The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Fletcher vs. Ramaska Fight Prediction:

Fletcher is a 135 lb English grappler, while Ramaska is a 145 lb/155 lb Lithuanian special forces madman and we expect the size and aggression of Ramaska to play a major factor in this matchup. However, cutting weight twice in two weeks will also likely be tougher for Ramaska than Fletcher and could potentially impact his cardio and/or durability. It also looked like both of these two had staph two weeks ago when this fight was canceled right after the slate locked, which adds even more volatility into the mix. While Ramaska’s recklessness could result in him being taken down, he has a fair amount of grappling experience, although has been a little overly content with relying on referee stand ups when he’s on his back. So there is some concern that he could lose minutes on the mat, but we also don’t trust a 135 lb English grappler to hold him down for 15 minutes. Ramaska is bigger and stronger than Fletcher and he should be able to overwhelm Fletcher with his physicality whenever the fight is standing. So look for Fletcher to do everything he can to turn this into a grappling match. That increases the chances for this to end in a submission, although Ramaska could also catch Fletcher shooting in and knock him out. While Ramaska’s lack of defense makes him a tough guy to trust, he’s the far more dangerous fighter in this matchup and we like his chances of pulling off the upset with a finish.

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Fight #11

Petroski vs. Budka Fight Prediction:

Both of these two are one-dimensional grapplers with cardio concerns, but Petroski has looked better everywhere and we’re not convinced that Budka has done anything to earn his spot on the roster. Sometimes when you have two grapplers squaring off you end up getting a sloppy striking battle, but the chances of that happening with these are lower. Budka generally insists on grappling regardless of the matchup and has shown no real striking ability, while Petroski has said had multiple points that he wants to face all of the wrestlers/grapplers in the division to show he’s the best. We’d be surprised to see anyone get knocked out here, but Petroski will have a decent shot at locking up a submission and he likes to try and snatch up opponents’ necks during grappling exchanges. We saw him quickly lock up an Anaconda choke against another wrestler in Nick Maximov, who is significantly more talented than Budka, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome here. And if he can’t complete a submission, then we still like Petroski’s chances of getting his hand raised in a decision, although the potential for one or both of these two to gas out could make things a little dicey in round three.

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Fight #10

Amorim vs. Demopoulos Fight Prediction:

This is another matchup between two grapplers, although Demopoulos has no problem throwing down on the feet. Despite Demopoulos’ terrible 41% striking defense, she should hold the advantage on the feet and will aggressively come forward and pressure her opponents. She also has better cardio than Amorim and has an uncanny ability to steal fights on the scorecards. She got outlanded 143-109 in significant strikes in a pure stand up battle in her most recent decision win, after finishing behind 5-0 in takedowns, 10:10-0:42 in control time, and 34-31 in significant strikes in her previous decision victory. We picked her to lose both those fights and thought she clearly lost each of them, but the judges disagreed. We’d be surprised to see Amorim finish Demopoulos, or win a striking battle, which leaves Amorim reliant on winning the fight on the ground, while also avoiding another Demopoulos robbery. That starts to get pretty thin as a big favorite, leaving us no choice but to join the dark side and bet on Demopoulos at plus money. It’s possible that Amorim could gas out and get finished by Demopoulos late, and apparently nothing matters in Demopoulos’ fights when they hit the scorecards. Demopoulos has fought to five straight decisions and arguably should be 1-4 in those fights, but instead is 4-1. Maybe we’ll see some regression here and the judges will finally get it right, and it kind of feels like chasing, but we’ll take a small stab on Demopoulos at a wide price tag.

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Fight #9

Santos vs. Yizha Fight Prediction:

Both of these two are pretty good grapplers and Yizha showed more of a willingness to strike in the second season of Road to UFC, after he lost a split decision in the finals of the first season. Santos is an aggressive striker himself, with his one concern being his durability, as he’s coming off a violent knockout loss and we’ve seen him hurt badly on the regional scene as well. Both of these two are largely unproven, as neither of them have ever won a UFC fight, and now Santos is coming off a 15 month layoff. That leaves a lot of room for volatility and it’s hard to be overly confident in either of these two. Santos has had the tougher strength of schedule, so it’s understandable why he’s the favorite, but the number seems a little wide. We’re expecting a high-paced fight with a combination of striking and wrestling that opens all sorts of potential outcomes. So we don’t mind leaning into that uncertainty and taking the dog shot on Yizha, but it’s not a spot that we want to be heavily invested in.

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Fight #8

Lima vs. Dos Santos Fight Prediction:

Despite being a fun and dangerous fighter, Dos Santos would be 0-2 in the UFC if he hadn’t stolen a decision in his last fight, where he was taken down nine times and also finished behind in significant strikes. That exposed a massive wrestling deficiency that future opponents should be looking to expose. While Lima is a former kickboxing champion, he’s also a BJJ black belt and has decent grappling that he hasn’t really shown yet in the UFC. It will be interesting to see if Lima looks to mix in any wrestling here, and even if that isn’t his primary focus, it’s still there if he needs it. Dos Santos normally pushes a much higher pace than Lima, but Lima is a talented striker and could use Dos Santos’ aggression against him. Neither guy has ever been finished and they’ve both looked durable, so we’d be surprised to see this end early. Give us Lima by decision.

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Fight #7

Dulgarian vs. Marotte Fight Prediction:

Marotte was immediately finished in just 20 seconds in his short notice UFC debut and prior to that had been beating up cans on the New England regional scene. So he appears fully fraudulent by all accounts and you can understand why he would be one of the biggest underdogs of all time. The fact that Dulgarian completely gassed out in his last fight isn’t entirely reassuring at his negative one billion money line, but he should steamroll Marotte and finish him on the mat early, most likely with ground and pound in the first round.

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Fight #6

Rongzhu vs. Padilla Fight Prediction:

Rongzhu worked his way back into the organization through the Road to UFC tournament and is still only 24 years old despite having 30 pro fights to his name. It looks like he’s made some improvements since he was released from the UFC 2022, but he’s also been facing a lower level of competition so it’s always hard to know for sure. Padilla has less than a round of UFC action under his belt and is still very unproven, so it’s also hard to even fairly evaluate him. He has shown decent grappling and looks dangerous on the mat both with ground and pound and submissions, but Rongzhu has a solid 85% takedown defense and has shown the ability to return to his feet when he does get taken down. Padilla has given us no indication that he can win a striking battle at the UFC level and looks very vulnerable to leg kicks, so it makes some sense why Rongzhu is entering as the favorite. However, Rongzhu has also been submitted four times in his career, including by a one-dimensional striker in Ignacio Bahamondes. So his submission defense has been a little suspect and things could get dicey if this hits the mat, which is where Padilla will be looking to take it. That makes it understandable for anyone looking to take the dog shot on Padilla, but he looks to be at a sizable striking disadvantage and it feels like chasing to expect him to pull off his second straight big upset win. He’s a large underdog for a reason, his holes just haven’t been exposed yet in the UFC. We still feel more comfortable betting on this fight to end early than taking a side, and have no desire to lay the chalk on Rongzhu’s steep moneyline, but he will be the pick and we like his chances of getting Padilla out of there early, most likely with a late knockout.

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Fight #5

Peek vs. Ashmouz Fight Prediction:

This looks like a fun fight between a pair of aggressive and dangerous strikers, who will also each mix in wrestling. They’ve each struggled to defend takedowns, so it would make sense for both of them to try and take down the other, even if they’re more known for their striking. We’ve seen Peek look to wrestle more in his last couple of fights, which just bolsters our belief that he’ll continue to try and prove that he’s more than just a backyard brawler in this matchup. We’re not convinced that he actually is anything more than that, but he’ll have a good opportunity to prove us wrong here. Both guys are durable and neither of them have ever been finished. When you pair that with the wrestling potential, there’s a good chance this fight runs long. Peek is the busier striker, while we also favor his chances in the wrestling exchanges, so give us Peek by decision.

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Fight #4

Durden vs. Schnell Fight Prediction:

Schnell was supposed to fight Alessandro Costa, but he dropped out and Cody Durden stepped in late. Both of these two were finished in the second round in each of their last two fights, leaving them each desperate for a win. Schnell biggest weakness has been his chin, while Durden has been prone to being submitted and also got knocked out just seven weeks ago. Schnell has nine career submission wins, that have mostly come off his back, as he loves to throw up triangles, armbars, and guillotines. He’s also managed to go 5-5 as an underdog in the UFC, and he had a full camp to prepare for this fight while Durden stepped in on a few days’ notice. And since Durden isn’t known for his one-punch knockout power, Schnell’s chin will have a better shot at holding up. However, we expect Durden to find wrestling success, which will likely leave Schnell more reliant on landing a finish to pull off the upset. So a Durden decision is squarely in play, but give us Schnell by submission.

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Fight #3

Garcia vs. Nelson Fight Prediction:

Steve’s last six fights all ended by knockout in the first two rounds, with him winning five of those, including his last four. Meanwhile, Nelson had fought to four straight decisions, before surprisingly handing Bill Algeo a rare TKO loss in his last fight, albeit in a premature stoppage on the feet. So Nelson has decent power, but he’s kind of a bipolar fighter with questionable cardio who sometimes just wants to clinch along the fence and others will throw down in a brawl. That makes it hard to know what to expect from him, but Garcia will definitely be looking to make this a firefight. Both guys have been knocked out before in the UFC and Steve has made a career out of nearly getting finished and then bouncing back to land a knockout of his own. While we could see either guy ending up unconscious in this match, we think Steve is by far the more dangerous of the two and also has better defensive wrestling and ground and pound. We’ll take Steve by knockout in the first two rounds.

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Fight #2

Silva vs. Andrade Fight Prediction:

Andrade is moving back up to 125 lb here, after her last four fights were all at 115 lb (2-2). Both of these two are coming off close decision wins, but Andrade’s previous four fights all ended early. While 12 of Silva’s 17 pro wins also ended early, her kick-heavy style and constant movement can often result in lower volume decisions when she goes up against stiffer competition. Andrade has struggled at times against rangy strikers, although was able to narrowly win a split decision against that exact type of fighter in her last match, so clearly it’s not a hard and fast rule. With that said, we expect Andrade to march forward in this match, while Silva circles the outside of the Octagon and peppers her with kicks from the outside. Maybe Andrade can walk through the fire to land shots of her own, but there’s a high probability that Silva can outpoint her way to a decision win. However, the only time we can confidently bet against Andrade is when she’s facing high-level grapplers and while Silva does have good grappling, she’s been largely content with keeping fights standing in the UFC. This fight has the potential to go multiple different ways, as they’re both capable of knocking out or submitting the other. Andrade can also land an insane amount of volume when given the opportunity and will also look to wrestle at times. Silva has slick armbars, so Andrade will need to be careful if she tries to take her down. With so many ways the fight could potentially go, we don’t hate taking some shots on longer props, but our official prediction will be Silva by decision.

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Fight #1

Brady vs. Burns Fight Prediction:

This is an interesting one because they’re both such good grapplers that it could end up being more of a striking battle if we get a grappling stalemate. With that said, Burns only has a 50% takedown defense, although it rarely gets tested as most of his opponents aren’t looking to take him down because of how dangerous he is on the ground. Burns notably turned 38 years old recently, is just six months removed from a knockout loss, and has now dropped two straight, so it’s fair to say he’s on the decline. Brady’s biggest issue has been staying active and he’s only competed once in the last 23 months. We also saw him struggle on the feet when he couldn’t take Belal Muhammad down in his second most recent fight, where he suffered his only career loss in a R2 TKO. This will be Brady’s first five-round fight, so it also remains to be seen how his cardio will look beyond the third round, while Burns has been in three five-round fights in the past (1-2), with two of those going the full 25 minutes (1-1). So experience is on Burns’ side, but Brady is seven years younger and in his prime at 31 years old. If this fight took place a couple of years ago we wouldn’t think twice about betting Burns as an underdog, but the visuals were terrible at the end of his recent loss and he doesn’t look like the same fighter he used to be. And if you look at Burns’ recent fights against grapplers, he lost all of them. Sure those losses came against extremely tough competition, but all of his wins over the last several years were against opponents with poor grappling. So we can understand why Brady is the favorite and think Burns is the latest in a recent string of aging fighters passing the torch on to the next generation. We’ll say Brady wins a decision in a lower volume striking battle.

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