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Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Rayanne dos Santos
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Dos Santos recently lost a questionable split decision in her UFC debut against a wrestler in Talita Alencar, who was also making her debut with the organization. Dos Santos outlanded Alencar 57-36 in significant strikes and 80-48 in total strikes, while Alencar was only able to land 1 of her 9 takedown attempts. Dos Santos started fast in the fight, outlanding Alencar 34-11 in the first round, but we did see her pace slow in the later rounds, which left things close enough for interpretation on the scorecards. Prior to making her UFC debut at 115 lb, Dos Santos won the Invicta Atomweight belt down at 105 lb in a five-round decision over the 38-year-old Jillian DeCoursey. That was Dos Santos’ second straight decision win down at 105 lb, but she competed up at 125 lb just before that, where she locked up a first round submission win. That came after she went on DWCS at 115 lb and lost a hardfought, but unanimous 30-27 decision to Denise Gomes. Leading up to that loss, Dos Santos finished four straight opponents, with three first round armbars and a second round TKO, but those wins should be taken with a grain of salt as the four opponents entered with a combined 0-7 record. Nevertheless, Dos Santos has won 7 of her last 9 fights.
Now 14-7 as a pro, Dos Santos has two TKO wins, eight submissions, and four decision victories. Both of her TKO wins ended in round two, while all eight of her submissions occurred in round one, with the last seven of those ending in armbars. Just keep in mind, most of her wins have come against a low level of competition. On the other side of things, she has one TKO loss, one submission defeat, and five decision losses. Her TKO loss came from a 2019 post R1 doctor stoppage after Dos Santos had her jaw broken by Isabela de Padua, who later went 0-1 in the UFC. Dos Santos has competed anywhere from 105 lb to 125 lb, but most of her career has been spent at 115 lb.
Overall, Dos Santos is a BJJ black belt, but is mostly content with keeping fights standing. She will mix in takedowns when opportunities present themselves, but she’s in no rush to get fights to the ground and hasn’t been overly impressive with her grappling. However, she’s shown a decent takedown defense and does have eight submission wins on her resume. Between her recent UFC debut and her DWCS appearance, Dos Santos landed just 1 of her 5 takedown attempts (20% accuracy), while her opponents only got her down on 1 of their 9 attempts (88.9% defense). She seems decent everywhere, but doesn’t stand out anywhere. She was durable enough to go three rounds with a heavy-handed brawler in Denise Gomes, but still lost every round of that fight. Dos Santos is just 5’2” and not overly muscular, so we could see her struggle with the size of some of the opponents she’ll see in the UFC. However, that’s less of a concern here as she faces a short opponent who also has competed down at 105 lb in the past.
Puja Tomar
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut, Tomar becomes the first female Indian fighter to ever join the organization. She’s won four straight fights, with the last three of those ending by TKO, but context is always key. The first of those finishes came against a girl that looked like she got lost looking for the bathroom and stumbled in the cage, the second was arguably a quick stoppage, and the most recent came when her opponent quit after the fourth round in a fight where the only damage done was through thigh kicks. Tomar’s last loss was in 2020 when she got dominated on the mat by a striker and finished with ground and pound. Tomar’s last four fights were all with the unheralded Matrix Fight Night Indian promotion, after she tried fighting with the more legitimate One Champion promotion from 2017 to 2020 but went just 1-3 with three early losses and one split decision win. Tomar originally made her pro debut all the way back in 2013, but after winning her first two fights that year she then didn’t compete again until 2017, going just 2-4 in her next six outings.
Now 8-4 as a pro, Tomar has six wins by KO/TKO and two split decision victories. She’s been finished in all four of her losses, with three submissions and one TKO, with the last three of those losses all coming in under a round and a half. Tomar has competed anywhere from 105 lb to 135 lb, but was fighting at 105 lb as recently as 2022.
Overall, Tomar is a striker with a Wushu background and comes in with a kick-heavy approach, while not appearing to have a ton of power. While she’s capable of unloading with flurries of strikes, she gets wild in those exchanges, leaving her open to be countered. Her wrestling has looked bad and we’ve seen her get physically dominated on the mat in the past. The UFC is listing her at 5’4”, but there’s not a chance in hell she’s that tall and her previous organization listed her at 5’1”. That will likely result in her getting overpowered on the ground against anyone that can wrestle even half decently.
Fight Prediction:
The UFC lists Tomar at 5’4”. That is not correct and past organizations have listed her at 5’1”, which is the number we’ll use. Dos Santos will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This is a low-level matchup between two women who have both competed at 105 lb at times in the past. Tomar has looked terrible on the mat, but despite Dos Santos being a BJJ black belt she’s generally content with keeping fights standing. We’ve seen Dos Santos slow down late in fights, while Tomar’s last match went 20 minutes and she never slowed down. So a longer fight could play into Tomar’s favor. Dos Santos is the more well rounded fighter, but seems pretty clueless when it comes to putting it all together. If she’s smart, she’ll come in with a grappling-heavy gameplan, but we have no confidence that she’ll do that. Tomar’s kick-heavy approach leaves her with the ability to outpoint her way to victory from distance and she’s very live to win an uneventful/close decision if the fight remains standing. We’ll be looking to aggressively fade Tomar in the future when she faces a wrestler, but this doesn't appear to be the spot to do it. Dos Santos is not someone to be trusted and seeing her as a massive favorite speaks more to the current state of the UFC roster than her actual skill level. Give us Tomar to win a close decision in a bad low-volume fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Dos Santos/Tomar FGTD” at -130.
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DFS Implications:
Dos Santos has gone the distance in three straight and four of her last five fights. While she has 10 finishes on her record, those were all against an incredibly low level of competition and she hasn’t looked like any sort of potent finisher. While she’s decently well-rounded, she hasn’t stood out anywhere and doesn't fight very smart. She’s a BJJ black belt with a grappling background, but is often content with keeping fights standing and we’ve seen her slow down late in fights before. She’s only 5’2” so she’s not very tall, and she’s competed at 105 lb in the past. She only averages 3.73 SSL/min and only landed one takedown between her DWCS match and her recent UFC debut. The only way she’ll really score well here is with a finish in 60 seconds or a surprising amount of wrestling success. Her most likely path to finding a finish would be via submission, and at her high price tag she could submit Tomar and still easily get priced out of winning lineups. While this is a high-upside matchup, Dos Santos is a low-upside fighter. The odds imply Dos Santos has a 75% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Tomar is a one-dimensional striker who has really struggled on the mat and also doesn’t put up huge striking numbers. She’s undersized and has competed at 105 lb in two of her last four fights. However, the same can be said about Dos Santos, so that may end up being less of a factor in this matchup. Tomar will be at risk of getting submitted if this fight hits the ground, but Dos Santos hasn’t looked like a great wrestler and only landed one takedown with very little control time on DWCS against another striker in Denise Gomes. That’s encouraging for Tomar’s chances of keeping the fight standing, but we don’t see her scoring especially well in a decision and her chances of finding a finish are very low. For her to be useful as a value play, she’ll likely need very few other underdogs on the slate to win and this isn’t a fight where we’re excited to play either fighter. The odds imply Tomar has a 25% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Taylor Lapilus
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Lapilus recently had a six-fight winning streak snapped in a wrestling-heavy decision loss against a dangerous grappler in Farid Basharat, who took Lapilus down on 5 of his 16 attempts and finished with seven minutes of control time. Prior to that, Lapilus made his return to the UFC in front of his home Paris crowd. Lapilus squeaked out a close 29-28 decision win over a UFC newcomer in Caolan Loughran, after both of their matchups got shuffled midweek, leaving neither guy with much time to prepare for the other. Lapilus again spent much of the fight defending takedowns along the fence, but Loughran was only able to land 2 of his 11 takedown attempts. Lapilus originally went 3-1 with the UFC from 2015 to 2016, but then wasn’t re-signed despite his winning record. He won a decision in his 2015 UFC debut, and then landed a second round TKO, before losing a decision in his third fight. He bounced back with a decision win in 2016, but then left the UFC and tried his hand at boxing for one fight, where he won a 2017 decision. He returned to MMA after that and then spent the next six years on the regional scene working his way back to the big show. They actually decided to bring him back for the previous Paris card, but he was forced to withdraw due to hand injury and then didn’t compete for 17 months before his last fight, after winning the vacant Ares FC Bantamweight belt in April 2022. None of Lapilus’ first three UFC wins aged well, so it’s worth pointing out the context. His first win was against Rocky Lee, who had three pro fights at the time, was making his UFC debut, got cut following the loss, and has since gone 1-5. Then Lapilus defeated Yuta Sasaki, who finished 4-5 in the UFC and dropped down to Flyweight after the loss to Lapilus. Finally, Lapilus defeated Leandro Issa, who went 2-2 in the UFC and was cut following the loss to Lapilus. And then Lapilus’ last win with Ares before he rejoined the UFC came against an opponent who hadn’t competed in five years following a PED suspension. He then fought a UFC newcomer in his return to the organization and barely won.
Now 19-4 as a pro, Lapilus has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and nine decision victories. All six of his submission wins occurred in his first nine pro fights, from 2012 to 2014, while three of his four knockouts victories occurred in his last eight matches. However, four of his last five and six of his last eight fights ended with the judges. He’s never been finished and all four of his losses went the distance. Lapilus started his career at 145 lb, but dropped down to 135 lb following his 2015 UFC debut.
Overall, Lapilus is a French striker who hasn’t shown much of a ground game, but does have a solid takedown defense and a good get up game, even if he has been taken down at least once in each of his six UFC fights and multiple times in each of his last three. In his six UFC fights, Lapilus landed two of his five takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 13 of their 59 attempts (77.97% defense). All of his UFC fights have been lower volume affairs and he’s never landed more than 84 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 48. He has good quickness and movement, but doesn’t offer much in the way of power or in terms of wrestling, and also hasn’t submitted anybody since 2014. And while he has shown the ability to quickly return to his feet when he’s been taken down along the cage, he’s looked more helpless off his back out in space.
Cody Stamann
14th UFC Fight (7-5-1)Coming off a torn bicep, Stamann is 13 months removed from a somewhat controversial decision loss to Douglas Silva de Andrade, who landed an illegal upkick in the first round after Stamann took him down. The ref paused the action, but then took away the position on the mat that Stamann had worked hard to obtain. Silva de Andrade ended up winning the first two rounds, while Stamann won round three, and taking away that position may have changed the outcome of what was a close fight. Stamann notably knocked Silva de Andrade down in round three and looked close to finding a finish. Prior to that loss, Stamann won a decision over UFC newcomer Luan Lacerda in front of Lacerda’s home Brazil crowd. Stamann relied on his striking in that match against the dangerous grappling in Lacerda, finishing ahead 103-80 in significant strikes while failing to land a takedown. Just before that, Stamann landed his lone early win in the UFC against the corpse of Eddie Wineland in a 59 second R1 KO. Leading up to those two wins, Stamann dropped three straight, with a pair of decision losses to Jimmie Rivera and Merab Dvalishvili, followed by a 47 second R1 submission loss to Said Nurmagomedov. While two of his last four fights ended in the opening minute, 10 of his other 11 UFC fights went the distance (6-3-1), with the one exception being a 2018 R2 submission loss to Aljamain Sterling.
Now 21-6-1 as a pro, Stamann has seven wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and 12 decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice and has four decision losses. He also fought Song Yadong to a draw, although Stamann arguably won that fight. Eight of Stamann’s nine early wins came prior to joining the UFC. Stamann has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb and it’s no easy weight cut for him to get down to 135 lb. He’s gone 2-1 at 145 lb in the UFC and has actually looked better there, while he’s just 5-3-1 at 135 lb. His most recent loss came in a 140 lb Catchweight.
Overall, Stamann is a former Division II college wrestler and 2008 Michigan Golden Gloves winner, who’s only struggled against top level guys. He’s just a BJJ blue belt and hasn’t submitted anybody since 2016, but he is a solid wrestler. He’s stocky with short arms and outside of his TKO win over the corpse of Eddie Wineland hasn’t looked like any sort of knockout threat. In his 13 UFC fights, Stamann landed 25 of his 63 takedown attempts (39.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 14 of their 59 attempts (76.3% defense). While we’ve seen Stamann get away from his wrestling at times and get caught up in striking battles, he recently said he wants to start wrestling more as that’s what got him here.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’6”, but Lapilus will have a 9” reach advantage and is two years younger than the 34-year-old Stamann.
This is a good test for both guys, as Stamann said he wants to wrestle more and Lapilus is a really tough guy to get down and control. The UFC apparently hates Lapilus, and after not resigning him following a 3-1 start back in 2015, they have given him three straight wrestlers. And while Stamann is a decent striker, his path to victory in this matchup is on the mat. So the winner will likely be determined by how Lapilus’s takedown defense holds up. We’re expecting this to end in a close decision, so we would much rather take the long odds on Stamann opposed to laying the chalk on Lapilus. Stamann by decision will be the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Cody Stamann DEC” at +375.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Lapilus has averaged just 78 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with three of those ending in lower scoring decisions. His only UFC finish was all the way back in 2015 against a struggling opponent, where Lapilus scored 104 DraftKings points in a second round TKO. Lapilus only scored 65 and 61 DraftKings points respectively in his last two decision wins, while he put up just 16 points in his recent decision loss. So he’s shown no ability to score well with the judges. Even if he does land a surprise finish, at his high price tag there’s still a good chance it wouldn’t be enough for him to crack the optimal and we have no interest in playing Lapilus, even at his low projected ownership. The odds imply Lapilus has a 72% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Stamann has been a decision grinder throughout his UFC career, with his only finish coming against a Weekend at Bernie’s stunt double. His other six UFC wins all went the distance, where he averaged 82 DraftKings points and failed to top 84 points in any of his last five. The only time he scored well in a decision victory was in his 2017 UFC debut where he landed a career best eight takedowns against a terrible opponent who went 0-4 in the UFC. Stamann does have the wrestling ability to score well on DraftKings even without a finish, but has only landed three total takedowns in his last six fights. And while he recently said he wants to get back to his wrestling roots, Lapilus is a tough guy to get down and keep there. With that said, at Stamann’s cheap price tag, he may not need to put up a huge score to sneak into winning lineups, so we do like him as a value play and he has a solid scoring floor. The odds imply Stamann has a 28% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Eduarda Moura
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Moura is coming off a completely dominant second round TKO win in her UFC debut against an undersized Montserrat Ruiz. Moura landed all three of her takedown attempts in the fight and finished with six minutes of control time in the seven minute fight. She also finished ahead 57-5 in significant strikes and 102-9 in total strikes. Just before that, she put on another flawless grappling performance in a first round submission win on DWCS. Prior to that, she won the vacant Strawweight belt with the Demo Fight organization in her first career fight down at 115 lb. She only turned pro in March 2022, initially fighting at 135 lb. Her first three pro fights took place over a seven week stretch, all of which she finished in under half a round. She then dropped down to 125 lb in June 2022 and landed another quick finish, before seeing the judges for the first and only time in a September 2022 split decision win for the vacant Flyweight Demo Fight belt. She followed that up with a quick submission win, before working her way down to 115 lb with a 121 lb Catchweight match that she ended with another first round submission. She then saw the second round for just the second time in her career when she landed a R2 TKO just before going on DWCS to capture her second belt. So she’s only had three fights at 115 lb, which can help to explain why she missed weight by 3.5 pounds for her recent UFC debut.
Now 10-0 as a pro, Moura has four wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and one decision victory. Seven of her nine finishes ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. She hasn’t faced much in the way of competition, and only five of her 10 wins came against opponents with winning records. Her win before she went on DWCS came against a 4’11” opponent and the one prior to that was against a 19-year-old child.
Overall, Moura is a relentless grappler who trains with Jailton Almeida at Galpao da Luta in Brazil. She has really good ground and pound and submissions skills and has done a great job of controlling opponents. Between her recent UFC debut and her DWCS match, she landed all four of her takedown attempts, while no one tried to get her down. We still need to see how her skills will translate to the next level as she begins facing a higher level of competition, but she looks like someone to keep an eye on at 115 lb and we have high hopes for her. After missing weight badly for her last fight, she’s definitely someone to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Denise Gomes
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Gomes will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Angela Hill, who landed a career-best five takedowns against Gomes and controlled her for eight minutes. Hill has notably never landed more than two takedowns in any of her other 24 UFC fights. Prior to that, Gomes landed back-to-back TKO wins against a pair of strikers in Yazmin Jauregui and Bruna Brasil. The win over Jauregui came in just 20 seconds, while the finish against Brasil ended in round two. Leading up to those two wins, Gomes lost a wrestling-heavy decision in her UFC debut against Loma Lookboonmee, who took Gomes down four times and controlled her for seven minutes, while Gomes attempted multiple unsuccessful submissions. And to Gomes’ credit, that loss also came on short notice just three and a half weeks after she secured a UFC contract with a decision win on DWCS over Rayanne dos Santos, who will fight alongside her on this card. Before going on DWCS, Gomes landed a pair of third round TKO wins, however, she was losing the most recent of those up until the third round and actually got knocked down twice in round two by former UFC fighter Milana Dudieva, who has lost six of her last seven fights.
Now 8-3 as a pro, Gomes has six wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. The only time Gomes has been finished was in a 2017 R2 TKO in her pro debut, while her last two losses both went the distance. Gomes made her pro debut at 135 lb in 2017, but after getting knocked out in round two she dropped down to 125 lb for her next two fights. She then moved down to 115 lb for a fight in 2021, before moving back up to 125 lb for her next two matches. She dropped back down to 115 lb when she went on DWCS, where she has since stayed.
Overall, Gomes is an aggressive striker with a Muay Thai background. While she’s only 5’2”, she packs a punch and has no problem throwing down. However, she has struggled with her defensive wrestling, and between her DWCS appearance and her four UFC fights, she was taken down 10 times on 19 attempts (47.4% defense). On the other side of things, she landed 4 of her own 12 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), with all but one of those successful takedowns coming against a one-dimensional striker in Bruna Brasil. She’s still just 24 years old so she should be continuing to improve everytime she steps inside the Octagon, but now she’ll face the toughest grappler of her career.
Fight Prediction:
Moura will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Gomes actually fought immediately after Moura on the November Brazil card, so she was warming up in the back while Moura was putting on a grappling clinic in the cage. It’s no secret that Moura is consistently looking to get fights to the ground, which is where Gomes has struggled the most. So stylistically, this is a terrible matchup for Gomes and we expect her to struggle to remain upright. With that said, she has knockout power and will also look for submissions on the mat, so she’s always somewhat live to land a finish. However, her opportunities will be limited as she faces a smothering grappler and it would be very surprising to see Gomes pull off a submission here. That likely leaves her reliant on landing a hail mary knockout before she gets taken down, which is always a tough ask. The tougher question to answer is whether or not Moura finishes Gomes and if so how and when. All nine of Moura’s finishes have come in under eight and a half minutes, including seven in round two. So a finish in the opening round and a half appears likely. She’s capable of locking up submissions or finishing opponents with ground and pound and a lot of that depends on what is given to her, which is tougher to predict. However, since she dropped down to 115 lb, she’s finished two of her three opponents with ground and pound in the second round and we’ll say she keeps that going here with another second round TKO finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Eduarda Moura ML” at -170.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Moura scored a slate-breaking 128 DraftKings points and 127 points on FanDuel in her recent second round TKO win in her UFC debut. Her grappling-heavy style leaves her with a safer floor on DraftKings, but she’s shown a solid scoring ceiling on both sites and 9 of her 10 career wins came early, all in the first two rounds. Her R1 submission win on DWCS would have been good for 111 DraftKings points and 115 points on FanDuel and she looks like an absolute scoring machine. Her ability to control opponents while racking up ground and pound, means she can score well on DraftKings even without a finish, but is more reliant on getting opponents out of there early on FanDuel. Now she’s facing a shorter striker in Gomes who was taken down 4+ times in each of her UFC losses and there’s no reason to think Moura can’t continue to find grappling success. The only downside with her in tournaments is that we expect her to be popular following her recent scoring explosion, but she has a really good shot at leading the slate in scoring. The odds imply Moura has a 64% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Gomes has shown a massive ceiling in her wins, as she scored 133 DraftKings points in a quick first round knockout win over Yazmin Jauregui with the help of the Quick Win Bonus, after putting up 132 points in a second round knockout of Bruna Brasil just before that. However, both of those wins came against strikers and we’ve seen Gomes struggle on the mat, as she was taken down 4+ times in each of her two UFC losses. She’s only 5’2” and will now be taking on a much larger grappler in the 5’6’ Moura and this looks like the worst stylistic matchup that Gomes could ask for. However, we’ve yet to see anyone force Moura into a striking battle and if Gomes can somehow keep the fight standing she’ll have a shot at landing a knockout. However, that’s a really big if and we expect Moura to get Gomes down, control her, and likely finish her. So we’re only looking at Gomes as a hail mary hedge who needs a knockout to pull off the upset, but if that comes to fruition then she’ll very likely end up in tournament winning lineups. Both of her wins notably came where she was a sizable underdog priced at just $6,900, so it’s hard to ever completely count her out. The odds imply Gomes has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
John Castaneda
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Castaneda is coming off a decisive 30-27 decision victory over a talented Kyung Ho Kang, where Castaneda finished ahead 111-88 in significant strikes, while also landing three of his eight takedown attempts. The only knock on the fight was it looked more like a sparring match and at point was anyone close to being finished. With that said, Castaneda did his job and won every round on every scorecard. That was his second straight decision win, after he defeated Muin Gafurov just before that, in another fight where he did a good job of blending his striking and wrestling, as he landed three takedowns and a knockdown. While his last two fights both went to the scorecards, his previous three all ended early (2-1). In the most recent of those finishes, Castaneda suffered a second round knockout loss to Daniel Santos, after nearly finishing Santos at multiple points in the first round. That came just after Castaneda landed a third round submission over Miles Johns after knocking out a washed up Eddie Wineland in the first round a year earlier. Looking back one fight further, Castaneda lost a decision in his July 2020 UFC debut against a really tough Nathaniel Wood. Castaneda also notably finished Marcelo Rojo and Gustavo Lopez earlier in his career. Castaneda won a decision on DWCS back in 2017, but it wasn’t enough to get him into the UFC and he had to return to the regional scene before finally getting the call up in 2020.
Now 21-6 as a pro, Castaneda has eight wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and seven decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice and has four decision defeats. Castaneda made his 2012 pro debut at 155 lb, before dropping down to 135 lb shortly thereafter. He’s also competed at 145 lb some, but most of his career has taken place at 135 lb. However, we have seen him struggle on the scale and he’s also requested two Catchweights, citing antibiotics as the reason he would be unable to make weight.
Overall, Castaneda is a well rounded fighter with a wrestling background. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 11 takedowns on 29 attempts (37.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down six times on 21 attempts (71.4% defense). He used his wrestling sporadically early in his UFC career, and after landing two of his seven attempts on DWCS, he failed to land a takedown on just two attempts over his first three UFC fights. However, he landed exactly three takedowns in each of his last three matches. He said he spent a decent amount of time training in Thailand in early 2023, where he interestingly claimed to have improved his grappling more than anything else. He also said he had been trying to juggle another full-time job outside of the UFC leading up to that camp, but he finally gave it up to focus entirely on fighting. He recently received his BJJ black belt in early 2024 and in a recent interview he said he would submit Marcos in the first two rounds. Given Castaneda’s past struggles to make weight, he’s always a guy to monitor on the scale.
Daniel Marcos
4th UFC Fight (2-0, NC)Marcos is four months removed from an unfortunate No Contest where we saw a series of minor low blows exchanged back and forth, at which point Aoriqileng took the easy way out by saying he could not continue in a fight he was losing badly. Marcos finished ahead 81-45 in significant strikes in just eight and a half minutes, while neither fighter attempted a takedown. Marcos’ previous three booked matchups all fell through, as he had two opponents drop out and then he was forced to withdraw due to visa issues. Leading up to the series of cancellations, Marcos stole a split decision against Davey Grant, despite being outstruck 70-48. Grant finished ahead in striking in every single round and somehow all three judges gave Marcos round two, despite Grant outlanding him 26-15, with no takedowns, knockdowns, or control time on either side. It was overall a very underwhelming performance from Marcos and we thought Grant clearly won. Prior to that, Marcos landed a second round knockout win in his UFC debut against Saimon Oliveira. Marcos melted Oliveira with a combination of punches and knees to the body in an impressive performance. Just before that, Marcos punched his ticket to the UFC with a 2022 decision win on DWCS, where he destroyed the lead leg of his opponent and looked close to landing a leg kick TKO at multiple points. Marcos hadn’t competed in nearly three years leading up to that win, after spending the rest of his career fighting on the Peruvian regional scene.
Now 15-0 as a pro, Marcos has eight wins by KO/TKO and seven decision victories. All eight of his finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with three ending in round one and five in round two. His last nine fights all made it out of the first round, with four going the distance, four ending in second round knockout wins, and one ending in a second round NC.
Overall, Marcos is a dangerous counter striker who throws heavy kicks and does a good job of mixing in knees with his striking combinations. He hasn’t shown much in the way of grappling and between his DWCS match and his three UFC fights he only attempted two takedowns, landing one of them. However, he was impressively able to defend 17 of the 19 takedown attempts against him (89.5% defense). Marcos’ performances have been somewhat inconsistent, as he looked good in his UFC debut, but was entirely unimpressive in his next fight, and then looked great in his last match. A lot of that can be attributed to who he was fighting and Davey Grant is far superior to the two opponents Marcos looked good against. He’ll face another tough test here in Castaneda.
Fight Prediction:
Marcos will have a 1” height advantage, but Castaneda will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is a good matchup and a good test for Marcos. Castaneda is a well rounded fighter who will look to test Marcos both on the feet and the mat. While Marcos’ takedown defense has held up well so far, it hasn’t been tested by any legitimate wrestlers. Not that Castaneda has elite wrestling, but it’s probably the best Marcos has gone up against to this point. If the fight remains standing, it should play out as an uptempo striking battle, as Castaneda averages 4.79 SSL/min and 4.99 SSA/min, while Marcos averages 5.75 SSL/min and 4.00 SSA/min. Marcos is fully capable of winning a pure striking battle, but we like Castaneda’s chances of finding some wrestling success. That could open up the potential for him to lock up a submission, but we agree with the odds that the fight is more likely to go the distance. Castaneda by decision will be the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “John Castaneda ML” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Castaneda has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, although failed to top that number in any of his last three victories, all of which made it to the third round. While his first two UFC wins each ended early, his last two both went the distance, where he showed a solid floor and scored 85 and 95 points respectively. The only time he’s ever shown a true ceiling was in a 2021 first round knockout win over a completely washed up Eddie Wineland that was good for 117 points. However, his combination of striking and wrestling is great for DFS and now he’s facing a one-dimensional striker in Marcos. That opens up the potential for Castaneda to find a submission on the mat and he was recently awarded his BJJ black belt, although Marcos does have a solid 89% takedown defense. If Castaneda can’t get the fight to the ground, it will become tougher for him to really score well without a finish and we’d be somewhat surprised to see him knock Marcos out. However, at Castaneda’s reasonable price tag he may not need to put up a massive score to sneak into winning lineups. The odds imply Castaneda has a 45% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Marcos is a pure striker who relies on landing knockouts to score well. He put up 104 DraftKings in a second round knockout win in his debut, but only totalled 55 points in a split decision in his next win. He was on his way to putting up a huge striking total and possibly finding a finish in his last fight, but after he landed a pair of low blows in the second round Aoriqileng decided to take the opportunity to get out with a No Contest. That was a dream matchup for him to score well and regardless of the outcome he at least showed the ability to perform well in favorable spots. He gets a tougher matchup here, however, Castaneda does average 4.99 SSA/min and has also been knocked out twice in his career. That leaves Marcos with a high scoring ceiling, but his floor is more uncertain as Castaneda will be looking to take him down and hunt for submissions on the mat. Marcos does have a solid 89% takedown defense, but it hasn’t been tested by any decent wrestlers. That leaves Marcos with a wider range of scoring outcomes, but he’ll either need to land an insane amount of striking volume or a knockout to score well, as he adds next to nothing in terms of wrestling. The odds imply Marcos has a 55% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Andrea Lee
13th UFC Fight (5-7)Coming in sideways, Lee has lost four straight fights and failed to even win a round in either of her last two matches. The most recent of those defeats came against Miranda Maverick, who was able to take Lee down three times and also outland her 66-36 in significant strikes. Lee did find some success in the first round, as she landed two takedowns of her own, but didn’t do much the rest of the fight outside of going for a hail mary submission in the final seconds of the match. Prior to that, Lee got dominated on the feet for three rounds by Natalia Silva, who had a massive grappling advantage but never even attempted a takedown and instead just outlanded Lee 70-43 in striking, while really beating her up on the feet. That came after Lee lost a controversial split-decision to Mayceee Barber, where Lee landed all five of her takedown attempts with over five minutes of control time, although didn’t do a ton with them. Barber finished slightly ahead in striking, while landing two takedowns of her own, and two of the three judges thought that was enough. Ten months prior to that, Lee lost a decision to Viviane Araujo. Lee started strong in that fight by landing an early knockdown, but then got smothered on the mat for the rest of that fight. The last time Lee came out victorious was in 2021 when Cynthia Calvillo straight up quit after the second round, telling her corner she didn’t want to fight anymore. Lee’s only other win in her last nine outings came just before that, when she locked up a second round submission against Antonina Shevchenko, who has consistently struggled on the mat. Lee lost three more decisions leading up to those two early wins and has amazingly lost the last seven decisions she’s been to, with three of those being split. Ten of her 12 UFC fights went the distance, and she did win decisions in each of her first three UFC appearances.
Now 13-9 as a pro, Lee has three wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. The only time she's been finished was in a 2016 R3 rear-naked choke in her 6th pro fight, prior to joining the UFC. Her other eight losses all went the distance. Only one of her last 21 fights ended in the first round, and her last 15 all made it to round two, with 12 of those seeing the third round, and 11 going the distance.
Overall, Lee is a karate black belt who averages 4.69 SSL/min and has shown the ability to put up big striking totals in the past. However, she only topped 47 significant strikes landed in one of her last six fights, which was when she landed 84 against Cynthia Calvillo in 2021. While she also holds brown belts in both judo and BJJ, she has struggled on the mat. In her 12 UFC fights, she landed 21 of her 36 takedown attempts (58.3% accuracy), while her opponents took her down 25 times on 56 attempts (55.4% defense). All 10 of the opponents who tried to take her down were successful, with 8 of those 10 landing multiple takedowns against her. Defensive wrestling continues to be one of her weaknesses and she’s lost the last six fights where she’s been taken down more than once. Ironically, the last time Lee won a fight where she was taken down more than once was in 2019 against Montana De La Rosa, who took Lee down five times on 12 attempts but still lost every round.
Montana De La Rosa
12th UFC Fight (5-5-1)Also struggling to find a win, De La Rosa has lost three straight and is coming off a decision loss to JJ Aldrich. Despite De La Rosa finishing ahead 67-65 in significant strikes and 70-66 in total strikes, all three judges scored the fight 30-27 for Aldrich, who was stepping in on relatively short notice. De La Rosa curiously only shot for one takedown, which she failed to complete. Prior to that, De La Rosa was submitted in the second round by Tatiana Suarez, after losing a 30-27 decision to Maycee Barber. De La Rosa only has one win in her last six outings, which was a 2021 R2 ground and pound TKO against Ariane Lipski. That came after De La Rosa fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a draw, following a decision loss to Viviane Araujo. De La Rosa is 0-3-1 in her last four decisions and failed to win a round in any of those three losses.
Now 12-9-1 as a pro, De La Rosa has one win by TKO (R2 2021), eight submissions, and three decision victories. Seven of her nine finishes occurred in the later rounds, with four of those ending in round two and three in round three. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has six decision defeats. Her lone KO/TKO loss came in the third round of a 2017 LFA fight against Cynthia Calvillo, while she got submitted just before that in the first round of a 2016 match against Mackenzie Dern. Both of those fights notably took place at 115 lb, before De La Rosa moved back up to 125 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017, and has stayed since. Her other submission loss came in the second round against Tatiana Suarez.
Overall, De La Rosa started out as a pure grappler/wrestler but has been steadily improving her striking over the years. However, she doesn’t land a ton of striking volume and averages just 2.70 SSL/min and 3.21 SSA/min. She’s only landed more than 56 significant strikes once in 11 Octagon appearances, which was when she landed 85 against Viviane Araujo in 2020. In her 11 UFC fights, she landed 15 takedowns on 48 attempts (31.3% accuracy), while her opponents took her down 6 times on 17 attempts (64.7% defense). She hasn’t submitted anybody since her third UFC match back in 2019 and all of her UFC submission wins came against low level opponents.
Fight Prediction:
De La Rosa will have a 1” height advantage, but Lee will have a 1” reach advantage. De La Rosa is six years younger than the 35-year-old Lee.
This will be a rematch of a 2019 fight that Lee won in a 30-27 decision. De La Rosa was able to take Lee down five times in that fight, but Lee outlanded her 73-14 in significant strikes and was the one doing all the damage. However, De La Rosa was only 24 years old at the time and has definitely made improvements to her striking since then. And while Lee came into their first fight as a 30-year-old on a six fight losing streak, she’s not 35 years old and has lost four straight. So the context surrounding the two fights has certainly changed. With that said, we still give Lee the striking advantage, while De La Rosa is the better wrestler. However, De La Rosa has been using her wrestling less lately and hasn’t been fighting very smart. So we can’t trust her to win this fight on the ground, but it is possible. It’s also impossible to trust Lee to get her hand raised by the judges, as she lost the last seven decisions she’s been to. That leaves this as a more volatile matchup, but it would be very surprising if it ended early. It’s impossible to trust either one of these two, but we think the visuals will favor Lee, as De La Rosa has consistent issues with her nose being busted up and bloodied, forcing her to breath out of her mouth and look more tired than she is. So as gross as it sounds, we’ll say Lee finally wins a decision for the first time since these two originally fought back in 2019.
Our favorite bet here is “Andrea Lee DEC” at +135.
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DFS Implications:
Lee landed late/post second round finishes in each of her last two wins, so naturally she scored well in both of those with DraftKings totals of 104 and 116. However, she’s now lost four straight decisions and is just 2-7 in her last nine fights, and has amazingly lost the last seven decisions she’s been to. She did win the first three decisions she went to in the UFC, but only averaged 79 DraftKings points in those wins and would likely need to implement a decent amount of wrestling to really score well without a finish here. That could be tougher for her as she faces a wrestler in De La Rosa. This will be the second time these two have fought and Lee only scored 70 DraftKings points in a 2019 decision win the first time they squared off. That seemingly leaves Lee reliant on landing a finish if she wants to return value in DFS. The odds imply Lee has a 57% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
De La Rosa has historically relied on her wrestling to win fights, but has been wrestling less lately as she has made some improvements to her striking. However, that has not been a winning formula for her and she’s lost three straight fights, while going just 1-4-1 in her last six. Four of her five UFC wins ended early, with three straight submission wins in her first three fights with the organization. However, she only has one finish in her last eight outings and scored just 81 DraftKings points in her lone UFC decision victory. Her wrestling leaves her with a higher scoring floor on DraftKings than FanDuel and it’s possible she could still serve as value play on DraftKings in a decision win, but she’ll need a finish to really score well. She was able to take Lee down five times in their first fight, but still only scored 43 DraftKings points in the loss, which only would have been good for 73 points had the decision gone her way. The odds imply De La Rosa has a 43% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Brad Katona
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Katona is coming off a close decision loss to Garrett Armfield, where Katona was able to land four of his nine takedown attempts and finished with four and a half minutes of control time, but Armfield finished ahead 105-64 in significant strikes and 130-76 in total strikes. Just before that loss, Katona became the first two-time winner of The Ultimate Fighter in a surprisingly high-volume decision win over Cody Gibson. A UFC retread, Katona came into that matchup averaging just 3.33 SSL/min and 2.98 SSA/min, but then landed 160 significant strikes against Gibson (10.67 SSL/min), while absorbing 164 (10.93 SSA/min). Neither fighter landed a takedown, Katona on two attempts and Gibson on one. Katona’s SBG Ireland corner told him he won the first round (he did not), but he came back to win each of the later two rounds on all three scorecards. Katona landed more significant strikes in that decision win than his previous three UFC decisions combined. He also won two more decisions on TUF to secure his spot in the finals, in addition to winning three straight decisions before going on the show. And in his first stint with the UFC in 2018 and 2019, all four of his fights also went the distance (2-2). His only official finish since 2017 was a 2021 R3 guillotine choke in his first fight after being cut by the UFC in 2019. However, he did also submit Bryce Mitchell in the third round of a 2018 TUF fight in his first trip on the show, although that goes down as an exhibition match and doesn’t show up on his official pro record. The last time one of his fights didn’t make it to the third round was in a 2015 first round submission win in his second pro outing. All three of Katona’s pro losses were against opponents with wrestling backgrounds in Garrett Armfield, Hunter Azure, and Merab Dvalishvili. While Katona has gone 9-3 with the judges in his career (not counting his exhibition matches on TUF), we’ve also seen him involved in numerous close decisions and he easily could have lost in the semi-finals of TUF to Timur Valiev.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Katona has one knockout win, three submissions, and nine decision victories. His lone knockout came in the first round of his 2014 pro debut and two of his three submission wins occurred in his first five pro fights. He only has one official finish since 2017, although did submit Bryce Mitchell in a 2018 fight that went down as an exhibition match on TUF. Katona has fought anywhere from 135 lb to 155 lb in the past, but most of his career has been spent at 135 lb. He did compete at 145 lb in his first time on TUF, but dropped down to 135 lb in his second UFC fight in 2018, and that’s where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Katona is a cringey decision grinder with a background in karate, who will also mix in wrestling. Historically, he’s excelled at slowing fights down and controlling opponents for periods of time, however we saw him take part in an action backed striking battle in his second most recent fight, so maybe he’s evolving (or maybe that was a one-time opponent specific anomaly). He holds black belts in both karate and BJJ, but isn’t much of a finishing threat, outside of occasionally locking up a late submission. He’s decently well rounded, but doesn’t really stand out anywhere. While he was born in Canada, he trains at SBG Ireland with Conor McGregor, which created a lot of friction on TUF after he was selected to be on Chandler’s team. He later switched teams to reunite with his SBG coaches after McGregor’s first six fighters all lost. That just created even more bad blood between Katona and the members of Team Chandler, especially with his roommate on the show…Cody Gibson. That may have been a driving factor in why we saw a more eventful fight between those two in the finals and Katona landed less than half as many strikes in his next fight. In his six UFC fights, Katona landed 9 of his 33 takedown attempts (27.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 9 of their 19 attempts (52.6% defense). Katona will now face a major step down in competition here.
Jesse Butler
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Butler is a year removed from a violent and immediate knockout loss in his short notice UFC debut against Jim Miller. The fight lasted just 23 seconds and is Miller’s only first round knockout win in his last 21 fights. In fairness to Butler he was stepping in on a day’s notice and up a weight class. Following the loss, Butler dropped out of two booked fights, which resulted in the year long layoff. Before he joined the UFC, Butler had won five straight fights against a series of low-level opponents. Three of his last four wins ended early, but he did win a grappling-heavy three-round decision just before joining the UFC.
Now 12-5 as a pro, Butler has one KO win (R1 2022), eight submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice in the first round and has three decision losses. He fought at 155 lb and 170 lb in his first three pro fights, before dropping down to 145 lb in 2017, where he stayed until his UFC debut at 155 lb. Now he’ll be dropping all the way down to 135 lb for the first time.
Overall, Butler is just a BJJ purple belt, but he’s primarily a grappler and has spent some time training with Kron Gracie and Matt Schnell. He also spent some time training at Fortis MMA since his debut. His takedown defense has been nearly non-existent and he’s appeared content relying on his jiu-jitsu to win grappling exchanges. He has shown some striking ability and landed his first knockout in his second most recent win, but we’re not counting on him winning many striking battles at the UFC level and he’s never landed much in the way of striking volume. His chin also looked terrible in his last fight and we have serious concerns surrounding his durability. He’s given us no indication that he can be competitive at the UFC level and now he’s not only battling his opponent, but also the cut down to 135 lb for the first time. We’ll obviously want to monitor him closely on the scale.
Fight Prediction:
Butler will have a 4” height advantage and 9” reach advantage.
Butler was immediately knocked out in the first round of his UFC debut, so he already had durability concerns. Now he’s cutting all the way down to 135 lb, after taking that fight at 155 lb, which just elevates those concerns. However, he’s also facing a decision grinder who only has one career knockout win, making this sort of an interesting matchup. Is Butler so fragile that even Katona will be able to finish him, or is Katona so pathetic that he won’t even be able to finish Butler. It’s an interesting dynamic and only time will tell. Katona will also look for occasional submissions, so there are multiple ways for him to finish Butler her. While Katona has been far from impressive, there are certain fighters that you always want to bet against and Jesse Butler is high up on that list. So we’ll go with the concept that every UFC level fighter is more dangerous than you realize when going up against an opponent who has no business being part of the organization. This will likely be the only time that we ever predict Katona to finish an opponent and we’ll say he gets Butler out of there early, with a good shot he lands just his second career knockout and his first since his 2014 pro debut.
Our favorite bet here is “Brad Katona ITD” at +210.
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DFS Implications:
Katona is a decision grinder who’s gone the distance in 10 of his last 11 fights (7-3)—not even counting his two decision wins in his recent appearance on TUF. All six of his previous UFC fights ended with the judges (3-3), with Katona averaging 84 DraftKings points in his three wins. He scored a career best 97 points in his high-volume decision win over Cody Gibson and 93 points in his 2018 UFC debut, but only 63 points in his other victory. We’ve yet to see a real ceiling performance from him and even his floor hasn’t been that impressive. And while Katona is a BJJ black belt, he only has one finish since 2017, which was a 2021 R3 guillotine. However, he’s also never fought Jesse Butler. We saw Butler get immediately murdered in his UFC debut last year, and while it’s easy to make excuses and say he took that fight on a day’s notice and up a weight class, he’s still given us no indication that he can be competitive in a UFC fight. And now he’s dropping down TWO weight classes, instead of simply moving back to his normal weight class of 145 lb. That just increases the chances for him to get knocked out and Katona will never have a better opportunity to land a finish than this. The oddsmakers are still expecting this to go the distance and when you combine that with Katona’s expensive salary and past scoring struggles, no one will want to play him. That greatly adds to his tournament appeal and rarely do we see the biggest favorite on the slate end up low owned. In addition to Butler’s highly suspect durability, he’s also shown no ability to defend takedowns and Katona has the potential to completely fill up the stat sheet here. The odds imply Katona has an 83% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Butler scored zero points in his UFC debut and has now been on the shelf for a year after pulling out of two fights. He made his debut up a weight class at 155 lb, so we always expected him to return to 145 lb. However, he’s now decided to drop all the way down to 135 lb for the first time in his career, which is very surprising and concerning for his already questionable durability and cardio. While he does have one knockout win on his record, he’s essentially a one-dimensional grappler with terrible takedown defense and will now be facing a BJJ black belt in Katona who has decent wrestling and has never been finished. It’s hard to see many paths to victory for Butler and he appears reliant on landing a hail mary finish to pull off a stunning upset. It would be completely shocking to see that happen and we’re expecting another dud from Butler here. The odds imply Butler has a 17% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Carlos Prates
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Prates is fresh off a second round knockout win in his UFC debut against a fragile Trevin Giles. However, Giles actually finished ahead 68-37 in significant strikes and won the first round on all three scorecards, before Prates caught him with a perfect left hand late in round two that ended the fight in walk off fashion. Giles failed to land either of his two takedown attempts in the fight, while Prates never looked to wrestle. That came just after Prates landed another second round finish, that time in a TKO over Mitch Ramirez on DWCS. Prates has won eight straight fights, with the last seven of those ending in knockouts, all in the first two rounds. His last three knockout wins before going on DWCS all ended in the first round. He’s competed in the LFA and in One Championship, in addition to various Brazilian promotions. The last time he saw the third round was in a 2019 decision win and he only required the judges in 3 of his 24 pro fights.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Prates has 13 KO/TKO wins, three submissions, and two decision victories. All three of his submission wins were early in his career from 2014 to 2016 and his last 10 finishes all ended by knockout. He has six first round knockouts, six more in round two, and one in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice himself and submitted three times, in addition to one decision loss. One of those knockouts came in the first round of his third pro fight back in 2012 when he was just 18 years old and only two months after he turned pro. The other was in the first round of a 2017 match. All three of his submission losses also occurred early in his career, all in the first round of his first nine pro fights from 2013 to 2014. No one has finished him since 2017 and he’s won 11 of his last 12 fights. Prates has competed anywhere from 145 lb to 185 lb in the past, but the majority of his career has been spent at 170 lb.
Overall, Prates is a patient but dangerous Muay Thai striker with baseball bats for legs. He’s also a BJJ black belt but he’s typically looking to keep fights standing. Between his recent UFC debut and his DWCS match, he never attempted a takedown, while his opponents got him down once on three attempts (66.7% defense). He does a good job of attacking his opponents with heavy body kicks before switching it up and going upstairs once they start lowering their guard. He’s tall and really long and uses his height and reach well, making it tough to close the distance on him. While Prates turned pro all the way back in 2012 and has 24 pro fights under his belt, in addition to tons of Muay Thai and K-1 experience, he’s still only 30 years old and just now entering his prime.
Charles Radtke
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Radtke is coming off a first round knockout win over a terrible Gilbert Urbina, who Radtke knocked down twice before the fight was stopped in the waning second of the round. While that was an impressive performance, it came after he won a lackluster decision in his UFC debut against a one-dimensional striker in Blood Diamond. Radtke came in with a smart approach as he tried to outgrapple Diamond, however he struggled immensely to complete his takedowns. He spent most of the fight pushing Diamond up against the fence, completing just one of his six takedown attempts, but finishing with nearly 10 minutes of control time. The most frustrating part about that was that Radtke was winning the striking exchanges, but would immediately look to engage in the clinch every time he had Diamond hurt. Had Radtke kept that fight in space, he would have had a good shot at finishing things. Just before joining the UFC, he won the CFFC Welterweight belt in a first round submission. That was just the second submission victory of his career and his first since his 2012 pro debut. Following that 2012 win he then had two fights canceled in 2013 before taking half a decade off before he returned in 2017. He went just 2-3 in his next five fights, including a decision loss to Austin Hubbard, before moving up from 155 lb to 170 lb in 2021. Since making the move up, he’s gone 6-0 with four finishes.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Radtke has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2021 R2 KO via body shot in his final fight at 155 lb before he moved up to 170 lb. His other two losses both went the distance.
Overall, Radtke is a powerful, but low-volume striker who has okay grappling skills but terrible offensive wrestling. He landed just one of his six takedown attempts in his UFC debut, after failing to even attempt a takedown in any of his previous four fights since he made the move up to 170 lb. However, we did see him look to grapple a little more when he was still fighting down at 155 lb earlier in his career. While he rarely lands any takedowns, when fights have ended up on the mat, he’s shown decent submission skills, and he’s actually a BJJ black belt and the jiu jitsu coach at Team Evolution Naples. That may be why he appears so comfortable hanging out in the clinch, but he never seems to disengage when he should. He’s shown questionable decision making and doesn’t seem like the brightest guy, but he is decently well rounded and dangerous both on the feet and the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Prates will have a 4” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while also being three years younger than the 33-year-old Radtke.
Anyone that can wrestle even a little will likely be looking to take Prates down and we expect that to be a big part of Radtke’s game plan. However, we saw him struggle to complete takedowns in his UFC debut against a one-dimensional striker in Blood Diamond so it’s hard to have much confidence in his effectiveness here. While Prates has no interest in going to the mat, he is a BJJ black belt and has shown a pretty decent takedown defense to this point. However, we could see periods of time with Radtke holding Prates up against the cage, trying to drag him to the mat, like what happened in Radtke’s UFC debut. That has the potential to really slow down the pace and potentially ruin this fight. However, if Radtke can control Prates along the fence, that also creates a path for him to win an uneventful decision. With that said, the larger cage should help Prates to stay in space and keep his back off the fence, increasing the chances that he knocks Radtke out, which is the most likely outcome according to the odds. Both guys are capable of finishing the other either on the mat or the feet, which makes it a trickier fight to predict. However, we expect Radtke to slow things down with his clinch work, which will limit the opportunities for a finish. So we’ll say it ends in a close decision that comes down to how much value the judges put into cage control time. While a decision could be a near coinflip, we see more finishing upside for Prates, so we’ll still pick him to win the fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Prates/Radtke FGTD” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Prates is a patient striker who very rarely looks to wrestle, which is far from ideal for DFS, but he’s also really dangerous and does a good job of making his shots count. He’s got really long legs that he uses to attack his opponents at all levels, and also has decent hands and is a BJJ black belt. He’s knocked out seven straight opponents in the first two rounds and has only required the judges in 3 of his 24 pro fights. That’s encouraging for Prates’ chances of finding a finish here, however, at his high salary there are still ways he lands a finish and gets priced out of the winning lineup. Just look at his last two wins, which both ended in second round knockouts but only returned DraftKings scores of 95 and 93 (DWCS) points respectively. His style is better suited to the FanDuel scoring system and we prefer playing him over there than on DraftKings, where he appears reliant on a first round knockout to return value. The odds imply Prates has a 66% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Radtke is coming off a slate-breaking 123 point performance in a fight he entered as a +165 underdog. We told you that line was terrible and Radtke was a great play going into the fight and he did not disappoint, as he landed a pair of knockdowns in a late first round finish. However, that was against an absolutely terrible opponent and he’ll face a major step up in competition here. We expect to see Radtke try and wrestle more in this spot, the same approach he had in his UFC debut. However, he really struggled to complete takedowns in that fight, only landing one of his six attempts against an opponent with horrendous defensive wrestling, which is not very encouraging for his chances here. Radtke scored 72 DraftKings points and 47 points on FanDuel in that lackluster decision win and it’s possible we see something similar here. At his cheap price tag, that wouldn’t completely eliminate his chances of being useful on DraftKings, but it would require most of the other underdogs on the slate to fail. And it wouldn’t score close to enough on FanDuel, leaving him more reliant on a finish over there. The odds imply Radtke has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Ludovit Klein
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)Klein is fresh off a first round demolition of a terrible A.J. Cunningham, who was making his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice. Klein completely filled up the stat sheet before the fight was mercifully stopped in the final 30 seconds of the opening round. Klein landed 60 significant strikes and a knockdown, while also completing two takedowns. That ties the most significant strikes he’s ever landed in a UFC fight, despite his six previous fights all making it to the third round, with five of those going the distance. Just before finishing Cunningham as a massive favorite, Klein pulled off an upset decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes, which was Klein’s fourth straight fight to go the distance (3-0-1) after he moved up from 145 lb to 155 lb in 2022. Klein came in as a +190 underdog but took Bahamondes down three times and controlled him for six minutes, while also finishing ahead 56-43 in significant strikes. Prior to that, Klein was a -210 favorite but squeaked out a majority draw against Jai Herbert after Herbert was deducted a point in the third round for repeated, but debated low blows. That came just after Klein pulled off the upset as a +310 underdog in a decision win over Mason Jones. Klein’s first UFC fight at 155 lb came on short notice against Devonte Smith and once again Klein pulled off the upset as a +125 underdog. Looking back to the start of his UFC career, Klein won his 2020 debut in dramatic fashion with a first round head kick KO against a terrible Shane Young, but then lost a questionable decision to Michael Trizano in his next match. Klein was then shockingly submitted by Nate Landwehr, who had never submitted anybody in his career up to that point. Klein gassed out in that fight, and the weight cut down to 145 lb may have played a factor, as he then moved up to 155 lb. Klein is just 2-2-1 as a favorite in the UFC, but 3-0 as an underdog.
Now 21-4-1 as a pro, Klein has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight more by submission, and four decision victories. His last seven finishes all ended in knockouts, while all of his submission wins occurred earlier in his career, including six in his first six pro fights. Ten of his 17 finishes occurred in the first round and he generally is the most dangerous early on in fights. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2017), submitted twice (R1 2017 & R3 2021), and has one decision defeat. The vast majority of Klein’s career was spent down at 145 lb, although he missed weight by 4 lb for his 2020 short notice UFC debut, and later moved up to 155 lb in 2022.
Overall, Klein is a patient striker with a deadly head kick and he’ll also mix in wrestling. However, despite having eight submission wins on his record, he hasn’t looked very dangerous on the mat and has zero submission attempts in the UFC. In his eight UFC fights, he landed 11 of his 23 takedown attempts (47.8% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 2 of their 12 attempts (83.3% defense). He’s mostly been facing one-dimensional strikers in the UFC, but he was able to stuff all three of Mason Jones’ takedown attempts. While Klein failed to land a takedown against four of his first five UFC opponents, we’ve seen him land multiple takedowns in each of his last three fights, so he is working in more wrestling lately. His cardio has been somewhat dubious, although it has looked better since he moved up to 155 lb. He also doesn’t handle adversity particularly well and likes to be the one dictating the action. He’s looking for a clean fight and is less effective when he’s the one being pressured. While he does have solid power with his striking, he generally doesn’t land much volume (outside of his last fight), averaging just 3.96 SSL/min and 3.74 SSA/min. His only two UFC finishes were both against very low-level opponents and he’ll face a step up in competition here.
Thiago Moises
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Moises is also coming off a TKO win over short notice debuting replacement. He landed a third round leg kick TKO against a low-level opponent in Mitch Ramirez. We didn’t see a ton of striking volume in the fight, with Moises finishing ahead just 25-16 in significant strikes. However, he was able to land both of his takedown attempts and finished with six and a half minutes of control time. That came after Moises suffered a late second round TKO loss to Benoit Saint Denis, following a pair of submission wins over Melquizael Costa and Christos Giagos. Costa was notably making his short notice debut up a weight class and Giagos gets submitted by everybody. Moises’ last six fights all ended early (3-3), after five of his first six UFC fights went the distance (3-2). Saint Denis was able to overwhelm Moises with pressure, which is an area where Moises has struggled in his career. Saint Denis took Moises down five times and controlled him for over half the fight, while also outlanding him 101-24 in significant strikes in a fight that lasted just under 10 minutes and took place in front of Saint Denis’ home French crowd. Before he submitted Costa and Giagos, Moises was finished in a first round TKO against a really dangerous Joel Alvarez, which followed a four round submission loss to Islam Makhachev. Prior to those losses, Moises won three straight fights with a pair of decisions over Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green, after submitting Michael Johnson in the second round. Moises’ other two UFC losses came in decisions against two more really tough opponents in Damir Ismagulov and Beneil Dariush and he’s had a really tough strength of schedule.
Now 18-7 as a pro, Moises has four wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and six decision victories. Three of his four knockout wins came before he joined the UFC, with two ending in round one and one in round five. Five of his last six submission wins ended in round two, while he also has two first round submission victories and another in round three. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has four decision losses. After his first seven UFC fights all saw the second round, with six making it to round three and five going the distance, four of Moises’ last five fights ended in the first two rounds, with two of those being stopped in round one. However, 20 of his last 23 fights made it out of round one. Moises has gone 5-1 as a favorite in the UFC, but just 2-4 as an underdog.
Overall, Moises is a dangerous BJJ black belt and an underrated striker, who’s shown improvements on the feet since joining the UFC. Despite his grappling background, he’s been content with keeping fights standing at times, which was most evident against Alexander Hernandez, who Moises only tried to take down on one unsuccessful attempt. However, we did see Moises look to grapple more in his last few fights. Between his 12 UFC fights and his DWCS Brazil appearance, Moises landed 15 of his 34 takedown attempts (44.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 16 of their 37 attempts (56.8% defense). Moises trains at American Top Team with a ton of other high-level UFC fighters and one of his main training partners has been Grant Dawson, so he gets plenty of good wrestling work in. However, Moises did move back to Brazil recently, so he’s getting less time in at American Top Team, but still finishing his camps there. He’s faced a ton of really high-level opponents, and has only struggled when facing top-level guys. Every time he gets a step down in competition he wins, but now he’ll face a tougher test in Klein.
Fight Prediction:
Moises will have a 2” height advantage, but Klein will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is an interesting matchup, as Klein really hasn’t faced many grapplers in the UFC. That makes it tougher to know how he’ll fare against a dangerous black belt like Moises. However, Klein seems to have decent grappling himself and owns an 83% takedown defense, which will come in handy here. Klein is a dangerous striker and we expect Moises to try and test him on the mat, so this outcome may be decided by how Klein’s takedown and submission defenses hold up. The other factor will be his cardio, but that has looked improved recently. It’s easy to point to the loss against Landwehr and think that Klein will gas out and/or get submitted here as well—which are both possible—but he has rebounded nicely since that defeat, going 4-0-1 since he moved up to 155 lb. The submission was arguably the result of him gassing out, which may have resulted from the tough weight cut. So if his cardio holds up here, maybe his submissions defense will as well. He’s shown the ability to go three full rounds in four of his fights since then and didn’t lose any of those fights. However, he also hasn’t faced anyone with the submission skills that Moises possesses. That leaves us with a decent amount of uncertainty, but we see this fight ending in one of three ways—a Klein early knockout, a Moises late submission, or a close decision. The larger Octagon lowers the chances of a finish and we’ll give Klein the benefit of the doubt and say his takedown defense mostly holds up and he wins a low-volume decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Thiago Moises R2/3 SUB” at +750.
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DFS Implications:
Klein is coming off a slate-breaking performance where he put up 135 DraftKings points in a perfectly timed late first round knockout win in a once in a lifetime dream matchup. However, he failed to top 86 DraftKings points in any of his previous six UFC fights, after scoring 104 points in a first round knockout win in his 2020 UFC debut. While he was able to show a decent floor in his last decision win, scoring 86 points, that required him landing three takedowns with six minutes of control time. It would be shocking to see him willing go to the mat with Moises, and he doesn’t land enough striking volume to score even remotely well in a decision if this fight remains on the feet. That leaves Klein as a pretty clear cut KO or bust option and his recent scoring explosion will likely drive his ownership up some. The odds imply Klein has a 55% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Moises has only averaged 84 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but his last three victories did all end early and his average rose to 102 points over that stretch. However, those were also all very favorable matchups and Moises has consistently shown the ability to capitalize in good matchups, but struggle in tougher ones. His last two wins were both against short notice debuting fighters, after he finished the highly submittable Christos Giagos just before that. In his last two decision wins, Moises only returned DraftKings scores of 51 and 60 points respectively and he gets a tougher test here against the 83% takedown defense of Ludovit Klein. While it’s easy to point to Klein’s 2021 submission loss to Nate Landwehr and think that if Landwehr can submit Klein then Moises should have no problem getting the job done as well. Just keep in mind, that was Klein’s final fight at 145 lb and he completely gassed out leading up to the finish, and then moved up to 155 lb after. The drastic weight cut may have played a factor in Klein gassing out and his cardio has looked better at 155 lb. With that said, Klein has almost exclusively been facing strikers in the UFC and perhaps Moises’ grappling will prove to be too much for me. So we’re not eliminating the potential for Moises to lock up a submission, but it will be far from automatic. And unless Moises can dominate this whole fight on the ground, we don’t see him scoring well without a finish. The odds imply Moises has a 45% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Miguel Baeza
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Coming off a 26 month layoff, Baeza hasn’t fought since April 2022 when he got knocked out in the first round by Andre Fialho. That was his third straight loss and he hasn’t won a fight since 2020. Just before losing to Fialho, Baeza got knocked out in the third round by a dangerous power puncher Khaos Williams. That came after Baeza lost a high-volume decision against Santiago Ponzinibbio. Leading up to those three losses, Baeza started his career with 10 straight wins, with eight of those ending early. All three of his UFC wins ended in the second round, but all of those were against struggling opponents and none of his UFC wins aged very well. Baeza cracked the UFC roster with a decision win on DWCS in 2019, and then made his UFC debut in 2019 against Hector Aldana, who came in 0-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since. In his second UFC fight, Baeza finished a 39-year-old Matt Brown in May 2020. Baeza then submitted the highly submittable Takashi Sato, who has lost four straight now.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Baeza has seven KO/TKOs, one submission, and two decision wins. His eight early wins have been evenly split across the first two rounds, but three of his first round victories notably came in his first three pro fights and four of his last five early wins occurred in round two. He’s also been knocked out twice himself and has one decision loss.
Overall, Baeza is a dangerous striker and BJJ black who throws good leg kicks. We’ve seen a decent amount of striking volume landed in his fights, as he averages 4.88 SSL/min and 5.10 SSA/min. He doesn't look to wrestle a ton and between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he only landed two of his seven takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), but did stuff all five of the attempts against him. It’s hard to know where he’s currently at after over two years away, so he’s definitely someone to monitor on the scale.
Punahele Soriano
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Soriano has been finished in the second round in two straight fights and is now just 1-4 in his last five fights. That caused him to make the surprising move down to 170 lb for the first time in his career, which kind of seems like the last card he has left to play after his recent loss to a struggling opponent in Dustin Stoltzfus. Soriano landed some decent shots early in that last fight, but then got dropped by Stoltzfus at the close of the first round, before getting dominated on the mat in round two and submitted for the first time in his career. Prior to that, Soriano got knocked out for the first time in his career by a dangerous striker in Roman Kopylov, who did a great job of crippling Soriano with body shots. That came after Soriano landed a second round knockout of his own against Dalcha Lungiambula, who has been finished in three straight fights and is just 1-5 in his last six outings. Leading up to that win, Soriano lost a pair of decisions to Nick Maximov and Brendan Allen, after landing first round knockouts in his first two UFC fights. The loss to Allen was the first time Soriano had ever tasted defeat, after starting his career off 8-0 with seven first round finishes.
Now 9-4 as a pro, Soriano has six wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. Seven of his eight finishes occurred in round one, with the most recent ending 28 seconds into round two. Three of his five career fights to last longer than five and a half minutes ended with the judges (1-2), while he was finished in the second round in the other two.
Overall, Soriano is a violent striker and was also an All-American collegiate wrestler. However, he’s typically not looking to wrestle very much and instead relies on landing bombs on the feet. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Soriano landed just 4 of his 10 takedown attempts (40% accuracy), and three of those takedowns were on DWCS. He’s only landed one takedown in his seven UFC matches and that was in his debut. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 18 of their 27 attempts (33% defense) and the last four opponents who tried to take him down were all successful. After a fast start to his UFC career, with four knockdowns landed in his first two UFC fights, Soriano has only landed one knockdown in his last five matches. He hasn’t shown any sort of growth since joining the organization, and he remains a one-dimensional power puncher who slows down after the first round. It will be essential to monitor him closely on the scale as he drops down to 170 lb for the first time here.
Fight Prediction:
Baeza will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Both of these two will be desperate for a win, as they’ve each been finished in two straight fights. We have no idea how Soriano will look at 170 lb, but for a guy who has struggled with both durability and cardio, cutting an additional 15 pounds is a big red flag. Baeza is taller and longer and does a good job of chopping down his opponents with leg kicks. That could leave Soriano even more reliant on landing a first round knockout before his legs are compromised. Baeza has a history of wearing on opponents in round one and finishing them in round two, while Soriano has a tendency to slow down after round one and was finished in round two in each of his last two fights. So there’s a good chance we either see Soriano land a knockout in round one or Baeza find a finish in round two. However, given their recent struggles and Baeza’s time away, it’s also possible that we get a more tentative approach from one or both of these two that results in a longer fight that ends in a lackluster decision. We’re slightly leaning that direction and we’ll say Baeza wins a somewhat disappointing decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Miguel Baeza KO or DEC” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Baeza will be making his return after over two years away and following three straight losses. He was knocked out in each of his last two fights and comes in with numerous red flags. However, all three of his UFC wins ended in the second round, where he averaged 100 DraftKings points. He’s only been to one decision in six UFC fights, which ended in a high-volume loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio. Even if Baeza had gotten his hand raised there, he still only would have scored 72 points, so he’s given us no indication that he can score well without a finish. Despite being a BJJ black belt, he only landed two total takedowns in his last seven fights and is reliant on striking volume and finishes to score well. Working in his favor, Soriano is coming off two straight early losses, tends to slow down after round one, and is dropping from 185 lb to 170 lb for the first time here. That could impact his durability and/or cardio, thus increasing the chances that Baeza can get him out of there. The odds imply Baeza has a 64% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Soriano put up slate-breaking DraftKings scores of 128 and 124 in a pair of first round knockouts that each included two knockdowns in his first two UFC appearances, but has since gone just 1-4 in his last five fights. His one win over that stretch ended in a poorly timed early second round knockout that scored just 87 DraftKings points. After a strong start to his career, it seems like opponents have started to figure Soriano out, as he’s basically just a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after a round. There were always concerns with his cardio and now his durability has begun to fade, which could be made even worse by his cut down to 170 lb here. So he’s full of red flags and relies on early knockouts to score well. The field has never been shy about clicking his name and despite his recent struggles he’s been between 32% and 36% owned in each of his last four fights. While suffering two straight early losses could get some people off him, his cheap price tag could offset that. We project him to be higher owned than the chances of him landing the first round knockout that he has historically needed to score well, which doesn’t leave us excited to play him. However, there is a lot of uncertainty on Baeza’s side of things as well, considering he was also finished in each of his last two fights and now hasn’t competed in over two years. In the unlikely event that Soriano wins a decision, even at his cheap price tag we don’t see him being useful. He scored exactly 27 DraftKings points in each of his two decision losses, nowhere close to what he would need to return value even if those had gone his way. The odds imply Soriano has a 36% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Julian Marquez
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Coming off back-to-back KO/TKO defeats, Marquez is 15 months removed from a R2 TKO loss to Marc-Andre Barriault, after getting finished in the first round by Gregory Rodrigues just before that. Each of those two put on a career performance against Marquez, with Barriault landing 109 significant strikes in less than two rounds of action and Rodrigues knocking Marquez down three times in a fight that only lasted 198 seconds. The last time Marquez won a fight was over three years ago, when he locked up a second round submission against Sam Alvey, who was in the midst of a nine-fight winless streak. Marquez’s only other win since 2017 was against Maki Pitolo, who was on a four fight losing streak and finished his UFC career 1-5. The last time Marquez knocked anybody out was in 2017 on DWCS, when he finished Phil Hawes in the second round. He then made his UFC debut later that year and submitted Darren Stewart in the second round, before losing a questionable 2018 split decision to Alessio Di Chirico in 2018. To make matters worse, he suffered a potentially career ending injury when he completely tore his latissimus dorsi muscle. He didn’t return to the Octagon until 2021, when he landed a comeback third-round submission against Maki Pitolo in a fight that Pitolo was up 20-18 on all three judges’ score cards.
Now 9-4 as a pro, all nine of Marquez’s career wins have come early, with six KOs and three submissions. His last four wins all occurred in the later rounds, with three ending in R2 and one in R3. He does have four first round knockouts on his record but those all came earlier in his career and he hasn’t finished an opponent in round one since 2017, just before he went on DWCS. He lost both of the decisions he’s been to, while he also has two KO/TKO losses.
Overall, Marquez is a dangerous finisher both with his hands and his chokes, but he’s not a guy that’s going to blow you away with anything he does. He had previously been known for his durability and chin, but now that appears to be fading as he’s 34 years old and was finished in each of his last two fights. He’s not the most technical striker and has short arms for his size, forcing him to engage in the pocket. He’s never landed a takedown in the UFC on just six attempts, but loves looking for guillotines and is the president of the club-n-sub club. His defensive wrestling has been poor and between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he was taken down 14 times on 30 attempts (53.3% defense). All four of those opponents who tried to take him down were successful and the last three opponents who tried to take him down each landed four or more of their attempts. Marquez has been bouncing around gyms ever since Glory MMA shut down, and he’s spent time at both Factory X and the MMA Lab. Fight cancellations have plagued Marquez throughout his UFC career, as four of his last six scheduled fights have been canceled, so just hope he even shows up at weigh-ins.
Zach Reese
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Reese recently suffered the first loss of his brief career in his UFC debut against Cody Brundage. The fight ended in a rare slam knockout, on a card where that same type of finish happened in back-to-back fights on an unusually dense Octagon floor. Reese found himself on his back early in the fight and as he looked for submissions Brundage picked him up and slammed him to the mat. Prior to that, Reese once again found himself on his back early in a fight when he went on DWCS, but that time he was able to lock up an armbar. Prior to that, he had been beating up low-level opponents on the Texas regional scene with the Fury FC organization. After his first three pro wins ended in knockouts, two of his last three wins came by submission.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Reese has yet to see the second round as a pro. He has four first round knockout wins and two by submission, while his only loss ended in a first round knockout. Five of those fights ended in 92 seconds or less, with three of his last four wins coming in under a minute. It’s important to keep in mind that he’s been fighting a very low level of competition. His first three wins came against opponents with one combined pro win between them and his second most recent victory was against a 5-10 opponent. Reese has spent most of his career at 185 lb, but did have one fight up at 205 lb in 2022.
Overall, Reese is a physically gifted but still very green fighter who only turned pro in April 2021. He tends to stand very upright with his lead leg extended forward, just begging to be kicked. That leaves him more vulnerable to being taken down as well, and we’ve yet to see him successfully defend an attempt from an opponent. He’s been content with playing jiu jitsu off his back opposed to really trying to prevent takedowns or stand back up. He trains at the WAR Training Center and works with guys like Alex Morono and Trevin Giles. He also went out to Thailand to train at Bangtao leading up to his debut. He’s never been out of the first round as a pro, so his cardio remains a mystery, but he hasn’t looked very durable or defensively sound whatsoever. It seems like the UFC brought him on too early for his own good and he’s going to have to learn fast on the job if he wants to hang around for long. We’re interested to see what improvements he’s made since his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Reese will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being four years younger than Marquez.
This looks like a fun matchup between two fighters who couldn’t spell defense with a dictionary. Marquez has always relied on protecting his hands with his face, but all the damage he’s taken may finally be catching up with him and he’s not wearing it quite as well recently. Meanwhile, Reese is all offense and no defense, as he stands straight up in the air with his chin high. They both also have terrible defensive wrestling, but we’ve yet to see Marquez actually land a takedown in the UFC, despite the fact that all three of his UFC wins came by submission. They each have the power and the submission skills to finish the other in multiple ways, but this will likely come down to whose chin fails them first. Marquez has at least shown the ability in the past to win UFC fights, which is more than we can say about Reese. However, the current trajectory of Marquez’s career is concerning, as is his level of inactivity. There’s a decent chance we see an improved version of Reese as he steps into his second UFC fight, while Marquez has the potential to look even worse than before. If you told us we were getting 2021 Marquez we would take him here in a second, but durability is a tough attribute to regain after it’s become diminished and fighters with the style of Marquez have an inherently shorter shelf life. Ultimately, it’s impossible to have much confidence in either of these two and this is a volatile matchup that we expect to end early. Reese has never even seen the second round, increasing the chances for him to gas out if he finally makes it that far in a fight. However, if you tell us we can have the younger, fresher, taller, more athletic, and more active fighter at plus money in a fight that we’re expecting to be a brawl that ends early, we’re willing to take a shot on it.
Our favorite bet here is “Zach Reese ML” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Marquez is coming off back-to-back KO/TKO losses, which is never a good sign when you’re a brawler who has historically relied on your durability to get by in fights. He also hasn’t competed in 15 months and hasn’t won a fight in over three years. Yes, he’s facing a major step down in competition here, but Marquez comes in with numerous red flags. While all three of his UFC wins ended early, only once did he top 85 DraftKings points, which was in a 2021 second round submission against the corpse of Sam Alvey, who was in the midst of one of the longest winless streaks in UFC history (0-8-1). Marquez’s other two UFC wins also each ended in late round submissions, but only returned scores of 74 and 85 points respectively. Despite all three of his UFC victories coming by submission, Marquez has never landed a takedown with the organization, and absorbs more damage than he lands (4.86 SSL/min vs. 4.99 SSA/min). Working in his favor, Reese is incredibly green and also lacks any sort of defense, which makes this a volatile, high upside matchup for whoever wins. The odds imply Marquez has a 57% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Reese is coming off the first loss of his career in a bizarre R1 KO by slam in his recent UFC debut. That fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but he was notably a large -250 favorite there. What we know about Reese is that he’s never been past the first round and is entirely focussed on getting opponents out of there quickly, which leaves some uncertainty surrounding his cardio. He’s exclusively fought a low level of competition and remains entirely unproven. However, he’s tall, athletic, and explosive, and at least has the physical tools required to be successful. He can be a little too content with playing jiu jitsu off his back, but he does have some submission skills, in addition to his raw athleticism. Now he’s facing an opponent who has been finished in two straight fights and who also lacks any sort of defense. Marquez’s last two opponents put up slate-breaking scores against him, returning DK/FD totals of 141/165 and 120/140 respectively. Marquez has been extremely hittable (4.99 SSA/min) and easy to take down (53% takedown defense), which is encouraging for Reese’s upside here. Marquez has also never landed a takedown in the UFC, so is less likely to capitalize on Reese’s poor takedown defense. While it’s impossible to trust Reese’s scoring floor, his ceiling is massive. The odds imply Reese has a 43% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Brunno Ferreira
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Fresh off a first round knockout win over a fragile Phil Hawes, Ferreira has yet to see a second round in the UFC. Hawes almost survived the opening five minutes, but Ferreira caught him late in the round and put him down with just five seconds remaining on the clock. Prior to that, Ferreira got knocked out in just 77 seconds by Nursulton Ruziboev, who was making his UFC debut on short notice. Just before that, Ferreira made his own short notice UFC debut and landed a first round knockout against Gregory Rodrigues. Prior to joining the UFC, Ferreira had finished all nine of his opponents on the regional scene in under seven minutes. His last six fights all ended in round one and he’s only seen the second round twice in his career. One of those two fights ended 12 seconds into round two with the other being stopped 68 seconds into the second round. His last seven fights all ended by knockout, after he submitted three of his first five opponents.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Ferreira has eight wins by KO/TKO and three submissions. Six of his eight knockouts ended in round one, with the other two ending in the opening 68 seconds of round two. All three of his submission wins also ended in round one, as did his lone career loss, which ended in a knockout.
Overall, Ferreira is a stocky Brazilian powerhouse with a judo background. On the regional scene, he was often looking to get fights to the ground, where he would then go to work with heavy ground and pound while also looking for occasional submissions. However, between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he only landed one takedown on six attempts (16.7% accuracy), while his opponents took him down once on three attempts (66.7% defense). Considering his longest MMA fight ended 78 seconds into round two, it’s to know what his cardio will look like if he ever gets extended, but we suspect he’ll struggle in that department. He’s constantly switching stances, which makes it harder for his opponents to get a read on him, but his shorter height and reach may give him trouble against taller opponents who know how to control distance well.
Dustin Stoltzfus
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Coming off the biggest win of his career, Stoltzfus pulled off a big upset as a +280 underdog when he submitted Punahele Soriano in the second round, which is the only time Soriano has ever been submitted. Stoltzfus showed the ability and durability to weather the early storm from Soriano and even knocked Soriano down as the first round ended. That momentum carried into round two, where Stoltzfus was able to take Soriano down three times and eventually lock up a rear-naked choke. Stoltzfus finished the fight ahead 64-31 in significant strikes, while also landing four of his seven takedown attempts. That win came 15 months after Stoltzfus quickly lost in a 19 second first round TKO against a debuting Abusupiyan Magomedov. Stoltzfus got kicked in the face right out of the gate in that match and was then quickly finished. When asked about why he had such a long layoff after that last fight, Stoltzfus said he had COVID four times, with long lasting symptoms from it. Prior to that loss, Stoltzfus saved his job in the UFC with a decision victory over Dwight Grant after starting off 0-3 with the organization. All three of those losses came against grapplers in Kyle Daukaus, Rodolfo Vieira, and Gerald Meerschaert. Grant is notably a one-dimensional striker who was moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb for the first time in the UFC following two straight losses and hasn’t fought since suffering his third straight loss. Stoltzfus’ loss to Daukaus went the distance in Stoltzfus’ 2020 UFC debut, while his losses to Vieira and Meerschaert both ended in third round submissions.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Stoltzfus has two wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, six decisions, and one DQ win. He’s been finished in three of his five losses, with a first round knockout and two third round submissions. His other two losses both went the distance. Stoltzfus competed as high as 205 lb some early in his career, but has fought exclusively at 185 lb since 2015.
Overall, Stoltzfus is a Luta Livre black belt who comes from a grappling background and is typically looking to take fights to the mat. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 11 of his 27 takedown attempts (40.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 13 attempts (46.2% defense). All four of the opponents who tried to take him down were successful. After going 0 for 10 on takedown attempts in his first two UFC fights, Stoltzfus has since landed 10 takedowns on 16 attempts in his last four matches, and has shown improvements to his game, especially in his last fight where he had a much more impressive performance. After going up against an Xtreme Couture fighter in his last match, Stoltzfus has now actually started training there for this fight and got to spend a good amount of time working with Sean Strickland. Stoltzfus still lives in Germany and trains there as well, but it’s encouraging for his growth that he did his camp in Vegas with higher level training partners and coaches. It will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made and if he can continue the momentum from his recent win.
Fight Prediction:
Stoltzfus will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of Stoltzfus’ UFC wins were against opponents known for their early knockout ability and now he’ll face another dangerous finisher here. However, Stoltzfus will have a decent size advantage and we also expect him to have advantages in both cardio and durability. While Ferreira has looked dangerous in round one, he’ll likely slow down in a longer fight, as he’s never been past the 6:08 mark and carries a ton of muscle. That could open a lot of opportunities for Stoltzfus to find success in the back half of this match if he can simply survive the first round. We’re not entirely sold on Ferreira and he’s really short for 185 pounds at just 5’10”. Stoltzfus does a good job of throwing kicks up the middle to help control the range and the larger Octagon should also benefit him. The two concerns with him are that we have seen him get quickly knocked out once before and his defensive wrestling hasn’t been great, with just a 46% takedown defense. Ferreira has a background in judo and will look to get fights to the mat and land heavy ground and pound, which is one way he can overcome his size disadvantage in this fight. However, if he can’t get Stoltzfus out of there early then he may find himself in trouble late, which is what we’re banking on. We like Stoltzfus’ chances of surviving the early storm and taking over in round two. A late finish is possible if Ferreira completely gasses out, while a decision win is also in play. It’s probably a spot where you’ll have to hold your breath for the first round, but give us Stoltzfus to pull off his second straight upset either with a late finish or a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Dustin Stoltzfus ML” at +225.
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DFS Implications:
Ferreira has yet to see the second round in three Octagon appearances, so it should come as no surprise that he’s scored well in each of his two wins and has also been extremely popular. Both of his UFC victories came in the final minute of the first round, returning DraftKings totals of 109 and 117 points respectively. His most recent win came with just five seconds before the round ended and he’s been very fortunate with the timing of his finishes. Both of those wins also came against opponents who have been prone to getting knocked out, in Gregory Rodrigues, who has three knockout losses on his record, and Phil Hawes who has five. Ferreira has never been past the 6:08 mark in 12 pro fights, which is both encouraging for his upside, but also concerning for his cardio if he’s ever forced into a longer fight. He’s also not very tall for 185 lb at just 5’10” and struggles to find his range at times, although will look to wrestle to make up for that. While his wrestling theoretically leaves him with ways to score well outside of a first round finish, he still needs to show that he has the cardio to be successful in a longer fight and we’re somewhat skeptical that he does. And when you factor in his expensive price tag, he’ll likely need another well-timed first round knockout to return value. While it’s certainly possible that he achieves that, Stoltzfus has only been knocked out once in his career and looked much improved in his last fight. And at Ferreira’s high projected ownership, there’s a lot of leverage to be gained by being underweight on him. Maybe he’ll just land a perfectly timed knockout for every fight of his career until he wins the belt and defends it straight 25 times, but we’re willing to bet that doesn’t happen and this looks like a good spot for regression to kick in. The odds imply Ferreira has a70% chance to win, a 58% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Stoltzfus is coming off a career performance where he secured his first UFC finish in a second round submission win over a power puncher in Punahele Soriano, who had previously never been submitted. Stoltzfus was a massive +280 underdog in that matchup, but was able to survive the first round and then take over in round two as Soriano began to slow down. Stoltzfus scored a slate-breaking 132 DraftKings points in the finish as he filled up the statsheet with four takedowns and a knockdown. While we generally don’t want to be chasing big outlier scores, he looked improved in that matchup and now he’s been training out in Vegas at Xtreme Couture with Sean Strickland and numerous other UFC fighters. That’s encouraging for his continued development and if he can once again survive for five minutes against a dangerous opponent then he could be in a good position to take over down the stretch. While all we can do is speculate on Ferreira’s cardio, given that the longest fight of his career lasted just six minutes, we expect him to slow down in a longer fight and Stoltzfus will also have the size advantage. And at Stoltzfus’s cheap price tag, even an average scoring decision win could still be enough for him to return value. The odds imply Stoltzfus has a 30% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Raul Rosas Jr.
4th UFC Fight (2-1)This fight had been scheduled to take place back in February in Mexico City, but Rosas dropped out mid card.
Prior to his recent withdrawal, Rosas landed a quick 54 second first round TKO against a terrible Terrence Mitchell, where we finally saw Rosas show a willingness to stand and trade on the feet opposed to immediately looking to wrestle as he had in his past fights. Given how bad Mitchell is, it makes sense that Rosas would use that opportunity to showcase his striking, especially after gassing out on the mat in his previous fight and suffering his first career loss against Christian Rodriguez. Rosas came out of the gates hot in that defeat and nearly locked up a rear-naked choke in the first round, but didn’t pace himself at all and then gassed out midway through round two. Rodriguez was able to take over at that point and control Rosas on the mat for the remainder of the fight, as he cruised to a unanimous 29-28 decision win. Prior to that, Rosas locked up a first round submission in his UFC debut against a suspect Jay Perrin, who went 0-3 in the UFC before being released. Just before that, Rosas saw the judges for the first time in his career in a decision win on DWCS when he was just 17 years old, becoming the youngest fighter to ever win a contract on the show. He amazingly was still in high school at the time, although he dropped out after getting the contract to pursue fighting full time. Rosas showed he knows how to escape guillotine chokes in that fight, as his opponent was constantly looking to wrap up his neck on takedown attempts.
Still just 8-1 as a pro, Rosas has two wins by R1 TKO, five submissions, and one decision victory. Six of his seven finishes came in the first round, with the other ending just before the midway point of round two. His lone loss ended in a decision. He’s only been in two fights that lasted longer than a round and half, with both of those going the distance (1-1). Only three of his eight wins were against opponents who came in with more than two fights of pro experience, and we’ve yet to see him beat anyone decent.
Overall, Rosas is a relentless wrestler who’s typically looking to immediately get fights to the ground and hunt for submissions, but finally showed a willingness to stand and strike in his last fight. However, he still only averages 1.28 SSL/min and failed to land more than 20 significant strikes in any of his last four fights. He amazingly went the full 15 minutes in his second most recent match and still only landed two TOTAL strikes in the fight. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 8 of his 24 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while he got taken down by his opponents twice on two attempts. He only turned pro in November 2021 and is just 19 years old, but the UFC has been pushing him hard. His first two UFC fights were both on PPV cards, while his last was on the hyped up UFC Noche card, and he’s already been added to the UFC video game. After gassing out in his only UFC fight that saw the second round, it will be interesting to see how his cardio looks here in an uptempo matchup.
Ricky Turcios
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Nineteen months removed from a split decision win over Kevin Natividad, Turcios was fortunate to get his hand raised after being taken down seven times, knocked down once, stumbled another time, and controlled for five minutes. However, he never stopped working and the judges valued his activity over the damage and takedowns from Natividad. Turcios did finish ahead 68-41 in significant strikes and 170-61 in total strikes, while also completing three reversals, a submission attempt, and two takedowns of his own with over six minutes of control time. That made it a tricky fight to score and it could have gone either way. Turcios also won a split decision in his UFC debut, which was also the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, against a wrestler in Brady Hiestand who took Turcios down six times on 11 attempts and finished with almost eight minutes of control time. However, just like Turcios’ most recent fight, he never stopped working or pushing the pace, and put up another big striking total, as he outlanded Hiestand 201-82 in total strikes and 100-66 in significant strikes. He also landed two takedowns of his own and once again the judges disagreed on how to score the fight, but two of them had it for Turcios. In between those two split decision wins, Turcios lost a low-volume 29-28 decision to Aiemann Zahabi and even in that fight there was only one round where all three judges scored it the same way. Turcios amazingly only connected on 27 of the 235 strikes he threw in that bizarrely uneventful fight, but we put most of the blame on Zahabi there, as he’s a patient counter striker who has a knack for slowing fights down. Turcios originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2017, but after losing a decision to Boston Salmon Turcios returned to the regional scene where he went 2-1 before going on TUF in 2021.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Turcios has three wins by TKO, one submission, and eight decision victories. Three of his four career finishes have come in the later rounds, but he’s only finished one opponent since 2016, which was in a 2020 R2 armbar submission win. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2018 R1 TKO against Mana Martinez, who went 2-2 in the UFC. Turcios’ other two losses both ended in decisions. He’s been to four split decisions in his career, winning all four of those. Thirteen of his 15 pro fights made it out of the first round, with the two exceptions being a 2016 R1 TKO win and a 2018 R1 TKO loss. Other than one trip up to 145 lb in 2020, Turcios has spent his entire career at 135 lb.
Overall, Turcios weaponizes his cardio as he pushes a wild pace, with the goal of outworking his opponents. He’ll throw up lots of loose submissions, but rarely locks anything in. His striking style is similar to his grappling, where he’s constantly working, but not landing many big shots with fight-ending intentions. He fights like he’s in outer space, throwing strikes from all angles, regardless of the position he’s in, whether it’s from his back, on the feet, upside down, or whatever other spot you can put him in. While he’s a decent grappler, his wrestling is bad. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he only landed 4 of his 16 takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 13 of their 24 attempts (45.8% defense). Two of those four opponents didn’t even try to take him down, while the other two each landed six or more takedowns against him. Turcios barely even tries to defend takedowns and seems content with striking as opponents look to shoot and then relying on his grappling to escape positions on the mat. That seems like a flawed approach and he’s barely been skating by in his wins. It’s never a good look when Kevin Natividad is taking you down seven times, and he failed to land any takedowns on just one attempt in his previous two UFC fights. The UFC is now matching Turcios up with another wrestler who they’re actively trying to build up, clearly looking to capitalize on Turcios’s non-existent takedown defense.
Fight Prediction:
Rosas will have a 3” height advantage, but Turcios will have a 4” reach advantage and is 11 years older than the 19-year-old Rosas.
The UFC seems to be testing both of those two fighters’ weaknesses here. Rosas gassed out in his one loss and is now facing a super uptempo fighter who looks to weaponize his cardio in Turcios. And on the flipside, Turcios has shown no ability to defend takedowns and is now going against a relentless wrestler in Rosas. Turcios has never been submitted in his career and has way more grappling and striking experience than Rosas. He also has a major cardio advantage and if he can simply survive early on then he could be in a good position to take over in the back half of the fight if Rosas once again slows down. Now maybe Rosas has made improvements to his cardio or at least his cardio management, but he’s given us no indication of either and we can only go off of what he’s shown us. And what he’s shown is an unhealthy amount of delusion in his own talent that may limit his ability to learn and grow as a fighter. After gassing out against Christian Rodriguez he once again came out with an ultra aggressive pace in his last fight and unquestionably would have emptied his gas tank once again had he not found a finish. We expect Rosas to land takedowns with ease early on, which will provide him with opportunities to look for a submission. If he can’t become the first fighter to ever submit Turcios, then that’s where things will get interesting. If we don’t get a quick finish, round two will likely decide who wins a decision, as Turcios’ cardio advantage should put him in a really good position to win round three. We saw Rosas really slow down in the second round against Rodriguez and it won’t be at all surprising if Rosas has some early wrestling success in round two, but then once again slows down as the round progresses, making it tougher to score. Turcios’ fights are already all over the place on the scorecards and when you add the potential for his opponent to gas out you have a recipe for volatility. It’s not impossible that Turcios could finish Rosas in round three if he completely gasses, but a decision is more likely, with the potential we see another split. Turcios is 4-0 in split decisions in his career, but we liked his chances more in the original booking when the fight was set to take place at extreme elevation. Fighting in Louisville is much more favorable for Rosas and lowers the potential for him to completely gas out. So give us Rosas in a wrestling-heavy decision, although a submission win is also possible.
Our favorite bet here is “Rosas/Turcios FGTD” at -112.
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DFS Implications:
Rosas finally showed a willingness to stand and strike in his last fight, but you have to wonder if that was only because of how terrible his opponent was. We have no doubt that he’s been working on improving his striking, but it’s his wrestling that got him to the big show and that’s still where he’s been the most comfortable. However, at 19 years old he’s at an age where we expect to see drastic improvements between every fight and maybe he is finally comfortable enough on the feet to not immediately look to wrestle. With that said, this is a dream matchup for him to find wrestling success and Turcios was taken down six or more times by each of the two opponents who tried to take him down so far in the UFC. Assuming that Rosas hasn’t completely fallen in love with his striking, he still has a higher floor on DraftKings than FanDuel. Demonstrating that, his decision win on DWCS would have been good for 104 points on DraftKings, but just 55 points on FanDuel. With that said, seven of his eight career wins have come early, and both of his UFC wins ended in the first round, so he’s shown clear upside on both sites. The biggest concern with him is that he completely gassed out in the second round of his one UFC loss, and now he’s facing an opponent who likes to push a crazy pace and who has never been submitted. So there’s a good chance that Rosas won’t be able to put him away and will have his cardio tested in a longer fight. Maybe he learned from that loss and will look better late in this fight, but only time will tell and things could get dicey down the stretch. That leaves him as a somewhat volatile option in DFS, but nonetheless, this is a great matchup for him to rack up takedowns and he still has a high ceiling and a decent floor against an opponent who hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat. The odds imply Rosas has a 66% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Turcios has fought to three straight close decisions since joining the UFC, winning two of those on split scorecards. However, despite his inability to finish anyone or even win a decisive decision, he still managed to average 117 DraftKings points and 91 points on FanDuel in his two wins. He was able to achieve that through his uptempo pace and ability to throw non-stop strikes from the clinch and during grappling exchanges. Sure he gets taken down a half dozen times by anyone who tries, but he never stops landing strikes and looking for reversals and submissions on the mat. All of those clinch strikes add up, and make him an especially appealing play on DraftKings, where he returned scores of 114 and 120 in his two wins, while he “only” scored 78 and 104 points respectively on FanDuel. Just keep in mind, Turcios also hasn’t been facing the toughest competition and he still narrowly squeaked by in each of his wins. He’ll face a tougher test here than in his last fight, but we’ve also seen Rosas gas out before, and Turcios’ pace is tough to keep with even for guys without cardio concerns. However, if Rosas doesn’t gas out, it’s much tougher to see Turcios winning based on how bad his defensive wrestling has been. At Turcios’ cheap price tag, it’s hard not to like his upside, even if his floor is uncertain. The odds imply Turcios has a 34% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Dustin Jacoby
14th UFC Fight (7-5-1)Coming off a decision loss to Alonzo Menifield, Jacoby suddenly finds himself just 1-3 in his last four fights. While Jacoby finished ahead 93-68 in significant strikes, Menifield had all of the show stealing moments in the fight, hurting Jacoby at multiple points and securing both a knockdown and a takedown in the match. Menifield lost the first round but then won each of the later rounds on all three scorecards. That came just after Jacoby landed a first round TKO win against Kennedy Nzechukwu, following a pair of decision losses to Azamat Murzakanov and Khalil Rountree. In fairness to Jacoby, we thought he beat Rountree, as he outstruck him in every round and finished ahead 120-85 in significant strikes with no other stats accrued by either fighter. However, there was no question that Murzakanov won the next match and Jacoby got hurt in each of the first two rounds in that fight. Jacoby had gone 8-0-1 leading up to the pair of losses, with his fourth most recent MMA loss coming all the way back in 2015. However, he did step away from MMA following a pair of losses in 2014 and 2015 to focus on kickboxing, before returning to MMA in 2019 and working his way back into the UFC with a 2020 decision win on DWCS. Jacoby originally joined the UFC in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was cut in 2012 after an 0-2 start. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights outside of the UFC, and also competed in Glory Kickboxing for several years. Jacoby's last 13 fights all ended in either first round knockout wins (4) or decisions (5-3-1).
Now 19-8-1 as a pro, Jacoby has 12 wins by KO/TKO, one submission (R1 2011), and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2014), submitted twice (R3 2012 & R2 2015), and has five decision losses. Jacoby’s last 14 wins all ended in either R1 KOs or decisions. The only time he’s landed a finish beyond the first round in his career was a 2011 R2 TKO by doctor stoppage. His other 18 wins all ended in either decisions (6) or first round finishes (12). While he lost the last three decisions he went to, he was 6-0-1 in his previous seven. In Jacoby’s initial stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however, he moved up to 205 lb in 2014.
Overall, Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who averages a healthy 5.53 SSL/min and 4.07 SSA/min. He’s never landed more than one takedown in a UFC fight and doesn’t really add a whole lot when it comes to grappling, but will occasionally look to mix it up with a takedown attempt. Between his 13 UFC fights and his DWCS match, he landed 4 of his 16 takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 18 of their 47 attempts (61.7% defense). None of his last seven opponents got him down more than once. While we have seen Jacoby hurt in each of his last two losses, he hasn’t been finished since 2015 and has shown the ability to quickly recover.
Dominick Reyes
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Reyes is attempting to mount a comeback after 19 months away as he dealt with blood clots. He lost his last four fights and was violently knocked out in the first two rounds in the last three of those, after losing a close decision to Jon Jones back in 2020. His most recent loss ended in just 80 seconds against Ryan Spann, after both Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz knocked Reyes out in the second round. Prior to the string of defeats, Reyes started his career with 12 straight wins.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Reyes has seven wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times and has one decision loss. All nine of his early wins ended in round one, while two of his early losses ended in round two and the other in round one. Four of his last five fights ended by knockout.
Overall, Reyes relies mostly on his striking and rarely adds much in terms of wrestling. In his 10 UFC fights, he only landed two of his seven takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 36 attempts (80.6% defense). He was a former college football player and his background was not in martial arts. He averages 4.75 SSL/min and 3.77 SSA/min. After a year and a half away following a health scare and coming off numerous knockout losses, it’s honestly surprising that Reyes hasn’t hung it up yet, despite the fact that he’s still only 34 years old.
Fight Prediction:
Reyes will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while also being two years younger than Jacoby.
Anyone that has watched Reyes fight in recent years knows what the deal is. His chin has looked shot and his ability to take a punch is gone. He shouldn’t be fighting anymore, but apparently neither he nor his brother know when to call it quits. While Jacoby doesn't have devastating power, he’s a very talented striker with a history of first round knockouts and we fully expect him to get back on track with a first round knockout here.
Our favorite bet here is “Dustin Jacoby R1 KO” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Jacoby consistently either finishes opponents in the first round or fights to decisions and only one of his 12 career early wins came beyond the opening five minutes. In his four UFC first round finishes, he averaged 109 DraftKings points, but in his three decision victories he averaged just 75 points. While his last two wins both ended in first round knockouts, his other five most recent fights all went the distance (2-3). The only time he’s ever been finished in the UFC was in a 2012 R3 guillotine in his first stint with the organization when he was still fighting down at 185 lb. While he’ll occasionally mix in takedowns, he’s never landed more than one in a fight and relies on his striking and specifically knockouts to score well. Working in his favor, he’s now facing the corpse of Dominick Reyes, who hasn’t won a fight since 2019, is coming off a 19 month layoff, and has been violently knocked out in the first two rounds in each of his last three fights. Jacoby couldn’t ask for a better get-right spot and we fully expect him to knock Reyes out early. The only question is whether or not he’ll get priced out of the optimal lineup as his expensive price tag, which is very possible if we see an efficient finish beyond the 60 second mark. Only one of Jacoby’s four UFC first knockout wins scored more than 106 points and that required him landing two knockdowns. The odds imply Jacoby has a 68% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Reyes is somehow still being allowed to fight in the UFC despite coming off four straight losses and three straight violent knockouts. He now hasn’t competed in 19 months as he was dealing with blood clots and he comes into this matchup with more red flags than a Soviet parade. His chin looks completely gone and you can safely expect there to be a chalk outline on the Octagon floor following his fights. In addition to his non-existent scoring floor, Reyes has been a R1 KO or bust option throughout his career when it comes to hitting a ceiling, with all nine of his early wins ending in round one. He only scored 48 and 82 DraftKings points in his two decision wins and has given us no indication that he can score well without a finish. He’s only landed two takedowns in 10 UFC fights and hasn’t shown much in the way of wrestling and only once landed more than 63 significant strikes in a fight that lasted no more than three rounds. Jacoby has only been knocked out once in his career, and that was all the way back in 2014, making it hard to have any confidence in Reyes’ chances here. The odds imply Reyes has a 32% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Nassourdine Imavov
9th UFC Fight (5-2, NC)Imavov is coming off a five-round decision win over Roman Dolidze, where he nearly finished Dolidze in the first round, but appeared to drain his gas tank going for the finish and slowed down greatly after that. Dolidze was looking to clinch throughout the match, which also slowed things down. Imavov landed an illegal kick to the head of a downed opponent in round four, which resulted in a point deduction and caused one judge to score the fight a draw, while the other two had it for Imavov. Imavov’s previous fight ended in an unfortunate No Contest following an accidental clash of heads that caused a large cut above the eye of his opponent, Chris Curtis. Imavov was winning the fight up to that point, as he more than doubled Curtis up in significant strikes at 57-26. Imavov also became the first fighter to ever take Curtis down, landing three of his four attempts in just a round and a half, after Curtis defended all 35 of the attempts against him in his first six UFC fights. Following that No Contest, Imavov had been booked to face Ikram Aliskerov in October, but ended up pulling out of the fight two weeks prior. Before he fought Curtis, Imavov lost to Curtis’ teammate Sean Stricklan in a January 2023 five-round decision. Imavov had been set to face Kelvin Gastelum there, but Gastelum dropped out and Strickland stepped in on short notice. Due to the short notice nature, that fight took place up at 205 lb, instead of 185 lb where Imavov and Strickland both normally compete. After originally preparing to compete at 185 lb on that night, Imavov only weighed in at 194 lb following the opponent and weight class change, while Strickland tipped the scale at 204 lb. While Strickland was the one filling in on short notice, he still set the pace in that fight and outlanded Imavov 182-123 in significant strikes in what played out as basically a pure striking battle with Imavov failing to land his only takedown attempt and Strickland taking Imavov down once on his only attempt. Prior to that, Imavov won a decision over Joaquin Buckley after landing a pair of second round TKOs against Edmen Shahbazyan and Ian Heinisch, which are his only two finishes in the UFC. Imavov’s first two UFC fights both went the distance, with a win over a terrible Jordan Williams in his 2020 debut, followed by a wrestling-heavy decision loss to Phil Hawes, who took Imavov down four times and controlled him for 11 minutes. All eight of Imavov’s UFC fights made it to the second round, with five going the distance.
Now 13-4 plus a No Contest as a pro, Imavov has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a R1 guillotine choke in his 2016 pro debut. His other three losses all ended in decisions. Imavov notably fought most of his career at 170 lb before moving up to 185 lb when he joined the UFC. All nine of his early wins ended in the first two rounds, with the first seven finishes of his career coming in round one and the last two ending in round two.
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Imavov’s career. The first was when Imavov lost a decision to Sean Strickland in January 2023. While Imavov looked to tire as that fight went on, he did narrowly win the fifth round on all three scorecards after losing the first four rounds. Then he won a decision in his most recent five-round fight, but again looked to tire as the fight went on.
Overall, Imavov is a crisp counter striker who can also mix in occasional grappling. He was born in Dagestan, but moved to France when he was nine, which is where he still lives. He trains out of the MMA Factory in Paris with Ciryl Gane and has shown improvements since joining the UFC, which makes sense considering he’s still just 29 years old. He has a solid left jab and at 6’3” he has decent size for the Middleweight division, which makes it tougher to close the distance on him. One concern with him is his cardio, and he generally starts slowing down some by the third round. Another concern is that we’ve seen him get controlled along the fence at times in the past, which is how he lost to Phil Hawes. In Imavov’s eight UFC fights, he landed 7 of his 22 takedown attempts (31.8% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 26 attempts (76.9% defense). He likes to threaten guillotines when opponents try to take him down, although we haven’t seen him submit anybody since 2019.
Jared Cannonier
17th UFC Fight (10-6)Cannonier is a year removed from a record-setting performance against Marvin Vettori, where Cannonier landed the most ever significant strikes in a Middleweight fight (241), blowing past Strickland’s previous record of 186. Cannonier actually got hurt 30 seconds into the fight but quickly recovered and then nearly landed a finish of his own in round two. While Vettori was able to survive, Cannonier continued to lay it on him for the remainder of the match, finishing ahead 241-153 in significant strikes and also taking Vettori down four times on six attempts. Following that win, Cannonier was scheduled to face Roman Dolidze in December and then actually got the call to step in and face Khamzat Chimaev on short notice in October, but then tore his MCL at practice within an hour of the news. That forced him out of both of those matchups and resulted in his year-long layoff. Prior to defeating Vettori, Cannonier won a close five-round split-decision over Sean Strickland, where Cannonier finished behind 152-141 in significant strikes. Cannonier actually made his UFC debut all the way up at Heavyweight in 2015, but after starting off 1-1 he dropped down to Light Heavyweight. He then went 2-3 at Light Heavyweight before making the move down to Middleweight, where he’s since gone 7-2. His only two losses at Middleweight were a 2020 three-round decision to Robert Whittaker and a 2022 five-round decision loss to Israel Adesanya. Cannonier’s last three and five of his last six fights went the distance (3-2), with the last four of those decisions going five rounds (3-1). His only fight to end early since 2019 was a 2022 R2 knockout win over Derek Brunson, who’s now been knocked out in seven of his nine career losses.
Now 17-6 as a pro, Cannonier has 10 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and five decision victories. Both of his submission wins came very early in his career, in 2011 and 2013, when he was still fighting in Alaska. While the first five knockout wins of his career ended in round one, four of his last five KO wins occurred in the later rounds, with three in round two and one in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, and has four decision defeats. Both of his KO/TKO losses ended in the first round, although one of those was at Heavyweight and the other was at Light Heavyweight. He’s never been finished at 185 lb.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Cannonier’s UFC career. His first was in 2019 against Jack Hermansson and he won in an early second round TKO. His last four five-round fights all went the distance, with a 2021 win over Kelvin Gastelum, a 2022 loss to Israel Adesanya, a 2022 win over Sean Strickland, and then his recent win over Marvin Vettori. So while Cannonier lost his only title opportunity, he won all four of his five-round fights when there wasn’t a belt on the line.
Overall, Cannonier is a powerful striker who throws violent leg kicks and has demonstrated a really solid takedown defense since dropping down to 185 lb. In his nine fights since making the move down, he successfully defended 32 of the 41 attempts against him (78% defense). And while it’s rare to see Cannonier land any takedowns of his own, he surprisingly took Vettori down four times on six attempts in his last match. Prior to that, he had only attempted eight total takedowns in his first 15 UFC fights, completing just two of those. While Cannonier averages 4.68 SSL/min, he said after the loss to Adesanya that he realized he needs to increase his output and his actions backed up his words as he proceeded to land a career best 141 significant strikes against Strickland (5.64 SSL/min), after failing to top 90 in his previous 14 UFC fights and only averaging 3.73 SSL/min in those first 14 matches. Then he went on to land a record setting striking total in his last match, where he averaged 9.64 SSL/min. So despite now being 40 years old, he’s continued to make improvements to both his striking output and wrestling. However, given his age and the fact that he’s coming off a knee injury, it will be important to see how he looks on the scale, although we expect him to be fine.
Fight Prediction:
Imavov will have a 4” height advantage, but Cannonier will have a 2” reach advantage. Imavov is 11 years younger than the 40-year-old Cannonier.
Imavov has gone the distance in three of his last four fights, with the one exception being a No Contest that was stopped for an accidental clash of heads. His last two decisions both went five rounds (1-1), and he looked to slow down some as both of those fights went on. Meanwhile, Cannonier has gone the distance in his last three and five of his last six fights, with his last four decisions all going five rounds (3-1). So while both of these two have finishing ability, neither has been ending many recent fights early. They’ve also both been pretty durable, although we did see Cannonier get hurt early in his last fight. No one has ever finished Cannonier at 185 lb and Imavov has never been knocked out in his career. The odds are also heavily weighted towards the over and all indications point towards this fight running long. Cannonier has shown the superior cardio of the two, as well as the ability to put up massive striking totals as of late. Imavov has yet to show the ability to push a high pace for 25 straight minutes and also frequently loses control of his emotions and is prone to committing fouls. None of that is encouraging for his chances of justifying his price tag as the favorite in this matchup and we like Cannonier to pull off the upset in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Jared Cannonier ML” at +115.
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DFS Implications:
Imavov has yet to score more than 100 DraftKings points in any of his eight UFC fights, despite two of his five wins ending in second round TKO victories and another in a five-round decision. He was able to score exactly 100 points in his recent five-round decision win, but notably slowed down after the first round and has yet to show the ability to push the pace for 25 straight minutes. The same was true in his one other five round fight, where he lost a decision to Sean Strickland and only scored 51 DraftKings points. His only two finishes in the UFC both ended in round two and returned DraftKings totals of 98 and 94 points respectively. So his ceiling hasn’t been terrible, but it also hasn’t been overly impressive. Working in his favor, Cannonier is 40 years old and coming off a torn MCL, in addition to having absorbed 305 combined significant strikes in his last two fights (6.10 SSA/min). So If Imavov’s cardio and chin both hold up, he will have a decent shot at putting up a big striking total. Since moving down to 185 lb, Cannonier has never been finished, but we did see him hurt early in his last match and at his age you never know when he’ll start slowing down. And at Imavov’s reasonable price tag, he doesn’t need to lead the slate in scoring to end up in winning tournament lineups. The odds imply Imavov has a 52% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Cannonier has averaged 101 DraftKings in his seven UFC wins since dropping down to 185 lb and is coming off a slate-breaking 155 point performance where he set the Middleweight record for the most significant strikes landed in a fight at 241. He also tacked on four takedowns, after only landing two in his first 15 UFC fights combined. While you could argue that striking explosion was an anomaly based on the rest of his career, he made a point of stating that he needed to increase his output after his decision loss to Adesanya and he then proceeded to set career highs for significant strikes landed in each of his last two matches. With that said, he is now 40 years old, hasn’t competed in a year, and is coming off a torn MCL, all of which add some uncertainty to the mix. He’s also taking on a much younger, taller opponent, who’s never been knocked out and who only averages 3.26 SSA/min. However, we did see Sean Strickland step in on short notice for a five-round fight and land 182 significant strikes against Imavov, scoring 118 DraftKings points and 135 points in the process. That came just a month after Strickland lost a close five-round decision to Cannonier. We’ve seen Imavov slow down some as fights go on and despite Cannonier being significantly older, he’s shown the ability to push a hard 25 minute pace at multiple points and has far more main event experience. And even if we are somewhat overvaluing his recent performance, at his cheap price tag, Cannonier doesn't necessarily need to put up a massive score to end up in winning lineups. He says he’s still looking for another title shot and given his age, he has no time to waste and will need to put on an impressive performance here if he wants to get himself back into title contention. The odds imply Cannonier has a 48% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
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