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The Klose/Pena Fight is OFF! The Alves/Sabatini Fight is also canceled after Alves missed weight by 11.5 lb!
Fighter Notes:
Serghei Spivac
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Coming off a July decision win over Carlos Felipe, Spivac has now been involved in back-to-back decisions after his first 11 pro fights all ended early. Spivac outlanded Felipe 73-44 in significant strikes while going 3 for 7 on takedowns. He did land a ton of total strikes at the end of the fight after finally getting Felipe to the mat.
Spivac started his UFC career off in 2019, but his debut against Walt Harris only lasted 50 seconds before Spivac got knocked out. He landed just one significant strike in the fight, while absorbing 17. No takedowns were attempted.
He bounced back from the loss with a R2 Arm-Triangle Choke Submission win over Tai Tuivasa. He outlanded Tuivasa 23-21 in significant strikes, but more importantly went 6 for 8 on takedowns.
He followed that up with a one-sided decision loss to Marcin Tybura before his most recent decision win over Felipe. The 234 lb Spivac notably seemed to struggle with the size and power of the 246 lb Tybura, who was able to control Spivac on the ground and against the fence. Tybura outlanded Spivac 43-23 in the low-volume match while going 2 for 8 on takedowns. Spivac failed on his only takedown attempt in the fight.
Looking at his entire pro career, Spivac has four knockout wins and six by submission, with just one of his victories requiring the judges, which came in his last fight. His only two losses both came in the UFC, with the previously mentioned KO in his debut and the decision loss to Tybura.
Jared Vanderaa
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a November R1 KO win on DWCS, Vanderaa made an uncommon move of calling out an opponent before he was even awarded a UFC contract. Even more surprising, he was actually granted his request. Stylistically this matchup makes a lot of sense. Both of these two fighters fall into the rare Heavyweight grappler category, and we rarely see two of those square off against one another.
While Spivac has four UFC fights under his belt, he’s actually three years younger than the BJJ black belt Vanderaa. Also interesting, Spivac has a total of 13 pro fights while Vanderaa has 15. Vanderaa has won 5 of his last 6 matches, while Spivac has alternated wins and losses over his four UFC fights.
In a recent interview, Vanderaa talked about how he was supposed to fight Spivac back in 2017 or 2018 but Spivak pulled out of the fight. It doesn’t appear anything was ever formally booked.
Vanderaa’s DWCS fight only lasted three and a half minutes, but he looked pretty hittable before he took the fight to the ground and finished it with his ground and pound. He did show he could take a punch, but it’s hard to take too much away from the short fight. One thing to note, Vanderaa’s opponent in that match, Harry Hunsucker, took the fight on less than a week’s notice.
Vanderaa comes in with an 11-4 pro record, with seven of his wins coming by KO and three by submission. He’s also been submitted twice himself, but has never been knocked out. While five of his last six fights have ended early, only one of his last eight have ended in the first round. He’s had three fights make it to the 5th round, with two of those ending in decisions. At least on paper, he seems like he has the gas tank to remain competitive late into fights.
Fight Prediction:
Vanderaa will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage in this fight.
He should also have a noticeable size advantage as he weighed in at 263.5 lb for his last fight, while Spivac last tipped the scales at 240 lb. That will be something to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. Obviously being heavier isn’t always an advantage, just look at Chris Daukaus’ last couple fights. However, in a fight between two grapplers we think it might help Vanderaa to overpower Spivac the same way Tybura was able to.
While the line has moved some in favor of Spivac, we’ve never found him to be an overly impressive fighter. So maybe we’re coming in with a bias, but we think Vanderaa is a live dog here. It’s really more a bet against Spivac than a true vote of confidence in Vanderaa, but we could see either guy winning this one. It could very well come down to whether or not Spivac is able to get Vanderaa to the ground and control him. If Spivac wins, we expect it to either come by Submission or in a decision. While the majority of Vanderaa’s wins have come by KO, he does have three R1 submission wins on his record earlier in his career.
We don’t feel confident with any specific line in this fight but there are a few dart throws we’re sort of looking at. On Vanderaa’s side, his Submission line at +2300 or R1 Submission line at +5000 are interesting, albeit unlikely, if you want to start the night off with a longshot, while his +200 moneyline is the “safer” bet. For Spivac, his R2 Submission line at +1100 has some potential. Just keep in mind, with a wide range of outcomes in this match and there are better plays later in the card.
DFS Implications:
The new DraftKings scoring system should benefit both of these Heavyweight grapplers and allow them to still score well into the later rounds. In Spivac’s last match he landed 165 total strikes, but just 73 significant and had nearly six minutes of control time. That was good for 101 DraftKings points, but just 82 points on FanDuel. In his other UFC win he scored 120 points on DraftKings and 130 FanDuel points, with a R2 submission propped up by six takedowns and over four minutes of control time. Spivac has yet to win a fight in the UFC where he didn’t land a takedown, but Vanderaa’s takedown defense remains more or less a mystery. If Spivac is able to put up another dominating wrestling performance, he has the potential to put up a huge score, however, if he struggles to get the fight to the mat, he’ll likely be in trouble.
Ten of Vanderaa’s 11 career wins have come early, although at his lower price, even just a decent score might be enough for Vanderaa to be useful in DFS. Spivac seemed to have a tough time with the size of Tybura in their February 2020 fight, so it will be important to monitor weigh-ins and faceoffs with these two guys to judge just how much larger Vanderaa looks. Vanderaa opened the week as a +190 underdog and the line has slowly crept up to +200, implying he has a 32% chance to come out victorious. His +270 ITD line implies he has roughly a 23% to land an early finish, which is higher than where we project his ownership.
Drako Rodriguez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off an early finish on DWCS, Rodriguez landed a R1 submission win this past September in an efficient finish that lasted under two and a half minutes. We only saw a total of eight significant strikes landed in the fight, as it quickly ended up on the ground within the first minute.
Only one of his eight pro fights made it to the judges and 5 of his 6 early wins came in R1, with the other coming in R2. He has two wins by knockout and four submission victories. His only career loss came against current UFC fighter Tony Gravely via R5 KO.
Rodriguez has fought anywhere between 135 lb to 155 lb in his career, but his last six fights have been at 135 lb. While the 24-year-old Rodriguez only has eight pro fights on his record, he did have an extensive amateur career where he went 10-0 before turning pro.
We thought Drako showed impressive striking and a solid ground game. There’s always some level of speculation involved with a guy making his UFC debut, but we love everything we’ve seen out of Rodriguez and are excited to see what he brings on the big stage. He also gets an opponent who hasn’t fought since May 2019 and who hasn’t won since February 2017.
UPDATE: Drako missed weight badly, coming in at 140.5 lb for this 135 lb match.
Aiemann Zahabi
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off a 21 month layoff and having fought just once in the last three years, Zahabi has lost his last two fights as he enters into the final fight on his UFC contract. His only UFC win came by decision in his 2017 debut. His last loss came in a low-volume decision against Vince Morales, who then went on to lose his next two fights.
A BJJ black belt, prior to joining the UFC Zahabi held a perfect 6-0 record with all six wins coming in R1. Unsurprisingly those wins came against opponents with limited experience and dubious records. They entered those fights with records of: 0-5, 4-6, 0-0, 7-8, 2-0, and 3-1. Amazingly those opponents went on to combine for a 1-8 record following their losses to Zahabi.
Zahabi trains under his older brother, who’s apparently a world renown trainer. In his UFC debut, Zahabi’s corner/brother wanted him to let his opponent wear himself out, which isn’t a great thing to hear if you’re hoping for high scoring, high paced DFS brawls.
In an October 2019 interview, Zahabi said that in the Ramos fight he got too aggressive in the third round, and thought Ramos couldn’t hurt him and that’s why he got caught with the elbow that put him out. Then he went on to say that in his next fight he got too cautious against Morales and never really got going—which sounds accurate considering he only landed 28 significant strikes and one takedown on five attempts in 15 minutes of action.
When asked about how infrequently he had been fighting, Zahabi said he took an extended layoff following the Ramos fight because he got a concussion and was worried about CTE if he came back too soon. Then he turned down a July 2018 fight because his twin daughters were born a few weeks prior. Then he turned down another one because it was a two week short notice fight and he was concerned about making weight.
Zahabi also confirmed this next fight will be the final fight on his current contract. Interestingly, when asked about his mindset going into the final fight on his contract, he said he thought the UFC might resign him even in a loss, as long as he put on a good show, but they could potentially cut him, even in a win, if it was a boring decision. So he does seem to have the mindset that he needs to push the pace and put on a good show in this one. Keep in mind that interview took place 16 months ago and it’s unclear why he hasn’t fought since, especially considering he said he was ready to fight at that time.
Here’s our speculative narrative take:
We’re not entirely convinced that Zahabi really has the drive and desire to be a successful UFC fighter. With his brother being a world class trainer, it almost seems like he took the path of least resistance opposed to really having the drive to forge his own way. He took a year and a half off from fighting after his second UFC fight and then did the same thing after his third UFC fight. We think he’s fighting out his contract to cash one last payday and this very well might be the last time we see him fighting in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are the same height, but Rodriguez will have a 1” reach advantage.
Rodriguez comes across as a young guy who just loves fighting. He’s hungry to get his opportunity in the UFC and looks primed for a stellar performance. Zahabi, on the other hand, is nine years older, has twin babies at home, is dragging out his first UFC contract at a snail’s pace, and is openly talking about his concern for the lasting impact of CTE caused by concussions. He’s turning down fights for all sorts of reasons and making excuses for past performances. It just doesn’t feel like his heart is really in it and that’s not where you want to be stepping into the Octagon against a hungry young pitbull. We think Rodriguez ends both this fight and Zahabi’s UFC career early come Saturday.
UPDATE: Drako’s bad weigh-in miss is definitely cause for concern and certainly muddies the water here.
We like Drako’s -190 moneyline as a safe option, and think his +230 ITD, R1 +600 R1 Win, +950 R2 Win, +500 Submission and +1100 R1 Submission lines are all squarely in play. While 4 of Drako’s 6 finishes are by submission, it’s definitely possible he knocks him out.
DFS Implications:
Rodriguez’s striking volume and takedown stats are based on his 142 second DWCS fight and therefore can essentially be ignored as that fight stayed upright for less than a minute. While we don’t entirely know what Rodriguez’s numbers would really look like in a decision, we’re playing him for a finish, and we’re confident he can score well in that scenario. We think he’s a solid play on both sites, and while there’s always a risk playing guys making their UFC debuts, there’s also often an even bigger reward in taking a stand on guys the field isn’t familiar with.
While Zahabi talked about wanting to make his next fight an exciting one, we’re not convinced he’s capable of living up to the task. It seems like he already has one foot out the door and he isn’t a guy we’re looking to play in DFS. Let’s hope the field is aware enough to look at Zahabi’s superficial 6-0 pre-UFC record with a 100% R1 finish rate, but not sharp enough to dig deeper into those opponents, but that’s likely asking a lot. It’s far more likely the majority of people will just look at his pathetic DraftKings scoresheet and fade him based on that alone.
Jamall Emmers
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a padded win against Vince Cachero, who was making his UFC debut on extremely short notice and had lost two of his last three fights in the LFA. Emmers had originally been scheduled to face a significantly tougher opponent in Timur Valievm, who dropped out just days before the event. In his previous fight, which was his own UFC debut, Emmers lost a controversial low-volume split decision to Giga Chikadze.
Despite having just two UFC fights under his belt, Emmers fought 21 times professionally before joining the UFC, and has over eight years of pro experience. He’s also fought several current UFC fighters outside of the UFC, including a 2018 R2 KO loss to Julian Erosa, a 2017 decision win over Cory Sandhagen, a 2016 R5 KO loss to Thiago Moises, and a 2013 decision win over Alexander Hernandez.
Following his 2018 R2 KO loss to Julian Erosa on DWCS, Emmers won four straight fights outside of the UFC, including three KOs and a submission, before finally getting invited into the UFC Emmers has won 9 of his last 11 fights and it probably should be 10 if the decision had gone his way in his debut.
Of Emmers’ 18 career wins, 10 have come early with seven KOs and three submissions. On the other side of things, he’s been finished early in three of his five losses, with two KOs and one submission.
Emmers successfully defended both of the takedown attempts against him in his last match but wasn’t forced to defend any in his debut, so his 100% takedown defense is based on very limited data.
Chas Skelly
12th UFC Fight (7-3, NC)Skelly last fought in September 2019, when he defeated Jordan Griffin in a low volume decision. It’s now been 17 months since he stepped inside the Octagon. After only fighting once in 2018 and once in 2019, Skelly has now fought just two times since May 2017. He had been scheduled to fight Grant Dwason in January 2020, but Dawson withdrew from the event. Then it was rescheduled for February 2020, however that time Skelly was forced to withdraw due to injury. Apparently Skelly suffered a mysterious upper body injury, which was serious enough that Skelly described it as career threatening. He had already been through Tommy John surgery a couple years earlier and said another surgery would likely be the end of his career.
Seven of his 11 UFC fights have ended early, although one of those was a 2018 R2 submission loss that was later overturned to a “No Contest” after it was decided that he never tapped or lost consciousness and the ref shouldn’t have stopped the fight. With that result overturned, Skelly still only has one official early loss in the UFC, which came in a 2017 R3 KO against Jason Knight.
After losing a decision to Mirsad Bektic in his 2014 UFC debut, Skelly rattled off four straight wins, with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke, followed by a decision, then a R2 KO, and a R2 Rear-Naked Choke. He then lost a decision to Darren Elkins.
Following the loss, he put up a highlight reel finish with a jousting start to his 2016 fight against Maximo Blanco. Both guys charged each other with flying kicks up the middle to start the fight, but Skelly won the reach battle and finished the fight just seconds later with an Anaconda Choke on the ground.
Following the 19 second finish, Skelly landed another R2 Rear-Naked Choke finish, this time against Chris Gruetzemacher, before getting knocked out in the third round of his next match. He then got choked out in the controversial stoppage, but it was later overturned to a No Contest. He then won a decision in his most recent fight.
So in summary, two of his three UFC losses have come by decision, while the third was a R3 KO. Four of his seven UFC wins have come by submission, two have been by decision, and one was by KO.
Primarily a wrestler, Skelly’s striking looked bad in his last match. Now 35 years old and coming off an extended layoff and injury, it’s hard to imagine it’s improved at this point in his career. He looks like he’s entirely reliant on wrestling to win this fight.
Fight Prediction:
Skelly will have a 1” height advantage, but Emmers will have a 2” reach advantage.
Both Emmers and Skelly have wrestling backgrounds, but Skelly was the far more accomplished wrestler at the collegiate level as an All-American, while Emmers collegiate wrestling career ended before it ever started due to an injury. Skelly will be looking to take this fight to the mat, and the majority of his wins have come by choking out his opponents. Emmers looks like the far superior striker, so he would be wise to try and keep this one standing up. Emmers has successfully defended the only two takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, so we’ve yet to see his wrestling at this level. As long as he can avoid getting taken down and choked out by Kelley, we think Emmers wins this fight either by KO or in a decision, with the latter being the more likely.
We think the three most likely outcomes in this fight are Emmers “Wins by Decision” at +135, Emmers “Wins by KO” at +310 or Skelly “Wins by Submission” at +700. However, we don’t see a ton of value in any of those lines.
DFS Implications:
Due to a late opponent change in his last fight, Emmers was a -545 favorite, priced at just $7,800/$12 and therefore 66% owned on DraftKings. Even with the fight ending in a decision, he rewarded everyone that played him with a 121.5 point performance (old DK scoring), which would have been good for 109 points under the new scoring system. Emmers landed an impressive 103 significant strikes and 5 takedowns in the decision win. However, it’s far less likely that he’ll be as inclined to take this fight to the ground, as he goes up against a more one-dimensional wrestler in Skelly. Because of that, Emmers will likely be more reliant on getting a knockout here and we don’t see him putting up nearly as big a score in a decision. His R1 win line is set at +650, implying just a 10% chance he pulls it off, while his overall ITD line comes in at +240, implying roughly a 25% chance. Priced at $8,800, he’ll likely need either a R1 win or a well timed R2 finish to outscore the other high priced fighters. He’ll likely be slightly overowned after putting up a big score in his last decision and rewarding so much of the field for playing him. This isn’t a spot where we’re excited to play him and Skelly will be looking to make this fight ugly. Emmers does make a little more sense on FanDuel where he can score from takedowns defended, as Skelly averages the 8th most number of missed takedowns on the slate at 3.3/15 minutes.
Up until his most recent, lower scoring decision win, Skelly had scored at least 89 DraftKings points in all seven of his UFC wins, with totals of 76, 98, 116, 89, 103, 93, and 98. His opening moneyline was set at +175, but we’ve since seen that extend to +195, implying he has a 32% chance to win this fight. Skelly has never landed more than 42 significant strikes in a UFC bout so he’s reliant on wrestling and finishes to score well in DFS. His ITD line implies he has just a 16% chance to finish this one early, so more likely than not he would need a dominating wrestling performance to win this fight and score well if it goes to the judges. After dealing with injuries over the last few years and now 35 years olds, Skelly seems like a fighter on the decline and his UFC days could be numbered. He looks like a submission or bust play and his last submission win came in 2017.
Casey O'Neill
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut in just her 6th pro fight, O'Neill started her pro career at 115 lb, but moved up to 125 lb in 2020 where she’s gone 2-0 in back-to-back dominating performances. She trained at Tiger Muay Thai, but moved to Vegas last year when Thailand was essentially shut down for COVID.
O'Neill is the daughter of the owner of Eternal MMA, which is the Australian promotion she fought her first four fights under and became the Strawweight Champion of. Her dad is also a former fighter and she looks to have violence coursing through her veins. In her corner for this fight she’ll have her dad, her boyfriend and one other person.
O'Neill looks like a solid striker with a controlling ground game and has trained with several big names in the UFC. While she doesn’t have a ton of pro experience, she’s undefeated and comes into her UFC debut as a -155 favorite against a UFC veteran, which says a lot.
Despite her limited pro experience, there really don’t appear to be any weaknesses in her game, as she has looked fantastic both on her feet and on the mat. She looks like a potential future star in the division if she can continue the success she’s had so far in her career into the UFC.
Shana Dobson
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Dobson is coming off one of the craziest upsets in UFC history as a +950 underdog against Mariya Agapova, who looked to completely gas herself out in the first round. Going into that fight, Dobson was coming off a 40 second R1 KO loss and on a three fight skid. She was likely fighting to keep her job. Prior to the string of losses, Dobson won her 2017 UFC debut with a R2 KO in what was just her fourth pro fight.
Before joining the UFC, all three of Dobson’s pro fights had ended in decisions, which she had won two of. She’s now 4-4 as a pro, with a pair of R2 KO wins and two wins by decision. Three of her four career losses went the distance, while the other was a R1 KO.
Fight Prediction:
O’Neill looks like an absolute beast on tape and seems to be getting better with every fight. It’s hard to say exactly how this fight ends, as O’Neill has looked great both on her feet and the mat, and Dobson has only been finished once in her career, but we do feel very confident that O’Neill wins this one.
O’Neills -154 moneyline looks like one of the best bets on the slate.
DFS Implications:
O’Neill is making her UFC debut following a series of dominating performances with lopsided striking and massive amounts of control time. She should be a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system, and is priced at sort of a sneaky spot, just behind Daukaus and ahead of Hawes. With so many great options to choose from on this slate, we don’t think much of the field will be looking to play her here, especially with no DraftKings scores to go by. With low ownership, and a high floor/ceiling combination, O’Neill looks to be an exceptional DFS play in all contest types. We think she has the potential to absolutely explode here and pants the majority of the field that overlooked her.
Dobson is coming off the biggest upset in UFC history and now gets a hungry young fighter looking to make a name for herself. What could go wrong? She absorbs the fourth most significant strikes on average on the slate and sports an impressive 0% takedown defense. She’s also .500 as a pro and has lost three of her last four fights. [Stop us at any time]. Her only other UFC win came against Ariel Beck, who came into that fight on a two fight losing streak, and having lost three of her last four, and never fought again after the 2017 loss. Despite all of this, there will be people that play Dobson purely based on the fact that she finished an incapaciated opponent, who may or may not have slipped herself a cyanide pill in between the first and second rounds.
Julian Erosa
8th UFC Fight (2-5)Erosa originally joined the UFC with a decision win on The Ultimate Fighter back in 2015. However, after getting knocked out early in the second round of his second UFC fight he parted ways with the organization in 2016.
He went on to win six of his next eight fights outside of the UFC, including four KOs and one submission. He then made his way back into the UFC with a R2 KO over Jamall Emmers on DWCS in 2018, but lost his first three fights back in the organization with a R1 KO loss to Devonte Smith, a R3 Decision loss to Grant Dawson and a R3 KO loss to Julio Arce. Following the string of losses, he was once again relegated to fighting outside of the UFC, where he landed a R1 submission win in February 2020.
After getting dumped by the organization twice, Erosa pounced on a third opportunity when a short notice spot opened up against Sean Woodson last June. Agreeing to the fight just the Wednesday before the event, Erosa came in as the biggest underdog on the slate. However, he looked determined to finally prove himself in the UFC and after a rough start, he brought the fight to Woodson for the remainder of the match. After splitting the first two rounds with Dem Bones, Erosa was able to lock up a Brabo Choke in the third round and submit Woodson.
Erosa has fought at 145-155 lb throughout his career. His last fight was at 150 lb Catchweight, but this next one will be at 145 lb, where Erosa has gone 0-3 in the UFC. For what it’s worth, he did knock out Jamall Emmers on DWCS in 2018 at 145 lb, so he’s not entirely dysfunctional at that weight.
Of his 24 career wins, 21 have come early, with 10 KOs and 11 submissions. Half of his eight career losses have also come early, all four by KO.
The UFC didn’t do Erosa any favors upon his 2018 return, pairing him up with Devonte Smith, Grant Dawson and Julio Arce. He looked hittable in his last match against Woodson, but showed he’ll gladly take part in a firefight, which is exactly what his next opponent will be looking for.
UPDATE: Landwehr was the last fighter to weigh in and took forever to do so. He rejoiced when he made weight, and it seems likely he had a tough cut.
"Nate is a savage...taking on a bonafide finisher in Erosa."
-Dana White on Landwehr vs. Erosa
Nate Landwehr
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Landwehr’s last two scheduled fights were both canceled after first Landweher tested positive for COVID in September and then his second opponent, Evloev, tested positive in December.
After getting knocked out in R1 by Herburt Burns in his January 2020 UFC debut, Landwehr bounced back with a decision win in a bloody brawl against Darren Elkins. Elkins actually outlanded Landwehr 121-118, but went 1 for 13 on takedowns and left with substantially less blood than he came with. It did seem like Elkins won the third round, so it was a little surprising to see that two of the judges scored it 30-27 for Landwehr. Then again, when are we not surprised by the scorecards?
While Landwehr’s takedown defense was solid against Elkins (33% career takedown accuracy), that fight was so sloppy the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Also, Elkins seemed to land his first takedown of the match without too much trouble before things got crazy. Burns was also easily able to get Landwehr down on his only takedown attempt and nearly submitted him in their fight, before knocking him out.
Landwehr, which literally translates in German to “Land Defender” is the perfect name for a guy who wants to go to battle every time he steps in the cage. While Landwher is 14-3 as a pro and has won eight of his last nine fights, his last two losses both came early with a R1 KO and a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. However, those are the only two times he’s been finished.
Fight Prediction:
Erosa will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters are coming off victories in high-volume brawls where everyone involved landed over 100 significant strikes. We’re expecting something similar in this matchup as both guys constantly push forward with unabashed confidence. Landwehr has never seen a face he didn’t want to punch, and Erosa has made a career out of getting disrespected. We expect chaotic shenanigans in this one. Erosa has been knocked out in 4 of his 32 pro fights (12.5%), while Landwehr has been finished early in two of his 17 career matches (11.7%). This sets up for the highest paced brawl on the slate, where the winner will likely be decided by who’s chin holds up, where we give the edge to Landwehr. However, there’s a good chance Erosa looks to take the fight to the ground if he feels like he’s losing the striking battle, and he has 11 career wins by submission. While, Landwehr notably defended 12 of Elkins’ 13 takedown attempts in his last fight, he could be in trouble if the fight ends up on the mat. The oddsmakers have this fight set as a dead even pick’em.
Five of Landwehr’s eight career KO wins have come in the second round and he tends to wear on opponents more than knock them out with one punch. Also, Erosa has been knocked out four times in his career. We like the Landwehr “Wins by R2 KO” line at +1200, but his anytime KO line at +340 is obviously a safer option, and there’s still a decent chance this one ends in a decision. Erosa’s R2 Submission line at +1500 and his R3 Submission line at +2100 are potential dart throws if you think he gets it done. Nine of his 11 career submission wins have come after the first round.
DFS Implications:
This sets up for an all out brawl and there’s a good chance the winner puts up a solid score in DFS. With both fighters priced at $8,100 on DraftKings, there’s a great chance one of them ends up in the optimal lineup.
Landwehr offers higher striking volume and has won 8 of his last 9 fights, while Erosa has won just two of his last five. Erosa has also been more vulnerable to being knocked out between the two fighters. While Landwehr doesn’t offer anything in the grappling department, he has demonstrated a solid takedown defense that can help him to score well on FanDuel. Landwehr will likely need a finish to put up a huge score, as he scored a moderate 84 DraftKings points in his last brawling decision win. However, he was still able to put up a huge score on FanDuel with 127 points due to the 12 takedowns he defended. We think there’s a decent chance he gets a mid round knockout and improves upon his last score, but he’s shown he has more upside on FanDuel.
After winning an average scoring decision in his 2015 UFC debut, Erosa lost his next four UFC fights, however there was a large gap in his UFC/DraftKings statsheet that was filled with a 7-2 record outside of the organization. Erosa also made the most of his recent short notice fight, scoring 104 DraftKings points and a whopping 134 on FanDuel as the biggest underdog on the slate. Erosa averages 1.34 takedowns/15 minutes and landed three in his last match, so he has the potential to bolster his score with grappling stats, while Landwehr will be entirely reliant on striking and knockouts (and takedowns defended on FanDuel). Erosa is also the taller fighter with the longer reach. We think you’ll want exposure to both fighters in this one and it’s tough to predict who wins.
John Castaneda
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After losing a decision to Nathaniel Wood in his UFC debut, Castaneda has now lost decisions in three of his last four fights. Castaneda won a decision on DWCS back in 2017, but it wasn’t enough to get him into the UFC. Since that fight, he’s gone 3-2 on the Central American regional scene, including two submission wins, before his recent debut in the UFC.
Castaneda has only been finished once in 22 pro fights, which came in a 2014 R1 KO in his 5th pro fight. Of his 17 pro wins, 12 have come early, with six KOs and six submissions. However, he hasn’t landed a KO since 2017.
He absorbed a massive 131 significant strikes in his UFC debut, while only landing 55 of his own, and was taken down once on three attempts.
Eddie Wineland
15th UFC Fight (6-8)Coming off a mustache curling R1 KO loss to Sean O'Malley, Wineland previously hadn’t been finished since 2014. He’s also lost three of his last four fights and is now 36 years old. Wineland is a one-dimensional power puncher, with 15 of his 24 career wins coming by KO. He also has four submission wins on his record, but those all came in 2006 or prior. He originally went pro all the way back in 2003, when he was just 19 years old. This will be his 40th pro fight.
Wineland has been submitted four times in his career, but all of those came in 2009 or before, with three of the four submission losses occurring in 2003 and 2004 in his first seven pro fights. His 86% takedown defense makes him a tough guy to get to the ground. He’s only been taken down once in his last 13 fights, and zero times in his last five matches. He’s also been knocked out four times in his career, once in 2004 due to injury, then in R2 of a 2013 title fight, next in R1 of a 2014 match, and most recently in the first round again against Sean O’Malley last June. Only 11 of his 40 pro fights have made it to the judges.
Fight Prediction:
Wineland will have a 1” height advantage, but Castaneda will have a 2” reach advantage.
Both of these guys are desperate for a win to avoid losing four out of their last five fights. Wineland is the more powerful striker, while Castaneda has been more active with submissions. Based on Wineland’s stellar takedown defense, this looks like a tough match up for Castaneda, who will likely need to beat Wineland at his own game on the feet if he wants to win this one. We like Wineland to pull off the upset and win this one. With his last four victories coming by KO, we think he has a solid shot to knock Castaneda out, most likely in the second round.
We really like Wineland’s “Win by KO” line at +550 and “Win by R2 KO” line at +2000.
DFS Implications:
Castaneda was outlanded 131-55 in significant strikes in his UFC debut and failed to notch a takedown on his only attempt. He didn’t look completely helpless and stayed aggressive, despite absorbing a massive number of strikes, including 58 kicks to his legs, which should help to keep the pace up in this match. After seeing Sean O’Malley land a highlight reel finish on Wineland, it’s possible he gets overly aggressive looking for a finish of his own and walks into something that could sting a little. If Castaneda does win, it will most likely come by decision. Prior to his recent KO loss to O’Malley, Wineland’s three most recent losses all ended in low-volume decisions. Castaneda’s best hope for a big DFS score seems to be hoping that Wineland is just completely washed and his chin is gone or that he’s able to get him to the mat and submit him. His ITD line is set at +350, implying he has roughly a 19% chance to make that happen.
Wineland has generally put up big DFS scores in his wins, with DraftKings totals of 120, 114, 74 and 105 in his last four victories. His biggest issue has been that his wins have been few and far between. Now it looks like he gets a step down in competition and his opening odds had him near a coin flip at -105. The line has moved slightly away from him as the week went on, but now as a slight +105 underdog he still has an implied 47% chance to win this fight. His last four wins have all come by KO and we think he has a good chance to put up a solid score here. Just keep in mind, Wineland is more or less entirely reliant on a knockout to score well and his ITD line is set at+375, implying he has roughly an 18% chance of landing one.
Drakkar Klose
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Klose was originally scheduled to fight Jai Herbert, but Herbert withdrew and Pena was announced as the replacement 10 days before the event.
Prior to getting knocked out by Beneil Dariush in R2 of his last match, Klose had fought to eight straight decisions (6-1-1) going back to 2016. All four of his career KOs came in his first five pro fights, from 2014 to 2015. The KO loss in his last fight remains the only time he’s ever been finished.
Klose has decent power, but offers average striking and takedown volume. After land seven takedowns in his first three UFC fights, he only has three in his last four. He’s also only landed above 68 significant strikes in one of his UFC fights, where he landed 99.
Luis Pena
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Pena is coming off a R3 Guillotine Submission loss to Khama Worthy, but four of his last six fights have ended in decisions. He won his 2018 UFC debut with a R1 Guillotine Choke, but since then his only finish came in a 2019 R3 KO over a washed up Matt Wiman.
Pena only has 11 pro fights to his name, which he’s won eight of. Six of thos eight wins came early, with two KOs and four submissions. The only time he’s ever been finished early himself came in his last fight when he was submitted in the third round. He will be the much taller fighter here, so it will be interesting to see how effective he can be taking advantage of that.
Fight Prediction:
Pena will have a massive 6” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
Klose’s best hope for a finish is a knockout, as he’s never submitted an opponent, but Pena has never been knocked out. On the other side of things, four of Pena’s six early wins have come by submission, but Klose has never been submitted, and Pena only has one KO since his first pro fight. The oddsmakers have set this as the third most likely fight on the card to end in a decision (-200), which sounds right to us.
This fight looks likely to end in a decision, and Pena has a 38% implied chance to win based on his moneyline. Therefore Pena’s decision line at +340 seems a little too wide.
DFS Implications:
Klose has never scored above 98 DraftKings points, and has only scored above 79 points in two of his five UFC wins. Priced at $9,000/$18, it appears he’ll need an early finish to pay off, likely in the first round. His ITD line is set at +400 (~17%), but his R1 win line is +825, implying just an 8% chance. The only argument for playing Klose that we can see is that he’ll be a low-owned contrarian tournament play. With that said, he looks like an easy fade from our perspective.
Pena has scored 72 and 77 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins, but 106 and 115 points in his finishes. There’s no reason to think that this matchup presents an opportunity to score dramatically better in a decision win, so it looks like Pena will need a finish to be useful in DFS. His ITD line is identical to Klose’s at +400 (17%) but his R1 line is even longer at +875 (~7%). It seems unlikely that Pena gets a finish here, but if he does he’ll most likely end up in the optimal.
Danny Chavez
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Six months removed from his August UFC debut, Chavez destroyed the lead leg of T.J. Brown, while also mixing in high kicks. A quick counter puncher, Chavez appears to rarely push forward unless it’s to finish a wounded opponent.
He notably had three straight R1 KO wins just before joining the UFC. However, iIt's worth pointing out that those wins were against unimpressive opponents. Coming into their fights against Chavez, Dylan Cala was 6-2, Felipe Vargas was 4-0, and Leandro Manhaes Paes was 8-8. Two of those guys looked to be fighting up a weight class after normally fighting at 135 lb.
Prior to those three knockouts, all seven of his career wins had come by decision, as had two of his three career losses. The only time he’s ever been finished was a 2016 R5 Guillotine Choke. He does look to have quick, crisp striking and violent kicks to go along with a solid takedown defense.
Chavez has had a strange fight pattern over the last nine years. He fought twice in 2012 and then didn’t fight at all in either 2013 or 2014. Then he fought twice in 2015 and followed it up with a pair of losses in 2016. Then he didn’t fight at all in 2017 before a pair of wins in 2018. Then he didn’t fight in 2019 before another pair of wins in 2020. He’s opted not to take his normal recovery year in 2021, following a pair of wins in 2020, so we’ll see how he holds up. The last time he skipped his recovery year was 2016 and he lost both his matches.
Jared Gordon
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Gordon defeated Chris Fishgold in a July decision, where he landed a profuse amount of ground strikes in the final minutes of the fight. He ended the fight with 241 total strikes, but just 44 significant. Fishgold went through a tough weight cut/miss going into the fight and appeared to have nothing left in his tank by the third round. Fishgold was coming off a loss going into the fight against Gordon, and has now lost three of his last four fights.
In his previous fight to that, Gordon was knocked out by the #3 Lightweight contender and submission specialist Charles Oliveira 86 seconds into the first round.
Gordon’s last three UFC wins have all come against opponents coming off losses, and his debut win came against Michel Quinones, who was also debuting. Prior to getting knocked out by Oliveira, Gordon defeated Dan Moret in a decision. Moret came into that fight 0-2 in the UFC and had been taken down twice in each of his first two fights. Gordon was also able to take him down twice and land 171 total strikes with prolonged ground and pound. However, he only landed 48 significant strikes. Prior to the win over Moret, Gordon had lost his last two fights, when he was knocked out twice in 2018. The first came against a tough Diego Ferreira who finished Gordon in just 118 seconds. The second was against Joaquim Silva who finished Gordon in the middle of the third round in a more competitive fight.
Making his UFC debut in 2017, Gordon won his first two fights, including a R2 KO over Michel Quinones in his first match with the organization, followed by a decision win over Hacran Dias, who was coming off back-to-back losses.
This will be Gordon’s first UFC fight down at 145 lb. His last fight was supposed to be at 145 lb, but due to Fishgold’s weight cutting issues it was moved to a 149 lb catchweight. Gordon’s 2017 UFC debut was also at 149 catchweight, but his other five UFC fights have all been at 155 lb. Gordon did fight at both 145 lb nad 155 lb before joining the UFC, and had a win over Bill Algeo at 145 lb just before making his UFC debut. A roommate of Belal Muhammad, Gordon seems to embrace the grinder mentality.
UPDATE: Gordon missed weight badly, coming in at 150 lb for this 145 lb match.
Fight Prediction:
Gordon will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This fight will likely come down to Chavez’s takedown defense. Gordon relies on getting his opponents to the ground and grinding out wins with ground and pound. If Chavez can stay on his fight, look for him to win the striking battle here and either win a low-volume decision or knock Gordon out. In his UFC debut, Chavez defended all six of T.J. Brown’s takedown attempts, who previously had no issues getting opponents to the mat. Gordon has shown a pretty suspect chin so far in the UFC, so if Chavez lands something clean he could definitely put him out. We still think the most likely outcome here is for Chavez to win a decision and the oddsmakers agree, installing Chavez as a -140 favorite and setting the decision line on this fight at -155.
Gordon has been knocked out in the first round in 2 of his 3 UFC losses and Chavez knocked out 3 of his last 4 opponents in R1. So the Chavez R1 KO line at +800 is semi-interesting, although we’re not super confident it hits. If Gordon wins this fight, we think it comes in a decision, so you can also consider his decision line at +210.
DFS Implications:
Chavez’s low-volume counter punching fighting style makes it seem like he needs a finish to put up a big DFS score. While he did land three straight R1 knockouts just before joining the UFC, those are the only three finishes of his 11 year pro career. His first seven pro wins all came by decision, as have two of his three career losses. The oddsmakers have set his ITD line at +210, implying roughly a 27% chance he gets a finish. His R1 win line is +500, implying just a 12% chance. One thing Chavez does have going for him is that all four of Gordon’s losses have come by KO. Chavez also showed a solid takedown defense in his debut, defending all six of T.J. Brown’s attempts. For context, Brown had landed 12 combined takedowns in his first two UFC fights and has a 60% career takedown accuracy. Gordon averages 4.3 missed takedown attempts/15 minutes, which is the 5th highest on the slate. Because of that, we think Chavez makes for a much better FanDuel play, than on DraftKings.
Gordon has consistently scored well in his four UFC wins on DraftKings, largely due to the new scoring system. All of his wins have scored 104 or more DraftKings points. All of those wins have included high insignificant striking totals and large amounts of control time. He averaged 172.5 total strikes, 65 significant strikes and 2.75 takedowns in those wins (3 decisions & 1 R2 KO). All three of his UFC losses have been by KO, including two in the first round. If Gordon can’t break Chavez’s so-far-perfect takedown defense, then we don’t see him winning this fight.
Tom Aspinall
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)In his last five fights, the longest anyone has lasted inside the Octagon with big Tom Aspinall is 95 seconds. Here are his last five fight times: 76 sec, 81 sec, 56 sec, 45 sec (UFC debut), 95 sec (last fight). Tom Aspinall is no one to be trifled with, and with five straight first round knockouts he appears unstoppable at the moment. Eight of his nine career wins have come by R1 KO, and his 9th was a R1 Heel Hook submission in his second pro fight. In addition to being able to smash through concrete walls with his bare hands, Aspinall is also notably a BJJ black belt, so don’t sleep on his ground game.
Aspinall finished Jake Collier on the feet just 45 seconds into his UFC debut with a hard knee to the body followed up by a pair of heavy punches. In his second fight he opted to take Baudot to the mat and finish him with heavy ground and pound.
His only two career losses both came in the second round—one where he was disqualified for an Illegal elbow and the other a heel hook submission in his fourth pro fight. Aspinall notably trains with Darren Till and is a sparring partner with Tyson Fury. He switched from MMA to Boxing in 2017, hence the 2.5 year layoff between MMA fights, but ultimately came back in 2019.
One thing to point out is that the UFC has been feeding Aspinall complete cans so far, with inflated Light Heavyweights Jake Collier and Alan Baudot. This will be a big step up in competition for Aspinall, which really says a lot about his past competition considering his next opponent is 42 years old.
Andrei Arlovski
33rd UFC Fight (19-13)Andrei Arlovski fought his first pro fight two days before Tom Aspinall turned six years old. Fast forward almost 22 years later and Arlovski is coming off a pair of 2020 decision wins in his 48th and 49th pro fights, while Aspinall is coming off R1 KOs in his first two UFC appearances. Arlovski has recently embraced the role of spoiler, as he’s stopped the momentum of both surging Tanner Boser and UFC newcomer Philipe Lins in 2020. He was less successful in 2019, when he got knocked out in the first round by Jairzinho Rozenstruik and lost a decision to Augusto Sakai, but he did beat Ben Rothwell in a decision that year.
He struggled in 2018 as well, losing three out of four decisions, before having one of those losses overturned to a No Contest due to a failed drug test. It was much of the same in 2017 as well, where he went 1-2 splitting a pair of decisions and getting knocked out in R1 by Francis Ngannou.
Things were even worse in 2016, where he lost all three of his fights early, including a R1 KO loss to Stipe Miocic, a R2 KO loss to Alistair Overeem and a R3 Submission loss to Josh Barnett. You have to go all the way back to 2015 for his last early win, which came in a R1 KO against Travis Browne. His last six wins have all been by decision. Of his last 11 fights, 10 have gone to the judges. He doesn’t have an early win in his last 16 fights.
Arlovski has been finished early 12 times in his career, which spans all the way back to 1999. Eleven of those have come by knockout, including eight in the first round. The only time he’s ever been submitted came in the third round of his 2016 match against Josh Barnett by Rear-Naked Choke.
Arlovski originally joined the UFC in 2000, but left the organization in 2008, before returning in 2014. He won his first four fights back in 2014 and 2015, including a pair of R1 knockouts, but has since gone 5-9 plus a “No Contest” which was really a decision loss. So in the last five years he only has a 33% win rate, with all five of those wins coming by decision. Five of those 10 losses have come early, with three R1 KOs (Miocic, Ngannou, Rozenstruik), a R2 KO (Overeem) and a R3 Submission (Barnett). Arlovski has really struggled with the top guys in the division, but has been able to take his non-elite opponents to decisions. So the only question is, which category does Aspinall fall into?
Fight Prediction:
Aspinall will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Arlovski has been a gatekeeper lately in the UFC, providing heat checks for up and coming Heavyweights. He notably stopped the momentum of Philipe Lins who was coming off four straight finishes going into his UFC debut and Tanner Boser, who was coming off back-to-back impressive knockouts. Arlovski’s conservative approach and world-renowned status make his opponents really earn victories against him both mentally and physically. Both Rozenstruik and Ngannou were able to knock out Arlovski while moving backwards, so it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in his chin against Aspinall, but Arlovski has been fighting more conservatively lately and seems less inclined to push the action these days. If Aspinall can land something clean to the chin of Arlovski, he should be able to end this one early. However, if he gets caught up in the moment or waits for Arlovski to throw first, this could start slower. We still think there’s a good chance Aspinall gets another R1 knockout, but this is a much tougher spot than his last two fights. It’s also worth comparing Aspinall’s R1 Win line in his last fight, which was -120, to his R1 Win line in this fight of +210. Clearly the oddsmakers agree that it’s a much tougher spot to land another early finish.
Just based on his past results, Aspinall “Wins by R1 KO” at +230 looks decent, but we’re not overly excited about it. If you think there’s a slight chance he could finish this with a submission, you can switch to his generic +210 R1 Win line at only a minor cost. If you really want to get crazy check out the Aspinall “Wins by Submission” line at +1800 or “Wins by R1 Submission” line at +3200. Or if you REALLY want to get crazy bet Arlovski wins by R3 KO at +3200 and hope he tires Aspinall out once things get to deep waters.
DFS Implications:
Aspinall was 44% owned on a massive 15 fight slate when he made his UFC debut with a blank DraftKings statsheet and priced at $8,800 back in July, and shot all the way up to 65% owned in his last fight on a 13 fight card where he was the most expensive fighter on the card at $9,400. We expect him to continue to be one of the most popular plays on the slate here, but this has many of the makings for a letdown spot. Arlovski won the UFC Heavyweight belt when Aspinall was 11 years old, and has decades of experience dealing with dangerous strikers like him. With 10 of Arlovski’s last 11 fights ending in decisions, he’ll certainly make Aspinall earn it here. When you combine the tougher opponent with Aspinall’s high ownership and price, fading him in tournaments starts to look more appealing.
Arlovski only scored 44 and 50 DraftKings points in his last two decision wins and appears much more of a threat to ruin his opponents score, than actually score well himself. While you could argue that he’s in a great leverage spot for tournaments, you should be able to get all the leverage you need in this one simply by fading Aspinall. The one unknown with Aspinall is what his gas tank looks like, as he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than nine minutes. However, Arlovski hasn’t landed an early win in his last 16 UFC fights and generally lacks the takedown and striking volume to score well in a decision. He had one flukey performance against Ben Rothwell back in 2019, but you’re chasing ghosts if you expect a repeat of that here.
Phillip Hawes
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)This fight was originally scheduled for January 16th, but Hawes was forced to withdraw the day of the event after he wasn’t medically cleared and the fight ended up getting pushed back five weeks.
Hawes has been on fire lately, winning his last five fights in the first round. That includes an 18 second KO victory in his October 2020 UFC debut. Hawes is 9-2 as a pro and if you told him judging is part of MMA, he’d have to take your word for it. All 11 of his fights have ended in the first two rounds and his last seven wins have all come in the first.
A ferocious striker, seven of his nine wins have come by KO. However, Hawes’ background is actually in wrestling, where he competed collegiately at Iowa State. He has two submission wins on his record—a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke and a 2014 R1 Armbar.
Both of Hawes’ career losses came in the second round. His first loss was a 2016 Guillotine Choke. He then got knocked out in his next fight via head kick at the hands of current UFC fighter Julian Marquez. That second loss came in his first of two appearances on DWCS. After the loss, Hawes didn’t fight again for almost two years before coming back in mid 2019. Apparently he spent some time traveling the world, competing in grappling matches and training in Thailand. He’s also notably trained with Jon Jones in the past.
"This will be about who can implement their game plan and impose their will."
-Dana White on Hawes vs. Imavov
Nassourdine Imavov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Also 9-2 as a pro and coming off a win in his UFC debut, Imavov enters on a six fight winning streak and also has a history of early finishes. His UFC debut, however, ended in a sloppy decision. Imavov landed an inadvertent headbutt and a vicious knee to the groin in the first round of that fight, which looked to slow his opponent Jordan Williams down from the very beginning. There was also another clash of heads in the third round that Williams took the worst of. Every time Williams shot for a takedown in that fight, Imavov looked for a Guillotine Choke Submission and looked close to completing it at times.
Imavov is seven years younger than Hawes and has never been knocked out. The only time he’s been finished early was a R1 Guillotine Choke submission in his first pro fight back in 2016. His only other pro loss came in a 2017 decision. He has seven R1 wins with three KOs and four submissions. However, two of those R1 submission wins came in his first three pro fights. In his last six wins, he has two KOs, two submissions and two decisions.
Prior to joining the UFC, he wasn’t fighting the toughest competition (or the worst), but we’ve yet to see him finish anyone of UFC caliber. Here are the records coming into his fights of his opponents that he finished on the regional scene: 0-0, 5-3, 3-0, 0-0, 1-2, 6-5, and 9-1.
After his last fight, Imavov said that Williams hits harder than he had expected. Maybe he was just paying him lip service, but if he thinks Williams hits hard, just wait until he’s introduced to Hawes. We don’t think Imavov has faced anyone with this sort of power yet in his career, so it will be interesting to see how his chin holds up.
Fight Prediction:
Imavov will have a 3” height advantage, but Hawes will have a 2” reach advantage.
Hawes definitely looks like the more powerful and explosive fighter. This will just be Imavov’s third pro fight at 185 lb, after he’s spent the majority of his career fighting at 170 lb. Hawes on the other hand has fought his entire career at 185 lb and even fought an exhibition bout at 205 lb against Andrew Sanchez on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016.
Hawes has been a wrecking ball in the first round, but has lost his last two fights that have made it beyond that. His last seven wins have all come in R1. We’ve also never seen what he looks like in the second half of a fight. Based on that unknown alone you could argue that Imavov has a chance if he can survive Hawes’ initial onslaught. With that said, Imavov has been a bit of a bipolar fighter as well, with all of his fights either ending in the first round or going to the judges.
Hawes has a solid shot to win this fight in the first round. It’s far from a lock though, and if the fight slips into the second things get a little dicey. While Hawes has been extremely impressive on offense, he’s looked vulnerable on defense.
Some books have “Hawes Wins by Submission” as high as +2500, which seems way too high considering Hawes was a college wrestler and 2 of his 9 wins have come by submission. Also, Imavov has never been knocked out but has previously been submitted. (UPDATE: The Hawes submission line has dropped to +1700 but you can consider the Hawes R1 Submission line at at +3000). The Imavov Submission line at +550, R1 Win line at +600 and R2 Win line at +900 are also all in play.
DFS Implications:
When this fight was originally scheduled for January 16th, Hawes opened as the -150 favorite and was priced at $8,800/$18, while Imavov was $7,400/$14. The line had moved from -150/+130 to -110/100 by the day of the event when it was suddenly postponed due to a Hawes injury. Now rescheduled five weeks later, the line opened with Hawes just barely favored at -115 and DraftKings priced him accordingly at $8,200. We think the field would have already been excited to play him at $8,800 so now at $8,200 he should be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. That makes Imavov an interesting leverage play in tournaments. At their mid-tier pricing, there’s a very good chance that whoever wins this fight ends up in the optimal lineup.
Hawes seems like a prime candidate to benefit from DraftKings’ new scoring system that gives a bonus for finishes in the first 60 seconds. Based on his scoring upside, Hawes presents a massive amount of value (which is why we expect his ownership to be high). While there’s no guarantee he gets the win, if he does, we think there’s a great chance he ends up in optimal lineups. It makes sense to have a solid amount of exposure to Hawes.
Similar to Hawes, if Imavov wins, there’s a good chance it comes early and at his price he also likely ends up in optimal lineups. He successfully defended all three of Williams’ takedown attempts in his UFC debut, so there’s the possibility that further boosts his FanDuel score if Hawes looks to take this fight to the ground. You’ll want heavy exposure to both sides of this fight.
Chris Daukaus
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Daukaus has thundered his way onto the UFC scene with back-to-back violent first round knockouts. After relieving Parker Porter from consciousness this past August— in what was the UFC debut for each fighter—Daukaus silenced doubters with another R1 knockout, only this time over a previously undefeated Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira.
Daukaus’ weight in each of those fights was a hotly debated topic, as he came in at only 241 lb in his Heavyweight debut and then just 227 lb most recently. Which brings up the age old question of what wins between speed and power and what is the ideal number for a Heavyweight to tip the scales at? Both of Daukaus’ last two opponents weighed in at 265 lb, while he came in well under the limit.
Daukaus’ last seven wins all came by KO, with six of those coming in the first round. He’s only been to one decision in 13 pro fights and all three of his losses came early—two by KO and one by Keylock Submission.
A member of the Philly P.D., don’t let Daukaus’ unimposing physique fool you, he’s a violent human with crisp, powerful striking. After finishing Porter in four and a half minutes of action in his debut, Daukaus took just 45 seconds to expel Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira from the ranks of the undefeated.
While right now Daukaus is still splitting time between the Philly P.D. and the UFC, in a recent interview he talked about potentially switching to training full-time for the UFC beginning in July.
Daukaus trains at a smaller gym with no big names, so it will be interesting to see what his submission defense looks like. No one in the UFC has tested Daukaus on the ground yet or even attempted to get him there, but he is a black belt for what it’s worth. We thought Ferreira would be the first to do that, but the fight didn’t last long enough. Now we’ll see if an older, craftier vet can survive long enough to test Daukaus’ grappling.
Aleksei Oleinik
13th UFC Fight (8-5)Entering his 25th year of professional fighting, Oleinik has an insane 74 pro fights under his suspenders. Andrei Arlovski has been actively fighting for 22 years, and Oleinik has still fought 25 more times than him.
Over his lengthy career, Oleinik has put up an impressive 59-14-1 record with 54 of his wins coming early. He has an insane 46 total submission wins, while just being submitted twice himself. He has eight career knockout wins and losses on his record. Only 9 of his 74 fights have made it to the judges, including just one in his last 10. His last four losses have all been by KO—two in the first round and two in the second.
Fight Prediction:
Daukaus will have a 1” height advantage, but Oleinik will have a 4” reach advantage.
Oleinik has lost three of his last five fights, with his only wins coming against fellow senior citizen Fabricio Werdum and trading places victim Maurice Greene. His last four losses have all come by KO in the first two rounds, playing right into Daukaus’ skillset. Oleinik can’t compete with Daukaus on the feet so his only hope will be to get this fight to the ground quickly and hunt for a submission. We haven’t seen anyone try to take Daukaus down yet, let alone grapple with him on the mat, so that part of his game remains somewhat of a mystery. We think it’s more likely Daukaus gets another KO here but things could get hairy if Oleinik can land a takedown. The most likely outcome is another Daukaus R1 KO, but if Oleinik can land a takedown, he has the potential to finish it with a submission or at least drag the fight into the second round. We don’t see it making it to the third, however, as both of these guys appear to have single digit gas tanks.
This fight likey ends with a Daukaus KO in the first two rounds, with a R1 KO the most likely outcome. However it’s hard to get excited about that line at +175, so you could consider Daukaus “Wins by R2 KO” at +700 and hope Oleinik can survive that long. Or take a shot at Oleinik’s submission line at +240 or his R1 Sub Line at +500 or R2 Sub Line at +900. However, we think there are better plays elsewhere.
DFS Implications:
Daukaus leads the DraftKings slate in FPPF at 134.2 and the field is undefeated at picking up on such things. Priced at just $8,600 and going against a 90 year old man who’s fought 10,161,267 times, expect Daukaus to be heavily owned. Although, after being 30% owned in his debut (following a slight line flip in his favor), Daukaus was only 28% owned in his last fight priced at just $7,000. Maybe the price tag was just so cheap it scared some people off, as he was a +220 underdog in the fight, but we had expected more people to be on him. After back-to-back slate breaking performances, it’s hard to imagine the field not getting on board here. Based on his ownership, price and upside, Daukaus sets up as a core cash play, who if he goes off once again, will likely be essential to winning tournaments as well.
Oleinik is the type of fighter that when he does win it generally scores well. While his last victory came in a decision, his prior 17 all came early. Even his most recent decision win still scored 91 DraftKings points. Priced at just $7,600 on DraftKings, if Oleinik wins this fight, expect to see him in the top lineups. The oddsmakers seem to think he has a solid chance to pull off the upset, setting his moneyline at +155, implying he has a 38% chance to win this fight. That seems high to us. With that said, the eyebrow-raising odds imply Oleinik may have more of a chance than we’re giving him credit for. Whoever wins this fight likely ends up in the optimal lineup, but one way it could end up lower scoring would be if Oleinik is able to control the fight on the ground early on, before Daukaus finishes things late.
Charles Rosa
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Following an April 2017 R3 KO loss to Shane Burgos, Rosa suffered a career threatening neck injury that kept him sidelined until October 2019 when he made his uncertain return but submitted Manny Bermudez in the first round. Bermudez looked to be controlling the fight convincingly, but the BJJ black belt Rosa was able to land a surprise Armbar off his back. Things didn’t go as smoothly in his next fight as he was completely dominated by Bryce Mitchell for 15 minutes on the ground and nearly submitted multiple times. Rosa landed just 5 significant strikes in 15 minutes of “action” in that one.
Rosa bounced back from the demoralizing loss with a split decision win over Kevin Aguilar this past June, in a low-volume snoozer which was fought entirely on the feet. Rosa outlanded Aguilar 69-53 in significant strikes, but neither fighter landed a takedown on three combined attempts.
While Rosa’s last fight was at 155 lb, the rest of his UFC fights have been at 145 lb, where this next one will be. For what it’s worth, Rosa has alternated wins and losses over his last nine fights and is coming off a win. He often utilizes a sideways karate style stance, similar to Stephen Thompson, but far less effective. Half of Rosa’s career submission wins have been by Armbar, all in the first round, and he claims that’s his move.
Rosa has attempted just one takedown, which was unsuccessful, in his last three fights since returning from his neck injury. In contrast, he went 14 for 41 on takedowns in his first five UFC fights, while attempting at least four and landing at least one in every match.
Rosa has never been submitted in his 17 pro fights, and the only person to ever finish him was Shane Burgos who knocked him out in the third round.
Darrick Minner
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)While this is just Minner’s third UFC fight, 5 of his 11 career losses were against fighters who are currently in the UFC and another came against a former UFC fighter. He was submitted by grueling wrestler Grant Dawson in the second round of his short notice UFC debut via Rear-Naked Choke last February, but bounced back with a 52 second R1 Guillotine Choke Submission win over heavily favored UFC newcomer T.J. Laramie in his last match.
Of his 23 early career wins, 22 have come by submission, including 11 by Guillotine Choke with 10 of those coming in the first round. He also has five wins by Rear-Naked Choke, with four in R1, and two R1 Armbar victories. His other four submission wins were a R1 Kneebar, a pair of R1 Triangle Chokes and a R1 Shoulder Choke. He’s truly a submit or get submitted fighter, who’s only been to the third round three times in 36 pro fights, with all three of those ending in decisions.
Here are Minner’s 11 career losses: 2020 R2 Rear-Naked Choke (UFC debut), 2019 R1 Triangle Armbar, 2018 R2 KO, 2018 R2 Armbar, 2017 R1 Triangle Armbar, 2017 Decision, 2016 R2 Brabo Choke, 2014 R2 KO, 2014 R1 Armbar, 2013 R1 Triangle Choke and 2012 R1 Guillotine Choke. So to sum that up, he’s been knocked out twice and submitted eight times. Four of his eight submission losses came by Armbar, including three in the first round. All 10 of his early losses came in the first 10 minutes, half of them in the first round.
Miner’s last 13 fights have all ended in the first two rounds. He fought at 135 lb early in his pro career, but has fought at 145 lb and 155 lb exclusively since 2017.
Minner will relentlessly pursue submissions, throwing one Guillotine up after another and transitioning to Armbars in between.
Fight Prediction:
Rosa will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach.
The matchmakers had devious intentions when they made this fight between a Guillotine specialist who’s vulnerable to Armbars, going up against an Armbar specialist who previously suffered a career-threatening neck injury.
While they’re both submission specialists, they’re fighting styles and pace are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Minner shoots out of the gates like a greyhound, looking to end fights as quickly as possible, with seven career wins in under a minute. While Rosa on the other hand, looks to methodically go after his opponents with 7 of his 8 UFC fights making it to a third round. Amazingly, Rosa’s last fight lasted longer than Minner’s previous six fights combined.
We expect Rosa to be on the defense early on in this fight, while Minner does what he always does and looks for an early finish at a furious pace. If Rosa can survive the initial onslaught of Minner, his odds should improve dramatically once this hits the second half of the first round and into round two. Rosa is a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted so this will be a real test for Minner. We think Minner either ends it in the first couple minutes or tires himself out and likely succumbs to a Rosa submission. The other potential outcome is that Rosa just totally fails to capitalize and this ends in a disappointing decision win for him, but we think that’s less likely as Minner should force his hand.
A Minner R1 submission win is always in play, and +1000 seems far too wide. Rosa “Wins by R2 Submission” at +650 is also interesting.
DFS Implications:
This is a bit of a conundrum for DFS at first glance. On one side we have Rosa, who generally makes for low scoring DFS matches, and on the other side, we have Minner who nearly always makes for high scoring DFS fights.
Despite generally not scoring well in DFS, Rosa was 29% owned the last time we saw him as a +156 ($7,800) underdog, but that was also on a 10 fight slate. Now priced up, coming off a low scoring win, and on a massive 14 fight slate with tons of great options to choose from, we expect his ownership to be significantly lower. Even in his lone R1 finish in the UFC, he scored just 93 DraftKings points. Every other UFC fight he’s been part of has made it to the third round, and he’s only scored above 74 points twice (93 & 95). He scored just 58 points in his most recent decision win, coming nowhere close to a usable score. After landing 12 takedowns in his first three UFC fights, Rosa has just two in his last five fights, and zero in his last three matches since he returned from the neck injury. His lack of takedowns and low-volume striking make him entirely reliant on an early finish to score decently. The only thing Rosa has going for him is that he’s paired up against a submission or bust specialist who’s been finished in 10 of his 11 pro losses—including eight by submission. At $8,800 on DraftKings and having never topped 95 points, Rosa should be pretty low owned, giving him some intrigue as a contrarian tournament play in a juicy matchup. This is likely the one time we’re actually interested in playing Rosa and it’s almost entirely based on his ownership and opponent.
Minner is coming off an impressive R1 Guillotine Submission win where he was just 16% owned on DraftKings at $7,000 as a +285 underdog on a 14 fight slate. With the new scoring, that would have been good for 122 points with the help of the quick win bonus. We expect those results will surely drive up his ownership, likely beyond his actual chances of getting another R1 finish in this next fight. Minner offers undeniable upside, especially given his price, but many people may overlook the upside he also offers his opponents. Whenever Minner fights, you want to have exposure to both sides of the match.
Ketlen Vieira
7th UFC Fight (5-1)This fight was originally booked for August 1st, 2020, and then pushed back to August 8th, but then Vieira withdrew and Kunitskaya ended up taking on Julija Stoliarenko instead. Now rebooked 6 months later, these women have had ample time to prepare for one another.
Bouncing back from her first career loss with a decision win over Sijara Eubanks this past September, Vieira was previously knocked out by Irene Aldana at the end of the first round in their 2019 match. Prior to the loss, Vieira had won her first 10 pro fights, with six early finishes (2 KOs & 4 Submission). However, five of those finishes came in the first five fights of her career, while she only has one early victory in her last six wins. Those first five finishes came against opponents who entered with invisible records of: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, and 0-0. Two of those faux pros never even put on the gloves again, and another fought just once more in another losing effort. With 4 of her 5 UFC wins ending in decisions, she generally doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to finish fights early at this level.
UPDATE: Vieira missed weight, coming in at 138lb for this fight.
Yana Kunitskaya
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Kunitskaya is coming off a smothering decision win over armbar specialist Julija Stoliarenko, where she spent the majority of the fight pushing Stoliarenko up against the cage. All three of Kunitskaya’s UFC wins have come by decision, while both of her losses have been by KO. She did have eight finishes early in her career, but those all came in 2016 or before, and six of them were in her first seven pro fights against far less experienced opponents.
Kunitskaya’s last four losses have all come early. She was most recently knocked out by Aspen Ladd in the beginning of the third round in their 2019 fight. Before that, Kunitskaya suffered a R1 KO loss in her 2018 UFC debut against Cristiane Justino. A year prior to joining the UFC, she was submitted in the second round via Rear-Naked Choke, and in 2016 she was submitted in the first round via Armbar. The last time Kunitskaya finished an opponent early was in 2016 when she knocked out Wu Yanan in the second round, before either of them were in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Vieira will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters have a 68” reach.
Kunitskaya’s game is based around controlling her opponents but now she’s going up against a linebacker in Ketlen Vieira. We think Kunitskaya will likely have a tougher time overpowering Vieira the way she has some of her past opponents. This could end up turning into a position battle with a decent amount of the striking coming out of the clinch. We think Vieira ends up winning a decision here, but Kunitskaya has been finished in her last four losses so there’s definitely a decent chance for Vieira to get a finish.
DFS Implications:
Considering four of Vieira’s five UFC wins have ended in decisions, and even in her one UFC R2 submission win she still scored just 89 DraftKings points, she’ll likely need a R1 finish here to hit value. She’s never landed more than 71 significant strikes in any of her six UFC fights, but does average 2.02 takedowns/15 minutes. One reason for optimism with Vieira is that four of Kunitskaya’s five career losses have come early—two by KO and two by submission. With a 92% takedown defense, Vieira has the potential to bolster her FanDuel score some with takedowns defended going against an opponent who averages 3.8 takedowns attempted/15 minutes with just a 53% success rate. However, priced as the second most expensive fighter on both sites, it’s hard to get excited about playing Vieira.
Kunitskaya has been a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system, as she’s landed a large amount of control time and strikes that don’t register as significant. Kunitskaya averages 55% control time, which for context is more than Kamaru Usman. She was able to bully her last opponent up against the fence for almost the entire match, but that seems less likely to happen against someone as powerful as Vieira in this next match. We still think Kunitskaya is a much better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but this looks like a really tough matchup for her and we’re not overly excited about playing her. Coming off a 109 point DraftKings performance, and with another 119 point total on her score sheet, we think Kunitskaya could end up garnishing a little more DraftKings ownership than you might expect or she deserves.
Curtis Blaydes
13th UFC Fight (9-2, NC)Coming off his fourth win in a row and second straight main event win, Blaydes’ made it past the third round for the first time in his career and looked absolutely exhausted by the time the championship rounds rolled around. However, he was able to hang on to win a decision over Alexander Volkov, in a dominating wrestling performance where set the Heavyweight record for takedowns landed at 14, on 25 attempts, easily surpassing the previous record of 11. So it’s no wonder why both of the fighters were gassed by the later rounds.
Blaydes tends to wear on opponents, and has zero R1 finishes in his 10 UFC wins. Well technically nine UFC wins, as one was later overturned to a “No Contest” when he tested positive for THC. Of those 10 wins (ignoring the fact that one was overturned to a NC later), he has six KO’s and four decision victories. Five of those KO’s came in R2 and one came in R3. The number of R2 KO’s stands out for predicting the outcome of this upcoming match, especially since three of Lewis' five UFC losses have also come in R2—two of those were by KO.
The only two losses of his career were both against Francis Ngannou, with the first coming by R2 “KO” in Blaydes’ 2016 UFC debut—this was really a doctor’s stoppage in between the 2nd and 3rd rounds because Blaydes’ eye was swollen shut. The second loss came in a 2018 rematch against Ngannou, where he knocked out Blaydes 45 seconds into the first round. Ngannou stuffed Blayde’s two takedown attempts in that fight before knocking him down and finishing him. That’s the obvious way you defeat Blaydes, but it’s easier said than done.
Blaydes only fought five times professionally before joining the UFC and won all five by KO. His only two career R1 KO’s came in his first two pro fights, both in 2014, against a lower level of competition in the Xtreme Fighting Organization.
Blayde’s is a rare wrestling Heavyweight, which presents a mismatch for the majority of his opponents. With zero submission attempts, let alone wins, Blayde’s is not a submission threat on the ground. His goal is to get opponents down and then smash them with punches and heavy elbows.
Derrick Lewis
21st UFC Fight (15-5)Coming off his first early win in his last five fights, the 35-year-old Lewis has now won three in a row but his previous two wins both came in extremely low volume decisions. Prior to the three wins, he had been finished in back to back fights in the second round, a 2019 KO against Junior Dos Santos and a 2018 Rear-Naked Choke Submission against Daniel Cormier.
Earlier in his career he was known as a more exciting knockout specialist with 13 of his first 15 UFC fights ending in KO’s, with him winning 10 of those. And while five of his first eight UFC fights ended in R1, none of his last 12 have ended before the second round. And eight of those 12 have made it to a third round. Despite being involved in six UFC main events, he’s never seen the fifth round and only made it past the third twice.
In his last fight, Lewis was able to survive the smothering submission attempts of Alexey Oleynik over the course of the first five minutes. After allowing Oleynik to gas himself out, Lewis was able to quickly finish him early in the second round. While Oleynik is similar to Blaydes in the sense they both want to take fights to the ground, they’re styles couldn’t be much more different once they get there. Oleynik is a submission specialist, while Blaydes is purely looking to end opponents with his ground and pound.
While Lewis hasn’t lost in the first round since 2014, Blaydes hasn’t finished anyone in the first round since 2014 (prior to joining the UFC). On the flip side, Lewis hasn’t knocked anyone out in R1 since 2016 and Blaydes’ sole R1 loss came against Francis Ngannou in 2018. All we’re getting at is that it seems unlikely this one ends in the first five minutes.
Blaydes vs. Lewis Fight Prediction:
Lewis’ sole path to victory is staying on his feet and landing a KO shot on Blaydes. The only person to accomplish such a feat against Blaydes is Francis Ngannou—who did so twice. While some people may point to the fact that Lewis actually defeated Ngannou in a 2018 decision as a reason for optimism, we’re not buying into that. Others may look at how Lewis just defeated a grappler in Oleynik, but the 43-year-old Oleynik wore himself out trying to submit Lewis in R1, and had nothing left by R2. Lewis’ 52% takedown defense is unlikely to stop Blaydes from getting this fight to the ground. We like Blaydes to drain Lewis’ gas tank in R1 before finishing him with elbows in R2.
With five of Blaydes’ six UFC KO’s coming in R2 and three of Lewis’ last four UFC losses also coming in R2, the Blaydes R2 KO win line at +950 is our favorite prop bet here. The R3 KO line at +1200 is also interesting (UPDATE: These lines have dropped all the way down to +600 and +1000 respectively).
DFS Implications:
In his last 10 fights, Blaydes has 52 takedowns. That’s even more impressive when you look at the fact that in three of those fights he didn’t land a single takedown. So in his last seven fights where he did land a takedown, he averaged 7.42 takedowns per fight. He landed a whopping 14 takedowns in his most recent match, where he dominated Volkov on the ground for the entire fight and ended up scoring 173 DraftKings points and 148 points on FanDuel. This fight seems less likely to go the distance and we think a R2 or R3 KO are the most likely outcomes. In his past R2/R3 KO wins, Blaydes has DraftKings scores of 82 (R2 KO with no takedowns), 120, 99 (R3 KO), and 121, which is good for an average of 105.5 points. We think the most likely outcome here is that Blaydes lands a pair of takedowns, seven minutes of control, and 30 or so significant strikes with another 30 total strikes, before finishing Lewis in the second round. That would be good for 105 points on FanDuel and 109 points on DraftKings. On a slate this large that’s extremely unlikely to be the highest score on either site, but has the potential to be useful if it can outscore most of the other expensive plays.
The only way Lewis scores well here for DFS will be if he knocks out Blaydes. So far in his pro career, the only man to ever knock out Blaydes is Francis Ngannou, who did so twice, first in Blaydes’ 2016 UFC debut and then again in R1 of their 2018 rematch. Lewis did notably beat Ngannou in a 2018 decision, for what it’s worth, and is coming off a R2 KO win over Alexey Oleynik, but we think it’s unlikely he finishes Blaydes here. The oddsmakers are giving Lewis about an 18% chance to finish Blaydes, while Blaydes’ chances of finishing Lewis early are roughly 56%. The only argument for playing Lewis appears to be his low ownership.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma