant strikes and 40-3 in total strikes, with two knockdowns landed in a fight that lasted just 116 seconds.
Now 17-5 as a pro, Oleksiejczuk has 12 wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. His last seven and nine of his 12 KO wins ended in round one, with the other three coming in round two. His lone submission win occurred in the second round of a 2016 match. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has one decision loss. His lone KO loss came in the first round of a 2014 fight, while two of his three submission defeats also ended in round one, with the other coming in the first half of round two. Six of his last eight UFC fights have ended in under a round and a half, with five of those taking less than four minutes.
Overall, Oleksiejczuk is a pure striker who’s constantly pressuring his opponents and looking for violent body shots out of the southpaw stance. He’s only landed one takedown in his last eight fights and really doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling. In his nine UFC fights, Oleksiejczuk has been taken down 10 times on 20 attempts (50% defense), although the majority of that damage was done by Jimmy Crute, who took him down 8 times on 10 attempts. It will be interesting to see how Oleksiejczuk fares against a wrestler in this next matchup.
Cody Brundage
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After originally planning on facing a world-class grappler in Rodolfo Vieira four weeks ago, Brundage will now face a completely different challenge, as he squares off against a one-dimensional striker in Oleksiejczuk. Working in Brundage’s favor, his teammate, Dustin Jacoby, recently fought Oleksiejczuk, so their team has already had to prepare for him once. Brundage has finished each of his last two opponents in the first round, after losing a wrestling-heavy decision in his September 2021 UFC debut against Nick Maximov. The first of those two finishes came against Dalcha Lungiambula, who was absolutely putting it on Brundage before getting caught in a hail-mary guillotine. Brundage’s most recent finish was against Tresean Gore, who for what it’s worth claimed to have a brutal weight cut leading up to the fight.
In his last match, Brundage wasted no time looking to wrestle, as he shot for his first takedown 10 seconds into the first round. Gore did a decent job of momentarily fighting it off, but Brundage was still able to eventually land it. While Gore was able to return to his feet, Brundage held onto him for a while until the two finally returned to space 90 seconds in. Gore landed some good leg kicks, but wasn’t setting them up and Brundage finally timed one and dropped Gore with a big right hand. Gore tried to hang on as Brundage pounced on top of him on the mat, but was quickly rendered unconscious with ground and pound. The fight ended with Brundage ahead 15-8 in significant strikes and 23-8 in total strikes, while he landed one of his official two takedown attempts with 78 seconds of control time.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Brundage has four wins by KO, three by submission, and one decision. Five of his seven finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one second round finish and another in round three. He has one decision loss and the only time he’s been finished came in a R1 KO on DWCS in 2020 against William Knight. That fight took place at 205 lb and Brundage has fought anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb throughout his career.
Overall, Brundage is a former college wrestler, but is still pretty raw on the feet. He sometimes gets caught admiring his own handiwork after he lands a shot, and doesn’t appear to have the highest fight IQ. However, he’s still relatively early in his career with just 10 pro fights to his name and he only turned pro in 2019. Brundage trains at elevation out of Factory X and is married to former UFC fighter Amanda Bobby Brundage who went 2-4 with the organization before being released. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Brundage has landed just three takedowns on 10 attempts (30% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” but Oleksiejczuk will have a 2” reach advantage. Despite turning pro five years earlier, Oleksiejczuk is a year younger than the 28-year-old Brundage.
This is an interesting striker versus grappler matchup, although Brundage is a better striker than Oleksiejczuk is a grappler. With that said, Oleksiejczuk will have a significant striking advantage and if Brundage can’t get this fight to the ground, he’ll be in real trouble early on. Oleksiejczuk is far less dangerous in the back half of fights, but it will be essential for Brundage to find early wrestling success if he wants to remain in possession of his consciousness. Neither of these two are very familiar with the third round, as 70% of Brundage’s fights have ended in the first two rounds, as have 78% of Oleksiejczuk’s. If Brundage is unable to get the fight to the ground in the first round, we like Oleksiejczuk to knock him out. However, if Brundage is able to make this a wrestling match, he has a good shot at locking up a submission. And even if Brundage can’t find a finish on the mat, if he can simply control Oleksiejczuk, we should see Oleksiejczuk slow down and Brundage will have a good chance to either land a later finish or grind out a decision win. That all makes Brundage very live in this fight, but we’re still not entirely sold on him as a talent and we like Oleksiejczuk to overwhelm him on the feet early on and knock him out in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -130.
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DFS Implications:
Oleksiejczuk is an aggressive one-dimensional striker who’s landed first round knockouts in four of his five UFC wins. He averaged an insane 123 DraftKings points in those four knockouts, but only scored 59 points in his lone UFC decision victory. He recently moved down from 205 lb to 185 lb for his last fight, which only lasted 116 seconds. Therefore, we have a near non-existent sample of what his durability and cardio look like at the new weight class. That adds some additional uncertainty to this already volatile matchup. While Oleksiejczuk will have a massive striking advantage in this fight, he’s been prone to getting submitted throughout his career and Brundage is a wrestler with multiple submission wins on his record. That leaves Oleksiejczuk as a boom or bust option who has a really good chance of landing a first round knockout, but could also get taken down and submitted on the mat. Even before he was cutting down to 185 lb, we’ve seen Oleksiejczuk slow down later in fights, and when you factor in his expensive price tag, he looks like a R1 KO or bust play. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Brundage’s wrestling heavy fighting style raises his floor on DraftKing, but with seven of his eight career wins coming early, he’s squarely in play on both sites. He’s going against a dangerous but one-dimensional striker with potential cardio concerns, who’s been prone to getting submitted. Overall this looks like a favorable stylistic matchup for Brundage, at least from an upside perspective. However, Oleksiejczuk is incredibly dangerous and is light years ahead of Brundage when it comes to striking. So if Brundage doesn’t get this fight to the mat early on, he’ll be at serious risk of getting knocked out, leaving him also as a boom or bust play. While Brundage stepped into this matchup on just over two weeks’ notice, he had been preparing for a fight in November until Rodolfo Vieira dropped out. Brundage also trains at elevation with Factory X, so we’re not overly concerned about his cardio. The most likely outcome here is that Oleksiejczuk knocks Brundage out in the first round, but if that doesn’t happen, we like Brundage’s chances of pulling off the upset and scoring well. The odds imply he has a 30% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Drew Dober
19th UFC Fight (11-7, NC)Coming off a pair of KO/TKO wins, Dober has only required the judges in one of his last eight fights, which was a 2021 decision loss to Brad Riddell. Dober’s only other loss in his last seven matches came in a third round submission against Islam Makhachev, just before his loss to Riddell. Dober’s last five wins all ended in knockouts, while four of his last five losses ended in submissions. He most recently knocked out Rafael Alves with a body shot in the third round, after finishing Terrance McKinney in round one just before that.
In his last fight, Dober got taken down early in the first round by Rafael Alves and controlled for a couple of minutes, before returning to his feet in the final 90 seconds of the round. Dober came out aggressive in round two as Alves appeared to be tiring. Dober spent the round pressuring Alves against the cage with punches, while nearly doubling Alves up in striking in the round. Dober’s thumb caught the eye of Alves as Dober threw a punch, which gave Alves a couple of minutes to catch his breath. Following the pause in the action, Alves caught a brief second wind and we saw the two guys sling bombs at each other to close the round. Alves tried and failed to land a takedown just before the second round ended and then unsuccessfully tried again to start round three, and at that point didn’t appear to have much left in the tank. Dober continued to walk him down along the fence and then crumpled him with a body shot 90 seconds into the third round to force an immediate stoppage. The fight ended with Dober ahead in significant strikes 62-37 and in total strikes 62-46, while Alves landed one of his three takedown attempts.
Now 25-11 as a pro, Dober has 12 wins by KO, six by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2011), submitted four times, and has six decision losses. Fifteen of his 18 early wins have come in the first two rounds, although he did just land a third round knockout in his most recent fight. His only other two third round finishes were all the way back in 2010 and 2012. Four of his five early losses occurred in the first two rounds, with the one exception being a R3 arm-triangle submission loss to Islam Makhachev.
Overall, Dober is a powerful and durable brawler who generally comes out ahead in firefights, but often struggles against grapplers. While Dober has six submission wins on his record and wrestled some in high school, he’s definitely not a grappler. His background is primarily in Muay Thai and Taekwondo, where he’s a black belt, although he is also a BJJ brown belt for what it’s worth. He’s got a fire hydrant for a head and the best way to attack him is with submissions. In his last five fights, Dober has been taken down 14 times on 26 opponent attempts and has just a 54% career takedown defense.
Bobby Green
20th UFC Fight (10-8-1)Green had been scheduled to face Jim Miller back in July but failed a drug test in May after he tested positive for DHEA and was handed a six-month suspension. Green explained that he purchased the supplement at Walmart and had no idea it was banned and the suspension came as a total shock. We have no reason not to believe him and it just sounds like an unfortunate accident. Green is coming off his first early loss since 2016 in a R1 ground and pound TKO against Islam Makhachev, in a fight that Green took on just over a week’s notice and just two weeks after he previously fought. Prior to that, Green landed a career best 188 significant strikes in a decision win over Nasrat Haqparast. That came just after Green knocked out a washed up Al Iaquinta in the first round, which was Green’s first finish in his last 17 fights dating back to a 2013 R1 TKO over James Krause. Green fought to 10 straight decisions prior to that knockout (4-5-1), after getting knocked out in the first round by Dustin Poirier back in 2016.
In Green’s last fight, Makhachev had been scheduled to face Beneil Dariush, but Dariush withdrew due to an injury and Bobby Green was announced as the replacement on extremely short notice. Makhachev took Green down just under two minutes into the first round and worked his way to full mount. Green rolled to his back and covered up and Makhachev forced a stoppage through ground and pound. The fight ended with Makhachev ahead in significant strikes 14-9 and in total strikes 30-11, while he landed one of his two takedown attempts with just under two minutes of control time.
Now 29-13-1 as a pro, Green has 10 wins by KO, eight submissions, and 11 decision victories. He has three KO/TKO losses, two submission defeats, and eight decision losses. However, three of those early losses came in 2010 or prior and he’s been extremely durable. Almost all of Green’s early wins also came early in his career, and he’s largely settled into being a decision grinder.
Overall, Green is a high-volume striker who likes to put on a show, but rarely ends fights early. His hands-by-his-side fighting style provides a unique look for opponents to deal with and makes it tough to see Green’s punches coming. Green has always been one to feed off the crowd and tends to shine in the spotlight, but after fighting on three straight PPV cards in 2021 and 2022, this will be his second straight fight at the Apex in Las Vegas without any real crowd to speak of. With a high school wrestling background, Green is a capable grappler with a solid 72% takedown defense, but his last six opponents to attempt a takedown have all landed at least one. In his last 10 fights, he’s been taken down 9 times on 33 attempts, while he’s landed 12 takedowns of his own on 23 attempts over that stretch. However, he’s failed to land a takedown on just three attempts in his last four fights and claims he has the ability to wrestle but would rather put on exciting striking battles.
Fight Prediction:
Green will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. Dober is just two years younger than the 36-year-old Green.
This sets up as an exciting striking battle between two longtime UFC veterans. However, while Dober rarely requires the judges, the vast majority of Green’s fights go the distance. Obviously something will have to give there, and based on how durable both of these guys are, we’ll say this fight makes it to the scorecards. Both guys wrestled in high school, but they each generally prefer to keep fights standing and we expect this fight to play out on the feet, unless someone gets badly hurt and shoots for a desperation takedown. Dober is the more powerful striker, while Green is the busier of the two. So while Dober may land the more impactful shots, we expect Green to finish ahead in striking. It’s always hard to know which of the two the judges will value more, which leads us to believe that this ends in a close, potentially split, decision that could go either way. Green has been to six split decisions in his career (3-2-1), so he’s no stranger to close decisions, and we’ll say he squeaks out a close decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Dober/Green FGTD” at -150.
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DFS Implications:
Dober has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his 11 UFC victories, with eight of those wins coming early. He’s shown a decent floor in his three decisions wins, averaging 89 DraftKings points, but has never scored more than 92 points without a finish. That’s unlikely to be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups in a decision victory, leaving him reliant on landing a knockout. We aren’t expecting Dober to be looking for takedowns, and even if we’re wrong about that, Green has a solid 72% takedown defense, while also only averaging 3.65 SSA/min. While Green got finished on the mat by Islam Makhachev in the first round of his last fight, he’s historically been very durable and this looks like a tougher spot for Dober to get him out of there. Even in his recent third round KO win, Dober still scored just 80 points, and totaled “just” 96 points in his last second round knockout victory. So even a later round finish may not be enough, making it even tougher to get excited about playing Dober here. The odds imply Dober has a 57% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Green has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, despite seven of those going the distance. While seven of his last eight wins have come in decisions, he’s scored 98 or more DraftKings points in his last four victories. Just keep in mind, his most inspired performances come in front of live crowds, whereas this fight will be back at the Apex with barely any fans. Green averages 5.88 SSL/min (3rd most on the slate) and has the ability to mix in takedowns sporadically when he chooses to. However, we expect this to play out as an uptempo striking battle, and Green will likely need to put up another huge striking total to score well, as he’s unlikely to find a finish. While Dober is prone to getting submitted and Green has eight submission wins on his record, Green hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013 and is very open about wanting to stand and bang to put on exciting fights. That likely relegates Green to the value play discussion, but he should have a solid floor here and has a decent chance of sneaking into winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Julian Erosa
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Entering this matchup on a three fight winning streak, Erosa has impressively gone 6-1 in his last seven fights. While his last two matches both went the distance, his previous six fights all ended early. His most recent decision victory came against a tough Hakeem Dawodu, who missed weight for the first time in his career, by 3.5 lb no less, and never really showed up to the fight. Based on the weight miss and his performance, there’s a decent chance Dawodu was injured coming into that fight and he looked nothing like his normal self. Prior to that, Erosa won a high-volume split decision over Steven Peterson in a wild brawl, where Peterson also missed weight by 3 lb. Erosa originally made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in 2015, but after starting 1-1 he was released in 2016. He then worked his way back into the organization through DWCS in 2018, but lost three straight fights and was released in 2019. However, after winning one fight on the regional scene, the UFC brought Erosa back to fight Sean Woodson on short notice and Erosa landed a third round submission win and followed it up with a R1 KO victory over Nate Landwehr. Erosa then got knocked out by Seung Woo Choi in the first round, before landing another third round submission win leading up to his pair of recent decision wins.eros
In his last fight, Erosa appeared to have Dawodu hurt midway through the first round with a combination of punches that had Dawodu looking to clinch to buy time to recover. Erosa hurt Dawodu again later in the round and looked close to finding a finish, but Dawodu was able to barely hang on and survive the round as time expired. Dawodu appeared to recover between rounds, but Erosa was able to land a take down midway through the second round and took his back as he returned to his feet and dragged him back to the mat. Erosa spent the next two and a half minutes fishing for a choke and beating him up while he controlled him for the remainder of the round. Erosa seemed to be playing it safe in round three, before landing a takedown with 90 seconds remaining. After Erosa controlled Dawodu for a minute on the mat, Dawodu was ankle to turn into him with 20 seconds remaining in the fight, and then returned to his feet for the closing seconds. Erosa cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win and finished ahead in significant strikes 92-74 and in total strikes 152-90. He also landed two of his six takedown attempts with over four minutes of control time.
Now 28-9 as a pro, Erosa has 11 wins by KO, 12 by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out five times, has four decision losses. Three of his KO losses occurred in round one, while one ended in round two and the other round three. Two of his last three submission wins came in the third round of Catchweight fights he took on short notice. He only has one KO win since 2018. Erosa mostly fights down at 145 lb, where he’s gone just 3-4 in the UFC, while he’s gone 1-1 in the UFC at 155 lb and 2-0 at 150 lb Catchweight. Three of his four 145 lb UFC losses have come by KO. Erosa might as well be named the King of Catchweights, as he’s 5-0 in Catchweight fights in his career, with all five of those wins coming early. Two of his last three finishes in the UFC have come by R3 submission in short notice 150 lb Catchweight matches. He also had three finishes in 150 lb Catchweight matches outside of the UFC.
Overall, Erosa is a fearless brawler who also possesses dangerous submission skills, but has shown a suspect chin at times. He would be a prime candidate for a 150 lb division, as he’s gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, and has been more prone to getting knocked out at 145 lb. He averages 6.26 SSL/min (2nd most on the slate) and 6.30 SSA/min (most on the slate). He’s landed two or more takedowns in his last four fights to make it out of the first round, while none of his last six opponents have taken him down. In his six fights since returning to the UFC in 2020, Erosa has landed 10 takedowns on 22 attempts (45.5% accuracy), while stuffing both of the attempts against him.
Alex Caceres
27th UFC Fight (14-11, NC)Looking to bounce back from his first loss in his last six fights, Caceres dropped a decision to a really tough Sodiq Yusuff in his last fight, after winning five in a row prior to that. That winning streak began with a decision win over Steven Peterson, followed by another decision victory over a very green Chase Hooper, who was making his second UFC appearance and was just 20 years old. He then landed a first round submission against a short notice replacement in Austin Springer, who was making his UFC debut and never fought again. Caceres then won another decision, this time against Kevin Croom, who went 0-3 plus a No Contest in the UFC before being released. Caceres’ most impressive win over the five fight stretch was against Seung Woo Choi. After nearly getting knocked out and then taking an illegal knee to the head in the first round, Caceres opted to continue and fought his way back into the fight and then three minutes into round two Caceres was able to take Choi’s back on the feet and lock up a rear-naked choke.
In his last fight, Caceres landed an early takedown in the opening 30 seconds of the fight, but was unable to control Sodiq Yusuff, who quickly returned to his feet. Shortly thereafter, Yusuff caught one of Caceres’ kicks and used it to take him to the mat, which is the only takedown Yusuff has landed in eight UFC appearances. While the first round was largely uneventful, Yusuff began landing heavy leg kicks in round two to take over in the fight. Yusuff landed 19 leg strikes in round two and 12 more in round three, leaving Caceres’ base very compromised. The overall striking numbers were close, with Caceres actually finishing ahead in significant strikes 66-64 in the fight, while Yusuff led in total strikes 74-71. Both fighters landed one takedown on three attempts apiece. While the stats were almost even, Yusuff was the one doing more damage with his leg kicks and he cruised to a unanimous decision win.
Now 19-13 as a pro, Caceres has three wins by KO, seven by submission and nine decisions. He’s only been knocked out once in his career (R1 2015), but has been submitted seven times and has lost five decisions. Four of those seven submission losses notably occurred in 2011 or prior, and he’s only been finished twice in his last 14 fights dating back to 2015—both times by submission (2017 & 2019). If we include the split-decision win over Kyung Ho Kang that was later overturned to a No Contest when Caceres tested positive for THC, seven of his 15 career decisions have been split (4-3). Caceres’ last nine fights have now all ended in either decisions (4-2) or submissions (2-1). In 26 UFC fights, his only win by TKO/KO came in a 2017 match where the fight was stopped following the second round due to his opponent suffering an eye injury. His other two TKO wins came prior to joining the UFC. On the other side of things, the only time he’s ever been knocked out came 21 seconds into the first round of a 2015 UFC match.
Caceres made his UFC debut in 2011 at 145 lb, but after starting 0-2 with the organization he dropped down to 135 lb later that year. He stayed at 135 lb until 2015, going 5-4 plus a No Contest (originally a decision win) in his next 10 fights, before moving back up to 145 lb in 2016 following three straight losses at 135 lb. He’s since stayed at 145 lb and is now 9-7 at 145 lb in the UFC.
Overall, Caceres is a longtime UFC veteran who joined the organization all the way back in 2011 and will be stepping into his 27th UFC fight. He has a fluid karate style that utilizes a lot of kicks, but leaves his lead leg vulnerable to getting beat up. He’s worked on his wrestling in recent years, to shore up what had been his biggest deficiency, and despite having seven submission losses on his record, it’s been nearly four years since anyone submitted him. In his last UFC 10 fights, he’s landed three takedowns on six attempts (50% accuracy), while only giving up nine takedowns on 42 opponent attempts (78.6% defense). His karate style approach to fighting generally results in somewhat lower volume striking battles as he averages 4.15 SSL/min and 2.92 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Erosa will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Erosa has good size for the 145 lb division and has spent much of his career fighting at 155 lb. Whether it’s the weight cut down to 145 lb or just the way he’s built, three of his four UFC losses at 145 lb have come by knockout. Working in his favor in this matchup, Caceres isn’t much of a knockout threat, with just one KO/TKO win in 26 UFC appearances. While Erosa has often fought at 155 lb, Caceres competed at 135 lb in 10 of his 26 UFC fights, so it’s no surprise he’ll be the smaller man in this matchup. Caceres has shown improved grappling recently, but Erosa has notably never been submitted in his career, making it unlikely that Caceres finds a finish of any type here, thus leaving him reliant on outlanding his way to a decision win.
Erosa generally does a good job of putting up big striking totals, while also mixing in takedowns, but Caceres’ 64% career takedown defense has improved to 78.6% in his last 10 fights, and you can tell he’s been working on his grappling. Also, no one has ever landed more than 78 significant strikes on Caceres in a three-round fight and he has a solid 64% striking defense. Erosa is far more prone to getting hit himself, which should result in this being a close fight if it makes it to the score cards, which it’s expected to by the oddsmakers. If Caceres can control the distance and remain on his feet, we like his chances of outlanding his way to a close, potentially split, decision win. However, if Erosa can get the fight to the ground, he’s got a decent chance of locking up a submission or at least grinding out a decision victory of his own through a combination of striking and grappling. Erosa is the more powerful of the two, so he also has a better chance of landing knockdowns or at least the more impactful shots. However, Caceres has the durability advantage, with just one KO loss on his record, compared to five for Erosa. So overall, these two appear fairly evenly matched and we like it to end in a close decision that will likely hinge on whether or not Erosa is able to land any takedowns. We’ll say Caceres wins by split decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Caceres DEC” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Erosa has averaged 105 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with 97 or more points in his last five victories. He’s an aggressive brawler, who averages 6.26 SSL/min (2nd most on the slate) and 6.30 SSA/min (most on the slate). He’s also landed at least two takedowns in his last four fights that have made it out of the first round, so he generally does a good job of filling up the stat sheet. However, Caceres is a tough guy to score well against, with a 64% striking defense as well as a 64% takedown defense that has risen to 78.6% in his last 10 fights. Caceres has also only ever been knocked out once, and most of his submission losses occurred earlier in his career. At Erosa’s high price tag, he’ll likely need a finish here to return value, despite his recent two decision wins scoring 97 and 112 DraftKings points. While Erosa historically hasn’t been overly popular, it will be interesting to see if his recent sustained scoring bumps his ownership up some. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Caceres has historically struggled to score well in DFS, averaging 84 DraftKings points in his 14 UFC wins. He’s only topped 98 points twice in 26 UFC appearances—a 2017 R2 TKO win where he scored 105 points and a 2016 decision victory where he scored 116 as he completely filled up the stat sheet. With that said, he’s shown a pretty decent floor recently, with DraftKings scores of 91, 76, 98, and 92 in his last five wins. Just keep in mind, two of his last three wins came by submission, and now he’ll face an opponent who’s never been submitted. Nine of 14 UFC wins have gone the distance, and he’s averaged 79 DraftKings points in those fights, with six scores of 76 or less. Working in his favor, Erosa averages 6.30 SSA/min (most on the slate), so it’s a good pace-up spot for Caceres. He’ll still likely need more than just striking on the stat sheet to really score well in a decision, but at his cheap price tag he’s certainly in the value play discussion. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Amir Albazi
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Albazi had originally been scheduled to fight Alex Perez here but then Perez dropped out and Brandon Royval stepped in. However, then Royval broke his wrist and dropped out and Alessandro Costa was announced as the replacement on November 22nd.
Entering this matchup on a four fight winning streak and 3-0 in the UFC, Albazi has landed first round submissions in three of his last four fights. He made his UFC debut in July 2020 and submitted Malcolm Gordon late in the first round, before winning a close decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his second fight with the organization. Then most recently he landed another first round submission, this time against Francisco Figueiredo.
In his last fight, Albazi was able to catch one of Figueiredo’s kicks early on and use it to take him to the mat. While Figueiredo was able to return to his feet at one point, Albazi got him back to the mat in the final 90 seconds of the round. Following a failed heel hook attempt from Figueiredo, Albazi took his back and quickly locked in a rear-naked choke to force a tap with just under 30 seconds remaining in the first round. Albazi finished ahead in significant strikes 12-11 and in total strikes 23-14, while landing two of his four takedown attempts, with just over two and a half minutes of control time.
Now 15-1 as a pro, Albazi has four wins by KO, nine by submission, and two decisions. Nine of those 13 finishes came in the first round, with the other four ending round two. His last five early wins have all come by first round submission. His only career loss ended in a 2019 decision. Albazi started his pro career off at 135 lb, but moved down to 125 lb in 2017, where he stayed until his short notice UFC debut, which was fought back up at 135 lb. He dropped back down to 125 lb following that match, and it appears that’s where he’ll stay.
Overall, Albazi is a slick grappler who looks to put opponents away early on the mat. He’s also a decent striker, but his last KO/TKO win was all the way back in 2015 and he hasn’t looked like much of a threat to finish fights on the feet so far in the UFC. In his three UFC fights, he’s landed five takedowns on eight attempts (62.5% accuracy), while getting taken down once on three opponent attempts (66.7%).
Alessandro Costa
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on a seven fight winning streak, Costa is fresh off a 12 second first round knockout win. Prior to that, he went on DWCS in July and won a split decision, but wasn’t awarded a contract following the lackluster fight. Leading up to that decision win, Costa landed two more knockouts on the Mexican regional scene and three of his last four wins have come by KO.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, as Costa knocked his opponent out in just 12 seconds with a huge right hand. Looking back one fight further at his DWCS appearance, we saw a slower paced fight, with neither fight landing more than 16 significant strikes in either of the first two rounds. However, Costa was able to land a knockdown in the second round and then we saw a slight uptick in striking volume in round three. It was still overall a low-volume affair, with Juan Andres Luna finishing ahead in significant strikes 49-45. They finished even in total strikes at 53 apiece, while Luna failed to land his four takedown attempts in the fight, while Costa never attempted a takedown.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Costa has three wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. Eight of his nine finishes have come in the first round. The first five wins of his career all ended in first round submissions with his one other submission coming in 2019, also in the first round. All three of his career knockout victories have come in his last four fights and all three of his decision wins have occurred in his last six matches. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2016 R2 TKO in his third pro fight. His only other loss was a 2018 split decision.
Overall, Costa is a patient striker who has decent power for the Flyweight division. He’s also a BJJ black belt who has shown the ability to quickly lock up submissions when fights hit the mat and loves to look for armbars. However, we also saw him get easily reversed on the mat on DWCS, so it’s hard to know how his grappling will stack up at the UFC level. He’s the Luxe Fight League Flyweight Champion and won a five-round decision in 2020, so he doesn’t appear to have any cardio concerns. He’s getting a really stiff test in his debut here, so the UFC definitely isn’t doing him any favors.
Fight Prediction:
Albazi will have a 1” height and reach advantage, in addition to being three years older than the 26-year-old Costa.
While Costa will be making his UFC debut on three and a half weeks’ notice here, he looks decently equipped to remain competitive in this matchup as he’s a BJJ black belt and a powerful striker. With that said, he’s still pretty young and we don’t know how he’ll respond to fighting in the UFC for the first time. Albazi is really dangerous on the ground and one slip up from Costa is all Albazi needs to lock up a submission. Costa hasn’t been fighting a super high-level of competition, and also hasn’t had to operate off his back much in recent fights. That makes it tougher to know how he’ll look in his debut and leaves us with a wider range of potential outcomes. While Costa has shown decent finishing ability, we expect the step up in competition to be too much for him to handle. Look for Albazi to win with either a submission in the first two rounds or by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Albazi DEC or SUB (D)” at -200.
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DFS Implications:
Albazi has landed first round submissions in two of his three UFC fights, returning DraftKings scores of 107 and 112 in those two finishes. Sandwiched in between those two submissions, he scored 79 points in a decision win, and has yet to show the ability to score well without a finish. That’s not to say it can’t happen, as he’s primarily a grappler, but he doesn’t push a super high pace and only landed two takedowns in his lone decision win. As the most expensive fighter on the slate, his price tag will also make it tougher for him to return value without a well timed finish. And even if he does get a finish, it’s still possible he gets priced out of the winning lineup. While this looks like a favorable matchup as he takes on a UFC newcomer who accepted the fight on less than four weeks’ notice, Costa is notably a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted in his career. He also hasn’t faced any grapplers like Albazi, so it’s tougher to know how good his defensive grappling actually is. That makes this a higher variance spot, but Albazi looks like a high floor, high ceiling play. The odds imply he has a 79% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Costa’s split-decision win on DWCS would have been good for just 60 DraftKings points and 59 points on FanDuel, despite landing a knockdown in that fight. Costa was extremely patient in that match and never attempted any takedowns, but is notably BJJ black belt with half a dozen submission wins on his record. While he has power in his hands, his patient approach isn’t ideal for DFS production and now he’ll be making his UFC debut against a dangerous grappler who’s never been finished. Not only is there the strong potential for Costa to get submitted early in this match, even if he can survive, he’ll have a tough time scoring well without a finish of his own. So despite being the cheapest fighter on the slate, he’s unlikely to crack tournament winning lineups even if he does somehow win a decision. That leaves him reliant on being the first fighter to ever finish Albazi. The odds imply Costa has a 21% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Arman Tsarukyan
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Looking to bounce back from a decision defeat, Tsarukyan lost a close five-round decision to Mateusz Gamrot in his last match. Prior to that, he had won five straight fights, with his last two wins both ending in TKOs in the first two rounds. Those are his only two UFC fights to end early, with his other five matches going the distance. He’s still just 26 years old and has won 17 of his last 19 fights, with his only other loss over that stretch coming by decision in his UFC debut against the current Lightweight champion in Islam Makhachev.
In his last fight, Tsarukyan was able to take Gamrot down in the first round, but Gamrot quickly returned to his feet. That was the only takedown Tsarukyan was able to land in the fight on eight attempts. The match was filled with crazy scrambles on the mat as Gamrot landed 6 of his own 21 takedown attempts and finished ahead in control time 4:58-1:39. After Tsarukyan won the first two rounds on all three scorecards, Gamrot came back and took the last three rounds to win a unanimous 48-47 decision. Tsarukyan finished ahead in significant strikes 95-81 and in total strikes 110-108.
Now 18-3 as a pro, Tsarukyan has seven wins by KO, five by submission, and six decisions. The only time he’s been finished came in a 30 second R1 KO in his second pro fight back in 2015 when he was just 19 years old, with his other two losses going the distance against high-level wrestlers. Eleven of his last 12 fights have seen the second round, with 10 making it to round three, and eight going the distance. His last four finishes have all come by KO/TKO, with one in round one, another in round two, and two in round three. He hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017, two years prior to joining the UFC.
Overall, Tsarukyan is a high-level wrestler who also has solid striking. We’ve seen him transform from a bright prospect to an up-and-coming contender as he’s broken into the top 10 of the Lightweight rankings, but he can ill afford to lose two in a row if he wants to continue his ascent to the top of the stacked Lightweight division. Tsarukyan has landed 17 takedowns on 51 attempts (33.3%) in his seven UFC fights, while he’s been taken down 10 times on 40 attempts (25%) by his opponents. Four of those takedowns surrendered were against Islam Makhachev in Tsarukyan’s UFC debut, while the other six came in his recent five-round fight against Gamrot. Tsarukyan is 4-0 in the UFC when he’s led in takedowns and 0-2 when he’s trailed, while he also has a first round TKO win where no takedowns were landed. He only averages 3.76 SSL/min and 1.86 SSA/min and we’ve yet to see him involved in any high volume striking battles. He’s a smart fighter who generally avoids putting himself in dangerous situations, and the same could be said about his next opponent.
Damir Ismagulov
6th UFC Fight (5-0)Coming off a close split-decision win over Guram Kutateladze, Ismagulov has won 19 straight fights, with all five of his UFC fights going the distance. He’s only fought twice in the last three and a half years and hasn’t been very active. He would have fought a third time, but he had an October 2021 fight canceled after he missed weight by an insane 7.5 lb. He’s faced a series of tough opponents in his last four fights, as he defeated Joel Alvarez, Thiago Moises, Rafael Alves, and Guram Kutateladze.
In his last fight, we saw a patient approach from both guys, before Kutateladze began landing some big shots in the last two minutes of the first round to get ahead early on the scorecards. Ismagulov had a better second round to even the fight at one round apiece. The third round was extremely close and in the final 30 seconds Kutateladze landed a knee that appeared to land on the chest of a grounded Ismagulov. However, Herb Dean stopped the action, claiming it was an illegal knee to the head. Ismagulov was given time to recover and the position was taken away from Kutateladze, potentially swinging the pivotal round, which ended up being split on the score cards. The fight ended with Ismagulov barely ahead in significant strikes 79-78 and in total strikes 83-80. Ismagulov failed to land any of his six takedown attempts, while Kutateladze landed one of his seven attempts. The result came down to a single swing scorecard in the third round and couldn’t have been any closer.
Now 24-1 as a pro, Ismagulov has 12 wins by KO, one by submission, and 11 decisions.He’s never been finished and his only career loss came in a 2015 decision in his sixth pro fight. All five of his UFC matches and seven of his last eight fights have now gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2018 R1 TKO win resulting from an opponent’s hand injury. Prior to joining the UFC, Ismagulov was notably fighting on the tough M-1 Russian circuit, so he’s accustomed to facing stiff competition.
Overall, Ismagulov is a really tough, well rounded fighter, but has yet to finish anybody in the UFC. He has a good jab, stays defensively sound, and has a rock-solid 90% takedown defense, making him a tough opponent to prepare for. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed 7 takedowns on 25 attempts (28% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down once on seven opponent attempts (90% defense). He averages 4.05 SSL/min and 2.56 SSA/min, outlanding all five of his UFC opponents, and only once absorbing more than 38 significant strikes in a fight. While he’s not the most exciting fighter, he’s a proven winner and has a high fight IQ.
Fight Prediction:
Ismagulov will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also five years older than the 26-year-old Tsarukyan.
This sets up as a high-level chess match between two talented Russian-based fighters. They’re each very well rounded, so it will be interesting to see how each guy looks to attack the other. Our expectation is that Tsarukyan will still be looking to get the fight to the ground, while Ismagulov may be more content with keeping it standing in an effort to outland his way to another decision win. They each have very solid takedown defenses, especially Ismagulov who’s only been taken down once on 11 opponent attempts (90% defense). If that holds up and he can keep this fight standing, we like his chances of working behind his jab to finish ahead in striking and win another close decision. While Tsarukyan is an exceptional talent and a solid wrestler, we could see him begin to slow down some later in the fight, which will leave him more reliant on winning both of the first two rounds to get his hand raised in a decision. That’s certainly possible if he can be the first fighter to ever control Ismagulov on the mat, but based on Ismagulov’s elite takedown defense, that will be no easy task. Because of that, we’re taking the dog shot here and picking Ismagulov to win by decision, but we expect it to be a close one.
Our favorite bet here is “Tsarukyan/Ismagulov FGTD” at -200.
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DFS Implications:
Tsarukyan has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, scoring 110 or more in the last three of those, after notching totals of just 86 and 82 in the first two. His recent scoring success has been tied to his ability to land finishes and/or dominate opponents on the ground. Now he’ll face the elite 90% takedown defense of Damir Ismagulov, who has only been taken down once on 11 attempts in 15 rounds of UFC action, and only controlled for 79 seconds since joining the UFC (1.76% of his total Octagon time). So on paper at least, this looks like one of the toughest matchups Tsarukyan could ask for. Ismagulov is also taller and longer than Tsarukyan, which could make it tougher for Tsarukyan to find his range on the feet. We saw Tsarukyan struggle to score well in decisions earlier in his UFC career, and this looks like a spot where he’ll most likely need a finish to be useful. Not only has Ismagulov never been finished, he’s won 19 straight fights dating back to 2015. So Tsarukyan will have a tough enough time winning this fight, let alone scoring well. It will be interesting to see what the field does here, as Tsarukyan has historically been fairly popular and put up massive scores in his last three wins. This looks like a trap spot that you’ll likely want to avoid for the most part in tournaments, but that obviously carries some risk based on his past scoring success. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Ismagulov has fought to five straight decisions since joining the UFC and has yet to show any sort of finishing upside since joining the organization. He’s used to fighting a high level of competition and that won’t change here as he faces an incredibly talented young fighter in Tsarukyan. While Ismagulov is a well-rounded fighter who can win fights both on the feet and the mat, this is a tough matchup for him yo land takedowns against the 75% defense of Tsarukyan, and Ismagulov may not even want to go to the ground with Tsarukyan. That will make it really tough for Ismagulov to score well in a decision, and in his three UFC wins where he failed to land a takedown, he only averaged 64 DraftKings points. So even at his cheap price tag, he’s still unlikely to end up in tournament winning lineups unless we get another slate where only a couple of underdogs win. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Sean Strickland
17th UFC Fight (12-4)Strickland will be looking to bounce back after getting knocked out by Alex Pereira in the first round of his last fight. Leading up to that loss, Strickland had won six straight fights, with his last three wins all going the distance. His most recent two decision wins both came in five-round fights, with one against Uriah Hall and the other against Jack Hermansson. The last time he finished anybody was in November 2020, when he knocked out Brendan Allen in the second round.
In his last fight, Strickland showcased his non-existent fight IQ as he opted to stand and trade with Alex Pereira opposed to at least trying to utilize his grappling advantage. After poking the bear for two and a half minutes, Strickland took a left hook to the jaw from Pereira that knocked him to the mat. Badly hurt, Strickland tried to return to his feet but immediately got dropped again with a right hand to end the fight. The match ended with Pereira ahead 25-15 in striking with no takedowns attempted on either side.
Now 25-4 as a pro, Strickland has 10 wins by KO, four by submission, and 11 decisions. He has two decision losses, while both of his early losses ended in first round knockouts. The first of those knockout losses came in 2018 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a 170 lb fight and the most recent coming in his last fight against Alex Pereira at 185 lb. Those are the only two times in Strickland’s last 15 matches that we’ve seen his fights end in the first round. Ten of his last 15 fights have gone the distance, while all three of his early wins over that stretch came in rounds two and three. He’s won the last five decisions he’s been to, with his last decision loss coming in 2017 against Kamarua Usman.
Strickland joined the UFC in 2014 at 185 lb, but after starting out 2-0 he moved down to 170 lb for a three year stretch from 2015 to 2018 where he went 5-3. Following a 2018 R2 TKO win at 170 lb, Strickland was forced into a 2-year layoff following a motorcycle accident and a career-threatening knee injury. Upon his return, he moved back up to 185 lb where he has since gone 5-1, extending his UFC 185 lb record to 7-1.
This will be Strickland’s 3rd five-round fight in the UFC. He won decisions in his previous two, in his recent victories over Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson. Strickland also had five fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC, all of which he won, with three first round knockouts and two decisions.
Overall, Strickland likes to constantly inch forward while pumping out his jab, as he appears content with outpointing his way to victory. He’s shown us at multiple points that he’s far more concerned with securing wins than looking for finishes, but he also recently demonstrated that he would rather lose a striking battle than win a wrestling match.
In his six fights since returning to 185 lb, Strickland has landed five takedowns on seven attempts. Four of those takedowns and six of those attempts were against Uriah Hall, while he also took Brendan Allen down once on his only other takedown attempt in his last six matches. Strickland is 12-0 in the UFC when he’s led in striking and 0-4 when he’s trailed, and his success stems almost entirely from his ability to outland his opponents.
Jared Cannonier
15th UFC Fight (8-6)After years of working towards a title shot as he transformed his body from a 240 lb Heavyweight to a 185 lb Middleweight, the 38-year-old Cannonier finally got his chance against Israel Adesanya and handedly lost a lopsided decision. Prior to that, Cannonier landed a second round knockout of Derek Brunson following a five-round decision win over Kelvin Gastelum. He could have gotten his title shot sooner, but just before his win over Gastelum, Cannonier lost a decision to Robert Whittaker. That was his first loss at 185 lb in the UFC, after he knocked out his first three opponents at the weight class. He actually made his UFC debut all the way up at Heavyweight in 2015, but after starting off 1-1 he dropped down to Light Heavyweight. He went 2-3 at Light Heavyweight before making another move, all the way down to Middleweight in 2018, where he’s since gone 5-2.
In Cannonier’s last fight, Adesanya did a good job of controlling the distance, piecing Cannonier up from the outside, and staying out of danger. The most success Cannonier found in the fight was tying Adesanya up in the clinch along the fence for brief periods of time in the later rounds. Overall, it was an uneventful fight and Adesanya cruised to a unanimous decision win, as he outlanded Cannonier 116-90 in significant strikes and 163-141 in total strikes, while stuffing all four of Cannonier’s takedown attempts.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Cannonier has 10 wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Both of his submission wins came very early in his career, in 2011 and 2013, when he was still fighting in Alaska. While the first five knockout wins of his career ended in round one, four of his last five KO wins occurred in the later rounds, with three in round two and one in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice, and has three decision defeats. Both of his KO losses ended in the first round, although one of those was at Heavyweight and the other was at Light Heavyweight. He’s never been finished at 185 lb.
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Cannonier’s UFC career. His first was in 2019 against Jack Hermansson and he won in an early second round KO. Then in 2021, he defeated Kelvin Gastelum by decision, before losing a five-round decision to Adesanya most recently.
Overall, Cannonier is a powerful but patient striker, who throws violent leg kicks and has demonstrated a really good takedown defense since dropping down to 185 lb, as he’s successfully defended 32 of the 39 attempts from his opponents at Middleweight (82%). He only averages 3.73 SSL/min and has never landed more than 90 significant strikes in a UFC fight, which was in his recent five-round decision loss. In his five-round decision win over Gastelum, Cannonier landed just 81 significant strikes. Cannonier tends to throw less leg kicks against grapplers, but will really let loose against pure strikers. It’s rare to see Cannonier land takedowns and he’s only attempted eight in 14 UFC fights, landing two of those.
Fight Prediction:
Strickland will have a 2” height advantage, but Cannonier will have a 1” reach advantage. Strickland is seven years younger than the 38-year-old Cannonier.
Strickland is the more active fighter in this matchup, but Cannonier has a major power advantage. It’s hard to see Cannonier outlanding Strickland, and it’s unlikely that Strickland can knock Cannonier out. We’re not expecting either guy to look for takedowns, and even if one of them did, they both have solid takedown defenses. It would be shocking to see this end in a submission, leaving the only two likely outcomes being a Cannonier knockout or a Strickland decision. Neither of those two outcomes would surprise us, but we’re leaning Strickland wins by decision. With that said, keep in mind that Cannonier throws violent leg kicks and Strickland had a terrible knee/leg injury that jeopardized his entire fighting career, so who knows how he’ll handle the kicks of Cannonier.
Our favorite bet here is “Strickland DEC” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Strickland won a pair of five-round decisions in two of his last three fights, scoring 93 and 144 DraftKings points respectively in those two victories. The 144 point score included a high striking total, four takedowns, and seven minutes of control time. However, it’s rare to see Strickland grapple much and in his other five most recent fights he only attempted one total takedown. In addition to that, Cannonier’s career 65% takedown defense has shot up to 82% since he dropped down to 185 lb. That likely leaves Strickland almost entirely reliant on putting up another huge striking total to score well, as he’s unlikely to land a finish. Working against him, Cannonier only averages 3.50 SSA/min and also has a ton of power that Strickland will need to respect. With Strickland coming off a KO loss, it’s also possible he’s a little more cautious here. In Cannonier’s two five-round decisions, Kelvin Gastelum landed 89 significant strikes against him, while Adesanya landed 116. No other opponent has ever landed more than 69, although none of his other fights have lasted longer than three rounds. Despite landing more strikes on Cannonier than anyone else ever has, Adesanya still scored just 86 DraftKings points and 90 points on FanDuel in the win. A similar score for Strickland here wouldn’t be enough for him to be useful, but he has historically been a much busier fighter than Adesanya when it comes to striking (5.54 vs. 3.93 SSL/min). Whether or not Strickland can continue that against Cannonier is yet to be seen. Ultimately, Strickland will either need to secure a finish (unlikely) or land more strikes on Cannonier than anyone ever has to be useful in DFS. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Cannonier is a patient low volume striker, who averages just 3.73 SSL/min and has only landed two takedowns in 14 UFC appearances. He scored just 74 DraftKings points and 81 points on FanDuel in a five-round decision win over Kelvin Gastelum, despite landing a knockdown in that fight. Cannonier spent his entire career working towards a title shot, and after failing to capitalize on that, it’s unclear where his head will be at coming into this fight. Regardless, it looks like he’ll need to land a knockout to win this fight and score well. Four of his last five early wins came in the later rounds, and he averaged just 92 DraftKings points in those four knockouts. While that could still be enough for him to serve as a value play at his cheaper price tag, to really lock up a spot in winning lineups it appears he’ll need a first round finish. The only time he’s finished anybody in the first round since 2016 was in a leg kick TKO against Anderson Silva in 2019. While Strickland did just get knocked out in the first round, he’s historically been fairly durable but has been knocked out twice in his career, with both of those ending in the first round. The line has been moving in Cannonier’s favor, which should drive his ownership up some, reducing his tournament appeal to some extent. If this ends up being a higher scoring slate with multiple underdogs scoring well, it will be hard for Cannonier to crack winning lineups without a first round knockout win. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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