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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Nikolas Motta
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)These two had actually been scheduled to make their UFC debuts against one another in September 2021, but the fight was canceled when VanCamp wasn’t medically cleared. Since then, they both got knocked out in their respective debuts and now this fight got put back together almost exactly a year later.
Motta is coming off a R2 KO loss to Jim Miller after winning a decision on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC. Following his win on DWCS, Motta had been scheduled to make his UFC debut at three different points but all three matches got canceled and he ended up having to sit on the sidelines for 15 months. Motta went on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil back in 2015 when he was just 22 years old, but was submitted in the second round of his second fight and was relegated back to the regional scene. He’s since trained out of Toms River, NJ with guys like Frankie Edgar, so he’s been working with very experienced fighters.
In Motta’s last fight, he took on a grappler in Jim Miller, but Miller was content relying on his striking and actually finished the fight with no official takedown attempts. Following a slower paced first round, Miller was able to drop Motta in round two and put him away with prolonged ground and pound as referee Keith Peterson finished his popcorn. In the end, Miller outlanded Motta 48-21 in significant strikes.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Motta has eight wins by KO and four decisions. He’s been finished in all four of his losses, with his last three ending in knockouts after he was submitted in the first loss of his career. All four of those losses have ended in under seven minutes. While two of his last three fights have gone the distance, six of his last eight have ended in knockouts. Six of his knockout victories have occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and the last came in round three. He’s impressively the only person to ever finish tough UFC fighter Joe Solecki, who he knocked out in the third round of a 2018 match. After starting his pro career at 145 lb when he was just 18 years old, Motta moved up to 155 lb in 2015 when he went on TUF Brazil.
Overall, Motta is a one-dimensional striker who has solid power in his strikes. We’ve yet to see him attempt a takedown in any of his recent fights and he doesn’t appear to offer anything in terms of grappling. He’s generally very patient with his striking and relies on damage more than volume in his fights.
Cameron VanCamp
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After dropping out of his originally booked UFC debut against Motta at 155 lb, VanCamp returned to 170 lb where he had been fighting and made his short notice debut eight months later against Andre Fialho instead. Prior to losing his UFC debut he had won four straight fights, with the last three ending early.
In his last fight, VanCamp actually looked like he hurt Fialho a minute and a half into the fight, but VanCamp foolishly never attempted a takedown and his hands by his side approach to fighting eventually caught up to him as Fialho recovered and caught him with a clean left hook to the chin that immediately ended the fight. The match was stopped midway through round one with VanCamp ahead in striking 19-17 and no takedowns attempts.
Now 15-6 as a pro, VanCamp has four wins by KO, nine by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has three decision losses. His last four fights have ended early, with his last three ending in round one. VanCamp started his career at 155 lb and even fought down at 145 lb once, but has been fighting mostly at 170 lb since 2016. In his career, he’s gone 8-2 at 170 lb, 1-0 at 165 lb, 0-1 at 160 lb, 5-3-1 with another loss overturned to a NC at 155 lb, and 1-0 at 145 lb. He's notably lost 3 of his last 4 fights at 155 lb (2018, 2017 and 2016), although two of those came against fighters who went on to join the UFC in Austin Hubbard and Thomas Gifford.
Overall, VanCamp is a wildman in the cage as he’ll brawl on the feet with little regard for his own chin and also throws up all sorts of submissions on the mat. The majority of his finishes have come by submission and he loves to go for rear-naked chokes or throw up triangles off his back. Nine of his 13 career finishes have come in the first round with his most recent two taking a combined 131 seconds. Only two of his 15 career wins have come beyond the second round and those were his only two decision victories. He won four straight prior to losing his short notice UFC debut.
Considering VanCamp is moving down a weight class it will be essential to monitor him closely at weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
VanCamp will have a massive 5” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
VanCamp’s reckless style makes for exciting fights for as long as they last, as he’s entirely focussed on mounting offense. Motta is a much more patient striker, but has a ton of power in his hands and we just saw VanCamp get violently knocked out in his last fight. With Vancamp dropping down to 155 lb for the first time since 2018, there’s some additional uncertainty in play here, as the weight cut could further compromise his chin. It’s also possible the cut will go fine and he’ll simply have a massive size advantage, so it increases the potential range of outcomes. VanCamp should have a major advantage on the ground if he can get Motta down, but we said the same thing going into VanCamp’s last fight and he never even attempted a takedown against a one dimensional power puncher. Maybe he learned his lesson or maybe he’s just a complete idiot with a terrible fight IQ, but only time will tell. Both guys in this matchup have been prone to getting finished and good at landing finishes of their own, so we’d be surprised to see this go the distance. We could see either guy finishing the other, but we’ll say Motta lands a first round knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Doesn't Start R3” at -128.
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DFS Implications:
Motta is a one-dimensional striker who doesn’t land enough volume to score well in a decision but has landed knockouts in 8 of his 12 pro wins, with six of those coming in the first round. He’s not the biggest guy and actually started his career down at 145 lb when he was just 18 years old before moving up to 155 lb, but he does have heavy hands and the last time he knocked an opponent out the guy had to be carted off on a stretcher after he remained out cold for an extended period of time. Motta won’t add anything in the grappling department and doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, so at his expensive price tag it is possible for him to land a knockout and still get priced out of the winning lineup depending on what the other high priced fighters do. With VanCamp coming down a weight class, there’s some additional uncertainty here and overall it looks like a higher variance spot than the odds suggest. Treat Motta as a boom or bust fighter who will likely either get finished or land a finish of his own. The odds imply Motta has a 63% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
VanCamp’s grip-it-and-rip-it approach to fighting was made for DFS as he’s not a good fighter, but he is a fun one. He’ll mix in a combination of striking and grappling and pushes forward with little regard for his own chin a lot of the time. There’s always a chance that he dials it back a little after getting knocked out in his UFC debut, but that’s a risk we have to take with any fighter coming off a knockout. He could also look to grapple more after failing to attempt a takedown in that fight, so it goes both ways when it comes to predicting his scoring potential. Motta has been finished in all four of his losses, and if Vancamp can land something clean he has the potential to break the slate at his dirt cheap price tag. After losing his debut at 170 lb, he’ll now be moving down to 155 lb for this fight. While that means he’ll have a massive size advantage, nothing’s free in life and we could see his chin pay the price of the weight cut as is often the case. VanCamp is the ultimate boom of bust tournament play with a 0-130 point potential range of scoring outcomes. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Javid Basharat
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Still undefeated, Basharat is coming off his first career trip to the judges in his UFC debut win over Trevin Jones. Prior to that, Basharat had landed 11 straight finishes, including a 2021 R3 submission win on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC. In his win on DWCS, Basharat controlled his opponent on the mat for the majority of the fight and finished with three takedowns on five attempts and 10 minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over 14 minutes. He nearly got a finish in the first round and opened his opponent up early, but then slowed down some in round two in terms of his output. He ultimately got the finish late in round three from a mounted guillotine choke, in a completely one sided dominating performance.
In his last fight, Basharat patiently picked Trevin Jones apart on the feet from the outside and never looked to take the fight to the ground. He appeared focussed on remaining defensively sound as he stayed light on his feet and didn’t overcommit to his attacks. His tactical approach may not have made for the most exciting fight, but it was highly effective and Jones never had an answer for it. Basharat cruised to a unanimous decision win, as he led in striking in all three rounds, finishing ahead 89-62 in strikes, while also defending all three of Jones’ takedown attempts.
Now 12-0 as a pro, Basharat has five wins by TKO, six by submission, and one decision. All five of his TKO wins occurred in round one, as have two of his submission victories. He also has two second round submission wins and one in round three. His last two finishes came by submission in the later rounds. After eight of his first nine pro wins ended in the first round, his last three have all seen the second round, with his last two making it to round three.
Overall, Basharat offers a diverse skill set and certainly doesn’t lack confidence. He’s light on his feet and has good movement to avoid taking unnecessary damage and is dangerous both on the mat and feet. He has a Taekwondo background, which is evident when you see him throw kicks, but he mixes in a combination of striking and grappling and likes to look for chokes on the mat. He has a solid takedown defense and hasn’t been taken down in any of his last four fights on six attempts. However, he’s also never faced a wrestler like Tony Gravely.
Tony Gravely
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Fresh off a first round knockout victory, Gravely has won two straight and four of his last five. He’s 11-2 in his last 13 fights, with one of those two losses coming a R3 submission against a really tough Brett Johns in Gravely’s 2020 UFC debut and the other in a R2 TKO against Nate Maness in a fight Gravely nearly landed a late knockout of his own. In his second most recent win, Gravely landed a career best 11 takedowns, but there were several moments where it looked like Gravely was moments away from getting submitted and Oliveira finished with four official submission attempts and looked for a guillotine choke every chance he got, but Gravely did a good job of defending them and finished with 11:28 in control time while landing 11 of his 15 takedown attempts.
His last fight ended so quickly that it's hard to take too much away from it, as Gravely landed a knockout just 68 seconds into the first round. Gravely never even had to attempt a takedown in the fight and finished Johnny Munoz with an amazingly short right hand as Munoz shot for his first takedown. Gravely finished ahead 5-2 in significant strikes and 6-2 in total strikes.
Now 23-7 as a pro, Gravely has 10 wins by KO, three by submission, and 10 decisions. Twelve of his last 14 fights have ended early and he won both the decisions he went to over that stretch. However, eight of his last nine fights have seen the second round. He’s been finished in six of his seven losses, with one TKO and five submissions. The only decision loss he’s ever suffered came against Merab Dvalishvili in 2016 before they each joined the UFC.
Overall, Gravely has a celebrated wrestling background in both high school and college, and has trained with the Virginia Tech wrestling team in the past. He’s more of a threat to land finishes through ground and pound than submissions. He’s landed 28 takedowns on 51 attempts in his six UFC fights and averages an impressive 6.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He also has powerful striking and is overall a dangerous finisher. While he only has a 52% takedown defense, only Brett Johns has ever landed more than one takedown against Gravely.
Fight Prediction:
Basharat will have a 4” height advantage, but both fighters share a 69” reach.
This is a really interesting matchup, as it’s the first time Gravely has been an underdog since his UFC debut, and even that fight was essentially a coin flip (Gravely +100). Basharat has looked defensively sound and we’ve yet to see him get taken down in his last four fights, so he at least appears to be equipped to deal with the wrestling-heavy attack of Gravely. With that said, this will be the toughest opponent Basharat has ever faced, so it’s hard to know just how well his defensive wrestling will hold up. Gravely has been prone to getting submitted in his career with five submission losses on his record, but only one of those occurred in his last 13 fights, so it appears he’s improved his submission defense. He does find himself frequently defending guillotine attempts, and Basharat has two wins by guillotine on his record among his overall six submission wins. So Gravely will need to protect his neck in this matchup or else he could find himself getting choked out.
Both guys are good strikers, but Basharat is lighter on his feet and is tougher to hit, which will make it tougher for Gravely to land many clean shots in the striking exchanges, but he does have knockout power. However, in a pure striking battle we expect Basharat to land more volume and get his hand raised in a decision. That leaves Gravely reliant on either landing a knockout or finding a good amount of wrestling success to pull off the upset. While both of these two are proven finishers who rarely require the judges, Basharat will need to be wary of Gravely’s wrestling which has the potential to slow the fight down. That increases the chances of this going the distance and the outcome in a decision would hinge on how many takedowns Gravely is able to land. We also wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a late finish considering 92% of Basharat’s career wins have come early, as have 86% of Gravely’s losses (and 57% of his wins). We don’t have a strong take here, but we’ll say Basharat wins a dicey decision.
Our favorite bet here is Basharat’s ML at -165.
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DFS Implications:
Basharat scored just 66 DraftKings points in a decision win in his recent UFC debut. That fight remained entirely on the feet, but Basharat typically mixes in some grappling. Whether or not he’ll be looking to take down a wrestler like Gravely is a fair question to ask. We expect Basharat would rather keep this fight standing, which will leave him reliant on landing a finish to score well. There’s also a chance he could get taken down and find a submission off his back, which could still result in him being priced out of the winning lineup, especially on DraftKings. To really score well, he likely needs to become the second fighter to ever knock Gravely out. Another interesting dynamic in DFS is that Gravely projects to be the most popular underdog on the slate, so if Basharat does win, he makes for a very interesting tournament leverage play. Eleven of Basharat’s 12 career wins have come early, so he clearly has finishing upside and Gravely has been finished in 6 of his 7 career losses, with five of those ending in submissions. The odds imply Basharat has a 60% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Gravely has been a DFS scoring machine, averaging 120 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins. He landed a combined 22 takedowns in the first three of those victories, before landing a 68 second R1 KO in the most recent. Both of his UFC losses have also come early, so overall he’s been involved in high scoring fights every time he steps inside the Octagon. Just keep in mind, the field is aware of this and we’ve seen Gravely’s ownership continue to climb as he ended up being 38% and 34% owned in his last two fights. He was priced as the favorite in both of those matches, but is now priced at just $7,600 on DraftKings, and will unquestionably be highly owned. While he has a massive scoring ceiling, this looks like a really tough matchup for him, which when combined with his elevated ownership has us far less excited than normal about playing him in tournaments. It’s obviously a scary fade, and if he goes off you’ll be drawing dead in lines that don’t have him, but there’s a lot of leverage to be gained by being underweight on Gravely here. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Gillian Robertson
13Xth UFC Fight (7-5)Robertson had originally been scheduled to face Melissa Gatto in this spot, but Gatto withdrew and Agapova was announced as the replacement in early August with plenty of time to prepare.
Desperate for a win here, Robertson is coming off a decision loss to J.J. Aldrich and has now lost three of her last four matches after starting off 6-2 in the UFC. All five of her UFC losses have come against tough opponents in Mayra Bueno Silva, Maycee Barber, Taila Santos, Miranda Maverick, and J.J. Aldrich. The first two of those ended in the first round, while the last three went the distance. Six of her seven UFC wins have also come early, with two ending in round one, three in round two, and one in round three. All but one of those finishes came by submission, while she also has one TKO by elbows on her record.
In her last fight, Robertson had a really tough matchup for her style of fighting as she went up against the 75% takedown defense of J.J. Aldrich. Robertson was only able to take Aldrich down once on six attempts and finished with just 24 seconds of control time. Aldrich was able to patiently outstrike Robertson on the feet and finish ahead in significant strikes 60-52 and in total strikes 76-67. Robertson notably stepped into that fight on pretty short notice, so she didn’t have a ton of time to prepare.
Now 10-7 as a pro, Robertson has one win by KO, seven submissions, and two decision victories. She’s been knocked out once (2019 R1 by Maycee Barber), submitted once (2018 R1 by Mayra Bueno Silva), and has lost five decisions. Her two pre-UFC decision losses also came against fighters who are now in the UFC, in Hannah Goldy in Robertson’s 2016 pro debut and Cynthia Calvillo in 2016. The loss against Goldy came at 115 lb and the loss to Calvillo was at a 120 lb Catchweight. Robertson fought mostly at 115 lb before joining the UFC, but she moved up to 125 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017 and has stayed there since.
Overall, Robertson is a solid technical grappler, but doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of striking and can be overpowered on the mat by stronger opponents. She’s shown the ability to make the most of her one-dimensional grappling skillset and has generally capitalized when put in favorable matchups. Robertson has landed 18 takedowns on 44 attempts (40.9% accuracy) in her 12 UFC fights, landing at least one takedown in 10 of those fights and two or more in six of them, but never more than three in a single fight. She lost both of the fights where she failed to land a takedown.
Mariya Agapova
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Looking to back from a second round submission loss to Maryna Moroz, Agapova has now lost both of her UFC fights where she was taken down and won both of her fights where she wasn’t. She also lost a wrestling-heavy decision on DWCS, and we’ve seen a consistent trend where she struggles against grapplers, or even non-grapplers like Shana Dobson who can beat her up on the ground. She’s been finished on the mat in two of her last three fights, while landing finishes of her own in her other two UFC matches. She’s only been to one decision in her last eight fights, which was when she lost to Tracy Cortez on DWCS in 2019.
In her last fight, Agapova got pushed up against the cage for an extended period of time early on and then taken down midway through the first round. Maryna Moroz then immediately took her back and began looking for a rear-naked choke. She looked like she had it locked in, but Agapova was able to survive and reverse the position. However, Moroz immediately looked for an armbar at that point but ended up with Agapova on her back for a brief period of time before regaining control before the round ended. Moroz immediately worked to return the fight to the ground in round two as Agapova faded, and after a brief period with the two spent along the fence, Moroz landed the takedown. Moroz slowly worked her way to top position and began landing ground and pound before finishing the fight with an arm triangle. The fight ended with Moroz ahead in significant strikes 28-16, while Agapova led in total strikes 72-51. Moroz landed two of her five takedown attempts, with three official submission attempts and 6:43 in control time.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Agapova has three wins by KO, five by submission and two decisions. She has one loss by TKO, one by submission, and one decision defeat, with all three losses coming on the mat.
Overall, Agapova is a wiry kickboxer who has the ability to submit opponents but has terrible defensive grappling and cardio. She’s a complete head case who’s been accused of all types of outlandish debauchery by past teammates and seems like the type of person to pull a knife on you after asking for directions. She has struggled mightily against all of the grapplers she has faced, but can throw flurries of strikes on the feet to find finishes in striking battles. She’s been taken down 8 times on 14 attempts by her opponents (42.9% defense) and has lost every fight where her back has hit the mat.
Fight Prediction:
Agapova will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
It’s become quite evident that you always want to bet against Agapova when she faces a grappler, as is the case here. While she’s a dangerous striker with good length for the division, she has just a 42% takedown defense and terrible cardio and grappling defense. This looks like a great matchup for Robertson to get back on track and we like her to land a submission in the first two rounds, more likely in round two after Agapova gasses out.
Our favorite bet here is “Robertson R1 or R2 Sub” at +230.
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DFS Implications:
Robertson has scored at least 92 DraftKings points in all seven of her UFC wins, with totals of 117, 94, 92, 110, 106, 97, and 98. After really struggling in her previous two matches as she lost back-to-back decisions, she bounced back with a career best performance in her last win when she submitted Priscila Cachoeira in the final second of the first round. That was good for 117 DraftKings points in an obvious great spot against an opponent who’s helpless on the mat. After losing a tough matchup in her last fight, now Robertson faces another favorable matchup against an opponent in Agapova who really struggles both on the mat and with her cardio. This is a great opportunity for Robertson to get the fight to the ground and dominate on her way to a finish in the first two rounds. The odds imply she has a 59% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Both of Agapova’s UFC wins have come early, as have 8 of her overall 10 career victories. After completely gassing out after the first round against Shana Dobson, she did a much better job of managing her cardio in her second most recent fight. A big part of why she was able to do that is it came against another one-dimensional striker and no takedowns were attempted. She won’t be afforded that luxury in this matchup, which will leave her reliant on landing a finish in the first round before Robertson can get the fight to the mat. The odds imply she has a 41% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Daniel Zellhuber
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut a year after he won a decision over a tough Lucas Almeida on DWCS, the now 23-year-old Zellhuber is still undefeated as a pro. He’s now training out of Xtreme Couture in Vegas, after growing up in Mexico City, where he previously had been training at elevation. Prior to his win on DWCS, Zellhuber had landed five straight finishes, with his last three all ending in round one.
In his last fight, we saw a high paced first round, with Zellhuber’s opponent, Lucas Almeida, coming out of the gates firing—landing 52 significant strikes in the first round alone. However, Zellhuber was able to absorb the punishment and bounce back in the later rounds as Almeida slowed down. Zellhuber landed a takedown early in round two and Almeida didn’t look very good off his back, but was able to return to his feet a minute later. Zellhuber did a better job of controlling the distance and utilizing his length as Almeida slowed down in the back half of the fight. After trailing 52-38 in significant strikes in round one, Zellhuber finished the fight ahead 115-96 in significant strikes and 121-118 in total strikes, while landing one of his two takedown attempts and finishing ahead in control time 2:51-0:24. He lost the first round on all three scorecards, but won both of the later rounds to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. That was the first time Almeida had ever lost a fight or been to a decision after starting his career 12-0 and the performance was impressive enough that the UFC still eventually brought him on after Almeida landed one more finish on the regional scene. Almeida showed he was legit when he handed UFC veteran Michael Trizano his first KO loss in Almeida’s UFC debut, making the DWCS win all that more impressive for Zellhuber.
Now 12-0 as a pro, Zellhuber has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Both of his submission wins occurred in the first round, as did three of his KO victories. Three more of his knockouts occurred in round two, with the other ending in round three. His last three finishes have all come in the first round.
Overall, Zellhuber is a tall, rangy fighter who’s a solid striker with dangerous kicks and also likes to look for leg locks on the mat. While he can typically rely on his striking to get opponents out of there, he’s also a BJJ black belt and is a well rounded fighter who can win fights both on the ground and the feet. He puts up big striking numbers, while mixing in takedown attempts and also has a solid takedown defense.
Trey Ogden
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Ogden is looking to bounce back from a split-decision loss in his recent UFC debut against Jordan Leavitt, in a fight Ogden took on just 17 days’ notice. Prior to that, Ogden had landed three straight submission wins, and all 20 of his career wins have ended in either submissions (11-3) or decisions (4-2).
In his last fight, Ogden slipped midway through round one and found himself on his back with Leavitt on top. He nearly locked up a guillotine choke late in the first round, however, Leavitt survived as time expired. Ogden faded in the later rounds, landing only 16 significant strikes in round two and eight in round three. Leavitt went 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts in the fight, while Ogden went 1 for 4. Leavitt spammed leg kicks for basically the entire fight, with 52 of his 69 significant strikes landed coming by leg strike. Ogden didn’t really have an answer for the kicks and finished behind in significant strikes 69-41, but ahead in totals strikes 130-124. Ogden landed one of his four takedown attempts, while stuffing all three of Leavitt’s attempts. Leavitt finished ahead in control time 5:17-2:02, but Ogden did have two official submission attempts.
Now 15-5 as a pro, Ogden has 11 submission wins and four decision victories. He’s also been submitted three times and has two decision losses. Two of his three submission losses came by R1 guillotine against a suspect Thomas Gifford, who went on to go 0-2 in the UFC. His other submission loss was a 2019 R1 rear-naked choke. No one has ever been knocked out in any of his fights, but we generally see someone get submitted. Five of Ogden’s last seven finishes have come in the later rounds, with four ending in round two. Only three of his last 12 fights have required the judges and four of his last five ended in submissions in nine minutes or less. Three of his last four losses have come by R1 submission.
Overall, Ogden is a one-dimensional grappler who failed to impress in his UFC debut. He trains with James Krause at Glory MMA & Fitness and he’s a BJJ black belt who consistently looks to get fights to the mat and finish with submissions. He’s already 32 years old, so we don’t expect him to suddenly make major improvements to his striking and he looks like the type of guy that will be able to capitalize on the mat against low-level, one-dimensional strikers but will struggle against more legitimate, well-rounded competition and superior grapplers.
Fight Prediction:
Zellhuber will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. He’s also nine years younger than the 32-year-old Ogden.
This sets up as a brutally tough matchup for Ogden against a promising young prospect in Daniel Zellhuber. Ogden will be reliant on landing a submission to win as he has no chance of competing on the feet. Both guys are BJJ black belts, so it’s not like Ogden will have some massive grappling advantage either. While Ogden has never been knocked out, he hasn’t faced the toughest competition and there’s a good chance that Zellhuber hands him the first KO loss of his career here. Ogden has also been prone to getting submitted, so Zellhuber could also take that route to finish him. While it’s not impossible that Ogden finds a submission win of his own, it is unlikely, and we like Zellhuber to win this fight early.
Our favorite bet here is “Zellhuber R1 or R2” at +140.
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DFS Implications:
Zellhuber is an intriguing young undefeated prospect with a well-rounded game and is a dangerous finisher with 75% of his finishes coming early. He’s making his UFC debut a year after a 2021 decision win on DWCS, which on the surface could make for a higher variance spot, but he’s still just 23 years old and has talked about how he’s been improving his game over the last year. Nevertheless, you never know how fighters will react to their UFC debuts, and he said in a recent interview that all he cares about is winning. He’s not hunting for bonuses and if a boring fight is what it takes to win then he’s fine with that. While that’s somewhat concerning when it comes to DFS and betting props, he’s still a high-volume striker, with decent grappling, and a history of landing finishes. Now he’ll face a one-dimensional grappler, who’s been submitted in the first round in three of his last four losses and this looks like a good spot for Zellhuber to find another finish. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Ogden’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting and history of submissions presents scoring upside, but this looks like a really tough matchup for him. Both guys are BJJ black belts, but the undefeated Zellhuber is bigger, stronger, and a light years ahead in striking. The UFC definitely wasn’t doing Ogden any favors with this matchup, so don’t get confused by the fact that he’s taking on a UFC newcomer. Ogden’s only hope will be that Zellhuber struggles with the pressure of making his UFC debut at a young age and Ogden can lock up a submission. We don’t see Ogden having a chance on the feet and he’s unlikely to simply grind out a decision on the mat. The odds have moved heavily in Zellhuber’s favor, further supporting the notion that Ogden is unlikely to win this fight. The odds imply Ogden has a 26% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Loma Lookboonmee
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from a wrestling-heavy decision loss against a really tough Lupita Godinez, Lookboonmee had originally been scheduled to face Diana Belbita, but she dropped out and Gomes filled in on short notice. Prior to her recent loss, Lookboonmee had won a pair of decisions against Sam Hughes and Jinh Yu Frey. She notably landed four takedowns on eight attempts against Hughes, after only landing two takedowns in her first three UFC fights combined.
In Lookboonmee’s last fight, Loopy Godinez took her down 5 times on 12 takedown attempts and finished with seven and a half minutes of control time. We didn’t see many significant strikes landed, with Godinez leading just 23-15 in significant strikes and Lookboonmee ahead in total strikes 72-64. Lookboonmee was able to land one of her two takedown attempts, but the wrestling of Godinez was too much for her.
Now 6-3 as a pro, Lookboonmee has one TKO win (2018 R2) and five decision wins. She’s never been knocked out, but she has been submitted once and has two decision losses. She’s fought to six straight decisions and her fights to end early both came in her first three pro fights before she joined the UFC. A former Atomweight (105 lb), Lookboonmee only moved up to Strawweight (115 lb) when she joined the UFC in 2019 and she’s been slowly growing into the weight class.
Overall, Lookboonmee is a crisp striker and a former Muay Thai champion and is actually the first Thai fighter to join the UFC. She’s been working on rounding out her game since joining the UFC and she does a good job of using trips to land takedowns. At 5’1” Lookboonmee is a little undersized, but she did say that she added 9 lb of weight between her first and second UFC fights as she continued to try and grow into the 115 lb division. Nevertheless, she’ll still be at a height disadvantage against almost all of her opponents.
Denise Gomes
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Three and a half weeks removed from a decision win on DWCS, Gomes is making a quick turnaround as she steps into her UFC debut on short notice after Diana Belbita dropped out. Prior to the decision win, Gomes landed a pair of third round TKO wins in her two previous matches. However, she was losing her second most recent fight up until the third round and actually got knocked down twice in round two by former UFC fighter Milana Dudieva, who has lost six of her last seven fights and isn’t an exceptional striker.
In her last fight, Gomes started slow but turned it on in the later rounds as she got more aggressive as the fight went on. She mixed in a ton of leg kicks, landing 40 in the fight, while also spamming wheel kicks that she never landed. Gomes finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 103-55 and in total strikes 106-55. She didn’t attempt any takedowns, but was able to defend three of the four takedowns attempted against her.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Gomes has four wins by KO and two decision victories. Her only career loss came in a 2017 R2 TKO in her pro debut and she’s rattled off six straight wins since then. Her last two TKO wins both came in round three, after her first two ends in the first two rounds. Her last four fights have made it to round three and the only fight of her career to end in round one was her first pro win back in 2021 against an opponent fighting for the first and only time as a pro. Gomes made her pro debut at 135 lb in 2017, but after suffering her only career loss in a R2 knockout she dropped down to 125 lb for her next two fights. She then moved down to 115 lb for a fight in 2021, before moving back up to 125 lb for her next two matches and dropping back down to 115 lb when she went on DWCS. She’ll now be making her UFC debut at 115 lb. Both of her 115 lb fights have ended in decisions, while all three of her KO/TKO wins occurred up at 125 lb.
Overall, Gomes is basically a one-dimensional striker with a Muay Thai background. Her last couple of fights have come against grapplers and she hasn’t faced any high-level strikers that we’ve seen as a pro. Gomes is Karol Rosa’s partner, which is likely what got her on the UFC’s radar as they love to bring spouses and siblings of current fighters into the organization. While Gomes is fairly aggressive, we haven’t been overly impressed by her skills, but she will throw down in a brawl. While she’s spent most of her career at 125 lb, she hasn’t looked especially powerful at 115 lb, with both of her Strawweight fights going the distance. To her credit, she does look like the type of fighter that will contribute to exciting fights, we’re just not confident in her ability to win those matches against legitimate UFC level talent.
Fight Prediction:
Gomes will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while Lookboonmee is four years older than the 22-year-old Gomes.
This looks like the best spot Lookboonmee has been in since she joined the UFC, as she faces a 22-year-old pure striker who won’t be looking to take her down, and who will be making her short notice UFC debut just a few weeks after last fighting. You really couldn’t ask for much more. We expect Lookboonmee to piece Gomes up on the feet and take her down and lead in the grappling exchanges as well. While Lookboonmee almost always fights to decisions, if she was ever going to land a finish, this might be the time. The idea that people are betting Gomes here is pure insanity and we love Lookboonmee to get the win. Clearly the most likely outcome is for her to win a decision, but we wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility for her to find a finish, most likely in a second round KO.
Our favorite bet here is Lookboonmee’s ML at -205.
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DFS Implications:
Lookboonmee has yet to top 91 DraftKings points and only totalled 65 and 78 points in her other two wins. All five of her UFC fights have gone the distance, but she was able to land four takedowns in her last win and score a career best 91 points, despite being controlled for six and a half minutes by Sam Hughes in that fight. Now she’ll face an opponent who is a pure striker and shouldn’t be looking to grapple, which should allow Lookboonmee to really hit her ceiling. Her opponent here is also making her short notice UFC debut just a few weeks after fighting on DWCS, which all bodes well for Lookboonmee. We saw Gomes get dropped twice in her second most recent fight and she was on her way to losing badly before her opponent gassed out. With no big scores under her belt and the line moving against her, Lookboonmee will be very low owned at her expensive price tag, and she looks like a great pivot in tournaments with tournament winning upside. While the most likely outcome is still for her to win a decision and fail to return value at her expensive price, she has the potential to put up a big score either with a surprise finish or through a combination of striking and grappling in a high-volume brawl. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Gomes was able to land 103 significant strikes in her recent decision win on DWCS, but that still would have scored just 72 DraftKings points and 82 points on FanDuel. She doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling and honestly isn’t that good of a striker. She probably wouldn’t be getting a shot in the UFC if she wasn’t Karol Rosa’s girlfriend, but they always love to give spouses and siblings of current fighters a shot. While we’re not impressed by her skillset, Gomes is an aggressive fighter who will push forward and drive up the pace, which is great for DFS, and she should at least help to drive up the scoring for the fights she’s part of. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Trevin Giles
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Making his second appearance at 170 lb, Giles has been knocked out in back-to-back fights after never getting knocked out in his first 16 pro bouts. His previous two UFC losses both ended in third round guillotines, and seven of his nine UFC fights have ended early (3-4). However, two of his last three wins ended in decisions, and his last four victories all made it to the third round. Prior to the recent pair of losses, Giles had won three straight fights, with decision victories over Roman Dolidze and James Krause and a third round TKO win over Bevon Lewis. Just keep in mind, the decision over Krause was split and Krause took the fight on one day’s notice and fought up a weight class as he was originally at the event to corner Youssef Zalal. Bevon Lewis is longer in the UFC and Roman Dolidze was dropping down to 185 lb for the first time and looked terrible.
In his last fight, Giles caught UFC newcomer Michael Morales early in the fight with an early right hand and then took him down. However, Morales was able to reverse the position on the mat and shift the momentum. The two returned to their feet and the action slowed for a moment, until Morales caught Giles lunging in and then continued to assault him with punches until the ref stopped the fight. The match ended with Morales ahead 26-8 in significant strikes and 28-8 in total strikes, while Giles landed 1 of his 4 takedown attempts.
Now 14-4 as a pro, Giles has six wins by KO, five by submission, and three decisions. He’s been finished in all four of his losses, with two KOs and two submissions. Both of his submission losses came by R3 guillotine choke, while both of his KO losses came in the opening round and a half. After spending almost his entire career at 185 lb, and even taking a fight all the way up at 205 lb (in his UFC debut), Giles moved down to 170 lb for his last match and suffered the first R1 KO loss of his career. Despite the poor result, he’ll stay at 170 lb for this next match. Prior to his recent first round loss, Giles had seen the second round in 11 straight fights, with eight of those making it to round three, but just three going the distance.
Overall, Giles is a methodical striker who only averages 3.09 SSL/min and likes to keep his hands really low. He’ll mix in occasional takedown attempts, but after landing all five of his attempts in his UFC debut, he’s only landed four of his last nine attempts in his most recent eight fights, failing to land more than one takedown in any of those matches. With that said, he does have a solid 64.3% takedown accuracy. On the other side of things, he’s only been taken down 7 times on 29 attempts (75.9% defense) by his opponents and no one has ever gotten him down more than twice. Giles infamously fainted just before a fight against Kevin Holland in August of 2020 and was rushed to the hospital instead of fighting. His heart had stopped multiple times at the hospital while he was under observation, but he appears to have made it past the health scare. His new health scare is his chin, which after looking solid earlier in his career has now failed him in two straight matches. He’ll now face a third straight finisher, so it should get tested early once again.
Louis Cosce
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After dropping out of a fight earlier this year when he tested positive for COVID, Cosce is now 22 months removed from a demoralizing loss in his November 2020 UFC debut as he dealt with multiple surgeries and then moved to Vegas. Prior to the loss in his debut, he had never lost a fight or even seen the second round, but he had also been facing a lot of dubious competition.
In Cosce’s last fight, Palatnikov narrowly survived the initial blitz from Cosce, who gassed himself out trying to finish the fight in his normal timeframe and looked exhausted by the end of the first round. Palatnikov was able to capitalize on his compromised opponent and eventually landed a third round KO by attrition against the exhausted Cosce. Palatnikov did show the ability to throw lots of volume as he outlanded Cosce 125-99 in significant strikes. He also landed his only takedown attempt and defended 8 of Cosce’s 9 attempts—just keep in mind most of those were exhausted desperation shots.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Cosce has five wins by KO and two by submission, with all seven of those finishes coming in the first round, including six of them in 79 seconds or less. His only career loss occurred in the R3 TKO loss in his UFC debut and he’s still never required the judges. His last four fights have all ended in knockouts. Cosce made his pro debut at 155 lb before moving up to 170 lb in his second pro fight.
Overall, Cosce is a raw brawler who’s trying to learn on the job. He showed bad cardio in his debut, but maybe we can chalk that up to a learning experience as it was the first time he’s ever been past the first round. He talked about how sloppy his performance was and at least seems self aware enough to make adjustments going into his second UFC appearance. He has a wrestling background and is a BJJ brown belt, and now trains at Syndicate MMA, so he should be improving everyday and after nearly two years away it’s hard to know what improvements he’s made. In a recent interview he talked about how he has better wrestling and jiu-jitsu than Giles and he also thinks he can knock him out. He also said, “I’m not going to rush anything,” so we’ll see how much more of a measured approach he comes in with.
Fight Prediction:
Giles will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
After gassing out and getting finished in his UFC debut, we’re expecting to see a more measured version of Louis Cosce here, but you never know how fighters will react once they get under the bright lights. And on the other side of things, Giles could be more focussed on remaining defensively sound after getting knocked out in back-to-back fights and perhaps hoping Cosce will gas himself out again. It will also be interesting to see how Giles’ chin holds up in his second appearance at 170 lb, after it failed the initial test at the new weight class. These two are somewhat similar in several ways, as they both keep their hands low, can wrestle some, have some cardio concerns, and are coming off knockout losses. However, Giles has far more experience, and has actually been pretty adept at finding late finishes, with his last five finishes coming in the later rounds. This fight really comes down to what gives out first, Giles’ chin or Cosce’ cardio, which is a tough question to answer. What we will say is that the longer this fight goes the better Giles will be looking if history is any indicator. So we like Cosce’s chances of finding an early finish and Giles chances of getting it done late. We’ll give the slight edge to Giles based on his experience, but this is a super dicey spot.
Our favorite bet here is “Giles R3” at +1200.
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DFS Implications:
Giles has failed to top 92 DraftKings points in his last eight fights and is coming off of back-to-back early KO losses and moved down to 170 lb for his last fight. None of that bodes well for a guy priced towards the top of the food chain in DFS, but this matchup does present scoring upside if we see Cosce gas out again like he did in his UFC debut nearly two years ago. However, it will be interesting to see if we get Rodolfo’d here. For those unfamiliar with the term, that’s when you have a fighter with terrible cardio who’s known for selling out early for finishes, who all of a sudden refuses to engage with their opponent in a fight in an attempt to preserve their cardio. We saw that with Yohan Lainesse last week, and not to let recency bias dictate our decision making, but it would make sense for Cosce to pace himself after showing a half round of cardio in his last match. If that does end up happening, Giles will be more dependent on finding an early finish, as he lacks the striking and grappling stats to return value with a late finish or in a decision in a slower paced affair. So overall this is a higher variance spot as Cosce has been away for so long that we don’t really know how exactly he’ll approach the fight. Giles’ once durable chin appears to have abandoned him, leaving him with a non-existent floor, but he can be had at low ownership, which does keep him in the tournament play discussion. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in round one.
Cosce has never won a fight that lasted longer than five minutes, but he’s also only been in one of those. He was able to rely on his athleticism and power to finish low level opponents on the regional scene and will need to adjust his game to the UFC if he wants to stick around for long. Both he and his brother are known for their questionable cardio, which generally leaves them reliant on finding early finishes to score well. Working in Cosce’s favor, Giles has been finished in all four of his career losses and has been knocked out in back-to-back fights. Cosce talked about how he could end up wrestling more here, which could boost his scoring, but also has the potential to drain his cardio even faster. Maybe he’s made major improvements over his two years away, but we won’t know that until after this fight. We’re still treating him as an early finish or bust play until he proves otherwise. Hopefully he doesn’t come in shell shocked with an ultra tentative game plan focussed on preserving his cardio, but there’s always a chance that happens. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Pat Sabatini
5th UFC Fight (4-0)Entering this matchup on a six fight winning streak, Sabatini’s only loss in his last 10 fights was due to a freak arm injury in 2020. His last two and three of his four UFC fights have gone the distance, with the other ending in a 2021 R1 heel hook submission over Jamall Emmers. Prior to joining the UFC, Sabatini had seen four straight fights end in the opening round and a half.
In his last fight, Sabatini got taken down by TJ Laramie a minute into the first round, but immediately started looking for submissions off his back before returning to his feet. He then landed a takedown of his own, but wasn’t able to do anything with it and the fight returned to the feet. In the final minute of the round, Sabatini landed a heavy body kick that bent Laramie in two and looked like it could be the beginning of the end. However, Sabatini got a little too eager rushing in to find a finish on the feet and Laramie took him down, although at that point Sabatini went for an unsuccessful guillotine. Sabatini immediately looked to get the fight back to the mat in round two, but couldn’t hold Laramie there. However, he continued to pressure Laramie and eventually got him down and controlled him for the remainder of the round. It was much of the same in round three as Sabatini continued to take Laramie down and control him as he ground out a dominant and unanimous 30-26 decision on the ground. The fight ended with Sabatini ahead 36-15 in significant strikes and 124-22 in total strikes. Sabatini landed 6 of his 10 takedowns with eight minutes of control time, while Laramie went 1 for 4 on his attempts with four minutes of control time.
Now 17-3 as a pro, Sabatini has two wins by knockout (R2 2018 & R1 2020), 10 wins by submission, and five decision victories. The only time he’s ever been “finished” was in his 2020 freak arm injury TKO 46 seconds into the first round. His other two losses both went the distance, with a 2015 decision in his third pro fight and a 2018 split decision. Twelve of his 17 career wins have come early, with 10 submissions and two KOs. All of those finishes occurred in the first two rounds and all of his fights to last longer than 10 minutes have gone the distance. Six of those submissions were by rear-naked choke, while he also has three heel hooks and an armbar. Six of Sabatini’s 10 submission wins have come in the first round, but four of his last six have ended in round two.
Overall, Sabatini is a BJJ black belt and former D1 wrestler. He notably submitted current UFC fighter Tony Gravely back in 2015 in the first round and has shown he can hang with UFC level wrestlers. In his four UFC fights, he’s landed 12 takedowns on 27 attempts (44.4% accuracy), with over 29 minutes of control time. He’s been taken down three times on six attempts by his opponents (50% defense) and controlled for a little over six and a half minutes. He’s been largely focussed on controlling his opponents opposed to aggressively pushing for finishes since joining the UFC, but he had been a prolific finisher prior to joining the organization. We don’t see much striking volume in his fights, as he’s averaged just 1.69 SSL/min and 1.30 SSA/min. He’s yet to absorb more than 19 significant strikes in a UFC fight or land more than 36, but he’s controlled his opponents for 62% of the time.
Damon Jackson
9th UFC Fight (4-2-1, NC)Coming off a somewhat dicey decision win over UFC newcomer Dan Argueta, who was making his debut up a weight class, Jackson entered as a prohibitive -700 favorite, but you wouldn’t have known that by watching the fight. While he did win a unanimous decision, he faded in the back half of the match and relied entirely on control time to get his hand raised.
Jackson originally joined the UFC in 2014 and did everything but win in his first three fights, notching a 0-1-1, NC record before getting cut following a 2016 draw. After getting dropped by the organization, Jackson fought 10 times outside of the UFC from 2016 to 2020, going 8-2 before getting called back up. His two losses over that period both came by KO, while the majority of his wins were by submission, including five rear-naked chokes. Making his return to the organization in September 2020, nearly five years after being released, Jackson pulled off the short notice upset in a comeback win against Mirsad Bektic. In a fight he was losing badly, Jackson landed a R3 guillotine to steal the victory and notch his first UFC win. He then got knocked out by Ilia Topuria in the first round of a December 2020 fight, but bounced back with three straight wins, including a decision over Charles Rosa, a second round submission of Kamuela Kirk, and then his recent decision victory over Argueta. All of those UFC wins came against questionable competition.
In his fight, Jackson immediately looked to get the fight to the ground, which ended up being the theme of the fight. He was able to control Argueta for over eight minutes in the first two rounds, but Argueta escaped late in round two and began putting it on Jackson. Argueta continued to lead the dance early in round three and looked like he could finish Jackson, but then Jackson was able to win a scramble late in the round and finish in top position to hang on to win a decision.
Now 21-4-1 as a pro, Jackson has three wins by KO, 15 by submission, and three decisions. He’s been finished in all four of his career losses, with three KOs and one submission. He would have two submission losses, but a 2015 R1 submission defeat was later overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for a banned diuretic. His only official submission loss curiously came against a striker in Yancy Medeiros, in Jackson’s 2014 UFC debut. Twelve of his last 14 fights have ended early and he’s only been to four decisions in 27 pro fights. He’s won five of his last six fights, with his only loss since 2019 coming against Ilia Topuria. Jackson started his career at 155 lb before dropping down to 145 lb in 2013.
Overall, Jackson is primarily a submission threat but has shown some improvements to his striking. He’s known for his cardio and does a good job of wearing down his opponents, although his cardio failed him in his last fight. His biggest weakness has been his chin and his last three losses have all ended in knockouts, with the last two ending in round one. Jackson has landed 13 takedowns on 34 attempts (38.2% accuracy) in his eight UFC fights, while getting taken down 12 times on 20 attempts (40% defense) by his opponents. This will be a big step up for him in competition, so it will be interesting to see how he handles it.
Fight Prediction:
Jackson will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Sabatini is three years younger than the 34-year-old Jackson.
This sets up a wrestling match between two solid grapplers. Of course that sometimes results in a wrestling stalemate that turns into more of a striking battle than expected, but we’re not really expecting that here. We think Sabatini will come in looking to prove that he’s the better wrestler and won’t hesitate to try and get this fight to the ground. He will need to be mindful of his head position, as Jackson has a solid guillotine that he used to submit Mirsad Bektic in his 2020 return to the UFC, but we trust that Sabatini will be a technician in the grappling exchanges. Sabatini looks like the better wrestler and we like him to win this fight, either in a decision or by submission in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is Sabatini’s ML at -180.
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DFS Implications:
Sabatini is a BJJ black belt and former D1 wrestler who’s only required the judges in 5 of his 17 career wins, with 10 submission victories and two KOs. All 12 of his finishes have occurred in the first two rounds and his decisions end in grappling-heavy wrestling matches. That makes him a much safer play on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. While he’s shown a solid floor and still managed to put up DraftKings scores of 106 and 105 in his last two decision wins, we haven’t seen any slate-breaking scores out of him, which makes it a little tougher to know what to do with him at his high price tag as he faces another solid wrestler. While he was very popular in his last fight, he does project to go low owned in tournaments here, which makes him an interesting pivot off of the other high priced fighters. Jackson only has a 40% career takedown defense and we expect Sabatini to find success getting this fight to the mat. However, Jackson is a good wrestler, which adds some uncertainty to the mix when it comes to the grappling exchanges. Because of that, this is a higher variance spot and Sabatini has a lower floor than normal, but still a solid ceiling. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Jackson is a tough guy to figure out. He seems to fight to the level of his competition to a large extent and he’s been inconsistent over the years. After failing to top 58 DraftKings points in his first four UFC fights, he put on smothering wrestling performances in his last three matches and returned DraftKings scores of 80, 107, and 113. However, those all came against a lower level of competition and now Jackson faces a significantly tougher test. Two of Jackson’s last three wins have gone the distance, and it’s tougher to see him controlling Sabatini on the mat for three rounds. Sabatini also has never truly been finished in his career, with his lone TKO loss coming from a freak arm injury where he dislocated his elbow in the opening minute of a fight. Working in Jackson’s favor, he’s 3-0-1 in decisions in his career, and at his cheap price tag he wouldn’t need a huge score to serve as a play. So if he can either land a submission or squeak out a grappling-heavy decision win, he has the potential to be useful here. Just keep in mind, we still like Sabatini to win this fight. The odds imply Jackson has a 36% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Anthony Hernandez
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Hernandez is coming off a dominant wrestling-heavy decision win over Josh Fremd, who was making his UFC debut on just 11 days’ notice. Hernandez has only been to one other decision in his 12 fight career, which was a 2018 five-round LFA title fight against Brendan Allen that Hernandez won. Hernandez has now won two in a row and three of his last four after getting submitted in the second round of his 2019 UFC debut. He took off 14 months prior to his recent win after pulling off the crazy submission upset win over Rodolfo Vieira in February 2021.
In his last fight, Hernandez came in looking to grapple early and often as he landed four takedowns in the first round alone. He pushed a crazy grappling pace that Fremd couldn’t keep up with, lending eight takedowns in the fight on 11 attempts with 10:45 in control time and three official submission attempts. He also led in significant strikes 48-31 and in total strikes 91-43.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Hernandez has one win by KO, six by submission, and two decisions. His two career losses both came early, with a 2020 R1 TKO against Kevin Holland and a 2019 R2 submission against Markus Perez. Nine of his 11 pro fights have ended early, and that doesn't even include his R1 KO win over Jordan Wright on DWCS that was overturned to a No Contest when he tested positive for pot. Hernandez has only seen the third round twice in his career, with both of those fights ending in decision wins.
Overall, Hernandez relies largely on his grappling, but isn’t helpless on the feet either. He averages a respectable 4.26 SSL/min while absorbing 3.93/min. He also lands 5.4 takedowns per 15 minutes (2nd most on the slate). While he failed to attempt a takedown in three of his five UFC matches, he landed 14 on 20 attempts (70% accuracy) in his other two fights. He’s also been taken down six times himself, but has a 66% defense.
Marc-Andre Barriault
9th UFC Fight (3-4, NC)After suffering the first early loss of his career when he got knocked out by Chidi Njokuani this past February, Barriault bounced back with a first round submission win over Jordan Wright just two months later in April, in a fight he accepted on just 10 days’ notice. He’s now won three of his last four fights, and it would be four of his last five if one of those hadn’t been overturned to a No Contest.
In his last fight, Barriault got taken down twice by Jordan Wright but locked up a guillotine choke as Wright took him to the ground for the final time and quickly forced a tap to notch his first career submission win. Prior to the finish, Barriault pushed forward before getting turned around and taken down along the cage. He did a decent job of fighting off Wright’s initial takedown attempt, but Wright persisted and eventually got it to the mat. However, Barriault did a good job of returning to his fight and not accepting the position. The fight ended with Barriault ahead in significant strikes 13-12 and in total strikes 17-16, while Wright landed two of his four takedown attempts.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Barriault has nine wins by KO, one by submission, and four decisions. Four of his five losses have gone the distance, with the other ending in a R1 KO. While his last two fights have both ended in the first round, his first six UFC fights all made it to the second round, with five seeing a third round and four going the distance.
Barriault typically relies on his striking and cardio to win fights, and seems to enjoy working out of the clinch. He averages 5.79 SSL/min and 5.04 SSA/min and will occasionally land a takedown. On the other side of things, Barriault has been taken down 12 times on 38 attempts (68.4% defense) in his eight UFC fights. However, only Jun Yong Park was able to take him down more than twice and he’s never been submitted.
Fight Prediction:
Barriault will have a 1” height advantage, but Hernandez will have a 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as an uptempo scrap between two fighters that have each won three of their last four fights. While Barriault has historically relied almost entirely on his striking to win fights, he is coming off a guillotine win that should make Hernandez have to think a little before he just blindly spams takedowns. Neither of these two have immense knockout power, so if we don’t see it end in a submission then it will likely go the distance. Barriault has never been submitted in his career, and is known for his cardio, so Hernandez won’t get any freebies here like he did against Vieira, who essentially died of exhaustion in their fight. After taking on a short notice UFC newcomer in his last match following a wild upset win over Vieira, Hernandez is probably being slightly overvalued by both the field and the books here, and we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that he started off 1-2 in the UFC with both losses coming in six under six and a half minutes. He will push the space with his grappling, but that strategy is most effective against opponents with suspect cardio, which does not describe Barriault at all. The outcome here will likely hinge on how Barriault’s 68% takedown defense holds up. If Hernandez can get him down easily then he should be able to grind out a decision win on the mat. However, Barriault is good at returning to his feet and Hernandez will have a tougher time controlling him on the ground. So while that could result in a huge takedown number for Hernandez, it could also result in limited control time if Barriault can avoid getting chain wrestled to the mat. That could limit the effectiveness of Hernandez’s grappling and allow Barriault to outland his way to victory on the feet, as he’s the busier striker. We actually kind of like Barriault to pull off the upset here, most likely in a decision, but with a chance he finds a late finish.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +116.
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DFS Implications:
Hernandez has been a bipolar DFS producer, with DraftKings scores of 117, 94, 0, 135, and 9 in his five UFC fights. His grappling-heavy approach to fighting is perfectly suited to the DraftKings scoring system. He landed a career best eight takedowns in his last fight, just keep in mind that came against a UFC newcomer who took the fight on short notice and it was a great spot for Hernandez to put up a career performance. Now he’ll take on a UFC veteran who should put up much more resistance to being taken down and controlled on the mat. That’s not to say Hernandez can’t again find a good amount of wrestling success, but it certainly won’t be automatic. Only one opponent has been able to take Barriault down more than twice, which was Junyong Park who landed 5 takedowns on 10 attempts in Barriault’s third UFC fight. However, Park finished that fight with just three and a half minutes of control time and put up DK/FD scores of 93/96. While that’s not bad by any means, at Hernandez’s higher price tag it still likely wouldn’t be enough for him to end up in tournament winning lineups. Barriault’s ability to return to his feet does have the potential to increase the number of takedown opportunities Hernandez gets, even if it does limit his control time potential, so it still makes sense to have a healthy amount of exposure here. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Barriault is coming off the only submission win of his career, and also his only first round finish in the UFC. He scored 101 DraftKings points with that guillotine finish and is now averaging 104 DraftKings points in his three UFC victories. He also had a second round KO win overturned to a No Contest when he failed a drug test, but he would have scored 118 DraftKings points in that victory. So overall he’s been a solid DFS producer when he wins and now he can be had at an underdog price. There would likely be more buzz surrounding him if he hadn’t been knocked out in 16 seconds by Chidi Njokuani in his second most recent right, but that’s great for DFS as we can get him at lower ownership. Working against him in this matchup is that he’ll be facing a grappler who will be looking to take him down throughout the fight, making it tougher for Barriault to put up a big striking total and score well in a decision. That leaves him more reliant on finding a finish here to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Tanner Boser
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Fifteen months removed from a second round KO win over Ovince St. Preux, Boser’s last three scheduled fights have all been canceled. Prior to his win over the career Light Heavyweight St. Preux, Boser lost back-to-back close/questionable decisions against Ilir Latifi and Andrei Arlovski. Leading up to those losses he had landed a pair of knockouts and his last three wins have all ended in the first two rounds.
In Boser’s last fight, St. Preux had actually been preparing to fight down at Light Heavyweight against Maxim Grishin, but Grishin withdrew and Boser offered to step in if the fight was moved to Heavyweight and St. Preux agreed. St. Preux showed up at 230 lb, while Boser was 10 lb heavier at 240 lb. Boser took the lead from the start, outlanding St. Preux 25-8 in strikes in round one. The second round started the same way the first round ended with Boser controlling things on the feet. However, St. Preux was then able to get the fight to the ground. After a minute of controlling Boser on the mat, a controversial moment occurred as Boser appeared to grab the fence to pull himself back up. Boser landed a big knee to the head of St. Preux followed by a series of punches to get the finish at that point, but the sequence began with the alleged fence grab. It was actually pretty hard to tell if Boser actually grabbed the fence or simply pushed off of it, but the results are the same either way. The fight ended with Boser ahead 33-9 in significant strikes, while St. Preux landed one of his five takedown attempts with 72 seconds of control time. That win came just three weeks after Boser lost to Latifi.
Now 20-8-1 as a pro, Boser has 11 wins by KO, two by submission, and seven decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2015 six second R1 KO, while his other seven losses all went the distance. Five of Boser’s last seven knockouts have come in round two.
As an undersized Heavyweight, Boser relies on his speed to outmaneuver his typically larger and slower opponents. He’s a pure striker and doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of grappling, but does have a 70% takedown defense and has only been taken down three times on 10 opponent attempts (70% defense). He lands an average amount of volume at 4.23 SSL/min and has failed to top 68 significant strikes landed in his last six fights after landing 93 in his 2019 UFC debut.
Rodrigo Nascimento
4th UFC Fight (1-1, NC)After getting knocked out in 45 seconds by Chris Daukaus in October 2020, Nascimento landed a second round knockout win over a terrible Alan Baudot in July 2021. However, the win was overturned to a No Contest when Nascimento failed a drug test. In the end it seems like a technicality as Nascimento tested positive for Ritalin, something he’s been prescribed to take for years. He’s now been granted a therapeutic use exemption for the medicine and it seems like he finally has it all sorted out. Prior to his loss to Daukaus, Nascimento landed a second round submission win over Don'Tale Mayes in his May 2020 UFC debut.
In Nascimento’s last fight, Baudot actually took an early lead, utilizing his speed and movement to outland Nascimento 50-18 in significant strikes in the first round, while also stuffing all three of Nascimento’s takedown attempts. Even more impressive was that Nascimento controlled Baudot for over half the round against the fence, as Baudot essentially landed 50 significant strikes in half of a round. The tides turned in round two as Nascimento outlanded Baudot 31-10 in the next 89 seconds before finishing him along the fence with punches as Baudot shelled up early in the round. The fight ended with Baudot ahead in significant strikes 60-49 and in total strikes 73-51, while Nascimento went 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts before finding the finish.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Nascimento has two wins by KO and six by submission. His only career loss was the R1 KO against Daukaus. Seven of his fights ended in round one with the other two ending in round two and he’s never been to a third round. The only time he’s ever faced a decent opponent he got knocked out and his record is heavily padded with extremely inexperienced opponents.
Overall, Nascimento is the rare Heavyweight grappler and he hasn’t looked great on the feet, so expect for him to struggle against legitimate competition when he’s unable to get fights to the mat. The fact that he was unable to get Alan Baudot to mat on three attempts is concerning for his outlook moving forward, but considering most Heavyweight struggle mightily off their backs, Nascimento does at least have a clear path to victory when he can land takedowns.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’2” but Nascimento will have a 5” reach advantage.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler battle, which is somewhat rare at Heavyweight. Nascimento has a 40% career takedown accuracy, while Boser has a 70% career defense. We’ve seen Boser get taken down by two fighters in the past and both times he was able to survive and eventually return to his feet. Not that Nascimento is helpless when it comes to striking, but Boser should have a significant advantage on the feet and we like him to eventually knock Nascimento out, most likely in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “Boser R2 KO” at +650.
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DFS Implications:
Boser has averaged just 96 DraftKings points in his three UFC knockout wins and scored just 67 points in his lone decision victory. Only once has he topped 94 points, which unsurprisingly was in his line first round finish. Five of his last seven KO wins have come in round two and he scored just 94 and 87 DraftKings points in his two second round UFC KOs. While that’s not a terrible score, it’s unlikely to be enough to propel him into tournament winning lineups at his expensive price tag, which leaves him reliant on landing a first round knockout or multiple knockdown and a second round knockout here. The fact that he’s going against an opponent who will be looking to grapple could reduce the number of opportunities Boser gets to find the first round finish if he ends up spending time in the clinch or on the mat. With that said, Nascimento has not looked great on the feet and if Boser can connect switch something clean early on he can definitely end the fight in round one. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Nascimento’s grappling heavy style lends itself more to the DraftKings’ scoring system the longer this fight goes, but he’s still never seen a third round and there’s a good chance this fight ends early. Just keep in mind, Boser has never been submitted and has only been knocked out once. While we expect Boser to knock Nascimento out, if Nascimento does pull off the upset it means it likely found a good amount of grappling success and either finished Boser or controlled him for multiple rounds. And at his cheap price tag either of those would likely be enough for him to end up in tournament winning lineups and he scored 95 and 100 DraftKings points in his two previous UFC wins, which both ended early. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Joe Pyfer
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Fresh off a second round TKO win in his second appearance on DWCS, Pyfer originally went on the show in August 2020 but suffered a dislocated elbow as he get slammed by Dustin Stoltzfus late in the first round and had to work his way through recovery and back into a second opportunity. Following the injury, he had a lengthy 14 month recovery process before landing a second round knockout in the CFFC. That was enough to get him a second shot on DWCS and he capitalized on it with a finish.
In his last fight, Pyfer landed a takedown in the opening minute and controlled his opponent for half the round, but was unable to lock up a submission or do much damage. He also got reversed at one point, but soon returned to his feet and the two stood and traded to close out the round. The second round stayed entirely on the feet, with the two fighters exchanging jabs until Pyfer landed a knockdown on a perfect left hook and then finished things with ground and pound. The fight ended with Pyfer ahead 26-11 in striking and 1-0 on takedowns, while leading in control time 2:47-0:37.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Pyfer has six wins by KO, one by submission, and one decision. He has one TKO loss and one by submission (2019 R2 guillotine). His last nine fights have all ended in the first two rounds, with four of his last five ending in round two. All eight of his early wins and both of his losses have come in under eight minutes. Only four of his nine wins have come against opponents with winning records, and he really hasn’t faced much in terms of competition. His submission loss came against a suspect Jhonoven Pati, who has never landed any other submissions in his career and has lost his last three fights since that win.
Overall, Pyfer is a young, green fighter who has good power and decent wrestling. He does a good job of landing takedowns, but hasn’t looked especially dangerous on the mat in the past. He will look for submissions, but hasn’t completed one since 2019 in his fourth pro fight. Just keep in mind, he’s at an age where he should be improving between every fight and he trains with Sean Brady in Philly, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see him look better on the mat here than he has in the past, especially in this dream matchup. He’s also willing to keep fights standing so overall he’s decently well rounded but still needs to work on refining all aspects of his game.
Alen Amedovski
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Still searching for his first UFC win, Amedovski has lost all three of his UFC fights and has to be fighting for his job here. His last two losses ended in just 17 and 64 seconds, after he lost a decision to Krzysztof Jotko in his 2019 UFC debut. He followed that up with a 2019 17 second R1 KO loss to John Phillips, who finished 1-5 in the UFC, and then got submitted in just 64 seconds by Joseph Holmes, who was 0-1 in the UFC coming into that. So the only thing that Amedovski has been good at so far is giving opponents their first UFC win. He took nearly three years off between his last two fights, and has only fought once since 2019. In his 2019 UFC debut, Amedovski took on decision machine Krzysztof Jotko and got dominated for three full rounds. In one of the more pathetic statistical performances you’ll see, Amedovski landed just six total strikes in 15 minutes, while Jotko landed 43 significant strikes and 111 total strikes. Jotko also went 4 for 4 on takedowns and amassed over nine and a half minutes of control time. Amedovski looked completely helpless off his back and seemed a little undersized for the Middleweight division.
In his last fight, tried to be the aggressor as he pushed forward and walked Joseph Holmes up against the cage, but his plan backfired as Holmes caught him coming in with a knee that sat Amedovski down and had him badly hurt. Holmes went in looking for ground and pound to try and find a finish, but Amedovski returned to his feet before Holmes dragged him back to the mat. As Amedovski again tried to return to his feet, Holmes got his arm under his neck and locked up a no-hooks rear-naked choke. The fight ended with Holmes ahead 16-1 in striking, while he landed his only takedown attempt with 21 seconds of control time.
Now 8-3 as a pro, all eight of Amedovski’s wins came by KO prior to joining the UFC. Six of those wins ended in the first round, with the other two ending in round two. The majority of those wins came against opponents with little to no experience. Since joining the UFC, he’s lost a decision, been submitted in the first round once, and knocked out in the first round the other time. Only one of his career fights has lasted longer than nine minutes.
Overall, Amedovski has done nothing to impress us so far in the UFC and showed that he can be dominated both on the mat and the feet. He’s an aging one-dimensional striker who has yet to prove he can compete at the UFC level and has been incredibly inactive over the last few years. The only way he’s ever won a fight was by knockout and he’s helpless off his back. Unless he lands a miracle KO, this should be his final UFC appearance.
UPDATE: Amedovski was the last fighter to weigh in and came in a half pound over the limit.
Fight Prediction:
Pyfer will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage. He’s also nine years younger than the 34-year-old Amedovski.
Despite still being pretty green overall, Pyfer has all the tools needed to make short work of Amedovski. He’s durable, has knockout power, and has decent wrestling. Whether he opts to look for a knockout on the feet or to take the path of least resistance and get Amedovski down to the mat, we don’t see this fight making it past the second round and there’s a good chance it ends in round one. While Pyfer hasn’t looked like much of a submission threat, he will look for submissions on the mat and Amedovski has looked clueless when it comes to his grappling defense. That leaves open the possibility for either a submission or knockout win for Pyfer, but a KO is still the more likely of the two. Regardless, we like Pyfer to finish Amedovski in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Pyfer R1 or R2 Win” at -180.
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DFS Implications:
Pyfer is a young, raw talent who will be making his debut less than two months after a R2 TKO win on DWCS. He checks in as the most expensive DraftKings play we’ve seen in at least the last year at $9,700. It will be interesting to see what effect his high price tag has on his ownership, but on a slate with plenty of value and not many lock button plays at the top, it shouldn’t be too hard to fit him in. While he does a good job of landing takedowns, he hasn’t been the most active fighter on the mat, which lowers his potential to put up a completely slate-breaking score unless he finds a finish in the the first 60 seconds on DraftKings, which is certainly possible considering Amedovski hasn’t made it past the 64 second mark in either of his last two fights. With that said, Pyfer’s last three finishes have all come in round two. His recent R2 TKO win on DWCS would have been good for 105 DraftKings points and 114 points on FanDuel, which is decent, but still in the range where he could get priced out of winning tournament lineups at his high price tag depending on how the rest of the slate goes. Pfyer did say he was flat in that performance and we should expect more from him in the future, but we often see fighters struggle to perform at their best in their UFC debuts so there’s no guarantee we’ll see a peak performance from him here, even in a dream matchup. With that said, he has a really solid floor as long as he doesn’t randomly get knocked out and we fully expect him to find a finish in the first two rounds. The odds imply he has a 79% chance to win, a slate-leading 64% chance to land a finish, and a 40% chance it comes in round one.
Amedovski amazingly has just 9 total DraftKings points combined between his first three UFC fights, which is also the total number of strikes he landed in those matches. He’s done nothing to indicate that he belongs in the UFC to this point in his career, and this should be his last opportunity to try and keep his job. At 34 years old with just one fight in the last three years, it’s hard to see Amedovski making many improvements at this stage in his career, and he’s looked fragile and helpless off his back. He’s also undersized at 185 lb and it looks like the UFC is using him to build up a young up and comer here. All eight of Amedovski’s career wins have come by knockout in nine minutes or less, and he looks reliant on landing a hail-mary KO here if he wants to pull off the massive upset. Pyfer has never actually been knocked out, with his one TKO loss resulting from a freak arm injury, so the chances of Amedovski knocking him out are very low. The odds imply Amedovski has a 21% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Andre Fili
19th UFC Fight (9-8, NC)Fili had been scheduled to face Lando Vannata here, but Vannata dropped out and Algeo was announced as the replacement a month out.
Looking to bounce back from a quick R1 KO TKO loss to Joanderson Brito, Fili has gone just 1-3 plus a No Contest in his last five outings. While his UFC career has been littered with losses, largely due to the fact that he never turns down a fight and has faced incredibly tough competition, he’s still never lost two rights in a row in his career. Six of his eight UFC losses came against Max Holloway, Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, Michael Johnson, Sodiq Yusuff, and Bryce Mitchell. Fili’s second most recent fight went down as a No Contest due to an accidental eye poke, but Fili was absolutely dominating Daniel Pineda before the unfortunate ending and looked moments away from a finish when the fight was stopped in round two, after nearly ending things in round one.
His last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it. Both guys landed some jabs and then Fili got dropped with a big overhand right 30 seconds into the first round and the fight was stopped as Joanderson Brito went to work with ground and pound. The fight ended in 41 seconds with Brito ahead 14-6 in striking with no takedowns attempted in the fight. That was the first time Fili has been finished since suffering a 2016 R2 KO defeat against Yair Rodriguez.
Now 21-9 as a pro, Fili has nine wins by KO, three by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted twice, and has four decision defeats. Eleven of his last 13 fights have made it past the first round. Fili hasn’t submitted anybody since 2012 and his last four finishes have all come by KO. Eleven of his 12 career finishes have occurred in the first two rounds, with seven in round one and four in round two. All three of his early wins in the UFC have come by knockout in six minutes or less, with the last two ending in round one. Prior to his last two fights being stopped early, Fili had gone the distance in 9 of his previous 10 fights, with the one exception being a 2019 first round knockout against Sheymon Moraes.
Overall, Fili is a well rounded fighter with both solid wrestling and striking. He can also seamlessly work out of both the orthodox and southpaw stances, making him a tough guy to prepare for overall. He doesn’t land a ton of striking volume (3.82 SSL/min) and has actually only led in significant strikes in 4 of his last 13 matches, but part of that can be attributed to the fact that he mixes in a good amount of wrestling as he averages 2.5 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Fili has a 50% career takedown accuracy and a 68% defense, but those numbers have actually risen some in his last 10 fights, where he’s landed 20 takedowns on 36 attempts (55.6% accuracy), while only getting taken down 8 times on 36 attempts (77.8% defense). The only opponent to get him down in his last eight fights was Bryce Mitchell, who landed 7 of his 13 attempts. In fairness, five of Fili’s last seven opponents didn’t attempt a takedown, while Daniel Pineda went 0 for 7 on his attempts.
Bill Algeo
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Coming off consecutive wins and his first early finish since 2019, Algeo had alternated wins and losses for seven straight fights leading up to his last match, where he forced a second round TKO stoppage against an exhausted and injured Herbert Burns. Algeo had fought to six straight decisions leading up to that finish. Algeo had been scheduled to face Billy Quarantillo in that last fight, but he withdrew, as did Burns’ opponent, so the UFC naturally paired the two remaining 145ers against one another with eight days to adjust for the change. After losing a decision in his UFC debut against Ricardo Lamas, Algeo has now won three of his last four fights, with decision wins over cardiovascularly challenged fighters in Spike Carlyle and Joanderson Brito. In between those victories, Algeo lost a decision to Ricardo Ramos.
In his last fight, Algeo came dangerously close to getting submitted early in the first round, as Burns landed a quick takedown and then looked to have a triangle nearly locked up on the mat. Burns also threatened armbars and was landing elbows to Algeo’s head, but Algeo was eventually able to escape and end up in top position. Algeo began landing nonstop ground and pound as Burns quickly looked to be fading after the fast start. Algeo eventually returned to his feet late in the round and made Burns stand back up, although he barely looked capable of standing at that point. As Algeo engaged, Burns embraced him and tried to drag him back to the mat but ended up on his back with 20 seconds left in the round, which is how the round ended. Burns was coming off ACL surgery and complained about his knee in between rounds, and the ref even brought in the doctor to make sure he could continue before the second round began. The fight was allowed to continue, but Burns clearly had little left to offer. He did at least try to take Algeo down to start the round, but again found himself on his back instead. After landing some ground and pound, Algeo again voluntarily returned to his feet as Burns looked for submissions off his back. Algeo told Burns to stand up and when he couldn’t the fight was stopped. It was later revealed that Burns had reinjured his knee that he just had surgery on. The fight ended with Algeo ahead 28-10 in significant strikes and 81-18 in total strikes. Algeo landed his only takedown and led in control time 5:26-0:32, while Burns went one for two on his attempts.
Now 16-6 as a pro, Algeo has four wins by KO, six by submission, and six decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and also has four decision losses. After his first two pro fights ended in first round submissions in 2012 (1-1), 19 of his last 20 matches have seen the second round, including his most recent 15 fights. Seven of his 10 finishes have occurred in the second round and his last five fights to end early (4-1) all ended in round two.
Overall, Algeo is a cocky BJJ black belt who relies on outlasting his opponents. All five of his UFC opponents have taken him down at least once, with three of them landing four or more takedowns. In total, Algeo has been taken down 23 times on 51 attempts in his five UFC fights and was also taken down three times on eight attempts in a 2019 DWCS decision loss, which factors into his 54.9% takedown defense. On the other side of things, Algeo has landed five takedowns of his own on 10 attempts in his five UFC fights, but has never landed more than two in a fight. All three of Algeo’s UFC wins have come against fighters with cardio concerns, which isn’t surprising considering pace is one of his best weapons. He averages 5.73 SSL/min and 4.18 SSA/min. He likes to showboat on the feet, but isn’t an especially dangerous striker. He’s also only landed one submission win since 2014 and overall appears content with fighting to close decisions, unless opponents quit on their own, as we saw in his last fight.
Fight Prediction:
Algeo will have a 1” height advantage, while Fili will have a 1” reach advantage. Despite joining the UFC seven years before Algeo, Fili is a year younger than the 33-year-old Algeo.
Fili is desperate for a win here as he hasn’t gotten his hand raised since 2020. He’s always been good about bouncing back from losses and has never lost two in a row in his career. And on the flipside, Algeo rarely wins two fights in a row, although is coming off his first pair of back-to-back wins since 2019. Algeo isn’t very dangerous and generally relies on outworking his opponents to grind out decision wins. That strategy works well against opponents with poor cardio, but Fili should be able to keep up and has made a career out of facing much tougher competition than Algeo. Fili’s recent quick R1 KO loss certainly isn’t a good look, but should allow us to get a better price on him in this spot. Fili also notably trains at Team Alpha Male with Ricardo Ramos, who already beat Algeo, so his team has already successfully gameplanned for Algeo once. We like Fili to win a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is Fili’s ML at -120.
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DFS Implications:
Fili has been going through a tough patch lately, as he’s just 13 plus a No Contest in his last five fights, with the lone loss ending in a split decision. He’s coming off a R1 KO loss against an opponent who entered 0-1 in the UFC, with that loss coincidentally coming against Bill Algeo. In his nine UFC wins, Fili has averaged 92 DraftKings points. If we break that down between his decisions and finishes, he has averaged 85 DraftKings points in his six decision wins and 107 points in his three finishes, which all ended in knockouts. He’s only landed one finish since 2015, which came in a 2019 R1 KO, but he was moments away from finishing Daniel Pineda in his second most recent fight before an accidental eye poke caused the match to end in a No Contest. Fili has shown the ability to score pretty well in decisions through a combination of striking and grappling, with DraftKings scores of 98 and 99 in his highest two scoring decision wins. He landed five takedowns in each of those fights, and is now going against an opponent in Algeo who’s been taken down at least five times in each of his UFC decision losses. In Algeo’s two UFC decision losses, his opponents put up DK/FD scores of 117/112 and 99/105 and Algeo got taken down 13 times on 24 attempts between those two fights. So while this doesn’t set up as a good spot for Fili to find a finish against an opponent who’s never been knocked out, he still has the potential to score well in a decision. His recent struggles should keep his ownership in check, especially with Algeo coming off a career performance. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Algeo is coming off a career DFS performance where he scored 107 DraftKings points, after failing to top 88 points in his first four UFC fights. His recent total can largely be attributed to Herbert Burns fading hard in the back half of round one as he dealt with a knee injury in addition to his suspect cardio. Algeo won by “TKO” but the fight was only stopped because Burns was unable to return to his feet in the second round after Algeo stood back up. Algeo had fought to six straight decisions prior to that and isn’t much of a finisher. He’s also been very inconsistent, as he alternated wins and losses for seven straight fights prior to the win over Burns. Despite all of that, Algeo was still 29% owned on DraftKings in his last fight and we expect him to be the more popular fighter in this matchup. That lowers his tournament appeal as he faces a step up in competition here. All three of Algeo’s UFC wins have come against opponents with cardio concerns and we don’t expect Fili to have any trouble keeping up with Algeo’s pace. While Algeo is a BJJ black belt, he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2019 and Fili hasn’t been submitted since 2015. Algeo also doesn’t have a ton of power, so his best case scenario will likely be to grind out a decision win and try to serve as a value play, which is certainly still possible as he averages 5.73 SSL/min and typically tacks on a takedown or two. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Gregory Rodrigues
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Rodrigues recently became the first fighter to ever finish a very durable Julian Marquez, and did so in an impressive first round knockout. Just prior to that, Rodrigues lost a questionable split-decision to Armen Petrosyan, in a fight where Rodrigues showed a non-existent fight IQ as he opted not to grapple any until late in the fight against a one-dimensional kickboxer who’s completely helpless on the mat. Instead, Rodrigues was content with duking it out on the feet for most of the fight and didn’t even attempt a takedown until the final minute of round two. With that said, all the big moments in the fight belonged to Rodrigues and it looked like he was on the verge of finishing Petrosyan at multiple points. Looking back one fight farther, Rodrigues handed Jun Yong Park the only KO loss of his career, after winning a decision over Dusko Todorovic in Rodrigues’ short notice UFC debut in June 2021.
In his last fight, Rodrigues had the speed and size advantage and Julian Marquez had no answer for him from the start. Rodrigues dropped Marquez 90 seconds into the first round and then tried to finish him with ground and pound opposed to looking for a submission on the mat. Marquez was able to return to his feet, and at that point Rodrigues opted to take his back but couldn’t hang on. The two fighters returned to standing and trading on the feet, and Rodrigues landed another knockdown, but again Marquez returned to his feet, before immediately getting dropped to a knee once again. Marquez showed his toughness as he once again stood back up after being dropped and threw everything he had left at Rodrigues, but he was very compromised at that point and Rodrigues dropped him for good with one last right hand. The wild brawl ended with Rodrigues ahead 49-13 in significant strikes and 50-13 in total strikes. No takedowns were attempted, but Rodrigues finished with three official knockdowns.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Rodrigues has six wins by KO, four by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out in the first round twice, with his other two losses ending in split decisions. One of his two KO losses came in his 2014 pro debut, while the other was on DWCS in 2020 against Jordan Williams, who is now 0-3 in the UFC and moved down a weight class for his last two fights. Rodrigues has won 5 of his last 6 and 11 of his last 13 fights. Six of his last eight fights have ended in knockouts (5-1), all in the first two rounds. His four career submission wins have been split across the first two rounds, but he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2018 and he hasn’t looked especially sharp on the mat, despite his celebrated jiu-jitsu background. He seems to have fallen in love with his striking and his last five finishes have all ended in knockouts.
Overall, Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt and 8-time National BJJ Champion. He has solid power, and is overall a good striker, but he’s also looked pretty hittable and averages 5.73 SSA/min (5th most on the slate). He hasn’t lived up to his grappling resume so far in the UFC and at this point we’ve given up on him fully utilizing his grappling in favorable matchups. With that said, he’s landed at least two takedowns in three of his four UFC fights and has never been submitted in his career. While he will occasionally mix in takedowns, he hasn’t done a very good job of controlling opponents on the mat and struggles to wrap opponents up with his legs. He consistently finds himself getting sucked into brawls, which makes for exciting but dicey fights.
Chidi Njokuani
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Njokuani couldn’t have started much hotter in the UFC, as he’s now landed back-to-back first round knockouts, including a 16 second R1 finish in his February 2021 UFC debut over Marc-Andre Barriault, who had previously never been finished in his career. He followed it up with a late first round knockout of Dusko Todorovic in his last match, and has now knocked out four straight opponents dating back to a 2020 R2 TKO win in the LFA followed by a 2021 R3 TKO on DWCS to punch his ticket to the UFC.
In Njokuani’s last fight, Todorovic smartly tried to take him down in the opening 30 seconds, but Njokuani was able to sprawl and stuff the attempt. Njokuani actually looked for a choke at that point, but Todorovic fought through it and ended up in top position. However, Njokuani was able to work to the cage and eventually return to his feet. Todorovic hung onto his back and tried to get him back down, but Njokuani did a good job of defending the takedown attempts. The fighters finally returned to space in the final minute of the round, before Njokuani actually took Todorovic’s back for a moment. Todorovic then spun into him and Njokuani landed a walk off KO elbow out of the clinch. The fight ended with Njokuani ahead in significant strikes 14-5 and in total strikes 19-9, while Todorovic landed two of his seven takedown attempts and led in control time 3:13-0:50.
Now 22-7 as a pro, Njokuani has 14 wins by KO, one by submission, and seven decisions. Nine of his KO wins occurred in round one, one came in round two, and four ended in round three. He’s been finished in six of his seven pro losses, with three KOs and three submissions. The last time he lost a fight was in 2019, which was also the first decision he’s ever lost. Five of his six early losses came in the first round, while the other occurred in round two. His last submission loss was in 2018 and his last KO loss was in 2017, which ended via ground and pound in a fight that took place at a 175 lb Catchweight. He’s never been knocked out at 185 lb and Njokuani primarily fought at 170 lb until 2017 when moved up to 185 lb. He’s gone 5-2 since making the switch, with five of his last six fights ending early. While Njokuani only has two UFC fights under his belt, he had a long career prior to joining the UFC that included several wins over UFC fighters such as Max Griffin, Alan Jouban, Andre Fialho, Ricky Rainey, and Melvin Guillard. From 2015 to 2019 he competed in Bellator and he turned pro all the way back in 2007. Njokuani’s brother Anthony also previously fought in the UFC.
Overall, Njokuani is a really dangerous striker who’s tall and long for the division. In addition to his 22-7 pro MMA record, Njokuani went 12-1 as a kickboxer. Despite allegedly being a BJJ black belt, Njokuani's biggest weakness is his grappling and we’ve seen him struggle with being controlled both on the fence and on the mat in the past. That’s how his last three losses occurred, with a 2019 smothering decision loss, a 2018 R1 submission loss, and a 2017 R1 ground and pound TKO loss. Now he’ll face an opponent with a grappling background, but who generally prefers to throw down on the feet.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Njokuani will have a 5” reach advantage.
While Rodrigues has a massive grappling advantage in this matchup, he’s a stone dunce and will likely fail to take the path of least resistance. That should make this a more entertaining fight as these two are both dangerous strikers who look to knock opponents out early in fights. Njokuani is the more patient of the two, averaging 3.76 SSL/min to the 6.00 SSL/min of Rodrigues. Both guys have been prone to getting finished in their careers and we’d be surprised if this made it to the judges. We like Njokuani’s chances of knocking Rodrigues out early, but wouldn’t be shocked by either guy finishing the other.
Our favorite bet here is “Njokuani KO” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Rodrigues has put up slate-breaking scores in his last 2 wins, with DraftKings totals of 141 and 120 in a pair of early knockouts. Prior to that, he scored just 76 points in a decision win in his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic, despite landing three takedowns in the fight. While Rodrigues has a celebrated jiu-jitsu background, he hasn’t looked especially impressive on the mat in the UFC and has struggled to control opponents when he does look for takedowns. He also has a non-existent fight IQ and even in dream grappling spots will typically spend most of his time looking for knockouts. The last time Rodrigues faced a one-dimensional striker, he didn’t even attempt a takedown until the final minute of round two and ended up losing a split decision, so it will be interesting to see what his plan is here. Based on the past, we expect him to stand and bang with Njokuani, which should result in someone getting knocked out early, and both guys have multiple KO losses on their records. The odds imply Rodrigues has a 50% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Njokuani has knocked out both of his UFC opponents in the first round, scoring 108 and 130 DraftKings points in those two fights. The first of those came against Marc-Andre Barriault, who had never been finished in his career, and the second was against Dusko Todorovic, who only had one other early loss. While Njokuani has shown the ability to end fights at any moment with a single strike, he doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling, despite being listed as a BJJ black belt. With that said, he did attempt a submission in his last fight, but failed to complete it and ultimately ended up in bottom position on the mat. He’s also a fairly patient striker and hasn’t put up big striking totals in the past, even before joining the UFC where we have a larger sample size to look at. That leaves him reliant on landing knockouts to score well and we wouldn’t expect him to really score well in a decision, although he hasn’t been to one since 2019. Working in Njokuani’s favor, Rodrigues has been knocked out in the first round in two of his four career losses, and has been wobbled at various other points. After breaking the slate in his UFC debut, Njokuani was 54% owned on DraftKings the last time we saw him and will surely be very popular once again after landing another first round knockout, especially after the line flipped in his favor while he’s priced as a slight underdog. That lowers his tournament appeal some but makes it hard to fade him in low-risk lineups. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Cory Sandhagen
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Looking to bounce back from the first losing streak of his career, Sandhagen dropped a pair of decisions against T.J. Dillashaw and Petr Yan in his last two matches. Prior to the pair of losses, Sandhagen had won nine of his previous 10 fights, with his only loss during that stretch coming in a 2020 R1 submission against Aljamain Sterling. All three of Sandhagen’s UFC losses have come against current or former champions, who currently hold the top three spots in the Bantamweight division. If we look at his last three wins, they all came against struggling/aging fighters. Just before losing to Sterling, Sandhagen won a decision over a 37-year-old Raphael Assuncao, who’s lost four straight fights. After losing to Sterling, Sandhagen bounced back with a R2 TKO win over a washed up Marlon Moraes, who’s been knocked out four straight times and recently retired. Sandhagen’s last win came against a 39-year-old Frankie Edgar, who has lost four of his last five and narrowly won a decision in the lone win.
In his last fight, Sandhagen took on Petr Yan for the interim Bantamweight title. As he generally does, Yan started slow in the first round as he felt out Sandhagen and prepared to take over in the later rounds. That allowed Sandhagen to take an early lead in significant strikes, 37-19 in round one. However, that was the only round Sandhagen won in the fight as Yan really took over in rounds three and four especially on his way to winning a unanimous 49-46 decision. While Sandhagen landed a ton of volume and finished ahead 169-149 in significant strikes and 172-158 in total strikes, he wasn’t landing many clean or impactful shots and it was Yan that did more damage.
Now 14-4 as a pro, Sandhagen has six wins by KO, three by submission, and five decision victories. Six of his last seven early wins have come by KO, split evenly between the first two rounds. All three of his career submission wins have occurred in the first round, but two of those notably came in his first three pro fights. Sandhagen has never landed a finish beyond the nine minute mark in a fight. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a R1 submission against Aljamain Sterling. His other three losses have all gone the distance. Sandhagen fought his first pro fight at 135 lb in 2015, but then moved up to 145 lb for his next eight matches from 2016 to 2018. Following his 2018 UFC debut at 145 lb, Sandhagen dropped back down to 135 lb where he has stayed since.
This will be the 4th five-round fight of Sandhagen’s career and his third in a row. The first time he was scheduled to go five rounds was against Marlon Moreaes in October 2020 and Sandhagen landed a second round TKO. The other two times were in his recent five-round decision losses, including a split decision to Dillashaw that arguably could have gone his way. So overall, Sandhagen has never won a fight that has lasted longer than three rounds. With that said, he trains at altitude in Colorado, which should be especially beneficial in five round fights.
Overall, Sandhagen is a high-volume striker who has never been outlanded in a UFC fight that lasted longer than 90 seconds. He averages 6.42 SSL/min and 4.50 SSA/min, while tacking on an occasional takedown, with five takedowns landed in 10 UFC fights, but just one in his last six. While he isn’t a great offensive wrestler, he is a BJJ brown belt and is a decent grappler on the mat who will go for all types of submissions off his back.
Song Yadong
11th UFC Fight (8-1-1)Still just 24 years old, Song enters the biggest fight of his career on a three fight winning streak, with his last two victories ending in early knockouts. Prior to those two knockouts, Song had fought to four straight decisions (2-1-1). His only loss in his last 12 fights came in a 2021 decision against Kyler Phillips, but he also has a 2019 draw against Cody Stamann on his record that arguably should be a loss. He bounced back from the loss to Phillips with a split-decision win over Casey Kenney, before becoming the first fighter to ever knock out Julio Arce.
In his last fight, Song clipped Marlon Moraes 30 seconds into the first with a big right hand to set the tone, although Moraes was able to remain on his feet and fire back with a head kick. The two exchanged strikes for 90 more seconds before Song landed a combination of punches for a walk off KO victory two minutes into the fight. It ended with Song ahead 14-9 in striking with no takedowns attempted.
Now 19-6-1 as a pro, Song has eight wins by KO, three by submission, and eight decisions. The only time Song has ever been finished came in a 2016 R2 knockout when he was just 18 years old, in a match that was fought up at Featherweight (145 lb) prior to joining the UFC. He has competed at both 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career, however all but two of his UFC fights have been down at 135 lb. So far in the UFC, he’s 2-0 with a submission and a decision at 145 lb and 6-1-1 at 135 lb with four knockout victories and four decisions (2-1-1).
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Song’s career, so we’ve yet to see how his cardio will hold up in the championship rounds.
Overall, Song’s entire life has been dedicated to the pursuit of martial arts. He started intense training at just 9 years old when he left his family to go train with the Shaolin Monks. By the age of 12 he was already winning championships and he went pro at just 16. He’s an excellent striker with very fast hands, but doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. He’s been taken down 11 times on 28 attempts (60.7% defense) in his 10 UFC fights and the last four opponents to try and take him down have all landed at least one of their attempts, with three of them landing two or more. Song does train at Team Alpha Male, so he has plenty of wrestlers to train with on a daily basis, and he’s never been submitted to his credit in an MMA fight. However, he did recently take part in a grappling match and was submitted in that, although that also shows he’s at least been trying to work on his grappling.
Fight Prediction:
Sandhagen will have a 3” height and reach advantage and is six years older than the 24-year-old Song.
This sets up as a fun striking battle and we could also see Sandhagen try to mix in some grappling, as he should hold the advantage on the mat. Song has never fought anyone taller than 5’8” in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how he deals with the size and length of the 5’11” Sandhagen. Song’s last three opponents have all been 5’7” or shorter. Sandhagen is the busier fighter, averaging 6.42 SSL/min to Song’s 4.92 SSL/min, which when combined with his reach advantage, should allow him to point his way to a decision win. Song is the more powerful puncher of the two, while Sandhagen will mix in more kicks and flying knees, and is also a submission threat on the mat. However, both guys are extremely durable, and we like this one to go the distance. Song will likely be reliant on winning the damage battle, as he’s less likely to finish ahead in striking volume. That makes it tougher to see Song get his hand raised in a decision, and if anyone adds anything in terms of grappling, it will be Sandhagen, who has a slight chance to land an early submission. With that said, give us Sandhagen by decision in this one.
Our favorite bet here is Sandhagen’s ML at -190.
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DFS Implications:
Sandhagen is a high-volume striker who averages 6.42 SSL/min and will occasionally mix in some grappling, where he should hold the advantage in this match. He’s a dangerous finisher, with 9 of his 14 career wins coming early, but is now coming off a pair of decision losses to former champions in Petr Yan and T.J. Dillashaw. Even in those losses, Sandhagen was able to score 79 and 60 DraftKings points respectively. The first of those scores came against Petr Yan, who entered the matchup against Sandhagen only averaging 3.55 SSA/min and no one had ever landed more than 97 significant strikes against him. Sandhagen landed 169 (6.76 SSL/min), and now steps into a matchup against a pure striker in Song Yadong, who similar to Yan averages 3.78 SSA/min, but has never fought anyone nearly as tall and rangy as Sandhagen. While five of Sandhagen’s seven UFC wins have come early, all in the first two rounds, Song is incredibly durable and has only been finished once in his career, which occurred in a 2016 R2 KO when he was just 18 years old, in a match that was fought up at 145 lb. Therefore a finish here is less likely, albeit certainly not impossible. We expect Sandhagen to again put up a big striking total, which provides a solid scoring floor, especially when you consider he’s never been knocked out. He has the ability to put up a big score even in a decision, especially if he mixes in some grappling, which would make sense in this matchup. His high price tag does create the potential for him to score well but still get priced out of winning lineups, especially on DraftKings, but we like his chances of finding his way into the winning lineup on both sites. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Song is coming off two straight KO wins and has averaged 95 DraftKings points in his eight UFC victories, with five of those ending early, all in the first two rounds. He’s essentially a pure striker who hasn’t landed a takedown in his last seven fights, although he did just compete in a grappling match and trains at Team Alpha Male, so he could be working at rounding out his game some. This will be the first five-round fight of Song’s career, which adds some uncertainty to the mix, but he’s given us no reason to question his cardio or his preparation. With that said, Sandhagen is typically looking to push the pace, so Song’s cardio will get tested here if this fight makes it to the championship rounds as we expect it to. Song has solid power in his hands, but Sandhagen has never been knocked out and this looks like a tough spot for Song to land his third straight knockout victory. It’s also hard to see Song outlanding Sandhagen in a decision, as Sandhagen has never been outlanded in a fight that lasted longer than 90 seconds, which will make it tough for Song to pull off the upset. Also, all three of Sandhagen’s UFC losses have come against current and former champions and this is a big step up in competition for Song. With all that said, if he is able to somehow pull off the upset, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning tournament lineups at his cheap price tag. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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