The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #13

Carlston Harris

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Harris had been scheduled to face Abubakar Nurmagomedov here, but Nurmagomedov pulled out and Gordon was announced as the replacement just on Wednesday, three days before the fight. Harris had been a -135 favorite in his original matchup, but has now seen his odds soar north of -300.

Thirteen months removed from a R1 KO loss against an unstoppable Shavkat Rakhmonov, Harris has yet to see the second round in the UFC and hasn’t been past the eight minute mark in any of his last seven fights. Prior to his recent loss, he had finished five straight opponents. He made his UFC debut in May 2021 and landed a first round submission against Christian Aguilera, which he followed up with a first round knockout of Impa Kasanganay. He’s won 9 of his last 11 fights and has decision wins over UFC fighters Michel Pereira and Wellington Turman prior to joining the UFC in 2015 and 2016.

Now 17-5 as a pro, Harris has five wins by KO/TKO, five by submission, and seven decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice and has three decision losses.

Overall, Harris tends to employ a smother-grappling heavy approach that utilizes chain wrestling without a ton of striking volume. He’s a threat to end fights on the mat both by submission and ground and pound, and while he’s an unconventional striker, he has sneaky power on the feet.

Jared Gooden

5th UFC Fight (1-3)

After getting cut from the UFC in 2021 following a 1-3 start, Gooden has backdoored his way back into the organization by filling this short notice spot. Gooden fought just three weeks ago, when he landed an early second round TKO win, and has gone 4-1 since being cut. His last four fights have all ended via TKO in the first two rounds, with his lone loss over that stretch coming in a R1 TKO against former UFC fighter Impa Kasanganay. That notably occurred up at 185 lb and Gooden and bounced between 170 lb and 185 lb throughout his career. Since getting released from the UFC, he fought three times at 185 lb (2-1) and twice at 170 lb (2-0). His last fight was at 170 lb, where all of his UFC matches have also been. All three of Gooden’s UFC losses ended in decisions, while his lone win came in a 68 second R1 KO over a suspect Niklas Stolze (Now 0-3 in the UFC), in a fight Gooden excepted on just a few days’ notice, which is obviously pertinent considering he also took this next fight on just a few days’ notice.

Now 22-8 as a pro, Gooden has 11 wins by KO/TKO, six by submission, and five decision wins. He’s been knocked out twice and has six decision losses. Both of his early losses were at 185 lb, and no one has ever finished him at 170 lb. His last five early wins all came by knockout, with four of those ending in the second round.

Overall, Gooden is very hittable and two of his four UFC opponents landed 115 or more significant strikes against him. He leads the slate at 7.59 SSA/min, but is a BJJ brown belt and has done a better job of defending takedowns than punches. In his four UFC fights, he’s only been taken down once on seven opponent attempts (85.7% defense). While he doesn’t shoot for many takedowns himself, he’s landed both of his attempts. Gooden missed weight by 3 lb for his last UFC fight, and considering he’s fought a lot at 185 lb and took this fight on just three days’ notice, he’ll be our top priority to monitor on the scale at weigh-ins.

UPDATE: Gooden missed weight by 6 lb!

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 6’0” but Gooden will have a 1” reach advantage and is six years younger than the 35-year-old Harris.

We typically see short notice replacement fighters struggle and Gooden had very limited time to prepare for this fight. While he was able to catch lightning in a bottle once before on a short notice fight, it would be surprising to see him pull it off again, especially after he just fought three weeks ago. This feels like a spot where Gooden was willing to do whatever was necessary to get back on the UFC roster, even if it meant taking a loss on his way back in. It’s not like he’s a good fighter to begin with and he has a terrible striking defense. He has been fairly durable for the amount of damage he takes, but that’s bound to catch up with him eventually, and cutting a bunch of weight on short notice would be a likely time for that to happen. We like Harris to finish Gooden here, although it’s tough to say if it comes via knockout or submission, as Harris is fully capable of finishing the fight both ways. The fact that Gooden missed weight by 6 lb and is coming is so much larger has the potential to make him tougher to take down, which raises the knockout probability for both guys.

Our favorite bet here is “X” at +Y.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Harris had originally been scheduled to fight Abubakar Nurmagomedov as a -135 favorite when DraftKings originally released pricing. However, then Nurmagomedov dropped out and Gooden stepped in for him on Wednesday, after Harris’ price was already locked in. Harris is now mispriced at just $8,300 as a -320 favorite and if his price was released today he would be $9,300. That will justifiably drive his ownership way up, and he’s a no brainer play in low-risk contests. It gets trickier in tournaments, where you have to weigh his chances of making the optimal lineup with the increased potential for more heavily duplicated winning lineups that include him. Ultimately, he’s in a good spot to succeed and his cheaper price tag gives him a wider range of acceptable scoring outcomes. There’s a good chance he does end up in the winning DraftKings lineup, so we’ll just need to be mindful of how we build lineups that include him to avoid greatly reduced payouts on highly duplicated lines. Both of Harris’ UFC wins have come in the first round and he averaged 102 DraftKings points in those two fights. He also got knocked out in the first round of his last fight, so whoever wins in his matches generally scores well. His grappling-heavy style makes it tougher for him to fail on DraftKings, especially when you combine it with the mispricing. He’ll be more reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel, where he’s appropriately priced and won’t benefit from control time and ground strikes. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.

Gooden has everything seemingly working against him here. He took this fight on three days’ notice, he fought just three weeks ago, he missed weight by six pounds, and he’s already been cut once by the UFC after going 1-3 in his first stint with the organization. None of that bodes well for his outlook here. However, giving us some sliver of hope is that his lone UFC win came in a R1 knockout in a fight he also took on just a few days’ notice. He also has an 85% takedown defense and the additional weight he’s carrying may have the potential to help keep him upright, although that remains to be seen. The only other reason to consider playing him is that he’ll be incredibly low owned, while Harris will be one of the most popular fighters on the slate. That would make Gooden an exceptional leverage play if he does pull off the miracle upset here. Harris has also been knocked out twice in his career and doesn’t look to have the best chin, so we’re definitely keeping Gooden in our player pool. The odds imply Gooden has a 28% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #12

Bruno Silva

6th UFC Fight (2-2, NC)

It’s now been 22 months since we last saw Silva, which was when he knocked out an ultra low-level Victor Rodriguez in just 60 seconds. Just two months prior to that win, Silva landed a second round knockout against another low-level opponent in J.P. Buys. Silva landed an insane three knockdowns against Buys, in addition to taking him down once. While those fights couldn’t have gone much better for Silva, he had a rocky start to his UFC career, as he lost his first three fights with the organization. However, the third round submission loss in his UFC debut was later overturned to a “No Contest” after his opponent, Khalid Taha, failed a drug test. Silva then lost a pair of close decisions to tough opponents in David Dvorak and Tagir Ulanbekov.

Now 12-5-2 as a pro, Silva has five wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and four decisions. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2016), submitted once (R3 2011), and has three decision losses. He also has two split/majority draws on his record, with one of those coming against UFC fighter Casey Kenney. Silva has fought at both 135 lb and 125 lb throughout his career. He made his UFC debut at 135 lb, but then dropped back down to 125 lb, where he’s stayed since.

Overall, Silva is a well-rounded fighter who trains at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo and is a BJJ black belt who loves to throw a ton of heavy leg kicks. In his five UFC fights, Silva has landed 10 takedowns on 32 attempts (31.3% accuracy), while he’s been taken down on 5 of 14 opponent attempts (64.3% defense). While Silva fights aggressively, he only averages 2.98 SSL/min and 3.23 SSA/min and has yet to land more than 47 significant strikes in a fight. It will be interesting to see how much ring rust Silva has to knock off after so long away, but that could result in a slower start for him.

Tyson Nam

7th UFC Fight (3-3)

Nam recently landed a first round knockout win against Ode Osbourne following a 19 month layoff resulting from ACL surgery. Nam’s second most recent fight was all the way back in January 2021, when he lost a split decision to Matt Schnell. Prior to that loss, Nam landed a pair of knockouts against low-level debuting opponents in Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev. Both of those fights took place at 135 lb, while the rest of Nam’s UFC career has been at 125 lb. Prior to taking those two fights at 135 lb, Nam lost his first two UFC matches in a pair of decisions against Kai Kara-France and Sergio Pettis. So all three of Nam’s UFC wins have ended in knockouts in under six minutes, while all three of his losses went the distance.

Now 21-12-1 as a pro, Nam has 13 wins by KO, one by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out in the first round three times, although those all occurred much earlier in his career (2006, 2008 & 2013) and all up at 135 lb. The most recent of those notably came against Marlon Moraes in 2013. Nam’s other nine losses have all gone the distance. Nam has bounced back and forth between 125 lb and 135 lb throughout his career, but prior to his recent R1 KO win, his previous five 125 lb fights had all gone the distance, with him losing four of those. His second most recent early win at 125 lb was all the way back in 2017. He’s just 1-3 in the UFC at 125 lb, but 2-0 at 135 lb.

Overall, Nam is a pure striker, and we’ve yet to see a takedown landed by anyone in any of his six UFC fights. However, only one of his five UFC opponents even attempted a takedown on him, which was another striker in Kai Kara-France who went 0 for 4. Nam also went 0 for 4 on his takedown attempts in that fight, while not attempting any takedowns in his other five UFC matches. Nam doesn’t throw much volume, averaging just 3.68 SSL/min and he’s only finished ahead in striking in one of his six UFC matches. That makes it really tough for him to ever win a decision and looks entirely reliant on landing knockouts to win fights at this level. He’s now 39 years old and not very far removed from ACL surgery. His last fight ended in just three minutes, and we’ve yet to see him defend a takedown on his surgically repaired knee. He has a wider stance that leaves him potentially vulnerable to leg kicks, something his next opponent loves to throw.

Fight Prediction:

Nam will have a 3” height and reach advantage, while Silva is seven years younger than the 39-year-old Nam.

Silva is a well rounded fighter who will have the grappling advantage in this matchup, although we’ve yet to see Nam get taken down in the UFC, albeit on just four attempts, and Silva hasn’t submitted anybody since 2014. Neither fighter has historically landed a ton of striking volume, but we expect Silva to come out aggressively throwing leg kicks. However, if he’s not careful to set them up Nam could counter him with a potentially fight ending right hand. Landing a knockout appears to be Nam’s only real path to victory, and he’s lost all three of the decisions he’s been to in the UFC. While Silva is coming off a pair of knockout wins and Nam has been knocked out three times earlier in his career, we’d be surprised to see Silva knock Nam out here, and Silva’s most likely path to victory may be in a decision. With that said, similar to Nam, all of Silva’s UFC wins have come by knockout and he’s lost both of the decisions he’s been to with the organization. There’s no way of knowing exactly how Silva will look following a 22 month layoff, but if he’s off his game at all, that could give Nam the opening he needs to knock him out. However, if Silva can quickly regain his past form, then we would expect him to win a decision here. Those are the two ways we see this fight ending, with a Silva decision win being the more likely of the two.

Our favorite bet here is “Silva DEC” at +210.

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DFS Implications:

Silva shattered the last two slates he was on with a pair of knockouts that scored 127 and 132 DraftKings points. Just keep in mind, one of those was against one of the worst fighters to ever grace the UFC roster in Victor Rodriguez and the other was against J.P. Buys. Neither one of those two ever came even remotely close to winning a UFC fight, with Rodriguez never making it past the three minute mark in a match and Buys amazingly getting knocked down EIGHT times in three UFC appearances. Prior to the pair of teed up matchups, Silva lost his first three UFC matches and only scored 45 and 39 DraftKings points in his two decision defeats. Now he’s coming off a 22 month layoff and going against an opponent who’s never been submitted, or even taken down in the UFC, and hasn’t been knocked out since 2013. Silva will need to find a lot of grappling success to score well without a finish, and even if he does get Nam out of there early, he’ll still need to outscore most of the other high priced options. The odds imply Silva has a 65% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.

Nam has been a KO or bust play throughout his UFC career, with all three of his UFC wins ending in knockouts and all three of his losses going the distance. All of those knockouts came in under six minutes and at his cheap price tag it’s hard to see him finding another finish and not cracking the winning lineup. However, he only scored 23, 22, and 18 DraftKings points in his three decision losses and even at his cheap price tag, a decision win is still unlikely to score enough for him to be useful. Silva has been knocked out in the first round once before and is now coming off a 22 month layoff, so it’s certainly possible Nam can land something clean and put him out. The odds imply Nam has a 35% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

JJ Aldrich

12th UFC Fight (7-4)

Looking to bounce back from a second round submission loss to Erin Blanchfield, Aldrich was impressively able to stuff all four of Blanchfield’s takedown attempts, but got caught with a standing guillotine midway through round two that ended the fight. Prior to that loss, won three straight decisions over Cortney Casey, Vanessa Demopoulos, and Gillian Robertson, after losing a 2020 split decision to Sabina Mazo. Aldrich also has a win over Polyana Viana on her record and overall has fared quite well against grapplers.

Now 11-5 as a pro, Aldrich has two wins by R1 KO/TKO (2015 & 2016) and nine decision wins. She’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision defeats. Her first submission loss occurred in her second pro fight, while her two knockout wins also came very early in her career. After three of her first four career fights ended early, Aldrich has gone the distance in 10 of her last 12 fights, and other than the submission loss to Blanchfield her only other UFC fight to end early was a 2019 R2 TKO loss to Maycee Barber in Aldrich’s first fight at 125 lb, after she moved up from 115 lb, where she started her career.

Overall, Aldrich has decent boxing and has started mixing in more takedowns recently. After she landed just one takedown on two attempts in her first three 125 lb UFC fights, she landed 8 on 21 attempts in her last four fights, with at least one takedown in each of those matches and six or more attempts in three of them. She has a really solid 75% career takedown defense, and four of the seven times she’s been taken down came in her 2016 UFC debut. Since then, she’s only been taken down 3 times on 23 attempts (87% defense) in her last 10 fights. And if we just look at her seven fights at 125 lb, she’s only been taken down twice on 17 attempts (88.2% defense) and only once in her last five matches on 16 attempts (93.8%). Not only was she able to stuff all four of Blanchfield’s takedown attempts, Aldrich actually took Blanchfield down twice on six attempts. Aldrich trains at elevation with Miranda Maverick in Colorado, which should help her cardio later in fights.

Ariane Lipski

9th UFC Fight (3-5)

Coming off a 65 second R1 TKO loss to Priscila Cachoeira, Lipski has been finished in the first two rounds in three of her last four fights, with her only win over that stretch coming against a helpless Mandy Bohm in a September 2021 decision. Prior to that decision win, Lipski got finished with ground and pound in the second round of consecutive fights against Antonina Shevchenko and Montana De La Rosa. The Lipski/Cachoeira fight was originally scheduled to take place at 125 lb, but Lipski missed weight by 2.5 lb and then wasn’t medically cleared. It was bumped back a week and moved up to 135 lb, but now she’ll move back down to 125 lb where the rest of her pro fights have been. After going the distance in her first three UFC fights (1-2), four of Lipski’s last five fights have ended early (1-3).

Now 14-8 as a pro, Lipski has six wins by KO, three by submission, and five decisions. While 9 of her 14 career wins have come early, Lipski only has one finish since 2017 and three of her last four wins went the distance. She has four TKO losses and four decision defeats. All four of her early losses have ended in the first two rounds, with three of those coming in her last four matches.

Overall, Lipski is a decent striker with some level of submission skills, but has terrible defensive wrestling. She claims she’s been working on her wrestling since switching camps to American Top Team following her loss to Shevchenko, but we’ve yet to see that translate to the Octagon. She’s a BJJ purple belt and her last three early wins all ended in first round submissions, although she only has one finish since 2017. In her eight UFC fights, Lipski has only landed one takedown on five attempts (20% accuracy). That lone takedown occurred in her 2019 UFC debut and she’s failed to land any in her last seven fights. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down on 8 of 18 opponent attempts (55.6% defense). The only fighter who’s tried and failed to land a takedown against her was Mandy Bohm.

Fight Prediction:

Lipski will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters have a 67” reach.

These two had originally been scheduled to fight in March 2022, but Lipski ended up withdrawing due to a shoulder injury. Either way, they had some extra time to prepare for one another. Lipski is a fairly aggressive striker, but her terrible defensive wrestling has been a real problem for her and she basically gives up midway through fights after taking damage on her back. While Aldrich is one of the last people we would ever expect a finish from, she has been looking for more takedowns lately, and if she can put Lipski on her back and begin raining down ground and pound, there’s a decent chance the ref will be forced to stop the fight. With that said, it’s rare to see Aldrich’s fights end early and her last eight wins have all come by decision. Regardless of whether or not she finds a ground and pound finish, we fully expect her to easily win this fight through a combination of striking and wrestling. While this is probably the best spot she’s ever been in to land a finish, we’ll still say she wins by decision, because in the end, this is JJ Aldrich we’re talking about.

Our favorite bet here is “Aldrich DEC” at -110.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Aldrich has never been one to score well in DFS, averaging 71 DraftKings points in her seven UFC wins, which all ended in decisions. She’s only topped 69 points twice, and she’s never scored more than 86 DraftLKings points. When you combine her scoring struggles with her sky-high price tag, it’s understandable why she projects to be the lowest owned favorite on the slate by a wide margin. However, now she gets an incredibly favorable matchup against an opponent who’s been finished via ground and pound in three of her last four fights. Aldrich doesn’t need explosive power or any sort of submission game to take Lipski down, control her, and land ground and pound until Lipski covers up and the ref is forced to stop the fight. We’re not saying that definitely will happen, as Aldrich has been painfully patient with her offense throughout her career, but it’s a very real scenario. We just saw Aldrich take Erin Blanchfield down twice on six attempts in a round and a half, what do you think she’s going to do to Ariane Lipski? Aldrich has a solid floor and theoretical tournament winning upside if she really leans into this matchup, but obviously it’s hard to trust a fighter like her to fully capitalize on any matchup. Luckily, she’ll be so low owned that we don’t have to mortgage the farm to leverage the field here. The odds imply she has a 74% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Lipski has been a boom or bust fighter who has averaged 99 DraftKings points in her three UFC wins, despite two of those going the distance, but has been finished in her last three losses. Two of her three wins came against ultra low-level opponents, while the other ended in a quick and awkward kneebar. While Lipski has decent striking, she has terrible defensive wrestling, a questionable chin, and wilts under pressure. Now she’s facing a much more skilled opponent who should be able to easily take Lipski down and control her on the mat. That will make it really hard for Lipski to rack up striking volume or score well without a finish. We fully expect Aldrich to dominate Lipski in this fight, so we don’t have much of any interest in playing Lipski. With that said, both fighters will be low owned and if Lipski can land a surprise finish then she would almost certainly end up in winning tournament lineups at her cheap price tag. That’s really the only argument we can see for playing her. The odds imply she has a 26% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Victor Henry

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to a 40-year-old Raphael Assuncao, Henry continues to defy the odds as he has now won as a +425 underdog and lost as a -400 favorite in his two UFC fights. He set a crazy pace in his UFC debut against Raoni Barcelos, as he outlanded Barcelos 181-134 in significant strikes and 222-134 in total strikes, while stuffing all but one of Barcelos’ seven takedown attempts on his way to winning a unanimous 30-27 decision. However, after that incredibly impressive performance, Henry came back down to earth in his last fight when he lost a unanimous 30-27 decision against a struggling Raphael Assuncao, who came in on a four fight losing streak. Henry got taken down twice on five attempts by Assuncao, while getting outlanded 60-55 in significant strikes and 78-61 in total strikes. While Henry is just 2-2 in his last four outings, he has won 10 of his last 12 fights, with his last four wins prior to joining the UFC all coming early. However, only one of his last 16 fights ended in the first round, and 10 of those 16 matches went the distance.

Now 22-6 as a pro, Henry has six wins by KO/TKO, eight submissions, and eight decision victories. He’s never been finished in his 13 year career, with all six of his losses going the distance. His last three finishes have all come in the later rounds, with two of those ending in submissions.

Overall, Henry has fought all over the world since turning pro in 2010. While the majority of his time has been spent in California and Japan, he also has fought in Russia and Dubai. He’s decently well rounded with his grappling and striking and is a former catch wrestling champion. He tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on opposed to landing huge finishing shots early on and 8 of his last 11 fights have seen a third round, with six of those going the distance. He landed an insane number of strikes in his UFC debut, but that’s not something we’ve seen from in most of his other recent fights. In his two UFC fights, Henry has been taken down three times on 12 opponent attempts (75% defense), while he failed to land either of his own two attempts.

Tony Gravely

8th UFC Fight (4-3)

Looking to bounce back from a decision loss against a really tough Javid Basharat, Gravely struggled to execute his standard wrestling-eavy game plan in that fight as he only landed 2 of his 13 takedown attempts and went 0 for 9 on his attempts in the later rounds. Basharat easily outstruck Gravely on the feet, finishing ahead 80-33 in significant strikes and 106-39 in total strikes, while also taking Gravely down twice on four attempts. Gravely was clearly tiring late in the fight, which continues to be a concern for him. Prior to that loss, Gravely landed his only first round finish in his last 10 fights when he knocked out Johnny Munoz Jr. 68 seconds into the first round. Just before that, Gravely landed a career best 11 takedowns in a decision win over a terrible Saimon Oliveira. That came just after Gravely suffered the only knockout loss of his career, which came in the second round of a 2021 fight against Nate Maness. Gravely nearly knocked Maness out at the end of round one, but Maness was saved by the bell. Gravely other two UFC wins also came against a lower level of competition as he won a split decision over Geraldo de Freitas Jr., who finished 1-2 in the UFC, and knocked out Anthony Birchak, who went 2-4 with all four losses coming early.

Now 23-8 as a pro, Gravely has 10 wins by KO, three by submission, and 10 decisions. While three of his last six fights have gone the distance, 12 of his last 15 matches have ended early. However, 9 of his last 10 fights have seen the second round. He’s been finished in six of his eight pro losses, with one TKO (R2 2021) and five submissions.

Overall, Gravely has a celebrated wrestling background in both high school and college, and has trained with the Virginia Tech wrestling team in the past. He’s more of a threat to land finishes through ground and pound than submissions, but does claim to constantly be working on his jiu jitsu. Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed 33 takedowns on 69 attempts (47.8% accuracy), while his opponents have taken him down 11 times on 23 attempts (52.2% defense). He also has solid power in his hands, although we’ve seen him get in trouble when he falls in love with his striking. Gravely has struggled against opponents with good defensive wrestling. His three UFC losses were against Javid Basharat (85% takedown defense), Nate Maness (75% takedown defense), and Brett Johns (Only a 58% takedown defense but a really solid wrestler). Before he joined the UFC, Gravely also lost to other grapplers in Manny Bermudez, Merab Dvalishvili, and Pat Sabatini.

Fight Prediction:

Henry will have a 2” height advantage, but Gravely will have a 1” reach advantage. Gravely is also four years younger than the 35-year-old Henry.

It’s easy to see that Gravely excels when he finds wrestling success but struggles when he goes against opponents who can neutralize his wrestling. The tougher question to answer is whether or not Henry has good enough defensive wrestling to shut down Gravely’s attacks. We did see Henry successfully defend six of Raoni Barcelos’ seven takedown attempts in his debut, but Barcelos also wasn’t really committing to his attempts in that match and fatigued down the stretch. We expect Gravely to make a more concerted effort to get his fight to the mat and a 40-year-old Raphael Assuncao was recently able to take Henry down twice. However, Henry clearly has the better cardio and we fully expect him to win the third round. Henry has also been extremely durable and has never been finished in 28 pro fights. That leaves Gravely with a narrow path to victory, as he’ll likely need to win both of the first two rounds and then survive the third round to win a close 29-28 decision. Conversely, if Henry can win either of the first two rounds, we like his chances of also winning the third round and going on to win a decision. It’s also possible that Henry locks up a submission in the later rounds as Gravely begins to fatigue. That leaves Henry with a lot more ways of winning this fight. He’s also a former catch wrestling champion, and while we haven’t seen much of his grappling yet at the UFC level, he does have a solid 75% takedown defense after two fights with the organization. We expect Henry to outland Gravely on the feet and defend enough of his takedown attempts that Gravely slows down in the back half of the fight, allowing Henry to win a potentially close decision.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -146.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Henry has gone the distance in both of his UFC fights, with polar opposition outcomes. He made his debut as a +425 underdog against a really tough Raoni Barcelos and landed an insane 181 significant strikes as he cruised to a unanimous 30-27 decision win and scored 114 DraftKings points. Then Henry checked in as a -400 favorite against a struggling 40-year-old Raphael Assuncao, who had lost four straight fights, and Henry proceeded to lose a unanimous 30-27 decision and only scored 23 DraftKings points. So he’s got this weird Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde complex going on and you never really know what to expect from Henry. In fairness to him, Assuncao has made a career out of slowing fights down and making things ugly. However, Henry will now be defending a plethora of takedowns in this next match, which will make it hard for him to land the volume he needs to score well without a finish. Working in his favor, Gravely has been finished in six of his eight career losses and 14 of Henry’s 22 career wins have come early. However, it’s rare to see Henry’s fights end in the first round and 15 of his last 16 matches have made it to round two, with 10 of those going the distance. That creates the possibility for Gravely to control Henry on the mat early on, making it tougher for Henry to score especially well with a late round finish. Ultimately, we’re not especially excited about playing Henry here and he’ll need a well timed finish to return value. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

Gravely is coming off a decision loss, but has been a DFS gold mine when he wins, averaging 120 DraftKings points in his four UFC victories. He landed a combined 22 takedowns in the first three of those victories, before landing a 68 second R1 KO in the most recent. Just keep in mind, the field is fully aware of his scoring potential and he’s consistently popular. Gravely has scored 102 or more DraftKings points in all four of his UFC wins and even though he lost his last fight, we expect him to be popular once again at his cheap price tag. However, the keys to his success have been his wrestling and finishing ability. Now he’s going against a former catch wrestling champion with a 75% takedown defense who’s never been finished. While that doesn’t mean Gravely can’t find success landing takedowns, this does look like another tougher matchup for him. That makes it tougher to get excited about playing him if he’s highly owned, but his cheap price tag and high historical ceiling also make him a scary fade. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Mario Bautista

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Bautista has now won three straight fights after getting knocked out early in the second round of a 2021 match against Trevin Jones. Bautista bounced back from the first KO loss of his career with a dominant win over a short notice replacement in Jay Perrin, who was making his UFC debut. Bautista then submitted the highly submittable Brian Kelleher (8th career submission loss) midway through the first round in his next fight. Most recently, Bautista landed another first round submission, this time against a part-time fighter and full-time realtor in Benito Lopez, who hadn’t fought in over three years. The UFC continues to build Bautista up, as now he’ll face the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti, who also just so happens to have four submission losses on his record. Prior to his loss to Trevin Jones, Bautista handed Miles Johns the only KO loss of his career, in what was Bautista’s first early win in the UFC. Bautista originally made his debut in 2019 and got submitted by Cory Sandhagen in the first round, before bouncing back with a high-volume decision win leading up to the Johns fight.

Now 11-2 as a pro, Bautista has three wins by TKO, five by submission, and three decisions. All eight of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with four in round one and four in round two. Both of his losses have also come early, with a 2021 R2 TKO against Trevin Jones and a 2019 R1 submission loss to Cory Sandhagen in Bautista’s UFC debut. Seven of his last 10 fights have seen a second round, with four of those matches ending in round two (3-1), and three going the distance (3-0). Five of his seven UFC fights have ended in under seven minutes (3-2), with the other two going the distance.

Overall, Bautista has shown drastically improved grappling in his last few fights after looking primarily like a striker earlier in his UFC career. He does a good job of using all his weapons as he mixes in punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. We hadn’t seen him mix in much grappling in his first four UFC fights, as he had only landed one takedown on three attempts, but he’s landed seven takedowns on nine attempts in his last three matches and has now landed 8 takedowns on 12 attempts (66.7% accuracy) in his seven UFC fights. He’s also been taken down 5 times on 15 attempts by his opponents (66.7% defense). He also lands a good amount of striking volume, as he averages 5.61 SSL/min and 3.92 SSA/min. Leading up to his last fight, Bautista said he was fighting out the final fight on his contract and needed to get a finish and make a statement in the fight. He did exactly that and will now be fighting in the first fight of his new contract.

Guido Cannetti

10th UFC Fight (4-5)

Cannetti recently landed his first submission win since 2013 when he locked up a rear-naked choke against a fraudulent Randy Costa 64 seconds into the first round. That’s the second straight first round finish the 43-year-old Cannetti has landed, after he landed a first round TKO in a questionable stoppage against Kris Moutinho. Prior to the pair of quick first round finishes, Cannetti hadn’t gotten anyone out of there early since 2013 and had lost his previous three fights. That losing streak began with a 2018 second round submission loss to Marlon Vera, before he got knocked out in round one by Batgerel Danaa. Cannetti then lost a split decision to a debuting Mana Martinez. Cannetti came out strong in that decision loss and won the first round as he fired off numerous heavy kicks as he generally likes to. However, Cannetti began to slow down after round one and Martinez outlanded him over the final 10 minutes to win a split decision.

Now 10-6 as a pro, Cannetti has four wins by KO, four by submission, and two decision victories. All eight of his finishes occurred in the first round. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2020), submitted four times, and has one decision defeat. His four submission losses were split evenly across the first two rounds, with three coming by rear-naked choke and one ending in a triangle choke. All seven of his pre-UFC fights notably ended in the first round (6-1).

Overall, Cannetti has a Muay Thai background and throws heavy kicks, but averages just 3.58 SSL/min and is generally just looking to land big leg kicks or looping punches in the first round before he tires out. He’ll also mix in occasional takedowns, but has only landed one in his last four fights. Looking at his entire nine fight UFC career, he’s landed 10 takedowns on 19 attempts (52.6% accuracy), but half of those came in his first two UFC matches. While he’s only been taken down on 8 of 27 opponent attempts (70.4% defense), that number is heavily skewed by Huga Viana going 1 for 15 on his attempts in a 2015 decision. In Cannetti’s other eight UFC matches, he’s been taken down 7 times on 12 attempts (41.7% defense). Every opponent that has ever tried to take him down has landed at least one of their attempts and his last three opponents to shoot for a takedown have all landed two of their attempts. So his takedown defense is nothing to be afraid of. Prior to his last fight, Cannetti sounded like he might retire after 1-2 more matches, which leaves the potential for this to be his final fight, although we haven’t heard any official word.

Fight Prediction:

Bautista will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also 14 years younger than the 43-year-old Cannetti.

The UFC continues to feed Bautista easy matchups, perhaps to make up for the fact that they paired him up against Cory Sandhagen in his debut. Bautista should have no problem making short work of the aging Cannetti, but it will be interesting to see if Bautista waits for Cannetti to start slowing down or not before pushing for the finish. Cannetti has only ever been really dangerous in round one, and if Bautista simply bides his time, it will eliminate the already small risk that Cannetti poses. With that said, he’s more than capable of neutralizing Cannetti simply by taking him down early and working towards a submission, or landing one of the flying knees he’s known for. Either way, we like Bautista to easily find a finish in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Bautista R2” at +470.

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DFS Implications:

Bautista has now set career scoring highs in three straight fights, after failing to top 93 DraftKings points in his first two UFC wins. His last three wins have returned DraftKings totals of 118, 105, and 104 and his newfound emphasis on his grappling has allowed him to score well on DraftKings regardless of whether or not he finds a finish. With that said, his last two victories both ended in round one, with his most recent ending just six seconds before the round ended. Timing for a finish doesn’t get any better than that, and Bautista is probably due for some regression in that regard, with a poorly timed finish (early round two) coming in the near future. While Bautista’s last two early wins both ended in the first round, his three before that all came in the second round. Bautista’s combination of striking, grappling, and finishing ability, gives him a really solid scoring floor and ceiling, especially when faced with another low-level opponent with a history of early losses. However, Bautista’s recent success will drive his ownership way up and he was already incredibly popular in his last fight (46% owned on DraftKings). As the most expensive fighter on the slate, he’ll need to either put up another huge score in a well timed first round finish or have everyone else around him fail in order to end up in tournament winning lineups. While we won’t be that surprised if he ultimately gets priced out of winning tournament lineups, he has the best chance of any fighter on the slate to land a finish and it’s not even remotely close. Lock him into low-risk lineups. The odds imply he has an 87% chance to win, a 70% chance to land a finish, and a 42% chance it comes in round one.

Cannetti is coming off a pair of first round finishes after doing absolutely nothing for the first seven years of his career. Prior to the two early wins, he hadn’t finished anybody since 2013, before he joined the UFC. Now 43 years old, Cannetti is close to retiring but was able to capitalize against two struggling opponents in Randy Costa and Kris Moutinho, who are both no longer in the UFC. Both of those wins were extremely fortunate and we don’t expect much of the field to chase those results. Cannetti will now face a stud in Bautista, who should make short work of the aging veteran. The only reason to consider having any exposure to Cannetti is that he’ll be very low owned and if he somehow pulls off the biggest upset on the card, he’ll be a massive leverage play against the incredibly popular Bautista. However, it will likely require some sort of freak injury for Cannetti to win this fight, and we still don’t have much interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 13% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Sedriques Dumas

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Dumas had been scheduled to face Abu Azaitar here, but Azaitar dropped out and Fremd was announced as the replacement 16 days out.

Making his UFC debut following a 47 second first round submission win on DWCS, Dumas comes into the UFC with an undefeated record, but also only turned pro in September 2020 and hasn’t been facing much in terms of competition. His last win came against a young one-dimensional striker, after he previously won a decision over an opponent who had spent most of his career at 170 lb, is now 1-4 at 185 lb, and has losses to Cameron VanCamp and Jared Gooden on his record. Prior to that decision win, Dumas had never been past the second round.

Now 7-0 as a pro, Dumas has four wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and one decision win. Four of his finishes occurred in the first round, with the last three of those ending in 90 seconds or less. His other two early wins both ended in round two. Just keep in mind, he’s fought a very low level of competition, with his first three opponents all having losing records and his next two each coming in just 1-0 in their respective careers. Then he took on a struggling undersized opponent, leading up to his win on DWCS. While he locked up a submission win on DWCS, four of his last five finishes have come by KO/TKO.

Overall, Dumas has a Dutch Kickboxing striking style, and is also a BJJ purple belt who looks to mix in grappling. He has dangerous kicks that he uses to attack his opponents at all levels, and has both head kick and leg kick KO/TKOs on his record. He’s also shown the ability to control an opponent on the mat for three rounds, so he seems decently well rounded. Because Dumas has yet to face any UFC caliber opponents, it’s hard to gauge how he’ll hold up at the next level. He’s looked decent, but he hasn’t blown us away with anything he's done. From what we can tell, it doesn’t look like he’s doing much training with any UFC level fighters, but he is still young at just 27 years old.

Josh Fremd

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Still in search of his first UFC win, Fremd nearly got his head ripped off as he got choked unconscious early in the second round of his last fight against Treasean Gore. Prior to that, Fremd got smothered on the mat for three rounds in a decision loss in his debut against Anthony Hernandez, and so far Fremd has been dominated in the grappling exchanges in both of his UFC fights. He also got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues in the first round of a 2021 LFA fight and is now just 2-3 in his last five fights.

Now 9-4 as a pro, Fremd has four wins by KO, three submissions, and two decision victories. All seven of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with three first round knockouts, another in round two, and three second round submission wins. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has two decision losses. Both of his early losses ended in under six minutes.

Overall, Fremd is an aggressive fighter who likes to push forward and force the action. He trains at elevation with several other UFC fighters at Factory X in Colorado. Fremd is a somewhat dangerous striker with good size for the division and he likes to throw violent flying knees, but his grappling has looked terrible so far in the UFC. His aggressive fighting style has gotten him into trouble at times in the past and he’s been prone to getting dropped on the regional scene, although he has spent most of his Octagon time getting taken down and controlled. In his two UFC fights, he’s been taken down 11 times on 15 opponent attempts (26.7% defense), while only landing one of his own takedowns on just two attempts (50% accuracy). He got controlled for 10 minutes and 45 seconds in a decision loss in his UFC debut and then controlled for 2 minutes and 46 seconds in his recent submission loss that didn’t even make it to the six minute mark and he’s been controlled for 65% of the time in those two fights. Now he’ll face an opponent who has shown the ability to both knock opponents out on the feet and control them and look for submissions on the mat.

Fight Prediction:

Fremd will have a 2” height advantage, but Dumas will have a 3” reach advantage.

There are a lot of question marks surrounding Dumas based on the level of competition he’s been facing, but in fairness, Fremd has yet to prove he’s a UFC caliber fighter. Fremd is an offensively minded fighter who’s shown a dubious chin and terrible defensive wrestling. Dumas has shown the ability to take opponents down and control them, at least on the regional scene, and it would make sense for him to take that approach here. It will be interesting to see if Fremd comes in a little more cautiously after dropping his first two UFC fights and getting choked unconscious in his last match. If that happens, this could turn into a slower paced kickboxing match for as long as it remains standing, but Fremd has historically looked to push the pace. Just keep in mind, he stepped into this fight on just 16 days’ notice, so he didn’t have much time to prepare. He also took his UFC debut on short notice, and we saw him slow down as that fight went on, with his striking numbers dropping in each round. Fremd’s aggressive fighting style and poor defense always make finishes more likely, but we like Dumas to control him on the mat and win a decision here.

Our favorite bet here is “Dumas DEC” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Dumas has shown the ability to finish low-level opponents on the regional scene, but hasn’t blown us away with anything he does and will likely be in for some real growing pains in the near future as he starts facing tougher competition. With that said, Fremd hasn’t looked like much of a UFC-level talent and also stepped into this fight on shorter notice. While his background is in kickboxing, Dumas has shown the ability to take opponents down and control them and Fremd has been dominated on the mat in both of his UFC fights. The potential for Dumas to win this fight on mat gives him a path to scoring decently on DraftKings even without a finish, whereas he’ll need to end this fight early to score well on FanDuel. However, with Dumas making his debut and Fremd coming off two losses, it wouldn’t be that surprising if one or both of them approached the match a little more cautiously. That increases the potential for the fight to bust, although it’s definitely a volatile spot with a wide range of outcomes. The odds imply Dumas has a 64% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.

Fremd has looked terrible in both of his UFC fights as he got dominated on the mat in both matches. Now Fremd stepped into this fight on just 16 days notice and it’s hard to feel very confident in him, even if he is going against a largely unproven opponent making his UFC debut. Working in Fremd’s favor when it comes to DFS production, he’s an offensively minded fighter who’s landed finishes in seven of his nine pro wins. However, Fremd is primarily a striker and his grappling has looked terrible. He has the potential to get controlled for periods of time in this fight, and he’s not going to score well without a finish. He’s only finished one of his last five opponents and we’re not very confident he gets it done here. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Davey Grant

11th UFC Fight (5-5)

After losing a pair of 2021 decisions against really tough opponents in Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez, Grant bounced back with a third round knockout victory over Louis Smolka in his last match. Grant dropped Smolka in the first round, while landing 45 significant strikes in the round, but Smolka survived and then nearly locked in an armbar late in round two. However, Grant dropped Smolka to the mat with a leg kick in round three, before finishing him with ground and pound. Gran’t last three wins have all come by late round knockout, with his previous two ending in the second round of a 2021 fight against Jonathan Martinez and the third round of a 2020 match against Martin Day. He’s notably the only fighter to ever finish Martinez and only the second fighter to finish Smolka. Just before his win over Smolka, Grant went toe-to-toe for three rounds against Adrian Yanez. The fight ended in a split decision with Yanez narrowly ahead in striking 100-98. Grant originally joined the UFC in 2013, but had only fought three times in his first five years with the organization as he dealt with numerous injuries and multiple long layoffs.

Now 14-6 as a pro, Grant has four wins by KO, eight by submission, and two decisions. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been submitted four times and has two decision losses. His first three UFC losses all ended in submissions, although he now hasn’t been submitted since 2018. Nine of Grant’s 10 UFC fights have made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a 2018 59 second R1 submission loss to Manny Bermudez. Two of his UFC fights have ended in round two (1-1), three ended in round three (2-1), and four have gone the distance. Two of his last three decisions have been split (1-1).

Overall, Grant is a 37-year-old English striker, who’s lack of activity early in his UFC career seems to have prolonged his shelf life. He throws big looping hooks from odd angles, while mixing it up with a variety of kicks and sporadic takedown attempts. He’s got good power for the division and a solid chin that allows him to keep his hands low, making it tougher to see his punches coming. In his 10 UFC fights, Grant has landed 12 takedowns on 28 attempts (42.9% accuracy), but he’s only landed one takedown in his last four matches combined. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down by his opponents eight times on 23 attempts (65.2% defense). Only one of his last seven opponents has taken him down (Marlon Vera), although four of those opponents never attempted a takedown.

Raphael Assuncao

19th UFC Fight (12-6)

Coming off his first win in his last five fights, the 40-year-old Assuncao pulled off a major upset as a +300 dog in a decision victory over Victor Henry. Assuncao was able to take Henry down twice on five attempts and control him for four and a half minutes, while narrowly finishing ahead in strikes. Prior to that, Assuncao lost four straight, with three of those losses ending in the first two rounds. He got knocked out in the second round by Ricky Simon, who has never knocked anybody else out in the UFC and is known for his grappling. Just before that, he got knocked out by Cody Garbrandt, who only has two wins since 2016, and hasn’t knocked anybody else out in the last seven years. That came just after Assuncao lost a decision to Cory Sandhagen and got submitted in the first round by Marlon Moraes, who has been finished himself in six of his seven fights since that win. Assuncao turned pro all the way back in 2004, and is approaching his 20 year anniversary.

Now 28-9 as a pro, Assuncao has four wins by KO, 10 submissions, and 14 decision victories. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has four decision defeats. Eleven of his 18 UFC fights have gone the distance (9-2), while he’s been knocked out three times and submitted once in his other four losses with the organization, while he also has two knockout wins (2012 R2 & 2017 R3) and one one by submission (2013 R2) in the UFC. That 2017 third round knockout is his only finish in the last decade and it came against an opponent in Matthew Lopez who went 2-4 in the UFC with three early losses. Assuncao got knocked out in the first round of his 2011 UFC debut up at 145 lb, but then dropped down to 135 lb after that fight and has since gone 11-6 at the lighter weight class.

Overall, Assuncao is a BJJ black belt and a slow paced counter puncher. It’s rare to see much action in his fights as he averages just 3.24 SSL/min and 2.41 SSA/min. In his last 10 UFC fights, six of which went the distance, Assuncao failed to land more than 60 significant strikes in a single match and hasn’t absorbed more than 64. He has a solid 78% takedown defense, and has only been taken down four times in his last 10 fights, and the only fighter to get him down in his last six fights was Ricky Simon. While Henry wasn’t able to land any big shots in that last fight, it looked like Assuncao’s chin was starting to go in his previous two matches, both of which ended in KO losses. Despite Assuncao having 10 submission wins, he only has one official submission attempt in his last 11 fights (2019) and hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013.

Fight Prediction:

Grant will have a 3” height and reach advantage and is also three years younger than the 40-year-old Assuncao.

Assuncao does a good job of slowing fights down and making them ugly with a combination of counter punching and grappling. Meanwhile, Grant likes to push a high striking pace and is generally in more exciting matches. So obviously something will have to give here, and as the old adage goes it takes two to tango. Look for Grant to push forward throwing big punches, while Assuncao circles the outside of the Octagon and tries to slow things down. Assuncao should be looking to take Grant down, which will mean Grant will need to be careful not to run straight into one of those attempts. If Grant can land anything clean, he has a good shot of knocking Assuncao out, but otherwise this will likely end in a close, lower-volume decision that hinges on the grappling of Assuncao versus the striking of Grant. The oddsmakers expect it to go the distance, which is very possible, but we’ll say Grant knocks him out.

Our favorite bet here is “Grant KO” at +270.

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DFS Implications:

Grant has averaged 94 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with at least 89 points in all of those. His two decision wins were good for 89 and 92 points, while his three knockout victories returned totals of 89, 99, 101. So he’s been a very consistent, but unexceptional DFS scorer. It’s worth noting that his last three wins all ended in knockouts, but those all occurred in the later rounds so failed to return huge scores. Now he’ll face a very slow paced counter puncher who does a masterful job of ruining fights for DFS and should be looking to take Grant down. That’s obviously concerning for Grant’s outlook and will make it much tougher for him to return value in a decision or even a late round knockout. That leaves Grant reliant on knocking Assuncao out early to score well, which is certainly possible as Assuncao has been knocked out in each of his last two losses. With the help of two takedowns and four minutes of control time, Ricky Simon was able to score 106 DraftKings points and 110 points on FanDuel in a second round KO win over Assuncao, while Cody Garbrandt only scored 88 DraftKings points and 98 points on FanDuel, also in a second round knockout. Grant’s less likely to take Assuncao down, but lands more volume than Garbrandt, however, that gives you a general idea for Grant’s scoring range with a second round finish here. The odds imply Grant has a 56% chance to win, a 29Y% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Assuncao has never been one to score well in DFS, as he offers anemic striking numbers and has just one early win in the last decade, which was all the way back in 2017. And even that came in the third round and scored just 74 DraftKings points. Assuncao’s recent decision win over Victor Henry scored just 76 DraftKings points, with his previous two decision victories scoring 78, 47, and 46 points. Even at his cheap price tag, we don’t see him returning value here without a finish in the first two rounds, which is very unlikely. We don’t have any interest in playing Assuncao, regardless of his lower price and ownership. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Karl Williams

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut following a decision win on DWCS, Williams impressively moved up to Heavyweight on less than a week’s notice and dominated a former Penn St. D-1 All-American Heavyweight wrestler on the mat for three rounds, landing all three of his takedown attempts with almost 11 minutes of control time. Williams was 30 lb lighter than his opponent in that match as he checked in at 233 lb. After the fight, they asked Williams if he wanted to stay at Heavyweight or drop back down, and he said he could do either but would rather move back down. Despite what he said then, he’ll be making his debut at Heavyweight.

Now 7-1 as a pro, Williams has three wins by KO/TKO and four decision wins. His only career loss came in a 2021 R1 submission in his fourth pro fight. All three of his KO/TKO wins also occurred in round one, with two of those occurring in his first three pro matches. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance. Williams made his pro debut at Heavyweight before dropping down to Light Heavyweight for his second fight. He remained at Light Heavyweight until his recent short notice DWCS appearance, but will now stay at the heavier weight class for his UFC debut. He did miss weight trying to make Light Heavyweight in his third most recent match, and seems like sort of a tweener

Overall, Williams is still pretty new to MMA, and only turned pro two years ago. He fought four times in 2021 and four more in 2022 and his last three fights all took place over a 4 month stretch in the Summer of 2022. However, he seems to be catching on fast. He largely relies on his dominant wrestling to win fights, but he does have some power in his strikes and throws a dangerous lead left hook. However, it’s rare to see him put up big striking totals. His cardio has looked good, especially when he’s not on short notice, and he has the ability to wrestle for three hard rounds. He’s already 33 years old as he makes his UFC debut, so he doesn’t have a ton of time to waste acclimating to tougher competition and will need to hit the ground running.

Lukasz Brzeski

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Brzeski is still in search of his first UFC win after he got robbed in a split decision in his UFC debut. Brzeski finished ahead in significant strikes 118-66 and in total strikes 124-66, while no other stats were accrued in the find other than six seconds of control time. Despite finishing well ahead in striking in all three rounds, two of the three judges mysteriously scored the fight for Martin Buday in a real head scratcher. That was only Brzeski’s third trip to the judges in his career, however, he’s seen the second round in eight straight matches, with four of his last five making it to round three and three of those going the distance. So unsurprisingly, as he’s begun facing tougher competition, his fights have started lasting longer. Prior to the questionable decision loss in his UFC debut, Brzeski was involved in further controversy, after his DWCS match was stopped in the third round as the ref thought his short notice opponent tapped when he actually did not. It likely didn’t matter, as Brzeski was well ahead in the fight, and likely would have finished the choke anyways. Following the win, Brzeski was suspended for nine months after testing positive for clomiphene, a hormone medication used to treat infertility in women. Prior to going on DWCS, Brzeski landed a May 2020 R2 TKO and has only fought once a year for the last three years.

Now 8-2-1 as a pro, Brzeski has five wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision—in addition to his third round submission win on DWCS that was later overturned to a No Contest due to Brzeski failing a drug test. The only time he’s been finished was in a 2017 R1 TKO, with his other loss coming in his recent split decision.

Overall, Brzeski is from Poland and has trained with Jan Blakovich, but is a leaner Heavyweight and doesn’t have much in terms of one punch knockout power at the weight class. While no takedowns were attempted in his recent debut, Brzeski had previously looked to grapple more than your typical Heavyweight and likes to look for finishes on the mat. He throws decent calf kicks and a good amount of volume, but we’ve also seen him slow down later in fights. Brzeski faced a really undersized opponent on DWCS and then a much larger opponent in his debut, but he’ll finally take on someone his own size here.

Fight Prediction:

Brzeski will have a 1” height advantage, but Williams will have a 1” reach advantage.

This is not your typical Heavyweight fight. Williams has spent almost his entire career at Light Heavyweight and Brzeski moves like a Light Heavyweight. They’re both undersized at Heavyweight, with Brzeski tipping the scale at 236.5 lb for his last fight and Williams coming in at 233 lb. Credit to the matchmakers here, as these two fighters have very similar frames and this is basically a hybrid Heavyweight/Light Heavyweight match. Brzeski is the busier striker, but Williams is the superior wrestler and with no real size advantage on either side of this one, we expect Williams to ragdoll Brzeski around the Octagon for three rounds on his way to winning a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Williams DEC” at +200.

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DFS Implications:

Williams is a relentless wrestler who has the ability to put up outlandish takedown numbers in the right matchup. We saw that in his third most recent fight where he landed 20+ takedowns through nonstop chain wrestling. However, that required an opponent who never stopped working back to his feet. In Williams' most recent fight, he only landed three takedowns, as his cannonball shaped opponent really struggled to stand back up. Now Williams will be facing a more mobile “Heavyweight” opponent and this looks like a much better spot than his last one to put up a huge takedown total. The majority of the field won’t dig any deeper than Williams’ recent slower paced DWCS match, and won’t realize his true potential here. That should allow him to fly mostly under the radar and he looks like a great tournament play. His wrestling-heavy style is better suited for the DraftKings scoring system, and his last decision win would have been good for 87 DraftKings points but just 52 points on FanDuel. However, that should result in him being even lower owned on FanDuel, and we still like his chances of putting up a solid score there through sheer takedown numbers. While everyone will be focussed on the takedown numbers of Merab Dvalishvili, Alexandr Romanov, and Tony Gravely on this slate, it’s Karl Williams who we expect to lead the card in takedowns. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Brzeski is coming off a head scratching split decision loss, but despite landing 118 significant strikes he still only would have scored 78 DraftKings points even if the decision had gone his way, as he didn’t accrue any other stats. Prior to that, he had often looked to grapple more, so the potential is at least still there. In between his win on DWCS and his UFC debut, Brzeski was suspended nine months for PEDs, which is obviously a red flag for him moving forward. While his uptempo style of fighting looks conducive for DFS production, this is a terrible matchup for Brzeski to score well as he goes up against a relentless wrestler. That will make it really tough for Brzeski to put up a big striking total, leaving him reliant on landing a finish to both win the fight and score well. Also, a later finish may not score especially well if he gets controlled leading up to it, although at his cheaper price tag he could still serve as a value play. Brzeski hasn’t finished anybody in the first round since 2017, back in his third pro fight, and he’s a smaller Heavyweight who relies more on volume than power. That’s not very encouraging for his chances of landing a finish before he finds himself on his back and we don’t have much interest in playing Brzeski here. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Vitor Petrino

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut following a R2 KO win on DWCS, the undefeated Petrino has only been in one fight that even made it past the 9 minute mark. Just before going on DWCS, he knocked out former UFC fighter Gadzhimurad Antigulov, also in the second round. Petrino had been scheduled to make his debut back in December against Tafon Nchukwi, but Nchukwi withdrew and the fight was scrapped.

Now 7-0 as a pro, Petrino has six wins by KO/TKO and one decision victory, which occurred in his second pro fight. He’s knocked out five straight opponents since then. Four of his seven career wins came against opponents with a combined 1-23 pro record, and two more of his victories were against the same opponent, who he recently defeated for the second time on DWCS. His one other win was against UFC washout Gadzhimurad Antigulov.

Overall, Petrino is a 25-year-old Brazilian kickboxer who has added a lot of muscle over the course of his career and has heavy hands. However, that may have come at the expense of his cardio as he looks to have about a round and a half of cardio before he starts slowing down. While he hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat, he will look for takedowns followed by ground and pound. Petrino weighed just 203.5 lb for his Light Heavyweight DWCS match and will now be making his debut against a larger opponent who just fought in a 220 lb Catchweight match, which will be a situation to monitor at weigh-ins and faceoffs.

Anton Turkalj

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Turkalj will be looking to bounce back from his first career loss, which occurred in his recent short notice UFC debut against a runaway freight train in Jailton Almeida. That fight took place at a 220 lb Catchweight, opposed to at 205 lb where Turkalj normally competes, or at Heavyweight where Almeida has been fighting. Turkalj never had a chance in that matchup and Almeida did what he always does and submitted Turkalj in the first round. Prior to that loss, Turkalj won a wrestling-heavy decision on DWCS, where he looked pretty hittable but landed 11 takedowns on 16 attempts with nearly 12 minutes of control time. That’s the only time Turkalj has ever been to the judges, after he finished his first seven pro opponents. Before going on DWCS, Turkalj landed a 13 second R1 KO via spinning backfist, after locking in a R2 rear-naked choke in a fight he was losing just before that.

Now 8-1 as a pro, Turkalj has five wins by KO, two by submission, and one decision. His lone loss came by submission. Five of his wins have come in the first round, two ended in the first half of round two, and he’s coming off his only decision victory. He said after his DWCS fight that he thought it was five rounds, which you hope was a joke, but otherwise you have to question his IQ. He also walked right by Dana White after the fight and then asked if Dana was in the building, so he doesn’t appear to be the brightest bulb. He’s spent almost his entire career at 205 lb, but did have one fight down at 185 lb. He also had a 2019 exhibition grappling match against Alexander Gustafsson, who Turkalj trains with, which Gustafsson won in a decision.

Overall, Turkalj is a young 26-year-old Swedish fighter who still appears to be finding his identity in mixed martial arts. He looked like a one-dimensional chain wrestler on DWCS, but has been more willing to stand and trade in the past. With that said, he’s very hittable and hasn’t impressed us at all with his striking. While he has no problem spamming takedown attempts, he’s not the most dangerous fighter on the mat, and we’ve also seen him get controlled on his back at times. With that said, Turkalj trains out of All Stars in Sweden with Gustafsson and Chimaev, so he does have experienced fighters around him and should be making major improvements at such a young age and with his first full camp in the UFC.

Fight Prediction:

Turkalj will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as a volatile matchup between two young and unproven fighters. Petrino is a powerful striker with really dangerous hands, but uncertain cardio, while Turkalj has looked very hittable but has shown the ability to chain wrestle. They’ve each only been to one decision in their respective career and neither guy has ever been knocked out. Despite seven of Turkalj’s eight career wins coming early, he hasn’t looked nearly as dangerous as Petrino. However, if Turkalj can turn this into a wrestling match, he can neutralize the explosiveness of Petrino and wear on his gas tank. With Petrino’s cardio already in question, Turkalj likely just needs to survive early on and win one of the first two rounds, to cruise to a decision win or potentially even land a late finish. That likely leaves Petrino reliant on landing a knockout in the first two rounds to win this fight, although it’s not inconceivable he could win the first two rounds and then limp to a decision. If Petrino lands many clean shots, there’s a good chance he finds an early knockout, and based on how hittable Turkalj has looked, that seems like a very real possibility. However, betting on the debuting power puncher with cardio concerns over a wrestler is generally a losing strategy, so we’ll hold our noses and take Turkalj here. He’s capable of finding a finish, but we’ll say he grinds out a grappling-heavy decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “Turkalj DEC” at +330.

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DFS Implications:

Petrino is a powerful striker who remains undefeated and has knocked out all but one of his opponents. However, he hasn’t faced the toughest competition and we have some concerns with his cardio. We also don’t know how he’ll handle the pressure of making his UFC debut in front of a live crowd, so there are several unknowns in play. While his opponent here, Anton Turkalj, has never been knocked out, he has looked pretty hittable. That’s encouraging for Petrino’s chances of potentially landing a knockout, but we’re less confident in his ability to go three hard rounds and win a decision. Therefore, we’re treating him as a R1/R2 KO or bust option. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Turkalj unsurprisingly got steamrolled in his recent short notice UFC debut against Jailton Almeida, but will now have the opportunity to prove he belongs in the UFC in a much more reasonable matchup. Prior to his recent loss, Turkalj faced a striker on DWCS and came in with a wrestling-heavy gameplan as he landed 11 of his 16 takedown attempts, with nearly 12 minutes of control time. That would have been good for 125 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel. While that’s encouraging for his DFS scoring potential moving forward, especially on DraftKings, he didn’t look especially dangerous on the mat, despite his first seven pro wins all coming early. That leaves us less excited about him on FanDuel, where he’ll be more reliant on landing a finish to score well. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Said Nurmagomedov

8th UFC Fight (6-1)

Coming in on a four fight winning streak, Nurmagomedov is fresh off a second round submission win over Saidyokub Kakhramonov. Things were looking dicey for Nurmagomedov before he locked in the submission, as he got taken down five times and controlled for nearly eight minutes in a fight that didn’t even make it to the nine minute mark. Prior to that, Nurmagomedov won a close decision over Douglas Silva de Andrade after landing a pair of first round finishes in under 60 seconds just before that against Cody Stamann and Mark Striegl. Nurmagomedov has three first round finishes in total since joining the UFC, and one in round two, with his other three matches going the distance (2-1). His only loss in his last 12 fights came in a 2019 decision against Raoni Barcelos and 18 of his 19 pro fights have either ended in the first round (8-0) or gone the distance (8-2).

Now 17-2 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has four wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and eight decision victories. Eight of his nine finishes came in round one, while he’s coming off the first later round finish of his career. He’s never been finished and both of his losses have gone the distance. Nurmagomedov started his career at 145 lb before dropping down to 135 lb in his fourth pro fight. He tried moving all the way down to 125 lb in his UFC debut, but after winning a split decision he moved back up to 135 lb, where he’s remained since.

While Said shares the Nurmagomedov name he relies more on his striking than his wrestling and has only landed two takedowns in seven UFC fights, with just one in his last matches. He throws a ton of spinning attacks, but he’s also incredibly dangerous with his submission attempts as we saw when he submitted Saidyokub Kakhramonov and Cody Stamann in two of his last three fights. He’s yet to land more than 65 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorb more than 42, and he only averages 3.64 SSL/min and 2.05 SSA/min.

Jonathan Martinez

12th UFC Fight (8-3)

Martinez extended his winning streak to four with a second round leg kick TKO win over an aging 38-year-old Cub Swanson who was notably dropping down to Bantamweight for the first time in his career. Prior to that, Martinez had won three straight decisions and is 6-1 in his last seven outings. All 11 of Martinez’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with nine making it to round three, and seven ending in decisions. All three of his UFC fights to end early have come in late round KOs (3-1), with two third round knockout wins, and two fights that ended in second round knockouts (1-1). His only two losses in his last 10 fights were a questionable 2020 split decision against Andre Ewell and a 2021 R2 KO against Davey Grant, which is the only time Martinez has been finished in his career.

Now 17-4 as a pro, Martinez has eight wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and seven decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2021), has two decision losses, and one DQ loss. Martinez has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb, after fighting all the way down at 125 lb early in his career. He’s struggled hitting 135 lb at times, notably missing weight by 4.5 lb against Frankie Saenz in 2020, and dropping out of a 2021 matchup due to a botched weight cut. However, he seems to be getting things under control lately, so hopefully his weight struggles are behind him.

Overall, Martinez is a patient striker who loves to throw knees and kicks, but doesn’t really add a lot in terms of grappling. He destroyed the legs of his last two opponents and he notably trains with another violent leg striker, Chris Gutierrez, at altitude at Factory X in Colorado, which is also encouraging for Martinez’s cardio. Martinez struggled with getting taken down earlier in his career, as he was grounded three times in each of his first two UFC fights, but has since only been taken down twice in his last nine matches on 18 attempts.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’8” with a 70” reach.

Each of these two fighters are coming off second round finishes, although Martinez dominated his fight, while Nurmagomedov was getting dominated in his. However, after facing a grappler in his last match, Nurmagomedov will now be going against a striker in Martinez. Neither one of these guys lands a ton of striking volume or many takedowns and they only have one early loss between them, so this has the potential to end in a lower-volume decision that could come down to who has the bigger moments in the fight. Nurmagomedov is the more explosive of the two with big spinning attacks and violent guillotines, but Martinez does a good job of chipping away at opponents and sticking to a methodical game plan. That leaves Nurmagomedov the more likely of the two to find a quick finish, but gives Martinez a better chance of taking over in the later rounds, and potentially squeaking out a close decision. Eight of Nurmagomedov’s nine early wins have come in the first round and he’s always live to end fights in the opening minutes, but if Martinez can simply survive to see round two, this fight should be closer than the odds suggest down the stretch. We’re tempted to pull the trigger on Martinez here and really like his decision line, but Nurmagomedov has been facing tougher competition and has still won 11 of his last 12 fights and just seems to find ways to win close fights when he’s unable to land a first round finish. So we’re still picking Nurmagomedov to win, either in the first round or in a close decision, but we don’t feel great about it.

Our favorite bet here is “Martinez DEC” at +400.

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DFS Implications:

Nurmagomedov has always been a R1 finish or bust play in DFS, with eight of his nine career finishes ending in round one. His recent second round submission win supports that notion, as he only scored 76 DraftKings points in the win. In fairness to him, he was getting controlled on the mat for the entire fight so there was no way for him to do much, but he’s not a very active striker anyways and rarely lands any takedowns. He averages just 3.64 SSL/min and has only landed one takedown in his last six fights. While none of that is especially encouraging for his outlook, three of his six UFC wins have come in round one, with two of those ending in under 60 seconds and receiving the DraftKings Quick Win Bonus. That allowed him to score 118 and 122 points in those two quick finishes, while his prior first round finish came midway through the round and scored 107 points. At his high price tag, it gets exponentially tougher for him to crack winning tournament lineups the longer fights go, and the only way to guarantee him a spot in the winner is with a finish in the opening minute. Even with a finish later in the first round, he still has a good chance of getting outscored by the other high priced fighters, and once the second round starts, his chances of returning value are slim to none. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Martinez is coming off a career best performance in a second round TKO win via leg kicks over Cub Swanson in a fight Martinez dominated and scored 127 DraftKings points. However, the 38-year-old Swanson was notably dropping down a weight class for the first time in his career and that predictably didn’t end well for him. Now Martinez will face a much tougher task, as he squares off against a very dangerous Said Nurmagomedov, who’s in his prime, has won 11 of his last 12 matches, and has never been finished. That leaves Martinez’s outlook much more bleak, as he’s far less likely to find a finish and his most realistic path to victory will be winning a low-volume decision. Martinez has only averaged 67 DraftKings points in his five UFC decision wins, failing to top 76 points in any of those. While we’re not completely eliminating the possibility of him landing another late knockout, the chances are slim. Also, the first third round knockout win of his career only scored 68 DraftKings points and we’re expecting a slower paced match here, which means he could still struggle to score well with a late finish. His best hope will be to win a low scoring decision and have all of the other dogs around him fail, allowing him to serve as a value play. The way things have been going lately, that’s certainly possible, but still not likely. The odds imply Martinez has a 30% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Nikita Krylov

18th UFC Fight (10-7)

This fight had originally been booked as the main event just two weeks ago, but it got canceled midway through the card when Krylov pulled out due to an illness.

Coming off a high-paced decision win over Volkan Oezdemir, Krylov has won two in a row after losing four of his previous six since returning to the UFC in 2018. Both fighters came out aggressive in that recent match and Oezdemir looked to have Krylov hurt early on. Krylov responded by looking to wrestle, which slowed Oezdemir down and gave Krylov the time he needed to recover. Both guys tired after the first round and Krylov was able to outgrapple his way to a decision win as he landed 7 of his 20 takedown attempts with over nine minutes in control time.

Krylov originally joined the UFC in 2013, but following a 2016 first round submission loss to Misha Cirkunov, Krylov parted ways with the UFC and fought his next four fights outside of the organization, before returning in 2018. While two of his last three fights have ended in round one (1-1), he’s gone the distance in four of his last six, and seven of his last nine have made it to round two. Prior to his recent win over Oezdemir, Krylov knocked out a washed up Alexander Gustafsson in the first round, after getting submitted in round one by Paul Craig. Krylov’s other three most recent losses came in a pair of three-round decisions to Magomed Ankalaev and Glover Teixeira, and a second round submission against Jan Blachowicz. So he hasn’t been losing to bums.

Now 29-9 as a pro, Krylov has 12 KOs, 15 submissions, and two decision wins. He’s only been knocked out once in 38 pro fights, which was in the third round of his 2013 UFC debut up at Heavyweight, but he’s been submitted six times, and has two decision losses. All six of his submission losses ended in the first two rounds, with five coming in round one. Overall, 34 of his 38 pro fights have ended early (89%), but all four of the decisions he’s been to have occurred in his last six matches. Seven of his last nine fights have made it out of the first round, after 25 of his first 29 pro fights ended in round one. Krylov started his career at Heavyweight, before dropping down to 205 lb for his third UFC fight following a 2014 R1 KO win over Walt Harris.

Overall, Krylov is a black belt in Kyokushin Karate and a Ukrainian Master of Sports in Army hand-to-hand combat and submission fighting. He’s a solid grappler and powerful striker, who averages 4.45 SSL/min and 2.1 TDL/15 min. He tends to start strong but tire out later in fights, with all 27 of his early wins coming in the first two rounds. He’s just 2-3 in fights that have lasted longer than 10 minutes. While he’s still just 31 years old, with 38 pro fights under his belt he has a lot of wear and tear on his body.

Ryan Spann

10th UFC Fight (7-2)

Fresh off a first round knockout win over Dominick Reyes, Spann has won two in a row and three of his last four, with his last five fights all ending in under four minutes. The last time he saw the second round was in May 2020 when he won a split decision over Sam Alvey. That win brough Spann to 4-0 in the UFC at the time, but he then got knocked out in the first round of his next fight against Johnny Walker. Spann bounced back with a first round knockout win of his own against Misha Cirkunov, before getting submitted in the first round by Anthony Smith. Spann once again returned the favor in his next match, landing a first round submission against Ion Cutelaba, leading up to his recent win over Reyes. Spann originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2017, but got finished by Karl Roberson in just 15 seconds and was forced to return to the LFA before going back on DWCS in 2018 and landing a first round submission win in just 26 seconds to secure a contract.

Now 21-7 as a pro, Spann has six wins by KO, 12 by submission, and three decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has lost two decisions. All nine of his fights to end in knockouts (6-3) have ended in the first round, as have 10 of his 12 submission wins and one of his two submission losses. He’s had two fights end in second round submissions (1-1), while the only time we’ve seen a finish in one of his fights beyond the eight minute mark was in a 2015 R3 submission win in his seventh pro fight. Nine of his 12 submission wins have come by guillotine, while he also has three by rear-naked choke. Overall, 20 of his 28 pro fights have ended in the first five minutes (71.4%). Thirteen of his last 15 fights have ended early, with 12 of those ending in R1. While six of his nine UFC fights have ended in round one, two of his three to see the second round ultimately went the distance. Spann fought at 185 lb early in his career before moving up to 205 lb later on.

Overall, Spann is constantly looking to end fights early either through striking or submissions (typically by guillotine). He’s also been prone to getting finished quickly himself, with his last three losses all ending in under four minutes. In fights that have lasted longer than a round, we’ve seen him slow down late and he barely hung on to win a split decision against Sam Alvey in 2020. While he’s an aggressive fighter, he still only averages 3.42 SSL/min and 1.5 TDL/15 min, and he’s failed to land a takedown in his last four fights on just two attempts. In his nine UFC fights and DWCS appearance, Spann has been taken down 9 times on 18 opponent attempts (50% defense). Only one of his last six opponents even tried to take him down, which was Ion Cutelaba, who landed all three of his attempts but then got submitted via guillotine, which Spann had been looking for throughout the fight. Spann missed weight for his last fight by less than a pound, and is generally a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins. However, we often see him look bad at weigh-ins and still perform okay, so you have to be careful reading too much into how he looks at weigh-ins.

Fight Prediction:

Spann will have a 2” height and reach advantage.

These two had been training for a 205 lb five-round fight, but will now be competing in a three-round 215 lb Catchweight match, just two weeks after they both cut down to 205 lb. The additional weight allowance should ease the burden of a second weight cut, but they’ll still each be cutting some weight twice in a two week span, which adds a little more uncertainty to the mix. We still expect fireworks early on, as we have two fighters who are the most dangerous in round one and both come out of the gates firing. We give the power advantage to Spann, while Krylov is the better wrestler. However, that wrestling advantage could very well get Krylov into trouble, as Spann has a nasty guillotine choke that he consistently looks for when opponents try to take him down, which is how he’s finished 9 of his 12 career submission wins. We’ve seen Krylov get hurt or tired and immediately shoot for somewhat sloppy takedowns without setting them up first and that should give Spann the perfect opportunity to wrap up his neck. Spann also has the power to knock Krylov out, just keep in mind that Krylov has been submitted six times but has only been knocked out once in 38 pro fights, which was in the third round of his 2013 UFC debut up at Heavyweight. Both of these fighters are prone to gassing out and if we don’t see a finish in the first two rounds we expect them to limp to a decision, with Krylov likely relying on his wrestling to control Spann down the stretch. Krylov has shown the ability to continue to wrestle even when he looks exhausted, and if this makes it to the judges we like his chances of getting his hand raised. However, we’re going with the underdog here in Spann and we’ll say he locks up another guillotine in the first round.

Our favorite bet here is “Spann R1 SUB” at +1300.

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DFS Implications:

Krylov has averaged 114 DraftKings points in his 10 UFC wins with at least 97 in all of those and 105 or more in nine of them. All but two of his 29 career wins have come early, with all 27 of those finishes coming in the first two rounds. Now he’ll face an aggressive opponent in Spann who’s been finished in five of his seven pro losses and this fight is unlikely to require the judges. Krylov offers a solid combination of striking and wrestling and we saw him attempt a ridiculous 20 takedowns in his recent three-round decision win, landing seven of those. However, while Spann has just a 50% takedown defense, he has a nasty guillotine choke that Krylov will need to watch out for every time he looks to shoot. Spann also has a ton of power in his striking so Krylov will be at risk of getting finished anywhere the fight goes. However, 16 of Spann’s 18 career finishes have come in the first round and he slows down later in fights. So if Krylov can survive the opening round and simply not gas out as hard as Spann in the later rounds, we could see him dominate the fight on the ground. Just keep in mind, neither of these two have very good cardio, although they were both just training for a five-round fight before this matchup got postponed and switched to three rounds. Krylov’s recent grappling-heavy three-round decision win was good for 127 DraftKings points and 101 points on FanDuel. So while that type of smothering victory generally has a higher ceiling on DraftKings, he can still score well on FanDuel also through sheer takedown numbers. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in round one.

Spann has been entirely reliant on landing first round finishes to score well in DFS and he totaled just 66 and 63 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins. He also only scored 79 points in a 2019 second round submission victory and his low striking volume (3.42 SSL/min) and questionable cardio make it tougher for him to succeed when he’s unable to get opponents out of there early. However, he’s super dangerous early on and 16 of his 21 career wins have come in the first round. He has solid power and a nasty guillotine that he’s finished nine opponents with and will now be facing an opponent who attempted 20 takedowns in his last fight. That’s a lot of opportunities to look for a guillotine if Krylov approaches this fight similarly. We also saw Krylov get hurt on the feet early in his last match and Spann is coming off a violent first round knockout win, albeit over the corpse of Dominick Reyes. However, while Spann has multiple ways to find an early finish, he has questionable cardio and has only finished two opponents in the later rounds, both by guillotine. Guillotine finishes already struggle to score as well as most other finishing methods because they generally don’t include a knockdown or takedown. While Spann’s cheaper price tag likely means he can get away with that in the first round, a later round guillotine victory could easily not be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups, and he only scored 79 points in a 2019 second round guillotine win. That’s not to say it’s impossible for him to put up a useful score with a later round finish, but it’s definitely less likely. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Alexandr Romanov

7th UFC Fight (5-1)

Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Romanov dominated the first round against Marcin Tybura, but after landing multiple big energy body slams in the first round, he gassed out later in the fight and ended up losing a split decision. Prior to that decision loss, Romanov won his first 16 pro fights, and had never been in a fight that lasted longer than 13 minutes. He landed a second round submission in his 2020 UFC debut against a terrible Roque Martinez, who finished 0-3 in the UFC. Romanov followed that up with a first round submission win over the highly submittable Marcos Rogerio de Lima, who had also been submitted in all four of his previous UFC losses. Then Romanov faced a step up in competition when he went up against fellow Heavyweight grappler Juan Espino. While Romanov was ahead in that fight, Espino was able to take him down four times on five attempts and made the fight close. Both guys gassed out in the second round, and early in round three Espino landed an inadvertent low blow that Romanov appeared to take advantage of as he said he couldn’t continue and the match ended in a rare technical decision 65 seconds into round three, which Romanov won on the score cards. Then in his last two wins, Romanov was spoon fed low-level Heavyweights in Jared Vanderaa, who Romanov finished via TKO late in round two, and Chase Sherman, who Romanov quickly submitted in round one. So all of Romanov’s dominant wins have come against low-level opponents with poor grappling and he’s faded in the back halves of fights when faced with tougher competition that he can’t put away.

Now 16-1 as a pro, Romanov has six wins by KO, nine by submission, and one technical decision win. Only four of his 17 fights have made it to the third round, while 11 have ended in round one, and two ended in round two. However, four of his six UFC fights have made it to the final minute of the second round. Romanov weighed in at 260 lb or above in his first four UFC fights, but then trimmed all the way down to 236.5 lb against Sherman, before checking in at 239.5 lb for his last fight. Despite losing all that weight, he still gassed out in that last match, but his weight will be something we’ll continue to monitor.

Overall, Romanov has a freestyle wrestling background and has landed 18 takedowns on 29 attempts (62.1%) in his six UFC fights, with at least two takedowns landed in each of those matches. Meanwhile, the only fighter to try and take him down was Juan Espino, who landed four of his five attempts, so Romanov has shown just a 20% takedown defense, albeit in a limited sample size. It’s no secret what Romanov’s game plan is coming into every fight, but it’s easier said than done to stop him as he simply overpowers his opponents and slams them to the mat. His one issue has been his gas tank, and he doesn’t do himself any favors as he uses a ton of energy suplexing opponents. It will be interesting to see if he makes any changes after suffering the first loss of his career.

Alexander Volkov

14th UFC Fight (9-4)

Volkov is coming off a R1 TKO win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, in what looked like an overly quick stoppage. That was Volkov’s second straight fight to end in the first round, after he got submitted by Tom Aspinall in the first round of a London main event just before that. Prior to the pair of quick stoppages, Volkov had seen the second round in all of his first 11 UFC matches, with nine of those making it to round three and six going the distance. Volkov’s last eight fights have all either ended in under a round and a half (3-1) or gone the distance (2-2). The last time we saw a finish in the back half of one of his fights was when he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis in 2019 with 11 seconds remaining in the third round. Just before Volkov’s loss to Aspinall, he won a decision over Heavyweight grappler Marcin Tybura, where Volkov was able to stuff all 16 of Tybura’s takedown attempts.

Now 35-10 as a pro, Volkov has 23 wins by KO, three by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times, and has five decision losses. Volkov has five knockouts in the UFC, with four of those coming in rounds two through four against aging fighters towards the end of their careers. He’s gone 4-2 in UFC decisions and has been finished twice since joining the organization, with a 2018 R3 KO loss to Derrick Lewis and a 2022 first round submission loss to Aspinall. The only other time he’s been knocked out in 45 pro fights was in the first round of a 2013 fight against the former Bellator Heavyweight champ Vitaly Minakov.

Overall, Volkov is essentially a one-dimensional striker who has very little interest in going to the mat, despite being a BJJ brown belt and having three submission wins on his record (2010, 2014 & 2016). He hasn’t landed a takedown in his last six fights and has just seven total in 13 UFC matches, with five of those coming in his first four UFC fights. After getting taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes in 2020, Volkov bulked up from 247 lb to 265 lb to try to improve his wrestling base, which improved his takedown defense considerably as he stopped all 22 of the takedowns attempted against him in his next four fights, after getting taken down 14 times on 25 attempts by Curtis Blaydes and a total of 19 times on 54 attempts from his first seven UFC opponents combined. However, he then cut back down to 253 lb for his fight against Aspinall and got taken down twice and submitted in less than a round. He didn’t have to worry about dealing with any takedown attempts in his last fight against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and he weighed in at 256.5 lb. He’s looked much more capable of defending takedowns when he comes in close to the 265 lb Heavyweight limit, but has had a much tougher time when he checks in close to 250 lb. So it will be interesting to see what he weighs on Friday, and we’ll feel better about his chances of defending takedowns if he weighs over 260 lb. The downside for him when he comes in heavier is that his cardio appears to suffer, so it’s a trade-off either way.

Fight Prediction:

Volkov will have a 5” height and reach advantage.

Both of these two fighters share something in common, which is they’ve each historically struggled against wrestlers. However, that only poses an issue for one of them in this matchup. Based on what we’ve seen from Volkov in the past, when he comes in lighter (247-253 lb) he tends to struggle defending takedowns but has solid cardio. However, when he comes in heavier (260 lb+) he runs into more cardio issues, but does a much better job of defending takedowns. That creates a real problem for him here, where he’ll need to defend takedowns early and have the cardio to take over in the later rounds once Romanov gasses out. Volkov has been a really tough guy to knock out, but has been submitted three times in his career, all in the first round. We recently saw Aspinall submit Volkov with a straight armbar and Romanov landed a similar submission in his last finish. If Romanov can get Volkov down early and control him, there’s a good chance he submits him. With that said, it’s hard to be overly confident in a guy with cardio concerns who’s only defeated low-level opponents. While Volkov is no match for Romanov when it comes to wrestling, he’ll have a massive striking advantage if he can keep the fight standing. However, he’ll likely need to wait for Romanov to gas out before he gets many opportunities to operate in space, and at that point, Volkov may also be exhausted himself from defending all of Romanov’s takedown attempts. That creates the potential for this to end in a sloppy and potentially close decision if Romanov is unable to find an early finish. And with that in mind, the only two times Romanov has been to the score cards, both ended in split/majority decisions. We’ll say Romanov bounces back and lands a submission in the first two rounds, most likely in round one.

Our favorite bet here is “Romanov R1 or R2 SUB” at +340.

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DFS Implications:

Romanov has averaged 121 DraftKings points in his four early wins in the UFC, but has yet to show he can go three hard rounds or score well in a decision. After dominating the first round of his last fight, he gassed out in round two and limped to a majority decision loss. Even if the decision had gone his way, he still would have scored just 81 DraftKings points. He also scored just 67 DraftKings points against Juan Espino in a technical decision win that was stopped a minute into the third round after Romanov opted not to proceed following a low blow he absorbed. While neither of those results are encouraging for his potential here if he can’t find a finish, just keep in mind those were both against fellow wrestlers and now Romanov will get to face a striker. Volkov does own a 71% takedown defense, but he also holds the dubious honors for the most takedowns ever allowed in a Heavyweight fight at 14. That leaves Romanov as a boom or bust option, with a massive ceiling but an uncertain floor. Romanov is always heavily owned by the field, and in his six UFC fights his DraftKings ownership has come in at 59%, 74%, 41%, 68%, 68%, and 40% most recently. We did see his ownership dip in his two tougher matchups, so the field has annoyingly done a pretty decent job of going especially heavy on Romanov in smash spots and backing up some when he’s scored poorly. It will be interesting to see how owned he is here. The odds imply Romanov has a 59% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Volkov has generally struggled to put up huge scores in DFS, despite landing knockouts in five of his nine UFC wins. He’s coming off his only first round finish in 13 UFC appearances, but still only scored 98 DraftKings points as he failed to land a knockdown in the quick stoppage. His other three most recent knockout wins returned scores of 102, 88, and 92 points. He’s also only averaged 75 DraftKings points in his four UFC decision wins, with three scores of 69 or less. Now he’ll face a grappler who’s never been finished in his career, and unless Volkov lands another quick first round knockout, which is unlikely, he’ll likely need to weather a storm early, which will put a damper on his scoring potential. At Volkov’s cheaper price tag, he could still be useful with a lower scoring win, especially the way things have been going lately, but it’s hard to count that and he likely needs a finish to crack tournament winning lineups. He looks like a low floor, low ceiling option, who has the potential to be overowned based on his name, cheap price, and his recent R1 KO win combined with Romanov’s recent decision defeat. If you’re looking for leverage off of the ever popular Romanov, you’re probably better off fading the fight than playing Volkov. The odds imply Volkov has a 41% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Petr Yan

12th UFC Fight (8-3)

Yan is somehow on a two fight losing streak and just 1-3 in his last four fights, after starting his career off 15-1. After winning the vacant Bantamweight belt against Jose Aldo in July 2020, Yan landed the illegal knee that was heard around the world in a DQ loss to Aljamain Sterling in March 2021. Sterling then dropped out of their rematch seven months later, so Yan fought Cory Sandhagen for the interim title, which Yan won by decision. He then got his rematch against Sterling, which ended in a razor close split decision loss for Yan that ultimately came down to how the judges scored the coin flip first round. Yan then took on Sean O'Malley most recently and lost another split-decision, in what looked like a clear win for Yan.

Now 16-4 as a pro, Yan has seven wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and eight decisions. His lone submission win came in a R1 guillotine in his third pro fight back in 2015, while two of his knockout wins ended in round one, one ended in round two, three ended in round three, and the other came in round five. His last three knockouts all occurred in the later rounds. He’s never been finished, with three decision losses and one by DQ. All three of his decision defeats have been split, while all eight of his decision wins were unanimous.

Yan generally wears on his opponents as fights go on and 16 of his 20 career fights have seen the third round. Even his lone second round TKO came following the second round as his opponent’s corner threw in the towel. After landing a first round knockout in his 2018 UFC debut, Yan’s last 10 fights have all seen the second round, with nine making it to round three.

This will be the 8th five-round fight of Yan’s career and 5th in the UFC. He had three fights scheduled to go five rounds before he joined the UFC, which ended in a 2016 split-decision loss, a 2017 decision win, and a 2017 R3 KO win. He then won the vacant Bantamweight belt against Jose Aldo in a 2020 R5 TKO, before losing the belt to Sterling in a R4 DQ. Yan then won the interim belt in a five-round decision win over Sandhagen, before losing a split decision to Sterling. So ultimately Yan is 4-3 in five-round fights with all seven seeing the third round, six making it to the championship rounds, and four going the distance.

Overall, Yan has a background in boxing and Taekwondo is a very patient fighter and universally regarded as a slow starter. He’s a calculated striker who wears on his opponents with his crisp, powerful striking and has elite defensive wrestling. In his 11 UFC fights, Yans has only been taken down on 7 of 71 opponent attempts (90.1% defense). All 11 of Yan’s UFC opponents have tried to take him down, with six of those opponents failing to land any of their attempts and three of them landing just a single takedown. The only two opponents to get him down twice were Aljamain Sterling, who landed 2 of his 22 attempts in their rematch that went five rounds, and John Dodson, who landed 2 of his 8 attempts in a 2019 three-round decision. Sterling only landed 1 of his 17 attempts the first time he fought Yan and overall he landed just 3 of his 39 attempts against Yan in their two fights. On the other side of things, Yan has landed 22 takedowns of his own on 39 attempts (56.4% accuracy). Yan effectively utilizes a high guard to avoid absorbing many clean shots and has a solid 59% striking defense. He does a great job of catching kicks and mixing in trips to ground his opponents, although he’s only a BJJ blue belt and not much of a submission threat as he’s only looking for ground and pound on the mat. He would generally prefer to keep fights standing unless he has a major wrestling advantage, as we saw in his last fight against Sean O'Malley. His patient approach often results in him trailing in striking early on in fights, and he’s actually been outlanded overall in significant strikes in four of his last seven fights.

Merab Dvalishvili

11th UFC Fight (8-2)

Coming off a slower paced decision win over Jose Aldo, Dvalishvili has now won eight straight fights since starting off his UFC career 0-2. All 10 of his UFC fights have made it to the nine minute mark, with nine going the full 15 minutes, and eight ending in decisions. He had a bizarre 2018 post R3 submission loss where he made it to the final horn, but was deemed out after time expired. His only early win in the UFC was a September 2021 R2 TKO over a freefalling Marlon Moraes. Prior to that, Dvalishvili had won six straight decisions, and he’s now shown he can hang even against tougher competition as he continues to climb the ranks. While Dvalishvili was unable to land any of his 16 takedown attempts against the elite 91% takedown defense of Aldo, he used his attempts to wear Aldo out against the cage, while landing strikes out of the clinch. That neutralized Aldo’s offense and Dvalishvili finished ahead 57-38 in significant strikes and 135-59 in total strikes. Just before that win, Marlon Moraes had Dvalishvili badly hurt on the feet in the first round, but punched himself out going for a finish and Dvalishvili narrowly survived and bounced back to finish an exhausted Moraes late in round two.

Now 15-4 as a pro, Dvalishvili has three wins by KO, one by submission, and 11 decisions. Three of his four finishes came earlier in his career before he joined the UFC and his second most recent early win was back in 2017. He’s never been knocked out, and the only time he’s ever been finished came in a weird post round three technical submission loss to Ricky Simon in 2018. His other three losses all ended in decisions, with two of those occurring in his first three pro fights.

This will be the 1st five-round fight of Dvalishvili’s career. He’s an absolute cardio machine, although he still needs to show he can keep that pace for five straight rounds.

Overall, Dvalishvili is a relentless wrestler with an endless gas tank. He’s also improved his striking over the course of his UFC career, largely out of necessity as he’s faced tougher competition that he can’t ragdoll for entire fights. In his 10 UFC fights, Dvalishvili has only been taken down by his opponents three times on 14 attempts, (78.6% defense), although only one of his last eight opponents has even tried to take him down. On the other side of things, Dvalishvili has landed 63 takedowns on an insane 155 attempts (40.6% accuracy). However, it’s worth breaking up his UFC career into two segments—when he was facing a lower level of competition in his first six matches, opposed to when started facing tougher ranked opponents in his last four matches. In his first six UFC fights, Dvalishvili landed 52 of his 104 attempts (50% accuracy, 8.67 TDL/15 min, 17.33 TDA/15 min). However, in his last four fights, Dvalishvili landed just 11 of his 51 attempts (21.6% accuracy, 3.03 TDL/15 min, 14.06 TDA/15 min). Now Dvalishvili will face another really tough test in the 90% takedown defense of Petr Yan.

Fight Prediction:

Yan will have a 1” height advantage, but Dvalishvili will have a 1” reach advantage. Yan is also two years younger than the 32-year-old Dvalishvili.

There are a lot of interesting dynamics in play here as the Serra-Longo Fight Team once again prepares to face Petr Yan in a five-round match. They’re 2-0 against Yan recently, with Aljamain Sterling winning by DQ and split decision in a pair of dicey matchups that both broke their way. Sterling came out super aggressive in the first fight, but incredibly timid in the second matchup, so we’ve seen a variety of game plans. Obviously Dvalishvili and Sterling are completely different fighters and Dvalishvili has the better cardio of the two, while Sterling is the more dangerous submission threat. Sterling attempted 39 takendowns in those two fights, despite only landing three of them, and the team never shied away from attacking Yan’s elite 90% takedown defense. We certainly don’t expect Dvalishvili to at all get away from what got him here, his high-paced wrestling, and he should be looking to execute his normal wrestling-heavy gameplan. The bigger question will be, how much trouble is Dvalishvili in if he can’t get Yan to the mat? While Dvalishvili has made major improvements to his striking over his UFC career, he’s still not at Yan’s level, and even a washed up Marlon Moraes nearly finished Dvalishvili. That’s one of the very few times we’ve actually seen Dvalishvili hurt, but he also hasn’t been facing many potent finishers.

Yan is coming off back-to-back split decision losses and should come in with maximum motivation to finish this fight early and keep it out of the judges’ hands. However, Dvalishvili has never been knocked out and Yan hasn’t submitted anybody since his third pro match, so a finish won’t come easy. Yan has required the judges in 6 of his 11 UFC fights and Dvalishvili 8 of his 10, but if Yan can keep the fight standing or put Dvalishvili on his back, a TKO is entirely possible. If it does go the distance, it will be interesting to see how the judges weigh the grappling attempts, potential control time, and constant activity of Dvalishvili, compared to the more damaging shots coming from Yan. That creates the potential for contrasting opinions on how the fight is scored and another split decision is in play if the fight remains close. All three of Yan’s career decision losses have been split, as have two of Dvalishvili’s three decision defeats.

Ultimately, we like Yan to stuff the vast majority of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts and quickly get up if/when he does get taken down. Therefore, the majority of the fight will be spent on the feet or in the clinch. The only fighter to ever control Yan for any appreciable amount of time was Sterling, and only when he was able to take his back in their last fight. We don’t see Dvalishvili having that same success or winning a striking battle against Yan. The one real knock on Yan has been he’s a slow starter, which ended up costing him the belt when he lost the close first round in the last fight against Sterling, and Dvalishvili is anything but slow. So if Dvalishvili does take an early lead, and you combine that with some interpretative judging, it’s possible we see him squeak out a close decision, but we’re taking Yan to win in either a late round knockout or more likely by decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Yan R4, R5, or DEC” at -115.

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DFS Implications:

Yan offers a nice combination of striking (5.31 SSL/min) and grappling (1.9 TDL/15 min) that provides a solid scoring floor and massive ceiling, and he’s also tied with Marlon Vera for the most knockdowns landed in Bantamweight history at 10. His last two wins in five-round fights returned DraftKings scores of 108 (DEC) and 154 (R5 TKO). He also scored 90 points in a R4 DQ LOSS against Aljamain Sterling, which would have been another massive score had he simply not lost the fight. Dvalishvili pushes a crazy pace and also isn’t any sort of a finishing threat, which leaves Yan with an incredibly safe scoring floor and a solid ceiling. This fight is pretty heavily favored by the oddsmakers to go the distance, which makes sense when you look at their recent results and also consider Yan has never been finished and Dvalishvili’s only early career loss was a bizarre post R3 submission stoppage. That should give both fighters solid scoring floors and creates the potential for the rare fight stack to end up in the winning DraftKings lineup, IF Yan wins a high-volume decision AND we get another slate where no more than two underdogs win. It will still require a lot to go right, but this is the one week we won’t immediately dismiss the idea of stacking a fight in tournaments. The odds imply Yan has a 69% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Dvalishvili has been a one-man wrecking crew in DFS, averaging 120 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins and 86 points in his two UFC losses. And while all of his previous fights have been three rounds, now he’ll have five-rounds to work with. However, he’ll also be facing the toughest test of his career as he takes on the 90% takedown defense of Petr Yan. We just saw Dvalishvili go up against the similarly impenetrable 91% takedown defense of Jose Aldo, where Dvalishvili failed to land any of his 16 takedown attempts and only scored 78 DraftKings points and 54 points on FanDuel. While that can be used as a knock against Dvalishvili when discussing this upcoming matchup, he was still very active with his striking out of the clinch, landing 135 total strikes, and if you extend his numbers in that fight over the course of five rounds, you’d be looking at 111 DraftKings points, but still just 77 points on FanDuel. That gives you an idea of just how big Dvalishvili’s floor is here, especially on DraftKings. It would be shocking to see Dvalishvili finish Yan, which leaves his lone path to victory being by decision. However, at his cheap price tag, even if he loses a decision, we could see him end up in the winning DraftKings lineup if no more than two other underdogs on the slate win. That’s not the most likely scenario, but it does increase his chances of returning value here. The only downside with all of that is we expect Dvalishvili to be popular at his cheap price. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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