Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.
Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Carlos Ulberg
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Fresh off his first early win in the UFC, Ulberg landed a first round knockout against Tafon Nchukwi, who was coming off his first early loss in another knockout. Prior to that, Ulberg patiently won a decision over Fabio Cherant after punching himself out in his March 2021 UFC debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu and getting finished in the second round. He landed an insane 146 significant strikes in just over eight minutes of action in his UFC debut, but didn’t have a plan b if he couldn’t end the fight early. Then in response to that cardio collapse, he methodically landed just 66 significant strikes in his subsequent decision win.
In his last fight, Ulberg landed a stiff left jab a minute into the fight that staggered Tafon Nchukwi backwards. Ulberg followed up with a combination of punches that dropped Nchukwi and the fight was stopped before it ever even really got going just 75 seconds in. Ulberg finished ahead 15-3 in striking in a quick day at the office.
Still just 6-1 as a pro, Ulberg has four wins by KO and two decisions. His only loss came in a R2 KO in his UFC debut when Ulberg gassed out after taking a huge early lead. His last three KO wins have all come in the first round, after he landed a second round TKO in his pro debut.
Overall, Ulberg has a kickboxing background and is a member of the City Kickboxing team. He made his way into the UFC with a R1 KO win on DWCS in 2020 just 122 seconds into the match. While Ulberg is still a very raw talent in terms of overall mixed martial arts, his striking ability and power are impressive. While he doesn’t add much in the grappling department, he did land two takedowns in his second most recent fight, showing at least some growth in that area. Nevertheless, he’s still primarily a one-dimensional kickboxer who earns his keep on the feet. He’s only had to defend one takedown so far in the UFC, so it’s hard to gauge his defensive wrestling, and we’ve yet to see him operate off his back.
Nicolae Negumereanu
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming in on a four fight winning streak, Negumereanu has alternated split decision wins and TKO victories over that four fight stretch, after losing a decision in his 2019 UFC debut. In fairness to Negumereanu in that loss, his opponent, Saparbek Safarov, blatantly grabbed the fence every chance he got in the fight and probably should have been disqualified after ignoring a dozen warnings and then compounding the violations with an incredibly late and heavy elbow to the face of Negumereanu after the ref called time to address the fence grabs. Following the bizarre loss, Negumereanu didn’t fight again for 27 months after undergoing back surgery leading up to his recent string of wins.
In his last fight, Negumereanu looked to tie Ihor Potieria up early against the fence and patiently worked his way to a takedown. Negumereanu did a great job of negating the explosiveness of Potieria as he made the fight ugly and worked out of the clinch and on the mat. As Potieria slowed down in round two, Negumereanu was really able to turn it on and find a finish midway through the round as he landed a series of punches and knees along the fence. The fight ended with Negumereanu ahead 51-38 in significant strikes and 72-52 in total strikes, while tacking on two takedowns on three attempts with four minutes of control time.
Now 13-1 as a pro, Negumereanu has eight wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been finished in his career, with his only loss coming in a decision in his 2019 UFC debut. All 11 of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with six in round one and five in round two. It should be pointed out that Negumereanu fought a lot of highly suspect competition prior to joining the UFC.
Overall, Negumereanu relies on his durability, wrestling, and clinch work to win fights. He marches forward and lacks any sort of elusiveness, which eventually has to catch up with him, however, his chin has held up so far. He averages just 3.79 SSL/min, but a whopping 5.69 SSA/min (most on the slate). He has struggled with his takedown accuracy, landing just 4 of his 14 attempts (28.6% accuracy), but he was able to land two of his three attempts in his last fight.
Fight Prediction:
Ulberg will have a 4” height advantage, but Negumereanu will have a 1” reach advantage and is three years younger than the 31-year-old Ulberg.
Ulberg is a talented kickboxer with powerful, technical striking, but is still green in terms of MMA and may fight a little too pretty for the ugly style that Negumereanu brings to the table. This is the second Homer Simpson that U;berg has faced so far in the UFC, and it didn’t end well for him the last time. Ulberg is accustomed to finishing opponents early or picking them apart from space, but when he’s put in a dog fight he tends to gas out and eventually wilt under pressure. Negumereanu will be looking to grind him up against the cage, beat him up out of the clinch, and take him to the mat. That is not the style of fight that Ulberg excels in. So while Ulberg is the more technical and powerful striker, we like Negumereanu to wear on his gas tank, take him to deep waters, and drown him with pressure as the fight goes on. Give us Negumereanu by round two TKO here.
Our favorite bet here is “Negumereanu R2 or R3 KO ” at +700.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Ulberg has shown massive scoring potential, as he totaled 106 DraftKings points in a recent R1 KO and landed 146 significant strikes in just over a round and a half in his UFC debut before gassing out and getting finished. He then fought very tentatively in his next match as he was clearly trying to preserve his cardio after gassing out. He’s a one-dimensional kickboxer but did mix in a couple of takedowns in his second UFC fight, at least showing some potential to boost his scoring with an occasional takedown. While he’s a great striker, his cardio is still a big red flag and it will surely be tested in this fight if we don’t see an early finish. And with that in mind, Negumereanu has never been finished in his career and has looked extremely durable as he marches forward and makes fights ugly. While that should give Ulberg some opportunities to land a knockout as Negumereanu closes the distance, Ulberg may quickly find himself pressed against the cage as his cardio is being drained. That will make it tougher for him to remain competitive the longer this fight goes and he likely needs a knockout in the first half of this fight if he wants to win. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 31% chance it comes in round one.
Negumereanu is coming off a career performance where he totaled 112 DraftKings points in a second round TKO victory. We normally don’t like chasing performances like that, but this looks like a great matchup for Negumereanu to execute the same exact gameplan he did in his last fight, where he grinds an explosive opponent up against the cage, takes him down, and makes the fight ugly until he can find a finish. Ulberg is a pure kickboxer and Negumereanu should have a major grappling advantage, in addition to having better cardio. If he can wear Ulberg down and force him to grapple, he could be looking at a teed up finish in the second round with massive scoring potential. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #13
Montel Jackson
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Fourteen months removed from a decision win over J.P. Buys, Jackson has gone the distance in four of his last five fights and in five of his seven UFC matches. After losing a decision in his 2018 UFC debut to wrestling stud Ricky Simon, Jackson has won five of his last six fights, with his only other loss coming against another really tough grappler in Brett Johns.
In Jackson’s last fight, Buys was able to land a takedown early in round one and take the back of Jackson, but he wasn’t able to find his way to a finish and Jackson pretty much controlled the remainder of the fight. Buys did look close to locking up a guillotine later in round one, but Jackson escaped without too much trouble. Jackson amazingly landed four knockdowns in addition to four takedowns with over 10 minutes of control time. He also finished ahead in significant strikes 25-8 and in total strikes 91-39.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Jackson has six wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses ending in decisions. Jackson fought his first pro fight at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb for his second pro match. However, he then moved all the way down to 135 lb for his third pro bout, where he’s stayed ever since. At 5’10” with a 75” reach and massive hands, he’s definitely big for the division. He offers exceptional wrist control, pinning opponents’ arms back like someone picking on their little brother.
Overall, Jackson has a background in wrestling and was originally striving to compete in the Olympics before changing his focus to MMA. His patient fighting style, long reach and strong wrestling skills have kept the striking volume in check for all of his UFC fights. None of his UFC opponents have landed more than 30 significant strikes on him. Even in his two career losses, Jackson outlanded his opponents, but ended up getting outwrestled in those matches. Jackson has an impressive 78.1% takedown accuracy as he’s landed 25 takedowns on 32 attempts between his seven UFC fights and DWCS appearance.
Julio Arce
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Coming off a decision win over a debuting Daniel Santos, Arce has traded wins and losses for seven straight fights. Prior to his recent decision victory, he got knocked out in the second round by Song Yadong, after landing a second round knockout of his own against Andre Ewell.
In his last fight, Arce was able to circle the outside of the Octagon and evade most of the shots of Santos, who threw a ton of strikes (229), but only connected on 49 of them (21%). Arce was able to use his footwork to effectively control the distance throughout the match as Santos never stopped pushing forward. Arce more than doubled Santos’ number of significant strikes in every round of the fight and finished ahead 127-49 in striking. Neither fighter landed a takedown, Arce on one attempt and Santos on two. Arce easily cruised to a unanimous decision win.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Arce has five wins by KO, five by submission, and eight decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has three decision losses. His last 17 fights have all made it to the second round, with 12 of those seeing round three, and eight going the distance. After fighting at 145 lb for his first five UFC fights (3-2), Arce dropped back down to 135 lb for his last three matches (2-1), where he started his pro career off 8-2 before moving up to 145 lb in 2016. Both of those earlier career losses notably came against UFC fighter Brian Kelleher, before either guy joined the UFC, and Arce made the decision to move up to 145 lb immediately following the pair of consecutive losses in 2015-2016. He won his first seven fights at 145 lb, including his first two fights with the UFC, but lost two of his last three 145 lb fights in split-decisions and decided to move back down to 135 lb in 2021.
Overall, Arce is a former boxer and won the NY Golden Gloves Championship in 2011 before switching over to MMA. He’s also a second degree black belt and has as many career wins by submission as knockout, but has only landed once submission since joining the UFC, which came in the third round of his second UFC fight back in 2018. He owns a solid 94.4% takedown defense, and the only time he’s ever been taken down came in his UFC debut against Dan Ige, who was only able to get him down once on 13 attempts. However, only two opponents have even tried to get him down since then—Daniel Teymur, who went 0 for 2 and owns an 18% career takedown accuracy and Daniel Santos who went 0 for 2 and owns a 33% career takedown accuracy.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. He’s also three years younger than the 33-year-old Arce.
The only two fighters to ever defeat Jackson have been high-level wrestlers, and while Arce is a BJJ black belt, his background is in boxing and he’s only landed three takedowns in eight UFC appearances. With that said, Arce does have a 94% takedown defense, so it will be interesting to see how much success Jackson can have getting the fight to the mat. Arce’s takedown defense hasn’t been tested much lately, as he’s only had two takedowns attempted on him in his last six fights and those came from a striker. Arce has never faced a wrestler like Jackson and look for his takedown defense tested here. We expect Jackson to be able to get this fight to the mat as he’s been incredibly effective with his takedown attempts and is a physical freak once he gets his hands on you. He’s also much bigger than Arce and we expect Jackson to control this fight, despite Arce having the home New York crowd behind him. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Jackson find a finish either on the feet or the mat, but we’ll say he grinds out a grappling-heavy decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -142.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Jackson has averaged an absurd 120 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, scoring 109 or more in his last four victories, including slate-breaking scores of 131 and 148 in two of his last three. He’s shown the ability to put up huge scores regardless of whether he finds a finish as he dominates opponents on the ground. His only two career losses have come against other high-level wrestlers, and he’ll be facing a striker in this next matchup. With that said, Arce is a BJJ black belt with a 94% takedown defense, but hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and has only had to defend two takedowns in his last six fights. While Arce does seem poised to mount some grappling defense, we still expect Jackson to find success getting this fight to the mat and he’s been incredibly efficient with his takedowns, landing 78% of his attempts. Jackson’s massive scoring ability does typically result in him being very popular and he was 60% owned on another 14-fight card the last time he fought. We don’t expect him to be as popular here, but he’ll definitely be highly owned. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Arce has never been much of a DFS contributor, despite the fact that he’s landed finishes in three of his last four wins. He only scored 88, 90, and 76 DraftKings points in those three early victories, as they all occurred in the later rounds. He nearly doubled his previous career high in significant strikes landed in his last fight (127 vs. 74), but still scored just 81 DraftKings points in the decision victory. He’s only landed three takedowns in eight UFC appearances, never landing more than one in a fight. Now he’ll be facing a powerful wrestler, so don’t count on Arce landing many takedowns here. Arce will need to hand Jackson the first early loss of his career to score well, and even then Arce is unlikely to put up a big score. While he will have the home New York crowd behind him, we don’t have much interest in playing Arce and he’ll likely need to not only win but also have the vast majority of other dogs on the slate lose to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
SeungWoo Choi
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Entering this fight on a two fight skid, Choi lost a split-decision to a much improved Josh Culibao in his last match and nearly got knocked out early in the fight. Just before that, Choi nearly landed a knockout of his own but instead ended up getting submitted in the second round by Alex Caceres. Prior to the pair of losses, Choi had won three straight after losing the first two fights of his UFC career.
In his last fight, Choi looked far less composed on his feet, as he got knocked down once in each of the first two rounds and nearly got finished by an opponent in Josh Culibao who has never finished anybody in four UFC fights. In fairness, Culibao did look much improved against Choi, but it’s still concerning for Choi’s potential moving forward. Despite finishing behind in striking in the first two rounds and getting knocked down in both rounds, one judge somehow scored the first round for Choi, which eventually resulted in a split decision. There was no doubt that Culibao won each of the first two rounds, so take the split decision with a grain of salt. Choi did show a lot of heart to fight back from adversity in the match and finished strong in the fight, landing a rare takedown in the third round and controlling Culibao’s back for a period of time. Culibao finished ahead in significant strikes 51-46 and in total strikes 69-64, while Choi landed one of his two takedown attempts with half a round of control time.
Now 10-5 as a pro, Choi has six wins by KO and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. He’s been submitted in two of his last three losses. The only time he’s been knocked out came in the first round of a 2017 fight, two years before he joined the UFC. While he’s only landed one knockout in seven UFC fights, prior to joining the UFC, five of his seven wins were by KO, including three in the first round.
Overall, Choi is a solid but one-dimensional striker and has struggled in grappling exchanges. He was taken down 10 times on 29 attempts in his first two UFC fights, but has only been taken down 3 times on 10 attempts in his last five matches. He’s a patient striker, who only averages 3.32 SSL/min and 3.00 SSA/min. He excels when he can keep fights standing and control the distance, and now he’s facing another striking in Trizano, who’s only landed two takedowns in six UFC appearances.
Michael Trizano
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Also looking to bounce back from a pair of losses, Trizano was just knocked out for the first time in his career, which came against a debuting Lucas Almeida. Prior to that, Trizano got torched in a decision loss to Hakeem Dawodu. While Trizano was able to win a close/questionable decision over Ludovit Klein prior to the pair of losses, he got submitted by Grant Dawson looking back one fight further and he’s now lost three of his last four fights after winning a pair of split decisions in his first two UFC appearances. Trizano hasn't finished anybody since 2017, when he landed a second round submission just before going on The Ultimate Fighter.
In his last fight, Trizano landed a knockdown in the first round after starting behind in striking numbers, but was unable to put Almeida away and was made to pay for it later in the match as Almeida landed knockdowns of his own in both rounds two and three. After looking badly hurt late in round two, Almeida recovered well between rounds and continued to lead the dance in striking output. An accidental clash of heads split Trizano open badly late in the second round and then Almeida dropped Trizano in the opening minute of round three and finished him with ground and pound. The fight ended with Almeida ahead 75-31 in significant strikes, 94-42 in total strikes, and 2-1 in knockdowns.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Trizano has two wins by KO, two by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. His last nine fights have all made it out of the first round, with six seeing round three, and five of those going the distance. Trizano has gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb throughout his career, but his last four fights have all been down at 145 lb and after winning his first two UFC fights at 155 lb, he’s gone just 1-3 at 145 lb with the organization.
Overall, Trizano isn’t a very impressive fighter and doesn’t really excel at anything. His background is in kickboxing and he trains out of Tiger Schulmann in New York, but he hasn’t been a very impressive striker. He only averages 3.45 SSL/min, and has only topped 56 significant strikes landed in one of his six UFC fights, which is when he was outlanded 141-70 in his fight against Dawodu. He’s only landed two takedowns on three attempts in the UFC, and has only attempted one in his last four fights.
UPDATE: Trizano missed weight by 1.6 lb and looked terrible at weigh-ins!
Fight Prediction:
Choi will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these two are looking to snap two fight losing streaks, so it will be interesting to see how tentative they are coming in. Trizano will be fighting in front of his home crowd, which could boost his confidence, but if he gets reckless we could see him get clipped again as Choi is a solid striker. Neither of these two land much volume, so they’ll need to make the strikes they do land count. They also both showed holes in their striking defenses in their recent losses, as they were each knocked down twice in their most recent fights. We expect this to play out as a pure striking battle, and while there’s a good chance it ends in a lower volume decision, we’ll say Choi knocks Trizano out.
Our favorite bet here is “Choi KO” at +270.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Choi is a solid striker, but his one-dimensional fighting style and lack of volume generally leaves him reliant on landing an early knockout to score well. He did have one high scoring decision win earlier in his career where he totaled 103 DraftKings points, but it was pretty flukey as it was propped up by a ton of control time and clinch strikes with a knockdown. His other decision victory scored just 69 DraftKings points and is more representative of what we can expect from him when he doesn’t land a finish. Even a later round knockout may not be enough for him to return value at his high price tag, unless it includes multiple knockdowns. We’re expecting a lower-volume tactical striking battle and Choi likely needs a first round knockout to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Trizano has never been one to score well in DFS, with DraftKings totals of just 59, 65, and 66 in his three UFC wins, which all ended in decisions. To his credit, he nearly landed a first round knockout in his last fight, but instead of making his opponent stand up after he hurt him he went to the ground with him and gave him time to recover. Trizano definitely isn’t the brightest bulb, so we shouldn’t be surprised when he makes poor decisions. His low striking output and lack of grappling leave him reliant on landing a finish to score well, and the last time he got anyone out of there early was in 2017 before he joined the UFC. That makes it hard to have much confidence in him and he also missed weight and looked really rough at weigh-ins. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
14th UFC Fight (6-7)Finally notching a win in her last fight after losing five straight before that, Kowalkiewicz submitted a struggling Felice Herrig, who had lost three straight coming in and promptly retired as soon as the fight ended. That was actually the second time those two fought, and coincidentally Kowalkiewicz’s last two wins both came against Herrig, with those two wins bookending her five fight losing streak. The first win over Herrig was all the way back in 2018 and ended in a split decision. The only other opponent Kowalkiewicz has defeated in her last 10 outings is Jodie Esquibel, who went 0-4 in the UFC and lost a decision to Kowalkiewicz in 2017. Kowalkiewicz’s second most recent finish was a first round armbar all the way back in 2014. Eleven of Kowalkiewicz’s last 15 fights have gone the distance, while she has the one recent submission win and has been finished in the first round three times over that stretch, with two submissions and one knockout.
In her last fight, Kowalkiewicz threw down in a high-volume brawl against Felice Herrig. Kowalkiewicz also looked to grapple some in the fight, and while she failed to land either of her official takedown attempts, she capitalized on a failed Herrig takedown attempt to end up in top position on the mat midway through the second round. Herrig almost immediately gave up her back and Kowalkiewicz quickly looked to lock in a rear-naked choke. While Herrig was able to escape the initial attempt, Kowalkiewicz went right back to it and forced a tap with a minute remaining in the round. The fight ended with Kowalkiewicz ahead 82-55 in significant strikes and 102-59 in total strikes. Both fighters went 0 for 2 on their takedown attempts, but Kowalkiewicz finished with over three minutes of control time and two submission attempts.
Now 13-7 as a pro, Kowalkiewicz has one win by TKO (2012 pro debut), three by submission, and nine decisions. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has four decision losses. Her lone career KO loss came against Jessica Andrade in the first round of a 2018 fight. Three of her four career finishes came in her first five pro fights from 2012 to 2014, with two of those occurring while she was fighting up at 125 lb, before she dropped down to 115 lb in 2014. Since moving down to Strawweight, Kowalkiewicz has gone 9-7, but just 3-7 in her last 10 fights.
Overall, Kowalkiewicz is a Muay Thai striker who can put up big striking totals as she averages 5.38 SSL/min (8th highest on the slate) and absorbs 5.59 SS/min (2nd highest on the slate). In 13 UFC fights, she’s only landed two takedowns on 11 attempts (18.2% accuracy). She will look for submissions on the mat, but has only completed one since 2014. Kowalkiewicz’s fight IQ is dubious at best, which was in full display when she dove head first into the guard of a one-dimensional grappler in Jessica Penne in Kowalkiewicz’s second most recent fight, which ended with Kowalkiewicz getting submitted.
Silvana Gomez Juarez
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off her first UFC win, Gomez Juarez has yet to see the second round in three UFC appearances. Her first two fights with the organization each ended in first round armbar submission losses. However, while the fights resulted in the same outcome, they couldn’t have gone much differently for as long as they lasted. Juarez’s lack of grappling was on full display in her UFC debut, as Loopy Godinez put on a dominant wrestling performance, landing five takedowns on six attempts with three and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over four minutes. Juarez put up little to no resistance to getting taken down and looked helpless on the mat, exposing a clear weakness for opponents to exploit moving forward. The UFC ruthlessly matched her up with another grappler for her second fight as she squared off against Vanessa Demopoulos. Gomez Juarez started off much better, dropping Demopoulos with a big looping right hand 70 seconds into the first round. It looked like she was moments away from notching a first round knockout. However, as Gomez Juarez went in to finish the job with ground and pound, Demopoulos was able to throw up her guard and work her way to an armbar that Gomez Juarez looked helpless at defending. The savages that they are, the UFC then again matched Gomez Juarez with another grappler in her last fight, as she went up against Liang Na, but this time was finally able to land a knockout.
In Gomez Juarez’s last fight, Liang shot for her first takedown attempt just over 30 seconds into the first round, but Gomez Juarez was able to defend it and circle off the cage. Liang came lunging in for another telegraphed takedowns 75 seconds into the fight and Gomez Juarez was easily able to push her away and return to space. Gomez Juarez then landed a massive right hand that dropped Liang to a knee, before following it up with a combination of punches that folded Liang over like a cheap lawn chair to end the fight in just 82 seconds. The fight ended with Gomez Juarez ahead 8-4 in significant strikes and 10-4 in total strikes, while Liange failed on both of her takedown attempts.
Now 11-4 as a pro, Gomez Juarez has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. Her four career losses have all come against UFC fighters, with one ending in a R4 TKO, two in R1 armbars, and one in a five-round decision. Prior to joining the UFC, she lost a 2018 five-round decision to Ariane Lipski and suffered a 2015 post R4 TKO loss to Poliana Botelho. She also has a decision win over former UFC fighter Vanessa Melo. Both of Gomez Juarez’s submission wins came by third round armbar in back-to-back 2014 fights. Impressively, six of her seven KO wins have occurred in the first round, with the other coming in the second round of her last fight before joining the UFC. Juarez has fought as high as 135 lb in the past, but has spent most of her career at 125 lb. All of her UFC fights have been down at 115 lb, but prior to joining the organization she had only competed at 115 lb once, which ended in a 2019 decision win.
While Gomez Juarez has two submission wins on her record, she’s really a pure kickboxer and doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of grappling. She has ridiculous power for the 115 lb division and has knocked down her last two opponents early in the first round of fights. However, she’s a complete liability when fights hit the mat. Despite this being just her fourth UFC fight, she’s already 37 years old and got a late start in the UFC. Her last five matches have all ended in the first two rounds, with four ending in round one, and Gomez Juarez generally relies on early knockouts to win fights, with her last decision coming in 2019. After starting 1-2 in the UFC, she could be fighting for her job here, although if the UFC was ever going to give someone a longer leash, it would be a fighter like her.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’3” and 37 years old, but Gomez Juarez will have a 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as an absolute banger, as long as Gomez Juarez can keep the fight standing. Kowalkiewicz is by no means a great grappler and has only landed two takedowns in her 13 UFC fights. However, she is an opportunistic submission threat when fights do hit the mat, and Gomez Juarez has shown absolutely no ability to defend submissions. So if Gomez Juarez does land a knockdown, she would be wise to simply make Kowalkiewicz stand back up, opposed to engaging on the mat with her. Gomez Juarez will also need to be careful to stay off the fence and out of clinch situations. If she can do all that, she’s the much more powerful striker in this matchup and we’ve seen Kowalkiewicz get knocked out cold in the first round once before. We like Gomez Juarez’s chances of landing a knockout in the first two rounds here, but the possibilities of her either tripping into a submission on the mat or fighting slightly more tentatively as she tries to secure a second contract are also in play. So it’s far from a layup, but we’re taking Gomez Juarez by R1 KO.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Kowalkiewicz SUB or Gomez Juarez KO” at +150 (DraftKings).
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Kowalkiewicz is coming off her first win in her last six fights and her first finish in 13 UFC appearances. She scored a career best 113 DraftKings points in the recent second round submission victory, after failing to top 90 points in any of her first 12 UFC fights. While she’s shown the ability to put up big striking totals, landing 119 or more significant strikes in three of her five UFC decision wins, she’s only landed two takedowns on 11 attempts in the UFC and has just an 18% takedown accuracy. So while Gomez Juarez has looked like an absolute liability on the mat, and Kowalkiewicz is coming off a submission win, just keep in mind Kowalkiewicz struggles mightily to get fights to the ground and her second most recent submission victory was all the way back in 2014 in her fifth pro fight. She also has a low fight IQ and should not be trusted to make rational decisions. As long as this remains standing, we’re expecting a high-volume brawl with Kowalkiewicz throwing more volume, but Gomez Juarez landing the more impactful shots. Neither fighter can fully be trusted, making this somewhat of a high variance fight, but whoever wins should score pretty well and they’re both affordably priced. Kowalkiewicz’s fighting style will generally score better on FanDuel than DraftKings, but she’s a fine play on both sites. Just be aware, there’s a good chance she gets knocked out early, so she doesn’t have a reliable floor. The odds imply she has a 52% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Gomez Juarez is coming off her first UFC win in an 82 second R1 KO where she scored 104 DraftKings points. She nearly landed another first round knockout just before that, but ended up getting caught in an armbar as she went for the finish on the mat after landing an early knockdown. That is one concern with her, as she is completely helpless when it comes to grappling, leaving her more reliant on landing clean knockouts. Nevertheless, she throws bombs and is always live to land a quick finish, with 9 of her 11 career wins coming early, including six first round knockouts. She’s been submitted every time she’s touched the mat so far in the UFC, which leaves her with an unreliable floor, but she always makes for a solid tournament play due to her one punch knockout power. Kowalkiewicz has the worst grappling of any opponent Gomez Juarez has faced so far in the UFC, having only landed two takedowns in 13 UFC appearances, but she will look for opportunistic submissions. So while we’re less concerned about Gomez Juarez getting taken down and submitted in this matchup than in her previous three, the threat is still there to some extent. That leaves Gomez Juarez as a boom or bust DFS option with slate-breaking scoring potential. The odds imply she has a 48% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Matt Frevola
8th UFC Fight (3-3-1)These two had originally been scheduled to fight back in January 2021, but Azaitar violated COVID protocols and was pulled from the card, cut from the UFC, and then brought back. The UFC decided to put the fight back together nearly two years later.
Frevola is coming off a wild brawling three minutes of action in his last fight, where he amazingly landed four knockdowns on his way to a first round knockout victory against a debuting Genaro Valdez. Just prior to that, Frevola got knocked out in just seven seconds by a debuting Terrance McKinney, after losing a decision to Arman Tsarukyan. Frevola also got knocked out 60 seconds into his 2018 UFC debut, before fighting to three straight decisions (2-0-1), including a win over Jalin Turner that aged quite well.
In his last fight, both guys came out swinging in one of the crazier first rounds you’ll see. Frevola nearly had a finish inside of the opening minute, but Valdez was narrowly able to survive and return to his feet after getting dropped, only to get dropped again. Frevola continued to unload on him, and while Valdez was able to land some shots of his own, Frevola was underrated and continued to throw everything he had at Valdez, dropping him one time after the next. Frevola finally jumped on top of him on the mat and landed ground and pound until the fight was stopped. Frevola finished ahead in significant strikes 60-10 and in total strikes 71-10, while landing an insane four knockdowns in just over three minutes.
Now 9-3-1 as a pro, Frevola has two wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. Four of his five early wins have come in round one, with the other ending in round two. Both of his early losses ended in 60 seconds or less.
Overall, Frevola wrestled when he was younger and is a BJJ brown belt. In his seven UFC fights, he’s landed 12 takedowns on 32 attempts (37.5% accuracy), although hasn’t landed any takedowns on just two attempts in his last three fights. Nevertheless, he does a good job of mixing in wrestling when he needs to and can also throw down on the feet, as was evident in his last fight. While he only averages 3.43 SSL/min in his career, he recently showed that he’s fully capable of throwing down in a brawl. It will be interesting to see what his approach will be in this next matchup against a dangerous power puncher.
Ottman Azaitar
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Azaitar hasn't fought in 26 months after getting pulled from the card for mischievous acts the last time he was scheduled to fight. We haven’t seen him inside of the Octagon since he knocked out Khama Worthy in the first round of a September 2020 match. Worthy went on to get knocked out in the first round of his next two fights as well, before being released from the UFC. Prior to that Azaitar landed another first round knockout in his 2019 UFC debut, in one of the more violent knockouts you’ll ever see as he left his opponent twitching on the mat with a single right hand. Just keep in mind, that opponent finished 1-3 in the UFC with two R1 KO losses and who never fought again following the loss to Azaitar.
In his last fight, Azaitar only took 93 seconds to put Worthy away, although we did see an initial feeling out process before Azaitar landed a combination of punches and shoved Worthy to the mat as he finished him with ground and pound. Azaitar finished ahead in striking 16-1 in the near flawless performance.
Now 13-0 as a pro, Azaitar has 10 wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision victory. His last three and 10 of his 12 wins have come in round one. Both of his submissions came back in 2015, and he really appears to be mostly a power puncher. His last five wins have all been by KO.
Overall, Azaitar is a dangerous power puncher who rarely requires more than five minutes to finish opponents and four of his 12 finishes have come in under a minute. However, he hasn’t been at all active lately with no fights in the last two years. When you also consider that he only fought once a year in 2018, 2019, and 2020, he has just five minutes and 38 seconds of cage time since 2017. It’s hard to stay sharp and improve your game with that little amount of actual fight experience. He’s also only had to defend one half-hearted takedown in the UFC, so we have no idea what his grappling looks like.
Fight Prediction:
Frevola will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 71” reach and are 32 years old.
This sets up for an exciting fight that you won’t want to miss. Azaitar is a walking highlight reel and Frevola is coming off one of the wilder first rounds you’ll ever see. It would make sense for Frevola to mix in more wrestling here as Azaitar has yet to end up on the mat in his two UFC fights and incredibly dangerous on the feet. With just over five minutes of Octagon time in the last five years, who knows what Azaitar’s cardio looks like and it’s entirely possible Frevola can wear him out on the mat and find a finish on the ground. Azaitar’s brother Abu, came off his own long layoff against Marc-Andre Barriault and gassed out hard in the back half of that fight and got obliterated in the third round. Just sayin’. Frevola will push the pace and if he can avoid getting knocked out, we like his chances the longer this fight goes. We still give the advantage to Azaitar in the first round based on his history and Frevola having a history of getting knocked out early, but if this fight makes it out of the first round, give us Frevola.
Our favorite bet here is “Azaitar R1 KO” at +320.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Frevola is coming off a face-melting 158 point performance where he landed an insane four knockdowns in a fight that lasted less than four minutes. Normally that would result in his ownership sky-rocketting, but due to the massive line flip in this fight he is now extremely overpriced and his ownership will move to the former underdog, Azaitar, who is a first round finishing machine himself and is now severely underpriced. That makes Frevola a very interesting leverage play in tournaments. Just keep in mind Frevola’s been knocked out in 60 seconds or less twice in the UFC and is now going against an opponent with sledgehammers for hands who has knocked out five straight fighters, with the last four ending in round one. We have no idea what Azaitar’s cardio looks like as he hasn’t fought in two years and hasn’t seen a second round since 2017. We do know his brother gassed out hard late in a fight following a long layoff, so who’s to say he won’t do the same? We generally see ultra explosive fighters struggle with their cardio and Frevola will happily mix in some wrestling to expedite that fuel drain. While there’s still a really good chance Frevola gets immediately starched in this match, if he can either get the fight to the ground early or simply survive the first five minutes, we like his chances of taking over in the back half and potentially putting up a slate-breaking score if Azaitar gasses out. You couldn’t ask for a better leverage spot. The odds imply he has a 42% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Azaitar has knocked both of his UFC opponents out in the first round, although his last finish was so efficient, it only scored 97 DraftKings points. He wasn’t awarded a knockdown as he sort of shoved Worthy to the ground while landing a flurry of strikes. Prior to that, he notched 111 DraftKings points in his UFC debut, and has now knocked out five straight opponents going back to his pre-UFC days. He clearly has massive upside and priced at just $7,700 on DraftKings it’s really hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he lands another early knockout. After opening the week as a slight -105 dog, the line has flipped and he’s now all the way up to a -155 favorite depending where you look. That value combined with his upside will drive his ownership way up, limiting his tournament appeal to some extent but locking him into low-risk lineups. Considering he hasn’t fought in two years, hasn’t had to wrestle any in the UFC, and only has five and half minutes of fight time since 2017, he’s littered with red flags and we have no idea what his cardio will look like if this fight makes it past the first round. So while he has unquestionable upside and Frevola has been knocked out in 60 seconds or less in two of his three UFC losses, there are lots of ways Azaitar busts here and if he does then he’ll take a big chunk of the field down with him. Being under the field on him in tournaments is definitely risky, but it’s a great leverage opportunity. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Andre Petroski
4th UFC Fight (3-0)After losing on The Ultimate Fighter, the UFC still gave Petroski a shot and even awarded him with two of the easiest matchups they could find in his first two UFC fights. He capitalized on the opportunities with a pair of third round finishes and then followed it up with a first round submission win over his first actual test in Nick Maximov. In fairness that fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, but Petroski has also competed in some grappling matches against big names like Phil Hawes and Eryk Anders and beat both of them.
In Petroski’s last fight, Maximov shot for a takedown in the opening minute, but after a brief scramble on the mat Petroski wrapped up Maximov’s neck and choked him unconscious. The fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take much away from it, but Maximov finished ahead in striking 4-1.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Petroski has four wins by KO and four by submission. His only official career loss came in a 2020 R2 TKO, but he was also submitted in the second round on The Ultimate Fighter, although those fights are technically counted as exhibition matches so it doesn’t show up on his official record. Petroski has yet to see the judges in his career.
Overall, Petroski is a BJJ brown belt and a one-dimensional wrestler, who hasn’t really been tested yet in the UFC, unless you count the 76 seconds that his most recent fight lasted. He was notorious for having cardio issues prior to joining the UFC, but then landed back-to-back third round finishes in his first two UFC fights, so he appears to have improved in that area. Just keep in mind neither of those opponents were making Petroski wrestle defensively. He hasn’t faced any submission threats yet, so this next matchup is pretty interesting.
Wellington Turman
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Turman is coming off a second round submission win over Misha Cirkunov after winning a split decision over Sam Alvey just before that, despite having two points deducted in the third round for eye pokes. Prior to the pair of wins, Turman got knocked out in the first round in back-to-back fights against Bruno Silva and Andrew Sanchez, after splitting a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights. Three of his last four fights have ended in under seven minutes.
In his last fight, Turman ended up on the back of Cirkunov early on in the fight after Cirkunov returned to his feet following a brief grappling exchange. Turman looked to lock up a rear-naked choke, but Cirkunov patiently tried to fight it off until Turman nearly locked up the choke. However, Cirkunov was able to shuck him off to the side and then began landing ground and pound and finished the round on top. Both guys looped to be slowing to start the second round, but Cirkunov got the fight back to the mat with a trip a minute in to regain top position. However, in the blink of an eye, Turman threw up an armbar and Cirkunov immediately tapped. The fight ended with Cirkunov ahead 30-15 in significant strikes and 50-24 in total strikes. He landed the only official takedown in the fight, with both guys attempting three.
Now 18-5 as a pro, Turman has four wins by KO, eight by submission, and six decisions. However, he only has one submission victory since 2019 and his last knockout win was all the way back in 2016, coming against a stat-padding opponent who came in 0-11 and is now 0-17 with all 17 losses ending early. Turman has never knocked out a legitimate opponent and his can-crushing record should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Six of his eight submission wins have come in the first round, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. He’s been knocked out twice and has three decision losses, but has never been submitted himself.
Overall, Turman is a BJJ black belt but has gone just 8 for 39 (20.5% accuracy) on his takedown attempts in his six UFC fights, while defending six of the seven attempts against him (85.7% defense). He’s shot for seven or more takedowns in four of his six UFC fights, so it will be interesting to see how he approaches a fight against a wrestler in Petroski. Turman has shown a suspect chin in the past and only averages 2.96 SSL/min and 4.04 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” but Petroski will have a 1” reach advantage. Turman is five years younger than the 31-year-old Petroski.
This is actually a pretty interesting matchup as both of these two rely on their grappling and neither one of them is that great of a striker. They also both have some cardio concerns so overall they mirror each other in several facets. Both guys are typically looking to submit their opponents, but neither one of them has ever been submitted themselves. The level of competition they’ve been facing is where things differ the most, as Petroski beat two guys who have no business being in the UFC in his first two fights and then quickly subbed Maximov, who was recently cut. Turman has actually faced decent competition, so it will be interesting to see what difference that makes in this matchup. We could see the fight going a lot of different ways, as a grappling stalemate is always possible where we end up seeing more striking than expected, but we’re still expecting Petroski to be looking to take it to the ground. We just saw Turman land an armbar off his back and another defensive submission is definitely in play. However, if he’s unable to do that, we expect Petroski to control him and look for a finish of his own on the mat. It’s hard to know how the cardio will hold up for either guy, which just adds to the uncertainty, but if both guys gas out we could see them limp to a decision. Of all the fights on the card, this is the one we feel the least comfortable with in terms of making a prediction, with so many unknowns in play. With that said, as long as Petroski can avoid getting submitted, we like his chances to win.
Our favorite bet here is “Turman SUB” at +500.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Petroski has been a consistent DFS producer, averaging 105 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins. Just keep in mind his first two wins came against very low level talent and his last victory ended so quickly that it was hard to even evaluate how he stacks up against real competition. That makes this somewhat of a higher variance spot as he faces somehow with actual submission skills. With that said, Petroski’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting is a great fit for the DraftKings scoring system and he has the ability to score well there even without a finish. He also attempted a ridiculous six submissions in his second most recent fight, which boosts his scoring potential on FanDuel. There’s a chance he gets submitted himself in this matchup, which makes his floor a bit shakier, but he still has a high ceiling. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Turman is coming off his first early win in the UFC, but still scored just 82 DraftKings points in the second round submission victory. Prior to that, he had only scored 74 and 73 points in his two decision wins and has yet to demonstrate any sort of actual ceiling. He averages a slate-leading 9.9 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, but only has a 20% takedown accuracy and has only landed four total takedowns in his last five fights. Now he’ll be going against a wrestler who has yet to be taken down in the UFC, so this is a tough spot for Turman to boost his score with takedowns. Turman hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2016 and appears reliant on landing a submission to win this match. And even a late round submission will likely not score very well, as we saw in his last fight. However, his cheap price tag does keep him in the value play discussion if he can find a finish. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Erin Blanchfield
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Still undefeated in the UFC, Blanchfield has won six straight fights since suffering the only loss of her career in a 2019 Invicta split decision to Tracy Cortez. Blanchfield bounced back from the loss with two straight finishes followed by a decision win, before making her UFC debut in 2021 against Sarah Aplar and winning another decision. She then dominated Miranda Maverick for three rounds in another decision win, before landing her first UFC finish in a second round submission over J.J. Aldrich. Blanchfield absolutely dominated her first two UFC opponents, as she landed 10 takedowns on 11 attempts with almost 22 minutes of total control time in those two matches, but struggled to find the same grappling success in her last fight.
In her last fight, Blanchfield finally faced some adversity for the first time in the UFC in her last fight, but was still able to adjust on the fly after being unable to land any takedowns and still landed a second round submission from a standing guillotine choke. Aldrich has a really solid 75% takedown defense that has only improved recently, and we expected Blanchfield to struggle to land takedowns in the fight as she failed to land any of her four attempts. However, it was interesting that Aldrich opted to try and take Blanchfield down six times, landing two of those attempts. Blanchfield was able to knock Aldrich to the mat midway through round two and as Aldrich tried to return to her feet Blanchfield wrapped up her neck and locked in a high-elbow standing guillotine choke to finish the fight. Blanchfield finished ahead in significant strikes 48-32 and in total strikes 68-38.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Blanchfield has two wins by KO, two by submission, and five decisions. Her only career loss came in a 2019 split-decision to Tracy Cortez. Her four early wins were split across the first two rounds, but her last five fights have all seen the second round.
Overall, Blanchfield is a BJJ black belt and is primarily a grappler but appears to slowly be expanding her striking repertoire and she landed a second round KO by head kick in 2020. Her striking game is still relatively unimpressive compared to her grappling, but earlier in her career she would spend entire fights in the clinch whereas recently she’s been more willing to stand and trade at times when she needs to. She’s still just 23 years old and improving every time she steps inside the Octagon.
Molly McCann
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Apparently Molly McCann turns into a superhero when you stick her in front of her home English crowd, which is the position she was in for both of her last two fights. After failing to finish anybody in her first seven UFC fights, McCann landed back-to-back knockouts in England, both with spinning back elbows—although the second of those wasn’t nearly as clean as the first and required additional strikes to be landed. We’ve seen McCann consistantly struggle against solid grapplers, but she’s defeated everyone else she’s faced in the UFC.
In her last fight, McCann took an early striking lead over Hannah Goldy and was able to stuff all five of Goldy’s takedown attempts. However, Goldy was able to press McCann up against the cage for a minute early on, she just couldn’t get the fight to the ground. Late in the round, McCann landed a big spinning elbow and followed it up with a barrage of punches along the fence to drop Goldy and end the fight in impressive fashion. The fight ended with McCann ahead 24-9 in significant strikes and 29-9 in total strikes.
Now 13-4 as a pro, McCann has six wins by KO and seven decisions. The only time she’s ever been finished was in a second round submission in her UFC debut against Gillian Robertson. She had seen the second round in 11 straight fights leading up to her recent first round TKO win and after getting submitted in her debut, McCann fought to six straight decisions leading up to her recent pair of knockouts. All three of her UFC losses have come against grapplers in Lara Procopio, Taila Santos, and Gillian Robertson.
Overall, McCann brings a WWF vibe to the Octagon as she looks to put on a good show every time they lock her in the cage. She’s a high-volume striker who averages 5.84 SSL/min and 4.84 SS/min, and she also mixes in takedowns, averaging 1.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Her biggest weaknesses are getting taken down herself and operating off her back, which is why she’s struggled so much against grapplers. When she faces strikers and has the luxury of standing and banging or looking for takedowns of her own, she’s never lost a UFC fight. In her nine UFC fights, McCann has been taken down 15 times on 28 opponent attempts (46.4% defense). She’s only faced three grapplers and if we just look at those three fights, she was taken down 14 times on 20 attempts (30% defense).
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’4” but Blanchfield will have a 4” reach advantage and is nine years younger than the 32-year-old McCann.
While McCann is always a fun fighter to watch, this is a nightmare matchup for her as she faces a solid grappler in Blanchfield. McCann consistently struggles against grapplers and unless she can land another random spinning back elbow KO before her back hits the mat, she’s going to have a really tough time winning this fight. McCann seems to perform better in England with the home crowd hyping her up, and while she’ll still likely feed off the New York crowd, it’s not quite the same. We expect this fight to look closer than the odds suggest when it’s on the feet, but as soon as Blanchfield lands a takedown, everyone will just be like, oh right. It’s more likely that Blanchfield grinds out a decision, but she definitely has a shot at landing a submission here, which would most likely come in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Blanchfield SUB” at +420.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Blanchfield is coming off her worst DFS performance in three UFC appearances and still scored 95 DraftKings in a second round submission win. That was a much tougher matchup than this one is when it comes to landing takedowns and we fully expect Blanchfield to find much more success getting this fight to the ground. She scored 115 and 126 DraftKings points in a pair of grappling-heavy decisions in her first two UFC wins and we’re expecting something similar here as McCann has just a 46% career takedown defense and really struggles off her back. Blanchfield can score well on DraftKings regardless of whether or not she finds a finish, but will have a tougher time returning value at her high price tag without a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply she has a 76% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 14% chance it comes in round one.
McCann is coming off the best two scoring performances of her career, which isn’t surprising considering those were also her only two finishes in the UFC. She scored 111 DraftKings points in her recent R1 KO win, after notching 110 points in a third round knockout just before that. McCann was also able to score 109 points in a 2019 decision, but it required both a high striking total and five takedowns. She’s unlikely to find much wrestling success against Blanchfield, which will leave her reliant on striking and landing a finish to score well. Considering Blanchfield will be looking to take McCann down, a high scoring volume driven decision win for McCann is unlikely. She probably needs to land a finish to both win this fight and score well. The odds imply she has a 24% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Dominick Reyes
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Reyes is coming off three straight losses and hasn’t competed in 18 months, but in fairness to him, those losses all came against current and former Light Heavyweight champions in Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. The last two of those losses both ended in second round knockouts, after Reyes fought Jones to a close five-round decision. Prior to the string of defeats, Reyes was undefeated as a pro.
In his last fight, Reyes took Prochazka down two minutes into the first round by Reyes, which was somewhat surprising considering Reyes came into the fight with just a 16.7% career takedown accuracy and had only landed one takedown on six attempts in his previous eight UFC matches. Reyes wasn’t able to do anything with the takedown, however, as Prochazka was able to explode out after 30 seconds. Once returning to his feet, Prochazka continued to push the pace on the feet, backing Reyes up against the cage and landing dozens of heavy shots as he finished the first round ahead 45-39 in significant strikes. Prochazka continued to push the pace in round two, but Reyes caught him with a clean left head midway through round two that appeared to wobble Prochazka and forced him to shoot a takedown to buy time to recover. Instead of committing to keeping the fight standing, Reyes went for a guillotine, and while it looked tight initially, Prochazka was able to escape and end up on top in a great position. As Prochazka proceeded to rain down ground and pound, Reyes was able to return to his feet, but Prochazka continued to land heavy shots along the fence and then caught Reyes with a clean spinning elbow that immediately relieved Reyes from consciousness and face planted him to the mat, ending the fight in dramatic fashion. The fight ended with Prochazka ahead 77-63 in significant strikes and 78-68 in total strikes, while both fighters landed their only takedown attempt.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Reyes has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and three decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss. All nine of his early wins have come in round one, while both of his early losses ended in round two. Five of his last six fights have made it to the second round, with three of those going the distance.
Overall, Reyes is pretty much a one-dimensional striker and has landed just two takedowns in nine UFC appearances and doesn't offer much in terms of wrestling. He was a former college football player and his background was not in martial arts. He averages 4.77 SSL/min and 3.73 SSA/min. With his last win coming all the way back in 2019, it’s hard to know where Reyes is at mentally right now after losing two title shots and then a top contender fight.
Ryan Spann
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Continuing to trade wins and losses for his last five fights, Spann is coming off a first round submission win over Ion Cutelaba, who appeared oblivious to the fact that Spann is known for his guillotine choke. That was Spann’s fourth straight fight to end in the first round, after he got submitted by Anthony Smith just before that, after knocking out Misha Cirkunov, and getting knocked out by Johnny Walker. The last time Spann made it out of the first round was in a 2020 split decision win over Sam Alvey, which was just the second time Spann has gone the distance in eight UFC appearances.
In Spann’s last fight, Cutelaba took him down just under a minute into the first round and immediately found himself in full mount. However, Spann was able to work his way back to his guard and then back to his feet. Cutelaba immediately looked to get him down again and you could already see Spann trying to cinch up a guillotine choke, although Cutelaba brushed it off and landed his second takedown. Again, he wasn’t able to hold the position as Spann immediately kicked him off and returned to his feet. And again, Cutelaba took Spann right back down to the mat. The dance continued as Spann again immediately returned to his feet for the third straight time and as Cutelaba looked for his fourth takedown in the opening minutes, Spann locked up a guillotine and forced a quick tap. The fight ended with Spann ahead just 4-2 in significant strikes and 5-2 in total strikes, while Cutelaba landed all three of his takedown attempts.
Now 20-7 as a pro, Spann has five wins by KO, 12 by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has lost two decisions. All eight of his fights to end in knockouts (5-3) have ended in the first round, as have 10 of his 12 submission wins and one of his two submission losses. He’s had two fights end in second round submissions (1-1), while the only time we’ve seen a finish in one of his fights beyond the eight minute mark was in a 2015 R3 submission win in his seventh pro fight. Nine of his 12 submission wins have come by guillotine, while he also has three by rear-naked choke. Overall, 19 of his 27 pro fights have ended in the first five minutes (70.4%). Twelve of his last 14 fights have ended early, with 11 of those ending in R1.
Overall, Spann is a mid-level finisher who looks to end fights early either through striking or submissions (typically by guillotine). His last three losses have all come in under four minutes and he hasn’t seen the second round in two and a half years. However, two of the last three times he made it out of the first round he ended up going the distance, and he’s the most dangerous in round one. Spann only averages 3.35 SSL/min and 3.41 SSA/min and he only landed 51 and 46 significant strikes in his two UFC decisions, but still won both of those. He hasn’t landed a takedown in his last three fights, and has landed five total in his UFC career.
UPDATE: Spann missed weight by 0.6 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Spann will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, and is one year younger than the 32-year-old Reyes.
It’s always hard to know how fighters will look following extended layoff, and that becomes even more uncertain with Reyes considering he has lost three straight and has been knocked out in his last two losses. While all of those losses did come against a higher level of competition than he’s facing here, it’s hard to know where he’s at from both a mental and physical standpoint right now. That makes this a higher variance spot, but if he can regain his past form then he should be equipped to deal with an opponent like Spann, who’s dangerous, but not a real title contender like the last three opponents Reyes has faced. We don’t know what version of Reyes will show up on Saturday, which makes this a challenging spot to predict, but we expect Reyes to come in a little more tentatively and he’s talked about improving his defense. If he can slow things down early and survive the first round when Spann’s the most dangerous, then he should be able to put himself in a good spot to either outland his way to a decision victory or land a late finish. While it’s rare to see Spann’s fight last the full 15 minutes, we’re taking Reyes by decision here, but it’s definitely not a comfortable pick.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +280.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Reyes has been a R1 KO or bust option throughout his career, with all nine of his early wins ending in round one. He only scored 48 and 82 DraftKings points in his two decision wins and has given us no indication that he can score well without a finish. He’s only landed two takedowns in nine UFC fights and averages 4.77 SSL/min. At his expensive price tag even a second round knockout could fail to be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups and we’re continuing to treat him as a R1 or bust play. Working in his favor, he projects to be very low owned despite the odds indicating that he’s the most likely fighter on the slate to land a finish, and Spann has been finished in the first round in his last three losses. The odds imply Reyes has a 66% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Spann has so far been entirely reliant on landing first round finishes to score well and scored just 66 and 63 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins. He also only scored 79 points in a 2019 second round submission victory and his low striking volume (3.35 SSL/min) is problematic in DFS. Working in his favor, 15 of his 20 career wins have come in the first round, although 12 of those occurred prior to joining the UFC. Similar to Reyes, Spann will be dependent on a first round finish to really score well, although his cheaper price tag could allow him to serve a value play with a later round finish. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Renato Moicano
14th UFC Fight (8-5)Moicano put himself in a really tough spot in his last outing when he stepped in on short notice to face RDA in a five-round main event just a few weeks after defeating Alexander Hernandez in a second round submission. That was Moicano’s second straight R2 submission win, after he finished Jai Herbert just before that. Prior to the pair of submission wins, Moicano had lost three of his previous four fights—all by KO in six minutes or less. Seven of his last eight fights have ended in the opening two rounds (4-3), with four submission wins and three KO losses.
In his last fight, Moicano replaced Rafael Fiziev on just four days’ notice and had almost no time to prepare for the five-round fight. Dos Anjos was able to out wrestle Moicano and control him for extended periods of time on the mat, while also winning the striking exchanges. Dos Anjos wobbled Moicano with a head kick midway through the third round that looked like it might be the beginning to the end, but Moicano was able to hang on off his back to survive the round. The fight was close to getting stopped after the third round and even closer after round four, however, the doctor, ref, and corner all allowed a battered Moicano to go out there for a 5th round. Dos Anjos took it easy on Moicano in the final five minutes, allowing him to survive to see a decision opposed to pushing for a finish, which was there if he really wanted it. The fight ended with RDA ahead 149-88 in significant strikes and 179-99 in total strikes. He landed 5 of his 15 takedown attempts with 13:22 in control time, while Moicano failed to land any of his three takedown attempts.
Now 16-5-1 as a pro, Moicano has never knocked anybody out, but has nine wins by submission, and seven decision wins. Three of those submissions came in round one, five ended in round two, and one came in round three in his 2010 pro debut. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once (R3 2017), and has one decision loss, which occurred in his recent short notice five-round fight against RDA. All three of his KO losses occurred in under six minutes, with two ending in round one. Moicano fought at 145 lb until 2020 when he moved up to 155 lb. He’s gone 3-2 since moving up a weight class, with all three of those wins ending by submission in the first two rounds.
Overall, Moicano is a BJJ black belt and a great, but has the IQ of a bagel and often fails to take the path of least resistance. He’s shown a suspect chin at times, although more so when he was fighting down at 145 lb and he’s looked more durable in recent fights. He also has an over inflated ego that often gets him into trouble at times. With that said, he’s been doing a better job of using his grappling recently and he’s landed 8 takedowns on 18 attempts since moving up to 155 lb, after landing just one total takedown on just two attempts in his last four fights at 145 lb. He has a 48% career takedown accuracy and a 73% defense, while averaging 4.80 SSL/min and 4.07 SSA/min. He’s lost the last four fights where he’s failed to land a takedown and won the last four where he landed at least one.
Brad Riddell
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Looking to bounce back from a pair of early losses, Riddell was recently finished in just 45 seconds by Jalin Turner after getting knocked out in the third round by Rafael Fiziev. Prior to the pair of losses, Riddell had won seven straight fights, with the last five of those all going the distance. Prior to making the switch to MMA, Riddell was a world champion kickboxer where he went 59-10.
In his last fight, Riddell got caught with a big right hand 30 seconds into the fight against a massive Jalin Turner, who followed it up with a nice body shot. That forced Riddell to look for a takedown and Turner quickly wrapped up a guillotine to force a tap 45 seconds into the first round. Turner finished ahead 3-2 in striking in the quick fight.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Riddell has five wins by KO and five decisions. All three of his losses have come early, with one KO and two submissions. His first six pro fights all ended in the first two rounds (5-1), but then he saw the third round in six straight matches leading up to his first round loss. Prior to joining the UFC, Riddell had competed at both 155 lb and 170 lb, but has exclusively fought at 155 lb since joining the UFC.
Overall, Riddell is a dangerous kickboxer who has shown an increased willingness to look for takedowns in his last few fights. While he only attempted two takedowns in his first two UFC fights, landing both, he’s landed 7 takedowns on 22 attempts in his last four matches. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down 15 times on 40 opponent attempts (62.5% defense) in his six UFC fights. While his last two opponents didn’t try to take him down, Riddell was taken down three or more times by his first three UFC opponents. Riddell isn’t a guy that will put up huge striking totals, and has never landed more than 91 significant strikes in a UFC fight, but he makes his shots count and it’s only a matter of time until he notches his first knockout win with the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Moicano will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Riddell is two years younger than the 33-year-old Moicano.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler matchup, with both guys coming off losses. Riddell has been finished in his last two fights and all three of his career losses, while Moicano has also been finished in four of his five career losses. Riddell will need to keep this fight standing at all costs against the dangerous grappler in Moicano, which could force him into a more defensive approach as he focuses on not getting taken down. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the life shortening beating Moicano took in his last fight has on him moving forward, but he never stopped trying to win in that matchup and showed a ton of heart. If this fight ends early, it will be from either a Moicano submission or a Riddell KO, with the result hinging on whether or not Riddell can keep it standing. We could see it going either way, but we lean towards Moicano getting it to the ground and landing a submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Moicano R1 or R2 SUB” at +350.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Moicano has only required the judges once in his last eight fights, with four of those fights ending in the first round and three in round two. He’s a high-level grappler but has been prone to getting knocked out, which typically results in his fights ending early. We saw the exception to that in his last match when he faced a fellow BJJ black belt, but now he’ll face a kickboxer in Riddell and Moicano will have a massive advantage on the ground. With that said, Riddell is really tough despite getting finished in his last two fights and Moicano will be in trouble if this fight stays standing. Moicano’s low fight IQ makes him a tougher fighter to count on as we’ve seen him get sucked into striking battles in the past, which leaves him as a boom or bust option with a huge ceiling but also the potential to get knocked out in the first round. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Riddell has been finished in two straight fights after looking indestructible earlier in his career. While all of his career losses have come early, all four of his UFC wins have gone the distance. He was able to score 100 DraftKings points in one of those with the help of five takedowns, but averaged 73 points in the other three. There’s no way he’ll be looking to take Moicano down here, which leaves Riddell dependent on landing a knockout to score well. Working in his favor, Moicano has been prone to getting knocked out, with three KO losses in under six minutes in his last seven fights. The odds imply Riddell has a 48% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Dan Hooker
20th UFC Fight (11-8)Desperate for a win, Hooker has been finished in the first round in his last two fights and has now lost four of his last five, with his last three losses all ending in round one. In fairness to him, those losses came against incredibly tough opponents in Arnold Allen (down at 145 lb), Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler, and Dustin Poirier. After a failed attempt at dropping down to 145 lb in his last match, Hooker is now smartly returning to 155 lb for this next match.
In Hooker’s last fight, Allen patiently controlled the distance for the first minute before unloading on Dan Hooker with a lengthy combination of punches a minute in. While Hooker was narrowly able to survive the barrage of strikes, after taking a short break to prevent gassing out, Allen went back to work and forced a stoppage on the feet as he landed a series of punches, kicks and elbows against a defenseless Hooker along the cage. Allen finished ahead in significant strikes 49-14 and in total strikes 50-14, with neither guy attempting a takedown in the match. In addition to fighting down a weight class, that match also took place in Allen’s home country of England.
Now 21-12 as a pro, Hooker has 10 wins by KO, seven by submission, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has six decision defeats. While he’s been knocked out three times in his last nine fights, the only person to submit him since 2012 is the current champion Islam Makhachev. Hooker’s last eight fights have all either ended in the first round (1-3) or gone the distance (3-1)
Overall, Hooker is primarily a striker but will mix in takedowns although he’s just a BJJ purple belt. He’s only been taken down twice on 15 opponent attempts in his last 10 fights and has a solid 78% career takedown defense. He averages 4.91 SSL/min and 4.81 SSA/min and has no problem throwing down in a brawl.
Claudio Puelles
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Coming off his second straight kneebar submission victory, Puelles is a one-trick pony but has still managed to pull off that trick in three of his last five fights. He also has two grappling-heavy decision wins in the UFC. He hasn’t faced much in terms of competition so it will be interesting to see how he fares as he moves up in the division.
In Puelles last fight, Clay Guida idiotically shot for a takedown 40 seconds into the first round and put the fight exactly where Puelles wanted it. Puelles quickly began looking for submissions off his back. While Guida was able to defend the initial attempts, Puelles was slickly able to roll into a kneebar and immediately force a tap midway through the round. The fight ended with Guida ahead 3-1 in significant strikes and Puelles leading 11-4 in total strikes.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Puelles has two wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and three decision victories. His last four submission wins all ended in kneebars, with two of these ending in round one and two in round three. His only UFC loss ended in a second round TKO in his 2016 UFC debut and he’s won five straight fights.
Overall, Puelles is a decent grappler and excels at locking up kneebars. He hasn’t shown much in terms of striking, although he has made some improvements on the feet over the years after being completely helpless as a striker earlier in his career. Despite making his UFC debut all the way back in 2016, Puelles is still just 26 years old, so it makes sense that he is still improving and rounding out his game. He’s landed 12 takedowns on 31 attempts in his six UFC fights (38.7% accuracy), but only averages 1.99 SSL/min.
Fight Prediction:
Hooker will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also six years older than the 26-year-old Puelles.
Dan Hooker made two terrible choices that completely changed the way the world looks at him. First, he accepted a short notice fight against Islam Makhachev in fight he couldn’t win. Then he compounded the mistake by dropping down a weight class and showing up as an emaciated corpse against Arnold Allen, who immediately finished him. Neither of those are actual indicators that Hooker can no longer be competitive at 155 lb, they were just terrible errors in judgment. However, that does beg the question of whether or not we’ll see another mental error in this next fight with Hooker engaging with Puelles on the mat. On the feet, Hooker can run laps around Puelles, so he’ll just need to keep the fight standing to win. Puelles has only landed one of his last eight takedowns attempts in his most recent two fights, but he has been able to land at least one takedown in all five of his UFC fights where he attempted one. So if Hooker does find himself on the mat, he’ll need to be very careful and not allow Puelles to set up yet another kneebar. As long as Hooker doesn’t foolishly allow himself to get kneebarred or controlled on the mat for two rounds, he wins this fight. He may be tougher to finish Puelles unless Hooker lands a clean knockout, as it will be risky to join him on the mat to look for a finish following a knockdown. Because of that, we like Hooker to win a decision here, but he’s definitely capable of landing a knockout.
Our favorite bet here is Hooker’s ML at -145.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Hooker has lost four of his last five fights and has been finished in the first round in his last three losses, showing a non-existent floor. And while he scored 108 DraftKings points in his last three-round decision win, that came in a wrestling-heavy win that he’s extremely unlikely to replicate here as he faces a one-dimensional grappler. That will leave Hooker reliant on finding a finish to score well and because Puelles will be trying to get this fight to the mat and grappler, we don’t expect to see much in terms of striking volume. Therefore Hooker will likely need either a first round finish or a second round knockout with multiple knockdowns to return value at his expensive price tag. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Puelles is a one-dimensional grappler who relies on landing kneebars to finish fights. He’s been able to achieve that in two straight fights so expect the field to chase those results at his cheap price tag and even in his last match Puelles was 29% owned, priced at 8K on DraftKings. Despite three of his five UFC wins coming early, Puelles has never hit 100 points on DraftKings, but has scored 84 or more in his last four wins, showing a solid floor, especially at his cheaper price tag. This will be the toughest opponent of his career, and Hooker has a solid 78% takedown defense and the only person to submit him since 2012 is Islam Makhachev. Hooker has also only been taken down twice in his last 10 fights on 15 opponent attempts, so Puelles will likely struggle to get his fight to the mat. He hasn’t shown the ability to win a striking battle and we expect Hooker to dominate the striking exchanges, leaving Puelles as an overowned submission or bust play. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Chris Gutierrez
9th UFC Fight (6-1-1)Undefeated in his last seven fights, Gutierrez has gone 6-0-1 since getting submitted in the second round of his 2018 UFC debut by Raoni Barcelos. Five of his last seven fights have gone the distance, but he does have a pair of round two TKO wins during that stretch, one by leg kicks. His third most recent TKO win also came by leg kicks and Gutierrez is known for his violent leg attacks. Two of his five UFC decisions have been split and another ended in a draw, so we have seen him involved in several close decisions.
In his last fight, Gutierrez did a good job of using side to side movement to get out of the way and using his kicks to control the distance. Nevertheless, Danaa pushed forward looking for knockout shots throughout the fight and landed a late takedown in round one, the first of his UFC career, followed by heavy ground and pound to finish the round strong. Gutierrez continued to force Danaa to chase him and midway through round two Danaa walked into a spinning backfist that dropped him. Gutierrez immediately jumped on top and landed a few more shots on the ground and the fight was immediately stopped. Gutierrez finished ahead 41-30 in significant strikes, while Danaa led in total strikes 43-42 and in takedowns 1-0.
Now 18-4-2 as a pro, Gutierrez has eight wins by TKO, one by submission and nine decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once to go along with three decision losses. Six of his eight TKO wins have come in the later rounds, including his most recent four, and he tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on, largely by chipping away at their legs.
Overall, leg kicks are Gutierrez’s primary weapon for ending fights early and that’s how he landed two of his last three TKOs. He also likes to mix in spinning attacks, which is how he finished his most recent TKO. He does have one submission win on his record, but he’s not much of a threat on the ground and he’s only landed three takedowns in his seven UFC fights. All of his UFC fights have seen a second round, with five ending in decisions. He’s been taken down 9 times on 34 opponent attempts (73.5% defense) in his eight UFC fights. Six of the seven opponents who have tried to take him down have landed at least one of their attempts, but no one has ever gotten him down more than twice.
Frankie Edgar
30th UFC Fight (18-10-1)Edgar will be stepping into the Octagon for the final time on Saturday as he’s stated this will be his final UFC fight. He’s coming off back-to-back violent KO losses and has lost four of his last five matches, with the one win coming in a controversial five-round split decision that he arguably lost to Pedro Munhoz. Edgar’s last three and four of his last five defeats have ended in knockouts. The most recent of those came at the hands of Marlon Vera in the third round, after Cory Sandhagen finished Edgar in just 28 seconds just before that. He also got knocked out in the first round by The Korean Zombie in 2019 and by Brian Ortega in 2018. The last time he finished an opponent was in a 2017 post R2 doctor stoppage win over Yair Rodriguez, with his second most recent finish coming all the way back in 2015.
In his last fight, Edgar started strong as he was able to control Vera on the mat for the majority of the first round, while also landing nearly twice as many strikes in the round. Edgar was again able to take Vera down early in round two, but that time Vera was able to return to his feet after a minute on his back, unlike in round one. At that point, the momentum began to turn in Vera’s favor as he backed Edgar against the cage and landed several clean shots. He continued to dictate the pace for the remainder of the fight until he eventually landed a late third round knockout with a front kick to Edgar’s chin. The fight ended with Edgar ahead in significant strikes 94-88 and in total strikes 138-110. He also landed three of his nine takedown attempts with four and a half minutes of control time before getting knocked out late in round three.
Now 24-10-1 as a pro, Edgar has seven wins by KO, four submissions, and 13 decision wins. He’s been knocked out four times and has six decision defeats. While Edgar was extremely durable for the first 28 fights of his career, with zero early losses during that time, he’s now been knocked out four times in his last seven fights. Edgar started his pro career in 2005 at 155 lb, before moving down to 145 lb in 2013. He then dropped down to 135 lb in 2020 for his last three fights and has been knocked out in both of his losses at the weight class.
Overall, Edgar is a longtime veteran who already has one foot out the door as he has already announced his retirement from MMA following this fight. He’s a former DI college wrestler and a BJJ black belt. While he has a 31% career takedown accuracy, that number has dropped to 15% in his last eight fights, as he’s only been able to land 7 of his last 46 takedown attempts. He only averages 3.79 SSL/min and 2.81 SSA/min. While Edgar has had a long prestigious UFC career, he probably should have retired a few years ago to avoid taking some of the damage we’ve recently seen.
Fight Prediction:
Gutierrez will have a 3” height advantage, but Edgar will have a 1” reach advantage. Gutierrez is 10 years younger than the 41-year-old Edgar.
Retirement fights rarely go well for the departing party, but the UFC has given Edgar a sliver of hope here as he faces a one-dimensional striker in Gutierrez, and practically in Edgar’s backyard no less. Edgar will need to take Gutierrez down and grind out a decision on the mat if he wants to win the fight. While we wouldn’t be surprised to see Edgar find some early success with that tactic, we expect him to find diminishing returns with his grappling as the fight goes on and Gutierrez has a pretty solid 73% takedown defense, but has been taken down at least once in four straight fights. Gutierrez tends to wear on opponents as fights go on and doesn’t have a ton of knockout power unless he lands a perfect spinning attack. So we’d be surprised if Gutierrez landed a finish in the first round, but a later round knockout is definitely in play. If this does go the distance, as most of Gutierrez’s fights do, there’s a good chance the judging will be biased in favor of Edgar, and a split decision seems inevitable. We still like Gutierrez’s chances of finishing the fight with a late round TKO, but things could get dicey if it goes the distance.
Our favorite bet here is “Gutierrez R2 or R3 KO” at +450.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Gutierrez is coming off just his second finish in his eight fight UFC career, and five of his last seven fights have gone the distance. He’s got great footwork and movement, but that’s often a detriment to his DFS scoring as his elusiveness makes for slower paced fights. He only scored 97 DraftKings points in a round two TKO win in his last outing and has only once topped that in eight UFC appearances, which came in his only other finish with the organization in a 2020 R2 TKO by leg strikes against Vince Morales. Gutierrez landed a pair of knockdowns in that match before the fight was stopped late in the second round. He’s never landed more than a single takedown in a fight and only averages 4.69 SSL/min, so it’s generally tougher for him to be a major DFS contributor. Working in his favor in this next matchup, he’s facing a 41-year-old opponent who already has one foot out the door as he has already announced his retirement. That should increase the chances of Gutierrez finding a finish, but at his high price tag he may need it to either come in the first round or with multiple knockdowns for him to crack tournament winning lineups. Edgar will likely be looking to take Gutierrez down, which could make it even tougher for Gutierrez to score well if he ends up getting controlled for a period of time early in the match. Gutierrez has never scored above 75 DraftKings points in a decision win, and he has basically no shot of returning value without a finish. He does project to be lower owned, which makes him a more interesting tournament play, but he’s essentially a round one KO or bust option. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Edgar is making his final UFC appearance and only scored 55 DraftKings points in his last three-round decision win. He hasn’t finished anybody since 2017 when he was still fighting up at 145 lb, and it’s hard to see him getting a finish here, as Gutierrez has never been knocked out and Edgar is an old man. Working in Edgar’s favor, Gutierrez is a one-dimensional striker who’s been taken down in four straight fights, and Edgar will practically be fighting in his backyard so the Jersey native should have the New York crowd behind him. Edgar also scored 69 DraftKings points in a R3 KO loss in his last fight and found a good amount of wrestling success in the first half of that fight against Marlon Vera before he got turned into a human PEZ dispenser in the third round. So if Edgar can get this fight to the mat, he has the potential to grind out a grappling-heavy decision and score well on DraftKings. It’s much tougher to see him scoring well on FanDuel, so he looks like a DraftKings specific play. Just keep in mind, Gutierrez has a 73% takedown defense, and he’s still never been taken down more than twice in a fight. We wouldn’t be surprised if Edgar finds some early success but struggles to control Gutierrez as the fight goes on. Edgar has also been incredibly prone to getting knocked out lately, so his floor is unreliable. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Dustin Poirier
28th UFC Fight (20-6, NC)Once again looking to bounce back from a third round submission loss in a title fight, Poirier is 11 months removed from getting submitted by Charles Oliveira. Prior to that, he notched back-to-back KO/TKO wins against Conor McGregor, after winning a wild five-round decision over Dan Hooker. Just before that, Poirier got submitted in the third round of another title fight, that time against Khabib Nurmagomedov. So the only two fighters Poirier has beaten since 2019 are McGregor and Hooker and the only opponent Poirier has finished since 2018 is McGregor. Poirier’s last nine fights have all been scheduled to go five rounds and this will be his first three round fight since a 2017 match against Eddie Alvarez that ended as a No Contest due to an illegal knee in the second round.
In his last fight, Poirier dropped Oliveira in the first round and outlanded him 54-48 in significant strikes in the first five minutes, while also stuffing both of Oliveira’s takedown attempts in the round. Oliveira unsurprisingly came out looking to grapple in round two, and while he failed on his initial takedown attempt, he was able to grab Poiriers arm with the help of a blatantly illegal glove grab and drag him down to the mat with him. Oliveira spent the rest of the round in top position landing ground and pound and the illegal glove grab appeared to be the pivotal moment in the fight. Oliveira was able to immediately take Poirier’s back on the feet to open the third round and he quickly locked in a rear-naked choke and forced a tap without the two ever going to the mat. The fight ended with Oliveira ahead 73-58 in significant strikes and 98-69 in total strikes. He didn’t officially land any of his six takedown attempts, but finished with three submission attempts, a reversal, and nearly six minutes of control time.
Now 28-7 as a pro, Poirier has 14 wins by KO, seven by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has two decision losses. Poirier originally joined the UFC in January 2011. After starting his pro career at 155 lb, Poirier dropped down to 145 lb for the first time in his UFC debut. He stayed at 145 lb for his first 11 UFC matches, where he went 8-3, before moving back up to 155 lb following a 2014 loss to McGregor, in the first of their three fights. Since moving back up to 155 lb, Poirier has gone 12-3 plus a No Contest, with the losses coming in a pair of third round submissions against Khabib and Oliveira, and a 2016 first round KO against Michael Johnson. Of those 12 wins at 155 lb, seven ended in KO/TKOs, four went the distance and one ended in a submission. Poirier’s only two losses in his last 11 fights came against Khabib and Oliveira, in the pair of third round submissions against two of the most dangerous grapplers on the planet. Thirteen of Poirier’s 14 career KO/TKO wins have occurred in the opening two rounds, with 10 ending in the first round and three in round two. The one exception was a 2018 R4 TKO over Justin Gaethje.
Overall, Poirier is a BJJ black belt and 7 of his 28 pro wins have come by submission, however, six of those seven submission wins occurred in 2012 or earlier and his only submission win in his last 21 fights strangely ended in a 2017 R3 body triangle against Anthony Pettis, which hardly even counts as a submission win. While he does a good job of mixing in striking and grappling and will go for guillotines, he’s generally looking to knock opponents out or outland his way to victory with the judges. He has notably won the last five decisions he’s been to, with his last decision loss occurring all the way back in 2013. In his last eight fights, Poirier has landed four takedowns on 23 attempts (17.4% accuracy), while getting taken down 11 times on 27 opponent attempts (59.3% defense). However, seven of those takedowns against him were by Khabib, and the only other opponent to be able to get him to the mat over that stretch was Dan Hooker. Poirier hasn’t landed more than one takedown in a fight since 2017, when he landed five against Anthony Pettis. He averages 5.61 SSL/min and 4.28 SSA/min and is rarely in a boring fight.
Michael Chandler
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Chandler recently snapped a two fight skid with a second round KO win over Tony Ferguson. Prior to that, he lost a decision in a three round war against Justin Gaethje, after getting knocked out in the second round by Charles Oliveira. Looking back one fight further, Chandler landed a first round KO win in his January 2021 UFC debut against Dan Hooker, who has lost four of his last five fights. In his loss to Gaethje, both guys traded haymakers and leg strikes, but Gaethje had the more impactful moments and looked extremely close to getting Chandler out of there at multiple points. Gaethje led 26-11 in leg strikes and appeared to be causing real damage with each one he landed. Gaethje also did a great job of defending Chandler’s takedown attempts, as Chandler was only able to land one of his six attempts with essentially no control time.
In Chandler’s last fight, Ferguson actually started out decently before getting taken down midway through the first round by Chandler. While Ferguson was initially very offensive off his back, he began to wilt under the pressure that Chandler was putting on him late in the round. The round ended with Chandler in top position on the mat, before the fight returned to the feet in round two. After briefly sizing up Ferguson in the opening seconds of the second round, Chandler landed a face altering front kick up the middle to the chin of Ferguson that left him lifeless on the mat. That was the first time Ferguson has ever been knocked out cold in his career. The fight ended with Chandler ahead 27-20 in significant strikes and 43-27 in total strikes, while he landed the only takedown attempt in the fight with 2:29 in control time.
Now 23-7 as a pro, Chandler has 11 wins by KO, seven by submission, and five decisions. Five of his seven submissions occurred in 2013 or before and he only has one since 2015, which occurred in 2018. All 11 of his knockout victories have occurred in the first two rounds, as have six of his seven submissions and he’s the most dangerous early on in fights. Overall, 13 of his 18 finishes have come in round one, four have ended in round two, and his only late round finish was a 2011 R4 submission win over Eddie Alvarez. Chandler’s been knocked out four times himself and has also lost three decisions, but he’s never been submitted. Four of his last five losses ended in knockouts. The only time he’s been finished beyond the six minute mark was in a 2014 R4 TKO. His last 13 fights have either ended in less than six minutes (6-3) or gone the distance (3-1).
Overall, Chandler was the three-time Lightweight Bellator Champion before making the switch to the UFC at 34 years old. He’s a former DI All-American wrestler at Mizzou, so while most of his recent wins have been by knockout, he does have a wrestling background to fall back on. He started off fighting at 165-170 lb as a pro, but has been competing at 155 lb since 2011 when he moved down a weight class following his fifth pro fight. He’s generally looked to land bombs and knock guys out, but we did see him attempt six takedowns in his last fight, although he only landed one of those and did nothing with it. In his four UFC fights, Chandler has landed 2 of his 7 takedown attempts (28.6% accuracy), while getting taken down once himself on two attempts (50% defense). Both of those attempts came from Charles Oliveira and no one else has tried to take Chandler down. Since joining the UFC, Chandler is averaging 5.17 SSL/min and 4.87 SSA/min, and his only UFC fight to last longer than six minutes ended in a high-volume brawl.
Fight Prediction:
Poirier will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is three years younger than the 36-year-old Chandler.
This sets up as an exciting brawl between two dangerous strikers. Chandler has the more destructive power and the wrestling advantage, but Poirier is the more technical boxer and has much more UFC experience. With that said, Chandler looks more motivated to try and get another title shot at this point as it’s hard to imagine anyone, including Poirier, interested in seeing him fight Makhachev for the belt. Poirier’s Kryptonite has been high level grapplers, so it will be interesting to see if Chandler looks to wrestle more in this spot. That would look to be a wise decision, but Chandler isn’t really known for his intelligent decision making. He’s more so looking to put on a good show as je aggressively pushes forward and hunts for knockouts. Poirier hasn’t been knocked out since 2016, although he’s been able to rely on his own grappling at times to get him out of trouble, which will be tougher for him to rely on here based on Chandler’s wrestling background. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Chandler find a finish, but if that happens it will likely occur in the first half of this fight when Chandler is the most dangerous. We actually think it’s more likely that both of their chins will hold up and we’ll see another crazy 15 minute brawl here. In a pure striking battle we expect Poirier to come out ahead, so Chandler will need to have the bigger moments and/or mix in some wrestling if he wants to win with the judges. Give us Poirier by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Poirier DEC” at +390.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Poirier hasn’t been in a three-round fight since 2017, as his last nine have all been scheduled to go five rounds. Therefore, his DraftKings scores are inflated as he’s had additional rounds to work with in the fights that have lasted longer than 15 minutes. The field is generally slow to pick up on that, so we should see Poirier’s ownership somewhat inflated, especially when you factor in the hype behind this fight. With that said, this sets up as a high-volume brawl, and we have seen Poirier score decently in three round decisions in the past. However, he’s relied on mixing in takedowns to score well without a finish and it may be tougher for him to achieve that against a wrestler like Chandler. At his high price tag, that likely leaves Poirier reliant on a finish to end up in tournament winning lineups, although he should still score decently even in a decision win. Working in Poirier’s favor, Chandler has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. Just keep in mind, the only opponent Poirier has knocked out since 2018 was Conor McGregor. But Poirier does get a finish, he has the potential to put up a really big score, as we’re expecting non-stop action in this fight. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Chandler is a powerful striker with a history of early knockouts and also has a background in wrestling. That all creates massive scoring potential for him and he totaled 103 and 107 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins, both of which came by KO in under six minutes. However, he only scored 46 DraftKings points in his decision loss to Justin Gaethje, despite that fight being a crazy high-paced brawl. He was only able to land one of his six takedown attempts in that match, so if he had found more wrestling success he could have been looking at a decent score had he gotten his hand raised in the decision. Regardless, that score shows that even in a high-paced brawl he may struggle to score well without a finish or more success on the mat. His cheaper price tag obviously makes it easier for him to end up in tournament winning lineups, but no one has beaten Poirier in a decision since 2013 or knocked him out since 2016. That makes this a tough spot for Chandler to pull off the upset, but his most likely paths to victory will be either to land an early finish or find more wrestling success than he has in the past and grind out a close decision. Both of those should score well, so if Chandler wins he most likely does end up in winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Zhang Weili
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off a second round knockout win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Weili has only faced two opponents in her last four fights. She originally fought Jedrzejczyk in March 2020 and won a five-round split decision in an all out war to maintain the Strawweight belt that she had just won over Jessica Andrade. Weili then lost the belt to Rose Namajunas in a R1 KO, and failed to win it back in a close split decision in the subsequent rematch. Following the pair of title fight losses to Namajunas, Weili won a rematch against Jedrzejczyk most recently. Prior to losing to Namajunas, Weili had won 21 straight fights since losing her 2013 pro debut in a two round decision.
In her last fight, Weili landed a takedown 90 seconds into the first round and went to work with heavy ground and pound. Jedrzejczyk was able to return to her feet, but was unable to escape the grasp of Weili, who continued to push her up against the cage and beat her up before returning her to the mat. Again, Jedrzejczyk returned to her feet and again Weili took her back down. Weili mounted Jedrzejczyk and landed heavy elbows from the position, although her aggressive ground and pound did open a window for Jedrzejczyk to escape and the fight returned to the feet in the final minute of the round. The second round remained on the feet until Weili landed a spinning back fist that face planted Jedrzejczyk and immediately ended the fight. Weili finished ahead 69-43 in significant strikes and 94-44 in total strikes, while landing three of her six takedowns with nearly three minutes in control time.
Now 22-3 as a pro, Weili has 11 wins by KO, seven by submission, and four decisions. Prior to her recent R2 KO win over Jedrzejczyk, Weili hadn’t finished anybody past the first since 2017 and has never landed a finish beyond round two. Of her 18 career finishes, 11 ended in round one, with the other seven coming in round two. The only time she’s ever been finished herself was when she got knocked out and lost the belt to Namajunas in April 2021, with her other two losses both ending in decisions. Weili started off fighting at 132 lb before dropping down to 115 lb in her fourth pro fight. Interestingly, all of her early wins have come in China or other parts of East Asia, while all three of her UFC wins in the US have ended in decisions. Her KO loss to Namajunas took place in Jacksonville, Florida, which was the only time any of her US fights have ended early. Weili has also alternated between fights that have ended early and ones that have gone the distance in nine straight matches and is coming off an early win. Her last two decisions have both been split in five-round title fights.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Weili’s career and 5th UFC title fight. She had one fight scheduled to go five rounds before she joined the UFC, but she knocked her opponent out in the second round. She landed another knockout in her first UFC title fight, which ended just 42 seconds into the first round against Jessica Andrade. Immediately after that, Weili won a split decision over Joanna Jedrzejczyk to defend the belt, before getting knocked out in the first round by Rose Namajunas and then losing a split-decision in the rematch. So Weili is 2-2 in UFC title fights, with two of them ending in first round knockouts (1-1) and the other two ending in split decisions (1-1). Her last two trips to the judges ended in five-round split decisions for the title, with her losing the most recent of those.
Overall, Weili is a powerful striker who will also mix in grappling and has shown she can finish opponents both on the feet and the mat. In her eight UFC fights, she’s landed 13 takedowns on 38 attempts (34.2% accuracy). She’s attempted eight or more takedowns in each of her last three decisions. Looking on the other side of things, she’s only been taken down twice in the UFC, but has only faced five attempts (60% defense). She’s only faced two attempts in her last five matches, both of which were successfully landed by Rose Namajunas. Weili averages a healthy 5.78 SSL/min and 4.26 SSA/min and will gladly throw down in high-volume brawls when given the opportunity.
Carla Esparza
15th UFC Fight (10-4)Esparza is coming off a five-round split decision win over Rose Namajunas for the Strawweight title in one of the worst “fights” of all time. That was her sixth straight victory, with five of those ending in decisions, including four split/majority. Over that stretch, she has wins over several other big names in the divisions such as Marina Rodriguez, Alexa Grasso, and Virna Jandiroba. The last time Esparza lost a fight was in 2018 when she got finished by Tatiana Suarez in a late third round TKO where Suarez was able to take Esparza down nine times on 11 attempts and control her for nearly 13 minutes. The only other time Esparza hasn’t required the judges in her last 12 fights was a second round TKO win over Yan Xiaonan, which is Esparza’s only UFC finish since she submitted Rose Namajunas in the third round of her 2014 UFC debut for the inaugural Strawweight belt on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter. Esparza then immediately relinquished the belt when she got knocked out in the second round of her next fight by Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
In her last fight, so little happened that it’s hard to know how anyone was even supposed to judge it. The first round ended with striking dead even at 4-4, with no takedowns attempted. How do you score that? Round two ended with Esparza ahead 4-3 in striking with just one failed takedown, another head scratcher. Namajunas led in striking in round three 11-9, while Esparza missed on all three of her takedown attempts. Esparza finally landed a pair of takedowns in round four, but was only able to control Namajunas for 20 seconds, and led in significant strikes 8-6. Namajunas had the highest striking total of the night in round five when she landed a whopping 13 strikes to just five for Esparza, while also taking Esparza down once in the round on her only takedown attempt in the fight. All three judges agreed that Esparza won round four and Namajunas won round five, so it just came down to trying to score the first three rounds where literally almost nothing happened. Unsurprisingly the results were split as there was so little to go off of. One judge gave all three of those rounds to Esparza, another gave two of them to Namajunas, and the third gave two of them to Esparza. The fight ended with Namajunas ahead 37-30 in significant strikes and 38-30 in total strikes, while Esparza landed 2 of her 11 takedown attempts and led in control time 22 seconds to 10. Namajunas landed her only takedown attempt in the fight.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Esparza has four wins by TKO, four submissions (all by rear-naked choke), and 11 decisions. She’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has three decision losses. While she’s a BJJ brown belt, three of her four submission wins, as well as her lone submission loss, occurred in her first six pro fights, with her one other submission win coming back in her 2014 UFC debut. Her last 15 fights have all made it past the first round, with 13 of those seeing round three, and 11 going the distance. Esparza is habitually in close decisions, with her last four and 8 of her 14 career decisions being split or majority.
This will be the 5th five-round fight of Esparza’s career and fourth in the UFC. Her first five-round fight ended in a 2013 decision win over Bec Rawlings just before Esparza went on The Ultimate Fighter. A year later Esparza submitted Namajunas in the third round of her UFC debut to win the inaugural Strawweight belt. One fight later, Esparza lost the Strawweight belt to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a second round knockout. Esparza then had to wait seven years for another title shot, in her recent split-decision win over Namajunas. So overall, Esparza has only been past the third round twice in her career and only once in the UFC. So little happened in that recent fight that we can’t even use it as a barometer for Esparza’s championship round cardio.
Overall, Esparza is a former All-American DI collegiate wrestler and relies very heavily on her wrestling to win fights, as she comes into every fight with the game plan of taking it to the mat and averages 9.3 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. In her 14 UFC fights, Esparza has landed 44 takedowns on 124 attempts (35.5% accuracy), with at least one takedown landed in 13 of those fights. She’s landed at least two takedowns in 11 of those 14 matches, and four or more in seven of them. She attempted at least nine takedowns in each of her last five decisions. She’s 9-2 in fights where she’s landed more than a single takedown, with both of those losses ending in split decisions earlier in her career. On the other side of things, Esparza has been taken down 19 times on 36 opponent attempts (47.2% defense). She’s lost two of the three fights where she’s been taken down more than once and has struggled off her back. She’s not one to land much in terms of striking volume and only averages 2.20 SSL/min and 2.59 SSA/min. She’s never landed more than 48 significant strikes in a fight.
Fight Prediction:
Weili will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 63” reach. Weili is two years younger than the 35-year-old Esparza.
While Esparza is a BJJ brown belt, she’s not very good off her back. She’ll think about throwing up an armbar attempt at times, but has never completed one and hasn’t submitted anybody since her 2014 UFC debut. Therefore, it would make some sense for Weili to try and be the aggressor when it comes to wrestling, opposed to simply trying to defend the takedown attempts of Esparza to keep the fight standing, where Weili will clearly have a major advantage in terms of striking. We’ve seen Esparza get overpowered in the past, and she got absolutely dominated on the mat by another high level wrestler in Tatiana Suarez. While Weili’s wrestling isn’t quite at that level, she’s a physical freak and still a decent wrestler. She’s landed eight takedowns on 17 attempts in her last two fights and Esparza has just a 47% takedown defense. If Weili does decide to try and keep the fight on the feet opposed to looking for takedowns, she’ll run the risk of getting taken down herself and controlled for periods of time, which is really the only way we see Esparza winning this fight.
While Weili is always live to knock opponents out early, we expect the winner in this match to be determined by who comes out ahead in the wrestling exchanges. If Weili can take Esparza down or reverse the position on the mat and end up in top position, she has violent ground and pound and would be in a good position to land a finish. She also has three first round armbar wins on her record, so she’s capable of looking for submissions off her back. However, if Esparza can control Weili on the mat and survive the first half of the fight, we like her chances more the longer this fight goes. She’s the queen of split decisions, with her last four trips to the judges all ending in split-decision victories. Weili is much more physically impressive than Esparza and the most likely outcome in this matchup is for Weili to muscle her way to victory and land a finish in the first three rounds, however, we won’t be completely shocked to see Esparza win a close decision. If Esparza looks even remotely competitive in the wrestling exchanges early on, this could be a nice live betting opportunity if the line hasn’t already moved considerably in her favor. With that said, we’re still picking Weili to win this fight with a knockout in the first three rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Weili R1, R2, or R3 Win” at +150.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Weili has consistently shown a massive scoring ceiling as she’s averaged 130 DraftKings points in her three early wins in the UFC, scoring 121 or more in all of those. She also scored 104 points in a five-round decision win and 81 points in a five-round decision loss, both of which were split decisions. Her combination of striking, grappling, and finishing ability is about all you could ask for in a fighter. However, she’s never finished an opponent beyond the second round and is now going against a wrestler who will be looking to take her down and control her on the mat. If Weili does get taken down and controlled early in the fight, it will become tougher for her to return value at her high price tag. With that said, there are two ways Weili can put up a huge score here. She can land another finish in the opening 10 minutes, or she can take Esparza down and go to work with ground and pound. While Esparza is a great wrestler, she’s not very good off her back and Tatiana Suarez was able to take Esparza down 9 times on 11 attempts as she defeated Esparza in a 2018 R3 TKO that scored 157 DraftKings points and 153 points on FanDuel. We don’t know exactly what Weili’s game plan will be, but she’s attempted eight or more takedowns in her last three fights to make it past the second round and Esparza has just a 47% takedown defense and isn’t much of a submission threat off her back. While Esparza has more wrestling experience, Weili is the bigger and stronger fighter, so it will be interesting to see how the wrestling exchanges go, but both fighters have the potential to control the other on the mat. Esparza has only landed one finish in her last 13 fights, so unless Weili spends the entire fight on her back, she should have a decent scoring floor in addition to her massive ceiling. The odds imply she has a 76% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Esparza was recently a participant in one of the worst fights of all time and only scored 53 DraftKings points in a five-round split-decision win. However, she has still averaged 93 DraftKings points in her 10 UFC victories, with six scores of 100 or more and put up a career best 138 points in her second most recent fight. Her wrestling-heavy approach to fighting lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system based on control time and ground strikes and she only has one early win in her last 13 matches and has never landed more than 48 significant strikes in a fight. That generally leaves her reliant on landing a ton of takedowns to score well on FanDuel and her second most recent decision win was good for 101 DraftKings points but just 75 points on FanDuel. Just keep in mind that was in a three-round fight and now she’ll have five rounds to work with—at least if she doesn’t get finished early, which is very possible. While this is unquestionably a tough matchup for Esparza, Weili was taken down on both of Namajunas’ attempts in their last fight and Esparza does have the potential to control this fight on the mat and grind out a grappling-heavy decision win. That’s really the only path to victory we see for her, but if she’s able to pull it off she should score well on DraftKings and could serve as a value play on FanDuel. There’s also the strong potential that she gets finished early in this fight, so her floor is non-existent. The odds imply she has a 24% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Israel Adesanya
14th UFC Fight (12-1)Adesanya has won three straight five-round decisions after losing a five-round decision in the only loss of his MMA career, as he tried to move up a weight class and capture the Light Heavyweight belt against Jan Blachowicz in March 2021. Adesanya remains undefeated at 185 lb, and no one in the weight class has really even looked like much of a test for him. He originally won the Interim Middleweight belt against Kelvin Gastelum in a 2019 decision, and then became the undisputed champion when he knocked out Robert Whittaker in the second round of his next match. He followed that up with a painfully slow paced decision win over Yoel Romero, before knocking out Paulo Costa in the second round. Bored at 185 lb, he then tried to become the double champ when he took on Jan, but came up short in a decision loss. He dropped back down to 185 lb and has since won decisions over Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier.
In his last fight, Adesanya continued to exert his striking dominance as he did a good job of controlling the distance, piecing Cannonier up from the outside, and staying out of danger. The only success Cannonier found in the fight was tying Adesanya up in the clinch along the fence for brief periods of time in the later rounds. Overall it was an uneventful fight and Adesanya cruised to a unanimous decision win, as he outlanded Cannonier 116-90 in significant strikes and 163-141 in total strikes, while stuffing all four of Cannonier’s takedown attempts.
Now 23-1 as a pro, Adesanya has 15 wins by KO and eight decision victories. His only loss came in a 2021 five-round decision against Jan Blachowicz, in an attempt at capturing a second belt up at Light Heavyweight. All 15 of Adesanya’s knockouts have occurred in the first two rounds, with seven coming in round one and eight ending in round two. His last two, and three out of his four UFC knockouts have occurred in the second round. His other nine UFC fights all went the distance, including seven five rounders, and he’s fought to four straight five-round decisions.
This will be Adesanya’s ninth straight title fight and 10th five-round fight since joining the UFC in 2018. Six of those previous eight title fights went the distance, while the other two both ended in second round knockout wins. He also fought to a five-round decision victory against Brad Tavares in 2018, in his one other UFC five-round fight. Prior to joining the UFC, Adesanya had two fights scheduled to go five rounds, but he knocked out both opponents in the first round.
Overall, Adesanya is a calculated counter striker with a celebrated kickboxing career prior to transitioning to MMA. While he’s not a guy that’s ever looking to instigate grappling, he’s great at defending takedowns (78% career defense) and returning to his feet when he does get taken down. Considering he’s one of the best strikers on the planet, his opponents are generally looking to get him to the ground, but they have only been able to land 18 takedowns on 85 attempts against him in his 13 UFC fights. His last two opponents to not attempt a takedown against him were Paulo Costa and Robert Whittaker (in their first fight), and Adesanya knocked out both of those opponents in the second round. The only other opponent not to try and get Adesanya down was Anderson Silva, who Adesanya defeated in a 2019 three-round decision. On the other side of things, Adesanya has only attempted three takedowns in the UFC and those all occurred in his first three fights with the organization. He failed to land any of those attempts. He also only averages 3.93 SSL/min and 2.67 SSA/min, so it’s rare to see huge striking numbers in his matches. After landing 10 knockdowns in his first seven UFC fights, Adesanya has only notched two in his last six matches, but has been facing a series of very durable opponents.
Alex Pereira
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Parlaying a pair of 2016-2017 kickboxing wins with a trio of UFC wins over cherry picked opponents, Pereira is amazingly getting a title shot despite having just seven pro MMA fights to his name. He only made his UFC debut 53 weeks ago and the UFC made sure not to let him face any grapplers as they fast tracked him to a title shot. Pereira amazingly only had one MMA fight in the five and a half years prior to making his UFC debut, which came in a November 2020 violent R1 KO win in the LFA, almost exactly a year before he joined the UFC. Following that fight, he competed in two more kickboxing bouts, winning the Glory Kickboxing Light Heavyweight Belt in a January 2021 split-decision and then losing the title in a rematch via decision in September 2021. Looking further back, he made his pro MMA debut all the way back in 2015 and suffered his only career loss in a third round submission. He then landed a pair of knockouts before returning to kickboxing for four and a half years before finally returning to MMA in his LFA win.
Pereira made his November 2021 UFC debut against a terrible opponent in Andreas Michailidis, who’s now 1-3 in the UFC. Pereira got taken down and controlled for almost the entire first round, but then landed a flying knee KO to start the second round. Pereira then saw the judges for the first time in his short MMA career when he defeated Bruno Silva in a decision. He followed that up with a first round knockout against a braindead Sean Strickland, who refused to even try and grapple against Pereira. Strickland is the only ranked opponent that Pereira has faced in the UFC and any serious grappler would pants Pereira.
In Pereira’s last fight, Strickland reminded the world that he doesn’t just play an idiot on TV, he’s literally a stone cold moron, as he refused to even consider grappling with Pereira. After poking the bear for two and a half minutes, Strickland took a left hook to the jaw from Pereira that knocked him to the mat. Badly hurt, Strickland tried to return to his feet but immediately got dropped again with a right hand to end the fight. The match ended with Pereira ahead 25-15 in striking with no takedowns attempted on either side.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Pereira has five wins by KO and one by decision. Three of those knockouts came in round one, with the other two ending in round two. His only career loss ended in a third round submission in his 2015 pro debut. After competing at 209 lb in his last two kickboxing matches, Pereira dropped back down to 185 lb for his UFC debut, where all of his MMA fights have been.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Pereira’s career, and he’s only even seen the third round twice (1-1), with just one of those making it past the 13 minute mark.
Overall, Pereira is a very dangerous kickboxer, but doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling, although he has been working with Glover Teixeira to try and improve that faucet of his game. In his three UFC fights, he’s been taken down four times on 15 opponent attempts (73.3% defense), while not attempting any takedowns of his own. While his MMA experience is still very limited, he has 40 kickboxing fights to his name (33-7) including knockouts over Israel Adesanya (2017) and Dustin Jacoby (2014), along with another decision win over Adesanya in 2016. Pereira has also been knocked out twice himself in kickboxing matches. He has a dangerous left hook and throws violent kicks and knees to maximize his massive frame. He doesn’t have the best cardio and it should be pointed out that his decision win over Adesanya was not only close/questionable, but those rounds were only three minutes long so it was only a nine minute fight and Pereira was still slowing down in the third round.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4”, but Adesanya will have a 1” reach advantage and is two years younger than the 35-year-old Pereira.
It’s no secret that the only reason this fight is happening is because Pereira defeated Adesanya twice in kickboxing, with one of those ending in a violent knockout, which is the only time Adesanya has ever been finished in MMA or as a kickboxer. The two originally competed under the Glory Kickboxing banner in 2016 and Pereira won a close/questionable decision that many would argue should have gone the other way. At that time Pereira was 29 years old and Adesanya was just 27. They ran it back a year later and Adesanya nearly finished Pereira in the second round as he forced a standing eight count from the referee. That gave Pereira a little time to recover and had it been an MMA fight, Adesanya likely gets a finish there. Early in the third round, Pereira flipped the script as he landed a perfectly placed left hook to turn the lights out on a 28-year-old Adesanya. Despite losing both of those kickboxing matches, Adesanya arguably won the first one and was clearly way ahead in the second before he got caught. He was also pretty young at the time and has clearly improved a good amount since that time.
The UFC is fully aware that Pereira would get manhandled by any decent grappler, and they carefully handpicked his opponents to make sure he wouldn’t get exposed before they could cash a pay day on an Adesanya/Pereira rematch, as there aren’t really any other marketable fights left for Adesanya in the division. This is the UFC’s version of Jerry Springer bringing on a surprise guest to stir up drama, as Adesanya’s fights have been getting progressively more boring as it’s become abundantly clear that no one else is anywhere close to his striking level. While Pereira is an extremely dangerous striker, there’s a reason he spent almost his entire career as a kickboxer. He has no grappling skills, bad cardio, and isn’t built for five-round MMA fights. While Adesanya is extremely unlikely to capitalize on Pereira’s non-existent grappling skills, Pereira’s cardio will be something to keep an eye on the longer this fight goes. While Adesanya generally doesn’t push a super high pace, Pereira has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes, whereas Adesanya has gone 25 minutes in his last four and 7 of his 13 UFC matches. Pereira will be the most dangerous in the first half of this fight, and Adesanya should be able to take over in the back half if the fight makes it that long. Adesanya is the more elusive of the two and has the better striking defense, while Pereira is the one with one punch knockout power. We expect Adesanya to fight smart and remain out of danger early on as he takes Pereira into deeper waters to test both his cardio and resolve.
Adesanya has a history of either winning decisions or knocking opponents out in the second round, and nearly finished Pereira in the second round of their last kickboxing match. Therefore, a second round knockout win for Adesanya makes sense based on past results. However, it’s more likely Adesanya stretches this fight out longer and doesn’t look to rush things early on when Pereira is the most dangerous. Because of that, either a late knockout or a decision win for Adesanya are the more likely outcomes. While Adesanya has fought to four straight five-round decisions, we’re not convinced that Pereira has it in him to go 25 full minutes and we like Adesanya to knock him out in the mid to late rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Adesanya KO” at +470.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Adesanya has averaged 88 DraftKings points in his previous eight wins in five-round UFC fights. In the two of those that ended early, he scored 102 and 106 DraftKings points in a pair of second round knockouts. However, in the six that went the distance he only averaged 82 DraftKings points, failing to top 86 points in five of those. The one time he scored well in a decision was when he landed an insane four knockdowns against Kelvin Gastelum and totaled 117 DraftKings points. He hasn’t attempted a takedown in any of his last 10 fights, only averages 3.93 SSL/min, and after landing an unsustainable 10 knockdowns in his first seven UFC matches, he’s only totaled two in his last six fights. That leaves him reliant on either landing a well timed knockout and/or multiple knockdowns to score well. However, the field has picked up on his scoring struggles and Adesanya was only 33% owned on DraftKings in his last fight, despite closing as a massive -550 favorite. And in his two matches prior to that, he was just 30% and 38% owned. The hype around this matchup combined with his more reasonable price tag could bump his ownership up slightly, but he still projects to be lower owned than your typical five-round favorite. That lower ownership increases his tournament appeal, despite his recent scoring struggles. He should come into this matchup with maximum motivation to put on an impressive performance and the potential for Pereira to gas out also increases Adesanya’s finishing chances. Adesanya is still unlikely to put up a slate-breaking score unless he lands multiple knockdowns and gets a finish in the first two rounds, but don’t be surprised if he lands a mid-round finish and scores better than he has in his last four fights. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Pereira has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins and is coming off a career best 110 point performance in a R1 KO win. Realistically, he needs to knock Adesanya out to win this fight and if that happens it’s harder to see Pereira getting left out of tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag. However, Adesanya does a great job of evading contact and only averages 2.67 SSA/min, so there are ways a mid-round knockout win for Pereira still doesn’t score enough for him to be useful if we see multiple dogs on this slate win and score well. In the bizarro world where Pereira somehow goes 25 minutes and wins a decision over the champ, he could still serve as a value play, but likely wouldn’t put up a really big score based on Adesanya’s elite striking defense and Pereira’s non-existent grappling. Pereira projects to be owned above his chances of finding the finish he needs to win this fight, which lowers our interest in playing him and we expect Adesanya to win this fight. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
We recently partnered with PrizePicks, who offer a new way to play DFS. Instead of competing against other users, you simply pick the over/under on two or more fighters' stat lines (i.e. fight time or fantasy points scored). Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Jackson OVER 83.5 Pts
For the rest of our top PrizePicks plays check out our DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content at: patreon.com/mmadfs.
