Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.
None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Joshua Van
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Van stepped into this matchup on just over three weeks’ notice and said he was sick with the flu for three weeks in December just before getting the call. He said during that time his weight dropped from his normal walk around weight of 138 lb to 129 lb and it sounded like he was in rough shape. Looking back to his last fight, Van won a high-volume decision over a debuting Kevin Borjas. It started out rough for Van in that one, as he lost the first round all three scorecards, but then unanimously won each of the later rounds. Van really cranked up the volume in those later rounds and after getting outlanded 23-20 in significant strikes in the opening five minutes, Van finished the fight ahead 156-75. Just before that, Van also started slow in his UFC debut against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, where Van again dropped the first round but won each of the later rounds. Van finished that fight ahead 120-103 in significant strikes. While both of Van’s UFC fights went the distance, all eight of his regional fights ended early (7-1) with Fury FC. He won the Fury FC Flyweight belt in the last of those fights with a second round submission.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Van has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. All seven of his finishes came in the first two rounds, with two in round one, and five in round two. His last three finishes all occurred in the second round. He was also submitted in the second round in his lone loss, which occurred in 2021 in his third pro fight. He faced a lot of questionable competition before joining the UFC, with only two of his opponents coming in with more than two pro wins.
Overall, Van is a 22-year-old Burmese kickboxer who says he only started training a few years ago, and only turned pro in October 2021. That shows in his wrestling, which is a work in progress, but he’s already made a lot of improvements to his takedown defense. In his two UFC fights, his opponents were only able to get him down on 1 of their 8 attempts (87.5% defense), but he also hasn’t faced any good grapplers yet. On the other side of things, Van landed two of his six takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), showing some improvements to his offensive wrestling as well. Van has shown some ability to look for submissions when the opportunities present themselves, but he generally relies on his striking. Van doesn't cut much weight and isn’t a very big Flyweight, but that also allows him to stay active and take fights on short notice.
Felipe Bunes
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Bunes had been scheduled to fight Denys Bondar here, but Bondar dropped out and Van was announced as the replacement on December 22nd.
Once again attempting to make his UFC debut, Bunes had originally been scheduled to fight Zhalgas Zhumagulov last June, but Bunes ended up being pulled from the card after he failed a drug test and was suspended for six months. It’s now been just over a year since his last fight, when he won the vacant LFA Flyweight belt in a first round knockout in January 2023. However, he has been competing in some grappling competitions since then to try and stay active. Bunes’ second most recent fight ended in a split-decision where he was able to control his opponent on the mat for half the fight, after he got submitted by former UFC fighter Jussier Formiga just before that.
Now 13-6 as a pro, Bunes has two wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, two decision wins, and one DQ victory. All but one of his submission wins have been by armbar, which he’ll set up from a variety of positions. Eight of his 10 early victories occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice and has four decision losses.
Overall, Bunes has pretty good size and length for the Flyweight division, as he stands 5’7” with a 69” reach. He’s already 34 years old, which is pretty ancient to be making your debut at the weight class. That means he doesn't have any extra time to figure things out and he needs to hit the ground running if he wants to make any noise in the UFC. He’s a well-rounded BJJ black belt with a good ground game and decent striking, although he can be a little patient on the feet at times and is sporadic with his grappling. That can help to explain why he’s lost two-thirds of the decisions he’s been to. He throws a nice spinning wheel kick that opponents need to be aware of, as he lands it with good accuracy. He also looks for a lot of armbars and is a threat to throw up submissions off his back or even go for an occasional flying triangle. It will be interesting to see how he looks in his debut after a year away from MMA, but he definitely has the potential to win some fights at the UFC level.
Fight Prediction:
Bunes will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. Van is 12 years younger than the 34-year-old Bunes.
Bunes clearly has a grappling advantage in this matchup so it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to look for a takedown. Van is a really solid striker and appears to be improving all the time, but he did take this fight on relatively short notice after being really sick for a few weeks, so the circumstances surrounding his preparation were not ideal. He faced a pure striker in his last match and this will be the first real grappler he’s faced in the UFC and could be the toughest test of his career. However, there’s also some uncertainty on Bunes’ side of things, as he comes off a suspension for a failed drug test and hasn’t fought in a year. So this is a somewhat volatile fight on both sides. Van lands way more striking volume than Bunes, so Bunes will either need a finish or a dominant grappling performance to pull off the upset, both of which are possible. Most of his finishes have come via armbar early on in fights, and with Van still being pretty green when it comes to grappling, that appears to be Bunes’ most likely path to victory. However, Van has improved his defensive wrestling, and Bunes has also been content with keeping fights standing a lot of the time. That makes it tougher to trust Bunes to come in with a grappling-heavy gameplan and we like Van’s chances of pulling away through sheer output on the feet the longer the fight goes. So while we see some paths to victory for Bunes, Van by decision will still be our pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Van/Bunes FGTD” at +140.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Van put up impressive striking totals in each of his UFC fights, both of which ended in decision wins. He landed 120 significant strikes in his UFC debut, scoring 80 DraftKings points, and then topped that by landing 156 significant strikes in his last match. With the help of two takedowns landed, he was able to score 106 DratKings points in that win, but keep in mind it was against a one-dimensional striker who was all for throwing down on the feet. Now Van will face a BJJ black belt who at least theoretically should be looking to force him to grapple. Bunes is also tall and long and uses a lot of kicks so he could try to stay on the outside when things are standing, which could also slow the pace. That will make it tougher for Van to out up another monster striking total and he’ll likely need a finish if he wants to return value at his high price tag. With that in mind, Bunes has never been knocked out in his career, so we’re not especially excited about playing Van in this spot. The odds imply Van has a 69% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Bunes is an interesting tournament underdog play based on his grappling advantage in this matchup. However, it’s important to keep in mind that he’s more of a grappler than a wrestler and he’s been somewhat sporadic with his takedowns. WIth that said, we have seen him control fights on the mat and he also has eight submission wins on his record, with seven of those coming by armbar. So he has grappling upside, even if you never know when he’s going to show it. He also has decent power and good size for the Flyweight division, however, he doesn’t throw a ton of striking volume. That lack of output is a large part of why he’s gone just 2-4 in the six decisions he’s been to and most of his wins have ended early. That leaves Bunes reliant on either landing a finish or dominating the fight on the ground to win and also to score well. The fact that he hasn’t fought in a year and is coming off a six month suspension for a failed drug test also adds some uncertainty to the mix. The odds imply Bunes has a 31% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Tom Nolan
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a first round knockout win on DWCS, the 23-year-old Nolan remains undefeated in his short career, after turning pro in December 2020. He impressively landed a pair of knockdowns in his recent DWCS violent knockout win, despite the fight only lasting 83 seconds. The only real adversity we’ve seen Nolan face in his career was self inflicted when he landed an illegal knee in his second most recent win. However, after being deducted a point the fight was allowed to continue and he finished his opponent almost immediately after action resumed. Prior to going on DWCS, Nolan had four fights with the Eternal MMA Australian promotion, which has produced fighters like Jack Della Maddalena, Steve Erceg, Jack Jenkins, and Casey O’Neill.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Nolan has four wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. After his first two pro fights both went the distance, he finished his last four opponents in the first two rounds, including three in round one. Nolan hasn’t fought much in the way of competition, so take his record with a grain of salt and he’s still largely unproven. Despite being 6’3”, Nolan actually competed down at 145 lb as an amateur, before moving up to 155 lb when he turned pro. He said that he could still make 145 lb if he had to but he thinks he’ll have more longevity at 155 lb and it’s a healthier weight class for him.
Overall, Nolan is an aggressive Australian fighter with massive size for the 155 lb division. He’s a BJJ brown belt and has the ability to fight from distance, out of the clinch, or on the mat, and seems pretty well rounded. He throws good elbows from up close and a variety of kicks and punches from distance, which make him a tough fighter to deal with. He’s the same height as Jalin Turner, although doesn’t have quite as long of a reach. With all of the physical tools to be successful, Nolan just needs to continue to refine his techniques and he could become a real problem in the division. He’s still so early in his career that there will surely be some growing pains along the way once he faces a higher level of competition, but the UFC seems to be giving him a teed up matchup for another highlight reel knockout in his debut.
Nikolas Motta
5th UFC Fight (1-2, NC)Motta may have thought referee Mike Beltran screwed him with a premature stoppage in his last fight, but in reality, he saved his job. Motta was seconds away from getting submitted, or at the very least losing a 30-27 decision even if he did somehow survive, when Beltran idiotically stopped the fight prematurely. Motta was so close to being out, but he wasn’t quite there yet and Beltran’s mistake resulted in a No Contest that completely robbed Trey Ogden of the dominant victory that he had clearly earned on the final fight of his deal. Motta was also fighting for a new contract as he sat on a 1-2 UFC record and would have surely been cut had the fight been allowed to finish. Ogden finished ahead 58-14 in significant strikes and 96-16 in total strikes, while also landing three takedowns with four and a half minutes of control time. It was one of the more brutal beats you could have received as an Ogden backer, who came into the fight as a slight underdog. Now Motta will have a second shot at keeping his job, but nothing he did in that matchup is encouraging for his chances of capitalizing on it. Just before that No Contest, Motta was violently knocked out in the first round by Manuel Torres, who landed one of the cleanest step-in elbows you’ll ever see. Prior to that, Motta notched his only UFC win in a first round knockout against an absolutely terrible Cameron VanCamp, who was knocked out in the first round in both of his UFC fights. Leading up to that win, Motta got knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut against Jim Miller after winning a decision on DWCS to punch his ticket to the big show. Following his win on DWCS, Motta had been scheduled to make his UFC debut at three different points but all three matches got canceled and he ended up having to sit on the sidelines for 15 months. Motta went on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil back in 2015 when he was just 22 years old, but was submitted in the second round of his second fight and was relegated back to the regional scene. Not counting his recent No Contest, 8 of Motta’s last 10 fights ended in knockouts (4-4), with the other two going the distance (2-0).
Now 13-5 plus a No Contest as a pro, Motta has nine wins by KO/TKO and four decisions. Seven of those knockouts ended in round one, one ended in round two, and the other came in round three. He’s notably the only fighter to ever finish Joe Solecki, which he did in the third round back in 2018. Motta has been finished in all five of his losses, with the last four of those ending in knockouts after he was submitted in the first defeat of his career. All five of those losses ended in under seven minutes, with three of his last four losses ending in under three minutes. After starting his pro career at 145 lb when he was just 18 years old, Motta moved up to 155 lb in 2015 when he went on TUF Brazil and never looked back. He also had a submission loss on TUF that doesn’t show up on his official record since those fights count as exhibition matches.
Overall, Motta is a one-dimensional striker who has decent power in his strikes but is very hittable (4.61 SSA/min) and has a suspect chin. He attempted zero takedowns in his four UFC fights or on DWCS, while those five opponents combined to get him down on 3 of their 17 attempts. All but one of those attempts came from Trey Ogden who has just a 16% career takedown accuracy, which was actually only 14% before he landed 3 of his 16 attempts against Motta. Despite offering nothing in terms of grappling, Motta only averages 2.65 SSL/min and he’s generally pretty patient with his striking as he relies more on damage than volume in his fights. At just 5’9” he’s not a very big guy and we’ve seen him struggle to find his range at times, which was clear in his last fight against Ogden, who’s more known for his grappling but still dominated Motta on the feet. This will likely be the last time we see Motta in the UFC if he doesn’t pull off the upset.
Fight Prediction:
Nolan will have a 6” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while also being seven years younger than the 30-year-old Motta.
This is a tale of two fighters as we have one giant Lightweight on his way into the UFC and his much smaller opponent on the way out. The UFC is clearly using Motta as a stepping stone for Nolan to make a name for himself and if Motta is known for anything, it’s getting violently knocked out. Nolan is bigger, stronger, faster, longer, more durable, more aggressive, and a better grappler than Motta. The only advantage Motta has is experience, but he wears that on his chin like a safety stop on a table saw. It doesn’t take a whole lot to find his kill switch and Nolan should be able to make short work of him. Sure, Motta theoretically has enough power to land a hail mary knockout, but we would be shocked to see him pull off the upset here and we like Nolan to knock him out in the opening three minutes of the fight and send him back to the regional scene, if not into retirement.
Our favorite bet here is “Tom Nolan R1 KO” at +115.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Nolan comes into the UFC with a massive amount of DFS scoring potential and gets a dream matchup right off the bat to show it. He’s massive at 6’3” and is tied with Jalin Turner among others for the tallest Lightweight in the organization. Nolan is a very aggressive striker but will also mix in takedowns and look for front chokes and violent ground and pound. He pushes a hellacious pace that allows him to put up huge striking totals in short amounts of time and he’s got DFS scoring explosion written all over him. He is still very young at just 23 years old and had to fly around the world from Australia for this fight, but as long as he doesn’t go into a coma from the Octagon jitters then he should be just fine. He’ll be making his debut in the same venue that he just fought in for DWCS, which should help him to feel more comfortable as he makes the walk for the first time. It’s no secret that this is a great matchup for him and the books fully expect him to knock Motta out. So even people that have never heard of him will know he’s a good play, which will result in him being popular. That’s the only knock we see on him in tournaments, but he’s a great play regardless and should land a quick knockout and put up a huge score. His recent win on DWCS would have been good for 117 DraftKings points and 132 points on FanDuel. The odds imply Nolan has a 74% chance to win, a 67% chance to land a finish, and a 45% chance it comes in round one.
Motta is a one-dimensional boxer with a suspect chin and his first three UFC fights all ended in knockouts in under a round and a half, with him losing two of those. He was then moments away from either getting submitted or losing a lopsided decision in his last match, but got bailed out by Mike Beltran who must have really had to take a shit or something because he couldn’t wait a few more seconds before stopping the fight. That resulted in a No Contest and Motta gets to fight one more time instead of being cut because of that. Motta’s lone UFC win was a first round knockout of a terrible Cameron VanCamp, where Motta scored 110 DraftKings points. In each of his two losses, Motta scored single digit Draftkings points and his lack of durability leaves him with a non-existent scoring floor. And even in his last fight that made it deep into the third round, Motta amazingly scored just SIX DraftKings points as he was outclassed on the feet by a grappler in Trey Ogden. Motta’s three losses before joining the UFC also all ended early, so this has always been a fundamental flaw of his. While he has decent power in his hands and a history of landing knockouts, he’s underwhelmed since joining the UFC and hasn’t looked especially dangerous. Now he’ll face a much taller undefeated fighter who will be looking to test his chin early and often and this looks like a really tough matchup for Motta. He’s nothing more than a hail mary KO or bust option and the only reason to consider playing him is his low ownership or as a hedge for Nolan in case we get some sort of freak injury or DQ. The odds imply Motta has a 26% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Jean Silva
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a decision win on DWCS, Silva has won eight straight fights and finished seven straight opponents in the first round leading up to his recent decision victory. However, he had also been facing a lot of dubious competition on the Brazilian regional scene so take his finishing streak with a grain of salt. His last win before going on DWCS was against a 9-9 opponent, after he defeated an opponent who only had four pro fights. Silva has also been fighting in a bunch of random promotions, including one that used a bizarre cage/ring hybrid with alternating sections of ropes and cage.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Silva has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision win. Eight of his 10 finishes ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. He’s never been finished himself, with both of his losses going the distance in his first five pro fights. Silva competed some down at 135 lb early in his career before moving up to 145 lb in 2017.
Overall, Silva is an aggressive weirdo who’s somewhat well rounded although doesn’t stand out anywhere. He loves looking for guillotines, but doesn’t appear to be a great wrestler or grappler and relies on sheer aggression in the striking exchanges. He described himself as “the most aggressive fighter in the world” and he appears more focussed on living up to that self-imposed title opposed to actually refining his skill set. He will unload on his opponents with a barrage of strikes, but seems kind of sloppy with his approach. He trains with the Fighting Nerds team, a team we’re still not sold on despite Caio Borralho’s success in the UFC. There are a lot of other small things that we don’t like about Silva and despite coming into his UFC debut as the biggest favorite on the card, he’s on full fraud alert.
Westin Wilson
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Wilson had been scheduled to fight Gabriel Santos here, but Santos dropped out and Silva was announced as the replacement on December 13th with a month to prepare.
In his recent UFC debut, Wilson hung onto a kneebar attempt for too long, which resulted in him getting violently knocked out by Joanderson Brito. When recently asked about what he learned from his debut, Wilson responded that by having a shot at the kneebar that he realized he belonged and could hang with these guys. So clearly he learned nothing. He also made excuses about Brito grabbing the fence, while never acknowledging that he should have let go of the kneebar before he became unconscious. In fairness to him, he probably doesn’t actually remember what happened. He also did take that fight on short notice, which is the only real excuse he has. Wilson is on the short list of fighters who have lost via Gogoplata and simply being allowed to remain on the UFC roster could be a lawsuit waiting to happen. He was given an opportunity in the UFC simply because of his connection with Stephen Thompson, and Wilson had been fighting a bunch of low-level opponents before joining the big show. His last 12 fights all ended in the first round (9-3) and he’s only been to two decisions in 24 pro bouts. Just before making his UFC debut, he landed three straight first round submission wins, after getting folded like a cheap lawn chair in the first round of a July 2022 match. Now 16-8 as a pro, Wilson has five wins by KO/TKO and 11 submission victories. He’s also been knocked out twice, submitted four times, and lost both of the decisions he’s been to (2015 & 2019). Five of his six early losses ended in round one, with the other ending in round two. Nineteen of his last 20 fights ended early and 19 of his 24 pro fights ended in the first round, with three more ending in round two. The last time he won a fight that made it out of the first round was in 2017 and he’s never won a match that made it past the 6:04 mark. Wilson has fought anywhere from 135 lb to 175 lb, but most of his fights have been around 145 lb.
Overall, Wilson is an ultra low-level fighter with an alarmingly poor striking defense, but he is a BJJ brown belt and has shown some ability to look for submissions. He trains with Stephen Thompson so his striking should theoretically be improving, but he also has a full-time job in the software field and fighting is basically a hobby for him. Similar to Thompson, Wilson has a karate style stance, but still relies mostly on his grappling to win matches. He’s talked about how he would actually trade his software services with fighting promotions to get himself on cards, which sounds like a death wish. He’s already 34 years old and likely is who he is at this stage in his career. He does have good size for the 145 lb weight class as he stands 6’1”, but that probably speaks more to how scrawny he is. We’d be surprised if the UFC (or his family) even let him fight out his contract and any fight could be Wilson’s last.
Fight Prediction:
Wilson will have a 6” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while also being seven years older than the 27-year-old Silva.
We’re not convinced that Silva is actually good, but Wilson may be the worst guy on the UFC roster and just as there are levels to this game at the top, there are also levels at the bottom. Neither of these two are especially technical on the feet, but Silva’s pure aggression should be all he needs to give Wilson more than he can handle. Wilson’s striking defense is so bad there’s a good chance he gets knocked out cold, but if he doesn’t, the pressure of Silva will force Wilson to look to grapple. Silva loves looking for guillotines and we expect him to welcome Wilson’s takedown attempt by jumping guillotine if the fight makes it that far. Wilson will need to both avoid getting knocked out and avoid getting guillotined if he wants to have any chance of looking for a submission of his own and despite our reservations on Silva, this appears to be a perilous matchup for Wilson with multiple ways he gets finished. While we don’t trust Wilson’s chin at all, we’ll say he doesn’t get put completely out from the strikes of Silva and ends up shooting for a desperation takedown and losing via guillotine in the first round.
Our favorite bet here is “Silva/Wilson Fight Ends in SUB” at +300.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Silva’s aggressive nature will help to push the pace in his fights, which is generally what we want to see in DFS. It’s also encouraging that 10 of his 11 wins ended early and he landed seven straight first round finishes leading up to his recent decision victory on DWCS. And now he’s facing a terrible opponent who was finished in six of his eight pro losses and has no business being in the UFC. While we’re not sold on Silva finding longterm UFC success, this is the easiest matchup he could ask for and sets up well for him to find a quick finish. However, he loves looking for guillotines and as the most expensive fighter on the card, that creates a clear path for him to land a first round finish and still not score enough to be useful. And considering Wilson is a grappler, there’s always a chance he could get Silva down and control him for a period of time, which would also make it tougher for Silva to score well. So for Silva to return value, he’ll likely need a first round finish that includes a knockdown and even then he’ll still need to outscore the other high priced options. There’s still a decent chance he accomplishes that, just be aware there are multiple paths for him to not score enough to be useful, despite the stacked odds and dream matchup. And if SIlva does put up a huge score, that will just make the impending fade in his next match even more profitable. You’ll still want to have some exposure based on his high scoring floor and ceiling, but being underweight on him may be the difference between doing well in tournaments and taking something down. The odds imply Silva has an 88% chance to win, a 78% chance to land a finish, and a 55% chance it comes in round one.
Wilson is probably the worst fighter on the UFC roster and was violently reminded of that in his recent UFC debut when he got knocked out by Joanderson Brito in less than three minutes. Fighting is basically a hobby for Wilson, and it clearly shows on the tape. His non-existent striking defense always leaves him open to being knocked out and while he prides himself as being a decent grappler, he’s also been submitted four times. So pick your poison with how you want to finish him because everything’s in play. While he does have 16 pro wins and a 100% finishing rate, he was fighting an extremely low level of competition on the regional scene and his record is completely fraudulent. His only hope of ever winning a UFC fight will be to land a hail mary submission and the chances of that happening are extremely low. Wilson is the biggest underdog on the card and Silva has one of the highest ITD lines we’ve seen in a while with only Bo Nickal topping it in recent years. That leaves Wilson with a non-existent floor and the only two things he has going for him are his incredibly low ownership and the fact that Silva may also be a fraud. Play Wilson at your own risk if you want to get crazy in tournaments, but don’t be surprised when he scores single digit points. The odds imply Wilson has a 12% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Farid Basharat
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Keeping his undefeated record intact, Basharat is coming off a first round submission win over Kleydson Rodrigues, who was moving up to 135 lb for the first time after missing weight by three pounds for his previous 125 lb fight. Just before that, Basharat won a decision in his UFC debut against a dangerous grappler in Da'Mon Blackshear. Just before making his UFC debut, Basharat dominated in a decision win on DWCS, where he finished ahead in significant strikes 116-27, in total strikes 163-39, in takedowns 3-0, and in control time 9:05-0:00. While Basharat landed a first round finish in his last outing, his previous six fights all made it to the second round, with four of those seeing round three, and three going the distance. His last four early wins all ended in submissions, with three of those finishes occurring in the later rounds.
Now 11-0 as a pro, Basharat has one knockout win (R1 2019), six submissions, and four decision victories. Five of his six submission wins ended in rear-naked chokes, with the other in an arm-triangle choke. Four of those six ended in the later rounds, with two in round two and two in round three.
Overall, Basharat is a really solid fighter, just like his brother Javid. He has a Taekwondo background and is also a really solid grappler, with a great takedown defense and heavy top pressure. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Basharat landed 8 of his 15 takedown attempts (53.3% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 1 of their 6 attempts (83.3% defense). He landed at least two takedowns in all three of those fights. He’s quick on his feet, counters well, and is overall really well rounded. He’s trained with lots of big names and everyone has nothing but good things to say about the pair of Basharat brothers. Farid looks a little more aggressive than his brother Javid, but both guys fight smart and rarely put themselves in bad situations. Farid trains in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture, so he won’t have to travel for this card, which is always a plus.
Taylor Lapilus
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Lapilus recently made his return to the UFC in front of his home Paris crowd. Lapilus squeaked out a close 29-28 decision win over a UFC newcomer in Caolan Loughran, after both of their matchups got shuffled midweek, leaving neither guy with much time to prepare for the other. Lapilus spent much of the fight defending takedowns along the fence and Loughran was only able to land 2 of his 11 takedown attempts. Lapilus originally went 3-1 with the UFC from 2015 to 2016, but then wasn’t re-signed despite his winning record. He won a decision in his 2015 UFC debut, and then landed a second round TKO, before losing a decision in his third fight. He bounced back with a decision win in 2016, but then left the UFC and tried his hand at boxing for one fight, where he won a 2017 decision. He returned to MMA after that and then spent the next six years on the regional scene working his way back to the big show. They actually decided to bring him back for the previous Paris card, but he was forced to withdraw due to hand injury and then didn’t compete for 17 months before his last fight, after winning the vacant Ares FC Bantamweight belt in April 2022. None of Lapilus’ three UFC wins aged well, so it’s worth pointing out the context. His first win was against Rocky Lee, who had three pro fights at the time, was making his UFC debut, got cut following the loss, and has since gone 1-5. Then Lapilus defeated Yuta Sasaki, who finished 4-5 in the UFC and dropped down to Flyweight after the loss to Lapilus. Finally, Lapilus defeated Leandro Issa, who went 2-2 in the UFC and was cut following the loss to Lapilus. And then Lapilus’ last win with Ares before he rejoined the UFC came against an opponent who hadn’t competed in five years following a PED suspension. He then fought a UFC newcomer in his last fight and barely won, so his strength of schedule hasn’t been especially impressive.
Now 19-3 as a pro, Lapilus has four wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and nine decision victories. All six of his submission wins occurred in his first nine pro fights, from 2012 to 2014, while three of his four knockouts victories occurred in his last eight matches. However, three of his last four and five of his last seven fights ended with the judges. He’s never been finished and all three of his losses went the distance. Lapilus started his career at 145 lb, but dropped down to 135 lb following his 2015 UFC debut.
Overall, Lapilus is a French striker who hasn’t shown much of a ground game, but does have a pretty good takedown defense, even if he has been taken down at least once in each of his five UFC fights. He has good quickness and movement, but doesn’t offer much in the way of power or in terms of wrestling, and also hasn’t submitted anybody since 2014. He has shown the ability to quickly return to his feet when he’s been taken down along the cage, but has looked pretty helpless off his back out in space. In his five UFC fights, Lapilus landed two of his five takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 8 of their 43 attempts (81.4% defense). All of his UFC fights have been lower volume affairs and he’s never landed more than 84 significant strikes in a fight or absorbed more than 48. Lapilus previously trained at the MMA Factory in Paris but has since moved to a new gym, Cross Fight Paris.
Fight Prediction:
Basharat will have a 2” height advantage, but Lapilus will have a 2” reach advantage. Basharat is five years younger than the 31-year-old Lapilus.
We’ve never been very impressed by Lapilus and he tends to slow fights down and not make things very exciting. We expect him to be on the defense once again here, as Basharat should be the one pushing forward and looking to get things to the mat. While Lapilus has never been finished in his career, he also hasn’t faced the best competition and this looks like the toughest test of his career. Lapilus’ takedown defense has been decent, but also far from impenetrable and all five of his UFC opponents got him down at least once. And while he’s never been submitted, he’s looked pretty bad off his back. The smaller cage at the Apex should help Basharat track Lapilus down and Basharat will have a good shot at becoming the first fighter to ever submit Lapilus, or at the very least grind out a decision win, which is what the books are expecting will happen. While we can definitely see a scenario where Lapilus is able to survive for 15 minutes to lose a decision, we actually like Basharat to submit him in the later rounds and hand him the first early loss of his career.
Our favorite bet here is “Farid Basharat R2 or R3 SUB” at +900.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Basharat is coming off a first round submission win that was good for 112 DraftKings points, after he scored 82 points in a decision win in his debut. That decision victory notably came against a grappler in Da'Mon Blackshear, who possessed the skills to hang with Basharat on the mat. However, Basharat then took on a striker most recently and showed how dangerous he can be when facing someone with less grappling experience. Basharat will be facing another striker here, so this looks like another spot where he should be able to push for a finish if he can get Lapilus down. And while Lapilus has a solid 81% takedown defense, all five of his UFC opponents got him down at least once. He has done a decent job of returning to his feet when he’s been taken down, but he also hasn’t been facing any elite grapplers and he may have a tougher time escaping here. And even if he does get back up, that could just present more opportunities for Basharat to string takedowns together and potentially score well even in a decision, at least on DraftKings. He’s more reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel, unless he puts up a huge takedown total. The fact that Lapilus has never been finished will scare some people off Basharat, but that just adds to Basharat’s tournament appeal. However, Lapilus has shown a knack for ruining fights, which is obviously concerning and widens Basharat’s range of potential scoring outcomes. The odds imply Basharat has a 70% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Lapilus has averaged just 78 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with three of those ending in lower scoring decisions. His only UFC finish was all the way back in 2015 against a struggling opponent. Now he’s facing the toughest test of his career against an opponent who will be looking to take him down and submit him. That will make it really tough for Lapilus to get his own offense going and even at his cheap price tag he’s unlikely to even score enough to serve as a value play in an unlikely decision win. That leaves him as a hail mary KO or bust option and the only thing he has going for him in tournaments is his low ownership. The odds imply Lapilus has a 30% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Marcus McGhee
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)This is actually the second time that these two have been booked to face one another. They were originally scheduled to fight back in August, but Bolanos dropped out and McGhee ended up facing a fragile JP Buys instead. McGhee easily knocked Buys out the same way that almost everyone else has in the first round. Prior to that, McGhee made his short notice UFC debut against Journey Newson and pulled off the upset in a second round submission after dropping Newson with a straight left hand. That was the first time McGhee had ever submitted anybody and the only time Newson has ever been submitted. Just before that, McGhee landed a pair of third round TKOs, after getting submitted in the first round of an LFA fight. McGhee only turned pro in 2020, but he has yet to require the judges in any of his nine pro fights.
Now 8-1 as a pro, McGhee has seven wins by KO/TKO and one by submission. He has three first round knockouts, three more in round two, and one in round three, while his lone submission win ended in round two. Three of his last four finishes occurred in the later rounds. He was submitted in the first round of his only loss and he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 11 minutes, with eight of his nine fights ending in the first two rounds. Most of his career has been spent at 135 lb, but he did have one fight at 145 lb and two more at 140 lb Catchweights, including his UFC debut. He then returned to 135 lb for his last fight, where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, McGhee is an aggressive brawler who hasn’t shown much in the way of grappling other than his opportunistic submission win in his UFC debut. He’s a sparring partner of Sean O’Malley and Mario Bautista at the MMA Lab in Arizona, so he’s got a lot of good 135 lb fighters to train with. McGhee has shown the ability to stitch together lengthy boxing combinations, but is still very green overall and looks like a liability on the mat. However, he’s done a decent job of defending takedowns and is dangerous on the feet. Despite only turning pro in 2020, McGhee is already 33 years old and got a late start in MMA. McGhee has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC and we only saw him attempt one in his previous five fights on the regional scene. However, he was able to defend all seven of the attempts against him in his first two UFC fights.
Gaston Bolanos
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Bolanos is coming off an April 2023 decision win in his UFC debut against a terrible Aaron Phillips and even Phillips was able to take Bolanos down three times and control him for six minutes. For context, Phillips came into that matchup 0-3 in the UFC and had never landed a takedown on just one attempt, while getting absolutely dominated on the mat in all three of his previous fights. However, Bolanos outlanded Phillips 63-17 in significant strikes and still did enough in the striking exchanges to win the fight. Prior to that, Bolanos had spent his entire MMA career with Bellator, but had only competed once in the previous 38 months, which was when he landed a first round knockout in April 2022, a year to the day before he made his UFC debut. Bolanos didn’t compete at all in 2021, after losing back-to-back fights in 2019 and 2020 by submission and split decision respectively. Leading up to the pair of losses, Bolanos had knocked out four straight opponents after getting submitted in the second round of his second pro MMA fight back in 2017. While Bolanos only has 10 MMA fights on his record, he had an extensive 50+ fight Muay Thai career before that, where he won a world championship.
Now 7-3 as a pro, Bolanos has six KO/TKO wins and one decision victory. Five of his knockouts ended in round one with the other coming in round two. He’s never been knocked out himself, but he has been submitted twice and lost a split decision after getting taken down repeatedly and controlled in his first trip to the judges. Bolanos fought at 145 lb for his entire career, before dropping down to 135 lb for the first time in his recent UFC debut.
Overall, Bolanos is a one-dimensional Muay Thai striker who has no grappling game whatsoever. He loves to throw spinning back elbows, probably a little too much, but is definitely dangerous with the technique. He’s got good power in his strikes, but his lack of grappling will be his downfall in the UFC. In his recent UFC debut, Bolanos got taken down by a guy with terrible grappling three times on five attempts (40% defense). We also saw Bolanos get taken down seven times in a 2020 decision loss with Bellator. While the UFC is showing Bolanos mercy with the matchups they’re giving him, he’ll continue to turn strikers into grapplers based on how helpless he is on the mat.
Fight Prediction:
McGhee will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach. McGhee is two years older than the 31-year-old Bolanos.
Bolanos’ grappling is so bad that everyone he faces should be looking to put him on his back. The only problem here is that McGhee has only attempted one takedown in his last seven fights combined and also isn’t a good grappler. The opportunistic submission he landed in his UFC debut may confuse people into thinking he can grapple, but that fight only ended up on the mat because McGhee dropped Journey Newson with a big left hand and then Newson rolled over and completely gave up his back while not fighting the hands. You could not have asked for an easier rear-naked choke opportunity. So in reality, McGhee is not equipped to capitalize on Bolanos’ non-existent ground game. Although in fairness, neither was Aaron Phillipsd and he still took Bolanos down three times. Nevertheless, we expect this to play out as more of a striking battle, which is exactly what Bolanos needs to have success. He’s a former Muay Thai world champion and spent his entire career at 145 lb before dropping down to 135 lb for his last match. The cut appeared to go smoothly and now that he’s already done the weight cut once, it could go even better for him this time around. All but one of his career wins ended in knockouts in a round and a half or less, with five in the first round. And while McGhee has never been knocked out in his career, he’s exclusively fought against a very low level of competition. So Bolanos is very live to both pull off the upset and find a finish, although we don’t know just how durable McGhee is given how little he’s been tested. It’s possible that McGhee has made major improvements to his wrestling the same way his teammate Mario Bautista did, but he needs to show it before we’ll start making any assumptions. Give us the more seasoned striker in Bolanos to pull off the upset in either a knockout or a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Gaston Bolanos DEC” at +650.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
McGhee is an aggressive brawler with a 100% finishing rate, but is probably being overvalued right now after beating a pair of terrible opponents in his first two UFC fights. He doesn’t appear equipped to compete against legitimate grapplers at UFC-level, but fortunately for him he hasn’t been tested on the mat yet and will now face a one-dimensional striker. It will be interesting to see how McGhee’s striking holds up against a former Muay Thai world champion in Bolanos, but in fairness, we have seen some pretty suspect Muay Thai “world champions” in the past. And while McGhee has only landed one total takedown across his last seven fights, the MMA Lab was able to do wonders for Mario Bautista’s grappling game, so maybe they can do the same for McGhee. However, we’ll need to see it to believe it and he looked lost on the mat when he was fighting on the regional scene. Neither of these two fighters have ever been knocked out, so it won’t be surprising if McGhee makes it to the judges for the first time in his career here. We don’t see him returning value at his high price tag in that scenario, so he looks dependent on landing a finish. The odds imply McGhee has a 66% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Bolanos is extremely matchup dependent, as he’s a solid striker, but a terrible grappler. We saw him get taken down three times and controlled in his recent UFC debut against an 0-3 opponent who had never landed a takedown previously in the UFC and had actually been dominated on the mat himself in all of his previous three UFC fights. That shows just how bad Bolanos is on the ground, but now he’s facing a fellow striker who has only landed one total takedown in his last seven fights. Maybe Bolanos can turn another striker into a grappler based on the opportunity presented, but at least on paper this looks like a striking battle. That’s encouraging for Bolanos’ chances and he has far more striking experience than McGhee. Six of Bolanos’ seven MMA wins have ended in knockouts in under seven minutes, so clearly he has solid upside. And while McGhee has never been knocked out, he also hasn’t faced any dangerous strikers, so we really don’t know how good his chin is. That leaves enough uncertainty that Bolanos is a solid tournament option based on his upside alone. However, he does look like a KO or bust option and he doesn’t land enough striking volume to score well in a decision. Supporting that notion, he only scored 64 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, although he did get controlled for six minutes in that match. The odds imply Bolanos has a 34% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Matthew Semelsberger
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Stepping into this fight on three and a half weeks’ notice, Semelsberger filled in after Bassil Hafez dropped out. Semelsberger has lost two straight and three of his last four matches, so he’s desperate for a win and taking a fight on short notice in that situation is always risky. The most recent of those losses came against Uros Medic, who stepped in on a few weeks’ notice and was moving up from 155 lb to 170 lb for the first time in the UFC. Semelsberger started strong in that fight, dropping Medic in the first round, but he was unable to put him away and then the elevation appeared to zap Semelsberger’s cardio down the stretch and Medic finished him with a third round TKO with the help of a quick stoppage by the ref. Just before that, Semelsberger nearly landed an immediate knockout in the opening seconds against Jeremiah Wells, but again was unable to close the show. Wells was able to lean on his wrestling every time Semelsberger had him hurt and despite Semelsberger landing two knockdowns, Wells won a split decision on the back of six takedowns and 11 minutes of control time. Leading up to those two losses, Semelsberger won a decision over Jake Matthews, who Semelsberger somehow knocked down three times, but again couldn’t put away. That came just after Semelsberger lost a decision to Alex Morono, in yet another fight where Semelsberger landed a knockdown but couldn’t find a finish. Amazingly, Semelsberger landed SEVEN knockdowns in his last four fights, but still went just 1-3 over that stretch. That came after he started his UFC career off 4-1. While he’s totalled 10 knockdowns in nine UFC fights, six of those fights went the distance (3-3), with the other three ending in knockouts (2-1). Semelsberger’s two knockouts in the UFC both came in the opening 16 seconds of fights against a pair of fragile foes in Martin Sano and Jason Witt.
Now 11-6 as a pro, Semelsberger has six knockouts, one submission, and four decision wins. His last three finishes all ended in first round knockouts, but the first four early wins of his career all ended in the later rounds, with three ending in round two. He’s been knocked out twice himself, submitted once, and has three decision losses. All three of his early losses notably ended in the third round, with the last two of those ending in TKOs, after he was submitted in his third pro fight. Semelsberger started his pro career at 185 lb, but dropped down to 170 lb following that submission loss, although did venture back up to 185 lb for a fight in 2019. He’s exclusively competed at 170 lb since 2020. However, he fought all the way up at 205 lb as an amateur.
Overall, Semelsberger is a dangerous striker who likes to push the pace, but has yet to really evolve his grappling/wrestling. His biggest weakness has been his defensive wrestling and he’s been far too content with accepting positions on his back and sitting there with a closed guard. While his size and power has sometimes been enough to overcome that, he hasn’t faced many opponents who were really looking to attack him on the mat. In his nine UFC fights he landed 7 of his 12 attempts (58.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 12 of their 24 attempts (50% defense). His last three opponents all took him down at least once. Semelsberger has all of the physical tools to be successful, with solid power and good size for the division, but he trains at a smaller gym in Maryland and just hasn’t shown the necessary grappling improvements for long term success in the UFC. His decision making has also been a little dubious at times, which when combined with his poor grappling is a large part of why he failed to put anyone away in his last four matches, despite landing seven knockdowns in those fights. He’ll go to the ground with opponents when he shouldn’t and once there he finds himself tied up, giving his opponents time to recover. However, you can’t question his heart and he always shows up ready to throw down.
Preston Parsons
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Parsons had been set to face a fellow grappler in Bassil Hafez here, but Hafez dropped out and Semelsberger was announced as the replacement on December 20th.
Ten months removed from a split-decision loss to Trevin Giles, Parsons has traded losses and wins over his three UFC fights and will now be fighting for his job on the final leg of his contract. He made his UFC debut on short notice against Daniel Rodriguez in July 2021 and got knocked out in the first round, before bouncing back with the first decision win of his career against Evan Elder, who was making his own short notice UFC debut, and also took the fight up a weight class. Parsons said he broke his hand in each of those two fights, which resulted in longer layoffs than he would have liked leading up to his last two fights. He took nine months to return following the loss in his debut and then took 11 months off leading up to his last fight. He looked close to submitting Giles in the first round of that last fight and won the round on all three scorecards, but then lost a pair of close rounds down the stretch as Giles continued to accumulate damage, which Parsons did not wear very well as his eye swelled up. Parsons did win the grappling exchanges though, as he landed 3 of his 11 takedown attempts with over five minutes of control time and three official submission attempts. The fight took place in front of Giles’ home crowd, which could have played a factor in two of the three judges scoring it in his favor. With that said, the optics were pretty bad for Parsons and Giles clearly did more damage, although weighing submission attempts versus striking can get a little murky.
Now 10-4 as a pro, Parsons has only been past the second round twice in his career, but both of those were in his last two fights, where he split a pair of decisions. His other nine wins all ended in submissions, including eight in round one and one in round two. He was finished in three of his four losses, with two R1 TKOs and a second round submission. One of those TKOs came against Mike Perry in 2015 in Parsons’ third prio fight, and the other was against Daniel Rodriguez in his 2021 UFC debut. Parsons also had a fight against UFC fighter Ignacio Bahamondes back in 2016, who Parsons submitted in the first round. Parsons started his career at 155 lb but has been at 170 lb since 2016.
Overall, Parsons looked like a one-dimensional grappler early in his career, but has improved his striking some over the years and also added a lot of muscle. Don’t get us wrong, Parsons still relies primarily on his grappling, and we saw what happened when he was unable to land takedowns in his UFC debut against Rodriguez. Parsons holds brown belts in both BJJ and Taekwondo, and nearly locked up multiple submissions in each of his last two fights, finishing with eight combined submission attempts, but is still in search of his first UFC finish. In his three UFC fights, Parsons landed 7 of his 21 takedown attempts (33.3% accuracy), while successfully defending all three of the takedowns against him. He owns his own gym called Elevate MMA in Jacksonville, Florida, where he trains with a handful of other entry-level UFC and regional fighters, such as Trey Waters and Steven Koslow. The fact that Parsons owns the gym and teaches most of the classes seemingly makes it a lot tougher for him to go train at a bigger gym for any extended period of time, which is concerning for his personal growth moving forward in the UFC. And with that in mind, his striking defense has looked pretty terrible, which is the area where he needs to improve the most. He also doesn’t wear damage very well and his face was a mess by the end of his last fight, despite Giles not landing many huge shots. Parsons said in a recent interview that he needs to make a statement with this performance to get a new UFC contract and called for a second round finish. He also said he wants to be a lot more active this year and fight four or five times, hopefully he’s not looking past the test in front of him.
Fight Prediction:
Semelsberger will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This has the potential to look very similar to the Semelsberger/Wells fight, where Semelsberger should be able to inflict serious damage on the feet, but will struggle in the grappling exchanges. Wells is a far superior talent to Parsons, and Semelsberger gave Wells all he could handle on the feet. However, Semelsberger had no answer off his back in that match and Parsons is a grappler who will undoubtedly be looking to take Semelsberger down. Parsons’ striking defense has been just as bad as Semelsberger’s defensive wrestling, so both guys have glaring weaknesses that the other is positioned to capitalize on. That makes this a volatile matchup that will come down to whether or not Parsons can find a takedown before Semelsberger finds his chin. Both guys are dangerous in their own right, but have each struggled with their finishing efficiency. Semelsberger landed seven knockdowns in his last four fights, but failed to finish any of those opponents, while Parsons had eight submission attempts in his last two outings, both of which went the distance. You would think all of those near finishes would eventually translate to actual stoppages, but only time will tell. Parsons is fighting for a new contract, while Semelsberger is also desperate for a win after losing his last two. They each like to push a pace so it should be a fun fight, and there’s a good chance it ends in either a Semelsberger knockout or a Parsons submission. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Parsons grind out a decision win on the mat to secure his spot on the roster, so there are a few different ways this one could go, making it a trickier spot to predict with much confidence. The fact that Semelsberger stepped into the fight on three and a half weeks’ notice is somewhat concerning, as he did not have a full camp to prepare. That leaves us inclined to take the slight plus money on Parsons’ side of things, and both a submission or a decision win are in play for him. The way Semelsberger closes his guard and looks to stall on the mat has us leaning Parsons by decision, but it will likely be a hell of a sweat to get there.
Our favorite bet here is “Preston Parsons DEC” at +425.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Semelsberger has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, despite three of those going the distance. He unsurprisingly put up massive scores (126 both times) in his two first round knockouts that each came in the opening 16 seconds of fights and included the Quick Win Bonus, but also notably scored 103 points in a decision victory in his UFC debut and then 102 points in his most recent decision with the help of three knockdowns. However, he also scored just 63 DraftKings points in his one other decision win, where he got taken down four times and controlled for nearly six minutes. If this fight does make it to the scorecards, it will likely play out similarly, as Parsons is always looking to grapple. That leaves Semelsberger more reliant on landing a knockout to score well, but working in Semelsberger’s favor, Parsons has a poor striking defense and has been knocked out twice in the past. Semelsberger has also landed a ridiculous seven knockdowns in his last four fights, and he’s always in play for a multi-knockdown performance. Whoever wins this fight will have a good shot at scoring well, although it’s always possible that Parsons controls Semelsberger for the first round or two and then Semelsberger comes back to either land a late knockout or win a close decision, neither of which would score well in that scenario. The odds imply Semelsberger has a 55% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Parsons is coming off a split-decision loss where even if he had won he only would have scored 80 DraftKings points. While he found a decent amount of grappling success in that fight, he failed to land many ground strikes, which was the biggest difference between that score and his previous grappling-heavy decision win that was good for 108 DraftKings points. While Parsons has yet to finish anybody in the UFC, he accrued an unusually high eight submission attempts in his last two matches, which has propped up his FanDuel scoring. That’s definitely not sustainable, but does add to his FanDuel appeal a little. The biggest concern with him has been his striking defense, which is clearly concerning against a power puncher like Semelsberger. However, if Parsons can avoid getting knocked out, then this looks like a very favorable matchup for him to find grappling success, as Semelsberger’s defensive wrestling has been pretty awful. The potential for Parsons to get knocked out does leave him with an uncertain floor, but he has solid upside on both sites. He’s also fighting for his job, so he should come in motivated for a win. The odds imply Parsons has a 45% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
5th UFC Fight (3-1)After suffering the first loss of his career in a decision against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Cortes-Acosta recently bounced back with a violent, highlight-reel knockout of Lukasz Brzeski. That was Cortes-Acosta’s first finish in the UFC, after his previous three fights all went the distance (2-1). It only took three minutes before Cortes-Acosta face planted Brzeski, which was only the second early loss of Brzeski’s career and first since 2017. Prior to that, Cortes-Acosta got his lead leg destroyed by Marcos Rogerio de Lima, but was at least able to survive to see the judges. De Lima also took Cortes-Acosta down three times and controlled him for five minutes. Leading up to that loss, Cortes-Acosta won a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights against low-level opponents in Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman. Those wins came just three weeks apart and Cortes-Acosta wasted no time getting back inside the Octagon after defeating Vanderaa in his October 2022 UFC debut. Prior to making his UFC debut, Cortes-Acosta had knocked out three straight opponents, including a R1 TKO win on DWCS after he won the vacant LFA Heavyweight belt just before that with a third round TKO.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Cortes-Acosta has five wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and four decision victories. Despite six of his 11 fights ending early, only three of those five finishes occurred in round one, and one of those was a submission in his second pro fight. Two of his KO/TKO wins came in round one, two were in round two, and one occurred in round three. His only loss went the distance.
Overall, Cortes-Acosta is a one-dimensional striker whose background is in baseball, not martial arts. He played minor league baseball, but was cut following a fight and embraced the result as he opted to become a professional fighter. While he turned pro in MMA in 2018 and landed a knockout in his first fight, he was more focussed on boxing around that time, and went 4-3 in boxing matches from 2018 to 2021. He then returned his focus to MMA in the Summer of 2021 and rattled off eight straight wins over the next 21 months. While he has one submission win on his record, he hasn’t shown anything in terms of grappling and has struggled at times with getting taken down. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, his opponents got him down on 4 of their 10 attempts (60% defense), while he failed to land his only takedown attempt. We also saw him get taken down three times in an LFA title fight just before going on DWCS, where he did a pretty good job of returning to his feet and still had the cardio to land a third round knockout. With that said, he still looks vulnerable on the mat and that may ultimately be his Achilles heel once he faces any legitimate competition at the UFC level with the ability to wrestle. We also saw him get his legs chewed up in each of his first three UFC fights, and right now he’s basically just a boxer with good cardio, volume, and power. However, that’s enough to beat a lot of the lower level Heavyweights on the roster and the UFC appears in no rush to give him tougher matchups.
Andrei Arlovski
40th UFC Fight (22-16, NC)Quickly approaching his 45th birthday, Arlovski has been finished in the first two rounds in each of his last two fights and it appears the ageless Heavyweight may finally be nearing the end. This will be his 40th UFC fight and we could 100% see him retiring if/when he loses yet again. His most recent loss was against a really low-level opponent in Don'Tale Mayes, who only has one other finish in the UFC. That second round knockout against an opponent who has struggled to finish anybody in the UFC seems to be a clear indicator that Arlovski finally went off the cliff. Prior to his two recent losses, Arlovski had won four straight close decisions against low-level Heavyweights with minimal finishing abilities. The decisions seemed to get progressively closer as time went on, to the point that even if it looked like he lost the judges would give it to him. The last two of those were split, showing just how close they were. While his last four losses have all ended early, his last 10 victories all went the distance.
Now 34-22 as a pro, Arlovski has 17 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and 14 decision victories. He’s also been knocked out 12 times, submitted three more, and has seven decision defeats. Arlovski originally joined the UFC in 2000, but left the organization in 2008, before returning in 2014. He won his first four fights back in 2014 and 2015, including a pair of first round knockouts, but has since gone 9-12 plus a No Contest that was originally a decision loss.
Overall, Arlovski is a well seasoned vet (very, very well seasoned) who has made it to the judges in 14 of his last 18 fights, with the four exceptions being early losses to Don'Tale Mayes, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Tom Aspinall, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He has a way of drawing lower level opponents into slower paced matches that allow him to rely more on his experience than his athleticism. He hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat lately, while his durability appears to be fading. He doesn't offer much in the way of grappling and hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last 13 fights, and has relied on pointing his way to victory in low-volume striking battles. The UFC had been hand-picking him easy matchups with a low risk of him getting finished, but it appears those days are over and they’re ready to use his name to build up more dangerous opponents at this point. This very well may be the final time we see Arlovski inside of the Octagon, but that’s pure speculation on our part.
Fight Prediction:
Cortes-Acosta will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while also being 12 years younger than the 44-year-old Arlovski.
The writing appears on the wall for Arlovski. He’s been finished in two straight fights and now the UFC is actually matching him up against more dangerous opponents, opposed to throwing him softballs. Cortes-Acosta whips his right hand like he’s back pitching a baseball and Arlovski never saw the much slower right hand of Mayes coming in his last fight, which is what put him out. We don’t see Arlovski surviving two rounds here and Cortes-Acosta should land his second straight knockout early in the fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Waldo Cortes-Acosta R1 or R2 KO” at -110.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Cortes-Acosta is a one-dimensional striker with no real grappling skills who relies on striking and knockouts to score well. He finally found a finish in his last outing, where he scored 106 DraftKings in a violent R1 KO. Prior to that, his first three UFC fights all went the distance (2-1), with him scoring 90 and 59 points respectively in those two decision wins. He’s shown the ability to rack up volume, but that’s still highly unlikely to be enough for him to return value at his expensive price tag unless he lands a finish. His striking-heavy style of fighting makes him a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he needs a knockout to be useful on either site. And at his really high salary, he could still easily get priced out of the winning lineup even if he does land a knockout. With that said, he looks like a high floor, high ceiling play in a good matchup and he’s at very little risk of getting finished himself. The odds imply Cortes-Acosta has an 84% chance to win, a 59% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Arlovski has averaged just 67 DraftKings points in his last 10 wins, with all of those victories ending in decisions. He failed to top 74 points in the last six of those and hasn’t finished anybody since 2015. In addition to his non-existent scoring ceiling, he’s been finished in the first two rounds in each of his last two fights and is now facing a power puncher who’s coming off a violent first round knockout. Arlovski is a month away from his 45th birthday and this very well may be his retirement fight, although we’re just speculating there. Either way, he’s an old, low floor, low ceiling play in a tough matchup and we have no interest in playing him, even at his low ownership. The odds imply Arlovski has a 16% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Brunno Ferreira
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career, Ferreira got knocked out in just 77 seconds by Nursulton Ruziboev, who was making his UFC debut on short notice replacement and was more known for his grappling. Just before that, Ferreira made his own short notice UFC debut and landed a first round knockout against Gregory Rodrigues after finishing all nine of his previous opponents on the regional scene in under seven minutes. His last five fights all ended in round one and he’s only seen the second round twice in his career. One of those two fights ended 12 seconds into round two with the other being stopped 68 seconds into the second round. His last six fights all ended in knockouts, after he submitted three of his first five opponents.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Ferreira has seven wins by KO/TKO and three submissions. Five of his seven knockouts ended in round one, with the other two ending in the opening 68 seconds of round two. All three of his submission wins also ended in round one, as did his lone career loss, which ended in a knockout.
Overall, Ferreira is a stocky Brazilian powerhouse with a judo background. On the regional scene, he was often looking to get fights to the ground, where he would then go to work with heavy ground and pound while also looking for occasional submissions. However, between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he failed to land a takedown on just two attempts, while his opponents took him down once on two attempts. Considering his longest MMA fight ended 78 seconds into round two, we have no idea what his cardio will look like in a longer fight. He’s constantly switching stances, which makes it harder for his opponents to get a read on him, but his shorter height and reach may give him trouble against taller opponents who know how to control distance well.
Phil Hawes
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Hawes has been knocked out in the first round in his last two and three of his last four fights, and continues to show serious durability concerns. However, all of those losses came against tough and dangerous opponents in Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze, and Ikram Aliskerov most recently. Just before getting knocked out by a debuting Aliskerov, Hawes appeared to suffer a bad knee injury after getting kneebarred by Roman Dolidze, but somehow returned just six months later. He apparently avoided a serious injury because he was back training in Thailand with no knee brace just two months after losing to Dolidze. That fight was somehow not stopped after the submission, and not only did Hawes get his knee damaged, he also got knocked out shortly after as he limped around the Octagon like a wounded animal. Just before that, Hawes put on an absolute masterclass against a one-dimensional wrestler in Deron Winn, who Hawes finished in a second round TKO where he outlanded Winn 118-32 in significant strikes in less than 10 minutes. That came just after Hawes got knocked out by a debuting Chris Curtis in the first round of a November 2021 fight. Hawes won a pair of wrestling-heavy decisions leading up to that loss to Curtis, after knocking out Jacob Malkoun in just 18 seconds in what was the debut for both fighters.
Now 12-5 as a pro, Hawes has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. All 10 of his finishes ended in the first two rounds, with three in round two, but seven of his last eight in round one. He’s also been finished in the first two rounds in all five of his losses, with four knockouts and one submission. Ten of his last 11 fights either ended in round one (5-3) or went the distance (2-0), although his most recent win ended in round two.
Overall, Hawes is a powerful striker and a former college wrestler. Between his two DWCS appearances and his seven UFC fights, Hawes landed 9 of his 25 takedown attempts (36% accuracy), while he defended all seven of the takedowns against him (100% defense). However, all seven of those attempts were from Kyle Daukaus (25% career takedown accuracy). Hawes averages a respectable 5.55 SSL/min and 3.70 SSA/min and was able to land 118 significant strikes against Deron Winn in less than two rounds of action and 48 significant strikes against Chris Curtis in less than one round. He has the ability to attack opponents with both his striking and his wrestling, however, he’s about as durable as a wet paper bag and doesn’t have the best cardio either. We’ve seen him get very badly hurt at multiple points in the past and his chin is a massive liability. However, he’s looked really good when conscious, so if he can ever figure out how to take a punch then he could be a problem.
Fight Prediction:
Hawes will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while Ferreira is three years younger than the 34-year-old Hawes.
This appears to be a don’t blink type of matchup between two powerhouses with suspect durability. However, both guys are coming off first round knockout losses, so it’s possible that one or both of them come in with a more conservative gameplan, which we’ve seen from Hawes at times in the past. Hawes has good wrestling and he won both of the decisions he’s been to in the UFC on the back of ground game. He can hardly afford to suffer another loss here after going 1-3 in her last four outings, so it would make sense for Hawes to come in with a safer game plan and wear Ferreira down in the clinch and on the mat to test his unknown cardio. Ferreira has shown he’s dangerous in top position, but we’ve yet to see him have to work off his back. He’s also never been past the 6:08 mark in a fight and carries a ton of muscle that will likely slow him down later on in fights. So while both guys are fully capable of knocking the other out and that’s what everyone’s expecting, we won’t be at all shocked to see Hawes slow the fight down and lean on his wrestling. If it does play out that way, it will be interesting to see how Ferreira’s cardio looks in the back half of the fight and if he can even survive for 15 minutes. However, Hawes has never finished anybody beyond the second round and also carries a lot of muscle and tends to slow down late. So this could get pretty sloppy if it hits the third round, and we could see the two of them limp to a decision in the clinch. A knockout is still the most likely outcome, and if that happens it will likely come down to who lands the first clean shot, which is tough to know going in. However, we’re going to go out on a limb and say Hawes defies the insane -1100 FDGTD odds and grinds out a decision win with his grappling.
Our favorite bet here is “Phil Hawes DEC” at +1000.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Ferreira has defied the odds in both of his UFC fights so far. He made his short notice UFC debut in January 2023 against Gregory Rodrigues as a +255 underdog and pulled off the upset in a first round knockout. He then stepped into his next fight as a -225 favorite and got knocked out by an unknown fighter coming off a long layoff who was making his own short notice UFC debut. Both of those outcomes came down to who landed the first clean shot and Ferreira has still never been in a fight that made it past the 6:08 mark. He’s built like a fire hydrant and has a judo background that he’s yet to utilize in the UFC. On the regional scene, he was often looking to take opponents down and beat them up with ground and pound, which is a great way to put up huge DFS scores. However, between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance he failed to land either of his two takedown attempts and Hawes has a 100% takedown defense and a wrestling background. So this doesn’t look like a great matchup for Ferreira to finally showcase his ground game. Nevertheless, Ferreira scored 109 DraftKings points in his lone UFC win, showing a solid scoring ceiling from striking alone when he can find a finish. And Hawes has a non-existent chin and has been finished in all five of his pro losses, including three first round knockouts in his last four fights. That obviously looks good on paper for Ferreira’s chances of ending things early, maybe a little too good. Ferreira scored just one DraftKings point in his recent knockout loss, which is the first time Ferreira has ever tasted defeat in his career. You never know how fighters will respond to their first loss, especially when it comes in a violent knockout. Will Ferreira become more conservative with his approach? Maybe. Will his chin be compromised moving forward? Possibly. Will he look to rely more on his wrestling? It would make sense. All of these questions will be answered on Saturday, but ultimately the oddsmakers are still fully expecting this fight to end early as they installed a -1100 FDGTD line. Someone getting knocked out is definitely the most likely outcome, as you have two power punchers with durability concerns. With both fighters priced very reasonably, it’s hard to see either of them getting left out of the winning lineup with a finish, but that won’t go overlooked by the field and this fight will be incredibly highly owned. So if it does somehow bust, there will be a massive amount of leverage to be gained in tournaments by being underweight on it, but you better bring your wheelbarrow if you intend to completely fade it. The safer approach is to have healthy exposure on each side and look to get different elsewhere in your lineups. The odds imply Ferreira has a 55% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Hawes has been about as boom or bust as it gets in DFS. In his four UFC wins, he averaged 114 DraftKings points, with at least 95 points in all of those and two scores of 128 or more. Both of his big scores came in knockouts, but he still scored 95 and 96 DraftKings points respectively in his two decision victories. However, he was knocked out in the first round in all three of his UFC losses, failing to reach 20 points in any of those. His combination of power, wrestling, and striking is great when it comes to his scoring ceiling, but his glass chin always leaves him prone to getting knocked out. He’s been finished in round one in three of his last four fights, and is desperate to get back on track here after suffering two straight losses. However, he’s going against another dangerous power puncher, so Hawes will be at risk of getting knocked out throughout the course of this matchup. It will be interesting to see if he comes in with a more conservative gameplan because of that, and we’ve seen him grind out two wrestling-heavy decisions in the past. Ferreira does have a judo background, but his grappling remains untested at the UFC level so it’s hard to know how he’ll fare in those exchanges. If Hawes does look to lean on his wrestling, he can still score well on DraftKings, but needs a finish to be useful on FanDuel. Hawes’ UFC losses have come against tough opponents and this does look like a step down in competition for him against an unproven opponent. So if he can remain conscious it could be a good bounce back spot and after getting planked in each of his last two outings, we’re getting him at a slight discount when it comes to salary and ownership. With that said, no one will be surprised if Hawes takes another trip to the abyss here and he’s a very volatile fighter to bet on. The odds imply Hawes has a 45% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Ricky Simon
12th UFC Fight (8-3)Coming off his first loss since 2019, Simon got finished by Song Yadong in a R5 TKO. Simon was never able to get his offense going in the fight as Song was able to effectively neutralize his wrestling, while also leading the dance on the feet. That fight got elevated from three rounds to five on about a week and a half’s notice, so the circumstances surrounding it were a little unusual. Prior to that, Simon had won five straight, with the most recent of those victories coming in an upset victory over the previously undefeated Jack Shore, who Simon submitted in the second round after hurting Shore on the feet. That came after Simon knocked out an aging Raphael Assuncao, who entered that matchup on a three fight skid and recently retired after losing five of his last six fights. That’s Simon’s only knockout win since 2018, just before he joined the UFC. Simon impressively started his UFC career off with wins over Merab Dvalishvili, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. He was able to catch Dvalishvili and Jackson early on in their careers and was losing to Dvalishvili until he landed a submission as time expired in the fight, but those wins both aged quite well. After five of Simon’s first six UFC fights went the full 15 minutes, four of his last five ended early. His last three finishes all ended in the second round.
Now 20-4 as a pro, Simon has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Ten of Simon’s 11 UFC fights have seen the second round, with seven making it to round three, and five ending in decisions (4-1). All four of his UFC finishes occurred after the seven minute mark, with three in round two and one as the third round ended. Simon has spent the vast majority of his career at 135 lb, but has also gone 4-0 at 145 lb. However, only one of those 145 lb fights was in the UFC, which was when he defeated Brian Kelleher, who has gone back and forth between 135 lb and 145 lb.
Overall, Simon is a BJJ black belt and a relentless wrestler who averages 11.7 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Between his 11 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Simon landed 59 takedowns on 118 attempts (50% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 10 times on 40 attempts (75% defense). The only time he failed to land at least two takedowns in a fight was when he got knocked out by Urijah Faber 46 seconds into the first round of a 2019 match. After getting taken down eight times in his first two UFC fights against Dvalishvili and Jackson, Simon has only been taken down once on 15 opponent attempts in his last nine fights and not at all in his last six matches. When he wasn’t able to get his wrestling going in his last fight, we saw Simon really struggle on the feet against an elite striker in Song Yadong, but it’s rare to see anyone completely neutralize Simon’s wrestling like that. He’s also had nine months since then to learn from the loss.
Mario Bautista
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Rolling in on a five-fight winning streak, Bautista is coming off a decision win against a dangerous grappler in Da'Mon Blackshear. Bautista had been scheduled to face a striker in Cody Garbrandt, but Garbrandt dropped out and Blackshear was announced as the replacement just five days out, after having just fought the week before. So it was obviously a tough turnaround for Blackshear, but Bautista also had almost no time to prepare for the complete stylistic change in opponents. Blackshear was able to take Bautista down four times in the opening five minutes to win the first round, but then slowed down in round two and Bautista took over and won each of the later rounds. Prior to that, Bautista landed three straight first round submissions against a series of lower level opponents, after winning a decision over another suspect opponent in Jay Perrin, who was making his UFC debut and later got cut after going 0-3 with the promotion. The last time Bautista lost a fight was in March 2021 when Trevin Jones knocked him out early in the second round. Bautista’s only other UFC loss also came in the first round, when he got submitted in his 2019 UFC debut by Cory Sandhagen. Bautista bounced back from the loss in a high-volume decision win, before handing Miles Johns the only KO loss of his career, and then losing to Jones.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Bautista has three wins by TKO, six submissions, and four decision victories. All nine of his early wins came in the first two rounds, with five in round one and four in round two. Both of his losses also ended early, with a 2021 R2 TKO against Trevin Jones and a 2019 R1 submission loss to Cory Sandhagen in Bautista’s UFC debut. Six of his nine UFC fights ended in under seven minutes (4-2), with the other three going the distance.
Overall, Bautista has grown into being a really well rounded fighter, after looking primarily like a striker earlier in his UFC career. He’s a BJJ brown belt and it’s clear he’s made a ton of improvements over the last couple of years, but he’s also faced a lot of low-level opponents, so it’s harder to know how he’ll fare as he begins fighting ranked competition. He didn’t look to wrestle much in his first four UFC fights, as he had only landed one takedown on three attempts, but he’s landed 12 takedowns on 23 attempts in his last five matches and has overall now landed 13 takedowns on 26 attempts (50% accuracy) in his nine-fight UFC career. He’s also been taken down 10 times on 23 attempts by his opponents (56.5% defense), so his takedown defense has not been exceptional. He lands a good amount of striking volume, as he averages 5.32 SSL/min and he does a good job of using all his weapons as he mixes in punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. Bautista trains in Arizona at the MMA Lab with the current Bantamweight champ, in addition to several other UFC fights, including Marcus McGhee who will be fighting alongside him on Saturday’s card.
Fight Prediction:
Bautista will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach.
This is a big step up in competition for Bautista, who has been asking for ranked opponents for a while and is finally getting one. Bautista has looked good over his current five-fight winning streak, but he was also facing a much lower level of competition. The toughest opponent he went up against over that stretch was Da'Mon Blackshear, who was stepping in on short notice after just fighting the week before, is now 2-2-1 in the UFC, and took the first round off Bautista, landing four takedowns in the opening five minutes. Blackshear is a pretty good grappler, but he’s not as good a wrestler as Simon and has far worse cardio. Bautista has just a 56.5% takedown defense, which is concerning as he squares off against a relentless wrestler like Simon. Bautista should have the striking advantage if the fight remains standing, we just don’t see it staying on the feet for long. We expect Simon to put up a big takedown total and get back on track with a wrestling-heavy decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Ricky Simon DEC” at +145.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Simon has been a DFS scoring machine when he wins, averaging 103 DraftKings points in his eight UFC victories and scoring 98 or more points in each of his last six wins. He’s coming off his first loss since 2019 and had won five straight before getting finished by Song Yadong in his last match. So outside of his recent slipup he’s been very consistent when it comes to both winning and scoring well. He’s landed multiple takedowns in 10 of his 11 UFC fights, with the one exception being a 2019 R1 KO loss, which is the only time he didn’t make it to the second round in a UFC fight. While his wrestling-heavy approach is best suited for the DraftKings scoring system, he still lands enough takedowns to still score pretty well on FanDuel even in decisions. In his last three decision wins, he averaged 102 DraftKings points and 97 points on FanDuel. Simon really struggled to get his wrestling going in his last match against a really tough Song Yadong, who came in with a 71% takedown defense, but will now get a more favorable matchup against the 56% takedown defense of Bautista, who got taken down four times in the first round of his last fight alone. So while Bautista is a solid fighter and a dangerous opponent, this still looks like a pretty good spot for Simon to find a good amount of wrestling success and score well even in a decision. The odds imply Simon has a 62% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Bautista had been running roughshod through a series of low-level opponents, and he began his current five-fight winning streak with DraftKings scores of 104, 105, 118, and 111. However, he finally faced a more formidable opponent in his last match, and while he still won a decision, his scoring came back down to Earth as he put up 84 points. Prior to that closer decision win, he had landed three straight first round submissions in a series of dream matchups. Now he’ll face a big step up in competition and things will get much tougher for Bautista. His defensive wrestling hasn’t been exceptional (56% takedown defense) and all but one of the opponents who have tried to take him down in the UFC have been successful. He got taken down four times in the first round of his last fight and he was fortunate there that Blackshear has bad cardio and greatly slowed down in the later rounds. Simon is a better wrestler than Blackshear and also has far superior cardio, as well as better striking. Therefore, we expect Simon to be able to get Bautista down and continue that wrestling success over the course of three rounds. That will make life tough on Bautista and also make it hard for him to score well without a finish. At his cheap price tag, it’s still possible he could serve as a value play in a decision win, but only if he can avoid getting controlled for extended periods of time. The odds imply Bautista has a 38% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Jim Miller
43rd UFC Fight (25-16, NC)Miller is coming off a violent 23 second first round knockout against a fraudulent debuting fighter in Jesse Butler. Miller had originally been scheduled to face Ludovit Klein, but he dropped out and Jared Gordon stepped in. Then Gordon announced at media day that he just had a concussion and they pulled him from the card and Butler stepped in on two days’ notice. Short notice matchups are nothing new for the longtime UFC veteran as he’s dealt with numerous late changes in recent years. Going back to early 2021, he had been scheduled to face Bobby Green, but Green collapsed after weigh-ins and Miller ended up losing a decision to Joe Solecki a couple of months later. Then Miller was set to face Nikolas Motta later that year, but tested positive for COVID and instead faced a debuting Erick Gonzalez four weeks later, who Miller knocked out in the second round. The Motta fight was then put back together in early 2022 and Miller landed another second round knockout win against another debuting fighter. The UFC then put the fight back together with Bobby Green, but he failed a drug test and Miller ended up facing Donald Cerrone on short notice, who Miller submitted in the second round. Following three straight wins, Miller was scheduled to fight Gabriel Benitez in early 2023, but he dropped out and Alexander Hernandez stepped in on short notice and outlanded his way to a decision win over Miller, which is the only time Miller has lost in his last five fights. Now the Benitez fight got put back together here.
Now 36-17 as a pro, Miller has seven wins by KO/TKO, 19 submissions, and 10 decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has 12 decision losses. Miller has lost the last seven decisions he’s been to, but hasn’t been finished since 2018 when Charles Oliveira submitted him in the first round. Miller’s last eight wins all ended early, with his last decision victory coming all the way back in 2016. While his most recent finish ended in round one, his previous three all occurred in the second round. The last time Miller finished anybody beyond the second round was in a 2011 R3 TKO win.
Overall, Miller is a high-level grappler and BJJ black belt. While he’s historically looked to end fights with submissions, three of his last four finishes ended in knockouts after only landing four knockout wins in his first 48 pro matches. Just keep in mind, all three of those came against debuting fighters with suspect durability. Miller doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, averaging just 2.86 SSL/min in his career, while tacking on 1.6 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. In his last 11 fights, he only landed six takedowns on 10 attempts (60% accuracy), while his opponents got him down six times on 13 attempts (53.8% defense). The last time he landed more than two takedowns in a fight was all the way back in 2016 and it’s rare to see him put up big takedown numbers. For years, Miller had been saying that his plan is to make it to the UFC 300 card in mid 2024 and then retire, but now that it’s just around the corner he’s said that he wants to continue fighting. It’s a little unusual that he already has plans to fight again on that card in just a few months while also having this fight booked now, so we’ll see if he gets caught looking ahead.
Gabriel Benitez
14th UFC Fight (7-6)It’s been 17 months since the 35-year-old Benitez last competed, when he knocked out a fragile Charlie Ontiveros in the first round of an August 2022 match. He had been scheduled to face Miller in early 2023 but ended up withdrawing and sitting on the sidelines for another 11 months. He moved back up to 155 lb for his last fight, after missing weight by 2 lb for his previous one. He fought at 155 lb earlier in his career, but dropped down to 145 lb in 2014, one fight before going on The Ultimate Fighter Latin America Season 1. Despite losing his second fight on the show, the UFC still awarded him a contract and he fought his first eight UFC fights at 145 lb (5-3), never missing weight over that stretch. He then moved up to 155 lb in 2020 and lost a decision to Omar Morales, before bouncing back with a first round KO win over a suspect Justin Jaynes, who has also spent time down at 145 lb. Following that win, Benitez attempted to drop back down to 145 lb, but missed weight and Jonathan Pearce refused to continue with the match. Benitez then was able to make the 146 lb limit against Billy Quarantillo, but got dominated on the mat and finished in the third round. Staying at 145 lb, he then missed weight again in his next fight in a R1 KO loss to David Onama, before returning to 155 lb. He’s just 2-4 in his last six fights and his only two wins since 2018 were against terrible opponents in Justin Jaynes and Charlie Ontiveros.
Now 23-10 as a pro, Benitez has nine wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Seventeen of his 333 career fights ended in the first round (12-5). Simply looking at Benitez’s record, it would be easy to mistake him as a grappler, with so many submission wins to his name. However, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2016 and three of his last four submissions were by guillotine choke, with the other ending in a heel hook. So he’s really only using submission attempts defensively and he’s only landed one takedown in 13 UFC fights on just three attempts.
Overall, Benitez is an exciting brawler, but has been struggling to make 145 lb later in his career and is a little undersized at 155 lb. His only two UFC wins at 155 lb came against another undersized fighter in Justin Jaynes, who’s no longer in the UFC after going 1-4 with the organization, and Charlie Ontiveros, who was finished in all three of his UFC fights. As you’ll hear from the broadcast every time Benitez fights, he throws powerful kicks, but is also dangerous with his hands. His biggest issue lately has been his durability, as he’s been knocked out in three of his last four losses. In fairness to him, his losses have come against tough opponents. After a year and a half away from the Octagon, it will be interesting to see how he looks here.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” with a 71” reach, but Benitez is five years younger than the 40-year-old Miller.
This is sort of an interesting matchup as Miller has been beating up on a bunch of low-level opponents lately and Benitez is actually pretty solid, at least until he ends up on his back. While Miller is a really solid grappler, he doesn’t land a ton of takedowns and has been pretty content striking in a lot of his recent fights. However, you have to imagine he’ll be looking to get this fight to the ground, where he’ll hold a massive advantage, especially considering he’s planning on fighting again in a few months and doesn’t want to endure any serious injuries. Benitez has the ability to knock Miller out or even throw up a guillotine, but has looked really bad on the mat. So if Miller can get him down and protect his neck on the way to the mat, there’s a really good chance he’ll be able to lock up a submission. However, if for some reason Miller decides to keep it standing or can’t complete a takedown, then he’ll be in some real trouble. That at least leaves some uncertainty in the matchup, but we still like Miller’s chances of getting Benitez down and submitting him in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Jim Miller SUB” at +420.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Miller has gone 4-1 in his last five fights, but all of those wins came in extremely favorable matchups. The most recent was against a UFC newcomer who was fighting up a weight class on just two days’ notice. Two of the others were also against debuting fighters and the fourth was against the corpse of a half-retired Donald Cerrone. Nevertheless, Miller has done a good job of capitalizing on the opportunities in front of him and his last eight wins all ended early. He doesn’t land enough striking volume or takedowns to score well without a finish, but that typically doesn’t matter since he hasn’t won a decision since 2016, where he only scored 76 DraftKings points. He’s lost the last seven decisions he’s been to, but also hasn’t been finished since 2018. So whenever he fights we typically either see him land a finish and score pretty well, or lose a decision. Now he’s facing an opponent in Benitez who’s been finished in 6 of his 10 career losses and hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Benitez also spent most of his UFC career down at 145 lb, and just like Miller, isn’t the biggest 155er. That’s all encouraging for Miller’s chances of landing another finish here, but this is definitely a step up in competition from the guys Miller has been finishing lately. There has been a massive line move in Miller’s favor, which should drive his ownership up a good amount. That’s at least one downside for him in tournaments, but he looks like a great value in low-risk contests. The odds imply Miller has a 58% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Benitez is averaging 92 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, but has shown tons of upside in his last few victories. After only averaging 71 points in his first four UFC wins, he’s seen that number jump all the way to 121 points in his last three victories, all of which ended in first round knockouts. However, those also were all in very favorable matchups and now he’s facing a much tougher test in the ageless Jim Miller. Benitez is a pure striker whose grappling is basically limited to looking for guillotines. He’s only landed one takedown in his 13-fight UFC career and failed to top 68 DraftKings points in either of his two UFC decision wins. He also scored just 57 points in a third round submission win in his 2014 UFC debut, so he’s been reliant on ending things in the first two rounds to be useful. While Miller has been finished five times in his career, no one has put him away early since 2018 when Charles Oliveira submitted him. So Benitez will have his work cut out for him if he wants to find the finish he needs to score well. The odds imply Benitez has a 42% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #X
Manel Kape
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Kape has now won four straight fights, after losing a pair of decisions in his first two UFC appearances. The UFC threw him straight into the deep end in his 2021 UFC debut, when he squared off against Alexandre Pantoja, who has since won and defended the Flyweight belt. Pantoja outlanded his way to victory in a striking battle, surprisingly only attempting one failed takedown in the fight. Kape then faced Matheus Nicolau and lost a close split decision, which to this day Kape claims he won easily. Kape also seemed to think he beat Pantoja for what it’s worth. Kape bounced back from the pair of decision losses with back-to-back first round knockouts against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, who went 1-6 in the UFC, and Ode Osbourne, who’s currently 4-4 in the UFC. Kape then had his next fight canceled due to a failed drug test, followed by another cancellation when Rogerio Bontorin botched his weight cut. Kape finally returned in late 2022 and won a decision over David Dvorak, who was in the midst of a three-fight losing streak. Kape was then scheduled to face Alex Perez, but he dropped out on the night of the fight. Next Kape was booked to face Deiveson Figueiredo, but he ended up not being medically cleared. Kape was then set to face Kai Kara-France in his last match, but Kara-France pulled out due to a concussion suffered in training and UFC newcomer Felipe Dos Santos was announced as the replacement 19 days out. Dos Santos gave Kape all he could handle, but Kape still won a unanimous decision. All six of Kape’s UFC fights ended in either first round knockout wins (2) or decisions (2-2).
Now 19-6 as a pro, Kape has 11 wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and three decision victories. He hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and his last five finishes all ended in KO/TKOs. While he’s never been knocked out himself, he’s been submitted twice and has four decision losses, with two of those being split. Nine of his 16 early wins occurred in round one, three ended in round two, three finished in round three, and the other was in round four. All six of his career losses made it to the third round, with both of his submission defeats occurring late in round three, in 2014 and 2017 respectively. Kape has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, but dropped down to 125 lb when he joined the UFC, where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Kape started his training in boxing as a child because his father was a boxer. He’s a quick striker who can throw flurries of punches, but he can also be overly patient at times and his fight IQ is questionable. He loves to showboat and seems to prioritize that over pushing for finishes at times. In his six UFC fights, he landed three of his eight takedown attempts (37.5% accuracy), although all but one of those attempts came in his debut and he only attempted one takedown in his last five matches, which landed late in the fight against Dos Santos to ride out the victory. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down on 4 of 18 opponent attempts (77.7% defense). While he’s a BJJ black belt, his defensive wrestling still leaves something to be desired. However, he does train with the Basharat brothers at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, and at 30 years old he should still be improving.
Matheus Nicolau
10th UFC Fight (7-2)Nicolau recently had a six-fight winning streak snapped in a first round knockout loss to Brandon Royval, which then propelled Royval into a title shot. Just before that, Nicolau landed his first UFC knockout win and his first finish of any kind since his 2015 UFC debut. That last win ended in a second round knockout against a fragile Matt Schnell, who has been finished in six of his seven pro losses. Nicolau dropped Schnell twice in the fight, but per usual spent the entire fight circling away from Schnell on the outside of the Octagon. He came into his previous fight with an identical game plan as he spent the fight circling away from David Dvorak as Nicolau won an ultra low-volume decision. He won two more low-volume decisions just before that, against Tim Elliot and Manel Kape. Nicolau originally made his UFC debut in 2015 and won his first fight with a third round submission. He then won a pair of decisions before getting knocked out in the first round by Dustin Ortiz in 2018 and was released following the loss. He landed two wins outside of the organization (decision and submission) before being brought back into the UFC in 2021 when he faced Kape and squeaked out a close split-decision win.
Now 19-3-1 as a pro, Nicolau has five wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and nine decision victories. He’s been knocked out in the first round in all three of his career losses (2012, 2018 & 2023) and is 9-0-1 with the judges, with the draw coming in his third pro fight back in 2011. Five of his last six UFC wins have gone the distance, with many of those being close. To his credit, Nicolau has won 12 of his last 14 fights, so despite being involved in several close fights, he knows how to do just enough to get his hand raised. Nicolau has fought at both 125 lb and 135 lb in his career and he made his UFC debut at 135 lb where he landed a submission, before dropping down to 125 lb after that. He did move back up to 135 lb for his two fights outside of the UFC in 2019, but dropped back down to 125 lb when he returned to the organization.
Overall, Nicolau is a painfully patient counter striker who likes to circle the outside of the Octagon and force his opponents to chase him. He constantly underwhelms when it comes to his output and only averages 3.66 SSL/min and 3.14 SSA/min. He’s a BJJ black belt, but has only completed one submission since 2015, which occurred outside of the UFC in 2019 at 135 lb. In his nine UFC fights, he landed 10 of his 22 takedown attempts (45.5% accuracy), while his opponents only got him down on 1 of their 15 attempts (93.3% defense). While he has decent hand speed and power at Flyweight, he has been content with reducing the outcome of fights to a handful of striking exchanges as he spends the rest of the time circling away from contact. He’s never lost two fights in a row in his career, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to his latest knockout loss.
Fight Prediction:
Nicolau will have a 1” height advantage, but Kape will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is a rematch of a 2021 fight that Nicolau won via split decision. Nicolau clearly won the first round of that fight through his wrestling, while Kape won round two on the feet. The third round was incredibly close and that’s where the judges were split, but two of the three thought Nicolau did enough to get his hand raised. Nicolau looked to have the wrestling advantage, but Kape appeared more dangerous on the feet and also more durable. Nicolau has never lost a decision in his career (9-0-1), while Kape is just 3-4 with the judges, so clearly Nicolau has a knack for squeaking out close decisions, while Kape is just the king of complaining after the fact. Kape has also lost two of the four third rounds he’s been to in the UFC, so he doesn’t close out fights exceptionally well over the final five minutes. That’s concerning if you’re laying the chalk on him as a large favorite. Nicolau has been kind of chinny, with all three of his career losses ending in first round knockouts, so that may be a better angle to take if you want to bet Kape. However, Nicolau’s passive approach to fighting traditionally limits the number of opportunities that his opponents get to land many clean shots on him and now that he’s coming off a knockout loss we’d be surprised to see him suddenly become more willing to throw down in a fire fight. We fully expect him to circle the outside of the Octagon and come in with a counter-heavy approach, while also mixing in some wrestling. He’s attempted at least one takedown in all seven of his UFC fights that made it out of the first round and landed two of his nine attempts against Kape the first time these two fought. Even with limited opportunities, Kape will have a decent shot at knocking Nicolau out, especially early on, but otherwise we expect to see another typical Nicolau fight that ends in a close, low-volume decision that hinges on how much wrestling success Nicolau can find. While Nicolau has never lost a decision before, Kape is certainly capable of changing that if he can keep the fight standing, and also has far more finishing upside than Nicolau. So Kape is the rightful favorite, and with more ways to win he’ll be our pick. However, we saw Nicolau squeak by in a close decision the last time they fought and it would not be shocking to see the same result once again. With that said, we lean towards Kape knocking Nicolau out early on if he can track him down and the smaller cage should help with that.
Our favorite bet here is “Manel Kape R1 or R2” at +200.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Kape has averaged 101 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, with two of those victories ending in first round knockouts and two ending in decisions. While he was able to fill up the stat sheet and still score 92 DraftKings points in his most recent decision win, he only scored 72 points in his previous decision victory. And had the split decision gone in his way in his first fight against Nicolau, he still only would have scored 58 points on DraftKings. So Kape has given us no indication that he can return value without a finish at his expensive price tag, especially in this matchup against an opponent who likes to evade contact and mix in wrestling. The only real question is whether or not Kape can score well with a finish in the later rounds or if he’ll be reliant on finishing Nicolau in the opening five minutes. Barring a multi-knockdown performance, we lean towards the latter, as Nicolau has a knack for slowing fights down and reducing scoring opportunities. Working in Kape’s favor, all three of Nicolau’s career losses ended in first round knockouts and he looks to have a dubious chin. The smaller Octagon could also benefit Kape, as it will give Nicolau less room to evade. Nevertheless, treat Kape as an early KO or bust option on both sites in DFS. The odds imply Kape has a 70% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Nicolau has averaged 87 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, with five of those ending in decisions that scored 77 or fewer. He’s only landed two finishes in his nine-fight UFC career, and one of those was all the way back in his 2015 debut. The other was in 2022 against Matt Schnell, who’s been finished in six of his seven pro losses. While Nicolau was able to score well in each of those late-round finishes, returning DraftKings scores of 117 and 111 respectively, it required him landing multiple knockdowns and one or more takedowns to do so. The same can be said about the one decision that he scored well in, which occurred all the way back in 2017 against Louis Smolka. Nicolau landed three knockdowns and three takedowns in that fight, which allowed him to put up 122 DraftKings points. All of those multi-knockdown performances were in favorable matchups and Nicolau only landed one total knockdown in his other six UFC fights combined. Now he’s facing an opponent in Kape who’s never been knocked down in the UFC or knocked out in his career, so it will be much tougher for Nicolau to prop up his scoring with knockdowns. That will likely leave him reliant on his wrestling to score decently, although he hasn’t landed more than two takedowns in any of his last six UFC fights. He attempted nine against Kape the first time they fought, but only completed two of those and scored just 71 DraftKings points in that split decision win. At his cheap price tag, it’s possible that could be enough for him to serve as a value play with a similar score here, but that will all depend on what the other underdogs do. We’d be surprised to see Nicolau find a finish, or completely dominate this fight on the ground from start to finish, so we’re not very excited about his scoring ceiling. His floor is also concerning, as he’s been knocked out in the first round in all three of his pro losses, including in his most recent fight. The potential for him to find wrestling success does slightly add to his DraftKings appeal, but we’re fine completely fading him on FanDuel. The odds imply Nicolau has a 30% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Magomed Ankalaev
13th UFC Fight (9-1-1, NC)Ankalaev was fortunate to walk away with a No Contest when he originally faced Johnny Walker three months ago and the illegal knee that stopped the fight easily could have resulted in a DQ loss. The decision making when it comes to distinguishing a DQ from a NC appears arbitrary at best and outside of a Petr Yan curb stomp situation you really never know which it’s going to be when a fight is stopped for an illegal blow. Ankalaev was seemingly winning the fight before it was stopped, as he appeared to be landing the more impactful shots and also took Walker down and controlled him for a minute. However, he also ate nine leg kicks, which has been a problem for him in recent fights. Ten months before facing Walker, Ankalaev fought to a five-round draw for the vacant Light Heavyweight belt against Jan Blachowicz, who destroyed the legs of Ankalaev with 25 leg kicks landed on 29 attempts. All of those leg kicks occurred in the first three rounds, which left Ankalaev with no choice but to wrestle down the stretch, which he did with great success. He controlled Blachowicz for nine and a half of the final 10 minutes and in hindsight, should have looked to begin grappling sooner. After finishing the fight strong and even securing a 10-8 final round on two of the scorecards, Ankalaev adamantly argued he won. One judge agreed with him, however, one scored the fight for Blachowicz and another had it even, resulting in a split draw. Prior to that, Ankalaev had won nine straight fights, after getting submitted in the final second of his 2018 UFC debut against Paul Craig. Ankalaev’s last win came in a 2022 second round TKO win over Anthony Smith, who broke his left ankle in the first round of the fight. That’s Ankalaev’s only finish in his last six outings, after five of his first six UFC fights ended early. Four of his last six matches went the distance, with the last two of those decisions coming in five-round fights.
Now 17-1-1 plus a NC as a pro, Ankalaev has nine wins by KO/TKO and eight decisions, with his lone loss ending in a last second third round submission. Six of his nine knockouts occurred in the first round, one ended in round two, another came in round three, and the final one was in round four. Prior to the recent NC R1 stoppage in his last fight, he had seen round two in five straight matches, with four of those going the distance.
This will be the 5th five-round fight of Ankalaev’s career, but just his third in the UFC. He had a pair of fights scheduled to go five rounds prior to joining the UFC, where he landed a pair of knockouts in rounds one and four. Both of his UFC five-round fights took place in 2022 and went the distance. One of those was against Thiago Santos and the other was against Jan Blachowicz.
Overall, Ankalaev is a violent but patient striker who also has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling, in addition to being a Master of Sports in Combat Sambo. However, he typically relies mostly on his striking and in his 12 UFC fights he only landed 10 takedowns on 32 attempts (31.3%). On the other side of things, he has a solid 86% takedown defense and has only been taken down three times on 22 opponent attempts. He has said in the past that he knows the fans want to see striking, which can help to explain why we don’t see more wrestling from him. However, he still only averages 3.56 SSL/min and has never landed more than 78 significant strikes in a fight, which coincidentally was his exact total in each of his two five-round decisions. He also recently said that he’s been working on being more exciting in the Octagon and going for more finishes, so maybe he’ll look to push the pace a little more as he tries to stake his claim for the next title shot.
Johnny Walker
13th UFC Fight (7-4, NC)Walker was clearly upset with how the last fight ended after eating an illegal knee to the face and then not being allowed to continue by the doctor, who stopped things very quickly. Walker did a good job of landing leg kicks in the short time that the fight lasted, but he wasn’t able to get much else going. Prior to that No Contest, Walker won three straight matches, after going just 1-4 in his previous five fights. Walker’s last win ended in a rare decision against a struggling Anthony Smith, who has gone just 1-3 in his last four fights. Walker notably landed 51 leg strikes over the course of 15 minutes in that victory. Before that, Walker knocked out Paul Craig in the first round, who then dropped down to 185 lb, after locking up a first round submission against Ion Cutelaba, who was in the midst of a three fight skid. Walker’s last loss was in early 2022 when he got knocked out in the first round by Jamahal Hill, who went on to win the Light Heavyweight belt. Just before that defeat, Walker lost an incredibly boring five-round decision to Thiago Santos, in one of the worst fights you’ll ever see.
Now 21-7 plus a NC as a pro, Walker has 16 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. He’s also been knocked out four times himself, submitted once (R2 2015), and two decision defeats. His last three early losses all ended in first round knockouts, after the first two early losses of his career ended in round two. He’s only made it to the judges four times in his career and he lost two of the three decisions he’s been to in the UFC. Twenty-one of his 29 pro fights (72.4%) were stopped in round one (17-3, NC). All 12 of Walker’s UFC fights ended in either the first round (6-2, NC) or went the distance (1-2).
This will be the 3rd five-round fight of Walker’s career. The first was against Thiago Santos in 2021 and Walker lost an incredibly slow-paced decision in a five-round staring contest. Despite that lackluster affair, the UFC thrust him right back into a main event spot in his next match, where he got knocked out in the first round by Jamahal Hill. So we’ve yet to see Walker win when headlining a UFC card.
Overall, Walker is a physical freak at 6’6” with an 82” reach and immense power. He’s dialed back some of his wild ways in recent years and seems to be focussed on improving his technique and mixing in more leg kicks lately. And while he showed serious cardio concerns earlier in his career, he’s also made noticeable improvements in that area. He doesn’t look to grapple much and between his 12 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he only attempted three takedowns, although he did complete all of those. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on 9 of their 21 attempts (57.1% defense). The last three and six of his seven UFC opponents who tried to take him down were successful, so defensive wrestling has been a weakness for him. While Walker is a BJJ brown belt and was able to submit a braindead Ion Cutelaba, that’s Walker’s only submission win in his last 17 fights and he generally relies on his striking.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 3” height advantage and 7” reach advantage.
These two fought less than three months ago but the fight was stopped in the first round after Ankalaev landed an illegal knee, resulting in a no contest. Prior to the unfortunate ending, the striking numbers were pretty close, with Walker leading 14-13 in significant strikes, with Walker landing 9 of the 10 leg kicks he threw in a fight that only lasted 193 seconds. However, Ankalaev landed more head and body shots and also took Walker down once and controlled him for a minute on the mat. Walker said he thought he was winning the fight leading up to the illegal knee, so there isn’t a ton of reason for him to change his approach here. He did a good job of landing leg kicks, which has been something Walker has excelled at and Ankalaev has struggled to defend in each of their respective last two outings. Having his legs chewed up has forced Ankalaev to wrestle more lately and he responded with takedown attempts in each of those fights. Walker has just a 57% takedown defense and six of the seven opponents who tried to take him down in the UFC were successful, so there’s no reason to think that Ankalaev can’t find success getting this fight to the mat, even if he’s been reluctant to lean heavily on his wrestling in the past. However, his general desire to keep fights standing does make it tougher to confidently predict a wrestling-heavy gameplan from him, which could result in a high-stakes striking battle early on. Both fighters throw with a ton of power and are capable of knocking out the other, although while Walker has four KO losses on his record, Ankalaev has never been knocked out. They’re also both historically been the most dangerous in the first round, with six of Ankalaev’s nine finishes and 17 of Walker’s 19 early wins ending in the opening five minutes.
We often see rematches end up being less eventful then the first first, which makes some sense since it’s easier to know and defend against what’s coming when you’ve already shared the Octagon with an opponent. Obviously their first fight didn’t last very long, but they still got a feel for the speed and the power of the other. However, that last fight was in the larger cage in Abu Dhabi, while they’ll now be fighting inside of the smaller cage at the Apex. That should force the action a little more as it will leave less room for these two monsters to evade one another. Considering Ankalaev’s wrestling advantage, that should play more into his favor, and if things get hairy or he runs out of real estate to move backwards, he can simply look for a takedown. While we’ve historically seen more finishes in the smaller cage, both of these two fought to five-round decisions against Thiago Santos at the Apex. And if we don’t get a finish in the opening round, it wouldn’t be surprising if this fight turned into a slow paced tactical battle with Walker looking to rack up leg kicks and Ankalaev patiently looking for head and body blows, while also missing in some wrestling.
Walker has two options when it comes to his cardio. He can sell out early on and try to become the first fighter to ever knock Ankalaev out, or he can try to manage it the way he did against Santos, knowing that he may need to go 25 minutes. While there is some bad blood between him and Ankalaev after that illegal knee, we would still be surprised to see him empty his gas tank looking for a finish. No one has ever been able to knock Ankalaev out and it would be incredibly risky for Walker to empty his gas tank looking for a quick finish. However, we have seen Ankalaev get his legs beaten up and Walker was finding a lot of success with that approach in the first fight, so it would make sense for him to continue that approach here. Because Ankalaev has struggled to check kicks, he’ll have no choice but to wrestle assuming he can’t find an early knockout. And while he has solid ground and pound, he hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat. So his wrestling is more likely to slow the fight down then result in a finish. Perhaps Ankalaev can outlast Walker and find a finish in the later rounds, but he wasn’t having the easiest time controlling Walker on the mat in the last fight and he may end up being more focussed on controlling positions then unloading with ground and pound. That leads us to believe that there’s a good chance this fight ends in an Ankalaev decision win, despite the knockout threat that they each possess. If it does end early, an Ankalaev knockout would be the most likely outcome, but we’re picking him to win by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Magomed Ankalaev R4, R5 or DEC” at +280.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Ankalaev has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins, but has never scored more than 97 points in a fight that has made it out of the first round. He averaged 114 DraftKings points in his three UFC R1 KO victories, but just 85 points in his other six wins. While he was able to score 96 points in a second round TKO victory in his last win and 97 points in a 2019 third round KO win, at his high price tag that’s still not quite enough for him to return value. He also only scored 80 DraftKings points and 73 points on FanDuel in a five-round decision win over Thiago Santos, which shows a path for him to fail here if he wins a decision. However, when he leaned more on his wrestling he scored 84 DraftKings points in a five-round draw against Jan Blachowicz, and if that decision had gone his way that would have been good for 114 points. Just keep in mind he only scored 59 points on FanDuel in that fight and even if he had won a decision he still only would have scored 79 points. That leaves him reliant on landing an early knockout on FanDuel, but he can score well on DraftKings in a wrestling-heavy decision win. Walker has just a 57% takedown defense and six of the seven UFC opponents (including Ankalaev) who tried to take him down were successful. So this is a good matchup for Ankalaev to lean more on his wrestling, but he’s made it clear that he would prefer to keep fights standing in general. That makes it tough to trust him, but the potential is at least there. Ultimately that makes this a trickier spot to take a hard stand in DFS, as his ability to score well in a longer fight will be reliant on him wrestling and a slower-paced striking battle is definitely in play. Ankalaev was “only” 38% owned as a five-round favorite against Blachowicz, and only 20% owned as a three-round favorite against Walker the last time these two squared. So the field hasn’t been rushing to the window to play him, which somewhat lowers the appeal of fading him. There are multiple ways he wins and fails to crack tournament winning lineups at his high price, but we won’t be surprised to see him wrestle more than normal and score well on DraftKings but not on FanDuel. The odds imply Ankalaev has an 80% chance to win, a 64% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Walker has averaged 108 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, which should come as no surprise considering six of those ended in the first round. However, he only scored 74 DraftKings points in his lone decision win. The only time he’s ever been in a fight that lasted longer than three rounds was in a 25 minute decision loss against Thiago Santos back in 2021. That was one of the worst fights you’ll ever see as no one wanted to engage in the match and Walker only scored 19 points in the defeat. That’s not especially encouraging for his scoring potential on a longer fight here, although it was also a bit of an anomaly in terms of output. However, it does speak to the fact that Walker hasn’t shown the cardio for five fast paced rounds, which seemingly leaves him reliant on either selling out for a finish early or slowing things down to pace himself for a longer fight. He’s historically been a R1 KO or bust option, but at his cheap price tag he also doesn’t need to put up a huge score to be useful. However, he does need to win, which will be tough as he enters as a massive underdog. Ankalaev has never been knocked out and the only loss of his career ended in a last second submission in his 2018 UFC debut. Ankalaev will have the wrestling advantage, which has the potential to slow things down, sway the judges in his favor, and buy time if Walker hurts him on the feet. That likely leaves Walker as a hail mary KO or bust play in a really tough spot. The odds imply Walker has a 20% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
Here's our top play on the house! For the rest of our PrizePicks plays, check out the DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content on: patreon.com/mmadfs.
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
Tom Nolan UNDER 5 Minutes
