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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Tony Gravely
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first UFC win in two attempts, Gravely defeated Geraldo de Freitas Jr. in a hard fought, grappling heavy split decision. That was the first time Gravely had been to the judges since 2017, as his previous nine fights had all ended early. Gravely lost his January 2020 UFC debut against another really tough grappler in Brett Johns via R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. Prior to that loss, he had won seven in a row, with six KOs and one submission. Two of those KOs did notably come in the fourth and fifth rounds of five round fights, so he did have a little extra time to work in those. His last five fights have all made it out of the first round, and his last three have all seen the third round. Gravely got his shot in the UFC with a third round KO against Ray Rodriguez on DWCS in August 2019.
Five of his six career losses have come by submission, including three in the first round. His only other career loss came by decision and he’s never been knocked out. That decision loss notably came against Merab Dvalishvili prior to them both joining the UFC. One of Gravely’s earlier submission losses also came against a UFC fighter, in Manny Bermudez, so he’s fought several UFC level talents outside of the organization.
Gravely has a celebrated background in wrestling in both high school and college and has trained with the VA Tech wrestling team, but is more of a threat to land knockouts through ground and pound than submissions. He’s notably landed 15 takedowns in his last three fights.
Anthony Birchak
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Now in his second stint with the UFC, Birchak stepped in on short notice in his recent first fight back with the organization and lost by R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission against Gustavo Lopez. Birchak made his original UFC debut back in 2014. However, after going 2-2 he was released in 2016 and forced to fight elsewhere. His first three UFC fights all ended in the first round, beginning with a Heel Hook submission loss in his 2014 debut. He then bounced back with a R1 KO win against Joe Soto, who ended up going 3-5 in the UFC. Following the win, Birchak was knocked out in R1 himself, by former top prospect Thomas Almeida. Birchak again bounced back from a loss, this time with a decision win in his fourth UFC fight against Dileno Lopes, who went 0-2 in the UFC before being released. The decision win was not enough to land Birchak a new contract as he was then released, and forced to move on to Rizin.
He lost three straight decisions in Rizin in 2017, and again was left looking for a new home. In 2018 he landed a 51 second R1 KO with Combate Americas to break his losing streak. He followed up that win with a first round Rear-Naked Choke Submission in the LFA, and then kept his momentum alive with another R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win back with Combate Americas. The three straight R1 wins were apparently enough to get him back on the UFC’s rader, and after a 13 month wait he got the call up.
Now 34 years old, 13 of Birchak’s 16 career wins have come early, with five KOs and eight submissions. Four of his seven losses have also come early, as he’s been KO’d once and submitted three times. Prior to his recent R1 submission loss in his the UFC, he was also submitted in the first round of his original UFC debut by a Heel Hook specialist. His third career submission loss was a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission all the way back in 2011. As mentioned previously, his lone KO loss came against Almeida in 2015.
His fights that have ended early have typically not made it to the second round. Nine of his 13 early wins have come in R1, three in R2 and just one in R3. All four of his early losses have also come in the first round. With a college wrestling background, Birchak is a BJJ black belt who appears more dangerous as a grappler than a striker.
Somehow Birchak opened as a -155 favorite over Gustavo Lopez in his last fight, but the line flipped to him being a +125 dog by lock, and now he comes in as the biggest underdog on the slate in this fight.
Fight Prediction:
Birchak will have a 3” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach.
Gravely is a great wrestler and a solid striker. He’s also improved over time as a finisher—at least prior to joining the UFC. After facing a pair of really tough opponents in his first two UFC fights, Gravely looks to get an easier matchup here. Birchak looked terrible in his last fight, albeit under tough circumstances after he took the fight on short notice in his return to the UFC. Birchak is more or less a hail mary submission threat, but we like Gravely to get a finish here. Birchak’s submission defense looked terrible in his last fight, but Gravely is more likely to finish the fight with ground and pound.
“Gravely ITD” at +110 and “Gravely Wins by KO” at +195 are our favorite bets here. If you want longer odds, check out “Fight Ends in Submission” at +300, “Gravely Wins by R3 KO” at +1500, or “Birchak Wins by R1 Submission” at +1600.
DFS Implications:
Gravely is a lunch pail type fighter, who grinds away at opponents with his wrestling but can also stand and trade. He’s typically not the most likely to land a first round win, as only three of his 11 career finishes have come in round one, and he won’t blow you away with his striking, but his overall well rounded game will fill up a scoresheet and typically result in a win. The biggest reason we’re so high on Gravely here is based on who he’s fighting, as Birchak is the type of opponent you want to target. The last time he fought, he took on Gustavo Lopez, who went on to lead the FanDuel slate in scoring at 132.6 points and was the second highest scorer on DraftKings with 119 points under the old scoring (114 new scoring). All three of Birchak’s UFC losses have come in the first round, and his opponents have scored 90, 110, and 114 points on DraftKings and 115, 141, and 133 points on FanDuel. Gravely is tied for the biggest favorite on the slate at -300, implying a 72% chance he gets the win. The odds also suggest he has a 46% chance to get a finish (2nd highest on the slate), and an 18% chance it comes in R1 (tied for 2nd highest on the slate).
If Birchak wins, it will most likely come via submission. As the cheapest fighter on each DFS site, that would essentially guarantee him a spot in winning lineups. While Birchak looked terrible in his recent fight, it is worth remembering that he took that fight on short notice. Five of Gravely’s six career losses have notably come by submission, as have eight of Birchak’s 16 career wins. So the numbers do at least seem to suggest a submission win for Birchak is possible. The odds suggest Birchak has a 28% chance to win this fight, a 16% chance to end it early and an 8% chance to get it done in the first round. Gravely notably leads the slate on missed takedown attempts per 15 minutes at five, and Birchak does have a 73% takedown defense. So Birchak also has the chance to bolster his FanDuel score with takedowns defended. We still expect Gravely to dominate Birchak in this fight, but anything’s possible and a Birchak win would break this slate from the start.
Fight #10
Austin Hubbard
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Hubbard had originally been scheduled to fight Natan Levy, but Levy was forced to withdraw due to injury and Bush stepped in on short notice.
Coming off a first round submission loss to Joe Solecki, Hubbard has alternated wins and losses over his last six fights. The only other time he’s been finished in his career was from a 2016 R2 Rear-Naked Choke. He’s never been knocked out and he’s generally done a good job of not getting submitted, as he survived to see decisions against advanced grapplers Davi Ramos and Mark O. Madsen.
His first UFC win came in a 2019 decision against Kyle Prepolec, who came into the fight 0-1 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since. Hubbard then lost a decision to Olympic medalist Mark O. Madesen, before defeating a debuting Max Rohskopf, who literally quit after the second round. That officially went down as a TKO, but we all know the truth.
After starting his career at 170 lb, Hubbard moved down to 155 lb in 2017, where he’s stayed since.
Dakota Bush
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut following a run in the LFA, Bush comes in on a two fight winning streak with his last three wins all ending in the first round. He enters with an 8-2 pro record with six of those wins coming early, including five in the first round. Two of those finishes came by KO, while the other four ended in Rear-Naked Choke submissions. Both of his losses went the distance and he’s never been finished. His background is in wrestling and he doesn’t appear to be a huge threat on the feet, but he is coming off a R1 KO, which was his first knockout since his 2016 pro debut.
His record isn’t overly padded on paper, but it also doesn’t look like he’s faced anyone close to UFC caliber, with none of his opponents looking good on tape. Here are the records of his opponents coming into his fights: 0-0, 1-0, 3-3, 7-2, 8-2, 2-1, 7-4, 9-2, 5-3 and 4-1.
UPDATE: Bush looked pretty scrawny on the scale, Hubbard might eat this kid alive.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10” but Bush will have a 2” reach advantage.
Hubbard has typically done a good job of winning the fights he's supposed to win, so it would be a little surprising to see him come in flat for this one and allow the UFC newcomer to pull the upset. Hubbard’s really just a grinder, with eight of his last 12 fights going the distance. The four that ended early during that stretch were a 2017 R3 Submission win, a 2018 R5 KO win, a 2020 post R2 Retirement win (his only UFC “finish”) and then the recent R1 Submission loss. We like Hubbard to win a decision here, but as is often the case we could see a wider range of outcomes with a fighter making his UFC debut.
Hubbard’s -182 moneyline is the safest bet here.“Hubbard Wins by Decision” at +120 or “Hubbard ITD” at +375 are also fine.
DFS Implications:
Hubbard likely needs a first round finish to return value in this spot, as even when he got a best-case-scenario stoppage following the second round against Max Rohskopf, he still scored just 93 DraftKings points. Hubbard also scored exactly 93 points in his prior decision win, and has failed to land a takedown in four of his five UFC fights. He also doesn’t throw much volume, and rarely finishes opponents, so overall not a recipe for DFS success. Priced at $8,900 on DraftKings, it’s hard to see Hubbard returning value here. The odds imply he has a 19% chance to get a finish with an 8% chance it comes in R1. He’s not a guy we’re looking to have much if any exposure to.
Bush has essentially been a R1 or bust fighter throughout his career, with 9 of his 10 fights either ending in R1 or going the distance. The one exception was a 2018 R3 Rear-Naked Choke win with 11 seconds left in the fight. Priced near the bottom at just $7,300, Bush could still prove to be useful with a grappling heavy decision win. With that said, he hasn’t really fought anyone and now he’s making his UFC debut on short notice. Hubbard has generally been a tough fighter to score well against—at least outside of getting submitted by Solecki in the first round of his last fight. The odds do imply Bush has a 38% chance to win this fight, a 23% chance to get it done early, and even a 10% chance to finish it in R1, so it makes sense to have some exposure, but this looks like a tough spot for him to excel.
Fight #9
Bartosz Fabinski
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Fabinski has been submitted in the first round of his last two UFC fights, although he did defeat Darren Stewart last Spring outside of the UFC, in Cage Warriors while the UFC was shut down for COVID. Fabinski’s last five wins have all ended in decisions, but he does have eight knockouts on his record to go along with his seven career decision wins. He’s never submitted an opponent, but three of his four career losses have come by submission, with the fourth ending in a decision.
He came into the UFC in 2015 with an 11-2 pro record, with eight of those 11 wins coming by R1 KO and one of the two losses ending in a first round submission by Heel Hook. The other four all ended in decisions (3-1). In his UFC debut he took on submission specialist Garreth McLellan, who was also making his debut. Fabinski dominated the grappling as he went 10 for 11 on takedowns and accrued nearly 11 minutes of control time, while also coming out ahead 41-13 in significant strikes and 116-51 in total strikes. McLellan attempted two submissions but was unsuccessful on each. McLellan notably went on to go 1-4 in the UFC before eventually being released in 2017.
Fabinski started his career at 185 lb, but moved down to 170 lb for his next three fights, following the win in his debut. In his second UFC fight he took on Hector Urbina, who generally is more of a knockout threat, but did land a R1 Guillotine Choke in his previous fight. Fabinski again put on a dominating grappling performance, as he went 6 for 11 on takedowns and amassed a crazy 13 minutes and 33 seconds of control time, while also leading on significant strikes 25-10 and total strikes 89-16. Urbina attempted three submission attempts—all unsuccessful—but it demonstrated that Fabinski consistently puts himself in danger of being submitted, and is far too comfortable with leaving his neck open. Urbina is far from an impressive opponent, as he went 1-2 in the UFC before being released in 2016.
After starting out 2-0 with the UFC in 2015, Fabinski took nearly three years off before returning to the Octagon in 2018. He did have a fight scheduled in 2016, but withdrew due to injury and never booked anything in 2017. When his third UFC match finally came to fruition, Fabinski took on Emil Meek, who came into the fight 1-1 in the UFC and fresh off a decision loss to Kamaru Usman. Fabinski was able to execute his grappling heavy game plan once again, with a near carbon copy of the statsheet from his previous bout. He again landed six takedowns—this time on nine attempts—racked up another 13 minutes of control time, and came out ahead on significant strikes 35-21 and total strikes 72-69. Meek finished with one official, but unsuccessful submission attempt. Similar to Fabinski’s first two opponents, Meek has struggled mightily in the UFC, as he ended up going 1-3 with the organization.
Fabinski then took on 37-year-old UFC veteran and submission specialist, Michel Prazeres, who entered with a 9-2 UFC record. Prazeres dropped Fabinski 10 seconds into the fight with a clean overhand right cross. Prazeres jumped on top and looked to end the fight with ground and pound as Fabinski attempted to get back to his feet. Prazeres returned him to the mat once and then finished things with a Guillotine Submission as Fabinski attempted to get up for the second time. So it was actually an offensive Guillotine and not a defensive Guillotine that ended this fight for the record.
Following his first loss in the UFC, Fabinski took a year and a half off before moving back up to 185 lb and accepting a fight against Darren Stewart inside of the Cage Warriors organization, which was still running at the time while the UFC was shut down due to COVID. Stewart split open Fabinski’s head with a slicing elbow in the first round as Fabinski went to work with his normal smothering game plan, but it didn’t end up having a major impact on the fight, and Fabinski cruised to a grappling-heavy decision. Stewart came into that fight 4-4 in the UFC, but represented Fabinski’s toughest win to date.
Staying in the 185 lb division, we most recently saw Fabinski take on a submission specialist in Andre Muniz, and for the third time in his career, Fabinski was submitted in the first round. As he generally does, Fabinski shot for a takedown immediately in the first round, but Muniz was able to stuff his initial attempt and then actually pulled Guillotine after a couple of minutes pressed up against the cage. Fabinski survived the initial Guillotine attempt, however, Muniz transitioned to an Armbar and quickly got a tap.
After getting submitted in the first round in two of his last three fights, it will be interesting to see if Fabinski changes anything in his approach as he now goes against the third submission specialist in his last four fights. So far he has approached every fight the exact same way, so it’s hard to see him completely changing things at this point in his career.
Gerald Meerschaert
13th UFC Fight (6-6)Coming off back-to-back first round KO losses in just a combined 91 seconds of fight time, Meerschaert has now lost three of his last four fights and five of his last seven. He started off decently in the UFC, after joining the organization in 2016 and winning four of his first five fights. All five of those fights ended in the first two rounds, with Meerschaert exploding onto the UFC scene with a pair of first round submission wins, followed by a R2 KO loss against Thiago Santos. Meerschaert then landed a second round KO of his own, followed up by a submission win, also in round two. That’s when things got rocky.
Meerschaert was submitted by Jack Hermansson in the first round of a 2018 match, before losing a decision to Kevin Holland in his next fight. He rebounded with a R3 Guillotine Submission win over Trevin Giles in 2019, but then lost a decision to Eryk Anders later that year. Meerschaert started 2020 off well with another third round submission win, but closed it out with the two quick KO losses against Ian Heinisch and Khamzat Chimaev.
Looking more closely at his last three fights, Meerschaert outlanded Deron Winn 86-53 in significant strikes, in what was his last victory. Even though Winn’s background is entirely based in wrestling, he didn’t want to go to the ground due to Meerschaert’s dangerous guard. So despite being at a 7” height and reach disadvantage, Winn looked to keep the fight on the feet. For context, Winn notably landed 12 takedowns in his next fight. Despite Winn’s desire to keep the fight standing up, Meerschaert was able to get the fight to the ground through striking, as he landed a knockdown in R3. He then immediately grabbed Winn’s neck and submitted him midway through the third round, thus justifying Winn’s concern with going to the ground in the first place. In hindsight, that was just a terrible matchup for Winn as he’s way too short to compete in the stand-up game, but had his wrestling strength neutralized by the threat of a Meerschaert submission.
Meerschaert then took on Ian Heinisch, and curiously looked to stand and trade early, opposed to looking for the takedown. That proved to be a flawed strategy as Heinisch dropped Meerschaert a minute into the first round and then finished him with ground and pound as Meerschaert shelled up. Chimaev saw that quick finish and told Heinisch to hold his beer while he topped it, dropping Meerschaert with a perfect right cross in just 17 seconds this past September. [We miss you Chimaev].
No one has taken Meerschaert down more than once in the UFC, but eight of his 12 opponents have achieved that number. Interestingly, six of those eight went on to lose the fight, although that really just supports the concept that Meerschaert has looked most vulnerable to knock out threats opposed to wrestlers in the UFC. He has been submitted more times (8) than knocked out in his career (3), but only one of those submissions came in the UFC, while all three of the knockouts have. Meerschaert fought at 170 lb early in his pro career, but transitioned to 185 lb in 2013, where he’s stayed since.
Of Meerschaert’s 31 career wins, 23 have come by submission, while just six have ended in KOs, and only two have come by decision. His most recent decision win was all the way back in 2013. He notably has five wins by Guillotine Choke, which could come in handy here, and two wins by Armbar (how Fabinkski lost his last fight). Looking at his 14 career losses, three have come by KO, eight have been by submission, and three have gone the distance. Amazingly, only five of his 45 career fights have made it to the judges and only two of his 12 matches in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Meerschaert will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Meerschaert’s chin looks to be completely shot, as a stiff breeze has the potential to knock him over the way things have been going, but Fabinski is not really a threat to knock opponents out, with his last KO coming all the way back in 2014. He’s mostly just looking to smother his opponents for 15 minutes while mixing in some ground and pound. If history is of any indication, this fight will end in one of two ways—either a decision win for Fabinski or a R1 submission win for Meerschaert. Fabinksi will give Meerschaert ample opportunity to hunt for submissions throughout the fight and we like Meerschaert’s chances to capitalize. Fabinski has really struggled against submission specialists and Meerschaert is a BJJ black belt. In the end, it will likely come down to whether or not Fabinski can slip his head out of multiple dangerous submission opportunities. So regardless of which fighter you go with, expect to be holding your breath every time Meerschaert gets a hold of Fabinski’s neck.
There isn’t as much value as we would like in Fabinski’s decision line at +150, or Meerschaert’s submission line at +250, but the latter is our preferred play here. You can also consider “Meerschaert Wins by R1 Submission” at +600.
DFS Implications:
Generally speaking, when either of these two guys are in a fight, the winner of the match typically scores well in DFS. Here are the DraftKings scores of the winners in Fabinski’s last five UFC fights: 95, 115, 105, 107, and 131. And here are the scores of the winners in Meerschaert’s last five fights: 127, 109, 95, 56, 77. So, of those 10 scores there was only one complete dud, which was when Eryk Anders beat Meerschaert in a decision. There was also a flukey 77 point R3 submission win for Meerschaert against Giles in a pretty even grappling heavy fight back in 2019. The other eight scores were all 95 or above.
The reason that the winner in Fabinski’s fights always scores well is that all of his fights have been completely one sided. Either his opponent gets an immediate submission, or he dominates the entire fight on the ground and scores double digit amounts of control time. Fabinski really needs that complete domination to score well, as he doesn’t land much volume and hasn’t finished anyone in seven years. With that said, he’s really good at dominating fights as long as he doesn’t get submitted. Because he’s not much of a threat to finish fights, you’re relying on the accumulation of grappling stats for him to score well, which lends itself to scoring much higher on DraftKings. Therefore it’s much harder for him to do well on FanDuel and he’s essentially a DraftKings specific play. His only win to score well on both sites was in his UFC debut, where he noticed 10 takedowns, along with multiple takedowns defended, and scored 117 points on FanDuel and 131 points on DraftKings. His most recent two wins scored 107 and 105 points on DraftKings, but just 71 and 77 points on FanDuel. Meerschaert notably has just a 46% takedown defense, so a takedown explosion is certainly possible. The odds suggest Fabinski has a 51% chance to win this fight and a 17% chance to get it done early.
Meerschaert’s only two wins in his last seven fights have both come in the third round, so they’ve only scored 95 and 77 DraftKings points, which could help to keep his ownership slightly lower. Amazingly, the significant striking total in his fight against Giles was just 8 to 6 despite the fight lasting nearly 12 minutes—which is why he scored just 77 points despite getting a finish. This looks like a great bounce back spot for Meerschaert to get a first round submission win. He looks solid on both sites, but like an especially good play on FanDuel where he’s relatively cheaper and can score from takedowns defended as well as submission attempts. We like him as a low-owned MVP option over there, and he definitely has the potential to be the highest scorer on the slate. The odds imply Meerschaert has a 33% chance to get a finish, with a 13% chance it comes in R1. We’ll take the over on both.
Fight #8
Lupita “Loopy” Godinez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Godinez comes into the UFC with a short yet perfect 5-0 pro record. Four of those fights ended in decisions, along with one TKO from submission to punches in the first round of her second pro fight. In a 2019 match, she came close to getting a knockout as she dropped her opponent just as the third round ended. The broadcast team even thought she had landed a KO, but it turned out the clock ran out before the fight could be stopped, so it went down as a decision. Godinez’s last two decisions are listed as five round fights, but her second most recent match was actually changed to three rounds just before the fight, due to a late opponent change and apparently no one picked up on that.
In her last outing, she took on Crystal Vanessa Demopoulos in a five round LFA Strawweight Championship fight Godinez started off the fight fast, showing off her crisp boxing skills. She later dropped Demopoulos in R4 and Demopoulos looked lost for a few seconds. Godinez also showed her awareness to stay out of danger against the submission specialist in Demopoulos, and went on to win a decision in a hard fought brawl that left both of their faces split open.
In her fight prior to that, Godinez took on a pure striker in Lindsay Garbatt, and showed she can adjust her game plan based on her opponent. While Godinez looked only to strike in her other two most recent fights, she actually had no problem spending time grappling in this match, as she went 4 for 5 on takedowns. However, now that she’s facing another grappler in her upcoming debut, don’t expect her to want to take the fight to the ground.
Godinez appears to have the power and technical skills to finish opponents, but at just 5’2” it’s been a little harder for her to close the distance against taller opponents and she’ll be going against a taller, longer Jessica Penne in her next match.
Jessica Penne
5th UFC Fight (1-3)A former Invicta champion and BJJ black belt, Penne started her pro career at Strawweight, but moved down to Atomweight in 2012, where she went 3-1, before moving back up to Strawweight in 2014 when she went on The Ultimate Fighter. Penne was eventually defeated on TUF by Carla Esparza before making it to the finals, so none of those TUF matches show up on her pro record, as everything before the finals is counted as an exhibition match. Despite her disappointing finish on TUF, Penne was brought into the UFC following the loss to Esparza.
In her 2014 UFC debut, Penne took on Randa Markos, who was also making her UFC debut. Markos outlanded Penne 55-39 in significant strikes, but Penne led in total strikes 94-76, in takedowns 4-1 and amassed nearly seven minutes of control time on her way to a split decision win. Since that fight, Markos has fought 15 times to Penne’s three.
Curiously, the UFC thought enough of the split decision win in her debut to give Penne a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her next match, presumably based largely on her previous achievements in Invicta and probably also due to a lack of options in the Women’s Strawweight division. Penne didn’t look even remotely ready for that fight and went 0 for 11 on takedowns and was outlanded 126-25 in significant strikes and 162-28 in total strikes. Jedrzejczyk split Penne’s nose wide open early in the match. nearly ending the fight at multiple points in the second round. By the third round, Penne looked like an extra on a slasher set as she painted the Octagon with her DNA. Marc Goddard stopped the fight after Penne stopped fighting back as she shelled up on the cage late in the third round.
Seemingly content with relegating Penne to punching bag status, the UFC next paired her up with Jessica Andrade, after giving Penne a year off to recover from the traumatizing beating she took against Jedrzejczyk. Once again Penne absorbed a life shortening assault, as she was again massively outlanded 117-27 in significant strikes and 118-28 in total strikes, while putting up another takedown donut on six attempts. It almost seems like Invicta was talking shit to the UFC about how good Penne was and the UFC made it their mission to break her. Andrade wasted no time in the match, turning the volume up to 11 early in the opening round as she threw flurries of strikes. The fight was eventually stopped in the second round, as Penne had no answer for the striking dominance of Andrade and looked completely overwhelmed in the match.
Possibly realizing they had broken this poor girl, the UFC next paired Penne up a less soul-shattering opponent in Danielle Taylor, who came into the fight 1-1 in the UFC with a pair of decisions. In a close fight, Taylor narrowly outlanded Penne 72-69 in significant strikes and Penne finally landed one takedown on two attempts after going 0 for 17 in her last two fights. Taylor went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Following her third straight UFC loss, Penne hasn’t fought since April 2017. She was booked against Jodie Esquibel twice in 2019, but Penne withdrew from each citing injuries. She was then scheduled to fight Hannah Goldy just three weeks ago but Goldy tested positive for COVID. That matchup was rebooked for this upcoming card, but Goldy withdrew once again and Godinez stepped in on April first. After four years away, it will be important to monitor how Penne looks at weigh-ins.
Prior to joining the UFC, Penne had a history of finishing fights early—the good way—with seven submission victories to go along with a pair of knockouts. Only three of her 12 career wins have come at the hands of the judges. Six of her seven submission wins notably came in the first two rounds. Prior to her two KO losses in the UFC, she had only been finished once in her career, which resulted from a fourth round Armbar Submission at the hands of current UFC fighter Michelle Waterson back in their Invicta days in 2013.
Fight Prediction:
Penne will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, but Godinez is 9 years younger than the 38-year-old Penne.
Penne seems to perform decently when she’s not being blitzed with punches, as she was against Andrade and Jedrzejczyk. Only one of her career losses has come before the third round and she easily could have quit at multiple points in her two UFC KO losses, but at least attempted to toughen them out.
Godinez is a far superior striker to Penne, but throws more 2-3 punch combinations opposed to the gatling gun style attacks of Andrade and Jedrzejczyk. That will make it tougher to put Penne away simply by wearing her down and Godinez will really need to land some clean shots if she wants to get a finish here. She certainly has the ability to do so, with very strong boxing skills, but her height and reach disadvantages are definitely of some concern. Once Godinez gets close enough to strike it will mean she’s also within grappling range for Penne, so she won’t have the luxury of picking her apart from the outside.
Penne will be looking to get the fight to the ground, so look for her to engage in the clinch as Godinez steps in to strike. Coming off a four year layoff and now 38 years old, it’s possible that Penne has nothing left, which could result in a more one-sided affair, but we all saw how that worked out for Danho last week—who apparently did take off his entire mid 30’s to improve. This is another one of those fights that will come down to whether it stays standing up or goes down to the mat. As long as Godinez can keep it standing, look for her to dominate the striking and lock in a decision win with the potential for a finish. However, if it gets to the mat Penne will have the grappling advantage and is also a threat to end it with a submission. Godinez’s takedown defense looked solid in her last match, but we’ve yet to see how it holds up on the UFC level. We like Godinez to win a decision here.
At -120, it’s hard to get excited about Godinez’s decision line, so we’d recommend either passing on this spot or taking a shot at some longer odds. The four dart throws worth considering are “Godinez Wins by KO” at +460, “Godinez Wins by R1 KO” at +1100, “Godinez Wins by R3 KO” at +1900 and “Penne Wins by Submission” at +800. If you really feel like lighting money on money check out “Penne Wins by R2 Submission” at +3000.
DFS Implications:
Godinez is a solid striker looking to make a name for herself in her UFC debut. While she hasn’t proven herself to be a reliable finisher, she certainly has the ability to knock opponents out. Coming in as a -275 favorite, she’s getting a ton of respect from the oddsmakers for a fighter making her UFC debut with just five pro fights to her name. The vast majority of the field will balk at her price tag, which really leads to the primary reason you should consider playing her in tournaments—ownership. Despite having an implied 70% chance of winning the fight, we project her to be around 20% owned. That presents a major leverage opportunity for tournaments and it’s easy to end up with slightly more exposure than the field, while still not selling the farm. The most likely outcome is still for the fight to end in a decision, which would go down as a bust for her in tournaments, but the odds suggest she does have a 19% chance to finish the fight early. Penne has notably gone 1 for 19 on takedown attempts in her last three fights, so Godinez has the strong potential to boost her score with takedowns defended on FanDuel, making her a more interesting play over there.
It’s hard to see Penne winning this fight if it remains on the feet, so her path to victory is getting it to the mat and winning a grappling heavy decision or landing a submission. The odds suggest she has a 28% chance to win, a 10% chance to get it done early and just a 6% chance that she wins in the first round. After losing her last three fights and then taking four years off, her ownership should be extremely low, making her somewhat appealing as a hail mary salary saver in tournaments. While it doesn’t appear like a good matchup for her to get a finish, you never know how an opponent will respond in their UFC debut. It makes sense to have some small level of exposure here, especially on DraftKings where her grappling stats will score better.
Fight #7
Alexandr Romanov
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Rumbling his way into this match with a perfect 13-0 pro record and 2-0 in the UFC, “King Kong” takes no prisoners and requires no judges. All 13 of his wins have come early, mostly by decapitation and dismemberment. He has five KOs and eight submission victories, winning his last battle with an ultra rare Forearm Choke, showing just how much of a savage he really is. The unconscious remains he left strewn on the mat once belonged to Marcos Rogerio de Lima (6-4 in the UFC). Romanov got that fight to the ground just 10 seconds into the first round, but De Lima was able to get back to his feet. Romanov didn’t appear to want to stand and trade and went for another takedown shortly after. He relentlessly pursued it until he succeeded and then easily finished De Lima on the ground. Ten of Romanov’s 13 matches have ended in the first round, with six lasting less than half a round. He’s submitted his last three and five of his last six opponents.
Prior to the recent submission win, Romanov went full primate on hypnotically gelatinous Roque Martinez—literally playing him like a drum while he waved a banana around—before eventually choking him out in the second round. That fight marked the debut for each fighter, but Martinez is now 0-2 in the UFC following a decision loss to Don'Tale Mayes.
We did see Romanov have to defend some wrestling prior to joining the UFC when he fought Sultan Murtazaliev. Romanov was also notably 29 lb larger than Murtazaliev in the fight. In the first round Murtazaliev was able to take Romanov down, but only keep him there for 40 seconds before Romanov was able to get back up. Romanov dominated the remainder of the fight, but was notably docked a point for an illegal shot to the back of the head. To which Romanov responded, What are points? This was only one of Romanov’s two career fights to make it to the third round and he looked visibly exhausted by the start of that period. Nevertheless he was able to get a TKO stoppage as he laid heavy ground and pound on his opponent. That was Romanov’s longest career fight, lasting 12 minutes and 17 seconds.
This next fight will easily be Romanov’s toughest test to date, and as he squares off against another monster in Juan Espino.
Juan Espino
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Following a first round submission win in his 2018 UFC debut, Espino was forced to take 22 months off due to "a series of unsuccessful surgeries on his hand." Despite the layoff and nearing his 40th birthday, Espino didn’t miss a beat in his second UFC fight as he easily man-handled Jeff Hughes, landing another first round submission. Hughes was notably able to stand up twice as Espino tried to keep him down, but it was essentially one long sequence of chain wrestling.
A rare heavyweight submission specialist, Espino only has one knockout win to his name, but has seven victories by submission. While Espino can’t claim a 100% finish rate like Romanov can, as he’s has fought to two decisions, his other nine matches all ended in the first round, including first round submission wins in five of his last six fights. Despite his age, he only has 11 pro fights under his belt and he’s only lost one of those. That loss came in a 2011 nine second R1 KO against 22-1 Vitaly Minakov, a previous Bellator Heavyweight champion.
Espino has yet to face an opponent with a win in the UFC. His win in his debut came against Justin Frazier who was also making his debut and was released following the loss. Most recently Espino defeated a terrible Jeff Hughes who is 0-3 with a No Contest in the UFC.
Fight Prediction:
Espino will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, but Roman is 10 years younger than the 40-year-old Espino.
The UFC’s version of Godzilla vs. Kong, this sets up as the most anticipated fight on the card. Like Shaq in the early 90s, these two are the rare threat to actually break the equipment as they body slam each other through the Octagon and throw car wreck levels of force up against the side of the cage. The maintenance crew better batten down the hatches and reinforce the fighting surface if they want to keep these two monsters contained. You will not want to miss this war.
Both of these oversized grapplers have faced traditional stand-up striking opponents in their first two UFC fights, so we haven’t seen either wrestle defensively in the UFC. However, we did see Romanov get taken down once in the first round of a 2018 fight, and he was able to get back up in just 40 seconds.
Romanov looks to rely more on brute strength and is the much more violent fighter, while Espino has decent speed and movement for a Heavyweight. Neither guy has faced much opposition in their career, so it’s hard to know how they’ll react. If they prove to be too evenly matched, it’s possible, albeit unlikely that we see a stalemate. It’s also possible Espino attempts to tire Romanov out by circling the Octagon early on and avoiding him when he’s the most dangerous (early on). All eight of Espino’s career finishes have come in the first round, as have 10 of Romanov’s 13 career wins. These two have combined to see the second round just five times in 24 pro fights.
Romanov has a better chance to win this fight as he’s both a submission and striking threat, whereas Espino is a more one dimensional submission specialist. However, both guys are extremely dangerous and capable of finishing the other. Espino’s grappling skills likely lower the chances that Romanov finishes this one with a submission. As long as Romanov can avoid getting submitted by Espino in the first round, we think he gets a finish of his own in the first 10 minutes—likely by R1 TKO stoppage resulting from ground and pound as Espino covers up.
There are a lot of ways you can bet this fight to cover the most likely potential outcomes (Espino R1 Sub or Romanov R1/R2 KO/SUB). However, our preferred lines are “Romanov Wins in R1 or R2” +165, “Espino Wins by R1 Submission” at +850, “Romanov Wins by R1 KO” at +750, and “Fight Ends with R1 Submission” at +390. “Romanov Wins by KO” at +300 and “Romanov Wins by R2 KO” at +1000 are also in play.
DFS Implications:
Both of these fighters will be extremely popular in DFS, as they should be, after flawless starts to their respective UFC careers. At their affordable price tags—especially Espino’s—it’s hard to see the winner of this fight not being a top scorer on the slate, but hey, crazy things happen every week.
Romanov comes in as the favorite and is priced accordingly. He’s landed six takedowns in under three rounds of action in his first two fights, while tacking on three submission attempts and 61 significant strikes—55 of those came in his debut while he played the bongos on Martinez’s head. Romanov’s odds suggest he has a 55% chance to win the fight, a 42% chance to get it done early and an 18% chance it comes in R1. After being insanely high owned on DraftKings in his last fight, where 74% of the field played him on a 10 fight card, we expect Espino to siphon off a portion of that ownership in this one. Still, look for Romanov to be one of, if not the most popular fighter on the slate. Romanov is one of our favorite plays on the card.
Espino has landed seven takedowns in less than two rounds of action, while also managing three submission attempts in those two fights. He’s only landed 32 combined significant strikes, but he’s also impressively only absorbed a total of four. He offers very little in the striking department compared to Romanov, so unless he can drag it out to a grappling heavy decision, he’s entirely reliant on landing a submission to win the fight. His odds imply he has a 45% chance to win the fight, a 26% chance to get it done early and a 12% chance to get it done in R1. We project him to be the highest owned underdog on the card, so if you fade him and he wins you may be drawing dead, but if he loses, it presents a solid leverage opportunity.
Fight #6
Tracy Cortez
4th UFC Fight (3-0)After winning her last two matches at 135 lb, Cortez now drops back down to 125 lb where she fought her first seven pro fights. Cortez’s only career loss resulted from a R2 Guillotine Submission in her 2017 pro debut. Since then, she’s won eight straight fights with six decision wins, a R2 KO and a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. Her last four fights have all gone to the judges however.
Cortez has averaged a massive 62.5% amount of control time across her first two UFC fights. To put that into context, Kamaru Usman averages 48.5%. With a wrestling heavy approach, Cortez averages three takedowns per 15 minutes, but just an average of 3.37 significant strikes landed per minute.
Considering Cortez is moving down a weight class, it will be extra important to monitor her during weigh-ins.
UPDATE: Cortez was last to weigh in and initially missed by 1 pound, but brought that down to a half pound with the towel/hoop/cage or whatever we’re calling it. She looked pretty drained after what appears to be a tough weight cut.
Justine Kish
7th UFC Fight (3-3)After fighting to seven straight decisions, and having lost two of her last three, Kish came into her last fight against Sabina Mazo very aggressive. She pushed the pace throughout the match in a close, high-paced striking battle, but was outlanded by Mazo 131-93 in significant strikes and then submitted in the third round via Rear-Naked Choke after getting dropped with a head kick. Despite coming out overall behind on strikes, it certainly appeared like Kish had a chance to win the fight prior to the finish.
Kish started her pro career in 2010 at Flyweight (125 lb), but quickly dropped all the way down to Strawweight (115 lb) in 2014, where she fought her first three UFC fights. Following a loss to Felice Herrig in 2017, Kish moved back up to 125 lb, where she’s since gone 1-2. She was taken down four times in her three UFC Strawweight fights, but none of her Flyweight opponents have attempted a takedown in her last three fights. Kish does have six takedowns of her own in her six UFC fights, but three of those came in her 2016 debut and she only has two takedowns in her last four fights. She’s really more of a striker than a grappler.
After losing three of her last four fights, you would have to imagine Kish comes into this one pretty desperate for a win. However, after getting submitted by a striker in her last match, she could also come in a little more cautiously against a solid wrestler in Cortez.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5”, but Cortez will have a 1” reach advantage.
Kish throws more volume than Cortez, but Cortez is the superior wrestler and we’re looking for her to try and get Kish down and keep her there. Cortez’s last five fights have all ended in decision, and prior to her recent submission loss, Kish had fought to seven straight decisions as well. This fight seems destined to go the distance, but if it does end early, look for Cortez to end it with a Rear-Naked Choke submission. UPDATE: After seeing both ladies on the scales, we think Kish has more of a chance than originally thought. Cortez’s entire game plan relies on smothering her opponents for 15 minutes with relentless wrestling. Following a tough weight cut, she may not have the gas tank to do that here, which makes Kish far more interesting.
There’s not much value on the Cortez side, but we like Kish’s moneyline at +280 and ITD line at +950. Looking for a longer shot? Check out her R3 win line at +4200, which perfectly plays into the tough weight cut narrative.
DFS Implications:
Cortez is a DraftKings specific play where she can score from her massive amounts of control time. She would need a finish to return value on FanDuel at her high price, and this is the most likely fight on the card to end in a decision according to the odds, so don’t play her over there. She was notably just 8% owned at the same DraftKings price ($9,000) the last time she fought, but that was also under the old rules where her debut scored just 86 points instead of 103 under the current scoring system. We expect her ownership to go up based on the new scoring system, but she’ll still go relatively low owned. The odds imply she has a 72% chance to win the fight, but just a 17% chance to end it early and only an 8% chance to get it done in the first round. UPDATE: We’re far less excited about playing Cortez following weigh-ins.
Kish has never been one to score well in DFS. Her best career performance was when she landed three takedowns in her 2016 UFC debut and totaled 83 DraftKings points. Since then she’s scored 77, 26, 38, 62 and 43. Her ideal scenario to hit her ceiling would be a high-paced striking battle, which this doesn’t set up well for. The only thing she really has going for her is desperation and low ownership, but she looks like a fade to us. She likely needs a finish to score well and the odds suggest she has just an 11% chance to accomplish that. UPDATE: Kish is still unlikely to score well, but following weigh-ins there’s at least a small chance Cortez gasses out late and Kish can step in for a late finish, or at least win a decision.
Fight #5
Luis Pena
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Coming off a R3 Guillotine Submission loss to Khama Worthy, four of Pena’s last six fights have ended in decisions. Prior to the finish, Worthy was ahead 55-38 on significant strikes, but Pena had landed three takedowns and over four minutes of control time in what looked like a close fight.
Pena won his 2018 UFC debut with a R1 Guillotine Choke, but since then his only finish came in a 2019 R3 KO over a washed up Matt Wiman. Pena only has 11 pro fights to his name, which he’s won eight of. Six of those eight wins came early, with two KOs and four submissions. The only time he’s ever been finished early himself came in his last fight when he was submitted in the third round. He will be the much taller fighter here, so it will be interesting to see how effective he can be taking advantage of that, and how that impacts the takedown attempts of Munoz.
Pena’s last six fights have all made it to the third round and Pena has done a good job of controlling opponents as he’s averaged 43.5% control time so far in the UFC. With a wrestling background, all of his fights have made it to the mat at some point.
Alexander Munoz
2nd UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off his first career loss in seven pro fights, Munhoz dropped his UFC debut to Nasrat Haqparast in an August 2020 decision. Munoz went 1 for 8 on his takedown attempts against Haqparast’s elite 84% takedown defense. The one takedown he landed marks the only time Haqparast has been taken down in his last six UFC fights. With a background in wrestling, the matchup against a pure striker with rock solid takedown defense looked like a tough one for Munhoz going in.
After nearly a two year layoff following his fourth pro fight, Munoz made an appearance on DWCS back in 2018, in sort of a unique situation. He took on a wrestler in 14-1 Nick Newell, who was born with only a partial left arm. Nevertheless, Newell showed he’s a decent wrestler, however, Munoz went on to win a decision. It wasn’t enough to get a UFC contract though, and Munoz was forced to fight one more match outside of the UFC before eventually getting called up to the big show last Summer.
Munoz’s last four fights have all gone the distance, after his first three all ended in round one. However, those finishes notably came against opponents who entered with records of 0-2, 2-0, and 1-1.
Fight Prediction:
Pena will have a massive 6” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters have a background in wrestling, which generally means one of two things—either we’ll see a lot of wrestling, or a 100% striking battle with neither willing to test the other on the mat. We expect the former, as Munoz will want to incorporate more wrestling in his second UFC fight after losing a striking battle in his debut and Pena is always looking to get fights to the mat. With the majority of this fight likely to play out on the ground, we expect to see a close grappling heavy decision that could go either way. Both guys are coming off a loss and will be hungry for a win here, and Pena’s size advantage could prove to be too much to overcome.
Our favorite bet here is that the “Fight Ends in a Decision” at -146. If you want to take a stab at something, look at “Fight Ends in R3 Submission” at +1400.
DFS Implications:
In Pena’s three UFC losses (two decisions & R3 submission), his opponents have scored 65, 75 and 81 DraftKings points. In his four wins, Pena has scored 115, 77, 106, and 72. His two big scores have resulted from finishes, while both of his decision wins only scored in the 70s. Priced at $8,700/$19, it appears Pena needs another finish to return value in DFS. The odds imply he has a 21% chance to get it done, with a 10% chance it comes in R1. However, it looks like a tough spot for a finish against a solid wrestler in Munhoz who’s only career loss came in his recent decision and we don’t see Pena putting on such a dominating grappling performance that he scores well in a decision.
At his cheap price tag, it’s possible a wrestling heavy decision win could score well enough for Munoz to be useful, so he’s more interesting of a DFS play to us than Pena. His finishing chances are also nearly as high as Pena’s with implied chances of 18% to end things early and 8% for a R1 win. While we don’t love this spot for Munhoz, as Pena is too good of a wrestler for a one-sided domination, it’s still a better matchup than he had in his last fight. Pena also notably has just a 46% takedown defense, so Munhoz could easily land 4+ takedowns.
Fight #4
Abdul Razak Alhassan
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Now moving up to 185 lb at 35 years old, coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career and looking like he was hit with a cattle prod in his recent KO loss—which was the first time he’s ever been finished—it’s fair to wonder how much Alhassan has left. His last win was nearly three years ago, and who knows what his training was like during his two years away.
He sort of reassembled his former self in the first round of the Lazzez fight (his first fight back), but looked to run out of gas early and Lazzez dominated the fight from that point on. Then things got much worse, as Khaos Williams sent him into another dimension with a single right cross this past November. Bouncing back from violent KOs like that is typically a challenge for any fighter, let alone one with this much baggage.
After missing weight in his last two fights at 170 lb, Alhassan’s now moving back up to 185 lb, where he last fought in 2016. In his career, he’s fought at 170 lb (5-3), 175 lb (1-0) 180 lb (1-0), 185 lb (2-0) and 190 lb (1-0). It will be essential to monitor Alhassan closely at weigh-ins. UPDATE: He looked fine, but not anything to get excited about.
Jacob Malkoun
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off an 18 second KO loss in his UFC debut against Phil Hawes, Malkoun literally can’t perform any worse in this fight after failing to land a single strike in that match.
After just going pro in 2017, Malkoun only has five fights on his record but he won the first four. Three of those made it to a third round, with two ending in decisions. He does have a pair of knockouts, with one coming in round one and the other in round three, but has never submitted anyone. He looks like he wears on his opponents as fights go on, but doesn’t look very explosive. When conscious, he shoots for a decent number of takedowns, so he’s got that going for him.
A training partner of Robert Whittaker, Malkoun was actually in Whittaker’s corner for his fight against Till. Malkoun had a short stint in pro boxing, winning all three of his matches. He also has wrestling experience if this fight ends up on the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Alhassan will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach. Malkoun is notably 10 years younger than Alhassan.
In a battle of the paper chins, on one side we have Abdul Razak Alhassan, who was knocked out just 30 seconds into his last fight, and on the other we have Jacob Malkoun who lasted a whole 18 seconds in his recent UFC debut. Alhassan is a well known R1 or bust fighter, but we don’t really know what Malkoun is yet. He’s only had five pro fights (4-1), so he’s still extremely green. It does appear that the longer fights go, the better he does and he’s shown he has the cardio to go three rounds as three of his first four fights made it to the third round, and two went the distance. In his two pre-UFC decisions, he notably went 8 for 14 on takedown attempts. So coming off a violent KO loss it would make a ton of sense for him to resort to his wrestling. We expect this fight to either end with a R1 KO for Alhassan, or a late KO/decision win for Malkoun.
The lines worth considering are “Alhassan Wins by R1 KO” at +135, “Malkoun Wins by KO” at +700, “Malkoun Wins by R3 KO” at +3600 or “Malkoun Wins by Decision” at +500.
DFS Implications:
While both of these fighters come in littered with red flags, we can’t ignore the fact that this fight is tied for the most likely on the slate to end early according to the odds. It’s hard to imagine both of these two surviving three rounds, but you never know. If they both get gassed that could easily happen.
Alhassan has yet to regain the form that made him a name in the UFC prior to an extended layoff from 2018-2020, and now at 35 years old and 3+ years removed since his last knockout victory, it’s fair to start wondering if he ever will. Yes, his first 10 career wins all came by R1 KO, but at what point do you stop chasing ghosts? The fact that he’s moving back up to 185 lb for the first time since 2016 is certainly interesting, although after missing weight in both of his last two fights, it’s not entirely surprising. Despite missing weight for his last fight AND coming off a loss, Alhassan was absurdly 58% owned in that match as the field apparently remains enamored with his 10 R1 KO wins from earlier in his career. After seeing him get violently cadavered, we expect that number to go down some, but this guy is always owned more than he should be. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to finish the fight early and a 32% chance to win in R1. It’s interesting to see such a gap between those numbers considering he’s never won a fight outside of the first round. It’s a shame he’s not facing a better opponent or else this would be an easy fade.
Malkoun has yet to take the plastic off his scoresheet as he failed to land a strike, or any other offensive stat, in his embarrassing UFC debut. Posting an impressive 0.0 score, his ownership should come in very low, which makes him at least of some interest when you consider the odds that this fight ends early. It should be easy to leverage the field while not going crazy on him. The odds suggest he has a 28% chance to win the fight, a 15% chance to end it early and a 6% chance to win in the first round. A wrestling heavy decision win could easily score well enough at his price to be useful, so you shouldn’t completely rule him out as a tournament play.
Fight #3
Andrei Arlovski
35th UFC Fight (19-14, NC)Arlovski was recently submitted for just the second time in his distinguished 22 year pro career in a match against one of the top Heavyweight prospects in Tom Aspinall. The fight looked close to being stopped in the opening minutes as Aspinall landed a whirlwind of sledge hammers on Arlovski, but the veteran was able to show his toughness and narrowly survive the assault. The remainder of the round played out at a slower pace, with some time spent in the clinch, as Apinall was forced to see a second round for the first time in the UFC and just the third time in 12 pro fights. Seemingly regrouping after the end of the round, Aspinall appeared to realize that Arlovski wasn’t going to be an easy opponent to knock out, so he shot for a takedown early in R2 and immediately took the back and landed a Rear-Naked Choke from a kneeling position to the seated Arlovski. Aspinall is notably a BJJ black belt, but rarely needs to show it with just one 2015 submission win on his record. The fact that Arlovski was able to absorb the initial blitz of Aspinall and keep on going, forcing the R1 KO specialist to change his game plan, should tell you everything you need to know about Arlovski’s toughness.
In his last 28 fights, over the course of the last decade, the only people to knock Arlovski out are Stipe Miocic (2016 R1), Alistair Overeem (2016 R2), Francis Ngannou (2017 R1), and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2019 R1). Since the 2017 R1 KO against Ngannou, the only time he’s been knocked out in his last 12 fights was against Rozenstruik. He’s fought to 10 decisions over that same time period leading up to his recent submission loss. Arlovski won half of those decisions, including the last three. While he ended up losing decisions to Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai, both of those fighters notably knocked out Chase Sherman in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
This will amazingly be Arlovski’s 53rd pro fight, although two of those were overturned to “No Contests” so his official record sits at 30-20. Arlovski originally joined the UFC in 2000, but left the organization in 2008, before returning in 2014. He won his first four fights back in 2014 and 2015, including a pair of R1 knockouts, but has since gone 5-10 plus a “No Contest” which was really a decision loss. So in the last five years he only has a 31% win rate, with all five of those wins coming by decision. Six of those 10 losses (11 if you count the NC) have come early, with three R1 KOs (Miocic, Ngannou, Rozenstruik), a R2 KO (Overeem) a R3 Submission (Barnett), and the recent R2 Submission (Aspinall).
Arlovski has really struggled with the top guys in the division, but has been able to take his non-elite opponents to decisions. Sherman clearly doesn’t classify as an elite talent, but Arlovski is notably 42 years old now and eventually he’ll have to start slowing down.
Chase Sherman
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Coming off a win against “Tropical Storm Ike” Villanueva (he’s been downgraded), Sherman originally went 2-5 in the UFC from 2016-2018 before being released late in 2018. He then landed three straight R1 KOs with Square Ring Promotions, before getting called back up to the big show in 2020 for his most recent match against an undersized opponent. Villanueva attempted to move up from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight, but clearly looked like an out of shape 205er that just didn’t cut weight. He tipped the scales as 232 lb, while Sherman came in at 253 lb and had a 3” height advantage. Sherman wore on the smaller, terrible opponent before finishing him early in R2. The second round KO was later overturned and Sherman was suspended for nine months when he tested positive for an illegal estrogen blocker. Sherman now returns from the PED suspension to face a true Heavyweight.
In Sherman’s first seven UFC fights he was knocked out three times, spread out across the three rounds. He also lost a pair of decisions. His only two wins both came in 2017 with a R2 KO followed by a decision victory. It’s now been nearly four years since Sherman beat a true Heavyweight in the UFC. His three first round KOs outside of the UFC in 2018 and 2019 should all be taken with a grain of salt as they came against terrible opponents.
While 18 of Sherman’s 21 pro fights have ended early, 2 of his last 5 UFC fights have gone the distance. He’s the type of Heavyweight that can capitalize on inferior competition but is unlikely to overperform. His only other UFC KO before his last fight was against Rashad Coulter, who has lost four of his last five fights—all by KO.
Fight Prediction:
Sherman will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is 11 years younger than Arlovski.
Anyone chasing Sherman’s last four wins is failing to understand the context. He defeated four ultra low level opponents and now gets one of the longest standing veterans in the game. Sherman has lost his last three UFC fights against actual Heavyweights and we don’t see that changing here. Arlovski is a decision machine at this point in his career, so that’s how we expect this to end, but it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him knock Sherman out, potentially in the later rounds. It’s definitely worth a flyer. With that said, we like Arlovski to win a decision here.
Our favorite line is “Arlovski Wins by Decision” at +170. We also like “Arlovski Wins by KO” at +500 and “Arlovski Wins by R3 KO” at +1900.
DFS Implications:
Arlovski pathetically scored just 44 and 50 DraftKings points in his last two decision wins and appears much more of a threat to ruin his opponents score than actually score well himself. You could argue that he’s in a good leverage spot for tournaments, however, Arlovski hasn’t landed an early win in his last 17 UFC fights and generally lacks the takedown and striking volume to score well in decisions. He did have one flukey performance against Ben Rothwell where he landed 152 significant strikes back in 2019, but generally is a low volume striker who hasn’t landed above 75 significant strikes in his other nine most recent fights. Working in his favor, Sherman absorbs the second highest number of significant strikes on the slate, averaging 5.55/minute. Sherman’s opponents have generally scored decently in victory with DraftKings totals of 75, 113, 102, 89 and 99. Considering Arlovski hasn’t landed a takedown in his last seven fights, it’s still hard to see him returning value in a decision, so he’ll need a finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 22% chance to accomplish that, with a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Sherman has put up big scores in his two R2 KOs with DraftKings scores of 100 and 124, but only scored 75 points in his lone decision win. He has no grappling game to prop up his totals, with zero takedowns in eight UFC fights. In his two decision losses he only scored 40 and 24 points, further reinforcing the idea he needs a finish. Only elite level talent has been able to finish Arlovski lately, which Sherman certainly doesn’t qualify as. This looks like a good sell-high spot on Sherman as many people will surely chase his fraudulent series of knockouts, especially considering his reasonable price tag. For what it’s worth, the odds imply he has a 24% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance to end it in R1. We think both of those numbers are artificially inflated based on recency bias and we’ll take the under.
Fight #2
Jeremy Stephens
35th UFC Fight (15-17, NC)Limping into the late stages of his career, Stephens hasn’t won a fight in over three years, after suffering three straight losses, including two KOs. After enduring his 17th UFC loss in his last fight, he’s now just 15-17 in 33 UFC bouts. He was knocked out in the second round of his most recent fight by Calvin Kattar, who caught him with a clean right cross to split him wide open, halfway through the second round.
Stephens missed weight badly in that last match, tipping the scales at 150.5 lb. When you combine that with the fact that he’s lost his last four matches, it makes some sense why he’s decided to move back up to 155 lb after fighting his last 18 bouts at 145 lb. Stephens originally made the move from Lightweight down to Featherweight back in 2013 after he lost three straight fights at 155 lb. He went 7-8 at 155 lb in his first 15 UFC fights from 2007-2012.
Of Stephens’ 33 UFC fights, 19 have ended in decisions, two have ended by Armbar submission (both in his first six UFC fights), one has ended in a “No Contest” due to an eye poke, and the other 11 have ended with KOs. Not counting the “No Contest” 14 of his last 15 fights have made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a R1 KO loss to Jose Aldo in 2018.
This will be Stephens' 15th year in the UFC and 35th fight with the organization. That type of mileage certainly takes its toll on the human body. It will be important to monitor him at weigh-ins as he’s moving up a weight class. UPDATE: Stephens looked like a dick at weigh-ins/face-offs.
Drakkar Klose
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Now 13 months removed from the first early loss of his career, Klose was knocked out in the second round by Beneil Dariush in his last fight. Prior to that, Klose was 11-1-1 as a pro and on a three fight winning streak in the UFC. He had also fought to eight straight decisions, after winning four of his first five pro fights by KO.
Klose is generally good at slowing down fights as he mixes in grappling, which makes sense when you consider his last 10 fights have all made it out of the first round, with eight going the distance. With that said, Klose hasn’t really been tested by many finishers outside of Beneril Dariush. His UFC wins have come against Devin Powell, who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released, Marc Diakiese, who’s lost four of his last six fights, Lando Vannata, who’s gone 2-4-2 in his last eight fights, Bobby Green, who’s a decision machine that went 1-5-1 from 2014-2019 which is when he fought Klose, and Christos Giagos, who’s 3-2 in the UFC with all of his wins coming by decision. So Klose has really just been grinding out decisions against average talent.
Klose had been scheduled to fight back in February, originally against Jai Herbert, who withdrew, and then against Luis Pena. However, one of Klose’s cornermen tested positive for COVID and he was forced to withdraw. It’s interesting that despite Pena and Klose both being rescheduled for this card, they opted to take on new opponents instead of fighting each other.
While Stephens will be moving back up to 155 lb for the first time since 2012, Klose has spent his entire career at Lightweight.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9”, but Stephens will have a 1” reach advantage.
Each of these fighters are coming off R2 KO losses, so it will be interesting to see how each responds. Stephens fought to a pair of decisions (1-1) following his previous two career KO losses, while Klose had previously never been finished. We often see fighters come in a little more cautiously following a KO loss, but Stephens is sort of a wild man, so who knows. We’d be surprised if Klose came in overly aggressive here. Stephens has lost four straight fights, but those all came against really tough opponents. It will be interesting to see how he looks against a step down in competition, but we think his days are likely numbered. Klose can definitely win this fight as long as his chin grew back, and could even potentially get his first UFC finish. Look for Stephens to push the pace and potentially walk into something. He’s looked especially susceptible to being finished in the second round in his last two fights, although he was able to survive against Rodriguez. With that said it’s still more likely than not this fight ends in a decision as Klose is generally looking to slow the pace of fights.
We like “Klose Wins by Decision” at +210 as the best option. You can also consider “Klose WIns by R2 KO” at +1700, or “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +600.
DFS Implications:
Klose has averaged 78 DraftKings points in his five UFC decision wins and likely needs a finish here to score well. The odds indicate just an 18% likelihood of that happening, with only an 8% chance it comes in the first round. He did put up 98 points in his last decision win. But that came on the back of a career high in significant strikes, two takedowns and nearly five minutes of control time. It’s certainly possible he sets another career best here, but they’re called outlier performances for a reason. While he landed 99 significant strikes in that fight, he never landed more than 68 in his other six fights. He does have 10 takedowns in his last seven fights, so he can bolster his score in the grappling department. And at his cheap price tag, even a decision win that scored in the 90s could be useful, depending on what the other underdogs do.
Stephens is primarily dependent on striking and finishes to score well, as he’s failed to land a takedown in 13 of his last 14 fights. He did, however, land three on Yair Rodriguez on four attempts in his second most recent match. He’s only even attempted one in his other nine most recent fights, but if you go back to 2015, he went 0 for 12 against Max Holloway, and overall he shot for a lot more takedowns early in his career, and he does have a background in wrestling. While he only has three wins in his last 10 fights, Stephens has scored well on DraftKings in all three with totals of 90 (R2 KO), 100 (R2 KO), and 122 (Decision). The decision score looks very flukey as he landed a ludicrous five knockdowns in the fight, and you shouldn’t rely on him scoring well in a decision. In his second most recent decision win he scored just 60 DraftKings points and 74 points on FanDuel. Realistically Stephens needs a finish here to return value. The odds imply he has a 27% chance to finish Klose and a 12% chance it comes in the first round. Also keep in mind, an early second or third round finish still wouldn’t guarantee him a spot in the optimal.
Fight #1
Robert Whittaker
17th UFC Fight (13-3)The former Middleweight champion, Whittaker is coming off a three round decision win over Jared Cannonier. Prior to that match, he had fought in four straight five-round fights, where he won the Middleweight belt against Yoel Romero and then lost it two fights later to Israel Adesayna. His most recent five round fight was a low-volume close decision win over Darren Till last Summer.
In his last fight, Whittaker had Cannonier badly hurt in the first minute of the third round, but couldn’t put him away as Cannonier hung on for dear life and was able to recover. Whittaker went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Whittaker has won 11 of his last 12 fights, with the one loss coming in a R2 KO against Adesayna. Whittaker’s only other career KO loss came in a 2014 R1 KO against Stephen Thompson. He’s also been submitted once, but that was a decade ago in the first round of a 2011 match. He hasn’t lost a decision since 2013, going 7-0 with the judges since then. While 14 of his 22 career wins have come early, his last four wins have all gone the distance, including three that went five full rounds.
Whittaker has a sneaky left jab that he throws from his waist to make it harder to defend. He started his pro career at 170 lb, but moved up to 185 lb in 2014, where he's stayed since. Whittaker notably looked better in his most recent fight, compared to in his July 2020 match against Darren Till.
Kelvin Gastelum
18th UFC Fight (11-6)This will be Gastelum’s sixth five-round fight in the UFC. His first was in the 170 lb division back in 2015, while his most recent four have been at 185 lb. In those five fights, Gastelum is 1-3 plus a “No Contest” (originally a R1 KO win overturned for pot). In his first UFC five-round event, he lost a split decision against Neil Magney in 2015, where Gastelum landed both a pair of knockdowns and takedowns in a low-volume affair. In his second five-round fight, Gastelum knocked out a 40-year-old Vitor Belfort in the first round of a 2017 match, but the results were overturned to a “No Contest” when Gastelum tested positive for pot. Again he landed two knockdowns, this time in under four minutes of action.
Next, he was submitted by Chris Weidman in the third round of a 2017 low-volume five rounder, but Gastelum did land another knockdown in the fight. He bounced back from the loss with a R1 KO of 38-year-old Michael Bisping in his next fight, where he once again landed a knockdown. In his most recent five round fight, he lost a decision to Israel Adesanya in 2019, but that time it was Adesanya landing the knockdowns—putting up a massive total of four in 25 minutes of action.
Gastelum had an impressive run from 2015 to 2018 where he landed eight knockdowns across seven UFC fights, but he’s failed to land a knockdown in his last four bouts.
Coming off a three round decision win, Gastelum amazingly landed as many takedowns in that fight (6) as he had in his previous 12 fights combined. Those six takedowns account for one-third of the 18 takedowns he’s landed in his entire career. He accomplished that feat against Ian Heinisch (60% career takedown defense), who had been taken down four or more times in two of his previous six fights, so it wasn’t completely out of nowhere. Gastelum is now 18 of 46 on takedowns in his UFC career and owns just a 39% takedown accuracy. Largely based on his recent takedown explosion, half of Gastelums career takedowns have come in his last four matches, where he landed one in each of his previous three fights leading up to the six in his last match. Prior to those four fights, he had failed to land a takedown in five straight fights. Looking at his upcoming opponent, only Yoel Romero has landed more than one takedown on Whittaker in his 16 UFC fights, and Whittaker notably has an elite 84% takedown defense.
That recent decision win broke a three fight losing streak for Gastelum, who hadn’t won a fight going back to May 2018. He’s still just 3-4 in his last seven fights, so a win here would notably get him back to .500 in his last eight, while a loss would leave him as a loser in 4 of his last 5 [who said narratives are fair?].
While 10 of his 16 career wins have come early, his last two and four of his last six have ended in decisions. And only one of his last five total fights has ended early. The only two times he’s been finished both came by submission, with a 2020 R1 Heel Hook Submission against Jack Hermansson and a 2017 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke against Chris Weidman. He’s never been knocked out.
Gastelum has fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb in the UFC, where he’s gone 5-1 at 170 lb, including two R1 submission wins, 0-1 at 180 lb Catchweight and 6-4 plus a “No Contest” at 185 lb. His last 170 lb fight came against John Hendricks back in 2016.
Fight Prediction:
Whittaker will have a noticeable 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Whittaker has been the more impressive fighter the last few years, and his record clearly shows it. While he’s not a guy we're overly excited about in general, Gastelum falls even further down the Totem pole, as he’s really struggled the past couple of years. Gastelum is overrated if you ask us, and his wrestling success in his last match is unlikely to carry over into this fight. The only fighter to land more than one takedown on Whittaker in a match was Yoel Romero—who did so twice, in 4 of 18 and 3 for 10 performances. Whittaker was also noticeably fighting through a leg injury when Romero took him down four times. As long as Whittaker can stay upright, which we believe he can, look for him to outland his way to a decision here. All four of Gastelum’s KOs in the UFC have come against fighters 36 years old or older—two of whom never fought again. His last KO was in November 2017, against a 38-year-old Michael Bisping in his last career fight. We like Whittaker to win a low-volume decision here.
The most likely outcome here is a Whittaker decision win, which can be had at +135. That doesn’t stand out as a great value, but it’s better than betting his moneyline at -275. You can also consider “Gastelum Wins by KO” at +500 if you want to throw money away, or “Gastelum Wins by R1 KO” at +1600 or “Gastelum Wins by R2 KO” at +2400 if you really have some money burning a hole in your pocket.
DFS Implications:
Whittaker has failed to score above 88 DraftKings points in his last four wins, which all ended in decisions, despite three of those going five full rounds. The only times he’s put up usable DFS scores is when he lands a KO in the first two rounds. He’s only landed six takedowns in his 16 UFC fights, but has also only been taken down 10 times. Seven of those notably came in his two fights against Yoel Romero, so he’s only been taken down three times in his other 14 UFC matches. So grappling has not been much of a factor in many of his fights. Whittaker lands a slightly above average number of significant strikes, but nothing to get excited about as he’s only topped 89 significant strikes landed once in his career. Further reducing the odds of a shootout, only Adesayna has landed more than 70 significant strikes on Gastelum in his 17 UFC fights.
Assuming we don’t see much grappling from Whittaker, he would need to land around 165 significant strikes to break 100 DraftKings points in a decision—nearly 40 more than his career high. And that’s just to score 100 points, which by no means locks him into winning lineups. The odds imply Whittaker has a 70% chance to win, but just a 29% chance to end things early and only a 10% shot at landing a first round finish. Gastelum has notably never been knocked out, and Whittaker hasn’t submitted anybody since 2011. The most likely single outcome in this fight is that Whittaker wins a decision (40% implied chance). If that happens, it most likely does not score well enough to crack the optimal lineup on either site. Although, he will fare better on FanDuel, where he can score from takedowns defended and significant strikes are more heavily valued.
Gastelum is coming off a career high in takedowns landed and attempted, where he amazingly accounted for 33% of his career takedowns in just 6.84% of his total career Octagon time. This can obviously be attributed to the fact that we mocked his DFS upside relentlessly going into that match. Clearly Gastelum is a subscriber and took that personally, as he attempted a career high 14 takedown attempts. We expect the field to be overzealous on Gastelum’s wrestling upside after his recent overachievement. He will now go up against the elite 84% takedown defense of Whittaker, opposed to the average 60% takedown defense of Ian Heinisch, and we expect his takedown numbers to come back down to earth.
Looking at Gastelum’s striking, he’s only landed above 67 significant strikes twice in 17 UFC fights—91 in his five round title fight against Adesanya in 2019 and 124 in a 2016 three round fight against Johny Hendricks. His slightly below average 3.64 significant strikes landed per minute are not enough to allow him to score well in decisions without the help of a massive wrestling performance. He’s only topped 88 DraftKings points in two of his last 10 fights—a 2017 R1 KO over Bisping where he scored 106 points and his recent wrestling explosion against Heinisch where he scored 95 points.
In his five previous five round fights in the UFC, Gastelum is 1-3 plus a No Contest (originally a R1 KO win overturned for pot). If we count his overturned KO, his DraftKings scores in his 5 five-round fights have been 76, 122, 21, 106, and 49, while his FanDuel scores have been 92, 140, 46, 120, and 61. So he still would have scored decently against Magny had the 2015 decision gone his way, but the same cannot be said in his most recent five round decision against Adesanya.
The odds imply Gastelum has a 30% chance to win this fight, with a 16% chance it comes early and just a 7% chance it comes in the first round. We project his DraftKings floor to be right around 80 points in a win, which even at his highly discounted price shows there are still ways he fails to return value in a win. His ceiling projects around 110-115 DK points—barring a knockout in the first 60 seconds—so we’re not saying he can’t score well, it’s just unlikely. Overall this sets up as a very lackluster main event with a much higher chance than normal that the winner is left out of winning lineups. That’s unlikely to be a unique perspective, so do we expect the combined ownership to be somewhat lower than normal for this main event, but it will still be owned far above the actual chances of it producing a top six scorer on the slate, especially on DraftKings. As we mentioned previouslt, Whittaker looks to be a better, but still unexceptional, option on FanDuel compared to DraftKings.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma