The Sheet

135 lb:
2020 R1 Sub W
2018 R1 Sub L
2018 R3 KO L
2018 Dec W
2017 R3 KO W
2017 R1 Sub L
2017 R1 Sub W

Domingo Pilarte

Still searching for his first UFC win, Pilarte does notably have wins over two current UFC fighters, with a split decision victory over young stud Adrian Yanez in a 2017 LFA fight and a second round submission victory over Vince Morales on DWCS in 2018. It’s worth noting that Morales nearly finished Pilarte with strikes at the end of the first round before Pilarte came back to submit him in the second.

Pilarte then lost a 2019 split decision in his UFC debut against Felipe Colares before getting knocked out 38 seconds into his most recent fight back in February 2020 against Journey Newson. Fortunately for Pilarte that loss was later overturned to a No Contest when Newson tested positive for THC. It’s now been 18 months since Pilarte last competed and inactivity has plagued him throughout his career.

Pilarte originally turned pro back in 2009, but has only fought more than once in a calendar year a single time in the last 12 years. He also didn’t compete at all in 2011 or 2013. He lost his UFC debut 25 months ago and has only fought once since then. In 12 years Pilarte only has 11 pro fights. He’s won eight of those, including two KOs, four submissions and two decision wins. Both of his official losses have come by decision, but he was knocked out in his last fight before it was later overturned. Three of his four submission wins have notably come by Armbar. Pilarte’s decisions have generally been close and three of the four were split. Pilarte’s only finish since 2016 was his 2018 R2 Submission win on DWCS, although he’s only fought four times since 2016.

Fight Prediction:

Pialrte will have a 6” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.

At 6’0” tall, Pilarte is really tall and long for the 135 lb division. While he’s decent at using his length to land kicks from distance, he looks very hittable at close range. That could prove costly going against a guy like Kelleher who has shown he can knock guys out with his lead left hook as he did against Hunter Azure. Kelleher also has a very dangerous Guillotine Choke if Pilarte looks to get this fight to the mat. With that said, if the fight does get to the ground, Pilarte has three career wins by Armbar Submission and Kelleher has three losses by Armbar, so that’s one plausible way Pilarte wins this fight. The fact that Kelleher is dropping down a weight class and Pilarte is coming off an 18 month layoff also adds some level of uncertainty to the matchup, but we like Kelleher to get a finish here, most likely by KO but the potential for another Guillotine Choke is always there.

Our favorite bets here are “Kelleher Wins by R1 Submission” at +1000, “Fight Ends in R1 Submission” +550 and “Fight Ends in R3 KO” at +1000. You can also consider Kelleher’s R2 and R3 KO lines at +950 and +1200 as his KO wins have generally come in the later rounds, with three of his last four coming in round three.

DFS Implications:

Kelleher has scored at least 91 DraftKings points and 88 FanDuel points in all six of his UFC wins, with DK/FD scores of 115/106, 93/104, 106/115, 91/88, 112/147, and 92/107. You can see he’s generally scored better on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he’s been a consistent producer on both sites. He’s never landed more than one takedown in a UFC fight and only averages 3.92 SSL/min, so it’s tough for him to really score well in a decision. However, 5 of his 6 UFC victories have come early and he’s consistently finished his easier opponents. This looks like another good opportunity for him to land a finish and the oddsmakers agree, giving him the highest chance on the slate to get an early win. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 42% chance to get a finish and a 20% chance it comes in R1.

Pilarte has done nothing inside of the UFC to indicate that he can score well, but he did land a second round submission on DWCS just before joining the UFC that would have scored somewhat decently, and six of his eight career wins have come early. Kelleher has also been susceptible to getting submitted in the first round, which has occurred five times in his career. Three of Kelleher’s six total career submission losses have come by Armbar, as have three of Pilarte’s four career submission wins. So that appears to be a clear enough path to victory for Pilarte to put up a big score. While that’s definitely not the most likely outcome in this fight, Pilarte projects to go low owned so he makes for an intriguing tournament play. This also sets up as a high-variance spot with Kelleher dropping down a weight class and Pilarte coming off an 18 month layoff. We often see spots like that produce a spiked score, although it can be tough to predict for who, so it makes sense to have exposure to both sides. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #7

Luis Saldana

Coming off a very close decision win over Jordan Griffin in his UFC debut, Saldana took the early lead with his striking but was then taken down twice to close out the first round. That continued into round two as Griffin dominated Saldana on the mat and looked seconds away from finishing him with a Rear-Naked Choke, but Saldana was saved by the bell. We didn’t see much happen in the third round as Griffin led just 11-8 in significant strikes, but a failed submission attempt resulted in Saldana spending a minute and a half in top position before Griffin was able to reverse the position and finish the fight on Saldana’s back. The fight ended with Saldana ahead 36-33 in significant strikes and 40-39 in total strikes, while Griffin landed 4 of his 7 takedown attempts and amassed over six minutes of control time.

It was a little strange that the judges all gave Saldana both the close first and third rounds as both of those seemed like coin flips at best for Saldana, but Griffin failed to really set himself apart in a fight where he had the dominant ground advantage. He was made to pay for that with his job as he was released from the UFC following the fight. We thought he won for what it’s worth. Saldana’s corner told him he was going through an adrenaline dump and he certainly looked to be slowing down after the first round. It will be interesting to see if that’s an ongoing issue for him or just Octagon jitters going into his UFC debut.

Prior to his debut, Saldana landed an early R3 KO win on DWCS in November 2020, which was his fourth straight early win. Saldana dominated the striking in that fight as he finished ahead 77-13 in significant strikes with neither fighter attempting a takedown.

Saldana is now 15-6 as a pro, with 14 of his wins ending early with nine KOs and five submissions. Three of his six losses have also come early, with one KO and two submissions. The KO loss came against Mike Santiago, who later went on to fight in the UFC, but went 0-3 before being released—in fairness two of the losses were to Dan Ige and Zabit. Both of Saldana’s submission losses were by Rear-Naked Choke, one in the third round of a 2015 match and the other in the first round of a 2012 fight. Despite all of the finishes, 11 of Saldana’s last 13 fights have made it out of the first round.

Saldana lost his right index finger in a freak accident at work, which may have some effect on the impact of his punches from that right hand, but he seems to have made it work for him. That is notably his power hand as he dominantly fights out of the orthadox stance but he does also switch stances a decent amount. On the bright side, he’s 10% less likely to land an eye poke.

Austin Lingo

Lingo nearly landed a first round KO win in his last fight but Jacob Kilburn was narrowly able to survive to eventually see a decision. Lingo dominated the match as he won a unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27) and led in significant strikes 95-64 and in total strikes 110-78. Kilburn ridiculously went 1 for 18 on his takedown attempts, but many of those were desperation shots as he simply tried to survive. Lingo went 1 for 2 on his own takedown attempts with nearly four minutes of control time.

Prior to that fight, Lingo entered the UFC with a perfect 7-0 pro record, but lost a February 2020 decision in his debut against Youssef Zalal. Lingo landed an anemic 12 significant strikes and one takedown in the loss, and really struggled with both Zalal’s agility and ground control.

Leading up to his UFC debut, Lingo had won five of his previous six fights in the first round. Three of those came by KO and two were by submission. Six of his seven pre UFC fights were in the LFA, with four of his early wins coming in the first 60 seconds. Lingo has shown the ability to close the show quickly when he gets an opponent who’s willing to stand and trade. We haven’t seen enough of Lingo on the UFC level to know if his finishing ability will translate, but he looked incredibly close to getting another quick stoppage in his most recent fight as he dropped Kilburn just 18 seconds into the first round.

Fight Prediction:

Saldana will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

We’re expecting a standup brawl here between two guys that do their best work on the feet. Lingo has been a faster starter with four wins in 35 seconds or less, while five of Saldana’s last seven finishes have come in the later rounds. All four of Lingo’s pro fights to make it past the two and half minute mark have gone the distance, so we’ve seen very bipolar results with him. Saldana mixes in far more kicks, while Lingo is predominantly a boxer. If Lingo can close the distance successfully, he should be able to overwhelm Saldana at close range, as Saldana does his best work out in open space. The smaller Octagon should work in Lingo’s favor, and we like his chances to win with either a first round KO or in a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Lingo Wins by R1 KO” at +1100, but you should also consider his R1 win line at +750 (he does have some submissions on his record), his moneyline at +105, his decision line at +240 and “Fight Ends in R3 KO” at +1000. On Saldana’s side, the two stabs we’re considering are his R2 submission line at +2100 and his R3 KO line at +1900.

DFS Implications:

Saldana was notably just 13% owned on DraftKings as a favorite in his last fight. Albeit that took place on a 14 fight slate, but it would be surprising if he was all of a sudden highly owned after scoring just 54 DraftKings points in the decision win. This looks like a more favorable matchup for him to score well than his last one if he can win, so it looks like a good buy-low spot. With 14 finishes among his 15 career wins, Saldana clearly has DFS upside. However, he only has two first round wins in his last 13 fights and his R3 KO on DWCS would have been good for just 87 DraftKings points, but 108 points on FanDuel. So a similar performance would really only keep him in the FanDuel discussion. He hasn’t attempted a takedown in his last two fights and it’s hard to see him returning value without a finish. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.

Lingo is essentially a one dimensional striker, but he will occasionally mix in a takedown or two and has landed one in each of his two UFC matches. The most intriguing thing about Lingo is his early finishing ability. In his nine career fights, he has five first round finishes with four of those occurring in 35 seconds or less. He was also still able to score 93 DraftKings points and a flukey 146 FanDuel points in his recent decision win. His FanDuel score went nuclear due to the fact that he defended an absurd 17 takedowns against a desperate opponent in Jacob Kilburn. Apparently Lingo’s power can make a wrestler out of anybody as Kilburn didn’t attempt a single takedown in his previous two fights. With that said, we’re not expecting Saldana to shoot for many if any takedowns, as he also hasn’t attempted a takedown in his last two fights. However, even if you take away all of those takedowns defended, Lingo still would have scored 95 FanDuel points and looks to have a solid floor to go along with his cheap price tag. He looks like a great underdog play with one of the better floor/ceiling combinations on the slate if he can pull off the slight upset. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #6

Alexandre Pantoja

Alternating wins and losses over his last five fights, Pantoja is coming off a pair of close decisions with a loss to Askar Askarov followed by a win over Manel Kape. Prior to those two fights going the distance, Pantoja had finished three of his previous four opponents in the first round, with the one exception over that time being a decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo. Pantoja came into the match against Figueiredo on a three fight winning streak and fresh off back-to-back first round wins. The third win over that stretch was a decision victory over Brandon Moreno, which is the last time Moreno lost a fight on his way to eventually winning the Flyweight belt.

That was actually the second time Pantoja has defeated the newfound Flyweight champ, as he submitted Moreno in the second round via Rear-Naked Choke back in 2016 on the Ultimate Fighter. That went down as an exhibition match, as only the finale of TUF counts as an official pro fight, so it won’t show up on either of their official records, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that Pantoja has defeated Moreno not once, but twice, and is the only person to ever finish Moreno in a fight. Pantoja also didn’t just beat Moreno, he smashed him for the whole fight, finishing ahead 30-26 on two of the judges' scorecards. If that’s not impressive, what is? If the UFC wants to build up an exciting title challenger for Moreno, who better to look to than the guy who’s already beat him twice? And sure, Askar Askarov is still ahead of Pantoja in the rankings as is Deiveson Figueiredo, but Pantoja is right behind them as the #3 ranked Flyweight and nipping at their heels. Anyways, that’s the narrative we’re throwing out here, but back to looking at Pantoja’s UFC career.

After losing a three-round decision to Figueiredo in July 2019, Pantoja bounced back by face-planting Matt Schnell late in the first round in December 2019. However, he then suffered another setup back when he lost a close decision to a tough opponent in Askar Askarov. Pantoja looked for several submissions early, but Askarov was able to avoid danger and win a low-volume high-level grappling match. The fight ended with Askarov ahead in significant strikes 41-32 and in total strikes 44-40, while going just 2 of 15 on his takedown attempts. Pantoja went 1 for 2 on his own takedowns, but had no problem pulling guard to look for offense off his back.

In his most recent fight, Pantoja defeated UFC newcomer Manel Kape in another decision. Pantoja led in significant strikes 74-49 and in total strikes 77-51. While he failed on his only takedown attempt, he did defend five of Kape’s seven attempts and was never in any danger on the ground. That decision marked the third time Pantoja has gone the distance in his last four fights after 15 of his first 24 pro fights ended early.

He’s now 23-5 a pro, with eight wins by KO, eight by submission and seven decision victories. Six of his eight submission wins have come by Rear-Naked Choke. Nine of his 16 finishes have occured in the first round (5 Subs & 4 KOs), four in the second (2 Subs & 2 KOs) and three in the third (1 Subs & 2 KOs). All five of his losses have come by decision and he’s never been finished in his 14 year pro career that began when he was just 17 years old.

Pantoja has faced three Southpaws so far in the UFC and defeated all three with a pair of first round finishes and a decision win. He averaged 4.98 SSL/min in those fights. In his seven UFC fights against Orthadox fighters he’s gone 4-3 with a pair of decision wins, a R1 KO and a R3 submission victory. He averaged 4.15 SSL/min in those seven fights. So while it’s still a pretty small sample size, Pantoja has actually been more effective against Southpaws and has landed more volume. Now he goes against another Southpaw in Royval.

Brandon Royval

Looking to bounce back from a nine month layoff following shoulder surgery, Royval is coming off a R1 TKO loss to Brandon Moreno after his shoulder dislocated late in the first round, rendering him helpless as he got pummeled on the mat. Leading up to the injury, Moreno was able to take Royval’s back for an extended period of time and look for submissions in what looked to be a cross between a Twister and a Rear-Naked Choke. The fight lasted a second less than five minutes and Moreno finished with just over three minutes of control time and led in total strikes 53-24 and in takedowns 2-0. Royval did squeak out the lead in significant strikes 17-16 but clearly lost the round.

Royval’s recent surgery wasn’t his first trip under the knife to repair his shoulder as he’s had two previous shoulder surgeries and this has been an ongoing issue for him. Which makes sense, as he and his team all seemed to know the drill as they popped his shoulder back into place immediately following the injury. In an interview with Nolan King last December, Royval discussed the injury and said he was preparing for January surgery for a torn labrum and that it would be about a six month recovery time following surgery. Royval also said they were “removing a piece of his collarbone and putting it on the bridge of his shoulder” because he had been “chipping away at the bone that keeps your shoulder in place.” So that all sounds pretty terrible.

A BJJ blackbelt, Royval exploded onto the UFC scene in May 2020 and quickly climbed the ranks all the way to the #6 spot after just two UFC matches. However, both of those fights were early wins over ranked opponents. Royval made his short notice UFC debut on just a week’s notice against longtime veteran Tim Elliot. In a high paced brawl, Royval was able to submit Elliot half way through the second round with an Arm-Triangle Choke. Showing just how high his expectations of himself are, in a post fight interview he lamented the fact that he didn’t perform better in the fight and was visibly upset with himself. Remember, this was a guy making his UFC debut on one week’s notice who just submitted a top 15 Flyweight with eight years of UFC experience.

Royval stepped back into the octagon four months later against an even higher ranked opponent in Kai Kara France. Royval put on an even more impressive performance in an action packed dust up between two top 10 Flyweights. The high-paced scrap lasted just a minute into the second round before Royval hopped on Kara France’s neck for an impressive Guillotine Choke against an opponent who had previously never been finished inside of the UFC. That marked Royval’s fourth straight win by submission, all coming in the first two rounds.

The pair of impressive submission wins propelled Royval into a matchup against the top contender in Brandon Moreno, where Royval unfortunately suffered the shoulder injury late in the first round to put a disappointing finish to his impressive first year with the organization.

Now 12-5 as a pro, 11 of Royval’s 12 wins have come early, with three KOs and eight submissions. The only time he’s ever been finished was the TKO resulting from the shoulder injury in his most recent fight and all four of his previous career losses went the distance. He’s won seven of his last nine fights, with the only other loss during that stretch coming in a five round decision against Casey Kenney in an LFA title fight. Royval notably fought at 135 lb until 2016 when he dropped down to the 125 lb division. Standing 5’9”, he’s tall for the division and generally has the height advantage in his fights.

Fight Prediction:

Royval will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

Royval is constantly pushing forward with reckless abandonment and throwing everything he has at his opponents, which should bring out the best in Pantoja as he’s the more patient fighter but has no problem throwing down in a brawl if his opponent pushes forward. This fight could easily be headlining this card and at the very least should be the co-main, but disrespect aside, who cares if the card peaks a little early? We’re expecting chaos from the start in this fight as Royval looks to push the pace with flurries of knees and spinning back fists, while Pantoja counters with more measured straight shots. It will be interesting to see who shoots for the first takedown, as it’s possible this plays out more on the feet than expected given how dangerous both men are on the mat from all positions.

We like Pantoja to win, the tougher question to answer is how? Predicting how Royval’s fights will play out is like trying to guess where a trailer will land after it’s picked up by a tornado. With that said, considering 71% of his pro fights have ended with either a submission win (47%) or a decision loss (24%), those are generally the safest bets. However, Pantoja is the toughest opponent Royval has faced in his career (yea we said it) so seeing Royval get knocked out or submitted would not at all be surprising. If we had to rank the possible outcomes for a Pantoja victory we’d order them: decision (most likely), knockout, submission. The last time we saw someone recklessly brawl with Pantoja was Matt Schnell who got face planted late in the first round, so it will be interesting to see if Royval comes in as aggressive as he has in his previous fights.

Our favorite two bets here are “Pantoja R1 Win” at +500 and “Pantoja Wins by Decision” at +180.

DFS Implications:

Pantoja has never been one to score well in decisions, with DK/FD scores of 61/79, 67/82, and 63/82 in his three UFC decision victories. That alone presents a clear path for how this fight fails. However, all three of those decisions were against much slower paced opponents compared to Royval so we would expect a higher floor here. Nevertheless, Pantoja is still likely reliant on landing a finish to return value on either DFS site, so this is not a fight that will automatically produce a high scorer. It’s also important to keep in mind that Pantoja has never been finished and the only time Royval has ever lost early came in his recent shoulder injury against Moreno. It’s always possible he reinjures the shoulder, especially considering this was his third shoulder surgery, but that’s not really something you want to bet on. On a brighter note, Pantoja has finished his opponents in 16 of his 23 career wins and has nine first round victories on his record. Royval’s uptempo pace and frantic fighting style should increase Pantoja’s opportunities in terms of fight ending sequences and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Royval suffer his second straight early loss after rising to the top of the division almost too quickly. Pantoja’s last three early wins have all come in the first round after his first UFC finish came by R3 Rear-Naked Choke. Those four finishes were good for DK/FD totals of 121/141, 110/135, 98/112 and 118/150 showing that Pantoja has a solid chance to lead the slate in scoring if he can land a finish, especially on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 27% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.

Royval exploded into the UFC with back-to-back R2 submission wins as an underdog going against ranked opponents in each of those and therefore quickly became a cult hero as he won betters and DFS players truckloads of money. Those two finishes were good for DK/FD totals of 111/130 and 91/119. All of that early success drove up his ownership to the point that he was 47% owned as an +145 underdog against Brandon Moreno in his last fight. Once again checking in as a +145 underdog for this next match, it will be interesting to see where exactly his ownership ends up—but without question he will be highly owned. Despite being a submission ninja, Royval has only shot for one official takedown so far in the UFC and doesn’t require traditional takedowns to go for submissions as he’ll jump Guillotine, pull guard or simply grab a limb and go to work. Similar to Chase Hooper, the DFS scoring system fails to account for all of his efforts, which slightly hurts his ceiling, but unlike Hooper, Royval has the ability to make up for that with other facets of his game. With that said, Royval has just over 19 minutes of total Octagon time so far in the UFC, so we really have yet to see what his floor and ceiling look like in longer fights. His stats are somewhat deceiving as he only averages 3.77 SSL/min and 2.88 SSA/min, but it’s important to realize that two of his three fights included massive amounts of control time. The only time we saw him stay in open space for any appreciable amount of time was against Kai Kara France and Royval landed 39 significant strikes in five minutes and 48 seconds (6.72 SSL/min). And even in that fight over half the match was accounted for with control time. So he’s fully capable of taking part in a high-volume brawl, but he generally brings down his striking totals with time spent grappling.

Working against Royval, Pantoja has never been finished in 28 pro fights over the last 14 years. In his three UFC decision losses, his opponents put up DK/FD totals of 71/60, 81/108, and 109/84. So while there was one good DK and one good FD score mixed in there, he’s generally been tougher to score well against. While Royval has a proven DFS ceiling, this incredibly tough matchup paired with his high ownership make this a fade spot for tournaments. Obviously you can adjust your exposure to suit your risk tolerance, but being under the field is clearly the play and the more you fade him the more leverage you gain on the field. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #5

Vinc Pichel

While Pichel comes into this fight at 38 years of age, he doesn’t have a ton of mileage on him—at least inside the Octagon—as he has just 15 pro fights and only five since 2014. He’s had to deal with numerous injuries throughout his career and after making his UFC debut in 2012, he didn’t fight at all in 2013, 2015 or 2016. He also fought just once in 2017, 2019 and 2020 and is now coming off a year layoff since his August 2020 decision win over Jim Miller. Despite his fighting infrequency, Pichel has won six of his last seven fights with the one loss coming in a 2018 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission against dominant wrestler, Gregor Gillespie.

While 10 of Pichel’s 15 career fights have ended early, with 8 KO wins, one KO loss and one submission loss, three of his last four and five of his last seven fights have gone the distance. Only one of his six UFC wins has come early, which was a 2017 R1 KO, with his other five wins going the distance. Prior to joining the UFC he had knocked out all seven of his opponents in the first two rounds, but that finishing ability never really translated to the next level. He suffered his first career loss in his UFC debut when he was knocked out in the first round. He then took 13 months off before winning a pair of decisions in 2014 and then he nearly retired following a torn labrum and bicep and didn’t fight again for over three years until June 2017, when he returned with a R1 KO. He followed that up with another decision win before suffering his second career loss at the hands of Gregor Gillespie in a 2018 R2 Submission. Since then he won two more decisions and has now lost just once since his 2012 UFC debut.

While Pichel has never submitted anybody, he has eight wins by KO and has won all five of the decisions he’s been to. Both of his career losses have come early with a 2012 R1 KO in his UFC debut and a 2018 R2 Submission. Pichel is known for his strength and simply overpowers most of his opponents. He averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed eight twakedowns in two of his UFC decision wins and three in two of the others. However, he’s never landed more than 60 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 45 and averages just 3.2 SSL/min and 2.28 SSA/min.

Austin Hubbard

Hubbard’s three UFC wins have come against two fighters making their UFC debuts and another that came in 0-1 with the organization and never fought against afterwards. He’s now alternated wins and losses over his last seven fights, is coming off a win, and has really struggled to ever get any momentum going.

His last fight came against a short notice replacement in Dakota Bush who unsurprisingly struggled with his cardio in the back half of the fight. Despite Bush fading late, Hubbard was still unable to put him away as he won a unanimous 29-28 decision and finished ahead in significant strikes just 67-41, but 126-54 in total strikes. Hubbard landed his only takedown attempt and amassed nearly seven minutes of control time, while defending five of Bush’s six attempts. It was a classic “Thud” Hubbard performance.

Prior to that win, Hubbard was submitted via Rear-Naked Choke in the first round by Joe Solecki, which is just the second time Hubbard has been finished in 18 pro fights with the other coming in a 2016 R2 Rear-Naked Choke in Hubbard’s 5th pro fight. Four of his last six and seven of his last 10 fights have ended in decisions. The only other two of his last 10 fights to end early were a R5 LFA KO win and a R2 TKO by “retirement” after Max Rohskopf literally quit in between the second and third rounds of Hubbard’s second most recent win. Prior to that win, Hubbard lost a wrestling heavy decision to Mark Madsen, where Hubabrd was taken down 8 times on 12 attempts. Continuing his pattern of alternating wins and losses, Hubbard notched his first UFC win in a decision leading up to that fight after losing a decision in his 2019 UFC debut against Davi Ramos.

Hubbard notably started his career at 170 lb, but has been at 155 lb since 2017. Since the move, Hubbard has gone 8-4 with eight of those fights ending in decisions and his three early wins all occurring at least 10 minutes into fights. Hubbard is far from an explosive fighter and relies on wearing down his opponents to defeat them. His best attribute is his durability and he lacks any sort of explosive offense. He only averages 3.66 SSL/min, and only absorbs 2.61/min. He also averages 0.8 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with a 66% takedown accuracy and a 58% defense.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’10” but Pichel will have a 1” reach advantage. However, Hubbard is 9 years younger than the 38-year-old Pichel.

With Hubbard seeing the judges in 7 of his last 10 fights and Pichel going the distance in 5 of his last 7, we’d be surprised if this one ended early. Hubbard’s best attribute has been his durability, while Pichel has excelled at grinding out decisions. We expect the stand up exchanges to be somewhat close with Pichel taking the lead in grappling and his work out of the clinch. Look for a low-volume decision win for Pichel with extended periods of control time.

We love Pichel’s moneyline at -110 and his decision line at +165.

DFS Implications:

In his five UFC decision wins, Pichel put up DK/FD totals of 82/63, 89/82, 61/62, 116/102, and 115/99. He landed eight takedowns in each of his big scores, which both occurred back in 2014. His lone finish in the UFC scored 108 points on DraftKings and 123 points on FanDuel. In Hubbard’s two UFC decision losses his opponents finished with DK/FD scores of 91/77 and 80/76 as Mark Madsen took Hubbard down 8 times on 12 attempts and finished with over eight minutes of control time and Davi Ramos took Hubbard down 3 times on 7 attempts and finished with over four minutes of control time. So neither opponent put up a big score but they both fared better on DraftKings in grappling heavy fights. Pichel has averaged 92.6 DraftKings points in his five decision wins in the UFC and Hubbard’s two opponents to win decisions against him averaged 85.5 points, so it’s probably fair to project that Pichel would score somewhere in that 85-92 point DraftKings range with a decision victory here barring an outlier performance. That range drops down to 76-82 on FanDuel, making him a less appealing play over there. Pichel is best viewed as a high floor, low-ceiling value play. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 14% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

Hubbard has been extremely consistent in his DraftKings scoring with totals of 96, 93 and 93 across his three UFC wins. His FanDuel totals have fluctuated more with scores of 81, 122 and 72. His one big FanDuel score came when Max Rohskopf abruptly quit following the close of the second round, rewarding Hubbard with a R2 TKO. So Hubbard has shown he can serve as a value play on DraftKings with a decision win, but has failed to return value on FanDuel without an early finish. He doesn have a good chance to score from takedowns defended here however, which should help bolster his FanDuel score. With that said, it will still unlikely be enough for him to put up a decent score in a decision and this looks like a tough matchup for Hubbard to win anyways. We like Pichel to win this fight, but even if Hubbard does win he’ll still likely fail to score well, so we’re not very interested in having much exposure to him. However, the odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1. Those odds all seem too high if you ask us.

Fight #4

Trevin Jones

Trevin Jones originally stepped in on short notice after Jesse Strader dropped out against Mana Martinez, but then Martinez also dropped out and Kakhramonov stepped in on even shorter notice. So now we get two short notice replacements squaring off against one another.

Jones had been scheduled to take on Ronnie Lawrence on the recent July 31st card, but Lawrence had to withdraw due to a botched weight cut. Just prior to that Toney Kelley withdrew from a booking with Jones on the previous card. He’s truly had terrible luck keeping opponents as four of his last five booked opponents have withdrawn from his fights.

Jones overcame the odds in his first two UFC matches as he landed a pair of second round knockouts despite coming into both of those matches as the underdog. The comeback R2 KO win in his short notice UFC debut was later rudley overturned to a No Contest when Jones tested positive for THC, but that counts as a KO win in our book.

After stepping into his UFC debut on just two days' notice following a 15 month layoff, Jones was nearly finished in the first round after absorbing a well placed body kick followed by a barrage of violent punches. However, Jones showed off his heart and toughness to stay in the fight and after narrowly hanging on for dear life, he bounced in the second round as he dropped Timur Valiev with a clean right hand to the chin and finished it with ground and pound. That’s notably the only time Valiev has been finished in 21 pro fights. After emptying the chamber in the first round, Valiev finished ahead in significant strikes 66-26, while Jones went 1 for 2 on takedowns before getting the finish.

Jones then had the KO win stripped away from him when he tested positive for THC, so he stepped into his second UFC fight having to reprove himself once again as an underdog. He took on Mario Bautista, who came in 2-1 in the UFC and off a second round Flying Knee KO of Miles Johns in his previous fight. We saw a slower paced first round with Bautista leading in significant strikes 18-16 and in total strikes 40-28 as a third of the round was spent in the clinch with Jones going 0 for 3 on takedowns. Early in the second round Jones dropped Baustista with another powerful right hand that he does a great job of landing as his lead hand out of the Southpaw stance. He then jumped on top and quickly got the fight stopped with ground and pound.

That was actually Jones’ fourth straight early win and third straight second round finish after he landed a R2 submission in his last fight prior to joining the UFC and a first round submission before that. Jones is now 13-6 as a pro plus his No Contest, so he really should be 14-6. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2013 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. He’s never been knocked out, but has lost five decisions. Seven of his 13 career wins have come early, with three KOs and four submissions. Three of his four submissions wins have come in the first round with the other occurring early in R2. His official knockouts have been spread across the three rounds, although now he’s landed two straight in the second round, albeit with one of those being unofficial. Despite all of the finishes, only two of his last 16 fights have ended in the first round and he fought to a pair of five round split decisions (1-1) in 2016 and 2018.

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Making his short notice UFC debut, Kakhramonov is coming off an early second round KO victory for the Cage Fury FC Vacant Bantamweight Championship belt back in March. Kakhramonov looked explosive as he dominated his opponent for the entire fight and he landed several knockdowns in a fight that lasted just five and a half minutes. Prior to that, he knocked out Askar Askar in just 30 seconds.

Kakhramonov also notably fought a super tough Umar Nurmagomedov to a decision, albeit in a loss, back in 2018. While he didn’t win the fight, he had a few moments and showed he wasn’t completely overmatched by the young stud in Nurmagomedov. That fight took place at a 140 lb Catchweight, and the first four pro fights of Kakhramonov’s career were at 145 lb, but all of his other fights have been down at 135 lb where it appears he’ll stay moving forward.

Not once to mince words, here’s a piece of Kakhramonov’s post fight interview after winning the CFFC belt in his last fight:

[Broadcaster] “Saidyokub Kakhramonov, your new CFFC Bantamweight champion, how does it feel, how does it sound?”

“It sounds right, I don’t really give a fuck about this shit, I need my call. Let’s get it, I’m ready next week, next day, any day...These boys came to win, I came to kill...I don’t care about this belt honestly.”

Kakhramonov enters the UFC 8-2 as a pro with three KO wins, three by submission and two decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2019 R3 Flying Knee KO. His lone decision loss came at the hands of Umar Nurmagomedov. His last four fights have all ended early (3-1), with the last three ending in KOs (2-1). Kakhramonov is an explosive striker and has the potential to make some noise in the UFC if he can continue to refine some of his techniques. He gets a little wild at times as he looks to kill his opponents with every shot and that tends to drain his cardio later in fights.

UPDATE: Kakhramonov missed weight by 2.5 lb, which is somewhat understandable considering he took the fight on less than week’s notice.

Fight Prediction:

This should actually be a really fun fight between two explosive strikers who have each proven they can get it done both on the mat and the feet with seven combined submission wins. With that said, Jones has looked like t better grappler and Kakhramonov appears to prefer to keep fights standing. Neither one of them have been to the judges in their last four respective fights, but they’ve also each only been finished once themselves so they’re tough guys to put away. This is a tough spot for Kakhramonov to succeed, but he has a punchers’ chance in any fight he steps into and it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see him knock Jones out early. With that said, we like Jones to wear him down and either get a late finish or win a decision.

We’re still waiting on the full props to be released for this fight, but we’re interested in seeing Kakhramonov’s R1 KO line and Jones’ R2 and R3 win lines.

DFS Implications:

Despite landing back-to-back second round KOs, Jones has scored well but not great due to his lower striking volume and both of those KOs coming in the first two minutes of the second round. He’s only averaged 3.84 SSL/min and has just one takedown in two fights, so Jones appears reliant on landing a finish to score well, and even then, he’s less likely than most to really put up a huge score. His R2 win in his UFC debut scored 98/109 DK/FD points, although that no longer shows up correctly on DraftKings after it was later overturned. His most recent 2nd round finish was good for 94 DraftKings points and 101 points on FanDuel. He has attempted five takedowns in those two fights, but he only landed one of those. That does at least leave open the potential for him to bolster his scores with grappling stats, especially against a dangerous striker like Kakhramonov. Either way, it’s still hard to see Jones being useful in DFS if this fight goes the distance. The odds imply he has a 57%% chance to win, a 40% chance to get a finish and an 18% chance it comes in R1.

Kakhramonov looks like an interesting young prospect with lethal striking and a knack for finishes. His last three wins have all come in six minutes or less, with two occurring in the first round and one taking just 30 seconds. He’s still young at just 25-years-old with just 10 pro fights to his name, but he certainly appears to have the raw talent to compete at the UFC level. With that said, it remains to be seen if his finishing ability will translate to the next level, and taking this fight on less than week’s notice makes it a high variance spot. At his cheap price tag, it’s possible he could serve as a value play with a high-volume decision win, and he has the potential to defend some takedowns on FanDuel, but he’ll need a finish to put up a big score. Jones has notably never been knocked out, but has been submitted once in his career. The odds imply Kakhramonov has a 43% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #3

Chase Sherman

Coming off a decision loss to Andrei Arlovski, Sherman started out decently before unsurprisingly fading late in a high-volume stand up battle that Arlovski led 105-88 in significant strikes with no other stats to speak of. That broke a four fight winning streak for Sherman, although three of those were outside of the UFC and the other was against Ike Villanueva, so it might as well have been. Sherman’s three first round KOs outside of the UFC in 2018 and 2019 should all be taken with a massive grain of salt as they all came against terrible opponents.

Sherman originally went 2-5 in the UFC from 2016 to 2018 before being released late in 2018 following his third straight loss. He then landed three consecutive R1 KOs with Square Ring Promotions, before getting called back up to the big show in 2020 against an overweight and under talented Light Heavyweight in Ike Villanueva, who attempted to move up to Heavyweight for his UFC debut. Ike tipped the scales at 232 lb off his couch, while Sherman came in at 253 lb and had a 3” height advantage. Sherman easily wore down the smaller opponent before finishing him early in R2. However, following the fight Sherman was suspended for nine months when he tested positive for an illegal estrogen blocker before returning for his recent loss.

In Sherman’s first seven UFC fights he was knocked out three times, spread out across the first three rounds. He also lost a pair of decisions. His only two wins both came in 2017 with a R2 KO followed by a decision victory. That KO win came against Rashad Coulter, who went 1-3 in the UFC and has been knocked out in the first two rounds in four of his last five fights, including by Ike Villanueva in 2019 which prompted Coulter to appear to finally hang it up as any rational person would.

While 18 of Sherman’s 22 pro fights have ended early, 3 of his last 6 UFC fights have gone the distance. He’s the type of Heavyweight that can capitalize on inferior competition but is unlikely to overperform. Working in Sherman’s favor, he now faces another suspect talent.

Parker Porter

Looking to keep his momentum going after pulling off an upset as a +185 underdog to notch his first UFC win, Porter won an ultra high-volume low-level brawl against a terrible Josh Parisian in November 2020. Porter led in significant strikes 126-114 and in total strikes 164-123, while tacking on a pair of takedowns on four attempts and nearly four and half minutes of control time.

Three months prior to the win Porter made his short notice UFC debut against Chris Daukaus and was knocked out late in the first round. That was the third time Porter has been knocked out in R1 in 16 pro fights. He’s also been submitted twice (R1 & R3) and lost once in the first round due to a DQ for punches to the back of the head.

Porter has only been to two decisions in his 16 fight career and only one in his last 14 matches, which came in his most recent bout. Half of his career fights have ended in R1 (3-5), two have ended in R2 (both submission wins) and four have ended in R3 (3-1). So despite his physique, he actually appears to improve as fights go on. Porter’s last R1 win was all the way back in 2011.

More of a piece of trivia than a notable stat, Porter actually moved down to Light Heavyweight one time back in 2008 and lost a fight to Jon Jones in just 36 seconds in what was Jones’ 5th pro fight and Porter’s 3rd.

Despite his nearly 14 year pro career, he’s only fought 16 pro fights. After turning pro in 2007, he took off 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017. Since returning from a two and a half year layoff in January 2018, he’s fought six times, going 4-2 with two R3 KO’s, a R2 Kimura Submission and his recent decision win.

Fight Prediction:

Sherman will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage and is also 5 years younger than the 36-year-old Porter.

We expect to see a high-volume brawl here between two lower level Heavyweights. While Sherman doesn’t even know how to spell takedown, Porter landed two in his last fight and has three submission wins on his record. So don’t be surprised if Porter looks to take this fight to the ground at some point. We see this fight going one of two ways, either Sherman knocks Porter out in the first round and a half or Porter mixes in some grappling, wears Sherman out and either finishes him in the later two rounds or wins a decision. Both of these guys are so bad it’s impossible to say which way it plays out.

Our favorite bets here are “Porter Wins by Submission” at +900, “Porter Wins by R2 Submission” at +2900, “Porter Wins in R3 or by Decision” at +330 and “Sherman Wins by R1 KO” at +290.

DFS Implications:

Sherman scored well in his two R2 KOs with DK/FD scores of 100/118 and 124/149, and scored 75/102 points in his lone decision win. So it’s clear his skillset is better suited for the FanDuel scoring system as he has no grappling game to prop up his DK totals, with zero takedowns in nine UFC fights. While we don’t have much confidence in Sherman as a fighter, this actually looks like a near perfect spot for him in DFS. He’s coming off a loss, so should get a bump down in ownership and is going against an opponent with five first round losses on his record. Sherman also lands the 5th highest average number of significant strikes per minute on the slate at 6.00, while Porter absorbs the most on the slate at 7.36/min. There’s also a decent chance Porter attempts some takedowns, and Sherman owns a 77% takedown defense to further bolster his FanDuel ceiling. Sherman has a legitimate chance to lead the slate in scoring, but also has a good chance to get finished himself. So overall this is a high-variance spot that’s perfect for tournaments and you’ll want exposure to both sides. The odds imply Sherman has a 64% chance to win, a 40% chance to get a finish and a 17% chance it comes in R1.

Porter filled up the statsheet in his last fight with 126 significant strikes, 164 total strikes, a pair of takedowns, a submission attempt and nearly four and a half minutes of control time. That was good for 106 DraftKings points and 113 points on FanDuel. While it’s hard to expect him to go out and do that everytime, this once again sets up for a ton of volume as Sherman averages 6.00 SSL/min and 5.77 SSA/min, while Porter averages 7.69 SSL/min and 7.36 SSA/min. Once again priced near the bottom of the barrel, Porter has a very strong chance to serve as a value play with upside with any sort of win here. The only downside is that we expect his recent performance to drive his ownership up somewhat. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 8% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #2

Mark Madsen

A former silver medalist Olympic Greco-Roman Wrestler, Madesen has tons of wrestling experience, but switched to MMA late in his career and is still pretty green with his striking. While he did have a pair of pro MMA fights back in 2013 and 2014, he didn’t really fully commit to MMA until after the 2016 Olympics and his third pro MMA fight occurred just in 2018. He started off competing at 170 lb until he joined the UFC and dropped down to 155 lb. He had previously wrestled at 163-165 lb.

Madsen made his UFC debut in 2019, a few days after his 35th birthday. In what was his first fight ever competing at 155 lb, he quickly landed a takedown and finished the fight in 72 seconds via ground and pound. The win came against Danilo Belluardo, who entered 0-1 in the UFC and was released following his second loss, so it didn’t come against the most impressive competition by any means.

Following the quick win in his debut, Madsen dealt with a shoulder injury and a staph infection before stepping back inside the Octagon six months later for his second and most recent UFC fight in March of 2020. In that match, Madeson took on Austin Hubbard, who entered 1-1 in the UFC. Madsen was able to control Hubbard for the first two rounds with his wrestling but appeared to be gassing out late as Hubbard took the third round. The fight ended with Madsen going 8 for 12 on his takedown attempts with over eight minutes of control time, but Hubbard leading in significant strikes 41-15 and in total strikes 45-20. Madsen showcased his wrestling ability in the match, but also showed a clear hole in his game when it comes to striking as he appears to be a one dimensional wrestler with no stand up game. He really just uses his striking to close the distance and look for takedowns.

Madsen did notably break his jaw early in the second round in that fight, which could definitely have played a factor in him slowing down late in the fight and is part of the reason he now hasn’t fought in 17 months since. Apparently after his jaw surgery he suffered an infection that required a second surgery. He then tested positive for COVID after finally recovering from the jaw injury. After that he dealt with various family ordeals and apparently his life has been in shambles.

Madsen still owns a perfect 10-0 record, with three KOs, three submissions and four decision wins, but four of his last six fights have gone the distance. Two of his six finishes notably came in 2013 and 2014 when he was fighting at 168 lb against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 0-1. And two of his more recent finishes came against opponents who entered with records of 1-0 and 0-0, so he only has two finishes against opponents with more than one pro fight of experience. One of those was Dez Parker, who came in 9-8 and retired after getting knocked out by Madsen and the other was Danilo Belluardo in Madsen’s UFC debut, who came in 12-4 (0-1 in the UFC), was cut following the loss and has been knocked out in the first two rounds in three of his last four fights. So we’ve yet to see Madesen finish anyone decent in his career. All four of Madesn’s fights to make it past the first round notably ended in three-round decisions.

Clay Guida

Guida is coming off his first win in his last three fights and just his second win in his last five. He’s done more losing than winning over the last decade as he’s gone 7-9 since winning a decision over Anthony Pettis in June 2011. Guida has just one early win in the last 10 and a half years, which came in a 2017 R1 KO over an aging Joe Lauzon who was in the midst of a three fight losing streak and 11 months away from retiring. In Guida’s other 16 fights since 2011, he’s won seven decisions, lost three decisions, been knocked out twice and submitted four times. His last three submission losses were all first round Guillotine Chokes, which is notable because Madesen has two first round Guillotine Submission wins on his record—although both occurred in his first three pro fights.

So while 20 of Guida’s 36 pro wins have come early, with seven KOs and 13 submissions, only one of those finishes has occurred in the last decade. Seven of his last eight wins have gone the distance, while six of his last seven losses have ended early (R1 Guillotine, R1 Guillotine, R3 KO, R1 Guillotine, R2 Rear-Naked Choke & R3 KO). Prior to his June 2020 decision loss to Bobby Green, Guida hadn’t lost a decision since 2012.

In his recent decision win, Guida defeated another struggling veteran in Michael Johnson, who came in on a three fight losing streak before extending it to four. Guida landed 3 takedowns on 7 attempts with nearly seven minutes of control time, while Johnson came out slightly ahead 58-49 in significant strikes and 70-65 in total strikes. That was Guida’s third fight to go the distance in his last four outings and it seems like at this stage in his career his fights generally make it to the judges as long as Guida can avoid getting submitted via Guillotine in the first round.

Fight Prediction:

Madsen will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

Guida averages 3.4 takedowns landed per 15 minutes on 9 attempts, but lands just an average of 2.44 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 2.57/min. Madsen has similar striking averages at 2.28 SSL/min and 2.53 SSA/min, but that’s over a MUCH smaller sample size (30 UFC fights vs. 2). Madsen has also averaged 8.3 takedowns landed on 13 attempts per 15 minutes over his short 16 minute and 12 second UFC career, so it will be interesting to see how the 68% takedown defense of Guida holds up. While Guida has only been taken down twice in his last 10 fights, the only person to even attempt a takedown in those 10 matches was Bobby Green, who landed two of his three attempts. So while Guida has had to navigate several dangerous submission threats like Jim Miller, Brian Ortega and Charles Oliveira, he really hasn’t had to defend many takedowns. If Guida can keep this fight standing, we like him to come out ahead in the striking exchanges and wear Madsen down as the fight progresses. That would give Guida a great chance to win a decision with a very slight chance for a late finish. It’s also possible that Madsen’s wrestling will prove to be too much for Guida, but that’s far from a given, especially as the fight goes on and Madsen begins to slow down as Guida clearly has the cardio advantage. As long as he can avoid getting Guillotined in the first round, we like Guida’s chances to win a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Guida Wins by Decision” at +290. We also like “Guida R3 Win” at +2100, “Madsen R1 Win” at +850 and “Madsen R1 Submission” at +1500.

DFS Implications:

Madsen has unsurprisingly scored pretty well on DraftKings in both of his UFC wins as his R1 KO victory in his 2019 debut was good for 106/119 DK/FD points, while his recent wrestling-heavy decision victory scored 91/77 DK/FD points. While he landed eight takedowns on 12 attempts along with eight minutes of control time in that decision win, he really didn’t add much at all in the striking department as he landed just 15 significant strikes in the 15 minute fight. So while that scored decently on DraftKings, it failed to return value on FanDuel. Madsen now gets a tougher matchup to put on a dominating wrestling performance, so he’ll be more reliant on getting an early finish to score well. His cardio looked pretty suspect at the end of his last fight, although he was battling through a broken jaw, and he’s never finished an opponent beyond the first round, so you’re likely relying on a first round finish for him to be useful at his price. Working in Madsen’s favor, Guida has been finished in six of his last seven losses, including R1 Guillotine Chokes in three of his last five losses. However, the only two people to finish Guida in the last five years were Guillotine ninjas Jim Miller and Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira, so the stats can be somewhat deceiving. Regardless, if Madsen does win, it will most likely come from either an early finish or a wrestling heavy decision, so he makes for a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

Outside of his one early win in the last decade, Guida has generally struggled to put up big scores, but he has benefited from the new DraftKings scoring system and has shown a decent floor. At times, he’s been able to rack up control time and total strikes, which allowed him to score 92 DraftKings points in a decision win against Erik Koch in 2017, while only scoring 55 points on FanDuel. He also scored 94 DraftKings points in a decision win against Robert Peralta in 2015, which was only good for 77 points on FanDuel. So generally he’s a better play on DraftKings based on his wrestling heavy approach, but this matchup is unique in the sense that we expect Guida to be defending a ton of takedowns opposed to attempting them. That actually makes him more interesting on FanDuel, however, if Madsen is able to force this into a grappling match at times then it could still allow Guida to score decently on both sites with a win. We’re looking at Guida as more of a value play than a fighter with a high ceiling, but if Madsen does gas out late in the fight Guida could have a sneaky FanDuel ceiling. With that said, Guida’s most likely path to victory will be to defend takedowns and win a lower-volume striking battle to get the nod from the judges, which would struggle to score well on DraftKings and be entirely reliant on a ton of takedowns defended to even serve as a value play on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #1

Jared Cannonier

Ten months removed from a three-round decision loss to Robert Whittaker in a fight that had the potential to propel Cannonier into a title fight, Cannonier had won his previous three fights since dropping down to Middleweight (185 lb) in 2018. Cannonier finished behind Whittaker in significant strikes 69-53 and in total strikes 75-58. He was able to defend both of Whittaker’s takedown attempts, but Whittaker dropped Cannonier with a head kick in the third round and nearly got a finish. Whittaker was forced to settle with a unanimous 29-28 decision win, despite Cannonier recovering from the head kick and attempting to mount a late comeback before the fight ended.

In one of the great transformative changes you’ll see in a professional athlete, Cannonier went from losing his UFC debut at Heavyweight to being a Middleweight contender in just five year time (2015-2020). Cannonier came into the UFC at 235 lb and got knocked out in the first round of his debut by Southpaw fighter Shawn Jordan. Undeterred, Cannonier tried adding on 6 lb to be more competitive at Heavyweight. And it appeared to work as he won his second UFC fight with a R1 KO of his own. Nevertheless, he decided that Light Heavyweight would be a better weight for him and cut down to 204 lb over the next several months. Eight months after his first win in the UFC at Heavyweight, Cannonier won a decision at Light Heavyweight against a tough Ion Cutelaba.

Cannonier was then thrown into the Light Heavyweight gauntlet with fights against Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes in three of his next four fights. He survived to lose decisions against Teixeira and Blachowicz but was knocked out by the Southpaw Reyes in the first round. In his fight in between his losses to Teixeira and Blachowicz, Cannonier did get a R3 KO against a debuting Nick Roehrick, who took the fight on just 3 days notice and never fought with the organization again.

Following consecutive losses to Blachowicz and Reyes, Cannonier dropped another 20 lb to move down to Middleweight. At 34 years old and testing his third UFC weight class, the late bloomer appeared to have finally found his home.

Cannonier seemed to hang on to much of his Heavyweight power, while gaining the speed and quickness of a Middleweight as he got leaner. Rattling off three straight KO wins, each in under six minutes, Cannonier shot up the Middleweight rankings and soon found himself one win away from a potential title shot before suffering the recent loss to Whittaker.

Notable in Cannonier’s career, he only began training full time going into the fight against Roehrick. He had previously been working a full time job and training on the side in Alaska. Shifting his focus to being all in on his UFC career, he went down to Phoenix, ARI and trained at MMA Lab for two months and then later relocated there permanently.

Cannonier has never been submitted and his only two KO losses came in his UFC debut and then in the fight against Reyes. His other three career losses were decisions against Teixeira, Blachowicz and Whittaker. His last four wins have been by KO and 11 of his 13 career wins have come early, including 9 KO's and two submissions. This will be the second five round fight of Cannonier’s career, after he previously knocked out Jack Hermansson in the second round of a 2019 match scheduled to go 25 minutes.

Cannonier has only landed one takedown in his 11 UFC fights, but has been taken down 17 times on 37 attempts. However, while he only holds a 54% career takedown defense, he’s had a 78% takedown defense since dropping down to 185 lb, where he’s only allowed four takedowns on 18 attempts. While he has plenty of power in his hands, his most dangerous attack appears to be his leg strikes, which he finished Southpaw Anderson Silva with in the first round of a 2019 match. In his last three fights, Cannonier has landed 37 leg strikes in just over five rounds of action. That’s good for 1.47 leg strikes per minute. That’s not an overwhelming number, but he throws so much power into his leg strikes that it doesn’t take many landed to cause serious damage to his opponents.

Because leg strikes are such a big part of Cannonier’s approach and he’s now facing a Southpaw fighter in Gastelum, we looked at how Cannonier has previously fared going against Southpaws, opposed to Orthadox style fighters. Cannonier has faced four Southpaws since joining the UFC and here are the results:

2019 R1 TKO Win by Leg Kick vs. Anderson Silva (Middleweight)
2018 R1 TKO Loss vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight)
2016 R3 Decision Win vs. Ion Cutelaba (Light Heavyweight)
2015 R1 KO Loss vs. Shawn Jordan (UFC Debut at Heavyweight)

Career Leg Strikes Landed vs. Southpaw Fighters: 0.70 landed/min. Career Leg Strikes Landed vs. Orthadox Fighters: 0.63 landed/min.

Four of Cannonier’s 11 UFC fights have ended in the first round and three of those were against Southpaws (1-2). Those two R1 KO losses against Southpaws are the only two times Cannonier has been finished early in his career, however, one of those was in his 2015 UFC debut at Heavyweight and the other was in 2018 at Light Heavyweight against Dominick Reyes.

Kelvin Gastelum

Also coming off a loss to Robert Whittaker, Gastelum lost a unanimous 45-50 five-round decision back in April 2021. Whittaker easily dictated the action as he outlanded Gastelum 150-62 in significant strikes and 169-70 in total strikes. He also landed 4 of 7 takedowns, while stuffing 4 of Gastelum’s 5 attempts.

Gastelum now has just one win in his last five fights, which came in a grappling heavy decision over Ian Heinisch earlier in 2021. Prior to that win, Gastelum was submitted in the first round by Jack Hermansson after losing a three-round split decision to Darren Till and a five round decision to Israel Adesanya.

Looking a little more closely at Gastelum’s lone win over that five fight stretch, which came in a grappling-heavy decision over Ian Heinisch, Gastelum amazingly landed as many takedowns in that fight (6) as he had in his previous 12 fights combined. He set a career high in takedowns landed and attempted, and he amazingly accounted for 33% of his career takedowns in just 6.84% of his total career Octagon time up to that point. He accomplished that feat against Ian Heinisch (59% career takedown defense), who had been taken down four or more times in two of his previous six fights, so it wasn’t completely out of nowhere. Gastelum is now 19 of 51 on takedowns in his UFC career and owns just a 37% takedown accuracy. He’s only landed more than one takedown in three of his 19 UFC fights, which occurred in 2013 (3), 2015 (2) and 2021 (6). Despite his general lack of takedowns, he is a black belt in 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu and has a high school and college wrestling background.

​​This will be Gastelum’s 7th five-round fight in the UFC. His first was at Welterweight (170 lb) back in 2015, while his most recent five have been at Middleweight (185 lb). In his six five-round UFC fights, Gastelum is 1-4 plus a “No Contest” (originally a R1 KO win overturned for pot). In his first UFC five-round event, he lost a split-decision to Neil Magney in 2015, where Gastelum landed both a pair of knockdowns and takedowns in a low-volume affair. In his second five-round fight, Gastelum knocked out 40-year-old Vitor Belfort in the first round of a 2017 match, but the results were overturned to a “No Contest” when Gastelum tested positive for pot. Again he landed two knockdowns, this time in under four minutes of action.

Next, he was submitted by Chris Weidman in the third round of a 2017 low-volume fight scheduled to go five rounds, but Gastelum did land another knockdown in the fight. He immediately bounced back from the loss with a R1 KO of 38-year-old Michael Bisping in his next main event, where he once again landed a knockdown. In his second most recent five round fight, he lost a decision to Israel Adesanya in 2019, but that time it was Adesanya landing the knockdowns—putting up a massive total of four in 25 minutes of action. We didn’t see any knockdowns landed in Gastlemum’s recent five-round decision loss to Whittaker. So Gastelum had an impressive run from 2015 to 2018 where he landed eight knockdowns across seven UFC fights, but he has now failed to land any knockdowns in his last five bouts dating back to 2018.

Gastelum is now 16-7 a pro and while 10 of his 16 career wins have come early (6 KOs & 4 Submissions), his last two wins both ended in decisions and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2017 when he knocked out a half retired Michael Bisping. He’s settled into being more of a decision fighter as five of his last six fights have gone the distance, with two of those going the full 25 minutes. Only 2 of his 7 career losses have ended early, both by submission, with a 2020 R1 Heel Hook Submission loss against Jack Hermansson and a 2017 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke loss against Chris Weidman. He’s never been knocked out.

Gastelum has fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb in the UFC. He went 5-1 at 170 lb, including two R1 submission wins and four decisions (3-1). He then fought Tyron Woodley at a 180 lb Catchweight in 2015 and lost a decision and has gone 6-5 plus a “No Contest” at 185 lb. He’s been fighting exclusively at 185 lb since 2016.

UPDATE: Gastelum missed weight by a quarter pound initially but was given an extra hour to try and hit the mark. He weighed in a second time about 30 minutes later and made weight and overall looked fine.

Fight Prediction:

Cannonier will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, but he’s also eight years older than the 29-year-old Gastelum.

The craziest thing about this fight is that when Cannonier was fighting at Heavyweight (weighing in at 241 lb) in 2016, Gastelum was fighting at Welterweight (170 lb). Now they’ll square off at Middleweight (185 lb). With both of these fighters coming off decision losses to Robert Whittaker, it seems fair to consider how they both did in those fights. Cannonier landed 53 significant strikes across three rounds (3.53 SSL/min), while he absorbed 69 (4.60 SSA/min). He also defended both of Whittaker’s takedown attempts, but was knocked down and badly hurt in the third round. Gastelum landed 62 significant strikes across five rounds of action (2.48 SSL/min), while he absorbed 150 (6.00 SSA/min). Gastelum was also taken down four times on seven attempts while only landing one of his own five attempts. While those aren’t perfect comparisons as one of those was a three round fight, while the other was a five rounder, it supports the overall career data that Gastelum lands slightly less strikes than Cannonier, while absorbing more.

While this is just Cannonier’s second five round fight of his career and he’s never been to the championship rounds, it’s Gastelum’s 7th and three of those went the full 25 minutes. So if this does make it past the 15 minute mark it will be interesting to see how Cannonier’s cardio holds up. Considering even he doesn’t know the answer to that, it’s possible he paces himself more than normal during the middle rounds and tries to slow this fight down if he can’t finish Gastelum early. Gastelum has gone 10 for 33 (30%) on takedowns in his last five fights and we expect him to continue to inefficiently shoot for takedowns here. If he is able to find some success in taking the fight to the ground, it would more likely be in contribution to winning a decision opposed to looking for a finish. Gastelum hasn’t submitted anybody since 2014 and Cannonier has never been submitted. So the only way we see this fight ending early is with a knockout, which both guys are capable of landing. Otherwise we expect a lower volume decision. Eleven of Gastelum’s last 14 fights have made it past the first round and 10 have made it at least to round three, with eight going the distance. Similarly, seven of Cannonier’s last nine fights have made it out of R1, with five seeing the third round and four of those ending in decisions. So the chance for a finish in the first two rounds are somewhat slim, but not impossible. If Cannonier can tear up Gastelum’s lead leg early it could completely change the trajectory of this fight and Gastelum is always dangerous with his left hand. We still think the most likely outcome is for this to go the distance, but if it ends early we would expect it to come from a mid round KO.

We’re not really excited about any of the lines here, but you can consider Gastelum’s R1 KO line at +1300 as a dart throw or his decision line at +410.

DFS Implications:

Even if Cannonier had gotten the nod from the judges in his recent three-round decision loss, he still would have scored just 53 DraftKings points and 58 points on FanDuel. If you extend that pace over five rounds it would have scored just 69 DraftKings points and 83 FanDuel points. He only has one takedown in 11 UFC fights and averages just 3.7 significant strikes landed per minute, as he’s never landed more than 84 significant strikes in a fight. Further limiting his upside, Gastelum only absorbs 3.24 significant strikes per minute on average, but is notably coming off a personal worst 150 significant strikes absorbed against Robert Whittaker. Prior to that, the only fighter to ever land more than 70 significant strikes on Gastelum was Adesanya, who landed 109 over the course of five rounds. We don’t expect Cannonier to come close to matching Whittaker’s striking total if this fight goes the distance, which will leave Cannonier reliant on a finish to score well, especially on DraftKings. Also concerning for his scoring outlook, his last two R2 KO wins scored just 92 and 93 DraftKings points (119 & 124 points on FanDuel), although that can largely be attributed to the fact they each occurred in the first 39 seconds of the round. Also, his lone R3 KO scored just 85 DraftKings points, but 106 points on FanDuel. He generally defends a decent number of takedowns to help his FanDuel scoring and his FanDuel outlook is especially brighter in this matchup as Gastelum owns a career takedown accuracy of just 37% and has landed only 10 of 33 (30%) takedown attempts in his last five fights. And while Cannonier only has a 54% career takedown defense, that number shoots up to 78% if we just look at his fights at Middleweight. So there’s a good chance for Cannonier to finish with a decent number of takedowns defended and he can potentially still put up a somewhat usable score in a decision on FanDuel if he can surpass his career average in striking volume. So overall he’s a much better play on FanDuel than DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 32% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.

Gastelum has the potential to boost his scoring with grappling as we saw against Ian Heinisch in his second most recent fight when Gastelum landed a career high six takedowns on 14 attempts. That allowed Gastelum to score 95/94 DK/FD points, but other than that anomaly his DFS outlook has been similar to Cannonier’s, where his low-volume striking (3.52 SSL/min) leaves him reliant on landing finishes to score well, and even then it’s not a guarantee beyond the first round. In his second most recent decision win, Gastelum scored just 63 DraftKings points and 88 points on FanDuel. That FanDuel score was bolstered by 8 takedowns defended and Cannonier hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last six fights. If you take those away, he would have scored just 64 points on FanDuel. Even if we extend that pace over five rounds it would still score just 85 DraftKings points and 93 points on FanDuel, so if Gastelum is unable to get this fight to the ground he’ll have a tough time scoring well without a finish. Looking at Gastelum’s striking, he’s only landed above 67 significant strikes twice in 19 UFC fights—91 in his five round title fight against Adesanya in 2019 and 124 in a 2016 three round bout against Johny Hendricks. He’s only topped 88 DraftKings points in two of his last 10 fights—a 2017 R1 KO over Bisping where he scored 106 points and his recent wrestling explosion against Heinisch where he scored 95 points. In his six previous five round fights in the UFC, Gastelum is 1-4 plus a No Contest (originally a R1 KO win overturned for pot). If we count his overturned KO as a R1 win, his DK/FD scores in his five-round fights have been 32/52, 49/61, 106/120, 21/46, 122/140 and 76/92. So he still would have scored decently against Magny had the 2015 decision gone his way, but the same cannot be said in his most recent two five-round decisions against Whittaker and Adesanya, where he still would have finished with just 62/72 and 79/81 DK/FD points respectively. His discounted price makes it tougher for him to fail with any sort of win, but it’s still not impossible that he wins a very low volume decision and still doesn’t crack the optimal lineup. The odds imply Gastelum has a 43% chance to win this fight, an 18% chance it comes early and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.

Overall, this looks like another potentially fadeable main event, which we predicted last week and that was left out of the optimal lineup on both FanDuel and DraftKings. You’ll still want some exposure as there are still ways for it to score well, but definitely dial it back some and focus more of your Cannonier exposure onto FanDuel and more of your Gastelum exposure onto DraftKings.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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