The Sheet

Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.

Fight Day Scratches: None

Fighter Notes:

Fight #11

Nick Maximov

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Extending his perfect MMA record to 8-0 with a pair of wrestling-heavy decision wins in his first two UFC fights, Maximov has landed 15 takedowns on 31 attempts in those recent two matches. He punched his ticket to the UFC in a bizarre DWCS match where he took on a Heavyweight who weighed 54 lb more than him. Maximov was still able to get the fight to the ground and control his much larger opponent to grind out a decision win.

In his last fight, Maximov was able to take Punahele Soriano down 11 times on 16 attempts, after Soriano had previously never been taken down in the UFC. That fight played out almost exclusively as a wrestling match, with Soriano doing a good job of remaining off his back and fighting the efforts of Maximov but still technically getting taken down 11 times on relentless chain wrestling from Maximov. It couldn't have been an easy day for the fight statistician, and there were probably times where they had to ask, “Was that one takedown or three?” In addition to his 11 takedowns, Maximov finished with nearly nine minutes of control time, while Soriano led in significant strikes 45-29 and in total strikes 74-60. Despite Maximov controlling nearly the entire fight, one judge actually ruled it in favor of Soriano and the fight ended in a split-decision. That was the co-main event on that card, but apparently the schedule makers at the UFC were so disgusted by the boring performance that they made Maximov open this next card.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Maximov has two wins by TKO, three by submission, and three decisions. After his first five pro wins all came in the first two rounds, including three in round one, Maximov has now fought to three straight decisions.

Overall, Maximov is a relentless wrestler, but doesn’t offer much in terms of striking. A former college wrestler, he trains out of the Nick Diaz Academy and has shown the ability to go 15 grueling minutes on the mat. Now he’ll square off with another wrestler, who’s also 2-0 in the UFC.

Andre Petroski

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Petroski has had one of the easiest starts to a career in UFC history outside of maybe Mickey Gall. He’s faced two guys that have absolutely zero business being on the UFC roster, after Petroski got submitted on The Ultimate Fighter by Bryan Battle.

In his last fight, Petroski took on Yaozong Hu, who came in 0-2 in the UFC and hadn’t fought in three years. Petroski looked close to locking up a mounted guillotine a minute into the fight, but was unable to complete it. Nevertheless, he was able to control most of the fight on the mat as he finished with four takedowns landed on eight attempts and nearly 10 minutes of control time. He also led in significant strikes 72-25 and in total strikes 79-27 on his way to finishing the fight with a submission late in the third round.

Now 7-1 as a pro, Petroski has four wins by KO and three by submission. His only official career loss came in a 2020 R2 TKO, but he was also submitted in the second round on The Ultimate Fighter, although those fights are technically counted as exhibition matches so it doesn’t show up on his official record. Petroski has yet to see the judges in his career.

Overall, Petroski is a one-dimensional wrestler, who has yet to prove he can remain competitive against actual UFC level talent. He’s shown cardio issues in the past, although he did land a pair of third round finishes in his last two fights. Just keep in mind neither of those opponents were making Petroski wrestle defensively.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’0” but Maximov will have a 3” reach advantage.

This sets up as a wrestling match between two fighters who haven’t shown much desire to keep fights standing. Petroski has been the more active striker of the two, but Maximov has been the more impressive wrestler and has faced significantly tougher competition so far in the UFC. We expect Maximov’s smothering approach to wear Petroski out by the middle of the fight, increasing the chances he lands a late finish. The most likely scenario is still that he grinds out a decision win, but either way we like Maximov to win this fight.

Our favorite bet here is “Maximov Win & Over 1.5 Rounds” at -175.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Maximov is an undefeated one-dimensional wrestler, which makes him a better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. He’s landed 15 takedowns on 31 attempts in his last two fights, but doesn’t add much in terms of striking. He landed 11 takedowns in his last fight, against an opponent in Punahele Soriano who had never been taken down in the UFC and was a former college wrestler. That takedown explosion was good for 124 points on DraftKings and 108 points on FanDuel. After his first five pro fights all ended in the opening two rounds, Maximov is now coming off three straight decision victories, and he’s generally only dangerous when he’s looking for rear-naked chokes. Maximov will take on another wrestler here, but he should still have the grappling advantage. Maximov will either need a finish or another dominating wrestling performance to return value as the most expensive fighter on the slate, but both of those are pretty likely in this spot. Petroski has shown questionable cardio and there’s a good chance Maximov can wear him down with wrestling early, making a late finish more likely. The odds imply Maximov has a 75% chance to win, a 36% chance to get a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Petroski could not have asked for an easier start to his UFC career as he faced two opponents that have no business in the UFC. This will be the first test of Petroski’s career and we don’t see it ending well for him. He scored 106 and 118 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, and as the cheapest fighter on the slate we expect a decent portion of the field to take the bait and chase those numbers. Of course anything can happen in a fight, but this matchup is exponentially tougher than Petroski’s last two. He’ll likely need a finish in the first 7-8 minutes before he gasses out to win this fight and the odds imply he has a 25% chance to win, an 11% chance it comes early, and a 4% chance he gets a first round finish.

---

Fight #10

Tatsuro Taira

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

This fight had been scheduled to take place two weeks ago, but Candelario pulled out the day of the event, citing an illness.

Making his UFC debut at just 22 years old, undefeated Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira turned pro in August 2018 when he was just 18 years old. He’s spent his entire career fighting on the Japanese regional scene and he hasn’t faced the most diverse set of opponents, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the level of competition in the UFC.

Taira holds a perfect 10-0 record, with eight of his wins coming early, including three TKOs and five submissions to go along with two decision wins. One of those decisions came in a two-round fight that actually took place down at 115 lb, which is something you rarely see in men’s professional MMA. The only time Taira has been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes came in a 2020 three-round decision that took place at 135 lb. Since then he’s submitted three straight opponents in the first round, and all five of his career submission wins have ended in round one. Two of his three TKO wins also came in round one, with the other ending 19 seconds into round two. Four of his last five fights have been at 129 lb or 135 lb, but half of his career has taken place at 125 lb. Interestingly, his only 125 lb fight in his last five came in his second most recent match when he won the Shooto Flyweight belt with a late first round submission.

In his most recent match, Taira patiently picked his spots from the outside, largely relying on leg kicks early on, which is how he approaches most fights. Late in the first round, he landed a series of strikes that staggered his opponent, at which point Taira immediately took his back and choked him out. He showed zero interest in looking for ground and pound and went straight for his opponent’s neck once he had him hurt. All five of his career submission wins have come by some form of choke.

Taira has crisp leg strikes and looks to be a dangerous grappler, but his level of experience remains somewhat of a question mark as he prepares to make his debut at such a young age. He’s never fought outside of Japan before so it’s hard to know how he’ll adjust to fighting in Las Vegas for the first time. It’s also hard to know how his cardio will look later in fights, as he’s only been in two matches that have lasted longer than six minutes and has only seen the third round once. He’ll now face an older opponent who’s never been finished in his career.

Carlos Candelario

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Candelario is coming off his first career loss in a split-decision on DWCS in August 2021 against Victor Altamirano, who recently lost a decision in his UFC debut. That loss came just a few weeks after Candelario won a decision in early August 2021, which was his first time fighting in four years following a close August 2017 decision win in his first trip on DWCS. He unfortunately tore his ACL in that victory which began his extended layoff. After briefly retiring during his lengthy recovery, Candelario finally decided to give it another shot in 2021, almost four years to the day from his win on DWCS. In a fight that took place up at 135 lb, opposed to 125 lb where both of his DWCS matches took place, Candelario won a decision against an undersized and struggling opponent in Miguel Restrepo, who was also coming off a three year layoff of his own and has now lost five of his last six fights. That was actually the second time those two squared off after Candelario submitted Restrepo in the second round of a 2017 match. After five of his first six career wins came early, Candelario has now fought to three straight decisions and hasn’t finished an opponent since 2017.

Now 8-1 as a pro, Candelario has two wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. His only career loss came in his recent split decision on DWCS. All five of his finishes occurred in the first halves of fights, with four in round one and the other early in round two. He has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb as well as a few Catchweight fights in the past. Five of his fights have been at 125 lb, with three of those going the distance (2-1). Two have been at 135 lb, with one decision and a first round submission win. The remaining two were a 2017 130 lb Catchweight R2 submission win and a 2017 139 lb Catchweight R1 KO win. Only two of his five finishes came against opponents with winning records and he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition.

In his recent split-decision loss, Candelario started strong in the fight, landing three of his four takedown attempts in the first round, while also leading 36-19 in significant strikes in the first five minutes. Candelario continued to control the fight for most of the second round, but began slowing down late in the round. He then really appeared to gas out in round three where he basically did nothing for the final five minutes. In fairness to Candelario, he had fought just a few weeks earlier and hadn’t had much time to prepare. It still appeared that Candelario had done enough in the first two rounds to win the fight, but two of the judges disagreed and he ended up losing a split-decision. The fight ended with Candelario behind in significant strikes 100-73 and in total strikes 178-123, but that was largely due to the third round where Altamirano led in significant strikes 54-14 and in total strikes 64-17. Altamirano landed 4 of his 8 takedown attempts, while Candelario landed 5 of his 16 attempts. Candelario finished ahead in control time 5:14-2:03.

Candelario is a former golden gloves champion and has pretty good boxing with decent power in his hands. He also notably attempted 16 takedowns in his most recent fight, although he only landed five of those. He has a tendency to come on strong but fade later in fights and has never finished anybody beyond the midway mark of round two.

Fight Prediction:

Candelario will have a 1” height advantage, but Taira will have a 2” reach advantage.

With just two fights since 2017, Candelario’s inactivity is concerning as he prepares to make his UFC debut against an opponent who just turned pro in 2018, a year after Candelario’s first appearance on DWCS. While Taira has won all 10 of his fights in his brief three and a half year pro career, Candelario is just 1-1 in a pair of decisions since 2017. Candelario may be the better boxer, but Taira is the superior grappler and also appears to have the kicking advantage. Taira likes to keep fights at kicking range and engage in the clinch to look for takedowns when things get tighter, so Candelario may have trouble finding his striking range in this matchup. While Taira has never lost a fight, Candelario’s only defeat came in his recent split-decision loss, so both fighters have been durable up to this point in their careers. Candelario got taken down 8 times on 15 attempts the first time he went on DWCS and 4 times on 8 attempts most recently, which doesn’t bode well for his chances of keeping this fight standing. While Candelario has three submission wins on his record, he hasn’t looked especially dangerous as a grappler and his background is in boxing. He’ll want to make this a striking battle to have a chance to pull off the upset and he runs the risk of getting submitted if it hits the mat. With both guys making their respective UFC debuts, this remains a high-variance spot and neither one of them have ever landed a finish beyond the midway mark of round two. In a pure striking battle we could see it going either way, but Taira’s grappling gives him the edge and we like him to either land an early submission or win a decision through a mix of patient striking and grappling.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +165.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Taira is a patient striker on the feet, which isn’t great for DFS, but he’s an aggressive grappler on the mat and has landed three straight first round submissions. He’s still just 22 years old and has never fought outside of Japan, so it will be interesting to see if the moment is too big for him as he prepares to make his UFC debut against an opponent who’s also debuting but is eight years older than him. Candelario was taken down 12 times on 23 attempts in his two appearances on DWCS, which is encouraging for Taira’s chances of getting this fight to the mat. However, Candelario has just one career loss and has never been finished. Taira has only been past the second round once in his career, and that came in a slower paced fight, so it’s hard to know what his cardio will look like down the stretch, but Candelario has faded late in fights in the past. Based on his low striking output and high price tag, Taira likely needs a finish to return value, but there’s always a slight chance he could put on a dominating grappling performance and still score well in a decision. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Candelario notably landed five takedowns on 16 attempts in his recent split-decision loss on DWCS, but Taira is a dangerous grappler so it will be risky for Candelario to spam takedowns here. We haven’t seen Candelario land enough significant strikes in any of his fights to score well in a decision off striking alone, so he’ll either need a finish or a mix of striking and grappling in a decision win to be useful in DFS. With both of these two fighters making their UFC debuts, this is a high variance spot with a wider range of outcomes, which is reason enough to have some exposure to both sides, but it’s hard to be overly confident in either guy scoring well as neither of them have ever been finished in their careers. Candelario has only fought twice since 2017 after he took four years off following an ACL tear, and the last time he finished an opponent was in 2017 just before going on DWCS for the first time. He’s also never landed a finish beyond the midway mark of round two and looked terrible in the third round of his last fight. The odds imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 14% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

---

Fight #9

Virna Jandiroba

7th UFC Fight (3-3)

Looking to bounce back from her third decision loss in her last six fights, Jandiroba has struggled with the judges in the UFC but has landed finishes in all three of her UFC wins. All three of those finishes came in the opening two rounds.

In her recent decision loss to Amanda Ribas, Jandiroba was able to get Ribas down once in the first round and control her for three minutes before the ref curiously stood them up with 22 seconds remaining. That actually worked out for Jandiroba, as she dropped Ribas with a big right hand just moments later and clearly won the round. Ribas took over from that point on as she controlled both the striking and grappling exchanges for the remainder of the fight. Ribas landed over twice as many strikes as Jandiroba in both rounds two and three, while landing a takedown and stuffing all five of Jandiroba’s attempts in the later rounds. Ribas finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 88-50 and in total strikes 124-119. Both fighters landed one takedown, Ribas on five attempts and Jandiroba on eight.

Now 17-3 as a pro, Jandiroba is a submission or bust fighter with 13 of her 17 wins coming by submission. She does have one TKO win on her record, but it came in a post round two doctor stoppage after Jandiroba broke Kanako Murata’s arm in an armbar, but since the fight wasn’t initially stopped it went down as a TKO. She also has three decision wins, but those all came prior to joining the UFC. All three of her career losses have come in UFC decisions against high-level grapplers in Amanda Ribas, Mackenzie Dern, and Carla Esparza.

Jandiroba came into the UFC in 2019 as a scrawny one-dimensional grappler, but has added a lot of muscle and improved her striking some in recent years. She’s still not a great striker by any means, but she’s no longer entirely helpless on the feet. As a high-level BJJ black belt, her strength is still clearly her grappling, but she can at least set up her takedowns with striking now. Prior to joining the UFC, Jandiroba won 14 straight fights, with 11 of those coming by submission. Her last 12 finishes have all come in the first two rounds and she’s the most dangerous in round one.

Angela Hill

20th UFC Fight (8-11)

Hill is coming off yet another close split-decision loss and has now gone the distance in six straight fights. She’s lost four of her last five, with three of those decision losses being split. She’s been to four split decisions since 2018 and has lost all four of them.

In her recent split decision loss to Amanda Lemos, Hill came close to getting knocked out in the first round when Lemos landed a kick up the middle to Hill’s chin a minute into the fight. However, Hill was able to recover off her back as the next two minutes remained on the mat. Hill was able to land a big right hand later in the round, but Lemos appeared to recover quickly. The biggest moment of the round was clearly the front kick from Lemos, which seemed to win her the round. Hill did better in round two, as she was able to both outland Lemos and control her for periods of time along the fence. After splitting the first two rounds, but appearing to slow down in round two, Lemos found her second wind to some extent in round three and landed another big front kick early in the round. Hill landed a takedown soon after, but Lemos refused to accept bottom position and quickly worked her way to the fence and back to her feet. Hill continued to look for takedowns, but Lemos was able to fight through those attempts and continued to throw heavy shots. Hill partially landed a spinning elbow in the final 30 seconds, but it appeared to land on the shoulder area of Lemos and not cause much damage. Overall the third round was close, but two of the three judges felt that Lemos had done enough and awarded her the win. The fight was so close it could have gone either way, and it was one of Hill’s better performances. Lemos narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 50-48, while Hill slightly led in total strikes 74-68. Hill landed 1 of her 7 takedown attempts, while Lemos missed on all three of her attempts.

Now 13-11 as a pro, Hill has five wins by KO and eight by decision. Three of those five KO wins came in her first six pro fights, outside of the UFC. While she’s never been knocked out, she’s been submitted twice in the first round, and has nine decision losses. Fifteen of her 19 UFC fights have gone the distance, with the exceptions being a 2015 R1 submission loss, a 2019 R1 submission loss, a 2019 R3 TKO win by doctor’s stoppage, and a 2020 R2 TKO win over Hannah Cifers.

Overall, Hill has always been a solid striker, although she’s not much of a finishing threat and relies more on volume. To her credit, she’s been improving her grappling in recent years. In her first 16 UFC fights, Hill landed just six takedowns, while in her last three fights she’s landed four. Outside of landing a random flukey stoppage, Hill is still fighting to win close decisions, and just to reiterate, she’s lost the last four split decisions she’s been to.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’3” with a 64” reach, but Jandiroba is four years younger than Hill.

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Angela Hill getting screwed on split decisions. That makes it tough to pick Hill to win in general as she’s not really any sort of finishing threat and she’s habitually involved in close decisions. While we mentioned Hill’s grappling has improved, she’s still been vulnerable to getting submitted in the past, which is not what you want going against a dangerous submission specialist like Jandiroba. There are only two ways we see this fight playing out, either with a Jandiroba submission or in a close decision, that’s likely split. While Hill will have the striking advantage as long as she can keep the fight standing, we’re still siding with Jandiroba here to either land a submission in the first two rounds or win a split-decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +425.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Jandiroba has shown a consistently high floor when she wins, which is easy to do when all of your wins come early. She’s scored 86, 101 and 97 DraftKings points with a pair of submissions and a TKO, all in the first two rounds. She’s yet to really score well in a decision, with totals of 54, 39, and 48 DraftKings points in her three decision losses, which would still be good for just 84, 69, and 78 points had the decisions gone her way. Jandiroba seems more willing to stand and trade these days, so she’s more likely to pad her scores with striking now than when she originally joined the UFC. While Hill’s uptempo striking should force Jandiroba to throw more volume, Jandiroba is still a submission or bust play in DFS. The odds imply she has a 62% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

It’s generally hard to get excited about playing Hill in DFS as she’s only scored above 86 DraftKings points once in her last 18 fights and has lost four of her last five matches. One thing she has going for her here is that she’s priced as the underdog on a smaller slate, so there’s always the chance she could serve as a value play in tournaments even without a huge score if only a couple of underdogs on the slate end up winning. Working against Hill in this spot, Jandiroba should be looking to grapple, which will make it tougher for Hill to put up a huge striking number and it’s unlikely that Hill will boost her score with takedowns. Overall, the best thing Hill has going for her in tournaments is her low ownership and she’ll need something flukey to happen to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply she has a 38% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in the first round.

---

Fight #8

Michael Johnson

25th UFC Fight (11-13)

Fifteen months removed from a February 2021 decision loss to Clay Guida, Johnson is on a four fight skid and has gone just 3-9 in his last 12. Somehow two of those wins have come Dustin Poirier and Andre Fili and he also has wins over Edson Barboza in 2015 and Tony Ferguson in 2012. Truly one of the more perplexing careers. Johnson’s last win was all the way back in 2018 and you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank. Five of his last seven losses have come early, with three submissions and two KOs. All five of those early losses came in the later round, with three ending in round two and two in round three. While the majority of his recent losses have come early, his last two wins both went the distance and four of his last six fights have actually ended with the judges. That last time he landed a finish was in 2016 when he knocked Dustin Poirier out in 95 seconds. That was also the last time one of Johnson’s fights ended in the first round.

In his last fight, Johnson spent most of the match defending takedowns and submission attempts. Guida took Johnson down three times on seven attempts with nearly seven minutes of control time, while Johnson came out slightly ahead 58-49 in significant strikes and 70-65 in total strikes.

Now 19-17 as a pro, Johnson has eight wins by KO, two by submission, and nine decisions. While 10 of his 19 career wins have come early, his only finish since 2013 was the 2016 KO of Poirier. Johnson has also been knocked out twice and submitted nine times, to go along with six decision losses. Johnson has spent most of his career at 155 lb, but moved down to 145 lb in 2018, where he went 2-2 and notched his last two UFC wins before moving back up to 155 lb in 2019. The last time he won a fight at 155 lb was in 2016.

Overall, Johnson relies almost entirely on his striking despite the fact that he wrestled in college. He’s only landed nine takedowns in 24 UFC fights and zero in his last four. He’s been vulnerable to having his rangy limbs attacked by submissions through leg locks and kimuras. Johnson has had such a bizarre career that it’s hard to know what to expect out of him. He’s still theoretically a dangerous striker, but has a weak submission defense and finds ways to lose fights he’s supposed to win and win fights he’s supposed to lose.

Alan Patrick

10th UFC Fight (5-3-1)

Patrick is coming off what should have been an early loss but ended up going down as a No Contest. He lost two more prior to that and didn’t fight at all in 2019, with his last win coming all the way back in 2018 against a one-dimensional striker in Damir Hadzovic, who’s a turtle off his back. Patrick’s last four and six of his last seven wins have gone the distance, and the last time he finished anybody was in a 2013 R1 TKO in his UFC debut against an opponent who went 0-3 in the UFC before retiring.

Fortunate to escape his last fight with a No Contest, Patrick got absolutely abused for a round and a half and appeared moments away from getting finished when Mason Jones landed an inadvertent eye poke and gave Patrick a way out, which he immediately took. The fight was nearly stopped earlier as Jones went to work, but Patrick was narrowly able to survive. The two were scheduled to run it back in October 2021, but Patrick decided he’d prefer not to get mauled again and withdrew.

Now 15-3 as a pro, Patrick has four wins by KO, two by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. While he’s a BJJ black belt, his only two career submission wins came by R1 rear-naked choke in his second and third pro fights all the way back in 2008. Both of his KO losses occurred in the later rounds of his last seven fights, and he was moments away from suffering a third KO loss in the second round of his most recent match.

Overall, Patrick looks like a one-dimensional grappler who never lands submissions and is at the end of his career. He’s only fought twice since 2018 and only four times since 2016. Not counting his recent No Contest where he went 0 for 4 on his takedown attempts, Patrick has gone just 1 for 17 (6%) on takedown attempts in his last three losses, but has gone 19 for 30 (63%) in his last three wins. In fairness, those wins occurred from 2016-2018, but that just shows that his success relies on him landing takedowns. Now he’ll face the 77% takedown defense of Michael Johnson.

Fight Prediction:

Patrick will have a 1” height and reach advantage, but Johnson is three years younger than the 35-year-old Patrick.

This sets up as a striker versus grappler battle between two struggling veterans who each haven’t won a fight since 2018. It’s surprising that either one of these two are even still in the UFC, but there’s a good chance the loser gets cut following this match. Johnson has been incredibly prone to getting submitted in his career, but Patrick hasn’t submitted anybody since 2008, despite being a BJJ black belt who constantly looks to get fights to the mat. On the other side of things, Patrick has been prone to getting knocked out, but Johnson hasn’t landed a KO since 2016. Both guys are theoretically geared well towards attacking the weakness of the other, but it’s hard to know how much either one of them has left in the tank. This will likely end in a gross decision, but if Patrick can lock up a sub or if Johnson can land something clean, it’s always possible we see it end early. Assuming we don’t see a finish, the winner will be decided on how Johnson’s takedown defense holds up. Considering he has a 77% defense, while Patrick has just a 35% takedown accuracy, we’ll give the slight advantage to Johnson and say he’s able to keep it standing enough to win a close decision here, but we have zero confidence in either one of these two.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -135.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Johnson has only topped 87 DraftKings points three times in 24 UFC fights, and hasn’t scored more than 76 points since 2016. He looks like a R1 KO or bust play and scored just 76 and 65 points in his last two decision wins, which were both in 2018. He should be defending takedowns for most of this fight, which further limits his upside and it’s really hard to see Johnson returning a usable score unless he lands a knockout, which he hasn’t done since 2016. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Patrick’s grappling-heavy presents some theoretical upside, but he’s only landed one takedown in his last three fights and now faces the 77% takedown defense of Michael Johnson. Patrick has put up big grappling numbers in his victories and landed nine takedowns in his last win, so you’ll definitely want to have some exposure, especially on DraftKings where he can benefit from control time if Johnson just lays on his back after getting taken down. Both of these guys look pretty much washed and this is a gross fight between two fighters limping into the end of their UFC careers, but at least Patrick has the ability to score well in a decision based on his fighting style. While he’s a BJJ black belt and Johnson has been prone to getting submitted, Patrick’s only two career submission wins came in his second and third pro fights back in 2008. So while there’s a chance he could finish Johnson on the mat, it’s more likely you’re relying on him to grind out a grappling heavy decision win. He’s averaged 106 DraftKings points in his last three decision wins, and if Patrick pulls off the upset, it very likely means he was able to find success in taking the fight to the mat. The odds imply he has a 42% chance to win, a 21% chance he lands a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

---

Fight #7

Andrea Lee

9th UFC Fight (5-3)

Coming off two straight second round wins, Lee was the beneficiary of Cynthia Calvillo quitting on the stool following the second round in a November 2021 match. Prior to that, Lee landed her first finish in the UFC with a late second round submission win over Antonina Shevchenko, after Lee’s first six matches with the organization all went the distance (3-3).

In her recent win over Calvillo, Lee came out of the gates firing and looked solid with her scream striking. She landed 84 significant strikes in 10 minutes of action (8.40 SSL/min), while also defending two of Calvillo’s three takedown attempts. Just as the third round was about to begin, Calvillo’s corner announced she would not be continuing in the match. Lee finished ahead 84-47 in significant strikes.

Now 13-5 as a pro, Lee has three wins by KO, five by submission, and five decisions. The only time she's been finished was in a 2016 R3 rear-naked choke in her 6th pro fight, prior to joining the UFC. Her other four career losses have all gone the distance, with three of those losses coming in close split decisions against Roxanne Modafferi, Joanne Wood, and Lauren Murphy. Only one of her last 17 fights has ended in the first round, and her last 11 have all made it to round two, with eight of those seeing the third round, and seven going the distance.

Overall, Lee is a high-volume striker, but does hold brown belts in both judo and BJJ. Her 58% takedown defense has plagued her at times in the past and she’s been taken down 17 times in eight UFC fights. She’s also landed 13 takedowns of her own so she will mix in grappling.

Viviane Araujo

7th UFC Fight (4-2)

Looking to bounce back from a close decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian, Araujo has won seven of her last nine fights, with her last five matches all going the distance. She’s landed 82 or more significant strikes in three straight fights, but has never topped 89, which came in her last fight. She’s also landed at least one takedown in five of her six UFC fights and two or more in four of those.

In her last fight, Araujo lost a high-volume decision over Katlyn Chookagian, the #1 ranked Flyweight contender. Chookagian had a narrow lead in striking in the first round, but Araujo appeared to be landing the more impactful blows. Araujo was then able to take Chookagian down in round two and control her on the mat for a period of time, during which she looked for a mounted guillotine choke followed by an arm-triangle choke. However, she was unable to complete either and Chookagian was able to escape, returning to her feet late in the round. Araujo looked visibly fatigued following the grappling exchange and Chookagian capitalized on that by pulling away in striking from that point on. Chookagian finished ahead in significant strikes 127-89 and in total strikes 135-129. Araujo landed the only takedown in the match on three attempts and finished with just over three minutes of control time. That was the highest number of significant strikes that Chookagian has ever landed in a fight and she hadn’t topped 82 in her previous nine fights.

Now 10-3 as a pro, Araujo has three wins by KO, four by submission and three decisions. The only time she’s ever been finished was in a 2017 R1 TKO in her fourth pro fight, which took place down at 115 lb where she fought until she joined the UFC. She actually made her debut all the way up at 135 lb and impressively landed a third round knockout, before settling in at 125 lb for her second UFC fight, where she’s stayed since. After Araujo’s first eight pro fights all ended early (7-1), her last five have all gone the distance. All eight of her career fights at 115 lb and 135 lb have ended early, while all of her fights at 125 lb have gone the distance.

A BJJ black belt, Araujo is a solid grappler and crisp striker who’s very light on her feet. In her six UFC fights, Araujo has only been taken down once on 19 attempts and holds an impressive 94% takedown defense. She has solid power and is a well rounded fighter with cardio being her one concern.

Fight Prediction:

Lee will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as an exciting striking battle between two top 10 ranked Flyweights who are jockeying for position in the division. They’re both solid strikers, but we’ll give the grappling advantage to the BJJ black belt in Araujo. However, Lee may have better cardio and it will be interesting to see how Araujo looks in the third round if it gets there. There’s a good chance this finishes in a close decision with Lee ahead in striking and Araujo leading in grappling. Lee has been on the wrong end of multiple split decisions, maybe the judges are just annoyed by her obnoxious KIAI!!! every time she throws a strike, and we definitely can’t blame them. When you combine that with the grappling advantage we expect Araujo to have, we lean Araujo wins this fight in a decision, but it should be a close one that could go either way. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Araujo submit Lee.

Our favorite bet here is Araujo’s ML at +100.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Lee landed late/post second round finishes in each of her last two fights, so naturally she scored well in both of those with DraftKings totals of 104 and 116. Prior to that, she had fought to six straight decisions in the UFC, never topping 88 points. However, she notably scored 71 points in a decision loss, showing that she does have the potential to score decently even without a finish as that would have been good for 101 points had the decision gone her way. She averages 5.74 SSL/min (3rd highest on the slate) and goes against Araujo, who averages 5.48 SSA/min (2nd highest on the slate). So this sets up well for Lee to put up a big striking total if it goes the distance and she can stay off her back. At her cheaper price tag she doesn’t necessarily need a finish to sneak into winning lineups as a value play, but this will be a tougher spot for her to boost her scoring with grappling, as Araujo has an elite 94% takedown defense. That limits Lee’s ceiling to some extent if she’s unable to land a finish, and leaves her entirely reliant on striking. The odds imply she has a 52% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

Araujo’s consistent striking volume and takedown numbers provide a reliable DFS floor, but she’s yet to show much of a ceiling. However, now that she’s priced down as the underdog, another score in the 90’s on DraftKings has the potential for her to be useful as a value play on this smaller slate. Lee is an uptempo striker who should be looking to push the pace, which should provide a solid scoring floor for both fighters in this matchup. Araujo is also a BJJ black belt and Lee’s one early loss in her career came in a submission, so there’s always a chance Araujo can find a finish on the mat. As the odds suggest, this fight could go either way and likely ends in a decision, but we should see the winner put up a decent score. The odds imply Araujo has a 48% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

---

Fight #6

Jake Hadley

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

This fight had originally been booked back in March, but Hadley withdrew due to an injury and it got pushed back two months.

Making his debut following a second round submission win on DWCS, Hadley is a former Cage Warriors champion and remains undefeated in his career. He’s an English grappler, who has finished three of his last four opponents and has decent striking as well. Hadley is still just 25 years old and only turned pro in 2018, so he still doesn't have a ton of experience, but looks like an interesting prospect if he can continue to improve.

In his recent second round submission win on DWCS, Hadley got taken down twice by former TUF contestant, Mitch Raposo, on two attempts in the first round and he appeared content with relying on his defensive jiu-jitsu opposed to focussing on defending takedowns. He stands very upright, which also makes it tougher to defend takedowns. He also defended strikes with his right elbow, leaving his liver consistently exposed to body shots. Other than those areas of concern, he looked good in the fight. He was active off his back looking for submissions, and once he was able to take Raposo down in round two he quickly took his back and forced a tap from a rear-naked choke despite never getting under the neck, as Hadley simply cranked on his jaw. Hadley did miss weight by a pound for that fight, but that’s the only time he’s ever missed.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Hadley has two wins by TKO, four by submission, and two decisions. Both of his two TKO wins occurred in the first round, as did his first two career submission victories. His last two submissions both came in the later rounds and both of his career decisions came in five-round title fights—one for the EFC Flyweight belt and the other for the Cage Warriors Flyweight title in his second most recent fight. Four of his last five fights have made it out of the first round, with three seeing round three.

Overall, Hadley is most dangerous with his grappling and has an active guard as well as solid top pressure. He’s got decent striking as well, but he still mostly depends on his grappling to win fights. He hasn’t been tested by many other high-level grapplers, so it will be interesting to see how he stacks up in his UFC debut.

Allan Nascimento

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from a split-decision loss in his recent UFC debut, Nascimento took on another solid grappler in Dagestan’s Tagir Ulanbekov. Nascimento has now alternated wins and losses over his last six fights, with all three losses ending in split decisions and his last two wins coming by first round submission. He’s so aggressive off his back that he seems to make it tougher for judges to know who’s actually winning the fight, despite conventional wisdom saying it’s the fighter on top. Despite Nascimento being such a dangerous submission threat, seven of his last nine fights have gone the distance. Nascimento originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWSC Brazil in 2018, but lost a split-decision to Raulian Paiva in a relatively high-volume affair. Each fighter landed one takedown, Paiva on his only attempt and Nascimento on a notable 10 attempts. Nascimento actually finished ahead in significant strikes 105-81, but it was Paiva that got the nod in a split decision.

In his recent decision loss, Nascimento appeared close to getting submitted in the first round with a guillotine choke, but he was narrowly able to escape. The fight played out almost entirely on the mat, with Ulanbekov landing four of his five takedown attempts with over 12 minutes of control time, while Nascimento constantly hunted for submissions off his back. Ulanbekov wasn’t able to really do anything with top position and Nascimento actually finished ahead in significant strikes 25-18 and in total strikes 74-62.

Now 18-6 as a pro, Nascimento has two wins by TKO, 13 by submission, and three decisions. His last 10 finishes have all come by submission, including seven ending in round one, one in round two, and two in round three. All six of his career losses have ended in decisions, with the last three being split.

Overall, Nascimento fights similarly to Paul Craig, where he appears most comfortable working off his back, hunting for submissions out of his guard. That style of fighting makes it tougher to win decisions, so it’s not surprising to see that he’s gone just 3-6 with the judges, but the fact that his last three decisions were all split shows how close his fights have been from a scoring perspective. We didn’t get to see a ton of Nascimento’s stand up game in his recent debut as the fight took place almost entirely on the mat, but he threw a decent number of leg strikes when the fight was standing.

Fight Prediction:

Nascimento will have a 1” height advantage, but Hadley will have a 1” reach advantage.

This seems to set up for a grappling battle between two fighters who do their best work on the mat, but we do sometimes see that result in an unexpected pure striking match. With that said, it’s more likely to end up on the mat with Hadley working from top position and Nascimento throwing up submission attempts off his back. Neither guy has ever been finished in their career, and both are solid grapplers, so it would be a little surprising to see either guy get caught in a submission, but both of them are dangerous on the ground and if it does end early we would expect it to come in a submission. More likely, we’ll see a close back and forth grappling match that ends in a close decision. We expect Hadley will finish with more control time, but Nascimento is so active off his back you never know how judges will score things. A split decision would not be at all surprising, and at that point the outcome relies on a single judge’s score card so we might as well just flip a coin. While Hadley is still more likely to get a nod in decision based on the fighting style of these two guys, Nascimento is certainly live to pull off the upset either by submission or in a close split decision. Our official pick is Hadley by decision, but for betting purposes we prefer Nascimento’s side of things.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -115.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Hadley’s offensively grappling-heavy approach to fighting will generally score better on DraftKings than FanDuel, as he can put up large amounts of control time but generally doesn’t land a ton of significant strikes. While six of his eight career wins have come early, he’s gone the distance in the two biggest fights of his career not counting his recent appearance on DWCS. Four of his last five finishes have come by submission and now he faces another dangerous grappler who’s never been finished and has three times as many pro fights. So while Hadley has a DFS friendly style of fighting, this doesn’t look like a great spot for him to land a finish and he’ll constantly be fending off submission attempts when he takes the fight to the mat. That could also make it tougher for him to be as offensive on the ground as he would like. The last fighter to win a decision over Nascimento was Tagir Ulanbekov and despite landing four takedowns and 12 minutes of control time, Tagir only scored 93 DraftKings points and just 60 points on FanDuel. If Hadley can tack on more ground strikes he still has a solid shot at scoring well even in a decision, but he should find better matchups in the future. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Nascimento’s defensive grappling style of fighting is actually better suited to the FanDuel scoring system compared to DraftKings, as he’ll rack up submission attempts but not control time. With that said, if he can land a submission in the first two rounds, or be more offensive with his grappling than we saw in his last fight, he could score well on both sites. It will be hard for him to score well if he spends another fight on his back without landing a finish, and he only totaled 20 DraftKings points in his recent split-decision loss. That seemingly leaves him reliant on landing a submission to return value even at his cheaper price tag, but it’s always possible he surprises us considering the only part of Nascimento’s offense that we’ve seen so far in the UFC has been his defensive grappling. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

---

Fight #5

Manuel Torres

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Coming off a DWCS R1 KO win, Torres is making his UFC debut on a three fight winning streak and hasn’t been out of the first round in his last seven fights (5-2) dating back to a 2018 split decision win. That’s actually the only time Torres has even been beyond the first round in 14 pro fights, so his cardio remains a mystery. Five of his last seven fights have ended in 83 seconds or less, but he also hasn’t been facing the toughest competition as he’s been fighting on the Mexican regional scene. He showed a mean standing guillotine choke in his second most recent fight, leaving a corpse in his wake.

His recent win on DWCS was not without controversy, as Torres’ opponent complained of an eye poke early in round one but Herb Dean did not stop the fight and Torres took advantage of that opportunity to unload on his opponent and finish the fight. The fight lasted just 130 seconds, but Torres showed dangerous striking both with his hands and his kicks.

Now 12-2 as a pro, he has five wins by KO, six by submission, and one decision. Both of his losses occurred in the first 83 seconds of his last six fights, with both ending in leg lock submissions—one by kneebar and another by heel hook. His long skinny legs appear prone to that sort of attack, which will be something to consider when he faces grapplers. Torres started his career fighting between 139-146 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in 2018, where he immediately got submitted in 59 seconds. He’s gone just 4-2 since the weight move, although it’s unclear if all of those fights have been at 155 lb, or if he moved back down to 145 lb for a couple of them. Let’s just say the reporting and media coverage where he’s been fighting has been spotty.

Overall, Torres is an ultra aggressive rangy fighter who has dangerous striking as well as the ability to choke opponents out. He doesn’t appear to offer much in terms of submission defense, and we haven’t seen his chin tested enough to really have a feel for his durability. His cardio also remains a question mark and he hasn’t been in a fight that lasted longer than two and a half minutes since 2018.

Frank Camacho

8th UFC Fight (2-5)

Coming off nearly a two year layoff, Camacho has only fought once since 2019 as he’s had several booked fights get canceled. He had one entire event get canceled in early 2020 due to COVID and then had Matt Frevola replaced by Justin Jaynes in June 2020, which didn’t end well for Camacho. He then withdrew from a September 2020 matchup against Brok Weaver before rebooking the Frevola matchup in June 2021. Camacho got in a car accident just before that fight and was forced to withdraw yet again, and now will be looking to finally step back inside the Octagon. He’s lost his last two and four of his last five fights, with his lone win over that stretch coming in a late second round TKO against Nick Hein, who was fighting for the final time as a pro and came in on a two fight skid. Prior to that, Camacho had been violently knocked out with a head kick by Geoff Neal after losing a decision to Drew Dober. Following his June 2019 win over Hein, Camacho was submitted in just 122 seconds by Beneil Dariush before getting knocked out in under a minute by UFC newcomer Justin Jaynes in June 2020.

In that last fight, Jaynes stepped in on extremely short notice after one of Matt Frevola’s cornermen tested positive for COVID. Despite being thrust into a historically unfavorable situation, Jaynes finished Camacho in just 41 seconds. Both guys came out swinging, but Jaynes connected with two big left hooks and dropped Camacho 30 seconds into the fight. Camacho was able to return to his feet, but only to get backed against the cage and swarmed with punches and the fight was quickly stopped on the feet and Camacho was clearly badly hurt.

Now 22-9 as a pro, Camacho has 17 wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out five times, submitted twice, and has two decision defeats. Despite being just 32 years old, Camacho turned pro all the way back in 2005 when he was just 16 years old. He knocked out his first 10 opponents who all had little to no pro experience, so his overall pro record should be taken with a grain of salt. Of his 24 fights to occur prior to joining the UFC,22 ended early. In contrast, his first three UFC fights all went the distance, but his last four have all ended in under 10 minutes. Six of Camacho’s seven early losses have come in round one with the other ending in round two. Of his 19 finishes, 13 have ended in round one, five came in round two, and one ended in round three.

Camacho has gone and forth between 155 lb and 170 lb throughout his career. He made his 2017 UFC debut at 170 lb and lost a decision to Li Jingliang. He then dropped down to 155 lb and won a decision, before moving back up to 170 lb where he lost a decision to Dober and got knocked out by Neal. Following the pair of losses, he dropped back down to 155 lb for his last three fights and overall he’s gone 0-3 at 170 lb in the UFC and 2-2 at 155 lb. Both of his UFC wins came against opponents in the midst of three fight losing streaks to close out their UFC careers. Camacho has missed weight twice in the UFC trying to get down to 155 lb, including by 2 lb in his last fight and by 4 lb in a 2017 match, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins, especially considering his extended layoff.

Overall, Camacho is a brawler but he’s also a BJJ brown belt and has competed in Jiu-Jitsu competitions in the past. After landing five takedowns on nine attempts in his first three UFC fights, Camacho has failed to land any in his last four matches and hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last three fights. Seemingly content with slugging it out on the feet, Camacho averages 6.67 SSL/min (2nd highest on the slate) and 7.31 SSA/min (Most on the slate).

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’10” with a 73” reach, but Torres is five years younger than the 32-year-old Camacho.

The fact that Camacho was fighting at 170 lb, while Torres was at 139 lb is somewhat encouraging for Camacho’s chances, but Torress appears to be the quicker and more explosive striker. With that said, Camacho has shown he can go three hard rounds in war, while Torres has only been out of the first round once in his career. So if Camacho can survive the first five minutes, there’s a reasonable chance the tide will shift in his favor and Torres will begin to slow down if not gas out entirely. While that’s purely speculative and we really don’t know how Torres will look in the later rounds, it’s reason enough not to put a ton of faith in him. Torres has a good chance of landing a first round finish in this one, but it looks like a prime live betting opportunity if Camacho makes it to the end of round one. While that may be a long five minutes of holding your breath, and Camacho could 100% get murdered in the opening seconds, we’ll go out on a limb and say Camacho pulls off the upset, most likely in a decision, but with a chance to land a mid-to-late round finish.

Our favorite bet here is “Camacho Decision Only (No Action on a Finish)” at -120.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Torres looks like a R1 or bust fighter on paper with 11 of his 12 career wins coming in the first round. The only time he’s been in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes was in a 2018 split decision victory. His aggressive approach is great for his theoretical DFS scoring ceiling, but it’s tougher to know how he’ll fare in fights where he doesn’t get it done in round one. He’s making his debut following a weird R1 TKO on DWCS where his opponent complained of an eye poke but the fight wasn’t stopped and Torres used that as an opportunity to finish him. Now he’ll face a struggling UFC veteran in Camacho, who hasn’t fought in two years and has gone 1-4 in his last five fights, with his last three losses coming in a round and a half or less. So it does set up well for Torres to get an early finish, but it also has a lot of the makings of a trap spot. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.

Camacho has been finished in the first half of the first round in each of his last two fights and has just one win since 2017, which came in a 2019 R2 TKO against a struggling opponent on the verge of retirement. It’s been nearly two years since Camacho last competed, when he was knocked out in just 41 seconds by Justin Jaynes, who was making his debut on just a couple of day’s notice. Littered with red flags, there are some reasons for optimism in Camacho here. He’s facing a UFC newcomer who has only been past the first round once in his career, so if Camacho can survive for five minutes we could see Torres begin to fade. Also, Camacho has competed a good amount at 170 lb, while Torres spent much of his career fighting between 139-146 lb. And if Camcho can stretch this fight out, we’ve seen him be involved in several high volume brawls that are promising for his DFS potential. He scored 117 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win and 111 points in a 2019 R2 TKO victory. He averages the second most significant strikes landed on the slate at 6.67/min and also has a jiu-jitsu background that he rarely uses but could always potentially fall back on. So while Camacho has a non-existent floor and scored a combined three DraftKings points in his last two fights, he has a legitimate ceiling with tournament winning upside.

---

Fight #4

Katlyn Chookagian

15th UFC Fight (10-4)

Stepping into her 15th UFC fight, all 10 of Chookagian’s UFC wins have gone the distance and the last time she finished an opponent was in 2016, just before she made her UFC debut. Her only two UFC fights to end early were a 2020 R3 TKO loss to Valentina Shevchenko and a 2020 R1 KO loss to Jessica Andrade. Those are also the only times she’s been finished in her career.

In her last fight, Chookagian took on Jennifer Maia, who she had previously defeated in a 2019 decision, but the women’s Flyweight division is apparently running out of names for Chookagian to face. Chookagian outlanded Maia 72-52 in significant strikes and 81-60 in total strikes, while also landing one takedown on four attempts with three and a half minutes of control time, while Maia failed to land either of her two takedown attempts. Chookagian won a unanimous 30-27 decision and the striking numbers were very similar to the first time they fought, back in 2019, when Chookagian finished ahead in significant strikes 73-58. That perfectly illustrates just how consistent Chookagian is.

Now 17-4 as a pro, Chookagian has two wins by KO, both by knees early in her career (2014 & 2016), one win by submission, also early in her career (2015), and 14 decision wins. She has two KO/TKO losses, but has never been submitted. She also has two split decision losses. Of her 21 pro fights, 18 have made it to the third round, with 16 going the distance. Chookagian fought her first three UFC fights at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb in 2018.

Overall, Chookagian does a good job of utilizing her size and footwork to control the distance in fights and point her way to victory. She’s a BJJ brown belt and has so far shown a good submission defense when she does get taken down. She only has a 55% takedown defense, and has been taken down 18 times on 40 attempts in her 14 UFC fights. She’s done somewhat of a better job recently, as she’s only been taken down twice on nine attempts in her last three fights, although Viviane Araujo was able to take her down, control her, and almost land a submission in her second most recent fight. This will interestingly be the third time in Chookagian’s last five fights that she takes on an opponent who had recently made the move from 115 lb to 125 lb, which is especially strange considering Chookagian is the #1 ranked contender in the women’s Flyweight division.

Amanda Ribas

7th UFC Fight (5-1)

Ribas had been scheduled to face Michelle Waterson back in March, but Waterson withdrew due to an injury. Waterson is notably a career long Strawweight, outside of taking her last fight on short notice up at 125 lb, so Ribas had not been planning on moving up a weight class. Ribas said that after Waterson dropped out she looked around at Strawweight and everyone was already matched up, so the UFC offered her Chookagian up at 125 lb. Ribas has competed one other time at 125 lb in the UFC, which was when she took on a terrible Paige VanZant in 2020 and landed a first round submission. VanZant had spent most of her career down at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb for her last three UFC matches. She was cut following the loss to Ribas.

Ribas’ only loss since 2015 came in a 2021 second round TKO against Marina Rodriguez. She’s won six of her last seven fights, with four of those wins coming in the first two rounds. Since joining the UFC, she has two submission wins, and has gone 3-0 in decisions. The only high-level striker she has faced in the UFC was Marina Rodriguez, so it will be interesting to see how she does in this next match. Ribas holds black belts in both Judo and BJJ, but also isn’t helpless on the feet.

In her last fight, Ribas won a decision over a dangerous grappler in Virna Jandiroba, who was able to get Ribas down once in the first round. Ribas looked for submissions off her back, but Jandiroba was able to control her for three minutes in the round before the ref curiously stood them up with 22 seconds remaining. That actually worked out for Jandiroba, as she dropped Ribas with a big right hand just moments later and clearly won the first round. Ribas took over from that point on as she controlled both the striking and grappling exchanges from that point on. Ribas landed over twice as many strikes as Jandiroba in both rounds two and three, while landing a takedown and stuffing all five of Jandiroba’s attempts in the later rounds. Ribas finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 88-50 and in total strikes 124-119. Both fighters landed one takedown, Ribas on five attempts and Jandiroba on eight.

Now 11-2 as a pro, Ribas has three wins by TKO, four by submission, and four decisions. Both of her losses have come by KO/TKO. One of those came in the first round of a 2015 fight against Polyana Viana before either of them joined the UFC, while the other occurred in the opening minute of round two in Ribas second most recent fight against dangerous striker Marina Rodriguez. So both of her career losses have ended in under six minutes. All seven of her early wins have also come in the first halves of fights, including five in round one and two early in round two. So overall, all 13 of her pro fights have either ended in the first round and a half or gone the distance, and she’s yet to lose a decision.

Overall, Ribas is the most dangerous on the ground. While her striking isn’t terrible, she’s been pretty hittable on the feet and has been knocked down in each of her last two fights. She’ll now be moving up to 125 lb for this match and going against a much larger opponent. That’s concerning both for her chin and her ability to get this fight to the mat.

Fight Prediction:

Chookagian will have a 6” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

We’ve seen this experiment before when Cynthia Calvillo moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb and lost a decision to Chookagian in just her second fight at the new weight class after defeating Jessica Eye. You could also point out that Jessica Andrade was able to move up from 115 lb to 125 lb and finish Chookagian in the first round, but Andrade is a physical freak who has also fought as high as 135 lb. We expect Chookagian’s size advantage to be too much for Ribas to overcome and like Chookagian to win a decision here.

Our favorite bet here is “Chookagian Decision” at +110.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

The only time we’ve ever seen Chookagian score well in DFS was when she dominated Antonina Shevchenko on the mat for three rounds and scored 119 DraftKings points in a decision. She has averaged just 65 DraftKings points in her other nine UFC wins, which all ended in decisions, failing to score more than 82 points in any of them. The fact that Ribas is coming up from 115 lb adds some uncertainty into the mix, and Ribas has also been knocked out in both of her career losses. So there’s a sliver of hope that Chookagian could land her first UFC finish here by knockout Ribas out, but it’s still very unlikely. And considering Ribas holds BJJ and Judo black belts, it would also be very surprising to see Chookagian put on a dominating grappling performance. Those are really the only two ways we see Chookagian returning value here and Ribas only absorbs an average of 2.17 SS/min so we don’t see Chookagian scoring well in a pure striking decision. The odds imply Chookagian has a 62% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it occurs in round one.

Ribas has been a consistent, albeit unspectacular DFS producer at 115 lb, but will now be moving up to 125 lb for a fight to take on the top women’s Flyweight contender. She makes it sound like she more took this fight on a whim, opposed to consciously choosing to move up a weight class, so it’s hard to imagine she’ll have her body fully optimized for the new weight class. Chookagian will have a massive 6” height advantage, which will likely make it tougher for Ribas to both fight her range and land takedowns. With that said, her best chance to pull off the upset will be to get the fight to the mat and hunt for a submission. Ribas has shown she can score well even without a finish in fights she dominates on the ground, as she did against Randa Markos in 2020 when she scored 105 DraftKings points in a decision. However, in her two decisions that remained largely on the feet, Robas scored just 79 and 75 DraftKings points, which likely still wouldn’t be enough to be useful in tournaments even at her cheaper price tag. So overall, Ribas looks need either a submission win or a completely dominant grappling performance. Chookagian has never been submitted in her career and the only fighters to get her down more than once in her last seven fights were elite level fighters in Jessica Andrade and Valentina Shevchenko. The odds imply Ribas has a 38% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

---

Fight #3

Davey Grant

10th UFC Fight (4-5)

Looking to bounce back from a pair of decision losses, Grant recently went the distance against a pair of tough opponents in Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez. Prior to the pair of defeats, Grant had won three straight fights, with his last two victories both ending in mid-to-late round knockouts. He originally joined the UFC in 2013, but had only fought nine times over the last nine years as he’s had to deal with injuries and multiple long layoffs. He finally appears to be healthy and had his most active year in the UFC in 2021, where he fought three times.

In his recent loss to Yanez, Grant looked sharp and came out throwing a ton of kicks along with aggressive hooks. Yanez was the more technical boxer and did a great job of countering Grant with straighter shots up the middle. Yanez also did more damage as he busted Grant's face up throughout the match. However, the striking totals were extremely close, as Yanez finished ahead just 100-98. Grant failed to land the only takedown attempt in the match and Yanez went on to win a split decision. Amazingly, one of the judges scored it 30-27 in favor of Grant, while the other two both scored it for Yanez. That was the first time Yanez had required the judges since 2019, after he knocked out his previous four opponents.

Now 13-6 as a pro, Grant has three wins by KO, eight by submission, and two decisions. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted four times and has two decision losses. His first three UFC losses all ended in submissions. Eight of Grant’s nine UFC fights have made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a 2018 59 second R1 submission loss to Manny Bermudez. Two of his UFC fights have ended in round two (1-1), two have ended in round three (1-1), and four have gone the distance. Two of his last three decisions have been split.

Overall, Grant has been looking as good as ever lately, despite being 36 years old and on a two fight skid. He throws big looping hooks from odd angles, while mixing it up with a variety of kicks and sporadic takedown attempts. He’s got good power for the division and a solid chin that allows him to keep his hands low, making it tougher to see his punches coming.

Louis Smolka

17th UFC Fight (8-8)

Continuing to alternate wins and losses over his last six fights since he rejoined the UFC in 2018, Smolka is coming off the first KO loss of his career. That came against an unlikely candidate in Vince Morales, who had gone the distance in five of his previous six fights, with the one exception being a R2 TKO loss by leg strikes. Smolka’s last nine fights have all ended early, with only one of those making it to the third round. Five of those bouts ended in round one (2-3), while three ended in round two (3-0). Smolka originally joined the UFC in 2014 at just 22 years old, fighting at 125 lb, and saw six of his first 10 fights go the distance (2-4). Then, after losing four straight fights in 2016 and 2017 he was let go by the UFC and forced to fight elsewhere in 2018. He landed three straight finishes outside of the UFC in 2018, before being brought back later that year to fight one-dimensional striker Su Mudaerji. Smolka moved up to 135 lb in his return to the UFC, where he’s stayed since. The weight switch seemed to do Smolka good and he has talked about how rough the cut down to 125 lb was for him based on his height. He also talked about dealing with alcohol abuse earlier in his career, which he has since gotten past. Since the win over Mudaerji, Smolka has been finished in the first round three times, with two submissions and one KO. He’s also landed two more finishes of his own, including a R1 TKO win over Ryan MacDonald, who finished 0-2 in the UFC and was cut following the loss, and a R2 TKO over Jose Quinonez, who was finished in three of his last four UFC fights and was also cut following the loss. So overall, Smolka hasn’t made it past the midway mark of round two since returning to the UFC in 2018, and has only really been able to capitalize on favorable matchups.

In his recent loss, Smolka got dropped two minutes into the fight with a short right hook that caught him squarely to the jaw. Morales finished ahead in striking 27-23, while neither guy attempted a takedown. Smolka consistently pushed forward, forcing the action, and Smolka was landing 11.31 SS/min in the fight, while Morales landed 13.28/min.

Now 17-8 as a pro, with eight wins by KO, seven by submission, and just two decisions. He’s only been knocked out once, but he’s been submitted three times, all in the first round and with two of those coming by guillotine choke. He also has four decision losses on his record. He hasn’t required the judges since 2017 and has only been past the second round once since then. Four of his last five fights have ended in round one.

Overall, Smolka is an uptempo fighter who pushes the pace and looks to wear down his opponents to find finishes. Eight of his 15 career finishes have occurred in the second round, while four have come in round one, and three in round three. He doesn’t have a ton of power in his strikes, but his combination of striking and grappling allows him to be dangerous nonetheless. His aggressive fighting style is always fun to watch, but often gets him into trouble and his last three losses have all come in under three and a half minutes.

Fight Prediction:

Smolka will have a 1” height advantage, but Grant will have a 1” reach advantage. Smolka is also six years younger than the 36-year-old Grant.

Interestingly, this is the first time Grant has entered a fight as the favorite since 2016. He’ll have a serious power advantage over Smolka and has also been the more durable of the two after Smolka recently suffered his first career KO loss. While they have one combined KO loss, both guys have been prone to getting submitted, with four of Grant’s six career losses ending in submissions and three of Smolka’s eight defeats. They’re also both submission threats, with 15 combined submissions wins between them. So while Grant has been mostly content with taking part in striking battles lately, it would make some sense for this fight to end in a submission. We’ve seen a trend of Smolka either getting finished in the first round or landing finishes of his own in rounds two, and there’s a good chance that continues here. Smolka will likely be dependent on landing a submission to win this fight, something he hasn’t accomplished since 2018, and we give Grant the edge to finish Smolka in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -155.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Grant has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with two decisions (89 & 92 pts) and two late round knockouts (99 & 101 pts). This is the first time he’s come into a fight favored since 2016, and it comes in a prime matchup for a DFS explosion. In Smolka’s last three losses, his opponents have put up DK/FD scores of 111/128, 103/124, and 102/124. Smolka hasn’t gone the distance since 2017, but in his last decision loss his opponent scored 122 DraftKings points and 136 points on FanDuel. Smolka is constantly looking to push the pace, and Grant is an aggressive fighter who will happily engage in a firefight. Eleven of Grant’s 13 career wins have come early and if he wins this fight, there’s a really good chance he sets a career high in DFS scoring. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.

Smolka has averaged 114 DraftKings points in his three wins since returning to the UFC in 2018 and moving up to 135 lb. Four of his last six fights ended in the first round with the other two ending in round two and it’s been five years since Smolka has seen the judges. His fighting style is ideally suited for DFS production as he’s constantly pushing the pace, landing strikes/takedowns, and hunting for finishes. He’s coming off his first career KO loss, so it will be interesting to see if that changes his approach any, but we’d be surprised if it did. While the oddsmakers aren’t giving Smolka much of a chance to win here, if he does pull off the upset, he’s a near lock to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.

---

Fight #2

Ion Cutelaba

12th UFC Fight (5-5-1)

This matchup had originally been booked for February, but Spann suffered an injury and it was pushed back until now.

After seeing six straight fights end in the first two rounds, including five in round one, Cutelaba has now fought to two straight wrestling-heavy decisions where he landed a combined 17 takedowns on 31 attempts. Cutelaba has always been a fast starter and 17 of his 24 pro fights have ended in the first round (13-3, NC). All three judges awarded him a 10-8 round in his last fights and one of the three judges gave him a 10-8 in the first round of his second most recent fight where he landed eight takedowns in the first round against Dustin Jacoby. While he’s gone just 2-3-1 in his last six fights, his loss came against the #4 ranked Magomed Ankalaev (twice) and the current Light Heavyweight champion in Glover Teixeira. His only other UFC losses came against Jared Cannonier and a pre-washed up Misha Cirkunov.

In his recent decision win over Clark, Cutelaba was close to landing a R1 KO after he dropped Clark midway through the first round and then assaulted him with ground and pound. However, Clarked demonstrated his toughness as he did just enough to keep the ref from stopping the fight in what was a clear 10-8 round. Cutelaba was then also able to control Clark for the majority of the later rounds and finished with eight takedowns landed on 12 attempts and nearly nine minutes of control time. Cutelaba also led in significant strikes 64-23 and in total strikes 92-84. Honestly it felt much wider watching the fight. Clark was only able to land one takedown on six attempts, which came early in the first round, but he did finish strong in the match as he escaped off the mat after getting mounted and fought hard until the final bell.

Now 16-6-1 as a pro (plus a No Contest), Cutelaba has 12 wins by KO, two by submission (both by Omoplata early in his career), and two decisions. Thirteen of his 14 finishes have occurred in round one, with the one exception being a 2013 TKO that occurred 29 seconds into round two in what was his fourth pro fight. He’s been knocked out twice (both by Magomed Ankalaev), submitted twice, has one decision loss, and was once disqualified for illegal punches to the back of the head.

Overall, Cutelaba is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but tends to slow down later on in fights. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo and Judo, but oftentimes is content with duking it out on the feet. His takedowns have come in clusters in his career, with 27 landed on 43 attempts in four of his UFC fights, but zero landed on just two attempts in his other seven fights. That can partially be attributed to the fact that four of those seven fights ended in the first round, while another ended in round two. While Cutelaba is extremely dangerous, he’s only landed one finish in his career beyond the first round. And since joining the UFC, he’s just 2-3-1 in fights that have made it past round one.

Ryan Spann

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Looking to bounce back from a first round submission loss to Anthony Smith, Spann’s last three fights have all ended in under four minutes, with him winning just one of those. The one win came in a 71 second KO of a fragile Misha Cirkunov, who then dropped down to Middleweight following the loss. Spann’s only other KO win in the UFC came against another aging fighter in now retired Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who went 2-5 in his last seven fights. Spann also has a 2019 second round guillotine submission win over Devin Clark on his UFC resume. His other two UFC wins both ended in decision wins, with one of those ending in a split decision against Sam Alvey. Other than getting submitted in his last fight, Spann’s only other UFC loss came in a 2020 R1 KO against Johnny Walker. Spann had won eight in a row leading up to that defeat, going back to a 2017 in a 15 second KO loss to Karl Roberson on DWCS. Spann would return to DWCS in 2018 and land a 26 second submission win to punch his ticket to the UFC.

In his recent loss to Anthony Smith, Spann got dropped early in the first round, but was able to recover as Smith looked for a submission on the mat. The fight briefly returned to the feet, but Smith continued to hurt Spann until the two ended up back on the mat where Smith was able to lock in a rear-naked choke to finish the fight. Smith finished ahead in significant strikes 17-8 and controlled the entire fight as Spann never looked good.

Now 19-7 as a pro, Spann has five wins by KO, 11 by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has lost two decisions. All eight of his fights to end in knockouts (5-3) have ended in the first round, as have nine of his 11 submission wins and one of his two submission losses. He’s had two fights end in second round submissions (1-1), while the only time we’ve seen a finish in one of his fights beyond the eight minute mark was in a 2015 R3 submission win in his seventh pro fight. Eight of his 11 submission wins have come by guillotine, while he also has three by rear-naked choke. Overall, 18 of his 26 pro fights have ended in the first five minutes (69%). Eleven of his last 13 fights have ended early, with 10 of those ending in R1.

Overall, Spann is a mid-level finisher who looks to end fights early either through striking or submissions (typically by guillotine). His last three losses have all come in under four minutes and he hasn’t seen the second round in two years. After having lost two of his last three fights, it’s possible he comes in with a more measured approach to try and secure his job. He alluded to as much in his media day interview when he said, “We’re gonna take our time and do it right.” While Spann has a 60% career takedown defense, his last four opponents haven’t attempted any and he hasn’t had to defend an attempt since 2019 when Devin Clark landed two of his three attempts. The only other opponent to shoot for more than one takedown against Spann landed 4 of his 11 attempts in 2018, despite owning just a 36% takedown accuracy in six UFC matches.

Fight Prediction:

Spann will have a 4” height and reach advantage.

The last two opponents to try and take Spann down landed six of their 14 attempts, so his takedown defense has not been stellar and Cutelaba should be able to take this fight to the mat if he continues to rely on his grappling. Spann also looked very hittable and not very durable in his recent loss to Anthony Smith, so overall he doesn’t have much to rely on defensively. With 71% of Cutelaba’s career fights ending in the first round and 69% of Spann’s, there’s obviously a really good chance this fight ends in the first five minutes. However, Cutelaba has only landed one finish beyond the first round in his entire career (2013 Early R2 TKO), while Spann has just two finishes in the later rounds (2015 R3 SUB & 2019 Early R2 SUB). If this does make it to the back half, there’s a good chance that both guys gas out and we see it go the distance. Cutelaba lands significantly more striking volume than Spann (4.91 SSL/min vs. 3.43 SSL/min), in addition to his wrestling advantage. So if this does go the distance we like him to get his hand raised. Spann has a good guillotine choke that Cutelaba will need to be mindful of, but as long as he can protect his neck and not get caught with too many clean shots, we like him to win this most likely in a first round knockout, but if not then in a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Cutelaba Decision” at +750.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

After failing to land a takedown in seven of his first nine UFC fights, Cutelaba has returned to his wrestling roots in his last two fights where he landed 17 takedowns on 31 attempts. After only scoring 66 DraftKings points in his first UFC decision back in 2016, Cutelaba scored 127 points in a decision win in his last fight. He also notably scored 89 points in a draw in his second most recent match, which would have been good for 119 points had the decision gone his way. As long as he continues to rely so heavily on his wrestling, he can put up slate breaking scores regardless of whether he gets a finish. With that said, he’s also landed three first round knockouts in the UFC, where he returned DraftKings scores of 119, 107, and 131. Thirteen of his 14 career finishes have come in the first round and he’s generally a guy that explodes out of the gates and then slows down some late. Spann has been finished in five of his seven pro losses, with four of those coming in the first round, and there’s a good chance Cutelaba can find another early finish here. Between his finishing ability and his wrestling upside, it’s hard not to like Cutelaba here, but the one downside in tournaments is that he projects to be the most popular fighter on the slate. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 56% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.

Spann has so far been entirely reliant on landing first round finishes to score well and scored just 66 and 63 DraftKings points in his two decision UFC wins. He also only scored 79 points in a 2019 second round submission victory and his low striking volume (3.43 SSL/min) is problematic in DFS. Working in his favor, 14 of his 19 career wins have come in the first round, although 12 of those occurred prior to joining the UFC. Going against a wrestler like Cutelaba who owns a 79% takedown defense will also make it tougher for Spann to boost his scoring with takedowns. With that said, Cutelaba’s finish or get finished approach to fighting offers upside for both him and his opponents, and Spann’s cheap price tag on this smaller slate potentially keeps him in the value play discussion with a later round finish. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

---

Fight #1

Aleksandar Rakic

8th UFC Fight (6-1)

Coming off a pair of decision wins, Rakic has now gone the distance in three straight fights after 11 of his first 13 career matches ended early, including nine in the first round. Since getting submitted in the first round of his 2011 pro debut, Rakic has won 14 of his last 15 fights with his only other loss coming in a 2019 split decision against Volkan Oezdemir. Five of Rakic’s seven UFC fights have gone to the judges, with his other two ending in first round knockouts in 2018 and 2019. One of those was against Jimi Manuwa, who was in the midst of a four fight skid to end his career, with three of those ending in early KOs. The other was against one-dimensional wrestler Devin Clark, who has been finished in five of his six career losses. It’s been nearly three years since Rakic has finished an opponent. It’s been 14 months since Rakic last competed.

In his last fight, Rakic won a low-volume snoozer against Thiago Santos. Santos and Rakic both approached that fight very cautiously and spent the majority of the match trading kicks from distance. It was surprising that Rakic didn’t even attempt a takedown until late in the third round considering he had just dominated Anthony Smith on the ground for three rounds and Santos was coming off a smothering loss to Teixeira where he spent most of the fight on his back. However, Santos was able to keep the fight standing and actually finished ahead in significant strikes 49-36 and in total strikes 61-50. It was one of those fights where so little happened that it was hard to even gauge who won, but all three judges gave it to Rakic—including one judge who gave him all three rounds including the third where Santos finished ahead 23-7 in significant strikes and 28-12 in total strikes. But regardless of who the decision went to, the biggest takeaway was that both guys respected the power of the other so much that they never really attempted to take any risks. Santos only landed 3.27 SS/min in the fight, while Rakic landed an anemic 2.40/min. We did see Rakic accrue two and half minutes of control time against the fence, but the other 12 and half minutes all played out in open space. Following the staring contest, Rakic was laughably awarded his BJJ brown belt by his team.

Now 14-2 as a pro, Rakic has nine wins by KO, one by submission (2013), and four decisions. He has one submission loss (2011 pro debut) and one split-decision defeat (2019). Eight of his 10 career early wins have come in round one and he hasn’t finished an opponent beyond the first round since 2014.

Overall, Rakic is a powerful fighter who throws violent kicks on the feet and can overpower opponents on the ground. However, he has the IQ of a rock and consistently exhibits his cringeworthy cluelessness. He clearly has dangerous finishing ability, but has shown that he’d rather play it safe than take many chances. He’s landed four takedowns in his seven UFC fights, but only one in his last five, and none in his last two. Rakic averages 4.23 SSL/min and just 2.23 SSA/min. No one has ever landed more than 63 significant strikes against him and on the other side of things, he’s failed to land more than 75 significant strikes against any of his last five opponents.

This will be the first five-round fight of Rakic’s career so we’ve never seen what his cardio will look like in the championship rounds.

Jan Blachowicz

18th UFC Fight (11-6)

Looking to bounce back from his first loss in his last six fights, Blachowicz lost the Light Heavyweight belt to Glover Teixeira in October 2021. In a 2020 R2 TKO win, Blachowicz originally won the vacant Light Heavyweight belt against Dominick Reyes, who’s now lost three straight. Blachowicz then defended the belt against Middleweight Israel Adesanya, in what felt more like an exhibition match than a title fight between two fighters of very different sizes. The first time Blachowicz faced an actual Light Heavyweight he lost the belt in less than two rounds. After Blachowicz landed a first round knockout win in his 2014 UFC debut, he fought to five straight decisions and 15 of his last 16 fights have seen the second round, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 KO win over Corey Anderon. Overall, 9 of his 17 UFC fights have gone the distance, although three of his last four and six of his last eight have ended early. While he lost four of his first five UFC decisions he’s now won his last four trips to the judges, including a 2019 five-round split decision over Ronaldo Souza. He’s gone 9-2 in his last 11 fights, with both losses coming in the second half of round two or beginning of round three. Four of those nine wins went the distance, while his last three finishes have all come by KO, spread out across the first three rounds. He also landed a pair of second round submissions in 2017 and 2018. The only other early win of his UFC career was the first round KO in his debut.

In that recent loss to Glover, Blachowicz got taken down 30 seconds into the first round and controlled on the mat for the remainder of the round. Both guys landed a couple of decent strikes early in round two, but Glover was able to return the fight to the mat midway through the round. It didn’t take him long to work his way to full mount, at which point Blachowicz immediately rolled over and gave up his back. Glover quickly looked to lock up a choke and instead of even trying to fight the hands Blachowicz just immediately tapped. It was a bizarrely easy finish for an underdog in a title fight

Now 28-9 as a pro, Blachowicz has eight wins by KO, nine by submission, and 11 decisions. Seven of his nine submission wins came early in his career, in 2011 or earlier. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has five decision losses. Two of the four times he’s been finished came early in his career, in a 2007 R1 kimura and a 2011 post round two TKO. His only TKO/KO loss since 2011 came in a 2019 early R3 TKO against Thiago Santos. His only submission loss since 2007 occurred in his most recent fight against Glover Teixeira. Blachowicz has never finished an opponent beyond the second round and seven of his last nine finishes have come in round two. Overall in his career, he has seven first round finishes and 10 in round two. Two of his four early losses also ended in round two, while his lone first round loss came in his fifth pro fight back in 2017 by kimura. The only time anyone has been finished beyond the second round in one of his fights was when Thiago Santos knocked him out 39 seconds in round three in 2019.

Overall, Blachowicz is a patient but powerful striker, and only two of his 17 UFC fights have ended in the first round (12%). Nine of his 17 UFC fights have gone the distance (53%), although six of his last eight matches have ended early. While Blachowicz took an undersized Israel Adesanya down three times on five attempts in his second most recent fight, he hasn’t landed a takedown in his other six most recent fights and only even attempted one. He’s only topped 100 significant strikes once in his career, which was when he landed 107 against Adesanya in a five-round decision, and Blachowicz only averages 3.59 SSL/min and 2.79 SSA/min. Only 3 of his last 21 fights have ended in submissions (2-1), but Blachowicz is a BJJ black belt, although you wouldn’t know it if you watched his last fight.

This will be the 7th five-round fight of Blachowicz’s career (4-2), with all of those matches taking place since 2019. Two of his previous five-round fights went the distance (2-0), while the other four all ended in 11 minutes or less. His last two that ended early were both stopped in round two (1-1), while he knocked out Corey Anderson in the first round of a 2020 main event and got finished by Thiago Santos in the opening minute of round three a 2019 five-round fight. This will be Blachowicz’s 6th straight fight scheduled to go five rounds and he hasn’t been in a three-round match since 2019.

Fight Prediction:

Rakic will have a 2” height advantage but both fighters share a 78” reach. Rakic is also nine years younger than the 39-year-old Blachowicz.

Both of these two are dangerous but patient strikers, so it would not be at all surprising to see a low-volume staring contest. The majority of Rakic’s finishes have come in the first round, while most of Blachowicz’s early wins have ended in round two. The only time either one of them has ever landed a finish beyond the second round was when Rakic knocked out Marcin Prachnio in the third round of a 2014 fight before they both joined the UFC. So if we do get a finish, it will likely come in the first 10 minutes either from a Rakic first round KO, or a Blachowicz second round KO. With that said, they’ve also both been very durable, as Rakic has never been knocked out and Blachowicz has only been finished through strikes once since 2011. While the oddsmakers think this one is more likely than not to end early, we like the chances that it ends in a close but disappointing decision. While Blachowicz’s experience should give him a solid shot at getting his hand raised, we expect Rakic to come out ahead in striking, and therefore give him the slight edge to squeak out a decision win. The wildcard in this matchup is grappling, as both guys have shown the ability to get fights to the ground and be dangerous in top position, but they’ve also each failed to land any takedowns in the majority of their recent fights.

Our favorite bet here is “Blachowicz Decision” at +460.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.

DFS Implications:

Rakic has been a boom or bust DFS play for his entire career, with three DraftKings scores of 55 or less, but four of 99 or more, including three with at least 115 points. He’s shown the ability to score well in decisions when he can dominate his opponents on the mat and land a huge number of ground strikes, but he’s scored terribly in fights that have remained standing where he doesn’t land a first round knockout. Blachowicz has a 65% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice since 2019. However, both of those takedowns occurred in his most recent fight, where he was controlled on the mat for five minutes in a fight that only lasted eight minutes. It’s impossible to trust that Rakic will look to capitalize on that, as he’s a guy that walks around with circus music going on inside his head, but that does give him a second avenue to scoring well if he fails to land an early knockout. With just one takedown in his last five fights and averaging just 4.23 SSL/min in his career, we don’t see Rakic returning value without a first round knockout or dominating ground performance, and there’s a pretty good chance he busts here. He scored just 52 DraftKings points in his last fight, which ended in a three-round staring contest, and if we extend his pace in that fight over five rounds, it still would have scored just 66 points on DraftKings and 56 points on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Blachowicz generally struggles to put up really big scores, as he’s a patient striker who averages just 3.59 SS/min, and has failed to land a takedown in six of his last seven fights. While six of his 11 UFC wins have come early, four of his last five finishes occurred in round two and those victories averaged “just” 94 DraftKings points, with none of them scoring more than 96. Even the first round knockout in his 2014 UFC debut scored only 96 points, while his only other first round win in the UFC scored 105. He has scored well in two of his six decision wins, but both of those came in grappling heavy performances and now he faces the 90% takedown defense of Rakic, who hasn’t been taken down in any of his last six fights. Blachowicz has never finished an opponent beyond the second round in his career and only scored 65 DraftKings points in his second most recent five-round decision win. In addition to his stout takedown defense, Rakic only averages 2.23 SSA/min, and has never been knocked out. He’s also shown he’s willing to take part in a staring contest, so overall he’s a tough guy to score well against. While Blachowicz has a wider range of usable DFS outcomes based on his cheaper price tag, both fighters in this matchup appear reliant on either an early knockout or an unlikely surprisingly dominant grappling performance. The odds imply Blachowicz has a 37% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

---

We recently partnered with PrizePicks, who offer a new way to play DFS. Instead of competing against other users, you simply pick the over/under on two or more fighters' stat lines (i.e. fight time or fantasy points scored). Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS

Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:

• Cutelaba Over 95.5 Pts

For the rest of our top PrizePicks plays check out our DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content at patreon.com/mmadfs.