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Fight Day Scratches:
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Kay Hansen
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Fourteen months removed from a close/questionable decision loss in her second UFC fight, Hansen will now be moving up to 125 lb for the first time with the organization. However, she notably went 2-1 at 125 lb prior to joining the UFC. Both of those wins were third round finishes, one by KO and the other by submission, while her lone 125 lb loss ended in a decision. She’s 5-3 in her career at 115 lb, with four finishes, including three in round three, and one decision win. The only time she’s ever been finished was a R2 KO in her second pro fight at 115 lb, while her most recent two losses ended in decisions. Interestingly, five of Hansen’s last six wins have come early and all of those wins ended in the third round. The last three were by submission, while the previous two were ground and pound TKOs. Overall, Hansen holds a 7-4 pro record, with two KOs, four submissions and one decision win. She has one TKO loss and three decision defeats. So while she’s been a solid finisher with 86% of her wins coming early, she’s lost 75% of the decisions she’s been to.
In her most recent decision loss, Hansen led in significant strikes 67-57, in takedowns 2-0 and in control time 5:22-3:05. Her opponent, Cory McKenna, was able to take the lead in total strikes 156-87 as she constantly threw strikes even when Hansen had her back. Whether or not those far less impactful strikes should count for much is debatable. Despite trailing in pretty much every statistical category the judges unanimously awarded McKenna a 29-28 decision win. Hansen has yet to be taken down in the UFC but she’s only had to defend one attempt, which came from McKenna, and we did see Hansen get reversed on the mat and controlled on her back at points by McKenna as well.
Prior to that loss, Hansen landed a third round armbar submission in her June 2020 UFC debut against Jinh Yu Frey who was also making her debut. In a low-volume affair, Hansen went just 2 for 11 on her takedown attempts, while leading 31-26 in significant strikes and 43-27 in total strikes with four and a half minutes of control time.
Coincidentally, Hansen’s last eight fights have alternated between finishes and decisions and she’s now coming off a decision. More notable, her last nine fights have all made it to the third round, with four of those going the distance, but five ending in finishes for Hansen.
Jasmine Jasudavicius
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Fresh off a September 2021 decision win on DWCS, Jasudavicius put on a strong wrestling performance as she landed four takedowns on seven attempts with over eight minutes of control time. She also led in significant strikes 70-65 and in total strikes 110-84, but had an increasingly tougher time getting the fight to the ground as the match went on. She landed her only takedown attempt in the first round with over four minutes of control time. Then she went 2 for 3 on takedowns in round two with two and a half minutes of control time. Then she went 1 for 3 on takedowns in the third round with just under a minute and a half of control time.
Jasudavicius only turned pro two and a half years ago, but has gone 6-1, with her only loss coming in a questionable 4-round split decision against now UFC newcomer and suspect talent Elise Reed. In her six wins, Jasudavicius has two KOs, one submission, and three decisions, although her last three fights have all gone the distance. Her one loss notably took place down at 115 lb, while the rest of her fights have been up at 125 lb outside of one that took place at a 122 lb Catchweight.
With a background in freestyle wrestling and a BJJ purple belt, Jasudavicius doesn’t offer much on the feet, especially with her hands, and both of her TKO wins came via knees. She will look for ground and pound on the mat, opposed to really hunting for submissions, but she’s never finished anyone with ground and pound. Her only career submission win was in her 2019 pro debut against an opponent who had never fought professionally before. And on that note, Jasudavicius’ seven opponents have generally not had a ton of experience as they entered with records of 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-0, 5-5, and 8-2.
Fight Prediction:
Jasudavicius will have a 5” height and reach advantage and is 10 years older than the 22-year-old Hansen.
Hansen should have a notable striking advantage in this fight and is also a much better finisher, however, Jasudavicius will have a massive size advantage, which theoretically should play a major role in a wrestling match. It’s been over two years since Hansen last competed at 125 lb and that was before she joined the UFC, so we’re not entirely sure what to expect out of her, especially when you consider the fact she hasn’t fought in 14 months. We expect Hansen to have sharper hands despite being at a sizeable reach disadvantage, so if she can remain on her feet then this is the rare matchup where she could actually outstrike her way to victory. With that said, we expect Jasudavicius to be looking to take this fight to the ground and that’s where things should get interesting as both of these women are grapplers. Jasudavicius will be looking to put Hansen on her back and land ground and pound, whereas Hansen is generally looking for submission on the mat. We expect this to end with either a late round finish for Hansen or a Jasudavicius decision victory. Largely based on the size difference between the two and Hansen’s record in fights that go the distance, we like Jasudavicius’ chances to pull off the upset and win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Jasudavicius Wins by Decision” at +310.
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DFS Implications:
With Hansen’s last nine fights all making it to the third round, her DFS ceiling has been somewhat capped even though 6 of her 7 career wins have come early. She scored just 78 points in a third round submission win in her UFC debut and just 50 points in her recent decision loss. Both of those were back and forth affairs, so we’ve yet to see her dominate an opponent for the entire fight, which would obviously score better. While she faces a UFC newcomer in this fight which is generally a spot you want to target, there are several reasons for concern with Hansen. First, she hasn’t fought in 14 months. Second, she’s moving up a weight class for the first time in the UFC. And third, she’s going against a much larger opponent who has a 5” height and reach advantage. While we don’t really know how Hansen will look after the move up in weight, it’s generally not a good sign when you’re at a significant size disadvantage in a grappling match. With that said, Hansen is the more experienced fighter despite being 10 years younger and it’s possible that experience will be enough to overcome the size difference. The best thing Hansen has going for her in DFS is that she projects to be very low owned in tournaments despite being a -225 favorite. Based on her price tag, she’ll either need a finish or a completely dominating decision to return value and we’ve seen a third round finish may still not be enough to get there. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Jasudavicius makes for an interesting DFS play for all of the reasons that we’re concerned about Hansen (time away, weight move, height/reach). Jasudavicius will tower over Hansen, which should theoretically help her to win the grappling exchanges. Working against Jasudavicius, she’s not a great striker and is essentially a one-dimensional grappler. So considering Hansen is also a grappler, it may be harder for Jasudavicius to put on a dominating grappling performance. That could either result in a more evenly matched back and forth battle on the mat or we could see this remain on the feet more than expected. Between that uncertainty and Hansen moving up to 125 lb for the first time in the UFC, this is a high variance spot with a wide range of outcomes. However, we like Jasudavicius’ chances to find some success on the mat, which makes her an interesting underdog play in DFS, especially on DraftKings. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #10
Matt Frevola
7th UFC Fight (2-3-1)Frevola has had a rough go of things lately with his last fight ending in a seven second R1 KO loss to an explosive Terrance McKinney, who was making his debut on short notice after Frank Camacho dropped out. Just prior to that, Frevola had another late opponent change after Ottman Azaitar was pulled from the card and replaced by an extremely tough Arman Tsarukyan on one day’s notice. Tsarukyan defeated Frevola in a decision, but in fairness, Tsarukyan is a brutally tough matchup for anybody. Prior to that, Frevola had three straight matchups fall through, after going 2-0-1 in his previous three fights, with all three of those ending in decisions. Frevola fought a tough Lando Vannata to a draw in 2018 and then defeated another tough opponent in Jalin Turner in a decision. His last win came against Luis Pena in a 2019 split-decision.
Frevola wrestled when he was younger and is a BJJ brown belt. He’s never landed more than 66 significant strikes in a fight and averages just 2.73 significant strikes landed per minute. He notably attempts an average of seven takedowns per 15 minutes but only lands 2.6 of those. Still, he’s landed four takedowns in each of his last two wins showing some grappling upside. Frevola is now 8-3-1 as a pro, with one KO, three submissions, and four decision victories. Three of those finishes came in his first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 1-1, and 2-0. He’s been knocked out twice and has one decision loss.
Now 2-3-1 in the UFC and on a two fight losing streak, we expect Frevola to come in hungry for a win to get back to .500 with the organization. This looks like the most favorable matchup he’s had in a while, so it’s a prime bounce back spot as he faces a UFC newcomer.
Genaro Valdez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Entering into the UFC on a 10 fight winning streak, Valdez’s most recent victory was a wild brawling second round TKO on DWCS in October 2021. We should probably take that win with a grain of salt as it came against an Alaskan fighter in Patrik White, who’s the cousin/training partner of Carlton Minus. White couldn’t even find his mouthpiece or cup just before the fight, which didn’t exactly make a great impression in what was essentially a job interview. Valdez won with an early second round KO in a sloppy brawl, although he looked like he was gassing out in round one, so overall the fight was riddled with red flags. The fight ended with Valdez behind in significant strikes 56-36 and in total strikes 59-47. However, he landed 4 takedowns on 8 attempts with nearly three minutes of control time in a fight that lasted less than six minutes. Valdez sloppily looked for a rear-naked choke midway through the first round, but was so eager to get the choke locked in he forgot to get his hooks in and fell off the side. White nearly finished Valdez late in R1, but Valdez was able to survive, land a clean shot that dropped White and get the finish 44 seconds into the second round. It’s important to note that he looked absolutely gassed as he got the finish.
Valdez has never been to the judges and has only even seen the third round once. He has seven wins by KO and three by submission, with six of his finishes coming in the first round, three ending in round two and one coming in the opening two minutes of round three. He’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than seven minutes and considering he was already gassing out in the first round of his last fight, we have serious concerns with his cardio.
Valdez has yet to face any high-level competition and his opponents entered with records of 9-1 (in Alaska), 6-4, 8-3, 1-2, 4-0, 0-2, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-0. This will be a major step up in competition for him and Valdez looks sloppy both in his grappling, his striking, and his cardio.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Valdez will have a 1” reach advantage.
Despite Valdez entering with a perfect 10-0 record with a 100% finishing rate and Frevola coming off two straight losses, this looks like a great get-right spot for Frevola and we expect his gritty style to wear on the cardio of Valdez. While Frevola is an unexceptional talent, this is one of the best matchups he could ask for in the UFC and if he can’t get a win here then his days in the UFC will likely soon be coming to an end. We expect to see a motivated Frevola outlast Valdez and either land a mid to late round finish or to more likely grind out a decision.
Our favorite bet here is Frevola’s ML at -196.
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DFS Implications:
Frevola has yet to ever score well in DFS, with DraftKings totals of just 75 and 85 in his two decision wins, despite landing four takedowns in each of those fights. He simply lacks the striking volume to score well in decisions, so he’s still reliant on landing a finish to return value. And with that in mind, he’s yet to finish an opponent at the UFC level. However, this looks like his most favorable matchup to date against a UFC newcomer with cardio concerns, and we could see Frevola get a late finish if Valdez gasses out. After suffering two straight losses and priced expensively on DraftKings, Frevola should go very low owned in tournaments and looks like a great leverage play off of the other expensive options. He’s also very affordably priced on FanDuel. The odds imply Frevola has a 64% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Valdez comes into his UFC debut with a perfect 10-0 record and a 100% finishing rate that should attract some attention from the field, but we weren’t impressed with what we saw out of him on tape and he looks like a sloppy fighter with cardio concerns who’s been beating up on low-level talent. It’s possible he proves us wrong and his track record at least presents a theoretical scoring ceiling, but he looks more like a guy we want to bet against then on. With that said, his recent early round two KO win on DWCS would have been good for 122 DraftKings points and 138 points on FanDuel, just keep in mind it came against an Alaskan fighter in a crazy uptempo brawl. So while Valdez’ fighting style does lend itself well to putting up big DFS scores, it’s important to keep in mind the level of competition he’s been facing. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Vanessa Demopoulos
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)This fight had been scheduled for last week but ended up getting pushed back to this slate.
Coming off a decision loss at 125 lb in her UFC debut, Demopoulos is now moving back down to her regular weight class of 115 lb. She had been scheduled to face Ashley Yoder, who dropped out months before the fight, allowing Jaurez to step in on November 11th.
In her recent loss to J.J. Aldrich, Demopoulos got taken down in the opening 60 seconds and spent the next three minutes on her back before Aldrich allowed her to return to her feet in the final minute of the round. Demopoulos is generally content hunting for submissions off of her back, but she never got close to locking anything up. The second and third rounds played out entirely on the feet with Aldrich leading the way in striking and Demopoulos finishing the fight going 0 for 5 on her takedown attempts, while Aldrich landed 1 of her 2 attempts. Aldrich finished ahead in significant strikes 93-70 and 121-87 in total strikes. Aldrich also led in control time with 4:19-1:53 as she finished ahead in every statistical category. Demopoulos did nothing to impress us in the fight, but did show she’s willing to be aggressive both on the feet and on the mat.
Considering that was Demopoulos’ first pro fight at Flyweight, we should take her grappling struggles in the match with a grain of salt. However, she also failed to land a takedown on two attempts when she went on DWCS in 2020. In her other three most recent fights, Demopoulos went just 1 for 4 on takedowns, achieving only 1 for 11 on her takedown attempts in her last five fights. For what it’s worth, four of those five fights were against fighters currently in the UFC, but that’s still a highly unimpressive number for someone that relies so heavily on their grappling.
Demopoulos originally attempted to punch her ticket to the UFC through DWCS in August 2020, but lost a smothering decision to Cory McKenna and was forced to return to the LFA where she had just won the vacant Strawweight belt in her previous fight with a R4 submission against Sam Hughes. Upon her return to the LFA, Demopoulos lost again in a brawling 5-round decision in another Strawweight LFA title fight against Lupita Godinez. Demopoulos then bounced back with a 37 second R1 KO victory against Cynthia Arceo in her most recent win, although Demopoulos appeared to land a blatantly illegal knee during the fight ending sequence that was never noticed by the ref. Arceo also notably missed weight by almost 3 lb for that fight and has now lost three of her last four fights.
A BJJ brown belt, Demopoulos is primarily a grappler but doesn’t mind mixing it up on the feet. She’s not a very technical striker however, and tends to be very hittable. She’s now 6-4 as a pro, with three wins by submission, two by decision, and one KO. All four of her career losses have ended in decisions, with three of those four losses coming in her last four fights as she’s really struggled when faced with UFC level talent. Five of her last six and seven of her last nine fights have made it to the third round and all but one of her career fights have made it past the first round, going the distance.
Silvana Gomez Juarez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Also coming off a loss in her UFC debut, Juarez was submitted with a first round armbar by a tough Loopy Godinez, which was remarkably the first submission win of Godinez’s career. Juarez’s lack of grappling was on full display as Godinez put on a dominant wrestling performance, landing five takedowns on six attempts with three and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over four minutes. Juarez put up little to no resistance to getting taken down and looked helpless on the mat, exposing a clear weakness for opponents to exploit moving forward. Juarez had originally been scheduled to go on DWCS the following week, but was able to fasttrack her way to the UFC after Sam Hughes dropped out against Godinez and Juarez stepped in on short notice. That was Juarez’s third straight fight to end in the opening two rounds after she landed a pair of TKO victories in rounds one and two of her previous two fights.
Juarez is now 10-3 as a pro with eight of her wins coming early, including six KOs and two submissions. Her three career losses all came against UFC fighters, with her previous two coming in a 2018 5-round decision loss to Ariane Lipski and a 2015 R4 TKO loss against Poliana Botelho.
While Juarez has two submission wins on her record, she’s truly a pure kickboxer and doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of grappling. Both of her submission wins were by back-to-back third round armbars in two fights dating back to 2014.. Impressively, five of her six KO wins have occurred in the first round, with the other coming in round two of her most recent win. She has decent striking but is already 37 years old, past the ‘prime’ for most fighters as she’s getting a really late start in her UFC career.
Juarez has fought as high as 135 lb in the past, but has spent most of her career at Flyweight (125 lb). She dropped down to Strawweight (115 lb) for her recent UFC debut, where she had only competed at once before that, but won a decision in 2019.
Fight Prediction:
Juarez will have a 1” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
This grappler versus striker matchup pairs up two fighters looking to bounce back from losses in their respective UFC debuts and the outcome should simply depend on where the fight takes place. Juarez’s takedown defense looked dreadful in her abbreviated UFC debut, but Demopoulos’ takedown accuracy is similarly suspect. That creates some uncertainty as to whether or not Demopoulos will be able to get this fight to the ground, but if she can’t get Juarez down then she might as well just give up on even attempting takedowns moving forward. Demopoulos doesn’t appear to be a UFC level talent, so if Juarez can keep it standing she should be able to out-strike her way to victory. Demopoulos isn’t helpless in the striking department, but she’s very hittable and won’t win many striking battles against talented competition. Surprisingly, Demopoulos has never been finished and has demonstrated plenty of toughness and heart, but we see Juarez winning a decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Juarez Wins by Decision” at +260.
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DFS Implications:
Demopoulos’ aggressive fighting style lends itself well towards uptempo high scoring fights, although she would prefer to hunt for submissions on the mat then trade strikes on the feet. This does look like a favorable matchup for her to excel in when it comes to grappling, but only if she can actually land a takedown, something that has been a challenge for her. Going back five fights, her only takedown landed in her last 11 attempts came in the 5th round of a 2020 LFA title fight. She went 0 for 5 in her recent UFC debut. She’s really struggled with her accuracy, but Juarez was taken down five times on six attempts before getting submitted late in the first round of her last fight. If Demopoulos was ever going to find grappling success this would likely be the time. However, if she’s unable to turn this into a grappling match then we expect her to lose a striking battle. She is notably dropping back down to 115 lb, after taking her UFC debut up at 125 lb on short notice, which gives us some reason for optimism in her having more success now in her second bout inside the Octagon. Overall, this is a high variance spot with two unproven fighters who each have a path to dominating the other. With both of them losing their recent debuts, we expect their ownership to be low, making each of them interesting DFS tournament options. The odds imply she has a 57% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
After facing a really tough Loopy Godinez in her UFC debut, Juarez now gets a much easier matchup against questionable talent in Vanessa Demopoulos. However, after seeing Juarez get dominated on the mat in her last fight, you have to have some level of concern for her as she squares off against a grappler here. Working in Jaurez’s favor, Demopoulos has really struggled with her takedown accuracy, going just 1 for 11 on her attempts in her last five fights. If Juarez can at least mount some level of resistance then there’s a good chance she can keep this standing and piece up a very hittable Demopoulos. While 80% of Juarez’s career wins have come early, including five first round KO/TKOs, Demopoulos has never been finished, which lowers Juarez’s chances of getting a finish. However, we’ve seen her put up high striking totals prior to joining the UFC and it’s possible she can serve as a value play at her reasonable price tag, especially on FanDuel, with a super high-volume decision win. With that said, we don’t see her putting up a big score without a finish, which is likely what you’re relying on if you play her due to her lack of grappling. The odds imply she has a 43% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Tony Gravely
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Looking to bounce back from the first KO loss of his career, Gravely was finished by Nate Maness in the second round after nearly finishing him at the end of round one. Gravely dropped Maness with just two seconds left on the clock and it looked like his opponent was out for a second. The referee then allowed him a little time to recover following the horn and Maness was able to make it to his corner. As Gravely looked to finish the job in round two, Maness was able to drop him with a clean right hand and forced the stoppage with ground and pound. The fight ended with Gravely ahead in significant strikes 36-31, while Maness led in total strikes 64-44. Both fighters landed a takedown, Maness on his lone attempt and Gravely on six attempts. Gravely finished ahead in control time 2:26-0:15.
That was just the second time Gravely had lost in his last 11 fights, although he’s now 2-2 in the UFC and in need of a win to avoid a losing record. His other loss came in his 2020 UFC debut against a really tough grappler in Brett Johns, who was submitted Gravely in the third round. Submissions have been Gravely’s Achilles' heel throughout his career, as that’s how 5 of his 7 career losses have ended. In fairness, three of his five submission losses were against UFC fighters in Pat Sabatini, Manny Bermudez, and Brett Johns, having fought tough competition throughout his career. His lone decision loss came against standout fighter Merab Dvalishvili back in 2016. Three of his submission losses have come by rear-naked choke, one via armbar, and the last by guillotine. Three of those losses occurred in 2017 or prior. Gravely’s last seven fights have all made it past the first round, but only one of those went the distance and we often see late finishes in his matches.
Now 21-7 as a pro, he also has one KO loss and one decision defeat. He’s won the other nine decisions he’s been to and almost always wins when fights go the distance. Gravely has a celebrated background in wrestling in both high school and college, having trained with the VA Tech wrestling team. However, he is more of a threat at landing knockouts through ground and pound than submissions. He has nine wins by KO and three by submission.
His most recent win was a dominating R2 KO in a dream matchup against Anthony Birchak. Gravely filled up the statsheet with a pair of knockdowns, 39 significant strikes, 61 total strikes, four takedowns on six attempts, and over four and half minutes of control time. All of this occurred in a fight that lasted just six minutes and 31 seconds. The only blemish on the near perfect performance came when he was briefly stuck in a guillotine attempt, though he calmly escaped and resumed domination on his way to a R2 KO victory. Keep in mind, Birchak went 2-4 in two stints with the UFC with all four of his losses ending early, including three in the first round. Gravely had been scheduled to face Maness at that time back in April, but Maness withdrew and Birchak stepped in.
The only time Gravely has required the judges in his last 12 fights was when he defeated Geraldo de Freitas Jr. in a hard fought, grappling-heavy split-decision in his third most recent fight. Prior to joining the UFC, Gravely had won seven in a row, with six KOs and one submission. Two of those KOs did come in the fourth and fifth rounds of five round fights, so he did have a little extra time to work in those bouts.
He’s landed a remarkable 17 takedowns in his four UFC fights on 36 attempts and averages an impressive 5.6 takedowns landed per 15 minutes..
Saimon Oliveira
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a split-decision win on DWCS in September 2021, Oliveira makes his UFC debut on a five fight winning streak, with four of those coming by first round submission. In fact, his last six finishes have all ended in first round submissions, with five of those coming via guillotine, which is how he’s finished 7 of his 11 career submission victories. Nine of those 11 career submissions occurred in the first round as his go to move appears to be locking up guillotines along the fence to end fights in the opening five minutes. He also has five wins by KO and two decisions to round out his 18-3 pro record. All three of his losses have gone the distance and he’s never been finished.
In his recent DWCS fight, Oliveira was aggressive to the point of being wild with his striking at times as he threw a lot of spinning back fists and flying knees. He consistently looked to take the fight to the mat, finishing 3 for 7 on his takedown attempts, while successfully defending his opponent’s only attempt. Significant strikes finished dead even at 47, while his opponent, Jose Alday, led in total strikes 74-67. Oliveira ended the fight with over six minutes of control time but was never really able to do much with it.
That was the only time Oliveira has fought in the last 25 months going back to December 2019 so he hasn’t been very active lately. While he’ll be making his debut at 135 lb where his DWCS fight also took place, his second most recent fight was up at 148 lb. He’s even competed all the way up at 165 lb in 2018. He’s also had several previous Bantamweight fights so his weight has been all over the place.
Overall, Oliveira is an aggressive fighter who combines Muay Thai style striking with aggressive grappling. He doesn’t offer much off his back however, and is primarily a guillotine specialist. While he does look to push the pace, we weren’t overly impressed by anything Oliveira showed on tape as he telegraphs takedowns and throws wild strikes.
Fight Prediction:
Gravely will have a 1” height advantage, while Oliveira will have a 3” reach advantage.
Gravely looks to be the superior fighter both on the feet and the mat. The only thing he really needs to worry about here is protecting his neck as he looks for takedowns, seeing as how Oliveira is a submission specialist and 5 of Gravely’s 7 career losses have come by submission. The bigger question will be whether or not Gravely can be the first person to ever finish Oliveira, and the fact that Gravely has only been to one decision in his last 12 fights is encouraging for his chances. Gravely’s last seven fights have all made it out of the first round and we like his chances to land a late TKO in this one, but we won’t be shocked if Oliveira can hang on to lose a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Gravely was moments away from breaking the slate the last time he fought as he dropped Nate Maness in the final seconds of the first round, though Maness went on to be saved by the bell. Had the ref stopped the fight then, Gravely would have scored 120 DraftKings points and 134 points on FanDuel. In his second most recent fight, Gravely did break the slate as he scored a massive 138 DraftKings points with a second round finish. Before that, he scored 110 points in a decision win, so he’s shown a huge DFS ceiling. Now, he gets a UFC newcomer and this looks like a good bounce back spot for Gravely after suffering his first career KO loss to Maness. Averaging 5.6 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, Gravely offers a massive wrestling upside along with a knack for finishing. He can score well whether he gets a finish or wins by decision, especially on DraftKings when fights go the distance. With that said, he’s only been to one decision in his last 12 fights and it’s rare for him to require the judges. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 31% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in the first round.
Oliveira looks like a submission or bust type of play, but 16 of his 18 pro wins have notably come early, and Gravely has been prone to getting submitted in the past with 5 of his 7 career losses ending by submissions. Oliveira’s DWCS decision win would have scored 79 DraftKings points and 66 points on FanDuel so he hasn’t shown us he can score well without a finish, but his grappling heavy style does lend itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system the longer fights go. While the potential for a submission is there, this looks like an incredibly tough matchup for Oliveira to make his UFC debut as he’s only fought once in the last 25 months. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #7
Jack Della Maddalena
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Della Maddalena had been scheduled to face Warlley Alves here, but Alves withdrew and Rodriguez stepped in on January 14th.
Coming off a September 2021 brawling decision win on DWCS, Della Maddalena extended his winning streak to 10 after losing his first two pro fights back in 2016. That recent decision was the first time he’s ever required the judges and only the second time he’s seen the third round, with the first coming in a R3 KO loss in his 2016 pro debut. Despite not getting a finish, Della Maddalena put on an impressive performance against a tough opponent who had never been finished in his career. He finished ahead in significant strikes 108-64 and in total strikes 113-87. While failing to land any of his three takedown attempts, he did stuff three of the four attempts against him. He also showed the ability to get up off his back and defend submissions, but his most impressive attribute was clearly his boxing.
Just before going on DWCS, Della Maddalena increased the Australian orphan population as he emphatically defended the Eternal MMA Welterweight belt for the 5th time. The championship defense lasted just 72 seconds as he finished it with a deadly combination of punches that cadavered his opponent on the feet in a highlight reel finish. Looking back one fight further, Della Maddalena landed a second round knockout in a fight where he started slow, a habit he tends to show more often.
Outside of one fight in England, Della Maddalena has spent his entire career fighting out of Australia inthe same promotion that brought us the great Casey O’Neill. He’s a BJJ brown belt and former rugby player, with a background in Judo and boxing.
Pete Rodriguez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)A curious case of getting an early shot in the UFC with just four pro fights on his record, Rodriguez’s entire four fight career has lasted less than five total minutes. He’s won all four of his fights by KO in the first half of round one, with fight times of 141, 41, 10, and 85 seconds. However, he’s also been fighting out of the iKon Fighting Federation inside of a boxing ring against opponents who entered with records of 5-1, 1-0, 0-1, and 2-2. We have no idea how he’ll look against legitimate competition or what his cardio will look like after the first round.
This will be just his third fight down at 170 lb, after his first two pro fights were at 175 lb for Catchweight bouts. Most of his amateur career was spent up at 185 lb and even competed up at 205 lb, which explains his massive physique at 170 lb.
With so little to go off of, Rodriguez remains somewhat of a mystery, but he looks to be a one-dimensional power puncher who’s yet to face any adversity in his career. There’s no denying how dangerous he looks early in fights, but all bets are off after that.
Fight Prediction:
Della Maddalena will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach.
The experience difference in this matchup is massive as Della Maddalena defended the Eternal MMA Welterweight belt more times than Rodriguez has fought as a pro. With one combined decision between the two of them, it would be really surprising to see this fight go the distance or even make it to the third round. We see Della Maddalena survive the initial attack of Rodriguez and land a second round knockout.
Our favorite bet here is “Della Maddalena R2 KO” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
As the most likely fight on the slate to end early by a wide margin, this definitely looks like one to target. Della Maddalena has only been to one decision in his 12 fight career and enters on a 10 fight winning streak. While he’s shown himself to be a slow starter at times, he also has five first round knockouts to his name, along with another five finishes in round two. He landed a respectable 108 significant strikes in his only career fight to go the distance. He now faces an opponent who’s never been in a pro fight that lasted longer than 141 seconds. We expect this fight to end in the first two rounds and the winner should put up a solid score. We believe Della Maddalena’s experience will overcome the power of Rodriguez, and we pick Della Maddalena to finish this with a second round knockout. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 33% chance it comes in round one.
Rodriguez has been a knockout machine in his abbreviated four fight career with all of his fights ending in knockout victories with fight times of 141, 41, 10, and 85 seconds. While he’s a long shot to keep that streak going in what will be a major step up in competition, if he does win you can expect it to come from an early KO, which would undoubtedly propel him into the optimal lineup at his dirt cheap price tag. The fact that both of these two fighters are making their respective UFC debuts adds to the uncertainty, but it would be shocking to see this go the distance. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #6
Michael Morales
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut with a perfect 12-0 pro record, Morales is fresh off a decision win on DWCS last September. That was just the second time he’s required the judges in his career as he had landed eight straight finishes leading up to the fight. Morales controlled the majority of that fight and really took over in the second round. He finished ahead in significant strikes just 53-52, while leading in total strikes 92-67 and on takedowns 4-0 with five and a half minutes of control time. Morales looked very patient in that fight and showed a well rounded game with both his striking and his wrestling. He’s got a good reach and does a pretty good job of utilizing it. He looked close to getting a finish late in the second round, but simply ran out of time.
Morales’ approached his second most recent fight in a similar fashion. He chose patience early on and then really took charge in the second round, ultimately getting the finish. That win came over a late replacement who didn’t appear to have much to offer. Morales has had subpar levels of competition so far in his career, having only fought a few opponents with any notable experience. Here are the records of the opponents he’s faced coming into his fights: 1-2, 2-3, 3-1, 3-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-0, 2-3, 2-0, 6-5, 8-5, and 9-3. He’ll be taking a major step up in competition for his UFC debut.
While Morales is a former Ecuadorian national wrestling champion, he relies primarily on his striking, as 9 of his 12 wins have come by KO, including five in the first round and four in round two. He also has a first round submission win on his record to go along with a pair of decisions. Morales is a patient striker, one who likes to feel out his opponents early on as he gets his range, which generally makes him slower to get started.. However, once he smells blood in the water he really lets his hands go. One could say calculated aggression is a fair way to describe his style. He’s primarily a boxer but will utilize his wrestling background when needed.
Trevin Giles
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Moving down to 170 lb for the first time in his career following the first ever KO loss, Giles has fought as high as 205 lb once in the past (in his UFC debut) but his other 16 pro fights have all been at 185 lb. The recent loss that sent him fleeing the Middleweight division came against Dricus Du Plessis, who was making just his second UFC appearance. Du Plessis outlanded Giles 25-10 in significant strikes, while tacking on two takedowns, all before dropping Giles with a clean right hand and then quickly finishing him with ground and pound. Giles likes to keep his hands low and Du Plessis made him pay for it. Considering that this was the first time he’d ever been knocked out, it will be interesting to see if he continues to keep his hands low moving forward.
Prior to the loss, Giles was on a three fight winning streak since getting submitted in the third round of back-to-back fights in 2019. Those are the only other two times Giles has lost in his career as he now owns a 14-3 pro record. He has six wins by KO, five submissions, and three decision victories. He bounced back from those losses with a split decision win over James Krause, who took the fight on one day’s notice and fought up a weight class. He was originally there to corner Youssef Zalal. Then, Giles knocked out Bevon Lewis in the third round before defeating Roman Dolidze in a decision in his last win. Dolidze was dropping down to 185 lb for the first time and took the fight on short notice after Du Plessis withdrew, although that matchup was later rebooked.
Giles had been to the third round in six straight fights leading up to his recent R2 KO loss and his last 11 have all made it out of the first round. Three of those 11 ended in round two (2-1), five ended in round three (3-2), and three went the distance (3-0).
Giles infamously fainted just before a fight against Kevin Holland in August of 2020 and was rushed to the hospital instead of fighting. His heart had stopped multiple times at the hospital while he was under observation, but he appears to have made it past the health scare. Considering Giles is moving down to 170 lb for the first time, it will be essential to monitor him closely at weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” but Morales will have a 5” reach advantage and is seven years younger than the 29-year-old Giles.
Anytime you get a fighter moving down a weight class for the first time it adds some uncertainty to the equation. It will be interesting to see how Giles’ chin and cardo hold up after cutting the weight, and how he responds mentally after suffering the first KO loss of his career. Both guys in this matchup generally come into fights with a patient approach and we expect to see a feeling out process early on. Morales will have a significant reach advantage so it will be interesting to see how quick Giles looks at 170 lb. There’s a good chance he will also have a speed advantage, which could make it tough for Giles to close the distance and dangerous for him to keep his hands low. With so much uncertainty surrounding how Giles will look down at 170 lb and how Morales will look against a step up in competition, this is a tricky one to predict and we could see it going either way, but we’d be somewhat surprised if it ended in the first round. We expect to see either a late KO or more likely, for it to end in a decision. We’ll give the slight edge to Morales to get the win, but this should be an interesting fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +700.
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DFS Implications:
Morales makes his UFC debut fresh off a decision win on DWCS with a perfect 12-0 record. His 83% finishing rate obviously comes with some scoring upside, however his patient approach early on in fights somewhat limits his ceiling. With that said, half of his career wins have come in the first round, although most of those were against low level opponents without much experience. It will be interesting to see how his finishing ability translates to the UFC. His recent decision win on DWCS would have been good for 89 DraftKings points and 76 points on FanDuel and while landing four takedowns in that fight. It seems like he’s generally looking for knockouts on the feet, although he does have a background in wrestling. Still, at just 22 years old, Morales is an interesting young prospect with good hands and no obvious holes in his game, so he’ll be an interesting guy to keep an eye on in the UFC. With Morales making his debut and Giles dropping down a weight class for the first time, this is a high variance spot with a wide range of outcomes, and it makes sense to have some exposure to each fighter in tournaments as this could go a lot of ways. We don’t see either guy scoring particularly well in a decision, so we’ll likely need a finish for either to be useful in tournaments. The odds imply Morales has a 52% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
With all eight of his UFC fights making it out of the first round and six of his last seven seeing round three, Giles has generally not been a major DFS contributor, though he has been useful as a value play at times. He did put up a massive 124 point DK score in his 2017 UFC debut on the back of five takedowns and a second round KO. However, he only has three combined takedowns in his last seven fights since then and you’re relying on him to get a finish to score well. He averages just 3.14 significant strikes landed per minute, and his two third round KO wins still scored 85 and 92 points on DraftKings. Considering he’s dropping down to 170 lb for the first time in his career, we don’t fully know what to expect out of Giles here. There’s a chance he could look really powerful at 170 lb or really slow. That uncertainty increases the chances for a finish only a little, but it’s still more likely than not that this fight goes the distance according to the odds. Giles’ opponent Morales has not only never been finished, he’s never lost a fight, but this is also his UFC debut. That only adds to the uncertainty in this matchup and you should treat this like a high variance spot where both guys need a finish to be useful in tournaments. The odds imply Giles has a 48% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Raoni Barcelos
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Barcelos had originally been scheduled to face Trevin Jones back on December 18th but Jones dropped out and Henry stepped in on short notice. The fight was then canceled due to COVID protocols and pushed back to January 15th. Finally, it was rescheduled to appear on this slate. While Henry was originally stepping in on just 10 days’ notice, he’s now had an additional month to prepare.
Looking to bounce back from his first loss in his last 10 fights dating back to 2014, Barcelos dropped a decision to a tough opponent in Timur Valiev in just the second loss of his career. Barcelos came out flat in the fight and lacked any sense of urgency throughout the match. He also failed to attempt a takedown for the first time in his UFC career after landing 9 on 16 attempts in his first five UFC fights. He did look close to landing a finish late in the second round as he dropped Valiev twice in a row, but then he took top position on the mat and literally laid on top of Valiev, motionless, for the final 30 seconds. It appeared that just a few more ground strikes might have gotten the fight stopped but in bizarre fashion, it seemed that he may have just punched himself out. He then made very little effort to win the fight in the third round despite it clearly being tied up at that point. It’s hard to know what was going on in his head, dropping out of a fight four months earlier due to COVID. It’s unknown if his cardio was negatively affected or if it had something to do with his opponent, but it would be surprising if Barcelos doesn't bounce back in his next fight. He finished behind in significant strikes 77-69, with two knockdowns and zero takedown attempts. For comparison, he finished his previous fight ahead in significant strikes 120-49, while going 2 for 4 on takedowns and he averages 5.39 SSL/min and 1.8 TDL/15 min on 3.2 attempts over the course of his career.
That loss marked the third straight decision Barcelos had been to, after landing four consecutive finishes in later rounds before that. His previous two decision wins came against genuinely tough opponents who entered with records of 13-2 and 13-1 respectively. He’s now 16-2 as a pro, with eight wins by KO, two by submission, and six by decision. His only career early-loss was a 2014 R2 rear-naked choke, while his most recent loss was the only time he’s ever had a decision go against him.
Barcelos tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on as his last nine matches have all made it out of the first round, with six of those making it to round three, five ending in decisions, and two resulting in 25 minute decisions prior to joining the UFC. All three of his early wins in the UFC occurred after the nine minute mark.
Starting his career at 145 lb, Barcelos dropped down to 135 lb following his UFC debut and he doesn’t appear to have any plans of ever moving back up. He’s had no issues making weight since the drop and looks great at Bantamweight. A BJJ black belt with a wrestling background, Barcelos is a well rounded fighter who has solid striking, wrestling, and submission skills. While he underwhelmed in his last performance, this looks like a prime match to bounce back against a UFC newcomer on short notice.
Victor Henry
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut, Henry is coming off an October 2021 R2 rear-naked choke victory and has impressively won 9 of his last 10 fights, with his last four wins all ending early. He did lose a decision in his second most recent match, but it’s worth noting that he also has a split-decision win over UFC fighter Kyler Phillips from 2018. In fairness, Phillips controlled him on the mat for the first round before gassing out and allowing Henry to come back and win the latter two rounds.
Henry has notably never been finished in his 11 year pro career and holds a 21-5 record with six wins by KO, eight submissions, and seven decisions. He’s another guy that rarely finishes fights in the first five minutes, with 13 of his last 14 fights making it past the first round, 10 of those saw round three, and eight went the full distance.
Henry has fought all over the world since turning pro in 2010. While the majority of his time has been spent in California and Japan, he also has fights in Russia and Dubai. Overall, he’s decently well rounded with his grappling and striking but doesn’t appear to be really elite at anything. He’s a relatively patient striker and we’ve seen him get taken down with ease early in fights. At age 34, he’s getting a late start to his UFC career and appears to be more of a journeyman than an up and coming prospect. It will be interesting to see how his durability holds up as he faces the toughest test of his career on Saturday.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” and 34 years old, but Henry will have a 1” reach advantage.
This is a brutally difficult spot for Henry to make his UFC debut as he takes on a high-level opponent in Barcelos, who should be hungry to get back on track after losing his last fight in a much more difficult matchup. Barcelos can win fights both on the feet and the mat, which makes him a really difficult opponent to prepare for. We expect Barcelos to dictate the pace as he looks to make a statement here and regain his past momentum. While the fact that Henry has never been finished is slightly concerning for Barcelos’ chances of getting an early win, this is a massive step up in competition for Henry and we still like Barcelos to get a finish, most likely in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “Barcelos Wins by KO” at +210.
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DFS Implications:
After losing for the first time in his last 10 fights, Barcelos is in a prime spot to bounce back against a UFC newcomer. While he had an off day the last time he stepped inside the Octagon, he still nearly landed a second round finish with a pair of knockdowns on a tough opponent. He averages a healthy 5.39 SSL/min and 1.8 TDL/15 min, in addition to the fact that three of his five UFC wins have come early. In those finishes he scored 112, 113, and 110 DraftKings points, with two ending in round two and the other occurring in the third round. He’s proven that he can score well with a finish at any point and he still scored 96 points in his last decision win. While he has shown a decent floor in decisions, we don’t see him ending up in tournament winning lineups without a finish here. The odds imply he has an 80% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 26% chance it comes in the first round.
Debuts don’t get much tougher than this as Henry faces a high-level opponent in Barcelos. It’s really hard to see him pulling off the upset here and Barcelos has only been finished once in his 18 fight career. Henry didn’t look completely terrible in his pre-UFC tape and he could be in play for future slates. However, even at his low ownership he isn’t really a fighter we're interested in having much if any exposure to in DFS on this card. With that said, flukey things happen all the time in fights, so if you want to sprinkle him into a lineup or two as a leverage play off of a popular favorite, we get it. Still, we pick Barcelos to win handedly here. The odds imply Henry has a 20% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it occurs in round one.
Fight #4
Said Nurmagomedov
5th UFC Fight (3-1)After landing an emphatic R1 KO over UFC newcomer Mark Striegl, Nurmagomedov extends his inactivity to 15 months without fighting. He had been scheduled to face Jack Shore in September 2021 but ended up withdrawing from the match. In his win over Striegl, Nurmagomedov clipped Striegl coming in and then quickly finished him with punches as Striegl looked desperately to grab a leg. The fight lasted just 51 seconds and was just the fourth KO win of Nurmagomedov’s career.
Prior to that, Nurmagomedov suffered just his second career loss and first since 2014 after he had previously won seven in a row. That loss came in a close decision against a really tough opponent in Raoni Barcelos. Nurmagomedov actually finished ahead in significant strikes 55-42 and in total strikes 77-52, but Barcelos led in takedowns 2-0 with a few minutes of control time. That loss occurred back in December 2019, showing that Nurmagomedov has now only fought once in the last 25 months.
His second most recent win was also a first round KO which came via a spinning back kick against Ricardo Ramos in February 2019. While Nurmagomedov’s last two wins both ended in R1 KO/TKOs, six of his seven fights prior to that went the distance, including a split-decision in his 2018 UFC debut.
Now 14-2 as a pro, Nurmagomedov has seven finishes and seven decisions. Notably, all seven of his early wins have occurred in the first round, with four KOs and three submissions. It’s worth pointing out that three of those came in his first three fights, and 9 of his last 13 fights have gone to the judges. Both of his losses came in decisions and he’s never been finished.
As you’ll likely hear at the beginning of his UFC fights, Nurmagomedov is unrelated to Khabib Nurmagomedov, but they are both from Dagestan Russia. As well as being friends, there appears to be several people who claim they’re actually cousins. Regardless, they train with different teams and have completely different fighting styles. Said throws tons of spinning attacks and flashy kicks as opposed to the smothering Sambo heavy style of Khabib.
Nurmagomedov had been fighting at 135 lb before joining the UFC, but attempted to move down to 125 lb for his UFC debut. Despite winning his debut in a split decision, he decided to move back up to 135 lb afterwards, which makes sense as he’s already lean for the 135 lb division.
After going just 1 for 11 on takedowns in his UFC debut, Nurmagomedov has only attempted two takedowns in his last three fights and failed to land either of those. He’s only landed just 1 takedown on 13 attempts in four UFC fights.
Cody Stamann
10th UFC Fight (5-3-1)Looking to bounce back from the first pair of consecutive losses in his career, Stamann has opted to stay at 135 lb. In his nine UFC fights, he’s gone 3-2-1 at 135 lb and 2-1 at 145 lb. His most recent loss came at 135 lb against a relentless Merab Dvalishvili in May 2021. Dvalishvili showed improved striking in that fight as he outlanded Stamann 71-48 in significant strikes and 178-73 in total strikes. Dvalishvili also landed 5 takedowns on 11 attempts, while Stamann landed just 1 of his 4 attempts.
His second most recent loss came in a short notice fight up at 145 lb against Jimmie Rivera in July 2020. Stamann struggled to get that fight to the mat as he landed just one of his five takedown attempts. Rivera led in significant strikes 48-26 and in total strikes 90-62, while landing two takedowns of his own on three attempts.
Prior to the pair of losses, Stamann was 5-1-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming against Aljamain Sterling, who finished Stamann in the second round with a kneebar, marking the only time Stamann has even been finished. Stamann’s other eight UFC fights have all gone the distance and the last time he finished an opponent came in a 2017 R2 KO in his last fight before joining the UFC.
Now 19-4-1 as a pro, Stamann does have eight finishes on his record but all of those came prior to joining the UFC with five coming in his first seven pro fights against lesser experienced opponents. He’s a great wrestler with decent striking, but he’s never been a threat to end fights early. He has six wins by KO, two by submission, and eleven decisions. Three of his losses have gone the distance, with just one submission loss.
Stamann has talked about how tough the weight cut down to 135 lb is, and while he seems to prefer to fight at 145 lb he must feel like he needs to cut down to 135 lb to be more competitive. Worth noting is his most dominating performance of his UFC career that came in his debut, fighting at 145 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Nurmagomedov will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
This sets up as a classic wrestler versus striker matchup where Nurmagomedov will want to keep the fight standing where he should have a marked striking advantage. We expect to see a slower paced fight that will inevitably go the distance and end in a close, low-volume decision. Who wins will depend on how much wrestling success Stamann can find as Nurmagomedov has only been taken down twice on seven attempts (71% takedown defense) in his four UFC fights. Both takedowns came against Raoni Barcelos, who has a 56% career takedown accuracy compared to the 44% accuracy of Stamann. Nurmagomedov loves spinning attacks and it’s always somewhat dangerous to turn your back on a wrestler. If Stamann can time his takedown attempts well then that could provide some additional openings. However, if Nurmagomedov can keep this fight standing he should be able to outland his way to a decision win. Overall, this feels like a coinflip and the only prediction we’re confident in making is that it goes the distance, but forced to choose we’ll say Stamann is able to get the fight to the ground and pull off the upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -225.
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DFS Implications:
Nurmagomedov has only landed one takedown in four UFC fights and hasn’t topped 65 significant strikes in any of those matches. All seven of his early career wins have come in the first round, and he’s been a round one or bust DFS play thus far. With that said, his last two wins have both come in round one, although one of those was against a fighter making his UFC debut and the other was against Ricardo Ramos, who has been finished in the first round in three of his last four losses. He now faces a wrestler in Cody Stamann who has never been knocked out in his career and only submitted once. All in all, this looks like a terrible spot for Nurmagomedov to excel in DFS. The fact that his last two wins both came in the first round could slightly boost his ownership, but the book is out on Stamann and everyone knows his fights essentially always end in decisions, so we don’t see the field chasing Nurmagomedov’s past scores too much. He scored just 69 DraftKings points in his lone UFC decision win, which confirms the idea he needs a finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Stamann has failed to score above 84 DraftKings points in his last four wins, and his only exceptional DFS performance came via a decision win in his 2017 UFC debut against Terrion Ware—who’s lost six straight fights beginning with the loss to Stamann and is no longer in the UFC. Stamann landed eight takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control time to go with 124 total strikes and 94 significant strikes as he put up 126 DraftKings points in the victory. Since then he’s scored 84, 72, 52, and 84 points in his last four wins. At his cheaper price tag, it’s possible Stamann can serve as a value play with a decision win, but that would require the majority of the other dogs on the slate to fail to keep Stamann in play for tournament winning lineups. In Nurmagomedov’s lone UFC loss, his opponent scored just 64 DraftKings points, showing that he’s a tough guy to score well against. We expect this fight to bust for DFS purposes, but there’s a slight chance Stamann can come in motivated to end the first losing streak of his career and put on a more dominating wrestling performance than we expect. He’s undoubtedly a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel based on his wrestling-heavy approach. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #3
Michel Pereira
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Pereira had been scheduled to face Muslim Salikhov last week, but Andre Fialho has stepped in on short notice after Salikhov withdrew. The fight was then moved to this week’s card due to COVID protocols after someone in Pereira’s camp tested positive for COVID.
Entering this matchup on a three fight winning streak, Pereira is fresh off a pair of decision wins over a couple of dangerous strikers in Niko Price and Khaos Williams. Prior to that, he landed a late third round submission win over Zelim Imadaev, who is 0-3 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since. Pereira’s first UFC win also occurred early when he fought in his 2019 debut against Danny Roberts, who’s been finished in all four of his UFC losses. Following his winning debut, Pereira lost a decision against undersized Tristan Connelly, who was making his debut and fighting up a weight class in a fight where Pereira missed weight. Pereira’s next fight saw him winning handedly until he lost via R3 DQ for an illegal knee against Diego Sanchez.
A wildman that mixes in crazy maneuvers such as jumping off the cage and backflipping onto grounded opponents, Pereira’s unconventional movement combined with his unique combination of speed, size, and power, make him a tough puzzle to crack. He only absorbs an average of 3.28 significant strikes per minute. We’ve seen him dial back the insanity knob in recent fights, but he still backflipped onto a grounded Niko Price in his last match and appeared to partially land on his face. This would normally constitute an illegal strike but who knows if the referees even know how to officiate this guy.
In his 39 pro fights, Pereira has only been officially finished early twice—at least by his opponents. Those came in a 2018 R1 KO against Dusko Todorovic and a 2014 R2 armbar much earlier in his career. He’s also had two No Contests, including the time a fight was stopped when he was “Injured by the Cage.” His other eight losses all ended in decisions. Correction: It was his opponent, also named Pereira who was injured by the cage in that fight.
While his last five fights have surprisingly all made it to the third round, three ending in decisions, 17 of his 26 career wins have come early with 10 KOs and 7 submissions. If we look at his nine fights prior to the recent five, six of those nine ended in the first round, one ended in R2, another in R3 and the last in R5. So, of his last 14 fights, only three have gone the distance, all of those occurring in his last five. At this point, he’s either settling into grinding out decisions or he’s due for a finish.
Despite his chaotic behavior and unusual bag of tricks, Pereira holds black belts in BJJ and Karate and has impressive speed, knockout power, and submission skills. Huge at 170 lb, he’s fought anywhere from 170 lb to 204 lb in the past. We haven’t seen him land a ton of striking volume since joining the UFC. However, he did land a career best 92 significant strikes in his last fight, albeit against Niko Price, who is known for absorbing a ton of strikes as he tends to fight in brawls. Pereira has also landed at least one takedown in five straight fights, with two or more in four of those.
Andre Fialho
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a R1 KO win over former UFC fighter Stefan Sekulic, Fialho landed an elbow off of one leg as Sekulic looked to take him down, then completing the finish with two stiff right hands as Sekulic fell to the mat. That was Fialho’s fourth straight knockout victory with two of those coming against former UFC fighters as he also has a R2 KO win over known KO receiver, James Vick. Fialho’s last two losses also came against fighters with UFC experience, showing that he’s been facing a solid level of competition.
His last loss was a 2020 decision against former UFC fighter Antonio dos Santos Jr., who requested that the fight be moved up to a 180 lb catchweight after it had been scheduled at 170 lb. Dos Santos checked in right at 180 lb for that fight, while Fialho was just 177.8 lb, giving Dos Santos a size advantage. Dos Santos was able to land a ton of kicks on Fialho, although Fialho came close to finishing Dos Santos in the second round. Fialho gassed out hard in round three but Dos Santos was also too tired to capitalize. They both limped to the finish line where Dos Santos won a unanimous decision. That fight took place 15 months ago and was the last time Fialho was involved in a fight that made it past the midway mark, so it’s our best indication of what his cardio looks like late in fights. Keep in mind it took place up at 180 lb as opposed to 170 lb where he typically fights.
That fight came at the tail end of a three fight losing streak, one that began a year and a half earlier against now UFC fighter Chris Curtis, who finished Fialho in the third round via TKO. Fialho again looked to tire out late in that fight as Curtis put it on him and saw Fialho shooting for half-hearted desperation takedowns towards the end. Curtis finally finished him with just 43 seconds remaining on the clock. In his next fight, Fialho lost a 2-round decision, however the results were then overturned to a No Contest when his opponent tested positive for steroids.
Fialho has a background in boxing and trains out of Sanford MMA. He’s also a BJJ purple belt, but he’s not much of a submission threat with just one win by submission on his record. Now 14-3 as a pro, he’s primarily an early knockout threat, with 11 wins by KO and two by decision to go along with his lone submission victory. Two of his three losses have come by KO, and one official decision loss. The other was later overturned to a No Contest. Ten of his 12 finishes have occurred in the first round, while the other two ended in the first half of the second round. He’s 2-2 in fights that have lasted longer than 10 minutes and has had issues gassing out in the third round of fights.
Fight Prediction:
Pereira will have a 1” height advantage, but Fialho will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both of these guys have shown questionable cardio late in fights, but Fialho has looked especially tired when fights hit the third round. If Pereira can preserve his cardio to some extent then he should find a good opportunity to land a third round finish against a gassed opponent making his UFC debut. However, that’s still a big if as Pereira may very well also be exhausted by the third round. Pereira should have a major grappling advantage, so it would make sense for him to look to take this fight to the ground against a boxer in Fialho. If Fialho is forced to defend grappling attacks we could see his gas tank empty even quicker, especially if Pereira can get him down early and force him to use his energy to try and return to his feet. Fialho’s lone hope to win this fight is to land a knockout in the first round and a half as Pereira has notably only been knocked out once in 39 fights. The odds are stacked against Fialho in this one so we like Pereira’s chances to get a finish in the back half of this fight as long as he doesn’t also gas out.
Our favorite bet here is “Pereira R3 Win” at +1000.
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DFS Implications:
This looks like a step down in competition for Pereira after he faced Khaos Williams and Niko Price in his last two fights. While Fialho looks dangerous on the feet early on, he has serious cardio concerns in the back half of fights, which could very well present the opportunity for Pereira to land a late finish. Fialho has also looked willing to absorb a fair number of strikes as he looks to land early knockouts. We could also see Pereira land a decent amount of striking volume against this UFC newcomer who accepted the fight just last week with little time to prepare for Pereira’s unique fighting style. While Pereira has been somewhat consistent in DFS with DraftKings scores of 91, 62, 86, and 102 in his four UFC wins, we’ve yet to see him hit a ceiling performance as he’s generally more concerned with putting on a good show than actually landing a finish. That can make him an incredibly frustrating fighter to play in DFS, but going against a UFC newcomer on less than two week’s notice looks like a prime opportunity for Pereira to finally hit his ceiling. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in the first round.
Making his UFC debut on less than two week’s notice, Fialho looks like an early KO or bust fighter who absorbs more strikes than he lands. He’ll occasionally mix in takedowns but isn’t really a submission threat on the ground. He’s shown highly questionable cardio late in fights and hasn’t looked dangerous beyond the second round. He does have solid power, but he’s a little too willing to absorb blows to try and set up knockout shots of his own. That results in him absorbing a high number of strikes. He’s also prone to getting his lead leg chewed up. Going against a UFC veteran who has only been knocked out once in 39 pro fights, this looks like a really tough spot for Fialho to succeed. With that said, he has a puncher's chance to get it done so we can’t entirely eliminate the possibility that he catches Pereira with something clean to pull off the upset in an early KO. That’s really the only way we see him winning this fight. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Brandon Moreno
12th UFC Fight (7-2-2)Fighting for the third time in the last 13 months, these two know each other quite well at this point. The first fight ended in a draw due to Figueiredo being deducted a point for a groin shot in the third round. It was a little surprising that he wasn’t let off with a warning considering it was his first low blow of the match as we generally see fighters get not just one but two warnings before a point is deducted. He had also landed an eye poke earlier in the second round but those are two different fouls and generally unrelated. Prior to the eye poke, the judges scored the fight 49-46, 48-47, and 48-47 in Figueiredo’s favor.
In that fight, Figueiredo aggressively hunted for a KO in the first round as he consistently pushed forward, showing little respect for anything that was coming his way. Moreno did a good job of using his speed, movement, and reach advantage to make it difficult for Figueiredo to close the distance early, but as the fight went on, it turned into more of a brawl. Moreno looked like the fresher fighter in the fourth round but Figueiredo came out seemingly recharged in the final round. Moreno looked to be dealing with some sort of forearm injury at that point—although later he said it was actually his shoulder. It appeared Figueiredo clearly won the 5th round as he doubled Moreno’s number of significant strikes landed while also adding a takedown. Two of the judges agreed and had it not been for judge Junichiro Kamijo ruling the 5th round for Moreno, Figueiredo would have won the decision even after the point deduction. With that said, it was a close fight with Figueiredo leading in significant strikes 137-132 and in total strikes 147-139. Moreno led on takedowns, landing 4 of his 8 attempts with over three minutes of control time, while Figueiredo went 2 for 4 with just under a minute of control time.
It’s also worth mentioning that Figueiredo was secretly hospitalized the night before that fight due to a stomach infection, which was reportedly related to his second weight cut in three weeks. The fight was in jeopardy of even happening, but Figueiredo toughed it out and went five rounds despite his condition. Though being hospitalized just hours before, Figueiredo was the first fighter to hit the scale leading up to that fight. He looked fine and even came in a half pound under weight with no issues.
In his most recent battle with the scale, Figueiredo was the last fighter to weigh in, looking terrible and actually requiring a spotter to follow him onto the stage to make sure he didn’t collapse. He went straight to the shame box, where he never even put his hands in the air and was only able to hit the weight mark after dropping trow, and then staggered off the stage. That terrible weigh-in unsurprisingly carried over into the fight as we saw Figueiredo throw only 13 strikes (7 landed) in the first round contrasting the 55 strikes he threw (28 landed) in their first matchup. We also saw Moreno clip Figueiredo in the first round, with Figueiredo reacting more than we’ve seen in the past to what seemed like a less significant strike. Moreno quickly took the striking lead 25-7 in round one while tacking on that knockdown. Round two was much closer, as Figueiredo came out more aggressive and actually led in significant strikes, landing 13-10. Both fighters landed a takedown, however Moreno finished the round with over three minutes of control time. Figueiredo lacked his normal explosiveness off his back as we saw him become more complacent with the position than he normally is. The third round started slow, but within 80 seconds Moreno was able to take Figueiredo down, immediately take his back, and work his way to a rear-naked choke that forced a tap midway through the round.
Figueiredo looked like a shell of himself in that fight and the numbers agree. If we compare Figueiredo’s striking output between the two fights, he landed just 24 significant strikes and threw just 36 in the second fight (1.93 SSL/min and 2.90 thrown/min) after landing 137 of 238 in their first fight (5.48 SSL/min and 9.52 thrown/min). With this, he landed just 35% as many significant strikes per minute in the rematch and threw just 30% as many per minute. Clearly he wasn’t right for that fight and while everyone is hyping this up as the trilogy matchup between Figueiredo and Moreno, it should really be looked at as the trilogy matchup between Figueiredo and the scale. In fairness to Moreno, he very well could be Figueiredo’s kryptonite as he’s extremely durable, has excellent grappling, and isn’t afraid to stand and trade with Figueiredo. With that said, if it wasn’t for a combination of questionable judging and a quick trigger finger from the ref on a point deduction in their first matchup, we likely would never have gotten an immediate rematch, let alone a trilogy. The primary conclusion from the rematch shouldn’t be that Moreno is the superior fighter, but rather that Figueiredo has an incredibly tough time getting down to 125 lb and when he looks terrible on the scale, we should expect him to look terrible the next day in the fight.
Prior to taking on Figueiredo twice, Moreno was credited with a R1 KO against Brandon Royval after Royval dislocated his shoulder just before the end of R1. To Moreno’s credit, he controlled Royval on the ground for an extended period of time before the injury, but he would not have gotten the R1 finish without the injury.
Moreno came into the UFC in 2016 on an 8 fight winning streak and submitted Louis Smolka in the first round of his debut with a guillotine choke. He then beat Ryan Benoit in a decision before getting another submission win in his third UFC fight—this time with a R2 rear-naked choke.
The explosive start to his UFC career was enough to land him a main event spot against Sergio Pettis, which Moreno went on to lose in a decision. He followed that up with his only other UFC loss to date, in a 3-round decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja.
Following the pair of losses, Moreno fought a 2019 match in the LFA where he notched a R4 KO. He then returned to the UFC with a split-decision draw against Askar Askarov. After the draw, he won a pair of decisions before being credited with the TKO against Royval.
A BJJ black belt, Moreno is extremely durable and has never been finished in 25 pro fights, with all five of his career losses going the distance. Although he was submitted in the second round on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016, the first time he faced Alexandre Pantoja, that fight was an exhibition match as opposed to an official pro fight and doesn’t show up on his stats. Six of his last eight UFC fights have made it to the judges, after two of his first three ended with early wins. Looking at his entire career, Moreno is 19-5-2, with three wins by KO, 11 submissions, and five decisions. All five of his official losses have gone the distance and two of his last six fights have ended in draws.
Deiveson Figueiredo
13th UFC Fight (9-2-1)Figueiredo would probably be the biggest beneficiary of a 130 lb division as he routinely struggles with the cut down to 125 lb. However, when he is able to make the mark without killing himself he looks unstoppable as he steamrolls his way over the competition. Prior to his recent submission loss, the only time he had previously been defeated in 22 pro fights was a 2019 decision against Jussier Formiga in a low-volume grappling match where Figueiredo was taken down three times and controlled for nearly half the fight. Figueiredo bounced back from what was his first career loss with a decision win over a really tough Alexandre Pantoja, before landing four straight finishes in the first two rounds leading up to the matchups with Moreno.
For this fight, Figueiredo has completely changed up his preparations as he’s been training with Henry Cejudo in the US instead of Brazil where he had previously opened up his own gym. He’s talked about how he’s worked on improving his weight as well, but the proof will come when he steps on the scale Friday.
Prior to the pair of fights against Morena, Figueiredo had successfully defended his title for the first time against Alex Perez after winning the vacant Flyweight belt against Joseph Benavidez, who he finished in back to back fights—most recently with a R1 rear-naked choke in July of 2020. Figueiredo had previously knocked Benavidez out in R2 of their prior match, but because Figueiredo missed weight in that first fight, he was ineligible for the belt.
Also a BJJ black belt, seven of Figueiredo’s nine UFC wins have come early, four by KO and three by submission. All four of the KOs came in R2, while all three submissions came in R1. Looking at his entire pro career, 17 of his 20 career wins came early with nine KOs and eight submissions. Eleven of those early finishes came in R1. This will be Figueiredo’s sixth straight 5-round fight, although he didn’t make it out of the first two rounds in the first three.
The difference in weigh-ins between the two fights against Moreno was massive. Figueiredo was the first one on the scale in their first fight, even after being hospitalized the night before, and he looked fine as he actually came in a half pound under the limit. In contrast, he was the last one on the scale in their most recent fight and looked absolutely terrible as he had to be helped onto the stage. It will be critical to monitor him closely at the weigh-ins leading up to this fight.
Fight Prediction:
Moreno will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is six years younger than the 34-year-old Figueiredo.
Figueiredo is the more dangerous fighter in this matchup and no matter how many times these two square off, that simple fact will never change. With that said, Moreno appears to be Figueiredo’s toughest matchup in the division as he is extremely durable and is able to match Figueiredo on the mat. Figueiredo is just 3-2-1 in his career in fights that have made it past the second round and his most valuable asset is his finishing ability. If Moreno can again negate that, then we should see another close fight. We believe the results of their last matchup had more to do with Figueiredo’s brutal weight cut than anything special Moreno was doing, so the outcome of this fight will largely hinge on how Figueiredo’s weight cut goes and how he looks on the scale. If he looks good, we pick him to win this fight, most likely in a decision but potentially with a submission. However, if he again looks bad then Moreno would be our pick, most likely by decision, but potentially with another submission.
Our favorite bet here is Figueiredo’s ML at +155.
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DFS Implications:
The first time these two fought, Moreno scored 80 DraftKings points and Figueiredo scored 68. That fight ended in a draw so if the decision had gone Moreno’s way he would have scored 110 and if it had gone Figueiredo’s way he would have scored 98. The second fight was far more one sided and Moreno scored 97 DraftKings points in a third round submission victory. Moreno has shown a solid floor and a decent but unspectacular ceiling in their previous two fights. With his still pretty reasonable DFS price tag, he very likely ends up in the winning lineup with a victory here, but it’s certainly not impossible he gets outscored by the fighters priced around him and gets left out. After winning their last fight, we expect Moreno to be more popular with the field than he was the last time these two squared off when he was 35% owned as a +165 underdog priced at just $7,100. That was also notably on a 14-fight slate with three 5-round fights. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 36% chance to get a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
In his last seven wins, Figueiredo scored 92, 129, 96, 93, 81, 124, and 116 DraftKings points. The only time he failed to top 90 DraftKings points over that stretch came in a 3-round decision, which is irrelevant here in a 5-round fight. Priced at just $7,700, it’s really hard to see Figueiredo fail to crack the optimal lineup with a win here and he would have scored 98 points the first time these two fought had the decision gone his way. Moreno has been extremely durable throughout his career and has never been finished in an official pro fight, which somewhat caps Figueiredo’s scoring ceiling, but we expect to see enough action in this fight for a decision to still score fairly well. Figueiredo remains one of if not the most dangerous Flyweight on the planet and has as good a chance as anybody to hand Moreno his first early loss. While we still expect Figueiredo to be a popular play, this is probably the best buy-low opportunity you’ll ever get on him and we should see his ownership check in below where it normally does based on how their last fight went. The odds imply Figueiredo has a 39% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Ciryl Gane
8th UFC Fight (7-0)Looking to extend his perfect MMA record to 11-0, Gane notched his latest win as his 10th straight when he won the controversial Interim Heavyweight belt against Derrick Lewis back in August with a R3 KO. Gane proved to be too fast, too long, and too technical for Lewis, who simply couldn’t keep up with the fleet-footed Frenchman. Gane is an inch taller than Lewis with a 2” reach advantage and he did a great job of maximizing both as he darted in and out of Lewis’ guard, landing all 32 of his leg kick attempts. That allowed him to stay out of the pocket while chopping out Lewis’ base. Gane clearly frustrated Lewis with his speed and technical advantages combined with his defensively sound approach. Lewis had no answers in the fight as Gane outlanded him with an insane 98-16 in significant strikes and 112-16 in total strikes before knocking him out late in the third round. That fight took place in Lewis’ hometown of Houston inside the larger Octagon, which worked in Gane’s favor as he had more room to evade Lewis’ few moments of blitzing forward. This next fight takes place in the larger Octagon as well.
Prior to that finish, Gane won a pair of five-round decisions against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov. In his second most recent victory, Gane confused Volkov for five rounds as he showcased his unique combination of speed, power, movement, and technique. Volkov looked like someone had just handed him a Rubik's Cube with all the stickers peeled off as he had no clue where to begin in a striking battle against Gane. This is remarkable considering that’s generally where Volkov excels. Gane finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 135-115 and in total strikes 139-115, but he really took over in the middle rounds, dictating the action for almost the entire fight. To keep Volkov guessing, Gane attempted four takedowns but never landed any, throwing them out there more as a feint than anything else. The fight played out entirely on the feet as Volkov had requested going in.
Looking back one fight further, Gane defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a frustratingly slow paced 5-round snoozer. In Gane’s defense, he did what he needed to do, while Rozenstruik appeared to mail it in. The 25 minute, high-stakes staring contest ended with Gane ahead in significant strikes 102-42 and 128-49 in total strikes, but it felt like far fewer watching the fight. Gane also went 2 for 14 on takedowns while accruing roughly four and a half minutes of control time. Despite the lackluster performance, clearly all that mattered for Gane was getting the win, which propelled him from the #7 ranked Heavyweight to the #3 spot that Rozenstruik previously held.
Gane is now 10-0 in MMA, having turned pro just three and a half years ago in August 2018 after previously competing in Muay Thai from 2016-2018. He has four wins by KO, three by submission, and three decisions. It’s worth noting that two of his last three, and three of his last five fights have gone the distance. His last six fights have all made it past the first round, with five of those seeing a third round and two going the full five rounds.
Gane is a high-level Muay Thai striker who averages 5.37 SSL/min while only absorbing 2.40/min. He’ll also mix in grappling at times, but with just a 20% takedown accuracy, he’s failed to land a takedown in four of his last five fights. On the flip side, he’s never been taken down himself, although he’s only had to defend three takedowns since joining the UFC.
Francis Ngannou
14th UFC Fight (11-2)Finally making his long awaited first title defense, Ngannou is coming off a R2 KO win over Stipe Miocic. While that fight happened inside of the smaller Octagon at the Apex, we saw a bit of a feeling out process for the first 90 seconds before Stipe shot for a failed takedown attempt. Ngannou showed an improved takedown defense and stuffed the attempt and actually took Stipe’s back, slamming him to the mat as he landed several heavy shots. However, Stipe was able to survive and evade damage for the remainder of the round. Ngannou caught Stipe with a left hand 42 seconds into round two and while Stipe was momentarily able to return to his feet, Ngannou landed another left hand that folded Stipe back like a cheap lawn chair. The fight was immediately stopped as Ngannou punctuated the knockout with a single ground strike that almost put Stipe’s head right through the canvas.
That fight officially lasted 5 minutes and 52 seconds, which is longer than Ngannou’s previous four fights combined which lasted 20, 71, 26, and 45 seconds respectively. Since losing a 15 minute staring contest against Derrick Lewis in 2018, Ngannou has knocked out five straight opponents on his path to winning the belt. However, his activity has trailed off in recent years as he’s only fought twice in the last 31 months, and just once in each of the last two calendar years.
Ngannou exploded into the UFC in 2015 with a 5-1 record and a four fight winning streak. All of his wins had come in the first two rounds. He proceeded to win his first six UFC fights, with a pair of R2 KOs followed by four straight first round finishes (3 KOs & 1 Kimura submission). That was enough to get him a title shot against Stipe in January of 2018.
In that title fight, Stipe came in with a smart, cautious game plan, where he knew he just needed to survive the first round and control Ngannou to win the fight. Ngannou was remarkably 17 lb heavier for the match, weighing in at 263 lb to Stipe’s 246 lb. Stipe wasted no time in looking to control Ngannou as he shot for a takedown 20 seconds into the fight, right after ducking a face altering punch. Stipe momentarily grounded Ngannou, who was then able to power back up to his feet. Undeterred, Stipe shot for a second takedown nearly immediately, but Ngannou stuffed it. After dodging dangerous punches for the next minute, while not throwing many of his own, Stipe looked for his third takedown just two minutes into the match, but was only able to stall Ngannou against the cage before it was back to dodging ill-intentioned bombs in open space. Stipe landed a couple of good shots in the middle of the round, as did Ngannou, but more importantly Stipe was able to avoid the biggest haymakers from Ngannou, only getting caught by a few strikes. He then finally got Ngannou to the ground on his fourth takedown attempt with just under two minutes remaining in the round. Stipe kept him on his back for about a minute, but Ngannou was able to power back to his feet with just under 60 seconds remaining in the round. At that point it was clear Ngannou was fatigued and already slowing down. Stipe was able to capitalize by landing some solid strikes before taking Ngannou down one final time just before the first round ended.
Ngannou opened the second round with his hands on his hips and his mouth wide open, looking like a shell of himself and exponentially less dangerous. Stipe got him back to the ground midway through the second round and continued to wear on him, which continued for the remainder of the match as he cruised to a decision win. Ngannou never looked to be a threat after the first round and Stipe executed his game plan to perfection, showing that the key to beating Ngannou is simply wearing on him and surviving the first round.
Following the loss, Ngannou looked shell shocked in his next fight as he fought a bizarrely low-volume, three-round snoozer against Derrick Lewis. He outlanded Ngannou just 20-11 in strikes/significant strikes over the course of three rounds on his way to a decision win. The two guys essentially stared at each other the entire fight as there was only one second of combined control time and no takedowns in the match. Herb Dean even paused to fight at one point to tell the fighters that they needed to engage.
Ngannou snapped out of it in his next fight, as he knocked out Curtis Blaydes in 45 seconds. He then topped that with a 26 second finish of Cain Velasquez, before finishing Junior Dos Santos in 71 seconds, and then destroying Jairzinho Rozenstruik in just 20 seconds. After four straight first round knockouts, Ngannou then waited for the Cormier/Stipe trilogy to play out as he was next in line for a title shot. The waiting paid off as he won the belt from Stipe in March 2021.
Now 16-3 as a pro, Ngannou has 12 KOs and four submission wins. Three of the four submissions came in his first five pro fights and outside of landing a 2016 Kimura to prevent a takedown, Ngannou is really just a knockout threat. All three of his losses have gone the distance as he’s never been finished. He’s also never won a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes. Eight of Ngannou’s last nine wins have ended in the first round as have 11 of his 16 career victories. His other five career wins all ended in round two.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4” but Ngannou will have a 2” reach advantage.
As these two former teammates square off to decide who will become the Heavyweight king, there are more than enough narratives circulating to get distracted from the facts. Neither one of these fighters has ever been finished and Gane has never even lost a fight. Ngannou has never won a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes. Five of Gane’s last six fights have lasted longer than 10 minutes. Not to oversimplify things, but everything suggests Ngannou needs a knockout in the first two rounds to win this fight and landing something clean on Gane inside of the larger Octagon will likely be challenging. As former training partners these guys know each other well, which may make it even tougher for Ngannou to land a clean shot early on as Gane may already have a sense of his timing. In fairness, Ngannou said they only trained together for a month back in 2019 as he prepared for the Cain Velasquez fight, but that’s still worth mentioning. While Ngannou remains the most dangerous man on the planet, this looks like his toughest test to date and we expect Gane to cautiously approach the first two rounds with his focus being on staying out of danger and using leg kicks to strike from distance, very similar to how he approached the Derrick Lewis fight. Of course, if he’s not careful, Ngannou could counter a leg kick over the top, but Gane is great at quickly moving in and out of range so it will not be an easy task. As long as Gane can survive the opening 10 minutes, which we believe he can, we expect him to win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Gane Wins by Decision” at +333.
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DFS Implications:
Gane has been a consistent albeit unspectacular DFS producer, with DraftKings scores of 89, 85, 94, 105, 56, 113, and 98 in his seven UFC fights. He’s been in three straight 5-round fights where he’s averaged 89 points and failed to top 94 in any of them. Two of those were against opponents with similar fighting profiles as Ngannou, as Lewis and Rozenstruik are both low-volume knockout specialists, although neither is as explosive as Ngannou. However, it’s fair to expect Gane to come in with a similar game plan as he did in those two fights, which doesn’t bode well for putting up a big DFS score. This fight sets up as a high stakes chess match with Gane only absorbing an average of 2.4 SS/min and Ngannou absorbing even less at just 2.04/min. The scoring will likely be dependent on the finishing bonus as we don’t expect to see a massive amount of volume. Gane should still put up a somewhat decent striking total if this goes the distance as he does a great job of peppering opponents with leg strikes. However, it’s hard to see him topping the career best 135 significant strikes he landed on a far less dangerous Volkov, and Gane still scored just 85 DraftKings points in that fight. With so many fighters on this slate, it’s less likely that a score in that range will be enough for Gane to crack the optimal lineup, so he likely needs a finish here to be useful in tournaments. Even if he does get a finish, there’s still a good chance it wouldn’t score exceptionally well on DraftKings if it comes beyond the second round. He proved that when he scored just 89 points in his recent third round finish of Derrick Lewis. In reality, it’s not at all crazy to think Gane needs a finish in the first two rounds to end up in the winning lineup, something the field will surely overlook. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to win, a 35% chance to land a finish, a 13% chance it happens in the first round, and a 10% chance it comes in round two.
Ngannou is still the most dangerous fighter on Earth and is coming off five straight knockout wins, including four in round one and the most recent in round two. It’s not surprising that he put up DraftKings scores of 110, 127, 104, 117, and 130 in those fights, especially considering three of the four R1 KOs occurred in under 60 seconds. Combine that with the fact that he’s now priced at just $7,800 on DraftKings, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he ended up being the most popular fighter on this slate, even as an underdog. Ngannou has never won a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes, but has also never been finished. His scoring is entirely tied to his ability to land a finish, so it seems fair to say that similar to Gane, he also needs to end this fight in the first two rounds to be useful. With that said, at his reduced price tag a later round finish could still score enough for him to end up in the optimal lineup, but he looks far less dangerous later on in fights and as we noted, his next late round finish will also be his first. There will be a massive gap between the implied odds that he lands a finish in the first 10 minutes and his ownership, which when combined with this really tough matchup makes for a strong argument to be well under the field on both Ngannou and Gane. The odds imply Ngannou has a 43% chance to win, a 33% chance to land a finish, a 15% chance it comes in round one, and a 9% chance it occurs in round two.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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