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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Clayton Carpenter
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a decision win on DWCS, Carpenter had to dig himself out of a hole in that match after losing the first round. While he struggled to find his range on the feet early on against a longer opponent, he used his grappling to secure each of the later rounds as his opponent slowed down, as he went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. His two fights leading up to that win both ended in 45 seconds or less, with Carpenter landing a 13 second head kick KO in his second most recent fight, after locking up a kneebar in just 45 seconds before that.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Carpenter has two first round knockouts, both by head kick, two submission wins (R1 & R3), and two decision victories. After landing a third round submission in his 2019 pro debut, his last five fights have all ended in either first round finishes or decisions. One thing to keep in mind with Carpenter is that he’s only 26 years old and hasn’t fought much in the way of competition, with only three of his wins coming against opponents with winning records.
Overall, Carpenter is a well-rounded BJJ brown belt who has traveled the world winning BJJ and Muay Thai competition and also trained in boxing, karate, and judo as a kid. He does a good job of mixing up his attacks with head kicks, leg kicks, boxing, and grappling. He has shown he can be heavy in top position as he rains down elbows, although he doesn’t have any ground and pound finishes on his record yet. He trains out of the MMA Lab in Arizona and we often see Kyler Phillips in his corner along with John Crouch. Carpenter has just a 66” reach and struggles to find his range at times against longer opponents. We’ve also seen him get his lead leg chewed up and he hasn’t always shown the highest fight IQ, as he’s been willing to stand and trade for extended periods of time in fights where he has a massive grappling advantage. With that said, he’s still very early in his career and should be learning from these past mistakes and improving every time he steps inside the Octagon. The UFC has teed him up a dream matchup in his debut, so clearly they want this kid to succeed.
Juancamilo Ronderos
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Ronderos is 21 months removed from a May 2021 round-one submission loss in his short notice UFC debut that he took on just a day’s notice. He never had a chance in that fight against a tough David Dvorak, and after getting hurt on the feet Ronderos pathetically tapped to a one armed rear-naked choke that he never even attempted to fight off. That’s the only time Ronderos has competed since 2019, the year he turned pro. Ronderos’ second most recent fight was a 25 minute split decision against former UFC fighter Eric Shelton, who went 2-4 with the organization before being released in 2019. Shelton dominated Ronderos on the mat in the fight and nearly submitted him, but the judges favored the pitter pat ground strikes Ronderos was landing more than the control and submission attempts from Shelton. Looking back one fight further, Ronderos was again taken down relentlessly and easily controlled, however, he was able to reverse the position in the second round and snap the arm of his opponent in a very strange turn of events to come back and win a fight he was losing badly.
Now 4-1 as a pro, Ronderos has two second round submission wins and two decision victories. His lone loss ended in a first round submission.
Overall, Ronderos is a low-level fighter with just a 64” reach. He’s looked incredibly prone to being taken down and has a terrible submission defense. His striking has also not been impressive and the only reason he’s in the UFC is because they needed someone to fill in on a day’s notice and he was in the right place at the right time as he trains out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas. Ronderos likes to look for takedowns of his own, but struggles with his accuracy and failed to land any of his nine attempts in his last three fights. We would be shocked if Ronderos made it to a second UFC contract or even ever won a UFC fight, but he’ll have his chance to prove us wrong here as he steps inside the Octagon for the first time since May 2021.
Fight Prediction:
Carpenter will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is a year younger than the 27-year-old Ronderos.
Both of these two are still very early in their pro careers, with just 11 pro fights between them. So look for them to each make mistakes as they continue to try and sculpt their skill sets. With that said, Carpenter looks to have a potential future with the organization if he can clean some holes in his game, while Ronderos is not a UFC caliber fighter, even with the ever-decreasing talent threshold. Carpenter will have the advantage anywhere the fight goes and has the ability to knock Ronderos out or submit him. However, we have seen Carpenter go the distance in a pair of fights he probably could have found a finish in, so it’s hard to fully trust him to get Ronderos out of their early, With that said, he should be able to finish him if he actually pushes hard for it. Carpenter’s last three finishes have all occurred in the first round, and his last two matches to make it to the second round have ultimately gone the distance. While the most likely outcome is for Carpenter to finish Ronderos, we wouldn’t be shocked if Ronderos was able to survive to lose a decision, and considering the odds it’s the more interesting prop bet, although the lines look pretty accurate here.
Our favorite bet here is “Carpenter DEC” at +320.
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DFS Implications:
Carpenter looks like a somewhat interesting prospect as he makes his UFC debut, but he’s definitely still pretty green. He offers a nice combination of striking and grappling that should allow him to score well in DFS, although he hasn’t been quite active enough to really score well without a finish. His recent decision win on DWCS would have been good for 86 DraftKings points and 85 points on FanDuel, which shows a decent floor, but not high enough to return value at his expensive price tag. However, he gets a dream matchup in his debut against a very low-level opponent and Carpenter is very live to both land a finish or completely dominate this fight on the ground if he chooses to. However, one concern we have with Carpenter is that he doesn’t always fully exploit his opponents’ weaknesses, specifically when it comes to grappling. He’s still young and early in his career, so hopefully he’s improving on that, but there will likely be more growing pains along the way. He’s also only landed one career finish beyond the first round, which was in his 2019 pro debut. In a tougher matchup we might call him a round one or bust play, but Ronderos has been incredibly prone to getting taken down, which gives Carpenter ways to score well with a later finish or even in a decision. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Ronderos is only in the UFC because they needed someone to fill in against David Dvorak on a day’s notice and Ronderos was training down the street. It’s now been 21 months since Ronderos got submitted in the first round of that fight from a one-armed rear-naked choke. He’s still young at just 27 years old and only has five pro fights to his name, so he should be making improvements between every fight, especially over the course of nearly two years. That adds a little uncertainty to exactly how he’ll look here and he can only go up from where he was the last time we saw him. However, he’s given us no indication that he can be competitive in a UFC fight and he looks vulnerable in both striking and grappling exchanges. Ronderos will look for takedowns, which presents some theoretical upside, but he’s been highly inefficient with his attempts. He’s a fighter we’re looking to attack, not play in DFS, and the only argument for having any exposure to him is his low ownership and the fact that he’s coming into his second UFC fight and taking on an opponent making his debut. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
AJ Fletcher
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Fletcher is coming off a pair of decision losses in his first two fights with the organization, which are the only two losses of his career. He made his debut against a tough Matthew Semelsberger and lost a close, grappling-heavy decision, where Fletcher won the first round but faded down the stretch. Then in his most recent fight/loss, we saw the first round stay on the feet until the closing seconds, with Fletcher losing the round on all three scorecards, but showing he could take a punch. He bounced back to win the second round, and looked moments away from finding a finish late in the round. However, Fletcher punched himself out looking for a finish and then nearly got finished himself in round three as he had nothing left to offer. Prior to his two UFC losses, Fletcher had finished five straight opponents in the first round, including a R1 flying knee knockout win on DWCS in August 2021. One thing to keep in mind is that Fletcher’s last two early wins before going on DWCS both came against opponents with losing records, so it’s fair to question the level of competition that he had been facing.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Fletcher has four wins by KO, four by submission, and one decision. Six of those early wins occurred in round one, with the other two ending in round three. His lone decision win occurred in his second pro fight back in 2019 and his last seven victories have all come early, with four of his last five wins ending in first round submissions. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses ending in decisions (in his last two fights). While Fletcher has spent almost his entire career at 170 lb, he did have one fight down at 155 lb in 2019. He hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and only three of his nine career wins were against opponents with winning records.
Overall, Fletcher is an explosive fighter but fades later in fights. He’s a stocky former football player, who is short for the 170 lb division at just 5’10”. While he’s constantly looking for takedowns, we’ve seen him struggle to control opponents on the mat at times. Nevertheless, he offers a well rounded attack of both striking and grappling. We haven’t seen the most technical submission techniques out of him, and while he was able to get away with that on the regional scene, it will likely be tougher for him to complete submissions at the UFC level until he cleans that up. He’s still a very raw fighter who only turned pro in 2019, so we should be seeing improvements from him between every fight.
Themba Gorimbo
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Gorimbo has been preparing to make his UFC debut since early November when he was booked to face Billy Goff on this card. Goff ended up withdrawing in December and Fletcher was announced as the replacement with a little over seven weeks to prepare. His last two fights were essentially mirror images of the same match. They both played out almost entirely on the mat and ended with the judges, but in the first of those Gorimbo spent the entire time on his back, while in the most recent he was the one on top. Gorimbo did recently say that he dislocated his shoulder in the opening 30 seconds of the loss, which if true would help to explain why he was unable to do anything in the fight. Gorimbo was the former EFC Worldwide Welterweight champion and also fought for the EFC Lightweight belt in 2015, but got submitted in that match.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Gorimbo has one win by TKO (R1 2019), six submissions, and three decision victories. His six submission wins have been split evenly across the first two rounds and he’s never finished an opponent beyond round two. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2017), submitted once (R2 2015), and has one decision loss (2021). It’s been almost three years since one of Gorimbo’s fights ended early, although he hasn’t been very active lately, only fighting once a year for the last three years. Most of Gorimbo’s career has been spent at 170 lb, but he fought down at 155 lb for a two fight stretch in 2015 (1-1).
Overall, Gorimbo is typically looking to take opponents down and control them, but is just a BJJ blue belt. On the feet, he throws long, wild punches and kicks and is a pretty sloppy striker who will lunge into striking exchanges, which resulted in him getting knocked out in his second most recent loss. Gorimbo will be looking to become the first Zimbabwean fighter to win a UFC fight, although Blood Diamond was the first Zimbabwean fighter to be signed by the organization. Gorimbo turned pro back in 2013 and is already 32 years old, so he has more experience than your typical debuting fighter.
Fight Prediction:
Gorimbo will have a 2” height advantage and 9” reach advantage. He’s also seven years older than the 25-year-old Fletcher.
Fletcher has historically relied on landing finishes to win fights, but the UFC matched him up with two extremely durable opponents in his first two fights with the organization. Fletcher predictably struggled to end either of those matches early and then gassed out at the end of the second round both times. Now Fletcher will finally face a less durable opponent, and should have a much better chance to land the finish he needs to notch his first UFC win. We like his chances to land a finish in the first two rounds here.
Our favorite bet here is “AJ Fletcher R1 or R2 Win” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Fletcher was close to finding a finish in his last fight, but ultimately couldn’t seal the deal and gassed out trying. While he theoretically has the ability to score well through both finishes and wrestling, his cardio continues to be his biggest weakness as he fades late in fights. That makes it much tougher for him to return value at his high price tag in a decision, as he simply hasn’t shown the ability to dominate for three full rounds. However, after facing a pair of really durable opponents in his first two UFC fights, now he gets a newcomer who’s been finished in two of his three losses and looks to be prone to getting finished and controlled on the mat. While Fletcher will need to overcome a massive reach disadvantage, Gorimbo is a wild striker and doesn’t do a good job of really utilizing his reach. So we’re not overly concerned about Fletcher struggling to find his way in and if he can land anything clean, he’s got a good chance of knocking Gorimbo out. Fletcher also has the potential to submit Gorimbo, and there’s always a chance Fletcher has improved his cardio and can win a dominant grappling-heavy decision, although that may be his least likely path to victory. Fletcher’s recent losses should keep his ownership from getting out of control, but we still expect him to be decently owned on this smaller slate. The odds imply Fletcher has a 69% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Gorimbo is generally looking to take fights to the ground, making him a better DraftKings play than on FanDuel. He’s a wild striker who throws big looping shots and fails to really utilize his long reach. He’s also a little too content with holding position on the ground and has only landed one submission since 2015. Now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been finished but is prone to gassing out late, which could make it easier for Gorimbo to win a decision if he can steal one of the first two rounds. It’s not impossible for Gorimbo to find a finish, but it is unlikely, which really limits his appeal on FanDuel, where he’s far less likely to score well in a decision. The way we see him being useful on DraftKings is through takedowns and control time if he can get Fletcher down early and then simply outlast him for three rounds. Fletcher has just a 40% takedown defense and has looked terrible in the third round, so if Gorimbo can take him down and control him in one of the first two rounds, he’ll be in a good position to win round three as well and come out victorious in a decision. While that scenario is unlikely to return a slate-breaking score, at his cheap price he could very well serve as a value play on DraftKings. Just keep in mind, it’s more likely than not that FLetcher finishes him and this fight never reaches the scorecards. The odds imply Gorimbo has a 31% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Philipe Lins
3rd UFC Fight (1-2)Lins had been scheduled to face Maxim Grishin last October and everything looked normal until Lins dropped out after the slate had already started. Dropping out of fights has been an ongoing problem for Lins and after losing his first two UFC fights at Heavyweight, Lins had six straight fights canceled and then he dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his last match when he won a decision over Marcin Prachnio. After winning a million dollars in the PFL Heavyweight tournament, Lins was signed to the UFC and took on Andrei Arlovski in his May 2020 debut. Arlovski outlanded his way to a low-volume decision win as he led in significant strikes 50-41. Next, Lins took on Tanner Boser and got knocked out midway through the first round, as Boser led 15-6 in significant strikes. Lins then didn’t fight again for 22 months leading up to his recent win. In his last fight, Lins looked to wrestle for the first time in the UFC as he landed four takedowns on 11 attempts after not attempting a takedown in his first two UFC fights up at Heavyweight. Following a slower paced first round, Lins came out aggressive in round two and had Prachnio hurt on the feet. However, Prachnio was able to survive and then the two guys spent an extended period of time pushing each other up against the cage until Lins eventually secured a unanimous 29-28 decision win on the mat with three takedowns and three minutes of control time in round three.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Lins has eight wins by KO, four submissions, and three decision wins. Six of his KO wins ended in round two, one ended in round one, and another ended in round four. All four of his submission wins occurred in round one. He’s been knocked out in four of his five career losses, with the other ending in a decision. Three of those KO losses came in round one, with the other ending in round two. While two of his last three fights have gone the distance, 12 of his last 14 have ended early and 15 of his 20 pro fights have ended in the first two rounds (11-4). Lins started his career at Light Heavyweight, before moving up to Heavyweight in 2018 following two straight KO losses at Light Heavyweight. Of Lins’ four KO losses, one came in his last UFC Heavyweight fight, where he got knocked out in the first round, while the other three occurred at Light Heavyweight from 2014 to 2017. Four of Lins’ last five fights have made it out of the first round, with three of his last four making it to round three, and two of his last three going the distance. The last time he finished anybody was in 2018 and the last time he landed a finish at Light Heavyweight was in 2016.
Overall, Lins is a BJJ black belt with four first round submission wins on his record, but has only landed one submission since 2014, which came in a 2018 R1 guillotine choke. After not attempting a takedown in his two Heavyweight fights, Lins went 4 for 11 on takedowns in his last fight, so it will be interesting to see how much he looks to grapple moving forward. He only averages 3.40 SSL/min and has yet to top 64 significant strikes landed in a UFC fight.
Ovince Saint Preux
26th UFC Fight (14-11)Coming off his first win in his last three fights, Saint Preux narrowly won a split decision over the corpse of Shogun Rua. Striking was one strike away from being dead even in the first two rounds and Saint Preux didn’t attempt a takedown until round three and failed to land his lone attempt. Prior to his recent win Saint Preux had experimented with moving up to Heavyweight, only to lose a 2020 split decision to Ben Rothwell and get knocked out in the second round of a 2021 match against Tanner Boser. In between those two Heavyweight bouts, Saint Preux knocked out Alonzo Menifield in the second round of a 2020 match and then got knocked out in the second round himself by Jamahal Hill. Saint Preux is just 3-5 in his last eight matches, with five of those fights ending in round two (2-3). However, while Saint Preux lost both of his Heavyweight matches, he’s gone 3-1 in his last four Light Heavyweight fights, with the lone loss coming against future champ Jamahal Hill.
Now 26-16 as a pro, OSP has 12 wins by KO, eight by submission, and just six decisions. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted three more, and has lost nine of the 15 decisions he’s been to. Ten of OSP’s last 13 fights have ended early (6-4), while he’s lost four of the last five decisions he’s been to. Despite only going to three decisions in his last 13 fights, the last time one of his fights ended in the first round was in 2018, and OSP is generally regarded as a slow starter. He’s seen the second round in eight straight matches.
Overall, OSP is pretty well rounded and can finish opponents both on the feet or the mat, but at 39 years old we just wonder how much he has left in the tank. The only time he’s looked decent in the last few years was when he knocked out Alonzo Menifield in 2020 and other than that he’s been highly disappointing. He’s only landed one takedown in his last five fights and has been sporadic with his attempts. He doesn’t throw much volume and hasn’t topped 62 significant strikes landed in any of his last 13 fights, which helps to explain why he’s gone just 6-9 with the judges in his career.
Fight Prediction:
Saint Preux will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also two years older than the 37-year-old Lins.
While these two are only two years apart in age, it feels like the age difference is larger just based on how long Saint Preux has been in the UFC—and perhaps how he’s looked recently. Saint Preux appeared largely disinterested in his recent split-decision win over Rua and it’s been two and a half years since he finished anybody. On the other side of things, Lins was incredibly unimpressive at Heavyweight, but has transformed his body into a muscular Light Heavyweight and looked better in his first UFC fight down at Light Heavyweight. His main problem is he almost never actually shows up for fights. Lins also hasn’t finished anybody in over four years and looked to rely more on his grappling to grind out a decision win in his last fight. We could see that approach again from him here, and Saint Preux lacks the activity to win very often with the judges. With Lins sitting at 1-2 in the UFC, he’s likely fighting for his job and securing a decision victory without putting himself at risk of getting knocked out would be a smart approach. Give us Lins by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Lins DEC” at +170.
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DFS Implications:
Lins is coming off his first UFC win, which was also his first UFC fight down at Light Heavyweight and also his first fight where he attempted a takedown. He ended up landing 4 of his 11 takedown attempts with five and half minutes of control time and was able to score 92 DraftKings points in a decision win. However, he only landed 64 significant strikes and averages just 3.40 SSL/min in his career, so he appears reliant on grappling to score well when he can’t find a finish. After Lins was unable to even finish a fragile Marcin Prachnio, we don’t have a ton of confidence in his finishing ability moving forward, but working in his favor, Saint Preux has been finished in 7 of his 16 career losses and is now 39 years old. That gives us some hope that Lins is able to find a finish and put up a decent score, but we generally see Saint Preux slow down fights so a late finish still has the potential to underwhelm. At Lins’ expensive price tag there are more ways he gets left out of winning lineups, making it harder to trust him. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Saint Preux is coming off his first win in his last three fights, but scored just 55 DraftKings points in the split-decision victory over the corpse of Shogun Rua. Saint Preux has never really been one to score well as he only averages 2.72 SSL/min and 1.2 TDL/15 min. He’s now 39 years old and a sudden resurgence is highly unlikely. The things working in Saint Preux’s favor are his cheap price tag, his low ownership, and the fact that Lins has been knocked out in four of his five career losses. While those are all very compelling selling points on paper, it’s hard to get excited about a guy that couldn’t even finish Rua in his last match and hasn’t finished anybody since 2020. Even at his cheap price tag Saint Preux is unlikely to be of any use without a finish and even a later round finish may not score well enough for him to crack winning lineups, as his last third round KO win scored just 66 DraftKings points. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Khusein Askhabov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Askhabov will be making his UFC debut following a 35 month layoff, but is still just 28 years old. He had been scheduled to go on DWCS in August 2021, but ended up withdrawing due to visa issues. Then the UFC said screw it, we’ll send him straight to the UFC in July 2022, but he once again withdrew. So this will be the third time the UFC has tried to book him, hopefully he finally shows up. The last time he competed was in the Ukraine Bukovel Open Cup, which he won with a pair of first round finishes. He’s only fought four times since 2016 and 19 of his 23 wins occurred when he was 21 years old or younger.
Now 23-0 as a pro, Askhabov has six wins by KO/TKO, 10 by submission, and seven decision victories. All 16 of his finishes have come in the first two rounds, with four of his KO/TKOs ending in round one and two coming in round two. Eight of his submissions also ended in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. His last four fights all ended early, with the last three ending in round one. Askhabov has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career, but his last four fights have all been at 135 lb, while he’ll be making his debut at 145 lb. You have to wonder about a lot of the competition Askhabov has faced. His last opponent was just 3-0 and those three wins came against opponents with a combined 0-1 record. Prior to that, Askhabov defeated a 7-0 opponent, which on the surface doesn’t look terrible, but the combined record of those seven opponents was just 0-8.
Overall, Askhabov is an undefeated Russian prospect who’s hard to thoroughly evaluate because he hasn’t fought in three years and when he has competed he wasn’t taking on the toughest competition. But based on his past tape, he likes to throw a lot of kicks and frequently look for takedowns. Once on the mat, he looks for a lot of heel hooks, which could get him into trouble in the UFC, although he’ll also be making his debut against an opponent whose last fight ended in a heel hook defeat. Askhabov has spent time training at both American Top Team and Tiger Muay Thai, so he’s shared the mats with a lot of high-level talent. Askhabov hasn’t fought since he was 25 and looks to have added a decent amount of muscle since the last time we saw him, but he’ll be a guy we’re monitoring closely at weigh-ins.
Jamall Emmers
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Emmer is stepping back inside the Octagon for the first time in 18 months following an August 2021 first round heel hook submission loss to Pat Sabatini. His second most recent fight was all the way back in August 2020m, when Emmers notched his lone UFC victory in a decision over short notice replacement Vince Cachero who was fighting up a weight class. Looking back one fight further, Emmers lost a split decision in his UFC debut against Giga Chikadze, in a fight that Emmers arguably won. Emmers had been scheduled to fight Chas Skelly following the win over Cachero, but just before he was set to walk out for the match he was forced to withdraw due to back spasms that he was suffering backstage. Emmers originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS, but got knocked out in the second round by Julian Erosa and was forced to return to the regional scene and work his way back up. Emmers also has a 2016 R5 TKO loss to Thiago Moises on his record (at 155 lb), as well as a 2017 decision victory over Cory Sandhagen and a 2013 decision win over Alexander Hernandez.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Emmers has seven wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, and eight decision victories. Of his 10 finishes, four came in round one, three ended in round two, and three came in round three. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted two more times, and has two decision losses. Three of his four early losses occurred in the later rounds, with two ending in round two.
Overall, Emmers is a well-rounded fighter with a wrestling background, and while he’s pretty decent everywhere, he isn’t really exceptional anywhere. He has defended all four of the takedowns attempted against him in his three UFC fights and DWCS match, while landing seven of his own13 attempts (53.8% accuracy). He seems a little too willing to play into his opponents’ style, as we saw him willing to strike against Chikadze and willing to play around on the mat against Sabatini. That resulted in him losing both of those fights, while failing to use his well-roundedness to attack his opponents’ weaknesses. So fight IQ is definitely a concern with him. Sitting on a 1-2 UFC record, Emmers is likely fighting for his job here.
Fight Prediction:
Emmers will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. He’s also five years older than the 28-year-old Askhabov.
Both of these two are coming off extended layoffs, as it’s been 35 months since Askhabov last fought and 18 months since Emmers has competed. Also adding to the uncertainty, Askhabov is moving back up to 145 lb, after his last four fights all came at 135 lb. Emmers has spent essentially his entire career at 145 lb, but does have a fight up at 155 lb as well as a few 150 lb catchweight matches. Emmers is also the taller and longer fighter, but Askhabov looks like he’s been bulking up so it will be interesting to see how these two look at faceoffs. Askhabov loves to look for heel hooks on the ground, which has to weigh on Emmers’ mind after his last loss came by heel hook in what looked like an excruciatingly painful finish. It’s possible that results in Emmers having a quicker trigger finger when it comes to tapping if he finds himself in that position once again. Emmers at plus money feels like a trap spot, but we understand taking the slight plus money in a fight with so much uncertainty. With that said, we’re going with the newcomer here in Askhabov. It wouldn’t be surprising if he submitted Emmers, but it’s more likely he wins by decision.
Our favorite bet here is Askhabov’s ML at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Askhabov is typically looking to take opponents down and hunt for submissions, but he does appear to have okay striking as well, where he largely relies on his kicks. His grappling-heavy style of fighting is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system, but his history of landing finishes presents upside on FanDuel as well. However, the fact that he hasn’t fought in nearly three years is concerning and makes it tougher to know what we can really expect out of him as he makes his long awaited UFC debut. Askhabov doesn’t typically land a ton of striking volume, so he’ll either need a finish or a dominant grappling performance to score well. Working against him, Emmers has a wrestling background and has yet to be taken down in the UFC, although he’s only faced four attempts. We’re not getting too hung up on Emmers’ 100% takedown defense based on who he’s fought, and it remains largely untested. However, it’s still not encouraging for Askhabov’s chances of completely dominating him on the ground for three rounds, which likely leaves Askhabov reliant on landing a finish to score well. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Emmers is also coming off a long layoff following a heel hook submission loss that looked to damage his knee back in August 2021. In his lone UFC win, Emmers was able to score 109 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel despite the fight going the distance, but keep in mind he was fighting a short notice replacement making his UFC debut up a weight class. The last time Emmers finished anybody was in the LFA, when he landed a third round submission back in early 2020. While he offers a solid combination of striking and wrestling, he lacks the fight IQ to fully utilize his athleticism and well-roundedness. He’s a little too willing to strike with strikers and grapple with grapplers, and we wish he would be more aggressive with attacking his opponents’ weaknesses. It’s hard to know his current form following the knee injury and subsequent time away. When you combine that with the fact that he’s taking on a UFC newcomer who also hasn’t fought in an extended period of time, this fight is founded on uncertainty. That widens the potential range of scoring outcomes, but Emmers likely needs a finish here to really score well. However, at his cheaper price tag, he could potentially still serve as a value play even with a decision win. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Mayra Bueno Silva
8th UFC Fight (4-2-1)Fresh off yet another first round armbar submission win, Bueno Silva made Stephanie Egger pay for daring to go to the ground with her. It’s amazing that fighters still look to take Bueno Silva down, as she has such a dangerous guard off her back and three of her four UFC wins have come by R1 armbar. Bueno Silva’s one other win came in a close decision against Wu Yanan.
Now 9-2-1 as a pro,Bueno Silva has one win by TKO, six first round submissions, and two decision victories. Both of her losses also ended in decisions and she’s never been finished. All 12 of her pro fights have either ended in the first round or gone the distance. Bueno Silva bounced between 125 lb and 135 lb early in her career, but her first five UFC fights were all at 125 lb (2-2-1), before she moved up to 135 lb for her last two matches (2-0).
Overall, Bueno Silva is a powerful striker and dangerous submission threat, but she only uses her submission skills defensively. She’s only attempted one takedown in seven UFC fights, which she failed to land against Wu Yanan. She’s extremely durable in addition to being very dangerous off her back, which makes her a really tough opponent to put away. She’s a BJJ purple belt and trains out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima with the Lightweight champ Charles Oliveira. Bueno Silva has a 67% takedown defense, but all seven of her UFC opponents have taken her down at least once and she’s been grounded 11 times on 34 attempts overall.
Lina Lansberg
11th UFC Fight (4-6)Coming in sideways to the tailend of her career, the 40-year-old Lansberg has lost three straight fights and has fought to seven straight decisions. One judge actually scored her most recent loss a draw after Lansberg landed a knockdown in the first round and then took an illegal knee from Rosa in the second round, while losing both of the later rounds on all three score cards. Lansberg struggled with being taken down and controlled in the fight, as Rosa landed three takedowns with nearly 10 minutes of control time. Prior to that, Lansberg lost decisions to Pannie Kianzad and Sara McMann, and Lansberg hasn’t won a fight since 2019. Lansberg suffered a pair of second round TKO losses to Cris Cyborg and Aspen Ladd in her first three UFC fights, but her other eight UFC matches have all gone the distance (4-4).
Now 10-7 as a pro, Lansberg has four wins by TKO and six decisions. All four of her finishes came in her first seven pro fights, prior to joining the UFC. She also has three TKO losses on her record, with the first of those coming in the third round of her 2012 pro debut against Pannie Kianzad. The more recent two came in a 2016 R2 TKO against Cris Cyborg and a 2017 R2 TKO against Aspen Ladd, which was the last time one of Lansberg’s fights ended early. Her other four losses all ended in decisions, all of which occurred in her last six fights. The last time Lansberg finished an opponent was in a 2016 R2 TKO just before she joined the UFC.
Overall, Lansberg didn’t turn pro until she was 31 and got a late start in MMA, helping to explain why she’s still fighting at 40 years old. She’s the clinch queen and her fights are all very similar as we simply see extended periods of time spent in the clinch along the fence with her looking to land elbows. Lansberg has only landed above 50 significant strikes in one of her 10 UFC fights, which was in a 2017 decision win when she landed 80. In her 10 UFC fights, Lansberg has landed just 5 of her 18 takedown attempts (27.8% accuracy). She’s 4-0 in UFC fights where she’s landed a takedown and 0-6 when she hasn’t landed a takedown.
Fight Prediction:
Lansberg will have a 1” height advantage, but Bueno Silva will have a 1” reach advantage and is nine years younger than the 40-year-old Lansberg.
Bueno Silva is a better striker and grappler than Lansberg, but sometimes allows her ego to get in the way and has a terrible fight IQ. She’s incredibly dangerous off her back, but never looks for takedowns. She’s also a powerful striker, but gets caught up at times trying to prove how durable she is. She’s spent an alarming amount of time being controlled in her UFC career, which isn’t ideal in this matchup as she faces an opponent who thrives in the clinch. While Lansberg has never been in a fight that ended in a submission, if she’s foolish enough to try and take Bueno Silva down that could change here. However, if Lansberg comes in with a smart game plan and keeps the fight standing, there’s definitely a world where she wins two rounds controlling Bueno Silva along the fence and landing elbows to steal a decision. We’ve also seen Bueno Silva lose a point before for a fence grab, which goes back to her low fight IQ. Nevertheless, it’s far more likely that Bueno Silva will be too physical for the aging Lansberg and win a decision, but the line is arguably a little wide. We’ll say Bueno Silva wins a decision, but it’s not the most confident prediction as a Bueno Silva submission or a Lansberg decision are also possible.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -132.
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DFS Implications:
Bueno Silva has been a R1 or bust fighter throughout her career, with all 12 of her pro fights either ending in first round wins or decisions. She excels at landing submissions off her back, which isn’t ideal in DFS as it means she’s not banking any takedowns or control time, and she failed to land the only takedown she’s ever attempted in the UFC. Her three first round submission wins scored just 92, 91, and 95 DraftKings points, although she’ll typically score a little better on FanDuel. While Bueno Silva has solid power, she lacks the striking volume and wrestling to score well in decisions, as she averages just 4.23 SSL/min. It would make all the sense in the world for Bueno Silva to try and take Lansberg down after watching Karol Rosa dominate her on the mat, but expecting Bueno Silva to make smart decisions is a lost cause. The only way we see Bueno Silva putting up a really big score here is if she gets a submission in the first 60 seconds, and as the most expensive fighter on the card it will be really tough for her to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply she has a 79% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Lansberg has also struggled to score well in DFS throughout her career and is now 40 years old. She hasn’t won a fight since 2019 and hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016, prior to joining the UFC. The only reasons to consider her in tournaments are her low ownership, her cheap price tag, and her ability to land elbows out of the clinch that could always force a flukey doctor stoppage. She’s a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel as she racks up a ton of control time and clinch strikes, but unless she lands a finish or completely dominates this fight, she’s unlikely to score very well on either site. The odds imply she has a 21% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Nazim Sadykhov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a third round knockout win on DWCS, Sadykhov has won seven straight fights since losing his pro debut. He’s only been to one decision in his career, but four of last five fights have seen the third round. He came out firing on DWCS, landing an immediate spinning back kick and then beating up his opponent on the mat for most of the round. He looked a little less explosive in round two, before digging deep and landing a violent third round knockout. That was his fourth straight finish, with three of those ending in round three.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Sadykhov has five wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and one decision victory. Three of his finishes came in round one, with the other three ending in round three. The only loss of his career was a first round submission in his 2018 pro debut. Sadykhov hasn’t fought much in the way of competition and his first six pro opponents had six combined pro wins between them. Sadykhov’s last three wins came against an opponent making his pro debut, a guy in the midst of a four fight losing streak, and an Afghan war refugee.
Overall, Sadykhov looks well rounded with dangerous striking and decent wrestling. His takedown defense has looked really solid, at least against the lower level of competition he’s been facing. Sadykhov said he started training karate as a kid before moving onto Combat Sambo, Judo, and kickboxing. He has a shorter 69” reach, so it will be interesting to see how he fairs against higher level strikers who can stay on the outside. He’s also struggled with being controlled at times, and even an opponent making his pro debut was able to control Sadykhov for extended periods of time along the fence in his third most recent fight. Sadykhov looks like a promising young talent, but he still needs to clean some things up if he wants to make a run in the UFC.
Evan Elder
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Elder will be looking to bounce back from his first career loss, which occurred in his recent short notice UFC debut that he took up a weight class and on just four days’ notice. Prior to that he had won his first seven pro fights and had knocked out his last two opponents. In a recent interview Elder talked about his debut and said when he got the call to fight at 170 lb he had been preparing for a fight at 155 lb and actually only weighed 172 lb at the time. He said he actually tried to gain some immediate weight to be as big as possible for the fight, but the whole week was a whirlwind and by the time he actually got in the Octagon he had an adrenaline dump that made it tough to really perform. With all things considered he still didn’t look completely terrible in the fight, but was clearly undersized and not fully prepared to face a larger grappler like Parsons.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Elder has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and two decision victories. His first four finishes all came in the first round, while his last was a third round TKO. His only career loss came in his recent decision defeat in his UFC debut. Four of his last five fights have seen the third round, with three going the distance. Elder hasn’t faced the toughest competition, and only two of his seven career wins came against opponents with winning records. His last win was against a 9-16 opponent. Elder made his 2018 pro debut at 170 lb and landed a first round knockout, but then immediately dropped down to 155 lb for his last six fights, before taking his UFC at 170 lb. He’ll now be dropping back down to 155 lb.
Overall, Elder is a durable striker who will occasionally mix in takedowns, but is more often looking to keep fights standing. He’s been training at Kill Cliff FC (formerly known as Sanford MMA), so he has a good team around him and is still just 25 years old and should constantly be improving. We expect to see a much better version of Elder here in his second UFC appearance and back at his normal weight class.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Elder will have a 3” reach advantage.
This looks like a fun fight between two young prospects who both have good striking. Sadykhov looks like the better wrestler, but we’ll see if the fight even hits the mat. While Elder got taken down four times in his debut up a weight class, his takedown defense at 155 lb has looked pretty decent. Elder also talked about really working on his overall game, so it’s possible we see him look for more takedowns than he has in the past. While recency bias will drive the line in Sadykhov’s favor, we expect to see a significantly better version of Elder here compared to what we saw in his debut, and love this as a bounceback spot for him, albeit not in an easy matchup. Give us Elder by decision here, despite the line moving heavily against him.
Our favorite bet here is “Elder DEC” at +420.
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DFS Implications:
Sadykhov’s recent third round knockout win on DWCS would have been good for 92 DraftKings points and 94 points on FanDuel, but he only landed 53 significant strikes in the fight and never attempted a takedown. That’s not overly encouraging for his chances of scoring particularly in decisions moving forward or even with third round finishes. That’s somewhat concerning considering four of his last five fights have made it to the third round. While six of his seven career wins have come early, three of his last four finishes ended in round three. He also hasn’t been facing very tough competition and his third most recent fight was against an opponent making his pro debut. And even in that fight, Sadykhov spent extended periods of time getting controlled along the fence, so he clearly has things he needs to work on. Now he’ll be making his UFC debut against the toughest opponent he’s ever faced and it wouldn’t be surprising if Sadykhov struggled here. Whether he does or not, he still has potential moving forward and is only 28 years old. Sadykhov will either need a finish in the first two rounds or a dominant grappling performance to score well, both of which are unlikely as Elder has never been finished and has a decent takedown defense. The odds imply Sadykhov has a 64% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Elder couldn’t have asked for a much tougher spot to make his debut as he took that fight up a weight class on just a few days’ notice. Now he’s dropping back down to 155 lb with a full camp to prepare and we expect to see a much better version of him. He’ll also get to take on a UFC newcomer who hasn’t faced much in terms of competition, but has all the hype around him as he comes in on a seven fight winning streak with six of those wins coming early. Elder was coincidentally also on a seven fight winning streak when he lost his debut and streaks are made to be broken. We expect Elder to be the more prepared of the two fighters in this matchup and like his chances of outlanding his way to victory, most likely in a decision. While he’s unlikely to put up a big score without a finish, at his cheap price tag he could still serve as value play even in a decision win. Elder should also come in low owned following his recent loss, which further adds to his tournament appeal. The odds imply Elder has a 36% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Alexander Hernandez
11th UFC Fight (5-5)Looking to quickly bounce back from a December second round TKO loss to Billy Quarantillo, Hernandez stepped into this fight on just nine days’ notice. After moving down to 145 lb for his last fight, he’ll now be going back up to 155 lb for this match. He’s been finished in the second round of his last two fights and has lost three of his last four. Hernandez has really struggled with consistency since joining the UFC in 2018 and the only time he’s won two fights in a row was in his first two matches with the organization. He’s 2-4 in his last six fights with the two wins coming in first round knockouts against a short notice debuter in Mike Breeden and a low-level opponent who hadn't fought in two and a half years in Chris Gruetzemacher. Four of Hernandez’s five UFC losses have occurred in the second round, with three knockouts and one submission. He also lost a pure striking battle decision against grappler Thiago Moises.
Now 13-6 as a pro, Hernandez has six wins by KO, two by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once, and has two decision losses. All four of his early losses occurred in the second round, while seven of his eight early wins ended in round one.
Overall, Hernandez was a high school wrestler and is a BJJ brown belt. He only averages 4.09 SSL/min and has never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a fight. He has also only landed a takedown in 3 of his 10 UFC matches, but landed multiple in all three of those fights. On the other side of things, Hernandez has been taken down 7 times on 18 opponent attempts (61% defense). All of Hernandez’s UFC fights fall into one of three categories: first round knockout wins (3-0), second round early losses (0-4), or lower volume decisions (2-1).
Jim Miller
41st UFC Fight (24-15, NC)Miller recently put the Cowboy out to pasture with a second round submission. Cerrone stepped in on just nine days’ notice after three straight bookings with Joe Lauzon fell through, which resulted in the fight against Miller taking place at 170 lb, which is the only time in his neverending career that Miller has competed up at Welterweight. Miller had originally been set to face Booby Green there before Green failed a drug test and was pulled from the card. And speaking of late opponent changes, Miller had been set to face Gabriel Benitez on this card, but Benitez dropped out and Alexander Hernandez was announced as the replacement, also just nine days out. Prior to the win over Cerrone, Miller knocked out a couple of debuting fighters in the second round and has now finished three straight opponents in round two.
Now 35-16 as a pro, Miller has six wins by KO, 19 by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has 11 decision losses. His last three losses have all gone the distance, and he’s lost the last six decisions he’s been to. The last time he was finished was in a 2018 first round submission against Charles Oliveira. The only two fighters to ever knock Miller out are Dan Hooker (2018) and Donald Cerrone (2014). While his last three wins all ended in round two, his four victories prior to that all came by first round submission and his last seven wins have all come in the first two rounds. The last time he won a decision was in 2016. Impressively, 16 of his 24 UFC victories have come early, including 10 in the first round, four in round two, and two in round three.
Overall, Miller is a high level grappler and BJJ black belt, who surprisingly landed two straight knockouts in his last few fights after only landing four in his first 48 pro matches. Just keep in mind both of those came against guys making their UFC debuts. Miller doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, averaging just 2.79 SSL/min in his career, while tacking on 1.6 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He’s been pretty durable, and hasn’t been finished in any of his last nine fights since getting submitted by Oliveira back in 2018.
Fight Prediction:
Hernandez will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is nine years younger than the 39-year-old Miller.
Hernandez has basically been a walking R1 KO or bust prop for his entire UFC career and fades after the first round when pressured. His desperate attempt to move down to 145 lb didn’t help him any and according to him the dramatic weight cut even broke his dick (watch his media day interview if you don’t believe us). Considering Hernandez took this fight on just nine days’ notice, we’re not expecting his cardio to look any better here and if he’s unable to knock Miller out in the first round, which few have been able to do, we expect Hernandez to slow down in round two and likely get finished once again. Give us Miller by second round submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Miller R2” at +1100.
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DFS Implications:
Hernandez has more or less been a bipolar R1 KO or bust play in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 108, 112, and 128 in his three R1 KO wins, but just 41 and 93 points in his two decision victories. Now he’s stepping in on nine days’ notice and facing a savvy veteran who’s only been knocked out twice in 52 pro fights. Despite the unfavorable circumstances, Hernandez was installed as a large favorite by the oddsmakers and is accordingly priced in DFS. He seems overpriced in both markets and we’ll be looking to attack him opposed to play him here. We don’t see Hernandez cracking tournament winning lineups unless he knocks Miller out in round one, which leaves everything pretty straightforward here. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Miller is coming off three straight second round finishes that were good for 89, 100, and 103 DraftKings points. His four wins prior to that all ended in first round submissions, scoring 95, 116, 104, and 102 points. You have to go all the way back to 2016 to find his last decision victory, but it scored just 76 points, and his one prior to that scored just 66. He’s since lost the last six decisions he’s been to and he generally relies on finishes to both win fights and score well in DFS. Miller only averages 2.79 SSL/min and hasn’t landed more than two takedowns in a fight since 2016, which makes it tougher for him to put up really big scores even when he does get a finish. The only time he’s topped 108 DraftKings points in his 24 UFC wins was when he submitted Clay Guida in 58 seconds in 2019 and was awarded the Quick Win Bonus. However, at his cheap price tag we don’t need a massive score out of Miller to be useful, so he has a much wider range of acceptable outcomes. We like his chances of finishing Hernandez in the second round and scoring enough to crack winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 33% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
William Knight
7th UFC Fight (3-3)This matchup had been scheduled for November 19th before being rescheduled for this card, so these two have had plenty of time to prepare for one another.
Knight will be moving back down to Light Heavyweight after ballooning up to 251 lb for his last match, where he got finished in the third round by Devin Clark, who also normally competes at Light Heavyweight. Prior to that, Knight took on Maxim Grishin in a fight that was booked at 205 lb, but Knight showed up weighing 218 lb. The commission allowed the fight to go despite Knight missing weight by the equivalent of a small child and Grishin proceeded to defeat Knight in a slow paced decision. The last time Knight won a fight was in a close/controversial, slow-paced 2021 decision against Alonzo Menifield. That came just after Knight notched his lone early win in the UFC, when he knocked out UFC newcomer Fabio Cherant in the first round. Cherant is now 0-3 in the UFC and has looked terrible. Five of Knight’s six UFC fights have made it to the third round, with four going the distance. Knight had to go on DWCS twice to secure a UFC contract, despite landing a third round TKO in his first appearance on the show. He then knocked Cody Brundage out in the first round in his second appearance on the show to win a contract, although he nearly got finished himself in that fight.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Knight has nine wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. Six of his nine finishes have come in round one, one ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He also has two TKO losses (R1 & R3) and two decision defeats. While Knight doesn’t have any submission wins as a pro, he did have three as an amateur and will occasionally look for submissions. He’s just yet to land one—probably because he can’t fit his forearm under anyone’s chin.
Overall, Knight has a wrestling background, where he was a state champion in high school. However, despite already being 34 years old, Knight only started his pro MMA career in 2018 and only started fighting as an amateur back in 2016. While it doesn’t take a genius to tell he’s strong and can do damage with his striking, he only averages 2.95 SSL/min and has only once landed more than 38 significant strikes in a UFC fight, which was when he landed 55 against Menifield. Between his six UFC fights and two DWCS appearances, Knight has landed 11 of his 29 takedown attempts (44.8% accuracy), but has only landed more than one takedown in one of his last five fights. He can be too reliant on waiting to land one perfect bomb on the feet and seems too muscular for his own good when it comes to fighting. After looking terrible in his last two fights, it will be interesting to see how he looks back down at 205 lb, assuming he successfully makes the cut. Obviously he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on at weigh-ins as he attempts to cut 45 lb from the last time we saw him.
Marcin Prachnio
7th UFC Fight (2-4)After getting knocked out in the first round in each of his first three UFC fights, Prachnio has now seen the second round in three straight fights, with two of those going the distance (1-1). He saved his career with a close 2021 decision win over Khalil Rountree and then capitalized on a free square matchup against Ike Villanueva with a second round knockout win from a body kick. However, Prachnio’s luck finally ran out most recently when he lost a grappling-heavy decision to Philipe Lins, where he was taken down by Lins four times on 11 attempts and controlled for nearly five and a half minutes.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Prachnio has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and three decision victories. All but one of his finishes came prior to joining the UFC and we’ve yet to ever see him finish a UFC caliber opponent. Eleven of his 12 finishes came in round one, with the other ending in the opening minute of round two. He’s also been knocked out four times and has two decision defeats. Three of his KO losses also occurred in round one, with the other ending in round three against Aleksandar Rakic in 2014 before they both joined the UFC.
Overall, Prachnio is a pure striker and has never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. He doesn’t have crazy power, but likes to throw a good amount of kicks. His durability is obviously one of his biggest issues and he’s very prone to getting knocked out. He’s been taken down six times on 13 opponent attempts (53.8% defense) and all three opponents who have tried to take him down have been successful.
Fight Prediction:
Prachnio will have a 5” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Prachnio has made some improvements over the course of his UFC career, but is still a low-level fighter with durability concerns and a bad takedown defense. Neither one of those are what you want when you’re facing a powerhouse wrestler like Knight. While Knight looked terrible in his last two fights, those were much tougher matchups for him to find success and now he finally gets a favorable matchup. Prachnio will have to respect the takedown threat of Knight, which may leave his chin exposed for Knight to knock him out early. And if Prachnio instead focuses on keeping his chin safe, then Knight should be able to take him down and control him on the mat. Neither one of these two have the best cardio, so things could get sloppy in the later rounds if it lasts that long. We like Knight’s chances of knocking Prachnio out, most likely in the first round, but it’s also possible he grinds out a decision on the mat.
Our favorite bet here is Knight’s ML at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Knight has shown a somewhat safe but entirely unspectacular floor in his two UFC decision wins (79 & 86 DraftKings points), but only put up a usable score in his lone UFC finish (106 points). He finally gets an easier matchup here against an opponent with suspect chin and bad takedown defense, so despite how bad Knight looked in his last two fights this looks like a good bounceback spot. He was also finally able to get back down to 206 lb, so perhaps whatever issues he had been dealing with have finally been resolved. We’re generally not overly excited about playing Knight in DFS due to his lack of activity and high ownership, but we’ll bet against Prachnio until the end of time—or at least until the UFC cuts him following two more losses. The odds imply Knight has a 52% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Prachnio has put up one usable score in six UFC appearances, and that came against human punching bag Ike Villanueva so it should include an asterisk on his DraftKings scoresheet. His lone decision victory with the organization was only good for 72 DraftKings points and now he’ll be facing a powerful wrestler who will constantly be looking to knock him out and/or take him down. Prachnio adds nothing in terms of grappling, has a poor takedown defense, and a suspect chin. He’ll be reliant on landing a hail mary knockout to score well and the last time he finished anybody not named Ike Villanueva was in 2017 in a fight that took place at 185 lb. Due to their midrange price tags, much of the field will feel compelled to play one of these two fighters, but if you want to fade Knight you’d be better off fading this fight as a whole than playing Prachnio. The odds imply Prachnio has a 48% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Jamal Pogues
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a decision win on DWCS at Heavyweight, Pogues had originally been scheduled to make his UFC debut at Light Heavyweight against Tafon Nchukwi, but ended up withdrawing. Now he’ll be debuting at Heavyweight instead. Prior to going on DWCS in 2022 at Heavyweight he had competed at Light Heavyweight in his previous three fights. The first of those three was also on DWCS back in 2019, after he competed at Heavyweight for the first time in his career earlier that year. While Pogues won his first Heavyweight fight, it’s important to point out that it came against an opponent who was making his pro debut, is now 0-4, and who dropped down to 205 lb for his next fight and then all the way down to 185 lb for the one after that.
In his first DWCS appearance, Pogues landed 7 of his 11 takedown attempts and won a unanimous 30-27 decision, but was not awarded a UFC contract. He then got submitted in the fourth round of his next fight before winning a decision in September 2020. Following that win he took 23 months off before moving back up to Heavyweight for his last fight on DWCS. It’s worth pointing out that Pogues’ recent opponent on DWCS was not a real Heavyweight (6’0”, 221 lb), who had fought all the way down at 170 lb back in 2017. We saw less grappling from Pogues in that recent fight, as he failed to land his only two takedown attempts, and he also got outlanded on the feet in each of the first two rounds before finally turning it on in round three. Pogues got his lead leg chewed up throughout the fight as he absorbed 46 leg strikes, and it didn’t look like his calves got the memo he was planning on moving up to Heavyweight based on their size. Pogues was content with throwing out a single punch at a time while eating the calf kicks in what was a very lackluster fight. That performance was less impressive than his first trip on DWCS, but contracts are handed out more liberally these days, and the UFC still brought him on despite the lackluster performance. Pogues’ last three wins have all come by decision, and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2019 when he knocked out an opponent making his pro debut.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Pogues has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and four decision wins. His only KO/TKO loss came in the second round of his 2016 pro debut, which took place at 185 lb, while he’s been submitted in the later rounds of his other two losses, which both took place at 205 lb. Pogues has one fight at 185 lb (2016 R2 KO L), nine fights at Light Heavyweight (7-2), and two fights at Heavyweight (2-0). Only four of Pogues’ nine pro wins came against opponents with winning records, with all four of those wins going the distance. His five finishes came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 1-2, 0-0, 0-1, and 0-0.
Overall, Pogues is a BJJ brown belt and started training jiu-jitsu as a teenager. He’s only fought once in the last 29 months, which ended in a close decision, so it’s tougher to fully know what we can expect out of him—especially with just 2 of his 12 pro fights taking place at Heavyweight. Not to mention, both of his Heavyweight fights came against low-level, undersized opponents, who are not real Heavyweights. After Pogues last fight he said his plan was to move back down to Light Heavyweight and he actually had a fight booked at Light Heavyweight in December. However, he pulled out of that match citing he just wasn’t properly prepared with everything going on in his life. Then he was rebooked for this card, but at Heavyweight. Pogues did say at media day that he’s gotten much leaner since his DWCS match, but now plans on staying at Heavyweight so he’s reversed course over the last few months. He’s shown the ability to grapple when he wants to, but was reluctant to wrestle in his last match, which makes it tougher to know what to expect out of him at Heavyweight moving forward. He looked massively out of shape for his last match where he weighed in at 248.5 lb, so it will be important to monitor him closely on the scale.
Josh Parisian
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Parisian had been scheduled to face Chase Sherman back on November 5th, but ended up pulling out of the fight the day of the event due to health concerns.
Coming off a career saving win, Parisian kept his UFC hopes alive with a second round TKO win over a terrible Alan Baudot (0-4 in the UFC), after Parisian started off 1-2 in the UFC. Prior to that ground and pound victory, Parisian got absolutely dominated on the mat against another low-level Heavyweight in a recent third round TKO loss to Don'Tale Mayes. We also saw Parisian get beat up on the mat by Parker Porter in a decision loss in his UFC debut, so it’s been an ongoing issue for him. Following the loss in his debut, Parisian won a close split decision against Roque Martinez, who went 0-3 in the UFC before being cut. That sloppy split-decision win could have gone either way, but you don’t need to take our word for it. In his post fight interview, Michael Bisping asked Parisian, “How confident were you that you would get the decision?” Parisian responded, “Uhhhhh…I’ll be honest, I wasn’t super confident. I thought I worked really hard. But I wasn’t sure because of the cage control. Sometimes he had…I think he had me on the wall more. And then when I did have him on the wall he was punching me in the face.” To which Bisping responded, “Yeah he definitely punched you in the face a few times.” Parisian initially tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but despite landing a first round KO he didn’t get a contract. Following that initial appearance on DWCS, Parisian took a shot at The Ultimate Fighter. However, he didn’t last long as he was knocked out in the second round of what counted as an exhibition match so it doesn’t show up on his pro record. He returned to DWCS in 2020 and landed another first round KO, which that time was enough to get him a contract.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Parisian has 11 wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. Eight of his knockouts have come in round one, while the other three ended in round two. Both of his submission wins came in the second round in his first four pro fights (2015 & 2016). Both of his career decision wins have been split/majority. He’s been knocked out twice (R2 2017 & R3 2021), submitted once (R1 2019), and has two decision losses (2015 & 2020). Prior to making his 2020 UFC debut, he hadn’t required the judges in 10 straight fights (8-2), with eight of those fights ending in round one and two in round two. He’s now alternated wins and losses for his last five fights and is coming off a win.
Overall, Parisian is a large low-level Heavyweight, who gasses out later in fights, throws sloppy punches, and is terrible off his back. For what it’s worth, he claims to be in the best shape of his life, but that’s what they all say. He tends to mix in more kicks than most Heavyweights, but by no means is a great kicker. He’s been taken down 8 times on 14 attempts (42.9% defense) in his four UFC fights and two DWCS appearances. He’s landed four takedowns of his own on 13 attempts (30.8% accuracy) in those six fights, with all of those attempts coming in his last three fights as he’s begun to mix in more wrestling lately. He also averages 4.97 SSL/min and 5.11 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Parisian will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also six years older than the 27-year-old Pogues.
This sets up as a low-level Heavyweight fight that could go a lot of ways. Parisian narrowly defeated two of his fellow bottom rung Heavyweights, while losing to two other seat warmers. He’s begun to mix in more wrestling, but certainly isn’t a good wrestler and Pogues is the superior grappler, at least going off his Light Heavyweight tape. Neither guy has much power compared to your typical Heavyweight, nor has either man looked like much of a submission threat. So if this does end early it will likely be because someone gasses out (most likely Parisian) and simply can’t continue. With that said, there’s a good chance it goes the distance, especially if the fight stays standing. Parisian’s last two fights have both ended via ground and pound (1-1), but both of those wins came through attrition opposed to big concussive blows, and we’d be surprised if this ended in the first round. If Pogues comes in looking to wrestle and is able to push the pace, he may be able to find a late second or third round finish, but it’s more likely he wins by decision. Either way, we’re taking Pogues here.
Our favorite bet here is “Jamal Pogues R3 or DEC” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Pogues’ recent decision win only would have scored 58 points on DraftKings and 61 on FanDuel. He only landed 69 SS strikes in the fight and failed to complete either of his two takedown attempts and overall looks worse at Heavyweight than he did at Light Heavyweight. He claimed to be in better shape for this matchup, but actually weighed a pound heavier despite initially planning on moving back down to Light Heavyweight. This leaves him as somewhat of a wildcard, as most of his career has been spent at Light Heavyweight. He hasn’t put up the striking numbers to score well in a decision and hasn’t finished anybody since 2019, which was against an opponent making his pro debut. ItIt’s entirely possible he’ll mix in more wrestling here, which will both increase his chances for finding a finish and of scoring well even if he doesn’t. However, if that doesn’t happen he’ll likely be a massive bust. Working in his favor, he did say he had planned on wrestling more in his last fight, so it’s at least part of his normal game plan. Parisian also has just a 42% takedown defense and lost both of his UFC fights where he got taken down. That leaves Pogues with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes, making him a fine tournament play but a tougher guy to trust in cash and small field contests. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Parisian is coming off a massive scoring performance where he scored 119 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel in a second round ground and pound finish in a dream matchup against an undersized fraudulent Heavyweight in Alan Baudot. Now Parisian faces a tougher matchup against an opponent with a grappling background, and this will be a much tougher spot for Parisian to find the same success on the mat. Parisian is not a good fighter and has a limited gas tank and only scored 79 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win. While Pogues hasn’t spent much time at Heavyweight, his only knockout loss occurred in his 2016 pro debut, and he doesn’t appear overly prone to getting knocked out. However, the fact that he’s spent most of his career at Light Heavyweight does add a good amount of uncertainty to this matchup, which widens the range of potential outcomes. Pogues’ last fight was slower paced and his cardio wasn’t really tested, so it’s always possible we see him gas out in a more uptempo matchup with all the extra weight he’s carrying. However, barring a complete collapse from Pogues, we don’t have much confidence in Parisian winning or scoring well and his most likely path to victory is a close, lower scoring decision even if he can pull off the upset. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 15Y% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Zac Pauga
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Pauga is moving back down to 205 lb after going up to Heavyweight for a year when he went on The Ultimate Fighter. That experiment ended with a second round KO loss against a suspect Mohammed Usman in the finale of the show. The punch that knocked Pauga out appeared to have very little behind it and makes you wonder about his chin moving forward. Pauga’s last fight at 205 lb was in October 2021 against Markus Perez—a career 185er who had just been cut by the UFC following three straight losses. Despite moving up to 205 lb for the first and only time in his career, Perez showed up to the fight five pounds overweight. Perez was able to take Pauga down multiple times in the first round and control him, but then slowed down in round two and barely did anything for the rest of the fight, allowing Pauga to come back and win a decision. It was a poor showing from both fighters in a very uneventful match. That was Pauga’s third straight decision win and fourth in his first five pro fights.
Now 5-1 as a pro not counting his two exhibition wins on TUF, Pauga has one TKO win, which occurred in the first round of his second pro fight against an opponent who also only had one pro fight to his name. Pauga’s other four official wins all ended with the judges. He did land another knockout on TUF, along with another decision win, but he also fought a pig farmer and a welder so take those results with a grain of salt. Pauga’s only career loss was his recent R2 KO against Mohammed Usman. Pauga competed at Heavyweight as an amateur, but dropped down to Light Heavyweight in his 2020 pro debut, where he fought his first five pro fights. He then returned to Heavyweight so he could compete on the show, but said from the beginning that his plan was always to move back down to Light Heavyweight after the show.
Overall, Pauga is not a very impressive talent, but is somewhat athletic and had decent speed at Heavyweight. He trains with guys like Curtis Blaydes at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, but his cardio didn’t actually look great in his first TUF fight and his second appearance on the show ended early in round two before his cardio could even be tested. Pauga was briefly signed at fullback by the Houston Texans back in 2011, but never saw any game action in the NFL and then tried his hand in rugby before pursuing a career in law enforcement. He then turned pro in MMA in July 2020, just two and a half years ago, and got a late start in his MMA career considering he’s already 34 years old. In a recent interview, Pauga said he wants to push Wright up against the cage and grind on him, so it should come to no one’s surprise that Pauga’s main training partner for this fight was Devin Clark.
Jordan Wright
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Moving up to 205 lb following three straight early losses at 185 lb, Wright is coming off a second round TKO defeat against Dusko Todorovic. Wright started strong in that match, landing three takedowns in the first round with nearly four and a half minutes of control time. However, Wright gassed out following the round of wrestling and Todorovic poured it on in round two before eventually finishing Wright with ground and pound just over three minutes into the round. Prior to that loss, Wright got submitted in the first round by Marc-Andre Barriault in another fight where Wright looked to wrestle more than he had previously. Wright’s current losing streak started with a R1 TKO loss against Bruno Silva, after Wright started off 2-1 in the UFC with a pair of R1 TKO wins against Ike Villanueva and Jamie Pickett and a R2 KO loss against Joaquin Buckley.
Now 12-4 plus a No Contest as a pro, Wright has seven wins by KO and five by submission. Just keep in mind, he had one of the more padded records you’ll ever see before joining the UFC and his first eight pro opponents entered his fights with a mind numbing 1-38 combined record. He’s been knocked out three times and submitted once and has never been in a fight that lasted longer than nine minutes. In reality, he’s been knocked out four times, but one of those was overturned to a No Contest when Anthony Hernandez tested positive for THC following the 2018 DWCS match. All five of Wright’s submission wins have come in the first round, as have six of his seven KO victories, with the other ending in the opening minute of round two. He’s 1-2 in his only three fights that made it past the first round, with both of those matches ending in round two. Ten of his 17 pro fights (including the No Contest) have ended in 92 seconds or less and four have ended in under a minute. Wright has spent almost all of his career at 185 lb, but did make his short notice UFC debut up at 205 lb in August 2020 against Villanueva, before dropping back down to 185 lb for his next five fights. He also had one other career fight at 205 lb, which ended in a 2017 first round submission win. Both of his 205 lb fights ended in 92 seconds or less, so we haven’t seen how his cardio looks at the higher weight class.
Overall, Wright is the epitome of a kill or be killed fighter. He has a non-existent chin, no striking defense, poor boxing, and terrible cardio. He’s a karate brown belt and relies mostly on kicking and throwing knees out of the clinch to cause damage and can easily be overwhelmed if forced to stand and trade in a phone booth. After failing to land a takedown on just one attempt in his first four UFC fights and DWCS appearance, Wright landed five of his nine attempts in his last two matches and seems to be really trying to incorporate his grappling more now. We haven’t seen him get taken down yet in the UFC, as he’s successfully defended all six of the attempts against him. He likes to look for elbows when opponents try to take him down, which is what began the finishing sequence against Jamie Pickett. In a recent interview, Wright confirmed this is the final fight on his contract, so he’ll be fighting for his job. He also said that he’s hoping the move up to 205 lb will help with his cardio as he can spend less time focussing on the weight cut. He claimed he would be perfect for a 195 lb division, if one existed. It will be interesting to see if the weight change does have any effect on his historically terrible cardio and durability.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’2” but Wright will have a 1” reach advantage and is three years younger than the 34-year-old Pauga.
This can only be described as a low-level MMA fight that has no business being the co-main event on any card. Both guys are coming off R2 KO/TKO losses and switching weight classes, with Pauga moving down from Heavyweight and Wright moving up from Middleweight. On the surface, that seemingly creates a size mismatch, however, Pauga is a career Light Heavyweight who only moved up to Heavyweight to be on the The Ultimate Fighter and Wright has had a couple of fights at Light Heavyweight in the past. Pauga carries more weight in his midsection, which is basically the only size difference between the two. However, in terms of fighting style they couldn’t be any more different. Pauga looks to slow fights down, grind opponents against the cage, and mix in takedowns to keep the opposition guessing. Pauga has only been in one career fight that ended in the first round, with four of his six matches going the distance. Meanwhile, Wright has never been past the second round and 11 of his 12 career wins have ended in round one. He historically gasses out in fights that last longer than 5-6 minutes, but said he hopes that not cutting as much weight will help with his cardio. Wright has been mixing in more wrestling in his last couple of fights, but that resulted in him gassing out hard in his last match, so it will be interesting to see if he continues to look to grapple here.
Both fighters have shown poor chins, so we could see the first one to land something really clean knock the other out. However, Pauga said he plans on grinding Wright up against the cage to try and drag him into deep waters and test his cardio. That creates the potential for Wright to look for knees out of the Thai clinch—one of his favorite attacks—if he can create just a little separation in the clinch exchanges. However, if that doesn’t come to fruition, then Pauga’s plan of zapping Wright’s gas tank could end up being effective, giving Pauga a good shot at landing a second round knockout if Wright’s cardio hasn’t improved. This is one of those fights where we wish we could bet against both guys, as neither one of them belongs in the UFC. With so much uncertainty on either side, we’re much more inclined to bet on chaos with Wright at long odds than laying chalk on Pauga, but nothing would really surprise us here. Despite the fact that we’ve picked Wright to lose in all six of his UFC fights based on his non-existent striking defense/chin and five minute gas tank, we’ll go out on a limb and say he saves his job with a first round finish in this one. However, if Pauga can survive the opening five minutes, then look for him to win and it will be worth keeping an eye on his live line.
Our favorite bet here is “Wright Wins & Under 1.5” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Pauga is generally not a guy we’ll be looking to target in DFS as he doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, only sporadically mixes in takedowns, rarely finishes anybody, has a suspect chin, and overall is not a very talented fighter. However, there’s never been a Jordan Wright fight that we didn’t want heavy exposure to as he’s still never been past the second round in his career and rarely makes it out of round one. The only problem with Pauga here is that he’s the third most expensive fighter on the slate and has said his plan will be to grind Wright up against the cage and try to test his cardio by taking him into the later rounds. While we normally don’t put a ton of stock into things fighters say going into fights, when a guy tells you he’s going to try and intentionally slow down/ruin a fight, it’s at least worth taking notice. However, there’s no guarantee that he will be effective in controlling Wright along the cage or even if that will actually be his game plan come fight day. With that said, if we see a slower paced first round and then Pauga lands a later round finish, that may not be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups at his price. That lowers our interest in him some, but it’s still entirely possible he scores well here in what has historically been a very fantasy friendly matchup. The fact that he’s coming down from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight also adds some uncertainty to how this fight plays out, but he has notably spent most of his career at Light Heavyweight. The odds imply Pauga has a 70% chance to win, a 54% chance to land a finish, and a 33% chance it comes in round one.
Wright has been a DFS gold mine when it comes to looking for fights to target. He put up DraftKings scores of 112 and 108 in his two wins, while his opponents returned totals of 106, 101, 109, and 114 in his four losses. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than nine minutes and has a glass chin. He’s looked to wrestle more in his last two fights, but still got finished in both of those matches and has now lost three straight. He will be fighting for his job here as he’s on the final fight of his contract and will also be moving up to 205 lb, where he also made his short notice UFC debut. Both of those add some uncertainty, but he said he hopes not having to cut as much weight will help with his terrible cardio. It will be interesting to see if he fights a little more tentatively, knowing that another loss will almost certainly result in him looking for a new job. Working in his favor, he’s taking on a pretty terrible opponent in Pauga, who recently got knocked out by a punch that looked like it had absolutely nothing behind it. So if Wright can catch him with one of his spinning kicks or with knees out of the Thai clinch, it’s very possible we see Wright find a finish. A submission win is also possible and Pauga’s takedown defense hasn’t been very good, while Wright has been looking to wrestle more in his last two fights. Just keep in mind, Wright is all offense and no defense. He’s incredibly prone to getting knocked out and also historically has terrible cardio, even if he claims to be working on that. That leaves him as a complete boom or bust play with a solid ceiling but a non-existent floor. The odds imply he has a 30% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Jessica Andrade
23rd UFC Fight (15-7)Andrade is stepping into this main event on just a week’s notice after torching Lauren Murphy for 15 straight minutes only four weeks ago. It’s amazing that Murphy was even able to survive to see the judge and that the fight was never stopped by either the ref or Murphy’s corner. Andrade landed 231 significant strikes on Murphy, the sixth most anyone has ever landed in a UFC fight, male or female, and the most any female has ever landed. Andrade’s previous five wins had all come early and that was just the second time she had required the judges in her last nine fights.
Before winning a decision over Murphy at 125 lb, Andrade dropped a weight class and submitted Amanda Lemos in the first round at 115lb. Leading up to that return to 115 lb, Andrade had three more fights at 125 lb, with a first round TKO over Cynthia Calvillo, a second round title fight TKO loss to Valentina Shevchenko, and a R1 KO win over Katlyn Chookagian, in what was Andrade’s first UFC fight at 125 lb. Prior to joining the 125 lb division, Andrade had competed at both 115 lb and 135 lb. Andrade previously held the 115 lb belt for a cup of coffee in 2019 when she knocked out Rose Namajunas by way of a slam the first time they fought. However, Andrade immediately relinquished the title when she got knocked out by Zhang Weili 42 seconds into her first title defense. Andrade then lost a three-round split decision in a rematch against Namajunas, before making the move up to 125 lb.
Now 24-9 as a pro, Andrade has nine wins by KO, eight by submission, and seven decisions. All 17 of her early wins have ended in the first two rounds, with five of her knockouts and six of her submissions ending in round one. Her other four knockouts and two submission wins ended in round two. Her last three and five of her last six early wins ended in the opening five minutes. Six of her nine career losses also come early, and also all in the first two rounds, with four TKOs and two submissions, while she also has three decision defeats. Her two submission losses (R1 & R2) both occurred in 2015 when she was still fighting at 135 lb. Two of her TKO defeats occurred early in her career in 2012 and 2013, while the other two were in title fights against Zhang Weili and Valentina Shevchenko. Three of those TKOs came in round two, while the other ended in round one.
While Andrade has gone just 4-3 in her last six fights, all of those losses came against current or former champions and she’s been dominating everyone else. Her only other loss since dropping down from 135 lb in 2016 was against another champion in Jedrzejczyk, and three of her four UFC losses at 115/125 lb have come in title fights and the other was against former/future champion Rose Namajunas in a top contender fight.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Andrade’s career. The first was a 2017 decision loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a 115 lb title fight. Then she won the 115 lb belt in a 2019 R2 KO by slam against Rose Namajunas. However, Andrade immediately lost the belt in her first defense when she got knocked out by Zhang Weili in just 42 seconds. Andrade then fought Shevchenko for the 125 lb belt in 2021 and lost via R2 ground and pound TKO. Andrade’s last five-round fight took place back down at 115 lb and ended in a first round submission win over Amanda Lemos, in what was the only five-round fight Andrade has ever been in where there wasn’t a title on the line. So overall, Andrade is 2-2 in five round fights at 115 lb and 0-1 at 125 lb. Her last four fights scheduled to go five rounds have all ended in under 10 minutes.
Overall, Andrade is an aggressive striker who constantly pushes forward looking to land fight ending shots and slam her opponents unconscious. She’s willing to take one to land one, which has gotten her into trouble at times, but only when facing elite competition. She struggles the most with longer opponents who have good footwork and can counter her from distance, while avoiding the shots coming from Andrande. She averages 6.80 SSL/min and 5.26 SSA/min. Andrade is also a BJJ black belt and has a 73% career takedown defense and in her 15 fights since dropping down from 135 lb, we’ve actually seen that number rise a little as she’s only been taken down on 9 of 40 opponent attempts (77.5% defense). That’s even more impressive when you realize that seven of those takedown landed were against Shevchenko, while the other two were by Tecia Torres. Andrade’s other 13 most recent opponents have failed to land any of their combined 31 attempts. And over that same 15 fight stretch, Andrade has landed 26 takedowns of her own on 49 attempts (53.1% accuracy).
Erin Blanchfield
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Blanchfield had been scheduled to face Taila Santos here, but Santos dropped out and Andrade was announced as the replacement a week out.
Fresh off a first round submission win over Molly McCann, Blanchfield has won seven straight fights, dating back to her Invicta days, and remains perfect in the UFC. After winning a pair of smothering decisions over Sarah Alpar and Miranda Maverick in her first two UFC matches, Blanchfield has now landed back-to-back submission victories, with the first of those coming in a second round guillotine against JJ Aldrich. Prior to joining the UFC, Blanchfield faced several opponents who also went on to join the UFC in Kay Hansen, Tracy Cortez, Victoria Leonardo, and Brogan Walker.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Blanchfield has two wins by KO, three by submission, and five decisions. Three of those finishes occurred in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. Her only career loss came in a 2019 split-decision against Tracy Cortez when they were still fighting with Invicta.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Blanchfield’s career, so she’s never been in a match that’s lasted longer than 15 minutes. That leaves some uncertainty surrounding her cardio in the championship rounds, but she hasn’t shown any cardio concerns recently, so we’re not too concerned.
Overall, Blanchfield is a BJJ black belt and relies largely on her grappling. However, she’s still just 23 years old and her striking continues to improve. She’s averaging a very respectable 5.79 SSL/min and just 2.45 SSA/min. She’s also landed 11 of her 16 takedown attempts (68.8% accuracy). Blanchfield has absolutely dominated three of her first four UFC opponents on the ground. The one time Blanchfield was unable to land takedowns, when she took on JJ Aldrich, Blanchfield was able to adjust mid fight and then lock up a standing guillotine choke. That was the only time Blanchfield has actually faced any adversity since joining the organization, but now she’ll face the toughest test of her career.
Fight Prediction:
Blanchfield will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage. She’s also eight years younger than the 31-year-old Andrade.
The UFC is not wasting any time pairing Blanchfield up with the top of the Women’s Flyweight division. After beating Molly McCann, who’s not even currently ranked, Blanchfield was immediately paired up against the #1 contender in Taila Santos. When Santos dropped out, the #3 ranked Andrade stepped in. Either way, this is a big step up in competition for Blanchfield, not that she’s been facing terrible opponents or anything. We’ve seen Blanchfield defeat one-dimensional strikers and grapplers in the UFC, as well as Miranda Maverick who’s somewhat more well-rounded. However, we haven’t seen Blanchfield have to deal with like Andrade who in addition to her devastating striking is also a dangerous BJJ black belt and has a solid 73% takedown defense. Since dropping down from 135 lb, Andrade has gone 11-4 with all four losses coming against current or former champions.
The only opponent to take Andrade down in her last nine fights is Shevchenko, who was able to land all seven of her attempts before finishing Andrade on the mat in the second round. Andrade was able to bounce back to her feet on the first few takedowns in that fight, but we saw that explosiveness quickly fade under the pressure of Shevchenko, and now Andrade is stepping into this next fight on just a week’s notice. Obviously the loss to Shevchenko was against the best 125 lb female fighter in the world, but it presents a road map for how Blanchfield wins this fight. So even if Blanchfield can’t initially control Andrade on the mat, we expect her to continue to find more success as the fight goes on. Blanchfield is the larger fighter, which is promising for her top control potential, especially once Andrade’s initial explosive begins to fade some. While Andrade is always live to land early finishes, typically with blitzing first round knockouts, she typically needs to be the aggressor to win fights. If Blanchfield can take the fight to her and force her to wrestle defensively and expend energy trying to get off her back, we expect it to quickly wear on Andrade, especially considering how little time Andrade had to prepare for this matchup. We like Blanchfield’s chances to not only pull off the upset, but to finish Andrade on the ground, most likely in the second round. Keep in mind when looking at her props, Blanchfield has the ability to finish opponents with ground and pound or submissions, and her recent submission victory easily could have ended as a TKO if the ref wasn’t so willing to let McCann eat an unlimited number of elbows and punches from the crucifix position.
Our favorite bet here is Blanchfield’s ML at +160.
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DFS Implications:
Andrade stepped into this main event spot on just a week’s notice and is only four weeks removed from a dominant decision win over Lauren Murphy. Andrade landed a ridiculous 231 significant strikes in that three-round match, which is the 6th most ever recorded in a UFC fight, the second highest total in a three-round match, and the most for any female UFC fighter, regardless of duration or weight class. That one-sided beatdown was good for 131 DraftKings points and 165 points on FanDuel, and since it was just four weeks ago you may remember that Andrade was our favorite play on the slate going in. However, Andrade faces a much tougher test here as she faces a surging young prospect who will be looking to take her down and limit her ability to land strikes. The fact that Andrade had almost no time to prepare is also a major red flag, especially if this fight makes it past the first two rounds. All 17 of Andrade’s career finishes have come in the first two rounds, and if she’s unable to get Blanchfield out of there in the opening 10 minutes, we could see the lack of preparation time play a factor with her late round cardio. Despite this being the 6th five-round fight of Andrade’s career, she’s only been past the third round once, which ended in a one-sided 2017 decision loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Jedrzejczyk won every single round. So while we’re not saying Andrade can’t win a five-round decision, we are pointing out that she never has and didn’t train for five-rounds here. That will leave her more reliant than normal on finding a finish and Blanchfield has notably never been finished in her career, although she’s also never faced anyone like Andrade. We expect Andrade’s recent scoring explosion to drive her ownership up, despite taking this fight on short notice and the line moving in Blanchfield’s favor early in the week. That lowers Andrade’s tournament appeal to some extent, but we’ll never question her scoring ceiling and her aggressive fighting style is tailor-made for DFS, as she’s scored at least 100 DraftKings points in 12 of her 15 UFC wins. The odds imply she has a 59% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Blanchfield is coming off a dominant first round submission win over Molly McCann, where Blanchfield spent an extended period of time beating McCann up in a crucifix position before eventually locking up a submission. That finish was good for 124 DraftKings points and 131 points on FanDuel. Blanchfield has averaged 115 DraftKings points in her four UFC fights, and amazingly has scored 115 or more in three of those. Her only lower scoring performance was a second round standing guillotine submission where she failed to land any takedowns and scored “just” 95 DraftKings points. While Andrade has a really solid 73% takedown defense, Miranda Maverick entered her fight against Blanchfield with a 70% takedown defense and proceeded to get taken down seven times on eight Blanchfield attempts and controlled for 12 minutes in a 15 minute fight. If Blanchfield can find some early grappling success, we expect to see here quickly wear on Andrade’s gas tank, making later takedowns easier to come by and reducing Andrade’s explosiveness. That creates the potential for a dominant snowballing performance from Blanchfield, but late round cardio remains somewhat of a mystery for both of these two, as they’ve seen a total of one fourth round between them. Blanchfield’s past scoring success will keep her ownership relatively high for an underdog in this spot, but we love her chances of dominating this fight on the ground and putting up another huge score. The odds imply she has a 41% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Hernandez UNDER 95.5 Pts
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