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Fighter Notes:
Kai Kamaka III
Unranked
1st UFC FightThis fight was announced mid week and Kamaka just fought on July 31st. His last six fights went to decision and he won the last five. He only has one early finish win in his career which was by Rear-Naked Choke submission all the back in 2014 in his second pro fight. The only time he has ever been finished early came in 2015 by R1 KO in his third pro fight.
Tony Kelley
Unranked
1st UFC Fight15 months removed from a R1 Guillotine Choke submission victory in his last fight, Kelley has only fought once since July of 2016. 2 of his last 3 fights have gone to decision, but 4 of his 5 career wins have come early. Fought Kevin Aguilar to a low volume R5 decision loss back in 2016. In his most recent fight, Kelley got taken down immediately by a fighter on short notice and seemed to get lucky to land the Guillotine Choke after spending a minute on the ground.
Parker Porter
#148 Heavyweight
1st UFC Fight13 of his 14 career fights have ended early with the only decision coming all the way back in 2008 in his second pro fight. He's won his last two fights by way of R3 KO and R2 Kimura submission. He lost the fight before that due to a R1 unfortunate disqualification for punches to the back of the head. His pro career started in 2007 but he had no fights in 2012, one in 2013, none in 2014, one in 2015, none in 2016 OR 2017, and then two in both 2018 and 2019. So despite his age and length of career he theoretically should still have some tread on the tires. Porter weighed in 23.5 pounds heavier than Daukaus (264.5 lb vs. 241 lb). Hyped by Dana.
Chris Daukaus
#135 Heavyweight
1st UFC Fight10 of his 11 career fights have ended early with the only decision coming in a 2016 win. He's won 6 of his last 7 fights with four R1 KO's during that period. Only one of his 11 career fights has made it to R3. Hyped by Dana.
Livinha Souza
#21 Strawweight
4th UFC Fight2-1 in the UFC with two of those going to decision. She was however able to get a R1 Guillotine Choke Submission in her UFC debut against Alex Chambers. She's won 4 of her last 5 fights with two of those wins coming in R1, while the other three went to decision. With 10 of her 13 career wins coming early, she's very capable of ending a fight at any moment via submission. Her only two career losses came to Brianna Van Buren and Angela Hill. She has never been finished early and has 7 R1 wins. She's a BJJ Blackbelt who is more comfortable on the ground and likes to go for submissions.
Ashley Yoder
#24 Strawweight
7th UFC Fight2-4 in the UFC with all six fights going to decision. She started her UFC career with three straight losses, however, during that span she was able to take both Angela Hill and Mackenzie Dean to decisions. She has never been finished early in her 12 fight pro career. Prior to joining the UFC she had four wins by armbar submission (three in R1 & one in R2). In her last five fights she's only allowed 4 of 14 attempted take downs (29%) including successfully defending 5 of Mackenzie Dern's 6 attempts. With very long legs she has been the taller fighter in every pro fight she's ever had. That trend continues on Saturday as she'll have a 3" height and 3.5" reach advantage.
TJ Brown
#139 Featherweight
2nd UFC FightLost his UFC debut to Jordan Griffin by way of R2 Guillotine choke but still managed to put up 63 DraftKings point in just over a round and a half by way of 7 take downs and 4 advances. Prior to that fight he was on a four fight winning streak with two R1 KO's and two arm-triangle choke submissions (one in R1 & one in R3). His last 10 fights have all ended early as well as 19 of his 21 career fights. He has six submission wins by arm-triangle choke and three by Rear-Naked Choke. He's also been submitteed by Rear-Naked Choke twice.
Danny Chavez
Unranked
1st UFC FightMaking his UFC debut after three straight R1 KO wins. It's worth noting those wins were against opponents with very limited experience. Coming into the fights against Chavez, Dylan Cala was 6-2, Felipe Vargas was 4-0, and Leandro Manhaes Paes was 8-8. 2 of his 3 career losses have come by decision with the third resulting from a guillotine choke submission. Prior to his three recent KO victories, all seven of his other wins had come via decision. He just fought on 7/18/20 so this will be a pretty quick turnaround for him especially considering his history of long layoffs in between fights. Recent fight dates: 7/18/20, 12/15/18, 3/17/18, 6/24/16, 2/12/16, 9/18/15, 3/13/15, 10/6/12...
Virna Jandiroba
#19 Strawweight
3rd UFC Fight1-1 in the UFC with her only career loss coming to Carla Esparza by decision. Prior to joining the UFC, she won 14 straight fights, 11 coming by submission. She truly is a submission machine with 12 of her 15 wins coming by submission (7 in R1, 4 in R2 & 1 in R3). Her opponent Herrig, however, has never been submitted as a pro and has officially not allowed a take down (however we counted one against Waterson) in her last four fights.
Felice Herrig
#20 Strawweight
8th UFC FightHasn't fought since 10/6/18 and also has lost her last two fights. Her last five fights went to decision. She has never been finished early and officially (we counted one against Waterson) hasn't allowed a take down in her last four fights on 9 attempts (Waterson 0/4, Kowalkiewicz 0/3, Casey 0/0, & Kish 0/2).
Jim Miller
#24 Lightweight
36th UFC Fight4-3 in his last 7 fights, 6 of those 7 fights ended in R1 but the 5 prior to that all went to decision. He recently submitted Roosevelt Roberts in R1 via arm bar on June 20th. Recency bias may drive his ownership up slightly, however he's currently a slight underdog yet priced as the favorite on both DFS sites. This pricing error should push some ownership onto Pichel. Miller should look to capitalize off of Pichel's 20% take down defense.
Miller will set the record for the most UFC fights ever at 36 surpassing Donald Cerrone with this fight. That should make the night a little extra special for him and could give him a some extra motivation. In Miller's last two wins he has actually been too efficient with how he ended them—only landing 2 significant strikes in each with no knockdowns or takedowns resulting in 94 (he landed one advance) and 91 DraftKings points despite ending each in R1.
Vinc Pichel
#38 Lightweight
8th UFC Fight5-2 in the UFC with 4 of those 5 wins coming by decision and the two losses coming by a R2 Arm-Triangle Submission and a R1 KO. Strangely Pichel is also coming off a win against Roosevelt Roberts, but almost exactly one year longer ago than Miller's. Pichel's win against Roberts came by decision though, whereas Miller was able to finish him in R1. Interestingly Robert's only two career losses have come to Miller and Pichel.
Racking up 8 take downs paired with 8 advances in consecutive decision wins back in 2014, Pichel has shown the ability to score high even in decisions (123 & 116 DK pts in those two wins). However, that's not a certainty as his last two decision wins scored totals of 98 and 65 points on DraftKings. He has also shown a nonexistent floor scoring 4 and 0 DraftKings points in his two UFC losses.
Merab Dvalishvili
#18 Bantamweight
7th UFC Fight4-2 in the UFC after winning his last four fights by decision. He narrowly lost his first two UFC fights to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon, with a bit of a controversial end to the Simon fight where a TKO was ruled after the final bell rang. He fought his last fight at 140 lb catchweight but normally fights at 135 lb. 5 of his 6 UFC fights have gone to decision. The only one that didn't was against Ricky Simon where Merab was allegedly submitted by guillotine choke right at the end of R3 (watch the tape and you tell us).
In his last two fights he notched 13 and 12 take downs respectively, adding on 14 advances in his most recent appearance. Coming off a slate breaking 174 point performance on DraftKings and priced below the top guys he should be an incredibly popular play on both sites. Going against an opponent with a very solid take down defense, if Merab isn't able to rack up takedowns, as he has in the past, than this fight will likely end up as a lower scoring decision that he could potentially lose. If that happens we think it's still unlikely that Dodoson scores highly on DraftKings but he's more interesting on FanDuel where you're awarded points for Take Downs Defended.
John Dodson
#9 Bantamweight
17th UFC FightComing off a bounce back R3 KO against up-and-comer Nathaniel Wood, Dodson is 4-5 in his last 9 UFC fights. However, those losses have come at the hands of current champ Petr Yan (15-1), Jimmie Rivera (23-4), Marlon Moraes (23-6), John Lineker (32-9) and former champ Demetrious Johnson (30-3). 6 of his last 7 fights have gone to decision and he's never been finished early as a pro. Dodson is not known for scoring well in DFS. His last 10 DraftKings scores are 75 pts (R3 KO W), 35 pts (R3 DEC L), 21 pts (R3 DEC L), 68 pts (R3 DEC W), 42 pts (R3 DEC L), 54 pts (R3 DEC W), 54 pts (R5 DEC L), 108 pts (R1 KO), 34 pts (R5 DEC L), and 59 pts (R3 DEC W).
Herbert Burns
#108 Lightweight
3rd UFC Fight2-0 in the UFC and coming off a recent R1 Submission of previously retired Evan Dunham, Burns has the momentum, name recognition, and small yet flawless UFC resume to be one of the highest owned fighters on Saturday. He's won his last five fights, all early, with four R1 finishes and one R2 finish. He has eight career submission wins all coming by Rear-Naked Choke or Triangle Armbar. He also has one KO to his name coming in R1 of his UFC debut. His only two career losses both came by decision and both a couple years before coming to the UFC. Hyped by Dana.
Daniel Pineda
#75 Featherweight
8th UFC FightHis last two wins were both overturned to "No Contest" after a failed drug test that also came with a 6 month suspense. He originally joined the UFC in 2012 and won his first two fights. However, after losing 4 of his next 5 he was cut and forced to fight elsewhere in 2014. Not counting his recent back to back No Contests, he's 8-2 since leaving the UFC with 9 of those 10 fights ending early, including five R1 victories. All six of his submission losses came in 2010 or earlier. All 26 of his career wins have come early and he's clearly stated he thinks this fight will end early regardless of who wins. 23 of his 39 pro fights have ended in R1. Hyped by Dana.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
#9 Heavyweight
6th UFC FightRozenstruik was viciously knocked out cold in 20 seconds in his previous fight against Ngannou just three months ago on May 9th. He'd won all 10 of his pro fights prior to that with 9 coming by KO and 7 in R1. Only 3 of his 11 pro fights have made it out of R1.
Junior Dos Santos
#5 Heavyweight
22nd UFC FightDos Santos was able to last over three times as long in the octogon against Ngannou making it all the way to the 1 minute and 11 second mark before getting KO'd. Coming off back to back losses against Curtis Blades and Francis Ngannou he's 3-2 in his last five fights with the last four ending in the first seven and a half minutes by KO. His last seven fights, and 13 of his last 15 dating back to 2011, have been main events. The two non-headliners were a 2015 R2 loss against Alistair Overeem and a 2013 R3 win over Mark Hunt.
Sean O'Malley
#10 Bantamweight
5th UFC FightThis fight was originally schedule for 7/6/19 and then got canceled 10 days prior to the event due to an O'Malley failed drug test. O'Malley won his last two fights by R1 KO. He's also won 8 of his 12 pro fights in R1. He hasn't truly been tested, as the combined record of his four UFC opponents is 62-37.
His first UFC fight was against Terrion Ware (17-11) who came in on a loss, lost that fight, and then lost his next four fights. His second UFC fight was against Andre Soukhamthath (13-8) who came in to the O'Malley fight having lost 2 of his last 3, then lost to O'Mally, and then lost 2 of his next 3 fights. O'Malley's 3rd UFC fight was against Jose Quinonez (8-4) who came in with limited experience and an 8-3 record. O'Malley's last fight was against 36 year old journeyman Eddie Wineland (24-14) who came in loser of 2 of his last 3 fights.
We're not betting against O'Malley or predicting a loss, but his competition (or lack there of) is worth noting. On the flip side, the poor competition O'Malley has faced is constantly being thrown in his face to diminish his results and could be providing a chip on his shoulder.
Marlon Vera
#80 Featherweight
15th UFC FightStarted his UFC career in 2014 at bantamweight (135 lb), but after losing 2 of his first 3 fights he moved up to featherweight (145 lb). He won his first fight at featherweight before fighting his next fight at 140 lb catchweight and then moving back down to bantamweight where he beat Brian Kelleher before losing his next two.
He then went on a 5 fight win streak before agreeing to move back up to featherweight in a loss to Yadong Song. He's now dropping back down to 135 lb to fight O'Malley. Albeit with limited data, Vera has a 3-1 record when switching weight classes. All five of Vera's UFC losses have been by decision whereas 8 of his 9 UFC wins, including his last 7, have come early (two in R1, four in R2 & two in R3). He's never been finished early.
Stipe Miocic
#1 Heavyweight
17th UFC Fight3rd straight fight against Cormier. 1-1 in the first two. Cormier KO'd Miocic in R1 of first fight. Miocic KO'd Cormier in R4 of rematch. He's won 7 of his last 8 fights, six by KO. This fight has been billed as determining the greatest heavyweight fighter of all time. For the first fight against Cormier, Stipe weighed in at 242.5 lb. He dropped down to 230.5 lb for his rematch victory and weighed in at 233 lb for this fight.
Daniel Cormier
#3 Heavyweight
14th UFC FightBeat Derrick Lewis in between the first and second Miocic fights. His last five fights ended early. He had a seven fight win streak going before losing the last fight to Miocic. Five of those seven were by KO or SUB by Rear-Naked Choke. He started his career at heavyweight (265 lb) in 2009, but then dropped down to light heavyweight (205 lb) in 2014. He stayed at light heavyweight until the first Miocic fight in 2018 and has fought at heavyweight since. Cormier weighed in for this first fight against Stipe at 246 lb before dropping down to 236.5 lb for the rematch. He weighed in at 236 lb for this fight.