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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #12
Alejandro Perez
12th UFC Fight (7-3-1)Coming off a violent R1 KO loss against Song Yadong, Perez now hasn’t fought in 27 months. He had been scheduled to face Thomas Almeida in October 2020, but Perez tested positive for COVID and was forced to withdraw. Five of his last seven fights have gone the distance with the one other early stoppage prior to his most recent loss coming in a 2018 R2 KO win. It’s now been over three years since Perez last won a fight going back to a July 2018 decision win over Eddie Wineland.
Despite sporting the nickname “Turbo” Perez averages just 3.52 SSL/min and absorbs only 2.94 SS/min. He’s never landed more than 61 significant strikes in any of his 11 UFC fights, despite six of those matches going the distance. He also only averages 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, with just four takedowns landed in his 11 UFC fights and just one in his last five. Four of his 11 UFC fights have ended in KOs (3-1) and one finished in a submission (0-1). Looking at his entire pro career, Perez is 21-8-1 with nine KOs, five submission wins and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times and has lost three decisions.
Overall, Perez looks like a patient striker who doesn’t initiate much grappling. Considering he hasn’t fought in over two years, it’s hard to know what exactly we can expect from him so there are a wide range of potential outcomes.
Johnny Eduardo
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Now 41 years old and coming off a 40 month layoff, we haven’t seen Eduardo step inside the Octagon since June 2018 when he was submitted by Nathaniel Wood, who was making his UFC debut. In Eduardo’s second most recent fight (a year prior to the loss to Woods) he was knocked out in the first round. Going back one year/fight furter, he landed a knockout of his own, this time in the second round. And one year/fight before that he was submitted by Aljamain Sterling in the second round via Guillotine Choke. He did knock out Eddie Wineland a year before that loss, so you can see that Eduardo generally has a finish or get finished mentality and doesn’t fight very frequently.
Eduardo only has six fights in the last decade, with those fights occuring in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. His last five fights all ended in the first two rounds and he lost three of the last four. Eduardo had been scheduled to fight back in March 2021, but was forced to withdraw due to visa issues.
Despite being a BJJ black belt, Eduardo has never landed a takedown in the UFC and has been submitted in two of his last three losses. Also, his last submission win was all the way back in 2011. With a 28-12 pro record, Eduardo has 10 wins by KO, 11 by submission and seven decision victories. Ten of his 12 career losses have also come early, but just one of those has ended in a knockout, while nine have come by submission. However, his first two UFC fights both ended in low-volume decisions (1-1).
Fight Prediction:
Eduardo will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
With both of these two coming off a pair of losses followed by multi-year layoffs, this is the ultimate high variance spot. On top of that, Eduardo is 41-years-old and turned pro all the way back in 1996! So this is his 25th year of professional fighting and this will be his 41st pro fight. He looks far less durable than Perez, but he does have decent hands. While we weren’t impressed with Perez’s finishing ability, Eduardo may force the action to the point that someone will have to go. Perez generally fights pretty methodically, while Eduardo is far more reckless and will put himself in bad situations that often result in quick stoppages. So while we don’t have much confidence in either of these guys, we have to take Perez here by default. Generally we would pick him to fight to decisions, but Eduardo seems allergic to the third round so there’s a good chance this once ends in the first two. While Perez doesn’t look like much of a grappler, he does have five submissions on his record and Eduardo has been submitted in 9 of his 12 pro losses, so there’s definitely a chance we see another submission here.
The safest bets here are “FDGTD”, which has now been bet up to -164, and “Fight Doesn’t Start R3” at +102. We’re also taking a few value long shots on “Perez Wins in R1” at +370, “Perez Wins in R2” at +500, “Perez Wins Wins by Submission” at +950 and “Perez Wins by R2 Submission” at +2800.
DFS Implications:
Nothing really stands out with Perez’s past DFS scoring as he’s generally struggled to score well unless he lands a first round finish due to his lack of activity, but this sets up as a high-variance spot against a 41-year-old in Eduardo who hasn’t fought in 3+ years, has lost three of his last four fights and hasn’t been past the second round in his last five fights going back to 2012. This is purely a speculative opponent-based DFS play as Perez also hasn’t fought in over two years himself, has lost his last two fights and was knocked out cold the last time we saw him. This fight could go a lot of ways, but an early finish for Perez appears to be the most likely outcome. Perez does not look like a guy that can score well in a decision or potentially even with a late finish, as he averages just 3.52 SSL/min and only 0.5 takedowns/15 min. The odds imply Perez has a 67% chance to win, a 39% chance to get a finish and a 19% chance it comes in R1.
Eduardo is completely dependent on landing finishes, just like Perez, but averages even lower striking and takedown numbers with just 2.89 SSL/min and he’s never landed a takedown in seven UFC fights despite being a BJJ black belt. With both of these fighters taking so much time off, it’s hard to know how they’ll look in their return, so Eduardo is simply a shot in the dark hoping that Perez looks terrible and Eduardo still has some juice left in his hands. Eduardo’s last two wins have both come early, so he’s at least shown the ability to finish opponents, but he’s also been finished himself in three of his last four fights and is now 41 years old and hasn’t fought since 2018. You’ll want to have some small level of exposure so your night isn’t ruined if he wins, but this is just a dart throw based on the fact that Eduardo’s last five fights have all ended in the first two rounds (2-3) and Perez is coming off a R1 KO loss and a long layoff. The odds imply Eduardo has a 33% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #11
Stephanie Egger
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a grappling-heavy decision loss in her short notice UFC debut against a tough Tracy Cortez, Egger now gets a much easier opponent for her second UFC fight as she takes on Shanna Young. In her low-volume fight against Cortez, Egger trailed in significant strikes just 20-10 and in total strikes 66-27, while Cortez went 3 for 5 on takedowns with nearly 10 minutes of control time as Egger went just 1 for 6 on her attempts with two minutes of control time. Egger did land a solid upkick off her back at one point, but didn’t have many other moments in the fight as Cortez was able to control her for the majority of the slow paced fight. Cortez was able to defend all of Egger’s Judo throws, but a weaker grappler likely would have struggled there.
Just prior to joining the UFC, Egger won three straight fights, including two in R1. Impressively four of her five career wins have come in the first round, with her one other win ending in a 2019 decision. Both of her pro losses have also ended in decisions and she still only has seven fights on her record (5-2). As a black belt in Judo, Egger is most comfortable getting opponents down and beating them up on the mat opposed to standing and trading on the feet. Egger has very little experience fighting in a cage as she had been accustomed to competing in a ring prior to joining the UFC, so her UFC debut was likely a learning experience for her on how to work off the cage. We expect her to fare much better in this next match against a low-level opponent.
Shanna Young
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a decision loss to Macy Chiasson in her February 2020 UFC debut, Young now hasn’t fought in 19 months and has lost two of her last three fights. She originally tried to make it into the UFC through DWCS, but was submitted in the second round by a terrible Sarah Alpar, which probably tells you everything you need to know about Young. Alpar narrowly led in significant strikes 35-30 and in total strikes 55-41, while landing two of her three takedown attempts and defending Young’s only attempt.
Young was then relegated back to Invicta, where she bounced back with a decision win. The UFC must have been desperate for a body at that point after Nicco Montano dropped out of a fight against Macy Chiasson, as Young got her shot as a replacement fighter in that match. Chiasson was able to dominate Young as she outlanded her 86-40 in significant strikes and 154-50 in total strikes, while landing 3 of her 8 takedown attempts with over eight and a half minutes of control time. The only time Young was ever able to do any sort of damage was with her left karate style head kick that she landed a couple of times early in the fight.
Young is just 3-3 in her last six fights and 7-3 as a pro. She has one win by KO, three by submission and three decisions. The only time she’s ever been finished came in the R2 submission against Alpar on DWCS, while her other two career losses both ended in decisions. She has competed at both 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, but may be better suited for the 125 lb division, as all of her career losses have occurred at 135 lb where this next fight will be. Young recently had a baby, which obviously has an impact on your ability to train, which is just one more potential area of concern with her.
Overall, Young is an uninspiring fighter who doesn’t appear to belong in the UFC. Her karate background is evident in the way she throws kicks, which is really all she offers on offense. She’s the type of fighter you want to bet against.
Fight Prediction:
Young is listed as having a 1” height advantage, but we thought Egger looked taller at face-offs. Egger will also have a 3” reach advantage.
We’ve seen Young really struggle on the mat in both her UFC debut and on DWCS, so this looks like a really tough matchup for her against a Judo black belt in Egger. We expect Egger to look to get Young down early and beat her up on the ground. Egger has shown the ability to finish fights with ground and pound or Rear-Naked Chokes, so it will likely just come down to what’s available. We really like Egger’s chances to get an early finish here.
The safest bet here is Egger’s moneyline at -120. However, our favorite bet is her R1 win line at +800 and we also like her ITD line at +330.
DFS Implications:
While Egger did nothing in her UFC debut to get anyone excited about her, four of her five career wins have come in the first round and now she gets a dream matchup against a below average talent in Shanna Young. Egger’s a Judo black belt and should be able to dominate this fight on the ground with a great chance for an early finish. As the cheapest favorite on both sites, it will be interesting to see how much of the field catches onto this, but there’s a chance Egger flies mostly under the radar after only scoring 21 DraftKings points in her UFC debut. We love this spot for Egger on both sites and in all contest types. The odds imply she has a 54% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.
Young has very little going for her here outside of the fact that she should be incredibly low owned in tournaments. She’s coming off a lopsided decision loss in her UFC debut and two fights prior to that was submitted on DWCS by a terrible Sarah Alpar. This looks like a really tough spot for Young to succeed, but she’ll need to remain on her feet if she wants to have any chance. We don’t have any interest in playing Young in DFS, but the odds do imply she has a 46% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1. Those all seem ridiculously too high if you ask us.
Fight #10
Douglas Silva de Andrade
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Coming off a hardfought decision loss to a really tough Lerone Murphy, Silva de Andrade has now alternated wins and losses over his last six fights as he’s faced a series of tough opponents in Rob Font, Marlon Vera, Petr Yan, Renan Barao and Lerone Murphy.
Silva de Andrade was fighting at 145 lb before joining the UFC, where he stayed for his UFC debut, but he then dropped down to 135 lb after losing his debut to Zubaira Tukhugov. He won his first two fights at 135 lb, but lost his third to Rob Font, who submitted Silva de Andrade in R2 with a Guillotine Choke. That was the first time Silva de Andrade had ever been finished early. He bounced back with a decision win over Marlon Vera before getting matched up with current Bantamweight champ Petr Yan.
Yan handed him his first KO loss due to a corner stoppage after the second round. Following the loss, Silva de Andrade decided to move back up to 145 lb where he immediately beat a washed up Renan Barao in a decision before most recently losing a decision against a much tougher talent in Lerone Murphy. Silva de Andrade has now decided to move back down to 135 lb where he has previously gone 3-2 in the UFC with both losses ending in the second round and all three of those wins making it to the third round with two ending in decisions.
Andrade joined the UFC in 2014 with an eye-popping 22-0 pro record. Of those 22 wins, 18 were by KO and one was by submission with just three requiring the judges. Since then, he’s gone 4-4 with three of his four wins coming in decisions and the fourth in a R3 KO. Two of his UFC losses have ended in decisions, while the other two ended in R2 with a TKO corner stoppage and a Guillotine Choke. After going through a series of tough opponents, Silva de Andrade will now get an easier matchup.
Gaetano Pirrello
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a smothering R2 submission loss against Ricky Simon, Pirrello continued to show his glaring grappling weakness as Simon took him down 7 times on 10 attempts with seven minutes of control time in a fight that only lasted nine minutes. Simon finished ahead in significant strikes 17-6 and in total strikes 50-10.
Prior to making his short notice UFC debut in January 2021, Pirrello hadn’t fought since October 2019. His last five fights have all ended in the first two rounds (3-2), including three in the first round and two in the second.
Pirrello is now 15-6-1 as a pro, having gone to just three decisions. Of his 15 wins, 14 have come early, with 11 KOs and three submissions. Five of his six losses have also come early, including one KO and four submissions. Impressively, 13 of his 22 fights have ended in R1 (11-2). It should be noted that he’s faced a lot of questionable competition prior to joining the UFC and he got absolutely manhandled once he made the step up to the next level.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” with a 68” reach, but Pirrello is seven years younger than the 36-year-old Silva de Andrade.
Silva de Andrade generally hasn’t been a huge takedown guy, as he only has five takedowns in eight UFC fights and only one in his last three matches. However, it would be foolish not to attack Pirrello on the mat where he looks the most vulnerable. With that said, Silva de Andrade has 19 career wins by KO and just one by submission, so it’s entirely possible he decides to engage in a striking battle on the feet. While he hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016 and has just one finish since 2013, this looks like a good spot for him to get an early win. Regardless of how the fight ends though, we like Silva de Andrade to win this one.
Pirrello’s last three losses have all come in R2, with two ending in submissions and one with a KO. So if you want to take a stab at some long shots, “Silva de Andrade Wins in R2” at +850 and “Silva de Andrade Wins by R2 Submission” at +5000 are interesting. You can also consider his overall submission line at +1400 or his ITD line at +150, which is clearly the safest bet.
DFS Implications:
Silva de Andrade has never scored well in DFS, with DraftKings totals of 66, 75, 89 and 64 points in his four UFC wins. And the 89 point performance came against an old Enrique Briones who has lost his last four fights. His steep price tag and terrible scoring history should keep his ownership pretty low, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to finally hit a ceiling performance as he goes against a major step down in competition. It is somewhat concerning that Silva de Andrade is now 36 years old and hasn’t finished an opponent in nearly five years, so this is definitely a high-risk spot, but it makes a lot of sense to be over the field on Silva de Andrade in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 35% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Pirrello looked dreadful in his UFC debut as he was dominated in the grappling department by Ricky Simon. Outside of beating up trash cans on the European scene, Pirrello has given us no indication that he can compete at the UFC level. He’s a one-dimensional striker with terrible grappling who will be reliant on keeping the fight standing to win. Considering we haven’t really seen much of his stand up game yet in the UFC, he does remain somewhat of an unknown, so there’s always a chance he surprises us and lands something clean to end the fight, as 14 of his 15 career wins have come early—but we’ll believe it when we see it. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance it comes early and a 6% chance to land a first round finish.
Fight #9
Devonte Smith
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Bouncing back from a R1 KO loss followed by an Achilles rupture and subsequent lengthy recovery, Smith finished Justin Jaynes in the second round of his most recent fight due to a doctor stoppage as Jaynes’ eye looked like it was about to pop. That fight took place at a 160 lb Catchweight, but Smith normally fights at 155 lb. He had been scheduled to fight grappler Alex da Silva there, but da Silva withdrew and Jaynes stepped in on short notice. Smith did a good job of controlling the distance with his jab and finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 34-11 and in total strikes 46-19. He also landed his only takedown with over three minutes of control time while stuffing both of Jaynes’ attempts. He was able to beat up Jaynes on the mat and nearly finished the fight with a Rear-Naked Choke before Jaynes was able to escape just to have the fight stopped.
Smith originally secured his spot in the UFC with a R1 KO victory on DWCS back in 2018. Coming into the organization with an 8-1 record, and having never been to a decision, Smith exploded onto the scene with back-to-back first round knockouts, including a 46 second finish over Julian Erosa in his debut.
At 2-0 in the UFC in 2019, and on a six fight winning streak, with five of those ending in the first round, Smith had been scheduled to fight John Makdessi. However, Makdessi was forced to withdraw, so Collard stepped in briefly. Then Collard was forced to withdraw due to health issues and Smith’s training partner and good friend Kamara Worthy stepped in on short notice, which is sort of a weird situation to be in for a young fighter.
Despite being a -1000 favorite, Smith got knocked out by the debuting Worthy late in the first round. Following the loss, Smith unfortunately ruptured his Achilles during training. After a grueling recovery process, Smith finally returned to the Octagon following an 18 month layoff in his recent win.
Overall, Smith is a power puncher who has just one takedown since joining the UFC. However, he lands a solid amount of volume as he averages 5.64 SSL/min (2nd highest on the slate).
Jamie Mullarkey
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off a R1 KO against Khama Worthy, who knocked Devonte Smith out in Smith's 2nd most recent fight, Mullarkey dropped Worthy with a left hook to the chin just 46 seconds into the first round. We only saw 11 combined strikes landed in that one, as Mullarkey led 6-5 before closing the show.
Prior to notching what was his first UFC win, Mullarkey lost a pair of decisions in his first two fights with the organization. In his 2019 debut, he took on Brad Riddell, who was also making his debut. Mullarkey showed his toughness in the match, absorbing a 15 minute life-shortening beating from Riddell, who outlanded Mullarkey 91-36 in significant strikes and 104-41 in total strikes. Mullarkey shot for an eyebrow-raising 15 takedown attempts, but only landed three of them. Simply surviving to see a decision was more impressive then some of the wins we’ve seen.
He then took on French kickboxer, Fares Ziam, in October 2020, in what was the second UFC match for each fighter. Ziam came into the fight with a 75% takedown defense, after he defended 9 of 12 attempts in his only other UFC fight. Mullarkey lowered that percentage some as he went 5 for 11 on takedowns in the match. Mullarkey controlled most of the action, adding nearly seven minutes of control time onto his five takedowns. Ziam did lead in significant strikes 47-20, but went 1 for 5 on his own takedown attempts. It looked like Mullarkey had clearly done enough to win the fight, but the judges disagreed and ruled it a unanimous 29-28 decision for Ziam.
Prior to joining the UFC, 13 of Mullarkey’s 14 pro fights ended early, with him winning 11 of those 13. He hadn’t seen the judges since 2014, all the way back in his second pro fight. Mullarkey originally went pro in 2013, at just 19 years old, and won his first eight fights with four KOs and three submissions, including five first round finishes. Then he ran into a buzzsaw in Alexander Volkanovski and suffered his first career loss in a 2016 R1 KO. Mullarkey was then knocked out again in his next fight just five months later, this time in the second round. Following the pair of setbacks, Mullarkey landed four straight KOs of his own before getting called up to the UFC.
Mullarkey notably fought at 145 lb until 2018, when he moved up to the 155 lb division two years after suffering his two career KO losses. He’s now 13-4 as a pro with half of his 16 fights ending in the first round (7-1). His lone first round loss was in the fight against Volkanovski. Nine of his career wins have come by KO and three have been by submission, to go along with just the one decision victory. The only two times he’s been finished both occurred in 2016 KOs down at 145 lb, with his other two career losses ending in decisions in his first two UFC fights.
Fight Prediction:
Mullarkey will have a 3” height advantage, while Smith will have a 2” reach advantage.
This sets up for Smith to land a ton of significant strikes as he averages 5.64 SSL/min (2nd highest on the slate), while Mullarkey absorbs an average of 4.65 SS/min (6th most on the slate). While Mullarkey is a few inches taller, Smith will actually have the longer reach so it will be interesting to see if he can again control the distance. Mullarkey has the grappling advantage, but Smith has notably never been taken down since joining the UFC, albeit only two guys actually tried and they combined to go 0 for 3. This should be an exciting banger with both guys throwing heat and it will likely come down to who’s chin holds up better. Smith has never been to the judges in 13 pro flights and 12 of Mullarkey’s 13 career wins have also come early. Both guys are live to win this one and we think it’s close to a coin flip as to who gets their hand raised. Smith is more explosive and powerful on the feet, but Mullarkey’s equalizer is his grappling advantage and durability. We’ll give the edge to Smith early in the fight, but to Mullarkey the longer the fight goes.
Our two favorite bets here are “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +230 and “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +460.Since we think this fight is essentially a coin flip, you can also consider Mullarkey’s moneyline at +130 or his decision line at +410.
DFS Implications:
Smith has still never been to a decision in his 13 pro fights (11-2) and hasn’t been past the second round in his last six matches, with five of those ending in R1. His three UFC wins have been good for an average of 103 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel. In his one UFC loss his opponent scored 108 DraftKings points and 125 points on FanDuel. This looks like Smith’s toughest test to date, and if anyone can survive to see a decision against Smith it would probably be Mullarkey. That should at least give us some reason for pause when considering how heavily exposed we should be overall on this fight, but at the same time this is the second most likely fight on the card to end early according to the odds and there’s a great chance the winner puts up a big score. Smith should also have the opportunity to potentially defend multiple takedowns, as Mullarkey attempted a crazy 26 takedowns in his first two UFC fights, while only landing eight (31%). His last fight was so short no takedowns were attempted. So we especially like Smith on FanDuel where takedowns defended can boost his score. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 38% chance to get a finish and a 16% chance it comes in R1.
After failing to top 47 DraftKings points in his initial two UFC decision losses, Mullarkey exploded for 128 DraftKings points and 116 FanDuel points in his recent R1 KO victory. That’s generally the time you want to be selling high on fighters for tournaments as their ownership gets a bump up, but now he gets another high-upside matchup in a fight that’s unlikely to go the distance. Both of Smith’s career losses have come by KO (R1 & R3) and 12 of Mullarkey’s 13 pro wins have also come early with nine KOs and three submissions, including seven first round finishes. So the upside is undeniable. He also offers some grappling upside, which could prop up his DraftKings score if he somehow grinds out a decision, so we slightly prefer him over there, just note we’ve yet to see Smith get taken down in the UFC, albeit on just three attempts. The odds imply Mullarkey has a 41% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #8
Karol Rosa
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Entering this fight on a five fight winning streak, Rosa is now 3-0 in the UFC with all three wins ending in decisions. After landing 291 combined significant strikes in her first two UFC fights, we saw her look to grapple more in her most recent match where she took down Joselyne Edwards four times on six attempts and accrued over 11 minutes of control time. Rosa finished ahead in significant strikes 57-38 and 135-70 in total strikes. Edwards attempted three takedowns of her own, but only landed one and finished with just two seconds of control time. Edwards is a dangerous striker and was able to bust open the mouth of Rosa, but it didn’t deter Rosa from continuing to dominate the fight on the ground.
Rosa had originally been scheduled to take on Nicco Montano in that matchup, but Montano pulled out a week and a half before the fight and Joselyne Edwards stepped in on short notice. Rosa has really struggled with canceled fights over the past couple years. Even before joining the UFC she had two fights scheduled and canceled in 2019. Then following her UFC debut, Rosa was scheduled four different times to take on Julia Avila, but withdrew from two of those and the other two events were canceled due to COVID. Following her second UFC fight, she was scheduled to take on Sijara Eubanks back in September 2020, but Rosa withdrew and was "hospitalized for a botched weight cut." Then Montano withdrew from a fight and most recently Rosa withdrew from another booking with Eubanks back in June 2021. This will just be Rosa’s fourth fight to actually happen in her last 13 bookings (fingers crossed).
Rosa made her UFC debut in 2019 and defeated Lara Procopio in a split-decision, but it seemed clear Rosa had done enough to win. In a high-volume shootout, Rosa outlanded Procopio 171-165 in significant strikes and 177-169 in total strikes, while successfully defending all five of Procopio’s takedown attempts. Rosa did a great job of mixing leg kicks into striking combos, which really helped her rack up the massive striking total. She landed 108 significant strikes to the head, 11 to the body and 52 to the legs. It felt like she finished nearly every punching combo with a leg kick.
After dealing with the aforementioned cancelations against Avila over the next 10 months, Rosa was finally able to get back in the Octagon in July 2020 against Vanessa Melo. Interestingly, Rosa landed the exact same total number of strikes in her second UFC fight as she did in her first (177), however this time only 120 registered as significant due to the fact that a number of them were ground strikes. While she landed less significant strikes in the fight, she was able to land two takedowns and almost six minutes of control time. Melo looked outmatched, landing just 45 significant strikes of her own, but fought hard to take the fight to a decision. Melo notably missed weight badly for that fight, coming in 5 lb over the limit.
Prior to joining the UFC, Rosa had seven straight fights end early, which she won five of. Both of her losses over that period came by submission, with a 2018 R1 Kimura against Melissa Gatto and a 2018 R2 Guillotine Choke. Her only other career loss was a 2017 decision and she has never been knocked out. Six of her 14 pro wins have ended early, with four KOs and two submissions. Only two of her 17 pro fights have ended in the first round, with her only R1 win coming all the way back in 2013 in her third pro fight via R1 KO. Her last five fights have all made it to the third round.
Rosa is an ultra high-volume striker who relies more on wearing down her opponents then overwhelming them with power. Her last three early finishes all came in the third round, and the one prior to that was a corner stoppage following the second round. She also had a R2 armbar victory just before that one. Now she’ll face an opponent who has only one career loss before the third round, but notably has two R3 losses in her last four fights.
Bethe Correia
12th UFC Fight (5-5-1)Apparently Correia wants one of those viking funerals where they light the body on fire as they send it out sea as she’s opted to face a young stud in Karol Rosa in her final UFC fight. Correia has lost three of her last four fights and has gone 2-5-1 in her last eight. Her claim to fame is being tough to finish, and she’s essentially a glorified punching bag. Twelve of her 17 pro fights have ended in decisions (9-2-1), and her only two career finishes came in a 2013 R2 KO in her fourth pro fight and a 2014 R2 KO in her ninth pro match. Despite her reputation, she has been finished in three of her five pro losses, including two of her last three with a 2019 R3 Armbar Submission loss against Irene Aldana and a 2017 R3 KO loss against Holly Holm. She was also knocked out in the first round by Ronda Rousey back in 2015. Correia hasn’t been very active lately, with just three fights in the last 4+ years and just one in the last two.
The last time we saw Correia she lost a decision to Pannie Kianzad in July 2020, so it’s now been 15 months since the 38-year-old Correia last fought. She had been scheduled to fight back in January, but was forced to withdraw when she underwent an emergency appendectomy. So her retirement party was pushed back a bit and she was also given a tougher opponent. Anyways, looking at her fight against Kianzad, Correia was outlanded 103-56 in significant strikes and 106-83 in total strikes. Correia went 1 for 5 on her takedown attempts with two minutes of control time, while Kianzad didn’t attempt any takedowns. Kianzad went on to win a unanimous decision as Correia looked lost at times, even thinking the first round ended when the 10 second clapper went off, which she paid for by eating a flurry of strikes from Kianzad. Correia has now been outlanded in eight straight fights and owns a career average of 4.56 SSA/min (7th highest on the slate).
UPDATE: Correia missed weight by 2.5 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” but Rosa will have a 3” reach advantage and is 12 years younger than the 38-year-old Correia.
This sets up as an absolute murder spot as Correia has basically no chance of winning this fight barring a freak injury. Rosa leads the slate with 7.73 SSL/min and should land a million significant strikes if this remains on the feat. Rosa did notably attempt six takedowns in her last fight and Correia attempted five in her last match, but Rosa has an elite 90% takedown defense and Correia has a legit 84% takedown defense of her own, so even if either lady does look to level change, this fight will more likely than not remain a striking battle. Correia appears ready to go out in a blaze of glory and Rosa is the perfect opponent to oblige, so we’re expecting a high-volume mauling that most likely ends in a Rosa decision win, with a chance for a late finish.
Now bet up to -165, it’s hard to get excited about Rosa’s decision line, but you can consider her R2 or R3 win lines at +1100 and +1400 as long shot options. Another safe play is her R3 or decision line at -220. Our favorite longshot is her R3 line.
DFS Implications:
Despite all three of her UFC fights ending in decisions, Rosa has been rock solid in DFS through sheer striking volume in her first two matches and then through grappling most recently. She landed 171 significant strikes in her 2019 debut and followed it up with 120 landed in her next match. That led the way for scores of 112 and 110 respectively on DraftKings and 150 and 110 on FanDuel. Her most recent grappling-heavy decision win still scored well on DraftKings with 109 points, but only scored 84 points on FanDuel as her DK score was largely driven by total strikes and control time. We expect this next one to be a high-volume brawl so Rosa should score well on both sites regardless of whether the fight ends in a decision. Rosa looks like a high floor, high ceiling play who makes sense in all contest types. She’s easily the safest play on the slate. The odds imply she has an 81% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Take all the nice things we said about Rosa, reverse them and you have our Correia take. She rarely scores well, needs a finish to be useful, and is possibly the grossest play on the slate with a low floor and a low ceiling. She hasn’t topped 60 DraftKings points since 2014 and now faces her toughest opponent in years. The only reason you should even consider Correia is that she’ll be incredibly low owned and will be in a high-volume brawl. But the chances of her actually winning seem far lower than what the books are indicating. The odds imply she has a 19% chance to win, an 8% chance to get a finish and a 4% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #7
Casey O'Neill
3rdth UFC Fight (2-0)If this slate was an episode of the Simpsons, it would begin with Bart writing “I Will Never Again Consider Fading Casey O’Neill” on the blackboard.
Appropriately nicknamed, King Casey is now 7-0 as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC with her last three wins all coming early in the latter two rounds of fights. She made her UFC debut in February 2021 and put on a dominating ground and pound performance against Shana Dobson. O'Neill finished the fight ahead 49-16 in significant strikes and 132-27 in total strikes. She went 4 for 6 on her takedown attempts, which hilariously improved Dobson’s career takedown defense from 0% to 14% after she had been taken down on all eight of her previous opponents’ attempts over her first five UFC fights. O’Neill also accrued almost seven and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over eight and a half minutes. O’Neill honestly couldn’t have asked for a better matchup in her debut as she has shown that she generally wants to get fights to the mat as quickly as possible and the UFC gave her an opponent with no ground game, who came in with a 0% takedown defense.
Taking on a far more experienced grappler in her second UFC fight, O'Neill went up against BJJ black belt Lara Procopio. The first round was close, with Procopio coming out ahead in strikes and takedowns. She then immediately took O’Neill down to start the second round, but then O'Neill completely took over the fight as she dominated Procopio from that point on before submitting her in the third round. O'Neill finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 71-41 and in total strikes 176-76. She also landed 1 of her 2 takedown attempts with nearly six minutes of controle time, while Procopio went 2 for 5 on her attempts with just under three minutes of control time. It is worth mentioning that Procopio was apparently dealing with some sort of stomach issue that may have played a role in her dramatic drop off midway through the fight. The UFC curiously cut Procopio (1-2) after that fight, so maybe there was something else they were displeased with as most fighters in her situation would get at least one more chance.
Still just 23 years old, O'Neill lacks the experience and technical refinement that many of her opponents possess, but she’s been able to overcome that with pure aggression and athleticism. Her biggest weakness at this stage in her career appears to be her striking defense and she needs to improve her head movement to avoid taking so many straight shots up the middle.
O'Neill started her pro career at 115 lb, but moved up to 125 lb in 2020 for her fourth pro fight, where she’s since gone 4-0 after going 3-0 at 115 lb. She trained at Tiger Muay Thai for a period of time, but moved to Vegas in 2020 when Thailand was essentially shut down for COVID.
O'Neill’s father is a former fighter and the owner of Eternal MMA, which is the Australian promotion O'Neill fought her first four fights under and became the Strawweight Champion of. O'Neill sits on a perfect, albeit limited, 7-0 record with two KO wins, two submission victories and three decisions. All of her decisions occurred in her first four pro fights and she has since finished her last three opponents with a pair of R2 KOs and a R3 submission.
Overall, O'Neill does her best work on the mat as she’s constantly throwing strikes and hunting for submissions. In her two UFC fights, she has averaged 5.56 SSL/min (3rd highest on the slate) and 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes (also 3rd highest on the slate), while absorbing just 2.64 SS/min (9th lowest on the slate).
Antonina Shevchenko
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Alternating wins and losses over her last six fights, Shevchenko is coming off a R2 submission loss against Andrea Lee and her last three losses have all resulted from her getting controlled and/or finished on the mat.
In her fight against Lee, the majority of the first round played out on the feet, but Lee was able to get Shevchenko down late in the round and finish on top throwing elbows. Lee was able to quickly get the fight back to the ground to start R2 and then actually locked Shevchenko into a Triangle Choke as Shevchenko looked to escape. They remained in that position for several minutes as Lee threw elbows to the head of Shevchenko and adjusted the position to try and finish the submission. It looked like Lee might gas out her legs as the round neared a close, but with just eight seconds remaining she was finally able to grab an arm and force a tap.
Just prior to that fight, Shevchenko won with a smothering R2 ground and pound TKO stoppage against Ariane Lipski. Shevchenko is known as a pure Muay Thai striker, but was able to show an improving ground game in that fight after looking helpless on the mat in her previous bout. In that fight, Shevchenko was credited with one takedown on three attempts, although it easily could have been two. She amassed over seven and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just nine and a half minutes. She also came out ahead in significant strikes 39-15 and total strikes 94-25 as the fight was stopped late in the second round as she pummeled her downed opponent.
Prior to that win, Shevchenko lost a three round decision beatdown at the hands of Katlyn Chookagian. Chookagian dominated Shevchenko on the ground as she went 3 for 3 on takedowns and accrued 10:36 of control time, while recording four official submission attempts. She also led in significant strikes 73-25 and by a much wider margin in total strikes at 200-37.
Four of Shevchenko’s nine career wins came against 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 and 0-1 opponents. So while the older of the two Shevchenko sisters has an 9-3 record, it’s less impressive than it appears on paper. She’s gone just 3-3 in the UFC as she has alternated wins and losses since joining the organization. Shevchenko’s third UFC loss came in a decision against Roxanne Modafferi in 2019. Of her nine wins, three have come by KO, one has ended in a submission and five have gone the distance. She’s also only been finished once, which occurred in her last fight, while her other two career losses both went the distance.
Shevchenko has never been involved in a fight that ended in the first round and all five of her fights to end early (4-1) have been stopped in round two, with her other seven matches ending in decisions (5-2). Three of her last four fights have come by R2 stoppage.
She originally went pro in 2002 and fought three times between then and 2005. Then she stepped away from MMA for 12 long years until 2017 when she eventually returned. During her time away she became a Muay Thai and K1 world champion before returning to MMA. She started her career at 135 lb, but moved down to 125 lb when she went on DWCS in 2018 and that’s where she’s stayed.
She only has three takedowns in her six UFC fights, with just one in her last five matches. With a Muay Thai background, she’s generally regarded as a pure striker, but surprised some people in her win over Lipski with her ground control. Shevchenko has never lost two fights in a row, but she has her work cut out for her here.
Fight Prediction:
Shevchenko will have a 2” height advantage, but O'Neill will have a 2” reach advantage.
A former Muay Thai and K1 world champion, Shevchenko has the technical advantage on the feet, but O'Neill should be licking her chops after watching the tape on Shevchenko’s three losses as she was beat up on the mat. That plays perfectly into O'Neill’s skillset and we like this fight to quickly end up on the mat with O'Neill furiously throwing ground strikes and hunting for submissions. We like O'Neill to get another mid to late round stoppage win and continue her perfect record.
The safest bet here is clearly O'Neill’s moneyline at -200. We also love her R2 and R3 win lines at +650 and +850 respectively. It’s always hard to predict if she’ll finish fights with a KO or submission but we like her R2 and R3 submission lines at +1500 and +1900, respectively, as good longer shot options. We prefer the R2 lines over the R3 options for what it’s worth.
DFS Implications:
O'Neill has so far broken every slate she’s been on with DK/FD scores of 110/118 (as a dog) and 140/133 in her first two UFC fights. Her aggressive style leads to massive amounts of ground strikes as she landed 176 total strikes in her last fight and 132 before that. So she’s averaged a ridiculous 14.27 total strikes landed per minute so far in the UFC. She’s also landed five takedowns in less than five rounds of action and has averaged 60.85% control time. So overall she’s been absolutely dominating her opponents on the mat and in the end that’s exactly what you’re looking for in a fighter when you go up against Antonina Shevchenko, who’s proven to be most vulnerable on the ground. O'Neill projects to be a popular play, but she has a massive ceiling and solid floor so you’ll still want heavy exposure here in all contest types. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 38% chance to get a finish and a 16% chance it comes in the first round.
Shevchenko failed to put up usable DFS scores in her first two UFC wins, despite one of those ending in a second round submission, but scored 115 DraftKings points and 113 points on FanDuel in her most recent R2 KO win. Her lone UFC decision win scored just 79 DraftKings points and 72 points on FanDuel. Her first UFC finish, which came by R2 submission, scored just 84 DraftKings points, but did total 112 points on FanDuel. Because she’s failed to land a takedown in four of her last five fights and has never landed more than 66 significant strikes in a match, she’s entirely reliant on an early finish to score well. She is somewhat interesting in tournaments where she projects to go low owned and could potentially serve as a value play even with a less than spectacular win if we get a favorite heavy outcome on the rest of the slate. She should have the opportunity to defend multiple takedowns and this projects to be a pace up fight. So while we don’t think Shevchenko has much of a chance to win (less than the odds indicate), if she does win, she should score well. And with that said, the odds imply she has a 34% chance to win this fight, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance that it comes in the first round.
Fight #6
Joe Solecki
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Coming off a grappling-heavy decision win over his idol Jim Miller, Solecki curiously pulled guard midway through the first round despite the fact that he appeared to be winning the striking exchanges. That mistake kept him on his back for the second half of the round, but he bounced back in the later two rounds. Solecki was able to take Miller down early in R2 and keep him there for the entire round. Solecki was able to get the fight back to the ground early in R3 and again hold Miller there for another whole round. The disappointing fight ended with Solecki ahead 19-11 in significant strikes and 93-45 in total strikes. He went 1 for 4 on his takedown attempts as Miller rolled into one of the takedowns, looking to either grab a knee or escape from Solecki’s grasp, so that didn’t count as a takedown for Solecki. We saw over 11 minutes of combined control time, with Solecki finishing ahead 9:23-2:03.
Solecki got his shot in the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS in 2019, and then absolutely smothered veteran Matt Wiman for 15 minutes in his 2019 UFC debut. Solecki led in significant strikes 56-10, total strikes 177-20, takedowns 4-0, and control time 12:29-0:06 and you’d be hard pressed to know he was making his debut simply by watching the fight.
He followed up the lopsided decision win with a first round finish in his next match against Austin Hubbard. After starting off the fight with some striking, Soelcki backpacked Hubbard two minutes into the first round, slowly working his way around Hubbard’s neck and forcing him to tap while still standing up.
Now on a six fight winning streak, Solecki has won eight of his last nine fights, with five first round finishes over that time. He’s alternated decision wins and R1 submission wins over his last six fights and is now coming off a decision victory. Ten of his 11 career wins have either come by R1 submission (7) or decision (3), with the one exception coming in a 2017 R1 KO. Sitting on an 11-2 pro record, the only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2018 R3 KO against Nikolas Motta, who had recently been scheduled to make his UFC debut but his opponent wasn’t medically cleared so the fight was canceled. Solecki’s only other career loss came in a 2017 decision in his fourth pro fight. Five of his seven submission wins have ended in Rear-Naked Chokes, but he also has Guillotine and Triangle Choke wins on his record. The only time one of his fights has ended in the second or third rounds was in his R3 KO loss.
Joe Solecki is a BJJ black belt and a dominant grappler, but he also has crisp striking and is far from helpless on the feet. However, he normally doesn’t stay standing long enough to prove that as he’s constantly looking to get fights to the ground. In his three UFC fights, he has averaged an absurd 72.33% control time, while getting controlled himself for just 6.35% of the time, which pretty much was entirely from the first round against Jim Miller.
Jared Gordon
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Gordon has bounced between the Featherweight and Lightweight divisions throughout his career, but his last two fights were both scheduled to take place at Featherweight (145 lb). However, in his first fight back down at Featherweight since joining the UFC Gordon’s opponent, Chris Fishgold, missed weight badly as he tipped the scales at 149 lb so the fight was technically moved to a Catchweight, although Gordon did weigh in at 145 lb. For his most recent fight, it was Gordon who missed weight badly, coming in at 150 lb (4 lb over the limit) and it was also moved to a Catchweight. Despite the weight issues, Gordon won both of those fights by decision. Now tired of dealing with the weigh-in drama, Gordon will be moving back up to 155 lb for this fight. If you’re wondering why he tried to move down a weight class in the first place, Gordon was notably knocked out in three of his last four fights at 155 lb.
In his most recent fight, Gordon defeated Danny Chavez in a decision, which is how four of Gordon’s five UFC wins have ended. The first round played out entirely on the feet with Gordon leading in striking. However, Gordon was able to get Chavez to the mat in the second round and keep him there for the remainder of the round while he peppered him with ground strikes. After trading on the feet for the first half of the third round, Gordon was able to return the fight to the mat and then finish the fight clinching along the fence after Chavez was able to return to his feet.
In his second most recent fight, Gordon defeated Chris Fishgold in a July decision where Gordon landed a profuse number of ground strikes in the final minutes of the fight. He ended the fight with 241 total strikes (131 in R3), but just 44 significant. Fishgold went through a tough weight cut/miss going into the fight and appeared to have nothing left in his tank by the third round. Fishgold was also coming off a loss going into the fight, and has now lost three of his last four fights.
Prior to those two decision wins, Gordon was knocked out by Charles Oliveira just 86 seconds into the first round. Gordon did have another decision win leading up to that KO loss, but was knocked out two more times before that. Prior to getting knocked out three times over the course of four fights, Gordon won his first two UFC fights and landed a R2 KO in his 2017 UFC debut, which is his only early win in the organization.
Overall, Gordon likes to get fights to the ground and beat up opponents on the mat to grind out decision victories. He has a highly dubious chin so it makes sense that he prefers to get fights to the ground, but the last two high-level grapplers Gordon has faced have both knocked him out in the first round.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Solecki will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is an incredibly tough matchup for Gordon as it will be tough to implement his normal gameplan of taking his opponent down and beating him up for 15 minutes. Solecki is a BJJ black belt and a dominant grappler who hasn’t had the need to use his striking much but looks crisp with his punches. It will be interesting to see how this fight plays out, as both of these fighters are accustomed to dominating opponents on the mat. Oftentimes that results in a grappling stalemate where fights remain on the feet, but it’s always hard to predict that with confidence going in. Gordon has averaged 50.31% control time and just 6.61% control time against in his last six fights, while Solecki has averaged 72.33% control time and just 6.35% control time in his three UFC fights. So clearly something will have to give here. All four of Gordon’s career losses have come by KO, so even though 10 of Solecki’s 11 career wins have come by submission or decision, there’s a reasonable chance he gets his second career KO win here. It’s still more likely we see him win with either an early submission or in a grappling heavy decision, but all the options are on the table. Regardless, we like Solecki to win this fight.
Ten of Solecki’s 11 career wins have either come by R1 submission (7) or decision (3) so both of those lines are always squarely in play. However, Gordon’s suspect chin also presents the possibility for a KO here. Overall our favorite bets are Solecki’s moneyline at -136, “Solecki Wins by KO” at +1000, “Solecki ITD” at +280, “Solecki Wins by R1 Submission” at +1000 and “Solecki Wins in R1” at +750.
DFS Implications:
Solecki has shown the ability to score well on DraftKings whether he wins early or smothers his opponent for the full 15 minutes. The same cannot be said on FanDuel, as Solecki scored a whopping 119 DraftKings points in his decision win in his UFC debut, but just 78 points on FanDuel. However, his most recent decision failed to score well on either site, but still performed twice as well on DraftKings where it scored 74 points, compared to just 37 points on FanDuel. So while it’s not a lock Solecki scores well in a decision on DraftKings, he definitely has the ability to, while he clearly needs a finish on FanDuel. There’s also the chance that this fight plays out more on the feet than expected as both guys generally do their best work on the mat. Gordon has shown a highly dubious chin, with all four of his career losses coming by KO. While Solecki only has one knockout victory on his record, this would be as likely a time as any to extend that to two. As the second cheapest favorite on DraftKings and tied for the cheapest on FanDuel, Solecki projects to be popular, but his recent lower scoring decision could keep his ownership from getting completely out of control. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Gordon is another guy who generally scores much better on DraftKings compared to FanDuel as he’s averaged 113 DraftKings points but just 90 FanDuel points in his five UFC wins. However, this looks like an incredibly tough matchup for Gordon to score well on either DFS site as he relies on taking opponents down and landing massive amounts of ground strikes to win fights and Solecki is a high-level grappler and BJJ black belt. No one has been able to even attempt a takedown on Solecki in his last four fights, let alone land one. Gordon is also moving back up to 155 lb after attempting to move down to 145 lb for his last two fights, but instead competing at a pair of Catchweights. Gordon has notably been knocked out in three of his last four fights at 155 lb, which makes it even tougher to like him in DFS. Overall, we have little interest in playing Gordon. With that said, the odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #5
Alexander Hernandez
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Hernandez had originally been scheduled to face Leonardo Santos here, but Santos withdrew and Breeden was announced as the replacement with just eight days’ notice.
Coming off a decision loss to Thiago Moises in a fight that somewhat surprisingly played out entirely on the feet, Hernandez has now alternated wins and losses over his last six fights and should probably start shopping for a more appropriate nickname. Moises narrowly outlanded Hernandez 53-50 in significant strikes in a pure kickboxing battle and appeared to do a better job defensively to avoid taking any real damage, while also landing the more impactful shots. Hernandez was absolutely shocked that he lost, but the guy probably beats it to a photograph of himself so what do you expect?
That was Hernandez’s first decision loss since joining the UFC and just the second of his career, with the first one coming in a split-decision against Jamall Emmers in Hernandez’s third pro fight. Hernandez’s other two UFC losses both came by R2 KO against Drew Dober and Donald Cerrone.
Hernandez made a name for himself in the UFC in his 2018 debut with a flukey 42 second R1 KO against a really tough veteran Beneil Dariush, who hasn’t lost a fight since—including a submission win over Drew Dober who dominated Hernandez. Hernandez showed his true colors in the opening seconds of his introduction to the UFC, starting the fight with a scummy fake touch of gloves kick to the body cheapshot. Unsurprising, Hernandez says he idolizes T.J. Dillashaw.
Hernandez followed up his debut with a low-volume three round decision win against Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his next fight, before getting knocked out by Donald Cerrone on the undercard of Hernandez’s man crush Dillashaw. He must have been devastated, and to make matters worse Dillashaw got knocked out in 32 seconds and then popped for PEDs and suspended. Tough night to be an asshole.
However, Hernandez bounced back from the loss as he narrowly beat Francisco Trinaldo in a three round staring contest, where both guys landed just 25 significant strikes and no takedowns. Following the win over Trinaldo, Hernandez took a beating from Drew Dober who ended their fight late in the second round after nearly landing twice as many significant strikes. Then, just prior to his recent decision loss, Hernandez knocked out Chris Gruetzemacher in the first round, although Gruetzemacher was coming off a two and a half year layoff, looked dreadful and had lost two of his previous last three fights.
Hernandez is now 12-4 as a pro, with five wins by KO, two by submission and five decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, both times in the second round, and lost a pair of decisions. Five of his last six fights have made it out of the first round, with three seeing the third round. Hernandez was a high school wrestler and is a BJJ brown belt. He’s never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a fight and has failed to land a takedown in five of his seven UFC matches. He did, however, land seven combined takedowns in his other two UFC fights and has the ability to wrestle when he wants to.
Mike Breeden
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut with a 10-3 pro record, Breeden has eight wins by KO and two by decision. Five of his career KO wins have come in the first round, two have ended in round three and one was stopped in round two. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2018 R1 KO, with his other two career losses both ending in decisions. Breeden originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a hardfought decision and was forced to return to the regional scene. He stands a little flatfooted at times and got his legs absolutely destroyed on DWCS, but he showed off his toughness as he gutted through till the end, continuing to hunt for a knockout despite the fact that he could barely stand.
Breeden trains out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause, which is always a plus, so you know he’ll be well coached. While he generally fights at 155 lb, he’s also competed at 170 lb in the past, so he’s accustomed to taking heavy shots. Breeden knocked out Brandon Jenkins, who got destroyed in his own UFC debut two weeks ago, with a Flying Knee in a 2019 LFA fight just before going on DWCS. Since his appearance on the show, Breeden landed a second round knockout before most recently winning a decision. Breeden’s five wins leading up to that decision victory had all come by KO. He’s won five of his last six fights with the one loss over that stretch coming in the DWCS decision.
Overall, Breeden looks like a one dimensional striker, but he will occasionally mix in takedown attempts. He relies mostly on his boxing and looks most vulnerable to being chopped down from the bottom up.
UPDATE: Breeden missed weight by 2.5 lb and didn’t look great.
Fight Prediction:
Breeden will have a 1” height advantage, but Hernandez will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is a tough spot for Breeden to make his UFC debut, and the odds agree as he opened as the biggest underdog on the slate and the line has just gotten wider from there. It represents a big step down in competition for Hernandez, who has mostly faced really tough opponents since joining the UFC. Breeden has a chance to make this at least somewhat competitive on the feet, but Hernandez has better footwork and should have a large grappling advantage, although he may only turn to that if he’s behind or hurt. We certainly expect Hernandez to win here, but it’s not impossible that Breeden lands something clean and pulls off the massive KO upset as he has decent power and mixes in Flying Knees. In general we think Hernandez is overrated. With that said, we’re still picking Hernandez to win this fight, but wouldn’t be shocked if Breeden took him to a decision, with the most likely outcome still being a knockout.
Four of Hernandez’s five career KOs have occurred in the first rounds of fights, as have both of his submission victories. The only time he’s finished an opponent beyond the first round was a R3 KO in 2017, so in general his fights that make it past the first five minutes end up going the distance. The odds are so wide in this one that we actually prefer betting the “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +250 opposed to “Hernandez Wins by R1 KO” at +360. We also like “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +500.
DFS Implications:
Hernandez has been more or less a bipolar R1 KO or bust play in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 112 and 128 in his two R1 KOs, but just 41 and 93 points in his two decision victories. He gets a step down in competition here as his original opponent Leonardo Santos dropped out and Mike Breeden stepped in on just eight days’ notice. Because of that, Hernandez opened as the biggest favorite on the slate, with the odds continuing to move in his favor as the week went on. Breeden does look somewhat durable, and has only been finished once in his career, so this definitely isn’t a cakewalk matchup for Hernandez to land a KO, but he should have a sizable advantage and has a good chance of getting a finish. Hernandez has historically done a good job on bouncing back from losses as he’s never lost two fights in a row and has now alternated wins and losses over his last six fights. Limiting his ceiling somewhat, Hernandez only averages 3.57 SSL/min and has failed to land a takedown in five of his seven UFC bouts. He also has just one knockdown in his last six fights and was outclassed on the feet by Thiago Moises in his last fight. We expect Hernandez to be highly owned and he likely needs a R1 KO to return value, so there are lots of reasons to fade him in tournaments, but he does have a solid chance to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply he has an 81% chance to win, a 48% chance to get a finish and a 22% chance it comes in R1.
Checking in as the biggest underdog on the slate, Breeden has his work cutout for him to pull off the upset. Working in his favor, Hernandez has been knocked out in two of his last three losses and is cockier than a porn set. That overconfidence has the potential to leave his chin exposed at some point in this fight and Breeden is a knockout specialist with 8 of his 10 career wins coming by KO. We don’t expect Breeden to add anything in the grappling department and it will be tough for him to win a decision, so you’re really just relying on a knockout if you play him. He projects to be extremely low owned and has a puncher’s chance to get a finish, so we like sprinkling him into your tournament lineups. The odds imply he has a 19% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #4
Krzysztof Jotko
15th UFC Fight (9-5)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Sean Strickland, Jotko has fought to four straight decisions after getting knocked out in consecutive fights in 2017 and 2018. The last time Jotko finished an opponent was all the way back in 2016 when he landed a R1 knockout against Tamdan McCrory, who ended up 4-5 in the UFC and was finished in four of his five losses. That’s Jotko’s only early win in the UFC and you have to go all the way back to 2012 before he joined the UFC to find his second most recent finish, which ended in a second round Rear-Naked Choke. Ten of his UFC fights have ended in decisions (8-2), three have ended in KOs (1-2) and one ended in a submission (0-1). Jotko has now lost four of his last seven fights and has given us no reason to be optimistic in him moving forward.
Following shoulder surgery and a year layoff, Jotko looked bad in his recent loss. Strickland easily backed him up and picked him apart for three rounds, as Jotko never had a chance in the fight. Strickland finished ahead in strikes 84-37, with Jotko failing on the only takedown attempted in the fight. Despite Strickland leading every round in striking by a wide margin (26-14, 23-11, 35-12) Adalaide Byrd ridiculously gave Jotko one round while the other two judges rightfully awarded Strickland a clear 30-27 decision.
Looking at his entire pro career, 17 of his 27 fights have gone the distance, but he did land five KOs and a submission win prior to joining the UFC, although all of those came against low level competition. At this point in his career, it seems safe to completely disregard those pre-UFC results. Jotko has gone 1 for 13 on takedown attempts in his last three fights, with 0 for 1, 0 for 5, and 1 for 7 lackluster outings.
On paper, Jotko has an impressive 87% takedown defense. However, he’s built that up against a series of opponents with terrible takedown accuracy. Ten fighters have attempted at least one takedown on Jotko and they combined to go 8 for 62 on their attempts. However, those ten opponents currently own an average career takedown accuracy of just 28%. Amazingly, only one opponent holds an accuracy above 37% and that’s Magnus Cedenbladm (64% takedown accuracy) who took Jotko down three times on five attempts before submitting him in the second round. For the record, that fight did occur all the way back in 2014, but since then Jotko has exclusively faced opponents with terrible takedown accuracy (7%, 18%, 15%, 27%, 32%, 27%, 25%, and 32%).
Jotko is an uninspiring low-volume slot filler who’s sole goal in fighting appears to be survival. Despite fighting to ten decisions with the UFC, he’s never landed more than 74 significant strikes and has only topped two takedowns once.
Misha Cirkunov
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Extending his streak of fights to end in R1 to seven (3-4), Cirkunov is coming off a R1 KO loss to Ryan Spann. Cirkunov foolishly allowed the fight to remain on the feet as he failed to even consider shooting for a takedown until it was too late and ended the fight with no official attempts as Spann finished him in just 71 seconds. Cirkunov’s glass chin continued to let him down as Spann dropped him with the first real clean shot he landed, just 47 seconds into the fight. Spann smartly let Cirkunov back up to his feet, just to shove him back down and finish him with hammer fists shortly thereafter.
That was Cirkunov’s fourth UFC loss, with all four ending in R1 KOs. He has faced tough competition throughout his career, with his previous three losses coming against Johnny Walker, Glover Teixeira and Volkan Oezdemir. Following his most recent KO loss he made the decision to drop down from Light Heavyweight (205 lb) to Middleweight (185 lb) for the first time in his career, so it will be interesting to see how he looks at the new weight class.
All six of his UFC wins have also come early, with five submissions in his last five victories and one KO in his 2015 UFC debut. His last three submission wins have all occurred in the first round, while he also has R2 and R3 submission wins back in his second and third UFC fights.
Prior to his recent loss, Cirkunov didn’t fight at all in 2020 after suffering a torn bicep that forced him into an 18 month layoff following an impressive first round submission win over a really tough Jimmy Crute. A BJJ blackbelt with a background in Judo, Greco-Roman wrestling and freestyle wrestling, Cirkunov is a dangerous grappler with eight of his total 15 career wins coming by submission, including seven in R1. He’s unexceptional on the feet and has a highly suspect chin, but he does have five career wins by KO. However, four of those five came prior to joining the UFC, including three in his first four pro fights back in 2010 and 2011. His fourth was in his 2015 UFC debut against Daniel Jolly, who’s amazingly been knocked out in the first round in 5 of his last 6 fights. And just to reiterate, Cirkunov’s last 5 wins have all come by submission.
With his last 15 fights ending early, including his last seven in R1, Cirkunov has only been to two decisions and it’s been nearly a decade since his last one in December 2011. Of his 21 career fights, 19 have ended early, including 13 of his 15 wins and all six of his losses. He’s been knocked out four times and submitted twice, although both of those submission losses occurred early in his career.
After knocking out Jolly in his 2015 UFC debut, Cirkunov rattled off three straight submission victories with notable wins over Ion Cutelaba and Nikita Krylov. However, since starting off 4-0 with the organization Cirkunov has been knocked out in four of his last six fights. Over that stretch he finished an old Patrick Cummins with an Arm-Triangle Choke in 2018, before his impressive finish of Jimmy Crute with a crazy Peruvian Necktie in 2019.
There’s legitimate reason for concern with Cirkunov’s chin and toughness. In his first UFC loss back in 2017, Cirkunov went down alarmingly easily from a single Oezdemir punch just 28 seconds into the fight. Then in his next fight, Glover got him to the ground, took his back and then transitioned to a mount after Cirkunov escaped the Rear-Naked Choke. Once mounted, Cirkunov essentially conceded, just covering up and not even fighting back. In his second most recent loss, he got knocked out in 38 seconds by a flying knee against Johnny Walker. And then in his most recent loss he just shelled up once Spann had him on the ground. Overall, he doesn’t seem great at handling adversity, although he showed some level of resiliency against Jimmy Crute in their match, as they briefly went back and forth before Cirkunov eventually landed the submission.
Overall, Cirkunov has the finish or get finished mentality and has no desire to take much damage. He’s an extremely dangerous grappler, but essentially concedes fights at the first sign of trouble. Thirteen of his last 15 fights have ended in R1, with the other two ending early in R2 and R3.
Fight Prediction:
Cirkunov will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 77” reach.
Cirkunov has recently been facing a slew of tough opponents in Ryan Spann, Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker, Glover Teixeira, Volkan Oezdemir, Nikita Krylov and Ion Cutelaba. Now at age 34 he’s dropping down to 185 lb for the first time in his career and facing a far less dangerous opponent in decision machine Krzysztof Jotko. Assuming the weight cut goes according to plan, we love Cirkunov to bounce back with another submission win. Cirkunov really struggles when he gets hit in the face by power punchers, but Jotko doesn’t fit that bill and will have to land some crazy spinning attack to cause serious damage. We have seen Cirkunov essentially give up at various points once he’s been rocked, so there is a chance Jotko lands something and Cirkunov simply decides he doesn't want to fight anymore, but give us Cirkunov by R1 submission here.
How can you not love “Cirkunov Wins by R1 Submission” at +750 after his last three wins have all come by R1 submission? That’s easily our favorite bet here. We also like his overall submission line at +330 and you can consider his R2 submission line at +1300 as a hedge. The closest we’re willing to come to betting on Jotko is betting that this fight ends in R1 at +190, but if you want to light money on fire you can look at “Jotko Wins by R1 KO” at +550.
DFS Implications:
Outside of a flukey R1 KO win back in 2016, Jotko has been almost entirely unusable in DFS. His only three wins in his last seven fights have all come by decision and he only averages 2.94 SSL/min and 2.2 SSA/min. The only time he put up a semi-usable DraftKings score in a decision was when he landed four takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control time in 2019, which will not be happening here against a grappling specialist like Cirkunov. There’s exactly one reason to like Jotko in this spot and it has nothing to do with him, as it’s entirely based on who he’s fighting. Cirkunov has a glass chin and no desire to continue fighting once he takes a clean shot. All six of his career losses have come early, with the last five ending in three minutes or less and three of his last four losses taking no more than 71 seconds each. Keep in mind Cirkunov has been fighting monsters up at 205 lb and now he’s dropping down to 185 lb to take on a far less imposing opponent in Jotko. With that said, dropping down a weight class for the first time at age 34 makes this a high variance spot. Jotko was only 10% owned when he recently took on Sean Strickland as an underdog priced at $7,000, so we don’t expect him to carry much ownership as a favorite priced at $8,600. He’s the type of gross play that we want to bet against all day, but then donks his way into a finish and ends up in the optimal lineup at super low ownership, just saying. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 33% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in R1.
Cirkunov has scored 108 or more DraftKings points in five of his six UFC wins. However, his one fight to make it past the second round only scored 72 points despite finishing it with a R3 submission win. He leads the slate with 4.18 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and should put on a dominating grappling performance as long as he doesn’t get knocked out first, which in fairness is always one chin tap away. All 10 of his UFC fights have ended early, with eight ending in R1 (4-4). Jotko has made a career out of fighting to decisions, so something will have to give here. With Cirkunov dropping down to 185 lb for the first time in his career, we don’t entirely know what to expect out of him. The two most likely outcomes are that he’ll either look really slow or really strong. Both of those should contribute to a quick finish for one of these two fighters, at least as long as Jotko doesn’t completely throw up on himself if Cirkunov looks slow and terrible. We’re still optimistic that Cirkunov will be able to complete the weight cut and not look dreadful, so we like his chances to get Jotko down and submit him in the first round. Jotko does own an 87% takedown defense, but we think that number could be somewhat fraudulent as it’s come against a series of opponents with terrible takedown accuracy. The only time Jotko has ever faced an opponent with a takedown accuracy above 37%, he was taken down three times on five attempts and submitted in the second round. Cirkunov has a 71% takedown accuracy. Keep in mind that you always want exposure to both sides of a Cirkunov fight, even when one side is as gross as Jotko. The odds imply Cirkunov has a 43% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #3
Niko Price
14th UFC Fight (6-5, 2 NC)Wins have been few and far between for Price lately as he has just two in his last seven fights and none in his last three. He did fight to a draw against Donald Cerrone, but it was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC. Ignoring the meaningless failed drug test, Price is 2-4-1 in his last seven matches and hasn’t won a fight in almost exactly two years. Considering he took the Phillip Rivers path to parenthood, he should be desperate for a win here to support his small village that’s now expecting another member.
In his most recent fight, Price took on crazy man Michel Pereira, who outlanded Price 92-76 in significant strikes, while Price narrowly led 120-115 in total strikes. Pereira also landed 3 of his 6 takedown attempts with nearly three minutes of control time, while Price missed on both of his attempts. At one point Pereira backflipped into full mount as Price lay on the ground, but Pereira’s foot struck Price’s face during that maneuver, which has to be illegal, right? Pereira’s constant movement and grappling made it tough for Price to stand and trade the way he likes to. Each guy had their moments in the fight, but it was Price looking for a finish late as he was clearly the fresher fighter at the end. However, he simply ran out of time and Pereira won the decision.
Just before that, Price fought to an unfortunate draw against Donald Cerrone. Price was deducted a point for a pair of accidental eye pokes in the first round, and then on top of that the draw was later overturned to a No Content when Price tested positive for THC (before the rules were changed). Price outlanded Cerrone 150-113 in significant strikes and 167-113 in total strikes, while missing on his only takedown attempt, but also defending all five of Cerrone’s attempts.
Prior to the NC/Draw, Price’s first 11 UFC fights all ended early, with the first 10 ending in the opening two rounds. Only 3 of his 21 pro fights have gone the distance, with four of his five career losses coming early, including three KOs and one submission. He has 10 career KO wins, three submission victories and just one decision win. He also had a 2017 R2 KO victory overturned to a No Contest for another failed drug test. While Price has only been to the third round four times in his 21 pro fights, three of those notably came in his last three fights.
Before the NC/Draw against Cerrone, Price lost via TKO from a doctor stoppage in a crazy brawl against Vicente Luque. His five fights leading up to the Luque loss all ended in knockouts in the first two rounds, with a R1 KO win against James Vick, a R2 KO loss to Geoff Neal, a R1 KO win against Tim Means, a R1 KO loss to Abdul Razak Alhassan and a R2 KO win against Randy Brown, who just submitted Price’s next opponent, Alex Oliveira.
Overall, Price is a high paced brawler who averages 5.29 SSL/min (5th highest on the slate), while absorbing 5.87/min (most on the slate). Price doesn’t mix in many takedowns, with just five landed in 13 UFC fights and only one in his last seven fights.
Alex Oliveira
21st UFC Fight (11-8, NC)Similar to Price, Oliveira has just two wins in his last seven fights, and one of those came from a split-decision so it could be even worse. Oliveira is coming off a pair of first round submission losses and amazingly tapped to a one armed Rear-Naked Choke against Randy Brown in the first round of his last fight. Brown dropped Oliveira 87 seconds into the fight and looked close to landing a knockout. Oliveira was able to hang on and return to his feet, but Brown took his back on the feet and got one arm under his chin, which is apparently all he needed as he dragged Oliveira back to the ground and immediately forced a tap.
That recent loss came six months after Oliveira was submitted by UFC newcomer Shavkat Rakhmonov, who in fairness looks like an absolute monster. Oliveira curiously accepted that fight on short notice and proceeded to miss weight by 2 lb and then get submitted late in the first round. So overall, just a series of bad decisions.
Prior to those two submission losses, Oliveira had fought to four straight low-volume decisions, winning the most recent two. He had lost three fights in a row leading up to the pair of decision wins, with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke against Gunnar Nelson beginning his skid. He’s now lost five of his last seven fights and hasn’t finished an opponent since September 2018 when he knocked out Carlo Pedersoli Jr. in the first round. That win should come with a disclaimer, as Pedersoli Jr. went 1-2 in the UFC and was knocked out in the first round in both of those losses.
Oliveira looks well past his prime and is incredibly prone to getting submitted and tapping without much resistance, but he’s still somewhat of a tricky opponent to prepare for. He uses his long reach and leg strikes to keep his opponents at bay and mixes in a lot of movement and feints to make him harder to hit. He’s only landed above 50 significant strikes in a fight twice in his career—once in 2016 and again in 2017. His opponents have also only landed above 50 significant strikes in fights against him twice—once in the same 2017 match and then again in 2019. In his six decisions, the strike counts for Oliveira/Opponent were 45-29, 40-23, 18-31, 48-65, 58-12, 11-23.
Now 22-10-1 as a pro, Oliveira has 12 wins by KO, five by submission and five decisions. He’s only been knocked out once, which came in the third round against Yancy Medeiros of their 2017 fight, however, he’s been submitted six times to go along with three decision losses.
Fight Prediction:
Price will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 76” reach.
While Price’s brawling style has failed him more often than not when it comes to winning recently, he still looks like a hungry fighter who leaves it all out there every time he steps inside the Octagon. That’s more than we can say about Oliveira, who seems to be coasting at this point in his career and probably taps when someone bumps into him in an elevator. While Price is not known for his grappling, he is a BJJ brown belt with three submission wins on his record, although just one since 2016. We could see a scenario where Price drops Oliveira and finishes him with a Rear-Naked Choke, but we’re not expecting Price to be landing many takedowns, as he’s only notched one in his last seven fights and owns a putrid 20% takedown accuracy. While Price generally lands a ton of striking volume (5.29 SSL/min & 5.87 SSA/min), Oliveira is on the other end of the spectrum as he checks in with just 2.86 SSL/min and 2.23 SSA/min. That could result in less strikes landed than we’re accustomed to in Price’s past fights. Still, we like Price to outland Oliveira and win this fight, it will just be a question of how. He’s got a good shot to knock him out, and a slight chance to land a submission, but it’s also possible Oliveira can implement a similar game plan on the feet to what Michel Pereira did and take this to a decision.
This is a little bit of a tricky spot for betting Price, so we don’t blame you if you decide to simply bet his moneyline, which opened at -140, but has been bet up since. We also like “Price R1 Win” at +380, “Price R2 Win” at +600, “Price Wins by Decision” at +400 and “Price Wins by Submission” at +1600.
DFS Implications:
This sets up as a pace up matchup for Oliveira and a pace down matchup for Price. The winners in Price’s 13 UFC fights, beginning with the most recent, have put up DK/FD scores of: 91/109, 65/105 (Price’s score even in a draw), 108/149, 107/119, 105/118, 104/119, 131/124, 94/91, 102/131, 105/132, 104/118, 89/101 and 105/120. Even if we include the draw, that’s good for an average of 101 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel. So essentially in every Niko Price fight the winner puts up a solid score, especially on FanDuel.
Price is a high-volume striker with 13 of his 14 career wins coming in the first two rounds. His brawling fighting style lends itself more towards knockouts than submissions so this isn’t an ideal spot to land a finish, as Oliveira has only been knocked out once in his career but has been submitted six times. With that said, Price is a BJJ brown belt and does have three submission wins on his record, so he’s certainly capable of choking Oliveira out given the right circumstances. Considering Price only has one win in his last five fights, his ownership should come in a little lower than in past fights, which adds to his tournament appeal. Oliveira has historically made for low-volume matches and absorbs the 5th fewest average number of significant strikes at just 2.23/min, making it hard for anyone to score well in a decision. So Price will need a finish to score well, but he’s certainly capable of landing one against the aging Oliveira who’s now been submitted in the first round in each of his last two fights and has lost 5 of his last 7 matches. The odds imply Price has a 64% chance to win, a 39% chance to get a finish and a 17% chance it comes in R1.
Oliveira is a low-volume striker who’s failed to land a takedown in his last three fights and generally struggles to score well in DFS. He has just one score above 98 DraftKings points in his last 10 fights, and only scored 59 and 62 DraftKings points in his last two decision wins. His one big score came in a 119 point performance from a 2018 R1 KO against Carlo Pedersoli Jr., who notably struggled in the UFC, going 1-2 before getting released in 2019 following back-to-back R1 KO losses. Even at his cheap price tag and in a pace up matchup, it’s hard to see Oliveira being useful without a finish and it’s now been over three years since his last early win. Working in his favor, Price has been finished in four of his five career losses and boosts the scoring across the board in every fight he’s part of. So when you combine that with the fact that Oliveira should go low owned in tournaments, it makes sense to sprinkle in a little exposure and hope for a finish. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
One final note, both of these guys are bad about extending their fingers and poking opponents in the eye, so while it remains very unlikely, a point deduction resulting in a draw or even a doctor stoppage No Contest is slightly more likely than normal here—albeit still very unlikely.
Fight #2
Kevin Holland
13th UFC Fight (8-4)After winning five straight fights in 2020 with four KOs, Holland jumped into the deep end in 2021 against far tougher competition and proceeded to get dominated in the wrestling department for 10 straight rounds in back-to-back lopsided five-round decision losses. Brunson was able to take Holland down 6 times on 12 attempts with almost 17 minutes of control time, and then Vettori took Holland down 11 times on 17 attempts with over 20 minutes of control time. Holland had a few good moments on the feet in both of those five-round fights, but his poor takedown defense and inability to get up off his back have given opponents a clear blueprint on how to defeat him.
Since the pair of smothering losses, Holland has been training with former champion Johny Hendricks, who was a former NCAA DI wrestler and national champion. It’s been almost six months since Holland last fought, so it will be interesting to see how much he’s improved his wrestling, as that is clearly what he’s been focussing on. There had been some discussion about Holland potentially dropping down to 170 lb as he consistently comes in underweight at 185 lb, but he’s opted to stay at Middleweight. Holland has no problem competing on the feet at 185 lb as he’s a solid striker and extremely durable. However, if he continues to get ragdolled by his larger opponents it’s still possible he considers a drop in the future. Holland is notably a BJJ black belt and a second degree black belt in Kung Fu, but he doesn’t appear to be much of a submission threat and his only submission win in his last 13 fights was against John Phillips, who couldn’t be any more helpless on the mat.
Holland is now 21-7 as a pro with 12 wins by KO, five by submission and four decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted twice to go along with five decision losses. His first submission loss came in 2015 from a R1 Rear-Naked Choke in his sixth pro fight. His most recent submission loss was also a Rear-Naked Choke, this time against Brendan Allen in the second round of a 2019 match. Now he’ll face an opponent who has never knocked anyone out, but has accounted for 80% of his career wins with submissions so it will be a good measuring stick for how much if any improvement Holland has made to his grappling.
Kyle Daukaus
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Alternating wins and losses over his last four fights, Daukaus is coming off a decision loss to Phil Hawes. Daukaus has now gone the full 15 minutes in three straight fights after he submitted 8 of his first 9 pro opponents. He’s faced three straight grapplers since joining the UFC in Brendan Allen, Dustin Stoltzfus and Phil Hawes, but wasn’t taken down until his most recent fight against Hawes.
In his June 2020 UFC debut, Daukaus suffered his first career loss in an exhausting decision against a tough grappler in Brendan Allen. Both guys left everything out there in a hard fought match that left each of them bloodied and battered. Allen narrowly came out ahead in significant strikes 41-34, but Daukaus finished ahead on total strikes 92-79, takedowns 3-0 and control time 7:44-5:37. A large part of that was due to Daukaus controlling the back of Allen for nearly the entire third round, as Allen clearly won the first two rounds.
Daukaus bounced back from the loss when he defeated another DWCS alum in Dustin Stoltzfus in what was Stoltzfus’ UFC debut. Daukaus was able to control Stoltzfus for the majority of the match as he totaled nearly nine minutes of control time while winning the significant striking battle 64-32. He also landed two takedowns on seven attempts while defending all seven of Stoltzfus’ attempts. Daukaus did a good job of controlling the distance in the stand up game as he successfully took advantage of his reach advantage. With that said, Daukaus is still somewhat of an awkward striker but appears to be improving some.
Following that win, Daukaus most recently took on a powerful Phil Hawes and despite Hawes’ conditioning being somewhat of a question coming in, he was still able to control the action down the stretch as he finished the fight with a smothering third round where he controlled Daukaus for the final four and a half minutes of the fight. Hawes finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 66-28 and in total strikes 157-52. He also landed 2 of his 4 takedown attempts with over five and a half minutes of control time, while Daukaus went 0 for 7 on his attempts with a little over four minutes of control time. Daukaus had a moment in the second round where he hurt Hawes on the feet, but other than that he struggled to get much going and the judges scores reflected that as he lost a unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26 and 29-27).
In his three UFC fights, Daukaus has only landed 5 of his 19 takedown attempts (26%), but did go 2 for 5 on DWCS, which slightly boosts his official career average to 29%. The majority of his fights have been spent either in the clinch or on the mat with an average of 45.81% control time for him and 29.33% control time against him. So a ridiculous 75.14% of his UFC fight time has been spent with him either controlling his opponent or getting controlled. Unsurprisingly that has driven down the significant striking totals in his fights as he’s averaged just 3.23 SSL/min and just 2.72 SSA/min.
Daukaus is now 10-2 as a pro, with eight submission victories and two decision wins. Both of his losses have come by decision since he joined the UFC. Three of his eight submission wins occurred in the first round, four ended in R2 and one came in the third. All of those submissions ended with either Rear-Naked Chokes (3) or Brabo Chokes (5). Two of his three first round wins came in his first two pro fights against fighters who entered with records of 0-1 and 2-3, and since then he’s trended more towards finishing opponents in R2.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Holland will have a sizable 5” reach advantage.
Holland clearly has the advantage on the feet here, which will force Daukaus into a more grappling heavy approach. This will be Daukaus’ first UFC fight where he’s not going against another grappler, so there’s reason to think that he should outperform his 29% career takedown accuracy as he faces the 45% defense of Holland. The wildcard here is how much Holland’s takedown defense and defensive wrestling has improved over the last six months as he appears to have made that a focal point of his training. That makes this somewhat of a high variance spot with a wide range of outcomes. If Holland can keep the fight on the feet then we expect him to win the striking battle and either land a knockout or win a decision, but if Daukaus can consistently get the fight to the mat then he should easily be able to win with either a submission or in a decision. Holland has notably only been submitted once in his last 22 fights and Daukaus has never been knocked out, so there’s a good chance this one ends in a decision regardless of how the grappling exchanges go. But if it does end early, look for it to come from either a Holland knockout (most likely in R1 or R3) or a Daukaus Submission (most likely in R2).
The safest bet here is probably FGTD at -128, but we’re not overly excited about that line. Instead you should consider Daukaus’ decision line at +220. We also like taking some stabs at “Holland Wins by KO” ay +230, “Holland Wins by R1 KO” ay +650, “Holland Wins by R3 KO” ay +1400, “Daukaus Wins by Submission” at +700 and “Daukaus Wins by R2 Submission” at +2200.
DFS Implications:
Holland has been a fairly consistent DFS producer, but generally isn’t one to really score well in decisions. So you’re relying on him to get a knockout here to return value. In his three UFC decision wins, he put up DK/FD scores of just 84/79, 86/61 and 73/67 and this projects to be a pace down spot in terms of striking, where his primary focus will simply be staying upright. He should get the opportunity to defend numerous takedowns, but that’s still unlikely to be enough for him to return value even on FanDuel without a finish. On the brighter side of things we have seen him still score well with a later round finish. But working against him, Daukaus has never been finished in his career. From an ownership perspective, this does look like a decent buy-low opportunity on Holland as he goes against his third straight grappler after getting dominated by the first two. He’s now facing an easier opponent than in his previous two fights, but it still looks like a tough matchup to put up a big score. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 30% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.
At Daukaus’ cheaper price tag, a grappling-heavy decision win has the potential to still put up a usable score, especially on DraftKings. His lone UFC decision win was good for 91 DraftKings points and 96 points on FanDuel, but that FanDuel total was notably propped up by seven takedowns defended. We don’t expect Holland to shoot for many if any takedowns, which makes Daukaus more dependent on a finish on FanDuel. This will be the first time Daukaus isn’t going against another experienced grappler since joining the UFC, so it’s a good opportunity for him to finally showcase his ground game and submission skills that lead him to the UFC. It’s also possible that he’s simply a fraud who can only finish low-level talent, but we should learn a lot from this fight. The odds imply Daukaus has a 39% chance to win, a 17% chance of getting a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #1
Thiago Santos
22nd UFC Fight (13-8)Coming off a disappointing low-volume decision loss to Aleksandar Rakic, Santos has now lost three straight beginning with his title fight loss to Jon Jones where he blew out both of his knees. Santos and Rakic both approached that fight very cautiously and spent the majority of the match trading kicks from distance. It was surprising that Rakic didn’t even attempt a takedown until late in the third round considering he had just dominated Anthony Smith on the ground for three rounds and Santos was coming off a smothering loss to Teixeira where he spent most of the fight on his back. However, Santos was able to keep the fight standing and actually finished ahead in significant strikes 49-36 and 61-50 in total strikes. It seemed like one of those fights where so little happened it’s hard to even judge who won, but all three judges gave it to Rakic, including one judge giving him all three rounds, including the third where Santos finished ahead 23-7 in significant strikes and 28-12 in total strikes. But regardless of who the decision went to, the biggest takeaway was that both guys respected the power of the other so much that they never really attempted to take any risks. Santos only landed 3.27 SS/min in the fight, while Rakic landed an anemic 2.4/min. We did see Rakic accrue two and half minutes of control time against the fence, but the other 12 and half minutes all played out in open space.
Four months prior to the decision loss to Rakic, Santos returned from a 16 month hiatus to lose by a third round submission against Glover Teixeira. Santos was forced to sit on the sidelines for over a year following his July 2019 title fight against Jon Jones where Santos not only lost a split-decision, but also tore every ligament in his left knee. Despite suffering the devastating injury early in the fight, Santos was able to gut out a solid 25 minutes of output through sheer willpower and determination, so no one can question his toughness. He actually also suffered a partial tear in his right knee and ended up having to have surgery on both knees.
Upon Santos’ return to the Octagon following his knee surgeries, he was taken down four times on seven attempts by Teixeira and assaulted with violent ground and pound. While the significant striking was close in that match, with Teixeira leading just 46-40, the total strikes were far more lopsided at 148-81. Teixeira also accrued nine minutes of control time before ending the fight early in the third round. The fight actually started off well for Santos as he landed several heavy shots in the first round and was able to knockdown Teixeira. However, as Teixeira often does, he survived and was able to get Santos down just 90 seconds into the match after getting rocked. Teixeira was also quickly able to take the fight back to the ground soon after the second round started, and Santos’ takedown defense looked nonexistent. Glover nearly choked Santos out at the end of the second round but Santos was saved by the bell. Santos actually dropped Teixeira again at the start of the third round and was landing heavy strikes from top position. But again, 90 seconds into the round Teixeira dug deep and used his old man strength to push Santos off and reverse the position, while absorbing leather thumping punishment to his dome. Santos looked exhausted at that point and Teixeira was able to quickly take his back and submit him. For the record, Teixeira has a career 40% takedown accuracy and Santos has a career 66% takedown defense.
A black belt in Muay Thai, Santos won four in a row prior to the Jones fight, including a 2019 R3 KO of the current Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz. His last three wins all ended in KOs as have six of his last seven and 15 of his 21 career victories. He also has one submission win, but it came all the way back in 2011. His other five wins all ended in decisions, although he notably only has one decision victory since 2015. Six of his nine career losses have also come early, with three KOs and three submissions. He has, however, gone the distance in two of his last three fights. Also of note, he has a baby on the way with UFC fighter Yana Kunitskaya, so insert your narrative of choice, but an extra 50k buys a lot of diapers.
Santos fought at Middleweight (185 lb) until 2018, when he took on Eryk Anders at Light Heavyweight and has stayed at 205 lb since. He won his first three fights at 205 lb, all by KO (R3, R2, R3), but has since lost his last three with a pair of decisions and a third round submission. Now 37 years old, with two surgically repaired knees and coming off three straight losses, Santos is still an immensely powerful striker but it’s fair to wonder if he’s lost a step. One final thing we’ll mention, despite being known for his power, Santos’ last seven fights have all made it out of the first round, with six of those seeing the third round and one going 25 minutes. Now he’ll face an opponent who has only been out of the first round once in his last six fights.
Johnny Walker
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Walker started his pro career in 2013 and went 13-3 his first 16 fights with all of those ending early, including 12 in the first round (11-1). He then went on DWCS in 2018 and despite the fight going the distance, Walker still made it into the UFC. Both him and his opponent were completely gassed by the third round, in what was just Walker’s second career fight to make it to the third round and first to make it past the ten and a half minute mark.
Walker then made his UFC debut in 2018 against Khalil Rountree and won with a first round KO from a series of elbows in just under two minutes. He followed that up with a 15 second R1 KO of Justin Ledit with a spinning backfist, but came inches away from landing an illegal kick that could have cost him the fight had it landed. He kept the R1 KO streak alive with a 38 second knockout of Misha Cirkunov with a Flying Knee after defeating Ledet, but then finally faced some adversity for the first time since joining the UFC.
Corey Anderson knocked Walker out just over two minutes into the first round of a November 2019 match. After a minute of feeling each other out, Anderson was able to drop Walker with a combination of punches. Walker was able to hang on for a little bit as he returned to his feet but he was clearly badly hurt. The referee ended up stopping the fight on the feet soon after as Anderson continued to tee off on Walker. That was Walker’s fourth career loss, with all four coming in the first two rounds, including a 2014 R2 KO, a 2015 R2 Submission and a 2016 R1 KO. Walker had won nine in a row leading up to the loss to Anderson.
He then drew an incredibly tough matchup against Nikita Krylov, who had a massive grappling advantage and didn’t waste any time showing it as he immediately tied Walker up and relentlessly fought for the takedown until he secured it despite Walker’s best efforts to stave it off for a minute. Walker looked exhausted to start the second round and put up far less resistance to being taken down at that point. By round three his explosiveness had faded to rubber and he was no longer a threat to win the fight. Krylov was able to wear down Walker with relentless wrestling as he went on to win a smothering decision with three takedowns on eight attempts and over 11 minutes of control time. That was just the second time Walker has ever seen the judges and the first decision he’s lost.
After suffering back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, Walker most recently took on Ryan Spann in September 2020. Both guys came out throwing, but after a quick initial exchange Spann was able to ground Walker just 10 seconds into the fight. Walker was able to immediately return to his feet, but the next minute was spent with Spann pushing him up against the cage. The two finally broke midway through the round and Spann dropped Walker with a left hook. He then mounted him as he looked for the finish but Walker was able to reverse it and get back up. Amazingly, Spann briefly dropped him again, but Walker immediately returned to his feet. At that point Spann shot for a takedown, but as he did Walker landed a series of heavy elbows and hammer fists to the head of Spann to get the fight stopped. After getting taken down and knocked down twice in just half a round of action, Walker flipped the script and walked away with another first round KO. despite the protests of Spann’s corner that the blows were to the back of his head.
Walker is now 4-2 in the UFC with five of those fights ending in KOs (4-1), all in under three minutes, and two ending in a combined 53 seconds. Looking at his entire pro career, he is now 18-5 as a pro, with 15 wins by KO, two by submission and just one decision. His two submission wins were a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke and a 2017 R1 Guillotine. He nearly had another submission locked up on DWCS, but somehow wasn’t able to finish. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted once and lost one decision. Of his 21 pro fights to end early (17-4), only one has made it to the third round, which was a 2015 R3 KO win 28 seconds into the third round in Walker’s 5th pro fight. He’s also had three fights end in R2 (1-2), with a 2014 KO loss, a 2015 Submission loss, and a 2018 KO win. So 17 of his 23 pro fights have ended in the first round and he’s impressively won 15 of those.
Overall, Walker is a wild power puncher with a 5-8 minute gas tank. He hasn’t attempted a takedown in any of his six UFC fights, and only wants to go to the ground if it’s to do the worm as he celebrates a victory. He relies on his power and athleticism to win fights and looks extremely hittable with a pathetic 31% striking defense.
Fight Prediction:
Walker will have a 4” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
While Santos comes in on a three fight skid, we could easily be saying the same about Walker if it wasn’t for a crazy finish in his last fight after he looked to be in real trouble as he was both knocked down and taken down twice in the opening minutes before landing a finish via elbows as Spann attempted another takedown. Both of these guys are extremely dangerous with their striking and will mix in unconventional attacks, however Walker looks to gas out more quickly, while also starting off much faster. So if Santos can survive the first round he should be in a great spot to land a second or third round knockout as Walker has a one round gas tank in anything that amounts to more than a staring contest. He also clearly has the ability to drop Walker in the first, but it will come at a far greater risk. We saw Santos extremely tentative in his last outing, so it will be interesting to see how he starts here. His last seven fights have all made it out of R1, with six seeing the third round. On the other side of things, five of Walker’s last six have ended in under three minutes. Both guys are live to knock the other out in R1, but if it makes it past the five minute mark we like Santos get a R2 or R3 KO. One final note, Santos has failed to land a takedown in all eight of his UFC losses, but has landed at least one in his last four wins. We’ve seen Walker’s cardio get zapped by grapplers, so it would make a ton of sense for Santos to look for an early takedown, just note he only has a 38% career takedown accuracy.
Our favorite bets here are “Santos Wins by R2 KO” at +700, “Santos Wins by R3 KO” at +1700, “Walker Wins by R1 KO” at +500, “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +145 and “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +390.
DFS Implications:
Since moving up to Light Heavyweight in 2018, Santos has averaged 100 DraftKings points and 122 FanDuel points in his three wins with DK/FD totals of 81/102 (Early R3 KO), 119/136 (Early R2 KO) and 101/128 (Late R3 KO). He averaged 6.19 SSL/min in those three wins and 1.44 TDL/15 min. However, he’s since lost three fights in a row, where he averaged just 2.55 SSL/min and landed zero takedowns. Those losses did notably come against top level competition in Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic, but at 37 years old, two years removed from surgery in both knees and on a three fight skid you still have to wonder if Santos will ever turn it around at this point. He desperately needs a win here. While Santos has devastating power, his last seven fights have all made it out of the first round, with six of those making it to the third round. We don’t see this fight making it past the third round as Walker will be gassed by round two, so if Santos wins we expect it to come by KO in the first three rounds. So the big question you want to ask is what are the chances that Santos lands a finish in the first three rounds and doesn’t end up in the optimal lineup on each site?
His last first round finish scored 111 DraftKings points and 135 points on FanDuel and the only way he gets left out with that result is if he gets outscored by multiple other high priced fighters, which is always possible, but at that point it’s a very thin line. His last two second round KOs came early in the round, which generally makes for lower DFS scores, but Santos was still able to put up DK/FD totals of 119/136 and 129/140 as he landed two knockdowns in each of those along with decent striking volume. While it’s hard to count on landing two knockdowns in a given fight, Santos has done that three times in his career and Walker was notably knocked down twice in his last fight, which lasted under three minutes. Earlier in his career Santos scored 99/126 and 100/109 in second round knockout wins with just one combined knockdown, so if we look at those four wins as a whole he’s averaged 112 DraftKings points and 128 points on FanDuel in his last four R2 wins. If we look at his most recent two third round victories, he put up DK/FD totals of 81/102 and 101/128. So he’s unsurprisingly shown a significantly lower floor but still a decent ceiling, especially on FanDuel, in third round wins. However, the more respectable of those score sets came in a post R3 TKO against Eryk Anders in a best case scenario third round stoppage. Santos also notably tacked on four takedowns defended, which you can’t count on here as Walker has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC. So the chances of Santos returning value with a third round win are somewhat dicey, especially on DraftKings. It is possible that Walker gasses out and Santos absolutely dominates him in the third round racking up huge striking numbers before landing a finish, but who knows. So overall, Santos likely needs a finish in the first two rounds, with a small hope of returning value in the third. His floor and ceiling are both higher on FanDuel, and even a third round finish could be enough but it’s still not a sure thing. The odds imply Santos has a 58% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a first round finish, an 11% chance to get a second round finish and a 5% chance to get a third round finish. Those odds all seem a little low to us just based on the fact we don’t see it going past the third round, but take them for what they’re worth.
All four of Walker’s UFC wins have come in the first round, as have 15 of his 18 overall career victories. That doesn’t appear to be a fluke either as Walker sells out to win fights early and has a one round gas tank that maybe can get extended to two rounds in a staring contest but is unlikely to make it past that. His four wins have been good for DK/FD totals of 107/116, 127/114, 128/116 and 104/118. While he’s been a model of consistency on FanDuel, he has two spiked DraftKings scores resulting from the Quick Win bonus and he has seven career wins in 60 seconds or less. So he actually has a higher DraftKings ceiling compared to FanDuel, but it’s entirely reliant on landing quick finishes. Walker is a pretty straightforward R1 KO or bust play with a very slight chance he could land a second round finish if we see this fight start slow. The odds imply he has a 42% chance to win, a 33% chance to get a finish, a 13% chance to get a R1 finish and an 8% chance it comes in R2. It seems like the gap between his money line implied odds and the sum of his R1 and R2 chances should be closer if you ask us. At his discounted price tag, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups with a victory.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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