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Fighter Notes:
Fight #15
Jafel Filho
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Filho is coming off a third round submission loss in his UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev, but nearly pulled off the massive upset with a locked in kneebar that very few people on the planet wouldn’t have tapped to. Filho got taken down four times in the fight and controlled for over eight minutes, while never attempting a takedown of his own and getting outstruck just 16-9 in significant strikes. Prior to that loss, Filho secured his spot in the UFC with a third round TKO win on DWCS in another low-volume fight, where Filho trailed 29-34 in significant strikes. That was Filho’s fifth straight early win and he hasn’t required the judges since 2014 with his last 10 fights all ending early. His third most recent finish came against Vinicius Salvador, who’s now in the UFC, and he’s fought some decent competition.
Now 14-3 as a pro, Filho has five wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and one decision victory. That lone decision win came in his second pro fight, and his last 12 wins have all come early. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice, with both of those early losses ending in the third round. He also has one decision loss, which was back in 2014. Filho had two fights at 135 lb before going on DWCS, and has had a couple of 130 lb Catchweight matches, but the rest of his career has been spent at 125 lb.
Overall, Filho has far more finishes than your typical Flyweight and looks really strong for the division. He’s typically looking to choke opponents out, but does have three TKO wins in his last five fights and has pretty heavy hands. He’s pretty well-rounded, but doesn’t land a ton of striking volume. Between his recent UFC debut and his DWCS match, he landed two of his seven takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents on 4 of their 9 attempts (55.6% defense). He’s a former Shooto champion and trains at Nova Uniao, so he’s got a good team around him and despite losing his recent debut he looked dangerous on the mat against a high-level wrestler.
Daniel Barez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on a four fight winning streak, Barez originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2021, but lost a close split decision to Carlos Hernandez and then returned to the Mexican regional scene, where he proceeded to land four straight first round finishes against some very dubious competition who entered with records of 10-9-1, 7-9, 6-9, and 14-12. Barez’s last 10 fights have all either ended in the first round (6-0) or gone the distance (3-1), with his last three decisions all being split.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Barez has seven wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. His last six and 9 of his 13 finishes came in round one, while he also had three second round finishes and one in round three earlier in his career. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice, and has three decision losses. One of his two submission losses was against Manel Kape back in 2014. Barez has won 10 of his last 11 fights, with the split decision on DWCS being his only loss since 2016.
Overall, Barez is an aggressive fighter who likes to get in the face of his opponents and look for finishes both on the feet and the mat. He’s got quick hands and does a good job sticking opponents with his stiff jab and mixing in body shots. While he finished his last few opponents so quickly there was never a need to attempt any takedowns, he landed 5 of his 16 attempts against Carlos Hernandez on DWCS (31.3% accuracy), while stuffing all eight of Hernandez’s attempts. Barez is from Spain but trains at Entram Gym in Mexico and has a good team around him. His background is in kickboxing but he’s a decent grappler as well. Barez is already 34 years old, so he’s getting a late start in the UFC, especially at Flyweight, so he has no time to waste in making a name for himself in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Filho will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also four years younger than the 34-year-old Barez.
What a way to kick off the night, as these two aggressive Flyweights will come in looking to finish one another. Filho is a little bigger and has fought the tougher strength of schedule, but Barez has looked pretty crisp with his striking and has shown pretty solid wrestling. However, Filho is the more dangerous grappler and is the more likely of the two to lock up a submission. Both guys have knockout power and can finish opponents in a variety of ways, and while neither of them have ever been knocked out, they’ve both been submitted twice. They appear pretty evenly matched and we could see this one going either way if it ends early, but if it goes the distance we like Barez to get his hand raised, as Filho’s style of fighting is better suited to landing finishes than winning decisions. With that said, we don’t expect it to make it to the judges and we’ll give the slight edge to Filho when it comes to pure finishing ability.
Our favorite bet here is “FDGTD” at -136.
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DFS Implications:
Filho’s last 10 fights all ended early, with him winning eight of those, although his last two matches both made it to the third round and didn’t involve a ton of striking volume. He landed a third round TKO on DWCS, but would have only scored 82 DraftKings points and 96 points on FanDuel in the finish. He then got submitted in the third round of his recent UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev, but nearly finished the fight with a kneebar just moments before. His combination of dangerous striking and grappling give him lots of ways to find finishes, but he doesn't land a ton of striking volume, so he may need those finishes to come in the first two rounds to really score well. The odds imply Filho has a 52% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Barez’s aggressive fighting style should make for pace up matchups that tend to score well in DFS, and 13 of his 16 career wins have come early. However, he has been facing a lot of low-level competition, which could be making him look better than he actually is. Nevertheless, he has crisp striking and pretty decent wrestling and he attempted a ridiculous 16 takedowns in his DWCS fight, before going on to finish his next four opponents in the first round. So the scoring upside is certainly there, he just needs to show that he can win fights against UFC caliber opponents. This will be a good test for him and we’re interested to see how he fares in this step up in competition. The odds imply Barez has a 48% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #14
Bruna Brasil
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Making a quick return for her sophomore showing, Brasil got knocked out in her UFC debut by Denise Gomes just over three months ago. Maybe Octagon jitters played a factor but Brasil didn’t really look comfortable in there with Gomes and never got anything going, as Gomes took her down three times and outlanded her 54-15 in significant strikes before finding a ground and pound finish midway through the second round. Prior to that loss, Brasil punched her ticket to the UFC with a R2 head kick walk off KO on DWCS and had won seven straight fights after starting her pro career just 1-2-1. While Brasil more or less controlled that DWCS match and eventually landed a knockout, she did get taken down three times in the fight, and her last three opponents have all taken her down three times.
Now 8-3-1 as a pro, Brasil has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. Both of her submission wins came by guillotine in the later rounds. She’s been knocked out in all three of her losses, with the first of those ending in the first round of her 2014 pro debut against UFC fighter Ariane Carnelossi. She then got knocked out in the second round of her fourth pro fight and then again in the second round of her recent UFC debut. Seven of Brasil’s last nine fights have ended early, while she’s won the last three decisions she’s been to, after her first career decision ended in a draw. Despite 67% of her pro fights ending early, 10 of her last 11 fights have seen the second round.
Overall, Brasil is a former Brazilian kickboxing champion and relies heavily on her kicks in MMA. She does a good job of mixing up her target and will attack opponents with leg kicks, head kicks, and kicks up the middle. At 5’6” she’s got good size for the 115 lb division, which when combined with her kick-heavy approach can make it tough for less aggressive opponents to find their range against her, often resulting in lower volume fights as she’s a pretty patient striker herself. She’s not entirely helpless when it comes to grappling and will occasionally mix in takedown attempts, but she definitely earns her keep on the feet. She will look for guillotines and armbars or leg locks off her back, but she’s not especially dangerous off her back. Between her DWCS match and her UFC debut, Brasil landed two of her three takedown attempts (66.7% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 6 of their 11 attempts (45.5% defense).
Shauna Bannon
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut just 15 months after her pro debut, Bannon is undefeated as a pro but hasn’t really been tested. After landing a pair of ground and pound TKOs in her first two pro fights, Bannon’s last three wins have all ended in decisions.
Now 5-0 as a pro, Bannon has two TKO wins and three decision victories. Both of her TKO wins came in under eight minutes. She hasn’t faced much in the way of competition and her five opponents entered her fights with records of 1-1, 3-0, 3-0-1, 1-2, and 6-4. Bannon fought as high as 145 lb as an amateur, but worked her way down to 125 lb by the end of her amateur career and then cut to 115 lb when she turned pro. She did have one pro fight back up at 125 lb, but her other four matches were all at 125 lb.
Overall, Bannon has a kickboxing background and is a black belt in Taekwondo. Her dad owns a kickboxing gym and both her and her sister have spent their entire lives kickboxing. She has numerous kickboxing accolades, but is still pretty green when it comes to MMA. With that said, she has shown some grappling abilities and likes to get opponents down and beat them up on the mat, while looking for occasional submissions. She trains with Molly McCann, who will be on this card with her, which could help her comfort levels as she steps into the UFC Octagon for the first time. It seems like the UFC is rushing to bring her on and she still needs to clean up her striking defense, but it will be interesting to see how Bannon looks as she faces a major step up in competition.
Fight Prediction:
Brasil will have a 1” height advantage, but Bannon will have a 4” reach advantage.
Brasil does well in clean fights where she can operate at space and utilize her kicking game, but hasn’t handled pressure, aggression, or wrestling well. While Bannon is still very green in MMA, she’ll bring all three of those things to this fight, and should be looking to force the action and make Brasil uncomfortable. While that could result in Bannon walking onto a head kick, once Bannon closes the range Brasil’s best weapon will be negated. Brasil looks like the more technical striker at range, so it would make no sense for Bannon to play that game with her, despite both of them having celebrated kickboxing backgrounds. Therefore, we expect Bannon to try and make the fight ugly, push Brasil up against the cage, trip her to the mat, and look to land ground and pound. We saw Brasil wilt under the pressure of Denise Gomes in her last fight, and if Brasil doesn’t show more resolve here than Bannon very well could finish her with ground and pound as well. While we haven’t seen Bannon do a ton of real damage on the mat, she is active enough with her striking to force the referee to stop the fight if Brasil just covers up. Just keep in mind, Bannon has fought to three straight decisions and it won’t be at all surprising if this one ends with the judges as well. You never know how Bannon will handle the pressure of making her UFC debut in front of a live crowd and so close to her home of Ireland, or how much better Brasil will look in her second Octagon appearance. But if Bannon can keep her foot on the pedal and not get too wide eyed under the bright lights then we like her chances of pulling off the upset by outworking Brasil in the clinch and grappling exchanges, and either finding a TKO finish on the mat or grinding out a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Bannon KO” at +950.
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DFS Implications:
Brasil is a patient kickboxer who only occasionally mixes in takedowns. That will typically leave her reliant on landing finishes to score well and she rarely puts up huge striking totals. She throws a ton of kicks, trying to keep her opponents at range to utilize her size, which tends to slow fights down and make it hard for anyone to land many strikes. However, 8 of her 12 pro fights have ended early (5-3), with her last two both ending in second round knockouts (1-1). She looked bad in her recent UFC debut where she got finished in the second round by Denise Gomes and has been taken down three times in each of her last three fights. Now she’s facing a less experienced opponent who will be making her UFC debut, so perhaps Brasil can look like the more comfortable fighter here, but that remains to be seen. Her inability to handle pressure and defend takedowns is concerning and we’re treating her as a KO or bust option in a somewhat volatile spot. The odds imply she has a 57% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Bannon only turned pro in MMA 15 months ago but has been kickboxing her entire life, and has already added some grappling to her game. She grew up in Ireland and trains with Molly McCann, so she didn’t have to travel far for this fight and should have the crowd behind her. While Bannon’s lack of MMA experience is concerning, she’s an aggressive fighter who will look to engage in the clinch and take fights to the mat, and that style of fighting has given Brasil problems in the past. If Bannon can get this fight to the ground, she should be able to rack up minutes and potentially land enough ground strikes to force a TKO stoppage if we get the right ref. Even if the fight doesn’t get stopped, she could still score well on DraftKings in a decision if she’s able to rack up control time and ground strikes. However, if Bannon can’t get Brasil down, then this fight gets a lot dicier, as Brasil has been the more dangerous striker out in space. So this remains a risky spot, but we like Bannon’s upside at her cheap price tag, especially on DraftKings. The odds imply Bannon has a 43% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Chris Duncan
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a surprisingly grappling-heavy decision win in his recent UFC debut against Omar Morales, Duncan landed 5 of his 14 takedown attempts and finished with six and a half minutes of control time. That fight looked very different from Duncan’s two appearances on DWCS. In his first trip on DWCS, Duncan got knocked out early in round two by Viacheslav Borshchev in October 2021. He then went and won a decision on the England regional scene, before returning to DWCS in August 2022. Duncan nearly got finished for a second time on the show, but was narrowly able to survive and land a knockout of his own. Seven of Duncan’s last nine fights have ended by knockout in the first two rounds, but five of his last six fights have seen round two, and two of his last three went the distance.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Duncan has seven wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. The only loss of his career occurred in his R2 KO loss to Viacheslav Borshchev on DWCS. His lone submission win came via R2 guillotine in his 2018 pro debut, while his last seven finishes have all ended in knockouts. Four of those KOs came in round one, two ended in round two, and one came in round three. However, his last six all ended in the first two rounds. Duncan actually moved up to 170 lb for his fight in between his two DWCS appearances. He also has a couple of 160 lb Catchweight matches, but the rest of his career has been spent at 155 lb.
Overall, Duncan is a brawling striker who trains at American Top Team and has the luxury of working with guys like Grant Dawson and Dustin Poirier on a regular basis. He’ll have the home UK crowd behind him for his second straight fight after his debut was on the last London card. Duncan has really been working on rounding out his game and improving his wrestling and it showed in his recent debut, where he landed 5 of his 14 takedown attempts. Between his two DWCS appearances and his recent debut, he landed 7 of his 19 takedown attempts (36.8% accuracy), while no one tried to take him down. Duncan has looked very hittable and he’s been hurt at multiple points in those three fights. Now he’ll face a power puncher so it will be interesting to see if his durability holds up.
Yanal Ashmouz
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Ashmouz showcased his power in his recent UFC debut when he knocked out Sam Patterson in just 75 seconds. The fight ended before it ever really got started as Ashmouz basically connected on the first combination he threw and quickly finished Patterson with ground and pound after rocking him with a left hook as he took him down. Ashmouz turned pro in 2017 and fought three times that year, but then took nearly four years off before returning in 2021. He looked like a different fighter when he returned, which can partially be attributed to the fact that he dropped down from being a chunky Welterweight to a jacked Lightweight. While his first six pro fights all made it out of the first round, he’s only been to the judges once in his career, which came in a grappling-heavy decision in the PFL in his last fight before joining the UFC.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Ashmouz has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. He has one first round finish, three in round two, and two in round three. The first two finishes of his career both came by rear-naked choke, while the last four were all by KO/TKO. He still hasn’t fought much in the way of competition, so take all of his wins with a grain of salt. He started his career at 170 lb in 2017, but then took four years off and returned in 2021 at 155 lb.
Overall, the 28-year-old Israeli Ashmouz is a stocky striker who loads up on his punches, but isn't super technical. He’s a habitual fence grabber, but has never been punished for it so likely will continue to do it. He has heavy top pressure on the mat, but has looked prone to getting taken down and hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat off his back. He’s still very green at this stage in his career and will be learning on the job, but he continues to show improvements.
Fight Prediction:
Duncan will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This fight has the potential to go a couple of different ways, as we’ve seen both guys involved in wild brawls and slower paced wrestling matches. However, they’re both generally looking to land knockouts and we don’t see anyone running away from action here. Duncan has been incorporating more wrestling into his game lately, and will likely be looking to take Ashmouz down to neutralize his power. That has the potential to slow the pace of the match down some and we’ve seen Ashmouz struggle with his defensive wrestling at times in the past. However, Duncan has also looked very hittable and pretty chinny, although has shown the ability to fight through adversity after getting rocked. It’s possible Duncan can grind out another decision on the mat, but Ashmouz seems to have the quicker and more explosive hands and we like his chances of catching Duncan at some point in the fight and notching his second straight knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Ashmouz KO” at +310.
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DFS Implications:
Duncan has historically been an aggressive brawler who has only required the judges twice in 11 pro fights, but he’s been working on his wrestling with Grant Dawson at American Top Team and both of those two decisions came in his last three outings. He appears to be cleaning up a lot of the holes in his game and looking for more takedowns. However, he still looks pretty hittable and gets rocked in fights consistently. While he landed five takedowns in his recent decision win, he still only scored 90 DraftKings points in a slower paced match against a decision grinder in Omar Morales. The UFC is giving Duncan a more exciting match up here, so this fight should have more scoring potential on both sides than that last one. Duncan is capable of landing a knockout or grinding out another wrestling-heavy decision on the mat, but could also easily get knocked out himself. So he has a wide range of potential scoring outcomes, but also the ability to score decently on DraftKings even without a finish. The odds imply Duncan has a 59% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Ashmouz is coming off a first round knockout win in his UFC debut that was good for 101 DraftKings points and he remains undefeated with a 7-0 record that includes six finishes. He hasn’t faced much in the way of competition so he’s still a bit of a wildcard and doesn’t have a ton of experience. However, he clearly has a ton of power and throws with fight ending intentions, offering clear scoring upside. Now he’s facing an opponent who basically gets rocked every time he fights and Ashmouz will have a good shot at landing his second straight UFC knockout. However, we also expect Duncan to be looking to take Ashmouz down, which could limit Ashmouz’s opportunities on the feet and make it tougher for him to put up a big striking total. Duncan will also have the home UK crowd behind him, which could give him the advantage if this hits the scorecards. Ashmouz did win the only decision he’s ever been to and would have scored well if that had been a UFC fight, and at his cheap price tag he could still serve as a value in a decision win here. Ashmouz’s aggressiveness is encouraging for his scoring potential and whoever wins this match should score well. The odds imply Ashmouz has a 41% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Ketlen Vieira
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Coming off a split decision loss to Raquel Pennington, Vieira has gone the distance in five straight fights (3-2). She’s one judges scorecard away from being just 1-3 in her last four fights and continues to be involved in close decisions because she has no clue what she needs to do to separate herself in close fights. Four of her last eight decisions have been split (3-1). Prior to her recent three-round split-decision loss to Pennington, Vieira was fortunate to win a questionable five-round split decision over Holly Holm. The only time Vieira hasn’t gone the distance in her last seven fights was when she got knocked out by Irene Aldana in the first round of a 2019 match.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Vieira has two wins by TKO, four submissions, and seven decision victories. Both of her TKO wins came in her first five pro matches in 2014 and 2015, with one of those occurring in her pro debut. Three of her four submission wins also occurred in her first five pro fights and her only finish since 2015 was a 2017 submission win over Sara McMann, who was once choked out by a shrunken turtleneck because she forgot to put the dryer on low. The only time Vieira has been finished was in her 2019 R1 KO loss to Aldana, with her other two defeats both coming in close decisions.
Overall, Vieira is a BJJ and Judo black belt and has good size, power, and grappling. However, she has yet to really put it all together and appears to have a low fight IQ and no self awareness. She’s a former Brazilian national wrestling champion and Vieira loves to look for leg locks from defensive positions and arm-triangles from top position. She’s landed 14 takedowns on 35 attempts (40%) so far in the UFC, and has an elite 92% takedown defense. She’s only been taken down twice on 28 attempts in her 10 UFC fights and only once in her last seven matches. She only averages 3.24 SSL/min and 4.16 SSA/min and she’s been outlanded in significant strikes in her last eight and 9 of her 10 UFC fights.
Pannie Kianzad
10th UFC Fight (5-3)Fifteen months removed from a decision win over Lina Lansberg, Kianzad has gone the distance in eight straight fights after getting submitted in the second round of The Ultimate Fighter finale against Macy Chiasson in 2018. She’s won five of her last six fights, with the one exception being a 2021 loss to Raquel Pennington.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Kianzad has three wins by TKO and 13 decision victories. Her three finishes all occurred in her first six pro fights from 2012 to 2014 against two debuting opponents and another that was just 1-1. Kianzad also has one TKO loss on her record (R2 2015), to go along with two submission defeats, and three decision losses.
Overall, Kianzad is the definition of a decision grinder and her last 10 wins all went the distance. She lands a decent amount of striking volume (5.32 SSL/min), but has only landed 3 of her 10 takedown attempts (30% accuracy) in her eight UFC fights. On the other side of things, her opponents have only gotten her down on 5 of their 25 attempts (80% defense), but four of her last five opponents got her down at least once.
Fight Prediction:
Vieira will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Vieira has all the physical tools required to succeed, but just doesn’t quite know how to put it all together. Her low fight IQ will prevent her from ever reaching the top and results in her being a boring fighter to watch. She’s absolutely massive and built like a linebacker, but is far too tentative and can be content with sitting in the clinch. Nine of her 10 UFC opponents have outlanded her, and we expect Kianzad to as well, which will leave Vieira more reliant on finding grappling success to win. Kianzad has an 80% takedown defense, which will make that tough, and while we could see Vieira getting Kianzad down once or twice, we don’t see it being quite enough for her to win a decision and we like Kianzad to squeak one out here with the judges.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Vieira continues to disappoint and has never scored more than 89 DraftKings points in a fight. Prior to her recent loss, she won back-to-back close five-round decisions, but only scored 79 and 84 DraftKings points in those two victories. She has scored similarly in her four UFC three-round decision wins, where she averaged 80 DraftKings points. In her lone early win in the UFC, Vieira still only scored 89 points in a second round submission, which is the most points she’s ever scored in a fight. We’ve yet to see her ever score well, although her wrestling background does at least create the potential for her to score well if she can put it all together for three straight rounds, but we doubt she can. Now she’s facing the tough 80% takedown defense of Kianzad and this definitely does not look like the spot where Vieira suddenly hits a ceiling performance. The only reason to consider playing her is her low ownership, but that’s not enough to get us excited about her. It looks like she’ll need a well timed submission to be useful at her expensive price tag. The odds imply Vieira has a 57% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Kianzad has failed to top 81 DraftKings points in any of her five UFC wins, which all ended in decisions. She hasn’t finished an opponent since her sixth pro fight back in 2014, which ended in a third round TKO. Now she’s facing an opponent who’s built like a linebacker and will be looking to clinch/grapple and slow the fight down. That will make it tough for Kianzad to land the amount of striking volume it would take for her to really score well in a decision, leaving her more reliant on landing a rare finish. At her cheap price tag, we don’t mind playing her in low-risk contests, but we’re less excited about her outlook in tournaments. She’ll likely need to win and have all the other dogs fail to be useful. The odds imply Kianzad has a 43% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Makhmud Muradov
6th UFC Fight (3-2)After winning 14 straight fights from 2017 to 2021, Muradov has now dropped two in a row and is desperate for a win here. Both of those recent losses came against grapplers, with a 2021 R2 submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert and then a decision loss to Caio Borralho most recently. He’s only fought once in the last 23 months and has pulled out of three of his last four bookings. Prior to his recent two losses, Muradov won his first three UFC fights, with a 2019 decision win over Alessio Di Chirico, followed by a pair of third round knockouts against Trevor Smith and Andrew Sanchez. For context, Alessio Di Chirico lost five of his last six fights before recently retiring, Trevor Smith lost four of his last five and retired after the loss to Muradov, and Andrew Sanchez lost three of his last four UFC fights before being cut.
Now 25-8 as a pro, Muradov has 17 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and five decision victories. He has one TKO loss on his record, but it notably resulted from a Clavicle injury so it should be taken with a grain of salt. He’s also been submitted four times, but three of those came in his first eight pro fights from 2012 to 2013. His other three losses all went the distance. While 25 of Muradov’s 33 pro fights have ended early, his last six have all made it out of the first round, with four of his last five making it to the third round, and two of those going the distance.
Overall, Muradov is a dangerous striker with a background in kickboxing. He’s a patient, powerful striking, with good footwork, and will mix in occasional takedown attempts. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed 3 of his 8 takedown attempts (37.5% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 4 of their 17 attempts (76.5% accuracy). The only opponent Muradov didn’t try to take down was the dangerous grappler in Gerald Meerschaert.
Bryan Barberena
18th UFC Fight (9-8)Moving up to 185 lb for the first time in the UFC, Barberena was submitted in each of his last two fights, where he put up almost no resistance against high-level grapplers in Gunnar Nelson and Rafael dos Anjos. Prior to that, he landed his only finish since 2018 in a R2 TKO against Robbie Lawler, after winning a pair of really close decisions against Darian Weeks and Matt Brown.
Now 18-10 as a pro, Barberena has 11 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has five decision losses. While he’s won three of the last four decisions he’s been to, he’s consistently involved in close scorecards and two of his last three decisions have been split/majority rulings. Fourteen of his 17 UFC fights have seen the second round, with 11 making it to round three and eight going the distance. Barberena’s first three UFC knockouts came against opponents in their final professional fight, and the other was against a 40-year-old Robbie Lawler. Three of Barberena’s four early losses occurred in the later rounds, with one of those ending in round two and three in round three. Barberena did have two fights at 185 lb very early in his professional career, but has mostly competed at 170 lb. He did drop down to 155 lb for his first two UFC fights, but moved back up to 170 lb for his third UFC fight, where he’s stayed until now as he returns to 185 lb.
Overall, Barberena is a brawler who hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 14 fights. He’s put up big striking totals at times, but has been inconsistent for most of his career when it comes to stringing wins together. He averages a healthy 5.81 SSL/min and 4.83 SSA/min and generally makes for higher paced fights. However, Barberena has really struggled with being taken down, and in his 17 UFC fights he has been taken down 46 times on 101 opponent attempts (54.5% defense). The last fighter who tried to get Barberena down and didn’t at least one of their attempts was Warlley Alves all the way back in 2016, and five of Barberena’s last seven opponents have gotten him down four or more times.
Fight Prediction:
Muradov will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two are coming off two straight losses to grapplers and are likely champing at the bit to take part in a striking battle. It’s really surprising to see Barberena moving up to 185 lb here and if he thought it was tough to defend takedowns at 170 lb, just wait until he faces a grappler at 185 lb. While Muradov is a fellow striker, he will mix in takedown attempts and has a good shot at landing them against the 54% takedown defense of Barberena. Muradov will also have the power advantage and has a good shot at knocking Barberena out. Barberena should have the better cardio, although it remains to be seen how he’ll carry the extra weight here. Barberena also throws more volume, so if he can keep the fight standing and not get knocked out he’ll have a shot at outlanding his way to victory. One interesting thing to note, both of Barberena’s knockout losses have come in the third round, while both of Muradov’s UFC KO wins also ended in round three. However, if Barberena pushes the pace we could see Muradov slow down late in the match and none of his fights have been very high-volume. We still like Muradov’s chances of knocking Barberena out, but we won’t be shocked if Muradov struggles to keep up with Barberena’s pace for 15 minutes and ends up slowing down and losing a close, potentially split decision. Nevertheless, Muradov by knockout is the pick here.
Our favorite bet here is “Muradov R2 or R3 KO” at +420.
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DFS Implications:
Muradov is a dangerous striker who won 14 straight fights leading up to his recent two losses. While two of his three UFC wins ended in knockouts, both of those finishes came in the third round and he only scored 78 and 97 DraftKings points in those wins. However, now he gets a dream matchup against a more uptempo fighter in Barberena who should be pushing the pace and is also moving up from 170 to 185 lb. Barberena doesn’t have a ton of power so Muradov should be able to fight freely without having to worry about getting knocked out. However, Muradov will need to avoid gassing out and he’s never had to deal with this sort of striking pace before in the UFC. There’s definitely a world where he doesn't properly manage his cardio and gasses out late in the fight, but if he can avoid falling into that trap he’ll be set up to land a career high in striking and can also mix in a few takedowns, while having a good shot at finding a finish. At his high price tag, he’s still unlikely to end up in tournament winning lineups in a decision win, but this looks like a high floor, high ceiling matchup for him. The odds imply Muradov has a 74% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Barberena’s defensive grappling continues to be his biggest weakness, but now he’ll get to face a fellow striker so that may be less of an issue for him here. With that said, Muradov will mix in occasional takedown attempts and Barberena is moving up to 185 lb for the first time in the UFC, so opponents may have an even easier time getting him down. Barberena hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 14 fights and only has one finish since 2018, so he’s almost entirely reliant on putting up huge striking totals to score well and Muradov only averages 2.72 SSA/min. That’s not overly encouraging for Barberena’s scoring potential in this fight, but if he can coerce Muradov into a high-volume striking battle then it’s possible Barberena could outland his way to victory and squeak out a close decision win. At his cheap price tag he wouldn’t need to put up a huge score to potentially serve as a value play, and he’s especially interesting on FanDuel where striking is more valuable and he’s the cheapest fighter on the slate. Just keep in mind, he’s still a massive underdog and we’ve yet to see how he handles the power of opponents at 185 lb, so he’s still a risky play, in a tough matchup, with a narrow path to victory. The odds imply Barberena has a 26% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Jamal Pogues
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Pogues is coming off a decision win in his recent UFC debut against Josh Parisian, where he was able to land 5 of his 11 takedown attempts with nearly six minutes of control time. We didn’t see a ton of strikes landed in the match, with Parisian finishing ahead in significant strikes 37-33 and in total strikes 51-49. It looked like Parisian broke his toes in the first round, while Pogues broke his hand late in round two. That required Pogues to deal with a recovery process following the match, where he said he worked on his Muay Thai a bunch while just avoiding using that hand for a while. Leading up to the win in his debut, Pogues won a low-volume decision at Heavyweight on DWCS. It’s worth pointing out that Pogues’ opponent in that fight was not a real Heavyweight (6’0”, 221 lb), who had fought all the way down at 170 lb back in 2017. We saw less grappling from Pogues in that fight, as he failed to land his only two takedown attempts, and he also got outlanded on the feet in each of the first two rounds before finally turning it on in round three. Pogues got his lead leg chewed up throughout the match as he absorbed 46 leg strikes, and it didn’t look like his calves got the memo he was planning on moving up to Heavyweight based on their size. Pogues was content with throwing out a single punch at a time while eating the calf kicks in what was a very lackluster fight.
Prior to competing at Heavyweight on DWCS in 2022, Pogues had competed at Light Heavyweight in his previous three fights. The first of those three was also on DWCS back in 2019, after he competed at Heavyweight for the first time in his career earlier that year. While Pogues won his first Heavyweight fight, it’s important to point out that it came against an opponent who was making his pro debut, is now 0-4, and who dropped down to 205 lb for his next fight and then all the way down to 185 lb for the one after that. In his first DWCS appearance, Pogues landed 7 of his 11 takedown attempts and won a unanimous 30-27 decision, but was not awarded a UFC contract. He then got submitted in the fourth round of his next fight before winning a decision in September 2020. Following that win he took 23 months off before moving back up to Heavyweight for his last second appearance on DWCS. Pogues’ last three wins have all come by decision, and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2019 when he knocked out an opponent making his pro debut.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Pogues has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. His only KO/TKO loss came in the second round of his 2016 pro debut, which took place at 185 lb, while he was submitted in the later rounds in each of his other two losses, which both took place at 205 lb. Pogues has one fight at 185 lb (2016 R2 KO L), nine fights at Light Heavyweight (7-2), and three fights at Heavyweight (3-0). Only five of Pogues’ 10 pro wins came against opponents with winning records, with all five of those wins going the distance. His five finishes came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 1-2, 0-0, 0-1, and 0-0.
Overall, Pogues is a BJJ black belt and started training jiu-jitsu as a teenager. He’s only fought twice in the last 34 months, and is still adapting his body to the move up from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight. He only has three Heavyweight fights and all of those were against low-level opponents, so it’s still hard to know how much success he can have in the division. Between his two DWCS matches and his recent UFC debut, Pogues landed 12 of his 24 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just one of their three attempts (66.7% defense). He hasn’t looked very dangerous on the feet, and despite being a BJJ black belt he only has one submission win on his record. He trains at Syndicate so he has regular access to the UFC PI and claims to be improving his strength and conditioning, but we’ll let the results speak for themselves. Now he’ll face a true Heavyweight grappler, opposed to a blown up Light Heavyweight, so it will be interesting to see how strong Pogues looks in the clinch and grappling exchanges.
Mick Parkin
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut with an undefeated record following a first round submission win on DWCS, Parkin only turned pro in 2019 but has finished all six of his opponents in the first two rounds. He’s exclusively been fighting on the England regional scene, where there aren’t a ton of Heavyweight fighters to train with according to Tom Aspinall, who’s one of Parkin’s training partners. None of Parkin’s first five opponents came in with winning records, and he’s been beating up on a very low level of competition.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Parkin has five KO/TKO wins and one submission victory. Four of those finishes ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than nine minutes.
Overall, Parkin is an English Heavyweight grappler, who’s still very green and hasn’t ever really been tested. The fact that he trains with Aspinall is encouraging, but that could also mean the UFC brought him onto DWCS and into the big show before he was actually ready to compete at the UFC level, which they tend to do with training partners of high profile fighters. Parkin clearly has rare Heavyweight wrestling upside, but he hasn’t showcased his striking a ton and also has unknown cardio. He just secured the first submission win of his career, but had mostly been looking to end with relentless ground and pound before that. Parkin gets to make his debut in front of his home crowd, so he’ll have tons of support, but also a lot of pressure.
Fight Prediction:
Parkin will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This is a rare Heavyweight grappling match, where both fighters are typically looking to get fights to the ground and take advantage of the fact that most Heavyweights are helpless off their backs. It will be interesting to see if their grappling cancels each other out to some extent or if one of them has a clear advantage. Pogues has more experience, but Parkin is the true Heavyweight in this matchup and could have the strength advantage because of that. Pogues may have the cardio advantage, as he’s gone the distance five times in his career, winning all five of those decisions, while Parkin has never been in a fight that lasted longer than nine minutes. There are a ton of unanswered questions surrounding both guys in this matchup, but especially Parkin, which makes this a volatile spot and a tough fight to predict. Parkin has been a finisher, while Pogues has been grinding out decisions, but we have no way of knowing if Parkin even has the gas tank to go three rounds. Both guys are live to finish the other, and it will likely come down to who can find their way to a dominant position on the mat, although this is a Heavyweight fight so no one will be shocked to see a standing knockout either. With that said, Pogues hasn’t looked especially dangerous and has still looked like a blown up Light Heavyweight out there, so in a volatile fight we’re more inclined to take the plus money on the newcomer then lay the chalk on Pogues. This fight could go a lot of ways and may end up as a sloppy back and forth wrestling match, but we’ll say Parkin wins by TKO.
Our favorite bet here is “Parkin KO” at +420.
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DFS Implications:
Pogues landed five takedowns in his recent UFC debut, but still only scored 82 DraftKings points due to his low striking output. He’s a rare Heavyweight grappler who hasn’t shown much upside and needs to get busier on the mat if he really wants to score well. His previous decision win on DWCS only would have scored 58 points on DraftKings and 61 on FanDuel, in a fight where he failed to land either of his takedown attempts. The last time he finished anybody was in 2019 and most of Pogues’ career was spent down at Light Heavyweight. Now he’ll face a fellow Heavyweight grappler, who has very little pro experience, which makes this a more volatile spot. It’s hard to know how the grappling exchanges will go or if their skill sets will cancel each other out to some extent. Parkin has also never been past the second round, so the potential for him to gas out is there, especially considering he’s making his UFC debut in front of his home crowd and an adrenaline dump is always possible. If that were to happen, then Pogues would be looking at a golden opportunity to find a finish and score well, but that’s just one of many possible outcomes. Pogues could also find himself getting smothered on his back and he has a wide range of potential scoring outcomes in this low-level Heavyweight fight. He’s shown us he can fail to score well even in a wrestling-heavy decision win, so there are more ways for him to fail than succeed, but the theoretical scoring ceiling is still there in this volatile matchup. The odds imply Pogues has a 59% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Parkin is a bit of a wildcard as he only has six pro fights to his name and only one of those was against an opponent with a winning record. He’s been beating up bums on the England regional scene, but he does at least train with Tom Aspinall. It’s really hard to gauge how talented he actually is, but his wrestling-heavy style of fighting offers a huge ceiling when executed successfully. Unlike Pogues, Parkin will really let his hands go on the mat and has shown the ability to rack up ground and pound on his way to finding finishes. When you combine that with his cheap price tag, it’s much harder to see him fail in a win here. Just keep in mind, Pogues is a BJJ black belt and a fellow grappler, so this will be a big step up in competition for Parkin, who has the potential to look anywhere from terrible to amazing. Parkin is probably the most volatile fighter on the card when it comes to scoring potential, and we’re very interested in seeing how this fight plays out. The odds imply Parkin has a 41% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Joel Alvarez
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Seventeen months removed from a R2 ground and pound TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan, Alvarez had been scheduled to fight earlier this year but ended up withdrawing. Tsarukyan was able to take Alvarez down and dominate him on the mat, while remaining out of danger against the dangerous guard player. Prior to that, Alvarez landed the most impressive win of his career in a first round TKO win over Thiago Moises. Alvarez showed improved striking in that fight as he became the first fighter to ever finish Moises with strikes. Alvarez notably missed weight by 1.5 lb for that fight which just further accentuated the size difference, as Alvarez was 6” taller and had a 7” longer reach. That was Alvarez’s second straight fight where he missed weight after he came in 3.5 lb over the limit in his previous match, although he was able to hit the mark in his most recent match. Leading up to the loss in his last fight, Alvarez had landed four straight finishes in under a round and a half, after dropping a decision in his 2019 UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov. Alvarez’s last three wins all came in 181 seconds or less.
Now 19-3 as a pro, Alvarez has three KO/TKO wins and 16 submission victories. Eighteen of his 19 finishes have come in the first round, with 13 of those ending in round one. The only time he’s ever finished anybody beyond the midway point in round two was in a 2015 R3 guillotine in his fifth pro match. He’s been knocked out twice himself and lost the only decision he’s ever been to.
Overall, Alvarez is a weight bully and primarily a guard playing submission specialist who’s known for his guillotines, but has variety of submissions he can throw up as he has two wins by armbar, four by guillotine, seven triangles, one Brabo choke, and two Anacondas. He’s also made improvements to his striking and is capable of knocking opponents out on the feet as he showed against Moises. Three of his four UFC wins have come against struggling opponents and it’s been almost two years since Alvarez last won a fight, while he’s also struggled to make 155 lb at multiple times. In his six UFC fights, he’s never attempted a takedown, while he’s been taken down on all six of his opponent attempts. But don’t get it twisted, he wants opponents to take him down as his favorite position to work out of is on his back in the full guard. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s been spamming takedowns lately and has been prone to getting stuck in guillotines. Can you guess what everyone is expecting to happen here?
Marc Diakiese
14th UFC Fight (7-6)Looking to bounce back from a December 2022 decision loss to Michael Johnson, Diakiese has gone the distance in 8 of his last 10 fights (4-4), with the two exceptions being a pair of guillotine losses. The last time he finished anybody was in 2017, when he knocked out a terrible Teemu Packalen 30 seconds into the first round. In his last fight, Diakiese failed to take Johnson down on any of his six takedown attempts, while Johnson outlanded Diakiese 83-55 in striking. Prior to that, Diakiese capitalized on a pair of dream wrestling matchups against one-dimensional strikers Viacheslav Borshchev and Damir Hadzovic, where Diakiese combined to land 19 of his 29 takedown attempts in six straight rounds of smothering wrestling as cruised to a pair of decision wins. Diakiese is still just 4-6 in his last 10 fights and has lost the last five fights where he failed to land a takedown, but won the last four where he landed one or more.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Diakiese has six wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and nine decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Diakiese’s only two finishes in the UFC came in 2016 and 2017 knockouts against low-level opponents who finished their respective UFC careers 0-3 and 1-3.
Overall, Diakiese made a name for himself early in his career with his flashy striking, but he’s basically turned into a one-dimensional wrestler lately and hasn’t been very impressive on the feet. The last and only time he won a fight without landing a takedown was in 2017, which coincidentally was also the last time he finished anybody. In his 13 UFC fights, he’s landed 35 takedowns on 80 attempts (43.8% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 10 of their 31 attempts (67.7% defense). He’s 6-1 in UFC fights where he’s landed at least one takedown, but just 1-5 when he’s failed to land any. He only averages 2.73 SSL/min and 2.63 SSA/min and has never landed more than 68 significant strikes in a fight.
Fight Prediction:
Alvarez will have a 5” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This is one of those slow motion trainwreck fights where everyone knows what’s coming (or at least thinks they) and it’s just a matter of when it’s going to happen. Alvarez has one of the more dangerous guards in the division and a nasty guillotine, and Diakiese’s only two early losses have both come by guillotine. Diakiese also isn’t the brightest guy, tends to leave his neck exposed on takedowns, and has been reliant on finding wrestling success to win fights. So while it should be painfully obvious to him that shooting for takedowns is a bad idea, we’re not sure he’s smart enough to truly realize that or capable of even winning a pure striking battle here. Alvarez is the taller and longer fighter and looked really dangerous in the striking exchanges against Moises, so this is kind of a pick your poison spot for Diakiese. The smartest game plan for Diakiese would be to try and win a low-volume technical striking battle where he attempts to take Alvarez into the later rounds and test his cardio, while not eating too many big shots early on. Alvarez has only won a single fight that made it past the midway point of round two and cuts a ton of weight to compete at Lightweight, so we could see him slow down in the later rounds. However, relying on Diakiese to make smart decisions is an exercise in futility, so we don’t have much confidence that he’ll avoid getting submitted early on in this fight. So we’ll hop on the chalk train and say Alvarez wins by submission in the first round and a half of this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Joel Alvarez ITD” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Alvarez has averaged 99 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, but despite all of those wins coming in the first two rounds, he’s only topped 97 points once. The reason he typically doesn’t put up big scores in his finishes is simple—he’s a guard player who invites opponents to take him down but has never even attempted an official takedown of his own. While he excels at locking up submissions off his back, he did show improved striking in his last win, when he became the first fighter to ever finish Thiago Moises with strikes. However, that was all the way back in 2021 and Alvarez has struggled with inactivity lately. Perhaps his striking has continued to grow in his time away, but only time will tell. Diakiese has never been knocked out, but has been prone to getting submitted, specifically by guillotine, and has done nothing but spam takedowns in recent fights. While that sets up well for Alvarez to lock up another defensive submission, it lowers his chances of landing the knockout he needs to really score well. At his high price tag, there’s a very good chance that Alvarez gets left out of winning tournament lineups in a submission win, unless he gets it in the first 60 seconds of the fight and is awarded the Quick Win Bonus. Nevertheless, Alvarez projects to be popular, making him an easy fade in tournaments. The odds imply Alvarez has a 64% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Diakiese is one of the easiest fighters to project in all of the UFC, but somehow the field still has no clue when they should or shouldn’t be playing him. Diakiese had two terrible matchups and two dream matchups in his last four fights, yet he was 25-27% owned on DraftKings in all four of those matches. His last two decision wins were good for 113 and 119 DraftKings points, but just 76 and 96 points on FanDuel. That will be enough for the contextually oblivious portion of the field to play him at his cheap price tag here, especially when they see Alvarez HaS a 0% tAkeDoWn DeFeNsE. Anyone that’s actually watched Alvarez fight knows that he welcomes being taken down and would rather pull guard then attempt a takedown of his own. The idea that Diakiese could attempt double digit takedowns here while remaining out of danger is farfetched, and this isn’t where you want to get caught chasing boxscores. Diakiese has never won a decision in the UFC without landing multiple takedowns, and if he goes for takedown here he’ll likely get submitted. That appears to leave him reliant on landing a knockout, something he hasn’t done since 2017. The odds imply Diakiese has a 36% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Jonny Parsons
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Parsons will be making his UFC debut following a 21 month layoff after he won a split decision on DWCS in October 2021 against Solomon Renfro. Parsons was in trouble in the first round of that fight as he ate a combination of strikes along the fence, but was able to survive and ultimately squeak out a close decision to the shock of Renfro. In a recent interview, Parsons disclosed that he got knocked out cold in training six weeks prior to that fight and then battled concussion symptoms for a while after the match. That forced him to take six months off from training altogether, and then when he finally got medically cleared in late 2022 he was struggling with his weight, which further extended his layoff. Now that he’s finally back, Parsons said he wants to land a first round knockout here and then hopefully fight twice more this year. Prior to competing at 170 lb on DWCS, Parsons had fought at three different Catchweights (175 lb, 195 lb, and 180 lb) with the iKon Fighting Federation in matches that took place in a ring opposed to a cage. Parsons knocked out all three of those opponents, after winning a 2019 decision in his second most recent 170 lb fight. He lost back-to-back 170 lb fights leading up to that decision, one by R2 KO and another by decision. His last three 170 lb fights have all gone the distance.
Now 8-3 as a pro, Parsons has six wins by KO/TKO and two decision wins. All six of those knockouts came in the first two rounds, with three ending in round one and three ending in round two. He has two TKO losses (both in R2), and one decision defeat. Six of his last seven fights made it out of round one. Parsons turned pro all the way back in 2013, but rarely competed early in his career, with just three fights in his first four years as a pro. He only had five fights under his belt by 2019 when he finally started getting more active, competing twice a year for the next three years leading up to his recent hiatus. It’s been almost 10 years since he turned pro, yet he only has 11 fights on his record. We’ve yet to see him face any legitimate competition, as most of his opponents have entered with journeyman-like records. He’s gone just 2-2 in his last four fights at 170 lb, with one of those wins coming in a close/questionable split decision on DWCS and the other being a 2019 decision over an 11-7 opponent who is just 2-5 in his last seven outings.
Overall, Parsons is a beer can of a man, who’s just 5’9” but has competed as high as 195 lb. He’s a one-dimensional striker who coaches Thai boxing at Syndicate MMA, and hasn’t shown any sort of grappling ability, unless you count landing ground and pound from top position. He does a really good job of checking kicks and also landing kicks of his own, but he generally doesn’t put up huge striking numbers and by our count he was outlanded by his last three opponents. Unless we’re going by girth, Parsons is undersized at 170 lb and it will likely struggle with the size of opponents at the UFC level. At the same time, three of Parsons’ last four fights have been at above 170 lb and he admitted he struggled to get his weight down during his recent time away, so he’ll obviously be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Danny Roberts
14th UFC Fight (7-6)Coming off a first round TKO loss to Jack Della Maddalena, Roberts has lost his last two and four of his last six fights. He was lucky to even win two of those as he stole a split decision over Ramazan Emeev in 2021. His only legitimate win since 2018 was a 2019 R2 KO against Zelim Imadaev, who finished 0-3 in the UFC. Roberts has been finished in five of his six UFC losses, with the one exception being a decision loss to an undersized and aging decision grinder in Francisco Trinaldo, who still nearly finished Roberts at multiple points in the later rounds. Since 2019, Roberts has only fought three times, so he hasn’t been very active and is now 36 years old.
Now 18-7 as a pro, Roberts has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. Six of his seven career losses have come early, with four KO/TKOs and two submissions. His only decision loss occurred in his second most recent fight, and he was moments away from being finished at multiple points in that match. He’s been knocked out in under three and a half minutes three times in the UFC, submitted once in the third round, and has another third round KO loss. Nine of his 13 UFC fights have ended early (4-5).
Overall, Roberts started his MMA training with boxing, and is primarily a striker who throws good knees out of the clinch, but will sporadically shoot for takedowns, although struggles to land many of those attempts. In his 13 UFC fights, he only landed 2 of his 19 takedown attempts (10.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 17 of their 40 attempts (57.5% defense). While he’s a decent striker, he has a pretty low fight IQ and lacks any sort of durability as he constantly finds ways to get finished. Originally from England, Roberts has been training out of Kill Cliff FC, but that doesn’t appear to have helped his durability or defenses any. He only averages 3.08 SSL/min and 3.50 SSA/min, and while we often see finishes in his fights, we rarely see a ton of striking volume. Roberts will be fighting in front of his home crowd. He’s had three previous UFC fights in England (1-2), all of which ended early.
Fight Prediction:
Roberts will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while Parsons is five years younger than the 36-year-old Roberts.
This is a low-level matchup between a stout one-dimensional striker and a glass-chinned veteran fighting in front of his home crowd. While Roberts would be wise to try and wrestle here, and we expect he’ll try, he’s only landed two total takedowns in 13 UFC fights. That’s not encouraging for his chances of finding much success, although he will have a massive size advantage. Parsons offers nothing off his back, so Roberts could mask his lack of durability by simply laying on Parsons for as long as he can. While Roberts is the much taller, longer, and more experienced fighter, we still don’t trust him to survive in extended striking exchanges, even if Parsons is completely unproven. The fact that Parsons hasn’t fought in nearly two years does add some volatility to the mix, but he’s shown more durability than Roberts and has decent power. We’ve seen Roberts get hurt to the body at multiple points and Parsons throws heavy body kicks that could easily crumple Roberts to the mat. Parsons is no threat to submit anybody and doesn’t throw a ton of volume, and will now be fighting in enemy territory. So he likely needs to land a knockout to win, although if this somehow goes the distance it’s possible he could win a decision based on damage. If Roberts can get his wrestling going, he’ll have a shot at grinding out a decision or maybe even locking up a hail mary submission, although the last time he submitted anybody was in his 2015 UFC debut. However, we’ll bet against Roberts’ chin from now until the end of time, so we’ll take the shorter, fatter, less experienced fighter, who’s making his UFC debut in enemy territory following a 21 month layoff, to win by KO. What could go wrong?
Our favorite bet here is “Parsons KO” at +180.
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DFS Implications:
Parsons comes into the UFC littered with red flags as he hasn’t fought in 21 months, is only 5’9” but attempting to compete at 170 lb, struggles with his weight, has zero grappling skills, has exclusively fought terrible opponents, and dealt with ongoing concussion symptoms following his last fight. However, he gets to fight a glass-chinned Danny Roberts here and Parsons could be coming in with one leg and an eye patch and we’d still be giving him a solid chance to knock Roberts out. Parsons has at least shown knockout power and he’s the Thai boxing coach at Syndicate MMA so he’s been at the gym even if he hasn’t fought in a while. While his glaring deficiencies will almost certainly prevent him from going very far in the UFC at 170 lb, he’s getting one of the best matchups he could ask for in his debut. His portly stature and uninspiring performance on DWCS, combined with the line moving against him, should keep his ownership lower, which adds to his tournament appeal. Obviously low-level fighters like this are inherently volatile and come with uncertain floors, but Parsons has solid upside and a great shot at knocking Roberts out. The odds imply Parsons has a 49% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Roberts continues to showcase his lack of durability every time he steps inside the Octagon and has been finished in five of his six UFC losses, with three of those coming in under three and a half minutes. That leaves him with literally a zero point floor in DFS. He’s also only landed two total takedowns in 13 UFC appearances, while averaging just 3.08 SSL/min. That has resulted in him averaging just 60 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, failing to top 68 in any of those. He does have four finishes in the UFC, but only one since 2018, which came against an opponent who finished his UFC career with an 0-3 record, and the combined UFC record of the four opponents Roberts finished is a putrid 1-8. It looks like Roberts will need another finish here to be useful, unless he can suddenly get his grappling going and smother Parsons on the mat for three rounds. The line flipped in Roberts’ favor, so he’s now underpriced on DraftKings, which should bump his ownership up some, although he was only 12% owned in each of his last two fights. Ultimately, this is a low-level fight that will take place in front of Roberts’ home crowd, so anything could happen, but there’s a good chance Roberts gets knocked out once again. The odds imply Roberts has a 51% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Daniel Marcos
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Marcos kept his undefeated record intact with a second round knockout win in his recent UFC debut against Saimon Oliveira, where Marcos melted Oliveira with a combination of punches and knees to the body. Prior to that, Marcos punched his ticket to the UFC with a 2022 decision win on DWCS, where he destroyed the lead leg of his opponent and looked close to landing a leg kick TKO at multiple points. That was Marcos’ only other fight since 2019 following nearly a three year layoff. Before going on DWCS, Marcos spent his entire career fighting on the Peruvian regional scene.
Now 14-0 as a pro, Marcos has eight wins by KO/TKO and six decision victories. All eight of his finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with three ending in round one and five in round two. His last seven fights have all made it out of the first round, with three of those going the distance and four ending in second round knockout wins.
Overall, Marcos is a dangerous striker who throws heavy kicks and does a good job of mixing in knees with his striking combinations. He hasn’t shown much in the way of grappling and between his DWCS match and his recent UFC debut he failed to land his only takedown attempts. However, he was able to defend 16 of the 18 takedown attempts against him (88.9% defense). We’ve yet to see Marcos face any real high-level competition or anyone that’s ever won a UFC fight, so this will be a big step up in competition for him as he faces a veteran in Davey Grant.
Davey Grant
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Grant narrowly escaped his last fight with a win as he landed a very late third round submission after losing the first two rounds to Raphael Assuncao, who retired after the fight. The ending was somewhat controversial as Keith Peterson took a point from Grant with a minute left in the fight for a fence grab, but took away a favorable position from Assuncao on the mat in the process. Just after that, Grant dropped Assuncao with a spinning backfist and then locked up a reverse triangle. Had that fight lasted another 17 seconds and ended with the judges,Grant would have lost a decision, which would have been his third decision loss in his last four fights. While Grant was able to land a third round knockout against Louis Smolka in his second most recent fight, he lost a pair of decisions to Adrian Yanez and Marlon Vera just before that. Grant’s last four wins all ended in late finishes, and prior to losing to Vera he knocked out Jonathan Martinez in the second round and Martin Day in the third round. Grant originally joined the UFC in 2013, but only fought three times in his first five years with the organization as he dealt with numerous injuries and multiple long layoffs.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Grant has four wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and two decision victories. Eight of his nine career submissions occurred in his first 10 pro fights from 2008 to 2012, before he joined the UFC. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted four times and has two decision losses. His first three UFC losses all ended in submissions, although he now hasn’t been submitted since 2018. Ten of Grant’s 11 UFC fights have made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a 2018 59 second R1 submission loss to Manny Bermudez. Two of his UFC fights ended in round two (1-1), four ended in round three (3-1), and four have gone the distance. Two of his last three decisions have been split (1-1).
Overall, Grant is a 37-year-old English striker, who’s lack of activity early in his UFC career seems to have prolonged his shelf life. He throws big looping hooks from odd angles, while mixing it up with a variety of kicks and sporadic takedown attempts. He’s got good power for the division and a solid chin that allows him to keep his hands low, making it tougher to see his punches coming. In his 11 UFC fights, Grant has landed 12 takedowns on 28 attempts (42.9% accuracy), but he’s only landed one takedown in his last five matches combined. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down by his opponents 13 times on 35 attempts (62.9% defense). While Grant is a BJJ brown belt and has nine submission wins on his record and secured a late inverted triangle choke in his last fight, that’s his only submission win since 2012 and he’s generally looking to knock opponents out. This will be the first time Grant has gotten to fight in front of his home English crowd since 2016, when he got submitted in the third round of his third UFC fight.
Fight Prediction:
Grant will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach. Marcos is seven years younger than the 37-year-old Grant.
This should be a fun striking battle between two guys who both come in looking to throw down on the feet. They each mix in kicks well, but Marcos also does a really good job of landing knees and attacking opponents at all levels. Grant hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last three fights, and we’ve yet to see Marcos land a takedown going back to his DWCS match, so we expect this one to remain standing and has potential Fight of the Night implications. Neither guy has ever been knocked out, so it won’t be shocking if this goes the distance, but with the amount of damage we’re expecting to see it also won’t be surprising if someone gets knocked out in the later rounds. Grant will have the home crowd behind him, but his age is beginning to become a concern and at some point soon we expect to see him start to fall off. Because Marcos has never fought any high-level opponents, it’s trickier to know how he’ll fare in this step up in competition, but he looked good in his recent debut. We’ll say this ends in a close decision that could go either way, but home field advantage could be enough for Grant to pull off the upset, so we’re willing to take the dog shot on him at plus money.
Our favorite bet here is “Davey Grant R3 or DEC” at +270.
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DFS Implications:
Marcos scored 104 DraftKings in his recent second round knockout win in his debut, after winning a decision on DWCS that would have been good for just 79 DraftKings points and 81 points on FanDuel. He hasn’t shown anything in terms of grappling, which leaves him reliant on landing knockouts to score well unless he can put up an insane amount of striking volume. Working against him, Grant has never been knocked out and will have the home crowd behind him, although Grant is also 37 years old and at some point his durability may no longer be there. We’re expecting a brawl here with a decent amount of striking volume, so if Marcos can land a knockout he should score pretty well, even if it comes in the later rounds. The odds imply Marcos has a 56% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Grant has averaged 93 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, scoring at least 86 points in all of those. While his last four wins all ended early, he failed to top 100 points in his last three or 90 points in his last two. He’s shown a really solid floor, but has only once hit the century mark on DraftKings, which was in a 2020 R3 KO where he scored 101 points. However, that’s more of a concern when he’s priced as the favorite and with his cheaper price here he doesn’t have to put up a huge score to be useful. Even in his two decision wins he was able to score 89 and 92 DraftKings points, although it’s been almost four years since he’s won a decision. With the home crowd behind him, we expect to see Grant coming in looking to put on an impressive performance and if this ends in a close decision he’s the more likely of the two to get his hand raised. The odds imply Grant has a 44% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Lerone Murphy
6th UFC Fight (4-0-1)Murphy is coming off a close/questionable split-decision win over Gabriel Santos, who was making his short notice UFC debut on the last London card. Murphy outlanded Santos 93-69 in significant strikes, but Santos was able to take Murphy down five times and control him for four minutes. That’s Murphy’s only fight since October 2021 and he’s really struggled with fight cancellations. Murphy originally made his UFC debut in 2019 and fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a draw, which is the only time he hasn’t come out victorious in a fight. He’s won four fights since that draw, with two of those wins ending in knockouts and two going the distance. The UFC hasn’t thrown him any bones and all of his fights have come against tough opponents.
Now 12-0-1 as a pro, Murphy has seven wins by KO/TKO and five decision victories. While his last knockout came 14 seconds into round two, his previous six all ended in round one. He’s alternated knockouts and decisions for his last seven fights and is coming off a decision for anyone into irrelevant patterns. Murphy started his pro career at 155 lb but dropped down to 145 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Murphy is a dangerous striker with good hands and seems to be trying to improve his grappling, but that’s still been the one area where he’s struggled. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed three takedowns on eight attempts (37.5% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents 17 times on 30 attempts (43.3% accuracy). He only averages 3.58 SSL/min and 2.64 SSA/min, but he’s coming off a career best 93 significant strikes landed. Murphy has decent power, but until he improves his defensive wrestling he’ll constantly be at risk of getting taken down when he overextends into striking combinations. That has limited his striking potential to this point, but now he’ll finally face another pure striker.
Josh Culibao
6th UFC Fight (3-1-1)Culibao recently locked up the first submission win of his career, which came in the second round against a one-dimensional kickboxer in Melsik Baghdasaryan this past February. Baghdasaryan outlanded Culibao 26-16 in significant strikes, while neither fighter attempted a takedown. Prior to that, Culibao won a split-decision over a dangerous striker in Seung Woo Choi, which was Culibao’s third straight trip to the judges (2-0-1). After suffering his only career loss in his February 2020 short notice UFC debut against Jalin Turner, which Culibao took up a weight class, he fought Charles Jourdain to a draw. He then won a decision over Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, before defeating Choi and Baghdasaryan most recently. The last time Culibao knocked anybody out was in a 2019 R1 TKO just before he joined the UFC.
Now 11-1-1 as a pro, Culibao has five wins by TKO, one submission, and five decision victories. Three of his five TKO wins occurred in the first round, although two of those came in his first three pro fights. His other two TKOs came in the championship rounds of 2016 and 2018 fights. His only loss came in a second round TKO in his UFC debut, although he also has a draw on his record. Interestingly, five of his six decisions have been split/majority.
Overall, Culibao is more or less of a one-dimensional striker, but just did land his first career submission win. In his five UFC fights, he’s yet to land a takedown on 11 attempts, while his opponents have only gotten him down on 3 of their 17 attempts (82.4% defense). Culibao has looked sharper and more dangerous in his last couple of fights, and at 29 years old he still appears to be improving. However, he still isn’t landing a ton of striking volume, as he’s averaging just 2.96 SSL and 3.13 SSA/min. No one has landed more than 55 significant strikes in any of his five UFC fights. And it’s not as if Culibao has been facing a ton of wrestlers to drive his striking numbers down, as his last two and three of his last four opponents have also been one-dimensional strikers. Now he’ll face another striker in Lerone Murphy.
Fight Prediction:
Culibao will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach.
This sets up as a fun striking battle to kick off the main card and Lerone Murphy has to be relieved not to be facing another grappler. While both of these guys prefer to keep fights standing, neither of them lands a ton of striking volume, with Murphy averaging 3.58 SSL/min and Culibao just 2.96 SSL/min. They’re both more concerned with landing big shots than volume, but they’ve also both been pretty durable. That raises the chances that this fight runs long, and likely goes the distance unless one of them is able to land the perfect kill shot. We give the edge to Murphy in striking and we’ll say he wins a close, lower volume decision, but everytime we doubt Culibao he makes us pay for it.
Our favorite bet here is Murphy’s ML at -140.
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DFS Implications:
Murphy is basically a one-dimensional striker, although will occasionally mix in a takedown attempt. While he’s yet to lose a fight in his career, he’s only once topped 82 DraftKings points, which was when he scored 107 DraftKings points in a 2020 first round knockout of Ricardo Ramos. His one other finish in the UFC was an early second round KO of Makwan Amirkhani that only scored 82 DraftKings after Murphy got controlled for the entire first round. Murphy only averages 3.58 SSL/min and 2.64 SSA/min, while Culibao averages just 2.96 SSL/min and 3.13 SSA/min, so this doesn’t set up for us to see a ton of striking volume. Culibao also has an 82% takedown defense and at Murphy’s somewhat expensive price tag he appears to need either a first round knockout or a late second round finish to be useful. This looks like a better real life fight than for DFS. The odds imply Murphy has a 56% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Culibao has yet to put up a usable DFS score, and despite landing a second round submission in his last fight, he only scored 77 DraftKings points. Just before that, he notched a pair of knockdowns in an exciting decision win, but only scored 76 points. His one other decision win was good for just 58 points on DraftKings, so he’s given us no indication he can score well either in decisions or later round finishes as he doesn't land much volume and has never taken anyone down. Now he’s facing an undefeated opponent in enemy territory, so this doesn’t look like a great spot for Culibao to find the early finish he needs to score well. However, he does throw with bad intentions, so there’s always a chance he could catch Murphy with something early on. And at Culibao’s cheap price tag, if we get another slate where very few dogs win he could be useful even if he doesn't put up a huge score. Nevertheless, we’re not very excited about playing him here. The odds imply Culibao has a 44% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Fares Ziam
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Ziam is coming off his most impressive performance to date in a decision win over a previously undefeated Michal Figlak, who was making his UFC debut in front of Ziam’s home Paris crowd. Ziam showed improvements to his wrestling in that fight, as he took Figlak down three times on seven attempts with nearly seven minutes of control time. Prior to that win, grappling had been Ziam’s Achilles heel, but apparently after getting submitted by Terrance McKinney in the first round of his previous fight he put in some work improving his ground game. The UFC actually released Ziam following his loss to McKinney, but they were in need of additional French fighters for the Paris card so they brought him right back on. Prior to the McKinney loss, Ziam won a pair of incredibly close decisions, one of which looked like he lost and the other could have easily been ruled a draw, after losing a decision on the mat in his 2019 UFC debut. Everyone Ziam has fought has been looking to take him down, so it makes complete sense he would focus on improving that area of his game after the UFC opted not to initially renew his contract.
Now 13-4 as a pro, Ziam has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decision victories. Three of his four submission wins came in his first four pro fights, with his only other submission occurring in a 2019 R3 guillotine just before he joined the UFC. He also hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018 and four of his five UFC fights have gone the distance. He’s never been knocked out himself, but he’s been submitted in the first round three times and has one decision loss. Ziam started his pro career off at 185 lb, before dropping down to 170 lb for his third pro fight. After two fights at 170 lb, Ziam then lost a 159 lb Catchweight match, before moving down to 155 lb in 2016, where he’s since gone 9-3.
Overall, Ziam is a French kickboxer who was far too tentative in his first four UFC fights. He’s largely a counter striker and only averages 2.52 SSL/min and 1.70 SSA/min. After landing just one takedown over his first four UFC fights, Ziam landed three in his last match, and he almost looked like a different fighter when it came to grappling. Over his five UFC fights, he’s landed 4 of his 16 takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 10 of their 34 attempts (70.6% defense). Ziam got taken down eight times in his first two UFC fights, but only twice in his last three matches. He’s still only 26 years old and if he continues to improve his grappling, he could be more of a problem for opponents. The only reason to pump the brakes here is to point out that his last fight came against a guy making his UFC debut and was in front of Ziam’s home Paris crowd as he made his triumphant return to the UFC after getting cut. So he did have a lot going for him in that spot and we still need to see continued progress in his grappling before we can be sure that wasn’t a mirage. Nevertheless, he’s been training at Kill Cliff FC since 2021 and it’s clear the change has done him good.
Jai Herbert
7th UFC Fight (2-3-1)After 14 of his first 15 pro fights ended early, Herbert has now fought to two straight decisions, after getting violently put to rest by Ilia Topuria on the March 2022 London Card. To Herbert’s credit, he dropped Topuria in the first round and is the only fighter to ever have Topuria in trouble, but keep in mind Topuria was fighting up a weight class and still came back to win with a highlight reel finish. Following that life-shortening knockout, we saw a slower pace in Hebert’s last two fights, with more grappling and fewer high-paced striking exchanges. He bounced back from the loss with a decision win over Kyle Nelson, where the two combined for over nine minutes of combined control time and just 77 total significant strikes landed (41-36 in favor of Nelson). After dropping the first round, Herbert came back to win both of the later rounds to get his hand raised with the judges for just the second time in his career. Then in his last fight against Ludovit Klein, Herbert would have won another decision, but lost a point in the third round after landing a pair of low blows, which forced a draw. Herbert landed the first takedown of his UFC career in that match, while also getting taken down twice himself, and we once again saw a large amount of control time. Prior to those two decisions, Herbert had eight straight fights end early (5-3) and had been finished in three of his first four UFC fights. He got knocked out in the third round of his UFC debut against Francisco Trinaldo, and then submitted in the second round by Renato Moicano. He bounced back with a first round knockout win over Khama Worthy, but then got knocked out by Topuria. The UFC took mercy on him following his brutal schedule and didn’t release him despite his 1-3 start, and you have to imagine he only agreed to the Topuria fight if it came with a new contract upfront, as that was his fourth fight in the UFC and presumably the last on his initial contract.
Now 12-4-1 as a pro, Herbert has nine wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. He’s been finished in all four of his career losses, with three knockouts and one submission. All three of his UFC losses came in the later rounds, with two ending in round two and one in round three. Herbert started his amateur career at 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb in 2014 just before going pro, where he's stayed since. He has only been to the third round five times in his career, with three of those going the distance, but five of his six UFC UFC fights have made it out of round one. Nine of his 10 early wins occurred in the first two rounds.
Overall, Herbert is a solid striker with fast hands, but is very prone to getting knocked out and he’s a liability on the mat. We have seen him tighten some things up in his last couple of fights, but historically he’s been a kill or get killed type of fighter. He’s a training partner of Leon Edwards at Team Renegade in the UK, but has also spent time at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. He only averages 2.55 SSL/min and 2.92 SSA/min, and he’s never landed more than 43 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorbed more than 47. In his six UFC fights, he’s only landed one of his four takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 10 of their 21 attempts (52.4% defense). The only opponent to try and fail to take him down was Kyle Nelson, who’s 2-5 in the UFC. Herbert has had some bad knockout losses in the past and it’s hard to know where his head’s at these days. He’s still a very talented striker, but his lack of durability and poor defensive wrestling make it risky for him to get too aggressive, and he seems aware of that as he’s dialed things back some in his last two matches. He’s had more time to recover now so it will be interesting to see if we get a more aggressive version of him here or if Topuria permanently broke him.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1”, but Herbert will have a 2” reach advantage. Ziam is nine years younger than the 35-year-old Herbert.
This will be Herbert’s fourth straight fight in the O2 Arena in front of his home crowd, so he should be getting comfortable with it by now. This is sort of a doppelganger matchup as these two have nearly identical frames and both come from striking backgrounds. However, Ziam showed off some wrestling for the first time in his last match, so he could look to lean on that here as defensive wrestling has been a problem for both of these two in the past. While that would be the smartest game plan for Ziam, that doesn’t mean he’ll take it, and he could also be looking to showcase his striking after facing so many opponents who were trying to take him down. It’s honestly hard to know what his approach will be, and even Herbert could be looking to change things up with some grappling. While Herbert has been knocked out three times in the past, Ziam’s chin has yet to fail him, so you have to give the durability advantage to Ziam, but Herbert has the quicker hands and the more dangerous of the two. After Ziam was able to overpower a smaller opponent in Michal Figlak in the grappling exchanges, it will be interesting to see if he can find the same grappling success against someone his own size.
Ziam was able to fight in front of his home Paris crowd in his last fight, where he put on his best performance to date, but now he’ll be the one venturing into enemy territory. While Herbert is always at risk of getting knocked out, Ziam’s last KO win was all the way back in 2018 and it’s hard to trust him to finish anybody. All three of his UFC wins have gone the distance and he’s never even knocked anybody down. The potential for Ziam to wrestle could also drag this fight out. Neither guy has ever landed or absorbed more than 60 significant strikes in a UFC fight, and we’re not expecting a ton of striking volume in this one. So if we don’t get a finish, it could be a tricky one to score that comes down to who can find the most grappling success and who has the bigger moments—or who has the home crowd behind them. It’s hard to trust Herbert’s chin and takedown defense to both hold up, so we agree that Ziam deserves to be the rightful favorite, but Herbert is still live to either land a knockout or win a close decision. Our pick will be Ziam by decision, but this is a dicey one that could go a lot of ways.
Our favorite bet here is “Ziam DEC” at +210.
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DFS Implications:
Ziam is coming off the best performance of his life where he blew away all of his past scores, but he still only scored 96 DraftKings points. That’s more than double what he scored in his previous decision win (46), after he also only put up 67 puts in his first UFC decision victory. He’s yet to finish anybody with the organization, which has capped his upside, but if he continues to look to wrestle more he’ll at least put himself into the DraftKings discussion. This sets up as a good matchup for him to continue to develop his ground game, as he squares off against the 52% takedown defense of Herbert, who’s been taken down by almost everyone that’s tried. Herbert has also shown very suspect durability, so there are multiple paths to scoring well for Ziam. The field would rather bathe in poison ivy than play Ziam in DFS, and he’s consistently low owned, coming in at 10%, 14%, and 8% in his last three fights. We could see that number rise slightly based on the scoring potential he showed in his last win combined with this high-upside matchup, but he’s not a guy that many people will want to pay up for. Therefore, he’ll make for an interesting low-owned, high-risk tournament option. The odds imply Ziam has a 59% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Herbert has been on the wrong end of more than one highlight reel knockout, while only having one finish of his own in the UFC. That knockout came in the first round of a 2021 fight against Khama Worthy, who was once knocked out by a screen door. Herbert’s one other UFC win came in a decision against a terrible Kyle Nelson, where Herbert only scored 65 DraftKings points. Herbert most recently fought to a draw, where he only would have scored 68 points had the decision gone his way, so he’s yet to show any scoring potential in fights that go the distance. Even at his cheap price tag, a score like that would require almost all of the other dogs on the slate to lose to propel him into tournament winning lineups. So it’s probably best to view Herbert as a KO or bust option, and he’s notably facing an opponent who’s never been knocked out. The odds imply Herbert has a 41% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Andre Muniz
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Coming off the first submission loss of his career, Muniz got finished late in the third round by Brendan Allen, after losing the first two rounds. That loss snapped a nine fight winning streak that dated back to 2016, with all nine of those wins ending in either first round submissions (6) or decisions (3). Muniz made his UFC debut in 2019 and won a decision over Antonio Arroyo, before rattling off three straight first round armbar submission wins. Two of those were against UFC veterans who had never been submitted before in Jacare Souza and Eryk Anders. Following the string of quick wins, Muniz won a decision over Uriah Hall in his last win. Despite taking Hall down four times on 10 attempts and controlling him for over 10 minutes, Muniz was unable to become the first fighter to ever submit the veteran. Muniz originally made his way into the UFC through DWCS, but it took him two tries after he failed to secure a contract with a 2018 decision win in his first appearance on the show. He righted that wrong with a first round submission win when he went back on the show.
Now 23-5 as a pro, Muniz has four wins by KO/TKO, 15 submissions, and four decision victories. Fifteen of Muniz’s 19 finishes have come in round one, three ended in round two, and one occurred in round three. However, 14 of his last 15 early wins have ended in the first round, with the one exception being a 2015 second round arm-triangle choke. He’s been knocked out in four of his five losses and submitted in the other. However, three of those four KO losses occurred very early on in his career from 2011 to 2013 and the other was in a 2016 Light Heavyweight fight against an undefeated Azamat Murzakanov, who’s since joined the UFC. Most of Muniz’s career has been spent at 185 lb, but he did have a stretch from 2015 to 2017 where he moved up to 205 lb.
Overall, Muniz is an extremely dangerous but one-dimensional grappler. Between his six UFC fights and two DWCS appearances, he’s landed 14 of his 38 takedown attempts (36.8% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents seven times on 12 attempts (41.7% defense). He only averages 2.12 SSL/min and 1.74 SSA/min and we never see much striking volume in his matches. We saw Muniz struggle against a fellow grappler in his last fight, so it will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes here as he takes on another grappler.
Paul Craig
16th UFC Fight (8-6-1)Dropping down to 185 lb for the first time in his career, Craig is coming off a first round TKO loss to Johnny Walker, after losing a decision to Volkan Oezdemir just before that. Craig finished four straight opponents just before that, including first round finishes of Nikita Krylov and Jamahal Hill in his last two victories. He also famously has a last second submission win over Magomed Ankalaev on his record. While Craig is generally a one-dimensional submission threat, two of his last three wins actually ended in TKOs. The most recent of those was due to the referee failing to stop the fight when he should have after Craig dislocated the elbow of Jamahal Hill with an armbar. Just prior to that win, Craig landed his first KO/TKO win in the UFC which came via ground and pound against a 38-year-old Mauricio Rua in a rematch of their previous fight that ended in a draw. Craig was able to take the back of a facedown Rua and opted to finish the fight with ground and pound as opposed to attempting a rear-naked choke like he normally would.
Now 16-6-1 as a pro, Craig has three TKO wins and 13 submission victories. He’s been knocked out four times (all in R1) and submitted once himself. He’s only been to two decisions in 23 pro fights, one of which came in his 2022 loss to Oezdemir and the other being a 2019 draw against Rua. Craig has only seen the third round five times in his career, with three of those ending in submission in the final 40 seconds (2-1). Fifteen of his pro fights ended in the first round (11-4), three ended in round two (3-0), and three more ended in round three (2-1).
Overall, Craig fights like a Venus flytrap. He has no problem pulling guard and drawing opponents into his comfort zone off his back. He’s a BJJ black belt who excels at throwing up armbars and triangle chokes. He’s never landed more than 51 significant strikes in a fight, and has only topped 31 once. Similarly, he has only once absorbed more than 59 significant strikes in a match, which occurred in his lone decision loss when he absorbed 72. His unique style of offensive grappling off his back typically means he’s losing fights until he’s not, which leaves him reliant on landing finishes to come out victorious. However, now he faces an opponent with a very similar style. With Craig cutting 20 lb, he’ll obviously be a guy to keep an eye on at weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Craig will have a 2” height advantage, but Muniz will have a 2” reach advantage and is two years younger than the 35-year-old Craig.
Both of these guys are guard players, so this is a weird spiderman meme matchup that could go a lot of ways. It’s possible we’ll see them tangle on the mat in a high-level grappling match, or the fight could remain mostly standing as neither wants to test the strength of the other. That’s more of what we’re expecting to see and this is a rare opportunity for both guys to really showcase their limited striking. The fact that Craig is dropping down to 185 lb for the first time adds some uncertainty, and could further deteriorate his already limited durability. However, Muniz might be the last guy who could actually take advantage of that, and he doesn't offer much in the way of power or volume when it comes to striking. Craig will have the home UK crowd behind him and even though he’s not a great striker himself, it won’t be shocking to see him find the first decision win of his career here. He’s also been good at locking up late submissions in the final minute of fights and Muniz just got caught sleeping in his last fight and was submitted in the third round. However, it’s hard to have much confidence in either of these two if it hits the scorecards. Both guys have been prone to getting knocked out, but neither offers much in the way of knockout power. The similarities all around are pretty remarkable and we’ll say that results in a close stalemate decision that narrowly goes Craig’s way.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +220.
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DFS Implications:
Muniz is an extremely dangerous submission specialist who’s only required the judges in 4 of his 28 pro fights, although has gone the distance in two of his six UFC matches. He’s coming off his first loss in his last 10 fights, but showed his limitations in that fight as he took on an opponent with solid grappling. The fight lasted 14 and a half minutes, but Muniz still only scored 18 DraftKings points in the third round submission loss. His two UFC decision wins were good for 92 and 76 DraftKings points and he’s relied entirely on first round submissions to really score well. Even then, his DFS ceiling is somewhat capped by how efficient he is, as he scored 108, 107, and 95 DraftKings points in his three UFC first round finishes. That makes it tougher for him to end up in tournament winning lineups at his high price tag and now he’s facing another grappler who will be tough to submit. Perhaps the cut down to 185 lb will impact Craig’s durability and Muniz can land a hail mary knockout, but Muniz is not a great striker and it’s tough to rely on that. Therefore, we don’t have much interest in playing Muniz here and he most likely busts in this spot. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Craig is coming off back-to-back losses and is now dropping down to 185 lb for the first time in his career, which adds some volatility to the mix in this fight. All 16 of his career wins have come early and you always know what to expect out of him as he tries to pull guard and submit opponents off his back. However, now he’s facing a very dangerous grappler and it will be interesting to see if Craigs still opts to go that route or if he looks to keep the fight standing. We’re kind of expecting the latter and we don’t see either fighter scoring well if this plays out as a low-volume striking battle, which it very well may. At least Craig’s cheap price tag could keep him in play without putting up a huge score, but both of his third round submission wins only scored 69 DraftKings points and and he scored just 39 points in a draw against Shogun Rua, which also would have scored exactly 69 points had the decision gone his way. Even at his cheap price tag, a similar score would likely not be enough for him to be useful unless all of the other underdogs on the slate lose, which could leave Craig more reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to score well. The odds imply Craig has a 34% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Nathaniel Wood
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off a pair of decision wins over Charles Jourdain and Charles Rosa, Wood has yet to lose a round since moving up from 135 lb to 145 lb for his last two fights. Despite being the smaller man, Wood was able to take Jourdain down five times and control him for four and a half minutes, as he did a great job of utilizing trips to get the fight to the mat. Just before that, Wood dominated Charles Rosa, finishing the fight ahead 30-26 on two of the three scorecards. Wood did a great job of beating up the lead leg of Rosa in that fight, as he landed 31 leg strikes and almost doubled Rosa up in total strikes landed. Wood made his UFC debut in 2018, starting out 3-0, but then went 1-2 in his next three matches before deciding to move up a weight class due to how brutal his weight cuts had become. All eight of Wood’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with six making it to round three, and his last four going the distance, after his first four all ended early.
Now 19-5 as a pro, Wood has nine wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice more, and has one decision loss. While only six of his 24 pro fights have made it to the judges, he hasn’t finished anybody since 2019.
Overall, Wood is a well-rounded fighter and a solid striker who lands a ton of striking volume, averaging 6.34 SSL/min and 4.42 SSA/min. He does a good job of attacking his opponents’ legs, landing 22 leg strikes against Jourdain, 31 against Rosa, 57 against Kenney, and 58 against John Castaneda in his last four fights. We’ve yet to see him knock anyone out at the UFC level, and now that he’s moved up a weight class it may be even tougher for him, but he did land three straight late-round submission wins in his first three UFC fights. He does a good job of mixing in takedowns, and in his eight UFC fights, he’s landed 12 takedowns on 22 attempts (54.5% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in seven of his last eight fights. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on just 6 of their 23 attempts (73.9% defense). Wood will be fighting in front of his home crowd on this London card. The last time we saw him fight in London was when he dominated Charles Rosa, while Wood’s last fight was in Paris, and he hasn’t had to travel much lately for fights.
Andre Fili
20th UFC Fight (10-8, NC)Fili won a split decision over Bill Algeo in his last fight, but that’s his only win in his last four matches and he’s struggled to string wins together throughout his UFC career. This will be his 20th UFC fight and he’s never won three in a row with the organization, and only twice won two in a row. Prior to his recent win, Fili suffered a 41 second R1 TKO loss to Joanderson Brito, following an unfortunate No Contest due to an eye poke against Daniel Pineda in a fight Fili was absolutely dominating and looked close to finishing at multiple points. Just before that, Fili lost a decision to Bryce Mitchell, won a decision over Charles Jourdain, and lost a decision to Sodiq Yusuff. Ignoring his No Contest, Fili has gone the distance in 10 of his last 12 fights (6-4), with the two exceptions being his 2022 R1 TKO loss to Brito and a 2019 R1 KO win over Sheymon Moraes. Four of Fili’s last seven decisions have been split (3-1). In fairness to Fili, he’s fought a lot of really tough competition in his UFC career, with six of his eight losses coming against Max Holloway, Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, Michael Johnson, Sodiq Yusuff, and Bryce Mitchell. And while he rarely wins multiple fights in a row, he’s also never lost two in a row in his entire career.
Now 22-9 as a pro, Fili has nine wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has four decision defeats. Fili hasn’t submitted anybody since 2012 and his last four finishes have all come by KO/TKO. Eleven of his 12 career finishes occurred in the first two rounds, with seven in round one and four in round two. All three of his early wins in the UFC have come by knockout in six minutes or less, with the last two ending in round one. However, the last time he knocked anybody out was in 2019, with his second most recent KO win coming all the way back in 2015.
Overall, Fili is a versatile veteran with both solid wrestling and striking. He can also seamlessly work out of both the orthodox and southpaw stances, making him a tough guy to prepare for overall. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume (3.83 SSL/min) and not counting his No Contest, he actually finished behind in significant strikes in his last five fights. In his last 10 fights, Fili landed 16 of his 33 takedown attempts (48.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 37 attempts (78.4% defense), with seven of those opponent takedowns coming from Bryce Mitchell, who had 13 attempts in their match. The only other opponent to get Fili down in his last 10 fights was Dennis Bermudez, who landed just 1 of his 11 attempts back in 2018. In fairness, five of Fili’s last 10 opponents didn’t even try to take him down. The last time Fili tried to take an opponent down without landing at least one of his attempts was in 2017 when he fought Calvin Kattar. Fili has been a longtime member of Team Alpha Male dating back to 2009 when he turned pro.
Fight Prediction:
Fili will have a 5” height and reach advantage and is four years older than the 29-year-old Wood.
These two appear pretty evenly matched, as they’re both well rounded, while neither has a ton in the way of knockout power. Fili is the taller, rangier fighter, but Wood does a great job of utilizing leg kicks and Fili’s long legs and wider stance should leave him vulnerable to getting his lead leg attacked. Both guys have pretty solid wrestling, so while we could see a few takedowns landed, we expect the grappling exchanges to be largely a wash. That should result in this playing out primarily as a striking battle, where Wood averages 6.34 SSL/min to just the 3.83 SSL/min of Fili. Wood will also have the home crowd behind him, so Fili will have a tougher time getting his hand raised if this goes the distance, which it most likely will. We’re taking Wood by decision in this one, in what should be a good fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Wood DEC” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Wood has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins. His first three wins with the organization all ended in late round submissions, where he averaged 104 points, while his last three all went the distance, with him averaging 92 points. While he was able to score 109 points in the most recent of those decisions. That required him landing a career best five takedowns, which came against the terrible defensive wrestling of Charles Jourdain. Wood had previously never landed more than two takedowns in a UFC fight and he only scored 77 and 90 DraftKings points in his other two decision wins. He also lost a close, high-volume decision to Casey Kenney in 2020, but still only would have scored 85 points had that gone his way. So he appears reliant on either landing a finish or finding a lot of grappling success to return value here at his expensive price tag. Fili has much better wrestling than Jourdain and the only fighter to take Fili down in his last nine fights was Bryce Mitchell. It won’t be shocking to see Wood land a takedown or two, but we would be surprised by anything more than that, leaving Wood more reliant on landing a finish. And with that in mind, all three of Wood’s UFC finishes have come by submission and he hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018, when he was still fighting down at 135 lb. The most likely result here is that this remains mostly on the feet and Wood wins a decision but doesn’t score quite enough to be useful. However, Wood should have a pretty solid scoring floor and Fili has been finished in five of his nine pro losses, so there’s always a chance Wood can find a finish with the home crowd behind him. The odds imply Wood has a 66% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fili has averaged 90 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC fights, with six of his last seven wins going the distance. This will be his 20th UFC fight, but he only has three early wins with the organization and two of those occurred in 2013 and 2015. His only other UFC finish was a 2019 R1 KO. At his cheap price tag, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he lands an unlikely finish here, but it’s less cut and dry if he wins a decision. In his seven UFC decision wins, Fili averaged a respectable 82 DraftKings points. However, after averaging 90 points in the first four of those, he only averaged 71 points his the last three, with scores of just 68,77, and 69. He only averages 3.83 SSL/min, so he’s typically reliant on mixing in a decent amount of takedowns to score well with the judges, and now he’s facing the 73% takedown defense of Wood. Perhaps Fili’s size advantage will allow him to overpower Wood in the grappling exchanges, but we’re not counting on it. It’s not impossible for Fili to still serve as a value play in a decision, but it may require all of the other cheap underdogs to lose. We expect this to be a better real life fight than for DFS and we’re not super excited about playing either guy in what looks like a fairly even matchup. The odds imply Fili has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Molly McCann
11th UFC Fight (6-4)McCann’s super powers continue to only exist when she’s fighting in front of her home English crowd, and when she flew across the pond to New York in her last fight she got dominated by Erin Blanchfield and submitted in the first round. Prior to that, she landed back-to-back knockouts against Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy on a pair of London cards. Both of those finishes notably came against strikers, where McCann didn’t have to worry too much about getting taken down and could let her hands go and be as wild as she wanted. While her last three fights all ended early, McCann had fought to six straight decisions before that (4-2), after she got submitted in the second round of her 2018 UFC debut against Gillian Robertson. McCann lost to all four of the grapplers she’s faced in the UFC, but defeated all six of the strikers she’s faced. Both of her finishes in the UFC ended in spinning back elbows, while both of her early losses ended in submissions.
Now 13-5 as a pro, McCann has six wins by KO/TKO and seven decisions. She’s been submitted twice and has three decision losses. While her last two fights both ended in round one, she had seen the second round in 11 straight fights leading up to that.
Overall, McCann brings a WWF vibe to the Octagon as she looks to put on a good show every time they lock her in the cage. She’s a high-volume striker who averages 5.72 SSL/min and 4.90 SS/min, and she also mixes in takedowns, averaging 1.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Her biggest weaknesses are getting taken down herself and operating off her back, which is why she’s struggled so much against grapplers. When she faces strikers and has the luxury of standing and banging or looking for takedowns of her own, she’s never lost a UFC fight. In her 10 UFC fights, McCann has been taken down 16 times on 29 opponent attempts (44.8% defense). She’s faced four grapplers in the UFC and if we just look at those fights, she was taken down 15 times on 21 attempts (28.6% defense). That’s not super encouraging for her here as she goes up against another grappler.
Julija Stoliarenko
6th UFC Fight (1-4)After fighting at a 140 lb Catchweight in her last match, Stoliarenko is surprisingly now dropping all the way down to 125 lb for the first time in her career. That’s obviously concerning considering Stoliarenko has passed out on the scale trying to make 135 lb in the past and she’ll obviously be a fighter to keep a close eye on during weigh-ins. She got knocked out in the first round by Chelsea Chandler in her last match, after locking up her lone UFC win in a first round armbar against Jessica-Rose Clark, who was submitted in her last three UFC fights. Stoliarenko originally made her UFC debut back in 2018 on the The Ultimate Fighter finale but lost a decision to a terrible Leah Letson. Following that loss, Stoliarenko returned to the regional scene for two years before getting a second shot in the UFC. However, she then lost three straight fights against a trio of UFC veterans in Yana Kunitskaya, Julia Avila, and Alexis Davis, before saving her job in the win over Clark.
Now 10-7-2 as a pro, nine of Stoliarenko’s 10 career wins have come by first round armbar, with her only other victory ending in a 2020 Invicta five-round split decision. She’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has three decision losses. She had a strange start to her career, with two late round TKO losses and a pair of draws in her first five pro fights. She’s gone just 1-6-2 in fights that have made it past the first round.
Overall, Stoliarenko is a BJJ black belt and an armbar specialist. She has okay striking, but has looked very hittable, as she averages 2.75 SSL/min and 4.61 SSA/min. Everyone in the world knows her gameplan, as she is always looking to get fights to the ground to hunt for armbars, which eliminates the element of surprise for her. That makes it very easy to game plan for her. In her six UFC fights, Stoliarenko landed 3 of her 12 takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 3 of their 8 attempts (62.5% accuracy). Stoliarenko has been finished in four of her seven losses and now that she’s cutting an additional 10 lb we don’t have much confidence in her ability to survive for three rounds.
Fight Prediction:
Stoliarenko will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
We normally have two rules with Molly McCann—always bet her in London and always fade her against grapplers. Those two concepts contradict each other here, making this a somewhat trickier spot. With that said, Stoliarenko has been a R1 armbar or bust fighter throughout her career, and now she’s cutting down to 125 lb for the first time. It’s so painfully obvious what Stoliarenko’s game plan will be, the idea that she could successfully execute it in McCann’s backyard is mind numbingly painful to even think about. She’s basically the Babe Ruth of the UFC minus the talent. However, McCann has really struggled against grapplers, so there’s always a chance Stoliarenko can find success controlling her on the mat. The only problem with that is Stoliarenko will give up positions to go for armbars and has the IQ of a rock. So as long as McCann doesn’t get armbarred, we like her to win either by knockout or decision. Based on Stoliarenko’s history of getting finished, her cut down to 125 lb, and McCann turning into the Hulk every time she fights in England, we’ll say McCann lands another knockout here.
Our favorite bet here is “McCann KO” at +175.
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DFS Implications:
McCann finds an extra gear when you stick her in front of her home English crowd, and both of her UFC finishes came in London, scoring 111 and 110 points on DraftKings. Her first UFC win back in 2019 also came in London, where she scored 91 DraftKings points in a decision win over Priscila Cachoeira. The concern with McCann is that she’s gone 0-4 against grapplers in the UFC, but all of those grapplers were significantly more talented than Stoliarenko so you probably don’t want to get too hung up on that jarring stat. Stoliarenko has been finished in four of her seven pro losses and is now cutting down to 125 lb for the first time, which has the potential to further deteriorate her already suspect durability. However, McCann will need to be careful not to get taken down, which may limit her ability to let her hands go, especially early on when Stoliarenko is the most dangerous. McCann also would be wise not to look for takedowns, which is how she’s been able to score well in decisions in the past. That could make it tougher for McCann to return value as the third most expensive fighter on the card and it looks like she’ll need a well timed knockout to be useful. McCann has only been 11%, 15%, and 19% owned in her last three fights, and her expensive price tag should keep her lower owned here, which does add to her tournament appeal. The odds imply McCann has a 27% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 20% chance it comes in round one.
Stoliarenko is just 1-4 in the UFC and is a one-dimensional armbar specialist, with 9 of her 10 career wins coming by R1 armbar. She’s gone just 1-6-2 in fights that have made it past the first round and is now cutting down to 125 lb for the first time in her career and stepping into enemy territory. She’s not smart enough to sit in top control as she’ll give up position to go for armbars. That will make it tougher for her to grind out a decision on the mat, and she looks like a submission or bust play. Working in her favor, McCann has struggled against grapplers in the past, but those were actually really good grapplers and Stoliarenko is not on that level. Stoliarenko is nothing more than a submission or bust option here and if McCann falls for the telegraphed armbar here she might as well retire on the spot. The odds imply Stoliarenko has a 34% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Tom Aspinall
7th UFC Fight (5-1)When Aspinall steps inside the Octagon on Saturday, it will have been 364 days since he blew out his knee in the same O2 arena in front of his home crowd. That injury occurred just 15 seconds into the main event against Curtis Blaydes and the fight ended before it ever really got started so there’s nothing to really take away from it, but Aspinall did say that knee had been bothering him some since before he joined the UFC, so it wasn’t a completely knee injury. He’s since spent the last year working his way back after having surgery to repair a torn MCL and meniscus, in addition to a damaged ACL. That was Aspinall’s second straight time headlining a London card, after he submitted Alexander Volkov in the first round just four months earlier. That was Aspinall’s eighth straight win going back to a 2016 DQ loss, and he started his UFC career off with five straight finishes, with four of those ending in round one and the other 69 seconds into round two. He faced some really soft competition in his first few UFC fights, landing first round knockouts against Jake Collier and Alan Baudot, before submitting an aging Andrei Arlovski early in the second round. He then knocked out Serghei Spivac in the first round, followed by a first round submission of Volkov in his last fight. Other than Blaydes, who didn’t have time to attempt a takedown, the only grappler Aspinall has faced so far in the UFC was Spivac, who was unable to take Aspinall down on either of his two takedown attempts and failed to land a single strike in the brief match that ended in just 150 seconds.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Aspinall has nine wins by KO/TKO and three by submission. He’s never been to a decision or even seen the third round. Eleven of his 12 wins have come in round one, with his other ending 69 seconds into round two. While his last loss officially went down as a R1 TKO, both of his previous losses occurred in the second round, with the first of those coming in a 2015 heel hook in his fourth pro fight, and the other from a 2016 DQ for a downward elbow. After turning pro in 2014, Aspinall would likely have more MMA fights on his record, but he tried his hand at boxing in 2017. He later returned to MMA in 2019.
This will be the third five-round fight of Aspinall’s career, but neither of his previous two even made it to the four minute mark. He submitted Volkov in three minutes and 45 seconds and then suffered the knee injury in just 15 seconds. So we still don’t know what his cardio will look like in a longer fight. However, it’s never mattered in the past how long his fights have been scheduled to go as he’s never been in one that lasted longer than nine minutes.
Overall, Aspinall is most well known for his knockout ability, but he’s also a BJJ black belt who can always fall back on his grappling when he needs it. In his six UFC fights, he landed all four of his takedown attempts, while also defending both of the two takedowns against him. Nine of his 12 career wins came in 95 seconds or less and all 12 ended in the opening seven minutes of fights, so we’ve yet to see his cardio tested, but he’s obviously in better shape than your typical Heavyweight. At his massive size, his unique combination of speed, power, and grappling should have him in the title discussion sooner rather than later as long as he’s able to make a full recovery from his knee injury.
Marcin Tybura
18th UFC Fight (11-6)Coming off a pair of decision wins over Blagoy Ivanov and Alexander Romanov, Tybura has quietly won seven of his last eight fights, with his one loss over that stretch coming in a 2021 decision loss to Alexander Volkov. His last three and six of his last eight fights have gone the distance, with the two expectations being a pair of ground and pound TKOs against two cardiovascularly challenged one-dimensional strikers in Greg Hardy and Walt Harris in 2020 and 2021. Tybura went through a four fight stretch in 2018 to 2019 where he got knocked out three times, so his durability has been a concern for him in the past.
Now 24-7 as a pro, Tybura has nine wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and nine decision wins. While all of his recent finishes have come by TKO, his six submission wins all occurred earlier in his career from 2011 to 2014. He’s been knocked out four times himself and has three decision losses. Ten of his 17 UFC fights have gone the distance (7-3) with the other seven ending in KO/TKOs (4-3). Five of those seven finishes came in rounds two and three, with the two exceptions being a 2021 R1 KO win over Walt Harris and a 2019 R1 KO loss to Augusto Sakai
This will be the 7th five-round fight of Tybura’s career, and second in the UFC. His only other UFC five-round fight ended in a 2017 decision loss to Fabrício Werdum. In his five fights scheduled to go five-rounds before he joined the UFC, all of which took place from 2013 to 2015, Tybura notched three first round submissions and a first round knockout, while also getting knocked out once himself in the third round.
Overall, Tybura is a Heavyweight grappler and BJJ black belt. In his 17 UFC fights, he’s landed 20 takedowns on 59 attempts (34% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down by his opponents 7 times on 34 attempts (79.4% defense). Tybura lacks the striking ability to be competitive on the feet with anyone in the top of the Heavyweight division, but can hang against lower level strikers. With that said, he’s typically reliant on taking opponents down and beating them up with ground and pound to win fights and has landed at least one takedown in 9 of his last 10 UFC wins. He lost three of the last four fights where he failed to land a takedown.
Fight Prediction:
Aspinall will have a 2” height advantage, and is seven years younger than the 37-year-old Tybura, but both fighters share a 78” reach.
Tybura is basically a worse version of Curtis Blaydes, so it seems like the UFC is using him to ease Aspinall back into action following Aspinall’s knee injury against Blaydes. Tybura isn’t much of a knockout threat on the feet, and his path to victory will be to survive early and wear Aspinall down with his wrestling. While we haven’t seen Aspinall have to operate off his back in the UFC, he is a BJJ black belt just like Tybura, and has shown he can grapple. There’s always a chance Tybura can just lay on Aspinall if he gets him down, but we don’t expect Aspinall to look helpless on the mat unless he’s already gassed. If the UFC thought Tybura was going to be able to successfully execute a lay-and-pray game plan, it’s unlikely they would have put this fight together and it seems pretty obvious they’re setting up Aspinall to land an early knockout in front of his home crowd as he make his triumphant return from an injury almost that occurred exactly a year ago to the day in the same arena. Aspinall is the quicker fighter and the more powerful striker, and has also looked like more of a submission threat than Tybura. We like him to finish Tybura in the first two rounds, most likely by first round knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -175.
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DFS Implications:
Aspinall suffered an unfortunate knee injury in the opening seconds of his last fight that resulted in him scoring just a single point on DraftKings, but prior to that, he had been a scoring machine. All five of his UFC wins came in seven minutes or less, with four of those ending in round one. He averaged 110 DraftKings points in those five wins, with four scores of 103 or more. The only time he failed to top 100 points was in an early second round submission over Andrei Arlovski that scored “just” 95 points. However, he only topped 106 points once, which was when he scored 116 in a submission win over Volkov. So as the most expensive fighter on the card, there’s a real chance he could get priced out of tournament winning lineups even if he does finish Tybura early. We also don’t know what Aspinall’s cardio looks like, as he’s never been to a third round. That adds some uncertainty if he can’t get Tybura out of there in the opening two rounds. Nevertheless, we like Aspinall to finish Tybura before cardio even comes into play, at which point it will just be a matter of whether or not Aspinall can outscore the other high priced options by enough points to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Aspinall has a 79% chance to win, a 71% chance to land a finish, and a 42% chance it comes in round one.
Tybura’s DFS scoring has come back down to Earth lately as he’s faced stiffer competition. After landing a pair of ground and pound TKOs in 2020 and 2021 that were good for 100 and 112 DraftKings points respectively, he failed to top 64 DraftKings points in either of his recent two decision wins. He also scored just 30 points in his last decision loss and only managed to land one total takedown in his last three fights combined. Tybura has been knocked out four times in his career, and there’s a good chance that number gets extended to five here, but Aspinall is also a BJJ black belt and dangerous on the mat as well. So Tybura will be at risk of getting finished anywhere this fight goes, although he’s a BJJ black belt himself and has never been submitted. The most likely outcome is that Aspinall knocks Tybura out in the first two rounds, but if Tybura can extend this into the later rounds it could get interesting. As the cheapest fighter on the card, if Tybura pulls off the upset he’ll very likely end up in tournament winning lineups, unless we get a high scoring card with numerous underdogs winning. The odds imply Tybura has a 21% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
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