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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Mana Martinez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Martinez had originally been scheduled to face Jesse Strader and then Trevin Jones last week, but both of those fights fell through. First Strader dropped out and then Martinez was forced to withdraw due to COVID protocols as his coach, Saul Soliz, battled the virus and then tragically lost his life to it just two days before last week’s event. Martinez was actually announced as the replacement on this card for Mario Bautusta, who tested positive for COVID, on the day of Soliz’s death (August 19th). Martinez said he then considered withdrawing due to the circumstances but opted to dedicate his performance to his late coach instead. So after preparing for three different opponents in the past two weeks, on top of having his coach suddenly pass away just before Martinez was scheduled to make his UFC debut, Martinez is obviously dealing with a lot right now. It’s always hard to know how fighters will react to personal tragedies like this, which makes this a higher variance spot, but let’s take a look at what we do know, which is what got Martinez here.
After getting submitted in the first round by Drako Rodriguez in a September 2020 DWCS appearance, Martinez landed a pair of quick first round knockouts to get another crack at the UFC roster. Now 8-2 as a pro, all eight of Martinez’s pro wins have come by KO, with three in round two and five in round one, including three in 60 seconds or less. The only time he’s ever been to the judges came in his second pro fight back in 2017, when he lost a split-decision. His other nine fights have all ended in seven minutes or less, with his only other loss coming in his DWCS submission defeat. Six of his last seven fights haven’t even made it to the three minute mark of the first round.
Despite four of Martinez’s last five bookings falling through, he’s still managed to stay fairly active with two fights this year and one in 2020. He notably has a R1 KO win over TUF contestant Ricky Turcios, which is the only time Turcios has ever been finished in 12 pro fights. Martinez is an Orthadox fighter but will sometimes switch stances and has an incredibly dangerous left hand, which makes him tough to prepare for.
Martinez did notably miss weight by less than a pound for his second most recent fight, so it will be important to monitor him closely at weigh-ins, especially considering the two weeks he’s had.
UPDATE: Martinez missed weight badly, tipping the scales at 140 lb for this 135 lb fight.
Guido Cannetti
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Now 41 years old, Cannetti is coming off a 17 month layoff following a R1 KO loss to Danaa Batgerel. He also didn’t fight at all in 2019 following his previous November 2018 R2 Submission loss to Marlon Vera, so his only two fights in the last three years both ended in R1 losses. Following his first UFC win in a 2015 decision, Cannetti also didn’t compete in 2016 or 2017 before returning in 2018 to get submitted in the first round. He’s now fought just six times since joining the UFC in 2014 and hasn’t finished an opponent since 2013 in his last match before joining the organization.
With an 8-5 pro record, Cannetti has 14 years of pro experience, but just 13 fights over that time. Six of his wins have come early, with three KOs and three submissions, while his two career decision wins represent his only two victories in the UFC. All five of his pro losses have ended early, with four submissions and then the recent R1 KO. All four of his submission losses occurred in the first two rounds, with three coming by Rear-Naked Choke and one ending in a Triangle Choke. All seven (6-1) of his pre-UFC fights notably ended in the first round.
Cannetti has a Muay Thai background but has averaged 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes in his six UFC fights and he’s never landed more than 35 significant strikes or absorbed more than 32 in a fight with the organization. His two decision wins came in low-volume grappling heavy fights with large amounts of control time. While he’s never landed a knockdown in the UFC, he’s been knocked down himself in three of his six UFC fights.
Fight Prediction:
Martinez will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also 16 years younger than the 41-year-old Cannetti.
We have one fighter making his UFC debut following the sudden tragic death of his coach and on his third opponent in the last two weeks, going against a 41-year-old opponent who’s been finished in four of his six UFC fights and coming off a 17th month layoff. To say this is a high variance spot with a lot of variables involved is an understatement, but we still expect Martinez to come in and knock Cannetti out early. Cannetti got dropped with a lead left hook in his most recent loss, which looked a lot like something Martinez would throw and that’s our prediction for how this fight ends—Martinez dropping Cannetti in the first round with a left hand.
Unsurprisingly, our favorite bet here is “Martinez Wins by R1 KO” at +290, although you can also opt to go the more conservative route with his overall KO line at +115. You can also consider his R2 KO line at +600. And if you want to play it a little safer on those round props, we have no problem dropping down to his R1 and R2 win lines at +230 and +500 as there’s always a chance he lands his first career submission victory.
DFS Implications:
Martinez’s last seven fights (6-1) have all ended in six minutes or less so he clearly has massive upside and a good chance to hit it. He hasn’t been a high-volume striker or a takedown guy though so at his price he would either need a finish in the first round or multiple knockdowns and a later round finish to return value. Cannetti does average around three missed takedowns per fight, which could potentially bolster Martinez’s score some on FanDuel, but overall you’re playing him for his finishing ability which he has in spades. Nine of his 10 pro fights have ended in seven minutes or less, with Martinez landing knockouts victories in eight of those. The average fight time of his last seven wins is just two minutes and 13 seconds, and three of those knockouts have come in 60 seconds or less. So he’s clearly a candidate for the quick win bonus on DraftKings. He also gets a 41-year-old opponent who’s been finished in four of his six UFC fights and is coming off a 17 month layoff following a R1 KO loss. Working against Martinez, he’s making his short notice UFC debut and preparing for his third opponent in the last two weeks after he was forced to withdraw from last week’s card due to COVID protocols as his coach, Saul Soliz, battled the virus before passing away from it on August 19th. Martinez also notably missed weight badly for this fight, checking in at 140 lb for this 135 lb bout. So there is a ton at play here and this looks like a high variance spot with everything going on. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 54% chance to get a finish and a 27% chance it comes in R1.
Cannetti has failed to top 73 DraftKings points in any of his six UFC fights and really only makes sense as a contrarian play for tournaments in this high variance spot. However, It’s hard to get excited about playing a 41-year-old fighter coming off back-to-back early losses and a 17 month layoff. You’re really just betting on the moment being too big for Martinez with all of the things he has going on or for the weight miss to play a large factor, which are both certainly possible. The line has notably moved in Cannetti’s favor, but he’s still a sizable underdog. The odds now imply he has a 30% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #11
Jamall Emmers
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Emmers had been scheduled to fight Chas Skelly back in February, but just before he was set to walk out for the match he was forced to withdraw due to back spasms that he was suffering backstage. His opponent Skelly was already in the cage waiting so the scratch could not have come any later unless Emmers tripped walking up the stairs to the Octagon. So it’s now been just over a year since Emmers actually last competed.
His last fight was against Vince Cachero, who was making his UFC debut on extremely short notice, up a weight class and has now lost four of his last five fights. Emmers had originally been scheduled to face a significantly tougher opponent in Timur Valiev, who dropped out just days before the event. In Emmers’ previous fight, which was also his own UFC debut, Emmers lost a somewhat controversial low-volume split-decision to Giga Chikadze.
All three judges correctly ruled the first round for Chikadze and the third round for Emmers, but two of the judges ruled round two for Chikadze, while just one had it for Emmers, despite Emmers leading in significant strikes 14-12 and total strikes 15-13, while also landing a takedown and a minute and a half of control time. In fairness it was pretty close, but at least according to the stats Emmers should have won.
Despite having just two UFC fights under his belt, Emmers fought 21 times professionally before joining the UFC, and has over eight years of pro experience. He’s also fought several current UFC fighters outside of the organization, including a 2018 R2 KO loss to Julian Erosa, a 2017 decision win over Cory Sandhagen, a 2016 R5 KO loss to Thiago Moises, and a 2013 decision win over Alexander Hernandez.
Following his 2018 R2 KO loss to Julian Erosa on DWCS, Emmers won four straight fights outside of the UFC, including three KOs and a submission, before finally getting invited into the big show. Emmers has now won 9 of his last 11 fights and it easily could have been 10 if the decision against Chikadze had gone his way.
Of Emmers’ 18 career wins, 10 have come early with seven KOs and three submissions. On the other side of things, he’s been finished early in three of his five losses, with two KOs and one submission. His submission loss came in a 2015 R2 Triangle Choke.
Emmers successfully defended both of the takedown attempts against him in his last match and the one in his DWCS fight, but wasn’t forced to defend any in his debut, so his 100% takedown defense is based on very limited data. He does notably have a wrestling background, although not to the same extent as his next opponent.
Pat Sabatini
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Fresh off a decision win in his April 2021 UFC debut against a tough grinder in Tristan Connelly, Sabatini broke his streak of four straight fights to end early. Connelly notably was moving all the way down from 170 lb to 145 lb, but generally fights at 155 lb and has competed at 145 lb twice in the past. Sabatini controlled Connelly for the majority of the fight as he ended with just under 10 minutes of control time, with one knockdown and one takedown on five attempts. He led in significant strikes just 26-19, while Connelly actually led in total strikes 87-73 and also landed his only takedown attempt. Sabatini had previously been scheduled to make his UFC debut back in February, but his opponent missed weight by the equivalent of a small child and the fight was canceled.
A submission specialist, BJJ black belt, and former D1 wrestler, 11 of Sabatini’s 14 wins have come early, with nine submissions and two KOs. All of those finishes occurred in the first two rounds. Six of those submissions were by Rear-Naked Choke, while he also has a pair of Heel Hooks and an Armbar. The only time he's ever been finished himself came in a 2020 TKO due to a gnarly dislocated elbow. He’s also lost two decisions and now holds a 14-3 pro record with his only early loss coming in the freak accident arm injury.
In his last fight before joining the UFC, Sabatini got his opponent to the mat early and spent nearly the entire first round hunting for submissions in control on the ground. Ten seconds into the second round he had his opponent right back down on the mat and submitted him soon after with an Armbar.
In his fight prior to that, Sabatini was returning from the dislocated elbow he suffered in a February 2020 match. Sabatini looked no worse for the wear and finished his opponent on the feet this time, showing that he also has some striking ability. Sabatini also notably submitted current UFC fighter Tony Gravely back in 2015 in the first round with a Rear-Naked Choke.
Fight Prediction:
Emmers will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This sets up for a fun matchup between two fighters with wrestling backgrounds. While Sabatini had the more celebrated wrestling career, Emmers looks to be the better striker and should hold an advantage on the feet. So it would make sense for Emmers to use his wrestling more defensively as he should want to keep this fight standing. We haven’t seen Emmers go against a grappler yet in the UFC, so it’s really hard to know how his wrestling will stack up. He at least has the potential to somewhat negate Sabatini’s grappling, but it’s also entirely possible that Sabatini is able to dominate him on the ground. That unknown makes this a high-variance spot, but we fully expect Emmers to get the best of the striking exchanges and for Sabatini to take control if the fight hits the canvas. So the outcome of this fight will really just come down to where it takes place—on the feet or the mat. We’ll give the slight edge to Emmers, most likely by decision, based on his striking advantage, but this feels close to a coin flip and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Sabatini land a submission or grind out another grappling decision.
If Emmers wins it will likely come in a decision, but we don’t see much value in his +120 decision line so we’re leaving that alone. Instead we’re taking a few stabs on Sabatini’s side with “Sabatini Wins by Submission” at +500, “Sabatini Wins by R1 Submission” at +1200 and “Sabatini R2 Win” at +1400. You can also consider his ITD line at +390 as he does have a couple of KO wins on his record.
DFS Implications:
Emmers scored 109 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel in his recent lopsided decision win, but only scored 36 DraftKings and 44 points on FanDuel in his prior split-decision loss. So even if that decision had gone his way he still would have scored just 66 and 64 points. So that gives you an idea on his range in decision wins, which appears pretty wide. While over half of his career wins have come early, Sabatini has never truly been finished outside of a freak arm injury, so this looks like a tough spot for Emmers to excel. It’s unlikely he’ll be the one instigating the grappling exchanges, but he should score from takedowns defended to boost his FanDuel total. Sabatini’s wrestling heavy fighting style will likely limit the number of significant strikes landed in this match, leaving Emmers reliant on a finish to really score well. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 18% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Sabatini’s grappling heavy fighting style is much better fit for the DraftKings scoring system, but the fact that 11 of his 14 pro wins have come early—all in the first two rounds—makes him an intriguing underdog play on both sites. While this should prove to be one of Sabatini’s toughest tests to date, he does notably have a 2015 R1 submission win over current UFC fighter Tony Gravely and then dominated on the mat in his recent UFC debut. We don’t really know how good Emmers’ defensive grappling is, as it’s yet to be tested at the UFC level, but he does have a background in wrestling, so this is by no means an easy matchup for Sabatini. Nevertheless, we like his upside and he makes for a nice cheap play on both sites, in somewhat of a high-variance spot where he could dominate on the ground or get exposed on the feet. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 8% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #10
JJ Aldrich
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Aldrich had been scheduled to face Tracy Cortez here, but Cortez withdrew citing an injury and Demopoulos stepped into her UFC debut on short notice.
Coming off a low-volume split-decision win over Courtney Casey, Aldrich somewhat surprisingly implemented a grappling heavy game plan as she landed 4 takedowns on 7 attempts with nearly six minutes of control time. Casey finished ahead in significant strikes 55-45, but Aldrich led in total strikes 121-58. Casey had notably been dominated on the ground in her previous fight against Gillian Robertson, so it makes sense that Aldrich would come in looking to grapple, we just hadn’t seen much grappling out of Aldrich leading up to that.
Prior to that fight, Aldrich had landed a total of two takedowns across her previous seven UFC fights and has primarily been a striker throughout her UFC career. Seven of her eight UFC fights have ended in decisions, with the one exception being a 2019 R2 KO loss to Maycee Barber.
Aldrich made her UFC debut in 2016 and lost a grappling heavy decision against Juliana Lima. She then won three straight decisions before losing by TKO to Barber and then alternating decision wins and losses over her last three fights.
Aldrich notably trains at elevation in Colorado, so she should have solid cardio later in fights. She has decent boxing, and does have a pair of R1 KOs on her record, but those both came prior to joining the UFC against a lower level of competition. She’s now 9-4 as a pro, with seven decisions to go along with the pair of KOs. She doesn’t really pose any sort of submission threat. She’s been finished in two of her four career losses, with the 2019 R2 TKO to Barber and a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss in her second pro fight.
Aldrich started her career at 115 lb, briefly moved up to 125 lb in 2016 for one fight and then moved back down to 115 where she fought her first 4 UFC matches (3-1). However, her last four fights have all been up at 125 lb (2-2), where this next fight will also be.
Vanessa Demopoulos
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Demopoulos originally attempted to punch her ticket to the UFC through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a smothering decision to Cory McKenna and was forced to return to the LFA where she had just won the vacant Strawweight belt in her previous fight with a R4 submission against Sam Hughes. Upon her return to the LFA, Demopoulos lost a brawling five round decision in another Strawweight LFA title fight against Lupita Godinez, which was her third straight fight against an opponent who’s now in the UFC. Demopoulos then bounced back with a 37 second R1 KO victory against Cynthia Arceo in her most recent match. Arceo notably missed weight by almost 3 lb for that fight and has now lost three of her last four fights and was clearly one of Demopoulos’ easier opponents.
A BJJ brown belt, Demopoulos is primarily a grappler but doesn’t mind mixing it up on the feet. She’s not a very technical striker however, and tends to be very hittable. She’s now 6-3 as a pro, with three wins by submission, two by decision and one KO. All three of her career losses have ended in decisions, with two of her three career losses coming in her last three fights.
Demopoulos is notably moving up a weight class for this fight and has never competed at 125 lb before. That in combination with this being her short notice UFC debut makes this a high-variance spot.
Fight Prediction:
Aldrich will have a 3” height advantage and massive 8” reach advantage.
It appears clear that Aldrich will have a striking advantage in this fight, while Demopoulos is the more dangerous of the two on the ground. So we don’t expect Aldrich to be looking to take the fight to the mat the way she was in her last fight. Despite being more of a grappler, we’ve seen Demopoulos be content with keeping fights on the feet, so it’s hard to know what exactly her strategy will be here. Aldrich isn’t such a dominant striker that Demopoulos will automatically be looking to grapple and this has the potential to turn into a stand up brawl. We like Aldrich to win a decision, but if it ends early it will most likely be from an Aldrich KO or potentially a Demopoulos submission.
While we expect Aldrich to win a decision here, we’re not betting that at -170. Instead you should consider “Aldrich Wins by KO” at +500, “Aldrich Wins by R1 KO” at +1200, or “Demopoulos Wins by Submission” at +1000.
DFS Implications:
Aldrich has never been one to score well in DFS. In her five UFC wins, she put up DK/FD scores of 81/74, 69/70, 59/56, 63/61 and 69/79. So she’s yet to ever score well on either site. She’s only landed above 58 significant strikes once in her career and averages just 3.76 SSL/min. The one thing working in her favor is that now she gets a UFC newcomer who took the fight on short notice and is moving up a weight class, so this looks to be a favorable matchup for DFS production. However, Aldrich’s lofty price tag will likely still require her to land a finish to score well, something she hasn’t done in her last nine fights dating back to 2016. Demopoulos has also never been finished and notably went five hard rounds with another strong boxer in Lupita Godinez. So even though there’s a great chance Aldrich sets a new career high in DFS scoring, she’s still unlikely to score enough to end up in winning lineups without a finish. It is very possible she boosts her FanDuel score with takedowns defended against the grappler in Demopoulos, but we’ve seen Demopoulos be spotty with her takedown attempts so it’s not a guarantee that she’ll shoot for a ton. The odds imply Aldrich has a 76% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Demopoulos has the ability to get in brawls on the feet or go for submissions on the mat, so theoretically she has some DFS upside, but she’s not overly talented in either area so it’s hard to get excited about her prospects coming into her short notice UFC debut, fighting up a weight class, and going against a UFC veteran—albeit not a great one. It also seems like every time we get a short notice replacement female fighter making their UFC debut they get absolutely murdered, so it’s hard to get excited about Demopoulos’ chances. Overall we’re treating this as a high variance spot with a low floor and a low median projection, but tournament winning upside. Both fighters project to go low owned so it’s easy to get leverage over the field. The odds imply Demopoulos has a 24% chance to win, a 11% chance to get a finish and a 5% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #9
Dustin Jacoby
6th UFC Fight (2-2-1)Coming off a somewhat disappointing draw against Ion Cutelaba, Jacoby showed off his toughness just to survive the opening round as Cutelaba took him down 8 times on 11 attempts in the first five minutes, while landing heavy elbows in what appeared to be a 10-8 round. Jacoby bounced back and led in striking for the remainder of the match while stuffing seven of Cutelaba’s next eight takedown attempts in the later two rounds. The fight ended in a split-decision draw with Jacoby ahead in significant strikes 84-71, but Cutelaba leading in total strikes 111-100 and in takedowns 9-1 on a ridiculous 19 attempts compared to just three attempts by Jacoby. It’s worth pointing out that Jacoby accepted that fight on less than two week’s notice, so simply fighting three really tough rounds and finishing the match as the fresher fighter deserves some praise.
In Jacoby’s second most recent fight, Grishin missed weight badly, tipping the scales at 210.5 lb for the 205 lb match, and looking massive on fight day. That already looked like a tough matchup for Jacoby to land a finish, so adding to the size difference likely didn’t help any. Grishin started hot, landing two knockdowns in the first round, but Jacoby bounced back and appeared to win the second round. The third round was close, but all three judges gave it to Jacoby and he went on to win a unanimous decision, despite being knocked down twice in the first five minutes. Grishin appeared shocked by the results, but he should have done more in the last two rounds if he wanted to secure a victory. Grishin did come out slightly ahead in significant strikes 66-57, but Jacoby destroyed his calf throughout the fight. Grishin’s size appeared to give Jacoby a lot of trouble, but going into this next fight Jacoby will have the height and reach advantage.
Jacoby originally joined the UFC in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was let go after losing his first two fights—one in a decision and the other by a R3 Guillotine Choke. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights with three R1 KO wins, three decision victories, one decision loss, a R2 KO loss, and a R2 submission loss. He also stepped away from MMA entirely to try kickboxing for a four year period from 2015 to 2019, where he also went 6-3—including a win over UFC fighter Karl Roberson.
Upon returning to MMA in 2019, Jacoby won a pair of decisions, including a high-volume win on DWCS in August 2020. In that fight, he put on an impressive striking display with 117 significant strikes landed while only absorbing 30. He also notched a knockdown and went 1 for 1 on takedowns, while impressively defending 10 of his opponents 11 takedown attempts. His striking looked remarkably improved since his 2011-2012 tape and his kickboxing experience was evident. Of some concern, he did look like he punched himself out late in the second round after starting the fight at an unsustainable pace. Despite the DWCS fight ending in a decision, Jacoby was still awarded a UFC contract.
So after nearly nine years away from the organization, Jacoby made the most of his second opportunity in the UFC and knocked out Justin Ledet midway through the first round of his first fight back. Jacoby was able to knock Ledet down with a series of leg kicks and then land several heavy ground strikes before smartly stepping back, forcing Ledet to attempt to return to his feet, and then finishing him with one final strike just as he got back up.
Ten of Jacoby’s 14 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and one submission. Nine of those 10 finishes notably occurred in the first round. Three of his five career losses have also come early, with a 2012 R3 Guillotine Choke, a 2014 R2 KO and a 2015 R2 Rear-Naked Choke.
In Jacoby’s first stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however he’s since moved up to 205 lb in his return to MMA. Jacoby acknowledged that he probably wasn’t ready for the UFC at 23 years old and lacked the confidence required. He says he’s in a much better place now and is ready to make a run. He won four fights in a row leading up to his recent draw, although three of those ended in decisions. His last two pro MMA losses both came in the second round of Bellator fights back in 2014 and 2015.
Darren Stewart
15th UFC Fight (5-7, 2 NC)After getting bailed out by an illegal knee in a fight where he was on the verge of being finished in the first round against Eryk Anders this past March, Stewart lost the rematch in a June low-volume decision. The first fight took place at 185 lb, but they ran it back up at 205 lb, where Saturday’s match will also be. In the rematch, Anders led in significant strikes just 44-33, but in total strikes 112-63. Stewart landed 2 of 4 takedowns, while Anders went 0 for 4, but did have a reversal and finished with over eight minutes of control time.
In Stewart’s previous fight against Anders, both guys came out swinging and Stewart actually landed some early shots, but Anders dropped Stewart late in the first round with a stiff left hand and appeared moments away from finishing him with ground and pound. However, Stewart was able to hang on and as he tried to stand up, Anders landed a knee near Stewart’s head while he was still grounded that looked dangerously close to being illegal, but the action continued. Stewart then did manage to return to his feet as Anders laid it on thick, with Stewart simply in survival mode. With 30 seconds left Anders curiously decided to go for a takedown opposed to continuing to punish Stewart on the fence. He didn’t get Stewart all the way down, but put him back down on one knee and then Anders foolishly kneed the downed Stewart in the head and this time Herb Dean did stop the action and the doctor called the fight.
Stewart actually started his pro career off fighting at 205 lb, where he won his first seven fights with five KO’s, including four in the first round, and two decisions. Then he joined the UFC in 2016 and initially stayed at 205 lb. His first UFC fight was ruled a “No Contest” due to an accidental clash of heads, but they ran that fight back and Stewart ended up losing a decision. Following his first career loss, Stewart dropped down to 185 lb, where he fought his next 11 fights, going 5-5-1 plus another No Contest.
Stewart started his UFC career off with three straight losses following the No Contest in his UFC debut. Two of those three losses ended in submissions, which remain the only two times Stewart has been finished in his career. He was able to right the ship somewhat, landing R2 KOs in each of his next two fights following the string of losses, however, he then lost a decision against Shahbazyan. He bounced back from that loss with a pair of decision wins in 2019.
When the UFC was temporarily shut down in the Spring of 2020 due to COVID, Stewart opted to fight on Cage Warriors, and lost in a smothering decision against Bartosz Fabinski. He then returned to the UFC with a R1 submission win over Maki Pitolo. That was notably Stewart’s first career submission win and only early win going back to 2018.
He then lost a decision to Kevin Holland before the recent two fights against Anders. Not counting the No Contest, six of Stewart’s last seven fights have ended in decisions, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 Guillotine Choke Submission victory over Maki Pitolo. While he’s a powerful striker, a black belt in Taekwondo and two-thirds of his career wins have come early, Stewart has mostly struggled to land finishes lately and has settled into being a decision fighter.
Fight Prediction:
Jacoby will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
While Jacoby landed an impressive R1 KO in his long awaited return to the UFC, he’s now fought to decisions in four of his last five fights and is going against an opponent in Stewart who’s never been knocked out in his career. So this looks like another tough spot for Jacoby to get a finish, but we did see Stewart hurt badly in the first round against Anders in their initial fight. Jacoby has just one career win beyond the first round, which came in a 2011 R2 TKO by doctor stoppage. So if he can’t get it done in the first, we expect him to win a decision.
Our favorite two bets here are “Jacoby Wins by Decision” at +175 and “Jacoby Wins by R1 KO” at +650.
DFS Implications:
Jacoby put up a huge score in his October 2020 R1 KO of Justin Ledet in a near best case scenario outcome where he was able to land two consecutive knockdowns to finish the fight in the first round. However, four of his other most recent five fights have gone the distance and he appears unlikely to score well in DFS without a finish. Jacoby is a good striker and entirely capable of finishing lower level opponents, but he doesn’t appear to be the type of guy that runs through tougher competition. Jacoby totaled just 55 DraftKings points and 60 points on FanDuel in his last decision win and just 45 DraftKings points, but 86 FanDuel points in his recent draw. That FanDuel score was propped up by 10 takedowns defended, which is a bit of an anomaly that you shouldn’t expect to see again here. With that said, Stewart averages four takedown attempts per 15 minutes and holds just a 41% takedown accuracy, so Jacoby could defend a few and overall does appear to be a better play on FanDuel. Still, Jacoby will struggle to return value on either site without an early finish. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 28% chance to end it early and a 10% chance to win in the first round.
Here are Stewart’s DK/FD scores in his five UFC wins beginning with the most recent: 96/113 (R1 SUB), 63/87 (DEC), 47/53 (DEC), 92/110 (R2 KO) and 94/119 (R2 KO). So our takeaways are that he always scores better on FanDuel compared to DraftKings, but can’t score well on either site in a decision. And while he does occasionally land a finish, he still hasn’t scored great on DraftKings even when he does. His last R1 KO came in 2016, prior to joining the UFC, and now he gets a larger opponent who’s only been knocked out once in his career. So this looks like a tough matchup for Stewart to succeed. The only two arguments that can be made for playing Stewart in DFS are that he’s now fairly cheap and will be a low-owned contrarian play after his poor showing in his last few fights. However, even at his cheaper price tag Stewart will still need a finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #8
Wellington Turman
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Coming off back-to-back R1 KO losses, Turman got back to his grappling in his most recent loss, but still succumbed to the same fate. He shot for his first takedown just 12 seconds into the first round, but failed to get his opponent, Bruno Silva, down to the mat with any sort of control. Turman was able to take Silva’s back at multiple points on the feet, but couldn’t lock up a submission and eventually got too high and fell off the top as Silva leaned forward. Silva was then impressively able to knock Turman out cold from top position on the ground as he kneeled in Turman’s open gaurd. The fight ended with just 15 seconds remaining in the first round after Turman controlled nearly the entire period. Turman amazingly finished 0 for 10 on his takedown attempts and with just a single significant strike to Silva’s 19. That was the second straight fight that Turman was knocked out in the final minute of the first round, but also just the second early loss of his career.
Looking back one fight further, Turman was knocked out in the first round by wrestler Andrew Sanchez. The two grapplers came out throwing heavy shots and Sanchez handed Turman his first early loss with a late R1 KO that left Turman out cold on the mat. Sanchez outlanded Turman 28-21 in significant strikes and 40-26 in total strikes, while both fighters failed on their lone takedown attempts. So Turman has now concerningly been knocked unconscious twice in the last 12 and half months.
Prior to that, all three of his career losses had gone the distance, while 11 of his 16 pro wins had come early, including four KOs and seven submissions. However, three of his last four wins have notably gone the distance. Also, all four of his KOs occurred earlier in his career from 2014-2016. Six of his seven submission wins have come in the first round, with the one exception occurring in his 2014 pro debut. Four of his submissions have come by Rear-Naked Choke, while the other three were Guillotine Chokes.
Following an April 2019 first round submission win, Turman made his July 2019 UFC debut against Karl Roberson. Turman was able to ground Roberson four times on seven attempts and win the control time battle 6:53-5:47, but Roberson outlanded Turman 50-25 in significant strikes and 79-38 in total strikes on his way to winning a split-decision.
Turman bounced back with a unanimous 30-27 decision win over Markus Perez in another grappling heavy battle. Turman landed just two takedowns on nine attempts, but stuffed Perez’s only shot and led in control time 6:41-1:21. The striking was almost dead even, with Perez leading in significant strikes 49-48 and Turman leading in total strikes 59-56. That was Turman’s only win in his four UFC fights and it’s a little surprising he’s even getting a fifth opportunity.
Sam Alvey
22nd UFC Fight (10-10-1)Also struggling to locate a win, Alvery has gone 0-5-1 in his last six fights. He notably dropped back down to 185 lb for his last match, but it didn’t improve his results any as he was choked unconscious in the second round by Julian Marquez. That was just the second time Alvery has been submitted in 49 pro fights, although it was very nearly a TKO stoppage before Marquez decided to finish it with a choke instead of ground and pound after dropping Alvey.
The last time Alvey won a fight at 185 lb was in a 2017 decision against an aging Rashad Evans in his second to last pro fight before retiring. Alvey’s last three wins at 185 lb all went the distance and the last time he finished anybody in the weight class was in a 2016 R2 KO against Kevin Casey, who was released following the loss and finished 1-2-1 with a pair of No Contests in the UFC.
Alvey’s best result in his last six fights came in his last outing when he fought Da Un Jung to a draw. Alvey’s most recent win at any weight was all the way back in 2018 when he defeated Gian Villante by decision after knocking out Marcin Prachnio in the first round of his prior match. Following the pair of 2018 wins, Alvey was knocked out twice, before losing a pair of decisions leading up to the draw in his second most recent fight.
Alvey does have six finishes in the UFC, but five of those came in his first eight UFC fights, and he only has one since. Five of his six early wins in the UFC came in the first round, with the other occuring in the second. Five of those finishes were by KO, while the sixth was by Guillotine Choke. After showing some finishing ability early in his UFC career, 9 of his last 13 fights have gone to the judges.
Despite his recent struggles, Alvey has historically been a tough guy to finish. He’s only been knocked out three times in his 49 pro fights: 2015 R1 by Derek Brunson, 2018 R2 by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and 2019 R1 by Jimmy Crute. And he’s only been submitted one other time prior to his recent R2 loss, which came against Gerald Meerschaert in a 2010 R5 Guillotine Choke.
Alvey started his pro career at 185 lb, but moved up to the 205 lb division in 2018 after suffering a decision loss to Ramazeen Emeev. Following the move Alvey went 2-4-1, winning his first two after the move, but then dropping four in a row before fighting to a draw and then dropping back down to 185 lb. It’s hard to imagine he’s not fighting for his job here, but the UFC has given him a very long leash.
Fight Prediction:
Alvey will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, but Turman is 10 years younger than the 35-year-old Alvey.
It’s somewhat surprising that the UFC continues to give each of these two opportunities as going into his last fight we expected Turman to get cut with another loss as most fighters who start 1-3 do. On the other side of things, Alvey hasn’t won a fight since a year before Turman even joined the organization, so at some point you have to think the UFC will say enough is enough with the long time veteran. There’s a good chance the loser of this match does get cut, so both guys should assume they’re fighting for their jobs. That should leave Turman once again looking to grapple, while Alvey counter punches and defends takedowns. While ALvey has generally been pretty durable, Turman has a glass chin and could be exactly what Alvey needs to finally notch a win. Five of Alvey’s last six KOs have come in the first round, as have Turman’s last two losses, so despite Alvey’s recent struggles that actually seems like a very possible outcome. We could also see both guys approaching this fight more cautiously after they each ended up unconscious to finish their last fights, so nothing would really surprise us here. Turman failed to capitalize on an easy submission opportunity in his last fight so we’ve essentially lost all confidence in him. However, he does have seven submission wins on his record, including two by Rear-Naked Choke and Alvey has two Rear-Naked Choke Submission losses on his record, including a makeshift one in his last fight. So an Alvery KO win, a Turman submission victory or a low-volume decision are the three potential outcomes we’re expecting. If we had to rank those in terms of likelihood, it would be decision (most likely), KO, submission. For Alvey to win the decision he needs to keep the fight standing and keep Turman off his back on the feet. And for Turman to win he needs to do just the opposite.
Our favorite bets here are “Alvey ITD” at +270, “Alvey R1 Win” at +650, “Turman Wins by Submission” at +500 and “Turman Wins by R1 Submission” at +1200.
DFS Implications:
Turman has yet to score well in DFS, but his grappling heavy fighting style definitely lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system. He attempted a ridiculous 10 takedowns in the first round of his last fight, but miserably failed on all 10 attempts. So the potential for grappling stats are there if he can ever actually execute, although Alvey rarely gets taken down and owns an 82% takedown defense. We’re definitely not excited about Turman here, but he is facing an aging veteran who hasn’t won a fight in three years and both of these guys should go low owned in DFS, so they each make for interesting tournament plays. Turman will need a finish to return value barring a completely dominating wrestling performance, which is unlikely. The odds imply Turman has a 56% chance to win, a 31% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in the first round.
Alvey similarly needs a finish to score well and hasn’t topped 62 DraftKings points in his last seven fights. In fairness, he doesn’t have a win in his last six. However, he hasn’t scored about 33 DraftKings points in any of those losses and three of the last four went the distance. So even if those decisions had gone his way he would have still scored horribly. Alvey’s counterpunching fighting style doesn’t lend itself to high striking volume as he’s failed to land more than 63 significant strikes in his last 20 fights. He’s also only absorbed more than 61 in a single fight during that stretch which occurred in 2016 when Alex Nicholson landed 82. Alvery averages just 3.2 SSL/min and 3.44 SSA/min. He’s also landed just one takedown in 21 UFC matches, so don’t count on him adding anything in the grappling department. However, with an 82% takedown defense he’s a tough guy to get down and he’s only been taken down three times in his last eight fights and 10 times in his total 21 UFC fights. Now going against the 22% takedown accuracy of Wellington Turman who averages a slate-leading 11 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, Alvery has the potential to notch double digit takedowns defended, which greatly raises his scoring potential on FanDuel. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #7
Alessio Di Chirico
10th UFC Fight (4-5)Di Chirico had been scheduled to face Aliaskhab Khizriev on this card, but after Khizriev and Antonio Braga Neto both withdrew the UFC paired up their two remaining opponents.
Di Chirico is coming off his first win in his last four fights as he appeared to land somewhat of a lucky shot to finish Joaquin Buckley, who may have been a little overly aggressive after landing a pair of his own knockouts—including the knockout of the year in 2020 against Impa Kasanganay. Di Chirico connected with his lower shin to the side of Buckley's head midway through the first round, however it almost looked like Di Chirico was attempting to throw a kick to the body and Buckley ducked and leaned his head right into the kick in the worst possible way. Di Chirico’s previous four fights all went the distance (1-3) and he has in no way looked like any sort of finishing threat. In his nine UFC fights he now has two KO wins and one submission loss. His other six UFC fights all ended in decisions (2-4). His only other early UFC KO win came in 2017 against Oluwale Bamgbose, who went 1-4 in the UFC before he was released following the loss to Di Chirico. Bamgbose dove head first into a Di Chirico knee as if he was trying to put himself out of his misery.
Prior to his recent win, Di Chirico had lost three straight low-volume decisions after winning a split decision against Julian Marquez in 2018. In fact, both of Di Chirico’s UFC decision wins were split, while all four of his decision losses were unanimous. So he easily could have one or two more decision losses on his record. The only time Di Chirico has been finished early in his 18 pro fight career was a 2017 R1 Triangle Choke Submission against Eric Spicely. Di Chirico has never been knocked out and notably survived to see decisions against Julian Marquez (6 KOs & 3 Subs in 9 career wins), Kevin Holland (12 of 21 career wins by KO), and Makhmud Muradov (17 of 25 career wins by KO), before recently defeating Buckley (9 of 12 career wins by KO).
Holland notably dislocated his shoulder half way through the fight against Di Chirico, but still managed to win a decision over Di Chirico with one hand essentially tied behind his back. Di Chirico showed a super low fight IQ, failing to take advantage of the injury even in the slightest.
While Di Chirico does have six KOs and four submission wins on his record, eight of those 10 wins came in his first eight pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 5-2, 0-0, 5-2-1, and 17-11-3. Four of those guys never fought again and one of them only fought once more in another loss. Di Chirico’s four UFC wins have come against: Garreth McLellan (1-4 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), Oluwale Bamgbose (1-4 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), Julian Marquez in a questionable split decision that one judge ruled 30-27 for Marquez and Joaquin Buckley, who’s been knocked out in three of his four career losses.
Di Chirico is a tentative low-volume striker, who tends to suck the energy out of fights, which generally leads to disappointing decisions. In his second most recent fight, the ref was yelling at the fighters for more action and could be heard barking “let’s fight!” in the early to mid stages, and then pleading with them to “pick up the pace, engage” in a more dejected tone towards the end of the match.
Cummings did notably drop Di Chirico with a left kick to the chin right at the final horn, which left Di Chirico stumbling and some confusion (at least in Cumming’s mind) as to whether the fight was called or if it was going to the judges.
Abdul Razak Alhassan
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Alhassan had been scheduled to face Antonio Braga Neto last week and then again this week, but Neto withdrew from both.
Desperate for a win after suffering three straight losses since returning in 2020 from an extended layoff, Alhassan moved up from Welterweight (170 lb) to Middleweight (185 lb) in his last fight after missing weight for his previous two matches. The move up in weight didn’t appear to do Alhassan any favors as he looked like a far less explosive lumbering ghost of his past self. In fairness, he went up against a constant barrage of takedowns throughout the fight and never even really got started with his striking. He lost a smothering decision against Jacob Malkoun, who was coming off an 18 second R1 KO loss in his debut against Phil Hawes. The low-volume grappling match ended with Malkoun ahead in significant strikes 27-21 and in total strikes 91-32. Malkoun landed 8 of a ridiculous 24 takedown attempts along with nearly 12 minutes of control time and a pair of submission attempts.
Despite the loss and how bad he looked, Alhassan is staying at 185 lb, where he’s now 2-1 in his career, but 0-1 in the UFC. His first two fights at Middleweight were in 2015 and 2016 and he won both by R1 KO, as he has with all 10 of his career wins. All three of his career fights to make it out of the first round have ended in decision losses.
Prior to the recent decision loss, Alhassan suffered the first early loss of his career when Khaos Williams hit him with a cattle prod early in R1 that ended the fight in just 30 seconds. Prior to that, Alhassan sort of reassembled his former self in the first round of the Lazzez fight, which was Alhassan’s first fight back after a 22 month layoff, but looked to run out of gas early and Lazzez dominated the fight from that point on and won a decision.
After starting his career off 10-1, with 10 R1 KO wins, Alhassan is now 10-4 and clinging on to his job. It’s been almost three years since Alhassan won a fight, and at 36 years old you have to wonder if he still has anything left.
Fight Prediction:
Di Chirico will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 35-year-old Alhassan.
We’re not reading too much into Di Chirico’s recent KO win as it seemed like more of a fluke than anything else. He’s still the same slow paced boring decision fighter he’s always been. He averages just 3.30 SSL/min and 3.24 SSA/min, while tacking on 1.6 takedowns per 15 minutes. It’s certainly possible that Alhassan one again gasses out after the first round, but Di Chirico’s slower pace has the potential to extend Alhassan’s gas tank. Di Chirico did shoot for more takedowns early in his UFC career, but has gone 0 for 4 in his last three fights so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to capitalize on Alhassan’s clear weakness on the mat. If Di Chirico comes in with a smart game plan, he should be able to win a grappling heavy decision, but if he opts to stand and trade with Alhassan it’s hard to say who will win between these two unimpressive fighters. This is a gross fight that will likely disappoint between an overweight, washed up power puncher and a boring decision machine. We’ll give the slight edge to Di Chirico to win a decision as long as he can survive the first round, but we wish we could bet against both of these guys.
We have little interest in putting money on either of these two, but it’s hard to pass on Alhassan R1 KO line at +650 considering all 10 of his career wins have come by R1 KO. Considering Di Chirico has gone 2-4 in hsi six UFC decisions with the two wins both being split, our super gross play here is “Alhassan Wins by Decision” at +700, but it’s a pure value play and we don’t really expect it to hit. The safer bet we’re looking at is “Fight Goes the Distance” at +112 as each of these two have only been finished once in their respective careers and neither is looking very dangerous right now.
DFS Implications:
Despite going to six decisions in his nine UFC fights, neither Di Chirico nor his opponents have ever landed more than 65 significant strikes. No one has landed a takedown in his last three matches, and even the R2 KO earlier in his career still scored just 87 DraftKings points and 100 points on FanDuel. He’s coming off the first usable score of his career, so his ownership should get a slight bump from the near single digits that it normally dwells near, which makes him even less of an exciting play. However, working in Di Chirico’s favor, in Alhassan’s three career decision losses his opponents have put up DK/FD scores of 115/94, 101/112 and 100/87. All three of those included at least four takedowns and large amounts of control time as the game plan to defeat Alhassan appears clear. While Di Chirico landed 11 takedowns across his first six UFC fights, he’s failed to land any on four attempts in his last three matches and owns just a 45% career takedown accuracy. But if one of his coaches can hammer it into his thick skull that he needs to take this fight to the ground early and often then he has the potential to score decently in a grappling heavy decision, especially on DraftKings. With that said, we still don’t have much interest in playing Di Chirico at his price tag and think he more likely than not fails to return value. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 32% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1. That ITD seems strangely high if you ask us.
Alhassan is your prototypical R1 KO or bust fighter with all 10 of his career wins coming by R1 KO. His four UFC wins have returned DK/FD scores of 131/124, 107/123, 121/140 and 150/143. So when he wins, he does so in spectacular fashion. However, all of those wins occurred from 2016 to 2018 and Alhassan has yet to regain the form that made him a name in the UFC prior to an extended layoff from 2018-2020. Now at 36 years old and three years removed from his last knockout victory, it’s more than fair to wonder if he ever will. Yes, his first 10 career wins all came by R1 KO, but at what point do you stop chasing ghosts? This will be his second UFC fight at 185 lb, and he looked heavy and slow in his first. Alhassan was absurdly 58% owned on DraftKings for his second most recent fight and was still 48% owned in his last match, even after getting violently cadavered by Khaos Williams. It will be interesting to see where he ends up now after three straight losses, but also at an extremely cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #6
Makhmud Muradov
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Coming off his second straight R3 KO victory, Muradov has knocked out five of his last six opponents with the one exception coming against Alessio Di Chirico in Muradov’s 2019 UFC debut. He’s impressively won 14 straight fights with 11 of those ending in knockouts (R1 x4, R2 x3 & R3 x4) and three in decisions. While he only has three UFC fights under his belt, he owns an impressive 25-6 pro record, that includes 17 KO wins, three by submission and five decisions. He has one TKO loss on his record, but it notably resulted from a Clavicle injury so it should be taken with a grain of salt. He’s also been submitted three times, but all three of those came in his first eight pro fights from 2012 to 2013. His two decision losses occurred in 2012 and 2014 and his only loss in his last 19 fights was due to the collarbone injury.
Muradov has successfully defended all five of the takedowns attempted against him so far in the UFC, while going one for six on his own attempts. After winning a low-volume decision in his UFC debut, Muradov landed a highlight reel December 2019 R3 KO against Trevor Smith. For context, the 38-year-old Trevor Smith was on a two fight losing streak coming in, but hadn’t been finished since 2014.
Then forced to wait 13 months for his most recent match, Muradov had four straight fights canceled in 2020—twice when his opponents withdrew, once when he withdrew, and once for a canceled COVID event. He finally made his way back inside the Octagon against a tough wrestler in Andrew Sanchez in January 2021. Muradov led in significant strikes 79-48 and in total strikes 82-50, while keeping the fight standing for the duration. Both fighters attempted two takedowns but neither landed any.
Muradov is an overall well rounded fighter with patient, powerful striking and great footwork. He has a background in kickboxing and we haven’t seen him have to grapple much so far in the UFC, but he will shoot for occasional takedowns.
Gerald Meerschaert
14th UFC Fight (7-6)Bouncing back from a pair of first round KO losses in 2020, Meerschaert predictably landed a first round submission against Bartosz Fabinski, who has now been submitted in the first round of three of his last four fights. Meerschaert’s last three fights have now combined for a total fight time of just three minutes and 31 seconds after his four fights prior to that all made it to the third round. He’s only won three of his last eight matches and hasn’t won consecutive fights dating back to 2017-2018.
Meerschaert fought three times in 2020, starting off the year with a third round submission win over Deron Winn before getting knocked out in 74 seconds by Ian Heinisch and then in just 17 seconds by Khamzat Chimaev.
He started off strong in the UFC, as he joined the organization in 2016 and won four of his first five fights. All five of those fights ended in the first two rounds, with Meerschaert landing a pair of first round submission wins in his first two fights, followed by a R2 KO loss against Thiago Santos. Meerschaert then landed a second round KO of his own, followed up by a R2 submission win. That’s when things began to go sideways.
Meerschaert was submitted by Jack Hermansson in the first round of a 2018 match, before losing a decision to Kevin Holland in his next fight. He rebounded with a R3 Guillotine Choke Submission win over Trevin Giles in 2019, but then lost a decision to Eryk Anders later that year. Meerschaert started 2020 off well with another third round submission win, but closed it out with the two quick KO losses against Ian Heinisch and Khamzat Chimaev.
Looking more closely at his last three fights, Meerschaert outlanded Deron Winn 86-53 in significant strikes, in what was his last victory. Even though Winn’s background is entirely based in wrestling, he didn’t want to go to the ground due to Meerschaert’s dangerous guard. So despite being at a 7” height and reach disadvantage, Winn looked to keep the fight on the feet. For context, Winn notably landed 12 takedowns in his next fight. Despite Winn’s desire to keep the fight on the feet, Meerschaert was able to get the fight to the ground through striking, as he landed a knockdown in R3. He then immediately grabbed Winn’s neck and submitted him midway through the third round, thus justifying Winn’s concern with going to the ground in the first place. In hindsight, that was just a terrible matchup for Winn as he’s way too short to compete in the stand-up game, but had his wrestling strength neutralized by the threat of a Meerschaert submission.
Meerschaert then took on Ian Heinisch and curiously looked to stand and trade early, opposed to looking for the takedown. That proved to be a flawed strategy as Heinisch dropped Meerschaert a minute into the first round and then finished him with ground and pound as Meerschaert shelled up. Chimaev saw that quick finish and told Heinisch to hold his beer while he topped it, dropping Meerschaert with a perfect right cross in just 17 seconds. Meerschaert then bounced back with his recent submission win.
No one has taken Meerschaert down more than once in the UFC, but eight of his 12 opponents have achieved that number. Interestingly, six of those eight went on to lose the fight, although that really just supports the concept that Meerschaert has looked most vulnerable to knockout threats opposed to wrestlers in the UFC. He has been submitted more times (8) than knocked out in his career (3), but only one of those submissions came in the UFC, while all three of the knockouts have. Meerschaert fought at 170 lb early in his pro career, but transitioned to 185 lb in 2013, where he’s stayed since.
Of Meerschaert’s 32 career wins, 24 have come by submission, while just six have ended in KOs, and even more amazing, only two have come by decision. His most recent decision win was all the way back in 2013. Looking at his 14 career losses, three have come by KO, eight have been by submission, and three have gone the distance. Insanely, only five of his 46 career fights have made it to the judges and only two of his 13 matches in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Muradov will have a 1” height advantage, but Meerschaert will have a 2” reach advantage.
Rarely do either of these two require the judges as 77% of Muradov’s career fights have ended early as have 89% of Meerschaert’s. They also look perfectly suited to capitalize on each other's weaknesses. Meerschaert’s chin has looked non-existent in his last two losses and Muradov has been submitted in three of his six career defeats, albeit not since 2013—but hey, we’re just trying to present some sliver of hope for ol’ Meerschaert. We fully expect Muradov to knock Meerschaert out here, and would be surprised if it took until the third round this time. Muradov faced three durable opponents in his first three UFC fights, but now gets a far more vulnerable target. Look for Muradov to knock him out in the first half of the fight.
It’s no secret what will most likely happen here and Muradov’s KO & ITD lines are super thin at -200 and -150. We don’t see any value there so we’re forced to dig deeper or avoid this fight. We settled on “Muradov Wins by R1 KO” at +200, “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +108 and “Fight Ends in Submission” at +600, but you can consider downgrading from R1 KO at +200 to R1 win at +175 or even “Fight Ends in R1” at +140 if you’re just betting one line. Overall it’s slim pickings here so we’re going light.
DFS Implications:
Muradov has so far been underachieving in DFS, especially on DraftKings, but his ridiculous finishing odds will surely drive up his ownership nevertheless. In his recent two R3 KO wins he put up DK/FD totals of 97/131 and 78/103. So clearly he’s been a better fit for the FanDuel scoring system so far. His decision win in his UFC debut totaled 53 DraftKings points and 58 points on FanDuel demonstrating an uncomfortably low floor in the rare occasion he doesn’t get a finish. We’re expecting an earlier knockout win for him come Saturday and we should finally see him demonstrate a more legitimate DraftKings ceiling. However, barring a win in the first 60 seconds, he should continue to score better on FanDuel where he should benefit from takedowns defended against a pure grappler in Meerschaert. Muradov lands a respectable 5.32 SS/min, while absorbing just 2.92 SS/min. He also owns a perfect 100% takedown defense as he’s stopped all five of the attempts against him so far in the UFC. This looks like an ideal matchup for him to go off and we love him on both sites. The odds imply he has a 83% chance to win, a 59% chance to get a finish and a 27% chance it comes in R1.
With all seven of his UFC victories coming early, as well as four of his six UFC losses, Meerschaert’s fights generally produce a high scorer in DFS for whoever wins. Here are Meerschaert’s DK/FD scores in his last five wins beginning with the most recent: 102/110 (R1 SUB), 95/128 (R3 SUB), 77/65 (R3 SUB), 126/134 (R2 SUB) & 102/121 (R2 SUB). So the only bust was in a close, ultra low-volume back and forth R3 submission, which seems somewhat flukey, but shows how he fails even with a finish. And here are the DK/FD score of Meerschaert’s OPPONENTS in his last last five losses beginning with the most recent: 127/114 (R1 KO+QWB), 109/124 (R1 KO), 56/61 (DEC), 73/67 (DEC) & 121/142 (R1 SUB). So the only times his opponents have failed is when fights end in decisions, which only 11% of his career fights have. Meerschaert is a dangerous grappler, but his non-existent chin makes it unlikely this fight goes the distance. We expect Muradov to knock him out early, but there’s always a chance Meerschaert can land his 25th career submission victory and serve as a slate-breaking contrarian underdog play. The odds imply Meerschaert has a 17% chance to win, an 11% chance to get a finish and a 4% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #5
Andre Petroski
1st UFC Fight (0-0)This matchup was announced Aug 19th and we originally only expected to see the TUF finalists on this card.
Petroski won his first match on TUF against a terrible Alaskan fighter in Aaron Phillips. We saw a super tentative start to the fight, but Petroski finally landed a takedown late in the first round and then finished with a mounted Guillotine submission without very much resistance from his opponent. Petroski was then submitted in the second round against Bryan Battle in the semifinals, but is still being given an opportunity in the UFC.
A former D1 college wrestler, Petroski made his pro debut in 2018 at 170 lb, but moved up to 185 lb for his next fight, where four of his six pro fights have been. While he trains out of Factory X in Colorado, his cardio looks somewhat suspect after the first rounds of fights. He won his first three pro fights in the first round with a pair of submissions following a KO victory in his debut, so he didn’t even see a second round until his fourth pro match. He then landed back-to-back second round knockouts in his fourth and fifth pro fights before suffering his first career loss in a October 2020 R2 knockout in the LFA against his most experienced opponent to date in 8-2 Aaron Jeffery. So he’s still never been past the second round. Petroski came in with his normal wrestling heavy approach against Jeffery, and while he was able to take him down multiple times, he struggled to do anything with the takedowns or even hold him down for long. Jeffery then dropped Petroski with a knee in the second round and the fight was soon stopped.
Prior to that LFA match, Petroski had been fighting for a smaller promotion out of Philadelphia going against inexperienced opponents who entered with records of 1-2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 7-11, and 4-1. Petroski relies heavily on his wrestling to win fights, but does have okay power in his hands. He generally uses his striking mostly just to setup takedowns.
It’s a little surprising to see a guy coming off a loss on TUF get this much hype coming into his debut, but it appears to have as much or more to do with how terrible his opponent is.
Micheal Gillmore
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Curiously getting a crack in the UFC after losing his only fight on TUF in incredibly unimpressive fashion, Gillmore appears to be cashing in his favor with Dana White after quitting his job to serve as a short notice replacement on the show. Gillmore looked absolutely terrible in his quick cameo on TUF, as he immediately had his back taken by Gilbert Urbina and was then controlled for almost three minutes leading up to an easy R1 submission by Rear-Naked Choke.
Prior to going on TUF, Gillmore last fought at 175 lb in January 2020 and won a unanimous decision through leg kicks against the 1-1 Perry Stargel. The fight consisted almost entirely of Gillmore landing mild leg strikes and nothing else really happened in the 15 minute match. Gillmore has never faced any experienced competition and his opponents have entered with records of 0-0, 2-0 (L), 0-1, 0-0 (L), 3-2, 2-0 (L), 2-3, 22-1 and 1-1.
Gillmore has fought anywhere from 165 to 180 lb in the past, but appears to be a Welterweight attempting to fight his first (and likely his last) UFC match up at Middleweight. He had a fight booked for October 2020, but it was canceled due to COVID, so it’s now been 19 months since he had an official professional fight.
Only two of his career fights have lasted longer than seven minutes—his first and his last, which both ended in decisions. Not even counting the recent submission loss on TUF, all three of Gillmore’s official pro losses have come by submission, with two in the first round and one in round two. Of his five pro wins, he has three KOs and a pair of decision victories, but he really doesn’t have much power and all of those finishes came against very inexperienced opponents. He likes to throw lots of leg kicks, but he doesn’t really get that much behind them, so he needs to really land a ton to do much damage.
Fight Prediction:
Petroski will have a 1” height advantage, but Gillmore will have a 1” reach advantage.
So it appears the reason this fight is happening is because Dana White likes Gillmore for quitting his job to serve as a standby late replacement and stepping into TUF on short notice—and they also must see some potential for Petroski. It still seems odd that they would give two losers on the show the same opportunity as the four finalists, but it is what it is. We can confidently say that Gillmore is not a UFC level talent and the only way he wins this fight is if Andre Petroski proves to be an absolute fraud as well and gasses out early in the fight. However, it would be surprising to see Gillmore even last long enough for that to happen based on how terrible his submission defense has been, so while we’re not overly impressed by Petroski either, he should be able to get Gillmore down and submit him without too much trouble.
We wish Petroski’s submission line was wider, but it’s still probably the best bet at +125. You can also consider his R1 submission line at +240 or “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +750.
DFS Implications:
Petroski’s wrestling heavy style lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system if this fight somehow goes the distance, but that’s unlikely to happen and a finish should score well on both sites. The UFC really teed him up with a dream matchup here, as Gillmore has been submitted in all three of his official pro losses, not even counting the recent submission loss on TUF. Three of those submissions occurred in R1 with the other ending early in R2. Everyone and their mom is expecting Petroski to land another early submission here, and that’s clearly the most likely outcome as Gillmore is absolutely terrible, but that collective prediction will drive Petroski’s ownership way up. We’re still not sold on Petroski being a UFC level talent, but it’s hard to really fade him in this spot. Realistically, his next fight will likely be the time to sell high, assuming this first one goes as everyone is expecting. The odds imply Petroski has an 80% chance to win, a 62% chance to get a finish and a 34% chance it comes in R1.
Gillmore has given us no reason to think he stands a chance in this fight, but if you want to hang your hat on anything it might as well be his three career KO wins that have all occurred early in fights. Just keep in mind those all came against highly questionable opponents and Gillmore has not looked even remotely dangerous on tape. You can also hope that Petroski simply gasses out and Gillmore essentially wins by default, which in reality is probably his one path to victory. You never know how different guys will react in their UFC debuts and seeing a loss by adrenaline dump for a massive favorite who is expected to win is certainly possible. Gillmore fits the bill as being a super gross contrarian tournament play with nothing to lose and Petroski is an overhyped young fighter who has yet to prove anything at this level. The odds imply Gillmore has a 20% chance to win, an 11% chance to get a finish and a 5% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #4
Kevin Lee
18th UFC Fight (11-6)Lee had been recently booked twice to face Sean Brady but Lee withdrew the first time due to a rib injury and Brady was forced to withdraw most recently. Instead of rescheduling a third time Daniel Rodriguez will once again step into a fight on short notice as he was announced as the replacement on August 11th.
Seventeen months removed from a third round submission loss to Charles Oliveira, Lee has lost three of his last four fights and four of his last six. All but one of those have taken place at Lightweight, but he’ll now be moving up to Welterweight. In his only other pro fight at 170 lb, Lee lost from a R4 Arm Triangle Choke against Rafael dos Anjos in May 2019. RDA has notably also fought at both 155 lb and 170 lb, and at just 5’8” he’s also undersized at 170 lb.
Since getting submitted by RDA in 2019, Lee dropped back down to 155 lb—or at least attempted to—for his most recent two matches. He bounced back from the submission loss with a 2019 R1 murder of Gregor Gillespie in a 2019. Lee knocked Gillespie out cold with a left head kick that instantly sent him to another dimension before he even hit the ground.
Following the win over Gillespie, Lee took on Charles Oliveira in what was Lee’s 6th five round fight in his last seven matches. In a close fight, Oliveira led in significant strikes 43-41, while Lee led in total strikes 61-51 and in takedowns 2-0 with six and a half minutes of control time before Oliveira was able to land a Guillotine Submission early in R3. Lee notably missed weight by two and a half pounds for that fight.
Lee is now 18-6 as a pro, with 15 of his 24 (62.5%) fights ending early. He has three wins by KO (R1 x2 & R5) and eight wins by submission (R1 x4, R2 x3 & R3) to go along with seven career decision wins. Four of his six losses have also come early, with one KO in the first round of a 2015 fight against Leonardo Santos and three submission losses (2020 R3 Guillotine Choke vs. Charles Oliveira, 2019 R4 Arm-Triangle Choke vs. RDA and 2017 R3 Triangle Choke vs. Tony Ferguson).
Lee joined the UFC in 2014 when he was just 21, so despite having 17 fights with the organization and coming off a year and half layoff, he’s still somehow just 28 years old. With a wrestling background, Lee does his best work on the ground whether it’s hunting for submissions or laying down heavy ground and pound. He averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes (3rd highest on the slate) and has taken down 10 of his last 11 opponents at least once. The one exception was Gregor Gillespie, who Lee knocked out in the first round instead. However, his takedowns are more based on quantity than quality as he has just a 43% takedown accuracy.
It will be important to monitor Lee closely at weigh-ins now that he’s moving up to Welterweight. Update: He looked good at the new weight class.
Daniel Rodriguez
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Coming off a R1 KO against another grappler in Preston Parsons, albeit one on the other end of the food chain from Lee, Rodriguez once again showed his solid 83% takedown defense as he stuffed all four of Parson’s attempts. In a high-volume scrap that lasted less than four minutes, Rodriguez led in significant strikes 45-23 landing a ridiculous 11.89 SS/min.
After starting his pro career 8-1 with eight early wins, Rodriguez initially tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in July 2019. However, he failed to get a contract after notching his first career decision victory and was forced to return to the regional scene. He landed a second round KO in December 2019 in his next fight and when the UFC needed a short notice replacement fighter to take on Tim Means in February 2020 they knew just who to call.
Stepping into his debut on less than three week’s notice, Rodriguez came out ready to brawl and dropped Means just before the first round ended. That left Means taking the long way back to his stool as he drunkenly zig-zagged trying not to topple back over. Means was able to recover in between rounds to some extent, but Rodriguez continued to pour it on. He had Means badly hurt again later in the second round, which forced Means to shoot for a desperation takedown. Rodriguez quickly wrapped up his neck and finished the fight with a Standing Guillotine Choke.
Rodriguez was then scheduled to fight Kevin Holland on May 30th 2020, however, Holland withdrew shortly before the fight, and Gabe Green stepped into his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice. That fight turned into an absolute brawl with Rodriguez finishing well ahead in striking 175-127 on his way to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.
Next, Rodriguez was booked against Takashi Sato on August 22nd. However, Sato wasn’t medically cleared following weigh-ins the day before the event and was forced to withdraw. Dwight Grant also needed a new opponent after both Jared Gooden and then super late replacement Calen Born both withdrew. With Grant and Rodriguez both opponent-less, it made sense to pair the Welterweights up against one another. Grant couldn’t have been thrilled going from an easy opponent in newcomer Gooden, to an easier opponent in smaller newcomer Born, only to end up against Rodriguez on one day’s notice, but he accepted nevertheless.
Grant came dangerously close to finishing Rodriguez early in R1 with a knockdown followed by some extensive ground and pound in the first minute. It looked like the ref was an eye blink away from stopping the fight, but he let it go on. Rodriguez was able to recover and quickly turn the tables, dropping Grant a couple of times in the next 90 seconds. The ref was much quicker to stop the fight as Grant took a beating, but Grant was clearly compromised by Rodriguez’s punches. With the win, Rodriguez stretched his winning streak to nine and started 3-0 in the UFC.
Following three straight short notice victories, Rodriguez was then scheduled to face Bryan Barberena on November 11th, however Barberena withdrew for medical reasons. Rodriguez was unable to find a short notice replacement that time, so he had to wait on the sidelines for a new opportunity to present itself. However, it didn’t take long as Orion Cosce dropped out of a fight against Nicolas Dalby the following week and Rodriguez happily stepped in for his fourth straight short notice opponent. With a unique karate style stance, Dalby was the first fighter to force Rodriguez into something other than a brawl and somehow Dalby fooled the judges into awarding him a decision despite trailing 83-50 in significant strikes and 105-58 in total strikes while missing on all seven of his takedown attempts. That loss broke a nine fight winning streak for Rodriguez and was just the second time he’d lost a fight in his career—both by decision.
Next, in his 5th UFC fight Rodriguez booked an opponent with time for a camp and the fight actually happened. The April 2021 matchup came against Mike Perry and Rodriguez was given two months time to prepare. Rodriguez more than doubled the striking numbers of Perry as he outlanded him 129-61 in significant strikes and 145-65 in total strikes. Perry was able to land a pair of takedowns on four attempts, but Rodriguez won every round and cruised to a unanimous decision win.
Returning to his old ways, Rodriguez had then been scheduled to face Nurmagomedov in July 2021, but of course Nurmagomedov withdrew and Rodriguez got his 5th short notice opponent in six UFC fights as he squared off against Preston Parsons. Now he’ll extend that to six short notice opponents in seven UFC fights when he takes on Kevin Lee on two and half week’s notice. It’s truly unbelievable how Rodriguez essentially only participates in short notice fights. He must just be lurking in the shadows of the Apex waiting for guys to drop out of fights.
After 10 of his first 12 pro fights ended early, three of his last five have now gone the distance. Also notable, while three of his first four pro fights ended in the first round, 11 of his last 13 have made it to the second round with seven of those seeing round three. Something to keep in mind for prop bets, while Rodriguez’s most recent two early wins both occurred in R1, his three prior to that all came in round two.
Takedown defense will play a key factor in this matchup, and while Rodriguez has a legit 83% takedown defense on paper, it should be noted that it really hasn’t been tested by anyone as good as Kevin Lee. That number is also inflated by Dalby (29% career takedown accuracy) failing on seven takedown attempts.
Takedowns landed and attempted against Rodriguez (beginning with most recent):
Preston Parsons (0% Takedown Accuracy) 0 for 4
Mike Perry (40% Takedown Accuracy) 2 for 4
Nicolas Dalby (29% Takedown Accuracy) 0 for 7
Dwight Grant (100% Takedown Accuracy) 0 for 0
Gabe Green (100% Takedown Accuracy) 0 for 0
Tim Means (39% Takedown Accuracy) 1 for 3
So only four opponents have attempted a takedown on Rodriguez and they combined to go 3 for 18 (17%). More notably, those four opponents have an average takedown accuracy of just 27%. So we really don’t know what Rodriguez’s takedown defense will look like against a high level wrestler, however, the fact that Mike Perry was able to ground him twice on four attempts in his last match has us skeptical that Rodriguez will be able to keep this fight standing for its entirety.
Fight Prediction:
Rodriguez will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This will easily be Rodriguez’s toughest test to date as he goes from fighting a short notice replacement UFC newcomer to the #11 ranked Lightweight, who’s now moving up to Welterweight. Normally we might be higher on Lee here, but moving up a weight class and coming off a 17 month layoff are major reasons for concern with him. Lee’s game is also predicated around getting fights to the ground and Rodriguez’s 83% takedown defense, while still somewhat unproven, does present the potential to make that difficult. Rodriguez also has a solid Guillotine Choke that he used to finish Tim Means, and it would make sense for him to use that to attack Lee’s neck to defend takedowns, especially later in the fight or if he can first daze him on the feet. Lee has notably been submitted in three of his last four losses. Lee attempts seven takedowns per 15 minutes, so there should be plenty of opportunity for Guillotine attempts barring an early finish. Rodriguez’s 6’1” frame could also give Lee trouble in getting the fight to the ground as Rodriguez will be noticeably larger than Lee, who’s attempting to move up from 155 lb to 170 lb for just the second time in his career—and the first was against 5’8” RDA who also often fights down at 155 lb and notably defeated Lee. This should be a fun fight to watch, and we expect it to simply come down to whether or notL ee can get it to the ground. If he can, he should be able to beat Rodriguez up with ground and pound and potentially hunt for a submission. However, if Rodriguez’s 83% takedown defense holds up we like him to win a striking battle and think he has a sneaky chance to land a submission of his own.
There are a ton of great longshots here. Our favorite is “Rodriguez Wins by Submission” at +1400. You can also consider his R2 and R3 submission lines at +3800 and +5000 or his R2 and R3 win lines at +900 and +1600. We also like Rodriguez’s money line at +130, his ITD line at +280, “Fight Ends in Submission” at +320 and “Fight Ends in R2” at +420.
DFS Implications:
Lee has historically been a solid DFS contributor when he wins with DK/FD scores of 108/128 (R1 KO), 162/137 (R5 KO), 113/124 (R1 Sub), 87/98 (R2 SUB), 130/145 (R2 Sub) and 112/120 (R1 KO). So over those six wins he has averaged 119 DraftKings points and 125 points on FanDuel with a DK range of 87-162 and a FD range of 98-145. Note the 162/137 point explosion came in a R5 TKO. But even if we remove that and just look at his fights that have lasted three rounds or less, he’s averaged 110/123 DK/FD points with ranges of 87-130 and 98-145 respectively. It is important to note that all of those wins came early and if we look back at his last decision win it scored just 75/87 DK/FD points. With that said, he does have the ability to score decently in three round decisions, with previous decision scores of 95/114, 101/88 and 91/76, but he’s entirely reliant on dominant grappling performances to do so. So if the 83% takedown defense of Rodriguez holds up at least to some extent, then Lee will have a tougher time scoring well in a decision. We have legitimate concerns about how Lee will fare fighting up a weight class, but it’s entirely possible that after 17 months away he has put in the work to successfully make the move. So this makes for a high-variance spot where Lee could look undersized and undergunned against a larger opponent, or he could continue his wrestling dominance and put up another huge score. Rodriguez has notably never been finished in his career, but he’s also never fought as high a level talent as Lee. We expect Lee to score better on DraftKings if this fight goes the distance, but he has a huge ceiling on both sites with a finish. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Rodriguez has been a consistent DFS producer with 100 or more DraftKings points in four of his five UFC wins. Here are his DK/FD scores from his five wins beginning with the most recent: 108/139 (R1 KO), 85/103 (DEC), 126/145 (R1 KO), 106/131 (DEC), and 100/122 (R2 SUB). And for what it’s worth, his DWCS decision win would have scored 94/109 points. So the biggest takeaways are that Rodriguez almost always scores well when he wins with the one exception being an 85 point DraftKings score in his decision win over Mike Perry. Even then, he still scored 103 FanDuel points, where he has always performed better. So when Rodriguez wins, regardless of whether it’s in a decision or with a finish, he has always scored at least 103 FanDuel points and has four scores of 122 points or more. We expect that to continue here if he can pull off the upset as he should get the chance to defend a ton of takedowns. While his DraftKings floor/ceiling combination is a little lower, it’s still massive, especially considering his price. The biggest issue with Rodriguez is that he’s always really highly owned so there’s typically no leverage to be gained by playing him. It will be interesting to see where ownership shakes out on this fight, but we expect both guys to be heavily owned with Lee coming in under Rodriguez. So the leverage play is to go a little lighter on the fight and hope Lee wins a lower scoring decision, but this may be a spot where you simply have to eat the chalk to some extent, as we expect the winner to at least put up a decent score with the potential for a huge one. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 43% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #3
Ricky Turcios
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a pair of impressive decision wins on TUF, Turcios is the most experienced contestant on the show with about twice as many pro fights as the rest of the finalists. He also made an appearance on DWCS back in 2017, but lost a decision to Boston Salmon despite coming out ahead 110-61 in significant strikes and 130-66 in total strikes. Salmon clearly did more damage and dictated the pace despite the lopsided striking totals. Turcios also went 0 for 5 on his takedown attempts in that fight and generally struggles with his takedown accuracy.
In his first fight on TUF, Turcios defeated Dan Argueta in a three round decision. After a pair of high-volume first two rounds where we also saw some grappling mixed in, the fight was even so it went to a third round. Turcios reversed a takedown to start the final period and controlled Argueta’s back for essentially the entire round as he looked for the Rear-Naked Choke. That secured Turcios a spot in the semifinals where he faced a tough Liudvik Sholinian. Once again Turcios won an action-packed three round decision and showed improved striking from his DWCS fight back in 2017. Turcios easily eclipsed 100 significant strikes in the fight but failed to land a takedown on multiple attempts. If anything he seemed to get stronger as the fight went on as he really cranked up the pace in the third round which secured him a spot in the finals.
Looking back to before Turcios joined the cast of TUF, his last two fights both ended in the first two rounds, with a R2 Armbar submission win in February 2020 in his last official pro fight and a R1 KO loss against Mana Martinez in November 2018 for the Fury FC Bantamweight Belt. That KO loss was the only time Turcios has ever been finished in his eight year pro career, with his only other career loss coming against Salmon on DWCS in 2017. Turcios officially holds a 10-2 pro record (doesn’t include his TUF fights), with three wins by KO, one by submission and six decisions. So seven of his 12 (58.3%) pro fights have gone the distance, and that’s not even counting his two recent decisions on TUF. Ten of his 12 pro fights have made it out of the first round, with the two exceptions being a pair of R1 KOs (1-1).
Turcios fought his last official pro fight at 145 lb in February 2020, but the rest of his career has been at 135 lb where this next match will take place. Turcios is a black belt in Taekwondo and a BJJ brown belt.
Brady Hiestand
1st UFC Fight (0-0)In his first fight on TUF, Hiestand took on his 31-year-old CPA roommate Josh Rettinghouse and won a three-round split-decision. After they split the first two rounds the fight went to a third round and even then the judges returned mixed results. Rettinghouse appeared to do more damage but Hiestand landed half a dozen takedowns and controlled large portions of the fight on the mat.
In the semifinals Hiestand was teed up with another easy opponent in Vince Murdock and was easily able to get him to the ground and control him before finishing him with ground and pound with a little under two minutes minutes remaining in the round. Following the stoppage Murdock claimed he blew his knee out in the first minute, which obviously couldn’t have helped, but we’ve never been impressed by anything Murdock has done after he got embarrassed by Luis Saldana on DWCS back in November 2020. So overall Hiestand punched his ticket to the finals with two grappling heavy wins against some of the easiest competition on the show.
Still just 22 years old, Hiestand turned pro in 2018 when he was just 19 and won his first four fights, including three in the first round. He’s now 5-1 as a pro, with four of his wins coming in the first round with a pair of KOs and two submissions. His only career loss was a November 2019 R3 KO in his second most recent pro fight. The only time he’s been to the judges was a 2018 decision win in his second pro match. However, he has notably never defeated an opponent with a winning record and only one of those five opponents has ever even won a fight. His six opponents entered with records of 0-2, 0-0, 0-4, 0-6, 9-5 (L), and 1-12. So amazingly his five pro wins (not counting TUF) have come against opponents with a combined pro record of 1-24.
Hiestand is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in karate. His last fight was at 145 lb and his 2018 pro debut actually took place at 155 lb. He also had one other fight at 145 lb in 2019 that he won by KO. So in summary he’s gone 1-0 at 155 lb, 2-0 at 145 lb and 2-1 at 135 lb where this next fight will be. He’s a volunteer firefighter and apparently actually lives at the firestation, so obviously he dedicates a lot of time to that. He’s also a training partner with Michael Chiesa and it shows in his grappling heavy approach.
Fight Prediction:
Turcios will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 71” reach.
Turcios is the far more experienced fighter and also appears to have a more well rounded striking game than Hiestand. We expect Hiestand to try and simply overpower Turcios with his grappling, but Turcios is pretty slippery on the ground and will also throw up submissions off his back. Turcios should also have the speed advantage and we expect him to win this fight. It most likely ends in a decision, but he’s certainly capable of landing a late KO or a submission.
The safest bet here is Turcios’ moneyline at -170, but we also like his submission line at +1000 and his R3 win line at +1600 as long shots. You can also consider his +150 decision line but we wish it was slightly wider.
DFS Implications:
Turcios’s high-volume striking and willingness to grapple make him an intriguing DFS play on both sites, but this isn’t the best matchup for a striking explosion as Hiestand has looked far more interested in grappling. That could leave Turcios more reliant on landing a submission in the grappling exchanges to put up a big score, but he should be able to prop up his total with striking for as long as this remains on the feet. He should have a higher floor and ceiling on FanDuel where a high-volume late finish would be more valuable and we expect him to score from takedowns defended. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Hiestand’s grappling heavy approach is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system as he has the potential to rack up ground strikes and control time, however if he puts up a huge takedown total or lands a finish he’ll be useful on both sites. We can’t help but look at the combined 1-24 record of the five opponent’s he’s beaten and question whether or not this kid is actually legit or not but he still seems super raw. Still just 22 years old and working as a volunteer firefighter, we’re also not entirely convinced he’s committed to fighting the way Turcios is. Hiestand seems to rely on his strength to overpower opponents, so if this does turn into power mismatch in Hiestand’s favor he could put up huge wrestling numbers and break the slate. We’re still not expecting him to win but he certainly has wrestling based upside and the potential to land a ton of takedowns and with two guys each making their respective UFC debut this is another high-variance spot that could surprise us. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #2
Bryan Battle
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Battle won his first two fights on TUF to secure a spot in the finale. He had been scheduled to face Tresean Gore here, but Gore suffered a knee injury and was forced to withdraw. So now Gilbert Urbina gets a redemption shot after losing to Gore in the semifinals via R2 KO. Battle and Urbina were both on team Volkanovski during the show, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive they come out after spending a month living together as teammates.
In his first fight on the show, Battle defeated Kemran Lachinov in a two round decision (the first stage of fights on TUF are two rounds, unless it’s a tie and then they fight a third round). Battle more than doubled up Lachinov’s striking total and did a great job of stuffing about a dozen desperation takedown attempts. Then in the semifinals, Battle was able to submit Petroski in the second round to lock up a spot in the finale.
Prior to going on TUF, Battle’s last five pro fights all ended in the first two rounds, with him winning the last four. After winning a decision in his 2019 pro debut, Battle was submitted just 51 seconds into his second fight with an Armbar. He bounced back with a pair of submission wins of his own in the second and first rounds of his next two respective fights, before landing his only career KO win in the second round of a November 2020 match. Then in his most recent fight before going on TUF, he landed an early R2 submission in a high-paced brawl.
Like most of these guys coming off TUF, Battle hasn’t faced the most experienced pro competition as his opponents entered his fights with records of 1-0, 3-5 (L), 2-1, 0-2, 2-1, and 0-0. So he’s still very early in his career and we haven’t seen him be tested by any UFC level talent. He throws a ton of kicks and good knees out of the clinch, but he doesn’t have the most explosive hands.
Gilbert Urbina
1st UFC Fight (0-0)After easily submitting replacement fighter Michael Gillmore in the first round of his first fight on TUF, Urbina was knocked out in the second round of his most recent match by Tresean Gore, who was arguably the most talented fighter on the show. So considering he defeated the worst talent on the show and lost to the best, it’s hard to take too much away from those outcomes in terms of how Urbina stacks up against the other middle of the pack guys. It’s clear Urbina is most comfortable grappling and has a suspect striking defense as Gore was able to knock him down multiple times in a fight that lasted just over six minutes. Urbina loves hunting for Rear-Naked Choke Submissions and will often take opponents’ back on the feet given the opportunity.
Urbina’s last pro fight before going on TUF was back in November 2019 and it took place at 175 lb, opposed to 185 lb where this next one will occur. Urbina won an ultra low-volume grappling heavy decision with most of the fight spent on the mat. Prior to that, Urbina suffered his first career loss in a 2019 decision against Sean Brady in the LFA. Simply surviving to see the judges is probably worthy of some credit against a talent like Brady. That fight took place at 170 lb, as have five of Urbina’s seven pro fights. Other than his 2019 175 lb Catchweight fight, Urbina’s one trip above 170 lb was a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win at 185 lb. It had been almost two years since he had fought going into that one, so it makes some sense that he would be a little heavier. He had also finished his previous opponent with a Rear-Naked Choke, which occurred in the second round of a 2015 match. The only other finish of his career was a 2014 R1 KO win in his second pro fight. His other four official career bouts all ended in decisions.
Here’s Urbina’s pro record broken down by weight class in his seven pro fights (doesn’t include TUF):
170 lb (4-1): 2014 Dec W, 2014 R1 KO W, 2015 Dec W, 2015 R2 RNC W, 2018 Dec L
175 lb (1-0): 2019 Dec W
185 lb (1-0): 2017 R1 Sub W
Urbina’s recent record is less padded than a lot of these other TUF fighters, but two of his three career finishes have notably come against guys with a combined four fights of pro experience. Here are the records of his opponents coming in: 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 2-1, 5-0, 8-0 (L), and 7-3.
Fight Prediction:
Battle will allegedly have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, but if you watched faceoffs Friday they looked very close in height.
While Urbina has fought the majority of his career at 170 lb, Battle has exclusively been at 185 lb as a pro and actually had multiple amateur fights at 205 lb. He could have a substantial size advantage in this matchup and we expect Urbina to have trouble trying to get him to the mat. That will leave Urbina reliant on taking Battle’s back on the feet, which we’ve seen him do multiple times, but it’s still something that’s hard to rely on. Battle is a capable grappler himself, but it would make sense for him to keep this one standing and use his length to beat up Urbina with kicks from the outside. If the opportunity for a choke presents itself, Battle will certainly take it as three of his last four wins have come by submission. We like Battle to win and there’s a good chance it comes early, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if Urbina took him to a decision or even landed a submission of his own.
The safest bet here is Battle’s moneyline at -162. Our other favorite bet is “Fight Ends in Submission” at +240. We also like “Battle ITD” at +200 and “Battle R2 Win” at +750.
DFS Implications:
Battle’s high-volume striking, history of finishes and solid takedown defense make him an interesting DFS play on both sites. His last four official wins (not counting TUF) have all come in the first two rounds and he also submitted fellow TUF contestant and wrestler, Andre Petroski, in the second round. Battle only turned pro in 2019 so he’s still pretty inexperienced, but he has six official fights since then, while Urbina only has one over that timeframe. So Battle has been the much more active fighter of the two. He should also have a size advantage as Urbina has spent most of his career fighting at 170 lb, while Battle actually moved down to 185 lb after fighting at 205 lb as an amateur. Battle is listed as 4” taller with a 3” reach advantage. As long as Battle can keep Urbina off his back, we like him to win this fight, but Urbina will likely be looking to slow it down with grappling, which could make it tougher for Battle to put up a huge striking total. There are ways he can score well in a decision, like by defending a ton of takedowns on FanDuel or filling up the stat sheet with striking and grappling on DraftKings, but he likely needs a finish to really score well. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, an 30% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Urbina’s grappling heavy fighting style lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system, but he does have the potential to land a submission and score well on both sites. He’s more of a grappler than a wrestler, so we’re not expecting a huge takedown number as he’s fine just taking his opponent’s back on the fight without even going for a takedown. The only two ways we see Urbina winning this fight are either with a submission or a controlling Battle for the majority of the fight in grappling exchanges, which seems less likely based on the size differences between the two fighters. That likely leaves Urbina reliant on landing a submission to win and score well in DFS. Battle has been submitted once, but it came in his second pro fight via Armbar and Urbina is more of a Rear-Naked Choke threat. Urbina doesn’t land much volume on the feet generally, so it’s hard to see him winning a striking based decision. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #1
Edson Barboza
26th UFC Fight (16-9)Coming off an impressive R3 KO win against Shane Burgos, Barboza notched consecutive wins for the first time since 2016-2017 when he defeated Gilbert Melendez and Beneil Dariush. After knocking out Dariush in the second round of a 2017 fight, Barboza lost five of his next six matches as he went through the the Lightweight gauntlet of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Kevin Lee, Dan Hooker, Justin Gaethje and Paul Felder. He then dropped down to Featherweight (145 lb) and lost a split-decision to Dan Ige before finally righting the ship with a decision win over Makwan Amirkhani followed by his recent KO win over Burgos.
In his action-packed fight against Burgos, Barboza led in strikes 98-80, which all registered as significant. Neither fighter attempted a takedown and we saw a total of 3 seconds of control time. The fight ended in bizarre fashion with a super delayed knockdown after Barboza landed a heavy right hand. Burgos’ brain appeared to reset with Windows ‘98 type speed as he took the shot and then stood there for a few seconds before backpedaling into the cage and collapsing. It was a full five seconds from the time Barboza landed the punch to the time Burgos hit the mat in a sight we’ve never seen before. Barboza notably split his own shin open in that fight from all of his violent kicks in the first two rounds, so it is fair to wonder if his body can even hold up for five rounds based on how violently he throws his strikes.
His prior fight against the submission specialist Amirkhani played out as a game of feints in an ultra low-volume decision, where Barboza led in significant strikes 32-11 and total strikes 34-25. Barboza did land a pair of knockdowns in the staring contest, while Amirkhani went 3 for 6 on takedowns but couldn’t do anything with them (two came right at the end of the first two rounds).
Only one of Barboza’s last 15 fights has ended in the first round and 12 of those 15 have made it to the third round with nine ending in decisions. Five of his last eight wins have gone the distance and he only has three finishes in the last seven years over that 15 fight period. Those finishes were the 2021 R3 KO against Burgos, a 2018 R3 KO against Dan Hooker and a 2017 R2 KO vs. Beneil Dariush. He’s also only been finished three times himself during that stretch, which occurred in a 2019 R1 KO against Justin Gaethje, a 2018 R5 KO against Kevin Lee and a 2015 R2 Submission against Tony Ferguson. His other nine fights over that period all went the distance (5-4).
This will be the third five round fight of Barboza’s career, but he lost the first two with a 2018 R5 Doctor Stoppage TKO against Kevin Lee and a 2019 R1 KO against Justin Gaethje. Lee notably missed weight by a pound for that fight as he’s struggled to his 155 lb later in his career and is now giving it a shot at 170 lb. Considering that fight against Lee is the only time Barboza has ever been beyond the third round, we’ll dive a little deeper into it. Lee was able to take Barboza down a minute into the fight and punish him with heavy ground and pound for the next four minutes. He was able to return Barboza to the mat a minute into the second round and once again smashed him with ground and pound for another four minutes. Barboza finally got some offense going in round three as he clipped Lee with a Spinning Heel Kick that had Lee doing the chicken dance. Lee shot for a desperation takedown with the few faculties he was still clinging on to, but Barboza was able to stuff his initial attempt before Lee landed his second. Barboza was finally able to get back to his feet without the help of the bell, but Lee looked recovered, while Barboza looked gassed after the exhausting first two rounds. Thirty second into the fourth round Lee continued to implement his grappling game plan as he took Barboza back down and kept him there for another round as he continued to take years off his life with ground and pound. Midway through the 5th round, the ref stopped the action to have the doctor check on Barboza’s eye and the fight was stopped.
Looking at his entire career, 14 of Barboza’s 22 pro wins have come early, with 13 KOs and one submission, which came in 2009 in his third pro fight. Five of his nine career losses have also come early, with three KOs and two submissions. His submission losses came against Donald Cerrone via Rear-Naked Choke in the first round of a 2014 fight and Tony Ferguson in 2015 with a R2 Brabo Choke., but aren’t really relevant in this next matchup.
Barboza fought at 155 lb for his entire pro career until 2020 when he dropped down to 145 lb. Since the switch, he’s gone 2-1 with the recent KO win and a pair of decisions (1-1) after losing four of his last five fights at 155 lb. It seems like it’s always a tough cut for Barboza to get down to 145 lb, so he’s always a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. Update: This actually looked like the best cut yet for him.
Giga Chikadze
7th UFC Fight (6-0)In his recent fight against Cub Swanson Chikadze finally landed this liver kicks that he’s been jerking off to for the last two years—just keep in mind it came against a 37-year-old who’s lost five of his last seven fights. The fight lasted just 63 seconds and we only saw 16 total significant strikes landed with Chikadze leading 12-4.
Coming off his first early win in the UFC, Chikadze was teed up UFC newcomer Jamey Simmons in his last fight for no explainable reason other than to finally get him a finish in the UFC. The line opened at -450 and was quickly bet up to -750 with an insane +125 R1 win line for Chikadze, who hadn’t finished anybody in four UFC matches. That wasn’t a fight, it was an execution. To his credit, Chikadze didn’t just piss himself and carried out his role of executioner as he dropped the axe on Simmons late in the first round with a head kick followed up by ground and pound to get the stoppage. It was such a pointless matchup, it’s hard to take much away from the finish. We all knew he could finish terrible opponents—he made a whole career out of it before joining the UFC.
All four of his previous UFC wins ended in decisions with a pair of split-decision wins in his first two UFC fights followed by two unanimous decision wins. That came after the first seven victories of his career all ended in the first round. However, here are the records of his opponents going into those seven pre-UFC finishes: 0-0, 0-10, 0-13, 0-1, 0-0, 2-30, 0-1. So calling that a padded record is unfair to other fighters with padded records. Chikadze might as well have been hunting his opponents from outside the cage with a crossbow for how competitive those fights appear. Five of those seven opponents never fought again and the other two combined to go 0-4 after. To his credit, Chikadze is undefeated in the UFC, and is the only fighter to ever defeat Omar Morales, but his one-dimensional kickboxing approach appears to lack the diversity to win a belt. He does have one submission win on his record, which came in a 2018 Armbar just 12 seconds into the first round, but he’s not truly any sort of submission threat.
After losing a decision in his 2015 pro debut, Chikadze’s only loss in his last 14 fights came against Austin Springer in a 2018 DWCS match, where Springer choked Chikadze out in the third round. Springer made his UFC debut last August and got murdered by Alex Caceres in the first round. That was notably Caceres’ only 1st round win in his last 26 fights.
At 6’0” tall with a 74” reach, Chikadze has good size and length for the 145 lb division, but he lands a below average number of significant strikes and has just two takedowns in six UFC fights. He also doesn’t get hit much himself as he averages 3.55 SSL/min and 2.67 SSA/min. He’s never landed more than 65 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 54.
Fight Prediction:
Chikadze will have a 1” height advantage but Barboza will have a 1” reach advantage.
This fight has shades of Jean-Claude Van Damme kicking down a tree if the tree kicked back. This kickboxing masterclass is a matchmaker’s wet dream, but they may want to go ahead and get the wheelchairs ready as these two prepare to sacrifice their shins to the MMA gods. We have to wonder about the cardio of both of them later in fights as Chikadze has never been to a fourth round and the only time Barboza has was against Kevin Lee where he was already exhausted by the third round from the dominant grappling and ground and pound of Lee in the first two rounds. So in reality we’ve never seen either of these two in the championship rounds in a pure striking battle. While Chikadze has never faced a top level opponent in the UFC, Barboza has essentially seen them all. He also has more than twice as many pro fights as Chikadze, so from an experience level Barboza has a huge advantage. Working in Chikadze’s favor, he’s a few years younger and has far less wear and tear on his body. We still think Chikadze is being overvalued as he’s had one of the softer schedules out there up until this point in his career, but this will be his opportunity to prove us wrong. If he can beat Barboza at his own game, we promise to at least give him some credit going into his next fight. But until that happens, give us Barboza in this one either with a mid to late round KO or in a decision.
Our favorite bets here are Barboza’s moneyline at -115, his KO line at +310 and “Barboza Wins in R4, R5 or by Decision” at +180. We also like his R3, R4 and R5 KO lines at +1900, +2400 and +2900 as long shots.
DFS Implications:
With low striking totals, only one takedown in his last night fights, and zero first round finishes in his last 15 matches, Barboza rarely scores well in DFS. His wins generally come later in fights as he wears down his opponents, which does not typically translate well to DFS scoring. On average he lands 4.16 SS/min while absorbing 4.15, which sets a pace for 104 strikes landed over the course of 25 minutes. While that’s not nothing, it’s not enough to score well on its own in a decision. Barboza has notably landed four knockdowns in his last three fights, although Chikadze has yet to be knocked down in the UFC, albeit against far worse competition. Whether or not this fight produces a decent scorer will come down to whether these two engage in a more calculated kickboxing match or a high-paced brawl. We expect some of each, with a potential feeling out process early on followed by flurries of strikes once they each get their timing down, however it’s tough to predict.
We definitely expect it to be slower paced than Barboza’s last match against the ultra high paced Shane Burgos, but still far more uptempo than his previous staring contest against Makwan Amirkhani. So it’s probably fair to predict the winner will land north of 100 but fewer than 140 significant strikes, which would set the floor for their DraftKings scoring range at 70-86 and 80-104 on FanDuel in a decision off of striking alone. Any additional stats would be added to that but we’re not expecting many other than the potential for a knockdown. Maybe one of them shoots for a desperation takedown if things get hairy. Even in his finishes Barboza has often failed to put up huge DraftKings scores with DK/FD totals of 94/121 (R3 KO), 109/141 (R3 KO), 92/111 (R2 KO). You’ll notice he’s fared much better on Fanuel, where the scoring system is a better fit for his fighting style. Even with the potential to score under 100 DraftKings points in either a decision or with a mid round finish, Barboza’s mid-tier price on DraftKings still keeps him in the discussion as a value play and he still theoretically has a high ceiling if everything goes perfectly for him. The odds imply he has a 51% chance to win, but just a 28% chance to get a finish with a 9% chance it comes in R1.
Chikadze is a pure kickboxer who, similarly to Barboza, specializes in throwing violent kicks and his one dimensional fighting style generally makes it hard for him to score well in DFS barring an early KO. Obviously having two extra rounds to work with raises his floor, but the tougher question to answer is what it does to his ceiling. In his four UFC decision wins, he’s scored 68, 70, 51 and 68 DraftKings points. If we extend those scores over the course of 25 minutes they would come out to 93, 97, 65 and 93 points. So still not much of a ceiling, but consistently in the value play range outside of his one really low scoring win over Jamall Emmers. If we break down the striking pace Chikadze has set individually among his six UFC fights in terms of significant strikes landed per minute beginning with the most recent, it’s 3.93, 2.53, 4.07, 4.33, 2.08 and 11.43 (63 second KO). So outside of his recent 63 second KO, he’s never set a striking pace of more than 4.33 SSL/min. If we extend that 4.33 SSL/min pace over the course of 25 minutes it would be good for just 108 significant strikes.
We’re not expecting many if any takedowns in this fight so if it plays out entirely on the feet as we’re predicting, 108 significant strikes would only score 73 DraftKings points and 85 points on FanDuel in a decision win. Now that doesn’t account for any additional stats (knockdowns, takedowns, control time, etc.), but in a pure kickboxing fight like this control time could be negligible as Chikadze only averages 3.6% control time and Barboza has averaged just 7.76% in his last seven fights. In terms of takedowns, Chikadze has gone 2 for 5 in his UFC career and Barboza has a 78% takedown defense so at best you’re probably hoping for one. Barboza has also only been knocked down once in his last 16 fights, which came against Justin Gaethje, so that will be another category that will be tough for Chikadze to score from.
But we’ll give Chikadze the benefit of the doubt and say he gets 6% control time, a knockdown, a takedown and matches his personal best striking pace in any fight that’s lasted longer than 63 seconds, he would still score just 91 DraftKings points and 103 points on FanDuel in a decision win. And asking him to keep up his personal best career pace in his first career five round fight already seems like it’s asking a lot. Anyways, we’re not trying to prove that he can’t score well in a decision win, we’re just showing that there are lots of ways for him to fail. So there’s a good chance Chikadze will need a finish here to put up a big score. WIth all that said, at his cheaper price tag he still has the potential to serve a value play in a high-volume decision depending on what the other cheap plays do. He also looks like a better FanDuel play compared to DraftKings in terms of his ceiling, not factoring in pricing. The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.
Overall, the low-to-average volume, one-dimensional striking of both of these fighters lowers each of their ceilings, but the potential to go five rounds raises each of their floors—just not to the point that either is guaranteed to really score well in a win. They’re both better suited to the FanDuel scoring system so they each have higher floor/ceiling combinations over there, but they’re priced more affordably on DraftKings so they have the ability to serve as value plays even with decent scores there. That keeps them in play on both platforms, just realize there are still ways for this to bust if it turns into a slower paced match with both guys respecting the other’s power.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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Makhmud Muradov OVER 109.5 pts
Muradov UNDER 6.5 mins
Turman UNDER 73.5 pts
Barboza OVER 98.5 pts
