The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #12

Modestas Bukauskas

6th UFC Fight (2-3)

Making his recent return to the UFC after getting cut following three straight losses in 2020 and 2021, Bukauskas is fresh off an upset win over Tyson Pedro, which is especially impressive when you consider Bukauskas took the fight on short notice in Pedro’s home country of Australia. The fight itself wasn’t anything to write home about, as Bukauskas actually finished a tick behind in significant strikes 44-45, while also getting taken down twice in the low-volume affair. Prior to that, Bukauskas won a pair of Cage Warriors fights outside of the UFC after getting his knee blown out by Khalil Rountree in the second round of a September 2021 fight. After recovering from that injury, Bukauskas returned to Cage Warriors where he had been the former Light Heavyweight champ. Upon his return, Bukauskas won a decision over 37-year-old journeyman Lee Chadwick to immediately get back into CWFC title contention. He then fought for the vacant belt against 39-year-old Chuck Campbell, who Bukauskas knocked out early in the fourth round to recapture the belt he had vacated when he joined the UFC. Those two Cage Warriors fights took place in November and December of 2022 leading up to his recent UFC fight in February 2023, so Bukauskas has been quite busy lately since returning from the knee injury.

Bukauskas originally made his UFC debut in July 2020 and got a slightly bizarre R1 TKO stoppage after the round ended. His opponent, Andreas Michailidis, shot for a takedown with under 10 seconds remaining in the round and Bukauskas landed several elbows that looked just barely legal to the side/back of Michailidis’ head. As the horn sounded, Michailidis lay hunched over, grasping the back of his head, right next to the door to the cage. The cornermen entered and the ref told Michailidis he had to get up so Michailidis began to sit up, but went to lean against what he thought was the cage. Instead he leaned against an open door and fell backwards, and the ref immediately stopped the fight. It appeared that he would have had a chance to push off the cage and stand up, had the door not been open—but he also didn’t look entirely there so who knows. That was Bukauskas’ seventh straight win at the time, all coming early, with five first round finishes. However, Bukauskas then got knocked out in round one by Jimmy Crute, lost a decision to Michal Oleksiejczuk, and got his knee destroyed in a R2 TKO loss to Khalil Rountree.

Now 14-5 as a pro, Bukauskas has nine wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision victories. Four of his nine knockout wins ended in round one, three came in round two, and two occurred in round four. His two submission victories both came in the first round of consecutive 2018 fights, both by rear-naked choke. He’s been knocked out three times himself, submitted once, and has one decision loss. Three of his four early losses ended in 121 seconds or less, with the other coming midway through round two. After winning a decision in his 2015 pro debut, Bukauskas had 13 straight fights end early, with nine ending in the first round. However, since then he’s seen the second round in five straight fights, with four of those making it to round three and three going the distance. The last time he landed a finish within 15 minutes was in his 2020 UFC debut.

Overall, Bukauskas is a Lithuanian kickboxer who lives and trains in England. He’s a karate black belt, and has only attempted one takedown in his five UFC fights, which he failed to land, while his opponents got him down on two of their seven attempts (71.4% defense). He’s a painfully patient striker who only averages 3.37 SSL/min and hasn’t been very aggressive in his UFC fights, often content with waiting on his opponents to throw first and looking for counter strikes. He hasn’t landed more than 58 significant strikes in any of his five UFC fights, nor has he absorbed more than 56.

Zac Pauga

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Pauga holds the dubious honors of being the only fighter boring enough to take Jordan Wright to a decision, and Pauga’s last four official wins all went the distance. Pauga spent most of his last fight pushing Wright up against the cage and honestly we felt like the UFC should have cut both guys after the match just to send a message. That was Pauga’s first fight back down at 205 lb, after going up to Heavyweight for a year when he went on The Ultimate Fighter. That experiment ended with a second round KO loss against a suspect Mohammed Usman in the finale of the show. The punch that knocked Pauga out appeared to have very little behind it and makes you wonder about his chin moving forward. Pauga’s second most recent fight at 205 lb was in October 2021 against Markus Perez—a career 185er who had just been cut by the UFC following three straight losses. Despite moving up to 205 lb for the first and only time in his career, Perez showed up to the fight five pounds overweight. Perez was able to take Pauga down multiple times in the first round and control him, but then slowed down in round two and barely did anything for the rest of the fight, allowing Pauga to come back and win a decision. It was a poor showing from both fighters in a very uneventful match.

Now 6-1 as a pro not counting his two exhibition wins on TUF, Pauga has one TKO win, which occurred in the first round of his second pro fight against an opponent who also only had one pro fight to his name. Pauga’s other four official wins all ended with the judges. He did land another knockout on TUF, along with another decision win, but he also fought a pig farmer and a welder so take those results with a grain of salt. Pauga’s only career loss was his R2 KO against Mohammed Usman. Pauga competed at Heavyweight as an amateur, but dropped down to Light Heavyweight in his 2020 pro debut, where he fought his first five pro fights. He then returned to Heavyweight so he could compete on the show, but said from the beginning that his plan was always to move back down to Light Heavyweight after the show.

Overall, Pauga is not a very impressive talent and seems content with grinding on opponents along the cage and making fights boring. He’s decently athletic and has a football background, but he’s not any sort of physical freak. He trains with guys like Curtis Blaydes at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, which should benefit his cardio. He only turned pro in MMA in July 2020, and got a late start in his MMA career considering he’s already 35 years old. In his two UFC fights, Pauga failed to land any of his six takedown attempts, but stuffed both of the attempts against him.

Fight Prediction:

Bukauskas will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while also being six years younger than the 35-year-old Pauga.

Both of these two are painfully boring and neither has done much to impress us. Bukauskas is the much more explosive striker, but is far too tentative in fights and needs to let his hands go more and stop backing up so much. On the other side of things, Pauga seems content with grinding out boring decisions and doesn’t look like he’ll be around the UFC for long. We expect Bukauskas to look to counterstrike off his back foot, while Pauga attempts to wrangle him in and press him up against the cage. Pauga’s chin has looked somewhat suspect, so if Bukauskas can land something clean he’s definitely capable of knocking him out, but it also won’t be surprising to see Pauga find success in holding Bukauskas against the cage for extended periods of time. Because of that, we expect this fight to end with either Bukauskas knocking Pauga out or Pauga winning another excruciatingly boring decision. We’ll give the slight edge to Bukauskas landing a knockout, but it feels like close to a coinflip in terms of which outcome we see.

Our favorite bet here is “Bukauskas KO” at +260.

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DFS Implications:

Bukauskas has failed to top 52 DraftKings points in his last four UFC fights, and only scored 97 points in an ideally timed post R1 TKO in his UFC debut, where he had the full five minutes to work with, while still earning the round one finishing bonus. He’s a painfully patient counter striker who offers nothing in terms of grappling and is entirely reliant on early knockouts to score well. Bukauskas only averages 3.37 SSL/min with zero takedown landed on just one attempt in five UFC fights and is now facing an opponent who should be looking to hold him against the cage. If that doesn’t scream R1 KO or bust we don’t know what does, and at Bukauskas’ expensive price tag he could easily still get left out of winning tournament lineups even with a first round knockout. The only thing Bukauskas really has going for him in terms of DFS is his low projected ownership. Pauga showed a suspect chin when he got knocked out by Usman and there’s always a chance Bukauskas can land a quick knockout and accrue the Quick Win Bonus on DraftKings, which would be incredibly valuable at his low ownership. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Pauga is generally not a guy we’ll be looking to target in DFS as he doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, only sporadically mixes in takedowns, rarely finishes anybody, has a suspect chin, and overall is not a very talented fighter. The guy couldn’t even score well in a win over Jordan Wright, which is the first time anyone can ever say that. While he racked up a ton of control time in that 15 minute snoozer, he still only landed 85 total strikes and scored just 74 DraftKings points. At his cheap price tag in this next match, there’s always a chance he could serve as a value play on DraftKings with a similar result, but that’s still unlikely. We’d be surprised to see Pauga finish Bukauskas, so we really don’t see much of a ceiling for Pauga in this matchup. The only selling point on him is that he also projects to be low owned, but without much of a ceiling we’re still not excited about playing him. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Ronnie Lawrence

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Lawrence had been scheduled to face Cameron Saaiman back in December, but withdrew 10 days before the event, which is the second time he’s dropped out in his last four scheduled bouts and one of his biggest challenges has simply been making weight and showing up for fights. At multiple points in the past he’s talked about going through bad weight cuts. While Lawrence is known for his relentless chain wrestling, the last time we saw him he was the one getting ragdolled around the Octagon by a criminally underrated Saidyokub Kakhramonov, who was mysteriously released by the UFC after going 3-1 and nearly 4-0. Lawrence only landed one of his two takedown attempts in the fight, while Kakhramonov took Lawrence down 10 times on 16 attempts, while controlling him for over 12 minutes and lapping him in striking. Prior to that, Lawrence had won five straight fights and was 3-0 in the UFC with at least six takedowns landed in each of those three wins. Lawrence’s only other loss came in a 2016 decision in Bellator against UFC fighter Steve Garcia. Lawrence took two and a half years off following the loss before returning to action in 2019. Lawrence’s last two and four of his last five fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2021 R3 TKO win in his UFC debut.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Lawrence has four wins by KO/TKO and four decisions. Both of his losses also went the distance and eight of his last nine fights have seen the second round, with seven of those making it to round three and six going the distance.

Overall, Lawrence started training in Kung Fu when he was 17 and he’ll be the first to tell you that he’s not a wrestler. While he may not have a wrestling background, he comes in looking to chain wrestle in all of his fights. He’s also a BJJ brown belt, although has never submitted anybody. He’s not the most technical striker and likes to throw spinning attacks on the feet, while we’ve seen him get rocked in striking exchanges in the past. He has good footwork and never stops moving, which makes him a tough guy to track down. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed 27 of his 35 takedown attempts (77.1% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 10 of their 19 attempts (47.4% defense). All 10 of those opponent takedowns came in his recent loss to Kakhramonov. Lawrence’s recent wrestling success has come against one-dimensional strikers, and we’ve yet to see him out grapple any actual wrestlers, so perhaps his wrestling is overrated.

Dan Argueta

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Coming off his first UFC win in a wrestling-heavy decision against a short notice UFC newcomer, Argueta is now dropping down to 135 lb for the first time in the UFC, after competing at 145 lb in each of his previous two fights. Argueta landed four of his six takedown attempts in that recent win, with over 10 minutes of control time and two official submission attempts. Prior to that, he lost a wrestling-heavy decision to Damon Jackson in his own short notice UFC debut, where Jackson took him down twice and controlled Argueta for over 10 minutes. A month after that loss, Argueta had shoulder surgery to correct an injury that he said had been plaguing him for his last five fights. Argueta originally tried to crack the UFC roster through The Ultimate Fighter, but ultimately lost a decision to Ricky Turcios, who went on to win the show. Argueta then returned to the LFA and rattled off three straight victories with a pair of finishes followed by a five-round split decision to secure the vacant LFA Bantamweight belt just a month before he made his UFC debut.

Now 9-1 as a pro, Argueta has two wins by TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. Five of his six early wins occurred in the first round, with the other ending in a third round TKO. However, five of his six finishes occurred in his first six pro fights and he’s now fought to three straight decisions (2-1), not even counting his decision loss on The Ultimate Fighter, which technically goes down as an exhibition match. Including that TUF fight, Argueta’s last five fights have made it to the third round, with the last four of those going the distance. His only official pro loss also went the distance and he’s never been finished. Argueta turned pro in 2019 at 145 lb and then fought three straight fights at 150 lb Catchweight followed by another one at 145 lb. He then dropped down to 135 lb when he went on TUF, where he stayed until his short notice UFC debut back up at 145 lb. He has said that he wants to compete at both 135 lb and 145 lb, but needs a full training camp to make it down to 135 lb.

Overall, Argueta relies heavily on his college wrestling background and shoots for a high number of takedowns. He has solid top pressure and ground and pound, but doesn’t offer a ton off his back. He’s not an especially dangerous striker and while two-thirds of his wins have come early, it’s on the mat where he gets his finishes. He’s looked very hittable in the past and needs to improve his striking defense if he wants his chin to hold up long term, but he has proven himself to be durable up until this point. With that said, the cut back down to 135 lb has the potential to impact his durability. Between his two UFC fights, Argueta landed 5 of his 9 takedown attempts (55.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 2 of their 4 attempts (50% defense). His fights typically play out as back and forth wrestling matches with Argueta wearing on his opponents as they go on and simply outlasting the opposition. However, it will be interesting to see if cutting the additional weight affects his cardio any later on in this fight.

Fight Prediction:

Lawrence will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 68” reach.

This is an interesting matchup after Lawrence got completely dominated on the mat in his last fight, where he finally faced an opponent who could actually wrestle. Prior to that, Lawrence had been chain wrestling a series of one-dimensional strikers and looked nearly unstoppable, but perhaps he was just making the most out of a series of dream matchups. He’s yet to show he can actually out wrestle a wrestler, but will get his chance here. It would also make sense for Lawrence to try and strike more in this matchup, considering his background is actually in Kung Fu opposed to wrestling, and Argueta has looked pretty hittable on the feet. With that said, we expect Argueta to be forcing the grappling exchanges, especially after seeing how much Lawrence struggled in his last match when he was forced to be the nail instead of the hammer for the first time in the UFC. The one wildcard on Argueta’s side of things will be his weight cut back down to 135 lb, which could either allow him to be more physically imposing or drain his cardio and compromise his chin. That variable adds some additional uncertainty to an already volatile matchup, although we’d be surprised to see this fight end early. It’s hard to know how the wrestling exchanges will go, but we can confidently say that Argueta is nowhere nearly as talented as Kakhramonov. Despite that, we expect him to put up more resistance than the other opponents Lawrence has faced and there’s a good chance this plays out as a back and forth wrestling match. It’s also possible that one of them will simply be able to overpower the other on the mat, making it a trickier one to confidently predict a winner. It’s also a matchup where we want to see both guys on the scale before making an official prediction, as they’ll each have to battle the scale before they earn the opportunity to face one another. We still haven’t been that impressed by Argueta, so we’ll tentatively say Lawrence wins a decision, but the wider odds on Argueta’s side of things make his decision prop more appealing.

Our favorite bet here is “Argueta DEC” at +310.

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DFS Implications:

Lawrence is coming off a demoralizing decision loss where he got beat at his own game and dominated on the mat for three rounds. He scored just 11 DraftKings points in that loss, after putting up slate-breaking DraftKings scores of 131 and 135 and in his previous two fights. He’s shown a massive ceiling when he can get his wrestling going, but both of those dominant wins came against opponents with no wrestling skills. Now Lawrence will take on a fighter that does have a wrestling background, making it tougher to fully trust him here. With that said, Argueta’s takedown defense hasn’t been exceptional and now he’s dropping down to 135 lb after competing at 145 lb for his last two fights, which adds some inherent volatility to this matchup. Lawrence’s recent loss gives us a clear idea of how he fails and it’s possible Argueta comes in and simply out wrestles Lawrence. However, you can’t question Lawrence’s upside when he is able to implement his wrestling-heavy attack, leaving him with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes. The field has always been high on him, but it will be interesting to see if his recent loss scares anyone off or if he’ll once again come in very highly owned. Deciding what to do with Lawrence will be a critical decision point in all contest types. The odds imply Lawrence has a 64% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Argueta scored 101 DraftKings points in his recent wrestling-heavy decision win over a short notice replacement who was making his UFC debut on just a few days’ notice, after previously scoring 41 points in a decision loss in his own short notice UFC debut. Now he’ll be dropping down to 135 lb for the first time in the UFC, although he did win three straight LFA fights at the weight class just before making his UFC debut. Nevertheless, it’s hard to know how the weight cut will affect Argueta in this matchup, which adds some uncertainty to the mix. The fact that we just saw Lawrence get smothered on the mat for 15 minutes is encouraging for Argueta’s upside, just keep in mind that Argueta is nowhere nearly as talented as Kakhramonov. Nevertheless, at Argueta’s cheap price tag a wrestling-heavy decision win would give him a good shot at cracking tournament winning lineups on DraftKings, while he’ll be more reliant on landing a finish or putting up a big takedown number to score well on FanDuel. The odds imply Argueta has a 36% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Tereza Bleda

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from the first loss of her young career, Bleda got knocked out in the third round of her UFC debut by a really tough Natalia Silva. Bleda started strong in the fight, winning the first round on all three scorecards after she took Silva down and nearly submitted her, but gassed out in round two and was a sitting duck waiting to be finished by the third round. Prior to that, Bleda won a unanimous 30-26 wrestling-heavy decision win on DWCS to punch her ticket to the UFC, after finishing four of her first five opponents in under seven minutes.

Now 6-1 as a pro, Bleda has two wins by TKO, two submissions, and two decision victories. Both of her submissions came in round one, while her TKO wins were split across the first two rounds. She has never finished an opponent beyond the seven minute mark and her last three finishes came in round one. Two of her first three pro fights were at 135 lb, but the rest of her fights have been down at 125 lb.

Overall, Bleda is a one-dimensional wrestler from the Czech Republic who relies on her size to overpower opponents. She doesn’t offer much on the feet and her cardio has also been a concern. However, she only turned pro in late 2020 and is still just 21 years old, so she has plenty of time to improve on both fronts. She’s looked dangerous in the first halves of fights, especially in round one and has the ability to finish opponents with both submissions and ground and pound. Between her DWCS match and her recent UFC debut, she landed two of her eight takedown attempts (25% accuracy), while her opponents only got her down on one of their six attempts (83.3% defense).

Gabriella Fernandes

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Coming off a smothering decision loss in her recent UFC debut against Jasmine Jasudavicius, Fernandes got taken down four times and controlled for eleven and a half minutes as she really showed her defensive wrestling limitations. Fernandes got taken down in every round of the fight and never showed the ability to return to her feet as she rode out rounds on her back. Prior to that, she landed a second round submission win for the LFA interim Flyweight belt and came into the UFC on a seven fight winning streak, with four of those wins coming in mid-to-late round finishes, with her last three finishes coming in round two. In her last win before joining the UFC, Fernandes picked her opponent apart on the feet for a round and a half before dropping her midway through round two and then jumping on a guillotine to finish the fight. Just prior to that she landed a second round TKO from body shots. The only first round finish of her career came in her 2018 pro debut when she landed a R1 TKO against Iasmin Lucindo, who’s also currently in the UFC.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Fernandes has three wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision wins. She’s never been finished with both of her losses going the distance. Fernandes started her career at 115 lb before taking a fight all the way up at 135 lb in 2019. She then dropped down to 125 lb, where she’s pretty much stayed other than a quick trip back up to 135 lb in 2021. She’s 4-1 at 125 lb, with three of those wins coming early, all in the second round.

Overall, Fernandes is a solid striker who’s competed in taekwondo, jiu jitsu, and surfing. She teaches both boxing and surfing on the side and is an all around good athlete who looks really strong. She mixes in her kicks and boxing well and also has some submission skills on the mat, but her defensive wrestling appears to be her biggest vulnerability. The UFC isn’t doing her any favors, as they paired her up with a 5’7” wrestler in her debut and are now giving her a 5’9” wrestler.

Fight Prediction:

Bleda will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. Fernandes is eight years older than the 21-year-old Bleda.

This looks like deja vu all over again for Gabriella Fernandes as she faces her second straight giant wrestler. Fernandes is a solid striker and will also look for submissions, but she showed no ability to get up off her back in her last fight and will now face her second straight opponent whose sole desire will be to put her there. The one hope for Fernandes is that now she’s facing an opponent with suspect cardio and Fernandes has landed late round finishes in four of her last six wins. So if Fernandes can simply survive the first round and a half, she may have a decent opportunity to land another late finish, even if she does get controlled early on in the match. However, she’ll likely be trying to dig herself out of a hole and will have a tougher time winning a decision. It won’t be shocking to see Bleda finish Fernandes on the mat in the opening round and a half, but considering Fernandes has never been finished a decision victory is probably Bleda’s more likely path to victory, as long as she can avoid gassing out and getting finished late in the fight. We’ll take Bleda by decision, but we fully expect to be sweating out the final round as there’s a good chance she’ll be running on fumes by that point.

Our favorite bet here is “Bleda DEC” at +135.

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DFS Implications:

Bleda is a 21-year-old one-dimensional wrestler with cardio concerns who only turned pro two and a half years ago, but has really good size for the 125 lb division. She’s consistently looking to get fights to the ground, and now gets a favorable matchup against an opponent who was taken down four times and controlled for eleven and a half minutes in her own recent debut. Bleda held her own in the first round of debut against a really tough Natalia Silva, but gassed out in round two before getting knocked out in round three. If she can improve her cardio and striking she could be a problem in the division, but both of those are glaring weaknesses at the moment. Nevertheless, when she’s able to execute her gameplan she’s shown the ability to dominate fights on the mat, which allows her to score well on DraftKings even in decisions. She also has four finishes in under seven minutes, which presents upside on FanDuel as well. Her high price tag combined with her recent KO loss in her debut should keep her ownership low and she makes for an interesting DraftKings tournament pivot off of the ridiculously popular Arman Tsarukyan. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Fernandes got mauled on the mat in her recent debut, but was at least able to survive for three rounds and has decent striking when she’s able to keep fights standing. She also has a history of landing late round finishes, which could come in handy as she faces an inexperienced opponent with cardio concerns. However, even if Fernandes is able to find a finish late in the fight, there’s a good chance it will come after she gets controlled for extended periods of time early on, which will limit her upside. With that said, at her cheap price tag she doesn’t need to put up a huge score to crack winning lineups. She also projects to be low owned, which adds to her tournament appeal. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Carlos Hernandez

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Coming off the first early loss of his career, Hernandez was submitted in the first round by a dangerous Allan Nascimento. Hernandez never got much offense of his own going in that fight as he got taken down less than a minute in and controlled for the remainder before being forced to tap midway through the round as Nascimento locked in a rear-naked choke. Prior to that loss, Hernandez won eight straight fights, including a pair of split decisions on DWCS and in his subsequent UFC debut. In his razor close win over Victor Altamirano, in what was both of their UFC debuts, Hernandez narrowly finished ahead in significant strikes 84-79, while landing 2 of his 9 takedown attempts and getting taken down once by Altamirano.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Hernandez has never knocked anybody out, but has four submission wins and four decision victories. Three of those submissions came in round one, with the other ending in round two, although it’s been three and half years since he finished anybody and his last three wins all went the distance. He’s also never been knocked out, but he was just submitted in the first round. His only other loss was a decision in his 2017 pro debut.

Overall, Hernandez has good movement and footwork and is generally looking to push the pace, but doesn’t have much power in his striking and isn’t a threat to knock anybody out. While his takedown accuracy isn’t great, he’s somewhat dangerous on the mat and does a decent job of controlling opponents once there. He’s been prone to getting taken down himself, but he’s generally been good at quickly scrambling back to his feet. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s only landed 2 of his 17 takedown attempts (11.8% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 8 of their 24 attempts (66.7% defense).

Denys Bondar

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Bondar is 16 months removed from suffering a gruesome arm/elbow injury in the first round of his UFC debut against Malcolm Gordon. The fight wasn’t going great for Bondar from the start, as he got clipped by Gordon in the opening 30 seconds and then after landing a desperation takedown found himself fighting off an armbar attempt that may have begun the damage to his left elbow. As the two scrambled on the mat, Bondar tried to post on that left arm and the elbow just gave out and the fight was immediately stopped. Bondar’s second most recent fight was nearly three years ago back in August 2020 and he’s really struggled with inactivity as he’s dropped out of three of his last four scheduled fights, including one against Ode Osbourne earlier this year. Bondar had finished eight straight opponents leading up to the loss in his debut, with his second most recent defeat coming all the way back in 2017. Prior to joining the UFC, Bondar had exclusively been competing on the somewhat dubious Ukrainian regional scene, which has produced several fraudulent fighters in the past.

Now 16-4 as a pro, Bondar has a 100% finishing rate with five wins by KO/TKO and 11 submission victories. Twelve of Bondar’s 16 wins came in round one, one ended in round two, and three occurred in round three. He’s also been finished in two of his three losses with his recent 2022 R1 TKO and a 2016 R3 submission. He lost the only decision he’s ever been to, which was back in 2017. Bondar has bounced between 125 lb and 135 lb throughout his career, but it looks like he plans on staying at 125 lb for now and he only has one 135 lb fight since 2018.

Overall, Bondar is primarily a grappler and while he has decent striking he’s generally looking to take his opponents to the mat and beat them up while he hunts for submissions. He showed the ability to overpower Flyweight opponents prior to joining the UFC, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to find the same success against more legitimate competition at the UFC level. His debut ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, but nothing he did in that short fight inspired a ton of confidence moving forward.

Fight Prediction:

Hernandez will have a 2” height advantage according to the UFC, but they also claimed he was the same height as Allan Nascimento and he was clearly the shorter fighter in that one. Bondar will have a 2” reach advantage.

Outside of his recent submission loss, Hernandez has generally been fighting to decisions lately, while Bondar almost never requires the judges, so something will have to give here. The jury is still out on Bondar, but after a year and a half away he may have some ring rust to knock off, especially as he returns from a gnarly elbow injury. Hernandez isn’t exceptional anywhere, but seems pretty solid everywhere, and looks to be the toughest test of Bondar’s career. On the regional scene, Bondar looked like a dangerous finisher and was very aggressive looking for takedowns and finishes on the mat. However, it’s entirely possible that he’s a fraud and only looked that good because he was fighting terrible competition that wasn’t exposing his holes. The fact that he’s only fought once in the last 34 months just adds to that uncertainty, and who knows what his training has been like over in Ukraine lately. Therefore, this is a very volatile matchup that could go a lot of ways. While Hernandez just got submitted in the first round of his last fight, that’s the only time he’s ever been finished and it came against a really dangerous grappler, so we’re certainly not writing him off at his point, but one of his biggest weaknesses has been his takedown defense, as his last three opponents all got him down. That’s far from ideal as he faces an opponent in Bonder who will be looking to get him to the ground, but there are far more questions than answers with Bondar, making it tough to know how this fight will play out. But based on Bondar’s aggressive style, there’s a good chance someone gets finished here, most likely by submission, although we won’t be shocked if this ends in an action-packed decision. With so many red flags surrounding Bondar, we’re leaning Hernandez if we’re forced to choose a winner, but we’re more so looking to chalk this one up as a learning experience when it comes to evaluating Bonder moving forward.

Our favorite bet here is Hernandez’s ML at +110.

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DFS Implications:

Hernandez has yet to show much of a ceiling and is now coming off the first early loss of his career, where he got submitted in the first round and scored just one point on DraftKings. Prior to that, he won a split decision in his UFC debut that was good for 77 DraftKings points, after winning another split decision on DWCS that only would have scored 74 points. He’s struggled with his takedown defense, as he’s been taken down in each of his last three fights, and while he’ll look for a decent number of his own takedowns, he has just an 11.8% takedown accuracy and his wrestling all around isn’t that great. With that said, he has shown the ability to get back up when he does get taken down and he pushes a decent pace. Bondar is coming off a 16 month layoff and hasn’t been past the middle of round two since 2018, so perhaps Hernandez can wear him out and take over in the back half of this match. Just keep in mind, Hernandez has never knocked anybody out and it’s been over three years since his last submission win, so he’s not an especially dangerous finishing threat. After opening as a slight favorite, the line flipped in Bondar’s favor, which leaves Hernandez overpriced and he should come in low owned. That adds to his tournament appeal in what looks like a volatile matchup that could go a lot of ways. If Hernandez can avoid spending large periods of time on his back, there’s a chance he could score enough in a decision to be useful, although he’s yet to show that in his last two decision wins. The odds imply Hernandez has a 45% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Bondar’s regional record made him look like a DFS goldmine coming into his February 2022 UFC debut and everyone seemed to agree as he entered that fight as a -290 favorite with a -115 ITD line. He was priced at $9,100 and 39% owned on DraftKings in what looked like a favorable matchup against Malcolm Gordon. He proceeded to get clipped on the feet in the opening 30 seconds of the fight and then have his arm broken in the opening 90 seconds. The fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to fully evaluate him on it, but he definitely did not look good for as long as it lasted. Perhaps it was just the Octagon jitters and he’ll look better here, or maybe he’s a complete fraud who only looked dominant on the Ukrainian regional scene because he was facing a bunch of bums. After 16 months away it’s hard to know how he’ll look here but the betting market seems to be giving him a pass as the line has flipped in his favor. His 100% finishing rate and wrestling-heavy style clearly offers some theoretical upside, but until he proves he can compete at the UFC level it’s hard to trust him. Working in his favor, Hernandez hasn’t looked like much of a finisher and struggles with his wrestling, so it’s a decent bounce back spot for Bondar, but we’re treating him as an extremely volatile option with a wide range of potential scoring outcomes. After the line flipped in his favor, he’s mispriced on both sites, but especially DraftKings, which should drive his ownership up some. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Cristian Quinonez

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Winner of five straight, Quinonez is coming off a first round TKO win in his UFC debut against Khalid Taha, who had previously never been knocked out. Prior to that, Quinonez had gone the distance in three of his previous four fights and punched his ticket to the UFC with a decision win on DWCS in October 2021. Just before going on DWCS, he won a five-round decision for the UWC Mexico Bantamweight belt, showing solid cardio as his pace never slowed for the entire 25 minutes.

Now 18-3 as a pro, Quinonez has 10 wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and five decision victories. All 10 of his knockout wins occurred in the first two rounds, with four in round one and six in rounds two. While his last two knockouts both ended in the first round, his six prior to that all came in round two. Two of his three submission wins also occurred in round one, while the only time he’s finished an opponent beyond the second round was in a 2016 third round submission. He’s also been finished in all three of his losses, with two TKOs (R3 2014 & R2 2017) and one submission (R3 2018). He hasn’t lost a fight since that 2018 third round submission defeat. Fourteen of Quinonez’s last 17 fights have made it out of the first round, but only five of those went the distance, and we’ve seen a lot of late round finishes in his fights.

Overall, Quinonez is a solid Mexican striker with good movement and footwork. He does a good job of mixing it up and attacking his opponents at multiple different levels through a combination of kicks and punches. He hasn’t shown much in terms of offensive grappling, but his takedown defense has been solid and he defended all six of the attempts against him in his UFC debut and DWCS appearance, while also landing his only takedown attempt in those fights. Still just 27 years old, Quinonez trains out of Entram Gym so he has a good team around him and should constantly be improving at this stage in his career. He’s also the younger brother of Jose Quinonez, who went 5-4 in the UFC before being released in 2020.

Kyung Ho Kang

12th UFC Fight (7-3, NC)

A year removed from a decision win over Batgerel Danaa, Kang has fought to four straight decisions and six of his last eight fights have gone the distance, with four of those being split and the other two being unanimously 29-28 (1-1). So he’s habitually been involved in close fights and the last time one of his bouts ended early was in a 2019 submission win. He’s won four of his last five fights and his only losses in his last nine outings came against Rani Yahya and Ricardo Ramos. His last 16 fights all either went the distance (4-4, NC) or ended in submissions (7-0), and no one has been knocked out in one of his matches since 2011 R1 TKO win. He had a 2013 split decision loss to Alex Caceres overturned to a No Contest when Caceres tested positive for THC or else he would have another split decision loss on his UFC record. The only other fights he’s been part of that ended in knockouts both came in 2008 (1-1), in his third and fourth pro fights. Kang didn’t fight at all in 2015-2017 as he performed his mandatory South Korean military service, and he’s now only competed twice since 2019.

Now 18-9 as a pro, Kang has two wins by R1 TKO, 11 submissions, and five decision victories. Six of his submission wins ended in round one, three came in round two, and two ended in round three. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2008), submitted once (R1 2011), has one DQ loss (R1 2010), and six decision losses. All 11 of Kang’s UFC fights have either ended in submissions (3-0) or decisions (4-3, NC) and all three of those submission wins came against pretty questionable opponents. Kang has decent size for the division and started his pro career at 154 lb in 2007, but has been at 135 lb since 2011.

Overall, Kang has historically leaned on his grappling to win fights for most of his UFC career, but has now failed to land a takedown on just two attempts in his last six rounds of action and seemed content with keeping the fight standing against a striker in his last match. Prior to those last two outings, he had landed at least one takedown in five straight matches and in eight of his first nine UFC fights. Looking at his entire 11 fight UFC career, he landed 19 of his 34 takedown attempts (55.9% accuracy), while his opponents got him down nine times on 30 attempts (70% defense). While his defense looks pretty solid on paper, five of the last six opponents who tried to take him down were successful. Kang hasn’t looked like much of a knockout threat, but has decent striking and is coming off a career best 100 significant strikes landed, after failing to top 65 significant strikes in his first 10 UFC appearances.

Fight Prediction:

Kang will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Quinonez is eight years younger than the 35-year-old Kang.

These two look pretty evenly matched, but we’ll give the grappling advantage to Kang and the striking advantage to Quinonez. It will be interesting to see if Kang turns back to more of a grappling-heavy gameplan after relying far more on his striking in his last match. Quinonez’s takedown defense has held up well in his last few fights, so he hasn’t had to spend any time on the mat. While that’s encouraging for his chances of keeping this fight standing, it also makes it harder to gauge how he’ll look if he does find himself on his back. Kang has historically done a good job of controlling opponents on the ground and also has 11 submission wins on his record. His best path to victory will be on the ground and his success in landing takedowns will likely determine the winner in this fight. That makes it trickier to predict the outcome, but Kang hasn’t landed a takedown since 2019 and Quinonez has done a good job of staying upright lately, albeit against less talented competition. We’d be surprised to see the fight end early, but if it does, a Kang submission win isn’t impossible. We expect it to end in a close decision and we’ll give the edge to Quinonez to get his hand raised.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -160.

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DFS Implications:

Quinonez is coming off a first round TKO win in his UFC debut that was good for 98 DraftKings points, but had gone the distance in three of his previous four fights and only has two finishes in his last six outings. He hasn’t shown anything in terms of offensive grappling, which leaves him reliant on striking and knockouts to score well. Now he’s facing an opponent who has only been knocked out once in his career, which was all the way back in 2008. That leaves us less excited about Quinonez’s outlook here and Kang only averages 2.87 SSA/min and should be looking to grapple to slow the fight down. We don’t see Quinonez landing enough striking volume to return value at his expensive price tag in a decision and looks like nothing more than an early KO or bust option. The odds imply he has a 58% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Kang has locked up submissions in three of his seven UFC wins, while showing a wide range of DraftKings specific scoring outcomes in decisions. In his two UFC decision wins where he failed to land a takedown, he only scored 70 and 57 respective DraftKings points, but he landed three takedowns in each of his other two UFC decision victories and returned DraftKings totals of 93 and 100. So he’s shown the ability to score well on DraftKings even in decisions, but only when he finds grappling success. Quinonez is primarily a striker but has shown a solid takedown defense in his last three matches, albeit against less talented grapplers. That makes it tougher to predict how much success Kang will have in getting the fight to the ground, especially when you consider he hasn’t landed a takedown since 2019, going just 0 for 2 in his last two fights. In fairness to him, one of those matches was against submission specialist Rani Yahya and Kang was finding success on the feet against Batgerel Danaa in the other. So his lack of grappling is certainly understandable and we expect him to be looking for takedowns here. Quinonez has also been submitted once and knocked out twice, which presents some finishing upside for Kang. At his cheap price tag, Kang looks like a solid underdog option with multiple paths to scoring well on DraftKings, while requiring a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply Kang has a 42% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Alessandro Costa

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Costa got knocked out in the third round of his recent UFC debut against a really tough Amir Albazi after stepping into that fight on three and a half weeks’ notice. He was never able to get much going in the match as he finished with just 17 significant strikes landed and zero takedown attempts, while getting knocked down twice, taken down once, and controlled for nearly six minutes before getting finished midway through round three. Prior to that loss, Costa had won seven straight fights, with three of his last four wins coming by knockout. He originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2022, but wasn’t awarded a contract following a lackluster split-decision win. He returned to the Lux Fight League after that, where he had been the three-time Flyweight champ leading up to his DWCS match, and proceeded to land a 12 second knockout win that was enough for the UFC to give him a shot.

Now 12-3 as a pro, Costa has three wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decision victories. Eight of his nine finishes occurred in the first round, with the other coming in round three. The first six wins of his career all ended in first round submissions, but his last three finishes all ended in knockouts and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019. He’s also been knocked out twice himself (R2 2016 & R3 2022), with his one other loss ending in a 2018 split decision.

Overall, Costa is a patient striker who has decent power for the Flyweight division. He trains with Alexa Grasso, Irene Aldana, Diego Lopes at Lobo Gym in Mexico, so he has a solid team around him. He’s also a BJJ black belt who has shown the ability to quickly lock up submissions when fights hit the mat and loves to look for armbars, which is how he completed five of his six submission wins. However, we also saw him get easily reversed on the mat in his DWCS match and controlled for periods of time on his back in his UFC debuts, so it’s hard to know just how effective his grappling will be at the UFC level moving forward. He didn’t even attempt a takedown in either his DWCS match or his UFC debut, but was able to defend seven of the eight attempts against him (87.5% defense). He also showed a solid takedown defense on the regional scene prior to going on DWCS, as well as the ability to land sporadic takedown attempts. Costa has also shown the ability to go five rounds in the past, so we have no reason to question his cardio and five of his last seven fights have seen the third round. After being put in an incredibly tough spot in his UFC debut, Costa will get a much more favorable matchup here.

Jimmy Flick

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Coming off a R1 TKO loss to Charles Johnson, Flick has only fought the one time since landing a mic drop first round flying triangle in his December 2020 UFC debut against Cody Durden and then randomly “retiring.” He was losing that fight to Durden before landing the highlight reel finish and then after his extended layoff he looked pretty rough in his recent loss to Johnson. While Flick was able to land one takedown in that fight, he got reversed on the mat and then finished with ground as he didn’t put up much resistance. Prior to that loss, he had submitted his last four opponents, but he’s been knocked out in his last four losses. Flick punched his ticket to the UFC with a third round submission win on DWCS just two months before his win over Durden.

Now 16-6 as a pro, Flick has 14 wins by submission and two decision victories. Both of his decision wins came in his first three pro fights and his last 13 wins have all come by submission. Of his 14 total submissions, eight came in round one, three ended in round two, and three occurred in round three. He has five KO/TKO losses and one decision defeat. While his last TKO loss occurred in round one, his previous four all came in the later rounds, with three ending in round two and the other in round three. Flick fought primarily at 135 lb until 2020 when he dropped down to 125 lb.

Overall, Flick is a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu specialist who is a liability on the feet. While he is slick on the mat, he’s very hittable in the striking exchanges and his history of getting knocked out confirms that. His last 13 fights have all ended in either submission wins (9) or KO losses (4) and Flick is the definition of a kill or get killed fighter. Between his DWCS appearance and his two UFC fights, Flick has landed three of his seven takedown attempts (42.9% accuracy), while his opponents landed both of their attempts against him. The last time he won a fight without landing a submission was 2011.

Fight Prediction:

Flick will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

While Flick is about as durable as a wet paper bag, he makes for fun fights and his last 13 matches all ended early (9-4). We’ve yet to see him find much success against UFC caliber competition and his last performance was extremely underwhelming. Perhaps that can partially be attributed to ring rust after his extended time away, but we’re not convinced that he’s training the way he should be and he mentioned one of the places he trains at is just a cross fit gym. While he’s always a threat to lock up a submission, now he’s facing a BJJ black belt who’s never been submitted and has solid power in his hands. Flick looks like nothing more than a hail mary submission play and we like Costa to knock him out in the first two rounds, most likely in round one.

Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -115.

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DFS Implications:

Costa’s patient striking and general lack of takedowns is typically not something we’ll be chasing in DFS, but he does have heavy hands and good armbar submissions, and more importantly he’s fighting Jimmy Flick. We’re always looking to target Flick’s fights as the last 13 of them all ended early. Costa is a BJJ black belt who has never been submitted and at least appears to have the grappling background to defend the submission attempts of Flick. Costa just faced a dangerous submission threat in Amir Albazi, who was unable to submit Costa, although in fairness did land a TKO in the third round. We’re willing to cut Costa some slack there considering it was his UFC debut on somewhat short notice and he was thrown in there with a top 10 Flyweight. This will be a major step down in competition for Costa and with more time to prepare and the Octagon jitters out of the way we expect him to give a better account of himself and knock Flick out, while scoring well on both sites. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.

Flick is a one-dimensional grappler who “retired” after a first round submission win in his 2020 UFC debut, before recently returning to get finished with ground and pound in the first round against Charles Johnson, who has gone the distance in his other four UFC fights (1-3). Flick lacks durability and seems to wilt under pressure, but is still a dangerous grappler. His all offense approach to fighting is great for DFS, and the only time he’s required the judges since 2011 was over seven years ago in a 2016 decision loss. His last 13 wins have all ended in submissions, while he’s been knocked out in five of his six losses. At his cheap price tag, it’s tough to see Flick getting left out of winning tournament lineups if he pulls off the upset and whoever wins this fight should score well. The odds imply Flick has a 32% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Muslim Salikhov

9th UFC Fight (6-2)

Coming off his first early win since 2019, Salikhov landed a third round knockout against a consistently compromised Andre Fialho. Despite landing the finish, Salikhov lost the first round after Fialho hurt him late in the round. However, he returned the favor in round two and at that point Fialho looked nearly out on his feet and it was just a matter of time before Salikhov finished him. Just prior to that win, Salikhov suffered the first knockout loss of his career in the second round against Li Jingliang, after winning five in a row before that. Salikhov’s only other UFC loss was a second round submission in his 2017 debut.

Now 19-3 as a pro, Salikhov has 13 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. Thirteen of his 15 finishes have occurred in the first round, one ended in round two, and the other ended in round three. All of his career losses have also come early, with two submissions and one knockout. Both of his UFC losses ended in the back half of round two.

Overall, Salikhov’s most dangerous weapon is his lightning fast spinning kick. He doesn’t throw much volume, averaging just 3.30 SSL/min, but when he does land he makes it count. He’s never landed more than 63 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorbed more than 46. He’s begun mixing in more takedown attempts, but still doesn’t offer a ton in terms of grappling. After failing to land a takedown in any of his first three UFC fights, he’s landed seven over his last five matches. Looking at his entire UFC career, he’s landed 7 of his 20 takedown attempts (35% accuracy), while his opponents have taken him down on 4 of their 18 attempts (77.8% defense). Now 39 years old, Salikhov is the most dangerous in round one and tends to slow down some later in fights. Following his KO loss to Li Jingliang in his second most recent fight, Salikhov said he switched camps and began training at American Top Team, which he mentioned he thinks is the best gym to improve your wrestling.

Nicolas Dalby

11th UFC Fight (5-3-1, NC)

Dalby is coming off a pair of decision wins over habitual gassers in Warlley Alves and Claudio Silva. In his most recent win, he outlanded Alves 119-66 in significant strikes, while also stuffing two of Alves’ three takedown attempts. Somehow Derek Cleary scored the fight 29-28 in favor of Alves, which is grounds for being shot into the sun, after Dalby nearly lapped Alves in significant strikes and more than doubled him in total strikes. Prior to those two wins, Dalby lost a decision to Tim Means, after winning a close/questionable decision over Daniel Rodriguez. The only time Dalby hasn’t made it to the judges in his last six fights was when he got finished in the first round of a 2020 match against Jesse Ronson, but the results were later overturned to a No Contest when Ronson failed a drug test. After starting 13-0 as a pro, Dalby originally joined the UFC back in 2015 and won a decision in his debut. However, after going 1-2-1 with four decisions in his first four UFC fights, Dalby was released by the organization. The UFC then re-signed him in late 2019 and Dalby won his first fight back in a low-volume decision over Alex Oliveira leading up to his fight against Ronson.

Now 21-4-1 as a pro, Dalby has six wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and 11 decision wins. He’s never technically been finished, with all four of his official losses going the distance, although in reality he was submitted in the first round by Jesse Ronson in 2020 before the results were overturned to a No Contest when Ronson failed a drug test. While 10 of Dalby’s 21 career wins have come early, all of those finishes occurred outside of the UFC. Of those 10 finishes, he has only three career R1 wins, with the last one occurring in 2013. Of his last 17 fights, 16 made it out of the first round, with the one exception being the Ronson No Contest—if that even counts. Fifteen of the 17 made it to the third round, with 11 going the distance. Not counting the No Contest, all eight of his UFC fights have ended with the judges.

Overall, Dalby is a karate style fighter who has not shown the ability to finish opponents at the UFC level, with all five of his UFC wins ending in decisions. He’s a green belt in Ashihara karate and a BJJ brown belt. He only averages 3.74 SSL/min and 3.35 SSA/min, but he did land a career best 119 significant strikes in his recent win, after previously only topping 57 significant strikes landed once, which was when he landed 84 back in 2015. After landing eight combined takedowns in his first two UFC matches, he’s only landed a total of two takedowns in his last eight fights with the organization. He has a 65% takedown defense, having been taken down 13 times on 38 attempts in his 10 UFC fights. However, we’ve seen him struggle with being controlled on the mat, which will be a concern anytime he faces a grappler.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are listed at 5’11” but Dalby will have a 4” reach advantage and is a year younger than the 39-year-old Salikhov.

It’s rare to see Dalby involved in a fight that ends early, but he is coming off a career best performance in terms of significant strikes landed and is now facing an aging 39-year-old opponent whose last two fights both ended in late round knockouts (1-1). Salikhov just turned 39 and the potential for him to go off a cliff at any moment is there. We’ve already seen him slow down later on in fights and if Dalby keeps putting a pace on him it’s possible he could force a TKO stoppage. It’s also possible that Salikhov could land one of his patented spinning attacks and put Dalby away, although the most likely outcome is still for this fight to go the distance. While Salikhov has bever lost a decision in his career, we like Dalby’s chances of outpacing him in striking and there’s a decent chance Salikhov suffers his first decision loss in this fight. Give us Dalby by decision.

Our favorite bet here is Dalby’s ML at +165.

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DFS Implications:

Salikhov’s low-volume striking and questionable cardio generally leaves him reliant on landing a first round knockout to really score well, and his one second round finish in the UFC scored just 91 DraftKings points, while his recent third round knockout was only good for 82 points. He also only averaged 66 DraftKings points in his three decision wins, failing to top 80 points in any of those. At his high price tag, it seems safe to call him a R1 KO or bust option and even with a first round finish he could still easily get outscored by the other high priced options and left out of tournament winning lineups. In addition to all of that, Dalby has never been knocked out, so this looks like an all around tough spot for the 39-year-old Salikhov to be useful on DraftKings. However, he is cheaper on FanDuel so you can still consider playing him there. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Dalby is coming off a career best performance for both significant strikes landed and DFS production, but he still only scored 94 DraftKings points and has yet to ever finish anybody in the UFC. His three previous decision wins were good for just 69, 54, and 69 DraftKings points and now he’s facing an opponent who only averages 2.43 SSA/min and has a 77% takedown defense. No one has ever landed more than 46 significant strikes against Salikhov and he’s only been taken down once in his last seven fights. None of that is encouraging for Dalby’s DFS production. However, Dalby does project to be owned and Salikhov just turned 39 years old, so it’s always possible his chin gives out and Dalby notches his first finish in the UFC. We did just see Salikhov get knocked out for the first time in his second most recent fight and then hurt again in the first round of his last fight. At Dalby’s cheap price tag and low ownership, we don’t completely hate him as a lottery ticket tournament play, just keep in mind he’s unlikely to score as well in a decision as he did in his last fight. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Manuel Torres

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Torres had been scheduled to face Trey Ogden on March 25th but dropped out during weigh-ins due to “medical issues.”

Ten months removed from a first round knockout win in his UFC debut over a washed up Frank Camacho, Torres has amazingly only been out of the first round once in his 15 pro fights, which was in a 2018 split decision win. His last eight fights have all ended in round one, with seven of those ending in under half a round. In his previous win on DWCS, Torres’ opponent complained of an eye poke early in round one but Herb Dean did not stop the fight and Torres took advantage of that opportunity to unload with a flurry of strikes to force a stoppage. While his last two fights both ended in first round knockout wins, his previous six all ended in first round submissions (4-2).

Now 13-2 as a pro, he has six wins by R1 KO, six by R1 submission, and one decision. Both of his losses ended in first round leg lock submissions—one by kneebar and another by heel hook. His long skinny legs appear prone to that sort of attack, which will be something to consider when he faces grapplers. Take his impressive number of first round finishes with a grain of salt, as he hadn’t been facing the toughest competition on the Mexican regional scene. Torres started his career fighting between 139-146 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in 2018.

Overall, Torres is an ultra aggressive rangy fighter who has dangerous striking as well as the ability to choke opponents out. He doesn’t appear to offer much in terms of submission defense, and we haven’t seen his chin tested enough to really gauge his durability. Considering he’s only been out of the first round once in his career, and that was all the way back in 2018, it’s hard to really evaluate his cardio. However, even though his recent debut only lasted three and a half minutes, you could already see Torres starting to breath heavily toward the end and we expect cardio to be an issue for him as he begins facing legitimate competition that he can’t quickly put away. Torres failed to land his only takedown attempt in his last two fights, while stuffing all six of the attempts against him. After dropping out of his last fight during weigh-ins, Torres will obviously be a guy to monitor closely on the scale, assuming he makes it there this time.

Nikolas Motta

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Motta had been scheduled to face Ignacio Bahamondes in April but ended up withdrawing from the fight, which is the 4th time he’s had a fight canceled in his last six bookings. It’s been nine months since Motta notched his first UFC win in a R1 knockout of a terrible Cameron VanCamp, who’s been knocked out in the first round in both of his UFC fights. Prior to that, Motta got knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut against Jim Miller after winning a decision on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC. Following his win on DWCS, Motta had been scheduled to make his UFC debut at three different points but all three matches got canceled and he ended up having to sit on the sidelines for 15 months. Motta went on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil back in 2015 when he was just 22 years old, but was submitted in the second round of his second fight and was relegated back to the regional scene. Seven of Motta’s last nine fights have ended in knockouts (4-3), with the other two going the distance (2-0).

Now 13-4 as a pro, Motta has nine wins by KO/TKO and four decisions. Seven of those knockouts ended in round one, one ended in round two, and the other came in round three. He’s notably the only fighter to ever finish Joe Solecki, which he did in the third round back in 2018. Motta has been finished in all four of his losses, with the last three of those ending in knockouts after he was submitted in the first loss of his career. All four of those losses have ended in under seven minutes. After starting his pro career at 145 lb when he was just 18 years old, Motta moved up to 155 lb in 2015 when he went on TUF Brazil and never looked back.

Overall, Motta is a one-dimensional striker who has solid power in his strikes but has proven himself to be chinny. We’ve yet to see him attempt a takedown in any of his recent fights and he doesn’t appear to offer anything in terms of grappling. He only averages 3.37 SSL/min and he’s generally pretty patient with his striking as he relies more on damage than volume in his fights.

Fight Prediction:

Torres will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.

This sets up as a fun scrap for as long as it lasts, which if Torres’ past history is any indicator won’t be for long. Both guys have been the most dangerous in the first round, with seven of Motta’s nine knockout wins ending in under five minutes and all 12 of Torres’ finishing ending in the opening round. Motta has been finished in the first two rounds all four of his career losses, with three knockouts and one submission, while Torres has been submitted in both of his defeats. However, Motta hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat so he’s not in a position to capitalize on Torres’ vulnerability on the mat. The biggest concern with Torres is his cardio and we expect him to slow down after the opening few minutes. So if Motta can survive to see round two, he’ll put himself in a good spot to land a finish in the later rounds. However, cardio notwithstanding Torres looks like the more explosive and more dangerous of the two and Motta has shown a suspect chin at times in the past. In addition to having a really good shot at landing a quick knockout, Torres also has the ability to submit Motta. We don’t see Motta having the durability to survive long enough to test Torres’ cardio and we’re picking Torres to win in the first round, most likely by knockout.

Our favorite bet here is “Torres R1” at +170.

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DFS Implications:

Torres is coming off a first round knockout win in his UFC debut against a washed up Frank Camacho that was good for 114 DraftKings points. He’s amazingly only been out of the first round once in 15 pro fights, which was in a 2018 split decision win, and all 12 of his early wins along with both of his losses ended in under five minutes. We have legitimate concerns with his cardio if he ever does get extended, but he offers tons of upside and is always looking for quick finishes. He has explosive hands and is also a submission threat, with his 12 first round finishes split evenly between knockouts and submissions. He looks like a boom or bust option that will struggle once he begins facing tougher competition, but this looks like another favorable matchup for him as he takes on an opponent who’s been finished in the first two rounds in all four of his losses. Torres has multiple wins in under 60 seconds and looks like a prime candidate for the Quick Win Bonus on DraftKings, so he has a massive ceiling even if his floor is uncertain. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 30% chance it comes in round one.

Motta is a one-dimensional striker who has yet to make it past the seven minute mark in either of his UFC fights. He got knocked out in the second round of his UFC debut by Jim Miller and then recently landed a first round knockout over a terrible Cameron VanCamp that was good for 110 DraftKings points. He’ll face a tougher test here and we’re not sold on Motta’s durability after he was knocked out in three of his last nine fights. However, he’s a decent striker with nine knockouts on his record and if he can simply survive the first round he may be staring across the Octagon at an exhausted Torres who could be ripe for the picking. We’re just not entirely convinced Motta can last that long and there’s a good chance Torres puts him away early. Nevertheless, if Motta can pull off the upset, it should score well as it will likely end in a knockout and he’ll be a great leverage play against one of the more popular fighters on the card in Torres. The odds imply Motta has a 38% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Pat Sabatini

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, Sabatini got finished in just 69 seconds by Damon Jackson in a R1 TKO. Jackson wobbled Sabatini with a kick up the middle in the opening minute and then shoved him to the mat as Sabatini looked for a desperation takedown, before finishing him with ground and pound. Prior to that loss, Sabatini had won six straight and was 4-0 in the UFC. His only other loss in his last 11 fights was due to a freak arm injury in 2020 that resulted in another R1 TKO, which is the only other time Sabatini has been finished. Three of Sabatini’s four UFC wins have gone the distance, with the other ending in a R1 submission over Jamall Emmers, who also hurt Sabatini early in the first round before succumbing to a heel hook submission.

Now 17-4 as a pro, Sabatini has two wins by KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and five decision victories. All 12 of those finishes occurred in the first two rounds and all of his fights to last longer than 10 minutes have gone the distance. Six of Sabatini’s 10 submission wins came in the first round, but four of his last six ended in round two. He has two R1 TKO losses on his record, although one of those was due to a freak arm injury. His other two losses both went the distance, with a 2015 decision in his third pro fight and a 2018 split decision.

Overall, Sabatini is a Daniel Gracie BJJ black belt and former D1 wrestler. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed 12 takedowns on 28 attempts (42.9% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on four of their seven attempts (42.9% defense). He’s been largely focussed on controlling his opponents opposed to aggressively pushing for finishes since joining the UFC, but he had been a prolific finisher prior to joining the organization. We don’t see much striking volume in his fights, as he’s averaged just 1.67 SSL/min and 1.50 SSA/min. He’s yet to absorb more than 19 significant strikes in a UFC fight or land more than 36.

Lucas Almeida

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Almeida had originally been booked to face Hakeem Dawodu in Canada last week, but Dawodu dropped out a month or so before the fight and Almeida was then matched up with Sabatini here. That’s the third straight time Almeida has had a fight booked only to have his opponent drop out. First he was scheduled to face Zubaira Tukhugov last October, but Tukhugov dropped out due to a botched weight cut. Then he was scheduled to face Andre Fili in February, but Fili withdrew due to an eye injury. And most recently Dawodu dropped out. So while it’s been just over a year since Almeida won his UFC debut against Mike Trizano with a third round knockout, it’s no fault of his own that he hasn’t competed since. Almeida faced some early adversity in that last win, as Trizano dropped him in the first round and had him badly hurt. However, Almeida landed a knockdown of his own in round two and then another in round three before forcing a stoppage through ground and pound. Prior to making his debut, Almeida landed a first round submission on the Brazilian regional scene just three weeks after suffering his first career loss in a decision on DWCS to Daniel Zellhuber. It had been 23 months since Almeida had competed leading up to that loss, but he showed no signs of ring rust as he came out ultra aggressively and landed 52 significant strikes in the first round alone. However, we did see his pace slow in the later rounds, where he landed a combined 44 significant strikes.

Now 14-1 as a pro, Almeida has a 100% finishing rate with nine wins by KO/TKO and five submissions. He has eight first round wins, three in round two, two in round three, and another in round five. However, while 11 of his 15 pro fights ended in the first two rounds, four of his last five have made it to round three and his last three knockout wins all occurred in the final rounds of fights. His only career loss was also the only time he’s ever required the judges, which was when he went on DWCS. Almeida has fought anywhere from 145 lb to 170 lb in the past, but has mostly been fighting at 155 lb since 2017. He dropped back down to 145 lb for his debut, where he previously hadn’t competed since 2016, and that’s where this next fight will be as well.

Overall, Almeida is an aggressive finisher who throws all of his strikes with fight-ending intentions. He holds black belts in kickboxing, Muay Thai, and BJJ, but relies mostly on his striking to win fights. He rarely looks to land any takedowns, although did lock up a first round guillotine in his second most recent fight. While he’s only been taken down once on two attempts between his DWCS appearance and his UFC debut, he got put on his back at multiple points in a 2019 Jungle Fight match, although still went on to land a violent third round knockout via flying knee. After competing at 155 lb from 2017 to 2021 with a quick stop up at 170 lb over that time, he’s now fighting down at 145 lb and likely cutting a good amount of weight to get there. We may have seen the impact from that in his last match when he got badly wobbled in the first round, and the larger cut could leave his chin somewhat compromised. Just something to consider moving forward.

Fight Prediction:

Almeida will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as a grappler versus striker battle where the winner will likely be determined by where the fight takes place. While both guys are technically BJJ black belts, Sabatini is a far superior wrestler and should be looking to get this fight to the ground early and often. The biggest concern with Sabatini has been his chin, and we’ve seen him hurt more than once early in the first round of UFC fights. That’s obviously concerning as he takes on a heavy-handed brawler, but as soon as Sabatini can get this fight to the ground he should be in firm control. While Almeida has yet to be finished in his career, he very much has a kill or get killed style of fighting to him. That almost resulted in him getting knocked out in the first round of his last fight and there’s always a chance he’s so focussed on defending takedowns that he leaves his hands low and his chin high and gets caught with something on the feet. With that said, Sabatini is far more likely to lock up a submission or grind out another decision on the mat than land a knockout, but we can’t completely eliminate any of those possibilities. And while Almeida is primarily a knockout threat, he will look for submissions as well, although we’d be surprised to see him lock something up against an experienced grappler like Sabatini. So Almeida’s most realistic path to victory will be to land a knockout before he gets taken down, which he certainly has a shot of doing. However, we like Sabatini’s chances of getting Almeida down and either locking up a submission in the first two rounds or winning a grappling-heavy decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Almeida KO” at +420.

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DFS Implications:

Sabatini is a BJJ black belt and former D1 wrestler who’s only required the judges in 5 of his 17 career wins. All 12 of his finishes have occurred in the first two rounds and his decisions end in grappling-heavy wrestling matches. That leaves him with both a solid floor and ceiling in his wins on DraftKings, but he’s reliant on landing finishes on FanDuel. While Sabatini managed to put up DraftKings scores of 106 and 105 in his last two decision wins, at his higher salary he could still get priced out of winning lineups with a similar score here. He scored a stone minimum 90 DraftKings points in a first round submission win, which is his only finish in the UFC, while also putting up a donut in his last outing where he was quickly knocked out. So we’ve yet to see any true ceiling performances from him, but on the bright side that should help to keep his ownership in check, especially after his recent dud and with his high price tag. Almeida’s up-tempo pace could also translate into more activity for Sabatini, further adding to his tournament appeal. There’s definitely a chance Sabatini gets knocked out again, but as long as he doesn’t he’ll have a good shot at putting up a career best DraftKings score. The odds imply Sabatini has a 62% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.

Almeida is an aggressive brawler with heavy hands and a 100% finishing rate. He nearly got knocked out in the first round of his last fight, but narrowly hung on and bounced back with a late round knockout of his own that was good for 103 DraftKings points with the help of a pair of knockdowns. Now he faces an opponent in Sabatini who is coming off a R1 TKO loss to a far less dangerous striker in Damon Jackson, which should get people more excited about Almeida’s chances of landing another knockout. Just keep in mind, Sabatini will be looking to take Almeida down and control him on the mat, limiting Almeida’s opportunities to land a knockout or rack up striking volume. So the window to land a knockout will be a narrow one and a later round finish could fail to score well if he spends the fight on his back up to that point. However, at his cheaper price tag he could still potentially serve as a value play even without putting up a huge score. The odds imply Almeida has a 38% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Christian Duncan

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Duncan’s recent UFC debut ended unceremoniously before it ever really began when Dusko Todorovic randomly blew out his knee in a freak injury less than two minutes into the first round. The two fighters were engaged in the clinch and Todorovic twisted on his knee in the wrong way and simply crumpled to the mat as the fight was immediately stopped. Prior to that anticlimactic debut win, Duncan won a pair of Middleweight title fights with Cage Warriors. Both of those fights were scheduled to go five rounds, but neither made it past the 11 minute mark, with one ending early in round three and the other late in round one. While the undefeated Duncan only turned pro in September 2020 and has just eight pro fights under his belt, he had a lengthy amateur career prior to that. While he’s only required the judges once as a pro, he went 5-6 in amateur fights that went the distance and has generally been reliant on landing finishes both as a pro and an amateur.

Now 8-0 as a pro, Duncan has six wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and one decision victory. He has four first round finishes, two in round, and one in round three. Both of his second round finishes came in the opening 18 seconds of round two, while his lone third round finish occurred in the opening minute of round three. So he likes to come out hot early in rounds and six of his eight pro fights have ended in under five and a half minutes.

Overall, Duncan is a dangerous striker who likes to mix in flashy strikes like jumping knees, spinning back elbows, and roundhouse kicks. One consistent issue we’ve seen from him is a tendency to leave his fingers outstretched and he’ll run the risk of poking opponents in their eyes until he fixes that. He also struggles off his back and doesn’t offer a ton in terms of grappling. Because of that and his dangerous striking, opponents are often looking to take him down, which has often resulted in lower striking totals in his fights. It will be interesting to see how his takedown defense holds up at the UFC level, although he shouldn’t have to worry much about that here as he takes on another one-dimensional striker.

Armen Petrosyan

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Petrosyan is coming off a decision win over A.J. Dobson and has gone the distance in all three of his UFC fights, after all seven of his pre-UFC matches ended in knockouts. Petrosyan was able to double up Dobson in significant strikes 118-58. And while Dobson landed all three of his takedown attempts, he finished with just 49 seconds of control time. Prior to that, Petrosyan got smothered on the mat for three rounds in a decision loss to Caio Borralho, after winning a split decision in his UFC debut against Gregory Rodrigues, who opted not to utilize his grappling for most of the match. Petrosyan originally punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round knockout on DWCS in October 2021.

Now 8-2 as a pro, Petrosyan has six wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. The only early loss of his career came in a 2021 63 second R1 KO, with his one other defeat coming in a 2022 decision. His last two, and three of his six knockout wins occurred in round one, while he has two second round finishes, and one in round three. His last four early wins have all occurred in the first two rounds. Petrosyan fought his last five fights prior to joining the UFC up at 205 lb, but dropped down to 185 lb for his debut, where it appears he’ll stay.

Overall, Petrosyan is a karate black belt and a former Muay Thai world champion. He’s a pure striker who offers absolutely nothing in terms of grappling and he tends to give up his back when trying to return to his feet after getting taken down. Apparently he went to Dagestan prior to going on DWCS to work on his defensive wrestling, so he’s at least trying to improve that gaping hole in his game, but we’ve yet to see any major improvements. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s been taken down 12 times on 16 opponent attempts (25% defense), while failing to land the only takedown he attempted. He throws a ton of leg kicks, landing 52 in his last fight, 26 in his fight before that (despite being taken down four times and controlled for 10 minutes), and 39 in his UFC debut.

Fight Prediction:

Petrosyan will have a 1” height advantage, but Duncan will have an 8” reach advantage. Duncan is five years younger than the 32-year-old Petrosyan.

Both of these fighters are essentially one-dimensional strikers who have struggled with being controlled at times, although Duncan will occasionally mix in a takedown attempt and did land a submission in 2021. Petrosyan is the busier striker and is constantly peppering his opponents with leg kicks, while Duncan is more patient and focussed on landing the more seminal blows. That should give Petrosyan the advantage if this fight goes the distance, unless Duncan suddenly comes in with a grappling-heavy game plan to exploit Petrosyan’s glaring deficiency on the mat. While it would make sense for him to at least try and mix in some takedowns, we’d be surprised if Duncan suddenly looked like a world-class grappler and smothered Petrosyan on the mat for three rounds, although it’s not entirely impossible based on how bad Petrosyan has been on the ground. Both guys have been durable, with only one early loss between them, which makes it tougher to know if we’ll see a finish or not. However, they also both have the power to knock the other one out and it’s not out of the question that Duncan could submit Petrosyan. With that said, Petrosyan was able to survive on the mat against high-level grapplers in Gregory Rodrigues and Caio Borralho, so we don’t expect Duncan to submit him. In what should be a close fight, Duncan is the more likely of the two to find a finish, while we slightly prefer Petrosyan’s chances if it goes the distance due to his higher output—although if Duncan wrestles more that could swing things in his favor. This is a trickier fight to predict, but forced to choose we’ll say Petrosyan wins a close decision.

Our favorite bet here is ​​Petrosyan’s ML at +135.

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DFS Implications:

Duncan’s recent R1 TKO win doesn’t tell us anything, as the fight was stopped 112 seconds in after Dusko Todorovic blew out his knee in a freak injury. So we’re almost treating this as if it were Duncan’s UFC debut, although perhaps he’ll have gotten the Octagon jitters out of the way after making the walk into the Octagon once already, in front of his home crowd on a PPV card no less. Duncan is a powerful striker with a history of landing finishes and has only been to one decision in eight pro fights, but will face another dangerous striker in this matchup. It’s possible that could have Duncan looking to wrestle more, as Petrosyan’s ground game is absolutely dreadful. However, we’ve yet to see Duncan land more than a single takedown in any of his recent Cage Warriors fights, lowering the chances that he puts on a dominant grappling performance. The more likely outcome is that this plays out largely as a striking battle, with Duncan only looking for occasional takedowns to mix things up. And in that scenario, Duncan will need to find a finish to score well, as he doesn’t throw enough volume to score well in a decision. The odds imply Duncan has a 57% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Petrosyan had a 100% finishing rate prior to joining the UFC, but we’ve yet to see that translate to the next level as all three of his UFC matches have gone the distance. He’s shown the ability to push up large striking totals, landing 118 and 127 significant strikes in his two wins, but offers nothing in terms of grappling. Because of that, he still only scored 77 and 81 respective DraftKings points in those two victories. While there’s a slight chance a similar score could allow him to serve as a value play at his cheap price tag here, he more likely needs a finish to be useful. Not only has Duncan never been finished, he’s never lost a fight as a pro, so this doesn’t look like a great spot for Petrosyan to find his first UFC knockout. With that said, most opponents are looking to exploit Petrosyan’s terrible ground game, and it remains to be seen if Duncan will come in with that approach. If he doesn’t, Petrosyan may have more opportunities to find the knockout he needs to score well. With all that said, both guys are boom or bust and the oddsmakers have shaded the over, indicating there’s a good chance it does make it to the judges and ultimately busts. The odds imply Petrosyan has a 43% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Arman Tsarukyan

9th UFC Fight (6-2)

Tsarukyan is coming off an impressive 30-27 unanimous decision win over Damir Ismagulov, who had won 19 straight fights coming in. Ismagulov also entered that matchup with an elite 90% takedown defense and it didn’t even matter as Tsarukyan took him down seven times and controlled him for nine and a half minutes. Prior to that, Tsarukyan lost a close five-round decision to Mateusz Gamrot after winning five straight fights, following a decision loss to Islam Makhachev in his 2019 short notice UFC debut. While six of Tsarukyan’s eight UFC fights have gone the distance, two of his last three wins ended in knockouts in the opening seven minutes of fights. He’s still just 26 years old and has won 18 of his last 20 fights.

Now 19-3 as a pro, Tsarukyan has seven wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and seven decisions. The only time he’s been finished came in a 30 second R1 KO in his second pro fight back in 2015 when he was just 19 years old, with his other two losses going the distance against world-class wrestlers. Twelve of his last 13 fights have seen the second round, with 11 making it to round three, and nine going the distance. His last four finishes have all come by KO/TKO, with one in round one, another in round two, and two in round three. He hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017, two years prior to joining the UFC.

Overall, Tsarukyan is a high-level wrestler who also has solid striking. We’ve seen him transform from a bright prospect to an up-and-coming contender, and his only weakness is that he can’t convince anybody to fight him.

Tsarukyan has landed 24 takedowns on 72 attempts (33.3%) in his eight UFC fights, while he’s been taken down by his opponents 10 times on 40 attempts (75% defense). Four of those takedowns surrendered were against Islam Makhachev in Tsarukyan’s UFC debut, while the other six came against Gamrot. Tsarukyan is 5-0 in the UFC when he’s led in takedowns and 0-2 when he’s trailed, while he also has a first round TKO win where no takedowns were landed. He only averages 3.56 SSL/min and 1.93 SSA/min and we’ve yet to see him involved in any high volume striking battles. He’s a smart fighter who generally avoids putting himself in unnecessarily dangerous situations and he’ll be competing for a title before long.

Joaquim Silva

9th UFC Fight (5-3)

Silva is coming off a second round knockout win over Jesse Ronson, who had just been submitted following a PED suspension and was cut following his second straight early loss. Prior to that win, Silva was knocked out in back-to-back fights and hadn’t won a match since 2018. He’s struggled with inactivity and has only fought three times since 2018 and only twice since 2019. His last loss only took 37 seconds before lifetime decision grinder Ricky Glenn knocked him out.

Now 12-3 as a pro, Silva has seven wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss, and his last four fights all ended in knockouts (2-2). Silva started his career at 170 lb before dropping down to 155 lb when he went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2015.

Overall, Silva has been largely unimpressive in the UFC and his looks dubious at best. Despite being a BJJ black belt, Silva has only shot for two takedowns in his eight UFC fights, and landed just one of those. He’s also failed to land more than 49 significant strikes in seven of his eight UFC matches with the one exception coming when he landed 95 against Jared Gordon. Silva has just two wins in the last six years and is now walking into an ambush.

Fight Prediction:

Silva will have a 1” height advantage, but Tsarukyan will have a 3” reach advantage. Tsarukyan is also eight years younger than the 34-year-old Silva.

The UFC couldn’t find anyone ranked to fight Tsarukyan so they took a hostage in Silva and forced him into the Octagon at gunpoint. This matchup serves no point except to provide Tsarukyan with a highlight reel finish and increase his exposure to casual fans. Sure it’s a fight and anything can happen inside the Octagon, but Silva will need to land a hail mary knockout or have Tsarukyan suffer some sort of freak injury to pull off the upset and honestly his chances of winning are even lower than the incredibly wide odds suggest. Tsarukyan can do whatever he wants in this fight. He can finish it on the feet, on the mat, while doing a handstand, or as he eats a sandwich. The only question is how he finishes the fight. It would be surprising to see him lock up a submission, and we fully expect to see a knockout either on the feet or through ground and pound in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at -150.

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DFS Implications:

Tsarukyan has averaged 103 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, scoring 99 or more in the last four of those, after notching totals of just 86 and 82 in the first two UFC victories. His recent scoring success has been tied to his ability to land finishes and/or dominate opponents on the ground and even when he recently went against the elite 90% takedown defense of Damir Ismagulov, he still landed seven takedowns. Now he’ll get a massive step down in competition as the UFC was just desperate to get him a warm body after everyone ranked around him would rather go full hara-kiri than be forced to fight him. In his last three fights against non-elite level competition, Tsarukyan averaged a ridiculous 118 DraftKings points and he has the highest scoring potential on the slate. He’s fully deserving of his unusually high price tag, although that does at least create a slight chance he could get priced out of tournament winning lineups if we see a more efficient finish out of him. However, because he usually does such a good job of filling up the stat sheet with grappling and ground and pound, it’s tougher to see him not putting up another big score. Just keep in mind, he’ll be the highest owned fighter on the card by a very wide margin. The odds imply he has an 88% chance to win, a 66% chance to land a finish, and a 43% chance it comes in round one.

Silva might as well be fighting a bear and the chances of him winning are even lower than the odds suggest if you ask us. His only chance will be to land a flukey hail mary knockout or have Tsarukyan suffer some sort of random freak injury. Obviously he would be the leverage play of the century if either of those happened, but you’re likely just lighting money on fire with lineups that include him. He can’t win a decision and he wouldn’t score well even if he did, so there’s no point even talking about that. The odds imply he has a 12% chance to win, a 7% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Jared Cannonier

16th UFC Fight (9-6)

Coming off a close five-round split-decision win over Sean Strickland, Cannonier has gone the distance in four of his last five fights. His only fight to end early since 2019 was a 2022 R2 knockout win over Derek Brunson, who’s now been knocked out in seven of his nine career losses. Prior to that finish, Cannonier won a five-round decision over Kelvin Gastelum, after losing a three-round decision to Robert Whittaker. The knockout win over Brunson propelled Cannonier into his long awaited title shot. After years of working towards that moment as he transformed his body from a 240 lb Heavyweight to a 185 lb Middleweight, Cannonier finally got his chance against Israel Adesanya and lost a disappointing decision. The losses to Adesanya and Whittaker are the only two times Cannonier has tasted defeat since dropping down to 185 lb in 2018. He actually made his UFC debut all the way up at Heavyweight in 2015, but after starting off 1-1 he dropped down to Light Heavyweight. He went 2-3 at Light Heavyweight before making the move down to Middleweight, where he’s since gone 6-2.

Now 16-6 as a pro, Cannonier has 10 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. Both of his submission wins came very early in his career, in 2011 and 2013, when he was still fighting in Alaska. While the first five knockout wins of his career ended in round one, four of his last five KO wins occurred in the later rounds, with three in round two and one in round three. He’s also been knocked out twice, and has three decision defeats. Both of his KO losses ended in the first round, although one of those was at Heavyweight and the other was at Light Heavyweight. He’s never been finished at 185 lb.

This will be the 5th five-round fight of Cannonier’s UFC career. His first was in 2019 against Jack Hermansson and he won in an early second round KO. His last three five-round fights all went the distance, with a 2021 win over Kelvin Gastelum, a 2022 loss to Israel Adesanya, and then his recent split-decision win over Sean Strickland. The striking numbers were pretty close in all of those decisions, but Cannonier finished behind in all of them. Gastelum outlanded him 89-81 in significant strikes, Adesanya finished ahead 116-90, and Strickland led 152-141. Only one takedown was landed in those 15 rounds of action, which was by Strickland.

Overall, Cannonier is a powerful but patient striker, who throws violent leg kicks and has demonstrated a really solid takedown defense since dropping down to 185 lb. In his eight fights since making the move down, he’s successfully defended 32 of the 40 attempts against him (80% defense). It’s rare to see Cannonier land any takedowns of his own and he’s only attempted eight in 15 UFC fights, completing just two of those. He only averages 4.00 SSL/min, but said after the Adesanya fight he realized he needs to increase his output and his actions backed up his words as he proceeded to land a career best 141 significant strikes against Strickland (5.64 SSL/min), after failing to top 90 in his previous 14 UFC fights and only averaging 3.73 SSL/min in those 14 matches. While one of Cannonier’s best weapons are his leg kicks, he tends to throw fewer of those against grapplers as he’s worried about getting taken down if he goes to that well too often.

Marvin Vettori

15th UFC Fight (9-4-1)

Continuing to trade decision wins and losses over his last five fights, Vettori is fresh off a three-round decision win over Roman Dolidze. Vettori relied heavily on leg kicks in the fight, which he landed 38 of, as he outlanded his way to victory, finishing ahead in striking 106-71. While Vettori generally relies heavily on his grappling, he never even attempted a takedown in that fight, while Dolidze failed to land his only attempt. Prior to that win, Vettori lost a slower paced three-round decision to Robert Whittaker, won a high-volume five-round decision over Paulo Costa, lost a low-volume five-round decision to Israel Adesanya, won a grappling-heavy five-round decision over Kevin Holland, and won a high-volume five-round decision against Jack Hermansson. Twelve of Vettori’s last 13 fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 submission win over Karl Roberson. Vettori’s only other UFC fight to end early was a first round submission win in his 2016 UFC debut. After losing a 2016 decision to Antonio Carlos Jr. in his second UFC fight, Vettori has gone 8-3-1 in his last 12 matches, with his only three losses over that stretch coming against Israel Adesanya (x2) and Robert Whittaker.

Now 19-6-1 as a pro, Vettori has two wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and eight decision victories. All 11 of Vettori’s early wins occurred in the first round, but five of those came in his first six pro fights from 2013 to 2014 and he only has one finish since 2016, which was a 2020 R1 submission over the highly submittable Karl Roberson. He’s never been finished, with all six of his losses going the distance. Vettori started his pro career in 2012 at 170 lb, but moved up to 185 lb in 2016 and it looked like it took him a little while to really fill out at 185 lb.

This will be the 6th five-round fight of Vettori’s career and 5th in the UFC. His one five-round fight before joining the UFC ended in a 2015 R1 KO win. All four of his UFC five-round fights went the distance (3-1), with two of those playing out as high-volume striking battles (2-0), where Vettori only landed 1 of his 6 takedown attempts against Jack Hermansson and Paulo Costa. Vettori was far more focussed on his grappling in the other two, where he combined to land 15 of his 31 takedown attempts against Israel Adesanya and Kevin Holland.

Overall, Vettori started off as a pure grappler, but has continued to improve his striking in recent years. He’s generally looking to take the path of least resistance, so expect him to grapple with strikers and strike with grapplers. He’s shown the ability to put up big striking and takedown totals in five-round fights and he averages 4.38 SSL/min and 1.8 TDL/15 min. He’s landed 27 takedowns on 61 attempts (44.3% accuracy) in his 14 UFC fights, while his opponents have taken him down 9 times on 36 attempts (75% defense). Five of the nine times he’s been taken down occurred in his first two UFC fights, and since then he’s only been taken down 4 times on 21 attempts (81% defense). Vettori has proven himself to be very durable, but has yet to knock anybody out in the UFC. While he’s somewhat of a submission threat, he still generally relies on outworking his way to decision wins.

Fight Prediction:

Vettori will have a 1” height advantage, but Cannonier will have a 3” reach advantage. Vettori is 10 years younger than the 39-year-old Cannonier.

It’s abundantly clear where the advantages lie in this fight. Cannonier is clearly the more powerful of the two, while Vettori is the superior grappler, while also being the busier striker. They’re both extremely durable and Cannonier has shown a really solid 80% takedown defense since dropping down to 185 lb. That could largely negate the grappling of Vettori and turn this into more of a striking battle. At that point, we expect it to look a lot like Cannonier’s last fight against Strickland, where the judges will be forced to pick a winner in a series of close rounds where Vettori will likely hold a striking lead but Cannonier will be landing the more impactful blows. You might as well flip a coin at that point, as you never know what the judges will value more on that day. With that said, based on the potential for Vettori to add something with his grappling, while also being the younger and busier fighter, we’ll give him the slight edge to get his hand raised in a decision, but we expect this one to be razor close and another split is entirely possible.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -156.

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DFS Implications:

Cannonier has historically been a patient low-volume striker, who averages just 4.00 SSL/min and has only landed two takedowns in 15 UFC appearances. However, he did land a career-best 141 significant strikes in his last fight and recently said he’s working on increasing his output. Nevertheless, he still only scored 86 DraftKings points in that five-round split-decision win, after totaling just 74 points in a five-round decision win over Kelvin Gastelum in 2021. He also only put up 54 points in a five-round decision loss in his second most recent fight, so he’s yet to show he can score well with the judges, even when he has five rounds to work with. Cannonier also hasn’t scored especially well with mid-round finishes, which has been where the majority of his UFC finishes have come. That leaves him reliant on either landing an early knockout or multiple knockdowns to be useful in DFS and now he’s facing an opponent who’s never been finished in his career and has also never been knocked down in 14 UFC fights. So even if Cannonier does win this coinflip matchup, there’s still a good chance he won’t put up a big score. While his cheaper price tag will make it easier for him to crack winning tournament lineups, on a slate this size his chances of serving as a value play are lower. The odds imply Cannonier has a 48% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Vetorri averaged 136 DraftKings points in his three five-round decision wins, but those all came in much more favorable spots than this. Despite only landing a single takedown in his last five-round decision win, he scored 122 DraftKings points on the back of 190 significant strikes landed against Paulo Costa. Just keep in mind, Costa averages 6.38 SSA/min, while Cannonier averages just 3.86 SSA/min. In his second most recent five-round decision win, Vetorri scored an insane 156 DraftKings points against Kevin Holland, but that required him landing 11 takedowns with 20 minutes of control time against the non-existent takedown defense of Holland. Cannonier is most certainly not Kevin Holland and his takedown defense has improved to 80% since he dropped down to 185 lb, which should prove a tough test for Vetorri to overcome. Vetorri’s one other five-round decision win was arguably his most impressive when you consider the circumstances, as he took on Jack Hermansson on short notice and scored 129 DraftKings points, while seeing the championship rounds for the first time in his career. Vetorri failed to land his only takedown in the fight but knocked Hermansson down once and was able to force him into a high-volume striking battle that seemed to catch Hermansson off guard. Just keep in mind, Hermansson is not nearly as dangerous of a knockout threat as Cannonier and Vetorri will need to be more mindful of what’s coming back his way in this next match. Nevertheless, Vetorri has shown the ability to score well in five-round fights even when he can’t get his grappling going, although that will be put to the test here as this is an all around really tough matchup for him. Similar to Cannonier, Vetorri’s cheaper price tag does increase his potential to find his way into winning lineups even without a huge score, but a win alone will not guarantee him a spot in the optimal. The odds imply Vetorri has a 52% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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