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Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Rafael Estevam
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Attempting to make his UFC debut for the third time, Estevam was originally scheduled to appear inside the Octagon in April against Carlos Candelario, but Candelario dropped out. Then he was booked to fight Zhalgas Zhumagulov in May, but Estevam botched his weight cut and dropped out during weigh-ins. Now he’ll be hoping that the third time’s the charm as he tries again six months later. The last time Estevam competed was in a September 2022 R2 TKO win on DWCS, which is his only fight in the last 28 months. Prior to that, he landed another R2 ground and pound TKO with the LFA in July 2021, and three of his last four wins have come by TKO in the first two rounds.
Now 11-0 as a pro, Estevam has four wins by TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. One of his TKO wins ended in round one, his last two came in round two, and one ended in round three. All three of his submission wins also ended in the second round, so five of his seven finishes have come in round two.
Overall, Estevam is a dangerous Brazilian finisher with relentless pressure, who’s generally looking to take opponents down and wear them out on the mat. He has no problem going to the ground with grapplers and seems supremely confident in his own abilities, opposed to avoiding his opponents’ strengths. He trains at Nova Uniao, the same gym as Jose Aldo, so you know he has a good team around him, and he looks like he could be a real problem for a lot of guys at 125 lb, assuming he can make the weight. He landed two of his four takedown attempts on DWCS, with nearly seven minutes of control time in a fight that only lasted eight and a half minutes. After what happened at his last weigh-in, he’s definitely a guy to monitor on the scale.
UPDATE: Estevam missed weight by 2 lb!
Charles Johnson
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Coming off of two straight decision losses, Johnson recently lost every round of the fight against Cody Durden, who took Johnson down 11 times and controlled him for nine and a half minutes. Prior to that, Johnson lost a close split decision against Ode Osbourne, in a fight that Johnson accepted on short notice and had to travel around the world with a sinus infection to show up for, as he had been at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand when he got the offer. That came just after Johnson finished a terrible Jimmy Flick in the first round with ground and pound. After winning a split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Johnson lost another wrestling-heavy decision in his 2022 UFC debut against Muhammad Mokaev, so getting controlled on the ground has been a problem for him in the UFC. He was at least able to avoid getting submitted by the dangerous grappler in Mokaev and Johnson has shown at multiple points in his career the ability to survive against high-level grapplers, as he also went the distance against Brandon Royval in a 2018 decision loss. Following the loss to Royval, Johnson won four straight matches leading up to joining the UFC, with the last three of those wins coming in LFA Flyweight title fights.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Johnson has six wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. Three of his knockouts came in round one, two ended in round two, and one occurred in round five. Two of his three submission victories ended in round two, with the other ending in round one. He’s never been finished, with all five of his losses ending in decisions. Nine of his last 10 fights made it out of the first round, with seven of those seeing the third round, and two seeing the fifth round of LFA title fights. Four of his five UFC fights went the distance.
Overall, Johnson is an uptempo striker with a decent submissions defense but not very good defensive wrestling. That has resulted in him getting taken down and controlled a lot in the UFC, but never finished. In his five UFC fights, Johnson has only landed one takedown on seven attempts (14.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 28 of their 61 attempts (54.1% defense). He doesn’t appear to have a ton of power, but tends to wear on his opponents, with three of his last four finishes coming beyond the first round. Johnson is desperate for a win here to avoid a three fight losing streak.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while being five years older than the 27-year-old Estevam.
Estevam has looked good in the limited tape that’s out there on him, but he’s been so inactive that it’s hard to really gauge his current form. His habitual struggle on the scale is also concerning and it’s been over three years since he saw the third round, so who knows what his cardio will look like. He’s one of the biggest wild cards on the slate and the fact that he missed weight by two pounds is a big red flag. That could take its toll on both his cardio and his durability, increasing the chances that he gasses out late in this fight and/or gets finished. However, he has a smothering style and if he can avoid either of those fates, then this looks like a good stylistic matchup for him to find success getting Johnson down and controlling him. However, the fact that Estevam relies on his wrestling just adds to the concern of him gassing out following the tough weight cut. So this is a very volatile fight, but historically almost all of Johnson’s UFC fights go the distance and he lost all three of the decisions where he was taken down more than once. Estevam is 4-0 with the judges in his career, so if the weight miss doesn't play a factor, then he should have a good shot at winning here. Johnson has been so durable that we’d be more surprised to see Estevam find a finish, and we’ll tentatively say that Estevam wins by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Rafael Estevam DEC” at +155.
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DFS Implications:
Estevam’s aggressive approach to fighting paired with his relentless ground and pound looks like a potential DFS goldmine, especially on DraftKings. His second round TKO win on DWCS would have been good for 126 points on DraftKings and 116 points on FanDuel. However, he still needs to show that he can execute that gameplan at the UFC level, and there are also concerns surrounding his weight miss. While Johnson has been prone to getting taken down and controlled, he typically never stops working and has also never been finished. So Estevam better have 15 minutes of cardio in him, or else he could find himself in trouble late in this fight. And considering it’s been 14 months since Estevam last competed and he only has one fight in the last 28 months, it’s hard to know if we’ll see the same guy on Saturday that we saw in Estevam’s last two matches. So while he offers tons of upside, this is still a volatile matchup. However, if Estevam wins, he should score well and at his cheap price tag it will be tougher for him to get left out of winning lineups. The line has also moved considerably in his favor, leaving him underpriced on DraftKings. That value adds to his low-risk appeal, as does the fact that Johnson isn’t a huge finishing threat. The odds imply Estevam has a 58% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Johnson has only put up one useful DFS score in his five UFC appearances, which is when he finished Jimmy Flick with ground and pound in the first round and scored 114 DraftKings points. He only scored 83 points in his lone decision victory, and just 23 and 34 points in his recent two decision losses. This is a concerning matchup for him, as Johnson has really struggled against wrestlers and lost all three of the UFC fights where he was taken down more than once. Even if Johnson can win a decision, the potential for him to get controlled for periods of time lowers his scoring potential and he’ll likely need a finish to be useful. The odds imply Johnson has a 42% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Nikolas Motta
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Motta is coming off a violent R1 KO loss to Manuel Torres, who landed one of the cleanest step-in elbows you’ll ever see. Prior to that, Motta notched his only UFC win in a first round knockout against an absolutely terrible Cameron VanCamp, who’s been knocked out in the first round in both of his UFC fights. Leading up to that win, Motta got knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut against Jim Miller after winning a decision on DWCS to punch his ticket to the big show. Following his win on DWCS, Motta had been scheduled to make his UFC debut at three different points but all three matches got canceled and he ended up having to sit on the sidelines for 15 months. Motta went on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil back in 2015 when he was just 22 years old, but was submitted in the second round of his second fight and was relegated back to the regional scene. Eight of Motta’s last 10 fights ended in knockouts (4-4), with the other two going the distance (2-0).
Now 13-5 as a pro, Motta has nine wins by KO/TKO and four decisions. Seven of those knockouts ended in round one, one ended in round two, and the other came in round three. He’s notably the only fighter to ever finish Joe Solecki, which he did in the third round back in 2018. Motta has been finished in all five of his losses, with the last four of those ending in knockouts after he was submitted in the first defeat of his career. All five of those losses ended in under seven minutes, with three ending in under three minutes. After starting his pro career at 145 lb when he was just 18 years old, Motta moved up to 155 lb in 2015 when he went on TUF Brazil and never looked back. He also had a submission loss on TUF that doesn’t show up on his official record since those fights count as exhibition matches.
Overall, Motta is a one-dimensional striker who has decent power in his strikes but has proven himself to be chinny. He attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights or on DWCS, while only one was attempted against him during that stretch, which he successfully defended on DWCS. However, he doesn’t appear to offer anything in terms of offensive grappling. He only averages 3.40 SSL/min and he’s generally pretty patient with his striking as he relies more on damage than volume in his fights. Sitting on a 1-2 record, Motta is likely fighting for his job here.
Trey Ogden
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Also stepping into the final fight of his contract, Ogden is coming off a decision loss to a one-dimensional striker in Ignacio Bahamondes. Ogden looked like he was sleep walking through that fight after stepping in on short notice and somehow only attempted a single failed takedown despite holding the major grappling advantage. In fairness to Ogden, he had just cut weight two weeks prior, only to have the fight canceled during weigh-ins after his opponent (Manuel Torres) dropped out. Bahamondes easily outlanded Ogden 99-42 in striking, winning an uneventful decision. Prior to that, Ogden pulled off a major upset decision win where he entered as a +310 underdog, but outpointed his way to victory against a debuting Daniel Zellhuber. Ogden at least tried to get that fight to the ground, although wasn’t very successful as he only landed one of his nine attempts, with just 38 seconds of total control time. Just before that win, Ogden lost a split decision to Jordan Leavitt in his short notice UFC debut, after submitting three straight opponents in the first two rounds on the regional scene.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Ogden has 11 submission wins and five decision victories. He’s also been submitted three times himself and has three decision losses. Two of his three submission losses were by R1 guillotine against a suspect Thomas Gifford, who went 0-2 in the UFC. His other submission loss was a 2019 R1 rear-naked choke. No one has ever been knocked out in any of his fights. Five of Ogden’s last seven finishes occurred in the later rounds, with four ending in round two. While all three of his UFC fights went the distance, 9 of his previous 11 matches ended early.
Overall, the 33-year-old Ogden has shown some improvements to his striking, but still doesn't look very dangerous on the feet and has been content with point fighting lately. That was never his style on the regional scene, but maybe the pressure of opening up his own gym has resulted in him playing it safe to try and avoid looking foolish. In his three UFC fights, he landed just two of his 14 takedown attempts (14.2% accuracy), while he defended all three of the takedowns against him. He had been training at Glory MMA with James Krause for his entire career, and also was the jiu-jitsu coach there, so obviously there were a lot of changes for him when Glory got shut down. While we haven’t gotten to see much of his grappling lately he’s a BJJ black belt who’s dangerous on the mat and he claims we’re going to see the old version of him here as he fights for his job and also looks to at least put on one exciting performance before his days in the UFC are over. He seems very focussed coming into this fight and says he’s going to finish Motta, so at least he’s saying all the right things.
Fight Prediction:
Ogden will have a 2” height and reach advantage, while Motta is three years younger than the 33-year-old Ogden.
Both of these two will be fighting for their jobs as they’re each sitting on 1-2 records. Ogden has struggled against grapplers and taller opponents who throw a lot of kicks, while Motta has been very prone to getting finished. Motta is a shorter boxer with no grappling skills, so at least on paper this looks like a favorable matchup for Ogden. Motta has been especially prone to getting knocked out, but Ogden has never been in a fight where anyone got knocked out. Motta has also been submitted a couple of times, although one of those was in 2013 and the other was in 2015 on TUF Brazil and doesn’t even count towards his pro record. We’ve yet to see Motta have to operate on the mat in the UFC as no one has attempted any takedowns in any of his fights, but if Ogden can get this fight to the ground then he should have a massive advantage. And while Motta throws with more power, he’s also very chinny and Ogden has never been knocked out. So it’s not impossible that Ogden could notch his first career knockout here. He claims he’s going to be much more aggressive and finish Motta and he appears dead serious and focussed on putting on his best UFC performance to date. And even if he doesn’t get a finish, his combination of striking and grappling would give him a good shot at winning a decision. Both of Ogden’s UFC losses were in fights where he stepped in on short notice and he had a full camp to prepare for this one. So overall there are a lot of reasons to like Ogden and he has multiple paths to winning as a slight underdog. That makes it tougher to say exactly how he gets it done, but we like him to win and forced to choose we’ll say he locks up a submission to find his first UFC finish.
Our favorite bet here is “Trey Ogden ML” at +115.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Motta is a one-dimensional boxer with a suspect chin and all three of his UFC fights ended in knockouts in under a round and a half, with him losing two of those. His lone UFC win was a first round knockout of a terrible Cameron VanCamp, where Motta scored 110 DraftKings points. In each of his two losses, Motta scored single digit Draftkings points and his lack of durability leaves him with a non-existent scoring floor. His three losses before joining the UFC also all ended early, so this has always been a fundamental flaw of his. While he has decent power in his hands, Ogden has never been knocked out in his career and could be looking to grapple, which both lower Motta’s chances of landing the knockout he needs to score well. The last time Motta won a decision was on DWCS and he only would have scored 47 DraftKings points and 45 points on FanDuel in that low-volume win, a strong indicator that he’ll perpetually be a KO or bust play in DFS. The odds imply Motta has a 55% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Ogden has been a tail of two fighters over the course of his career. Prior to joining the UFC, he was an aggressive grappler who was constantly hunting for submissions and finishing opponents on the mat, with 11 career submission wins under his belt. However, over his last couple of matches he’s transitioned to a point fighting kickboxer. He’s said in multiple recent interviews that he intends to revert back to his more exciting style that got him to the UFC, as this could be the last fight of his career if he loses (or maybe even if he wins a boring decision) and he wants to let everyone know who he is. So he’s at least saying all the right things to give us reason to play him in DFS and this looks like a good matchup for him to land a finish, as Motta has been finished in all five of his pro losses and was also submitted another time on TUF Brazil. However, it does require a leap of faith to expect Ogden to look dramatically different/better after his last two snoozers, and he only scored 65 DraftKings points in his one UFC win. Even at his cheaper price tag, that’s not enough to be useful, so Ogden will either need a finish or a grappling-heavy decision to return value. Based on the matchup, the situation, and everything Ogden has been saying, we’re willing to take one last shot on him and go down with the ship if he fails. The odds imply Ogden has a 45% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Ailin Perez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off an absolutely dominant performance, Perez mauled Ashlee Evans-Smith for three rounds on her way to winning a 30-25 decision. Perez took Evans-Smith down 10 times with eleven and half minutes of control time, while finishing ahead in significant strikes 60-12 and in total strikes 127-13. It is worth pointing out that the 36-year-old Evans-Smith hadn’t competed in 32 months before that and was coming off spine surgery, so it was an absolute dream matchup for Perez. Prior to that, Perez got submitted in the second round of her UFC debut against a really tough Stephanie Egger. That fight notably took place at 145 lb, before Perez dropped back down to 135 lb following the loss. Egger is the only legitimate opponent Perez has ever faced, and Perez’s pre-UFC career was basically her bullying low-level opponents with ground and pound. While Perez’s last fight went the distance, her previous five all ended early.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Perez has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. All five of her finishes ended in the first two rounds, with three of those ending in round one. The first finish of her career ended in a submission, but the last four all via KO/TKO. Just keep in mind, she’s been facing dubious competition throughout her career and only one of her seven pre-UFC wins came against an opponent with a winning record. Two of her last three victories before joining the UFC were against opponents with zero combined professional wins. Other than the submission loss in her UFC debut, her only other defeat came by DQ for illegal knees in a 2021 warehouse fight against Tamires Vidal. Perez made her pro debut at 125 lb in 2018, before moving up to 135 lb for her next two fights. She then took a fight up at 145 lb in her fourth pro match, which she won by decision, before dropping back down to 135 lb for her four matches leading up to her UFC debut, which she took at 145 lb, before dropping back down to 135 lb afterwards.
Overall, Perez has shown the ability to dominate low-level opponents in the wrestling exchanges and exert heavy top pressure while raining down ground and pound. However, she has yet to defeat any legitimate competition and we still need to see if she can be effective in those matchups. She’s definitely not the brightest and we’ve seen her make several terrible decisions in the past, while she also doesn’t have a very diverse skill set. However, when given the right matchup she’s shown the ability to bully opponents on the mat and often end fights early with ground and pound. She doesn't appear to offer much in terms of submissions and she’s just a BJJ blue belt. Between her two UFC fights, she landed 11 of her 18 takedown attempts (61.1% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 2 of their 8 attempts (75% defense).
Lucie Pudilova
10th UFC Fight (3-6)Pudilova will be looking to bounce back from a terrible split-decision loss to Joselyne Edwards, where Pudilova landed two takedowns and controlled Edwards for half the match, but the judges ignored all of that. Edwards did finish ahead 56-39 in significant strikes and 90-74 in total strikes, but seemingly everyone was shocked the decision went her way, including the broadcast team. Prior to that, Pudilova notched her first UFC win since 2018 and only finish since 2016 (before she joined the UFC), with a second round ground and pound TKO over Wu Yanan. That was Pudilova’s first fight back in the UFC after she got cut following a 2020 decision loss to Justine Kish. Pudilova originally joined the UFC in 2017 when she was just 22 years old. She lost a decision to Lina Lansberg in her debut, but bounced back with decision wins over Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras. However, she then lost four straight, with decision losses to Irene Aldana, Liz Carmouche, and Justine Kish, and a submission loss to Antonina Shevchenko, before being released. After getting cut, Pudilova returned to fighting in the Czech Republic, where she fought to six straight decisions, winning five of them. The UFC then brought her back in August 2022 and Pudilova has since shown a lot of improvements to her grappling.
Now 14-8 as a pro, Pudilova has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and nine decisions. Both of her submission wins occurred back in 2016, while she only has one KO/TKO win since 2015. She’s never been knocked out, with her one early loss ending in a 2019 R2 submission against Antonina Shevchenko. Pudilova’s other seven losses all went the distance. Thirteen of her last 15 fights went the distance.
Overall, Pudilova had looked like a one-dimensional striker in her first stint with the UFC, but clearly had been working on her ground game in her time away as she suddenly put on a grappling clinic in her 2022 return to the UFC, albeit against a one-dimensional striker in Wu Yanan. Pudilova has a solid jab and is a pretty good striker, but she’s been somewhat inconsistent throughout her career. Pudilova landed more takedowns in each of her last two fights (2) than she did in her first seven UFC fights combined (1), which is encouraging for her grappling moving forward, although she did face two one-dimensional strikers in her last two fights and we still need to see how she looks against a grappler. In her nine UFC fights, she landed 5 of her 18 takedown attempts (27.8% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on 7 of their 19 attempts (63.2% defense). Her last four opponents combined for just two total takedown attempts against her, landing one of those. Pudilova is just 1-3 in UFC fights where she’s been taken down even once.
UPDATE: Perez missed weight by a half pound!
Fight Prediction:
Pudilova will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This is a good test for both of these two, as Perez has yet to show she can beat anyone decent and Pudilova still needs to prove she can defeat grapplers. They both have a nasty side and we’re expecting a brawling, bruising battle. Pudilova has a massive striking advantage, while Perez relies on her wrestling and ground and pound to win fights. So if Pudilova can keep the fight standing, Perez will be in serious trouble. We’ve yet to really see the 63% takedown defense of Pudilova tested since she returned to the UFC in 2022, but the rest of her grappling game has improved, so there’s no reason to think her defense hasn’t also gotten better. She’s got long legs that could make it tougher for the shorter fighter in Perez to get her down, although that’s hard to really know until we see the initial wrestling exchanges. That creates an interesting live betting opportunity and if Perez struggles with her early takedown attempts, we’ll definitely be looking to live bet Pudilova.
The smaller cage in this fight should benefit Perez, who will constantly be looking to close the distance, while Pudilova will have less room to evade. We’ve yet to see Perez face any legitimate strikers, so it’s hard to gauge just how bad she’ll look in a pure striking battle, but our guess is somewhere between terrible and god awful. However, if Perez is able to land takedowns, she’ll be in a great position to grind out a decision on the mat, with a chance of landing a ground and pound finish. Pudilova is really tough though and no one has ever been able to knock her out, so Perez’s more likely method of victory would be a decision. Based on how green Perez is, it wouldn’t be completely shocking if Pudilova finished her, but keep in mind that 13 of Pudilova’s last 15 fights went the distance. Ultimately, this is a very volatile matchup that will hinge entirely on Perez’s ability to land takedowns and keep top control. It seems like a good buy low spot on Pudilova, as she’s coming off a loss and Perez is coming off a dominant win in a dream matchup. If you take away the last performance from each of them, the odds would look very different, and recency bias is definitely driving the line up for Perez. Either one of these two could end up looking -500 depending on who dictates where the fight takes place, making it a tough fight to predict, and a spot where we have no interest in laying chalk. We lean towards Pudilova pulling off the upset, but it’s certainly not a confident pick and we’re excited to see how this one plays out.
Our favorite bet here is “Lucie Pudilova ML” at +160.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Perez absolutely nuked the last slate she was, scoring 138 DraftKings points and 116 points on FanDuel in a dominant wrestling-heavy decision win. It was an incredibly impressive performance and also an easy one to predict as she took on a 36-year-old opponent in Ashlee Evans-Smith, who everyone thought had retired after having spine surgery and taking almost three years off. Evans-Smith hadn’t won a round, let alone a fight, in 5+ years coming into that matchup. Amazingly Perez was only 22% owned in that dream matchup, and all of the people that missed out will now be chasing that once-in-a-lifetime spot, driving Perez’s ownership up here in a far less favorable matchup. That creates an interesting leverage opportunity by being underweight on her, although if she smashes again you’ll definitely need her to win at her reasonable price tag. Perez’s aggressive nature and wrestling-heavy style are perfect for DFS, but she won’t be able to run through everybody with pure aggression. It’s important to remember that not just that last one, but ALL of her wins have come against terrible opponents and she’s still incredibly green. None of her weaknesses came to light in that last fight, but they surely will in the near future. While her upside remains, her floor is not nearly as safe in this next fight and if Perez can’t effectively land takedowns she’ll be in serious trouble. In the end, this is a volatile matchup with a wide range of scoring outcomes on both sides, and Perez is the type of pace-pushing fighter where you’ll typically want exposure to both sides of her matchups. The odds imply Perez has a 61% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Pudilova has averaged 90 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins, scoring 100 or more in each of her last two victories. She’s a tall, aggressive striker who improved her grappling a good amount in between her first and second stints with the UFC. However, since returning in 2022, we’ve only seen her face two one-dimensional strikers, and this will be the first time she’s faced a wrestler. So there are still a lot of unanswered questions around how she’ll fare in this type of matchup. She’s historically struggled in fights where she’s been taken down, going just 1-3 when allowing even a single takedown in the UFC. However, she has way more experience than Perez and has fought much tougher competition throughout her career, making it hard to know how these two will really match up. Despite Perez’s recent blow up performance, the jury is still out on her and she has a lot of holes that weren’t exposed in that fight. If Pudilova can keep the fight standing, she’ll have a massive advantage. Or if she can take Perez down, she’ll also be able to dictate the action. So Pudilova really just needs to stay off her back and not allow Perez to control her for extended periods of time. At Pudilova’s cheaper price tag, she doesn’t need to put up a huge score to end up in winning lineups and she’ll also be a really solid leverage play off of the popular Perez. The odds imply Pudilova has a 39% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Lucas Alexander
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Alexander was originally scheduled to fight David Onama on the November 4th Brazil card, but Onama dropped out just over a week before the fight and no replacement was found. That forced Alexander to miss out on his Brazilian homecoming and wait for a new matchup on the sidelines. That didn’t take long and on November 1st it was announced that Jesse Butler dropped out of his scheduled fight against Jeka Saragih on November 18th and Alexander happily slid into his spot.
Coming off his first UFC win, Alexander cruised to a unanimous 30-27 victory that was so lopsided it forced Steven Peterson to retire on the spot. Alexander outlanded Peterson 85-26 in significant strikes, while also tacking on a knockdown, and stuffing all four of Peterson’s takedown attempts. Prior to that, Alexander was submitted in the first round of his short notice UFC debut against a really dangerous Joanderson Brito. Alexander slipped as he threw a kick 30 seconds in, which allowed Brito to take his back and never let him go. Just before that, Alexander landed a second round TKO via arm injury against former UFC fighter Jacob Kilburn, who has now lost five straight fights, with four of those losses ending early. Alexander won five straight matches before making his UFC debut, with his last three wins all ending in late round TKOs.
Now 8-3 as a pro, Alexander has three wins by TKO and five decisions. His last two TKO wins ended in round two, with his other ending in round three. All three of his losses ended in first round submissions, and he’s yet to lose a decision. Six of his last seven fights have seen the second round, but only one of his last five matches made it to the judges.
Overall, Alexander is a crisp striker who throws good calf kicks and can mix up his stance to keep opponents guessing. He’s looked for a couple of no hooks rear-naked chokes in past fights, but he’s overall not much of a grappler and struggles with his defensive wrestling. He didn’t attempt a takedown in either of his UFC fights, while his opponents got him down on two of their six attempts (66.7% defense). The fact that he was able to defend all four of the takedowns attempted against him in his last match is encouraging and at just 28 years old, he should be improving all the time. He looked great in his last fight and the only thing he was missing there was a finish. If he can continue to keep fights standing, he’ll give opponents real problems, and now he’s facing a fellow striker.
UPDATE: Alexander missed weight by 2 lb!
Jeka Saragih
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Saragih had been preparing to face a really low-level fighter in Jesse Butler here, but instead will have to go against a drastically tougher opponent in Lucas Alexander. Saragih will be dropping down to 145 lb for the first time in his career after losing in the finals of the Road to UFC tournament in a second round ground and pound TKO against a fraudulent Anshul Jubli. Prior to that loss, Saragih landed three straight knockouts of his own and he’s won 13 of his last 15 fights.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Saragih has eight wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and one decision victory. Of his 12 finishes, seven came in round one, three ended in round two, and two occurred in round three. He’s been finished in all three of his career losses, with one TKO and two submissions. One of those defeats was in the first round of his 2016 pro debut, while the last two occurred in the later rounds.
Overall, Saragih is a stalky, powerful striker who rarely requires the judges. He’s the first Indonesian UFC fighter, after spending the rest of his career with the One Pride organization in Indonesia, where he held the Lightweight belt from 2017 to 2020. In addition to his dangerous striking, he’s shown the ability to grapple at times, but appears to prefer knockouts to submissions. In his last three fights, he landed all three of his takedown attempts, while his opponents got him down on two of their five attempts (60% defense). It will be important to monitor Saragih closely on the scale as he moves down to 145 lb for the first time.
Fight Prediction:
Alexander will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
This sets up as an exciting striking battle between two dangerous fighters. Saragih spent most of his last fight being controlled on the mat, so he never had a chance to really show off his striking. Now he’ll face a one-dimensional striker in Alexander, so he won’t have to worry about getting taken down, although it’s possible he could look for a takedown of his own. You never know how Saragih’s body will react to him cutting down to 145 lb for the first time, and if the weight cut doesn’t go smoothly, his chin and/or cardio could be left compromised. Both of those factors would increase Alexander’s chances of landing a knockout, although Saragih has never been finished on the feet. Despite Saragih coming down a weight class, Alexander will be the taller and longer fighter and he does a great job of mixing up his weapons and throwing a ton of kicks, which will make it tougher for Saragih to find his range. If he gets frustrated he could end up walking onto something, and we like Alexander’s chances of knocking Saragih out, although it also won’t be shocking to see Alexander win another decision. Either way, we like him to win here.
Our favorite bet here is “Lucas Alexander KO or DEC” at -275.
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DFS Implications:
Alexander is a one-dimensional striker who struggles with getting taken down, controlled, and submitted, which makes it tougher to trust him when he’s facing opponents that can grapple. However, he’s facing another striker here and even though Saragih does have a handful of submission wins on his record, he hasn’t impressed us on the mat. With no grappling to boost his scoring, Alexander is reliant on landing knockouts to score well, and only put up 76 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, despite dominating the fight and landing a knockdown. And at his expensive price tag, he could still easily get left out of winning lineups with a poorly timed knockout. However, this also looks like a decent buy low spot on him, as he’s yet to score well in the UFC, but landed three straight knockouts just before joining the organization. He’s also facing an opponent who’s coming off a TKO loss and now dropping down to 145 lb for the first time, which adds some volatility to the mix. If Saragih shows up with either a compromised chin or cardio from a tough weight cut, Alexander could be looking at a teed up finish. And it’s not like this slate has the most appealing options at the top anyways, so Alexander may not need to put up a ridiculous score to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Alexander has an 81% chance to win, a 51% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.
Saragih is an aggressive finisher who has only required the judges once in 16 pro fights. He hunts for big knockouts, but his shorter stature can make it tougher for him to connect on a lot of those kill shots. Nevertheless, he throws enough volume to give him numerous opportunities to land one, which is often all he needs to end a fight. However, he’s yet to show that his finishing ability can translate to the UFC level from the unheralded Indonesian regional scene and Saragih got finished by an unimpressive Anshul Jubli in his recent UFC debut. Now Saragih will be dropping down to 145 lb for the first time, and we have no idea how he’ll look at the new weight class. He’s facing a really tough opponent in Lucas Alexander, who’s never been knocked out but has been prone to getting submitted. Maybe Saragih will surprise us and look to grapple more than he has in the past, but he’s generally more of a striker. At his cheap price tag, it’s possible he could serve as a value play even in a decision win, but he’ll need a finish to really score well. The odds imply Saragih has a 19% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Mick Parkin
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Fresh off an efficient decision win in his recent UFC debut, Parkin easily cruised to a 30-27 decision win in a pure striking battle, finishing ahead 95-36 in significant strikes. That fight took place in front of Parkin’s home London crowd, as he fought alongside his teammate Tom Aspinall. However, just before that, Parkin fought in the Apex for his DWCS match and locked up a first round submission—the only submission win of his career. Parkin only turned pro in 2019, but finished his first six opponents in the first two rounds leading up to the recent decision win in his UFC debut. Prior to going on DWCS, he had exclusively been fighting on the England regional scene, where there aren’t a ton of Heavyweight fighters to train with according to Tom Aspinall.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Parkin has five KO/TKO wins, one submission victory, and one decision win. Four of those finishes ended in round one, with the other two coming in round two. After he finished his first three opponents in the first round, three of his last four fights saw round two. None of Parkin’s first five opponents came in with winning records, so he’s been beating up on a very low level of competition for most of his career.
Overall, Parkin is an English Heavyweight grappler, who’s still pretty green, but opted to rely entirely on his striking in his recent UFC debut against a fellow grappler. That was actually a really smart game plan in terms of taking the path of least resistance to secure a win, and he did a great job of landing leg kicks on the skinny calves of Jamal Pogues. That shows an ability to adjust his game plan based on his opponents’ weaknesses. The fact that Parkin trains with Aspinall is encouraging for his continued growth as a fighter, and better to work with to develop a well rounded skill set at Heavyweight? Parkin didn’t even attempt a takedown in his last fight, but landed both of his attempts on DWCS in a fight that lasted just under two minutes. Parkin was also taken down twice in that fight, but defended the only takedown against him in his recent debut. We still need to see more from Parkin before we can reach too many conclusions on him, but he’s clearly well-rounded and at just 28 years old he has nothing but time to continue to learn and improve.
Caio Machado
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Machado is coming off a lackluster decision win on DWCS, where he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win, but it was against an opponent who appeared disinterested in actually fighting. Machado was able to land a good amount of striking volume, finishing ahead 121-17 in significant strikes and 156-18 in total strikes, but was never close to landing a finish. He never attempted a takedown of his own, but was able to stuff all seven of the attempts against him. Prior to that, he had spent his entire career on the Canadian regional scene beating up a series of low-level opponents and senior citizens. His last two opponents before going on DWCS were an 11-7 44-year-old and an 11-15 54-year-old, who Machado also defeated two fights prior to that rematch.
Now 8-1-1 as a pro, Machado has four TKO wins, two submissions, and two decision victories. Both of his submission wins were by R1 armbar in consecutive fights just before his DWCS match. All four of his TKO victories also ended in the first round and all four of his fights to see the second round ended up going the distance (2-1-1). The only loss of his career came in a five-round decision in his third pro fight. All of his finishes/wins should be taken with a grain of salt based on the low level of competition he’s been facing.
Overall, Machado is a low-level but somewhat well-rounded fighter who claims to have black belts in Muay Thai, BJJ, and kickboxing, but hasn’t really impressed us anywhere. He’s tall at 6’4” but not very muscular and has weighed in as light as 230 lb. It seems like he could cut down to Light Heavyweight if he wanted to, or could add some muscle and really commit to Heavyweight, but hasn’t done either. He’s Brazilian, but lives and trains in Canada, a country not known for producing too many high-level Heavyweights. Machado doesn’t have much in the way of power at Heavyweight and has been prone to getting controlled along the cage. His defensive wrestling has looked decent, at least against unimpressive opponents, but he hasn’t shown much in the way of offensive wrestling. While he has shown the ability to look for armbars, something you don’t see a ton at Heavyweight, that has been the extent of his grappling prowess in his last half dozen fights. To Machado’s credit, he has won seven straight fights, but we expect him to struggle in the UFC and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him make a desperation drop down to Light Heavyweight after losing his first few fights with the organization and then likely getting knocked out and cut.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4”, but Parkin will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both of these guys are still pretty green, but Parkin has shown much more promise and we’ve yet to be impressed by anything we’ve seen from Machado. Parkin is the much thicker and stronger fighter and also the better wrestler. He’s got better training partners, more technical striking, and he’s already got a UFC win under his belt. Parkin is a true Heavyweight, where Machado is one of these tall tweeners who just added 20 lb of fat to avoid being 30-35 lb lighter than his opponents. Unless Parking randomly gets caught in an armbar, or clipped with a hail mary shot, we don’t see him losing this fight. While Parkin was typically looking to wrestle all of his opponents before joining the UFC, he never even attempted a takedown in his recent debut, presumably because he was facing another blown up Light Heavyweight with some grappling skills, who Parkin correctly determined he could easily defeat on the feet. So it wouldn't be surprising to see him come in with a similar game plan here and this may not be the wrestling explosion spot we were hoping to get out of him in his second UFC fight—that may have to wait until next time. Unless Parkin is getting outstruck, there’s a good chance he’ll be content with keeping things standing here and again outlanding his way to victory. At that point, it’s just a matter of whether or not he can land a knockout. He wasn’t loading up on many shots in his last fight, which increases the chances of this running longer, but maybe he’ll be more comfortable pushing for a finish now that he’s already got a win under his belt. We lean towards Parkin winning another decision, but we certainly won’t be shocked to see him land a knockout. Either way, Parkin is the play.
Our favorite bet here is “Mick Parkin KO or DEC” at -150.
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DFS Implications:
Parkin convincingly won a decision in his recent UFC debut, outlanding Jamal Pogues 95-36 in significant strikes in the pure stand up affair, but only scored 69 DraftKings points in the win. He now finds himself as one of the most expensive fighters on the card and a similar performance wouldn’t even be close to enough for him to return value. On the plus side, that will keep his ownership lower in tournaments. While Parkin never looked to wrestle in that fight and was content with winning a technical striking battle, he’s historically looked to get opponents down and finish them on the mat. So he does offer theoretical upside, we just need to correctly predict when he’ll unleash it. We were hoping his second UFC fight would give us that opportunity, but we’re not so sure this is the right matchup for it. He’s facing a BJJ black belt with decent takedown defense and two submission wins in his last three fights and we could see Parkin once again abandon his wrestling in favor of his striking. He should be able to outland his way to victory once again, so he may not see it being worth the risk in taking the fight to the ground, assuming he could even get it there. In that scenario, he would be reliant on landing a well timed knockout to crack tournament winning lineups and Machado has never been finished in his career, although he’s been fighting a bunch of bums. However, if we’re wrong and Parkin does look to wrestle, he would have many more ways to score well and a much higher scoring ceiling. So the potential for him to score well is there, but we’re going to wait until he has a juicier stylistic matchup before going really heavy on him. The odds imply Parkin has a 75% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Machado looks decent on paper, but once you turn on the tape it’s pretty clear he’s actually terrible and has just been facing even worse opponents. He’s okay at everything, but not really good at anything and lacks power for the Heavyweight division. While he’s a BJJ black belt, he doesn’t look for many takedowns and his only two submission wins were against a 44-year-old and a 54-year-old. We’re not even kidding, the combined age of his last four opponents before going on DWCS was 185! We’ve never seen anything like that and it makes it impossible to take Machado seriously. He should probably be fighting down at Light Heavyweight, which lowers his chances of landing a knockout, and we’d be surprised if Machado submitted Parkin. Machado is also a sloppier striker and hasn’t shown the best cardio, so all of his paths to victory are pretty thin. He did show the ability to land a good amount of striking volume in his last fight, but that came against a punching bag of an opponent and we don’t see him repeating that performance against Parkin. However, if we’re wrong and Machado does pull off the upset, at his cheap salary he would have a decent shot at ending up in winning lineups. The odds imply Machado has a 25% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Christian Leroy Duncan
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Duncan had been set to face Cesar Almeida here, but Almeida dropped out early in the week and Tiuliulin was announced as the replacement on Tuesday.
Looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career, Duncan dropped an uneventful decision to a fellow striker in Armen Petrosyan, who outlanded Duncan 89-59 in significant strikes and took him down once, while stuffing all three of Duncan’s takedown attempts. Prior to that, Duncan’s UFC debut ended unceremoniously before it ever really began when Dusko Todorovic randomly blew out his knee in a freak injury less than two minutes into the first round. Just before that anticlimactic debut win, Duncan won a pair of Middleweight title fights with Cage Warriors. Both of those fights were scheduled to go five rounds, but neither made it past the 11 minute mark, with one ending early in round three and the other late in round one. Duncan only turned pro in September 2020 and has just nine pro fights under his belt, but he had a lengthy amateur career prior to that. While he’s only required the judges twice as a pro, he went 5-6 in amateur fights that went the distance and has generally been reliant on landing finishes to win, both as a pro and an amateur.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Duncan has six wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. He has four first round finishes, two in round, and one in round three. Both of his second round finishes came in the opening 18 seconds of round two, while his lone third round finish occurred in the opening minute of round three. So he likes to come out hot early in rounds and six of his eight pro fights have ended in under five and a half minutes. He’s never been finished, with his one loss ending in a decision.
Overall, Duncan is a powerful striker who likes to mix in flashy strikes like jumping knees, spinning back elbows, and roundhouse kicks. One consistent issue we’ve seen from him is a tendency to leave his fingers outstretched and he’ll run the risk of poking opponents in their eyes until he fixes that. He also struggles off his back and doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. Because of that and his dangerous striking, opponents are often looking to take him down, which has often contributed to lower striking totals in his fights. Showing just how bad his grappling is, he failed to land any of his three takedown attempts against Armen Petrosyan, who came into that fight with a 25% takedown defense. And Petrosyan was even able to take Duncan down, which is the only time Petrosyan landed a takedown in any of his four UFC fights or on DWCS. Now Duncan will face another one-dimensional striker, so clearly they’re trying to mask his grappling deficiency.
Denis Tiuliulin
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Tiuliulin is stepping into this matchup on very short notice, as he was announced as the replacement on Tuesday. We had thought Tiuliulin’s days in the UFC were over, after he went 1-3 with the organization in his first four fights, getting finished in under seven minutes in all three of those losses. All three of those losses came on the mat, where Tiuliulin is helpless off his back. The most recent of those defeats was against Gregory Rodrigues, who easily took Tiuliulin down less than a minute into the fight and quickly finished him with ground and pound. Prior to that, Tiuliulin got choked out in the first round by Jun Yong Park, after knocking out Jamie Pickett late in the second round just before that. Tiuliulin made his UFC debut in 2022 against a dangerous wrestler in Aliaskhab Khizriev and got submitted in the second round. Tiuliulin’s last nine fights all ended early (5-4), and only two of his last 17 matches made it to the judges, both of which ended in split decision losses.
Now 10-8 as a pro, Tiuliulin has nine wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory. His last nine wins all ended in knockouts, after he won a two-round decision in his 2013 pro debut. All nine of his knockouts came in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and three in round two. He’s been knocked out twice himself, submitted four times, and has two decision losses. His last five early losses all came on the mat, one by ground and pound and four by submission. He’s 0-3 in fights that have seen the third round with two split-decision losses and a submission defeat. Amazingly, Tiuliulin has competed anywhere from 155 to 205 lb in the past, but his last 12 fights have all been at 185 lb.
Overall, Tiuliulin has a background in Thai boxing and doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling. While he’s got solid power, he’s very one-dimensional, has bad cardio, and he gets taken down and controlled far too easily. Only 3 of 10 career wins have come against opponents with winning records, so most of his victories were against very questionable competition. He’s really struggled against anyone with decent grappling and he’s been taken down by his opponents on 4 of 13 attempts (69.2% defense), and finished on the mat in all three UFC fights where he gave up a takedown. He’s attempted two takedowns of his own, but failed to land either of them. Tiuliulin does a good job of landing strikes when he can keep fights standing and averages 5.04 SSL/min and 5.83 SSA/min. And if we just look at his one fight where no takedowns were landed, he averaged 7.40 SSL/min and 6.08 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Duncan will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being seven years younger than the 35-year-old Tiuliulin.
Both of these two are turtles off their backs, so if either of them does land a takedown, they’ll be in a good position to control the other and land ground and pound. However, they’re both terrible wrestlers and we’re expecting a kickboxing battle here. They’re both powerful strikers, but Duncan has never been finished and all of Tiuliulin’s recent early losses have been on the mat. The short notice nature of the matchup does add some uncertainty on Tiuliulin’s side of things, and he already has suspect cardio to begin with. So the chances of him gassing out in the later rounds are higher, which could increase Duncan’s chances of landing a late finish. However, Duncan doesn’t push a very high pace and only has one finish beyond the six minute mark, so he’s not a great candidate to really wear Tiuliulin down and finish him late. While Tiuliulin’s last nine fights all ended early and Duncan has only been to the judges twice in nine pro fights, we wouldn’t be completely shocked to see this end in a decision. However, Tiuliulin kind of fights like a zombie and we could also see Duncan connecting on one of his spinning attacks and knocking Tiuliulin out at any point in the fight. You also always have to give Tiuliulin a puncher’s chance in a striking battle. With that said, Tiuliulin’s cardio is a legitimate concern and he’ll likely need to land a knockout in the opening two rounds if he wants to win. Tiuliulin’s suspect gas tank, non-existent ground game, and terrible 40% striking defense are reasons enough to think that Duncan can find a knockout and that will be our official pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Duncan/Tiuliulin Fight Ends in KO” at -170.
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DFS Implications:
Duncan had been set to face Cesar Almeida here as a -155 favorite when DraftKings released pricing, but then Almeida dropped out on Monday and Tiuliulin was announced as the replacement on Tuesday. If pricing came out with the current matchup, Duncan would be priced at $9,400, so he’s underpriced by $900. That mispricing will drive Duncan’s ownership up, lowering his tournament appeal some, but makes him a good value option in low-risk contests. He only scored 28 DraftKings points in his recent decision loss, so he’s given us zero indication that he can score well without a finish, and he offers next to nothing in terms of grappling. That leaves him as a KO or bust option in all of his fights. He’s facing a fellow striker here in Tiuliulin, and the short notice nature of the matchup is encouraging for Duncan’s chances of finding a finish, as Tiuliulin already has suspect cardio to begin with and now only had a few days to prepare for this fight. However, while Tiuliulin has been finished in six of his eight pro losses, his last five early losses were all on the mat and he’s never been knocked down in the UFC or finished on the feet. That at least gives some reason to think he can avoid getting knocked out, although if he gasses out then all bets are off. Tiuliulin also has just a 40% striking defense and averages 5.83 SSA/min (most on the slate), so Duncan should have plenty of opportunities to land a knockout blow. The odds imply Duncan has a 79% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Tiuliulin is a KO or bust boxer who offers nothing in terms of grappling but has landed knockouts in his last nine career wins, with six of those ending in round one and three in round two. He’s been finished by all three of the grapplers he faced in the UFC, but was able to land a knockout in the one fight he was able to keep standing. Tiuliulin scored a ridiculous 124 DraftKings points in that lone UFC win, which came late in the second round against a terrible Jamie Pickett. Tiuliulin’s gas tank was on empty as the ref stopped the fight in that win and he looked like he was about to die of exhaustion if the fight wasn’t stopped. That’s concerning for him here since he took this fight on only a few days notice, and Tiuliulin will need to get Duncan out of there in the first two rounds before he turns into a pumpkin. Duncan has never been finished, so it looks like a tough ask for Tiuliulin, but we’ll always give him a puncher’s chance. The odds imply Tiuliulin has a 21% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Jose Johnson
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Johnson recently got dunked on in his short notice UFC debut, when Da'Mon Blackshear finished Johnson in the first round with a rare twister submission. In fairness to Johnson, he stepped into that fight on five days’ notice and was going against a really dangerous grappler, an area where Johnson has been the weakest. So Johnson was set up to fail in that spot and the results were entirely unsurprising. Johnson had previously been set to make his UFC debut against Garrett Armfield on February 25th before he withdrew due to a medical issue. That was actually the second straight time that Johnson had been booked to make his debut before withdrawing, and he had also been set to face Vince Morales back in November 2022, but dropped out there as well. Almost exactly a year before losing his recent debut, Johnson won a decision on DWCS, despite getting taken down six times and controlled for over eight minutes in the fight. That was actually his second appearance on the show and he originally went on back in 2020, but got dominated on the mat for three rounds by Ronnie Lawrence, who took Johnson down 12 times on 17 attempts. Johnson then returned to the regional scene and won a decision of his own, before getting knocked out in just 32 seconds by Mana Martinez. Johnson bounced back from the loss with a second round submission win over a wrestler in Mo Miller, who also fought on DWCS back in 2021. Johnson then landed a 12 second first round knockout leading up to his decision win on DWCS.
Now 15-8 as a pro, Johnson has eight wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and five decision wins. All eight of his knockouts occurred in round one, while both of his submission wins ended in round two. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2021), submitted four times (all in R1), and has three decision losses. Twenty one of his 23 pro fights either ended in the first round (8-5) or went the distance (5-3), with the other two ending in second round submission wins. Johnson also had a ridiculously extensive amateur career where he went 68-12. Johnson has fought at 145 lb and even 155lb, but most of his career has been spent at 135 lb, despite him being really tall for the division at 6’0”.
Overall, Johnson is a tall, rangy striker who struggles immensely with being taken down. He’s very dangerous on the feet, especially in the first round, but time after time we see him struggle when it comes to defensive wrestling. In his two DWCS fights, he got taken down 18 times on 26 attempts (30.8% defense) and controlled for over 18 minutes. He then got taken down twice early in the first round of his UFC debut and controlled for three minutes before getting submitted. Overall, he has just a 29% takedown defense. When he’s not getting taken down, Johnson throws dangerous strikes from range and slicing elbows and knees out of the clinch. He’s talked about making improvements to his wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and to his credit he submitted a wrestler a few fights back. However, he still struggles with being taken down and we expect opponents to continue to attack him in that area. Somewhat concerning, Johnson said he recently left the gym he had been at (StrKings), so it sounds like he’s working with a new team now.
Chad Anheliger
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Fourteen months removed from a decision loss to Alatengheili, Anheliger got hurt early on in that match but was able to survive to avoid the first knockout loss of his career and instead lose a unanimous 30-27 decision. Since then, Anheliger has been recovering from a shoulder injury, opened up his own gym, and was awarded his BJJ black belt. Prior to that last loss, Anheliger had won 10 straight fights, with the last two of those wins being a R3 TKO win in his February 2022 UFC debut against a terrible Jesse Strader, and a split-decision win over Muin Gafurov on DWCS in September 2021. Anheliger started off his pro career back in 2010 and went just 2-5 in his first seven fights, with all five losses ending in submissions. Following the string of submission losses, Anheliger switched camps and took nearly two years off to improve his grappling, before returning to competing and winning nine straight fights leading up to the win in his UFC debut, including titles as both Flyweight and Bantamweight with the Rise Fighting Championship organization.
Now 12-6 as a pro, Anheliger has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. Five of his losses ended in submissions in his first seven pro fights from 2010 to 2014, with his one other defeat coming in his recent decision defeat. His last five made it to the third round, but only two of those ended with the scorecards.
Overall, Anheliger is a striker who’s biggest weakness is his defensive grappling/wrestling. However, that has been an area he’s worked on through his pro career, and he did recently get his BJJ black belt. While his takedown defense has improved since earlier in his career, he’s still been taken down 11 times on 21 attempts in his last three fights (47.6% defense). He failed to land any of his three takedown attempts over that stretch. He’s now 36 years old and it’s been over a year since Anheliger last competed, so he is getting up there in age and his level of inactivity is concerning. However, in recent interviews he said he plans on pushing the pace and pressuring Johnson in this fight.
Fight Prediction:
Johnson will have a ridiculous 6” height advantage and 7” reach advantage, while being eight years younger than the 36-year-old Anheliger.
While these two couldn’t look much more different from one another, stylistically, they’re very similar. They’re both one-dimensional strikers who have struggled with being taken down and submitted and they’re also both coming off a loss. While Anheliger talked about how he recently got his black belt, his wrestling has still looked bad, so who knows if he’ll ever get to show off the grappling he’s been working on. Johnson is so much taller and longer, that it could give Anheliger trouble closing the distance and Johnson does have decent striking, even if we’ve yet to see it in the UFC. It seems like the UFC knew what they were doing when they put this matchup together, and after Johnsons stepped in on short notice to get submitted by Da'Mon Blackshear, they’re throwing him a bone by giving him a small, Canadian striker to show off his striking against. While Anheliger has never been knocked out, he got rocked by Alatengheili at multiple points in his last fight and now hasn’t competed in over a year and is getting up there in age. He claims he’s going to pressure Johnson, but if he gets overly aggressive we could see Johnson becoming the first fighter to knock him out. It also won’t be shocking to see this end in a decision, but we’ll say Johnson finishes things early to secure his first UFC win.
Our favorite bet here is “Jose Johnson KO” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Johnson is a tall, rangy striker who struggles to defend takedowns, but has decent finishing ability on the feet. Ten of his 15 career wins have come early, with eight first round knockouts and two second round submissions, but he’s also been finished in five of his eight pro losses. Expect him to struggle mightily anytime he faces a wrestler/grappler, but he can definitely find success in striking battles and he’s massive at 135 lb. Nine of his last 10 finishes came via R1 KO, showing that he has a lot of scoring potential. While Anheliger has never been knocked out, he’s coming off a 14 month layoff and a shoulder injury and is now 36 years old. He also almost got knocked out in his last fight and hasn’t fought many powerful strikers. So we’re not getting too hung up on his record and this looks like a good bounce back spot for Johnson in a rare favorable matchup. His recent embarrassing R1 Twister loss combined with his expensive price tag should keep his ownership in check, which just adds to his tournament appeal. We don’t see Johnson scoring especially well in a decision, so he will be reliant on finding a finish to return value. The odds imply Johnson has a 64% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Anheliger scored 99 DraftKings points in a R3 TKO win in his UFC debut, but that came against an absolutely terrible opponent and it was bolstered by two knockdowns or it would have failed to make a meaningful mark. Similar to Johnson, Anheliger has really struggled when it comes to wrestling and most of his opponents are looking to take him down. However, now he’ll finally face another one-dimensional striker, making this a more favorable matchup for both guys. With that said, Anheliger will be at a massive size disadvantage and he may struggle to close the distance and find his range. It’s possible Anheliger will look to wrestle, as everyone should against Johnson, although it’s unclear if Anheliger actually has the skills to get the fight to the mat. Regardless, that at least creates a theoretical way he boosts his scoring and increases his chances of winning a decision or even landing a submission. However, we’re still not especially high on him and we think he could struggle with the size of Johnson. The odds imply Anheliger has a 36% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Jonathan Pearce
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Eleven months removed from a lopsided decision win over the ageless Darren Elkins, Pearce has won five straight fights since getting finished in the first round of his 2019 UFC debut, which took place up a weight class at 155 lb. All five of those wins made it out of the first round, but three ended in round two finishes, with two ground and pound TKOs and one submission. Pearce nearly finished Elkins in his last fight, but the referee mistakenly took away a dominant position from him in the third round to check a cut on Elkins and then restarted the fight on the feet for no reason. Pearce has won 10 of his last 11 fights and you have to go all the way back to 2017 to find his second most recent loss. The only real danger Pearce has faced over his current winning streak was when he nearly got caught in a guillotine against a debuting Christian Rodriguez. Pearce originally punched his ticket to the UFC with a dominant third round TKO win on DWCS.
Now 14-4 as a pro, Pearce has nine wins by KO, two submissions, and three decision victories. Six of his last seven finishes have come in round two and only one of his 11 early wins ended in the first round, which was all the way back in 2015 in his third pro fights. He has seven second round finishes and three in round three. He’s been finished in the first round in three of his four losses, with one TKO (2019), and two submissions (Both in 2016). He also has one decision defeat.
Overall, Pearce is a giant 145er who relies on getting opponents to the mat and beating them up with ground and pound while he threatens submissions. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and finish them in the later rounds, typically in round two. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Pearce landed 27 of his 48 takedown attempts (56.3% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 9 of their 22 attempts (59.1% defense). Pearce does a good job of weaponizing his pace and he averages 6.11 SSL/min and 3.66 SSA/min, while adding on 5.7 TDA/15 min.
Joanderson Brito
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Brito has landed three straight first round finishes, all in under three minutes, after losing a decision in his 2022 UFC debut against Bill Algeo. However, his last two wins both came against opponents making their short notice UFC debuts, so he has had some very favorable recent matchups. To his credit, he did land a 41 second knockout against a really tough Andre Fili just before that. Brito’s only loss in his last 16 fights came in a decision in his 2022 UFC debut against Bill Algeo. Brito punched his ticket to the UFC with a technical decision win over Diego Lopes on DWCS in 2021, after violently knocking out Jose Mariscal in just 44 seconds, and Brito’s last six wins all ended in under 11 minutes, with five of those ending in the opening six minutes.
Now 15-3-1 as a pro, Brito has gone 14-1-1 in his last 16 fights after starting off his career at 1-2 back in 2013. He has seven wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and two decision victories. Ten of his 13 finishes occurred in the opening three minutes of the first round, while he also has two second round finishes, and another in round three. He was finished by his opponents twice in the first round in his first three pro fights, once by TKO and another by submission, with his only other career loss coming by decision in his UFC debut. Brito has primarily competed at 145 lb and 155 lb in the past, but did fight down at 135 lb early in his career. He’s remained at 145 lb since 2019, which is where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, Brito is a blitzing wild man who throws violent strikes with fight-ending intentions and constantly looks for takedowns. He’ll look for both guillotines and rear-naked chokes in addition to trying to finish opponents with haymakers. He’s dangerous in a variety of ways, but he lacks much finesse and simply tries to bull rush and overpower his opponents. Brito uses so much energy early on in fights that it’s tougher for him to remain competitive later in matches. Between his DWCS appearance and his four UFC fights, Brito landed 8 of his 11 takedown attempts (72.7% accuracy), while getting taken down on both of the attempts against him (0% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Pearce will have a 4” height advantage, but Brito will have a 1” reach advantage.
This looks like one of those most exciting fights on the card and it should be fireworks from the start. Brito always starts fast in fights, pushing hard for first round finishes. However, when he’s unable to get opponents out of there early, he tends to slow down in the later rounds. The only time he’s been out of the first round in the UFC, he lost both rounds two and three. Per usual, Brito is live for a first round finish here, and both a knockout or a submission are possible, but we like Pearce’s chances of surviving the opening five minutes and then finishing Brito late in round two with ground and pound after Brito slows down.
Our favorite bet here is “Jonathan Pearce KO” at +333.
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DFS Implications:
Pearce has impressively averaged 120 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins and has broken the slate in his three finishes, all of which came in the second round and averaged 134 points. He still scored 104 and 96 points respectively in his two decision victories, but he hasn’t shown quite the same upside in fights that have gone the distance. He does a great job of racking up takedowns and ground strikes and he’s landed 23 takedowns in his five UFC victories. He tends to wear on his opponents and finish them on the mat late in fights, which is the perfect strategy for a guy like Brito who empties his gas tank in the first round pushing for finishes. However, Brito is dangerous enough to finish Pearce in the opening five minutes, which leaves Pearce with a shaky floor, but a massive ceiling. Whoever wins this fight should end up in the optimal lineup. The odds imply Pearce has a 53% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Brito has landed three straight first round finishes, averaging 115 DraftKings points in those wins. He’s yet to win a fight, or even a round, after the opening five minutes in the UFC and his cardio is his biggest concern. He sells out for first round finishes and he always comes out ultra aggressively. That leaves him with a really high ceiling, but an untrustworthy scoring floor. His last two opponents were both making their short notice UFC debuts, so he’s had some very favorable matchups recently. Now he’ll get a much tougher test against a taller wrestler who has made a career out of wearing out opponents and finishing them in the later rounds. That seems like a death sentence for Brito if he can’t end this in round one, leaving him as R1 finish or bust option, although there’s always a slight chance he would have enough energy leftover to land a finish early in round two. At his cheap price tag and with the line moving in his favor, expect Brito to be extremely popular in all contest types, which does lower his tournament appeal some. The odds imply Brito has a 47% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Myktybek Orolbai
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut, Orolbai stepped into this fight on Tuesday after Jonny Parsons dropped out. Orolbai notably competed just three weeks ago when he violently knocked out a Bob Ross stunt double who looked like he learned to fight at an afternoon workshop with Ryan Hall. Orolbai also landed another knockout back in August after saying he was going to strike more following a dominant wrestling performance in a May 2022 decision win in his first LFA fight. Prior to that decision victory, Orolbai landed three more TKOs and he’s won six straight fights, with five of those ending in knockouts.
Now 11-1-1 as a pro, Orolbai has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and one decision victory. He’s never been finished, with his one career loss ending in a close 2020 decision. He also has a five-round draw on his record and has gone just 1-1-1 with the judges. Orolbai started his career at 155 lb, before moving up to 170 lb in 2021. However, after missing weight by a pound in 2022 for a 170 lb fight, we’ve seen him weigh in at just 167.8 lb and 167 lb for his last two 170 lb matches, a sign that he may be considering a move back down to 155 lb.
Overall, Orolbai has shown a multifaceted approach, as sometimes he’ll look like the Kyrgyzstan Jacob Malkoun, while others he’s content with keeping fights on the feet. It appears he’s made a conscious effort to try and strike more lately and you can see him almost go for takedowns and then stop in his last two fights. He has solid power, but doesn’t throw a ton of volume. He’s been training at Team Alpha Male, so he’s at a good gym and should be constantly improving. Considering he took this fight on short notice and just cut weight a few weeks ago, it will be important to monitor him on the scale on Friday.
Uros Medic
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Medic had been scheduled to face a one-dimensional striker in Jonny Parsons here, but Parsons dropped out early in the week and Orolbai was announced as the replacement on Tuesday.
Coming off a hairy third round TKO win over Matthew Semelsberger, Medic got dropped in round one but was able to survive the early adversity. He then came back to win the second round, before finishing Semelsberger midway through round three with ground and pound after dropping him with a spinning backfist. Medic stepped into that matchup at elevation on just a few weeks notice, but still outlasted Semelsberger in what was the longest fight of Medic’s career. That was Medic’s first UFC fight at 170 lb, after he went 2-1 at 155 lb with the organization. Medic hadn’t fought in 14 months leading up to that win, after he knocked out Omar Morales in the second round of a May 2022 match. Prior to that, Medic suffered the first loss of his career when he was submitted by Jalin Turner in the first round of a 2021 fight. That came just after Medic knocked out a terrible Aalon Cruz in the opening minutes of his UFC debut after landing another first round knockout on DWCS in 2020.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Medic has still never been to the judges and has only made it to the third round once. He has seven wins by KO/TKO and two submission victories. Six of his finishes came in round one, two ended in round two, and the most recent occurred in round three. His UFC fights have been getting progressively longer every time he steps inside the Octagon. The only loss of his career was a first round submission against a very dangerous Jalin Turner. Medic made his 2016 pro debut at 185 lb, but dropped down to 170 lb for his second fight, where he stayed until 2020 when he went on DWCS and dropped down to 155 lb. He then moved back up to 170 lb for his last match, where he’ll stay for this next one.
Overall, Medic is a one-dimensional striker who fought his entire pre-UFC career on the Alaskan regional scene facing a much lower level of competition. His aggressive approach to fighting generally forces the action, and he averages 6.97 SSL/min and 3.92 SSA/min. Between his four UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he only attempted one takedown, which he landed in his last match, while his opponents got him down on one of their five attempts (80% defense). Medic has solid power and is aggressive, but isn’t very defensively sound, which generally results in his fights being pretty exciting. He was smart enough to get out of Alaska and he trains down in California at Kings MMA, so he should be improving.
Fight Prediction:
Medic will have a 3” height advantage.
Both of these two have competed at 155 lb and 170 lb, but Medic is the taller fighter and recently moved up to 170 lb, while Orolbai appears to be in the process of dropping back down to 155 lb. So we may see Orolbai carrying a little additional weight for this matchup that he stepped into on very short notice. It will be interesting to see what Orolbai’s cardio looks like and whether or not he intends to come in with a wrestling-heavy game plan. That would clearly be the path of least resistance in this matchup, but he’s been stubbornly looking to keep fights standing lately and we also don’t know if he’ll have the cardio to wrestle for 15 straight minutes considering the short notice nature of this matchup. And while he did just fight a few weeks ago, cutting weight twice in a short period of time can be really tough on the body. However, the impact of that could be lessened by the fact that he was seemingly in a transitional period of dropping back down to 155 lb and was likely walking around lighter than in past 170 lb fights.
Orolbai’s second most recent fight was against an opponent who trains out of Kings MMA, where Medic also trains, so that team just prepared for Orolbai back in August and should be very familiar with him. So while this doesn’t look like a very favorable stylistic matchup for Medic, there are several factors going in his favor. Nevertheless, if Orolbai has the cardio to wrestle for 15 minutes and chooses to fight a smart game plan, he should be able to dominate this fight on the mat and Medic hasn’t shown much of a ground game. However, if Orolbai continues to try and showcase his striking, then this becomes a toss up that either guy could win by knockout or in a decision. While Medic has never been to the judges and Orolbai has only been three times in 13 pro fights, neither one of them have ever been knocked out and we’d be surprised if either guy locked up a submission. Orolbai’s wrestling (if he uses it) gives him the advantage if this hits the scorecards, so we see more ways for him to win and prefer his chances in a decision. However, stepping into your UFC debut on short notice is a tough hurdle to overcome, leaving this as a more volatile matchup. Considering that Medic had been preparing to face a one-dimensional stricker and will now be going against a guy with solid wrestling, we’ll take a leap of faith and say Orolbai uses his wrestling enough to win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Myktybek Orolbai ML” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Orolbai has solid wrestling ability, but has been reluctant to rely on that in his last couple of fights. That makes it tougher to know what his game plan will be, but he at least theoretically has the ability to rack up takedowns and control time that would allow him to score well on DraftKings even in a decision. He’s also shown decent knockout power, but doesn’t land a ton of striking volume. That leaves him as a KO or bust option on FanDuel, while he has more outs on DraftKings. He’s stepping into his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice, which is always a red flag, but the oddsmakers think enough of him to install him as the favorite. If we knew he was going to wrestle and come into the fight in good shape, this would be a great stylistic matchup for him as he faces a one-dimensional striker in Medic. However, we don’t know either of those things, which leaves him with a wider range of potential scoring outcomes, but a high ceiling nonetheless. Medic has never been knocked out in his career, although did come close in his last fight, so there’s no reason to think he’s especially durable. So it’s certainly possible that Orolbai can land a knockout, but he’ll also run the risk of getting knocked out himself if he allows this to turn into a striking battle. The odds imply Orolbai has a 52% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Medic had been set to face Jonny Parsons as a -225 favorite here, but Parsons dropped out on Tuesday after DraftKings had already released pricing. Medic is now an underdog in this new matchup, but still priced as a heavy favorite. So he’s massively overpriced, which will result in him being much lower owned than he otherwise would be. Medic’s 100% career finishing rate is encouraging for his scoring potential and he averaged 107 DraftKings in his three UFC wins. However, as his fights have been getting progressively longer, his scoring has in turn gone down in each of his wins. He only scored 90 DraftKings points in his recent third round knockout win, after scoring 109 points in a second round TKO, and 122 points in a first round knockout. Now he’s facing a wrestler who’s never been knocked out and has the potential to slow Medic down by controlling him on the mat. That leaves Medic as a KO or bust option who could find a finish and still not score enough to return value at his high price tag depending on the timing. However, his low ownership keeps him in play in tournaments in this volatile matchup. The odds imply Medic has a 48% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Amanda Ribas
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Ribas will be dropping back down to 115 lb following a second round TKO loss to Maycee Barber in a wild brawl as the two ladies put on a hell of a co-main event back in June. Barber finished ahead 81-35 in significant strikes and 93-43 in total strikes, while Ribas took her down twice and controlled her for two and a half minutes, before getting finished in the back half of round two. Prior to that, Ribas won a lopsided decision over Viviane Araujo in an impressive performance. Ribas nearly landed a finish, as she hurt Araujo early in round two, but couldn’t quite get her out of there and instead controlled her on the mat for the entire round as she cruised to a unanimous decision win. Just before that win, Ribas moved up from 115 lb to 125 lb and took on perennial Flyweight contender Katlyn Chookagian in her first fight at the new weight class. It looked like Ribas had done enough to win a decision, but two of the three judges disagreed and Chookagian won a split decision. Ribas originally joined the UFC in 2019 and won her first four fights, before getting knocked out by Marina Rodriguez in 2021. She bounced back with a decision win over Virna Jandiroba, before moving up to 125 lb. She’ll now be returning to 115 lb., but said she’s fine competing in both weight classes if it helps her to stay active.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Ribas has two TKO wins (R1 2014 & R2 2016), four submissions, and five decisions. All six of her early wins came in the first halves of fights, including four in round one and two early in round two. On the other side of things, she’s been knocked out three times and has one decision loss. One of her KO losses came in the first round of a 2015 fight against Polyana Viana before either of them joined the UFC, while the other two both occurred in the second round of UFC fights. Ribas spent almost all of her career at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb in 2022, but did fight a terrible Paige VanZant at 125 lb in 2020 and landed a first round submission.
Overall, Ribas is the most dangerous on the ground and she holds black belts in both Judo and BJJ and likes to look for a lot of head and arm throws. While her striking isn’t terrible, she’s been pretty hittable on the feet and got knocked down in each of her last two 115 lb fights before moving up a weight class. In her nine UFC fights, she landed 15 of her 28 takedown attempts (53.6% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in all nine of her fights. Her opponents have only been able to get her down on 2 of their 18 attempts (88.9% defense). Whoever has finished ahead in significant strikes has won all nine of her matches. Ribas has faced three dangerous grapplers in her UFC career in Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba, and we’ll include Viviane Araujoon on that list, and won decisions against all three of them. All three of Ribas’ UFC losses were against strikers. Ribas has traded wins and losses for six straight fights and has never lost two fights in a row in her career.
Luana Pinheiro
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Pinheiro has yet to lose in the UFC, but none of her wins have been pretty. She’s coming off a split decision victory over Michelle Waterson-Gomez, who has lost four straight and six of her last seven fights. Waterson-Gomez outlanded Pinheiro 61-44 in significant strikes and 70-48 in total strikes, while tacking on a takedown and a minute of control time and stuffing all five of Pinheiro’s takedown attempts. That’s Pinheiro’s only fight in the last two years, after she hung on to win a decision over a struggling Sam Hughes in November 2021. Prior to those two decision wins, Pinheiro won via DQ in her May 2021 UFC debut, after Randa Markos threw an illegal upkick that left Pinheiro dazed on her back for an extended period of time. Pinheiro was clearly winning the fight up to that point, so she had no reason to look for a way out, but it did seem like an overreaction to the illegal strike. Regardless, Pinheiro was putting on a Judo clinic prior to the unfortunate ending, as she landed five takedowns on six attempts in just over four minutes of action. However, she’s looked far less impressive in her last two decision wins. Before making her UFC debut, Pinheiro had landed six straight first round finishes, with the last of those coming via knockout on DWCS in 2020.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Pinheiro has two wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, three decision victories, and one DQ win. The only loss of her career came in a 2017 split decision in her third pro fight. She’s won nine straight since that loss, with seven of those nine wins ending in the first round, but her last two going the distance. All 12 of her pro fights have either ended in the first round (8-0) or gone the distance (3-1).
Overall, Pinheiro is a Judo black belt who loves to look for hip throws to get opponents to the mat. She’s aggressive with both her striking and her grappling, but didn’t face much in terms of competition prior to joining the UFC, and hasn’t finished anybody in her three UFC fights, so she’s on full fraud alert. Her boyfriend is the very tentative Matheus Nicolau, which is somewhat concerning in terms of Pinheiro dialing back her aggression if she starts taking his advice. Pinheiro also has somewhat suspect cardio and slows down in the back half of fights. Between her three UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, she landed 7 of her 14 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while her opponents got her down on one of their two attempts (50% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Ribas will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
These two ladies actually used to live with each other a decade back, so they’re very familiar with one another and appear to be friends. Sometimes situations like that can result in fights looking more like sparring or grappling matches, but there’s no hard and fast rule. They’re both Judo black belts, so there’s always the potential for a grappling stalemate, but Ribas has been far more impressive on the mat and we like her chances on the ground against Pinheiro. However, Ribas has been pretty chinny and will now be dropping down a weight class, so the potential for her to get knocked out is always there. With that said, Pinheiro has not lived up to expectations and we like Ribas to win the grappling exchanges and come out victorious, most likely in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Amanda Ribas DEC” at +110.
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DFS Implications:
Ribas has averaged 97 DraftKings points in her six UFC wins and while she’s coming off a R2 TKO loss, just before that she scored a career-best 116 point DraftKings performance where she filled up the statsheet in a decision victory. Prior to that, she had never topped 106 points and only scored 75 and 79 points in two of her other three decision wins. While she does have two submission wins in the UFC, those were against two of the worst opponents they could find for her in Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. So we’re generally expecting Ribas to win by decision in competitive matchups and she’s scored well in half of her UFC decisions. When she can’t dominate fights on the ground, she hasn’t shown much of a ceiling, so it will be interesting to see how the grappling exchanges go here against a fellow Judo black belt. We have seen Pinheiro slow down in the back half of fights, which is encouraging for Ribas’ scoring potential down the stretch. These two are friends and used to live together, and sometimes those types of matchups end up disappointing and can look more like sparring matches. Hopefully that doesn't happen here, but that does add some uncertainty to the scoring ceiling for both fighters. At Ribas’ expensive price tag, she’ll need to really score well to be useful and she’s only topped 106 DraftKings points once in her career. There’s a good chance she scores decently here, but not quite enough to be useful. The odds imply Ribas has a 67% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Pinheiro seems to get worse every time we see her. She looked good for as long as her short UFC debut lasted before it was stopped for an illegal upkick and she won via DQ and scored 129 DraftKings points. Then she looked okay early on against Sam Hughes, but scored just 79 points in a decision. And most recently, she didn’t look good at all against Michelle Waterson-Gomez and scored just 51 points in a split-decision win. So who knows how she’ll look here, but her trajectory has been very concerning and she appears to be a fraud. With that said, Ribas has been prone to getting knocked out and is now cutting back down to 115 lb, so it’s not impossible that Pinheiro could catch her with something early and find her first UFC finish. But if that doesn’t happen, Pinheiro has shown suspect cardio and has never landed a finish beyond the first round or really scored well in a decision. At her cheap price tag it’s always possible she could serve as a value play in a decision win, but we’re treating her as more of a R1 KO or bust option. The odds imply Pinheiro has a 33% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Payton Talbott
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Fresh off a decision win on DWCS, Talbott defeated Tracy Cortez’s older brother, Reyes Cortez Jr., who has now lost two decisions on the show. Cortez actually won the first round on all three scorecards, before Talbott took over in the later rounds and finished the fight ahead 145-76 in significant strikes and 163-78 in total strikes, while successfully defending all but one of Cortez’s 17 takedown attempts. Prior to that decision win, Talbott had knocked out his first five opponents on the California regional scene. The last three of those wins came in the newly created Urijah Faber's A1 Combat promotion, after his first two fights were with the unknown FirePower Promotions MMA.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Talbott has five KO/TKO wins and one decision victory. All five of his knockouts came in the later rounds, with three in round two and two in round three. All six of his fights have lasted over a round and a half with his last five making it to the nine minute mark and three of those seeing round three.
Overall, Talbott is an offensively minded, one-dimensional striker, but did wrestle in high school so at least has a little bit of experience on the mats. However, his takedown defense hasn’t always looked great, nor has his grappling, even if he was able to defend takedowns in his last fight. By our count, he got taken down nine times in his second most recent fight. He also protects his hands with his face and is content with relying on his durability over any sort of defense, as he keeps his hands low and his chin up. He throws a ton of striking volume with reckless abandonment of what may be coming back his way and he’s just begging to get knocked out. He kind of fights like he’s sparring, expecting that his opponents won’t land anything powerful enough to really hurt him. He trains at the ultra prestigious Reno Academy of Combat, which has produced big names like Paige VanZant and…Paige VanZant. That gym also offers firearms training because you’ll probably need a gun to protect yourself if you train there. They list six featured fighters on their website. Two of them are children, one is a retired fighter who was “Contracted by Bellator” where he went 0-2, another guy is 1-2 as a pro, one is an OnlyFans model, and the other is Talbott, who recently graduated from the University of Nevada Reno in 2022 and just turned pro two years ago. In addition to training at a low-level gym with no high-level training partners, Talbott hasn’t shown a full commitment to growing as a fighter. He won on DWCS on August 8th and then two weeks later on August 22nd his UFC debut against Aguirre was announced. However, a week and a half after that he posted pictures of himself at Burning Man, which seems like an odd choice to start a training camp to prepare for the biggest moment of your life when you have so many gaping holes in your game. He also said that he’s currently working as a barista, so he’s clearly not training full time. He was born in Vegas and appears to have spent his life as a skater kid in Reno, and as far as we can tell he’s never ventured outside of his home town for training and only traveled the short distance to California for all of his regional fights. He’s got fraud written all over him, but to his credit, he makes for exciting fights and shows up ready to throw down every time the cage door closes.
Nick Aguirre
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Dan Argueta in his January UFC debut, Aguirre stepped into that 145 lb fight on just four days’ notice and was set up to fail. Nevertheless, he was able to find some success in the first round as he took Argueta’s back in the first round and looked somewhat close to locking in a choke. Aguirre predictably slowed down in the back half of the fight after taking the match on such short notice and having to cut a ton of weight in just a few days. He had also only seen the second round once before in his career, which was in his second most recent fight where he locked up a submission at the midway point of round two just four weeks before making his UFC debut. So that recent loss was the first time Aguirre had ever seen the third and he at least showed the ability to survive for 15 minutes against an opponent who had a full camp to prepare. That was the first loss of his career, after he finished his first seven opponents on the regional scene after just turning pro in April 2021. Aguirre said he wanted to get back inside the Octagon soon, but couldn’t get a fight, so he ended up taking a grappling match in April, which he won by decision.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Aguirre has three wins by KO/TKO and four submissions. Six of those finishes ended in round one, with the other ending in round two. Just keep in mind, Aguirre faced a very low level of competition before joining the UFC and only two of his seven wins came against fighters with winning records (2-1 and 4-2). Aguirre has competed anywhere from 135 lb to 155 lb in the past, but after making his UFC debut at 145 lb, he’ll be dropping back down to 135 lb here, which is where he plans on staying.
Overall, Aguirre is a former D2 college wrestler who aggressively looks to get fights to the mat and then hunt for early finishes. He was highly effective with that game plan on the regional scene but predictably struggled in his recent short notice UFC debut against a fellow wrestler. Aguirre was on the defensive for most of that match and uncharacteristically never even attempted a takedown, while Argueta got him down four times on six attempts. Aguirre was able to reverse one of those takedowns and notch a submission attempt, but overall it was a throwaway performance just to get him into the big show. He trains at the VFS Academy with several high level UFC fights like Belal Muhammad, Julianna Pena, Carlos Hernandez, and Saidyokub Kakhramonov, who he said is his primary training partner. His corner will be his head coach, his wrestling coach, and his jiu jitsu coach, so he’ll have plenty of help to walk him through the grappling exchanges at the Apex, where you can hear everything your coaches say. We haven’t gotten to see a ton of his striking, but he hasn’t looked great on the feet in the limited time he’s been there, so he does appear reliant on his grappling. With that said, he’s still just 27 years old and with a good team around him, he should be improving all the time. It’s been 10 months since he last competed, so he’s had a good amount of time to grow.
Fight Prediction:
Talbott will have a 1” height advantage, but Aguirre will have a 4” reach advantage and is two years older than the 25-year-old Talbott.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler battle between two young and unproven fighters. Neither of them have fought much in the way of competition and it remains to be seen if either of them can find success at the UFC level. Some people are comparing Talbott to Sean O'Malley, which we can sort of understand superficially but is completely laughable from a skill standpoint. Talbott has shown massive holes in both his defensive wrestling and his defensive striking and doesn’t have any legitimate coaches or training partners around him to help address those issues. He kicked off his training camp by attending Burning Man a week after he was given the date for his UFC debut and he seems only mildly interested in actually improving as a fighter and is littered with a sea of red flags. Meanwhile, Aguirre is training with a room full of killers and says he does nothing but focus on MMA 24/7. He’s saying all the right things and already has a UFC fight under his belt to grow from. While he didn’t look at all great in that fight, context is key, and many people will be quick to forget that he took that fight on four days’ notice up a weight class against a fellow wrestler who had a full camp to prepare. Now he’ll be facing a debuting one-dimensional striker and we expect this fight to play out much differently than Aguirre’s last one. While Aguirre has talked about how Talbott comes into every fight with the exact same game plan of pressuring his opponents with a ridiculous striking pace and trying to break them in the later rounds. That’s all true and makes Talbott incredibly predictable. However, Aguirre also comes into every fight with the exact same game plan of immediately taking opponents down and finishing them on the mat.
Whoever can successfully execute their game plan should win the fight, and the odds are mind-boggling. Aguirre has a massive grappling advantage and Talbott got taken down nine times in his second most recent fight and has shown very limited grappling skills. If Aguirre can get Talbott down and keep him there, he’s going to look like the massive favorite instead of a massive underdog, and he has a good shot at achieving that. However, if Talbott can keep the fight standing then he will have the advantage on the feet and would be live to either land another late finish or outstrike his way to a decision win. We don’t like what we’ve seen from Talbott and we like Aguirre’s chances of quickly getting him to the mat, where he’ll have a good shot at either locking up an early submission or at grinding out a decision win to pull off the huge upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Nick Aguirre ML” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Talbott is an ultra high-volume one-dimensional striker who lacks any sort of defense when it comes to both striking and grappling. He comes from a tiny gym in Reno with no legitimate coaches or training partners and he’s incredibly green with no system around him to help him grow as a fighter. Therefore our expectations for him are incredibly low and he should struggle mightily against real competition. However, he has shown the ability to rack up huge striking totals against low-level opponents, and Aguirre still needs to prove that he doesn’t fall into that category. With that said, even if Aguirre fails to show he belongs, he should still be looking to grapple, which will make it tougher for Talbott to land enough strikes to score well without a finish. Just look at Talbott’s recent decision win on DWCS. He was facing another grappler, and while Talbott was able to defend almost all of Reyes Cortez’s takedown attempts, while also impressively landing 145 significant strikes, he still “only” would have scored 92 DraftKings points. While that’s certainly not bad, it’s also not enough for him to return value as the most expensive fighter on this slate. That leaves him reliant on landing a knockout on DraftKings, although his style of fighting will typically score better on FanDuel, where that last win would have been good for 107 points. Talbott is the new shiny young thing in town and we expect a decent portion of the field to be enamored by his potential and overlook his inherent flaws. That should result in him being fairly popular and provides a solid leverage opportunity by fading him. Just keep in mind, he does have the potential to put up a huge score if he can rack up volume and find another well-timed knockout, leaving him with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes. The odds imply Talbott has an 84% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Aguirre is coming off of one of the least favorable positions you can be put in as a fighter when he made his short notice UFC debut up a weight class, on less than a week’s notice, and in a terrible stylistic matchup. He unsurprisingly lost that fight, yet the whole world seems to be judging him by that one ill-fated performance. He’ll now be moving back down to 135 lb and had 13 weeks to prepare for this next match, surrounded by high-level UFC fighters and knowledgeable coaches. And after facing a fellow wrestler in his debut, now Aguirre will be matched up against a one-dimensional striker who’s stepping into his own UFC debut. So stylistically this is night and day from his last matchup and Aguirre should have every opportunity to succeed, despite what the odds say. All seven of his pro wins came early, offering tons of upside if he can get this fight to the ground. However, that’s not to say this fight doesn’t come with some risk, and Aguirre has done nothing to show us that he can win a striking battle here, despite Talbott’s terrible striking defense. So his success will be reliant on his ability to get the fight to the ground and keep it there, but we like his chances. Aguirre’s grappling-heavy style leaves him with a safer floor on DraftKings, where he could score well even in a decision. However, he’s more reliant on landing a finish to put up a big FanDuel score. With that said, at his extremely cheap price tag, he would still have a good shot at serving as a value play on both sites with a win of any kind. The odds imply Aguirre has a 16% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Chase Hooper
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Continuing to trade wins and losses for his entire UFC career, Hooper has been consistently inconsistent since he joined the organization in 2019. However, after going 3-3 in his first six UFC fights at 145 lb, Hooper made the decision to move up to 155 lb for his last match and dominated at the new weight class, winning every round of the fight against a fellow grappler in Nick Fiore. Hooper showed improved striking in the fight and nearly finished Fiore on the feet late in round one, but simply ran out of time. Hooper continued to push a crazy pace for the full 15 minutes and finished ahead 149-51 in significant strikes and 217-58 in total strikes. Prior to that win, Hooper suffered the first early loss of his career in his final fight at 145 lb, when he got knocked out by Steve Garcia in just 92 seconds, amazingly getting knocked down three times in the brief match. Just before that defeat, Hooper put on an impressive performance in a third round TKO against a BJJ black belt in Felipe Colares. Just keep in mind, Colares was on the smaller side and bounced between 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career. That fight played out as an action packed grappling match where Hooper eventually wore Colares out and finished him with ground and pound midway through the third round. Hooper’s other two UFC wins also ended early, with a third round submission, and a first round TKO, both against low-level opponents.
Now 12-3-1 as a pro, Hooper has four wins by TKO, five submissions, and three decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a R1 TKO against Steve Garcia, with his other two losses going the distance. Hooper started his career at 155 lb, where he went 4-0 with four finishes, before moving down to 145 lb when he went on DWCS. However, Hooper was killing himself to get down to 145 lb, and he said he was cutting 40-45 lb and forced to only drink protein shakes and eat honey packets leading up to fights. He said he feels so much better at 155 lb and it showed in his recent performance. He’s always had the height to compete at 155 lb, it’s just been a matter of adding on the muscle as he grew into his frame. He turned pro at such a young age, a month after his 18th birthday, that clearly his body wasn’t fully developed, as anyone who’s followed his career can attest to. All four of Hooper’s UFC wins came against struggling opponents who were all cut following their losses to Hooper.
Overall, Hooper is a BJJ black belt with extremely fluid grappling, but he’s historically struggled with both his wrestling and his striking. However, he’s continued to improve his striking as he’s been working with Stephen Thompson in recent years. Hooper is still just 24 years old and is no longer completely depleting his body following his move up to 155 lb, which should also aid in his progression as a fighter. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Hooper landed just 9 of his 40 takedown attempts (22.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 16 attempts (50% defense). While his wrestling leaves something to be desired, he’s comfortable grappling off his back and can create grappling exchanges through a variety of entanglements, even without landing official takedowns. We’ve also seen him really push the pace in fights and he’ll stay busy on the mat landing ground strikes and going for submissions. While it’s not always pretty watching him fight, he’s found a way to make his unique style effective when he can avoid taking too much damage.
Jordan Leavitt
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Coming off a rare knockout win, Leavitt finished UFC newcomer Victor Martinez in the first round with a series of knees out of the Thai Clinch. The only other time Leavitt knocked someone out was in his UFC debut when he was credited with a knockout via slam in 22 seconds against a washed up Matt Wiman. After his last win, Leavitt said that was the first time he had ever anyone rocked on the feet, showing just how limited his striking has been. Prior to that fight, Leavitt got finished for the first time in the UFC when he traveled into enemy territory to take on Paddy Pimblett in London and was submitted in the second round. Leavitt has mostly struggled when facing grapplers, but has yet to lose to a striker in the UFC. In fairness, he was able to narrowly defeat a debuting grappler in Trey Ogden in a 2022 split decision just before his loss to Pimblett but it certainly wasn’t a convincing win and Leavitt nearly got submitted early on in that match. Leavitt also lost a decision to another grappler in Claudio Puelles in 2021. In between those two fights, Leavitt submitted a terrible Matt Sayles, who has zero grappling skills, was fighting up a weight class, and hadn’t competed in two years after getting pantsed by Bryce Mitchell in a first round twister submission loss. So two of Leavitt’s four UFC wins came against debuting fighters, one was against a washed up Matt Wiman who then immediately retired, and the last was against a terrible Matt Sayles, who was fighting up a weight class after two years away.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Leavitt has two wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. Both of his knockouts ended in round one, while his six submissions were split evenly across the first two rounds. The only time he’s ever been finished was in the second round submission loss to Paddy Pimblett, with his one other defeat going the distance. He fought his first four pro fights at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in February 2020 where he’s stayed since.
Overall, Leavitt is a former high-school wrestler and more or less of a one-dimensional grappler, but he has at least been trying to improve his striking and to his credit, did just finish someone on the feet for the first time. He throws a ton of kicks, but his boxing is still very much a work in progress. Leavitt hasn’t shown that he can outgrapple other grapplers, but has excelled when facing strikers. Between his six UFC fights and DWCS appearance, he landed 8 takedowns on 30 attempts (26.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 7 of their 10 attempts (30% defense). Leavitt is a Las Vegas native so he won’t have to travel anywhere for this fight, although he did recently move gyms from Syndicate to Xtreme Couture.
Fight Prediction:
Hooper will have a 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while being four years younger than the 28-year-old Jordan Leavitt.
This is an interesting stylistic matchup between two grapplers, who are both typically looking to get fights to the mat. Hooper is more of a jiu-jitsu guy and is a BJJ black belt, while Leavitt has a wrestling background and is just a purple belt. They’re both a work in progress on the feet, but Hooper has shown more improvements with his hands and will push a higher pace. Hooper has also been more impressive on the ground, both when it comes to threatening submissions and landing ground and pound. Hooper’s last two wins were both against grapplers, while Leavitt’s last two losses were against grapplers. So Hooper has shown the ability to come out ahead in this sort of matchup, while Leavitt has often struggled. Leavitt doesn’t have the power to knock Hooper out or the submission skills to submit him. He’s also a less active striker than Hooper and won’t threaten as many submissions, which leaves him with an incredibly thin path to victory that will require him squeaking out a couple of close rounds to win a decision. We don’t see that happening and this looks like an absolute nightmare matchup for Leavitt. Hooper has always been underrated, while Leavitt is overrated and we expect Hooper to win easily here. He has the submission skills to submit Leavitt, the pace and output to finish him with ground and pound, and the ability to outwork him in a decision victory. That makes it tougher to say how Hooper gets the job done, but five of his last six fights made it to the third round, with two of those ending in late finishes and three going the distance. So if history is any indicator, there’s a good chance this fight runs longer and Hooper either lands a third round finish or wins a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Chase Hooper ML” at -205.
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DFS Implications:
Hooper has averaged 112 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, and put up slate-breaking totals of 120 and 143 in his last two victories. He scored exactly 120 points on both DraftKings and FanDuel in his recent decision win, showing that he can score really well even without a finish. That was also his first fight up at 155 lb, which is encouraging for his potential moving forward, as he looked great at the new weight class. He had been absolutely killing himself to make 145 lb, surviving off of protein shakes and honey packets leading up to fights just to make the mark. The UFC really likes this kid and they generally give him favorable matchups, where his suspect striking defense won’t be exposed, with the one exception being his matchup against Steve Garcia. This looks like another good matchup for Hooper and he’s done well against fellow grapplers in the past, while Leavitt has struggled against grapplers. Hooper has the ability to push a crazy pace and fill up the stat sheet, making him a great play in all formats. Some people may be scared of playing Hooper against another grappler, but those are the matchups where he’s found the most success. The odds imply Hooper has a 64% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Leavitt has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins and is coming off of a rare TKO victory, which came against a low-level debuting opponent. Just before that, Leavitt got submitted by Paddy Pimblett, after winning a low scoring split decision against Trey Ogden who was making his UFC debut. That’s the only decision win of Leavitt’s UFC career and he only scored 78 DraftKings points and looked close to getting submitted in the first round. Leavitt’s other two UFC wins were a quick slam knockout against a half retired Matt Wiman and a second round submission over a terrible Matt Sayles who was fighting up a weight class after a long layoff. Leavitt only scored 86 points in that submission win and has relied on first round finishes to really score well to this point. He’s struggled against other grapplers and was taken down four times and controlled for 10 minutes by Claudio Puelles, who’s a one-dimensional kneebar specialist. That’s not very encouraging for Leavitt’s chances here and we don’t see him being able to capitalize on Hooper’s suspect striking defense. Hooper also looks like a better grappler than Leavitt, so we don’t see many paths to victory for Leavitt. And outside of his fight against Pimblett, Leavitt has generally been pretty popular in DFS, which just further diminishes his tournament appeal. However, if we’ve completely underestimated Leavitt, then Hooper’s poor striking defense and unimpressive takedown defense would theoretically offer a decent scoring ceiling for Leavitt. The odds imply Leavitt has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Michael Morales
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Coming off a decision win over a tough Max Griffin, Morales saw the judges for the first time in the UFC, but finished the fight strong. Morales actually lost the first round on all three scorecards, before turning it on in the later and dominating down the stretch. Prior to that, Morales kept his undefeated record intact with a third round TKO win over Adam Fugitt, who was making his UFC debut on just nine days’ notice. And similar to his last fight, Morales also lost the first round to Fugitt. However, it was Morales who was landing the bigger shots and that eventually caught up with Fugitt as Morales dropped him twice early in round three, just before the fight was stopped. Prior to that win, Morales landed a first round knockout in his UFC debut against Trevin Giles, who was dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in his career. That came just after Morales won a decision on DWCS to get his shot in the UFC.
Now 15-0 as a pro, Morales has 11 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. Seven of his 12 finishes occurred in the first round, four ended in round two, and his most recent came in round three. His lone submission win was a 2019 R1 triangle choke, and his last six finishes all ended in knockouts. Ten of his last 12 fights have ended early, but two of his last four went the distance and four of his last five made it out of the first round.
Overall, Morales is a former Ecuadorian national wrestling champion and both of his parents are judo black belts, but he relies primarily on his striking to win MMA fights. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 5 of his 11 takedown attempts (45.5% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just 2 of their 23 attempts (91.3 defense). However, after landing four takedowns on DWCS, he’s only landed one on just three attempts in his three UFC fights. Morales has good range and explosive striking, but he likes to feel out his opponents early on before looking for finishes once he settles in. Once he smells blood in the water, he’ll really let his hands go, but his patient approach has resulted in him losing the first round in each of his last two fights. If that continues, it’s bound to catch up with him eventually on the scorecards and you definitely don’t want to consistently rely on winning both rounds two and three to get your hand raised when you can’t find a finish. Another concern with him is that he keeps his chin high and his hands low, which leaves him reliant on his reflexes to remain out of danger, but also makes it harder for his opponents to see his punches coming. That high-risk approach to striking increases the chances of a knockout for both him and his opponents in his fights. He hasn’t faced the toughest competition in his career, but is notably coming off a win over longtime UFC veteran Max Griffin, which was Morales’ toughest test to date by a wide margin. Morales is still just 24 years old, and should be improving all the time, although it’s possible he’ll need to suffer his first career loss before he makes any wholesale changes.
Jake Matthews
19th UFC Fight (12-6)Matthews recently landed a second round submission against Darrius Flowers, who was making his short notice UFC debut and appears to be moving down a weight class for his next fight. That was Matthews’ first submission win since 2018 and he’s been far more content with keeping fights standing in most of his recent matches. That was in full display when he took on a heavy-handed striker in Matthew Semelsberger and refused to lean on his grappling, which resulted in Matthews getting dropped three times and just barely hanging on to lose a decision. And while Matthews landed a submission in his last fight, it only came after his opponent shot for a failed takedown and Matthews ended up in top position, so it wasn’t something that Matthews was actively seeking out. Matthews has traded wins and losses for his last five matches, and prior to losing to Semelsberger he notched a second round knockout against a Jello-brained Andre Fialho, in another fight where Matthews refused to lean on his grappling advantage. That’s Matthews’ only KO/TKO win since a 2015 post R2 doctor stoppage TKO victory. Just before that, Matthews got submitted by Sean Brady in the third round, after winning three straight decisions before that.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Matthews has five wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and six decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted three times, and has two decision losses. His lone knockout loss came in the first round of a 2016 fight against Kevin Lee when Matthews was still fighting down at 155 lb. He followed that up with a decision loss, also at 155 lb, before moving back up to 170 lb in 2017 where he started his career and has stayed since. He went 4-3 in the UFC at 155 lb, with all four of those wins coming early. Since moving up to 170 lb, he’s gone 8-3 with five of his eight wins going the distance. Two of his losses at 170 lb ended in third round submissions, with the other going the distance. Nine of his last 12 fights made it to the third round, with seven ending in decisions. He’s won five of the last six decisions he’s been to, but did lose his most recent one.
Overall, Matthews is a BJJ black belt and has always been pretty well-rounded, but he made noticeable improvements to his striking in his 13 months away following his loss to Sean Brady. In his 18 UFC fights, Matthews landed 23 of his 56 takedown attempts (41.1% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 10 of their 26 attempts (61.5% defense). After landing 22 takedowns on 53 attempts in his first 15 UFC fights, Matthews only landed one on just three attempts in his last three matches. And after averaging just 3.03 SSL/min in those first 15 fights, he’s averaged 4.63 SSL/min in his last three matches. So there’s been a clear shift in his focus from grappling to striking that shows up both on tape and in the numbers. Despite already having 18 UFC fights under his belt and joining the organization back in 2014, Matthews is still just 29 years old.
Fight Prediction:
Morales will have a 1” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while being five years younger than the 29-year-old Matthews.
Both of these two have grappling backgrounds, but they’ve both been entirely content with keeping fights standing lately. Matthews has a vast amount of UFC experience, while Morales is still early in his career, so it will be interesting to see how big of a factor that plays. Matthews has really improved his striking and power over the last couple of years and Morales’s chin up, hands down approach to defense is bound to get him in trouble one of these days. However, Morales will have a huge 6” reach advantage that will make it tougher for Matthews to find his range without putting himself in danger and we did just see him get dropped three times in his second most recent fight. So the potential for either guy to get knocked out is there, even if they only have one KO loss between them, which was in 2016 for Matthews. Given that Matthews is a BJJ black belt who prefers not to grapple these days, we’d be surprised to see anyone get submitted and this will likely go the distance if we don’t get a knockout. Despite Morales being a sizable favorite, there are plenty of reasons to like Matthews here. In addition to his experience advantage, Morales’ tendency to start slow and lose the first round increases the chances for Matthews to win a decision and Matthews has won five of the last six decisions he’s been to. And Morales is practically begging to get knocked out the way he keeps his hands low and his chin up, so we won’t be shocked if Matthews accepts that invitation. However, that high-risk approach to striking for Morales does result in him being more dangerous offensively, as it’s harder to see his punches coming. That leaves this as a more volatile matchup that will come down to who can land the bigger shots and whose chin holds up longer. They’re each capable of knocking out the other or winning a decision, and the odds appear far too wide. That leaves us with little choice but to take the plus money on Matthews when it comes to betting, but from a pure pick’em perspective we still give the slight advantage to Morales based on his reach advantage, and we’ll say he wins a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Jake Matthews ML” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Morales is coming off his first trip to the judges with the UFC, where he only scored 65 DraftKings points in a decision win over Max Griffin, who has historically struggled with his cardio late in fights. Prior to that, Morales scored 100 points in a third round knockout with the help of two knockdowns against Adam Fugitt, who was making his short notice UFC debut and still took the first round off Morales. And just before that, Morales scored 118 DraftKings points in his UFC debut in a first round knockout against Trevin Giles, who was moving down to 170 lb for the first time. So both of Morales’ UFC knockouts have come against opponents in potentially compromised states, with one guy dropping down a weight class and another making his short notice debut. Also concerning for Morales is that he lost the first round in each of his last two fights and tends to start slow, which leaves him reliant on winning both the second and third rounds when fights hit the scorecards. He also likes to keep his hands low and his chin high, increasing the chances of him getting knocked out. And with only one takedown landed in his three UFC appearances, he looks like an expensive KO or bust option in a tough matchup against an opponent who’s only been knocked out once in 25 pro fights. The odds imply Morales has a 74% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Matthews has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his 12 UFC wins, but has only reached the century mark in his last nine wins, which was in a 2018 first round submission that scored 103 points. So he hasn’t shown a huge ceiling, but his floor has been mostly solid, and he scored between 87 and 99 points in each of his last four wins. Despite the fact that he’s coming off a submission win, he’s largely abandoned his grappling in recent years and has only landed one takedown in his last four fights combined. He’s only been to one decision over that recent four fight stretch, which he lost, but even if it had gone his way he only would have scored 59 points on DraftKings. So without the grappling to prop up his scoring, he appears reliant on landing a finish to score well. Morales has never lost a fight, let alone been finished, but also hasn’t faced much in the way of competition and is still largely unproven. At Matthews’ cheap price tag, it’s certainly not impossible for him to serve as a value play in a decision win, but it would likely require all of the other cheap underdogs to fail. The odds imply Matthews has a 26% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Brendan Allen
13th UFC Fight (10-2)Winner of five straight, Allen recently submitted Bruno Silva in the first round of his last match. Both fighters seemed to hurt the other midway through the round as they exchanged strikes on the feet. Silva was able to stuff both of Allen’s two takedown attempts, but Allen dropped Silva in the final 90 seconds of the round and then quickly worked his way to a rear-naked choke on the mat. Earlier in 2023, Allen impressively pulled off the upset against a dangerous one-dimensional grappler in Andre Muniz. In that fight, Allen was able to win the first round on the feet, then reversed a takedown attempt of Muniz to win the second round on the mat. And it was Allen who emphatically took Muniz down in round three and then worked his way to his back and locked up a rear-naked choke with 35 seconds left on the clock, handing Muniz the first submission loss of his career. It wasn’t a very exciting fight and Muniz actually finished ahead 43-42 in significant strikes in the low-volume affair. Just before that win, Allen submitted Krzysztof Jotko in the first round, and Allen’s last three and four of his last five wins ended in rear-naked chokes. The one exception was a controversial decision win over Jacob Malkoun, where Allen got taken down seven times and controlled for over seven minutes, but somehow still won the fight. That came just after Allen submitted a washed up Sam Alvey, after getting knocked out by Chris Curtis in the second round back in December 2021. Allen’s only other UFC loss also ended in a second round knockout, against Curtis’ teammate, Sean Strickland.
Now 22-5 as a pro, Allen has five wins by TKO, 13 submissions, and four decision victories. All five of his knockouts came in round one, while he has five first round submissions, five in round two, and two in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice himself, both times in the second round, and submitted once, which occurred in his third pro fight against Trevin Giles back in 2016. Allen’s other two losses both went the distance in five-round LFA title fights against Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders. All five of his career losses were against current UFC fighters, but three of those occurred before he joined the UFC. Nine of his 12 UFC fights ended early (7-2), while he won all three of the decisions he’s been to with the organization. Six of his seven UFC finishes ended in submissions, while he also had a ground and pound TKO victory over Tom Breese in his second UFC appearance. He’s yet to knock anyone out on the feet and the last two times he knocked an opponent down, he finished them with a rear-naked choke.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Allen’s career, but first in the UFC. His first five-round fight was with the smaller Valor Fights promotion in 2016 and Allen won by second round submission. He then joined the LFA in 2017 and lost a pair of five-round decisions to Anthony Hernandez and Eryk Anders. However, he rebounded from those losses with a 2018 R3 submission in his next LFA title fight and followed that up with a five-round decision win just before he went on DWCS in 2019. So Allen is 3-2 in five-round fights, with two mid-round submission wins, but only went 1-2 in those three five-round decisions.
Overall, Allen is a BJJ black belt and is most dangerous on the mat, but also has pretty decent striking. He’s shown a low fight IQ at multiple points in the past and often fails to take the path of least resistance, stubbornly looking to fighter opponents where they’re the strongest. However, he did at least try to take Bruno Silva down in his last fight, so perhaps Allen is evolving to some degree and he’s only 27 years old. He’s a fairly patient striker on the feet, averaging just 3.96 SSL/min and 3.89 SSA/min, and he’s never landed more than two takedowns in the UFC. Between his 12 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 9 of his 21 takedown attempts (42.9% accuracy), while he was taken down by his opponents 12 times on 27 attempts (55.6% defense). Allen trains at Kill Cliff FC, so he’s got a good team around him, and at his young age he should still be improving all the time.
Paul Craig
17th UFC Fight (9-6-1)Craig took sloppy seconds on Andre Muniz, finishing him right after Allen got done with him. Craig got it done a little faster, with a late second round ground and pound TKO after nearly locking up a submission. However, Muniz did win the first round on all three scorecards, before Craig really put it on him in round two. That was Craig’s first fight of his career down at 185 lb, after previously competing at 205 lb. He lost his last two Light Heavyweight fights, which prompted the move down that he now says should have happened a long time ago. The most recent of those losses was a R1 TKO against Johnny Walker, which followed a decision defeat to Volkan Oezdemir. Leading up to those two losses, Craig finished four straight opponents, including first round finishes of Nikita Krylov and Jamahal Hill in the last two of those victories. He also famously has a last second submission win over Magomed Ankalaev on his record, as well as a late submission over Kennedy Nzechukwu, and several of his wins aged quite well.
Now 17-6-1 as a pro, Craig has four TKO wins and 13 submission victories. He’s been knocked out four times, all in R1, and submitted once in the third round. He’s only been to two decisions in 24 pro fights, one of which was his 2022 loss to Oezdemir and the other being a 2019 draw against Shogun Rua. Craig has only seen the third round five times in his career, with three of those ending in submission in the final 40 seconds (2-1). Fifteen of his pro fights ended in the first round (11-4), four ended in round two (4-0), and three more ended in round three (2-1).
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Craig’s career, and not only has he never been to the championship rounds, he very rarely even makes it to the end of round three.
Overall, Craig has historically been a very one-dimensional grappler who loves working off his back. He has no problem pulling guard to get fights there and he’s a BJJ black belt who excels at throwing up armbars and triangle chokes. In his 16 UFC fights, Craig only landed 16 of his 69 takedown attempts (23.2% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 8 of their 14 attempts (42.9% defense). While Craig rarely relies on his striking, he has recently talked about how he’s been working a lot on his stand up game and we did see some improvements in his last fight, although he was fighting a fellow one-dimensional grappler so it’s easy to look better. He’s still never landed more than 51 significant strikes in any of his 17 Octagon appearances, and has only topped 40 once. Similarly, he has only once absorbed more than 59 significant strikes in a match, which occurred in his lone decision loss when he absorbed 72. His unique style of offensive grappling off his back typically means he’s losing fights until he’s not, which leaves him reliant on landing finishes to come out victorious. Despite not having a ton of power behind his strikes, three of his last four wins bizarrely ended in TKOs, with two ground and pound finishes and a late stoppage following an armbar attempted that dislocated Jamahal Hill’s elbow and turned what should have been a submission into a TKO. So all three of those TKOs were on the mat and he’s never looked like any sort of threat to finish opponents on the feet.
Fight Prediction:
Craig will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Allen is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Craig.
Both of these two are solid grapplers, but they have completely different styles on the mat. Craig loves working off his back, where he has an extremely dangerous guard, but spends a lot of time being controlled. Meanwhile, Allen does his best work from top position or on the backs of his opponents. However, we did just see Craig take Andre Muniz down and finish him with ground pound from top position so maybe he’s diversifying his approach. Nevertheless, they’re both dangerous BJJ black belts, which could result in more of a grappling wash. Allen is the superior striker and if he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to outland his way to victory and likely land a knockout. While Allen only has one KO/TKO win since 2018, which was back in 2020 and came on the mat, Craig has been pretty chinny and is now cutting an additional 20 lb. We’re expecting this to be a lower volume tactical battle and neither one of them has been in a five-round UFC fight before. Allen at least had five-round experience before he joined the UFC, but that was almost five years ago. So they both could try to pace themselves some, which would increase the chances of this running longer. They’ve each only been submitted once in their careers and both guys have the grappling skills to escape danger if this does hit the mat. So the only way we see it ending in a submission is if someone is badly hurt first and it’s more of a club and sub situation. We like Allen to win, most likely by knockout, but there’s a chance he wins a boring, low-volume decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Brendan Allen KO or DEC” at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Allen has averaged a respectable 97 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, with five scores of 102 or more. He’s coming off a career-best 118 point performance in a first round submission win, however, he’s never topped 102 points in a fight that made it out of the first round. He only scored 79 DraftKings points in a late third round submission win over Andre Muniz, which was a very similar stylistic matchup to this one against Craig. That’s concerning for Allen’s scoring potential here and likely leaves him reliant on finding a first round finish to really score well. He only averages 3.96 SSL/min and has never landed more than two takedowns in a fight. And if he’s smart (he’s not), he won’t even want to take Craig down. As the second most expensive fighter on the card, it will be easy for him to get priced out of winning lineups, and even if he does finish Craig in the first round, he’ll also need to outscore all of the other high priced options. That leaves this as a very fadable main event. The odds imply Allen has a 78% chance to win, a 66% chance to land a finish, and a 32% chance it comes in round one.
Craig has averaged 96 DraftKings points in his nine UFC wins and has a 100% finishing rate in all 17 of his pro victories. His last six wins all ended in the first two rounds and scored at least 91 points, but he did have a pair of third round submission victories earlier in his career that each only scored 69 points. While he relies on getting fights to the ground to win, he’s happy to work off his back, which is far from ideal in DFS. He also only averages 2.57 SSL/min and has just a 23% takedown accuracy, which leaves him entirely reliant on landing finishes in the first two rounds to score well. As the second cheapest fighter on the card, it’s not impossible that he could still be useful with a later finish, but it would likely require most of the other underdogs to fail. Allen is a BJJ black belt and hasn’t been submitted since his third pro fight, so this looks like a tough spot for Craigh to find the early submission he needs to win and score well. That leaves us content with fading both sides of this fight. The odds imply Craig has a 22% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
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Chase Hooper OVER 80.5 Pts
