Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Enjoying The Sheet?
Buy Us a Beer!
Late Scratches: Gregor Gillespie vs. Brad Riddell is OFF!
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
JP Buys
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After turning pro in 2015 when he was just 19 years old, Buys started his career off 4-1, with three first round submission wins, a second round KO, and a first round submission loss. He was then invited onto DWCS in 2017 when he was just 21, but lost via TKO in the second round against Joby Sanchez, who went on to go 0-2 in the UFC before being released in 2018. The stoppage seemed really quick for what it’s worth, and Buys was never close to out. That remains the only KO/TKO loss of his career.
Following the loss, Buys bounced back with another first round submission win, followed by a DQ win in the third round of a 2018 match. He kept his winning streak alive with a R4 KO next, before moving from South Africa to the US and joining Fortis MMA in Dallas. He then took a fight in the LFA in 2019, which he won with a first round KO through ground and pound after quickly getting his opponent to the mat. That was enough for the UFC to give him another shot on DWCS this past November.
In that recent fight, Buys controlled his opponent, Jacob Silva, for the entire first round and nearly submitted him a couple of times before getting a quick stoppage in his favor this time, as Marc Goddard thought Silva was out when he was not. In fairness to Goddard, it was hard to see much as the two fighters were up against the cage with Buys locked into a Guillotine Choke, however it was clear afterwards that Silva was never out as Goddard had thought. It was a rough call for Silva, but it sort of evened the playing field for Buys after he was the victim of a quick stoppage in his first appearance on the show. Regardless of the outcome, Buys had completely controlled Silva for the entire round and was dominating the fight—Silva didn’t land a single significant strike.
Buys has fought at both 135 lb and 125 lb throughout his career, but his last three fights before his recent DWCS match were all at 135 lb, so it will be important to monitor him at weigh-ins. Both of his career losses notably were at 125 lb by KO. Update: He looked good at weigh-ins and made weight with no trouble.
With a wrestling background, the BJJ brown belt Buys clearly knows where his bread is buttered. He looks to get fights to the mat quickly and to keep his opponents controlled until he can finish them, which hasn’t been a problem for him as all 11 of his fights have ended early. Now making his UFC debut at 24 years old, on a five fight winning streak and on the same card as his wife—with JP fighting first—it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure. Interestingly, the literal power couple has decided to still corner each other even though they are both fighting, which will be interesting in terms of Cheyanne’s preparation for her main card fight, and for what type of shape JP will be in after his match.
Bruno Silva
4th UFC Fight (0-2, NC)Silva comes in with his back against the wall after losing his first three UFC fights. Luckily for him, the R3 submission loss in his debut was later overturned to a “No Contest” after his opponent, Taha, failed a drug test. So Silva’s official UFC record is still just 0-2. The UFC hasn’t done Silva any favors, pairing him up against three very tough opponents. After making his debut against 13-2 Khalid Taha, Silva then took on 17-3 David Dvorak, who came in on a 13 fight winning streak. Most recently Silva faced 12-1 Tagir Ulanbekov.
Silva’s first two opponents both failed to get him to the mat on just a single attempt each, but Tagir Ulanbekov was able to take him down five times on 11 attempts. However, not before SIlva landed numerous heavy leg kicks. Ulanbekov looked to be in trouble early on based on the number of leg strikes he was absorbing from Silva, but adjusted well as the fight went on and was able to squeak out a decision. The final numbers were extremely close, with Silva actually finishing ahead on significant strikes 47-46 and landing four takedowns to Ulanbekov’s five. Ulanbekov did lead in total strikes landed 69-59 and control time 3:47-2:21, but the fight was much closer than the odds suggested going in, as Ulanbekov closed as a massive -485 favorite.
Silva has attempted at least eight takedowns in each of his three UFC fights, but has struggled with his accuracy going 2 for 11, 3 for 11 and 4 for 8 in the three matches. Now going against a pure wrestler in Buys, it will be interesting to see how the grappling plays out.
Just like Buys, Silva has also fought at both 135 lb and 125 lb throughout his career. He made his UFC debut at 135 lb, but dropped back down to 125 lb for his last two fights. Prior to joining the UFC, Silva fought Casey Kenney to a draw in the LFA in 2017, which is curiously Silva’s second draw in 17 pro fights.
Silva’s been knocked out once in his career, which was a 2016 seven second R1 finish. He’s only officially been submitted once, which came in 2011 by R3 Armbar, but he was unofficially submitted a second time in his UFC debut which was later overturned to a “No Contest.” On the other side of his record, six of his 10 wins have come early with three KOs and three submissions. However, he has just one win by KO since 2013 (a 2017 R1 KO) and no submission wins since 2014. Five of his last eight fights have ended in decisions.
Silva has solid wrestling and trains at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo. This will be a solid measuring stick for how successful Buys’ wrestling heavy approach can be in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Buys will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is the type of fight that’s tough to predict going in, but 30 seconds after it starts we may be saying how obvious of a choice it was. It essentially comes down to how Silva’s grappling holds up against the wrestling of Buys. If Silva can nullify Buys’ wrestling, then he should have the advantage on the feet. We don’t see Silva out grappling Buys, it will just be whether or not Buys can get Silva down and keep him there. Silva has been a tough guy to pin down, averaging just 11% Control Time Against and limiting a smothering grappler in Ulanbekov to 3 minutes and 47 seconds of control time in their recent 15 minute match. This is definitely not a great matchup for Buys to easily showcase the dominating wrestling that got him to the UFC, but that’s not to say it can’t happen. We see this fight going one of two ways. Either Buys will be able to control Silva on the ground and work his way to a finish or else Silva will prove to be too slippery and pick him apart on the feet.
All five of Buys’ career submission wins have come in the first round and that line can be had at +1000, which seems like decent value. If you think Silva wins, then your best bet is going with his moneyline at +130, but his KO line at +650 is also interesting.
DFS Implications:
Buys’ recent DWCS performance would have been good for 112 DraftKings points and 129 points on FanDuel. However, in a longer fight he would generally score better on DraftKings through control time and ground strikes. This looks like a tougher matchup for a dominating wrestling performance, but that doesn’t mean it can't happen. The fact that Tagir Ulanbekov struggled with Silva after coming in as a -485 favorite is definitely a reason for concern here, and Silva looks to be Buys’ toughest opponent to date. However, Buys’ upside can’t be ignored and if he is able to control Silva the way he has past opponents, it’s hard to see him not ending up in winning lineups at his $8,300/$17 price tag. The odds suggest his chances of winning are 57%, while his chances for a finish are 24%.
Silva has yet to sniff a decent DFS score, with DraftKings totals of 45, 39 and 37 in his three UFC losses. However, six of his 10 career wins have come early, and betting against an opponent making their UFC debut off of the Contender Series is always an intriguing proposition. Silva is less likely than normal to want to get this fight to the ground so he’ll be even more reliant on striking and more so landing a knockout to score well. He lacks the striking volume to score well in a decision. His ITD odds imply he has a 20% chance of getting the finish.
Fight #10
Montel Jackson
6th UFC Fight (3-2)With a wrestling background, Jackson had originally set his sights on competing in the Olympics. However, in 2013 the International Olympic Committee threw a wrench in his plans when they voted to remove wrestling from the Olympics, effective in 2020. Jackson soon switched his sights to MMA, where he saw an actual future. He competed in nine amateur fights from 2014 to 2016, where he went 8-1, before turning pro.
After making his pro debut in 2017, Jackson started his career off 5-0, with four KOs including three in R1, before getting a shot on DWCS just a year after his pro debut. He landed another knockout in that match, this time in the third round, which was enough to get him a shot in the UFC.
The UFC threw Jackson straight into the fire, giving him Ricky Simon in his 2018 debut with the organization. Simon attempted a ridiculous 20 takedowns, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Jackson. While Jackson was able to defend 13 of those, Simon still landed seven in a grappling heavy affair. Jackson actually outlanded Simon 42-25 in significant strikes and landed two takedowns of his own, but Simon’s large amount of control was still enough to win him a unanimous decision.
Jackson bounced back from the loss with the first and only submission win of his career, in a 2018 match against Brian Kelleher where he landed a Brabo Choke less than two minutes into the fight. He notably missed weight for that bout, coming in one pound over the limit. So that will be something to keep an eye on, although it hasn’t been an issue in his last three fights. Update: Jackson made weight with no issues.
Since that submission win, Jackson has fought to three straight decisions, winning the first two before dropping the last one. The wins notably came against unimpressive opponents in Andre Soukhamthath (2-5 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), and Felipe Dias Colares (1-2 in the UFC). He then faced a tough Brett Johns (5-2 in the UFC) in his recent loss.
Jackson notably fought his first pro fight at 145 lb, and actually moved up to 155 lb for his second pro match. However, he then moved all the way down to 135 lb for his third pro bout, where he’s stayed ever since. At 5’10” with a 75” reach and massive hands, he’s definitely big for the division. He offers exceptional wrist control, pinning opponents’ arms back like someone picking on their little brother.
His patient fighting style, long reach and strong wrestling skills have kept the striking volume in check for all of his UFC fights. None of his UFC opponents have landed more than 30 significant strikes on him, and the significant striking totals in his last three matches have been 26-11, 75-7 and 64-30, all in favor of Jackson. Even in his two losses, he’s outlanded all of his opponents, going back to his DWCS fight. We’ve yet to see him in a two-sided striking battle, which is what his next opponent will be hoping for.
Jackson’s two UFC losses have come against high-level grapplers in RIcky Simon, who went 7 for 20 on takedowns, and Brett Johns who went 8 for 19 on takedowns. So for the meaningless stat crowd, Jackson is undefeated when his opponents attempt 18 or fewer takedowns.
Jesse Strader
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a 19 month layoff and now making his short notice UFC debut, this fight was booked just a week and a half before the event. However, Strader said he stayed training throughout 2020, and went through a couple fight camps only to have fights canceled. He said he was supposed to fight in Mexico City in March 2020 but it got canceled a few days before the event due to COVID. Then he was supposed to fight in September in Miami, but that also got canceled due to COVID.
Strader throws heavy combinations of body shots, which he explained the origins of in a recent interview where he discussed how he goes to a striking-heavy boxing gym, where body shots are heavily emphasized.
Strader won his first three pro fights, with a pair of KOs in the first two rounds followed by a high-volume brawl that he won convincingly in a decision. Then, in 2018 he suffered his only career loss against Marcelo Rojo, who made his UFC debut last week, but got his face broken by Charles Jourdain. Strader knocked Rojo down in the first round of their match and was close to finishing the fight, but Rojo recovered and quickly turned the tables with a series of heavy knees from the Thai clinch. Rojo was able to finish Strader just moments later with a late R1 TKO stoppage.
Strader bounced back with another pair of knockouts in the first two rounds, first taking out the king of pop and then most recently starching Isaiah Batin-Gonzalez with a combination of four digging body shots capped with a chin-checking left hook. No follow up on the ground was necessary as Batin-Gonzalez’s soul was clearly leaving his body.
Strader has mixed in takedowns as needed, but is really more of a striker and doesn’t appear to be any sort of a threat on the ground. He’s never submitted anyone as a pro, but did have one win by Rear-Naked Choke as an amateur.
UPDATE: Strader was the only fighter to miss weight, coming in 1.5 lb over the limit. Other than that he looked fine.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 2” height advantage and a massive 7” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters turned pro in 2017, although Jackson has five more fights of experience, all in the UFC. Jackson has the ability to win this fight on the feet or the mat, while Strader’s only hope is to win a brawl. Jackson has never been finished in his career, and it’s hard to see him losing a decision here once you factor in his wrestling ability. So Strader’s only hope will be to knock Jackson out, which the odds imply he has just an 8% chance of achieving. We agree with the odds and think Jackson wins this fight, it’s just a matter of how. So far in the UFC he’s won a pair of decisions and landed one submission. Prior to joining the UFC five of his six wins were by KO. His patient style always keeps a decision in play, but he does have the striking and grappling ability to end this one early with either a KO or submission. For what it’s worth, Strader’s lone career loss came by R1 KO, but he’s only had six pro fights. We do expect Strader to push the pace, which should increase the chances this ends early, but it’s really hard to pinpoint Jackson’s method of victory. Given the massive advantage Jackson should have on the ground it would make sense for him to take Strader down quickly and try to end the fight with either ground and pound or a submission.
Obviously you don’t want to bet a -700 favorite, and no great value stands out in any of his lines. So there are no good bets to discuss here unless you want to take a shot at Jackson wins by R1 Submission at +1100 or his general R1 win line at +200. Or if you think Strader can pull the miraculous upset and land a R1 KO that line can be had at +2500 or anytime KO at +1200.
DFS Implications:
Jackson has put up DraftKings scores of 148, 109 and 96 in his three UFC wins, while scoring 164, 76 and 114 points on FanDuel. It’s notable that it was his two decisions where he put up his best DraftKings scores, while his R1 submission win scored just 96 DraftKings points. His one explosion performance came in a decision win on the back of 11 takedowns, 7 takedowns defended, one knockdown, nearly 11 minutes of control time and a 75-7 lead in significant strikes. It’s also important to pay attention to the fact that his other decision scored decently on DraftKings with 109 points, but just 76 points on FanDuel. His DraftKings total was propped up by nearly eight minutes of control time and 160 insignificant strikes, which scores nothing on FanDuel. So his wrestling style is clearly much safer on DraftKings, while he’s reliant on huge takedown numbers or finishes on FanDuel. Jackson’s ITD line leads the slate at -185 (58%).
Strader is a high-volume striker and the cheapest fighter on the slate. While this looks like an incredibly tough matchup for him, his moneyline of +500 still implies he has a 16% chance to win this fight, while his ITD of +1050, implies an 8% chance he gets it done early. Based on his price and striking volume, if he wins, he will almost certainly end up in the optimal lineup and make for a great tournament leverage play. Four of his five career wins have come by knockout, while the fifth was a high volume decision. His one loss was also a R1 knockout. This looks like a great fight to have heavy exposure to.
Fight #9
Roman Dolidze
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Giles had been scheduled to face Dricus Du Plessis, but Du Plessis withdrew and Dolidze stepped in on a week and a half’s notice.
After fighting his entire career at Light Heavyweight (205 lb), Dolidze now drops down to Middleweight (185 lb) for the first time. He comes in with a perfect 8-0 record as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC. His first seven career fights all ended early, including five in the first round, but he’s now coming off his first fight to end in a decision. Only one of his last four fights have ended in R1, which was in his 2020 UFC debut.
Dolidze has a background in grappling, and his first three pro MMA wins all came by R1 submission, with two Heel Hooks and one Rear-Naked Choke. He tried to end his last fight with multiple Heel Hook attempts, but was unsuccessful. He is a patient striker and doesn’t throw much volume, leaving him reliant on grappling and finishes to win fights.
Prior to his July 2020 UFC debut, he hadn’t fought since December 2018 after having multiple fights canceled—two due to injury and one from COVID.
Trevin Giles
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Giles is coming off a third round KO of Bevon Lewis back in November. In a low-volume match, Giles came out ahead in significant strikes just 38-26, but did notably land two knockdowns and a takedown before the finish.
Prior to that, he had been set to face Kevin Holland back in August, but infamously fainted backstage just before walking out for the fight. He was taken to the hospital immediately and in a past interview he said that his heart briefly stopped multiple times while he was under observation. Crazily, the UFC was still trying to get him to fight Holland the following week, but Giles declined and Holland was instead paired up against Buckley.
The last time Giles fought was in a decision win over James Krause this past February. Krause took the fight on one day’s notice and fought up a weight class, after showing up at the event to corner Youssef Zalal. Krause actually came close to submitting Giles in the first round, but got beat up as the fight went on by the much larger man in Giles.
Both of Giles’ career losses have notably come by third round Guillotine Choke submission in the third round of consecutive 2019 fights, against Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert.
Going into those two losses Giles had a perfect 11-0 pro record and was 2-0 in the UFC. Impressively, 10 of those 11 wins came early with five KOs and five submissions. Four of those came in R1, but those were also all in his first six fights against opponents who entered with records of: 0-1, 4-8, 2-2, and 4-4.
With his last five fights all making it to the third round, Giles hasn’t topped 92 DraftKings points since his massive 134 point performance in his 2017 UFC debut. While Giles was five for five on takedowns in his debut, he’s gone just two for three in his five fights since.
Giles made his UFC debut at 205 lb but has since dropped back down to 185 lb, where he had previously been fighting. Following his second UFC win in 2017, Giles took a year and a half off from the UFC as he went through the police academy to become a member of the Houston P.D. He lost his first two fights back in 2019 following the layoff.
Giles notably has only been taken down twice on 15 attempts in his last four fights and holds a legit 80% takedown defense. His last nine fights have all made it out of the first round, and seven of his last eight have all seen the third round.
Fight Prediction:
Dolidze will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
It will be interesting to see how Dolidze fairs down at 185 lb, as we’ve never seen him compete there before. He showed he has solid power at 205 lb, but has generally relied more on power than technical ability in the striking department. Giles looks to be the more refined striker of the two, so Dolidze will likely be looking to take this fight to the ground. The only problem with that is Giles has an 80% takedown defense. Because of that, we expect a low-volume tactical fight and think a Giles decision win is actually the most likely outcome with a late round KO also possible.
There’s a decent chance this fight busts and ends in a decision, so the “Fight Goes the Distance” line at +130 is fine, but we wish it was slightly wider. If it does end early, you might consider “Dolidze Wins by Submission” at +430, “Dolidze Wins by R1 Submission” at +1000, “Dolidze Wins by R3 Submission” at +2200, and “Giles Wins by R3 KO” at +2300.
DFS Implications:
This is an interesting matchup, but feels like it has high bust potential. Both guys are low volume strikers and while each has a history of landing finishes, neither has ever been knocked out. Giles also owns an 80% takedown defense that should help him to avoid any potential submission threats. If this plays out how we expect, then neither guy will end up scoring well. However, with their frustratingly low mid-tier prices the bust threshold is certainly lower. That makes this a trickier spot to navigate. Dolidze has been a consistent DraftKings scorer with totals of 108 and 92 in his two wins, but this is a definitely a tougher matchup for him. His solid scoring and cheap price tag will also drive up his ownership, making this a hold-your-breath spot if you fade him. His ITD line checks in at +140 (39%), while his R1 win line is +375 (15%). Both of those seem high to us, making him a guy we’re looking to be under the field on.
Giles has been an erratic DFS scorer with DraftKings totals of 124, 85, 73 and 92 in his four UFC wins. Five of his six UFC wins have come early, but four of those ended in the third round,while his 2017 debut ended in R2. No one has ever landed more than 44 significant strikes on him and he’s failed to ever eclipse 71 himself. Also, neither him nor his opponents in his last four fights have landed more and a single takedown in a match, further decreasing the potential scoring ceiling in this fight. Interestingly FanDuel decided to price both of these fighters at $16. Whenever that’s happened in the past we’ve seen the underdog carry significantly lower ownership. Assuming the line doesn’t flip, which it has moved in Giles’ favor, that makes him an interestingly leverage play on FanDuel, where he should also boost his score with takedowns defended. Giles’ ITD line is +375 (20%), while his R1 win line is just +800 (8%).
Fight #8
Grant Dawson
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Dawson began his pro career fighting at 155 lb, but moved down to 145 lb in 2016—one fight before going onto DWCS in 2017. He’s stayed at 145 lb for his six fights since, although the last one was switched to a 150 lb Catchweight. He’ll now be moving back up to 155 lb for the first time in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see if he can still be as dominant of a wrestler up a weight class.
A BJJ brown belt, Dawson comes into this fight on a seven fight winning streak and 4-0 in the UFC with a pair of decision wins and a pair of second round submissions. He has an overall 16-1 pro record, with his lone career loss coming in a 2016 R1 KO at 155 lb. That was in his second most recent fight at that weight. Of Dawson’s 16 career wins, 14 have come early, with three KOs and 11 submissions. His last four finishes have all come by submission, with the last three coming in the second round. No one in the UFC has shut down the wrestling of Dawson so far, so it will be interesting to see if Santos can be the first.
Leonardo Santos
9th UFC Fight (7-0-1)Now 41 years old, Santos is 14 years older than Dawson, but has just four more pro fights. Part of that is due to the fact that Santos took nearly three years off from October 2016 until June 2019 as he battled injuries. Upon his return, Santos scoffed at the concept of ring rust and landed a first round knockout in just 137 seconds.
Then most recently, Santos took on an undefeated Russian wrestler in Roman Bogatov, who was making his UFC debut. As he always does, Santos did a great job of stuffing takedowns, limiting Bogatov to just one successful takedown on 11 attempts, which came very late in the fight. Santos nearly finished the fight with strikes in the second round but Bogatov demonstrated his toughness and survived numerous clean shots. Santos actually punched himself out he landed so many heavy shots. When you combine that with the first round eye poke, two third round knees to the cup, and a blatantly illegal knee to the head, it’s somewhat understandable why Santos looked gassed late in the fight. After hitting the trifecta of illegal strikes Bogatov was deducted two points late in the third round on his way to a unanimous 29-26 decision loss. He was subsequently released by the UFC following his downright dirty debut.
Prior to the painful decision victory, Santos returned from a three year absence to knock out Steven Ray with a walkoff right hand less than three minutes into the fight. Santos also notably knocked out Kevin Lee in the first round back in 2015, two fights before that.
Santos came into the UFC in 2013 and landed a R2 submission win in his debut. He then fought to a draw against Norman Parke, followed by a decision win in 2014. Then Santos submitted Anthony Rocco Martin in the second round before knocking out Kevin Lee.
Santos is a 4th degree black belt in BJJ and a former 7-time Jiu-Jitsu world champion. He’s never landed more than 66 significant strikes in a match (last fight) and he’s also never absorbed more than 50 significant strikes (also last fight). Impressively, he’s only been taken down 3 times on 26 attempts across his 8 UFC fights and only once in his last seven fights. He notably defended 10 of 11 takedown attempts in that last match. Surprisingly, he has just six takedowns of his own in eight UFC fights.
Santos has been on an impressive run going 12-0-1 in his last 13 fights, and hasn’t lost a fight since a 2009 split decision. He’s only been finished once in his career, which came via R1 KO all the way back in 2006, in his third pro fight. He’s gone 17-1-1 in his last 19 matches. While four of his last seven fights have ended in decisions, 12 of his 18 career wins have come early, with three KOs and nine submissions. 11 of those finishes came in the first round. At the same time, the only time he's ever been finished himself was that 2006 R1 KO.
Fight Prediction:
Santos will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This should be Dawson’s toughest test to date and it will be interesting to see how his wrestling fairs up a weight class and against a world class Jiu-Jitsu champion. Dawson’s first four UFC opponents came in with UFC records of 1-2, 2-0, 0-0, and 2-1, so no one with near the experience of Santos. Dawson has so far relied on overpowering opponents on the mat, and if he’s unable to do that here, he’ll be in trouble. When Santos started winning Jiu-Jitsu world championships in 2002, Dawson was just eight years old. Dawson will need to physically overpower Santos to win this fight. If Santos’ experience and 88% takedown defense can negate the dominant wrestling of Dawson, then we think he can win this fight and potentially land a knockout. However, Santos is 41 years old and looked gassed in the second half of his last fight, which are both concerning. Santos has a better shot to end this fight early with a knockout, but Dawson will wear on him as the fight goes on and should win if he can make it past the midway mark.
Dawson’s last three submission wins have all come in the second round, as he tends to wear on his opponents before “making them quit.” Therefore “Dawson Wins by R2 Submission” at +2600 looks like decent value, just keep in mind Santos has never been submitted and he’s been practicing Jiu-Jitsi since long before Dawson was even swimming upstream. On the other side of things, all three ofSantos’ career KOs came in the first round—as did Dawson’s lone career loss—so we also really like “Santos Wins by R1 KO” at +1600 or Santos ITD at +390. “Dawson Wins by Decision” at +125 is the other line worth considering. Keep in mind, neither one of these guys has ever landed a finish beyond the second round.
DFS Implications:
Dawson has been a consistent DFS scorer with DraftKings totals of 93, 101, 105, and 107 in his four UFC wins. Based on his wrestling heavy style, he generally can still score well in decisions on DraftKings but requires a finish on FanDuel to put up a useful score. This sets up as his toughest matchup to date as he moves up a weight class and goes against a BJJ world champion with an 88% takedown defense. Normally Dawson is as safe as it gets for DFS, but this is a risky spot for him. If he struggles to get this fight to the ground he lacks the striking volume to score well in a decision. His ITD line checks in at +260, implying a 25% chance he gets the finish, which is well below his projected ownership. Fading him looks like a solid leverage opportunity, but at his affordable price tag it’s still a risky proposition.
This is no easy spot for Santos either. He’ll have to devote a large portion of his attention simply to defending takedowns, which will help his FanDuel scoring, but it’s hard to see him looking for many takedowns of his own. He also lacks the striking volume to score well in a decision so he needs a finish here to and score well. His ITD implies just a 17% chance he gets one, while his R1 chances are well below that at just 7%. We still like him as an underdog play, just don’t get too carried away with your exposure.
Fight #7
Macy Chiasson
6th UFC Fight (4-1)After four of her first five pro fights ended early, Chiasson’s last two matches have both gone to the judges. She won her last decision, but suffered her first career loss in the one prior.
Chiasson got her shot in the UFC very early in her pro career, coming up through The Ultimate Fighter in 2018, after fighting just twice as a pro before that. The UFC seems more willing to take a chance early in the careers of freakishly physically gifted fighters, and Chiasson fits the bill at 5’11”, where she towers over the rest of the 135 lb division. She began her pro career at 145 lb, but as many fighters do, she moved down to 135 lb after her first UFC fight.
One point of note, in her five UFC fights she’s really struggled to get her opponents to the mat and has a putrid 16% takedown success rate. She went 0 for 6 in her UFC debut, but then didn’t attempt a takedown in her next two fights. Then she went 0 for 4 in her fourth UFC fight, before going 3 for 8 in her last match. The fact that she went 0 for 10 in her first four fights, but 3 for 8 in her last match, could indicate that her technique is approving, especially considering that she only has seven pro fights to her name. However, with such a small sample size, it’s hard to make a definitive determination just yet.
Chiasson’s first two early wins came by submission in her first and third pro fights, but her most recent two finishes were both by KO. Now she gets a more experienced opponent who’s never been finished early as a pro. One thing to look at in this matchup is that Chiasson uses her length well and throws dangerous knees out of the clinch. Reneau really struggled with the clinch of Pennington in her last match.
Marion Reneau
12th UFC Fight (5-5-1)Coming off three straight unanimous decision losses, the 43-year-old BJJ black belt/High School Gym teacher Reneau hasn’t won a fight in nearly three years. Her last four wins, however, did all come early.
She last tasted victory with a February 2018 R2 Triangle Choke Submission win over Sara McMann, who has now lost three of her last four fights. Before that, in 2017 she landed a R3 KO against Talita Bernardo, who’s also lost three of her last four fights. Prior to knocking out Bernardo, Reneau fought Bethe Correia to a draw earlier in 2017. Staying on brand, Correia has also lost three of her last four fights. Four months prior to that draw, Reneau knocked out Milana Dudieva, who’s now lost five of her last six fights and is no longer in the UFC. Reneau lost a pair of decisions prior to knocking out Dudieva, but impressively submitted Jessica Andrade with a 2015 R1 Triangle Choke in her second UFC fight. Reneau’s 2015 UFC debut ended with her only career decision win as eight of her nine pro wins have come early (5 KOs & 3 Submissions).
Interestingly, all six of her pro losses have ended in decisions. So her record with the judges is 1-6-1. In Reneau’s last seven fights, Reneau has been taken down 17 times, while landing just 4 takedowns of her own. She notably pulled guard a couple times against Cat Zingano, but was unable to do anything off her back.
UPDATE: Reneau initially weighed in a half pound over, but was able to make weight with the towel.
Fight Prediction:
Chiasson will have a 5” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. She’s also 14 years younger than the 43-year-old Reneau.
Both of these women have shown the ability to finish opponents, but neither has ever been finished themselves. Given the large height and reach discrepancies in this match, we think Reneau could look to get this fight to the ground, where the BJJ black belt has won three fights by submission—two by Triangle Chokes and one by Armbar. Trying to land a submission off her back could be her best shot, so don’t be shocked if she looks to pull guard. With that said, as long as Chiasson can avoid getting submitted, we like her to win a decision here and control Reneau for the extended periods of time in this match.
With neither of these women ever losing early, we think the decision line at -170 is fine. However, given how poorly Reneau has fared with the judes, Chiasson “Wins by Decision'' at +130 is our preferred play here. Three of Reneau’s five career KOs have come in the third round, so if you like her to win this fight you could consider “Reneau WIns by R3 KO” at +4300. Seems pretty thin though.
DFS Implications:
Chiasson has been a DFS stud in her four UFC wins with DraftKings scores of 102, 111, 111 and 108. While her first three scores resulted from early finishes, her 108 point performance came in her recent decision. She amassed nine and half minutes of control time and landed 154 total strikes (86 significant) to go along with three takedowns. She’s a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system as only 57% of her strikes in the UFC have been ruled as significant and she generally accumulates massive amounts of control time. With that said, her FanDuel scores in her four UFC wins have been 117, 127, 107 and 93. The 93 point performance came in her recent decision, demonstrating that she’s more reliant on an early finish to top the century mark on FanDuel.
With that in mind, this doesn’t look like a favorable matchup for Chiasson to finish things inside the distance, but it does set up for her to accumulate a solid amount of control time. Chiasson has impressively controlled her opponents for 51% of her total UFC Octagon time, while Reneau has been controlled 42% of the time in her last four fights. Chiasson checks in as a -225 favorite, with an implied 66% chance to win this fight. She’s a better play on DraftKings, where she has shown she can still score well in a decision, compared to FanDuel, where she’s more dependent on landing an early finish to put up a big number. Her ITD line is set at +280, which implies she has a 22% chance to finish things early.
Reneau has notched only five takedowns in 11 UFC fights and has only landed above 58 significant strikes once (75) in her last 10 fights. On the other side of things, she has never been finished early in her career, with all six of her losses ending in decisions. Chiasson’s anemic takedown accuracy keeps Reneau in the conversation as a value play on FanDuel, but the fact that Reneau seems to invite takedowns—even pulling guard at times—makes that angle a little less compelling. You could point to Reneau’s 89% finishing rate in wins as a source for optimism, but her last four early wins still only scored 82, 91, 82 and 93 DraftKings points. It’s possible that at her price that would still be enough, but it’s far from a sure thing. Reneau is simply a low-owned, low-upside contrarian tournament play that you want minimal exposure to.
Fight #6
Tai Tuivasa
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Tuivasa was originally scheduled to face Don'tale Mayes, but Mayes dropped out in the middle of the week and Hunsucker stepped in on three days notice, similarly to how he got on DWCS.
Coming off his first win since June 2018, Tuivasa sent Stefan Struve off into the sunset handing him his fifth loss in his last six fights. Tuivasa has also been struggling, and was coming off a three fight skid after starting off 3-0 in the UFC and 9-0 as a pro. After just turning 28 this past Tuesday, Tuivasa is still relatively young in his career. Two of his three losses have come early, both in the second round, while the third went to the judges.
After joining the UFC in 2017, he won his first two fights with a pair of R1 KOs. In his debut, Tuivasa knocked out Rashad Coulter, who came in 0-1 in the UFC and finished 1-3 before getting released in 2018. Coulter has now lost four of his last five fights—all by KO in the first two rounds. Tuivasa then landed another first round finish, this time against Cyril Asker, who went 2-3 in the UFC before getting released in 2018. All three of his UFC losses were by R1 KO. Tuivasa then won a close, low-volume decision against Arlovski, before getting knocked out in R2 by Junior dos Santos of a 2018 main event. He then lost a decision to tankey Blagoy Ivanov, before getting manhandled by Sergey Spivak on the ground.
Nine of his ten career wins have come by R1 KO. However, his first four wins were against opponents who had never fought professionally before so his record is definitely padded.
Tuivasa has no ground game and it showed in his fight against Sergey Spivak. He was once asked what his favorite grappling move is and responded, “Get up.” To his credit, he is decent at getting up. He has no interest in going to the ground after knocking an opponent down and would much prefer to let them also get up as well.
Harry Hunsucker
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Hunksucker made a short notice appearance on DWCS back in November, but got knocked out by Jared Vanderaa midway through the first round, Hunsucker took the fight on just four days notice and had just fought less than three weeks earlier (similar to this week’s situation). Hunsucker was the aggressor in that match early on and landed some decent shots, but once Vanderaa got him to the ground he was quickly able to finish him with ground and pound as Hunsucker lay face down on the mat.
After losing on DWCS, Hunsucker took on a 300 lb opponent in a fight just a few weeks ago. Hunsucker knocked out the big fella in just 45 seconds while taking no damage whatsoever.
Prior to those two fights, Hunsucker landed back to back R1 submission wins on the Kentucky regional scene, against opponents who entered with records of 15-17 and 9-14. Here are the records of the other opponents Hunsucker has faced: 0-2 (L), 1-9, 0-0 (L), 0-0, 2-5, 1-0. Not too good.
Surprisingly for a man of his stature, four of Hunsucker’s finishes have come by submission and he’s actually a third degree black belt in Taekwondo and a BJJ brown belt. Only three of his seven career wins have been by KO. All three of his pro losses have also come by KO and he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than four minutes.
Hunsucker actually lost a fight to Tuivasa’s original opponent, Don’Tale Mayes, in 2016 which was Mayes’ pro debut. Hunsucker has since won six of his last seven fights after starting his pro career 1-2.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’2” with a 75” reach.
Hunsucker’s last loss came against Jared Vanderaa, while Tuivasa’s last loss came against Sergey Spivak, who absolutely murdered Jared Vanderaa in their recent fight. Hunsucker also lost to another questionable UFC talent in Don’Tale Mayes, while Tuivasa’s losses have at least come against decent Heavyweights in the division. WIth that said, Tuivasa is no great talent and if this fight somehow ends up on the ground we’ve seen how little he offers down there. In fairness that was against Sergey Spivak, but Hunsucker does have multiple submission wins, albeit against guys that looked like they went straight from the bar to the Octagon.
Tuivasa has proven himself to be dangerous on the feet, with 9 of his 10 victories coming by R1 KO, and he’s been at his best against lower level opponents. So this seemingly sets up perfect for him to land another first round knockout. We’ve seen how easily Hunsucker gives up once he’s in trouble with multiple TKOs from “Submission to Punches” on his record, so it’s hard to see this fight making it out of the first round. We’ll take Tuivasa wins by R1 KO here.
DFS Implications:
Tuivasa has proven himself to be a R1 or bust play in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 118, 106 and 111 in his three R1 KOs, but just 65 (W) and 31 (L) in his two bouts to go the distance. Priced at $8,900 and with zero takedowns to his name, it’s hard to imagine him scoring well later in fights barring a miraculous multi-knockdown performance. His ITD checks in at a ridiculous -270 (62%). One thing to keep in mind here is that Tuivasa was priced in DFS for when he was a -250 favorite against Mayes, but now he comes in as a -400 favorite against Hunsucker. So there is some value in his price, as he would be over 9k on DraftKings if pricing were released today.
With all 10 of Hunsucker’s fights ending in the first round, there’s a great chance the winner of this match ends up in the optimal. Between the two of them 19 of their combined 24 pro fights have ended in R1. Hunsucker’s yet to give us any indication that he can win at the UFC level, but we all know it just takes one punch at Heavyweight to break a slate. His ITD line comes in at +470 (15%). Tuivasa has only been knocked out once in his career, which came in a main event against a less washed up version of Junior dos Santos.
Fight #5
Max Griffin
11th UFC Fight (4-6)Griffin is coming off a gruesome third round stoppage against Ramiz Brahimaj, where Brahimaj’s ear was left dangling from the side of his head. Prior to the freak injury, the fight looked destined to end in a decision, which would be par for the course with Griffin, as his previous seven matches all ended with the judges.
Rarely getting an easy fight, Griffin made his 2016 UFC debut against Colby Covington and got knocked out in the third round. That remains the only time Griffin has even been finished in his career. He bounced back from the loss with a 54 second R1 KO victory, which is his only early win in the UFC to date. The KO came against Erick Montano, who entered the fight 1-1 in the UFC, was coming off a submission loss, and was released from the UFC afterwards.
Following the 2016 KO win, Griffin fought to seven straight decisions, only winning two of them. He started that streak with a loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, but bounced back with a win over Mike Perry. He then lost a decision to Curtis Millender, who came in on a seven fight winning streak with KOs in four of his last five. Griffin followed that up with a split decision loss in 2019, this time to Thiago Alves, who has lost four of his last five fights with just the one win over Griffin. Griffin then won a decision against Zelim Imadaev, who was making his UFC debut, but is now 0-3 with the organization. Griffin then lost a unanimous decision to Alex Morono and a split decision to Alex Oliveira before his recent zombie stoppage victory. For what it’s worth, in his 10 UFC fights, Griffin has never won two fights in a row.
Griffin averages the 10th most significant strikes landed on the slate at 4.08/min., while Kenan averages the 5th most absorbed at 4.2/min. Griffin also averages the 9th most takedowns landed and Kenan has a below average 45% takedown defense. None of those numbers will get people overly excited on their own, but in combination they create the potential for a decent all around performance for Griffin.
The fact that Griffin has lost four of his last six fights is obviously concerning, but with two of those coming by split decision and one a clear robbery, it seems like he should have some positive variance headed his way.
Song Kenan
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Kenan exploded onto the UFC scene in 2017 with a 15 second R1 KO win followed up by another knockout victory in the second round. For context, the first win came against Bobby Nash, who came into the fight 0-2 in the UFC after getting knocked out in the second round twice. He was released from the UFC following his third straight KO loss. The second win was against Hector Aldana, who was making his UFC debut after nearly a three year layoff from fighting and is now 0-3 in the UFC with two KO losses and hasn’t fought since 2019.
Following the pair of knockouts, Kenan lost a decision to Alex Morono in 2018. He bounced back with a decision win over Derrick Krantz, who entered the fight 0-1 in the UFC and now hasn’t fought since 2019 after his second UFC loss. Both fighters were so exhausted by the third round, the strikes being thrown were comically pathetic.
In his most recent match, Kenan took on Callan Potter, who came in 1-1 in the UFC. Kenan knocked out Potter 140 seconds into the match, notching his first UFC victory over an opponent who had previously won a UFC fight.
So in summary, three of his four UFC wins have come by KO (2 in R1 & 1 in R2). His other two UFC fights ended in low-volume decisions, with him winning the most recent one. He has never attempted a takedown in five UFC matches, but he has been taken down six times on 11 attempts by his opponents. This will be Kenan’s first fight in the US, after fighting three times in his home country of China (2-1, KO win & 2 Decisions), once in Singapore (KO win) and once in New Zealand (KO win).
Kenan is now 16-5 as a pro, with 14 of his wins coming early, including 8 KOs and six submissions. However, five of his six submission wins came in his first seven pro fights, before he ever landed his first knockout. He now only has one submission win in his last 14 fights and really seems like a KO or bust fighter. Six of his eight career KOs have come in the first round, with the other two coming in the second.
His only two career decision wins were in 2014 and 2019. His two career KO losses came against Israel Adesanya in R1 of a 2015 match and Brad Riddell in R2 of a 2017 fight. His other three pro losses all ended in decisions.
Kenan is a solid striker, but lacks any sort of grappling game, making him a one-dimensional fighter who relies on knockouts to win fights.
Fight Prediction:
Kenan will have a 1” height advantage but Griffin will have a 5” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters lost unanimous decisions to Alex Morono. While Morono outlanded Kenan 98-61 in significant strikes, things were much closer against Griffin, where Morono squeaked out the lead 81-75. Griffin was also able to take Morono down four times on five attempts. Morono did nearly finish Griffin at the end of the first round, but Griffin showed just how tough he is taking everything Morono could throw at him and still surviving. While Kenan always has a chance to finish fights based on his powerful striking ability, we like Griffin to win a decision here.
“Griffin Wins by Decision” at +125 is our favorite bet. If you want something wider, check out “Griffin Wins by R3 KO” at +2700. On the other side of things you can consider “Kenan Wins by R1 KO” at +950 or “Kenan Wins by R2 KO” at +1400 but we don’t like those as much.
DFS Implications:
One noteworthy point for DFS is that Griffin lost a 2019 split decision against Thiago Alves, but he still scored 77 DraftKings points in the losing effort and dominated in terms of stats: 1-0 in knockdowns, 2-0 in takedowns, 112-83 in significant strikes, 117-91 in total strikes, 1-0 in reversals, and 3:38-1:13 in control time. Obviously decisions come down to rounds won and not total stats. With that in mind, Griffin clearly won the first round, and Alves took the second. Griffin took Alves down twice in the third round, and was able to control him for an extended period of time, while Alves did essentially nothing in the round, so it looked like Griffin was clearly robbed of an obvious 29-28 decision win and a 107 point DraftKings performance (114 points on FanDuel). It definitely looked like some home cooking in that decision, which took place in Alves’ native Brazil. Had that decision gone his way, Griffin would have DraftKings scores of 77, 93 and 107 points in his last three wins, along with a 121 point performance earlier in his career, which looks far less terrible on a score sheet. While that doesn’t all of a sudden make him an exceptional DFS play, it does give us some reason to think he has the ability to put up a useful score.
Another reason for optimism in Griffin is that prior to his recent fight against a submission specialist, Griffin had averaged four takedowns landed in his previous three fights. Those came against opponents with takedown defenses of 60%, 47%, and 63%. Kenan’s takedown defense is below any of those at 45%. The last time we saw Griffin, he was just 13% owned on DraftKings on a 10 fight card as a -140 favorite priced at $8,600. We expect him to be low owned here as well, which makes him an interesting tournament leverage play. His chances for a finish are 20%, which is higher than his projected ownership.
Kenan has yet to even attempt a takedown in five UFC fights and has never landed more than 61 significant strikes in a match. Even with his lower $7,700 DraftKings price tag, it appears he’ll still need a finish to return value. He scored just 60 DraftKings in his lone UFC decision win and just 25 points in his decision loss. His ITD line comes in at +375 (19%). Working against Kenan, Griffin has only been finished once in his career, which came in a R3 KO against Colby Covington in his 2016 UFC debut. No one else has ever scored well against Griffin in DFS. The field doesn’t seem super keen on that, as Griffin’s last opponent, Ramiz Brahimaj, was 46% owned. Kenan has the makings of a popular underdog, coming off a R1 KO and with three early wins in his five UFC fights. The field generally overvalues recent scoring and undervalues context. The context to consider here is that Kenan has exclusively finished lower level opponents and Griffin has been DFS Kryptonite for opponents’ scoring.
Fight #4
Adrian Yanez
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a R1 KO win in his October 2020 UFC debut, Yanez also knocked out his previous opponent in the first round on DWCS back in August to punch his ticket to the UFC. He comes in on a five fight winning streak, with four of those coming by KO, and three of his last four ending in the first round.
He couldn’t have asked for a better matchup in his debut, as he took on an undersized, under experienced Alaskan parking lot fighter in Victor Rodriguez. With that said, Yanez made the most out of the opportunity and that’s all you can ask for. Yanez had been scheduled to fight Aaron Phillips before Phillips withdrew due to injury and Rodriguez stepped in on short notice.
Two months prior to his win in his debut, Yanez landed a 39 second R1 KO win on DWCS against Brady Huang, who entered the fight 11-1 with his only loss coming against questionable UFC talent Martin Day. Yanez’s most recent loss was against current UFC fighter Miles Johns via five round split decision in a 2018 LFA title fight. His other two career losses were a 2017 split decision and a 2014 decision in his second pro fight.
The son of a boxer, 27-year-old Yanez has great hands and has won seven of his 15 pro fights by KO. He also has two submission wins with a 2015 R1 Triangle Choke and a 2016 R3 Armbar. His other six fights all ended in decisions with him winning half of them and he’s never been finished in his young pro career. Yanez notably is a BJJ black belt. Four of Yanez’s seven career KO wins came in the first round, two occurred in round two, and the third was in round three.
Gustavo Lopez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After taking his June 2020 UFC debut on short notice against Merab Dvalishvili, Lopez was baptized into the UFC by Merhab, who dunked him 13 times on 18 attempts. Lopez showed his toughness just to survive the roller coaster ride, and bounced back with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win in his second UFC fight against his noted friend and training partner Anthony Birchak, who stepped in on short notice for his own UFC debut after Lopez’s original opponent tested positive for COVID. Birchak was clearly a big step down in competition after facing Dvalishvili, but Lopez made the most of it.
Lopez’s last four wins have now all come in the first round, with two knockouts and a pair of submissions, while his last two losses have both ended in decisions. With a 12-5 pro record, he’s only been finished twice in his career. Both of those early losses came by KO against fighters who are now in the UFC, with one against Andre Ewell in R1 of a 2018 match and the other against John Castaneda in the fourth round of a 2016 fight. His other three career losses all ended in decisions. Impressively, 11 of his 12 wins have come early. With five KOs and six submissions. Eight of those 11 finishes have come in the first round, with the other three coming in round two. His lone decision win was back in 2015, in just his fifth pro fight.
His coaches say he has a great Guillotine Choke, although Yanez hasn’t attempted a takedown in his last two fights, so that is less likely to play a factor here. Lopez has a wrestling background and is a BJJ brown belt, and will likely mix in some takedowns in this match. Just remember Yanez is a BJJ black belt.
Fight Prediction:
Yanez will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This sets up for an action packed fight between two guys each coming off their first UFC win, both in the first round. Yanez is the superior striker in this match, but Lopez is a tough opponent who has proven himself to be dangerous both on the feet and the mat. Both of these fighters have four finishes in their last five fights, with seven of those finishes coming in the first round. With Yanez’s perceived striking advantage, we expect Lopez to look to get the fight to the ground. Yanez has defended all four takedown attempts against him in his last two quick fights, but that sample size is so small it’s hard to get a clear picture of his takedown defense. He did also unofficially defend both takedown attempts from Kyle Estrada in a high-volume 15 minute LFA decision win in his third most recent match, that reinforces his solid takedown defense. We like Yanez to win this fight, but the result will likely be dictated by Lopez’s chin. If it holds up, look for Yanez to win a decision, if not, this should end with another early KO.
Where available we like “Yanez Wins by KO or Decision” at -165. Our next favorite bets are “Yanez Wins by Decision” at +350 and “Yanez Wins by R1 KO” at +390. His anytime KO line at +145 is fine also. If you think Lopez can win then his R1 win line of +800 makes some sense.
DFS Implications:
Yanez scored 107 DraftKings points and 131 points on FanDuel in his brief UFC debut. His previous performance on DWCS would have been good for 128 DraftKings points and 119 FanDuel points. As a pure striker, Yanez is reliant on finishes to score well in DFS, but lately those haven’t been hard to come by. He hasn’t attempted a takedown in his last three fights, and also hasn’t been taken down in any of those matches on six total attempts. Yanez does throw a solid amount of strikes, and actually leads the slate in significant strikes landed per minute (not counting Strader’s unofficial stats). However, at his high price tag, it’s hard for him to return value on striking alone if this fight goes the distance. His ITD line checks in at +115, implying a 43% chance he gets a finish, while his R1 win line is +333, implying a 17% chance. He should also be able to boost his FanDuel score from takedowns defended, giving him a higher floor over there.
It’s hard to see Lopez outstriking his way to a decision win in this spot, so his paths to victory are likely a finish or a dominating grappling performance. Yanez has shown a solid takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt, compared to the Brown belt of Lopez, so it seems like a longshot that Lopez would easily get him to the ground and dominate him, leaving Lopez reliant on a finish to win. With that said, Yanez has never been finished and has shown he can take a punch. Lopez’s ITD line is +375 (20%), while his R1 win line is just +800 (8%). This looks like a tough spot for him, but his history of finishes always keep him in play as a high-upside underdog.
Fight #3
Cheyanne Buys
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Cheyanne had been scheduled to fight Kay Hansen, but Hansen withdrew and Montserrat was announced as the replacement on March 12th.
Coming off an impressive decision win on DWCS back in August, Cheyanne outlanded her opponent 92-35 in significant strikes, while tacking on eight minutes of control time. She also defended all five of the takedowns attempted against her, but failed on both of her own two takedown attempts as well. The 15 minute match was really a showcase of her striking, and her fighting style is essentially the polar opposite of her husband’s wrestling heavy approach.
After just turning pro in 2018, Buys is now 5-1 as a pro and on a four fight winning streak. She won her first pro fight with a R3 KO in the LFA, but has since been to five straight decisions. She did have an extensive amateur career, including a 2015 decision loss to Gillian Robertson, so she has more fight experience than her 5-1 record might lead you to believe.
Cheyanne’s primary training partner had coincidentally been scheduled to fight Montserrat in Invicta, when Cheyanne was still scheduled to fight Kay Hansen. So Cheyanne had actually already been studying Montserrat and even pretending to be her in training sessions as she helped her partner train for their upcoming match. Then it just so happened that when Hansen dropped out, Montserrat was called up from Invicta to fill her spot.
A black belt in Taekwondo, Cheyanne is a solid striker who will be looking to keep this fight standing up.
Montserrat Ruiz
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After taking 19 months off following her first career loss in December 2018, Montserrat returned in July 2020 and looked better than ever. Following three straight decisions, she submitted Janaisa Morandin in the first round via Scarf Hold after the fight started with high paced striking. For context, Morandin came in on a two fight losing streak after getting submitted by UFC submission mechanic Virna Jandiroba and then knocked out by Cheyanne’s training partner Emily Ducote. Leading up to the submission, Montserrat was able to get Morandin down with a headlock throw, which seems to be her preferred method for takedowns.
Prior to that win, Montserrat suffered her first career loss in a decision against Danielle Taylor, who had just been released from the UFC after going 2-3 with five decisions in the organization.
Montserrat holds a 9-1 pro record, with five finishes, including three KOs and two submissions. With a wrestling background, Montserrat originally went pro in 2014 and notably has more pro experience than Cheyanne. However, she’ll now be making her UFC debut on short notice, while Cheyanne has been studying her for a period of time.
Fight Prediction:
Cheyanne will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Cheyanne is the superior striker, but Montserrat is a better grappler. We saw Cheyanne defend all five of the takedowns thrown her way in her last fight, which is a good sign for her here. The striking volume of Cheyanne is definitely impressive and she’s throwing with bad intentions. It’s hard to see Montserrat winning a pure striking battle, so this will come down to whether or not she can get Cheyanne to the mat. Considering Cheyanne will have a 3” height advantage, it may be tougher for Montserrat to successfully execute her patented headlock throw, which is almost exclusively how she’s looked for takedowns in her past couple of fights. Montserrat also seemed to struggle to find her range in her one loss, against the 64” reach of Danielle Taylor. Cheyanne has a similar 63” reach that could give the shorter Montserrat trouble. Forcing a firefight, we think Cheyanne wins an action packed decision here.
“Cheyanne Wins by Decision” at -170 is clearly the most likely outcome, but doesn’t make for a very exciting bet. The other options worth considering are “Cheyanne Wins by KO” at +500, Montserrat’s +300 moneyline, “Montserrat Wins by Submission” at +1200 or “Montserrat Wins by Decision” at +600. However, we don’t really love any of those options.
DFS Implications:
Cheyanne is a high-volume striker who’s fought to five straight decisions. With no grappling game to prop up her DFS scores and the third highest price tag on the slate, she would need somewhere in the 150 significant strike range and either a knockdown or five plus minutes of control time just to reach 100 DraftKings points. She also has the potential to score from takedowns defended on FanDuel, although it will be interesting to see how loose the scorekeepers are on documenting official attempts for headlock throws. Cheyanne’s lack of finishes and prohibitive price tag make it tough to get excited about playing her with so many other potentially high scoring options available. However, if she can boost her score with more than just high-volume striking, she has the potential to put up a big number. Her ITD line of +350 implies just a 19% chance for a finish, while her R1 win line of +700 implies just a 9% chance.
Montserrat checks in near the bottom in pricing on both DFS sites, which keeps her in play with a wider range of outcomes. Given the pace we expect Cheyanne to set, really a win of any type would likely be enough for Montserrat to end up in winning lineups. Her grappling game would also provide a scoring boost if she’s able to get Cheyanne to the ground, which is likely what it would take for her to win this fight anyways. Montserrat’s +280 moneyline implies she has a 25% chance to win, while her +650 ITD line suggests an 11% chance she finishes things early. She’s projected to be owned well below her chances of winning, which makes her an intriguing tournament play.
Fight #2
Gregor Gillespie
8th UFC Fight (6-1)THIS FIGHT IS OFF!
A former NCAA D I National Champion wrestler, Gillespie is coming off an extended 16 month layoff following his first career loss. He came into that November 2019 match against Kevin Lee with a perfect professional record of 13-0 (6-0 in the UFC), but finished it unconscious on his back.
Kevin Lee came in with the clear gameplan of focusing entirely on preventing takedowns. He utilized a super low, forward leaning, wrestling style stance. Less than three minutes into the fight he caught Gillespie with a right cross followed by a vicious left head kick that left Gillespie snoring.
Prior to the loss, Gillespie had won all six of his UFC fights, with finishes in the first two rounds of the most recent five. He came into the UFC in 2016 7-0 as a pro with six finishes, including three R1 KOs, two R1 submissions and a R2 submission win. His only two fights to make it to the judges both came in 2016, in his UFC debut and his fight just prior.
In his 2016 UFC debut, Gillespie landed 5 takedowns on a ridiculous 19 attempts, and amassed 11 minutes of control time. The win was against Glaico Franca, who came into the fight 1-1 in the UFC and was released following his second loss. Gillespie followed that up with a 21 second R1 KO win in 2017 over Andrew Holbrook, who was knocked out in the first round in three of his last four UFC fights before getting dropped by the UFC 5 months after his loss to Gillespie.
Following the quick KO, Gillespie then landed his first submission in the UFC with a 2017 R2 Arm-Triangle Choke against Jason Gonzalez, who’s also lost three of his last four fights and is no longer with the UFC. Gillespie went 4 for 6 on takedowns with nearly six minutes of control time in that match.
In 2018, Gillespie landed another R1 KO, this time with just 14 seconds left in the round against Jordan Rinaldi, who went 2-3 in the UFC and hasn’t fought in two years. Gillespie landed one takedown on two attempts and almost four minutes of control time, just a minute shy of controlling every second of the match.
He then got another R2 Arm-Triangle Choke submission win in 2018 against Vinc Pichel, who was easily Gillespie’s toughest opponent to date. Gillespie went 7 for 9 on takedowns with almost eight minutes of control time against Pichel.
Gillespie started 2019 off with a R2 KO of Yancy Medeiros, who’s now lost his last three fights. Gillespie went 6 for 11 on takedowns and accrued 8 minutes and 48 seconds of control time in a fight that ended just one second before the second round was over. If you watch the fight, Gillespie appeared to throw several borderline illegal knees to the head of a downed opponent. After the last two weeks of pandemonium the last thing we need is another DQ here. After a solid start to 2019, it couldn’t have ended much worse for Gillespie, as he then was violently knocked out by a Kevin Lee head kick, and he didn’t fight at all in 2020.
So to sum up the UFC records of the opponents Gillespie beat: 1-2 (no longer in the UFC), 2-3 (no longer in the UFC), 1-3 (no longer in the UFC), 2-3 (no longer in the UFC), 6-2, 6-7 (but has lost his last three). Essentially a bunch of guys on their way out of the UFC and Vinc Pichel.
Brad Riddell
4th UFC Fight (3-0)A member of the City Kickboxing crew, Riddell comes in having won six straight, with his last four all ending in decisions. The only loss of his career resulted from a 2018 R1 Armbar Submission a little over a year before he joined the UFC. He’s 9-1 as a pro in MMA, but also has 69 kickboxing matches to his name, where he went 59-10 and was a former world champion.
While Riddell’s last four MMA matches all went to the judges, his first six fights all ended early. During that time, he landed three R1 KOs, a pair of R2 KOs and was submitted once in the first round. It would be remiss of us not to point out that Riddell’s five career KOs came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-1, 12-3, 1-2, and 8-4-1. With that said, Riddell has solid striking and we’re not suggesting he’s a fraud, he just hasn’t proven he can finish high level opponents.
Riddell’s last fight before joining the UFC was a five round Welterweight Championship match under the Wollongong Wars organization, where Riddell won the title in a 25 minute decision. He clearly has solid cardio.
Riddell came into the UFC in 2019 against Jamie Mullarkey (30% career takedown accuracy), who went 3 for 15 on takedown attempts against Riddell. While Mullarkey only holds a 30% career takedown accuracy, he’s also only had two UFC fights, so a 3 for 15 performance will tend to skew that number.
Following the win in his debut, he took on Magomed Mustafaev (50% career takedown accuracy), who went 8 for 11 on takedown attempts against Riddell. In a grappling heavy affair, Riddell made the most of his strikes outlanding Mustafaev 38-28 in significant strikes and landing an early knockdown.
Then, most recently he defeated Alex da Silva Coelho (43% career takedown accuracy), who went 3 for 9 on takedown attempts. Riddell might have been able to get a R3 KO in this fight, but the ref paused the fight after Riddell landed a clear punch to the eye of Da Silva, which Da Silva protested as a poke.
So while Riddell has been taken down 14 times in his three UFC fights, he’s also defended 21 attempts. Most fighters don’t face 35 takedown attempts in their first three UFC fights. Riddell would love a striking match, but the UFC continues to match him up with grapplers. The bright side of that is that he continues to improve on his weaknesses while still winning fights.
Riddell started his career off at Welterweight (170 lb), before moving down to Lightweight (155 lb) when he joined the UFC. He has a big frame for the division and certainly looks like the bigger man here. Gillespie notably wrestled at 149 lb back in college before moving up to 155 lb to start his MMA career.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” with a 71” reach, but Riddell is five years younger than Gillespie.
While Gillespie is looking to restart his momentum, Riddell comes in on a six fight winning streak and undefeated in the UFC. Apparently the stated reason for Gillespie not fighting in 2020 is that he lives in New York, so there was nowhere to train during the pandemic. Meanwhile Brad Riddell is training with world champions on a daily basis, working on his grappling and staying active, while also coming into the prime of his career. This seems like a tale of two careers colliding as they move in opposite directions. Riddell has faced three straight grapplers so far in the UFC, and has held his own against all three. While his background is in kickboxing, not wrestling, Riddell does a good job of using his strength to make up for any lack of experience. Gillespie isn’t a completely terrible striker, but he’s more or less a one dimensional wrestler who cannot compete with Riddell in a kickboxing match. Despite Gillespie getting all the hype, we like Riddell’s chances to pull off the upset here, either with an early KO or in a tactical decision.
Riddell’s +200 moneyline looks like the best play, but if you want to take a shot at something longer check out his R1 KO line at +850.
DFS Implications:
In his six UFC wins, Gillespie has averaged 124 DraftKings points and 120 points on FanDuel. With 11 of his 13 career wins coming early, and massive takedown and control time numbers, it’s impossible to ignore Gillespie’s upside. He’s put up DraftKings scores of 146, 128, 117, 121, 129 and 105 in his UFC wins and his last 6 fights have all ended in the first 2 rounds. However, he just turned 34 Thursday and now hasn’t stepped inside the Octagon for 16 months. He also apparently had very limited training available during the pandemic as he lives in New York. However, the odds imply he has a 68% chance to win this fight. His one UFC fight to end in a decision scored 105 DraftKings points, largely based on control time, but just 75 points on FanDuel. So at least on FanDuel, he likely needs a finish to pay off, and at his high DraftKings price it’s still no sure thing that decision would score enough to be useful. His ITD line comes in at +135, implying roughly a 38% chance of a finish.
Riddell has yet to put up a usable DraftKings score, but did drop 117 FanDuel points in his UFC debut on the back of 12 takedowns defended and 91 significant strikes landed. He’s also notched one takedown of his own in each of his three UFC fights. Gillespie projects to be one of the most popular fighters on the DFS slate so Riddell is in a perfect leverag spot. Gillespie is also coming off an extended layoff and really hasn’t faced the toughest competition, outside of his loss to Kevin Lee and victory over Vinc Pichel. Riddell can absolutely win this fight with either an early KO or in a lower volume decision. His ITD line checks in at +425, implying just a 17% chance he ends things early, but his moneyline implies he has a 32% chance to win the fight. That seems fair considering his last four fights have all ended in decisions, but he's certainly capable of getting a finish and Gillespie was violently knocked out in the first round of his last match. Riddell looks like an especially good play on FanDuel. Gillespie has gone 23 for 48 on his takedown attempts over his seven UFC fights, including a 5 for 19 performance in his lone decision. He tops the slate in takedown attempts/15 min. at 14.9, landed at 7 and missed at 7.9. If this fight goes the full 15 minutes Riddell should have ample opportunity to score well from takedowns defended on FanDuel.
Fight #1
Kevin Holland
11th UFC Fight (8-2)Since getting submitted in the second round of a 2019 match against Brendan Allen, Holland won all five of his fights in 2020 and earned his BJJ black belt. Four of those wins came by KO, with three in the first round. Still just 28 years old, Holland appears to be entering his prime years and ready to make some noise at the top of the Middleweight division.
Holland started 2020 off with a 39 second KO of Fluffy Hernandez with an early striking assault that closed the show nearly immediately. Then he was scheduled to take on Daniel Hernandez in May, but was forced to withdraw due to a shoulder injury. That appears to be a recurring injury for Holland, which also popped up during the Alessio Di Chirico fight in June of 2019, where he looked to dislocate it and he made it sound like that wasn’t the first time. Hernandez then took on Gabe Green in what remains one of the biggest DFS mispricings of all time.
Anyways, once Holland was cleared from the shoulder injury, he was scheduled to face Trevin Giles. In another infamous UFC DFS moment, Giles fainted backstage just before the walkout and the fight was canceled. Holland hung around the Apex, however, and was given a new opponent the following week in UFC newcomer Joaquin Buckley. [It really feels like all the big UFC DFS moments of 2020 somehow lead back to Kevin Holland].
After coaching Buckley through the first two rounds of the fight and dropping him with a sharp right hand in the first, Holland finished the much shorter Buckley early in the third round, giving him the motivation to come back and land the knockout of the year in his next match against Impa Kasanganay. Holland showed he can absorb violent strikes with a smile on his face against Buckley and proved that again in his next match.
Following his third round KO of Buckley, Holland took on Darren Stewart, who was the only person to go the distance with Holland in 2020. Stewart made the fight close in the third round, forcing a split decision, and got Holland to the ground three times on eight attempts. Stewart ended the fight on top of Holland for the final 90 seconds, laying heavy ground and pound, and seemingly laying out a blueprint for how Brunson could win this fight. Holland looked tired and at no point was close to getting back up. In post fight interviews Holland even said he thought the fight could have been a draw or even a Stewart victory. While Holland looks extremely durable standing up, he seems more vulnerable on his back at times—although “Jacare” Souza may not agree with that.
Next, Holland stepped into a Halloween fight on short notice after Krzysztof Jotko dropped out of a match against Makhmud Muradov. However, then Muradov also dropped out of the fight just three days before it was scheduled to happen. So in steps Charlie Ontiveros on just three days notice to take on 2-week late replacement Kevin Holland. Ontiveros landed an early axe kick, and Holland was having no part of it. He immediately slammed Ontiveros to the mat and forced the flashy kicker to fight off his back. The fight briefly made it back to the feet, but as Holland slammed Ontiveros a second time, the UFC newcomer said he felt something pop in his neck and the fight was immediately stopped, giving Holland a flukey R1 finish.
Most recently Holland took on a 41-year-old “Jacare” Souza and got another bizarre R1 finish as he knocked out Souza from his back. Holland was supposed to take on Jack Hermansson in the main event the week before he fought Souza, but Holland tested positive for COVID and was replaced by Marvin Vettori. Holland claims the test was a false positive and he repeatedly tested negative just a few days later, so who knows what exactly was going on. But he got cleared just a week later and notched his fifth win in 2020. Interestingly, three of Holland’s five wins in 2020 came in short notice fights, so both him and his opponents have rarely had time to prepare for one another.
This next fight will be Holland’s first five round fight in the UFC, but the fourth of his career. In his previous three, he landed a 2018 R3 KO Win, a 2017 R3 KO Win over Geoff Neal, which is the only time Neal has ever been KO'd, and a 2016 R1 KO Win.
Holland is 21-5 as a pro, with 17 of his wins coming early. He has 11 wins by KO, including seven in R1, three in R3 and one in R2. He also has six submission victories, with four in the first round, one in the second and one in the third. His other four wins all came in decisions. While he’s never been knocked out, he has been submitted twice. Most recently by Brendan Allen via Rear-Naked Choke in R2, and prior to that in R1 of a 2015 LFA match in his sixth pro fight.
Holland is now a black belt in BJJ and a second degree black belt in Kung Fu. In the past, Holland really hasn’t had to cut weight and often showed up under the limit. However, he talked about putting on some more muscle as he commits to staying at Middleweight. Update: Sike. Holland showed up 3 lb under the limit once again.
Derek Brunson
18th UFC Fight (12-5)Since switching camps to Sanford MMA in 2019, Brunson is 3-0 and has demonstrated a much more patent fighting style. Not coincidentally, all three of those fights have made it to the third round, after 9 of his previous 10 ended in round one.
Brunson is coming off an impressive upset of the previously undefeated prospect Edmen Shahbazyan this past August. After opening as a +205 underdog in that match, Brunson’s line was bet up to +300. He seemed to take exception to being treated as a gatekeeper and nearly finished Shahbazyan in the closing moments of the second round, before eventually forcing a stoppage early in the third.
Prior to that win, Brunson defeated Ian Heinisch in a three round decision. Heinisch stumbled Brunson very early in the fight with a head kick, but Brunson fought back to win the unanimous decision. Both guys looked gassed by the third round, so it will be interesting to see how Brunson’s cardio holds up in the second half of this upcoming fight if it makes it that far.
Brunson holds a 21-7 pro record, with 20 of those fights ending early. He has 12 career wins by knockout, including 11 in the first round. The one exception came in his recent R3 KO of Shahbazyan. He also has three career submission wins but none since 2013. All three of those submissions were by Rear-Naked Choke, and all in the first round. His other six wins have all gone the distance, with two of those coming in his last three fights. Five of his seven losses have also come early, all by KO. Four of those losses came in the first round, while the other was a 2014 third round loss to Yoel Romero.
This will be Brunson’s fourth career five round fight—although none of the previous three made it out of the first round. His most recent was a 2018 R1 KO loss against “Jacare” Souza, who Kevin Holland notably knocked out in the first round of his last fight. Prior to that Brunson knocked out an old Lyoto Machida in the first round of their 2017 headliner. And going back to Brunson’s first career five round fight in 2016, Brunson was knocked out by Robert Whittaker late in R1. So he’s 1-2 in five rounders, with all three ending in the first five minutes. However, those notably all came before he switched camps to Sanford MMA and changed the way he approaches fights.
Interestingly, all 28 of Brunson’s pro fights have either ended in R1 or R3/R3 decision. He’s never been beyond the third round (as we just mentioned) and has never had a fight stopped in the second.
A three time D2 All-American wrestler in college, Brunson is a BJJ brown belt. While he frequently looks to take fights to the mat, he’s more looking for heavy ground and pound than submissions once he gets there. With that said, he has shown the ability to choke opponents out, just not in the last eight years. He averages a solid three takedowns per 15 minutes, despite owning a tattered 31% takedown accuracy. That means he also averages 6.7 missed takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Holland’s takedown defense is below average at 52% and he’s been taken down 18 times in his 10 UFC fights. Brunson has gone 10 for 27 on takedowns in his last three fights. When you combine Brunson’s poor accuracy with Holland’s below average defense, it’s fair to expect Brunson to land a takedown for about every two that Holland defends. A 3 for 9 or 4 for 12 performance seems realistic if this fight makes it past the halfway mark. Brunson has never landed more than four takedowns in a fight.
On the other side of things, Brunson has amazingly never been taken down in the UFC, although only 6 of his 17 opponents have actually attempted one. They’ve gone 0 for 4, 0 for 4, 0 for 1, 0 for 1, 0 for 1, and 0 for 8, for a total of zero takedowns on 16 attempts. While Holland only lands 1.2 takedowns on 2.8 attempts per 15 minutes (42% takedown accuracy), we don’t expect him to score from takedowns in this match.
Brunson’s last three KOs have come against a pair of 39 year olds and a 22 year-old kid. You have to go all the way back to 2016 when he knocked out Uriah Hall in R1 to find a time where Brunson finished someone in the prime of their career. Prior to his recent R3 KO of Shahbazyan, Brunson’s last two KO’s both came in 2017. The first was against Daniel Kelly, who was 39 years old at the time and went on to lose his next two fights afterwards, before being dropped by the UFC in 2018. The second was against a 39-year-old Lyoto Machida, who came in on a two fight losing streak (both early losses) and was released from the UFC a year later.
Brunson has looked very vulnerable to head kicks. Whittaker caught him with a clean one to the side of the dome just before finishing him with strikes, as did Souza more recently. Adesanya went for the trifecta, catching Brunson with a knee, a head kick and a punch, knocking Brunson down three times in about 30 seconds of action. Even Heinisch landed an early head kick in their match and Brunson looked to be in trouble, but was able to recover. Brunson is now 37 years old, and while he still has solid power, he’s gone 5-4 in his last nine fights and has disappointed more often than not in the biggest spots. This will be a big opportunity for either Holland to prove that he’s for real or for Brunson to get back into the contender conversation.
Fight Prediction:
Holland will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Neither one of these fighters has ever been to a 4th round and the cardio of each will be a big question if this fight makes it past the midway point. With that said, we think this ends in the first three rounds with a knockout. Brunson looks like the more powerful of the two men and is the better wrestler, but Holland is faster, more elusive, has a better chin and offers a wider range of striking. Brunson’s best chance will be to get the fight to the ground and wear Holland out with ground and pound. If Holland can keep the fight standing up, we like him to win by KO. Also keep in mind that Holland is a BJJ black belt, while Brunson is a brown belt. So there are some scenarios where Brunson looks to get the fight to the ground but ends up getting reversed and potentially choked out. However, Holland hasn’t submitted anyone since his second UFC fight and Brunson has never been taken down or submitted. A R1 or R3 knockout seem like the most likely options in this one.
There are a few props we like in this opposed to betting on a specific fighter. Betting the fight ends in the first three rounds at +100 looks solid (time prop). We also like betting the fight ends with a KO at -140 (how will the fight end prop). Next, we like that the fight will end in a R1 KO at +390 or a R3 KO at +750 (alt method & round props). Those are all independent from who wins, but we also think Brunson’s ITD line at +300 is slightly too wide based on the fact that he’s a +145 underdog and we don’t see this going the distance.
DFS Implications:
Holland has averaged 102 DraftKings points across his eight UFC wins and 114 points in his five finishes (97, 113, 98, 131, 133). Priced at just $8,400 it’s hard to see him putting up a complete dud in a win as his decision floor is raised by the fact that it’s a five round fight. However, it’s unlikely this fight goes the full five rounds and we don’t expect a huge volume driven score here. Brunson notably has never been taken down in 17 UFC fights. While Holland doesn’t average many takedowns, if you remove his 1.2 landed per 15 minutes then that bumps his ceiling down some. Brunson also only absorbs 2.95 significant strikes per minute and no one has ever landed more than 65 on him in a fight. While those are the areas of concern for Holland’s potential DFS scoring, Brunson has been knocked out in the first round in 4 of his 5 early losses. Seven of Holland’s 11 career KO wins have also come in the first round. Boosting Holland’s FanDuel scoring potential, Brunson averages the third highest number of missed takedown attempts on the slate at 6.7 per 15 minutes. The odds suggest Holland has a 61% chance to win this fight and a 43% chance to finish things early. His R1 line is +400, implying just a 15% chance he gets it done in the first five minutes.
As a +300 underdog in his last fight, Brunson was just 11% owned on DraftKings when he pulled the massive upset of Edmen Shahbazyan (75% owned) in a three round main event this past August. He was coming off a pair of lower scoring decision wins following back-to-back R1 KO losses and going against a huge favorite, so it’s not overly surprising the field was down on him, but it will be interesting to see his ownership coming off a big win. His path to victory is landing takedowns, control time and ground strikes, making him a better play on DraftKings. Holland has shown himself to be extremely tough on the feet, but got in trouble on the ground late against another powerful opponent in Darren Stewart. The odds suggest Brunson has a 39% chance to win this fight, which is close to his projected ownership. His ITD line comes in at +310 (22%), while his R1 line is (8%). At his cheaper price tag, Brunson most likely ends up in winning lineups with a win here and he scored 110 DraftKings points in his recent R3 KO victory.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma