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Fight Day Scratches:
Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Azamat Murzakanov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Murzakanov had originally been scheduled to make his debut at Light Heavyweight against Marcin Prachnio in November 2021, but Prachnio withdrew. Then he was booked against Philipe Lins in December 2021, but Lins withdrew. Then he agreed to move up to Heavyweight to take on Jared Vanderaa, who stepped in for Lins, but Vanderaa wasn’t medically cleared and the fight was canceled. Now he’ll finally step inside the Octagon back down at Light Heavyweight against Nchukwi after dealing with all of the previous opponent changes.
Murzakanov fought in an open weight tournament back in 2019 under the Brave promotion, where he weighed in at 229 lb and defeated a 253 lb Heavyweight and also an opponent who weighed in at 212 lb but had most recently competed at Middleweight in the same night. While Murzakanov was able to knock out the smaller opponent, he won a two round decision over his Heavyweight opponent.
After nearly two years off following that pair of wins, Murzakanov went on DWCS in August 2021 and landed another knockout three minutes into the first round. Not a whole lot happened in that fight leading up to the finish, as Murzakanov led in striking 9-4 and missed on his only takedown attempt. Murzakanov continued to look light on his feet and dangerous with his hands working out of the southpaw stance. He ended up dropping his opponent with a stiff right hand and the fight was quickly stopped.
Murzakanov had originally been scheduled to make his UFC debut all the way back in 2017 but withdrew from the fight citing an injury and was then hit with a 2-year USADA doping suspension. Since his return from the suspension, he’s only fought three fights and two of those fights occurred on the same night. So he’s only competed on two different days in almost the last five years and has only fought once since November 2019 with just three minutes of cage time in that fight.
Entering the UFC with a perfect 10-0 record, Murzakanov has eight first round finishes, with seven KOs and one submission. He also has a pair of two-round decision wins, but has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes and has only been past the 3:37 mark twice. In case you’re curious, his most recent two-round decision is incorrectly listed as being a three-round fight on multiple different MMA stat sites. Anyways, considering he’s never seen the third round, we have no idea what his cardio will look like later in fights.
While this will be the first time Murzakanov has competed in the UFC, he has a 50 second R1 KO win over UFC fighter Andre Muniz who has since dropped down to 185 lb. Murzakanov also has a two-round decision win over former UFC fighter Guto Inocente, who went 0-2 with the organization.
Tafon Nchukwi
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After moving down to 185 lb for his first two UFC fights, Nchukwi moved back up to 205 lb in his most recent match and won a lopsided 30-27 decision over Mike Rodriguez. Nchukwi controlled all aspects of the fight, as he led in significant strikes 116-49, total strikes 145-59, takedowns 3-0, and control time 4:45-0:02. Rodriguez was unable to do anything with his massive reach advantage and Nchukwi dictated the pace throughout the fight. That was Nchukwi’s third straight decision, after his first four pro fights all ended in knockout victories in the first two rounds.
Nchukwi suffered his first and only career loss in his second most recent fight, where Nchukwi was outlanded by Junyong Park 71-58 in significant strikes and 79-64 in total strikes. Park went 2 for 5 on takedowns with nearly four minutes of control time, while Nchukwi went 1 for 2 on his attempts. Park dominated the final three minutes of the third round on the ground and nearly got a finish. Showing just how completely insane UFC judging is, the scores came in 30-25, 29-26 and 28-28. So while one judge ruled it as one of the more dominating decisions you can have another scored it as a draw. Following that loss, Nchukwi smartly decided it was time to move back up to 205 lb. The cut down to 185 lb appeared to be a brutal one for him and he actually started his career all the way up at Heavyweight.
After knocking out his first two pro opponents at Heavyweight, Nchukwi competed in a 225 lb Catchweight fight against William Knight and landed another first round TKO. Then he dropped down to 205 lb when he went on DWCS in 2020 in what was just his fourth pro fight and landed a violent knockout in the second round. That’s when he made the move down to 185 lb for his UFC debut.
In his December 2020 UFC debut, Nchukwi showed the ability to go three full rounds for the first time, although that’s now becoming a regular occurance. He landed a solid amount of volume in that fight, as he outlanded Jamie Pickett 120-40 in significant strikes and 159-40 in total strikes. Nchukwi went 0 for 2 on takedowns, while defending three of Pickett’s four attempts. Nchukwi throws dangerous head kicks, oftentimes at the ends of combinations. He caught Pickett with one midway through the third round and followed it up with a knee to the body that dropped Pickett. The fight looked close to being stopped, but Nchukwi was unable to finish Pickett on the ground and it went to a decision shortly thereafter.
Nchukwi has a background in Muay Thai, where he went 13-1, as well as winning a kickboxing world championship before switching to MMA. Since making the switch, he’s 6-1 in MMA, with four knockouts in the first two rounds and two decision wins. His only career loss also went the distance and he’s never been finished.
Fight Prediction:
Nchukwi will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage. He’s also 8 years younger than the 35-year-old Murzakanov.
Both of these two are dangerous strikers, but Murzakanov will hold the wrestling advantage. He’ll also have the speed advantage on the feet, and overall looks like the more dangerous fighter. The biggest concern with Murzakanov has been his inactivity, with just once fight since 2019 and only three since 2017. If his timing is off it’s entirely possible that Nchukwi could catch him with a clean head kick and turn his lights out, but we like the speed and wrestling advantages of Murzakanov to prevail here. Neither one of these two have ever been finished in their careers, but this looks like Nchukwi’s toughest test to date and there’s a really good chance he suffers his first early loss in this one. Murzakanov has the ability to finish him on the feet or the mat and we’ll say he gets it done early here.
Our favorite bet here is “Murzakanov ITD” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
With Murzakanov making his UFC debut after having fought just once since 2019, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding him. With that said, he comes in with a perfect 10-0 record that includes eight first round finishes and he looks extremely dangerous. He’ll also mix in wrestling at times, which is encouraging for his DFS scoring potential. Working against him, Nchukwi has never been finished and is built like a tank. However, he’s also never faced anyone as dangerous as Murzakanov, so we wouldn’t get too hung up on that stat. Nevertheless, when you put two fighters with one combined career loss and zero early defeats inside of the Octagon, you can’t just assume we’ll see a finish. It’s always possible this turns into more of a staring contest with neither guys wanting to leave themself exposed to getting hit by the other’s power. That’s not how we expect it to go, but it’s one potential scenario. More likely, we’ll see a calculated striking battle with each guy looking to nuke the other with carefulyl selected shots and Murzakanov potentially mixing in some wrestling, as we’ve seen Nchukwi get beat up on the mat in the past. Overall this is a high variance spot, and Murzakanov has an unreliable floor, but a solid ceiling. Keep in mind, he’s never landed a finish beyond the first round, but 8 of his 10 career fights have ended in first round victories. The odds imply Murzakanov has a 63% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish and an 18% chance it occurs in the first round.
Nchukwi has shown the ability to score well even in decisions through a combination of striking volume, takedowns, and control time. In his two UFC decision wins, he put up solid DraftKings scores of 106 and 101, landing 116 or more significant strikes in each of those. This looks like a tougher matchup for him, but he will be going against a guy making his UFC debut who has not been very active in recent years. So if Murzakanov underwhelms, then Nchukwi has the potential to pull off the upset and return value even if he doesn’t get a finish. That’s not what we’re expecting to see, but this fight has a wide range of potential outcomes. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance to end it in R1.
Fight #13
Kris Moutinho
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Moutinho made his short notice UFC debut against Sean O'Malley in July 2021 and proceeded to absorb the second highest number of significant strikes (230) in a three round fight in the history of the UFC. That’s just eight behind the 238 that Donald Cerrone absorbed against Nate Diaz back in 2011, and if Herb Dean hadn’t stopped the Moutinho fight with 27 seconds remaining we could have seen the record broken.
Moutinho pushed forward like a radioactive zombie for the entire match, almost as if he was tethered to O'Malley’s hip as O'Malley threw strikes off his back foot as he retreated for the entire match. Moutinho finished with 70 landed significant strikes of his own, but that was less than a third of the 230 landed by O'Malley. No takedowns were attempted in the fight. Moutinho was mostly able to absorb everything O’Malley threw at him, but he did get dropped at the end of round one. Herb Dean curiously stopped the fight with just 27 seconds remaining on the clock, despite Moutinho remaining on his feet and continuing to engage up until the moment Dean stepped in. Sure he had accumulated a ton of damage throughout the fight, but the timing of the stoppage seemed arbitrary as he didn’t get knocked down or even wobbled at that point and they should have let the final 30 seconds play out. Because O’Malley was retreating the entire fight, he wasn’t putting a ton behind most of his strikes and was content with peppering Moutinho up for the duration of the match. So Moutinho’s durability is likely being exaggerated and he’s notably been finished in all five of his career losses.
Just before making his debut, Moutinho landed a third round submission against a terrible Andrew Salas, who came into the fight with a 6-5 pro record and having lost four of his last five fights. Despite landing a ton of volume and Salas fighting with his hands down, Moutinho showed a lack of KO power as Salas was able to absorb everything coming his way. Moutinho finally went for a somewhat sloppy arm-triangle choke towards the end of the third round and Salas tapped without a ton of resistance.
Prior to that, Moutinho landed a second round TKO in October 2020 against an inexperienced opponent in Ashliek Ajim, who entered with just three pro fights to his name, albeit all early wins. Ajim took an early lead, landing a massive amount of strikes in the opening minutes including a dozen unchecked leg kicks and a barrage of punches that knocked Moutinho down at one point. However, Moutinho was able to show he had the better gas tank as Ajim gassed himself out in the first round. Moutinho was easily able to capitalize as he landed strikes along the cage and the fight was stopped on the feet midway through the second round.
Leading up to the pair of early wins, Moutinho was finished twice in 2019. The first of those two losses came against tough UFC fighter Tony Gravely, who was able to absolutely dominate Moutinho on the ground for close to four rounds before knocking him out on the mat in the fourth round. Moutinho’s only grappling defense was to go for Kimura and leg lock submissions, and Gravely completely had his way with him. Following that loss, Moutinho was knocked out in the second round by Johnny Campbell, who interestingly got the TKO stoppage by throwing elbows off his back to the top of Moutinho’s head as he had him in a triangle choke.
Moutinho is now 5-5 in his last 10 fights with three of those wins and all five of the losses ending early. His most recent three losses all came by KO, while his previous two defeats were both by R1 guillotine choke. He’s 9-5 as a pro, with three wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. He doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling and he likes to protect his hands with his face when it comes to his striking defense. He also looks very prone to being knocked down. While he doesn’t have a ton of power, he throws a good amount of volume and has decent cardio, so he’s able to maintain a high pace.
Guido Cannetti
8th UFC Fight (2-5)Cannetti recently lost a decision to short notice replacement Mana Martinez, who missed weight by 4 lb and was making his UFC debut a week after his coach died. Cannetti came out and won the first round as he fired off numerous heavy kicks as he generally likes to. However, Cannetti began to slow down after the first round and Martinez outlanded him over the final 10 minutes to win a split decision. The fight ended with Martinez ahead in significant strikes 79-66, in total strikes 88-68, and in takedowns 2-0.
Now 42 years old, Cannetti has fought just twice since 2018 and is on a three fight losing streak. He’s just 2-5 in the UFC with both wins ending in decisions and four of the five losses coming early. He was submitted in three of those losses and knocked out in the first round in another. He hasn’t finished an opponent since 2013, which was in his last match before joining the UFC.
With an 8-6 pro record, Cannetti has 15 years of pro experience, but just 14 fights over that time. Six of his wins have come early, with three KOs and three submissions, while he also has two decision victories. Five of his six pro losses have ended early, with four submissions and one R1 KO. All four of his submission losses occurred in the first two rounds, with three coming by rear-naked choke and one ending in a triangle choke. All seven of his pre-UFC fights notably ended in the first round (6-1).
Cannetti has a Muay Thai background, but averages just 3.20 SSL/min and is generally just looking to land big leg kicks or looping punches in the first round before he tires out. He’ll also mix in occasional takedowns, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2013.
Fight Prediction:
Moutinho will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 68” reach. Moutinho is also 13 years younger than the 42-year-old Cannetti.
This is a gross fight that doesn’t have much business being on a UFC card, but here we are. We get the zombie punching bag against the 42-year-old gas can. We expect Cannetti will find some success landing shots in the first round before he starts to slow down, but it’s still very unlikely he lands a knockout, as his last one was all the way back in 2012. He’ll predictably slow down after the first five to seven minutes, which should allow Moutinho to work his way back into the fight and either land a late finish or more likely win a decision. If Cannetti does take the first round, then it’s an interesting live betting opportunity on Moutinho going into round two. We expect Moutinho to win a decision as long as Cannetti doesn’t completely run out of gas before the clock expires.
Our favorite bet here is “Moutinho Wins & Over 1.5 Rounds” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
If significant strikes absorbed scored points in DFS then Moutinho would be a legend, unfortunately they don’t. While Moutinho gets a favorable matchup here against Guido Cannetti, who’s just 2-5 in the UFC with four of those losses coming early, we haven’t been impressed by Moutinho’s offense and he doesn’t have much in terms of power. His best attributes are his pressure and cardio, which could guide him to a late finish here if Cannetti completely gasses out, but will more likely help him to win a decision. We don’t expect Moutinho to do enough in this fight to really score well without a finish, so we’re not overly excited about his potential here, but his constant pressure should increase the pace compared to most of Cannetti’s fights. The odds imply Moutinho has a 59% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Moutinho absorbed an other-worldly 230 significant strikes in his short notice debut, which presents a ton of potential for his opponent—unless that opponent is 42-year-old Guido Cannetti who averages just 3.20 SSL/min and has a five minute gas tank. Cannetti has failed to top 73 DraftKings points in any of his seven UFC fights and it’s hard to ever get excited about clicking his name, even if he is going against the guy that just absorbed the second highest number of significant strikes in any three-round UFC fight ever. Cannetti is likely still reliant on landing a finish to score well, something he hasn’t done since 2013. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Dalcha Lungiambula
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Marc-Andre Barriault, Lungiambula has now gone 1-1 in a pair of decisions since dropping down from 205 lb to 185 lb. In his recent loss, Barriault finished ahead in significant strikes 118-85 and in total strikes 128-87, while Lungiambula went 2 for 5 on his takedown attempts but finished with just 32 seconds of control time. Barriault did not attempt any takedowns and had no problem standing and trading with Lungiambula for the duration of the fight.
In his first fight down at 185 lb, Lungiambula won a low-volume decision over Markus Perez, who was released from the roster following the loss. Lungiambula narrowly finished ahead 29-25 in significant strikes and 61-50 in total strikes, while landing one of his two takedown attempts and stuffing Perez’s only attempt. Lungiambula also led in control time 6:46-4:21 and went on to win a boring/unanimous 29-28 decision.
Lungiambula won his 2019 UFC debut against another debuting fighter in Dequan Townsend, who took the fight on just a few days notice after Lungiambula’s original opponent dropped out. Lungiambula knocked out Townsend 42 seconds into the third round, but only landed 32 significant strikes in the match.
His second UFC fight was far less successful. Lungiambula went up against a world-beater in Magomed Ankalaev, who dominated the fight before knocking Lungiambula out in the third round with a highlight reel finish. Lungiambula landed just six head-scratching strikes in the match, as he struggled to close the distance against an opponent who had a 7” height advantage. Despite the height difference, Lungiambula actually had a 1” reach advantage in that fight, but Ankalaev clearly had an advantage in the leg reach and was also able to control Lungiambula on the ground.
Now 11-3 as a pro, Lungiambula has five wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has one decision loss. He’s a Judo black belt and won both the Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight titles for the EFC organization back in 2017 and 2018. Despite trying to punch a hole through a brick wall every time he throws a punch, he’s seen the third round in five straight fights, with three of those going the distance, including a five-round split-decision win just before joining the UFC. Only one of his last 12 fights has ended in the first round, which was a 2017 KO against terrible UFC Light Heavyweight Alan Boudot. Nine of those last 12 fights have made it to round three, with six ending in decisions.
While Lungiambula has a 75% takedown defense, that’s based off just four attempts from two opponents, so the number should be taken with a grain of salt.
Cody Brundage
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a grappling-heavy decision loss in his short notice UFC debut, Brundage was defeated by another debuting wrestler in Nick Maximov, who is now 2-0 in the UFC with two smothering decision wins. Against Brundage, Maximov landed 4 of his 15 takedown attempts with over nine minutes of control time. Brundage missed on his only takedown attempt and finished with just under two minutes of control time. While Brundage actually finished ahead in significant strikes 28-14, Maximov led in total strikes 84-59 and went on to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Brundage notably didn’t have his coach, Mark Montoya, in his corner for that fight and instead James Krause stepped in to offer guidance. Despite the fact that he took that fight on just a few days’ notice, Brundage was still pushing for the win late and won the third round on all three judges’ scorecards.
Brundage originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in September 2020. However, in that fight Brundage suffered his first career loss at the hands of UFC fighter William Knight. Brundage got Knight face down on the mat very early in the match and was hammering him with ground and pound, however, Knight was able to survive and lock up Brundage’s hands to nearly force a stand up from the ref. As Brundage worked to free his hands, Knight was able to return to his feet. Brundage immediately shot for another takedown, but had his head too low and Knight landed half a dozen heavy elbows that quickly stopped the fight.
Following that loss, Brundage won a February 2021 LFA match with a R3 arm-triangle choke, which is how he finished his last two victories. He looked more willing to remain on his feet early in that fight before working in his takedowns late to get a submission finish.
A former college wrestler, Brundage is now 6-2 as a pro with three wins by KO, two by submission and one decision. The only time he’s been finished came in the 2020 R1 TKO against Knight, while his only decision loss came in his recent UFC debut. Four of his eight pro fights have ended in the first round (3-1), and his last three fights prior to joining the UFC all ended early. Brundage is married to former UFC fighter Amanda Bobby Brundage who went 2-4 with the organization before being released. Brundage trains at elevation out of Factory X, which was noticeable in his cardio in the third round of his debut as he continued to push late in the fight despite taking it on just a few days’ notice.
Overall, Brundage seems like a powerful wrestler, who’s still pretty raw on the feet and sometimes gets caught admiring his own handiwork after he lands a shot. He doesn’t appear to have the highest fight IQ, but he’s still relatively early in his career with just eight pro fights to his name. Brundage has competed anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb in the past, and while his DWCS match was at 205 lb, his last two fights have been down at 185 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Brundage will have a 4” height advantage, but Lungiambula will have a 4” reach advantage. Brundage is also 7 years younger than the 34-year-old Lungiambula.
Lungiambula is such a bizarre fighter. He’s jacked to the gills and tries to murder his opponents with every strike he throws, but he’s only knocked out one opponent since 2017 and that came in the third round of his UFC debut. Both of his UFC wins came against opponents who are no longer with the organization, so it’s hard to feel great about either of those. Lungiambula generally slows down later in fights, although his cardio looked a little better in his last match. This is an uncomfortable matchup to predict, as neither fighter is all that great. Lungiambula has the power to knock opponents out, but he’s so wild with his punches that he rarely ever connects. With that said, Brundages striking defense hasn’t looked great, so we could finally see Lungiambula connect with one of those bombs here. However, he’ll have to deal with the wrestling of Brundage first, and we expect Brunage to try and get this fight to the mat to avoid the barrage of haymakers being thrown by Lungiambula. If Brundage can get the fight to the ground before getting clipped with something, he should be able control the fight and potentially hunt for a submission. If Lungiambula again gasses out late, a third round finish would be even more likely for the fighter in Brundage who trains at elevation with Factory X. It’s far from a comfortable pick, but we’re taking Brundage to pull off the upset and either finish things with a late submission or grind out a decision. With that said, we won’t be surprised if Lungiambula knocks him out earlier in the fight.
Our favorite bet here is Brundage’s ML at +112.
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DFS Implications:
Lungiambula was able to score 108 DraftKings points in a R3 KO win in his UFC debut with the help of four takedowns and a ton of control time, but he scored just 65 points in his lone decision win and appears reliant on landing a finish to return value. He doesn’t land much striking volume at just 2.97 SSL/min and will have a tougher time boosting his score with grappling as he takes on a wrestler in Brundage. That would appear to leave Lungiambula reliant on landing a knockout and the last time he did that was in 2019, with his second most recent finish coming in 2017. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Brundage’s wrestling heavy fighting style makes him a more appealing DraftKing play as he has the potential to rack up a large amount of control time. He showed his strength when he was able to quickly take UFC fighter William Knight to the mat on DWCS in 2020, but Knight was able to return to his feet and land a R1 KO shortly after. Brundage should benefit from the fact that he trains at altitude out of Factory X in Colorado, so while Lungiambula has slowed down later in fights, Brundage should have the cardio advantage. With five of his six career wins coming early, Brundage also has finishing upside. So there are multiple ways he can score well here, and at his cheaper price tag he doesn't even need to put up a massive score to find his way into winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 47% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Miranda Maverick
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Mazo had been scheduled to fight Mandy Bohm here, but Bohm withdrew and Maverick was announced as the replacement on February 23rd on 17 days’ notice. That’s the second time in a row Maverick has stepped in as a replacement after she filled in for Maycee Barber on about a months’ notice in her last fight, which didn’t work out so well for her.
Desperate for a win here after losing two straight, Maverick got absolutely dominated on the mat by Erin Blanchfield for three rounds in her last fight. Maverick had no answer, as Blanchfield landed 7 of her 8 takedown attempts with 12 minutes of control time and led in significant strikes 46-21 and in total strikes 96-42. That’s the first time we’ve seen anyone dominate Maverick like that, and Blanchfield looks like a real bright prospect.
Prior to that, Maverick lost a close/questionable decision to Maycee Barber. That split-decision came down to how the judges scored the second round as all three judges awarded Maverick the first round and Barber the third. In that second round, Maverick outlanded Barber 15-13 in significant strikes and 28-15 in total strikes, while also landing her only takedown attempt with 81 seconds of control time and stuffing Barber’s lone takedown attempt. The first four minutes of the round seemed close, but Maverick landed a takedown in the final minute and took Barber’s back, which appeared to be enough to win her the round, although two of the judges disagreed. The fight ended with Maverick ahead in significant strikes 47-36 and total strikes 82-38, while landing her only takedown attempt and stuffing 5 of Barber’s 6 attempts.
Prior to the pair of losses, Maverick had been on a five fight winning streak including a pair of wins in her first two UFC fights. In her UFC debut she landed a R1 TKO due to a doctor stoppage and followed it up with a decision win over Gillian Robertson in her second UFC fight.
On her way to winning a unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) over Robertson, Maverick led in significant strikes 71-27 and in total strikes 131-32 while landing three takedowns on four attempts with nearly five minutes of control time. Robertson did land a pair of takedowns on four attempts with close to three and half minutes of control time and was able to control Maverick on the ground for the majority of the second round, but Maverick finished the round strong and then took over in round three. It did appear that Robertson had won the second round, but again two of the judges disagreed, so Maverick has seen questionable judging go both in her favor and against her, although it wouldn’t have mattered in the Robertson fight as Maverick clearly won rounds one and three.
Prior to the win over Robertson, Maverick was credited with a R1 TKO due to a doctor stoppage following the first round of her UFC debut. The win came against one-dimensional Armbar specialist Liana Jojua and it was somewhat surprising to see the first round play out entirely on the feet, but it made sense that Maverick wanted to keep the fight standing considering she had a huge advantage there against the one-dimensional Armbar specialist. Maverick busted open Jojua's nose from a heavy left elbow with just 30 seconds remaining in the round. Ironically, Maverick said before the fight that she was looking forward to going against another grappler after she had been paired with so many strikers in the past. Although looking back, maybe she meant she finally had someone she could easily beat up on the feet. With an insane pace, Maverick landed 49 significant strikes in five minutes of action and looked more powerful than she had in her previous fights.
Maverick is now 9-4 as a pro, with six of her wins coming early, including five submissions and one TKO. Her other three career wins all went the distance, as have all four of her career losses. Still just 24 years old, Maverick somehow started her pro career at 115 lb before moving up to 125 lb in her third pro fight. Even at 125 lb she looks big, so it’s sort of amazing she could ever make 115 lb, although she was only 19 at the time. Maverick has a well rounded game as she’s a solid striker and good wrestler, but we wouldn’t say she’s really exceptional at either right now.
Sabina Mazo
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Also looking to end a two fight skid, Mazo is coming off a third round submission loss to Mariya Agapova, who took an early lead in striking in a fight that played out entirely on the feet up until the finishing sequence. Mazo controlled the center of the Octagon for the majority of the fight, but Agapova was fine with that as she circled the cage and picked her apart from the outside. The fight ended a minute into the third round after Agapova dropped Mazo and then jumped on top for a lightning fast rear-naked choke. Agapova finished ahead 93-62 in significant strikes and 99-63 in total strikes in a fight that lasted just under 11 minutes.
Prior to suffering the first early loss of her career, Mazo took a fight up at 135 lb for the first and only time. It didn’t go her way, as she was dominated on the mat by Alexis Davis for the majority of the fight and went on to lose a decision. Davis was able to control Mazo on the ground for the majority of the first and third rounds as she finished with three takedowns and nearly nine minutes of control time. The second round stayed mostly on the feet. Mazo finished ahead in significant strikes 64-49, but Davis led in total strikes 128-71. The loss clearly showed a weakness in Mazo’s ground game and also highlighted the issue with being a kicker going against a grappler, as Davis consistently caught the kicks of Mazo and used them to take her to the mat.
Impressively, Mazo landed 108 or more significant strikes in each of her three wins leading up to her pair of recent losses. Two of those wins went the distance, while her last victory ended in a third round submission against Justine Kish, which is the only submission win of Mazo’s career.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Mazo has two wins by head kick KO, which both came very early in her career, six wins by decision and the one submission victory. Two of her three losses have gone the distance, while her lone early loss came in her last fight when she was submitted. Her last two wins both easily could have gone the other way, as she was losing on the score cards against Justine Kish before landing a submission with 63 seconds remaining in the fight. Just prior to that she won a split decision over JJ Aldrich.
Mazo’s most dangerous weapon is her head kick, but she’s generally reliant on outlanding her way to decision wins. While she is a BJJ brown belt, she doesn’t look like much of a grappling threat and has failed to land a takedown in 5 of her 6 UFC fights.
Fight Prediction:
Mazo will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
The only time Mazo has won a UFC fight where she’s been taken down even once was when she came back and submitted Justine Kish with a minute remaining after losing the first two rounds on two of the three judges’ score cards. We saw her get dominated on the mat by a 36-year-old Alexis Davis, although that match was up at 135 lb, opposed to 125 lb where all of Mazo’s other career fights have been. Mazo loves to throw a ton of kicks, which is a problem when your opponent is looking to take you to the mat. While Maverick got dominated on the ground in her last fight, we fully expect her to return the favor in this one. We like Maverick to control Mazo on the ground and either submit her or grind out a grappling-heavy decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Maverick Wins by Submission” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Maverick has scored pretty well in both of her UFC wins with DraftKings totals of 99 and 110, but didn’t come close to a decent score in either of her last two decision losses. This looks like a good bounce back spot for her as Mazo is an uptempo one-dimensional striker, which should both force Maverick to grapple more and increase the volume in the striking exchanges. With Maverick desperate for a win to break her two fight skid, this could be the perfect recipe for her to really go off. As the second most expensive fighter on the slate, and coming off back-to-back losses, we can’t imagine the field will be excited about playing her and this looks like a good opportunity to get a massive favorite, in a great matchup, at low ownership in tournaments. Six of Maverick’s nine career wins have come early, with five of those ending in submissions. Mazo was just submitted in her last fight, so there’s a solid chance Maverick can not only put on a dominating grappling performance, but also finish it with a submission. The odds imply Maverick has a 74% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Mazo’s high striking volume has allowed her to put up big DraftKings scores in two of her three UFC wins, scoring 108, 81, and 125 points in her three victories. At her dirt cheap price tag, even a decent scoring decision has the potential for her to serve as a value play. So while this looks like a really tough matchup for Mazo to succeed, if she can keep the fight standing, turn it into a pure striking battle, and pull off the upset, we would expect her to score well. Just keep in mind, we don’t expect her to be able to keep it standing or for her to pull off the upset, but hey, you never know. Mazo should be low owned after losing two straight, so she’ll also make for a solid low owned tournament play if she can somehow win. The odds imply she has a 26% chance to win, a 10% chance to get a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Kamuela Kirk
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Jackson had been scheduled to face Josh Culibao here, but Culibao withdrew and Kirk stepped in on January 28th, with plenty of time to prepare.
Coming off a decision win in his short notice UFC debut against Makwan Amirkhani, Kirk has now won three straight fights and five of his last six wins have come early, all in the first two rounds. His debut was a slower paced match with Kirk defending takedowns and looking for defensive submissions for most of the match. He finished ahead in significant strikes 28-20 and in total strikes 100-25. While Amirkhani was able to land five takedowns on nine attempts with just under seven minutes of control time, it was Kirk who finished the fight with three official submission attempts against the submission specialist in Amirkhani. Kirk never attempted a takedown of his own in the match. Kirk took that fight on less than two weeks’ notice after fighting in the LFA just three weeks earlier.
Kirk went up against UFC fighter Billy Quarantillo on DWCS in July 2019 and actually started off the fight great as he controlled Quarantillo on the ground for nearly the entire first round. However, he looked to be slowing down as the second round started, which in fairness it had been three and a half years since he’d been past the first round after he finished his previous three opponents in under five minutes, including Kevin Croom, who’s now in the UFC. Of note, Kirk is just 1-4 in fights that have made it past the second round and is coming off his first career decision win, although two of his previous three ended in split decision losses. Anyways back to the DWCS fight. In a tale of two rounds, Kirk had nothing to offer in the second round as Quarantillo had his way with him. Kirk narrowly survived the round, but when the third round started Quarantillo sprinted across the Octagon to resume where he had left off. Kirk clearly had nothing left and Quarantillo was able to land several heavy knees and punches before Herb Dean stopped the fight. Needless to say, Kirk was not awarded a UFC contract and was forced to return to the LFA.
In his next fight he took on Bruno Souza, who came into the fight 6-1 on a six fight winning streak and has since joined the UFC. Souza is a Karate style fighter who gave Kirk trouble closing the distance. After starting off with a grappling heavy game plan against Quarantillo, Kirk kept this one almost entirely on the feet and ended up paying for it as he lost a split decision in a fight where he should have had a major advantage on the ground. Kirk said he wanted to keep the fight standing up and to box his way to victory—maybe that had something to do with the fact that he gassed out midway through his previous fight after exclusively grappling early.
Following the pair of losses, Kirk took on Guilherme Santos, who had coincidentally also just lost to Bruno Souza just after Kirk did. Santos came in with an 8-3 record but having lost three of his last six fights and missed weight by a pound and a half for this match. Kirk was able to dominate Santos on the feet and finish him late in the first round with a flurry of strikes without attempting a single takedown.
In his second most recent fight, Kirk took on Daniel Swain, who came in with a 20-10 pro record but having lost two of his last four fights and fresh off a first round KO loss on DWCS against T.J. Laramie. This fight took place at 155 lb, opposed to 145 lb, where they both normally fight as it was booked on short notice. Kirk dominated the striking throughout the fight, but Swain came close to landing a couple of armbar attempts. Following the second round, the 30-year-old Swain said he “couldn’t do this anymore” and appeared to retire on the spot and the fight was stopped. Maybe losing on DWCS and then getting beat up for two rounds just destroyed his motivation to keep fighting.
While Kirk has a Jiu-Jitsu black belt to fall back on when fights go to the mat, he’s appeared to have fallen in love with his striking in recent years as he hasn’t really been looking for any takedowns in his last few fights. He’s now 12-4 as a pro and while he does have six first round submission wins on his record, four of those came in his first six pro fights and he only has two submissions in his last 10 matches and none since 2018. He also has five TKOs on his record, with three coming in the first round and two occurring in round two. He’s lost three of the four decisions he’s been to, but the only time he’s ever been finished came in his DWCS fight against Billy Quarantillo, when he completely gassed out. His cardio has looked improved since then, and Quarantillo’s pace wears most fighters out.
Damon Jackson
7th UFC Fight (2-2-1, NC)Jackson is coming off a decision win over Charles Rosa, who’s now lost three of his last four and four of his last six fights. Jackson was able to control Rosa for over 10 minutes in the fight as he landed 6 takedowns on 12 attempts. Rosa landed two takedowns of his own on three attempts with 78 seconds of control time. While Jackson led in significant strikes 41-34, Rosa led in total strikes 116-53. Rosa split Jackson open with an elbow early in round three in one of the more leaky cuts we’ve seen in a while. The doctor was brought in but they let the fight continue and Jackson went on to win a unanimous decision.
Just prior to that, Jackson was knocked out in the first round by up-and-coming contender Ilia Topuria and Jackson had no chance in that matchup. Topuria made short work of him as he dropped Jackson midway through the first round with a beautiful combination of strikes. That marked the third time Jackson has been knocked out in his career, with his only other career loss ending in a submission. He would have two submission losses, but a 2015 R1 submission defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for a banned diuretic.
Jackson originally joined the UFC in 2014 and did everything but win, notching a 0-1-1, NC record before getting kicked out following a 2016 draw. After getting dropped by the organization, Jackson fought 10 times outside of the UFC from 2016 to 2020, going 8-2 before getting called back up. His two losses over that period both came by KO, while the majority of his wins were by submission, including five rear-naked chokes.
Making his return to the UFC in September 2020, nearly five years after being released, Jackson pulled off the short notice upset in a comeback win against Mirsad Bektic. In a fight he was losing badly, Jackson landed a R3 guillotine to steal the victory and notch his first UFC win.
Only three of Jackson’s 25 pro fights have made it to the judges, while 11 have ended in R1. He has 14 submission wins and three KOs to go along with a pair of decision victories. Prior to his recent decision win, he had gone 11 straight fights without seeing the judges, with six of those ending in R1. His last three losses have all come by KO, while his first career loss came in a 2014 R2 submission in his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 1” height advantage, but Kirk will have a 4” reach advantage.
The public appears to have fallen in love with Jackson and after starting the week as a slight dog, he’s now the betting favorite in this fight. That seems off considering Kirk is the better striker and is also a solid grappler. The only real advantage we would give to Jackson would be cardio, so his best chance of winning will be to outlast Kirk and either look for a late submission or try to grind out a grappling-heavy decision. However, Kirk defeated a better grappler than Jackson in Makwan Amirkhani in his recent short notice UFC debut and showed that he’s up for the task of coming out ahead in a grappling match against a dangerous submission specialist. Jackson has been a liability on the feet, with three of his four career losses ending by KO/TKO, and Kirk has landed TKO wins in two of his last three fights. We like Kirk to get a finish, and while he’s capable of finishing things both on the mat or the feet, we like him to get a knockout in the first ten minutes here.
Our favorite bet here is “Kirk ITD” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
While simply winning his short notice UFC debut against Makwan Amirkhani was impressive, Kirk scored just 58 DraftKings points in the match. That’s actually very beneficial for us here, as that low score combined with the line flip should keep Kirk’s ownership very low in tournaments. This looks like a great spot for him to get a finish, as all four of Jackson’s pro losses have come early and he’s been knocked out in the first two rounds in his last three defeats. Prior to the recent decision win in his UFC debut, all 11 of Kirk’s pro wins had come early, and he knocked out two of his last three opponents in the first two rounds. So while we saw Kirk fade down the stretch in his 2019 DWCS fight and he’s just 1-3 in fights that go the distance, he’s got a great shot to land a finish at low ownership here and he’ll be a solid leverage play against the underpriced and overpopular Jackson. The odds imply Kirk has a 48% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance he gets it done in the first round.
Jackson is coming off a career best performance from a DFS perspective and has now seen the line flip in his favor making him a mispriced favorite. Those factors should drive his ownership up in all contest types. Prior to his recent dominating grappling performance over a terrible Charles Rosa where he scored 113 DraftKings points, Jackson had failed to top 58 DraftKings points in his first five UFC fights. He’s a one dimensional submission specialist going against a BJJ black belt in Kirk who’s never been submitted and just defeated a better submission specialist than Jackson in his short notice UFC debut. So it’s a bit puzzling that the line has moved in Jackson’s favor, and it just looks like the field is chasing Jackson’s last result. Jackson still has a decent ceiling on DraftKings if he can put on another dominant grappling performance, or on either site if he can land a finish, but we’re far more interested in playing Kirk in this fight. The odds imply Jackson has a 52% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #9
Javid Basharat
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a third round submission win on DWCS in Oct 2021, Basharat joins the organization with a perfect 11-0 record with all 11 wins coming early. He had never even been to the third round prior to his recent DWCS match, as his first 10 career wins all came in under 10 minutes, including eight in the first round.
In that recent win, Basharat controlled his opponent on the mat for the majority of the fight and finished with three takedowns on five attempts and 10 minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over 14 minutes. He nearly got a finish in the first round and opened his opponent up early, but then slowed down some in round two in terms of his output. He ultimately got the finish late in round three from a mounted guillotine choke, in a completely one sided dominating performance.
One thing to keep in mind with Basharat is that only three of his 11 career wins have come against opponents with winning records, although four more entered his fights with an even number of wins and losses. Basharat has a Taekwondo background, which is evident when you see him throw kicks, but he mixes in a combination of striking and grappling and likes to look for chokes on the mat. Five of his wins have come by KO, while six have ended in submissions.
Overall, Basharat offers a diverse skill set and certainly doesn’t lack confidence. He’s light on his feet and has good movement to avoid taking unnecessary damage and is dangerous both on the mat and feet.
Trevin Jones
4th UFC Fight (1-1, NC)Looking to bounce back from his first loss since 2018, Jones was submitted by UFC newcomer Saidyokub Kakhramonov in his last fight. The fight played out as a low-volume grappling match, with only 48 combined significant strikes landed, with Kakhramonov leading 36-12, but over 10 minutes of combined control time, with Jones leading 8:59-1:07. Jones landed just 1 of his 8 takedown attempts and spent extended periods of time pushing Kakhramonov up against the cage, while Kakhramonov landed 2 of his 7 attempts and also had four official submission attempts. Kakhramonov also finished ahead in total strikes 123-70. The fight appeared on its way to going the distance, but as Jones shot for a final takedown attempt in the closing minute of the fight Kakhramonov wrapped up a standing guillotine and choked him unconscious. In fairness to Jones, that was his fourth booked opponent in four weeks after Tony Kelley withdrew on July 24th, Ronnie Lawrence dropped out on July 31st during weigh-ins (after Jones had already cut and made weight), Mana Martinez withdrew from the August 21st card, and finally Kakhramonov stepped in to replace Martinez on short notice. So due to absolutely no fault of his own, Jones had to prepare for four different opponents and cut weight at multiple different points over a very short stretch. So the fact that Jones had sort of a generic game plan and faded down the stretch in that fight are both totally understandable.
After stepping into his UFC debut on just two days' notice following a 15 month layoff, Jones was nearly finished in the first round after absorbing a well placed body kick followed by a barrage of violent punches. However, Jones showed off his heart and toughness to stay in the fight and after narrowly hanging on for dear life, he bounced back in the second round as he dropped Timur Valiev with a clean right hand to the chin and finished it with ground and pound. That’s notably the only time Valiev has been finished in 21 pro fights. After emptying the chamber in the first round, Valiev finished ahead in significant strikes 66-26, while Jones went 1 for 2 on takedowns before getting the finish.
Jones then had the KO win stripped away from him when he tested positive for THC, so he stepped into his second UFC fight having to reprove himself once again as an underdog. He took on Mario Bautista, who came in 2-1 in the UFC and off a second round Flying Knee KO of Miles Johns in his previous fight. We saw a slower paced first round with Bautista leading in significant strikes 18-16 and in total strikes 40-28 as a third of the round was spent in the clinch with Jones going 0 for 3 on takedowns. Early in the second round Jones dropped Baustista with another powerful right hand that he does a great job of landing as his lead hand out of the Southpaw stance. He then jumped on top and quickly got the fight stopped with ground and pound.
That was Jones’ fourth straight early win and third straight second round finish after he landed a R2 submission in his last fight prior to joining the UFC and a first round submission before that. Jones is now 13-7 as a pro plus his No Contest, so he really should be 14-7. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice and has lost five decisions. Seven of his 13 official career wins have come early, with three KOs and four submissions. While his last five fights all ended early, his last four have all made it past the first round, with three ending in round two. Strangely, his last three and six of his last seven decisions have been split (3-3).
Fight Prediction:
Basharat will have a 2” height advantage, but Jones will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both of these guys are well rounded fighters who can compete in both striking and grappling, so it will be interesting to see how they each approach this fight. Basharat looks to have a more diverse striking arsenal, but Jones appears to have the power advantage in his hands. Jones really struggled to take his last opponent down, so it would be somewhat surprising to just see him continue to spam takedowns along the fence, especially after getting submitted as he looked for a takedown in that last fight and now going against another opponent with a solid guillotine choke. That will likely leave Jones reliant on landing another comeback knockout with his sneaky right hand, which isn’t what you want to rely on going into a fight. So while Jones is fully capable of landing a knockout, as he’s proven, we like Basharat to win this fight and a submission is the most likely way he gets it done.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 2.5 Rounds” at -132.
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DFS Implications:
Basharat is an interesting prospect who put on an absolutely dominating performance on DWCS in his last fight. He basically shut his opponent out in that match as he finished ahead in significant strikes 70-12, in total strikes 109-29, in takedowns 3-0, and in control time 10:01-0:02. Despite the fact that it was the first time he had ever seen the third round, he was still leading the dance down the stretch as he capped off the beatdown with a late mounted guillotine to get the finish in the final minute of round three. He showed the combination of striking and grappling that we’re looking for in DFS and his performance would have been good for 114 points on DraftKings and 115 points on FanDuel. Now 11-0 as a pro, Basharat has finished everyone they’ve put in front of him, including eight first round finishes and two in round two. He definitely hasn’t been facing the toughest competition, but the same can be said about most fighters making their first trip inside the Octagon. The fact that he’s making his debut does make this a higher variance spot, but if Basharat can get the win here there’s a great chance he puts up a big score. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Jones attempted to put on a grappling-heavy performance in his last outing, and while he amassed nine minutes of control time, he only landed one of his eight takedown attempts against a guy making his short notice UFC debut. So it’s hard to get excited about Jones’ grappling potential, even if it is theoretically there. Overall, he’s gone just 2 for 13 on takedown attempts in his three UFC fights. He has had success with finishing fights on the feet though, as he knocked both of his first two UFC opponents out in the second round. However, one of those was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for THC so the score doesn’t show up correctly on his DraftKings stat sheet. Otherwise his first two DraftKings scores would be listed as 98 and 94, which while still not amazing would be solid scores at his cheap price tag. A knockout is likely what he’s relying on to win this next fight, although the fact that he’s facing a UFC newcomer makes it a higher variance spot. Jones’ striking volume (2.22 SSL/min) and takedown accuracy (15%) have both been completely underwhelming. Therefore, it’s harder to see him scoring well in a decision, unless he suddenly puts on a dominating grappling performance, which in fairness, the effort has been there at times but the efficiency has not. The odds imply Jones has a 41% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Gillian Robertson
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Stepping into this fight on just 18 days' notice, Aldrich had been scheduled to face Ariane Lipski, but Lipski withdrew and Robertson was announced as the replacement on February 22nd.
Robertson is coming off a first round submission win over Priscila Cachoeira, who was able to fend off the first few takedown attempts from Robertson. However, once Robertson did finally get her down she was able to dominate her on the ground and work her way towards a last second submission as the first round ended. Cachoeira attempted multiple dirty eye-gouges as she tried to scratch and claw her way out of the submission, but her attempts were futile.
That was a big win for Robertson after she fought to three straight decisions leading up to that, losing the last two. Those two decision losses came against tough opposition in Miranda Maverick and Taila Santos, who both simply looked too powerful for Robertson. Prior to those decisions, her first seven UFC fights had all ended early (5-2). Her two UFC early losses came against Maycee Barber (pre-injury) and Mayra Bueno Silva, so she’s only lost against tough opponents. Six of her seven UFC wins have come early, with five submissions and one TKO via elbows. Two of those finishes ended in the first round, three ended in round two, and one finished in round three.
Looking at her entire pro career, she’s now 10-6, with one win by KO, seven submissions, and two decision victories. She’s been knocked out once (2019 R1 by Maycee Barber), submitted once (2018 R1 by Mayra Bueno Silva), and has lost four decisions. Her two pre-UFC decision losses also came against fighters who are now in the UFC, in Hannah Goldy in Robertson’s 2016 pro debut and Cynthia Calvillo in 2016.
Overall, Robertson is a solid technical grappler, but doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of striking and can be overpowered on the mat by stronger opponents. She’s shown the ability to make the most of her one-dimensional grappling skillset and has generally capitalized when put in favorable matchups.
JJ Aldrich
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Looking to keep her momentum going following a pair of decision wins in 2021, Aldrich has now gone the distance in 9 of her last 10 fights, with the one exception being a 2019 R2 TKO loss to Maycee Barber in Aldrich’s first UFC fight up at 125 lb after she started her career down at 115 lb. Since the loss to Barber, Aldrich has gone 3-1, with two of those ending in split-decisions (1-1).
Aldrich is coming off a win over short notice replacement Vanessa Demopoulos, who was making her UFC debut up a weight class. Aldrich took Demopoulos down in the opening 60 seconds and spent the next three minutes on top before allowing Demopoulos to return to her feet in the final minute of the round. Demopoulos is generally content hunting for submissions off of her back, but she never got close to locking anything up in that fight and went 0 for 5 on her takedown attempts while Aldrich took her down once on two attempts. Aldrich led the way in striking and finished ahead in significant strikes 93-70 and 121-87 in total strikes. Aldrich also led in control time with 4:19-1:53 as she finished ahead in every statistical category.
In her second most recent fight, Aldrich won a low-volume split-decision against Courtney Casey. Aldrich somewhat surprisingly implemented a grappling heavy game plan as she landed 4 takedowns on 7 attempts with nearly six minutes of control time. Casey finished ahead in significant strikes 55-45, but Aldrich led in total strikes 121-58. Casey had notably been dominated on the ground in her previous fight against Gillian Robertson, so it makes sense that Aldrich would come in looking to grapple, we just hadn’t seen much grappling out of Aldrich leading up to that. Prior to that win over Casey, Aldrich had landed a total of two takedowns across her first seven UFC fights and has primarily been a striker throughout her UFC career.
Aldrich made her UFC debut in 2016 and lost a grappling heavy decision against Juliana Lima. She then won three straight decisions, but nevertheless decided to move up from 115 lb to 125 lb at that point and immediately suffered her first and only career KO/TKO loss at the hands of Barber. Prior to joining the UFC, Aldrich did have one fight up at 125 lb in 2016, which is just one of the two times she’s finished an opponent early in her career, but the rest of her early career was spent down at 115 lb. Her only career submission loss came at 115 lb in 2015 via a R1 rear-naked choke in what was her second pro fight.
Aldrich is now 10-4 with two wins by KO/TKO (2015 & 2016) and eight wins by decision. She has one loss by KO/TKO, one by submission, and two decision defeats. Her last 10 fights have all made it out of the first round, with nine going the distance.
Training at elevation in Colorado should help Aldrich’s cardio later in fights, and she has decent boxing and has begun mixing in more takedowns recently. She has a 68% career takedown defense, but four of the six times she’s been taken down in her nine UFC fights came in her 2016 UFC debut. Since then, she’s only been taken down twice on 13 attempts (85% defense), and only once on seven attempts (86% defense) since moving up to 125 lb. In fairness, the only grappler she has faced since moving up to 125 lb was Vanessa Demopoulos, who was making her debut up a weight class and is always terrible at landing takedowns. Aldrich also notably has a decision win over armbar specialist Polyana Viana back in 2018.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’5” but Aldrich will have a 4” reach advantage.
Aldrich has been a decision machine and it’s extremely rare to see her fights end early. The only time she hasn’t gone the distance in a fight since 2016 was in her first match after moving up to 125 lb when she suffered her only career KO/TKO loss against a pre-broken Maycee Barber. Aldrich has shown a solid 85% takedown defense over her last eight fights, which should make it tougher for Robertson to get this fight to the ground where she needs it. Even if Robertson is able take Aldrich down at some point, Aldrich has looked decent at defending submissions and the only time she’s ever been submitted was back in 2015 in her second pro fight. Robertson is slick enough with her grappling that she’s still capable of getting a finish, but this certainly doesn’t look like a favorable spot to land one. So between Aldrich’s solid takedown and submission defenses, we expect her to be able to remain in the fight and stay on her feet long enough to win a decision and pull off the upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Aldrich Wins by Decision” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Robertson has scored at least 92 DraftKings points in all seven of her UFC wins, with totals of 117, 94, 92, 110, 106, 97, and 98. After really struggling in her previous two matches as she lost back-to-back decisions, she bounced back with a career best performance in her last fight when she submitted Priscila Cachoeira in the final second of the first round. That was good for 117 DraftKings points in an obvious great spot against an opponent who’s helpless on the mat. Now Robertson faces a far less favorable matchup as she goes against decision machine JJ Aldrich, who has only been taken down twice on 13 attempts in her last eight fights. Aldrich has only only been submitted once in her career, which was in her second pro fight back in 2015. So while Robertson is always live to get a finish, it’s less likely she lands one here in this tougher matchup. Robertson was able to still score 94 DraftKings points in her lone UFC decision win, so if she can control Aldrich on the mat then it’s possible she could still be useful on DraftKings (not FanDuel) even without a finish. However, the fact that she’s coming off a career best performance makes her slightly less appealing in tournaments as it should boost her ownership some. The odds imply she has a 55% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish and an 18% chance it comes in the first round.
Aldrich has never been one to score well in DFS, with DraftKings scores of 86, 81, 69, 59, 63, and 69 in her six UFC wins. All of those victories ended in decisions and she hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016 in her fourth pro fight. She’s coming off a career best performance in an ideal scenario against a short notice replacement making her debut up a weight class, but was still only able to score 86 points. Aldrich will be less likely to want to shoot for takedowns against a one-dimensional grappler like Robertson, which makes this an even tougher spot for her to return value. Working in her favor, Aldrich will have the striking advantage, so if she can keep the fight standing she should be able to easily dictate the pace. She’ll constantly be defending takedowns though, so it will be hard for her to put up a huge striking total. Even at her cheaper price tag, it’s hard to see her putting up a usable score without a finish, which is highly unlikely. The odds imply Aldrich has a 45% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #7
Matthew Semelsberger
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off an easy 15 second R1 KO win over a terrible Martin Sano, Semelsberger’s last two victories took a combined 31 seconds. He’s gone 6-1 in his last seven fights, with the one loss coming in a decision against a tough/dangerous Khaos Williams. In his last fight, Semelsberger put Sano down with the first punch he really connected on, just keep in mind Sano hadn’t fought in four and a half years leading up to that fight, was 0-2-1 in his previous three, and was only on the card as a favor to the Diaz brothers. They might as well just have pulled a fan out of the audience for Semelsberger to fight.
Semelsberger came into the UFC on a three fight winning streak in 2020 and defeated a terrible Carlton Minus in a high-volume decision. He then knocked out Jason Witt in just 16 seconds in his second UFC match, before taking a step up in competition against Khaos Williams and losing a hardfought decision. Despite losing that fight, in some ways it was Semelsberger’s most impressive performance to date as he showed his durability and that he could compete at the next level. Williams led in significant strikes 91-64 and in total strikes 114-68, while neither guy attempted a takedown in the match. Semelsberger is the first person in the UFC to really stand and trade with Williams and live to tell about it, as Williams finished his first two opponents in just 57 combined seconds before Michel Pereira used his footwork and takedowns to defeat Williams in a tactical decision without ever having to trade in a phone booth.
Seven of Semelsberger’s nine pro wins have come early, with six KOs and one submission. His last four finishes have all been by KO in the first two rounds, with his last three finishes ending in the first half of round one. Two of his three pro losses have also come early, with a 2017 R3 brabo choke in his third pro fight and then a 2018 R3 KO in his 5th pro match. The only decision he’s ever lost came against Williams.
Semelsberger started off as a 205 lb amateur before dropping down to 185 lb when he went pro. He then dropped down to 170 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since. Semelsberger has solid striking and the drive to push the pace in fights.
AJ Fletcher
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a R1 KO win on DWCS in August 2021, Fletcher comes in with a perfect 9-0 record, with eight of those wins coming early. He’s finished seven straight opponents, with his last five fights ending in the first round. Four of those recent five wins have ended in submissions, but he also has four career wins by KO, while his lone decision win came in his second pro fight back in 2019.
In his recent DWCS match, Fletcher landed a takedown a minute into the fight, but was unable to do anything with it as his opponent quickly returned to his feet. Fletcher shot for another takedown a minute later, but he didn’t set it up with anything and it was easily defended. However, just after that he landed a flying knee to end the fight midway through the round. It wasn’t the most eventful fight, as Fletcher led just 10-4 in striking and 1-0 in takedowns.
Prior to going on DWCS, Fletcher landed four straight first round submission wins. His most recent came against a stocky 3-4 opponent, who came in on a two fight skid. Fletcher easily got him to the ground early in the fight and worked his way to a rear-naked choke that he finished from sort of an odd angle with only one hook in.
Looking back one fight further, he submitted a 9-17 opponent in 39-year-old Wesley Golden, who had lost six of his previous seven fights and has gone 2-3 since the loss to Fletcher. That fight took place in a ring opposed to a cage under the iKon Fighting Federation. Fletcher immediately dropped Golden with a big right hand a few seconds into the fight, and then was somehow able to force a tap from an arm-triangle choke while he was still essentially in full mount, which is very unusual.
Coming out of Lafayette, Louisiana, Fletcher has trained with Dustin Poirier, who will actually be cornering him in his debut. Fletcher is a stocky former football player, who is short for the 170 lb division at just 5’10”. His second pro fight was down at 155 lb, but his other eight matches have all been at 170 lb. He hasn’t faced much in terms of competition and only three of his nine career wins came against opponents with winning records.
Overall, Fletcher offers a well rounded attack of both striking and grappling, but he’ll likely struggle with the size of UFC opponents at 170 lb. We also haven’t seen the cleanest submission techniques out of him, and while he was able to get away with that on the regional scene, it will likely be tougher for him to complete submissions at the UFC level until he cleans that up. Overall, he’s still a very raw fighter who turned pro less than three years ago.
Fight Prediction:
Semelsberger will have a 3” height advantage and 8” reach advantage.
We’ve yet to see Semelsberger really have to defend any grappling in his four UFC fights, as the only opponent to attempt a takedown against him was a terrible Carlton Minus, who unsurprisingly failed to land it. While Fletcher is somewhat undersized for the 170 lb division and has competed at 155 lb in the past, Semelsberger actually fought all the way up at 205 lb as an amateur and started his pro career off at 185 lb before moving down to 170 lb. So Semelsberger should have a major size advantage in this matchup. The only time Semelsberger has been submitted in his career came in his third pro fight, but he’s had to defend so little grappling it’s impossible to know what improvements he has made to his ground game. His size should make it tougher for Fletcher to get him to the mat, but we have seen Fletcher exert decently heavy top pressure once he gets opponents to the ground. So if Fletcher is able to land a takedown, things could get hairy for Semelsberger off his back. With that said, Semelsberger will have the striking advantage on the feet, and Fletcher has yet to be tested much in his career. That leaves some uncertainty surrounding his chin and durability, but Semelsberger will likely test it. So overall, there’s a lot of uncertainty in this matchup, which makes it a trickier one to predict, but Semelsberger will want to keep it standing to hunt for a knockout, while Fletcher will be looking to get it to the ground to try and land a submission. We like Semelsberger to rely on his size and power to hand Fletcher his first career loss, but whether it comes by KO or in a decision largely depends on how Fletcher’s chin holds up, which remains more or less of an unknown at this point. We’ll lean that Semelsberger gets a knockout, but with Fletcher looking to slow the fight down with grappling, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see this go the distance.
Our favorite bet here is “Semelsberger Wins by Decision” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Semelsberger unsurprisingly put up massive scores (126 both times) in his two first round knockouts that each came in the opening 16 seconds of those fights, but he also notably scored 103 points in a decision victory in his UFC debut. In fairness, that came in a dream spot against Carlton Minus. Nevertheless, Semelsberger’s high striking output of 6.16 SSL/min (3rd highest on the slate), keeps him in play beyond the first round. At his high price tag it will still be harder for him to return value without an early knockout, but it’s not entirely impossible. Working against him, his opponent, AJ Fletcher, will likely be looking to grapple, which will potentially limit Semelsberger’s ability to put up a huge striking total. Considering Fletcher is making his UFC debut, this is a high variance spot as we don’t fully know what to expect out of him yet in the UFC. So while it’s entirely possible Semelsberger simply steamrolls him, we could also see a close back and forth fight with Semelsberger forced to focus on defending takedowns. So there are a wide range of potential scoring outcomes, and while Semelsberger still has a massive ceiling, his floor is uncertain in this matchup. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Fletcher comes into the UFC with a perfect 9-0 record, with eight of those wins coming early, including submissions in four of his last five and five straight first round finishes. While he hasn’t been facing the toughest of competition, his track record clearly presents scoring upside and now he squares off against a one-dimensional striker in Semelsberger. The size discrepancy is concerning for Fletcher’s ability to control Semelsberger in the grappling exchanges, but if Fletcher can get this fight to the ground, he can be heavy on top with his stocky frame. It’s far less likely that he’ll win a striking battle, so his success hinges on whether or not he can turn it into a grappling match. While this certainly isn’t an easy matchup for Fletcher to be making his debut in, it’s also not terrible for him stylististically and he has a shot to either land a submission or grind out a grappling heavy decision win. He’s seen the line move in his favor and the odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Alex Pereira
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off an early round two KO win over Andreas Michailidis in his recent UFC debut, Pereira was unsurprisingly forced to defend takedowns for the entire first round, but showed a glimpse of how dangerous his striking is once the fight was returned to the feet in round two. Michailidis landed 2 of his 7 takedown attempts with four minutes of control time, but was never able to do anything with them.
That was just Pereira’s 5th pro MMA fight, and only his second since 2016. He originally looked to make the transition from kickboxing to MMA in 2015, but after going 2-1 from 2015 to 2016 he returned to kickboxing full time and didn’t have another MMA fight for the next four and a half years until he gave it another shot in November 2020. He won that fight with a first round knockout and a year later stepped into his UFC debut. He’s now 4-1 as a pro, and after getting submitted in the third round of his 2015 pro debut, he’s knocked out four straight opponents, split across the first two rounds.
While his MMA experience is still very limited, he has 40 kickboxing fights to his name (33-7) including noteworthy knockouts over Israel Adesanya (2017) and Dustin Jacoby (2014), along with another decision win over Adesanya in 2016. Pereira has also been knocked out twice himself in kickboxing matches.
We’ve seen countless kickboxers cross over to MMA and struggle with both grappling and cardio as they go from fighting three minute rounds to five. Pereira was no different and when he made his pro MMA debut back in 2015, grappling and cardio both appeared to be his Achilles' heel, as he was taken down with relative ease at multiple points and eventually submitted in the third round by his portly opponent. He was able to bounce back with a first round KO win, but only after the ref stood the fight back up after he was again taken down. So clearly his grappling is a liability and he has no ground game.
Prior to his UFC debut, his only MMA fight since 2016 occurred in the LFA in November 2020 and Pereira landed another R1 KO with a violent left hook that left his opponent unconscious for several minutes. Following that fight, he competed in two more kickboxing bouts, winning the Glory Kickboxing Light Heavyweight Belt in a January 2021 split-decision and then losing the title in a rematch via decision in September 2021. After competing at 209 lb as a kickboxer, Pereira dropped back down to 185 lb for his UFC debut, where all four of his previous MMA fights had also been.
Overall, Pereira is an aggressive striker with a dangerous left hook and violent kicks and knees, but has yet to show any sort of well rounded MMA game. In addition to having no grappling skills, we have concerns about his cardio later in fights. However, now he’ll face another one-dimensional striker and the UFC has opted not to test Pereira’s glaring weakness here.
Bruno Silva
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Silva has knocked out seven straight opponents, with five of those ending in the first round, and has impressively gone 17-1 in his last 18 fights dating back to 2012. Just two of those 18 fights went the distance, while 15 ended in KO wins, including 12 in the first round. He holds a 22-6 overall pro record, with 19 knockouts and three decision wins. His one vulnerability has been his grappling and five of his six career losses have ended in submissions, with the other ending in a DQ for an illegal upkick back in 2011. He’s only been to three decisions in 28 pro fights (2011, 2015 & 2016).
His most recent victim was Jordan Wright, who Silva knocked out in just 88 seconds. Wright did what he always does as he came out throwing a ton of kicks and then looked to lock Silva up in the Thai clinch to land heavy knees. Silva muscled his way out of the position and responded with a flurry of punches that had Wright stumbling back and then Silva quickly finished him with a barrage of heavy punches. Silva’s heavy hands were on full display and as soon as he landed anything clean on Wright the fight was basically over.
Prior to that quick win, Silva took on a pair of grapplers in his first two UFC fights and passed both tests despite his biggest weakness historically being his submission defense. His second most recent win came against Andrew Sanchez, who was able to take Silva down 7 times on 12 attempts in the first two rounds with nearly eight minutes of control time. Sanchez was gassed by the third round and was deducted a point for his third groin strike after landing two earlier in the fight. His half-hearted takedown attempts became telegraphed in the third round and Silva was able to force a stoppage along the fence as he teed off on Sanchez who was simply shelling by the end. Silva finished ahead in significant strikes 70-33 and in total strikes 100-86. Sanchez has historically struggled with his cardio late in fights, so the outcome wasn’t entirely surprising, but Silva was able to demonstrate he has the cardio to land finishes late in fights even after being grappled for 10 minutes.
In his UFC debut, Silva knocked out Wellington Turman, who had just been knocked out by Andrew Sanchez in the first round of his previous fight. Turman went 0 for 10 on his relentless takedown attempts, as Silva spent the entire round defending submissions and trying to remain on his feet. Near the end of the round, Silva was able to shake Turman off his back and impressively knock him out as Silva posted up on his knees as Turman lay on the mat with a loose open guard. That win in his debut followed a 31 month layoff, after Silva had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Deron Winn all the way back in June 2019, but failed a drug test and was suspended for two years after testing positive for steroids.
Silva has gone 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts so far in the UFC, but we did see him land two of his three attempts in his last M-1 fight before his extended layoff and subsequent UFC debut. He actually finished that fight in the 4th round through ground and pound on the mat, and while his defensive grappling is a liability, he is capable of landing takedowns and raining down ground and pound.
Fight Prediction:
Pereira will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
This sets up as an absolute banger between two knockout specialists. Silva claims he plans on standing and trading with Pereira, but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts once he’s actually inside the Octagon. While Silva hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his three UFC fights, we have seen him get fights to the ground and beat opponents up with ground and pound prior to joining the organization. That would appear to be his best path to victory in this fight, but he is capable of knocking anyone out with his hands if lands something clean. While Silva is primarily a boxer and doesn’t throw many kicks, Pereira is dangerous with all of his limbs and has a much more diverse striking attack. When you combine that with his height and reach advantages, as well as his plethora of kickboxing experience, it’s harder to see Silva winning this fight if it remains entirely on the feet. We’d be shocked to see this fight make it past the second round and expect to see an early knock out. The sooner Silva shoots for a takedown or at least pushes Pereira up against the cage, the better his chances of winning will be, but at least publicly, he’s claiming that won’t be his game plan. So it’s hard to know what to expect from him, but if he does keep this standing we expect Pereira to knock him out. While there’s a clear path to defeating Pereira through grappling in MMA fights, we don’t have confidence that Silva will take it, so we’re picking Pereira to win this fight by knockout in the first 10 minutes.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at -160.
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DFS Implications:
Pereira is a pure kickboxer with just five MMA fights to his name and there are serious concerns in terms of his grappling and cardio. However, those weaknesses are less likely to be exposed here as he faces a fellow knockout specialist. While 100% of Pereira’s MMA wins have come by KO as well as 86% of Silva’s, neither one of these two have ever been knocked out themselves in an MMA fight, so something will likely have to give here. All four of Pereira’s MMA wins have come in the first two rounds and he’ll generally score well when he wins. He demonstrated just about the worst case scenario with a finish in his last fight where he was controlled for the entire first round and then landed a knockout 18 seconds into round two, which only scored 87 DraftKings points. That shows how he can fail at his high price tag even with a finish, but we’ve yet to see his ceiling. With the highest chances of landing a finish of any fighter on the slate, we expect Pereira to be very popular in all contest types. He likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to be useful, and an early round two KO likely still wouldn’t score enough. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 52% chance to land a finish, and a 29% chance it comes in round one.
Silva comes into this fight having knocked out seven straight opponents and with KOs in 19 of his 22 career wins. He’s impressively won 17 of his last 18 fights and has 13 career first round knockouts. He scored 102 DraftKings points in a R1 KO in his UFC debut, but then just 79 points in a third round knockout in his next fight, after he spent the first two rounds on the mat. He then landed another first round knockout in his last right that was good for 109 points. It would make all the sense in the world for Silva to try and get this fight to the ground, but he has at least publicly stated that won’t be his gameplan. Obviously you can’t believe anything fighters say leading up to fights, but considering he’s won 17 of his last 18 fights, with 15 of those wins coming by KO, including 12 in the first round, he’s also very confident in his own striking abilities on the feet. That could get him into trouble here, but there’s always a chance he lands a clean punch and knocks Pereira out without having to resort to grappling. Silva won’t be low owned, but he’ll be lower owned than Pereira, so he still makes for an interesting leverage play in tournaments. At his cheap price tag, it’s hard to see him getting left out of tournament winning lineups with a finish here. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish and a 15% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Drew Dober
18th UFC Fight (9-7, NC)Dober had been scheduled to face Ricky Glenn here, but Glenn dropped out and McKinney was announced as the replacement eight days before the event.
Looking to bounce back from a pair of losses against really tough opponents, Dober was submitted by Islam Makhachev in March 2021 and then more recently lost an action packed decision to Brad Riddell in June 2021. Dober had Riddell hurt early in round one, but Riddell immediately looked to grapple to buy himself some time to recover. That proved to be a bigger part of his game plan than expected coming in, as Riddell finished the fight landing 5 of his 11 takedown attempts, after previously landing three total takedowns in his first three UFC fights. He shot for so many takedowns he even convinced Dober to start shooting, as he landed 1 of his 5 attempts, which is just the third fight that Dober has landed a takedown in his 17 UFC fights. Riddell also finished ahead in significant strikes 89-73 and in total strikes 113-78.
Prior to that close decision loss, Dober walked into an ambush in a submission loss against future Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. While Dober has six submission wins on his record and wrestled some in high school, he is not a grappler. His background is primarily in Muay Thai and Taekwondo, where he’s a black belt. He does have a brown belt in BJJ, so we’re not saying he’s helpless on the ground, but that’s not where his bread is buttered. Makhachev predictably spent almost the entire fight controlling Dober, with 9:26 of control time in a fight that lasted 11:37. Makhachev led in significant strikes 15-10, but that jumped all the way to 102-14 in total strikes.
While Dober has only been knocked out once in his 34 pro fight career, which was all the way back in 2011, that was the fourth time he’s been submitted in his last 13 fights. He also has six decision losses as he now sits on a 23-11 pro record. Of his 23 wins, 16 have come early, with 10 KOs, six submissions, and seven decisions. Fourteen of his sixteen early wins have come in the first two rounds and the last time he finished an opponent in round three was 2012. Similarly four of his five early losses have also come in the first two rounds, with the one exception being his recent R3 submission loss to Makhachev.
Prior to his recent decision loss, Dober hadn’t been to the judges in five straight fights and his last three wins all ended in knockouts, including a 67 second R1 KO against Marco Polo Reyes, a 70 second R1 KO against Nasrat Haqparast and a R2 KO against Alexander Hernandez. Even with two straight losses, he’s still 6-3 in his last nine fights, with the one other loss coming in a R2 armbar against Beneil Dariush.
Overall, Dober is a powerful, durable brawler who generally comes out ahead in firefights (other than his last fight), but often struggles against grapplers.
Terrance McKinney
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)A vocal fan of doing everything twice, McKinney will now step inside the Octagon for the second time in two weeks. He just submitted Fares Ziam in 131 seconds on February 26th, which is his 5th straight first round finish and second since joining the UFC. That recent win actually took longer than his previous four combined as he amazingly finished his previous four opponents in a combined 113 seconds (7, 72, 17 & 16 s). Those previous four finishes all ended in knockouts, while we finally got to see some of his grappling for the first time in a while in his last fight.
McKinney started that last match by missing on a big left hand in the opening seconds, but he used that to carry his momentum into Ziam and win a scramble on the mat to assume top position just eight seconds into the fight. He never allowed Ziam to return to his feet from that point on, as he aggressively advanced his position while mixing in ground and pound. Ziam gave up his back in an unsuccessful attempt to return to his feet, and shortly thereafter McKinney was able to wrap up a rear–naked choke from an awkward angle and surprisingly force a tap to the chagrin of Michael Bisping, who simultaneously proclaimed on the broadcast that Ziam was in no danger. Ziam landed just a single strike in the match and McKinney absorbed no damage in the brief fight.
Prior to that submission win, McKinney had one of the more electric UFC debuts you can ask for, after he stepped in on short notice and knocked out Matt Frevola in just seven seconds as he dropped him with the first two punches he threw. Frevola didn’t even have a chance to throw a strike and McKinney’s two UFC opponents combined to throw just a single strike at him.
McKinney has only ever been in one fight that lasted longer than seven minutes, which was a 2018 R3 submission win that ended at the 10:43 mark, and he has never been to the judges in 15 pro fights.
Impressively, 13 of his 15 fights have ended in the first round (11-2), with seven of those ending in the first minute (5-2). He’s 12-3 as a pro, with five KOs and seven wins by submission. His last eight and 11 of his 12 career wins have come in under three minutes. He’s lost twice by KO/TKO and has been submitted once, although one of his KO/TKO losses resulted from a leg injury early in his career. The other two early losses came in consecutive 2019 matches against fighters who are currently in the UFC in Sean Woodson and Darrick Minner.
McKinney originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2019, nearly submitting Sean Woodson as he controlled his back for most of the fight until Woodson was able to escape and land a flying knee KO early in round two. McKinney then suffered another loss in his next fight against submission ninja Darrick Minner. McKinney got Minner to the ground, but the dangerous submission specialist was able to quickly throw up a triangle choke, forcing McKinney to tap. We didn’t see McKinney fight again for 17 months following the pair of disappointing losses.
After taking a year and a half off, McKinney exploded back onto the MMA scene in the Spring of 2021 with newly improved striking as he landed four straight first round KOs over a four month period, with the most recent of those two coming just a week apart in his final LFA fight and his June 2021 UFC debut.
In the first of those four finishes, McKinney won with a 16 second R1 KO against a suspect Dedrek Sanders, who was coming off a pair of early losses and is now 3-3 as a pro. McKinney landed a violent left head kick that dropped Sanders and then finished it with ground and pound.
Then, less than two months later, McKinney landed another ultra quick KO with a 17 second finish in April 2021 against a 37-year-old opponent in Luiz Antonio Lobo Gavinho, who’s only loss in his previous six fights came against Cory Sandhagen. McKinney again went for a left head kick and landed shin-to-head on Gavinho. McKinney again went for a left head kick and landed his shin to the head of Gavinho to start the fight and immediately finished it with aggressive ground and pound.
Next, McKinney was in a significantly longer fight that made it all the way to the 72 second mark before he finished it with his third straight first round KO. That was enough to get him a shot in the UFC and his skills appeared to translate seamlessly as he landed a knockout in just seven seconds.
With a college wrestling background, McKinney has a solid grappling base that he utilizes with a kinetic pace and his striking has also really improved a lot in the last couple of years. For such a lean frame, he definitely has knockout power, which he’s put on full display.
McKinney turned pro in 2017 and started off at 145 lb before moving up to 155 lb in his fourth pro fight. He also fought as high as 170 lb once, but he has remained at 155 lb for his recent five fight winning streak. Notably, all three of his career losses came down at 145 lb and he’s never lost a fight at Lightweight.
Fight Prediction:
McKinney will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as one of the most exciting fights on the card between two electric finishers. Five of Dober’s last six fights have ended early, and McKinney has yet to be introduced to the judges in 15 pro matches. McKinney appears to have the faster hands of the two, but Dober looks to be more durable and have the better cardio. With that said, it’s been so long since anyone has landed anything clean on McKinney that his chin remains more or less of a mystery. McKinney will also have the wrestling advantage, which would appear to be his path of least resistance to winning this fight considering it’s been 11 years since Dober suffered his lone career KO loss. McKinney’s cardio remains the biggest question mark with him, largely because we rarely get to see it. While we would generally be more concerned about McKinney taking this fight on short notice, especially after fighting just two weeks ago, he did the same thing in his UFC debut when he immediately knocked out Matt Frevola on short notice just a week after winning an LFA fight. That could still play a factor in McKinney’s cardio if this fight makes it to the later rounds though, and we expect the winner of this match to likely hinge on how long the fight lasts. McKinney is absolutely explosive in the first round, but if Dober can survive the initial five minutes we like his chances to finish McKinney later in the fight. With that said, both of these two are so dangerous they could end the fight at any moment and there’s no way to be certain in how this one goes. Based on McKinney’s wrestling and speed advantages, we slightly prefer his chances to pull off the upset and land another first round finish, but Dober is fully capable of taking him into deep waters and landing a finish of his own and it feels sort of gross and fishy picking McKinney to win here, but we’re doing it anyways.
Our favorite bet here is “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +114.
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DFS Implications:
Dober consistently scores well in DFS when he wins, and even in decisions has shown a solid floor, albeit not one that can propel him into tournament winning lineups. His last three wins have all come by KO in the first two rounds, with DraftKings totals of 96, 105, and 107. While he scores well when he wins, he rarely puts up massive slate-breaking totals as he’s a one-dimensional striker who doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. That makes it a little tougher for him to return value at his high price tag, but he’ll be a solid leverage play here in tournaments, as McKinney again projects to be massively owned. Dober is coming off a pair of losses, which should damper his ownership to some extent, despite this being a pace up matchup against a short notice replacement. Dober will have a massive experience advantage in this matchup, and should hold the upper hand in terms of cardio if this makes it beyond the first round. Don’t get it wrong, he’ll have his work cut out for him with the ever explosive Mckinney, but if Dober can survive the initial blitz then he should be in a good position to land a knockout as Mckinney begins to slow down. We’d be lying if we said we knew how this fight would play out and you definitely want to have exposure to both sides. The odds imply Dober has a 59% chance to win, a 39% chance to get a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in the first round.
McKinney has been absolutely unstoppable lately and may have been the highest owned three-round underdog we’ve ever seen in his fight two weeks ago, where he checked in with an absurd 56% ownership priced at $7,800 as a slight +100 underdog. After finishing that fight with yet another first round finish, it will be interesting to see where the field ends up this time as his price drops down to just $7,200. He’ll easily be the highest owned underdog on the slate, but the bigger question is, will he be the highest owned fighter on the slate? The line has already moved considerably in his favor despite the fact he took this fight on eight days’ notice after just competing two weeks ago. However he took his UFC debut on short notice just eight days after competing in the LFA, so apparently he has no problem with quick turnarounds. He has finished five straight opponents in the first half of round one, with three of those fights ending in 17 seconds or less. Amazingly, 11 of his 12 career wins have come in under three minutes and Bruce Buffer’s introductions generally last longer than McKinney’s fights. Clearly the leverage play for tournaments is to fade the insanely popular underdog going into the toughest matchup of his career on eight days’ notice, but it’s a tough pill to swallow when you watch how this guy fights. In addition to his explosive hands, he’s also a solid wrestler and a win of any type should result in him ending up in winning lineups. The odds imply McKinney has a 41% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Karl Roberson
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Moving back up to 205 lb for the first time since 2019 in what will be his second UFC fight at 205 lb, Roberson has spent most of his career down at 185 lb, but has struggled to get down to that weight and has had numerous fights canceled over the last few years leading up to weigh-ins. He also missed weight by 4.5 lb for his second most recent fight that did happen, so it’s not that surprising he’s going to give 205 lb another shot. The last time he competed at the weight class was in 2019 against Glover Teixeira. Roberson looked close to getting Glover out of there early, but as he often does, Glover was able to turn the tables and get a first round finish of his own with an arm-triangle choke.
Roberson’s second most recent fight at 205 lb came on DWCS in 2017, when he finished Ryan Spann in just 15 seconds with a series of short elbows. You could certainly argue the stoppage was too quick. The only other time Roberson has competed at 205 lb was just before going on DWCS, when he landed a first round submission in the CFFC. Roberson would be a prime candidate for a 195 lb division as he appears to be a fighter stuck between two weight classes.
Roberson has been submitted in the first round in all four of his pro losses. Despite being so vulnerable to getting submitted, Roberson has actually finished four of his nine career wins by submission and all eight of his UFC fights have either ended in submissions (2-4) or decisions (2-0). Now 9-4 as a pro, he only has two wins by KO/TKO, the 2017 R1 finish of Ryan Spann and another R1 TKO in 2017 in his third pro fight. He also has three decision wins. All four of his career submission losses have occurred in his last seven fights. His last two fights ended in submission losses to Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori, so it’s nice of the UFC to finally pair him up with a striker.
Roberson is a former kickboxer with Glory Kickboxing and is now training with James Krause at Glory MMA & Fitness.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
12th UFC Fight (5-5, NC)Coming off a brutal R2 leg kick TKO win over Modestas Bukauskas, Rountree destroyed the knee of Bukauskas with a kick so gruesome it had some people talking about whether or not it should even be legal. Rountree pressured Bukauskas throughout the fight as Bukauskas circled the outside of the cage leading up to the finish. The fight ended with Rountree ahead in strikes 38-23, with neither freighter attempting a takedown. Rountree was desperate for a win in that spot after losing three of his previous four matches, including his last two.
Prior to that win Rountree lost a decision against a highly questionable Marcin Prachnio, who was coming off three straight first round KO losses. Prachnio outlanded Rountree 102-49 in significant strikes and 105-50 in total strikes in a fight that played out entirely on the feet.
Prior to the January 2021 loss to Prachnio, Rountree hadn’t competed since suffering a September 2019 R1 KO loss to Ion Cutelaba. Rountree was also knocked out in the first round by Johnny Walker in 2018 and was submitted in the first round by Tyson Pedro back in 2016. He’s lost 3 of the 4 decisions he’s been to in the UFC, but his loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk was overturned to a No Contest when Oleksiejczuk tested positive for a banned substance.
Six of Roundtree’s 11 UFC fights have ended in the first round with him winning half of those. He started his UFC career off with back to back losses—a decision to Andrew Sanchez followed by a R1 rear-naked choke to Tyson Pedro. He bounced back from the pair of losses with a pair of R1 KOs over Daniel Jolly and Paul Craig. Then he lost a decision to Oleksiejczuk, which was later overturned to a No Contest. Once again, he bounced back from a loss with another R1 KO over Gokhan Saki. Then he took on Johnny Walker in Walker’s debut and got planked with an elbow to end the fight, less than two minutes into the first round.
Once again, Rountree bounced back with an impressive performance—this time a three round decision win over Eryk Anders, which probably should have been stopped but wasn’t. Rountree landed an unheard of four knockdowns in the second round, but Anders continued to get up and the ref never stopped it. It was an absolutely dominating one-sided fight that scored 104 DraftKings points even with no takedowns and a moderate amount of striking volume. Roundtree followed up the great performance with another dud in an early R1 KO loss, this time at the hands of Ion Cutelaba.
Six of his nine pro wins have come by KO, including five in the first round and one in round two. His other three wins were by decision, although two of those came in his first three pro fights and he’s mostly struggled with the judges recently. Three of his five losses also came early—two by KO and one by submission.
Rountree is a violent striker with questionable chin, which is why win or lose so many of his fights have ended in the first round. While he’s fought exclusively at 205 in the UFC, he competed down at 185 lb some earlier in his career. He’s never landed a takedown and relies on his striking to win fights and five of his last six wins have come by KO.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’1” but Rountree will have a 2” reach advantage.
Karl Roberson has never lost a fight where he wasn’t submitted. Khalil Rountree Jr. has never landed a submission. What else needs to be said? In all seriousness though, Roberson is solid on the feet and while moving up to 205 lb should test his durability, especially against a powerful striker like Rountree, at least Roberson won’t have to worry about grappling here. We expect this to be a close fight, but neither guy appears geared towards capitalizing on the others’ weakness (Roberson’s neck & Rountree’s chin), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see it go the distance, despite what the odds indicate. Roberson is a more technical striker, while Rountree relies more on power shots and we like Roberson to win a tactical striking battle and outland his way to a decision victory.
Our favorite bet here is “Roberson Wins by Decision” at +320.
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DFS Implications:
Roberson scored 105 DraftKings points in his 2017 UFC debut when he submitted Darren Stewart in R1, but has since failed to score above 81 points in his last seven fights. In his two decision wins, he scored just 81 and 74 points, and he also has a third round submission victory that was good for just 69. So he appears reliant on landing a finish early in this fight to put up a usable score, as he’s never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a UFC fight and only has four takedowns in eight matches. He has two just KO wins in his career and none in the UFC. In addition to that, he’s now moving up from 185 lb to 205 lb, so even though Rountree has shown a suspect chin, Roberson is still not the most likely candidate to take advantage of that. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Rountree consistently scores well when he wins, with DraftKings totals of 95, 104, 104, 106, and 127 in his five UFC victories. Three of those came by R1 KO, one ended in a R2 KO, and the other was a decision victory with an insane four knockdowns landed. Roberson has never been knocked out or lost a decision and Rountree and never landed a submission, so at least on paper this looks like a tough matchup for Rountree to win. With that said, the move up in weight class for Roberson adds some uncertainty to the mix, and it’s certainly possible that Rountree is simply able to overpower him and land another knockout. As a boom or bust play, it still makes sense to have some exposure to Rountree, but this looks like a less favorable matchup than his last one. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #3
Sodiq Yusuff
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss and the first decision loss of his career, Yusuff had a six fight winning streak snapped in a decision defeat against a tough Arnold Allen. Yusuff looked to pressure Allen early in the fight, but Allen was able to take Yusuff down twice and drop him with a left hand in the first round. Yusuff quickly recovered after getting hurt, but that clearly won Allen the first round. Allen connected with a left head kick in round two and again had Yusuff hurt, but again Yusuff was able to quickly recover. Yusuff won the third round as he outlanded Allen 16-2 in significant strikes and 31-2 in total strikes in the round, but Allen had the big moments in the first two rounds to win a unanimous 29-28 decision despite Yusuff leading in striking in all three rounds and finishing the fight ahead in significant strikes 47-21 and in total strikes 79-26. Allen landed two of his five takedown attempts, and led in control time 5:09-2:33, while Yusuff failed to land his only takedown attempt.
That was Yusuff’s second straight fight to go the distance and third in his last four matches. He knocked out two of his first three UFC opponents in the first round, but his other three UFC fights have all gone the distance. Looking at his entire pro career, he owns an 11-2 record, with all 13 of his fights ending in knockouts (6-1) or decisions (5-1). The first two knockouts of his career both ended in round two wins in his first three pro fights in 2016, but the last five have all come in round one (4-1). His last 10 fights have been split evenly between round one KOs and decisions. His lone KO loss came in the first round of a 2017 Titan FC Featherweight Championship fight.
Prior to his recent decision loss, Yusuff won a unanimous 29-28 decision over a really tough Andre Fili, just after knocking out Gabriel Benitez in the first round of a 2019 match. Yusuff’s only other UFC finish came against Suman Mokhtarian in Yusuff’s 2018 UFC debut. For what it’s worth, Mokhtarian finished his UFC career with an 0-2 record.
Yusuff has failed to land any takedowns in the UFC on five attempts and relies on his striking to win fights. He has a solid right outside leg kick that was on full display when he destroyed the lead leg of Mike Davis on DWCS in 2018. However, that attack isn’t there when he faces southpaws unless he looks to land it to the back leg of his opponents, as we saw him try with varying success against Allen. That’s a tougher strike to pull off and requires you to close the distance more than attacking the lead leg. So in general, one of Yusuff’s best attacks is greatly diminished when he faces southpaw fighters, as he will be in this upcoming match.
Yusuff cuts a lot of weight to get down to 145 lb and fought some at 155 lb early in his pro career, which could contribute to why he has been the most dangerous in the opening five minutes and hasn’t finished an opponent beyond the first round since 2016.
Alex Caceres
26th UFC Fight (14-10, NC)Entering this fight on a five fight winning streak, Caceres handled adversity well in his last match as he quickly recovered after being dropped by a stiff right hand in the opening minutes against a powerful striker in Seung Woo Choi. That fight was on the verge of being called off after Choi landed an illegal knee as Caceres returned to his feet just after getting rocked by the right hand. While that compounded the damage Caceres took, it also gave him some additional time to recover from both the legal and illegal strikes. Caceres was fortunately cleared by the doctor to continue as he refused to milk the effects of the illegal strike as we’ve seen many fighters do, especially just after getting rocked from a legal blow. Caceres looked to effectively recover from both blows following the break in the action. Choi continued to show an advantage on the feet, but three minutes into round two Caceres was able to take his back on the feet as he looked to wrap up a rear-naked choke. Choi collapsed to his knees and quickly tapped as Caceres secured his second rear-naked choke victory in his last three fights.
Caceres’ last eight fights have now all ended in either decisions (4-1) or submissions (2-1). In 25 UFC fights, his only win by TKO/KO came in a 2017 match where the fight was stopped following the second round due to his opponent suffering an eye injury. On the other side of things, the only time he’s ever lost by KO/TKO in his 32 pro fights came 21 seconds into the first round of a 2015 match. He owns a 19-12 pro record plus a split-decision win over a tough Kyung Ho Kang that was later overturned to a No Contest when Caceres tested positive for THC. Three of his wins have ended in KOs, with two coming prior to joining the UFC, while he also has seven submission victories, with three of those occurring before he joined the UFC. He has nine wins by decision, with all of those coming in the UFC, as all seven of his pre-UFC fights ended early from 2008 to 2010. He has just one career KO loss, but has been submitted seven times to go along with four decision defeats. Four of those seven submission losses notably occurred in 2011 or prior. He’s only been finished twice in his last 13 fights dating back to 2015—both times by submission (2017 & 2019). If we include the one that was later overturned to a No Contest, seven of his 14 career decisions have been split (4-3).
Quietly on a five fight winning streak, Caceres has greatly benefited from a series of low-level opponents. Three of those wins ended in decisions, while he was able to submit short notice replacement Austin Springer, who was making his UFC debut. Leading up to that, Caceres won decisions over a suspect Steven Peterson and a one-dimensional grappler in Chase Hooper. Following the win over Springer, Caceres won a decision against Kevin Croom, who was fighting for the second time in the UFC. So outside of Choi, Caceres has been facing low-level opponents. The R1 submission win over Springer is notably Caceres’ only R1 win in his 25 UFC fights.
Caceres made his UFC debut in 2011 at 145 lb, but after starting 0-2 with the organization he dropped down to 135 lb later in 2011, where he stayed until 2015 going 5-4 during that stretch. However, after losing three fights in a row at 135 lb in 2014 and 2015, Caceres decided to move back up to 145 lb to try and keep his job. The switch appears to have helped him and he seems to have found a late career resurgence.
Looking at his entire career, Caceres is 19-12 with three wins by KO, seven by submission and nine decisions. He’s only been knocked out once, but has been submitted seven times and has lost four decisions. Despite owning twice as many submission wins as KOs in his career, Caceres has only landed two takedowns in his last 10 fights. His karate style approach to fighting generally results in somewhat lower volume striking battles as he averages 4.14 SSL/min and 2.85 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Caceres will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
While Yusuff has historically looked to attack the left leg of his opponents, Caceres’s wide karate southpaw stance will make it tough for Yusuff to find his left leg. However, his right leg will be available all day so it will be interesting to see if Yusuff changes his approach and looks to attack the inside of Caceres’s right lead leg or if he simply abandons leg strikes for the most part. Outside of Choi in his last fight, we haven’t seen Caceres face many powerful strikers in recent years as he went up against a series of grapplers leading up to that recent win over Choi. It’s possible that’s giving us a false sense of security with Caceres’ chin and he did notably get dropped in the first round by Choi. Nevertheless, the fact that Caceres has only been knocked out once in 32 pro fights is very encouraging for his chances to survive the first round of this fight, which is when Yusuff has been the most dangerous. While both guys are theoretically capable of ending this fight in a submission, we expect it to go the distance. While we agree with the bookmakers that Yusuff has a better chance to win a decision, and that’s how we expect the fight to end, Caceres’ decision line is pretty interesting.
Our favorite bet here is “Caceres Wins by Decision” at +400.
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DFS Implications:
Yusuff has been a R1 KO or bust play in DFS throughout his first five UFC fights and that’s unlikely to change here. He’s yet to land a takedown in any of his five UFC matches or in his DWCS match, and he’s also failed to land more than 73 significant strikes since joining the UFC, despite three of those going the distance. Now he’ll go up against the challenging karate southpaw stance of Alex Caceres, who only absorbs an average of 2.85 SS/min. Caceres’ stance will also take away one of Yusuff’s best weapons in his right leg kick, which he’s used well to attack the lead left leg of Orthadox stance opponents, but has struggled more to effectively utilize when facing southpaws. Considering Caceres has only been knocked out once in 32 pro fights, this doesn’t look like a good matchup for Yusuff to get the first round knockout he needs to score well, and while a rare later round finish for him could potentially still score decently, he can’t return value in a decision. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
This will be Caceres’ 26th UFC fight and he’s only topped 98 DraftKings points in two of those—a 2017 R2 KO win where he scored 105 and a 2016 decision win where he scored 116 as he filled up the stat sheet. With that said, he’s shown a decent floor for the most part recently, with DraftKings scores of 91, 76, 98, 92, and 68 in his last five wins. Just keep in mind, he landed two submission wins in his last three fights, and this looks like a tougher spot for him to get a finish. So if we look strictly at his decision scores, he’s totaled 76, 92, 68, and 65 going back to 2018, which is good for an average of 75 points. So Caceres would likely need more of a ceiling performance in a decision to return value even at his cheaper price tag on a slate this large. Yusuff is a tough guy to score well against, as he’s a dangerous striker with a respectable 68% takedown defense. Caceres won’t want to stand and trade with him, which will leave him reliant on picking his spots from the outside and using his kicks to control the distance. So if this does go the distance as we expect, it will likely end in a lower volume decision with the winner failing to score well. The odds imply Caceres has a 31% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Song Yadong
10th UFC Fight (7-1-1)Coming off his first early win in his last five fights dating back to 2019, Yadong became the first fighter to ever knock out former NY Golden Gloves Champion Julio Arce. The fight started off pretty slow, with Yadong leading 17-5 in significant strikes in round one. Arce got a little more aggressive in round two and Yadong made him pay for it as he landed a solid right head early in the round that appeared to daze Arce, and then followed up with a combination of punches to force the stoppage along the fence. The fight ended with Yadong ahead in striking 30-13, with neither guy attempting a takedown.
Prior to that knockout, Yadong had fought to four straight decisions (2-1-1) since knocking out Alejandro Perez back in July 2019. All of those decisions came against tough, durable opponents, who have never been knocked out in their careers. His last decision win came in his second most recent fight against oversized Oompa Loompa Casey Kenney. Yadong handedly outlanded Kenney 116-78 in significant strikes as he came out ahead in striking in all three rounds (31-19, 34-28 & 51-31). Kenney also only landed one of his five takedown attempts with just 26 seconds of total control time, but seemed shocked when he heard the decision hadn’t gone his way.
Just prior to his recent loss, Yadong suffered his only loss in the UFC and first overall since 2016, in a unanimous 28-29 decision to Kyler Phillips after going 8-0-1 in his previous nine fights. Yadong actually finished ahead in significant strikes 67-59 and in total strikes 89-69, but Phillips landed 3 of his 5 takedown attempts and led in strikes in the first round.
Yadong is now 18-6-1 as a pro, with 10 of his 18 wins ending early, including seven KOs and three submissions. The only time Yadong has ever been finished came in a 2016 R2 knockout when he was just 18 years old, in a match that was fought up at Featherweight (145 lb) prior to joining the UFC. He has competed at both 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career, however all but two of his UFC fights have been down at 135 lb. So far in the UFC, he’s 2-0 with a submission and a decision at 145 lb and 5-1-1 at 135 lb with three knockout victories and four decisions (2-1-1).
Yadong made his 2017 short notice UFC debut in his home country of China as the youngest fighter on the roster at just 19 years old. However, you wouldn’t have guessed it from his performance as he submitted Bharat Khandare with a R1 guillotine choke. For what it’s worth, that was the third time Khandare has been submitted in just eight pro fights and he’s been choked out in the first round of his last two matches. Yadong knocked Khandare down with a stiff right hand and then locked in a Guillotine as he attempted to get back up.
Yadong followed up the impressive win with a R2 KO of Felipe Arantes, who was coming off a pair of decision losses, but had previously never been knocked out in 28 pro fights. Yadong landed both a takedown and a knockdown in that match and was able to exert heavy top pressure and vicious ground and pound. He finished the fight with just one second remaining in the second round with a sharp elbow out of the clinch. He ended up with over six minutes of control time in the match.
Yadong then took on Vince Morales, who he defeated in a unanimous 30-27 decision. Next, in 2019 Yadong took on an experienced UFC veteran in #13 ranked Alejandro Perez who came into the fight with a 7-2-1 UFC record and having not been finished since 2015. Yadong knocked Perez out in just 124 seconds. Since then he went the distance against Cody Stamann, Marlon Vera, Kyler Phillips and Casey Kenney, leading up to his recent R2 KO win over Arce.
Yadong’s entire life has been dedicated to the pursuit of martial arts. He started intense training at just 9 years old when he left his family to go train with the Shaolin Monks. By the age of 12 he was already winning championships and he went pro at just 16. He’s an excellent striker with very fast hands, but doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. He managed to go his first four UFC fights without ever being taken down, albeit on just three attempts from his opponents, but as he’s faced tougher competition he’s been taken down 11 times on 25 attempts over his last five fights.
Marlon Moraes
11th UFC Fight (5-5)Trying to break free from a downward death spiral, Moraes has been knocked out in three straight fights and four of his last five. The only reason he’s not on a five fight losing streak is that he won a split-decision over Jose Aldo in December 2019, in what was Aldo’s first fight after dropping down at 135 lb. It’s been over three years since Moraes finished an opponent and while he’s still just 33 years old, he turned pro 15 years ago in 2007.
Only four of Moraes’s last 13 fights have made it to the third round. One of those ended in a R3 TKO loss to Henry Cejudo, while the other three all ended in split-decisions (2-1). Of his other nine fights during that stretch, six ended in round one (5-1), and three ended in round two (1-2), and Moraes hasn’t finished an opponent beyond the first round since 2016.
Following his 2019 split-decision win over Aldo, Moraes moved from Toms River, NJ to American Top Team in Coconut Creek, FL. He’s since proceeded to get knocked out three straight times and now decided to spend this camp at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand. Unfortunately, he got COVID immediately after arriving in Thailand two months ago, and was quarantined and in the hospital for 12 days. He eventually made it to Tiger Muay Thai, just a couple weeks later than he had intended.
His most recent KO loss came against an unlikely candidate in Merab Dvalishvili, who had won six straight decisions before taking on Moraes. Dvalishvili landed his first takedown 70 seconds into the first round, but Moraes was able to quickly work his way back to his feet. Midway through the round, Moraes had Dvalishvili badly hurt on the feet and appeared to empty the clip on him going for a finish. Through a combination of durability and retreating, along with the help of a long leash from the referee, Dvalishvili somehow survived and eventually pinned an exhausted Moraes up against the fence and then took him down and went to work with ground strikes on the mat in a completely insane turnaround. Both guys were able to survive the round, but Dvalishvili was clearly the fresher fighter in round two and landed an early right hand as he took Moraes back to the mat less than 30 seconds into round two. He then spent the next four minutes landing non stop ground strikes as he shutout Moraes 38-0 in significant strikes and more impressively 142-0 in total strikes in round two. The fight was finally stopped with 35 seconds remaining in the second round, with Dvalishvili ahead in significant strikes 69-29 and in total strikes 246-34. He also landed all four of his takedown attempts with six minutes of control time. That had to be completely demoralizing for Moraes as he started off so strongly in the fight and was seemingly moments away from getting the finish himself.
Prior to that loss, Moraes was knocked out in the first round by Rob Font and the second round by Cory Sandhagen after winning a split decision against Aldo. He was also knocked out in the third round by Henry Cejudo just before taking on Aldo, so Moraes has clearly faced a series of really tough opponents.
After losing his 2017 UFC debut by split-decision against Raphael Assuncao, Moraes fought to another close split-decision against John Dodson, but that time had it swing his way. He then really made a name for himself in the UFC with three straight first round finishes, including a 63 second KO of Aljamain Sterling, a 33 second KO of Jimmie Rivera, and a 197 second Guillotine Submission win over Raphael Assuncao to avenge his earlier loss. The flashy four fight winning streak was enough to get Moraes a title shot against Henry Cejudo, but Cejudo ended up knocking Moraes out in the third round.
Moraes notably holds black belts in both Muay Thai and BJJ. He’s now 23-9-1 as a pro, with 10 wins by KO, six by submission and seven decisions. Eight of his nine career losses have come early, with six KOs, two submissions and one just one decision defeat. Moraes competed some up at 145 lb early in his career and often struggles with his cardio later in fights down at 135 lb. He’s still a very dangerous striker, but his window for landing finishes appears limited to the first round at this stage in his career.
Fight Prediction:
Yadong will have a 2” height advantage and is 9 years younger than the 33-year-old Moraes.
After seeming to punch himself out in his last fight, and likely desperate just to avoid getting knocked out early in another fight, it will be interesting to see if Moraes comes into this match with a more patient game plan designed around preserving his cardio while remaining defensively sound. Yadong is a patient fighter himself, so he’s unlikely to force Moraes into an uptempo brawl. Therefore it would make sense to see Moraes’ cardio hold up better than in past fights where he gassed out against cardio machines in Merab Dvalishvili and Cory Sandhagen who are constantly looking to push the pace. Everyone will be expecting Moraes to fall apart after the first round, which is fair considering he hasn’t seen the third round since 2019, but it would be surprising if he didn’t try to address that in his camp. Yadong’s last five fights and seven of his last eight have made it past the first round, with four of his last five going the distance. His calculated striking style rarely results in first round finishes, and this looks like a good matchup for Moraes to stay in the fight a bit longer than he has in his last three matches. Of some concern, he spent nearly two weeks in a Thai hospital in the middle of January as he recovered from COVID, which certainly doesn’t boost your confidence in his cardio, but he’s had 6-7 weeks to work on it since then as he’s been training out at Tiger Muay Thai. The switch in camps adds some uncertainty to how he’ll look, but that’s just all the more reason to think we could see a slightly different version of Moraes here. We don’t expect him to suddenly be a cardio warrior, but if he can avoid gassing out early, we could at least see him remain competitive past the first round. He remains a dangerous striker with lethal kicks, so Yadong will need to respect the power coming back his way. We still like Yadong to control the later rounds, if the fight gets there, and expect him to win with either a mid to late round knockout or in a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Yadong Wins by Decision” at +400.
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DFS Implications:
After starting his UFC career off hot with three finishes in the first two rounds in his first four fights, Yadong has now failed to top 92 DraftKings points in his last five fights. That 92 point score occurred in his recent R2 KO win, and he had fought to four straight lower scoring decisions leading up to that. As a patient striker with no takedowns in his last six fights, Yadong is reliant on landing well timed finishes to score well, and he showed in his last fight he can still struggle to put up a big score even with a second round knockout. Two of his earlier career finishes still scored “just” 103 and 104 DraftKings points, so at his elevated price tag it’s tougher to be confident that even if he does get a finish it will be enough to get him into tournament winning lineups. This does appear to be a favorable matchup for Yadong to get a knockout, as Moraes has been knocked out in three straight fights and four of his last five, but he’ll still likely need it to either come in the first round or with multiple knockdowns to end up in tournament winning lineups at his price tag. The odds imply he has a 70% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Moraes has really struggled lately, as he’s been knocked out in his last three and four of his last five fights. His only win in the last three years came in a low-volume split-decision against Jose Aldo in December 2019. While he put up big scores in his earlier three UFC finishes, he looks like a hail mary R1 or bust play in a tough matchup against an opponent who’s only been finished once in his career and zero times in his last 15 fights. The best thing Moraes has going for him is that he’ll be a low owned leverage play in tournaments. Even at his ultra cheap price tag, he’s unlikely to return value in a decision win, as he scored just 55 and 59 DraftKings points in his previous two decision wins. The one way he could surprise us and still score well without a finish would be if he comes in with a grappling heavy gameplan and grinds out a decision win on the mat, but it’s hard to see his cardio allowing him to do that. While he is a BJJ black belt, we’ve only seen him land five takedowns on 12 attempts in 10 UFC fights. The odds imply Moraes has a 30% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Magomed Ankalaev
9th UFC Fight (7-1)Extending his winning streak seven, Ankalaev is coming off a pair of decision wins against top ten ranked Light Heavyweights in Nikita Krylov and Volkan Oezdemir. In his recent win over Oezdemir, Ankalaev patiently outlanded his way to victory, while tacking on a knockdown in round one and a takedown in round two. He finished ahead 66-48 in significant strikes, while landing 1 of his 4 takedown attempts with a 1:45 of control time.
Just prior to that victory, Ankalaev won another decision, that time against a tough Nikita Krylov. Ankalaev bounced back from a slightly shaky first round to win the later two rounds and win a unanimous 29-28 decision. Amazingly, the first round against Krylov is the only round in his eight fight UFC career that he has lost on the score cards. He did get submitted in the last second of his UFC debut against Paul Craig, which is the only other time he’s been bested in his 18 rounds of UFC action over eight fights.
In addition to being the first fighter to steal a round from Ankalaev, Krylov was also notably the only fighter to ever take Ankalaev down in his last seven fights. However, he still only landed one of his six attempts. The two fighters appeared somewhat evenly matched in their well rounded skill sets, so it’s not surprising that it went the distance. After getting taken down once in the first round, Ankalaev bounced back with three takedowns of his own and nearly six minutes of control time in the later two rounds as he methodically took back the lead to secure the victory. Krylov actually finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 47-43, but Ankalaev led in total strikes 89-58, while also leading in takedowns 3-1 and in control time 5:59-1:44. It was a pretty cut and dry decision and Ankalaev clearly knew what he needed to do to win.
Ankalaev is a violent yet patient striker, and prior to his recent pair of decision wins he landed back-to-back R1 KO/TKO victories against Ion Cutelaba. The reason they ran it back is that the ref stopped the first match way too quickly after he thought Cutelaba was out on his feet. However, there was little to be left to interpretation in the rematch, as Ankalaev violently dropped Cutelaba late in the first round and then bounced his head off the canvas a couple times for good measure.
Now 15-1 as a pro, Ankalaev’s only career loss occurred in his 2018 UFC debut against Paul Craig, who threw up a hail mary Triangle Choke to steal the fight with literally 1 second left in the fight. Ankalaev had been dominating Craig for the entire match, outlanding him 59-18 in significant strikes and exerting heavy top pressure with nearly seven minutes of control time. Craig was able to land two takedowns on seven attempts, but Ankalaev landed a pair of reversals, showcasing his strong defensive wrestling. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling and also holds the title of Master of Sports in Combat Sambo, so he’s no slouch on the ground. He has eight wins by KO, and seven by decision, but has never submitted anybody. Six of his knockouts occurred in the first round, while his two finishes outside of the first round were a R3 highlight reel KO against Dalcha Lungiambula and a 2016 R4 KO over Maxim Grishin before either guy joined the UFC roster. Despite how dangerous of a KO threat he is, four of his last six and five of his eight UFC fights have made it to the third round, with three of those going the distance.
Ankalaev bounced back from the demoralizing loss in his UFC debut by easily knocking out an extremely hittable Marcin Prachnio in the first round of his next fight. He then faced a submission specialist in Klidson Abreu and Ankalaev badly broke Abreu’s nose in the middle of the first round—to the point that the broadcast was joking about him now being able to sniff around corners—but Abreu was somehow able to survive to lose a decision. Ankalaev defended all five of Abreu’s takedown attempts as he went on to easily win a decision.
Then just before his ongoing feud with Cutelaba began, Ankalaev knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula in the third round with a head-bobbling straight kick to the chin followed by a stiff right hand just to be sure. Despite that fight lasting ten and half minutes, Lungiambula landed just six significant strikes to Ankalaev’s 44 and went 0 for 2 on takedowns, while Ankalaev went 1 for 3.
Ankalaev has gone 6 for 19 on takedowns in his four wins to make it out of the first round, with at least one landed and three attempted in each of those matches. The only time we didn’t see him attempt any takedowns in a fight that lasted longer than five minutes was against submission specialist Paul Craig in his debut, which makes total sense. So in general, expect him to mix in his grappling in fights where he doesn’t land a quick knockout.
Thiago Santos
23rd UFC Fight (14-8)Barely hanging onto his job, Santos squeaked out a unanimous 48-47 five-round decision win over Johnny Walker to avoid a four fight losing streak on the final fight of his UFC contract. At 38 years old, you have to wonder if Santos would have been re-signed had he not won the last round of his last fight to take the decision. He hasn’t been the same since returning from double-knee surgery after tearing his ACL, MCL, PCL and meniscus in his left knee and the meniscus in the other in his 2019 split-decision loss to Jon Jones. Following those surgeries in 2019, we didn’t see Santos inside of the Octagon again for 16 months as he recovered. He finally returned in November 2020 to face Glover Teixeira in a fight scheduled to go five rounds.
In that fight, Santos was taken down four times on seven attempts by Teixeira and assaulted with violent ground and pound. While the significant striking totals were close, with Teixeira leading just 46-40, the total strikes were far more lopsided at 148-81. Teixeira also accrued nine minutes of control time before ending the fight early in the third round. The fight actually started off well for Santos as he landed several heavy shots in the first round and was able to knockdown Teixeira. However, as Teixeira often does, he survived and was able to get Santos down just 90 seconds into the match after getting rocked. Teixeira was also quickly able to take the fight back to the ground soon after the second round started, and Santos’ takedown defense looked nonexistent. Glover nearly choked Santos out at the end of the second round but Santos was saved by the bell. Santos actually dropped Teixeira again at the start of the third round and was landing heavy strikes from top position. But again, 90 seconds into the round Teixeira dug deep and used his old man strength to push Santos off and reverse the position, while absorbing leather thumping punishment to his dome. Santos looked exhausted at that point and Teixeira was able to quickly take his back and submit him. For the record, Teixeira has a career 39% takedown accuracy and Santos has a career 66% takedown defense.
Following that loss, Santos took on Aleksandar Rakic in a three-round snoozer. Santos and Rakic both approached that fight very cautiously and spent the majority of the match trading kicks from distance. It was surprising that Rakic didn’t even attempt a takedown until late in the third round considering he had just dominated Anthony Smith on the ground for three rounds and Santos was coming off a smothering loss to Teixeira where he spent most of the fight on his back. However, Santos was able to keep the fight standing and actually finished ahead in significant strikes 49-36 and 61-50 in total strikes. It seemed like one of those fights where so little happened it’s hard to even judge who won, but all three judges gave it to Rakic. One judge gave Rakic all three rounds, including the third where Santos finished ahead 23-7 in significant strikes and 28-12 in total strikes. But regardless of who the decision went to, the biggest takeaway was that both guys respected the power of the other so much that they never really attempted to take any risks. Santos only landed 3.27 SS/min in the fight, while Rakic landed an anemic 2.40/min. We did see Rakic accrue two and half minutes of control time against the fence, but the other 12 and half minutes all played out in open space.
Despite the loss in the three-round staring contest against Rakic, Santos was given another opportunity to headline a card when he took on Johnny Walker in a five-round match most recently. That fight essentially played out as an extension of the Rakic matchup, with five more rounds of total inaction. After five excruciatingly painful rounds where the eyes of the viewers suffered more damage than either fighter, Walker slightly led in striking 48-44. However Santos had the more impactful moments in the match even if they were few and far between. Neither fighter landed more than 11 significant strikes in any round, and Santos failed on the only takedown attempt in the match. There wasn’t even a single second of control time to blame for any of the inactivity. That match was easily in contention for worst fight of the year in 2021 and it’s only real competition was Santos’ previous fight.
A BJJ and Muay Thai black belt, Santos won four in a row prior to the Jones fight, including a 2019 R3 KO of the current Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz. Three of those wins ended in KOs as have 15 of his 22 career victories. He also has one submission win, but it came all the way back in 2011. His other six wins all ended in decisions. It’s been over three years and several knee surgeries since he knocked anyone out. Six of his nine career losses have also come early, with three KOs and three submissions. He has, however, gone the distance in three of his last four fights. The last time he was knocked out was in 2018, when he was still fighting down at Middleweight. All three of his career KO losses came in the first round (2012, 2016 & 2018), as did two of his three submission losses (2013 & 2016). The only time he’s ever been finished beyond the first round was in the 2020 R3 submission loss to Glover Teixeira.
Santos fought at 185 lb until 2018, when he moved up to 205 lb and took on Eryk Anders and has stayed at 205 lb since. He won his first three fights at 205 lb, all by KO (R3, R2, R3), but then lost his next three with a pair of decisions and a third round submission. Now 38 years old, with two surgically repaired knees and coming off three straight losses, Santos is still a powerful striker, but he’s clearly lost a step. And despite being known for his power, Santos’ last eight fights have all made it out of the first round, with seven of those seeing the third round and four going the distance, including two that went the full five rounds.
Five of Santos’ last seven fights have been scheduled to go five rounds. While he’s gone 3-2 in those five matches with a pair of third round KO wins, he’s lost two of his last three five-round fights and just barely won his most recent by a razor thin margin of error in a decision. All five of those matches have either ended in the third round (2-1) or gone the distance (1-1), and both of the knockouts came prior to his knee surgeries.
Fight Prediction:
Ankalaev will have a 1” height advantage, but Santos will have a 1” reach advantage. Ankalaev is 9 years younger than the 38-year-old Santos.
The UFC mercifully awarded Santos a new contract after he publically begged for it along with more money in front of his pregnant wife following the narrow decision victory over Walker, and you have to feel for the guy. At the same time, his best fighting days are clearly behind him and at this point he’s just keeping the spot warm as the #5 ranked Light Heavyweight. While he theoretically still has one punch knockout power, he hasn’t knocked anyone out since February 2019, prior to his surgeries. Now he squares off against an incredibly tough opponent who’s never been knocked out in a spot that couldn’t get much tougher for Santos. The chances of him winning this fight are miniscule and the real debate is about whether or not we see another 25 minute staring contest or if Ankalaev finishes him. Santos has shown the uncanny ability to slow fights down to a snail’s pace and Ankalaev is a patient counter striker, so stylistically there certainly appears to be a good chance that Santos continues to feint fight his way to another decision. With that said, Ankalaev will likely look to mix in some wrestling and if he gets Santos down he could pound him out on the mat where Santos would no longer be able to evade. Ankalaev is also fully capable of landing a fight-ending bomb at any moment on the feet to close the show. Just keep in mind he may not get a ton of opportunities so he’ll need to make them count. Considering this will be Ankalaev first five-round fight in the UFC and he’s already a patient fighter who’s going against an opponent who appears to be miming fighting more than actually engaging, it would make sense for this one to start slower, and if we do get a finish it would likely come in the later rounds. Based on Santos’ eight straight rounds of inaction, it’s hard not to think this fight goes the distance, but it’s also challenging to see a monster like Ankalaev get locked in a cage with someone for 25 minutes and not witness a casualty. That makes this an uncomfortable spot to predict the exact outcome, but we expect Ankalaev to win with either a late knockout or in a decision and think the latter is actually more likely.
Our favorite bet here is “Ankalaev R4, R5 or Decision” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Ankalaev is an extremely dangerous striker and will also mix in occasional wrestling, with at least three takedown attempts in all four of his UFC wins to make it past the first round. While he hasn’t been a guy that can score well in three-round decision wins, this will be his first five-round UFC fight, so we’ve yet to see how he can score in a five-round decision victory. If we extend the pace from his three previous three-round decision wins over the course of five rounds, he would have put up DK/FD scores of 108/116, 117/93, and 104/80. Just keep in mind this will be his first five round fight in the UFC, and we’ve yet to see how that will affect his pace. He did have two fights scheduled to go five-rounds earlier in his career, one in 2016 that ended in a fourth round KO win and then another in his next fight, which ended in a 2017 first round KO victory. His four UFC finishes have resulted in DK/FD totals of 119/137, 118/105, 97/94, and 105/119. If we look at all of those numbers together, that would be good for a theoretical average of 110 points on DraftKings and 106 points on FanDuel, with a scoring range of 97-119 DraftKings points and 80-137 on FanDuel. So he has a wider range of outcomes on FanDuel, and will more often struggle to return value there in a decision.
The only two times Ankalaev has topped 105 DraftKings points so far in his career both came in first round knockouts. One of those included two knockdowns and scored 119 points, while the other was awarded the Quick Win Bonus and scored 118 points. Outside of those two outlier outcomes, he’s struggled to put up slate breaking scores, largely due to a lack of volume. That presents a real problem in tournaments when he’s the most expensive fighter on the slate. Simply putting up a “good” score as he did in his other two early wins will likely not be enough to land him in tournament winning lineups. That leaves him reliant on doing something spectacular to end up in the winning lineup, such as winning in the first 60 seconds or landing a first round KO with 2+ knockdowns. And while it’s theoretically possible he could maintain or even outperform his normal striking and grappling pace for five rounds and still score decently in a decision, this certainly doesn’t appear to be the matchup to do it in. Santos only absorbs an average of 2.28 SS/min and has a decent 66% takedown defense. In the two five-round decisions Santos has been to, his opponents landed just 48 and 59 significant strikes respectively, while failing to land any takedowns. We also amazingly saw a combined zero seconds of control time in those 10 rounds. So needless to say, we’ve yet to see anyone score well in a five-round decision that Santos is part of. Overall, Ankalaev is a massive favorite for a reason and the bookmakers expect this fight to end early more often than not, giving Ankalaev a solid chance to still put up a good score. That makes him a fine low-risk play with a decent floor, but he’s less appealing than your typical main event favorite when it comes to tournaments. The odds imply he has an 82% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
After seeing Santos do essentially nothing for eight straight excruciating rounds, we expect the field to be incredibly low on Santos here. While that does present a theoretically solid leverage opportunity, we’re not convinced that Santos has much left in the tank at this stage in his career. Since returning from double-knee surgery in 2020, Santos has averaged just 2.57 SSL/min, while failing to land either of his two takedown attempts. He’s also only absorbed 2.51 SS/min and seems content with watching the clock run out while minimizing any damage incurred or inflicted. He’s still a powerful striker which leaves open the possibility that he could land the perfect shot and score a knockout, but those opportunities are few and far between and now he faces a much younger 15-1 opponent who’s never been knocked out and simply looks all around better. Santos scored just 48 DraftKings points in his recent five-round decision win over Johnny Walker and just 17 points in his five-round decision loss to Jon Jones in 2019. Even at his cheap price tag he’s reliant on landing a finish to return value, and this is far from a favorable matchup to see that happen. The odds imply Santos has an 18% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in the first round.
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