Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Looking to skip the reading and get straight to the best plays and top bets? We're now offering premium DFS and betting content at patreon.com/mmadfs that includes our new DFS Cheat Sheet, with our top DraftKings, FanDuel and PrizePicks plays along with our DraftKings ownership projections, as well as our top early bets and our complete betting chart for every UFC fight.
Fight Day Scratches: Barcelos/Henry is OFF!
Fighter Notes:
Fight #14
Jordan Leavitt
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from his first career loss, Leavitt lost a disappointing decision in a sluggish wrestling match against one-dimensional grappler Claudio Puelles, who was able to control Leavitt for most of the fight as he finished with 10 minutes of control time on four takedowns, while stuffing 5 of Leavitt’s 7 attempts. Puelles never threatened a finish and Leavitt led in significant strikes 21-20 and in total strikes 170-71, but Puelles won a unanimous 29-28 decision.
That was just the third time Leavitt has seen round three in his short nine fight career, with all three of those ending in decisions. In his previous December 2020 UFC debut, Leavitt landed a 22 second R1 KO by Slam against a washed up Matt Wiman.
Leavitt is now 8-1 as a pro with six finishes, including four in the first round and two in the second. Five of those have ended in submissions, while he also has the one TKO by Slam. As a former high school wrestler, he’s a one-dimensional grappler without any real striking ability. He fought his first four pro fights at 145 lb, before moving up to 155 lb in February 2020 where he’s stayed since.
Leavitt got his shot in the UFC with a R1 Arm-Triangle Submission win on DWCS back in August 2020. In a fight that lasted four minutes and 15 seconds, we didn’t see many strikes being thrown as Leavitt finished ahead just 4-2 in significant strikes and 23-4 in total strikes. He only needed one takedown attempt to get his opponent, Luke Flores, down to the mat, which came just 16 seconds into the fight. Similar to his UFC debut, Leavitt went for a big slam in the first minute of that fight, but it didn’t have the same effect. Leavitt patiently advanced his position for the next several minutes as he worked towards a submission, which he eventually landed with 45 seconds left on the clock.
Four of Leavitt’s six finishes have notably come against very inexperienced opponents who entered with records of 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 and 3-0, and in general he hasn’t faced much in terms of competition in his career. With that said, he’ll get another questionable opponent in this next match.
Matt Sayles
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Looking to mount a comeback following a two year layoff, Sayles recently discussed what he’s been doing for the last two years as he had ACL and MCL surgery in addition to having a kid, and also blew up all the way to 250 lb after last competing at 145 lb most recently. He mentioned that while this next fight will be at 155 lb, it’s just a pitstop as he works his way back down to 145. After getting submitted by Bryce Mitchell with what was just the second Twister in UFC history, Sayles said he had to go to a sports psychologist just to get over it. He also claims he’s been working a ton on improving his Jiu-Jitsu, which is smart because his grappling looked terrible in his last fight.
In that December 2019 loss, Sayles notably missed weight by 2.5 lb and then proceeded to get taken down almost immediately in the fight and controlled on the mat for four minutes before getting submitted late in the first round. Sayles landed just two significant strikes in the fight and was practically shut out on the statsheet.
That was Sayles’ second loss in his three UFC fights, after he lost a close decision in his 2018 UFC debut against Sheymon Moraes in a pure striking battle, with Sayles finishing ahead in significant strikes 77-73 and no takedowns landed. Sayles bounced back from the loss with a 2019 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke Submission win over Kyle Nelson, who’s now 1-3 in the UFC.
Sayles started his pro career at 145 lb and even fought down at 135 lb once. This will just be his second fight up at 155 lb, but he notably knocked out UFC fighter Christian Aguilera in the first round of his previous 155 lb match in 2017, just before going on DWCS in 2018.
A sparring partner for Dominick Cruz, Sayles is now 8-3 as a pro, with six wins by KO, one by submission and one decision. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has lost a pair of decisions. He’s lost two of his last three fights and is just 3-3 in his last six. Five of his six career KO wins have notably occurred in the first round.
Nothing really stands out as impressive with Sayles, so the fact that he’s littered with red flags as he takes this fight up a weight class, while coming off a two year layoff and ACL surgery really makes you wonder how he’ll look going against a pure grappler after getting dominated on the mat in his last fight.
Fight Prediction:
Leavitt will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
This looks like a classic striker versus grappler matchup, which generally means someone will look terrible and determining who that will be just depends on where the fight takes place. Leavitt offers nothing on the feet and the same can be said of Sayles on the mat. Sayles has been taken down three times in his last two fights, so despite having an 81% takedown defense on paper, that was inflated by Kyle Nelson (12% career takedown accuracy) going 2 for 10 and Sheymon Moraes (0% career takedown accuracy) going 0 for 3 against him. The only true grappler Sayles has faced was Bryce Mitchell (46% career takedown accuracy), who immediately took Sayles down on his first attempt and controlled him for the entire first round before landing a late R1 Submission with a rare Twister. We like Leavitt to similarly get this fight to the ground and control Sayles as he works his way towards a submission in the first round and a half.
Our favorite bet here is “Leavitt R1 Submission Win” at +550.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
This looks like a prime bounce back spot for Leavitt, but it is somewhat concerning that he looked so sluggish and disinterested in his last fight. That notably came against another grappler who was able to neutralize Leavitt’s wrestling offense, so maybe that simply frustrated and wore down Leavitt. Now he gets an opponent that was outgrappled so badly in his last fight that he had to start seeing a sports psychologist to try and get his head right afterwards. On top of that, Sayles is coming off ACL surgery, a two-year layoff and has said he ballooned all the way up to 250 lb during his time off and therefore will be fighting up at 155 lb for the first time in the UFC as he works his way back down to 145 lb. With less than four rounds of UFC action under his belt, the jury remains out on Leavitt’s ability to be competitive in the UFC, but this looks like a favorable matchup and Leavitt has the potential to dominate opponents on the mat and land early submissions. His flukey 22 second R1 KO win by Slam in his debut was good for 120 DraftKings points, but it’s hard to take much away from that sort of win. More telling are the results from his DWCS fight, where Leavitt immediately took his opponent down and controlled him for four minutes before landing a late first round submission. That would have been good for 108 DraftKings points and 113 points on FanDuel. There’s a good chance we see a similar performance here, so Leavitt looks like a solid DFS play in all contest types as the cheapest favorite on the slate. The odds imply he has a 54% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish and an 18% chance it comes in the first round.
Sayles is an unimpressive fighter who’s 1-2 in the UFC and hasn’t competed in two years. His first three UFC fights were all at 145 lb, but now he’ll try to compete up a weight class at 155 lb as he slowly works his way down in weight after claiming he ballooned all the way up to 250 lb during his two year hiatus. While Sayles recently discussed how he’s been working on improving his Jiu-Jitsu, what else is he supposed to say/do after getting embarrassed on the mat in his last fight? We’ll believe he’s made major strides when we see it, but until then he looks like a fighter you want to go against if you’re a grappler. With so much uncertainty surrounding Sayles, and Leavitt lacking any sort of striking skills, you could certainly argue that this is a high-variance spot for DFS, which keeps Sayles in the conversation for tournaments. Seven of his eight career wins have come early, including five first round knockouts, so the theoretical upside is there. His only UFC win interestingly resulted from a third round Arm-Triangle Choke Submission, which was still good for just 91 DraftKings points. That was also the only submission win of his career. Sayles scored just 33 points in a close decision loss in his UFC debut, so we don’t see him scoring well without a finish. The odds imply he has a 46% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #13
Don'Tale Mayes
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off his first UFC win in three trips inside the Octagon, Mayes was finally fed someone even lower than him on the totem pole, as he defeated former UFC whipping boy Roque Martinez in a gross decision. The fight was almost dead even on the stat sheet as Mayes narrowly led in significant strikes 59-58, while Martinez led in total strikes 96-80. Both fighters went 1 for 2 on their takedown attempts, each finishing with around two and a half minutes of control time. Mayes simply coasted down the stretch, and his only promising moment in the match was when he took Martinez down late in the first round. Mayes was notably warned at multiple points early in the fight for extended fingers and he consistently had his fingers outstretched towards his opponent. So that will be one area of concern with him moving forward.
Mayes was a regular on DWCS as he made appearances in 2017, 2018 and 2019. After getting knocked out in the third round of his first appearance, he notched R2 and R1 KO victories in his most recent two trips on DWCS in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Mayes then got his shot in the UFC in 2019 in a brutally tough matchup against Ciryl Gane. Looking severely outmatched in that fight, Mayes was saved by the bell after getting dropped at the end of the first round by Gane. It was dangerously close to going down as a R1 KO loss, but instead he got dominated for almost three full rounds before getting submitted in the closing seconds of round three. Mayes also came close to getting finished in the first round of his next fight against Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira, but managed to survive to see a second round where he was then again submitted.
Prior to joining the UFC, Mayes had won four in a row since his 2017 loss on DWCS, with the last three all coming early. Now holding an 8-4 pro record, Mayes has four wins by KO, one by submission and three decision victories. His only career KO loss was in his 2017 DWCS fight, but he’s since been submitted twice. He also was disqualified once for an illegal elbow in the first round of a 2016 fight. Mayes does not appear to be a UFC level talent, although he is notably just 29 years old, so it’s always possible he can still improve with the proper coaching. We don’t really see it happening though and there’s a good chance he gets released with one more loss.
Josh Parisian
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Also coming off his first UFC win in a decision over Roque Martinez, Parisian narrowly escaped being the first person to ever lose to Martinez in the UFC, but was able to squeak out a split-decision victory. Parisian slightly outlanded Martinez 79-64 in significant strikes, but Martinez led in total strikes 245-100. Parisian also notably went 1 for 7 on takedown attempts, after failing to attempt a takedown in his previous debut loss. We saw extended periods of time with both guys pushing the other against the cage, which is how Martinez finished with such a high striking total as he pattered away at Parisian with unimposing love taps. Martinez locked up a Guillotine Choke as Parisian looked for a takedown late in the second round, but Parisian was able to escape and return to his feet. The sloppy fight was close and seemed like it could have gone either way, but you don’t need to take our word for it. In his post fight interview, Michael Bisping asked Parisian, “How confident were you that you would get the decision?” Parisian responded, “Uhhhhh…I’ll be honest, I wasn’t super confident. I thought I worked really hard. But I wasn’t sure because of the cage control. Sometimes he had…I think he had me on the wall more. And then when I did have him on the wall he was punching me in the face.” To which Bisping responded, “Yeah he definitely punched you in the face a few times.”
Just before that close win, Parisian competed in a high-volume brawling decision loss in his UFC debut against Parker Porter. It’s interesting that he’s now gone to two straight decisions, as Parisian’s previous 10 fights had all ended in the first two rounds. Coming into the UFC, it had been nearly four years since he had been in a fight that lasted longer than 10 minutes and he looked visibly exhausted late in both of his two UFC matches. The only other two times in his 18-fight pro career that he had seen the third round occurred in a 2015 decision loss in his second pro fight and a 2017 decision win in his sixth pro fight. His other 14 fights have all ended in the first two rounds with him winning 12 of those.
Owning a 14-4 pro record, he’s been finished twice, initially in a 2017 R2 KO and then more recently from a 2019 R1 Kimura Submission. The decision loss in his UFC debut snapped a six fight winning streak that included five first round KOs and one in round two. He does have two submission wins on his record, both in the second round, but those came in his third and fourth pro fights back in 2015 and 2016. His last nine early wins have all come by KO.
In his November 2020 UFC debut, Parisian took on a shorter 6’0” tall Parker Porter, who was coming off a R1 KO loss to Chris Daukaus in his own UFC debut. Porter looked motivated to notch his first UFC win against Parisian and consistently put the pressure on. We saw a crazy amount of striking volume being thrown, especially for a Heavyweight bout, with over 450 combined significant strikes attempted in the match. Porter outlanded Parisian 126-114 in significant strikes and 164-123 in total strikes. Porter also landed 2 of his 4 takedown attempts and finished with almost four and a half minutes of control time.
While Parisian’s previous August 2020 fight on DWCS ended late in the first round with a ground and pound KO win, he was on pace to land 117 significant strikes and absorb 89. That early finish was his second first round KO on the show after he initially landed a Spinning Backfist R1 KO back in 2018. While the 2018 finish didn’t get him a contract, the 2020 encore did. Following his first appearance on DWCS, Parisian took a shot at The Ultimate Fighter. However, he didn’t last long as he was knocked out in the second round of what counted as an exhibition match so it doesn’t show up on his pro record. He was then forced to return to the regional scene where he was submitted in the first round of his next fight and at that point he appeared to be in somewhat of a downward spiral. However, he seemed to shake it off and knocked out his next six opponents, before triumphantly returning to DWCS and finally getting the contract he was looking for.
Parisian throws more kicks and spinning strikes than your typical Heavyweight and claims to have the speed of a Middleweight (don’t they all). Overall he’s just a sloppy Heavyweight that doesn’t appear to be UFC caliber.
Fight Prediction:
Mayes will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
Prepare yourself for a super sloppy shitshow between these two low-level Heavyweights. It’s somewhat amazing that either of these two are even in the UFC and now one of them will undeservingly leave this fight without a losing record, ensuring they stick around even longer. They’ve each only been knocked out once in their respective careers and neither has very impressive power for the division, so it would not at all be surprising to see this go the full 15 minutes with periodic snack breaks in the later rounds as they push each other up against the cage. Mayes likes to throw flying knees, while Parisian favors spinning attacks, which are probably the best shot for either to get a finish. Outside of landing one of those low percentage hail marys or potentially notching a TKO finish by ground and pound, this looks like it will end in a coin flip decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at +132.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
This sets up as a sloppy Heavyweight bout with a wide range of outcomes. Mayes looks like a R1 or bust play for DFS and this feels like it sets up for disappointment, but the oddsmakers and the betting market once again seem to think Mayes gets it done early. Mayes has done nothing to get us excited about playing him, and the best two things he has going for him are that he’ll be low owned and is going against an opponent who averages the second most significant strikes absorbed on the slate at 6.13/min. The odds imply Mayes has a 64% chance to win, a 39% chance to get a finish and a 19% chance it comes in the first round.
Parisian’s high-volume UFC debut inflates his striking numbers, but with that said, he averages the third most significant strikes landed on the slate at 6.53/min. Mayes was submitted in his first two UFC fights, and while Parisian doesn’t appear to be much of a submission threat, he does have two submission wins on his record, albeit all the way back in 2015 and 2016 in his third and fourth pro fights. Parisian also notably attempted seven takedowns in his last fight, but he only landed one and didn’t attempt any in his UFC debut. We’d rather play Parisian than Mayes here simply based on their price tags, but both guys are gross hold your nose and pray plays. The fact that they’re each so bad does make this a higher variance spot, and while we expect their terribleness to essentially result in a stalemate, it does present the possibility for one of them to dominate the other just based on how low-level of a fight this will be. And any time two Heavyweights step inside the Octagon, one punch can obviously close the show. Mayes is also coming off a 13 month layoff, which is never a good sign. The odds imply Parisian has a 36% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #12
Raquel Pennington
15th UFC Fight (9-5)Pennington had been scheduled to face Julia Avila here, but Avila withdrew after suffering a knee injury and Chiasson stepped in on just 11 day’s notice. This fight had originally been booked at 135 lb but it got moved up to 145 lb following the opponent change.
After serving a six month USADA suspension for “accidentally” ingesting a banned substance, we didn’t see Pennington inside the Octagon for 15 months following a June 2020 decision win over Marion Reneau. Upon her return, she defeated a surging Pannie Kianzad, who had won four straight decisions coming in. As she often does, Pennington was able to control Kianzad for periods of time in the clinch along the fence. Kianzad actually finished ahead in significant strikes 50-48, but Pennington led in total strikes 98-85 and in control time 6:16-5:34, while both ladies landed one takedown. With nearly 12 minutes of combined control time it was a quintessential Raquel Pennington fight and a great time to grab a beer or a snack.
With that decision win, Pennington’s most recent five and eight of her last nine fights have all gone the distance. The one exception was a R5 KO loss against Nunes. The last time Pennington finished anybody was when she submitted an undersized Jessica Andrade in the second round of a 2015 fight. Eleven of Pennington’s 14 UFC fights have gone the distance, with four of those being split. Her fights to end early were a 2014 R1 Submission win, a 2015 R2 Submission win and the 2018 R5 TKO loss.
In her second most recent fight, Pennington actually set a career high in significant strikes landed (107) against an aging Reneau while absorbing just 46. She also tacked on a takedown on two attempts and amassed nearly five and a half minutes of control time.
Looking at her entire pro career, Pennington is 12-8 with one KO to her name, three submission victories and eight decision wins. She’s been knocked out once and submitted another time, with the submission loss coming in a 2012 R2 Rear-Naked Choke loss against Cat Zingano before she joined the UFC. Her other six losses all went the distance.
Macy Chiasson
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Chiasson had been scheduled to face Aspen Ladd in both July and October, but Chiasson withdrew from the first matchup due to an injury and then reportedly turned down the fight after Ladd missed weight in October.
Coming off a low-volume decision win over a now-retired Marion Reneau, Macy Chiasson led in significant strikes 51-30 and in total strikes 92-59. Reneau went 2 for 4 on takedowns with 2:15 of control time, while Chiasson went 1 for 1 with 3:48 of control time.
After four of her first five pro fights ended early, Chiasson’s last three matches have now all gone to the judges. After suffering her first career loss in a 2019 decision, Chiasson bounced back with a pair of decision wins in her last two fights.
Chiasson got her shot in the UFC very early in her pro career, coming up through The Ultimate Fighter in 2018, after fighting just twice as a pro before that. The UFC seems more willing to take a chance early in the careers of physically gifted fighters, and Chiasson fits the bill at 5’11”, where she towers over the rest of the 135 lb division. She began her pro career at 145 lb, but as many fighters do, she moved down to 135 lb after her first UFC fight.
With a 7-1 pro record, Chiasson’s first two early wins came by submission in her first and third pro fights, but her most recent two finishes were both by KO. She also has three decision wins and one decision loss.
UPDATE: Chiasson missed weight by 2.5 lb after this fight was already moved up from 135 lb to 145 lb. Tipping the scales at 148.5 lb she now holds the all time UFC record for the heaviest female fighter weigh-in.
Fight Prediction:
Chiasson will have a 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage in addition to being the heavier fighter.
We expect this to play out as a grinding clinch battle along the fence with large amounts of control time and little entertainment value. Pennington has fought to five straight decisions, while Chiasson has fought to three straight. They’re both powerful women who should be able to control the other for periods of time and unless this surprisingly turns into a striking battle, we expect to see a close/boring decision that could go either way. Chiasson has a noticeable size advantage, even before the weight miss, so in the type of fight we expect, we’ll give her the slight edge to pull off the upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Chiasson Wins by Decision” at +280.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Pennington is an unlikely candidate to generally score well in DFS with DraftKings totals of 75, 95, 71, 78, 77, 64 and 107 in her last seven wins. Her lone triple digit score came in a 2015 submission win and she generally struggles to crack 80 points. She set a career high in significant strikes in her second most recent fight, which allowed her to score a somewhat respectable 95 DraftKings points, but it’s hard to rely on her setting new career totals every time out. We don’t have much interest in playing her, but she will be low owned for what it’s worth. The odds imply she has a 60% chance to win, a 24% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.
Chiasson has put up big DFS scores in four of her five UFC wins with DraftKings totals of 75, 108, 111, 111 and 102 in those fights. While three of those scores were driven by finishes, she also had a 108 point performance in her second most recent decision win. She amassed nine and half minutes of control time and landed 154 total strikes (86 significant) to go along with three takedowns to reach that number, but it came against a much lower level fighter and now she faces a really tough opponent to score well against in Pennington. It will be interesting to see how much the field chases Chiasson’s earlier success, as she projects to be twice as owned as the favorite in this fight. While Chiasson has proven she can score well, we hate this matchup and expect to see a back and forth clinch battle with neither fighter putting up a huge score. With that said, considering her price and past upside, it does make sense to have some level of exposure to Chiasson, just keep in mind this looks like the toughest matchup of her career and we still want to be under the field. The odds imply she has a 40% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish and a 6% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #11
Charles Jourdain
7th UFC Fight (2-3-1)Riding out the last fight on his contract, Jourdain had the option to renegotiate before this fight, but instead opted to bet on himself. He said he knows if he loses he could be cut because of that, but he has total confidence in himself. That says a lot coming off the first early loss of his career, but confidence has never been his issue.
He’s coming off a crazy back and forth brawl against Julian Erosa where both guys had their moments, but Erosa ultimately sealed the victory with a third round Brabo Choke. Erosa notably stepped into that fight on short notice after Lerone Murphy withdrew, which is why it took place at a 150 lb Catchweight. That’s the second time in Erosa’s last four fights that he accepted a fight on short notice and pulled off a major upset—both times by Brabo Choke in the third round. Erosa finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 103-85, but Jourdain dropped him in the second round and had all of the momentum going into the third round before Erosa was able to take him down and force a tap. Despite all of the crazy brawls Jourdain has been part of, that was the first time he has ever been finished, and he’s still never been knocked out.
Jourdain has now landed six takedowns in his last five fights, although because that last match was a 150 lb Catchweight he’s still tied for 10th all time among Featherweights with five in that weight class. For context, that’s just one knockdown behind Conor McGregor in the weight class. He’s landed a pair of knockdowns in both of his UFC wins and if he can land two more on Saturday he’ll shoot up to number four on the list just behind Max Holloway.
While Jourdain is sitting on an unimpressive 2-3-1 UFC record, one of his three losses occurred in his short notice UFC debut up a weight class at 155 lb and another came in a 150 lb Catchweight. So of his four fights at his normal 145 lb weight, he’s actually 2-1-1 with his only loss coming in a split-decision against a really tough Andre Fili. Jourdain nearly finished Fili in the first round before the veteran bounced back to win the later rounds.
After losing a split-decision loss to Fili in June 2020, Jourdain fought to a split-decision draw in October 2020 against Josh Culibao. He looked like he was really forcing the issue with bonus hunting early on, as he went for a flying knee to start the fight and attempted another one just 30 seconds later. Neither attempt was close to landing and the second one resulted in him getting tied up for a couple of minutes. A minute later he threw another risky strike with a spinning backfist that ended up with him getting dropped with a stiff right hook. He was able to recover and stand up, but right into a Guillotine attempt. Again he recovered and nearly landed a submission of his own, but instead finished the round behind and with what appeared to be a broken nose. He calmed down in the second round and seemingly evened the score. Then Jourdain stumbled Culiabao early in the third round, before nearly submitting him late. After a terrible start to the fight he appeared to have done enough to win a decision, but the judging was all over the place with one ruling it 30-27 Jourdain, another 29-28 Culiabao and the third a 28-28 draw.
Now 11-4-1 as a pro, all 11 of Jourdain’s career wins have come early, with eight KOs and three submissions. His first three career losses all ended in decisions prior to his recent submission defeat. Jourdain is an exciting striker, but he’s never landed a takedown in the UFC, so he’s somewhat one-dimensional. He will look for opportunistic submissions, but he hasn't landed one since 2018. With just a 50% career takedown defense, he’s also been somewhat prone to getting taken down at times, which is one of the contributing factors as to why he’s never won a decision. He’s also more worried about offense than defense, so he both lands and absorbs a decently high number of strikes as he averages 5.07 SSL/min (9th most on the slate) and 4.72 SSA/min (6th most on the slate).
Andre Ewell
9th UFC Fight (4-4)After losing his last two matches and three of his last five, Ewell has opted to move up a weight class to 145 lb, where he’s only competed once before in his career, which ended in a 2016 R3 Submission loss. His most recent loss ended in a second round TKO against fellow Southpaw Julio Arce, who was consistently able to cleanly land his left hand on Ewell. We didn’t see a huge number of strikes landed, but Arce made the ones he did land count and had Ewell hurt at more times than one. Arce finished ahead in significant strikes 42-31, but the fight was stopped along the fence before he could land a knockdown as Ewell stood on wobbly legs.
Prior to that, Ewell lost a decision to Chris Gutierrez, who badly tore up Ewell’s legs. That was Ewell’s third straight decision, and all four of his UFC wins have also gone the distance with three of those ending in split-decisions, including the last two. So had those most recent two split-decisions not gone his way, he could be looking at five straight losses. While all of his UFC wins have ended with the judges, three of his four losses with the organization have ended early, including a R2 TKO, a R3 TKO and a R3 Submission.
Looking at his entire career, Ewell holds a 17-8 record, with seven KOs, four submissions and six decision wins. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted three times and has lost three decisions. Three of his five career early losses have notably occurred in the third round. Eight of Ewell’s 11 early wins occurred early in his career on the regional scene in the “Gladiator Challenge.” Ewell has a very wide stance and long skinny legs that make him very vulnerable to leg strikes. He has landed just two takedowns in his eight UFC fights, and is primarily just a striker.
Fight Prediction:
Jourdain will have a 1” height advantage, but Ewell will have a 6” reach advantage. Jourdain is also notably seven years younger than the 33-year-old Ewell.
Jourdain has a habit of making fights closer than the odds indicate, largely due to his somewhat reckless fighting style, which is something you always want to keep in mind when he fights. Both of these two fighters are most dangerous with their left hands, as Ewell fights almost exclusively out of the Southpaw stance while Jourdain will switch it up, but appears most comfortable also fighting Southpaw. While Southpaws are generally more accustomed to fighting Orthadox opponents, both of these two notably went up against fellow Southpaws in their most recent fights which could potentially increase their comfort levels to some extent. Ewell was consistently keeping his right hand low in his last fight and was repeatedly caught with the left hand of Arce, which Ewell was not seeing well at all in the match. Considering Jourdain’s most dangerous weapon is also his left hand, that could spell trouble for Ewell once again. The fact that Ewell is moving up a weight class for the first time in over five years and lost his lone career fight up at Featherweight is also not encouraging for his chances, but it does add some level of uncertainty as to how he’ll look. With that said, we really like Jourdain to land a late knockout to win this fight.
Our favorite bet here is “Jourdain R3 Win” at +1400.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
With all 11 of his career wins coming early, Jourdain only joined the UFC to do two things—kick some ass and win some titles. And it looks like his title aspirations are about done without a win here. He’s made a huge bet on himself by not renewing his deal with the UFC prior to this fight, and now he steps into a prove it situation following the first early loss of his career. It looks like a favorable matchup for him to exceed as he takes on an opponent who’s moving up a weight class and has been finished in three of his four UFC losses, while narrowly winning decisions in his four UFC wins. That should give Jourdain plenty of opportunity to land a knockout and he shouldn’t have to worry too much about getting taken down or finished himself. We saw Ewell struggle against another Southpaw in his last fight, which further boosts our confidence in Jourdain’s ability to land a finish. Jourdain has been a boom or bust DFS commodity, with scores of 117 and 118 in his two UFC wins, but just 28, 36 and 22 in his draw and two decision losses. So he’s clearly reliant on landing a finish to score well and can’t return value in a decision—not that he’s ever won one. He’s never landed a takedown in the UFC, but has a ridiculous six knockdowns in his last five fights, including two in both of his wins. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish and an 18% chance it comes in the first round.
Ewell has yet to show any sort of DraftKings ceiling so far in the UFC, as he’s scored 81, 63, 59, and 68 DK points in his four UFC wins. Now he’s moving up a weight class, which presumably lowers his chances for landing a finish even further. Jourdain has also notably never been knocked out and submitted just once. Ewell doesn’t appear to be much of a submission threat at the UFC level, but he did have four submission wins on the regional scene in 2018 and prior. Jourdain’s brawlings style does result in him getting hit a fair amount and he’s notably gone 0-3-1 in decisions, so there’s a slight chance Ewell could win a decision and serve as value play if the majority of the other dogs on the slate struggle, but it’s still a longshot. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Sijara Eubanks
10th UFC Fight (5-4)After fighting her previous six fights up at 135 lb, Eubanks dropped back down to 125 lb for her most recent match and took on a short notice replacement making her UFC debut in Elise Reed. The one-dimensional striker in Reed never stood a chance in the ambush, and Eubanks manhandled her on the mat for nearly four minutes before finishing the fight with ground and pound late in the 1st. Reed finished with just a single significant strike landed in the beatdown.
Eubanks’ other two most recent fights at 125 lb were back in 2018, where she previously defeated Roxanne Modafferi and Lauren Murphy in decisions in her first two UFC fights. Eubanks has bounced back and forth between 135 lb and 125 lb throughout her career, but the majority of her fights have been at 135 lb. After winning her first two UFC fights at 125 lb, Eubanks moved up to 135 lb in a rematch against Aspen Ladd (from their Invicta days), which ended with the same result as their first fight—a decision loss for Eubanks. Despite starting 2-0 at 125 lb in the UFC and then losing at 135 lb, Eubanks stayed at 135 lb and lost another decision, this time to Bethe Correia. Undeterred, Eubanks stayed at the higher weight class despite her struggles. She then won a pair of decisions against Sarah Moras and Julia Avila before losing a pair of decisions to Ketlen Vieira and Pannie Kianzad more recently.
While she’s gone just 2-4 at 135 lb in the UFC, Eubanks is 3-0 at 125 lb with the organization, but often struggles with the weight cut. Her only career loss at 125 lb came against Katlyn Chookagian in a decision in her second pro fight in 2015 before either joined the UFC. Eubanks also went 3-0 at 125 lb during a run on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017, but all three of those fights were recorded as exhibition bouts so they don’t show up on her official record. While getting down to 125 lb has been an ongoing challenge for Eubanks, she’s had great success in those fights nevertheless.
Prior to her recent R1 TKO win, Eubanks had been a decision machine, with her previous nine fights all going the distance. The only other two fights of her career to end early were a pair of R1 KOs in her first and third pro bouts. Those notably came against very inexperienced opponents in 1-3 Gina Begley and 1-2 Amberlynn Orr. Eubanks is now 7-6 as a pro, with three wins by KO and four by decision. Despite being a BJJ black belt, she’s never landed a submission. She’s also never been finished, with all six of her career losses going the distance.
UPDATE: Eubanks missed weight by 1.5 lb as she continues to struggle trying to make 125 lb.
Melissa Gatto
2nd UFC Fight (2-0)Coming off a bizarre post round two doctor stoppage TKO win in her UFC debut, Gatto took on a questionable UFC talent in Victoria Leonardo, who’s now 0-2 in the UFC with both fights ending by R2 TKO. Gatto was clearly winning the fight, but had failed on all of her attempts to land a submission and did not appear close to getting a finish. Then following the second round, Leonardo told her corner that her arm “wasn’t working” and the fight was quickly stopped after the doctor checked it out, despite Leonardo saying she could continue. For any young fighters out there, if you really want to continue, you don’t tell people you’re injured. Apparently Leonardo had recently had surgery on that same arm and it was just an unfortunate ongoing injury for her, opposed to a new injury that Gatto had actually caused. So regardless, Gatto walks away with a R2 TKO by default in a fight that otherwise looked like it would likely end in a decision. After 10 minutes of action, Gatto led in significant strikes 70-43 and in total strikes 96-59. She landed 1 one of her 5 takedown attempts, with just under two minutes of control time, while Leonardo went 0 for 3 on her attempts.
Prior to making her UFC debut, Gatto hadn’t fought in nearly three years, as her last four scheduled fights and six of her previous seven bookings had all been canceled. She withdrew from three of those fights due to a pair of injuries and travel restrictions. Her second most recent fight was in September 2018 and she submitted an impressive Karol Rosa in the first round with a Kimura. That was Gatto’s fourth career first round submission win, while she also has two draws and two decision victories on her record along with the recent R2 TKO. She’s now 7-0-2 as a pro and has never lost a fight in her short career.
Gatto started her career at 135 lb, before dropping down to 125 lb for her recent debut. She hasn’t faced much in terms of competition outside of Karol Rosa as her first seven opponents entered with records of 0-1, 2-1, 1-1, 5-4, 1-0, 0-0, and 9-4-1. Still just 25 years old, Gatto is early in her career and is somewhat of an interesting prospect if she can continue to improve her striking, but this is a really tough matchup for her.
Fight Prediction:
Gatto will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. She’s also notably 11 years younger than the 36-year-old Eubanks.
Both of these two are coming off early wins against low-level opponents so this represents a step up in competition for each of them. With that said, Eubanks has been fighting mostly tough competition for her entire career, while Gatto has mostly been submitting a bunch of cans. So this should be a massive step up in competition for Gatto compared to what she’s used to. We like Eubanks to grind out a decision win here.
Our favorite bet here is “Eubanks’ Wins by Decision” at +150.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Eubanks has shown a solid DraftKings floor in her decision wins with scores of 100, 85, 93 and 83, but only has one finish in her last 10 fights, which occurred in her last match where scored 113 DraftKings points. That notably came against a low-level UFC newcomer who took the fight on short notice and had zero grappling skills, so the results were unsurprising and chasing that score in DFS is a mistake. With that said, Eubanks has looked much more dominant fighting down at 125 lb then she did up at 135 lb, despite it being a tough weight cut for her. She notably missed weight by 1.5 lb for this fight, which adds some overall uncertainty to this matchup as we don’t know just how hard she tried to hit the mark. If she killed herself trying to make weight then it benefits Gatto, but if she simply stopped trying to cut to preserve her health then the size advantage could help Eubanks, especially in what we expect to be a grappling heavy affair. Gatto is a submission specialist but also just a BJJ purple belt, while Eubanks is a black belt, so on paper at least that favors Eubanks. While we don’t expect Eubanks to get a finish, she does appear prepared to defend whatever Gatto throws at her. With Gatto so new to the UFC and Eubanks at a new weight class, this is somewhat of a high-variance spot, which increases the range of outcomes. We’d still be surprised to see Eubanks land another finish, and at her expensive price tag it could be hard for her to return value in a decision unless she controls Gatto on the ground for essentially the entire fight the way she did Julia Avila, which is always possible. The odds imply she has a 59% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Gatto is coming off a flukey slate-breaking performance in her UFC debut where she was awarded a R2 TKO win after her opponent reinjured a previous arm injury and the doctor stopped the fight before the third round. Without that context you might be inclined to chase that past score, which is what we expect a good portion of the field to do. Eubanks is an absolutely terrible matchup for Gatto, and unless the weight miss really takes a hit on Eubanks’ cardio, we don’t see Gatto winning this fight. With that said, she does have four career first round submission wins, so she’s proven herself dangerous on the mat. However, Eubanks is a BJJ black belt who’s never been finished and we'd be surprised to see Gatto change that. Gatto has seen the line move in her favor throughout the week, for what it’s worth, so we understand having some exposure, just realize she’ll be a popular underdog play and you want to be under the field in tournaments. The odds imply she has a 41% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #9
Justin Tafa
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Desperately needing a win to remain in the UFC, Tafa has dropped two straight decisions after his first two UFC fights each ended in 130 seconds or less.
Tafa most recently lost to Jared Vanderaa in a bloody high-volume brawl where Vanderaa looked far more comfortable without having to worry about getting taken down as he led Tafa in significant strikes 121-74 and in total strikes 141-74. Neither fighter attempted any takedowns in the 15 minute striking match, and Vanderaa easily won a decision. Vanderaa did get cut open in the second round and the ref took a hard look at him as he bled all over the Octagon, but the fight was allowed to continue.
Just prior to that, Tafa lost a split decision to Carlos Felipe. Tafa did lead in significant strikes 86-77, total strikes 109-77 and control time 1:53-0:41, but obviously that doesn’t tell the whole story, and Felipe actually appeared to do the most damage in the close fight. Tafa’s only UFC win was a R1 KO of Juan Adams who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released after his third straight loss when he was knocked out by Tafa.
Tafa has just seven pro fights to his name, with four of them coming in the UFC, and the first five of them ending in KOs. He won his first three pro fights on the Australian regional scene, all in the first two rounds, before surprisingly getting called up to the UFC with just three fights on his record. His UFC debut was short lived, as he was face-planted and left snoring by Yorgan De Castro just 130 seconds into the match.
Tafa is your stereotypical Heavyweight boxer who’s mostly just looking to land heavy bombs on the feet. He did mix it up a little in his fight against Felipe as he attempted two takedowns, but he failed to land either and is definitely not a grappler. He’s now 4-3 as a pro with all four of his wins coming by KO and two of his three losses ending in decisions.
UPDATE: Tafa missed weight by 1 lb as he became the first Heavyweight to ever miss weight.
Harry Hunsucker
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a quick 49 second R1 TKO loss in his March 2021 UFC debut, Hunsucker amazingly has never been past the first round—or even the four minute mark—in any of his 11 pro fights. It didn’t take long to realize why in his UFC debut, as Hunsucker came out swinging, landing a heavy two-punch combination on Tai Tuivasa in the opening 30 seconds. However, Tuivasa was able to absorb the strikes and respond with a debilitating leg kick that left Hunsucker hobbling. Tuivasa then dropped him with a couple of right hands and quickly finished him on the mat with ground and pound. So overall Hunsucker showed he’s all offense and while he does look to have pretty crisp striking, he’s not at all durable and quickly folds under pressure. Hunsucker notably took that fight on short notice after just fighting a few weeks earlier on the regional scene.
In fairness to Hunsucker, he’s won six of his last eight fights and the two he lost were a DWCS fight and his recent debut, both of which he took on short notice against the two toughest opponents of his career. His last three losses have actually all come against fighters currently in the UFC, as he was knocked out by Don'tale Mayes in 2016 in what was Hunsucker’s third pro fight and Mayes’ first.
Hunsucker took his DWCS on just four days notice and had just fought less than three weeks earlier (similar to this UFC debut). Hunsucker was the aggressor in that match early on and landed some decent shots, but once Vanderaa got him to the ground he was quickly able to finish him with ground and pound as Hunsucker lay face down on the mat.
After losing on DWCS, Hunsucker took on a 300 lb opponent in a fight just a few weeks prior to making his UFC debut. Hunsucker knocked out the big fella in just 45 seconds while taking no damage whatsoever.
Prior to those three fights, Hunsucker landed back-to-back R1 submission wins on the Kentucky regional scene, against terrible opponents who entered with records of 15-17 and 9-14. Overall, Hunsucker’s wins have come against some really questionable talent who entered with records of 1-9, 0-0, 2-5, 1-0, 15-17, 9-14 and 4-3. Surprisingly for a man of his stature, four of Hunsucker’s seven finishes have come by submission and he’s actually a third degree black belt in Taekwondo, a 2nd degree black belt in Krav Maga and a BJJ brown belt.
After tipping the scale at 249.5 lb for his short notice DWCS fight and 249 lb for his short notice UFC debut, Hunsucker looked in better shape for this fight as he checked in at 238.5 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Hunsucker will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Never forget that Justin Tafa got absolutely cadavered by Yorgan De Castro just two years ago as they both made their respective UFC debuts. Since then, Tafa has lost two of his last three fights and De Castro lost three straight before getting released by the UFC. Tafa has at least looked somewhat durable since then as he’s fought to two straight decisions. While Hunsucker also looks very prone to getting knocked out, it’s worth remembering that his only two losses in the last five years came on short notice against guys who are currently in the UFC. Tafa is arguably not a UFC-level talent and it seems like this line should be closer. Both of these big uglies are fully capable of finishing the other and we wouldn’t be surprised to see either one get put to sleep. With that said, we kind of like Hunsucker’s chances to pull off the upset with a first round finish as Tafa has already squandered multiple opportunities in the UFC, while this will be Hunsucker’s first UFC fight where he actually had time to prepare. Just keep in mind, Hunsucker is not at all durable so he has a very short shelf life in this fight if he’s unable to put Tafa away early.
Our favorite bet here is “Hunsucker R1 Win” at +750.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Tafa is a pure R1 KO or bust play who couldn’t top 42 DraftKings points in either of his recent two decision losses. He’s failed to impress us so far in the UFC but now he gets a dream matchup for DFS production against an opponent who’s never been past the first round in 11 pro fights. So this is a gross spot where we’re forced to determine which guy is worse and who’s chin will give out first. Tafa has looked to be the more durable of the two for the most part, but he was also violently put to sleep by a terrible Yorgan De Castro in his UFC debut two years ago, showing that one perfectly placed punch can certainly get the job done. Overall, it’s tough to say with any certainty who wins this fight, so the best strategy is to target both sides with your exposure. The odds imply Tafa has a 74% chance to win, a 59% chance to land a finish and a 37% chance it comes in R1.
With all 11 of Hunsucker’s pro fights ending in the first round, there’s obviously a really really good chance the winner of this match gets a first round finish. Neither one of these two have ever won a decision, as all four of Tafa’s wins have come by KO. At his cheap price tag, Hunsucker is the more interesting of the two plays here simply based on what it allows you to do with the rest of your lineup and the fact that the line seems too wide. With that said, there’s a good chance that Hunsucker gets finished very quickly in the first round. We recommend targeting both sides and just praying they don’t stare at each other for 15 minutes out of nowhere. The odds imply Hunsucker has a 26% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #8
Raoni Barcelos
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Barcelos had been scheduled to face Trevin Jones here, but Jones withdrew and Henry stepped into his UFC debut on 10 day’s notice.
Looking to bounce back from his first loss in his last 10 fights dating back to 2014, and just the second loss of his career, Barcelos dropped a decision to a tough opponent in Timur Valiev. Barcelos came out flat in the fight and lacked any sense of urgency throughout the match. He also failed to attempt a takedown for the first time in his UFC career, after landing 9 on 16 attempts in his first five UFC fights. He did look close to landing a finish late in the second round as he dropped Valiev twice in a row, but then he took top position on the mat and literally laid on top of Valiev motionless for the final 30 seconds. It appeared that just a few more ground strikes might get the fight stopped and maybe he just punched himself out but it was really bizarre. He then made very little effort to win the fight in the third round despite it clearly being tied up at that point. It’s hard to know what was going on in his head, and he dropped out of a fight four months early due to COVID. So who knows if his cardio wasn’t up to par, or if it had something to do with his opponent, but it would be surprising if Barcelos doesn't bounce back in his next fight. He finished behind in significant strikes 77-69, with two knockdowns and zero takedown attempts. For comparison, he finished his previous fight ahead in significant strikes 120-49, while going 2 for 4 on takedowns and he averages 5.39 SSL/min and 1.8 TDL/15 min on 3.2 attempts over the course of his career.
That loss marked the third straight decision Barcelos has been to, after he landed four consecutive finishes in the later rounds before that. His previous two decision wins notably came against tough opponents who entered with records of 13-2 and 13-1 respectively. He’s now 16-2 as a pro, with eight wins by KO, two by submission and six decisions. His only career early loss was a 2014 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission, while his most recent loss was the only time he’s ever had a decision go against him.
Barcelos tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on and his last nine matches have all made it out of the first round, with six of those making it to round three, five ending in decisions and two resulting in 25 minute decisions prior to joining the UFC. All three of his early wins in the UFC notably occurred after the nine minute mark.
Starting his career at 145 lb, Barcelos dropped down to 135 lb following his UFC debut and doesn’t appear to have any plans of ever moving back up. He’s had no issues making weight since the drop and looks great at Bantamweight. A BJJ black belt with a wrestling background, Barcelos is a well rounded fighter who has solid striking, wrestling and submission skills. While he underwhelmed in his last performance, this looks like a prime bounce back spot against a UFC newcomer on short notice.
Victor Henry
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Stepping into his UFC debut on just 10 day’s notice, Henry is coming off an October 2021 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win and has impressively won 9 of his last 10 fights, with his last four wins all ending early. He did lose a decision in his second most recent match, but he also notably has a split-decision win over UFC fighter Kyler Phillips back in 2018. In fairness, Phillips controlled him on the mat for the first round before gassing out and allowing Henry to come back and win the latter two rounds.
Henry has notably never been finished in his 11 year pro career and holds a 21-5 record with six wins by KO, eight submissions and seven decisions. He’s another guy that rarely finishes fights in the first five minutes, with 13 of his last 14 fights making it past the first round, with 10 of those seeing round three and eight going the distance.
Henry has fought all over the world since turning pro in 2010, with the majority of his time spent in California and Japan, he also has fights in Russia and Dubai. Overall he’s decently well rounded with his grappling and striking, but doesn’t appear to be really elite at anything. He’s a relatively patient striker and we’ve seen him get taken down with ease early in fights. At age 34, he’s getting a late start to his UFC career and appears to be more of a journeyman than an up and coming prospect. It will be interesting to see how his durability holds up as he faces the toughest test of his career on Saturday.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” and 34 years old, but Henry will have a 1” reach advantage.
This is a brutally difficult spot for Henry to make his short notice UFC debut as he takes on a high-level opponent in Barcelos, who should be hungry to get back on track after losing his last fight in a much more difficult matchup. Barcelos can win fights both on the feet and the mat, which makes him a really difficult opponent to prepare for, let alone on just over a week’s notice. We expect Barcelos to dictate the pace as he looks to make a statement here and regain his past momentum. While the fact that Henry has never been finished is slightly concerning for Barcelos’ chances of getting him out of there early, this is a massive step up in competition for Henry and we still like Barcelos to get a finish, most likely in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “Barcelos R2 Win” at +1400.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
After losing for the first time in his last 10 fights, Barcelos is in a prime bounce back spot against a short notice replacement making his UFC debut. While he had an off day the last time he stepped inside the Octagon against a really tough opponent, he still nearly landed a second round finish with a pair of knockdowns. He averages a healthy 5.39 SSL/min and 1.8 TDL/15 min, in addition to the fact that three of his five UFC wins have come early. In those finishes he scored 112, 113 and 110 DraftKings points, with two ending in round two and the other occurring in the third round. So he’s proven that he can score well with a finish at any point and he still scored 96 points in his last decision win. While he’s less likely to end up in tournament winning lineups without a finish, it’s also not impossible based on his solid combination of striking and grappling. He looks like a great play in all contest types in a very favorable matchup to score well. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish and a 21% chance it comes in the first round.
Debuts don’t get much tougher than this for Henry as he faces a high-level opponent on just 10 day’s notice. It’s really hard to see him pulling off the upset here and Barcelos has only been finished once in his 18 fight career. Henry didn’t look completely terrible in his pre-UFC tape, and he could be in play for future slates, but even at his low ownership he isn’t really a fighter we're interested in having much if any exposure to in DFS on this card. With that said, flukey things happen all the time in fights [*cough* Nunes], so if you want to sprinkle him into a lineup or two as a leverage play off of a popular favorite we get it, but like Barcelos to win handedly here. The odds imply Henry has a 28% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish and a 6% chance it occurs in round one.
Fight #7
Gerald Meerschaert
15th UFC Fight (8-6)Coming off consecutive wins for the first time since 2017-2018, Meerschaert pulled off a stunning upset against Makhmud Muradov as a massive +500 underdog. Meerschaert showed an improved chin in the match as he absorbed several heavy blows from the dangerous striker in Muradov. Despite being outmatched on the feet, Meerschaert was also able to land some big shots of his own to command at least some level of respect, but it was his sudden durability that was the most surprising after he was knocked out in the first round in two of his previous three fights. Meerschaert was able to drag Muradov to the mat early in round two as he immediately took his back and slid in a Rear-Naked Choke to force a tap. The fight ended with Muradov ahead in significant strikes 40-32 with Meerschaert going 3 for 10 on takedowns in a fight that lasted just under seven minutes.
That was Meerschaert’s second straight submission win in 2021 after he suffered a pair of first round KO losses in 2020. Meerschaert unsurprisingly landed a first round submission against Bartosz Fabinski, who has now been submitted in the first round of three of his last four fights. In his two previous fights, Meerschaert was knocked out in 17 seconds by Khamzat Chimaev and in 74 seconds by Ian Heinisch. Meerschaert’s last five fights have now all ended early after he started 2020 with a third round submission win over Deron Winn.
Meerschaert started off strong in the UFC, as he joined the organization in 2016 and won four of his first five fights. All five of those fights ended in the first two rounds, with Meerschaert landing a pair of first round submission wins in his first two fights, followed by a R2 KO loss against Thiago Santos. Meerschaert then landed a second round KO of his own, followed up by a R2 submission win. That’s when things began to go sideways.
Meerschaert was submitted by Jack Hermansson in the first round of a 2018 match, before losing a decision to Kevin Holland in his next fight. He rebounded with a R3 Guillotine Choke Submission win over Trevin Giles in 2019, but then lost a decision to Eryk Anders later that year. After losing two of his next three after that, Meerschaert had gone just 2-5 from 2018-2020 before he recently bounced back with a pair of submission wins to get him into the comeback fighter of the year conversation in 2021.
No one has taken Meerschaert down more than once in the UFC, but 9 of his 14 opponents have achieved that number. Meerschaert fought at 170 lb early in his pro career, but transitioned to 185 lb in 2013-2014, where he’s essentially stayed since, although he did venture up to 205 lb once in 2016.
Of Meerschaert’s 33 career wins, 25 have come by submission, while six have ended in KOs, and amazingly only two have come by decision. His most recent decision win was amazingly all the way back in 2013. Looking at his 14 career losses, three have come by KO, eight have been by submission, and three have gone the distance. Insanely, only five of his 47 career fights (10.6%) have made it to the judges and only two of his 14 matches in the UFC (14.3%). Both of his UFC decisions were split. Six of his UFC fights have ended in the first round (3-3), four have ended in round two (3-1), two have ended in round three (2-0) and two have gone the distance (0-2). He’s often regarded as somewhat of a slow starter and he’s notably gone 5-1 in the UFC in fights that have ended in the later rounds.
Dustin Stoltzfus
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Starting off his UFC career with a pair of losses against two grapplers, Stoltzfus has yet to do anything to impress us at the UFC level. His most recent loss came in a slow-paced standup battle against world class, albeit one-dimensional grappler Rodolfo Vieira, who carries the dubious honors of man who gasses the hardest. After seeing Vieira completely gas out early in his previous fight, it seemed like Stoltzfus was simply waiting for Vieira to collapse from exhaustion in their fight, but forgot he has actually had to make Vieira work for that to happen. Vieira was able to extend his cardio due to the lack of activity and took Stoltzfus’ back early in the third round and quickly submitted him.
In his previous fight, Stoltzfus lost a low-volume decision in his November 2020 UFC debut against Kyle Daukaus. That was just Stoltzfus’ second career defeat at the time, both by decision, and he came into the UFC on a 10 fight winning streak. Although, after seeing him in his first two UFC fights, you have to wonder about the level of competition he had been facing.
Stoltzfus was unimpressive in the decision loss to Daukaus and was outlanded 64-32 in significant strikes and 113-95 in total strikes. He also went 0 for 7 on takedowns, while Daukaus went 2 for 7 with nearly nine minutes of control time to Stoltzfus’ two minutes. The majority of the fight was spent in the clinch, but Stoltzfus didn’t look great in space or on the ground when the fight went there. Daukaus easily won a unanimous decision as he took every round and was even awarded a 10-8 round by one judge. Meanwhile Stoltzfus didn’t do anything to impress us.
Stoltzfus won his previous fight from a freak elbow injury TKO on DWCS in August 2020 when his opponent's elbow dislocated as Stoltzfus slammed him on the mat. It seemed like a pretty close fight before the injury, so it’s hard to take too much away from the outcome. It was enough, however, to land Stoltzfus a spot in the UFC.
Now 13-3 as a pro, Stoltzfus has two wins by KO, five by submission, five by decision and one by DQ. Two of his three losses have gone the distance, while he was submitted in the third round most recently.
Fight Prediction:
Meerschaert will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
The only things Stoltzfus has going for him here are that after starting 0-2 in the UFC he should be desperate as he fights for his job and he’s going against an opponent who’s been finished in 11 of his 14 career losses. Meerschaert is also coming off a massive upset, so it’s always possible this is a let down spot if he overlooks Stoltzfus. With all that said, we’ve been so unimpressed with Stoltzfus so far in the UFC that it’s impossible to back him to win this fight and Meerschaert looks like the far superior grappler. We like Meerschaert to land another later round submission win as he simply wears down Stoltzfus as the fight goes on before locking up a Rear-Naked Choke.
Our favorite bet here is “Meerschaert R2 Submission” at +850.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
With all eight of his UFC victories coming early, as well as four of his six UFC losses, Meerschaert’s fights generally produce a high score in DFS for whoever wins. Here are his DraftKings scores in his last six wins beginning with the most recent: 101, 102, 95, 77 and 124. So the only bust was in a close, ultra low-volume back and forth R3 submission victory, which seems somewhat flukey, although that shows how he fails even with a finish. It actually wouldn’t be shocking to see a similar result here. While Meerschaert generally scores well when he wins, he rarely puts up slate-breaking numbers, so at his 9K DraftKings price tag it’s harder to get excited about playing him as he may still struggle to outscore some of the other top priced options even if he does get a finish. And Stoltzfus is a slow-paced grappler who generally makes fights gross and has only been finished once in his career, but that did notably come by R3 submission in his most recent fight. Meerschaert’s last two third round submission wins scored just 95 and 77 DraftKings points, which at his price likely wouldn’t be enough to end up in winning lineups. So you likely need a finish in the first two rounds for him to be useful. The odds imply Meerschaert has a 68% chance to win, a 45% chance to get a finish and a 22% chance it comes in the first round.
Stoltzfus has given us no reason to get excited about him in his first two UFC fights and while we’re generally looking to target fighters going up against Meerschaert, we get more excited about playing strikers in that situation. Stoltzfus is much more of a grappler and an unexceptional one at that. After losing his first two UFC fights, he should be desperate for a win, which could force him to push the pace more, but we still don’t love his chances to get a win. Here are the DraftKings scores of Meerschaert’s OPPONENTS in his last five losses beginning with the most recent: 127, 109, 56, 73 and 121. The only times his opponents have failed to score well is when fights end in decisions, which only 10.6% of his career fights have. Meerschaert is a dangerous grappler, but has shown a dubious chin at times. However, Stoltzfus isn’t much of a knockout threat and only has two career KO/TKO wins, with one of those resulting from a freak elbow injury, so he’s less likely than most to actually test Meerschaert’s chin. And while Meerschaert has been submitted eight times in his career, only one of those losses has occurred since January 2013, which came against a dangerous grappler in Jack Hermansson. It always makes sense to have some exposure to both sides whenever Meerschaert fights simply because close to 90% of his fights end early, but this is the rare occasion where it’s not a match we’re interested in targeting heavily. The odds imply Stoltzfus has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #6
Cub Swanson
21st UFC Fight (12-8)Coming off just the second KO/TKO loss of his 39 pro fight career, and first since a 2009 8 second R1 TKO loss to Jose Aldo, Swanson most recently got finished in just 63 seconds by Giga Chikadze with a violent liver kick. The fight ended so abruptly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, but Chikadze led in significant strikes 12-4 before ending things.
While it’s rare to see Swanson get finished with strikes, he has been submitted in four of his last seven losses and looks far more prone to getting choked out than knocked out. He’s 27-12 as a pro, with 12 wins by KO, four by submission and 11 decisions. He’s only been knocked out twice, but has been submitted seven times and has lost three decisions.
Just prior to suffering his first TKO loss since 2009, Swanson landed his first KO win since 2013. Swanson notably tore his ACL and meniscus in a 2019 grappling match, which kept him out of action for 14 months, before stepping back inside the Octagon against Daniel Pineda in his second most recent fight. Pineda has a history of finishing fights early or getting finished himself, and that trend continued against Swanson, who had him hurt in the first round before knocking him out in the second. Despite being a BJJ black belt, Swanson hasn’t submitted anybody since 2009, and prior to the KO win over Pineda, his previous six wins all went the distance.
We saw a ton of significant strikes landed in each of Swanson’s last two decisions (135-86 and 129-134) and he was on pace to land 100 again in the win over Pineda. So despite being 38 years old, Swanson’s striking output has still been solid. In his last fight, Swanson outlanded Pineda 46-21 in significant strikes in less than seven minutes of action before getting the R2 KO stoppage. In Swanson’s 2019 loss to Burgos, he was outlanded 134-129 in significant strikes. In his next fight after that, Swanson won the striking battle 135-86 against a grappler in Kron Gracie. Despite being known as a grappler, Gracie was forced into a stand up battle and went 0 for 2 on his takedown attempts.
Overall, Swanson is an aging high-volume striker who is 2-5 in his last seven fights. However, he’s faced pretty tough competition over that period and has generally done well when not going against top-level guys. Now he gets another aging veteran, so this doesn’t look like an overwhelmingly difficult matchup for him.
Darren Elkins
25th UFC Fight (16-8)Looking to keep his momentum going following a pair of early wins, the 37-year-old Elkins continues to be a tough guy to put away with just one early loss since 2013, which occurred in a 2018 R3 TKO against Ricardo Lamas. Elkins’ most recent win came against submission specialist Darrick Minner. As he always does, Minner came out aggressively hunting for a submission, but Elkins did a great job of defending everything coming his way and was able to turn the tables in round two as he got on top of an exhausted Minner and put him away with relentless ground and pound. The fight ended with Elkins ahead just 20-19 in significant strikes, but 137-36 in total strikes. Minner landed both of his takedown attempts, while Elkins went 1 for 2. Minner also finished with three official submission attempts and both fighters had two reversals and multiple minutes of control time.
Just prior to that, Elkins snapped a four fight losing streak with a R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win against Luiz Eduardo Garagorri, who’s now 1-2 in the UFC and has been submitted in his last two fights. Elkins landed seven takedowns on a ridiculous 21 attempts in that match while accruing over seven and a half minutes of control time. While Garagorri actually led in significant strikes 36-32, Elkins led in total strikes 120-48 before getting the late finish.
Elkins is 26-9 as a pro with nine wins by KO, five by submission and 12 decision victories. He’s only been submitted once in his career, but he does have three KO/TKO losses to go along with five decision defeats. His last 16 fights have all made it out of the first round, with all but two of those seeing round three and 11 going the distance. Elkins’ last fight to end in the first round was a 2013 KO loss to Chad Mendes.
With a wrestling background, Elkins averages 2.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but has been somewhat sporadic with his takedown numbers. With that said, he’s landed five or more in four of his last eight wins. He averages 8.1 attempts per 15 minutes, but has just a 33% takedown accuracy and lands just 2.7 of those attempts on average.
Fight Prediction:
Elkins will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Elkins’ last six losses have all made it to the third round, with five going the distance. It’s been eight years since anyone finished him before the third round and Swanson similarly only has one early win in the last eight years. So it’s unlikely we see Swanson finish Elkins early, which should give Elkins plenty of time to try and get this fight to the ground and potentially hunt for a submission. Swanson has a middle of the road 60% career takedown defense, but that has actually risen to 80% in his last 10 fights, where he’s only been taken down 8 times on 40 attempts. He was also notably able to remain on his feet against Kron Gracie as he forced Gracie to chase him around the Octagon, while landing a ton of strikes as he retreated. A similar approach would make sense against a zombie like Elkins. We could also see this playing out similarly to the Elkins/Landwehr brawl, where Elkins landed one takedown in the first round but finished just 1 for 13 on his attempts. If Swanson can remain on his feet, we like him to win a high-volume decision, but if Elkins can get the fight to the ground he has a decent chance to finish things with a submission. We like Swanson to keep things standing for the most part and outland his way to a decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Swanson Wins by Decision” at +165.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
The most likely outcome in this fight is that Swanson wins a high-volume decision and scores around 85-95 DraftKings points, which at his steep price tag will likely be left on the outside looking in when it comes to tournament winning lineups. He has just one early win in the last eight years, which did notably occur in his second most recent fight, but that was also in a great matchup. Now he faces a really durable Darren Elkins who has just one early loss since 2013 and the odds for Swanson to get a finish are much lower. However, if Swanson can somehow get Elkins out of there, he should put up a big score, and he totalled 117 DraftKings points in his recent finish of Pineda. He’s also shown a solid floor, with scores of 87, 96 and 70 in his last three three-round decision wins and 136 points in a five round decision victory, which is equivalent to 94 points had the fight gone just three rounds. Swanson is somewhat of an interesting leverage play off of the other expensive options and his high price tag should keep his ownership low. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish and a 15% chance it comes in the first round.
Elkins is coming off a pair of slate-breaking scores with later round finishes, which should drive up his ownership as he projects to be one of the most popular underdogs on the slate. Elkins’ best chance to win will be to get the fight to the ground and hunt for submissions, so it’s notable that Swason has only been taken down 8 times on 40 attempts in his last 10 fights and Elkins has just a 33% career takedown accuracy. Working in Elkins’ favor, Swanson has been submitted in four of his last seven losses, although those losses came against really tough opponents in Renato Carneiro, Brian Ortega, Max Holloway and pre-washed up Frankie Edgar. If Elkins can’t get this fight to the mat, then Swanson should comfortably win a striking battle and likely point his way to a decision. Whoever wins this fight has a solid scoring floor and a high ceiling that they’re less likely to hit. So it looks like a fight you want to target to some extent in DFS. The odds imply Elkins has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #5
Mateusz Gamrot
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Continuing to outdo himself everytime he steps inside the Octagon, Gamrot recently submitted Jeremy Stephens just 65 seconds into the first round with a Kimura after taking Stephens down almost immediately in the fight. The hyper-efficient win ended with Gamrot ahead 1-0 in significant strikes, with one takedown, one submission attempt and 46 seconds of control time. For context, Stephens has gone 0-5 plus a No Contest in his last six fights.
In his previous fight, Gamrot landed a second round KO against Scott Holtzman, which was just the second time Holtzman has been finished in 19 pro fights, although they’ve now come in his last two matches. Gamrot controlled that entire fight as he led in significant strikes 39-10, landed a knockdown, two takedowns and 50 seconds of control time before finishing the fight early in round two with an impressive knockout.
Looking back one fight further to Gamrot’s UFC debut, he suffered a split-decision loss against a tough Guram Kutateladze, who was also making his debut. Gamrot actually led in significant strikes 52-37, total strikes 69-43, takedowns 5-0, and control time 3:29-0:01, and even his opponent said Gamrot won following the fight, but two of the three judges didn’t see it that way. Gamrot notably shot for 16 takedowns in the match, but only landed five of them. Amazingly, that was Gamrot’s third fight in four months and he was coming off a five-round decision title fight win just a month and a half earlier.
A former KSW Lightweight and Featherweight Champion, Gamrot came into the UFC 17-0 with a ton of experience under his belt and has since extended his record to 19-1. He generally tends to wear on his opponents and prior to his recent first round submission win he had been past the first round in 13 straight fights. Of his 19 career wins, eight have gone the distance, six have ended in KOs and five have finished with submissions. He also has one No Contest on his record from an accidental eye poke.
Gamrot has gone 8 for 23 (34%) on his takedown attempts so far in the UFC and relentlessly looks to grab his opponents ankles to take them to the mat. He’ll now face an opponent who’s been taken down nine times in his last five rounds of action.
Diego Ferreira
13th UFC Fight (8-4)Probably wishing he had never even booked his last fight, Ferreira notably missed weight by a massive 4.5 lb and then proceeded to get knocked out late in the second round by Gregor Gillespie, who was coming off a year and a half layoff following the first loss/KO of his career after Kevin Lee tried to orphan his children. The first round played out at a frantic pace as the two scrambled on the mat with Ferreira constantly looking for defensive submissions after getting taken down by Gillespie three times in the opening five minutes. Ferreira finished the round on top landing elbows and Gillespie looked so exhausted following the round they had the doctor check him out to see if he could even continue. While Gillespie found a second wind in the second round, it was Ferreira who looked gassed midway through round two and Gillespie was able to take advantage of that and finish him with ground and pound in the closing seconds of the round. Gillespie finished ahead in significant strikes 45-31 and in total strikes 53-37, while also landing 4 of his 8 takedown attempts with over five minutes of control time and stuffing both of Ferreira’s attempts.
Just prior to that loss, Ferreira lost a decision to Beneil Dariush, which is the second time Dariush has defeated Ferreira in a decision after previously beating him back in 2014. Dariush was able to control Ferreira for the majority of the fight as he landed five takedowns on 15 attempts with seven and a half minutes of control time, while Ferreira missed on his only attempt. Darsiush also finished slightly ahead in significant strikes 62-54, but the majority of the fight was simply spent with Dariush controlling Ferreira. Hilariously, one of the judges ruled Ferreira won the fight, so Dariush ended up winning by split-decision.
Prior to the pair of losses, Ferreira had won six in a row, with three decisions and three finishes in the first two rounds. His most recent win was a 2020 R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission against Anthony Pettis. Now holding a 17-4 pro record, Ferreira has three wins by KO, seven by submission and seven decisions. Outside of his two decision losses to Dariush and his recent R2 TKO loss to Gregor Gillespie, the only other loss of Ferreira’s career was a 2015 R1 KO against Dustin Poirier. So all four of his losses have come at the hands of top-level competition. All 10 of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with four round one wins and six in round two.
A 3rd degree BJJ black belt, Ferreira is very dangerous on the ground, both in top position and off his back, and he will constantly hunt for submissions, although it’s been nine years since he landed anything other than a Rear-Naked Choke. It will be important to monitor Ferreira closely at weigh-ins after he missed weight by such a large amount in his last fight.
UPDATE: Ferreira was the last fighter to weigh in but was able to make the mark with the help of the shame box. With that said, he definitely did not look great on the scales.
Fight Prediction:
Gamrot will have a 1” height advantage, but Ferreira will have a 4” reach advantage. Gamrot is also notably 5 years younger than the 36-year-old Ferreira.
This sets up as an interesting grappling battle between a pair of BJJ black belts. Gamrot is far more offensive with his wrestling as he’s constantly hunting for takedowns, while Ferreira is somewhat more of a defensive and opportunistic submission threat as he’s failed to land a takedown in four of his last five fights and only has a total of six takedowns in 12 UFC fights. That low number is also partially due to the fact that Ferreira has just a 24% takedown accuracy. We’ve yet to see Gamrot get taken down in the UFC, and while Ferreira owns a 66% career takedown defense, he’s been grounded nine times in his last two fights, albeit against top level grapplers in Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie. It’s always possible that the grappling skills of these two cancel each other out and we see more of a striking battle than expected and both guys are very capable on the feet as well. Ferreira is likely going somewhat overlooked after dropping two straight fights, but he’s still the #12 ranked Lightweight and is still extremely dangerous even at age 36. We do question his cardio after he gassed out midway through the second round the last time we saw him, although it’s possible the weight miss had something to do with that. Still, when you combine the potential cardio concerns with how good Gamrot has looked so far in the UFC, we like Gamrot to win this one either in the later rounds or by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R2” at +500.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Gamrot has been a really solid DFS contributor so far in his three UFC fights, with DraftKings scores of 97 and 108 in his recent two finishes and 55 in a questionable split-decision loss in his UFC debut that would have been good for 85 had the decision gone his way. He averages the second most takedowns landed on the slate at 5.4/15 min, despite owning just a 34% takedown accuracy as he averages a slate leading 15.7 attempts/15 min. That crazy high number of attempts shows the potential for a massive slate-breaking performance at some point in his near future, and while his opponent Diego Ferreira is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt and a dangerous submission threat, he’s been taken down nine times on 23 attempts in his last five rounds of action. Ferreira is also 36 years old, coming off a pair of losses and gassed out in the second round of his last fight after missing weight by 4.5 lb. So while Ferreira is still a dangerous high-level opponent, he does have some cracks forming in his foundation. Gamrot has an impressive 19-1 pro record and could easily be 20-0 if he hadn’t lost the split-decision in his UFC debut. He’s proven himself to be dangerous both on the feet and the mat and looks like a solid play in all contest types. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Ferreira has scored well when he’s landed an early finish, which he’s done in five of his eight UFC wins, but has never scored well in a decision. He’s landed a total of 10 finishes in his entire career, and all of those have occurred in the first two rounds. So if he can be the first fighter to ever finish Gamrot early, it’s hard to see him not ending up in winning lineups as his recent finishes have scored 106, 110, and 112 DraftKings points. Gamrot’s constant takedown attempts should give Ferreira plenty of opportunities to look for submissions, although Gamrot is notably also a BJJ black belt and has never been finished in 20 pro fights. So while this looks like a tough matchup for Ferreira, as the odds suggest, at his cheaper price tag it makes sense to have some exposure in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Ricky Simon
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Extending his winning streak to three, Simon defeated Brian Kelleher in yet another grappling-heavy decision. While both guys typically fight at 135 lb, that fight took place at 145 lb after Simon had competed at 135 lb just a month prior. Simon landed six of his nine takedown attempts with over eight minutes of control time as he easily won a unanimous 30-27 decision. He also outlanded Kelleher 45-19 in significant strikes and 72-25 in total strikes as Kelleher never had an answer for anything Simon was doing. Kelleher is known for his Guillotine Choke, but Simon used great technique to land takedowns while never putting himself at risk for the choke.
That marked the fourth straight fight that Simon has landed at least six takedowns, with three of his last four and five of his last seven fights going the distance. Simon has now won 11 of his last 13 matches, with the two losses over that stretch coming against Rob Font in a 2019 decision and Urijah Faber in a 2019 R1 TKO. Holding an 18-3 pro record, that’s the only time Simon has lost by KO/TKO, but he was also submitted once all the way back in 2016 by UFC fighter Anderson dos Santos, prior to the two guys joining the UFC. Of his 18 wins, Simon has five KOs, three submissions and 10 decisions. All five of his KO wins have occurred in the first round, but four of those notably came in his first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-2, 0-0, 3-12 and 0-2. His only other career KO came in 2017, still prior to joining the UFC, against another questionable opponent who entered with a 14-24 record. Three of his last four finishes have come by submission.
Overall Simon has gone 10-1 with the judges, although three of those decisions were notably split. Nine of Simon’s last 11 fights have made it out of the first round, with eight seeing round three and seven going the distance. He hasn’t knocked anyone out since early 2018, prior to joining the UFC, and his only two submission wins in those 11 fights were a 2021 R2 Arm-Triangle Choke against a questionable late-replacement UFC newcomer and a strange post-R3 stoppage in his UFC debut against Merab Dvalishvili. So in general he’s just looking to chain wrestle guys to death as he grinds out decisions, but he’ll occasionally mix in a late finish.
Simon went off for 14 takedowns in a 2017 DWCS decision win, but it still wasn’t enough to immediately land him in the UFC. He went on to fight twice after that in the LFA, with a five-round decision win followed by a R1 KO victory. It was at that point the UFC brought him on board and gave him a tough challenge in his debut against Merab Dvalishvili. Simon officially submitted Dvalishvili at the end of the third round, but there was never a tap, the horn sounded and Dvalishvili got up shortly after. It was a strange scene.
Simon followed that up with back-to-back decision wins against incredibly tough opponents in Montel Jackson and Rani Yahya. We feel like we can’t reiterate this enough. Simon relies on his grappling to win fights and amazingly started off 3-0 in the UFC against three of the tougher grapplers in the division in Merab Dvalishvili, Montel Jackson, Rani Yahya. Since losing to Simon, those three guys have combined to go 14-1-1. The UFC absolutely threw Simon into a grappling gauntlet from hell in his first three UFC fights and he came out unscathed. However, after that insane start to his UFC career he then dropped two straight against Faber and Font before bouncing back with three straight wins most recently.
Simon has landed 39 takedowns on 78 attempts since joining the UFC and if we include his DWCS fights (since they do in his UFC calculate career takedown accuracy) those numbers jump to 56 takedowns landed on 97 attempts in those nine fights. He’s one of only two people to ever get Dvalishvili down and the only person to ground him more than once. Simon leads the slate in takedowns landed at 6.9/15 min on an average of 12.8 attempts. For as many attempts as he averages, he still has a solid 54% takedown accuracy, but now he goes up against an opponent with a solid 80% defense.
Raphael Assuncao
17th UFC Fight (11-5)Now 39 years old and 18 months removed from a violent R2 KO loss against Cody Garbrandt, Assuncao enters this fight on a three fight skid and it’s looking like his time is about up in the UFC. He got knocked out in the first round of his 2011 UFC debut up at 145 lb, but then dropped down to 135 lb after that fight and has since gone 11-4 at his new weight class. However, after winning 11 of his first 12 UFC fights at 135 lb with the only loss coming in a 2016 decision against T.J. Dillashaw, Assuncao was submitted in the first round by Marlon Moraes in 2019 and then lost a decision to Cory Sandhagen the same year, before suffering just his second career KO loss in his most recent fight.
Garbrandt did a good job of beating up the lead leg of Assuncao early in the match. He then caught Assuncao with a right cross with just over a minute left in the second round that dropped Assuncao to a knee, at which point Garbrandt appeared to turn up the intensity. Just a second before the round ended, Assuncao had Garbrandt pushed up against the cage and with a Street Fighter like windup, Garbrandt ducked down and pulled a fireball right hand out from behind his knee that landed perfectly to the chin of Assuncao, face planting him to the mat as the horn sounded. The walk off KO was impressive, but it did notably come in an ultra low-volume fight where Garbrandt narrowly led in significant strikes 19-17 after nine minutes and 59 seconds of action. Neither fighter attempted a takedown and we saw just three seconds of control time, so the low volume had nothing to do with any grappling as the fight was a tactical feeling out process on the feet. The majority of the strikes landed were leg kicks with Assuncao leading 11-10 in that category. Garbrandt finished ahead just 9-6 on significant strikes to the body and head.
Now 27-8 as a pro, Assuncao has four wins by KO, 10 by submission and 13 decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted twice and has lost four decisions. Ten of his 16 UFC fights have gone the distance, while he’s been finished in three and landed finishes in three more. However, he only has one early win since 2013 and it was a R3 KO against an opponent in Matthew Lopez who went 2-4 in the UFC with three early losses. On the flipside, he’s been finished in the first two rounds in two of his last three fights/losses.
A BJJ black belt, Assuncao is a slow paced counter puncher and it’s rare to see much action in his fights as he averages just 3.26 SSL/min and 2.33 SSA/min in his career. In his last eight UFC bouts, five of which went the distance, Assuncao has failed to land more than 54 significant strikes in a fight and hasn’t absorbed more than 64. During that same time period, he’s also only been taken down twice on 15 attempts (13%), which is even better than his already rock-solid 80% career takedown defense. And he’s only been taken down six times on 33 attempts in his total 16 UFC fight UFC career, but that will surely be tested in this next match. He’s also only landed six takedowns in his last eight fights and four of those came against Cory Sandhagen. While Assuncao hasn’t been taken down in his last four fights, he’s only had to defend a single attempt over that stretch, so we really haven’t seen him get tested lately. Just keep in mind he’s only been taken down once in the last five years on 10 attempts, so the potential for a really solid takedown defense is there.
Fight Prediction:
Simon will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage. He’s also 10 years younger than the 39-year-old Assuncao.
This is sort of an awkward matchup between a fighter in Simon who relies on landing tons of takedowns and Assuncao, who almost never gets taken down. At the same time, Assuncao is 39 years old, on a three fight losing streak and hasn’t fought in 18 months following a violent knockout, so he really doesn’t have much going for him other than his historically solid 80% takedown defense. Simon notably landed six takedowns on nine attempts in his most recent fight against Brian Kelleher, who entered the match with a 72% takedown defense, which has since dropped to 59% after the Simon fight. So you could rightfully argue that Simon has found success landing takedowns against opponents with good defenses in the past, but regardless, this isn’t a favorable matchup for Simon to land a ton of takedowns. He’s so relentless with his attempts we would still be surprised if he didn’t find at least some success, but he may have a tougher time of hitting his 6.9 average. While Simon generally isn’t much of a knockout threat, with only one KO win since 2015, which occurred three and a half years ago prior to joining the UFC, Assuncao’s chin looks to be rapidly fading and he’s been knocked down twice in his last three fights. So there’s always a chance that Simon could land a KO if Assuncao forces this into more of a striking battle by successfully defending takedowns. With that said, that’s more of a bet against Assuncao’s chin then on Simon’s knockout power and the chances are still relatively low. It’s more likely that Simon wins a lower volume decision here and potentially sends Assuncao off into retirement.
Our favorite bet here is “Simon Wins by Decision” at +125.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Simon is generally a major DFS contributor based on his chain wrestling approach to fighting that results in huge takedown numbers. He’s scored at least 98 DraftKings points in his last three fights and broke the slate in his second most recent appearance with a 131 point explosion. That notably came against a late replacement UFC newcomer in essentially a best case scenario spot, so context is always important. Now he faces a long time UFC veteran, who’s a BJJ black belt with an 80% takedown defense. Assuncao has only been taken down six times in 16 UFC fights and just once in his last 10 fights. And no one has ever gotten him down more than twice even going back 21 fights to his WEC days. With that said, Assuncao is also 39 years old, on a three fight losing streak and coming off an 18 month layoff following a violent R2 KO loss. It’s always tough to predict how fighters on a downward decline will fare, especially after long layoffs, which gives us more reason to be optimistic in Simon’s ceiling, while still being uncertain of his floor in this tougher than normal matchup when it comes to scoring well from takedowns. Assuncao’s pace down style and solid takedown defense will leave Simon more reliant on landing a finish than normal and Simon notably has just one knockout win in his last 17 fights, which occurred in March 2018. He does have two submission wins since then, but only one since his UFC debut, which came against a debuting opponent with no ground game, which is stark comparison to the UFC veteran BJJ black belt in Assuncao who has been submitted just once in his last 18 fights. The most likely outcome here is that Simon wins a lower volume decision and while we expect him to land a few takedowns, he likely finishes below his career average. In that scenario we don’t see him returning value, so overall it appears more likely than not he gets left out of winning tournament lineups. Just keep in mind that Assuncao’s age and recent layoff increase the uncertainty surrounding his current status and it’s always possible he’s gone off the cliff at this stage in his career. The odds imply Simon has a 72% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish and a 15% chance it comes in the first round.
Assuncao is never one to score well as he offers anemic striking numbers and has just one early win in the last eight years, which even that came in the third round and scored just 74 DraftKings points. Even at his cheap price tag, we don’t see him returning value here without a finish in the first two rounds, which appears highly unlikely. We don’t have any interest in playing Assuncao, regardless of his low price and ownership, but if he does somehow pull off the upset he could serve as a massive leverage play. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Amanda Lemos
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming in on a four fight winning streak and off back-to-back R1 KO wins, Lemos easily finished a pair of grapplers in Livinha Souza and Montserrat Ruiz, both of whom had never been put away early before in their respective careers. Lemos has now faced four straight grapplers at 115 lb since losing her 2017 UFC debut in a R2 TKO against Leslie Smith up at 135 lb.
Lemos has looked insanely powerful and sharp with her hands and has landed five knockdowns in her last three fights. She now ranks number three all time in the UFC (male or female) in average knockdowns landed at 1.95 per 15 minutes. She’s notably the only female in the top 10 and it’s insanely coming in the lightest of all weight classes, the 115 lb division.
Lemos’ most recent win took just 35 seconds as she finished Montserrat Ruiz with just seven strikes landed as she caught her with a series of crisp punches. Just prior to that Lemos landed another first round TKO win that included a pair of knockdowns against Livinha Souza.
Lemos has only been past the first round in four of her 12 pro fights and has only been to two decisions and just one in almost the last six years. That came in her third most recent fight against another grappler in Mizuki Inoue, who has also never been finished in her career. Inoue was able to tie Lemos up for periods of time, winning the control time battle 6:53-2:22. However, Lemos led in significant striking 83-57 and in takedowns 2-0 and won a unanimous 30-27 decision.
Lemos suffered her first and only career loss in her UFC debut against a larger brawler in Leslie Smith, who got the TKO stoppage against what appeared to be an exhausted Lemos in the second round. A few months after the loss, Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension after she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon.
After competing at 135 lb for the first eight fights of her career, Lemos dropped all the way down to 115 lb following her suspension. It’s not surprising that she moved down in weight, as she looked undersized for the 135 lb division, it’s just rare to see a fighter drop two weight classes all at once. With that said, Lemos looks strong in her first fight at 115 lb and bounced back from the debut loss with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke submission of Miranda Granger, which is the only time Granger has been finished in her nine pro fights.
Lemos now holds a 10-1-1 pro record with seven wins by KO, two by submission and just one decision. Her only career loss was the R2 TKO against Smith at 135 lb. She also fought to a draw back in 2016 when she was still competing at 135 lb. Lemos has notably only been past the first round four times in her career, which was in a 2020 R3 Decision win, a R2 TKO loss, a 2016 early R3 KO win, and a 2016 draw. So she’s 2-1-1 in fights that have lasted longer than five minutes, but has finished 8 of her 12 career opponents in the first round. While she’s primarily a striker, she will look to lock up submissions on the mat, although she’s not an overwhelming submission threat and could stand to improve her technique.
Now 34 years old, Lemos got a late start in MMA as she didn’t turn pro until 2014 when she was already 27 years old. She won her first five fights in the first round with four KOs and a Guillotine Choke. However, those wins came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 3-4, 0-0, 0-0, and 0-0. She then fought to a draw in her 6th pro fight, but they ran it back and Lemos won by knockout in the third round of the rematch. Following that win, Lemos joined the UFC in 2017. After facing four straight grapplers, Lemos will now face a striker for the first time since dropping down to 115 lb.
Angela Hill
19th UFC Fight (8-10)After losing a recent decision to Tecia Torres, Hill has now dropped three of her last four fights, with her last five matches all going the distance. Two of her last three losses have notably ended in split decisions. Hill absorbed the most significant strikes of any fight in her career in her most recent loss to Torres, as she was outlanded 144-96 in significant strikes and 166-99 in total strikes. Hill did land a pair of takedowns on seven attempts with nearly two minutes of control time, while Torres went 1 for 6 on her attempts. Torres was able to outland Hill in every round of the fight and cruise to a unanimous decision win.
Just prior to that, Hill notched her second career decision win over Ashley Yoder as she won a unanimous 30-27 decision and outlanded Yoder 77-34 in significant strikes and 97-53 in total strikes. Hill also went 1 for 3 on takedowns with nearly four minutes of control time, while stuffing 4 of Yoder’s 6 attempts, and Hill has talked about trying to improve her grappling.
In her two fights before that, Hill lost a pair of split-decisions to Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson in fights that easily could have gone her way with the judges. It’s rare for Hill to see a fight end early, as 14 of her 18 UFC fights have gone the distance, with the four exceptions being a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss to Rose Namajunas, a 2019 R1 Armbar Submission loss to Randa Markos, a 2019 R3 doctor stoppage TKO win against Ariane Carnelossi and a 2020 R2 TKO win over Hannah Cifers. So both of her early UFC losses have ended in first round submissions and both of her UFC early wins have come from later round TKOs—one from a flukey doctor stoppage and the other against a terrible opponent who went 2-5 in the UFC with all five losses ending in the first two rounds.
Hill originally joined the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in just her second pro fight. However, after winning a decision in her 2014 debut she lost back-to-back fights against Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas and was then released by the UFC following her 2015 submission loss. She then went on to win four fights in a row in Invicta, including a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds. At that point, she was re-signed by the UFC in 2017, where she fought to five straight decisions upon her return, alternating losses and wins. Hill then suffered what is just her second early loss in her career with another R1 submission, this time from an Armbar against Randa Markos.
Now 13-10 as a pro, five of Hill’s 13 wins have come by KO/TKO, while eight have been by decision. Only one of her five KO victories occurred in the first round and that was back in 2016 with Invicta. Three of her knockouts have come in the second. Three of her five early wins notably occurred in her first six pro fights and she only has two finishes in her last 17 matches. On the other side of things, she’s never been knocked out, but she has been submitted twice. She’s now 8-8 in decisions in her career and 1-3 in split decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Lemos will have a 1” height and reach advantage and is two years younger than the 36-year-old Hill.
This sets up as an exciting brawl between two high-volume strikers. Lemos averages 6.32 SSL/min (4th highest on the slate) and 5.38 SSA/min (also 4th highest on the slate), while Hill averages 5.71 SSL/min (5th highest on the slate) and 5.25 SSA/min (also 5th highest on the slate). The power advantage is clearly in Lemos favor, so Hill will need to rely on her experience, durability and cardio if she wants to have a chance to win this fight. We notably saw Lemos gas out in the second round of her 2017 UFC debut, but that also took place four and a half years ago and up at 135 lb against a much larger fighter. Since then we have seen Lemos go three rounds, although it was in a fight with over nine minutes of control time, mostly along the fence. So there’s some cause for concern with Lemos’ cardio, but also reason to think it has improved since she dropped down to 115 lb. Hill, on the other hand, has made a career out of fighting to decisions, so we expect her to look like the fresher fighter if this makes it to the back half. Outside of Lemos gassing out or Hill slicing her open with an elbow and forcing another doctor stoppage, it’s really hard to see Hill winning this fight as Lemos has looked so dangerous with her striking. With that said, Lemos has faced four straight grapplers, so Hill provides a new test for her and with so little experience fighting beyond the first round (4 times in 12 fights) we haven’t seen how Lemos will look deep into a pure striking battle. What we do know is that Lemos has looked like a potential title contender in her recent fights, while Hill is nothing more than a veteran gatekeeper. We don’t see Hill going away nearly as easily as Lemos’ last two opponents, but there’s still a chance Lemos hands Hill her first career KO loss or locks up a submission on the mat. However, the more likely scenario is that Hill survives to see her 17th career decision and Lemos walks away with the second decision win of her career.
We’re fine passing on this fight and not biting on the perceived value with Hill’s side of things, but the one bet always worth considering when Lemos is fighting is “Lemos R1 Win” at +500.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Lemos is coming off back-to-back slate breaking performances. She was just 10% owned on DraftKings as a -225 favorite on a 15-fight slate in the first of those and just 23% owned as a -550 favorite on just a 10-fight slate most recently. After failing to truly realize her upside on either of those cards, we expect the field to finally catch up here and Lemos should be more highly owned on Saturday. While Hill has never been knocked out, all three of Lemos’ first round finishes in the UFC also came against opponents who had never been finished before in their respective careers. With that said, Hill has far more UFC experience than those previous three opponents combined and she has proven her durability in the past against dangerous strikers like Jessica Andrade. However, Hill is also getting up there in age and hasn’t gone against a really powerful striker since she fought Ariane Carnelossi over two years ago, so it’s been a while since her chin was truly tested. If anyone can knock Hill out, it might be Lemos, and Hill has been vulnerable to getting submitted in the past as well. Still, the more likely scenario is for this fight to go the distance and end in a high-volume brawl. We recently saw Tecia Torres land 144 significant strikes on Hill and score 97 DraftKings points in a decision and Lemos scored 91 points in her only UFC decision, so Lemos’ floor looks solid here. That makes her a really solid low-risk play and she always has a slate-breaking ceiling with 9 of her 10 career wins coming early, including eight in the first round. The odds imply she has a 72% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish and a 15% chance it comes in the first round.
It’s generally hard to get excited about playing Hill in DFS as she’s only scored above 84 DraftKings points once in her last 10 fights and has lost three of her last four matches. This is the rare occasion where she’s a massive underdog, so at just $6,700 you could argue that her ceiling is less important as she has the chance to serve as a value play if she can somehow pull off the upset. We only really see that happening if Lemos gasses out, but that’s certainly a possible scenario. There’s also always the chance that Hill slices her open with an elbow out of the clinch and forces a doctor stoppage, which we’ve seen her do once in the past. While neither of those outcomes are all that likely, a late finish in what we expect to be a high-volume fight would almost certainly propel Hill into the winning DraftKings lineup at her bottom-of-the-barrel price tag and she projects to go lower owned than her implied chances of winning. Hill was still just 16% owned in her last fight priced at $7,500 as a +120 underdog on a 13-fight slate against Tecia Torres and we don’t expect her to be very highly owned here either. The odds imply she has a 28% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish and a 5% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #2
Stephen Thompson
18th UFC Fight (11-5-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss against Gilbert Burns, Thompson has now fought to three straight decisions, and the only time he hasn’t gone the distance in his last nine fights was a 2019 R2 KO loss against Anthony Pettis. That also remains the only time Thompson has been finished in his 22 pro fights. While Thompson has a solid 73% career takedown defense, Burns was able to get him to the mat on three different occasions, landing a takedown in each round and finishing 3 for 6 on his attempts. Thompson has still never won a UFC fight where he was taken down even once (0-3-1), but only four of his 17 UFC opponents have actually been able to get him to the mat. Burns is notably just the second person to get Thompson down more than once and the first since Matt Brown landed 5 takedowns on 13 attempts all the way back in 2012 in what was just Thompson’s second UFC match.
It’s interesting that Burns was able to land 50% of his takedown attempts against the 73% defense of Thompson considering Burns has just a 36% career takedown accuracy. Burns finished the low-volume decision ahead in significant strikes just 29-19 and in total strikes 101-59 as far more ground strikes were landed than on the feet. Burns also accrued over seven minutes of control time as he was able to hold Thompson on the mat for over three minutes in both the first and third rounds. Thompson was able to remain on his feet for almost the entire second round before Burns landed a late takedown in that round as well. All three judges rightfully ruled the decision 29-28 in Burns’ favor.
That last fight notably took place at T-Mobile Arena in the larger Octagon, which seemingly would have favored Thompson as it gives him more room to evade, but this next fight will be back in the smaller Octagon at the Apex. With that said, Thompson was able to defeat Geoff Neal in the smaller Apex Octagon in December 2020 five-round decision in his second most recent fight, but Neal also didn’t represent a takedown threat as he finished with zero attempts and has only landed three in his career. Thompson put on a striking clinic and won a unanimous 50-45 decision and landed a career high 171 significant strikes in that fight, while only allowing Neal to land 85.
That was the second straight fight where Thompson set a new career high in significant strikes landed, after he totaled 138 in just three rounds against Vicente Luque in his previous fight. Prior to the 2019 decision win over Luque, Thompson was knocked out in the second round by Anthony Pettis and beaten in an ultra low-volume five round 2018 decision against Darren Till. Thompson beat Jorge Masvidal in a three-round decision before the loss to Till, but failed to beat Tyron Woodley in two title fights before that (one loss and one draw).
Now 16-5-1 as a pro, Thompson has seven wins by KO and one by submission, but hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016 when he landed a first round knockout against Johny Hendricks. His lone submission win occurred in 2010 in his third pro fight and he’s a pure karate style fighter and is no sort of submission threat. Four of his five career losses have come by decision, with the 2019 R2 KO loss to Pettis being his only early loss.
Thompson is a high-level striker who does a great job at avoiding taking damage. He lands an average of 4.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.75 per minute. He also has a legit 73% takedown defense as he floats around the Octagon like he’s on an air hockey table. His unique, word-class karate style is incredibly tough to prepare for, but we often see opponents bring in Raymond Daniels to try and mimic Thompson’s approach during training, which worked out well for Gilbert Burns.
Before turning pro in MMA, Thompson was impressively 57-0 as a kickboxer with 40 KO’s. He owns various black belts, and despite getting up there in age, Thompson still looks like a dangerous striker even if he’s unlikely to land many finishes.
Belal Muhammad
15th UFC Fight (10-3, NC)Coming off a decision win over a geriatric Demian Maia, Belal likely shared old war stories about the time he almost lost an eye in combat following the match. Maia amazingly went 1 for 21 on his takedown attempts in the fight and looked exhausted in the back half as Belel easily took over in the later rounds. Maia was able to win the first round on two of the judges’ score cards through his one landed takedown and half a round of control time, as we only saw a combined seven significant strikes landed in the first five minutes. Belal increased his output some after that and finished the fight ahead in significant strikes 45-21 and in total strikes 92-23, but the majority of the fight was spent with Belal simply shedding an exhausted Maia off of him. Belal entered that fight with an already impressive 85% takedown defense, which has since risen to 91% following that performance.
Three months prior to that decision win, Belal absorbed one of the worst eye pokes in recent memory as Leon Edwards tried to take home a souvenir. Belal requested but was not granted a rematch with Edwards, who has since returned to his full time job of watching fights fall through as he’s now had six canceled fights and a No Contest to just one complete fight in his last eight bookings.
Prior to his recent match against Edwards, Belal took on a struggling Dhiego Lima. Belal landed a career high 129 significant strikes, but absorbed a massive 26 strikes to his legs. That striking total blew away Muhammad’s previoius career high of 88 significant strikes landed in a match.
Since joining the UFC in 2016, 10 of Belal’s fights have ended in decisions, including 9 of his last 10, not counting his No Contest. Impressively, he’s only lost once in those 10 fights, which came in a 2019 decision against Geoff Neal. Muhammad’s lone finish over that period was a R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission victory over Takashi Sato, who’s last three losses have all come by submission. Even with that one finish, Muhammad’s last 10 fights (not counting the No Contest) all made it to the third round.
In his 2016 UFC debut, Muhammad lost a decision to Alan Jouban, but bounced back with a 2016 R3 KO in his next fight just 41 seconds before the fight ended with the judges. Following his only KO win in the UFC, Muhammad suffered his only KO loss, which came in the first round of his 2016 fight against a violent Vicente Luque. Other than that R1 KO loss and his No Contest, Belal’s other 12 UFC fights have all seen the third round.
A big part of Belal’s game is to shoot for lots of takedowns and he averages over seven attempts per 15 minutes, although he has a putrid 28% takedown accuracy. While he unsurprisingly wasn’t looking to take Demian Maia to the mat and lacked the time in the Edwards fight to shoot any, Belal notably went just 1 for 10 on his attempts against Dhiego Lima (73% career takedown defense) and just 2 for 8 before that against Lyman Good (75% career takedown defense). Now he gets an opponent with a similar 73% takedown defense so those seem like somewhat decent comps, albeit no one is a great comp for Stephen Thompson in general. After facing one of the most one-dimensional grapplers in the division in his last fight, now Belal will face one of the most one-dimensional strikers, so his training camps were likely dramatically different.
Fight Prediction:
Thompson will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, but Belal is five years younger than the 38-year-old Thompson.
This fight is pretty straightforward, as Thompson needs to keep it on the feet to win, while Belal should be looking to get it to the mat. Thompson is 0-3-1 in UFC fights where he gets taken down even once, but 11-2 when he can keep it standing. And while Thompson has consistently been completely dependent on defending takedowns to win fights, Belal is almost entirely reliant on landing takedowns to secure victories, as he’s gone 9-1 in UFC fights where he’s landed at least one takedown, but just 1-2 in fights where he’s failed to ground his opponent. The only time he’s ever won a UFC match without landing a takedown was in his recent fight against one-dimensional world champion grappler Demian Maia, which shouldn’t even count as that’s the one rare instance where Belal didn’t want to get the fight to the ground and didn’t attempt any takedowns. Belal is more of a quantity over quality type guy when it comes to takedowns as he owns just a 28% defense, but he still manages to average 1.8 takedowns landed on 6.4 attempts per 15 minutes. We really don’t see much of a chance for Belal to outstrike Thompson on the feet, so if he fails to get the fight to the ground we expect Thompson to easily win a decision. That will likely leave Belal dependent on landing not one, but two takedowns to win two different rounds as we’d be shocked if this fight didn’t go the distance. Considering only two of Thompson’s 17 UFC opponents have been able to get him down more than once, we have to give the edge to Thompson to win this fight, but considering the smaller Octagon size at the Apex, Belal definitely has a chance to pull off the upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Goes the Distance” at -200.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
As a one-dimensional striker with zero takedowns in his last 10 fights, it’s tougher for Thompson to score well for DFS in a three-round fight without a finish, something he hasn’t achieved in his last nine matches dating back to 2016. He’s been in so many five round fights that his DraftKings scoresheet is somewhat inflated, albeit still unimpressive, when it comes to considering him in a three-round match. That could be part of the reason why he was as highly owned as he was (31%) in his recent three-round fight against Gilbert Burns, which seemed way too high considering his chances of actually returning value. It will be interesting to see how/if the field adjusts. His only three-round decision to even score semi-decently came as he set a career high pace in striking (9.2 SSL/min) in a crazy fight against Vicente Luque, which is well over double his career average of 4.06 SSL/min. Even then, he still scored just 96 DraftKings points in that career best performance, which just proves he needs a finish to return value at his high price tag in this fight. Belal has notably only been finished once in his career, which coincidentally also came against Vicente Luque in the first round of a 2016 match. So with Thompson failing to finish anyone over the last five plus years and Belal similarly five years removed from his lone career early a loss, this looks like an unlikely spot for Thompson to get a knockout, and he’ll likely continue to be over owned by the field. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.
Belal is a consistently unexciting DFS prospect who’s failed to top 95 DraftKings points in his last 10 fights, but has shown somewhat of a decent floor for his price tag as he’s averaged 81 points in his last eight wins. Unfortunately, this looks like a really tough matchup for him to score well as he goes against an opponent in Thomas who rarely gets hit (2.75 SSA/min) or taken down (73% takedown defense). Now in fairness, the only way we see Belal winning this fight is by landing takedowns, so if you’re playing him and therefore relying on a win, it would almost certainly include a couple of takedowns. Nevertheless, it would be shocking to see any sort of takedown explosion and he’s unlikely to put up a big striking total, so even at his cheap price tag it tougher to see Belal returning value without a finish. Considering eight of his last nine wins have ended in decisions, that's a tough thing to rely on and Thompson has notably only been finished once in his career. So overall this looks like a fight you want to fade, but we sort of understand sprinkling a little Belal into your exposure pool as a value play. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish and a 6% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #1
Chris Daukaus
5th UFC Fight (4-0)After their first two scheduled fights were canceled because of Shamil Abdurakhimov withdrawing due to COVID, Daukaus was finally able to step inside the Octagon with the 40-year-old and made up for lost time. The fight actually started off a little slower than Daukaus’ previous three fights, but he dropped Abdurakhimov late in the first round with a perfect left hook and nearly finished the fight with ground and pound but simply ran out of time as the ref gave Abdurakhimov a long leash. Daukaus dropped Abdurakhimov again just over a minute into round two and again the ref gave Abdurakhimov every opportunity to stay in the fight even after it looked like it could have been a walk off KO. So after a moment of pause Daukaus jumped on top and finished the fight with elbows as he landed his fifth straight knockout victory, with the previous four ending in round one. With that win, Daukaus is now the #7 ranked Heavyweight. Following that recent win, DC asked Daukaus who he wanted to fight next and Daukaus appeared ready for the question as he replied, “Alright so there’s three different uh…alright yeah, so we’ll do Stipe…you know Firefighter versus Cop, I’ll take that. The winner of Rozenstruik or Blaydes tonight, Volkov and Tybura. I’ll take any of those people.” So he notably called out every single Heavyweight ranked #2 through #9 EXCEPT Derrick Lewis.
Daukaus’ last 10 fights have now all ended in knockouts (9-1), with seven of those ending in the first round and three ending in round two. He’s only been to one decision in 15 pro fights, which came in a 2016 victory in Daukaus’ 5th career match, which was also the only time he’s ever been past the second round. Thirteen of his other 14 fights have ended in knockouts (11-2), while he was also submitted once in the second round of a 2015 match in his 4th pro fight. Of those 13 knockouts, 9 have occurred in the first round (8-1) and 4 have come in round two (3-1). Other than his lone decision, he’s only been in one fight that made it past the midway mark in the second round, which ended in a late round two 2019 TKO loss. So he’s never landed a finish beyond the 7:16 mark in a fight.
Daukaus exploded onto the UFC scene in August 2020 with a violent first round knockout, as he relieved Parker Porter from consciousness in what was the UFC debut for each fighter. Daukaus then silenced doubters with another first round knockout, this time against the previously undefeated Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira. The UFC then paired him up with a different challenge in longtime UFC veteran and grappling specialist Alexey Oleynik. Daukaus passed that test as well as he remained on his feet and worked Oleynik’s head like a speed bag on the fence to finish the fight less than two minutes into the first round. So Daukaus finished his first three UFC opponents in a combined seven minutes and eight seconds before taking six minutes and 23 seconds to get his most recent opponent out of there.
Daukaus’ weight in each of those fights was a hotly debated topic, as he came in at 241 lb in his Heavyweight debut and then just 227 lb for his second UFC fight, 234 lb for his third fight and 231 lb most recently. He seems to know what he’s doing as his lighter weight appears to give him the speed advantage while he’s definitely not lacking in power.
While we haven’t seen any of Daukaus’ UFC fights hit the mat, he is notably a BJJ black belt, although he trains out of a smaller gym with no big names, so it’s fair to question his grappling, although that shouldn’t come into play in this next match. We also don’t really know what his cardio looks like later in fights as he’s only been past the second round once in his career, which was in a 2016 decision.
Daukaus’ last two opponents were a combined 83 years old (not joking), and his first two opponents in the UFC were overweight and underwhelming. So we really haven’t seen Daukaus tested yet and we should learn a lot from this next matchup.
Derrick Lewis
23rd UFC Fight (16-6)Entering this fight as the #3 ranked Heavyweight, Lewis is coming off a R3 TKO loss to Ciryl Gane for the controversial Interim Heavyweight belt. Gane proved to be too fast, too long and too technical for Lewis, who simply couldn’t keep up with the light footed Frenchman. Gane is an inch taller than Lewis with a 2” longer reach and he did a great job of maximizing both as he darted in and out of space while landing all 32 of his leg kick attempts, which allowed him to stay out of the pocket while chopping out Lewis’ base. Gane clearly frustrated Lewis with his speed and technical advantages combined with his defensively sound approach, and Lewis had no answers in the fight as Gane insanely outlanded him 98-16 in significant strikes and 112-16 in total strikes before knocking him out late in the third round. That fight notably took place in Lewis’ hometown of Houston inside the larger Octagon, which also worked in Gane’s favor as he had more room to evade in the few times that Lewis blitzed forward. For all of the Gane detractors who complain about his patient fighting style, he really put it on Lewis late in the third round as he went in for the kill with a barrage of violent strikes to end the fight. Lewis never stood a chance in the match, but keep in mind Gane is one of the toughest stylistic matchups for Lewis in the Heavyweight division.
That was notably Lewis’ 14th straight fight to make it past the first round, while 10 of those 14 fights ended in rounds 2-4 and the other four resulted in three-round decisions. Lewis’ last 10 fights have all ended in either round two (4), round three (3) or three round decisions (3). Looking back to the beginning of his UFC career, 13 of his first 15 UFC fights ended in KOs, with him winning 10 of those. Five of his first eight UFC fights ended in the first round, but Lewis hasn’t won a fight in round one since 2016 and hasn’t lost in the first round since a 2014 R1 KO, which was the only time he’s ever been finished in round one.
Prior to the recent TKO loss, Lewis landed a massive upset of Curtis Blaydes, as he cadavered Blaydes early in the second round after entering that fight as a sizable +340 underdog. Blaydes went 0 for 3 on his takedown attempts, but outlanded Lewis 28-7 in strikes in a fight that lasted just under six and a half minutes before Blaydes foolishly telegraphed a takedown from distance and bowed into a Lewis uppercut. While the fight didn’t make it very long, it was on pace to finish with Blaydes ahead in striking 109-27 as he was landing 4.35 SS/min. Lewis on the other hand was doing Derrick Lewis things, averaging just 1.09 SS/min, but once again proving it only takes one. That marked Lewis' fourth straight win and second R2 KO/TKO in a row after he previously knocked out Alexey Oleynik in the opening seconds of round two.
Prior to the pair of second round knockouts against two one-dimensional grapplers, the 36-year-old Lewis hadn’t finished an opponent since 2018 when he knocked out Alexander Volkov with 11 seconds to go in the final round in a fight Lewis was losing badly. He’s now 25-8 as a pro, with 20 wins by KO, 1 by submission and four decisions. He’s been knocked out five times, submitted once and lost a pair of decisions.
This will be Lewis’ 12th five round fight of his career (9th in the UFC), and he has never been past the fourth round. The first three five-round fights of his career came prior to joining the UFC. The first was in 2012 and ended in a No Contest just 48 seconds in for “Illegal Strikes.” His next was later in 2012 and ended in a second round KO win in a Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship fight, immediately followed by a third round KO win in a 2013 Legacy FC Heavyweight Championship defense. His first five-round fight in the UFC was in 2016 and ended in a fourth round KO win, immediately followed by a second round KO win in 2017 and then a fourth round KO loss against Mark Hunt in 2017. Following the loss, Lewis rattled off three straight three-round wins with a third round KO of Marcin Tybura, a staring contest decision win over Francis Ngannou and a late third round KO of Alexander Volkov. That was enough to get him a title shot against Daniel Cormier in the seventh five-round five of Lewis’ career. Cormier submitted Lewis in the second round, which remains the only time Lewis has been submitted in his career. Lewis was then finished again in another five-round match as he was knocked out by Junior dos Santos in the second round of his next fight. He then won a pair of three-round decisions, before landing back-to-back second round knockouts in fights scheduled to go five-rounds in his most recent two matches, leading up to his most recent R3 TKO loss in his last five-round fight. So in summary, Lewis is 6-4 plus a No Contest in his 11 career five-round fights. All of those fights ended early, and ignoring the No Contest, they all ended in rounds two (4-2), three (1-1) or four (1-1). Interestingly, four of Lewis’ last five fights scheduled to go five rounds have ended in the second round.
Here are all 11 of Derrick Lewis’ five-round fights:
2012 No Contest (Pre-UFC)
2012 R2 KO W (Pre-UFC)
2013 R3 KO W (Pre-UFC)
2016 R4 KO W
2017 R2 KO W
2017 R4 KO L
2018 R2 SUB L
2019 R2 KO L
2020 R2 KO W
2021 R2 KO W
2021 R3 TKO L
Lewis’ other two UFC losses occurred in three round fights with a 2015 R2 TKO and a 2014 R1 KO, so despite his low striking volume he’s won all four of the decisions he’s been to in the UFC, all of which occurred in three-round fights. All six of his UFC losses have come early (5 KOs & 1 Submission), one in round one, three in round two, one in round three and one in round four.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’3” but Lewis will have a 3” reach advantage. Daukaus is also 4 years younger than the 36-year-old Lewis.
This represents a major step up in competition for Daukaus and an easier stylistic matchup for Lewis compared to his last fight. Lewis had no answer for the heavy leg strikes of Gane, who landed all 32 of his attempts in less than three rounds of action (2.26 leg strikes per minute). Working in Lewis’ favor going into this next matchup, Daukaus has only landed/attempted six total leg strikes in his four UFC fights (0.44 leg strikes per minute) and is primarily a puncher. Also working in Lewis’ favor, he’ll be the one with the reach advantage in this upcoming matchup, after Gane was able to work from distance as the taller and longer fighter in Lewis’ last match. Daukaus will have a speed advantage, which could pose problems for Lewis, but we haven’t seen Daukaus use his speed to be as defensively sound as Gane, and has instead utilized his speed advantage offensively to land devastating combinations in the pocket. While Lewis has been knocked out five times in his career, only one of those occurred in the first round (2014). Daukaus similarly has only been finished in the first round once in his career, also all the way back in 2014, in what was just his second pro fight. It seems likely that this fight will begin slower with a feeling out process, as Daukaus steps into the biggest fight of his career, in what will also be the first five-round fight he’s ever been part of. Meanwhile on the other side, Lewis will be looking to rebound from a KO loss, something he’s generally done a good job of doing in the past as he’s gone 4-0 following the previous four KO losses of his career. We expect Daukaus to have to take more risks than Gane was forced to, which will raise the chances that he gets clipped with a bomb from Lewis. While we expect Daukaus to use his speed advantage to land more volume, this fight will essentially be a game of Russian Roulette as we see who’s chin gives out first. We’d be shocked to see the fight end in anything but a KO, unless these two simply stare at each other for 25 minutes, which is always possible, but still highly unlikely. We don’t expect to see the fight end in the opening five minutes and a round two or three KO are the most likely finishing points, with round two being the most likely. Both fighters have the ability to knock out the other, but we like Lewis’ chances to pull off the upset and see it coming in a round two KO.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +460.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets.
DFS Implications:
Through the first 42 UFC DFS slates of 2021, we’ve seen at least one five-round fighter end up in the winning DraftKings lineup 76% of the time. Derrick Lewis has fought twice this year, both in five-round fights, and neither time did the winner of his fight end up in the winning DraftKings lineup. His two fights represent 20% of the main events that did not end up in the DraftKings winning lineup. His first 2021 fight was against Curtis Blaydes and Lewis landed an early R2 KO that scored just 82.8 DraftKings points and 100.2 points on FanDuel. So even though he was priced at just $6,800 on DraftKings and $17 on FanDuel, he didn’t end up in the winning lineup on either site. His second fight this year was against Ciryl Gane, who knocked Lewis out late in the third round, but still scored just 89.43 DraftKings points and 111.8 points on FanDuel. Priced at $9,400 on DraftKings and $23 on FanDuel, Gane also didn’t end up in winning lineups on either site. It seems safe to say that Lewis’ combination of power and low striking volume make it really tough for the winner to score well and will generally fail to produce a usable score in fights that make it past the first round. And with that in mind, Lewis hasn’t finished anyone in the first round since 2016, while his only career first round loss was all the way back in 2014.
Daukaus leads the DraftKings slate in fantasy points per fight (FPPF) at 119.8, which when combined with the fact that he’s the favorite in the main event will result in him being the most popular fighter on the slate. Already a popular DFS play in general, the last time Daukaus fought he was 37% owned, priced at $8,800 on a 13-fight slate with three five-round fights and tons of great expensive options to choose from. Prior to that, Daukaus was 48% owned as a -200 favorite on another 13-fight slate. Now that he’s coming off his fourth straight KO win and holds a perfect 4-0 UFC record with DraftKings scores of 107, 104, 141 and 127, we expect the field to have a hard time not clicking Daukaus’ name priced at just $8,300 in his first five-round fight. Daukaus’ has insanely landed multiple knockdowns in three of his four UFC fights, and is on an entirely unsustainable and ridiculous pace of 6.66 knockdowns per 15 minutes. To put that into context, the all time UFC leader in knockdowns averaged per 15 minutes (minimum five UFC fights) is Todd Duffee, who averaged 2.91 per 15 minutes—less than half of what Daukaus is averaging. If Daukaus goes the full 25 minutes in this fight without landing a knockdown, he’ll now become eligible for the record books with five UFC fights under his belt and he would still entire in the #2 spot of all time at 2.34 knockdowns per 15 minutes. He doesn’t even need to land a knockdown to take over the #1 spot, he just needs this fight to last 17 minutes and 21 seconds or less. While Derrick Lewis has five UFC KO/TKO losses on his record, he’s only been knocked down twice in 22 UFC fights—once in 2015 and another in 2019. We’ve seen him get dropped to a knee and get finished by TKO along the fence as he shells up, but it’s rare for him to officially get knocked down, even when he does get finished. Three of his five UFC KO/TKO losses have notably NOT included a knockdown. So the odds of Daukaus landing a knockdown appear low and the odds he again lands a pair of knockdowns appear exponentially smaller. You can be sure the vast majority of the field will overlook such details, which presents a major edge on this slate. In addition to rarely getting knocked down, it’s rare to see much striking volume in Derrick Lewis fights as he averages a near identical 2.49 SSL/min and 2.48 SSA/min. In his 22 UFC fights, only three opponents have landed more than 37 significant strikes on him and he’s never landed more than 53 on anybody. He’s amazingly absorbed fewer than 12 and landed fewer than 21 significant strikes in half of his UFC fights. So overall, Daukaus will have a tough time knocking Lewis down and is unlikely to land much volume. He’s also never attempted a takedown in the UFC and is taking a major step up in competition after knocking out a pair of plodding Heavyweights in his first two UFC fights followed by a couple of old geezers who were a combined 83 years old in his last two. When you combine all of that with the fact that Daukaus will be the highest owned fighter on the slate by a wide margin, this looks like an absolutely amazing leverage spot to fade Daukaus. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 41% chance to land a finish and just a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Lewis has topped 86 DraftKings points just once in his last 10 fights, which was when he knocked out aging one-dimensional grappler Alexey Oleynik in the second round. His other recent early wins have scored just 83, 77 and 86 points, with all of those occurring in the second and third rounds. He also scored just 41, 51 and 38 points in his last three decision wins, which all occurred in three round fights but, a) still wouldn’t be anywhere close to useful even if we extend those numbers over five rounds and b) Derrick Lewis’ previous 11 five-round fights have all ended in under 19 minutes. So Lewis has shown he can score well with a second round win, but still generally doesn’t put up big scores without a first round finish. He hasn’t landed a first round finish in his last 14 fights, with his last one occurring all the way back in 2016 against journeyman Gabriel Gonzaga who retired one fight later with 10 KO losses on his record, including five in the first round. Lewis’ last five knockouts have occurred in the second and third rounds and that appears to be his comfort zone for landing finishes. DraftKings’ statsheet only goes back 10 fights, but if we look back a little further, Lewis scored 99 points in a 2017 R2 KO win over Travis Browne, but just 65 points in a 2016 R4 KO over Shamil Abdurakhimov. So Lewis likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to be useful and even with a second round win there’s still a decent chance he busts. His aforementioned low striking volume and unlikelihood of landing any takedowns (0.5 TDL/15min) simply doesn’t translate to scoring production. So while we like fading Daukaus in this fight, that doesn’t mean you have to play Lewis and you can certainly just fade this fight altogether. But if Lewis lands a first round knockout it’s hard to see him getting left out of the winning lineup and even with a second round knockout there’s still a decent chance he scores enough to be useful at his price. If this fight makes it past the second round we don’t see either fighter scoring enough to be useful. The odds imply Lewis has a 44% chance to win, a 32% chance to land a finish, a 16% chance it comes in the first round and an 8% chance it comes in round two.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
We recently partnered with PrizePicks, who offer a new way to play DFS. Instead of competing against other users, you simply pick the over/under on two or more fighters' stat lines (i.e. fight time or fantasy points scored). Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
Top UFC PrizePicks Play of the Week:
- Justin Tafa Under 5 min Fight Time
For the rest of our top PrizePicks plays check out our DFS Cheat Sheet in our premium DFS content at patreon.com/mmadfs.
