Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Enjoying The Sheet?
Buy Us a Beer!
Fighter Notes:
Gustavo Lopez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from getting ragdolled by Merab Dvalishvili for three rounds in his disappointing, short notice UFC debut, Lopez had been scheduled to fight Felipe Colares this week until Colares tested positive for COVID. Anthony Birchak stepped in on short notice just this past Tuesday to take his place.
Lopez got taken down 13 times on 18 attempts against the takedown machine, Merab Dvalishvili. That was a career high for Dvalishvili, topping his previous best of 12 in his prior fight.
Before getting his shot in the UFC, Lopez had three straight R1 victories—two by KO and one by a Shoulder Choke Submission. Ten of his 11 wins have come early with five KO’s and five submissions. Seven of those 10 finishes c
ame in R1. His lone decision win came in 2015. Three of his five losses came in decisions, but he has been knocked out twice—once in R1 of a 2018 fight against current UFC fighter Andre Ewell and the other time in R4 of a 2016 match against John Castaneda who recently made his UFC debut against Nathaniel Wood.
Anthony Birchak
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Taking his second crack at the UFC as he steps in on short notice, Birchak made his original UFC debut back in 2014. However, after going 2-2 he was released and forced to fight elsewhere. His first three UFC fights all ended in R1, starting with a Heel Hook submission loss in his introduction to the UFC. He bounced back with a R1 KO win before getting knocked out in R1 of his third UFC fight by former top prospect Tomas Almeida. He won his fourth UFC fight by decision, but it was not enough to get him a new contract.
Now dejected and forced to find a new home, he lost three straight decisions in Rizin, all in 2017. With that clearly not working, he moved onto Combate Americas where he made a big splash with a R1 KO. He then took a fight in the LFA where he notched another R1 win, this time by Rear-Naked Choke. He bounced back to Combate Americas where he continued his streak with his third straight R1 victory with another Rear-Naked Choke Submission. The three straight R1 wins were apparently enough to get him back on the UFC’s rader, and after a 13 month wait following his most recent win he got the call up.
Now 34 years old, 13 of Birchak’s 16 career wins have come early, with 5 KO’s and 8 submissions. Half of his six losses also came early, as he’s been KO’d once and submitted twice. One of the submissions came against a Heel Hook specialist in R1 of Birchak’s UFC debut. The other was a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission all the way back in 2011. Birchak hasn’t been finished early since the 2015 KO loss to Almeida.
His fights that have ended early have typically not made it to the second round. Nine of his 13 early wins have come in R1, three in R2 and just one in R3. And as mentioned earlier, all three of his early losses were in R1.
With a college wrestling background, Birchak is a BJJ black belt who has had success on the feet and the mat. He’ll have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage over Lopez.
We’ve seen some notable line movement on this fight. Birchak opened as a -155 favorite, briefly went as high as -175, before slowly creeping back down to a coin flip. As of Friday afternoon, these two are dead even according to the oddsmakers.
Both of these fighters are likely coming in with a chip on their shoulder and looking to prove something. It’s a tough one to pick a winner in, but we like it to end early and play an important role in DFS. We’ll give the slight edge to Lopez, but could definitely see it going either way.
One thing to note is that Lopez’s FanDuel price was set when he was a -145 favorite against Colares. DraftKings, however, waited to add him until Birchak was booked and priced Lopez as a slight dog at $8,000. So while Lopez is overpriced on FanDuel, he’s slightly underpriced on DraftKings.
Max Griffin
10th UFC Fight (3-6)Coming in on a two fight losing streak, Griffin has now lost four of his last five fights. After his first two UFC fights ended in KO’s (1-1), his last seven have now all gone to decisions. Griffin’s lone early win in the UFC came in a 2016 54 second R1 KO against Erick Montano, as part of a three fight losing streak for Montano, who was then bounced from the UFC.
Griffin has been a fruitless DFS play, having never topped 98 DraftKings points and only making it to 90 one other time. While he does have seven KO’s and two submission wins, the majority of those came early in his career.
However, his opponents generally haven’t scored great either, and the only person to finish Griffin early came in his UFC debut against Colby Covington—who knocked him out in R3. Griffin’s other seven career losses all ended in decisions.
Ramiz Brahimaj
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his long awaited UFC debut after getting pulled from the June 27th slate when his cornerman tested positive for COVID, Brahimaj is an exciting prospect with all eight of his wins coming by submission. He had been scheduled to go on the Contender Series in 2019, but a week before his match they discovered a tumor behind his eye. After having it successfully removed and going through an extensive recovery process, he now hasn’t fought in 20 months. He was at least able to compete in some grappling tournaments, so he’s been staying active however he can.
The only two losses of his career both ended in decisions. You could argue that it’s a little concerning that both of those losses came in his last four fights, but he did bounce back with another R1 submission in his last match.
It’s not an ideal matchup for Brahimaj as Griffin is a tough guy to finish and has never been submitted in his 11 year career. With that said, we don’t see much upside in playing Griffin, even if he does win. Brahimaj is no joke with his submission skills and we could easily see him being the first one to choke Griffin out. You’ll definitely want some exposure to Brahimaj, but it’s entirely possible this fight ends in a decision. We’re betting on the submission win for Brahimaj though.
Darren Elkins
23rd UFC Fight (14-8)Skidding into this fight on a four fight losing streak, the 36-year-old Elkins doesn’t have a win in almost three years. Three of his last four losses came in decisions with the other coming by way of R3 KO. Elkins is a true grinder and 13 of his last 14 fights have made it to R3 with 11 of those ending in decisions. His last fight to end in R1 was a 2013 KO loss. He did have a R1 KO win just before that for what it’s worth.
With a wrestling background, Elkins averages 2.43 takedowns/15 min. He maximized his wrestling in his only two usable DFS scores back in 2015 and 2016, as he landed seven takedowns in both fights to go along with 4 and 6 advances respectively. However, he’s only averaged 1.2 takedowns in his last five fights and only landed one takedown in his last two fights. Elkins hasn’t scored above 90 DraftKings points in his last eight fights.
He did notably land 121 significant strikes in a losing decision in his last match, which would have been good for 99 DraftKings points had the decision gone his way. In one of the bloodier UFC fights in recent memory, Elkins narrowly outstruck Landwehr 121-118 in significant strikes, but was almost entirely unsuccessful on takedowns going 1 for 13. Elkins only has a 33% takedown accuracy on his career, but that was bad even by his standards.
Elkins has been finished three times in R1 but those occurred in 2009, 2010 and 2013—twice by KO and once by Armbar. That 2010 R1 Armbar came in Elkins’ second UFC fight against Charles Oliveira, who now has 17 UFC submission wins, and remains the only time Elkin has been submitted in his 33 pro fights.
Eduardo Garagorri
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off his first career loss in a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke, Garagorri won his prior 13 fights with 10 ending early. He won his UFC debut in a lower scoring decision however, and never seemed like much of a threat to end the fight early.
While it looks impressive on paper that he has nine R1 wins in his 14 fights, including his six fights prior to joining the UFC, those came mostly against inexperienced opponents who entered with records of: 0-1, 0-0, 2-3, 7-15, 0-0, 8-0, 7-1, 0-0, 0-0. He’s yet to make much of an impact on the UFC level.
Whereas Landwehr was constantly pushing the action as he walked Elkins down for 15 minutes in their fight, Garagorri is a self described counter striker who is more likely to slow the pace down. We don’t see this fight turning into a high-volume brawl.
With an Elkins decision win the most likely outcome here, it’s unlikely that either fighter posts a usable DFS score. Elkins did show the ability to score well in decisions earlier in his career, so we’re not saying it’s impossible, but those days could be behind him. Elkins is the far more experienced fighter and has shown he’s an extremely tough guy to finish, limiting Garagorri’s upside. With that said, we’ve seen so few dogs win lately that it’s possible even a low scoring decision win for Garagorri could sneak him into optimal lineups if all the other dogs lose.
We don’t love either fighter in DFS, but Garagirru makes some sense as a punt play, especially on FanDuel where he’s relatively cheaper and can score off of takedowns defended and submission attempts.
Alexandr Romanov
1st UFC Fight (1-0)“King King” returns for a match that was originally scheduled for September 5th before De Lima tested positive for COVID. After that fight was canceled, Romanov was given a new opponent in Roque Martinez a week later. Romanov manhandled the comically mismatched Martinez for nine minutes before submitting him late in R2.
While the win was impressive, his opponent was far from it. Now 12-0 as a pro, it will be interesting to see how dominant Romanov looks against a step up in competition. We’re certainly not betting against him though.
Nine of Romanov’s 12 wins have come in R1, one in R2, and the other two ended in R3. It’s entirely possible he doesn’t even know there are judges. Five of his wins came by KO and the other seven were by submission. He’s more than happy to let you choose if you want him to pound your face into the mat or to choke you out.
"We won't need the judges for this one, they can go to lunch. This will be a very fun fight."
-Dana White on Romanov vs. De Lima
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Now seemingly recovered from COVID, De Lima is coming off a R1 KO victory thus continuing his pattern of alternating wins and losses over his last nine fights. The four losses over those nine fights were all by some form of submission choke. Only one of his 10 UFC fights made it to a decision, while seven ended in R1 and the other two in R2.
Following a 2017 loss to OSP, De Lima moved up from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight. In his three fights since, he’s 2-1 while slowly bulking up (253 lb in 2018, 255 lb in 2019, and 257 lb in 2020). His first Heavyweight win came against Adan Wieczorek in a decision. Wieczorek hasn’t fought again since that 2018 bout.
De Lima was then submitted in R2 by Arm-Triangle Choke in his next fight against 11 ft tall Stefan Struve. De Lima bounced back with his second win at Heavyweight in his most recent fight against suspect Ben Sosoli with a R1 KO.
De Lima sports a terrible 36% takedown defense and he may quickly find himself on the mat Saturday. We like Romanov to finish this fight early—most likely by some form of choke submission, but we’re not ruling out a KO either.
Giga Chikadze
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Fighting for the fourth time this year and second time in four weeks, Chikadzeand comes in on a six fight winning streak. His only loss in his last 12 fights was against Austin Springer in a late R3 submission on the Contender Series in 2018. Chikadze's only other career loss came in his pro debut in a 2015 decision.
All four of his UFC wins have now come by decision, after the first seven wins of his career all came early. However, here are the records of his opponents going into those fights: 0-0, 0-10, 0-13, 0-1, 0-0, 2-30, 0-1. Does he go out and punt children on the playground afterwards also? Five of those seven opponents never fought again and the other two combined to go 0-4 after. Definitely one of the more padded records you’ll see for a UFC fighter.
Chikadze is a pure kickboxer who throws violent leg strikes early and often. His one dimensional fighting style makes it hard for him to score well in DFS, barring an early KO, which we haven’t seen him do against any real competition. However, going against another scrub here the oddsmakers think Giga finally gets an early finish in the UFC.
Jamey Simmons
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on short notice, Simmons opened the week as a +360 dog and has since seen that number balloon all the way up to +535 by Friday afternoon.
Simmons is also coming off an October win, where he landed a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. His last four fights have all ended early, with him winning the last three—including two R1 KO’s. And seven of his career nine fights have not gone the distance. Both of his two career losses also came early, with a 2019 13 second R1 KO and a 2018 R1 Guillotine Choke Submission. Simmons only went pro in 2017 and has just nine fights on his record.
The king of padded records, Chikadze looks to put another notch in his counterfeit belt. With a massive -320 line move in his favor since Monday, the writing seems on the wall in this one. The real question is whether or not Chikadze can get the monkey off his back and finally tally an early win in the UFC. Vegas seems to think so, as his ITD line is sitting at -170 and his R1 win line is at +155. Compare that to Chikadze’s R1 win line in his last fight of +725. It’s pretty gross to pay up for Chikadze as the highest priced fighter on the slate, but he’s certainly one of the safest options.
Chikadze will have an absurd 7” height in advantage in this fight and honestly he probably ends it early. His gross DFS stat sheet could keep his DFS ownership from going completely insane, but it’s possible it tops 50%. Thankfully that will force people to make some decisions with the highest priced fighters as fitting in all of Chikadze, Barcelos, Romanov and Santos into DraftKings lineups isn’t possible.
Bevon Lewis
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After joining the UFC with a short lived 6-0 undefeated record, including two KO wins on the Contender Series, Lewis dropped his first two UFC fights, before winning a decision in his last fight. Seven of his nine career fights and all three of his UFC matches have made it to R3. He was knocked out in R3 of his UFC debut by Uriah Hall and then lost a decision to Darren Stewart in his second fight.
He bounced back with a decision win against a struggling Dequan Townsend, who took the fight on short notice. Lewis appeared to suffer some sort of leg injury early in the fight, but was able to push through it. Five of his nine pro fights have finished in decisions (4-1), while the other four ended with KO’s (3-1). His KO wins came against opponents with limited experience, but they were all undefeated, entering with records of 1-0, 3-0 and 4-0.
Bevin Lewis is a R1 KO or bust fighter with zero knockdowns, takedowns, reversals, advances, or submission attempts so far in the UFC. He has yet to even defend a takedown as none of his three opponents have attempted any—so his 100% takedown defense is a bit misleading. Lewis did himself attempt five takedowns against Stewart and three against Townsend, but failed to land any of them.
Only 36 of Lewis’ total 94 strikes landed against Townsend went down as significant (38%). There’s two ways to look at that. You could say that he doesn’t throw everything with a ton of power, or you could argue it was stingy scorekeeping, which would theoretically give him a higher ceiling than what appears on his DFS scores. In his previous two fights 68 of 77 (88%) and 31 of 45 (69%) strikes were counted as significant for what it’s worth. However, even if 100% of his strikes in his last fight were counted as significant, he still would have scored just 77 DraftKings points.
Trevin Giles
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to get back in the octagon following a health scare, Giles had been scheduled to fight Kevin Holland before infamously fainting just before the fight. He was taken to the hospital immediately and in a recent interview he scarily said his heart briefly stopped multiple times while he was under observation. Crazily, the UFC was still trying to get him to fight Holland the week after, but Giles declined.
The last time Giles fought was in a decision win over James Krause this past February. Krause took the fight on one day’s notice and fought up a weight class, after showing up at the event to corner Youssef Zalal. Krause actually came close to submitting Giles in the first round, but got beat up as the fight went on by the bigger man in Giles.
Prior to the win, Giles was submitted in R3 of each of his previous two fights by Gerald Meerschaert and Zak Cummings—both times by Guillotine Choke.
Going into those two losses Giles was a perfect 11-0 as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC. Impressively, 10 of those 11 wins came early with five KO’s and five submission wins. Four of those came in R1, but those were also all in his first six fights against opponents who entered with records of: 0-1, 4-8, 2-2, and 4-4. Those four opponents have combined to go 1-6 since losing to Giles and two of them never even fought again.
With his last four fights all making it to the third round, Giles hasn’t topped 90 DraftKings points since his massive 134 point UFC debut. While Giles was five for five on takedowns in his debut, he’s gone just one for one in his four fights since.
Giles made his UFC debut at 205 lb but has since dropped back down to 185 lb, where he had been previously been fighting. Following his second UFC win in 2017, Giles took a year and a half off from the UFC as he went through the police academy to become a member of the Houston P.D. He lost his first two fights back in 2019 following the layoff.
Close to a coin flip according to the oddsmakers, this fight could certainly go either way. However, assuming he actually makes it into the octagon this time, we like Giles to win this fight either by decision or with a mid-to-late round KO. If Lewis does end up winning, we think it comes by decision and will likely still make for a solid fade. He does however have a 3” height and 5” reach advantage over Giles.
While you get a slight discount playing Giles on DraftKings, both fighters are interestingly priced at $16 on FanDuel. Given that Lewis is the slight favorite, at least as we write this, Giles’ ownership will likely be lower. If you combine that with the fact that Lewis is 0 for 8 on takedowns in the UFC and Giles has a 73% takedown defense, you get some additional reasons to like Giles on FanDuel. His fainting episode before his last fight could also help to keep his ownership down some after burning so many people.
Xiaonan Yan
6th UFC Fight (5-0)A decade removed from her last defeat, Yan has been as consistent as it gets in the UFC. In five fights she has five unanimous decision wins. A pure striker, she typically relies on volume to score well in DFS. While she won’t look to engage in offensive grappling, we saw her land five of her six career takedowns in her last match as a defense to her opponent’s grappling attempts. Interestingly, 4 of Yan’s 5 UFC wins have come against struggling opponents, with the one exception being Angela Hill.
In her UFC debut, Yan was matched up against Kailin Curran, who came in on a three fight losing streak. Yan dominated the fight on the feet and Curran’s only defense was to look to take the fight to the ground, which she did with limited success going 2 for 6 on takedowns. Yan didn’t go for any takedowns of her own, but outlanded Curran 96-52 on significant strikes and won in an average scoring decision. Fighting in Shanghai, China, 90.5% of her strikes landed were scored as significant, while only 37% of Curran’s strikes scored as significant.
Her next fight was against Viviane Pereira who was coming off a loss, lost this fight in a decision, and then went on to lose her next fight. Neither fighter attempted a takedown in this match and Yan won a low scoring decision while winning the significant striking battle 71-44. Taking place in Kallang, Singapore, 100% of both women’s strikes landed were scored as significant.
Next up was Syuri Kondo, who was also coming off a loss, lost this fight in a decision, and then went on to lose her next fight. Again we saw no takedowns landed in this fight, but Yan did interestingly attempt one. Yan outstruck Kondo 150-86. The sheer volume allowed Yan to score 105 DraftKings points despite no other help in the scoring department. This fight took place in Beijing, China, and again 100% of both women’s strikes went down as significant.
Yan followed that up with a fight against Angela Hill. Hill was able to get Yan to the ground once in R1, but failed on her other two attempts. Yan landed her first UFC takedown in this fight on her only attempt, but it was really more of a defensive maneuver as Hill attempted to grapple. Yan outlanded Hill 94-71 on significant strikes en route to a decision that scored a not quite useful 85 points on DraftKings. This fight took place in Chicago, and 89.5% of Yan’s strikes went down as significant and 91% of Hill’s.
In her most recent fight, Yan went up against Karolina Kowalkiewicz who came in on a three fight losing streak. Kowalkiewicz went 0 for 1 on takedowns, but surprisingly Yan was 5 for 6. Most of those were defensive though as Kowalkiewicz instigated the grapple. Yan has little interest in actually wrestling on the mat. After throwing Kowalkiewicz down she was typically looking to get right back up. Kowalkiewicz suffered an eye injury in the first round that appeared to give her trouble throughout the fight. Yan outstruck Kowalkiewicz 93-38 in significant strikes in another decision win. This fight was in Auckland, New Zealand and curiously only 59% of Yan’s strikes went down as significant while 74.5% of Kowalkiewicz’s did. One possible explanation for the decreased percentage in significant strikes is the additional time spent on the ground, where it seems fewer strikes get counted as significant.
One of the reasons we examined the percentage of strikes that were counted as significant is that we’ve recently seen some creative scorekeeping with spiked scores in female fights, due to the number of strikes counted as significant. However, because such a high percentage of Yan’s strikes have already been scored as significant—with the exception coming in her last match—there’s nowhere to go but down in terms of DFS scoring. With that said, Yan is a solid striker who deserves to have the majority of her strikes be counted as significant. But as we continue to be reminded, striking classification can be an extremely fickle beast.
Claudia Gadelha
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Coming off a May split decision win over Angela Hill, Gadelha has now seen 10 of her last 11 fights end in decisions—including her last five. She does have seven career submission wins and two KO victories, but only one of those came in the UFC. She won six of her first seven pro fights with R1 submissions, but all of those were against opponents with little to no experience. Her only UFC fight not to end in a decision was a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission victory over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who has now lost six of her last eight fights. Gadelha has never been finished early as a pro in 22 fights.
A BJJ black belt, she certainly has the skillset to land submissions, we just haven’t seen it much in the UFC. She will clearly have the advantage on the ground in this fight though. Gadelha averages 3.13 takedowns/15min and would be wise to take this fight to the mat early and often. Her takedowns have tapered off a little lately so let’s dive deeper in that.
Gadelha Takedowns (Landed of Attempted) & Striking (Significant/Total Landed) Breakdown:
2014 R3 DEC Win vs. Lahdemaki
5 of 6 TD’s, 70/132 (53%) Atlantic City, NJ
2014 R3 DEC Loss vs. Jedrzejczyk
7 of 16 TD’s, 27/59 (46%) Phoenix, AZ
2015 R3 DEC Win vs. Aguilar
4 of 4 TD’s, 111/121 (92%) Rio De Janeiro
2016 R5 DEC Loss vs. Jedrzejczyk Rematch
4 of 13 TD’s, 63/101 (62%) Las Vegas, NV
2016 R3 DEC Win vs. Casey
6 of 6 TD’s, 34/43 (79%) Sao Paulo
2017 R1 SUB Win vs. Kowalkiewicz
1 of 2 TD’s, 8/8 (100%) Rio De Janeiro
2017 R3 DEC Loss vs. Andrade
0 of 7 TD’s, 42/47 (89%) Saitama, Japan
2018 R3 DEC Win vs. Esparza
4 of 5 TD’s, 26/78 (33%) Chicago, IL
2018 R3 DEC Loss vs. Ansaroff
2 of 10 TD’s, 49/85 (58%) Toronto, ON
2019 R3 DEC Win vs. Markos
0 of 1 TD’s, 40/41 (98%) Las Vegas, NV
2020 R3 DEC Win vs. Hill
1 of 4 TD’s, 84/92 (91%) Jacksonville, FL
Breaking it down further, let’s look at the stats in her UFC three round decisions (what we’re expecting on Saturday):
In her six R3 decision WINS Gadelha averaged:
60.83 SS Landed (4.06 SSL/Min), 46.5 SS Absorbed (3.10 SSA/Min), 3.33 TD’s Landed, 4.33 TD’s Attempted, 0.67 Sub. Attempts
In her three R3 decision LOSSES Gadelha averaged:
39.33 SS Landed (2.62 SSL/Min), 91.67 SS Absorbed (6.11 SSA/Min), 3 TD’s Landed, 11 TD’s Attempted, 1 Sub. Attempt
Gadelha’s high number of takedowns attempted, especially in losses, combined with her low success rate and Yan’s 70% takedown defense, present some additional scoring potential for Yan on FanDuel. Gadelha’s high number of significant strikes absorbed in losses also bodes well for Yan’s chances of scoring decently.
Of some concern, after losing to Ansaroff in 2018, Gadelha switched camps and came back to win a low volume, boring decision against Randa Markos. In her post fight interview Gadelha talked about transitioning from a brawler to an MMA fighter, fighting smarter and not getting tired. Overall, not super encouraging for her already limited DFS upside.
Gadelha showed she is susceptible to getting sidekicked in the face against Ansaroff, which is one of Yan’s favorite moves, but we still think this fight most likely ends in a decision. If it were to end early, we think the most likely reason would be because Gadelha submitted Yan. But we’ll take Yan in another decision in this one.
In terms of DFS scoring we think Yan likely lands in the 90-100 significant strike range, which most likely won’t be enough to get her there in a decision unless she tacks on some additional stats. We mentioned we like her better on FanDuel where she can score off takedowns defended, but she’ll still likely need the fighters priced around her to bust for her to make it into the optimal lineup. In a decision win, look for Yan to score 85-100 points on FanDuel and 75-85 points on DraftKings unless she can tack on a knockdown.
Brendan Allen
4th UFC Fight (3-0)UPDATE: THIS FIGHT IS OFF!
Earning his spot in the UFC with a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win on the Contender Series, the 24-year-old Allen comes into this fight on a seven fight winning streak with five of those coming early—including two R1 KO’s and three Rear-Naked Chokes (R1. R2 & R3).
No one has landed more than 34 significant strikes on Allen in a UFC fight and only his most recent match has made it to a third round. He impressively won his UFC debut, submitting Kevin Holland in R2. He followed that up with R1 KO against Tom Breese, before surprisingly getting taken to a decision by newcomer Kyle Daukaus in a gritty fight between two guys with very similar fighting styles.
Allen has never been KO'd and has just three career losses. The only person to finish him early was actually Trevin Giles, who submitted Allen in 2016 with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke in Allen’s third pro fight, when he was just 20 years old. Allen’s other two losses also came against current UFC fighters, both in five round decisions, against Eryk Anders and Anthony Hernandez in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
A BJJ black belt, only two of Allen’s 15 career wins required the judges to be involved. He has five wins by KO and eight submission wins—six by Rear-Naked Choke, one Triangle Choke and one Keylock Submission. Eight of those finishes came in R1, four in R2 and just one in R3.
Apparently the loss to Giles stuck with Allen, as after his win over Breese he called out Giles in the post fight interview and asked the UFC to make it happen. Instead the UFC scheduled him to fight Ian Heinisch on June 27th, however Heinisch withdrew from the fight due to injury and Daukaus stepped in.
With the Heinisch matchup now rescheduled, these two have had ample time to prepare for one another.
Ian Heinisch
6th UFC Fight (3-2)After fleeing the country and then serving hard time in both the Canary Islands and Rikers for drug trafficking, Heinisch got his life together and began training for MMA. He was a high school state champion wrestler so he already had some experience to build on. He went pro in 2015 and won his first eight fights—with five of his seven career decision wins and both of his submission wins (both by Scarf Hold Armlock) coming during that period.
His first loss was in 2017 in his ninth pro fight in what remains the only time he’s ever been finished early. It came at the hands of current UFC fighter Markus Perez by way of R1 Arm-Triangle Choke. Heinisch bounced back from the loss with three straight KO wins, with the third coming on the Contender Series and landing him a spot in the UFC.
Heinisch started off his UFC career with back to back decision wins before suffering two decision losses against Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov in 2019. After the second loss, Heinisch switched camps from Factory X in Colorado to Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand. He had already shown he enjoyed traveling abroad right?
Following the switch, Heinisch bounced back from the pair of losses with a 74 second R1 KO of Gerald Meerschaert. Despite starting with four decisions in the UFC, four of Heinisch’s last six wins have still come by KO—including three in R1 and one in R2. A powerful striker, he is always a threat on his feet. However, failing to score above 76 DraftKings points in his first four UFC fights, Heinisch has shown he lacks the volume and takedown numbers to score well without an early finish.
Realizing the danger he poses on his feet, his opponents have often looked to take him to the ground. Heinisch has shown a decent takedown defense and exceptional balance, but all of his opponents who have attempted to take him down have had at least some success.
Takedowns vs Heinisch:
vs. Ferreira 5 for 11
vs. Carlos 4 for 11
vs. Brunson 2 for 10
vs. Akhmedov 2 for 4
vs. Meerschaert 0 for 0
At the beginning of the week, Heinisch was actually a slight -115 favorite, which is why he’s $17 on FanDuel, while Allen is just $15. The line quickly flipped and DraftKings priced Allen as the favorite accordingly by the time their pricing was released. Allen jumps out as one of the best value plays on the slate on FanDuel, while Heinisch looks like a good value on DraftKings.
We like Allen to win this fight, but Heinisch has shown he’s a tough guy to finish. We still like Allen’s chances to get the finish here, but wouldn’t be surprised if it made it to the judges. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Heinisch pull out the win, especially given that Vegas has this as essentially a coinflip. If it does end up in a decision, Allen has shown he has the potential to score semi decently, while Heinisch would have a tough time putting up a usable score.
Raoni Barcelos
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Riding an eight fight winning streak, Barcelos is coming off a 2019 decision win over a skilled Said Nurmagomedov, who’s never been finished early and entered the fight 13-1. This was Barcelos’ first fight in his last five to make it to the judges. He won his previous four with three KO’s and a Rear-Naked Choke Submission.
Lately, he seems to wear on his opponents as fights go on and three of those recent four finishes came in R2 with the other occuring in R3. However, in his 10 career early wins, five came in R1, four came in R2 and just one came in R3. It’s worth noting that three of his R1 wins came in his first three fights, all in 2012, against a lower level of competition. The last time he finished anyone in R1 was in 2015 by KO. In 16 pro fights, his only loss came in a 2014 R2 Rear-Naked Choke.
Barcelos fought at 145 lb until 2018 when he moved down to 135 lb for his second UFC fight. A BJJ black belt with a wrestling background, Barcelos is a well rounded fighter who has solid striking, wrestling and submission skills. He’s logged at least two takedowns in three of his four UFC fights.
"Barcelos is definitely top 15 material" and Taha "might be an even bigger puncher than Barcelos."
-Dana White on Barcelos vs. Taha
Khalid Taha
4th UFC Fight (1-1, NC)Fresh off a 1-year suspension, Taha submitted Bruno Silva in R3 of his last fight, however, the result was overturned to a “No Contest” for a failed drug test after Taha tested positive for furosemide, which is a banned diuretic. Ironically, Taha still missed weight for that fight, coming in one pound over the limit. Apparently he’s kind of a terrible cheater.
Taha made his UFC debut in 2018 against Nad Narimani, who was able to take Taha down six times in 11 attempts. Taha went on to lose a decision before bouncing back with a 25 second R1 KO in his second UFC fight.
As a big 135 pounder, coming off a year long suspension for a banned diuretic, and having missed weight in his last fight, it will be important to pay extra attention to Taha at weigh-ins. UPDATE: Taha made weight with no issues.
Taha looks like he might be the more powerful fighter, but Barcelos seems to have him beat everywhere else. We like the diverse skill set of Barcelos to prevail in this one. If things get dicey on the feet, Barcelos should be able to get this fight to the ground. While Taha has never been KO’d, he did lose by submission in 2017. We see that as being the more likely outcome for this fight to end early. We’ll say Barcelos chokes Taha out in the second half of this fight. The Barcelos R2 and R3 submission lines are definitely interesting.
Barcelos has at least one advance in all four of his UFC fights and at least three in all but one of the four. When you combine that with his relatively cheaper price on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, he makes for a better DraftKings play. He does go for a decent number of submissions, which could help his FanDuel scoring, but don’t look for him to score much if any on takedowns defended as Taha is 0 for 1 on takedowns in the UFC.
On the other side of things, FanDuel priced Taha as the second cheapest fighter on the slate at just $8, so he makes for an interesting punt play. He notably defended 9 of Silva’s 11 takedown attempts in his last fight, and 5 of Narimani’s 11 attempts in his UFC debut.
Tanner Boser
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off consecutive KO victories, Boser is attempting to erase his reputation as a boring decision fighter. He’s now 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming in a decision. He’s only been finished early once in 25 pro fights, which came in a 2015 six second R1 KO, well before joining the UFC. He’s won seven of his last 10 fights with four of those seven coming by KO (one in R1, two in R2, & one in R4).
As an undersized Heavyweight, he relies on his speed to best his typically larger and slower opponents. He’s still a KO or bust fighter as he doesn’t go for takedowns and even when he gets close to landing 100 significant strikes, like he did in his debut, it’s not enough to score well in a decision. Now he goes against a tough opponent to finish in Andrei Arlovski.
Andrei Arlovski
18th UFC Fight (8-9, NC)Stepping in at 41 years old, Arlovski is coming off just his second win in over 2 and a half years—both of those ended in decisions. In fact, now 9 of his last 10 fights have ended in decisions as have his last five wins. Only Rozenstruik was able to finish him during that period. Arlovski’s last early victory was a 2015 R1 KO—he’s had 15 fights since then.
He did go through a period from 2016-2017 where he was finished early four straight times, but those fights were against Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem, Josh Barnett, and Francis Ngannou. While it’s possible Boser surprises us and gets the finish, we think it’s more likely this one ends in a decision win for Boser.
Thiago Santos
20th UFC Fight (13-6)This fight was originally scheduled for September 12th but then Teixeira tested positive for COVID. It was rescheduled for October 3rd but then Santos tested positive for COVID. Now scheduled for the third time in two months with both guys coming off COVID, it appears it will finally happen.
A black belt in Muay Thai, Santos is coming off a July 2019 five round split decision loss to Jon Jones, where Santos not only lost, but also tore every ligament in his left knee. Despite suffering the devastating injury early in the fight, Santos was able to gut out a solid 25 minutes of output through sheer toughness.
Now seemingly recovered and coming off a 16 month layoff, it will be interesting to see if Santos looks like his old self or comes in a little more tentative with his leg strikes.
Prior to the Jones fight, Santos won four in a row with the last three coming by KO—including a R3 KO over Jan Blachowicz. The fourth win was a decision against Kevin Holland. He’s also won 8 of his last 10 fights with all but two of those ending early (all by KO). Santos does have one submission win on his record, a R3 Rear-Naked Choke, but it came all the way back in 2011.
Not a big fan of leaving things up to the judges, 75% of Santos’ fights have ended early, including 16 of his 21 career wins and 5 of his 7 losses. A notorious power puncher, he has 15 wins by KO including seven in R1. He’as also been KO’d himself three times and submitted twice, all five of those early losses came in R1.
Santos fought at Middleweight (185 lb) until the 2018 Eryk Anders fight when he moved up to Light Heavyweight. He’s 3-1 since the switch.
Glover Teixeira
20th UFC Fight (14-5)Teixeira is coming off a brutal R5 KO over Anthony Smith, in a fight that was allowed to go on for seemingly way too long and where Teixeira literally knocked Smith’s teeth out. Teixeira started a little slow in the fight but turned it on late in R2 and really started doing damage in R3.
Teixeira has never been submitted and has only been knocked out three times in his 38 pro fights—most recently by Alexander Gustafsson in R5 of their 2017 fight. He was also abruptly ended by Anthony “Rumble” Johnson 13 seconds into their 2016 bout. His only other KO loss came all the way back in 2002 in a R2 loss in his first pro fight. His other four losses all came by decision. Teixeira has won 9 of his last 12 fights with seven of those nine wins coming early (4 KO’s & 3 Submissions).
This should be a good fight and we think both guys have the ability to get it done. Look for Teixeira to test the rebuilt lead leg of Santos early. There’s always some concern with a fighter coming off a devastating knee injury, especially when they’re in their upper 30’s.
We’re leaning towards Santos getting the win but this isn’t really a Main Event that we’re looking to take a strong stand on. It’s interesting that FanDuel decided to price down the Main Event underdog for the first time, so that clearly presents some value in Teixeira.
As we saw with Reyes, fighters who come close to defeating Jon Jones are favored by the betting public in their next fight. Obviously that didn’t work out so well for Reyes. So it’s possible the line is a little too wide here. With that said, Teixeirais now 41 years old and you have to think he’ll start slowing down at some point. Beating up on an undersized Anthony Smith is one thing, but this should prove to be more of a test. We’ll say Santos knocks him out somewhere in the middle rounds, but we’re not super confident in that.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma #thesheet