Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #10
Ariane Carnelossi
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off her first UFC win, Carnelossi landed a R2 TKO against UFC newcomer Na Liang. The fight immediately came out of the gate with a furious pace, as Liang’s fights always do, and following a back and forth grappling heavy first round Liang had to be helped off the mat by her corner following the close of the first round. Clearly gassed, Liang had nothing left in the second round and Carnelossi was able to force a stoppage without even really landing anything too impactful, simply due to the fact that Liang was no longer even fighting back. Carnelossi’s last two wins have now both come by TKO, after she landed a R3 KO by Body Kick in 2019 just before joining the UFC.
Following that 2019 R3 TKO win, Carnelossi lost her UFC debut against Angela Hill in September 2019 in another R3 TKO, this time due to a doctor stoppage caused by a slicing elbow that split Carnelossi open above the eye. Carnelossi then didn’t fight for 19 months leading up to her most recent victory. She had been scheduled to take on Mackenzie Dern in April 2020, but the event was canceled due to COVID.
Prior to losing her UFC debut to Hill, Carnelossi had won 12 fights in a row, with her only other career loss coming in a 2014 R1 Kneebar submission against Amanda Ribas in Carnelossi’s pro debut. Eight of those 12 wins were by KO—including seven in the first two rounds—while she also landed a 2016 R1 submission and won three decisions. All three of those decisions came in her last eight wins as she began facing somewhat tougher competition. In a 2017 decision, Carnelossi notably defeated Gloria de Paula, who’s a solid striker and is now in the UFC. However, most of Carnelossi’s wins have come against opponents with very little experience.
Carnelossi is primarily a striker, but will occasionally look for takedowns with average success. However, she isn’t much of a submission threat, with her lone career submission win coming in a 2016 R1 Keylock. Carnelossi is powerful but not especially quick and doesn’t have a great striking defense. She averages the 5th most significant strikes landed on the slate at 5.22/min, but absorbs the 3rd most at 6.03/min. She failed to land her only takedown attempt in the UFC and was taken down three times on four attempts in her last fight.
Istela Nunes
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Nunes had been scheduled to make her UFC debut back in 2019 against Angela Hill, but a failed drug test removed her from that card and resulted in a two year suspension. She claims to this day that she never took any kind of anabolic steroid but the test results disagreed. She had then more recently been scheduled to face Jinh Yu Frey in July 2021, but Nunes withdrew from that fight and is now booked for the third time to make her UFC debut.
With the series of cancelations and suspension, Nunes now hasn’t competed since 2018, but is still just 29 years old. Her last fight was in July 2018 and took place at 125 lb, however, the rest of her career has been spent at 115 lb where she’ll be making her UFC debut.
A two time Muay Thai world champion, Nunes’ most dangerous weapons are her legs, but she has decent hands as well. She’s a patient one-dimensional striker who methodically picks her spots, while not throwing a ton of volume. She didn’t look to grapple in any of her last four fights and we’ve seen her struggle off her back, so she clearly wants to keep fights standing.
Two of her six career wins have come by KO, with the other four ending in decisions. Her only career loss came in a second round submission in the ONE Strawweight Championship against a solid grappler in Angela Lee. Nune’s last two wins have both ended in decisions and her only official early win since her 2015 pro debut was a third round head kick KO in 2016.
Fight Prediction:
Nunes will have a 2” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
This sets up primarily as a striking battle, but it’s not impossible that Carnelossi looks to get it to the ground if she can’t hang on the feet. Nunes’ drug suspension and extremely long layoff make this a higher variance spot than normal, as we have no idea how she’ll look after over three years away from fighting. Both ladies are somewhat patient at times, so if we don’t see a knockout then a lower volume decision is the most likely outcome. Carnelossi has been a knockout specialist, with 9 of her 13 career wins coming by KO. She looks to be more powerful with her punches, while Nunes looks quicker and throws better kicks. So Carnelossi will need to close the distance to find success, while Nunes would be wise to keep the fight at kicking range, especially considering her 5” reach advantage. Because of that it would make sense for Carnelossi to try and make this fight ugly, fight out of the clinch and potentially look to take it to the ground, especially considering how bad Nunes has looked off of her back. Whether or not Carnelossi does that is a different story. If Nunes can control the range in this fight she should be able to pepper Carnelossi with kicks and potentially land another head kick KO. However, if Carnelossi can close the distance we like her short range power to prevail. We’ll give Carnelossi the nod here, but this could be a close fight and both ladies have a puncher’s chance to land a knockout.
Our favorite two bet here is “Fight Ends in KO” at +175 but if you want to take a stab on something our favorite long shot is “Carnelossi Wins by R2 KO” at +1100.
DFS Implications:
Carnelossi is coming off her first UFC win, after losing her prior debut, and scored a respectable 113 DraftKings points and 92 points on FanDuel in the second round TKO finish. However, that notably came in a high-paced brawl against a debuting grappler who unloaded her gas tank in the first four minutes and essentially conceded the second round stoppage, so the context is important. Carnelossi now faces another UFC newcomer in Istela Nunes, who hasn’t competed in over three years and is coming off a two year steroids suspension, so this also makes for a high-variance spot. However, Nunes has notably never been knocked out and has an extensive Muay Thai background, so this is a less likely spot for Carnelossi to land another KO compared to her last matchup, which is likely what she’ll need to return value on either DFS site as we don’t see her putting up a big score in a decision. It’s entirely possible that Nunes looks rusty following the layoff and Carnelossi lands her 10th career knockout, but that really just comes down to betting on the unknown. The odds imply Carnelossi has a 61% chance to win, a 27% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Nunes is a one-dimensional striker who appears entirely reliant on landing a finish to score well. We didn’t see her initiate any takedown attempts in her last four fights and her patient kick-heavy fighting style doesn’t lend itself to producing high-volume brawls. She has a patient Muay Thai approach and throws a good amount of prodding kicks and calculated flurries of strikes, which are encouraging for her chances to land a finish, but not so much for putting up a big striking total. Nunes is most dangerous with her kicks and knees and throws a nice lead left head kick that she used to knock out her opponent in her last finish. With that said, Nunes is now coming off a two year doping suspension and hasn’t competed since July 2018 as she comes into her UFC debut, so it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in her. She has the potential to look great and knock Carnelossi out, but she could also look terrible. So with a wide range of outcomes, it makes sense to sprinkle her into your tournament exposure without going too overboard. The odds imply she has a 39% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #9
Danaa Batgerel
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off back-to-back R1 KO wins, Batgerel knocked out Guido Cannetti in just over three minutes before most recently finishing Kevin Natividad in just 50 seconds. It’s important to keep in mind that both of those opponents have been prone to getting finished with all three of Natividad’s career losses coming by KO, including both of his UFC fights, and five of Cannetti’s six career losses also coming early. For the record, Cannetti had previously been submitted four times, but had never been knocked out until he faced Batgerel, but Cannetti is now 2-5 in the UFC, with four of those losses coming early. That’s not to take anything away from Batgerel, who has sneaky power and dropped Natividad with a left hook as he backed away to notch his most recent win. Batgerel also notably knocked down Cannetti with a left hook, so that’s consistently one of his most dangerous weapons.
Impressively, Batgerel’s last six wins have all come early, with his last four victories occurring in R1 and the two before that ending in R2. He’s now 9-2 as a pro, with five KOs, two submissions and two decisions. Both of those submissions came by Rear-Naked Choke, and with zero takedowns in his three UFC fights, it seems safe to say that Batgerel is primarily a striker as his background is in kickboxing. Both of his career losses have gone the distance, with his only UFC loss ending in a decision in his 2019 debut. Despite outlanding his opponent 85-36 in significant strikes and 119-63 in total strikes, the judges did not think Batgerel had done enough to get the victory. He was taken down three times on seven attempts and controlled for nearly three minutes, so that apparently ended up being the deciding factor. Batgerel also notably has a decision win over UFC fighter Kai Kara France on his pre-UFC record, although that was all the way back in 2013.
Brandon Davis
8th UFC Fight (2-5)This will be Davis’s second stint in the UFC after he went 2-5 from 2018 to 2019 with the organization. After getting released in 2019, Davis won four straight fights with a pair of decisions, a R2 Rear-Naked Choke submission and then a R1 TKO most recently. Davis notably faced some stiff competition in his time with the UFC as he went up against Giga Chikadze, Kyung Ho Kang, Randy Costa, Zabit Magomedsharipov and Enrique Barzola in his last five UFC fights. Four of his five UFC losses went the distance with the last two against Chikadze and Kang ending in split-decisions. Davis had one UFC decision win to go along with a 2019 R2 Submission win over Randy Costa, so overall five of his seven UFC fights have ended with the judges and the only opponent to finish him was Zabit Magomedsharipov, who ended that fight with a R2 Kneebar.
The last time we saw Davis inside the UFC Octagon he lost a split-decision to Giga Chikadze in September 2019. Chikadze finished ahead in significant strikes 59-34 and in total strikes 71-36, while Davis landed 3 of his 7 takedown attempts with just over three minutes of control time. Davis had previously only landed two total takedowns on four attempts in his first six UFC fights and also didn’t attempt any on DWCS in 2017. So he’s shown an occasional willingness to wrestle, but he’s averaged less than two takedown attempts per 15 minutes and owns just a 45% takedown accuracy.
Davis is large for the 135 lb division and has fought as high as 155 lb in the past. He’s been alternating between 135 lb and 145 lb for a while, with his most recent fight occurring at 135 lb, but three of his last five taking place at 145 lb. Davis is very durable, and he’s never been knocked out in his career. The only two times he’s been finished both came by submission, with a 2018 R2 Kneebar and a 2014 R2 Rear-Naked Choke in his second pro fight. His other six pro losses have all ended in decisions. On the other side of things, 8 of his 14 career wins have come early, with four KOs and four submissions. Davis made his way into the UFC with a 2017 decision win on DWCS. He’s a BJJ purple belt and a Muay Thai brown belt.
Fight Prediction:
Davis will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Davis’ most valuable attribute appears to be his durability as he’s able to utilize his size in the 135 lb division to bully opponents. He was fighting at 155 lb right before he went on DWCS in 2017 when he dropped down to 145 lb. He fought his first four UFC fights at 145 lb (1-3), before dropping down to 135 lb when he submitted Randy Costa in the second round. He then lost a split-decision to Kyung Ho Kang at 135 lb before moving back up to 145 lb for his last UFC fight against Chikadze. Since then he bounced back and forth between 135 lb and 145 lb for his last four fights that he won outside of the UFC, with a pair of finishes at 135 lb and a pair of decisions at 145 lb. So he appears more dangerous at 135 lb and has overall had more success there, where he’s gone 3-1, than at 145 lb, where he’s gone 4-4 since 2017. Batgerel has lost the last two decisions he’s been to and hasn’t won with the judges dating back to a 2013 decision win over Kai Kara France. So Batgerel has generally been reliant on knocking opponents out or occasionally landing a Rer-Naked Choke submission. This looks like a much tougher matchup for Batgerel to get a finish than his last two fights and there’s a good chance Davis can force this to a close decision. Davis absorbs far more significant strikes on average at 4.33/min compared to just 2.65/min for Batgerel, but Davis likely mixes in some grappling to keep the fight close and he has a good chance to pull off the upset.
Our favorite bets are “Batgerel R1 KO” at +700, “Davis Wins by Decision” at +320 and “Davis Wins by Submission” at +1100. If you want to take a stab at something wider, our favorite long shot is “Davis Wins by R2 Submission” at +3500.
DFS Implications:
Batgerel is coming off back-to-back R1 KOs where he scored 128 and 107 DraftKings points and 116 and 122 points on FanDuel. Those two scoring explosions should drive up his ownership here in a much tougher spot to get a finish, so this looks like a great sell-high opportunity in tournaments. Batgerel is always dangerous on the feet, but Davis has notably never been knocked out and is big for the 135 lb division after previously fighting at 155 lb earlier in his career. Batgerel has never landed a takedown in the UFC, with just a single attempt in his three UFC fights, so he’s entirely reliant on landing a finish to return value. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Davis has never scored well on DraftKings, with totals of just 87 and 78 in his two UFC wins, with the first of those coming in a second round finish. He has fared better on FanDuel with scores of 101 and 115, although the second of those was propped up by nine takedowns defended, which you won’t be getting here. If you remove all of those defended takedowns that score plummets down to just 88 FanDuel points in his lone UFC decision win. While that’s not overly encouraging for his chances of scoring well, we’ve seen so few dogs win recently that if that trend continues any winning underdog score could be useful. Eight of Davis’ 14 career wins have come early, so there’s always a chance he gets a finish, but a decision win appears to be the more likely outcome as Batgerel has never been finished. The odds imply Davis has a 41% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #8
Lupita Godinez
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Sijara Eubanks had been scheduled to face Luana Carolina here, but Eubanks was forced to withdraw due to COVID protocols and in a rare turn of events Godinez goes from defeating a short notice replacement last week to becoming a short notice replacement this week. Godinez put on a dominating wrestling performance last week as she landed five takedowns with three and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over four minutes. She finished it with an Armbar submission, which is just the second finish of her career and the first submission.
Godinez fought the majority of her amateur career at Flyweight (125 lb), but has exclusively competed at Strawweight (115 lb) since turning pro. So Godinez will now be fighting at Flyweight for the first time as a pro just seven days after winning a fight at Strawweight.
Prior to her recent win, Godinez suffered her first career loss in a questionable split-decision in her April 2021 UFC debut. The loss came against one-dimensional grappler Jessica Penne, who spent the entire fight looking to take Godinez’s back. The fight ended with Godinez ahead in significant strikes 40-31 and in takedowns 3-1 while Penne led in total strikes 98-68. It seemed like Godinez had done enough to win, but two of the judges disagreed in what was somewhat of a weird fight.
Prior to losing the split-decision in her UFC debut, Godinez was 5-0 as a pro. Four of those fights ended in decisions, while her lone finish over that time came in a TKO in the first round of her second pro fight. She came close to landing a second KO win in a 2019 match, when she dropped her opponent just as the third round ended. The broadcast team even thought she had landed a KO, but it turned out the clock ran out before the fight could be stopped, so it went down as a decision.
In her last fight before joining the UFC, Godinez took on Vanessa Demopoulos in a five round LFA Strawweight Championship fight. Godinez started off the fight fast, showing off her crisp boxing skills and she later dropped Demopoulos in R4 and Demopoulos looked lost for a few seconds. Godinez also showed her awareness to stay out of danger against the submission specialist in Demopoulos, and went on to win a decision in a hard fought brawl that left both of their faces split open. In her fight prior to that, Godinez took on a pure striker in Lindsay Garbatt, and showed she can adjust her game plan based on her opponent, as she went 4 for 5 on takedowns against the one-dimensional striker.
UPDATE: Godinez weighed in well under the 126 lb limit at just 121.5 lb for this fight, while Carolina tipped the scales at 125.5 lb.
Luana Carolina
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off a low-volume split-decision victory, Carolina defeated Poliana Botelho despite trailing in significant strikes 34-25 and in takedowns 1-0. Carolina finished with just under five and a half minutes of control time, while Botelho had a little over four and half minutes in the slow paced match. Carolina was notably coming off a knee injury followed by an extended layoff going into that fight and she missed weight by 2.5 lb so she’ll be one to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
In her second most recent fight, Carolina was finished early in R1 with a violent Kneebar that immediately looked like it could have caused lasting damage and left her writhing in pain on the mat. Those fears turned out to be true, as Carolina suffered a partial tear to her left ACL, but was able to avoid surgery. She was also previously coming off a serious spine injury, so she continues to deal with various ailments.
Carolina has won seven of her last eight fights, however, before she went on DWCS in 2018 she had exclusively faced competition with little to no pro experience and this next matchup could be her toughest test to date.
Looking back to her 2019 UFC debut, Carolina was baptized by fire in a brawl against Priscila “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira. Carolina won a high-volume striking battle, leading in significant strikes 111-69 and total strikes 126-69. She also attempted three Guillotine Chokes and stuffed both of Cachoeira’s takedown attempts. Carolina showed the ability to land heavy head kicks in the match, but spent much of the fight circling away from action and waiting for Cachoeira to walk into kicking range. So she isn’t really the type to charge head first into a brawl.
Carolina is now 7-2 as a pro, with two wins by KO, one by submission and four decisions. Those four decisions notably all occurred in her last four wins and she hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016 in her fourth pro fight. Her first career loss came in a split-decision in her first pro fight back in 2015 and her only other career loss was the R1 Kneebar submission she suffered in her second most recent fight.
Carolina has notably only been taken down once on 11 attempts since joining the UFC, so she’s shown a pretty solid takedown defense for the most part. One thing to consider, however, is that seven of those 11 attempts came from opponents to have never landed a takedown in the UFC and most recently she was taken down once on four attempts. So her takedown defense has been good but not impenetrable and looks somewhat inflated.
Fight Prediction:
Carolina will have a significant 4” height advantage and 8” reach advantage.
This is an extremely unusual situation where we have a fighter competing for the second time in seven days and moving up a weight class, which adds some uncertainty in terms of how it will play out. It will be interesting to see if Godinez can overcome the large height and reach discrepancies, but that could make it tougher to land takedowns against the large opponent. Carolina towered over her at faceoffs and we could certainly see the size difference playing a major factor here. That could result in this playing out more as more of a striking battle as both women have no issue throwing down on the feet. Godinez has been the more impressive fighter throughout her career, so the only question will be what impact fighting twice in seven days has and whether or not she can overcome the size disadvantage. With all that said, we still like Godinez to win a decision here and she looked sharper than ever in her last fight and didn’t take any damage in the match.
We don’t love the betting options here, but we went with “Godinez Wins by Decision” at +160 and “Fight Goes the Distance” at -152.
DFS Implications:
Despite Godinez filling in on short notice after Carolina’s DraftKings price was already set, the pricing remains in-line with the odds so we don’t have a mispriced fighter situation on our hands. Godinez is a week removed from a career performance where she broke the slate with scores of 127 and 142 on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. It will be interesting to see how exactly the field handles the short turnaround and move up in weight, but we expect recency bias to drive up her ownership beyond where it was for last week’s slate, despite the fact that this looks to be a tougher situation all things considered. With that said, Godinez is a solid striker who mixes in takedowns and has shown the ability to fill up the statsheet. However, Carolina notaly has a 90% takedown defense, a 4” height advantage and an 8” reach advantage, so at least on paper this looks like a much tougher matchup for Godinez to land takedowns at will. Carolina has also never been knocked out so this doesn’t look like a great spot for Godinez to get a finish on the feet. We should see a decent amount of striking volume, but it’s unlikely to be enough for Godinez to return value in a decision unless she lands a bunch of takedowns on top of it, so you’re likely relying on her finishing odds due to her steep price tag. The odds imply Godinez has a 66% chance to win, a 31% chance to get a finish and a 12% chance it comes in R1.
While Carolina put up a decent score in a decision win in her 2019 UFC debut, that came in a crazy brawl against Priscila “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira, who always ends up in high-volume shootouts. Carolina spent much of the fight circling away from contact and counter striking, so her striking total was artificially inflated by her opponents aggressiveness. Since that match, Carolina has dealt with multiple injuries and scored just 65 DraftKings points in her most recent decision win. She’ll likely have the opportunity to defend multiple takedowns, which could prop up her FanDuel score, but Carolina hasn’t really done anything to get us excited about playing her. You’re really just hoping that her size advantage paired with Godinez’s quick turnaround creates a mismatch that allows Carolina to dominate this fight. Due to the uncertainty, it makes sense to sprinkle Carolina into your tournament exposure, but she’s not someone we’re overly excited about playing. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #7
Ramazan Emeev
7th UFC Fight (5-1)A Dagestani wrestler and former M-1 Middleweight champion, Emeev dropped down to 170 lb for his second UFC fight after winning a decision against Sam Alvey up at 185 lb in his 2017 UFC debut. Emeev’s last seven fights have all ended in decisions (6-1), going back to before he joined the UFC.
His only UFC loss came in a 2019 decision against Anthony Rocco Martin, who was able to defend all nine of Emeev’s takedown attempts and win a low-volume striking battle. That appears to be the blueprint for how you defeat the grappler, but it’s easier said than done. While Emeev only has a 29% career takedown accuracy, he still averages 2.3 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is relentless with his attempts. He’s gone 14 for 48 on takedowns in his six UFC fights and 8 for 21 in his last two fights.
We’ve seen low striking volume totals in all six of his UFC fights, as Emeev has never landed more than 53 significant strikes and never absorbed more than 44. He’s now won 9 of his last 10 fights and is 20-4 as a pro. His only KO loss came in R4 of a 2014 match and his only submission loss came in his second pro fight back in 2009 by way of R1 Triangle Choke. His two decision losses occurred in 2010 and 2019.
He does have 10 finishes in his 20 career wins, including three KOs and seven submissions, but the most recent nine of those all came when he was fighting up at 185 lb, before he joined the UFC. He seems to have settled into being a one-dimensional decision machine now, who simply looks to grind fights out on the mat.
Danny Roberts
11th UFC Fight (6-4)Coming off a 23 month layoff, we haven’t seen Roberts inside the Octagon since November 2019 when he knocked out Zelim Imadaev late in the second round. However, Imadaev is notably 0-3 in the UFC with two of those losses coming early. Roberts led that fight in significant strikes 37-28 and in total strikes 42-38. He landed one takedown, but that notably came on eight attempts. He was also taken down once on Imadaev’s only attempt. Since then Roberts has had three fights canceled, one due to COVID and two where Roberts withdrew.
Roberts’ last three fights have all ended early and only 2 of his 10 UFC fights have gone the distance. He’s been finished in all four of his UFC losses, with three KOs and one submission, and he’s landed finishes of his own in four of his six UFC wins with three R2 KOs and a R1 submission.
Looking at his entire career, Roberts is 17-5 since turning pro back in 2010, with eight of his wins coming by KO, five by submission and four decisions. All five of his career losses have come early, with three KOs and two submissions. He’s not a high-volume striker and only averages 3.41 SSL/min and 3.08 SSA/min. The only takedown he’s ever landed came in his last fight, but he’s been taken down 15 times in the UFC and owns a 53% takedown defense. Fighting out of England, Roberts started his MMA training with boxing, and is primarily just a striker, but will sporadically shoot for takedowns, however with just a 6% takedown accuracy he rarely lands any.
Fight Prediction:
Roberts will have a 3” height advantage, but Emeev will have a 2” reach advantage.
We have a clash of styles here as the boring decision grappler in Emeev takes on the striker in Roberts who rarely sees the judges. We expect Emeev’s grappling to prevail and for this to go to his eighth straight decision, but we suppose Roberts always has a puncher’s chance and also presents the possibility for Emeev to finally land a finish of his own. With that said, give us Emeev by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Emeev Wins by Decision” at +120, but if you want to throw a dart at something check out “Roberts Wins by R2 KO” at +2200.
DFS Implications:
Emeev has never been one to score well in DFS, but the new DraftKings scoring system has helped him to some extent. He’s coming off a career best 94 point performance after scoring 60, 73, 71, and 82 DraftKings points in his first four UFC wins. At his high price tag he still likely needs a finish to return value and he’s best viewed as a contrarian tournament play as he projects to be the lowest owned favorite on the card. The odds imply he has a 74% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
With four of his six UFC wins coming early, Roberts has scored decently when he lands a finish with DraftKings totals of 105, 102, 91 and 93, but has struggled to even remotely score well in decisions with scores of just 68 and 57. So this appears pretty cut and dry, even at his cheap price tag you’re relying on Roberts to end this one early to be useful on DraftKings. He’s more interesting on FanDuel where he should have the opportunity to defend a ton of takedowns, so on a smaller card it’s still possible he serves as a value play over there even in a decision win. The odds imply he has a 26% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #6
Bruno Silva
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Silva comes in having knocked out five straight opponents, with four of those ending in the first round. His most recent finish came in the first round of his UFC debut against Wellington Turman, who had just been knocked out by Andrew Sanchez in the first round of his previous fight. Turman went 0 for 10 on his relentless takedown attempts, as Silva spent the entire round defending submissions and trying to remain on his feet. Near the end of the round, Silva was able to shake Turman off his back and impressively knock him out as Silva posted up from his knees as Turman lay on his back with a loose open guard.
That win in his debut followed a 31 month layoff, after Silva had originally been scheduled to make his debut against Deron Winn back in June 2019, but failed a drug test and was suspended for two years after testing positive for steroids.
Silva currently holds a 20-6 pro record and has only been to three decisions in 26 pro fights. All 17 of his finishes have come by KO, while all five of his early losses have come by submission—well he also has one DQ loss for an illegal upkick back in 2011, but whatever. He’s won all three of the decisions he’s been to, which occurred in 2011, 2015 and 2016. Of his 17 KO wins, 12 have come in the first round, four have come in the second and one occurred in the fourth round of a five round M-1 fight. Three of his four second round knockouts came very early in his career and 11 of his last 13 KO wins have occurred in R1.
While Silva looks incredibly prone to being taken down and is also very vulnerable to being submitted, he’s impressively won 15 of his last 16 fights dating back to 2012, with his only loss during that stretch coming in a 2016 R2 Kimura. We still expect Silva to have major issues with advanced grapplers in the UFC, but we’re not sure his next opponent actually falls into that category.
Andrew Sanchez
10th UFC Fight (5-4)Coming off a R3 TKO loss against a really tough Makhmud Muradov, Sanchez was unable to get the fight to the ground on two attempts and looked outmatched on the feet. Muradov led in significant strikes 79-48 before finishing Sanchez midway through the third round.
Prior to that loss, Sanchez landed his first early win in the UFC in what was his 8th fight with the organization. Sanchez's previous four UFC wins had all come by decision, however, all seven of his pre-UFC wins ended early, with two submissions and five KOs. He beat Khalil Rountree in a smothering decision in his UFC debut, where he notched 12 minutes of control time in the 15 minute fight. He followed that up with another decision win over Trevor Smith. Then he was knocked out in the third round in back to back fights against Anthony Smith and Ryan Janes.
He bounced back from the pair of losses with another pair of decision wins, this time over Markus Perez and Marc-Andre Barriault. Then he had a tough matchup against Marvin Vettori, but showed his durability as he fought to a decision loss. He followed that up by knocking out Wellington Turner in the first round, who then immediately went on to get knocked out by Bruno Silva in the first round of his next fight. Then Sanchez was most recently knocked out himself.
Sanchez has a wrestling background and was a two-time national champion in college. He averages 1.9 takedowns per 15 minutes and it would make sense for him to look to take this fight to the ground, but his 31% career takedown accuracy could make it somewhat challenging to get it there.
While Sanchez appears fairly durable, four of his last five losses have come by KO, with the last three of those ending in R3. He’s now 12-6 as a pro, with six wins by KO, two by submission and four decisions. Four of his career losses have ended in knockouts with the other two going the distance. Sanchez has failed to land a takedown in his last three fights and only has two in his last five. While he has a wrestling background, he historically has not been much of a submission threat, with his only two submission wins coming in his first two pro fights back in 2012, both by R1 Rear-Naked Choke.
Fight Prediction:
Sanchez will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 74” reach.
This initially looked like the perfect opportunity for Sanchez to bounce back from his recent loss with a grappling heavy submission win, but that line of thinking appears flawed for a few reasons. First, Sanchez hasn’t landed a takedown in his last three fights and owns just a 31% career takedown accuracy. While Silva looked very vulnerable to being taken down and submitted in his pre-UFC tape, he managed to defend all 10 of Wellington Turman’s takedown attempts in his recent UFC debut. And yes, Turman now has just a 22% career takedown accuracy in five UFC fights, but he was at least able to take down three of those opponents two or more times. Further making us question Sanchez’s ability to land a submission here, he hasn’t submitted anybody since his second pro fight back in 2012 and his only finish of any kind since 2015 came in a R1 KO against a chinless Wellington Turman. So while this still superficially sets up as a great time for Sanchez to return to his wrestling roots and potentially land a submission, the deeper we dug on Sanchez, the less excited we became about the chances of it actually happening. Still, in the end this fight likely comes down to whether or not Sanchez is able to get it to the ground. If he can get Silva down, we like him to either grind out a grappling-heavy decision or land a submission, but if he can’t then he’ll likely get knocked out again.
Our favorite bets here are “Silva Wins by KO” at +125, “Silva Wins by R1 KO” at +370, “Sanchez Wins by Submission” at +950 and “Sanchez Wins by R1 Submission” at +2600.
DFS Implications:
Silva scored 102 DraftKings points and 141 points on FanDuel in his recent R1 KO in his UFC debut, as he stretched his streak of knockout wins to five. We didn’t get to see much of his standup game in the match as he spent the entire fight defending submission attempts and takedowns. So while the finish was impressive, he still remains more or less of an unknown at the UFC level. He clearly has power in his hands as he landed a knockout off his knees, and his takedown defense looked somewhat improved, especially his ability to get right back up after almost getting controlled on the ground, but it was hard to take away much else from that fight. Nevertheless, he’s won 15 of his last 16 fights and has only been to three decisions in 26 pro matches. Of his 20 wins, 17 have come by KO, with 12 of those ending in R1. He clearly has massive KO upside and Sanchez has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. Sanchez’ 31% career takedown accuracy should further boost Silva’s FanDuel score, and he looks like an especially good play over there. The odds imply Silva has a 58% chance to win, a 40% chance to get a finish and a 19% chance it comes in the first round.
With just one early win in nine UFC fights, Sanchez generally isn’t one to score well in DFS, but did notch 116 DraftKings points in his last victory, which also happened to be his only finish with the organization. His wrestling background generally makes him more appealing on DraftKings than on FanDuel, but if he was ever going to land another submission, this would be the time as Silva has been submitted in five of his six career losses. The only time Sanchez has ever scored well in a decision was back in his 2016 UFC debut where he finished with six takedowns and 12 minutes of control time and scored 111 DraftKings points. Since then, he’s put up totals of 61, 79, and 86 DraftKings points in his most recent three decision wins. So there’s a slight chance he can score well in a grappling-heavy decision, but more likely than not he needs a finish to be useful. The odds imply he has a 42% chance to win, a 22% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #5
Ludovit Klein
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a close low-volume decision loss that probably should have gone his way, Klein suffered his first loss in his last nine fights at the hands of Michael Trizano, who outlanded Klein 56-45 in significant strikes and 91-50 in total strikes, while Klein landed 4 of his 7 takedown attempts with three and a half minutes of control time. The deciding factor may have been that Klein wasn’t able to do much of anything on the ground with the takedowns as the fight was close on the feet. Trizano was able to maintain forward pressure throughout the fight, which appeared to give Klein trouble in setting up his patented left high kick that everyone seemingly now knows to look out for. That was just the second decision Klein has been to in 20 pro fights, with the first coming in a 2018 victory. The last time he went the distance he immediately bounced back with a R1 KO win in his next fight for what it’s worth.
Prior to the recent loss, Klein landed a 76 second R1 KO in his short notice UFC debut. He did notably miss weight by 4 lb for that fight, which drew the ire of Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya due to the fact that it was his teammate Shane Young on the wrong end of the knockout. Klein is known for his violent left head kick and showed why in his debut as he landed one flush to the face of Shane Young and then followed it up with a flurry of punches to put Young out. Despite that fight ending so quickly, you could see how patient Klein is as he stalks his prey to time his kill shots.
Klein is now 17-3 as a pro, with 16 of his 17 wins and 2 of his 3 losses all ending early. Eight of his wins have come by KO and eight by submission, but his last seven finishes have all ended in knockouts, while his submission wins occurred earlier in his career—including six in his first six pro fights. Nine of his 16 finishes notably occured in the first round. His two career losses also occurred in round one—both in 2017—one by KO and the other by submission. So despite his patient striking, his fights more often than not end in the first five minutes.
In his last fight before joining the UFC, he knocked his opponent down in R1 with a vicious head kick and then finished him with hammer punches. In the fight prior to that, he knocked his opponent out cold with another high kick and then it was more of the same in his recent debut. So you can see why there’s so much buzz about his devastating head kicks.
After missing weight by 4 lb for his September 2020 UFC debut, Klein made the mark in his most recent fight, but he’s still a guy you want to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Nate Landwehr
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Looking to bounce back from a quick R1 TKO stoppage loss in February 2021, Landwehr was finished by Julian Erosa in just 56 seconds. Erosa dropped Landwehr with a flying knee and the ref immediately stopped the action, despite Landwehr popping back up to his feet in protest. Landwehr had then been scheduled to face Makwan Amirkhani in June 2021, but ended up withdrawing due to an injury.
After getting knocked out in R1 by Herburt Burns in his January 2020 UFC debut, Landwehr bounced back with a decision win in a bloody brawl against Darren Elkins. Elkins actually outlanded Landwehr 121-118, but went 1 for 13 on his takedowns attempts and left with substantially less blood than he came with. It did seem like Elkins won the third round, so it was a little surprising to see that two of the judges scored it 30-27 for Landwehr. Then again, when are we not surprised by the scorecards?
While Landwehr’s takedown defense was solid against Elkins (33% career takedown accuracy), that fight was so sloppy the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Also, Elkins seemed to land his first takedown of the match without too much trouble before things got crazy. Burns was also easily able to get Landwehr down on his only takedown attempt and nearly submitted him in their fight, before knocking him out.
Landwehr is 14-4 as a pro and won seven fights in a row just before joining the UFC. However, he’s now lost two of his last three and has been finished with knees in the first round in each of those losses. His third most recent loss also came early, in a 2015 R2 Rear-Naked Choke. His only other career loss came in a decision in his third pro fight back in 2013. Of his 14 wins, eight have come by KO and six have ended in decisions. Five of his eight career KO victories have notably come in the second round, while he also has two R1 KOs and one in R3.
Overall, Landwehr is a psychotic zombie brawler who has no interest in rolling on the mat as he’s yet to even attempt a takedown in the UFC. He lands the third highest average number of significant strikes on the slate at 7.02/min, while absorbing the most on the slate at 7.67/min.
Fight Prediction:
Landwehr will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach.
Klein looks to be the quicker and more explosive striker, while Landwehr is more aggressive and is constantly looking to take part in bloody brawls. Landwehr’s aggression should give Klein plenty of opportunities to land fight-ending strikes, but it’s also possible that Landwehr is able to crowd the kicker to the point that it turns into more of a boxing match at close range as Landwehr would prefer. Klein lacked the aggression to get the win in his last fight, so we expect him to turn it up a notch here. Both guys have been finished in the majority of their losses, and we don’t expect to see this go the distance, but if it does, it’s possible Landwehr can win a volume driven decision purely based on his striking output. The more likely result will be for Klein to get another early finish as Landwehr should have a tough time keeping up with the speed of Klein.
We wish the lines were a little wider here, but our top bets are “Klein R1 KO” at +210, “Klein R1 Win” at +170 and “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +400.
DFS Implications:
Klein is lethal with his head kicks, but his patient fighting style is far from ideal for DFS scoring and leaves him reliant on landing a R1 finish to return value when you account for his price. He’s generally not going to be the guy to fill up a box score as he’s more of a sniper with his finishes. Working in his favor, he does get a favorable matchup here for landing more strikes as Landwehr leads the slate in average significant strikes absorbed at 7.67/min. Landwehr has also lost by R1 KO in two of his three UFC fights, which is obviously encouraging for Klein’s chances to get another early finish. We expect Klein to possess a speed advantage, so if he can at least somewhat control the distance he should have the opportunity to land some clean shots. It’s just always hard to rely on a first round finish, and Klein once again projects to be a popular play in tournaments. So we’re always interested in comparing his projected ownership to his chances of landing a first round finish. It is possible that he still scores decently with a second round finish, but at that point he’s more reliant on the other top priced fighters not going off. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 50% chance to get a finish and a 29% chance it comes in R1.
Landwehr is a high-volume brawler who basks in blood and crows for carnage. While his last two wins both ended in decisions, eight of his 14 career victories have ended in KOs. Klein has been knocked out once in his career, which came in the first round of a 2017 fight, but overall this looks like an extremely tough matchup for Landwehr. Klein’s patient striking will likely leave Landwehr reliant on a finish to score well, as he doesn’t add anything in the grappling department and we don’t see him landing enough volume to get there on striking alone. With that said, his cheap price tag could allow him to serve as a value play even with an average scoring decision victory if we see another favorite heavy slate, so it’s hard to completely write-off any underdogs with a pulse. Landwehr’s fighting style lends itself more to the FanDuel scoring system than DraftKings, so we do slightly prefer him over there. The odds imply Landwehr has a 24% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 5% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #4
Manon Fiorot
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)This fight had originally been scheduled for September 25th, but was rescheduled due to COVID protocols.
Fiorot exploded onto the UFC scene in 2021 with a pair of R2 TKO wins in her first two fights with the organization. Appropriately nicknamed “The Beast,” Fiorot is a savage on the feet but we also need to point out that she just defeated two highly questionable opponents who were both making their respective UFC debuts. The most recent win came against Tabatha Ricci, who accepted the fight up a weight class on short notice. Prior to that, Fiorot defeated a debuting Victoria Leonardo, who’s now 0-2 in the UFC with both losses coming in the second round.
So the only real knock on Fiorot is that she hasn’t faced any opponents with much experience. Here are the records of her opponents coming into her fights: 0-1 (L), 3-7, 4-1, 5-3, 2-2, 6-1, 8-2 and 5-0. However, it should also be noted that she had a pretty legit amateur career as she made her way through the 2017 IMMAF World Championships, which she won.
Fiorot puts on a furious striking pace and leads the slate in average number of significant strikes landed at 8.00/min. Amazingly she’s only absorbed 1.98 SS/min (4th fewest on the slate). Fiorot also landed one takedown in each of her UFC fights, but she’s really just a striker and we don’t expect much from her on the mat. If anyone is ever actually able to take her down it will be interesting to see how she looks on her back.
After losing her 2018 pro debut in a split-decision up at 138 lb, Fiorot dropped down to 125 lb and has now won seven straight with six KOs and one decision to bring her record to 7-1. Her last five wins have all come by KO with the last four ending in the first two rounds, including three in round two.
Fiorot’s karate fighting style makes her a tough opponent to deal with as she does a masterful job of controlling distance. She also utilizes a destructive check right hook as she backs out of striking range against her opponents. She offers explosive combinations of punches to close out fights, reminiscent of vintage Vitor Belfort. Fiorot has a bright future and we see her as a serious contender in the women’s Flyweight division before long.
Mayra Bueno Silva
5th UFC Fight (2-1-1)Bueno Silva is coming off a draw against Montana De La Rosa where she was deducted a point in the first round for a blatant fence grab. Bueno Silva led the fight in significant strikes 52-30 and total strikes 111-107, while De La Rosa went 3 for 12 on takedowns and amassed over nine minutes of control time. Had it not been for the point deduction Bueno Silva would have come out ahead, but she clearly prevented a takedown with the fence grab so it could have changed how the fight went.
Despite her last three wins coming by R1 submission, Bueno Silva has yet to even attempt a takedown in the UFC. Five of her seven career wins have come by submission, with four of those ending in Armbars and one with a Ninja Choke. So in general her submissions have been more defensive. She also has one career KO win, which occurred in her second pro fight back in 2016, and one decision win, which came in a 2017 five-round split decision. Her only career loss was a 2020 decision against Maryna Moroz in her second UFC fight. All six of her career finishes occurred in the first round and she’s never been finished herself.
Bueno Silva got her shot in the UFC after she landed a 62 second R1 submission win on DWCS back in 2018. She then followed that up with another R1 submission win in her 2018 UFC debut against a tough grappler in Gillian Robertson, who has never been submitted outside of that.
However, due to a pair of knee surgeries, Silva was forced to take a year and a half off following the win over Robertson. When she returned in 2020, she suffered her first career loss in a high-volume brawl against Maryna Moroz that ended in a decision. Bueno Silva showed off her striking in that fight, but also showed a questionable striking defense, as she absorbed 139 significant strikes in 15 minutes.
Fight Prediction:
Fiorot will have a 1” height advantage, but Bueno Silva will have a 1” reach advantage.
This sets up as one of the best fights on the card between two dangerous strikers. Bueno Silva also has her submission game to fall back on, but considering she’s never shot for a takedown in the UFC, Fiorot would be wise to keep this fight standing. Fiorot is more of a karate style kicker while Bueno Silva likes to make fights ugly, throwing knees and elbows out of the clinch and she relies more on her boxing. While we like Fiorot to win this fight, Bueno Silva is so much tougher than Fiorot’s first two opponents that this will be a good test for her, and has the potential to shine light on any flaws in her game. Neither of these two have ever been finished in their careers as they both enter with 7-1 pro records, although Bueno Silva also has a draw added on at the end of her record. It wouldn’t be shocking to see this go the distance in a FOTN type brawl, but they’re also both such dangerous finishers that a finish is still just as likely. Bueno Silva is most dangerous grabbing an arm in R1 and forcing opponents to tap, so as long as Fiorot can avoid getting submitted, we like her to win with either a mid-to-late KO or in a high-volume decision. You won’t want to miss this fight.
Our favorite bets here are “Fiorot Wins by KO” at +160, “Fiorot Wins by R2 KO” at +700 and “Bueno Silva Wins by R1 Submission” at +1800. You can also consider “Fiorot Wins by R3 KO” at +950.
DFS Implications:
Fiorot is a high-volume striker, who averages the most significant strikes landed on the slate at 8.00/min, while absorbing just 1.98/min (4th fewest on the slate). She comes into this matchup on a seven fight winning streak, with knockouts in her last five fights, with the last four ending in the first two rounds. She dominated her first two UFC opponents, finishing both with second round TKOs. She scored 120 and 100 DraftKings points in those wins and 146 and 116 points on FanDuel. While we absolutely love Fiorot as a fighter and she appears to have the potential to compete at the top of the division, we’ve yet to see her face an actual UFC caliber opponent or even any real adversity since joining the organization. She’ll now get a much tougher opponent in Bueno Silva, so it will be interesting to see if Fiorot can be just as dominant. So while we love Fiorot, this does have some of the makings for a let down spot in terms of living up to the expectations she’s set for herself. She also projects to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate, so there’s leverage to be gained by fading her. With that said, Bueno Silva has yet to attempt a takedown in four UFC fights and we like Fiorot to win a high-volume striking battle if this remains on the feet so it’s a tricky spot for tournaments. The odds imply Fiorot has a 68% chance to win, a 34% chance to get a finish and a 17% chance it ends in R1.
Bueno Silva was so hyper efficient in her two R1 UFC wins that she only scored 95 and 91 DraftKings points respectively, and 118 and 109 FanDuel points. In her lone UFC fight to make it out of the first round, Bueno Silva was outlanded 139-88 by Maryna Moroz, who also won the takedown battle 2-0 and amassed four and half minutes of control time, en route to an impressive 111 point DraftKings performance of her own in the decision win. We’re expecting a high-volume brawl here, but Bueno Silva also notably has six career first round finishes, with five of those ending in submissions. So if this fight somehow ends up on the mat—in spite of the fact that Bueno Silva has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC—she’s always dangerous to finish opponents with Armbars. So with the chance to either get another first round finish or compete in a high-volume brawl, it’s hard to see Bueno Silva not returning value at her cheap price tag with a win. She also makes for an interesting leverage play going against one of the most popular fighters on the card, but she certainly has her work cutout for her. The odds imply she has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #3
Jim Miller
38th UFC Fight (21-15, NC)Now 38-years old, Miller is coming off a pair of decision losses and has now dropped three of his last four fights—all by decision. He’s just 4-8 in his last 12 fights, although all four of those wins came by R1 submission, while six of the eight losses ended in decisions. The only two people to finish him during that time were Charles Oliveira (2018 R1 Rear-Naked Choke) and Dan Hooker (2018 R1 KO). The only other people to finish Miller in his career are Michael Chiesa (2015 R2 Rear-Naked Choke), Donald Cerrone (2014 R2 KO) and Nate Diaz (2012 R2 Guillotine Choke), while his other 11 career losses have all gone the distance.
This will amazingly be his 38th UFC fight (or 37th if you don’t count the NC) after he originally joined the UFC back in 2008. Looking at his entire career, Miller turned pro in 2005, three years before he made his UFC debut and this will be his 50th pro fight. He’s currently 32-16 plus a No Contest, with 22 of those wins coming early, including 4 KOs and 18 submissions. He has two KO losses, three by submission and 11 decision defeats.
While Miller has four R1 finishes in his last eight fights, he hasn’t landed a finish outside of the first round in the last decade, going all the way back to a R3 KO win in March 2011. And he notably hasn’t won a fight that made it out of the first round since 2016.
We’ve seen Miller get controlled on the ground for over 15 combined minutes in his last two fights, so while he’s always a submission threat on the mat, he tends to tire out after the first round and becomes far less dangerous. His best chance to win this fight will be to land an early submission, by either defending a takedown with an Armbar or Guillotine or landing a takedown himself and likely looking for a Rear-Naked Choke. This sets up as a good matchup for both of those scenarios.
Miller had been scheduled to face a debuting Nikolas Motta last month but Miller tested positive for COVID and was forced to withdraw. Now Miller goes up against another fighter making his UFC debut in Gonzalez and these two didn’t have a ton of time to prepare for one another as the fight was only announced 10 days out.
Erick Gonzalez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut, Gonzalez has won his last two fights with five of his last six matches ending in decisions. However, those haven’t all been 15 minute fights as two of his last four matches were 9 minute fights and a previous match was a single five minute round. So he’s been competing in a variety of formats. His last two losses have both come against current or former UFC fighters, in Humberto Bandenay, who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released, and Rafa Garcia, who’s currently 1-1 with the organization. Gonzalez lost decisions to both guys. Both were three round fights, but the Garcia fight is incorrectly documented as a five rounder on multiple websites.
Looking at his entire career, Gonzalez is now 14-5 with eight wins by KO, one by submission and five decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted twice to go along with three decision losses. He looks pretty sloppy on tape, with both a terrible takedown defense and takedown accuracy. While he often looks to get fights to the ground, he’s not much of a submission threat and is instead looking to throw elbows and finish fights with ground and pound.
Fight Prediction:
Gonzalez will have a 3” height and reach advantage.
Gonzalez recklessly shoots for takedowns, while also appearing to provide little resistance to being taken down himself, which should both play into Miller’s submission game, as he’s dangerous both off his back or in top position. It would not be shocking at all to see Gonzalez shoot and immediately get caught in a Guillotine or for Miller to look to get the fight to the ground himself and choke Gonzalez out. Both of Gonzalez’s early losses have come by R1 submission, which is also encouraging for Miller’s chances here. While Miller has been struggling recently with tougher opponents, he’s still been able to make short work of less skilled competition and we like his chance to land another first round submission. Obviously his age and cardio are a concern, but more so if the fight makes it past the first round, which we’re betting it won’t.
Our favorite bet here is “Miller Wins by R1 Submission” at +700. You can also consider his overall submission line at +260.
DFS Implications:
Miller hasn’t landed more than two takedowns in any of his last 12 fights and hasn’t topped 58 significant strikes in his last 11. He’s a R1 or bust DFS play, who’s only four wins in his last 12 fights have all ended in R1 submissions. That allows us to essentially ignore any concerns with his age, cardio or the fact that he’s coming off COVID, as we’re only playing him for his ability to land a first round finish anyways. His last four wins have been good for DraftKings scores of 95, 116, 104 and 102, so his tendency to defend takedowns with submission finishes does somewhat lower his DraftKings scoring potential compared to other potential first round finishers on the slate. He’s fared a little better on FanDuel with scores of 106, 106, 121 and 120, so unlike most grapplers, he actually looks like a slightly better FanDuel play compared to DraftKings. Keeping in mind the idea that we’re just playing Miller for his R1 finishing ability, the odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 29% chance to get a finish and a 15% chance it comes in R1. Considering he hasn’t won a fight that made it out of the first round since 2016, it’s a little surprising his moneyline odds and R1 odds aren’t at least a little bit closer.
Gonzalez didn’t do much to impress us on tape as his takedown attempts looked sloppy, he was easily ground by his opponents and his striking looked average. The best thing he has going for him is that he’s facing a 38-year-old opponent who’s a month removed from testing positive for COVID and hasn’t won a fight that made it past the first round in five years. So theoretically if Gonzalez can survive the first round he should have a chance to win this fight, at least on paper. Just keep in mind that Miller has been facing much tougher competition, and this will be a big step down for him as he takes on a UFC newcomer. Gonzalez shoots for enough takedowns that he appears to be a better DraftKings play compared to FanDuel, but each of those takedown attempts also represents a chance for him to get submitted, so you’ll be holding your breath if you play him. Miller’s last three losses have all ended in decisions, and even if Gonzalez does win he’s still not guaranteed to return value even at his cheaper price tag. With that said, he still remains more or less of an unknown, so this is somewhat of a high variance spot between a struggling/aging UFC vet and a newcomer to the organization who’s trying to prove himself. That alone is probably enough reason to sprinkle Gonzalez into a small portion of your tournament lineups, especially on DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #2
Andrei Arlovski
36th UFC Fight (20-14, NC)The 42-year-old Arlovski bounced back from a February 2021 R2 Submission loss to Tom Aspinall with a decision win over Chase Sherman most recently. Arlovski topped 100 significant strikes for just the second time in 35 UFC fights as he outlanded Sherman 105-88 in significant strikes in a fight that unsurprisingly stayed entirely on the feet. Arlovski was able to chew up Sherman’s leg and take over in the later rounds.
In his last 29 fights over the course of the last decade, the only people to knock Arlovski out are Stipe Miocic (2016 R1), Alistair Overeem (2016 R2), Francis Ngannou (2017 R1), and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2019 R1). Since the 2017 R1 KO against Ngannou, the only time he’s been knocked out in his last 13 fights was against Rozenstruik. He’s fought to 11 decisions over that same time period leading up to his recent submission loss. Arlovski won 6 of those 11 decisions, including the last four.
This will amazingly be his 54th pro fight, although two of those were overturned to No Contests, so his official record sits at 31-20. Arlovski originally joined the UFC in 2000, but left the organization in 2008, before returning in 2014. He won his first four fights back in 2014 and 2015, including a pair of R1 knockouts, but has since gone 6-10 plus a No Contest, which was really a decision loss.
Arlovski has really struggled with the top guys in the division, but has been able to take his non-elite opponents to decisions and has quietly been on a bit of a run as he’s gone 4-2 in his last six fights.
Carlos Felipe
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off back-to-back split decision wins, Felipe has narrowly been escaping with victories, with the general consensus being that his fat man bravado is swaying the judges. Felipe was outlanded in both of those recent fights and it wasn’t even close in his most recent match, as Jake Collier outstruck him 130-94. Collier led all three rounds in striking with totals of 42-25, 34-28 and 54-41, and it’s hard to see how judges Chris Lee and Dennis O’Connell thought Felipe won two of those rounds. You have to imagine that the pendulum will eventually swing in the other direction, and we’re not looking to bet on Felipe continuing to steal decisions.
After starting his pro career off 8-0 with six R1 KOs, Felipe lost a decision in his July 2020 UFC debut against a tough Sergey Spivak, who exposed Felipe’s non-existent ground game. However, Felipe bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Yorgan De Castro followed by the previously mentioned pair of split-decision victories. Felipe’s split-decision win over Tafa was pretty close and could have gone either way, as Tafa led in significant strikes 86-77 and total strikes 109-77, but Felipe appeared to do a little more damage. However, the win over Collier was a clear robbery.
Prior to making his UFC debut, Felipe hadn’t fought in three and a half years, as he was handed a two-year suspension after testing positive for steroids in 2017. We’ve notably yet to see him knock anyone out since he got off the juice. He’s now 11-1 as a pro with six KOs and five submission wins. His only career loss came by decision in his UFC debut.
Fight Prediction:
Arlovski will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, but Felipe is notably 16 years younger than the 42-year-old veteran.
There’s only one way we see this fight playing out, which is in a three-round decision where Arlovski leads in strikes but Felipe keeps it close. Neither guy should be looking for a takedown unless Arlovski gets desperate, and we would be very surprised to see it end early. We like Arlovski to get the nod in a decision, but Felipe has won two split-decisions in a row where he trailed in significant strikes, so you never know what fight the judges are watching.
Our favorite two bets here are “Arlovski Wins by Decision” at +195 and “Fight Goes the Distance” at -152.
DFS Implications:
Arlovski landed the second highest number of significant strikes in his career in his last fight and still scored just 74 DraftKings points and 83 points on FanDuel. His last four wins have totaled 74, 44, 50 and 94 DraftKings points and it’s really tough for him to put up a usable score without landing a finish, something he hasn’t done in his last 18 fights dating back to 2015. Arlovski is a little more interesting on FanDuel where despite waiting until Friday to release the slate they priced him below Felipe, despite being the favorite in this matchup. Take a bow, FanDuel. So we understand looking to plug him in as a value play over there, but he looks to be reliant on landing a finish to be useful on DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.
Felipe has similarly shown he needs a finish to put up a decent DFS score, with DK/FD totals of 68/79, 62/72, 66/70 and 18/38 (L) in his four UFC fights, which all ended in decisions. He’s your prototypical R1 or bust Heavyweight, with no grappling stats to boost his DFS scores. While he lands a decent amount of strikes, volume alone is unlikely to be enough for him to score well in a decision unless we see multiple knockdowns landed, which is very unlikely considering Felipe has yet to land a single knockdown in four UFC fights and Arlovski has only been knocked down once in his last nine fights. The odds imply Felipe has a 48% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and just a 11% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #1
Aspen Ladd
6th UFC Fight (4-1)After failing to make weight down at 135 lb two weeks ago, Ladd is now filling in on short notice after Holly Holm dropped out of this fight a week and half ago. This will be Ladd’s first pro Featherweight fight, but she did compete at 145 lb once as an amateur in a 2013 decision win.
Ladd’s last four fights have now all been canceled, so she hasn’t competed since December 2019. She was scheduled to face Julianna Pena in March 2020, but Pena withdrew citing an injury. Then Ladd was booked against Sara McMann in June 2020, but Ladd tore her ACL and MCL and the fight was obviously canceled. After recovering from the knee injury, Ladd was scheduled to face Macy Chiasson twice, but Chiasson withdrew from a July event citing an injury and then Ladd was most recently forced to withdraw due to the botched weight cut. So prior to the most recent cancelation, it’s hard to put much blame on Ladd for the fights falling through.
Regardless, it’s now been 22 months since Ladd last fought, but she’s still just 26 years old. Her last fight ended in a R3 TKO win against Yana Kunitskaya in what had been a close fight leading up to that point. The only loss of Ladd’s career came in her second most recent fight in a curiously quick stoppage against Germaine de Randamie in July 2019. De Randamie dropped Ladd with a right cross just 16 seconds into the first round, but Ladd landed on all fours and clearly wasn’t out. As De Randamie went in to land ground and pound, Herb Dean immediately stopped the fight without giving Ladd a chance to recover.
Prior to the loss Ladd had been undefeated, with an 8-0 pro record and wins in her first three UFC matches. She’s now 9-1, with six KO wins and one submission to go along with two decisions. Four of her five UFC fights have ended in TKOs (3-1), while the only time she’s seen the judges with the organization was in a decision victory over Sijara Eubanks. That was actually the second time those two had squared off, as it was a rematch of an earlier Invicta fight that also ended in a decision win for Ladd. Eubanks, who’s never been finished and has gone the distance in 10 of her 12 pro fights, remains the only person to ever take Ladd to a decision.
After starting her pro career at 125 lb, Ladd moved up to 135 lb in 2016 in her third pro fight, where she has stayed up until now. She averages a respectable 5.22 significant strikes per minute (4th highest on the slate), while absorbing 4.84 per minute (6th highest on the slate). She also lands an average of 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and holds a 75% takedown accuracy and a 66% defense. The only fighter to take her down in the UFC has been Sijara Eubanks (46% career takedown accuracy), who did so twice on five attempts. However, only one of Ladd’s other four UFC opponents even attempted a takedown, which was Tonya Evinger (30% career takedown accuracy), who went 0 for 1.
Ladd is great at getting opponents to the mat and beating them up with ground and pound. In fact, all three of her UFC KO wins have come via ground and pound and once she gets going on the mat she sounds like a Chihuahua choking on a chew toy as she hammers away at her opponents. She does have the ability to go for submissions and notably finished with three official submission attempts against Sijara Eubanks, but she only has one submission win on her record and she really specializes in ground and pound.
Norma Dumont
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off an underwhelming split-decision win over Felicia Spencer, Dumont finished ahead in significant strikes 68-47 and in total strikes 88-70, while landing 1 of her 3 takedown attempts. Neither lady was overly impressive in the fight, but Spencer was especially tentative and surprisingly finished with zero official takedown attempts after attempting 19 in her previous four fights—and two of those ended in quick first round wins. So we never really got to see Spencer test the takedown defense of Dumont, which remains at 100% but has only been tested three times—once by Megan Anderson (25% takedown career accuracy) and twice by Ashlee Evans-Smith (23% takedown career accuracy).
That win over Spencer was actually Dumont’s first career win at the 145 lb weight class after she lost her first fight at 145 lb in a R1 KO against Megan Anderson in Dumont’s February 2020 UFC debut. Dumont only had four pro fights before joining the UFC, with three taking place at 134 lb and one occurring at a 141 lb Catchweight. She won all four of those fights befores suffering her only career loss against Anderson. Dumont then attempted to drop back down to 135 lb, but missed the mark badly, tipping the scales at 139.5 lb. Despite the weight miss, Dumont won a decision over a bad and potentially injured Ashlee Evans Smith. Dumont was then scheduled to face UFC Flyweight newcomer Erin Blanchfield back in April 2021, but Dumont again weighed in at 139.5 lb and the fight was canceled as Blanchfield was already fighting up a weight class before the miss. Dumont finally gave up on making 135 lb when she recently defeated Spencer up at 145 lb, where this next fight will also be. There was a period of time where it looked like the 145 lb division was dead, but now these two weight missers will try to keep it alive along with the support of Amanda Nunes and the potential future signing of Kayla Harrison.
Dumont is now 6-1 as a pro with two submission wins and four decisions. However, the submissions notably came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 0-2. Her only career loss was the R1 KO in her UFC debut. She’s a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in Sanda, which is a form of Chinese kickboxing, so she’s pretty well rounded.
Fight Prediction:
Dumont will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This is an interesting matchup between two fighters who have each had recent struggles on the scale trying to make 135 lb and are now squaring off up at 145 lb. One difference is that Dumont has two pro fights at 145 lb, including her most recent fight, whereas Ladd is fighting up at 145 lb for the first time as a pro and tried to hit 135 lb just two weeks ago. It’s hard to know how much of an impact cutting weight twice in two weeks will have, but it’s just one of many variables at play here. A major key to this fight will be whether or not Ladd is able to be the first person to take Dumont down in the UFC, as Dumont has so far defended all three of the takedowns attempted against her since joining the organization. That’s one area where moving up a weight class on short notice could potentially be a problem for Ladd. Interestingly, Ladd has only outlanded one of her five UFC opponents in significant strikes, so if she can’t get the fight to the mat to look for another ground and pound finish, then Dumont has a decent chance of outlanding her on the feet. With that said, both ladies land a good amount of striking volume with Ladd averaging 5.22 SSL/min and Dumont averaging 4.98 SSL/min. But where we see a bigger discrepancy is in significant strikes absorbed, where Ladd averages 4.84 SSA/min, while Dumont averages just 2.86 SSA/min. We prefer Ladd’s side of things, but she clearly has several factors working against her that make it tough to be completely confident in her. To quickly summarize the areas of concern with Ladd, she’s coming off a knee injury, hasn’t fought in 22 months, is moving up a weight class for the first time, took the fight on short notice, had a terrible weight cut just two weeks ago and is generally reliant on getting fights to the mat but is now going against an opponent with a relatively untested 100% takedown defense. So yeah, several things to worry about. With all that said, whoever controls the grappling exchanges likely wins this fight, but both ladies can throw heat and they each have one R1 KO loss on their record, which are the only times either of them have ever lost a fight.
Our favorite bets here are “Fight Ends in KO” at +160 and “Ladd Wins by KO” at +300. If you want to throw a dart at something you can consider Ladd’s R2 or R3 KO lines at +1400 and +1800 respectively.
DFS Implications:
In her four UFC wins, Ladd has posted DK/FD totals of 99/102 (R3 KO), 88/103 (DEC), 115/133 (R1 KO) and 95/97 (R2 KO). Her lone decision win was bolstered on FanDuel by three submission attempts or else it would have scored exactly 88 points on both DFS sites. However, if we extend that pace over the course of five rounds it would be good for 127 DraftKings points and 159 points on FanDuel. Ladd generally does a good job of landing takedowns and controlling her opponents as she batters them with ground and pound and she has averaged 44.22% control time over her last four fights. At her reasonable price tag, we expect Ladd to end up in winning lineups with a victory here, regardless of whether it comes from an early finish or in a decision. The odds imply she has a 55% chance to win, a 32% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.
Dumont scored 103 DraftKings points and 106 points on FanDuel in first UFC decision win, as she filled up the stat sheet, but only scored 69 DraftKings points and 67 points on FanDuel in her most recent decision victory. Still, if we extend those recent stats over the course of five rounds, we’re looking at 94 DraftKings points and 98 points on FanDuel, which at her reduced price tag would likely still be enough, especially on DraftKings. Also keep in mind that last fight was pretty slow paced, and we expect more action in this next one. Dumont also didn’t have to defend any takedowns in her last match, which shouldn’t be the case on Saturday as Ladd averages three attempts per 15 minutes. With so many unknowns on Ladd’s side (knee/weight switch/short notice/Dumont TDD, etc.) it makes sense to have solid exposure to both fighters in this one. We expect the winner to end up in optimal lineups, so this isn't a main event we’re looking to get cute with. The odds imply Dumont has a 45% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in R1.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
We recently partnered with PrizePicks, who offer a new way to play DFS. Instead of competing against other users, you simply pick the over/under on two or more fighters' stat lines (i.e. fight time or fantasy points scored). Receive up to a $100 deposit bonus when you sign up with our promo code: MMADFS
TOP PRIZE PICKS PLAYS FOR UFC THIS WEEK:
- Felipe Over 70.5 Significant Strikes
- Klein Under 8.5 Minutes Fight Time
- Klein Over 96.5 Fantasy Pts
- Emeev Under 90.5 Fanatsy Pts
- Emeev Under 46.5 Significant Strikes
