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Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Kevin Jousset
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut as the first of six City Kickboxing fighters on this card, Jousset is coming off a third round ground and pound TKO win for the Hex Fight Series Welterweight belt. Just before that, Jousset won the Hex Fight Series Middleweight belt before dropping back down to 170 lb to capture his second title with the organization. While becoming double champ is always impressive, the fights themselves weren’t the most exciting performances. He won the Middleweight belt in a five-round split decision against a 40-year-old opponent who hadn’t fought in four years and also hasn't fought since. Then he took on Kitt Campbell, who was just 2-3 in his previous five fights and landed a lot of good shots on Jousset, before getting finished with ground and pound midway through the fight. That is Jousset’s only finish in his last five fights, after he fought to four straight decisions (3-1), with three of those being split. While his grappling prowess is often brought up, Jousset took on a striker in Jack Della Maddalena earlier in his career, and got taken down three times by Della Maddalena and beat up on the mat until the doctor stopped the fight after the second round.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Jousset has four wins by KO/TKO, and four decision victories. His first three knockout wins ended in round one, with two of those coming in his first two pro fights, while his most recent TKO victory ended in round three. He also has one R2 TKO loss and one decision defeat.
Overall, Jousset was born in France but trains at City Kickboxing in New Zealand. He’s decently well-rounded but doesn’t really stand out as exceptional anywhere. He’s a Judo black belt, but has never submitted anybody and got outgrappled by Jack Della Maddalena. He throws a lot of kicks and does a decent job of utilizing his size, but he’s not the most explosive striker. He’s been fighting to a ton of decisions on the regional scene, which isn’t a great sign for his finishing potential at the UFC level.
Kiefer Crosbie
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Also making his UFC debut, Crosbie’s last four fights all ended in round one (2-2) and he’s coming off a R1 TKO win over former UFC fighter Alex Oliveira. Just before that he knocked out a stat padder in Brian Lo-A-Njoe, who’s lost four straight and 8 of his last 10 fights. Prior to that, Crosbie suffered back-to-back first round losses in Bellator, with a post R1 TKO doctor stoppage, followed by a submission loss. He then got released by Bellator after going 4-3 with the organization and was forced to fight in some random regional promotions. He then had an exhibition boxing match on July 15th, where he won a decision less than two months ago.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Crosbie has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. Three of his five career knockout wins came in his first four pro fights from 2016 to 2018, while his two submission wins occurred in 2016 and 2019. His only two finishes since 2019 were against a terrible 6-12-3 opponent and a washed up Alex Oliveira. He has one post R1 TKO loss via doctor stoppage, one submission defeat, and one DQ loss, with all three of his defeats coming in five minutes or less. Crosbie started his career at 170 lb, but slowly worked his way down to 155 lb as his Bellator career wound down. He then moved all the way up to a 177 lb Catchweight in his next fight, before settling back in at 170 lb for his last match, where his UFC debut will also be.
Overall, Crosbie is a wild Irish brawler who trains at SBG Ireland, but tends to run a little hot and cold. Once he gets going down hill he’s a tough guy to stop and throws lengthy combinations of punches and elbows. He’s definitely not the most technical fighter or the most durable and he’s pretty hittable himself. He’s already 33 years old and his style of fighting is definitely not conducive to a long career, so it’s fair to wonder how many years he has left in the tank. He’ll also mix in a little grappling and isn’t helpless on the mat, but he’s more focussed on his striking typically. Crosbie definitely makes for exciting fights, especially when he has a willing dance partner, so it makes sense why the UFC brought him on.
Fight Prediction:
Jousset will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while also being three years younger than Crosbie.
This is a clash of styles, as Jousset is a slower paced decision grinder with a Judo background, while Crosbie is an exciting brawler. It will be interesting to see which style prevails, but as the old expression goes, it takes two to tango. If Jousset comes in looking to control the distance using his kicks and reach advantage, while also tying things up when Crosbie gets close, it’s easy to see him ruining this fight and outpointing his way to a decision win. However, if Crosbie can coerce Jousset into a more uptempo striking battle, then this could be a really exciting fight. We’re leaning towards the former and Jousset’s size advantage, combined with his Judo background could give Crosbie trouble in turning this into the fight he wants it to be. However, Jousset has also looked pretty hittable and if Crosbie can turn this into more of a brawl, he’ll have a decent shot at knocking him out and pulling off the upset. We see a lot of holes in Crosbie’s game, but we’re also not sold on Jousset, so overall this looks like a volatile matchup between two debuting fighters who didn’t have much time to prepare for one another, as this fight was only announced on August 24th, just 16 days before the event. Considering Jousset’s second most recent fight was at 185 lb and Crosbie’s third most recent fight was down at 155 lb, we could definitely see the size of Jousset being too much for Crosbie. Jousset will also have the luxury of being surrounded by teammates on this card and will have a much shorter trip to Australia than Crosbie. So overall, everything seems to be working in his favor and we’ll say he’s able to slow Crosbie down and grind out a decision win, as long as he’s able to avoid eating too many clean punches/elbows.
Our favorite bet here is “Jousset DEC” at +300.
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DFS Implications:
Jousset is a slower paced fighter who has seen the third round in five straight fights, with four of those going the distance. That’s not at all encouraging for his DFS potential, but he will be going against an uptempo brawler who could potentially force Jousset into more of a firefight. That’s the only reason we have any interest in playing Jousset here, but there are still lots of ways for him to score well in a win, and winning alone is far from a sure thing. It’s always tricky when you have a fighter you generally want to fade, but they’re in a high upside matchup, and that’s exactly what we have here with Jousset. That just means this is a more volatile spot and if you’re making a large amount of lineups it makes sense to have some exposure, but he’s certainly not a top priority. The odds imply Jousset has a 59% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Crosbie is an aggressive brawler who’s style of fighting is perfectly suited for DFS production, but he’s facing an opponent who likes to slow fights down and this doesn’t look like the best matchup for Crosbie’s style to prevail. With that said, it remains to be seen who will be able to dictate the pace and it’s possible that Crosbie can force Jousset into a brawl where whoever wins should score well. It’s a complete clash of style, which just adds a lot of uncertainty, but the upside for Crosbie is still there. If he can close the distance on his larger opponent, Crosbie should be able to land shots from the inside and Jousset hasn’t been all that impressive. That leaves Crosbie as an interesting tournament play, just keep in mind it’s more likely than not he fails here. The odds imply Crosbie has a 41% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Shane Young
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Coming in sideways, Young has lost three straight fights, with his last win occurring all the way back in 2019 against an opponent who went 1-3 in the UFC. Young has also only fought once in the last 30 months and has been plagued by inactivity. His most recent loss came in a decision on the last Australia card against Blake Bilder, who easily took Young down in the first round and outlanded him on the feet in all three rounds. Young originally joined the UFC back in 2017 on a five fight winning streak and made his short notice debut against Alexander Volkanovski. Young survived to lose a decision, which we suppose could be taken as a moral victory in such a tough matchup. He bounced back from the loss with a late R2 KO in his next fight against Ronaldo Dy, who entered the match with a 1-2 UFC record and was released by the organization afterwards. Following his first UFC win, Young won a high-volume decision against a struggling Austin Arnett, who was cut following the loss. Young then got knocked out in the first round by a debuting Ludovit Klein, leading up to a decision loss to Omar Morales in his second most recent fight.
Now 13-7 as a pro, Young has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. Seven of his 10 finishes occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and two came in round three. The only time he’s ever been finished was a 2020 R1 KO, while his other six losses all went the distance.
Overall, Young wrestled in high-school and also has a background in boxing and kickboxing. He’s part of the City Kickboxing Team in New Zealand, so he has a good team around him, but it hasn’t been showing in his performances. While he demonstrated the ability to land a good amount of striking volume in his two UFC wins (back in 2018 and 2019), it’s been four and a half years since Young landed more than 80 significant strikes in a fight. In his six UFC appearances, Young landed 3 of his 16 takedown attempts (18.8% accuracy), while getting taken down 8 times on 23 opponent attempts (65.2% defense). Every opponent who has tried to take him down has been successful. UPDATE: Young missed weight by 3.75 lb!
Gabriel Miranda
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Miranda is a year removed from a second round TKO loss in his short notice UFC debut against Benoit St. Denis and will now be dropping down from 155 lb to 145 lb. Miranda was setup to fail in that last fight as he took on the pride of Paris in enemy territory and St. Denis has been running through everyone on the Paris cards. Miranda was able to take St. Denis down once, but he then wilted under the pressure as the round went on before getting immediately finished in round two. Prior to that, Miranda had submitted three straight opponents in the opening six minutes of fights, although there’s some question regarding the legitimacy of some of his opponents/wins with the “Face the Danger” organization. However, he also went 2-1 with a legitimate organization in Brave FC.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Miranda has one win by R1 TKO (2013) and 15 submission victories. Of his 16 early wins, 14 ended in round one, with the other two ending in the opening minute of round two and he’s never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes. He has two TKO losses (R2 2022 & R1 2016) and lost all four of the decisions he’s been to. Miranda has fought at both 145 lb and 155 lb in his career, but most of his fights have been at 155 lb.
Overall, Miranda is a BJJ black belt and submission ninja with a sick arm-in guillotine choke. He’ll also throw up a variety of other submissions from all types of positions. He’ll gladly jump guillotine or flop to his back to try and get fights to the mat and is a creative grappler who doesn’t fight to win decisions (clearly). He hasn’t shown much in the way of striking or durability and when he can’t find an early finish he often wilts under the pressure of his opponents. He still needs to prove that he can finish opponents at the UFC level and most of his career was spent choking out tackling dummies. He landed one of his three takedown attempts in his UFC debut, while also getting taken down once himself.
Fight Prediction:
Miranda will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This is a volatile matchup between two low-level fighters that could go a lot of ways. If Miranda can take Young down early on he’ll have a good shot at submitting him. However, if he’s unable to get Young out of there in the opening 5-6 minutes, he’ll likely fade pretty hard and will be at serious risk of getting finished himself. However, Young hasn’t looked even remotely dangerous and it’s possible we could see this play out with Miranda flopping around on his back and Young casually kicking his legs until the ref stands Miranda back up. A lot of that will depend on how the cut down to 145 lb goes for Miranda and how the large weight miss goes for Young. Both of those factors add some additional volatility to this already volatile matchup. We’re leaning towards Miranda locking up a first round submission based on how bad Young has been combined with his large weight miss, but we won’t be at all surprised if Miranda gasses out trying to finish Young and then turns into a pumpkin in round two.
Our favorite bet here is “FDGTD” at -175.
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DFS Implications:
Young is a bad fighter who hasn’t won in four and a half years, but this matchup isn’t about him, it’s about his opponent. If Young can simply survive the first round, he could be looking at a teed up second round finish as Miranda has never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes. Whether or not Young has it in him to both survive a round and then finish a corpse remains to be seen, but the opportunity is at least there. Young did put up a big score (122 DraftKings points) back in 2018 in his lone UFC finish, which happened to come by R2 TKO, and a similar result here is entirely possible. We certainly can’t trust Young’s scoring floor, but the ceiling is there and his recent struggles will result in him being lower owned despite this high-upside matchup. That’s incredibly important on this smaller slate where it will be tougher to create unique lineups. The odds imply Young has a 57% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Miranda is an early submission or bust play who has yet to finish anybody decent and could still potentially be a complete fraud. However, all 16 of his career wins ended in under six minutes, so his upside is undeniable and now he’s facing another low-level opponent who hasn’t won a fight since early 2019. This is a much easier matchup than Miranda’s last one and he also moved down from 155 lb to 145 lb. While that could drain his cardio and durability even more, it could also allow him to be the bigger/stronger fighter and more easily control opponents on the mat. That leaves him with an incredibly wide range of scoring outcomes, and he loves to jump guillotine, which isn’t a great way to put up a huge score. However, at his cheap price tag, if he wins, he still likely ends up in winning lineups, so he’s a solid tournament option. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Charlie Radtke
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on a four fight winning streak, Radtke recently won the Cage Fury FC Welterweight belt in a first round submission. That’s just the second submission victory of his career and his first since his 2012 pro debut. Following that 2012 victory, Radtke had two fights canceled in 2013 and then didn’t book another match until 2017, nearly five years after his pro debut. He landed a second round knockout in his return to action, before losing a decision to Austin Hubbard in his next match, followed by another decision loss. He bounced back with a decision win of his own, but then got knocked out in the second round. After going just 1-3 over that four fight stretch, he decided to move up from 155 lb to 170 lb in 2021 when he joined the CFFC. The move in weight classes worked out well for him, as he rattled off four straight wins, with three of those coming early, before getting his call up to the UFC.
Now 7-3 as a pro, Radtke has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2021 R2 KO via body shot in his final fight at 155 lb before he moved up to 170 lb. His other two losses both went the distance. His last two fights ended in round one and four of his last five ended in the first two rounds. He only weighed in at 168.8 lb for his last fight, and used to fight at 155 lb, so he’s not the heaviest Welterweight, but he is pretty muscular and strong.
Overall, Radtke is a powerful striker who didn’t attempt any takedowns in his last four fights since moving up to 170 lb, but did look to grapple in his two fights prior to that when he was fighting down at 155 lb. He’s got good power, but doesn’t land a ton of volume. While he hasn’t been looking for any takedowns lately, when fights have ended up on the mat, he’s shown decent submission skills, and he’s actually a BJJ black belt and the jiu jitsu coach at Team Evolution Naples. It will be interesting to see if he looks to grapple more in this next matchup.
Mike “Blood Diamond” Mathetha
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Fourteen months removed from a decision loss to Orion Cosce, Diamond is still in search of his first UFC win and has looked absolutely helpless on the mat. He got taken down three times by Cosce and controlled for nine and half minutes, after getting submitted in the first round of his UFC debut against Jeremiah Wells. Prior to that, Diamond won his first three pro fights on the New Zealand and Australian regional scenes, before getting the call up to the UFC with very little experience under his belt due to his association with City Kickboxing and Israel Adesanya.
Still just 3-2 as a pro, Diamond has one win by TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. His lone TKO win came in the second round of his 2017 pro debut against an opponent who’s now 2-4, while his one submission victory was against an opponent fighting for the first and only time as a pro. Diamond has also been submitted once himself and has one decision loss.
Overall, Diamond is a one-dimensional striker who has shown zero grappling skills. He claims to have been working on that in his year away from competing, but at 35 years old it’s hard to see him making many major improvements. In his two UFC fights, he was taken down four times on 13 attempts (69.2% defense), while he failed to land the only attempt of his own. Diamond has an awkward striking style, as he lands strikes from all angles and throws up all sorts of unorthodox kicks. He’ll fight out of both stances but his left hand is his power hand, which can be sneaky when he’s fighting out of the conventional stance.
Fight Prediction:
Diamond will have a 2” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, while Radtke is two years younger than the 35-year old Diamond.
The only real question we have here is whether or not Radtke will be looking to wrestle. Since moving up to 170 lb for his last four fights, he hasn’t attempted a single takedown. However, he is a BJJ black belt and coaches jiu jitsu, and when fights do end up on the mat he’s shown the ability to lock up submissions. Diamond has looked helpless on the ground, so that is clearly the path of least resistance for Radtke, but he’s also dangerous on the feet and it’s always possible he’s simply fallen in love with his striking. However, even if he’s not looking to wrestle much lately, a club and sub is very possible, and he showed in his last match that he’s happy to look for chokes on the mat when he finds himself there. However, four of Radtke’s last five finishes ended in knockouts and he has the ability to finish this fight on the feet or the mat. The fact that he’s making his UFC debut in enemy territory on a PPV card does add some level of uncertainty and it’s always possible the moment will be too big for him, but we like Radtke’s chances of finding a finish in the first two rounds. It will be interesting to see if Diamond comes in so concerned with defending takedowns that he leaves himself exposed to getting knocked out, and we kind of like Radtke’s chances of winning by R1 KO, despite him being a BJJ black belt and how terrible Diamond has been on the mat.
Our favorite bet here is “Radtke/Diamond Fight Doesn't Start R3” at -158.
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DFS Implications:
Radtke is making his UFC debut following back-to-back first round finishes and has shown the ability to put opponents away both on the feet and the mat. He’s a BJJ black belt but also has solid power in his hands, although doesn’t land a ton of striking volume and hasn’t attempted a takedown in any of his last four fights. That leaves him entirely reliant on landing well timed finishes to score well and at his expensive price tag there are lots of ways for him to win and still get left out of the optimal lineup. While he hasn’t been looking to wrestle lately, this is the perfect matchup for him to get back to his grappling if he chooses to do so and Blood Diamond has been helpless on the mat. However, we can’t count on Radtke taking the path of least resistance, which adds some volatility to this matchup. The odds imply Radtke has a 74% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Blood Diamond is a wild one-dimensional striker, who lands a decent amount of striking volume in space but doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling. He hasn’t competed in 14 months after getting out grappled in each of his first two UFC fights, but claims he’s made some improvements to his wrestling. Considering how bad his wrestling was before, even an improved version would still likely be terrible so we’re not counting on him suddenly looking much better. Working in his favor, he’s fighting close to home against a UFC newcomer who will be flying around the world for his debut. You never know how Radtke will react to being under the bright lights and if the moment is too big for him then it’s possible Diamond can connect with one of his funky attacks and pull off the massive upset. We’re certainly not expecting that, but it’s far from impossible and it makes sense to have some exposure to the low-owned Diamond in tournaments. The odds imply Diamond has a 26% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Nasrat Haqparast
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Haqparast had been scheduled to face Sam Patterson, but he dropped out and Quinones was announced as the replacement 17 days out.
Haqparast is a year removed from a decision win over John Makdessi and his last five fights all went the distance (3-2). Makdessi actually outlanded Haqparast 73-64 in significant strikes, but Haqparast closed the fight out with a pair of takedowns to secure the decision victory, and two of the judges even scored round one for him, despite Makdessi outlanding him 22-12 in strikes over the first five minutes. Prior to that, Haqparast lost a pair of decisions to Bobby Green and Dan Hooker, after starting off 5-2 in the UFC. Only two of his 10 UFC fights ended early, which were a 2020 R1 KO loss to Drew Dober and a 2019 R2 KO win over Joaquim Silva. It’s been over four years since Haqparast finished anybody, with his second most recent early win coming all the way back in 2017.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Haqparast has nine wins by KO/TKO (6 in R1, 2 in R2 & 1 in R3) and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has three decision defeats. All nine of Haqparast’s pre-UFC fights ended early (8-1 only losing his first pro fight). Haqparast has spent the majority of his pro career in the 155 lb division, but he did move up to 170 lb for a three fight period in 2014 and 2015. He notably went 3-0 at 170 lb before moving back down to 155 lb in 2016.
Overall, Haqparast is a one-dimensional striker who’s failed to land a takedown in eight of his last nine fights, but did land two in the third round of his last match. He’s known for his boxing, but got owned on the feet by Bobby Green in his second most recent fight. He averages 5.06 SSL/min and 4.72 SSA/min. Haqparast trains out of Tristar, where they preach passiveness and patience, so it’s no surprise that almost all of Haqparast’s fights go the distance.
Landon Quinones
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Quinones recently got submitted 55 seconds into his first fight on The Ultimate Fighter, but the UFC quickly brought him on nonetheless when they needed someone to fill a spot on relatively short notice. Prior to his loss on TUF, Quinones won five straight fights on the regional scene against a very low level of competition. While four of those five wins ended in knockouts, all of those finishes/wins should be taken with a massive grain of salt. No one he had been facing resembled a UFC fighter and when he did finally face someone with UFC experience he immediately got finished.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Quinones has five wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision win. While he just got submitted on TUF, that technically counts as an exhibition match and he’s never officially been finished in a pro fight, with his one loss going the distance. Ironically, his recent exhibition match on TUF was the closest thing to a truly legitimate pro fight he’s ever been part of. Quinones started his pro career in 2017 at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in 2020.
Overall, Quinones is a low-level fighter who lacks explosive power or legitimate grappling skills. He likes to wear away at his opponents with unimposing shots, while occasionally mixing in takedowns. However, he doesn’t actually look dangerous anywhere and we don’t see him lasting long in the UFC. In fairness to him, he’s still just 27 years old and should be still improving, but he’s given us zero indications that he’s ready for the UFC and he’s likely in store for a rude awakening in his upcoming debut.
Fight Prediction:
Haqparast will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach.
This will be a major step down in competition for Haqparast and Quinones has no business being in the UFC. The only question we have here is if Quinones is so bad that Haqparast will finally land a finish, or if he’ll continue to outpoint his way to victory. We’ve seen Quinones get dropped by children although he’s never actually been knocked out. However, the level of competition he’s been facing has been so, so, so low that if Haqparast can’t knock him out the UFC should just immediately cut both guys. We definitely don’t ever trust Haqparast to finish anybody and simply looking at his record will likely drive most people to betting his decision line. However, he has to get a knockout here if he wants to be able to look at himself in the mirror on Sunday and we’ll say he gets it done.
Our favorite bet here is “Haqparast ITD” at +135.
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DFS Implications:
Haqparast is entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well in DFS and he’s only landed three takedowns in his 10 UFC fights. He’s averaged 81 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with five of those going the distance. Only once has he topped 88 points, which was in a 2018 decision, where he landed a career best 124 significant strikes along with a knockdown and scored 100 points. He’s generally not someone we’re excited about playing in DFS, although this will be a massive step down in competition for him and if he was ever going to get another finish this would be the time. He should also be low owned at his high price tag, which adds to his tournament appeal. If he can’t get a finish here, there’s no point in keeping him on the UFC roster. The odds imply Haqparast has a 79% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Quinones was one of the worst fighters on the last season ofThe Ultimate Fighter, but the UFC decided to bring him onto the roster anyways when they needed to fill a slot on short notice. He faced absolutely terrible competition throughout his career and then got submitted in under a minute in his first fight on TUF. This is not a guy that should ever win a UFC fight and we have zero interest in playing him in DFS or continuing to waste anyones’ time talking about him. The odds imply Quinones has a 21% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Jamie Mullarkey
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Mullarkey will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss as a -500 favorite against Muhammad Naimov, who was making his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice and up a weight class. Mullarkey was doing good in the fight until he recklessly leaned into a clean shot in the second round that put him down. Prior to that, Mullarkey won an uncharacteristically slower paced decision over a debuting Francisco Prado, after winning a close split decision over Michael Johnson, after getting knocked out in the second round once again by a surging Jalin Turner just before that. After starting out 0-2 in the UFC, Mullarkey won four of his last six fights and just before his loss to Turner, Mullarkey knocked out both Devonte Smith and Khama Worthy, after losing decisions to Brad Riddell and Fares Ziam in his first two UFC fights—although he arguably should have gotten the nod against Ziam.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Mullarkey has 10 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and three decision victories. Five of those knockouts ended in round one, three came in round two, and two ended in round three. However, three of his last four finishes ended in round two. He’s also been knocked out four times himself and has two decision losses. One of those KO losses notably came against Alexander Volkanovski before they joined the UFC. While Mullarkey’s last two wins both went the distance, his previous 12 victories all ended early. His last six finishes all ended in knockouts, with his three submission wins all occurring early in his career in 2014 and 2015. Mullarkey competed at 145 lb until 2018, when he moved up to 155 lb.
Overall, Mullarkey is a well-rounded fighter and a BJJ black belt but has fallen in love with his striking and hasn’t submitted anybody since 2015. In his eight UFC fights, Mullarkey landed 16 takedowns on 45 attempts (35.6% accuracy), while getting taken down himself on 3 of 12 opponent attempts (75% defense). He’s previously shown the ability to take a beating and keep on going, although that wasn’t the case in his last match, so we’ll see if his chin is beginning to deteriorate after all of the damage he’s taken in his career. With that said, he’s still just 29 years old and is on the right side of 30. We saw a really conservative game plan form him the last time he fought in front of his home Australian crowd, so it will be interesting to see what his approach will be here coming off a knockout loss and back in Australia.
John Makdessi
20th UFC Fight (11-8)A year removed from a decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast, the 38-year-old Makdessi is stepping into the final fight on his contract following hand surgery and it’s hard to know how much he has left in the tank. He’s only fought once in the last 29 months and had only been competing once a year before that going back to 2016. His last six fights all went the distance and he hasn’t finished anybody since 2015 when he knocked out Shane Campbell in the first round. Campbell notably went 1-4 in the UFC and was released in 2016 following his third early loss. Makdessi’s only other early wins in the UFC were a 2013 R1 KO of Renee Forte, who was released one fight later after he went 1-3 with the organization, and a 2011 R3 KO of Kyle Watson, who went 1-1 in the UFC and was released following the loss. Makdessi’s only win of any kind since 2019 was a split decision over a debuting Ignacio Bahamondes. Interestingly, three of Makdessi’s last eight decisions have been split (2-1).
Now 18-8 as a pro, Makdessi has nine wins by KO and nine decision victories. His last five wins all went the distance and six of his nine career finishes came in his first six pro fights. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has five decision defeats.
Overall, Makdessi is an aging striker who’s never landed a takedown in any of his 19 UFC fights. He’s put up big striking totals at times, but overall has been somewhat inconsistent, but averages 5.52 SSL/min and 4.04 SS/min. He’s content with standing and trading in close quarters and is a black belt in Shotokan Karate and Taekwondo. He trained at Tristar Gym until 2018 when he moved to Roufusport, and now he’s in Arizona at Fight Ready. He claims he will be more aggressive in this fight and less content with counter striking, but only time will tell.
Fight Prediction:
Mullarkey will have a 4” height advantage and 6” reach advantage, while also being nine years younger than the 38-year-old Makdessi.
This fight has the potential to go a few different ways. Mullarkey is the more well-rounded fighter and could rely on his wrestling against the one-dimensional striker in Makdessi or he could do what he typically does and take part in more of a striking battle with him. We’ve seen Mullarkey get very cautious at recent times on the feet, but he’s historically been more willing to take part in a brawl. Considering he just got knocked out, we’re guessing that he’ll be less inclined to take the brawling route here, but you never know and he’s definitely not the smartest guy. We’re expecting him to try and use his size advantage to patiently strike from the outside, while mixing in some takedown attempts, but he’s a bit of a wildcard and even when he has a game plan it often goes out the window. If Makdessi comes in more aggressive, as he’s said he plans to, perhaps he can coerce Mullarkey into a brawl, which could favor the superior striking defense of Makdessi. However, if Mullarkey fights smart he should be able to grind out a decision win by leaning on his wrestling and size advantage. Mullarkey by decision will be the pick, but he’s a tough guy to trust these days.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -186.
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DFS Implications:
Mullarkey has relied on landing finishes to score well, and his last two wins both ended in lower scoring decisions, where he returned DraftKings totals of just 81 and 69. However, his previous two UFC victories both ended in knockouts and he put up scores of 109 and 128. Now he’s coming off a knockout loss and facing a solid striker in Makdessi, who’s 38 years old, coming off hand surgery, and potentially on the verge of retirement depending on how this fight goes. That leaves a lot to unpack, as Mullarkey could very well come in with a more conservative approach after getting put down in his last match, but targeting aging fighters on the verge of retirement is also typically a good strategy. Mullarkey also has some wrestling upside, but still has never shown the ability to score well in a decision. So it’s probably best to treat him as a volatile KO or bust option who should go lower owned after his recent embarrassing loss as a -500 favorite. The odds imply Mullarkey has a 70% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Makdessi has only topped 84 DraftKings points twice in 19 UFC appearances and is now approaching the end of his career with multiple surgeries under his belt. While he can put up decent striking totals, he offers nothing in terms of grappling and hasn’t finished anybody since 2015. He’s facing a much taller opponent in Mullarkey here, so it could be tougher for Makdessi to find his range and when he does close the distance Mullarkey could be looking to take him down. That likely leaves him reliant on landing a knockout to score well, although it’s not impossible that he could serve as a value play in a decision win at his cheap price tag. Obviously Mullarkey just got knocked out by a less talented striker, so who’s to say it can’t happen again? That definitely seems like recent bias talking, but anything’s possible. The odds imply Makdessi has a 30% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Jack Jenkins
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off a close/controversial decision win over Jamall Emmers, Jenkins narrowly kept his now nine-fight winning streak intact. In fairness, the fight came down to the first round, where Emmers led just 21-20 in striking, with no takedowns or control time on either side. Jenkins was then able to land a takedown in round two and narrowly lead that round in striking, while Emmers took Jenkins down in round three and controlled him on the mat for four minutes. Prior to that, Jenkins made his UFC debut in front of his home Australian crowd and dominated Don Shainis in a decision win. Just before that, Jenkins landed a third round TKO on DWCS, where he relied largely on his wrestling as he landed four takedowns with over 11 minutes of control time before finding the late finish with 30 seconds remaining in the fight. Jenkins won the Eternal MMA Featherweight belt back in 2020 and successfully defended it twice, in addition to winning the Rogue MMA Featherweight belt. His last title defense came in an ultra high-volume five-round decision just before going on DWCS, where Jenkins couldn’t miss with anything he threw, but never attempted to get the fight to the mat. Five of his last eight wins have come early, but his last seven fights all made it out of the first round.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Jenkins has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decision victories. He has three first round finishes, three in round two, one in round three, and another in round four. His last four and five of his last six finishes came in the later rounds, with his last three early wins all ending in TKOs. Both of his career losses ended in submissions in his first five pro fights.
Overall, Jenkins is a well-rounded Australian fighter with a rugby background who has spent a little time training with Alexander Volkanovski. He throws bone-shattering leg kicks and has broken numerous opponents’ legs with them. He also does a good job of mixing in his wrestling, and between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 9 of his 12 takedown attempts (75% accuracy), while only getting taken down by his opponents on 2 of their 11 attempts (81.8% defense). He showed the ability to put up big striking totals on the Australian regional scene, although has failed to top 82 significant strikes landed in his last three fights, where he averaged 4.34 SSL/min. Now he’ll get to fight in front of his home crowd once again.
Chepe Mariscal
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Mariscal is just over two months removed from a wild brawling decision win in his short notice UFC debut against Trevor Peek, which Mariscal took up a weight class at 155 lb. Mariscal landed 4 of his 12 takedown attempts in that fight, controlled Peek for five and a half minutes, and outlanded him 71-51 in significant strikes and 145-65 in total strikes, while winning every round on the score cards. Mariscal had already fought more UFC fighters than most of the guys currently on the roster. Some of the names he had faced include Sean Soriano, Steve Garcia, Joanderson Brito, Youssef Zalal, Pat Sabatini, Carl Deaton, Bryce Mitchell, and Gregor Gillespie. He went just 2-5 plus a No Contest in those fights and arguably could have lost both of those wins as they came in very close decisions against Sabatini and Zalal, but he at least has a ton of experience fighting UFC level competition. Mariscal won a close, grappling-heavy split decision over Pat Sabatini back in 2018, showing that he could hang on the mat, but also somehow got held on his back for three rounds by an absolutely terrible grappler in Sean Soriano. The only explanation we can come up with is that Mariscal was not the same fighter after getting violently knocked out by Joanderson Brito in 2019, where the referee should have been sent to jail after allowing him to nearly get knocked out after an early low blow and then get his lifeless body pounded into the mat before the fight was finally stopped. The aftermath was a scary scene as Mariscal tried to fight off his corner team for what felt like minutes after he finally woke up and literally had to be carried out of the cage as he continued to struggle. That loss began a stretch where he dropped three out of four fights and likely took years off his life. He’s since gotten back on track against some easier competition, and has now won four straight fights.
Now 14-6 as a pro, Mariscal has six wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and five decision victories. His last three knockout wins all occurred in round two, after two of his first three ended in round one, with the other coming in round four. All three of his submission wins occurred in the first round of fights earlier in his career. He has three KO/TKO losses on his record and three decision defeats. One of those TKOs came in a questionable second round early stoppage against Steve Garcia in 2020, with the other two coming in the first round against Gregor Gillespie in 2016 and Joanderson Brito in 2019. Two of his three decision losses were against Sean Soriano and Bryce Mitchell, so five of his six defeats came against UFC fighters. Mariscal made his 2014 pro debut up at 170 lb, before dropping down to 155 lb for his next fight. He then moved down to 145 lb in 2016, where 15 of his last 17 fights have been. He did have a 155 lb fight in 2022 where he landed a second round TKO, before attempting to drop back down to 145 lb for his second most recent fight. However, he missed weight by 4 lb in that match, blaming the airlines for losing his weight cutting gear. He then took his recent debut up at 155 lb, but will now be cutting back down to 145 lb, so he’ll be a guy to monitor closely at weigh-ins.
Overall, Mariscal is an aggressive, well-rounded fighter with a ton of high-level experience. He’s a judo black belt and trains at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado with a lot of other UFC fighters. He’s generally looking to mix in takedown attempts, and is a threat to finish fights on the mat, but doesn’t have the best top control and often loses positions. We’ve seen Mariscal look really good and really bad at times in the past, so it’s tough to know which version of him you’re going to get. He exceeded expectations in his recent UFC debut, but that was also against a largely unproven brawler in Trevor Peek. Now Mariscal will be flying around the world, dropping down a weight class, and taking on a much more technical fighter in enemy territory.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Mariscal will have a 1” reach advantage.
This is an intriguing matchup between two well-rounded fighters. Mariscal has more momentum going in his favor, but the circumstances surrounding this bout favor Jenkins, as he’ll have the home crowd behind him and won’t have to travel around the world like Mariscal, who will also be attempting to drop down from 155 lb to 145 lb. This will be a completely different challenge than his last one for Mariscal, and we expect Jenkins to attack his skinny calves. Jamall Emmers found some late success in taking Jenkins down and controlling him and we expect Mariscal to come in with a similar game plan. However, Mariscal hasn’t shown the best top control and may have a tougher time controlling Jenkins for extended periods of time, especially with the crowd encouraging the ref to stand the fight back up. Nevertheless, a wrestling-heavy decision appears to be Mariscal’s best path to victory and we’d be surprised to see him finish Jenkins. While this fight most likely goes the distance and ends in a close decision, if it does end early, we like it to come from a late round Jenkins KO/TKO, after he’s had some time to beat up Mariscal’s legs. Jenkins by decision will be the pick, but this could definitely get dicey.
Our favorite bet here is “Jenkins R2 or R3 KO” at +650.
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DFS Implications:
Jenkins only scored 64 DraftKings points in his recent decision win, after totaling 97 points in his previous decision victory. Prior to that, he landed a third round TKO on DWCS that would have been good for 102 DraftKings points, as he racked up four takedowns and over 11 minutes of control time. He’s shown the ability to win fights both on the mat and the feet, but we saw him struggle to escape bottom position on the mat in his recent split-decision win, and now he’s taking on an opponent who shot for 12 takedowns in his last fight. The potential for him to get controlled for periods of time is somewhat concerning for Jenkins’ ability to fill up the stat sheet, which could make it tougher for him to score well in a decision. Therefore, it’s safer to assume Jenkins will need a finish to return value at his higher price tag, which is certainly in play considering Mariscal has been knocked out three times in his career. The odds imply Jenkins has a 64% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Mariscal scored 108 DraftKings points in his recent UFC debut decision win, which is especially impressive when you consider he took that fight on short notice and up a weight class. He was able to fill up the stat sheet in that fight, landing 71 significant strikes, four takedowns, one reversal, five and a half minutes of control time, and 145 total strikes. That’s encouraging for his scoring potential moving forward, and we just saw Jenkins get controlled for a round on the mat in his last fight. Mariscal came into the UFC with a ton of experience and had previously faced numerous opponents who went on to join the UFC, so he’s definitely not your typical fighter coming into his second UFC fight. However, his career has been filled with numerous highs and lows and we’ve seen him struggle with consistency. That’s most evident when you look at the fact that he out grappled his way to a decision win over Pat Sabatini and then just two years later got dominated on the mat by Sean Soriano, one of the worst grapplers in recent UFC memory. Now Mariscal will be traveling around the world and dropping down a weight class, so there are plenty of reasons why we could see him turn in a less impressive performance. However, at his cheap price tag, there are lots of ways for him to end up in winning lineups even with a less impressive win here. Unfortunately the field will be fully aware of that and he projects to be incredibly popular. That lowers his tournament appeal and creates a lot of merit in fading him in tournaments on a smaller slate where it will already be a challenge to create unique lineups. However, he makes a lot of sense as a low-risk play. The odds imply Mariscal has a 36% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Carlos Ulberg
6th UFC Fight (4-1)After getting knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu, Ulberg has bounced back with four straight wins, and the straight first round knockouts in his last three outings. However, the UFC has been feeding him easy matchups for the most part and we haven’t seen Ulberg truly tested against any high-level opponents.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Ulberg has six wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. His only loss came in a R2 KO in his UFC debut when Ulberg gassed out after taking a huge early lead. His last five knockout wins have all come in the first round, after he landed a second round TKO in his pro debut.
Overall, Ulberg has a kickboxing background and is a member of the City Kickboxing team. He made his way into the UFC with a R1 KO win on DWCS in 2020 just 122 seconds into the match. While Ulberg is still a very raw talent in terms of overall mixed martial arts, his striking ability and power are impressive. While he doesn’t add much in the grappling department, he did land two takedowns in his lone UFC decision win, showing at least some growth in that area. Nevertheless, he’s still primarily a one-dimensional kickboxer who earns his keep on the feet. He’s only had to defend two takedown attempts from his opponents so far in the UFC, which he did so successfully, but it’s hard to gauge his defensive wrestling, and we’ve yet to see him operate off his back. Ulberg landed an insane 146 significant strikes in just eight minutes and 19 seconds in his UFC debut (17.56 SSL/min), but after gassing out in that fight he’s paced himself much more in his last three fights. So while he’s capable of putting up huge striking totals, he appears more aware that it’s wiser for him to not empty his gas tank looking for a finish. However, once he has an opponent hurt he’ll unload with a heavy combination of punches until the fight is stopped.
Da Woon Jung
8th UFC Fight (4-2-1)Looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses, Jung recently lost a decision to Devin Clark, after getting knocked out in the first round by Dustin Jacoby. That last fight played out largely in the clinch and on the mat, with Jung landing 1 of his 5 takedown attempts with 5:48 in control time and Clark landing 3 of his 11 takedown attempts with 5:02 in control time. Clark finished ahead just 39-18 in significant strikes. Leading up to his recent two losses, Jung knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu in the first round, after winning a wrestling-heavy decision over William Knight. While three of Jung’s last five fights went the distance, he finished each of his first two UFC opponents, after landing five straight finishes on the regional scene just before that.
Now 15-4-1 as a pro, Jung has 11 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. While his lone KO loss came in his second most recent fight, his one submission defeat came in 2015 in his third pro fight against Roque Martinez when Jung was still fighting at Heavyweight. After going 1-2 at Heavyweight in his first three pro fights, Jung dropped down to Light Heavyweight in 2016 and has since gone 14-2-1.
Overall, Jung is a dangerous striker, who throws heavy elbows, and also showed he can wrestle when he landed eight takedowns against William Knight. However, he only landed one other takedown in his other six UFC fights and overall has landed 9 of his 18 attempts in the UFC (50% accuracy). On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 4 of their 20 attempts (80% defense). It’s rare to see big striking numbers in his fights and he only averages 3.39 SSL/min and 3.53 SSA/min. No one has landed more than 28 significant strikes in any of his last four fights.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4”, but Jung will have a 1” height advantage and is three years younger than the 32-year-old Ulberg.
While the momentum is going in the opposite direction for these two fighters, it’s an interesting matchup between a one-dimensional striker in Ulberg and a more well-rounded fighter in Jung. You have to imagine that Jung’s plan will be to come in and wrestle and we’ve yet to see Ulberg have to operate off his back. However, we expect his ground game to be pretty terrible and Jung has a clear path to victory here on the mat. However, Ulberg is extremely dangerous on the feet, so this is a volatile matchup that will hinge on Jung’s ability to get it to the ground. Ulberg is always live to land an early knockout, but we actually kind of like Jung’s chances of relying on his wrestling to pull off the upset, most likely in a decision, but with a chance of finding a finish on the mat. Jung by decision will be our pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Jung DEC” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
Ulberg has been a model of consistency lately, landing three straight first round knockouts that were good for 105, 106, and 106 DraftKings points respectively. While he’s yet to put up a slate-breaking score and doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling, he has the ability to land punches in bunches and it’s just a matter of time before he really goes off. Each of his last three wins were very efficient performances where he didn’t put up big striking numbers leading up to finishes. However, the Quick Win Bonus, multiple knockdowns, or a higher volume first round knockout are all squarely in play for him. With that said, he’s been very patient with his striking lately, so a poorly timed early second round knockout without much striking behind it is also within the realm of possible outcomes. After facing a complete bum in his last fight, Ulberg will be getting a much tougher matchup here, and we expect Jung will be looking to wrestle and slow this fight down. That may leave Ulberg as a boom or bust option who will need to land a quick knockout before Jung can tie him up and make this fight ugly. At Ulberg’s expensive price tag, we could easily see him land a first round knockout and still get priced out of winning lineups, but he clearly has solid scoring potential. However, he also projects to be very popular, which lowers his tournament appeal some on this smaller slate where it will already be harder to create unique lineups. The odds imply Ulberg has a 72% chance to win, a 53% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Jung has lost two straight fights and the field will naturally be lower on him here as he steps into the buzzsaw that is Carlos Ulberg. However, Jung has shown solid upside both in terms of finishing and his ability to score well in a decision through his wrestling. His last two finishes both came in the first round, where he returned DraftKings scores of 106 and 102, while he also totaled 112 points in a wrestling-heavy decision win. Ulberg is a one-dimensional striker and it would make all the sense in the world for Jung to come in looking to wrestle, especially after he just fought Devin Clark and surely spent the majority of that camp working on his ground game. Ulberg hasn’t had to spend any time on his back yet in the UFC, but we expect him to look pretty helpless if Jung can take him down and we’ve also seen Ulberg gas out later in fights. So if Jung can simply survive the opening round and half he’ll have a really good shot at pulling off the upset, and at his cheap price tag he would then likely end up in winning lineups even without a huge score. The odds imply Jung has a 28% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Anton Turkalj
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Turkalj has yet to win a round in either of his two UFC fights and is coming off a wrestling-heavy decision loss to a debuting Vitor Petrino after getting submitted in the first round by an unstoppable Jailton Almeida in Turkalj’s September 2022 short notice UFC debut. That fight took place at a 220 lb Catchweight, opposed to at 205 lb where Turkalj normally competes, or at Heavyweight where Almeida has been fighting. Turkalj then returned to 205 lb for his last match. In that fight, Turkalj landed 5 of his 15 takedown attempts with nearly five minutes of control time, while Petrino took him down seven times on nine attempts with over six minutes of control time. The striking numbers were close, but Petrino was the one doing more damage. Prior to those two losses, Turkalj won a wrestling-heavy decision on DWCS, where he looked pretty hittable but landed 11 takedowns on 16 attempts with nearly 12 minutes of control time. That was the first time Turkalj had ever been to the judges, after he finished his first seven pro opponents in the first two rounds. He said after his DWCS fight that he thought it was five rounds, which you hope was a joke, but otherwise you have to question his IQ. He also walked right by Dana White after the fight and then asked if Dana was in the building, so he doesn’t appear to be the brightest bulb. Before going on DWCS, Turkalj landed a 13 second R1 KO via spinning backfist, after locking up a R2 rear-naked choke in a fight he was losing just before that.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Turkalj has five wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory. Five of his finishes ended in the first round, with the other two coming in the first half of round two. He’s been submitted once and has one decision loss. Turkalj has spent almost his entire career at 205 lb, but did have one fight down at 185 lb and another at a 220 lb Catchweight.
Overall, Turkalj is a young 27-year-old Swedish fighter who still appears to be finding his identity in mixed martial arts. He looked like a one-dimensional chain wrestler on DWCS, but has been more willing to stand and trade in the past. With that said, he’s very hittable and hasn’t impressed us at all with his striking. While he has no problem spamming takedown attempts, he’s not the most dangerous fighter on the mat, and we’ve also seen him get controlled on his back at times. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Turkalj landed 16 of his 31 takedown attempts (51.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 10 of their 12 attempts (16.7% defense). Turkalj trains out of All Stars in Sweden with Gustafsson and Chimaev, so he does have experienced fighters around him and should be making improvements between every fight.
Tyson Pedro
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Coming off a decision win against Modestas Bukauskas on the last Australia card, Pedro is now 2-3 in his last five fights and his only two wins since 2018 came against two of the worst fighters the UFC has ever seen in Harry Hunsucker and Isaac Villanueva. In fairness to Pedro, he said he was sick in his last fight, so maybe we’ll see a better version of him moving forward. Prior to that loss, Pedro landed back-to-back first round knockouts against a couple of wet paper bags in Hunsucker and Villanueva. Leading up to those finishes, Pedro hadn’t competed since December 2018 when he blew out his knee against Mauricio Rua and was finished in the third round following the injury. Pedro then dealt with multiple knee surgeries as he tried to work his way back from the injury. Looking back before the setback, Pedro started his pro career in 2013 with six straight first round finishes, including a 2016 submission win over Khalil Rountree in Pedro’s UFC debut, followed by a 2017 R1 TKO win over Paul Craig. Pedro then made it past the first round for the first time in his career and lost a 2017 decision to Ilir Latifi. Pedro bounced back in February 2018 with a first round submission win against Saparbek Safarov, but was then submitted himself in the first round by OSP in June 2018 leading up to his loss to Rua. In each of those early losses, Pedro looked close to winning the fights in the first round, but was unable to close things out.
Now 9-4 as a pro, Pedro has four wins by KO/TKO and five submissions, with all nine of his victories ending in the first round. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and lost both of the decisions he’s been to. Ten of his 13 career fights ended in round one (9-1) and he’s 0-3 in fights that have lasted longer than five minutes.
Overall, Pedro holds black belts in both Japanese and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as Kempo. While he’s a decent grappler, Pedro has only landed four takedowns on 11 attempts in the UFC and two of those came in his UFC debut. Since then he’s gone 2 for 9 on his attempts. On the other side of things, his opponents got him down on 9 of their 19 attempts (52.6% defense), and the last three fighters to attempt more than one takedown against him landed multiple of their attempts. Pedro has decent power and throws good leg kicks, but he’s very patient and only averages 2.96 SSL/min and 2.49 SSA/min. He’s still never won a fight that lasted longer than five minutes, but he’s only seen the second round three times in his career and got injured in one of those. He lost the last two times he competed in front of his home Australian crowd, so fighting at home has not benefited him in the past.
Fight Prediction:
Turkalj will have a 1” height advantage, but Pedro will have a 1” reach advantage. Turkalj is four years younger than the 31-year-old Pedro.
Neither of these two have been overly impressive, but Pedro looks like the more well-rounded and proven fighter. Turkalj has been heavily reliant on his wrestling, which could be problematic for him here, as Pedro is a pretty dangerous submission threat on the mat. While Turkalj has also looked very hittable, he’s never been knocked out, and all of Pedro’s KO/TKO wins have come against fragile competition. It’s hard to trust either one of these two and Pedro has never won a fight that lasted longer than five minutes, while also losing each of his last two fights in front of his home Australian crowd. However, based on Turkalj’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting, we like Pedro’s chances of locking up a submission here. Just keep in mind, things could get dicey if this hits the scorecards.
Our favorite bet here is “Pedro SUB” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Turkalj is yet to win a fight, or even a round, in the UFC, but has shown some wrestling-upside. He landed 5 of his 15 takedown attempts in his recent decision loss, and would have scored 89 DraftKings points had the decision gone his way. He also landed 11 of his 16 takedown attempts on DWCS, with nearly 12 minutes of control time. That would have been good for 125 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel. While that’s encouraging for his DFS scoring potential moving forward, especially on DraftKings, he didn’t look especially dangerous on the mat and he amazingly got reversed four times on the ground in his last fight against an opponent who’s known more for his striking. Working in Turkalj’s favor, Pedro has never won a fight that made it out of the first round and also lost the last two times he competed in Australia. The potential for Turkalj to out wrestle his way to a win is certainly there and at his midrange salary he’ll have a good shot at ending up in the optimal DraftKings lineups if he wins. We’re a little less excited about him on FanDuel, where he’ll either need to put up a massive takedown total or find a finish to be useful. The odds imply Turkalj has a 50% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Pedro looked bad in his recent loss to Modestas Bukauskas, but he claimed he was sick going into that fight, so maybe that explains his poor performance if it’s not just an excuse. Prior to that loss, Pedro landed back-to-back knockouts in two of the easiest matchups you could ever ask for, following three and a half years away from competing. That makes it tougher to truly evaluate his current form and adds some volatility to this current matchup. Nevertheless, all nine of Pedro’s career wins came in the first round, so he clearly has upside and he’s averaged 107 DraftKings points in his five UFC victories. However, the fact that he’s 0-3 in fights that have made it out of the first round is concerning for his scoring floor and to this point he’s been a boom or bust fighter who relies on quick finishes. This looks like a pretty decent spot for him to lock up a submission, as Turkalj attempts a high number of takedowns, and if Pedro does find a finish he’ll have a really good shot at ending up in winning lineups at his reasonable price tag. The odds imply Pedro has a 50% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Justin Tafa
8th UFC Fight (3-3, NC)These two originally fought back on June 24th, but the fight was stopped 29 seconds in after Lane poked Tafa in the eye badly. So this will be the second straight time they’ve prepared for one another. Interestingly, that last matchup took place in front of Lane’s home crowd in Jacksonville, while this next matchup will be in front of Tafa’s home Australian crowd.
Prior to that No Contest, Tafa landed back-to-back R1 KO wins over a pair of sloppy Heavyweights in Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker, both in under two minutes. Tafa’s win over Porter notably also took place in Australia. That win came 14 months after Tafa knocked out one of the worst UFC Heavyweights we’ve ever seen in Harry Hunsucker. Prior to the pair of quick finishes, Tafa lost back-to-back decisions against low-level Heavyweights in Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe. Tafa’s only other UFC win was a R1 knockout of Juan Adams who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released after his third straight loss when he was knocked out by Tafa. That came just after Tafa got knocked out in the first round of his 2019 UFC debut by Yorgan De Castro, who was also debuting and then lost his next three fights before being cut. So Tafa has exclusively fought low-level opponents in his six UFC fights and still only won half of those matches. Tafa won his first three pro fights on the Australian regional scene, all in the first two rounds, before surprisingly getting called up to the UFC with just three fights on his record.
Now 6-3 as a pro, all six of Tafa’s career wins have come by KO/TKO, with four ending in round one and two in round two. All three of his UFC knockout wins ended in under two minutes. He’s also been knocked out once himself in the first round and lost both of the decisions he’s been to. The only time he’s ever won a fight that made it longer than five and a half minutes was in his 2017 pro debut when he landed a knockout at the 8:35 mark.
Overall, Tafa is your stereotypical Heavyweight kickboxer who’s mostly just looking to land heavy bombs on the feet. He did mix it up a little in his fight against Felipe as he attempted two takedowns, but he failed to land either and those are his only two takedown attempts in six UFC fights. He’s also only faced two attempts against him, successfully defending both of those. The striking exchanges are generally pretty active in his fights as he averages 5.09 SSL/min and 5.95 SSA/min, although those numbers are also bolstered by the fact that we’ve seen very little control time in any of his matches.
Austen Lane
2nd UFC Fight (0-0, NC)Lane’s recent UFC debut in front of his home Jacksonville crowd definitely didn’t go as planned, as it ended in a No Contest 29 seconds in after he got knuckles deep in Tafa’s eyeball. Prior to that, Lane landed a R1 TKO win on DWCS and had finished six straight opponents. However, he had also been facing some very dubious competition and his wins all failed to impress. He started out his DWCS match by landing one of the most devastating low blows you’ll ever see. Once action resumed, he then proceeded to get taken down and controlled, before he was able to reverse the position and land a ground and pound finish. Prior to that, he technically won by R1 TKO but only because his opponent blew out his knee 99 seconds into the first round. Looking back one fight further, he outlasted a terrible Juan Adams, who took Lane down four times and controlled him for three straight rounds before gassing out and getting finished in the opening minute of round four in a five-round Fury FC “title fight”. Alex Morono was calling the fight and even he didn’t realize the fight was five rounds until mid way through. Lane’s last loss came in a 2020 R1 TKO via ground and pound where he got dominated on the mat, which has been an ongoing problem for him. Lane was also the first fighter to welcome Greg Hardy into MMA, when they both went on DWCS for the first time back in 2018 and Hardy knocked Lane out in just 57 seconds. Lane had originally been scheduled to make his UFC debut against Justin Tafa’s brother, Junior Tafa, back in February. However, Lane tore his bicep and was forced to drop out as he underwent surgery. He said the doctors told him it would be a 5-6 month recovery, but he was cleared after three months. We’ll see if there are any lingering effects from the injury.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Lane has 11 wins by KO/TKO and one by submission. Eight of his knockouts occurred in round one, two ended in round two, and one came in round four. His lone submission win came in a 2021 first round rear-naked choke. All three of his losses ended in first round knockouts.
Overall, Lane is a tall, rangy, low-level Heavyweight whose background is in football as he got drafted by Jacksonville in 2010 and played DL for various NFL teams before retiring from football in 2015. Lane has looked incredibly prone to getting taken down and has been bad on the mat outside of landing an occasional reversal or looking for a kimura. He’s also a pretty wild and aggressive striker who likes to throw kicks and is at least athletic for the division. While he’s really tall at 6’6”, he generally shows up 20-25 lb under the Heavyweight limit, which likely contributes to him being controlled on the mat by heavier opponents. It looks like he’s been trying to add some offensive grappling to his game, as he began shooting for takedowns in his last few fights. Nevertheless, our expectations for Lane are incredibly low and we don’t see him finding any long term success in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Lane will have a 6” height and reach advantage, while Tafa is six years younger than the 35-year-old Lane.
The UFC apparently ran out of low-level Heavyweights on the current roster that Tafa could actually beat so they’ve started bringing in new guys to face him. Neither of these two have impressed us but Tafa is the more proven as he’s at least found some success in the UFC, even if it’s against some of the worst guys in the division. Lane has looked bad both on the feet and the mat, but at least he shouldn’t have to worry about getting taken down much as Tafa has never landed a takedown in the UFC. Tafa looks to have the power advantage and Lane doesn’t seem to have a great chin, so there’s a good chance Tafa lands another early knockout. However, you never know what’s going to happen in low-level Heavyweight fights and either guy could knock out the other or they could both slow down in the later rounds and this could end with the judges, despite the fact Lane has never required them in the past. With that said, Lane’s finish or get finished mentality tends to force the action to the extent that someone goes down. We’ll say Tafa knocks him out in round one, but we don’t trust either of these two, and Lane is an absolute giant, which could give Tafa trouble closing the distance.
Our favorite bet here is “Tafa/Lane Under 0.5 Rounds” at +220.
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DFS Implications:
Tafa has been a R1 KO or bust play throughout his career, with all three of his UFC wins ending in first round knockout. Those three finishes returned DraftKings scores of 103, 104, and 104 points, so he’s been remarkably consistent with his scoring. All three of those knockouts occurred in the second minute of fights and he’s been 59 seconds, 53 seconds, and six seconds away respectively from attaining the Quick Win Bonus. So he’s been creeping closer and closer to finding the finish he needs in the opening 60 seconds to really put up a slate-breaking score, but he’s also been finishing fights too quickly to land much volume leading up to his knockouts. So as first round finishes go, his timing couldn’t be any worse for DFS. That just means we’ve seen his first round knockout scoring floor, but not his ceiling and there’s no reason he can’t eventually improve his timing. The UFC continues to try and build him up by feeding him the easiest matchups they can find and now they’re giving him a second crack at Lane following the quick No Contest in their last fight—only now in front of Tafa’s home crowd instead of Lane’s. While Tafa’s never a guy we can fully trust to win, this sets up as a high-upside matchup for him with a good chance he lands another early knockout. The odds imply Tafa has a 65% chance to win, a 57% chance to land a finish, and a 40% chance it comes in round one.
Lane is tall, long, and fairly athletic for a Heavyweight, but has done literally nothing to impress us. He’s terrible off his back, wild on his feet, and has shown a suspect chin. He’s been fighting a low level of competition and still just barely squeaking by in many of those fights. He only turned pro in 2017 after retiring from the NFL in 2015, so maybe he’s still improving, but he’s already 35 years old so it’s not like he’s some young prospect. It seems like the UFC just needs to rotate in low-level Heavyweights to feed to the rest of the division and Lane was next in line. Tafa isn’t talented enough for us to say Lane can’t land something clean and knock him out, but we’d be somewhat surprised to see it happen. Lane did start mixing in a couple of takedown attempts in his last two fights, but his ground game is still terrible and we’ve yet to see Tafa get taken down in the UFC. At his cheap price tag, if Lane surprisingly wins a high-volume decision he could potentially serve as a value play, but his next fight to go the distance will also be his first. The odds imply Lane has a 35% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Manel Kape
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Kape had been scheduled to fight Kai Kara-France here, but Kara-France pulled out due to a concussion suffered in training and Dos Santos was announced as the replacement on August 21st, 19 days out. Kape’s last three opponents all dropped out of various booked fights in 2023 and he still hasn’t competed this year. Following a December 2022 decision win over David Dvorak, Kape had been booked against Alex Perez and everything looked to be fine until Perez dropped out on fight night after the event had already started. Kape was then set to face Deiveson Figueiredo in July, but Figueiredo ended up not being medically cleared and the fight never materialized. And most recently it was Kai Kara-France that dropped out. Prior to winning a decision over Dvorak, Kape had two more fights canceled, one when Rogerio Bontorin botched his weight cut and another when Kape failed a drug test, meaning five of Kape’s previous six scheduled fights fell through. Leading up to the string of cancellations, Kape landed a pair of first round knockouts against Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Ode Osbourne, after losing a pair of decisions in his first two UFC matches. Prior to joining the UFC, Kape landed three straight second round knockouts in Rizin and won the vacant Bantamweight belt in the last of those.
Now 18-6 as a pro, Kape has 11 wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and two decision victories. He hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and his last five finishes all ended in KO/TKOs. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted twice and has four decision losses, with two of those being split. Nine of his 16 finishes occurred in round one, three ended in round two, three finished in round three, and the other was in round four. Five of his last eight fights ended in the first two rounds. All six of his career losses made it to the third round, with both of his submission defeats occurring late in round three. Kape has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, but more so at 135 lb until he joined the UFC, where he’s exclusively fought at 125 lb—or at least tried to. He notably missed weight by three pounds against Osbourne in 2021.
Overall, Kape started his training in boxing as a child because his father was a boxer. He’s a quick striker who can throw flurries of punches, but he can be overly patient at times and his fight IQ is questionable. He likes to showboat a ton and seems to prioritize that over pushing for finishes at times. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed two of his seven takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), but all of those attempts came in his debut and he hasn’t shot for a takedown in his last four matches. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down on 4 of 13 opponent attempts (69.2% defense). The last two opponents who tried to take him down both landed two of their attempts. While he’s a BJJ black belt, his defensive wrestling still leaves something to be desired. He’s still just 29 years old and looks like a promising prospect, but there are still some things he needs to clean up if wants to truly contend for a title like he says he does. He does train with the Basharat brothers at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, so he should constantly be improving.
Felipe dos Santos
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on short notice, Dos Santos had less than three weeks to prepare for this fight. It’s been 10 months since he last competed, when he won a crazy high-paced decision with the LFA. He looked much better in that match than his previous fight, as his striking looked more explosive and he mixed in a high number of takedown attempts, although didn’t do anything with the ones he landed. Prior to that, he won a split decision on the Brazilian regional scene, where he attempted no takedowns and got controlled for extended periods of time in a fight he easily could have lost.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Dos Santos has two wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision wins. Both of his knockouts came in the first round of his first two pro fights. His next three wins all ended in submissions, and his last two both went the distance.
Overall, Dos Santos is a tall, long, and aggressive striker who trains at Chute Boxe with a room full of killers. He’s still really young at just 22 years old and looks to be making major improvements between every fight. However, his takedown defense remains non-existent and that appears to be his biggest weakness. He’s ultra aggressive and is constantly pushing forward and throwing a barrage of strikes at his opponents, including a high number of spinning attacks that leave his back exposed. He also throws a lot of kicks and has really long legs for the division. Considering how much better he looked in his last fight compared to the one before that, it will be interesting to see how he looks in this next one.
Fight Prediction:
Dos Santos will have a 2” height and reach advantage, while Kape is seven years older than the 22-year-old Dos Santos.
Kape went from taking on the #5 Flyweight in the world to a 22-year-old debuting opponent after Kai Kara-France dropped out. Dos Santos is all gas and no breaks and should force Kape into a high-paced brawl. Dos Santos also has no takedown defense whatevers, so it would be wise of Kape to look to mix in some grappling, although he didn’t even attempt a takedown in his last four fights and definitely isn’t the smartest guy. Kape is a frustrating guy to bet on because he prefers to showboat than go all in for finishes, but he certainly has the ability to finish Dos Santos both on the feet or the mat. This should be an exciting fight and we’re definitely taking Kape to win, but trying to predict how he gets it done is challenging. Based on how aggressive Dos Santos is on the feet and how bad his takedown defense is, it would make sense for Kape to look to wrestle, increasing his chances of locking up a submission. Whether or not he goes that route is a different story. Dos Santos has looked pretty hittable, so a knockout is also very possible. Either way, we lean towards Kape getting the finish, even if he’s untrustworthy.
Our favorite bet here is “Kape SUB or DEC” at +220.
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DFS Implications:
Kape has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, but has relied on landing finishes to score well and only totaled 72 points in his lone decision victory. He also put up scores of just 28 and 31 in his two decision losses, so he’s given us zero indication that he can score well with the judges. However, this looks like a dream spot for him to succeed as he’s facing a 22-year-old short notice replacement who’s making his UFC debut on the other side of the world with less than three weeks to prepare. Dos Santos is hyper aggressive and lacks any sort of defense, which is the perfect recipe for Kape to fill up the stat sheet. While Kape hasn’t even attempted a takedown in any of his last four fights, he’s a BJJ black belt and did shoot seven times in his debut against Pantoja. Dos Santos has a terrible takedown defense so it would make sense for Kape to look to wrestle here. However, Kape’s decision making can’t be trusted and it won’t be at all surprising if he forgoes the path of least resistance. Nevertheless, he has the ability to finish this fight either on the feet or the mat and Dos Santos is the perfect opponent for Kape to hit a ceiling performance against. The odds imply Kape has a 76% chance to win, a 55% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.
Dos Santos is stepping into one of the toughest spots you ask for in a UFC debut as he takes on the #10 ranked Flyweight in the world with less than three weeks to prepare for a PPV fight on the other side of the world. Dos Santos is just 22 years old and it will be interesting to see how he deals with the pressure. He’s an aggressive striker who trains at Chute Boxe with a bunch of other killers, but his striking and takedown defenses both look pretty poor. That should make for high scoring fights that we’ll be looking to target in DFS. It’s hard to see Dos Santos pulling off the upset, but if he somehow does then we would expect him to end up in winning lineups at his cheap price tag. However, we’ll be far more interested in playing him in the future than in this fight. The odds imply Dos Santos has a 24% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Alexander Volkov
15th UFC Fight (10-4)Coming off a pair of first round TKO wins, Volkov recently finished Alexander Romanov in 136 seconds, after putting Jairzinho Rozenstruik away in just 132 seconds. Romanov immediately wilted in that last fight after he was unable to take Volkov down, and Volkov simply forced a stoppage through ground and pound after Romanov’s final failed attempt that left him face down on the mat. Prior to that, Volkov may have benefited from what appeared to be somewhat of an overly quick stoppage against Rozenstruik, as Volkov unloaded with a combination of punches along the fence. Just before that, Volkov got submitted by Tom Aspinall in the first round and it’s been almost two years since Volkov has been in a fight that lasted longer than four minutes. However, prior to those three first round finishes, Volkov had seen the second round in all 11 of his previous UFC matches, with nine of those making it to round three and six going the distance. Volkov’s last nine fights have all either ended in under a round and a half (4-1) or gone the distance (2-2). The last time we saw a finish in the back half of one of his fights was when he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis in 2019 with 11 seconds remaining in the third round.
Now 36-10 as a pro, Volkov has 24 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and nine decision victories. All three of his submission wins occurred early in his career (2016, 2014 & 2010), and all six of his finishes in the UFC ended in knockouts. The first two of those finishes ended in rounds three and four, the next two came in round two, and his most recent two ended in round one. He’s also been knocked out twice himself as a pro, submitted three times, and has five decision losses. However, he’s only been knocked out once since 2013, which was in the final seconds of a 2018 match against Derrick Lewis. Volkov has gone 4-2 in UFC decisions, with the two losses coming against Curtis Blaydes and Ciryl Gane.
Overall, Volkov is essentially a one-dimensional striker who has very little interest in going to the mat, despite being a BJJ brown belt. He hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last seven fights and has completed just seven total in 15 UFC appearances, with five of those coming in his first four UFC fights. After getting taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes in 2020, Volkov bulked up from 247 lb to 265 lb to try to improve his wrestling base, which improved his takedown defense considerably as he stopped all 22 of the takedowns attempted against him in his next four fights, after getting taken down 19 times on 54 attempts in his first seven UFC fights. However, after struggling with his cardio against Marcin Tybura in 2021 he then cut back down to 253 lb for his fight against Aspinall and got taken down twice and submitted in less than a round. He’s since found a middle ground in the high 250’s, where he was able to defend all five of the takedowns against him in his last match, but he’s always a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins as his weight has fluctuated a good amount in recent years. With that said, takedown defense shouldn’t be much of a concern as he takes on a brawler in this next matchup, and we’ll be more focused on how his striking matches up. Volkov averages 4.89 SSL/min and just 3.00 SSA/min, and he’s a massive human being, who stands 6’7”. He has solid durability and will attack his opponents with a combination of kicks and punches that makes him tough to deal with on the feet. Two of his last three losses occurred on the mat and he’s 7-2 in the UFC when he hasn’t been taken down.
Tai Tuivasa
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Looking to bounce back from back-to-back knockout losses, Tuivasa lasted all of 54 seconds against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight, after getting knocked out in the third round by Ciryl Gane just before that. Leading up to those losses, Tuivasa had landed five straight knockouts of his own, all in under seven minutes. Just before losing to Gane, Tuivasa knocked out Derrick Lewis in the second round, after finishing a series of struggling opponents in Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, Greg Hardy, and Augusto Sakai.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Tuivasa has one decision win and 13 knockout victories, with 11 of those finishes ending in round one and two in the first half of round two. He’s also been knocked out three times himself, has one submission loss, and one decision defeat. He’s just 1-4 in his career in fights that have made it past the seven minute mark, losing the last four of those.
Overall, Tuivasa is a one-dimensional striker with no ground game. He throws heavy leg kicks and has no problem taking part in a brawl. He averages 4.10 SSL/min and 4.46 SSA/min and has never landed a takedown in the UFC on just three attempts. Tuivasa is notably the only fighter to ever knock Ciryl Gane down, who after their fight said Tuivasa is the hardest hitter he’s ever faced. And keep in mind, Gane was coming off a loss to Francis Ngannou. On this next card, Tuivasa will be fighting in front of his home Australian crowd for the first time since 2019. Tuivasa’s first two UFC fights were both in Australia, where he landed a pair of first round knockouts against low-level opponents in Cyril Asker and Rashad Coulter. However, the last two times Tuivasa fought in Australia didn’t go nearly as well, as he got knocked out in the second round of a 2018 main event against Junior Dos Santos and submitted in the second round of a 2019 match against Serghei Spivac.
Fight Prediction:
Volkov will have a 5” height and reach advantage, while Tuivasa is four years younger than the 34-year-old Volkov.
You pretty much always know what you’re going to get from Tuivasa. He shows up ready to throw down in a fistfight with a kill or get killed mentality, and we don’t expect that to change here in front of his home crowd, despite the fact that he’s been knocked out in two straight outings. He has some experience facing much taller opposition, most notably when he knocked out an aging 6’11” Stefan Struve. He spent a lot of time working out of the clinch in that fight to negate the reach advantages of Struve, so it will be interesting to see if Tuivasa comes in with a similar game plan here, or if he allows Volkov to control the distance at range. This is obviously a much tougher matchup than the Struve fight and Volkov is a far more durable opponent. However, we did see Derrick Lewis land a hail mary knockout against Volkov, so who’s to say Tuivasa can’t do the same. Volkov is the more technical striker in this matchup and he should also hold the advantage in a longer fight. However, Tuivasa will have the home crowd behind him, and what kind of Australia card would it be if the co-main event didn’t end in a shoey? From a technical perspective it’s hard not to side with Volkov, and Gane laid the blueprint for how to defeat Tuivasa with body kicks, which Volkov could certainly follow. But this also sort of feels like a spot where Tuivasa comes charging in and lands a bomb to finish Volkov in the opening round and a half. Most of the numbers point to Volkov winning, while most of the narratives seemingly side with Tuivasa. We think it’s a little closer to a coinflip than the odds suggest, so from a betting perspective we’re more interested in Tuivasa’s side of things. However, we do agree that Volkov has more ways to win the fight, while Tuivasa is more reliant on an early knockout. Volkov’s kicks up the middle could give Tuivasa problems, but ultimately, this is a dicey fight that will hinge on Tuivasa’s ability to land a clean bomb in the first 7-8 minutes for him to win. There’s a decent chance he finds the mark and pulls off the upset, but from a pure pick’em perspective we’ll still side with Volkov here.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -115.
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DFS Implications:
Volkov has averaged 88 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins, only hitting the century mark in three of those fights, and only topping 102 points once. Four of his six UFC wins went the distance and he only averaged 70 points in those decisions, failing to score more than 80 in any of them. While his last two fights both ended in first round TKO wins, he failed to land a knockdown or a takedown in either of those, which resulted in him only scoring 100 and 98 points respectively. He also failed to accrue a knockdown or a takedown in a 2020 R2 TKO win over Walt Harris, where Volkov only scored 88 points, and amazingly three of his last four finishes have not included a knockdown or a takedown. That’s been a driving factor for his scoring struggles, and he’s not entirely incapable of putting up decent striking volume, as he averages 4.89 SSL/min. He’s also a BJJ brown belt and while unlikely, it’s always possible he’ll look to surprise Tuivasa with a takedown attempt, as Tuivasa offers nothing on the mat and has just a 52% takedown defense. You also have to imagine that the knockdowns will eventually come for Volkov with some of his future knockouts, and Tuivasa has been finished in four of his last 10 fights. Tuivasa’s fights are inherently volatile and generally result in somebody getting knocked out, which leaves Volkov with a shaky floor but a solid ceiling. Tuivasa is also generally popular in DFS, while Volkov is often lower owned, so if those trends continue, then Volkov will be a solid leverage play in tournaments. The odds imply Volkov has a 68% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Tuivasa is your stereotypical KO or bust Heavyweight who relies on knocking opponents out early to win fights and has averaged 104 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins. He only scored 65 points in his lone decision victory, but hasn’t required the judges in any of his last eight fights. All but one of his 14 career wins have ended in a knockout, with 11 of those occurring in round one and the other two early in round two. While those two second round finishes scored “just” 96 and 99 DraftKings points respectively, at his cheap price tag, he doesn't need to put up a huge score to end up in winning lineups. However, he’s given us no indication that he can score well with the judges, so an unlikely decision win would be one way he pulls off the upset and still fails to be useful. We consistently see him around 30% owned on DraftKings in most of his fights, which does lower his tournament appeal some. The odds imply Tuivasa has a 32% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Israel Adesanya
16th UFC Fight (13-2)Coming off the biggest win of his career, Adesanya knocked the boogeyman out cold as he finally defeated Alex Pereira for the first time following two losses in kickboxing to him and one in MMA. In fairness, Adesanya was winning all of those previous fights until he wasn’t, with two knockout losses and one decision that he arguably should have one. Leading up to that recent R2 KO win, Adesanya got finished for the first time in an MMA fight by Pereira in the fifth round of their first UFC fight. Prior to that loss, Adesanya had won three straight five-round decisions after losing a five-round decision in the only other loss of his MMA career. That previous defeat occurred when Adesanya tried to move up a weight class to capture the Light Heavyweight belt against Jan Blachowicz in March 2021. Adesanya originally won the Interim Middleweight belt against Kelvin Gastelum in a 2019 decision, and then became the undisputed champion when he knocked out Robert Whittaker in the second round of his next match. He followed that up with a painfully slow paced decision win over Yoel Romero, before knocking out Paulo Costa in the second round of his subsequent fight. Bored at 185 lb, he then tried to become the double champ when he took on Jan, but came up short in a decision loss. Following the first defeat of his MMA career, he dropped back down to 185 lb and won decisions over Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier, leading up to his loss to Pereira.
Now 24-2 as a pro, Adesanya has 16 wins by KO/TKO and eight decision victories. His only two losses came in a 2022 R5 TKO against Alex Pereira, who then moved up to Light Heavyweight, and a 2021 five-round decision against Jan Blachowicz, in Adesanya’s lone trip up to Light Heavyweight. All 16 of Adesanya’s knockouts occurred in the first two rounds, with seven coming in round one and nine ending in round two. His last three, and four out of his five UFC knockouts came in the second round. Nine of his other 10 UFC fights went the distance, including seven five rounders. His last 11 and 14 of his 15 UFC fights made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a 2018 R1 TKO win over Derek Brunson in the closing seconds of round one. Prior to his recent R2 KO win, Adesanya had seen the fifth round in five straight fights.
This will be Adesanya’s 11th straight title fight and 12th five-round fight since joining the UFC in 2018. Six of those previous 10 title fights went the distance, while three ended in second round knockout wins and one ended in a 5th round TKO loss. He also fought to a five-round decision victory against Brad Tavares in 2018, in his one other UFC five-round fight where no belt was on the line. Prior to joining the UFC, Adesanya had two fights scheduled to go five rounds, but he knocked out both opponents in the first round.
Overall, Adesanya is a calculated counter striker with a celebrated kickboxing career prior to transitioning to MMA. While he’s not a guy that’s generally looking to instigate grappling, he’s great at defending takedowns and returning to his feet when he does get taken down. Considering he’s one of the best strikers on the planet, his opponents are generally looking to get him to the ground, but they have only been able to land 19 takedowns on 86 attempts against him in his 15 UFC fights (77.9% defense). On the other side of things, Adesanya has only attempted seven takedowns in the UFC. Four of those attempts came in his loss to Pereira, while the other three occurred in his first three UFC fights. The only takedown he ever landed came against Pereira. Adesanya only averages 3.94 SSL/min and 2.88 SSA/min, so it’s rare to see huge striking numbers in his matches. After landing 10 knockdowns in his first seven UFC fights, Adesanya has only notched three in his last eight matches.
Sean Strickland
20th UFC Fight (14-5)Strickland is just over two months removed from a second round TKO win over Abusupiyan Magomedov in a July 1st main event. Magomedov gassed out hard in the second round and was just there to be hit. He only had one other UFC fight under his belt, so it never even made sense why he was headlining a card in the first place. That is Strickland’s only finish in his last seven fights, with his second most recent early win coming all the way back in 2020 against Brendan Allen, also in a second round TKO. Strickland’s only other finish since 2016 was a 2018 R2 KO win over Nordine Taleb, who got finished in three of his last four UFC fights before hanging it up in 2019. Prior to finishing Magomedov, Strickland stepped in on short notice to another main event and won a decision over Nassourdine Imavov. That snapped a two-fight skid after Strickland lost a five-round split decision against Jared Cannonier and got knocked out in the first round by Alex Pereira. Leading up to the pair of losses, Strickland had won six straight fights, with the last two of those victories ending in five-round decisions against Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson.
Now 27-5 as a pro, Strickland has 11 wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and 12 decision victories. He has three decision losses, while both of his early losses ended in first round knockouts. The first of those knockout losses came in 2018 against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a 170 lb fight, while the other was in 2022 against Alex Pereira at 185 lb. Those are the only two times in Strickland’s last 18 matches that we’ve seen his fights end in the first round. Twelve of his last 18 fights have gone the distance, while all four of his early wins over that stretch came in rounds two and three. He’s won six of the last seven decisions he’s been to, with the one loss being split. His only other decision loss since 2015 was against Kamaru Usman in 2017. Strickland joined the UFC in 2014 at 185 lb, but after starting out 2-0 he moved down to 170 lb for a three year stretch from 2015 to 2018 where he went 5-3. Following a 2018 R2 TKO win at 170 lb, Strickland was forced into a 2-year layoff following a motorcycle accident and a career-threatening knee injury. Upon his return, he moved back up to 185 lb where he has since gone 7-2, extending his UFC 185 lb record to 9-2.
This will be Strickland’s 6th five-round fight in the UFC. Four of his previous five ended in decisions (3-1), with the one exception being his recent R2 TKO win. His lone five-round loss was a split decision against Jared Cannonier. Strickland also had five fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC, all of which he won, with three first round knockouts and two decisions.
Overall, Strickland generally likes to constantly inch forward while pumping out his jab, as he outpoints his way to victory. He’s shown us at multiple times that he’s far more concerned with securing wins than looking for finishes, but he also demonstrated against Alex Pereira that he would rather lose a striking battle than win a wrestling match. In his nine fights since returning to 185 lb, Strickland has landed seven takedowns on nine attempts (77.8% accuracy), while defending 11 of the 12 attempts against him (91.7% defense). Four of those seven takedowns and six of those nine attempts were against Uriah Hall and he’s only landed/attempted three total takedowns in his other eight most recent fights, failing to land more than one in any of those matches. Strickland is 14-1 in the UFC when he’s led in striking and 0-4 when he’s trailed, and his success stems almost entirely from his ability to outland his opponents.
Fight Prediction:
Adesanya will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
Strickland was the UFC’s second choice here after Dricus Du Plessis turned down the opportunity citing an injury. This new matchup was announced just a month out and only two months after Strickland last competed. With such a short amount of time to prepare, we don’t expect to see many tactical changes from Strickland and both of these guys pretty much are who they are at this stage in their careers. Strickland can grapple, but chooses not to. And even if he wanted to, Adesanya has great defensive grappling, but no real grappling offense, even if he was joking about wanting to submit Strickland. They both rely almost entirely on their striking to win fights, but neither is known for their power. Strickland relies entirely on outlanding his way to victory and typically goes to the scorecards in the majority of his recent fights. Adesanya is a more methodical and tactical fighter who puts as much effort in not getting hit as landing strikes of his own. That slows the pace down in his matches and generally allows him to dictate the action and the larger cage in this matchup should benefit Adesanya. Both guys are very durable, which increases the chances that this goes the distance. However, if Strickland gets under Adesanya’s skin enough, it’s always possible Adesanya decides to bite down on his mouthpiece and stand and trade with him more than normal, which would increase the odds of a finish. While that’s certainly possible, we like Adesanya to win by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Adesanya averaged just 89 DraftKings points in his previous nine wins in five-round UFC fights. Three of those nine wins ended in second round knockouts, where he averaged 101 points, while six went the distance, where he averaged just 82 points. He only topped 86 DraftKings points in one of those six decision wins, which was when he landed an insane four knockdowns against Kelvin Gastelum in 2019 and scored 117 points. Adesanya only averages 3.94 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown in 15 UFC appearances, which leaves him reliant on knockdowns and knockouts to score well. As the most expensive fighter on the card, he’ll likely need to land multiple knockdowns to score well and Strickland is a durable opponent who’s only been knocked down three total times in 19 UFC fights. That doesn’t instill much confidence in Adesanya’s scoring potential, especially when you factor in his sky-high DFS price tag. Unfortunately, the field is fully aware of Adesanya’s scoring struggles and he’s been just 30-36% owned on DraftKings in his last four title fights. Now that he’s higher priced, we could see that number come down even a little more. As main event fades go, there’s far less leverage to be gained here than in your typical five-round fight. That creates some merit in playing him from a game theory perspective and hoping for an outlier performance, but the most likely outcome is that Adesanya wins the fights and fails to score enough to be useful. The odds imply Adesanya has an 83% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Strickland has been in five UFC fights that were scheduled to go five rounds, with four going the distance (3-1) and one ending in a second round TKO win. He averaged 118 DraftKings points in those three decision wins and scored 68 points in a split-decision loss to Jared Cannonier that would have been good for 98 points had the decision gone his way. In Strickland’s recent R2 TKO victory, he scored 113 points, so overall he’s been scoring well in main events. As the cheapest fighter on the card, if Strickland wins, it’s safe to assume he’ll end up in winning lineups. However, he’s facing the toughest test of his career and he comes in as a massive underdog, so it’s hard to see him winning this fight. However, at his dirt cheap salary it’s not impossible that he could lose a decision and still sneak into winning lineups if we get another slate where only 1-2 underdogs win. With that said, Adesanya only averages 2.88 SSA/min and no Middleweight has ever landed more than 91 significant strikes against him. So Strickland would need a lot of things to go right to be useful in a loss, and we’re still not excited about playing him. The odds imply Strickland has a 17% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
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