The Sheet

Late Scratches: Johns/Dos Santos is OFF!

Fighter Notes:

Fight #11

Rodrigo Nascimento

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

A rare Heavyweight submission specialist, Nascimento is coming off his first career loss in nine pro fights. He’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than eight minutes and seven of his nine fights have ended in three and half minutes or less. He does have two KO victories on his record, but both of those occurred in his first three pro fights against opponents with a combined one fight of experience. His other six wins have all come by submission. It’s worth pointing out that his first five opponents all had little to no experience and entered with records of 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-4. So with just nine pro fights to his name, keep in mind the first half of his career was completely padded.

Nascimento punched his ticket to the UFC with a R1 submission win on DWCS in 2019 and then followed it up with a second round submission victory over a terrible Don'Tale Mayes in his 2020 UFC debut. He finally faced a formidable opponent in his most recent fight and it did not end well for him.

Taking on a pure striker in Chris Daukaus in that recent loss, Nascimento was knocked out just 45 seconds into the first round. Daukaus dropped Nascimento 20 seconds into the fight and then as Nascimento attempted to return to his feet Daukaus put him down for good. Daukaus clearly had a massive speed advantage as he easily landed a left hook to Nascimento’s chin to drop him the first time and then landed another left hook to finish the fight. Nascimento looked like he was fighting in slow motion compared to Daukaus and never had a chance of competing on the feet.

Nascimento had been fighting in the mid 250’s prior to his recent loss, but bulked up to 265 lb against Daukaus and looked slower than ever before. It will be interesting to monitor him at weigh-ins to see if he drops back down to 255-257 lb where he had been fighting. We’ll take it as a good sign if he does.UPDATE: Nascimento weighed in at 259 lb.

Alan Baudot

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

A former Light Heavyweight, Baudot was offered up as a sacrifice in his October 2020 UFC debut against Tom Aspinall. The fight ended as everyone expected with Aspinall landing a first round TKO. Although it came as somewhat of a surprise that Aspinall took the fight to the ground and finished it with ground and pound. He is a black belt so maybe it shouldn’t have, but he was also a former pro boxer and had been finishing fights on the feet. Anyways, the point is that Aspinall was able to easily ground Baudot on his first takedown attempt and then Baudot looked helpless off his back as he quickly shelled up as Aspinall rained down punches. Prior to getting taken down, Baudot showed decent quickness and movement. He also demonstrated that he likes to throw lots of spinning attacks, which can be dangerous against someone looking to take you down.

While Baudot’s second most recent fight took place at Light Heavyweight back in 2019 and he weighed in at 206 lb, he bulked up to 254 lb for his UFC debut. While he had 18 months in between those two fights, he hadn’t previously competed at Heavyweight since 2016, so who knows what his plans had been or how long he had been preparing to move up in weight. So now that he’s staying at Heavyweight, at least for the time being, he’s had nine months to adjust his body to the new weight class and it will be important to monitor him closely at weigh-ins.

Baudot had been fighting undersized, inexperienced fighters on the East Asia fight circuit for years prior to joining the UFC. The one time he took on a UFC level talent (prior to his recent debut) was when he faced Dalcha Lungiambula at Light Heavyweight in 2017 and Baudot was face-planted in just 26 seconds.

Following that loss, Baudot returned to Japan to rebuild his confidence against then 0-2 (now 0-5), 5'10", normally 170 lb Yuto Nakajima. This fight was a criminal mismatch and the only thing it was missing was carnival music or silent film captions. Regardless, it gave Baudot the confidence to attempt another fight against someone his own size in 6’3”, 36-year-old Todd Stoute. That didn’t go Baudot’s way either, as he was submitted in the third round with a Rear-Naked Choke, however the results were overturned when Stoute tested positive for THC. For reasons unknown, the fight went down as a DQ win on Baudot’s record instead of a No Contest.

Prior to the DQ win in his last fight before joining the UFC, all eight of Baudot’s pro fights had ended in KOs, including six in R1. Baudot won seven of those eight fights, but again, all of those wins came against highly dubious competition. He’s now officially 8-2 as a pro, but in reality he’s lost three of his last four fights before his 2019 submission loss was overturned to a DQ when his opponent tested positive for pot.

Fight Prediction:

Baudot will have a 1” height advantage, but Nascimento will have a 1” reach advantage.

Baudot should have the speed advantage on the feet and we all saw how that worked out for Nascimento in his last match. So it will be imperative that Nascimento quickly get this fight to the ground if he wants to avoid a repeat of his last fight. Baudot is a one-dimensional striker with 9 of his 10 career fights ending in KOs. While he was submitted in the third round of his second most recent match, it officially went down as a DQ win, so most people will be oblivious to what actually happened. Neither one of these two have ever been to the judges in 19 combined pro fights and we’d be shocked if that changes here. Nascimento looks like a sitting duck on his feet and Baudot is a turtle off his back, so this will simply come down to whether or not Baudot can keep the fight standing. He put up very little resistance to being taken down by Tom Aspinall in his last match and was submitted in his fight prior to that, so he’s given us no indication that he can actually defend takedowns, however, if he can catch Nascimento coming in we could see another quick knockout. Either way it’s hard to see this fight making it to the back half and we like someone to land an early finish. Both guys are so unimpressive and one-dimensional that it’s hard to confidently back either one, but we would be very surprised if this doesn't end with either a Nascimento submission victory or a Baudot KO win. We’ll give the edge to Nascimento, but it could absolutely go the other way. And all the value in betting and DFS is on Baudot’s side

Our favorite bets here are “Baudit Wins by R1 KO” and “Fight Ends in Under 1.5 Rounds” at -140. We also like “Baudot Wins by R2 KO” or Baudot’s overall KO line at +500. “Nascimento Wins by R1 Submission” at +185 is probably the single most likely bet to hit and “Nascimento Wins by R2 Submission” at +750 looks like a decent value also.

DFS Implications:

Whoever wins this fight should score well in DFS on both sites, but Nascimento’s grappling heavy style does lend itself more to DraftKings’ scoring system the longer this fight goes. At his high price tag, he’ll still need to outscore the other top priced fighters to end up in winning lineups, but he has a great chance to do so. Nascimento has never required the judges in his nine pro fights as he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than eight minutes. Six of his eight career wins have come in the first round and he has a great chance to extend that to seven here. Baudot is essentially helpless off his back, so Nascimento really just needs to get this fight to the ground without getting knocked out first and he should be able to finish Baudot on the mat. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a slate-leading 56% chance it comes early and a 32% chance to end it in R1.

Baudot is in a great leverage spot for DFS as he’s 0-1 in the UFC and scored a measly two DraftKings points in that R1 KO loss to Tom Aspinall. Checking in as the third largest underdog on the slate, he should go low owned despite having never been to the judges in 10 pro fights and knocking out seven of those opponents. Keep in mind, all of those wins came against highly questionable competition, but Nascimento looked terrible on the feet in his last match as he got dropped twice and finished in just 45 seconds by Chris Daukaus. Baudot has nowhere close to the striking skills of Daukaus, but Nascimento is definitely a liability standing up. If Baudot can keep this fight off the mat, he should have the speed advantage and has a solid chance to land a KO. Baudot’s one-dimensional striking paired with his potential to score from takedowns defended boosts his scoring ceiling on FanDuel and even make him an interesting low-owned MVP play. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance to end it in R1.

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Fight #10

Francisco Figueiredo

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Clearly the UFC is trying to make dos Figueiredos a thing after matchup up Francisco with Jerome Rivera in his recent debut and now pairing him up with Malcolm Gordon. Get ready Victor Rodriguez, you’re next.

While Figueiredo defeated Rivera in a decision, he’s also now the only fighter that couldn’t finish him in Rivera’s four UFC fights. We saw a large amount of time spent in the clinch as Figueiredo ended up winning a low-volume unanimous 29-28 decision. Rivera actually led in significant strikes 31-29 and in total strikes 85-39, but missed on all five of his takedown attempts, while Figueiredo landed 4 of his 6 attempts and finished with over seven minutes of control time. Figueiredo slowed down some in the third round and his gas tank is definitely questionable. He also never looked very dangerous in the match and completely lacks the power and submission skills that his brother possesses. Francisco sort of fights like a guy who watched Deiveson fight on TV and is trying to emulate his style without the underlying skills.

Figueiredo notably fought at 145 early in his career, but has primarily competed at 135 lb before dropping down to 125 lb in his UFC debut. So we don’t have much to go off in terms of how successful he can be at 125 lb, but it’s probably somewhat of a tough cut for him if he didn’t even attempt it in the past.

Deiveson set expectations high for his brother, hilariously saying that in three to four fights Francisco will be one of the best in the UFC [queue up the spit take]. He laughably went as far as comparing him to Israel Adesanya. Just before making his recent UFC debut, Francisco fought to a draw after he was deducted a point for a blatant fence grab. He did have back to back KO victories prior to that, although one of those came against a 6-12 opponent.

Francisco enters this fight with a 12-3-1 record, with 10 of his 12 wins coming early. He has three KO victories and seven by submission. Two of his three losses have also come early, with a 2011 R3 KO and a 2012 R2 Arm-Triangle Choke. He notably hasn’t been finished in the last 8+ years.

Malcolm Gordon

3rd UFC Fight (0-2)

Coming off back to back first round losses in his first two UFC fights, Gordon faced two tough opponents in those matches. He made his debut in July 2020 up at Bantamweight (135 lb) against Amir Albazi and was submitted late in the first round. He did have three previous fights at 135 lb and he won all three of those by KO, but the rest of his career has been down at Flyweight (125 lb).

Gordon dropped back down to Flyweight for his most recent fight, which came against bright up-and-coming prospect Su Mudaerji. We didn’t get much of a chance to see how Gordon looks at 125 lb in that one as Mudaerji knocked him out in just 44 seconds. Gordon didn’t land a single strike in the fight as Mudaerji put on a flawless performance.

A BJJ black belt, Gordon’s last nine fights have all ended early, with eight of those not making it out of the first round and the other ending early in round two. Gordon has gone 6-3 over that stretch with two KO wins and four wins by submission. Two of those three losses ended in knockout, while he was also submitted once. That submission in his debut is the only time he’s ever been submitted.

Looking at his entire career, Gordon is currently 12-5 as a pro with four wins by KO, six by submission and two by decision. All five of his career losses have come early, with four KOs and one submission. His first two career losses were by R2 KO, but his last three have all occurred in R1. He’s only been to the third round twice in his career and those both ended in decisions (2014 and 2015). His other 15 career fights all ended in the first two rounds. He came into the UFC on a four fight winning streak (3 Submissions & 1 KO), with three of those coming in R1 and one in R2.

Fight Prediction:

Gordon will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

This looks like a low-level fight that has little business being part of a UFC card, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be entertaining. Both guys rarely make it to the judges, with 88% of Gordon’s fights ending early and 75% of Figueiredo’s. While Gordon’s chin looked highly dubious in his last fight, Figueiredo possesses nowhere near the striking ability of Su Mudaerji. So in general, people will likely be overestimating Figueiredo’s chances to land a knockout based on the recency bias of how Gordon’s last fight went down. That should create some potential value on Gordon’s side in terms of DFS and betting with Figueiredo checking in as a massive -300 favorite, despite doing nothing to impress us in his UFC debut against a similarly terrible opponent. We’re not saying Gordon wins this fight, we’re simply pointing out that Figueiredo appears to be overvalued here. Gordon is dangerous off his back and Figueiredo went 4 for 6 on takedowns with over seven minutes of control time in his debut so he should be looking to put him there, assuming the fight doesn’t end with a quick KO. Figueiredo Lite doesn’t have anywhere close to the power of his brother and we would be somewhat surprised if he came in and immediately knocked Gordon out. We still give Figueiredo the edge to win the fight based on the fact that he hasn’t been finished in almost nine years and Gordon has lost in the first two rounds five times since 2014, but this fight feels closer than the odds suggest and both guys are capable of landing an early finish.

Overall we like betting this fight ends in the first two rounds and there’s a ton of value on Gordon’s side. We like his submission line at +850, as well as his R1 and R2 submission lines at +2000 and +2800, his ITD line at +490 and his R1 and R2 wins lines at +1100 and +1600. We also like “Fight Ends in R1” at +165 and “Fight Ends in R2” at +360. On Figueiredo’s side, you can hedge with his R1 and R2 win lines at +230 and +500 or his R1 and R2 KO lines at +340 and +700.

DFS Implications:

The younger brother of Deiveson Figueiredo, Francisco Figueiredo lacks the power and submission skills that made his brother a champion, but he does get his second straight dream matchup for DFS. However, Francisco failed to capitalize in a great spot against Jerome Rivera in his recent UFC debut, so our expectations are tempered that he’ll be able to get a finish here. With that said, Gordon is generally the type of fighter that produces DFS explosion spots for his opponents as he’s been finished in the first round in back-to-back fights and all five of his career losses have occurred in the first two rounds. Ten of Figueiredo’s 12 career wins have also come early, although he’s now fought to two straight decisions. Keep in mind, the field will be aware of all this so when you combine the ideal matchup, wide odds and name recognition that Figueiredo carries, he should end up fairly popular on both sites despite being entirely unproven in the UFC and unimpressive on tape. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 46% chance to get a finish and a 21% chance it comes in R1.

Gordon is in a great leverage spot. He’s been finished in the first round in both of his UFC fights, but now gets a step down in competition. His last nine fights (6-3) have all ended in the first round and a half with eight of those ending in R1. Only two of his 17 career matches have made it past the second round and he appears built to produce high DFS scores, whether they’re for him or his opponent. He showed a complete lack of a chin in his last match, but he is a BJJ black belt and at least looks decently quick on the feet. Figueiredo hasn’t looked like much of a knockout threat, so this could actually be a perfect matchup for Gordon in a spot where he should go very low owned. With that said, don’t forget Gordon was knocked out in 44 seconds in his last fight and submitted late in the first round the fight before that. This is the ultimate high-risk play, and he literally has a 0 point floor, which he demonstrated in his last outing, but he’s also due for some variance to come his way. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #9

Miles Johns

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Coming off his first KO win in the last five years, Johns knocked out UFC newcomer Kevin Natividad in the third round in a low-volume striking battle. Johns led in significant strikes 48-33 and in total strikes 56-38, but failed to land any of his seven takedown attempts. For the record, Natividad went on to get knocked out in 50 seconds in his next UFC fight.

Prior to his recent early win, Johns suffered his only career loss, which resulted from a second round KO against Mario Bautista. In a low-volume fight, Bautista led in striking 18-13 before getting the finish early in R2. Neither fighter attempted a takedown in the match and we saw far more feinting than striking. Johns came into that fight with a perfect 10-0 record, but got dropped with a perfectly placed flying knee. After earning a UFC contract on DWCS in 2019, despite his fight ending in a decision, Johns won a split-decision against Cole Smith in his 2019 UFC debut.

Johns has never been in a fight that ended in the first round and 8 of 12 bouts have made it to round three, including four of his last five. Prior to his last two fights ending in knockouts, he had fought to three straight decisions, including a five round split-decision win over bright young prospect Adrian Yanez for the vacant LFA Bantamweight Belt. Outside of his recent KO win, Johns’ only other finish since 2016 was a 2018 R2 Guillotine Choke Submission victory. Six of Johns’ 11 pro wins have gone the distance and 3 of his 5 finishes occurred in his first four pro fights against opponents with records of 0-0, 1-0 and 7-5.

Johns has a wrestling background and actually turned down a wrestling scholarship to focus on MMA. Despite his wrestling experience, he has only one takedown in his three UFC fights on 9 attempts. However, he did go 3 for 4 on takedowns in his Contender Series fight just before joining the UFC. So he’s really been using his wrestling more defensively as his opponents in the UFC have gone 1 for 7 on their takedown attempts against him, although six of those attempts were by Cole Smith who has just a 33% career takedown accuracy. Johns’ 87% takedown defense also factors in his DWCS fight where his opponent went 0 for 1.

Johns has failed to land above 48 significant strikes in his three UFC fights and only averages 3.33 significant strikes landed per minute. He also doesn’t absorb many strikes and only averages 2.42 significant strikes absorbed per minute.

Anderson Dos Santos

4th UFC Fight (1-2)

Joining the UFC later in his MMA career, the now 35-year-old Dos Santos made his 2018 debut in a decision loss to Nad Narimani. He went on to lose another decision in his second UFC fight against Andre Ewell in 2019, which marked his third straight fight to go the distance after 21 of his first 25 pro fights ended early.

Following the pair of decision losses in his first two UFC fights, Dos Santos finally righted the ship with a R1 Guillotine Choke Submission win over Martin Day in his most recent match. However, Day is notability 0-4 in the UFC and likely done with the organization.

Dos Santos is an aggressive fighter with a terrible 28% striking defense and he absorbed 84 and 73 significant strikes in his first two UFC fights. That suspect striking defense has led to him being knocked out three times in his career, with a 2015 R3 KO, a 2016 R2 KO and a 2018 R2 KO. He’s also been submitted twice, both times by R1 Guillotine Choke. His other three career losses ended in decisions. Of his 21 pro wins, 17 have come early, including 12 of submissions and five KOs. All 17 of his early wins have come in the first two rounds. Seven of his eight fights to make it to the third round went the distance, with the one exception being a 2015 R3 KO loss. Dos Santos notably beat Ricky Simon back in 2016 with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke, prior to joining the UFC. He has a decent Guillotine Choke, which he’s finished three opponents with and likes to use to defend takedowns.

Fight Prediction:

Johns is listed as having a 2” height advantage, while Dos Santos is listed as having a 2” reach advantage, but clearly that’s a mistake and Dos Santos is actually the taller fighter.

Dos Santos is far more hittable and absorbs almost exactly twice as many significant strikes per minute compared to Johns (4.8 vs. 2.42). While Johns has gone 1 for 9 on his takedown attempts in the UFC, Dos Santos has gone 3 for 16, so both of these guys have pretty terrible takedown accuracy (30% and 18%). There’s a good chance Johns’ wrestling cancels out Dos Santos’ grappling, at which point we expect Johns to win a striking battle on the feet. We like Johns to win this fight with either a mid to late round KO or in a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Johns Wins by R2 KO” at +1400. We also like “Johns Wins by KO” at +400, “Johns Wins by R3 KO” at +2500, “Fight Ends in R2” at +500 and “Fight Ends in R3” at +1000 .

DFS Implications:

Johns’ low-volume striking and poor takedown accuracy have limited his DFS scoring with DK/FD totals of just 81/94 and 64/60 in his two UFC wins. He did score better on FanDuel in his recent R3 KO win and if Dos Santos continues to average six missed takedowns per 15 minutes, Johns has the potential to score decently on FanDuel, while still not quite returning value on DraftKings with another third round finish. Barring a dominant grappling performance, which seems less likely going against a BJJ black belt, Johns will likely need a finish in the first two rounds to be useful on DraftKings and still likely doesn’t return value on FanDuel in a decision. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

This is a tough spot for Dos Santos. Johns is a really tough guy to score well against as he only absorbs an average of 2.42 significant strikes per minute and holds an 87% takedown defense. He’s never been submitted and his lone career loss resulted from a Flying Knee R2 KO. Dos Santos isn’t much of a KO threat, with just one knockout since 2014 and is generally reliant on landing submissions to win fights. He also lacks the takedown accuracy and striking defense to win many decisions, which further increases his dependence on choking opponents out. Coming off a first round submission win, Dos Santos’ ownership will likely see a slight rise as the chasers chase. This isn’t a spot we want much exposure to. The odds imply Dos Santos has a 38% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #8

Khalid Taha

5th UFC Fight (1-2, NC)

After briefly starting his pro career at 155 lb in 2013, Taha worked his way down to 135 lb by 2014 after landing three straight second round KOs at 145-155 lb. He’s mostly stayed at 135 lb since, but he did briefly move back up to 145 lb in 2018 for his UFC debut and his fight just prior to that. After losing that 2018 UFC debut in a decision against Nad Narimani, who took Taha down 6 times on 11 attempts, Taha dropped back down to 135 lb and landed a 25 second R1 KO against Boston Salmon in his second UFC match.

Taha kept his momentum going with a third round submission win over Bruna Silva in 2019, but the win was later overturned to a No Contest after Taha tested positive for furosemide, which is a banned diuretic. Ironically, Taha still missed weight by a pound for that fight, although who knows maybe struggling to make weight is why he felt like he needed to take a banned substance in the first place. Taha was suspended for one year following the failed drug test and then returned to lose a November 2020 decision against his toughest opponent to date in Raoni Barcelos, who outlanded Taha 120-49 in significant strikes and 129-68 in total strikes while tacking on a pair of takedowns on four attempts.

Now 13-3 as a pro, 11 of Taha’s 13 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and two submissions (not counting his submission win that was later overturned to a No Contest). Of note, 4 of his 11 career finishes occurred at 145-155 lb. He also has two decision wins, which came in 2015 and 2016. He’s only been finished once in his career, which came in a 2017 R3 Guillotine Choke Submission. He’s never been knocked out and his other two losses both went the distance in his first and most recent UFC fights.

Taha has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, although he’s only attempted two. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down 10 times on 26 attempts by his four opponents. Taha is a powerful striker, but has failed to land more than 49 significant strikes in any of his four UFC matches and only averages 2.86 significant strikes landed per minute. He absorbs far more at 4.26 per minute, which makes it tougher for him to win with the judges.

Sergey Morozov

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Coming off an ultra tough UFC debut against undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, Morozov was submitted in the second round with a Rear-Naked Choke. Nurmagomedov’s lightning quick head kicks and dangerous grappling made it hard for Morozov to close the distance or really get his offense going as he spent the entire fight on the defense. Nurmagomedov finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 25-7 and in total strikes 32-8 while landing 5 of 11 takedowns and nearly three minutes of control time in a fight that lasted under nine minutes.

Morozov is a former M-1 Bantamweight Champion and fought to a 25 minute title fight decision victory in his last fight before joining the UFC. Morozov also notably won his last five fights before joining the UFC with three of those ending in knockouts, including two in R1. His last pre-UFC loss came against undefeated UFC fighter Movsar Evloev, who has been murdering everyone and submitted Morozov in the third round of their 2018 match.

Of his 16 career wins, eight have come by KO, three by submission, and the remaining five have ended in decisions. Four of his five losses have notably come early, including one by KO and three submissions. His lone career KO loss came in the first round of a 2016 match, and his only submission loss to come against someone who’s not currently in the UFC occurred all the way back in 2015 in his fifth pro fight. He’s won 5 of the 6 decisions he’s been to in his career, while Taha has gone 2-2 in four career decisions.

Fight Prediction:

Morozov will have a 1” height advantage, but Taha will have a 2” reach advantage.

While Taha is mostly just a power puncher, Morozov will mix in more grappling and offers a more diverse attack. While Moroz does look somewhat vulnerable to being submitted, we expect Taha to look to keep this fight standing so that should be less of a concern in this match. Both guys are coming off a loss and need to win this fight to get their respective UFC records back to .500 so it wouldn’t be surprising if they each come in a little more conservative early on. Four of Taha’s last six fights have made it to the third round, as have three of Morozov’s last five. Taha looks like the more aggressive fighter, but Morozov will likely look to take him down if he feels like he’s in trouble on the feet. Considering Taha has never been knocked out and Morozov has only been knocked out once, this fight has a better chance than not to go the distance. If that happens, Morozov’s grappling should give him an advantage with the judges, so we like his chances to pull off the upset and win a decision.

The bets we like here are Morozov’s moneyline at +130, Morozov’s decision line at +220 and to a slightly lesser extent Taha’s ITD line at +260.

DFS Implications:

Taha has been to two decisions so far in the UFC and he’s lost them both. He notably scored just 31 and 29 DraftKings points in those two fights, so even if they had gone his way he still would have still scored terribly. That’s not surprising considering he’s yet to land a takedown in the UFC and averages just 2.86 significant strikes landed per minute. He looks entirely dependent on landing a finish to score well and even then he’s not a lock to return value if it comes beyond the second round. His R3 submission win over Bruno Silva scored just 79 points on DraftKings and 117 points on FanDuel before it was overturned to a No Contest. While that FanDuel score looks great, it was largely bolstered by nine takedowns defended and would have scored 90 points if we remove those. With that said, there’s a good chance Morozov shoots for some takedowns in this match and Taha has a slightly above average 61% takedown defense, so he definitely looks like a better FanDuel play compared to DraftKings. Just keep in mind he’ll need a finish to put up a decent score and can’t really score well in a decision. The odds imply he has a 57% chance to get a finish, a 23% chance it comes early and an 11% chance it comes in R1.

Morozov remains more or less of an unknown at the UFC level after he went up against a wood chipper in his recent UFC debut and was never able to get any offense going. Prior to joining the UFC, he looked like a guy that lands slightly above average volume and mixes in a decent number of takedowns. The fact that we have yet to see two full rounds out of him inside the Octagon makes him a high-variance play with a wider range of potential outcomes. As a former M-1 Bantamweight Champion, he certainly has the pedigree to excel at this level and now that he’s coming off a lopsided loss in his only UFC fight he should go somewhat lower owned. He has however seen the line move in his favor, which could drive up his ownership some as he looks like a value play. His only two losses in his last nine fights came against absolute studs in Movsar Evloev and Umar Nurmagomedov, so we should probably cut him some slack there and focus on the fact that he won the other seven fights over that period with four KO victories. His most recent two wins also notably came in M-1 Title fights so he’s not new to performing under pressure. He has a solid chance to win this fight, but it may be tough to get a finish against Taha, who’s only been finished once in his career and has never been knocked out. It is possible Morozov lands enough takedowns to score decently in a decision, but an average scoring decision is probably more likely. The odds imply he has a 43% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #7

Amanda Lemos

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Fresh off a dominant performance, Lemos landed a first round TKO win that included a pair of knockdowns against Livinha Souza, who had previously never been finished. Lemos looked so much more powerful and quick in that match, it never seemed like Souza had a chance. That was Lemos’ third straight win with two of those coming in the first round.

After turning pro at 27 years old in 2014, Lemos won her first five fights in the first round with four KOs and a Guillotine Choke. However, those wins came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 3-4, 0-0, 0-0, and 0-0. She then fought to a draw in her 6th pro fight, but they ran it back and Lemos won by knockout in the third round of the rematch. Following that win, Lemos joined the UFC in 2017.

Lemos suffered her first and only career loss in her UFC debut against Leslie Smith, who got the TKO stoppage against what appeared to be an exhausted Lemos in the second round. A few months after the loss, Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension after she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon.

After fighting her entire career to that point at 135 lb, Lemos dropped all the way down to 115 lb following her suspension. It’s not surprising that she moved down in weight, as she looked undersized for the 135 lb division, it’s just rare to see a fighter drop two weight classes all at once. With that said, Lemos looks strong at 115 lb and bounced back from the loss with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke submission of Miranda Granger, which is the only time Granger has been finished in her nine pro fights.

Following her first UFC victory, Lemos beat Mizuki Inoue in a decision. Lemos won the significant striking battle 83-57 and led on takedowns 2-0. Mizuki was however able to win the control time battle 6:53 vs. 2:22, but it wasn’t enough to win a single round. As was demonstrated in that fight, Lemos is a great striker but sometimes allows herself to get pushed up against the cage too easily for extended periods of time, which is of some concern as she prepares to face another grappler in this next match.

Montserrat “Conejo” Ruiz

2nd UFC Fight (1-0)

Coming off a smothering grappling performance in her recent UFC debut, Montserrat went up against a pure striker in hotheaded UFC newcomer Cheyanne Buys and Montserrat controlled essentially the entire fight. Montserrat finished ahead in significant strikes 31-15 and in total strikes 136-49, while landing 4 of 5 takedowns and amassing nearly 10 minutes of control time. She did a good job of setting up her takedowns with flurries of punches and utilized her signature headlock throw time-after-time to get the fight to the ground, where she consistently looks to land Scarf Hold Armlock Submissions.

Prior to winning her UFC debut, Montserrat landed a first round submission win in July 2020 following a 19 month layoff after she suffered her first career loss in a 2018 decision against former UFC fighter Danielle Taylor, who went 2-3 in five decisions with the organization before being released.

In her only fight to end early in her last five matches, Montserrat submitted Janaisa Morandin in the first round via Scarf Hold after the fight started with high paced striking. For context, Morandin came in on a two fight losing streak with both losses coming early. Leading up to the submission, Montserrat was able to get Morandin down with her signature headlock throw.

Since turning pro in 2014, Montserrat holds a 10-1 pro record, with five finishes, including three KOs and two submissions. With a wrestling background, Montserrat is clearly most comfortable in the clinch or on the mat, but will throw hands like she’s in a late night drunken Wendy’s brawl.

Fight Prediction:

Lemos will have a 4” height and reach advantage and Montserrat also weighed in at just 113.5 lb, while Lemos was 115.5 lb.

Lemos looks like an absolute stud at 115 lb and is a fantastic striker who can stand and trade with anyone in the division. On the other side of things, Montserrat looks like a one-trick pony, but she’s had great success so far with that one trick. However, this will be just her second fight going against someone with UFC experience, with the first resulting in her only career loss against Danielle Taylor. Montserrat is basically your one friend who runs the same play in Madden on 3rd down every time and you can never stop it. The problem with that strategy is when you finally find the defense to stop that play, you discover your friend actually sucks at Madden. While Lemos officially has a 100% takedown defense in the UFC, that’s based on a single takedown attempt from Inoue Mizuki, so her takedown defense still remains somewhat of a mystery.

This fight boils down to whether or not Montserrat can get Lemos down with her patented headlock throw. You would think that Lemos’ training camp would be 100% based on defending that move after watching Montserrat’s UFC debut and previous fights, so we’ll take the UFC veteran in this one to crack the Montserrat code. However, there’s a chance Montserrat is just too damn efficient with that move and even with everyone knowing it’s coming she’ll still be able to pull it off. Montserrat has never been finished, but she’s also never faced an opponent with the striking ability of Lemos. It’s also possible that the takedown and clinch threat of Montserrat will force Lemos into a more conservative gameplan focussed on constant movement and distance striking to stay out of the clinch, which could force this into a lower volume decision. With that said, Lemos lands the third highest average number of significant strikes on the slate at 6.21/minute and she has a good chance to land a knockout if she can remain upright. Give us Lemos in this one either by KO or in a decision, although she’s also shown she can win fights with submissions.

Our favorite bets here are Lemos’s R1 win line at +300, her R1 and R2 KO lines at +470 and +750 and Montserrat’s decision line at +750. You can also consider the “Fight Goes the Distance” at +106 and “Lemos Wins by R1 Submission” at +1100.

DFS Implications:

Lemos broke the slate her last time out with 124 DraftKings points and 141 points on FanDuel in a first round TKO that included a pair of knockdowns. She also scored 100 DraftKings points and 116 points on FanDuel in her 2019 first round submission win over Miranda Granger, and has clearly shown a high DFS ceiling. Even in her lone UFC decision win, she still scored 91 DraftKings points and 97 points on FanDuel, so overall Lemos looks like a high floor, high ceiling play. Coming off such a massive performance, Lemos should be fairly highly owned, but because Montserrat is also coming off a high scoring win of her own, that should be tempered at least a little bit. Either way, Lemos looks like a solid play on both sites, but should boost her FanDuel score with takedowns defended so we slightly prefer her over there. The odds imply she has a 81% chance to win, a 41% chance to get a finish and an 18% chance it comes in R1.

Montserrat’s grappling heavy fighting style is perfectly geared towards the DraftKings scoring system, but will struggle to score well on FanDuel without a finish. Her smothering decision win in her UFC debut was good for 103 DraftKings points, but just 63 points on FanDuel. This is an incredibly tough matchup for her to succeed in and while we loved her going into her debut, this is not a spot we’re looking to have much exposure. Lemos will destroy her on the feet and has yet to be taken down (on one attempt) so far in the UFC. Playing Montserrat feels like chasing here, but it makes sense to have a little DraftKings exposure while fading her on FanDuel. The odds imply she has just a 19% chance to win, a slate-low 9% chance to get a finish and a 4% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #6

Daniel Rodriguez

6th UFC Fight (4-1)

Rodriguez had been scheduled to fight Abubakar Nurmagomedov here, but Nurmagomedov withdrew on July 8th citing an injury and Parsons stepped in shortly thereafter.

After starting his pro career 8-1 with eight early wins, Rodriguez initially tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in July 2019. However, he failed to get a contract after notching his first career decision victory and was forced to return to the regional scene. He landed a second round KO in December 2019 in his next fight and when the UFC needed a short notice replacement fighter to take on Tim Means in February 2020 they knew just who to call.

Stepping into his debut on less than three week’s notice, Rodriguez came out ready to brawl and dropped Means just before the first round ended. That left Means taking the long way back to his stool as he drunkenly zig-zagged trying not to topple back over. Means was able to recover in between rounds to some extent, but Rodriguez continued to pour it on. He had Means badly hurt again later in the second round, which forced Means to shoot for a desperation takedown. Rodriguez quickly wrapped up his neck and finished the fight with a Standing Guillotine Choke.

Rodriguez was then scheduled to fight Kevin Holland on May 30th 2020, however, Holland withdrew shortly before the fight, and Gabe Green stepped into his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice. That fight turned into an absolute brawl with Rodriguez finishing well ahead in striking 175-127 on his way to a unanimous 30-27 decision win.

Next, Rodriguez was booked against Takashi Sato on August 22nd. However, Sato wasn’t medically cleared following weigh-ins the day before the event and was forced to withdraw. Dwight Grant also needed a new opponent after both Jared Gooden and then super late replacement Calen Born both withdrew. With Grant and Rodriguez both opponent-less, it made sense to pair the Welterweights up against one another. Grant couldn’t have been thrilled going from an easy opponent in newcomer Gooden, to an easier opponent in smaller newcomer Born, only to end up against Rodriguez on one day’s notice, but he accepted nevertheless.

Grant came dangerously close to finishing Rodriguez early in R1 with a knockdown followed by some extensive ground and pound in the first minute. It looked like the ref was an eye blink away from stopping the fight, but he let it go on. Rodriguez was able to recover and quickly turn the tables, dropping Grant a couple of times in the next 90 seconds. The ref was much quicker to stop the fight as Grant took a beating, but Grant was clearly compromised by Rodriguez’s punches. With the win, Rodriguez stretched his winning streak to nine and started 3-0 in the UFC.

Following three straight short notice victories, Rodriguez was then scheduled to face Bryan Barberena on November 11th, however Barberena withdrew for medical reasons. Rodriguez was unable to find a short notice replacement that time, so he had to wait on the sidelines for a new opportunity to present itself. However, it didn’t take long as Orion Cosce dropped out of a fight against Nicolas Dalby the following week and Rodriguez happily stepped in for his fourth straight short notice opponent. With a unique karate style stance, Dalby was the first fighter to force Rodriguez into something other than a brawl and somehow Dalby fooled the judges into awarding him a decision despite trailing 83-50 in significant strikes and 105-58 in total strikes while missing on all seven of his takedown attempts. That loss broke a nine fight winning streak for Rodriguez and was just the second time he’d lost a fight in his career—both by decision.

Finally, in his 5th UFC fight Rodriguez booked an opponent with time for a camp and the fight actually happened. The April 2021 matchup came against Mike Perry and Rodriguez was given two months time to prepare. Rodriguez more than doubled the striking numbers of Perry as he outlanded him 129-61 in significant strikes and 145-65 in total strikes. Perry was able to land a pair of takedowns on four attempts, but Rodriguez won every round and cruised to a unanimous decision win.

Returning to his old ways, Rodriguez had then been scheduled to face Nurmagomedov here, but of course Nurmagomedov withdrew and Rodriguez will now insanely get his 5th short notice opponent in six UFC fights. That has to be some kind of record, although it could be a two man race with Kevin Holland.

After 10 of his first 12 pro fights ended early, three of his last four have now gone the distance. Also notable, while three of his first four pro fights ended in the first round, 11 of his last 12 have made it to the second round with seven of those seeing round three. Something to keep in mind for prop bets, while Rodriguez’s most recent finish occurred in R1, his three prior to that all came in round two.

Takedown defense will play a key factor in this next matchup, and while Rodriguez has a respectable 78% takedown defense on paper, it should be noted that it really hasn’t been tested by a true grappler. That number is also inflated by Dalby (29% career takedown accuracy) failing on seven takedown attempts.

Takedowns landed and attempted against Rodriguez (beginning with most recent):
Mike Perry (40% Takedown Accuracy) 2 for 4
Nicolas Dalby (29% Takedown Accuracy) 0 for 7
Dwight Grant (100% Takedown Accuracy) 0 for 0
Gabe Green (100% Takedown Accuracy) 0 for 0
Tim Means (39% Takedown Accuracy) 1 for 3

So only three opponents have attempted a takedown on Rodriguez and they combined to go 3 for 14 (21%). More notably, they have an average takedown accuracy of just 36%. So we really don’t know what Rodriguez’s takedown defense will look like against a decent grappler, however, the fact that Mike Perry was able to ground him twice on four attempts in his last match has us skeptical that Rodriguez will be able to keep this fight standing.

Preston Parsons

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his short notice UFC debut, Parsons joins the organization with a 9-2 pro record and having never been past the second round. All nine of his wins have come by submission, including eight in the first round. He’s also been knocked out once and submitted once. He’s now on a four fight winning streak and hasn’t lost a fight in four and a half years.

Parsons turned pro in 2014 at just 19 years old and landed back-to-back first round submission wins in his first two fights. Then, a week before his 20th birthday in what was just his third pro fight, he went up against Mike Perry and was knocked out in the first round. Parsons actually took Perry’s back almost immediately and had his moments in the fight, but Perry was able to get a TKO stoppage while Parsons shelled up late in the first round following a hard knee.

Bouncing back from his first career loss with three more first round submission wins in 2016, one of which came against another fighter in Ignacio Bahamondes who’s also now in the UFC, Parsons improved his early career record to 5-1 with all five wins coming by R1 submission. He then took on a tough veteran in Valdir Araujo and was submitted himself in the second round via Guillotine Choke. One knock on Parsons is that he does leave his neck open for Guillotines at times on his takedowns. Following that January 2017 loss in Titan FC, he didn’t fight again for over two years before he resurfaced in March 2019 with the “Combat Night” organization in Florida. Upon his return, he once again rattled off three straight first round submission wins followed by a second round submission victory just six weeks ago on June 5th.

We saw a noticeable change in Parsons’ approach between his earlier fights and his most recent one. While he appeared to be a one-dimensional submission specialist earlier in his career, Parsons showed up ready to brawl in his last fight. It also looked like he had added a decent amount of muscle and it should be noted he’s still just 25 years old. Parsons started his career at 155 lb but has been at 170 lb since 2016. He still looked pretty hittable in that recent bout and will need to work on his striking defense, but his striking offense looked remarkably improved. We do need to take the win with a grain of salt, however, as it came against an opponent who has lost 4 of his last 5 fights with three of those losses coming early.

Overall, Parsons shoots for a ton of takedowns, is incredibly dangerous on the ground, and now looks much more dangerous and willing to trade on the feet. It’s possible that newfound striking ability could get him into trouble against a dangerous brawler like Rodriguez, but it’s hard to be disappointed that his game is looking more well rounded.

Fight Prediction:

Rodriguez will have a 2” height and reach advantage.

This sets up for a fun fight with the potential to turn into a brawl if Parsons is unable to quickly get it to the mat. With that said, if Parson’s can avoid getting dropped by Rodriguez early on, we think there’s a good chance he does get this fight to the ground, at which point it will just be a matter of whether or not he can finish with a submission. He’ll also need to avoid getting Guillotined as he shoots, so there are several landmines he’ll need to avoid. We think Parsons has a chance to pull off the upset and keep his submission streak alive, just keep in mind Rodriguez has never been finished in 16 pro fights and Parsons has never been past the second round. So the most likely scenario is still for Rodriguez to land an early finish. Either way, we expect this fight to end in the first two rounds with either a Parsons submission victory or a Rodriguez early win.

We love the value on Parson’s side here. Our favorite bet by far is his R1 submission line at +1700, but we also like his overall submission line at +700, and his R2 submission line at +2100. We also like “Fight Ends in Submission” at +480 and “Under 3 Rounds” at -168. “Rodriguez Wins in R2” at +450 is our favorite hedge on his side, but you can also consider his R1 line at +190.

DFS Implications:

Rodriguez went from being 46% owned at $9,100 on DraftKings as a -315 favorite on a 12-fight slate against Nicolas Dalby to just 22% owned at $8,800 as a -135 favorite on a 14-fight card against Mike Perry in his last fight. He scored just 39 DK points against Dalby and only 85 points against Perry, so it will be interesting to see where his ownership ends up on this 11-fight slate where he’s again priced at $8,800, but is now a -275 favorite. For what it’s worth, Rodriguez opened as a -190 favorite in his last fight before the Mike Perry fanclub insanely bet it down. We expect Rodriguez’s ownership to spike again now that he’s coming off a win, back to being a sizable favorite and is going against a UFC newcomer. He leads the slate in average significant strikes landed per minute at 7.87, which when paired with the fact that he should be defending multiple takedowns makes him a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings the longer this fight lasts. While he only scored 85 DraftKings points in his recent high-volume decision win, that was good for 103 points on FanDuel, further supporting the case that he’s a slightly better play over there, but he definitely has a huge ceiling on both sites. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 52% chance to get a finish and a 27% chance it comes in R1.

Parsons sets up as an interesting low-owned cheap leverage play with a potentially huge DFS ceiling. While we can’t say how he’ll fare at the UFC level, we can point out that he’s gone 1-1 against fighters who are now in the UFC and each of those fights ended in the first round. Earlier in his career, Parsons was a one-dimensional submission threat and never landed much striking volume, but in his last fight he went full Sean O’Malley, so the potential for this to turn into a high-volume striking brawl is at least somewhat alive. We still fully expect Parsons to look to take this fight to the mat early and often, but it is somewhat reassuring to know that his striking has improved and he’s capable of competing on the feet. Our biggest concern with him is his striking defense and it’s entirely possible that Rodriguez quickly capitalizes on that and lands an early knockout. However, the only time Parsons has ever been knocked out came in a fight against Mike Perry when Parsons was just 19 years old and fighting for the third time as a pro down at 155 lb. So much has changed since then that it’s hard to take too much away from that. This is a high-variance play and Parsons has the potential to look great or fall on his face in a tough spot, but that’s what GPP winning plays are made of. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #5

Gabriel Benitez

11th UFC Fight (6-4)

After fighting the majority of his career at 145 lb, Benitez competed at 155 lb in his last two fights where he went 1-1. He attempted to drop back down to 145 lb in a scheduled fight against Jonathan Pearce this past May, but after Benitez missed weight by 4.5 lb, Pearce decided not to proceed and the fight was canceled. So it will be essential to monitor Benitez at weigh-ins and hopefully he actually makes weight this time as it’s been nearly two years since Benitez fought at 145 lb. UPDATE: Benitez made weight with no issues.

In his last fight, Benitez knocked out Justin Jaynes in the first round with a violent knee to the body, which ended a two fight losing streak for Benitez. In those two previous losses, Benitez was knocked out in the first round by Sodiq Yusuff at 145 lb and then moved up to 155 lb and lost a decision to Omar Morales. Benitez initially stumbled Yusuff in the first round of their match, but Yusuff bounced back and finished things shortly after. Then in a bloody leg striking battle with Morales, Benitez split his shin wide open but was able to survive the injury and still go 15 minutes, demonstrating his insane toughness. Prior to the pair of losses, Benitez had won five of his first seven UFC fights, after joining the organization back in 2014.

He won his 2014 UFC debut with a third round Guillotine Choke and followed it up with a decision win. However, he then got knocked out in the first round by Andre Fili in 2015 before bouncing back with another Guillotine Choke Submission win in the second round of a 2016 match. Then he took on Enrique Barzola in 2017 and lost a decision where he was taken down nine times on 15 attempts. For context, that came during a four fight stretch of dominating grappling for Barzola, where he landed 31 takedowns across four UFC fights.

Benitez bounced back from the loss with a dominating decision win over Jason Knight, who was so outclassed he resorted to biting and eyepokes. The bite cost him a point in the first round, but Benitez didn’t need it, as he went on to easily win a unanimous decision (26-30, 26-30, 27-29). Next, Benitez landed a first round finish with a “KO by slam”, where he responded to an Armbar attempt by picking up his opponent and violently slamming him to the mat while tacking on a few punches at the end for good measure to make sure he was out cold. That brings us back to his current 1-2 three fight stretch.

So in summary, Benitez has four early wins in the UFC—2014 R3 Guillotine, 2016 R2 Guillotine, 2018 R1 KO and 2020 R1 KO. His other two UFC wins came in lopsided decisions. On the other side of things, he has two R1 KO losses and two decision losses since joining the organization.

Looking at his entire career, 18 of his 22 wins came early, as did 4 of his 8 losses. He has 8 wins by KO and 10 by Submission (4 Guillotines, 2 Rear-Naked Chokes, 3 Armbars & 1 Kimura). His two career KO losses both came in the first round in UFC matches against Fili and Yusuff, while his two submission losses also both occurred in the first round, but in back-to-back 2013 fights. Half of his 30 career fights, including three of his last four, have ended in the first round, with him winning 11 of those. His last six matches have all either ended in the first round or gone the distance.

Billy Quarantillo

5th UFC Fight (3-1)

Quarantillo is coming off a high-volume decision loss to Gavin Tucker, who filled up the stat sheet as he led in significant strikes 106-84 and landed 7 takedowns on 13 attempts with over five minutes of control time. Quarantillo actually led in total strikes 136-123 but went 0 for 3 on takedowns and seemed to get worn out from all the body shots and takedowns of Tucker.

Prior to that decision loss, Quarantillo had won eight in a row with five KOs, a submission victory and a pair of decision wins. His last six fights have all made it out of the first round with four of his last five making it to round three.

Quarantillo won his December 2019 UFC debut with a second round Triangle Choke Submission before defeating Spike Carlyle in a hard fought decision. He followed that up with a R3 KO of Kyle Nelson in his second most recent match. He very nearly finished Nelson at the end of R2, but simply ran out of time. Quarantillo then face-planted Nelson with his first punch 7 seconds into R3.

Now 15-3 as a pro, his only two losses prior to his recent decision loss occurred in a 2013 decision (in his third pro fight) and a 2016 R1 KO against Michel Quinones. Eleven of Quarantillo’s 15 career wins have come early, with six KO’s and five submissions.

Not typically one to end fights in the first round, the BJJ black belt Quarantillo has shown the ability to wear on his opponents as fights go on before finishing them late. Only one of his last nine finishes occurred in R1 and that was back in 2017.

Quarantillo started his career fighting between 150-160 lb and has gone back and forth between Lightweight and Featherweight, but has pretty much stayed at 145 lb since 2019, one fight before he went on DWCS. The only exception was when he fought Spike Carlyle at a 150 lb Catchweight.

A high-volume, push-the-pace style fighter, Quarantillo averages the second highest number of significant strikes landed on the slate at 7.03 per minute. He also absorbs the fourth most at 4.37 per minute, so in general his fights are high paced brawls. He’s landed five takedowns in his four UFC fights, but didn’t land any in his last match on three attempts.

Fight Prediction:

Quarantillo will have a 2” height advantage, but Benitez will have a 1” reach advantage.

While Quarantillo struggled to defend takedowns in his last fight, Benitez has only landed one takedown in 10 UFC fights, so that shouldn’t be an issue here. We expect this to be an exciting brawl with both guys having their moments. If it goes the distance, Quarantillo should be able to lead in both striking and takedowns and win a decision, but Benitez is a dangerous striker and certainly has the potential to end it early. We like Quarantillo to pull off the upset and win this with a late finish or in a decision as long as he can survive the first round. Apparently we’re not the only ones as he’s seen the line move 45 cents in his favor since earlier in the week.

There are tons of juicy lines here. Our favorites are Quarantillo’s R2 and R3 win lines at +1400 and +2200, as well as “Fight Does Not Go the Distance” at +120. We also like Quarantillo R3 KO line at +3600, his moneyline at +180 (now +135), his decision line at +290 and Benitez’s R1 win line at +600 as a hedge.

DFS Implications:

Benitez is a pure striker, who’s only takedown in 10 UFC fights came on a slam to free himself from an Armbar attempt. He throws above average volume, but not enough to score well in a decision. He totaled just 63 and 68 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins and just 57 DK points in his 2014 R3 Submission win. However, in his last two victories, which both came in R1, he scored 115 and 134 DK points. He also returned 96 DK points in a 2016 R2 Submission win. Those three wins respectively scored 135, 123 and 118 points on FanDuel. So clearly he has a solid ceiling, but it will be hard for Benitez to return value if this fight makes it past the second round. With that said, while a third round finish is less likely to score well on DraftKings, it would fare better on FanDuel based on the scoring system and the likelihood of him scoring from takedowns defended. When you combine that with his lack of grappling, he makes for a slightly better play on FanDuel than DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win this fight, a 25% chance to end it early and an 11% chance to finish things in R1.

Quarantillo was notably 50% owned in his last fight as a -170 favorite priced at $8,500 on DraftKings. He had a 55 cent line move in his favor for that fight, similar to the 45 cent move this time around, although last time it occurred when he opened as a favorite and this time he opened as a dog. Quarantillo has been a consistent DFS scorer with DK/FD totals of 109/133, 85/80, and 131/150 in three UFC wins. While he didn’t put up a big score in his one decision win, he could potentially still be useful as a value play at his price. With that said, interestingly, Quarantillo was priced at just $15 on FanDuel as a favorite in his last match, but is now $16 as an underdog. Quarantillo averages the second most significant strikes landed on the slate at 7.03 per minute and generally adds on a takedown or two, so if he wins he has a great chance to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, an 18% chance it comes early and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #4

Rodolfo Vieira

4th UFC Fight (2-1)

Looking to bounce back from a massive upset loss, Vieira gassed out hard in the first round and was then beaten at his own game when Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez submitted him early in the second round. Vieira is a BJJ black belt and a celebrated Jiu Jitsu world champion who came into that fight with a perfect 7-0 MMA record that included six submission victories and one knockout. Five of his wins had come in the first round, but he had landed a finish in both the second and third rounds so it was still a little surprising to see him empty his tank so early. With that said, Vieira is absolutely huge for the 185 lb division, so between what has to be a huge weight cut and what appears to be no body fat, it makes sense that he has a questionable gas tank. He actually started his career at 205 lb and had competed in grappling bouts at 220 lb, before he dropped down to 185 lb in 2018.

While Vieira is an exceptional grappler and may give the appearance that he should be a dangerous striker, he’s essentially useless on the feet and has even said he’s terrified of competing in MMA matches. This guy probably jumps on a chair when he sees a mouse. Also worth considering when looking at his early UFC record, he notably went against terrible competition in his first two UFC fights. He first defeated Oskar Piechota in his debut, who’s been finished early in his last four UFC fights, and then more recently submitted Saparbek Safarov, who’s been finished early in three of his last four UFC fights.

Vieira has been in three MMA fights that lasted longer than four minutes. The first of those came in 2017 when he was still competing at 205 lb in his second pro MMA match. That fight nearly went the distance before he landed a third round submission with 13 seconds left against an opponent who entered with a 2-3 record and hasn’t fought since. Vieira dropped down to 185 lb following that fight and hasn’t been past the second round since. His 2019 UFC debut against Oskar Piechota remains the second longest fight of Vieira’s career, with Vieira landing a submission win with 34 seconds remaining in the second round. Vieira was clearly wearing down in the second round, but Piechota did very little to aid in emptying Vieira’s gas tank so it makes sense he was able to go a little longer. The only other time Vieira has been past the four minute mark came in his recent loss and it seems pretty clear that Vieira has some of the worst cardio in the UFC.

Dustin Stoltzfus

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Also coming off a loss, Stoltzfus lost a low-volume decision in his November 2020 UFC debut against Kyle Daukaus. That was just Stoltzfus’ second pro defeat and he came into the UFC on a 10 fight winning streak. He’s never been finished and his only other pro loss also ended in a decision, although that one came up at Light Heavyweight back in 2015 in his fourth pro fight. Stoltzfus turned pro at Light Heavyweight in 2014 and went 2-1 at that weight class in three decisions before dropping down to Middleweight for good in 2015. He also took one fight at Middleweight prior to his 2015 decision loss at Light Heavyweight, so in his career he’s 11-1 at 185 lb.

Stoltzfus was unimpressive in his recent decision loss to Daukaus and was outlanded 64-32 in significant strikes and 113-95 in total strikes. He also went 0 for 7 on takedowns, while Daukaus went 2 for 7 with nearly nine minutes of control time to Stoltzfus’ two minutes. The majority of the fight was spent in the clinch, but Stoltzfus didn’t look great in space or on the ground when the fight went there. Daukaus easily won a unanimous decision as he took every round and was even awarded a 10-8 round by one judge. Meanwhile Stoltzfus didn’t do anything to impress us.

Stoltzfus won his previous fight via TKO on DWCS in August 2020 when his opponent's elbow dislocated in a freak injury as Stoltzfus slammed him on the mat. It seemed like a pretty close fight before the injury, so it’s hard to take too much away from the outcome. It was enough, however, to land Stoltzfus a spot in the UFC.

Now 13-2 as a pro, Stoltzfus has two wins by KO, five by submission, five by decision and one by DQ. Both of his losses went the distance. There’s definitely reason to question his pre-UFC record, which came against opponents who entered with records of 0-1, 0-0, 2-0, 2-1, 4-1, 2-2, 5-4, 10-2, 9-5, 4-2, 20-7-1 and 9-4.

During his media day interview, Stoltzfus talked about how the lingering effects of COVID played a major impact in his lackluster performance in his UFC debut, so maybe we’ll see a different fighter come Saturday.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are listed at 6’0” tall, but Stoltzfus will have a 2” reach advantage and looked like the taller fighter at face-offs.

Vieira looks extremely vulnerable against anyone that can survive the opening few minutes against him or keep the fight on the feet. His non-existent cardio was completely exposed in his last match so Stoltzfus’s game plan should be based around early survival and staying off his back. However, Stoltzfus looks pretty terrible himself and even knowing what he needs to do he may be unable to execute it. This is a fight where a competent Middleweight would have no problem defeating either guy, but paired up against one another there’s a much higher level of uncertainty. There’s a good chance Vieira charges for an early double leg and submits Stoltzfus, but if he’s unable to finish the fight in the first round we fully expect him to gas out again and turn into a sitting duck for Stoltzfus to topple over. So look for either Vieira to win by submission in the first round or for Stoltzfus to be gifted a second round win. We still think the former is the more likely outcome, but not by much.

Our favorite bets here are “Vieira Wins in R1” at +170, “Stoltzfus Wins in R2” at +1400, “Fight Ends in R1” at +115 and “Fight Ends in R2” at +400.

DFS Implications:

Vieira was 59% owned on DraftKings in his last fight when he busted as a -450 favorite against the legendary Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez, so it will be interesting to see how the field reacts to getting burned. He still projects to be very popular, but nowhere close to his previous number. Vieira appears to be more or less a R1 or bust play for DFS but there’s a chance he can land a finish early in the second round. Anything beyond that appears out of the question based on his non-existent gas tank. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 48% chance to get a finish and a 26% chance it comes in R1.

Stoltzfus gave us no reason to get excited about him in his recent UFC debut, but it would be surprising if Vieira could last long enough to see a decision. So there’s the potential for Stoltzfus to win this fight by default if he can simply survive the opening minutes. This looks like a fight where you’ll want some exposure to both sides purely based on the likelihood it ends in the first two rounds. The odds imply Stoltzfus has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #3

Mateusz Gamrot

3rd UFC Fight (1-1)

Coming off an early second round KO win against Scott Holtzman, Gamrot bounced back from his first career loss, which occurred in a split-decision against a tough Guram Kutateladze as they both made their UFC debuts in October 2020. Gamrot actually led in significant strikes 52-37, total strikes 69-43, takedowns 5-0, and control time 3:29-0:01, and even his opponent said Gamrot won following the fight, but the judges didn’t see it that way. He notably shot for 16 takedowns in the match, but only landed five of them. Amazingly, that was Gamrot’s third fight in four months and he was coming off a five round decision title fight win just a month and a half earlier.

In his more recent KO win, Gamrot led in significant strikes 39-10 and total strikes 41-10, while landing 2 of his 5 takedown attempts, before ending the fight just over a minute into the second round. Holtzman had previously only been finished once in his career, although that came just one fight prior in a first round KO. Before his recent KO win, Gamrot had just one TKO stoppage in the last six years, which resulted from a 2020 third round doctor stoppage, so in general he hasn’t been a huge KO threat. Three of his six TKO/KO wins resulted from doctor or corner stoppages. And while two of his last five fights have ended in TKO/KO wins, his other three fights over that stretch all went the distance, including two five round decisions.

A former KSW Lightweight and Featherweight Champion, Gamrot came into the UFC 17-0 with a ton of experience under his belts. He generally tends to wear on his opponents and his last 13 fights have all made it out of the first round. Of his 18 career wins, eight have gone the distance, six have ended in KOs and four have finished with submissions. He also has one No Contest on his record from an accidental eye poke and the one decision loss.

Gamrot has notably gone 7 for 21 (33%) on his takedown attempts so far in the UFC, with a 5 for 16 performance in his debut followed by a 2 for 5 showing in his recent KO win.

Jeremy Stephens

34th UFC Fight (15-17, NC)

Stephens had been scheduled to face Drakkar Klose back in April, but Klose withdrew citing concussion-like symptoms after Stephens violently shoved him during face-offs. Stephens had another fight canceled prior to that, as he had been booked against Arnold Allen last November but that time Stephens withdrew due to injury. It’s now been 14 months since Stephens stepped inside the Octagon, which was when he was knocked out by Calvin Kattar in the second round of a May 2020 match. And it’s been three and half years since Stephens actually won a fight, with his last victory coming in a February 2018 R2 KO against Josh Emmett. Since that win, Stephens has gone 0-4 plus a No Contest, with a pair of KOs in the first two rounds to go along with a couple of decision losses.

In Stephens’ last fight, Kattar caught him with a clean right cross to split him wide open halfway through the second round. Prior to the finish, Stephens had a narrow lead in striking 57-52, while Kattar missed on the only attempted takedown in the match. Stephens notably missed weight badly for that match, tipping the scales at 150.5 lb for the 145 lb fight. So while Stephens’ last 18 fights have been at 145 lb, he’ll now move up to 155 lb for the first time since 2012. Stephens originally made the move from Lightweight down to Featherweight back in 2013 after he lost three straight fights at 155 lb. He went just 7-8 at 155 lb in his first 15 UFC fights from 2007-2012.

Of Stephens’ 33 UFC fights, 19 have ended in decisions, two have ended by Armbar submissions (both in his first six UFC fights), one has ended in a No Contest due to an eye poke, and the other 11 have ended with KOs. Not counting the No Contest, 14 of his last 15 fights have made it out of the first round, with the one exception being a R1 KO loss to Jose Aldo in 2018.

Stephens was a high school wrestler and has a slightly above average 65% takedown defense. In his last 15 fights, his opponents have attempted 54 takedowns, but landed just 16 (29.6%). The only person to get him down in his last four matches was Zabit Magomedsharipov (56% takedown accuracy), who went 3 for 8 on his attempts. Although since then Yair Rodriguez (29% takedown accuracy) didn’t attempt any in their first fight which ended in a No Contest and then went 0 for 3 in their rematch. Most recently, Kattar (30% takedown accuracy) went 0 for 1. Prior to the Zabit fight, Stephens’ went four straight fights without an opponent even attempting a takedown, so his takedown defense hasn’t really been tested much lately. If we look back to 2012 at his last three fights at 155 lb, Stephens was notably taken down 7 times on 13 attempts (53.8%), so there’s reason to think he’ll struggle more to defend takedowns back up at 155 lb for the first time since then.

Here are the takedowns landed and attempted by Stephens’ last 15 opponents, beginning with most recent:
0 for 1
0 for 3
0 for 0
3 for 8
0 for 0
0 for 0
0 for 0
0 for 0
2 for 5
5 for 14
2 for 9
1 for 1
1 for 6
2 for 7
0 for 0

Total = 16 for 54 (29.6%)

Stephens is now 28-18 as a pro. Of his 28 career wins, 19 have come by KO, two have ended in submissions and seven have gone the distance. Six of his 18 pro losses have come early, with three KOs and three submissions. His other 12 losses all went the distance. His last three early losses all notably ended in knockouts, two in the first round and one in the second.

This is Stephens' 15th year in the UFC and 34th fight with the organization. That type of mileage certainly takes its toll on the human body so it will be important to monitor him at weigh-ins as he’s moving up a weight class.

Fight Prediction:

Gamrot will have a 1” height advantage, but Stephens will have a 1” reach advantage.

Stephens is an aggressive striker who’s been facing top level competition for an extended period of time, but his days appear to be numbered and he only has five wins in his last 15 fights. He’s now moving up to 155 lb, where he lost his last three fights in 2011-2012 before dropping down to 145 lb. On top of that, Gamrot has never been finished in his career and has a more well rounded game than Stephens. We like Gamrot to win this fight, it’s just a question of how. Stephens has been submitted three times in his career, but all of those came in 2009 or earlier and his last 27 fights have all ended in knockout or decisions, with the one exception being a No Contest. We’re leaning Gamrot wins this by decision, but it’s certainly possible he gets another finish.

Our favorite bets here are “Gamrot Wins by Decision” at +210, “Gamrot Wins in R2” at +650 and “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +500.

DFS Implications:

We saw Gamrot land 39 significant strikes in his recent R2 KO win (6.13 SSL/min), but prior to that he hadn’t been a very high-volume striker. When you combine that with the fact that Stephens only absorbs an average of 3.06 significant strikes per minute, it will likely leave Gamrot more dependent on a finish or a completely dominating wrestling performance to score well. In Stephens’ last four decision losses, his opponents put up DK/FD scores of 82/81, 80/80, 73/77 and 86/84, so very consistently average on both DFS sites. Stephens’ slightly above average 65% takedown defense makes a completely dominant wrestling performance from Gamrot a little less likely, but it’s definitely not out of the question. We could see it playing out similar to Gamrot’s UFC debut where he went 5 for 16 on takedown attempts with about three and half minutes of control time. Had the decision gone his way there, he would have still scored just 86 DraftKings points and 84 points on FanDuel, so still not quite enough to be useful. That leads us to believe he likely needs a finish to return value here. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to get a finish and a 16% chance it comes in R1.

Beginning with the most recent, Stephens’ last three wins have been good for DK/FD scores of 90/101, 100/116, and 122/138. His last two wins both ended in second round knockouts, while the third ended in a decision but included a ridiculous FIVE knockdowns against Gilbert Melendez. That crazy knockdown total seems like an aberration and was greatly aided by the fact that Stephens destroyed the leg of Melendez early in the fight and a strong breeze could have knocked Melendez over after that. Stephens does have the potential to defend double digit takedowns in this upcoming match, as Gamrot leads the slate with 10 missed takedowns per 15 minutes. That makes Stephens a much more interesting play on FanDuel where he has the potential to serve as a value play even in a decision win. However, on DraftKings he’ll likely need a finish to score well as he would have scored just 72 DK points in his last decision win had it not been for the knockdown anomaly. The odds imply Stephens has a 34% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #2

Miesha Tate

10th UFC Fight (5-4)

Looking to mount a comeback at 34 years old following nearly a five year layoff, Tate is somehow still a full decade younger than her opponent Marion Reneau in this matchup.

Tate won the Women’s Bantamweight Belt with a 5th round submission victory over Holly Holm back in 2016, but then immediately lost it to Amanda Nunes in a first round submission. She followed that up with a decision loss against Raquel Pennington later in 2016 and then announced her retirement from MMA immediately following the fight. Fast forward almost five years and Tate has decided to return to the Octagon.

Tate is a pure grappler with a background in wrestling, who averages just 1.93 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing just 2.71 per minute. She lands 2.1 takedowns per 15 minutes on 7 attempts and has just a 31% takedown accuracy.

Of Tate’s 18 career wins, three have come by KO, seven by submission and eight ended in decisions. Five of her seven career losses have notably come early, with a pair of KOs and three submissions. However, the three submissions came against Amanda Nunes and Ronda Rousey (twice). Tate started her pro career at 145 lb before quickly dropping down to 135 lb. She originally turned pro all the way back in 2007.

Marion Reneau

13th UFC Fight (5-6-1)

Coming off four straight unanimous decision losses, the 44-year-old BJJ black belt/High School Gym teacher Reneau hasn’t won a fight in three and a half years. Her last four wins, however, did all come early. It sounds like she’s set on retiring after this fight, which in general isn’t a good sign for what we can expect here out of her.

She lost a low-volume decision to Macy Chiasson in her last match, with Chiasson leading in significant strikes 51-30 and in total strikes 92-59. Reneau went 2 for 4 on takedowns while Chiasson went 1 for 1.

Her last win was a February 2018 R2 Triangle Choke Submission win over Sara McMann, who has now lost three of her last four fights. Just before that Reneau knocked out Talita Bernardo in the third round of a 2017 match, but Bernardo has also lost three of her last four fights. Prior to knocking out Bernardo, Reneau fought Bethe Correia to a draw earlier in 2017. Staying on brand, Correia has also lost three of her last four fights. Four months prior to that draw, Reneau knocked out Milana Dudieva, who’s now lost five of her last six fights and is no longer in the UFC. Reneau lost a pair of decisions prior to knocking out Dudieva, but impressively submitted Jessica Andrade with a 2015 R1 Triangle Choke in her second UFC fight. Reneau’s 2015 UFC debut ended with her only career decision win as eight of her nine pro wins have come early (5 KOs & 3 Submissions).

Interestingly, all seven of her pro losses have ended in decisions. So her record with the judges is 1-7-1. In Reneau’s last ten fights, she has been taken down 20 times, while landing just 7 takedowns of her own. Her last 10 opponents all took her down at least once. She will sometimes pull guard to look for submissions off her back.

Nine of her last 10 fights have made it to the third round with seven of those going the distance. The three exceptions were a 2018 R2 Submission win, a 2017 R3 KO and a 2016 R3 KO. Her only UFC fight to end in the first round was a 2015 R1 Submission win over Jessica Andrade.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’6” but Reneau will have a 2” reach advantage.

This is an interesting matchup between a fighter coming out of retirement in Tate and another heading into retirement in Reneau. Tate lost her last two fights and Reneau is on a four fight skid of her own, but it’s important to note that while Tate has been finished in 4 of her last 5 losses, all seven of Reneau’s career losses ended in decisions. It’s hard to know how Tate will look after being retired for five years, but keep in mind Reneau has fought eight times since Tate last stepped inside the Octagon. We’re also attempting to navigate the fact that Reneau is already half retired herself and plans on hanging it up after this fight, which introduces a whole ‘nother narrative into the mix and it’s anyone’s guess how each of these ladies will look on Saturday as they trade places in the retirement pool. Either way, if Tate wins this fight we expect it to come in a low-volume grappling heavy decision, while Reneau has a chance to land a late finish, but is less likely to win with the judges.

Our favorite bets here are Reneau’s R2 and R3 win lines at +1400 and +1900 and Tate’s decision line at +110.

DFS Implications:

Tate has never scored more than 84 DraftKings and totaled just 80 DK points and 71 points on FanDuel in a fifth round submission win over Holly Holm back in 2016. While her fighting style is entirely based around grappling, she’s failed to land more than one takedown in seven of her last eight fights and owns a terrible 31% takedown accuracy. When you combine that with her ultra low-volume striking (1.93 SSL/min) and the fact that 4 of her 5 UFC wins ended in decisions, it’s very hard for her to score well in DFS. Now she gets an opponent who’s never been finished and is a BJJ black belt and things don’t look any easier. The only reason to have any optimism here is that Reneau is 44 years old and already has one foot out the door as she plans on retiring following this fight. Normally this would be a quick pass for us, but one interesting dynamic is that FanDuel upped the ante and curiously priced the favorite Tate at just $13, while setting the underdog, Reneau, at $15. That will drive Tate’s ownership way up (especially in low-risk contests) and Reneau’s ownership way down. That means we will see a concentrated amount of ownership on a fighter who has never scored well, is coming out of retirement and hasn’t fought in half a decade. What could go wrong? There are way too many high-ceiling cheap plays on this slate to think Tate makes sense in high-risk contests as a value play, and she looks exclusively like a low-risk play to us. The odds imply she has a 57% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

Similar to Tate, Reneau has really struggled to score well in DFS and hasn’t topped 91 DraftKings points in her last 10 fights. She did have a first round submission win back in 2015, but it still scored just 93 DraftKings points. That was however good for 109 FanDuel points and she looks like a slightly more interesting tournament play over there where she can score from takedowns defended and submission attempts—and more importantly for tournaments will be a super low-owned leverage play due to her gross mispricing where she’s $2 more expensive than the favorite. Tate has notably been submitted three times in her career and Reneau has submitted three opponents in the past. With that said, Reneau doesn’t land a ton of striking volume (3.29 SSL/min) and averages less than one takedown landed per 15 minutes, although she did land a pair in each of her last two fights. You won’t want a ton of exposure to this fight, but Reneau is the far more interesting tournament play on FanDuel and has a slight chance to serve as a value play on DraftKings. The odds imply she has a 43% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

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Fight #1

Islam Makhachev

10th UFC Fight (8-1)

After the Yair Rodriguez vs. Max Holloway main event was scrapped, this fight was moved to the headlining spot on this card.

Coming off a near flawless third round submission win over Drew Dober, Makhachev absolutely dominated Dober on the ground (as everyone expected going in). While Makhachev only led 15-10 in significant strikes, that jumped all the way up to 102-14 in total strikes and he also went 3 for 4 on takedowns while amassing nearly nine and a half minutes of control time before finishing Dober with an Arm-Triangle Choke a little under two minutes into the third round.

Prior to his recent win over Dover, Makhachev hadn’t stepped inside the Octagon since September 2019. He had been scheduled to fight Alexander Hernandez in April 2020, but the event was canceled due to COVID. He was then booked to take on Rafael dos Anjos on the Khabib vs. Gaethje undercard in October 2020, but RDA contracted COVID and was forced to withdraw. The fight was rebooked as the main event on the November 14th card, but then Makhachev was forced to withdraw due to an injury. That was the fight when Paul Felder then stepped in on less than a week’s notice.

In his second most recent fight, Makhachev took on a world champion grappler in Davi Ramos back in September 2019 and was predictably far less motivated to take the fight to the mat. In an ultra low-volume decision we saw each fighter fail on their only takedown attempt. The first two rounds played out entirely on the feet with neither guy attempting more than one strike at a time and both fighting very conservatively. However, early in the third round Makhachev was able to knock Ramos down and land solid ground and pound while exerting heavy top pressure for essentially the entire fourth round as he cruised to a decision win.

Makhachev also fought a really tough Arman Tsarukyan to a decision just before that. Tsarukyan is notably the only person to ever successfully take Makhachev down, but he was only able to do so once on 12 attempts. On the other side of things, Makhachev grounded Tsarukyan on four of his nine attempts. While Makhachev narrowly led 14-13 in the wrestling heavy affair, Tsarukyan actually came out ahead in total strikes 60-47, but Makhachev led in control time 6:06-1:47 and won the decision.

Makhachev’s only career loss came when he got knocked out in the first round of his second UFC fight at the hands of Adriano Martins, who then went on to lose his last four fights after that, not counting a No Contest. Since that loss, Makhachev has won seven straight fights.

In his nine fight UFC career (86 minutes and 41 seconds of Octagon time), Makhachev has absorbed less combined significant strikes (67) than Sean O’Malley landed in the first round of his last fight (77). He also doesn’t land many significant strikes himself. Here are the significant striking totals for his nine UFC fights beginning with the most recent: 15-10, 43-7, 14-13, 7-7, 3-2, 43-13, 12-5, 4-3, and 32-7. So in total. he has outlanded his nine opponents 173-67 in significant strikes. Amazingly, no one in the UFC has ever landed more than 13 significant strikes on Makhachev in a fight. That’s good for just 2.0 significant strikes landed per minute and just 0.77 absorbed per minute. Unsurprisingly, that’s the fewest number of significant strikes absorbed in UFC history for any fighter with at least five UFC fights.

A Combat Sambo world champion, Makhachev made his UFC debut in 2015 with a perfect 11-0 record. He won that first UFC fight with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission, before suffering his only career loss when he was knocked out less than two minutes into his second UFC fight with a single clean right hook. Since that loss, four of his seven fights have ended in decisions, while he finished the other three opponents with a 2018 R1 KO, a 2018 R1 Armbar Submission and the recent 2021 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke.

Of his 19 career wins, 11 have come early, with three KOs and eight submissions. All three of his career KO wins have come in the first round, although two of those occurred in his first three pro fights. Since then eight of his nine finishes have come by submission, including four in the first round, two in second and two in the third. This will notably be the first five round fight of his career.

A former training partner of Khabib, Makhachev is an exceptional grappler and holds a 93% takedown defense as he’s only been taken down once in the UFC. He also owns a 68% takedown accuracy going against Moises’ 63% takedown defense.

Thiago Moises

7th UFC Fight (4-2)

After joining the UFC at just 23 years old, Moises was thrown straight to the wolves in his 2018 UFC debut against Beneil Dariush. While both guys are BJJ black belts, Dariush controlled Moises for essentially the entire fight with 13:32 of control time and four takedowns on eight attempts. Moises failed on both of his takedown attempts, but did finish with four official submission attempts. However, Dariush was able to get out of all of them while winning the striking battle 113-20 and leading in significant strikes 44-8.

Moises bounced back with a decision win in his second UFC fight before losing a decision to 23-1 Damir Ismagulov, who’s currently on an 18 fight winning streak and 4-0 in the UFC. Following a 1-2 start to his UFC career, Moises landed an early second round leg lock submission on Michael Johnson to bring his record back to even. Johnson outlanded Moises 26-1 in strikes in the first round, but Moises immediately shot for a takedown to start the second round and then transitioned to a Heel Hook when it didn’t complete it. So Moises finished the fight behind in significant strikes 27-1 and 0 for 3 on takedowns but still landed a submission win while essentially accumulating no other states in five and half minutes of action.

Since then, Moises won a close decision against Bobby Green and then most recently won a decision against Alexander Hernandez. Green more than doubled the striking numbers of Moises, outlanding him 85-42 in significant strikes and 94-43 in total strikes. Both fighters went 2 for 3 on their takedown attempts and Moises narrowly came out ahead 1:51-1:11 in control time. Breaking it down round by round, Green doubled Moises’ strikes landed (26-13, 33-14 & 35-16) and significant strikes landed (26-13, 29-14 & 30-15) in all three rounds. Moises went 1 for 2 on takedowns in the first round, Green went 1 for 2 in the second round and both fighters went 1 for 1 in the third. Green thought he won the fight, and at least looking at the numbers it’s hard to argue, but Moises seemed to have the bigger moments in the fight. Either way, it was a very close fight.

In his most recent match, Moises took on Alexander Hernandez and despite being a +195 underdog and seemingly being at a striking disadvantage, Moises controlled the entire fight in a match that surprisingly played out entirely on the feet. Moises did shoot for one unsuccessful takedown, but looked sharper than ever in his striking as he picked Hernandez apart for three rounds and easily won a decision. The striking totals were close, with Moises coming out ahead 53-50, but he clearly did far more damage and showed just how much his striking has improved over the last few years.

Moises is now 4-2 in the UFC and 15-4 as a pro. Nine of his 15 career wins have come early, with three KOs and six submissions, but 5 of his last 6 fights have gone the distance. He’s never been finished and all four of his career losses have ended in decisions. Only three of his nine early wins came in the first round and two of those came in his first two pro fights. So 16 of his last 17 fights have seen the second round, with the one exception being a R1 KO win on DWCS in 2018 against an opponent who’s now lost 3 of his last 4 fights.

While this will be the first five round fight of Makhachev’s career, Moises competed in four prior to joining the UFC (2016-2017). He went 3-1 in those fights, with a R2 Armbar Submission win, a R5 KO win over Jamall Emmers, a decision win and a decision loss. So it will be interesting to see how the cardio holds up for each fighter if this fight makes it to the championship rounds.

Fight Prediction:

Makhachev will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach.

Already known as a dangerous grappler, Moises’ improved striking suddenly makes him a tougher opponent to game plan for. If Moises was a one-dimensional grappler like Davi Ramos, we would have some concern that Makhachev would take the path of least resistance and try to win this fight standing up, but we don’t see that happening here. Moises was dominated on the ground by Beneil Dariush, but did try to pull guard as he jumped Guillotine at multiple points. Makhachev showed he has no issue defending Guillotines when he took on Nik Lentz, who is known for his Guillotine Chokes. So while Moises is dangerous off his back and will undoubtedly be attempting defensive submissions, we don’t think it will be enough to deter Makhachev from implementing his normal wrestling heavy game plan. Moises will be reliant on landing a hail mary submission or KO to win this fight and we expect Makhachev to be too sharp to let that happen. So for us the question is just whether or not Makhachev can get a finish. A BJJ black belt, Moises’ grappling should make him a tough guy to submit and Makhachev only has one knockout in his last 17 fights. Therefore, we like the chances for this fight to go the distance and for Makhachev to get his hand raised in a lopsided decision.

While we think the most likely outcome is for Makhachev to win a decision here, apparently so does everyone else as the line has been bet down to -115. We don’t see any value there and his moneyline is unbettable at -750. So we don’t have much interest in betting this fight, but if you want to take a small stab, his +420 submission line is probably your best bet unless you want to take a stab at some of Moises’ longer lines.

DFS Implications:

Makhachev owns the record for the lowest average number of significant strikes absorbed in UFC history at 0.77 per minute, and no one has ever landed more than 13 on him in a fight. He’s also never landed more than 43 significant strikes in a fight himself and only averages 2.0 significant strikes landed per minute. So overall, his fights never include many significant strikes, but he does land a decent number of total strikes and racks up a ton of takedowns and control time. That inherently makes him a better DraftKings play than on FanDuel. Beginning with his most recent fight, he’s put up DK/FD scores of 100/87 (R3 SUB), 75/61 (DEC), 73/85 (DEC), 102/115 (R1 SUB), 126/114 (R1 KO), 105/82 (DEC), 89/61 (DEC), 2/2 (R1 KO L), and 107/117 (R2 SUB). So like most fighters, he’ll still put up solid scores on both sites with a finish in the first two rounds, but things get dicier on FanDuel after that. His recent R3 submission win still scored well on DraftKings due a high amount of total strikes and control time, but scored just 87 points on FanDuel. Of his four UFC decision wins, the only time he scored better on FanDuel than DraftKings came in an outlier performance where he defended 11 takedowns and had less control time than normal. And even with control time and total strikes boosting his DraftKings scores, he’s still only scored well in one of his four decisions over there. With that said, he’ll now have five rounds to work in this fight. If we extrapolate his three round decision numbers over five rounds—which is probably best case scenario as it assumes he can keep up a three round pace for 25 minutes—his DK/FD scores would be 105/88, 102/129, 155/124 and 129/88. The key takeaway there is that in two of those four decisions he still wouldn’t have returned value on FanDuel even with five rounds to work. So while that’s not a huge sample size, it seems fair to estimate that he has about a 50% chance to score well on FanDuel in a decision and would also have a tougher time returning value with a finish that occurs after the second round. It’s harder to see him fail on DraftKings, but one way it could happen is if he respects the submission threat of Moises enough to keep this fight standing, at which point his low-volume striking would be a death sentence to his DFS scoring. The odds imply he has a ridiculous 84% chance to win, a 35% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in R1.

Moises loses this fight 8 or 9 times out of ten, but Makhachev has been knocked out before and Moises is also always a threat to land submissions off his back. With that said, five of Moises’ last six fights have gone the distance and even in his lone early finish in the UFC he still scored just 70 DraftKings points and 81 points on FanDuel—although that was just one strike over the worst possible score you could get with a second round finish, so he can only improve from there. So even while Moises has only put up one usable score in his four UFC wins, in reality, if he wins this fight he would still likely end up in winning lineups at his dirt cheap DraftKings price tag. It’s not an absolute lock, but on a slate this size and the way dogs have been performing lately, it’s definitely far more likely than not. So you should really be focused more on the actual chances of him winning than what he would score if he did. And that’s where things get bleak. The odds imply he has just a 16% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish and a 4% chance it comes in R1.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma

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