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Note: The Blaydes fight is off after he tested positive for COVID and Smith vs. Clark has been switched to a five round main event!
Fighter Notes:
Luke Sanders
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Now 34 years old, Sanders is 21 months removed since his last fight. In a recent interview he talked about how he fought with a torn ACL for his last five fights, which he finally got fixed after his last match. He also just had a baby, which is obviously more complicated during a pandemic and that’s what caused him to pull out of his August 1st fight against Chris Gutierrez.
The last time we saw Sanders he landed a R2 KO in February 2019 against Renan Barao. Five of his six UFC fights have now ended early, while the only one to make it past the second round ended in a 2018 decision win over Patrick Williams.
Sanders came into the UFC in 2016 with a perfect 10-0 record, with seven of those wins coming early. He won his UFC debut with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission, but has since lost three of his last five fights. His first UFC loss came by Kneebar Submission in a fight that he seemed to be dominating. He did lose a point for an illegal knee in that match, but he looked close to finishing the fight with a KO before getting caught out of position and eventually submitted in R2. His next fight also ended in R2, this time by KO. Sanders could be seen contesting the stoppage after he popped right back up, but he definitely got caught with a clean right hook.
He bounced back from the pair of losses with a decision win, but was then submitted in R1 of his second most recent fight by Heel Hook. He seems a little susceptible to leg submissions, but Maness only has two submission wins to his name: a 2013 Rear-Naked Choke and a 2017 Brabo Choke. Also, Maness has made it clear he’s looking for a standup battle in this one.
Following the 2018 R1 Heel Hook Submission loss, Sanders landed a R2 KO on what looks to be a washed up Renan Barao, who’s now lost five in a row and seven of his last eight fights. Barao didn’t look terrible in the fight, but his 1-7 record over the last five years seems to speak for itself.
Sanders started his pro career at 145 lb before making the switch down to 135 lb. He did fight his UFC debut up at 145 lb, but has exclusively fought at 135 lb since. This fight had been scheduled to be at 135 lb, however it was switched late to a 140 lb catchweight. It’s unclear as of now who requested the weight allowance.
Sanders is a high-volume stand up striker who’s not looking to take the fight to the ground. He has just one takedown and one submission attempt in his six UFC fights. He’s really looking to knock opponents out and seven of his 13 career wins have come by KO.
Nate Maness
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)After winning a low-volume decision in his August UFC debut against grappler Johnny Munoz Jr., Maness will get to compete where he’s more comfortable in a stand-up striking battle. Despite Munoz outlanding Maness 49-21 in significant strikes and 2-1 in takedowns, Maness was given the nod in the decision partially due to Munhoz being deducted a point for multiple inadvertent cup shots. Honestly, it seemed like Munhoz won the fight not counting the point deduction, so it easily could have been ruled a draw. The vast majority of the fight was spent with Munoz pushing Maness up against the cage. Also notable, Maness fought his debut at 145 lb but said he prefers to fight in the 135 lb division.
He discussed in a recent interview how he wants to throw down in this next fight and thinks it has the potential to be the fight of the night. He also talked about how he’s stepped away from his previous full time job as a roofer to focus 100% on training. So he’s very likely to be bonus hunting.
Fighting out of the Kentucky regional scene, Maness’ only career loss came in a 2019 R3 KO. Half of his 12 pro wins came early, with the other six ending in decisions. His last three fights prior to joining the UFC all ended in KO’s, two of which he won.
Fight Prediction:
Maness will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage in this fight. He’s also fought three times since Sanders’ last match, so clearly he’s been the much more active fighter. With that said, Maness has never fought anyone with any UFC experience before, and his lone UFC fight came against an opponent in Munoz who was also making his UFC debut, and on just one day’s notice. We think both guys are coming into this fight with the ability and mindset to knock the other one out. Based on his experience and what we’ve seen on tape, we’ll give the edge to Sanders in this one, but as the close odds indicate, this fight could go either way. Whoever wins, we like it to end with a KO so the ITD line that opened at +145 is definitely interesting, as is the Sanders R2 KO line at +1200.
DFS Implications:
We think there’s a high probability that the winner of this fight ends up in optimal lineups. Maness’ low-volume decision in his last fight should help to keep his ownership in control, making him an interesting leverage play, as most people will opt to play Sanders instead. We think you’ll want to be somewhat over the field on both guys as we’re banking on the winner of this one being a top six DFS score on the slate. However, with that said, because we’re banking entirely on volume and finishes and there will likely be little to no grappling stats to prop up scores, there are certainly ways this fight fails if we don’t get the firefight we’re expecting.
Su Mudaerji
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Following a 15 month layoff, Mudaerji is coming off his first UFC win and also his first fight to require the judges. Mudaerji is now 1-1 in the UFC and 12-4 as a pro. His first 15 fights all ended early, with him coming out victorious in 11 of them. Ten of those 11 early wins came by KO, including eight in R1. His lone submission victory came in R3 of a 2016 match. He appears most vulnerable on the ground and all four of his career losses have been by submission—2016 R1 Armbar, 2018 R3 Choke, 2018 R2 Choke, and a 2018 R2 Armbar.
He made his UFC debut in November 2018 against a motivated Louis Smolka. In what was Smolka’s first fight back with the UFC, he submitted Mudaerji with a R2 Armbar after controlling the fight up to that point.
Mudaerji bounced back from the loss with a dominating decision win (30-26, 30-26, 30-25) over Andre Soukhamthath in his most recent fight. Soukhamthath could be heard saying he broke his left hand after the first round, which obviously hurt his chances. Following the loss, Soukhamthath was released by the UFC leaving with a record of 2-5. Soukhamthath has never been finished in any of his 22 pro fights and interestingly his only UFC fight to end early was a R2 KO of Luke Sanders in 2017. Anyways back to Mudaerji.
Very light on his feet, Mudaerji is a quick striker who throws lots of side and spinning kicks. He uses his length well to come in and out of range, making it tougher on his opponents to land strikes on him.
He fought his first two UFC fights at Bantamweight (135 lb), but will be moving down to Flyweight (125 lb) for this fight. He did fight at both weight classes earlier in his career, but he looked pretty lean at 135 lb, so it’s a little crazy he can even make 125 lb. Mudaerji had been scheduled to fight Bruno Silva back in March but withdrew for unknown reasons.
"Su is an absolute ninja!...The Flyweights rarely disapoint and this one will not either!"
-Dana White on Mudaerji vs. Gordon
Malcolm Gordon
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a R1 Submission loss in his short notice UFC debut against Amir Albazi back in July, Gordon’s last eight fights have all ended early (6-2)—including seven in R1—and only two of his 16 pro fights have made it to the judges. He won both of those decisions back in 2014 and 2015. Prior to getting submitted in his UFC debut, all three of his losses had come by KO—two in R2 and one in R1. He looks pretty hittable on tape, so that makes complete sense.
He came into the UFC on a four fight win streak, with three of those coming in R1 and one in R2. Three of those wins came by submission with the fourth coming in a 17 second R1 KO. Of his 10 career early wins, six were by submission and four by KO.
Fight Prediction:
This fight seems destined to end with either a KO for Mudaerji (most likely) or a submission for Gordon. Gordon will likely struggle to keep up with Mudaerji’s striking, so you would think he would want to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible, however we’re not entirely confident that he will. Watching his tape, it seems like he overestimates both his striking ability and his durability, so we could see him stubbornly stay on his feet until he inevitably gets KO’d in this fight. It’s hard to predict with much certainty what his game plan will be, but we think his only chance is to get this fight to the mat. If he looks to stay standing, we’re looking for him to get KO’d early. The “Mudaerji wins by R2 KO” +550 line and the” Gordon wins by R2 Submission” +1600 are both interesting but there’s a good chance this one doesn’t make it to a second round. The safer bets would be an anytime KO for Mudaerji at +130 or a Gordon Submission at +600.
DFS Implications:
While Mudaerji has one of the highest R1 KO chances on the slate, he’s pretty much entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well in DFS. While we do think his chances of getting the finish are high, it’s unlikely he scores enough at his price to be useful in a decision.
Gordon is unlikely to win this fight, but if he does he’s almost a lock to be in winning lineups. He’s not going to outstrike Mudaerji, so the only ways he can win are either with an early finish or by dominating Mudaerji on the ground for the majority of the fight. The latter is less likely so you’re really betting on an early finish if you play Gordon.
Gina Mazany
6th UFC Fight (1-4)Coming off a blitzing 22 second R1 KO loss against Julia Avila back in June, Mazany has now lost her last three UFC fights with the most recent two ending in the first two minutes. Earlier this year, she did land a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win on the regional scene after getting dropped by the UFC in 2019. The win was enough to get her another chance in the UFC, but clearly she’s on thin ice.
Mazany also lost her 2017 UFC debut in just 74 seconds meaning that three of her four UFC losses have come in under two minutes. Her lone UFC win came in a decision against a fighter making her UFC debut, who appeared to suffer a shoulder injury at the end of the second round. Mazany’s fourth UFC loss came in a 2018 decision.
Mazany originally went pro in 2008 the day after her 20th birthday. However, after fighting once in 2008 and once in 2009, she didn’t fight again until 2013. And then after that 2013 fight, she didn’t fight again until 2016. She’s now fought just 10 times in 12 years, with six of those coming since joining the UFC in 2017.
Mazany did win all four of those pre-UFC fights, including three in R1. However, those came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-1, and 2-1. Those three women combined to go 0-1 following their losses to Mazany, so we probably shouldn’t read too much into those victories. So while 7 of her 10 pro fights have ended in R1, the first three wins among those seem less telling than the three she lost in the UFC.
In a recent interview, Mazany discussed how she switched gyms and moved from Vegas to Missouri to train with James Krause at Glory MMA & Fitness. She also said that when she left her last fight she thought she was done and didn’t want to fight anymore. However, she now claims she has a renewed passion and wants to fight as much as possible so she seems a little all over the place.
Another big change for Mazany is that after fighting at 135 lb for her entire career she is now dropping down to 125 lb for the first time. She talked about how this will be the first time she’s ever been taller than her opponent. While we don’t think Mazany is a very talented fighter, she couldn’t ask for a much easier opponent.
Rachael Ostovich
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Fresh off a 1-year suspension for violating the anti-doping policy, the enhancement junkie Ostovich is coming off a R2 Armbar Submission loss against the recently banished, and fellow Instagram enthusiast, Paige VanZant. Following her suspension and subsequent 22 month layoff, Ostovich comes into this fight 4-5 as a pro, on a two fight losing streak and 1-2 in the UFC—with her only win coming on The Ultimate Fighter Finale against 3-3 (0-1 in the UFC) Karine Gevorgyan, who’s lost three of her last four fights.
Ostovich has now also lost three of her last four fights, as well as four of her last six. A one dimensional grappler, Ostovich doesn’t offer a ton in the stand up game and has landed just 53 significant strikes combined in her three UFC fights (2.32 SSL/min). However, she did land four takedowns and four advances in her last match and Mazany has a putrid 20% takedown defense. Taking Mazany down and submitting her will likely be Ostovich’s sole path to success in this fight. Mazany has been submitted one time in her 10 pro fights, which came in 2017 UFC debut by way of R1 Arm-Triangle Choke against UFC veteran and submission specialist Sara McMann.
Ostovich does a poor job of defending herself once mounted. Both of her last two submission losses began with ground and pound and were finished with submissions. Once grounded, Ostovich has shown a tendency to voluntarily give up her back from bottom position opposed to fighting out of full guard. Maybe she’s trying to protect her investments, who knows, but it has led to her being submitted in each of her last two fights. After almost two years away from the UFC, she should have had ample time to realize the mistake she’s been making and correct it, but you never know.
Fight Prediction:
Mazany will have a 3” height advantage and a 6” reach advantage in this fight. Having lost her last two UFC fights by KO in the first two minutes of action, Mazany has shown she’s susceptible to getting blitzed with strikes early on in fights. Fortunately for her, she’s not going against a striker in this one. With a wrestling background, Ostovich should look to take this one to the ground early and often. When you combine her 100% takedown accuracy (5 for 5 in the UFC) with Mazany’s 20% takedown defense, you would think that Ostovich should have a lot of success with takedowns. Once Ostovich gets opponents down she is typically looking for submissions on the ground, and two of her four career wins have come by Armbar.
However, if Mazany can keep the fight standing up or reverse the position on the mat, we think she can either outstrike her way to a decision or take Ostovich’s back and choke her out of this fight.
This is another one of those fights where we would love to bet against both of these fighters, as they’ve each shown a propensity for losing early. However, since we can’t do that, we think that Mazany’s size advantage after dropping down a weight class, along with her alleged newfound energy and updated skill set from the switch in coaches, will put her over the top and get her a win here. Ostovich has shown that she’ll essentially surrender once mounted, so if Mazany can get the fight to that position she seems setup for an early victory.
DFS Implications:
Ostovich’s R1 submission win against Gevorgyan was good for 100 DraftKings points and will likely drive up her ownership beyond her chances of actually scoring well in this fight.
Mazany’s DraftKings scoresheet looks pretty wretched with scores of 1, 7 , 29, 77 and 0 in her five UFC fights. As the eighth most expensive fighter on the slate, we think her ownership will end up near the bottom of the heap, while she actually presents some interesting upside when you look at the full picture.
While both of these fighters present some matchup-based theoretical upside, we think getting the favorite at lower ownership is the smart play. She’ll need an early finish to pay off, which we’ve yet to see from her on the UFC level, but we think the reward is worth the risk—at least to the extent that you have more than the field of her. It makes sense to play both sides though, as it’s entirely possible that Ostovich either lands a bunch of takedowns, gets a submission, or both.
Martin Day
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)After losing a 2017 decision on DWCS, Day was relegated back to the regional scene. However, after bouncing back with three straight wins, including a R1 Guillotine Choke and a R2 KO, the UFC decided to give him a shot.
He lost his 2018 debut in a split decision against Pingyuan Liu—who went on to lose his next two fights—but Day notably landed 100 significant strikes in the fight to go alone with a takedown, while defending all four of his opponents’ attempts. However, following the November 2018 loss in his debut, we didn’t see Day again in the octagon until July 2020.
After over a year and a half layoff, Day was knocked out in R3 of his most recent fight against Davey Grant. His extended layoff was largely due to three canceled fights over the course of a year—two due to Day injuries and one because of COVID.
Now winless in two UFC fights, three of his last six and five of his 12 pro fights have ended in decisions. He seems to be more comfortable fighting at a distance where he can throw kicks while more easily avoiding his opponent’s strikes.
UPDATE: Day was slow to weigh in and looked pretty drained.
Anderson Dos Santos
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Joining the UFC later in his MMA career, the now 35-year-old Dos Santos made his 2018 debut in a decision loss to Nad Narimani. He went on to lose another decision in his second UFC fight against Andre Ewell in 2019 and has now been to three straight decisions after seeing 21 of his first 25 fights end early.
Coming off a 17 month layoff, it’s a little hard to know what to expect out of Dos Santos. He had been scheduled to fight Jack Shore back on July 15th before he tested positive for COVID, so obviously the pandemic played a role in his time away.
Generally pushing forward with his lands a little low, Dos Santos’ fighting style seems to leave him vulnerable to getting punched in the face more than is necessary. Both of his career submission losses were by Guillotine Choke, as were both of Day’s career submission wins.
Dos Santos notably beat Ricky Simon back in 2016 with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke, prior to joining the UFC. While 16 of his 20 career wins have come early, 11 of those were by submission and Day has never been submitted. Day seems more vulnerable to being knocked out and Dos Santos has just one KO win in his last 17 fights.
Fight Prediction:
Day will have a 5” height advantage and 3” reach advantage in this fight. Dos Santos struggled to find his range against the 5’8” Ewell who had a 75” reach in his last fight. While Day is 2” taller than Ewell, his reach is actually 2” shorter. Potentially fighting for their UFC lives, both of these two are on thin ice at 0-2 in the UFC. We don’t love either guy here and it feels close to a coinflip, but we kind of like the underdog Dos Santo’s chances.
DFS Implications:
We think it’s unlikely that Day ends this fight early, which is likely what he would need to score well in DFS and hit value at his inflated price. We’ve already seen the line move in Dos Santos’ favor, reconfirming that Day is overpriced on both DFS sites. He’ll definitely be low owned if you’re looking for contrarian options, but he seems like a bad play to us.
We weren’t overly impressed by Dos Santos either, but weird things happen and Day is coming off a R3 KO loss and is 0-2 in the UFC. Dos Santos appears to be a little underpriced based on the line move and has shown he’s capable of finishing opponents—just not so much recently. We’re looking to sprinkle in Dos Santos and fade Day in this one.
Kai Kamaka
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a high-volume decision win in his short notice August UFC debut, Kamaka is stepping into another fight with little time to prepare after Sean Woodson recently dropped out. Kamaka was announced as the replacement just eight days in advance of this fight.
In his August debut, Kamaka and Kelley both landed exactly 114 significant strikes, while Kamaka tacked on five takedowns on five attempts. He also successfully defended Kelley’s only takedown attempt. Kamaka looked perfectly content with keeping the fight in a phone booth, encouraging constant action with flurries of punches. Kamaka was giving up 2” of height to Kelley and will now notably be giving up 5” to Pearce.
Kamaka has won six fights in a row and his last seven have all ended in decisions. The only time he’s ever finished an opponent early was in his second pro fight in 2014, when he landed a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission against a 1-7 (now 1-9) training dummy. He’s only been finished early once himself, which came in a 2015 R1 KO against another suspect fighter. Kamaka didn’t fight for almost two years following that loss, before coming back for his only other pro loss in a 2017 decision. Since the pair of losses, he’s won six straight decisions.
While Kamaka is unlikely to finish fights early, in the limited tape we’ve seen on him he’s shown solid volume in his striking, the ability to score on takedowns, and the durability to absorb blows from his opponents. The book is still open on him but he seems like a guy that pushes the pace and encourages high-volume brawls..
Jonathan Pearce
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Landing his shot in the UFC with an ultra high-paced R3 KO on DWCS in 2019, Pearce literally fell on his face in his UFC debut. After getting KO’d in 93 seconds by a washed up Joe Lauzon—who came in on a three fight skid and an 18 month layoff—Pearce’s unreal previous performance now carries some level of uncertainty. We can try to justify the recent performance by saying Pearce just got caught by a lucky punch, or that he got stuck in a really awkward position on the ground that didn’t allow him to recover, or that Lauzon was fighting what may have been his final UFC fight to finish a long career at his hometown Boston Garden. And while that may all be true, Pearce showed his ass in that one.
Pearce’s aggressive fighting style and questionable striking defense definitely seem to leave him open to getting hit. And for DFS, that can be a good thing. Pearce seamingly invites opponents to strike with him as he appears to guard his neck more than his face.
It’s hard to take anything away from the stats in his recent mauling, but in his previous fight on DWCS he landed 142 significant strikes while absorbing 80, went 4 of 8 on takedowns, defended all three takedowns against him, and then finished it with a R3 KO. Without even factoring in advances and reversals that would have been good for 136 DraftKings points and 142 points on FanDuel. Obviously we should take that with a grain of salt as it wasn’t against a UFC fighter, but it’s still pretty damn impressive.
Following the loss in his debut, Pearce hasn't fought in 13 months and is now moving down a weight class. After starting his career at 145 lb, he moved up to 155 lb in 2017 following three straight losses (two at 145 lb and one at 135 lb), and this will be his first fight back down at 145 lb since then. He was dealing with all sorts of personal issues back then, from being attacked outside of a gym and beaten to the brink of death to having his fiance leave him so it’s hard to pinpoint a single reason for the losses, but obviously his first fight back at a weight class he previously struggled in is of some concern.
His last six and 11 of his 13 pro fights have ended early—including 8 of his 9 wins and 3 of his 4 losses. Prior to losing in his debut, he had won five fights in a row with four KO’s and one submission. Three of those finishes came in R2 and the other two were in R3. Despite all the early finishes, he only has one R1 win on his record. However, all three of his early losses came in the first round with two by submission and one by KO.
Fight Prediction:
This should be one of the best fights on the slate and could easily be the fight of the night. Kamaka’s history of taking fights to decisions suggests he may be the perfect opponent for a high-volume brawl. Both of these fighters have shown they like to stand and trade. Pearce will have a 5” height advantage and a 2” reach advantage over Kamaka in this fight. While the line opened the week at -400, we think it’s much closer than that. Apparently the betting market agrees as it was quickly bet down. We like betting Pearce given his odds and think this likely ends in a close decision.
DFS Implications:
If Pearce’s DWCS score showed up on the DraftKings stat sheet his ownership would rise exponentially. Instead, only his pathetic four point performance in his UFC debuting face flop show up and we get to reap the rewards. While Pearce remains a big dog in this fight, he’ll undeniably be lower owned than he should be and he’s already seen a decent line move in his favor. He stands out as being massively mispriced on both DFS sites and you’ll definitely want to be over the field on him.
Stacking fights almost never makes sense in DFS GPP’s but if there were ever a time to do it this could be it. Still, we don’t recommend it by any means, as the only way it works out is if both Kamaka and all but one of the other favorites on the slate win and Pearce is the highest scoring losing dog. Not a very likely scenario, but it does occasionally happen—for example on the last slate Bill Algeo was on.
Ashlee Evans-Smith
8th UFC Fight (3-4)After starting her career off at 145 lb, Evans-Smith dropped down to 135 lb when she joined the UFC. However, after going 2-3 at Bantamweight she decided to drop down further in 2018 to Flyweight (125 lb). She went 1-1 at Flyweight in her last two fights, but is now moving back up to 135 lb to go kick the Bantamweight tires some more.
She’s now lost three of her last four fights and hasn't fought since February 2019. Four of her seven UFC fights have ended in decisions, including three of her last four. She’s been submitted twice in R1, with a 2017 R1 Armbar and a 2014 R1 Bulldog Choke, while her only early win in the UFC was a 2016 R3 KO against Veronica Macedo, who’s now 1-4 in the UFC.
While three of her six pro wins came by KO, all three were in the third round and two of those were in her first three pro fights. It doesn’t seem like she has much KO power on tape and she’s never submitted anybody.
She was apparently a four time all American wrestler, but she’s not a very impressive fighter. She does have DraftKings scores of 93 and 101 points in 2 of her 3 UFC wins (63 in the other), but we still don’t love her upside here. While she shoots for a decent amount of takedowns, she has just a 25% takedown accuracy. This makes Dumont a little more interesting on FanDuel. Evans-Smith throws just enough volume to keep us interested but not enough to get us excited.
Norma Dumont
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Full of confidence coming into her UFC despite having fought professionally just four times, Dumont spent the majority of her debut pushing Megan Anderson up against the cage looking for a takedown. The 6’0” Anderson proved tough to get down, tougher to keep down, and even tougher to deal with once she was back upright. Anderson put Dumont down with a stiff right hand with no follow up strikes needed.
Despite the loss, in many ways Dumont actually looked better than Evans-Smith on tape. However, we see lots of ways for this fight to fail if it ends up with the two ladies pushed up against the cage.
Dumont does have two R1 submission wins on her record, both by Rear-Naked Choke, but this is only her 6th pro fight. Three of her first five notaly ended in R1.
UPDATE: Dumont missed weight badly, coming in at 139.5 lb. She also had terrible body language as she slumped off the stage. This is a big red flag for us.
Fight Prediction:
We actually kind of like Dumont to pull off the upset here. While we haven’t seen nearly enough of her to feel overly confident about the pick, it’s more of a knock on Evans-Smith. Coming off an extended layoff, having lost three of her last four and switching weight classes yet again, Evans-Smith seems like she’s grasping for something that isn’t there in her career. We thought Dumont looked more explosive and determined on the limited tape we watched and think she has the ability to end this fight early. The most likely outcome is still for it to end in a decision and we’ve yet to see Dumont’s ground game on the UFC level, but things could get interesting if she gets the fight to the mat.
UPDATE: Following the bad weight miss we’re far less bullish on Dumont. It’s hard to know what to expect here, but we generally do well betting against people who miss weight or go through tough cuts.
DFS Implications:
Evans-Smith is the cheapest favorite on both DFS sites, but is especially cheap on FanDuel at only $14—likely because they released their pricing a little earlier than DraftKings. She’s gone from -105, a week before the fight, to -140 as of Friday, but the oddsmakers still expect this one to go the distance.
While Evans-Smith’s mispricing on FanDuel presents some clear value, we think Dumont is the better overall play on both sites. The oddsmakers thought highly enough of her to start her as the slight favorite when the lines opened, yet she’s priced under 8k on DraftKings. On FanDuel, we would expect the majority of people to take the savings on Evans-Smith, while scoffing at paying $2 more for an unproven underdog. This should keep Dumont’s FanDuel ownership way down, while she offers both finishing upside and the ability to score off takedowns defended. She makes for a great leverage play over there with a sneaky upside.
Spike Carlyle
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from just the second loss in his pro career, Carlyle has never been finished early in his 11 pro fights. On the other side of things, eight of his nine wins have come early with five KO’s and three submissions. After winning his February 2020 UFC debut with a flurry of punches in an 85 second R1 KO, Carlyle came into his most recent fight on a five fight winning streak with R1 KO’s in his last three.
Going against a tough opponent in Billy Quarantillo, Carlyle attempted to blitz and finish him in R1, but was unable to get it done. In a bizarre move at the end of the first round, Carlyle had Quarantillo on his back and was raining down punches from above, but then with about five seconds remaining in the round Carlyle stood up, turned around and casually walked away. The savvy fighter that he is, Quarantillo immediately popped up and clocked Caryle in the side of the head. Carlyle looked to rapidly run out of steam after that first round, and his gas tank is definitely a concern. He looked exhausted for the second half of the fight and it seems fair to call him a R1 or bust fighter. He ended up losing the fight in a decision.
Carlyle fought at 170 lb as an amateur and then dropped to 155 lb when he went pro. He bounced back and forth between 155 lb and 145 lb for a few years until he joined the UFC in 2020 in the 145 lb weight class. His last fight was actually at 150 lb catchweight and getting down to 145 lb seems to be a tough weight cut for him.
Bill Algeo
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After making his UFC debut on short notice and just 16 days after fighting previously, Algeo looked good in the first two rounds against veteran Ricardo Lamas and seemed like he was going to win the fight before Lamas put up a dominating 10-8 third round to steal the decision.
A BJJ black belt, Algeo showed solid scrambling ability on the ground at times in that match. Five of his six submission wins are by Rear-Naked Choke and one was by Arm-Triangle Choke.
Algeo’s last three fights have now all ended in decisions with him losing two of them. However, nine of his 13 pro wins have come early with three KO’s and six submissions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice—a 2012 R1 Armbar in his second pro fight and a 2014 R2 Rear-Naked Choke against stud Shane Burgos. Since the 2014 submission loss to Burgos, Algero has gone 7-3 with three early wins and seven decisions (4-3). His early finishes all came in R2, with two KO’s and one Rear-Naked Choke. One of the three decision losses over those 10 fights came against current UFC fighter Jared Gordon, another was on DWCS in 2019, and the third was in his recent UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Algeo will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage in this right. We see this fight going one of two ways—either Carlyle gets the R1 finish or Algeo takes over in R2 and either finishes the fight late or more likely grinds out a decision. Neither of these two fighters have ever been knocked out, so if Algeo can survive the initial blitz of Carlyle, we like him to wear Carlyle down and win in a decision.
DFS Implications:
If Carlyle gets the R1 finish then you’ll most likely need him in your DFS lineups. However, if this fight makes it out of the first round it will likely be hard for him to put up a useful score. We think the field will play him beyond his chances of finishing the fight in the first round, so it naturally makes sense to be under the field on him.
On the other side of this one, at Algeo’s near bottom price he has many more paths to success. We haven’t seen many dogs win in recent weeks, so simply picking one that does goes a long way. And getting one that puts up even a half decent score will likely be enough for winning lineups. Carlyle likes to push the pace, as does Algeo, so this could easily be a high scoring fight as long as they dont get stuck up against the cage for extended periods of time. Algeo looks like a good leverage play against a highly owned Carlyle.
Josh Parisian
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut, Parisian originally went on DWCS back in 2018 and landed a Spinning Backfist R1 KO. However, it was only enough to get him a spot on The Ultimate Fighter and not enough to earn a UFC contract. After suffering a loss on TUF, he went back to the regional scene for a couple years before getting another crack at DWCS this past August. In that recent fight, he landed another R1 KO and this time did get a UFC contract.
Parisian notably had a 50 lb weight advantage in that last fight, and the size difference was quite noticeable. Now going against a true Heavyweight in Porter, it will be interesting to see how he looks against someone his own weight. Interestingly, Parisian also had a 46 lb weight advantage in his second most recent fight.
His last 10 fights have all ended early, and only two of his 16 pro fights made it to the judges. He went 1-1 in those two decisions. Eight of his last nine fights ended in R1, with him winning seven of those. He throws more kicks and spinning strikes than your typical Heavyweight and claims to have the speed of a Middleweight (don’t they all).
Parker Porter
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Three months removed from getting KO’d in R1 of his UFC debut by Chris Daukaus, Porter’s last 13 fights have all ended early. That streak randomly started with a 36 second R1 KO loss to Jon Jones back in 2008, in what was Jones’ 5th pro fight and Porter’s 3rd. That was the only time Parker ever fought at Light Heavyweight and we have no clue how he made weight.
Only one of Parker’s 14 pro fights made it to the judges and that came in just his second pro fight back in 2008. Not one to stick around when he’s outmatched, five of his six losses have come in R1. In fairness, one of those came from a DQ due to punches to the back of the head. He hasn’t had a R1 win since 2011 and only has three total to his name.
Despite his 13 year pro career, he’s only fought 15 pro fights. After going pro in 2007, he took off 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017. Since returning from a two and a half year layoff in January 2018, he’s fought five times, going 3-2 with two R3 KO’s and a R2 Kimura Submission.
Fight Prediction:
Parisian doesn’t stand out as exceptional on tape, but neither does Porter. Parisian will have both a 4” height and reach advantage. In 31 combined pro fights, these two Heavyweights have seen a total of three decisions. Parker’s history of losing early and winning late make Parisian the play that stands out on paper, but it’s hard to feel great about either of these guys. We think that Parisian probably wins this one in the first round, but it’s not the most confident prediction as both of these two are sloppy Heavyweights and nothing would really surprise us.
DFS Implications:
Parisian feels overpriced on both sites for an unexceptional fighter making his UFC debut, but his string of R1 wins paired with Porter’s history of R1 losses make fading him a tough move to stomach. Porter is certainly capable of finishing Parisian so it makes sense to have at least some exposure to both sides. It seems like you’ll likely need a piece of this in DFS, but Heavyweight fights are often prone to busting if they escape the first round.
Miguel Baeza
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Originally scheduled to fight on September 19th before he got pulled when he wasn’t medically cleared, Baeza comes in having never lost a fight, and with 7 of his 9 wins coming early—all by KO. He was able to finish four of his opponents in R1 and three in R2. Although three of those R1 KO’s came in his first three fights against opponents with records of 0-2, 0-0 and 3-2. He won each of his two UFC fights by R2 KO.
In his UFC debut he was matched up with Hector Aldana, who came into the fight 4-2 as a pro but 0-2 in the UFC. Baeza attacked Aldana’s leg until he could no longer stand half way into R2. In Baeza’s second UFC fight he went against longtime UFC veteran, 39 year-old Matt Brown, who entered the match 22-16 as a pro but having lost 3 of his last 5 and 5 of his last 8 fights. Baeza again attacked the calf but Brown countered with some solid blows that wobbled Baeza, who was able to recover and do the same to Brown. After both guys almost finished the other in R1, Baeza KO’d Brown 18 seconds into R2.
"Do not blink on this one, I do not expect it to go to decision!"
-Dana White on Baeza vs. Sato
Takashi Sato
4th UFC Fight (3-1)Sato seems to have a pretty fraudulent UFC resume if you asked us. He won his UFC debut over the corpse of Ben Saunders, before losing to Belal Muhammad by R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. Then most recently, Sato knocked out a debuting Jason Witt in 48 seconds, but Witt took the fight on just a day’s notice.
Sato’s only career KO loss came in R1 of a 2015 match. He’s also been submitted twice by Rear-Naked Choke in R4 of a 2018 match and R3 in his 2019 fight against Muhammad.
Sato had been scheduled to fight Daniel Rodriguez on August 22nd, but wasn't medically cleared and was forced to pull out the day before. His last nine fights have all ended early and his last seven wins have all come by KO with five of them in R1. Only 3 of his 19 pro fights have made it to a decision. This fight seems destined to end early.
Fight Prediction:
Baeza will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage in this fight. We think Sato has benefited from a lower level of competition and comes into this fight overvalued. We like Baeza to land another KO in the first two rounds. The Baeza “wins by KO” and both the R1 & R2 KO lines are all very much in play.
DFS Implications:
Obviously if Baeza gets the early KO that we’re expecting then he’s squarely in play for DFS lineups. Things get a little murkier if the fight makes it to a third round, but we are expecting a decently high volume fight so his floor seems relatively solid.
As a cheap dog, if Sato wins this fight he’ll almost certainly be in winning lineups. However, we think he’ll likely be pretty heavily owned so it will be hard to gain much leverage here.
This is one of those fights that you’ll most likely need a piece of in most of your lineups. Both guys will be heavily owned, but for good reason. We like going over the field on Baeza and under on Sato.
Anthony Smith
14th UFC Fight (8-5)UPDATE: This fight was switched from three to five rounds during weigh-ins after Blaydes tested positive for COVID.
2020 has not been Anthony Smith’s year. It started with him fighting off a home invader in the middle of the night. Despite being a professional fighter, Smith described the encounter with the intruder as, “He's a regular Joe and I had a hard time dealing with him. And he took everything that I gave him–every punch, every knee, every elbow. He took every single one of them and kept fighting me.”
Following what we’re ruling as a draw with the home invader, Smith went on to get his teeth knocked out in a soul crushing defeat against a bigger, stronger, older Glover Teixeira. The grueling beating did not appear to be something that one could easily shake off and most likely shaved a few years off Smith’s life if we’re being honest.
Nevertheless, Smith opted to get back on the horse just three months later against Rakic, and was clearly outmatched again. What started with a barrage of violent leg kicks, quickly turned into a smothering ground performance. Despite being the main event, this fight was only three rounds—thankfully for Smith’s sake. Rakic cruised to a decision, but likely could have gotten the finish if he had been more determined to do so.
Smith has now lost three of his last four fights and was openly contemplating his future in both fighting and the 205 lb division following the loss. Seemingly a man stuck between two weight classes, he appears too small for the Light Heavyweight division and too slow for the Middleweights.
Ignoring his recent struggles—which is really, really hard to do—Smith’s last seven wins all came early. He submitted an aging Alexander Gustafsson (who retired afterwards) in R4 of their 2019 main event and submitted Volkan Oezdemir in R3 of their 2018 headliner. Prior to the pair of submission wins, his five wins before that all came by KO, including two in R1.
All four of his recent losses have come against big names in Thiago Santos, Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. It’s possible that the step down in opponent skill level to Devin Clark will flip the switch for Anthony Smith, but it requires a leap of faith to continue betting on this broken man.
Devin Clark
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Coming in on a two fight winning streak, all six of Clark’s UFC wins have ended in decisions, while all four of his UFC losses have come early (R2 submission, R1 KO, R2 submission, R1 KO).
He does have four early finishes in 12 career wins, but two of his three career KO's came in his first two pro fights against a couple of stat padders. His third “KO” came in his 6th pro fight by way of "Hand Injury". His only submission win came in his third pro fight against another nobody.
Clark seems adamant about fighting his style of fight, which is to grind out decisions by controlling opponents up against the cage using his tree trunk upper legs. This boring style of fighting offers very little from both a viewing and DFS perspective.
When his game plan fails, it normally does so in dramatic fashion. He was knocked out in R1 of his 2016 UFC debut, and then choked out three fights later by Jan Blachowicz in R2 of their 2017 match. At that point he began alternating decision wins with his early losses, and following a win over Mike Rodriguez, he got knocked out in R1 by Aleksandar Rakic with a distinguished back fist (you’re supposed to duel after that right?). He bounced back with another decision win before getting choked out in R2 of his next fight against Ryan Spann. Since then he rattled off a pair of decision wins, including being the first to survive the Alonzo Menifield experience.
UPDATE: Smith was the last one to weigh in by a wide margin and it seems possible he had a tough weight cut. He could also be heard saying he woke up heavy during face offs.
Fight Prediction:
After seeing Smith get completely controlled on the ground in his last two fights, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Clark grind out another decision here. Keep in mind Smith is a BJJ black belt, so there’s always a chance he can pull off a submission if Clark slips up. We see those as being the two most likely outcomes, but it’s tough to predict which is more likely. Betting on Clark feels like taking the under in a football game, while picking Smith feels like trying to guess who scores the first touchdown—it normally doesn’t work out. No one likes betting an under, so we’ll keep bashing our heads against the wall and say Smith finally wins another fight, but we don’t feel good about the pick one bit.
DFS Implications:
Neither of these two fighters have shown a ton of upside and have broken 100 DraftKings points just three times in their last 20 combined fights. And keep in mind, five of Smith’s last six fights have been five round fights.
Clark’s upside has been pretty low, and he’s generally reliant on racking up takedowns and advances to score well. Since joining the UFC, Clark hasn't finished anyone and was only able to squeak out a 102 point DraftKings score due to a four takedown, six advance performance against a terrible Jake Collier. He hasn’t topped 78 DraftKings points in his last five fights.
Smith is priced at justonly $16 on FanDuel, and they seem to be begging people to click his name. He definitely makes for a more interesting play over there with the ability to score off takedowns defended and submission attempts—in addition to being relatively cheaper. For him to pay off on DraftKings he would likely need a R1 finish.
UPDATE: This is a unique situation we find ourselves in with a three round fight being switched to five rounds the day before the event. How each guy’s cardio will hold up is likely not only a mystery to us, but also potentially to them. The additional rounds obviously add value to each fighter, but we could certainly see this being a lower scoring main event. However, while DraftKings doesn’t change the combined pricing of fighters regardless of whether it’s a main event, FanDuel does. Since pricing was obviously already released, we’re now seeing the cheapest FanDuel main event fighter pricing, possibly ever. So while you can still fade this fight on DraftKings if you so choose, it almost becomes a must play on FanDuel. We do think Clark is a better play on DraftKings and Smith is a better play on FanDuel.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma