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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Cameron Saaiman
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Saaiman had been set to make his debut against Ronnie Lawrence here, but Lawrence withdrew and Koslow stepped in on 10 days’ notice.
Coming off a third round knockout victory on DWCS, the 21-year-old Saaiman remains undefeated and has only required the judges once in his short career. Saaiman is a teammate of Dricus Du Plessis and started training with him as a young teenager. After turning pro in December 2019, Saaiman landed four straight finishes in the first two rounds before winning the EFC Worldwide Bantamweight belt in a five-round decision and then going on DWCS.
In his last fight, the first round played out as a pure striking battle, before Saaiman got taken down in the opening 30 seconds of round two by his opponent, Joshua Wang-Kim. After playing patty cake on his opponent’s back for a minute, Saaiman was able to return to his feet and nearly locked up a guillotine choke, which he used to end up in top position back on the mat. Wang-Kim began to slow down at that point, which allowed Saaiman to begin to take over on the feet and then he closed out the round with a takedown. Wang-Kim didn’t appear to have much left in the third round and Saaiman landed a combination of punches along the fence midway through the round that he punctuated with a big left hook to faceplant Wang-Kim and end the fight. It ended with Saaiman ahead 57-38 in significant strikes and 78-42 in total strikes. Saaiman landed one takedown on three attempts, while Wang-Kim also landed his only attempt in the match.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Saaiman has four knockouts, one submission win, and one decision victory. Three of his last four finishes occurred in the later rounds. His lone decision was in a five-round EFC Worldwide Bantamweight Championship fight just before he went on DWCS.
Overall, Saaiman throws good, snappy kicks and has decent hands. He lacks a very imposing frame but seems to make the most of what he’s got, and will mix in takedowns and look for both ground and pound and submissions on the mat. He also loves looking for guillotine chokes and does a good job of using them to reverse positions and gain top position on the mat. He’s still very young and should be making improvements between every fight and now he’ll get to fight on the same card as his mentor and training partner, Dricus Du Plessis.
Steven Koslow
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Stepping into his UFC debut on 10 days’ notice, Koslow is technically undefeated but has never fought anyone with a winning record. His entire MMA career has been spent in Florida and he’s never faced any legitimate competition. He’s also never been in a fight that made it out of the first round and has submitted all six of his opponents. We don’t have enough to go off of to do a complete write up on him, but he made his pro debut at 125 lb, before moving up to 135 lb for his next fight.
He’s a BJJ brown belt who listed his past jobs as selling/growing weed and construction. He said the UFC tried to bring him on earlier in another short notice fight, but he was too out of shape to take the fight. Then he was on the short list to step in against Christian Rodriguez on short notice, but the UFC opted to go with Joshua Weems instead. It looks like the UFC just needed a body so they brought Koslow in to fill a slot. He looks like a one-dimensional grappler and it would be surprising if he had decent cardio. With that said, it’s hard to find much tape on Koslow, and even the tape we have is of very short fights, so he’s shrouded in uncertainty.
Fight Prediction:
Saaiman will have a 1” height advantage, but Koslow will have a 2” reach advantage. Koslow is four years older than the 21-year-old Saaiman.
The UFC is kicking off this PPV with a couple of young fighters making their respective debuts. Saaiman has garnered the praise of Dana White, while Koslow was pulled in at the last minute to fill a slot after Ronnie Lawrence dropped out. While Koslow has submitted all six of his previous opponents in the first round, he’s been fighting bums and has yet to face an opponent with a winning record. It looks like the UFC is using him to build up Saaiman here, and while it’s always remotely possible that Koslow locks up another first round submission here, that seems highly unlikely. We expect Saaiman to patiently pick him apart until Koslow either gasses out, gets knocked out, or dives into a guillotine. It would be surprising if Koslow was able to go three full rounds and we expect Saaiman to find a finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Saaiman ITD” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Saaiman is the 21-year-old protege of Dricus Du Plessis and is decently well-rounded. He’ll mix in takedowns, but didn’t land a ton of striking volume in his recent DWCS fight before landing a third round knockout that would have been good for 88 DraftKings points and 107 points on FanDuel. He’s still growing into his frame and will likely struggle with legitimate competition at the UFC level, but that’s not what he’ll be facing in his debut, as he takes on a low-level short notice replacement in Steven Koslow, who’s never been out of the first round and likely has bad cardio, although that’s pure speculation. Five of Saaiman’s six pro wins have come early, and we’re expecting another finish out of him here, as are the oddsmakers. However, at his high price tag, it’s entirely possible that he finds a finish and is still left out of tournament winning lineups. Koslow has the potential to slow the fight down with grappling and we wouldn’t be surprised if Saaiman locked up a guillotine to secure the finish, as that’s one of his go to moves and we know Koslow will be looking for takedowns. A guillotine finish is unlikely to score enough for Saaiman to return value, which is just one of the ways Saaiman ends this fight early and still doesn’t return value. With that said, if Koslow gasses out and Saaiman finds himself in top position raining down ground and pound, he also has the potential to put up a slate-breaking score. So as long as he doesn’t fall victim to a Koslow hail mary R1 submission, Saaiman has a solid floor and a high ceiling. Just keep in mind, he’s a young kid making his UFC debut as the first fight on a PPV card and we have no idea how his nerves will hold up, increasing the volatility of this spot. The odds imply he has a 75% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Koslow has submitted all six of his opponents in the first round, which is seemingly a DFS goldmine at his cheap price tag. However, he’s never faced an opponent with a winning record and this looks like fool’s gold to us. He’s exclusively fought on the Florida regional scene and will be making his debut on short notice, which is typically a major red flag. Working in his favor, he’s taking on a fellow debuting fighter, and one that’s only 21-years-old. That makes this a more volatile spot, but we’re getting major fraud vibes from Koslow and he looks like a first round hail mary submission or bust play. The odds imply he has a 25% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Erik Silva
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut at 35 years old following a first round TKO win on DWCS, Silva has won eight straight with his last six wins all coming in under seven minutes, including five in round one (Sherdog incorrectly lists a 2021 second round win over Erik Radleim as a first round finish for anyone that cares). Four of his last five finishes have come by rear-naked choke, but he has a ton of power.
In his last fight, Silva landed his first takedown attempt 10 seconds into the match and then landed heavy ground and pound until the fight was stopped 92 seconds in. Silva finished ahead 12-0 in significant strikes and 17-2 in total strikes in the flawless performance.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Silva has three wins by TKO, four submissions, and two decision victories. Six of his seven finishes have ended in round one, with the other coming early in round two. The only loss of his career was a 2016 R3 submission in his second pro fight. Silva turned pro in 2016 at 155 lb, before dropping down to 145 lb in his fourth pro fight. His lone loss occurred at 155 lb and he’s undefeated at 145 lb.
Overall, Silva is an incredibly dangerous fighter with powerful striking and solid grappling. He’s a fast starter who looks to end fights quickly and rarely requires a second round. He has a karate background and is a 4th degree black belt in Kenpo Karate. He keeps his lead leg somewhat hittable with a wide stance, but his fights don’t last long enough for that damage to add up when his opponents do attack his leg. While he’s only a BJJ blue belt, he does a great job of locking up rear-naked chokes.
TJ Brown
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, Brown has now fought to four straight decisions (2-2), after getting submitted in the second round of his 2020 UFC debut. One of those decision wins was split, and he could easily be 1-4 right now, and arguably should be. His only convincing win in the UFC came against a terrible Charles Rosa, who took the fight on just a few days’ notice and has lost three straight. After starting 0-2 in the UFC, Brown moved his camp to Glory MMA and Fitness with James Krause and showed some improvements, but will now be forced to find a new home as Glory has now been blacklisted by the UFC. Prior to joining the UFC, Brown finished four straight opponents and had nine straight fights end early.
In Brown’s last fight, Nuerdanbieke showed improved striking as he dropped TJ Brown with a right hand a little over a minute into the first round. Then as Brown looked for a takedown, Nuerdanbieke was able to reverse the position and end up on top. While Brown looked for an armbar off his back, Nuerdanbieke was able to escape the position as Brown looked to transition to a leg and the two ended up tangled together on the mat before things returned to the feet. Nuerdanbieke landed a takedown late in the round to finish in top position and landed another takedown to start round two. Brown was able to reverse the position midway through the round, but Nuerdanbieke was then able to reverse it again as the two continued to go back and forth on the mat. Brown continued to look for submissions off his back, but was unable to complete any. Nuerdanbieke landed another takedown in round three and controlled Brown for two minutes before getting reversed in the final 90 seconds. Brown tried to push for a finish but ultimately ran out of time and Nuerdanbieke won a unanimous 29-28 decision. Nuerdanbieke finished ahead 47-42 in significant strikes and 86-58 in total strikes. He landed three of his six takedown attempts and led in control time 7:32-2:54, while Brown landed one of his two attempts. Both fighters finished with two reversals, while Brown had four official submission attempts.
Now 16-9 as a pro, Brown has four wins by KO, nine by submission, and three decisions. He’s also been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has three decision losses. While he’s only been to six decisions in 25 pro fights, his last four matches have all gone the distance, and his last six all made it to the second round, with five seeing round three. Brown fought mostly at 155 lb early in his career before dropping down to 145 lb in 2017.
Brown is a BJJ black belt and over half of his career wins have come by submission. He loves looking for arm-triangle chokes, with six of his nine submissions ending in that method. He’s been a finish or get finished type of fighter for the majority of his career, however, he’s now fought to four straight decisions. He grew up training with Bryce Mitchell and relies largely on his wrestling, but is also a somewhat dangerous striker. He’s an offensively minded fighter and has been prone to getting submitted in addition to not having the best chin, which leaves him prone to getting finished.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Brown will have a 1” reach advantage. Brown is also three years younger than the 35-year-old Silva.
Silva looks extremely dangerous and Brown has been prone to getting finished throughout his career. That’s a perfect recipe for Silva to find a finish here, but the fact that he’s making his UFC debut in front of a PPV crowd does add a little uncertainty to the mix. Silva has also been so good at getting opponents out of there quickly that we don’t really know what his gas tank looks like and it’s always possible we see him gas out if this fight makes it past the midway point. With that said, we like Silva to land another finish in the first round here.
Our favorite bet here is “Silva R1” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Silva looks incredibly dangerous as he steps into his UFC debut, with huge scoring potential. He’s finished six straight opponents in under seven minutes, with five of those ending in the first round. He’s a powerful striker and dangerous grappler and is generally looking to get fights to the ground, land heavy ground and pound, and finish opponents with rear-naked chokes if they give up their backs. TJ Brown has been finished six times in his career, so this looks like a good matchup for Silva to find another finish. The fact that Silva is making his debut does add a little uncertainty to the mix and you never know how fighters will respond to the bright lights, let alone on a PPV card in front of a packed arena. We also don’t really know what his cardio looks like because he hasn’t been in a fight that lasted longer than seven minutes since 2018. Nevertheless, Silva looks like a great play with a huge ceiling. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Brown’s last win scored 113 DraftKings points despite it going the distance and he’s shown the ability to score well through a combination of striking and grappling. However, he’s just 2-3 in the UFC and could easily be 1-4 had a split decision not gone his way. He’s been prone to getting finished and is now going against a very dangerous finisher, so it’s hard to trust that Brown will even survive the first round in this matchup. However, if he does, there’s a chance we could see Silva gas out, at which point Brown would be in line to put up a big score. Just keep in mind, that’s pure speculation and Silva’s cardio remains a mystery as all of his recent fights have ended so quickly. Overall, Brown looks like a boom or bust DFS option and we’re expecting him to bust. However, he does make for a decent hedge on Silva. The odds imply Brown has a 49% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Billy Quarantillo
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Shane Burgos, Quarantillo has now traded wins and losses for his last four fights, with both of those wins ending in third round KO/TKOs and both of the losses going the distance. He had been scheduled to face Bill Algeo back in July, but ended up withdrawing and now hasn’t fought in 13 months.
In Quarantillo’s last fight, Burgos did a great job of chewing up his lead leg, as Burgos landed 28 leg strikes overall. That left Quarantillo extremely compromised late in the fight, and after trailing in strikes in round one, Burgos pulled away in the later rounds to finish ahead 193-164 in significant strikes and 232-196 in total strikes. Burgos was also able to stuff all 14 of Quarantillo’s takedown attempts.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Quarantillo has seven wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and four decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2016 R1 KO against Michel Quinones, while his other three losses all went the distance. His last eight fights have all made it out of the first round, with five of those ending in the later rounds and only three requiring the judges. He started his career fighting between 150-160 lb and has gone back and forth between Lightweight and Featherweight, but has essentially stayed at 145 lb since 2019, one fight before he went on DWCS and finished Kamuela Kirk in a third round TKO.
Overall, Quarantillo is a BJJ black belt and pushes a high pace on his opponents with a combination of striking and grappling. He averages 7.74 SSL/min (most on the slate) and 5.80 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate). Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Quarantillo has landed 8 takedowns on 37 attempts (21.6% accuracy). He’s won his last four fights where he’s landed a takedown, while he failed to land any of his 17 attempts in his two losses.
Alexander Hernandez
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Dropping down to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC, Hernandez has alternated wins and losses for eight straight fights and is coming off a second round submission loss to Renato Moicano. Prior to that, he landed a first round knockout against Mike Breeden, who was making his UFC debut on short notice. The only time Hernandez has required the judges in his last five matches came just before that, when he lost a decision to Thiago Moises in a pure striking battle. Hernandez's one other win in his last five matches came in another first round knockout, this time against Chris Gruetzemacher, who hadn’t competed in two and a half years leading up to the fight. Hernandez has been finished in the second round in three of his last four losses, so it will be interesting to see how his durability holds up after cutting even more weight.
In Hernandez’s last fight, Moicano was able to drag him to the mat midway through the round, but Hernandez was able to return to his feet. However, Moicano didn’t give up on the attempt and was able to slam Hernandez back to the ground and control him for a little bit before Hernandez again returned to his feet. Moicano landed a big knee early in the second round and then continued to be the one landing the more impactful shots. He hurt Hernandez enough that Hernandez shot for a desperation takedown only to find himself in bottom position on the mat and Moicano quickly locked up a rear-naked choke to end the fight. The striking numbers were close, with Hernandez finishing ahead 37-33 in significant strikes and 39-38 in total strikes, but Moicano was the one landing the bigger shots. He also landed two of his six takedown attempts, while Hernandez failed to land his only attempt.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Hernandez has six wins by KO, two by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has two decision losses. All three of his early losses occurred in the second round, while seven of his eight early wins ended in round one.
Overall, Hernandez was a high school wrestler and is a BJJ brown belt. He only averages 3.97 SSL/min and has never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a fight. He has also only landed a takedown in two of his nine UFC matches. On the other side of things, Hernandez has been taken down 5 times on 14 opponent attempts (64.3% defense). Half of those attempts came in his first three UFC matches, and he has only had to defend seven attempts (all from two fighters) over his last six fights, with two of those attempts being completed. All of Hernandez’s UFC fights fall into one of three categories: first round knockout wins (3-0), second round early losses (0-3), or lower volume decisions (2-1).
Fight Prediction:
Quarantillo will have a 1” height advantage, but Hernandez will have a 2” reach advantage. Hernandez is three years younger than the 33-year-old Quarantillo.
Hernandez has largely been a one-trick pony throughout his UFC career, who relies mostly on his striking to either land first round knockouts or grind out low-volume decisions. We’ve yet to see any big striking totals in any of his fights, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the pace of Quarantillo. Hernandez was a high school wrestler, and he’ll need to rely on that to keep this fight standing or else Quarantillo will wear him out on the mat. While we expect Hernandez to be competitive early on, unless the weight cut down to 145 lb absolutely destroyed him, but for Quarantillo to take over in the later rounds and find a second or third round finish on the mat.
Our favorite bet here is “Quarantillo R2 or R3 KO” at +650.
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DFS Implications:
Quarantillo has been a DFS goldmine, as he’s averaged 117 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with two scores of 131 or more. Even in his recent decision loss, he still scored 76 points and his uptempo combination of striking and grappling is the perfect recipe for slate-breaking production. However, the field is fully aware of that and we consistently see Quarantillo highly owned. We wouldn’t call this an easy matchup, but Hernandez has been finished in the second round in three of his four UFC losses and is now cutting down to 145 lb for the first time with the organization. All of that presents clear upside for Quarantillo, although Hernandez does have three first round knockouts in the UFC, making him somewhat of a dangerous opponent to go up against. We’ve also seen Hernandez slow fights down and go to lower-volume decisions, so there’s always a chance he does that here if Quarantillo is unable to get it to the mat. With that said, Quarantillo sets a crazy pace and we expect him to be the one dictating the action. Hernandez’s 64% takedown defense isn’t overly imposing and we expect Quarantillo to find some success getting him down, at which point he can beat him up with ground and pound and threaten submissions. Quarantillo likely still needs a finish to really score well, but it’s not impossible he winds up in winning lineups even in a decision win if he can find a decent amount of grappling success. A crazy high-volume striking battle like we saw against Burgos is less likely however. The odds imply Quarantillo has a 60% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Hernandez has more or less been a bipolar R1 KO or bust play in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 108, 112, and 128 in his three R1 KOs, but just 41 and 93 points in his two decision victories. At his cheaper price tag there’s always a chance he could still return value without an early knockout, but we’re pretty much just playing him for his knockout abilities. Quarantillo will be looking to take Hernandez down and control him on the mat, which if successful, will make it tougher for Hernandez to score well in a decision. Hernandez is dropping down to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC, which adds a lot of uncertainty on his side of things and is generally a red flag. We don’t know how his chin will hold up following the weight cut, although Quarantillo is more of a volume striker than a power puncher. It’s also possible that Hernandez’s cardio will be compromised from the cut, which isn’t what you want against a guy like Quarantillo, who's constantly looking to push the pace. Hernandez projects to be fairly popular based on his past scoring, which further limits our interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Joaquin Buckley
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to a tough Nassourdine Imavov, Buckley has now gone the distance in two of his last three fights after his previous seven matches all ended in knockouts. Prior to his recent loss, Buckley landed a second round TKO via doctor stoppage over Albert Duraev, after winning a split decision over Abdul Razak Alhassan. Despite 8 of his last 10 fights ending in knockouts, he’s seen the second round in eight of those fights and the third round in four of them. The only one of his last nine matches to end in the first round was a 2021 KO loss to Alessio Di Chirico. Buckley’s only other early loss in the UFC came in the third round of his UFC debut against Kevin Holland.
In his last fight, Buckley was giving up a ton of size to the much taller Nassourdine Imavov. Buckley tried to mix in some wrestling, but failed to land any of his three attempts, while Imavov took him down twice on seven attempts. Imavov was able to control Buckley for periods of time on the mat in all three rounds and also outlanded him 51-46 in significant strikes and 68-55 in total strikes.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Buckley has 11 wins by KO and four decisions. Four of his knockout wins occurred in round one, five ended in round two, and two came in round three. He’s also been knocked out three times and has two decision losses. Two of his KO losses occurred in round one, with the other ending in round three. Buckley fought at 170 lb until 2019 when he moved up to 185 lb. He’s now 7-3 at 185 lb, with 8 of those 10 fights ending in knockouts.
Overall, Buckley is a power puncher, but has been looking to mix in more wrestling in recent fights. He landed five takedowns on eight attempts in the split-decision win over Abdul Razak Alhassan, after only landing one takedown on 12 attempts in his first five UFC matches. However, he failed to land any of his three attempts in his last two matches and will now face the 100% takedown defense of Chris Curtis. At just 5’10”, Buckley is short at Middleweight, although he does have a legit 76” reach. He’s looking to orphan children with every punch he throws, but only averages 3.61 SSL/min and 3.42 SSA/min. He hasn’t landed or absorbed more than 51 significant strikes in any of his last seven fights.
Chris Curtis
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Also looking to bounce back from a decision loss, Curtis dropped a short notice decision to Jack Hermansson in England this past Summer. Prior to that, Curtis had won eight straight fights, with his second most recent loss coming all the way back in 2019. While his last two fights have both gone the distance, seven of his previous eight ended in knockouts. However, only two of those ended in the first round and we generally see later round knockouts when he fights. Curtis loves to stay busy and after landing a first round knockout against Phil Hawes in his UFC debut in November 2021, he hopped back inside the Octagon a month later and knocked out Brendan Allen. He then won a decision over Rodolfo Vieira in June 2022, a month before he fought Hermansson. He originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but despite landing a third round KO he was not awarded a contract.
In Curtis’ last fight, Hermansson was unable to land any of his six takedown attempts, but had no problem picking Curtis apart from the outside. Hermansson finished ahead in striking 100-43 and had Curtis visibly frustrated as he refused to engage in a firefight and instead danced around the Octagon, picking Curtis apart.
Now 29-9 as a pro, the 35-year-old Curtis has 16 wins by KO, one by submission, and 12 decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has seven decision losses. That lone KO loss came in a night he fought twice in the PFL playoffs in 2019 while his one submission loss dates all the way back to 2011. Overall, he’s been extremely durable. While he’s landed two first round knockouts in his last six fights, those are the only two of his fights out of his last 20 to end in round one, and he’s generally looking to put guys away in the later rounds. While he’s been fighting exclusively at 185 lb in the UFC, where this next fight will also be, Curtis has bounced around weight classes in the past and spent much of his career down at 170 lb. He’s also fought as high as 205 lb. His last fight before joining the UFC was at 170 lb but he seems content with staying at 185 lb.
Overall, Curtis is primarily a boxer and relies on his hands to win fights. While he has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC and doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of offensive grappling, his takedown defense has been perfect, stuffing all 32 of the attempts against him so far in four UFC fights. He’s built like a tank and has looked extremely durable. He’s been in several five round fights in the past and conditioning isn’t really a concern for him, which allows him to jump into so many short notice matchups.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Buckley will have a 1” reach advantage and is seven years younger than Curtis.
This sets up as an action packed banger between two dangerous strikers. Curtis is the more durable and more experienced of the two, while Buckley looks to have a little more power. However, Buckley is also a lot more wild with his striking and we think durability and technique will prevail here with Curtis landing a late knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Curtis KO” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Buckley has landed knockouts in four of his five UFC wins, although has yet to finish a UFC opponent in the first round. When you combine that with his lower striking volume, his late round knockouts often don’t come with huge scores. The only time he’s topped 102 DraftKings points was in a second round KO win over Jordan Wright where Buckley landed two knockdowns. His other two second round knockout wins scored a decent but unspectacular 102 and 98 points, while his lone third round KO win was good for just 80 points. He also scored 80 points in his one UFC decision win, where he surprisingly landed five takedowns, despite landing just two takedowns in his other seven UFC fights combined. Priced as the favorite, Buckley appears to need a knockout in the first two rounds to return value and even with a second round knockout he could easily be outscored and left out of winning lineups. Working against him, Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 pro fights and is extremely durable. The odds imply Buckley has a 59% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Curtis exploded onto the UFC scene with a pair of unlikely knockout wins as a massive underdog in back-to-back fights, but has cooled off in his last two matches. After scoring 109 and 106 DraftKings points in those first two wins, he put up 78 points in a decision win over Rodolfo Vieira and then scored just 17 points in his recent decision loss to Hermansson. Those were both difficult tactical matchups, whereas now he’ll get to go to war against a brawler who’s been knocked out three times in the past. That should give Curtis more opportunities to find a finish here and at his underdog price tag he looks like a solid play. He’s been extremely durable throughout his career, with just one KO loss in 38 pro fights. That should provide a solid scoring floor with the chance to hit another ceiling performance. Curtis has excelled as the underdog in the past, let’s see if he can rekindle that old magic here. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Edmen Shahbazyan
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Coming off three straight losses, Shahbazyan hasn’t won a fight in over three years after starting off 4-0 in the UFC. All three of those losses came on the ground with Shahbazyan fading hard after the first round. In fairness to him, all of those losses came against really tough opponents in Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Nassourdine Imavov. Five of his last six fights have ended early, with three first round wins and two late round losses.
In Shahbazyan’s last fight, we saw a slower paced first round before Imavov took over midway through round two. As Shahbazyan looked to take the fight to the ground, Imavov wrapped up his neck. While he wasn’t able to complete any of his four official submission attempts, he forced Shahbazyan to play defense and took control of the action, finding himself in top position on the mat. At that point, he began landing heavy elbows that split Shahbazyan wide open. He then worked his way into a crucifix position and hammered away at Shahbazyan until the fight was stopped with eight seconds left in the second round. Imavov finished ahead 42-22 in significant strikes and 64-29 in total strikes. While he failed to land his only takedown attempt, he stuffed four of Shahbazyan’s five attempts and finished ahead in control time 3:56-2:34 with four official submission attempts.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Shahbazyan has nine knockouts, one submission win, and one decision victory. All 10 of his early wins have occurred in the first round. He has two ground and pound TKO losses and one decision defeat, with all of those losses coming in his last three fights.
Overall, Shahbazyan is extremely dangerous early on in fights, but gasses hard later on in matches. There’s no denying the power he possesses in his hands, but until he fixes his terrible cardio and poor defensive wrestling, he’ll continue to be a liability. He did notably switch camps for the first time in his life leading up to this fight, so it will be interesting to see how much of a difference that makes. After landing eight takedowns in his UFC debut, Shahbazyan has only landed two in his last six fights and didn’t even attempt a takedown in four of those fights.
Dalcha Lungiambula
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Also looking to bounce back from three straight losses, Lungiambula has been finished in under six minutes in each of his last two fights and is just 1-4 in his last five bouts. He got knocked out 30 seconds into the second round by Punahele Soriano the last time we saw him, after getting submitted in the first round of a fight he was dominating against Cody Brundage just before that.
In his last fight, we saw a slow paced start between the two powerful fighters before Lungiambula knocked Soriano to the mat with a heavy leg kick. Lungiambula initially went to the mat with Soriano during that sequence but his corner yelled at him to return to his feet. However, once Soriano connected with some big shots late in the round, Lungiambula had no choice but to look to grapple as he took Soriano down. However, he just clamped onto him on the mat and didn’t inflict any damage on the ground. Soriano returned to his feet, but Lungiambula never let go and returned him to the mat in the final 30 seconds of the round with a big cardio draining slam. As Lungiambula returned to his corner he pawed at his rib, which appeared to be injured or dislocated. Soriano then dropped Lungiambula with a massive left hand in the opening 30 seconds of round two and quickly finished him with ground and pound. The fight ended with Soriano ahead 17-11 in significant strikes and 19-17 in total strikes. Lungiambula landed both of his takedown attempts, while Soriano failed to land his only attempt.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Lungiambula has five wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has one decision defeat. Lungiambula spent most of his career at 205 lb before moving down to 185 lb in 2021 for his last four fights. Since the move, he’s gone 1-3. Lungiambula has only landed one finish since 2017, which was a third round knockout win in his debut over Dequan Townsend. Only two of Lungiambula’s last 14 fights have ended in the first round. While four of his six UFC fights have ended early, three of those four finishes came in the later rounds.
Overall, Lungiambula is clearly powerful, but lacks finesse in his game and tries to decapitate his opponents with every punch. He’s a Judo black belt and won both the Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight titles for the EFC organization back in 2017 and 2018, but has serious cardio concerns and also doesn't look very dangerous on the mat. It seems like he’s reluctant to grapple for fear of gassing out, which leaves him reliant on throwing bombs on the feet that he rarely lands. He only averages 3.18 SSL/min and 3.66 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Shahbazyan will have a 6” height advantage, but Lungiambula will have a 2” reach advantage. Shahbazyan is also 10 years younger than the 35-year-old Lungiambula.
Both of these two have serious cardio concerns, so it will be interesting to see how they each look if this fight makes it to a second round. Shahbazyan is somewhat of a wild card as he just switched camps for the first time in his life, calling his old team a toxic environment, and it’s hard to know what adjustments his new team has made. Shahbazyan was a dangerous finisher earlier in his career, but hasn’t put anyone away since 2019. The same can be said about Shahbazyan, who also hasn’t landed a finish since 2019. Both of Shahbazyan’s early losses resulted from ground and pound in the later rounds, whereas Lungiambula has been knocked out on the feet and submitted in the past. Since Lungiambula is unlikely to be able to outlast Shahbazyan in terms of cardio and put him away in the later rounds as past opponents have, we’ll say Shahbazyan wins this fight. Just keep in mind, if this fight makes it to the back half we could see both guys exhausted and things could get really sloppy down the stretch. We’ll say Shahbazyan finds a finish before things get to that point, but it’s hard to be overly confident in him.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +122.
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DFS Implications:
Shahbazyan is a R1 KO or bust fighter with cardio concerns and only one of his 11 career wins came after the first round. He’s dangerous on the feet early on in fights and defends takedowns with sharp elbows and choke attempts, but he fades after the first round and struggles off his back. He did notably just switch camps for the first time in his life, and hasn’t fought in 13 months, so it’s possible we see a new version of him here, especially considering he’s still just 25 years old. He’s facing an opponent who also has cardio issues, which creates the potential for one or both of them to gas out, making this a more volatile spot. Shahbazyan’s upside has been solid, as he’s averaged 111 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, and at his lower projected ownership he makes for an interesting tournament play. Just keep in mind, he hasn’t won a fight in over three years. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Lungiambula was able to score 108 DraftKings points in a R3 KO win in his UFC debut with the help of four takedowns and a ton of control time, but he’s failed to top 65 points in any of his last five fights and has bad cardio and a low fight IQ. He was on his way to landing a first round finish in his second most recent fight, but foolishly shot for a takedown instead of finishing it on the feet and found himself getting choked out in a guillotine, to which he immediately tapped. Lungiambula only averages 3.18 SSL/min and lacks the cardio to put on a dominant grappling performance. That leaves him reliant on landing an early finish to score well, something he hasn’t done since his 2019 debut up at 205 lb. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
11th UFC Fight (6-4)This fight had been booked in October but Rozenstruik pulled out and it moved back two months.
Looking to bounce back from a R1 TKO loss to Alexander Volkov, Rozenstruik has lost two in a row and three of his last four. He’s also just 2–4 in his last six outings, with his only two wins in the last three years coming against struggling opponents in Augusto Sakai and Junior dos Santos. Prior to his recent TKO loss, Rozenstruik lost a three-round decision to Curtis Blaydes, after knocking Augusto Sakai out in the final second of round one. Just before that, Rozenstruik lost a painfully slow-paced decision to Ciryl Gane.
In his last fight, Rozenstruik came in with his typical patient approach early on, before really letting his hands go two minutes into the round. As he landed some big looping punches he got caught himself, which caused him to retreat from his offensive. Volkov then pushed him back against the fence and landed a massive right hand that stumbled Rozenstruik. Volkov then unloaded on a compromised Rozenstruik, who got momentarily dropped to a knee along the fence but never went all the way down. As he returned to his feet the ref jumped in and stopped the fight in what looked like somewhat of a quick stoppage. The fight ended in 132 seconds with Volkov ahead in striking 21-6.
Now 12-4 as a pro, 11 of Rozenstruik’s 12 career wins have come by KO, with the one exception being a 2018 split decision a year before he joined the UFC. He has two KO/TKO losses on his record and decision defeats. Prior to his recent R1 TKO loss, the only other time he had been finished was in a 20 second R1 KO against Francis Ngannou in 2020. All six of his UFC wins have ended in knockouts, including three in round one, two in round two, and one in round five. All five of his knockout victories prior to joining the UFC came in round one, so overall eight (73%) of his finishes have come in round one, two (18%) ended in round two and one (9%) finished in round five. Nine of his last 11 fights have ended in knockouts.
Overall, Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional Surinamese kickboxer. He has zero desire to go to the mat and has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He does have a solid 75% takedown defense, although only four opponents have actually tried to take him down and combined to land 9 takedowns on 36 attempts (25%), with each of those opponents getting him down at least twice on six or more attempts. He’s always a threat to finish opponents with a single blow, but doesn’t land much striking volume and only averages 2.80 SSL/min and 3.24 SSA/min. He’s lost all four of the fights where he’s been outlanded in the UFC, but is 6-0 when he holds a striking lead.
Chris Daukaus
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Also looking to bounce back from loss, Daukaus has been knocked out in two straight fights after landing knockouts of his own in his first four UFC matches. All six of his UFC fights have ended in under seven minutes, with four ending in round one and the two being stopped in the opening 90 seconds of round two. Just before getting knocked out by Curtis Blaydes in the second round of her last fight, Daukaus was knocked out in round one by Derrick Lewis. That’s notably Lewis’ only win in his last four matches and his only first round finish in his last 17 fights. Prior to the pair of really tough matchups, Daukaus had faced four much easier opponents in his first four UFC matches and knocked all four of them out.
In Daukaus’ last fight, Curtis Blaydes never so much as attempted a takedown, showing just how little respect he had for the striking/power of Daukaus. Blaydes had no problem defeating Daukaus in a pure striking battle, and after outlanding him 23-12 in the first round, he dropped Daukaus early in round two and finished him with ground and pound just 17 seconds into the round. The fight ended with Blaydes ahead 30-13 in striking.
In his recent win, Blaydes came in looking to make a statement that he’s not just a wrestler as he declined to attempt a takedown for the first time in 15 UFC fights after landing 62 on 115 attempts in his first 14 UFC appearances. Blaydes outlanded Daukaus 30-13 in striking and dropped him early in round two and immediately forced a stoppage with ground and pound.
Now 12-5 as a pro, Daukaus has 11 wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. He’s also been knocked out four times and submitted once. Only one of Daukaus’ 17 career fights has made it past the second round, which was a 2016 decision win in his 5th pro fight. Ten of his 17 fights have ended in round one (8-2), six ended in round two (3-3), and the other went the distance. Three of his last four losses have ended in the second round.
Overall, Daukaus is an undersized Heavyweight who could cut down to Light Heavyweight if he wanted to, and has actually been talking more about it lately. He relies on his speed and volume (6.47 SSL/min) to win fights, but has shown durability concerns in his last two matches. While he’s technically a BJJ black belt, we haven’t seen any grappling out of him yet in the UFC and no one has landed a takedown in any of his six UFC matches, with the only two attempts coming from Derrick Lewis and Aleksei Oleinik. So Daukaus’ grappling remains a question mark, but he does train with his brother Kyle, who’s a decent grappler and also a BJJ black belt. Daukaus has weighed in as light as 227 lb in past UFC fights, but tipped the scale at 243 lb for his last fight.
Fight Prediction:
Daukaus will have a 1” height advantage, but Rozenstruik will have a 2” reach advantage. Daukaus is one year younger than the 34-year-old Rozenstruik.
This is Daukaus’ third straight real test at Heavyweight, after he was given four easy matchups to start his UFC career. He’s gone down in flames in each of his last two fights and there’s no real reason to think this one will go much differently. Rozenstruik is significantly more powerful than Daukaus and only needs to land one clean shot to end the show. On the other hand, Daukaus will need to avoid taking anything flush to come out victorious and he’s basically showing up to a knife fight without a knife. Because Rozenstruik just got knocked out by Volkov, we have some reason to question his durability at this stage in his career, although that looked like a quick stoppage and he also claimed to have broken his foot leading up to the fight. While Volkov may not be known for having immense knockout power, he’s still larger, more powerful, and more experienced than Daukaus. The results of that fight are also likely getting us a discount on Rozenstruik here and we think Daukaus gets knocked out once again here and then likely moves down to Light Heavyweight in the near future. Give us Rozenstruik by KO in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Rozenstruik KO” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Rozenstruik is your prototypical KO or bust fighter, with all six of his UFC wins ending in knockouts. His three first round KO wins were good for 106, 127, and 127 DraftKings points, with the last two of those ending in the first 60 seconds and coming with the quick win bonus. His other three knockouts came in the later rounds and scored “just” 97, 90, and 94 points. At his higher price tag, that likely leaves him reliant on landing a first round knockout to have a chance at returning value, and he needs a finish in the first 60 seconds to put up a slate-breaking score. He’s a patient striker who only averages 2.80 SSL/min and 3.24 SSA/min and with both fighters in this matchup coming off TKO losses, we could see them come into this fight a little more cautiously. That reduces the chances of a finish in the opening minute and three of Daukaus’ last four losses ended in round two. The field has begun to catch on to Rozenstruik being a R1 or bust fighter in DFS and we’ve seen his ownership come down in his last two matches compared to his previous three. However, his implied chances of landing a first round finish have also risen significantly in this matchup compared to any of his last five fights, so he looks like a better play here than he’s been in any of his previous five matchups. Just keep in mind, he’s unlikely to crack winning lineups if this fight makes it out of the first round, and even with a first round knockout he could get outscored and/or priced out of the optimal. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Daukaus has been knocked out in back-to-back fights after landing four straight knockouts of his own to start his UFC career. He averaged an insane 120 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, ridiculously landing multiple knockdowns in three of those wins. That unsustainable pace came back down to earth in his last two matchup, where he never came close to landing a knockdown and scored a combined nine points. Now he faces an opponent in Rozenstruik who’s only been knocked down once in his career, which was by Francis Ngannou. While the public has talked about Daukaus moving down to 205 lb since he joined the UFC, he’s finally begun talking about it himself some, which shows signs of doubt creeping into his mind that he can remain competitive at the top of the Heavyweight division. While he has historically put up big striking totals, averaging 6.47 SSL/min in his UFC career, he only averaged 2.59 SSL/min in his last two fights, once he began facing legitimate competition. This will be Daukaus’ third straight tough matchup and the results of his last two matches are far more relevant than what he did in his first four UFC fights against a much lower level of competition. We saw Daukaus’ ownership drop way down in his last matchup when he faced Curtis Blaydes as a massive underdog, but prior to that he had been 46%, 37%, and 48% owned in his previous three fights. So he’s historically been very popular and it will be interesting to see if the field gets back on board here or continues to shy away. He projects to be decently popular, despite the tough matchup, limiting our interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Raul Rosas Jr.
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a decision win on DWCS, the now 18-year-old Rosas became the youngest fighter to ever win a contract on DWCS when he was just 17 years old. He’s still technically in his senior year in high school, although it sounds like he just dropped out after getting the UFC contract to pursue fighting full time. Rosas lives and trains in Vegas, so he’ll be fighting in front of the home crowd for his upcoming debut.
In his last fight, it took Rosas all of 18 seconds to look for his first takedown. His opponent tried to defend it with a guillotine, but Rosas easily escaped. That was more or less the gist of the whole fight, as Rosas spent most of the fight controlling Mando Gutierrez, either on his back on the feet or on the mat. Rosas did get too high on the back at times, but did a decent job of looking to transition to leg locks or arm bars when he started to fall off. He came close to locking up a Suloev stretch, but wasn’t able to quite straighten out his opponent’s leg. Rosas did get reversed three times in the fight, but also landed three reversals of his own and finished with 11:55 in control time, while getting controlled for 1:59 in the match. He landed three takedowns on five attempts and was also taken down once on Gutierrez’s only attempt. Rosas finished ahead in significant strikes just 20-12, but led in total strikes 91-50 as the fight played out as a grappling battle.
Still just 6-0 as a pro, Rosas has one win by TKO, four submissions, and one decision win. Four of his finishes came in the first round, with the other ending in round two. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than a round and half, which came in his most recent match. Only one of his six opponents came in with more than two fights of pro experience, which was in his last matchup, so all of his finishes came against very inexperienced opponents.
Overall, Rosas is a relentless wrestler who looks to get fights to the ground early and often. He hasn’t shown much in terms of striking, but he also hasn’t needed to because he’s dominated everyone on the mat. He only turned pro 13 months ago and only turned 18 two months ago, a month after his DWCS appearance. He’s somehow already being added to the UFC video game, so clearly they have high hopes for him. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of fighting in front of a huge PPV crowd in his debut.
Jay Perrin
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Perrin is coming off a pair of decision losses and also lost a decision on DWCS in 2019. He’s just 2-3 in his last five fights and six of his last seven fights have gone the distance. His most recent loss came against Aoriqileng, after Perrin lost his short notice UFC debut against a surging stud in Mario Bautista, who took Perrin down four times on six attempts.
In his last fight, Perrin absorbed some heavy shots early on. While he was able to survive, he didn’t offer much early offense of his own. He landed his first takedown in the final 30 seconds of the round, but wasn’t able to do anything with the position. Perrin was able to catch a kick in the opening minute of round two and return the fight to the mat, but couldn’t do anything with the position and Aoriqileng was able to work his way to the cage and eventually return to his feet. Aoriqileng cracked him again once the fight returned to space and continued to win the striking exchanges. Perrin looked for another takedown to close the round, but was unable to complete it. To Perrin’s credit, he did finish strong in the fight, outlanding Aoriqileng 48-25 in significant strikes over the final five minutes, while landing one more takedown with nearly three minutes of control time. While that was enough to win the final round, all three judges gave the first two rounds to Aoriqileng and he won a unanimous 29-28 decision. The fight ended with Perrin ahead in significant strikes 88-72 and in total strikes 106-102. He landed three of his seven takedown attempts with six minutes of control time, while stuffing all three of Aoriqileng’s takedown attempts.
Now 10-6 as a pro, Perrin has two wins by KO, four by submission, and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2017 R3 guillotine choke, but he also has five decision losses, with two of those being split decisions in 2015 and 2016. Since the 2017 submission loss, he’s won 7 of his last 10 fights. He had two five-round decision wins over that stretch for the Cage Titans’ FC Bantamweight belt. His last 11 fights have all made it out of the first round, with seven seeing a third round, and six going the distance.
Overall, Perrin is a durable grappler who’s generally looking to get fights to the ground. He’s found limited success in executing that game plan so far in the UFC, and when he has been able to land takedowns, he hasn’t been able to do anything with them. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Perrin has landed 9 takedowns on 17 attempts (52.9% accuracy), while opponents have taken him down 5 times on 14 attempts (64.3% defense). However, those numbers are bolstered by the DWCS fight and in his two UFC fights Perrin’s accuracy drops to 41.7 % and his defense drops to 55.6%.
Fight Prediction:
Rosas will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach. Rosas is 11 years younger than the 29-year-old Perrin.
Perrin has faced two strikers so far in the UFC and has done nothing to impress us. Now he’ll face a fellow grappler, so it will be interesting to see how he fares in more of a grappling battle. Perrin notably got taken down four times in his UFC debut, and at least once in each of his three fights before joining the UFC, so his takedown defense has been far from impenetrable. While there’s been talk of Perrin having the “man strength” in this matchup, Rosas is actually the larger of the two and Perrin isn’t a big guy by any means. We expect Rosas to be able to get this fight to the ground and control Perrin for periods of time, although we’d be somewhat surprised if Rosa found a finish. We like Rosa to grind out another decision on the mat.
Our favorite bet here is “Rosas DEC” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Rosa’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting is much better suited to the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel and his recent win on DWCS would have been good for 104 points on DraftKings, but just 55 points on FanDuel. While five of his six career wins have come early, those wins were all against far less experienced competition, and if Perrin has been anything, it’s been durable. So while it’s possible Rosa can find a finish on the mat, it’s more likely he grinds out a decision win. He can still score well in that scenario on DraftKings, but unless he lands an absurd number of takedowns, he’ll need a finish to be useful on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Perrin is also primarily a grappler and will generally score better on DraftKings than FanDuel, but he hasn’t been very impressive or dangerous on the mat and his upside appears limited. To his credit, he scored 65 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his last fight, which would have been good for 95 points had it gone his way. At his cheap price tag, that keeps him in the value play discussion, but if ends up spending periods of time on his back in this matchup, as we expect him to, then he’ll have a harder time scoring well. It is possible we see these two scramble on the mat and rack up reversals, ground strikes, and control time, which has the potential to make this a sneaky high scoring match. Considering Perrin is going against an 18-year-old opponent who’s making his UFC debut, this is a higher variance spot, as we don’t know how Rosas will react to the bright lights and the massive crowd. That’s reason enough to have some exposure to Perrin, but we’re not overly excited about him and we don’t see him finding a finish or scoring well on FanDuel. The odds imply Perrin has a 32% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Ilia Topuria
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Dropping back down to 145 lb after taking a fight up at 155 lb for the first time in his career, Topuria had been scheduled to make his return to Featherweight against Edson Barboza in late October, but Barboza withdrew due to a knee injury and Topuria was forced to weight on the sidelines a bit longer. Bryce Mitchell had been scheduled to fight Movsar Evloev a week after that, but Evloev withdrew and the UFC ended up pairing these two against one another instead in a similar battle between two undefeated fighters.
The last time we saw Topuria inside the Octagon was when he knocked out a much taller/longer Jai Herbert in March 2022. Topuria stepped into that matchup up a weight class on 30 days’ notice after Herbert’s original opponent dropped out. And continuing the trend of musical chairs, Topuria had himself been scheduled to face Movsar Evloev in January 2022, but Evloev also withdrew from that matchup. Charles Jourdain then stepped in on short notice to fight Topuria, but Topuria botched his weight cut and ended up withdrawing during weigh-ins. That was notably the last time Topuria tried to make 145 lb, so hopefully he’s changed some things and doesn’t run into the same issue here.
Topuria has landed three straight knockouts in 6:07 or less, after fighting Youssef Zalal to a draw in his short notice UFC debut back in October 2020. Zalal showed insane submission defense in that matchup and it looked like Topuria was moments away from finding a finish at multiple points. Topuria followed that up with first round knockout wins over Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall, leading up to his recent second round knockout of Jai Herbert.
In his last fight, Topuria got dropped by Herbert with a head kick in the opening minute of the fight. Topuria desperately looked to grapple to buy time to recover, and while Herbert was able to defend the initial takedown attempts, Topuria finally slammed him to the ground. However, Herbert was able to remain out of danger on the mat and returned to his feet with 90 seconds left in the round. The rest of the fight played out as a striking battle, and while Herbert was looking good on the feet, everything changed in an instant as Topuria landed a lethal combination of punches that concluded with one of the more violent knockouts in recent memory, where Herbert’s soul left his body before he hit the mat. The fight ended with Herbert ahead in significant strikes 22-20 and in total strikes 50-31, with both fighters landing a knockdown and Topuria landing one of his four takedown attempts.
Now 12-0 as a pro, Topuria has four wins by KO, seven by submission, and one decision. Nine of his wins have come in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. His last four finishes have all come by KO, after the first seven of his career all ended in submissions. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than eight minutes, which was the decision in his UFC debut that he took on 8 days’ notice. Topuria looked exhausted late in that fight and cardio appears to be his one weakness, although in fairness, he only had a week to prepare for that fight.
Despite competing at 155 lb in his last match, Topuria fought some all the way down at 135 lb early in his career, before settling in at 145 lb. However, still just 25 years old, he’s grown into his frame since those early days and he hasn’t made 135 lb since 2018 when he was 21 years old.
Overall, Topuria is a well rounded BJJ black belt with dangerous grappling and dynamite in his hands. He’s still just 25 years old, so should be improving between every fight, which has to be a scary thought for the rest of the division. Despite only being 5’7”, it looks like he cuts a lot of weight to get down to 145 lb. That caused him to drop out of his last scheduled fight at the weight class, and probably also plays a role in his biggest weakness, his cardio. In his four UFC fights, he’s only averaged 2.87 SSL/min and 2.28 SSA/min. He’s landed six takedowns on 13 attempts (46.2% accuracy), while he’s defended all five of the takedowns against him (100% defense). Those attempts came from Zalal (31% career takedown accuracy) and Ryan Hall (9% career takedown accuracy), so Topuria hasn’t faced anyone that’s actually good at landing takedowns yet. That will all change in this next matchup.
Bryce Mitchell
7th UFC Fight (6-0)Coming off the highest profile win of his career, the undefeated Mitchell won a decision over Edson Barboza the last time we saw him. That’s his third straight decision win and six of his last seven fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2019 first round twister submission against a helpless Matt Sayles. Mitchell followed up that finish with decision wins over Charles Rosa and more impressively Andre Fili, leading up to his recent win over Barboza. Mitchell has impressively finished with over 10 minutes of control time in each of his last three fights. Prior to the win over Sayles, Mitchell had been involved in two much closer decisions in his first two UFC fights after making his way up through The Ultimate Fighter in 2018. Mitchell was actually submitted in the third round on TUF by Brad Katona, although that officially counts as an exhibition fight and doesn’t go on his official pro record.
In his last fight, Mitchell patiently walked Barboza back against the Octagon as the two traded kicks for the opening 90 seconds. Barboza was so focused on defending takedowns that Micthell actually caught him with a punch that stumbled him to the mat and Mitchell finally used that opportunity to look for a takedown as Barboza returned to his feet. Mitchell was able to complete the takedown and control Barboza on the mat for the remainder of the round. Mitchell was quicker to look for a takedown in round two as he got the fight back to the ground 20 seconds in. Barboza was able to briefly return to his feet in the back half of the round, but he never escaped the grasp of Mitchell, who immediately dragged him back to the mat and controlled him for the remainder of the round. It was the same story in round three, where Mitchell landed another takedown and controlled Barboza for another four minutes to close out the unanimous decision win (30-25, 30-26, 30-27). The fight ended with Mitchell ahead in significant strikes 34-16 and in total strikes 182-23, while he landed all four of his takedown attempts with 11:28 in control time.
Now 15-0 as a pro, Mitchell has nine submission victories and six decision wins. Eight of his nine submissions ended in the first round, with the other ending in round two. After starting his career with eight straight submissions, six of his last seven fights have gone the distance.
Overall, Mitchell is a BJJ black belt and a relentless wrestler who grinds opponents out on the mat while occasionally looking to look up submissions, often going for the rare twister. Still just 28 years old, Mitchell appears to be improving every time he steps inside the Octagon. He’s only fought once in the last 26 months after taking all of 2021 off, but will now be fighting for the second time this year. In his six UFC fights, Mitchell has landed 18 takedowns on 34 attempts (52.9% accuracy), while getting taken down himself 8 times on 12 opponent attempts (33.3% defense). However, in his last four fights, he’s landed 15 takedowns on 21 attempts (71.4% accuracy), and has been so dominant that he hasn’t faced a single takedown attempt from any of those opponents. While Mitchell is a smothering wrestler, he doesn’t offer much in terms of striking, averaging just 2.28 SSL/min and 1.39 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Mitchell will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also three years older than the 25-year-old Topuria.
This is a fascinating matchup, as both fighters are perfectly geared to expose the weaknesses of the other. Topuria is an extremely dangerous fighter both on the mat and the feet, and he’ll have a massive striking advantage for as long as this fight stays standing. He’s also a more dangerous submission threat, which will be useful against a wrestler like Mitchell. Where Topuria struggles is with his cardio, and Mitchell will put that to the test the longer this fight goes. We’ve yet to see anyone take Topuria down in the UFC, but he’s only faced five attempts and hasn’t seen a wrestler like Mitchell. This fight basically comes down to whether or not Topuria can either find a finish in the first two rounds or win both of those rounds on the scorecards. If Mitchell can win one of those rounds and survive to see round three, then we fully expect Mitchell to win the third round against an exhausted Topuria and get his hand raised in a decision. While that’s not complicated, predicting whether or not Topuria can find a finish in the opening 10 minutes is trickier. The oddsmakers think it’s more likely he doesn’t, but we think it’s closer to a coinflip. It’s also not at all impossible that Topuria wins the first two rounds on the scorecards and then coasts to a 29-28 decision win, but Mitchell’s style of fighting makes it really easy for him to bank rounds when he can land a takedown, something he’s been very efficient with recently. As the more well rounded fighter, we’re still leaning that Topuria wins this one and we like his chances of finding a finish in the first two rounds. However, Mitchell is definitely live to win a decision here, with a slight chance he could find a third round finish if Topuria completely gasses out.
Our favorite bet here is “Topuria R1 or R2 Win” at +225.
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DFS Implications:
Topuria has landed three straight knockouts after winning a decision in his short notice UFC debut and is averaging 98 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins. He’s totaled 100 or more in all three of those finishes, after scoring 78 points in his decision win. Only once has he been past the eight minute mark in a fight, which was the decision win in his short notice UFC debut. He was exhausted in the third round of that match, and cardio is really the one concern with him. Perhaps his cardio deficiency can be partially attributed to the short notice nature of that matchup, but he carries a lot of muscle, appears to cut a lot of weight, and has struggled in the past to even make 145 lb. All of those are indicators that he will likely continue to struggle with his cardio late in fights, leaving him more reliant on finding finishes in the first two rounds of fights—something he’s been exceptional at. His two-round gas tank combined with his lower striking volume makes it tougher for him to score well in the rare event he does require the judges and he’s unlikely to return value in fights that last longer than 10 minutes. He’s always popular in DFS, which makes it tougher to get excited about playing him in tournaments, but his cheaper price tag and devastating finishing ability clearly make him a strong play in all formats, even in this difficult matchup against an undefeated wrestler. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Mitchell has absolutely dominated his last four opponents on the mat and seems to improve everytime we see him. After scoring just 50 and 66 DraftKings points in his first two UFC fights, he’s averaged 108 over his last four is coming off a career best 124 point performance, although that notably came against a one-dimensional striker in Edson Barboza. Mitchell still doesn’t offer a ton in terms of striking and is fully reliant on putting on dominant wrestling performances to both win and score well. He accrued over 10 minutes of control time in each of his last three fights and we saw in his first two UFC matches that he won’t score well in closer matches. He’s now stepping into what looks like the toughest matchup of his career against a well-rounded fighter and dangerous finisher, and it would be surprising if Mitchell was able to freight train Topuria the way he has his last few opponents. At Mitchell’s cheaper price tag, he doesn’t need to put up a slate-breaking score to end up in tournament winning lineups, but a close decision likely still won’t cut it unless he lands a crazy number of ground strikes in the third round once Topuria slows down, which is somewhat possible. Mitchell only has one finish in his last seven fights, and unless Topuria completely gasses out late and Mitchell finishes him on the mat in round three, it’s unlikely Mitchell gets him out of there early, which leaves Mitchell dependent on dominating Topuria on the ground for the majority of this match to score well. This fight projects to be incredibly highly owned as a whole, so fading the fight overall may be the better tournament leverage play than going with Mitchell over Topuria. With that said, it’s clearly a very risky move as both guys have shown huge scoring ceilings and they’re each affordably priced. The odds imply Mitchell has a 44% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Dricus Du Plessis
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Coming off his first career trip to the judges in a decision win over Brad Tavares, Du Plessis has won his last five and 13 of his last 14 fights. Prior to that victory he landed a pair of knockouts in his first two UFC fights. Only two of Du Plessis’ last 10 fights have made it to the third round, while he’s landed four first round finishes and four more in round two over that stretch. He likes to look for guillotines, which is how he finished his last four submission victories.
In his last fight, Du Plessis had a rocky start where he got caught a couple of times in the first round, but finished strong. After losing the first round on all three scorecards, he won both of the later rounds to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Tavares showed insane toughness to survive the strikes that Du Plessis was landing and most fighters would have gone out. He finished ahead in significant strikes 113-82 and in total strikes 123-98, but failed to land any of his seven takedown attempts.
Now 17-2 as a pro, Du Plessis has seven wins by KO, nine by submission, and won the only decision he’s ever been to. He has eight first round finishes, six in round two, and two in round three. The only time he’s ever been knocked out was against Roberto Soldic in the third round of 2018 KSW Welterweight Championship fight. That was a rematch after Du Plessis knocked out Soldic just six months earlier in the second round when those two first fought for the KSW Welterweight belt. The only other loss of Du Plessis’ career was a 2014 third round submission. Du Plessis has moved between 170 lb and 185 lb throughout his career, but has exclusively fought at 185 lb since suffering the 2018 KO loss to Soldic at 170 lb.
Overall, Du Plessis is an explosive fighter with the ability to finish fights at any moment. He’s a powerful striker but also has the ability to grapple. He’s made his title aspirations clear and always looks for finishes, although he is coming off the first decision of his career. Du Plessis at least showed there that he has the ability to go three hard rounds, despite his explosive fighting style. He averages 6.55 SSL/min (3rd most on the slate) and 4.23 SSA/min (6th most).
Darren Till
11th UFC Fight (6-3-1)Returning to the Octagon for the first time in 15 months since getting submitted in the third round by Derek Brunson, Till has only fought once since July 2020 as he’s dealt with numerous injuries and fight cancellations. He’s lost his last two matches and is just 1-4 in his last five, with his lone victory over that stretch coming in a 2019 split-decision over Kelvin Gastelum. You have to go all the way back to 2018 to find his second most recent win, which ended in a decision against Stephen Thompson. He hasn’t finished anybody since landing a first round knockout against Donald Cerrone 2017, with his only other early win in the UFC coming in his 2015 debut. However, three of his recent four losses have all come early. After starting his UFC career off 5-0-1, Till fought Woodley for the 170 lb belt in 2018. He got submitted in the second round and then knocked out in the second round of his next fight by Jorge Masvidal. Following the pair of losses, Till moved up to 185 lb, where he’s since gone 1-2.
In his last fight, Till entered with a solid 82% takedown defense, but after an initial feeling out process, Brunson was able to land 3 of his 6 takedown attempts and control Till on the ground for almost the entire fight. Brunson landed his first takedown just over a minute into the first round and landed several heavy punches and elbows from top position. Till was finally able to return to his feet with a minute left in the round as Brunson opted for damage over control. Brunson immediately looked to get the fight back to the ground in round two, and while Till was able to defend the initial two attempts, Brunson relentlessly pursued the takedown and finally landed it two minutes into the round, controlling Till for the remainder of the round. Till did a better job of staying upright and landing strikes early in round three and appeared to have Brunson hurt at one point, but Brunson responded by immediately landing another takedown. As he began to land ground and pound, Till gave up his back looking like he was ready to concede and Bruson quickly wrapped up a rear-naked choke, forcing a tap. The fight ended with Brunson ahead 41-26 in significant strikes and 101-28 in total strikes.
Now 18-4-1 as a pro, Till has 10 wins by KO, two by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has one decision loss. Two of those early losses ended in round two, with the other coming in round three.
Overall, Till has a Muay Thai background who only averages 2.26 SSL/min and 3.02 SSA/min. He’s only landed five takedowns in his 10 UFC fights and doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, while he’s been taken down 10 times in the UFC despite owning a 78% takedown defense. His low-volume approach to fighting doesn’t make for the most exciting matches, and he’s never landed more than 49 significant strikes in a fight. Even in his five-round decisions, we’ve seen very low striking totals.
Fight Prediction:
Du Plessis will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
These two have conflicting styles, as Du Plessis makes for high-volume exciting fights, while Till is a much slower paced grinder. It will be interesting to see which style prevails and how much ring rust Till has to knock off, but we like Du Plessis’ chances of finishing Till in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Du Plessis ITD” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Du Plessis is coming off the first decision of his career, but has still landed finishes in 16 of his 17 wins, while getting finished in both of his losses. He also averages 6.55 SSL/min and 6.7 TDA/15 min, although has just an 18% takedown accuracy. While he only scored 80 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, he put up scores of 108 and 110 just before that with a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds. Based on how slowed paced Till is, it’s hard to see Du Plessis scoring well without a finish here, but Till has notably been finished in three of his last four losses. So there’s a good chance Du Plessis can find another finish here. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Till is a low-volume striker, who doesn’t add much in terms of grappling, and has only once scored above 82 DraftKings points in 10 UFC appearances. He hasn’t fought in 15 months, hasn’t won in over three years and has never landed a UFC finish at 185 lb, where he’s currently fighting. He’s just 1-4 in his last five matches, with the win coming in a split decision and the only time Till put up a usable score in his career was when he knocked out Donald Cerrone in the first round of a 2017 match. Du Plessis has only been knocked out once in his career, which came in the third round of a 2018 KSW Welterweight title fight. Even a later round finish is unlikely to really score well for Till, who totaled just 82 DraftKings points in his only other early win in the UFC, which came in a second round knockout in his 2015 UFC debut. So despite his cheaper price tag, Till may still need a first round knockout to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Santiago Ponzinibbio
16th UFC Fight (10-5)Ponzinibbio had been scheduled to face Robbie Lawler here, but Lawler withdrew and Morono stepped in on Monday. The fight was then moved from 170 lb to a 180 lb Catchweight.
Ponzinibbio has lost two straight split decisions and is just 1-3 in his last four fights since returning from an extended 26 month layoff. Ponzinibbio won seven straight fights from 2015 to 2018, but then dealt with a bad staph infection that kept him out for over two years. After not fighting at all in 2019 or 2020, Ponzinibbio got knocked out in the first round by Li Jingliang upon his return in January 2021. He bounced back with a hardfought decision win over Miguel Baeza, but then lost two decisions most recently.
In his last fight, we saw a close, high-volume striking battle and Michel Pereira curiously never attempted a takedown in the fight, while it was Ponzinibbio who landed one of his four attempts. Pereira took an early striking lead, while the numbers in the later rounds were almost dead even. The fight ended with Pereira ahead 110-105 in significant strikes and 110-106 in total strikes, with Pereira winning a split decision.
Now 28-6 as a pro, Ponzinibbio has 15 wins by KO, six by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out in three of his six career losses, but he’s never been submitted. His other three losses all ended in decisions. Of his 21 early wins, he impressively has 14 first round finishes. His last submission victory came all the way back in 2012 just before joining the UFC, and he seems far more reliant on knocking opponents out to get finishes at the UFC level. The only time since 2011 that he’s landed a finish beyond the first round was in a 2018 R4 KO over Neil Magny. That was also the last time he landed a finish and it’s been over five years since he finished an opponent in the opening three rounds.
Overall, Ponzinibbio is looking to turn fights into brawls, especially since returning from his extended layoff. After failing to land more than 79 significant strikes in any of his first 11 UFC fights before his extended layoff, Ponzinibbio has landed 121, 91, and 105 significant strikes in his recent three decisions. He’s only landed six takedowns in 15 UFC appearances and three of those came against Mike Perry in 2017, so he doesn’t add much in terms of grappling. Looking at his defensive grappling, he has only been taken down once in his last eight fights, but has only faced three takedown attempts over that stretch. Looking at his entire UFC career, he’s been taken down 11 times on 28 attempts and owns a 60% takedown defense.
Alex Morono
17th UFC Fight (11-4, NC)Morono just stepped into this fight on Monday, so it will be interesting to see how he looks. It’s not the first time he’s accepted a fight on short notice and we saw him land a first round knockout against an albeit washed up Donald Cerrone in May 2021 after stepping in on short notice.
Entering this matchup on a four fight winning streak, Morono has gone the distance in his last three and five of his last six fights. His only loss over that stretch came in a decision against Anthony Pettis. His most recent win came against Matthew Semelsberger, after he won decisions over Mickey Gall and David Zawada just before that.
In his last fight, Morono damaged the eye of Semelsberger in the first round, which immediately swelled up to the point that it looked like it might end the fight. However, Semelsberger fought through it and continued to push forward. Morono did a good job of landing his shots while staying out of danger in the striking exchanges, but did get dropped in the opening seconds of the third round with a flying knee. Nevertheless, he hung on to win a decision and has now won six of the last seven decisions he’s been to. Morono finished ahead in significant strikes 106-74 and in total strikes 119-86m but failed to land any of his four takedown attempts. Semelsberger landed his only takedown attempt in the fight.
Now 22-7 as a pro, Morono has six wins by KO, six more by submission, nine decisions, and one DQ victory when his opponent bit him. Morono has never been submitted, but he’s officially been knocked out twice. In reality, he’s been knocked out three times, but one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Niko Price later tested positive for THC. He also has five decision losses. Three of Morono’s six submission wins were R1 armbars very early in his career, and he’s definitely more focused on looking for knockouts at this stage in his career. He’s confirmed that himself saying, “Knockouts are gold, submissions are silver and decisions are bronze.” So while he’s a 2nd degree BJJ black belt, he’s also a black belt in Taekwondo and clearly prioritizes finishing fights on the feet. His last two finishes have both come by R1 KO and he hasn’t submitted anybody in his last 11 fights. Morono has returned very polarized results throughout his career as 11 of his 12 career finishes have come in the first round as have both of his official KO losses.
Overall, Morono is a well rounded fighter but chooses to rely mostly on his striking to win fights. He’s only landed four takedowns on 20 attempts (20%) in his 15 UFC fights, with zero landed in 13 of those matches. He lands a decent amount of striking volume, averaging 5.36 SSL/min (6th highest on the slate) and 4.01 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Ponzinibbio will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Morono is four years younger than the 36-year-old Ponzinibbio.
This sets up as a fun striking battle between two longtime veterans. Morono has only landed one finish in his last eight fights, while Ponzinibbio only has one in his last six. While they’ve both been knocked out multiple times in the past, it’s rare to see either guy land a finish beyond the first round. So as long as this makes it past the five minute mark, as we expect it to, it should end in a close decision. Considering Morono took the fight on just five days’ notice, we’ll give the edge to Ponzinibbio, but this one could go either way.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -132.
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DFS Implications:
Ponzinibbio is heavily reliant on landing a first round KO to score well in DFS. Four of his 10 UFC wins have come by R1 KO, and he’s averaged 111 DraftKings points in those fights. However, the most recent of those was back in 2017 and he’s now 36 years old. His only UFC finish to come beyond the first round was in a 2018 R4 KO against Neil Magny, where Ponzinibbio scored 93 points. In his five UFC decision victories, Ponzinibbio has averaged just 69 DraftKings points, with only one score above 79, which was when he totaled 90 points when he landed a career best three takedowns plus a knockdown against Mike Perry in 2017. At his high price tag, that seemingly leaves Ponzinibbio as a R1 KO or bust option on this slate, although the fact that Morono took the fight on short notice could be beneficial to Ponzinibbio. The odds imply Ponzinibbio has a 62% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Morono has similarly been a R1 KO or bust DFS play for almost his entire UFC career, with the one exception being a high-volume brawl against Rhys McKee where Morono still scored a massive 126 DraftKings points in a decision win on the back of 176 significant strikes landed, 208 total strikes, and three takedowns. Morono’s other five most recent decision wins have been good for just 76, 78, 69, 74, and 71 points. So he’s been extremely consistent and has shown a solid floor, but not much of a ceiling. It will be interesting to see how his cardio looks if this hits the later rounds, after he took this fight on just five days’ notice. That’s definitely worrisome for his chances of sustaining the pace that would be required to score well without a finish, but it’s not impossible. If we get a lower scoring slate or only a couple of underdogs win, then Morono could still have a chance to be useful at his cheap price tag even if he doesn’t land a finish, but he’ll need a lot of things to go his way. Working in his favor, Ponzinibbio has been in three straight high-volume striking battles, which should boost Morono’s scoring potential as long as he doesn’t get finished. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Paddy Pimblett
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Continuing to finish everyone he faces recently, Pimblett is coming off a second round submission win over Jordan Leavitt, after landing four straight first round finishes just before that. He landed a first round KO win in his September 2021 UFC debut, although he faced some adversity in that fight as he absorbed several big punches from Luigi Vendramini early on. Pimblett kept his chin high and his hands low. He got taken down a minute into the fight, but was able to return to his feet relatively quickly. Pimblett found his timing late in the round, and once he smelled blood, he really turned it on late and landed a knockout in the final minute of the round. He then landed a first round submission win over Rodrigo Vargas, leading up to his recent win over Leavitt.
In his last fight, Pimblett got taken down 30 seconds into the first round by Leavitt, but immediately returned to his feet. However, he remained in the grasp of Leavitt, who was able to elevate him and return him to the mat as Pimblett looked for a choke. Leavitt escaped the choke, but that would be the theme of the match as Leavitt continued to look to wrestle, while Pimblett looked for submissions. Pimblett finished the round strong as he was able to take Leavitt’s back and begin looking for a finish, before the clock expired. Leavitt continued to look for takedowns in round two, but Pimblett stuffed his attempts, while continuing to look for submissions. Pimblett then trapped Leavitt’s arm in a body triangle, making it incredibly difficult for Leavitt to defend and Pimblett locked up a rear-naked choke. The fight ended with Pimblett ahead 17-16 in significant strikes while he landed his only takedown attempt, but with Leavitt ahead in total strikes 41-30, while he landed three of his nine takedown attempts.
Now 19-3 as a pro, Pimblett has six wins by KO, nine by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss ending in a 2013 first round submission in his fifth pro fight against a suspect Cameron Else, who has recently been finished in the first six minutes of both of his UFC fights. Since that early loss, Pimblett has gone 15-2 with both of those more recent losses ending in five-round decisions in Cage Warriors Championship fights. The first of those was against UFC fighter Nad Narimani down at 145 lb. Following that 2017 loss, Pimblett moved up to 155 lb, where he won his first fight in a 2018 second round armbar submission. He then lost a 2018 five-round decision to Soren Bak for the vacant Cage Warriors Lightweight belt before landing four more finishes since. Pimblett actually started his career all the way down at 135 lb back in 2012 when he was just 17 years old. After going 6-1 at 135 lb, he moved up to 145 lb in 2014 in his eighth pro fight. He then went 7-1 in his next eight fights at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in 2018 when he was 23 years old, where he’s since gone 6-1, with all six of those wins coming in under eight minutes and the one loss ending in a five-round decision.
Pimblett easily could have lost another five-round decision to Julian Erosa back in 2016, but squeaked out the win, so he’s often struggled in five-round fights. Had the judges not ruled that decision in his favor, he’d be 0-3 in five-round decisions and 1-3 in Cage Warriors title fights, as he landed a first round KO to win the belt just before facing Erosa. Of his 15 early wins, 11 have ended in round one with the other four occurring in round two. All six of his career knockouts came in the first round, while three of his last five and four of his nine submissions have ended in round two, with the other five ending in round one. Pimblett lost his last two fights to make it past the eight minute mark and that easily could have been three, so cardio is one potential concern with him.
Overall, Pimblett appears very undisciplined both inside and out of the Octagon, keeping his chin high and mouth stuffed during and after fights. He turns into a competitive eater once his fights are done, which is sure to eventually catch up with him and likely contributes to his cardio issues. He comes into every fight looking for a quick finish without much regard for his striking defense, and it’s also just a matter of time before that catches up with him as well.
Jared Gordon
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Fresh off a decision win over an aging/struggling Leonardo Santos who’s lost his last three fights, Gordon has now won four of his last five fights. After landing a second round TKO win in his 2017 UFC debut, Gordon’s last six UFC victories have all gone the distance, while all four of his UFC losses have come early, including three knockouts and one submission. That debut was against a 145 lb opponent, although Gordon weighed in at 149 lb and the fight ended up technically being a Catchweight match. Gordon has consistently struggled when he’s tried to make 145 lb, and appears to have finally stopped trying as his last few fights have all been at 155 lb. Gordon is just 4-4 at 155 lb in the UFC, with all of those wins going the distance and all of the losses ending early. In his last loss, we saw Gordon get dominated on the mat by Grant Dawson, who was able to land seven takedowns on 17 attempts. Prior to that, Gordon had only been taken down eight times in his first nine UFC fights combined.
In his last fight, Gordon never looked to take the high-level grappler in Santos down, and instead was content with outlanding his way to victory on the feet. He had a ton of success with that approach as the striking numbers weren’t even remotely close. Gordon outlanded Santos 116-36 in significant strikes and 203-41 in total strikes, while Gordon also stuffed all three of Santos’ takedown attempts as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Now 19-5 as a pro, Gordon has six wins by KO, two by submission, and 11 decisions. All but one of his early wins occurred prior to joining the UFC, and he doesn’t look like much of a threat to finish fights at the UFC level. He’s been knocked out four times, twice in round one and two more times round three. In fairness to him, it’s been over three years since anyone knocked him out, but his chin looked very dubious earlier in his UFC career. He’s also been submitted once, but has never lost a decision. Gordon has competed anywhere between 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, but all of his UFC fights have taken place at either 149-150 lb Catchweight (3-0) or 155 lb (4-4).
Overall, Gordon is a ground and pound specialist with a suspect chin. He relies on making fights dirty and using his experience to grind out decision wins as he simply wears on his opponents. While he’s a BJJ brown belt, he only has one submission win in his last 23 fights, which was in 2016 before he joined the UFC.
Gordon made the switch in teams from Roufusport to Sanford MMA in 2019 following his knockout loss to Charles Oliveira and has since gone 4-1. He had planned on moving down to 145 lb following that loss, but in his next fight, his opponent, Chris Fishgold missed weight by three pounds and the fight was moved to a 149 lb Catchweight. Gordon was able to successfully hit 145 lb for that matchup prior to Fishgold missing, but for his next fight it was Gordon who missed weight by 4 lb when he was set to face Danny Chavez at 145 lb and that fight was moved to a 150 lb Catchweight. Following those two attempts at competing in the 145 lb division, which both played out as Catchweight matchups, Gordon moved back up to 155 lb in 2021, where he’s stayed since.
In his 11 UFC fights, Gordon has landed 17 takedowns on 43 attempts (39.5% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 15 times on 36 attempts (58.3% defense). In his last three fights, Gordon has only landed one takedown, while he’s been taken down 11 times.
Fight Prediction:
Pimblett will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. He’s also seven years younger than the 34-year-old Gordon.
This will be the fourth straight grappler Gordon has faced. Against the previous three, Gordon landed just one takedown on two attempts, while he got taken down 11 times on 27 opponent attempts. The difference here is that Pimblett represents more of a threat on the feet than those last few opponents, so it will be interesting to see if Gordon remains comfortable with keeping it standing. Pimblett has looked hittable and is more of a brawler than a technical striker, so Gordon should have plenty of opportunities to land punches. However, he’s shown a suspect chin in the past and there’s a high probability of him getting knocked out if gets drawn into a firefight. Gordon’s best path to victory will be to make this fight ugly, tie Pimblett up in the clinch, wear on his questionable gas tank and try to take over in the back half. If Pimblett can avoid that, we like his chances of finding an early finish, most likely in a first round knockout, which is our official prediction for this match.
Our favorite bet here is “Pimblett ITD” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Pimblett’s reckless uptempo striking combined with his solid grappling ability and history of landing early finishes is the perfect recipe for DFS success. He’s finished five straight opponents in under eight minutes, with four of those ending in round one. His suspect cardio and poor striking defense are two clear holes in his game, but his chin has looked solid and no one in the UFC has been able to make it past the second round against him to truly test his cardio. If Gordon can avoid getting finished early, he certainly has the ability to test Pimblett’s cardio, but he hasn’t looked like any sort of knockout threat and likely won’t be able to make Pimblett pay for his poor striking defense. So Pimblett should be at no risk of getting finished and should have ample opportunity to land a finish of his own, as Gordon has been finished in all five of his career losses. Working against Pimblett in DFS tournaments, he’s always highly owned, as he was 42% owned on DraftKings in each of his last two fights after being 34% owned in his UFC debut. We also saw him get controlled for periods of time in each of his last two fights, which resulted in lower scoring as he only totaled 88 and 98 DraftKings points, after notching 119 points in his debut. Perhaps those unspectacular scores combined with his high price tag and tougher matchup will keep his ownership from getting completely out of control, but he still projects to be very popular. That lowers his tournament appeal to some extent, but his upside is undeniable. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Gordon has averaged 106 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, despite the last six of those ending in decisions. He only failed to score 95 or more points in one of those, and has shown a really solid floor whenever he wins. He’s known for his ground and pound, and therefore is typically a much better play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, as most of those strikes don’t register as significant. Just keep in mind, he’s generally struggled when facing tougher competition and his first five UFC wins came against opponents who combined to go 5-15-1 in the UFC. His only UFC win over a non-floundering opponent was a close 2021 split-decision over Joe Solecki, where Gordon only scored 74 DraftKings points. So while Gordon is fully capable of capitalizing on advantageous opportunities, he’s never won a UFC fight as more than a +110 underdog. The UFC has all the financial motivation in the world to build Pimblett up and Gordon is just the next rung on the ladder. We know everyone is salivating over the idea of fading Pimblett, but we may have to wait a bit longer. With that said, in addition to Gordon’s UFC experience advantage, he also has far superior cardio. And if Gordon can survive the first two rounds, he could be looking at a compromised version of Pimblett in round three. That could allow Gordon to put up a big striking total late in the fight and still score well in a decision. That at least keeps him somewhat in the tournament discussion, and if he does pull off the upset he’ll be a massive leverage play. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Magomed Ankalaev
11th UFC Fight (9-1)This matchup had originally been a three-round co-main event, but after Jiri Prochazka withdrew from his title fight against Glover Teixeira due to a very bad shoulder injury and then surprisingly vacated the belt due to the severity of the injury, this matchup was elevated to the main event for the vacant belt. The UFC originally offered Teixeira the title shot against Ankalaev, but Teixeira countered by saying he would fight Blachowicz on this date for the belt or take on Ankalaev on the Rio card on January 21st 2023 so he could have a little more time to prepare for the less familiar matchup, while also getting to fight in his native Brazil. The UFC quickly declined his counter and offered the title shot to Blachowicz instead, who had already been preparing to fight Ankalaev, albeit only in a three-round match. Keep in mind, the Prochazka injury news only broke about two and a half weeks before this fight was set to take place, so there was little time for anyone to make many meaningful adjustments.
Entering this impromptu title fight on a nine fight winning streak, Ankalaev is coming off a second round TKO win over Anthony Smith, who broke his left ankle in the first round of the fight. Prior to that, Ankalaev won a painfully slow paced five-round decision over Thiago Santos, who was able to become the first UFC fighter to ever knock Ankalaev down, but wasn’t able to get much else done in the match. Despite getting knocked down early and holding a wrestling advantage, we still didn’t see Ankalaev even attempt a takedown until round four and he finished with just one takedown landed on two attempts. Ankalaev won two more decisions in three-round fights just before that, after knocking out four of his previous five opponents. The only time he’s lost in the UFC, or in his career for that matter, came in a literal last second second submission in his 2018 UFC debut against Paul Craig.
In his last fight, Ankalaev once again came in with a patient approach, as he outlanded Smith 20-13 in significant strikes in the first round and never attempted a takedown. It wasn’t entirely clear exactly when or how Smith injured his ankle in the first round, but following the opening five minutes he limped back to his corner and requested that ice be put on it. Smith tried to fight through it in round two but was clearly compromised. Because of that, he shot for a takedown 30 seconds into the round. Ankalaev did a good job of defending the takedown attempt, which forced Smith to try and pull guard to get the fight to the ground. Ankalaev eventually found himself in top position on the mat and began raining down heavy ground and pound as Smith gave up his back and simply covered up. The fight was quickly stopped with Ankalaev finishing ahead in significant strikes 46-18 and in total strikes 64-21.
Now 17-1 as a pro, Ankalaev has nine wins by KO and eight decisions, with his lone loss ending in a last second third round submission. Six of his nine knockouts occurred in the first round, one ended in round two, another came in round three, and the final one was in round four.
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Ankalaev’s career, but just his second in the UFC. He had a pair of fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, where he landed a pair of knockouts in the 1st and 4th rounds. His lone UFC five-round fight went the distance against Thiago Santos.
Overall, Ankalaev is a violent yet patient striker, and also has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and holds the title of Master of Sports in Combat Sambo. However, he typically relies mostly on his striking and he’s only landed 7 takedowns on 21 attempts (33.3%) in his 10 UFC fights. On the other side of things, he has a solid 86% takedown defense and has only been taken down three times on 22 opponent attempts. It seems like Ankalaev is beginning to fall into the “He’s so good he’s boring” category that we see many great fighters slip into.
Jan Blachowicz
19th UFC Fight (12-6)Back in title contention 14 months after losing the Light Heavyweight belt to Glover Teixeira in a second round submission, Blachowicz is now coming off a third round TKO win over Aleksandar Rakic that ended in an anticlimactic freak knee injury. In the loss to Glover, Blachowicz got taken down 30 seconds into the first round and controlled on the mat for the remainder of the round. Glover was able to return the fight to the mat midway through the round, quickly work his way to full mount and then easily lock up a rear-naked choke as Blachowicz rolled to his back and instantly tapped.
Prior to the loss to Teixeira, Blachowicz had won five straight, after getting knocked out by Thiago Santos back in 2019. While seven of Blachowicz’s last nine fights have ended early, he has two five-round decision wins in his last six matches. Despite his notorious power, only two of his 18 UFC fights have ended in the first round, both of those coming in KO victories. One of those was in his 2014 UFC debut, and his only fight in his last 17 to end in round one was when he knocked out Corey Anderson in 2020, who then immediately left the UFC. Blachowicz won the vacant Light Heavyweight belt against Dominick Reyes in 2020, but his only successful title defense was against a Middleweight in Israel Adesanya. Blachowicz then lost the belt in his next match to Teixeira.
In his last fight, Blachowicz had his left eye cut early in the first round as the two fighters traded heavy shots early on. While his eye appeared to be bothering him, Blachowicz was still able to double up Rakic in striking in the round as he finished ahead 25-12. Rakic took Blachowicz down 30 seconds into round two and was able to control Blachowicz on the mat for the next four and a half minutes after escaping an initial triangle attempt from Blachowicz. After evening the fight at one round a piece on all three judges’ scorecards, Rakic suffered a freak knee injury to his back leg a minute into the third round as he took a step back and his knee just gave out. It was a disappointing way for the fight to end and the injury didn’t appear to be the result of any strike Blachowicz threw. Blachowicz finished ahead in significant strikes 31-27, while Rakic led in total strikes 61-53. Blachowicz never attempted a takedown, while Rakic landed one of his four attempts with four and a half minutes of control time.
Now 29-9 as a pro, Blachowicz has nine wins by KO, nine submissions, and 11 decisions. Seven of his nine submission wins came early in his career, in 2011 or prior. Blachowicz’s only finish to come beyond the second round was his recent R3 TKO resulting from a freak knee injury and seven of his last nine finishes ended in round two. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice, and has five decision losses. Two of the four times he’s been finished came early in his career, in a 2007 R1 kimura and a 2011 post round two TKO. His only TKO/KO loss since 2011 came in a 2019 early R3 TKO against Thiago Santos. His only submission loss since 2007 occurred in the second round of a 2021 match against Glover Teixeira.
After landing a knockout in his 2014 UFC debut, Blachowicz didn’t knock anybody else out in his next 10 fights before he knocked Luke Rockhold out in 2019. That was notably the only time Rockhold ever competed at 205 lb, after spending the rest of his career down at 185 lb. Blachowicz did have a couple of submission wins over that stretch for what it’s worth. While Blachowicz lost four of his first five UFC decisions he’s now won his last four trips to the judges, with his last two decision wins both going five rounds.
This will be the 8th five-round fight of Blachowicz’s career (5-2), with all of those matches taking place since 2019. His last six and seven of his last eight fights were scheduled to go five rounds. Two of his five-round fights went the distance (2-0), while the other five ended in under 12 minutes (3-2). Four of those five stoppages came in round two or the opening minute and a half of round three.
Overall, Blachowicz is a patient but powerful striker, and only two of his 18 UFC fights have ended in the first round (11%). Nine of his 18 UFC fights have gone the distance (50%), although seven of his last nine matches have ended early. While Blachowicz took an undersized Israel Adesanya down three times on five attempts, he hasn’t landed a takedown in his other seven most recent fights and only even attempted one in those matches. He’s only topped 100 significant strikes once in his career, which was when he landed 107 against Adesanya in a five-round decision win, and Blachowicz only averages 3.55 SSL/min and 2.77 SSA/min. Only 3 of his last 22 fights have ended in submissions (2-1), but Blachowicz is a BJJ black belt, although you wouldn’t know it if you watched his fight against Teixeira.
In his 18 UFC fights, Blachowicz has been taken down 16 times on 48 opponent attempts (66.7% defense). He’s been taken down at least once in each of his last two fights, and four of his last six opponents to try and take him down have been successful. The two exceptions were Jacare Souza and Luke Rockhold, who each went 0 for 5 on their attempts, but were both notably coming up from 185 lb to fight at 205 lb for the first and only time in their careers. Blachowicz has made a habit out of facing Middleweights who are trying their hand at Light Heavyweight, as four of his last eight fights have been against former Middleweights (Thiago Santos, Jacare Souza, Luke Rockhold, and Israel Adesanya), with the last three of those fighters only having the single Light Heavyweight fight on their records, whereas Santos stayed at Light Heavyweight. It’s pretty interesting that three of the last six wins for the former Light Heavyweight champion have been against opponents moving up from 185 lb to 205 lb for the first and only time in their careers.
Fight Prediction:
Ankalaev will have a 1” height advantage, but Blachowicz will have a 3” reach advantage. Ankalaev is nine years younger than the 39-year-old Blachowicz.
Blachowicz said he didn’t find out about being upgraded from the co-main event to a title fight until he landed in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago, showing just how little time these two have had to adjust for the additional two rounds of action. It’s funny to hear people talk about how Ankalaev hasn’t faced the same level of competition as Blachowicz considering three of Blachowicz’s last six wins came against 185 lb opponents trying out 205 lb for the first and only time in their careers. Blachowicz’s other three most recent wins came in a freak knee injury suffered by Aleksandar Rakic, a knockout win over Dominick Reyes, who’s lost four straight and has been knocked out in his last three, and another knockout win over Corey Anderson, who’s no longer in the UFC. In his last fight we saw Blachowicz get taken down and controlled for all of round two, and just before that, Blachowicz got taken down and controlled for the entire first round by Glover Teixeira. So neither his takedown defense nor his get up game have been very impressive lately and it would be wise of Ankalaev to utilize more of his Greco-Roman wrestling background here. While Ankalaev has been reluctant to rely much on his wrestling lately, he has landed at least one takedown in three of his last four fights, and landed a ground and pound TKO win in his last match after stuffing a takedown attempt from Anthony Smith. With that said, with this fight being switched from three rounds to five on short notice, it’s possible that Ankalaev will be looking to preserve his cardio by not wrestling, which is slightly concerning, but we still expect him to look to get this fight to the mat at some point. He’s also fully capable of winning a pure striking battle, but he’ll obviously need to be careful about the power coming back his way from Blachowicz. We like Ankalaev’s chances of finding a finish in the first half of this fight, most likely in rounds two or three.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 3.5 Rounds” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Ankalaev has largely been a R1 KO or bust DFS play throughout his career, averaging 114 DraftKings points in his three R1 KO victories, but just 85 points in his other six wins. While he was able to score 96 points in a second round TKO victory in his last outing and 97 points in a 2019 third round KO win, at his high price tag that’s still not enough for him to return value. He only scored 80 DraftKings points in a slow-paced five-round decision win over Thiago Santos in his second most recent fight, which was his only other five round fight in the UFC. The fact that this upcoming matchup was switched from three rounds to five on just a few weeks’ notice makes it unlikely that either guy will be able to push the pace for an extended period of time. They’re both patient fighters anyways, which makes it tougher to score well with either a finish beyond the first round or in a decision. Ankalaev does have a Greco-Roman wrestling background to potentially boost his scoring, but his takedown attempts have been somewhat scarce and sporadic. Nevertheless, his potential to wrestle at least creates some possibility for him to score decently beyond the first round. We’ve seen Blachowicz get taken down and controlled for entire rounds in each of his last two fights and it would make a lot of sense for Ankalaev to rely more heavily on his wrestling to negate the knockout power of Blachowicz. It’s still hard to rely on Ankalaev putting on a dominant wrestling performance considering he’s only landed more than one takedown in one of his 10 UFC fights, so we’re still treating him as a round one KO or bust option. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Blachowicz is coming off a third round TKO win that scored just 62 DraftKings points (the lowest winning score of his career), but still averages a decent but unspectacular 93 points in his 12 UFC wins. He did notably score just 65 points in a five-round split-decision win over Jacare Souza in 2019, but has shown the ability to score decently in decisions at other times in the past. Just keep in mind, all of the times he’s scored well in decisions have been when he’s found grappling success, and now he’ll face the rock-solid 86% takedown defense of Ankalaev. That will leave Blachowicz more reliant on finding a finish here and Ankalaev has never been knocked out. At Blachowicz’s cheap price tag, it’s harder for him to get left out of winning lineups if he does find a finish, but it’s certainly not impossible as he’s only averaged 88 DraftKings points in his five UFC finishes to come beyond the first round and has only landed one first round finish in his last 17 fights. If we get a high scoring slate with multiple underdogs going off, Blachowicz could easily get left out of winning lineups even if he does finish Ankalaev. Neither of these two land or absorb much striking volume, as Ankalaev averages just 3.64 SSL/min and 2.14 SSA/min, while Blachowicz averages 3.55 SSL/min and 2.77 SSA/min. And while Blachowicz is technically a BJJ black belt, the only opponent he’s taken down in his last eight fights is Middleweight Israel Adesanya, so we don’t see him adding much in terms of grappling in this matchup. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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